United States v. Starks ( 2022 )


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  •                                                                      FILED
    Appellate Case: 19-3256   Document: 010110690141        United
    Date Filed:  States CourtPage:
    05/27/2022    of Appeals
    1
    Tenth Circuit
    May 27, 2022
    PUBLISH
    Christopher M. Wolpert
    Clerk of Court
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    TENTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    No. 19-3256
    v.
    DEVONTE JEMELL STARKS,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Kansas
    (D.C. No. 5:18-CR-40105-JTM)
    Paige A. Nichols, Assistant Federal Public Defender (Melody Brannon, Federal
    Public Defender, with her on the briefs), Office of the Kansas Federal Public
    Defender, Topeka, Kansas, for Defendant-Appellant.
    James A. Brown, Assistant United States Attorney (Duston J. Slinkard, Acting
    United States Attorney, with him on the brief), Office of the United States
    Attorney, District of Kansas, Topeka, Kansas, for Plaintiff-Appellee.
    Before HOLMES, Circuit Judge, LUCERO, Senior Circuit Judge, and
    PHILLIPS, Circuit Judge.
    HOLMES, Circuit Judge.
    Appellate Case: 19-3256   Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 2
    Devonte Starks appeals from his convictions for possession with intent to
    distribute fentanyl and possession with intent to distribute heroin. The central
    question that we must address is whether Mr. Starks’s conviction can be upheld
    after the government advised the jury in its closing argument that Mr. Starks’s
    right to be presumed innocent no longer existed after the presentation of the trial
    evidence (i.e., the “presumption-of-innocence advisement”). Mr. Starks did not
    object to this presumption-of-innocence advisement. Accordingly, we review his
    appellate challenge under the rigorous plain-error rubric. Under that rubric, we
    conclude—as the government concedes—that the district court committed clear or
    obvious error in allowing this advisement to stand uncorrected before the jury.
    We further believe that this error had some prejudicial effects. Irrespective of
    whether those effects, standing alone, were sufficient to affect Mr. Starks’s
    substantial rights and warrant reversal, we conclude that, when those effects are
    cumulated with the prejudicial effects stemming from two other errors—which the
    government also concedes—Mr. Starks’s convictions cannot stand. Accordingly,
    exercising jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
    , we reverse Mr. Starks’s
    convictions and remand the case to the district court with instructions to vacate
    its judgment and to conduct further proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    2
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    I
    A
    On September 17, 2018, Kansas Highway Patrol Troopers Goheen and
    Birney stopped a Toyota Camry (“Toyota”) and a Chevrolet Impala (“Chevy”)
    that were driving single file across Interstate 70 (“I-70”) in Kansas. The Chevy
    was occupied by two men—Mr. Starks and Kevin Scott—and contained drug
    paraphernalia, but no drugs. The Toyota was occupied by two women—Toya
    Avery and Lamika Watt—and contained two drug-laden suitcases holding two
    kilograms of fentanyl and four kilograms of heroin.
    More specifically, Trooper Goheen initially focused on the cars because the
    Toyota was following the Chevy too closely on the highway. By the time the
    troopers caught up to the vehicles, they had switched positions and the Chevy
    (occupied by Mr. Starks and Mr. Scott) was following the Toyota too closely.
    Trooper Goheen checked the Kansas Turnpike’s computer system—which stores
    photographs that cameras on the turnpike take of vehicular traffic on I-70—and
    noted that, on September 13, 2018 (i.e., four days prior), the same two vehicles
    had passed the Bonner Springs turnpike station, traveling in the same lane, six
    seconds apart. Based on that information, Trooper Goheen inferred that the
    vehicles had been intentionally traveling together.
    Trooper Goheen pulled up next to the Toyota—occupied by Ms. Avery and
    Ms. Watt. And, when he did so, the Chevy pulled in behind his vehicle and began
    3
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    following it too closely. Trooper Goheen radioed Trooper Birney to stop the
    Chevy for a following-too-closely violation, and he did so. Around the same
    time, Trooper Goheen observed that the license-plate bracket of the Toyota
    obscured the state of registration (i.e., Ohio), which is a traffic offense, and he
    accordingly stopped the Toyota.
    Trooper Goheen approached the Toyota on the driver’s side. When Ms.
    Avery, who was driving the Toyota, rolled down her window, Trooper Goheen
    smelled burnt marijuana. He also observed that Ms. Avery’s hands were shaking
    when she produced her license. Both Ms. Avery and Ms. Watt denied traveling
    with the occupants of the Chevy. They stated that they were coming from Utah
    and Colorado and were headed to Kansas City. Ms. Watt said that she was on a
    business trip that involved recruiting people. They provided Trooper Goheen
    with a rental agreement for the Toyota; according to the rental agreement, Ms.
    Watt had rented the vehicle in Ohio five days prior, on the morning of
    September 12, 2018.
    Because of (among other things) the smell of marijuana, Trooper Goheen
    suspected Ms. Avery and Ms. Watt of committing a criminal offense and
    instructed them to get out of the Toyota, so he could search it. During the search,
    Trooper Goheen found fentanyl and heroin in two suitcases in the trunk. Trooper
    Goheen arrested Ms. Avery and Ms. Watt, both of whom denied knowledge of the
    drugs. The packages were not tested for fingerprints or DNA.
    4
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    Meanwhile, Trooper Birney had pulled over the Chevy; Mr. Starks was
    driving and Mr. Scott was the passenger. As with the Toyota, Trooper Birney
    smelled burnt marijuana inside this vehicle. Mr. Starks and Mr. Scott told
    Trooper Birney that they were not traveling with the Toyota and did not know its
    occupants. Mr. Starks explained that he was following the Toyota too closely
    because he had his cruise control set and the Toyota slowed down. The Chevy
    also was a rental vehicle. Trooper Birney obtained the rental agreement; it
    showed that Mr. Scott had rented the vehicle. When Trooper Birney questioned
    the two men about their travel plans, they said that Mr. Scott had picked up Mr.
    Starks in Arizona and they had spent some time in Las Vegas. And, now, they
    were heading to Topeka, Kansas, to see Mr. Starks’s son.
    When Trooper Birney returned to his vehicle to perform a records check of
    Mr. Starks’s license, he learned on the radio from Trooper Goheen that, four days
    prior, the same two vehicles had passed the Bonner Springs turnpike station,
    traveling in the same lane, six seconds apart, and that Trooper Goheen had found
    drugs in the Toyota. Trooper Birney then returned to the Chevy and questioned
    Mr. Starks and Mr. Scott about the marijuana smell; both men denied having or
    smoking marijuana. Under questioning from Trooper Birney, both men also
    denied again knowing the occupants of the Toyota. Trooper Birney searched the
    Chevy but found no controlled substances. He did discover, however, items
    associated with illegal drugs in the Chevy’s trunk—specifically, syringes, a
    5
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    “vacuum sealer or a food saver,” and plastic bags to package items with the
    sealer. R., Vol. III, at 355 (Trial Tr., dated Apr. 2, 2019).
    Ultimately, law enforcement learned that the syringes found in the Chevy
    belonged to Ms. Avery and the sealer and plastic bags belonged to Mr. Scott.
    Furthermore, law enforcement recovered a total of four cell phones from the two
    vehicles—two from the Chevy and two from the Toyota. During the subsequent
    investigation, law enforcement determined that three of the four phones had been
    in contact with each other, and one of the phones had a number that was
    attributable to Mr. Starks.
    B
    Mr. Starks, Mr. Scott, Ms. Avery, and Ms. Watt were all subsequently
    charged in a three-count indictment with conspiring to possess with the intent to
    distribute approximately two kilograms of a mixture or substance containing a
    detectable amount of fentanyl and approximately four kilograms of a mixture or
    substance containing a detectable amount of heroin in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. § 846
     (Count 1); possessing with the intent to distribute approximately two
    kilograms of a mixture or substance containing a detectable amount of fentanyl in
    violation of 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
    (a)(1) and 841(b)(1)(A), as well as 
    18 U.S.C. § 2
    (Count 2); and possessing with the intent to distribute approximately four
    kilograms of a mixture or substance containing a detectable amount of heroin in
    violation of 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
    (a)(1) and 841(b)(1)(A), as well as 
    18 U.S.C. § 2
    6
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    (Count 3). Mr. Scott and Ms. Watt are currently fugitives and were not tried on
    the indictment. 1 Ms. Avery pleaded guilty to the conspiracy offense and testified
    at Mr. Starks’s trial as a government witness.
    1
    Mr. Starks’s trial commenced—as the district court acknowledged—in an
    unconventional manner. As particularly relevant here, apparently without
    consulting counsel, the court adopted what it acknowledged was an unique
    approach in instructing the jury. Rather than comprehensively instructing the jury
    concerning the governing law after the close of the evidence, the court elected to
    give the jury—with only a couple of exceptions that it deemed “better left to the
    end of the case” 2—the full set of instructions regarding the governing law
    immediately before the presentation of the evidence. R., Vol. III, at 272 (Trial
    Tr., dated Apr. 1, 2019). Addressing the jury, the court said:
    Well, folks, usually the instructions are given at the end of the
    case, right before closing arguments. It has always seemed to me
    1
    Mr. Scott was released after he told law enforcement that he would
    become a confidential informant. He never contacted the government after his
    release, and the government has not been able to locate him. Ms. Watt also fled
    after she was released from a detention facility in Russell County, Kansas.
    2
    The two exceptions—that is, the instructions the court did not give at
    that time—related, generally, to the jurors’ responsibility to arrive at a
    “unanimous” verdict, if they could “do so without violating [their] individual
    judgment and [their individual] conscience” and, further, the mechanics of the
    deliberation process, including the “first” requirement to “select a presiding
    juror.” R., Vol. I, at 169–72 (Instrs. 33 and 34).
    7
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    that that got things backwards. It’s like waiting until the end and
    saying, [“]Oh, by the way, these are the things that you should
    have been listening for throughout the trial.[”]
    
    Id. at 244
    . The court allowed each juror to have a written set of the instructions,
    which permitted the jurors (if they wished) to “read along” while the court orally
    gave them the instructions, and to “take notes” on, and “refer” to, their copies of
    the written instructions during the course of the trial. 
    Id.
     And the court also
    informed the jury that the “original copy of the instructions” would “go back to
    the jury room with [them] at the end,” along with “the verdict form.” 
    Id. at 272
    .
    Notably, among the instructions that the court gave at this early stage were
    the instructions directly bearing on the government’s obligation to establish Mr.
    Starks’s guilt “beyond a reasonable doubt” (i.e., Instrs. 5 and 7) and concerning
    the “presumption of innocence” that is constitutionally afforded to Mr. Starks
    (i.e., Instr. 6). 
    Id.
     at 248–50. In particular, in orally presenting Instruction No.
    6—regarding the presumption of innocence—the court informed the jury that the
    presumption of innocence “remains with [Mr. Starks] throughout the trial.” 
    Id. at 249
    .
    After the court finished instructing the jury, the parties presented their
    evidence and closing arguments over the course of approximately two days. We
    turn now to consider the evidence and arguments that the jury heard, insofar as
    they bear on Mr. Starks’s contentions of error.
    8
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    2
    During its case in chief, the government called Troopers Goheen and
    Birney to testify. The troopers communicated to the jury their factual
    observations concerning the traffic stop of Mr. Starks. But Mr. Starks’s counsel
    objected to five of the troopers’ statements that he believed constituted improper
    expert testimony regarding the purported patterns and practices of drug
    traffickers. In particular, Mr. Starks objected that the government had provided
    “no notice of expert testimony,” and that the testimony was subject to “a Daubert
    analysis 3 or [Federal Rule of Evidence] 702 analysis.” R., Vol. III, at 297–98.
    Specifically, Mr. Starks objected to the following five statements:
    1.      Trooper Goheen’s statement that “from our training and
    experience and what we’re seeing out on the road, [I-70 and I-35]
    are . . . the main highways of the United States that these drugs
    are being trafficked . . . on because [they are the] most direct
    route[s].” 
    Id. at 277
    .
    2.     Trooper Goheen’s statement that, based on his training and
    experience, “the guy hauling a hundred pounds of marijuana in
    his trunk is probably not going to come by you at 95 miles an
    hour so, you know, . . . [the] violations that I’m seeing are minor
    . . . . For instance, no turn signals; following too close[ly];
    fail[ing] to maintain a single lane of traffic, those are the types
    of violations that I’m out looking for because . . . the people
    transporting illegal contraband . . . are going to be making the
    minor mistakes.” 
    Id. at 281
    .
    3.    Trooper Goheen’s statement that, based on his training and
    experience, drugs are trafficked across the Mexican border,
    3
    Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 
    509 U.S. 579
     (1993).
    9
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    parceled out in California, and shipped across I-70 in “suicide
    loads” by rental car. 
    Id.
     at 322–26.
    4.     Trooper Goheen’s statement that based on his training and
    experience drug traffickers use “escort vehicles or decoys” to
    divert law enforcement from load vehicles. 
    Id.
     at 357–58.
    5.      Trooper Birney’s statement that, based on his training and
    experience, “just everything [was] adding up” that the two
    vehicles in this case and their occupants were operating together.
    Id. at 411.
    The court overruled Mr. Starks’s objections. As to Trooper Goheen, for
    example, the court stated that it did “not consider what he has talked about in
    terms of his knowledge and experience and conclusions he was drawing as expert
    testimony but just the things that support his reasons for doing the things that he
    did out there.” Id. at 299.
    During its closing argument, the government highlighted this testimony,
    saying:
    Remember the testimony of Trooper Goheen. Trooper Goheen
    told you that based on his training and experience, what you see
    in interdiction is a load car and then an escort car. In this case,
    who’s driving that escort car? The defendant [i.e., Mr. Starks].
    What does the defendant do? The defendant, when he sees the
    trooper pulling up along side, about to pull over the dope car, he
    whips over and tailgates a trooper.
    I challenge any of you to pull over and tailgate a trooper like that
    without knowing exactly what’s going to happen.
    Id. at 630 (Trial Tr., dated Apr. 3, 2019).
    3
    10
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    After Troopers Goheen and Birney testified, the government called Special
    Agent Heizer from the Department of Homeland Security. Agent Heizer testified
    to the authenticity of a government record, Exhibit 11. Exhibit 11 showed that
    two men, possessing names and birthdays identical to those of Mr. Scott and Mr.
    Starks, crossed the U.S.-Mexico border on foot at 9:00 p.m. EST on September 7,
    2018—which was five days before Mr. Scott and Ms. Watt rented the cars that
    Troopers Goheen and Birney later stopped on September 17. Eighteen minutes
    later, they returned to the United States on foot via that same entry-exit point,
    within one minute of each other.
    Mr. Starks’s counsel objected to the introduction of Exhibit 11 on hearsay
    grounds. Specifically, Mr. Starks’s counsel maintained that Agent Heizer had no
    personal knowledge concerning the creation of Exhibit 11 nor regarding the
    section of the border where that record was generated. His objection was
    overruled without comment.
    4
    Following Agent Heizer’s testimony, the government called Drug
    Enforcement Administration (“DEA”) Task Force Officer Proffitt (“TFO
    Proffitt”) to testify concerning the post-arrest search of the phones found in the
    Chevy and Toyota, as well as Mr. Starks’s prior criminal history. In addition to
    testifying that three of the four phones had been in contact with each other, and
    11
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    that one of the phones had a number that was attributable to Mr. Starks, 4 TFO
    Proffitt noted that all of the phones had been activated on September 11,
    2018—six days before the traffic stop. Through TFO Proffitt, the government
    also presented evidence that in 2015 Mr. Starks was convicted in state court for
    attempted possession of heroin for sale, for which he served prison time.
    Notably, during his cross-examination of TFO Proffitt, Mr. Starks’s counsel
    asked TFO Proffitt about a search warrant he had obtained for Mr. Starks’s
    residence after Mr. Starks’s arrest on September 17, 2018, and prior to trial.
    Specifically, Mr. Starks’s counsel asked TFO Proffitt what he found as a result of
    that warrant, and if he had hoped to use that warrant to find additional evidence
    of drug trafficking. TFO Proffitt stated that he obtained and executed the warrant
    hoping to find additional drug-trafficking evidence, but his search of Mr. Starks’s
    residence yielded no such evidence.
    On redirect, the government asked TFO Proffitt how he obtained probable
    cause for the warrant. TFO Proffitt stated that two non-testifying, local police
    officers who had responded to a domestic-dispute call at Mr. Starks’s residence
    had informed him that they observed a gallon-sized Ziploc bag of cash at the
    4
    Tracking in part the testimony of Ms. Avery, discussed infra, TFO
    Proffitt testified that contact information had been saved on the four phones under
    various names: “three had a [contact saved as], T-A, and the fourth had other
    versions, it had a Vonte, a Vonte KC, and . . . a Bro Tae,” and the stored data
    from the phones also referenced “Bro Tay” and “Ta.” R., Vol. III, at 440–41.
    12
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    home and smelled marijuana coming from Mr. Starks’s person, the residence, and
    a car on the property.
    5
    The government concluded its presentation of evidence with testimony
    from Ms. Avery. Following her arrest, as previously noted, Ms. Avery pleaded
    guilty to the conspiracy charge, and she agreed to testify as a government witness
    under a plea agreement—with the acknowledged hope of receiving a more lenient
    sentence. During her testimony, Ms. Avery stated that Mr. Scott regularly sold
    heroin and fentanyl and used her as a drug tester. In that regard, Ms. Avery
    testified that she was “addicted to heroin and fentanyl” and had “a very, very high
    tolerance” for the drugs; thus, she was “beneficial to someone who sells drugs on
    [a] large scale,” like Mr. Scott, as a tester of the quality of the drugs. R., Vol. III,
    at 519–20. They both worked the narcotics trade in Akron, Ohio.
    Ms. Avery stated that she first met Mr. Starks in Arizona after Mr. Scott
    asked her to accompany him to meet a new potential supplier of heroin. In
    Arizona, Mr. Starks, Ms. Avery, and Mr. Scott went to a house in a gated
    community, where Ms. Avery tested tar heroin in the presence of Mr. Scott and
    Mr. Starks. When Ms. Avery proclaimed that the heroin was “junk,” Mr. Starks
    reportedly indicated that he would “talk to [his sources] and figure out what can
    be done about this.” Id. at 526–27. Mr. Scott and Ms. Avery then transported
    some heroin back to Ohio. The two typically traveled in rental cars that Mr. Scott
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    would rent and pay for. Ms. Avery testified that it was her understanding that Mr.
    Starks “was going to get paid every time” they did a drug deal with his suppliers.
    Id. at 540.
    Ms. Avery testified that she met Mr. Starks at the same house in Arizona on
    two subsequent trips with Mr. Scott. According to Ms. Avery, on the first of
    these trips—which occurred around two months after the initial one—their group
    was joined by “two Mexicans” who were narcotics suppliers of Mr. Starks. Id. at
    533. The Mexican suppliers had brought with them “a kilo of heroin,” Ms. Avery
    testified, but this was not satisfactory to her and Mr. Scott because Ms. Avery
    said that she and Mr. Scott also wanted fentanyl; they “needed both” heroin and
    fentanyl. Id. at 534. Mr. Scott expressed this need for both drugs to Mr. Starks
    and his “Mexican” suppliers, but he purchased the heroin. Id. Mr. Scott and Ms.
    Avery “broke it down, repackaged it and taped it to [her] body,” and then
    transported the heroin back to Ohio. Id. at 535. On the final Arizona trip, Ms.
    Avery testified that one of Mr. Starks’s suppliers did bring both—more than a
    kilo of heroin and fentanyl. Mr. Scott purchased the narcotics, and, as before, he
    and Ms. Avery repackaged the drugs and traveled back to Ohio.
    Notably, Ms. Avery further testified that on September 12, 2018, she met
    Mr. Scott, Ms. Watt, and Mr. Starks in Akron, where there were two rental
    vehicles present—a Toyota and a Chevy. Mr. Scott gave everyone a phone with
    pre-programmed contact information under different names: Mr. Scott’s name was
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    “Bro,” Ms. Avery’s name was “Sis,” and Mr. Starks’s name was “Ta.” Id. at 558.
    The four traveled to Anaheim, California. On the way there, before entering
    California, Ms. Avery stated that Mr. Starks spoke with someone on a speaker-
    phone about getting drugs out of California, but the person advised that there was
    no safe way to do so. Once they arrived in California, they stayed for a few days;
    Ms. Avery was not sure why and did not ask. On the group’s return, Ms. Avery
    started off riding in the car with Mr. Starks and Mr. Scott, but later joined Ms.
    Watt in her vehicle. Ms. Avery did a small portion of the driving and had “been
    driving about five or ten minutes” when the Kansas trooper (i.e., Trooper Goheen)
    pulled her over. Id. at 563.
    Ms. Avery stated that, even though Mr. Scott had recruited her for the
    Anaheim trip and she believed that she would be testing drugs, she had not heard
    about any drug transaction or tested any drugs during the trip. Significantly, Ms.
    Avery testified that she did not know that drugs were in her vehicle on
    September 17, 2018—the day she was pulled over and arrested. She further
    testified that she did not talk directly to Mr. Starks about drug transactions. Ms.
    Avery said she and Mr. Starks did not “have an understanding about drugs. He’s
    not paying for them and I’m not, either, so we don’t need to be talking about how
    much of anything is going to be, you know, bought because we’re not buying it.”
    Id. at 561.
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    6
    Significantly, at the conclusion of the evidence—two days after the trial
    began—the district court elected not to comprehensively instruct the jury again.
    Specifically, in response to the government’s inquiry as to whether it would do
    so, the court responded that it was “not going to go through the instructions
    again,” but it would “read those final two instructions” that it initially had
    reserved for the end of the evidence, and then counsel could present their closing
    arguments. Id. at 485. Those two instructions concerned, generally, the jurors’
    responsibility to arrive at a “unanimous” verdict, if they could “do so without
    violating [their] individual judgment and [their individual] conscience,” and,
    further, the mechanics of the deliberation process. R., Vol. I, at 169–72 (Instrs.
    33 and 34); accord id., Vol. III, at 620–22. As the court described them, those
    mechanics included the “first” requirement of the jury to “select a presiding
    juror” and “[t]he second thing [the jury] should do,” that is, “review the
    instructions.” Id., Vol. I, at 171 (Instr. 34); accord id., Vol. III, at 621. As to the
    “second thing,” the court advised the jury that their work as jurors would be
    “more productive” if they were familiar with “the legal principles upon which
    [their] verdict must be based.” Id., Vol. I, at 171 (Instr. 34); accord id., Vol. III,
    at 621.
    Notably, however, as a consequence of the court’s unconventional approach
    regarding the timing of the delivery of its oral instructions, the jury heard the
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    court’s oral instructions concerning most of the governing law only once, and
    approximately two days before they began deliberations. In particular, the jury
    did not hear again—at the close of the evidence—the court’s oral instructions
    regarding the government’s beyond-a-reasonable-doubt burden of proof (i.e.,
    Instrs. 5 and 7) nor the court’s instruction concerning the presumption of
    innocence that the Constitution afforded Mr. Starks (i.e., Instr. 6).
    7
    After the jury heard the court’s two remaining instructions, the parties’
    counsel gave their closing arguments. Importantly, in its closing, the government
    told the jury:
    Now, on Monday, if you’ll recall, you were instructed that this
    defendant was presumed innocent. That he was clothed in the
    presumption of innocence. And that was absolutely true
    Monday. But here we are[, on] Wednesday. Ladies and
    gentlemen, I submit to you that based upon the evidence and
    based upon your common sense, that that is no longer true. That
    as the defendant sits before you today, that that presumption has
    been changed based upon [the] substantial weight of credible
    evidence. And as you see him, the naked truth about him, this
    man, based on this evidence, is a drug dealer.
    Id., Vol. III, at 627 (emphases added). Mr. Starks’s counsel did not
    contemporaneously object, and the court did not admonish the government or
    otherwise comment on the propriety of its argument.
    The government then proceeded to make statements regarding its witnesses’
    truthfulness. Specifically, the government stated that Ms. Avery was bound to a
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    plea agreement requiring her “only to do one thing: [t]ell the truth.” Id. at 631.
    The government added, “[n]obody has ever told her to do anything other than tell
    the truth. And she sat there and she told you the absolute truth . . . .” Id. Mr.
    Starks’s counsel objected to this statement as improper vouching. The district
    court sustained the objection, and it also instructed the jury to disregard the
    statement: i.e., “Jury will ignore what the prosecutor says in terms of truthfulness.
    That’s your determination to make, not counsel’s.” Id.
    8
    During his subsequent closing argument, Mr. Starks’s counsel did express
    his disagreement with the prosecutor’s presumption-of-innocence advisement:
    “[The] Prosecutor said when he stood up that . . . [Mr.] Starks had the
    presumption of innocence but he doesn’t now. I would disagree with that as a
    point of law. Until you decide otherwise, you, the jury, . . . Mr. Starks is
    presumed innocent. And he is innocent.” Id. at 657. But the court itself did not
    instruct the jury regarding this matter or otherwise take remedial action.
    When Mr. Starks’s counsel concluded, the government began its rebuttal
    closing argument with forceful statements that appeared to be aimed at bolstering
    the credibility of Ms. Avery, the only government witness who testified about the
    alleged narcotics conspiracy and Mr. Starks’s supposed involvement in it.
    Specifically, the government’s counsel said:
    Ladies and gentlemen, from the defendant’s [i.e., Mr. Starks’s]
    18
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    point of view, as you just heard, you should believe everything
    about everyone else in this conspiracy except the defendant.
    That’s not the law. It would defy human nature and common
    sense.
    They attack Ms. Avery. Well, conspiracies are characterized by
    their secrecy and their criminal nature and people involved.
    Hatching plots in hell doesn’t involve angels.
    Id. at 658. Further, the government sought to lend additional credibility to the
    predicate for Agent Proffitt’s search of Mr. Starks’s residence. In particular, the
    government stated “based upon the observations of the officers[,] . . . a search
    warrant was acquired. [A j]udge look[ed] at the evidence and [concluded there
    was] probable cause to search . . . .” Id. at 660. Mr. Starks’s counsel objected to
    this as improper vouching. The court sustained the objection, but did not provide
    a curative instruction.
    The government also made statements commenting on Trooper Birney’s and
    Trooper Goheen’s testimony. Specifically, the government stated to the jury:
    “You saw Trooper Birney. You saw Trooper Goheen. You know their demeanor.
    You know how they do their jobs and how they’ve done it for years. They have
    no axe to grind and no reason to make things up and they don’t take shortcuts.”
    Id. at 661. Mr. Starks’s attorney did not object to this statement.
    9
    After hearing closing arguments, a little after 12:00 pm—approximately
    two days after orally receiving most of their instructions from the court—the jury
    19
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    retired to deliberate, with a written set of the “original” instructions and the
    verdict form. Id. at 664. After being dismissed at the end of the business day, it
    returned to court the next day and reached a verdict in the early afternoon. The
    jury convicted Mr. Starks of the two counts charging him with possessing with the
    intent to distribute narcotics—specifically, fentanyl (Count 2) and heroin (Count
    3). However, the jury could not reach a verdict regarding the conspiracy charge
    (Count 1), and the court subsequently dismissed that charge on the government’s
    motion. The district court sentenced Mr. Starks to a total term of 180 months’
    imprisonment followed by 5 years’ supervised release. Mr. Starks timely
    appealed.
    II
    Mr. Starks presents five arguments that he believes warrant reversal:
    (1)    the district court abused its discretion when it admitted
    expert testimony by Troopers Goheen and Birney regarding
    typical patterns and practices of drug traffickers, where the
    government failed to provide the requisite disclosures under
    Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 16 and the court failed to
    make the necessary expert witness determinations under Federal
    Rule of Evidence 702;
    (2)   the district court abused its discretion by admitting hearsay
    evidence that Mr. Starks and Mr. Scott crossed the U.S.-Mexico
    border together;
    (3)    the district court plainly erred, in violation of Mr. Starks’s
    Sixth Amendment rights, by allowing the jury to hear the out-of-
    court statements of non-testifying local law enforcement officers
    through the testimony of Agent Proffitt;
    20
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    (4)    the district court plainly erred in allowing the government
    to engage in prosecutorial misconduct in closing argument, which
    deprived Mr. Starks of a fair trial, by (a) telling the jury that Mr.
    Starks’s presumption of innocence had been abrogated before
    jury deliberations, (b) improperly vouching for Ms. Avery,
    Troopers Goheen and Birney, and the non-testifying local
    officers regarding whom Agent Proffitt testified, and (c) in its
    rebuttal argument, telling “jurors that the law prohibited them
    from concluding that [Ms.] Avery was telling the truth about her
    own and Mr. Scott’s drug dealing, but lying about Mr. Starks”;
    and
    (5)    the cumulative effect of two or more of the foregoing
    errors deprived Mr. Starks of a fair trial.
    See Aplt.’s Opening Br. at i–ii, 2.
    However, in order to conclude that Mr. Starks’s convictions cannot stand,
    we need not—and therefore do not—reach most of these arguments. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Chavez, 
    976 F.3d 1178
    , 1213 n.20 (10th Cir. 2020). That is
    because we determine that the cumulative effects of three errors that Mr. Starks
    alleges are enough to warrant reversal of his convictions: specifically, (1) the
    unpreserved error arising from the government’s presumption-of-innocence
    advisement, (2) the preserved error concerning the court’s admission of the expert
    testimony of Troopers Goheen and Birney regarding typical patterns and practices
    of drug traffickers, and (3) the unpreserved error relating to the prosecution’s
    vouching for Ms. Avery’s credibility.
    More specifically, we begin our analysis with arguably the most
    problematic of the errors: that is, the one pertaining to the government’s
    21
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    presumption-of-innocence advisement. As noted, Mr. Starks did not preserve his
    challenge to this error in the district court (i.e., he failed to object to it). Thus,
    our review is only for plain error. See, e.g., United States v. Anaya, 
    727 F.3d 1043
    , 1053 (10th Cir. 2013). The government does not dispute that, under the
    second prong of the plain-error test, this error was clear or obvious. Moreover, in
    our view, this error had some prejudicial effects. Regardless of whether those
    effects, standing alone, were sufficient to affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights
    and warrant reversal, we conclude that, when those effects are cumulated with the
    prejudicial effects of the errors relating to the court’s admission of the expert
    testimony of Troopers Goheen and Birney and the prosecution’s vouching for Ms.
    Avery’s credibility, we cannot uphold Mr. Starks’s convictions.
    A
    1
    Under the plain-error rubric, reversal is only warranted where there is
    “(1) error, (2) that is plain, which (3) affects substantial rights, and which
    (4) seriously affects the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial
    proceedings.” United States v. Portillo-Vega, 
    478 F.3d 1194
    , 1202 (10th Cir.
    2007) (quoting United States v. Gonzalez-Huerta, 
    403 F.3d 727
    , 732 (10th Cir.
    2005) (en banc)). “We ‘apply the plain error rule less rigidly when reviewing a
    potential constitutional error.’” United States v. Dalton, 
    918 F.3d 1117
    , 1130
    (10th Cir. 2019) (quoting United States v. Weeks, 
    653 F.3d 1188
    , 1198 (10th Cir.
    22
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022      Page: 23
    2011)).
    An error is “plain” if it is “so clear or obvious that it could not be subject
    to any reasonable dispute.” United States v. Courtney, 
    816 F.3d 681
    , 684 (10th
    Cir. 2016). “In turn, to be clear or obvious, the error must be contrary to
    well-settled law.” United States v. Taylor, 
    514 F.3d 1092
    , 1100 (10th Cir. 2008).
    “In general, for an error to be contrary to well-settled law, either the Supreme
    Court or this court must have addressed the issue.” United States v. Ruiz-Gea,
    
    340 F.3d 1181
    , 1187 (10th Cir. 2003). To demonstrate under the third prong of
    the plain-error test that an error affected a defendant’s substantial rights, “a
    defendant generally must demonstrate that an error was ‘prejudicial, meaning that
    there is a reasonable probability that, but for the error claimed, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.’” United States v. Bustamante-Conchas,
    
    850 F.3d 1130
    , 1138 (10th Cir. 2017) (en banc) (quoting United States v.
    Algarate-Valencia, 
    550 F.3d 1238
    , 1242 (10th Cir. 2008)).
    “The reasonable-probability standard is not the same as, and should not be
    confused with, a requirement that a defendant prove by a preponderance of the
    evidence that but for error things would have been different.” 
    Id.
     (quoting United
    States v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 83 n.9 (2004)). Instead, “[a]
    reasonable probability is a probability sufficient to undermine confidence in the
    outcome.” United States v. Hasan, 
    526 F.3d 653
    , 665 (10th Cir. 2008) (quoting
    Sallahdin v. Gibson, 
    275 F.3d 1211
    , 1235 (10th Cir. 2002)). It is the defendant’s
    23
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022      Page: 24
    burden to make this showing, even in a case of alleged constitutional error.
    Gonzalez-Huerta, 
    403 F.3d at 733
    .
    As to plain error’s fourth requirement, a party that fails to raise an
    argument in the district court must show that allowing a non-constitutional error
    to stand would be “particularly egregious” and would constitute a “miscarriage of
    justice.” United States v. Gilkey, 
    118 F.3d 702
    , 704 (10th Cir. 1997) (quoting
    United States v. Ivy, 
    83 F.3d 1266
    , 1295 (10th Cir. 1996)). However, “[i]n the
    context of an alleged constitutional error, the relaxed standard means we do not
    require the exceptional showing required to remand a case of non-constitutional
    error.” United States v. Dazey, 
    403 F.3d 1147
    , 1178 (10th Cir. 2005).
    Nevertheless, the burden remains with the defendant to show “that an exercise of
    our discretion is appropriate.” 
    Id.
     The test is applied on “a case-specific and
    fact-intensive basis.” Bustamante-Conchas, 850 F.3d at 1141 (quoting Puckett v.
    United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 142 (2009)).
    2
    Prosecutorial misconduct can cause constitutional error in two ways: first,
    it can prejudice a specific constitutional right amounting to a denial of the right;
    and second, “absent infringement of a specific constitutional right, a prosecutor’s
    misconduct may in some instances render a . . . trial ‘so fundamentally unfair as
    to deny [a defendant] due process.’” Underwood v. Royal, 
    894 F.3d 1154
    , 1167
    (10th Cir. 2018) (quoting Littlejohn v. Trammell, 
    704 F.3d 817
    , 837 (10th Cir.
    24
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 25
    2013)), cert. denied, Underwood v. Carpenter, --- U.S. ----, 
    139 S. Ct. 1342
    (2019).
    “When evaluating allegedly inappropriate remarks of counsel for plain
    error, we must view the remarks in the context of the entire trial.” United States
    v. Vann, 
    776 F.3d 746
    , 760 (10th Cir. 2015) (quoting United States v. Lopez-
    Medina, 
    596 F.3d 716
    , 738 (10th Cir. 2010)). The relevant context includes “the
    curative acts of the district court, the extent of the misconduct, and the role of the
    misconduct within the case.” United States v. Christy, 
    916 F.3d 814
    , 826 (10th
    Cir. 2019) (quoting United States v. Gabaldon, 
    91 F.3d 91
    , 94 (10th Cir. 1996)).
    The Supreme Court in United States v. Young observed that “[t]he line separating
    acceptable from improper advocacy is not easily drawn.” 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 7 (1985).
    In Christy, we noted that one type of argument that clearly crosses the line into
    improper advocacy involves “misstating the law.” 916 F.3d at 825 (citing United
    States v. Currie, 
    911 F.3d 1047
    , 1057 (10th Cir. 2018)).
    B
    Arguably, Mr. Starks’s most compelling claim of error arises from the
    government’s erroneous presumption-of-innocence advisement during its closing
    argument:
    Now, on Monday, if you’ll recall, you were instructed that this
    defendant was presumed innocent. That he was clothed in the
    presumption of innocence. And that was absolutely true
    Monday. But here we are[, on] Wednesday. Ladies and
    gentlemen, I submit to you that based upon the evidence and
    25
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 26
    based upon your common sense, that that is no longer true. That
    as the defendant sits before you today, that that presumption has
    been changed based upon [the] substantial weight of credible
    evidence. And as you see him, the naked truth about him, this
    man, based on this evidence, is a drug dealer.
    R., Vol. III, at 627 (emphases added).
    We have held that the “‘constitutionally rooted presumption of innocence’
    [is] one of those basic rights whose violation may provide a ground for vacation
    of a state conviction independent of the more general due process concerns
    underlying fundamental fairness analysis.” Mahorney v. Wallman, 
    917 F.2d 469
    ,
    472 (10th Cir. 1990) (per curiam) (quoting Brinlee v. Crisp, 
    608 F.2d 839
    , 854
    (10th Cir. 1979)). Specifically, “[t]he presumption of innocence, although not
    articulated in the Constitution, is a basic component of a fair trial under our
    system of criminal justice.” Estelle v. Williams, 
    425 U.S. 501
    , 503 (1976); see
    Cool v. United States, 
    409 U.S. 100
    , 104 (1972) (per curiam) (discussing the
    “constitutionally rooted presumption of innocence”). The presumption serves as a
    reminder to the jury that the prosecution has the burden of proving every element
    of the offense beyond a reasonable doubt, and is thus a bedrock of our criminal
    justice system. See Delo v. Lashley, 
    507 U.S. 272
    , 278 (1993) (per curiam). Yet
    the government here advised the jury in its closing argument that, after the
    presentation of the evidence, Mr. Starks was “no longer” “clothed in the
    presumption of innocence.” R., Vol. III, at 627.
    On appeal, the government wisely concedes that the district court clearly or
    26
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022       Page: 27
    obviously erred in letting this presumption-of-innocence advisement stand
    uncorrected before the jury. See Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 44. However, the
    government contends that this error did not affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights
    and, thus, he cannot demonstrate that the third prong of the plain-error test is
    satisfied. Yet, in our view—irrespective of whether this is true—it is not
    determinative here. We conclude that, under the circumstances of this case, this
    clear or obvious error had some prejudicial effects. And, as noted, Mr. Starks’s
    convictions cannot stand when these prejudicial effects are combined with the
    prejudicial effects of two other errors. We discuss the case-specific
    circumstances upon which we base this reasoning below. We begin, however,
    with an overview of our on-point decision in Mahorney—a decision that informs
    our subsequent analysis.
    1
    In Mahorney, we granted habeas relief on the ground that the prosecution’s
    statements in closing argument impermissibly undermined the petitioner’s
    presumption of innocence. See 
    917 F.2d at 474
    . Those statements are remarkably
    similar to those at issue here. Specifically, the prosecution said:
    I submit to you, under the law and the evidence, that we are in a
    little different position today than we were in when we first
    started this trial and it was your duty at that time, under the law
    of this land, as you were being selected as jurors, to actively in
    your minds presume that man over there not to be guilty of the
    offense of rape in the first degree, but, you know, things have
    changed since that time. I submit to you at this time, under the
    27
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    law and under the evidence, that that presumption has been
    removed, that that presumption no longer exists, that that
    presumption has been removed by evidence and he is standing
    before you now guilty.
    
    Id. at 471
     (emphases added). As in this case, the prosecution did not even attempt
    on appeal to defend the propriety of these statements. See 
    id.
     Nevertheless, we
    specifically noted that they were “impermissible because they undermined two
    fundamental aspects of the presumption of innocence, namely that the
    presumption (1) remains with the accused throughout every stage of the trial,
    including, most importantly, the jury’s deliberations, and (2) is extinguished only
    upon the jury’s determination that guilt has been established beyond a reasonable
    doubt.” 
    Id.
     at 471 n.2.
    In particular, we noted in Mahorney that “the essence of the error in the
    prosecution’s comments here was that they conveyed to the jury the idea that the
    presumption had been eliminated from the case prior to deliberations.” 
    Id. at 473
    .
    We rejected the suggestion that a generalized fundamental fairness inquiry was
    the proper framework for determining whether the prosecution’s comments
    effected a constitutional violation. 
    Id.
     at 472–73. That framework was applicable
    in circumstances where the court failed “to give a specific charge on the
    presumption of innocence.” 
    Id. at 472
    . Such a failure “‘does not in and of itself
    violate the Constitution’ in the absence of a finding that such failure, when
    considered with all other circumstances, rendered the trial fundamentally unfair.”
    28
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    Id. at 472
     (quoting Kentucky v. Whorton, 
    441 U.S. 786
    , 789 (1979)). Rejecting
    this approach, and with the prosecution’s comments in mind, we stated that “[a]
    misstatement of law that affirmatively negates a constitutional right or principle is
    often, in our view, a more serious infringement than the mere omission of a
    requested instruction.” Id. at 473.
    We recognized, however, that it was not enough that the prosecution’s
    comments violated the petitioner’s constitutional rights; they had to substantially
    prejudice him. And, considering “the pertinent surrounding circumstances at
    trial,” we concluded that they did “show substantial prejudice.” Id. Among the
    factors that the court concluded supported its prejudice determination was the fact
    that the court’s “overall charge on the presumption of innocence and burden of
    proof was not sufficiently specific to preserve that presumption in light of the
    prosecutor’s specific statement that it had been extinguished from the case.” Id.
    at 473–74. Notably, we reached this conclusion even though “[t]he jury
    instructions were read to the jury [by the court] before closing arguments were
    made.” Id. at 474 n.5.
    “Moreover, the trial court did not thereafter attempt to cure or minimize the
    problem [caused by the prosecutor’s presumption-of-innocence advisement]
    through admonishment or special instruction of the jury.” Id. at 473.
    Furthermore, “the character and condition of the evidence” supported our
    determination of substantial prejudice. Id. at 474. Specifically, the outcome of
    29
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    the case turned on the credibility of testimonial evidence, which neither “was
    conclusively confirmed [n]or disproportionately discredited by extrinsic
    evidence.” Id. Thus, considering the particular circumstances of the
    case—including this state of the evidence, “the aggravated effect of the
    prosecution’s misconduct . . . and the fact that this misconduct went directly to a
    fundamental precept guiding the factfinder’s evaluation of guilt or
    innocence”—we concluded that we could not “say that the constitutional infirmity
    in petitioner’s criminal trial was harmless.” Id.
    2
    Akin to Mahorney, we conclude that, under the particular circumstances of
    this case, the government’s presumption-of-innocence advisement—at the very
    least—had some prejudicial effects on the trial, irrespective of whether those
    effects were sufficient to affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights, within the
    meaning of the plain-error test’s third prong. This is so because in this case
    (1) the substance of the court’s generalized instructions was not helpful in
    mitigating the strong potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial
    effects—caused by the prosecution’s presumption-of-innocence advisement;
    (2) the unconventional timing of the court’s delivery of its oral instructions may
    have undermined the capacity of the instructions to be a positive instrument for
    mitigating any prejudice from the advisement; and (3) contrary to the
    government’s contentions, its proof of Mr. Starks’s guilt—being essentially
    30
    Appellate Case: 19-3256     Document: 010110690141         Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 31
    circumstantial and dependent on the testimony of an admitted drug addict and
    alleged coconspirator with a plea deal—was not “overwhelming.” Cf. Aplee.’s
    Resp. Br. at 21. We address each of these factors in turn.
    a
    In Mahorney, we bolstered our conclusion that the prosecution’s
    presumption-of-innocence advisement, like the one here, caused the petitioner
    substantial prejudice by reasoning that “the trial court’s overall charge on the
    presumption of innocence and burden of proof was not sufficiently specific to
    preserve that presumption in light of the prosecutor’s specific statement that it
    had been extinguished from the case.” 
    917 F.2d at
    473–74. This reasoning also
    seems cogent here, where the district court offered only generalized instructions
    regarding the government’s proof-beyond-a-reasonable doubt burden and the
    defendant’s presumption of innocence. See R., Vol. I, at 54 (Instr. 5); id. at 135
    (Instr. 6); id. at 136 (Instr. 7); see also id., Vol. III, at 248–50 (Instrs. 5, 6, and
    7).
    Moreover, as in Mahorney, after the prosecution made its impermissible
    statements concerning the presumption of innocence, “the trial court did not
    thereafter attempt to cure or minimize the problem through admonishment or
    special instruction of the jury,” 
    917 F.2d at
    473—even though, as the government
    here concedes, the error was clear or obvious and thus an error that the court
    should have addressed sua sponte. This silence in the court’s instructions
    31
    Appellate Case: 19-3256   Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 32
    possibly could have left the jury with the impression that the court condoned the
    prosecution’s impermissible statements. See Currie, 911 F.3d at 1056 (“A court’s
    refusal to correct a prosecutor’s misstatement of law may affect the prejudicial
    effect of the comment.”); cf. United States v. Slatten, 
    395 F. Supp. 3d 45
    , 103
    (D.D.C. 2019) (“Because this Court quickly, forcefully, and repeatedly corrected
    the prosecutor’s erroneous insinuation that the presumption of innocence no
    longer applied, [the defendant] wasn’t prejudiced.”); cf. also Taylor, 
    514 F.3d at
    1100–01 (concluding district court’s instruction immediately after improper
    comment cured prejudicial effect). 5
    Therefore, the substance of the district court’s generalized instructions here
    5
    In his closing argument, defense counsel attempted to address the
    prosecution’s erroneous presumption-of-innocence advisement. He said:
    [The] Prosecutor said when he stood up that on Monday [Mr.]
    Starks had the presumption of innocence but he doesn’t now. I
    would disagree with that as a point of law. Until you decide
    otherwise, you, the jury, we, the people, Mr. Starks is presumed
    innocent. And he is innocent.
    R., Vol. III, at 657. However, by its own terms, this comment of Mr. Starks’s
    counsel expressed nothing more than a mere disagreement with the prosecution
    regarding the law. And the instructions made clear that the jury was obliged to
    look to the court for guidance regarding the governing law. See id. at 245 (“You
    must not substitute or follow your own notion or opinion as to what the law is or
    ought to be. It is your duty to apply the law as I explain it to you, regardless of
    the consequences.”); accord id., Vol. I, at 128. Accordingly, though well-
    intentioned, counsel’s response to the prosecution’s erroneous presumption-of-
    innocence advisement had little force to diminish the strong potential for
    prejudice—and actual prejudicial effects—stemming from the advisement and
    certainly could not make up for the court’s failure to correct the advisement.
    32
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022       Page: 33
    was unhelpful in mitigating the strong potential for prejudice—and actual
    prejudicial effects—caused by the prosecution’s presumption-of-innocence
    advisement. To be sure, the court’s presumption-of-innocence instruction stated
    that the presumption “remains with [the defendant] throughout the trial.” R., Vol.
    III, at 249 (emphasis added); accord id., Vol. I, at 135. However, nothing in the
    jury instructions defined what procedural events constituted the “trial.” As a
    result, a reasonable juror could have erroneously concluded—in a manner
    consistent with the government’s flawed presumption-of-innocence
    advisement—that the “trial” ended with the close of evidence. Cf. Mahorney, 
    917 F.2d at
    471 n.2 (“[T]he presumption of innocence . . . remains with the accused
    throughout every stage of the trial, including, most importantly, the jury’s
    deliberations, and . . . is extinguished only upon the jury’s determination that
    guilt has been established beyond a reasonable doubt.”).
    Further, the government reminds us that the court—in addition to
    instructing the jury regarding the government’s beyond-a-reasonable-doubt
    burden and the presumption of innocence—also instructed the jury that
    “[s]tatements, arguments, and remarks of counsel are not evidence in the case,”
    and that the jury was admonished to “consider only the evidence in the case.” R.,
    Vol. I, at 167 (Instr. 32). And the government points to the unremarkable
    proposition that “the jury is presumed to have followed” its instructions. Aplee.’s
    33
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    Resp. Br. at 45; see also Weeks v. Angelone, 
    528 U.S. 225
    , 234 (2000) (“A jury is
    presumed to follow its instructions.”); Bland v. Sirmons, 
    459 F.3d 999
    , 1015 (10th
    Cir. 2006) (noting that “[t]he jury is presumed to follow its instructions, even
    when there has been misleading argument” (citation omitted)).
    The government’s line of argument is of course intended to suggest that
    Mr. Starks was not prejudiced by the prosecutor’s impermissible presumption-of-
    innocence advisement because the jury—by dutifully following its
    instructions—would have ignored the advisement. However, the presumption that
    the jury follows its instructions in the face of a prosecutor’s impermissible
    arguments is just that—a presumption.
    More to the point, in the context of a prosecution argument remarkably
    similar to the one here, we emphasized that “[a] misstatement of law that
    affirmatively negates a constitutional right or principle” frequently results in a
    “serious infringement” of a defendant’s constitutional rights. Mahorney, 
    917 F.2d at 473
     (emphasis added). And, as Mr. Starks aptly notes, “that instruction
    [providing that counsel’s statements or arguments are not evidence, which the
    government relies on here] says nothing about counsel’s statements about the law.
    The prosecutor’s improper statement about the presumption of innocence stood
    uncorrected by any instruction.” 6 Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 13. Accordingly, guided in
    6
    It is true that the court’s generalized instructions told the jury that it
    (continued...)
    34
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    substantial part by Mahorney’s reasoning and outcome, we are inclined to
    conclude that the district court’s generalized admonishments to the jury about the
    non-evidentiary quality of counsel’s arguments would have had little effect in
    dissipating the strong potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial
    effects—stemming from the prosecution’s presumption-of-innocence advisement.
    In sum, the substance of the district court’s generalized instructions was unhelpful
    in mitigating this strong potential for prejudice and actual prejudicial effects of
    this advisement.
    b
    Moreover, at least under the circumstances here, the court’s unconventional
    timing in orally delivering virtually all of its instructions may have significantly
    undermined any capacity that the court’s generalized instructions had to mitigate
    6
    (...continued)
    should “apply the law as [the court] explain[ed] it to [the jury].” R., Vol. III, at
    245 (“You must not substitute or follow your own notion or opinion as to what
    the law is or ought to be. It is your duty to apply the law as I explain it to you,
    regardless of the consequences.”). Arguably, this could have suggested to the
    jury that counsel’s statements and arguments should not be understood as
    providing the law of the case. However, even though the jury was thus informed
    that it should look to the court for the governing law, as we explain, the court
    unconventionally gave the jury this oral instruction approximately two days
    before it began deliberating, see infra, II.B.2.b—which may have significantly
    diminished the instruction’s capacity to mitigate the potential and actual
    prejudicial effects of the prosecution’s presumption-of-innocence advisement.
    And, more broadly, the substance of the court’s generalized instructions was
    unhelpful in mitigating the strong potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial
    effects—caused by this advisement.
    35
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    the strong potential for “serious infringement” of Mr. Starks’s constitutional
    rights—and also the actual prejudicial effects of the advisement. Mahorney, 
    917 F.2d at 473
    . The district court here acknowledged that the timing of its
    instructions was unconventional: with the exception of only a couple of
    instructions, the court elected to give the full set of instructions to the jury even
    before counsel started presenting evidence. See R., Vol. III, at 244. (“Well, folks,
    usually the instructions are given at the end of the case, right before closing
    arguments. It has always seemed to me that that got things backwards.”). As the
    court understood, the usual practice is to give the instructions to the jury at the
    end of the evidence—frequently, after counsel’s oral arguments. See, e.g., Neil P.
    Cohen, The Timing of Jury Instructions, 67 T ENN . L. R EV . 681, 694 (2000) (“The
    usual pattern in America is that jury instructions are given after closing arguments
    by both sides.”); 1 Kevin F. O’Malley et al., F ED . J URY P RAC . & I NSTR . § 7.1 (6th
    ed.), Westlaw (database updated Jan. 2022) (“The court’s charge generally
    follows the jury arguments.”); id. § 7.6 (noting that “the majority of judges
    deliver their instructions after final arguments”); see also Stephan Landsman, The
    Civil Jury in America, 62 L AW & C ONTEMP . P ROBS . 285, 299 (Spring 1999)
    (“Once all the evidence has been presented, it is the judge’s job to inform the jury
    of the law to be used in deciding the case.” (emphasis added)).
    Significantly, the court’s generalized instructions regarding the
    36
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    government’s beyond-a-reasonable-doubt burden (Instrs. 5 and 7) and the
    presumption of innocence constitutionally afforded to defendants (Instr. 6) were
    orally delivered to the jury on this unconventional schedule. And, crucially, the
    court did not repeat these important, bedrock instructions—or any of the others
    that it gave at the outset of the trial—at the close of the evidence. See R., Vol.
    III, at 485 (responding to a query from counsel regarding whether it would repeat
    the instructions at the close of the evidence, the court noted that it was “not going
    to go through the instructions again”).
    Therefore, as a consequence of the court’s approach, the jury heard the
    court’s oral instructions regarding most of the governing law only once and
    approximately two days before they began deliberations. And, in particular, the
    jury did not hear again—at the close of the evidence—the court’s oral instructions
    regarding the government’s burden of proof (i.e., Instrs. 5 and 7), nor the court’s
    instruction concerning the presumption of innocence that the Constitution affords
    to Mr. Starks (i.e., Instr. 6).
    We have never opined on the propriety of this unconventional instructional
    approach, and we do not need to lay down a one-size-fits-all categorical rule on
    the subject to resolve this case. In this regard, we recognize that the federal rules
    grant trial courts a certain amount of discretion regarding when they instruct the
    jury. See F ED . R. C RIM . P. 30(c) (“The court may instruct the jury before or after
    37
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 38
    the arguments are completed, or at both times.”). However, we are well aware
    that some courts have deemed such an unconventional approach—involving the
    pre-evidence oral delivery of instructions—to be problematic and even legally
    erroneous, where, as here, the full set of instructions is not repeated at the end of
    the presentation of evidence. And this is primarily because of concerns regarding
    the jury’s capacity to remember important legal principles before they deliberate.
    See, e.g., State v. Woolcock, 
    518 A.2d 1377
    , 1389 (Conn. 1986) (“While on
    occasion preinstructions may be necessary and trial judges should not shrink from
    acting, in the main we concur with Justice Fuchsberg when he said: ‘[T]he issue
    crystallization process can only achieve its potential if detailed instructions are
    given immediately before the jury’s deliberation. Introductory remarks are no
    substitute.’” (alteration in original) (citation omitted) (quoting People v. Newman,
    
    385 N.E.2d 598
    , 600 (N.Y. 1978))); State v. Nelson, 
    587 N.W.2d 439
    , 444 (S.D.
    1998) (concluding that trial court’s delivery of instructions concerning the
    presumption of innocence and reasonable doubt standard at the beginning of trial
    but not at the close of evidence violated a statutory mandate and constituted plain
    error, reasoning that “[p]reliminary instructions serve to inform jurors of their
    ‘function,’” but their use “never relieves the court of its duty to comprehensively
    inform jurors of the law at the close of the evidence,” and the idea “[t]hat jurors
    will remember instructions given at the beginning of a case may presume too
    38
    Appellate Case: 19-3256     Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022        Page: 39
    much” (quoting State v. Eagle Star, 
    558 N.W.2d 70
    , 74 (S.D. 1996))); United
    States v. Ruppel, 
    666 F.2d 261
    , 274 (5th Cir. 1982) (concluding that the district
    court erred in instructing the jury on the presumption of innocence at the
    beginning of the trial but failing to repeat the instructions at the close of trial
    eleven days later); State v. Romanosky, 
    859 P.2d 741
    , 742 (Ariz. 1993) (holding
    that the judge’s failure to re-instruct the jury regarding the reasonable doubt
    standard at the end of the evidence was reversible error); see also Saul M. Kassin
    & Lawrence S. Wrightsman, T HE A MERICAN J URY ON T RIAL : P SYCHOLOGICAL
    P ERSPECTIVES 146 (1988) (“Preliminary instructions . . . are not a substitute for
    the final charge, but a supplement to it.”); Cohen, supra, at 692 (“Of course, the
    early jury instructions will not replace the final instructions.”).
    This authority leads us, under the particular circumstances of this case, to
    conclude that the court’s unconventional timing in delivering its oral instructions
    may have undermined any capacity (albeit limited) that the court’s generalized
    instructions may have had to mitigate the strong potential for “serious
    infringement” of Mr. Starks’s constitutional rights—and the actual prejudicial
    effects—caused by the prosecution’s impermissible presumption-of-innocence
    advisement. Mahorney, 
    917 F.2d at 473
    ; see also Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 12 (“The
    unique and early timing of the oral jury instructions in this case (before, rather
    than after, the presentation of evidence) meant that the district court’s only oral
    39
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 40
    admonitions about the presumption of innocence were separated from the
    prosecutor’s misconduct by two days.”).
    Indeed, if the panel in Mahorney discerned substantial prejudice to the
    petitioner from a presumption-of-innocence advisement like the one here, we are
    hard pressed to say that the court’s unconventional timing in this case could
    produce a better outcome in mitigating prejudice. In that regard, recall that in
    Mahorney the court at least offered its generalized instructions regarding the
    government’s beyond-a-reasonable-doubt burden and the petitioner’s presumption
    of innocence after the close of the evidence and “before closing arguments.” 
    917 F.2d at
    474 n.5. But under the court’s unconventional timing here, the oral
    instructions were only delivered to the jury once before the presentation of
    evidence and approximately two days before the jury retired to deliberate.
    Moreover, the problematic effect of the court’s unconventional
    timing—that is, its delivery of most of its oral instructions only once before the
    presentation of evidence—is underscored when we contrast that timing with the
    timing of the prosecution’s delivery of its erroneous presumption-of-innocence
    advisement. The prosecution offered its advisement in closing argument so that
    one of the last things the jury heard before retiring to deliberate was the
    government’s uncorrected and erroneous statement that Mr. Starks no longer had
    a right to be presumed innocent. One might reasonably have concerns that the
    40
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022   Page: 41
    timing of this advisement, standing alone, could magnify its prejudicial effect.
    See, e.g., United States v. Velazquez, 
    1 F.4th 1132
    , 1140 (9th Cir. 2021)
    (concluding that an error was reversible where the prosecutor’s
    mischaracterization of the beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard in closing “was
    among the last things the jury heard before they began deliberations, . . .
    exacerbating [the court’s] concerns”); Girts v. Yanai, 
    501 F.3d 743
    , 760 (6th Cir.
    2007) (holding that an error was reversible where the prosecutor’s improper
    comments during closing arguments about the petitioner’s silence “were some of
    the last statements heard by the jury before deliberations”); see also Michael D.
    Cicchini, Combating Prosecutorial Misconduct in Closing Arguments, 70 O KLA .
    L. R EV . 887, 891–92 (2018) (“Because jurors enter deliberations with closing
    arguments . . . still ringing in their ears, those words could have more impact than
    the actual evidence presented much earlier in the case.”); 7 cf. United States v. De
    7
    Indeed, empirical research suggests that statements made in closing
    arguments—including, as here, improper comments or misstatements of law—are
    likely to have an outsized effect due to their temporal proximity to jury
    deliberations. See, e.g., Mary Nicol Bowman, Mitigating Foul Blows, 49 G A . L.
    R EV . 309, 343–44 (2015) (asserting that improper prosecutorial arguments, such
    as improper vouching for prosecution witnesses, “might be particularly powerful
    during closing arguments, as empirical research supports the common wisdom
    among trial advocates about the persuasive power of closing arguments on
    jurors”; specifically, “[e]mpirical research on the ‘recency effect’ suggests that
    people tend to remember best and be influenced by the latest event in a sequence
    more than by earlier events”); Mary Nicol Bowman, Confronting Racist
    Prosecutorial Rhetoric at Trial, 71 C ASE W. R ES . L. R EV . 39, 62–63 (2020)
    (“[The importance of] closing arguments is supported by psychological research
    (continued...)
    41
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022   Page: 42
    La Luz Gallegos, 
    738 F.2d 378
    , 383 (10th Cir. 1984) (concluding that an error
    was harmless because the government’s improper comments on the defendant’s
    silence in its opening statement were not “fresh in the minds of the jurors” after
    the presentation of evidence and closing statements). And those concerns could
    only be exacerbated here by the fact that the jury instructions—which customarily
    serve to mitigate the prejudice of impermissible arguments by counsel—were not
    given around the time of the prosecution’s erroneous statements but, instead, two
    days prior.
    7
    (...continued)
    on ‘recency effect,’ which involves a focus on the most recent information
    presented. ‘Recency effects arise when a fact-finder is presented with
    voluminous, challenging evidence, and they must make an immediate decision
    following trial.’ This research suggests that comments in closing arguments are
    likely to have outsized significance compared to comments in the middle of the
    trial.” (quoting Mark Spottswood, Ordering Proof: Beyond Adversarial and
    Inquisitorial Trial Structures, 83 T ENN . L. R EV . 291, 293 (2015))); Ryan Patrick
    Alford, Catalyzing More Adequate Federal Habeas Review of Summation
    Misconduct: Persuasion Theory and the Sixth Amendment Right to an Unbiased
    Jury, 59 O KLA . L. R EV . 479, 513–14 (2006) (“Empirical studies have also
    demonstrated that the recency effect is at play during trials; jurors are more likely
    to remember and be influenced by trial events that occur shortly before they begin
    deliberating. . . . Indeed, because of the recency effect, the closing argument has
    often been labeled the ‘make or break’ moment of the trial . . . .”); Hon. Amy J.
    St. Eve & Gretchen Scavo, What Juries Really Think: Practical Guidance for
    Trial Lawyers, 103 C ORNELL L. R EV . O NLINE 149, 168 (2018) (finding based on
    survey of more than 500 jurors that “[c]losing arguments matter to juries
    significantly more than opening statements,” likely due to recency effects). See
    generally Christoph Engel et al., Coherence-Based Reasoning and Order Effects
    in Legal Judgments, 26 P SYCHOL . P UB . P OL ’ Y & L. 333 (2020) (summarizing
    previous empirical research regarding recency effects, and conducting two studies
    on legal decision-making that “consistently observed recency effects”).
    42
    Appellate Case: 19-3256     Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022        Page: 43
    To be sure, the district court ensured that each juror had a written set of the
    instructions at the outset of the case and arranged for the original set of the
    written instructions to be delivered to the jury at the start of its deliberations.
    Indeed, the court went further, urging the jurors to review the instructions early in
    their deliberations and pointing out that their work as jurors would be “more
    productive” if they were familiar with “the legal principles upon which [their]
    verdict must be based.” R., Vol. I, at 171 (Instr. 34); accord 
    id.,
     Vol. III, at 621.
    However, these circumstances do not alter our belief that the district court’s
    unconventional timing here in delivering its oral instructions may have
    undermined the capacity for the instructions to mitigate the strong potential for
    prejudice—and actual prejudicial effects—caused by the prosecution’s
    presumption-of-innocence advisement. A court’s oral instructions play a unique
    role in ensuring that jurors gain an accurate and comprehensive understanding of
    a case’s governing legal principles—a role that written instructions arguably
    cannot replicate. See, e.g., United States v. Becerra, 
    939 F.3d 995
    , 1001 (9th Cir.
    2019) (“[M]any jurors may not adequately comprehend written instructions. It is
    no secret that jury instructions are often written in language more suitable for
    lawyers than laypersons. . . . When the instructions are read orally, tonal
    inflection can make the content of the instructions more accessible, as well as
    discourage the ‘tuning out’ common when reading dense material. Oral
    43
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141        Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 44
    instruction in the formal courtroom setting thus assures that jurors are exposed to
    the substance of the essential instructions by at least one sensual route.”); see also
    William W. Schwarzer, Communicating with Juries: Problems and Remedies, 69
    C ALIF . L. R EV . 731, 756 (1981) (“Oral instructions can be more easily followed
    and understood by jurors because they are less formalized.”); Robert Winslow,
    The Instruction Ritual, 13 H ASTINGS L. J. 456, 470 (1962) (“If we speak directly
    to the jury in a personalized manner during the so-called general instructions, we
    will be less likely to lose their attention.”). Indeed, there is reason to believe that
    this unique role of oral instructions would be most fully at play when the subject
    matter involves complex concepts, like the government’s beyond-a-reasonable
    doubt burden and the defendant’s presumption of innocence. Cf. Laurence J.
    Severance et al., Toward Criminal Jury Instructions that Jurors Can Understand,
    75 J. C RIM . L. & C RIMINOLOGY 198, 203–04 (1984) (concluding based on
    empirical research that jurors had particular “difficulty understanding instructions
    on ‘reasonable doubt’ and the closely linked concept of ‘presumption of
    innocence’”). Accordingly, at least under the particular circumstances here, we
    conclude that the court’s unconventional timing in orally delivering most of its
    instructions—before the presentation of evidence and not close in time to the
    prosecution’s erroneous presumption-of-innocence advisement—may have
    undermined the capacity of the (already unhelpful) generalized instructions to
    44
    Appellate Case: 19-3256      Document: 010110690141    Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 45
    mitigate the strong potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial effects—of the
    government’s advisement.
    c
    In addition to the generalized substance of the court’s instructions and the
    unconventional timing of their oral delivery, a factor that allowed for the strong
    potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial effects—of the government’s
    presumption-of-innocence advisement was the lack of strength of the
    government’s case.
    Contrary to the government’s assertion, the evidence against Mr. Starks on
    his possession-with-intent-to-distribute offenses of conviction was far from
    “overwhelming.” Cf. Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 21. As the government itself
    recognizes, “the main issue” was Mr. Starks’s “knowledge of the drugs in the
    Toyota”—that is, the vehicle that Ms. Avery was driving. 
    Id.
     The government
    had to prove beyond a reasonable doubt that Mr. Starks—who was occupying and
    driving the other car (the Chevy)—possessed those drugs “[o]n or about
    September 17, 2018,” the day of his arrest. R., Vol. I, at 109–11 (Second
    Superseding Indictment, filed Mar. 26, 2019). More specifically, the government
    had to prove that on that date Mr. Starks at least constructively possessed the
    narcotics in the Toyota.
    45
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    In this regard, the court gave the jury an instruction about possession and
    constructive possession, which is unchallenged here. It reads in part:
    The law recognizes two kinds of possession: actual possession
    and constructive possession. A person who knowingly has direct
    physical control over a thing, at a given time, is then in actual
    possession of it.
    A person who, although not in actual possession, knowingly has
    both the power and the intention, at a given time, to exercise
    dominion or control over a thing, either directly or through
    another person or persons, is then in constructive possession of
    it.
    
    Id. at 150
     (Instr. 15). There was a dearth of trial evidence that Mr. Starks
    possessed the narcotics in the Toyota—either actually or constructively—on
    September 17. Indeed, the government itself concedes that there was no direct
    evidence—be it “forensic evidence such as DNA or fingerprints” or anything
    else—that connected Mr. Starks to the drugs in the Toyota. Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at
    57. Moreover, even though Ms. Avery’s testimony inculpated Mr. Starks in other
    respects, as the government further acknowledges, she “did not tie [Mr. Starks]
    directly to the drugs in the Toyota.” 
    Id.
     at 56–57. Indeed, Ms. Avery could not
    shed any light whatsoever on whether Mr. Starks possessed the narcotics in the
    vehicle that she was driving because, according to her testimony, she was
    surprised herself upon arrest to learn that there were narcotics in the vehicle. And
    Mr. Starks made no incriminating statements connecting him to the narcotics in
    the Toyota. Nor, as he points out, was there any “surveillance evidence of Mr.
    46
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 47
    Starks dealing drugs at any point.” Aplt.’s Opening Br. at 43. Our observation in
    Chavez is thus apt here as well: “in evaluating the strength of the government’s
    case, the evidence that it did not produce is telling.” Chavez, 976 F.3d at 1210.
    Thus, the government’s case turned on circumstantial evidence—which,
    contrary to the government’s description, was hardly “powerful.” Cf. Aplee.’s
    Resp. Br. at 57. It summarized this evidence in the following way: “[Mr. Starks]
    made false exculpatory statements denying that he and [Mr.] Scott were traveling
    together with [Ms.] Avery and [Ms.] Watt; that [Ms.] Avery and [Ms.] Watt made
    a similar false exculpatory statement; and that [Mr. Starks] had a prior similar
    drug conviction.” Id. (citations omitted). This is hardly a smoking gun.
    “[F]alse exculpatory statements . . . ‘are admissible to prove
    circumstantially consciousness of guilt or unlawful intent.’” United States v.
    Davis, 
    437 F.3d 989
    , 996 (10th Cir. 2006) (quoting United States v. Zang, 
    703 F.2d 1186
    , 1191 (10th Cir. 1982)), cert. denied, 
    547 U.S. 1122
     (2006). And the
    government is correct that certain evidence—particularly, “the turnpike records
    and the phones found”—would have permitted the jury to reasonably infer that
    Mr. Starks’s statement denying knowledge of the occupants of the Toyota was
    false. Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 22. However, the government’s own recounting of
    the evidence reveals that Ms. Avery, too, made a false exculpatory statement at
    the time of her arrest; yet, the government did not require Ms. Avery to plead
    47
    Appellate Case: 19-3256     Document: 010110690141      Date Filed: 05/27/2022    Page: 48
    guilty to possessing with the intent to distribute the narcotics in the Toyota, and
    she denies knowing that the drugs were present in the vehicle. So, Mr. Starks’s
    false exculpatory statement is hardly dispositive of his knowledge and possession
    of these narcotics either. As for Mr. Starks’s prior narcotics conviction, the court
    expressly instructed the jury that “the fact that [Mr. Starks] may have previously
    committed an act similar to the one charged in this case does not mean that [Mr.
    Starks] necessarily committed the act charged in this case.” R., Vol. I, at 158.
    And we should at least presume that the jury followed this instruction. See, e.g.,
    Weeks, 
    528 U.S. at 234
    .
    Moreover, the jury’s inability to reach a verdict concerning Mr. Starks’s
    conspiracy charge suggests that this was a close case for the jury—or, at the very
    least, that the evidence regarding his counts of conviction was not
    overwhelming—because that evidence was not “substantially different” from the
    evidence the government used to prove up the conspiracy charge. Compare
    United States v. Reese, 
    745 F.3d 1075
    , 1090–91 (10th Cir. 2014) (concluding that
    counts of conviction did not present a “close case” because the evidence
    supporting these counts was “substantially different from the evidence on the
    counts of acquittal”), cert. denied, 
    574 U.S. 894
     (2014), with Sanchez v.
    Mondragon, 
    858 F.2d 1462
    , 1464, 1468 (10th Cir. 1988) (noting, where “[t]he
    court submitted four counts to the jury[] [for] battery, possession of a burglary
    48
    Appellate Case: 19-3256   Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022      Page: 49
    tool, aggravated burglary, and larceny,” that the defendant “was acquitted of both
    aggravated burglary and larceny, [thus] indicating that the jury had some doubts
    about his involvement in the crime”), overruled on other grounds by United
    States v. Allen, 
    895 F.2d 1577
     (10th Cir. 1990).
    To be sure, Ms. Avery’s testimony painted a picture for the jury of Mr.
    Starks as a seasoned drug trafficker and supplier of narcotics to Mr.
    Scott—including the type of drugs involved in Mr. Starks’s convictions, fentanyl
    and heroin. And she provided dramatic, detailed testimony of Mr. Starks’s
    supposed prior dealings with Mexican drug traffickers in seeking to secure
    narcotics for Mr. Scott—testimony that could have suggested to the jury a
    nefarious explanation for why two men, with names and birthdays identical to
    those of Mr. Scott and Mr. Starks, crossed the U.S.-Mexico border on foot at 9:00
    p.m. EST on September 7, 2018—ten days before the Kansas Troopers arrested
    them—and then eighteen minutes later returned to the United States on foot via
    that same entry-exit point, within one minute of each other.
    Yet Ms. Avery’s credibility “was open to question,” Chavez, 976 F.3d at
    1212—and that is saying the very least: she was testifying under a plea agreement
    in the hopes of securing leniency and was an admitted drug addict. And the
    court’s jury instructions properly warned the jury of the need to consider Ms.
    Avery’s testimony with greater caution than an ordinary witness. See, e.g., R.,
    49
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    Vol. I, at 159 (Instr. 24) (instructing, as to a government witness testifying under
    a promise of favorable treatment, that the jury “should examine [the witness’s]
    testimony with more caution and greater care than the testimony of an ordinary
    witness”); id. at 163 (Instr. 27) (“The testimony of a drug abuser must be
    examined and weighed by the jury with greater caution than the testimony of a
    witness who does not abuse drugs.”). Accordingly, Ms. Avery’s testimony was
    hardly the stuff of an overwhelming case.
    Thus, along with the generalized substance of the court’s instructions and
    the unconventional timing of their oral delivery, a factor that allowed for the
    strong potential for prejudice—and actual prejudicial effects—of the
    government’s presumption-of-innocence advisement was the lack of strength of
    the government’s case.
    ***
    In sum, we determine that the court’s error in allowing the government’s
    presumption-of-innocence advisement to stand uncorrected had a strong potential
    for prejudice and did in fact have some prejudicial effects. As we discuss below,
    we need not determine whether those prejudicial effects were of the magnitude,
    standing alone, to affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights, within the meaning of the
    plain-error test’s third prong. That is because when those prejudicial effects are
    cumulated with the prejudicial effects of two other errors, it is patent that Mr.
    50
    Appellate Case: 19-3256    Document: 010110690141       Date Filed: 05/27/2022     Page: 51
    Starks’s substantial rights were affected and his convictions are fatally infirm.
    C
    We conclude, under the particular circumstances of this case, that the
    prejudicial effects stemming from the government’s presumption-of-innocence
    advisement—when cumulated with the prejudicial effects of a preserved error
    relating to the troopers’ expert testimony and an unpreserved error pertaining to
    the prosecution’s vouching for Ms. Avery’s credibility—did affect Mr. Starks’s
    substantial rights, and his convictions cannot stand. In light of this cumulative-
    error conclusion, as with the presumption-of-innocence advisement, we have no
    need to make definitive determinations as to whether the prejudicial effects of
    each of the two additional errors, standing alone, would be sufficient to satisfy
    the third prong of the plain-error test.
    We first outline the doctrine of cumulative error and then explain why the
    prejudicial effects of the court’s errors with respect to the admission of the
    troopers’ expert testimony and the prosecution’s impermissible vouching
    regarding Ms. Avery’s credibility—when cumulated with the prejudicial effects
    arising from the presumption-of-innocence advisement—affected Mr. Starks’s
    substantial rights under the plain-error test’s third prong. And, lastly, we discuss
    why we exercise our discretion to reverse Mr. Starks’s convictions under that
    test’s fourth prong.
    51
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    1
    When we engage in a cumulative-error analysis, we typically “aggregate[ ]
    all the errors that individually have been found to be harmless, and therefore not
    reversible, and . . . analyze[ ] whether their cumulative effect on the outcome of
    the trial is such that collectively they can no longer be determined to be
    harmless.” Lopez-Medina, 
    596 F.3d at
    740–41 (emphasis added) (quoting Hooper
    v. Mullin, 
    314 F.3d 1162
    , 1178 (10th Cir. 2002)). But “there are inherent
    problems in cumulating unpreserved error[s] (reviewed for plain error) with
    preserved error[s] (reviewed for harmless error).” United States v. Caraway, 
    534 F.3d 1290
    , 1302 (10th Cir. 2008). Therefore, our case law instructs that, when
    there are both preserved and unpreserved errors, the cumulative-error analysis
    proceeds as follows:
    First, the preserved errors should be considered as a group under
    harmless-error review. If, cumulatively, they are not harmless,
    reversal is required. If, however, they are cumulatively harmless,
    the court should consider whether those preserved errors, when
    considered in conjunction with the unpreserved errors, are
    sufficient to overcome the hurdles necessary to establish plain
    error. In other words, the prejudice from the unpreserved error
    is examined in light of any preserved error that may have
    occurred. For example, the defendant may not be able to
    establish prejudice from the cumulation of all the unpreserved
    errors, but factoring in the preserved errors may be enough for
    the defendant to satisfy his burden of showing prejudice. If so,
    the fourth prong of plain-error review must then be examined.
    
    Id.
     Under this framework, we assume without deciding that each of the three
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    errors at issue here—though producing some prejudicial effects—would
    ultimately be determined, standing alone, to be harmless. Under this assumption,
    it is only when their prejudicial effects are cumulated that they affect substantial
    rights.
    2
    “We review a district court’s determination regarding the admissibility of
    evidence under an abuse of discretion standard.” United States v. Contreras, 
    536 F.3d 1167
    , 1170 (10th Cir. 2008). This includes the court’s decision regarding
    the admission of expert testimony under Federal Rule of Evidence 702. See
    United States v. Roach, 
    582 F.3d 1192
    , 1206 (10th Cir. 2009) (reviewing a court’s
    decision on “whether to admit or exclude an expert’s testimony for abuse of
    discretion” (quoting Dodge v. Cotter Corp., 
    328 F.3d 1212
    , 1223 (10th Cir.
    2003))); see also James River Ins. Co. v. Rapid Funding, LLC, 
    658 F.3d 1207
    ,
    1214 (10th Cir. 2011) (holding that the district court abused its discretion in
    admitting as a lay opinion testimony, what was actually expert opinion testimony
    “based on technical or specialized knowledge”).
    Federal Rule of Evidence 702 provides that “[a] witness who is qualified as
    an expert by knowledge, skill, experience, training, or education may testify in
    the form of an opinion.” 8 F ED . R. E VID . 702. Testimony becomes “expert
    8
    Conversely, Federal Rule of Evidence 701 provides that the
    (continued...)
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    testimony” when it addresses topics that are “beyond the realm of common
    experience and . . . require the special skill and knowledge of an expert witness.”
    James River Ins., 
    658 F.3d at 1214
     (quoting Randolph v. Collectramatic, Inc., 
    590 F.2d 844
    , 846 (10th Cir. 1979)).
    Knowledge drawn from experience in a specialized job—including, as here,
    a law enforcement officer’s knowledge of drug trafficking patterns and
    practices—falls “squarely” within the scope of expert testimony under Rule 702.
    United States v. Cristerna-Gonzalez, 
    962 F.3d 1253
    , 1259 (10th Cir. 2020)
    (addressing agent’s testimony on drug slang, culture, and trafficking protocol as
    expert testimony under Rule 702); accord United States v. Cushing, 
    10 F.4th 1055
    , 1079–80 (10th Cir. 2021). “Although the line is not always clear, . . .
    ‘opinion testimony premised on the officer’s professional experience as a whole
    is expert testimony’ under Rule 702.” United States v. Draine, 
    26 F.4th 1178
    ,
    1187 (10th Cir. 2022) (emphasis added) (quoting Cushing, 10 F.4th at 1080); see
    also United States v. Kamahele, 
    748 F.3d 984
    , 998 (10th Cir. 2014) (“[W]e have
    long recognized that police officers can testify as experts based on their
    8
    (...continued)
    testimony of a witness who is not testifying as an expert is limited to opinions
    that are “not based on scientific, technical, or other specialized knowledge within
    the scope of Rule 702.” F ED . R. E VID . 701(c); see also United States v. Draine,
    
    26 F.4th 1178
    , 1187 (10th Cir. 2022) (noting that “‘a law-enforcement officer’s
    testimony based on knowledge derived from the investigation of the case at hand
    is typically regarded as lay testimony’ under Rule 701” (quoting United States v.
    Cushing, 
    10 F.4th 1055
    , 1080 (10th Cir. 2021))).
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    experience ‘[b]ecause the average juror is often innocent of the ways of the
    criminal underworld.’” (second alteration in original) (quoting United States v.
    Garcia, 
    635 F.3d 472
    , 477 (10th Cir. 2011))).
    The government does not dispute that Mr. Starks preserved at trial his
    challenge to the admission of the expert testimony of Troopers Goheen and
    Birney, 9 and that the district court abused its discretion in admitting this
    testimony. However, the government argues that the court’s error in admitting
    this testimony was harmless and should not lead to reversal. Having evaluated
    the balance of the evidence, we are willing to at least assume that this is true, but
    only insofar as this expert-testimony error is considered in isolation. But that
    does not mean that the error was devoid of some prejudicial effects. And we
    conclude that the cumulative effects of this error with the two other errors
    addressed here affected Mr. Starks’s substantial rights.
    Recall that the major deficiency in the government’s case pertained to the
    lack of evidence connecting Mr. Starks to the narcotics in Ms. Avery’s vehicle
    (i.e., the Toyota). As the government itself tells us, “the main issue in the case . .
    . was whether [Mr. Starks] had knowledge of the drugs in the Toyota.” Aplee.’s
    9
    Mr. Starks’s counsel timely objected to five statements from
    Troopers Goheen and Birney on the grounds that they constituted impermissible
    expert testimony and were introduced without appropriate notice under federal
    discovery rules. See F ED . R. C RIM . P. 16(a)(1)(G). Those objections were
    overruled, but preserved for appeal. See Rogers v. Roth, 
    477 F.2d 1154
    , 1160
    (10th Cir. 1973).
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    Resp. Br. at 21. Yet there was a dearth of evidence indicating that Mr. Starks
    knew there were narcotics in that vehicle and contemporaneously intended to
    exercise dominion or control over them—that is, to constructively possess the
    narcotics (as well as, of course, a lack of evidence of actual possession). Indeed,
    though Ms. Avery’s testimony incriminated Mr. Starks in other respects, she
    could not shed any light on whether Mr. Starks possessed (actually or
    constructively) the narcotics in the vehicle that she was driving because,
    according to her testimony, she was surprised herself upon arrest to learn that
    there were narcotics in the vehicle.
    Critically, the improperly admitted expert testimony of the troopers
    significantly helped to fortify the proof regarding the “main issue,” 
    id.,
     in the
    government’s case. In particular, this testimony purported to educate the jury
    regarding the patterns and practices of drug traffickers relating to the vehicular
    movement of narcotics. The government sought to demonstrate through this
    expert testimony that Mr. Starks drove his vehicle in a manner consistent with the
    practices of drug traffickers. In other words, the troopers offered their opinions,
    as experts, that Mr. Starks drove his vehicle in a manner consistent with the
    conduct of one who knew that he was facilitating the movement of narcotics. For
    example, recall that Trooper Goheen testified that Mr. Starks was traveling on an
    interstate drug-trafficking route, see R., Vol. III, at 277, and that, based on his
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    training and experience, drug traffickers use “escort vehicles or decoys” to divert
    law enforcement from load vehicles, 
    id.
     at 357–58. And Trooper Birney testified
    that, based on his training and experience, “just everything [was] adding up” that
    the two vehicles in this case and their occupants were operating together. Id. at
    411.
    The troopers’ improper expert testimony thus lent credence to the
    government’s contention that Mr. Starks constructively possessed with intent to
    distribute the narcotics in the vehicle that Ms. Avery was driving. Indeed, from
    this testimony, a reasonable jury arguably could infer that not only did Mr. Starks
    know the identities of the individuals occupying the vehicle driven by Ms. Avery,
    but also that he knew that the vehicle contained and was transporting narcotics for
    distribution.
    Furthermore, through its statements to the jury at the beginning and the end
    of the trial, the prosecution stressed that the officers’ expert testimony concerning
    the patterns and practices of drug traffickers mirrored the actual driving patterns
    and practices of Mr. Starks. For instance, alluding to the troopers’ expected
    testimony, the prosecution pointed out that “you’ll have an escort vehicle. That
    escort vehicle’s job is to make sure the dope gets home, it gets to the ultimate
    source.” Id. at 77. And then shortly thereafter, in discussing Trooper Goheen’s
    actual observations of the vehicles being driven by Mr. Starks and Ms. Avery, the
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    prosecution said, “[t]urns out [Mr. Starks] was driving that escort vehicle.” Id. at
    78.
    Moreover, during closing arguments, the government emphasized the
    importance of this testimony, saying:
    Remember the testimony of Trooper Goheen. Trooper Goheen
    told you that based on his training and experience, what you see
    in interdiction is a load car and then an escort car. In this case,
    who’s driving that escort car? The defendant [i.e., Mr. Starks].
    What does the defendant do? The defendant, when he sees the
    trooper pulling up along side, about to pull over the dope car, he
    whips over and tailgates a trooper.
    I challenge any of you to pull over and tailgate a trooper like that
    without knowing exactly what’s going to happen.
    Id. at 630. The government thus directly and strongly leaned into the troopers’
    status as experts in arguing that Mr. Starks’s otherwise unremarkable driving on
    the interstate bore the hallmarks of drug trafficking. See Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 6
    (“The prosecutor then exploited that expert testimony at the end of the trial during
    closing argument to establish the disputed issues that the government
    acknowledges no direct evidence proved: Mr. Starks’s possession, control, and
    intent with respect to the drugs.”).
    The impact of the troopers’ improperly admitted expert testimony was thus
    significant. It fortified the proof regarding the “main issue,” Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at
    21, in the government’s case against Mr. Starks—that is, whether he
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    constructively possessed the narcotics in the Toyota being driven by Ms. Avery.
    Consequently, we can say that this error at least had some prejudicial effects
    during Mr. Starks’s trial. 10 We already have homed in on and discussed at some
    length the prejudicial effects of one of the unpreserved errors—perhaps the most
    problematic one—related to the prosecution’s presumption-of-innocence
    advisement. Now we turn to examine the other unpreserved error related to the
    government’s vouching for Ms. Avery’s credibility. 11
    3
    “It is a due process error for a prosecutor to indicate ‘a personal belief in
    10
    It is not a sufficient rebuttal to this assertion to say—as the
    government does—that the troopers would have been qualified as experts in any
    event. See Aplee.’s Resp. Br. at 25 (“Because the troopers could have been
    qualified under Rule 702 to give the testimony, the failure to so qualify them was
    harmless.”). This may be a persuasive argument under some circumstances. Cf.
    Draine, 26 F.4th at 1189 (in concluding the defendant had not established that his
    substantial rights were affected by the admission of expert law enforcement
    testimony, observing that “he has not shown that, had he objected or had the
    district court addressed sua sponte [the officers’] qualifications, they likely would
    have been found unqualified under Rule 702”). But, as Mr. Starks points out, he
    “did not just object that the troopers were not properly qualified. He objected
    that he did not receive proper notice of the substance of their testimony . . . .”
    Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 8. Moreover, we assume in this discussion that the error,
    standing alone, was ultimately harmless, as the government argues; that is not
    logically inconsistent, however, with our conclusion that the error at least had
    some prejudicial effects.
    11
    Ordinarily, under Caraway’s framework, we would cumulate other
    preserved errors first. See Caraway, 
    534 F.3d at 1302
    . But there are no such
    errors amongst the errors that we have targeted for analysis. So, we proceed to
    cumulate the preserved error regarding the troopers’ expert testimony with the
    two unpreserved errors that we have elected to address.
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    the witness’ credibility . . . .’” United States v. Jones, 
    468 F.3d 704
    , 707 (10th
    Cir. 2006) (quoting United States v. Bowie, 
    892 F.2d 1494
    , 1498 (10th Cir.
    1990)). Discouraging prosecutors from engaging in vouching is critical because
    “the prosecutor’s opinion carries with it the imprimatur of the Government and
    may induce the jury to trust the Government’s judgment rather than its own view
    of the evidence.” Young, 
    470 U.S. at
    18–19. We distinguish between a
    prosecutor’s “fair[ ] comment on the evidence” to a jury, United States v. Orr,
    
    692 F.3d 1079
    , 1097 (10th Cir. 2012), which is permissible, and “vouching by an
    attorney as to the veracity of a witness[, which] is improper conduct and an error
    which this Court will carefully review,” United States v. Swafford, 
    766 F.2d 426
    ,
    428 (10th Cir. 1985). “An argument is only improper vouching ‘“if the jury could
    reasonably believe that the prosecutor is indicating a personal belief in the
    witness’ credibility, either through explicit personal assurance of the witness’
    veracity or by implicitly indicating that information not presented to the jury
    supports the witness’ testimony.”’” United States v. Franklin-El, 
    555 F.3d 1115
    ,
    1125 (10th Cir. 2009) (quoting United States v. Magallanez, 
    408 F.3d 672
    , 680
    (10th Cir. 2005)); accord Anaya, 727 F.3d at 1053–54. In other words,
    “[v]ouching requires ‘either . . . explicit personal assurances of the witness’s
    veracity or . . . implicit[] indicat[ions] that information not presented to the jury
    supports the witness’s testimony.’” Anaya, 727 F.3d at 1053 (second and third
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    alterations and omissions in original) (quoting Orr, 692 F.3d at 1097); see also
    Christy, 916 F.3d at 834 (concluding that statement in rebuttal closing argument
    that the witness was “probably the most sincere witness the prosecutor had ever
    seen” constituted plainly improper vouching).
    Invoking the plain-error rubric, Mr. Starks argues that the prosecution
    improperly vouched for the credibility of Ms. Avery’s testimony. Specifically,
    the prosecution stated that Ms. Avery was bound to a plea agreement requiring
    her “only to do one thing: [t]ell the truth.” R., Vol. III, at 631. The prosecution
    added, “[n]obody has ever told her to do anything other than tell the truth. And
    she sat there and she told you the absolute truth . . . .” Id. Mr. Starks’s counsel
    did object to this statement as improper vouching. The district court sustained the
    objection and instructed the jury to disregard the statement. Nevertheless, Mr.
    Starks concedes here that his appellate challenge to the prosecution’s vouching
    was not preserved and subject to plain-error review because he “did not request
    further curative action when his objections were sustained.” 12 Aplt.’s Opening
    Br. at 33. He maintains, however, that this error was clear or obvious, violated
    his substantial rights, and should lead us to rule in his favor under the plain-error
    standard. Notably, the government does not dispute that the prosecution
    committed clear or obvious error; however, it contends that the error did not
    12
    We accept Mr. Starks’s concession on the preservation question and
    do not independently opine on the matter.
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    affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights—i.e., the error did not satisfy the plain-error
    test’s third prong.
    We assume without deciding, for purposes of our cumulative-error analysis,
    that the government is correct—that Mr. Starks has not satisfied the third prong,
    when this error is considered alone. But that does not mean that this error was
    devoid of all prejudicial effects. The credibility of Ms. Avery’s testimony was
    critical to the prosecution’s case. In particular, Ms. Avery’s testimony painted a
    picture for the jury of Mr. Starks as a seasoned drug trafficker and supplier of
    narcotics to Mr. Scott—including the drugs involved in Mr. Starks’s convictions,
    fentanyl and heroin. And she provided dramatic, detailed testimony of Mr.
    Starks’s supposed prior dealings with Mexican drug traffickers in seeking to
    secure narcotics for Mr. Scott—testimony that could have suggested to the jury an
    illicit reason why two men, with names and birthdays identical to those of Mr.
    Scott and Mr. Starks, crossed the U.S.-Mexico border on foot at 9:00 p.m. EST on
    September 7, 2018—ten days before the Kansas Troopers arrested them—and then
    eighteen minutes later returned to the United States on foot via that same entry-
    exit point, within one minute of each other.
    However, as we have noted, Ms. Avery’s credibility clearly “was open to
    question,” Chavez, 976 F.3d at 1212: she was testifying under a plea agreement in
    the hopes of securing leniency and was an admitted drug addict. And the court
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    properly instructed the jury about the need to consider Ms. Avery’s testimony
    with comparatively greater caution. 13 Accordingly, almost any elevation of Ms.
    Avery’s credibility standing in the eyes of the jury would have been beneficial in
    some appreciable measure to the government’s case. And Mr. Starks makes at
    least a colorable argument that the court’s “curative instruction was not strong
    enough to mitigate the harm.” Aplt.’s Reply Br. at 13 (citing United States v.
    Alancantara-Castillo, 
    788 F.3d 1186
    , 1197–98 (9th Cir. 2015)). Accordingly,
    even though we assume that that this vouching error was not sufficient, standing
    alone, to affect Mr. Starks’s substantial rights, we cannot conclude that the
    government’s vouching for the credibility of Ms. Avery’s testimony did not
    benefit the government’s case and appreciably prejudice Mr. Starks.
    4
    When the prejudicial effects of the preserved error relating to the troopers’
    expert testimony and the unpreserved error concerning the prosecution’s vouching
    for the credibility of Ms. Avery’s testimony are combined with the prejudicial
    effects stemming from the court’s failure to correct the government’s
    presumption-of-innocence advisement, we conclude that Mr. Starks’s substantial
    13
    See, e.g., R., Vol. I, at 159 (Instr. 24) (instructing, as to a
    government witness testifying under a promise of favorable treatment, that the
    jury “should examine [the witness’s] testimony with more caution and greater
    care than the testimony of an ordinary witness”); 
    id. at 163
     (Instr. 27) (“The
    testimony of a drug abuser must be examined and weighed by the jury with
    greater caution than the testimony of a witness who does not abuse drugs.”).
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    rights were affected. In this regard, recall that the latter error involving the
    presumption of innocence “went directly to a fundamental precept guiding the
    factfinder’s evaluation of guilt or innocence.” Mahorney, 
    917 F.2d at 474
    . The
    government effectively told the jury that when it was deliberating regarding the
    elements of Mr. Starks’s charged offenses—including the critical element of
    (constructive) possession—that Mr. Starks no longer was clothed in the
    presumption of innocence, a presumption that properly “is extinguished only upon
    the jury’s determination that guilt has been established beyond a reasonable
    doubt.” 
    Id.
     at 471 n.2 (second emphasis added). Accordingly, applying the
    cumulative-error doctrine under the circumstances here, we conclude that the
    plain-error test’s third prong is satisfied—that is, Mr. Starks has established that
    his substantial rights were violated.
    5
    Lastly, applying the cumulative-error rubric, we exercise our discretion
    under the plain-error test’s fourth prong to notice this cumulative prejudice and
    reverse Mr. Starks’s convictions. At issue here, in substantial part, are errors of
    constitutional magnitude. And where such errors are present under plain-error
    review, “reversal usually directly cures the constitutional infirmity and, as a
    result, the failure to notice and correct the constitutional error would impugn the
    fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial proceedings.” United States v.
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    Mozee, 
    405 F.3d 1082
    , 1091 (10th Cir. 2005); see also Gonzalez-Huerta, 
    403 F.3d at 745
     (Hartz, J., concurring) (“Not to reverse to correct the error is to ignore the
    injury the defendant suffered from the violation of his or her constitutional
    rights.”).
    Furthermore, it is difficult to overstate the importance of the presumption
    of innocence to the fairness and integrity of our criminal justice system. The
    presumption of innocence is a “bedrock ‘axiomatic and elementary’ principle
    whose ‘enforcement lies at the foundation of the administration of our criminal
    law.’” In re Winship, 
    397 U.S. 358
    , 363 (1970) (quoting Coffin v. United States,
    
    156 U.S. 432
    , 453 (1895)); accord Taylor v. Kentucky, 
    436 U.S. 478
    , 483 (1979).
    And the right to be presumed innocent is especially important in a case like this
    one, where the evidence was circumstantial and not overwhelming. Under these
    circumstances, the presumption of innocence “cautions the jury to put away from
    their minds all the suspicion that arises from the arrest, the indictment, and the
    arraignment, and to reach their conclusion solely from the legal evidence
    adduced.” Taylor, 436 U.S. at 485. But Mr. Starks’s jury was told that this
    presumption evaporated at the close of the evidence—before it began deliberating
    on his guilt and innocence.
    In light of these important considerations, we exercise our discretion to
    notice the cumulative prejudicial effects of the three errors discussed above and
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    determine that these errors “seriously affect[ed] the fairness, integrity, or public
    reputation of [the] judicial proceedings.” United States v. Alapizco-Valenzuela,
    
    546 F.3d 1208
    , 1222 (10th Cir. 2008) (quoting United States v. Lopez-Flores, 
    444 F.3d 1218
    , 1221 (10th Cir. 2006)). Accordingly, Mr. Starks’s convictions cannot
    stand.
    III
    For the foregoing reasons, we REVERSE the district court’s judgment and
    REMAND the case, instructing the court to VACATE Mr. Starks’s convictions
    and conduct further proceedings not inconsistent with this opinion.
    66