Frost v. Pryor , 749 F.3d 1212 ( 2014 )


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  •                                                                                   FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                                Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                       April 25, 2014
    Elisabeth A. Shumaker
    TENTH CIRCUIT                            Clerk of Court
    KENNETH E. FROST,
    Petitioner - Appellant,
    v.
    No. 13-3086
    REX PRYOR, Warden, Lansing
    Correctional Facility; DEREK
    SCHMIDT, Kansas Attorney General,
    Respondents - Appellees.
    APPEAL FROM THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURT
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF KANSAS
    (D.C. No. 5:11-CV-03170-SAC)
    Jean K. Gilles Phillips, The Paul E. Wilson Project for Innocence and Post Conviction
    Remedies, University of Kansas School of Law, Lawrence, Kansas, appearing for
    Appellant.
    Natalie Chalmers, Assistant Solicitor General, Office of the Kansas Attorney General,
    Topeka, Kansas, appearing for Appellees.
    Before LUCERO, McKAY, and MATHESON, Circuit Judges.
    
    Rex Pryor, Warden of the Lansing Correctional Facility, is substituted for his
    predecessor David McKune, and Derek Schmidt, Kansas Attorney General, is substituted
    for his predecessor, Steve Six, pursuant to Fed. R. App. P. 43(c)(2).
    MATHESON, Circuit Judge.
    In 2005, a Kansas state court jury convicted Kenneth Frost of aggravated indecent
    liberties with a child in violation of Kan. Stat. Ann. § 21-3504 (2004). His attorney failed
    to obtain the child’s medical records, which could have been used to impeach the child’s
    mother and challenge the prosecution’s corroborative evidence. Mr. Frost moved for a
    new trial based on ineffective assistance of counsel. After conducting hearings, the state
    trial court denied the motion and sentenced Mr. Frost to 204 months in prison. The
    Kansas Court of Appeals (“KCOA”) affirmed. Although it determined that Mr. Frost’s
    trial counsel provided deficient performance by failing to request the child’s medical
    records, the KCOA concluded counsel’s performance did not prejudice Mr. Frost. The
    Kansas Supreme Court denied discretionary review.
    Mr. Frost then sought a writ of habeas corpus in federal court under 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254, arguing (1) his attorney’s failure to investigate the child’s medical records
    violated his Sixth Amendment right to effective assistance of counsel and (2) several
    other claims involving ineffective assistance and prosecutorial misconduct. The federal
    district court denied relief on the first ineffective assistance claim relating to the child’s
    medical records because of the deference owed to state court decisions on the merits
    under the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”). The court
    dismissed Mr. Frost’s remaining claims as procedurally barred. It nonetheless issued Mr.
    Frost a Certificate of Appealability (“COA”) on “the [sole] issue [of] whether [Mr.
    -2-
    Frost’s] trial counsel was unconstitutionally ineffective in failing to investigate the
    child’s medical records.” Frost v. McKune, No. 11-3170-SAC, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *11
    (D. Kan. Mar. 5, 2013).
    Mr. Frost now appeals, arguing (1) the district court incorrectly denied relief on
    the merits of his ineffective assistance claim and (2) we should also grant relief on his
    procedurally barred claims. As to his first issue, we are statutorily bound by AEDPA to
    ask only if the state court’s decision was contrary to, or an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Supreme Court law. And the Supreme Court has instructed that
    unreasonable application occurs only when fairminded jurists could not possibly disagree
    over the correctness of the state court’s decision. Because this standard so severely
    constrains our review, we affirm the district court’s denial of habeas relief on the first
    issue. As to his second issue, we deny a COA on all remaining claims.
    I. BACKGROUND
    A. Factual History
    In reviewing a § 2254 petition, “[w]e presume that the factual findings of the state
    court are correct” unless the petitioner presents clear and convincing evidence to the
    contrary. Fairchild v. Workman, 
    579 F.3d 1134
    , 1139 (10th Cir. 2009); see also 28
    U.S.C. § 2254(e)(1). Aside from certain facts that Mr. Frost asserts he was unable to
    develop due to the ineffective assistance provided by his trial counsel, Mr. Frost does not
    challenge the state court’s determination of the facts in this case. The KCOA described
    the factual history as follows:
    -3-
    Near the end of 2000 or the beginning of 2001, A.G. (Mother) started
    dating Frost. Several months later, Mother, her 8-year-old son [] (the
    child), and the child’s twin sibling moved into Frost’s home.
    After moving into the home, the child began soiling himself in his
    underwear. According to the child, Frost was sexually abusing him and he
    was “okay” with soiling himself because he wanted Frost to think he was
    “kind of gross” and to “stay away.” Unaware of the alleged sexual abuse,
    Mother took the child to several doctors in an attempt to uncover the reason
    the child was defecating in his clothing.
    For reasons unrelated to the issues presented in this case, Mother and the
    children stopped living with Frost in March or April of 2002. Frost,
    however, continued to speak with the child and his sibling over the
    telephone for another 5 or 6 months. According to Mother, Frost’s absence
    coincided with the gradual decrease and eventual cessation of the child's
    soiling behavior. The child’s condition also improved after Dr. David
    Nichols, the child’s primary care physician, prescribed the child medication
    in December 2002.
    On May 7, 2004, Mother took the child to Cindy Coggins, a licensed
    professional counselor, in order to have him evaluated for possible
    Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD). During this visit,
    Mother relayed to Coggins her suspicion that the child had been sexually
    abused. Mother stated the child was withdrawn and had experienced daily
    bowel problems on and off for the last 3 years, although they had stopped
    in the 3 weeks prior to the visit. Coggins asked the child during this visit if
    anyone had hurt him; the child turned to look at his mother but said
    nothing. Coggins ended the session, advising Mother that if anything had
    happened to the child, he would disclose it when he was ready.
    In the fall of 2004, Frost reportedly attempted to telephone Mother and
    reinitiate contact with her. When Mother discussed Frost’s alleged phone
    call with her then fiance, the child reportedly overheard the conversation
    and his soiling behavior resumed. Around that time, the child wrote
    Mother a letter stating that someone had touched him, specifically
    mentioning Frost’s name.
    Mother called Coggins to tell her about the letter and the reoccurrence of
    the bowel condition. On November 30, 2004, Coggins met with Mother
    and the child. Mother gave Coggins the letter and, after recording notes
    -4-
    about it, Coggins discarded the letter and conducted her second counseling
    session with the child. During this session, the child reported that Frost had
    sexually abused him on two separate occasions in two different rooms,
    describing each incident in detail. As a mandatory reporter, Coggins
    reported the suspected abuse to authorities.
    The State’s investigation resulted in a referral to Sunflower House, a child
    advocacy center. Sarah Byall, a social worker at Sunflower House,
    conducted a videotaped interview of the child. During the interview, the
    child made disclosures consistent with his statements to Coggins.
    State v. Frost, No. 98,433, 
    212 P.3d 263
    , 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *1 (Kan. Ct. App. July
    31, 2009) (unpublished table decision).
    B. Procedural History
    1. State Proceedings
    a. Charging, preliminary hearing, and first trial
    On February 23, 2005, Mr. Frost was charged with one count of aggravated
    indecent liberties with a child in violation of Kan. Stat. Ann. § 21-3504 (2001).1 The
    court appointed the public defender’s office to provide Mr. Frost with representation. It
    assigned Philip Crawford to Mr. Frost’s case. The Kansas Court of Appeals described
    the preliminary hearing as follows:
    At the preliminary hearing, the child testified about two separate instances
    of abuse occurring in two separate rooms within the house. Slightly
    different from his prior statement to Coggins, however, the child further
    1
    The version of the statute in effect at the time of Mr. Frost’s alleged abuse
    proscribed “[a]ny lewd fondling or touching of the person of either the child or the
    offender, done or submitted to with the intent to arouse or to satisfy the sexual desires of
    either the child or the offender, or other.” Kan. Stat. Ann. § 21-3504(a)(3)(A) (2001).
    -5-
    testified that Frost forced him to take off his and Frost’s clothing (not that
    Frost did it himself) and that no abuse occurred in the bathroom.
    Mother also testified at the preliminary hearing, stating that during the
    relevant time period, she sought medical treatment from Dr. Nichols for the
    child’s bowel condition. After hearing Mother testify that the child never
    had experienced bowel problems before, Frost advised his attorney that
    Mother told him the child did have soiling issues prior to moving in with
    Frost in 2001. Frost directed his counsel, Phillip Crawford, to obtain the
    child’s medical records.
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *2.
    Contrary to Mr. Frost’s wishes, Mr. Crawford did not request the child’s medical
    records. According to Mr. Frost, he also “told [Mr.] Crawford on several occasions that
    [A.G., the child’s mother,] threatened to send him back to prison.” Aplt. Br. at 8. Mr.
    Frost further asserts that Mr. Crawford’s co-counsel, Michelle Durrett, was present
    during one of these occasions. 
    Id. at 8-9.
    In addition, Mr. Frost contends that he told
    Kenneth Lindquist, Mr. Crawford’s investigator, about A.G.’s threat. 
    Id. In preparation
    for Mr. Frost’s first trial, Mr. Lindquist prepared subpoenas for several witnesses who
    could testify about A.G.’s threat to send Mr. Frost “back to prison one way or another.”
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *9. The first trial began on September 19, 2005, but
    the judge declared a mistrial after the state’s witness violated a motion in limine
    prohibiting the introduction of evidence about Mr. Frost’s criminal history.
    b. Second trial, conviction, and motion for new trial
    The second trial began on November 28, 2005. Mr. Crawford did not subpoena
    any of the witnesses who indicated their willingness to testify about A.G.’s threats. Nor
    -6-
    did Mr. Crawford investigate the child’s medical records as directed by Mr. Frost. At
    trial, the child testified that Mr. Frost had sexually abused him on two occasions. When
    asked about the first instance, the child told the prosecutor that he was playing with his
    toy cars in his bedroom when Mr. Frost entered the room and
    told me to stand up and touched me, my front private part. And then he
    made me touch him in the same place. Then he made me pull down my
    pants and he touched me. And then he made me—he made me pull down
    his and he made me touch him. And then that’s when he threatened to hurt
    my mom if I ever told anybody.
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *5 (quoting Trial Tr. Vol. II, at 242-43).
    When asked about the second incident, the child testified:
    He pushed me in my mom’s room and he touched me in the private part.
    And then he told me to pull down my pants and he touched me in my
    private part again. And then he—then he made me pull down his pants and
    touched me in his private part. And then he made me do that a couple
    times. And then he pulled up his pants and left the room.
    
    Id. at *6
    (quoting Trial Tr. Vol. I, at 245).
    This testimony varied from prior accounts given by the child in several respects:
    (1) the child told counselor Cindy Coggins that Mr. Frost removed the child’s pants but
    later testified that Mr. Frost made the child remove them himself, see Trial Tr. Vol. II, at
    196-97, 274; (2) the child told Ms. Coggins and social worker Sarah Byall that Mr. Frost
    removed his own pants but later testified that Mr. Frost forced the child to do so, see 
    id. at 196-97,
    242-43, 245, 289-90; (3) the child told Ms. Coggins and Ms. Byall that Mr.
    Frost pushed him onto the bed during one incident but later testified that Mr. Frost
    pushed him onto the floor, see 
    id. at 197,
    276, 287; (4) the child told Ms. Coggins that
    -7-
    some of the abuse during the second incident occurred in the bathroom of the mother’s
    bedroom but denied this allegation at trial, see 
    id. at 197,
    284, 302-03; and (5) the child
    told Ms. Byall that Mr. Frost had touched his “back private part” but denied this
    allegation at trial, 
    id. at 293,
    323. The child also had trouble recalling the precise date
    and time of day when one of the incidents occurred. See 
    id. at 270,
    277, 291, 299-300,
    303.
    Apart from these details, however, the child’s trial testimony was consistent with
    his testimony at the preliminary hearing and his pretrial interviews with counselor Cindy
    Coggins and social worker Sarah Byall. Ms. Coggins, for example,
    testified from her clinical notes regarding the child’s disclosure. Although
    there were some discrepancies, Coggins’ notations regarding the abuse
    were consistent with the child’s testimony at trial; during the first incident
    Mother and the child’s sibling were at the grocery store, the child was
    playing in his bedroom when Frost approached him, sexually touched him
    over and under his clothing, forced the child to touch Frost under Frost’s
    clothing, and threatened the child, warning that if the child told anyone of
    the abuse Frost would hurt the child’s mom. During the second incident,
    the child was in the living room watching television when Frost pushed the
    child into the bedroom Frost shared with Mother, sexually touched the
    child, forced the child to touch him, and threatened the child, saying, “If
    you tell anybody I’ll hurt you.” According to Coggins, the child never
    wavered or hesitated in telling her what had happened. Furthermore,
    Coggins also stated the child “seemed to be relieved” after disclosing the
    alleged abuse to her, and that during later counseling sessions the child
    “seemed more peaceful” and “didn’t seem to be as withdrawn.”
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *6 (quotations omitted); see also Trial Tr. Vol. II, at
    196-97.
    -8-
    A significant portion of the trial testimony concerned the child’s bowel control
    problems. The child’s mother testified that her son had “never” experienced these
    problems before meeting Mr. Frost in 2001. Trial Tr. Vol. I, at 124. When asked by the
    prosecution on three additional occasions whether she could recall her son having soiling
    problems before 2001, she replied “no” each time. 
    Id. at 123.
    Although the child
    maintained that he intentionally soiled his pants to ward off Mr. Frost’s advances, see 
    id. Vol. II,
    at 246, 310, expert testimony suggested that the condition was beyond the child’s
    control:
    [Ms.] Coggins testified Mother identified the child’s bowel condition as
    encopresis, which Coggins described as a condition characterized by
    accidental, involuntary bowel movements. Coggins explained to the jury
    that, although encopresis generally stems from a physical medical
    condition, it also can be psychological in nature. When specifically asked
    whether, if psychologically grounded, the condition is consistent with a
    child that has been sexually abused, Coggins responded that “it can be.”
    In response, Frost presented the testimony of Dr. William Logan, a
    physician specializing in psychiatry. According to Dr. Logan, the
    accidental soiling which characterizes encopresis could be caused by
    several things, including food allergies, gastrointestinal problems, or
    anxiety. From what Dr. Logan could garner from his review of the child's
    history, there were several potential causes of the child’s soiling problem,
    including developmental delays, relocations, parental relationships, and
    numerous school changes. Dr. Logan’s testimony stressed that encopresis
    could result from any of these anxiety provoking phenomena, not just
    sexual abuse.
    When cross-examined by the State at trial, Dr. Logan admitted he was a
    forensic psychiatrist, which he defined as “one who yields a psychiatric
    opinion about some issue of legal importance.” Furthermore, when the
    prosecutor suggested that the “meat and bones” of being a forensic
    psychiatrist involved “presenting your opinions in court to a fact-finder,”
    Dr. Logan disagreed and explained that his primary function was to
    -9-
    undertake a solid clinical evaluation of the individual. Dr. Logan admitted,
    however, that in this case, he had been unable to conduct a clinical
    evaluation of the child and that his opinion was based on the limited
    records that had been made available, including the child’s interviews with
    Coggins and [with social worker Sarah Byall] at Sunflower House, as well
    as the preliminary hearing transcript.
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *2-3.
    Mr. Frost also testified at trial. He denied that he had ever seen the child
    with his pants pulled down or that the child saw him with his pants pulled down,
    and he further denied that any fondling or other sexual contact had occurred. 
    Id. at *3;
    see also Trial Tr. Vol. II, at 380-81.
    The jury convicted Mr. Frost as charged. Mr. Frost requested new counsel
    and filed a motion for a new trial based on ineffective assistance. Specifically,
    Mr. Frost faulted his counsel’s failure to request the child’s medical records,
    which revealed—contrary to the testimony of both A.G. and her son—that he had
    been treated for bowel problems in September 1996, approximately five years
    before meeting Mr. Frost. The records also included a note to the child’s school
    from August 2002 suggesting that the child’s soiling problems were attributable to
    physiological, not psychological, causes: “[S]chool needs note to have juice
    instead of milk. The child has bowel movement accidents if he drinks milk.”
    State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *3. Finally, Mr. Frost asserted that his
    counsel failed to present evidence that A.G. told witnesses in October 2004 that
    she would “send Frost back to prison one way or another.” 
    Id. at *9.
    - 10 -
    After an evidentiary hearing at which Mr. Crawford, Mr. Frost, and the
    child’s primary care physician testified, the state trial court concluded Mr.
    Crawford’s performance was not deficient and denied Mr. Frost’s motion for a
    new trial. See 
    id. at *3.
    On March 7, 2007, the court sentenced Mr. Frost to 204
    months in prison. See Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *1.
    c. Kansas Court of Appeals
    Mr. Frost appealed to the KCOA, raising, among other issues: (i) an ineffective
    assistance claim based on his counsel’s failure to investigate the child’s medical records;
    and (ii) three other claims, including an ineffective assistance claim based on his
    counsel’s failure to seek testimony about A.G.’s threats to send Mr. Frost “back to prison
    one way or another” and two prosecutorial misconduct claims regarding commentary on
    witness credibility.
    i.      Ineffective assistance of counsel for failure to investigate medical
    records
    A majority of the KCOA panel affirmed the state trial court’s rejection of Mr.
    Frost’s ineffective assistance claim. State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *8-9.
    Although the majority determined that trial counsel’s failure to investigate the victim’s
    medical history was constitutionally deficient, see 
    id. at *5,
    it nonetheless held that Mr.
    Frost was not prejudiced because of the “overwhelming amount of evidence” against
    him, 
    id. at *8.
    The KCOA began its prejudice analysis by articulating the following
    standard:
    - 11 -
    To establish prejudice, a defendant must demonstrate a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s deficient performance, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.
    
    Id. at *5.
    Applying this standard to the facts of Mr. Frost’s case, the KCOA determined
    that:
    [Mr.] Frost must demonstrate a reasonable probability that he would have
    been acquitted by the jury if they had known (1) the child was seen by a
    doctor with regard to a soiling condition 5 years earlier, when he was 4
    years old, and (2) there was a note dated August 19, 2002, in the child’s
    medical records stating “school needs note to have juice instead of milk.
    The child has bowel movement accidents if he drinks milk.” Given the
    overwhelming evidence of Frost’s guilt presented at trial, we are not
    persuaded that the jury would have reached a different result had it been
    presented with the information to which Frost refers.
    
    Id. The KCOA
    observed that with respect to the evidence presented to the jury, “when
    compared to what was consistent with the child’s statements, the inconsistencies are
    nominal.” 
    Id. at *7.
    According to the KCOA, the “child’s accounts established the
    elements of the crime for which [Mr.] Frost was convicted, and it was the jury’s function
    to determine his credibility.” 
    Id. Further, the
    “jury was made well aware of evidence
    explaining away the significance of encopresis, yet chose nevertheless to convict [Mr.]
    Frost.” 
    Id. Thus, the
    “medical records argued for by [Mr.] Frost pale[d] in comparison.”
    
    Id. As for
    the evidence not presented to the jury, the court determined that the
    revelation that the child had suffered from soiling issues five years before meeting Mr.
    Frost would not “have swayed the minds of the jurors.” 
    Id. at *8.
    “Even if [Mr.]
    - 12 -
    Crawford had introduced evidence proving that the child had bowel problems long before
    meeting [Mr.] Frost, this fact does not contradict the child’s direct testimony that [Mr.]
    Frost sexually abused him and that he was ‘okay’ with soiling himself because he wanted
    [Mr.] Frost to think he was ‘kind of gross’ and to ‘stay away.’” 
    Id. Indeed, the
    state
    court observed, “because the record cites no medical cause for the bowel problems that
    occurred when the child was 4 years old, the jury would have been free to infer that the
    child soiled himself in response to anxiety or trauma back then and, because the bowel
    condition recurred, there must have been some anxiety or trauma occurring around the
    time the child moved in with [Mr.] Frost.” 
    Id. Finally, the
    state court found the “child’s
    young age, 4 years old, at the time of the pre-abuse soiling[,] render[ed] negligible any
    effect [the] medical records could have had in impeaching the child’s testimony, at 13
    years old, that no soiling problems existed prior to coming into contact with [Mr.] Frost.”
    
    Id. Accordingly, the
    KCOA affirmed the state trial court’s conviction because
    “evidence establishing one solitary incident of pre-abuse soiling” could not “have had
    any likelihood of changing the result at trial.” 
    Id. One judge
    dissented on the issue of prejudice. According to the dissenting
    member of the panel, “one objective fact seemed to corroborate both the mother’s
    testimony and that of the child: his problem of soiling his pants began only after he had
    moved in with [Mr.] Frost and, thus, presumably in response to [Mr.] Frost’s abuse.” 
    Id. at *13
    (Leben, J., dissenting). Had Mr. Crawford requested the child’s medical history,
    - 13 -
    “the cross-examination of those witnesses would have been much stronger,” and the “jury
    might well have considered the objective foundation of the State’s case sufficiently
    shaken that reasonable doubt of guilt had been shown.” 
    Id. ii. Remaining
    claims
    The KCOA also rejected Mr. Frost’s claims that (1) his trial counsel was
    ineffective in failing to subpoena witnesses to provide testimony on A.G.’s threat to send
    Mr. Frost “back to prison one way or another” and (2) the prosecution improperly
    attacked the credibility of Mr. Frost’s expert. See 
    id. at *9-11.2
    d. Kansas Supreme Court
    Mr. Frost petitioned the Kansas Supreme Court for discretionary review of the
    ineffective assistance claim based on trial counsel’s failure to investigate the child’s
    medical history. He did not include the other ineffective assistance claim or the
    prosecutorial misconduct claims in his petition. See Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    ,
    at *2 (citing Aplt. Pet. for Review at 1, 5-11). The Kansas Supreme Court denied review
    on September 7, 2010.
    2. Federal Proceedings
    On September 28, 2011, Mr. Frost filed a federal habeas petition under 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254, alleging four grounds for relief: (1) ineffective assistance for failure to
    2
    The KCOA did not address Mr. Frost’s second claim of prosecutorial
    misconduct—that the prosecution improperly bolstered the child’s credibility in its
    closing argument. Because we determine that all three of these claims are procedurally
    barred, as explained below, we do not describe the KCOA’s analysis in more detail.
    - 14 -
    investigate the child’s medical history; (2) ineffective assistance for failure to elicit
    testimony on A.G.’s threats to send Mr. Frost “back to prison one way or another”;
    (3) improper prosecutorial commentary attacking Mr. Frost’s expert during closing
    arguments; and (4) improper prosecutorial commentary bolstering the child’s credibility
    during closing arguments.
    a. Ineffective assistance claim based on failure to investigate the child’s medical
    history
    Applying the considerable deference due to state decisions on the merits under
    AEDPA, the district court considered and rejected Mr. Frost’s claim that his trial counsel
    provided ineffective assistance by failing to investigate the child’s medical history. See
    Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *3-10. Although the district court observed that it
    would be a close call under de novo review, it felt “compelled” by “the narrow scope of
    review in habeas cases,” 
    id. at *10,
    to dismiss Mr. Frost’s petition because the KCOA’s
    resolution of the prejudice issue was neither contrary to nor an unreasonable application
    of Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984), which enunciated the federal standard
    for evaluating ineffective assistance claims.3 The district court nevertheless granted a
    COA on this claim. See Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *11.
    3
    The district court acknowledged that the KCOA had determined that Mr.
    Crawford’s performance was constitutionally deficient, but declined to address that issue
    in more detail. See Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *10.
    - 15 -
    b. Procedurally barred claims
    The federal district court determined that Mr. Frost’s remaining claims were
    procedurally barred because they were not fairly presented to the Kansas Supreme Court
    and would now be untimely under Kansas’s procedural rules. See Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *2; see also 28 U.S.C. § 2254(b)(1); O’Sullivan v. Boerckel, 
    526 U.S. 838
    , 845, 848-49 (1999) (requiring state prisoners to give state courts “one full
    opportunity” to resolve constitutional issues related to their custody by “invoking one
    complete round of the State’s established appellate review process,” including
    discretionary review).4 Nor could Mr. Frost satisfy either of the exceptions to this
    anticipatory procedural bar because he had failed to (1) “demonstrate cause for his failure
    to present his claims to the state court,” Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *2, or (2)
    “supplement his constitutional claim with a ‘colorable showing of factual innocence,’” 
    id. (quoting Kuhlmann
    v. Wilson, 
    477 U.S. 436
    , 454 (1986)). Accordingly, the district court
    4
    In particular, the district court rejected the following claims: (1) Mr. Frost’s
    ineffectiveness claim concerning his counsel’s failure to present evidence about A.G.’s
    threat that she would “send him back to prison one way or another”; (2) his claim
    regarding improper prosecutorial commentary attacking Mr. Frost’s expert during closing
    arguments; and (3) his claim regarding improper prosecutorial commentary bolstering the
    child’s credibility during closing arguments. Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *1-
    2.
    - 16 -
    dismissed these claims and declined to grant a COA on any of them. Mr. Frost filed a
    timely notice of appeal.5
    II. JURISDICTION AND STANDARD OF REVIEW
    On appeal, Mr. Frost presses all four issues raised in the district court. A COA is a
    prerequisite to appellate jurisdiction in a habeas action. See 28 U.S.C. § 2253(c)(1)(A);
    Miller-El v. Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 335-36 (2003). As noted above, the district court
    granted a COA “on the issue whether [Mr. Frost’s] trial counsel was unconstitutionally
    ineffective in failing to investigate the child’s medical records.” Frost v. McKune, 
    2013 WL 812153
    , at *11. We therefore have jurisdiction to review this claim pursuant to 28
    U.S.C. §§ 1291 and 2253.6
    The KCOA rejected this claim on the merits. Our review is therefore governed by
    AEDPA, which “erects a formidable barrier to federal habeas relief,” Burt v. Titlow, 
    134 S. Ct. 10
    , 16 (2013), and “requires federal courts to give significant deference to state
    court decisions” on the merits. Lockett v. Trammel, 
    711 F.3d 1218
    , 1230 (10th Cir.
    5
    On May 7, 2013, the district court issued an order granting Mr. Frost leave to
    proceed in forma pauperis (“ifp”) on appeal.
    6
    As noted above, the district court did not issue a COA on any of the claims that it
    dismissed as procedurally barred. Mr. Frost argues the merits of these claims in his
    opening brief, but he does not expressly seek a COA. See Aplt. Br. at 29-38. We may
    nevertheless construe his notice of appeal as a request for a COA. See United States v.
    Gordon, 
    172 F.3d 753
    , 753-54 (10th Cir. 1999) (“Although Defendant did not renew his
    request for a COA in this court, we construe his notice of appeal as such a request.”
    (citing Fed. R. App. P. 22(b)(2))). We therefore consider whether Mr. Frost is entitled to
    a COA on these claims later in this opinion.
    - 17 -
    2013); see also Hooks v. Workman, 
    689 F.3d 1148
    , 1162-63 (10th Cir. 2012) (“This
    highly deferential standard for evaluating state-court rulings demands state-court
    decisions be given the benefit of the doubt.” (quotations omitted)).
    Under AEDPA, we may not grant a state prisoner’s petition under § 2254 with
    respect to “any claim that was adjudicated on the merits in State court proceedings”
    unless the prisoner can show that the state court’s adjudication of the claim “resulted in a
    decision that was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of, clearly
    established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States.” 28
    U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1); see also Harrington v. Richter, 
    131 S. Ct. 770
    , 783-84 (2011).
    “Clearly established law is determined by the United States Supreme Court, and
    refers to the Court’s holdings, as opposed to the dicta.” 
    Lockett, 711 F.3d at 1231
    (quotations omitted). A state court decision is “contrary to” the Supreme Court’s clearly
    established precedent “if the state court applies a rule different from the governing law
    set forth in [Supreme Court] cases, or if it decides a case differently than [the Supreme
    Court has] done on a set of materially indistinguishable facts.” Bell v. Cone, 
    535 U.S. 685
    , 694 (2002) (quotations omitted).
    A state court decision is an “unreasonable application” of Supreme Court
    precedent if “the state court identifies the correct governing legal rule from [the] Court’s
    cases but unreasonably applies it to the facts of the particular state prisoner’s case.”
    - 18 -
    Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 407 (2000) (opinion of O’Connor, J.);7 accord Wiggins
    v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 520 (2003). “Evaluating whether a rule application was
    unreasonable requires considering the rule’s specificity. The more general the rule”—
    like the one adopted in Strickland—“the more leeway [state] courts have in reaching
    outcomes in case-by-case determinations.” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    (quoting
    Yarborough v. Alvarado, 
    541 U.S. 652
    , 664 (2004)). An “unreasonable application of
    federal law” is therefore “different from an incorrect application of federal law.” 
    Id. at 785
    (quoting 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 410
    (opinion of O’Connor, J.)).
    We may “issue the writ” only when the petitioner shows “there is no possibility
    fairminded jurists could disagree that the state court’s decision conflicts with [the
    Supreme] Court’s precedents.” 
    Id. at 786
    (emphasis added). “Thus, “even a strong case
    for relief does not mean that the state court’s contrary conclusion was unreasonable.” 
    Id. “‘If this
    standard is difficult to meet’—and it is—‘that is because it was meant to be.’”
    
    Titlow, 134 S. Ct. at 16
    (quoting 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    ). Indeed, AEDPA stops just
    “short of imposing a complete bar on federal court relitigation of claims already rejected
    in state proceedings.” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    . Accordingly, “[w]e will not lightly
    conclude that a State’s criminal justice system has experienced the ‘extreme malfunction’
    7
    The Supreme Court’s opinions in Williams were fractured. Justice O’Connor
    authored the opinion for the Court interpreting the meaning of “contrary to” and
    “unreasonable application” in § 2254(d)(1). Justice Stevens authored the opinion for the
    Court interpreting the “clearly established” element. We therefore specify the authoring
    justice when citing to Williams.
    - 19 -
    for which federal habeas relief is the remedy.” 
    Titlow, 134 S. Ct. at 16
    (quoting 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    ).
    In making this assessment, however, “we review the district court’s legal analysis
    of the state court decision de novo” and its factual findings, if any, for clear error. Byrd v.
    Workman, 
    645 F.3d 1159
    , 1165 (10th Cir. 2011) (quotations omitted). Finally, our
    review is “limited to the record that was before” the KCOA. Cullen v. Pinholster, 131 S.
    Ct. 1388, 1398 (2011).
    III. DISCUSSION
    Mr. Frost raises four grounds for relief: (1) ineffective assistance of counsel in
    failing to investigate the child’s medical records; (2) ineffective assistance of counsel in
    failing to elicit testimony about A.G.’s threats to send Mr. Frost “back to prison one way
    or another,” State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *8-9; (3) improper prosecutorial
    comment assailing the credibility of Mr. Frost’s expert; and (4) improper prosecutorial
    comment vouching for the credibility of the child. For the reasons stated below, we
    (A) affirm the district court’s decision on the first ground and (B) deny COA on the
    remaining three claims.
    A. Ineffective Assistance of Counsel for Failure to Request Medical Records
    1. Legal Background
    The Supreme Court has held that the Sixth Amendment right to counsel includes a
    right to effective representation. Under Strickland, a defendant must demonstrate two
    elements to prove ineffective assistance:
    - 20 -
    First, the defendant must show that counsel’s performance was deficient.
    This requires showing that counsel made errors so serious that counsel was
    not functioning as the “counsel” guaranteed the defendant by the Sixth
    Amendment. Second, the defendant must show that the deficient
    performance prejudiced the defense. This requires showing that counsel’s
    errors were so serious as to deprive the defendant of a fair trial, a trial
    whose result is 
    reliable. 466 U.S. at 687
    .
    To establish constitutionally deficient performance, “the defendant must show that
    counsel’s representation fell below an objective standard of reasonableness.” 
    Id. at 688;
    see also 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 390-91
    (opinion of Stevens, J.). A court considering such
    a claim must apply a “strong presumption” that counsel’s representation was within the
    “wide range” of reasonable assistance. 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 689
    . Because we agree
    with the KCOA’s conclusion that Mr. Crawford’s failure to investigate the child’s
    medical records fell below this standard, see State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *5, we
    focus here on Strickland’s prejudice inquiry.8
    To establish prejudice, a defendant “must show that there is a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding
    would have been different.” 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    . It is not enough “to show that
    the errors had some conceivable effect on the outcome of the proceeding.” Richter, 131
    8
    Indeed, under Strickland, counsel “has a duty to make reasonable investigations
    or to make a reasonable decision that makes particular investigations unnecessary.”
    
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 691
    . Counsel’s failure in this case to obtain the child’s medical
    records plainly fell below an objective standard of reasonableness. See 
    id. at 687-88.
    - 21 -
    S. Ct. at 787 (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 687
    ). Rather, the “likelihood of a different
    result must be substantial . . . .” 
    Id. at 792
    (emphasis added).
    Thus, “[i]n assessing prejudice under Strickland, the question is not whether a
    court can be certain counsel’s performance had no effect on the outcome or whether it is
    possible a reasonable doubt might have been established if counsel acted differently.” 
    Id. at 791.
    “Instead, Strickland asks whether it is ‘reasonably likely’ the result would have
    been different.” 
    Id. at 792
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 696
    ). “This does not require
    a showing that counsel’s actions ‘more likely than not altered the outcome,’ but the
    difference between Strickland’s prejudice standard and a more-probable-than-not
    standard is slight and matters ‘only in the rarest case.’” 
    Id. (quoting Strickland,
    466 U.S.
    at 693, 697).
    2. Strickland Review Under AEDPA
    As noted above, because the KCOA rejected Mr. Frost’s ineffective assistance
    claim on the merits, we must evaluate this claim through AEDPA’s deferential lens. See
    28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1). We therefore may grant relief only if Mr. Frost demonstrates
    that the KCOA’s decision was “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established” Supreme Court law. Id.; see also 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 783-84
    .
    “It is past question that the rule set forth in Strickland qualifies as ‘clearly
    established Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States.”
    
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 391
    (opinion of Stevens, J.). Thus, “[i]f a state court were to reject
    a prisoner’s claim of ineffective assistance of counsel on the grounds that [he] had not
    - 22 -
    established by a preponderance of the evidence that the result of his criminal proceeding
    would have been different” absent counsel’s deficient performance, that decision would
    be contrary to clearly established Supreme Court precedent because the prisoner “need
    only demonstrate a ‘reasonable probability that . . . the result of the proceeding would
    have been different.’” 
    Id. at 405-06
    (opinion of O’Connor, J.) (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ) (emphasis added); accord 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 792
    (Strickland does not
    “require a showing that counsel’s actions ‘more likely than not altered the outcome’”
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 693
    )).
    Even if a state court applied the proper “reasonable probability” standard from
    Strickland, we may still grant relief if it applied the standard “unreasonabl[y],” 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254(d)(1). However, an “‘unreasonable application of federal law is different from an
    incorrect application of federal law.’” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 785
    (quoting 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 410
    (opinion of O’Connor, J.)). Although making out a Strickland claim can be
    an onerous burden, “[e]stablishing that a state court’s application of Strickland was
    unreasonable under § 2254(d) is all the more difficult.” 
    Id. at 788
    (emphasis added).
    Indeed, “[t]he Strickland standard is a general one, so the range of reasonable
    applications is substantial.” 
    Id. The Supreme
    Court has articulated a test for reasonableness: a state court decision
    is reasonable “so long as ‘fairminded jurists could disagree’ on the correctness of the
    state court’s decision.” 
    Id. at 786
    (quoting 
    Alvarado, 541 U.S. at 664
    ).
    - 23 -
    The Court’s “fairminded jurists” test thus serves as a proxy for “unreasonable
    application.” It is designed to help federal courts reviewing § 2254 habeas motions to
    determine whether a state court decision that would be incorrect under de novo review is
    also unreasonable. Under the test, if all fairminded jurists would agree the state court
    decision was incorrect, then it was unreasonable and the habeas corpus writ should be
    granted. If, however, some fairminded jurists could possibly agree with the state court
    decision, then it was not unreasonable and the writ should be denied. See 
    Lockett, 711 F.3d at 1231
    (“We may reverse only if all ‘fairminded jurists’ would agree that the state
    court got it wrong.” (quoting 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    )); Loggins v. Thomas, 
    654 F.3d 1204
    , 1220 (11th Cir. 2011) (“[I]f some fairminded jurists could agree with the state
    court’s decision, although others might disagree, federal habeas relief must be denied.”).
    We must apply the Supreme Court’s “fairminded jurists” test to Mr. Frost’s case.
    Thus, to obtain relief under § 2254(d), Mr. Frost must demonstrate “there is no possibility
    fairminded jurists could disagree” that he met his burden before the KCOA to show a
    reasonable likelihood of a different result if the medical records had been used at trial.
    See 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    (“A state court’s determination that a claim lacks merit
    precludes federal habeas relief so long as ‘fairminded jurists could disagree’ on the
    correctness of the state court’s decision.” (quoting 
    Alvarado, 541 U.S. at 664
    )).
    - 24 -
    3. Analysis
    Mr. Frost argues the KCOA (1) relied on a preponderance standard contrary to
    Strickland’s “reasonable probability” prejudice standard; and (2) unreasonably applied
    the “reasonable probability” standard to the facts of his case. We disagree.
    a. The KCOA did not apply a standard contrary to Strickland’s prejudice
    standard.
    First, the KCOA did not apply a standard that was “contrary to” Strickland. The
    KCOA correctly recognized that “[t]o establish prejudice, a defendant must demonstrate
    a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s deficient performance, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *5. The
    Supreme Court has recently reiterated the very same standard: “The defendant must
    show that there is a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors,
    the result of the proceeding would have been different.” 
    Pinholster, 131 S. Ct. at 1403
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ).
    Mr. Frost argues that the KCOA used an “outcome determinative” standard that
    “is directly contrary to clearly established Supreme Court precedent.” Aplt. Br. at 25. As
    Mr. Frost observes, some language in the KCOA opinion perhaps suggests it held Mr.
    Frost to a higher standard than that dictated by Strickland. At one point, the KCOA states
    that “[g]iven the overwhelming evidence of [Mr.] Frost’s guilt presented at trial, we are
    not persuaded that the jury would have reached a different result had it been presented
    with the information to which [Mr.] Frost refers.” State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at
    - 25 -
    *5 (emphasis added)). This phrasing (“would have”), Mr. Frost argues, evokes a “more
    likely than not” preponderance standard, which conflicts with Strickland’s “reasonable
    probability” standard. See 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 406
    (opinion of O’Connor, J.); see also
    Aplt. Br. at 26.9
    But the foregoing articulation of the prejudice standard does not render the
    KCOA’s decision “contrary to” clearly established “Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court.” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1). The Court has observed that similar use of the
    words “would not have” does not necessarily “imply any particular standard of
    probability.” Holland v. Jackson, 
    542 U.S. 649
    , 654 (2004) (per curiam). Indeed, when
    viewed in its entirety, the KCOA’s proper articulation of the prejudice standard in other
    parts of its opinion confirms that it was not relying on an impermissible “more likely than
    not” preponderance standard. See 
    id. at 654
    (“We have held that such use of the
    unadorned word ‘probably’ is permissible shorthand when the complete Strickland
    standard is elsewhere recited.” (citing Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 23-24 (2002)
    (per curiam))). The KCOA described the evidence against Mr. Frost as “overwhelming”
    9
    At oral argument, Mr. Frost raised for the first time the argument that the KCOA
    erred in requiring a reasonable probability of “acquittal,” as opposed to a “different
    result.” Because “issues may not be raised for the first time at oral argument,” United
    States v. Abdenbi, 
    361 F.3d 1282
    , 1289 (10th Cir. 2004), we decline to address this
    argument. Even if we did, we note that this articulation of Strickland’s prejudice
    standard is not “diametrically different” from, or “mutually opposed” to, clearly
    established Supreme Court law, 
    Williams, 529 U.S. at 406
    (opinion of O’Connor, J.). In
    Strickland itself, the Court observed that “the question is whether there is a reasonable
    probability that, absent the errors, the fact finder would have had a reasonable doubt
    respecting guilt.” 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 695
    (emphasis added).
    - 26 -
    and concluded that it did “not believe that evidence establishing one solitary incident of
    pre-abuse soiling could have had any likelihood of changing the result at trial.” State v.
    Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *8 (emphasis added). Although perhaps based on an
    exaggerated reading of the record, this articulation of the prejudice standard is within the
    permissible bounds of Strickland’s admonition against requiring a preponderance of
    evidence. See 
    Pinholster, 131 S. Ct. at 1403
    (“A reasonable probability . . . requires a
    ‘substantial,’ not just ‘conceivable,’ likelihood of a different result.” (quoting 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 792
    )).
    Accordingly, we hold that the KCOA’s decision was not “contrary to” clearly
    established law as determined by the Supreme Court, see 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1), and Mr.
    Frost is not entitled to relief on this ground.
    b. The KCOA did not unreasonably apply Strickland’s reasonable probability
    standard.
    Second, although the issue is close, Mr. Frost has not shown the KCOA’s ruling
    on Strickland’s prejudice standard was “so lacking in justification that there was an
    error . . . beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement.” 
    Titlow, 134 S. Ct. at 16
    (quoting 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    -87) (emphasis added).
    At trial, the State presented evidence to link the victim’s encopresis problems with
    the alleged abuse. In its opening statement and closing argument, the State argued there
    was a causal connection between the encopresis and the abuse. See Trial Tr. Vol. I, at
    93-95; 
    id. Vol. II,
    at 428-29. It relied primarily on the mother’s testimony (1) denying
    - 27 -
    the victim had any encopresis problems before her relationship with Mr. Frost and
    (2) saying the problems arose during the time they were living with Mr. Frost and when
    Mr. Frost attempted to contact her two years later. See 
    id. Vol. I,
    at 93-95, 123-27; 
    id. Vol. II,
    at 428-29. Counselor Cindy Coggins testified the mother told her in May 2004
    that the child had experienced encopresis for three years. See 
    id. Vol. II,
    at 192. She also
    testified encopresis can be related to sexual abuse. See 
    id. at 190-91.
    The defense,
    having to accept the mother’s version of when the encopresis started because it had not
    obtained the records showing otherwise, attempted to rebut the encopresis connection
    through expert witness Dr. Logan, who suggested physiological and psychological factors
    unrelated to sexual abuse. See 
    id. Vol. I,
    at 100-06; 
    id. Vol. II,
    at 338-39, 415-16.
    But it turns out the mother’s testimony was false as to when the problems began.
    Mr. Frost’s lawyer failed to obtain records showing the child’s primary care physician,
    Dr. Nichols, treated the child for encopresis roughly four years before he and his mother
    met Mr. Frost. The defense lawyer’s failure to obtain these records violated the
    performance element of Strickland. Whether his failure violated Strickland’s prejudice
    element is less clear. The records undermine the mother’s credibility and weaken the
    evidence of correlation between the encopresis and the abuse. On the other hand, they
    confirm the child had encopresis and do not foreclose that the abuse revived or
    exacerbated that condition.
    The KCOA provided several reasons why it concluded trial counsel’s error did not
    prejudice Mr. Frost. The court specifically relied on the child’s mostly consistent
    - 28 -
    testimony, the limited impeachment value of the medical records as to the child’s
    allegations that he had been abused, the supporting testimony of counselor Coggins and
    social worker Byall, and the jury’s decision not to credit Mr. Frost’s expert. See State v.
    Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *6-8. Additionally, the KCOA observed that “one solitary
    incident of pre-abuse soiling” was not inconsistent with the prosecution’s theory that the
    child’s condition became indisputably worse after meeting Mr. Frost. 
    Id. at *8.
    Mr. Frost now argues the mother’s false denial about previous encopresis
    problems shows she tried to induce her son to tell a false story to two therapists, the
    police, the preliminary hearing court, and the trial court jury. But that is only one
    possible explanation for her testimony. She may have forgotten the earlier doctor visit
    for encopresis or at least the timing of it. Or she may have thought, mistakenly and
    wrongly, that admitting to the earlier encopresis would weaken her son’s truthful
    testimony and the State’s case.
    As the prosecution said in closing argument, the outcome of this case turned on
    whether the jury believed the child’s testimony about the two incidents. See Trial Tr.
    Vol. II, at 404. We have carefully reviewed the entire record. The child’s testimony was
    specific and mostly consistent about the primary location of each incident, Mr. Frost’s
    aggressive behavior, the general sequence of events, and Mr. Frost’s threats to harm his
    mother if he told anyone. The minor inconsistencies with previous tellings were more in
    keeping with a credible repetition of the events than a story that is identical from one
    telling to another. The child not only endured the ordeal of talking in court about the
    - 29 -
    abuse, but also the embarrassment of discussing his encopresis condition and his belief it
    would ward off Mr. Frost.
    The KCOA’s decision did not discuss the credibility of A.G.—the child’s
    mother—in its prejudice application. As the dissent observes, the new evidence that the
    child had suffered from a bowel control problem before meeting Mr. Frost and that this
    problem was potentially attributable to milk (as opposed to psychological trauma) had
    impeachment potential given that A.G. repeatedly denied her son had experienced soiling
    problems before her meeting Mr. Frost. See Trial Tr. Vol. I, at 123-24 (responding “no”
    three times when asked if her son had experienced these problems before and asserting he
    had “never” had soiling problems during his tumultuous childhood).
    Although the medical records may weaken the mother’s credibility, they do not
    materially undermine the child’s. It was the child, not his mother, who testified at trial
    about the two alleged incidents of sexual abuse. His testimony established the elements
    of the offense, specifically identifying Mr. Frost. The KCOA reasonably concluded that
    the value of impeaching a thirteen-year-old over whether he remembered soiling himself
    when he was four years old was limited when compared with the other evidence
    indicating Mr. Frost’s guilt. See State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *7-8. Indeed,
    although the child denied having accidents before meeting Mr. Frost, see Trial Tr. Vol. II,
    at 246, he could not even remember precisely how long he had been having the accidents
    between the ages of nine and twelve. When asked whether he had “been having trouble
    - 30 -
    with those accidents for about three years” before seeing Ms. Coggins in May 2004, the
    child responded, “I don’t remember.” 
    Id. at 265.
    In light of the foregoing, we cannot say Mr. Frost has shown the KCOA’s ruling
    on his Strickland claim “was so lacking in justification that there was an error well
    understood and comprehended in existing law beyond any possibility for fairminded
    disagreement.” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    -87 (emphasis added). We may be inclined to
    agree with Mr. Frost and our dissenting colleague if our review were de novo. We also
    might be more inclined to side with Mr. Frost if the test were whether the KCOA’s
    analysis alone was unreasonable. For example, the KCOA’s description of the evidence
    against Mr. Frost as “overwhelming,” State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *5, and its
    disbelief that the medical records “could have any likelihood of changing the result at
    trial,” 
    id. at *8
    (emphasis added), were both overstatements.
    But the critical question is whether the KCOA’s conclusion was itself
    unreasonable. See 
    Byrd, 645 F.3d at 1170-71
    (declining to grant relief based on state
    court’s “failure to conduct the specific analysis” requested by the petitioner because we
    “fail[ed] to see how its conclusion . . . could be construed as being in such tension with
    governing U.S. Supreme Court precedents, or so inadequately supported by the record, or
    so arbitrary as to be unreasonable” (quotations omitted) (emphasis added)).
    Although we may disagree with the state court’s conclusion, we cannot say Mr.
    Frost has shown “there is no possibility fairminded jurists could disagree” over the
    correctness of its decision. Howell v. Trammell, 
    728 F.3d 1202
    , 1213 (10th Cir. 2013)
    - 31 -
    (quoting and emphasizing 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    )); see also 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    (“[E]ven a strong case for relief does not mean the state court’s contrary conclusion was
    unreasonable.”). That is the very narrow space that AEDPA and the Supreme Court have
    left us.10 We are therefore constrained to affirm.
    Accordingly, because “fairminded jurists could disagree” over the correctness of
    the KCOA’s conclusion that Mr. Frost failed to establish a reasonable or “substantial”
    10
    In this regard, we think the dissent’s true quarrel is with the Supreme Court’s
    construction of AEDPA review, not the application of the AEDPA standard in this case.
    Although the dissent correctly observes AEDPA “does not require all reasonable jurists
    to agree that the state court was unreasonable,” House v. Hatch, 
    527 F.3d 1010
    , 1019
    (10th Cir. 2008), the statute “precludes federal habeas relief so long as ‘fairminded jurists
    could disagree’ on the correctness of the state court’s decision.” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    (quoting 
    Alvarado, 541 U.S. at 664
    ).
    Nor, contrary to the dissent’s assertion, does this deference “by definition preclude
    relief,” 
    Miller-El, 537 U.S. at 340
    , on all ineffective assistance claims advanced by
    federal habeas petitioners. For example, if the new evidence in this case squarely
    undermined the child’s credibility, then a state decision concluding the defendant failed
    to establish prejudice would be an “error well understood and comprehended in existing
    law beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement.” 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 787
    ; see,
    e.g., Cannedy v. Adams, 
    706 F.3d 1148
    , 1164-65 (9th Cir. 2013) (concluding that the
    state court unreasonably applied Strickland’s prejudice element because new evidence
    that the alleged sexual abuse victim said she “just made the allegations of abuse up so she
    could get away from it all” went “to the heart of her credibility” and “would have been
    the cornerstone of Petitioner’s case”), cert. denied, 
    134 S. Ct. 10
    01 (2014). So, too, if
    deficient performance prevented a defendant from presenting considerable mitigation
    evidence in the penalty phase of a capital case sufficient to cause “at least one juror” to
    “strike a different balance,” 
    Wiggins, 539 U.S. at 537
    , or from presenting strong alibi
    evidence, see, e.g., Stitts v. Wilson, 
    713 F.3d 887
    , 894 (7th Cir. 2013) (no “fairminded
    jurist” would agree with state court’s finding of no prejudice where the introduction of
    alibi witnesses would have transformed the trial “from a one-sided presentation of the
    prosecution’s case into a battle between competing eyewitness testimony”), cert. denied,
    
    134 S. Ct. 1282
    (2014).
    - 32 -
    likelihood of a different result, 
    Richter, 131 S. Ct. at 786
    , 792, we hold under AEDPA
    review that the KCOA did not unreasonably apply Strickland’s prejudice standard to the
    facts of this case.11 Mr. Frost is therefore not entitled to habeas relief on this ground.
    B. Expanding the COA on Mr. Frost’s Remaining Issues
    In addition to the sole issue on which the federal district court granted a COA, Mr.
    Frost appeals the district court’s dismissal of (1) his claim that trial counsel provided
    ineffective assistance by failing to present evidence about A.G.’s threat to send him
    “back to prison one way or another”; (2) his claim that the prosecutor improperly assailed
    his expert’s credibility during closing arguments; and (3) his claim that the prosecutor
    improperly vouched for the child’s credibility during closing arguments.12
    As previously noted, Mr. Frost may not appeal the federal district court’s decision
    without a COA. 
    Miller-El, 537 U.S. at 335-36
    ; 
    Lockett, 711 F.3d at 1249
    . The district
    court dismissed each of these claims on procedural grounds and refused to grant a COA
    11
    In reaching this conclusion, we do not consider A.G.’s alleged threat to send Mr.
    Frost “back to prison one way or another,” State v. Frost, 
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *9. Mr.
    Frost advances an ineffective assistance claim based on his trial counsel’s failure to elicit
    testimony on this threat, but, as we explain below, we deny COA on this claim because
    reasonable jurists would not debate the district court’s determination that Mr. Frost is
    procedurally barred from raising this claim in federal court. Accordingly, our prejudice
    inquiry here does not include this evidence. See 
    Hooks, 689 F.3d at 1191-92
    (rejecting
    five of petitioner’s six ineffective assistance claims on performance grounds and
    conducting prejudice inquiry on remaining claim without considering additional evidence
    related to the other five claims of ineffective assistance).
    12
    Mr. Frost also asserts that the cumulative error from these three claims and his
    other ineffective assistance claim requires reversal.
    - 33 -
    for any of them. Although Mr. Frost does not explicitly seek a COA, we construe his
    filing of a notice of appeal as a request for a COA. See Fed. R. App. P. 22(b)(2) (“If no
    express request for a certificate is filed, the notice of appeal constitutes a request
    addressed to the judges of the court of appeals.”); see also United States v. Gordon, 
    172 F.3d 753
    , 753-54 (10th Cir. 1999) (citing Fed. R. App. P. 22(b)(2)).
    1. Standard for Granting COA
    Under AEDPA, we may not issue a COA unless “the applicant has made a
    substantial showing of the denial of a constitutional right.” 28 U.S.C. § 2253; see also
    Slack v. McDaniel, 
    529 U.S. 473
    , 483 (2000). When a district court dismisses a petition
    on procedural grounds “without reaching the prisoner’s underlying constitutional claim,”
    a COA cannot issue unless the petitioner shows both (1) “that jurists of reason would find
    it debatable whether the petition states a valid claim of the denial of a constitutional
    right” and (2) “that jurists of reason would find it debatable whether the district court was
    correct in its procedural ruling.” 
    Slack, 529 U.S. at 484
    ; accord Dulworth v. Jones, 
    496 F.3d 1133
    , 1137 (10th Cir. 2007). Rather than addressing these two threshold
    requirements in order, we may “resolve the issue whose answer is more apparent from
    the record and arguments.” 
    Slack, 529 U.S. at 485
    .
    2. Legal Background
    a. Exhaustion and anticipatory procedural bar
    A federal court cannot grant a state prisoner’s habeas petition unless the petitioner
    has exhausted his claims in state court. See 28 U.S.C. § 2254(b)(1). Relevant here, a
    - 34 -
    state prisoner must give state courts “one full opportunity to resolve any constitutional
    issues by invoking one complete round of the State’s established appellate review
    process.” O’Sullivan v. Boerckel, 
    526 U.S. 838
    , 845 (1999). Thus, any claims not
    included in a petition for discretionary review are unexhausted. See 
    id. Mr. Frost’s
    claims are now and have long been untimely under Kansas state law.
    See Kan. Sup. Ct. R. 8.03(a)(1) (“jurisdictional” 30 day limit for petitioning state
    supreme court for discretionary review); 
    id. 183(c)(3) (allowing
    collateral post-conviction
    relief for “trial errors affecting constitutional rights” that “could have been raised on
    appeal” only when “exceptional circumstances excuse the failure to appeal”); Kan. Stat.
    Ann. § 60-1507(f) (one year time limitation for bringing action for post-conviction relief
    can be extended “only to prevent a manifest injustice”). Accordingly, there is “a
    procedural default for purposes of federal habeas regardless of the decision of the last
    state court to which the petitioner actually presented his claims.” Coleman v. Thompson,
    
    501 U.S. 722
    , 735 n.1 (1991).13 We have referred to this as an “anticipatory procedural
    bar.” See Moore v. Schoeman, 
    288 F.3d 1231
    , 1233 n.3 (10th Cir. 2002) (“‘Anticipatory
    procedural bar’ occurs when the federal courts apply procedural bar to an unexhausted
    13
    Mr. Frost does not dispute that Kansas’s procedural rules provide independent
    and adequate state procedural grounds for barring further review in state court of Mr.
    Frost’s unexhausted claims. We therefore do not address that issue. See Thornburg v.
    Mullin, 
    422 F.3d 1113
    , 1141 (10th Cir. 2005) (declining to consider whether state
    procedural bar was “adequate and independent” because habeas petitioner did “not
    challenge independence and adequacy here”).
    - 35 -
    claim that would be procedurally barred under state law if the petitioner returned to state
    court to exhaust it.”); see also Cummings v. Sirmons, 
    506 F.3d 1211
    , 1223 (10th Cir.
    2007).
    b. Exceptions to the anticipatory procedural bar
    There are two circumstances where a federal court may nevertheless consider
    claims subject to an anticipatory procedural bar: (1) if the prisoner has alleged sufficient
    “cause” for failing to raise the claim and resulting “prejudice” or (2) if denying review
    would result in a fundamental miscarriage of justice because the petitioner has made a
    “credible” showing of actual innocence. See 
    Coleman, 501 U.S. at 750
    ; House v. Bell,
    
    547 U.S. 518
    , 537 (2006); McQuiggin v. Perkins, 
    133 S. Ct. 1924
    , 1931-32 (2013).
    Because Mr. Frost only asserts his actual innocence and does not contend he has adequate
    cause for failing to raise these claims in this case, we do not address the first exception.
    “[T]he fundamental miscarriage of justice exception seeks to balance the societal
    interests in finality, comity, and conservation of scarce judicial resources with the
    individual interest in justice that arises in the extraordinary case.” Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    , 324 (1995). To make a credible showing of actual innocence, a “petitioner
    must ‘support his allegations of constitutional error with new reliable evidence—whether
    it be exculpatory scientific evidence, trustworthy eyewitness accounts, or critical physical
    evidence—that was not presented at trial.’” 
    Cummings, 506 F.3d at 1223
    (quoting
    
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 324
    ). This new evidence “must be sufficient to ‘show that it is more
    likely than not that no reasonable juror would have convicted the petitioner in the light of
    - 36 -
    the new evidence.’” 
    Id. (quoting Schlup,
    513 U.S. at 327); accord 
    House, 547 U.S. at 539-40
    (reaffirming the Schlup test after AEDPA). This standard is “demanding and
    permits review only in the extraordinary case.” 
    House, 547 U.S. at 538
    (quotations
    omitted).
    3. Analysis
    We deny COA on all three issues because reasonable jurists would not debate the
    district court’s procedural ruling that (1) Mr. Frost failed to exhaust these claims by not
    including them in his petition for discretionary review by the Kansas Supreme Court; and
    (2) he has therefore procedurally defaulted these claims for purposes of federal habeas
    because the time for petitioning the state court has expired. See 
    O’Sullivan, 526 U.S. at 845
    , 848-49.
    Mr. Frost argues that the district court nonetheless erred in determining that he had
    not satisfied the fundamental miscarriage of justice exception to the anticipatory
    procedural bar. We disagree. Reasonable jurists would not debate the district court’s
    conclusion that Mr. Frost failed to make the “credible showing of actual innocence,” see
    
    Perkins, 133 S. Ct. at 1931
    , required to circumvent the anticipatory procedural bar.
    Although Mr. Frost is correct that the Court’s decisions do not require a “traverse” to
    make this showing, they nevertheless require a petitioner to show that “it is more likely
    than not that no reasonable juror would have found [him] guilty beyond a reasonable
    doubt” in light of the new evidence. 
    House, 547 U.S. at 536-37
    (quoting 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    ) (emphasis added).
    - 37 -
    Mr. Frost’s petition falls short of this demanding standard, which is significantly
    higher than “that needed to establish prejudice” under Strickland. 
    Schlup, 513 U.S. at 327
    . Simply maintaining one’s innocence, or even casting some doubt on witness
    credibility, does not necessarily satisfy this standard. See Stafford v. Saffle, 
    34 F.3d 1557
    ,
    1562 (10th Cir. 1994) (new evidence was “only impeachment evidence, rather than
    evidence of actual innocence” supporting a claim under Herrera v. Collins, 
    506 U.S. 390
    (1993)); cf. Bousley v. United States, 
    523 U.S. 614
    , 623 (1998) (claim of actual innocence
    must be based on new evidence suggesting “factual innocence, not mere legal
    insufficiency”). Mr. Frost’s new evidence regarding the mother’s alleged threats to send
    him back to prison and the victim’s past encopresis does not substantially undermine the
    victim’s testimony of the abuse. Accordingly, we cannot agree with Mr. Frost that, in
    light of this new evidence, it is “more likely than not” that “no reasonable juror” would
    have found him guilty. See 
    House, 547 U.S. at 536-37
    .
    Because reasonable jurists would not debate the district court’s procedural rulings
    on these issues, we deny COA on each of them.14
    14
    Given this conclusion, we decline to address whether reasonable jurists would
    debate whether Mr. Frost’s petition states a “valid claim of the denial of a constitutional
    right,” 
    Slack, 529 U.S. at 484
    , with respect to these claims. Additionally, we need not
    address Mr. Frost’s argument that cumulative error requires reversal because “we
    undertake a cumulative-error analysis only if there are at least two errors.” Lott v.
    Trammel, 
    705 F.3d 1167
    , 1223 (10th Cir. 2013) (quotations omitted).
    - 38 -
    IV.    CONCLUSION
    For the foregoing reasons, we (1) affirm the district court’s denial of habeas relief
    on Mr. Frost’s ineffective assistance claim regarding trial counsel’s failure to investigate
    the child’s medical records; and (2) deny COA on Mr. Frost’s remaining claims.
    - 39 -
    13-3086, Frost v. Pryor
    LUCERO, J., dissenting.
    Although my colleagues in the majority state they would be inclined to grant
    habeas relief had this case come to us on de novo review, they hold that they are
    compelled to affirm under the highly deferential standard of review applicable to 28
    U.S.C. § 2254 claims. (Majority Op. 31-32.) The majority notes that the question of
    whether the KCOA reached an objectively unreasonable decision as to prejudice is a
    close one. (Id. at 27.) I agree the question is close, but conclude upon thorough
    consideration of the record that the KCOA’s treatment of the prejudice issue crossed the
    line from incorrect to unreasonable. Therefore, I must respectfully dissent.
    I agree with my colleagues that the trial attorney’s “failure in this case to obtain
    the child’s medical records plainly fell below an objective standard of reasonableness.”
    (Id. at 21 n.8.) Frost testified that he instructed his attorney to track down records that
    would contradict important testimony from the victim’s mother, and an investigator
    testified that she was able to obtain those records in about an hour. As my colleagues
    note, it has long been clearly established that counsel “has a duty to make reasonable
    investigations or to make a reasonable decision that makes particular investigations
    unnecessary.” Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 691 (1984).
    To prevail on an ineffective assistance claim, however, Frost must also show that
    his attorney’s deficient performance caused prejudice. 
    Id. To do
    so, he must establish “a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different. A reasonable probability is a probability
    sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome.” 
    Id. at 694.
    I recognize, of course,
    the considerable deference due to the decision of the KCOA pursuant to the Antiterrorism
    and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996. See, e.g., Howell v. Trammell, 
    728 F.3d 1202
    ,
    1212-13 (10th Cir. 2013). But “[e]ven in the context of federal habeas, deference does
    not imply abandonment or abdication of judicial review. Deference does not by
    definition preclude relief.” Miller-El v. Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 340 (2003). Given the
    centrality of the issue addressed by the medical records that counsel failed to obtain and
    the potentially devastating effect those records would have had on the prosecution’s case,
    I consider the KCOA’s conclusion that counsel’s failure was non-prejudicial to be
    unreasonable.
    Frost was convicted of aggravated indecent liberties with a child. As the KCOA
    dissent highlighted, “one objective fact seemed to corroborate both the mother’s
    testimony and that of the child: his problem of soiling his pants began only after he had
    moved in with Frost and, thus, presumably in response to Frost’s criminal abuse.” Frost,
    
    2009 WL 2371007
    , at *13 (emphasis added). It is no stretch to characterize the
    correlation of the victim’s encopresis and his contact with Frost as the central theme of
    the trial. The issue was discussed by both the prosecutor and the defense attorney in their
    opening statements. Seven of the nine witnesses who appeared at trial provided
    testimony on the victim’s encopresis, many of them at great length. And both attorneys
    addressed the issue in their closing arguments. The prosecution told the jury that “[y]ou
    -2-
    should find it very, very interesting that the only time that these accidents started
    happening, the only time they happened, was when the defendant had direct contact with
    [the child] and when the defendant reinitiated contact with his mother that [the child] was
    aware of.” As Judge Leben explained in dissent, however, “[t]he medical records would
    have provided objective evidence that the child had had this same problem before any
    acquaintance with Frost.” 
    Id. Moreover, the
    medical records would have provided an extremely valuable avenue
    of impeachment. As the majority acknowledges, the KCOA’s decision completely failed
    to address the impact of the records on the credibility of the child’s mother. (Majority
    Op. 30.) She testified repeatedly and emphatically that the child had not suffered similar
    accidents before the events relevant to the trial:
    Q      Okay. Did [the child] ever start having these accidents before
    you moved in with the defendant?
    A      No.
    Q      Did you – could you recall ever him having any accidents like
    this? For example, after you told him that his biological father and he are
    not going to have any contact did he ever –
    A      No.
    Q      Did he ever start having these accidents any of the other times
    that you have had to uproot your family and move?
    A      No.
    Q      Did he ever have these accidents after your family unit split
    up from six, two adults with four children, to two separate families of one
    adult and two children?
    A      No, he never did.
    The KCOA unreasonably failed to consider the medical records’ effect on the
    credibility of the mother. Combined with the court’s other errors—including those noted
    -3-
    by my colleagues, (id. at 31), the KCOA’s unreasonable analysis resulted in an
    unreasonable conclusion.
    I agree with the majority that the records had less potential to impeach the victim.
    (Id. at 30-31.) However, Frost elicited significant testimony suggesting that a mother
    might put “ideas in [the child’s] head” and that a child’s testimony could be “taint[ed]”
    by hearing his mother’s conversations. A forensic psychiatrist testified that a child “may
    want to please the mother. He may pick up things that the mother is saying and repeat
    those.” Trial evidence suggested that the child had trouble verbalizing details of the
    alleged abuse when his mother was not present. One witness noted that the victim
    “turned and looked at his mother” when asked about the abuse and a therapist stated in
    her report that the child “deferred to his mother for answers regarding abuse.” Thus,
    evidence that the mother had lied on the stand may have reflected on the child’s
    testimony and the prosecution’s entire case.
    I respect my colleagues’ view on this difficult issue; the AEDPA “standard does
    not require all reasonable jurists to agree that the state court was unreasonable.” House v.
    Hatch, 
    527 F.3d 1010
    , 1019 (10th Cir. 2008). However, Frost presents more than simply
    a strong case for retrial with the benefit of the previously undiscovered medical records.
    He has shown that the majority decision of the KCOA was unreasonable. Frost was
    denied protections guaranteed by the Constitution. I would remand to the district court
    with directions to grant the writ.
    -4-