United States v. Morales , 801 F.3d 1 ( 2015 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 13-1999
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    CHRISTIAN J. MORALES,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF RHODE ISLAND
    [Hon. William E. Smith, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Howard, Chief Judge
    Kayatta and Barron, Circuit Judges.
    K. Hayne Barnwell for appellant.
    Donald C. Lockhart, Assistant United States Attorney, with
    whom Peter F. Neronha, United States Attorney, was on brief, for
    appellee.
    August 27, 2015
    HOWARD, Chief Judge.     This appeal presents the question
    of whether a state Rhode Island conviction for first degree child
    molestation, R.I. Gen. Laws § 11-37-8.1, is "comparable to or more
    severe than" one of the offenses listed in Tier III of the federal
    Sex Offender Registration and Notification Act ("SORNA"), 42 U.S.C.
    §   16911(4).      Appellant-Defendant     Christian        Morales,     who    had
    previously      been   convicted   under   that    Rhode    Island      law,   was
    sentenced in federal court to 65 months in prison and a lifetime of
    supervised release for failing to register as a sex offender under
    SORNA, 18 U.S.C. § 2250(a).          At sentencing, the district court
    utilized the prior Rhode Island conviction to deem Morales a Tier
    III offender, resulting in a base-offense level two levels higher
    than if he had been deemed a Tier II offender.               Finding the Tier
    III designation to be plain error, we vacate Morales's prison term
    and remand for re-sentencing.
    I.
    In   December   2006,   Morales      entered    a   plea    of    nolo
    contendere to two counts of first degree child molestation in the
    state of Rhode Island.       R.I. Gen. Laws. § 11-37-8.1.          At the time
    that he committed the sexual assault, he was 18 and the victim was
    13.   The state of Rhode Island sentenced Morales to a 30-year
    incarcerative term, with all but seven years suspended.
    As a result of that sentence, Morales was required to
    register as a sex offender under SORNA.                That law classifies
    -2-
    offenders into three tiers based on the severity of the sex
    offense.    Those categories, in turn, detail the frequency and
    longevity   of   an   individual's   registration   requirements.     For
    instance, a Tier III offender must register for the remainder of
    his or her life, while a Tier II offender must register for 25
    years.   42 U.S.C. § 16915.
    In 2010, a federal grand jury indicted Morales in the
    District of Rhode Island for failing to register, and Morales
    subsequently pled guilty.        Prior to sentencing, the probation
    officer prepared a pre-sentence report classifying Morales as a
    Tier III sex offender.         U.S.S.G. §2A3.5(a) (setting the base-
    offense level at 16 for a Tier III offender, as defined in SORNA,
    rather than 14 for a Tier II offender).             The district court
    accepted this designation, which increased Morales's Guidelines
    sentence range from 46-57 months in prison to 57-71 months.
    At   sentencing,   the   court   imposed   a   mid-guidelines
    incarcerative sentence of 65 months.         With respect to supervised
    release, however, the district court emphasized Morales's behavior
    since the time of the predicate conviction (including an alleged
    sexual assault on a minor during his unregistered period) and
    concluded that a lifetime of supervised release was necessary.        At
    a subsequent hearing, the court reaffirmed its view on supervised
    release and made clear that public safety demanded an upward
    variance to the statutory maximum.
    -3-
    Morales   timely    appealed,    asserting   a   litany   of
    challenges.        Finding the Tier III contention to be the only
    arguably meritorious claim, we requested further briefing and oral
    argument solely on that issue.1
    II.
    We begin by setting forth the statutes at issue before
    delving into the merits. SORNA classifies sex offenders into three
    tiers with each category corresponding to specific, enumerated
    crimes or to offenses incorporated from other federal sexual abuse
    laws.       The most egregious offenders are grouped into Tier III.      42
    U.S.C. § 16911(4)(A).       Meanwhile, Tier II of the statute captures,
    inter alia, sexual offenses against victims aged 13 through 16 if
    the perpetrator is four or more years older than the victim.
    § 16911(3)(A)(iv).       The final category, Tier I, serves as a catch-
    all provision for convicted sex offenders not otherwise grouped
    into Tier II or Tier III.         § 16911(2).
    Most relevant for our purposes is Tier III.       This tier
    covers individuals who have committed crimes "comparable to or more
    severe than" a number of enumerated offenses.               § 16911(4)(A).
    Those offenses essentially break down into two categories.
    First, Tier III includes sexual offenses against a child
    aged 12 or under.         Part of section (i) in Tier III adopts the
    1
    We have considered Morales's additional contentions, and
    find them to be wholly unpersuasive.
    -4-
    definition of "aggravated sexual abuse" from 18 U.S.C. § 2241,
    which penalizes crossing state lines "with intent to engage in a
    sexual act with a person who has not attained the age of 12 years,"
    or       actually       engaging          in      such       conduct.
    § 16911(4)(A)(i) (incorporating § 2241).         Also included in this
    category, from section (ii) of Tier III, is "abusive sexual contact
    . . . against a minor who has not attained the age of 13 years."
    § 16911(4)(A)(ii) (incorporating 18 U.S.C. § 2243(a)).           "Abusive
    sexual contact" is defined as any sexual offense against a 12 year
    old if the perpetrator is 16 years or older.          
    Id. Second, Tier
      III   encompasses   sex   offenses   that   are
    committed with force, result in additional harm, or are perpetrated
    against particularly vulnerable victims.          These offenses, also
    found in section (i), incorporate other aspects of "abusive sexual
    contact" from 18 U.S.C. § 2241, along with "sexual abuse" as
    defined in 18 U.S.C. § 2242.2
    2
    These crimes include: causing another to engage in a sexual
    act "by using force . . . or by threatening that other person" with
    force, § 2241(a); knowingly rendering a person unconscious or
    drugging that individual and then engaging in a sexual act with him
    or her, § 2241(b); or, engaging or attempting to engage in abuse
    defined in § 2241(a)&(b) with a person between the ages of 12 and
    15 if the perpetrator is four years older than the victim, § 2241©.
    § 16911(4)(A)(i). This category also includes forcing "another
    person to engage in a sexual act by threatening or placing that
    other person in fear" or engaging in a sexual act with a victim if
    such an individual is "incapable of appraising the nature of the
    conduct; or physically incapable of declining participation in, or
    communicating unwillingness to engage in, that sexual act."       §
    16911(4)(A)(i) (incorporating 18 U.S.C. § 2242).
    -5-
    The final statute of interest is the source of Morales's
    predicate conviction.   That Rhode Island law merely states, "A
    person is guilty of first degree child molestation sexual assault
    if he or she engages in sexual penetration with a person fourteen
    (14) years of age or under."   R.I. Gen. Laws. § 11-37-8.1.
    III.
    Given the lack of an objection below, the parties agree
    that our review is for plain error only.   This requires Morales to
    show that "(1) an error occurred which was (2) clear or obvious and
    which not only (3) affected his substantial rights, but also (4)
    seriously impaired the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    the judicial proceedings."   United States v. Tavares, 
    705 F.3d 4
    ,
    16 (1st Cir. 2013) (citation omitted).   We begin by asking whether
    any error occurred.
    i.
    Morales contends that it was error for the district court
    to enhance his offense level based on a Tier III designation, since
    his Rhode Island conviction was not "comparable to or more severe
    than" any offense listed in that section of SORNA. Our analysis of
    this argument proceeds in two steps.       First, we must ask what
    analytical approach applies to this comparative inquiry.   Second,
    under that framework, we must then determine whether the specific
    Rhode Island law that Morales was convicted under is, in fact,
    "comparable to or more severe than" any offense in Tier III.
    -6-
    a.
    The threshold question in this case is whether our
    comparison of the statutes is limited to the elements of each crime
    or whether we can account for Morales's specific conduct when
    determining whether he is a Tier III offender.               At its core, this
    requires us to give some meaning to the term "offense" as it is
    utilized in Tier III of the SORNA statute.             The Supreme Court has
    provided significant guidance on how to answer this question.
    In Descamps v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 2276
    (2013), the
    Court described the analytical framework for comparing a state
    predicate offense with the generic crimes listed in the Armed
    Career   Criminal   Act   ("ACCA").        Key    to   its    decision   was   a
    distinction between indivisible statutes (those not containing
    alternative elements) and divisible statutes (those providing
    alternative elements).     For the latter set of statutes, limited
    factual consideration is appropriate to determine under which
    portion of the statute the offense lies.
    However, for indivisible predicate statutes, like the
    Rhode Island law at issue here, the comparison must be limited
    solely to the elements of the crimes.            The Court emphasized three
    main justifications for this.         
    Descamps, 133 S. Ct. at 2287-89
    ,
    citing Taylor v. United States, 
    496 U.S. 575
    (1990).               First, the
    text of the ACCA, using the term "convictions" rather than a phrase
    such as "has committed," implied that Congress was focused on a
    -7-
    defendant's convictions irrespective of the underlying facts.
    Descamps, 133. S.Ct. at 2287-88; contra Nijhawan v. Holder, 
    557 U.S. 29
    (2009) (where the statute's requirement of a loss exceeding
    $10,000 called for an inquiry into the specific circumstances
    leading to the offense).         Second, the Court was concerned that
    fact-finding on the predicate offense could run afoul of the Sixth
    Amendment right to a jury trial.          
    Descamps, 133 S. Ct. at 2288-89
    .
    Finally, such a categorical approach eschewed the possibility of
    any mini- or collateral-trial at sentencing to probe the predicate
    offense.      
    Id. at 2289.
    At least two of these considerations strongly militate
    towards adopting the same method in this context.           First, the text
    yields the same result.       Certainly, the word "offense" itself does
    not provide us the same clarity as the use of the word "conviction"
    in the ACCA, see 
    Nijhawan, 557 U.S. at 33-34
    ; see also Black's Law
    Dictionary (9th ed. 2009) (defining offense as "violation of the
    law; a crime"), but we have recently ascribed meaning to that word
    in the context of the sexual abuse statutory scheme.                 In United
    States   v.    Jones,   
    748 F.3d 64
      (1st   Cir.   2014),   a   defendant
    challenged his life sentence, imposed under 18 U.S.C. § 2241©
    (providing the definition of aggravated sexual assault incorporated
    into the Tier III statute).           To determine whether an enhanced
    sentence under that statute was appropriate as a result of a
    predicate sexual offense, we asked whether a state law penalizing
    -8-
    sexual penetration with a victim under 13 (Jones's predicate crime)
    "would have been an offense" under federal law (§ 2241©).    
    Id. at 73-74.
    After citing Descamps, we determined that "offense" in this
    context was limited to the "state court judgment and the statute of
    conviction -- not at what [the defendant] did to trigger the
    statute's application."    
    Id. at 73.
      In other words, we adopted a
    categorical approach.
    We see no reason to depart from that understanding of
    "offense."    It is axiomatic that when considering two statutes on
    the same subject "courts construe words or phrases from a prior act
    on the same subject in the same sense," Sutherland Statutory
    Construction § 51:2 (7th ed.), and that "identical words used in
    different parts of the same act are intended to have the same
    meaning," Dep't of Revenue of Or. v. ACF Indus., Inc., 
    510 U.S. 332
    , 342 (1994) (citation omitted).        Here, the SORNA statute
    explicitly incorporates § 2241(c) and both sections use the term
    "offense" in precisely the same way; they each mandate a comparison
    of a predicate state offense with the federal law. The government,
    perhaps recognizing this, does not provide any reason to avoid this
    consistent reading.     Instead, it merely adds a footnote in its
    brief saying that "some courts have expressed doubt about whether
    the so-called 'categorical approach' even applies in this setting."
    Absent any justification to find otherwise, Jones answers this
    textual question. Since it limits "offense" to the elements of the
    -9-
    crime, this Descamps consideration implores us to follow the
    categorical approach.
    The third Descamps consideration, the need to avoid
    collateral trials about the factual grounding of the predicate
    offense, is also directly relevant. There, relying on its previous
    explanation in Taylor, the Court maintained that requiring a
    district court to delve into the facts of a predicate offense could
    turn into a daunting task.   Indeed,
    In some cases, the indictment or other
    charging paper might reveal the theory or
    theories of the case presented to the jury.
    In other cases, however, only the Government's
    actual proof at trial would indicate whether
    the defendant's conduct constituted [the
    offense]. Would the Government be permitted
    to introduce the trial transcript before the
    sentencing court, or if no transcript is
    available, present the testimony of witnesses?
    Could the defense present witnesses of its own
    and argue that the jury might have returned a
    guilty verdict on some theory that did not
    require a finding that the defendant committed
    the [generic offense]?
    
    Taylor, 495 U.S. at 601
    .   Relatedly, the Court observed that where
    a defendant pleads to a lesser included offense of one listed in
    the ACCA, this fact-intensive approach could subject a defendant to
    a mini-trial on, and an enhanced punishment from, that broader
    crime.   
    Id. In effect,
    this could deprive him or her of the
    benefit of the plea bargain.
    Not much more need be said here, as a similar concern
    also points to the answer in this case.       Under a fact-centric
    -10-
    analysis, an equally intensive investigation could be required to
    determine whether a defendant's predicate actions fall within the
    Tier III category.     Although it is plausible that the issue could
    be resolved from the plea agreement, plea colloquy, or judgment
    alone, it is also conceivable that the court would need to review
    the entire record.      As the Court in Taylor noted, it could even
    require further factual development outside of the initial trial
    record.   This is particularly concerning in this context where
    requiring the victim to testify again could increase the likelihood
    of secondary trauma.        See, e.g., L. Christine Brannon, The Trauma
    of Testifying in Court for Child Victims of Sexual Assault v. the
    Accused's Right to Confrontation, 18 Law & Psychol. Rev. 439
    (1994).   Finally, depending on the nature of the defendant's plea
    to the underlying offense, the approach could also render his or
    her bargain meaningless.
    Ultimately, limiting our analysis to the elements of
    indivisible state predicate offenses, along with the generic crimes
    referenced    in   SORNA,    best   comports   with   the   Supreme   Court's
    considerations in Descamps.         Indeed, we are not alone in reaching
    this conclusion.     See United States v. Backus, 550 Fed. App'x 260
    (6th Cir. 2014) (applying the categorical approach to the SORNA
    context); United States v. Cabrera-Gutierrez, 
    756 F.3d 1125
    (9th
    Cir. 2013) (same); see also United States v. Forster, 549 Fed.
    App'x 757 (10th Cir. 2013) (casting some doubt on the approach but
    -11-
    applying it nonetheless); contra United States v. Gonzalez-Medina,
    
    757 F.3d 425
    (5th Cir. 2014) (applying a fact-based approach when
    comparing an "age differential" distinction between a state and
    federal statute).         Therefore, our analysis will be limited solely
    to the elements of the relevant statutes.3
    b.
    The heart of this case turns on whether the Rhode Island
    law is "comparable to or more severe than" any of the SORNA Tier
    III   offenses.          At   its   core,   Tier    III    breaks   down    into   two
    categories: (1) offenses that apply irrespective of the victim's
    age -- i.e., if the offense either includes some additional conduct
    or    harm,   or    is    committed    against      a     particularly     vulnerable
    individual,        § 16911(4)(A)(i); and, (2) any sexual crime against a
    victim 12 or under, § 16911(4)(A)(i)-(ii).                       We address each
    category in turn.
    Initially, Tier III applies in a number of situations
    irrespective of the victim's age.                  Specifically, it applies to
    3
    Despite its tepid argument against the categorical
    approach, the government vigorously insists that the phrase
    "comparable to" should have broad meaning. Morales, meanwhile,
    argues for a narrower construction of the term, similar to that
    given by two other circuits. See Backus, 550 Fed. App'x at 263
    (defining "comparable" as "prohibit[ing] the same activity);
    
    Cabrera-Guiterrez, 756 F.3d at 1133-34
    (stating that a statute that
    covers more activity than the federal statute is not comparable to
    the federal law). We need not decide this issue. Instead, we
    conclude that, no matter what the precise meaning of the term, the
    Rhode Island offense in question is not "comparable to" the federal
    offenses listed in Tier III.
    -12-
    offenders who engage in certain, additional conduct (other than the
    sexual act alone) in the course of committing the crime; who
    inflict some additional harm during the offense; or who abuse a
    specified victim. § 16911(4)(A)(i) (enumerating these offenses and
    including: offenders who commit the crime utilizing force or the
    threats of force, offenders who commit the crime against an
    unconscious victim, or offenders who commit the crime against a
    victim who is incapable of appraising the nature of the conduct).
    The Rhode Island statute lacks analogous characteristics.
    Instead, it contains only two elements: the sexual act and the age
    of the victim.   It does not include additional elements such as
    threats or force, nor does it narrowly protect specific classes of
    victims in a comparable fashion.      Quite simply, the Rhode Island
    law in this case penalizes significantly broader behavior than this
    category of Tier III offenses.4
    Our examination continues, however, since Tier III also
    encompasses any sexual act against a victim aged 12 or under.
    Specifically, section (ii) of Tier III includes offenses where the
    victim is 12 years old or under and the perpetrator is at least
    four years older, § 16911(4)(A)(ii), and section (i) (in addition
    to the crimes previously discussed) includes offenses where the
    4
    We also note that other sections of Rhode Island law do
    proscribe force or additional harm in this context. See, e.g.,
    R.I. Gen. Laws § 11-37-2.      This evidences the legislature's
    capacity to target such activity when it so intends.
    -13-
    perpetrator crosses state lines with the intent to engage in sexual
    conduct, or actually does engage in such conduct, if the individual
    is under the age of 12, § 16911(4)(A)(i).                         Such crimes are
    considered so severe that, without anything more, they warrant Tier
    III designation.
    The    government   anchors      its   argument      in    the   latter,
    section (i) crime.       It emphasizes that section (i) of the statute
    penalizes the mere intent to sexually abuse an individual under 12
    (together with the actus reus of crossing state lines), while Rhode
    Island penalizes more severe conduct: an actual sexual act.                      The
    government simply views the difference in the age cut-offs as
    inconsequential.
    The    government's      position      runs   head     first     into   a
    congressional       judgment   that    lies   at    the    core    of   the    tiered
    framework.         The structure of the law makes clear that while
    "comparable to" may, as the government argues, provide us some
    flexibility in examining the offenses, the question of age is so
    essential to the framework that the congressional cut-off must be
    strictly construed.       See Saysana v. Gillen, 
    590 F.3d 7
    , 13 (1st
    Cir. 2009) (stating that the meaning "of a statutory provision is
    often made clear not only by the words of the statute but by its
    structure as well"). This is manifested by the distinctions within
    section (i) of Tier III, by the interplay of section (i) and (ii),
    and by the differences between Tier II and Tier III.
    -14-
    First, the structure of section (i) of Tier III implies
    that this congressional line-drawing was critical.                 At the risk of
    repetition, Congress determined that the intent to abuse a victim
    under 12 (or actually doing so) warrants Tier III classification.
    But, where a victim is any other age, Congress made a different
    statement; although the conduct may be severe, without additional
    evidence of other conduct or harm (such as threats or force), or
    some other particularly vulnerable attribute about the victim (such
    as being unable to comprehend what was happening), only Tier II
    applies. Thus, for crimes against victims over 12, only additional
    conduct,     or     a    more    vulnerable     victim,      renders   the   crime
    commensurate with an offense against a victim under that age.
    Comparing the different sub-sections in Tier III yields
    the same conclusion.            Section (i) of Tier III already covers all
    conduct     where       the   victim    is    under   12.      §   16911(4)(A)(i)
    (incorporating 18 U.S.C. § 2241(c) ("intent to engage in . . . [or]
    knowingly engages in a sexual act with another person who has not
    attained the age of 12.")).            Section (ii) adds only one additional
    class of offenses: specified sexual abuse against 12 year old
    children.     § 16911(4)(A)(ii).             If the age limit in section (i)
    could be disregarded, as the government suggests, then a state
    crime penalizing a sexual act against a 12 year old would already
    be captured by section (i) of Tier III.                     This would leave the
    second sub-section of Tier III without any purpose.                 See Duncan v.
    -15-
    Walker, 
    533 U.S. 167
    , 174 (2001) (noting the importance of giving
    every word or section in a statute meaning when possible).
    The    differences    across   the   tier    hierarchy   further
    underscore         the     age      distinction's            importance.
    compare § 16911(3)(A)(iv) with § 16911(4)(A).           If a person engages
    in sexual conduct against a victim 16 or under and is convicted
    under a state's general statutory rape law, Tier II status is
    imposed.    § 16911(3)(A)(iv).       If the victim is 12 or under,
    however,   then    the   same    exact    conduct      warrants   Tier   III
    classification.     In crafting this law, Congress plainly did not
    envision placing every offender who violated any statutory rape law
    under the Tier III umbrella.        But, here, too, the government's
    position would likely do just that.         Indeed, it would raise the
    question of whether Tier III applied to a violation of any state's
    statutory rape law.      By moving a significant number of Tier II
    offenders into Tier III in this way, an entire section of Tier II
    could thus be left without any purpose.
    Nor is the tier system the only place that Congress
    emphasized this age distinction in the sexual abuse statutory
    regime. See Util. Air Regulatory Grp. v. EPA, 
    134 S. Ct. 2427
    , 2442
    (2014) (noting that a provision in a statute must be read in the
    broader context of the law); Robinson v. Shell Oil Co., 
    519 U.S. 337
    , 342-45 (1997) (trying to decipher the meaning of a term by
    examining its usage in other provisions in the statute).                 For
    -16-
    example, Congress specifically enhanced the penalty for "offenses
    involving young children."           18 U.S.C. § 2244(c).           In that law,
    Congress said that if a victim had not attained the age of 12 "the
    maximum term of imprisonment that may be imposed for the offense
    shall be twice that otherwise provided in this section."                    
    Id. The purpose
    of that enhancement, Congress specifically noted, was its
    concern over an increase in abuse (roughly one-third of all sexual
    offenses) against children 11 and under.                H.R. Rep. No. 105-557
    (1998).    This suggests that Congress was not setting an arbitrary
    age limit, but was intentionally drawing a line at that specific
    age.
    Ultimately, the age of the victim is a critical component
    of the tier system.       Although it now sings a different tune, even
    the government has acknowledged this fact.                  As the Department of
    Justice ("DOJ") noted in its own guidelines implementing the law,
    the tier designation increases requirements corresponding to a
    number of factors, most prominently, "the nature and seriousness of
    the    offense,   the   age   of   the    victim,     and    the   extent    of   the
    offender's recidivism."            National Guidelines for Sex Offender
    Registration and Notification, 73 Fed. Reg. 38,030 (July 2, 2008)
    (emphasis added).       The DOJ seems to accept the idea, which we also
    adopt,    that    the   victim's    age    is   one    of    the   core     elements
    distinguishing the tiers in SORNA.           Given that, a state law simply
    -17-
    does not target comparatively grave conduct when it fails to
    include the same age cut-off.
    The Rhode Island law at issue here is significantly
    broader than a Tier III offense, since the state law penalizes
    sexual conduct alone -- without anything more -- against victims
    over the congressionally-designated age of 12.                  Although Rhode
    Island can certainly draw the line at 14 when crafting its own laws
    and   setting   its   own    registration       requirements,    it   does   not
    necessarily     follow      that     specific   federal    requirements      are
    automatically triggered.            Where a distinction exists on such a
    foundational issue, we cannot consider the two laws comparable.
    Admittedly, this would be a different case if the Rhode Island
    statute required proof of some additional harm (even if it defined
    the harm differently than the federal statute) to victims over 12,
    since it would then mirror Congress's judgment on this crucial
    point.    See, e.g., N.H. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 632-A:2(I); M.G.L. ch.
    265 § 23A.      It would also be a different case if Rhode Island
    changed its laws to penalize sexual conduct against any individual
    12 or under, as there would then be overlap with the federal
    scheme.   See, e.g., Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 17 § 253(1)(c); N.H.
    Rev. Stat. Ann § 632-A:2(I)(l)&(II).            It might even be a different
    case if the Rhode Island law under which Morales was convicted
    specifically    sanctioned         abuse   against   victims   with   a   mental
    capacity equivalent to a child 12 or under, as that might indicate
    -18-
    an attempt to regulate equivalent harm.    But, in penalizing sexual
    conduct alone against older victims, the law sweeps far too broadly
    in terms of the severity of the offenses it covers to be a Tier III
    congener.5
    Accordingly, the Rhode Island law cannot be read to be
    "comparable to or more severe than" any SORNA Tier III offense.
    Thus, the district court erred when it characterized Morales as a
    Tier III sex offender.
    ii.
    Although we find error, our analysis does not end there.
    Instead, Morales must still establish the other prongs of plain
    error.   First, he must show that the error was "plain."    In other
    words, it must be "clear" or "obvious."        See United States v.
    5
    Although the government focuses on the section (i) intent
    crime, the importance of the age distinction would apply equally
    when comparing the Rhode Island statute to the offenses barred in
    section (ii) of Tier III (sexual conduct against a 12 year old
    child). However, we could potentially resolve that section (ii)
    comparison in another way.     Unlike the offenses listed in sub-
    section (i), sub-section (ii) could either be read as a single unit
    (i.e. finding that "is comparable to or more severe than" applies
    to the entire section), or it could be read as two separate clauses
    ("is comparable to or more severe than . . . abusive sexual
    contact" and is "against a minor who has not attained the age of 13
    years.") Under the latter approach, the "comparable to" language
    might not apply to the age limit and thus that clause could be read
    as a stand-alone requirement.      Courts could then engage in a
    factual inquiry into the victim's actual age when considering
    whether an offense matched sub-section (ii) of Tier III. Because
    the victim of the underlying crimes for which Morales was convicted
    was 13, we need not make that determination, since we would reach
    the same result regardless of which analytical framework applied to
    that one specific clause of Tier III.
    -19-
    Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 734 (1993).   The government contends that we
    have never interpreted the SORNA tier regime in this context and
    that the conclusion we reach today is far from self-evident.
    The plainness of an error is considered at the time of an
    appeal, and we thus account for developments in the law even if the
    district court did not have the benefit of those changes.      See
    Henderson v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 1121
    , 1124-25 (2013); United
    States v. Farrell, 
    672 F.3d 27
    , 36 (1st Cir. 2012).    Despite the
    implication of the government's argument, the absence of a decision
    directly on point does not remove the potential for a finding of
    plain error.   Instead, the inquiry is always whether the error is
    open to doubt or question.     See 
    Henderson, 133 S. Ct. at 1130
    ("'[P]lain' means that lower court decisions that are questionable
    but not plainly wrong . . . fall outside the Rule's scope.");
    Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 143 (2009).
    Two interwoven aspects of the error here make it "plain."
    First, although the district court in this case should have
    conducted some analysis given Descamps, it was our recent decision
    in Jones that settled the matter definitively. With that case, one
    the district court did not have the benefit of reviewing, it became
    sufficiently clear that the Descamps analytical framework applied
    to the tier structure at issue.
    Second, with the Jones decision in place (and assuming,
    arguendo, that the government's broader conception of "comparable
    -20-
    to" applies) all this case then required was a comparison of the
    federal and state law.      Although we have engaged in a thorough
    examination, even a cursory review of the statutes illustrates the
    importance of the age issue in the federal law and the breadth of
    the Rhode Island statute in comparison.           See United States v.
    Dávila-Félix, 
    667 F.3d 47
    , 54-57 (1st Cir. 2011) (finding plain
    error despite undertaking a significant legal analysis asking
    whether a prior conviction qualified as a predicate offense for
    sentencing enhancement purposes).       Simply put, no faithful reading
    of the elements of the statutes, as our analysis shows, could lead
    one to conclude that Morales was a Tier III offender.          Thus, given
    the framework mandated by Jones, and the clarity with which
    Congress spoke in SORNA, it was sufficiently obvious that Morales
    was incorrectly classified as a Tier III offender.
    Morales must next show that the error affected his
    substantial     rights.    In   other    words,   it   "must   have   been
    prejudicial."     
    Olano, 507 U.S. at 734
    .     Here, it is important to
    distinguish Morales's incarcerative sentence from his supervised
    release term. As to the former, this case is somewhat analogous to
    others where much is at stake (for example, when an armed career
    criminal designation plays a role) and plain error is found because
    the district court erroneously considered a prior conviction to be
    a predicate offense. See United States v. Torres-Rosario, 
    658 F.3d 110
    , 116 (1st Cir. 2011). As we noted in Torres-Rosario, "district
    -21-
    courts have regained considerable discretion in sentencing but the
    guidelines are still highly influential."               
    Id. Thus, where
    the
    guidelines are augmented because the court improperly considers a
    prior conviction to be a predicate offense, we must, at a minimum,
    be on alert to the presence of prejudice.
    In this case, the district court seemingly followed the
    guidelines, and imposed an incarcerative sentence directly in the
    middle of the range.         Given the district court's focus on the
    supervised release term rather than on the incarcerative sentence,
    we are unable to say with sufficient confidence that the erroneous
    guidelines range did not single-handedly drive the district court's
    incarcerative sentencing decision. ("Now, the enhancement puts you
    in a guideline range of 57 to 71 months.          If you are truly a child
    abuser, then the difference between 57, 60, 65, 71 months just
    keeps you off the street for a few more months, and eventually
    you're going to return to society.           So just as important as the
    prison term, it seems to me, are the terms of your release.")
    Given the apparent role that the incorrect guideline range played,
    and the reasonable probability that a different sentence will be
    imposed, remand is appropriate.             See, e.g., United States v.
    Antonakopoulos, 
    399 F.3d 68
    , 81 (1st Cir. 2005) (noting with
    respect to a Booker error that "[e]ven in cases where the judge was
    silent,   there   may   be   cases   in   which   the    appellate   panel   is
    -22-
    convinced by the defendant based on the facts of the case that the
    sentence would, with reasonable probability, have been different").
    Although Morales has shown that his substantial rights
    were affected as to his prison term, he cannot show prejudice with
    respect to his supervised release sentence.                At the initial
    sentencing, the district court noted that a lifetime of supervised
    release was required because Morales was a recidivist and the
    public needed to be protected.       After the initial sentencing, the
    government informed the court that it had changed it position.           It
    believed that the guidelines called for a maximum of five years of
    supervised release even though the statute permitted the court to
    vary upwards to a lifetime sentence.         At a subsequent hearing, the
    court again emphasized that public safety concerns mandated the
    lifetime order and it thus reaffirmed that part of its decision.
    Nothing from either proceeding indicates that the tier designation
    played any role in this part of the sentence, and we see no reason
    to disrupt it.6
    Morales   must   finally    show    that   the   error   seriously
    impaired the fairness, integrity, or reputation of the judicial
    proceedings.   In other words, he must show that there is "a threat
    6
    Although we do not find that the plain error standard has
    been met with respect to supervised release, determining the
    appropriate balance of an incarcerative term and supervised release
    is an exercise committed to the sound discretion of the district
    court. The district judge should therefore be permitted, but not
    required, to revisit the supervised release aspect of the sentence
    on remand.
    -23-
    of injustice if we affirm."      United States v. Rodriguez, 
    630 F.3d 39
    , 42-43 (1st Cir. 2010).      Given the significant possibility that
    Morales   will   receive   a   reduced    sentence   upon   remand   with   a
    different base-offense level, and since SORNA imposes enhanced,
    lifelong requirements for Tier III offenders, such a threat does
    exist without correcting this error.         Nor, we note, is there any
    injustice to the government from a remand.           See United States v.
    Ramos-Gonzales, 
    775 F.3d 483
    , 507-08 (1st Cir. 2015) ("To the
    extent relevant to the plain error inquiry, the government asserts
    no offsetting circumstances.")      Since the error was one purely of
    law, the government faced no undue prejudice in responding to the
    argument for the first time on appeal.         Moreover, the government
    faces no significant harm moving forward, as it can still argue for
    an upward variance upon remand.
    Ultimately, this is one of the rare cases in which the
    plain error review standards have been satisfied and a remand to
    correct the mistake of law is required.
    IV.
    As the district court committed plain error when it
    characterized Morales as a Tier III sex offender and when it then
    utilized that designation in its guidelines calculation, we vacate
    the sentence with respect to Morales's prison term and remand for
    proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    -24-