Local No. 8 IBEW Retirement Pl v. Vertex Pharmaceuticals, Inc. , 838 F.3d 76 ( 2016 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 15-2250
    LOCAL NO. 8 IBEW RETIREMENT PLAN & TRUST, on behalf of itself
    and all others similarly situated,
    Plaintiff, Appellant,
    v.
    VERTEX PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.; JOSHUA BOGER, Ph.D.; JEFFREY
    LEIDEN, Ph.D.; PETER MUELLER, Ph.D.; PAUL SILVA; ELAINE ULLIAN;
    NANCY J. WYSENSKI,
    Defendants, Appellees.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. F. Dennis Saylor IV, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Torruella, Kayatta, and Barron,
    Circuit Judges.
    Amanda F. Lawrence, with whom David R. Scott, Joseph P.
    Guglielmo, Beth A. Kaswan, Donald A. Broggi, and Scott + Scott,
    Attorneys at Law, LLP, were on brief, for appellant.
    John F. Sylvia, with whom Andrew Nathanson, Matthew D. Levitt,
    Rebecca L. Zeidel, and Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and
    Popeo, P.C., were on brief, for appellees.
    October 3, 2016
    KAYATTA, Circuit Judge.           During the course of clinical
    trials for an experimental drug combination intended to treat a
    fatal       lung    disease,    Vertex    Pharmaceuticals,    Inc.   ("Vertex")
    announced interim results that overstated the improvement in lung
    function exhibited in a group of patients receiving the combination
    treatment.         Following this announcement, Vertex's stock price rose
    from $37.41 per share to close at $64.85 three weeks later.                  It
    then lost some of its gain, dropping to $57.80, after Vertex
    corrected the initial release's overstatement.                Acting on behalf
    of all those who acquired Vertex stock during the period in which
    the overstatement stood uncorrected, Local No. 8 IBEW Retirement
    Plan & Trust ("Local No. 8") filed this securities fraud class
    action complaint against Vertex and six past and current Vertex
    employees.         The district court dismissed the complaint, finding
    that it failed to create a strong inference that the defendants
    had acted with scienter, the requisite mental state.                 See Local
    No. 8 IBEW Ret. Plan v. Vertex Pharm., Inc., 
    140 F. Supp. 3d 120
    ,
    137 (D. Mass. 2015).           We agree and so affirm.
    I.     Background1
    As one of the world's largest biotechnology companies,
    Vertex researches, develops, and sells treatments for a variety of
    1
    Because Local No. 8 appeals from a judgment granting the
    defendants' motion to dismiss, we take the facts alleged in the
    complaint as true and draw all reasonable inferences from those
    - 2 -
    ailments.    In 1998, Vertex began working on drugs to combat cystic
    fibrosis, a fatal and as yet incurable lung disease.                  In early
    2012 it gained Food and Drug Administration ("FDA") approval to
    market a drug, Kalydeco, to treat patients with a rare form of the
    disease.    This approval, along with a contemporaneous drop in the
    value of Vertex's stock due to Vertex's diminishing returns from
    another product line, prompted Vertex to focus its energies on
    developing a more broadly marketable cystic fibrosis treatment.
    In pursuit of this aim, Vertex explored a "combination
    therapy," in which a cystic fibrosis patient first undergoes a
    course of treatment with an experimental drug called VX-809 and
    only then begins taking Kalydeco.           Hoping that this combination
    would be effective against the most common form of cystic fibrosis,
    Vertex began a three-phase clinical investigation required for FDA
    approval.    See N.J. Carpenters Pension & Annuity Funds v. Biogen
    IDEC Inc., 
    537 F.3d 35
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2008) (describing the FDA
    approval process); 
    21 C.F.R. § 312.21
     (describing the three phases
    of clinical investigation). On May 7, 2012, while the second phase
    of   this   process   was    ongoing,   Vertex   issued   a   press    release
    announcing interim results drawn from roughly half of the 108
    enrolled patients.2         The press release focused in particular on
    facts in favor of Local No. 8. See In re Bos. Sci. Corp. Sec.
    Litig., 
    686 F.3d 21
    , 27 (1st Cir. 2012).
    2Phase 2 trials are typically closely controlled, small-
    scale studies designed to evaluate an experimental treatment's
    - 3 -
    one of the principal markers used to evaluate the effectiveness of
    a cystic fibrosis treatment:        lung function, as measured by the
    amount of air a patient is capable of exhaling in one second.
    According to the press release,
    [o]f those who received [the combination
    therapy], approximately 46 percent (17/37)
    experienced an absolute improvement from
    baseline to Day 56 [of the trial period] in
    lung function of 5 percentage points or more,
    and   approximately    30   percent    (11/37)
    experienced an absolute improvement from
    baseline to Day 56 of 10 percentage points or
    more.    None of the patients treated with
    placebo (0/11) achieved a 5-percentage point
    or more improvement from baseline to Day 56 in
    lung function.
    The   press   release   described    these   results   as   "exceed[ing]
    [Vertex's] expectations," although it cautioned that "complete
    data" were not yet available and that "the final outcomes of this
    clinical trial or future clinical trials . . . may be less
    favorable than the interim analysis reported today, or may not be
    favorable at all."3
    efficacy, as well as its short-term side effects and potential
    risks. See 
    21 C.F.R. § 312.21
    (b).
    3Although the text of the press release was not incorporated
    into Local No. 8's complaint and was instead submitted by the
    defendants in support of their motion to dismiss, we may--as the
    district court did--nevertheless consider it at this stage because
    it is referenced in the complaint, it is central to Local No. 8's
    claim, and no party disputes its authenticity. See Schaefer v.
    Indymac Mortg. Servs., 
    731 F.3d 98
    , 100 n.1 (1st Cir. 2013). We
    also consider the subsequent press releases issued by Vertex on
    May 29, 2012 and June 28, 2012, both of which were submitted to
    the court below without objection.
    - 4 -
    The same day, Vertex held a conference call for media
    and investors.         On the call, Vertex's Executive Vice President and
    Chief Scientific Officer, Peter Mueller ("Mueller"), described the
    interim results as "really, really fantastic" and went on to say,
    "I have never seen anything like this."                Vertex's Chief Executive
    Officer          ("CEO"),    Jeffrey     Leiden    ("Leiden"),        also    expressed
    confidence in the results, saying that they were "driving us
    to . . . plan for potential market entries sooner than we had
    previously planned" and that, "[p]ending final data this summer
    and discussions with regulators, we look forward to accelerating
    the development of our [cystic fibrosis] combination regimen."
    Nancy       Wysenski        ("Wysenski"),    at     that     time     Vertex's      Chief
    Commercial Officer and Executive Vice President, further noted
    that       the    number    of    patients   who   stood     to    benefit    from   the
    combination treatment under review exceeded 70,000--a market that
    could translate into billions of dollars in potential sales.4
    Vertex's        stock   price     swiftly        responded    to    the
    announcement of the promising interim results.                       On May 7, 2012,
    the day of the announcement, Vertex stock closed at $58.12 per
    share--up from the prior close of $37.41, with a trading volume
    4
    Vertex's Chief Financial Officer confirmed in a call the
    following day that "the data [were] beyond our expectations" and
    that Vertex sought "to drive . . . quickly into" the next phase of
    the clinical investigation in order to "get to . . . patients as
    fast as possible with this combination therapy."
    - 5 -
    forty times higher than average.         By May 25, 2012, the closing
    price had risen to $64.85 per share.            Meanwhile, five Vertex
    employees    named   as   defendants     in   this   suit--Joshua   Boger
    ("Boger"), then Vertex's Director; Paul Silva ("Silva"), who had
    formerly    served   as   Vertex's     Vice   President   and   Corporate
    Controller; Elaine Ullian ("Ullian"), Vertex's co-lead independent
    director; Mueller; and Wysenski--sold a total of 539,313 shares of
    Vertex stock, collecting almost $32 million in all.
    On May 29, 2012, Vertex announced in a press release
    that the interim results that had so energized its market prospects
    had overstated the improvement in lung function exhibited among
    the Phase 2 patients receiving the combination treatment.            The
    error, as Vertex acknowledged that day in a conference call,
    stemmed from a "misinterpretation" as to whether the results Vertex
    had received from the third-party statistical analysis vendor
    reflected the absolute improvement in the patients' lung function
    or, rather, the improvement relative to the patients' baseline
    levels of lung function.5    When evaluated properly, Vertex's press
    release explained, the data showed that 35 percent of the patients
    5 According to the complaint, a relative improvement means "a
    percentage change from baseline," whereas an absolute improvement
    is "the numerical distance between the baseline measurement and
    the improved measurement." For our purposes, it appears that we
    need only understand the distinction to mean that an absolute
    improvement is more favorable than a relative improvement of the
    same percentage.
    - 6 -
    taking the combination treatment (rather than 46 percent, as had
    initially been reported experienced an absolute improvement of 5
    percent or more, and that 19 percent (rather than 30 percent, as
    had initially been reported) experienced an absolute improvement
    of 10 percent or more.            Immediately following the announcement of
    the    corrected        results,       the    closing       price    of      Vertex     stock
    experienced its greatest decline in three years, dropping to $57.80
    per share, down from $64.85 per share on May 25, yet still well up
    from the May 4 close of $37.41.
    Just short of two years later, Local No. 8 filed a class-
    action    complaint       against       Vertex--as          well    as    Boger,      Leiden,
    Mueller, Silva, Ullian, and Wysenski--on behalf of all those who,
    like     Local    No.     8,     had    acquired       Vertex       stock     between     the
    announcement of the overstated interim results on May 7, 2012, and
    the announcement of the corrected results on May 29, 2012.                                The
    complaint      charged     all    defendants         with    securities       fraud     under
    section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934 ("Exchange
    Act"),    15     U.S.C.    §   78j(b),       and     the    Securities       and   Exchange
    Commission's Rule 10b-5, 
    17 C.F.R. § 240
    .10b-5.                           It also charged
    the six individual defendants with joint and several liability
    under section 20(a) of the Exchange Act, 15 U.S.C. § 78t(a), for
    the alleged securities fraud, on the theory that these defendants
    "controlled        Vertex,         and/or        controlled          other      Individual
    Defendants";       and    charged       Boger,       Mueller,      Silva,     Ullian,     and
    - 7 -
    Wysenski with insider trading under section 20A of the Exchange
    Act, id. § 78t-1(a).   The gravamen of the alleged fraud, according
    to the complaint, is that, "[w]hen faced with . . . study results
    that seemed too good to be true, Defendants, rather than checking
    the results, turned a blind eye, accepting and promoting unlikely
    data that offered them a windfall on the sale of their stock."
    The defendants moved to dismiss for failure to state a
    claim, see Fed. R. Civ. P. 12(b)(6), arguing that the facts alleged
    in the complaint fail to generate a strong inference that the
    defendants acted with the mental state required to render them
    liable under section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5.      The district court
    agreed.   It found as well that Local No. 8's section 20(a) and
    section 20A claims could not survive in the absence of a proper
    section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 claim, and dismissed the complaint.
    See Local No. 8, 140 F. Supp. 3d at 137.        This timely appeal
    ensued.
    II.   Analysis
    We review de novo the district court's grant of the
    defendants' motion to dismiss for failure to state a claim.
    Aldridge v. A.T. Cross Corp., 
    284 F.3d 72
    , 78 (1st Cir. 2002).
    A.   Section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5
    To successfully state a securities fraud claim under
    section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5, a plaintiff must adequately allege,
    among other things, scienter.    "Scienter . . . is 'a mental state
    - 8 -
    embracing intent to deceive, manipulate, or defraud.'"     
    Id. at 82
    (quoting Ernst & Ernst v. Hochfelder, 
    425 U.S. 185
    , 193 n.12
    (1976)).   A plaintiff can establish scienter "by showing that
    defendants either 'consciously intended to defraud, or . . . acted
    with a high degree of recklessness.'"     Miss. Pub. Emps.' Ret. Sys.
    v. Bos. Sci. Corp. ("Boston I"), 
    523 F.3d 75
    , 85 (1st Cir. 2008)
    (quoting Aldridge, 
    284 F.3d at 82
    ).     "Recklessness in this context
    is 'a highly unreasonable omission, involving not merely simple,
    or even inexcusable negligence, but an extreme departure from the
    standards of ordinary care.'"    In re Smith & Wesson Holding Corp.
    Sec. Litig., 
    669 F.3d 68
    , 77 (1st Cir. 2012) (quoting Miss. Pub.
    Emps.' Ret. Sys. v. Bos. Sci. Corp. ("Boston II"), 
    649 F.3d 5
    , 20
    (1st Cir. 2011)).      The omission must "present[] a danger of
    misleading buyers or sellers that is either known to the defendant
    or is so obvious the actor must have been aware of it."          
    Id.
    (quoting Boston II, 
    649 F.3d at 20
    ).       This form of recklessness
    is "closer to a lesser form of intent" than it is to ordinary
    negligence.    Greebel v. FTP Software, Inc., 
    194 F.3d 185
    , 199 (1st
    Cir. 1999).6
    6 Local No. 8 attempts to dilute this stringent standard by
    citing to a Ninth Circuit case, In re Oracle Corp. Sec. Litig.,
    
    627 F.3d 376
     (9th Cir. 2010), which stated that recklessness arises
    where the defendant "had reasonable grounds to believe material
    facts existed that were misstated or omitted, but nonetheless
    failed to obtain and disclose such facts although he could have
    done so without extraordinary effort," 
    id. at 390
     (quoting Howard
    v. Everex Sys., Inc., 
    228 F.3d 1057
    , 1064 (9th Cir. 2000)). While
    - 9 -
    To   determine    whether    the   complaint      here    adequately
    alleges that the defendants acted with this culpable mental state,
    we    eschew    the   ordinary     standards      of   Federal    Rule       of    Civil
    Procedure 8(a)(2), which require only that the plaintiff "plead[]
    factual content that allows the court to draw the reasonable
    inference that the defendant[s] [are] liable for the misconduct
    alleged," Ashcroft v. Iqbal, 
    556 U.S. 662
    , 678 (2009).                       Instead,
    Congress has directed us to evaluate section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5
    claims of this type under the heightened pleading standards of the
    Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 ("PSLRA"), Pub.
    L. No. 104-67, 
    109 Stat. 737
    .          See Aldridge, 
    284 F.3d at 78
    .                  As
    is relevant here, the PSLRA provides that a complaint must "state
    with particularity facts giving rise to a strong inference that
    the     defendant[s]       acted     with      [scienter]."             15        U.S.C.
    §    78u-4(b)(2)(A).       Under    this    standard,     "[a]    complaint        will
    survive . . . only if a reasonable person would deem the inference
    of scienter cogent and at least as compelling as any opposing
    the Ninth Circuit has indeed recently applied this formulation of
    recklessness in assessing the adequacy of a complaint under the
    PSLRA, Reese v. Malone, 
    747 F.3d 557
    , 569 (9th Cir. 2014), even
    more recently it has rejected this same formulation as insufficient
    for assessing such a complaint, applying instead the formulation
    used in this circuit. In re NVIDIA Corp. Sec. Litig., 
    768 F.3d 1046
    , 1053 & n.7 (9th Cir. 2014), cert. denied sub nom. Cohen v.
    Nvidia Corp., 
    135 S. Ct. 2349
     (2015). In any event, however one
    might describe the law in the Ninth Circuit, we see no reason not
    to continue to apply a standard that makes clear that allegations
    of merely unreasonable conduct do not sufficiently plead scienter.
    - 10 -
    inference one could draw from the facts alleged."            Tellabs, Inc.
    v. Makor Issues & Rights, Ltd., 
    551 U.S. 308
    , 324 (2007).
    Local    No.   8   argues   on   appeal   that     the   complaint
    adequately alleges facts making it as likely as not that the
    defendants recklessly turned a blind eye to an obvious danger that
    the announced interpretation of the initial results was wrong.7
    To support this argument, Local No. 8 points to the cumulative
    probative force of seven facts alleged in the complaint.             We are
    mindful that "[e]ach individual fact about scienter may provide
    only a brushstroke," but it is our obligation to consider "the
    resulting portrait."     In re Cabletron Sys., Inc., 
    311 F.3d 11
    , 40
    (1st Cir. 2002).     Accordingly, we examine each alleged fact in
    turn, and then conclude by assessing them cumulatively.
    First,    Vertex     itself      described   the     results    as
    unexpected, or as "exceed[ing] . . . expectations."            The results
    were unexpected because, the complaint alleges, it was known
    "within Vertex" that VX-809 caused Kalydeco to "work less well."
    The fact remains, though, that Vertex made the investment necessary
    to design and perform a study testing the two drugs in combination.
    So, its puffing professions of surprise notwithstanding, Vertex
    7 Local No. 8 contends that the district           court improperly
    conflated the recklessness standard with an            actual knowledge
    standard. We do not find the district court to         have done so, but
    because we review the dismissal of Local No. 8's       complaint de novo
    under the proper standard, the outcome of this         appeal in no way
    depends on our so finding.
    - 11 -
    must have thought that positive results were possible, even if not
    probable. We suspect, too, that many studies of new pharmaceutical
    products result in surprises, both good and bad.
    This moves us to Local No. 8's second and related point,
    which    arises    from    the   complaint's      allegations   concerning    the
    science of cystic fibrosis research.                Local No. 8 alleges that
    cystic fibrosis research focuses on both "lung function and sweat
    chloride."    Because cystic fibrosis progressively and eventually
    fatally obstructs the lungs, "pulmonary function is an important
    marker of cystic fibrosis lung disease severity."               As a measure of
    pulmonary    function,      scientists     test    the   patient   for    "Forced
    Expired Volume" ("FEV").           Local No. 8 alleges that scientists
    studying cystic fibrosis also measure "sweat chloride levels"
    because cystic fibrosis impairs the tissues of the sweat glands,
    thereby elevating the concentration of chloride in the patient's
    sweat.
    The interim results reported to and by Vertex showed
    increased FEV measurements, but no material drop in sweat chloride
    levels.    Local No. 8 argues that some people have described sweat
    chloride levels to be the "gold standard" in cystic fibrosis
    research,    and    that    "individuals    at     the   Company   were   'highly
    skeptical' of the study results because of the lack of sweat
    chloride improvements."          Therefore, reasons Local No. 8, it was
    obvious that there was something wrong with the results.
    - 12 -
    Missing from the allegations is any contention that any
    defendant viewed the sweat chloride levels as incompatible with
    the FEV measurements, or that any of the unnamed individuals
    conveyed any such skepticism to any defendant.        Greebel, 
    194 F.3d at 199
    ; cf. Auto. Indus. Pension Trust Fund v. Textron Inc., 
    682 F.3d 34
    , 39 (1st Cir. 2012) (inference that defendants suspected
    a   statement   was     misleading   is   weaker   where   "warnings   by
    subordinates or expressions of concern by executives are notably
    absent").    The complaint does not even allege that scientists in
    general, much less those at Vertex, regarded the reported results
    as implausible.       And given that the final results reflected the
    same phenomenon (improved FEV and steady sweat chloride levels),
    there is no reason given here to presume that scientists in general
    must view the possibility of such results as obviously wrong.
    Notably, too, Vertex reported the sweat chloride levels in the
    same press release in which it reported the positive FEV results.
    So it would seem most likely that Vertex itself did not view the
    former as belying the latter, and neither apparently did the
    market.8
    8 Contrary to Local No. 8's assertion, Boston I is not
    "particularly on point." In Boston I, we reversed the dismissal
    of a section 10(b) claim, 
    523 F.3d at 94
    , finding that the
    defendants' own statements in connection with a manufacturing
    change to a medical device could be read as an admission that the
    change had been made in response to a design defect that the
    defendants had not previously disclosed, see 
    id. at 88
    . No such
    potentially facially incriminating statements are at issue here.
    - 13 -
    Third, Local No. 8 alleges that the study was very
    important to Vertex, and that it would therefore "be 'absurd' to
    suggest that Defendants were not aware of the suspect nature of
    the results."   It is true that the importance of a particular item
    to a defendant can support an inference that the defendant is
    "paying close attention" to that item.   Institutional Inv'rs Grp.
    v. Avaya, Inc., 
    564 F.3d 242
    , 271 (3d Cir. 2009).          Such an
    inference, however, is only helpful in establishing scienter if
    that close attention would have revealed an incongruity so glaring
    as to make the need for further inquiry obvious.   See 
    id.
     at 270–
    71 (noting that a "steep decline" in operating margins creates
    inference that Chief Financial Officer, who "was paying close
    attention to these numbers," would investigate the cause).      We
    have already discussed why the complaint fails to establish that
    the announced results, on their face, contained such an obvious
    incongruity.
    Similarly, some cases have recognized that certain key
    facts known to lower-level company managers concerning a company's
    flagship product, such as whether a $100 million contract has been
    signed to sell the product, or that sales are falling fast rather
    than rising, are very likely known to senior management who made
    repeated public announcements concerning sales of the product.
    See, e.g., Makor Issues & Rights, Ltd. v. Tellabs Inc., 
    513 F.3d 702
    , 706-10 (7th Cir. 2008).     But the complaint here does not
    - 14 -
    allege     that      anybody        at    Vertex      responsible   for     receiving,
    reviewing, and reporting the results had actually spotted the error
    in the interpretation of the results before the discovery that led
    to the second announcement.
    Fourth, Local No. 8 points to its allegation that the
    specific    error      in     the    publicly      reported    results--namely,      the
    substitution of relative improvement for absolute improvement in
    lung function--was so "fundamental" that it should have been
    apparent to the Vertex pulmonologist responsible for receiving the
    raw data from the third-party vendor "regardless of how [the data]
    w[ere] presented by the vendor."                      The pulmonologist is not a
    defendant, however, and there is no allegation that any party
    responsible for the decision to announce the interim results
    received the raw data.               The fact that a Vertex pulmonologist was
    the one who received the raw data actually cuts sharply against
    Local    No.    8    because        there   is   no    allegation   that    even     this
    pulmonologist         noticed        or     suspected    that    Vertex's      reported
    interpretation of the results was incorrect, or told anyone of any
    skepticism.         The complaint does assert in conclusory fashion that
    the pulmonologist "should have known" of the error.                            Yet, the
    complaint      tells     us    nothing       about     the    precise   form    of    the
    information conveyed by the vendor, or the vendor's reliability.
    Negligence by the pulmonologist, too, hardly gets Local No. 8
    anywhere.       Rather, it adds a concrete reason why the erroneous
    - 15 -
    interpretation of the study results would not have been obvious to
    the executives to whom the pulmonologist reported the results.
    Even making the reasonable inference, as Local No. 8
    urges, that the defendants had access to the raw data--review of
    which would allegedly have rendered the error obvious through
    "simple math"--we have already determined that the complaint's
    allegations are insufficient to establish that the erroneously
    interpreted end results (which are all the individual defendants
    are alleged to have received) were themselves so obviously suspect
    that we can draw a strong inference that the defendants were
    reckless   in   failing   to   consult   the   raw   data   themselves   for
    verification.9
    Fifth, in its appellate brief, Local No. 8 also observes
    that it is "rare[]" to publish interim results and implies that
    Vertex's decision to do so here is probative of scienter. However,
    the complaint nowhere alleges that the publication of interim
    results was anomalous, and so we do not consider this argument in
    assessing whether the complaint has stated a claim. Nor does Local
    No. 8 point to any legal requirement, or any undertaking by Vertex,
    9 At oral argument, counsel for Local No. 8 noted that, prior
    to discovery, few plaintiffs will be in a position to make specific
    allegations about the form of internal documents. "But while a
    trawl through archives may sometimes catch a few fish, Congress,"
    for reasons of its own, "deliberately raised the entry bar to
    discovery . . . through the PSLRA's heightened pleading standards."
    Textron, 682 F.3d at 40.
    - 16 -
    that obligated the company to double-check the interim results
    before announcing them.
    Sixth, we have considered Local No. 8's allegations that
    the defendants had a financial motive to "turn[] a blind eye" to
    the erroneous interpretation of the interim results because of the
    stock price spike precipitated by the error.       Cf. Aldridge, 
    284 F.3d at 83
     ("When financial incentives to exaggerate [material
    information] go far beyond the usual . . . , they may be considered
    among other facts to show scienter." (emphasis supplied)).         Here,
    several facts strongly suggest that at least Vertex's CEO, Leiden,
    had no motive to ignore an error that was obvious and that would
    therefore soon become known.       Leiden, who touted the erroneous
    interim results as driving Vertex "to accelerat[e] the development
    of [its] [cystic fibrosis] combination regimen," is not alleged to
    have sold any stock during the class period.    Local No. 8 contends
    that this was "a major study that . . . was central to [Vertex's]
    prospects."   Announcing good results on such a study would have
    been clearly better for Vertex than announcing great results only
    to reduce them to good results by shortly thereafter confessing
    error,   thereby   harming   the   company's   credibility   and     its
    reputation for competence.     Combined with the foregoing points,
    this fact makes it quite unlikely (and certainly less than 50-50)
    that any error was so obvious that Leiden must have known that the
    - 17 -
    results   were   mistaken   (and   would    therefore   soon   have   to   be
    withdrawn or corrected).
    Local No. 8 therefore places its focus on the fact that
    the other five defendants sold almost $32 million worth of stock
    following release of the overstated interim results.           According to
    the complaint, these sales were "unusual when compared to [the
    individual defendants'] trading history before and after" the
    three-week class period.      Local No. 8 argues that this unusual
    activity, together with the inferences that can be drawn from the
    defendants' failure to double-check the interim results, makes
    "the inference that Defendants turned a blind eye to the suspect
    test results to line their own pockets . . . at least as strong"
    as an inference of negligence.
    It is well settled that "[i]nsider trading in suspicious
    amounts or at suspicious times may be probative of scienter."
    Boston I, 
    523 F.3d at
    92 (citing Greebel, 
    194 F.3d at 197
    ;
    Greenstone v. Cambex Corp., 
    975 F.2d 22
    , 26 (1st Cir. 1992)).              At
    the outset, however, it bears noting that, in addition to Leiden,
    defendant Boger did not engage in any inconsistent trading behavior
    during the class period.     Boger, who was Vertex's Director at the
    time, sold consistently small amounts of stock on a more or less
    weekly basis before, during, and after the class period.
    So, to regard the stock sales as either motive for the
    fraud or evidence of the defendants' knowledge that the interim
    - 18 -
    study results had been misinterpreted, we must hypothesize either
    that the error was obvious only to those defendants who made
    unprecedented sales, or that it was obvious to all, yet the
    Director and CEO nevertheless went along with announcing obviously
    flawed results.    The complaint, though, offers no fact suggesting
    that the sellers knew more than the nonsellers.        To the contrary,
    the largest seller, Wysenski, was not a scientist.                And our
    discussion of Leiden's salient interests and motive renders a
    stretch any inference that he would have gone along with announcing
    obviously erroneous results.
    The     complaint's   chronology   also    offers   a    simple
    alternative explanation of the stock sales.         After a long period
    of steady or dropping stock prices, the stock price suddenly jumped
    a large amount.      Such an increase--no matter what its cause--
    creates a substantial incentive for holders to sell unless they
    believe the price will continue to rise and are willing to wait.
    Sales in the historical context described in the complaint carry
    little force in implying knowledge that the stock will drop.10        All
    in all, the presence of this perfectly understandable, innocent
    10By contrast, consider a case of more or less steady stock
    price, followed by a nonpublic adverse event, inside sales, and
    then public disclosure of the adverse event. See, e.g., SEC v.
    Rocklage, 
    470 F.3d 1
    , 3–4 (1st Cir. 2006).
    - 19 -
    reason to sell, combined with the poor fit between the facts and
    Local No. 8's theory, leaves us short of the scienter mark.11
    Seventh,   there    is,    finally,   the   fact   that   Vertex
    announced the retirement of Wysenski, aged fifty-four at the time,
    "suddenly and without any forewarning" on June 8, 2012--just one
    day after Iowa Senator Charles Grassley had sent a letter to
    Securities and Exchange Commission Chairwoman Mary Shapiro asking
    her to probe whether "Vertex . . . executives . . . took advantage
    of the spike in the stock knowing the news of the clinical data
    being overstated would be made public eventually, which in turn
    would        negatively   affect    the    stock     value."      From   these
    circumstances, Local No. 8 asks us to infer (1) that the defendants
    were aware of Senator Grassley's letter, and (2) that the letter
    prompted Wysenski's retirement (3) because it correctly exposed
    that Wysenski, at a minimum, had deliberately turned a blind eye
    to the risk that the announced interim results were erroneous.
    11
    Local No. 8 cites a Ninth Circuit case, No. 84 Employer-
    Teamster Joint Council Pension Trust Fund v. America West Holding
    Corp., 
    320 F.3d 920
     (9th Cir. 2003), which it describes as
    "analogous." However, a major factor in the America West court's
    determination that the stock sales at issue were "unusual and
    suspicious," 
    id. at 940
    , was the fact that "[m]ost of the [alleged
    insiders] sold 100% of their shares, with the lowest percentage
    being 88%," 
    id. at 939
    . Here, by contrast, the two most senior
    defendants made no sales out of the ordinary course, and the
    complaint contains no allegation as to what proportion of his or
    her total stock any other defendant sold during the class period.
    - 20 -
    These allegations both point a finger at Wysenski and
    tend to exculpate the others who did not retire or leave the
    company. The question is whether they add enough to permit a claim
    against   Wysenski;   i.e.,   whether   they   make   "the   inference   of
    scienter . . . at least as compelling as any opposing inference
    one could draw from the facts alleged."        Tellabs, 
    551 U.S. at 324
    .
    It is reasonable to infer that Vertex knew of Senator Grassley's
    letter,12 and that Wysenski's departure had something to do with
    her stock sales.      But Local No. 8 must take us a step further.
    For Local No. 8 to prevail, we would need to infer that Wysenski
    left or was pushed out for a particular reason; i.e., because she
    had unlawfully misled the market. If that were the reason, though,
    it would have applied to all defendants because the complaint makes
    no suggestion that Wysenski (a nonscientist handling marketing)
    knew anything more about the test results than did the others (who
    neither left nor were forced out in this timeframe).
    12When asked about this point at oral argument, counsel for
    Local No. 8 stated, wrongly, that the complaint alleged that
    Senator Grassley's letter was publicly available, rather than
    asking us to take judicial notice of contemporaneous news reports
    establishing that the letter was indeed public. See, e.g., Beth
    Healy, US Senator Charles Grassley Raises Vertex Stock Profits
    Issue with SEC Chief, Boston Globe, June 7, 2012, available at
    https://www.bostonglobe.com/business/2012/06/07/senator-charles-
    grassley-raises-vertex-stock-profits-issue-with-sec-
    chief/cogtZEGDw2GhiDGt5DNbIK/story.html. Because we do not find
    this point to be dispositive, we do not decide whether we would
    otherwise elect to take such notice sua sponte.
    - 21 -
    Alternative explanations abound.           Wysenski's very large
    sales and the spotlight focused on those sales could have given
    rise to her retirement without any hint of fraud.              Large insider
    sales by a senior manager, regardless of the reason for such sales,
    can   present   a    major    embarrassment    for    a   company.     Perhaps
    negligence by Wysenski in preparing the erroneous press release
    prompted a forced retirement.          Picking among these explanations,
    without the benefit of factual allegations suggesting Wysenski
    knew something the other defendants did not know, depends on a
    degree of guesswork inconsistent with the PSLRA pleading standard.
    Cumulatively, the brushstrokes here do not paint the
    required    strong     inference      of   scienter.        Vertex's    public
    description of a scientific study contained an error that made
    unexpectedly good results look even better than they were; there
    is no claim that the pulmonologist who received and reviewed the
    raw data behind the results noticed or reported the error to
    company    executives;       the   company's   CEO,   a   scientist,   had   no
    plausible reason to announce results infected with an error that
    would most likely soon mar otherwise good news and harm Vertex by
    leading to an embarrassing correction; and there is no claim that
    the other defendants possessed any additional information.               Given
    the foregoing, the stock sales by some of the individual defendants
    and the timing of Wysenski's retirement (which might otherwise
    look very different) cover too little canvas to evoke inferences
    - 22 -
    of scienter strong enough to equal the alternative inference that
    Vertex was negligent in viewing very good results as being even
    better than they in fact were.
    Accordingly, the allegations underlying Local No. 8's
    claim that the defendants acted with scienter fall short of what
    Congress demands in the securities fraud context.     We therefore
    affirm dismissal of the section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 claim.
    B.   Section 20(a) and 20A
    Local No. 8 concedes that its remaining claims are
    derivative of its section 10(b) and Rule 10b-5 claim.   Because we
    conclude that the district court properly dismissed the latter, it
    follows that the district court properly dismissed the former.   We
    therefore affirm the dismissal of Local No. 8's remaining claims.
    III.    Conclusion
    Under the PSLRA, this action can only move forward if we
    find that the allegations make it at least as likely as not either
    that the defendants knew the results as reported were wrong, or
    that it was obvious to the defendants that they would discover the
    error if they looked.   Because we, like the district court, cannot
    so find, we affirm the dismissal of the complaint.
    - 23 -