United States v. Soler-Montalvo ( 2022 )


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  •             United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 20-1311
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Appellee,
    v.
    RAFAEL SOLER-MONTALVO,
    Defendant, Appellant.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF PUERTO RICO
    [Hon. Gustavo A. Gelpí, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Thompson and Howard, Circuit Judges,
    and Woodcock,* District Judge.
    Andrew S. McCutcheon, Assistant Federal Public Defender, with
    whom Eric Alexander Vos, Federal Public Defender, Franco L. Pérez-
    Redondo, Assistant Federal Public Defender, Supervisor, Appeals
    Division, and Kevin E. Lerman, Research & Writing Specialist, were
    on brief, for appellant.
    Ross B. Goldman, with whom W. Stephen Muldrow, United States
    Attorney, Mariana Bauza and Ginette L. Milanés, Assistant United
    States Attorneys, Nicholas L. McQuaid, Acting Assistant Attorney
    General, and Robert A. Zink, Acting Deputy Assistant Attorney
    General, were on brief, for appellee.
    *   Of the District of Maine, sitting by designation.
    August 2, 2022
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.         After a four-day trial, a
    federal jury in Puerto Rico found Rafael Soler-Montalvo guilty of
    attempting to persuade, induce, or entice a minor to engage in
    criminal sexual activity.        Appealing, he flags three areas of
    error.    He says the evidence was constitutionally insufficient to
    convict   him,   that   the   district   court   erred   in   limiting   the
    testimony of his expert witness, and that the prosecution engaged
    in a string of misconduct that ultimately discolored the jury's
    view of the trial.      Finding the evidence sufficient, but the trial
    tainted by the erroneous limitation of Soler's expert's testimony,
    we vacate and remand for a new trial.
    BACKGROUND
    The story begins in March 2017.        Soler was a 64-year-
    old retiree from the NYPD living in Guánica, Puerto Rico.            After
    separating from his spouse at some point prior to 2017, he became
    lonely and had trouble socializing.       So he began using some dating
    websites.    One of the websites he used for dating was Craigslist,
    specifically the "Casual Encounters" section, where people posted
    personal ads.
    In late March or early April 2017, one of the ads up on
    Craigslist in Puerto Rico was titled: "In Mayagüez for a few
    weeks."   Opening up the ad that was posted as a "69" year-old woman
    (the poster) seeking a man (the responder), it said:             "Hey, I'm
    visiting Mayagüez for a little bit, looking for a cool guy to spend
    - 3 -
    some time with."      One of the people who responded to the posting
    was Soler.    After that, someone responded to Soler's email saying:
    "Hey, what's up can you send me a message on Kik Messenger at
    JanisN666.       If you're into young thin girls say hi."                "Janis,"
    though, was actually Special Agent Ryan Sieg from Homeland Security
    Investigations, posing as a young girl.
    From there, a Kik user -- later identified as Soler --
    going by the username "4Real4U2Day" sent a message to Janis.                     And
    a conversation sparked over the next days or weeks.                     We'll get
    into much more detail later on, so we'll just give the highlights
    now.
    Soler introduced himself (including telling Janis his
    background, where he lived, and about his children), asked Janis
    questions about her experience in Puerto Rico, and asked about
    where she was from.        Quite early on in the conversation, Janis
    told Soler that she was 13 years old.              Although Soler chuckled
    that remark off and said he thought Janis was joking, Janis doubled
    down that she was only 13.         And although Soler expressed surprise
    that a 13 year old was posting on Craigslist Casual Encounters
    (which   requires    the   poster    to   verify   they    are   over     18),   he
    acknowledged there was no way for Craigslist to verify that
    information.
    From there, the conversation turned sexually explicit.
    Soler    began    asking   Janis    for   photos   of     herself   and    making
    - 4 -
    suggestive    comments   about   her    appearance.      Eventually,   Janis
    shared two photographs of "herself," which were actually childhood
    photos of a female law-enforcement officer used with her consent.
    The photos, which clearly reflected an underage girl, generated
    more   suggestive   comments     from    Soler   about   Janis's   physical
    appearance.    And the conversation became very sexual, with Soler
    telling Janis extensively -- and in some detail -- about the sexual
    things he wanted to do to her.          He even sent a sexually explicit
    photo of himself.
    Soler also discussed meeting up with Janis.             The two
    discussed logistics, including for how long Janis could get away
    from her family, whether family members would be suspicious, where
    they should meet, and how Janis would get there.          Throughout their
    conversation, Soler revealed concern that they would be caught and
    repeatedly sought assurances from Janis that their meeting would
    be their secret and that she wouldn't tattle to her family or the
    authorities.    The two ultimately agreed to meet at the Walmart at
    the mall in Mayagüez.      But on the day of the meet, "Janis" got
    scared and refused to come outside -- though not before figuring
    out what kind of car Soler was driving.          After trying to convince
    Janis to come outside, Soler eventually drove away, leaving Janis
    with a reminder that everything should remain their secret.            Soler
    was soon pulled over and arrested, and the officers pulled Soler's
    - 5 -
    cell phone -- with the messages with Janis still on it -- out of
    the truck.
    Following his arrest, a Puerto Rico federal grand jury
    handed down an indictment charging Soler with one count of attempt
    to persuade, induce, or entice a minor to engage in criminal sexual
    activity, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 2422
    (b).     And so began the
    criminal proceedings that eventually brought Soler to us.      We'll
    offer more detail on all the procedural history later as it becomes
    relevant to the analysis.   But, at a high level, here's what went
    down.   At the district court, Soler and the government jostled
    over a host of issues before, at, and after the trial.   Pre-trial,
    their spars included motion practice over the admission of Soler's
    proposed expert, with the district court ultimately issuing four
    separate, short orders on the subject, seemingly changing its mind
    (again, more on that later).   After going to trial, at which Soler
    testified, a jury convicted Soler of the sole count against him.
    Soler moved for both a judgment of acquittal (claiming insufficient
    evidence to convict) and a new trial (claiming a litany of trial
    errors, including alleged evidentiary misfires, jury-instruction
    errors, and prosecutorial misconduct).     The district court denied
    both motions, and Soler timely appealed.
    - 6 -
    DISCUSSION
    I.     Sufficiency of the Evidence
    We     begin     with   Soler's      argument   that    there    was
    insufficient evidence to find him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt,
    and that the district court therefore should have ordered an
    acquittal.         See Fed. R. Crim. P. 29.        Because Soler preserved his
    challenge to the sufficiency of the evidence below, our review is
    de novo.      See United States v. Maldonado-Peña, 
    4 F.4th 1
    , 50 (1st
    Cir. 2021), cert. denied sub nom. Rivera-George v. United States,
    
    142 S. Ct. 1184
     (2022).           So we look at the issues with fresh eyes
    and without any deference to the district court's assessment.                  
    Id.
    In     testing    the    evidentiary     sufficiency,      we   must
    "determine whether 'any reasonable jury could find all the elements
    of the crime [proven] beyond a reasonable doubt.'"                United States
    v. Seary-Colón, 
    997 F.3d 1
    , 11 (1st Cir. 2021) (quoting United
    States v. Santos-Soto, 
    799 F.3d 49
    , 57 (1st Cir. 2015)), cert.
    denied, 
    142 S. Ct. 184
     (2021).              The question is not whether "no
    verdict other than a guilty verdict could sensibly be reached,"
    but only whether "the guilty verdict finds support in a plausible
    rendition of the record."             
    Id.
     (quoting United States v. Hatch,
    
    434 F.3d 1
    , 4 (1st Cir. 2006)). To affirm, we need not be satisfied
    that   "the    government       succeeded   in     eliminating   every   possible
    theory consistent with the defendant's innocence."                    
    Id. at 14
    (citation omitted).
    - 7 -
    To conduct our analysis, we review the record in the
    light most favorable to the verdict.           United States v. Clough, 
    978 F.3d 810
    , 816 (1st Cir. 2020).         In doing so, "we do not view each
    piece of evidence separately, re-weigh the evidence, or second-
    guess the jury's credibility calls."           Seary-Colón, 997 F.3d at 12.
    Rather, we "giv[e] the prosecution the benefit of all sensible
    inferences and credibility choices."           United States v. Cruz-Ramos,
    
    987 F.3d 27
    , 36 (1st Cir. 2021).          Indeed, it is not our role to
    "decide 'which witness to credit,'" for we must assume that the
    jury "credited those witnesses whose testimony lent support to the
    verdict."   
    Id. at 38
     (quoting United States v. Lara, 
    181 F.3d 183
    ,
    204 (1st Cir. 1999)).
    In the end, "[w]e will only reverse on a sufficiency
    challenge    if,    'after   viewing     the     evidence   and   reasonable
    inferences in the light most flattering to the prosecution, [we
    conclude that] no rational jury could have found [the defendant]
    guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.'"            Seary-Colón, 997 F.3d at 11
    (quoting United States v. Acosta-Colón, 
    741 F.3d 179
    , 191 (1st
    Cir. 2013)).       But if we do reverse, then that seals the deal
    because we must order acquittal, which then precludes a second
    trial.   See Maldonado-Peña, 4 F.4th at 50.
    Soler was charged with attempted coercion and enticement
    of a minor, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 2422
    (b).            To prevail, the
    government had to prove, beyond a reasonable doubt, that Soler (1)
    - 8 -
    used a facility of interstate commerce (2) to attempt to, or to
    knowingly, persuade, induce, or entice (3) someone younger than
    eighteen years old (4) to engage in criminal sexual activity.           See
    United States v. Dávila-Nieves, 
    670 F.3d 1
    , 7 (1st Cir. 2012).           To
    prove its attempt theory, the government had to show that Soler
    "inten[ded]   to   commit   the   substantive   offense"   and   took   "a
    substantial step towards its commission."       United States v. Berk,
    
    652 F.3d 132
    , 140 (1st Cir. 2011).        As most pertinent here, the
    parties agree that the government had to prove -- again, beyond a
    reasonable doubt -- that Soler believed Janis was a minor.1
    According to Soler, there was evidence that "undermined"
    the idea that he knew he was communicating with a minor.         Chiefly,
    Soler points out that the encounter with Janis originated from a
    website designed specifically for adults, which required that the
    poster affirm she is over the age of 18.        He contends that there
    were points in the conversation with Janis that showed that it was
    a role-play, including Janis's supposed understanding of what a
    "daddy relationship" entails.        And he points to his "candid"
    1 We note the circuits have divided concerning whether a
    defendant must know the individual being persuaded, induced, or
    enticed was a minor. See United States v. Montijo-Maysonet, 
    974 F.3d 34
    , 43 (1st Cir. 2020) (describing the split and collecting
    cases). It does not appear that we have decided whether mistake
    of age is an available defense to a prosecution under § 2422(b).
    See id. But, in any event, the government itself conceded in the
    district court that it had to prove that Soler believed Janis was
    a minor. So we need not decide that question here.
    - 9 -
    testimony in which he "categorically rejected" that he thought he
    was doing anything but role-playing.
    The problem with Soler's arguments, though, is that
    there was plenty of other circumstantial evidence from which a
    reasonable jury could have surmised that Soler believed he was
    speaking with a minor.   For example, in his messages with Janis,
    Soler expressed surprise that someone so young posted on Craigslist
    after Janis said she was 13.   But Janis responded:     "Ya so?   Anyone
    can[.]"   And Soler agreed with her:      "I realize that, they have no
    way of knowing."   Plus, Janis out and out told Soler that she was
    13 years old.   And though Soler replied with a snicker that he was
    100 years old and later said that he thought Janis was "joking"
    that she was 13, Soler continued the conversation after Janis
    repeated that she was only 13.    And she brought it up again, asking
    Soler twice if he was "cool with [her] being 13," to which Soler
    one time responded:   "Why shouldn't I be?       You sound very mature
    [] and from your pic very nice also."
    What's more, Janis sent two fake photographs of herself,
    and those photos were quite clearly of an underage girl.             See
    United States v. Montijo-Maysonet, 
    974 F.3d 34
    , 44 (1st Cir. 2020)
    (noting the jury could find that photographs depicted a minor).
    Soler also reacted to the photographs, calling Janis "gorgeous"
    and her (clearly underage) body "beautiful," later telling her
    - 10 -
    that he was "admiring [her] sexyness [sic]," and even asking for
    more photos on multiple occasions.
    Additionally, the conversation between Soler and Janis
    could also be viewed as reflecting Soler's belief that Janis was
    young and sexually inexperienced.     For example, Janis asked if sex
    was "going to hurt[.]"      Janis told Soler that she "d[oes]n[']t
    really know much about sex" and that she worried that she "won[']t
    be good at sex probably like older girls and [she] will feel
    bad[.]"     But Soler told her:   "I won't let you feel you bad, your
    [sic] so beautiful I will make you feel very good[.]"      Janis also
    expressed inexperience with condoms, oral sex, and lubricants, and
    asked if certain things were "what girls do . . . . [l]ike older
    girls?" Soler acknowledged Janis's lack of experience, too, asking
    her if she had "ever hear[d] of doggy style" and telling her,
    "[y]ou['ll] probably be nervous but I'll try to keep you calm and
    happy[.]"
    Soler also repeatedly expressed concern about getting
    caught.   He pressed again and again that everything should be kept
    his and Janis's "secret," seeking assurances that she wouldn't
    tattle.     In arranging their meeting, Soler persistently worried
    that Janis's cousin, who would have to drive Janis to the mall,
    would not think anything amiss if Janis disappeared for a couple
    of hours and cautioned Janis not to let anyone see her texting on
    the day of the meet-up.    He said it would be best if they could go
    - 11 -
    to his home instead of a motel because "it's a lot safer here at
    home.    No nosey people around us."   Later, he acknowledged it could
    be "too risky" for them to go to the beach or a movie.         And he
    told Janis that once she got in the car she could "put the seat
    back . . . [so] nobody can spot [her]."       Soler contends that all
    of this was part of the role-play.     But given that the jurors knew
    he was a retired detective, and just given the jurors' common
    sense, see Montijo-Maysonet, 974 F.3d at 42 (noting "[j]urors don't
    have to check 'common sense' or 'mature experiences' at the
    courthouse door" (citation omitted)), they could have inferred
    that Soler was saying all of this because he knew the risks
    involved and needed to cover his tracks.2
    Soler took even more steps that a jury could have seen
    as beyond a simple role-play.    Soler discussed with Janis using a
    unique type of condom, which he said was only sold at a store
    called "Condom World."     So he told her he would call the store
    near the mall where they were going to meet to see if they had any
    in stock.    And, in fact, Soler actually called that store like he
    said he would.    Soler also discussed a strawberry lubricant with
    Janis, and he in fact had that same strawberry lubricant in his
    2 Soler also testified that his risk concerns arose from his
    fear that the person who he was communicating with, and who he
    believed to be another adult, might release all of the personal
    information Soler had shared and embarrass him. Again, as with
    his role-play testimony, it was the jury's call on whether to
    believe that explanation or not.
    - 12 -
    home.      The jury reasonably could have drawn the inference that
    someone wouldn't have taken those steps had it been a mere role-
    play.3
    To be sure, Soler testified that he never believed Janis
    was a minor, he was merely role-playing (though he never clearly
    defined the contours of what role-playing involved for him, whether
    it   was   merely   cyber-based   or   possibly   in-person).   And,   in
    explaining why he assumed it was role-play, Soler testified about
    3Soler's expert (who we'll get to in more detail later) told
    the jury about so-called "de-masking" activities that occur from
    role-playing online, in which one party tries to identify who the
    other party they're talking to really is. So (Soler's argument
    goes) he went to the meet-up to try to de-mask his conversation
    partner, knowing full-well that a meet-up "most likely wasn't going
    to happen." And, apparently trying to account for the real-life
    steps Soler took here, his counsel seemed to insinuate at closing
    argument that Soler might have left open the possibility that his
    meet-up could end in a consensual sexual encounter, perhaps
    continuing the role-play in-person, with that adult. Problem is,
    Soler didn't testify that he was preparing for such a real-life
    sexual encounter. Instead, Soler testified that he tried to meet
    up merely because he "was extremely curious to whom [he] was
    speaking." And he never testified that he intended to continue
    his role-play fantasy in-person with another adult, instead
    testifying only that "going to meet up and have sex" was one of
    his undefined "fantasies" in the chat.     Nor was Soler asked at
    trial why he took these real-life steps. Moreover, Soler's expert
    Dr. Kraft did not testify about de-masking habits leading to
    consensual, in-person, role-playing sexual encounters. Dr. Kraft
    testified only that de-masking, which "doesn't happen that often,"
    usually leads to the two individuals "laugh[ing]" about the
    fantasy, or is borne out of one party's "frustration" with people
    misrepresenting themselves.      Given Soler's and Dr. Kraft's
    testimonies, the jury could have reasonably rejected Soler's
    closing-argument insinuation that he was preparing for a
    consensual adult sexual encounter with the steps he actually took
    outside of the role-play chat.
    - 13 -
    holes he saw in Janis's story that he said led him to believe she
    was not actually the 13-year-old girl she claimed to be.              Soler
    noted that it made no sense that a girl that young would have been
    on a three-to-four-week April school vacation, and that it was odd
    that she was unfamiliar with the geography of Virginia even though
    that's where she said she lived.
    Ultimately though, it was up to the jury to decide
    whether to credit Soler's testimony in the face of this ample
    evidence questioning Soler's claimed belief that he was only role-
    playing with a consenting adult.           "[S]ifting through conflicting
    testimony and determining where the truth lies is the sort of work
    that falls squarely within the jury's province, not ours."            Cruz-
    Ramos, 987 F.3d at 38 (cleaned up) (quoting United States v.
    Nascimento, 
    491 F.3d 25
    , 46 (1st Cir. 2007)).          And the jury "was,
    of course, free to reject [Soler's] defense" that "he had no
    interest in actually having sex with [a] minor[], but was instead
    engaging in a form of 'role playing.'"         Berk, 
    652 F.3d at
    140 n.8;
    see also United States v. Gomez-Villamizar, 
    981 F.2d 621
    , 624 (1st
    Cir.   1992)   (noting   the   jury   is    not   obligated   to   credit   a
    defendant's testimony that she didn't know there was cocaine in
    the suitcase); United States v. Ocampo-Guarin, 
    968 F.2d 1406
    , 1410
    (1st Cir. 1992).
    Nor was the evidence, as Soler contends, in equipoise
    concerning his guilt and innocence.            It is true that we "must
    - 14 -
    reverse a conviction on the grounds of evidentiary insufficiency
    where an equal or nearly equal theory of guilt and a theory of
    innocence is supported by the evidence viewed in the light most
    favorable to the verdict."           United States v. Rodríguez-Martinez,
    
    778 F.3d 367
    , 373 (1st Cir. 2015) (quoting United States v.
    Woodward, 
    149 F.3d 46
    , 57 (1st Cir. 1998)).                  But "this equal-
    evidence    rule     takes   hold    only    after   [we]   ha[ve]    drawn   all
    reasonable inferences in favor of the verdict."               United States v.
    Simon, 
    12 F.4th 1
    , 32 (1st Cir. 2021) (emphasis in original)
    (quoting Magraw v. Roden, 
    743 F.3d 1
    , 5 (1st Cir. 2014)), cert.
    denied,    
    142 S. Ct. 2811
    ,   
    142 S. Ct. 2812
       (2022);    see    also
    Rodríguez-Martinez, 778 F.3d at 373 (explaining the equipoise rule
    comes     into    play   where   "[w]ithout      additional    circumstantial
    evidence from which the jury could rationally infer that one was
    more supportable than the other, . . . [the] evidence . . . permits
    two equally plausible inferences").             Here, to find equipoise, we
    would have to credit Soler's testimony inconsistent with the
    verdict.         That we cannot do, especially given the plentiful
    evidence from which the jury could reasonably infer that Soler's
    explanation was not credible.
    The district court did not err in denying Soler's motion
    for a judgment of acquittal.
    - 15 -
    II.   Exclusion of Dr. Kraft's Testimony
    Soler contends the district court erroneously excluded
    part of the testimony of his proposed expert, Dr. Chris Kraft.          He
    accordingly demands a new trial.
    Dr. Kraft, who holds a Ph.D. in clinical psychology, is
    a   Board-certified    psychologist   working   at   the   Johns   Hopkins
    University specializing in internet sexual behaviors.              Before
    trial, Soler proffered Dr. Kraft to opine on two subjects.          First,
    Dr. Kraft would (and ultimately did) testify on the psychology
    behind internet communication and messaging, and specifically the
    frequency of role-play, imagination, or exaggeration in online
    messaging.      Second (and this one is important for us here), Soler
    wanted him to testify about "the difference between a desire to
    actually engage in sexual activity with a minor and mere fantasy
    and role-playing related to sexual contact with children."              As
    part of that category of testimony, Soler proffered that Dr. Kraft
    would testify that "the chats here . . . may be consistent with
    the conduct and behavior of consenting adults using forums for
    fun, play, fantasy and cybersex," but they are not consistent with
    the patterns of child sexual predators.
    A.     Preservation
    On appeal, Soler complains that the district court,
    siding with the government's pre-trial motion, precluded Dr. Kraft
    from testifying on the second subject, the modus operandi of
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    predators and how his behavior differed. But the government throws
    in a new appellate wrinkle:        It now says that Dr. Kraft's testimony
    was not at all limited by the district court as Soler claims, and
    since no such limitation was imposed upon him, the government
    declines on appeal to speculatively respond as to why Soler chose
    not to probe the issue at trial.
    To   evaluate   the    government's     claim,   a   brief   (but
    detailed) procedural recap is in order so the reader can follow
    our analysis that is to come.            Initially, the district court
    granted the government's request to exclude Dr. Kraft's testimony
    in its entirety.        In a six-sentence order, the court explained
    that   Dr.    Kraft's    testimony     "ultimately    . . .   involves    the
    defendant's state of mind."         As the court understood the proffer,
    "Dr. Kraft . . . would review the evidence and conclude that the
    same is probative of a desire to engage in fantasy role playing
    with children rather than in actual sexual contact," further
    opining that Soler "is not a typical internet sexual predator . . .
    [and] possesses none of the characteristics of one."               Thus, the
    district court said, the testimony was not proper.
    Unhappy, Soler moved for reconsideration of that ruling.
    In his motion, Soler explained that the district court did not
    recognize the two distinct areas of Dr. Kraft's proposed testimony:
    (1) testimony concerning "psychology of the internet, internet
    messaging, fantasy[,] and role-play"; and (2) testimony about the
    - 17 -
    patterns of sexual predators and analysis that Soler's actions
    here do not line up with those patterns.
    Denying   the   motion   for   reconsideration,        the   court
    stated:     "The Court notes that in the Joseph case from the Second
    Circuit,    defendant   himself   testified    and   that    the    excluded
    evidence would have been relevant to defendant's credibility.
    Here, the proffered evidence seeks to be presented in a vacu[u]m
    and not in addition to any other evidence."           But less than two
    hours later the district court walked things back.          It amended its
    reconsideration order to add that "[s]hould [Soler] testify at
    trial, following said testimony the Court will allow the testimony
    of Dr. Kraft.    See US v Joseph, 542 F3d 13, 21 (2nd Cir. 2008)."
    Finally, when the time came for Dr. Kraft to testify at
    trial, the district court added another note:               "[Y]ou have to
    remember the expert is just going to testify in general terms.
    He's not going to testify -- he hasn't interviewed him [meaning
    Soler], he hasn't -- he's not going to come to a conclusion about
    him.   He can't talk about him."
    Staring at these four terse, quite ambiguous orders,
    we're left to piece together whether the district court's rulings
    meant that Dr. Kraft could not testify about the patterns of sexual
    predators    (i.e.,   the   typical-predator    testimony)     and/or      how
    Soler's actions did not fit those patterns (i.e., the not-a-
    typical-predator testimony).      Reviewing the record, we think Soler
    - 18 -
    was correct to understand the court's orders as precluding Dr.
    Kraft from offering his not-a-typical-predator testimony.4
    First,   we   think   the      district   court's   mid-trial
    qualification made clear that it was, in fact, limiting Dr. Kraft's
    ability to testify concerning Soler's actions in this case.5
    Contrary to the government's appellate position, Soler did not
    have free rein from the district court.6      And the government does
    4 At oral argument, Soler was not clear whether he believed
    he was also precluded from introducing Dr. Kraft's opinion on the
    general pattern of sexual predators, separate from his analysis of
    how that pattern lined up with the facts here.      His appellate
    briefing seems to make clear that he treated the typical-predator
    testimony and not-a-typical-predator testimony as one cohesive
    unit, such that he would not introduce one segment without the
    other. And his post-trial briefing did not suggest that he thought
    the typical-predator portion of the testimony was precluded --
    only the not-a-typical-predator portion. We thus do not understand
    Soler to argue that he was precluded from introducing the limited
    segment of the testimony concerning the general pattern of sexual
    predators. Yet it was completely reasonable for Soler to treat
    Dr. Kraft's testimony as one integrated unit composed of both the
    typical-predator profile and the not-a-typical-predator analysis.
    The two were inextricably intertwined, and offering only the
    profile of an online predator, without the ability to demonstrate
    why he didn't fit that profile, would have been extremely
    prejudicial to Soler.
    5 The government, in its brief, fails to recognize that the
    district court ordered mid-trial that Dr. Kraft "can't talk about
    [Soler]."   Instead, it claims that the district court's "final
    word" on the scope of Dr. Kraft's testimony was the amended order
    on the reconsideration motion, even though Soler's post-trial
    briefing pointed specifically to -- and quoted directly from --
    the court's mid-trial order on the subject.
    6 The district court's citation to Joseph also further
    suggests that it "w[ould] allow the testimony of Dr. Kraft" only
    on the first category of evidence:    the psychology of internet
    fantasy and role-playing.   Indeed, Joseph involved only expert
    evidence of that category. See 542 F.3d at 21–22. It did not
    - 19 -
    not explain how Soler could have, consistent with that mid-trial
    order, elicited testimony about how his actions did not fit a
    predator's m.o. if Dr. Kraft had to "testify in general terms" and
    "[could]n't talk about [Soler]."           Testifying about Soler's actions
    would, of course, have violated that limitation.
    Second, the only apparent confusion about whether the
    not-a-typical-predator testimony was excluded has come from the
    government's appellate counsel.            Indeed, the government's trial
    counsel below agreed in its briefing on Soler's new-trial motion
    that   the   district    court    had     excluded    Dr.   Kraft's     testimony
    concerning whether Soler's actions fit the pattern of an internet
    predator.     As the government put it below:           "[T]he Court properly
    determined that the proposed testimony was irrelevant and, even if
    relevant,    it   should    be    excluded."         That   was   so,   said   the
    government,    because     "Dr.   Kraft    never     evaluated,    examined,    or
    treated Soler so he could not . . . try to draw a comparison [from
    Soler] to other types of sexual predators he may have treated or
    studied."
    involve proposed expert testimony concerning the patterns of
    sexual predators or whether the defendant in that case's actions
    fit the bill of a typical predator.    See id.   If the district
    court's re-reconsideration order was meant to swing open the door
    to expert testimony concerning how Soler's actions lined up with
    those typically expected of a predator, then Joseph would be an
    odd citation.
    - 20 -
    To tie a bow on it, the district court, post-trial,
    agreed with everyone's understanding of its orders.          In denying
    Soler's motion for a new trial, the district court explained:
    "[T]he exclusion of part of Dr. Kraft's expert testimony was
    warranted.   It is undisputed that he did not evaluate, interview,
    meet[,] nor treat [Soler]. . . . Thus, Dr. Kraft could not testify
    as to [Soler]'s state of mind."       In fact, prior to ruling on the
    new-trial motion, the district court ordered Soler to identify
    where in the record each of his new-trial arguments was preserved
    by timely objection.     Responding, Soler pointed to both the pre-
    trial orders and the court's mid-trial can't-talk-about-him order,
    after    which   the   district   court    did   not   correct   anyone's
    understanding of those orders.7
    7 At oral argument, the government argued that the district
    court's in-trial statement was merely a "rehash" of the agreement
    Soler made that he would not ask Dr. Kraft to testify directly
    about his state of mind. But Soler thrice explained that he would
    not ask Dr. Kraft to testify so directly, rather he would ask Dr.
    Kraft to testify only as to a comparison of the activities here to
    the modus operandi of sexual predators. Yet the district court's
    post-trial ruling apparently concluded that the proffered
    testimony, even considering that self-imposed limitation, would
    still have violated Rule 704(b), and the court thus concluded it
    did not err in imposing the limitation about which Soler
    complained.     That makes the government's reading highly
    implausible. To buy it, we would have to assume that the district
    court either ignored or repeatedly misunderstood Soler's
    explanation -- and also the government's similar understanding --
    that the issue presented was whether Dr. Kraft could testify as to
    whether Soler's actions fit the pattern of a typical predator
    without testifying directly about Soler's state of mind.
    - 21 -
    Given the parties' -- and the district court's -- clear
    understanding below of what was and wasn't excluded, we conclude,
    contrary   to        the   government's   contention   here,    that   Soler   is
    correct:       The district court precluded Dr. Kraft's proposed not-
    a-typical-predator testimony.             And so the evidentiary ruling is
    properly before us.
    B.     Merits
    We turn now to examining if the district court was
    correct in barring Dr. Kraft from testifying about whether Soler's
    actions fit the mold of a sexual predator.                 In excluding the
    evidence, the district court appeared to base its decision on two
    rules of evidence:           Rule 704(b) and Rule 403.         We take each in
    turn.
    As we do so, we bear in mind that evidentiary calls are
    generally left to the district court's discretion.              See Maldonado-
    Peña, 4 F.4th at 37; United States v. Galíndez, 
    999 F.3d 60
    , 64
    (1st    Cir.    2021).         Still,   abuse-of-discretion    review   is     not
    toothless.          Jodoin v. Toyota Motor Corp., 
    284 F.3d 272
    , 279 (1st
    Cir. 2002).           A district court abuses its discretion "when a
    relevant factor deserving of significant weight is overlooked, or
    when an improper factor is accorded significant weight, or when
    the court considers the appropriate mix of factors, but commits a
    palpable error of judgment in calibrating the decisional scales."
    - 22 -
    United States v. Taylor, 
    848 F.3d 476
    , 484 (1st Cir. 2017) (quoting
    United States v. Jiménez, 
    419 F.3d 34
    , 43 (1st Cir. 2005)).
    1.   Rule 704(b)
    Admission of expert testimony is governed by Federal
    Rule of Evidence 702.   See Montijo-Maysonet, 974 F.3d at 47.   But
    that's not the only hurdle expert testimony must clear.      Expert
    testimony is still subject to the rigors of other rules, including
    in criminal cases Rule 704(b).    That rule provides that "an expert
    witness must not state an opinion about whether the defendant did
    or did not have a mental state or condition that constitutes an
    element of the crime charged or of a defense," since "[t]hose
    matters are for the trier of fact alone."     Fed. R. Evid. 704(b);
    see United States v. Valle, 
    72 F.3d 210
    , 215 (1st Cir. 1995)
    (recounting the history of Rule 704(b)).
    Applying Rule 704(b), we have held time and again that
    although "Rule 704(b) bars a witness from characterizing the
    defendant's intent, . . . it 'does not . . . apply to predicate
    facts from which a jury might infer such intent.'"    United States
    v. Henry, 
    848 F.3d 1
    , 11 (1st Cir. 2017) (quoting United States v.
    Peña-Santo, 
    809 F.3d 686
    , 694 (1st Cir. 2015)); see Valle, 
    72 F.3d at 216
    ; United States v. Lamattina, 
    889 F.2d 1191
    , 1193-94 (1st
    Cir. 1989).
    Identifying where the line lies in the sand, we have
    held that "a qualified expert does not violate Rule 704(b) by
    - 23 -
    expressing an opinion as to whether predicate facts are consistent
    with drug distribution rather than mere possession."      Henry, 848
    F.3d at 11.     Accordingly, expert testimony that "explained that
    the quantity of crack found at the search site was consistent with
    distribution, as opposed to personal use" in a case concerning
    intent to distribute drugs did not violate Rule 704(b).    Valle, 
    72 F.3d at 216
    .    Nor did an expert's opinion that the drugs at issue
    in a similar case were "packaged for sale" since "the expert
    grounded his opinion that the drugs were packaged for sale on his
    general knowledge of criminal practices and the circumstantial
    evidence bearing on the issue of intent that was produced during
    the trial."     Henry, 848 F.3d at 11.     Similarly, an expert's
    testimony that "recorded conversations involved loansharking" did
    not cross the line into testimony on the defendant's state of mind,
    but rather only "may have provided the jury with some basis for an
    inference as to defendant's state of mind."    Lamattina, 
    889 F.2d at 1194
     (emphasis added).     In sum, we have held repeatedly that
    testimony that a defendant's actions are consistent with the modus
    operandi of illegal activity, though allowing the jury to infer
    the defendant's state of mind, does not violate Rule 704(b)'s
    ultimate-issue prohibition.
    Dr.    Kraft's   not-a-typical-predator   testimony   fits
    comfortably within that rubric.   Dr. Kraft would have compared the
    conversations and surrounding circumstances of this case to the
    - 24 -
    patterns of online predators and identified inconsistencies, thus
    suggesting that Soler's actions did not accord with those of a
    typical predator.       We see no distinction between that testimony
    and a government-offered expert's testimony that the manner in
    which drugs were packaged were consistent with the m.o. of drug
    distributors where the issue was whether the defendant intended to
    distribute drugs.       See Henry, 848 F.3d at 11; Valle, 
    72 F.3d at 216
    .   Nor is there any daylight between the testimony here and the
    testimony      in    Lamattina      concerning    whether      the    recorded
    conversations       "involved    loansharking"    in    a   prosecution    for
    loansharking.       
    889 F.2d at 1194
    .    The only difference is that the
    testimony here was that Soler's actions were not consistent with
    illegal activity.
    In this precise scenario, one of our sister circuits has
    drawn the same conclusion, just on the side of the government.              In
    United States v. Romero, 
    189 F.3d 576
     (7th Cir. 1999), the Seventh
    Circuit faced a defendant's challenge to a government-proffered
    expert   who    testified    that   "hypothetical"     facts   mirroring   the
    defendant's actions were consistent with the patterns of child
    molesters, 
    id.
     at 585–86.           The defendant there was charged with
    various counts related to his transportation of a minor with the
    intent   to    engage   in   criminal   sexual   activity.      
    Id. at 581
    .
    Objecting that the expert's analysis of the supposed hypotheticals
    violated Rule 704(b), the defendant argued that the testimony was
    - 25 -
    tantamount to an opinion on his intent to molest the victim.               
    Id. at 586
    .      The Seventh Circuit rejected that argument.         
    Id.
       Relying
    on case law in that circuit similar to ours in Henry and Valle
    concerning drug distribution, the court said that the testimony
    passed Rule 704(b) comfortably since the expert "never directly
    opined as to [the defendant's] mental state."            
    Id.
         Nor did his
    explanation of "what types of actions might distinguish the actual
    molester from the mere collector of child pornography" violate
    Rule 704(b), even where the defendant admitted an interest in child
    pornography but disclaimed any intent to act on that interest.
    Id.; see 
    id. at 582
    .
    So   too   here.     Dr.   Kraft's   not-a-typical-predator
    testimony, as proffered by Soler, did not cross the line into the
    territory of Rule 704(b).         Rather, his testimony was limited only
    to whether certain facts were consistent with the pattern typically
    seen with individuals who were interested in having sex with
    minors.      Just as an expert may opine on whether the packaging of
    drugs   is    consistent   with   distribution,    Dr.   Kraft    could   have
    permissibly testified about whether Soler's actions here were
    consistent with role-play rather than the pattern of those who
    entice minors into sexual activity.          The district court abused its
    discretion in precluding this testimony under Rule 704(b).
    - 26 -
    2.   Rule 403
    The district court also appeared to conclude that Dr.
    Kraft's not-a-typical-predator testimony should be excluded under
    Rule 403, noting (without citing the rule) that "any probative
    value of the [testimony] is substantially outweighed by confusion
    of the issue at bar, to wit, [Soler]'s state of mind."8      Rule 403
    allows a court to "exclude relevant evidence if its probative value
    is substantially outweighed by," among other reasons, "a danger of
    . . . unfair prejudice, confusing the issues, [or] misleading the
    jury . . . ."   Fed. R. Evid. 403.
    Even though Dr. Kraft's testimony passed the strictures
    of Rule 702's gatekeeping of expert evidence, it was still subject
    to the Rule 403 balancing test.      See United States v. Pires, 
    642 F.3d 1
    , 12 (1st Cir. 2011).     As we have explained before, there is
    a particular worry with expert testimony that "jurors may assign
    more weight to [it] than it deserves."     
    Id.
       Expert testimony "can
    8The district court's reliance on Rule 403 is further muddled
    by its subsequent orders on the issue. In denying Soler's motion
    for reconsideration, it did cite Rule 403, but not for the same
    reason it suggested in its initial order.             Rather, the
    reconsideration order spotted a risk of prejudice or confusion in
    the fact that the evidence would be presented in a vacuum and not
    to support the credibility of Soler's testimony, since Soler to
    that point had not said that he planned to testify in his own
    defense.   Of course, Soler ultimately testified.    And later on
    when denying Soler's motion for a new trial, the district court
    did not again recite its "substantially outweighed" language, but
    merely said that Dr. Kraft's testimony would have offered an
    opinion on Soler's state of mind, thus signaling reliance on Rule
    704(b) -- not Rule 403.
    - 27 -
    carry with it an unwarranted 'aura of special reliability and
    trustworthiness,'" 
    id.
     (quoting United States v. Fosher, 
    590 F.2d 381
    , 383 (1st Cir. 1979)), so "courts must guard against letting
    it intrude in areas that jurors, by dint of common experience, are
    uniquely competent to judge without the aid of experts," 
    id.
    "Because of this risk, the judge in weighing possible prejudice
    against    probative   force   under   Rule   403 . . .    exercises   more
    control over experts than over lay witnesses."       Daubert v. Merrell
    Dow Pharms., Inc., 
    509 U.S. 579
    , 595 (1993) (quoting Jack B.
    Weinstein, Rule 702 of the Federal Rules of Evidence Is Sound; It
    Should Not Be Amended, 
    138 F.R.D. 631
    , 632 (1991)).
    We review district courts' Rule 403 rulings under the
    abuse-of-discretion     framework      detailed   above,    with   a   few
    additional notes.      We have said specifically to Rule 403 that
    district courts have "wide discretion in steadying the . . .
    seesaw."    Pires, 
    642 F.3d at 12
    .     Reflecting our deference for the
    district court's battlefield judgment, it is only in the rarest
    and most compelling cases that "'we, from the vista of a cold
    appellate record,' [will] reject a judge's on-the-scene Rule 403
    ruling."    United States v. Rodríguez-Soler, 
    773 F.3d 289
    , 294 (1st
    Cir. 2014) (quoting DiRico v. City of Quincy, 
    404 F.3d 464
    , 468
    (1st Cir. 2005)).
    Still, the standard for exclusion under Rule 403 is a
    high one.   See United States v. Fahey, 
    769 F.2d 829
    , 841 (1st Cir.
    - 28 -
    1985).   When conducting the Rule 403 balancing test, courts must
    heed that the default rule is that relevant evidence will be
    admitted.    See United States v. Jones, 
    689 F.3d 12
    , 19 (1st Cir.
    2012).   And it is not enough for Rule 403 that the evidence's
    dangers of unfair prejudice or confusion somewhat outweigh the
    probative value of the evidence.    See United States v. Trenkler,
    
    61 F.3d 45
    , 56 (1st Cir. 1995) (concluding prior-bad-acts evidence
    was admissible under Rule 403 even though there was "some danger"
    that the jury would use it to assume a defendant's propensity for
    criminal behavior).     Rule 403 permits exclusion not when the
    evidence is merely outweighed by the dangers of its admission, but
    only when it is "substantially outweighed."   See Fed. R. Evid. 403
    (emphasis added).
    With that framework in mind, and mindful of our bounded
    review, we think the district court -- to the extent it relied on
    Rule 403 in excluding Dr. Kraft's testimony -- erred in determining
    both the probative value of the evidence and, relatedly, that the
    probative value was substantially outweighed by a risk of confusing
    or misleading the jury.
    Probative value.   Dr. Kraft's not-a-typical-predator
    testimony was highly relevant to and probative of the key issue in
    the case. Soler's defense effectively revolved around his argument
    that he was merely role-playing and did not actually believe Janis
    was a minor.    Dr. Kraft's excluded testimony bore directly on the
    - 29 -
    credibility of Soler's testimony concerning his state of mind and
    sought to explain (just in the converse of oft-admitted government-
    expert testimony) how seemingly sinister conduct could be part of
    innocent sexual fantasy.        Cf. United States v. Long, 
    328 F.3d 655
    ,
    666–68   (D.C.   Cir.   2003)    (finding   government   expert's   child-
    molester m.o. testimony probative under Rule 403 because it helped
    show "how seemingly innocent conduct could be part of a seduction
    technique" (cleaned up)).
    The government's arguments made below (again, only below
    because the government does not defend, even in the alternative,
    the district court's exclusion on appeal since it thinks there was
    no exclusion to begin with) do not demonstrate the testimony's
    minimal probative value.        First, although the jury may have been
    familiar with "sexting" and sexual role-play fantasies, we find it
    hard to believe that the jury would be familiar with prototypical
    grooming behavior by an individual seeking out sex with minors and
    thus how that behavior compared to Soler's.9
    Second, we disagree that the testimony's relevance was
    minimal because Soler "was not accused of being a pedophile or
    child molester and he was not charged with possession of child
    9 Nor do we have any information to confirm this speculation
    about the jurors' knowledge of sexting, sexual roleplay, or
    grooming behaviors.   Although Soler proposed certain voir dire
    questions that may have revealed some jurors' familiarity with
    these concepts, the district court declined to ask those questions
    at jury selection.
    - 30 -
    pornography."       The government charged Soler with attempting to
    entice a minor to engage in unlawful sexual activity.                Testimony
    that Soler's actions were inconsistent with the typical m.o. of
    one attempting to entice a minor -- as opposed to engaging in role-
    play with a consenting adult -- is highly relevant to that charge.
    Moreover, Dr. Kraft was not proffered to testify as to whether
    Soler was a pedophile or a child molester.                He was proffered to
    testify only as to whether Soler's actions were consistent with
    patterns    of    known   pedophiles     or    child   molesters,   similar    to
    testimony on whether a defendant's actions are consistent with the
    patterns of other drug dealers in a case charging intentional
    distribution of drugs.
    The    testimony   was      also   relevant   to   respond   to   the
    government's attempt to show that Soler acted like a typical
    predator in an effort to demonstrate his knowledge.              At trial, the
    government elicited testimony from Agent Sieg about his use of
    codewords in the Craigslist post.10              It then asked Agent Sieg:
    "[I]n your experience, who are the people that generally use code
    words[?]"    To which Agent Sieg responded:             "Well, anyone wanting
    to   keep   something     secret   or    their   intentions    masked."       The
    The codewords Agent Sieg referred to were "young," "thin,"
    10
    and "girls" in his initial email to Soler saying: "If you're into
    young thin girls say hi." Sieg testified that he used those words
    because they "are code words among those people who would seek to
    engage in illegal sexual activity with minors."
    - 31 -
    government, of course, was trying to suggest that since Soler
    responded to codewords like others who actually intended to keep
    their intentions masked (which includes those who try to engage in
    sex with minors), the jury should not buy Soler's feigned innocence
    and role-play defense.   Dr. Kraft's testimony would have done the
    same thing, just delivering the opposite inference.
    Thus, to the extent the district court found Dr. Kraft's
    not-a-typical-predator testimony not probative,     we believe   it
    erred.    See Rubert-Torres ex rel. Cintron-Rupert v. Hosp. San
    Pablo, Inc., 
    205 F.3d 472
    , 479 (1st Cir. 2000) (finding abuse of
    discretion in assessment of probative value where we concluded the
    evidence was "highly relevant" to a "central issue" in the case);
    Espeaignnette v. Gene Tierney Co., 
    43 F.3d 1
    , 6 (1st Cir. 1994)
    (similar).   The testimony was, in fact, highly relevant to and
    probative of the central issue in this case:   Soler's belief that
    Janis was a minor.11
    11 Our decision in Pires is not to the contrary. There, a
    defendant sought to introduce expert evidence that he did not have
    any mental illnesses, sexual deviances, or a prurient interest in
    children as evidence that he lacked a motive to possess child
    pornography. 
    642 F.3d at 10
    . Yet we said that evidence was of
    "diminished relevance" because the only question in that case was
    whether the defendant knowingly received and possessed the child
    pornography, not whether he received and possessed the images
    related to a sexual interest in children. 
    Id.
     at 10–12. Here,
    though, Dr. Kraft's testimony was highly probative of whether
    Soler's actions were consistent with role-playing or typical
    grooming behavior. The evidence was thus not "peripheral" as it
    was in Pires. See 
    id. at 12
    .
    - 32 -
    Balancing act.     Given the high probative value of the
    evidence, we expect the countervailing interests weighing against
    the admission to be great to exclude the evidence. "When proffered
    evidence relates to the central issue in a case, it is a difficult
    matter indeed to show that the prejudicial effect of that evidence
    substantially outweighs its highly probative nature, as Rule 403
    requires."    Rubert-Torres, 
    205 F.3d at 479
    .
    But the district court's reasoning, once corrected, is
    not so weighty.       Critically, the district court's assessment of
    the danger of confusion was bound up in its erroneous analysis of
    whether Dr. Kraft would opine on an ultimate issue in the case.
    As   the   district   court   put   it,   "any   probative   value   of   the
    [testimony] is substantially outweighed by confusion of the issue
    at bar, to wit, [Soler]'s state of mind."          Yet as we've explained,
    Dr. Kraft's testimony would not opine on Soler's state of mind --
    it would only offer evidence to the jury from which it could infer
    that Soler did not believe Janis was 13 given that he did not
    operate like a typical predator.             Thus, we think the potential
    danger of confusion posed by the testimony was substantially
    limited when viewed in its proper light.12
    12Nor were the district court's concerns about Dr. Kraft's
    testimony being presented in an evidentiary "vacuum" still
    relevant. At trial, Soler testified and spoke directly to his own
    state of mind.     As the district court admitted, Dr. Kraft's
    testimony could be probative of whether Soler's testimony was
    credible, if he chose to testify.
    - 33 -
    To be sure, we share the district court's concern that
    expert testimony brushing up against -- but not directly touching
    on -- the defendant's state of mind could weigh heavily on the
    jurors' minds.     We have often worried that jurors may be smitten
    by an expert's "aura of special reliability and trustworthiness"
    and therefore "assign more weight to expert testimony than it
    deserves."    E.g., Pires, 
    642 F.3d at 12
    .
    Yet     even    recognizing    that   risk,   there       are   "less
    restrictive     means    to   minimize   the    prejudice    than     entirely
    excluding" testimony.         Rubert-Torres, 
    205 F.3d at 479
     ("Because
    the Federal Rules of Evidence favor the admissibility of evidence,
    less intrusive measures to minimizing the prejudicial effect of
    evidence are preferred to excluding evidence.").            For example, the
    district court instructed the jury that it should not deem Dr.
    Kraft credible merely because he is an expert.          See United States
    v. Encarnacion, 
    26 F.4th 490
    , 506 (1st Cir. 2022) (noting that
    careful jury instructions on the weight to be given to an expert's
    testimony help mitigate risks of unfair prejudice from the expert's
    special stature).        Rather, the district court told the jury that
    credibility calls should be made the same way whether the jury was
    judging Soler, Dr. Kraft, or Agent Sieg.          The district court also
    could have crafted a specific jury instruction that Dr. Kraft's
    testimony should not be interpreted as an opinion on whether Soler
    knew that Janis was a minor, thus blunting the potential danger.
    - 34 -
    See United States v. Morris, 
    576 F.3d 661
    , 676 (7th Cir. 2009)
    (noting   that      limiting      instructions,      as       well     as   careful
    construction of the examinations, can help alleviate risks of
    confusion from expert-criminal-m.o. testimony).                And it could have
    -- as it did on Dr. Kraft's first subject of testimony -- given
    the   government    an    adequate    opportunity        to   cross-examine       Dr.
    Kraft's not-a-typical-predator testimony.                 See Encarnacion, 26
    F.4th at 506.
    *      *     *
    Though       the   district   court     had   "wide       discretion   in
    steadying the Rule 403 seesaw," Pires, 
    642 F.3d at 12
    , it still
    needed to explain why the highly probative value of the evidence
    was so "substantially outweighed" by the risks of confusing or
    misleading the jury that the testimony should have been excluded
    wholesale, Fed. R. Evid. 403; see Rubert-Torres, 
    205 F.3d at 479
    .
    And the need was more pronounced considering the court's allowance
    of Agent Sieg's testimony about the use of codewords. The district
    court failed to do so, thus creating the rare and most-compelling
    case in which we conclude -- and do not do so lightly -- that the
    district court abused its discretion in excluding this testimony
    under Rule 403, too.
    3.     Harmlessness
    Even if we find error in the district court's evidentiary
    ruling, we must affirm if we find the error nonetheless harmless.
    - 35 -
    See Rodríguez-Soler, 773 F.3d at 297.             Non-constitutional errors
    in    admitting   or   excluding     evidence    are   harmless      "unless   the
    evidence 'likely affected' the trial's outcome."               United States v.
    Correa-Osorio, 
    784 F.3d 11
    , 25 (1st Cir. 2015) (quoting United
    States v. Landrón-Class, 
    696 F.3d 62
    , 71 (1st Cir. 2012)).                    Thus,
    we will not reverse "if we can say with fair assurance, after
    pondering all that happened without stripping the erroneous action
    from the whole, that the errors did not substantially sway the
    jury's verdict."       United States v. Rivera-Carrasquillo, 
    933 F.3d 33
    , 46 (1st Cir. 2019) (cleaned up).
    We're not so assured here.          At the end of the day, the
    key issue in this case was whether Soler believed that Janis was
    13.    And though there was substantial evidence from which the jury
    could have concluded that he did, Soler's role-play defense turned
    almost exclusively on the credibility of his testimony.                        Dr.
    Kraft's    not-a-typical-predator         testimony    could    have    provided
    substantial support to Soler's credibility in claiming that he
    truly believed Janis was just an assumed identity of another
    consenting adult.      Whether the jury ultimately buys that story is
    for it to decide.       But we could only speculate as to whether the
    additional    evidence    could    have   swayed   the   jury's      credibility
    determination     on    that   key    element,     leaving     the    error    not
    - 36 -
    harmless.13      See Rubert-Torres, 
    205 F.3d at 480
     ("On such a central
    issue as causation, . . . it would be speculation at best, much
    less    with    fair   assurance,     to   say   that   the    jury   verdict   was
    unaffected by the error."); United States v. Ouimette, 
    753 F.2d 188
    , 193 (1st Cir. 1985) (error not harmless where the excluded
    evidence went to "the core of the defendant's case"); see also
    United States v. Kilmartin, 
    944 F.3d 315
    , 339 (1st Cir. 2019)
    (finding erroneously admitted testimony not harmless to the jury's
    assessment of the defendant's intent since "[i]ntent is inherently
    difficult       to     demonstrate"        and   though       there   was    ample
    circumstantial         evidence   of       intent,   the      defendant     offered
    alternative innocent explanations).14
    CONCLUSION
    For these reasons, we vacate the judgment of the district
    court and remand for a new trial.
    The government suggests that the testimony Dr. Kraft
    13
    actually gave was good enough since the "basic thrust" was to
    suggest that some people merely role-play without acting on it.
    Yet the government glosses over the difference between Dr. Kraft's
    proposed role-play-based testimony and not-a-typical-predator-
    based testimony, which were two distinct categories of testimony.
    The latter builds implicitly on the first (i.e., there is a
    difference between a true predator and a mere role-player), but
    the government has not directed us to anywhere in the record that
    Dr.   Kraft  actually   testified   that   Soler's  actions   were
    inconsistent with the modus operandi of child sex predators.
    Given our conclusion, we need not address whether a new
    14
    trial is required because of alleged prosecutorial misconduct --
    though we do caution the government to take greater care in its
    in-court statements before the jury on remand.
    - 37 -
    - CONCURRING OPINION FOLLOWS -
    - 38 -
    WOODCOCK,   District    Judge,   concurring.     I   write
    separately because I am not convinced that the record establishes
    that Soler properly preserved at the trial court the error he
    presents here as required by Federal Rule of Evidence 103 or that
    the district court ever excluded the expert's evidence about the
    characteristics of sexual predators and their typical patterns of
    behavior and use of the internet.
    Although the district judge changed his mind about the
    admissibility of Dr. Kraft's testimony in prior orders, his final
    ruling just before trial was:
    The order at Docket No. 95 is hereby amended
    as follows.     Should defendant testify at
    trial, following said testimony the Court will
    allow the testimony of Dr. Kraft. See US v
    Joseph, 542 F3d 13, 21 (2nd Cir. 2008).
    Nothing in this final order intimated that the defendant would not
    have been allowed to present Dr. Kraft's full testimony as Soler
    proposed it, including his testimony about sexual predators and
    the internet.   I am unable to conclude that the district judge
    would have disallowed Dr. Kraft's testimony on sexual predation
    because, following this order, Soler never moved its admission and
    never received a definitive ruling against its admission.
    Tracking the way this issue developed at trial, I see
    the district judge's first concern turning on whether Dr. Kraft
    would be allowed to testify if Soler did not take the stand, an
    offshoot of the government's argument that Dr. Kraft's opinion
    - 39 -
    testimony should not be a backdoor way of admitting Soler's
    testimony. In my view, the district judge was rightfully concerned
    about the prospect of Dr. Kraft testifying about Soler and then
    Soler declining to testify, leaving Dr. Kraft's testimony - to the
    extent it relied upon Soler's testimony - being without foundation.
    Once defense counsel informed the jury in the opening statement
    that Soler intended to take the stand, the district judge's concern
    on this point was alleviated, but the district judge still had the
    obligation to enforce Federal Rule of Evidence 704(b), which
    prohibited Dr. Kraft from expressing an opinion "about whether the
    defendant did or did not have a mental state or condition that
    constitutes an element of the crime charged or a defense."        Fed.
    R. Evid. 704(b).
    I   see   Soler's   argument   that   he   preserved   this
    evidentiary issue by giving the prior Notice of Expert as falling
    flat.   It is true that a definitive ruling on a pretrial motion in
    limine may preserve an objection to an evidentiary ruling without
    requiring the party to renew the objection at trial.    Fed. R. Evid.
    103(b); United States v. Grullon, 
    996 F.3d 21
    , 30 (1st Cir. 2021);
    Zachar v. Lee, 
    363 F.3d 70
    , 75 (1st Cir. 2004) ("The 2000 Amendment
    to Federal Rule of Evidence 103 specifically provides that once
    the district court     'makes a definitive ruling on the record
    admitting . . . evidence, either at or before trial, a party need
    not renew an objection . . . to preserve a claim of error for
    - 40 -
    appeal.'" (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 103(a)(2), now denominated as
    Fed. R. Evid 103(b))).    The problem here is that, as just noted,
    the district judge's last ruling before trial allowed the expert's
    testimony without qualification.     As a result, in my view, the
    defendant's motion in limine and Notice of Expert did not preserve
    this issue on appeal because the district court's superseding
    ruling allowed the expert's testimony to come in at trial (under
    the condition that Soler testify, which he did).
    It appears to me that the defense confused the district
    judge's repeated rulings about Federal Rule of Evidence 704(b)
    with a ruling excluding the expert's testimony on sexual predation.
    The line between proper and improper expert testimony in this area
    is subtle and it strikes me that the district judge's concern that
    the expert not "talk about [Soler]" was a reminder that Rule 704(b)
    prohibits an expert from expressing opinions about a defendant's
    state of mind.   My view is buttressed by the fact that the district
    judge emphasized both during trial and in the post-trial order
    that Dr. Kraft never interviewed Soler and therefore could not
    testify about him.
    To the extent that the defense was confused about the
    district judge's rulings and the line between proper and improper
    expert testimony, the burden was on defense counsel to obtain a
    definitive ruling and, if the evidence were disallowed, to make an
    offer of proof. Fed. R. Evid. 103(a)(2) ("[I]f the ruling excludes
    - 41 -
    evidence, a party informs the court of its substance by an offer
    of proof, unless the substance was apparent from the context.");
    see Kelley v. Airborne Freight Corp., 
    140 F.3d 335
    , 347 (1st Cir.
    1998); Earle v. Benoit, 
    850 F.2d 836
    , 847 (1st Cir. 1988) ("[I]t
    is precisely for such a situation, where a court refuses to receive
    evidence and yet the same is needed to elucidate proponent's claim
    for admissibility, that the offer of proof device exists.").
    We do not know what would have happened at trial if
    defense counsel had complied with Federal Rule of Evidence 103,
    approached sidebar, cited United States v. Romero, 
    189 F.3d 576
    (7th Cir. 1999), and informed the judge that the defense would
    like to explore Dr. Kraft's expert views about the significance of
    already   admitted   evidence,   namely   the   online   chats,   and   to
    elucidate Dr. Kraft's views of the hallmarks of an online predator,
    such as the presence of collections of child pornography, the
    grooming of children, and employment or activities that involve
    children, and how those hallmarks compared to Soler's background
    and behavior as already set forth on the record or to be supplied
    by Soler's later testimony.      The defense could have reminded the
    judge that none of this proffered evidence would have suggested
    what the defendant himself thought, only what Dr. Kraft in his
    expert opinion would have expected to find in a case of online
    sexual predation and that any opinion as to how Soler's behavior
    compared with typical sexual predators was based on the evidence
    - 42 -
    presented at trial and not a clinical examination.       If the defense
    had done so, we would know for certain whether the trial judge
    would have excluded all, part, or none of Dr. Kraft's proposed and
    unpresented testimony.    But we do not know how the district judge
    would have ruled because, after the judge ruled all of Dr. Kraft's
    testimony admissible, the district judge was never squarely asked
    to make a definitive ruling excluding any portion of it.
    Finally, my reading of the record is further supported
    by the fact that on cross-examination of Dr. Kraft, the district
    judge allowed the government, over the defense's objection, to
    extensively discuss sexual predation.      Even after the government
    elicited this testimony, the defense made no effort to present Dr.
    Kraft's   sexual   predation   testimony   on   the   ground   that   the
    government had opened the door.      Instead, the defense asked no
    further questions of Dr. Kraft.
    Before we assign error to a district court's evidentiary
    ruling, we should be clear that the trial court actually excluded
    the admissible evidence and typically the burden is on the losing
    party to demonstrate that he clarified his objection and obtained
    a definitive ruling excluding the evidence.      See Grullon, 996 F.3d
    at 30-31 ("[W]hen a judge issues a preliminary, conditional, or
    'tentative' ruling that 'clearly invites the party to offer the
    evidence at trial,' then the party has an obligation to raise it
    again to preserve the claim." (quoting United States v. Almeida,
    - 43 -
    
    748 F.3d 41
    , 50 (1st Cir. 2014)); United States v. Takesian, 
    945 F.3d 553
    , 562 (1st Cir. 2019) ("Rule 103 requires the objecting
    party . . . 'to clarify whether an in limine or other evidentiary
    ruling is definitive when there is doubt on that point.'" (quoting
    Crowe v. Bolduc, 
    334 F.3d 124
    , 133 (1st Cir. 2003))).
    Despite my reservations about whether the error was
    preserved and whether the district judge committed any error, I am
    concurring, not dissenting, because after the trial, the defendant
    and the government both treated Dr. Kraft's evidence on sexual
    predation   as   having   been   excluded.   In   its   response   to   the
    defendant's claim in his post-trial briefing that Dr. Kraft's
    sexual predation testimony should not have been excluded, the
    government did not claim that the district judge never excluded
    it.   To the contrary, in its post-trial memorandum, the government
    argued:
    Accordingly, the Court properly determined
    that the proposed testimony was irrelevant
    and, even if relevant, it should be excluded
    because its probative value was far outweighed
    by the potential for confusing and misleading
    the jury, and unnecessarily protracting the
    trial.
    In contrast, the trial judge's post-trial ruling does
    not appear to be based on the parties' mutual misunderstanding of
    the basis for exclusion at trial:
    [T]he exclusion of part of Dr. Kraft's expert
    testimony was warranted.    It is undisputed
    that he did not evaluate, interview, meet nor
    - 44 -
    treat defendant. He himself admitted this at
    trial upon questioning by the Court.    Thus,
    Dr. Kraft could not testify as to defendant's
    state of mind.
    In my view, the parties' post-trial arguments and the
    district judge's post-trial ruling pass like ships in the night.
    The parties, including the government, claim that the trial court
    excluded Dr. Kraft's proposed testimony as irrelevant, and the
    trial judge reiterates that he excluded only Dr. Kraft's testimony
    about the defendant's state of mind, which is consistent with Rule
    704(b).
    The situation evidenced by the record is thus unusual,
    if not unique.      Fairly read, I cannot find a defense objection
    consistent with the preservation requirements of Federal Rule of
    Evidence 103, but the record strongly suggests that both the
    government    and   the    defense   believed   that   the   district    judge
    excluded   the    sexual    predation   part    of   the   proffered    expert
    testimony.       If only the defendant had misunderstood the trial
    judge, it would be one thing, but here, as evidenced by its post-
    trial filing, the government was also under the misimpression that
    the trial judge had excluded this part of Dr. Kraft's testimony as
    irrelevant.    From the government's post-trial filing, I agree that
    even if the government's position does not quite tie the bow on
    the question of preservation, both parties, for whatever reason,
    treated the district judge's rulings and reminders as prohibiting
    - 45 -
    the   sexual    predation    testimony   of    Dr.   Kraft    rather    than    as
    reminders of the boundaries of Rule 704(b).            In my view, although
    the issue is a close one, there is enough play within Federal Rule
    of Evidence 103(e) to allow us to reach the substantive question,
    even absent proper preservation.          Fed. R. Evid. 103(e) ("A court
    may take notice of a plain error affecting a substantial right,
    even if the claim of error was not properly preserved.").
    Given this conclusion, and for the reasons well stated
    by the majority, I join in the majority's conclusion that the jury
    should have been presented with Dr. Kraft's proposed testimony
    about   sexual     predation     and     the   internet,      including        the
    characteristics     and     behavioral   patterns    of   a   typical    online
    predator.      I am also influenced by the majority's view that Dr.
    Kraft's expert opinion on the hallmarks of online sexual predation
    and the significance of the online chats in this case could have
    made a difference in the jury verdict and therefore, I concur with
    the majority's resolution of this appeal.
    - 46 -