Memphis Center for Reprod. Health v. Herbert Slatery, III ( 2021 )


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    Pursuant to Sixth Circuit I.O.P. 32.1(b)
    File Name: 21a0215p.06
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE SIXTH CIRCUIT
    ┐
    MEMPHIS CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE HEALTH;
    │
    PLANNED PARENTHOOD OF TENNESSEE AND NORTH
    │
    MISSISSIPPI; KNOXVILLE CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE
    │
    HEALTH; FEMHEALTH USA, INC., d/b/a carafem; DR.
    │         No. 20-5969
    KIMBERLY LOONEY; DR. NIKKI ZITE,                             >
    Plaintiffs-Appellees,         │
    │
    │
    v.                                                   │
    │
    HERBERT H. SLATERY, III; LISA PIERCEY, M.D.; RENE           │
    SAUNDERS, M.D., W. REEVES JOHNSON, JR., M.D.;               │
    AMY P. WEIRICH; GLENN R. FUNK; CHARME P. ALLEN;             │
    TOM P. THOMPSON, JR.,                                       │
    Defendants-Appellants.          │
    ┘
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee at Nashville.
    No. 3:20-cv-00501—William Lynn Campbell, Jr., District Judge.
    Argued: April 29, 2021
    Decided and Filed: September 10, 2021
    Before: DAUGHTREY, MOORE, and THAPAR, Circuit Judges.
    _________________
    COUNSEL
    ARGUED: Sarah K. Campbell, OFFICE OF THE TENNESSEE ATTORNEY GENERAL,
    Nashville, Tennessee, for Appellants. Rabia Muqaddam, CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE
    RIGHTS, New York, New York, for Appellees. ON BRIEF: Sarah K. Campbell, OFFICE OF
    THE TENNESSEE ATTORNEY GENERAL, Nashville, Tennessee, for Appellants. Rabia
    Muqaddam, Jessica Sklarsky, Jen Samantha D. Rasay, CENTER FOR REPRODUCTIVE
    RIGHTS, New York, New York, Thomas H. Castelli, AMERICAN CIVIL LIBERTIES UNION,
    Nashville, Tennessee, Susan Lambiase, PLANNED PARENTHOOD FEDERATION OF
    AMERICA, New York, New York, Brigitte Amiri, Andrew Beck, AMERICAN CIVIL
    LIBERTIES UNION FOUNDATION, New York, New York, for Appellees. David E. Fowler,
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 2
    CONSTITUTIONAL GOVERNMENT DEFENSE FUND, Franklin, Tennessee, Michelle K.
    Terry, AMERICAN CENTER FOR LAW & JUSTICE, Franklin, Tennessee, Edward L. White
    III, AMERICAN CENTER FOR LAW & JUSTICE, Ann Arbor, Michigan, Mathew W.
    Hoffman, ALLIANCE DEFENDING FREEDOM, Ashburn, Virginia, John J. Bursch,
    ALLIANCE DEFENDING FREEDOM, Washington, D.C., S. Chad Meredith, OFFICE OF THE
    KENTUCKY ATTORNEY GENERAL, Frankfort, Kentucky, Priscilla J. Smith, YALE LAW
    SCHOOL, Brooklyn, New York, Sarah A. Hunger, OFFICE OF THE ILLINOIS ATTORNEY
    GENERAL, Chicago, Illinois, Janice Mac Avoy, Alexis R. Casamassima, FRIED, FRANK,
    HARRIS, SHRIVER & JACOBSON LLP, New York, New York, Rachel Thorn, Marc Suskin,
    Caroline Pignatelli, Kaitland Kennelly, Ashlesha Srivastava, Allison Kutner, COOLEY LLP,
    New York, New York, Darina Shtrakhman, COOLEY LLP, San Francisco, California, Kelly M.
    Dermody, Tiseme G. Zegeye, Nigar A. Shaikh, LIEFF CABRASER HEIMANN &
    BERNSTEIN, LLP, San Francisco, California, Carles Anderson, SISTERREACH, Memphis,
    Tennessee, Zachary W. Martin, Boston, Massachusetts, Geoffrey M. Wyatt, Washington, D.C.,
    Jon Greenbaum, LAWYERS’ COMMITTEE FOR CIVIL RIGHTS UNDER LAW, Washington,
    D.C., Melissa Cassel, O’MELVENY & MYERS LLP, San Francisco, California, Zhao Liu,
    O’MELVENY & MYERS LLP, Washington, D.C., Stuart M. Sarnoff, Christopher P. Burke,
    O’MELVENY & MYERS, New York, New York, for Amici Curiae.
    DAUGHTREY, J., delivered the opinion of the court in which MOORE, J., joined.
    THAPAR, J. (pp. 36–70), delivered a separate opinion concurring in judgment in part and
    dissenting in part.
    _________________
    OPINION
    _________________
    MARTHA CRAIG DAUGHTREY, Circuit Judge. In the early hours of June 19, 2020,
    the last day of the Tennessee General Assembly’s session, the state legislature passed one of the
    strictest abortion regulations in the country, House Bill 2263. There are two provisions of the
    Act at issue in this appeal. Section 216 criminalizes the performance of pre-viability abortions at
    cascading intervals of two to three weeks, beginning with the detection of a “fetal heartbeat” and
    continuing through a gestational age of 24 weeks. The scheme provides that if any earlier
    restriction is found to be invalid, the others remain in effect. Section 217 criminalizes the
    performance of an abortion if the physician “knows” the reason for the abortion is “because of”
    the race, sex, or a Down syndrome diagnosis of the fetus. Both sections contain an affirmative-
    defense provision when the abortion was performed because, “in the physician’s good faith,
    reasonable medical judgment,” the abortion was necessary to avoid a medical emergency.
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                  Page 3
    Plaintiffs—four reproductive-health centers and two physicians, suing on behalf of themselves
    and their patients—challenged the constitutionality of sections 216 and 217 and requested a
    preliminary injunction. They argued that both sections 216 and 217 substantively violate the
    Due Process Clause of the United States Constitution as an undue burden on pre-viability
    abortions, that section 217 is also void for vagueness, and that the medical-emergency
    affirmative-defense provisions are insufficient because they are unconstitutionally vague. The
    district court evaluated the submitted declarations and arguments and determined that the
    plaintiffs were likely to succeed on the merits of their claims. The court issued a preliminary
    injunction banning implementation of sections 216 and 217 but declined to address the
    substantive due process challenge to section 217 because it found that the section was
    unconstitutional under the void-for-vagueness doctrine. The State1 now appeals the issuance of
    the preliminary injunction, including the legal conclusions and factual findings on which it is
    based, and asks us to address, in the first instance, whether section 217 violates substantive due
    process principles. Because access to pre-viability abortion is a constitutionally protected right,
    we affirm.
    FACTUAL AND PROCEDURAL BACKGROUND
    Plaintiffs—Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, Planned Parenthood of
    Tennessee and North Mississippi, Knoxville Center for Reproductive Health, FemHealth USA,
    Inc., and Drs. Kimberly Looney and Nikki Zite on behalf of themselves and their patients—
    challenge two provisions of Tennessee House Bill 2263/Senate Bill 2196 (H.B. 2263) that
    impose bans or restrictions on certain pre-viability abortions.
    Tennessee General Assembly Enacts House Bill 2263
    The Tennessee General Assembly enacted H.B. 2263 in the early hours of June 19, 2020,
    with the intention of restricting pre-viability abortions; Tennessee has long prohibited abortions
    after viability.     
    Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 39-15-201
    (b)(1), -211(b), -212(a).                     The challenged
    1
    The State, collectively, includes Attorney General Herbert H. Slatery III; Dr. Lisa Piercey, Commissioner
    of the Tennessee Department of Health; Dr. Rene Saunders, Chair of the Board for Licensing Health Care Facilities;
    Dr. W. Reeves Johnson, Jr., President of the Tennessee Board of Medical Examiners, and several local District
    Attorneys.
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                      Page 4
    provisions, sections 216 and 217, expose healthcare providers to criminal sanctions for
    performing abortions at certain gestational stages or for certain reasons.
    Under section 216, it constitutes a Class C felony for a physician to perform an abortion
    on a patient2 at specified “gestational ages,”3 all of them pre-viability. A Class C felony is
    punishable by three to 15 years of imprisonment and a fine of up to $10,000. 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 40-35-111
    (b)(3). The Act criminalizes abortion upon the detection of a “fetal heartbeat,”4
    § 216(c)(1); at six weeks, § 216(c)(3); at eight weeks, § 216(c)(4); and so on, at various intervals,
    through 24 weeks, § 216(c)(12).
    Section 217 makes it a Class C felony to perform, induce, or attempt to perform or induce
    an abortion if the physician “knows that the woman is seeking the abortion because of” the sex
    of the fetus, § 217(b); the race of the fetus, § 217(c); or “a prenatal diagnosis, test, or screening
    indicating Down syndrome or the potential for Down syndrome,” § 217(d).
    Both sections 216 and 217 include an “affirmative defense” provision that applies to
    physicians that perform, induce, or attempt to perform or induce an abortion because of a
    medical emergency where certain conditions are satisfied. § 216(e)(1)-(2); § 217(e)(1)-(2). The
    provisions state that “it is an affirmative defense to criminal prosecution for a violation of a
    provision of this section that, in the physician’s reasonable medical judgment, a medical
    emergency prevented compliance with the provision.” § 216(e)(1); § 217(e)(1). It requires that
    the physician certify in writing that in their “good faith, reasonable medical judgment,
    . . . compliance with the provision was prevented by a medical emergency.” § 216(e)(2)(A);
    § 217(e)(2)(A). “Medical emergency” is defined as
    2
    We use the word “patient” or “person” instead of “woman” where possible, to be inclusive of transgender
    and non-binary individuals, who also can become pregnant.
    3
    The gestational ages in the statute apparently measure time from conception. As it turns out, the medical
    terminology used to calculate the expected date of delivery measures time in the uterus from the first day of a
    patient’s last menstrual period (LMP), a calculation more accurately made than the time of conception. As a result,
    six weeks of “gestational age” would correspond approximately to eight weeks LMP.
    4
    Although the statute refers to the “fetal heartbeat,” one expert explained that “early cardiac activity” is a
    more appropriate term because at the developmental stage in question, there is not yet a cardiovascular system. So,
    what is termed a “heartbeat,” at that stage, is simply a group of cells with electrical activity.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 5
    a condition that, in the physician’s good faith medical judgment, based upon the
    facts known to the physician at the time, so complicates the woman’s pregnancy
    as to necessitate the immediate performance or inducement of an abortion in order
    to prevent the death of the pregnant woman or to avoid a serious risk of the
    substantial and irreversible impairment of a major bodily function of the pregnant
    woman that delay in the performance or inducement of the abortion would create.
    
    Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 39-15-216
    (a)(4); 39-15-211(a)(3). The statute specifically excludes a claim
    or diagnosis related to the woman’s mental health. § 216(a)(4).
    Both sections 216 and 217 contain a severability clause. Pursuant to those clauses, if any
    provision of the section is found to be unenforceable, the other enforceable provisions shall
    remain intact. § 216(h); § 217(i).
    Plaintiffs challenge the constitutionality of sections 216 and 217 of H.B. 2263
    On the day H.B. 2263 was passed, the plaintiffs filed a complaint in the United States
    District Court for the Middle District of Tennessee alleging that sections 216 and 217 are
    unconstitutional because they ban pre-viability abortions in violation of Fourteenth
    Amendment’s substantive-due-process provisions and lack a valid medical-emergency
    exception, and also because section 217 is unconstitutionally vague and thus violative of the
    plaintiffs’ procedural due process rights. They sought a temporary restraining order and/or a
    preliminary injunction.
    Plaintiffs’ Declarants
    In support of their motion for injunctive relief, the plaintiffs filed declarations from Dr.
    Kimberly Looney, Dr. Mary Norton, Dr. Nikki Zite, Corinne Rovetti, FNP, APRN-BC, Rebecca
    Terrell, and Melissa Grant.
    Looney is a board-certified obstetrician and gynecologist who serves as the Chief
    Medical Officer of Planned Parenthood Tennessee and North Mississippi (PPTNM). PPTNM is
    a not-for-profit organization that operates four health centers in Tennessee—one in Nashville,
    one in Knoxville, and two in Memphis.           Among a wide-range of women’s health and
    reproductive health services, PPTNM provides medication abortions through 11-weeks from the
    first day of a patient’s last menstrual period (LMP), and two of the four centers provide surgical
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.          Page 6
    abortions through 19-weeks, 6-days LMP. Looney expressed concerns that H.B. 2263 “will
    effectively eliminate access to abortion care in Tennessee” and “will result in significant and
    irreparable medical, emotional, and other harms to [ ] patients and have a significant chilling
    effect on providers.”
    Norton is a professor and licensed perinatologist and is board-certified in obstetrics and
    gynecology, clinical genetics, and maternal-fetal medicine, with a focus on high-risk
    pregnancies. She expressed concern about what she believes to be misleading, unsupported, or
    inaccurate findings underlying H.B. 2263.
    As a board-certified obstetrician and gynecologist and a professor, Zite’s experience
    involves providing pre-viability abortions in the hospital when the patient or fetus is in grave
    circumstances. Her practice is not based in one of the plaintiffs’ centers, but she works with
    patients with fetal health conditions and is concerned about the “inhumane and dangerous”
    results of forcing people with very serious health conditions to carry pregnancies to term.
    Rovetti, a family nurse practitioner and co-director of the Knoxville Center for
    Reproductive Health, also submitted a declaration stating that section 216’s bans effectively will
    prohibit all abortions at the Knoxville Center.
    Terrell is the executive director of CHOICES, which provides a full spectrum of
    reproductive healthcare, including abortion up to 16-weeks LMP, mostly for low-income
    patients. In her declaration, Terrell said that CHOICES provided 2,651 patients with an abortion
    “for a variety of medical, familial, financial, and personal reasons” in 2019 alone.
    Grant is the chief operations officer of FemHealth U.S.A.—a nonprofit that provides
    women’s reproductive health services with a location in Mount Juliet, Tennessee. FemHealth
    provides abortions up to 14-weeks LMP. Grant said that implementation of section 216 “will
    make it impossible” to continue providing pre-viability abortion care to most of FemHealth’s
    patients.
    The consensus reflected in the plaintiffs’ declarants is that H.B. 2263 would result in a
    complete ban on pre-viability abortions and that the Act incorrectly defines the term “viability.”
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 7
    For example, Looney explained that “[n]o fetus is viable at 20-weeks LMP or at any earlier
    gestational age.” Moreover, “[v]iability is not the same for every pregnancy,” but must be
    determined “by a trained medical professional on a case-by-case basis.” In fact, “some fetuses
    are never viable.” Although there are rare exceptions when infants born between 21.4 and 23
    weeks have survived, Norton has attested that those situations “are outliers that do not reflect a
    reasonable likelihood of sustained survival outside of the womb.” Even those infants born at 24-
    weeks LMP survive only 5-6% of the time, so most medical centers do not mandate resuscitation
    for births before that time. Additionally, according to Norton, “the very factors that lead some
    patients to seek abortion after the twentieth week of pregnancy—such as fetal and maternal
    health conditions—can significantly reduce or eliminate the likelihood of survival for the fetus.”
    Thus, according to the plaintiffs’ declarants, many factors contribute to the viability of a fetus,
    not just gestational age.
    The vast majority of the plaintiffs’ patients would be barred completely from accessing
    abortion in Tennessee under section 216. In 2019, PPTNM performed 4,742 abortions, 98% of
    which were at or after six-weeks LMP; approximately 95% of the Knoxville Center’s patients
    underwent abortion after six-weeks LMP; and at CHOICES, only 4.9% of patients received
    abortions prior to six-weeks LMP. Although patients tend to “seek abortion as early in their
    pregnancy as they can,” people have menstrual cycles of different lengths—and for a person with
    a “regular monthly period, fertilization typically occurs at two-weeks LMP.” So, even for a
    “person with a highly regular, four-week cycle,” six-weeks LMP is merely two weeks after a
    missed period. Those individuals with more irregular cycles may have even less time to seek an
    abortion under the restrictions of the section 216. “If abortion is banned after six-weeks LMP,
    this patient would have at most two weeks to learn they are pregnant, confirm that the pregnancy
    is in the uterus, decide whether to have an abortion, and seek and obtain abortion care.” Many
    patients who seek an abortion later in their pregnancies do so because negative maternal health
    conditions have arisen during pregnancy or have worsened or because newly diagnosed medical
    conditions cannot be treated effectively without risking harm to the fetus. But patients also seek
    abortion care later in pregnancies because of fetal diagnoses that are not discovered until 15-to-
    20-weeks LMP. These patients often seek genetic counseling to help them make the decisions
    that are best for them and their families prior to seeking an abortion.
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.              Page 8
    Seventy-five percent of abortion patients nationwide are classified as poor or low
    income.5 The majority of the patients of the plaintiffs’ agencies are economically disadvantaged
    and persons of color. Those patients faced substantial obstacles in obtaining abortion care even
    prior to the bans enacted pursuant to section 216. In addition to the substantial financial
    obstacles such as finding childcare or taking time from work, many abortions sought by
    survivors of rape, incest or abuse are delayed because of the time necessary to cope with the
    additional trauma. Because of these logistical challenges, were H.B. 2263 allowed to take effect,
    most of the plaintiffs’ patients would be forced to carry a pregnancy against their will—“robbing
    them of the ability to direct their own futures” and forcing others to “resort to unsafe means to
    terminate their pregnancy.”
    Furthermore, Looney, Rovetti, Terrell, and Grant noted in their declarations the problems
    with the language of section 217 that makes it illegal to perform an abortion if the physician
    “knows” it is sought “because of” the race, sex, or Down syndrome diagnosis of the fetus. They
    question whether the legislature intended that one of listed reasons must be “the only reason, the
    main reason, one of many reasons, or simply a factor.” “It also could be interpreted differently
    for different physicians or by different officials.” Because the race, sex, or genetic condition of
    the fetus may come up at some point during client counseling by providers, it is unclear whether
    the patient’s mere mention of the banned factor precludes them from providing an abortion to
    that patient.    Under Dr. Zite’s hospital’s policy, for example, she does not perform any
    terminations for pregnancies based solely on a Down syndrome diagnosis, but “[a]bortion may
    be offered if there are significant additional findings noted on an ultrasound.” It is unclear to her
    whether such abortions would be considered “because of” a Down syndrome diagnosis and thus
    criminalized under § 217. As a result, the statute’s bans would criminalize “all the abortion care
    [she] provide[s] at her hospital unless it qualifies as a ‘medical emergency’” and, even then, the
    reach of the statute raises serious concerns regarding the doctor’s criminal liability.
    5
    Citing Guttmacher Inst., Abortion is a Common Experience for U.S. Women, Despite Dramatic Declines
    in Rates (Oct. 19, 2017), https://www.guttmacher.org/news-release/2017/abortion-common-experience-us-women-
    despite-dramatic-declines-rates (last visited Apr. 12, 2021).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 9
    According to the plaintiffs’ declarants, individuals seek abortions for a variety of reasons
    but, regardless, the declarants provide “non-directive patient counseling,” during which they
    “listen to, support, and inform their patients, without directing their course of action” to make
    sure “that patients are well-informed with respect to all their options.” That counseling does not
    require patients to disclose their reasons for seeking abortions, although many do.             The
    declarants agree that reasons for terminating a pregnancy are often complex and multi-faceted,
    and even with comprehensive, open-ended patient counseling, it is “challenging, if not
    impossible” to determine a patient’s true reasons for terminating a pregnancy. Section 217 will
    inhibit the amount of counseling the plaintiffs are able to give their patients to ensure they are
    confident in their decision to terminate. Because of the vagueness inherent in section 217 and
    the severe penalties associated with violations of the section, the ban will “undermine the central
    feature of a healthy, effective patient-provider relationship: trust,” and providers will be forced
    “to assume the most aggressive reading of the statute.”
    The plaintiffs’ declarants further stated that if the bans are permitted to take effect, they
    would ultimately be forced to stop providing any pre-viability abortions to avoid criminal,
    financial, and medical-licensure penalties. Even in a medical emergency, the physicians would
    be hesitant to provide the necessary care because the affirmative defense is rife with uncertainty
    as to whether others would deem the physician’s “good faith medical judgment” as “reasonable”
    after the fact. This is particularly concerning because “medical emergency situations are often
    complex and easily subject to disagreement,” particularly “in Tennessee where there is such open
    hostility to abortion and abortion providers.”     This uncertainty may very well lead to an
    “inappropriately delayed” decision that puts “the patient’s long-term health in serious jeopardy.”
    The intimidation of criminal penalty also may result in the deterioration of a person’s health to
    the point that the abortion becomes immediately necessary.
    The State’s Declarants
    In opposition to the plaintiffs’ motion, the State filed declarations from Dr. Farr A.
    Curlin, Dr. Dennis M. Sullivan, O. Carter Snead, Amelia Platte, Dana Bythewood, Maureen L.
    Condie, Dr. Robin Pierucci, and Vanessa Lefler.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 10
    Curlin, a bioethicist and an internist with a sub-specialty in hospice and palliative
    medicine, challenged the premise that abortion is a common and safe medical procedure. His
    declaration discussed his belief concerning the ethics of abortion, that abortion “kills a human
    being” and that the procedure “often involves unjustified discrimination.”           Thus, he said,
    allowing abortions will damage the perceived integrity of the medical community. He expressed
    concern that healthcare has moved from a “traditional ethic” to “a providers-of-services model”
    for the sake of patients’ “well-being,” where “well-being is subjectively defined and understood
    principally in terms of satisfying the patients’ wishes.” He complained that this model “has led
    to moral detachment by clinicians[,] [r]ather than using their best judgment to pursue the
    patient’s health.” As a result, Curlin deemed section 216’s provisions reasonable based on
    ethical concerns, moral status, and the risks late-term abortions carry for women.
    Sullivan, a general surgeon, bioethicist, and pharmacist, expressed “concern that recent
    developments in prenatal testing have led to justifications for induced abortion where certain
    genetic abnormalities are found.” Memphis Ctr. for Reproductive Health v. Slatery, No. 3:20-cv-
    00501, slip op. at 17 (M.D. Tenn. July 24, 2020) (order issuing a preliminary injunction).
    According to Sullivan, Down syndrome is the most common chromosomal abnormality, and
    “between 61% and 91% of [women] choos[e] abortion when [it] is discovered on a prenatal test.”
    He stated that such a rate of abortion has resulted in a 30% reduction of the Down-syndrome
    community and a bias within the medical community against giving birth to infants with Down
    syndrome.
    Snead, an attorney and professor of bioethics and medical ethics, discussed the
    circumstances that gave rise to the National Commission for the Protection of Human Subjects of
    Biomedical and Behavioral Research.         He relies on those circumstances—and the laws
    governing protections for human subjects of federally-funded research—to argue that “unborn
    children . . . have interests that must be respected and honored.” He believes that sections 216
    and 217 will prevent vulnerable populations from being subjected to discrimination and cruel,
    inhumane, and degrading treatment. Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 18.
    Platte and Blythewood are Tennessee residents who recounted their experiences with
    healthcare providers while pregnant with a Down syndrome diagnosis. They explained that the
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.   Page 11
    providers focused on the negative aspects of the diagnosis, provided outdated information, and
    offered or encouraged the option of terminating their pregnancies.         Both women opted to
    continue with their pregnancies and now have “happy and healthy” children. Memphis Ctr., slip
    op. at 18-19.
    Condic is a professor specializing in issues concerning human embryology, science
    policy, and ethics, and focuses on research around fetal pain. She stated that it is universally
    accepted that at 10-to-12-weeks LMP, a human fetus is “capable of detecting and responding to
    pain.” What is debatable, she adds, is whether there is a conscious experience of pain. She
    declared that, at 14-to-20-weeks LMP, a fetus is “capable of supporting a conscious awareness of
    pain,” but she acknowledged that two major reviews of scientific literature on fetal pain have
    determined “that the fetus does not experience pain in a meaningful sense during the first two
    trimesters.”    Nevertheless, she reiterated her belief that evidence does not support such a
    conclusion. She also disputed the plaintiffs’ declarations on viability by pointing out that
    between 23% and 60% of infants born at 22-weeks LMP survive if they receive active hospital
    treatment.
    Pierucci, board-certified in pediatrics and neonatology, agreed with Condic’s contentions
    that evidence does not support the denial of the existence of fetal pain. And, although she agreed
    with the plaintiffs’ declarants that gestational age is not the only variable that determines
    viability, she contended that the “edge of viability” has decreased to approximately 22-to-23
    weeks, even while conceding that gestational ages and fetal diagnoses often are determined
    incorrectly.
    Rebuttal Declarations
    By way of reply, the plaintiffs filed supplemental declarations from Drs. Looney and
    Norton, along with declarations from two additional individuals: Steven J. Ralston, M.D.,
    M.P.H., and Owen Phillips, M.D., M.P.H..
    Phillips, a board-certified obstetrician/gynecologist and reproductive geneticist,
    specializes in testing for fetal genetic conditions and therefore has substantial experience
    counseling pregnant patients.     He explained that there are many ways genetic testing and
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 12
    counseling benefit patients:   these practices help patients feel less anxious about potential
    outcomes, prepare them for a series of undertakings to ensure a successful pregnancy and
    delivery, allow them to arrange for delivery in a hospital equipped to handle any possible
    complications particular to their situation, and help them make preparations for their child,
    gather finances, and explain the condition to their existing children. Ralston, a board-certified
    obstetrician/gynecologist with a specialty in medical ethics, agreed with Phillips and Norton that,
    contrary to the inferences made by the State’s declarants Curlin and Sullivan, prenatal genetic
    screening, testing, and counseling are not used simply to explore the possibility of abortion or to
    pressure patients into seeking abortion. Citing the American Medical Association’s Code of
    Medical Ethics, Phillips and Ralston disagreed with the assertions of the State’s declarants that
    bias and coercion are prevalent in patient counseling following a fetal diagnosis of Down
    syndrome. Recognizing that history is replete with instances of “reprehensible treatment of
    individuals with disabilities,” Phillips nevertheless believes that the examples in the State’s
    declarations “do not reflect the current state of medical care.” “Dr. Ralston state[d] that in his
    own practice and in training other physicians, he follows the recommendations of leading
    authorities on medical ethics to engage in a non-directive, non-judgmental approach to patient
    treatment and counseling.” Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 23.
    Ralston also refuted Condic’s comments on fetal pain, indicating that fetuses cannot “feel
    pain before at least 24-weeks LMP because key connections to the brain do not develop before
    that time.” He further contended—based on his own research and the research of leading experts
    in various disciplines—that fetuses never experience pain in utero. “Where anesthesia [ ] is
    administered to a fetus for fetal surgery and procedures, … it is done to prevent fetal movement,
    not to ensure a fetus remains unconscious or to reduce pain.” Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 23.
    Norton’s rebuttal also disagreed with the State’s positions on viability, counseling,
    abortion safety, and medical ethics. She reiterated that viability is determined by a variety of
    factors in addition to gestational age and that claims of fetal viability at 22-to-23-weeks LMP are
    not supported by current medical research. She further took issue with assertions that abortion
    care poses significant risks to patients’ physical or mental health. A comprehensive review of
    research shows that the “mainstream consensus in the field” is that mental-health issues for
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 13
    people with unwanted pregnancies were the same for those that had an abortion and those who
    gave birth. Also, research shows that abortion does not increase a person’s risk of mental-health
    disorders.
    Looney’s rebuttal declaration reiterated that her patients would no longer be able to
    access abortion for one of section 217’s prohibited reasons even if they do not disclose their
    reasons to the provider, because patients’ files still may reflect either a Down syndrome
    diagnosis or the fact that the patient inquired about the sex of the fetus. Once a patient has
    learned of such information, she said, “she would be forced to assume the patient had accounted
    for such a factor in making her decision, and would not be able to provide an abortion.”
    Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 24.
    The District Court issues a Preliminary Injunction and the State appeals
    On July 24, 2020, 11 days after issuing a temporary restraining order, the district court
    issued an injunction on the filings alone. Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 1. Based on the application
    of “binding Supreme Court precedent and the factors required for the extraordinary relief of an
    injunction,” the district court concluded that an injunction was warranted. Finding that the
    Supreme Court prohibited all-encompassing bans on pre-viability abortions, the district court
    determined that section 216’s “heartbeat and gestational-age bans” constituted violations of
    substantive due process rights.    Id. at 31.   In addressing arguments that section 217 was
    unconstitutionally vague, the district court adopted the concerns of the plaintiffs’ declarants:
    because the terms “know” and “because of” “lead to several pivotal questions,” they “make it
    impossible for a person of ordinary intelligence to know what conduct constitutes a crime.” Id.
    at 34. Because the district court thus found section 217 void for vagueness, it declined to address
    the plaintiffs’ substantive-due-process argument. Id. at 32-33. Finally, relying on Women’s
    Medical Professional Corp. v. Voinovich, 
    130 F.3d 187
    , 205 (6th Cir. 1997), the district court
    found that the medical-emergency defense was also unconstitutionally vague. Id. at 40.
    The State sought a stay of the injunction pending appeal, which the district court denied.
    They then requested—and were granted—a partial stay of the preliminary injunction regarding
    section 217 from this court. Memphis Center for Reproductive Health v. Slatery, No. 20-5969,
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.         Page 14
    (6th Cir. Nov. 20, 2020) (order). The order declined the plaintiffs’ request to address, in the first
    instance, whether section 217 operated as an unconstitutional ban on pre-viability abortions. Id.
    at 4 n.1. The plaintiffs then moved the district court for an emergency temporary restraining
    order followed by a preliminary injunction to stop the enforcement of section 217 as applied to
    pre-viability abortions, but the district court denied that request.
    The State now appeals “from the district court’s July 24, 2020[,] Order granting a
    preliminary injunction, including the legal conclusions and factual findings on which that Order
    is based.” In addition to the issues addressed by the district court—whether section 216 is an
    unconstitutional ban on pre-viability abortions, whether section 217 is unconstitutionally vague,
    and whether the medical-emergency affirmative defense is void for vagueness—the State also
    asks us to address, in the first instance, whether section 217 violates substantive due process
    principles. The plaintiffs contend that this last issue is not properly before this court at this time.
    DISCUSSION
    Standard of Review
    We review a district court’s issuance of a preliminary injunction for an abuse of
    discretion. McGirr v. Rehme, 
    891 F.3d 603
    , 610 (6th Cir. 2018). Thus, we may disturb the
    district court decision only if the decision “relied upon clearly erroneous findings of fact,
    improperly applied the governing law, or used an erroneous legal standard.” Hunter v. Hamilton
    Cnty. Bd. of Elections, 
    635 F.3d 219
    , 233 (6th Cir. 2011) (quoting Certified Restoration Dry
    Cleaning Network, LLC v. Tenke Corp., 
    511 F.3d 535
    , 541 (6th Cir. 2007)). We may not reverse
    the district court’s findings of fact even if we “would have weighed the evidence differently.”
    June Med. Servs. LLC v. Russo, 
    140 S. Ct. 2103
    , 2121 (2020) (plurality) (quoting Anderson v.
    City of Bessemer City, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 573-74 (1985)). But we review de novo the legal questions
    that underlie the district court’s decision, such as whether the moving party was likely to succeed
    on the merits. Fowler v. Benson, 
    924 F.3d 247
    , 256 (6th Cir. 2019).
    We consider four factors when determining whether a motion for a preliminary injunction
    should have been granted: (1) whether the movant is likely to succeed on the merits of their
    claim; (2) whether there would be irreparable injury in the absence of an injunction; (3) whether
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 15
    others would suffer harm because of an injunction; and (4) whether an injunction would serve
    the public interest. City of Pontiac Retired Emps. Ass’n v. Schimmel, 
    751 F.3d 427
    , 430 (6th Cir.
    2014) (en banc) (citation omitted). “When a party seeks a preliminary injunction on the basis of
    a potential constitutional violation, ‘the likelihood of success on the merits often will be the
    determinative factor.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting Obama for Am. v. Husted, 
    697 F.3d 423
    , 436 (6th Cir.
    2012)) (additional citation omitted). Therefore, we first address the plaintiffs’ likelihood of
    success on the merits of its challenges.
    Challenge to the Section 216 Pre-Viability Abortion Bans
    In Planned Parenthood of Southeastern Pennsylvania v. Casey, 
    505 U.S. 833
    , 878
    (1992), the Supreme Court made clear that “viability” is “the relevant point at which a State may
    begin limiting women’s access to abortion for reasons unrelated to maternal health.” Whole
    Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, 
    136 S. Ct. 2292
    , 2320 (2016) (affirming that the Court still
    applies that standard). “[A] State’s abortion-related law is unconstitutional on its face if ‘it will
    operate as a substantial obstacle to a woman’s choice to undergo an abortion’ in ‘a large fraction
    of the cases in which [it] is relevant.’” June Medical Servs. LLC v. Russo, 
    140 S. Ct. 2103
    , 2132
    (2020) (citing Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 895
    ).        In Gonzales v. Carhart, the Court continued to
    emphasize that “[u]nder the principles accepted as controlling,” a statute is “unconstitutional ‘if
    its purpose or effect is to place a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion
    before the fetus attains viability.’” 
    550 U.S. 124
    , 156 (2007) (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 878
    ).
    Because “before viability, the State’s interests are not strong enough to support a prohibition of
    abortion or the imposition of a substantial obstacle to the woman’s effective right to elect the
    procedure,” the district court determined that the section 216 bans were prohibitions on pre-
    viability abortions and did not evaluate the State’s interests. Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 31
    (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 846
    ).
    Our recent en banc decision suggested, however, that “[t]he right to an abortion before
    viability is not absolute”; thus, even when a regulation is characterized as a “ban” (as opposed to
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                      Page 16
    a regulation)6 and applies before viability, we still apply the undue-burden test.7 Preterm-
    Cleveland v. McCloud, 
    994 F.3d 512
    , 520 (6th Cir. 2021) (emphasis in original) (citing Women’s
    Med. Prof’l Corp. v. Taft, 
    353 F.3d 436
    , 443 (6th Cir. 2003); Voinovich, 
    130 F.3d at 193
    ;
    Planned Parenthood Sw. Ohio Region v. DeWine, 
    696 F.3d 490
    , 513-14 (6th Cir. 2012) (Moore,
    J. dissenting)). In so holding, it declared that “there is no absolute or per se right to an abortion
    based on the stage of the pregnancy” and, when a constitutional challenge is made, we are,
    apparently, required to apply the undue-burden test. 
    Id. at 521
    .
    The Supreme Court debated the undue-burden test in its most recent abortion case, June
    Medical Services v. Russo. There, the four-member plurality reinforced the balancing approach
    that they believed Casey laid out and that a majority in Whole Women’s Health reiterated: courts
    must “consider the burdens a law imposes on abortion access together with the benefits those
    laws confer.” June Med. Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2120 (quoting Whole Woman’s Health, 136 S. Ct.
    at 2309; Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 887-98
    ). Chief Justice Roberts’s solo concurrence, on the other
    hand, asserted more of a binary test: “restrictions that [do] not impose a substantial obstacle [are]
    constitutional, while [ ] restriction[s] that [do] impose a substantial obstacle [are]
    unconstitutional.” Id. at 2138 (Roberts, C.J. concurring). The Chief Justice also stated that
    6
    The parties have opposing views on whether the Act is a “regulation” or a “ban,” see Pl. Br. at 20, but
    Preterm Cleveland seemingly makes the debate irrelevant, stating that the undue-burden test is applied regardless of
    labeling. But see, e.g., EMW Women’s Surgical Center, P.S.C. v. Friedlander, 
    960 F.3d 785
    , 795 (6th Cir. 2020),
    petition for cert. filed, No. 20-601 (Nov. 5, 2020) (explaining that “a State may not prohibit any woman from
    making the ultimate decision to terminate her pregnancy before viability,” but “on the other hand,
    ‘regulations . . .’” must be adjudicated under the undue burden test) (emphasis added) (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 877, 879
    ); Jackson Women’s Health Org. v. Dobbs, 
    945 F.3d 265
    , 274 (5th Cir. 2019) (“laws that limit certain
    methods of abortion or impose certain requirements on those seeking abortions are distinct under Casey from those
    that prevent women from choosing to have abortions before viability”).
    7
    This interpretation is, however, completely counter to Supreme Court and Sixth Circuit precedent. Casey
    stated that “[A]n undue burden exists, and therefore a provision of law is invalid, if its purpose or effect is to place a
    substantial obstacle in the path” of a person seeking abortion before viability. 
    505 U.S. at 878
     (emphasis added).
    Casey did not state, nor did any later precedent declare, that a court must apply a test to determine whether there is
    an undue burden in those circumstances. This interpretation was artfully summarized by the Fifth Circuit in Jackson
    Women’s Health, 945 F.3d at 274:
    In recognition of state interests, Casey allows restrictions on pre-viability abortions that are not an
    undue burden on a woman’s right to elective abortion. The ban on partial-birth abortions in
    Gonzales is one example. But the Act is not such a restriction, so this legal principle, while valid,
    has no application here. Casey clarified that the “adoption of the undue burden analysis does not
    disturb the central holding of Roe”: “a State may not prohibit any woman from making the
    ultimate decision to terminate her pregnancy before viability.” This “central holding of Roe” is
    what the Act implicates here, as the State asks us to extend the undue-burden analysis past Casey’s
    clear demarcation.
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 17
    Casey’s undue burden test does not involve examining an abortion regulation’s benefits. Id. at
    2139. In EMW Women’s Surgical Center, P.S.C. v. Friedlander, 
    978 F.3d 418
    , 431 (6th Cir.
    2020), we applied Marks v. United States, 
    430 U.S. 188
    , 193 (1977), to determine which June
    Medical approach constituted governing law. We held that because Chief Justice Roberts’s
    concurrence was the narrowest opinion, it controls.8 Preterm Cleveland affirmed this approach.
    We are therefore obliged to make two evaluations of the challenged law as we determine
    whether a law regulating abortion is valid:
    First, it must be reasonably related to a legitimate state interest. Because we are
    to apply the traditional rule of deference to the state’s medical and scientific
    judgments, this requirement is met whenever a state has a rational basis to use its
    regulatory power.
    Second, the law must not have the effect of placing a substantial obstacle in the
    path of a woman seeking an abortion of a nonviable fetus.
    EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr, 978 F.3d at 433-34 (internal citations and alterations omitted).
    But notably, Chief Justice Roberts also emphasized that if a regulation creates a
    substantial obstacle to a woman seeking a pre-viability abortion, that finding constitutes a
    sufficient basis to invalidate the regulation. June Medical Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2139. Thus, it is
    still clear that when burdens are substantial enough, a law restricting access to pre-viability
    abortions is unconstitutional. As a result, if either of the two requirements fail, the law in
    question is invalid. Because we find that all provisions of section 216 pose a substantial burden
    to a person seeking an abortion at the relevant time LMP, it is unnecessary for us to fully address
    the State’s interests.
    Substantial Burden Analysis of Section 216
    “An undue burden exists, and therefore a provision of law is invalid, if its purpose or
    effect is to place a substantial obstacle in the path of a woman seeking an abortion before the
    fetus attains viability.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 878
     (emphasis added). The State argues here that the
    8
    “Because all laws invalid under the Chief Justice’s rationale are invalid under the plurality’s, but not all
    laws invalid under the plurality’s rationale are invalid under the Chief Justice’s, the Chief Justice’s position is the
    narrowest under Marks. His concurrence therefore ‘constitutes [June Medical Services’] holding and provides the
    governing standard here.’” EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr., 978 F.3d at 433 (citation omitted).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 18
    “timing provisions” of section 216 do not pose a substantial obstacle because they do not deter
    people from procuring an abortion “as if the State had outlawed abortion in all cases.” Gov’t
    Brief at 54 (quoting EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr., 978 F.3d at 434). But this proposition takes
    our quote out of context and misconstrues it to apply here.
    In EMW Women’s Surgical Center, the plaintiffs challenged a Kentucky law that
    imposed new licensing requirements on abortion providers. Id. at 423-24. In determining
    whether it created a substantial obstacle, we had to evaluate only whether the abortion providers
    “would be able to operate with the provisions in effect.” Id. at 440. Because they could in fact
    continue to operate if granted repeated 90-day waivers and because persons seeking pre-viability
    abortions still were able to obtain them at other facilities, it was not as though the State had
    outlawed abortion “in all cases.” See id. This comports with the holding in Gonzales that found
    a restriction on the method of abortion was not an undue burden because “[a]lternatives [were]
    available to the prohibited procedure.” 
    550 U.S. at 164
    .
    Here, however, a person at 12-weeks LMP—the most common time a patient pursues an
    abortion at the plaintiffs’ facilities—would be unable to obtain an abortion because under
    section 216(c)(5), it would in fact be outlawed “in all cases.” There would be no alternatives
    available. In essence, the state is defining the “alternative” as simply getting an abortion earlier.
    Gov’t Br. at 54 (“Nearly 13 percent of Tennessee residents who obtained abortions in the past
    decade did so before 6 weeks”). But this argument is unsound and misconstrues the “large
    fraction” analysis. “Legislation is measured for consistency with the Constitution by its impact
    on those whose conduct it affects. . . . The proper focus of constitutional inquiry is the group
    for whom the law is a restriction, not the group for whom the law is irrelevant.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 894
    ; see also Isaacson v. Horne, 
    716 F.3d 1213
    , 1227 (9th Cir. 2013) (noting that this kind of
    prohibition “does not merely ‘encourage’ women to make a decision regarding abortion earlier
    than Supreme Court cases require; it forces them to do so.”).
    In considering whether the provisions operate as a substantial obstacle for “a large
    fraction” of the relevant persons, if we were to define the denominator in the equation as all
    persons seeking abortions, that leaves 87 percent of them unable to get an abortion under
    section 216. By any definition, that is a “large fraction.” But the large-fraction test actually
    No. 20-5969         Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.             Page 19
    requires the denominator to be even smaller—it entails the persons for whom the restriction is
    relevant. June Med. Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2132-33.
    As we stated in Casey, a State’s abortion-related law is unconstitutional on its
    face if “it will operate as a substantial obstacle to a woman’s choice to undergo an
    abortion” in “a large fraction of the cases in which [it] is relevant.” In Whole
    Woman’s Health, we reaffirmed that standard. We made clear that the phrase
    refers to a large fraction of “those women for whom the provision is an actual
    rather than an irrelevant restriction.” That standard, not an “every woman”
    standard, is the standard that must govern in this case.9
    Id. (citations omitted). The State would have us define the relevant group as all women seeking
    an abortion and contends that because “nearly half of women” obtain abortions prior to eight-
    weeks LMP, the bans that begin at eight weeks do not pose a substantial obstacle for a “large
    fraction of women.” Gov’t Br. at 54. But the patients here “for whom the provision is an actual”
    restriction are those carrying pre-viability fetuses at the gestational age in question. See June
    Med. Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2132-33. Accordingly, a complete ban on abortions for anyone ten-
    weeks LMP is a “substantial burden” for 100% of persons ten-weeks LMP—even with an
    approach that “treat(s) the large-fraction test as ‘more conceptual than mathematical.’” Preterm-
    Cleveland, 994 F.3d at 535 (Batchelder, J. concurring) (citations omitted). Exact numbers are
    unnecessary to reach this logical conclusion.10
    The State is unable to argue its way around the plain and simple interpretation of
    section 216 as banning abortions before viability, and “a State may not prohibit any woman from
    making the ultimate decision to terminate her pregnancy before viability.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 879
    . The State goes to great lengths to show that a fetus might be viable at “less than 22 weeks,”
    making clauses ten through twelve (banning abortions at 22-to-24 week LMP) “post-viability.”
    But the district court weighed competing testimony and properly rejected the State’s contentions.
    Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 30. We do not disturb such a factual finding absent clear error.
    9
    The “large fraction” test is not addressed in Chief Justice Roberts’s concurring opinion; thus, the
    plurality’s treatment of the test is controlling.
    10
    Nonetheless, 73% of patients get abortions after six-weeks LMP, and more than half after eight-weeks
    LMP, so those provisions fail even if the population is defined as all pregnant persons seeking an abortion.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 20
    [I]t is not the proper function of the legislature or the courts to place viability,
    which essentially is a medical concept, at a specific point in the gestation period.
    The time when viability is achieved may vary with each pregnancy, and the
    determination of whether a particular fetus is viable is, and must be, a matter for
    the judgment of the responsible attending physician.
    Colautti v. Franklin, 
    439 U.S. 379
    , 388 (1979) (quoting Planned Parenthood of Cent. Mo. v.
    Danforth, 
    428 U.S. 52
    , 64 (1976)); see also MKB Mgmt. Corp. v. Stenehjem, 
    795 F.3d 768
    ,
    772-73 (8th Cir. 2015) (finding that a heartbeat ban is unconstitutional because courts “are bound
    by Supreme Court precedent holding that states may not prohibit pre-viability abortions”).
    With that in mind, “a substantial burden” is an understatement when addressing any
    gestational-age-dependent regulations that leave a person with no alternatives at a certain point
    in time. Thus, there is no provision of section 216—from the detection of a fetal heartbeat
    through 24-weeks LMP—that survives the undue-burden test. See Colautti, 
    439 U.S. at 388-89
    (“[N]either the legislature nor the courts may proclaim one of the elements entering into the
    ascertainment of viability—be it weeks of gestation or fetal weight or any other single factor—as
    the determinant of when the State has a compelling interest in the life or health of the fetus”); see
    also Jane L. v. Bangerter, 
    102 F.3d 1112
    , 1116–17 (10th Cir. 1996) (finding that the State
    impermissibly defined viability and banned abortion at 22-weeks LMP, thus choosing “to ignore
    the Supreme Court’s repeated directive that viability is a matter for an attending physician to
    determine”).
    Although Preterm-Cleveland held that “there is no absolute or per se right to an abortion
    based on the state of the pregnancy” and that the undue-burden test must be applied in all cases,
    994 F.3d at 521, any law that outright criminalizes all kinds of abortion at any stage pre-viability
    poses more than a substantial obstacle, it creates an impossibility. And under the test laid out by
    Chief Justice Roberts, if there is a substantial burden, we need not “balance” the burden with any
    state interest. EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr, 978 F.3d at 433-34 (citing June Med. Servs., 140 S.
    Ct. at 2138 (Roberts, C.J. concurring)).
    Finally, the State argues that its purported interests go beyond ones that “were actually
    at issue in Casey” and, therefore, that “the Supreme Court could not possibly have
    ‘carefully balanced’ interests that were not before it.” In particular, they ask us to draw a
    No. 20-5969         Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.             Page 21
    distinction at 15-weeks LMP, because their experts declare—contrary to mainstream scientific
    understanding—that a fetus can begin experiencing pain at that time. There are several reasons
    this argument is unsound. First, this reasoning does not change the fact that a prohibition of
    abortion at 15-weeks LMP is a substantial burden for a person seeking abortion at 15-weeks
    LMP. Second, the Supreme Court has specified that “‘viability’ is the relevant point at which a
    State may begin limiting access to abortion for reasons unrelated to maternal health,” meaning
    that the State’s other interests are of no consequence pre-viability. Whole Woman’s Health,
    136 S. Ct. at 2320 (emphasis added). And last, as Chief Justice Roberts explained in his
    concurrence, there is no need to balance state interests if there is in fact a “substantial burden.”
    June Medical Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2138; see Preterm-Cleveland, 994 F.3d at 524-25.
    But even if we were to consider the State’s interests, as they request, there are questions
    about whether their declared reasons for the law are, in fact, genuine. In legislative committee
    meetings, Representative Jerry Sexton, Chairman of the Subcommittee on Public Health, made
    clear that the reason behind the bill was not “a law issue” but “a moral issue.”11 Importantly,
    Chairman Sexton—in responding to a statement by the President of the Family Action Council
    of Tennessee that the Act would be unconstitutional—declared that the purpose behind the bill
    was “about overturning Roe v. Wade the right way” with “the right formula.”12 13 The State does
    not raise this questionable motivation as their “reasonable” rationale, but they do not hide it: the
    State proposes that if this court does find the law unconstitutional under the Casey framework,
    “that is a sure sign that the framework needs to be revisited.” Gov’t Br. at 55. Such a bold
    11
    Meeting on H.B. 2263 before the H. Subcomm. on Pub. Health, 111th General Assembly (Tenn. May 27,
    2020)      (statement    by   Rep.     Jerry    Sexton,  Chair,    H.     Subcomm.      on    Pub.    Health),
    http://tnga.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=414&clip_id=23005 (at 00:13:00).
    12
    Meeting on H.B. 2263 before the H. Subcomm. on Pub. Health, 111th General Assembly (Tenn. May 27,
    2020)      (statement    by   Rep.     Jerry    Sexton,  Chair,    H.     Subcomm.      on    Pub.    Health),
    http://tnga.granicus.com/MediaPlayer.php?view_id=414&clip_id=23005 (at 00:13:45).
    13
    Notably, the 111th Tennessee General Assembly, in 2019, passed a law to outlaw abortion in any
    circumstances as soon as constitutionally permissible. 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 39-15-213
    .
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                Page 22
    approach would force us to ignore not only the principle of stare decisis but also our duty to
    follow Supreme Court precedent.14
    The Supreme Court has been clear that laws that have the purpose or effect of placing an
    obstacle in the path of a woman seeking abortion “cannot be considered a permissible means of
    serving its legitimate ends.” See Whole Woman’s Health, 136 S. Ct. at 2309 (quoting Casey,
    
    505 U.S. at 877
    ); see also Jane L., 
    102 F.3d at 1116
     (declaring an abortion provision
    unconstitutional where the “legislature’s intent in passing the [ ] provisions was to provide a
    vehicle by which to challenge Roe v. Wade”). This legislative history indicates a likelihood that
    the justifications offered in court have been mere pretext and that the bill was passed with
    knowledge that it was unconstitutional.
    Although “the State may use its regulatory power to bar certain procedures,” it may do so
    only when it provides other options and “it has a rational basis to act.” Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 158
    . It thus is likely that the plaintiffs would succeed on the merits in demonstrating that
    section 216 is unconstitutional because it is in direct violation of the principles established in Roe
    and Casey.
    The “Reason” Bans of Section 217
    Finding that section 217 of H.B. 2263—the “anti-discrimination provision”—could result
    in varied interpretations that would result in criminal sanctions, the district court held that there
    was a substantial likelihood that it is unconstitutionally void for vagueness. Memphis Ctr., slip
    op. at 35. Section 217 criminalizes the performance of an abortion “if the [doctor] knows” that
    the abortion is being sought “because of” the sex or race of the fetus, or “because of” a prenatal
    diagnosis, test, or screening indicating Down syndrome. § 217 (b)-(d).
    14
    “For many persons these are not trivial concerns but profound and deep convictions accepted as ethical
    and moral principles to which they aspire and which thus determine the course of their lives. These considerations
    do not answer the question before us, however. The issue is whether the majority may use the power of the State to
    enforce these views on the whole society through operation of the criminal law. ‘Our obligation is to define the
    liberty of all, not to mandate our own moral code.’” Lawrence, 539 U.S. at 571 (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 850
    ).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.         Page 23
    Preterm-Cleveland addressed a similar Ohio law criminalizing the performance of an
    abortion “if the [doctor] has knowledge” that the patient sought abortion “in whole or in part,
    because of” a Down syndrome diagnosis. 994 F.3d at 517-19. Under the Ohio statute:
    No person shall purposely perform or induce or attempt to perform or induce an
    abortion on a pregnant woman if the person has knowledge that the pregnant
    woman is seeking the abortion, in whole or in part, because of any of the
    following:
    (1) A test result indicating Down syndrome in an unborn child;
    (2) A prenatal diagnosis of Down syndrome in an unborn child;
    (3) Any other reason to believe that an unborn child has Down syndrome.
    O.R.C. § 2919.10(B). We held that there was not an “undue burden in a large fraction of cases in
    which it [was] relevant” and found the law to be substantively constitutional. Id. at 529.
    Although section 217 is similar in effect to the Ohio law, an analysis of the law in this
    case diverges from that of Preterm-Cleveland for several reasons. First, the district court here
    determined that section 217 of the Tennessee law was unconstitutional because it was void for
    vagueness. Preterm Cleveland did not address such an argument. Second, section 217 also
    includes a ban for reasons pertaining to race and sex. The Ohio law did not include such
    provisions. Last, the language of the Ohio law and the facts of the record differ from this case,
    so that even if Preterm-Cleveland did address the void-for-vagueness argument (which it did
    not), our analysis would vary here.
    We address de novo the district court’s decision that a void-for-vagueness challenge to
    section 217 likely would succeed on the merits.
    Section 217 Void-for-Vagueness Challenge
    “It is a basic principle of due process that an enactment is void for vagueness if its
    prohibitions are not clearly defined.” Grayned v. City of Rockford, 
    408 U.S. 104
    , 108 (1972).
    “The degree of vagueness that the Constitution tolerates . . . depends in part on the nature of the
    enactment.”    Voinovich, 
    130 F.3d at 197
     (quoting Village of Hoffman Estates v. Flipside,
    Hoffman Estates, Inc., 
    455 U.S. 489
    , 498 (1982)). A “relatively strict” test is required when
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.   Page 24
    “criminal penalties are at stake,” and the most “stringent vagueness test” applies when a law
    “threatens to inhibit the exercise of constitutionally protected rights.” Id; Hoffman Estates,
    
    455 U.S. at 499
     (holding that the possible inhibition of a constitutional right is “perhaps the most
    important factor”).
    The void-for-vagueness doctrine rests on “several important values.” Grayned, 
    408 U.S. at 108
    . First, laws must “give the person of ordinary intelligence a reasonable opportunity to
    know what is prohibited, so that he may act accordingly.” 
    Id.
     Second, “laws must provide
    explicit standards for those who apply them” to avoid arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement.
    
    Id.
     A law cannot stand if it “impermissibly delegates basic policy matters to policemen, judges,
    and juries for resolution on an ad hoc and subjective basis, with the attendant dangers of
    arbitrary and discriminatory application.” 
    Id. at 108-09
    . Such laws “may permit ‘a standardless
    sweep [that] allows policemen, prosecutors, and juries to pursue their personal predilections.’”
    Kolender v. Lawson, 
    461 U.S. 352
    , 358 (1983) (quoting Smith v. Goguen, 
    415 U.S. 566
    , 575
    (1974)). Third, vague laws are unconstitutional if they lead people to “steer far wider of the
    unlawful zone” than they would have if the criminalized conduct had been more clearly
    delineated. Grayned, 
    408 U.S. at 109
     (internal quotation and citation omitted).
    Relying on the extensive record, the district court made the factual determination that
    section 217 left many questions unanswered, “mak[ing] it impossible for a person of ordinary
    intelligence to know what conduct constitutes a crime.” Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 34-35. For
    example, physicians testified for the plaintiffs that they are unclear whether “knowing” that an
    abortion is sought “because of” a banned reason means that the reason must “be the only reason,
    the main reason, one of many reasons, or simply a factor that the individual considered.” It is
    also unclear to those physicians whether performing an abortion when the patient’s file notes a
    Down syndrome diagnosis or after a patient makes an inquiry regarding the sex of the fetus will
    be deemed an abortion “because of” one of those reasons and would thus incur criminal liability.
    The district court weighed these concerns against contrary evidence and determined the concerns
    were valid and credible. This determination is not “clearly erroneous,” so we must accept it as
    true. See June Med. Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2132.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 25
    The State claims that the legislature has provided a definition of “knowing” and that it is
    “well-settled” that the term “because of” implies but-for causation. Gov’t Br. at 25; Bostock v.
    Clayton Cnty., 
    140 S. Ct. 1731
    , 1739 (2020) (“[A] but-for test directs us to change one thing at a
    time and see if the outcome changes.”). In support of its position, the State cites Tennessee Code
    Annotated § 39-11-106(a)(22):
    “Knowing” means that a person acts knowingly with respect to the conduct or to
    circumstances surrounding the conduct when the person is aware of the nature of
    the conduct or that the circumstances exist. A person acts knowingly with respect
    to a result of the person’s conduct when the person is aware that the conduct is
    reasonably certain to cause the result.
    The State argues that use of the word “know” in the statute constitutes a scienter requirement that
    “alleviates vagueness concerns, narrows the scope of [a statute’s] prohibition, and limits
    prosecutorial discretion.” Gov’t Br. at 26 (quoting McFadden v. United States, 
    576 U.S. 186
    ,
    197 (2015)). It is true that “a scienter requirement may mitigate a law’s vagueness,” Hoffman
    Estates, 
    455 U.S. at 499
    , but—as the district court explained—the distinct wording of this law
    requires that a doctor “know the motivations underlying the action of another person to avoid
    prosecution,” while simultaneously evaluating whether the decision is “because of” that
    subjective knowledge. Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 35.
    Perhaps the plaintiffs’ strongest argument that the statute is unconstitutionally vague is
    that it encourages arbitrary enforcement. The plaintiffs are concerned that given the “open
    hostility” toward abortion and abortion providers in Tennessee, a district attorney may prosecute
    them arbitrarily or that a jury may construe the imprecise language against the abortion
    providers. Pl. Br. at 34-35. The State acknowledges that “some cases might be difficult to
    determine what a person knew about the mental state of another,” but resolves that the problem
    would be addressed “by the requirement of proof beyond a reasonable doubt.” Gov’t Br. at 28
    (quoting United States v. Williams, 
    553 U.S. 285
    , 306 (2008)). However, this argument is a
    concession that the decision on what constitutes illegal behavior will be “impermissibly
    delegate[d]” to judges and juries who are then free “to pursue their personal predilections.”
    Grayned, 
    408 U.S. at 109
    ; Kolender, 
    461 U.S. at 358
     (quoting Smith, 
    415 U.S. at 575
    ).
    Of course, such a delegation violates the principle of due process.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.        Page 26
    Take, for example, a patient of advanced maternal age who visits CHOICES for
    counseling about her decision to terminate her pregnancy. In sorting through her options, she
    says that she has older children, does not feel like it is the right time in her life to have another,
    and has concerns about the financial impact another child will have on her family because she
    recently has been laid off from her job. Additionally, she says, a doctor advised her that because
    of her age, there is a heightened chance of a Down syndrome diagnosis. During her ultrasound,
    she inquires about the sex of the fetus and sounds disappointed when she is told it will be another
    boy—she always dreamed of having a girl.            Ultimately, she decides that terminating the
    pregnancy is the best choice for her and her family. How does the physician determine—with
    that information at hand—whether she knows that the patient’s decision to terminate was
    because of the sex of the baby, the risk of a Down syndrome diagnosis, or because of financial
    obligations and her advanced age? If the physician makes the judgment that the woman’s
    decision to terminate was not “because of” one of the banned reasons, what assurance does the
    physician have that a local prosecutor will not see it differently? The State tells us that the
    plaintiffs should not be concerned about these questions because the jury will ultimately decide,
    first, whether the patient made the decision to terminate the pregnancy because of a banned
    reason and, second, whether the physician knew that was why the patient made the decision.
    The dissent posits that understanding what section 217 prohibits is simple: “sex, race, or
    Down syndrome status need not be the only or most important reason for the abortion . . . [but]
    it must be a dispositive reason.” But that contention reeks of speculation. Even the State has
    been unclear as to where the law falls in ambiguous situations. When asked at oral argument
    whether it would violate section 217 for a physician to provide an abortion to a person who gave
    two reasons for wanting an abortion—being poor and not wanting a child of that sex—counsel
    for the State admitted that the provider “really can’t know the circumstances” and conceded
    “[not to] know if that would violate section 217,” but added that it would be the “prosecution’s
    burden to prove.” This conundrum is what Williams was referring to when it described statutes
    that require a “subjective judgment” as “indetermina[te].”           
    553 U.S. at 306
    .      It is this
    indeterminacy that distinguishes this law from others that require knowledge of another person’s
    state of mind.
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.    Page 27
    None of the State’s—or the dissent’s—examples of other criminal laws that require
    knowledge of another person’s state of mind—rape, federal conspiracy, assisted suicide—
    necessitate the additional analysis of “but-for” causation of a third party in the way that section
    217 requires. See Gov’t Br. at 28-30. For example, rape laws require a person to know whether
    a third party consented or was capable of consenting to sex, but the laws do not require the
    person know why the other person is not consenting. Nor do rape laws require a jury to
    determine the subjective state of mind of the victim. The victim’s state of mind is presumed by
    the fact that the case is being prosecuted.
    The State also relies on cases addressing child-pornography laws that shift the burden of
    determining whether the law was violated to the government and the jury. United States v.
    Williams, 
    533 U.S. 285
    , 305-306 (2008); United States v. Paull, 
    551 F.3d 516
    , 525 (6th Cir.
    2009). But those cases turn on “whether the incriminating fact [that the statute] establishes has
    been proved.” Williams, 
    553 U.S. at 306
    . Rather, it is the “indeterminacy of precisely what the
    fact is” that requires “wholly subjective judgments” that render a statute vague. See 
    id.
     Whether
    criminal defendants hold a belief that images they possess constitute child pornography, or have
    an intent to possess such images, differs greatly from section 217’s requirement that physicians
    “parse through and make causal assessments regarding the but-for motivations” of someone else.
    Pl. Br. at 32-33.
    True, there are laws that require a jury to consider the subjective intent of a third party,
    but those laws involve criminal conduct by a third party that has already been determined. For
    instance, prosecuting the aiding and abetting of a hate crime involves proof that the defendant
    aided and abetted the criminal conduct of a third party and that the third party’s criminal conduct
    was because of the victim’s protected class. In such a case, the third party’s alleged conduct was
    criminal, so regardless of the third party’s subjective intent, the defendant is being charged with
    aiding and abetting battery or some other criminal act that occurred. The “hate-crime” charge is
    essentially an enhancement to an indictment that would exist even without the enhancement. In
    contrast, the third parties in this case are patients who have not been involved in any criminal
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 28
    conduct—regardless of their reason for wanting an abortion.15                        Moreover, by the time a
    defendant is on trial for aiding or abetting a hate crime, a jury likely has determined already that
    the third party’s subjective intent qualified as a hate crime beyond a reasonable doubt through
    the evaluation of evidence, witnesses, and testimony. By the time the jury evaluates whether a
    defendant was guilty of aiding and abetting a hate crime, the subjective intent of the third party is
    no longer at issue. With section 217, on the other hand, patients whose subjective intent are at
    issue are not on trial, nor should they be subjected to an interrogation as to why they made such a
    difficult and personal decision. In the prosecution of section 217, not only would the mens rea
    of two people be at issue, but also a not-well-defined causation between them.
    These examples direct us to the final void-for-vagueness consideration: will this statute,
    which “abut[s] upon sensitive areas of [constitutional] freedoms . . . [,] require [physicians] to
    ‘steer far wider of the unlawful zone’” of conduct? Baggett v. Bullitt, 
    377 U.S. 360
    , 372 (1964)
    (quoting Speiser v. Randall, 
    357 U.S. 513
    , 526 (1958)). We believe the answer to that question
    is a resounding yes.
    The vice of the present procedure is that, where particular [conduct] falls close to
    the line separating the lawful and the unlawful, the possibility of mistaken
    factfinding—inherent in all litigation—will create the danger that the legitimate
    [conduct] will be penalized. The man who knows that he must bring forth proof
    and persuade another of the lawfulness of his conduct necessarily must steer far
    wider of the unlawful zone than if the State must bear these burdens. This is
    especially to be feared when the complexity of the proofs and the generality of the
    standards applied provide but shifting sands on which the litigant must maintain
    his position. How can a claimant whose declaration is rejected possibly sustain
    the burden of proving the negative of these complex factual elements? In
    practical operation, therefore, this procedural device must necessarily produce a
    result which the State could not command directly. It can only result in a
    deterrence of [conduct] which the Constitution makes free.
    Speiser, 
    357 U.S. at 526
     (emphasis added).
    15
    Similarly, this rationale distinguishes all of the other crimes listed by the dissent. Sexual misconduct is
    illegal, and termination for such a reason is typically documented. Escape from prison is illegal. Sharing insider
    information that affects investments is illegal. Further, whether or not someone is an “insider” or a prison escapee is
    a fact-based inquiry that can be proven or disproven. It does not require a subjective-intent analysis.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 29
    In their declarations to the court, two of the plaintiffs’ declarants, Looney and Terrell,
    said that because of the risk of prison time and the possible imposition of up to $10,000 in fines,
    whenever race, sex, or the potential for fetal conditions are even mentioned by the patient or are
    implicated by a detail in a patient’s chart, PPTNM and CHOICES would be forced to deny
    performing the procedure. Certainly, these are valid concerns because the State has conceded
    that even such circumstantial evidence may be used to prove “knowledge,” resulting in criminal
    liability. Indeed, at oral argument, counsel for the State was unable to tell us whether similar
    hypothetical conduct would be considered illegal.
    This point further distinguishes section 217 from the types of laws that the State and the
    dissent rely on. Whether they like it or not, access to safe and legal abortion is a Constitutional
    right. Committing, aiding, or abetting a hate crime is not. Insider trading is not. Neither is rape
    or the possession of child pornography. The reason these other laws exist is to deter criminal
    conduct and anything close to it. Conversely, precedent tells us that we cannot uphold laws that
    are so vague that they require persons to steer so clear of conduct that it infringes upon
    Constitutional rights. And because Constitutional rights are at stake, section 217 is subject to a
    much more “stringent” test than these other examples. Voinovich, 
    130 F.3d at 197
    ; Hoffman
    Estates, 
    455 U.S. at 499
    .
    Moreover, section 217 does not provide for any type of “good faith exception” that might
    assuage the Plaintiffs’ fears. The dissent argues that the “shield[]” of good faith is an answer to
    the danger that the law’s ambiguity poses to medical professionals. But section 217 does not
    provide for such an exception. Even if it did, good faith would not be so much an exception as it
    would be an affirmative defense, meaning that the doctor would have to be indicted and plead
    this defense to determine if her actions were legal. Precedent is very clear that the resolution of
    an ambiguous law cannot fall to juries. Grayned, 
    408 U.S. at 109
    ; Kolender, 
    461 U.S. at 358
    .
    And because criminal penalties are at stake even when a decision is made in good faith, “[t]he
    degree of vagueness that the Constitution tolerates” is very low. Hoffman Estates, 
    455 U.S. at 498
    .
    Furthermore, we have found that even laws with a good-faith exemption can be
    unconstitutionally vague when they contain both subjective and objective elements that require a
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                  Page 30
    physician to determine another person’s state of mind. Voinovich, 
    130 F.3d at 204
    . As we
    explained:
    [A] physician may act in good faith and yet still be held criminally and civilly
    liable if, after the fact, other physicians determine that the physician’s medical
    judgment was not reasonable. In other words, a physician need not act wilfully or
    recklessly in determining whether a medical emergency or medical necessity
    exists in order to be held criminally or civilly liable; rather, under the Act,
    physicians face liability even if they act in good faith according to their own best
    medical judgment.
    
    Id.
     Section 217’s scienter requirement does not resolve this issue because “even if the physician
    believed he or she was acting reasonably” in determining that race or gender was not the
    determinative reason for wanting an abortion, “as long as others later decide that the physician’s
    actions were nonetheless unreasonable,” criminal penalties will apply. 
    Id. at 205
    . Thus, the
    dissent’s argument that “negligence does not suffice” and that physicians will not be held liable
    for “what they reasonably should have, but in fact did not, infer” will not hold up in practice.
    The language of section 217 does not give persons of ordinary intelligence—physicians,
    in this case—a reasonable opportunity to know when they are permitted to perform an abortion.
    And considering the array of changing explanations the State has given for what conduct is
    prohibited, arbitrary prosecution could be invoked, and these “policy matters” could be
    “impermissibly delegate[d] . . . to policemen, judges, and juries for resolution on an ad hoc and
    subjective basis.” Grayned, 
    408 U.S. at 108-09
    . As a result of this ambiguity and uncertainty,
    many abortion providers might well choose to steer clear of anything that could possibly be
    construed as prohibited conduct, effectuating the inaccessibility of a right deemed fundamental
    under the Constitution. “‘[T]he vice of unconstitutional vagueness is further aggravated where,
    as here, the statute in question operates to inhibit the exercise of individual freedoms
    affirmatively protected by the Constitution.’” Baggett, 
    377 U.S. at 372
     (quoting Cramp v. Bd. of
    Public Instr., 
    368 U.S. 278
    , 287 (1961)).              The district court correctly determined that the
    Plaintiffs were likely to succeed on their void-for-vagueness challenge.16
    16
    The State argues that rather than striking down the law on vagueness grounds, this court should resort to
    “every reasonable construction” to save it. Gov’t Br. at 23-24 (citing Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 153
    ). But there is no
    way to construe this statutory language clearly enough to give notice as to when a discussion on identity issues as
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 31
    Reaching the Substantive-Due-Process Challenge to Section 217 in the First Instance
    In its determination that § 217 was unconstitutionally vague, the district court found it
    unnecessary to address the merits of the substantive-due-process challenge. Memphis Ctr., slip
    op. at 32-33. The State now asks us to address—in the first instance—whether section 217
    violates principles of substantive due process. Although we have discretion to decide matters in
    the first instance on appeal, Singleton v. Wulff, 
    428 U.S. 106
    , 121 (1976), we decline to do so at
    this time. The district court should resolve this issue in the first instance and, in doing so, should
    analyze the ban on abortions for Down syndrome separately from bans on abortions for reasons
    of race or sex. Although the decision in Preterm-Cleveland would be relevant to the Down
    syndrome clause of section 217, the issue of whether section 217’s provisions banning abortions
    based on sex and race violate substantive-due-process principles is yet to be addressed in this
    circuit.17
    In deciding this issue, the district court will have to evaluate the state interests put
    forward—a fact-intensive exercise that should scrutinize the underlying data purported to
    support the State’s rationale—to confirm whether the interests are indeed legitimate. For
    example, the State points to no evidence—other than data showing that more woman of color
    have abortions than white women and various historical interpretations of eugenics—that
    demonstrates that its residents are pursuing abortion “because of” the race or sex of the fetus.18
    complex as race and gender crosses over into criminal territory. Edited language cannot solve the challenge of
    requiring knowledge of another person’s state of mind plus a “but-for” analysis. See Williams, 
    553 U.S. at 306
    .
    17
    Although the Preterm Cleveland lead opinion “respectfully disagree[d]” with the Seventh Circuit
    decision finding that an Indiana statute banning abortions based on race or sex violated substantive-due-process
    principles, (1) the analysis did not garner a majority, (2) it did so on narrow grounds particular to it being a
    substantial burden, and (3) any extension of the analysis beyond the provision of the law on the fetal-diagnosis ban
    would be dicta. See Preterm-Cleveland, 994 F.3d at 529-30 (Batchelder, J., concurring) (citing Planned Parenthood
    of Ind. & Ky., Inc. v. Comm’r of Ind. State Dep’t of Health, 
    888 F.3d 300
    , 303 (7th Cir. 2018) reh’g en banc
    granted, judgment vacated, 727 F. App’x 208 (7th Cir. 2018), vacated, 
    917 F.3d 532
     (7th Cir. 2018), and opinion
    reinstated, 
    917 F.3d 532
     (7th Cir. 2018), and cert. granted in part, judgment rev’d in part sub nom. Box v. Planned
    Parenthood of Ind. & Ky., Inc., 
    139 S. Ct. 1780
     (2019)).
    18
    “Implicit in these rationales is the baseless assumption that women of color are committing genocide
    against their own community. While Black women and women of color do have higher abortion rates, the host of
    structural racial burdens to which they are subjected create the conditions for this disparity.” Br. of SisterReach as
    Amicus Curiae in support of Plaintiffs-Appellees at 25 (citing Susan A. Cohen, Abortion and Women of Color,
    GUTTMACHER INST., Aug. 2008, https://www.guttmacher.org/gpr/2008/08/abortion-and-women-color-biggerpicture
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 32
    When the purported “problem” the State seeks to solve is virtually non-existent in practice, the
    rationale may be considered illegitimate or irrational. See Whole Woman’s Health, 136 S. Ct. at
    2311 (holding that because “there was no significant health-related problem that the new law
    helped cure,” the law did not “advance Texas’[s] legitimate interest in protecting women’s
    health”).
    The legislative findings also point to sex-selective abortions leading to gender imbalances
    and gender-based crime in other countries. 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 39-15-214
    (a)(58)–(61). But this
    common discourse repeatedly fails to consider the driving force of the desire to have sons:
    patriarchal systems, government interference in reproductive decisions, and laws that perpetuate
    gender inequality.19
    The lack of data and failure to analyze the root of the cited problems, combined with
    Tennessee’s failure to take other actions that would prevent discrimination in the state, undercut
    arguments that any “interests” in equality and preventing eugenics based on race and gender are
    legitimate concerns. Considering that “[t]he ability of women to participate equally in the
    economic and social life of the Nation has been facilitated by their ability to control their
    reproductive lives,” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 856
    , the State’s purported interest in preventing
    discrimination appears to be directly frustrated by the enactment of this law.
    (describing how women of color are more likely to have unintended pregnancies due to socioeconomic inequality, a
    lack of healthcare access, and unequal opportunities regarding contraception and sex education)).
    19
    For example, in China, the desire was driven by the government’s 35-year regulation limiting families to
    one child coupled with the desire to pass on the family name—a patriarchal (or patrilineal) system. Lisa Cameron et
    al, China’s One-Child Policy: Effects on the Sex Ratio and Crime, Inst. For Family Studies, Dec. 19, 2018,
    https://ifstudies.org/blog/chinas-one-child-policy-effects-on-the-sex-ratio-and-crime; Das Gupta et al, Why is Son
    Preference so Persistent in East and South Asia? A Cross-Country Study of China, India, and the Republic of
    Korea, 40 J. OF DEV. STUDIES 153, 160 (June 4, 2010). In India, the desire is driven by the historical expense of
    having daughters: because of gender inequality in the workforce, sons tend to be stronger breadwinners and can
    better support their parents; parents are forced to pay an expensive dowry when daughters marry, often
    bankrupting poor families; and “tradition requires a son to perform certain funeral rituals for his parents.”
    Kalantry, How To Fix India’s Sex-Selection Problem, N. Y. TIMES, Int’l ed., July 28, 2017,
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/27/opinion/how-to-fix-indias-sex-selection-problem html (noting that India “has
    a long way to go before women achieve equality. The United Nations Development Program ranked India 125 out
    of 159 countries in terms of gender equality.”); Assoc. Press, India Tries to Stop Sex-Selective Abortions, N. Y.
    TIMES, Jul. 15, 2007, https://www.nytimes.com/2007/07/15/world/asia/15india html.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 33
    The Facial Challenge to the Medical-Emergency Provisions
    The plaintiffs argue, and the district court found, that both sections 216 and 217 are likely
    invalid because the medical-emergency provision, as required under Casey, is unconstitutionally
    vague. Although the facts and law support this determination, it is unnecessary to decide
    whether the medical-emergency affirmative defense is constitutional because the injunction on
    other grounds moots the issue.
    Balancing the Factors
    Given that the plaintiffs are likely to succeed on the merits of their constitutional
    challenges to sections 216 and 217, the only remaining question is whether the district court
    abused its discretion in finding that the other relevant factors weighed in favor of granting the
    preliminary injunction. See Tumblebus Inc. v. Cranmer, 
    399 F.3d 754
    , 760 (6th Cir. 2005). It
    did not.
    As the district court noted, a violation of constitutional rights alone can demonstrate that
    the absence of an injunction will cause irreparable harm.          Memphis Ctr., slip op. at 40
    (“A plaintiff’s harm from the denial of a preliminary injunction is irreparable if it is not fully
    compensable by monetary damages”) (quoting Overstreet v. Lexington-Fayette Urban Cnty.
    Gov’t, 
    305 F.3d 566
    , 578 (6th Cir. 2002)).        Additionally, the time-sensitive nature of the
    procedure would add to the adverse impact of the bans were they allowed to be enforced. 
    Id.
    And because enforcement of the law would result in criminal sanctions and licensing
    implications for physicians, they would suffer irreparable injury as well. Id. at 40-41.
    There is no evidence that anyone would suffer harm because of an injunction. See
    Planned Parenthood Ass’n of Cincinnati, Inc. v. City of Cincinnati, 
    822 F.2d 1390
    , 1400 (6th
    Cir. 1987) (“[T]here is a likelihood that the Ordinance will be found unconstitutional; it is
    therefore questionable whether the City has any ‘valid’ interest in enforcing the Ordinance.
    Consequently, we find no substantial harm in preventing the City from enforcing it.”). And last,
    the fourth factor is met because “the public is certainly interested in the prevention of
    enforcement of [regulations] which may be unconstitutional.” 
    Id.
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                  Page 34
    CONCLUSION
    The district court properly issued a preliminary injunction prohibiting enforcement of
    sections 216 and 217 of H.B. 2263 because the provisions are constitutionally unsound.
    Although this circuit’s recent—and alarming—decisions have broadened the extent to which the
    government may impede a person’s constitutional right to choose whether to carry a pregnancy
    to term, the law remains clear that if a regulation is a substantial obstacle to a woman seeking an
    abortion, it is invalid. Nonetheless, the facts and law of this case vary from other recently
    decided cases on similar issues. The above analysis closely follows the precedents of our circuit
    and those of the Supreme Court, as well as the persuasive opinions of other circuits. Any
    decision to overturn the district court’s finding of facts and well-reasoned decision would cast
    this court in the role of judicial activists.
    We take note that state legislatures recently have passed more anti-abortion regulations
    than perhaps at any other time in this country’s history.20 However, this development is not a
    signal to the courts to change course. It is, in fact, just the opposite. The judiciary exists as a
    check on majoritarian rule. It has a duty to protect the Constitutional rights, including privacy
    and bodily autonomy, of those within its borders, even—or especially—if the relevant class of
    people “has [ ] been subjected to a ‘tradition of disfavor’ by our laws.” City of Cleburne, Tex. v.
    Cleburne Living Ctr., 
    473 U.S. 432
    , 453 (1985) (Stevens, J., concurring).
    [T]he framers presciently recognized that two of the three co-equal branches of
    government were representative in nature and necessarily would be guided by
    self-interest and the pull of popular opinion. To restrain those natural, human
    impulses, the framers crafted Article III to ensure that rights, liberties, and duties
    need not be held hostage by popular whims.
    DeBoer v. Snyder, 
    772 F.3d 388
    , 436–37 (6th Cir. 2014) (Daughtrey, J., dissenting), rev’d sub
    nom. Obergefell v. Hodges, 
    576 U.S. 644
     (2015). The State may not use the courts to “enforce
    20
    The dissent relies on this as evidence of the public’s anti-abortion consensus. But recent polling
    demonstrates that the percentage of Americans that believe abortion should be legal under any circumstance is at its
    highest rate in almost twenty years. According to Gallup, 57% of the population polled opposes bans on abortions
    done because the fetus has a genetic disorder, 58% oppose bans on abortion after a “heartbeat” is detected, and 56%
    oppose bans on abortion after the 18th week of a pregnancy. Only 27% of the population would like to see abortion
    laws made more strict. Abortion, GALLUP, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx (last accessed August
    27, 2021).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.   Page 35
    [their moral principles] on the whole society through operation of the criminal law.” Lawrence,
    539 U.S. at 571.
    For the reasons set out above, we AFFIRM the district court’s judgment enjoining
    implementation of sections 216 and 217 of the Act.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 36
    ______________________________________________________________________
    CONCURRING IN JUDGMENT IN PART AND DISSENTING IN PART
    ______________________________________________________________________
    THAPAR, Circuit Judge, concurring in judgment in part and dissenting in part. There are
    rules for most cases, and then there are rules for abortion cases. This case proves the point.
    Tennessee enacted two laws: One sets time limits for abortion; the other bans abortion
    based on discrimination. The first law sought to join nearly every country in the world by,
    among other things, protecting the unborn from unnecessary pain during abortion. Tennessee
    did this by limiting abortions after a baby’s heartbeat can be heard. If a court finds the heartbeat
    restriction unconstitutional, then the limit kicks in only when a baby has reached 8 weeks
    gestation; if the 8-week restriction is deemed unconstitutional, then a 10-week restriction kicks
    in; and so on through 24 weeks.
    None of these timing restrictions are permissible under the Roe/Casey framework. But
    Roe and Casey are wrong as a matter of constitutional text, structure, and history. As Justice
    Thomas recently reminded us, these cases “created the right to abortion out of whole cloth,
    without a shred of support from the Constitution’s text.” June Medical Servs. v. Russo, 
    140 S. Ct. 2103
    , 2142 (2020) (Thomas, J., dissenting).
    By manufacturing a right to abortion, Roe and Casey have denied the American people a
    voice on an important political issue. “The permissibility of abortion, and the limitations upon it,
    are to be resolved like most important questions in our democracy: by citizens trying to persuade
    one another and then voting.” Planned Parenthood of Se. Pa. v. Casey, 
    505 U.S. 833
    , 979
    (1992) (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). The Roe/Casey regime has moved
    these policy debates from the country to the courtroom.
    Unsurprisingly, wrenching responsibility from the hands of state legislatures and giving it
    to judges has resulted in acrimony and results-oriented decisions. See Preterm-Cleveland v.
    McCloud, 
    994 F.3d 512
    , 536 (6th Cir. 2021) (en banc) (Sutton, J., concurring). Judges have been
    enlisted to serve as legislators, producing a make-it-up-as-you-go abortion jurisprudence. All the
    while stripping states of their sovereign authority.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 37
    The Roe/Casey framework doesn’t just conflict with the original understanding of the
    Constitution—it cannot be justified under any modern approach to constitutional interpretation.
    Even living constitutionalism, taken seriously, permits Tennessee’s (and many other states’)
    efforts to combat fetal pain. After all, the living constitution theory considers evolving standards
    of decency. Trop v. Dulles, 
    356 U.S. 86
    , 100–01 (1958) (plurality opinion). It looks to what is
    taking place in the states and the rest of the world as a barometer. See Roper v. Simmons,
    
    543 U.S. 551
    , 575–78 (2005). And both the states and the rest of the world are in a much
    different place than our abortion jurisprudence.
    Start with the states. In recent years, dozens of legislatures elected by tens of millions of
    voters have passed hundreds of laws to protect life.        And public polling shows that most
    Americans support significant limitations on abortion. That shouldn’t surprise us. Only seven
    other countries permit abortions after 20 weeks. That list includes China and North Korea—not
    exactly countries to emulate.
    It doesn’t have to be this way. The Founders understood that for our Republic to
    succeed, judges had to stay out of policy disputes. That’s why on matters like abortion, where
    morality and theology meet with public policy and medicine, the Framers wisely took the
    decision out of judges’ hands. Instead, they left the decision with state legislators, who could
    pass laws that reflect their constituents’ oft-changing views on these difficult policy questions.
    The result? Tennessee can do one thing, Ohio another, and Kentucky and Michigan can learn
    from both.
    But as a lower court judge, I am bound by the Supreme Court’s decisions, whether right
    or wrong. And Casey mandates that we strike down any general bans on abortions before
    viability. Thus, I concur in the judgment as to section 216.
    The second law prohibits doctors from knowingly participating in abortions that target
    unborn children because of their race, sex, or Down syndrome status. The law’s operation is
    clear. Its causation requirement—“because of”—mirrors scores of federal and state statutes.
    Indeed, hundreds of criminal laws have exactly the same causation requirement.             But the
    majority says that the same requirement, in this Act, is unconstitutionally vague. In reaching this
    No. 20-5969         Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                Page 38
    conclusion, the majority misapplies precedent and usurps the democratic processes of a
    sovereign state—all in service of an abortion right that exists nowhere in the Constitution.
    Conspiracy statutes. Anti-money laundering schemes. Anti-discrimination laws. Are they all
    now up for grabs?
    On this point, the majority stands alone—against common sense, the English language,
    and basic legal principles. And its decision to strike down the anti-discrimination statute at the
    altar of abortion is wrong.
    I.
    A.
    In July 2020, Tennessee’s elected officials enacted H.B. 2263 (the “Act”). 
    2020 Tenn. Pub. Acts 764
    .        Among other things, the Act aims to protect unborn children from the
    “unnecessary infliction of pain,” to promote the “integrity of and public trust in the medical
    profession,” to “protect[] the life, physical health, and mental health of women,” and to
    “prevent[] discrimination and discriminatory practices” based on sex, race, and disability. 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 39-15-214
    (b). This case involves two provisions of the Act.
    Section 216.      The first provision governs when doctors can perform abortions.                      It
    prohibits abortions after a baby develops a heartbeat but provides doctors with an affirmative
    defense if there is a medical emergency. 
    Id.
     § 39-15-216(c)(1), (e)(1). If a judge deems the
    heartbeat restriction unconstitutional, section 216 provides a series of back-ups. First, an 8-week
    restriction kicks in; if the 8-week restriction is deemed unconstitutional, then a 10-week
    restriction kicks in; and so on through 24 weeks.1 Id. § 39-15-216(c)(3)–(12), (d)(1), (h). Once
    an unborn child reaches viability, a separate provision of Tennessee law (not challenged here)
    bans abortions absent a medical emergency. Id. § 39-15-211(b).
    Section 216 is accompanied by numerous legislative findings. The General Assembly
    determined that a baby’s heart may begin beating as early as 5 weeks and that the heartbeat can
    1
    The number of weeks refers to “gestational age,” which means “the age of an unborn child as calculated
    from the first day of the last menstrual period of a pregnant woman.” 
    Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 39-15-211
    (a)(3), 39-15-
    216(a)(2).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 39
    be detected as early as 6 to 8 weeks. 
    Id.
     § 39-15-214(a)(8)–(9). For that reason, there is a
    rebuttable presumption that an unborn child has a heartbeat at 6 weeks. Id. § 39-15-216(c)(2).
    And the General Assembly noted that while the medical community hasn’t reached a consensus
    on when an unborn child is fully capable of feeling pain, there is evidence that physical
    developments supporting the capacity to feel pain occur early in pregnancy.            Id. § 39-15-
    214(a)(17)–(24), (26), (29).
    Moreover, the General Assembly found that the United States is an outlier in the global
    community. Few other countries allow abortions after 12 weeks, and even fewer after 20. Id.
    § 39-15-214(a)(50)–(52). Indeed, most countries reject medical practices that cause an unborn
    child pain. Id. § 39-15-214(a)(67). The Assembly noted that those practices “create a disdain
    for life” and significantly harm the medical profession’s “integrity and public respect.” Id. § 39-
    15-214(a)(69).
    Section 217. The second provision prohibits doctors from performing an abortion when
    the doctor “knows that the woman is seeking the abortion because of” any one of three
    immutable characteristics: (1) “the sex of the unborn child”; (2) “the race of the unborn child”;
    or (3) “a prenatal diagnosis, test, or screening indicating Down syndrome or the potential for
    Down syndrome in the unborn child.” Id. § 39-15-217(b)–(d). Like section 216, section 217
    provides doctors a medical-emergency affirmative defense. Id. § 39-15-217(e)(1).
    Legislative factfinding accompanies this section as well. The General Assembly found
    that abortion is a historical outgrowth of biased and discriminatory policies aimed at reducing
    allegedly inferior populations. The legislature noted that the “historical practice of abortion
    was rooted not in equality but in discrimination based on age, sex, and disability.” Id. § 39-15-
    214(a)(54).    For instance, Planned Parenthood founder Margaret Sanger argued that “birth
    control would open the way to the eugenicist” by reducing the “ever increasing,
    unceasingly spawning class of human beings who never should have been born at all.” Id. § 39-
    15-214(a)(56). Another important figure in Planned Parenthood’s history, former president Alan
    Guttmacher, “argued in the 1950’s that abortion should be used to prevent the birth of disabled
    children.” Id. § 39-15-214(a)(57). The legislature called for “[t]hese historic policies [to] be
    rejected and left on the ash heap of history.” Id. § 39-15-214(a)(53).
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 40
    Further findings highlighted how abortion is deployed as a tool of discrimination around
    the world. The General Assembly found that sixty-seven percent of unborn children diagnosed
    with Down syndrome in the United States are aborted.             Id. § 39-15-214(a)(60). And the
    legislature observed that the rates were even higher elsewhere in the world. Id. Likewise,
    widespread selective abortion of girls has produced major sex-ratio imbalances in certain
    countries and has encouraged the rise of human trafficking. Id. § 39-15-214(a)(58)–(61). The
    General Assembly also found that physicians’ involvement in medical practices that promote
    discrimination significantly harms the profession’s “integrity and public respect” and offends
    “the United States and Tennessee constitutions’ affirmation of equal protection under the law.”
    Id. § 39-15-214(a)(68)–(69).
    Severability Provisions. Both sections 216 and 217 include robust and nearly identical
    severability provisions. See id. §§ 39-15-216(h), 39-15-217(i).
    B.
    The same day that the General Assembly passed the Act, four Tennessee reproductive
    centers and two OB/GYNs (“the challengers”) filed suit against several Tennessee officials
    (“Tennessee” or “the State”). The challengers attacked the Act on several fronts. First, they
    claimed that sections 216 and 217 violate the Supreme Court’s substantive due process caselaw
    by banning pre-viability abortions. Second, they argued that sections 216 and 217 lack adequate
    medical-emergency exceptions. And third, they claimed that section 217 violates procedural due
    process because it fails to provide fair notice of the conduct it prohibits. These defects, they
    maintained, render the Act unconstitutional as applied to all pre-viability abortions and thus
    facially unconstitutional.    See Gonzales v. Carhart, 
    550 U.S. 124
    , 156 (2007) (treating a
    challenge to a statute as applied to all pre-viability abortions as a facial challenge).
    Only hours after Governor Lee signed the Act into law, the district court granted a
    temporary restraining order to suspend the Act’s enforcement. Less than two weeks later, it
    followed up with a preliminary injunction to the same effect. The court held that section 216
    impermissibly prohibits pre-viability abortions, that section 217 is void for vagueness, and that
    both lack a valid medical-emergency exception. The court didn’t consider the challengers’
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.        Page 41
    argument that section 217 violates substantive due process precedents. The State appealed, and
    this court issued a stay pending appeal of the preliminary injunction as it affects section 217.
    II.
    Section 216’s ban on abortions after a heartbeat is detected cannot stand under the
    Supreme Court’s abortion precedents.         But those precedents are wrong.         The Roe/Casey
    framework cannot be justified under the original meaning of the Constitution. Nor can it be
    justified under a living constitutional approach. And on top of that, the framework has proven
    unworkable in practice. Nonetheless, my role as a lower court judge requires that I concur in the
    judgment.
    A.
    1.
    When reading the Constitution, we must remember that a law’s meaning is fixed when it
    is enacted and does not change unless the law itself has been changed. See South Carolina v.
    United States, 
    199 U.S. 437
    , 448 (1905) (“The Constitution is a written instrument. As such its
    meaning does not alter. That which it meant when adopted, it means now.”). See generally
    Keith E. Whittington, Constitutional Interpretation (1999). And we determine this meaning by
    looking to the Constitution’s “text, structure, and original understanding.”          NLRB v. Noel
    Canning, 
    573 U.S. 513
    , 573 (2014) (Scalia, J., concurring). In other words, we begin by asking
    what a reasonable reader at the time of ratification (the intended audience) would understand the
    Constitution’s text to mean in light of the Nation’s history and legal backdrop. See, e.g., United
    States v. Sprague, 
    282 U.S. 716
    , 729–34 (1931). After all, that is the document the states signed
    on to and thus made legally binding.
    It is the judge’s job to enforce the written Constitution without fear or favor. This duty
    constrains the judge from exercising power he or she does not have. On this point, both
    Federalists and Anti-Federalists agreed. As James Madison observed, “I entirely concur in the
    propriety of resorting to the sense in which the Constitution was accepted and ratified by the
    nation. . . . And if that be not the guide in expounding it, there can be no security for a consistent
    No. 20-5969            Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                        Page 42
    and stable, more than for a faithful exercise of its powers.” Letter from James Madison to Henry
    Lee (June 25, 1824), in 9 The Writings of James Madison 191 (G. Hunt ed., 1910). Likewise,
    Brutus, a leading Anti-Federalist, urged that “courts are to give such meaning to the constitution
    as comports best with the common, and generally received acceptation of the words in which it is
    expressed, regarding their ordinary and popular use.” Brutus, Essay XI (Jan. 31, 1788), in The
    Anti-Federalist 162, 164 (Herbert J. Storing ed., 2d ed. 1985). Both Madison and Brutus
    understood that a federal judiciary guarded by life tenure and salary protections could abuse its
    authority unless judges’ discretion was hemmed in by the text.
    2.
    I now turn to the putative right to abortion and start with the text. No one, including the
    Roe majority, contends that such a right exists in the text of the Articles of the Constitution.
    Instead, jurists and commentators point to the Bill of Rights or the Fourteenth Amendment. But
    you won’t find the word “abortion” (or any equivalent) there either. Indeed, many thoughtful
    legal scholars, including those who support abortion as a policy matter, have expressed
    skepticism of or outright hostility to the idea that the Constitution explicitly provides a right to
    abortion.2 The text does not bear it out.
    So for a right to exist, the Supreme Court has told us the asserted right must be one that is
    “deeply rooted” in this Nation’s “history, legal traditions, and practices.”                             Washington v.
    Glucksberg, 
    521 U.S. 702
    , 720–21 (1997). The Court has offered two related requirements for
    determining whether the asserted right can claim such an auspicious historical pedigree. Both
    require “look[ing] primarily to eminent common-law authorities (Blackstone, Coke, Hale, and
    the like), as well as to early English and American judicial decisions.” Kahler v. Kansas, 
    140 S. Ct. 1021
    , 1027 (2020). First, the right must be “so rooted in the traditions and conscience of our
    people as to be ranked as fundamental.” Glucksberg, 
    521 U.S. at 721
     (citations omitted and
    2
    See Linda J. Greenhouse, Constitutional Question: Is There a Right to Abortion?, N.Y. Times Mag., Jan.
    25, 1970, at 30 (describing the claim to a constitutional right to abortion “at first hearing . . . [as] fantastic, illusory.
    The Constitution is searched in vain for any mention of it”); John Hart Ely, The Wages of Crying Wolf: A Comment
    on Roe v. Wade, 
    82 Yale L.J. 920
    , 947 (1973) (“[Roe v. Wade] is not constitutional law and gives almost no sense
    of an obligation to try to be.”); see also Archibald Cox, The Role of the Supreme Court in American Government
    113–14 (1976) (stating that Roe “read[s] like a set of hospital rules and regulations” that “[n]either historian,
    layman, nor lawyer will be persuaded . . . are part of . . . the Constitution”).
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                    Page 43
    cleaned up). The right must be “implicit in the concept of ordered liberty, such that neither
    liberty nor justice would exist” without its recognition. 
    Id.
     (citations omitted and cleaned up).
    Second, the court must make a “careful description” of “the asserted fundamental liberty
    interest.” 
    Id.
     This is a tough test to pass. And rightly so. After all, when the judiciary
    recognizes a new right, we take the decision away from the American people.
    The Roe majority claimed that a right to abortion easily clears that high hurdle. But in
    doing so, it rewrote history.3
    The majority found that a right to abortion extended from the earlier common law
    through most of the nineteenth century. Roe v. Wade, 
    410 U.S. 113
    , 117 (1973) (“[T]his opinion
    place[s] some emphasis upon[] medical and medical-legal history and what that history reveals
    about man’s attitudes toward the abortion procedure over the centuries.”). To support that
    conclusion, the majority made three main points.4 First, it asserted that “[i]t is undisputed that at
    common law, abortion performed before ‘quickening’—the first recognizable movement of the
    fetus in utero, appearing usually from the 16th to the 18th week of pregnancy—was not an
    indictable offense.” 
    Id. at 132
     (emphasis added) (footnotes omitted). It also doubted whether
    “abortion was ever firmly established as a common-law crime even with respect to the
    destruction of a quick fetus.” 
    Id. at 136
    . Second, the majority said that most states only began
    passing laws prohibiting abortion after the Civil War. 
    Id.
     at 138–39. And third, the majority
    believed that by “the late 19th and early 20th centuries” state courts “focus[ed] on the State’s
    3
    I am not the first to point out the flaws in Roe’s historical analysis. In fact, generations of scholars have
    done the same. See generally, e.g., Joseph W. Dellapenna, Dispelling the Myths of Abortion History (2006); John
    Keown, Abortion, Doctors and the Law: Some Aspects of the Legal Regulation of Abortion in England from 1803 to
    1982 (1988); Robert M. Byrn, An American Tragedy: The Supreme Court on Abortion, 
    41 Fordham L. Rev. 807
    (1973); Robert A. Destro, Comment, Abortion and the Constitution: The Need for a Life-Protective Amendment, 
    63 Calif. L. Rev. 1250
     (1975); John Finnis, “Shameless Acts” in Colorado: Abuse of Scholarship in Constitutional
    Cases, 7 Acad. Questions 10 (1994); Dennis J. Horan & Thomas J. Balch, Roe v. Wade: No Justification in History,
    Law, or Logic, in Abortion and the Constitution: Reversing Roe v. Wade Through the Courts 57 (Dennis J. Horan et
    al. eds., 1987); James S. Witherspoon, Reexamining Roe: Nineteenth-Century Abortion Statutes and the Fourteenth
    Amendment, 17 St. Mary’s L.J. 29 (1985). This opinion draws on their meticulous work.
    4
    I am aware that the Roe majority offered a fleet of additional historical arguments ranging from the views
    of the Persians and ancient Greeks on abortion to the Hippocratic Oath. But at some point, I must follow the mercy
    rule for the sake of both Roe and the reader. Gluttons for punishment can look elsewhere for a more thorough
    demolition of Roe’s historical foundations. See generally Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths; Horan & Balch, No
    Justification in History, in Abortion and the Constitution.
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                      Page 44
    interest in protecting the woman’s health rather than in preserving the embryo and fetus.” 
    Id. at 151
    .
    But the Roe majority built its historical home on sand not rock. To begin, it relied
    heavily on two articles that Cyril Means (legal counsel to one of NARAL’s predecessor
    organizations) penned in 1968 and 1971. Indeed, the Roe majority cited Means’s work half a
    dozen times while giving no other historical secondary source a second look.
    The majority’s reliance on Means’s work is surprising.5 The historical errors in his
    scholarship stood out even to the attorneys who presented the scholarship to the Roe Court in the
    first place. See David J. Garrow, Liberty and Sexuality: The Right to Privacy and the Making of
    Roe v. Wade 500–01 & nn.40–42 (1994). An internal memorandum from Jane Roe’s legal team
    warned that Means’s “conclusions sometime[s] strain credibility.” 
    Id.
     at 501 n.41. It even
    acknowledged that Means had twisted the history “as necessary.” 
    Id.
     But the memorandum
    ultimately reasoned that Means had written “a piece so long” that it “preserve[d] the guise of
    impartial scholarship while advancing the proper ideological goals.” 
    Id.
    Reliance on suspect sources like Means is just one of many reasons why historians and
    jurists have roundly criticized Roe’s historical foundations since the day it came down. See, e.g.,
    John R. Connery, The Ancients and the Medievals on Abortion: The Consensus the Court
    Ignored, in Abortion and the Constitution, at 123 (“The Court’s version of history is so defective
    that it serves no useful purpose and the accurate account, far from validating the position of the
    Court, offers a very convincing argument against it.”).6 Judge Richard Posner characterized
    5
    Multiple scholars have noted both how integral Means’s work was to Roe’s conclusion and the glaring
    errors in his scholarship. See, e.g., Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 144–46, 326–31; Horan & Balch, No
    Justification in History, in Abortion and the Constitution, at 65–66.
    6
    See also Horan & Balch, No Justification in History, in Abortion and the Constitution, at 58 (“Virtually
    every aspect of the historical, sociological, medical, and legal arguments Justice Harry Blackmun used to support the
    Roe holdings has been subjected to intense scholarly criticism.”); Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 689 (dismissing
    the majority’s historical analysis as “imbalance[d]” and “wrong on all points”); Finnis, 7 Acad. Questions at 11 (“I
    shall just say that the most important of the assertions . . . about the historical facts are demonstrably false, and have
    been shown to be false in scholarly publications to which no reply has been forthcoming.”); Byrn, 41 Fordham L.
    Rev. at 814 (“Unfortunately, the Court’s understanding of the Anglo-American history of the law of abortion is both
    distorted and incomplete.”); Destro, 63 Calif. L. Rev. at 1273 (“The Court’s uncritical acceptance of an advocate’s
    interpretation of the common law only served to confuse the issues and to rest an important constitutional holding on
    an erroneous historical foundation.”).
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                    Page 45
    Roe’s historical recitation as “sophomoric.” Richard A. Posner, Judges’ Writing Styles (and Do
    They Matter?), 
    62 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1421
    , 1434–35 (1995).
    Indeed, none of Roe’s three main points have survived the onslaught of scrutiny.
    Academics have spilled plenty of ink discrediting Roe’s law-office history, so I will give only a
    brief overview.
    Let’s start with the common law. It is never good to find yourself disagreeing on the
    common law with Chief Justice Sir Edward Coke, Sir William Blackstone, Henry de Bracton, Sir
    Matthew Hale, and William Hawkins. And these preeminent jurists have all illuminated the
    common law’s unwavering view of abortion as the unlawful killing of a human being.7 Yet the
    Roe majority brushed each of them aside.
    For example, in his famous Institutes, Coke identified abortion as a “great misprision”—a
    serious misdemeanor. 3 Coke, Institutes, at 50.8 If a provider attempted an abortion but the
    child died after being born alive, the Crown could prosecute for murder. 
    Id.
     How did the Roe
    majority confront this? First, it relied on Means to claim that Coke “may have intentionally
    misstated the law.” 
    410 U.S. at
    135 n.26. Then the majority attacked the generations of lawyers
    and jurists who have followed Coke—saying they did so “uncritical[ly].” 
    Id.
     at 135–36.
    The Roe majority’s argument hinged on two fourteenth-century cases that Means
    evocatively dubbed The Twinslayer’s Case and The Abortionist’s Case.9 Cyril C. Means, Jr.,
    The Phoenix of Abortional Freedom: Is a Penumbral or Ninth-Amendment Right About to Arise
    7
    See, e.g., 3 Edward Coke, Institutes of the Laws of England 50 (1644); 1 William Blackstone,
    Commentaries *125–26; 2 Henry de Bracton, On The Laws and Customs of England 341 (George E. Woodbine ed.,
    Samuel E. Thorne trans., 1977) (c. 1256); 1 Matthew Hale, The History of the Pleas of the Crown 433 (1736);
    1 William Hawkins, A Treatise of the Pleas of the Crown 188 (7th ed. 1795).
    8
    Coke identified two types of misprisions at common law: crimes of omission and crimes of commission.
    The first involved concealment of a felony or treason; the second encompassed “many great offences which are
    neither treason nor felony.” 3 Coke, Institutes, at 36, 139. Abortion of a quick fetus was considered the latter. Id. at
    50.
    9
    While the fourteenth-century common-law cases are surely relevant to our understanding of the history,
    what matters most is what the common law meant to the ordinary reader at either the time of the Founding or during
    the Reconstruction Era. And yet even on its own terms, Means’s argument does not have merit. As one scholar has
    shown, the Twinslayer’s Case can actually be read as evidence that “abortion was indeed a common law crime as
    early as 1327.” Destro, 63 Calif. L. Rev. at 1269. And in any case, by the time of the Founding, the common law
    had settled on Coke’s view that abortion was a criminal act. See, e.g., 1 Blackstone, Commentaries *125–26.
    No. 20-5969         Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.    Page 46
    from the Nineteenth-Century Legislative Ashes of a Fourteenth-Century Common-Law Liberty?,
    17 N.Y.L.F. 335, 337–39 (1971). According to Means, the failure of the court in Twinslayer’s to
    convict those accused of performing abortions confirms that abortion “was not an offense of any
    kind, no matter at what stage of gestation it was performed.” Id. at 342. The Roe majority came
    to largely the same conclusion.
    But Means was wrong. As multiple scholars have established (without answer), early
    common-law cases showed that “abortion was a crime,” even though “difficulties in pleading
    and proof barred prosecution and conviction” in many instances. Byrn, 41 Fordham L. Rev. at
    819; see also Destro, 63 Calif. L. Rev. at 1267–78; Justin B. Dyer, Slavery, Abortion, and the
    Politics of Constitutional Meaning 105–32 (2013). These cases were difficult to prove because
    to successfully bring a homicide case, the state had to show (1) that the child was alive before the
    abortion and (2) that the abortion caused the child’s death. Byrn, 41 Fordham L. Rev. at 817. As
    one might expect, the rudimentary nature of scientific knowledge and abortion technology made
    it difficult for prosecutors to prove either, let alone both.      Joshua J. Craddock, Protecting
    Prenatal Persons: Does the Fourteenth Amendment Prohibit Abortion?, 40 Harv. J.L. & Pub.
    Pol’y 539, 553 (2017). But “nothing in these cases . . . suggest[s] that abortion was regarded as a
    ‘freedom.’” Byrn, 41 Fordham L. Rev. at 819. After all, evidentiary challenges are a world
    away from a substantive claim that the common law tolerated abortion, much less protected it as
    a right.
    The 1601 Sims’ Case illustrates the point. The Queen’s Bench held that attempted
    abortion was indictable as murder if a born-alive child later died, but only if there were marks of
    an abortion. It reasoned that the marks provided the necessary link between the abortion and the
    child’s death: The court could consider “whether [those] wounds were the cause of the death or
    not.” Sims’ Case (1601) 75 Eng. Rep. 1075, 1075–76 (QB). But again, this high evidentiary
    hurdle did not mean that the common law condoned abortion. To the contrary, Sims shows that
    the common law protected human life as soon as it could be reliably detected, notwithstanding
    defendant-protective evidentiary rules.     For example, it was clear to Lord Coke, who was
    attorney general at the time, that even if the child was born dead and the person who performed
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                 Page 47
    the abortion could not be indicted for murder, the abortion was still considered “a great
    misprision.” 3 Coke, Institutes, at 50.
    The cases that followed Sims prove the same. Abortion was consistently tried under
    common law in both England and America. See, e.g., R. v. Webb, ASSI 35/44/7 m.18 (1602)
    (reproduced in part in Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 193) (pardoned); Commonwealth v.
    Bangs, 
    9 Mass. (1 Tyng) 387
    , 387–88 (1812); State v. Cooper, 
    22 N.J.L. 52
    , 54–58 (N.J. 1849);
    Mills v. Commonwealth, 
    13 Pa. 631
    , 633–34 (1850); Abrams v. Foshee, 
    3 Iowa 274
    , 278–80
    (1856); see also Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 194 n.84 (collecting seventeenth-century
    cases); Finnis, 7 Acad. Questions at 11; 
    id. at 15
     (discussing a 1652 case finding Captain
    William Mitchell guilty of felony charges for having “Murtherously endeavored to destroy or
    Murder the Child by him begotten in the Womb of the Said Susan Warren” (quoting 10 Md.
    Archives 81 (Browne ed.))).
    Blackstone, the preeminent jurist of the common law, serves a final blow.                          While
    Blackstone was “clearly aware of the authorities cited by Professor Means in his attempt to
    undermine Coke’s exposition of the law,” he found them unpersuasive. Keown, Abortion,
    Doctors and the Law, at 10. Indeed, the first chapter of Blackstone’s four-volume treatise
    discusses the rights of the child in the womb. See 1 Blackstone, Commentaries *125–26.
    Blackstone said that abortion was “a very heinous misdemeanor” as life is “a right inherent by
    nature in every individual; and it begins in contemplation of law as soon as an infant is able to
    stir in the mother’s womb.” Id.10
    Given these authorities, the Roe majority’s first conclusion that abortion was not a
    criminal offense at common law cannot stand.
    Its second conclusion fares no better. The majority asserted that it “was not until after the
    War Between the States that [abortion] legislation began generally to replace the common law.”
    Roe, 
    410 U.S. at 139
    . Not so. According to one scholar, by 1849, eighteen of the thirty states in
    10
    The quickening distinction was designed to “protect human life as soon as it could be discerned”; it
    does not reflect a judgment that the unborn child deserved less protection at an earlier stage. Joshua J. Craddock,
    Protecting Prenatal Persons: Does the Fourteenth Amendment Prohibit Abortion?, 40 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 539,
    554 (2017); see also Keown, Abortion, Doctors and the Law, at 3; Byrn, 41 Fordham L. Rev. at 825.
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                  Page 48
    the Union had passed statutes limiting abortion. Eugene Quay, Justifiable Abortion–Medical and
    Legal Ethics, 
    49 Geo. L.J. 395
     app. 1 at 447–520 (1961) (collecting statutes). At the end of
    1864, twenty-seven of the Nation’s thirty-six states had such laws. 
    Id.
     On the eve of the
    Fourteenth Amendment’s ratification, this number had risen to thirty states. Id.; see also Roe,
    
    410 U.S. at
    174–75 & n.1 (Rehnquist, J., dissenting) (noting that the number was thirty-six when
    including the territories). The tide continued to shift in favor of greater abortion restrictions
    during the Reconstruction Era. Of the seven states that lacked abortion restrictions in 1868—
    Delaware, Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, Rhode Island, South Carolina, and Tennessee—
    all but one adopted abortion statutes by 1896. See Quay, 
    49 Geo. L.J. 395
     app. 1 at 447–520.
    And the last of those states passed its statute by 1910. See 
    id.
     at 475–76.
    Undeterred, the Roe majority continued to its third and final conclusion: The “few state
    courts called upon to interpret their [abortion] laws in the late 19th and early 20th centuries []
    focus[ed] on the State’s interest in protecting the woman’s health rather than in preserving the
    embryo and fetus.” 
    410 U.S. at 151
    . That too is mistaken. Consider three readily available
    examples. The Supreme Court of New Jersey noted that its 1872 abortion law was enacted “to
    protect the life of the child also, and inflict the same punishment, in case of its death, as if the
    mother should die.” State v. Gedicke, 
    43 N.J.L. 86
    , 90 (N.J. Sup. Ct. 1881). Similarly, in
    Alabama, one state appellate court reasoned that “from the first day of its uterine life[]” an
    unborn child “acquire[s] a legal and moral status that entitles it to the same protection as that
    guaranteed to human beings in extrauterine life.” Trent v. State, 
    73 So. 834
    , 836 (Ala. Ct. App.
    1916). Ohio’s highest court also construed its abortion statute as intended to “protect women
    and unborn babes from dangerous criminal practice.” State v. Tippie, 
    105 N.E. 75
    , 77 (Ohio
    1913). And this is just the tip of the iceberg.11
    11
    Many other cases described anti-abortion laws as designed, at least in part, to protect the unborn child.
    See, e.g., State v. Bassett, 
    194 P. 867
    , 868 (N.M. 1921); State v. Powell, 
    106 S.E. 133
     (N.C. 1921); State v.
    Ausplund, 
    167 P. 1019
    , 1022–23 (Ore. 1909); Weightnovel v. State, 
    35 So. 857
    , 858–59 (Fla. 1903); Worthington v.
    State, 
    48 A. 355
    , 357 (Md. 1901); State v. Alcorn, 
    64 P. 1014
    , 1019 (Idaho 1901); State v. Crook, 
    51 P. 1091
    , 1093
    (Utah 1898); Moore v. State, 
    40 S.W. 287
    , 289–95 (Tex. Ct. Crim. App. 1897); Hatchard v. State, 
    48 N.W. 380
    , 381
    (Wis. 1891); People v. Sessions, 
    26 N.W. 291
    , 293 (Mich. 1886); Railing v. Commonwealth, 
    1 A. 314
    , 315 (Pa.
    1885); State v. Watson, 
    1 P. 770
    , 771–72 (Kan. 1883); Earll v. People, 
    99 Ill. 123
    , 132 (1881); Dougherty v. People,
    
    1 Colo. 514
    , 522 (1872); State v. Moore, 
    25 Iowa 128
    , 131–32 (1868); State v. Howard, 
    32 Vt. 380
    , 399–401
    (1859); Smith v. State, 
    33 Me. 48
    , 57–59 (1851).
    No. 20-5969      Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 49
    The courts weren’t alone. As noted, the latter half of the nineteenth century saw a wave
    of new abortion laws across the Nation. And during this period, twenty-one states and the
    District of Columbia provided for the same punishment for the death of either the mother or the
    unborn child. Witherspoon, 17 St. Mary’s L.J. at 40–41. Meanwhile, only three states gave a
    heavier punishment for the death of the mother than for the death of the unborn child. Id. at 41.
    Supporters of anti-abortion statutes spoke openly about the importance of protecting the unborn
    child. As one scholar said, “[o]ne could pick almost any anti-abortion tract from the nineteenth
    century, open it at random, and find the argument.” Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 322.
    What’s more, doctors helped drive that nationwide wave of legislation to protect unborn
    children at every stage of gestation. Why? Because medical advances confirmed that an unborn
    child is a living and distinct human being from the moment of conception. The American
    Medical Association, for example, rejected the notion “that the fetus is not alive till after the
    period of quickening” and implored lawmakers to remedy any “defects of our laws, both
    common and statute, as regards the independent and actual existence of the child before birth as
    a living being.” Report of the Committee on Criminal Abortion, in 12 Transactions of the
    American Medical Association 75–76 (1859). The states listened: By 1868, the overwhelming
    majority of states had “incriminated abortional acts prior to quickening.” Byrn, 41 Fordham L
    Rev. at 836; see also Dellapenna, Dispelling Myths, at 315–17. The quickening rule had outlived
    its evidentiary purpose. It is little wonder that Chief Justice John Tenney of the Maine Supreme
    Court could say that “jurists in all countries where an enlightened jurisprudence exists in
    practice” had abandoned “the quickening distinction.” I.T. Dana, Report of the Committee on the
    Production of Abortion, in 5 Transactions of the Maine Medical Association 38 (1869).
    Perhaps sensing its weak historical footing, the Roe majority switched horses midstream.
    Rather than argue that the right to abortion was affirmatively protected in early America, it
    contended that abortion was simply not forbidden. From this the Roe majority inferred that “a
    woman enjoyed a substantially broader right to terminate a pregnancy than she does in most
    States today.” 
    410 U.S. at 140
     (emphasis added). That inference is wrong. A right to do
    something because the state has not yet regulated it is quite different from a right to do
    something because the state cannot regulate it. Cf. PennEast Pipeline Co. v. New Jersey, 141 S.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 50
    Ct. 2244, 2261 (2021) (“[T]he nonuse[] of a power does not disprove its existence.” (citation
    omitted)). And as discussed above, almost every state and territory had in fact passed laws
    limiting or prohibiting abortion by the end of the nineteenth century. By contrast, the Roe
    majority did not provide a single example of a state that legally guaranteed an affirmative right to
    abortion at either the time of the Founding or during the Reconstruction Era. That silence is not
    just deafening. It should end the debate.
    Under any test for evaluating the historical pedigree of an alleged right, the right to an
    abortion does not just miss the mark. It flunks out.
    3.
    The Court quietly retired Roe’s historical arguments nineteen years later in Casey.
    Though the controlling joint opinion in Casey stated that “[o]ur Constitution is a covenant
    running from the first generation of Americans to us,” its historical horizons stretch only as far
    back as Roe itself. Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 901
    . The opinion offered no historical evidence that could
    ground a right to abortion. Only Chief Justice Rehnquist’s dissent engaged with the history
    when he repeated his admonitions from Roe that regulations limiting abortion are deeply rooted
    in our Nation’s heritage. And most tellingly, Justice Blackmun (Roe’s author) did not mention
    Cyril Means in his concurrence, much less Roe’s strained reading of the common law or
    nineteenth-century American caselaw.
    In short, Casey shifted the goalposts. While the Roe majority purported to ground a right
    to abortion in history, the Casey plurality instead justified the right under the theory that the
    Constitution is an aspirational document. Although the Constitution’s words stay the same, the
    plurality reasoned that each “generation must learn anew that the Constitution’s written terms
    embody ideas and aspirations that must survive more ages than one.” 
    Id.
    Even accepting Casey’s logic, the right to abortion cannot stand as it currently exists. If
    the Casey plurality truly believed that we have a living Constitution, then courts should—indeed,
    must—consider what has happened since Casey was decided nearly thirty years ago. In the past,
    when the Court has “updated” our constitutional charter on living constitutional grounds, it has
    aimed to identify values that are purportedly embodied in the Constitution but not grounded in its
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 51
    text. Casey, for example, identified personal dignity and autonomy as values in the Constitution
    that grounded a right to abortion. See 
    505 U.S. at 851
    . The Court then defined the scope of the
    right, drawing a line at viability. But how do living constitutionalists assess whether this line
    still comports with an evolving constitution? They often consider (1) public opinion (usually
    demonstrated by what the states are doing), (2) the international community’s general practices,
    and (3) new empirical evidence. See, e.g., Gregg v. Georgia, 
    428 U.S. 153
    , 179–81 (1976);
    Roper, 
    543 U.S. at
    574–76; Lawrence v. Texas, 
    539 U.S. 558
    , 571–73 (2003); Printz v. United
    States, 
    521 U.S. 898
    , 976–77 (1997) (Breyer, J., dissenting); Dist. Attorney’s Office for Third
    Jud. Dist. v. Osborne, 
    557 U.S. 52
    , 104 (2009) (Souter, J., dissenting). And examining these
    sources reveals that the test the Court manufactured in Casey can’t be sustained.                            Living
    constitutionalism created Casey, but now it should dismantle it.
    First, as a matter of public opinion, abortion remains one of the most hotly contested
    issues in American life. In recent years, many state legislatures, representing tens of millions of
    Americans, have adopted new protections for unborn children even in the face of Casey’s
    strictures.12 One study reported that states enacted 90 laws restricting abortion in the first six
    months of 2021 alone—more “than in any year since the Roe v. Wade decision was handed down
    in 1973.” Elizabeth Nash & Sophia Naide, State Policy Trends at Midyear 2021: Already the
    Worst Legislative Year Ever for U.S. Abortion Rights, Guttmacher Inst. (July 1, 2021). This
    ongoing flurry of legislative action suggests that, if a moral consensus does emerge on abortion,
    there’s every chance it could be one that protects the life of the unborn at most stages of
    gestation. Indeed, public polling has consistently shown that two-thirds of Americans support
    limiting abortion after the first trimester.13           See, e.g., Randy Beck, Twenty-Week Abortion
    12
    Forty-three states currently have gestational limits on abortion, twenty-one states ban partial-birth
    abortions, thirteen states mandate counseling on fetal pain, and twenty-five states require waiting periods after
    counseling. An Overview of Abortion Laws, Guttmacher Inst. (Sept. 1, 2021), http://www.guttmacher.org/state-
    policy/explore/overview-abortion-laws. And that doesn’t include states that have unsuccessfully tried to
    restrict abortion. Courts have enjoined laws banning partial-birth abortion in eleven states and waiting-period laws
    in four. 
    Id.
    13
    The majority points to polling that shows only 27% of the population supports making abortion laws
    stricter. But the polling also shows even fewer support making abortion laws more lenient (17%) or are satisfied
    with the current state of abortion law (11%). If anything, this back-and-forth over polling resembles a tennis match
    more than a sober exercise of judging. It also reveals the problematic nature of relying on public consensus to guide
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                    Page 52
    Statutes: Four Arguments, 
    43 Hastings Const. L.Q. 187
    , 199 (2016); Americans’ Opinions on
    Abortion,       Knights       of     Columbus/Marist           Poll     National       Survey       (Jan.      2021),
    http://www.kofc.org/en/resources/news-room/polls/kofc-national-survey-with-tables012021.pdf;
    Abortion, Gallup, https://news.gallup.com/poll/1576/abortion.aspx.
    Second, “the United States is an outlier within the international community” when it
    comes to abortion. 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 39-15-214
    (a)(50)–(52). Of the sixty-seven countries that
    allow abortion “on request,” at least forty-six restrict its availability after the first trimester (or
    earlier).     See The World’s Abortion Laws, Ctr. for Reprod. Rts. (Aug. 18, 2021),
    https://maps.reproductiverights.org/worldabortionlaws.                Portugal, for example, bans abortion
    after ten weeks and, even before then, an abortion can be obtained only after a three-day waiting
    period. Germany similarly requires a three-day waiting period but prohibits abortion after
    fourteen weeks unless there is a medical necessity. Strafgesetzbuch [StGB] [Penal Code] Nov.
    13, 1998, BGBI. I, §§ 218, 218a. And France likewise proscribes abortion after fourteen weeks
    unless two physicians certify that the abortion is performed because of severe infant
    abnormalities or will prevent grave harm to the woman’s health. Code de la Santé Publique
    [Public Health Code] art. L2212-1, L2213-1 (Fr.).14
    That’s to say nothing of the 117 countries that either ban abortion outright or sharply
    limit its availability to narrow instances. The World’s Abortion Laws, Ctr. for Reprod. Rts.
    (Aug. 18, 2021), https://maps.reproductiverights.org/worldabortionlaws. In Poland, for example,
    abortion is limited to cases of rape, incest, or when the woman’s health is at risk. By contrast,
    only seven countries join us in permitting abortions after twenty weeks. Id. And this list
    includes China and North Korea. That alone should give us pause.
    constitutional interpretation. How is a judge to determine when such a consensus exists? Because judges are
    unequipped to answer that question, I think the better approach is to look to the text and history of the Constitution.
    14
    Gestational limits are typically calculated from the first day of the last menstrual period, which is
    considered to occur two weeks prior to conception. Germany and France, however, calculate gestational limits from
    the date of conception.        See The World’s Abortion Laws, Ctr. for Reprod. Rts. (Aug. 18, 2021),
    https://maps reproductiverights.org/worldabortionlaws. I control for this variance by extending the limits by two
    weeks.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 53
    In sum, international practice supports far greater constitutional protection for unborn
    children than our current jurisprudence permits.
    Third, the steady march of science undermines the Court’s decisions in Roe and Casey.
    As to the question “when life begins,” the Roe majority maintained that “at [that] point in the
    development of man’s knowledge,” it was “not in a position to speculate.” 
    410 U.S. at 159
    .
    Whether or not the scientific answer to that question was clear then, it is now. From fertilization,
    an embryo (and later, fetus) is alive and possesses its unique DNA. Enrica Bianchi, et al., Juno
    Is the Egg Izumo Receptor and Is Essential for Mammalian Fertilization, 508 Nature 483, 483
    (2014) (“Fertilization occurs when sperm and egg recognize each other and fuse to form a new,
    genetically distinct organism.”). Moreover, from conception on, the human embryo is “fully
    programmed and has the active disposition to use that information to develop himself or herself
    to the mature stage of a human being.” Robert P. George & Christopher Tollefsen, Embryo:
    A Defense of Human Life 50 (2008).           Indeed, the Supreme Court has recognized these
    advancements, noting that “by common understanding and scientific terminology, a fetus is a
    living organism while within the womb, whether or not it is viable outside the womb.”
    Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 147
    ; see also Hope Clinic v. Ryan, 
    195 F.3d 857
    , 887 (7th Cir. 1999)
    (Posner, C.J., dissenting) (“Obviously a one-day old embryo, like the cells that compose a living
    human body, is alive, not ‘dead.’”).
    In addition, new medical innovations have deepened our understanding of fetal
    development. For example, ultrasound technology now allows parents to “watch the growth and
    development of the[ir] unborn child in a way previous generations could never have imagined.”
    Hamilton v. Scott, 
    97 So.3d 728
    , 746 (Ala. 2012) (Parker, J., concurring). These images reveal
    how an unborn child visibly takes on “the human form” in all relevant aspects by 12 weeks’
    gestation. Cf. Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 160
    . In the three decades since Casey, “neonatal and
    medical science . . . now graphically portrays . . . how a baby develops sensitivity to external
    stimuli and to pain much earlier than was then believed.” McCorvey v. Hill, 
    385 F.3d 846
    , 852
    (5th Cir. 2004) (Jones, J., concurring). And it “takes no expert prognosticator” to recognize that
    these scientific advances will continue. 
    Id. at 853
    .
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.        Page 54
    Indeed, medical researchers are hard at work every day “push[ing] the frontiers of fetal
    ‘viability’ ever closer to the date of conception.” 
    Id.
     Just over a year ago, doctors in Minnesota
    set a new world record by successfully delivering a baby at just over twenty-one weeks—nearly
    five months before his due date.        Alaa Elassar, The World’s Most Premature Baby Has
    Celebrated His First Birthday After Beating 0% Odds of Surviving, CNN (June 19, 2021).
    Though he was given a “0% chance of survival,” Richard Scott William Hutchinson celebrated
    his first birthday just a few months ago. 
    Id.
     Stories such as Hutchinson’s will continue to pile
    up in the coming years. And yet the Roe/Casey framework gives judges—not lawmakers—
    responsibility to assess these scientific developments. This mismatch of functions “leaves our
    nation in a position of willful blindness to evolving knowledge.” McCorvey, 
    385 F.3d at 853
    (Jones, J., concurring).    Living constitutionalism purports to take changing empirical facts
    seriously. If that is true, then the Roe/Casey framework must be reexamined.
    *       *       *
    I would not take the living constitutional route. Dismissing our constitutional text and
    history—as the Casey plurality did—is never wise. After all, we must remember that because
    “the private stock of reason . . . in each man is small, . . . individuals would do better to avail
    themselves of the general bank and capital of nations and of ages.” 3 Edmund Burke, Reflections
    on the Revolution in France, in The Harvard Classics 143, 223 (Charles W. Eliot ed., 1980)
    (1790). And judicial humility is especially important when it comes to constitutional decisions.
    The Casey plurality appeared to understand that Roe departed from the Constitution’s
    original meaning. But it chose to rely on stare decisis to reaffirm Roe even while questioning its
    soundness. See Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 853, 857
    , 860–61. These reservations possibly explain
    Casey’s unusual embrace of a “new[] keep-what-you-want-and-throw-away-the-rest version” of
    stare decisis. Id. at 993 (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). While Roe
    recognized a constitutional right to abortion, it held that states could still restrict abortion during
    the second and third trimesters of pregnancy. The Casey plurality threw that bright-line (though
    historically unmoored) trimester test out the window. In its place, the plurality instituted a
    nebulous “undue burden” test: Until an unborn child reaches viability, states cannot impose
    restrictions that unduly burden a right to abortion. Id. at 878–79.
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.   Page 55
    Just as it had with Roe’s trimesters, the Court in Casey “plucked” the undue burden test
    “from nowhere.” Id. at 965 (Rehnquist, C.J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). And it
    shows. Justice Scalia confessed at the time that he did not “understand . . . what the ‘undue
    burden’ test means.” Id. at 993 (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). As lower
    court opinions repeatedly demonstrate, this concept continues to evade comprehension.
    B.
    Predictability and consistency are rare virtues in abortion jurisprudence. That’s because
    the undue burden test we are tasked with applying has proved inherently resistant to neutral and
    principled application. By asking lower courts to figure out when a burden becomes undue,
    Casey poses a set of subjective questions that do not lend themselves to objective answers. Yet
    when deciding “the most heated partisan issues,” “judicial responsibility to avoid standardless
    decisionmaking is at its apex.” June Medical Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2179 (Gorsuch, J., dissenting)
    (citation omitted).
    While abortion is not the only contentious issue that divides courts, it is the most
    prominent issue where courts fail to “evenhandedly apply[] uncontroversial legal doctrines.”
    Thornburgh v. Am. Coll. of Obstetricians & Gynecologists, 
    476 U.S. 747
    , 814 (1986)
    (O’Connor, J., dissenting). Though Justice O’Connor penned those words thirty-five years ago,
    they still ring true today.
    What legal rules and doctrines have suffered at the hand of abortion jurisprudence?
    Statutory interpretation, the rules of civil procedure, the standards for appellate review
    of legislative factfinding, and the First Amendment to name a few. See Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at
    153–54 (statutory interpretation); Whole Woman’s Health v. Hellerstedt, 
    136 S. Ct. 2292
    ,
    2330–31 (2016) (Alito, J., dissenting) (res judicata and severability); June Medical Servs., 140 S.
    Ct. at 2171–72 (Gorsuch, J., dissenting) (legislative factfinding); Hill v. Colorado, 
    530 U.S. 703
    ,
    742–65 (2000) (Scalia, J., dissenting) (First Amendment). And the examples only multiply in
    the lower courts, where abortion often goes hand-in-hand with acrimony. Simply put, “no legal
    rule or doctrine [bearing any link to abortion] is safe from ad hoc nullification.” Madsen v.
    Women’s Health Ctr., Inc., 
    512 U.S. 753
    , 785 (1994) (Scalia, J., concurring) (citations omitted).
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 56
    The disputes don’t just lie at the procedural periphery. Rather, they emanate from
    abortion law’s doctrinal core. When Casey introduced the undue burden test, the plurality
    acknowledged the confusion it set in motion. “Even when jurists reason from shared premises,”
    the plurality predicted that “disagreement [was] inevitable.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 878
    . Yet the
    plurality downplayed these concerns by explaining that disagreement “is to be expected”
    whenever judges fashion “any legal standard which must accommodate life’s complexity.” 
    Id.
    But the problem is that the Roe/Casey framework is so malleable that no two judges can
    even “reason from shared premises.” 
    Id.
     Like a maze, the doctrine forces an arbitrary and
    policy-laden decision at every turn. Here is a sampling of our abortion jurisprudence.
    Undue Burden.      In Casey, the plurality recognized that the “State’s important and
    legitimate interest in potential life” had been given too little weight. 
    Id. at 871
     (cleaned up). The
    plurality believed the undue burden standard would provide a better way to reconcile the State’s
    interest in protecting life with “the woman’s constitutionally protected liberty.” 
    Id. at 876
    .
    What happened after Casey proves otherwise. As the plurality recognized, a state’s
    interest in protecting unborn children is inherently in tension with a woman’s interest in
    obtaining an abortion. In theory, the undue burden test helps courts strike a balance: It says not
    to interfere with either party’s interest unless the state imposes an undue burden. In reality, the
    undue burden test generates more questions than answers. When does a regular, permissible
    burden become an undue burden? The plurality chose not to give an answer beyond “[d]efining
    an ‘undue burden’” as a “‘substantial obstacle.’” Id. at 987 (Scalia, J., concurring in part and
    dissenting in part). With only this amorphous principle as a guidepost, courts are left to tell
    states that they can pass laws that “burden a woman’s right to choose” as long as it’s “not too
    much.” Kathleen M. Sullivan, The Supreme Court, 1991 Term—Foreword: The Justices of
    Rules and Standards, 
    106 Harv. L. Rev. 22
    , 33 (1992); see also “Undue,” Black’s Law
    Dictionary (6th ed. 1990) (defining “undue” as “[m]ore than necessary”). Because courts have
    free rein to decide what is “too much,” the undue burden test allows a “district judge to give
    effect to his personal preferences about abortion.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 992
     (Scalia, J., concurring
    in part and dissenting in part).
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.     Page 57
    The last three decades have confirmed Justice Scalia’s fears. Rather than mend the
    Nation’s fractures, the Casey regime’s lack of concrete guidance has generated decades of bitter
    litigation and widening circuit splits. Consider, for instance, the circuit split over parental
    notification requirements. Compare Planned Parenthood v. Camblos, 
    155 F.3d 352
    , 367 (4th
    Cir. 1998) (en banc), with Planned Parenthood v. Adams, 
    937 F.3d 973
    , 985–90 (7th Cir. 2019),
    and Planned Parenthood v. Miller, 
    63 F.3d 1452
    , 1460 (8th Cir. 1995). Or the split about laws
    requiring abortion providers to make certain disclosures. Compare EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr.
    v. Beshear, 
    920 F.3d 421
    , 430–32 (6th Cir. 2019), and Planned Parenthood v. Rounds, 
    686 F.3d 889
    , 893–906 (8th Cir. 2012), with Stuart v. Camnitz, 
    774 F.3d 238
    , 244–50 (4th Cir. 2014).
    Another divide has emerged over nondiscrimination provisions such as section 217. Compare
    Preterm, 994 F.3d at 535, with Planned Parenthood v. Comm’r of Ind. State Dep’t of Health,
    
    888 F.3d 300
    , 307–10 (7th Cir. 2018). Even the question of whether states may prohibit certain
    types of dilation & extraction procedures—namely, the dismemberment of a still-living unborn
    child—has produced a circuit split. Compare Whole Woman’s Health v. Paxton, No. 17-51060,
    
    2021 WL 3661318
    , at *1 (5th Cir. Aug. 18, 2021) (en banc), with W. Ala. Women’s Ctr. v.
    Williamson, 
    900 F.3d 1310
    , 1319 (11th Cir. 2018), and EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr., P.S.C. v.
    Friedlander, 
    960 F.3d 785
    , 806–07 (6th Cir. 2020). These conflicts, and others like them,
    highlight that an undue burden is in the eye of the beholder.
    It is similarly hard to shake the impression that the undue burden test only permits a state
    to protect an unborn child’s life only “so long as it is not too successful.” Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 992
    (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). A state that wishes to protect unborn
    children will naturally pass laws aimed at reducing the number of abortions. But because Casey
    offers no concrete way to assess when a burden becomes “undue,” judges often think that any
    decrease in the number of abortions fits the bill. They reason that a law that’s too successful at
    decreasing abortions impermissibly “expresses a preference for childbirth over abortion.” 
    Id. at 883
    . Yet efficacy is an odd justification for torpedoing an otherwise constitutional law. That
    turns the undue burden test into nothing more than a policy call made by judges. After all, how
    far a law can go in expressing a preference is a “value judgment” that can’t be “demonstrated
    true or false by factual inquiry or legal reasoning.” Stenberg v. Carhart, 
    530 U.S. 914
    , 954
    (2000) (Scalia, J., dissenting).
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                  Page 58
    The more faithful approach is to calculate what fraction of women were persuaded to
    keep their child (and thus weren’t unduly burdened) as opposed to those who were stymied from
    accessing an abortion. But that approach comes with its own challenges. I do not envy the
    district judge who must determine how each woman chose to exercise her “right to define [her]
    own concept of existence, of meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life.”
    Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 851
    . To make matters worse, abortion laws are often challenged before they
    even go into effect. So judges are stuck guessing as to the numbers and what they mean.15
    Unsurprisingly, many judges either skip this step in the analysis altogether or abandon statistical
    precision for threadbare speculation.
    Large Fractions. In most areas of law, facial challenges to a statute’s constitutionality
    must clear a high bar. The plaintiff must show that the statute is unconstitutional in virtually all
    of its applications. United States v. Salerno, 
    481 U.S. 739
    , 745 (1987). But abortion is different.
    Under the undue burden test, courts analyze only whether an abortion restriction “will operate as
    a substantial obstacle” “in a large fraction of the cases in which” it “is relevant.” Casey,
    
    505 U.S. at 895
    . This standard is riddled with ambiguities.
    For one, no court has definitively defined a “large fraction.” Instead, we’ve each taken
    an I-know-it-when-I-see-it approach that treats the test as “more conceptual than mathematical.”
    Cincinnati Women’s Servs. v. Taft, 
    468 F.3d 361
    , 374 (6th Cir. 2006).                          Not surprisingly,
    everyone sees it differently.
    In this circuit, for instance, we’ve concluded that 12.5 percent is not enough to trigger an
    undue burden. 
    Id.
     And we’ve suggested that the line might be north of 50 percent as “it would
    be odd to hold that a law regulating abortion is facially unconstitutional when it can be applied
    consistent with the Constitution in a majority of cases.” Bristol Reg’l Women’s Ctr., 7 F.4th at
    15
    This is the case even with post-enactment challenges. Take one example from just a few months ago. In
    Bristol Regional Women’s Center v. Slatery, we affirmed a Tennessee law that imposes a 48-hour waiting period
    before all abortions. 
    7 F.4th 478
     (6th Cir. 2021) (en banc). The challengers pointed out that abortions in Tennessee
    dropped nine percent the year following the waiting period’s enactment. They argued that decrease alone proved the
    law poses an undue burden. But the challengers failed to realize that the drop in abortions could have stemmed from
    “the persuasive power of the law” rather than “its burdensome qualities.” See A Woman’s Choice-E. Side Women’s
    Clinic v. Newman, 
    305 F.3d 684
    , 714–15 (7th Cir. 2002) (Wood, J., dissenting). And absent additional evidence, we
    had no way to decide between the two.
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.        Page 59
    485. Compare that with the Fifth Circuit, where a divided panel held that 30 percent is not a
    “large fraction.” June Medical Servs. v. Gee, 
    905 F.3d 787
    , 815 (5th Cir. 2018), rev’d on other
    grounds, 
    140 S. Ct. 2103
     (2019). The Ninth Circuit, by contrast, thinks 21.5 percent is a large
    fraction.   See McCormack v. Herzog, 
    788 F.3d 1017
    , 1030 (9th Cir. 2015).                And several
    respected judges have gone as far as to suggest that laws which bar only one or two percent of
    women from obtaining abortions may fail the large fraction test. See, e.g., Greenville Women’s
    Clinic v. Bryant, 
    222 F.3d 157
    , 202 (4th Cir. 2000) (Hamilton, J., dissenting) (noting that it is an
    “undue burden” if the law “can be expected to prevent one or two out of every 100 low-income
    women seeking an abortion from being able to obtain one”); Newman, 
    305 F.3d at 708
     (Wood,
    J., dissenting) (noting that the court would “still be required to enjoin” a law “if it affected ‘only’
    1%” of women). If a court’s answer can range from one to more than fifty percent, then the
    large fraction test is nothing more than a poorly defined math problem.
    These varied results are a product of varied inputs. As this circuit has already noted, the
    Court “has not been clear about how to define the numerator and denominator for the fraction.”
    Preterm, 994 F.3d at 534; see, e.g., Reprod. Health Servs. v. Strange, 
    3 F.4th 1230
    , 1269 (11th
    Cir. 2021) (concluding that the denominator is “roughly four a year—but perhaps several more,”
    and that the numerator is “a handful.”). In Hellerstedt, the Court explained that Casey’s “large
    fraction” should be calculated by looking only to “those [women] for whom [the provision] is an
    actual rather than an irrelevant restriction.” 136 S. Ct. at 2320 (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 895
    ).
    But as Justice Alito noted, that could mean “we are supposed to use the same figure (women
    actually burdened) as both the numerator and the denominator. By my math, that fraction is
    always ‘1.’” 
    Id.
     at 2343 n.11 (Alito, J., dissenting). We know that cannot be right—or else
    every abortion regulation, no matter how minor, would fail. So courts are left, once again, to
    figure out the right answer on their own.
    Benefits & Balancing.      Perhaps recognizing the lower courts’ struggles, the Court
    reframed the undue burden analysis in Hellerstedt. In that case, the majority struck down a
    Texas law regulating abortion clinics. In the process, the majority instructed lower courts to
    “consider the burdens a law imposes on abortion access together with the benefits those laws
    confer.” 136 S. Ct. at 2309. In other words, when analyzing a law that regulates abortion, courts
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 60
    must score the law’s benefits against its burdens to determine whether the law imposes a
    substantial obstacle.
    Four years later, when striking down a similar law from Louisiana, the June Medical
    Court failed to produce a majority opinion.         While the plurality reaffirmed Hellerstedt’s
    balancing test, the Chief Justice’s concurrence concluded that Hellerstedt did not change the
    Casey analysis. 140 S. Ct. at 2135 (Roberts, C.J., concurring in judgment). Instead, courts must
    assess abortion laws on two independent grounds. First, whether the law “pose[s] a substantial
    obstacle to abortion access.” Id. And second, whether the law is “reasonably related to a
    legitimate state interest.” Id. (cleaned up). The Chief Justice noted that under Hellerstedt’s
    balancing test, “equality of treatment is . . . impossible to achieve; predictability is destroyed;
    judicial arbitrariness is facilitated; judicial courage is impaired.”     Id. at 2135–36 (quoting
    Antonin Scalia, The Rule of Law as a Law of Rules, 
    56 U. Chi. L. Rev. 1175
    , 1182 (1989)).
    These concerns arise from abortion’s unique properties. After all, under the plurality’s
    view in June Medical, judges must balance the State’s interests in protecting life and the health
    of the woman against “the woman’s liberty interest in defining her ‘own concept of existence, of
    meaning, of the universe, and of the mystery of human life.’” 
    Id. at 2136
     (quoting Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 851
    ). Weighing such “imponderable values” against one another would be akin to
    “judging whether a particular line is longer than a particular rock is heavy.” 
    Id.
     (citing Bendix
    Autolite Corp. v. Midwesco Enter., Inc., 
    486 U.S. 888
    , 897 (1988) (Scalia, J., concurring in
    judgment)). And this sort of inquiry, when untethered from statutory and constitutional text, is
    not a “job for the courts.” 
    Id.
    Nine months later, however, we had a circuit split over which opinion from June Medical
    controls. Compare EMW Women’s Surgical Ctr., 978 F.3d at 437, and Hopkins v. Jegley,
    
    968 F.3d 912
    , 915 (8th Cir. 2020), with Reprod. Health Servs., 3 F.4th at 1259, and
    Planned Parenthood v. Box, 
    991 F.3d 740
    , 752 (7th Cir. 2021). So today—nearly fifty years
    after Roe—litigants and jurists remain in limbo over the proper constitutional standard.
    Large Fraction Test & Pre-enforcement Challenges.                  In most run-of-the-mill
    constitutional cases, facial challenges are “the most difficult . . . to mount successfully.” City of
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 61
    Los Angeles v. Patel, 
    576 U.S. 409
    , 415 (2015) (citation omitted). As discussed above, that’s
    because the plaintiff faces the “heavy burden” of establishing “that no set of circumstances exists
    under which the Act would be valid.” Salerno, 
    481 U.S. at 745
    .
    But Salerno doesn’t apply in the abortion context. Instead, the Casey plurality crafted the
    enigmatic “large fraction” test, which invalidates laws that can constitutionally apply to many—
    or even most—pregnant women. Coupled with the fact that plaintiffs often challenge abortion
    laws before they go into effect, the test creates a task for judges that is “fundamentally an
    empirical inquiry.” Clare Huntington, The Empirical Turn in Family Law, 
    118 Colum. L. Rev. 227
    , 250 (2018).
    But this is precisely the sort of inquiry that is least suited for pre-enforcement challenges.
    Judges are good at analyzing statutes and reading contracts. By contrast, we are out of our depth
    when we’re asked to predict what would happen if a law went into effect. The confusion only
    doubles when both sides enlist experts offering crosscutting evidence.           For example, it’s
    common for plaintiffs to contend that abortion regulations inflict psychological harms on some
    pregnant women who are seeking an abortion. On the other hand, defendants often offer equally
    compelling testimony about the long-term depression women may experience after obtaining an
    abortion. Compare Women’s Med. Prof’l Corp. v. Voinovich, 
    911 F. Supp. 1051
    , 1078–81 (S.D.
    Ohio 1995) (discussing testimony about the mental health effects for pregnant women who
    cannot obtain abortions), with Whole Woman’s Health All. v. Hill, 
    493 F. Supp. 3d 694
    , 713
    (S.D. Ind. 2020) (considering expert testimony that abortion increases mental health problems
    and suicidal tendencies in women). If district judges must make forecasts that turn on which
    social science studies they buy, we risk turning Article III adjudication into an ad hoc peer-
    review journal process. Judicial commissions come with life tenure and salary protections—not
    a license to engage in statistical guessing games.
    That is exactly why the Framers left contentious public-policy issues, like abortion, to
    state legislatures in the first place. Unlike lawmakers, who can continually reevaluate their
    findings through standing committees and incremental experimentation, judges hearing pre-
    enforcement challenges must make snap calls that begin with no evidence on the ground and end
    with a final judgment that is not easy to amend.
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 62
    *      *       *
    Put together, these doctrinal puzzles are enough to make a judge throw up his or her
    hands in exasperation and ask what he or she is supposed to do. Cf. Planned Parenthood v. Box,
    
    949 F.3d 997
    , 999 (7th Cir. 2019) (Easterbrook, J., concurring in denial of rehearing en banc).
    Just consider some of the questions courts must answer. What constitutes an “undue burden”?
    How about a “substantial” obstacle? What’s a large fraction? How do you calculate the
    denominator? What about the numerator? How do we balance a state’s interests in preventing
    fetal pain, safeguarding the unborn child’s life, and preserving the integrity of its medical
    profession with a woman’s interest in obtaining an abortion? Should we update the undue
    burden test as neonatal science teaches us new things? How do you know if a law prohibited a
    woman from obtaining an abortion or merely persuaded her to choose life? And how can we
    divine future consequences from pre-enforcement challenges? Each of these questions—and
    there are many more—layers discretion upon discretion. Put any three judges on a panel and you
    could get three different—and equally reasonable—answers for each question.
    The undue burden test is “hopelessly unworkable in practice.” Stenberg, 
    530 U.S. at 955
    (Scalia, J., dissenting) (citations omitted). And it is unworkable because it is neither a clear rule
    nor a judicially manageable standard. Cf. Rucho v. Common Cause, 
    139 S. Ct. 2484
    , 2496–98
    (2019). The test has the added vice of being untethered from constitutional or statutory text.
    Instead, it takes judges out of our Article III role and makes us answer questions better left in the
    hands of legislatures. The Founders understood the danger of this. So should we.
    C.
    If I were viewing this case on a fresh slate, the answer would be clear. As the history
    shows, the “Constitution does not constrain the States’ ability to regulate or even prohibit
    abortion.” June Medical Servs., 140 S. Ct. at 2149 (Thomas, J., dissenting). But as a lower court
    judge, I have two constitutional duties: one to the text’s original meaning and another to
    Supreme Court precedent. And when these loyalties split—as they do here—I must follow the
    Court. The structure of our judicial system mandates this fidelity. U.S. Const. art. III, § 1. And
    we honor the rule of law when we honor their decisions.
    No. 20-5969           Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.   Page 63
    Yet even a lower court judge intent on following binding caselaw is often at a loss. As I
    have shown above, our doctrine is so tortured that judges can often make “raw judicial policy
    choices concerning what is ‘appropriate’ abortion legislation” under the banner of applying the
    law. Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 987
     (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). But I cannot
    in good conscience follow suit.
    Distinguished jurists and scholars have concluded that pre-viability bans are inconsistent
    with a good-faith reading of Casey. See, e.g., Planned Parenthood v. Comm’r of the Ind. State
    Dep’t of Health, 
    917 F.3d 532
    , 536 (7th Cir. 2018) (Easterbrook, J., dissenting from denial of
    rehearing en banc) (“Casey and other decisions hold that, until a fetus is viable, a woman is
    entitled to decide whether to bear a child.”); Williamson, 900 F.3d at 1314 (Ed Carnes, J.); O.
    Carter Snead, What It Means to Be Human 163–64 (2020); Michael Stokes Paulsen, The Worst
    Constitutional Decision of All Time, 
    78 Notre Dame L. Rev. 995
    , 995 n.4 (2003); Sherif Girgis,
    Two Obstacles to (Merely) Chipping Away at Roe in Dobbs 6 (Aug. 19, 2021) (unpublished
    manuscript), https://ssrn.com/abstract=3907787.           And I cannot find a principled reason to
    disagree with them. See Casey, 
    505 U.S. at 846
     (“Before viability, the State’s interests are not
    strong enough to support a prohibition of abortion or the imposition of a substantial obstacle to
    the woman’s effective right to elect the procedure.”). Thus, Casey requires me to affirm the
    district judge’s preliminary injunction with respect to section 216. Only the Supreme Court can
    tow our jurisprudence back to the safe harbor of democratic legitimacy.
    III.
    Though Supreme Court precedent compels me to concur with respect to section 216, the
    majority’s decision to strike down section 217 is its error alone. And the error is all the more
    egregious when you consider the circumstances. Just this year, our en banc court issued a
    thorough opinion holding that Ohio’s nearly identical anti-discrimination law did not violate a
    woman’s substantive due process rights. Preterm, 994 F.3d at 535. Tennessee’s law adds race
    and gender to the protected class. Hardly novel. In striking down the Tennessee provision as
    void for vagueness, the majority reveals that abortion exceptionalism knows no bounds. The “ad
    hoc nullification machine” hums on. Madsen, 
    512 U.S. at 785
     (Scalia, J., concurring in part and
    dissenting in part).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.        Page 64
    A.
    Start with the basics. A law is unconstitutionally vague if (1) it fails to give fair notice to
    ordinary people (in our case, reasonable physicians) of what conduct is prohibited or (2) it invites
    arbitrary and discriminatory enforcement. Kolender v. Lawson, 
    461 U.S. 352
    , 357 (1983); see
    Planned Parenthood v. DeWine, 
    696 F.3d 490
    , 502 (6th Cir. 2012).                In pre-enforcement
    challenges, courts focus on the first prong, since the possibility that the statute might be enforced
    in odd ways is still “speculative” when it has not yet been enforced. Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 150
    ;
    DeWine, 696 F.3d at 505–06.           Courts must be vigilant in making sure a statute is
    understandable—people “of common intelligence cannot be required to guess at the meaning.”
    Winters v. New York, 
    333 U.S. 507
    , 515 (1948). And when dealing with a criminal statute, we
    look to see if that statute has “a core of understandable meaning.” Trs. of Ind. Univ. v. Curry,
    
    918 F.3d 537
    , 540 (7th Cir. 2019) (Easterbrook, J.).
    But the fact that there may be some “uncertainty at the margins does not condemn a
    statute.” 
    Id.
     Law professor hypotheticals and dreamed-up scenarios will not render a statute
    void for vagueness. After all, if they did, no statute could pass constitutional muster. Indeed,
    under the Supreme Court’s jurisprudence, if we can determine a statute’s core meaning, that is
    “enough to reject a vagueness challenge, leaving to future adjudication the inevitable questions at
    the statutory margins.” 
    Id. at 541
    ; see also United States v. Williams, 
    553 U.S. 285
    , 306 (2008)
    (noting that close cases are not addressed by “the doctrine of vagueness, but by the requirement
    of proof beyond a reasonable doubt”).
    To determine a statute’s core meaning, we start with the text. Section 217 says:
    A person shall not perform or induce, or attempt to perform or induce, an abortion
    upon a pregnant woman if the person knows that the woman is seeking the
    abortion because of [the sex, race, or potential Down syndrome diagnosis of] the
    unborn child.
    
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 39-15-217
    (b)–(d). Any reasonable physician would have fair notice of how
    it works. When a patient requests an abortion, the doctor asks himself: Does she want this
    abortion because the unborn child is a boy (or girl)? Of a particular race? Likely to have Down
    syndrome? If the answer to any of these questions is yes, then section 217 forbids the doctor
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                   Page 65
    from performing the abortion. If the answer is no or I don’t know, then the doctor is free to
    perform the procedure. We can identify section 217’s core meaning, so our inquiry should end
    there.
    But the challengers and the majority insist that section 217 is far more convoluted. They
    target “knows” and “because of.” Only lawyers, “indoctrinated from the first days of law school
    to find ambiguity in even the clearest of pronouncements,” could find these everyday terms
    confusing. Brett M. Kavanaugh, Fixing Statutory Interpretation, 
    129 Harv. L. Rev. 2118
    , 2139
    (2016) (book review).            No amount of exegesis can transform everyday English into
    unconstitutional vagueness.
    Begin with “knows.” The statute defines “knowing” as being “aware of the nature of the
    conduct or that the circumstances exist.” 
    Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 39-11-106
    (a)(22), 39-11-302(b).
    This requires actual awareness; negligence does not suffice. Doctors are not held to account for
    what they reasonably should have, but in fact did not, infer. See State v. Pendergrass, 
    13 S.W.3d 389
    , 394–95 (Tenn. Crim. App. 1999).
    As for “because of,” the General Assembly did not define the term. But it didn’t have
    to—we apply its ordinary meaning. See Burrage v. United States, 
    571 U.S. 204
    , 210 (2014).16
    Colloquially, the phrase means “on account of,” or “by reason of.” The American Heritage
    Dictionary 158 (5th ed. 2018); Webster’s Third New International Dictionary 194 (2002); 2 The
    Oxford English Dictionary 41 (2d ed. 1989).                  As in, what is the reason for this patient’s
    abortion?17
    16
    In Burrage, two circuit courts split over the type of causation meant by “results from.” The Seventh
    Circuit said it codified “but for” causation. United States v. Hatfield, 
    591 F.3d 945
    , 948 (7th Cir. 2010). The Eighth
    Circuit, by contrast, said it only meant a “contributing cause.” United States v. Monnier, 
    412 F.3d 859
    , 862 (8th Cir.
    2005). But neither court held it was void for vagueness. This just goes to show how far the majority is willing to go
    to declare this provision constitutionally void.
    17
    Indeed, Tennessee statutes seem to use “because of” and “by reason of” interchangeably in the
    discrimination context. Compare 
    Tenn. Code Ann. § 50-3-409
    (a) (prohibiting discrimination against an employee
    “because of the exercise . . . of any rights afforded by this chapter”), with 
    id.
     § 49-5-606(a)(1) (prohibiting
    discrimination “by reason of [an employee’s] exercise of rights guaranteed by this part”), and id. § 50-2-202(c)
    (prohibiting discrimination “by reason of any action taken by the employee” to invoke legal rights).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.       Page 66
    The legal meaning follows from the ordinary meaning. “Because of” denotes causation.
    See Univ. of Tex. Sw. Med. Ctr. v. Nassar, 
    570 U.S. 338
    , 346–48 (2013). And unless the statute
    tells us otherwise, courts generally interpret the term to require at least “but-for” causality. Id.;
    Gross v. FBL Fin. Servs., 
    557 U.S. 167
    , 176 (2009); United States v. Miller, 
    767 F.3d 585
    , 591–
    92 (6th Cir. 2014). In other words, but for this cause (or reason), would the same result have
    occurred?
    Applying this understanding to section 217, sex, race, or Down syndrome status need not
    be the only or most important reason for the abortion. Goree v. United Parcel Serv., Inc., 
    490 S.W.3d 413
    , 438 n.11 (Tenn. Ct. App. 2015); accord Burrage, 571 U.S. at 211. But it must be a
    dispositive reason. So to succeed in any section 217 case, the prosecution must prove beyond a
    reasonable doubt that the woman would not have had the abortion but for the protected
    characteristic and that the doctor knew this.
    Context confirms this ordinary meaning.          Countless discrimination and hate-crime
    statutes nationwide use because of like section 217 does. See, e.g., 
    18 U.S.C. § 249
     (federal
    hate-crime statute); 
    29 U.S.C. § 623
     (age discrimination statute); 
    42 U.S.C. § 12112
    (b)
    (Americans with Disabilities Act). Indeed, many of these statutes have been interpreted in a
    similar manner. See Miller, 767 F.3d at 591 (federal hate-crime statute); Gross, 
    557 U.S. at
    176–
    77 (age discrimination statute); Lewis v. Humboldt Acquisition Corp., 
    681 F.3d 312
    , 321 (6th
    Cir. 2012) (Americans with Disabilities Act). And none have been struck down as void for
    vagueness. See, e.g., United States v. Jenkins, 
    909 F. Supp. 2d 758
    , 776–79 (E.D. Ky. 2012)
    (rejecting a vagueness challenge to the federal hate-crime statute); In re M.S., 
    896 P.2d 1365
    ,
    1375–76 (Cal. 1995) (rejecting a vagueness challenge to a California hate-crime statute with a
    broader, contributing-cause interpretation).
    Not to be deterred, the challengers and majority instead home in on the combination of
    “knows” and “because of.” They argue that the two phrases together make section 217 vague.
    No. 20-5969          Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.                 Page 67
    But they’ve got it backwards.               As the Supreme Court has explained, “scienter
    requirements alleviate vagueness concerns”; they don’t create them.18 Gonzales, 
    550 U.S. at 149
    . Indeed, the knowledge requirement here protects doctors who incorrectly (but in good
    faith) conclude that a patient would have sought an abortion regardless of the protected
    characteristic. See DeWine, 696 F.3d at 505. The majority notes that it is often difficult to know
    why a patient makes her decision. Maj. Op. at 26. Perhaps. But if that’s true, then doctors will
    be relieved of any criminal liability. The General Assembly has never required that doctors seek
    out why a patient wants an abortion. Cf. 
    Ark. Code Ann. § 20-16-2103
    (b)(1) (requiring doctors
    to ask patients about evidence of fetal Down syndrome); 
    Miss. Code Ann. § 41-41-407
    (1)
    (mandating that doctors “first confirm[] that the abortion is not being sought because of” a
    protected characteristic). The identified difficulty shields those acting in good faith.
    The challengers (and the majority) respond that section 217 still poses a problem when a
    woman’s ultimate decision is a result of many factors. Imagine a pregnant mother of three,
    working her way through school and experiencing financial hardship, who receives a fetal
    diagnosis of Down syndrome and asks for an abortion. Is she seeking the abortion because of the
    diagnosis? Her busy schedule? A lack of resources? All three? Two of the three? She may not
    know herself. But in that case, nor would her doctor. And section 217 kicks in only if they both
    know that she would have made a different decision but for the diagnosis. In the end, a judge’s
    hypothetical cannot make a statute void for vagueness. See Curry, 918 F.3d at 540. Those hard
    cases are instead best handled in future as-applied challenges. See DeWine, 696 F.3d at 505–06.
    What’s more, section 217 is hardly alone in requiring proof that a defendant knew
    another person’s state of mind. See, e.g., Appellants’ Brief 28 (citing conspiracy, facilitation of a
    felony, rape, and assisted suicide); Brief of Kentucky & 17 Other States as Amici 5–6 (theft of
    property and possession of an eavesdropping device). Countless state and federal laws, for
    example, criminalize the aiding and abetting of a hate crime. To prove a hate crime, the state
    18
    For this reason, the majority’s repeated invocation of Women’s Medical Professional Corp. v. Voinovich,
    
    130 F.3d 187
     (6th Cir. 1997), is unpersuasive. In Voinovich, the statute “contain[ed] no scienter requirement.” 
    Id. at 204
    . Here, by contrast, the statute contains a stringent scienter requirement—actual knowledge. See 
    Tenn. Code Ann. §§ 39-11-106
    (a)(22), 39-11-302(b). And this, coupled with the statute’s “because of” standard, renders the
    statute’s operation clear.
    No. 20-5969        Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 68
    must show that a defendant took certain action because of a victim’s protected characteristic.
    And to prove another individual aided and abetted that hate crime, the state must then show that
    this second individual knew of the crime he was assisting—namely, the first defendant’s action
    because of a protected characteristic. Are those prosecutions all unconstitutional? Under the
    majority’s logic, yes.
    And it doesn’t stop there. Imagine any number of scenarios:
    •   You cannot hire an applicant to work as a schoolteacher if you know a prior
    employer fired her because of allegations of sexual misconduct.
    •   You cannot provide shelter to a person if you know that the person seeks shelter
    because of his recent escape from prison.
    •   You cannot invest based on information that you know the informant learned
    because of an insider position.
    None of these commands are difficult to comprehend. But under the majority’s reasoning, they
    are all unconstitutional.
    The majority contends that the aiding-and-abetting laws to which I point “involve
    criminal conduct by a third party that has already been determined.” Maj. Op. at 27. “By the
    time the jury evaluates whether a defendant was guilty of aiding and abetting a hate crime, the
    subjective intent of the third party is no longer at issue.” Maj. Op. at 28. Not so. There may be
    any number of reasons why the third party’s subjective intent is not yet determined. Imagine a
    hypothetical hate crime where the third-party assailant died before the defendant’s trial begins.
    Does this mean the defendant is now off the hook? Of course not. Nor would the defendant
    necessarily be off the hook if the third-party assailant fled the state or even if he were acquitted.
    See, e.g., Standefer v. United States, 
    447 U.S. 10
    , 19 (1980) (explaining that 
    18 U.S.C. § 2
    “evinces a clear intent to permit the conviction of accessories to federal criminal offenses despite
    the prior acquittal of the perpetrator of the offense”); State v. Harvell, 
    415 S.W.3d 853
    , 859
    (Tenn. Crim. App. 2010) (holding the same for Tennessee law).
    The majority commits one more error along the way. It notes that abortion is legal while
    the third-party conduct is illegal in statutes targeting the aiding and abetting of hate-crime laws.
    True enough. But whether the underlying conduct is legal or illegal has no bearing on the clarity
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 69
    or vagueness of a particular criminal statute. To use another hypothetical, one can imagine a
    statute that forbids aiding and abetting race-discriminatory employment practices. Here, firing
    an employee is perfectly legal—it becomes illegal only if it’s done because of race. But the law
    could still penalize an actor for helping a supervisor to discharge an employee, where the actor
    knows the supervisor is acting on account of the employee’s race.
    Maybe the real concern underlying the majority’s analysis is the risk of false convictions.
    After all, a police officer or prosecutor may wrongly suspect that the physician knew his patient
    sought an abortion for a listed reason. But that is true of every criminal law and in every
    criminal case. That is why the burden of proof is high (guilt beyond a reasonable doubt) and the
    jury unanimity requirement exists. To accept the majority’s argument is to declare trial by
    jury—a process enshrined not once, but twice in the Constitution—constitutionally insufficient.
    B.
    Under a commonsense reading, section 217 is not unconstitutionally vague. State law
    confirms this. See City of Chicago v. Morales, 
    527 U.S. 41
    , 61 (1999) (applying state court
    precedent to interpret a state statute); DeWine, 696 F.3d at 504 & n.14.
    Basic principles of federalism require us to undertake an especially diligent effort to
    uphold section 217. See Wash. State Grange v. Wash. State Republican Party, 
    552 U.S. 442
    , 456
    (2008). The majority goes in precisely the opposite direction today.
    Start with Tennessee principles of statutory interpretation. First, the state’s savings canon
    mandates that courts “indulge every presumption and resolve every doubt in favor of the statute’s
    constitutionality.” State v. Pickett, 
    211 S.W.3d 696
    , 700 (Tenn. 2007) (cleaned up). And
    second, under Tennessee’s rule of lenity, any indeterminacies in a criminal statute are resolved in
    the criminal defendant’s favor. State v. Marshall, 
    319 S.W.3d 558
    , 563 (Tenn. 2010). Both
    rules require us to construe any indeterminacy in favor of the doctor and thereby uphold the law.
    Even assuming we can’t find a constitutionally palatable interpretation of section 217, we
    have an obligation to certify key questions to a state’s high court before we annihilate a separate
    sovereign’s statute. Tenn. Sup. Ct. R. 23 § 1; Elkins v. Moreno, 
    435 U.S. 647
    , 660–62 (1978).
    No. 20-5969       Memphis Center for Reproductive Health, et al. v. Slatery, et al.      Page 70
    This is because the state courts, empowered by Tennessee interpretive rules to save state statutes,
    are better positioned to modify their laws to cohere them with the Constitution. See Lindenberg
    v. Jackson Nat’l Life Ins. Co., 
    912 F.3d 348
    , 379, 385–86 (6th Cir. 2018) (Larsen, J., dissenting
    in part). As the Supreme Court has warned in a related context, state courts have “special
    competence in [their] law” whereas federal courts should “have little confidence in our
    independent judgment regarding the application of that law to the present situation.” R.R.
    Comm’n of Tex. v. Pullman Co., 
    312 U.S. 496
    , 499 (1941). The majority should have heeded
    this advice before striking down Tennessee’s law.
    *       *       *
    In the end, under the majority’s approach, “every time a court needs to decide a tough
    question about just how far a statute reaches, it should declare the law unconstitutional.” Curry,
    918 F.3d at 541. That is normally not the law. And it is not even the law in abortion
    jurisprudence. Until now.
    IV.
    I concur in the judgment as to section 216 because Casey compels our decision. But
    precedent dictates no such mistake with regard to section 217.
    Justice Holmes once remarked that “a page of history is worth a volume of logic.” N.Y.
    Tr. Co. v. Eisner, 
    256 U.S. 345
    , 349 (1921). The argument that the Constitution contains a right
    to abortion has neither. As shown above, the historical evidence is clear. The Constitution
    leaves decisions like this to the states. The state legislatures can do what we can’t: listen to the
    community, create fact-specific rules with appropriate exceptions, gather more evidence, and
    update their laws if things don’t work properly. And if the public is unhappy, it can fight back at
    the ballot box. The courts should return this choice to the American people—where it belongs.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 20-5969

Filed Date: 9/10/2021

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 9/11/2021

Authorities (71)

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