Shea v. United States ( 2020 )


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  •           United States Court of Appeals
    For the First Circuit
    No. 17-1899
    ANTHONY M. SHEA,
    Petitioner, Appellant,
    v.
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Respondent, Appellee.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF NEW HAMPSHIRE
    [Hon. Paul J. Barbadoro, U.S. District Judge]
    Before
    Thompson, Selya, and Barron,
    Circuit Judges.
    Wade M. Zolynski, Federal Public Defender Office, for
    appellant.
    Seth Aframe, Assistant United States Attorney, for appellee.
    September 28, 2020
    THOMPSON, Circuit Judge.           In Johnson v. United States,
    
    576 U.S. 591
    , 597 (2015), the Supreme Court held that a jumble of
    words in a federal law could not be used to fix a defendant's
    sentence, a rule that applies retroactively.              See Welch v. United
    States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1257
    , 1264 (2016).            Years ago, judges used the
    same wording in another binding rule with "the force and effect of
    law[ ]," United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 234 (2005) —
    § 4B1.2(a)(2)     of     the   U.S.      Sentencing    Guidelines      —     to   fix
    defendants'       sentences.              Because      Johnson        made        that
    unconstitutional, we reverse the district court's decision denying
    the motion to vacate and remand for further proceedings.
    Background
    Twenty-five years ago, Anthony M. Shea drove a stolen
    minivan to try to rob a bank in Londonderry, New Hampshire.                       See
    United States v. Shea, 
    159 F.3d 37
    , 38 (1st Cir. 1998).                      Using a
    pair of revolvers, Shea and another robber marched two bank tellers
    to the vault.      
    Id.
         When the tellers couldn't open it (a timed
    locking device kept it shut), Shea and his partner left empty-
    handed.    
    Id.
        One week later, Shea's criminal career came to an
    abrupt    stop:    after       another    aborted     robbery    in   neighboring
    Massachusetts, his getaway car hit a telephone pole.                   See United
    States v. Shea, 
    150 F.3d 44
    , 47 (1st Cir. 1998).                 A squad of FBI
    agents, who'd been in hot pursuit, pulled Shea from the wreckage
    and a black revolver from his pants.                   See 
    id.
            One of the
    - 2 -
    Londonderry tellers later identified the gun as the weapon Shea
    had used in New Hampshire.     Shea, 
    159 F.3d at 38
    .
    For the Londonderry robbery, Shea was tried in the
    federal court for the District of New Hampshire, where a jury found
    him guilty of four charges:    armed attempted bank robbery under 
    18 U.S.C. § 2113
    (a) and (d), using a firearm during a crime of
    violence under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c), interstate transportation of a
    stolen vehicle under 
    18 U.S.C. § 2312
    , and interstate possession
    of a stolen vehicle under § 2312.        Id. at 38.    For purposes of
    Count Two, § 924(c)(3) defined "crime of violence" as a felony
    offense that
    (A) has as an element the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against the person
    or property of another, or
    (B) that by its nature, involves a substantial risk
    that physical force against the person or property
    of another may be used in the course of committing
    the offense.
    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3).      The government alleged that Count One —
    the armed attempted bank robbery — qualified as a "crime of
    violence."     Soon after the guilty verdict, the judge sentenced
    Shea to 567 months (that is, over forty-seven years) in federal
    prison, where he dwells to this day.1
    1 Shea was also prosecuted in the District of Massachusetts
    for the aborted robbery there and received a sentence of 382 months
    in prison. Shea, 
    150 F.3d at 47
    . Today, he is also serving a
    life sentence for a later set of convictions for a string of bank
    - 3 -
    At the time, the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines ordinarily
    set the range of sentences the judge could impose.               Then, as they
    do now, the Guidelines gave each defendant two scores — an "offense
    level" (based on the seriousness of his offense of conviction,
    plus specified aggravating and mitigating facts in the defendant's
    particular case) and a "criminal history category" (based on the
    defendant's    prior   convictions).         United    States    v.   Martínez-
    Benítez, 
    914 F.3d 1
    , 2 n.2 (1st Cir. 2019).                  The judge plotted
    those two scores on a chart and got the applicable sentencing
    range.   
    Id.
          When    Shea   was   sentenced,      the    Guidelines      were
    "mandatory and binding on all judges."          Booker, 543 U.S. at 233.
    To begin with, Shea's crimes of conviction and (fairly
    long) criminal history gave him an offense level of 28 and a
    criminal history category of V.            See U.S. Sentencing Guidelines
    Manual ch. 3, pt. A (U.S. Sentencing Comm'n 1995) (hereinafter
    "U.S.S.G.").    Standing alone, that would have yielded a Guideline
    range of 130–162 months in prison, plus the mandatory twenty-year
    consecutive    sentence   for    his   §   924(c)     conviction,     which   was
    unaffected by the Guideline calculation — nothing to shrug off.
    As then required, however, the judge classified Shea as a "Career
    Offender" under § 4B1.1, which applies when a defendant commits
    his third "crime of violence" or "controlled substance offense."
    and armored car robberies he and his gang committed in the mid-
    90s. See United States v. Shea, 
    211 F.3d 658
    , 664 (1st Cir. 2000).
    - 4 -
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1.     At the time, the Guidelines defined "crime of
    violence" like the Armed Career Criminal Act ("ACCA"), 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (e)(2)(B), defined "violent felony":            as a felony offense
    that
    (1) has as an element the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against the person
    of another, or
    (2) is burglary of a dwelling, arson, or
    extortion, involves use of explosives, or otherwise
    involves conduct that presents a serious potential
    risk of physical injury to another.
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a) (1997) (emphasis added). (Stick a pin in this:
    the first sentence is known as the "force clause" and the last,
    catch-all phrase is known as the "residual clause").             The court
    determined that two of Shea's past convictions — one in 1982 for
    federal armed bank robbery and another in 1992 for assault and
    battery on a police officer ("ABPO") under Massachusetts law —
    both fit the bill. At the time, they were both qualifying offenses
    under the residual clause.        See United States v. Fernandez, 
    121 F.3d 777
    , 778–80 (1st Cir. 1997); United States v. McVicar, 
    907 F.2d 1
    , 1 (1st Cir. 1990).     The Career Offender Guideline rocketed
    Shea's Guideline range (again minus the twenty-year § 924(c) tack-
    on) from 130–162 months to 262–327 months in prison.            Because the
    Guidelines    were   mandatory,   and   no   one   (including   the   judge)
    identified any ground for departure, Shea claims that none was
    - 5 -
    available, which meant the judge had to sentence him within the
    Guideline range.
    A lot changed in the next twenty years.             In Booker, the
    Supreme      Court      held     the      mandatory      Guidelines          system
    unconstitutional and struck the provision that made them binding
    on judges.     543 U.S. at 245.        Now the Guidelines are "effectively
    advisory."     Id.    "Although [they] remain 'the starting point and
    the initial benchmark' for sentencing, a sentencing court may no
    longer rely exclusively on the Guidelines range; rather, the court
    'must   make   an     individualized     assessment     based    on    the   facts
    presented' and the other statutory factors."                  Beckles v. United
    States, 
    137 S. Ct. 886
    , 894 (2017) (quoting Gall v. United States,
    
    552 U.S. 38
    ,     49–50   (2007);    see    also   Gall,   522     U.S.   at   50
    (explaining that a sentencing judge may not even "presume the
    [guideline] range is reasonable").
    Then, five terms ago, the Court held that "imposing an
    increased sentence under the residual clause of the [ACCA] violates
    the Constitution's guarantee of due process" because the clause
    was unconstitutionally vague.          Johnson, 576 U.S. at 606.         In doing
    so, the Court overturned its own precedent and announced a "new
    rule" of law — a rule not "dictated by precedent."                  Welch, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1264
     (emphasis omitted) (quoting Teague v. Lane, 
    489 U.S. 288
    , 301 (1989)).        "Generally, new rules of law do not apply to
    cases concluded before the new law is recognized."               Butterworth v.
    - 6 -
    United States, 
    775 F.3d 459
    , 463 (1st Cir. 2015).         But the Supreme
    Court soon made clear that Johnson triggered an exception:              as a
    "substantive" rule that curbed the scope of a criminal law (the
    ACCA), it applies retroactively.       See Welch, 
    136 S. Ct. at
    1265–
    68.
    Within a year after the Johnson decision, Shea moved to
    vacate his conviction and sentence under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    , urging
    that the Court's reasoning in Johnson made the similar residual
    clauses in § 924(c) and § 4B1.2(a) unconstitutionally vague, as
    well.   Shea argued that shorn of that clause, § 924(c) did not
    support his conviction for carrying a firearm in relation to a
    "crime of violence," and the pre-Booker Career Offender Guideline
    wrongfully enhanced his sentence.       He urged (as he does on appeal)
    that his instant conviction for armed attempted bank robbery under
    federal law did not satisfy § 924(c)'s force clause, and that none
    of his prior convictions — including for federal armed bank
    robbery, Massachusetts ABPO, and Massachusetts assault and battery
    ("A&B") — satisfied § 4B1.2(a)'s force clause or matched the
    generic offenses it enumerates.        See United States v. Faust, 
    853 F.3d 39
    , 58 (1st Cir. 2017) (holding intentional ABPO is not a
    violent felony under the ACCA's identical force clause); see also
    United States v. Rose, 
    896 F.3d 104
    , 110, 115 (1st Cir. 2018)
    (explaining     that   crimes   carrying     a   mens   rea    of    ordinary
    recklessness,    including   assault   and   battery    with   a    dangerous
    - 7 -
    weapon under Massachusetts and Rhode Island law, are not violent
    felonies under the force clause).            Shea therefore asked the judge
    to vacate his § 924(c) (Count Two) conviction and resentence him
    without the Career Offender enhancement.
    Generally, the federal habeas statute demands a prisoner
    file any motion to vacate within a year of "the date on which the
    judgment of conviction became final."             
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(1).
    There are exceptions, though.           Section 2255(f)(3) restarts the
    one-year clock on "the date on which the right asserted was
    initially recognized by the Supreme Court, if that right has been
    newly recognized by the Supreme Court and made retroactively
    applicable to cases on collateral review." Using that springboard,
    Shea claimed that Johnson reopened the one-year window to mount
    his vagueness challenges to the § 924(c) and § 4B1.2(a)(2) residual
    clauses, so the court should vacate his § 924(c) conviction and
    resentence him without the career-offender enhancement.
    The     district   judge     disagreed    and   dismissed    Shea's
    claims.    Shea    had   blown   the    usual    one-year   post-conviction
    deadline, and § 2255(f)(3) did not apply, the judge held.                 He
    acknowledged that Johnson "newly recognized" a retroactive rule.
    But he held that subsection (f)(3)'s exception required more.             In
    his view, "§ 2255(f)(3) does not come into play unless reasonable
    jurists would agree that the new rule on which the petition is
    based dictates the result that the petitioner seeks."                 "Absent
    - 8 -
    such agreement," he'd held before, "the prisoners' claimed right
    must itself be treated as a new right that must await recognition
    by the Supreme Court before the statute of limitations can be
    restarted by § 2255(f)(3)."          Kucinski v. United States, No. 16-
    CV-201-PB,    
    2016 WL 4926157
    ,     at    *4   (D.N.H.     Sept.    15,     2016).
    Applying that framework to this case, he concluded that judges
    could reasonably debate whether the rule minted in Johnson made
    the residual clauses in the pre-Booker Guidelines or § 924(c)
    unconstitutionally vague, and therefore, Shea's petition was too
    late (because it was filed long after his conviction became final)
    and premature (because the Supreme Court had not yet "recognized"
    a right that would entitle Shea to relief).                   Acknowledging that
    the   issue   wasn't      clear-cut,    however,        the    judge    granted     a
    certificate    of     appealability         on    the   question       of     whether
    § 2255(f)(3) reopened the one-year period for Shea to bring his
    Johnson-based attacks on his conviction and sentence.                       Shea took
    the invite and appealed.
    Framing the Issue
    While      Shea's   appeal    was      pending,     the   Supreme     Court
    decided United States v. Davis, which held that § 924(c)'s residual
    clause was unconstitutionally vague. 
    139 S. Ct. 2319
    , 2336 (2019).
    In light of Davis, the parties now agree that Shea's Johnson-based
    challenge to his § 924(c) conviction is timely, and that we should
    remand for the district court to address whether Shea's conviction
    - 9 -
    for armed attempted bank robbery under 
    18 U.S.C. § 2113
    (a) and (d)
    qualifies as a crime of violence under § 924(c)'s surviving
    elements clause.2
    With that settled, the only question left is whether
    Johnson   reopened   the   one-year   window   for    any   Johnson-based
    challenges to the pre-Booker Guidelines' residual clause.         Most of
    our sister circuits have held it did not.            See Nunez v. United
    States, 
    954 F.3d 465
    , 467 (2d Cir. 2020); United States v. London,
    
    937 F.3d 502
    , 503 (5th Cir. 2019); United States v. Blackstone,
    
    903 F.3d 1020
    , 1023 (9th Cir. 2018); Russo v. United States, 
    902 F.3d 880
    , 883 (8th Cir. 2018); United States v. Green, 
    898 F.3d 315
    , 321 (3d Cir. 2018); United States v. Greer, 
    881 F.3d 1241
    ,
    1248 (10th Cir. 2018); United States v. Brown, 
    868 F.3d 297
    , 303
    (4th Cir. 2017); Raybon v. United States, 
    867 F.3d 625
    , 629-30
    2 Before us, the parties focused on the issue of whether
    attempted bank robbery under § 2113(a) constitutes a "crime of
    violence" under § 924(c).    Although we leave the merits of the
    § 924(c) issue for the district court to take the first (and maybe
    the only) crack at it, we add that it appears Shea was convicted
    of the enhanced version of the offense -- not just attempted bank
    robbery under § 2113(a) but armed attempted bank robbery under
    § 2113(d). This difference may be significant. See United States
    v. Johnson, 
    899 F.3d 191
    , 204 (3d Cir. 2018) ("Johnson focuses on
    § 2113(a) . . . [h]owever, Johnson was not convicted under
    § 2113(a), but rather § 2113(d) . . . ."); United States v. Taylor,
    
    848 F.3d 476
    , 493 (1st Cir. 2017) (analyzing similar challenge to
    a § 924(c) conviction in light of "the enhancement provisions that
    applied to Taylor's conviction"); see also Simpson v. United
    States, 
    435 U.S. 6
    , 13 n.6 (1978) (discussing § 2113(d)); United
    States v. Spinney, 
    65 F.3d 231
    , 236 (1st Cir. 1995) (same).
    - 10 -
    (6th Cir. 2017).   That these decisions have snowballed down one
    path doesn't mean we should follow them, though.   See In re Atlas
    IT Exp. Corp., 
    761 F.3d 177
    , 182–83 (1st Cir. 2014) (citing the
    "phenomenon in our courts of appeal and elsewhere — sometimes
    called 'herding' or 'cascading'" under which later successive
    courts to address a question "are increasingly more likely to
    simply go along with the developing group consensus").     Indeed,
    one circuit and most trial judges in ours have reached the opposite
    conclusion.   See Cross v. United States, 
    892 F.3d 288
    , 293–94,
    304–06 (7th Cir. 2018).3   Though we take a different route than
    the Seventh Circuit's, we hold that § 2255(f)(3) authorizes Shea
    3 See Diaz-Rodriguez v. United States, C.A. No. 16-2064, 
    2020 WL 265932
    , at *1 (D.P.R. Jan. 17, 2020); Boria v. United States,
    
    427 F. Supp. 3d 143
    , 149 (D. Mass. 2019); United States v. Moore,
    Cr. No. 00-10247, 
    2018 WL 5982017
    , *2-3 (D. Mass. Nov. 14, 2018);
    Bartolomeo v. United States, 
    316 F. Supp. 3d 539
    , 546 (D. Mass.
    2018); United States v. Roy, 
    282 F. Supp. 3d 421
    , 427-428 (D. Mass.
    2018); Reid v. United States, 
    252 F. Supp. 3d 63
    , 66-68 (D. Mass.
    2017); see also Hodges v. United States, 
    778 F. App'x 413
    , 414–15
    (9th Cir. July 26, 2019) (Berzon, J., concurring) (arguing
    Blackstone was wrongly decided); Chambers v. United States, 
    763 F. App'x 514
    , 528 (6th Cir. Feb. 21, 2019) (Moore, J., concurring)
    (arguing Raybon was wrongly decided); London, 937 F.3d at 510-11
    (Costa, J., concurring) (arguing that the Fifth Circuit is "on the
    wrong side of a split over the habeas limitations statute"); Brown,
    868 F.3d at 304–311 (Gregory, C.J., dissenting); United States v.
    Carter, 
    422 F. Supp. 3d 299
    , 314–17 (D.D.C. 2019); United States
    v. Hammond, 
    354 F. Supp. 3d 28
    , 40 (D.D.C. 2018).
    - 11 -
    to litigate his Johnson-based challenge to his sentence on its
    merits.
    We start with the common ground.              The parties agree that
    to show his petition is timely under § 2255(f)(3), Shea "needs to
    establish that [Johnson]:         (1) recognized a new right that is
    (2) 'retroactively         applicable'           on      collateral      review."
    Butterworth, 775 F.3d at 464.            They agree that he has.             In the
    government's telling, however, it is not enough that Shea relies
    on the rule minted in Johnson.           Rather (it goes on) the rule from
    Johnson must "necessarily dictate" that the residual clause in
    pre-Booker Guidelines was unconstitutionally vague.                     In other
    words (runs the argument), if to grant Shea's petition, the habeas
    court would need to craft a new right — meaning a new rule of law
    — beyond the one "recognized" in Johnson, then Shea's claim is too
    early, and Johnson did not restart the clock under § 2255(f)(3).
    See London, 937 F.3d at 506–09 (using this approach); Russo, 902
    F.3d at 883 ("[T]he timeliness of [a Johnson-based] claim depends
    on whether [the petitioner] is asserting [only] the right initially
    recognized in Johnson or whether he is asserting a different right
    that would require the creation of a second new rule."); Kucinski,
    
    2016 WL 4926157
    , at *4 (same).
    The Seventh Circuit has rejected this third step, saying
    it   "improperly   reads    a   merits        analysis   into   the   limitations
    period."     Cross,   892       F.3d     at     293–94   (holding     that    under
    - 12 -
    § 2255(f)(3), the petitioner only had to "claim the benefit of
    [the] right that the Supreme Court has recently recognized" in
    Johnson and did not have to "prove that the right applie[d] to his
    situation"); Hammond, 354 F. Supp. 3d at 41 ("To 'assert' means
    '[t]o state positively' or '[t]o invoke or enforce a legal right.'
    Thus, in order to be timely under § 2255(f)(3), a § 2255 motion
    need only 'invoke' the newly recognized right, regardless of
    whether or not the facts of record ultimately support the movant's
    claim."   (alterations in original) (quoting United States v.
    Snyder, 
    871 F.3d 1122
    , 1126 (10th Cir. 2017)). We have not decided
    the issue.4   But since we side with Shea anyway, we assume without
    4 Our decision in Butterworth did not hold that § 2255(f)(3)
    requires that the right "newly recognized" by the Supreme Court
    must compel the relief the petitioner seeks, as the government
    suggests. There, we held that a recent Supreme Court case that
    announced a new rule did not apply retroactively to a petitioner
    sentenced before the case came down. 775 F.3d at 468. We did not
    hold that a new rule, if retroactive, would need to dictate the
    outcome on the merits of the petition in order for the petition to
    be timely.   Indeed, in Moore v. United States, we held that a
    successive petition raising the same claim Shea does — a Johnson-
    based challenge to the pre-Booker Guidelines' residual clause —
    was timely under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(3) because it was filed within
    one year after Johnson, even though we expressly declined to decide
    whether Johnson applied to the pre-Booker Guidelines. 
    871 F.3d 72
    , 77 n.3 (1st Cir. 2017). It is unclear if that statement in
    Moore binds us here, since our overall analysis (which chiefly
    concerned the requirements for filing a successive petition) was
    necessarily "tentative." Id. at 80.
    - 13 -
    deciding    that    the     government    and   the    district    court   read    §
    2255(f)(3) correctly.
    Therefore, to see if Shea's petition is timely under
    § 2255(f)(3), we'll ask (based on the facts Shea asserts) if
    granting it would require the habeas court to forge a new rule of
    law not recognized in Johnson.           "'[A] case announces a new rule'"
    if "'it breaks new ground or imposes a new obligation' on the
    government" — that is, "'if the result [is] not dictated by
    precedent[.]'"       Chaidez v. United States, 
    568 U.S. 342
    , 347 (2013)
    (first alteration in original) (quoting Teague, 
    489 U.S. at 301
    ).
    "And a holding is not so dictated" unless it "would [be] 'apparent
    to all reasonable jurists.'"          
    Id.
     (quoting Lambrix v. Singletary,
    
    520 U.S. 518
    , 527–528 (1997)).           "But that account has a flipside":
    "a case does not 'announce a new rule when it is merely an
    application of the principle that governed' a prior decision to a
    different set of facts."         
    Id.
     at 347–48 (alterations and internal
    quotation marks omitted) (quoting Teague, 
    489 U.S. at 307
    ).                       So
    when    a   court     "simply    applie[s]"      the     same     "constitutional
    principle" to a "closely analogous" case, it does not create a new
    rule.   Yates v. Aiken, 
    484 U.S. 211
    , 216 (1988) (quoting Desist v.
    United States, 
    394 U.S. 244
    , 263 (1969) (Harlan, J., dissenting)).
    In      other    words,      our    timeliness      analysis    under
    § 2255(f)(3) will overlap with the merits of Shea's claim, because
    we must determine whether Johnson establishes beyond reasonable
    - 14 -
    debate that the pre-Booker Guidelines' residual clause was too
    vague to constitutionally enhance a defendant's sentence, at least
    when no departure was applicable (as Shea asserts none was here).
    In a more preliminary posture, we've already held that there was
    a   "reasonable   likelihood"   that   the   answer   was   yes:     that   a
    defendant who (like Shea) claimed he'd been subjected to an
    enhanced sentence because of the pre-Booker residual clause could
    challenge his sentence as violating the vagueness rule minted in
    Johnson.   See Moore v. United States, 
    871 F.3d 72
    , 74, 80–84 (1st
    Cir. 2017) (holding the petitioner made a "prima facie" showing
    that his Johnson-based challenge ticked the boxes for filing a
    successive petition, at least where there was "no suggestion . . .
    that Moore qualified for a departure").         In this case, we go one
    step further:     even applying the government's framework (i.e., the
    Teague test), we hold that Johnson dictates the rule Shea asserts:
    namely,     that       § 4B1.2(a)(2)'s       residual       clause      was
    unconstitutionally vague and could not be applied to enhance the
    permissible range of sentences a judge could impose, as Shea claims
    it did in his case.     As a result, we hold that Shea "asserts" the
    same right "newly recognized" in Johnson, making his petition
    - 15 -
    (filed   within    a    year    of    that   decision)    timely.    
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(3).5
    Analysis
    Johnson and Beckles
    Johnson began with a well-established rule:              that "the
    Government violates [the Fifth Amendment] by taking away someone's
    life, liberty, or property under a criminal law so vague that it
    fails to give ordinary people fair notice of the conduct it
    punishes,     or   so     standardless        that   it    invites   arbitrary
    enforcement."      576 U.S. at 595 (quoting Kolender v. Lawson, 
    461 U.S. 352
    , 357–358 (1983)).              Such vague laws violate "the first
    essential of Due Process."              
    Id.
     at 595–96 (quoting Connally v.
    Gen. Constr. Co., 
    269 U.S. 385
    , 391 (1926)).                In the key phrase
    here, the Court explained:             "These principles apply not only to
    statutes defining elements of crimes, but also to statutes fixing
    sentences."     
    Id.
     at 596 (citing United States v. Batchelder, 
    442 U.S. 114
    , 123 (1979)).               The Court then moved to the residual
    language at issue, which defined "violent felony" to include
    certain enumerated offenses and "any felony that involves conduct
    that presents a serious potential risk of physical injury to
    another." Id. at 593. That phrase, as the Court had long construed
    5 As we'll explain, we do not here decide whether Shea was in
    fact (as he contends) ineligible for a departure and exposed to
    higher sentences on account of the residual clause, but instead
    leave those merits issues for the district court to resolve.
    - 16 -
    it (to "require[ ] a court to picture the kind of conduct that the
    crime involves in 'the ordinary case,' and to judge whether that
    abstraction    presents   a   serious     potential   risk   of   physical
    injury"), left "grave uncertainty" about both "how to estimate the
    risk posed by a crime" and "how much risk it takes for a crime to
    qualify as a violent felony."           Id. at 596–98.       "Invoking so
    shapeless a provision to condemn someone to prison for 15 years to
    life does not comport with the Constitution's guarantee of due
    process."     Id. at 602.     After Johnson, all but one circuit to
    address the issue held that "[§] 4B1.2(a)'s identically-worded
    [and interpreted] residual clause was unconstitutionally vague."
    United States v. Frates, 
    896 F.3d 93
    , 96 (1st Cir. 2018).           In our
    circuit, the government "routinely" conceded that Johnson made the
    Guidelines' residual clause unconstitutionally void.          
    Id.
    Two years later, however, the Supreme Court held that
    although § 4B1.2(a)(2) contained the same vague language as the
    ACCA, the advisory Guidelines were "not subject to vagueness
    challenges."    Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 890
    .       The Court made clear
    that under Johnson, "'statutes fixing sentences' . . . must specify
    the range of available sentences with 'sufficient clarity.'"          
    Id. at 892
     (first quoting Johnson, 576 U.S. at 596, then quoting
    Batchelder, 
    442 U.S. at 123
    ).     The ACCA had "fixed . . . a higher
    range of sentences for certain defendants" because it "required
    sentencing courts to increase a defendant's prison term from a
    - 17 -
    statutory maximum of 10 years to a minimum of 15 years" with a
    maximum of life.   
    Id.
     (emphasis added).        In contrast, though, the
    advisory Guidelines do not "fix the permissible range of sentences"
    a judge may legally impose.     
    Id.
       They "merely guide the exercise
    of a court's discretion in choosing an appropriate sentence within
    the statutory range," and "'do not constrain that discretion.'"
    Id. at 894 (alteration omitted) (quoting Peugh v. United States,
    
    133 S. Ct. 2072
    , 2089 (2013) (Thomas, J., dissenting)).         For that
    reason, the Court held, they do not "implicate the twin concerns
    underlying   the   vagueness    doctrine    —    providing   notice    and
    preventing arbitrary enforcement."         Id.; Moore, 871 F.3d at 77
    (explaining that "Beckles's reasoning relied on the conclusion
    that the post-Booker guidelines 'do not fix the permissible range
    of sentences,' and therefore 'do not implicate the twin concerns
    underlying vagueness doctrine'").
    But   what   about   pre-Booker   sentences?       Johnson   and
    Beckles did not directly address the mandatory Guidelines that
    governed Shea's sentence.      See Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    903 n.4
    (Sotomayor, J., concurring).6      Many circuits seem to think that
    6 Unlike our sister circuits, we do not believe that Justice
    Sotomayor's oft-cited comment in her concurrence — that the Court
    left "open the question whether defendants sentenced to terms of
    imprisonment before our decision in [Booker] . . . may mount
    vagueness attacks on their sentences" — means that judges could
    reasonably debate whether Johnson applies to the pre-Booker
    Guidelines.   Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    903 n.4 (Sotomayor, J.,
    - 18 -
    ends the matter — holding that since the Court has not expressly
    held that the rule coined in Johnson applies to the pre-Booker
    Guidelines, a petitioner cannot rely on that rule to challenge a
    mandatory-Guideline career-offender sentence under § 2255(f)(3),
    even (apparently) if any reasonable jurist would conclude it
    applies to the mandatory Guidelines.7   But not even the government
    urges us to read § 2255(f)(3) so woodenly.    Nor could it:   as we
    concurring). First, the Justice's statement could easily be read
    to mean that the "open" question is whether prisoners sentenced
    before Booker — mostly all of whose convictions became final more
    than a year before Johnson — may invoke § 2255(f)(3) to "mount
    vagueness attacks on their sentences" (the question we answer yes
    to in this case). Id. Second, even if she meant to address the
    Teague question here (which was far afield from the issue
    presented), a non-controlling opinion for one justice is, of
    course, not binding on us. Finally, in Stringer (discussed more
    below), the Court explained that its holding did not establish a
    "new rule" even though it answered a question a previous majority
    opinion had "express[ly]" deemed an "open" one. Stringer v. Black,
    
    503 U.S. 222
    , 230 (1992).
    7 See Nunez, 954 F.3d at 470 (reasoning that "Johnson by its
    own terms addresses only the ACCA," so "the rule established in
    Johnson was specific" to that statute); Blackstone, 903 F.3d at
    1026 (holding petition untimely because "[n]either Johnson nor
    Welch mentioned the mandatory or advisory Sentencing Guidelines");
    Green, 898 F.3d at 321 (reasoning that "Johnson's holding as to
    the residual clause in the ACCA created a right only as to the
    ACCA" because "[i]t says nothing about a parallel right to not be
    sentenced under Sentencing Guidelines, whether advisory or
    mandatory"); Greer, 881 F.3d at 1248 ("[T]he only right recognized
    by the Supreme Court in Johnson was a defendant's right not to
    have his sentence increased under the residual clause of the ACCA,"
    and the petitioner could not use § 2255(f)(3) "to apply the
    reasoning of Johnson in a different context not considered by the
    Court."); Brown, 868 F.3d at 303 (reasoning that "Johnson only
    recognized that ACCA's residual clause was unconstitutionally
    vague" and "did not touch upon" the Guidelines' identically-worded
    residual clause); Raybon, 867 F.3d at 630 (similar).
    - 19 -
    said in Moore, "Congress in § 2255 used words such as 'rule' and
    'right'" because "it recognizes that the Supreme Court guides" —
    and indeed binds — "the lower courts not just with technical
    holdings" confined to the precise facts of each case "but with
    general rules that are logically inherent in those holdings."             871
    F.3d at 82; see also Booker, 543 U.S. at 238 ("More important than
    the language used in our holding . . . are the principles we sought
    to vindicate.").      As the government accepts, a rule or right
    recognized in one case can (and often does) control another with
    a "different set of facts."          Chaidez, 
    568 U.S. at 348
    .           So a
    decision striking one law often compels a court to undo another.
    In Stringer v. Black, that's just what happened.                
    503 U.S. 222
    , 229 (1992).        There, the Supreme Court held that its
    decision voiding one state's capital sentencing scheme (because it
    allowed the jury to return a death verdict based on an aggravating
    factor that state law defined too vaguely) "controlled" its later
    decision   striking      another    state's    law    that   used   different
    language, so that the second case "did not announce a new rule."
    
    Id.
     at 228–29 ("[I]t would be a mistake to conclude that the
    vagueness ruling of Godfrey was limited to the precise language
    before us in that case.").            Indeed, the Court went further.
    Although there were "differences in the use of aggravating factors"
    under   each   state's   schemes,    the     Court   concluded   that   "those
    differences could not have been considered a basis for denying
    - 20 -
    relief" in light of the principles established by other cases the
    Court had decided before the petitioner's conviction became final.
    
    Id.
     at 229–30. In other words, the Supreme Court does not announce
    a new rule every time it applies the same constitutional principle
    to a new regulatory scheme.      "If a proffered factual distinction
    between the case under consideration and pre-existing precedent
    does not change the force with which the precedent's underlying
    principle applies, the distinction is not meaningful, and any
    deviation from precedent is not reasonable."       Wright v. West, 
    505 U.S. 277
    , 304 (1992) (O'Connor, J., concurring) (citing Stringer,
    
    503 U.S. at 237
    ).
    The Mandatory Guidelines
    Even so, says the government, the rule applied in Johnson
    does not control the pre-Booker Guidelines because, unlike the
    ACCA, the mandatory Guidelines were not "statutes" and do not "fix
    sentences" because they "did not increase the statutory minimum or
    maximum penalty facing the defendant."      To be sure (the government
    admits) "[t]he guideline regime cabined where within the statutory
    range the district court had to sentence the defendant," but it
    permitted departures in some circumstances.        At least three other
    circuits have found these distinctions provide reasonable grounds
    to   debate   whether    Johnson's   rule   reaches    the   pre-Booker
    - 21 -
    Guidelines.8   One (and only one) circuit has actually debated the
    issue by holding that on the merits, the pre-Booker residual clause
    would be immune to Johnson-based vagueness challenges.    See In re
    Griffin, 
    823 F.3d 1350
    , 1354–55 (11th Cir. 2016) (reasoning that
    mandatory Guidelines differed meaningfully from the ACCA because
    they did not "alter the statutory sentencing range set by Congress
    for the crime").9   Shea disagrees with those cases.   By his logic,
    Johnson established that vague laws that fix the permissible range
    of sentences a judge can impose (by establishing a new mandatory
    minimum or maximum sentence) violate the Due Process Clause; the
    8 See London, 937 F.3d at 507 (holding that voiding the pre-
    Booker residual clause would require a new rule because the
    Guidelines "did not statutorily increase the risk [the defendant]
    faced at sentencing" because "the statutory minimum and maximum
    sentence he faced remained the same"); United States v. Pullen,
    
    913 F.3d 1270
    , 1281–82 (10th Cir. 2019) ("[C]entral to why the
    question remains open is that Johnson involved a federal statute,
    while the Guidelines, even in their mandatory form, were agency-
    created rules formed by the U.S. Sentencing Commission to
    supplement existing, congressionally-enacted statutory maximum and
    minimum sentencing ranges."); Russo, 902 F.3d at 883 (same because
    neither Johnson nor Beckles "addressed possible distinctions
    between a provision that establishes a statutory penalty and a
    mandatory guideline provision that affects sentences within a
    statutory range, subject to authorized departures").
    9 By the way, as we explained in Moore, that the Eleventh
    Circuit decided the merits differently in Griffin does not "mean
    that a contrary conclusion would be a new rule of constitutional
    law." 871 F.3d at 81; see Wright, 
    505 U.S. at 304
     (O'Connor, J.
    concurring) (explaining that because "the standard for determining
    when a case establishes a new rule is 'objective,'" "the mere
    existence of conflicting authority does not necessarily mean a
    rule is new") (citing Stringer, 
    503 U.S. at 237
    ).
    - 22 -
    vague § 4B1.2(a)(2) residual clause required the judge to sentence
    Shea to 262–327 months in prison (a sentence far greater than the
    statutory minimum); and therefore, his sentence violated the rule
    announced in Johnson.
    As we previewed earlier, we side with Shea.        "[B]ased on
    an objective reading of the relevant cases," Stringer, 
    503 U.S. at 237
    , the government's proffered distinctions between the ACCA and
    the mandatory Guidelines do "not change the force with which
    [Johnson's] underlying principle applies" when, as in most cases,
    the defendant was ineligible for a departure from the Guideline
    range.   Wright, 
    505 U.S. at 304
     (O'Connor, J., concurring).
    (i)     Statutes vs. Rules
    To   start   with,    given   Supreme   Court   precedent,   no
    reasonable jurist could think the rule in Johnson applies only to
    statutes.   It is crystal clear that the same two-pronged vagueness
    test that governed Johnson applies with equal force to regulations
    that have the force of law.         See FCC v. Fox Television Stations,
    Inc., 
    567 U.S. 239
    , 253 (2012) ("A conviction or punishment fails
    to comply with due process if the statute or regulation under which
    it is obtained 'fails to provide a person of ordinary intelligence
    fair notice of what is prohibited, or is so standardless that it
    authorizes or encourages seriously discriminatory enforcement.'"
    (quoting United States v. Williams, 
    553 U.S. 285
    , 304 (2008))
    (emphasis added)); accord Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    894–95 (citing
    - 23 -
    Fox, 
    567 U.S. at 253
    , and framing the void-for-vagueness "question
    [as] whether a law" — not just a statute — "regulating private
    conduct by fixing permissible sentences provides notice and avoids
    arbitrary enforcement by clearly specifying the range of penalties
    available").     And as the Supreme Court held before Booker, the
    mandatory Guidelines were "the equivalent of legislative rules
    adopted by federal agencies."    Stinson v. United States, 
    508 U.S. 36
    , 45 (1993).   "Because they [were] binding on judges," the Court
    had "consistently held that the Guidelines ha[d] the force and
    effect of laws."     Booker, 543 U.S. at 234.    So "the fact that
    [they] were promulgated by the Sentencing Commission, rather than
    Congress, lacks constitutional significance."      Id. at 237; see
    also United States v. R.L.C., 
    503 U.S. 291
    , 297 (1992) (stating
    that "the answer to any suggestion that the statutory character of
    a specific penalty provision gives it primacy over administrative
    sentencing guidelines is that the mandate to apply the Guidelines
    is itself statutory," as we're about to explain).
    (ii) Fixing Sentences
    In addition, unlike the advisory version, the mandatory
    Guidelines "did 'fix the permissible range of sentences'" a judge
    could impose on certain defendants.      Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    903
    n.4 (Sotomayor, J., concurring); accord Booker, 543 U.S. at 243
    (rejecting notion that "the Guidelines as currently written could
    be read as merely advisory provisions that recommended, rather
    - 24 -
    than required, the selection of particular sentences").                  In fact,
    they did so by statute.          As the Court explained in Booker, the
    Sentencing Reform Act ("SRA") required the judge to "'impose a
    sentence of the kind, and within the range' established by the
    Guidelines" in all but "specific, limited cases" in which the SRA
    allowed a departure.          Id. at 234 (quoting 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (b)).
    Therefore, at least in the ordinary case (where no departure was
    available),     the   Court     held    that    the   Guidelines    —    not    the
    defendant's statute of conviction — set the relevant "maximum"
    sentence.     Id. at 234.       For that reason, the Supreme Court held
    that   Guideline      enhancements      routinely     violated   the     rule   in
    Apprendi v. New Jersey — that "[o]ther than the fact of a prior
    conviction, any fact that increases the penalty for a crime beyond
    the prescribed statutory maximum must be submitted to a jury, and
    proved beyond a reasonable doubt," 
    530 U.S. 466
    , 490 (2000),
    because   (at   least    in    most    cases)    they   raised     the   "legally
    permissible" range of sentences based on facts found by the judge,
    rather than a jury.       Booker, 543 U.S. at 230–35; see also id. at
    238 ("The Government correctly notes that in Apprendi we referred
    to 'any fact that increases the penalty for a crime beyond the
    prescribed statutory maximum' . . . [but the] principle[ ] [is]
    unquestionably applicable to the Guidelines.").
    That the Guidelines allowed departures in "specific,
    limited cases" did not change the fact that in all others, they
    - 25 -
    worked no differently than a statute setting a sentencing range.
    Id. at 234.   As the Court explained:
    The Guidelines permit[ted] departures from
    the prescribed sentencing range in cases in
    which the judge "finds that there exists an
    aggravating or mitigating circumstance of a
    kind, or to a degree, not adequately taken
    into   consideration    by    the   Sentencing
    Commission in formulating the guidelines that
    should result in a sentence different from
    that described." 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (b)(1) (2000
    ed., Supp. IV). At first glance, one might
    believe that the ability of a district judge
    to depart from the Guidelines means that she
    is bound only by the statutory maximum. Were
    this    the     case,    there     would    be
    no Apprendi problem.    Importantly, however,
    departures [were] not available in every case,
    and in fact [were] unavailable in most. In
    most cases, as a matter of law, the Commission
    will have adequately taken all relevant
    factors into account, and no departure will be
    legally permissible. In those instances, the
    judge [was] bound to impose a sentence within
    the Guidelines range.
    
    Id.
     (emphasis added).   "Booker's case illustrat[ed] the mandatory
    nature of the Guidelines," the Court added:    as "a run-of-the-mill
    drug case, [it did] not present any factors that were inadequately
    considered by the Commission. The sentencing judge would therefore
    have been reversed had he [departed and] not imposed a sentence
    within the . . . Guidelines range."     Id. at 235.   In other words,
    for most defendants — those who were not eligible for a departure
    — the mandatory Guidelines "fix[ed] the permissible range of
    sentences" the judge could impose.     Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 892
    .
    No, Booker did not apply the void-for-vagueness doctrine
    - 26 -
    or use the word "fix."          Rather, it construed "the Sixth Amendment
    right of criminal defendants to be tried by a jury and to have
    every element of an offense proved by the Government beyond a
    reasonable doubt."        Pepper v. United States, 
    562 U.S. 476
    , 489
    (2011) (citing Booker, 543 U.S. at 243–44); see Alleyne v. United
    States, 
    570 U.S. 99
    , 111 (2013) (explaining that "'facts that
    increase the prescribed range of penalties to which a criminal
    defendant is exposed' are elements" of a "'separate legal offense'"
    that must be charged in the indictment and found by the jury
    (quoting Apprendi, 
    530 U.S. at
    483 n.10, 490)).                        In Beckles,
    however,    the   Court    drew     from    the   Booker      line   of    cases    to
    distinguish   laws   that       "fix"     sentences    (which    are      subject   to
    vagueness   challenges)     from     laws    that     "merely   guide"      judicial
    discretion (which are not).          Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 892
    .             Indeed,
    the Court indicated that it pulled the term "fixed" from Alleyne,
    which   "describe[d]      the    legally    prescribed     range     of    available
    sentences as the penalty fixed to a crime."                Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 892
    .
    In Alleyne, the Court made clear that under the Sixth
    Amendment analysis that doomed the mandatory Guidelines, a fact
    that raises either (maximum or minimum) end of the "the legally
    prescribed range of sentences to which a criminal defendant is
    exposed"    necessarily         changes    "the     penalty     affixed      to     the
    [defendant's] crime."       570 U.S. at 112 (emphasis added) (reasoning
    - 27 -
    that "the legally prescribed range is the penalty affixed to the
    crime"); see also United States v. Haymond, 
    139 S. Ct. 2369
    , 2378
    (2019)     (plurality    opinion)      ("[B]y     definition,    a    range   of
    punishments includes not only a maximum but a minimum," meaning
    that "[b]oth the 'floor' and 'ceiling' of a sentencing range
    'define the legally prescribed penalty.'" (quoting Alleyne, 570
    U.S. at 112)).        That's because historically, the law defined a
    "'crime' as consisting of every fact which 'is in law essential to
    the punishment sought to be inflicted,' or the whole of the wrong
    'to which the law affixes punishment.'"            Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 109
    (quoting 1 J. Bishop, Criminal Procedure 50 (2d ed. 1872)).                   So
    when a fact bumps up "the legally prescribed punishment" (meaning
    it    "affixes"   a   new   penalty    to   the    defendant's   conduct)     it
    necessarily "constitutes an element of a separate, aggravated
    offense that must be found by the jury."            Id. at 114–15; see also
    id. at 112 ("It is impossible to dissociate the floor of a
    sentencing range from the penalty affixed to the crime.").                    In
    contrast, a judge may decide facts that merely "guide judicial
    discretion in selecting a punishment 'within limits fixed by law.'"
    Id. at 113 n.2 (quoting Williams v. New York, 
    337 U.S. 241
    , 246
    (1949)).     Viewed through Alleyne's lens, then, the mandatory
    Guidelines violated the Sixth Amendment (at least when no departure
    was   available)      because   they   changed     the   range   of   penalties
    "affixed" to the defendant's conduct, even if some other statute
    - 28 -
    listed a higher so-called "maximum" sentence for the crime of
    conviction.    If they had "merely guide[d]" judicial discretion,
    instead of "fixing" its limits, Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 892
    , they
    would not have broken the Apprendi rule, as Booker held they did.
    See Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 116–17; accord Booker, 543 U.S. at 234.
    In our view, therefore, the precedent leaves no room for
    debate:     when the pre-Booker Guidelines "bound [the judge] to
    impose a sentence within" a prescribed range, Booker, 543 U.S. at
    234–35,   as   they   ordinarily     did,     they   necessarily   "fixed    the
    permissible range of sentences" (s)he could impose, Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 892
    , whether they "fixed" a higher maximum or minimum
    sentence.      See    Davis,   
    139 S. Ct. at 2336
       (striking     down
    § 924(c)(3)(B), which enhanced the mandatory minimum — but not
    always the maximum — sentence required for certain defendants who
    used or carried a firearm in a "crime of violence" based on a
    similar residual clause as unconstitutionally vague).
    It's easy to see why vague laws that "fix" sentences for
    Apprendi/Alleyne purposes violate the Due Process Clause.                    The
    Apprendi rule applied in Booker serves two main functions.                First,
    fair notice:    requiring the indictment to allege "every fact which
    is legally essential to the punishment to be inflicted . . .
    enable[s] [the defendant] to determine the species of offence with
    which he [is] charged in order that he may prepare his defence
    accordingly" and have "no doubt as to the judgment which should be
    - 29 -
    given, if the defendant be convicted."         Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 111
    (quotations omitted); see also id. at 113–14 ("Defining facts that
    increase   a   mandatory   statutory    minimum     to   be   part   of   the
    substantive offense enables the defendant to predict the legally
    applicable penalty from the face of the indictment").                But an
    indictment can't provide the notice the Constitution requires if
    the crime it charges is itself "so vague the defendant [can't]
    tell what he's alleged to have done and what sort of witnesses he
    might need to rebut that charge."       Sessions v. Dimaya, 
    138 S. Ct. 1204
    , 1227 (2018) (Gorsuch, J. concurring) (observing that the
    Sixth   Amendment   fair   trial   rights,   like   other     constitutional
    protections, "presuppose and depend on the existence of reasonably
    clear laws").     The Apprendi rule also guards against "the threat
    of   'judicial    despotism'   that    could   arise     from     'arbitrary
    punishments upon arbitrary convictions,'" by requiring the jury to
    find each fact "the law makes essential to his punishment."
    Booker, 543 U.S. at 232, 238 (first quoting The Federalist No. 83,
    at 499 (A. Hamilton) (C. Rossiter ed., 1961), then quoting Blakely
    v. Washington, 
    542 U.S. 296
    , 301 (2004)).            But if jurors can't
    tell what "facts" are "essential," and the judge can't educate
    them (without making up the law arbitrarily), then the jury can't
    do its job.      We could hardly expect twelve people to "confirm"
    "the truth of [an] accusation," id. at 239 (emphasis omitted)
    - 30 -
    (quoting Apprendi, 
    530 U.S. at 477
    ), that even the judge can't
    decipher.
    Without a doubt, then, when no departure applied, the
    vague residual clause that Shea claims raised his sentencing range
    (which told us an offense was a "crime of violence" if it posed a
    "'serious potential risk of physical injury to another'" in the
    abstract "ordinary case" of the crime, Frates, 896 F.3d at 95–96,
    99 (emphases added) (quoting U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(a)(2))) triggered
    the   "twin    concerns   underlying   vagueness   doctrine   —   providing
    notice and preventing arbitrary enforcement."        Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at 894
    .   To see why, consider the reasons Beckles gave for why the
    advisory Guidelines didn't "implicate" those interests.           First,
    [a]s   to   notice,   even   perfectly   clear
    [advisory] Guidelines could not provide notice
    to a person who seeks to regulate his conduct
    so as to avoid particular penalties within the
    statutory range. That is because even if a
    person behaves so as to avoid an enhanced
    sentence under the career-offender guideline,
    the sentencing court retains discretion to
    impose the enhanced sentence. . . . "[T]he due
    process concerns that . . . require notice in
    a world of mandatory Guidelines no longer"
    apply . . . . All of the notice required is
    provided by the applicable statutory range,
    which establishes the permissible bounds of
    the court's sentencing discretion.
    
    Id.
     (citations omitted).       As to the second "twin concern," a law
    "invites arbitrary enforcement" if it "'leaves judges and jurors
    free to decide, without any legally fixed standards, what is
    prohibited and what is not in each particular case' . . . or
    - 31 -
    permits    them    to   prescribe       the     sentences    or   sentencing      range
    available."       Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    894–95 (first quoting Giaccio
    v. Pennsylvania, 
    382 U.S. 399
    , 402–03 (1966), then citing Alleyne,
    570 U.S. at 111-14).        Since the advisory Guidelines did not "fix
    the   permissible       range   of      [the]    petitioner's        sentence,"    "the
    District Court did not 'enforce' the [advisory] career-offender
    Guideline against" Beckles:                it just "relied on [the Guideline]
    for advice in exercising its discretion to choose a sentence within
    th[e] statutory limits."          Id. at 895.
    In     contrast,      the      pre-Booker       Guidelines       themselves
    routinely "establishe[d] the permissible bounds of the court's
    sentencing discretion."           Id. at 894.         When the Career Offender
    Guideline shot up the maximum permissible sentence (because there
    was no ground for an upward departure from the base guideline
    range),    the    judge   could      not    have   imposed     the    same    range   of
    penalties as without the enhancement.10                 See Booker, 543 U.S. at
    236–37.     Even when it only "[e]levat[ed] the low-end of [the]
    sentencing range" (as Shea claims it at least did in his case
    because there were no grounds for a downward departure), the
    guideline increased "the defendant's 'expected punishment . . .
    10
    Here, for instance, giving Shea the same sentence without
    the Career Offender enhancement would have required a steep 165-
    month upward departure (the difference between the high-end of
    Shea's Guidelines range without the Career Offender enhancement
    and his actual sentence) if the enhancement hadn't applied.
    - 32 -
    as a result of the narrowed range[.]'"       Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 113
    (quoting Apprendi, 
    530 U.S. at 522
     (Thomas, J., concurring)).        So
    clearer   standards   would    have      warned   a   defendant   (with
    constitutionally adequate certainty) "how to regulate his conduct
    so as to avoid" an enhanced mandatory range of punishments.         See
    
    id.
     at 112–13 (explaining that laws defining the minimum and
    maximum sentences permissible historically "allowed those who
    violated the law to know, ex ante, the contours of the penalty
    that the legislature affixed to the crime" and "comport[ed] with
    the obvious truth that the floor of a mandatory range is as
    relevant to wrongdoers as the ceiling").11
    That's not all.     Even if the mandatory Career Offender
    Guideline somehow avoided "[t]he due process concerns that . . .
    11 Although the government does not argue this point, we
    realize that as a practical matter, someone mulling committing a
    crime (viewing things "ex ante," as the Romans would say) might
    not know (or be realistically able to predict) whether he'd qualify
    for a departure if he followed through with the deed. Some grounds
    for departure — like the defendant's "substantial assistance" to
    the government, or extraordinary post-offense rehabilitation —
    depended on post-offense conduct.     See Pepper, 
    562 U.S. at
    503
    n.16; United States v. Craven, 
    239 F.3d 91
    , 99 (1st Cir. 2001)
    ("It is only the occasional instance, where time and circumstances
    permit and the accused takes full advantage of both, that will
    produce rehabilitation so dramatic as to" warrant a downward
    departure (quoting United States v. Sklar, 
    920 F.2d 107
    , 115-16
    (1st Cir. 1990)).); U.S.S.G. § 5K1.1. But as the Seventh Circuit
    recognized, statutory minima have similar escape hatches. See 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (e), (f). Yet no one suggests these limited safety
    valves unlocked by post-offense efforts insulate statutes fixing
    mandatory minima, like the provisions struck in Johnson and Davis,
    from vagueness challenges. See Cross, 892 F.3d at 306 (concluding
    - 33 -
    require notice in a world of mandatory Guidelines" — the vague
    residual clause unquestionably "permits [judges] to prescribe the
    sentences or sentencing range available" "without any legally
    fixed standards."    Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    894–95.         When the clause
    applied and no downward departure was available, "the prosecution
    [was] empowered, by invoking the [enhanced] mandatory minimum, to
    require the judge to impose a higher penalty than he might wish."
    Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 113 (quoting Apprendi, 
    530 U.S. at 522
    (Thomas,   J.   concurring)).   In   such   cases,    the    judge   had   to
    "enforce" the clause against the defendant.          Beckles, 
    137 S. Ct. at
    894–95; see United States v. Piper, 
    35 F.3d 611
    , 620 (1st Cir.
    1994) ("The career offender regime, as crafted by Congress and the
    Sentencing Commission, is harsh, but the courts are obliged to
    enforce it according to its tenor.          The district court did so
    here.").    Yet the language gave judges no clear standards for
    deciding when the law bound them to enhance the permissible range
    that those safety valves demonstrate that "some play in the joints
    is not enough to change the character of either statutory
    sentencing limitations or the pre-Booker guidelines from mandatory
    to advisory"). If the Career Offender residual clause were clear
    enough to signal when it would apply, prospective defendants could
    still behave so as to avoid conduct that would trigger its enhanced
    minimum and necessitate post-offense efforts (if available at all)
    to escape it. And in any event, by the time of sentencing — when
    a given defendant could ascertain that he did not qualify for a
    departure — the guideline undeniably fixed the sentences the judge
    could impose and invited arbitrary enforcement, to say nothing of
    the potential impediments the vague residual clause imposed on a
    defendant's ability to argue the enhancement did not apply.
    - 34 -
    —     leaving      that    to     "guesswork"       and    "invit[ing]    arbitrary
    enforcement."        Johnson, 576 U.S. at 597–602.
    As   such,    the     mandatory     Guidelines'       residual    clause
    implicated both concerns driving the vagueness doctrine.                       Just as
    it did in Johnson, "[i]nvoking so shapeless a provision to condemn
    someone to prison" for almost 21 to 27 years "does not comport
    with the Constitution's guarantee of due process."                    Id. at 602.
    (iii)         Departures
    In its last effort to dodge the Johnson train, the
    government suggests that the fact that judges could depart in some
    cases gives grist for a reasonable claim that the mandatory
    Guidelines did not "fix" sentences like the ACCA did Johnson's.
    But the government does not argue (and it is unlikely, on this
    record, that it could) that Shea's case is one of those "specific,
    limited" cases in which the Guidelines permitted a departure.
    Booker, 543 U.S. at 234.                Remember:     under the SRA, departures
    were "unavailable" to most defendants.                    Booker, 543 U.S. at 232–
    35;     see     also       Moore,       871    F.3d       at   83    (noting      that
    "[d]epartures . . . were limited in scope, and sentencing courts
    had little leeway in employing them," and citing six cases in which
    we held departures unauthorized); United States v. Pereira, 
    272 F.3d 76
    , 80 (1st Cir. 2001) ("[E]xisting caselaw define[d] the
    parameters for departure, outside of which a court [could ]not go
    without assuming the risk of acting beyond permissible limits.");
    - 35 -
    Reid, 252 F. Supp. 3d at 67 & n.2 (describing the mandatory
    Guidelines as a "rigidly imposed . . . straitjacket" under which
    we   "stringently   policed    any   sentences   below    the   applicable
    Guideline range" and "district judges were compelled to impose
    harshly inflated prison terms on thousands of defendants").          So in
    cases where it applied, the mandatory residual clause almost always
    exposed the defendant to a higher maximum or minimum sentence —
    and most often to both, thereby raising "the penalty affixed to
    the crime," Alleyne, 570 U.S. at 112, and triggering the dual
    concerns animating the vagueness doctrine.
    Shea asserts that his case was a typical one — that the
    Career Offender Guideline (rather than the force clause or an
    exercise of departure discretion) enhanced his sentence as "no
    downward   departures   were   available"   here.        Specifically   (he
    claims), the vague residual clause "fixed his minimum sentence at
    262 months, thereby meaningfully altering his sentencing range.
    Thus, [his] sentencing judge could not have imposed between zero
    and 262 months of incarceration, even though the statute permitted
    such a sentence."12     The record appears to support that claim.
    12These quotes from Shea's reply memo clarify the position
    Shea took in his opening brief, which argued that under Johnson,
    "a provision that defines a crime or fixes a sentence by
    application of double indeterminacy [i.e., uncertainty about the
    "ordinary case" of the crime and the "potential risk" it posed] is
    unconstitutionally vague." Appellant's Br. at 13; see also id. at
    8 (arguing that "the [mandatory] guideline residual clause and the
    - 36 -
    After a full presentence investigation, Shea's probation officer
    wrote that she knew of "no factors, mitigating or aggravating,
    which would justify a departure from the guideline range."   And as
    far as we can tell, no one else has ever identified any ground on
    which the judge could have departed.    On this record, then, the
    habeas court could plausibly agree with Shea and conclude (as the
    Supreme Court did in Booker, and as we did in several pre-Booker
    cases) that the Guideline foreclosed a departure and fixed the
    range of sentences the judge could have imposed.   See Booker, 543
    ACCA residual clause . . . are textually the same and operate in
    the same way" because "they fix a sentence by application of double
    indeterminacy") (emphases added).      He argued that this rule
    "applie[d] to the mandatory career offender guideline residual
    clause." Id. at 20. But he did not address the exceptional cases
    in which the Guidelines were not (strictly speaking) "mandatory"
    because the defendant was eligible for a departure from the
    guideline range. The government's response raised the departure
    issue first — in its (one-liner) responsive argument that courts'
    "ability to depart" in some cases distinguished the pre-Booker
    guideline regime from the ACCA. In reply Shea explained (as we
    quote above) that the departure point was neither here nor there
    because, as in Booker (and as the PSR suggested), none was
    available to him — so his opening arguments about how the
    guidelines were "mandatory" and "fixed" sentences still applied
    with full force. "While a reply brief is not the proper place to
    raise new arguments, it is proper for a court to look there
    for clarification," United States v. Bradstreet, 
    207 F.3d 76
    , 80
    n.1 (1st Cir. 2000) (citation omitted), especially when (as here)
    that clarification responds to an argument raised for the first
    time in the appellee's brief, see Sparkle Hill, Inc. v. Interstate
    Mat Corp., 
    788 F.3d 25
    , 29 (1st Cir. 2015) ("Often, counterpoints
    and rebuttal rejoinders arise or fit most naturally as a reply to
    an opposition argument that could not have reasonably been
    anticipated.   Neither our rules nor fairness require a robust
    application of waiver in such circumstances."); Holmes v. Spencer,
    
    685 F.3d 51
    , 66 (1st Cir. 2012) (considering arguments raised for
    first time in reply to new argument advanced in appellee's brief).
    - 37 -
    U.S. at 235; United States v. Gendraw, 
    337 F.3d 70
    , 72–73 (1st
    Cir. 2003) (determining on appeal that the record "provide[d] no
    basis   for    departure   on   any    ground"   from    the   career-offender
    guideline range, such that "any decision by the district court
    granting a downward departure would have to be reversed"); United
    States v. Rushby, 
    936 F.2d 41
    , 43 (1st Cir. 1991) (concluding that
    if "the district court [had] departed on the basis of these facts
    [to which the appellant pointed], its decision could not have
    withstood     legal   challenge").        All    of   this     bolsters   Shea's
    contention that his petition invokes a rule Johnson dictates —
    because if no departure was available, then his sentence was
    "fixed" by the mandatory Career Offender Guideline, rather than
    the ranges described in his statutes of conviction.
    As   we've   already     explained,       the    possibility    of
    departures in other, exceptional cases did not make the pre-Booker
    Guidelines any less mandatory in cases where no departure was
    available — cases like Freddie Booker's, Booker, 543 U.S. at 234,
    256-57, and this one, as Shea describes it.               So even if jurists
    might reasonably debate whether the rule announced in Johnson would
    apply to a defendant who, in addition to receiving a Career
    Offender designation under the Guidelines, was eligible for a
    departure, they could not reasonably disagree that Johnson applies
    when the Career Offender Guideline's residual clause fixed the
    permissible sentences, as Shea reasonably claims it did here.                See
    - 38 -
    id. at 233-34 (expressly holding that at least in no-departure
    cases the Guidelines "have the force and effect of laws" and
    "require[] the selection of particular sentences").
    As   a   result,   we    conclude    that   in   a   case   where    no
    departure was available, the residual clause in the mandatory
    Career Offender Guideline was, beyond reasonable debate, "a law
    regulating private conduct by fixing permissible sentences" that
    did not "provide notice[ ] and avoid[ ] arbitrary enforcement by
    clearly specifying the range of penalties available."                    Beckles,
    137 U.S. at 895.      As such, the rule recognized in Johnson dictates
    that in such cases, that residual clause violated due process.                   By
    asserting that the judge relied on that clause to enhance his
    mandatory        sentence,         Shea     therefore        "asserts"           the
    "right . . . newly       recognized"       in    Johnson.        
    28 U.S.C. § 2553
    (f)(3); see Chambers, 763 F. App'x at 524–27 (Moore, J.,
    concurring);      Brown,     868    F.3d    at    309–10     (Gregory,      C.J.,
    dissenting); Carter, 422 F. Supp. 3d at 314–17; Hammond, 
    354 F. Supp. 3d 44
    –49; see also supra n.3 (citing cases that reached a
    similar conclusion).
    Wrap Up
    The upshot is that both of Shea's claims are timely.
    The government does not (in this appeal) raise any other threshold
    bar to granting Shea relief.          Rather, it advises that "[i]f this
    Court concludes that the defendant's § 2255 challenge to his career
    - 39 -
    offender designation is timely, the matter should be remanded to
    the district court to consider the merits."
    We agree with the government.            We ordinarily do not
    "consider the merits of an issue advanced by a habeas petitioner
    unless a COA first has been obtained with respect to that issue."
    Butterworth, 775 F.3d at 469 (quoting Peralta v. United States,
    
    597 F.3d 74
    , 83 (1st Cir. 2010)). And in any event, "[w]e generally
    do not rule on questions — whether of fact or of law — until a
    district court has done so, a practice that enhances the quality
    of our decisions both by allowing us to consider the district
    court's   analysis     and   by   allowing   the    parties     to   hone   their
    arguments before presenting them to us."             Moore, 871 F.3d at 79
    (quoting Evans-García v. United States, 
    744 F.3d 235
    , 237–38 (1st
    Cir. 2014)).     In this case, the COA only teed up the timeliness
    issue, and the district court did not broach the merits.
    What's more, to win on the merits of his Johnson-based
    challenge   to   his    sentence,    Shea    will   need   to    prove      "by   a
    preponderance of the evidence" that his "sentence rested on the
    residual clause" of the Career Offender Guideline.                    Dimott v.
    United States, 
    881 F.3d 232
    , 240–43 (1st Cir. 2018) (holding that
    "[t]o prove a Johnson [ ] claim, the movant must show that — more
    likely than not — it was the use of the residual clause that led
    to the sentencing court's enhancement of his sentence") (quoting
    Beeman v. United States, 
    871 F.3d 1215
    , 1221–22 (11th Cir. 2017))).
    - 40 -
    Shea argues that it must have.           He now concedes that his prior
    armed robbery would still have qualified as a crime of violence,
    but he argues that the only other two candidates — Massachusetts
    A&B   and    ABPO   —   did    not   satisfy   the   surviving    clauses    of
    § 4B1.2(a)(2), at least under current precedent.           Appellant's Br.
    at 21–23 (citing Rose, 896 F.3d at 109–10, and Faust, 853 F.3d at
    50–51, 60, among other cases).         In his papers below, he also cited
    cases suggesting that those crimes qualified as predicates only
    under the residual clause when he was sentenced.               See Fernandez,
    121 F.3d at 778–80 (explaining that Massachusetts ABPO qualified
    as a predicate under the residual clause at the time of Shea's
    sentencing); see also Dimott, 881 F.3d at 242 (noting that a
    petitioner    may   rely      on   precedent   existing   at    the   time   of
    sentencing, among other things, to make the required showing).               To
    rule for Shea on the merits, the district court will need to
    resolve this issue of fact (to the extent that it's disputed) on
    remand. See Pullman-Standard v. Swint, 
    456 U.S. 273
    , 291–92 (1982)
    (explaining that "[f]actfinding is the basic responsibility of
    district courts, rather than appellate courts, and . . . the Court
    of Appeals should not . . . resolve[ ] in the first instance [a]
    factual dispute which ha[s] not been considered by the District
    Court" (quoting DeMarco v. United States, 
    415 U.S. 449
    , 450, n.*
    (1974)).     Moreover, because the rule Johnson recognized applies
    only when the residual clause fixed a higher maximum or minimum
    - 41 -
    sentence (as was the case when the judge could not have departed),
    Shea will have to show that it more-likely-than-not did so in his
    case.13
    Enough said then.   We vacate the judgment and remand for
    further proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    -Dissenting Opinion Follows-
    13 We do not intend to foreclose the district court from
    considering any other bar to relief that the government has not
    forfeited. See, e.g., Bartolomeo v. United States, 
    960 F.3d 34
    ,
    48 (1st Cir. 2020) (holding that the district court did not clearly
    err in finding that any error in applying the mandatory residual
    clause did not prejudice the petitioner because the parties had
    agreed at sentencing to a 35-year above-guideline sentence).
    - 42 -
    SELYA,   Circuit   Judge   (dissenting).     Time-and-number
    limitations, generally applicable to certain collateral review
    proceedings, may sometimes be relaxed when a petitioner seeks to
    avail himself of a new rule of constitutional law announced by the
    Supreme Court and expressly made retroactive to cases previously
    decided.   See Teague v. Lane, 
    489 U.S. 288
    , 310 (1989) ("[N]ew
    constitutional rules of criminal procedure will not be applicable
    to those cases which have become final before the new rules are
    announced . . . [u]nless they fall within an exception to the
    general rule."); see also Welch v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1257
    ,
    1264    (2016)    (discussing   exceptions     to     general   bar   on
    retroactivity).     But this principle does not provide free rein to
    the lower federal courts — the courts of appeals and the district
    courts — either to extend a rule into uncharted waters or to
    speculate about where a Supreme Court decision might eventually
    lead.   My colleagues' decision crosses this line, staking out a
    position that the Court has yet to articulate.         Because I cannot
    join this excursion into forbidden terrain, I write separately.
    Let me set the stage.      Here, Shea aspires to file his
    habeas petition out of time, and the applicable statute requires
    that the right he asserts must previously have been recognized by
    the Supreme Court.     See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(3).       This right, he
    says, entails the invalidation of the residual clause of the
    pre-Booker career offender provision of the sentencing guidelines.
    - 43 -
    See United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
     (2005).               Viewed in
    context,   this   proposition   depends   on   the   accuracy   of   Shea's
    assertion that this "new right" was previously recognized by the
    Supreme Court.    Teague, 
    489 U.S. at 301
     ("[A] case announces a new
    rule if the result was not dictated by precedent existing at the
    time the defendant's conviction became final.").            To establish
    this necessary element of his case, Shea relies on the Supreme
    Court's decision in Johnson v. United States, 
    576 U.S. 591
     (2015).
    Shea's reliance is mislaid:          despite my colleagues'
    heroic efforts in his behalf, such a link cannot be forged.             To
    establish the requisite recognition, the Supreme Court would have
    had to either formally acknowledge or treat as valid the right
    asserted by Shea.    United States v. Green, 
    898 F.3d 315
    , 318 (3rd
    Cir. 2018).   It has done neither.
    Johnson is surely a new right recognized by the Supreme
    Court because it required overruling several prior Supreme Court
    decisions upholding and applying the residual clause of the Armed
    Career Criminal Act (ACCA).     See Welch, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1264
     ("It is
    undisputed that Johnson announced a new rule.").           This is only
    half of the battle, and the remaining question is whether the due
    process principles enunciated in Johnson perforce invalidate the
    residual clause of the career offender provision of the pre-Booker
    sentencing guidelines.    If reasonable jurists can disagree about
    whether the rule stated in Johnson demands a finding that the
    - 44 -
    pre-Booker residual clause of the career offender guideline is
    unconstitutional, it necessarily follows that the new right upon
    which Shea relies was not announced in Johnson and has not yet
    been recognized by the Supreme Court.                 See Chaidez v. United
    States, 
    568 U.S. 342
    , 347 (2013) ("'[A] case announces a new rule
    if the result was not dictated by precedent' . . . [a]nd a holding
    is not so dictated . . . unless it would have been 'apparent to
    all reasonable jurists.'" (quoting Lambrix v. Singletary, 
    520 U.S. 518
    , 527–28 (1997))).
    In     my   view,     neither     Johnson    nor        its   progeny
    unequivocally answer this question.              The Johnson Court overruled
    earlier decisions and held that the ACCA's residual clause was
    unconstitutional under due process principles.                 Johnson, 576 U.S.
    at 596-98.         Later on, the Court determined that Johnson applied
    retroactively to cases on collateral review. See Welch, 
    136 S. Ct. at 1257
    .      Even so, the Court subsequently upheld — as against a
    Johnson-inspired attack — a due process challenge to the residual
    clause   of    the    career      offender    provision   of    the    post-Booker
    sentencing guidelines.         See Beckles v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 886
     (2017).         In reaching this result, the Court distinguished
    Johnson on the ground that the sentencing guidelines, made advisory
    by the Booker decision, did not "fix the permissible sentences for
    criminal offenses" because those guidelines merely informed the
    district court's exercise of sentencing discretion.                     
    Id.
     at 892
    - 45 -
    (emphasis omitted). As the Fifth Circuit aptly noted, "the Court's
    decisions up until this point evince a distinction between statutes
    that fix sentences and Guidelines that attempt to constrain the
    discretion of sentencing judges."              United States v. London, 
    937 F.3d 502
    , 507 (5th Cir. 2019).
    To be sure, the pre-Booker guidelines were thought to be
    mandatory, not advisory.          See Booker, 543 U.S. at 234.                  Those
    guidelines cabined the range, within the statutory sentencing
    framework,   in   which    the   district      court    had    to     sentence   the
    defendant; subject, however, to a modicum of flexibility based on
    the sentencing court's authority to depart.                 See id.
    The short of it is that Johnson established a rule that
    due process principles apply to laws that fix sentences — a rule
    that the Supreme Court later made retroactive.                         For present
    purposes, though, a chasmal gap exists:                there is no subsequent
    decision of the Court answering the question of whether the rule
    in Johnson extends to a guideline provision that does not have the
    effect of fixing a sentence by altering the statutory penalties.
    My colleagues do not succeed in bridging this gap, and I conclude
    that unless and until the Supreme Court answers the dispositive
    question   favorably      to   him,   Shea     does   not    have     a   new   right
    recognized by the Supreme Court sufficient to bear the weight of
    his petition.
    - 46 -
    This conclusion is hardly original, and I see no need to
    repastinate soil already well-plowed.    All but one of the courts
    of appeals to have addressed this question have determined that
    Johnson does not constitute the newly recognized right that Shea
    needs to show.   Nunez v. United States, 
    954 F.3d 465
    , 469 (2d Cir.
    2020); London, 937 F.3d at 508; United States v. Blackstone, 
    903 F.3d 1020
    , 1028 (9th Cir. 2018); Russo v. United States, 
    902 F.3d 880
    , 883 (8th Cir. 2018); Green, 898 F.3d at 321; United States v.
    Greer, 
    881 F.3d 1241
    , 1248-49 (10th Cir. 2018); United States v.
    Brown, 
    868 F.3d 297
    , 304 (4th Cir. 2017); Raybon v. United States,
    
    867 F.3d 625
    , 630-31 (6th Cir. 2017).       But see Cross v. United
    States, 
    892 F.3d 288
    , 307 (7th Cir. 2018).          These decisions
    thoughtfully address my colleagues' contentions both that the
    right recognized in Johnson extends beyond the ACCA and that the
    pre-Booker guidelines "fixed" sentences in violation of Johnson.
    See, e.g., London, 937 F.3d at 507 ("The pre-Booker Guidelines
    . . . only directed the discretion of the district judge within
    the statutory range . . . ."); Russo, 902 F.3d at 883 ("It is
    reasonably debatable whether Johnson's holding regarding the ACCA
    extends to the former mandatory guidelines."). I am of the opinion
    that, although the Court may in the future find the pre-Booker
    residual    clause     of   the    career      offender   guideline
    unconstitutionally vague, Johnson does not dictate such a result.
    Nunez, 954 F.3d at 470 (concluding that challenges to identical
    - 47 -
    residual   clauses   in   other    contexts   were    not   "necessarily
    straightforward" and "further undermine [the] contention that
    Johnson in and of itself dictates the result of a vagueness
    challenge to the residual clause in the pre-Booker" guidelines);
    Blackstone, 903 F.3d at 1026 ("[Beckles] may permit an inference
    that the Court might reach a different result regarding a sentence
    imposed while the Guidelines were mandatory, . . . but that
    inference has not been recognized by the Court.")
    To my mind, the proof of the pudding is in the case law.
    While precedents from other circuits are not binding upon us, the
    reasoned decisions of a large number of our sister circuits are,
    at the very least, entitled to respectful consideration.             And
    where, as here, those decisions constitute a wide majority, rest
    on persuasive analysis, and tilt heavily in a uniformed direction,
    it blinks reality to suggest that jurists of reason could not
    decide the contested issue in that way.
    I need go no further.     The right that Shea is asserting
    is not a right that flows automatically from Johnson.            Indeed,
    that right is not dictated by Johnson and has not yet been
    explicitly recognized by the Supreme Court.          That so many judges
    have rejected Johnson's applicability to pre-Booker guidelines
    sounds the death knell for Shea's appeal.      See Russo, 902 F.3d at
    883; Greer, 898 F.3d at 1245.       Given the tenebrous state of the
    law with respect to how (if at all) Johnson affects the career
    - 48 -
    offender provision of the pre-Booker sentencing guidelines, I
    would hold that Shea has not cleared the high bar set by section
    2255(f)(3).   Consequently, I would affirm the district court's
    dismissal of Shea's petition with respect to the guidelines issue.
    I respectfully dissent as to that issue.14
    14 Inasmuch as the parties are in agreement as to the disposition
    of the unrelated issue involving 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c), I need take
    no position as to that issue.
    - 49 -