Karth v. Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc. ( 2021 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 19-1964
    TIM KARTH,
    Plaintiff, Appellant,
    ABRAHAM KISWANI; RICHARD J. ERICKSON; RICHARD B. KING, JR.;
    TERRELL JACKSON,
    Plaintiffs,
    v.
    KERYX BIOPHARMACEUTICALS, INC.;
    RON BENTSUR; SCOTT A. HOLMES;
    GREGORY P. MADISON; JAMES OLIVIERO,
    Defendants, Appellees.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF MASSACHUSETTS
    [Hon. Denise J. Casper, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Thompson, Lipez, and Kayatta,
    Circuit Judges.
    Jeffrey Craig Block, with whom Jacob A. Walker, Nathaniel
    Silver, and Block & Leviton LLP were on brief, for appellant.
    Laurence Adam Schoen, with whom John F. Sylvia, Geoffrey A.
    Friedman, and Mintz, Levin, Cohn, Ferris, Glovsky and Popeo, P.C.
    were on brief, for appellees.
    July 9, 2021
    [REDACTED OPINION]*
    *The full version of this opinion was filed on June 21, 2021,
    and remains on file, under seal, in the Clerk's Office.
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.             Before us on appeal is a
    dispute between Tim Karth, an investor who lost money when he
    bought stock that saw its value plummet soon after that purchase,
    and Keryx Biopharmaceuticals, Inc., and its executives, all of
    whom allegedly swindled Karth out of his hard-earned cash by
    misleading him about the likelihood that Keryx would be able to
    continue to meet demand for its only drug product.                    Though, at
    various   points,   the    case    contained      a   myriad   of    claims     and
    experienced a long procedural history, the parties agree that the
    entirety of the appeal is resolved by addressing one question:
    did Keryx sufficiently warn investors about the vulnerability of
    its   manufacturing   infrastructure        so    that   Karth      knew   of   the
    investment risks when he purchased his shares?            The district court
    answered that question in the affirmative and entered judgment for
    the defendants, denied Karth's motion for class certification, and
    denied Karth's motion to file a third amended complaint. Reviewing
    the case with fresh eyes, we affirm.
    BACKGROUND
    We recite the alleged facts pertinent to our inquiry as
    contained   in   Karth's    complaint    and      attachments       incorporated
    therein in the light most favorable to the non-movant, Karth.                   See
    Curran v. Cousins, 
    509 F.3d 36
    , 43-44 (1st Cir. 2007).                     Karth's
    proposed class consists of anyone who purchased Keryx stock from
    May 8, 2013, through August 1, 2016. Karth himself purchased Keryx
    - 3 -
    stock     at   the    end    of   that    class    period,     on    July    19,   2016. 1
    Accordingly, the following recitation of the facts is limited to
    occurrences during the purported class period, with a particular
    focus on the events of 2016, the year of Karth's stock purchase
    and     Keryx's      supply       shortage.        We    set        forth    the   facts
    chronologically,           interspersing      information      about      manufacturing
    difficulties with information Keryx made known to the public.
    Keryx's Leadership and Manufacturing Process
    At    all    relevant      times,    Keryx      was    a     Boston-based
    biopharmaceutical company.               The four individual defendants served
    in different corporate roles.                  Ron Bentsur          was Keryx's CEO.
    Gregory P. Madison was Keryx's COO starting February of 2014 and
    took over for Bentsur as CEO at the end of April of 2015.                          James
    Oliviero served as CFO for Keryx from May of 2003 until July of
    2015, when he was replaced by Scott A. Holmes.
    During      the    proposed    class     period,      Keryx    commenced
    production and sale of its only product, a drug named Auryxia.
    There were two steps in the Auryxia production process.                        Step one
    was manufacturing the active pharmaceutical ingredient ("API") and
    1Karth's First Amended Complaint (the operative pleading at
    the time the district court granted judgment for the defendants)
    pleads that the class period ends on August 1, 2016, but his
    proposed Third Amended Complaint alleges a class period ending on
    July 29, 2016, or July 31, 2016. We utilize the August 1, 2016,
    date because that date seems to be the date he cites most
    consistently, but the outcome would not be altered by the class
    period ending on any of Karth's listed dates.
    - 4 -
    step two was converting the API into its finished tablet form.
    The tablet, when prescribed by a doctor, was used to treat kidney
    disease.   Keryx lacked the ability to complete any manufacturing
    itself and relied upon third-party contractors for each step of
    the process.   Keryx appears to have enlisted several first-step
    manufacturers to produce API. As for step two, during the relevant
    time frame, Keryx only contracted with Norwich Pharmaceuticals,
    Inc. ("Norwich"), whose principal place of business is Norwich,
    New York, to complete the process of converting the API into the
    final product, tablets of Auryxia.
    The Early Days:    2013-2015
    On May 8, 2013, the first day of Karth's proposed class
    period, Keryx released a 10-Q form2 that warned investors of the
    following risk:
    We rely on third parties to manufacture and
    analytically test our drug candidate.      If
    these third parties do not successfully
    manufacture and test our drug candidate, our
    business will be harmed.     We have limited
    experience in manufacturing products for
    clinical or commercial purposes. We intend to
    continue, in whole or in part, to use third
    parties to manufacture and analytically test
    our drug candidate for use in clinical trials
    and for future sales. We may not be able to
    enter into future contract agreements with
    2 The SEC requires public companies to file a comprehensive
    report about their financial performance, called a 10-Q, at the
    end of the first three quarters of each fiscal year. 
    17 C.F.R. § 249
    .308a.
    - 5 -
    these third[]parties on terms acceptable to
    us, if at all. (Emphases added.)
    Beginning in 2014, Norwich experienced problems with the
    process of converting API into Auryxia tablets.                     In May, one API
    contractor asked Keryx to "quarantine" the API that company had
    produced pending the outcome of a quality control investigation.
    In June, Norwich notified Keryx that it "rejected" two batches of
    Auryxia due to contamination found in a tablet.                          In July, in
    response    to       those    reports,   Keryx    instructed    Norwich      to    stop
    production, but ordered it to resume the next day, which it did.
    Shortly after Keryx began navigating these manufacturing
    glitches,       it   was     also   preparing    to   meet   with    Food   and    Drug
    Administration ("FDA") officials.               To that end Keryx enlisted the
    help   of   a    consultant,        Parexel   International,        to   "assess    the
    readiness [of Norwich] in preparation for an FDA pre-approval
    inspection."         Parexel's work, which took place on August 14 and
    15, 2014, consisted of a "conference room review of documentation
    available relative to the production and controls [of Auryxia]
    that would likely be reviewed during an FDA inspection."                     Parexel
    did not visit Norwich's production facilities.                  Once it completed
    its assessment, it sent Bentsur a report on August 22.                        In it,
    Parexel found that Norwich had the "appropriate facilities and
    expertise to meet the needs of Keryx," but warned that Norwich was
    employing an uncommon system for validating the quality of each
    - 6 -
    step of the production.      Given Norwich's approach, the Parexel
    Report warned that "[i]t has not been demonstrated that the
    manufacturing process will consistently produce product that meet
    final specifications."
    The   FDA    approved    Auryxia     for   commercial    sales   in
    September of 2014 and in December of 2014, sales began.              At that
    time, the company had enough supply to meet patient demand.
    Nevertheless, at a board of directors meeting, directors were
    advised that investors had expressed disappointment that doctors
    were not prescribing the drug at a high enough rate to make
    investing in Keryx sufficiently profitable.
    Two     thousand   and     fifteen     brought   a      couple   of
    manufacturing developments.        One of the API manufacturers had to
    discard approximately one-third of the API it produced because of
    quality issues.       API problems then caused batches of product
    produced at Norwich to fail to meet quality standards, which caused
    production to halt.     By October of 2015, however, production had
    so outpaced sales that Keryx had "too much inventory" and planned
    to destroy up to 1,632 bottles of Auryxia before their expiration
    date in March of 2016 if sales didn't pick up.             In December of
    2015, Keryx provided its board with an update on the company's
    financial posture.     Of import, it learned that the company had an
    inventory of 14,000 bottles for commercial sale and more than
    - 7 -
    18,000 bottles for patient samples.3      Additionally, the board
    learned that Keryx had to pay a contractual penalty of $2.6 million
    to Norwich because Keryx did not sell enough Auryxia to utilize
    Norwich's full production capacity.   During this same meeting, the
    board discussed the company's draft five-year plan.   One presenter
    (who was not clearly identified in the record) reported to the
    board about risks related to the company's sale of Auryxia.   Among
    those risks, the presenter identified that solely contracting with
    Norwich for step two manufacturing posed a risk of a "[s]upply
    disruption" and a "[l]oss of credibility with customers" and
    characterized the "probability" of that risk materializing as
    "medium." Because of this risk, the draft five-year plan contained
    several "high" priorities, one of which was to contract with
    additional second-step manufacturers.
    Publicly, Keryx made written disclosures relevant to
    Karth's claims.   Through the end of 2015, whenever it informed
    investors of the risks to the company's bottom line, Keryx used
    the plural term "third parties" to characterize the number of
    outside manufacturers responsible for producing Auryxia, just as
    it had at the start of the class period.       In its 2015 annual
    report, Keryx reported on the status of its drug supply, including
    3 Generally, each bottle of Auryxia for commercial sale
    contained 200 pills and bottles for use as a sample contained 50
    or 200 pills.
    - 8 -
    the value of its inventory of Auryxia pills and raw materials to
    produce more Auryxia, and included the need to destroy its excess
    stock before expiration.
    The Year of Keryx's Supply Shortage:         2016
    In January of 2016, Keryx conducted an internal review
    and concluded that since sales began in 2014, Norwich had produced
    ninety-three "batches" of Auryxia and, of those, five were rejected
    for "varying reasons."        When February rolled around, one Keryx
    employee sent an internal e-mail on the 16th, describing the
    company's    supply   of   sample-size   bottles   of   Auryxia   as   "VERY
    CRITICAL" because the stock was very low.
    February 2016 Disclosure and Concurrent Problems
    On February 25, 2016, Keryx issued a press release that
    declared "the fundamentals of Auryxia are solid" and projected
    between $31 million and $34 million in Auryxia sales in 2016.            The
    next day, Keryx released its 2015 10-K (what we'll call the
    "February 2016 Disclosure" from here on out).4              In it, Keryx
    reported $10.1 million in net sales of Auryxia in 2015 and warned
    investors:
    We currently depend on a single supply source
    for Auryxia drug product. If any of our
    suppliers   were   to  limit   or   terminate
    production, or otherwise fail to meet the
    4 A 10-K is a comprehensive report filed annually by public
    companies about their financial performance.        The report is
    required by the SEC and is far more detailed than an annual report.
    
    17 C.F.R. § 249.310
    .
    - 9 -
    quality or delivery requirements needed to
    supply Auryxia at levels to meet market
    demand, we could experience a loss of revenue,
    which could materially and adversely impact
    our results of operations. (Emphasis added.)
    The February 2016 Disclosure also announced that Keryx "believe[d]
    that [it had] established contract manufacturing relationships for
    the supply of Auryxia to ensure that [it would] have sufficient
    material for clinical trials and ongoing commercial sales."   That
    same day, on a conference call with investors, Holmes reiterated
    the projected 2016 sales figures and reported that Keryx was
    "encouraged with the solid fundamentals [of] Auryxia."
    The record is unclear as to how the sample-size shortage
    got resolved but by the start of March of 2016, any previous issues
    had been eliminated because Keryx recorded having a stock of 10,301
    sample-size bottles to meet a projected demand of 5,574 bottles.5
    Keryx also began March with 5,688 bottles of Auryxia for commercial
    sale to meet a projected demand of 4,333 bottles. Keryx's internal
    projections forecasted that, by the end of the month, Norwich would
    produce an additional 12,540 bottles of Auryxia for commercial
    use.
    On March 23, 2016, an inspection of some of the API
    batches Norwich had received from a first-step contractor revealed
    Karth suggests that the sample-size bottle supply issue was
    5
    never resolved, but the Keryx documents attached to Karth's
    complaint include records of production having resumed by the end
    of February.
    - 10 -
    they       were   contaminated   so   Norwich     halted     production   to
    investigate.       The probe confirmed that one facility, referred to
    as a "large batch" facility, was the source of contaminated API.
    Nonetheless, another facility, referred to as a "small batch" API
    supplier could still provide Norwich with untainted API for Auryxia
    production, so it shifted to using that "small batch" facility.6
    Despite this setback, Keryx's internal forecast at the
    start of April projected that the company had enough supply to
    meet commercial demand for the entire month.                This apparently
    proved to be true as Karth complains of no supply interruption in
    April or May of 2016 and the records attached to the complaint
    plainly reflect Keryx's supply outpacing demand through August.7
    April 2016 Disclosure and Concurrent Problems
    By April 27, 2016, Norwich had notified Keryx that it
    had    discovered    contamination    in   a   batch   of   API.8   Norwich
    There is nothing in the record that explains the differences
    6
    between "large batch" and "small batch" facilities. As such, we
    have no reason to assume (and Karth does not argue) that a "small
    batch" facility produces a drastically different total amount of
    API.
    At the start of March, Keryx had intended for Norwich to
    7
    produce 3,300 bottles of Auryxia for commercial sale during the
    month of April.    By the start of April, Keryx increased its
    projections for Norwich's monthly production to 7,154 bottles.
    Norwich actually produced 3,920 commercial-use bottles during that
    month to add to Keryx's existing stock of 6,188 commercial-use
    bottles. This exceeded April sales of 4,944 bottles.
    8 In
    the proposed Third Amended Complaint, Karth summarizes an
    e-mail between two Keryx employees (but not the defendants here)
    - 11 -
    communicated to Keryx that it had found contamination, but had not
    yet determined why and stopped production to investigate.
    The next day, Keryx announced its financial results for
    the first quarter of 2016 in a press release, a conference call,
    and its 10-Q statement.   In the 10-Q statement (or the "April 2016
    Disclosure," as we'll call it from here), Keryx again warned
    investors:
    We currently depend on a single supply source
    for Auryxia drug product. If any of our
    suppliers, including the source of Auryxia
    drug product, were to limit or terminate
    production, or otherwise fail to meet the
    quality or delivery requirements needed to
    supply Auryxia at levels to meet market
    demand, we could experience a loss of revenue,
    which could materially and adversely impact
    our results of operations. (Emphases added.)
    On the conference call, Madison told investors that Keryx was "off
    to a good start" and that the company had "established solid
    fundamentals for Auryxia, including enhancing brand awareness."
    Madison further reported that Keryx had expanded its sales force
    and was "confident in [its] ability to achieve [its] net sales
    guidance."   At the same time, Keryx internally projected that it
    in which those employees discussed Norwich's discovery of
    contamination and noted Norwich's initial belief that this was "an
    isolated incident." Karth does not allege that Keryx knew of the
    contamination problem prior to those employees discussing the
    problem via e-mail and his allegation, as best we tell, is that at
    the time of the April 27, 2016, e-mail, Keryx thought Norwich had
    found contamination and had stopped production to investigate the
    cause of this problem.
    - 12 -
    would continue to have sufficient stock to meet upcoming demand so
    long as some production occurred, even with a projected increase
    in sales.
    The April 27, 2016, API issue at Norwich proved to not
    be an   "isolated incident" as first thought.              The production
    stoppage continued through May but was finally resolved and Norwich
    planned to resume production on June 1, 2016.             On May 24, 2016,
    Keryx internally reviewed the potential for a supply shortage and
    concluded that there would be no shortage if Norwich could adhere
    to the planned schedule for restoration.            However, if Norwich
    experienced additional production issues, Keryx predicted its
    supply of Auryxia would run out on June 19, 2016.              Norwich was
    able to resume production as planned and continued to do so,
    apparently    without   incident,   into   July.    Accordingly,      Keryx
    experienced no supply shortages in June or July of 2016.
    Summer 2016 Production Problems
    Notwithstanding   the   adequacy   of   the    actual   Auryxia
    supply, July did usher in more production headaches.           On July 12,
    2016, Norwich notified Keryx that it observed a structural problem
    with some Auryxia tablets during one step of the manufacturing
    process.     An investigation followed but production did not stop.
    On July 22, Madison informed Keryx's board that Norwich's current
    production run was proceeding without issue and that production
    appeared to be on track for the next planned shipment of Auryxia.
    - 13 -
    Norwich continued producing Auryxia until July 26, 2016, when it
    again discovered the same structural problem during a different
    step of the manufacturing process.   Norwich then halted production
    and commenced an exploration of the source of the structural
    problem.
    Once drug production stopped, Keryx estimated it would
    run out of its Auryxia supply in one to two weeks if nothing
    changed.   Keryx wrote a letter to the FDA explaining as much and
    describing the circumstances that led to this impending shortage.
    Keryx reported that two problems with API in the Spring of 2016
    had "constrained supply" but Keryx and Norwich had worked together
    to correct and prevent the repetition of those API problems.    The
    structural problem that arose for the first time in July of 2016
    presented a different issue.    Because neither Norwich nor Keryx
    had as yet identified its cause, they did not then have a solution.9
    Meanwhile, on July 19, 2016, Karth enters the scene:   he purchased
    his Keryx stock.    As of that date, Keryx had not released any
    information to the public about these July production setbacks.
    The Supply Shortage
    With the manufacturing problems unresolved, on August 1,
    2016, Keryx issued a press release withdrawing its 2016 financial
    9 Keryx requested that the FDA expedite approval of an
    alternative drug supplier or permit Keryx to use the sample-size
    bottles to meet patient needs. The record does not contain the
    FDA's response.
    - 14 -
    projections and characterizing an Auryxia supply interruption as
    "imminent" due to "a production-related issue . . . at its contract
    manufacturer."        On a call with investors that same day, Madison
    explained      that    Norwich     "[had]   been      successfully        producing
    commercial batches for approximately two years" and that "in [the]
    past    few    months,    [Norwich]     began    experiencing       difficulties
    converting [API] to finish[ed] drug product."                  Madison further
    explained that, prior to that impending shortage, Keryx "had been
    managing supply levels efficiently even with increased demand
    . . . in the second quarter."               Keryx's stock value decreased
    thirty-six percent.
    Karth Sues for Securities Fraud
    From    Karth's    perspective     as      spelled    out    in   his
    complaint, Keryx and the individual defendants knew that the
    company only employed a single manufacturer, Norwich, and that
    relying solely on Norwich for the second step of production created
    a much greater risk of a supply interruption than Keryx admitted
    to     investors.        Keryx's    inadequate        disclosures     about     its
    manufacturing defects, says Karth, amounted to securities fraud.
    Accordingly, Karth sued Keryx and the individual defendants for a
    violation of §§ 10(b), 20(a) of the Securities Exchange Act of
    1934,    15   U.S.C.     §§ 78j(b),    78t(a),     and    Securities       Exchange
    Commission Rule 10b-5, 
    17 CFR § 240
    .10b-5.                As a reminder, Karth
    brought the case as a class action with a putative class of
    - 15 -
    investors who purchased Keryx stock between May 8, 2013, the day
    Keryx first published a risk disclosure claiming, as Karth views
    it, to have more than one second-step manufacturer, and August 1,
    2016, the day Keryx announced an interruption of its supply of
    Auryxia.
    After litigation and quite a bit of discovery, the
    defendants moved for judgment on the pleadings.                         The defendants
    characterized        the    February         and     April    2016    Disclosures    as
    "corrective disclosures" and argued that, even if Keryx had misled
    investors about the number of third-party manufacturers and the
    appurtenant risk in earlier disclosures, those misrepresentations
    were clearly corrected in February and April of 2016.10                       So, the
    argument goes, when Karth purchased Keryx stock in July of 2016,
    he was fully informed about Keryx's single-manufacturer process
    and   the     investment's        resultant          risk.      Therefore,     Keryx's
    statements were not misleading when Karth purchased his stock.
    Karth,     naturally,      disagreed         and    contended    that    Keryx's    risk
    disclosures     from       May   8,    2013,       onward    misled   investors     into
    believing      that     the      company       employed       multiple     second-step
    manufacturers when, in reality, it only contracted with Norwich.
    And   while    the    February        and    April    2016    Disclosures    may    have
    To remind, each of those disclosures included the following
    10
    statement:   "We currently depend on a single supply source for
    Auryxia drug product." (Emphasis added.)
    - 16 -
    accurately quantified the number of second-step manufacturers as
    one, each undersold the true degree of investment risk because
    Keryx knew that Norwich was having production problems when it
    released those disclosures.     As a result, Karth alleged, investors
    purchased Keryx stock without appreciating the fragility of its
    manufacturing infrastructure and the precarious nature of its
    ability to consistently turn a profit.            Therefore, he argues,
    Keryx's August 1, 2016, revelation that it only contracted with
    one second-step manufacturer, who was struggling to meet demand,
    caused the stock price to precipitously drop.               In addition to
    opposing    the   defendants'     motion,   Karth    moved     for   class
    certification and to file a Third Amended Complaint (his motion to
    file a second amended complaint having already been denied).           The
    proposed Third Amended Complaint relied on many of the same
    documents as the operative complaint and beefed up the allegations
    regarding   the   defendants'   knowledge   of    Keryx's    manufacturing
    infrastructure struggles.       These augmentations, Karth claimed,
    were enough to demonstrate that the February and April 2016
    Disclosures were insufficient.
    When analyzing all of the pending motions, the district
    court assumed, without deciding, that Keryx's risk disclosures
    issued prior to February of 2016 were misleading but held that the
    February    and    April   2016     Disclosures     cured      any   prior
    misrepresentations because each accurately stated that Keryx only
    - 17 -
    employed one manufacturer, Norwich, for the second step of the
    production process.11      Since Karth purchased his stock in July of
    2016,     after   Keryx   published   both   curative    disclosures,   the
    district court held that Karth could not plead any relationship
    between his own financial loss and the defendants' prior alleged
    misrepresentations or omissions.
    With the "corrective disclosures" at the core of its
    reasoning, the district court issued an omnibus order, denying
    both of Karth's motions and allowing the defendants' motion for
    judgment on the pleadings. Specifically, the district court denied
    Karth's motion for class certification because it found Karth to
    be an atypical and inadequate class representative, reasoning that
    Karth's claims would be too different from the claims of any
    potential class members who purchased stock prior to the release
    of the February and April 2016 Disclosures.             The district court
    allowed the defendants' motion for judgment on the pleadings
    because Karth could not plead that he relied upon misleading
    statements when he purchased his stock.        Finally, citing futility,
    the district court denied Karth's motion to file a Third Amended
    11Early in the litigation, the defendants moved to dismiss,
    arguing, among other things, that the plural "third-party
    manufacturers" language could refer to Keryx's multiple first-step
    manufacturers and was therefore not misleading. For reasons that
    need not be detailed here, the district court did not allow the
    defendants' motion on these grounds and neither side wrestles with
    that contention before us.
    - 18 -
    Complaint because nothing in the proposed Third Amended Complaint
    changed the court's conclusion that the February and April 2016
    Disclosures cured any earlier misrepresentations.          After resolving
    each of those motions, the district court entered judgment for the
    defendants.      Karth timely appealed.
    OUR TAKE
    Karth's notice of appeal lists all three decisions of
    the district court as the orders he wants reversed.         Typically, we
    would   review    each   decision   thoroughly,   likely   beginning       our
    analysis by reviewing whether the district court erred in entering
    judgment for the defendants on Karth's First Amended Complaint and
    then turning to questions of class certification and the proposed
    Third   Amended    Complaint.       However,   Karth   appears   to   be   as
    dissatisfied with his First Amended Complaint as the district court
    was because he makes no argument here that the district court's
    grant of judgment on that pleading was erroneous.          Karth also does
    not contend that the motion for class certification, which was
    analyzed based upon the allegations in the First Amended Complaint,
    should have been granted.       Rather, Karth is solely interested in
    his case moving forward via the proposed Third Amended Complaint.
    To that end, his only request for relief is that we declare the
    February and April 2016 Disclosures to be "misleading" and remand
    the case to the district court to proceed with the Third Amended
    - 19 -
    Complaint.12      We accept Karth's invitation to focus on the proposed
    Third Amended Complaint and freshly evaluate whether the district
    court properly denied the motion to amend or whether the proposed
    Third Amended Complaint does indeed state a claim.
    Standard of Review and Analysis
    Where the district court's denial of a motion to amend
    is   based   on    the   legal   conclusion   that   the   proposed   amended
    complaint fails to state a claim, we review that decision de novo.
    D'Agostino v. ev3, Inc., 
    845 F.3d 1
    , 6 (1st Cir. 2016).           Where, as
    here, there has been considerable written discovery (Karth calls
    it "significant"), we "look more closely at the factual allegations
    to see if they support the legal conclusions pled."             Glassman v.
    Computervision Corp., 
    90 F.3d 617
    , 628 (1st Cir. 1996) (evaluating
    proposed amended complaint in securities fraud action after "three
    years of litigation and full discovery").            In conducting our de
    novo review, "we assume as true the raw facts as alleged in the
    12Lest we think Karth believes his First Amended Complaint
    does state a claim, the defendants note in their brief that Karth
    offers us no reason to vacate the judgment on the pleadings or
    reverse the motion for class certification. Karth, for his part,
    does not bother to dispute this waiver argument in his reply brief.
    Seeing no need to dig any deeper, we deem any challenges to the
    district court's decisions, other than to the denial of the motion
    to amend, waived and, consequently, affirm across the board.
    United States v. Zannino, 
    895 F.2d 1
    , 17 (1st Cir. 1990) ("[T]he
    settled appellate rule [is] that issues adverted to in a
    perfunctory manner, unaccompanied by some effort at developed
    argumentation, are deemed waived.").
    - 20 -
    [proposed Third Amended Complaint] and draw reasonable inferences
    in favor of [Karth]."       In re Bos. Sci. Corp. Sec. Litig., 
    686 F.3d 21
    , 27 (1st Cir. 2012).       We "may supplement the facts contained in
    the    pleadings    by    considering    documents        fairly    incorporated
    therein."    R.G. Fin. Corp. v. Vegara-Nuñez, 
    446 F.3d 178
    , 182 (1st
    Cir. 2006).        There is no one-size-fits-all way of analyzing
    securities    fraud      cases;   rather,    we    take     a   "'fact-specific
    approach' that proceeds case by case." In re Cabletron Sys., Inc.,
    
    311 F.3d 11
    , 38 (1st Cir. 2002).            All of this is to say that we
    evaluate all facts in the complaint and the incorporated documents
    to determine whether Karth's proposed Third Amended Complaint
    states a claim.
    The Private Securities Litigation Reform Act ("PSLRA")
    plays an important role in our review.            The PSLRA was "enacted 'to
    curb    frivolous,       lawyer-driven   litigation,        while     preserving
    investors' ability to recover on meritorious claims.'"                In re Bos.
    Sci. Corp. Sec. Litig., 686 F.3d at 29–30 (quoting Tellabs, Inc.
    v. Makor Issues & Rights, Ltd., 
    551 U.S. 308
    , 322 (2007)).                    To
    effectuate that goal, the PSLRA requires a plaintiff to "specify
    each statement alleged to have been misleading, the reason or
    reasons why the statement is misleading, [and to] state with
    particularity facts giving rise to a strong inference that the
    defendant acted with the required state of mind." 15 U.S.C. § 78u–
    4(b); see In re Bos. Sci. Corp. Sec. Litig., 686 F.3d at 30 ("Taken
    - 21 -
    together, the [PSLRA] requirements make it easier to identify the
    issues and to dismiss flawed complaints at the complaint stage.").
    "[A]lthough       'the    PSLRA      does    not     require    plaintiffs     to    plead
    evidence . . . a significant amount of "meat" is needed on the
    "bones" of the complaint.'"              Ganem v. InVivo Therapeutics Holdings
    Corp., 
    845 F.3d 447
    , 455 (1st Cir. 2017) (quoting Hill v. Gozani,
    
    638 F.3d 40
    , 56 (1st Cir. 2011)).
    The Securities Exchange Act
    Section 10(b) of the Securities Exchange Act makes it
    unlawful for any person to "use or employ, in connection with the
    purchase     or   sale    of       any   security     . . .     any   manipulative        or
    deceptive device or contrivance in contravention of such rules and
    regulations       as   the    Commission       may    prescribe       as   necessary     or
    appropriate in the public interest or for the protection of
    investors."       15 U.S.C. § 78j(b).              The Commission has promulgated
    such a regulation, making it illegal to "make any untrue statement
    of a material fact or to omit to state a material fact necessary
    in   order   to    make      the    statements       made,     in   the    light    of   the
    circumstances under which they were made, not misleading."                          
    17 CFR § 240
    .10b–5(b).          Taken together, this means that a successful
    securities fraud complaint will allege the following six elements:
    "(1) a material misrepresentation or omission by the defendant[s];
    (2) scienter; (3) a connection between the misrepresentation or
    omission and the purchase or sale of a security; (4) reliance upon
    - 22 -
    the misrepresentation or omission; (5) economic loss; and (6) loss
    causation."       Amgen Inc. v. Conn. Ret. Plans & Tr. Funds, 
    568 U.S. 455
    , 460-61 (2013) (citation omitted).13
    "To establish a material misrepresentation or omission,
    [Karth] must show that [the] defendants made a materially false or
    misleading statement or omitted a material fact necessary to make
    a statement not misleading."        Ganem, 845 F.3d at 454 (citation
    omitted).        "[W]hether a statement is misleading depends on the
    perspective of a reasonable investor."        Omnicare, Inc. v. Laborers
    Dist. Council Constr. Indus. Pension Fund, 
    135 S. Ct. 1318
    , 1327
    (2015).     Information is material "if a reasonable investor would
    have viewed it as 'having significantly altered the total mix of
    information made available.'"      Miss. Pub. Emps.' Ret. Sys. v. Bos.
    Sci. Corp., 
    523 F.3d 75
    , 85 (1st Cir. 2008) (quoting Basic, Inc.
    v. Levinson, 
    485 U.S. 224
    , 232 (1988)).         We consider the entirety
    of the relevant facts available at the time of the allegedly
    misleading statement, not simply the words of the statement itself.
    See In re Smith & Wesson Holding Corp. Sec. Litig., 
    669 F.3d 68
    ,
    75-77     (1st   Cir.   2012).   "[I]f   an   alleged   omission   involves
    speculative judgments about future events, materiality will depend
    13 Karth's claim against the individual defendants pursuant
    to § 20(a) is for each individual's alleged role in violations of
    § 10(b) and Rule 10b-5. See 15 U.S.C. § 78t. Therefore, if Karth
    cannot make out a § 10(b) violation, his § 20(a) claim fails as
    well.
    - 23 -
    at   any   given   time    upon   a   balancing   of   both   the   indicated
    probability that the event will occur and the anticipated magnitude
    of the event in light of the totality of the company activity."
    Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 57
     (alterations adopted) (emphases omitted)
    (internal quotation marks and citations omitted).             We review that
    "totality" from the perspective of what the defendants knew at the
    time, meaning "[Karth] may not plead 'fraud by hindsight'; i.e.,
    a complaint 'may not simply contrast a defendant's past optimism
    with less favorable actual results' in support of a claim of
    securities fraud."        ACA Fin. Guar. Corp. v. Advest, Inc., 
    512 F.3d 46
    , 62 (1st Cir. 2008) (quoting Shaw v. Dig. Equip. Corp., 
    82 F.3d 1194
    , 1223 (1st Cir. 1996)).
    Karth's Case
    Our analysis focuses on the "total mix of information
    . . . available" to Karth at the time of his stock purchase in
    July of 2016.      See Basic, 
    485 U.S. at 232
    .          The district court
    based its decisions upon its conclusion that the February and April
    2016 Disclosures cured any prior misrepresentations and the fact
    that those disclosures (and the concurrent comments to investors)
    were among the last public statements made by Keryx prior to
    Karth's purchase.14       So, those statements are a large part of that
    14The defendants argue that Karth waived any argument that
    the February and April 2016 Disclosures were misleading because he
    did not specifically allege that those disclosures were misleading
    - 24 -
    "total mix of information" available to Karth at the time of his
    purchase.     See 
    id.
         Karth concedes that the singular language in
    each of those risk disclosures resolved any confusion about how
    many second-step manufacturers Keryx engaged but argues that those
    risk     disclosures     were   nonetheless   misleading        because   each
    understated the true risk of solely relying upon Norwich.
    This is not our first occasion to consider whether a
    risk     disclosure     sufficiently   advised    investors      of   possible
    negative outcomes.       Primarily, all agree, two decisions guide our
    analysis here:        Hill v. Gozani, 
    638 F.3d 40
     (1st Cir. 2011) and
    Tutor Perini Corp. v. Banc of Am. Sec. LLC, 
    842 F.3d 71
     (1st Cir.
    2016).
    Hill involved a medical device company, NeuroMetrix,
    whose profits were dependent on doctors purchasing the device and
    receiving sufficient reimbursement from patients' health insurance
    carriers.     
    638 F.3d at 46-49
    .       For various reasons, there were
    concerns     that     insurance   providers      would   stop     reimbursing
    physicians for use of NeuroMetrix's product, which would lead to
    in his proposed Third Amended Complaint and the high pleading
    standard for Karth's claim requires him to specify each allegedly
    misleading statement. Rather than wade into the nuances of that
    argument, we address the issue directly because Karth's argument
    "is wrong on the merits." United States v. Leavitt, 
    925 F.2d 516
    ,
    517 (1st Cir. 1991).
    - 25 -
    a drop in purchases, and, ultimately, profit.15   Id. at 50-51.   The
    plaintiffs alleged that, though the company "specifically . . .
    disclosed" a possibility of that insurance risk materializing,
    those disclosures were too vague to properly warn investors of
    what could occur.   Id. at 60.   We affirmed dismissal, holding that
    "although knowledgeable employees . . . believed the [insurance
    reimbursement] strategy was both losing and potentially dangerous,
    there is simply nothing in the complaint to suggest that . . . the
    danger posed by the reimbursement strategy was, at the time the
    statement was made, a near certainty of ruin."    Id. at 59 (emphasis
    added).   Considering that, we held that while a generic, formulaic
    disclosure of risk does not necessarily absolve the speaker of
    liability, "neither does it create liability simply because it
    does not disclose, at the level of detail the plaintiffs request
    15 In Hill, NeuroMetrix staff attempted to advise physicians
    about how to report procedures to insurance companies in ways that
    maximized the likelihood of reimbursement, but there was internal
    disagreement about whether that strategy was legal. 
    638 F.3d at 47-49
    . NeuroMetrix did warn investors that, if insurance companies
    denied coverage of the procedures at issue, physicians would be
    unlikely to purchase the product on a widespread basis.
    NeuroMetrix presented this risk as something that "may" occur which
    "could potentially adversely impact [its] future revenues." 
    Id. at 56, 66
    . When NeuroMetrix made these disclosures, some insurance
    companies had already declined to reimburse physicians. 
    Id. at 48-49
    .    One employee at NeuroMetrix even began logging all
    instances where reimbursement was an issue but was ordered to stop
    so as not to create an obligation for NeuroMetrix to disclose any
    of this to physicians. 
    Id. at 49
    .
    - 26 -
    in retrospect, all of the factors that contribute to the risk
    assessment."    
    Id. at 60
     (emphasis omitted).
    In Tutor Perini Corp., the defendant, Banc of America
    Securities, LLC ("BAS"), serving as the special banking advisor to
    the plaintiff, Tutor, a giant construction company, recommended
    investments    that   were   intended   to   satisfy   Tutor's   investment
    priorities of "avoiding risks and illiquidity."           842 F.3d at 76-
    78.   After a few years of guiding Tutor's investment strategies,
    BAS persuaded Tutor to purchase auction rate securities ("ARS").16
    Id. at 78.     Eventually, the ARS market turned sour and BAS knew
    that the market was on the "brink of collapse."           Id. at 88.   BAS
    "knew about an impending collapse" and instructed its own personnel
    to "protect" the company by encouraging investors to purchase ARS,
    so that BAS would not be left holding these securities when the
    market imploded. Id. at 81-83. Following that internal directive,
    BAS sold quite a bit of ARS to Tutor and at the same time, assured
    Tutor that it would continue to support ARS auctions, so that Tutor
    would never be stuck with these investments when it needed cash.
    Id. at 83.    At the height of Tutor's ARS shopping spree, the market
    16 ARS are investment vehicles that are bought and sold at
    nonpublic auctions and, if an auction fails because there are not
    enough bids within the applicable parameters, the ARS owner is
    left holding onto its investment until the next auction. Id. at
    77-79. If Tutor wanted to sell its ARS in order to have more cash
    on hand and auctions for Tutor's ARS were to fail, Tutor would be
    left illiquid, unable to sell its investment on its preferred
    timeline. Id.
    - 27 -
    collapsed entirely (just as BAS knew it would).             "Tutor Perini was
    left holding 'illiquid' investments—its nightmare scenario."                  Id.
    at 83.
    With   each   of    those        ARS   sales,    BAS   had     included
    disclosures that stated, "BAS offers 'no assurances' about the
    outcome of any auction."      Id. at 83.         Tutor sued for securities
    fraud and argued that those warnings, though they technically put
    Tutor on notice that purchasing ARS was a risk, were insufficient
    to absolve BAS of liability.         Id.     We agreed and held that BAS's
    particular relationship with Tutor required far more than general
    disclosures.     Id.    BAS    had    expressly      promised      to    "provide
    investment solutions that [met Tutor's] needs by clearly defining
    the risk/reward of particular securities."                Id. at 87 (internal
    quotation marks omitted).      Yet, when BAS saw the risk-to-reward
    ratio of ARS shifting, it did not say so. Id. Rather, it continued
    to push ARS on Tutor as if nothing had changed.              Id.   Considering
    all of that, we held that BAS "knew (but elected not to disclose)
    that the ARS market teetered on the brink of collapse when it
    encouraged Tutor Perini to snatch up more ARS."                    Id. at 91.
    Therefore, BAS could not hide behind generic disclosures and, when
    it communicated the risk of purchasing ARS to Tutor, it had a duty
    to disclose that the risks had "dramatically changed."                  Id. at 87.
    Each of these cases, at least in their reasoning, invoke
    the "Grand Canyon" metaphor, where one cannot tell a hiker that a
    - 28 -
    mere ditch lies up ahead, if the speaker knows the hiker is
    actually approaching the precipice of the Grand Canyon.                See id.
    at 90.    That (non-existent) Grand Canyon in Hill was the "near
    certainty" (or lack thereof) that insurers would stop covering
    NeuroMetrix's product and that physicians thereafter would not
    purchase it.    See Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 59
    .      In Tutor Perini, the Grand
    Canyon was the meltdown of the ARS market that BAS was so certain
    was imminent that it pushed ARS onto Tutor to save itself.                 See
    Tutor Perini, 842 F.3d at 93.         Moreover, BAS knew Tutor's specific
    financial goals, level of risk tolerance, and precisely what it
    feared:     illiquidity.   Id.   So, Tutor was more than just a hiker
    near the Grand Canyon; it was a hiker that had hired BAS as a
    wilderness guide with the explicit instruction to steer clear of
    cliffs because of a fear of heights.
    Examining Hill and Tutor Perini, as well as other,
    similar cases, we can understand the contours of what makes a risk
    so great that it is akin to the Grand Canyon (and therefore a
    disclosure     is   misleading   if    it   frames   the   risk   as    merely
    hypothetical) and what makes a situation merely risky (i.e., simply
    a ditch).    A securities fraud defendant is at the edge of the Grand
    Canyon where the alleged risk had a "near certainty" of causing
    "financial disaster" to the company.           Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 59-60
    ;
    accord Tutor Perini, 842 F.3d at 90.            Of course, the defendant
    company must have understood the near certainty of the risk at the
    - 29 -
    time it made the statements at issue.              ACA Fin. Guar. Corp., 
    512 F.3d at 62
    .       Such knowledge is often evidenced by a company's
    frenzied,      underhanded     efforts      "to   keep    the     house   of   cards
    standing."      In re Cabletron Sys., Inc., 311 F.3d at 24.                     If a
    company   is    "desperate[ly]"      working      to     "protect    itself"    from
    rapidly approaching harm, then it is at the edge of the Grand
    Canyon and must warn investors of an imminent cliff. Tutor Perini,
    842 F.3d at 88-91.          A company must also disclose a relevant risk
    if that risk had already begun to materialize.                    See id. at 86-88
    (holding defendant company could be liable where warned-of risk
    was actually occurring, but risk disclosures remained vague and
    hypothetical); see also Berson v. Applied Signal Tech., Inc., 
    527 F.3d 982
    ,    986   (9th    Cir.   2008)    (holding      risk    disclosure    was
    insufficient where company warned revenue could fall short of
    projection, but omitted that it had already had its revenue stream
    "immediately interrupt[ed]" by stop-work orders).
    In contrast, a defendant company is merely approaching
    a ditch where, internally, there was no "widely-accepted certainty
    of failure" or "comprehensive cover-up."                 Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 59
    .
    If the company did not "kn[ow] with certainty" that a risk would
    materialize, it is not necessarily liable for characterizing that
    risk as a "future risk."         Wilson v. Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc., 
    671 F.3d 120
    , 130-31 (2d Cir. 2011).             This standard does not require
    a company to be omniscient, even if the company looks foolish in
    - 30 -
    hindsight for not properly predicting whatever harm befell it.
    Greenstone v. Cambex Corp., 
    975 F.2d 22
    , 25-26 (1st Cir. 1992).
    As we have said before, "fraud by hindsight" is not enough to
    sustain a claim.     ACA Fin. Guar. Corp., 
    512 F.3d at 62
    .
    What This Means for Karth
    The Grand Canyon in this case, according to Karth, is
    the "supply interruption" that Keryx announced was imminent on
    August 1, 2016.     According to Karth, Keryx knew it was approaching
    a cliff and failed to warn investors.        Specifically, Karth argues
    here that the February and April 2016 Disclosures were too general
    and were misleading because each characterized the risk of a supply
    interruption   as    hypothetical   when,   according   to   Karth,   that
    disruption was actively occurring.          Karth additionally contends
    that Keryx undersold the true risk of using a single manufacturer
    by declaring in the February 2016 Disclosure that Keryx had enough
    contract manufacturers.     Karth also calls misleading various press
    releases and statements made during conference calls in 2016, where
    Keryx, generally, and Holmes and Madison, individually, touted the
    "solid fundamentals" of Auryxia and reported that the company was
    "off to a good start."      Reading the allegations in the complaint
    and attached records in the light most favorable to Karth's case,
    we conclude that the facts alleged do not indicate that a supply
    interruption was happening or was even close to a "near certainty."
    Nor do they indicate a "widely-accepted certainty of failure" at
    - 31 -
    the time any of Keryx's statements were made.     See Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 59-60
    .
    The February 2016 Disclosure and Concurrent Statements
    Karth claims the February 2016 Disclosure and concurrent
    statements were misleading because none informed investors that
    Norwich was struggling to produce Auryxia.17     However, Karth sets
    forth no facts in his complaint showing that a supply interruption
    was looming at that time.    Indeed, our review of the record shows
    that in the month prior, Keryx's assessment of its manufacturing
    protocol demonstrated that over ninety percent of the batches of
    Auryxia produced at Norwich met all quality standards.     Plus, it
    shows Keryx was having no issues with production of Auryxia for
    commercial sales and finished February of 2016 with over one
    thousand commercial-use bottles beyond what the company predicted
    it needed for the coming month.         See 
    id. at 57
     (holding that
    information may not be material if company did not internally
    predict the event in question would come to pass).
    The only production issue that Karth plausibly pleads is
    that in early February, Norwich was struggling to produce enough
    17As a reminder, on February 25, 2016, Keryx issued a press
    release describing Auryxia's "fundamentals [as] solid" and its
    leadership made similarly positive public statements; and on
    February 26, 2016, Keryx released the February 2016 Disclosure,
    which included a disclosure to investors that Keryx was relying on
    "a single supply source."
    - 32 -
    sample-size bottles of Auryxia.18          Yet, Karth does not plead that
    a supply interruption actually occurred (including of sample-size
    bottles), that anyone at Keryx thought such an interruption was
    approaching, or that these production problems impacted Keryx's
    revenue at all.        See Williams v. Globus Med., Inc., 
    869 F.3d 235
    ,
    242-43    (3d   Cir.    2017)   (holding   that,     where   securities   fraud
    defendant warned of hypothetical risk to revenue, company was not
    liable for failing to disclose the risk had actually occurred if
    the risk did not impact revenue).          Instead, Keryx understood from
    historical experience that          occasional     production stoppages at
    Norwich had not caused shortages of Auryxia.            Recall that in 2014,
    2015, and several times in 2016, Norwich stopped production, often
    due to issues with API produced by first-step manufacturers, and
    each time, Norwich resumed production before any supply shortage
    panned out.      Those stoppages were apparently so inconsequential
    that Keryx had an excess stock of 1,632 bottles of Auryxia slated
    for destruction by March of 2016. Karth pleads no facts suggesting
    Keryx should have thought, for the first time, that a production
    stoppage    would       necessarily     yield   an     uncorrectable      supply
    interruption.       See Hill, 
    638 F.3d at 59
     (holding that omitted
    18Karth pleads that one employee characterized the supply of
    sample-size bottles as "very critical" but the records of the
    actual number of sample-size bottles exceeded predicted demand and
    (after that month ended) actual demand. Karth says nothing about
    the supply of full-size commercial-use bottles at the time of the
    February 2016 Disclosure.
    - 33 -
    information may not be material if the event was unlikely to
    occur).   For the same reasons, Karth has no case based upon the
    February 25, 2016, public statements.           Considering what Keryx and
    the individual defendants knew at the time, those statements are
    merely expressions of "past optimism" that Karth may not turn into
    "fraud by hindsight."        See Shaw, 
    82 F.3d at 1223
    .
    The April 2016 Disclosure and Concurrent Statements
    Moving closer to the time of Karth's stock purchase,
    Karth pleads that for several reasons, the April 2016 Disclosure
    and concurrent press statements touting Auryxia's viability were
    inadequate, but as we view it, he sets forth insufficient facts as
    to why that is so.       For instance, Karth characterizes Norwich's
    production stoppage on March 24, 2016, as yet another ongoing
    supply interruption which should have caused Keryx to provide
    heightened risk information to investors in its April disclosures.
    But Karth's own complaint pleads that Norwich addressed that issue
    by switching its source of API.           Also, our record review shows
    that just like in February of 2016, Keryx's internal forecast for
    production   in   May   of   2016,   written    in   the   middle   of   April,
    projected that the company had enough supply to meet commercial
    demand for the entire month of May.           That prediction came true and
    Keryx's supply exceeded demand until August.               Therefore, at the
    time the April disclosures were made, it seemed Keryx had solved
    any production problem before anyone in the company thought the
    - 34 -
    patient supply of Auryxia was at risk.   See Tutor Perini, 842 F.3d
    at 90 (holding risk disclosures insufficient where company knew
    with "near certainty" that risk was going to materialize).    Karth
    himself describes the risk as conditional, not impending, alleging
    that, in March, the defendants "knew that if full production did
    not resume within April, a supply interruption would occur by mid-
    May."   Appellant's Opening Br. at 31.
    In further support of his argument to us that the April
    2016 Disclosure is misleading, Karth repeatedly characterizes it
    as being published "in the middle of a 5-week production stoppage."
    However, his own complaint and its appended documents tell a very
    different story.   In truth, the earliest Karth alleges that Keryx
    knew of the problem that yielded a five-week production stoppage
    was April 27, 2016, and the April 2016 Disclosure was released the
    next day, far from the middle of a production interruption.   Plus,
    at the time Keryx released the April 2016 Disclosure, Norwich, as
    we gather from Karth's complaint, had given Keryx no reason to
    think there was a likely systemic production problem.        Compare
    Wilson, 
    671 F.3d at 133-34
     (affirming dismissal where defendants
    did not "kn[ow] with certainty" that warned-of risk would occur),
    with Berson, 
    527 F.3d at 986
     (holding that hypothetical warning
    was insufficient when defendant company knew that revenue was
    already impacted at time of disclosure).    Even Karth pleads that
    Keryx "assum[ed] that the Norwich production issues would be
    - 35 -
    resolved."        A risk disclosure is not fraudulent simply because a
    company makes reasonable assumptions that, in retrospect, prove
    incorrect.    See ACA Fin. Guar. Corp., 
    512 F.3d at 62
    .
    For that same reason, Keryx's positive public statements
    about Auryxia in April are just as benign as the statements in
    February — Keryx's own manufacturer, Norwich, from what we can
    discern from the record before us, thought this might have been an
    "isolated incident" and was investigating the issue.                         See Shaw, 
    82 F.3d at 1223
    .       Further, at the point of the April 2016 Disclosure
    and related public statements, Keryx had even more reason than in
    February     of     2016     (when       it     published      the   other    challenged
    disclosure) to think that Norwich would rectify any production
    problems     before        they     impacted         supply,     because    Norwich   had
    successfully done so in February and March.                      See Tutor Perini, 842
    F.3d at 90.
    A Few Loose Ends
    Karth      raises        two       more     arguments     that    merit    some
    discussion.       First, he highlights the Parexel Report from 2014 as
    evidence   that      Keryx        knew   all     along    that    Norwich     would   have
    production problems.              This does not align with the text of the
    Report, appended to the complaint.                       In reality, Parexel, after
    conducting a "conference room review of documentation" but not
    visiting Norwich, concluded that Norwich had the "appropriate
    facilities and expertise to meet the needs of Keryx," but cautioned
    - 36 -
    that, because of Norwich's uncommon validation system, it "ha[d]
    not    been   demonstrated        that   the   manufacturing   process   w[ould]
    consistently produce product that [met] final specifications."                 At
    best (for Karth's case), the Parexel Report warned Keryx that 1)
    Norwich's production process was not guaranteed to be flawless
    and, 2) at least by implication, if Norwich experienced enough
    production problems, Keryx's bottom line could suffer.19                 This is
    precisely the risk Keryx warned investors, like Karth, about in
    the February and April 2016 Disclosures:               if Norwich were to "fail
    to meet the quality or delivery requirements needed to supply
    Auryxia at levels to meet market demand, [Keryx] could experience
    a     loss    of     revenue."       Therefore,     even    accepting    Karth's
    characterization of the 2014 Parexel Report, we do not see how it
    amounts to any certainty that a 2016 supply interruption was
    imminent.      See Tutor Perini, 842 F.3d at 90.
    Second, as to the February and April 2016 Disclosures,
    Karth's argument that the language was "too boilerplate" simply
    does not align with text of the disclosures.               A disclosure can be
    insufficient where it does not include any "meaningful cautionary
    language,"         but   merely   warns    investors    that   no   results   are
    guaranteed.         Lormand v. U.S. Unwired, Inc., 
    565 F.3d 228
    , 244-45
    If Keryx did not pick that up from the Parexel Report in
    19
    2014, it had certainly learned by 2016 that Norwich's work could
    be inconsistent.
    - 37 -
    (5th Cir. 2009).   In contrast, the disclosures here specifically
    identify the risk — the use of a single manufacturer who could
    fail to produce enough Auryxia "to meet market demand" — and
    explained what that would mean for investors — "a loss of revenue."
    Relatedly, Karth argues that the risk disclosures should have
    specifically included the language "supply interruption."    It is
    difficult to see how that particular phrasing would be material to
    investors, but the synonymous warning that the company might fail
    "to meet market demand" would not be.   See Basic, 
    485 U.S. at 232
    (holding information is material if it would have "significantly
    altered the total mix of information made available" (internal
    quotation marks omitted)).
    Though it may be a tough pill to swallow, the district
    court properly denied Karth's motion to amend as futile.    Karth's
    proposed Third Amended Complaint fails to state a claim because
    the pleadings and attachments, when appropriately scrutinized,
    fail to show Keryx made material misrepresentations or omissions
    upon which Karth relied when he purchased Keryx's stock.
    WRAP UP
    We affirm the entry of judgment and award costs to the
    defendants.
    - 38 -