United States v. Rivera-Carrasquillo , 933 F.3d 33 ( 2019 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    Nos. 14-1582
    14-1631
    14-1715
    17-1317
    17-1729
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    LUIS D. RIVERA-CARRASQUILLO, a/k/a Danny KX, a/k/a Danny Vorki;
    EDWIN BERNARD ASTACIO-ESPINO, a/k/a Bernard, a/k/a Bernal;
    RAMÓN LANZA-VÁZQUEZ, a/k/a Ramoncito,
    Defendants, Appellants.
    APPEALS FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. José Antonio Fusté, U.S. District Judge]
    [Hon. Aida M. Delgado-Colón, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Howard, Chief Judge,
    Thompson and Barron, Circuit Judges.
    Peter Goldberger for the consolidated appellants and on
    brief, with Pamela A. Wilk, for appellant Luis D. Rivera-
    Carrasquillo.
    Inga L. Parsons for the consolidated appellants and on brief
    for appellant Ramón Lanza-Vázquez.
    Mariem J. Paez on brief for appellant Edwin Bernard Astacio-
    Espino.
    Victor   O.  Acevedo-Hernández,   Assistant  United   States
    Attorney, with whom Rosa Emilia Rodríguez-Vélez, United States
    Attorney, Mariana E. Bauzá-Almonte, Assistant United States
    Attorney, Chief, Appellate Division, and Francisco A. Besosa-
    Martínez, Assistant United States Attorney, were on brief, for
    appellee.
    August 2, 2019
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.
    Overview
    For many years, a vicious gang called "La ONU" committed
    unspeakably brutal crimes in Puerto Rico, raking in millions of
    dollars from drug sales and killing anyone (and we mean anyone) in
    its way — police officers, defectors, rivals in the "La Rompe ONU"
    gang, you name it.1   Law enforcement eventually took La ONU down,
    however.   And a federal grand jury criminally indicted scores of
    its members, including appellants Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez,
    and Rivera-Carasquillo (their full names and aliases appear in our
    case caption).2   A bone-chilling read, the superseding indictment
    (the operative indictment in this case) accused each of these three
    gangbangers of doing some or all of the following:
       conspiring to violate the Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt
    Organizations Act, see 18 U.S.C. 1961(d) — familiarly called
    the RICO conspiracy statute;
       aiding and abetting violent crimes in aid of racketeering,
    namely murder or attempted murder under Puerto Rico law, see
    18 U.S.C. 1959(a) — commonly called the VICAR statute;
    1For the backstory on how La ONU and La Rompe ONU came to
    be, check out United States v. Ramírez-Rivera, 
    800 F.3d 1
    , 12-13
    (1st Cir. 2015). And as we did there, from now on we will refer
    to La Rompe ONU as "La Rompe."
    2We will sometimes refer to       them   collectively   as   "our
    appellants" or just "appellants."
    - 3 -
       aiding and abetting the use and carrying of firearms during
    VICAR murders, see 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 924
    (c)(1)(A), 924(j)(1) and
    (2);
       knowingly    transferring    a   firearm    for     use   during    VICAR
    murders, see 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (h);
       conspiring to engage in drug trafficking, see 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 846
    , 860; and
       conspiring    to   possess   firearms      during     drug-trafficking
    crimes, see 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (o).
    After Astacio-Espino moved unsuccessfully to suppress
    material seized by the government, the case went to trial.                  And
    the evidence there painted a damning picture of what the trio did
    with La ONU, as a sampling makes clear.
    A drug-point owner and enforcer (an enforcer hunts down
    and kills "the enemy," by the way), Astacio-Espino helped murder
    a police officer and a La Rompe member known as "Pekeke" (whose
    real name was Christian Toledo-Sánchez).3          Lanza-Vázquez also was
    a drug-point owner and enforcer.       Along with other La ONU members,
    he helped kill someone thought to be a "squeal[er]."                 Rivera-
    Carasquillo was not just a drug-point owner and enforcer.                He was
    a leader too.      He also participated in Pekeke's slaying.             And he
    3The nickname is variously spelled in the record.             We adopt
    the spelling employed in the parties' briefs.
    - 4 -
    helped murder someone accused of shooting at a La ONU leader as
    the   leader   drove    through     a    La       Rompe-allied    area.     Rivera-
    Carasquillo choked him while others from La ONU stomped on his
    chest until he died.         To send a message, apparently, Rivera-
    Carasquillo (according to a cooperating witness) "went at" the
    person "with [an] AK [rifle] and just removed his face" — i.e.,
    Rivera-Carasquillo "[e]rased his face."
    Taking      everything       in    —    testimony     from   cooperating
    coconspirators, law-enforcement officials, and forensic-science
    experts; autopsy and crime-scene photos; physical evidence in the
    form of seized guns, ammo, and drugs, etc. — the jury found
    Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo guilty as
    charged.   And the district judge imposed a number of sentences on
    them, including life sentences (because they do not contest their
    sentences, we need say no more about that subject).
    Hoping to score a new trial, Astacio-Espino, Lanza-
    Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo later filed two post-trial motions
    — one claiming that a partial closure of the courtroom during jury
    selection constituted "plain, reversible error," and the other
    alleging that a cooperating witness in a related case had given a
    different account of Pekeke's murder.                But they had no success.4
    4So far as relevant here, two district judges had roles in
    today's case:   Judge José Antonio Fusté, now retired, handled
    everything except the new-trial activity, which then-Chief Judge
    - 5 -
    Now   before   us,     Astacio-Espino,   Lanza-Vázquez,   and
    Rivera-Carasquillo press a variety of claims. We tackle the claims
    one by one below, highlighting only those facts needed to put
    things in perspective.    But for those who want our conclusion up
    front:   after slogging through the issues, we affirm the contested
    convictions.5
    Suppression Claim
    Background
    Astacio-Espino moved pretrial to suppress a cache of
    guns and drugs seized during the warrantless search of a house
    (and the SUV garaged there) belonging to Ismael E. Cruz-Ramos — a
    person indicted with our appellants but whose trial was before a
    different district judge:       Judge William E. Smith (of the District
    of Rhode Island, sitting by designation), rather than Judge Fusté.
    Aida M. Delgado-Colón took care of after Judge Fusté left the
    bench.
    5 Appellants try to adopt each other's arguments — something
    they can do if they "connect the arguments adopted with the
    specific facts pertaining" to them. See United States v. Bennett,
    
    75 F.3d 40
    , 49 (1st Cir. 1996) (discussing Fed. R. App. P. 28(i));
    see also United States v. David, 
    940 F.2d 722
    , 737 (1st Cir. 1991)
    (noting that arguments adopted by reference "must be readily
    transferrable from the proponent's case to the adopter's case").
    The government thinks none of them has sufficiently shown that he
    is in the same factual or legal boat as the proponent of each
    issue. But because the arguments raised are not winning ones, we
    will assume without deciding that each appellant effectively
    joined in the issues that relate to his situation. See Ramírez-
    Rivera, 800 F.3d at 11 n.1 (taking a similar tack).
    - 6 -
    Cruz-Ramos had moved earlier to suppress the same evidence taken
    during the same search. And Judge Smith gave him a split decision,
    suppressing (for reasons not relevant here) some items (rifles)
    but not others (handguns and drugs).               Convinced that he had
    "standing" to challenge the search as an "overnight guest" of Cruz-
    Ramos, Astacio-Espino asked Judge Fusté to suppress everything.6
    To   back   up   his   overnight-guest    claim,   Astacio-Espino   relied
    heavily on an untranslated Spanish-language declaration by Cruz-
    Ramos.      The next day, Judge Fusté entered an electronic order
    stating that he was "respecting Judge Smith's ruling on these
    issues" — though a day later he clarified that he would "not
    extend[]" his colleague's edict "to parties without standing" and
    that he would "decide the same in the context of trial."             When
    trial came, Judge Fusté ended up "respect[ing]" Judge Smith's
    order.     So Judge Fusté suppressed the rifles, but not the handguns
    or the drugs — though without explaining why he thought Astacio-
    Espino had standing, even though the government seemingly sought
    one.
    6
    Lawyers and judges occasionally use the word "standing" in
    search cases, not in the Article III sense but as a shorthand
    reference in discussing whether a defendant claiming a Fourth
    Amendment right has a personal interest that the search infringed
    (more on the personal-interest stuff in a moment).     See United
    States v. Bain, 
    874 F.3d 1
    , 13 (1st Cir. 2017); United States v.
    Kimball, 
    25 F.3d 1
    , 5 n.1 (1st Cir. 1994).
    - 7 -
    Arguments and Analysis
    Seeking to undo what Judge Fusté did, Astacio-Espino
    pins his hopes on a straightforward theory.                  Fairly recently, he
    notes, a panel of this court partially reversed Judge Smith's
    suppression ruling in Cruz-Ramos's case.               See Ramírez-Rivera, 800
    F.3d at 27-33 (holding that the police lacked probable cause for
    the   search    and     that    neither       the    good-faith   exception    to
    exclusionary     rule    nor    the    harmless-error        doctrine   applied).
    Proclaiming     himself    "an     overnight         guest   at   [Cruz-Ramos's]
    residence," he insists we should reverse Judge Fusté's suppression
    decision too, since Judge Fusté simply adopted Judge Smith's now-
    discredited ruling.            Not to be outmaneuvered, the government
    identifies     three    supposed      bases    for   affirming    Judge   Fusté's
    ruling:   Astacio-Espino's failure to argue in his opening brief
    that he had a legitimate expectation of privacy sufficient to show
    standing to contest the search; Astacio-Espino's reliance on the
    untranslated Spanish-language document to establish his status as
    an overnight guest at Cruz-Ramos's house; and the harmlessness of
    any error (if error there was) on Judge Fusté's part, given the
    overwhelming evidence of Astacio-Espino's guilt.
    Reviewing the issue afresh ("de novo," in law-speak),
    see United States v. Orth, 
    873 F.3d 349
    , 353 (1st Cir. 2017) —
    knowing too that we can affirm on any basis supported by the
    - 8 -
    record, see United States v. Arnott, 
    758 F.3d 40
    , 43 (1st Cir.
    2014) — we think the government has the better of the argument.
    Fourth Amendment rights are personal ones.              See, e.g.,
    Rakas v. Illinois, 
    439 U.S. 128
    , 133 (1978).                     So a criminal
    defendant wishing to challenge a search must prove that he had "a
    legitimate expectation of privacy" in the searched area, 
    id.
     at
    143 — i.e., he must show that he "exhibited an actual, subjective,
    expectation of privacy" and that this "subjective expectation is
    one    that    society    is   prepared   to     recognize   as       objectively
    reasonable," United States v. Rheault, 
    561 F.3d 55
    , 59 (1st Cir.
    2009); see also United States v. Werra, 
    638 F.3d 326
    , 331 (1st
    Cir.   2011).      An    overnight   guest     generally   has    a   reasonable
    expectation of privacy in his host's home.                 See, e.g., United
    States v. Almonte-Báez, 
    857 F.3d 27
    , 32 n.4 (1st Cir. 2017) (citing
    Minnesota v. Olson, 
    495 U.S. 91
    , 96-97 (1990)).              The problem for
    Astacio-Espino is that he supported his overnight-guest claim with
    a Spanish-only declaration — a problem, because judges cannot
    consider untranslated documents.             See, e.g., United States v.
    Quiñones-Otero, 
    869 F.3d 49
    , 53 (1st Cir. 2017) (citing the Jones
    Act, 
    48 U.S.C. § 864
    ; González-de-Blasini v. Family Dep't, 
    377 F.3d 81
    , 88 (1st Cir. 2004); and Dávila v. Corporación de Puerto
    - 9 -
    Rico Para La Difusión Pública, 
    498 F.3d 9
    , 13 (1st Cir. 2007)).7
    And this evidentiary gap devastates his suppression argument,
    because "a failure to present evidence" on the "reasonable privacy"
    front "prevents a defendant from making a claim for suppression
    under the Fourth Amendment."    See United States v. Samboy, 
    433 F.3d 154
    , 161-62 (1st Cir. 2005).8
    Anonymous-Jury Claim
    Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo
    criticize the judge for empaneling an anonymous jury.     But they
    concede that Ramírez-Rivera — a decision disposing of appeals
    brought by some of their coindictees — forecloses their argument,
    and they raise the point only to preserve the issue "for future
    consideration."   Enough said about that, then.
    Partial-Courtroom-Closure Claim
    Background
    While their appeals were pending, Astacio-Espino, Lanza-
    Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo jointly moved the district judge
    7 Astacio-Espino says in his reply brief that materials he
    has not given us — FBI interview memos (known as "302" reports)
    and the statement of facts in Cruz-Ramos's plea agreement — confirm
    he stayed over Cruz-Ramos's house several times. This does not
    help him, however, because an appellant waives any argument not
    made in his "opening brief but raised only in [his] reply brief."
    Lawless v. Steward Health Care Sys., LLC, 
    894 F.3d 9
    , 25 (1st Cir.
    2018).
    8 We thus need not address the government's other arguments
    for affirming the judge's suppression ruling.
    - 10 -
    to supplement the record on appeal, arguing that a post-trial
    investigation by counsel revealed that "official personnel" had
    kept some of appellants' friends and family from attending jury
    selection.     See Fed. R. App. P. 10(e)(2); see also United States
    v. Pagán-Ferrer, 
    736 F.3d 573
    , 581-84 (1st Cir. 2013) (discussing
    Fed. R. App. 10(e)).      And they asked the judge to hold a hearing
    and make findings of fact on the matter.
    After some procedural wrangling not relevant here, the
    judge decided to hold an evidentiary hearing.         Pertinently for our
    purposes,    appellants   called   six   witnesses:     Astacio-Espino's
    mother   (Francisca    Espino);    Lanza-Vázquez's    former   girlfriend
    (Betzaida Caballero-Ortiz); Rivera-Carrasquillo's father (Héctor
    Rivera-Rosa), mother (Maribel Carrasquillo), and trial counsel
    (José    Aguayo);   and   Lanza-Vázquez's     and   Rivera-Carrasquillo's
    friend (Juan Carlos Ramos-Piñeiro).         The government, for its part,
    called two witnesses:       a former court security officer (Héctor
    Villavicencio) and a courtroom deputy clerk (Ana Romero), both of
    whom had been assigned to the courtroom for jury selection in
    appellants' case.
    Reduced to bare essence, appellants' witnesses testified
    that when the courtroom opened around 9:00 a.m., a man stationed
    at the door — thought by some to be a United States marshal — said
    that only one family member per defendant could go in (Lanza-
    - 11 -
    Vázquez's ex-girlfriend testified that the man told her only
    potential jurors could go in).      No prospective jurors were in the
    courtroom when this happened.       And none of the witnesses could
    give a good physical description of the man.
    As for the government's witnesses, the court security
    officer pertinently testified that he got to the courtroom at 9:00
    a.m. on the day of jury selection, opened the doors, and did not
    stop anyone from coming in.     Asked whether he "at any time [told]
    anyone that they could not come in," he replied "no."            He added
    that the judge handling jury selection (Judge Fusté) had always
    instructed him to let the public in.        He also noted that he only
    left the door when he had to hand prospective jurors papers or a
    microphone    (potential   jurors   used   the   mic   in   responding   to
    questions asked during voir dire — a process that allows counsel
    and the judge to see if there are grounds to challenge a possible
    juror, for example). And the courtroom deputy relevantly testified
    that once the judge excused a potential juror, the excused person
    would leave through the courtroom's front door.             She also said
    that she saw members of the public sitting in benches reserved for
    them.   And asked whether "it ever appear[ed]" that the benches
    were "so full that no one else could be there," she answered "no."
    In a post-hearing rescript, the judge found that each of
    the "family/friend witnesses had much to gain by alleging that
    - 12 -
    they were prevented from entering the courtroom," given how their
    loved ones faced spending the rest of their lives behind bars.
    Noting that two years had passed before the witnesses alleged a
    man had restricted access to the courtroom and that none of them
    could give a physical description of the man, the judge found it
    "difficult to consider their testimony credible."    But the judge
    had no difficulty crediting the court security officer's testimony
    about opening the courtroom around 9 a.m. and not stopping anyone
    from entering.   And "[h]aving been present during jury voir dire,"
    which put him "in the best position to determine the credibility"
    of the testifying witnesses, the judge found "that the courtroom
    was not closed, neither partially nor fully and neither expressly
    nor impliedly, during the jury voir dire" in this case.
    Arguments and Analysis
    Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo
    believe the record shows that a partial courtroom closure occurred,
    which, they continue, violated two constitutional provisions:
    Article III, by delegating the closure decision to a non-judicial
    officer; and the Sixth Amendment, by depriving them of their right
    to a public trial.    The government's principal response is that
    the judge committed no clear error in finding no courtroom closure
    here.   We side with the government.
    - 13 -
    Appellants and the government — who agree on little else
    — agree that we must give clear-error review to the judge's no-
    courtroom-closure finding and plain-error review to appellants'
    unpreserved legal arguments.    See United States v. Negrón-Sostre,
    
    790 F.3d 295
    , 301 (1st Cir. 2015) (applying those standards in a
    similar   situation).   We   begin   and   end   with   the   judge's   no-
    courtroom-closure finding, knowing that winning a clear-error
    challenge is no easy thing because the challenger must show that
    the contested finding stinks like "a 5 week old, unrefrigerated,
    dead fish."   See Toye v. O'Donnell (In re O'Donnell), 
    728 F.3d 41
    ,
    46 (1st Cir. 2013) (quoting S Indus., Inc. v. Centra 2000, Inc.,
    
    249 F.3d 625
    , 627 (7th Cir. 2001)).         Put less colorfully, the
    challenger must do more than show that the finding is "probably
    wrong," for we can reverse on clear-error grounds only if — after
    whole-record review — we have "a strong, unyielding belief" that
    the judge stumbled.     See 
    id.
     (emphasis added) (quoting Islamic
    Inv. Co. of the Gulf (Bah.) Ltd. v. Harper (In re Grand Jury
    Investigation), 
    545 F.3d 21
    , 24 (1st Cir. 2008)).
    Appellants' clear-error argument turns entirely on their
    claim that the judge should have believed their witnesses over the
    government's.   As an example, they contend that the "demeanor" of
    their witnesses "was thoughtful and unemotional."        And they insist
    that the testimony of the government's witnesses "did not refute
    - 14 -
    the   family    members'   consistent   testimony"   that   a   "courtroom
    official" told them "that only one member of each defendant's
    family could enter the courtroom for jury selection." By basically
    focusing   on   the   witnesses'   credibility,   they   make   their   job
    "particularly" challenging, because — unlike us — the judge heard
    the witnesses from both sides and eyed their manner.            See United
    States v. Guzmán-Batista, 
    783 F.3d 930
    , 937 (1st Cir. 2015).            If,
    as here, a judge's finding is based on witness credibility, that
    finding, "if not internally inconsistent, can virtually never be
    clear error."     See Anderson v. City of Bessemer, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 575
    (1985) (emphasis added).       And we see nothing "[in]coherent and
    facially [im]plausible" about the government witnesses' account.
    See 
    id.
    Still trying to turn defeat into victory, appellants
    protest that the testimony of the government's witnesses "left
    open the distinct possibility that it was a [deputy United States
    marshal] inside the courtroom and near the courtroom door who told
    the defense witnesses exactly what they said they were told when
    they tried to enter."      Here is the problem with that theory.        The
    defense's witnesses testified that an official-looking man told
    them about the one-family-member-per-defendant policy when the
    courtroom doors opened at 9:00 a.m., when no prospective jurors
    were there.     During that key period — between the opening of the
    - 15 -
    doors and the seating of potential jurors — the only person manning
    the door was the court security officer, who said he stopped no
    one from going in.        Or so the court security officer testified,
    which the judge was entitled to credit.               And under clear-error
    review, "[a] finding that is 'plausible' in light of the full
    record — even if another is equally or more so — must govern."
    Cooper v. Harris, 
    137 S. Ct. 1455
    , 1465 (2017) (emphasis added).
    So we are in no position to disturb the judge's no-
    courtroom-closure finding — a conclusion that defeats appellants'
    challenge   and   makes    it   unnecessary     to    consider      the    parties'
    remaining arguments on this front.
    Berating-Counsel Claim
    Echoing an unsuccessful mistrial motion filed below,
    Astacio-Espino,    Lanza-Vázquez,       and    Rivera-Carasquillo          complain
    that the judge berated counsel in front of the jury, diminishing
    the jury's respect for the defense's work.               Lanza-Vázquez's and
    Rivera-Carasquillo's immediate problem is that while Astacio-
    Espino's    counsel   made      the    mistrial      motion,       their    counsel
    specifically chose not to join that motion — thus waiving appellate
    consideration of their argument.           See generally United States v.
    Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 733 (1993) (noting that "waiver is the
    intentional   relinquishment      or     abandonment    of     a    known    right"
    (quoting Johnson v. Zerbst, 
    304 U.S. 458
    , 464 (1938))).
    - 16 -
    And even if we were willing to overlook this waiver
    (which we are not), they and Astacio-Espino spotlight no specific
    instances where the judge dressed counsel down.           As the government
    notes, our appellants simply claim that the judge instructed the
    jurors that "if you have noticed that I have become upset about
    something with either side or somebody, do not [hold] it against
    that person, lawyer or party."          Context is everything, of course.
    And because appellants do not say what the allegedly biased
    comments were, we cannot assess whether he acted defensibly,
    without judicial bias.       See United States v. Rodríguez-Rivera, 
    473 F.3d 21
    , 28 (1st Cir. 2007) (discussing how we go about evaluating
    a claim of judicial bias).       Knowing that it is not our job to do
    the parties' homework for them, we find the argument waived.                 See
    United States v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990) (noting
    that "[i]t is not enough" for parties "merely to mention a possible
    argument   in   the   most   skeletal    way,   leaving   the   court   to   do
    counsel's work," and emphasizing "that issues adverted to in a
    perfunctory manner, unaccompanied by some effort at developed
    argumentation, are deemed waived").
    - 17 -
    Intervening-with-Witnesses Claim
    Background
    Appellants     also    accuse    the   judge   of    improperly
    questioning the witnesses.       Here is what you need to know about
    that claim.
    Testifying about the erase-the-face episode (the one we
    mentioned above), a cooperating witness said that the victim begged
    his tormentors not to "remove" his face.         "Erase his face," the
    judge stated. "Erase his face," the witness said. The cooperating
    witness also noted that before he and his cohorts stomped the
    victim to death, one of them "removed the bullets" from a "magnum"
    and "put the magnum to [the victim's] head." "Pulled the trigger,"
    the judge said.   "Pulled the trigger," the witness responded.        "As
    if he was going to kill him," the judge added.       "I think I already
    said that," the witness said, "[b]ut as if he was going to kill
    him."   Shifting to a different murder, the cooperating witness
    explained how, after the victim got shot and fell to the ground,
    one of the shooters "emptied his gun at [the victim]."            "At his
    face," said the judge.    "At his face," said the witness.
    A former homicide detective testified about seeing a
    body at a crime scene that "no longer had a face."            A couple of
    questions later, the prosecutor asked, "And you mentioned that
    this individual . . . did not have face?" — to which defense
    - 18 -
    counsel objected on asked-and-answered grounds.             "Well," the judge
    said, "I understood he had no head.            But it's no face, no head?
    Tell us."   "It had no face of any kind," the witness replied.
    Later   still,     an   agent   with   the   Bureau   of   Alcohol,
    Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (commonly referred to just as
    "ATF") testified "as an interstate nexus specialist" (FYI, some
    statutes have an interstate-nexus requirement, which gives rise to
    federal jurisdiction under the Constitution).            As the agent talked
    about different firearms — Glock pistols, Smith and Wesson pistols,
    a Bushmaster rifle, etc. — the prosecutor asked each time if any
    were manufactured in Puerto Rico. The agent always said no, adding
    one time that "[i]f they were possessed in Puerto Rico, they
    traveled in or [a]ffect[ed] interstate commerce."             Asked about "an
    AR-15 type rifle," the agent testified that the rifle had no
    manufacturer's mark and so he could not determine the rifle's
    "place of origin."       Speaking up, the judge questioned him about
    whether "we manufacture any kind of gun in Puerto Rico."                   "No,
    sir," said the agent.      "So what does that mean in terms of nexus?"
    the judge wondered.      Because "this firearm was not manufactured in
    Puerto Rico," the agent replied, "if it was possessed in Puerto
    Rico, it traveled in or [a]ffect[ed] interstate commerce."
    Early   in   the   afternoon,     after   the   agent   testified,
    Astacio-Espino's lawyer asked for a mistrial because the judge
    - 19 -
    "ha[d] intervened with a great number of witnesses."             Lanza-
    Vázquez's and Rivera-Carasquillo's counsel joined the request.
    But the judge denied the motion, simply saying that "you will have
    to take" this issue "to the Court of Appeals."
    Arguments and Analysis
    Pointing   to   these   incidents,   Astacio-Espino,   Lanza-
    Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo claim that the judge denied them
    a fair trial by asking questions or making comments that emphasized
    the brutality of the charged crimes and that helped the government
    establish a nexus between the guns and interstate commerce.9        The
    government argues that because the judge's interjections simply
    clarified the record or kept the lengthy proceedings on track (the
    trial involved nine days of testimony), his actions crossed no
    line — and even if they did, any error was harmless, given the
    considerable evidence of appellants' guilt.      Because we agree with
    the government's first point, we need not address its second.
    We review the judge's denial of a mistrial motion for
    abuse of discretion, which occurs if no reasonable person could
    9 Appellants call the discussed interjections only a "partial
    sample" of the "most egregious" ones. But by only mentioning those
    interjections in their opening briefs, they waived any argument
    that other interjections prejudiced them. See, e.g., Rodríguez v.
    Municipality of San Juan, 
    659 F.3d 168
    , 175 (1st Cir. 2011).
    - 20 -
    agree with the ruling.10     See United States v. Munyenyezi, 
    781 F.3d 532
    , 541 (1st Cir. 2015).       Deference is appropriate here because
    the judge was best positioned to decide if what happened was
    serious enough to justify declaring a mistrial — a "drastic
    remed[y]" of last resort.      See id. at 541-42.
    Trial    judges    have   considerable     leeway        over   the
    interrogation of witnesses and the order of proof — leeway they
    must use to (among other things) elicit truth and avoid delay.
    See, e.g., Morales Feliciano v. Rullán, 
    378 F.3d 42
    , 57 (1st Cir.
    2004); Fed. R. Evid. 611(a). So, for example, judges can "question
    witnesses"; "analyze, dissect, explain, summarize, and comment on
    the    evidence";    and     otherwise     extract   facts     to     clarify
    misunderstandings.    Logue v. Dore, 
    103 F.3d 1040
    , 1045 (1st Cir.
    1997); see also United States v. Ayala-Vazquez, 
    751 F.3d 1
    , 24
    (1st Cir. 2014); United States v. Paz Uribe, 
    891 F.2d 396
    , 400
    (1st Cir. 1989).      And because protracted trials drain scarce
    judicial resources (judge and jury time, to name just two), judges
    must keep the proceedings moving — by, for instance, making sure
    evidence presentation does not become rambling and repetitive (to
    state the obvious, district courts have heavy caseloads and jurors
    10The parties concur that appellants preserved the issue for
    us.   And we have no reason to doubt them.
    - 21 -
    have family and work obligations).           See, e.g., Logue, 
    103 F.3d at 1045
    .
    Make    no     mistake,    however.           While   "[t]he   ultimate
    responsibility for the effective working of the adversary system
    rests with . . . judge[s]," see Fed. R. Evid. 611(a) advisory
    committee's note to 1972 proposed amendment, their powers are not
    boundless — for they "cannot become . . . advocate[s] or otherwise
    use [their] judicial powers to advantage or disadvantage a party
    unfairly," see Logue, 
    103 F.3d at 1045
     (1st Cir. 1997) (emphasis
    added); see also Morales Feliciano, 
    378 F.3d at 57
    . But to prevail
    on an inappropriate-judicial-intervention claim, the protesting
    party must show both "improper" conduct and "serious prejudice."
    See United States v. DeCologero, 
    530 F.3d 36
    , 56 (1st Cir. 2008).
    Silhouetted      against       these    rules,    appellants'     claim
    cannot succeed.    Take the face-related episodes (e.g., the "erase
    the face," "at his face," and "pulled the trigger" interactions).
    What appellants characterize as out-of-bounds questioning we see
    as the fulfillment of the judge's "duty" to "elicit[] facts he
    deem[ed] necessary" to clarify the record for the jury.                  See Paz
    Uribe, 891 F.2d at 400 (quoting Llach v. United States, 
    739 F.2d 1322
    , 1329 (8th Cir. 1984)).             Now consider the location-of-gun-
    manufacturers    questions.         As    the    government     notes    (without
    contradiction     from     appellants),         "that     the    firearms    were
    - 22 -
    manufactured outside of Puerto Rico was not a hotly contested
    issue."   And we see the incident as a permissible bid by the judge
    to speed up the multiday trial's pace. See United States v. Henry,
    
    136 F.3d 12
    , 19 (1st Cir. 1998) (discussing the "judge's right and
    responsibility to manage the progress of the trial").     On top of
    everything, the judge told the jurors "not [to] assume that I hold
    any opinion on any matter that pertains to any question that I may
    have asked."    He also told them that they could "disregard all
    questions that I made during the course of this trial." "You don't
    have to go by my comments," he added.   "I am not here to lead you."
    And these instructions sufficed to alleviate any risk of prejudice.
    See Logue, 
    103 F.3d at 1046-47
    .11
    11 Two more matters and we are done with this issue. About
    five months before our appellants' trial, the judge, in sentencing
    a separately tried codefendant, mentioned the "Pep Boys" murder —
    a murder that involved the death of a La Rompe boss, killed on the
    orders of two La ONU leaders. See Ramírez-Rivera, 800 F.3d at 44
    (discussing the "Pep Boys" murder). And the judge said how deeply
    that crime had affected him. Appellants theorize that the judge's
    "feelings" fueled his "improper questioning and interjecting" at
    their later trial. They also cry foul that the judge questioned
    the cooperating witness even though (emphases theirs) "he himself
    took the witness'[s] guilty plea so the witness could cooperate in
    the first place." But they did not raise either argument below.
    And they give us no reason to conclude that any of the "narrowly
    configured and sparingly dispensed" exceptions to the raise-or-
    waive rule apply. See Daigle v. Me. Med. Ctr., Inc., 
    14 F.3d 684
    ,
    688 (1st Cir. 1994).     Nothing more need be said about these
    arguments.
    - 23 -
    The short of it is that we will reverse a mistrial denial
    only    in   "extremely     compelling      circumstances."           See,    e.g.,
    Munyenyezi, 781 F.3d at 542 (quoting United States v. Pierro, 
    32 F.3d 611
    , 617 (1st Cir. 1994)).           But they have not shown that the
    circumstances here meet that standard.               So the judge's mistrial
    denial stands.
    Admission-of-Photos Claim
    Repeating a losing argument made below, Astacio-Espino,
    Lanza-Vázquez,     and    Rivera-Carasquillo         fault     the    judge       for
    admitting 61 color autopsy and crime-scene photos (some showing
    murder victims without a face or head, others showing blood or
    brain   matter   splattered      everywhere)    and    43    color    gun    photos
    (depicting firearms Rivera-Carasquillo had at the time of his
    arrest), along with actual guns, gun parts, and ammo.                 As they see
    it, the gruesomeness of the autopsy and crime-scene photos had to
    have    overwhelmed   the    jurors'      emotions    and    led   them      to   act
    irrationally. So they believe the judge should have excluded those
    photos under Evidence Rule 403, which says a judge may keep out
    "relevant     evidence"     if   its     potential    for    unfair     prejudice
    "substantially outweigh[s]" its probative worth. See Fed. R. Evid.
    403.    Repeating another losing argument made below, they also
    insist that law enforcement seized the at-issue guns after the
    conspiracy had ended. And so they further believe the judge should
    - 24 -
    have excluded those photos — introduced, the theory goes, to
    portray them as bad men, and hence guilty of the crimes charged —
    under Evidence Rule 403 and Evidence Rule 404(b), which prohibits
    evidence of a "crime, wrong, or other act" from being used "to
    prove a person's character in order to show that on a particular
    occasion the person acted in accordance with the character."                 See
    Fed. R. Evid. 404(b).
    The   government,      contrastingly,    contends     no        error
    occurred. Noting that we will reverse a judge's Rule 403 probative
    value/unfair      prejudice      balancing   only    in    extraordinarily
    compelling situations, the government argues that the autopsy and
    crime-scene photos did not unfairly prejudice appellants because,
    for example, the photos "corroborated actions taken by La ONU
    members,    including     [appellants]."12     And    according        to    the
    government, rather than being inadmissible as unduly prejudicial
    under Rule 403 or as improper character evidence under Rule 404(b),
    the   gun   evidence    showed   Rivera-Carasquillo's     role   as    a    gun-
    supplier to La ONU and how he continued to store guns even after
    the indictment came down. The government claims too that "La ONU's
    activities were ongoing even after" the indictment's "issuance,"
    12The government asserts, without contradiction, that its
    "case-in-chief" covered "eight crime scenes involv[ing] twelve
    murders."
    - 25 -
    at which time Rivera-Carasquillo was a fugitive without having
    withdrawn from the conspiracy.             As a fallback, the government
    argues that whatever conceivable error might have occurred was
    harmless.
    Recognizing    that     "[t]he    simplest   way    to   decide   [an
    issue] is often the best," Stor/Gard, Inc. v. Strathmore Ins. Co.,
    
    717 F.3d 242
    , 248 (1st Cir. 2013) (quoting Chambers v. Bowersox,
    
    157 F.3d 560
    , 564 n.4 (8th Cir. 1998)), we assume without deciding
    that errors occurred.      But we deem them harmless nevertheless.
    Nonconstitutional errors are harmless — and so do not
    require a new trial (saving the public the costs and delays caused
    by a retrial when the outcome would not change) — if we "can say
    'with fair assurance, after pondering all that happened without
    stripping the erroneous action from the whole,'" that the errors
    did not "'substantially sway[]'" the jury's verdict. United States
    v. Melvin, 
    730 F.3d 29
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2013) (quoting United States
    v. Sasso, 
    695 F.3d 25
    , 29 (1st Cir. 2012)).              The government bears
    the burden of proving harmlessness.            See, e.g., United States v.
    Vázquez,    
    724 F.3d 15
    ,   25   (1st   Cir.   2013).       Now   recall   how
    cooperating witnesses pegged Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and
    Rivera-Carasquillo as La ONU drug-point owners and enforcers —
    each of whom, according to these witnesses, participated in the
    gun murders of others, all in La ONU's name. True, the cooperators
    - 26 -
    had reasons to tailor their testimony to please the prosecution.
    But defense counsel brought this out during cross-examination and
    closing arguments.          The judge also told the jury that it should
    consider the cooperators' testimony "with particular caution" and
    with an eye toward whether they "had a reason to make up stories
    or to exaggerate what others did because they wanted to help
    themselves."        Anyway, the jury could believe what the cooperators
    said.        See, e.g., United States v. Rodríguez-Soler, 
    773 F.3d 289
    ,
    297 (1st Cir. 2014).         And if the jury did, it could enter guilty
    verdicts       —   as   Astacio-Espino's   counsel   candidly   acknowledged
    during summation.13 So, bluntly stated, even if the judge gaffed
    by admitting the crime-scene and gun evidence — and we whisper no
    hint of suggestion about whether he did — appellants cannot prevail
    because, given the contours of this case, we can fairly say that
    13
    A quick side note.    When an error is of constitutional
    magnitude, we cannot consider it harmless if the rest of the
    government's case against the defendant (or defendants) rests
    solely on cooperator testimony. See, e.g., United States v. Ofray-
    Campos, 
    534 F.3d 1
    , 27 (1st Cir. 2008). Appellants do not claim
    that the error they identify here is of the constitutional variety.
    And they make no argument that the Ofray-Campos rule (for lack of
    a better label) applies in a nonconstitutional-error situation
    like theirs. Perhaps that is because Rodríguez-Soler is on the
    books, a case where we held a nonconstitutional error harmless
    based on "the cooperating witnesses' testimony," see 773 F.3d at
    297 — though, to be fair, there's no indication in Rodríguez-Soler
    that the defendant argued for the application of the Ofray-Campos
    rule. Ultimately, by not pushing for application of the Ofray-
    Campos rule here, appellants waived any argument on that front
    that they might have had. See, e.g., Rodríguez, 
    659 F.3d at 175
    .
    - 27 -
    any error (if error there be) did not "substantially sway" the
    jury's verdict.
    Jury-Instruction Claim
    Background
    A necessary element for a RICO-conspiracy conviction is
    that "the defendant agree[d] to commit or actually commit[ted] two
    or more acts of racketeering activity."    United States v. Shifman,
    
    124 F.3d 31
    , 38 (1st Cir. 1997); see also 
    id. at 35
     (discussing
    the other elements).   "Racketeering activity" includes "any act or
    threat involving" particular federal or state crimes like, for
    example,   drug   trafficking,   murder,   extortion,   robbery,   and
    kidnapping.   See 
    18 U.S.C. § 1961
    (1)(A).       "[T]he commission of
    firearms offenses" appears nowhere on that list, however.          See
    United States v. Latorre-Cacho, 
    874 F.3d 299
    , 301 (1st Cir. 2017).
    Instructing the jury on the racketeering-activity issue,
    the judge in our case said "that as a matter of law, drug
    trafficking and murder both qualify as racketeering activities."
    So far, so good. A little later, though, the judge added (emphasis
    ours) that "the types of racketeering activity alleged include
    possession with intent to distribute narcotics, firearms[,] and
    murder."   Later still, the judge instructed (emphasis added) that
    to convict the defendant of the RICO conspiracy offense,
    your verdict must be unanimous as to which types of
    predicate racketeering activities the defendant agreed
    would be committed. For example, at least two acts of
    - 28 -
    drug trafficking, murder, or any combination of both. I
    would add two acts of drug trafficking, firearms,
    murders[,] or a combination thereof.
    The   judge    then   noted    that   "[t]he     [i]ndictment     accuses    the
    defendants     of   two   different   types    of    racketeering    activity,"
    namely, "drug trafficking and murder."           The judge returned to that
    theme,     saying   "racketeering     activity      . .   .   includ[es]    drug
    trafficking, murder[,] or any combination thereof" and that "[t]he
    indictment alleges that the enterprise, through its members and
    associates, engaged in racketeering activities consisting of drug
    trafficking and murder."
    Arguments and Analysis
    Astacio-Espino    and   Rivera-Carasquillo         —   the    only
    appellants charged with RICO conspiracy (Lanza-Vázquez was not so
    charged) — assert that the judge plainly erred by twice telling
    the jury that a firearms crime is a racketeering activity for RICO-
    conspiracy purposes (plain error is the standard for all arguments,
    like this one, debuted on appeal).14                Simplifying matters, the
    14Most readers of our prior opinions know the plain-error
    standard by heart, but a little refresher never hurts. A super
    hard standard to establish, plain error has four prongs.      See,
    e.g., Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 135 (2009); United
    States v. Shoup, 
    476 F.3d 38
    , 42-43 (1st Cir. 2007); United States
    v. González-Vélez, 
    466 F.3d 27
    , 35 (1st Cir. 2006).         First,
    complaining parties must identify an "error" that they have not
    "intentionally relinquished or abandoned." Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 135
    . Second, they must show that the error was "clear or obvious,
    rather than subject to reasonable dispute." 
    Id.
     Third, they must
    prove that the error "affected" their "substantial rights" — i.e.,
    - 29 -
    government admits that, given Latorre-Cacho, the judge did err,
    and    clearly    so     —      satisfying     Astacio-Espino's           and     Rivera-
    Carasquillo's burden under the first and second prongs of the
    plain-error test.         The real battle then is over whether Astacio-
    Espino and Rivera-Carasquillo can meet the third and fourth prongs.
    They say they can, making the dual argument that the misinstruction
    prejudiced them, because it likely affected the case's outcome —
    fulfilling      their     burden      under     prong      three;     and       that   the
    misinstruction         worked    a   miscarriage      of    justice,      because      the
    government       did     not     present      overwhelming          and     essentially
    uncontroverted evidence on the racketeering-activity element —
    fulfilling      their    burden      under    prong   four.        The    government's
    response is dual too:            the instructions as a whole were unlikely
    to    mislead    the    jury,     seeing     how   the     judge    emphasized         drug
    trafficking and murder as cognizable predicates; and even if the
    that "it likely affected" the case's outcome. United States v.
    Almonte-Nuñez, 
    771 F.3d 84
    , 89 (1st Cir. 2014).         Fourth and
    finally, if they satisfy these prongs they must show that the error
    "seriously affect[s] the fairness, integrity, or public reputation
    of judicial proceedings," which is also known as the miscarriage-
    of-justice prong — then (and only then) will we exercise our
    "discretion to remedy the error." See Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 135
    (internal quotation marks omitted); United States v. Saxena, 
    229 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st Cir. 2000).      And "[g]iven the rigors of this
    standard, [our] power to set aside trial court decisions due to
    plain error 'should be employed sparingly.'"      United States v.
    Bramley, 
    847 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st Cir. 2017) (quoting United States v.
    Padilla, 
    415 F.3d 211
    , 221 (1st Cir. 2005) (en banc)).
    - 30 -
    instructions   likely   misled   the   jury,    there   is   no   reasonable
    probability that the flawed instructions led to flawed convictions
    — so they cannot show either prejudice or a miscarriage of justice.
    As for our views on the matter, we know "the plain error
    hurdle, high in all events, nowhere looms larger than in the
    context of alleged instructional errors."          See United States v.
    Paniagua-Ramos, 
    251 F.3d 242
    , 246 (1st Cir. 2001).                 And ever
    mindful of this demanding standard, we cannot help but reject
    Astacio-Espino and Rivera-Carasquillo's claim.
    The jury had no special verdict form on the RICO-
    conspiracy count.   But the jury found Astacio-Espino guilty of six
    predicate RICO acts:     drug trafficking, VICAR attempted murder,
    and four VICAR murders.     The jury also found Rivera-Carasquillo
    guilty of four predicate RICO acts:        drug trafficking and three
    VICAR murders.   And significantly for this case, Astacio-Espino
    and Rivera-Carasquillo fail to adequately challenge the evidence
    behind these convictions (through citation to trial testimony and
    supporting legal authority, for example).          So they have not met
    their heavy burden of showing that the trial's outcome would likely
    have changed had the judge not erred.          After all, "[w]here" — as
    here — "the effect of an alleged error is so uncertain, a [party]
    cannot meet his burden of showing that the error actually affected
    his substantial rights."     See Jones v. United States, 527 U.S.
    - 31 -
    373,   394-95   (1999).      And   because    Astacio-Espino    and    Rivera-
    Carasquillo have not shown a likelihood that they were "worse off"
    because of the judge's mistake, they "perforce" cannot show that
    a miscarriage of justice will result if we do not correct the
    mistake.    See United States v. Turbides-Leonardo, 
    468 F.3d 34
    , 40
    (1st Cir. 2006).
    Latorre-Cacho does not help Astacio-Espino and Rivera-
    Carasquillo's    prejudice     and     miscarriage-of-justice     positions,
    despite what they say.       A grand jury there indicted Jose Latorre-
    Cacho for conspiracy to violate RICO, conspiracy to engage in drug
    trafficking, and conspiracy to possess a firearm in furtherance of
    a drug-trafficking crime. 874 F.3d at 301. At trial, the district
    judge (the same judge who presided over our appellants' trial)
    "twice incorrectly" told the jury that "'firearms' constitutes
    'racketeering activity.'"        Id.   After the jury convicted him only
    on   the   RICO-conspiracy    charge,    Latorre-Cacho      appealed   to   us,
    complaining     (as   relevant       here)    about   the    judge's   faulty
    instructions, id. — the theory being that the incorrect charge let
    the jury find him guilty of RICO conspiracy "on a legally invalid
    theory of what constitutes 'racketeering activity' by defining
    'racketeering activity' to include 'firearms,'" id. at 302-03.
    The government seemingly conceded that the judge erred and plainly
    so, leaving us to decide whether Latorre-Cacho met the remaining
    - 32 -
    prongs of the plain-error standard.     See id. at 303.    In finding
    that Latorre-Cacho satisfied prong three, we could not say that
    the evidence of the proper predicates — drug trafficking, robbery,
    and carjacking — was overwhelming and essentially uncontroverted.
    Id. at 306, 311.   Indeed, the jury actually acquitted him on the
    drug-trafficking-conspiracy charge.     Id. at 301, 311.   And having
    found that prong satisfied, we "[could] not see how" plain error's
    "fourth prong" prevented him from "demonstrating plain error" —
    especially since the government did not make any developed argument
    that he failed to satisfy that prong.    Id. at 311.   All of this is
    worlds apart from our case, however — most notably because the
    jury convicted Astacio-Espino and Rivera-Carasquillo on related
    drug-conspiracy and VICAR counts and because the government did
    not waive its right to contest a plain-error finding.15
    On to the next claim, then.
    15 Noting that the VICAR statute also has a racketeering-
    activity component, Astacio-Espino and Rivera-Carasquillo make a
    one-sentence argument that we should vacate their VICAR
    convictions because the judge's "instructions on this element of
    VICAR, which followed his instructions on RICO conspiracy, were at
    best confusing and allowed the jury to find that 'firearms'
    offenses were the crimes that constituted the racketeering
    activity."   But they do not tie this unpreserved VICAR-centric
    argument to the demanding plain-error standard and thus have waived
    it. See United States v. Ponzo, 
    853 F.3d 558
    , 574 (1st Cir. 2017).
    - 33 -
    New-Trial Claim
    Background
    During appellants' trial, the jury heard from three
    cooperating coconspirators — ex-La ONU members Wesley Figueroa-
    Cancel, José Gutiérrez-Santana, and Christian Figueroa-Viera —
    about the roles appellants played in the killing of Pekeke, a La
    Rompe leader gunned down (according to the cooperators) by La ONU
    in its brutal war with La Rompe.       And Figueroa-Cancel, Gutiérrez-
    Santana, and Figueroa-Viera knew of which they spoke, since they
    had a hand in Pekeke's death.
    While here on appeal, appellants filed in the district
    court what they styled a motion for new trial based on newly-
    discovered evidence and government nondisclosure of evidence in
    violation of Brady v. Maryland, 
    373 U.S. 83
     (1963).            See Fed. R.
    Crim. P. 33(b)(1).      They did not have the "newly discovered
    evidence," however.      Rather, their lawyers claimed that they
    learned that codefendants convicted in a jury trial before Judge
    Smith had moved for a new trial and that restricted-court filings
    in that case supposedly showed that "a cooperating witness [gave]
    a   contradictory   version    of"   Pekeke's   murder   "in   grand   jury
    testimony, an FBI 302[,] and trial transcripts" — contradictory,
    because the cooperator there had supposedly said that La Rompe
    - 34 -
    members (and them alone) had killed Pekeke.16                 If the government
    had "disclosed" that evidence before or during "their trial, there
    is a reasonable probability" that the trial's outcome "would have
    been different" — at least that is what our appellants' motion
    contended, citing United States v. Flores-Rivera, 
    787 F.3d 1
    , 15-
    16   (1st    Cir.    2015)      (noting    that   a    successful      Brady       claim
    "require[s]        only   that     the     defendant     show      a    'reasonable
    probability'       that   had    the    government     disclosed       the   evidence
    [before] trial, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different" (quoting United States v. González-González, 
    258 F.3d 16
    , 20 (1st Cir. 2001))).                And based on all this, appellants
    requested three things:            (1) access to the restricted filings;
    (2) an     order    directing     the     government    to   disclose        any   info
    "indicat[ing] that any murder or other incident described by"
    testifying witnesses "did not occur" as they had testified, "or
    otherwise casting doubt on the credibility or reliability of any
    of the witnesses and/or other evidence used against them"; and,
    16Appellants' codefendants in the Judge Smith presided-over
    trial were José Laureano-Salgado and Pedro Ramírez-Rivera.
    Figueroa-Cancel, Gutiérrez-Santana, and Figueroa-Viera testified
    for the prosecution in that case too.      Readers can find more
    details of what happened before Judge Smith in another opinion
    issued today, United States v. Laureano-Salgado, ___ F.3d ___ (1st
    Cir. 2019) [Nos. 17-1052, 1053] — where we affirmed the denial of
    that motion.    And going forward we will assume the readers'
    familiarity with that opinion.
    - 35 -
    finally, (3) a new trial.        They also contemporaneously moved the
    judge for an "indicative ruling" that their new-trial motion "based
    on newly discovered evidence of a potential Brady violation 'raises
    a substantial issue.'"       See Fed. R. Crim. P. 37.17
    Opposing the motions, the government first argued that
    it did not have the sought-after materials before or during
    appellants' trial.      The government next asserted that it gave
    appellants the materials after they filed their motion, thus
    mooting their request.       And the government then contended that the
    materials involved statements made by cooperating witnesses from
    La Rompe, none of whom were present when Pekeke got killed.
    Accusing   the    government   of   making   an   "incomplete"
    disclosure, appellants blasted prosecutors in their reply memo for
    17   As a leading treatise in the field explains:
    If a party moves for relief in the district court that
    the court has no power to grant because an appeal is
    pending, Rule 37(a) provides the district court with
    three options: it may (1) defer considering the motion;
    (2) deny the motion; or (3) state either that it would
    grant the motion if the court of appeals remands for
    that purpose or that the motion raises a substantial
    issue.   If the district court takes approach (3) and
    states that it would grant the motion or that the motion
    raises a substantial issue, Rule 37(b) requires the
    movant to notify the circuit clerk promptly. Then the
    movant can ask the court of appeals to remand to allow
    the district court to consider the motion.
    3 Charles Alan Wright et al., Federal Practice and Procedure:
    Criminal § 644.1 (4th ed. 2019) (footnotes, citations, and internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    - 36 -
    violating "Brady" — an accusation the government denied in its
    surreply memo.     They later stated in an "informative motion" that
    the   government       had   disclosed   additional    documents   containing
    "sometimes inconsistent accounts by witness Luis Yanyoré-Pizarro"
    concerning Pekeke's murder.          Focusing on an FBI interview memo,
    they wrote that Yanyoré-Pizarro's version "describe[d] — directly
    contrary to the government's account at [their] trial — why" a La
    Rompe leader had ordered Pekeke's murder, and how "this killing
    was not part of the [La] ONU-[La] Rompe 'war.'"
    The   judge     rejected    appellants'   Brady-based    theory,
    noting that nothing supports the notion that the government had
    the material before or during their trial and so Brady does not
    apply.   And then the judge dashed their new-trial hopes.            Quoting
    Flores-Rivera, 787 F.3d at 15 — which quoted González-González,
    
    258 F.3d at 20
    , which in turn quoted United States v. Wright, 
    625 F.2d 1017
    , 1019 (1st Cir. 1980) — the judge set out the standard
    for   granting     a    new-trial    motion   based    on   newly-discovered
    evidence, which requires that
    (1) the evidence was unknown or unavailable to the
    defendant at the time of trial; (2) failure to learn of
    the evidence was not due to lack of diligence by the
    defendant; (3) the evidence is material, and not merely
    cumulative or impeaching; and (4) it will probably
    result in an acquittal upon retrial of the defendant.
    This is known variously as the "Wright test" or the "Wright
    standard."     See United States v. Martínez-Mercado, 
    919 F.3d 91
    ,
    - 37 -
    105 (1st Cir. 2019); United States v. Maldonado-Rivera, 
    489 F.3d 60
    , 66 (1st Cir. 2007).   Anyhow, the judge noted that Judge Smith
    had found Yanyoré-Pizarro's statements too unclear and seemingly
    inconsistent to satisfy the Wright test.     And she agreed with that
    take.   Yanyoré-Pizarro's "account of Pekeke's murder," she wrote,
    "appears to have been as variable as the wind," blaming, "at
    different points," different persons for Pekeke's murder.            She
    also thought that Yanyoré-Pizarro lacked personal knowledge of
    many of the material facts surrounding Pekeke's death and was
    merely "repeating the gossip he had heard about the different
    people" supposedly "behind the death."       So the judge ruled that
    our appellants had not shown that Yanyoré-Pizarro's          "testimony
    . . . would probably result in their acquittal" in any "retrial."
    Undaunted,   appellants   later    asked    the   judge    to
    reconsider. As support, they argued that on the very day the judge
    denied their motions, Yanyoré-Pizarro testified at a hearing for
    separately-tried codefendant Cruz-Ramos and again gave an account
    of Pekeke's murder that differed from the testimony presented by
    the government at their trial — an account (as described by them)
    indicating that a La Rompe leader ordered Pekeke killed to settle
    "an internal dispute" among [La] Rompe members.       "[I]f a jury were
    to believe that version," they wrote, "it is more than reasonably
    likely that none of [them] would have been convicted of the murder
    - 38 -
    of 'Pekeke.'"      They thought this way because the government
    prosecuted Pekeke's murder "on the basis of the VICAR statute" —
    a statute that (to again quote from their motion) forbids "murder
    . . . committed for the purpose of acquiring, maintaining or
    increasing a position in . . . La ONU."18   And in their view, this
    "newly discovered evidence" would sabotage the VICAR statute's
    purpose element.   They did not discuss — or even cite — Wright or
    its offspring, however.
    The government countered that Yanyoré-Pizarro had "no
    personal knowledge" about Pekeke's murder and that his testimony
    shed no light on what "motivat[ed]" our appellants "to participate"
    in the murder.      Arguing further, the government claimed that
    Yanyoré-Pizarro's statements actually corroborated "facts proven
    at trial," like his confirming that a guy named Joshua had shot
    Pekeke.
    Still convinced that our appellants had not fulfilled
    their burden for obtaining a new trial, the judge denied their
    reconsideration motion in a docket order.
    18 See United States v. Brandao, 
    539 F.3d 44
    , 56 (1st Cir.
    2008) (noting both that "the motive requirement in VICAR [is] a
    general one, satisfied by proof either that the crime was committed
    in furtherance of defendant's membership in the enterprise or
    because it was expected of him by reason of his membership," and
    that the government is not required to "prove this was sole
    purpose").
    - 39 -
    Arguments and Analysis19
    Astacio-Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo
    do not contest the judge's ruling that they had no right to post-
    conviction discovery.    They challenge only the judge's ruling that
    they had no right to a new trial.         And on that score, they argue
    that they should get a new trial under the Wright test.        To their
    way   of    thinking,   "[t]he   after-discovered     [Yanyoré-Pizarro]
    evidence tends to support the conclusion that Pekeke's murder was
    the result of cooperation between" La Rompe and La ONU, "not the
    result of La ONU acting" on its own because the gangs "were at war
    with each other."       The evidence thus destroys "the required
    'purpose' element of the VICAR statute," their argument runs — and
    so if the jury had heard and believed Yanyoré-Pizarro's version,
    "it is probable that none of them would have been convicted of the
    murder of Pekeke."       Disagreeing, the government asserts that
    appellants waived their Wright-based argument by not making it
    below.     Waiver aside, the government believes that their claim
    flops because the so-called "newly discovered evidence" is based
    on inadmissible hearsay, meaning the evidence lacks materiality
    19Earlier, the government questioned whether our appellants
    filed timely notices of appeal.    But the government now agrees
    with them that they did. And we will assume without deciding that
    they are right. See, e.g., United States v. Uribe-Londono, 
    177 F. App'x 89
    , 89 n.2 (1st Cir. 2006) (taking the assuming-without-
    deciding approach).
    - 40 -
    and would not probably produce a new result at a retrial.               For our
    part, we think the government is right about waiver — so we start
    and stop there.
    To succeed in a typical new-trial motion alleging newly-
    discovered evidence, a defendant must satisfy all four elements of
    the Wright test — i.e., and to repeat, he must show that the
    evidence (1) was either unknown or unavailable at time of trial;
    (2) could not have been discovered sooner with due diligence;
    (3) is     material,   not     merely     cumulative    or   impeaching;      and
    (4) would probably lead to acquittal at a retrial — a heavy burden
    for any defendant.       See, e.g., United States v. Peake, 
    874 F.3d 65
    , 69 (1st Cir. 2017); Flores-Rivera, 787 F.3d at 15; Maldonado-
    Rivera, 
    489 F.3d at 65-66
    .
    If, on the other hand, the defendant bases his new-trial
    motion on the delayed disclosure of Brady evidence — which consists
    of exculpatory or impeaching evidence — a more defendant-friendly
    standard    applies:     he    must     still   meet   elements   one   and   two
    (unavailability    and   due    diligence),      though   caselaw   swaps     out
    elements three and four (materiality and prejudice) for a
    unitary requirement that the defendant . . . demonstrate
    only a reasonable probability that, had the evidence
    been disclosed to the defense in a timely manner, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different.
    Peake, 874 F.3d at 69 (emphasis added and internal quotation marks
    omitted).      What makes this standard more defendant-friendly (at
    - 41 -
    least for present purposes) is that rather than having to show
    "'actual probability that the result would have differed,'" a
    defendant need only show "something sufficient to 'undermine[]
    confidence'" in the jury's verdict.      See United States v. Mathur,
    
    624 F.3d 498
    , 504 (1st Cir. 2010) (emphasis and alteration in
    original) (quoting Kyles v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 434 (1995));
    accord Flores-Rivera, 787 F.3d at 15-16; see also United States v.
    Sepulveda, 
    15 F.3d 1216
    , 1220 (1st Cir. 1993) (explaining that the
    "somewhat delphic 'undermine confidence' formula suggests that
    reversal might be warranted in some cases even if there is less
    than an even chance that the evidence would produce an acquittal").
    Ultimately, we review a judge's decision under either
    standard only for abuse of discretion.       See, e.g., United States
    v. Connolly, 
    504 F.3d 206
    , 211-12 (1st Cir. 2007).
    Back to our case.   Appellants made Brady-based arguments
    in their new-trial motion, using the "reasonable probability"
    standard that governs new-trial requests tied to alleged Brady
    violations.     Indeed, in pressing their motion, they cited to
    Flores-Rivera   —   a   Brady-based   case   involving   the   modified
    standard, not the Wright standard.       See 787 F.3d at 8.    They did
    not mention, let alone apply, the Wright test. Which defeats their
    attempt to do so here, because "legal theories not asserted in the
    lower court cannot be broached for the first time on appeal."       See
    - 42 -
    Goodwin v. C.N.J., Inc., 
    436 F.3d 44
    , 51 (1st Cir. 2006); see also
    McCoy v. Mass. Inst. of Tech., 
    950 F.2d 13
    , 22 n.7 (1st Cir. 1991)
    (adding that "[c]ourts are entitled to expect represented parties
    to incorporate all relevant arguments in the papers that directly
    address a pending motion").     The raise-or-waive rule is "founded
    upon important considerations of fairness, judicial economy, and
    practical wisdom."   Nat'l Ass'n of Soc. Workers v. Harwood, 
    69 F.3d 622
    , 627 (1st Cir. 1995).   And appellants offer no reason not
    to apply that rule in the circumstances of this case.     So their
    new-trial claim is a no-go.20    See Eldridge v. Gordon Bros. Grp.,
    L.L.C., 
    863 F.3d 66
    , 85 (1st Cir. 2017).
    We should add (as a quintessential belt-and-suspenders
    maneuver) that even if we were willing to overlook appellants'
    20 A subheading in Astacio-Espino's lead brief suggests that
    the judge erred by denying the new-trial motion "Without a Hearing"
    — a suggestion adopted by his coappellants. But their appellate
    papers never explain how the no-hearing here amounts to reversible
    error.   Which means the argument is waived.      See, e.g., Tutor
    Perini Corp. v. Banc of Am. Sec. LLC, 
    842 F.3d 71
    , 96 (1st Cir.
    2016).
    Astacio-Espino writes in his reply brief that "[t]he matter
    had not even reached the point [below] where the defendants might
    in good faith have requested an evidentiary hearing, much less the
    point where they might have filed a memorandum showing satisfaction
    of the four Wright factors" — contentions shared by his
    coappellants. But because they did not raise these arguments until
    the reply brief, we consider them waived, see United States v.
    Marino, 
    833 F.3d 1
    , 6 n.3 (1st Cir. 2016) — particularly since
    they highlight no "extraordinary circumstances" justifying any
    easing of this customary rule, see Lawless, 894 F.3d at 25.
    - 43 -
    waiver of a Wright-centric argument — and we most certainly are
    not — they would still lose.                The judge, to repeat, agreed with
    Judge Smith that Yanyoré-Pizarro indicated that various people had
    various motives for offing Pekeke.21              The judge also agreed with
    Judge        Smith    that   given   Yanyoré-Pizarro's    changing   narrative,
    appellants cannot satisfy their hefty burden of showing that the
    relied-on statements make it actually probable that a jury would
    acquit them on retrial.           Affirming Judge Smith's ruling, Laureano-
    Salgado stressed that "[a]t any new trial the jury would weigh"
    (a) "Yanyoré-Pizarro's shifting" account and his lack of personal
    knowledge        of    certain    details    behind   Pekeke's   murder   against
    (b) the        testimony     of   Figueroa-Cancel,     Gutiérrez-Santana,    and
    21
    Laureano-Salgado, ___ F.3d at ___ [Nos. 17-1052, 1053, slip
    op. at 22] provides a detailed discussion of Yanyoré-Pizarro's
    ever-shifting finger-pointing.   We excerpt a key passage here,
    however (we add the bracketed information for clarity):
    [Yanyoré-Pizarro's] statements . . . show that [he]
    basically suggested that different persons had different
    motives for killing Pekeke:     (a) La Rompe[] [leaders
    known as] Trenza and Papito Mojica, apparently to take
    over Pekeke's drug points; (b) La Rompe bosses at the
    Alturas de Cupey housing project, supposedly because
    Pekeke had refused their help request [regarding their
    drug business]; (c) [a] La Rompe[] [member known as]
    Frank, apparently because Frank and Pekeke could not
    agree on who was "the boss" — in his last version of
    this narrative, Yanyoré-Pizarro had Frank working with
    La ONU to gun down Pekeke; and (d) gangbangers from the
    Luis Llorén Torres housing project, supposedly because
    Pekeke had orchestrated their leader's murder.
    Id.
    - 44 -
    Figueroa-Viera   "implicating"   the   defendants   there   "in   [the]
    slaying" and showing that these witnesses helped take Pekeke down.
    Laureano-Salgado, ___ F.3d at ___ [Nos. 17-1052, 1053, slip op. at
    22-23].   So too here.   Laureano-Salgado also concluded that the
    "evidentiary comparison" showed that Yanyoré-Pizarro's varying
    accounts "are not 'sufficiently compelling' as to generate a
    realistic probability of an acquittal on the VICAR" charges.       Id.
    [slip op. at 23] (quoting United States v. Alicea, 
    205 F.3d 480
    ,
    487 (1st Cir. 2000)).    And again, so too here.        Which is why
    appellants are out of luck here, waiver or not.
    One last claim, and we are done.
    Crime-of-Violence Claim
    As we mentioned many pages ago, the jury found Astacio-
    Espino, Lanza-Vázquez, and Rivera-Carasquillo guilty on various
    counts of using and carrying a firearm during a "crime of violence"
    — i.e., VICAR murder predicated on Puerto Rico's murder statute —
    in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(A).22   A "crime of violence,"
    you should know, is any felony offense that
    22The pertinent Puerto Rico statute, 
    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 33, § 4734
    , provides that first-degree murder is
    (a) Any murder committed by means of poison, stalking or
    torture, or with premeditation.
    (b) Any murder committed as a natural consequence of the
    attempt or consummation of aggravated arson, sexual
    assault, robbery, aggravated burglary, kidnapping, child
    abduction, serious damage or destruction, poisoning of
    - 45 -
    (A) has as an element the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against the person or
    property of another, or
    (B) that by its nature, involves a substantial risk that
    physical force against the person or property of another
    may be used in the course of committing the offense.
    Courts sometimes call subparagraph (A) the "force clause" and
    subparagraph (B) the "residual clause."      See, e.g., United States
    v. Taylor, 
    848 F.3d 476
    , 491 (1st Cir. 2017).
    Our appellants believe first-degree murder under Puerto
    Rico law is not a crime of violence under either the force clause
    or the residual clause.     Because they (admittedly) did not raise
    the crime-of-violence issue below, they must now run the gauntlet
    of   plain-error   review   —   a   very-difficult-to-meet   standard,
    remember (see footnote 14), that requires them to "show (1) error,
    (2) plainness, (3) prejudice [to them], and (4) an outcome that is
    a miscarriage of justice or akin to it."        See United States v.
    Edelkind, 
    467 F.3d 791
    , 797 (1st Cir. 2006); see also United States
    v. Pabon, 
    819 F.3d 26
    , 33 (1st Cir. 2016) (stressing that "[t]he
    party asserting plain error bears the burden of persuasion"); see
    bodies of water for public use, mayhem, escape, and
    intentional abuse or abandonment of a minor.
    (c) The murder of a law enforcement officer, school
    police, municipal guard or police officer, marshal,
    prosecutor, solicitor for minors' affairs, special
    family solicitors for child abuse, judge or custody
    officer in the performance of his duty, committed while
    carrying out, attempting or concealing a felony.
    - 46 -
    generally Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 135
     (emphasizing that meeting all
    four plain-error factors "is difficult, as it should be").
    Helpfully   for    appellants,   after   the   completion   of
    briefing here, the Supreme Court struck down the residual clause
    as unconstitutionally vague.       See United States v. Davis, 
    139 S. Ct. 2319
    , 2336 (2019).        And with the residual clause now out of
    way, they must convince us that a violation of Puerto Rico's murder
    statute cannot be a crime of violence under the force clause. They
    say they can because, in their words, Puerto Rico's murder statute
    "has no element requiring the intentional use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of violent physical force" — "killing," they write,
    "could encompass non-physical force."         The government says they
    cannot because, to quote its brief, "common sense" suggests that
    there is probably no "more 'violent' crime than premeditated
    murder."
    Right off the bat, though, appellants have a problem.
    Under a brief subheading titled "Defendants Meet the Plain Error
    Standard," appellants explain why they should get plain-error
    relief since a violation of Puerto Rico's murder statute cannot be
    a crime of violence under the residual clause — a point well taken,
    especially given the Supreme Court's hot-off-the-presses Davis
    decision.    But (and it's a very big but) they do not explain why
    reliance on the force clause here is plain error — for example,
    - 47 -
    they never say how any error (if error there was) is "plain," i.e.,
    "an 'indisputable' error . . ., 'given controlling precedent.'"
    See United States v. Morosco, 
    822 F.3d 1
    , 21 (1st Cir. 2016)
    (quoting United States v. Correa-Osorio, 
    784 F.3d 11
    , 22 (1st Cir.
    2015)).    Properly applying force-clause precedent is no picnic (an
    understatement if ever there was one), seeing how the "'crime of
    violence'" definition "is complex and unclear."           See U.S.S.G.,
    Supplement to Appendix C, Amend. 798 at 119 (2018). So the parties
    must give us the help we need — again, it is for them, not us, to
    "develop[] sustained argument out of . . . legal precedents."         See
    Town of Norwood v. Fed. Energy Reg. Comm'n, 
    202 F.3d 393
    , 404-05
    (1st Cir. 2000).      But what our appellants have done — making no
    effort to satisfy every part of the plain-error test on the force-
    clause question (despite having the burden of proving plain error)
    — "is hardly a serious treatment of a complex issue."           See Tayag
    v. Lahey Clinic Hosp., Inc., 
    632 F.3d 788
    , 792 (1st Cir. 2011).
    Which     dooms   their   crime-of-violence   claim   —   for   as   legal
    sophisticates know, a party's "failure to attempt to meet the four-
    part burden under plain error review constitutes waiver."             See
    United States v. Severino-Pacheco, 
    911 F.3d 14
    , 20 (1st Cir. 2018)
    (relying on Pabon, 819 F.3d at 33-34).
    And that is that.
    - 48 -
    Wrap Up
    Because   appellants'   challenges   come   to   naught,   we
    affirm.
    - 49 -