United States v. Takesian ( 2019 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 18-1140
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    GREG TAKESIAN,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. William G. Young, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Howard, Chief Judge,
    Thompson and Barron, Circuit Judges.
    Tina Schneider for appellant.
    Randall E. Kromm, Assistant United States Attorney, with whom
    Andrew E. Lelling, United States Attorney, was on brief, for
    appellee.
    December 18, 2019
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.    Greg Takesian is a certified-
    public-accountant-turned-tax-cheat.       Or so a jury essentially
    concluded in convicting him of four counts of filing false tax
    returns, see 26 U.S.C. § 7206(1), and one count of attempting to
    obstruct the internal-revenue laws, see 26 U.S.C. § 7212(a).       A
    district judge at sentencing hit him with concurrent prison terms
    of 24 months on each count, 12 months of supervised release
    following the end of his incarceration, a special assessment of
    $100 on each count, a $10,000 fine, and restitution totaling
    $286,433.   None too happy with these results, Takesian argues here
    that the judge thrice erred: first, by letting prosecutors impeach
    him with his 2006 conviction for making a false statement; second,
    by failing to tell the jury that to convict on the obstruction
    count, prosecutors had to prove that he obstructed a particular
    tax-related proceeding that he knew about or could reasonably
    foresee; and third, by ordering restitution beyond what the jury
    found the government's tax loss to be.      Disagreeing with him, we
    affirm.
    BACKGROUND
    Below is a barebones summary of the relevant facts,
    presented in as balanced a manner as possible.     See, e.g., United
    States v. Rodríguez-Soler, 
    773 F.3d 289
    , 290 (1st Cir. 2014).
    - 2 -
    Government's Case
    The government's witnesses (primarily law-enforcement
    agents), plus the documentary evidence, provided the following
    narrative:
    Together with his father, Michael (we use his first name
    not out of disrespect, but to avoid confusing references to persons
    with the same last name), Takesian formed a company in 2002 called
    Takesian & Company (from now on, "T & C") — an S corporation for
    federal-tax purposes.      For an S corporation, profits and losses
    flow through to the shareholders and must be reported on their
    personal tax returns.      The annual amount of profit or loss to a
    given shareholder is reflected in a form known as a "Form K-1,"
    which the S corporation files with the Internal Revenue Service
    (familiarly known as the "IRS") and the shareholders use to prepare
    their personal returns.     Initially, Takesian held a 25% ownership
    share and Michael held a 75% share.         But from 2007 through 2015
    (when T & C dissolved), Michael was the sole owner.                Takesian,
    though, served as T & C's president and treasurer, handling T &
    C's day-to-day operations.
    In its early years, T & C did tax work for a number of
    clients. But that changed in 2007, when the father-son duo started
    working almost full time for Michael Galatis, doing bookkeeping
    and   accounting   jobs   for   Galatis   and   At   Home   VNA   (Galatis's
    - 3 -
    visiting-nurse company).    From 2008 to 2011, Galatis and At Home
    VNA paid T & C about $2 million, which ended up being deposited in
    T & C's bank accounts.     Takesian had access to T & C's accounts
    during that same period, however.    And he put close to $1 million
    of this money to his own use, through checks, cash withdrawals,
    and credit-card payments.    A few examples:   he used the money to
    pay for his rent and to underwrite an investment in a food truck,
    as well as to support his wife (from whom he was separated) and a
    woman he was romantically involved with (she was studying to be a
    massage therapist).
    Takesian did not timely file his personal tax returns
    for tax years 2008-2010.       From July 2011 through early 2012,
    however, he filed personal tax returns for tax years 2008-2011 for
    himself and his wife.     He signed each return, attesting — under
    penalty of perjury — that they were "true, correct, and complete."
    None of the returns reflected the money from T & C that he had put
    to his personal use.    For instance, the 2008 return did not report
    any income from T & C — it showed only $12,766 in wages from
    Cerebral Palsy of Massachusetts and about $10,000 in gross receipts
    for a consulting business called "Greg C. Takesian, CPA."       Yet
    during that year, he took $159,044.99 from T & C's accounts for
    personal purposes.
    - 4 -
    As part of a healthcare-fraud investigation of At Home
    VNA (which received Medicaid and Medicare funds), federal agents
    executed a search warrant at At Home VNA's offices in December
    2011.       During the search, the agents ran into Takesian, who was
    working in an office in the same suite.      And he voluntarily said
    that he did accounting work for At Home VNA and Galatis.     He also
    voluntarily gave the agents 26 boxes of warrant-related documents.
    Sometime in 2012, the IRS began investigating T & C and
    Takesian.      But the healthcare-fraud investigation continued too.
    And in April 2013, as part of the healthcare-fraud probe, a federal
    grand jury subpoenaed T & C's documents memorializing T & C's
    income, expenses, and debts for 2006 through 2011, including copies
    of corporate tax returns and loans receivable (loans receivable is
    an account in a lender's general ledger showing the current balance
    of all loans owed to it).1        About a month later, in May 2013,
    1
    The subpoena asked T & C's keeper of records to produce
    "[a]ll corporate records and books of account relative to [T &
    C's] financial transactions" from January 1, 2006 through December
    31, 2011, including but not limited to
    ALL CORPORATE BOOKKEEPING RECORDS and other financial
    records including General Ledger, General Journals, all
    Subsidiary Ledgers and Journals, Gross Receipts and
    income records, Cash Receipts and Disbursement records
    and/or Journals, sales and Purchase records and/or
    Journals, Accounts Receivable and Payable Ledgers and
    records, Bad Debt records, Cost of goods Sold records,
    Loan Receivable and Payable Ledgers, Voucher Register
    and all sales and expense invoices including all
    invoices documenting expenses paid by cash (currency) or
    - 5 -
    Takesian personally delivered documents to the U.S. Attorney's
    Office in Boston, Massachusetts.       He tried to talk with the
    prosecutor on the case.     But the prosecutor said that he would
    only speak to Takesian with Takesian's attorney present.   Takesian
    then said that he had brought "everything . . . related" to At
    Home VNA and Galatis.   He also said that he had brought copies of
    T & C's tax returns for tax years 2008-2011 — returns (the
    government later learned) that he had printed out a day earlier
    but had never filed.
    In August 2013, Lauren Youngquist — an agent with the
    IRS's criminal investigation division involved with the At-Home-
    VNA case — interviewed Takesian.       She said that she was not
    investigating him, however.   Actually, she never told him that he
    was under investigation at all.   But she did ask him about his and
    T & C's tax returns.
    Fast forward a bit to March 2014.     Agents interviewed
    Michael about T & C's tax filings and operations, as well as
    Takesian's role at T & C.     Michael confirmed that Takesian had
    bank check (cashier or teller checks) and retained
    copies of any bank checks (cashier or teller checks.)
    A copy of the accounting software files used in the daily
    operation of [T & C].
    Copies of all U.S. Corporation Income Tax Forms 1120
    and/or all U.S. Income Tax returns for an S Corporation
    Forms 11205.
    - 6 -
    given him "K-1 information" to prepare his (Michael's) tax returns.
    Agents told Michael that Takesian had not yet filed T & C's tax
    returns, which surprised Michael because Takesian had given him
    info from the K-1 forms associated with those returns and Michael
    had relied on the info for his own taxes.    Agents also gave Michael
    a subpoena directing him to appear and testify before a federal
    grand jury in April 2014.
    A few months after this interview, in July or August
    2014, Takesian filed T & C's corporate returns for tax years 2008-
    2011.   Among the differences between those returns and the unfiled
    returns he had previously given the government, two stand out:
    (1) the filed returns reflected tens of thousands of dollars of
    unspecified "loans" to an unidentified T & C "officer," unsupported
    by any documents in the T & C files that he had provided earlier
    (identifying these amounts as loans meant they did not need to be
    counted as income by the loan's recipient); and (2) the filed
    returns included K-1 forms that did not match the unfiled ones.
    Also around this time, Takesian filed amended personal
    returns   for   tax   years   2008-2011.   These   returns   identified
    additional income and new deductions.      But despite the additional
    income, the amounts reported there did not account for all of the
    T & C money that he took for his personal use.        And some of the
    new deductions seemed off.      To take just one example, in some of
    - 7 -
    the amended returns he claimed over $100,000 in losses through
    theft or fraud, but court records from a civil suit involving him
    indicated that he had earlier pegged the loss at $43,000.
    Of course, Takesian tested the prosecutors' case through
    his lawyer's cross-examination of their witnesses.    For instance,
    on cross-examination, defense counsel elicited testimony from IRS
    agent Youngquist that while she recalled asking Takesian questions
    in August 2013 about T & C's "tax returns and his personal tax
    returns," she could not "remember if [she] had the actual tax
    returns in front of [her]" — and she agreed that if she did not
    have his returns right then and there, she "most likely" would not
    "have . . . asked him questions" about his returns.
    Based on the evidence it had amassed, and focusing on
    tax years 2008-2011, the prosecution contended that Takesian's
    failure to accurately disclose his income from T & C and to
    correctly calculate his deductions resulted in an estimated tax
    underpayment of $286,433.
    Defense's Case
    Looking to counter the government's narrative, Michael
    and Takesian essentially testified as follows:
    Michael said that he let Takesian "borrow" money from T
    & C to "invest."   "I didn't care what he did with it," Michael
    added, "except that [Takesian] knew he had to pay the money back."
    - 8 -
    And because of their father-son relationship, they did not do
    "anything formal as far as signing notes, and so forth," but
    instead relied on a "gentlemen's agreement"2 — though Michael
    admitted that he did not tell the grand jury about the loans.
    Turning to the T & C credit cards, Michael said that he let Takesian
    use them, with no strings attached.
    Taking the stand in his own defense, Takesian said that
    Michael had told him that he could use T & C's funds and credit
    cards as he "saw fit," as long as he did not deduct personal
    expenses on T & C's returns.   He also said that he did not report
    the money his father had loaned him because loan proceeds do not
    qualify as income to the borrower.      He said as well that he did
    not report various personal payments he had made (to his wife and
    girlfriend, for the food truck, etc.) because he had used the loan
    proceeds to make them — and loan proceeds, he repeated, are "non-
    taxable."   Plus he said that he had drafted T & C's final returns
    and his amended returns the way he did because he had changed how
    T & C's returns would be structured, moving certain income and
    2 According to a widely used legal dictionary, a "gentlemen's
    agreement" is "[a]n unwritten agreement that, while not legally
    enforceable, is secured by the good faith and honor of the
    parties." See Gentlemen's Agreement, Black's Law Dictionary 801
    (10th ed. 2014) [henceforth, "Black's Law"]; see generally United
    States v. Romero, 
    906 F.3d 196
    , 208 (1st Cir. 2018) (calling that
    dictionary "the go-to dictionary for courts in figuring out the
    commonest legal meanings of terms").
    - 9 -
    losses from T & C to himself and Michael — which he did after
    talking with Michael. And he said that the government "never told"
    him that the IRS had targeted him for investigation and that he
    never received a subpoena requiring him to produce his tax returns.
    The   government's    cross-examination    of   Takesian
    established several points. For example, when asked if "Youngquist
    asked . . . you questions about [T & C] and your tax returns?" he
    responded, "Yes, brief questions about [T & C] and my tax returns"
    — though he then said that she "had no tax returns" and "didn't
    ask me anything about that."    He did admit that T & C's unfiled
    returns did not mention the loan reflected in the later return —
    though he claimed that the loan came not from T & C but from
    Michael and was included in the filed T & C return for record-
    keeping purposes.   He also said that about a month after agents
    interviewed Michael in March 2014, a prosecutor "threatened" to
    "get" him and his father.      "So with all this going on," the
    government asked, "is it your testimony that you had no idea that
    you are somehow [the] subject of a federal investigation at this
    time?" — to which Takesian indicated that he knew he and T & C
    were under investigation too, though he believed (based on the
    questions asked of him) that the investigation centered on whether
    he and Michael "were overpaid or . . . laundering money . . . for
    Galatis"; "it was never about [his] tax returns," he added.
    - 10 -
    Parties' Summations and Judge's Instructions
    In its closing argument, the government (among other
    things) criticized Takesian's theory of the case.   "Takesian," the
    government argued,
    a CPA . . . for 25 years, . . . submitted fraudulent and
    false income tax returns to the IRS, concealing close to
    a million dollars in income . . . from the IRS. . . .
    When he got caught and the IRS . . . started asking
    questions, . . . he doubled down on those lies, and
    instead of trying to make things right and filing
    corrected amended returns, he created fictitious loans
    that came out of nowhere[;] he created fraudulent
    deductions that tenfold increased the amount of money to
    account for all the spending he had been doing for the
    years.
    Insisting that Takesian used T & C's "bank account . . . like his
    own personal piggy bank" and that he knew "how much money . . . he
    ha[d] spent," the government argued that he also knew that he was
    "under investigation," pointing to the "subpoenas"; "the draft
    filings he delivered to the U.S. Attorney's Office"; and "the
    amended filings he made," which "included the fraudulent and
    fictitious loans and the fraudulent and inaccurate deductions that
    are out of whack with reality."
    In his closing, defense counsel argued (among other
    points) that Michael had "loaned" Takesian about $1 million.    On
    the obstruction issue, counsel argued that prosecutors had not
    proved "the exact and precise date that . . . Takesian was actually
    - 11 -
    placed on notice that his personal tax returns . . . were being
    investigated[.]"   "[T]hey've alluded to a date," counsel said, and
    there may be evidence of what that date may or could
    have been, but where is the individual that took the
    stand and said 'I' . . . in fact told . . . Takesian, on
    a certain date at a certain place at a certain time,
    that his personal tax returns were being investigated?
    Suggesting an answer to his own question, counsel said "there was
    no witness," adding as well that the prosecution had "the burden
    . . . to establish that."
    The government's rebuttal closing asked the jury (as
    relevant here) to reject "the idea that [Takesian] had no idea
    that he was under investigation" and to find that he acted as he
    did because "he got caught" and "was trying to trick the IRS."
    "[F]or you to believe that there was a loan in this case," the
    government argued, "a loan that wiped out hundreds of thousands of
    dollars in income, you have to believe . . . Greg Takesian," a
    person convicted "in 2006 . . . of a felony offense of making a
    false statement, . . . and you can consider that evidence in
    evaluating his credibility."
    The judge instructed the jury (in pertinent part) that
    the government had to prove that Takesian "willfully" filed "false"
    federal tax returns — which means "he did it voluntarily, he
    intended the violation of a known legal duty." The judge explained
    - 12 -
    that "the law does permit you to make a good faith amendment" to
    the returns.   But, the judge said,
    [t]he government claims they were not. [It] claim[s]
    that this business about a loan from the father, Michael,
    to the son, Greg, that's all after the fact, that's all
    made up . . . once . . . Greg Takesian came to understand
    that the Internal Revenue people were investigating him
    and the propriety of his returns.
    Focusing on the obstruction charge, the judge instructed that the
    government had to prove
    [t]hat . . . Takesian . . . did something in an effort
    to obstruct or impede the due administration of the
    Internal Revenue laws in the manner charged, and the
    manner charged is this business about a loan — not just
    the filing of amended returns, but anything about this
    business about a loan.
    And the government also had to prove that Takesian
    did . . . do that corruptly[.] To act 'corruptly' means
    to act with the intent to secure an unlawful advantage
    . . . .      'Obstruct and impede' mean[] to hinder,
    interfere with, create obstacles, make it difficult, the
    intentional concealment of income or other assets from
    the IRS.
    Jury's Verdict and Judge's Sentence
    Unfortunately for Takesian, the jury rejected his case
    theory, convicting him of filing false returns in the tax years
    2008-2011, and of attempting to obstruct or impede the IRS.      And
    as relevant here, the judge then ordered concurrent 24-month prison
    - 13 -
    terms       for     each   count,    a    $100    special   assessment    for   each
    conviction, and $286,433 in restitution.
    ISSUES AND RULINGS
    We now turn to the legal issues before us, adding further
    details as needed to put matters into perspective.
    Prior-Conviction Issue
    First up is Takesian's claim that the judge stumbled by
    admitting for impeachment purposes a false-statement conviction he
    incurred in 2006 — an error that he says should compel us to
    reverse his false-tax-return and obstruction convictions.
    Setup
    Takesian   moved       in     limine   before   trial   to    stop
    prosecutors from (among other things) trying to introduce his 2006
    false-statement conviction.3 Relying on Federal Evidence Rule 609,
    he basically argued that any probative worth that this conviction
    had was "substantially outweighed by its prejudicial effect,"
    given its remoteness to the present allegations.4                 Responding, the
    3
    An objection based on the Federal Evidence Rules may be made
    during trial. See Fed. R. Evid. 103(a)(1). But a party can ask
    for a decision under the Rules before trial, which is what an in
    limine motion is. See In-limine, Black's Law at 907. And if the
    judge definitively resolves the issue before trial, the party need
    not object at trial. See United States v. Raymond, 
    697 F.3d 32
    ,
    37 n.4 (1st Cir. 2012).
    4   Pertinently, Rule 609 provides:
    - 14 -
    government wrote that the nature of his 2006 conviction — "making
    a   materially   false   statement   to   federal   agents"   —   made   it
    "particularly probative of [his] credibility."
    (a) In General.     The following rules apply to
    attacking a witness's character for truthfulness by
    evidence of a criminal conviction:
    (1)  for   a   crime   that,  in  the  convicting
    jurisdiction,   was   punishable  by  death   or   by
    imprisonment for more than one year, the evidence:
    (A) must be admitted, subject to Rule 403,in a
    civil case or in a criminal case in which the
    witness is not a defendant; and
    (B) must be admitted in a criminal case in which
    the witness is a defendant, if the probative value
    of the evidence outweighs its prejudicial effect to
    that defendant; and
    (2) for any crime regardless of the punishment, the
    evidence must be admitted if the court can readily
    determine that establishing the elements of the crime
    required proving — or the witness's admitting — a
    dishonest act or false statement.
    (b) Limit on Using the Evidence After 10 Years. This
    subdivision (b) applies if more than 10 years have passed
    since the witness's conviction or release from
    confinement for it, whichever is later. Evidence of the
    conviction is admissible only if:
    (1) its probative value, supported by specific
    facts and circumstances, substantially outweighs its
    prejudicial effect; and
    (2) the proponent gives an adverse party reasonable
    written notice of the intent to use it so that the
    party has a fair opportunity to contest its use.
    Helpfully, both parties concede (at least implicitly) that
    Takesian's 2006 conviction is over ten years old, thus triggering
    Rule 609(b)'s proscriptions.   And we see no reason to question
    this concession.
    - 15 -
    As for what the judge did with the motion, both sides'
    briefs on appeal say that the record does not reflect that he ruled
    on it.    Just before oral argument here, however, the government's
    appellate lawyer sent us a letter saying that a colleague "recalled
    that the district court's clerk" said in an email to the attorneys
    for both parties during the trial that the judge "had decided to
    admit     the   prior   conviction    if   [Takesian]     testified."5
    Unfortunately, and for reasons unknown to us, the email was not
    made part of the record below.
    Anyway, when cross-examining Takesian at trial, the
    government brought up how he had signed his tax returns "[u]nder
    pains and penalties of perjury."      The government then asked him
    what that phrase meant to him.       And he agreed it meant that he
    could not make "material[ly] false statements."         "[A]re you the
    same Greg Takesian who back in the year 2006 was convicted in this
    court of making a materially false statement before Judge Zobel?"
    the government inquired.    Takesian answered the question, without
    objection.6     And the judge on his own initiative instructed the
    jurors, without objection, that the 2006 conviction
    5 The body of the email reads in full: "Good morning counsel.
    Judge Young wanted me to inform you that if Mr. Takesian testifies,
    he will allow his prior convictions."
    6   His response was a little convoluted.   See for yourself:
    - 16 -
    has nothing to do with this case. Nothing. It doesn't
    involve the tax years, it doesn't involve any of the
    people, it has nothing to do with this case.      So why
    then am I allowing you to hear about the fact of that
    prior conviction? Because under the law you are entitled
    to take into account the fact of that prior conviction
    in evaluating whether you believe this witness,
    disbelieve this witness, believe parts of what this
    witness says. You are allowed to do that. You don't
    have to, but you are allowed to. So of course it is
    appropriate for that fact to be brought out.
    Just remember that that case, before my colleague,
    Judge Zobel, has nothing to do with this case, it's just
    a fact of conviction which you may, but are not required
    to, use in evaluating the credibility of this particular
    witness.
    Takesian did object later when the government asked about his
    sentence for that conviction.    But he said nothing when the judge,
    after sustaining the objection, explained to the jurors that
    "[i]t's the fact of conviction that is of significance here if you
    decide that it bolsters the evidence."
    Q.   Mr. Takesian, are you the same Greg Takesian who
    back in 2006 was convicted in this court of making a
    material false statement before Judge Zobel?
    A.   No.
    Q.   You're not that same Greg Takesian?
    A.   I made a false statement in 2003 . . . .
    Q.   But that was a felony conviction, sir, was it not?
    A.   For wire fraud, correct.
    Q. Okay. It also included making a false statement and
    a material false statement, is that correct?
    A. I don't know that it said "material false," I made
    a false statement . . . .
    - 17 -
    The   government    said    nothing   about   Takesian's   2006
    conviction in its closing argument.           But as we observed earlier,
    the government did briefly touch on the conviction in rebuttal,
    without drawing any objection from Takesian: "[F]or you to believe
    that there was a loan in this case," the government said, "a loan
    that wiped out hundreds of thousands of dollars in income, you
    have to believe . . . Greg Takesian, who you have heard" stands
    convicted of a "2006 . . . felony offense of making a false
    statement, . . . and you can consider that evidence in evaluating
    his credibility."
    Takesian now faults the judge for not making on-the-
    record findings about whether the 2006 conviction's "probative
    value substantially outweighed its prejudicial impact."             He also
    contends that because "[t]he crime of making a false statement is
    strikingly similar to willfully filing a false tax return," he
    faced the prejudice of a propensity taint — i.e., that "the jury
    might draw the impermissible inference" from the 2006 conviction
    that he had a natural tendency "to commit these kinds of offenses."
    The government, on the other hand, claims that we "do[] not
    require" district judges to make such "on-the-record findings" and
    that "the prior crime was not so similar to the instant charges
    that   the   jury"   —   which   had    received   "strong,"   unobjected-to
    instructions from the judge — "could not be trusted to consider
    - 18 -
    the    conviction         only       as   impeachment        and   not    as   a    form    of
    propensity."
    Analysis
    The parties do not see eye-to-eye on which standard of
    review controls.            Takesian writes that his in limine motion asked
    the judge to decide whether the probative value of his 2006
    conviction          substantially         outweighed         its   prejudicial       effect,
    preserving his Rule 609-based arguments and thus triggering abuse-
    of-discretion review.                The government's bottom-line position is
    that       even    if    the    clerk's    email        on   the   in-limine       matter    is
    definitive enough to excuse his not objecting at trial and thus
    preserves his right to challenge the evidence on appeal, plain-
    error review applies because his arguments here differ from the
    ones he made below.7
    Like   the    government,       we     assume    for   argument's        sake
    (favorably to Takesian) that the email definitively resolved his
    in-limine         motion,      making     an    at-trial     objection     unnecessary       —
    though we emphasize that Rule 103 requires the objecting party
    (here,      Takesian)          "to   clarify     whether      an   in    limine     or   other
    evidentiary ruling is definitive when there is doubt on that
    point."       See Crowe v. Bolduc, 
    334 F.3d 124
    , 133 (1st Cir. 2003)
    7
    Takesian's appellate counsel is different from his trial
    counsel.
    - 19 -
    (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 103 advisory committee's note to 2000
    amendment).   Still, for the reasons given by the government, we
    conclude   that   Takesian's   arguments   (which   differ   from   those
    advanced in the district court) get at best only plain-error
    review.
    The caselaw on plain error "is not defendant-friendly,"
    to say the least.   See 
    Rodríguez-Soler, 773 F.3d at 294
    .       And that
    is as it should be, seeing how the goal here is to get parties to
    timely object to trial errors so judges can fix them without the
    need for costly appeals and retrials.          See United States v.
    Domínguez Benítez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 82 (2004) (explaining that the
    plain-error "standard should . . . encourage timely objections and
    reduce wasteful reversals by demanding strenuous exertion to get
    relief for unpreserved error" (emphasis added)); United States v.
    Correa-Osorio, 
    784 F.3d 11
    , 22 (1st Cir. 2015) (similar). Takesian
    thus faces what seems like a 90-degree climb.        See, e.g., United
    States v. Jiménez, 
    512 F.3d 1
    , 3 (1st Cir. 2007).            And that is
    because to prevail on plain-error review, he must show not just
    (1) error, but (2) error that is clear, that (3) affected his
    substantial rights, and that (4) also seriously undermined the
    fairness, integrity, or public perception of his trial. See United
    States v. Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d 33
    , 48 n.14 (1st Cir.
    2019); see also Henderson v. United States, 
    568 U.S. 266
    , 278
    - 20 -
    (2013) (noting that elements three and four of the plain-error
    test are "screening criteria" designed to keep the "'plain error'
    floodgates" from opening); Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    ,
    134 (2009) (warning that "a reflexive inclination by appellate
    courts to reverse because of unpreserved error would be fatal,"
    given how "errors are a constant in the trial process" and most
    "do not much matter" (quoting United States v. Padilla, 
    415 F.3d 211
    , 224 (1st Cir. 2005) (Boudin, C.J., concurring))).
    Takesian cannot scale plain error's difficult heights,
    however.   He points us to no controlling law showing that we
    require judges to make on-the-record findings under Rule 609(b).
    And the provision's text does not clearly require such findings
    either.8   His ultimate problem is that he did not object to the
    absence of findings.    And if an error pressed by the appellant
    turns on "a factual finding [he] neglected to ask the district
    court to make, the error cannot be clear or obvious unless" he
    shows that "the desired factual finding is the only one rationally
    supported by the record below."    See United States v. Olivier-
    Diaz, 
    13 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st Cir. 1993) (quotation marks omitted).   But
    this he has not done.   So plain error is plainly lacking when it
    8 But see United States v. Payton, 
    159 F.3d 49
    , 57 (2d Cir.
    1998); United States v. Acosta, 
    763 F.2d 671
    , 695 (5th Cir. 1985);
    United States v. Cavender, 
    578 F.2d 528
    , 532 (4th Cir. 1978).
    - 21 -
    comes to the on-the-record-findings issue.               See United States v.
    Morosco, 
    822 F.3d 1
    , 21 (1st Cir. 2016) (explaining that "plain
    error" is "an indisputable error by the judge, given controlling
    precedent" (quotation marks omitted)).
    Now consider Takesian's claim that the false-statement
    offense underlying his 2006 conviction was so "similar" to the
    false-tax-return crime charged in this case that the jury might
    have drawn a forbidden propensity inference.               The difficulty for
    him   is   that   he    argued   below    that   the    2006   conviction     was
    "completely different from" the current "allegations" — i.e., the
    "prior     conviction[]/charge[]        do[es]   not    resemble   the   present
    charges."       Our precedent "simply does not allow a litigant to
    switch     horses in mid-stream, abandoning theories and arguments
    raised in the trial court and substituting in their place new ones
    raised for the first time in the court of appeals."                Campbell v.
    Ackerman, 
    903 F.3d 14
    , 18 (1st Cir. 2018).                 This too does not
    suffice to satisfy the "oh-so demanding" plain-error standard.
    See 
    Rodríguez-Soler, 773 F.3d at 293
    .
    One issue down, two to go.
    Instruction Issue
    Next up is Takesian's claim that the judge botched
    matters    by   not    telling   the    jurors   that    "to   convict   on   the
    obstruction count," they had to "find that . . . a particular
    - 22 -
    administrative tax proceeding was pending" when "the defendant
    engaged in the obstructive conduct, or that such a proceeding was
    then reasonably foreseeable to him" — an omission that he says
    should require us to reverse his obstruction conviction.
    Setup
    A federal statute makes it a crime to "corruptly . . .
    endeavor[] to obstruct or impede . . . the due administration of"
    the internal-revenue laws.          See 26 U.S.C. § 7212(a).             Our law at
    the time of Takesian's trial did not require that prosecutors prove
    the defendant did the complained-of acts when the IRS proceeding
    was either pending or reasonably foreseeable to him — it required
    only that they prove that he "1) corruptly, 2) endeavored, 3) to
    obstruct    or   impede    the   due     administration       of   the   [i]nternal
    [r]evenue laws."     See United States v. Floyd, 
    740 F.3d 22
    , 31 (1st
    Cir. 2014) (quoting United States v. Marek, 
    548 F.3d 147
    , 150 (1st
    Cir. 2008)).       And consistent with this precedent, Takesian's
    indictment    charged     him    with    a   range     of   obstructive    conduct,
    including    conduct      that   "predated       any   ongoing     or    foreseeable
    investigation by the IRS" (a quotation lifted from the government's
    brief, by the way).9
    9   Among other things, the indictment's obstruction count
    accused him of:
    a. Writing checks drawn on [T & C's] bank account to his
    wife, landlord, and Person B.
    - 23 -
    Then came Marinello v. United States, a Supreme Court
    case decided after Takesian's trial.           See 
    138 S. Ct. 1101
    (2018).
    Marinello held that the government must also show a "nexus" between
    the defendant's obstructive conduct and the proceeding (i.e., that
    his actions had a "relationship in time, causation, or logic" to
    the obstructed proceeding), plus show "the proceeding was pending
    at the time [he] engaged in the obstructive conduct or, at the
    least, was then reasonably foreseeable by [him]."             
    Id. at 1109-
    10;   see   
    id. at 1109
      (noting   that    an   "investigation"   is   a
    "proceeding," though declining to "exhaustively itemize the types
    b. Withdrawing cash from [T & C's] bank account and
    causing it to be deposited into bank accounts of his
    wife and Person B;
    c. Using and causing to be used [T & C] credit cards for
    personal expenses;
    d. Causing individual tax returns . . . to be filed,
    which were materially false in that they failed to
    report a substantial amount of income that [he] had
    obtained from [T & C] during the tax years;
    e. Producing to government investigators purported
    returns for [T & C], including for tax years 2008-
    2011, that had not been filed with the IRS and that
    were false and/or misleading;
    f. After learning of the federal investigation, causing
    false [T & C] tax returns . . . to be used with the
    IRS; and
    g. After learning of the federal investigation, causing
    false amended personal tax returns . . . to be filed,
    which continued to under-report his income, included
    false losses and deductions, and falsely reported a
    taxable income of $0 in each of the tax years at
    issue.
    - 24 -
    of administrative conduct that fall within the scope of the
    statute"); see also 
    id. at 1110
    (adding that "[i]t is not enough
    for the Government to claim that the defendant knew the IRS may
    catch on to his unlawful scheme eventually").
    Citing Marinello, Takesian argues (as we noted) that
    even though he offered "no objection," the judge gaffed by not
    instructing the jurors they had to find either that he knew about
    a currently pending administrative proceeding or that such a
    proceeding was reasonably foreseeable to him.    And by his lights,
    the prosecutors presented insufficient evidence to satisfy the
    pending/reasonably-foreseeable part of Marinello — and thus, he
    argues, the error affected his substantial rights and leaving the
    error uncorrected would seriously impair the fairness, integrity,
    or public reputation of his trial.     This is so, he says, because
    the evidence here is that (a) no one ever told him that he was the
    target of a tax investigation — indeed, IRS agent Youngquist
    actually told him at the August 2013 meeting that she was not
    investigating him; (b) the grand jury subpoenaed T & C's financial
    information not as part of any IRS investigation, but as part of
    the government's healthcare-fraud investigation into At Home VNA;
    and (c) the grand jury never subpoenaed his tax returns.
    Attempting to parry these arguments, the government
    notes that (a) the IRS began investigating Takesian in 2012; (b) he
    - 25 -
    responded to the April 2013 subpoena in the healthcare-fraud case
    by producing unfiled T & C returns; (c) he admitted that IRS agent
    Youngquist asked questions about his and T & C's returns during
    his August 2013 visit to the U.S. Attorney's office; and (d) he
    knew from Michael's March 2014 meeting with agents (who gave
    Michael a grand-jury subpoena) that he and T & C were under
    investigation as well.         And as the government sees it, regardless
    of whether the jury credited Takesian's explanations — e.g., that
    he thought the feds were building a money-laundering case against
    him — "overwhelming evidence" shows that when he "filed versions
    of [T & C's] returns and [his] amended personal returns" in July
    or August 2014, "an investigation into his and/or [T & C's] tax
    returns was at least reasonably foreseeable."                Which in the
    government's telling means that he has not shown that the error
    affected    his   substantial     rights   or   seriously   undermined    the
    fairness, integrity, or public estimation of his proceedings.
    Unconvinced    by    the   government's   reasoning,      Takesian
    argues     in   reply   that    the    government's   evidence   is    hardly
    "overwhelming," seeing how his own testimony disputed the idea
    "that he knew that he was under investigation, or that a tax
    investigation was foreseeable, and took steps to obstruct that
    investigation."
    - 26 -
    Analysis
    As the parties agree, we apply plain-error review to this
    issue, débuted here based on the intervening Marinello decision.
    See 
    Henderson, 586 U.S. at 271
    .           And as the parties also agree,
    because   of   Marinello,   the   judge    (to   quote   Takesian's   brief)
    committed an "error that was plain" by not "instruct[ing] the jury
    that it had to find that there was a pending administrative
    proceeding or that such was reasonably foreseeable to [him]."
    But the plain-error test only gives a complaining party
    a chance at a reversal.     We say "a chance" because, as noted above,
    even if he can show a pellucid error, he must still persuade us
    that the error jeopardized his substantial rights — plain error's
    step (3); and he must also convince us that the error seriously
    imperiled the fairness, integrity, or public perception of his
    trial — plain error's step (4). Then and only then will we exercise
    our discretion to correct the error.         See, e.g., 
    Puckett, 556 U.S. at 135
    ; 
    Rivera-Carrasquillo, 933 F.3d at 48
    n.14. Because Takesian
    stumbles at step (3), we start and end there.10
    10 A side note: Takesian's obstruction conviction does not
    add to his imprisonment, given that his 24-month sentence on that
    count runs concurrently with his 24-month sentences on the tax-
    fraud counts — and remember, we just upheld his tax-fraud
    convictions against a challenge premised on the judge's admitting
    the prior conviction.   Something called the concurrent-sentence
    doctrine lets circuit courts bypass challenges to a conviction's
    correctness if the defendant got a concurrent sentence on another
    - 27 -
    Binding caselaw says that a defendant must show at step
    (3) "a reasonable probability" that the flawed instruction led to
    a flawed conviction.   See United States v. Marcus, 
    560 U.S. 258
    ,
    262 (2010); see also United States v. Henry, 
    848 F.3d 1
    , 14 (1st
    Cir. 2017).   But see Ramírez-Burgos v. United States, 
    313 F.3d 23
    ,
    29 (1st Cir. 2002) (indicating that an aggrieved party can win
    reversal by showing that "the record contains evidence that could
    rationally lead to a contrary finding with respect to the omitted
    element" (quotation marks omitted)).    "A reasonable probability,"
    our judicial superiors tell us, "is a probability sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome" — i.e., it is more than a
    mere possibility, but less than a preponderance of the evidence.
    See Domínguez 
    Benítez, 542 U.S. at 83
    n.9.     And keep in mind as
    well that a reversal on instruction-error grounds is "a remedy
    valid count — a caveat being that he must suffer no "adverse
    collateral consequence" from the unreviewed conviction.        See
    United States v. McHatton, 
    16 F.3d 401
    , 
    1994 WL 41062
    , at *1 (1st
    Cir. 1994) (table) (quoting United States v. Hudacek, 
    7 F.3d 203
    ,
    204 n.1 (11th Cir. 1993)); see also generally Wayne R. LaFave et
    al., Criminal Procedure § 27.5(b) (4th ed. updated Nov. 2018)
    (discussing the doctrine in great detail). Takesian spends time
    arguing why the doctrine does not apply, and why we must therefore
    consider   his   Marinello-based   challenge  to   his   tax-fraud
    convictions. The government does not challenge Takesian on this
    front.    And so we say no more about the concurrent-sentence
    doctrine.
    - 28 -
    that is granted sparingly."      United States v. Gelin, 
    712 F.3d 612
    ,
    620 (1st Cir. 2013).
    The undisputed evidence shows that Takesian used about
    $1 million from T & C's accounts to cover his personal expenses
    (we round up to $1 million for easy reference from this point on).
    Everyone agrees that he did not report the $1 million as taxable
    income on his returns, though he had to — unless the $1 million
    was a loan to him.      But — a big "but" — he knew the $1 million was
    indeed reportable income.       And this we know because the jurors
    convicted    him   of   willfully     filing   false   personal   returns,
    something they could only do if they dismissed his loan theory as
    hooey (importantly, he does not contest these convictions on
    appeal).
    The undisputed evidence also shows that Takesian knew
    the IRS was investigating T & C's financial activities as part of
    the healthcare-fraud case against At Home VNA — an investigation
    that would foreseeably cast a very bright spotlight on the $1
    million payout, because (remember) a subpoena requested "[a]ll" of
    T & C's "corporate records and books relative to [its] financial
    transactions."     And with the IRS primed to check the flow of money
    to and from T & C, he concocted the fake loan theory to put one
    - 29 -
    over the revenuers.11    We chose each word in the last sentence
    advisedly, because (again) in convicting him of willfully filing
    false returns, the jury necessarily had to conclude that he had
    ginned up the loan idea to make the IRS think his use of the $1
    million was on the up and up.
    In   arguing   for   reversal   on   the   obstruction   count,
    Takesian hypes how his "personal tax returns were never requested";
    how an IRS agent early on said she "was not investigating" him;
    and how he "was never told he was the target of a tax investigation"
    (quotes taken from his reply brief).      But he never explains why an
    IRS investigation was not reasonably foreseeable given the special
    circumstances arrayed above — circumstances that show that when
    the IRS was investigating the money trail that could lead to him,
    he fabricated a loan story to throw the agency off the scent.       Also
    hurting him here is his testimony that he believed investigators
    put the screws on him because they thought he and Michael "were
    over paid or . . . laundering money for . . . Galatis" — of course,
    an IRS investigation can reasonably be foreseen in situations like
    those, given how "IRS special agents . . . investigate complex
    financial crimes associated with tax evasion, money laundering,"
    plus "much more."   See United States v. Pansier, No. 05-CR-272,
    11 Recall that the unobjected-to jury instruction tied the
    obstruction charge to "this business about a loan."
    - 30 -
    
    2007 WL 1728696
    , at *3 (E.D. Wis. June 13, 2007) (quotation marks
    omitted).
    The bottom line is:     Given the just-described evidence
    indicating that Takesian could reasonably foresee that an IRS
    investigation of him was (in Marinello's phrasing) "at least . . .
    in the offing," 
    see 138 S. Ct. at 1110
    , he cannot show a "reasonable
    probability" that a properly instructed jury would have acquitted
    him of the obstruction charge.          See 
    Marcus, 560 U.S. at 262
    (discussing the "reasonable probability" standard).         And he also
    cannot show that this evidence could have (in Ramírez-Burgos's
    parlance) "rationally led" a properly instructed jury to acquit
    him of that charge. 
    See 313 F.3d at 29
    (discussing the "rationally
    lead to a contrary finding" standard).           Which means that under
    either standard, he has not borne his step (3) burden of proving
    that the error affected his substantial rights.
    Enough said about this issue.
    Restitution Issue
    Last up is Takesian's claim that the judge blundered by
    imposing    the   $286,433   restitution   amount   recommended   by   the
    probation officer in her pre-sentence report ("PSR"), when the
    jury found the government's tax loss was more than $100,000 but
    less than $250,000 — an error that he alleges should force us to
    - 31 -
    vacate the restitution component of his sentence and remand for a
    recalculation.
    Setup
    At trial, the judge instructed the jury that if it found
    Takesian guilty, it should use a special verdict form to decide
    the tax-loss amount — an amount the judge described as "the
    difference between what the government actually received and what
    the government would have received had the taxes been filled out
    accurately."     "[T]he burden," the judge emphasized, "is on the
    government to prove these things beyond a reasonable doubt."      And
    on the verdict slip, the jury checked a line indicating that the
    government's tax loss was "more than $100,000 but not more than
    $250,000."12
    We should probably say a word about why the judge did
    what he did here.     The government tells us without contradiction
    that this judge's practice is to "submi[t] . . . sentencing factors
    12   The tax-loss-amount choices offered on the form were:
    ___ less than $2,500
    ___ more than $2,500 but not more than $6,500
    ___ more than $6,500 but not more than $15,000
    ___ more than $15,000 but not more than $40,000
    ___ more than $40,000 but not more than $100,000
    ___ more than $100,000 but not more than $250,000
    ___ more than $250,000 but not more than $550,000
    - 32 -
    to the jury under a beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard."              And the
    verdict form that he used listed seven tax-loss ranges — each
    corresponding to an offense level, which helps set a convicted
    person's   advisory     prison    range   under    the    federal   sentencing
    guidelines.     See USSG § 2T4.1.         No party complains about this
    procedure.    So we have no occasion to weigh in on it.
    Anyhow, relying on an agent's trial testimony, the PSR
    computed the total tax loss to be $286,433, used the $286,433
    number in calculating Takesian's guidelines prison range, and
    recommended that he pay the IRS $286,433 in restitution.13                 The
    judge at sentencing used the jury's more-than-$100,000-but-not-
    more-than-$250,000 finding to help set Takesian's prison range.
    But accepting the PSR's restitution calculation, the judge ordered
    Takesian to pay $286,433 to the IRS.
    Takesian   insists    that    given    the    jury's    beyond-a-
    reasonable-doubt finding that the tax loss did not exceed $250,000,
    the judge "abused [his] discretion" by imposing restitution that
    exceeds that number.     The government, contrastingly, contends that
    our precedent says that a judge "determining restitution under a
    preponderance standard" — which is a more-likely-than-not standard
    13For anyone wondering: the government, including the IRS,
    may be a "victim" for restitution purposes under the Mandatory
    Victims Restitution Act, 18 U.S.C. § 3663A. See United States v.
    Mei Juan Zhang, 
    789 F.3d 214
    , 216-17 (1st Cir. 2015).
    - 33 -
    — "may reach conclusions different from those found by the jury
    applying the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt."
    Analysis
    The parties fight over the proper standard of review.
    Takesian, for example, believes that he did enough below to
    preserve the argument for appeal.           So, citing United States v.
    Kearney, 
    672 F.3d 81
    , 91 (1st Cir. 2012), he thinks that we should
    review the judge's restitution order for abuse of discretion,
    inspecting his factual findings for clear error and his legal
    conclusions de novo.      The government, for its part, believes that
    his objections below were not specific enough to preserve review.
    Which, according to the government, means he must satisfy the
    difficult-to-meet plain-error test to get any relief. We, however,
    need not decide which standard applies because Takesian loses even
    under the one he champions.      See United States v. Pena, 
    910 F.3d 591
    , 603-04 (1st Cir. 2018) (taking a similar approach in a similar
    situation).
    Given   the   differing   standards   of   proof,   we   see   no
    inconsistency between the jury's finding, reflecting its view that
    a loss of no more than $250,000 was shown beyond a reasonable
    doubt, and the judge's finding, reflecting his view that a somewhat
    higher total of $286,433 was supported by a preponderance of the
    evidence.   Pena controls our decision here.       There, we rejected a
    - 34 -
    defendant's claim that the sentencer slipped by including for
    restitution purposes losses associated with counts for which the
    jury had returned not-guilty verdicts.             
    Id. at 603-04.
          Ordering
    restitution   on   those     counts    was     proper,   we   said,   because   a
    preponderance of the evidence (the standard used in arriving at a
    restitution figure) supported the restitution number.                 See 
    id. at 604
      (emphasizing    that     the     preponderance      standard    is   "less
    stringent" than the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard); see also
    United States v. Naphaeng, 
    906 F.3d 173
    , 179 (1st Cir. 2018)
    (touching on restitution and the preponderance standard).
    Takesian never argued here that the evidence did not
    suffice to allow the judge to find by a preponderance of the
    evidence that he owed $286,433 in restitution, thus waiving any
    such argument.     See, e.g., United States v. Laureano-Salgado, 
    933 F.3d 20
    , 27 n.11 (1st Cir. 2019) (discussing waiver principles);
    Rodríguez v. Municipality of San Juan, 
    659 F.3d 168
    , 175 (1st Cir.
    2011) (ditto).     And the argument he does make — that the jury's
    findings under the higher beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard tied
    the judge's hands in determining restitution under the lesser
    preponderance standard — is doomed by Pena.
    FINAL WORDS
    Our work over, we affirm the judgment entered against
    Takesian.
    - 35 -