United States v. Rivera-Ortiz ( 2021 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 19-1100
    UNITED STATES,
    Appellee,
    v.
    RICARDO RIVERA-ORTIZ,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. Gustavo A. Gelpí, Jr., U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Howard, Chief Judge,
    Lipez and Thompson, Circuit Judges.
    Victor J. Gonzalez-Bothwell, with whom Eric Alexander Vos,
    Vivianne M. Marrero, Franco L. Pérez-Redondo, Liza L. Rosado-
    Rodríguez, and Iván Santos-Castaldo were on brief, for appellant.
    Robert Paul Coleman III, Assistant United States Attorney,
    with whom B. Kathryn Debrason, Assistant United States Attorney,
    Mariana E. Bauzá-Almonte, Assistant United States Attorney, and W.
    Steven Muldrow, United States Attorney, were on brief, for
    appellee.
    September 21, 2021
    LIPEZ, Circuit Judge.      After suffering a work injury as
    a mechanic for the United States Postal Service ("USPS"), Ricardo
    Rivera-Ortiz began receiving worker's compensation and Social
    Security disability benefits.       As a condition of receiving those
    benefits, Rivera had to file forms indicating whether he was
    undertaking any work or volunteer activities. At some point, after
    Rivera had been receiving benefits for years, the USPS Office of
    the Inspector General ("OIG") began investigating his case.            It
    determined that he had continued working and volunteering with his
    union,   the   American   Postal   Workers'   Union   ("APWU"),   without
    disclosing those activities as required.         Rivera was eventually
    charged with making false statements on the relevant government
    forms, theft of government property, and failing to disclose an
    event that affected his right to Social Security payments.         A jury
    found him guilty on all counts.      He now challenges the sufficiency
    of the evidence to support the convictions, the exclusion of
    certain mitigating evidence, and some aspects of his sentence.         We
    reject these challenges and affirm in all respects.
    I.
    A. Factual Background
    The following facts come from the testimony and exhibits
    presented at trial.       "Since one of the claims addressed in this
    opinion is a challenge to the sufficiency of the evidence, we
    - 2 -
    recount the facts in the light most favorable to the verdict."
    United States v. Paz-Alvarez, 
    799 F.3d 12
    , 18 (1st Cir. 2015).
    On May 25, 2005, while working as a maintenance mechanic
    for USPS, Rivera tripped on a mat and fell, hurting his neck and
    right knee.    As a result of this incident, he filed a claim for
    compensation and disability benefits on June 3, 2005 with the
    Department of Labor, Office of Workers' Compensation Programs
    ("OWCP").     OWCP is responsible for administering the Federal
    Employees Compensation Act ("FECA"), which provides replacement
    wages to federal employees who, like Rivera, are injured on the
    job and unable to work as a result.     See 5 U.S.C. §§ 8102, 8145;
    20 C.F.R. § 10.1.
    Rivera's FECA claim was approved.    In 2006, he began
    receiving regular payments.    In order to confirm that he remained
    eligible for benefits from OWCP, he had to periodically file
    various forms, including CA-1032 forms.   A CA-1032 form covers the
    15 months prior to the date of the form's completion.   As relevant
    here, Part A ("EMPLOYMENT") asks (1) "Did you work for any employer
    during the past 15 months?"; (2) "Were you self-employed or
    involved in any business enterprise in the past 15 months?"; and
    (3) "If you answered 'No' to both questions 1 and 2, state whether
    you were unemployed for all periods during the past 15 months."
    The accompanying Part A instructions require the report of "ALL
    employment for which you received a salary, wages, income, sales
    - 3 -
    commissions, piecework, or payment of any kind," as well as "ALL
    self-employment or involvement in business enterprises," including
    "providing   services    in   exchange    for     money,   goods,   or   other
    services."   This section also requires reporting of "what you were
    paid," including the "value of such things as housing, meals,
    clothing, and reimbursed expenses."
    Part   B    ("VOLUNTEER      WORK")     was    worded   slightly
    differently in different versions of the form.             One version asks
    if the beneficiary "perform[ed] any volunteer work for which ANY
    FORM of monetary or in-kind compensation was received[.]"            Another
    version asks if the beneficiary "perform[ed] any volunteer work
    including volunteer work for which ANY FORM of monetary or in-kind
    compensation was received[.]"      Part D ("OTHER FEDERAL BENEFITS OR
    PAYMENTS") requires the listing of "any benefits received from the
    Social Security Administration (SSA) which you receive as part of
    an annuity under the Federal Employees' Retirement System (FERS)."
    An OWCP claims examiner explained at trial that all of this
    information was important because (1) evidence of capacity to
    perform work could lead to a reduction of OWCP benefits and (2) the
    receipt of other benefits could trigger an offset of OWCP benefits
    or those other benefits, so as to avoid overpayment (i.e., double-
    dipping).
    Separately, Rivera filed a claim on March 20, 2007 for
    Social Security Disability Insurance ("SSDI") benefits.                  SSDI
    - 4 -
    benefits are paid to individuals who are unable to perform work
    and meet other eligibility requirements.        Although Rivera had
    applied for SSDI benefits back in 2005, his claim was denied.     An
    SSA-generated summary of Rivera's 2007 SSDI application1 revealed
    the following: (1) he was unable to work because of his disabling
    condition (based on his May 25, 2005 injury), (2) he had filed or
    intended to file for workers' compensation, but was currently not
    receiving benefits, and (3) he understood that making a false
    statement of a material fact in his application was a criminal
    act.       As part of his application, Rivera also submitted a work
    history form.      As relevant here, Rivera listed his employment as
    a maintenance worker for USPS (from December 2003 until the time
    of his injury in May 2005), but did not mention any other work
    activities undertaken during that period.
    On November 2, 2007, Rivera was notified that his SSDI
    claim was approved, and he began receiving disability benefits.
    The approval notification stated that "[t]he decisions we made on
    your claim are based on information you gave us" and "[i]f this
    information changes, it could affect your benefits."     It referred
    to an accompanying pamphlet that provided more information on "what
    must be reported and how to report[,]" including on "what to do if
    Rivera appears to have applied for SSDI benefits orally;
    1
    SSA "stored the application information electronically" and sent
    him a "summary of [his] statements" which we draw on here.
    - 5 -
    you go to work or if your health improves."         The notification also
    informed    Rivera   that   "[i]f   you   receive   workers'   compensation
    and/or public disability payments, we may have to reduce your
    Social   Security    benefits."      It     therefore   instructed   him   to
    "[p]lease let us know as soon a decision is made on your claim for
    these payments."
    In 2013, after Rivera had been receiving both OWCP and
    SSDI benefits for some years, the USPS Office of the Inspector
    General began an investigation into Rivera's receipt of OWCP
    payments.    The investigation was triggered by reports that Rivera
    had been present at the local USPS headquarters and meeting with
    other employees there in connection with APWU activities.            Rivera,
    as it happened, had long ties to the union, having served as its
    president from 2002 until 2004.           He had also worked as a union
    steward, helping represent other employees, while he was employed
    as a flat sorter machine operator for USPS from 1995 until 2001.
    OIG was interested in whether Rivera was continuing to work for
    the union in some capacity without reporting that work to OWCP.
    The OIG investigation produced evidence that, among
    other things:
    (a)    Rivera had repeatedly visited APWU and USPS headquarters
    in 2011-2013.    At times, according to witness testimony,
    he appeared to be acting as a union official while doing
    so.   An APWU security logbook also indicated that he
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    made many visits to APWU headquarters between February
    2011 and August 2013.
    (b)   Rivera had performed work for the APWU.         He signed a
    contract with the union to work as part of the Election
    Committee for the union's 2013 election.          Moreover,
    Rivera had received payments from APWU in 2011-2013,
    including reimbursements for APWU-related travel and
    expenses.   For example, he received $160 in wages and
    $68 in meals and mileage reimbursement relating to work
    for the APWU election committee between July 31 and
    August 9, 2013.      He was also nominated for an OWCP-
    sponsored   injury    compensation   training    course   in
    Florida, which he attended in August 2013.      According to
    his nomination letter, this was because he "currently
    work[s] processing Injury Compensation cases[.]"
    (c)   Rivera had helped fellow employees with various labor-
    related issues.      For example, he helped represent at
    least 56 postal employees in various Equal Employment
    Opportunity complaints filed between 2005 and 2012,
    assisted one employee with an injury compensation claim
    in 2011, and wrote to the Merit Systems Protection Board
    on behalf of another employee's claim in 2012.
    According to the government, however, Rivera never reported on his
    OWCP forms that he worked for the union.        Indeed, on August 8,
    - 7 -
    2013, just over a month after Rivera had filed his latest CA-1032
    form, undercover OIG employees (posing as a Department of Labor
    contractor and a translator) met with Rivera.            They asked him to
    complete another CA-1032 while they reviewed the instructions
    together.    As a government investigator explained at trial, this
    arrangement was designed to make sure that Rivera understood the
    "importance of being truthful on those forms" and that there was
    "no doubt" in his mind about what his answers were.               When the
    interviewer asked whether, in the past fifteen months, Rivera had
    performed any work for an employer, had been self-employed or
    involved in any business enterprise, or had performed any volunteer
    work, Rivera said "no" each time and indicated similarly on the
    form. Likewise, according to the government, Rivera never reported
    his work or any income to the SSA.
    B. Procedural History
    Rivera was indicted on August 30, 2013 and eventually
    tried on the following five charges:
    (a)    three   false   statements    counts   (18   U.S.C.   §   1001),
    corresponding to three allegedly fraudulent CA-1032s
    dated June 25, 2012, June 25, 2013, and August 8, 2013,
    (b)    a theft of government property count (18 U.S.C. §§ 641-
    642), alleging the theft of $6,209.70 in SSDI benefits
    between "on or about" July 22, 2013 and August 30, 2013,
    and
    - 8 -
    (c)   a failure to disclose count (42 U.S.C. § 408(a)(4)),
    relating to his failure to tell the SSA, between "on or
    about" July 22, 2013 and August 30, 2013, about his work
    activities, which allegedly resulted in the receipt of
    $7,808.80 in SSDI payments to which he was not entitled.
    After a nearly two-week jury trial, Rivera was convicted on all
    five counts.       He was sentenced to three years of probation and
    ordered to pay restitution of $4,139.80 to SSA.
    II.
    On appeal, Rivera makes four arguments. First, he claims
    that there was insufficient evidence to support convictions on any
    of the five counts.      Second, he challenges the district court's
    grant of a government motion in limine prohibiting Rivera from
    presenting evidence that the "real fault" in the case lay with
    USPS, OWCP, or SSA "for failing to prevent the fraud."            Rivera
    maintains that this ruling unfairly prevented him from presenting
    significant exculpatory evidence.         Third, Rivera argues that the
    district court improperly calculated the relevant "loss amount"
    attributable to his offenses, which led in turn to an excessive
    offense    level    calculation   under    the   Sentencing   Guidelines.
    Finally, Rivera claims that there was insufficient support for the
    amount of restitution imposed.      We discuss each argument in turn.
    - 9 -
    A. Sufficiency of the Evidence
    1.     Standard of review
    Rivera's sufficiency challenges were raised below in
    pre-verdict motions for judgments of acquittal.              When preserved,
    sufficiency challenges present questions of law and are reviewed
    de novo.    United States v. Ayala-Vazquez, 
    751 F.3d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir.
    2014).     In conducting that review, we interpret the evidence in
    the light most favorable to the jury's verdict.             United States v.
    Peña-Santo, 
    809 F.3d 686
    , 696 (1st Cir. 2015).                   We then ask
    whether, viewing the evidence in that light, any reasonable jury
    could have found that the government proved the essential elements
    of its case beyond a reasonable doubt.             
    Id.
    But    here,    according   to   the   government,   a   different
    standard applies.      The government says that, because Rivera did
    not file a post-verdict motion for acquittal, he waived his
    sufficiency claim.     Waiver applies, the government maintains, even
    though Rivera moved for acquittal based on insufficient evidence
    after the close of the government's case -- and renewed that motion
    after the close of his own.
    In    support   of   this   position,    the   government   relies
    solely on a passing statement from United States v. Dudley, 
    804 F.3d 506
     (1st Cir. 2015).        There, we noted that the defendant had
    waived his motion for judgment of acquittal by "fail[ing] to renew
    [it] at the close of the entire case (after offering evidence in
    - 10 -
    his defense) and following the guilty verdict." 
    Id. at 519
     (citing
    United States v. Maldonado–García, 
    446 F.3d 227
    , 230 (1st Cir.
    2006)).   The government suggests that, rather than just explaining
    why the claim was waived in that particular case, this line from
    Dudley establishes a rule: that both a pre- and post-verdict motion
    are needed to avoid waiver of a sufficiency challenge.                 But, as
    made clear by the very case relied upon by Dudley in making that
    statement, it is the "combine[d]" omission of a proper pre- and
    post-verdict     motion   for   acquittal     that    constitutes      waiver.
    Maldonado–García, 
    446 F.3d at 230
    ; see also 2A Charles Alan Wright
    & Arthur R. Miller, Federal Practice and Procedure § 469 (4th ed.
    2021) ("When defendant files the appropriate motion under Rule 29
    during    or   after   trial,   then   the   standard    of   review    for   a
    sufficiency of the evidence claim is de novo." (emphasis added)).
    In other words, as we have said, when a defendant makes a proper
    pre-verdict motion for acquittal on a particular count, the motion
    is "not waived," even if he "fail[s] to contest his conviction as
    to that count in his post-verdict motion."           United States v. Pena,
    
    586 F.3d 105
    , 111 n.5 (1st Cir. 2009).2          In short, we reject the
    2 Reading Dudley as requiring both pre- and post-verdict
    motions for acquittal is unsustainable for a separate reason. Rule
    29 itself provides that a defendant is "not required to move for
    a judgment of acquittal before the court submits the case to the
    jury as a prerequisite for making such a motion after jury
    discharge." Fed. R. Crim. P. 29(c)(3); see also United States v.
    Castro-Lara, 
    970 F.2d 976
    , 980 (1st Cir. 1992) (confirming that "a
    defendant who files a time[ly] post-trial motion for acquittal
    - 11 -
    notion that a separate post-verdict motion under Rule 29(c) is
    required to avoid waiver even after the filing of a proper pre-
    verdict motion under Rule 29(a).
    2.    Analysis
    (a) False statement charges
    We first consider the three false statement charges
    under 18 U.S.C. § 1001.       To sustain a § 1001 conviction, "the
    government must prove that the defendant (1) made a material, false
    statement (2) in a matter within the jurisdiction of the government
    (3) knowing that the statement was false."             United States v.
    Vázquez-Soto, 
    939 F.3d 365
    , 371 (1st Cir. 2019).         Rivera concedes
    (and conceded at trial) that he did not fill out the three CA-1032
    forms   correctly,    but   maintains   that   there   was   insufficient
    evidence that (1) he knew the statements were false or (2) that
    the false statements were material.
    As to knowledge, Rivera argues that it was difficult to
    understand and fill out the CA-1032 forms, and thus any false
    statements were not knowingly false.           He also points to his
    interview with the undercover OIG investigator, where he openly
    expressed an interest in working in some capacity.               He also
    suggests that he was generally open and unapologetic about his
    ongoing work with the union.     These statements and actions, Rivera
    stands on the same footing as a defendant who moves for acquittal
    at the close of all the evidence").
    - 12 -
    maintains, are inconsistent with the theory that he knowingly
    filled out the forms incorrectly.
    The jury, however, also heard testimony from a former
    APWU president that Rivera had extensive experience as a union
    official and assisted other members with OWCP issues.               Indeed, he
    was nominated for a special OWCP training course specifically
    because he had experience processing injury compensation cases.
    Additionally, the CA-1032 forms and related documents repeatedly
    warned Rivera about the need to honestly disclose his work and
    volunteer activities.     For example, the CA-1032 form spelled out,
    in all-caps, that "SEVERE PENALTIES MAY BE APPLIED FOR FAILURE TO
    REPORT   ALL   WORK   ACTIVITIES    THOROUGHLY    AND    COMPLETELY."        A
    reasonable     jury   could   infer,   based     on   Rivera's      extensive
    experience and these repeated warnings, that he knew he had to
    disclose his work and volunteer activities but chose not to.               See
    Vázquez-Soto, 939 F.3d at 372 ("Evidence of a defendant's culpable
    state of mind may be 'gleaned from . . . circumstantial evidence
    presented at trial.'" (quoting United States v. Troisi, 
    849 F.3d 490
    , 494 (1st Cir. 2017))).
    Rivera's    strongest     argument    is     that   he    did   not
    specifically know that he had to disclose volunteer activities for
    which he was not paid.        One version of the CA-1032 form -- the
    version completed by Rivera during the interview on August 8, 2013
    -- is potentially somewhat confusing in this regard, as Part B
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    ("VOLUNTEER   WORK")       asks    if    the    beneficiary      "perform[ed]   any
    volunteer    work    for     which      ANY    FORM   of   monetary   or   in-kind
    compensation was received[.]"                 Indeed, when the undercover OIG
    agents mentioned volunteering, Rivera sought clarification:
    MR. RIVERA:           That's if I'm getting paid for it; right?
    [AGENT 1]:            Yeah, or your volunteer activities, you
    report -- you know, maybe you belong to
    American Legion if you're a vet. I don't
    know if they have it here.
    MR. RIVERA:           Yeah.
    [AGENT 1]:            Yeah. Some people -- like say you're the
    treasurer or whatever, you would need to
    report that, because you do work --
    MR. RIVERA:           Okay.
    [AGENT 1]:            -- for them. So --
    [AGENT 2]:            Church groups and stuff.
    [AGENT 1]:            Church groups, social organizations,
    real employment, like maybe you have a
    contract in business, or you do child
    care, whatever.
    Rivera   argues     that    this   muddled      exchange    --   particularly   the
    agent's initial reply to Rivera's direct question about payment
    -- reasonably suggests that Rivera thought he only had to report
    paid volunteer activities.
    However, for two of the counts -- Counts 1 and 3 -- this
    argument is of no help, since Rivera had actually been paid some
    wages for APWU work during the relevant time period (i.e., fifteen
    months prior to the completion of each respective form).                    As for
    - 14 -
    Count 2, there appears to be no evidence that he was paid wages
    during the relevant period, but the evidence does show that Rivera
    was reimbursed for at least one official union-related expense3 and
    regularly logged into the APWU headquarters log-book during that
    time.    From this evidence, a reasonable jury could conclude -- as
    the district court did in denying the motion for judgment of
    acquittal on Count 2 -- that the evidence of official reimbursement
    showed that Rivera was performing at least some kind of work for
    the union during the relevant period.           And, crucially, the language
    of the specific form pertaining to Count 2 did not include the
    arguably confusing language about paid volunteer work.                   That is,
    it did not limit its definition of volunteer work to "volunteer
    work" for which some kind of compensation was received; rather, it
    asked whether Rivera "perform[ed] any volunteer work including
    volunteer    work     for    which   ANY   FORM   of     monetary   or    in-kind
    compensation was received" (first emphasis added).                   Therefore,
    regardless of the lack of evidence of paid wages, a reasonable jury
    could infer that Rivera was performing volunteer work during the
    relevant    period,    was    required     to   report    that   activity,    and
    knowingly failed to do so.
    3 Specifically, Rivera was reimbursed for paying the $50
    hospital deductible for a union member whom he took to the
    emergency room after she had a health incident at work.
    - 15 -
    As   to   materiality,       Rivera's      argument   is    brief   and
    underdeveloped.        He   suggests,      without      elaboration,     that   the
    government failed to show exactly how Rivera's benefits would be
    impacted by the false statements.               But an OWCP claims examiner
    explained at trial that reporting work and volunteer activity is
    important because evidence of capacity to perform work triggers
    further review of a claim and could lead to a reduction of OWCP
    benefits.    This showing is sufficient.              To establish materiality,
    a statement "merely ha[s] to be of a type which would have a
    'natural    tendency'       to    influence      an     investigation     in    the
    'abstract.'"     United States v. Chen, 
    998 F.3d 1
    , 10 (1st Cir. 2021)
    (quoting United States v. Phillipos, 
    849 F.3d 464
    , 473 (1st Cir.
    2017)).
    (b) Remaining counts
    As   mentioned,      the   final    two    counts   both   relate   to
    Rivera's receipt of Social Security benefits.                   Under 18 U.S.C.
    § 641, it    is a crime to "embezzle[], steal[], purloin[], or
    knowingly convert[] . . . money, or [a] thing of value of the
    United States or of any department or agency."              To win a conviction
    on this count, the government had to produce evidence "sufficient
    to allow a rational factfinder to conclude beyond a reasonable
    doubt that [the defendant] had specific intent to 'steal . . . a
    thing of value' from the United States."              United States v. Donato-
    Morales, 
    382 F.3d 42
    , 47 (1st Cir. 2004) (quoting 18 U.S.C. § 641).
    - 16 -
    Under 42 U.S.C. § 408(a)(4), it is a crime for anyone (1) with
    knowledge of an event affecting his or her initial or continued
    right to an SSA payment (2) to conceal or fail to disclose that
    event to the SSA (3) with an intent to secure payment fraudulently
    (i.e., in an amount greater than was due to him or her or when no
    payment was authorized).         See United States v. Phythian, 
    529 F.3d 807
    , 812 (8th Cir. 2008).
    Rivera challenges the intent element as to both counts,
    claiming that there was no demonstrable intent on his part to
    conceal   his    action   or   steal   from   or   defraud   SSA.     But   the
    government      introduced     evidence   that,    when   Rivera    previously
    applied for SSDI benefits (in 2005), he had listed his work as a
    union steward, which he undertook as part of his USPS maintenance
    job duties from 1995-2001.         That 2005 claim was rejected, on the
    grounds that he was able to perform at least one prior job.                 When
    Rivera applied again in 2007, he omitted that information.                    A
    reasonable jury could conclude that Rivera "learned his lesson"
    and knowingly omitted that information in order to qualify the
    second time around.       Additionally, Rivera received pamphlets and
    instructions making clear that he needed to report jobs or work
    activity to SSA.      A reasonable jury could likewise conclude that
    Rivera was aware of his obligations but chose not to notify SSA in
    order to protect his eligibility.          Rivera makes no argument as to
    why these inferences are unreasonable.
    - 17 -
    B. Motion in Limine
    We next consider whether the court properly granted the
    government's motion prohibiting Rivera from presenting evidence
    that the "real fault" in the case lay with USPS, OWCP, or SSA "for
    failing to prevent the fraud."             We review a district court's
    decision to admit or exclude evidence for abuse of discretion.
    See Torres-Arroyo v. Rullán, 
    436 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st Cir. 2006).            Under
    that standard, we will overturn a particular ruling "only if it
    plainly appears that the court committed an error of law or a clear
    mistake of judgment."     
    Id.
    In this case, the district court repeatedly justified
    its exclusionary ruling based on a concern that Rivera, in drawing
    attention to the lack of action by the relevant agencies, might be
    suggesting a kind of "blame-shifting" defense that would confuse
    jurors.    In considering the propriety of that ruling, we accept
    Rivera's argument that the fact that "USPS, the DOL, OWCP, and SSA
    knew    that   Mr.   Rivera     was     performing   duties   as   a   Union
    representative" could be relevant, insofar as their knowledge
    could suggest that he lacked the requisitely culpable state of
    mind.   That is, his openness (and the corresponding lack of action
    by the relevant agencies, despite their knowledge) might have
    confirmed in his mind that "all was well" -- i.e., that he was
    disclosing all that he needed to disclose and that he was not
    required to report any of his union activities to either OWCP or
    - 18 -
    SSA.     "Relevancy,         however,     is    a    condition     precedent    to
    admissibility,    not    an    ironclad        guarantee   of    admissibility."
    Torres-Arroyo, 
    436 F.3d at 7
    .           The Federal Rules of Evidence allow
    a   district   court    to    exclude    even       relevant    evidence   if   its
    "probative value is substantially outweighed by a danger of . . .
    confusing the issues [or] misleading the jury."                    Fed. R. Evid.
    403; see also United States v. Schneider, 
    111 F.3d 197
    , 202 (1st
    Cir. 1997) (finding "evidence [of intent that] may have been
    relevant but only to a limited degree" was properly excluded when
    "it had a substantial capacity to mislead the jury").
    Here, the district court's overall concern of juror
    confusion was reasonable.         After all, whether or not particular
    employees at the agencies were negligent or less-than-diligent in
    reporting Rivera's work activities to anyone was not directly at
    issue in this case.           Particular employees may not have been
    familiar with Rivera's status, scope of activities, or reporting
    obligations.     Indeed, they may have simply assumed that he was
    actually reporting his activities as required.
    With these general considerations in mind, we turn to
    the questions that were ultimately precluded by the in limine
    order.   In making his argument here, Rivera has identified only
    one specific line of witness questioning that                     he claims     was
    improperly barred.      Namely, Rivera argues that he was prevented at
    trial from asking Juan Delgado, a USPS human resources manager,
    - 19 -
    whether     Delgado    should     have   notified   DOL    that   Rivera    was
    volunteering.         Rivera was also prevented from eliciting from
    Delgado whether Rivera had asked him for a job.                While Delgado's
    failure to report Rivera's activities and Rivera's request to
    Delgado for a job may have been slightly probative as to Rivera's
    state of mind, both questions also raised some risk of juror
    confusion, as they again arguably suggest that Delgado either had
    some duty to report Rivera's request to the proper authorities or
    that   Rivera   had     somehow    absolved   himself     by   indicating   his
    willingness and ability to work to someone at USPS.                Given that
    there was ample other evidence of Rivera's openness about his
    activities (e.g., that Rivera had been seen accompanying union
    officials at USPS headquarters and, as the district court noted,
    that Rivera met with various other USPS officials), additional
    evidence of Rivera's openness with Delgado had limited probative
    value.    See United States v. Varoudakis, 
    233 F.3d 113
    , 122 (1st
    Cir. 2000) (noting that "[t]he probative value of any particular
    bit of evidence is obviously affected by the scarcity or abundance
    of other evidence on the same point" (quoting 22 Charles A. Wright
    & Kenneth A. Graham, Jr., Federal Practice and Procedure § 5250
    (1978))).    The district court therefore was "well within the ambit
    of [its] discretion" in concluding that the probative value of
    these questions was substantially outweighed by the danger of
    misleading the jury.       Torres-Arroyo, 
    436 F.3d at 7
    .
    - 20 -
    C. Loss Calculation
    We turn next to Rivera's argument against the loss
    calculation the district court performed under the Sentencing
    Guidelines.     In doing so,    "[w]e review the district court's
    interpretation and application of the sentencing guidelines de
    novo and factual findings for clear error."           United States v.
    Tavares, 
    705 F.3d 4
    , 24 (1st Cir. 2013) (quoting United States v.
    Cortés–Cabán, 
    691 F.3d 1
    , 26 (1st Cir. 2012)).
    We begin with some background.           For crimes involving
    larceny, embezzlement, or other forms of theft, the Sentencing
    Guidelines    recommend   different   offense   levels   based   on   the
    monetary loss associated with the offense.             See U.S. Sent'g
    Guidelines Manual ("U.S.S.G.")        § 2B1.1(b)   (U.S. Sent'g Comm'n
    2018).   In this context, "loss" can include both "actual" and
    "intended" loss. Id. § 2B1.1 cmt. 3(A). In this case, the district
    court accepted that Rivera intended a loss of $899,328.38 -- the
    total amount of OWCP and SSA benefits paid to Rivera since his
    initial applications.     That conclusion, in turn, led the court to
    apply a 14-point enhancement to Rivera's total offense level.
    Rivera claims that this intended loss amount (and corresponding
    enhancement) was far too high.
    We first confront one argument raised by the government.
    It suggests that, even if the district court made a mistake in the
    loss calculation, any mistake was harmless, since the district
    - 21 -
    court departed downward from the guidelines recommendation and
    imposed only a probationary sentence.          But our precedents do not
    permit us to assume harmlessness in this fashion.             There is still
    a reasonable possibility that the high guidelines range calculated
    by the district court had an anchoring effect and influenced its
    assessment of the appropriate punishment.            See United States v.
    Alphas, 
    785 F.3d 775
    , 780 (1st Cir. 2015) ("Although the court
    below imposed a sentence beneath the bottom of the GSR [guideline
    sentencing range], there is at least a possibility that the court
    would have imposed an even more lenient sentence had it started
    with a lower GSR.").         Unlike United States v. Arif, 
    897 F.3d 1
    (1st Cir. 2018), upon which the government relies, here there was
    no statement by the district court to the effect that "regardless
    of the Guidelines calculation," he or she would have "reach[ed]
    the same result" as to the appropriate sentence.                   
    Id. at 12
    (alteration in original) (second internal quotation marks and
    citation omitted).
    Proceeding to the merits of the loss calculation itself,
    we find no error. The Sentencing Guidelines explain that, in cases
    of government benefits fraud, loss "shall be considered to be not
    less   than    the   value   of   the   benefits   obtained   by   unintended
    recipients or diverted to unintended uses."          U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt.
    3(F)(ii).      In other words, a district court should try to parse
    out which benefits were legitimately paid and which were not, and
    - 22 -
    base the loss amount on only the latter.             Id. ("For example, if
    the defendant was the intended recipient of food stamps having a
    value of $100 but fraudulently received food stamps having a value
    of $150, loss is $50."); see also Alphas, 785 F.3d at 783 ("The
    best way to gauge the seriousness of a fraud offense is to
    determine how much the fraudster set out to swindle -- and no
    fraudster sets out to swindle sums that he would have been paid
    anyway.").
    In Alphas, however, we recognized in our discussion of
    intended loss that -- at least where "a defendant's claims [are]
    demonstrably rife with fraud" -- "a sentencing court may use the
    face value of the claims as a starting point in computing loss."
    785 F.3d at 784.       The burden of production then shifts to the
    defendant, "who must offer evidence to show (if possible) what
    amounts represent legitimate claims."           Id.    And then, finally,
    "the sentencing court must determine the amount of loss that the
    government    (which   retains   the   burden   of    proof)   is   able   to
    establish."   Id.   At the end of the day, the court "need only make
    a reasonable estimate of the loss."        U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1 cmt. 3(C).
    Indeed, "[d]epending on the defendant's offer of proof, the court
    might well conclude that the amount of loss is equal to the face
    value of the submitted claims."        Alphas, 785 F.3d at 784.
    Here, the district court used the face value of Rivera's
    total benefits as a starting point for the loss calculation, which
    - 23 -
    the   government      had   substantiated      by   introducing      OWCP   payment
    history reports and Social Security beneficiary lists.                      As the
    district court reasoned, using the face value of the claims was
    appropriate given that, "ab initio," Rivera "had an obligation to
    report . . . and because he didn't . . . everything is basically
    an illegal amount he's receiving since that outset."                     The court
    continued: "[H]ad he reported . . . [his benefits] could have been
    recalculated, but because he didn't he's getting the benefit of
    everything.       And his intent is to get that entire benefit and you
    just can't separate that."
    Given the court's reasonable acceptance of the face
    value     of    the   benefits   as   the   initial       basis    for   the   loss
    calculation, it then fell to Rivera to establish which portion of
    those amounts "represent[ed] legitimate claims."                  Alphas, 785 F.3d
    at 784.    On appeal, however, Rivera does not point to any evidence
    delineating what portion of the benefits were legitimate, or even
    how he could establish such a figure.               Rather, he argues that it
    remained the government's burden to show the amount of fraudulent,
    as    opposed    to   legitimate,     claims.       But    that    contention   is
    inconsistent with the framework outlined in Alphas.                   In light of
    Rivera's failure to meet his evidentiary burden, we conclude that
    the court reasonably concluded that the amount of loss was equal
    to the face value of the claims.
    - 24 -
    Rivera also briefly suggests that the loss calculation
    was excessive because it included losses incurred outside of the
    timeframe set forth in the indictment.         But "[i]n calculating loss
    amounts under the Guidelines, a district court evaluates losses
    stemming from the conduct of conviction and any relevant conduct."
    United States v. Curran, 
    525 F.3d 74
    , 78 (1st Cir. 2008) (emphasis
    added).    In cases like this one, "relevant conduct" includes
    conduct that was "part of the same course of conduct or common
    scheme    or   plan   as     the   offense    of     conviction."    U.S.S.G.
    § 1B1.3(a)(2).4       And,   significantly,        "[r]elevant    conduct   may
    include both acquitted and uncharged conduct."             United States v.
    Cox, 
    851 F.3d 113
    , 121 (1st Cir. 2017).            Against this background,
    Rivera does not adequately explain why his earlier claims should
    not be considered relevant conduct.          See United States v. Bennett,
    
    37 F.3d 687
    , 694 (1st Cir. 1994) (concluding district court erred
    in refusing to consider amounts of uncharged fraudulent loans in
    its loss calculation when they constituted relevant conduct).
    D. Restitution Amount
    Finally, we consider Rivera's challenge to the amount of
    restitution    imposed.       Restitution     orders    imposed     under   the
    4 This definition of relevant conduct governs because it
    applies to crimes that are "grouped" under U.S.S.G. § 3D1.2(d).
    Here, Rivera's five offenses -- all involving theft and fraud --
    were grouped under that provision because the overall offense level
    was determined on "the basis of the total amount of harm or loss."
    U.S.S.G. § 3D1.2(d).
    - 25 -
    Mandatory Victims Restitution Act ("MVRA"), 18 U.S.C. § 3663A, are
    generally reviewed only for an abuse of discretion, with their
    underlying factual findings reviewed for clear error.            See United
    States v. Hensley, 
    91 F.3d 274
    , 277 (1st Cir. 1996).                    "[W]e
    consider only whether the restitution award has 'a rational basis
    in the record.'"    United States v. González-Calderón, 
    920 F.3d 83
    ,
    85 (1st Cir. 2019) (quoting United States v. Salas-Fernández, 
    620 F.3d 45
    , 48 (1st Cir. 2010)).
    Here, the government initially requested $899,328.38 in
    restitution   --   the   same   amount   as   the    intended   loss   amount
    discussed above, which in turn corresponded to the full amount of
    SSA and OWCP benefits paid to Rivera. The district court, however,
    decided that it could only impose restitution for the conduct
    covered by the offenses of conviction.              Hence, for the CA-1032
    false statement charges, the court ruled that the government could
    only recover for the losses caused between March 25, 2011, and
    August 8, 2013, corresponding to the period of 15 months prior to
    the execution of the false CA-1032 forms.           Similarly, for the SSA-
    related charges, the court determined that the government could
    only recover for the losses caused between July 22, 2013 and August
    30, 2013, the time period spelled out in the indictment for those
    charges.
    - 26 -
    The government attempted to comply with the court's
    ruling,    representing          that       $144,588.905       in   OWCP    benefits      and
    $4,139.80 in SSA benefits were paid during the relevant time
    periods.      But       the    district          court    then   determined        that   the
    government    could       not,    as        in    the    Guidelines      loss-calculation
    context, merely rely on the face value of the benefits paid.
    Instead,     the    district       court          correctly      noted     that,    in    the
    restitution context, the government had to demonstrate actual
    losses.     See United States v. Innarelli, 
    524 F.3d 286
    , 290 & n.4
    (1st Cir. 2008) (explaining that intended loss can be used "for
    purposes     of    determining          a        defendant's     sentence"     under      the
    Guidelines,       but   "for     purposes          of    determining     the   restitution
    portion of a defendant's punishment, only actual loss may be taken
    into account").         The district court found the government had met
    this standard as to the SSA benefits, but not as to the OWCP
    benefits.     It therefore ordered Rivera to pay only the $4,139.80
    in restitution to SSA.
    5 Even though the district court had explicitly limited OWCP
    restitution to benefits paid between March 25, 2011 and August 8,
    2013, the government included amounts paid from March 25, 2011
    until August 8, 2014 in its calculation of $144,588.90. The court
    referred to this figure without noting any incongruity. Since, as
    we explain below, the court ultimately ruled that restitution was
    limited to actual losses, which the government failed to establish
    as to all OWCP benefits, the discrepancy ultimately makes no
    difference. For the record, though, the government later stated
    the actual amount of OWCP benefits paid between March 25, 2011 and
    August 8, 2013 was $140,684.90.
    - 27 -
    Given the posture of the case, our responsibility is
    only to review the appropriateness of the final restitution amount
    ordered.       In challenging that amount of restitution, Rivera again
    argues that the district court failed to determine whether some of
    those payments were legitimate.                Under the MVRA, there is a
    causation standard: "restitution should not be ordered if the loss
    would    have    occurred   regardless    of    the    defendant's    misconduct
    underlying the offense of conviction."                United States v. Cutter,
    
    313 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st Cir. 2002); see also Alphas, 785 F.3d at 786
    (requiring "a but-for connection between the defendant's fraud and
    the victim's loss").        Thus, as Rivera suggests, if the SSA would
    have    paid    Rivera   some   amount    of    SSDI     benefits    absent   his
    concealment, those funds should not be included in the restitution
    order.     In essence, they would not be attributable to Rivera's
    false statements.
    Here, however, there was some evidence that, absent
    Rivera's concealment, he would have received no benefits at all.
    As discussed above, Rivera originally included his work as a union
    steward in his 2005 application for SSA benefits. That application
    was denied.       When he applied in 2007, he omitted that work, and
    his application was approved.            This sequence suggests that his
    concealment of his union activities was the decisive factor in
    whether he received SSDI benefits at all.                   As a result, the
    district court could conclude that the total amount of SSDI
    - 28 -
    benefits paid during the relevant period amounted to SSA's actual
    loss.    Said   differently,       Rivera's    SSA   application    history
    represents "a modicum of reliable evidence" that the district court
    could rely on in determining the appropriate amount of restitution.
    González-Calderón,    920   F.3d   at   85    (quoting   United   States   v.
    Naphaeng, 
    906 F.3d 173
    , 179 (1st Cir. 2018)).
    Affirmed.
    - 29 -