United States v. Almanza-Vigil , 912 F.3d 1310 ( 2019 )


Menu:
  •                                                                                  FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                                Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                        January 7, 2019
    Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                            Clerk of Court
    _________________________________
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                                          No. 17-2007
    OSCAR ALMANZA-VIGIL,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    _________________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of New Mexico
    (D.C. No. 2:15-CR-02605-RB-1)
    _________________________________
    James N. Langell, Assistant Federal Public Defender (Stephen P. McCue, Federal Public
    Defender, with him on the briefs), Office of the Federal Public Defender, Las Cruces,
    New Mexico, for Appellant.
    Marisa A. Ong, Assistant United States Attorney (James D. Tierney, Acting United States
    Attorney, with her on the brief), Office of the United States Attorney, Las Cruces, New
    Mexico, for Appellee.
    _________________________________
    Before PHILLIPS, KELLY, and MURPHY, Circuit Judges.
    _________________________________
    PHILLIPS, Circuit Judge.
    _________________________________
    The Immigration and Naturalization Act (INA) defines “aggravated felony” to
    include “illicit trafficking in a controlled substance,” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B),
    making removal from this country “a virtual certainty” for a noncitizen convicted of
    such a crime, Sessions v. Dimaya, 
    138 S. Ct. 1204
    , 1211 (2017). The INA imposes
    serious consequences on a noncitizen convicted of an aggravated felony: (1) he
    becomes deportable, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(iii); (2) he loses the ability to obtain
    discretionary relief, like cancellation of removal, 
    id.
     § 1229b(a)(3), or voluntary
    departure, id. § 1229c(a)(1); and (3) he is subject to expedited removal proceedings,
    with no immigration judge present, id. § 1228(a)(1).
    That helps explain the stakes for Oscar Almanza-Vigil. In 2007, he pleaded
    guilty in Colorado state court to “selling or distributing” methamphetamine in
    violation of Colorado Revised Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a) (2006), for which he
    received a four-year prison sentence. In 2009, when the state paroled him,
    Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) initiated expedited removal
    proceedings against him, declaring that he had committed an aggravated felony. With
    that designation, he had no right to an administrative hearing before an immigration
    judge. Compare 8 U.S.C. § 1229a (“An immigration judge shall conduct proceedings
    for deciding the inadmissibility or deportability of an alien.”), with 
    8 U.S.C. § 1228
    (b)(1), and 
    8 C.F.R. § 238.1
    (b)(2)(i) (allowing the government to put
    aggravated felons in expedited removal proceedings without a hearing before an
    immigration judge). Within the week, the Department of Homeland Security had
    issued a final administrative removal order, and ICE agents had sent Almanza-Vigil
    back across the border to Mexico. Six years later, border-patrol agents found
    Almanza-Vigil in the New Mexico desert. Then, charged with illegal reentry,
    Almanza-Vigil moved to dismiss the indictment by collaterally attacking his previous
    2
    removal order and arguing, for the first time, that he never committed an aggravated
    felony.
    Now reviewing the district court’s judgment convicting Almanza-Vigil for
    illegal reentry, we must return to 2009, when he left state prison, and ask how he
    could have avoided removal. To prevail here, Almanza-Vigil must show not only that
    his Colorado felony was not an aggravated felony, but that misclassifying it as one
    prejudiced him. To show the required prejudice, he must show that the
    misclassification rendered the entry of the 2009 removal order fundamentally unfair.
    Absent that, his appeal fails. See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d).
    For the reasons detailed below, we conclude that Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado
    felony does not fit the INA’s definition of an aggravated felony. But we also
    conclude that he failed to demonstrate a reasonable likelihood of avoiding removal
    but for the erroneous classification of his conviction. The INA therefore parries a
    collateral attack on Almanza-Vigil’s previous removal order. 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d). So,
    exercising our jurisdiction to review the district court’s final orders, 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
    , we affirm that court’s judgment of conviction.1
    1
    The INA curbs our jurisdiction to review the removal order itself. Though the
    Act grants federal appellate courts exclusive authority to review final orders of
    removal, it also carves from that authority our jurisdiction to review “any final order
    of removal entered against an alien who is removable by reason of having committed
    a criminal offense” covered by the statute, including an aggravated felony. 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(1), (a)(2)(C). Irrespective of statutory bars on our jurisdiction, however,
    we retain the “authority to determine whether the factual conditions for the bar are
    present.” Shepherd v. Holder, 
    678 F.3d 1171
    , 1180 (10th Cir. 2012). Moreover,
    notwithstanding 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(C)’s ban on reviewing orders to remove
    3
    BACKGROUND
    Born in Chihuahua in 1984, Almanza-Vigil is a Mexican citizen. In 1993,
    eight-year-old Almanza-Vigil and his family trekked across the Mexico–United
    States border, without documents and without government inspection, and settled in
    Colorado. Almanza-Vigil never acquired legal immigration status, but he grew up in
    this country, learning English, graduating from high school, finding work at a dairy
    farm, and eventually fathering a son.
    In 2006, when Almanza-Vigil was twenty-one years old, the district attorney
    in Fort Morgan, Colorado, charged him with six violations of the state’s controlled-
    substances act, all felonies. Counts 1, 2, and 3 of the criminal complaint charge three,
    identical crimes: that “[o]n or [a]bout” September 15, 20, and 27 of that year,
    Almanza-Vigil “unlawfully, feloniously, and knowingly sold or distributed
    METHAMPHETAMINE, a schedule II controlled substance, in violation of section
    18-18-405(1),(2)(a)(I)(A), [Colorado Revised Statutes].” Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 3
    (bolding removed). Likewise, counts 4, 5, and 6 charge him with possessing
    methamphetamine “[o]n or [a]bout” the same dates. 
    Id.
     vol. 2 at 3–4.
    At the time, Colorado Revised Statutes § 18-18-405 provided, in pertinent
    part:
    “criminal aliens”—or any other statutory (or non-statutory) limit on our
    jurisdiction—the INA preserves our jurisdiction to review constitutional and legal
    issues. See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
    (a)(2)(D). So, even within the INA’s (restrictive) judicial-
    review scheme, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1252
     leaves us the authority to decide whether Almanza-
    Vigil committed an aggravated felony.
    4
    (1)(a) Except as authorized by [other provisions of state law], it is
    unlawful for any person knowingly to manufacture, dispense, sell,
    distribute, possess, or to possess with intent to manufacture, dispense,
    sell, or distribute a controlled substance; or induce, attempt to induce, or
    conspire with one or more other persons, to manufacture, dispense, sell,
    distribute, possess, or possess with intent to manufacture, dispense, sell,
    or distribute a controlled substance; or possess one or more chemicals or
    supplies or equipment with intent to manufacture a controlled substance.
    ....
    (2)(a) Except as is otherwise provided in subsection (2.3) of this section
    for possession offenses not including possession with the intent to
    distribute involving one gram or less of any material, compound, mixture,
    or preparation that contains any quantity of a schedule I through IV
    controlled substance, . . . any person who violates any of the provisions
    of subsection (1) of this section:
    (I) In the case of a controlled substance listed in schedule I or II of part 2
    of this article, commits:
    (A) A class 3 felony; except that a person commits a class 4 felony if such
    violation is based on the possession of a controlled substance listed in
    schedule II unless otherwise provided in paragraph (a) of subsection (3)
    of this section[.]
    ....
    (2.3)(a) Any person who commits the offense of possession in violation
    of the provisions of subsection (1) of this section by possessing any
    material, compound, mixture, or preparation, weighing one gram or less
    that contains any quantity of a controlled substance listed in schedules I
    through IV of part 2 of this article commits:
    (I) A class 6 felony[.]
    
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-18-405
     (2006).2
    2
    Since 2006, the Colorado legislature has revised § 18-18-405 several times.
    See, e.g., H.B. 10-1352, 67th Gen. Assemb., 2d Reg. Sess, ch. 259, 
    2010 Colo. Sess. Laws 1162
    , 1164 (striking simple possession from § 18-18-405(1)(a)’s list of
    proscriptions).
    5
    In August 2007, Almanza-Vigil pleaded guilty to count 1, “selling or
    distributing” methamphetamine. In exchange, the state dismissed the remaining five
    charges. The state court’s “sentence order” reflects this bargain. Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 5.
    The order shows Almanza-Vigil’s “Plea of Guilty” to count 1, “18-18-405(1),
    (2)(a)(I)(A) – Controlled subst-Distribute s,” a class 3 felony, and lists counts 2, 3, 4,
    5, and 6—two more distribution charges (also class 3 felonies) and three possession
    charges (two class 4 felonies and one class 6 felony)—as “Dism by DA.” Suppl. R.
    vol. 2 at 5. The court sentenced Almanza-Vigil to serve four years in state prison.
    Two years passed. Then, prison officials informed Almanza-Vigil (whose
    parole was approaching) that the federal government had issued an immigration hold.
    “[Y]ou’re going to be going to Mexico,” he remembers being told. R. vol. 1 at
    154:25. And from that point on, he claims, he “never thought” that he would be able
    to challenge his removal. R. vol. 1 at 155:1.
    In April 2009, the state released Almanza-Vigil to ICE agents, who detained
    him pending his removal. The Department of Homeland Security had decided that
    Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado conviction met 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B)’s definition of
    an “aggravated felony,” making him deportable under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(iii)
    and, because he lacked permanent-resident status, subjecting him to expedited
    6
    removal proceedings under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1228
    (b) and 
    8 C.F.R. § 238.1
    (b), (d), without
    a hearing before an immigration judge.3
    The record on appeal contains the two forms that the government claims to
    have given Almanza-Vigil during these proceedings: a two-page Notice of Intent
    (exhibit 4) and a one-page Certificate of Service (exhibit 5). These forms are, in the
    district court’s words, “a mess.” R. vol. 1 at 354 ¶ 10.
    Exhibit 4 is titled, “Notice of Intent to Issue a Final Administrative Removal
    Order.” Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 6. Below that title, the Notice is addressed to “Oscar
    ALAMANZA-VIGIL” (a misspelling repeated on the next page). 
    Id. at 6, 7
    . The
    Notice then sets forth the “Charge”: “You are deportable under . . . 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(iii), as amended, because you have been convicted of an aggravated
    felony . . . .” Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 6. And it explains “Your Rights and
    3
    In expedited removal proceedings, a noncitizen with an aggravated-felony
    conviction is “conclusively presumed to be deportable,” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1228
    (c), and
    ineligible for discretionary relief from removal, 
    id.
     § 1228(b)(5). Still, the expedited-
    removal statute and its accompanying regulations protect noncitizens’ rights to
    procedural due process. See id. § 1228(b)(4). Section 1228(b)(3) requires the
    government to wait fourteen days after issuing the final removal order and before
    executing it to allow the noncitizen “an opportunity to apply for judicial review” of
    the order—unless the noncitizen waives this waiting period. Under § 1228(b)(3), the
    government also must give the noncitizen reasonable notice of the charges against
    him, as well as an opportunity to rebut them, and allow the noncitizen “the privilege
    of being represented (at no expense to the government)” by counsel. Id.
    § 1228(b)(4)(A)–(C). Agency regulations add more specific mandates: A noncitizen
    must be served with “Form I-851, Notice of Intent to Issue a Final Administrative
    Deportation Order,” which must inform the noncitizen of his rights to representation
    and to judicial review, among other rights, and provide him with a list of free legal
    services. 
    8 C.F.R. § 238.1
    (b)(1)–(2).
    7
    Responsibilities,” including (1) that “you may contact legal counsel from the list of
    available services provided to you” (a list that the government didn’t provide) and
    (2) that if you want to exercise your rights to rebut the charge or to seek judicial
    review, the government must receive your written response within ten days. 
    Id.
     But
    the Notice lacks a designated space for Almanza-Vigil’s signature. And while the
    Notice’s first page claims to be “Form I-851,” the next page identifies itself as “Form
    I-831 Continuation Page” and purports to be the third of three pages. 
    Id. at 7
    . Above
    this puzzling footer, the Continuation Page contains a typewritten paragraph alleging,
    “You were[] . . . convicted . . . for the offense of, Controlled Substance-Distribute
    Sch. 2; to wit: Methamphetamine in violation of C.R.S. 18-18-405(1), (2)(a)(I)(A) for
    which the term of imprisonment was 4 years.” 
    Id.
    Exhibit 5, the Certificate of Service, begins with an ICE agent’s signed
    statement: “I served this Notice of Intent. I have determined that the person served
    with this document is the individual named on the other side of the form.” 
    Id. at 8
    .
    (The contents of the “other side” remain a mystery: the district court deduced only
    that “the other side” was probably not the Certificate, based on the government’s
    introduction of the Notice and the Certificate as separate exhibits.) Beneath two
    checked boxes—one admitting “the allegations and charge in this Notice of Intent,”
    another waiving “the right to remain in the United States . . . to apply for judicial
    review”—the Certificate has three lines: on the first is a hand-drawn “x” and
    Almanza-Vigil’s signature; on the second, someone printed “Oscar Almanza”; and on
    the third is the date, April 6, 2009. 
    Id.
    8
    In the government’s view, Almanza-Vigil knowingly waived his right to
    contest his removal by signing the Certificate. So, on April 6 (the same day that he
    signed it), the Department of Homeland Security issued a final administrative
    removal order declaring (1) that Almanza-Vigil is not a U.S. citizen, (2) that he has
    never been lawfully admitted for permanent residence to the United States, and
    (3) that he has been convicted of an aggravated felony defined in 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B). ICE executed the order a week later, on April 13, and an
    immigration official witnessed Almanza-Vigil walk across the border near El Paso,
    Texas, and into Mexico.
    Six years later, in April 2015, a set of footprints in the New Mexico desert led
    border-patrol agents to Almanza-Vigil, who was hiding in a mesquite bush near the
    border fence. The agents arrested him, suspecting that he’d entered illegally. After
    his processing revealed the 2009 removal order, prosecutors filed a criminal
    complaint in the U.S. District Court for the District of New Mexico, alleging that
    Almanza-Vigil had reentered the country in violation of an outstanding removal order
    that had followed an aggravated-felony conviction. Three months later, a grand jury
    returned an indictment charging him with illegal reentry in violation of 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (a) and (b).
    Almanza-Vigil moved to dismiss the indictment by attacking his 2009 removal
    order—the government’s proof that he had reentered illegally (a felony under
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    ) rather than merely entered improperly (a misdemeanor under
    § 1325). The 2009 removal order was “improperly issued,” he claimed, because he
    9
    had never been convicted of an aggravated felony. R. vol. 1 at 54. Had the
    government realized this, he argued, he would not have been put in expedited
    removal proceedings, and he could have applied for (and likely received)
    discretionary relief from removal. But the district court denied the motion and
    foreclosed Almanza-Vigil’s collateral attack. Twice, Almanza-Vigil asked the court
    to reconsider this ruling, but twice, the court refused.
    On December 14, 2015, after denying Almanza-Vigil’s first motion to
    reconsider, the court held a bench trial. “[B]ased upon the undisputed testimony” that
    he had returned to the United States without permission after being deported, the
    court found Almanza-Vigil guilty of violating 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (a) and (b). Four
    weeks later, after denying his second motion to reconsider, the court entered
    judgment and sentenced Almanza-Vigil to 635 days in prison (approximately time
    served—he had been in custody since his arrest on April 19, 2015).4 He immediately
    appealed.
    DISCUSSION
    Almanza-Vigil challenges the district court’s refusal to dismiss the illegal-
    reentry indictment. On appeal, as in the district court, he disputes the validity of his
    2009 removal order by arguing that it was entered without due process. When a
    noncitizen attacks the constitutionality of a previous removal proceeding in this way,
    he presents a mixed question of law and fact that we review de novo. United States v.
    4
    After his release, he returned to Mexico.
    10
    Aguirre-Tello, 
    353 F.3d 1199
    , 1204 (10th Cir. 2004). But before addressing the
    merits of Almanza-Vigil’s appeal, we must narrow the question. To do so, we weave
    together the appeal’s statutory and procedural context.
    A.     How Can a Noncitizen Prosecuted for Illegal Reentry Collaterally
    Attack the Underlying Removal Order?
    When the government prosecutes a noncitizen for illegal reentry, it typically
    must prove two things: (1) that the noncitizen left the United States with an
    outstanding order of removal against him and (2) that afterward, the noncitizen
    entered, tried to enter, or was found in the United States. 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (a).
    When the government offers a previous removal order as evidence of the first
    element, the Fifth Amendment protects the noncitizen’s right to challenge that order,
    even years after the time for appeal has passed and the order has become final.
    United States v. Mendoza-Lopez, 
    481 U.S. 828
    , 837–39 (1987); accord United
    States v. Adame-Orozco, 
    607 F.3d 647
    , 651 (10th Cir. 2010). Congress codified this
    right in 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d), subject to a noncitizen’s meeting three conditions. See
    Adame-Orozco, 
    607 F.3d at 651
    . To collaterally attack a previous removal order, the
    noncitizen must show (1) that he exhausted all administrative remedies available to
    contest the previous removal order, (2) that the previous removal proceedings
    deprived him of the opportunity to seek judicial review, and (3) that the previous
    order’s entry was fundamentally unfair. 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d).
    Here, the district court concluded that, although Almanza-Vigil could satisfy
    the first two conditions (administrative exhaustion and denial of judicial review) he
    11
    could not demonstrate the third condition, that the entry of the 2009 removal order
    was fundamentally unfair. That conclusion rested on two, alternate grounds: first, that
    the government had correctly classified Almanza-Vigil’s conviction as an aggravated
    felony; and second, that the government’s decision to classify his conviction as an
    aggravated felony had not prejudiced him. And because a collateral attack can’t
    survive the failure to meet any of § 1326(d)’s three conditions, the district court
    rejected Almanza-Vigil’s challenge to the 2009 order’s validity.
    So the appeal begins with one question: Does Almanza-Vigil’s conviction fit
    the INA’s definition of an aggravated felony? Because we answer no, the appeal
    presents a second question: Did misclassifying the conviction so prejudice Almanza-
    Vigil that the entry of his previous removal order was fundamentally unfair? Because
    we again answer no, our inquiry ends there—we can uphold the dismissal of his
    collateral attack without reaching § 1326(d)’s other conditions.
    B.     Is “Selling or Distributing” Methamphetamine an Aggravated
    Felony?
    The parties dispute whether Almanza-Vigil’s conviction for “selling or
    distributing” methamphetamine, see 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-18-405
    (a) (2006), qualifies
    as an aggravated felony under the INA—specifically, whether it meets the definition
    in 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B): “illicit trafficking in a controlled substance (as defined
    in [
    21 U.S.C. § 802
    ]), including a drug trafficking crime (as defined in [
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)]).” We first explain how to compare a state offense to the INA’s definition
    12
    of an aggravated felony. Then, we apply those principles to resolve the parties’
    dispute.
    1.     The Categorical and Modified Categorical Approaches to
    Classifying Offenses
    “When the government alleges that a state conviction qualifies as an
    ‘aggravated felony’ under the INA, we generally employ a ‘categorical approach’ to
    determine whether the state offense is comparable to an offense listed in the INA.”
    Moncrieffe v. Holder, 
    569 U.S. 184
    , 190 (2013) (citing Nijhawan v. Holder, 
    557 U.S. 29
    , 33–38 (2009); Gonzales v. Duenas-Alvarez, 
    549 U.S. 183
    , 185–87 (2007)). The
    categorical approach asks whether the state offense’s definition matches “the
    ‘generic’ federal definition of a corresponding aggravated felony.” 
    Id.
     (quoting
    Duenas-Alvarez, 
    549 U.S. at 186
    ). The state offense fits the generic offense only if it
    “necessarily” includes the generic federal offense. 
    Id.
     (quoting Shepard v. United
    States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    , 24 (2005) (plurality opinion)). We therefore presume that the
    state conviction rested on “‘the least of th[e] acts’ criminalized,” then determine
    whether the generic federal offense encompasses “even those acts.” 
    Id.
     at 190–91
    (alteration in original) (quoting Johnson v. United States, 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 137 (2010)).
    “Whether the noncitizen’s actual conduct involved such facts ‘is quite
    irrelevant.’” 
    Id. at 190
     (quoting United States ex rel. Guarino v. Uhl, 
    107 F.2d 399
    ,
    400 (2d Cir. 1939)). The categorical approach focuses on an offense’s elements—the
    “constituent parts” of its legal definition, “the things the ‘prosecution must prove to
    sustain a conviction.’” Mathis v. United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 2243
    , 2248 (2016)
    13
    (quoting Elements of a Crime, Black’s Law Dictionary (10th ed. 2014)). If the
    defendant goes to trial, then the elements are “what the jury must find beyond a
    reasonable doubt.” 
    Id.
     (citing Richardson, 526 U.S. at 817). And if the defendant
    pleads guilty, then the elements are what he “necessarily admits.” Id. (citing
    McCarthy v. United States, 
    394 U.S. 456
    , 466 (1969)). Elements are abstract, in
    contrast to “brute facts”—“mere real-world things[] extraneous to the crime’s legal
    requirements,” which “need neither be found by a jury nor admitted by a defendant.”
    
    Id.
     (first quoting Richardson v. United States, 
    526 U.S. 813
    , 817 (1999); and then
    citing Fact, Black’s Law Dictionary (10th ed. 2014)).
    When a state statute defines a single crime with a single—that is, indivisible—
    set of elements, the categorical approach is (relatively) “straightforward”: just “line[]
    up that crime’s elements alongside those of the generic offense and see[] if they
    match.” 
    Id.
     But this comparison gets more complicated when a state statute is
    divisible—that is, when it creates multiple crimes by listing multiple, alternative
    elements. Id. at 2249.5
    When a statute lists alternative elements, the modified categorical approach
    allows us to glimpse “a limited class of documents” from the previous conviction—
    the indictment, the jury instructions, the plea agreement or colloquy—so that we can
    5
    Mathis gives the example of a California law against “‘the lawful or the
    unlawful entry’ of a premises with intent to steal.” 136 S. Ct. at 2249. This law
    creates “two offenses, one more serious than the other.” Id. But only the more serious
    offense, involving unlawful entry, matches generic federal burglary. Id.
    14
    figure out which alternative “was integral to the defendant’s conviction (that is,
    which was necessarily found or admitted).” Id. (citing Shepard, 
    544 U.S. at 26
    ;
    Taylor, 495 U.S. at 602). Once we’ve discerned which crime, comprising which
    elements, the noncitizen was convicted of, we can “compare that crime, as the
    categorical approach commands, with the relevant generic offense.” Id. But “the
    modified categorical approach serves—and serves solely—as a tool to identify the
    elements of a crime of conviction when a statute’s disjunctive phrasing renders one
    (or more) of them opaque.” Id. at 2253 (citing Descamps v. United States, 
    570 U.S. 254
    , 263–64 (2013)). We can’t “repurpose” it to explore whether a conviction, “even
    though for a too-broad crime, rested on facts (or otherwise said, involved means) that
    also could have satisfied the elements of a generic offense.” 
    Id. at 2254
    .
    So, when we encounter a statute that lists alternatives, we face a threshold
    question: does the list enumerate alternative elements, which would allow us to use
    the modified categorical approach, or alternative means, which would not?
    In Mathis, a state-court decision “definitively answer[ed]” the question
    whether 
    Iowa Code § 702.12
    , which prohibits unlawful entry into “any building,
    structure, [or] land, water, or air vehicle,” creates alternative crimes or illustrates
    alternative methods of committing the same crime. 
    Id. at 2256
    . In State v. Duncan,
    the Iowa Supreme Court held that a jury need not unanimously agree on the burgled
    premises—there, either a boat or a marina—to convict the defendant of burglary;
    each location was an “alternative method of committing a single crime.” 
    312 N.W.2d 519
    , 523 (Iowa 1981). Applying Duncan’s logic, Mathis concluded that the Iowa
    15
    statute’s list of locations “[laid] out alternative ways of satisfying a single, locational
    element.” Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at 2250, 2256.6
    In other cases, the statute itself might resolve the means-or-elements question.
    Id. at 2256. If each alternative carries a different penalty, then to comply with
    Apprendi v. New Jersey, 
    530 U.S. 466
    , 490 (2000), the jury must unanimously agree
    on one of them, meaning that the alternatives must be elements. Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at
    2256 (citing, among other state statutes, 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-4-203
     (2015), which
    distinguishes second-degree burglary of a dwelling, a class 3 felony, from second-
    degree burglary of any other “building or occupied structure,” a class 4 felony).
    Other state laws may specify the contents of a charging document: what things
    prosecutors must charge (elements) and what things they need not charge (means). 
    Id.
    (citing 
    Cal. Penal Code § 952
     (West 2008)).
    In still other cases, though, state law might fail “to provide clear answers.” 
    Id.
    Then, the modified categorical approach permits us to glimpse the record of the
    previous conviction to determine whether the listed items are elements of the offense.
    
    Id.
     at 2256–57 (quoting Rendon v. Holder, 
    782 F.3d 466
    , 473–74 (9th Cir. 2015)
    (Kozinski, J., dissenting from the denial of rehearing en banc)). If these documents
    reference one alternative “to the exclusion of all others,” that indicates the statute
    6
    Compared to generic burglary, which protects any “building or other
    structure,” Iowa burglary reached more places, like vehicles. Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at
    2250 (quoting Taylor, 495 U.S. at 598). And because the offenses’ locational
    elements didn’t line up, Mathis concluded that the two did not categorically match.
    See id. at 2256–57.
    16
    lists several, alternative elements, each defining a separate crime. Id. at 2257. Then—
    and only then—can we use the documents to identify the crime of conviction. Id.
    “Conversely,” though, if the indictment and jury instructions reiterate the statutory
    list (“building, structure, or vehicle”) or use “a single umbrella term” (like
    “premises”), that indicates the statute lists alternative means of fulfilling one
    element. Id. And if so, we have “no call to decide which of the statutory alternatives
    was at issue in the earlier prosecution.” Id. at 2256.
    Next, we consider what this means for Almanza-Vigil.
    2.     Does Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado Felony Categorically Match
    an Aggravated Felony Under the INA?
    Almanza-Vigil argues that Colorado Revised Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a)
    (2006) sweeps too broadly to fit the generic federal offense at issue here—the
    aggravated felony of “illicit trafficking in a controlled substance (as defined in
    [
    21 U.S.C. § 802
    ]), including a drug trafficking crime (as defined in [
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)].” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B).
    The generic offense encompasses any offense (state or federal) that “proscribes
    conduct punishable as a felony” under the Controlled Substances Act (CSA), Pub. L.
    No. 91-513, 
    84 Stat. 1242
     (1970) (codified as amended at 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 801
    –904).
    Lopez v. Gonzales, 
    549 U.S. 47
    , 60 (2006); see also Moncrieffe, 
    569 U.S. at 188
    .7 By
    7
    To explain this conclusion, Moncrieffe noted that 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(2)
    defines a “drug trafficking crime” as “any felony punishable under” three federal
    statutes, including the CSA, and that 
    18 U.S.C. § 3559
    (a)(5) classifies an offense as a
    “felony” if “the maximum term of imprisonment authorized” is more than a year.
    17
    comparison, the state statute that Almanza-Vigil pleaded guilty to violating, Colorado
    Revised Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a) (2006), makes it unlawful “to manufacture,
    dispense, sell, distribute, possess, or to possess with intent to manufacture, dispense,
    sell, or distribute a controlled substance” (among other acts). As even the government
    concedes, the least of the acts criminalized—simple possession—is not a felony
    under the CSA. See 
    21 U.S.C. § 844
    (a) (setting a ceiling of a year’s imprisonment for
    a defendant’s first possession conviction); accord Lopez, 
    549 U.S. at 53
    . So, if the
    statute is indivisible, then Almanza-Vigil is correct—it doesn’t match the generic
    offense.
    But the government contends that the Colorado statute is divisible and that,
    under the modified categorical approach, Almanza-Vigil pleaded guilty to a crime the
    government terms “distribution of methamphetamine,” which it claims “clearly
    constitutes” the generic federal crime of illicit drug trafficking. Appellee’s Answer
    Br. at 26. We disagree.
    Last year, two Tenth Circuit cases considered the scope of a “controlled
    substance offense,” one of two categories of previous convictions that enhance the
    sentence of a “career offender” under the federal sentencing guidelines. United
    States v. McKibbon, 
    878 F.3d 967
    , 971–76 (10th Cir. 2017); United States v.
    Madkins, 
    866 F.3d 1136
    , 1144–48 (10th Cir. 2017); see also U.S. Sentencing
    Guidelines Manual § 4B1.1(a) (U.S. Sentencing Comm’n 2018). Like the INA’s
    definition of a drug-trafficking offense, the guidelines’ definition of a “controlled
    substance offense” encompasses all state or federal offenses (1) that are punishable
    18
    by more than a year’s imprisonment and (2) that proscribe the “manufacture, import,
    export, distribution, or dispensing of a controlled substance,” or the “aiding[,] . . .
    abetting, conspiring, [or] attempting to commit such offenses.” U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(b)
    & cmt. n.1. To this definition, Madkins and McKibbon hitched the CSA’s definition
    of distribution: “delivery” of the controlled substance. 
    21 U.S.C. § 802
    (11); see also
    McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 972; Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1144.
    Both decisions then compared that definition to the defendants’ previous
    convictions: Madkins’s convictions for the Kansas crimes of “possession with intent
    to sell, deliver, or distribute” cocaine and marijuana, and McKibbon’s conviction for
    the Colorado crime at issue here (albeit a newer iteration, which had dropped simple
    possession from its list of proscribed acts). Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1145 (quoting
    
    Kan. Stat. Ann. §§ 65-4161
    (a), 65-4163(a)(3) (2001)); McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 971–
    74 (citing 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-18-405
    (1)(a) (2014)). The McKibbon court noted that
    Colorado’s uniform controlled-substances act defines a “sale” to include “a barter, an
    exchange, or a gift, or an offer therefor.” 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-18-403
    (1) (emphasis
    added); McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 971. Likewise, the Madkins court observed that
    Kansas law defines a “sale” to include an “offer to sell.” 866 F.3d at 1145.
    Incorporating each state’s definition of a “sale” into its proscription on “selling or
    distributing” a controlled substance, both Madkins and McKibbon determined that the
    states’ drug laws swept in more conduct—including offers to sell a controlled
    substance—than fit within the guidelines’ definition of a “controlled substance
    offense.” McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 972; Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1145–46 (citing United
    19
    States v. Hinkle, 
    832 F.3d 569
    , 576–77 (5th Cir. 2017) (concluding that a similar
    Texas statute was broader than the guidelines’ definition); United States v. Savage,
    
    542 F.3d 959
    , 966 (2d Cir. 2008) (concluding that a similar Connecticut statute was
    likewise “overly inclusive”)). And because the elements didn’t line up, there was a
    categorical mismatch.
    That was so, Madkins and McKibbon concluded, even though a “controlled
    substance offense” includes an attempt to distribute the controlled substance. See
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2 cmt. n.1. As Madkins explained, “an attempt to commit a crime
    requires the intent to commit the crime and overt acts in furtherance of that intent.”
    866 F.3d at 1147 (quoting United States v. Taylor, 
    413 F.3d 1146
    , 1155 (10th Cir.
    2005)). Yet a person can offer to sell a controlled substance (an overt act) without
    intending to complete the sale. 
    Id.
     Stated otherwise, an offer to sell can be fraudulent,
    “such as when one offers to sell the Brooklyn Bridge.” 
    Id.
     (quoting Savage, 
    542 F.3d at 965
    ). Unless we read in limiting language (which is out of bounds during statutory
    construction), a state law that proscribes all “offers” to sell a controlled substance
    covers both the bona fide and the fraudulent. And because a fraudulent offer lacks
    “the intent to sell or distribute” that an attempt requires, a conviction for “selling or
    distributing” a controlled substance (in any state that defines “sale” to include all
    offers) criminalizes a broader swath of conduct than the guidelines’ definition of a
    “controlled substance offense.” Id. at 1148.
    Madkins and (four months later) McKibbon thus both concluded that the
    guidelines’ definition of a “controlled substance offense” excludes convictions under
    20
    state statutes that proscribe “offers” to sell a controlled substance. McKibbon,
    878 F.3d at 972; Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1145. The least of the acts criminalized under
    such a state statute is a fraudulent offer to sell a controlled substance, which does not
    constitute a “controlled substance offense” under the guidelines. Cf. Moncrieffe,
    
    569 U.S. at 191
     (quoting Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 137
    ). So, “the two are not a
    categorical match.” Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1147.
    In reaching this conclusion, McKibbon addressed but rejected the
    government’s contention (which it raises again here) that Colorado Revised Statutes
    § 18-18-405(1)(a) is divisible, “setting forth multiple elements of multiple criminal
    offenses, including manufacturing, dispensing, distributing, selling, or offering to sell
    a controlled substance.” 878 F.3d at 974. If the government’s argument were correct,
    then the court could have used the modified categorical approach to determine the
    offense to which McKibbon had pleaded guilty (and then compared that offense to
    the guidelines’ definition). Id. But the court deemed the statute indivisible based on
    the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision in People v. Abiodun, 
    111 P.3d 462
     (Colo.
    2005). McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 974–75. As Mathis suggested it might, the Colorado
    court’s decision definitively answered the elements-or-means question—and its
    answer was “means.” Id. at 974 (citing Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at 2256).
    21
    In Abiodun, the Colorado Supreme Court held that Colorado Revised Statutes
    § 18-18-4058 defines a single offense for double-jeopardy purposes:
    Nothing in the specific language of the statute or the history of its
    enactment suggests an intent to create a separate offense for each
    proscribed act. On the contrary, the scope and structure of the proscriptive
    provision, combined with sentencing provisions differentiating
    punishments on the basis of the quantum of drugs (rather than the act)
    involved, strongly points to the creation of a single crime, the gravamen
    of which is preventing the unauthorized delivery of a “particular quantity
    of a particular contraband substance.” . . . . Rather than completely
    separate offenses, the statute strongly suggests an intent to “criminalize
    successive stages of a single undertaking,” . . . “encompass[ing] every act
    and activity which could lead to the proliferation of drug traffic.”
    111 P.3d at 466–67 (alteration in original) (citations omitted) (first quoting Lopez v.
    State, 
    108 S.W.3d 293
    , 299 (Tex. Crim. App.2003); then quoting United States v.
    Mendoza, 
    902 F.2d 693
    , 697 (8th Cir. 1990); and then quoting United States v.
    Gomez, 
    593 F.3d 210
    , 213 (3d Cir. 1979)). In McKibbon’s view, Abiodun squarely
    addressed divisibility by “holding that the state legislature intended to create a single
    unitary offense when it enacted the ‘alternatively-phrased’ § 18-18-405(1)(a).”
    McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 975 (quoting Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at 2249). Not only that,
    McKibbon added, Abiodun interpreted the Colorado statute to dole out the same
    punishments regardless of “whether a defendant manufactured or distributed or
    offered to sell a controlled substance.” Id. (citing Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at 2256).
    8
    Abiodun reviewed convictions that occurred sometime between 2001 and
    2003, when the drug laws were the same as in 2006 (Almanza-Vigil’s day)—and
    when § 18-18-405(1)(a) proscribed simple possession. See People v. Abiodun,
    
    87 P.3d 164
    , 165 (Colo. App. 2003). The Colorado legislature struck simple
    possession only in 2010. See supra note 2.
    22
    Yet even if Abiodun’s message on divisibility were uncertain, Mathis’s final
    suggestion—“if state law fails to provide clear answers”—allowed the McKibbon
    court to “peek” at the record of the previous conviction. Id. at 976 (quoting Mathis,
    136 S. Ct. at 2256–57). And there, the court saw that McKibbon had pleaded guilty to
    violating Colorado Revised Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a) by “either selling or
    distributing heroin.” Id. So under Mathis, the court concluded, McKibbon’s previous
    record indicated that “selling or distributing” a controlled substance were alternative
    means of committing a single, indivisible offense. Id. (citing Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at
    2248).9
    Madkins and McKibbon thus crafted a general rule: if state law criminalizes
    fraudulent offers to sell a controlled substance, then a conviction under that state law
    is a categorical mismatch for the guidelines’ generic “controlled substance offense.”
    Here, we take their logic another step, into the immigration context. Like the generic
    “controlled substance offense” under the guidelines, the generic offense of “illicit
    trafficking in a controlled substance” under the INA encompasses all state offenses
    that are felonies under the CSA. Compare Lopez, 
    569 U.S. at 60
     (defining the scope
    of “illicit trafficking in a controlled substance” under 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B)),
    9
    Madkins also addressed divisibility, but it deemed the Kansas statutes
    divisible. 866 F.3d at 1145 (discussing 
    Kan. Stat. Ann. §§ 65-4151
    (a),
    65-4163(a)(3)). That didn’t matter in the end, though, because Madkins had pleaded
    guilty to possession with intent to sell cocaine and marijuana. 
    Id.
     And the court
    determined that under Kansas law, these offenses covered possession with the intent
    to offer to sell cocaine and marijuana. See 
    id.
    23
    with McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 972, and Madkins, 866 F.3d at 1144 (defining the scope
    of a “controlled substance offense” under U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(b)). And according to
    Madkins and McKibbon, the felony offenses of distribution and attempted
    distribution under the CSA exclude fraudulent offers to sell. See 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 802
    (11), 802(8), 841(a)(1) (prohibiting only the actual or attempted delivery of a
    controlled substance). So, a state statute that proscribes all offers to sell a controlled
    substance, including fraudulent ones, criminalizes more conduct than (and is a
    categorical mismatch for) the INA’s definition of “illicit trafficking in a controlled
    substance.” See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B).
    As for the state statute at issue here, McKibbon further tells us that Colorado
    Revised Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a) is indivisible—at least to the extent that “selling
    or distributing” a controlled substance are alternative means of committing a single
    offense. McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 974; see also id. at 976. McKibbon thus specifically
    rejected the argument that the government makes here: that we can use the modified
    categorical approach to define Almanza-Vigil’s crime of conviction more narrowly,
    as “distributing” methamphetamine. See id. at 974–76.
    And like in McKibbon, even if we do use the modified categorical approach to
    “peek” at the record of Almanza-Vigil’s previous conviction, we see that he was
    convicted of “selling or distributing” methamphetamine. Of the six counts in the
    complaint, he pleaded guilty to the first:
    COUNT 1 - DISTRIBUTION OF A CONTROLLED SUBSTANCE -
    SCHEDULE II (F-3)
    24
    On or About September 15, 2006, OSCAR ALMANZA-VIGIL
    unlawfully, feloniously, and knowingly sold or distributed
    METHAMPHETAMINE, a schedule II controlled substance; in violation
    of section 18-18-405(1),(2)(a)(I)(A), C.R.S.
    Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 3 (bolding removed). And according to Mathis, when an
    indictment reiterates the statute’s alternatives (here: “sold or distributed”), it’s “as
    clear an indication as any that each alternative is only a possible means of
    commission, not an element that the prosecutor must prove to a jury beyond a
    reasonable doubt.” 136 S. Ct. at 2257. Nor does it matter that when pressed for space,
    the state-court judgment labeled the charge “Controlled subst-Distribute.” Suppl. R.
    vol. 2 at 5. The modified categorical approach limits our record inquiry “to the terms
    of the charging document, the terms of a plea agreement or transcript of
    colloquy . . . , or to some comparable judicial record of this information.” Shepard,
    
    544 U.S. at 26
    ; see also Mathis, 136 S. Ct. at 2249. And here, the charging language
    in count one shows that Almanza-Vigil pleaded guilty to “selling or distributing”
    methamphetamine. Suppl. R. vol. 2 at 3.
    Accordingly, it doesn’t matter whether we apply the categorical approach or
    the modified categorical approach. Either way, Almanza-Vigil’s crime of conviction
    is “selling or distributing” a controlled substance in violation of Colorado Revised
    Statutes § 18-18-405(1)(a). And because that crime comprises fraudulent offers to
    sell a controlled substance, it does not categorically match the aggravated felony of
    “illicit trafficking in a controlled substance . . . , including a drug trafficking crime.”
    
    8 U.S.C. § 1101
    (a)(43)(B). Cf. McKibbon, 878 F.3d at 976.
    25
    That leaves a final question: Even though the government misclassified
    Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado conviction as an aggravated felony, which resulted in
    expedited removal proceedings and the denial of any opportunity for discretionary
    relief, can he additionally show that the entry of his previous removal order was
    “fundamentally unfair”? 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d)(3).
    C.     Did Misclassifying Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado Conviction Render
    the Entry of his 2009 Removal Order Fundamentally Unfair?
    Almanza-Vigil argues that the government’s misclassification of his Colorado
    conviction as an aggravated felony prejudiced him because, outside expedited
    removal proceedings, he could have applied for and received relief from removal,
    such as voluntary departure or cancellation of removal.10
    In Aguirre-Tello, we required a noncitizen alleging that the entry of a previous
    removal order was fundamentally unfair to meet a reasonable-likelihood standard.
    
    353 F.3d at 1209
    ; see also 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d)(3). To demonstrate fundamental
    unfairness, the noncitizen must establish a reasonable likelihood that, but for the
    10
    We agree with Almanza-Vigil that S.E.C. v. Chenery Corp. would bar us
    from upholding his removal order on grounds different from those stated in that
    order. See 
    332 U.S. 194
    , 196 (1947) (“[A] reviewing court, in dealing with a
    determination or judgment which an administrative agency alone is authorized to
    make, must judge the propriety of such action solely by the grounds invoked by the
    agency.”). But 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d)(3) prohibits us from addressing the removal order
    itself unless Almanza-Vigil can establish that the order’s entry was fundamentally
    unfair. And as Almanza-Vigil’s arguments throughout this case show, the
    fundamental-unfairness inquiry hinges on Almanza-Vigil’s chances of receiving
    relief from removal.
    26
    complained-of error, he would have avoided removal. Aguirre-Tello, 
    353 F.3d at 1208
     (quoting United States v. Calderon-Pena, 
    339 F.3d 320
    , 324 (5th Cir. 2003)).
    But in a footnote, Aguirre-Tello noted “the inherent difficulty in demonstrating
    prejudice from the denial of eligibility for discretionary relief.” 
    Id.
     at 1209 n.8 (citing
    Mejia Rodriguez v. Reno, 
    178 F.3d 1139
    , 1148 (11th Cir. 1999)). The Aguirre-Tello
    court quoted Mejia-Rodriguez, where the Eleventh Circuit warned:
    An alien’s actual chances of receiving such discretionary relief
    [suspension of deportation]11 are too speculative, and too far beyond the
    capability of judicial review, to conclude that the alien has actually
    suffered prejudice from being ineligible for suspension of
    deportation . . . . Just as a court cannot review the inherently ‘subjective’
    judgments made by the executive in deciding whether to commute a life
    sentence, this Court cannot predict the subjective and fact-intensive
    judgments that the Attorney General would make in deciding whether to
    grant extraordinary relief, such as the suspension of deportation . . . . The
    alien cannot demonstrate prejudice, much less substantial prejudice,
    arising from the ineligibility for such an ‘act of grace’ because no
    standards exist for a court to determine whether the executive would have
    granted the extraordinary relief anyway.
    
    Id.
     (quoting Mejia-Rodriguez, 
    178 F.3d at 1148
    ).
    At the threshold, we disagree with the district court that Almanza-Vigil’s odds
    of receiving “an ‘act of grace’ in the form of discretionary relief” present an inquiry
    “too speculative” for judicial examination. R. vol. 1 at 470 (quoting Aguirre-Tello,
    
    353 F.3d at
    1209 n.8). Aguirre-Tello itself did not consider the petitioning
    11
    Under the current statutory scheme, “suspension of removal” corresponds to
    cancellation of removal under 8 U.S.C. § 1229b. See Immigration and Naturalization
    Act § 244, Pub. L. No. 82-414, 
    66 Stat. 163
    , 
    8 U.S.C. § 1254
     (1994) (repealed).
    27
    noncitizen’s claim too speculative, despite hinting at the “inherent difficulty” of
    success. 
    353 F.3d at
    1209 n.8. Instead, the court explored the likelihood that he could
    have received “a § 212(c) waiver12 from deportation.” See id. at 1209–10.
    Accordingly, we will, too.
    We turn to whether, absent the government’s misclassification of his Colorado
    conviction as an aggravated felony, Almanza-Vigil had a reasonable likelihood of
    receiving either cancellation of removal or voluntary departure.
    1.     Cancellation of Removal
    The INA gives the Attorney General discretion to cancel the removal of an
    otherwise-removable, non-permanent-resident “alien” who:
    (A) has been physically present in the United States for a continuous
    period of not less than 10 years immediately preceding the date of
    [his] application [for cancellation of removal];
    (B) has been a person of good moral character during such period;
    (C) has not been convicted of an offense under [8 U.S.C.
    §§ ]1182(a)(2) [including “any law or regulation of a State . . .
    relating to a controlled substance (as defined in section 802 of Title
    21)”], 1227(a)(2) [including an aggravated felony or “any law or
    regulation of a State . . . relating to a controlled substance”], or
    12
    Before Congress enacted the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
    (AEDPA), section 212(c) of the INA, codified at 
    8 U.S.C. § 1182
    (c), gave the
    Attorney General broad discretion to waive deportation for resident noncitizens. See
    INS v. St. Cyr, 
    533 U.S. 289
    , 294–95 (2001). In 1996, AEDPA “reduced” the class of
    noncitizens eligible for such discretionary relief by identifying “a broad set of
    offenses for which conviction would preclude such relief.” 
    Id. at 297
    . Later that year,
    Congress passed the Illegal Immigrant Reform and Immigrant Responsibility Act of
    1996, which repealed 
    8 U.S.C. § 1182
    (c) and created 8 U.S.C. § 1229b, permitting
    “cancellation of removal” for a much narrower class of resident noncitizens. Id.
    28
    1227(a)(3) [failure to register and falsification of documents] . . . ;
    and
    (D) establishes that removal would result in exceptional and extremely
    unusual hardship to the alien’s spouse, parent, or child, who is a
    citizen of the United States or an alien lawfully admitted for
    permanent residence.
    8 U.S.C. § 1229b(b)(1).
    Almanza-Vigil claims that, “had the relevant officials realized his conviction
    was not an aggravated felony,” he would have had a reasonable likelihood of
    receiving cancellation of removal. Appellant’s Brief-in-Chief at 37. He submits the
    testimony of his immigration-law expert, Mr. Olsi Vrapi, a “Criminal immigration”
    law professor at the University of New Mexico School of Law and a practicing
    attorney who has represented hundreds of noncitizens in immigration proceedings. R.
    vol. 1 at 186:20. At the motion-to-dismiss hearing, Vrapi said that Almanza-Vigil
    was “eligible for this form of relief” despite having pleaded guilty to “selling or
    distributing” methamphetamine. R. vol. 1 at 206:25–207:1.
    We disagree. Though “selling or distributing” methamphetamine is not an
    aggravated felony under the INA, it does violate “a[] law or regulation of a State . . .
    relating to a controlled substance,” namely, Colorado Revised Statutes
    § 18-18-405(1)(a). 
    8 U.S.C. §§ 1182
    (a)(2), 1227(a)(2). Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado
    conviction thus qualifies as an offense under both § 1182(a)(2) and § 1227(a)(2),
    which would have disqualified him from receiving cancellation of removal under
    8 U.S.C. § 1229b(b)(1)(C).
    29
    2.    Voluntary Departure
    Compared to cancellation of removal, voluntary departure is available to a
    broader class of noncitizens. The INA excludes only aggravated felons, 
    8 U.S.C. § 1227
    (a)(2)(A)(iii), those engaged in terrorist activities, 
    id.
     § 1227(a)(4)(B), and
    some noncitizens “previously permitted to so depart,” from this form of relief. See id.
    §§ 1229c(a)(1), 1229c(c). Any other noncitizen may seek permission to depart at his
    own expense instead of commencing, or before completing, removal proceedings. See
    id. § 1229c(a)(1). Alternatively, at the end of removal proceedings, a noncitizen who
    meets certain conditions may seek an order from the immigration judge “granting
    voluntary departure in lieu of removal.” Id. § 1229c(b)(1). To receive such an order,
    the “alien” must:
    (A) . . . [have] been physically present in the United States for a period
    of at least one year immediately preceding the date the notice to
    appear was served . . . ;
    (B) . . . [be, and have] been, a person of good moral character for at
    least 5 years immediately preceding the alien’s application for
    voluntary departure;
    (C)    . . . not [be] deportable under section 1227(a)(2)(A)(iii)
    [aggravated-felony convictions] or section 1227(a)(4) [security-
    related grounds, including terrorist activities] . . . ; and
    (D) . . . establish[] by clear and convincing evidence that the alien has
    the means to depart the United States and intends to do so.
    Id.; see also 
    8 C.F.R. § 1240.26
    .
    Almanza-Vigil’s Colorado conviction was not an aggravated felony, and
    nothing in the record suggests that he poses a national-security risk. So, we agree
    with Almanza-Vigil that even with his criminal record, he was eligible to receive
    30
    voluntary departure in 2009, at least before the completion of removal proceedings.13
    But we disagree that he was reasonably likely to receive it. See Aguirre-Tello,
    
    353 F.3d at 1209
    .
    In exercising their discretion to grant or deny a voluntary-departure
    application, immigration judges balance the applicant’s positive equities, like lengthy
    residence in the United States and close ties to family here, against negative factors,
    like an unfavorable immigration history or a criminal record, and then decide whether
    the applicant is worthy of an exercise of discretion. See Matter of Gamboa, 14 I & N.
    Dec. 244, 248 (BIA 1972); accord United States v. Valdez-Novoa, 
    780 F.3d 906
    ,
    917–21 (9th Cir. 2015) (applying Gamboa’s balancing principle in the context of
    § 1326(d)’s fundamental-unfairness prong).
    Almanza-Vigil, bolstered by Vrapi’s testimony, asserts that an immigration
    judge considering the equities of his case would have found him worthy of voluntary
    departure. He had grown up in the United States since age eight; he had learned
    English, graduated from high school, and worked a steady job; and he had many
    13
    Had Almanza-Vigil received voluntary departure either before the end, or at
    the end, of the removal proceedings, the immigration judge would have entered an
    “alternate order of removal.” 
    8 C.F.R. § 1240.26
    (d); see also 8 U.S.C. § 1229c(b)(1).
    Neither party addressed how such an order might affect subsequent illegal-reentry
    proceedings. But had Almanza-Vigil returned after the entry of such an order, he
    would have “departed the United States while an order of exclusion, deportation, or
    removal [wa]s outstanding, and thereafter . . . enter[ed] . . . the United States,” thus
    violating 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (a). (He would not, though, be subject to the twenty-year
    maximum prison sentence for those “whose removal was subsequent to a conviction
    for commission of an aggravated felony.” 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (b)(2).)
    31
    citizen and lawful-permanent-resident family members, including a son born here.
    His “only negative equity” was his conviction for “selling or distributing”
    methamphetamine. Appellant’s Brief-in-Chief at 35. And Vrapi told the court that
    with the counterweight of his positive factors, Almanza-Vigil “had a reasonable
    likelihood of receiving” voluntary departure despite this conviction. R. vol. 1 at
    212:17–18. Voluntary departure, Vrapi explained, was “fairly easy” to get and “fairly
    typical to be granted,” absent “some egregious circumstance” (like “[p]rior violations
    of other voluntary returns,” “disregard of border laws,” or “criminal acts”). 
    Id.
     vol. 1
    at 211:21, 211:25–212:1, 212:4–7. Though he couldn’t give numbers, Vrapi said that
    his clients had “gotten voluntary departure, even with felonies.” 
    Id.
     vol. 1 at 212:12–
    13.
    In further support, Almanza-Vigil cites cases in which noncitizens with
    criminal records worse than his have won this form of relief. In his best example, In
    re: Luis Alonzo Gonzales-Figueroa, the Board of Immigration Appeals upheld an
    immigration judge’s decision to grant voluntary departure to an applicant with
    “numerous arrests,” four assault convictions (the last of which sent him to prison for
    six months), and one resisting-arrest conviction. 
    2006 WL 729784
    , at *1 (BIA
    Feb. 10, 2006). Considering Gonzales-Figueroa’s countervailing positive equities,
    like his lengthy residence in the country, his participation in Alcoholics Anonymous,
    and the testimony of his mother and sister, both U.S. citizens, that he had quit
    drinking and helped his mother pay the bills, the board ruled that the immigration
    judge had not abused his discretion. 
    Id.
     at *1–2.
    32
    But as the Ninth Circuit observed in Valdez-Novoa, “a single case that is
    arguably on point means only that it is ‘possible’ or ‘conceivable’ that a similarly
    situated alien would be afforded voluntary departure.” 780 F.3d at 920. The same
    point dampens Vrapi’s helpfulness here. Vrapi could not quantify Almanza-Vigil’s
    chances, nor could he describe any case in which an immigration judge had allowed
    someone convicted of “selling or distributing” methamphetamine to depart
    voluntarily. Vrapi’s conclusory assertions that voluntary-departure relief is “fairly”
    likely overall and would have been “reasonably” likely in Almanza-Vigil’s case
    cannot substitute for such empirical or anecdotal evidence. (Tellingly, Vrapi was
    unfamiliar with the Aguirre-Tello decision.) Our reasoning parallels the analysis in
    United States v. Reyes-Alvares, which involved the same expert witness and a similar
    fact pattern. No. CR 15-4121 KG, 
    2016 WL 10720854
    , at *1, *5 (D.N.M. Feb. 19,
    2016). There, the district court found Vrapi’s examples distinguishable from the case
    at bar, so it discounted his testimony “that ‘IJs ‘hand[ ][voluntary departures] out like
    candy.’” 
    Id.
     at *6–7 (alterations in original). Even added to decisions like Gonzales-
    Figueroa, Vrapi’s testimony here establishes only the possibility that Almanza-Vigil
    might have received voluntary departure had his Colorado conviction been properly
    classified; it doesn’t establish a reasonable likelihood.
    Almanza-Vigil has close ties to this country, including a U.S.-citizen son, but
    in 2009, when the government issued his removal order, he had just been released
    from prison for “selling or distributing” methamphetamine—a serious crime in the
    colloquial sense, if not technically an aggravated felony under the INA. See 8 U.S.C.
    33
    § 1101(a)(43)(B). And unlike the applicant in Gonzales-Figueroa, Almanza-Vigil
    offered no evidence of rehabilitation. See 
    2006 WL 729784
    , at *1–2. As a result, he
    can’t meet his burden of showing a “reasonable likelihood that, in deciding who is
    deserving of discretionary relief from deportation among the many aliens eligible for
    such relief, the Attorney General would grant relief to one so recently convicted of
    such a serious . . . crime.” Aguirre-Tello, 
    353 F.3d at 1209
    .
    We agree with the district court that Almanza-Vigil failed to satisfy the
    fundamental-unfairness prong of 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d)(3). And without satisfying that
    condition, the INA precludes him from collaterally attacking his 2009 removal order
    in the illegal-reentry prosecution. See 
    8 U.S.C. § 1326
    (d).
    CONCLUSION
    For these reasons, we affirm the district court’s judgment.
    34