United States v. Rosales-Miranda , 755 F.3d 1253 ( 2014 )


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  •                                                                                        FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                              Tenth Circuit
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                                     July 7, 2014
    _________________________________
    Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                                             No. 13-1150
    (D.C. No. 1:12-CR-00356-WJM-1)
    MANUEL ANTONIO ROSALES-
    MIRANDA,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    _________________________________
    ORDER
    _________________________________
    Before KELLY, GORSUCH, and HOLMES, Circuit Judges.
    _________________________________
    This matter is before the court on appellant’s Motion for Publication of Order and
    Judgment. We also have a response from the United States. Upon consideration, the
    motion to publish is granted. The court’s June 17, 2014 decision has been reformatted as
    a published opinion and is attached to this order. The clerk is directed to file the
    published opinion nunc pro tunc to the original filing date.
    Entered for the Court
    ELISABETH A. SHUMAKER, Clerk
    FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    Tenth Circuit
    June 17, 2014
    PUBLISH                  Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    TENTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.
    No. 13-1150
    MANUEL ANTONIO ROSALES-
    MIRANDA,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Colorado
    (D.C. No. 1:12-CR-00356-WJM-1)
    Jill M. Wichlens, Assistant Federal Public Defender (Warren R. Williamson,
    Federal Public Defender, Interim, with her on the briefs), Denver, Colorado, for
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Robert M. Russel, Assistant United States Attorney, (Laurie K. Dean, Special
    Assistant United States Attorney, and John F. Walsh, United States Attorney, on
    the brief), Denver, Colorado, for Plaintiff-Appellee.
    Before KELLY, GORSUCH, and HOLMES, Circuit Judges.
    HOLMES, Circuit Judge.
    Defendant-Appellant Manuel Rosales-Miranda was convicted of illegal
    reentry after being deported, in violation of 8 U.S.C. §§ 1326(a) and 1326(b)(2).
    The district court applied a sixteen-level enhancement to Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    offense level pursuant to § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) of the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines
    (“U.S.S.G.” or “the Guidelines”), which allows for such an enhancement where
    the defendant has a prior crime-of-violence felony conviction. The district court
    applied the enhancement based on two misdemeanor Virginia state domestic-
    violence convictions. The parties now agree not only that this was error, but also
    that it was clear or obvious error under current law, as those domestic-violence
    convictions were not felonies. The parties disagree, however, regarding whether
    the error affected Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s substantial rights and whether it has
    seriously affected the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial
    proceedings. Exercising jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1291, we reverse the
    district court’s sentencing order and remand the case, instructing the district
    court to vacate Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s sentence and to conduct a resentencing
    proceeding consistent with this order and judgment.
    I
    Mr. Rosales-Miranda was indicted for illegally reentering the United States
    after being deported, in violation of 8 U.S.C. §§ 1326(a) and 1326(b)(2). He
    pleaded guilty to these criminal charges. An officer of the United States
    Probation Office then prepared a Presentence Investigation Report (“PSR”). The
    PSR started with a base offense level of eight, as provided by U.S.S.G.
    2
    § 2L1.2(a). 1 It then applied a sixteen-level enhancement under
    § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii)—the crime-of-violence enhancement—which is warranted
    when the defendant illegally reenters the United States after receiving a felony
    conviction for “a crime of violence.” R., Vol. III, ¶ 16, at 28 (PSR, dated Jan. 25,
    2013). The PSR applied the enhancement referencing two 2004 convictions
    entered by a Virginia state court for “Assault and Battery on a Family Member”
    (hereinafter, “the domestic-violence convictions”). 
    Id. From the
    adjusted offense
    level of twenty-four, the PSR subtracted three levels for acceptance of
    responsibility, resulting in a total offense level of twenty-one.
    Turning to the criminal-history calculation, the probation officer recounted
    in the PSR Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s criminal record. Along with an “Assault on a
    Police Officer” conviction, 
    id., ¶ 33,
    at 30, the probation officer factored the
    domestic-violence convictions into Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s criminal-history score.
    Accordingly, the PSR assigned Mr. Rosales-Miranda a criminal-history score of
    twelve, resulting in a criminal-history category of V. Using this criminal-history
    category and the offense level of twenty-one, the PSR calculated an advisory
    Guidelines range of seventy to eighty-seven months of imprisonment. Neither
    Mr. Rosales-Miranda nor the government objected to the PSR.
    Pursuant to the written plea agreement, the government recommended a
    1
    The Probation Office used the 2012 edition of the Guidelines in
    preparing the PSR. Because neither party has objected to this decision, we use
    the 2012 edition as well.
    3
    prison term of seventy months and (consistent with the PSR’s recommendation)
    moved for a one-offense-level decrease under U.S.S.G. § 3E1.1(b) for acceptance
    of responsibility. Mr. Rosales-Miranda then moved for a downward variance,
    requesting a sentence not longer than thirty months based on the 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a) sentencing factors—specifically highlighting in this regard his personal
    history, his family situation, and the comparative leniency of the prior sentences
    for the purported felonies cited in support of the crime-of-violence enhancement.
    At sentencing, the district court accepted the PSR’s Guidelines
    computations. The court began its discussion, however, by noting that the “really
    disturbing” feature of Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s case was the domestic-violence
    convictions. R., Vol. II, at 31 (Sentencing Tr., dated Mar. 19, 2013). The court
    remarked, “[O]ne of the crimes I cannot abide is domestic violence [toward]
    spouses.” 
    Id. It then
    recited Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s grounds for his downward-
    variance motion, with particular emphasis on his claim that he had come to the
    United States to work so that he could send money to his elderly mother and
    young children in Guatemala. The district court also noted Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda’s position that “even the 30-month sentence he requested in this motion
    would by far be the longest amount of time he [had] ever spent in prison before
    and that such a variant sentence would be a profound deterrent to the defendant
    from ever returning to this country.” 
    Id. at 36.
    After making these remarks, the district court addressed a policy
    4
    disagreement with the Guidelines, first stating that
    [a]part from the grounds set forth in the defendant’s motion, I
    note that the offense level in this case is governed by Section
    2L1.2 of the Sentencing Guidelines. In United States [v.]
    Garcia-Jaquez, [
    807 F. Supp. 2d 1005
    (D. Colo. 2011)], this
    Court published its sentencing order and addressed the significant
    concerns I have with the application of this guideline to cases
    like the one before me today. I hereby incorporate by reference
    my reasoning set forth in Garcia-Jaquez.
    I find that in this case the double counting[ 2] of defendant’s prior
    felony conviction[s] results in a guideline range greater than
    necessary to achieve the goals of Section 3553(a). Let me stress
    it is not my view that [these] prior conviction[s] [should] be
    eliminated entirely from either the offense level or the criminal
    history category. Instead, the double counting is a factor I will
    consider in determining the appropriate sentence to impose in
    this case.
    Moreover, I do not find that it is completely unwarranted to
    consider the defendant’s prior convictions in determining a fair
    sentence. Indeed, it is because of defendant’s prior criminal
    history record that I will grant the defendant’s motion in part
    only.
    
    Id. at 36–37.
    The district court then recited the facts of Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    previous convictions, including that he attacked his wife “with his fist, kicking
    her, banging her head against a solid tile floor and striking her on the arms
    twice.” 
    Id. at 37.
    “Significantly,” the district court added, “the defendant did not
    complete the anger management classes required by his state court sentence.” 
    Id. 2 By
    “double counting,” the district court apparently meant that when a
    district court applies the crime-of-violence enhancement, it counts the conviction
    not only for purposes of an enhancement of the defendant’s offense level, but also
    for purposes of calculating the defendant’s criminal-history score. See Garcia-
    
    Jaquez, 807 F. Supp. 2d at 1015
    .
    5
    Following that discussion, the district court announced that it would
    “impose a downward variant sentence based on [its] policy disagreement with the
    substantial effect that Section 2L1.2’s double counting of defendant’s prior felony
    conviction[s] has on Mr. [Rosales-Miranda’s] guideline range.” 
    Id. at 38.
    Moreover, having thus stated this policy disagreement, the court proceeded to
    present another:
    I will also grant defendant’s motion on the basis . . . that this
    particular guideline’s sentencing enhancements are divorced from
    empirical data. As I examined in Garcia-Jaquez, the Sentencing
    Commission did no study to determine if this guideline’s
    enhancements for prior convictions served any legitimate
    penological goal.
    As a result I find that in this case Section 2L1.2’s sentencing
    range does not necessarily reflect a sentence that might achieve
    Section 3553(a)’s objectives.
    
    Id. Acting on
    these two policy disagreements, the district court sentenced Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda to thirty-six months in prison. Mr. Rosales-Miranda filed a
    timely notice of appeal.
    II
    On appeal, the parties agree that the district court committed a sentencing
    error and that the error was clear or obvious. The parties also agree that Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda failed to preserve an objection to that error. This forfeiture
    triggers plain-error review. See Fed. R. Crim. P. 52(b); United States v. Vasquez-
    Alcarez, 
    647 F.3d 973
    , 976 (10th Cir. 2011) (“If [the defendant] has forfeited the
    6
    . . . argument, we review . . . only for plain error.”); United States v. Gonzalez-
    Jaquez, 
    566 F.3d 1250
    , 1251 (10th Cir. 2009) (reviewing for plain error, where
    defense counsel failed to object to the district court’s finding that offense was a
    crime of violence implicating sentencing enhancement); see also United States v.
    Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 731 (1993) (prescribing plain-error review for cases
    involving “errors that were forfeited because not timely raised in district court”).
    The parties only disagree about whether Mr. Rosales-Miranda fully satisfies our
    plain-error test.
    As one of our sister circuits has deftly noted, “[t]he Supreme Court has
    cautioned appellate courts against the ‘reflexive inclination’ to reverse
    unpreserved error.” United States v. Carthorne, 
    726 F.3d 503
    , 510 (4th Cir.
    2013) (quoting Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 134 (2009)), cert. denied, -
    -- U.S. ----, 
    134 S. Ct. 1326
    (2014). “As a result, relief on plain error review is
    ‘difficult to get, as it should be.’” 
    Id. (quoting United
    States v. Dominguez
    Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 83 n.9 (2004)).
    Thus, Mr. Rosales-Miranda “[cannot] prevail unless he [can] successfully
    run the gauntlet created by our rigorous plain-error standard of review.” United
    States v. Bader, 
    678 F.3d 858
    , 894 n.24 (10th Cir. 2012) (quoting United States v.
    McGehee, 
    672 F.3d 860
    , 866 (10th Cir. 2012)).
    Under this demanding standard, he must demonstrate: (1) an
    error, (2) that is plain, which means clear or obvious under
    current law, and (3) that affects substantial rights. If he satisfies
    these criteria, this Court may exercise discretion to correct the
    7
    error if [4] it seriously affects the fairness, integrity, or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.
    
    McGehee, 672 F.3d at 876
    (alteration in original) (emphasis added) (quoting
    United States v. Cooper, 
    654 F.3d 1104
    , 1117 (10th Cir. 2011)) (internal
    quotation marks omitted); see also United States v. Goode, 
    483 F.3d 676
    , 681
    (10th Cir. 2007) (noting the same requirements “[t]o obtain relief under this
    doctrine”). “We will not reverse a conviction for plain error unless all four
    prongs of the plain-error test are satisfied.” United States v. Caraway, 
    534 F.3d 1290
    , 1299 (10th Cir. 2008).
    “[T]he plain-error standard, while difficult to overcome, serves an
    important goal: to balance ‘our need to encourage all trial participants to seek a
    fair and accurate trial the first time around against our insistence that obvious
    injustice be promptly redressed.’” United States v. Frost, 
    684 F.3d 963
    , 971–72
    (10th Cir. 2012) (quoting United States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 15 (1985)).
    “Accordingly, we will find plain error only when an error is particularly
    egregious and the failure to remand for correction would produce a miscarriage of
    justice.” 
    Id. (quoting United
    States v. Trujillo-Terrazas, 
    405 F.3d 814
    , 820 (10th
    Cir. 2005)) (internal quotation marks omitted). We conclude that Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda has identified such an egregious error that satisfies the plain-error test;
    accordingly, his sentence cannot stand.
    III
    The parties share the view that the first two prongs of the plain-error test
    8
    are satisfied—viz., that the district court erred and that its error was clear or
    obvious. We see no reason to question this conclusion. Therefore, we turn our
    focus to the third and fourth prongs of the plain-error test.
    A
    In our third-prong inquiry under plain-error review, we ask whether the
    error seriously affected the defendant’s substantial rights. An error seriously
    affects the defendant’s substantial rights, as those terms are used in the plain-
    error test, when the defendant demonstrates “that there is a reasonable probability
    that, but for the error claimed, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.” United States v. Mendoza, 
    698 F.3d 1303
    , 1310 (10th Cir. 2012)
    (quoting United States v. Weiss, 
    630 F.3d 1263
    , 1274 (10th Cir. 2010)) (internal
    quotation marks omitted). “A reasonable probability is a probability sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome.” United States v. Hasan, 
    526 F.3d 653
    ,
    665 (10th Cir. 2008) (quoting Sallahdin v. Gibson, 
    275 F.3d 1211
    , 1235 (10th Cir.
    2002)) (internal quotation marks omitted). “We therefore must ask whether we
    are in doubt that, had the district court” calculated the advisory Guidelines range
    correctly, it would have imposed the same sentence. 
    Id. 1 We
    conclude that there is a reasonable probability that, absent the district
    court’s error, Mr. Rosales-Miranda would have received a different sentence.
    First, we note that the court’s erroneous calculation produced a significant
    9
    deviation from the proper range: an erroneous Guidelines range of seventy to
    eighty-seven months, whereas the correct Guidelines range would have been
    either thirty to thirty-seven months, or thirty-three to forty-one months, subject to
    the proper criminal-history category. 3 Thus, the incorrect Guidelines calculation
    more than doubled Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s advisory Guidelines range.
    “[A] district court should begin all sentencing proceedings by correctly
    calculating the applicable Guidelines range.” United States v. Ray, 
    704 F.3d 1307
    , 1315 (10th Cir.) (internal quotation marks omitted), cert. denied, --- U.S. --
    --, 
    133 S. Ct. 2812
    (2013). The Guidelines thus form “the starting point and the
    initial benchmark” for all sentencing proceedings. Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 49 (2007). “The district court must then consider the arguments of the parties
    and the factors set forth in [18 U.S.C.] § 3553(a).” Peugh v. United States, ---
    3
    We note as well that the parties perfunctorily joust about the proper
    criminal-history category to assign to Mr. Rosales-Miranda. The government
    contends that Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s criminal-history score should have been
    thirteen—not twelve, as the PSR found and the district court adopted. Therefore,
    the government places Mr. Rosales-Miranda in criminal-history category VI,
    rather than V. Assuming that the sixteen-level crime-of-violence enhancement
    was applied in error, the government submits that the Guidelines imprisonment
    range would then have been thirty-three to forty-one months. Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda does not vigorously contest this possibility (if he does so at all), as he
    characterizes the appropriate sentencing range absent the crime-of-violence
    enhancement as either the thirty- to thirty-seven-month range, which would
    follow from a criminal-history category V, or the thirty-three- to forty-one-month
    range, which would follow from a category VI. However, we need not opine on
    the particulars of this dispute to resolve this appeal. For our purposes, the
    important point is that the sentencing error had the effect of more than doubling
    the operative Guidelines range, irrespective of whether Mr. Rosales-Miranda was
    properly assigned a criminal-history category of V or VI.
    10
    U.S. ----, 
    133 S. Ct. 2072
    , 2080 (2013). “These requirements mean that ‘[i]n the
    usual sentencing, . . . the judge will use the Guidelines range as the starting point
    in the analysis and impose a sentence within the range.’” 
    Id. at 2083
    (alteration
    and omission in original) (quoting Freeman v. United States, --- U.S. ----, 131 S.
    Ct. 2685, 2692 (2011) (plurality opinion)). “Even if the sentencing judge sees a
    reason to vary from the Guidelines, ‘if the judge uses the sentencing range as the
    beginning point to explain the decision to deviate from it, then the Guidelines are
    in a real sense the basis for the sentence.’” 
    Id. (quoting Freeman,
    131 S. Ct. at
    2692). “That a district court may ultimately sentence a given defendant outside
    the Guidelines range does not deprive the Guidelines of force as the framework
    for sentencing.” 
    Id. Thus, because
    the Guidelines exert their force whenever a district court
    complies with the federal sentencing scheme by first calculating the Guidelines
    range, a miscalculation in the Guidelines range runs the risk of affecting the
    ultimate sentence regardless of whether the court ultimately imposes a sentence
    within or outside that range. See United States v. Langford, 
    516 F.3d 205
    , 217
    (3d Cir. 2008) (“[W]hen the starting point for the § 3553(a) analysis is incorrect,
    the end point, i.e., the resulting sentence, can rarely be shown to be unaffected.”);
    accord United States v. Goodman, 
    519 F.3d 310
    , 323 (6th Cir. 2008). This risk
    was especially grave here, and likely to be prejudicial to Mr. Rosales-Miranda,
    because the Guidelines calculation error had the effect of very significantly
    11
    increasing his Guidelines range—indeed, it more than doubled it. Consequently,
    though the erroneous Guidelines starting point for the district court’s § 3553(a)
    analysis was not even close to the proper “initial benchmark,” 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 49
    , the court would have been obliged to begin its § 3553(a) analysis—including
    its consideration of the possibility of a downward variance—from this false,
    comparatively stratospheric Guidelines plateau. Put another way, the Guidelines
    baseline from which the district court ultimately determined Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda’s sentence and decided to vary downward was significantly higher than it
    should have been, which strongly suggests that there is a reasonable probability
    that Mr. Rosales-Miranda was prejudiced by the sentencing error that produced
    this false baseline. Accordingly, without more, we would be firmly inclined to
    conclude that Mr. Rosales-Miranda has satisfied the third prong of the plain-error
    test.
    2
    However, there is more. An examination of the district court’s reasoning
    confirms the soundness of our inclination to find the third prong of plain-error
    review satisfied. Specifically, in downwardly varying from the erroneous
    Guidelines range, the district court relied on two policy disagreements it had with
    the Guidelines: (1) its disapproval of “double counting” a defendant’s prior
    convictions, and (2) its belief that the crime-of-violence enhancement was
    “divorced from empirical data.” R., Vol. II, at 38. Importantly, those
    12
    disagreements would still have vitality if the court resentenced Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda under the proper Guidelines range.
    In this regard, as Mr. Rosales-Miranda has noted, had his offense level not
    been enhanced by sixteen levels because of the domestic-violence convictions, it
    still would have been properly enhanced by eight levels under U.S.S.G.
    § 2L1.2(b)(1)(C) for the assault of a police officer, as that conviction would have
    merited an aggravated-felony enhancement under this Guidelines provision. 4 This
    aggravated-felony enhancement would have produced the same alleged double-
    counting problem that initially concerned the district court. Consequently, at a
    minimum, there is a reasonable probability that the district court would have
    downwardly varied from the proper Guidelines range—computed using the
    aggravated-felony enhancement—to address this double-counting issue, yielding a
    sentence that would have been lower than Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s original thirty-
    six-month sentence. Similarly, to the extent that the district court’s initial
    decision to downwardly vary was predicated on U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1)’s
    purported lack of an empirical foundation, that deficiency would still be present if
    the court resentenced Mr. Rosales-Miranda under a properly calculated Guidelines
    4
    Under U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1), considering the specified upward
    adjustments for which a defendant qualifies, the sentencing court is to apply the
    one that yields the greatest offense-level increase. Thus, the district court here
    would only have considered applying the eight-level enhancement for Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda’s aggravated-felony conviction if he were ineligible for the
    higher, sixteen-level enhancement for the alleged crimes of violence.
    13
    range. And, therefore, a reasonable probability exists that the court would
    respond to the supposed empirical deficiency in § 2L1.2(b)(1) in the same
    manner—that is, by downwardly varying to a sentence that, under the proper
    Guidelines range, necessarily would be lower than thirty-six months (i.e., Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda’s original sentence).
    The government does not offer much to counter this third-prong analysis.
    Instead, it notes that the determination to be made at this stage of the plain-error
    test “is not clear.” Aplee. Br. at 9. Explaining this rather noncommittal view, the
    government notes that, although the district court committed clear or obvious
    error in computing Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s Guidelines range, the downward-
    variant sentence that it actually imposed on him—that is, thirty-six
    months—undisputedly falls within the correct Guidelines range. There is, it
    reasons, “some tension within this Court’s precedent,” 
    id. at 10,
    when the actual
    sentence that a defendant received falls within the Guidelines range that would
    have been computed absent the error (i.e., the proper Guidelines range),
    regarding whether the defendant should be deemed as a matter of law not to have
    been prejudiced by the error.
    As its sole example of a case holding that in such a situation a defendant
    should not be found to have been prejudiced, the government cites United States
    v. Hoskins, 
    654 F.3d 1086
    , 1099 (10th Cir. 2011). In Hoskins, we reasoned that
    even if the defendant could demonstrate clear or obvious error that had increased
    14
    her applicable sentencing range, she could not establish prejudice because the
    actual sentence imposed by the district court fell within the proper lower
    Guidelines range. 
    Id. We recognize
    that Hoskins could be viewed as obstructing the conclusion
    that we reach at the third prong. However, viewed in the context of our precedent
    as a whole, Hoskins does not dictate our course here. It is axiomatic that “when
    faced with an intra-circuit conflict, a panel should follow earlier, settled
    precedent over a subsequent deviation therefrom.” Haynes v. Williams, 
    88 F.3d 898
    , 900 n.4 (10th Cir. 1996); accord United States v. Rodriguez-Aguirre, 
    414 F.3d 1177
    , 1185 n.10 (10th Cir. 2005). And, to the extent that Hoskins militates
    against the path that we take here, it also runs counter to United States v. Osuna,
    
    189 F.3d 1289
    (10th Cir. 1999), a pre-Hoskins precedential decision of our court.
    In Osuna, contrary to Hoskins, we concluded that the third prong of the
    plain-error test was satisfied, even though (like here) the defendant’s actual
    sentence—despite the district court’s sentencing error—fell within the properly
    computed Guidelines 
    range. 189 F.3d at 1294
    –95. Furthermore, in reaching this
    result, we relied on an even earlier precedential decision—namely, United States
    v. Urbanek, 
    930 F.2d 1512
    (10th Cir. 1991). There, in an analogous setting, we
    refused to declare harmless a district court’s erroneous obstruction-of-justice
    enhancement under U.S.S.G. § 3C1.1—in other words, we found that the
    adjustment was prejudicial—even though the defendant’s proper Guidelines range
    15
    substantially overlapped with the erroneous one. 
    Urbanek, 930 F.2d at 1515
    –16.
    We felt “compelled to remand for resentencing” because “the district court did
    not specifically state that [the defendant’s] sentence would have been the same
    with or without the obstruction of justice adjustment.” 5 
    Id. at 1516.
    As was true
    of Urbanek, the district court here did not specifically state—indeed, did not even
    intimate—that it would have reached the same sentence if Mr. Rosales-Miranda
    had not been (erroneously) assigned the crime-of-violence adjustment, and for the
    reasons discussed above, we do not think there is a reasonable probability that it
    would have reached the same sentence. Thus, insofar as Hoskins would impede
    us from reaching our otherwise sound conclusion that the third prong of the plain-
    error test is satisfied, guided by our intra-circuit-conflict rules, and taking note of
    our earlier, pre-Hoskins precedential decisions in Osuna and Urbanek, we do not
    feel obliged to follow Hoskins.
    In sum, because Mr. Rosales-Miranda has shown a reasonable probability
    that the relevant outcome—his sentence—would have been different without the
    5
    The Third Circuit’s reasoning in Langford underscores the soundness
    of the approach that our court took in Osuna and Urbanek. See 
    Langford, 516 F.3d at 216
    (“Although some courts have adopted an ‘overlapping range’
    rationale, we conclude that such an ‘overlap’ does not necessarily render an error
    in the Guidelines calculation harmless. Such an overlap, alone, proves too little.
    The record must show that the sentencing judge would have imposed the same
    sentence under a correct Guidelines range, that is, that the sentencing Guidelines
    range did not affect the sentence actually imposed. The overlap may be helpful,
    but it is the sentencing judge’s reasoning, not the overlap alone, that will be
    determinative.”).
    16
    error, he has met his burden of showing that his substantial rights were affected.
    Accordingly, he has satisfied the third prong of the plain-error test.
    B
    Under the fourth prong of the plain-error test, the defendant must show that
    the complained-of error “seriously affects the fairness, integrity, or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” United States v. Figueroa-Labrada, 
    720 F.3d 1258
    , 1266 (10th Cir. 2013) (internal quotation marks omitted). “The fourth
    prong of the plain error test is discretionary,” United States v. Turrietta, 
    696 F.3d 972
    , 984 (10th Cir. 2012), and its standard is a “demanding standard, and of
    course, depends on the facts of the particular case,” United States v. Gonzalez-
    Huerta, 
    403 F.3d 727
    , 737 (10th Cir. 2005) (citation omitted).
    Reversal on the fourth prong is appropriate only where the error is
    “‘particularly egregious’ and the ‘failure to notice the error would result in a
    miscarriage of justice.’” United States v. Rufai, 
    732 F.3d 1175
    , 1195 (10th Cir.
    2013) (quoting 
    Gonzalez-Huerta, 403 F.3d at 736
    ). As part of this showing, in
    the sentencing context, a defendant “must demonstrate a strong possibility of
    receiving a significantly lower sentence” but for the error. United States v.
    Mullins, 
    613 F.3d 1273
    , 1294 (10th Cir. 2010) (quoting United States v.
    Meacham, 
    567 F.3d 1184
    , 1190 (10th Cir. 2009)) (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    However, a Guidelines range that is the product of “obvious calculation
    17
    errors contained in the PSR . . . will be noticed more freely on plain error
    review.” United States v. Johnson, 
    414 F.3d 1260
    , 1265 (10th Cir. 2005). Such a
    patent, egregious PSR calculation error is present here. The PSR disregarded the
    express language of the Virginia statute in treating Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    domestic-violence convictions as felonies—instead of, properly, as
    misdemeanors 6—and the district court endorsed this obvious error and predicated
    its Guidelines computation on it. The result was a dramatic increase in Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda’s Guidelines range—that is, a doubling of it—and we have
    determined that there is a reasonable probability that this error prejudiced him.
    We likewise believe that, under these circumstances, this patent PSR computation
    error should militate in favor of a conclusion that the fourth prong of the plain-
    error test is satisfied.
    Furthermore, we are confident that there is a strong possibility that, absent
    the error, the district court would have imposed a significantly lesser sentence on
    Mr. Rosales-Miranda. Consistent with our third-prong reasoning, we predicate
    this conclusion on the fact that, in resentencing, the district court would be
    starting its § 3553(a) analysis from a substantially lower Guidelines range; and on
    our view that nothing in the record suggests that the district court would
    otherwise have abandoned its two principled policy disagreements with the
    6
    Under the applicable Virginia statute, “[a]ny person who commits an
    assault and battery against a family or household member is guilty of a Class 1
    misdemeanor.” Va. Code Ann. § 18.2-57.2(A).
    18
    Guidelines that led it, in the original sentencing proceeding, to significantly vary
    downward from the advisory Guidelines range. Indeed, the magnitude of the
    court’s downward variance bears underscoring: based on its policy critique of the
    Guidelines, the district court imposed a sentence on Mr. Rosales-Miranda that
    was almost one-half of the low end of what the court thought was the correct
    advisory Guidelines range.
    Whether the court would elect to vary downward so dramatically when
    faced with the true, substantially lower Guidelines range on resentencing is not
    the determinative point in this appeal. Rather, our focus is on whether there is a
    legally cognizable possibility that the difference between the original, error-laden
    sentence that Mr. Rosales-Miranda received and the lower, more favorable
    sentence the district court ultimately would impose on resentencing is
    “sufficiently significant,” such that we may conclude that leaving the original
    sentence in place would “work a miscarriage of justice.” United States v.
    Cordery, 
    656 F.3d 1103
    , 1108 (10th Cir. 2011).
    In Cordery, we determined that the possibility that the defendant would
    receive a sentence that was five months lower than his original, error-based
    sentence—amounting to a roughly ten percent deviation from his original
    sentence—was enough to conclude that permitting the original sentence to stand
    would “work a miscarriage of justice.” 
    Id. Or, put
    another way, we determined
    that the ten percent possible difference in the defendant’s sentence was
    19
    “sufficiently significant,” which led us to conclude that the fourth prong of the
    plain-error test was satisfied—especially when “on th[e] record there [was] every
    reason to believe the district court may find a sentence below” the defendant’s
    original sentence in a subsequent resentencing. 
    Id. Here, we
    are confident that, irrespective of whether the district court would
    elect to vary downward as dramatically as it did in Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    original sentencing, when confronted with the substantially lower, correct
    Guidelines range, the difference between its new sentence and Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda’s original sentence would be “sufficiently significant” within the
    meaning of Cordery. Starting from a considerably lower, proper Guidelines
    baseline, there is at least a reasonable basis in the record to conclude that the
    district court would still meaningfully discount that range (at a minimum, by the
    ten percent found in Cordery), in making manifest its two policy disagreements
    with the Guidelines. And, as in Cordery, on this record, we have “every reason to
    believe the district court may find a sentence below” Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    original sentence. 
    Id. Accordingly, under
    these circumstances, we conclude that
    Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s sentencing error is the kind that “seriously affects the
    fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial proceedings,” Figueroa-
    
    Labrada, 720 F.3d at 1266
    (internal quotation marks omitted), and exercise our
    discretion to “notice the error,” United States v. Eddy, 
    523 F.3d 1268
    , 1270 (10th
    Cir. 2008) (quoting 
    Gonzalez-Huerta, 403 F.3d at 736
    ) (internal quotation marks
    20
    omitted).
    In resisting this conclusion, the government contends that the district
    court’s two policy disagreements led it to disregard the Guidelines range entirely
    and settle on thirty-six months as the appropriate sentence under § 3553(a)’s
    sentencing factors. Under the government’s view, there is not a significant
    possibility that lowering the Guidelines range to its proper level would result in
    the district court imposing a significantly lesser sentence on Mr. Rosales-Miranda
    because when the court imposed the thirty-six-month sentence on him, the
    Guidelines range was not a factor in its sentencing calculus (i.e, it ignored the
    range altogether). See Aplee. Br. at 15 (“Instead of following the guidelines in
    this case, the district court looked to the specific circumstances of Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda, particularly his extensive criminal history, and based the sentence on the
    Section 3553(a) factors. . . . Thus, the record suggests that the district court’s
    error in calculating the guideline range did not impact its decision to impose a 36-
    month sentence.” (citation omitted)).
    We are not persuaded by the government’s reasoning. As we have noted,
    district courts are obliged to use the advisory Guidelines range as the jumping-off
    point for their sentencing analyses. See, e.g., 
    Peugh, 133 S. Ct. at 2083
    (“The
    post-Booker federal sentencing scheme aims to achieve uniformity by ensuring
    that sentencing decisions are anchored by the Guidelines and that they remain a
    meaningful benchmark through the process of appellate review.”). Consequently,
    21
    it would have been patent procedural error for the district court to wholly ignore
    the Guidelines, as the government suggests that it did. Thus, in order for us to
    employ the government’s reasoning in rejecting Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s claim of
    reversible error, we would need to, paradoxically, ascribe further error to the
    district court. The legal propriety or wisdom of such a facially dubious
    jurisprudential course need not delay us because we find absolutely no foundation
    for moving in that direction on this record.
    The district court did clearly indicate that its policy disagreements with the
    Guidelines caused it to view the recommended range as excessive and
    untrustworthy because of its concerns about alleged double-counting and the
    relevant Guidelines provision’s purported lack of empirical grounding. But there
    is no indication that the district court abandoned the Guidelines range as the
    starting point and enduring touchstone in fashioning Mr. Rosales-Miranda’s
    sentence. In this regard, the court’s incorporation of its prior reasoning in
    Garcia-Jaquez is notable because there the court’s analysis was replete with
    references to the Guidelines, and the court left no doubt that its intention was not
    to discard the Guidelines range, but rather to discount it to reflect the court’s
    policy disagreements. 
    See 807 F. Supp. 2d at 1015
    (declining to give “strict
    application” to the defendant’s Guidelines range because it was “primarily driven
    by § 2L1.2(b)(1), which is not based on empirical data”); 
    id. at 1016
    (noting that
    the purported double-counting problem associated with the defendant’s trespass
    22
    conviction “resulted in a guideline range greater than necessary to achieve the
    goals of § 3553(a),” but declining to “simply eliminate the trespass conviction
    from either the offense level or the criminal history category,” presumably
    because it would have been improper to do so and would also have altered the
    integrity and usefulness of the Guidelines range as a touchstone; rather, indicating
    “the double-counting was a factor that the Court considered in its overall
    determination of a sentence” consonant with § 3553(a)’s principles); cf. R., Vol.
    II, at 36–37 (“Let me stress it is not my view that this prior conviction [of Mr.
    Rosales-Miranda] be eliminated entirely from either the offense level or the
    criminal history category. Instead, the double counting is a factor I will consider
    in determining the appropriate sentence to impose in this case.”). At bottom, the
    government’s contention that there is not a sufficient possibility that the district
    court would impose a significantly lesser sentence thus rests on a clear
    premise—that is, the district court was not influenced by the improper Guidelines
    range in imposing its original sentence; instead, it entirely discarded that range.
    However, in our view, there is no foothold in the record for this premise.
    Accordingly, the government’s contention is unpersuasive.
    In sum, we hold that Mr. Rosales-Miranda has satisfied his burden under all
    four prongs of the plain-error test; consequently, we elect to notice the court’s
    error.
    IV
    23
    For the foregoing reasons, we REVERSE the district court’s sentencing
    order, and we REMAND the case with instructions to VACATE Mr. Rosales-
    Miranda’s sentence and to conduct resentencing proceedings consistent with this
    opinion.
    24