United States v. Seaton ( 2019 )


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  •                                                                                   FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                          Tenth Circuit
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                             June 10, 2019
    _________________________________
    Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                                          No. 19-1093
    (D.C. No. 1:18-CR-00027-RBJ-1)
    MICHAEL JAMES SEATON,                                        (D. Colo.)
    Defendant - Appellant.
    _________________________________
    ORDER AND JUDGMENT*
    _________________________________
    Before LUCERO, BACHARACH, and EID, Circuit Judges.
    _________________________________
    Michael Seaton appeals a district court order requiring that he be involuntarily
    medicated in an effort to restore him to competency to stand trial under Sell v. United
    States, 
    539 U.S. 166
    (2003). Such orders are subject to our interlocutory review
    under the collateral order doctrine. 
    Id. at 177.
    Seaton contends that because the
    length of his pretrial detention (which would be credited to any term of
    imprisonment) may be as long as his Guidelines range, the district court erroneously
    determined the government’s interest in bringing him to trial is important. However,
    Seaton’s calculations fail to consider the potential for a term of supervised release,
    *
    This order and judgment is not binding precedent, except under the doctrines
    of law of the case, res judicata, and collateral estoppel. It may be cited, however, for
    its persuasive value consistent with Fed. R. App. P. 32.1 and 10th Cir. R. 32.1.
    which we conclude is particularly important under the facts of this case and would
    likely extend well beyond the duration of pretrial confinement. Seaton also argues
    the district court clearly erred in ruling that anti-psychotic medication is substantially
    likely to restore him to competency. In light of the expert testimony provided on
    general success rates and factors particular to Seaton, we disagree. Accordingly, we
    affirm the district court’s Sell order.
    I
    Seaton is charged with one count of communicating a threat in interstate
    commerce in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 875(c) and one count of threatening to murder
    the family member of a U.S. official in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 115(a)(1)(A). The
    charges stem from a call he allegedly made to a U.S. Senator.
    Seaton was arrested in January 2018. Shortly after being appointed, defense
    counsel moved for a competency evaluation. Forensic psychiatrist Dr. Susan Bograd
    conducted an in-person evaluation of Seaton that lasted approximately four and a half
    hours. She determined he had suffered from schizophrenia for approximately forty
    years, during which time he had not received mental health treatment. Dr. Bograd
    opined that Seaton was not competent to stand trial because he was unable to assist in
    his defense and did not understand the nature and consequences of the proceeding.
    She also stated: “it is my opinion with a reasonable degree of medical certainty that
    it is more likely than not that his psychiatric symptoms will be insufficiently
    alleviated to achieve restoration to competency” because “[a] great deal of long-
    lasting, well ingrained, complex and multilayered delusional thinking would have to
    2
    resolve for him to understand the nature and consequences of the proceedings and to
    assist properly in his defense.” A second psychiatrist, Dr. Karen Fukutaki, also
    concluded Seaton was not competent to stand trial.
    Following a hearing at which Seaton, Dr. Bograd, and Dr. Fukutaki testified,
    the district court found Seaton incompetent to proceed. It ordered him committed to
    custodial hospitalization under 18 U.S.C. § 4241(d) for up to four months to
    determine whether his condition was likely to improve. Seaton was transferred to a
    Bureau of Prisons (“BOP”) medical facility in Springfield, Missouri.
    BOP forensic psychologist Dr. Lea Ann Preston Baecht saw Seaton routinely
    during his stay and conducted numerous clinical interviews. She encouraged him to
    consent to anti-psychotic medication, but he refused. After several months at the
    facility, Dr. Preston Baecht opined that Seaton remained incompetent and was
    unlikely to be restored to competency absent the use of anti-psychotic medication.
    She further stated that “it is substantially likely that Mr. Seaton will be restored to
    competency” if he were administered anti-psychotic medication. She explained that
    she could not “guarantee” such an outcome but noted that “the available literature
    supports the conclusion that most individuals with psychotic symptoms can be
    successfully restored to competency.” Dr. Robert Sarrazin, chief of psychiatry at the
    facility, prepared a treatment plan identifying specific medication and dosages.
    Dr. Bograd conducted a second interview with Seaton. She agreed that Seaton
    remained incompetent to proceed. She also concluded that anti-psychotic medication
    was in “Seaton’s best medical interest because of his mental health condition.”
    3
    However, Dr. Bograd concluded “that medication is not substantially likely to
    render . . . Seaton competent” because “[h]is delusional belief system is longstanding
    and complex.”
    The government then moved for a Sell hearing and an order for involuntary
    medication of Seaton. Seaton opposed the motion. The district court held an
    evidentiary hearing at which Dr. Bograd, Dr. Preston Baecht, and Dr. Sarrazin
    testified.
    Dr. Preston Baecht testified that she met with Seaton at least once per week
    over four months, and spent many hours with him. During her twenty-year BOP
    career, she had seen approximately fifty to seventy patients per year, the majority of
    whom were evaluated for restoration of competency. Based on that experience and
    on competency-restoration literature, Dr. Preston Baecht concluded that medication
    was substantially likely to render Seaton competent. She explained that the literature
    indicated approximately 75 to ninety percent of patients treated with anti-psychotic
    medication are restored to competency.
    She discussed several factors that influence individual defendants’ prognoses.
    A co-occurring cognitive disorder, such as dementia, or a prior history of failed
    treatments make it less likely that medication will be successful. Seaton did not
    present either factor. She also noted that Seaton’s “particular case” was not factually
    complex. Dr. Preston Baecht conceded some of Seaton’s characteristics had been
    found to correlate with less favorable prognoses, including poor adjustment prior to
    his primary diagnosis of schizophrenia and being male. However, she stated that
    4
    Seaton was not atypical in terms of the degree to which his delusions are entrenched
    or the extent of his impairment.
    Although she acknowledged that the length of untreated psychosis correlates
    with poor outcomes, Dr. Preston Baecht noted most of that research does not focus on
    competency restoration. And she stated that data on competency restoration typically
    does not “parse out duration of untreated psychosis.” But in her “personal
    experience,” she had observed improvement in “patients that have gone many, many
    years without being treated.” Dr. Preston Baecht further stated that she has had “a lot
    of patients that go a very long time without receiving treatment, and they still
    respond well to medicine.” She identified one patient who had been psychotic for
    approximately forty years, with one brief period of medical restoration fifteen years
    prior, whose symptoms had completely remitted. She concluded:
    although I think it is reasonable to be concerned that [Seaton] may not
    respond as well as if he had received treatment as soon as his symptoms
    emerged, I don’t think that it’s enough for me to say it’s a barrier that he
    will not be restored, because in my experience, even with long periods
    of untreated psychosis, I still see [patients] benefiting from treatment.
    Dr. Sarrazin also testified that medication was substantially likely to restore
    Seaton to competency. Based on his seventeen years of experience at the BOP
    facility, Dr. Sarrazin stated that approximately 75 percent of patients treated with
    anti-psychotic medication are restored to competency. He also identified several
    factors that influence the likelihood an individual will respond favorably, including
    past response to anti-psychotic medication, age, and a significant intellectual
    disability. He conceded that the duration of untreated psychosis is a factor. But he
    5
    explained that some of the literature to that effect focused on individuals who had
    either a separate cognitive issue or had been hospitalized for lengthy periods.
    Because Seaton had been functioning in society for the duration of his illness, Dr.
    Sarrazin suggested his issues were likely less severe than those who failed to respond
    to treatment.
    Dr. Bograd testified that anti-psychotic medication was not substantially likely
    to restore Seaton to competency. She stated that medication would likely provide
    some benefit, but the length of time Seaton had been suffering untreated and the fact
    that Seaton’s delusions were deeply ingrained made it less likely medication would
    restore him to competency. Dr. Bograd testified that she was not necessarily
    comparing the degree of Seaton’s delusional belief system with other schizophrenic
    patients, but that Seaton was an “exception in [her] broader experience.” She
    admitted, however, that Seaton had been able to live independently throughout his
    adult life despite his illness.
    At the close of the hearing the district court stated it was “probably” going to
    rule in favor of Seaton. However, Seaton indicated he would be willing to take
    medication. The government withdrew its Sell motion. Shortly after the hearing,
    however, defense counsel informed the court and the government that Seaton again
    refused medication. The government then renewed its Sell motion.
    The district court convened a second hearing but did not hear any additional
    evidence. It concluded the government had carried its burden of establishing the Sell
    factors by clear and convincing evidence. As to whether medication was
    6
    substantially likely to restore Seaton to competency, the district court summarized the
    testimony of the three witnesses. In discussing that testimony, the district court
    stated it had “no way of knowing” whether the medication would work, and “the only
    way that we can really find out if they will render him competent is to try it.” The
    court further stated “that these medications are very likely to help Mr. Seaton, and
    there is at least a decent possibility, maybe probability, that they would either render
    him competent or answer the question.” Defense counsel objected that the standard
    is substantial probability. The court then stated it had misspoken, and after again
    discussing the expert testimony found “that the evidence establishes that the
    medications are substantially likely to render the defendant competent and
    substantially unlikely to have side effects that will interfere with his ability to assist
    his counsel by a vote of two to one.”
    The district court entered a written order granting the government’s Sell
    motion. It permitted the government to pursue a specified treatment plan for a period
    of up to four months. Seaton filed a notice of appeal. The district court then stayed
    its order pending appeal.
    II
    “The forcible injection of medication into a nonconsenting person’s body . . .
    represents a substantial interference with that person’s liberty.” Riggins v. Nevada,
    
    504 U.S. 127
    , 134 (1992) (quotation omitted). “[I]nstances of involuntary
    medication of a non-dangerous defendant solely to render him competent to stand
    7
    trial should be rare and occur only in limited circumstances.” United States v.
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 
    479 F.3d 1220
    , 1223 (10th Cir. 2007) (quotation omitted).
    To obtain an order for the involuntary medication of a pretrial detainee for the
    purpose of restoring him to competency, the government must show:
    (1) “important governmental interests are at stake”; (2) the “involuntary
    medication will significantly further” those interests; (3) the
    “involuntary medication is necessary to further those interests,” e.g.,
    less intrusive alternative treatments are unlikely to be effective; and (4)
    the administration of the medication is “medically appropriate” and in
    the defendant’s best medical interests.
    United States v. Chavez, 
    734 F.3d 1247
    , 1249 (10th Cir. 2013) (quoting 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180-81
    (emphases omitted)). The first two prongs “are primarily legal
    questions that we review de novo.” 
    Id. at 1250.
    Any underlying factual findings,
    which the district court must find by clear and convincing evidence, are reviewed for
    clear error. 
    Id. Clear and
    convincing evidence is that which “places in the ultimate
    factfinder an abiding conviction that the truth of its factual contentions are highly
    probable.” 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1228
    (quotation and alteration omitted).
    The first two prongs of the Sell test are at issue in this appeal.
    A
    In general, “[t]he Government’s interest in bringing to trial an individual
    accused of a serious crime is important.” 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180
    . “Whether a crime is
    ‘serious’ relates to the possible penalty the defendant faces if convicted, as well as
    the nature or effect of the underlying conduct for which he was charged.”
    
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1226
    . In Valenzuela-Puentes, we concluded a crime
    8
    with a statutory maximum of twenty years was “serious,” and cited with approval a
    Fourth Circuit case holding that a crime with a statutory maximum of ten years also
    so qualified. 
    Id. (citing United
    States v. Evans, 
    404 F.3d 227
    , 232 (4th Cir. 2005)).
    The statutory maximum under § 875(c) is five years, and the maximum under § 115
    is ten years. We also agree with the district court that the threatening conduct at
    issue was of considerable gravity. See 
    Evans, 404 F.3d at 232
    (holding that threats
    made to a federal judge charged under § 115 are sufficiently serious).
    Although the government’s interest in charging Seaton is important, “[s]pecial
    circumstances may lessen the importance of that interest.” 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1227
    (quotation omitted). For example, a defendant may have “already been
    confined for a significant amount of time (for which he would receive credit toward
    any sentence ultimately imposed).” 
    Id. (quotation omitted).
    Accordingly, “when the
    amount of time the defendant is confined pending determination of competency is in
    parity with an expected sentence in the criminal proceeding, the Government may no
    longer be able to claim an important interest in prosecution.” 
    Id. (quotation omitted);
    see also United States v. Bradley, 
    417 F.3d 1107
    , 1117 (10th Cir. 2005) (considering
    the time that “elapsed between [defendant]’s commitment for competency
    examination and the court’s order for involuntary administration of antipsychotic
    drugs”). In determining the expected sentence, we have looked to the statutory
    maximum and the likely Guidelines range. See 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1226
    (noting defendant “faces a statutory maximum prison term of twenty years,
    9
    although if he pleads guilty he will likely be sentenced within the guideline range to a
    term of 77 to 96 months”).1
    As noted above, Seaton’s statutory maximum sentences are five and ten years.
    § 875(c); § 115. The parties provide a number of potential Guidelines ranges. It
    appears Seaton’s criminal history category is I and the base offense level for both
    charges is twelve.2 See U.S.S.G. § 2A6.1(a)(1). It is not clear whether his two
    offenses would be grouped under U.S.S.G. § 3D1.2. If they do not group, he could
    be subject to an increased offense level. See U.S.S.G. § 3D1.4. Seaton might face a
    two-level enhancement if the offense involved more than two threats, U.S.S.G.
    § 2A6.1(b)(2)(A), and a four-level enhancement if the threat resulted in a substantial
    expenditure of resources, U.S.S.G. § 2A6.1(b)(4)(B). Seaton could also obtain a two-
    level reduction for acceptance of responsibility. U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1. If each of these
    issues were decided in Seaton’s favor, his Guidelines range could be as low as six to
    twelve months. If each of these issues were decided in the government’s favor, his
    1
    Seaton argues that the district court failed to consider this special
    circumstance. However, during the first hearing, the district court discussed the
    matter. At one point, the court stated that Seaton’s “sentence might be eaten up
    already by the time he’s served, right? That’s what you’re trying to convince me in
    your document.” It also noted that Seaton could be in pretrial custody for “around 30
    months.” In making its ruling on the first prong, the court stated that it had
    “considered defendant’s position.” We thus reject Seaton’s contention that the
    district court failed to assess whether his pretrial detention diminished the
    government’s interest.
    2
    The foregoing discussion of Seaton’s potential Guidelines calculations are
    based on the parties’ submissions. We of course cannot definitively calculate his
    Guidelines range at this stage of the proceeding.
    10
    range could be as high as thirty to 37 months. The government also notes that Seaton
    faces a term of supervised release following any sentence of imprisonment. Under
    U.S.S.G. § 5D1.2(a)(1), he would likely receive one to three years of supervised
    release. The district court referenced supervised release several times during the
    hearing.
    At the time of the district court’s decision, Seaton had been in custody for
    fourteen months. Restoration to competency through the use of anti-psychotic
    medication generally takes four to eight months. Additional time would be required
    for pretrial motions, potentially a trial, and sentencing to be completed. Seaton also
    notes good-time credits are available at a rate of 54 days per year. 18 U.S.C.
    § 3624(b).
    Considering all of these factors, we conclude that “the amount of time [Seaton]
    is confined pending determination of competency” is not “in parity with an expected
    sentence.” 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1227
    (quotation omitted). We
    acknowledge the possibility that Seaton’s Guidelines calculations could result in one
    of the lower ranges he identifies. Nevertheless, a lengthy term of pretrial detention in
    relation to the expected sentence “affects, but does not totally undermine, the
    strength of the need for prosecution.” 
    Sell, 539 U.S. at 180
    .
    Even if the length of Seaton’s pretrial detention were to fall near his
    Guidelines range for imprisonment, he likely would face a term of supervised release.
    We are particularly persuaded that the government maintains an interest in supervised
    release in Seaton’s specific case should he be convicted. In United States v. Onuoha,
    11
    
    820 F.3d 1049
    (9th Cir. 2016), a defendant charged with making threats had been in
    custody for longer than his minimum Guidelines range sentence, but the court
    explained that “a sentence might also include a period of supervised release, which
    would help ensure that [the defendant] does not return to making threats when
    released into the public.” 
    Id. at 1056
    (quotation omitted). Other courts have made
    similar observations. See United States v. Mackey, 
    717 F.3d 569
    , 575 (8th Cir.
    2013) (noting that a term of supervised release, a “sanction—not available in a civil
    commitment proceeding—furthers the government’s interest”); United States v.
    Gutierrez, 
    704 F.3d 442
    , 451 (5th Cir. 2013) (noting that a “conviction would
    authorize the district court to impose a term of supervised release, which would
    facilitate monitoring of [the defendant] to ensure that he does not pose a threat to
    others”); United States v. White, 
    620 F.3d 401
    , 413 (4th Cir. 2010) (identifying the
    fact that “if a conviction were obtained, the district court would have the option of
    imposing a period of supervised release as a factor bolstering the government’s
    interest”).
    We accordingly affirm the district court’s ruling that the government has
    established “important governmental interests are at stake.” 
    Chavez, 734 F.3d at 1249
    (quotation and emphasis omitted).
    B
    Seaton also argues the district court should be reversed on the second prong of
    the Sell test, whether involuntary medication will “significantly further” the
    government’s 
    interest. 539 U.S. at 180
    . To satisfy this prong, the government must
    12
    prove “that administration of the drugs is substantially likely to render the defendant
    competent to stand trial.” 
    Id. at 181.3
    It must do so by clear and convincing
    evidence. 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1224
    .
    Seaton advances two separate arguments. First, he contends the district court
    applied an incorrect standard. He relies on the district court’s initial statements that
    there was “a decent possibility, maybe probability” that Seaton would be restored to
    competency and that the only way to be certain “is to try it.” We agree with Seaton
    that these comments reflect an incorrect standard. But the district court explained
    that it had misstated its conclusions, and expressly entered the finding “that the
    medications are substantially likely to render the defendant competent.”4 Seaton also
    points to the court’s statement that he was likely to become competent “by a vote of
    two to one,” explaining that a court cannot “base its decision on a mechanical nose
    count of witnesses.” Sahara Coal Co. v. Fitts, 
    39 F.3d 781
    , 782-83 (7th Cir. 1994).
    We read the district court’s statement as merely a summary of the witnesses’
    testimony rather than a rationale for its decision.
    3
    The government is also required to prove “that administration of the drugs is
    substantially unlikely to have side effects that will interfere significantly with the
    defendant’s ability to assist counsel in conducting a trial defense, thereby rendering
    the trial unfair.” 
    Id. But that
    portion of the test is not in dispute.
    4
    Our dissenting colleague cites Chavez for the proposition that the district
    court’s finding was insufficient. (Dissenting Op. 1-2 n.1.) In that case, we
    considered a Sell order that lacked “any details regarding what drugs could be
    administered to [the defendant] or at what doses.” 
    Id. at 1252.
    The “high level of
    detail,” 
    id. we referred
    to relates to the requirement that Sell orders “specify which
    medications might be administered and their maximum dosages,” 
    id. at 1253.
                                               13
    Second, Seaton argues the district court clearly erred in finding the
    government carried its burden. We are not persuaded. Dr. Preston Baecht testified
    that approximately 75 to ninety percent of patients who are medicated are restored to
    competency. Dr. Sarrazin similarly stated that the success rate is approximately 75
    percent. Of course, as one of our sibling circuits has observed, the government
    cannot merely show that a proposed treatment is “generally effective” but instead
    must prove that a proposed treatment plan, “as applied to this particular defendant, is
    substantially likely to render the defendant competent to stand trial.” United States
    v. Watson, 
    793 F.3d 416
    , 424 (4th Cir. 2015) (quotations and emphasis omitted).
    That burden “requires consideration of factors specific to the defendant in question.”
    
    Id. In addition
    to relying on statistical information from the literature and their
    general experience with patients, the government’s witnesses identified numerous
    individualized factors suggestive of a positive outcome in Seaton’s particular case.
    As the district court explained, “[t]hey cited the statistics, yes, over and over, but
    they also—both of them said that they assessed him on his own, and felt that based
    on their assessment he likely would fit into the statistical categories.” Drs. Preston
    Baecht and Sarrazin testified that the following individual factors indicated that
    Seaton was likely to be restored to competence: (1) Seaton did not suffer from a co-
    occurring cognitive disorder; (2) he did not have a prior history of failed treatments;
    (3) his court case is not factually complex; and (4) Seaton had been functioning in
    society despite his lack of treatment.
    14
    Dr. Bograd disagreed with this assessment based on two inter-related factors
    indicating a poorer prognosis: the duration and depth of Seaton’s delusions. The
    government’s witnesses both acknowledged these factors lessen the likelihood of
    successful treatment. But they persuasively rebutted Dr. Bograd’s overall
    conclusion.
    Dr. Preston Baecht stated that most of the research regarding duration of
    untreated illness does not look at competency restoration. She explained that the
    standards for competency and general clinical success differed because “[i]t is not
    necessary for all symptoms to remit completely in order for someone to be
    considered competent.” Relying on her personal experience,5 Dr. Preston Baecht
    testified that she observed “many patients over the years that were treated, their
    delusions reduced in intensity but did not go away, and were ultimately found to be
    competent because they were able to work with their attorney for the resolution of
    their case without allowing those delusional beliefs to impact their decision-making.”
    She stated that many of her patients had lengthy histories of untreated delusions but
    nevertheless responded favorably, specifically discussing one such patient with a
    history similar to Seaton’s. Dr. Preston Baecht, who spent the most time with Seaton
    5
    Dr. Preston Baecht has conducted hundreds of evaluations for restoration to
    competency. Althought the dissent focuses on a few of the particular patients she
    discussed at the hearing, Dr. Preston Baecht was clear she was using those
    individuals as examples from her more extensive experience.
    15
    of the witnesses,6 also testified that Seaton did not have unusually entrenched
    delusions or an unusually severe impairment.
    Dr. Sarrazin also noted certain confounding factors as to duration of illness.
    He challenged one particular study about the duration of untreated illness, stating that
    unrestorable patients with a lengthy history in that study also had “severe mental
    illness.” Although he admitted that Seaton has a “significant delusion system,” Dr.
    Sarrazin testified that because Seaton had been functioning in the community, “been
    able to live with others, live independently, and hasn’t been involuntarily
    hospitalized,” his illness “may not be as severe as some other individuals, because he
    hasn’t come to the attention of authorities.”
    The government in this case was required to prove all necessary facts by clear
    and convincing evidence—a high bar. 
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 479 F.3d at 1224
    . But in
    reviewing the district court’s factual finding that Seaton is substantially likely to
    regain competency through the proposed treatment plan, our review is for clear error.
    
    Chavez, 734 F.3d at 1249
    . A finding is clearly erroneous if “the reviewing court, on
    review of the entire record, is left with the definite and firm conviction that a mistake
    has been committed.” United States v. Gilgert, 
    314 F.3d 506
    , 515 (10th Cir. 2002)
    (quotation and alteration omitted). Under this standard, “our role is not to re-weigh
    the evidence; rather, our review of the district court’s finding is significantly
    6
    The dissent claims that much of Dr. Preston Baecht’s time with Seaton did
    not result in meaningful insight into his condition. (Dissenting Op. 8.) However, she
    merely stated that she found it unproductive to spend a significant amount of time
    having Seaton repeat the issues on which he was fixated.
    16
    deferential.” 
    Id. at 515-16
    (quotation omitted). Having reviewed the entire record,
    we cannot say the district court clearly erred in finding a substantial likelihood that
    Seaton will be restored to competency.
    III
    AFFIRMED.
    Entered for the Court
    Carlos F. Lucero
    Circuit Judge
    17
    United States v. Seaton, No. 19-1093
    BACHARACH, J., dissenting.
    I agree with the majority that the government established the first of
    the Sell elements: Mr. Seaton is charged with a serious crime, and
    important governmental interests are at stake. Maj. Order & Judgment at 8–
    12. The majority also concludes that the government met its burden under
    Sell’s second element. I disagree with this conclusion, so I respectfully
    dissent.
    1.    Introduction
    On the second element of Sell, the district court concluded that the
    government had shown by clear and convincing evidence that the forced
    administration of psychotropic drugs was substantially likely to restore Mr.
    Seaton to competency. The court first acknowledged uncertainty about the
    likelihood of restoring Mr. Seaton’s competency through involuntary
    medication, commenting that the three doctors could provide only educated
    guesses about that issue. When reminded of the government’s strenuous
    burden, the court revised its explanation, stating that it had found
    restoration to competency substantially likely by a vote of two to one
    (because two expert witnesses testified that involuntary medication would
    likely be effective and only one expert testified to the contrary). 1
    1
    The majority downplays this comment, stating that the district
    court’s reference to the number of expert witnesses served only as “a
    In my view, the district court clearly erred in finding that the
    government had shown by clear and convincing evidence that involuntary
    medication was substantially likely to restore Mr. Seaton to competency. I
    would thus vacate the district court’s order and remand with instructions to
    deny the government’s Sell motion.
    2.    Sell orders
    The government bears a strenuous evidentiary burden because
    involuntary medication substantially interferes with the defendant’s
    liberty. See Washington v. Harper, 
    494 U.S. 210
    , 229 (1990) (“The forcible
    injection of medication into a nonconsenting person’s body represents a
    substantial interference with that person’s liberty.”). Given the
    interference with the defendant’s liberty, the government must justify
    involuntary medication with clear and convincing evidence on each of the
    four Sell elements. United States v. Bradley, 
    417 F.3d 1107
    , 1114 (10th
    Cir. 1995).
    summary of the witnesses’ testimony rather than a rationale for its
    decision.” Maj. Order & Judgment at 13. I question this interpretation. In
    stating that the vote was “two to one,” the court did not refer to the content
    of any of the testimony. Appellant’s Opening Br., attach. A, at 6. But if the
    majority’s interpretation is correct, the district court supplied no reason for
    finding that the government had satisfied its burden on Sell’s second
    element. The absence of any explanation would require us to reverse
    because Sell requires at least some explanation for the findings on the
    second element. See United States v. Chavez, 
    734 F.3d 1247
    , 1252 (10th
    Cir. 2013) (stating that Sell “plainly contemplate[s]” “comprehensive
    findings” and “a high level of detail”).
    2
    Evidence is clear and convincing only when it triggers an “abiding
    conviction” in the correctness of the government’s position, “instantly
    tilt[ing] the evidentiary scales” when weighed against the defendant’s
    contrary evidence. United States v. Valenzuela-Puentes, 
    479 F.3d 1220
    ,
    1228 (10th Cir. 2007) (quoting Colorado v. New Mexico, 
    467 U.S. 310
    , 316
    (1984)). The rigor of this burden reflects the Supreme Court’s
    consideration of the relative risks when psychotropic medication is forced
    on defendants to restore competency. See Addington v. Texas, 
    441 U.S. 418
    , 427 (1979) (“The individual should not be asked to share equally with
    society the risk of error when the possible injury to the individual is
    significantly greater than any possible harm to the state.”).
    Applying the Supreme Court’s treatment of the relative risks, the
    district court must consider the evidence in light of the intensity of the risk
    to Mr. Seaton. The government bears a particularly heavy burden because
    the risk of injury to defendants, like Mr. Seaton, dwarfs the risk to society
    at large. 
    Id. If the
    psychotropic drugs are substantially likely to restore Mr.
    Seaton to competency, the parties would both benefit substantially. (The
    government would be able to prosecute the criminal case, and Mr. Seaton’s
    mental health would improve.) But if the court allows involuntary
    medication without the required proof, not only would the government
    remain unable to try Mr. Seaton but he would also lose freedom over his
    own thought processes. Thus, the district court must reserve Sell orders to
    3
    “rare” and “limited” circumstances and require the government to establish
    the necessary facts by clear and convincing evidence. Sell v. United States,
    
    539 U.S. 166
    , 169 (2003).
    The majority acknowledges that the government must show that the
    proposed treatment plan, “as applied to this particular defendant, is
    substantially likely to render the defendant competent to stand trial.” Maj.
    Order & Judgment at 14 (quoting United States v. Watson, 
    793 F.3d 416
    ,
    424 (4th Cir. 2015)). As a result, the government’s evidence must go
    beyond generalities, focusing on the particular defendant’s mental
    condition, including the intensity and duration of his or her delusions. See
    United States v. Evans, 
    404 F.3d 227
    , 242 (4th Cir. 2005).
    3.   The evidence presented to the district court
    To support its request for a Sell order, the government presented
    testimony from two psychiatrists: Dr. Lea Ann Preston Baecht and Dr.
    Robert Sarrazin. In reaching their conclusions regarding the effectiveness
    of involuntarily medicating Mr. Seaton, Dr. Preston Baecht and Dr.
    Sarrazin relied on generalized evidence, focusing on statistics reflecting
    the effectiveness of involuntary medication in restoring competency to
    defendants with a broad swath of psychotic disorders. For example, Dr.
    Preston Baecht testified that roughly 75–90% of individuals with psychotic
    disorders are restored to competency when treated with antipsychotic
    medication.
    4
    Mr. Seaton countered with psychiatric testimony focusing on his own
    particular circumstances: roughly 40 years of intense delusions without any
    treatment whatsoever. His expert witness, Dr. Susan Bograd, first
    examined Mr. Seaton for over four hours. After this examination, Dr.
    Bograd focused on Mr. Seaton’s deeply entrenched delusions, concluding
    that they were probably too intense and durable to permit restoration of
    competency through forced medication:
    Wherein I see a real problem in this case is the issue of
    restoration to competency. [Mr.] Seaton has been quite mentally
    ill for approximately 40 years. He has not received mental health
    treatment for approximately 40 years. His long-standing
    delusional belief system is well ingrained, complex, and
    multilayered. His life has revolved around his delusional belief
    system.
    . . .
    In the event that he were to receive antipsychotic medication,
    whether voluntarily or not, it is my opinion with a reasonable
    degree of medical certainty that it is more likely than not that
    his psychiatric symptoms will be insufficiently alleviated to
    achieve restoration to competency. A great deal of long-lasting,
    well ingrained, complex and multilayered delusional thinking
    would have to resolve for him to understand the nature and
    consequences of the proceedings and to assist properly in his
    defense.
    R., vol. II, at 40.
    After a follow-up examination that lasted roughly two hours, Dr.
    Bograd reaffirmed her earlier conclusion:
    It is my opinion with a reasonable degree of medical certainty
    that with appropriate medication there is not a substantial
    likelihood that his understanding of the charges against him
    5
    would cease to be distorted, that he would be able to rationally
    understand the roles of the various officers of the court[,] that
    he would be able to rationally understand legal advice and
    concepts provided him by his attorney and that he would be able
    to provide his attorney rational information sufficient to prepare
    for trial.
    
    Id. at 64.
    Dr. Bograd added that forced medication would only deepen Mr.
    Seaton’s delusions: “It is also my opinion with reasonable degree of
    medical certainty that [Mr.] Seaton would experience forced medication as
    abusive and that it would feed into his delusional belief system.” 
    Id. The majority
    acknowledges Dr. Bograd’s opinions but concludes that
    they had been effectively rebutted by the government’s two expert
    witnesses. But at oral argument, the government acknowledged that its
    expert witnesses had not addressed Dr. Bograd’s testimony, explaining that
    the two government witnesses had simply arrived at a different conclusion.
    The government was right: Its expert witnesses hadn’t addressed Dr.
    Bograd’s testimony. Both government witnesses reviewed Dr. Bograd’s
    report prior to testifying. But Dr. Sarrazin never discussed Dr. Bograd’s
    analysis or her conclusions. Unlike Dr. Sarrazin, Dr. Preston Baecht did
    refer to Dr. Bograd, but only to express agreement with her diagnosis of
    Mr. Seaton.
    Rather than address Dr. Bograd’s particularized focus on the
    intensity and duration of Mr. Seaton’s delusions, Dr. Sarrazin and Dr.
    Preston Baecht relied on generalized statistical evidence about the
    6
    effectiveness of involuntary medication. This generalized evidence did not
    satisfy the government’s rigorous burden in the absence of a reason to
    discount Dr. Bograd’s opinion testimony focusing on Mr. Seaton’s
    delusions over roughly 40 years. See United States v. Valenzuela-Puentes,
    
    479 F.3d 1220
    , 1228–29 (10th Cir. 2007) (stating that we could not affirm
    the district court’s factual findings when a physician had testified that the
    defendant’s delusions were too “deeply ingrained” to disappear with
    psychotropic medication).
    The majority concludes that the district court could reasonably credit
    the government’s expert witnesses over Mr. Seaton’s witness because (1)
    one of them (Dr. Preston Baecht) had spent more time with Mr. Seaton, (2)
    one of Dr. Preston Baecht’s patients had been restored to competency
    despite a history resembling Mr. Seaton’s, and (3) both of the government
    witnesses explained why they believed that Mr. Seaton’s delusions were
    treatable with medication.
    I respectfully disagree with the majority analysis for four reasons:
    1.    The district court did not rely on these factors when granting
    the government’s request for a Sell order.
    2.    Dr. Preston Baecht acknowledged that much of her time with
    Mr. Seaton was useless.
    3.    Dr. Preston Baecht’s limited experience with three other
    patients does not supply meaningful guidance on how Mr.
    Seaton would react to involuntary medication after
    experiencing intense delusions for approximately 40 years.
    7
    4.    The government’s two expert witnesses did not supply any
    reason to question the severity of Mr. Seaton’s delusions.
    First, the majority’s explanations are post-hoc. The district court did
    not suggest that it was crediting the government’s evidence for the reasons
    now offered by the majority. The court instead relied solely on the fact that
    the government had presented two expert witnesses and Mr. Seaton had
    presented only one.
    Second, the amount of time that Dr. Preston Baecht had spent with
    Mr. Seaton could not supply meaningful guidance on the second Sell
    element. Dr. Preston Baecht did testify that she had met with Mr. Seaton
    over a period of about four months. But she didn’t suggest meaningful
    insight from this time with Mr. Seaton. Indeed, she said the opposite,
    admitting that much of the time was unhelpful: “[Mr. Seaton] perseverated
    on the same issues, and so what I found was it wasn’t really productive to
    spend a significant amount of time going over that material.” R., vol. III,
    at 17.
    Third, Dr. Preston Baecht did not say, or even suggest, that she had a
    suitable universe of comparable patients to meaningfully guide her
    assessment of Mr. Seaton. She mentioned three patients. Two showed
    improvement after experiencing delusions for about ten years, and Dr.
    Preston Baecht did not say that their medication had been involuntary. A
    third patient had experienced psychoses for roughly 40 years. After about
    8
    25 years, he improved with psychotropic medication. He then stopped
    taking the medication for over a decade, but his symptoms remitted after
    he started taking the medication again. 2
    Dr. Preston Baecht’s experience with these three patients did not
    provide a sufficient basis to predict the effectiveness of involuntary
    medication on Mr. Seaton. Indeed, Dr. Preston Baecht acknowledged that
    she had never treated anyone who, like Mr. Seaton, “has gone 40 years
    without treatment.” R. vol. III, at 54. And she acknowledged that no one
    knows how Mr. Seaton would respond to medication because he “may have
    been ill for a very, very long time without treatment.” 
    Id. at 25;
    see
    Christopher Slobogin, Sell’s Conundrums: The Right of Incompetent
    Defendants to Refuse Anti-Psychotic Medication, 89 Wash. U.L. Rev. 1523,
    1530 n.43 (2012) (“The longer the duration between the onset of serious
    psychosis and treatment, the more likely long-term disability will result.”).
    Given this uncertainty about how Mr. Seaton would respond to treatment,
    Dr. Preston Baecht could only guess about the applicability of her general
    2
    The majority notes that Dr. Preston Baecht has conducted hundreds
    of evaluations for restoration of competency. Maj. Order & Judgment, at
    15 n.5. But the government hasn’t suggested that those hundreds of
    evaluation are pertinent. At oral argument, the Court asked the government
    what evidence existed to show that psychotropic medication would likely
    help restore competency for someone, like Mr. Seaton, who had gone
    roughly 40 years without any treatment. In response, the government relied
    solely on Dr. Preston Baecht’s testimony about her experience in treating
    these three individuals.
    9
    statistics. See Dora W. Klein, Curiouser & Curiouser: Involuntary
    Medications & Incompetent Criminal Defendants After Sell v. United
    States, 13 Wm. & Mary Bill of Rts. J. 897, 911 (2005) (“In most cases, . . .
    unless a defendant has taken psychotropic medications in the past, a court
    will be unable to do more than offer a best guess as to which—if any—
    medications will render a defendant competent to stand trial.”).
    Fourth, the government’s two expert witnesses provided no
    meaningful reason to question the severity of Mr. Seaton’s delusions.
    Dr. Sarrazin speculated that Mr. Seaton’s delusions might not be as
    severe as “some other individuals” because he had not “come to the
    attention of authorities.” R., vol. III, at 79. But Dr. Sarrazin did not
    identify “other individuals” in his comparison or suggest how Mr. Seaton’s
    delusions could have attracted the attention of the “authorities.” The
    authorities presumably wouldn’t have responded based on dangerousness
    because the parties agree that Mr. Seaton does not pose a danger to himself
    or others.
    And Dr. Preston Baecht did not question the severity of Mr. Seaton’s
    delusions. She testified that
          Mr. Seaton had a “major mental illness,” characterized by
    hallucinations, delusional thinking, and thought
    disorganization, and
          his “delusions [were] very entrenched, and his thinking [was]
    very disorganized.”
    10
    R., vol. III, at 18, 33. Nor did Dr. Preston Baecht suggest that she was
    basing her opinion on a belief that Mr. Seaton’s mental condition was
    commonplace. To the contrary, she based her opinion on statistics
    regarding competency restoration and her own experience in restoring
    other defendants to competency.
    Faced with a battle of the experts, the district court had to determine
    whether the government’s evidence “instantly tilted the evidentiary scales”
    when weighed against Mr. Seaton’s contrary evidence. United States v.
    Valenzuela-Puentes, 
    479 F.3d 1220
    , 1228 (10th Cir. 2007) (quoting
    Colorado v. New Mexico, 
    467 U.S. 310
    , 316 (1984)). And in determining
    whether the evidentiary scales instantly tilted, the district court needed to
    focus on the defendant’s particular circumstances rather than generalized
    evidence about the effectiveness of involuntary medication. See p. 4,
    above. This focus required more than unexplained deference to the
    government’s two expert witnesses. Indeed, it was “especially important”
    for the court to “consider and contend with substantial evidence that would
    undermine the case for forcible medication.” United States v. Watson, 
    793 F.3d 416
    , 424 (4th Cir. 2015).
    In this case, the district court relied solely on a “vote of two to one,”
    referring to the presence of two expert witnesses for the government and
    only one for Mr. Seaton. Appellant’s Opening Br., attach. A, at 6. The
    existence of one additional expert witness for the government does not
    11
    supply clear and convincing evidence that involuntary medication is
    substantially likely to restore Mr. Seaton to competency.
    And even if we were to engage in post-hoc consideration of
    alternative justifications for the Sell order, the government’s two expert
    witnesses relied solely on generalized evidence involving the statistical
    effectiveness of involuntary medication. They didn’t even suggest that they
    were basing their opinions on Mr. Seaton’s particular circumstances. Such
    generalized statistical evidence does not substitute for meaningful
    consideration of Mr. Seaton’s particular circumstances. See United States
    v. Evans, 
    404 F.3d 227
    , 241 (4th Cir. 2005). 3 Indeed, “[p]ermitting the
    government to meet its burden through generalized evidence” involving the
    statistical effectiveness of involuntary medication on defendants with
    psychoses “would effectively allow [the government] to prevail in every
    3
    The Evans court explained:
    Instead of analyzing Evans as an individual, the report
    simply sets up syllogisms to explain its conclusions: (1) atypical
    antipsychotic medications are generally effective, produce few
    side effects, and are medically appropriate, (2) Evans will be
    given atypical antipsychotic medications, (3) therefore, atypical
    antipsychotic medication will be effective, produce few side
    effects, and be medically appropriate for Evans. To hold that this
    type of analysis satisfies Sell’s second and fourth factors would
    be to find the government necessarily meets its burden in every
    case it wishes to use atypical antipsychotic medication. We do
    not believe that Sell’s analysis permits such 
    deference. 404 F.3d at 241
    .
    12
    case” involving defendants experiencing psychoses. United States v.
    Watson, 
    793 F.3d 416
    , 425 (4th Cir. 2015).
    * * *
    For these reasons, I would vacate the district court’s Sell order and
    remand the case with instructions to deny the government’s motion for
    involuntary medication.
    13