Williams v. Trammell , 782 F.3d 1184 ( 2015 )


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  •                                                                               FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                              Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                      April 10, 2015
    TENTH CIRCUIT                      Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    Clerk of Court
    JEREMY ALAN WILLIAMS,
    Petitioner - Appellant,
    v.                                                          No. 12-5190
    ANITA TRAMMELL, Warden,
    Oklahoma State Penitentiary,
    Respondent - Appellee.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE NORTHERN DISTRICT OF OKLAHOMA
    (D.C. No. 4:09-CV-00164-JHP-TLW)
    Ryan A. Ray of Norman Wohlgemuth Chandler & Jeter, P.C., Tulsa, Oklahoma (Randy A.
    Bauman of the Office of the Federal Public Defender, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with
    him on the briefs) for Petitioner-Appellant.
    Jennifer J. Dickson of the Office of Attorney General, Oklahoma City, Oklahoma (E.
    Scott Pruitt, Attorney General of Oklahoma, with her on the brief) for Respondent-
    Appellee.
    Before HARTZ, GORSUCH, and PHILLIPS, Circuit Judges.
    PHILLIPS, Circuit Judge.
    In this habeas case, Jeremy Alan Williams challenges his Oklahoma conviction for
    first-degree murder and his accompanying sentence of death. The district court denied
    relief but issued a certificate of appealability, giving Williams the ability to appeal his
    claims of ineffective assistance of counsel. In addition, this court also agreed to hear
    Williams’s sufficiency-of-the-evidence and cumulative-prejudice claims. Exercising
    jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 1291
     and 2253(a), we agree with the district court and
    conclude that Williams is not entitled to relief.
    I. BACKGROUND
    The following facts come from the direct-appeal decision of the Oklahoma Court of
    Criminal Appeals (OCCA) unless otherwise noted. See Williams v. State, 
    188 P.3d 208
    ,
    214–218 (Okla. Crim. App. 2008). We presume that the OCCA’s factual findings are
    correct. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     (e)(1).
    On the morning of June 22, 2004, two gunmen (one wearing a black-hooded
    sweatshirt and the other wearing a white-hooded sweatshirt) robbed the First Fidelity
    Bank in Tulsa, Oklahoma. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 214
    . Both men wore ski masks. 
    Id.
    During the robbery, the gunmen shot three people—bank customer Howard Smith, bank
    president Mark Poole, and bank teller Amber Rogers. 
    Id.
     When the gunmen entered the
    bank, the one wearing white ordered Poole to open the safe. He complied, but the safe
    would not open because it was on a fifteen-minute time delay. 
    Id.
     Not long after, Smith
    entered the bank. He saw the gunman wearing white, but not the one wearing black. As
    Smith raised his arms, the gunman in black shot him twice from behind. Id.; (Trial. Tr.
    vol. III at 745–46.) That gunman then went behind the teller area, where the gunman
    wearing white was arguing with Poole. The gunman in black shot Poole in his side, with
    -2-
    the bullet traveling through his right arm before entering his chest. (Trial Tr. vol. III at
    666, 679–80). Then the one in white stood above Poole and also shot him, hitting Poole
    in the leg. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 214
    ; (Trial Tr. vol. III at 671). As the two gunmen left,
    the one wearing white turned around and fired a shot that killed Rogers as she lowered
    her head and crouched on the floor. Id.; (Trial. Tr. vol. III at 721–22). Smith and Poole
    survived their gunshot wounds.
    A witness’s description of the getaway car led police to Jeremy Williams and, soon
    after, to Alvin Jordan. The state charged both men with first-degree murder (under
    alternate theories of malice murder and felony murder), armed bank robbery, and
    shooting with intent to kill. Williams alone went to trial.
    The evidence connecting Williams to the robbery was compelling. One of Jordan’s
    girlfriends testified that, sometime before the June 22 bank robbery, she overheard
    Williams tell Jordan about having previously robbed a bank located on the second floor
    of a building. First Fidelity was on the second story of a multi-use office building. In fact,
    a single gunman had robbed that same bank on May 11. After arresting Williams for the
    second bank robbery, police matched his fingerprints to those lifted from the bank after
    this first robbery.
    Before the June 22 bank robbery, the same girlfriend went to Williams’s apartment
    with Jordan. While there, she saw a revolver resembling the one that the masked gunman
    dressed in black used on June 22. She also heard Williams tell Jordan that he would kill if
    he had to.
    -3-
    Another one of Jordan’s girlfriends placed Williams, Jordan, and the alleged getaway
    driver together at 4:00 a.m. the morning of the crime. In addition, Jordan’s aunt placed
    the three men together soon after the robbery and testified that Williams had boasted that
    he had shot some people and that he had divided the money with Jordan and the driver.
    According to her testimony, Williams said that he and Jordan each came away with
    $1100, leaving $700 for the driver. The bank reported just under $3000 stolen during the
    June 22 bank robbery.
    Williams’s girlfriend testified that he arrived at their apartment later that morning with
    the same wad of stolen cash. That evening, the girlfriend saw Williams retrieve a ski
    mask and guns from the yard of an abandoned house and wipe the guns clean. Williams
    owned those guns, and their caliber and appearance matched the firearms used in the
    robbery. Police later determined that Williams’s DNA matched that found on the ski mask
    and that a footprint left at the bank matched the shoes he was wearing when police
    arrested him.
    On top of all this, Williams testified that he had robbed First Fidelity in May. He said
    he had jumped off the second-floor balcony when fleeing, just as one of the June 22
    robbers had done. Nevertheless, Williams maintained that he did not rob First Fidelity on
    June 22.
    Both gunmen shot people during the robbery—although it was not entirely clear who
    shot Amber Rogers. The state’s theory was that Williams was the gunman in black and
    that Jordan was the gunman in white. Eyewitnesses said that the gunman in black shot
    Smith from behind while the gunman in white commanded Rogers to unload the till. The
    -4-
    gunman in black then went behind the teller area, where he and the other gunman both
    shot Poole; the gunman in black first shot Poole because Poole could not immediately
    open the time-delayed safes. As the gunmen fled the bank, one turned around and
    delivered the fatal shot to Rogers as she crouched on the floor. A bank employee
    identified the gunman in white as the killer. Yet in the wall behind Rogers’s teller station,
    investigators found a slug of the same caliber as the revolver used by the robber in black.
    Still images from the bank’s security cameras showed both gunmen in various positions,
    but they did not clearly depict how and when Rogers had been shot.
    The state argued that it did not matter whether Williams was the actual triggerman.
    The felony-murder charge certainly did not depend on it, and Williams could be guilty of
    malice-murder too, so long as he aided and abetted Jordan. The trial court instructed the
    jury to this end. Ultimately, using separate verdict forms, the jury found Williams guilty
    of both felony murder and malice murder.
    At the penalty phase of trial, the state argued that Williams deserved the death penalty
    because of three aggravating circumstances: (1) the murder involved a great risk of death
    to more than one person; (2) the murder was committed to avoid arrest or prosecution;
    and (3) Williams posed a continuing threat to society. The state presented evidence of the
    life-threatening nature of Smith’s and Poole’s injuries and impact statements from Amber
    Rogers’s family. Otherwise, the state relied on the evidence it presented at trial.
    The defense conceded the presence of the first aggravating circumstance but argued
    the state had failed to prove the other two. The defense also presented evidence of several
    mitigating circumstances, arguing that Williams: (1) did not have a prior criminal record;
    -5-
    (2) was likely to be rehabilitated; (3) was just 21 at the time of the murder; (4) was under
    the influence of an emotional disturbance or intoxicants or both; and (5) had a difficult
    upbringing and home life. Social historian, Dr. Wanda Draper, and Williams’s mother
    recounted Williams’s turbulent family history for the jury.
    In the end, the jury found that the murder involved a great risk of death to more than
    one person and that Williams was a continuing threat to society. The jury further found
    that the mitigating factors did not outweigh the aggravating factors and voted to impose
    the death penalty.
    The OCCA affirmed the convictions and sentence on direct appeal, see Williams, 
    188 P.3d 208
    , and later denied post-conviction relief, see Williams v. State (First Application
    for Post-Conviction Relief), No. PCD–2006–1012, slip. op. (Okla. Crim. App. Jan. 13,
    2009) (unpublished). In response to Williams’s habeas petition, the federal district court
    denied his claims without an evidentiary hearing. But the district court did issue a
    certificate of appealability for two claims: (1) ineffective assistance of counsel (mostly
    during the guilt phase of trial) and (2) ineffective assistance of counsel at sentencing. This
    court then expanded the certificate of appealability to include two more claims: (1)
    sufficiency of the evidence to support Williams’s malice-murder conviction and (2)
    cumulative error. These four claims are now before us on appeal.
    II. DISCUSSION
    A. Standard of Review
    -6-
    “In general, if a convicted state criminal defendant can show a federal habeas court
    that his conviction rests upon a violation of the Federal Constitution, he may well obtain
    a writ of habeas corpus that requires a new trial, a new sentence, or release.” Trevino v.
    Thaler, 
    133 S. Ct. 1911
    , 1917 (2013). 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     governs our review of habeas
    petition and focuses on how the state court resolved the claim. Byrd v. Workman, 
    645 F.3d 1159
    , 1165 (10th Cir. 2011).
    For claims that the state court adjudicated on the merits, we will only grant habeas
    relief if a petitioner establishes that the state court decision was “contrary to, or involved
    an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court of the United States,” or “was based on an unreasonable determination of
    facts in light of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1)–(2).
    We review de novo claims that the state court did not adjudicate on the merits. Hooks
    v. Workman, 
    689 F.3d 1148
    , 1163–64 (10th Cir. 2012). A habeas petitioner must first
    exhaust his claims in state court before a federal court may review them. § 2254(b)(1)(A).
    B. Sufficiency of the Evidence
    We begin with Williams’s claim that the evidence was insufficient to support his
    conviction for first-degree malice murder. Even if Williams were to prevail, he would
    still be guilty of first-degree felony murder based on the jury’s separate verdicts. Why not
    then disregard this claim altogether and let Williams’s first-degree murder conviction
    -7-
    stand on felony-murder grounds? There are at least two reasons why addressing the
    sufficiency claim is the better course.
    First, the OCCA construed Williams’s verdict as one of malice murder. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 225
    . This is Oklahoma’s practice in cases involving separate convictions of malice
    and felony murder because it avoids the need to vacate the underlying felony conviction
    (otherwise a source of double-jeopardy concerns). See Alverson v. State, 
    983 P.2d 498
    ,
    521 (Okla. Crim. App. 1999). Thus, upholding Williams’s first-degree-murder conviction
    based solely on felony murder would disturb the OCCA’s preferred construction. It would
    also require dismissal of the underlying robbery conviction. See Harris v. Oklahoma, 
    433 U.S. 682
    , 682 (1977) (per curiam) (“When, as here, conviction of a greater crime . . .
    cannot be had without conviction of the lesser crime . . . the Double Jeopardy Clause bars
    prosecution for the lesser crime, after conviction of the greater one.”).
    Second, if Williams’s first-degree-murder conviction rested on felony murder alone,
    we would need to address a separate question: whether Williams is even eligible for the
    death penalty. See Ring v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 584
    , 609 (2002) (holding that a jury, not a
    judge, must find facts necessary for imposition of the death penalty); Tison v. Arizona,
    
    481 U.S. 137
    , 158 (1987) (clarifying that the death penalty may be imposed on a felony
    murder defendant who was not the actual killer and who had no specific intent to kill, if
    evidence shows “major participation in the felony committed, combined with reckless
    indifference to human life.”) Although Williams would like us to reach this question,
    there is no need to do so if the evidence supporting his malice-murder conviction was
    sufficient. For the reasons discussed below, we conclude that it was.
    -8-
    In Jackson v. Virginia, the Supreme Court held that a conviction based on insufficient
    evidence violates the Due Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. 
    443 U.S. 307
    ,
    316 (1979). Weighing this constitutional guarantee against the jury’s exclusive role as
    fact-finder, Jackson extended the familiar sufficiency-of-the-evidence standard to the
    habeas realm: “the relevant question is whether, after viewing the evidence in the light
    most favorable to the prosecution, any rational trier of fact could have found the essential
    elements of the crime beyond a reasonable doubt.” 
    Id. at 319
     (emphasis original).
    In applying Jackson, we look to state law to determine the essential elements of the
    crime at issue. 
    Id.
     at 324 n.16. Here, Oklahoma’s first-degree murder statute provides
    that:
    A person commits murder in the first degree when that person unlawfully
    and with malice aforethought causes the death of another human being.
    Malice is that deliberate intention unlawfully to take away the life of a
    human being, which is manifested by external circumstances capable of
    proof.
    
    Okla. Stat. tit. 21, § 701.7
    (A). Additionally, Oklahoma law punishes as a principal any
    person who aids and abets the commission of a crime. 
    Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 21, § 172
     (“All
    persons concerned in the commission of crime, whether it be felony or misdemeanor, and
    whether they directly commit the act constituting the offense, or aid and abet in its
    commission, though not present, are principals.”). On this point, the state court instructed
    the jury that a principal “is one who directly and actively commits the act(s) constituting
    the offense or knowingly and with criminal intent aids and abets in the commission of the
    offense or whether present or not, advises and encourages the commission of the
    offense.” (Pleadings vol. VI at 1056). The state trial court also instructed the jury that:
    -9-
    One who does not actively commit the offense, but who aids, promotes, or
    encourages the commission of a crime by another person, either by act or
    counsel or both, is deemed to be a principal to the crime if he knowingly
    did what he did either with criminal intent or with knowledge of the other
    person’s intent. To aid or abet another in the commission of a crime implies
    a consciousness of guilt in instigating, encouraging, promoting, or aiding in
    the commission of that criminal offense.
    (Pleadings vol. VI at 1057).
    Williams argues that even if the evidence was sufficient to prove his involvement in
    the robbery and his intentional shooting of Smith and Poole, no evidence proved that he
    caused the death of Amber Rogers. The state does not argue otherwise. Nor did the
    OCCA believe that the state’s evidence pointed to Williams as the actual killer. Williams,
    
    188 P.3d at 226
    . Accordingly, like the OCCA, we address whether the evidence was
    sufficient to support Williams’s conviction under an aiding and abetting theory.
    A conviction for aiding and abetting can rest on a wide range of underlying conduct,
    including “acts, words or gestures encouraging the commission of the offense, either
    before or at the time of the offense.” Wingfield v. Massie, 
    122 F.3d 1329
    , 1332 (10th Cir.
    1997) (quoting VanWoundenberg v. State, 
    720 P.2d 328
    , 333 (Okla. Crim. App. 1986))
    (internal quotation marks omitted). Some mental state beyond “mere assent” or
    “acquiescence” is also required, Wingfield, 
    122 F.3d at 1332
    , but in the malice-murder
    context, the OCCA has required even more. To convict an aider and abettor as a principal
    in a first-degree-malice-murder prosecution, the state must prove: “(1) that the defendant
    [that is, the aider and abettor] personally intended the death of the victim; and (2) that the
    defendant aided and abetted with full knowledge of the perpetrator’s intent.” 
    Id.
     (citing
    Johnson v. State, 
    928 P.2d 309
    , 315 (Okla. Crim. App. 1996)).
    - 10 -
    At least, this was the law. On Williams’s direct appeal, the OCCA suggested in a
    footnote that Johnson’s two-pronged intent requirement might be outdated:
    According to Appellant’s brief, we must determine whether the evidence
    was sufficient to show that either Williams shot and intended to kill Amber
    Rogers, or Williams aided and abetted the Rogers’ killer with a personal
    intent to kill or he aided and abetted with full knowledge of the intent of the
    killer. See Johnson v. State, 
    1996 OK CR 36
    , ¶ 20 
    928 P.2d 309
    , 315. We
    overrule the language in Johnson which indicates this is the proper test and
    we continue to abide by the general aiding and abetting language. See
    Banks v. State, 
    2002 OK CR 9
    , ¶ 13, 
    43 P.3d 390
    , 397 (“Aiding and abetting
    in a crime requires the State to show that the accused procured the crime to
    be done, or aided, assisted, abetted, advised or encouraged the commission
    of the crime.”) We note that Appellant would even lose this proposition
    under the Johnson test, because his involvement was such that he
    personally had the intent to kill or knew that his codefendant had the intent
    to kill, when Amber Rogers was shot.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    225 n.18.
    We are unsure what to make of footnote 18. On one hand, the OCCA appears to have
    rejected the two-pronged intent requirement from Johnson. On the other hand, as we
    discuss below, the OCCA still seems to consider Williams’s case under Johnson in
    evaluating the sufficiency of the evidence.
    Further muddling matters is the OCCA’s treatment of Banks. The OCCA cited Banks
    to state its adherence to “the general aiding and abetting language” as the “proper test”
    for malice murder under an aiding and abetting theory. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    225 n.18
    (citing Banks, 
    43 P.3d at 397
     (“Aiding and abetting in a crime requires the State to show
    that the accused procured the crime to be done, or aided, assisted, abetted, advised or
    encouraged the commission of the crime.”)). Yet, the OCCA in Banks also stated nearly
    identical language to that from Johnson:
    - 11 -
    To convict Banks of malice aforethought murder, the jury had to find that
    he caused the unlawful death of a human with malice aforethought, or aided
    and abetted another in the commission of the murder with the personal
    intent to kill, and with knowledge of the perpetrator’s intent to kill.
    See Banks, 
    43 P.3d at 397
     (emphasis added).
    We are uncertain why the OCCA overruled Johnson without any mention of this
    similar language from Banks. We also note that, as far as we can tell, the only meaningful
    difference between the Johnson and Banks standards is that Johnson states that the aider
    and abettor must intend the death “of the victim,” 
    928 P.2d at 315
    , and Banks does not, 
    43 P.3d at 397
    .
    Further adding to our confusion is the OCCA’s statement that it will abide by its
    “general aiding and abetting language.” Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    225 n.18. This language—
    found in the very next sentence of Banks—features no mens rea requirement at all, but
    simply provides that the aider and abettor must advise, encourage, assist—or, rather
    unhelpfully, aid and abet. Banks, 
    43 P.3d at 397
    . This suggests to us that an Oklahoma
    conviction for aiding and abetting malice murder may no longer require intent of any
    kind.
    That would cause serious problems. We generally disfavor offenses that require no
    mens rea. See Staples v. United States, 
    511 U.S. 600
    , 606 (1994). One of the “basics”
    about aiding and abetting is the intent requirement—“a person aids and abets a crime
    when (in addition to taking the requisite act) he intends to facilitate that offense’s
    commission.” Rosemond v. United States, 
    134 S. Ct. 1240
    , 1248 (2014). Oklahoma’s
    - 12 -
    provision for aiding and abetting, which apparently requires nothing more than “advising
    or encouraging,” seems to miss the mark.
    Williams asserts that, whatever the OCCA did, it did not give him the benefit of
    Johnson. According to him, footnote 18 shows that the OCCA failed to consider whether
    the evidence was sufficient to prove the crime. He maintains that no rational jury could
    have found him guilty of the essential elements of aiding and abetting malice murder as
    those elements are set forth in Johnson—namely, that he “intended” Rogers’s death. See
    Johnson, 
    928 P.2d at 315
    . Additionally, he argues that the OCCA’s overruling of Johnson
    violated due-process limitations on the retroactive application of new rules of law. See
    Rogers v. Tennessee, 
    532 U.S. 451
    , 459 (2001).
    The state responds that Williams cannot raise the Rogers argument because he failed
    to exhaust it in state court. Of course, Williams had no way of knowing that the OCCA
    would purportedly overrule Johnson on direct appeal. He did seek rehearing on that basis,
    which the OCCA denied. Still, according to the state, Williams did not fairly present his
    claim because a petition for rehearing is discretionary. See Castille v. Peoples, 
    489 U.S. 346
    , 349 (1989) (holding that presentation of claims to a State’s highest court on
    discretionary review does not satisfy exhaustion requirements of 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    .)
    We assume (without deciding) that the state is right and that Williams should have
    raised his “ex post facto” argument by way of post-conviction application. Because
    footnote 18 intertwines with Williams’s properly exhausted Jackson claim, however, we
    will consider Williams’s arguments on the merits. See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b)(2) (“An
    application for a writ of habeas corpus may be denied on the merits, notwithstanding the
    - 13 -
    failure of the applicant to exhaust the remedies available in the courts of the State.”) In
    the end, despite the OCCA’s confusion in, and our concern about, footnote 18, we do not
    believe Williams is entitled to habeas relief because of it.
    While the OCCA may have overruled Johnson, it also indicated that Williams’s
    sufficiency claim failed under that very standard. See Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    225 n.18
    (“Appellant would even lose this proposition under the Johnson test.”) True, as Williams
    points out, the OCCA then proceeded to misstate Johnson in the very next breath—
    claiming it requires evidence of intent to kill or knowledge of the perpetrator’s intent,
    instead of evidence that “the aider and abetter personally intended the death of the victim
    and aided and abetted with full knowledge of the intent of the perpetrator.” Johnson, 
    928 P.2d at 315
     (emphasis added). Even so, in the body of its opinion, the OCCA was faithful
    to Johnson. It considered whether the evidence was sufficient to prove Williams’s intent
    to kill, and it discussed Williams’s knowledge of Jordan’s intent. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 226
    . Although the OCCA overruled Johnson, it still evaluated Williams’s arguments
    under what Johnson previously required. See 
    id. at 226
    . Regardless, and no matter what
    footnote 18 says or means, we believe the OCCA weighed the evidence against the
    essential elements of the crime.
    In one respect, however, the OCCA did not adopt Williams’s view of the elements. As
    Johnson stated, a person aids and abets malice murder if he intends the death “of the
    victim.” 
    928 P.2d at 315
    . Given this, Williams argues the evidence in his case needed to
    show—but did not show—that he intended the death of Amber Rogers, not just anyone.
    The OCCA disagreed. In its view, it was enough that there was sufficient evidence of
    - 14 -
    Williams’s general intent to kill and his knowledge of Jordan’s similar general intent.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 226
    .
    Addressing Williams’s Jackson claim, we decline the invitation to consider whether
    the OCCA should have required proof of intent to kill Rogers because, in our view, this is
    fundamentally a matter of state law. See Anderson-Bey v. Zavaras, 
    641 F.3d 445
    , 448–52
    (10th Cir. 2011) (rejecting Jackson claim that amounted to a challenge to the state court’s
    interpretation of an “uncertain” statutory term.) This is not to say that courts may simply
    ignore elements previously (and unequivocally) deemed essential in resolving a
    sufficiency-of-the-evidence claim. However, before Williams’s case, the OCCA had not
    yet addressed the requirements of aiding and abetting malice murder under truly
    analogous circumstances—that is, where two gunmen shot different people during the
    same criminal enterprise, but only one of the shooting victims died. Other cases
    addressing aiding and abetting in the malice-murder context involved the death of the
    targeted victim. See, e.g. Young v. State, 
    12 P.3d 20
    , 29–30, 40 (Okla. Crim. App. 2000);
    Torres v. State, 
    962 P.2d 3
    , 8, 16–17 (Okla. Crim. App. 1998).
    It would make sense in those cases that the question would be phrased as whether the
    aider and abettor intended the death “of the victim”—i.e. the targeted person who died.
    Here, however, the OCCA determined that, where there are multiple targets and only one
    death, the gunman whose target survives may be convicted of first-degree malice murder
    if he knows his cohort intended to kill, and the cohort’s gunshot turns out to be fatal.
    Although it would have been reasonable to reach a different conclusion, the OCCA did
    not—and its interpretation is authoritative. See Estelle v. McGuire, 
    502 U.S. 62
    , 67–68
    - 15 -
    (1991) (“[I]t is not the province of a federal habeas court to reexamine state-court
    determinations on state-law questions.”).
    Nor are we persuaded that the OCCA’s resolution of Williams’s Jackson claim
    offended the due process guarantee of fair warning. The Supreme Court has “repeatedly
    held that a state court’s interpretation of state law, including one announced on direct
    appeal of the challenged conviction, binds a federal court sitting in habeas corpus.”
    Bradshaw v. Richey, 
    546 U.S. 74
    , 76 (2005) (per curiam) (emphasis added). This makes
    sense in light of the discussion above; it is not unusual that courts need to clarify and
    interpret prior opinions as new circumstances and fact patterns come up against the law—
    particularly against common law doctrines (such as intent). See Rogers, 
    532 U.S. at 461
    .
    So long as any interpretation (or alteration) is not “unexpected and indefensible by
    reference to the law which had been expressed prior to the conduct in issue,” there are no
    due process concerns. 
    Id. at 462
     (citation omitted). Whatever measure of evolution the
    OCCA took in extending its aiding and abetting law to Williams’s malice-murder
    conviction, we can hardly say it was unexpected or indefensible.
    Having addressed footnote 18 and Williams’s due-process arguments on that score,
    we turn now to the sufficiency of the evidence. As discussed, the OCCA weighed the
    evidence against the requirements set forth in Johnson, with the exception of the
    particular requirement that Williams needed to intend the death of Amber Rogers. We
    approve that weighing. The question now is whether the evidence met the constitutional
    threshold—or, more precisely, because we address the question on habeas—whether the
    - 16 -
    OCCA’s determination that the evidence was sufficient to support the jury’s verdict was
    itself reasonable. Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1167.
    Once the jury concluded that Williams robbed First Fidelity, the evidence was
    susceptible to limited interpretations. See Torres v. Mullin, 
    317 F.3d 1145
    , 1155 (10th Cir.
    2003) (deciding that a rational juror could conclude that the defendant had the requisite
    intent to kill, despite evidence that was susceptible to interpretation). As the state argued,
    the jury could have concluded that Williams and Jordan jointly planned to rob the bank
    and to kill whoever stood in their way. Alternatively, the jury might have concluded that
    the plan was just to rob the bank and that Williams never intended for anyone to die. But
    we cannot consider that option, because the jury found that Williams shot with intent to
    kill when it convicted him of two counts of that crime.
    Another possibility is that Williams intended to kill but that Jordan did not. But the
    evidence belies this theory because Jordan shot Rogers at close range in the middle of her
    torso while she was crouching on the ground. This leaves just one possible interpretation
    that might lead to acquittal: that Williams intended to kill without knowing that Jordan
    intended to do the same. This is an unflattering defense to say the least. Apparently,
    Williams would like us to believe that he knew himself to be capable of murder but that
    he thought better of his friend.
    The OCCA was skeptical of this notion on direct appeal and said as follows:
    It is clear that [Williams] intended to kill at the bank. It is also clear that he
    knew that his codefendant was armed with a loaded weapon and both of
    them had spoken of killing, “if they had [to],” in preparation for this
    robbery. If he had intended to kill when he shot, how could he not know
    that his codefendant also shot with intent to kill? These two defendants
    - 17 -
    acted with one accord and the evidence shows that they shot each person
    with intent to kill.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 226
    .
    Some of the OCCA’s observations are more persuasive than others. Least persuasive
    in our view is the observation that Jordan spoke of killing if he had to. We find no record
    support for attributing this remark to Jordan. In fact, it was Williams who said that “he
    would kill if he had to”—as the OCCA correctly noted in its recitation of the record.
    (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1106.) The OCCA may have merely intended to observe that Jordan
    participated in conversations about killing. Regardless, this finding, one that Williams
    does not challenge here, was just one supporting the OCCA’s conclusion.
    Somewhat more persuasive is the OCCA’s observation that Williams’s own clear
    intent to kill made it unlikely that Williams could be ignorant that Jordan shot with a
    different purpose. This might suggest that the OCCA believed that Williams became
    aware of Jordan’s intent to kill when Jordan first shot Poole. That could be. More likely,
    however, we think the OCCA simply meant to point out that it was unlikely that Williams
    was ignorant of Jordan’s intent to kill based on his own obvious intent.
    This brings us to the OCCA’s final and most persuasive point—that Williams and
    Jordan acted together with a shared understanding. The following evidence supports this
    conclusion:
     According to one witness, Williams and Jordan hung out nearly every day
    in the six months leading up to the robbery. Another witness said that the
    two “was running together,” and neither one was really the leader of the
    other. (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1118, 1157).
    - 18 -
     During this time, Jordan was nearly always armed—and Williams supplied
    him with a gun on at least one occasion.
     Williams knew that Jordan used guns to get what he wanted. In fact,
    Williams testified that Jordan had pulled a gun on him more than once.
     Williams also testified that he knew that Jordan had shot some people
    during his robbery of a convenience store the week before the robbery.
     Williams testified that he “wasn’t surprised” that Jordan had shot people at
    the convenience store. (Trial Tr. vol. VII at 1547.) His friend had a
    reputation for being particularly “crazy” and “violent.” (Trial Tr. vol. V at
    1148).
     Jordan did not back out of the robbery even though Williams said that he
    was prepared to kill if he had to.
     Finally, following the robbery, there was no evidence that Williams was
    surprised that Jordan shot people (including Amber Rogers) at close range
    when they were inside the bank.
    In view of this evidence, we cannot say that the OCCA’s decision was contrary to or
    an unreasonable application of Jackson. Certainly, the OCCA’s reasoning was not
    altogether clear, accurate, or comprehensive. In supporting our conclusion, we rely on
    additional evidence that the OCCA did not. Still, we pay deference to the OCCA’s
    ultimate decision—“after all, what matters is that the evidence support the OCCA’s
    result.” Torres, 
    317 F.3d at 1156
     (emphasis added). We are confident that the evidence
    supporting Williams’s malice-murder conviction was constitutionally sufficient. See
    Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at
    313–14 (stating that conviction can occur only when there is
    “evidence that is sufficient fairly to support a conclusion that every element of the crime
    has been established beyond a reasonable doubt.”).
    C. Ineffective Assistance of Counsel (Guilt Phase)
    - 19 -
    1. The Applicable Standard
    We turn now to Williams’s claim that his lawyer inadequately responded to the state’s
    evidence and witnesses—primarily during the guilt phase. Although Williams had two
    lawyers, he appears to focus this ineffective-assistance claim on lead counsel’s alleged
    failures. We imagine this is because Williams contends that lead counsel was under the
    influence of drugs and alcohol throughout the trial.
    To prevail on a Sixth Amendment claim of ineffective assistance, a defendant must
    show both that (1) counsel “committed serious errors in light of prevailing professional
    norms such that his legal representation fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness,” and (2) there is “a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would have been different.” Grant v.
    Trammell, 
    727 F.3d 1006
    , 1017 (10th Cir. 2013) (internal quotation marks omitted)
    (citing Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 694 (1984)).
    2. The OCCA’s Decision
    In rejecting on direct appeal the ineffective assistance claim based on his counsel’s
    failure-to-object during both trial and sentencing, the OCCA relied in part on its
    resolution of Williams’s related claim that the trial court committed plain error by not
    disallowing certain testimony even absent objection. See Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    230 n.20
    (referring to the discussion of Williams’s proposition that the state introduced highly
    prejudicial evidence during trial). This claim regarding certain trial testimony is not
    before us on habeas. Nonetheless, in evaluating Williams’s ineffective assistance claims,
    - 20 -
    the OCCA considered whether the trial court’s admission of that testimony rose to the
    level of “plain error affecting substantial rights.” 
    Id. at 222
    ; see also 
    Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 12, § 2104
     (“Nothing in this section precludes taking notice of plain errors affecting
    substantial rights although they were not brought to the attention of the court.”). Under
    Oklahoma law, an error affects the defendant’s substantial rights if it “affect[s] the
    outcome of the proceeding.” Hogan v. State, 
    139 P.3d 907
    , 923 (Okla. Crim. App. 2006).
    The OCCA concluded that no proposition of error rose to this level.
    Turning then to Williams’s Strickland claim, the OCCA referred back to its plain-error
    determinations:
    Williams points out that counsel failed to object to the introduction of
    several pieces of testimonial and real evidence, which he has complained
    about in several propositions in this appeal. In discussing these propositions
    of error, we found that either there was no error or that the error did not rise
    to the level of plain error.
    Williams also argues that counsel was ineffective for failing to object to
    several instances of prosecutorial misconduct which are raised as error in
    proposition six. We noted that counsel did object to the most egregious
    instances of misconduct.
    We further find that counsel’s failure to object to the introduction of certain
    items of evidence and the prosecutor’s alleged misconduct did not rise to
    the level of ineffective assistance of counsel under the Strickland standard.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 231
    .
    Williams does not challenge the OCCA’s approach to resolving his Strickland claim.
    Initially, we had our own doubts as to whether the OCCA’s approach was faithful to
    federal law. True enough, when a defendant fails to show that a trial court’s admission of
    evidence was improper for some reason, it likely follows that the lawyer did not perform
    - 21 -
    deficiently by failing to object to its admission.1 See Cannon v. Mullin, 
    383 F.3d 1152
    ,
    1162 (10th Cir. 2004) (finding no deficient performance in defense counsel’s failure to
    object when there was “no meritorious state-law objection available” to counsel).
    However, it does not necessarily follow that there can be no prejudice under
    Strickland when there is no plain error under Oklahoma’s plain error standard. This is
    because, as far as we can tell, Oklahoma’s substantial rights/plain error standard requires
    a defendant to show more than what is necessary to satisfy the prejudice standard under
    Strickland. That is, for a defendant to meet Oklahoma’s plain error standard, he must
    show that the error affected the outcome of the proceeding. Hogan, 
    139 P.3d at 323
    . But
    to satisfy Strickland, a defendant need only show that counsel’s error created a
    reasonable probability that the proceeding’s outcome would be different. Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
     (emphasis added).2
    Of course, if the OCCA made a positive finding that certain evidence did not affect
    the outcome of trial, then this would necessarily include a finding that the evidence did
    not influence the outcome to some lesser degree—or put another way, that the evidence
    did not create a reasonable probability of a different outcome. Here, however, the OCCA
    1
    The opposite, however, is certainly not true. A lawyer’s failure to object to error
    (even plain error) does not amount to ineffective assistance per se. Gordon v. United
    States, 
    518 F.3d 1291
    , 1300 (11th Cir. 2008).
    2
    In this context, both inquiries focus on the harm the contested evidence causes when
    it is stacked up against the other (uncontested) evidence of guilt. It follows that when a
    substantial-rights standard requires no more than Strickland, as is true of the federal
    plain-error standard, the standards are “virtually identical.” Close v. United States, 
    679 F.3d 714
    , 720–21 (8th Cir. 2012) cert. denied, 
    133 S. Ct. 464
    , (2012).
    - 22 -
    simply concluded that there was no plain error. Under that general conclusion, it is
    impossible to say whether Williams lost because he just could not make the requisite
    showing that the error was outcome-determinative or because the OCCA affirmatively
    concluded that the error did not determine the outcome. The distinction is a subtle one,
    but it matters if the OCCA treated its plain-error determinations as dispositive.
    The OCCA did not. Instead, that court made the “further finding” that Williams failed
    to satisfy the requirements of Strickland—not just the requirements of plain error.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 231
    . Because of this, we believe that the OCCA rejected Williams’s
    claims under the appropriate federal standard. Moreover, based on our review of the
    record, we cannot say that the OCCA’s decision was an unreasonable application of that
    standard. See Thornburg v. Mullin, 
    422 F.3d 1113
    , 1138–39 (10th Cir. 2005) (reaching
    the same conclusion when the OCCA found no plain error but also separately concluded
    that there was no prejudice under Strickland).
    None of this is to say that the OCCA’s disposition under Strickland was a model of
    clarity. Again, the OCCA simply concluded that Williams’s claims “did not rise to the
    level of ineffective assistance of counsel under the Strickland standard.” Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 231
    . From this statement, it is unclear which of Strickland’s prongs the OCCA
    believed Williams failed to satisfy. See Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1187 (recognizing that a court
    can decide a Strickland claim under either prong). The OCCA’s reference to its plain-
    error determinations does not help. By finding no error, the OCCA might have concluded
    that counsel did not perform deficiently. Conversely, it might just as reasonably have
    assumed deficient performance and concluded that there was no resulting prejudice,
    - 23 -
    particularly since Williams often did not explain why his lawyer should have objected.
    When the OCCA found error not requiring reversal, it might still have concluded that the
    lawyer’s representation was reasonable. Alternatively, it might have concluded that any
    error (actual or assumed) did not undermine confidence in the outcome. In short, we have
    no way of knowing what the OCCA was thinking.
    This uncertainty does not change our deference. Even “[w]here a state court’s
    decision is unaccompanied by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s burden still must be
    met by showing there was no reasonable basis for the state court to deny relief.”
    Harrington, 131 S. Ct. at 784; see Lafler v. Cooper, 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
    , 1396 (2012) (“The
    state court’s analysis was admittedly not a model of clarity, but federal habeas corpus is a
    guard against extreme malfunctions in the state criminal justice systems, not a license to
    penalize a state court for its opinion-writing technique.”) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). This is true when, as here, the state court does not reveal which element of a
    claim it found insufficient. See Harrington, 131 S. Ct. at 784. Our task is still to evaluate
    the reasonableness of the OCCA’s application of Strickland, considering the
    reasonableness of the theories that “could have supported” the OCCA’s decision. Id. at
    786. This panel must identify what those theories are.
    We believe that the OCCA reasonably could have resolved Williams’s challenges
    under the first prong of Strickland by concluding that Williams’s lawyer did not commit
    any “serious errors in light of prevailing professional norms such that his legal
    representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness.” Wackerly v. Workman,
    
    580 F.3d 1171
    , 1176 (10th Cir. 2009) (internal quotation marks omitted). First, we
    - 24 -
    consider Williams’s argument that lead counsel was constructively absent because of
    counsel’s substance abuse. We then will discuss Williams’s challenges involving his trial
    counsel’s alleged errors. Next, we address the challenges involving Officer Felton’s and
    Dyra Malone’s testimony. In those two cases, we assume deficient performance but
    nonetheless uphold the OCCA’s decision for lack of prejudice under prong two of
    Strickland. Finally, we decline to consider Williams’s challenge to alleged prosecutorial
    misconduct because he inadequately briefed it.
    3. Trial Counsel’s Alleged Substance Abuse
    Williams recognizes that Strickland is the default standard for ineffective-assistance
    claims, but he argues that a different standard should apply in his case. Because of the
    alleged substance abuse, Williams contends that his lawyer “may have been”
    constructively absent from trial, thereby entitling him to relief under United States v.
    Cronic, 
    466 U.S. 648
    , 658–59 (1984). Williams raised this argument in his second
    application for state post-conviction relief after he read a list-serv email that his lawyer
    authored. In that email, the lawyer acknowledged the toll of taking on death-penalty
    cases. He also wrote that he “pop[s] valium like candy just to face the day,” yet he “can
    only lay off the valium and alcohol during trial.” (R. vol. I at 617, 747–49.) Both the
    OCCA and the district court rejected the notion that the substance abuse mattered. They
    also denied Williams’s requests for an evidentiary hearing to explore the subject.
    Just as the OCCA and the district court did, we apply Strickland here. In evaluating
    Williams’s claims, we turn to Cronic, where the Supreme Court identified three extreme
    - 25 -
    situations “so likely to prejudice the accused that the cost of litigating their effect in a
    particular case [under Strickland] is unjustified.” Bell v. Cone, 
    535 U.S. 685
    , 695 (2002)
    (citing Cronic, 
    466 U.S. at
    658–59). See also Hooks v. Workman, 
    606 F.3d 715
    , 724 (10th
    Cir. 2010). Williams’s bases his constructive-absence argument on Cronic’s second
    situation: “a presumption of prejudice is warranted if counsel entirely fails to subject the
    prosecution’s case to meaningful adversarial testing.” Hooks, 
    606 F.3d at 724
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted) (emphasis added). This means that the lawyer’s failures must
    run throughout the entire proceeding, Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1186, and that the lawyer’s
    performance “be so inadequate that, in effect, no assistance of counsel is provided.”
    Cronic, 
    466 U.S. at
    654 n.11.3
    There is simply no way that the isolated failures of Williams’s lawyer (assumed
    below) rise to this level of complete failure. See Bell, 
    535 U.S. at
    696–97 (“When we
    spoke in Cronic of the possibility of presuming prejudice based on an attorney’s failure to
    test the prosecutor’s case, we indicated that the attorney’s failure must be complete.”).
    Both of Williams’s lawyers fought vigorously for acquittal, and later, against the death
    3
    Williams also argues in passing that his case involves “circumstances where
    competent counsel very likely could not render effective assistance.” Appellant’s Br. at
    83. Williams thus attempts to invoke the third Cronic exception, which applies when
    “counsel is called upon to render assistance under circumstances where competent
    counsel very likely could not.” Bell, 
    535 U.S. at 696
    . The example the Supreme Court
    gave in Cronic is Powell v. Alabama, 
    287 U.S. 45
    , 58 (1932), where counsel was only
    “appointed” when two lawyers offered to “assist” on the morning of trial. Williams does
    not point to any analogous institutional problems here. And to the extent he argues that
    his lawyer’s alleged drug abuse should qualify, this novel position is not “clearly
    established law” within the meaning of § 2254(d)(1). See Fairchild v. Workman, 
    579 F.3d 1134
    , 1139 (10th Cir. 2009) (law is not “clearly established” when it requires
    extraction of “general legal principles developed in factually distinct contexts.”).
    - 26 -
    penalty. The lawyers filed numerous pre-trial motions, made compelling arguments
    during first- and second-stage proceedings, asked for sidebars and hearings outside the
    jury’s presence, raised numerous objections to the state’s evidence and arguments, and
    presented a cogent theory of innocence. See Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1186 (collecting cases
    and finding Cronic standard inapplicable based on similar findings).
    Even if Williams could prove that one of his lawyers was really under the influence of
    drugs or alcohol at trial, this would not negate their professional efforts on his behalf. For
    this reason alone, there is no need for an evidentiary hearing to assess Cronic’s
    applicability. See Littlejohn v. Trammell, 
    704 F.3d 817
    , 858 (10th Cir. 2013) (recognizing
    that, even when we owe no deference to the state court’s decision, we can grant a habeas
    petitioner an evidentiary hearing only when his allegations, if true, “would entitle him to
    habeas relief.”) (internal quotation marks omitted). Nor is there a need for a hearing
    under Strickland, where our concern is the objective reasonableness of the lawyer’s
    conduct—not the lawyer’s subjective reasoning. See Harrington v. Richter, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
    , 790 (2011) (“Strickland … calls for an inquiry into the objective reasonableness of
    counsel’s performance, not counsel’s subjective state of mind.”).
    We turn now to Williams’s other arguments of ineffective assistance of counsel. First,
    he argues that his lawyer failed to object to several pieces of evidence and to various
    statements by the prosecutor—we count seven total alleged deficiencies. Second, he
    argues that his lawyer failed to prepare to impeach one of the state’s witnesses. Williams
    raised both of these challenges on direct appeal, although the OCCA resolved only his
    failure-to-object arguments. Even so, we presume “that the state court adjudicated the
    - 27 -
    claim on the merits in the absence of any indication or state-law procedural principles to
    the contrary.” Johnson v. Williams, 
    133 S. Ct. 1088
    , 1094 (2013). Although this
    presumption is rebuttable, see 
    id.
     at 1096–97, Williams offers no argument why the
    presumption should not apply. Thus, the deferential standards of § 2254(d) apply to
    Williams’s failure-to-object and failure-to-prepare claims. Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1163. Yet,
    we note, the outcome would remain the same even under de novo review.
    4. Failure to Object to Evidence of the Stolen Watch
    Williams first complains that his lawyer should have objected to evidence about a
    watch found in the apartment of Jordan’s girlfriend, Tarina Clark. Notably, this is the
    same apartment where Williams, Jordan, and the getaway driver met the night before the
    June 22 robbery. The state first presented evidence of Williams’s DNA on the watch. On
    cross-examination, the prosecutor then asked Williams if he knew the watch was stolen.
    Williams said he did not know and that Jordan gave him the watch. Williams seems to
    argue that his lawyer should have objected to both the DNA evidence and to the question
    about whether he knew that the watch was stolen. Except for relevance, he does not
    identify a basis for the objection, but he instead complains that the evidence was
    irrelevant and portrayed him as a thief.
    Regardless of whether the question elicited relevant evidence, we believe that the
    DNA evidence was highly relevant because it tied Williams to Clark’s apartment and
    corroborated her testimony about his presence there soon before the bank robbery. On
    these grounds, we imagine the trial court would have overruled any objection from
    - 28 -
    Williams. The DNA evidence itself had nothing to do with the watch’s being stolen and,
    as the OCCA pointed out, the presence of Williams’s watch at Clark’s apartment
    corroborated her testimony that Williams was there. See Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 220
    .
    Addressing the question about the watch’s status as stolen, we defer to the OCCA’s
    view that it was improper. See 
    Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 12, § 2404
     (“Evidence of other crimes,
    wrongs, or acts is not admissible to prove the character of a person in order to show
    action in conformity therewith.”) The question elicited testimony that Williams possessed
    stolen things. Its sole purpose was to suggest Williams’s propensity to steal—as he rightly
    claims.
    The OCCA nonetheless could reasonably conclude that trial counsel was not deficient
    for failing to object. As the OCCA recognized, the stolen-watch evidence was hardly
    significant when compared to the evidence of Williams’s other crimes, much of which the
    defense introduced. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 220
    . Williams himself relied on his general
    thievery to explain the wad of cash that police seized from him the day of the robbery (he
    claimed that the money came from his stealing and selling his girlfriend’s TV). In
    addition, to distance himself from the shoeprint found at First Fidelity, he claimed that he
    had stolen several identical pairs of shoes and sold them to others. Other evidence did not
    tend to show innocence. Along the same line, the defense elicited testimony from Dyra
    Malone that Williams stole most of the things he owned. Williams himself admitted that
    - 29 -
    he sold stolen weapons and used drugs. He also admitted that he robbed First Fidelity in
    May.4
    Nor can we say that Williams’s counsel was deficient in introducing this evidence.
    The wad of cash and matching shoeprints needed an explanation. Moreover, by “owning
    up” to conduct he could hardly deny, the defense had a chance to bolster credibility. If
    Williams freely admitted his other crimes, the jury might conclude that he was telling the
    truth when he denied his involvement in the June 22 robbery. See Bullock v. Carver, 
    297 F.3d 1036
    , 1051 (10th Cir. 2002) (“As a general matter, we presume that an attorney
    performed in an objectively reasonable manner because his conduct might be considered
    part of a sound strategy.”) (emphasis original). Had Williams’s lawyer objected to the
    evidence of the stolen watch, he might have drawn unnecessary attention to it or
    otherwise suggested to the jury that Williams had something to hide. A reasonable
    defense lawyer could choose a strategy of not objecting under the circumstances, and “it
    would be well within the bounds of a reasonable judicial determination for the state court
    to conclude” that counsel’s performance was not deficient. Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at 789
    .
    5. Failure to Object to Photographs of Tarina Clark’s Apartment
    The state introduced photographs of the apartment that Jordan shared with his
    girlfriend, Tarina Clark. Except perhaps relevance, Williams simply does not identify a
    4
    In his habeas petition and brief before us, Williams generally complains of all other-
    crimes evidence admitted without objection, but he only identifies the watch. Like the
    district court, we will not speculate what other evidence (if any) Williams might mean to
    include in this Strickland challenge.
    - 30 -
    valid objection to admission of the photographs. He repeats his assertion from direct
    appeal that the photographs prejudiced him. In particular, he complains that the
    photographs invited “impermissible inferences about his lifestyle and the people with
    whom he associated.” (Appellant’s Br. at 69).
    We agree with the OCCA that the photographs had probative value. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 223
    . They helped corroborate Clark’s testimony. For example, one photograph
    showed towels pushed up against the dishwasher; Clark had testified that she was angry
    with Jordan the night before the robbery for allowing the dishwasher to overflow.
    Another photograph showed a pair of Fubu tennis shoes like the ones Williams owned
    (with soles matching the footprint taken from the first robbery of First Fidelity). Clark
    testified that Jordan owned those shoes but rarely wore them because they were too
    small. Accordingly, we think the OCCA reasonably could have concluded that Williams’s
    lawyer’s failure to object to the photographs was not deficient performance.
    6. Failure to Object to Post-Autopsy Photographs of Amber Rogers
    The state admitted without objection two photographs taken at the medical examiner’s
    office showing Amber Rogers’s nude body. Williams argues that any reasonably
    competent lawyer would have objected to the photographs, “which served only to evoke
    the passions and sympathy of the jury.” Appellant’s Br. at 70. Williams also suggests that
    the photographs were not relevant because the manner of death was not disputed and
    because the body bore signs of medical intervention by that point in time. The prosecutor
    referred to the photographs in second-stage closing argument.
    - 31 -
    The OCCA found that the trial court did not err in admitting the photographs, which
    “show[ed] the handiwork of the defendant” and “more closely depict[ed] the nature and
    extent of the gunshot wound on the victim’s body than any other evidence available.”
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 223
    . We similarly conclude that photographs of a victim’s body,
    while gruesome, can be relevant when they depict the extent of injuries and are probative
    of intent to kill. See, e.g., Wilson v. Sirmons, 
    536 F.3d 1064
    , 1115 (10th Cir. 2008).
    Nothing Williams says leads us to believe that the photographs were so obviously
    prejudicial that counsel’s failure to object was deficient. The OCCA could have
    reasonably rejected this claim on the same theory.
    During penalty-phase closing argument, the prosecutor referred to the photographs as
    the “most powerful image.” (Trial Tr. vol. VIII at 1872). But even if a reasonably
    competent lawyer would have objected to this, Williams does not explain why the same
    lawyer would have anticipated the prosecutor’s comment as a reason to object to the
    photographs themselves. See Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at 789
     (“Reliance on the harsh light
    of hindsight . . . is precisely what Strickland and AEDPA seek to prevent.”) (internal
    quotation marks omitted). The photographs are the subject of this challenge—nothing
    else.5
    7. Failure to Object to Testimony of Treating Physicians
    5
    In his brief before us, Williams argues his lawyer should have objected to the
    testimony of the doctor who referenced the photographs as well. But Williams did not
    raise this argument in his habeas petition, so we do not address it here. See United States
    v. Windrix, 
    405 F.3d 1146
    , 1156 (10th Cir. 2005) (declining to address a claim petitioner
    did not raise before district court).
    - 32 -
    Amber Rogers’s treating physician testified at length about the medical treatment he
    gave Rogers before her death. This testimony included details of surgery. The state also
    presented testimony during the penalty phase from Smith’s and Poole’s treating
    physicians. These doctors similarly testified about what they did to treat the gunshot-
    related injuries.
    On direct appeal, Williams contended that the testimony of the treating physicians
    was irrelevant. The OCCA disagreed:
    The State is obligated to show that the death was caused by the criminal
    actions of the defendant. In order to show that, in this case, the State had to
    show that Amber Rogers died despite the heroic efforts of the surgery team.
    There was no plain error here.
    Williams also complains about the second stage testimony of the surgeons
    that treated the other victims who did not die. Again, there was no objection
    to this testimony, thus we review for plain error only. 12 O.S.2001, § 2104.
    Here, one of the aggravating circumstances alleged was that Williams
    created a great risk of death to more than one person. Although, Williams
    claims that evidence that these two victims were shot was sufficient to
    show a great risk of death to more than one person, our cases reveal that
    testimony about the nature and extent of gunshot wounds are relevant for
    this aggravating circumstance.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 224
    .
    In connection with his Strickland claim, Williams argues that certain unspecified
    details of the doctors’ testimony were “unfairly prejudicial and were introduced only to
    inflame the passions of the jury.” Appellant’s Br. at 71. With respect to the penalty-phase
    testimony, he goes even further, claiming that the doctors’ testimony was “entirely
    irrelevant.” 
    Id.
     Given the OCCA’s observations to the contrary, we cannot agree. In our
    view, it was reasonable to conclude that the testimony was relevant because it supported
    - 33 -
    the state’s theory that Williams’s crime showed “a great risk of death to more than one
    person.” Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 224
    . We think it follows that the OCCA could have
    reasonably concluded that counsel’s failure to object on relevance grounds was not
    deficient performance.
    8. Failure to Object to Detective Felton’s Testimony
    The investigating police officer, Detective Felton, testified that shortly after
    Williams’s arrest, he saw abrasions and lacerations on Williams’s shin. When asked if he
    found anything significant about the injuries, Felton testified: “Meeting with the other
    detectives it was determined that one of the suspects had fled the bank by jumping off the
    second floor balcony. These looked just like injuries that one might receive by, you know,
    jumping and falling.” (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1181).
    Williams contends that this testimony was plainly inadmissible because it was not
    based on Felton’s perceptions as a lay witness. Presumably, he thinks that his counsel
    should have objected for this reason.
    The OCCA concluded that Felton’s testimony was improper because it was based on
    specialized knowledge. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 225
    . We accept this and assume that a
    reasonably competent lawyer would have objected. Still, we think the OCCA could have
    reasonably concluded that there was no reasonable probability of acquittal but for
    counsel’s unprofessional errors. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    While Felton’s testimony certainly linked Williams to the crime, and while testimony
    from a police officer can be particularly persuasive to juries, we believe that Felton’s
    - 34 -
    opinion may have bordered on pure speculation. The OCCA concluded similarly.
    Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 225
     (concluding that the opinion, without specialized knowledge,
    would be “pure speculation”). The photographs Felton referenced showed generic injuries
    that any number of accidents could have caused. The jury might even have believed
    Williams that he did not know what caused the injuries. Further, Felton did not flatly
    declare that Williams had jumped off the balcony; he merely said that Williams’s injuries
    were consistent with those someone might sustain by “jumping and falling.” Given the
    isolated and limited nature of the offending testimony and the overwhelming evidence
    that Williams robbed the bank, we cannot begin to say that, absent this testimony,
    Williams would have had a reasonable probability of acquittal. The OCCA’s decision
    under Strickland was objectively reasonable.
    9. Failure to Object to Dyra Malone’s Testimony
    Williams next complains about a portion of the redirect testimony of his girlfriend,
    Dyra Malone. Malone testified on direct examination about her interactions with
    Williams on the day of the robbery. She said that Williams came to her apartment around
    11:00 a.m. with “wads” of cash and said that he had “jacked a white man.” (Trial Tr. vol.
    V at 1019, 1023). She did not say that Williams had confessed to anything more. On
    cross-examination, Malone admitted that she had spoken with prosecutors at least a
    dozen times, and first spoken with defense counsel on the day she testified. She further
    testified that she did not ask Williams any questions after he displayed wads of cash after
    supposedly having “jacked a white guy.” (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1063). Malone briefly
    - 35 -
    described her own arrest and how police had questioned her at length, but she did not say
    what the police had asked her or what she had told them.
    On redirect examination, however, the prosecutor began with this:
    Prosecutor: Ma’am, you had been asked about the statements to police.
    What did you tell police when they talked to you?
    Malone: Um –
    Prosecutor: Let me rephrase the question. . . . Did you tell police that
    Jeremy had told you something about a bank, his cousin Tony, and a lady,
    and that he said his cousin started shooting? Did you tell police that Jeremy
    had told you that?
    Malone: Yes.
    Prosecutor: And that was in the first statement to police; is that correct?
    Malone: Yes.
    Prosecutor: And at the preliminary hearing you said that you didn’t say that,
    is that correct, or that he didn’t tell you that?
    Malone: He didn’t tell me that.
    (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1069). Malone further explained this earlier statement by saying that
    police had threatened her that if she “didn’t start talking they were going to put [her] in
    jail.” (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1069). She then said that she had based her early statement on
    what the police “told [her] about what happened.” (Trial Tr. vol. V at 1069).
    Williams contends that his lawyer should have objected to this questioning because
    “neither the prosecution nor defense [had] impeached Dyra Malone with any prior
    inconsistent statements.” Appellant’s Br. at 68. We are unsure what Williams means by
    this. Perhaps he is saying that the question was improper because the prosecutor had no
    - 36 -
    inconsistent statement from Malone’s earlier testimony to impeach. Before the OCCA,
    Williams argued that the prosecutor’s question was inadmissible because it exceeded the
    scope of cross-examination and because there was no limiting instruction. See Williams,
    
    188 P.3d at 222
    .
    While we may not have divined the objection that Williams wanted his lawyer to
    make, we think we understand his ultimate concern: the only reason the state questioned
    Malone about her first statement to the police was to introduce Williams’s admitting to
    the crime.
    Even assuming that an effective lawyer would have objected, we would still conclude
    that the OCCA’s decision was reasonable under Strickland. Williams simply cannot show
    a reasonable probability of acquittal had his lawyer objected and the evidence stayed out.6
    In reality, Malone’s testimony on redirect likely weighed in Williams’s favor. After
    Malone testified about her initial statement to the police, she declared it spoon-fed and
    coerced. All the worse for the state, she then emphasized that Williams had never
    confessed to her having committed the bank robbery. Of course, none of this changes the
    fact that Williams did confess to another witness, Beverly Jordan. Moreover, Malone was
    consistent in maintaining that Williams told her he had “jacked a white man.” (Trial. Tr.
    vol. V at 1023). We are confident that the jury’s verdict would have been the same
    6
    For the first time on appeal, Williams argues that Malone’s testimony on redirect
    prejudiced him because it somehow enabled the prosecution to introduce evidence of the
    May robbery. Williams did not argue this to the district court, so we do not consider it
    here. See Windrix, 
    405 F.3d at 1156
    . Regardless, Malone’s redirect testimony did not
    concern the May robbery of First Fidelity.
    - 37 -
    without Malone’s redirect testimony. The OCCA reasonably could have rejected this
    claim on a lack of prejudice.
    10. Failure to Impeach Officer Kennedy
    As stated above, the OCCA did not purport to resolve this failure-to-impeach claim.
    Even so, because Williams presented this claim to the OCCA, we presume that the OCCA
    adjudicated it on the merits, particularly in the absence of any argument from Williams to
    the contrary. Johnson, 
    133 S. Ct. at 1094
    . Thus, we apply § 2254(d)’s deferential standard
    of review to Williams’s failure-to-object and failure-to-prepare claims. Hooks, 689 F.3d at
    1163. In doing so, we see that the district court found that this alleged failure simply “did
    not rise to the level of a constitutional violation.” Williams v. Workman, 
    2012 WL 5197674
    , at *18 n.10 (N.D. Okla. Oct. 19, 2012) (unpublished). We agree. In our view,
    the OCCA could have reasonably concluded that the lawyer’s performance was not
    deficient. We would reach the same result even under de novo review.
    About an hour after the bank robbery, Police Officer Kennedy stopped Williams for a
    moving violation. In connection with this stop, Kennedy did a pat-down search and
    discovered a wad of cash. At trial, he testified that he counted this money and that it
    amounted to approximately $1100 (the amount a previous witness identified as
    Williams’s claimed share of the robbery proceeds). At the suppression hearing, however,
    Kennedy had testified that he had not counted the money for an exact amount. Instead, he
    estimated that it was over $1000 based on his fingering through the cash.
    - 38 -
    Williams argues that his lawyer should have properly prepared to cross-examine
    Kennedy by having the suppression-hearing transcript on hand. Without the transcript,
    Williams claims that his lawyer could not effectively impeach Kennedy on cross-
    examination; he could only ask Kennedy if he remembered testifying that he had not
    counted the money. When Kennedy responded, “I don’t remember—I did count the
    money,” that was the end of it. (Trial Tr. vol. IV at 983).
    When reviewing ineffective-assistance claims, we must make every effort “to
    eliminate the distorting effects of hindsight.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    . Here, we think
    this means considering whether Williams’s lawyer had any reason to anticipate that
    Kennedy would change his testimony, making resort to the suppression-hearing transcript
    necessary. Williams gives us no reason to think this change in testimony was anything
    other than a “remote possibilit[y].” Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at 779
    .
    What’s more, we must consider whether a reasonable lawyer would even have
    perceived any inconsistency in Kennedy’s testimony. We cannot conclude that a
    reasonable lawyer would have immediately been able to perceive the inconsistency. True,
    Kennedy testified at the suppression hearing that he had not counted the money, but he
    also testified that he had estimated the amount to be over $1000 based on having fingered
    through the cash. At trial, Kennedy’s testimony was not much different: there he
    estimated the amount to be approximately $1100 based on his having counted the money.
    Despite this minor inconsistency, Williams’s lawyer still managed to detect that
    Kennedy’s story had changed, acquire the suppression-hearing transcript, and finally
    persuade the trial court to admonish the jury “to disregard [Kennedy’s] statement that he
    - 39 -
    counted money” and that “it was a thousand dollars.” (Trial Tr. vol. VII at 1531–32). We
    can hardly say that this conduct falls below the high standard of objectively unreasonable
    performance under Strickland.
    11. Failure to Object to Prosecutorial Misconduct
    Williams points to “five general categories of prosecutorial misconduct to which [his
    lawyer] failed to object.” (Appellant’s Br. at 72). These include: (i) the prosecutor’s
    expression of his personal opinion in first-stage closing argument that Williams was
    guilty; (ii) “numerous instances” of arguing facts not in evidence; (iii) unnecessary
    ridicule of Mr. Williams; (iv) “numerous instances” of “evoking improper sympathy for
    the victim;” and (v) expressions of the prosecutor’s personal opinion from the second-
    stage closing argument that Williams deserved the death penalty. (Id. at 72–73). Williams
    clarifies that his challenge extends only to “prosecutorial misconduct to which [his
    lawyer] made no objection.” (Id. at 73). He acknowledges that his lawyer did in fact
    object to at least some of the alleged misconduct. What Williams says is that the
    “numerous instances of prosecutorial misconduct in both phases of trial” were
    “constitutionally deficient [failures] in contravention of Strickland.” (Appellant’s Br. at
    78).
    Once again, Williams does not explain what objections his lawyer should have made.
    We have overlooked this problem in connection with his other challenges, but even if we
    did so here, we would face the added difficulty of trying to determine what alleged
    misconduct forms the basis of his complaint. We can hardly be sure what Williams means
    - 40 -
    when he describes these five general “categories.” Apart from mentioning first- and
    second-stage closing arguments (both of which were lengthy), he does not direct us with
    any specificity to where we might locate the prosecutor’s allegedly improper statements
    in the transcript. Indeed, he does not include a single quote from the transcript or a single
    cite to the record in this section of his brief or habeas petition.
    Williams supplies only one supporting citation. He points to the OCCA’s rejection of
    his stand-alone challenge to the alleged prosecutorial misconduct on direct appeal.
    (Appellant’s Br. at 73); Williams, 
    188 P.3d at 231
    . The OCCA dedicated twenty
    paragraphs of its opinion to this challenge. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    228–230. Sometimes the
    OCCA specified whether trial counsel objected below; other times it did not. Sometimes
    it quoted the alleged misconduct, other times it paraphrased Williams’s challenge.
    Sometimes it addressed Williams’s arguments by referring to other sections of its
    opinion. In no case did the OCCA conclude that the trial court had committed plain error.
    We have no way of knowing what previously alleged misconduct Williams now intends
    to incorporate in his Strickland challenge.
    For these reasons, we lack the information to address this challenge in any meaningful
    fashion. Even if we were inclined to sift through the OCCA’s decision and the trial
    transcript, we feel ill-prepared to guess which comments might form the basis for this
    Strickland challenge and why.7 For these reasons, we must decline to address Williams’s
    7
    The district court did not engage in this guesswork either. It simply concluded in
    general terms that Williams had not demonstrated constitutionally ineffective assistance.
    Williams, 
    2012 WL 5197674
    , at *16, *19.
    - 41 -
    argument. In doing so, we note that “[e]ven a capital defendant can waive an argument by
    inadequately briefing an issue.” Grant, 727 F.3d at 1025; Bronson v. Swensen, 
    500 F.3d 1099
    , 1104 (10th Cir. 2007) (“[W]e routinely have declined to consider arguments that
    are not raised, or are inadequately presented, in an appellant’s opening brief.”).
    12. Conclusion
    In sum, Williams has failed to show that he is entitled to relief with respect to any of
    the challenges above. In only two instances have we assumed that Williams’s legal
    representation was anything less than objectively reasonable. Again, we only assumed
    deficient performance in trial counsel’s failure to object to certain testimony of Dyra
    Malone and Officer Felton. In those instances, we have already said that the OCCA
    reasonably could have concluded that Williams failed to make the requisite showing of
    prejudice. We now go a step further and say that those two modest errors are insufficient
    to warrant relief under Strickland, even considering their combined prejudicial effect. See
    Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1187–88 (recognizing that resolving each allegation of ineffective
    assistance on prejudice grounds is not “sufficient to dispose of the claim because a further
    analysis of ‘cumulative prejudice’” is necessary); Cargle v. Mullin, 
    317 F.3d 1196
    , 1212
    (10th Cir. 2003) (“[A] decision to grant relief on ineffective assistance grounds is a
    function of the prejudice flowing from all of counsel's deficient performance....”)
    (emphasis added).
    D. Ineffective Assistance of Counsel (Penalty Phase)
    - 42 -
    Williams also argues that his lawyers should have presented more and better
    mitigating evidence during the penalty phase of trial. During this phase, his lawyers
    called social historian and developmental specialist, Dr. Wanda Draper, to testify about
    Williams’s background and social/cognitive development. Williams’s mother, Joni
    Williams, also testified. She offered similar background testimony and asked the jury to
    spare her son’s life. Still, in Williams’s view, his lawyers “wholly failed to satisfy their
    constitutionally required duty to thoroughly investigate and present mitigating evidence.”
    (Appellant’s Br. at 41–43). He claims that his lawyers should have engaged the services
    of a dedicated “mitigation specialist” and that they should have called more fact
    witnesses (including family members, a childhood pastor, teachers, and friends). He also
    claims that his lawyers were “effectively absent” once the trial court appointed Dr.
    Draper. (Appellant’s Br. at 42). In Williams’s view, trial counsel should have better
    prepared and assisted Dr. Draper. At the very least, Williams believes he is entitled to
    develop these arguments at an evidentiary hearing, which the OCCA and the district court
    both denied.
    Strickland governs penalty-phase claims of ineffective assistance. See Wiggins v.
    Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 521 (2003).8 Again, to prevail, Williams must show both that (1)
    counsel “committed serious errors in light of prevailing professional norms such that his
    legal representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness,” and (2) there is
    8
    Williams does not argue that Cronic is the applicable standard here, nor does he
    raise lead counsel’s alleged substance abuse.
    - 43 -
    “a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” Grant, 727 F.3d at 1017 (citing Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    ) (internal quotation marks omitted). “A reasonable probability is a probability
    sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome.” See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    The first issue we encounter in this claim is whether Williams properly exhausted it in
    state court. We cannot grant habeas relief “unless it appears that the applicant has
    exhausted the remedies available in the courts of the State.” Gray v. Netherland, 
    518 U.S. 152
    , 161 (1996); 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b). Before the federal district court, the state argued
    that Williams’s habeas claim differed from the one he presented to the OCCA.
    (Appellee’s Br. at 14–16.) For instance, in his state post-conviction application, Williams
    named nine witnesses his lawyers either failed to contact or call as witnesses. The state
    pointed out, however, that Williams named a dozen different witnesses in his federal
    habeas petition.9 Additionally, according to the state, Williams argued for the first time in
    federal court that his lawyers failed to devote adequate time to Dr. Draper. He also
    presented a new affidavit from Dr. Draper that he never presented to the OCCA. In the
    state’s view, these differences changed the substance of Williams’s claim. The district
    court agreed and found the claim partially unexhausted—at least “[i]nsofar as Williams’s
    [ineffective-assistance claim] complains of counsels’ dealing with Dr. Draper.” Williams,
    
    2012 WL 5197674
    , at *11–12.
    9
    By our count, Williams actually supplemented his habeas petition with thirteen new
    witnesses.
    - 44 -
    We agree with the district court’s conclusion. A party exhausts a claim in state court
    when it has been “fairly presented.” Picard v. Conner, 
    404 U.S. 270
    , 275 (1971). “Fair
    presentation,” in turn, requires that the petitioner raise in state court the “substance” of
    his federal claims. 
    Id. at 278
    . This includes not only the constitutional guarantee at issue,
    but also the underlying facts that entitle a petitioner to relief. Gray, 
    518 U.S. at 163
    ; see
    Fairchild v. Workman, 
    579 F.3d 1134
    , 1149 (10th Cir. 2009) (“A claim is more than a
    mere theory on which a court could grant relief; a claim must have a factual basis, and an
    adjudication of that claim requires an evaluation of that factual basis.”) (citation omitted).
    Here, Williams did not present to the OCCA the factual basis for his “Draper claim.”
    Williams did not allege in his state post-conviction application that his lawyers failed to
    prepare or assist Dr. Draper, or that her testimony might have improved with more
    consultation. Instead, he argued that his lawyers should have called more witnesses and
    hired a mitigation specialist—i.e., someone else to investigate Williams’s background and
    presumably testify during the penalty phase.10 Williams argued that “[h]ad trial counsel
    fully investigated [his] family and social history, they would have discovered numerous
    sources of information from individuals that have known [him] for his entire life.” (See
    First Application for State Post-Conviction Relief, at 19). To that end, Williams supplied
    the OCCA with affidavits from his relatives (mostly uncles) stating what they would have
    testified to had they been called as witnesses. Williams’s focus in his state post-
    10
    In his state post-conviction relief application, Williams also argued that his lawyers
    received inadequate compensation and that trial counsel was ineffective for failing to
    rehabilitate jurors who expressed doubts about imposing the death penalty, but he does
    not renew those claims in his federal habeas petition.
    - 45 -
    conviction relief application was thus on his lawyers’ failure to discover and call
    additional witnesses, not on any failure to adequately support a witness who did testify.
    In federal court, however, we see different allegations, most of which Williams
    supports by referring to Dr. Draper’s newly submitted affidavit. See R. vol. I at 116
    (“Counsel never conducted, or facilitated the conduct of, any further follow-up or
    individual meetings with any of these persons.”); id. at 118 (“No preparation occurred for
    Dr. Draper’s testimony with the trial team.”); id. at 119 (“Dr. Draper received no
    communication from . . . any member of the Williams trial team about meeting before her
    testimony or to prepare for the presentation of that evidence.”); id. at 120 (“[Williams’s
    lawyers] wholly failed to prepare Dr. Draper for her trial testimony.”); id. at 123 (“Had
    counsel ensured that an adequate investigation of [Developmental Disorganized
    Detachment Disorder] and adequate preparation for Dr. Draper’s testimony had taken
    place, Dr. Draper would have given much more extensive testimony on this condition”
    and “Because of counsel’s failure to facilitate additional investigation or prepare Dr.
    Draper for trial testimony, no member of Mr. Williams’s defense team investigated the
    potential mental-health issues which may have [underlay] Mr. Williams’s suicide
    attempt.”); id. at 124 (“[A]s a consequence of counsel’s failure to . . . adequately prepare
    Dr. Draper to testify concerning the issue of Mr. Williams’s future dangerousness, the
    prosecution effectively cross examined Dr. Draper” and “As a consequence of counsel’s
    failure in assisting Dr. Draper . . . the demonstrative aid typically used by Dr. Draper—
    the ‘life path’—was wholly inadequate.”).
    - 46 -
    Williams runs into another problem with Dr. Draper’s new affidavit. Even if Williams
    had exhausted these claims in state court, § 2254 would restrict our (and the district
    court’s) discretion to consider that affidavit. “[Section] 2254(e)(2) still restricts the
    discretion of federal habeas courts to consider new evidence when deciding claims that
    were not adjudicated on the merits in state court.” Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1388
    ,
    1401 (2011). This is because the state trial on the merits should be the “main event,”
    rather than a “tryout on the road” for what will later be the determinative federal habeas
    proceeding. Wainwright v. Sykes, 
    433 U.S. 72
    , 90 (1977).
    In sum, Williams alleges that his lawyers failed to assist Dr. Draper in a number of
    ways, and that her expert mitigation testimony therefore suffered. Even though these
    allegations would typically come within Strickland’s ambit, they raise an entirely new
    complaint of deficient performance and resulting prejudice because Williams raises them
    now for the first time. See Gray, 
    518 U.S. at 163
     (“[I]t is not enough to make a general
    appeal to a [broad] constitutional guarantee . . . to present the ‘substance’ of such a claim
    to a state court.”); Hawkins v. Mullin, 
    291 F.3d 658
    , 669 (10th Cir. 2002) (“The fact that
    [the petitioner] asserted some ineffective-assistance claims in state court … will not
    suffice to exhaust this significantly different federal habeas claim.”).
    Like the district court, our exhaustion determination is limited to the “Draper claim”
    alone. Even though Williams names many new witnesses in his habeas petition, he does
    not contend that these witnesses would have said anything more than the relatives he
    named in his first post-conviction application. Accordingly, the “ultimate question”
    before the OCCA with respect to this claim was the same as the one before us—is there a
    - 47 -
    reasonable probability of a different outcome but for counsels’ alleged failure to call
    additional witnesses? See Picard, 
    404 U.S. at
    277–78 (“there are instances in which ‘the
    ultimate question for disposition’ . . . will be the same despite variations in the legal
    theory or factual allegations urged in its support.”) (internal citation omitted).
    In seeking to persuade us that he exhausted his “Draper claim,” Williams argues that
    his presentation of new evidence (Dr. Draper’s affidavit) did not change the substance of
    his claim—it merely supplemented it. But if the Draper claim is one he already presented
    to the OCCA—one that the OCCA presumably resolved on the merits—then the claim in
    this court must be based on the record Williams presented to the OCCA. See Cullen, 
    131 S. Ct. at 1398
     (stating that “review under § 2254(d)(1) is limited to the record that was
    before the state court that adjudicated the claim on the merits”). As a result, we cannot
    consider the Draper affidavit, and his Draper claim necessarily fails.
    Next, we consider what to do with this partially unexhausted claim. The district court
    concluded that remand was not appropriate because “Oklahoma would bar consideration
    of this precise claim on an independent and adequate state law procedural ground if
    Williams presented it in a third post-conviction application.” Williams, 
    2012 WL 5197674
    , at *12. After all, were Williams to return to state court at this point, he would
    raise this failure-to-prepare claim in what would now be a third application for post-
    conviction relief. Oklahoma requires a post-conviction relief applicant to raise all
    grounds for relief which he actually knows or should have known through the exercise of
    due diligence in his original application for relief. See Cummings v. Sirmons, 
    506 F.3d 1211
    , 1222–23 (10th Cir. 2007) (summarizing Oklahoma’s rule for bringing claims in
    - 48 -
    post-conviction relief applications); see also Okla. Stat. tit. 22 §§ 1086, 1089(D)(2), (8)–
    (9).
    There would be little question that Oklahoma’s rule against successive petitions
    would bar us from considering Williams’s habeas claim if the OCCA had applied the rule
    itself. The doctrine of procedural default prevents a federal court from reviewing “the
    merits of a claim—including constitutional claims—that a state court declined to hear
    because the prisoner failed to abide by a state procedural rule.” Martinez v. Ryan, 
    132 S. Ct. 1309
    , 1316 (2012). Habeas review is improper under those circumstances because the
    state procedural rule, so long as it is “firmly established and consistently followed,” is a
    “nonfederal ground adequate to support the judgment.” 
    Id.
    We have previously held that the OCCA’s ban on successive post-conviction
    applications is just such a firmly established and consistently followed rule. See Thacker
    v. Workman, 
    678 F.3d 820
    , 835–36 (10th Cir. 2012). What’s more, Williams does not
    have a good excuse for not including the failure-to-prepare arguments in his first post-
    conviction application. Martinez, 
    132 S. Ct. at 1316
     (recognizing that “[a] prisoner may
    obtain federal review of a defaulted claim by showing cause for the default and prejudice
    from a violation of federal law.”). While Williams attempts to blame his lawyers, he only
    argues that his appellate lawyer was ineffective for failing to raise his unexhausted claim
    on direct appeal. To be sure, this might excuse Williams’s noncompliance with
    Oklahoma’s separate rule requiring presentment of claims on direct appeal. See Berget v.
    State, 
    907 P.2d 1078
    , 1081 (Okla. Crim. App. 1995) (stating that “issues which were not
    raised on direct appeal, but could have been, are waived,” but considering “claims which,
    - 49 -
    for whatever reason, could not have been raised on direct appeal.”). But this rule is not at
    issue here; rather, we are only concerned with the rule against successive post-conviction
    applications. See Okla. Stat. tit. 22 § 1086. Williams’s argument does nothing to show
    why we should excuse his noncompliance with the successive applications rule.
    Of course, the OCCA did not bar Williams’s unexhausted failure-to-prepare claim
    because Williams never presented it. The procedural default described above is thus
    distinguishable from the “anticipatory procedural default” at issue here—where a
    petitioner fails to exhaust a claim and we, as a federal court, nonetheless conclude that
    the claim would be procedurally defaulted on remand. See Thacker, 
    678 F.3d at
    839–41.
    According to the Supreme Court, a habeas petition is procedurally defaulted if the
    petitioner “failed to exhaust state remedies and the court to which the petitioner would be
    required to present his claims in order to meet the exhaustion requirement would now
    find the claims procedurally barred.” Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 735 n.1
    (1991); Watson v. State of N.M., 
    45 F.3d 385
    , 386 n.1 (10th Cir. 1995). This question is
    arguably more complicated than merely deferring to the state’s actual invocation of a
    procedural bar because we must predict what the state court would do. This case asks us
    to consider how certain we must be in our prediction.
    In Williams’s view, there can be no room for uncertainty. He believes uncertainty
    exists in his case because Oklahoma sometimes forgives noncompliance with the bar on
    successive post-conviction applications. He points us to Valdez v. State, where the
    Oklahoma Court of Criminal Appeals not only considered, but also granted, a second
    application for post-conviction relief. 
    46 P.3d 703
    , 711 (Okla. Crim. App. 2002). The
    - 50 -
    OCCA made clear that it retains the power to grant a successive post-conviction
    application “when an error complained of has resulted in a miscarriage of justice, or
    constitutes a substantial violation of a constitutional or statutory right.” 
    Id. at 710
    .
    Williams cites several other cases since Valdez in which the OCCA has similarly declined
    to apply this procedural bar. Given this case law, Williams suggests that we cannot
    predict whether the OCCA would apply a procedural bar to his claim. But inconsistently,
    Williams makes a prediction of his own: the OCCA will not apply a procedural bar to his
    unexhausted claim because it is “particularly strong,” especially when “supplemented by
    the facts in Dr. Draper’s affidavit.” (Appellant’s Reply Br. at 13).
    We cannot agree with Williams that his ineffective-assistance claim is at all like those
    claims the Oklahoma courts have considered in other noncomplying successive petitions.
    Williams raises a run-of-the-mill Strickland claim that is far different from the “special
    case” the OCCA recognized in Valdez. See 
    46 P.3d at
    711 n.25. Valdez was special
    because the lawyers there knew that their client was a citizen of Mexico and nonetheless
    failed to comply with the Vienna Convention when they failed to contact the Mexican
    Consulate, thereby depriving the Consulate the ability to intervene and present its
    discovery that the defendant suffered from organic brain damage. 
    Id. at 706
    , 709–10.
    The other Oklahoma cases Williams cites involve equally compelling circumstances
    not present here. See, e.g., Malicoat v. State, 
    137 P.3d 1234
    , 1235 (Okla. Crim. App.
    2006) (declining to apply a procedural bar to consider whether Oklahoma’s lethal
    injection protocol violated the Eighth Amendment’s prohibition against cruel and unusual
    punishment).    As we have said before, albeit in the context of the OCCA’s own
    - 51 -
    invocation of the successive-petition ban, the Valdez exception only applies in cases
    involving an “exceptional circumstance,” Black v. Workman, 
    682 F.3d 880
    , 917 (10th Cir.
    2012), and it is “insufficient to overcome Oklahoma’s regular and consistent application
    of its procedural-bar rule in the vast majority of cases,” Thacker, 
    678 F.3d at
    835–36
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Considering Williams’s claim, the chances that the OCCA might excuse his
    noncompliance with the ban on successive-petitions are slim to none. True, we are not the
    state court and we can never predict with 100% accuracy how another court will resolve
    an unexhausted claim under its own procedural rules. But we do not believe this level of
    certainty is what the Supreme Court requires. Instead, we think it is enough if, looking to
    the state’s treatment of its procedural bar, the likelihood of default in the petitioner’s case
    is beyond debate or dispute. See Cummings, 
    506 F.3d at 1223
    .
    Indeed, this was enough in Cummings, where a habeas petitioner also failed to
    exhaust a Strickland claim involving his lawyer’s failure to seek DNA testing of “critical
    evidence.” 
    Id. at 1222
    . Despite the petitioner’s claim that he should not be subject to the
    same procedural bar because he was innocent (presumably, an argument he would have
    made on remand in state court), we “readily concluded” that his claim was subject to an
    anticipatory procedural bar. 
    Id. at 1223
    . It was “beyond dispute” that, “were [the
    petitioner] to attempt to now present the claim to the Oklahoma state courts in a second
    application for post-conviction relief, it would be deemed procedurally barred.” 
    Id. at 1223
    . Nothing Williams says leads us to believe that the likelihood of a procedural bar in
    his case is any less certain.
    - 52 -
    Williams raises two other arguments in resisting an anticipatory procedural bar for his
    failure-to-prepare claim. First, as proof of the OCCA’s unpredictability and the need for
    remand, he points to the fact that in this very case the OCCA excused a procedural bar to
    consider other ineffective-assistance claims that he did not raise on direct appeal. See
    Williams, No. PCD 2006–1012, at *3–8. Williams raised these claims in his state post-
    conviction relief application contrary to Oklahoma’s general rule requiring that
    defendants present all claims on direct appeal. See 
    Okla. Stat. tit. 22, § 1089
    (C). But just
    because the OCCA declined to apply one procedural rule—the presentment of claims on
    direct appeal—in one context does not mean that it would decline to apply an entirely
    different procedural rule—requiring a petitioner to raise all known (or should have
    known) claims in a single, initial application for post-conviction relief—in another.11
    Second, Williams argues that the procedural rule at issue in his case is not an adequate
    and independent state ground to bar his failure-to-prepare claim. Specifically, Williams
    says that the general prohibition against successive post-conviction applications
    intertwines with federal law, which would not preclude habeas review. He seems to say
    that, under the Valdez exception, a state court is required to consider the merits of a
    11
    This is all the more true here given our prior announcement that we will only
    consider the OCCA’s rule requiring presentment of ineffective-assistance claims on
    direct appeal as an adequate ground for procedural default under certain circumstances.
    See English v. Cody, 
    146 F.3d 1257
    , 1259 (10th Cir. 1998). What’s more, Williams
    argued that his appellate lawyer was ineffective in failing to raise this claim on direct
    appeal, thereby giving the OCCA another reason to reach the merits. Neither of these
    concerns would weigh in favor of excusing Williams’s entirely unrelated failure to raise
    his Draper-centric arguments in his first (or second) application for post-conviction relief.
    - 53 -
    constitutional claim—thereby raising questions of federal law and undermining the very
    reason we defer to state procedural dismissals. But we have already rejected this
    argument. See Banks v. Workman, 
    692 F.3d 1133
    , 1145 (10th Cir. 2012) (concluding that
    Oklahoma’s procedural bar is independent of federal law, notwithstanding the OCCA’s
    power to excuse default in “extreme cases”). And to whatever extent the Valdez exception
    raises questions of federal law, we have considered those federal questions in determining
    for ourselves that Valdez does not extend to Williams’s ineffective-assistance claim.
    This brings us to the merits. The OCCA rejected the exhausted portion of Williams’s
    ineffective-assistance claim under Strickland. In its view, the mitigation-specialist claim
    failed because Williams had not shown what additional evidence the mitigation specialist
    would have unearthed. Williams, No. PCD 2006–1012, at *5. The OCCA then resolved
    Williams’s claim that his lawyers should have called other witnesses. It concluded that
    the lawyers decided not to use these witnesses (aunt, uncle and grandfather) after a
    reasonable investigation into mitigation evidence. 
    Id. at *8
    . The OCCA further concluded
    that this decision “amounted to reasonable trial strategy, thus counsel was not ineffective
    for failing to utilize these relatives as mitigation witnesses.” 
    Id.
    As for the claim that the lawyers should have hired a mitigation specialist, we agree
    with the OCCA that Williams has failed to identify what other testimony (if any) a
    mitigation expert would have discovered. We also fail to understand why Dr. Draper did
    not adequately fulfill that role. Accordingly, we cannot say—as we must to reverse—that
    the OCCA’s decision was contrary to or an unreasonable application of federal law, or
    - 54 -
    that it resulted in an unreasonable determination of the facts presented in the state courts.
    See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    As for the claim involving uncalled witnesses, like the district court, we choose to
    resolve this claim under the prejudice-prong of Strickland. See Rompilla v. Beard, 
    545 U.S. 374
    , 390 (2005) (“Because the state courts found the representation adequate, they
    never reached the issue of prejudice … and so we examine this element of the Strickland
    claim de novo.”) In doing so, we assume that Williams can satisfy Strickland’s first prong
    (deficient performance) because his trial lawyers did not interview Williams’s family and
    friends. See Cole v. Trammell, 
    755 F.3d 1142
    , 1161 (10th Cir. 2014) (assuming the same
    “because family and social history is one of the crucial areas of investigation emphasized
    in the ABA Guidelines”) (internal quotation marks omitted). Still, our assumption does
    not bring Williams the relief he desires; in the end, he cannot show that his lawyers’
    failures resulted in prejudice under Strickland.
    To show prejudice, Williams must show that his lawyers’ failures mattered—“namely,
    that there is ‘a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different.’” Grant, 727 F.3d at 1018 (citing
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    ). When a petitioner alleges ineffective assistance of counsel
    stemming from a failure to investigate mitigating evidence at a capital-sentencing
    proceeding, “we evaluate the totality of the evidence—both that adduced at trial, and the
    evidence adduced in habeas proceedings.” Smith v. Mullin, 
    379 F.3d 919
    , 942 (10th Cir.
    2004) (quoting Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 536
    ). This includes weighing “the evidence in
    aggravation against the totality of available mitigating evidence.” Hooks, 689 F.3d at
    - 55 -
    1202. “In a system like Oklahoma’s, where only a unanimous jury may impose the death
    penalty, the question is whether it’s ‘reasonably probabl[e] that at least one juror would
    have struck a different balance.’” Grant, 727 F.3d at 1018–19 (quoting Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 537
    ). Here, the OCCA did not reach this prejudice question, but we are sure that there
    was no substantial probability, let alone a conceivable one, that one juror (or more) would
    have voted against the death penalty had counsel not (assumed to have) failed to call
    other witnesses. See Harrington, 
    131 S. Ct. at 792
     (defining reasonable probability as the
    likelihood of a different result being “substantial, not just conceivable”).12
    We reach this conclusion based on what Williams tells us the uncalled witnesses
    would have said. In the prejudice section of his brief, Williams claims that the uncalled
    witnesses would have testified about his “criminogenic upbringing,” that he “lack[ed] …
    any parent figure for the majority of his life,” and “that he could potentially thrive and
    rehabilitate himself in prison.” (Appellant’s Br. at 46). He gives no specifics about what
    each witness might have said or why this might have changed the outcome at sentencing.
    Admittedly, in his habeas petition, Williams says the witnesses would have testified to
    slightly more—that he was born premature, that he was on a heart monitor during
    infancy, that the Department of Human Services came to check on him as a baby, that he
    got lost in his grandmother’s home, that he didn’t have a room of his own, that he
    12
    In his brief, Williams alludes to a claim that his lawyers failed to prepare Joni
    Williams. The parties do not focus on this claim—likely because Williams failed to
    develop it properly in his briefing. To the extent Williams raises such a claim, however, it
    fails under Strickland’s prejudice prong as well. Williams does not even hint at what
    more his mother might have said if trial counsel better prepared her.
    - 56 -
    witnessed police encounters involving his uncles, that he was greatly affected by his
    grandmother’s death, that his uncles were involved in gangs, and that he was exposed to
    violence and criminal activity from a young age. If we consider the affidavits Williams
    presented in state court, the uncles also may have testified that they would sometimes
    beat up on Williams. Some would also have testified, based on personal experience, that
    prison was difficult and that a sentence of life in prison would not let Williams “off the
    hook.”
    There is one key reason why this excluded testimony falls short of that necessary to
    show prejudice under Strickland—the sentencing jury was already “well acquainted”
    with evidence of Williams’s “background and potential humanizing features.” Wong v.
    Belmontes, 
    558 U.S. 15
    , 23 (2009); see Wackerly, 
    580 F.3d at 1182
     (finding no prejudice
    when petitioner argued that his lawyer should have introduced evidence that was
    cumulative of evidence the jury did hear). As the OCCA outlined, both Dr. Draper and
    Joni Williams testified at length about Williams’s upbringing. They told the jury about the
    circumstances of Williams’s conception and premature birth. They told the jury how
    Williams had no contact with his biological father and how Joni left Williams with her
    mother to raise him. They told the jury that Williams got lost in his grandmother’s home
    and that Williams was even more lost following his grandmother’s death by heart attack
    (which Williams witnessed). They told the jury that Williams’s uncles were a negative
    influence and that they exposed him to violence and drug abuse from a young age. Dr.
    Draper even told the jury that the uncles would beat up on Williams. Williams gives us no
    reason to think that other family and friends would have added to this humanizing
    - 57 -
    evidence in any significant way. Even if other witnesses might have offered additional
    details or unique perspectives, we fail to see how the exclusion of this largely cumulative
    evidence might undermine confidence in the outcome. “Many of our cases have also
    refused to find prejudice when the evidence the defendant says counsel should have
    presented would have been cumulative of the evidence the jury actually heard.” See
    Grant, 727 F.3d at 1022.
    The only non-cumulative information the uncles might have presented is their first-
    hand accounts of prison and its effects. Had the lawyers presented this testimony,
    Williams contends there is a reasonable probability that at least one juror might have
    voted differently. This argument is not without merit; undoubtedly, the jurors considered
    whether life imprisonment was sufficient punishment for Williams and, under the
    “continuing threat” aggravating circumstance, whether he might remain a violent person
    even in prison. But even if Williams’s uncles had told the jury that prison was horrible
    and that it has the potential to reform, we cannot overlook the “double-edged nature” of
    this evidence. Wackerly, 
    580 F.3d at 1178
    . For example, if the uncles had testified, then
    the state would have pointed out to the jury that most of Williams’s closest family
    members are convicted felons. Also likely, the prosecution would have elicited testimony
    about the criminal activities that landed the uncles in jail—as well as any criminal
    activities since. Further, the jury would have seen that much of Williams’s support system
    comprised of individuals who (at least at one point in life) were tied to gangs and
    organized violence. This evidence might have made a difference, “but in the wrong
    direction” for Williams. Wong, 
    558 U.S. at 22
    .
    - 58 -
    By pointing this out, we do not mean to say that convicted felons cannot give
    powerful mitigation testimony. For example, in Harlow v. Murphy, on which Williams
    relies, the United States District Court for the District of Wyoming found ineffective
    assistance and resulting prejudice based on counsel’s failure to present testimony from a
    defendant’s fellow inmates. R. vol. I at 406–26 (citing No. 05–cv–039–B, at *38–58 (D.
    Wyo. Feb. 15, 2008) (unpublished)). The petitioner in that case murdered a prison guard
    during an attempted escape. The other inmates whom trial counsel did not call to testify
    would have refuted specific evidence that the defendant was violent during his time in
    prison. 
    Id.
    Here, however, Williams only says that his uncles would have told the jury that prison
    has both the power to punish and to reform. These rather obvious points would not have
    provided much benefit, if any, to Williams, particularly when paired with the more
    damaging information the jury would have learned had the uncles testified. Thus, in
    discussing the uncles’ testimony, we simply mean to point out that we cannot just
    consider how the uncles would have responded to friendly questions from the defense.
    We must also consider what rebuttal evidence the uncles would have “put into play” if the
    uncles actually testified. Wong, 
    558 U.S. at 22
    .
    In his habeas petition, Williams also argues that several of his relatives would also
    have asked the jury to spare his life. The jury heard Joni Williams’s plea, and we do not
    doubt that there are others who love the defendant and would similarly implore the jury
    not to impose the death penalty. The fact remains that Williams has failed to explain why
    pleas from additional witnesses would have made a difference in the jury’s consideration
    - 59 -
    of the aggravating and mitigating circumstances in his case, or in its decision to impose
    the ultimate sentence of death.
    In sum, as sad and difficult as a defendant’s circumstances may be, “evidence of
    childhood abuse or neglect isn’t always severe enough to earn a jury’s sympathies.”
    Grant, 727 F.3d at 1021. The mitigation evidence presented here was obviously not
    enough to earn the jury’s sympathies. Even if trial counsel had hired a mitigation expert
    or called additional witnesses to testify, Williams cannot point to any other evidence that
    his lawyers should have presented that might have moved even a single juror’s
    sympathies his way. See Grant, 727 F.3d at 1018–19.
    Williams would nonetheless like us to grant him an evidentiary hearing on this claim
    to consider new evidence that was not before the OCCA. He points out that claims of this
    variety usually require a hearing. Williams dedicates much of his brief to arguing why he
    is entitled to a hearing and why § 2254(e)(2), which only allows hearings under
    compelling circumstances, does not apply.
    Under the provisions of § 2254(e)(2), a habeas petitioner cannot receive an
    evidentiary hearing whenever an “applicant has failed to develop the factual basis of a
    claim in State court proceedings.” Under those circumstances, a petitioner can only
    receive a hearing when “the facts underlying the claim would be sufficient to establish by
    clear and convincing evidence that but for constitutional error, no reasonable factfinder
    would have found the applicant guilty of the underlying offense.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(2).
    Williams argues that we should not hold him to such a high burden here because he tried
    - 60 -
    to develop the factual basis for his claim in state court but the OCCA unreasonably
    refused to hold a hearing.
    But even if we agree with Williams that § 2254(e)(2) does not apply and afford him
    the benefit of our less-rigorous pre-AEDPA standard, we see no reason for a hearing in
    this case. See Cannon v. Mullin, 
    383 F.3d 1152
    , 1175 (10th Cir. 2004). When §2254(e)(2)
    is inapplicable, a habeas petitioner still is not entitled to an evidentiary hearing unless
    “(1) the facts were not adequately developed in the state court, so long as that failure
    [was] not attributable to the petitioner, and (2) his allegations, if true and not contravened
    by the existing factual record, would entitle him to habeas relief.” Id. (internal citation
    and quotation marks omitted).
    We agree that, under the less-rigorous pre-AEDPA standard, a hearing is usually
    required when a defendant alleges his lawyer failed to investigate his background.
    Without a hearing, it is often difficult to “reliably determine whether counsel’s
    investigation was deficient without knowing what was investigated, and the scope of the
    investigation can rarely be discerned from the trial record.” Fairchild, 
    579 F.3d at 1142
    .
    Even if we agree with Williams that a hearing would have shed light on his lawyers’
    performance in this case, we fail to see how a hearing would give us any insight into the
    question of prejudice—our basis for resolving this claim. Even affording Williams the
    benefit of assuming that counsel performed deficiently and of the pre-AEDPA standard
    for determining whether to grant an evidentiary hearing, we cannot conclude that a
    hearing is necessary. While Williams has alleged facts that, if true, would show deficient
    performance, this is already something we have assumed. However, Williams has not
    - 61 -
    alleged facts that, if true, would demonstrate prejudice under Strickland. See Cannon, 
    383 F.3d at 1175
    . An evidentiary hearing is for determining if allegations have factual
    support; it is not for uncovering new allegations of which the habeas petitioner is
    currently unaware. See Medina v. Barnes, 
    71 F.3d 363
    , 366 (10th Cir. 1995) (determining
    whether petitioner was entitled to an evidentiary hearing “to resolve any disputed facts
    underlying his claims”).
    E. Cumulative Error
    This leaves us with Williams’s claim of cumulative error. He argues that while each
    identified error may be insufficient to warrant habeas relief in isolation, “when viewed in
    their entirety there can be no doubt that [he] has not received effective assistance as
    required by the Sixth Amendment.” (Appellant’s Br. at 90).
    “In the federal habeas context, a cumulative-error analysis aggregates all
    constitutional errors found to be harmless and analyzes whether their cumulative effect
    on the outcome of the trial is such that collectively they can no longer be determined to
    be harmless.” Cole, 755 F.3d at 1177.
    Here, Williams’s “perfunctory assertion falls well short of what’s needed to overturn a
    judgment, let alone one as long-settled and repeatedly reviewed as this one.” Grant, 727
    F.3d at 1025. Even so, we have already concluded that the cumulative effect of all
    presumed errors of counsel was insufficient to create a reasonable probability that, but for
    those errors, the jury would not have convicted Williams of first-degree murder or
    imposed the death penalty. Similarly, Williams has not persuaded us that the combined
    - 62 -
    errors of counsel led to Williams receiving a trial that was not “fundamentally fair.” See
    Cole, 755 F.3d at 1177 (framing cumulative-error question in this fashion).
    III. CONCLUSION
    We affirm the district court’s judgment. We deny Williams’s motion to expand the
    certificate of appealability.
    - 63 -
    No. 12-5190, Williams v. Trammell
    GORSUCH, Circuit Judge, concurring.
    I am pleased to join the court’s opinion and write only to add that if the
    OCCA really means to suggest that strict liability offenses can trigger the death
    penalty, it will face its problems. Addressing Mr. Williams’s direct appeal and
    the larger question of accessory liability in murder cases, the OCCA “overrule[d]”
    its earlier precedents requiring the government to prove that the defendant
    personally intended the death of the victim; mentioned no substitute mens rea;
    and stated that when it comes to proving actus reus, “only slight participation is
    needed” to transform a spectator into an accessory to murder subject to a capital
    charge. Williams v. State, 
    188 P.3d 208
    , 225-26 & n.18 (Okla. Crim. App. 2008)
    (quoting Powell v. State, 
    995 P.2d 510
    , 524 (Okla. Crim. App. 2000)). Under this
    formulation it seems Oklahoma could seek to execute someone just because he
    sold a gun to a buyer who later used it for murder. Even if the seller was lawfully
    in the business of selling firearms. Even if the seller didn’t know the buyer’s
    plans. Even if the seller wasn’t in any way reckless about the possibility that
    someone would get hurt. Oddly, too, on this account accessory liability for
    murder is strict though principal liability still requires proof of mens rea in
    Oklahoma.
    It’s hard to imagine the OCCA meant such a revolution in accessory
    liability in murder cases. Hopefully (surely) the court will soon identify an
    appropriate mens rea. But if it really meant what it said, it will find itself on the
    wrong side of Supreme Court authority. In Enmund v. Florida, 
    458 U.S. 782
    (1982), the Court read the Eighth Amendment to prohibit as “cruel and unusual
    punishment” the execution of an accessory to murder in the absence of proof that
    he “attempt[ed] to kill, or intend[ed] that a killing take place or that lethal
    force . . . be employed.” 
    Id. at 797
    . In Tison v. Arizona, 
    481 U.S. 137
     (1987), the
    Court relaxed this rule somewhat, allowing a state to execute an accessory on a
    lesser mens rea showing — “reckless indifference to human life” — so long as
    the defendant was a “major participant” in the principal’s criminal activities that
    led to the homicide. 
    Id.
     at 158 & n.12. But I am unaware of any Supreme Court
    case law permitting states to execute accessories on a strict liability basis, without
    any showing of mens rea.
    Indeed, executing someone for a strict liability offense would represent not
    only a highly “unusual” punishment but one inimical to the common law at the
    time of the founding. See, e.g., 1 Matthew Hale, The History of the Pleas of the
    Crown 38 (1736) (“[I]t is the will and intention, that regularly is required, as well
    as the act, and event, to make the offense capital.”); Francis Bacon, The Elements
    of the Common Lawes of England 36 (1630) (“In capitall causes in favorem vitae,
    the law will not punish in so high a degree, except the malice of the will and
    intention appeare . . . .”); see also Francis Bowes Sayre, Mens Rea, 
    45 Harv. L. Rev. 974
    , 993 (1932) (“By the second half of the seventeenth century, it was
    universally accepted law that an evil intent was as necessary for felony as the act
    -2-
    itself.”); Paul J. Larkin, Jr., Strict Liability Offenses, Incarceration, and the Cruel
    and Unusual Punishments Clause, 37 Harv. J.L. & Pub. Pol’y 1065 (2014).
    Of course, in relatively recent times strict liability has insinuated its way
    into tort law and even the lower rungs of the criminal law, especially statutory
    and regulatory offenses that impose financial penalties. But the question here
    isn’t who foots the bill but who faces the executioner. And when society seeks to
    pass the ultimate moral judgment on an individual’s actions, the law doesn’t
    concern itself with comparatively trivial questions like who is the least-cost
    avoider but instead takes as its guide individual free will and choice. As Justice
    Jackson explained: “The contention that an injury can amount to a crime only
    when inflicted by intention is no provincial or transient notion. It is as universal
    and persistent in mature systems of law as belief in freedom of the human will
    and a consequent ability and duty of the normal individual to choose between
    good and evil.” Morissette v. United States, 
    342 U.S. 246
    , 250 (1952); see also
    Staples v. United States, 
    511 U.S. 600
    , 616-17 (1994) (“In a system that generally
    requires a ‘vicious will’ to establish a crime, imposing severe punishments for
    offenses that require no mens rea would seem incongruous.” (quoting 4 William
    Blackstone, Commentaries *21)).
    Indeed, even well outside the capital context the usual rule for accessory
    liability in American common law has, absent legislative innovation, required the
    government to prove that the defendant intended the object of his principal’s
    -3-
    crimes — precisely to ensure liability extends only to those who freely choose
    wrong and the dragnet doesn’t reach individuals like the gun seller in the example
    above who perhaps could have (cheaply) avoided the crime but who are going
    about a lawful business. See, e.g., Rosemond v. United States, 
    134 S. Ct. 1240
    ,
    1245, 1248-49 (2014); United States v. Manatau, 
    647 F.3d 1048
    , 1052 (10th Cir.
    2011); United States v. Falcone, 
    109 F.2d 579
    , 581 (2d Cir. 1940) (Hand, J.)
    (defending the traditional view requiring intent for accessory liability in crime
    though of course Hand was himself a key innovator in tort (PL>B) when it came
    to low-cost avoidance); Model Penal Code § 2.02 cmt. 2 (1985); id. § 2.06 cmt.
    6(c).
    As the court today explains, we can avoid deciding whether the OCCA’s
    revamping of Oklahoma aiding and abetting law passes muster under the Supreme
    Court’s Eighth Amendment jurisprudence, though the answer seems both clear
    and clearly unfavorable. We can, however, only because the OCCA proceeded to
    acknowledge that its alterations to Oklahoma accessory liability law were
    essentially irrelevant to its resolution of this case. After overturning its accessory
    liability precedents, the OCCA noted that Mr. Williams could be found guilty
    even under its preexisting formulation of aiding and abetting doctrine because, in
    fact, he intended to kill or knew of his principal’s intent to kill and contributed
    substantially to the murder. Williams, 
    188 P.3d at
    225-26 & n.18. My colleagues
    explain that the OCCA’s determinations on these scores are both reasonable given
    -4-
    the factual record in this case and sufficient to satisfy the Eighth Amendment rule
    announced in Tison. But without the fortuity of this alternative holding, it is
    altogether unclear that the OCCA’s decision in this case would warrant any
    deference in federal court under the directions Congress has given us in 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    -5-