United States v. Latorre-Cacho , 874 F.3d 299 ( 2017 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 15-1295
    UNITED STATES,
    Appellee,
    v.
    JOSE LATORRE-CACHO,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. José Antonio Fusté, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Thompson, Selya, and Barron,
    Circuit Judges.
    Tina Schneider was on brief for appellant.
    Francisco A. Besosa-Martínez, Assistant United States
    Attorney, with whom Rosa Emilia Rodríguez-Vélez, United States
    Attorney, and Mariana E. Bauzá-Almonte, Assistant United States
    Attorney, Chief, Appellate Division, were on brief for appellee.
    October 25, 2017
    BARRON, Circuit Judge.           In 2014, a jury convicted Jose
    Latorre-Cacho ("Latorre") of one count of conspiracy in violation
    of 18 U.S.C. § 1962, which is a provision of the Racketeer
    Influenced and Corrupt Organization ("RICO") Act.               He now appeals.
    Due to the portion of the jury instructions in which the District
    Court     incorrectly      described     what     constitutes     "racketeering
    activity" under the Act, we vacate Latorre's conviction and remand
    for further proceedings.
    I.
    In    2014,     a    multi-count,        multi-defendant    federal
    indictment in the District of Puerto Rico charged Latorre with
    RICO conspiracy in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1962(d); conspiracy to
    possess    with   intent    to   distribute      a   controlled   substance   in
    violation of 21 U.S.C. §§ 841, 846 and 860; and conspiracy to
    possess firearms in violation of 18 U.S.C. §§ 924(c)(1)(A) and
    924(o).     Latorre went to trial on all three counts.                  A jury
    convicted him only of RICO conspiracy, which was listed as Count
    I of the indictment.       The District Court then sentenced Latorre to
    a term of 120 months, to be followed by five years' supervised
    release.
    18 U.S.C. § 1962(d) makes it a crime to conspire to
    commit a RICO Act violation.           
    Id. 18 U.S.C.
    § 1962(c) provides
    that it is unlawful under the RICO Act "for any person employed by
    or associated with any enterprise engaged in, or the activities of
    - 2 -
    which   affect,     interstate         or   foreign      commerce,       to    conduct   or
    participate,      directly      or     indirectly,       in    the     conduct    of   such
    enterprise's affairs through a pattern of racketeering activity or
    collection of unlawful debt."               
    Id. A separate
         provision         of    the    statute     defines      what
    constitutes       "racketeering        activity"        to     include,       among    other
    conduct:         "any    act   or     threat      involving      murder,       kidnapping,
    gambling, arson, robbery, bribery, extortion, dealing in obscene
    matter, or dealing in a controlled substance or listed chemical."
    
    Id. § 1961.
            That definition does not, however, include the
    commission of firearms offenses, or even the involvement with
    firearms, as "racketeering activity."
    This       last   fact    about      the   RICO     Act's    definition      of
    "racketeering activity" is a key component of one of Latorre's
    challenges to his conviction on appeal.                          In particular, that
    challenge takes aim at a portion of the extensive instructions
    that the District Court gave the jury about it what it had to find
    in order to convict Latorre of RICO conspiracy.                          In that portion
    of   the   instructions,         the    District        Court,    in     the    course    of
    describing what constitutes "a pattern of racketeering activity,"
    twice incorrectly stated that "firearms" constitutes "racketeering
    activity."       Specifically, the District Court stated:
    - 3 -
    To establish a pattern of racketeering activity as
    alleged in Count I of the indictment, the government
    must prove three elements beyond a reasonable doubt.
    First, that the defendant agreed that a conspirator,
    which could include the defendant himself, did or would
    intentionally commit or cause or aid and abet the
    commission of two or more of the racketeering acts of
    the types alleged in the indictment.      Drug dealing,
    firearms, robberies, carjackings.
    ...
    Later in these instructions, I will detail for you
    elements regarding each of these types of racketeering
    activities. But you know from the summary I have given
    you up to now that the types of racketeering activity
    are the ones I just mentioned a minute ago, narcotics
    distribution, robberies, and carjackings, and of course
    firearms. (Emphases added).
    On appeal, Latorre argues that his conviction must be
    overturned because of the mistaken instructions that "firearms"
    constitute "racketeering activity."        He notes in this regard that
    the   government     put   forth   extensive    evidence    of   both   the
    enterprise's and Latorre's involvement with "firearms," and that
    Latorre testified at trial that he had no sufficient connection to
    the   enterprise's    racketeering   activity    (through    firearms   or
    otherwise) to be found guilty of conspiring to commit a RICO Act
    violation.
    Latorre also presses three other challenges on appeal.
    He argues that certain special interrogatories concerning drug
    quantity set forth on the verdict form were unduly suggestive.          He
    contends that it was error for the District Court, after the jury
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    told the District Court that it had reached a verdict and was
    called back into the courtroom, to have directed the jury to
    "complete"     the    verdict   form    after     informing    the   jury   that
    "something is missing." Finally, he argues that the District Court
    erred in not including special interrogatories on the verdict form
    that would have required the jury to specify the "racketeering
    activity" that the jury found.
    Because we conclude that Latorre's challenge to the jury
    instructions has merit, we do not reach his other challenges.                We
    thus both begin and end our analysis with the jury instructions
    issue.
    II.
    In   a   federal   criminal      trial,   the   Fifth   Amendment's
    guarantee of due process of law requires the government to prove
    beyond a reasonable doubt every element of the offense for which
    the defendant is charged.         Thus, jury instructions may violate a
    defendant's constitutional right to due process if they relieve
    the government of its obligation to meet that requirement.                  See
    Middleton v. McNeil, 
    541 U.S. 433
    , 437 (2004).
    At the same time, "not every ambiguity, inconsistency,
    or deficiency in a jury instruction rises to the level of a due
    process violation.       The question is whether the ailing instruction
    so infected the entire trial that the resulting conviction violates
    due process."     
    Id. (internal quotation
    and alteration omitted).            A
    - 5 -
    jury instruction thus violates the Constitution for failing to
    properly instruct the jury regarding the elements of an offense
    only when "there is a reasonable likelihood that the jury has
    applied the challenged instruction in a way that violates the
    Constitution."    
    Id. (internal quotation
    omitted).
    In    this   case,   Latorre   contends   that     the   jury
    instructions permitted the jury to return a verdict on the RICO
    conspiracy count on a legally invalid theory of what constitutes
    "racketeering activity" by defining "racketeering activity" to
    include "firearms."     See Skilling v. United States, 
    561 U.S. 358
    ,
    414 (2010) (explaining that "constitutional error occurs when a
    jury is instructed on alternative theories of guilt and returns a
    general verdict that may rest on a legally invalid theory") (citing
    Yates v. United States, 
    354 U.S. 298
    (1957)).             The government
    agrees that "racketeering activity" does not include "firearms."
    Thus, our task is to determine whether, after taking account of
    the   District   Court's   erroneous   description   of    "racketeering
    activity," the instructions in their "entirety -- and in the
    context of the evidence -- presented the relevant issues to the
    jury fairly and adequately."      Sony BMG Entm't v. Tenenbaum, 
    660 F.3d 487
    , 503 (1st Cir. 2011).
    Latorre concedes, however, that he did not object at
    trial to the portion of the jury instructions that he now contends
    rendered the instructions invalid.         Thus, in undertaking our
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    inquiry into the import of the misstatements of law that the
    instructions contained regarding what constitutes "racketeering
    activity," we review only for plain error.            United States v.
    Prieto, 
    812 F.3d 6
    , 17 (1st Cir. 2016).          Under this plain error
    standard, Latorre "faces the 'heavy burden of showing (1) that an
    error occurred; (2) that the error was clear or obvious; (3) that
    the error affected his substantial rights; and (4) that the error
    also   seriously   impaired   the    fairness,   integrity,   or   public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.'"       
    Id. (quoting United
    States
    v. Riccio, 
    529 F.3d 40
    , 46 (1st Cir. 2008)).
    In general, we have explained that "[t]his multi-factor
    analysis makes the road to success under the plain error standard
    rather steep; hence, reversal constitutes a remedy that is granted
    sparingly."   United States v. Delgado-Marrero, 
    744 F.3d 167
    , 184
    (1st Cir. 2014) (quoting United States v. Gelin, 
    712 F.3d 612
    , 620
    (1st Cir. 2013).     And, consistent with that caution, we have
    emphasized that, even when a district court makes a clear or
    obvious error in instructing the jury, the third prong of the plain
    error standard still requires the defendant to show that the
    "outcome of the case would likely have changed" had the erroneous
    instruction not been given, United States v. Colon, 
    744 F.3d 752
    ,
    758 (1st Cir. 2014), or, put otherwise, that it is reasonably
    probable that the clear and obvious error affected the result of
    the proceedings, see United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 542 U.S.
    - 7 -
    74, 81-82 (2004) (citing United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    ,
    682 (1985)).      Nevertheless, we also have made clear that, to
    satisfy this third prong of the plain error standard, the defendant
    need not "prove by a preponderance of the evidence that but for
    [the] error things would have been different."          United States v.
    Rodríguez, 
    735 F.3d 1
    , 11-12 (1st Cir. 2013) (quoting United States
    v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 84 n.9 (2004) (insertion in the
    original)).
    Finally, the fourth prong of the plain error standard
    imposes a distinct potential obstacle to a defendant successfully
    making an unpreserved challenge to a jury instruction's erroneous
    description of an element of an offense.         This prong requires a
    defendant to show that the instructional error threatened the
    fairness,     integrity,   or   public    reputation   of   the   judicial
    proceedings.    United States v. Delgado-Marrero, 
    744 F.3d 167
    , 184
    (1st Cir. 2014).     And, we have made clear, judicial proceedings
    are not so affected if the evidence of the defendant's guilt at
    trial is "overwhelming" and "essentially uncontroverted."          United
    States v. Cotton, 
    535 U.S. 625
    , 633 (2002) (citing Johnson v.
    United States, 
    520 U.S. 461
    , 470 (1997)).
    III.
    Against this backdrop, the government seems to concede
    that, with respect to the first two prongs of the plain error
    standard, the District Court committed a clear and obvious error
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    when it instructed the jury that "racketeering activity" includes
    "firearms."   The government argues, however, that Latorre cannot
    show the kind of effect on his substantial rights that he must
    show in order to satisfy the third prong of the plain error
    standard.     Rather,     the    government      contends,   the    problematic
    references to "firearms" are best understood to be "isolated" and
    "fleeting   mistakes,"     and    thus    ones    that   cannot     suffice    to
    demonstrate that there is a reasonable probability that, absent
    these mistakes, the outcome at trial would have been different.1
    The   government   also   contends,      albeit    cursorily,      that   Latorre
    1In effect, then, the government treats what it seems to
    concede to be the "clear or obvious" misstatement of the law
    concerning "firearms" as a basis for concluding that the first and
    second prongs of the plain error test have been met, such that we
    must then proceed to the third prong of the inquiry. At that step
    of the inquiry, as the government frames it, we then must evaluate
    whether that clear or obvious misstatement resulted in an
    instruction that, considered in context, was sufficiently likely
    to mislead the jury so as to affect, all things considered, the
    substantial rights of the defendant. This approach accords with
    the one that we have followed before in evaluating jury
    instructions that contain a misstatement of the law. See United
    States v. Pennue, 
    770 F.3d 985
    , 990 (1st Cir. 2014). Therefore,
    we do not analyze here, under the second prong of the plain error
    test, whether the instructions as a whole were clearly or obviously
    misleading. Cf. United States v. Romero, 
    32 F.3d 641
    , 651–52 (1st
    Cir. 1994). We instead focus only on the question the government
    presses -- whether the instructions as a whole, erroneous though
    a portion of them clearly was, affected the substantial rights of
    the defendant. We do note, however, that, on the facts of this
    case, we would find plain error under either approach, at least
    given the government's failure to make any record-based argument
    for concluding otherwise.
    - 9 -
    cannot meet his burden under the fourth prong of the plain error
    test.
    In explaining why we do not agree with the government,
    we first describe why we conclude that the misstatements of law
    that    the    oral   instructions    contained     regarding    "firearms"
    constituting "racketeering activity" are quite serious.             We then
    explain why we are not persuaded by the government's contention
    that the misstatements were adequately mitigated by other portions
    of the oral instructions that also referenced the types of conduct
    that constitute "racketeering activity."          Next, we explain why our
    precedent does not support the government's contention that the
    written instructions ensured that the oral instructions, despite
    the misstatements that they contained, probably had no effect on
    the outcome of the trial.         And, finally, we explain our reasons
    for concluding that, when considered in light of the evidence
    adduced at trial, the errors in the oral instructions were so
    likely to mislead the jury as to what conduct could constitute "a
    pattern of racketeering activity," 18 U.S.C. § 1961, that it is
    reasonably probable that those misstatements impacted the outcome
    at trial and thus that Latorre has demonstrated plain error.
    A.
    Although   the   government   characterizes   the     District
    Court's       misstatements     regarding     "firearms"        constituting
    "racketeering activity" as "isolated" and "fleeting," it is hard
    - 10 -
    to credit that description just based on a review of the part of
    the instructions that contains the misstatements.                 The District
    Court   in   this   part    of   the    instructions    expressly    described
    "firearms" as "racketeering activity" not once, but twice.                 And
    the District Court did so in seemingly quite a considered fashion.
    The District Court emphasized that it would "detail for
    [the jury] elements regarding each of these types of racketeering
    activities"    --   which   activities      the   District   Court   expressly
    described     as    including      "firearms"      --    "later      in   these
    instructions."      What is more, the District Court went on to inform
    the jury that, important as these follow-on "details" about "these
    types of racketeering activities" would be, "you know from the
    summary I have given you up to now that the types of racketeering
    activity are the ones I just mentioned a minute ago."                     And,
    finally, the District Court pointed out that such racketeering
    activity "of course" included "firearms."           Thus, the legal mistake
    about the nature of the "pattern of racketeering activity" element
    was repeated, rather than isolated, and emphatic, rather than
    fleeting.
    The government does contend the District Court in making
    these misstatements was merely providing a general description of
    "racketeering activity."         By contrast, the government contends,
    when the District Court specifically described the racketeering
    activities allegedly engaged in by the enterprise at issue in this
    - 11 -
    particular     case,      the   District      Court    at   that    point    did   not
    erroneously     state      that     "firearms"        constituted    "racketeering
    activity."     Instead, the District Court at that point listed only
    conduct that did qualify as "racketeering activity."                        Thus, the
    government suggests, the jury was likely to focus on that proper
    part of the instructions rather than the erroneous one, as only
    the proper part was focused on the particular charge of RICO
    conspiracy that had been brought against Latorre.
    But,    in     fact,       the   problematic        portion     of    the
    instructions    did       not   offer    merely   a     generalized    account      of
    "racketeering activity," such that we may presume that a jury would
    have been inclined to discount that description in the face of
    another part of the instructions that did not repeat the error and
    that was more tailored to the charges in this particular case.
    The problematic portion of the instructions referenced only types
    of   conduct    --      drug      trafficking,        robbery,     carjacking      and
    "firearms" -- that the indictment tied to the particular enterprise
    with which Latorre was charged with conspiring. Thus, the District
    Court in this part of the instructions appears to have been
    offering a description of "racketeering activity" that was itself
    tailored to Latorre's case.             And that fact makes it probable that
    the jury followed that part of the instructions, as the government
    appears to accept that the jury would not have been inclined to
    ignore an instruction from the District Court about the nature of
    - 12 -
    "racketeering     activity"    that    was       specifically    describing    the
    nature of the offense that Latorre was charged with committing.
    B.
    Given how clearly the District Court instructed the jury
    that it could convict Latorre on an invalid legal theory of what
    constituted       "racketeering        activity,"       Latorre's        challenge
    necessarily turns on whether, as the government contends, the rest
    of the instructions somehow sufficed to counteract that erroneous
    instruction.      But, contrary to the government's contention, we
    conclude that the instructions as a whole did not suffice to
    disabuse the jury of the misimpression about what it needed to
    find   that     had   been   created    by    the    erroneous    part    of   the
    instructions.         For that reason, we conclude that there was a
    reasonable probability that the error -- clear and obvious as it
    was -- misled the jury about what it needed to find in order to
    convict Latorre.
    In arguing otherwise, the government points first to a
    portion of the oral instructions in which the District Court began
    by stating:     "I will define for you what is racketeering activity.
    Racketeering activity is defined to include a variety, could be
    many, a variety of state crimes subject to imprisonment for more
    than one year, as well as a variety of Federal crimes subject to
    Federal indictment."         The District Court then went on to state
    that   "[y]ou     are   instructed     as    a    matter   of    law   that    drug
    - 13 -
    trafficking,     robbery,     carjacking      qualify   as      racketeering
    activities."
    This part of the instructions would appear to provide
    the strongest support for the government's contention that the
    misstatements,    in    context,   were     less   concerning    than   they
    otherwise would seem to have been.          After all, the District Court
    purported to define "racketeering activity" in this portion of the
    instructions and, in doing so, mentioned by name only types of
    conduct that are "racketeering activity."           But, this portion of
    the instructions did not come after -- and thereby arguably make
    up for -- the misstatements by the District Court in which it had
    named "firearms" as a type of "racketeering activity."               Rather,
    this listing of only types of conduct that do in fact qualify as
    "racketeering activity" preceded the incorrect description of
    "firearms" constituting such activity that came later.            And, given
    how emphatic and seemingly considered the subsequent mistaken
    description was, it is reasonably probable that the jury would not
    have ignored that mistaken description simply because it had
    earlier   received     the   preceding    description   of   "racketeering
    activity" that the government contends we must assume the jury
    privileged.
    Further supporting this conclusion is the fact that the
    District Court did not at any point in the supposedly curative
    precedent passage actually state that the list of qualifying
    - 14 -
    racketeering activities that was being set forth was an exhaustive,
    as opposed to merely an illustrative, one.            In fact, the sentence
    that immediately precedes the list suggests just the opposite, by
    stating that "[r]acketeering activity is defined to include a
    variety, could be many, a variety of state crimes subject to
    imprisonment for more than one year, as well as a variety of
    Federal crimes subject to Federal indictment." (Emphasis added).
    It is thus hard to see how it is reasonably probable that, just
    because the jury first heard a general description of "racketeering
    activity" that stressed how broad that category of activity is,
    the jury would have ignored as wrong the District Court's later
    and seemingly insistent instruction that a particular type of
    conduct -- "firearms" -- falls within that broad category.
    The government next points to a supposedly compensating
    statement in the oral instructions that, unlike the statement that
    we   have   just   addressed,   does   follow   the    misstatements   about
    "firearms."    But, while it may often make sense to presume that a
    jury gave more weight to a follow-on proper statement of the law
    than to a prior, erroneous one, see United States v. Pennue, 
    770 F.3d 985
    , 990 (1st Cir. 2014), the context here does not permit us
    to do so.
    In the follow-on statement that the government points to
    here, the District Court explained for the jury that it had to be
    unanimous as to the types of predicate "racketeering activity"
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    that it found in order to render a guilty verdict on the RICO
    conspiracy count.         In elaborating on that particular point of law
    regarding the requirement of unanimity as it applies to the
    "pattern of racketeering activity" element, the District Court
    made no mention of firearms.         Instead, the District Court referred
    only to types of conduct that do in fact qualify as "racketeering
    activity."       Specifically,       the    District   Court    explained    the
    unanimity requirement by stating that:
    [Y]our verdict must be unanimous as to which types of
    predicate racketeering activity the defendants agreed
    would be committed. For example, at least two acts of
    drug trafficking, at least two acts of robbery,
    carjacking or any combination thereof. And you already
    know that the types of racketeering activity charged are
    drug trafficking, robbery and carjacking.
    There   is    a   problem,     however,   with    portraying   this
    statement as if it conflicted with the District Court's earlier
    statements that described "firearms" as "racketeering activity."
    In the passage just quoted above, the District Court was not
    purporting     to    define    the   type    of   conduct     that   constitutes
    "racketeering activity," as the District Court had been purporting
    to do in offering the prior, erroneous description that named
    "firearms" as a type of "racketeering activity."                     Rather, the
    District Court was simply instructing the jury that it must
    unanimously find that the enterprise engaged in a particular
    predicate "racketeering activity" in order to convict Latorre for
    RICO conspiracy and thus that the jury could not convict him on
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    the basis of having unanimously found only that the enterprise had
    engaged in some type of "racketeering activity," with some jurors
    having different ideas than others of what that activity was.
    For that reason, when this portion of the instructions
    is considered in conjunction with the District Court's prior
    statements that "firearms" constitute "racketeering activity,"
    this   portion   of   the    instructions   could   quite    comfortably   be
    understood to have been merely providing some of the "details"
    about the elements of "racketeering activity" that the earlier
    portion of the instructions had expressly informed the jury it
    would soon receive.         And, given that the earlier portion of the
    instructions had been quite insistent in instructing the jury that
    "racketeering activity" encompassed "firearms," the nature of the
    "correct" subsequent instruction is such that it is reasonably
    probable that the jury followed the emphatic but mistaken portion
    of the instructions.         For, we do not see on what basis we could
    simply assume that the jury would have ignored what it had been
    told in error -- that "firearms" was "of course" "racketeering
    activity" -- when it had not been instructed (even impliedly) to
    do so.
    We note as well that, in setting forth the list of
    activities that qualify as "racketeering activity" in the part of
    the    instructions   that    described   the   need   for   unanimity,    the
    District Court introduced the list with the words "[f]or example."
    - 17 -
    For this reason, too, it is reasonably probable that the jury would
    not have understood the list that then followed to have been an
    implicit instruction to consider no other conduct as "racketeering
    activity," including even conduct such as "firearms" that the
    District Court had expressly said the jury "of course" could
    consider as "racketeering activity."
    Indeed, if the District Court intended for this portion
    of the instructions to convey any such message, then it is not
    clear   why    the    District     Court     used    the       words    "for   example."
    Moreover, whatever the District Court's intent may have been in
    instructing the jury as it did, the fact remains that it did use
    the introductory words "for example."                    Thus, this feature of the
    supposedly curative "correct" instruction further adds to the
    likelihood that the jury did just what we repeatedly have said
    that    we    must    assume    that    juries      do    --    namely,      follow    the
    instructions in a way that, if possible, makes them cohere rather
    than conflict. See Francis v. Franklin, 
    471 U.S. 307
    , 321 n.7
    (1985) (finding that a reasonable juror seeks "to make sense of"
    arguably conflicting instructions); see also United States v.
    Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 740 (1993) (“[We] presum[e] that jurors,
    conscious     of     the   gravity     of   their    task,       attend      closely   the
    particular language of the trial court's instructions in a criminal
    case    and    strive      to   understand,      make      sense       of,   and   follow
    the instructions given them") (citation omitted).
    - 18 -
    Of course, the last sentence in the passage from the
    instructions quoted above does state that "you already know that
    the types of racketeering activity charged are drug trafficking,
    robbery and carjacking."        And this last sentence thus made no
    mention of "firearms."       But, each of the activities mentioned in
    that sentence is also mentioned in the list of activities that is
    both set forth in the sentence that precedes it and that is
    introduced there by the words "for example."           A jury thus could
    quite reasonably have understood this portion of the instructions
    merely to have been illustrating a point about unanimity by
    identifying possible groupings of some -- rather than all -- of
    the "racketeering activity" relevant to Latorre's case.            In this
    respect, this portion of the instructions is easily read to have
    been doing nothing more than conveying some of the "details" about
    the "pattern of racketeering activity" element that the District
    Court had earlier expressly said that it would provide when it
    instructed    the    jury   without   equivocation    that   "racketeering
    activity" includes "firearms."
    Finally, the government points to one other portion of
    the oral instructions that it contends conflicts with -- and
    thereby likely renders unproblematic -- the misstatements about
    "firearms" that came before.           The government notes that the
    instructions expressly refer at one point to the indictment's
    description     of   "racketeering    activity,"     and   the   government
    - 19 -
    contends that the indictment made clear to the jury that "firearms"
    do not qualify as such an activity.          Thus, the government argues,
    the portion of the instructions that directed the jury's attention
    to the indictment (at least probably) served to disabuse the jury
    of whatever mistaken understanding of the law that the references
    to "firearms" might have engendered.
    Notably, however, this supposedly curative reference in
    the oral instructions to the indictment does not actually purport
    to instruct the jury to rely solely on the indictment's description
    of "racketeering activity" to determine what conduct qualifies as
    such activity.      Rather, the portion of the instructions that
    contains this reference instructs the jury about how to understand
    the import of the requirement that racketeering activities must be
    related to one another.            So, once again, it seems reasonably
    probable -- though, of course, not certain -- that the jury would
    have thought the District Court was giving "details" about the
    "pattern of racketeering activity" element, which the District
    Court had earlier described to the jury as one that could be
    satisfied in part through evidence of the enterprise having engaged
    in activity involving "firearms."
    Moreover, in referencing the indictment, the District
    Court did not direct the jury's attention to any particular portion
    of   the   indictment   as   the   one   that   identifies   "the   types   of
    racketeering activities described" therein. The absence of any
    - 20 -
    such directive matters because, while there are a number of
    separately      titled      sub-sections           in     Count      I      of      the
    indictment      --      which     is     the      one     that     concerns        RICO
    conspiracy -- none of those sub-sections is actually entitled
    "Racketeering Activity."          Nor do the headings or any other words
    in the indictment make it obvious which subsection, if any, defines
    the universe of conduct that is alleged to constitute "racketeering
    activity."
    To be sure, the subsection in the indictment entitled
    "Racketeering      Conspiracy"     does     use    the    phrase     "racketeering
    activity" and then goes on to list only qualifying conduct.                         By
    contrast,    the     subsection    entitled      "Means    and    Methods     of   the
    Conspiracy,"       in   listing        various    activities       in    which      the
    "enterprise" is alleged to have engaged, does not use that phrase.
    But, significantly, the activities that are listed in
    that   latter      subsection     also     include,      alongside       "firearms,"
    activities that are "racketeering activity."                There is, therefore,
    a reasonable probability the jury would have thought that the
    listed activities in this subsection were all qualifying ones.
    After all, for that not to be the case, the jury would have had to
    have thought that the District Court had led the jury astray in
    earlier telling it orally in no uncertain terms that "firearms"
    was "of course" also "racketeering activity."
    - 21 -
    Further adding to the reasonable probability that the
    jury read the indictment to cohere rather than to conflict with
    the    District     Court's    earlier,     erroneous     instruction       is   the
    following fact about the indictment.                  The subsection entitled
    "Roles of the Defendants," in which Latorre is specifically named,
    states that he "participated in various illegal activities of the
    enterprise, including robbery." (Emphasis added).                     Considered in
    conjunction with the ambiguities in the other subsections of the
    indictment, that sentence fairly invites the jury to conclude that
    the District Court meant what it said when it earlier explained:
    "you know from the summary I have given you up to now that the
    types of racketeering activity are the ones I just mentioned a
    minute ago, narcotics distribution, robberies, and carjackings,
    and of course firearms." (Emphasis added).
    In   all   events,      the    question    is     whether    the    oral
    instructions, taken as a whole, created a reasonable probability
    that   the   jury    would    have   been    misled    about    the    conduct   the
    government needed to prove to satisfy the "pattern of racketeering
    activity" element.      And here, we think that the potential for the
    jury to have been so misled is substantial, notwithstanding that
    there were portions of the instructions that described the relevant
    law without misstating it.
    To be sure, human speech being what it is, slip ups in
    oral instructions are bound to occur, and jurors may be understood
    - 22 -
    to have enough common sense to recognize them as such.               For that
    reason, the due process guarantee is not necessarily violated just
    because a district court misstates the law at some points in the
    course of instructing a jury.            See 
    Middleton, 541 U.S. at 438
    (finding no due process violation because, only "a rare combination
    of extremely refined lawyerly parsing of an instruction, and
    extremely gullible acceptance of a result that makes no conceivable
    sense" would have led a jury to have been misled by the mistaken
    description of an element of an offense once the instructions were
    considered as a whole).
    But, by considering the context of the instructions as
    a whole, we have previously found the plain error standard to have
    been met notwithstanding that an arguably curative instruction was
    given following a clearly and obviously erroneous one.                 United
    States v. Delgado-Marrero, 
    744 F.3d 167
    , 190 (1st Cir. 2014)
    (finding that, in context, plain error standard was met even though
    government     argued   that   special   jury   verdict    and   accompanying
    instructions    cured   the    instructional    defect    arising    from   the
    omission of the reasonable doubt requirement for an element of the
    offense). In this case, the context requires that same conclusion.
    For,   given    the   peculiarly   emphatic     nature    of   the   erroneous
    instruction and the fact that the rest of the oral instructions
    could quite comfortably be read to cohere with the District Court's
    misstatement of the law, there is very good reason to be concerned
    - 23 -
    that the jury was misled by what it was told by the District Court.
    See Smith v. Jenkins, 
    732 F.3d 51
    , 69 (1st Cir. 2013) (holding
    that we presume that a jury follows the court's instructions, and
    acts according to its charge).
    C.
    Of    course,      the    jury     did     also   receive   written
    instructions,    and   they    contained      no    misstatements   about   what
    constitutes "racketeering activity."           The government thus contends
    that the written instructions, which also must be considered in
    assessing the significance of the oral misstatements, suffice to
    diminish   the   concern      that    the     oral    misstatements    affected
    Latorre's substantial rights.
    The government points in particular to 
    Pennue, 770 F.3d at 990
    , as support for that conclusion.                 But Pennue is a very
    different case.        There, the district court, in conveying the
    instructions orally, appeared to have simply misread from the
    written instructions at one point by omitting a key word -- namely
    "not" -- such that the opposite of what was surely intended was
    said.   See 
    id. at 988-89.
    In finding no plain error from what we described as that
    "slip of the tongue," we did reference the written instructions,
    which both were correct and stated that the law in a way that could
    not be reconciled with the misstatement.              
    Id. at 990-91.
      But, we
    did so only after examining the entirety of the instructions that
    - 24 -
    the jury received, including the fact that the one incorrect oral
    instruction    was    "followed   immediately     by     a   correct    [oral]
    instruction[.]"      
    Id. at 990.
        In fact, in Pennue we expressly
    stated that "we would hesitate to rely on written instructions
    alone as a basis for concluding that the jury was not likely to be
    misled by an incorrect oral instruction."          
    Id. We thus
    do not find the government's reliance on Pennue
    persuasive.    As we have explained, the errors in this case were
    too seemingly considered to be dismissed as ones that a reasonable
    jury would have recognized to be -- like the omission of the single
    word in Pennue -- the product of a mere slip of the tongue.                 And
    that is especially so given that the rest of the oral instructions
    did not suffice to set the record straight by providing the jury
    accurate statements of the law that, in context, were likely to
    have been understood to have conflicted with the wrong ones.
    D.
    We   also    must   consider      the   likely     effect    of   the
    instructional error in light of the evidence that was adduced at
    trial.   
    Stefanik, 674 F.3d at 76
    .          But, a review of the record
    does not show that the evidence adduced at trial was of a kind
    that would render the District Court's notably insistent but still
    erroneous description of racketeering activity to be immaterial to
    the outcome at trial. As Latorre points out, there was substantial
    evidence presented to the jury regarding firearms, both as to the
    - 25 -
    enterprise's involvement with them and as to Latorre's connections
    to firearms.   In fact, the prosecutor in the government's closing
    argument stated, that Latorre "was an armed seller and enforcer"
    and "sold a firearm" and that members of the enterprise would "buy
    guns, bullets and drugs."
    Thus,   the   instruction      that   "firearms"   constituted
    "racketeering activity" -- if followed -- was hardly beside the
    point in Latorre's case.    Nor does the government make any record-
    based argument for overlooking the error in the oral instructions;
    the government relies instead solely on the contention that the
    face of the instructions reveals that, as a whole, they were not
    likely to mislead.   See United States v. Castro–Taveras, 
    841 F.3d 34
    , 54 (1st Cir. 2016) (finding that government did not argue a
    particular claim and thus waived that argument).2
    2 Advancing an argument that the government does not make in
    connection with the jury instructions, the dissent notes that
    Latorre was acquitted of the count charging him with conspiracy to
    possess firearms in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 924(c)(1)(A), as if
    that acquittal demonstrates that the erroneous instruction
    regarding "firearms" was beside the point. But, with respect to
    that count, the indictment described the only crime that had been
    furthered as "drug trafficking," and the jury instructions did so
    as well. Thus, the acquittal on this count shows only that the
    jury acquitted Latorre of conspiracy to possess firearms in
    furtherance of drug trafficking. The acquittal does not show that
    the jury found that Latorre was not involved with "firearms."
    Consistent with this conclusion, we note that the jury also
    acquitted Latorre of conspiring to possess narcotics with the
    intent to distribute, which further suggests that the acquittal on
    the firearms conspiracy charge may simply have resulted from the
    jury's doubts about Latorre's involvement with drugs rather than
    from doubts about his involvement with firearms.        Thus, the
    - 26 -
    We do recognize that, even if a jury instruction misleads
    the jury as to what it must find with respect to an element of the
    offense,   that    instruction   may    not    affect   the     defendant's
    substantial rights if there is "overwhelming evidence that the
    jury still would have convicted absent the error."            United States
    v. Colón Osorio, 
    360 F.3d 48
    , 52 (1st Cir. 2004).        But, our review
    of the record reveals no basis for so concluding, given that the
    government emphasized at trial the ties between Latorre and the
    enterprise with respect to firearms in particular, that Latorre
    challenged those ties in his own testimony to the jury, and that
    he   requested    (unsuccessfully)   special   interrogatories      on   the
    verdict form as the specific predicate acts found.        See Salinas v.
    United States, 
    552 U.S. 52
    , 65-66 (1997) (holding that "[i]n some
    cases the connection the defendant had to the alleged enterprise
    or to the conspiracy to further it may be tenuous enough so that
    his own commission of two predicate acts may become an important
    part of the Government's case.")       Nor does the government make any
    argument to the contrary. See 
    Castro–Taveras, 841 F.3d at 54
    .
    Finally, given our reasons for finding the government's
    arguments insufficient to show that Latorre's substantial rights
    acquittal to which the dissent points simply does not show that it
    is reasonably probable that, even if the jury was of the mistaken
    view that "firearms" is a "racketeering activity," the outcome at
    trial was not thereby affected. And that fact may explain why the
    government itself, which surely knows the record well, does not
    press this point.
    - 27 -
    were not affected, we do not see how the fourth prong of the plain
    error standard precludes Latorre from demonstrating plain error
    here.   Moreover, while the government does assert that Latorre
    cannot satisfy that prong, it does so in only one sentence and
    without offering any explanation as to why. See United States v.
    Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990) (referring to "the settled
    appellate rule that issues adverted to in a perfunctory manner,
    unaccompanied     by   some    effort   at   developed     argumentation,   are
    deemed waived").
    E.
    In sum, the oral instructions in this case were most
    unusual.   They set forth an invalid legal theory regarding what
    the government must prove as to a key element of the offense.               They
    did so, moreover, in clear and considered terms by telling the
    jury, in effect, that it would be unreasonable to understand that
    element any other way.
    Even     more      unusually,     no    statement    in   the    oral
    instructions      adequately     countered        that   confidently-expressed
    misstatement of the law.          Rather, the other statements to which
    the government points in the oral instructions were each framed in
    ways that are comfortably read to cohere with -- rather than to
    contravene -- the District Court's mistaken oral instruction.
    And, finally, the evidence adduced at trial reinforces
    our conclusion that the jury was likely misled.              That evidence put
    - 28 -
    in play the invalid description of the element of the offense that
    the District Court set forth orally.            That evidence also was not
    so strong or uncontroverted as to render improbable the chance
    that       juror   confusion   about    whether    "firearms"      constitutes
    "racketeering activity" affected the verdict.
    Significantly,      the   government    does    not     actually
    challenge the view that the plain error standard is met by a case
    with attributes such as those that we have just described this
    case as having.      Rather, the government argues only that this case
    does not have those attributes.           And the government bases that
    assertion solely on its contention that the erroneous, orally-
    conveyed      statements   were    adequately     countered   by    statements
    elsewhere in the oral instructions that did not contain the error,
    as well as by the written instructions.           But, for the reasons that
    we have given, the notion that the other statements in the oral
    instructions conflicted with the incorrect ones is belied by the
    way that those "correct" parts of the instructions were phrased.
    And we have never held that written instructions alone, simply by
    not repeating an error, suffice to clear up confusion that a
    misstatement in oral instructions otherwise would cause.                Thus,
    the premise for the government's only argument against finding
    plain error is not supportable.3
    3
    In discounting the probability of confusion in this case,
    the dissent consistently downplays the seriousness of the District
    - 29 -
    We should add that the evidence at trial -- as well as
    the prosecutor's closing argument -- made the enterprise's alleged
    involvement in firearms a central part of the case.    Thus, these
    features of the case heighten our concern that the jury was misled.
    And, finally, there is one more feature of this case that causes
    concern -- the plausibility of a jury thinking that, just as the
    District Court had said, "firearms" are "of course" racketeering
    activity.    For, we cannot see why we should presume that lay
    persons would think it so implausible that Congress, in trying to
    stamp out organized crime, intended to target organized criminal
    enterprises that were involved with firearms, that the District
    Court must have erred in instructing the jury that "firearms" were
    Court's errors as mere "ad-libs." But the District Court did not
    tell the jurors to forget what they had been instructed from the
    bench and to rely solely on the instructions that had been given
    to them in writing. Rather, the District Court told the jury to
    use the written instructions as a reference in the event that they
    found it hard to "recollect" what they had been told orally. Thus,
    the fact that the District Court "ad-libbed" is itself the problem.
    Finally, the dissent repeatedly states that because "correct"
    instructions were given orally, only speculation suggests that the
    jury followed the incorrect ones. But we are obliged to read the
    instructions as a whole, and, in this case, each "correct"
    instruction, when so read, quite comfortably comports with rather
    than conflicts with the misstatements.      Thus, only speculation
    supports the notion that the jurors did not presume that the
    District Court intended for its oral instructions to cohere, for
    ordinarily we assume that jurors have the common sense to do just
    that. 
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 740
    . And thus only speculation supports
    the view that it is not reasonably probable that the jurors took
    the District Court seriously when it told them that "firearms" "of
    course" constituted "racketeering activity."     See 
    Franklin, 471 U.S. at 321
    .
    - 30 -
    "racketeering activity."   Thus, however rare hen's teeth may be,
    this is the rare (though not unprecedented, see 
    Delgado-Marrero, 744 F.3d at 190
    ) case of an unpreserved challenge to a clear and
    obvious instructional error that meets the plain error standard.
    IV.
    For these reasons, we vacate Latorre's conviction.
    -Dissenting Opinion Follows-
    - 31 -
    SELYA,    Circuit     Judge,    dissenting.        Picture     this:   a
    district judge, charging the jury in a complex criminal case, reads
    his prepared (written) instructions to the jury.                While doing so,
    he twice ad-libs remarks that are legally incorrect and run counter
    to the correct instructions both read to the jurors and provided
    to them in writing.       The defendant's counsel, as well as counsel
    for   a    separately     represented           codefendant,   are       apparently
    unconcerned; neither lawyer interposes an objection.                      The jury
    deliberates and returns a split verdict, convicting the defendant
    on a charge of RICO conspiracy, but acquitting him on the other
    charges.
    On appeal, the defendant is represented by new counsel,
    who, after scouring the record, argues that the judge's ad-libbed
    remarks    demand     vacation     of     the    conviction.       The    majority
    acknowledges (as it must) that this claim was not preserved below
    and can be reviewed only for plain error.                 It nonetheless holds
    that — due to two errant phrases ad-libbed by the district judge
    — the conviction should be set aside.
    This     holding     blurs     the    vital   distinction       between
    appellate review of preserved claims of error and appellate review
    of unpreserved claims of error.                  To make matters worse, the
    majority    overlooks     and/or        undervalues    telltales     that    argue
    powerfully against the existence of a reasonable probability that
    the district judge's ad-libbed remarks were outcome-determinative.
    - 32 -
    In   my    view,      the    appropriate    standard   of   review,   applied    as
    precedent dictates, requires us to reject this unpreserved claim
    of error.       Because the majority reaches a contrary result only by
    diluting the plain error standard, I respectfully dissent.
    The plain error standard itself is not controversial: it
    requires the party advancing an unpreserved claim to establish
    "(1) that an error occurred (2) which was clear or obvious and
    which not only (3) affected the defendant's substantial rights,
    but also (4) seriously impaired the fairness, integrity, or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings."               United States v. Duarte, 
    246 F.3d 56
    , 60 (1st Cir. 2001).                   Equally uncontroversial is the
    proposition that the proponent of an unpreserved claim (here, the
    defendant) must carry the devoir of persuasion as to each of these
    four elements.         See United States v. Bramley, 
    847 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st
    Cir. 2017); United States v. Vega Molina, 
    407 F.3d 511
    , 521 (1st
    Cir. 2005).
    In this case, the district judge, when instructing the
    jury      in   open    court,     twice    ad-libbed   remarks   that   included
    "firearms" in his description of "racketeering activities" that
    might     comprise      a     "pattern    of   racketeering   activity."        The
    government concedes that these ad-libbed remarks were manifestly
    incorrect and, thus, satisfy the first two elements of the plain
    error standard.             This appeal turns, then, on the third element:
    whether the defendant has carried his burden of demonstrating that
    - 33 -
    the judge's bevue "affected the defendant's substantial rights."
    
    Duarte, 246 F.3d at 60
    .
    To accomplish this task, the defendant must show, at a
    minimum, a reasonable probability that, but for the alleged error,
    the outcome of the trial would have been different.            See 
    Bramley, 847 F.3d at 7
    .       This is a daunting standard, requiring the
    defendant to show "some level of certainty and particularity[,]"
    and we consistently have declined invitations to "indulge in
    . . . speculation" on plain error review.       
    Id. at 7-8
    (citing Jones
    v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 373
    , 394-95 (1999)).           It is not enough
    that there might be a possibility — even a strong possibility —
    that the jury was confused by a contested instruction; rather, for
    a reviewing court to find plain error, there must be a reasonable
    probability that, but for the instruction, the jury would not have
    convicted the defendant.
    In the case at hand, one important integer in the
    "reasonable probability" calculus is that the judge, on several
    other occasions during the delivery of his charge, correctly
    described   the   activities    that   might   comprise    a   "pattern   of
    racketeering activity."        Far from "notably insist[ing]" on the
    erroneous instruction, ante at 25, the judge excluded the term
    "firearms" from the relevant taxonomy every other time that he
    explained "racketeering activity" — and he did so consistently in
    the written instructions given to the jury.          Where, as here, a
    - 34 -
    judge gives conflicting versions of an element of an offense — one
    correct, one not — it is virtually impossible to say, to a
    reasonable degree of probability, that the jury went down one road
    rather than the other.         See, e.g., United States v. Pennue, 
    770 F.3d 985
    , 989-91 (1st Cir. 2014); cf. Middleton v. McNeil, 
    541 U.S. 433
    , 437 (2004) (per curiam) (concluding that state court did
    not "unreasonably apply federal law when it found that there was
    no   reasonable       likelihood   [a]    jury    was    misled"    by   erroneous
    instruction when other correct instructions were also given).
    The cases in which appellate courts have set aside
    convictions      based    on   unpreserved        claims     of    non-structural
    instructional error are hen's-teeth rare.               Tellingly, the majority
    does not cite a single decision in which we — or any other court,
    for that matter — have set aside a conviction, on plain error
    review,   when    a    trial   judge     has    given   an   undeniably   correct
    instruction but intermingled it with an incorrect instruction on
    the same point.          Cf. 
    Pennue, 770 F.3d at 989
    (finding that
    appellant failed to show that a different result was "reasonably
    likely" when court gave both erroneous and correct reasonable doubt
    instructions); United States v. Rodríguez, 
    735 F.3d 1
    , 11-12 (1st
    Cir. 2013) (finding that appellant failed to show "reasonable
    probability" of different result when verdict form erroneously
    contradicted judge's presumption of innocence instruction).                  As we
    - 35 -
    made clear in 
    Rodríguez, 735 F.3d at 12
    , materials instructing the
    jury "must be read in conjunction with one another."
    The majority's failure to cite any case on point is not
    for lack of trying.         Yet, the closest the majority comes to
    exhuming such a case is United States v. Delgado-Marrero, 
    744 F.3d 167
      (1st     Cir.   2014).       That     case,   though,    is     readily
    distinguishable.      There, the judge failed to instruct the jury, in
    a special verdict form, that its findings on drug quantity had to
    be made beyond a reasonable doubt.           
    Id. at 186.
         The error was
    patent, and the only curative language to which the government
    could point was that the district court had told the jury that its
    deliberations "would be under the same terms and conditions" as
    the other elements of the offense.          
    Id. (internal quotation
    marks
    omitted).    Such oblique language is not even faintly comparable to
    the detailed and correct explanations of "racketeering activity"
    provided by the district judge at numerous points throughout the
    trial in this case.
    So,   too,   the   majority's    effort   to   conjure    up   a
    "reasonable probability" of a different result by reading the
    available tea leaves is unpersuasive.          This effort turns a blind
    eye to the strength of the government's case.          Moreover, it either
    ignores or undervalues a number of other salient considerations.
    I offer a representative sampling:
    - 36 -
    The district judge sent into the jury room copies of
    both his prepared (written) instructions and the indictment.         He
    advised the jurors, before delivering his oral instructions, that
    they would have in the jury room copies of these documents, which
    would be available for their reference in case of doubt.
        The district judge sent into the jury room copies of
    both   his    prepared    (written)   instructions   and   the
    indictment.     He advised the jurors, before delivering
    his oral instructions, that they would have in the jury
    room copies of these documents, which would be available
    for their reference in case of doubt. Importantly, the
    judge made a trenchant observation: he warned the jury,
    that "[i]t is impossible for anyone to be able to
    recollect all those principles of law out of one reading
    by somebody. You need to have it in black and white so
    you can use it as a reference during your deliberations."
    Both the written set of instructions and the indictment
    correctly described the nature of the "racketeering
    activities" that might comprise a proscribed "pattern of
    racketeering activity."       Neither document was infected
    by the misstatements that marred the judge's ad-libbed
    remarks.     Given these facts, common sense suggests that,
    if any confusion existed, the jurors would heed the
    judge's warning and look to the written instructions.
    - 37 -
       The record makes manifest that the parties focused at
    trial   on    the    correct     components      of    a    "pattern    of
    racketeering activity."             The prosecutor — both in his
    opening statement and in his summation — stressed that
    the relevant racketeering predicates consisted of drug-
    trafficking and robbery — offenses that unquestionably
    fell    within      the    proper    purview    of    a     "pattern    of
    racketeering activity."             Nothing in defense counsel's
    opening statement or final argument suggested anything
    to the contrary.          Courts have recognized that the way in
    which parties pitch their arguments to a jury may have
    decretory significance in determining the existence vel
    non of plain error. See, e.g., United States v. Gaviria,
    
    116 F.3d 1498
    , 1511 (D.C. Cir. 1997) (giving weight to
    fact that defense and prosecution both had accurately
    described government's burden to the jury as evidence
    that incorrect instruction on the same point was not
    plain error).
       The    jury    acquitted      the    defendant    on       the    firearms
    conspiracy charge under 18 U.S.C. §§ 924(c)(1)(A) and
    924(o).      Because these were the only firearms offenses,
    the elements of which were presented to the jury, this
    acquittal      further        supports    the        fact        that   the
    racketeering activities for which the jury found the
    - 38 -
    defendant    culpable     were    the   racketeering     activities
    actually proscribed under 18 U.S.C. § 1962, not the
    firearm-focused activities arguably suggested by the
    flawed instructions.
    To say more would be to paint the lily. On this scumbled
    record, it is sheer guesswork to speculate what effect, if any,
    the judge's ad-libbed remarks had on the jury's resolution of the
    RICO     conspiracy   count.    And     guesswork,        of   course,   is   an
    insufficient basis on which to ground a finding of a reasonable
    probability that an unpreserved error altered the outcome of a
    case.    See 
    Bramley, 847 F.3d at 7
    .         After all, where the impact of
    an alleged error is unclear, it should be an a fortiori proposition
    that "a defendant cannot meet his burden of showing that the error
    actually affected his substantial rights."                
    Jones, 527 U.S. at 394-95
    .
    We long have recognized that "the plain error hurdle is
    high."     United States v. Hunnewell, 
    891 F.2d 955
    , 956 (1st Cir.
    1989).    Such a hurdle is not merely a procedural frill; rather, it
    plays a vital role in our multi-tiered system of justice.                As the
    Supreme    Court   has   explained,    timely       and   specific   objections
    "enable a trial court to correct any . . . mistakes before the
    jury retires" and, thus, to avoid the significant costs "of an
    unnecessary retrial." 
    Jones, 527 U.S. at 387-88
    . And this hurdle,
    "high in all events, nowhere looms larger than in the context of
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    alleged instructional errors."           United States v. Paniagua-Ramos,
    
    251 F.3d 242
    , 246 (1st Cir. 2001). The majority's approach shrinks
    this traditional hurdle so drastically that it becomes no hurdle
    at all.
    The crux of the problem in this case is that the majority
    gives this burden nothing more than lip service — and grudging lip
    service at that.      It is not the government's job to rule out any
    possibility    that      the   jury    was     confused   by   the    erroneous
    instruction.    That would put the shoe on the wrong foot.             Instead,
    it is the defendant's job to carry the burden of affirmatively
    demonstrating a reasonable probability that, but for the error, he
    would not have been convicted.           Speculating about possibilities
    does little to show that the defendant succeeded in hoisting that
    burden here.
    I believe that a proper application of the plain error
    doctrine vitiates the claim of error that the majority finds
    dispositive and that the defendant's remaining claims of error are
    impuissant.     Consequently, the defendant's conviction should be
    affirmed.      Because    I    fear   that   the   majority,   in    reaching   a
    different result, not only is wrong but also is reducing the
    difference between review of preserved and unpreserved claims of
    error to the vanishing point, I respectfully dissent.
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