United States v. Muskett ( 2020 )


Menu:
  •                                                                                      FILED
    United States Court of Appeals
    PUBLISH                                  Tenth Circuit
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS                           August 14, 2020
    Christopher M. Wolpert
    FOR THE TENTH CIRCUIT                               Clerk of Court
    _________________________________
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.                                                           No. 17-2123
    (D.C. Nos. 1:16-CV-00596-MCA-SMV &
    DONOVAN MUSKETT,                                       1:13-CR-00980-MCA-1)
    (D. N.M.)
    Defendant - Appellant.
    _________________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of New Mexico
    (D.C. No. 1:16-CV-00596-MCA-SMV)
    _________________________________
    Aric G. Elsenheimer, Assistant Federal Public Defender, Albuquerque, New Mexico, for
    Defendant - Appellant.
    Jennifer M. Rozzini, Assistant United States Attorney (John C. Anderson, United States
    Attorney, with her on the brief), Albuquerque, New Mexico, for Plaintiff - Appellee.
    _________________________________
    Before BACHARACH, McHUGH, and EID, Circuit Judges.
    _________________________________
    McHUGH, Circuit Judge.
    _________________________________
    In this 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     case, Donovan Muskett appeals the denial of his motion
    to vacate his federal conviction for brandishing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of
    violence on the basis of the Supreme Court’s decision in United States v. Davis, 
    139 S. Ct. 2319
     (2019) (invalidating the residual clause in 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)’s definition of a
    “crime of violence” as unconstitutionally vague).
    The parties’ primary dispute on appeal is whether Mr. Muskett’s predicate federal
    felony—assault with a dangerous weapon, 
    18 U.S.C. § 113
    (a)(3)—qualifies as a crime of
    violence under the elements clause, 1 thereby rendering harmless the Davis defect in his
    conviction. Mr. Muskett suggests that we must conduct this analysis using the law as it
    existed at the time of his conviction because application of current law would violate due
    process limits on the retroactive application of judicial decisions enlarging criminal
    liability.
    As explained below, our precedent compels the conclusion that assault with a
    dangerous weapon is categorically a crime of violence under the elements clause. And we
    conclude that at the time of his offense, Mr. Muskett had fair notice that § 924(c)’s
    elements clause could ultimately be construed to encompass his commission of assault
    with a dangerous weapon. We thus affirm the district court’s denial of Mr. Muskett’s
    § 2255 motion.
    1
    The government’s briefing, as well as some lower court decisions, refer to the
    definition of “crime[s] of violence” set forth at § 924(c)(3)(A) as the “force clause” rather
    than the “elements clause.” See, e.g., App. Vol. I, at 53 (“[T]he United States only needs
    to establish that one of these predicates is a crime of violence under the force clause.”). In
    this opinion, we follow the Supreme Court’s convention in Davis of referring to that
    definition as the “elements clause.”
    2
    I.   BACKGROUND
    A. Mr. Muskett’s Federal Conviction
    On August 22, 2013, a grand jury returned a superseding indictment that charged
    Mr. Muskett with four counts: assault with a dangerous weapon in Indian Country under
    
    18 U.S.C. § 113
    (a)(3); aggravated burglary in Indian Country (based on New Mexico’s
    aggravated burglary statute by way of the federal Assimilative Crimes Act); using,
    carrying, possessing, and brandishing a firearm during and in relation to and in
    furtherance of a crime of violence under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c); and negligent child abuse in
    Indian Country.
    On November 6, 2013, Mr. Muskett entered into a plea agreement pursuant to
    Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 11(c)(1)(C). 2 Under that agreement, Mr. Muskett
    pleaded guilty only to the § 924(c) charge 3 (for using, carrying, possessing, and
    brandishing a firearm in furtherance of a crime of violence), and the government agreed
    to dismiss the three remaining counts. Pursuant to Rule 11(c)(1)(C), the parties agreed
    2
    Plea agreements reached under Rule 11(c)(1)(C) contain provisions requiring the
    government to “agree that a specific sentence or sentencing range is the appropriate
    disposition of the case, or that a particular provision of the Sentencing Guidelines, or
    policy statement, or sentencing factor does or does not apply (such a recommendation or
    request binds the court once the court accepts the plea agreement).”
    3
    To be convicted under § 924(c), a defendant need not be convicted of, or even
    charged with, a predicate crime of violence. Rather, a violation of § 924(c) is complete
    when a firearm is used, carried, possessed, or brandished in furtherance of a felony crime
    of violence “for which the [defendant] may be prosecuted in a court of the United States.”
    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(1)(A) (emphasis added).
    3
    that, contingent on the district court’s acceptance of the plea agreement, Mr. Muskett
    would be sentenced to an 84-month term of imprisonment.
    On March 11, 2014, the district court accepted Mr. Muskett’s plea and sentenced
    him to 84 months of imprisonment followed by a three-year term of supervised release. 4
    B. Mr. Muskett’s § 2255 Proceedings
    On June 16, 2016, just under a year after the Supreme Court invalidated the
    Armed Career Criminal Act’s residual clause definition of “violent felony” in Johnson v.
    United States, 
    135 S. Ct. 2551
     (2015), Mr. Muskett filed a 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
     motion
    seeking to vacate his conviction and to “set this matter for resentencing on the remaining
    counts of the indictment.” App. Vol. I, at 31–42. Mr. Muskett argued that the residual
    clause invalidated by Johnson was “materially indistinguishable from the residual clause
    under [§] 924(c),” and thus § 924(c)’s residual clause was similarly unconstitutional.
    App. Vol. I, at 34. Mr. Muskett further asserted that none of his predicate, dismissed
    charges qualified as crimes of violence under § 924(c)’s elements clause, and thus his
    conviction could not be sustained under that definition.
    On June 2, 2017, the magistrate judge to whom Mr. Muskett’s § 2255 motion had
    been referred issued proposed findings and a recommendation that Mr. Muskett’s motion
    4
    According to the Bureau of Prisons’ Inmate Locator, of which we may take
    judicial notice, Mr. Muskett was released from prison on February 14, 2020. His release
    did not moot his § 2255 motion challenging his conviction, however, because if he were
    successful before us, his conviction would be vacated entirely, thereby eliminating his
    three-year term of supervised release—which portion of his sentence also continues to
    satisfy the “in custody” requirement of § 2255. See United States v. Cervini, 
    379 F.3d 987
    , 989 n.1 (10th Cir. 2004).
    4
    be denied. The magistrate judge concluded that even if § 924(c)’s residual clause was
    invalid, Mr. Muskett’s commission of assault with a dangerous weapon (as criminalized
    by 
    18 U.S.C. § 113
    (a)(3)) satisfied the elements clause.
    Mr. Muskett timely objected to the magistrate’s conclusion that his conviction
    could be sustained under the elements clause, but on July 6, 2017, the district judge
    overruled that objection, adopted the magistrate’s findings and recommended disposition,
    denied Mr. Muskett’s § 2255 motion, and declined to issue a Certificate of Appealability
    (“COA”).
    Following a timely notice of appeal, Mr. Muskett filed his opening brief in this
    court in which he sought a COA. In March of 2019, the Clerk’s office entered an order
    abating Mr. Muskett’s appeal pending resolution of our then-pending appeal in United
    States v. Bowen, a case already abated pending the Supreme Court’s resolution of Davis.
    In June of 2019, the Supreme Court issued its decision in Davis, invalidating
    § 924(c)’s residual clause as “unconstitutionally vague.” 5 
    139 S. Ct. at 2336
    . In
    September of 2019, we issued our decision in Bowen, concluding that “Davis’s new rule
    5
    In its response brief, the government asserted, and then seemingly withdrew, a
    challenge to the timeliness of Mr. Muskett’s § 2255 motion on grounds that he failed to
    file a new motion after the Supreme Court issued its decision in Davis, and that he was
    required to do so to avail himself of the limitations period prescribed by § 2255(f)(3). See
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(3) (providing a one-year limitations period that begins to run on “the
    date on which the right asserted was initially recognized by the Supreme Court, if that
    right has been newly recognized by the Supreme Court and made retroactively applicable
    to cases on collateral review”). After the panel sought clarification at oral argument, the
    government explicitly relinquished its right to invoke timeliness as a bar to Mr. Muskett’s
    § 2255 motion. Oral Argument at 38:32–38:42. We accept that concession.
    5
    is substantive and therefore retroactively applicable to cases on collateral review.” United
    States v. Bowen, 
    936 F.3d 1091
    , 1100 (10th Cir. 2019).
    Shortly after our decision in Bowen, we entered an order lifting the abatement in
    this appeal and granting Mr. Muskett a broad COA encompassing the entirety of the
    district court’s denial of his § 2255 motion. We further ordered supplemental briefing to
    permit the parties to address the effect of Bowen and Davis on Mr. Muskett’s entitlement
    to post-conviction relief.
    II.   DISCUSSION
    Under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (a),
    A prisoner in custody under sentence of a court established by Act
    of Congress claiming the right to be released upon the ground that the
    sentence was imposed in violation of the Constitution or laws of the United
    States, or that the court was without jurisdiction to impose such sentence, or
    that the sentence was in excess of the maximum authorized by law, or is
    otherwise subject to collateral attack, may move the court which imposed
    the sentence to vacate, set aside or correct the sentence.
    Pursuant to this statute, Mr. Muskett seeks to vacate his conviction based on the Supreme
    Court’s invalidation of § 924(c)’s residual clause definition of a “crime of violence.” See
    Davis, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2336
    . The government counters that Mr. Muskett’s predicate federal
    felony—assault with a dangerous weapon—separately satisfies § 924(c)’s elements
    clause definition, and thus any Davis infirmity in Mr. Muskett’s conviction is harmless.
    “On appeal from the denial of a § 2255 motion, . . . we review the district court’s
    findings of fact for clear error and its conclusions of law de novo.” United States v.
    Snyder, 
    871 F.3d 1122
    , 1125 (10th Cir. 2017) (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Because the parties’ dispute on appeal is purely legal, our review is de novo.
    6
    To prevail on appeal, Mr. Muskett must establish that his conviction cannot be
    sustained under § 924(c)’s elements clause. 6 Under § 924(c)’s elements clause, an
    offense is a crime of violence if it “has as an element the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against the person or property of another.” 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3)(A). To determine whether Mr. Muskett’s commission of assault with a
    dangerous weapon qualifies as a crime of violence under the elements clause, we apply
    the categorical approach. See Bowen, 936 F.3d at 1102. Under that framework, we must
    first identify the minimum force required to commit the crime of assault with a dangerous
    weapon, and then “determine if that force categorically fits the definition of physical
    force.” United States v. Ontiveros, 
    875 F.3d 533
    , 535–36 (10th Cir. 2017) (quotation
    marks omitted).
    According to Mr. Muskett, we must decide whether his crime falls within the
    elements clause based on the law as it existed at the time he committed it. To better
    contextualize Mr. Muskett’s argument concerning retroactive application of current law,
    we begin our analysis by tracing the development of precedent from this court and the
    6
    As with collateral attacks based on the Supreme Court’s invalidation of the
    residual clause contained in the Armed Career Criminal Act, see Johnson v. United
    States, 
    135 S. Ct. 2551
     (2015), our analysis of a motion seeking relief on the basis of
    Davis proceeds in two stages. “The first question asks, as a matter of historical fact,
    whether the sentencing court relied on [§ 924(c)’s] residual clause” in accepting the plea
    and imposing a sentence. See United States v. Lewis, 
    904 F.3d 867
    , 872 (10th Cir. 2018)
    (emphasis in original). Only if the answer is yes do we proceed to the second stage, a
    harmless error analysis that asks whether the movant’s predicate crime separately
    qualifies under § 924(c)’s still-valid elements clause. See id. We conduct only the second
    inquiry here because the government concedes Mr. Muskett has established that his
    conviction rested on § 924(c)’s residual clause.
    7
    Supreme Court interpreting “physical force” as used in various federal statutes and the
    United States Sentencing Guidelines (the “Guidelines”).
    A. Changes in the Interpretation of “Physical Force”
    Now, as in 2013 when Mr. Muskett brandished a firearm in furtherance of the
    crime of assault with a dangerous weapon, the “force” component in “physical force”
    refers to “violent force—that is, force capable of causing physical pain or injury to
    another person.” Johnson v. United States (Curtis Johnson), 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 140 (2010).
    As indicated by the presence of “capable” in that definition, violent force “does not
    require any particular degree of likelihood or probability that the force used will cause
    physical pain or injury; only potentiality.” Stokeling v. United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 544
    , 554
    (2019). And now, as in 2013, “physical” refers to the type of force employed: “force
    exerted by and through concrete bodies—distinguishing physical force from, for
    example, intellectual force or emotional force.” Curtis Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 138
    .
    But while these definitions were static both before and after Mr. Muskett’s
    conduct, our precedent addressing whether such “physical force” must be applied directly
    to the person or property of another to qualify under the elements clause was not. That is,
    whether persons employ “physical force” when they do not directly impart such force
    onto the person or property of another (by, for example, poisoning another’s drink) has
    undergone some revision, at least in this court, in the period following Mr. Muskett’s
    offense.
    In United States v. Perez-Vargas, 
    414 F.3d 1282
     (10th Cir. 2005), overruled by
    Ontiveros, 
    875 F.3d 533
    , we analyzed whether Colorado’s crime of third-degree assault
    8
    was categorically a crime of violence so as to qualify for a sentencing enhancement under
    the Guidelines. 7 We explained that the predicate Colorado crime was committed when a
    defendant “knowingly or recklessly causes bodily injury to another person or with
    criminal negligence he causes bodily injury to another person by means of a deadly
    weapon.” 
    Id. at 1285
     (quoting 
    Colo. Rev. Stat. § 18-3-204
    ). And we noted that
    Colorado’s statute focused on the result of the defendant’s conduct (“bodily injury to
    another”), and as such could be violated by “recklessly shooting a gun in the air to
    celebrate, intentionally placing a barrier in front of a car causing an accident, or
    intentionally exposing someone to hazardous chemicals.” 
    Id. at 1286
    .
    By contrast, we explained, the Guidelines’ definition of “crime of violence”
    focused on the means “by which an injury occurs (the use of physical force).” 
    Id. at 1285
    ;
    accord United States v. Rodriguez-Enriquez, 
    518 F.3d 1191
    , 1194 (10th Cir. 2008)
    (“[T]he adjective physical must refer to the mechanism by which the force is imparted to
    the ‘person of another.’”), overruled by Ontiveros, 
    875 F.3d 533
    . We thus concluded that
    Colorado third-degree assault could be committed, as in one of the above hypotheticals,
    without the use of direct physical force, and was therefore “not categorically a crime of
    violence under [the Guidelines].” Perez-Vargas, 
    414 F.3d at 1287
    .
    7
    The Guidelines’ elements definition of “crime of violence” is indistinguishable
    from the elements clause in § 924(c) except that the Guidelines’ definition is limited to
    “physical force against the person of another,” U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2 cmt. n.2, whereas
    § 924(c) encompasses “physical force against the person or property of another,”
    § 924(c)(3)(A) (emphasis added).
    9
    In March of 2014—just one week after the sentencing court entered final judgment
    on Mr. Muskett’s conviction—the Supreme Court issued its decision in United States v.
    Castleman, 
    572 U.S. 157
     (2014). In that case, the Court resolved a circuit split regarding
    the level of force required to commit a “misdemeanor crime of domestic violence.” See
    
    18 U.S.C. § 921
    (a)(33)(A)(ii). Specifically, the Court interpreted the term “physical
    force” in that statute’s elements clause 8 to mean “the common-law meaning of ‘force.’”
    Castleman, 572 U.S. at 168. And the Court reiterated its conclusion from Curtis Johnson
    that “‘physical force’ is simply ‘force exerted by and through concrete bodies,’ as
    opposed to ‘intellectual force or emotional force.’” Id. at 170 (quoting Curtis Johnson,
    
    559 U.S. at 138
    ). Under this expansive definition, “the common-law concept of ‘force’
    encompasses even its indirect application” and will be satisfied “by administering a
    poison or by infecting with a disease, or even by resort to some intangible substance,
    such as a laser beam.” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation marks omitted). “It is impossible,” the Court
    concluded, “to cause bodily injury without applying force in the common-law sense.” 
    Id.
    In light of Castleman’s expansive interpretation of “physical force,” we overruled
    Perez-Vargas’s direct-indirect distinction in Ontiveros, explaining that Perez-Vargas had
    8
    The elements clause definition of a domestic crime of violence is generally
    similar to § 924(c)’s elements clause, at least insofar as its “physical force” requirement
    is concerned. A “domestic crime of violence” is defined as an offense that “has, as an
    element, the use or attempted use of physical force, or the threatened use of a deadly
    weapon, committed by a current or former spouse, parent, or guardian of the victim, by a
    person with whom the victim shares a child in common, by a person who is cohabiting
    with or has cohabited with the victim as a spouse, parent, or guardian, or by a person
    similarly situated to a spouse, parent, or guardian of the victim.”
    10
    “relied on reasoning that is no longer viable.” Id. at 536, 538 (“To the extent that Perez-
    Vargas holds that indirect force is not an application of ‘physical force,’ that holding is
    no longer good law.”). We also expressly extended Castleman’s interpretation “to the
    ‘physical force’ requirement as used in a felony crime of violence.” Id. at 537.
    In sum, after Ontiveros, an offense will qualify as a “crime of violence” under
    § 924(c)(3)(A) if it “has as an element the use, attempted use, or threatened use” of
    physical force (as opposed to intellectual or emotional force), applied directly or
    indirectly, that is capable of causing physical pain or injury to “the person or property of
    another.” See § 924(c)(3)(A). With this definition in mind, we next analyze the minimum
    force required to commit assault with a dangerous weapon, 
    18 U.S.C. § 113
    (a)(3).
    B. The Elements of Assault with a Dangerous Weapon
    Title 18, U.S. Code § 113(a) criminalizes eight variations of assault. In United
    States v. Hathaway, 
    318 F.3d 1001
    , 1008 (10th Cir. 2003), we defined assault in § 113(a)
    “as either an attempted battery or as placing another in reasonable apprehension of
    immediate bodily harm.” Specifically, we explained, assault under § 113(a) is committed
    by “either a willful attempt to inflict injury upon the person of another, or by a threat to
    inflict injury upon the person of another which, when coupled with an apparent present
    ability, causes a reasonable apprehension of immediate bodily harm.” 9 Id. (quotation
    9
    In his supplemental opening brief, Mr. Muskett suggests that assault under
    § 113(a) can be committed by a mere “offensive touching.” Aplt.’s Suppl. Br. at 17. But
    we have long held that assault as used in § 113(a) requires an attempt or threat to “inflict
    injury.” See, e.g., United States v. Joe, 
    831 F.2d 218
    , 220 (10th Cir. 1987).
    11
    marks omitted); accord United States v. Verwiebe, 
    874 F.3d 258
    , 261 (6th Cir. 2017)
    (“[A]n individual may violate § 113 by (1) willfully attempting to inflict injury on
    another person or (2) threatening to inflict injury on another person, causing a reasonable
    apprehension of immediate bodily harm.”).
    Subsection (a)(3)—assault with a dangerous weapon—adds two elements to the
    above definition: first, the presence of a dangerous weapon, and second, the intent to do
    bodily harm. 
    18 U.S.C. § 113
    (a)(3) (“Assault with a dangerous weapon, with intent to do
    bodily harm, [is punishable] by a fine under this title or imprisonment for not more than
    ten years, or both.”).
    Combining the elements of assault with the additional elements prescribed by
    subsection (a)(3), the crime of assault with a dangerous weapon is committed when a
    person either (1) willfully attempts to inflict injury upon another person with a dangerous
    weapon and with the intent to do bodily harm, or (2) threatens to inflict injury upon the
    person of another with a dangerous weapon and with the intent and apparent present
    ability to do so, thereby causing reasonable apprehension of immediate bodily harm.
    Under this definition, assault with a dangerous weapon cannot be committed
    without the “attempted use, or threatened use of physical force against the person or
    property of another.” See 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3)(A). Stated simply, if one has attempted
    or threatened to inflict injury upon another person (thereby committing federal criminal
    assault), he has attempted or threatened physical force capable of causing physical pain or
    injury.
    12
    Mr. Muskett maintains that a conviction under § 113(a)(3) can be sustained
    without the use of “violent force—that is, force capable of causing physical pain or injury
    to another person.” Curtis Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 140
    . In support, he points to United
    States v. Spotted Horse, 
    916 F.3d 686
    , 689 (8th Cir. 2019), an appeal from a jury verdict
    convicting the defendant of three counts of assault with a dangerous weapon for beating
    the victim with a plastic spoon, a plastic blind wand (with which he struck the victim
    “numerous times across the back . . . as she screamed, cried, and begged him to stop”),
    and a plastic hanger (with which he struck the victim “across the back until the hanger
    broke”). The issues on appeal in Spotted Horse did not relate to the degree of force
    required to commit assault with a dangerous weapon. But even with the decision’s sparse
    description of the conduct, we easily conclude the force employed fell safely within the
    definition of “physical force”—repeatedly striking another person across the back with
    various plastic implements is plainly “capable of causing physical pain or injury.” Curtis
    Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 140
    .
    Mr. Muskett’s arguments to the contrary appear to be premised on an overreading
    of Curtis Johnson, suggesting that “physical force” requires resultant “serious physical
    injury.” Aplt.’s Suppl. Br. at 18 (emphasis added). But no such degree-of-injury
    requirement exists. Rather, a person exerts physical force when the force applied is
    “capable of causing physical pain or injury to another person.” Curtis Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 140
    ; see also Stokeling, 
    139 S. Ct. at 554
     (“[Curtis] Johnson . . . does not require any
    particular degree of likelihood or probability that the force used will cause physical pain
    or injury; only potentiality.”).
    13
    In sum, the crime of assault with a dangerous weapon cannot be committed
    without the use, attempted use, or threatened use of physical force capable of causing,
    directly or indirectly, physical pain or injury. Mr. Muskett’s commission of that offense is
    therefore categorically a crime of violence under § 924(c)’s elements clause.
    C. Mr. Muskett’s Fair Notice Challenge
    Mr. Muskett argues that we should decline to apply Ontiveros (in which we
    overruled our previously recognized distinction between direct and indirect physical
    force) because that case was decided after his commission of assault with a dangerous
    weapon. To give it retroactive effect, Mr. Muskett suggests, would be to deprive him of
    his due process right to have fair notice of what the law proscribes.
    Mr. Muskett characterizes this challenge as an ex post facto attack. But the Ex
    Post Facto Clause, appearing in Article I of the Constitution, “is a limitation upon the
    powers of the Legislature and does not of its own force apply to the Judicial Branch of
    government.” Marks v. United States, 
    430 U.S. 188
    , 191 (1977) (citation omitted); see
    U.S. Const. art. I, § 9, cl. 3 (“No . . . ex post facto Law shall be passed.”). It is the Due
    Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment that imposes “limitations on ex post facto
    judicial decisionmaking.” Rogers v. Tennessee, 
    532 U.S. 451
    , 456 (2001).
    Under the Due Process framework, “[i]f a judicial construction of a criminal
    statute is unexpected and indefensible by reference to the law which had been expressed
    prior to the conduct in issue, it must not be given retroactive effect.” Bouie v. City of
    Columbia, 
    378 U.S. 347
    , 354 (1964) (internal quotation marks omitted). “[A]lthough
    clarity at the requisite level may be supplied by judicial gloss on an otherwise uncertain
    14
    statute, due process bars courts from applying a novel construction of a criminal statute to
    conduct that neither the statute nor any prior judicial decision has fairly disclosed to be
    within its scope.” United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 266 (1997) (citations omitted).
    “[T]he touchstone is whether the statute, either standing alone or as construed, made it
    reasonably clear at the relevant time that the defendant’s conduct was criminal.” 
    Id. at 267
    .
    Retroactive application of Castleman and Ontiveros does not offend these
    principles for three reasons. First, at the broadest level, the enlargement effected by
    Castleman—and Ontiveros in turn—is a far cry from the kind of “novel” constructions
    found by the Supreme Court to deprive a defendant of fair notice. For example, in Bouie,
    the defendants had been convicted of violating a state statute criminalizing “entry upon
    the lands of another . . . after notice from the owner or tenant prohibiting such entry.” 
    378 U.S. at
    349–50 (quoting the then-existing version of South Carolina’s criminal trespass
    statute). But the defendants were convicted of that offense not for having entered
    premises in the face of notice prohibiting entry, but rather for having remained on
    premises after being told to leave. 
    Id.
     After the conduct giving rise to defendants’
    convictions, the South Carolina Supreme Court “construed the statute to cover not only
    the act of entry on the premises of another after receiving notice not to enter, but also the
    act of remaining on the premises of another after receiving notice to leave.” 
    Id. at 350
    .
    The retroactive application of this interpretation, the Supreme Court held,
    “violated the requirement of the Due Process Clause that a criminal statute give fair
    warning of the conduct which it prohibits.” 
    Id.
     Crucial to the Court’s holding was the fact
    15
    that the statutory language had evinced no ambiguity—the statute was “on its face . . .
    definite and precise.” 
    Id. at 353
    ; see Marks, 
    430 U.S. at 195
     (explaining that in Bouie,
    “[t]he statutory language . . . was ‘narrow and precise,’ and that fact was important to our
    holding that the expansive construction adopted by the State Supreme Court deprived the
    accused of fair warning” (quoting Bouie, 
    378 U.S. at 352
    )). Indeed, the Court noted, any
    “uncertainty as to the statute’s meaning [wa]s itself not revealed until the [state supreme]
    court’s decision.” Bouie, 
    378 U.S. at 352
    .
    Compounding the notice deficiency was the fact that the enlarged construction,
    “so clearly at variance with the statutory language, ha[d] not the slightest support in prior
    South Carolina decisions.” 
    Id. at 356
    . To the contrary,
    in the 95 years between the enactment of the statute in 1866 and [the
    expansive construction adopted in] 1961 . . . , the South Carolina cases
    construing the statute uniformly emphasized the notice-before-entry
    requirement, and gave not the slightest indication that the requirement
    could be satisfied by proof of the different act of remaining on the land
    after being told to leave.
    
    Id.
     at 356–57.
    By contrast, the language at issue here—“physical force”—cannot be said to have
    been “on its face . . . definite and precise,” see 
    id. at 353
    , nor was there an absence of
    judicial decisions revealing the direct-indirect ambiguity. Indeed, as explained in more
    detail below, federal courts have grappled with the uncertainty apparent on the face of the
    statute and have arrived at conflicting conclusions as to whether “physical force”
    encompasses indirect application. Thus, far from construing an unambiguous statute in
    unexpected and indefensible ways, Castleman (and our resulting correction in Ontiveros)
    16
    merely “supplied . . . judicial gloss on an otherwise uncertain statute.” See Lanier, 
    520 U.S. at 266
    .
    Second, the Supreme Court’s opinion in Curtis Johnson—decided nearly three
    years before the conduct that forms the basis of Mr. Muskett’s conviction—provided
    notice that the logic of Perez-Vargas rested on shaky foundations. In Curtis Johnson, the
    Supreme Court undertook an exhaustive interpretive dive into “physical force” as used in
    the Armed Career Criminal Act. Curtis Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at
    138–42. The Court
    explained that “physical” “plainly refers to force exerted by and through concrete
    bodies—distinguishing physical force from, for example, intellectual force or emotional
    force.” 
    Id. at 138
    . And in Castleman, the Supreme Court indicated that this portion of
    Curtis Johnson had, in part, foreclosed the logic we adopted in Perez-Vargas. 10
    The District Court [in this case] . . . reason[ed] that one can cause bodily
    injury “without the ‘use of physical force’”—for example, by “deceiving
    [the victim] into drinking a poisoned beverage, without making contact of
    any kind.” But as we explained in [Curtis] Johnson, “physical force” is
    simply “force exerted by and through concrete bodies,” as opposed to
    “intellectual force or emotional force.”
    
    Id. at 170
     (fourth alteration in original) (record citation omitted) (quoting Curtis Johnson,
    
    559 U.S. at 138
    ). Thus, although it did not specifically reject the direct-indirect
    distinction accepted by Perez-Vargas the way Castleman ultimately did, Curtis Johnson
    provided fair notice that “physical” did not refer to the physical relationship, as a
    10
    Although the Supreme Court decided Castleman after Mr. Muskett’s conduct, it
    relied heavily on the reasoning of Curtis Johnson, which was available before the
    conduct that forms the basis of the conviction here.
    17
    proximal matter, between the person imparting the force and the victim receiving it, but
    was rather used to distinguish the type of force (i.e., neither intellectual nor emotional)
    capable of causing physical pain or injury. And that construction provided sufficient
    notice that “physical force” might include any exertion of physical force (directly or
    indirectly) capable of causing physical pain or injury to another person, and that our
    previous interpretation to the contrary was incorrect.
    The dissent downplays the degree to which Curtis Johnson’s interpretation of
    “physical force” cast doubt on the viability of our earlier opinions embracing the direct-
    indirect distinction, asserting that neither Curtis Johnson nor our earlier opinions
    “need[ed]” to opine on the proper interpretation of “physical” as used in “physical force.
    Dissent at 6–7. We respectfully disagree. In Rodriguez-Enriquez, 
    518 F.3d at 1191, 1194, 1195
    , we found the reasoning of Perez-Vargas “instructive” in reaching the conclusion
    that “assault two (drugging a victim) under Colorado law” was not a crime of violence
    because “injury effected by chemical action on the body (as in poisoning or exposure to
    hazardous chemicals) should not be described as caused by physical force.” But aside
    from the “instructi[on]” of Perez-Vargas, our conclusion in Rodriguez-Enriquez was
    supported exclusively by an interpretation of “physical force” that was subsequently
    flatly rejected by Curtis Johnson. Compare Rodriguez-Enriquez, 
    518 F.3d at 1194
    (concluding that “the adjective physical must refer to the mechanism by which the force
    is imparted to the ‘person of another’” because it “seems highly unlikely” that it “is being
    used to distinguish the described force from a force generated by emotion, psychology,
    religion, or rhetoric”), with Curtis Johnson, 
    559 U.S. at 138
     (“The adjective ‘physical’
    18
    . . . . plainly refers to force exerted by and through concrete bodies—distinguishing
    physical force from, for example, intellectual force or emotional force.”). Given the
    centrality of our erroneous interpretation of “physical force” to the disposition of
    Rodriguez-Enriquez, an individual seeking to assure himself that he could impart indirect
    physical force capable of causing physical pain or injury upon another person without
    triggering criminal liability under § 924(c) would be rightly concerned by Curtis
    Johnson’s clear repudiation of our interpretation.
    Indeed, at oral argument, Mr. Muskett focused our attention on the interpretation
    adopted by Rodriguez-Enriquez, arguing he was entitled to rely on that opinion’s
    “thorough analysis of . . . the term ‘physical force’” and its resulting conclusion that
    “physical” does not refer to the effect of the force. Oral Argument at 4:30–4:45. We
    might be inclined to agree if the interpretation we rejected in Rodriguez-Enriquez as
    “highly unlikely” had not been subsequently adopted by the Supreme Court in Curtis
    Johnson. See Rodriguez-Enriquez, 
    518 F.3d at 1194
    . Thus, even if the dissent is correct
    that Mr. Muskett should be entitled to rely on settled in-circuit precedent notwithstanding
    an out-of-circuit opinion resolving the categorical question against him, there was
    nothing “settled” about Perez-Vargas and Rodriguez-Enriquez following the Court’s
    unambiguous rejection of our interpretation of “physical force” in Curtis Johnson.
    Third, the Supreme Court instructs that the existence of a circuit split on the scope
    of a criminal statute is sufficient to supply defendants with fair notice that the broader
    construction might ultimately be adopted, even when the defendant’s circuit has adopted
    the more narrow interpretation. In United States v. Rodgers, 
    466 U.S. 475
    , 484 (1984),
    19
    after construing the reach of a criminal statute against the defendant and contrary to the
    interpretation previously adopted by the circuit in which his case arose, the Supreme
    Court concluded that “any argument . . . against retroactive application to him of our
    present decision . . . would be unavailing since the existence of conflicting cases from
    other Courts of Appeals made review of that issue by this Court and decision against the
    position of the [defendant] reasonably foreseeable.” 11
    In 2009—almost four years before the conduct giving rise to the instant
    indictment—the Ninth Circuit decided United States v. Juvenile Female, 
    566 F.3d 943
    ,
    947 (9th Cir. 2009). In that case, after articulating the elements of assault with a
    dangerous weapon consistent with our definition above, the Ninth Circuit applied the
    categorical approach to conclude that “[a] defendant charged with . . . assault with . . . a
    dangerous weapon[] must have always ‘threatened [the] use of physical force,’ because
    he or she will have either made a ‘wil[l]ful attempt to inflict injury’ or a ‘threat to inflict
    injury.’” 
    Id. at 948
     (fifth alteration in original) (first quoting 
    18 U.S.C. § 16
    (a); and then
    quoting United States v. Chapman, 
    528 F.3d 1215
    , 1219–20 (9th Cir. 2008)).
    11
    The dissent relies on a law review article that advocates, as a normative matter,
    “for an alternative to the Rodgers rule.” See Trevor W. Morrison, Fair Warning and the
    Retroactive Judicial Expansion of Federal Criminal Statutes, 
    74 S. Cal. L. Rev. 455
    , 460
    (2001). The article is no doubt well-written and informative, but our task in this case is to
    apply the law as it has been announced by the Supreme Court, and as the article’s author
    concedes, the law, as a descriptive matter, is “that an individual may rely on Supreme
    Court precedent declaring his conduct to be outside the reach of a criminal statute, but
    may not rely on settled court of appeals precedent saying the same thing.” 
    Id.
    20
    The Ninth Circuit further rejected the argument we accepted in Perez-Vargas—
    that a criminal statute focusing on the resulting “bodily injury” did not categorically
    require physical force—reasoning that a defendant who committed an “assault resulting
    in bodily injury, necessarily must have committed an act of force in causing the injury.”
    
    Id.
     This is the precise reasoning adopted by the Supreme Court five years later in
    Castleman. See Castleman, 572 U.S. at 170 (“It is impossible to cause bodily injury
    without applying force in the common-law sense.”). And Castleman’s embrace of this
    logic led us to overrule Perez-Vargas in Ontiveros. See Ontiveros, 875 F.3d at 538 (“The
    [Castleman] Court specifically rejected the contention that ‘one can cause bodily injury
    without the use of physical force—for example, by deceiving [the victim] into drinking a
    poisoned beverage, without making contact of any kind.’” (second alteration in original)
    (quoting Castleman, 572 U.S. at 170)).
    Thus, the circuits were in disagreement as to whether “physical force”
    encompassed indirect force when Mr. Muskett committed his crime. And the Supreme
    Court’s decision in Castleman resolved this conflict against the position we adopted in
    Perez-Vargas and Rodriguez-Enriquez, relying on its prior decision in Curtis Johnson—
    also issued before Mr. Muskett’s crime. The incremental expansion of criminal liability at
    issue here, then, falls neatly within Rodgers. Consequently, as in Rodgers, “any argument
    . . . against retroactive application to [Mr. Muskett] of [the broader interpretation] . . . [is]
    unavailing since the existence of conflicting cases from other Courts of Appeals made
    review of that issue by th[e] Court and decision against the position of [Mr. Muskett]
    reasonably foreseeable.” See Rodgers, 
    466 U.S. at 484
    .
    21
    The dissent takes issue with our premise that circuit disagreement existed at the
    time of Mr. Muskett’s conduct. Instead, the dissent contends, there existed merely an
    “intra-circuit conflict” in the Ninth Circuit by virtue of two discordant opinions bearing
    on the direct-indirect force issue, neither of which possess precedential effect as a result
    of that court’s anomalous rule that “the appropriate mechanism for resolving an
    irreconcilable conflict is an en banc decision.” 12 Atonio v. Wards Cove Packing Co., 
    810 F.2d 1477
    , 1478–79 (9th Cir. 1987); see Dissent at 15–17. As a result, the dissent
    continues, at the time of Mr. Muskett’s offense, the Ninth Circuit had no “binding
    precedent” on the question of whether “physical force” must be imparted directly to
    qualify under the elements clause. Dissent at 18.
    12
    In United States v. De La Fuente, 
    353 F.3d 766
    , 771 (9th Cir. 2003), the
    defendant argued that mailing anthrax did not satisfy the elements clause at 
    18 U.S.C. § 16
    (a) because such conduct was not “forceful conduct, as the term ‘force’ ordinarily
    would be understood.” The Ninth Circuit rejected that argument, explaining that
    “[a]nthrax is a physical substance that causes injury to the human body, and [the
    defendant’s] letters clearly threatened death by way of physical contact with anthrax
    spores.” 
    Id.
    Four years later, in United States v. Beltran-Munguia, 
    489 F.3d 1042
    , 1046 (9th
    Cir. 2007), the Ninth Circuit analyzed the minimum force required to commit an Oregon
    rape offense. The Ninth Circuit began its analysis by noting that the plain language of the
    Oregon statute did not contain an element of force: “Instead, the victim’s lack of consent
    is the crime’s defining characteristic.” 
    Id. at 1045
    . Given that feature, the court found
    multiple ways in which the crime could be committed without satisfying the elements
    clause: “a perpetrator could commit second-degree sexual abuse by surreptitiously adding
    to his victim’s drink a drug that affects one’s judgment, thereby rendering her ‘mentally
    incapacitated’” and incapable of providing consent, or “the victim could be ‘mentally
    defective,’ yet fully physically cooperative.” 
    Id. at 1046
    .
    22
    Even if we agreed that the Ninth Circuit’s decisions—involving different predicate
    crimes than the one at issue here—created an actual intra-circuit split such that neither
    those decisions nor Juvenile Female would be regarded as precedential in the Ninth
    Circuit, we would still find that Juvenile Female provided some notice to Mr. Muskett.
    The unambiguous holding in Juvenile Female answers the precise question presented by
    this appeal: “A defendant charged with . . . assault with . . . a dangerous weapon[] must
    have always ‘threatened [the] use of physical force,’ because he or she will have either
    made a ‘wil[l]ful attempt to inflict injury’ or a ‘threat to inflict injury.” 
    566 F.3d at 948
    (fifth alteration in original) (first quoting 
    18 U.S.C. § 16
    (a); and then quoting United
    States v. Chapman, 
    528 F.3d 1215
    , 1219–20 (9th Cir. 2008)). That conclusion—
    indistinguishable from the categorical result we reach today—stood in direct opposition
    to what the dissent contends was the “unequivocal[]” law in this circuit at the time of Mr.
    Muskett’s offense. Dissent at 2.
    Thus, at the time of Mr. Muskett’s conduct, the Ninth Circuit had found Mr.
    Muskett’s crime to fall categorically within the elements clause definition of a crime of
    violence. By contrast, we had no direct precedent on this question, but an individual
    could arguably interpret our decisions in Perez-Vargas and Rodriguez-Enriquez
    (involving different predicate offenses but requiring that “physical force” be imparted
    directly) as mandating a conclusion contrary to the Ninth Circuit’s. Even if Mr. Muskett
    had discovered the allegedly irreconcilable intra-circuit split regarding direct-indirect
    force in the Ninth Circuit—which apparently went entirely undetected by the lawyers
    who litigated, and the jurists who decided, Juvenile Female—someone seeking to commit
    23
    assault with a dangerous weapon without triggering additional criminal liability under
    § 924(c) would be wisely concerned by the prospect that the Supreme Court might
    ultimately side with the Ninth Circuit. And if that individual, as the dissent seems to
    suggest, was sophisticated enough to extrapolate the reasoning of Perez-Vargas and
    Rodriguez-Enriquez to his prospective commission of assault with a dangerous weapon,
    he was also savvy enough to discern that the Supreme Court, in Curtis Johnson, had
    flatly rejected the interpretation of “physical force” on which we had based our earlier
    conclusions, thereby endorsing the Ninth Circuit approach.
    Ultimately, however, our rejection of Mr. Muskett’s due process challenge does
    not depend solely on the result of a forensic examination of Ninth Circuit precedential
    development or whether that court would characterize any particular opinion as binding
    precedent. We do not hold that circuit disagreement alone provided Mr. Muskett with fair
    notice. The Constitution demands only that “the statute, either standing alone or as
    construed, made it reasonably clear at the relevant time that the defendant’s conduct was
    criminal.” Lanier, 
    520 U.S. at 267
    . We conclude it was reasonably clear that Mr.
    Muskett’s conduct was criminal because at the time of his offense (1) the meaning of
    “physical force” remained unclear and therefore amenable to subsequent judicial
    interpretation; (2) the Court’s opinion in Curtis Johnson rejected the interpretation of
    “physical force” on which we had relied in requiring direct physical force; and (3) the
    Ninth Circuit had unequivocally found that Mr. Muskett’s predicate offense was
    categorically a crime of violence under the elements clause.
    24
    For all these reasons, it was reasonably foreseeable at the time Mr. Muskett
    brandished a firearm in furtherance of his commission of assault with a dangerous
    weapon that such conduct could trigger criminal liability under § 924(c)’s elements
    clause. As a result, the retroactive application of subsequent decisions so clarifying the
    force requirement does not deprive Mr. Muskett of his due process right to have fair
    notice of what the law proscribes.
    III.   CONCLUSION
    Because Mr. Muskett’s predicate offense of assault with a dangerous weapon
    categorically requires the attempted or threatened use of physical force, and further
    because Mr. Muskett had sufficient notice that brandishing a firearm in furtherance of
    that offense could run afoul of § 924(c), we affirm the district court’s denial of his § 2255
    motion.
    25
    United States v. Donovan Muskett, No. 17-2123
    BACHARACH, J., dissenting.
    We must ordinarily evaluate harmlessness under current law, United
    States v. Lewis, 
    904 F.3d 867
    , 872 (10th Cir. 2018), and our current law
    includes United States v. Ontiveros, 
    875 F.3d 533
     (10th Cir. 2017). Under
    Ontiveros, Mr. Muskett’s predicate offense (assault with a dangerous
    weapon) would constitute a crime of violence under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3)(A). But when Mr. Muskett committed the predicate offense,
    our case law prohibited us from considering assault with a dangerous
    weapon as a crime of violence under 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3)(A). We toppled
    that case law in Ontiveros. Because Mr. Muskett couldn’t have foreseen
    that change in our case law, retroactive application of Ontiveros would
    violate Mr. Muskett’s right to due process. I thus respectfully dissent.
    I.    The right to due process prevents retroactive application of
    changes in the law without fair warning to the defendant.
    The Constitution prohibits Ex Post Facto laws, which stiffen the
    punishment beyond what the law provided when the crime was committed.
    U.S. Const. art. I § 9, cl. 3; Peugh v. United States, 
    569 U.S. 530
    , 532–33
    (2013). Although this prohibition does not apply to the judiciary, the Fifth
    Amendment’s right to due process does. This right entitles defendants to
    “fair warning . . . of what the law intends to do if a certain line is passed.”
    United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 265 (1997) (quoting McBoyle v.
    United States, 
    283 U.S. 25
    , 27 (1931)). Fair warning exists only if
    defendants could reasonably foresee the legal consequences of their
    conduct. 
    Id.
     at 270–71. To assess foreseeability, we consider whether a
    judicial decision was “unexpected and indefensible by reference to the law
    which had been expressed prior to the conduct.” Bouie v. City of Columbia,
    
    378 U.S. 347
    , 354 (1964) (quoting Jerome Hall, General Principles of
    Criminal Law 58–59 (2d ed. 1960)).
    Certain types of judicial decisions may be considered “unexpected
    and indefensible.” An example is a judicial decision that expansively
    interprets a narrow, precise statute. That decision could be unexpected and
    indefensible if the narrow statutory terms could have lulled potential
    defendants “into a false sense of security.” 
    Id. at 352
    . Judicial decisions
    can also be unexpected and indefensible when they overrule a precedent.
    See Marks v. United States, 
    430 U.S. 188
    , 195 (1977) (holding that a new
    Supreme Court opinion overturning a previous standard was
    unforeseeable); Lopez v. McCotter, 
    875 F.2d 273
    , 277–78 (10th Cir. 1989)
    (holding that a New Mexico court’s decision to eliminate the bail
    bondsman’s privilege was unforeseeable when the circumstances would not
    have foreshadowed a change in the law).
    II.   We torpedoed our precedent after Mr. Muskett had committed his
    predicate offense.
    When Mr. Muskett committed his offense in 2013, our precedent
    unequivocally prevented us from categorically treating assault with a
    2
    dangerous weapon as a crime of violence. See United States v. Perez–
    Vargas, 
    414 F.3d 1282
    , 1286–87 (10th Cir. 2005).
    To categorically qualify as a crime of violence, an offense must
    include as an element the use, threatened use, or attempted use of physical
    force. 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (c)(3)(A). We considered a similar definition in
    United States v. Perez–Vargas, 
    414 F.3d 1282
     (10th Cir. 2005). There we
    concluded that an offense constituted a crime of violence only if the
    conduct necessarily involved the direct use of physical force. 
    414 F.3d at
    1286–87. We applied this conclusion to determine that Colorado’s offense
    of third-degree assault wasn’t a crime of violence, reasoning that the
    offense could be complete even if the force had only been indirect. 
    Id.
    Based on this reasoning, we later held in United States v. Rodriguez–
    Enriquez that Colorado’s offense of second-degree assault (drugging a
    victim) wasn’t categorically classified as a crime of violence. 
    518 F.3d 1191
    , 1194–95 (10th Cir. 2008).
    Unlike our court, the Supreme Court had not yet addressed whether a
    crime of violence needed to involve the direct use of physical force. But
    the Court had considered the definition of “physical force” in Johnson v.
    United States, addressing the meaning of the term “violent felony.” 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 140 (2010). There the Court held that the physical force must be
    capable of causing physical pain or injury. 
    Id.
    3
    After Mr. Muskett committed his offense, our governing precedents
    began to unravel, starting with United States v. Castleman, 
    572 U.S. 157
    (2014). There the Supreme Court considered the definition of physical
    force in the context of misdemeanor crimes of domestic violence. In this
    context, the Court used the common-law definition of “physical force”
    rather than the narrower definition in Johnson. 572 U.S. at 163–65. Using
    the broader common-law definition, the Court concluded that intentionally
    or knowingly causing injury to a household member constituted a
    misdemeanor crime of domestic violence because this crime necessarily
    involved the use of common-law force. Id. at 169. But the Court expressly
    declined to decide whether the intentional or knowing causation of bodily
    injury necessarily involved the use of “physical force” as this term was
    defined in Johnson. Id. at 167.
    Following Castleman, we recognized in United States v. Ontiveros
    that Perez–Vargas had been overruled. 
    875 F.3d 533
    , 536 (10th Cir. 2017).
    In Ontiveros, we considered whether Colorado’s offense of second-degree
    assault was a crime of violence. 875 F.3d at 535–36. In deciding that issue,
    we held that Perez–Vargas was no longer good law. We noted that
    Castleman had concluded that a defendant’s intentional or knowing
    causation of bodily injury necessarily involved common-law force. Id. at
    536. Although Castleman hadn’t decided whether intentional or knowing
    causation of bodily injury involved physical force under the Johnson test,
    4
    we relied in Ontiveros on the combination of reasoning in Johnson and
    Castleman. Id. at 538.
    III.   Applying Ontiveros denies due process to Mr. Muskett because
    Ontiveros was unforeseeable when Mr. Muskett committed his
    offense.
    Mr. Muskett argues that applying Ontiveros to his case would violate
    the right to due process because he couldn’t have foreseen the subsequent
    sea change in our precedent when he committed his offense. I agree. 1
    The government contends that Mr. Muskett could have anticipated
    the change based on two circumstances:
    1.   the Supreme Court’s opinion in Johnson and
    2.   the existence of a circuit split.
    But neither circumstance made the change foreseeable.
    1
    The majority concludes that
    •    applying Ontiveros to Mr. Muskett’s offense would not violate
    due process because the statute was ambiguous (unlike the
    narrow and precise statute at issue in Bouie) and
    •    judicial opinions had commented on the ambiguity.
    Majority Op. at 16–17. But a judicial opinion expansively interpreting a
    narrow and precise statute is just one example of a potentially
    unforeseeable change in the law; another example is a court’s decision to
    overrule its own precedent. See Part I, above.
    5
    The government points to the Supreme Court’s opinion in Johnson,
    which preceded Mr. Muskett’s offense. In the government’s view, Johnson
    foreshadowed the eventual overruling of Perez–Vargas. 2
    Agreeing with the government, the majority relies on one sentence
    from Johnson, which stated that physical force is “force exerted by and
    through concrete bodies” rather than “intellectual force or emotional
    force.” Majority Op. at 17 (quoting Johnson v. United States, 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 138 (2010)). The majority concludes that this sentence rejected our
    previous opinion, United States v. Rodriguez–Enriquez, where we had said
    that it “seems highly unlikely” that the adjective “physical” “is being used
    to distinguish the described force from a force generated by emotion,
    psychology, religion, or rhetoric.” 
    518 F.3d 1191
    , 1194 (10th Cir. 2008).
    According to the majority, the conflict between Johnson and
    Rodriguez–Enriquez should have alerted Mr. Muskett to the possibility that
    Perez–Vargas might eventually be overruled. Majority Op. at 18–19. But in
    the absence of 20–20 hindsight, no one in Mr. Muskett’s position could
    have anticipated a possible overruling of Perez–Vargas.
    2
    The government also argues that Mr. Muskett obtained fair warning
    under the residual clause. But the Supreme Court held that the residual
    clause was unconstitutionally vague, and vague laws don’t provide fair
    warning. United States v. Davis, 
    139 S. Ct. 2319
    , 2325, 2336 (2019); see
    also United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 266 (1997) (stating that the
    vagueness doctrine is a manifestation of the “fair warning requirement”).
    So the residual clause could not have provided Mr. Muskett with fair
    warning.
    6
    The majority elevates the importance of our “interpretation of the
    adjective ‘physical’ in Rodriguez-Enriquez.” Majority Op. at 19. In my
    view, the cited language was immaterial to the holding in Rodriguez-
    Enriquez. There the question was whether Colorado’s offense of second-
    degree assault necessarily involved physical force, as required for a crime
    of violence. United States v. Rodriguez–Enriquez, 
    518 F.3d 1191
    , 1194–95
    (10th Cir. 2008). Because Colorado’s offense of second-degree assault
    could consist of surreptitiously drugging a victim, the panel had to decide
    whether “physical force” could include chemical force (a type of indirect
    physical force). 
    Id.
     So the panel didn’t need to decide whether the
    adjective “physical” distinguished physical force from force through
    emotion, psychology, religion, or rhetoric. 
    Id. at 1194
    .
    In Johnson, too, the issue had nothing to do with whether the
    adjective “physical” distinguished physical force from force generated
    through emotion, psychology, religion, or rhetoric. 
    559 U.S. at
    138–39.
    The issue there was whether “physical force” could consist of a slight
    touching, which would constitute physical force under the common-law
    definition. 
    Id. at 139
    . So the Supreme Court had to decide between the
    common-law definition of “physical force” and a narrower meaning. 
    Id. at 140
    .
    The holdings in Rodriguez–Enriquez and Johnson didn’t address
    whether the adjective “physical” would distinguish physical force from
    7
    force generated through emotion, psychology, religion, or rhetoric. So it’s
    hard to imagine how even a sophisticated legal scholar could have
    predicted the overruling of Rodriguez–Enriquez from the single line in
    Johnson.
    But let’s assume, for the sake of argument, that Mr. Muskett should
    have interpreted Johnson to foreshadow the eventual rejection of a
    sentence in Rodriguez–Enriquez about the likely meaning of the adjective
    “physical.” Even then, Johnson said nothing to suggest the overruling of
    Perez–Vargas or its holding that third-degree assault wasn’t a crime of
    violence.
    Indeed, Johnson might have given Mr. Muskett greater comfort that
    his offense was not categorically a crime of violence. Johnson had
    narrowly defined physical force, requiring that physical force be capable of
    causing physical pain or injury. Johnson v. United States, 
    559 U.S. 133
    ,
    140 (2010). Based on the Court’s choice of this definition over the broader
    common-law definition, Mr. Muskett could have reasonably believed that
    the Supreme Court was narrowing the definition of physical force. In fact,
    the Supreme Court concluded in Johnson that an offense of simple battery
    didn’t necessarily involve the use of physical force, so that offense wasn’t
    a crime of violence. 
    Id. at 145
    .
    In the aftermath of Johnson, other courts didn’t treat the opinion as a
    rejection of the distinction between direct and indirect uses of force. To
    8
    the contrary, courts continued to distinguish between the direct and
    indirect uses of force. See United States v. Torres–Miguel, 
    701 F.3d 165
    ,
    168–69 (4th Cir. 2012) (concluding that for a state offense to constitute a
    crime of violence, the offense must require the “use or threatened use of
    violent force” rather than “simply result in physical injury or death”); 3
    United States v. Andino–Ortega, 
    608 F.3d 305
    , 311 (5th Cir. 2010) (stating
    that Texas’s offense of injury to a child could be committed “without the
    use of physical force by putting poison or another harmful substance in a
    child’s food or drink”); 4 United States v. Castleman, No. 2:08-cr-20420-
    JPM-cgc, 
    2010 WL 11519878
    , at *3 (W.D. Tenn. Apr. 30, 2010)
    (unpublished) (holding that offenses under Tennessee’s domestic-assault
    statute did not constitute crimes of violence because the offenses could be
    committed by “deceiving [the victim] into drinking a poisoned beverage”).
    Given the continuing distinction between direct and indirect force, Mr.
    Muskett would have needed extraordinary prescience to foresee Johnson’s
    impact on Perez–Vargas. See Devine v. N.M. Dep’t of Corr., 
    866 F.2d 339
    ,
    345 (10th Cir. 1989) (concluding that a judicial decision was unforeseeable
    3
    The Fourth Circuit later recognized that Torres–Miguel had been
    abrogated by Castleman. United States v. Allred, 
    942 F.3d 641
    , 653 (4th
    Cir. 2019).
    4
    The Fifth Circuit overruled this part of the opinion after the Supreme
    Court’s decision in Castleman. United States v. Reyes–Contreras, 
    910 F.3d 169
    , 182 n.27 (5th Cir. 2018) (en banc).
    9
    when “[e]ven an in-depth inquiry by a dedicated and educated student of
    . . . law would have revealed nothing to foreshadow the . . . opinion”).
    Even after Castleman, Johnson’s impact on our opinion in Perez–
    Vargas was not entirely clear. Castleman concluded that indirect assaults,
    such as poisoning a victim, would involve physical force. See Part II,
    above. But Castleman reached this conclusion by relying heavily on the
    common-law definition of physical force. See United States v. Castleman,
    
    572 U.S. 157
    , 170 (2014) (explaining that “the common-law concept of
    ‘force’ encompasses even its indirect application”); see also Part II, above.
    And Castleman expressly refrained from deciding whether indirect assaults
    would meet Johnson’s elevated standard for physical force. 572 U.S. at
    167. By refraining from a decision on this issue, the Castleman Court
    declined to say whether Johnson’s requirement of physical force could be
    satisfied when the force is indirect. And, of course, Mr. Muskett had
    committed his offense before the Supreme Court decided Castleman. So
    Mr. Muskett would have needed uncanny legal expertise and foresight to
    anticipate the eventual unravelling of Perez–Vargas based on the Supreme
    Court’s opinion in Johnson.
    The government also argues that Ontiveros was foreseeable based on
    a supposed circuit split at the time of Mr. Muskett’s offense. The majority
    agrees, holding that any circuit split on the scope of a criminal statute
    would provide notice that the court might broaden its interpretation of
    10
    crimes of violence. Majority Op. at 19-20. I respectfully disagree for two
    reasons:
    1.    The existence of a circuit split wouldn’t have provided fair
    warning because our precedent in 2013 had clearly prevented
    categorical treatment of Mr. Muskett’s offense as a crime of
    violence.
    2.    No circuit split existed in 2013.
    In holding that a circuit split can provide fair warning, the majority
    relies on an isolated sentence from a 1984 Supreme Court opinion, United
    States v. Rodgers, 
    466 U.S. 475
     (1984). In Rodgers, the Supreme Court
    overruled an Eighth Circuit opinion that would have prevented criminal
    liability, choosing instead to adopt a broader construction. 
    466 U.S. at
    478–79. In a single sentence, the Court commented: “[A]ny argument by
    respondent against retroactive application to him of our present decision
    . . . would be unavailing since the existence of conflicting cases from other
    Courts of Appeals made review of that issue by this Court and decision
    against the position of the respondent reasonably foreseeable.” 
    Id. at 484
    .
    The majority interprets this sentence to mean that a circuit split
    always provides fair warning. But this interpretation disregards the
    context. Rodgers didn’t even mention the right to due process or the fair-
    warning test, and the Supreme Court has never cited Rodgers for a holding
    on due process.
    11
    To the contrary, the Supreme Court later clarified that a circuit split
    is simply one consideration bearing on the existence of fair warning and is
    not dispositive on its own. See United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 269
    (1997) (explaining that “disparate decisions in various Circuits might leave
    the law insufficiently certain . . . [but] such a circumstance may be taken
    into account in deciding whether the warning is fair enough”). And the
    Supreme Court has noted that a defendant need not stay apprised of legal
    developments in other jurisdictions. See Rogers v. Tennessee, 
    532 U.S. 451
    , 464 (2001) (“Due process, of course, does not require a person to
    apprise himself of the common law of all 50 States in order to guarantee
    that his actions will not subject him to punishment in light of a developing
    trend in the law that has not yet made its way to his State.”). If Mr.
    Muskett didn’t need to stay apprised of developments in other
    jurisdictions, why couldn’t he rely with confidence on our precedential
    opinion in Perez–Vargas?
    After all, even when the conduct involves only civil liability, the
    defendant can rely on our precedent irrespective of contrary case law in
    other jurisdictions. See Trevor W. Morrison, Fair Warning and the
    Retroactive Judicial Expansion of Federal Criminal Statutes, 
    74 S. Cal. L. Rev. 455
    , 487 (2001) (“[N]either the Supreme Court nor any federal court
    of appeals has ever held that liability may attach where settled in-circuit
    12
    precedent clearly holds the conduct in question to be lawful.”). 5 Although a
    circuit split could spur Supreme Court review, no court has ever questioned
    the ability of defendants to rely on their own in-circuit precedent. See 
    id. at 488
     (“[I]t seems clear that in cases where in-circuit precedent squarely
    supports the defendant by holding his conduct to be lawful, the defendant
    will always enjoy immunity without regard to the law in other circuits.”).
    If a public official can’t incur civil liability despite the possibility
    that the Supreme Court could overrule our precedent, how could a court
    subject a criminal defendant to harsher punishment based on changes in the
    law after he’d already committed his crime? “If the defendant’s reasonable
    belief that his conduct was lawful is adequate to immunize him from civil
    suit, it would be anomalous at best nevertheless to subject him to criminal
    prosecution for the same conduct.” Seth P. Waxman & Trevor W.
    Morrison, What Kind of Immunity? Federal Officers, State Criminal Law,
    and the Supremacy Clause, 
    112 Yale L.J. 2195
    , 2213 (2003).
    5
    The majority questions my reliance on Dean Morrison’s article
    because our task is to apply governing law rather than opine on what the
    governing law should be. Majority Op. at 20 n.11. I too am focusing on
    what the law is, not what it should be. In my view, the existing law does
    not incongruously permit criminal liability for acting legally under circuit
    precedent when conformity to circuit precedent couldn’t even trigger civil
    liability. See United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 270–71 (1997); see
    p. 14, below.
    13
    Recognizing this potential anomaly, the Supreme Court has
    highlighted the similarity in the tests for civil and criminal liability:
    In the civil sphere, we have explained that qualified
    immunity seeks to ensure that defendants “reasonably can
    anticipate when their conduct may give rise to liability,” by
    attaching liability only if “[t]he contours of the right [violated
    are] sufficiently clear that a reasonable official would
    understand that what he is doing violates that right.” So
    conceived, the object of the “clearly established” immunity
    standard is not different from that of “fair warning” . . . . The
    fact that one has a civil and the other a criminal law role is of no
    significance; both serve the same objective, and in effect the
    qualified immunity test is simply the adaptation of the fair
    warning standard to give officials (and, ultimately, governments)
    the same protection from civil liability and its consequences that
    individuals have traditionally possessed in the face of vague
    criminal statutes. To require something clearer than “clearly
    established” would, then, call for something beyond “fair
    warning.”
    United States v. Lanier, 
    520 U.S. 259
    , 270–71 (1997) (citations omitted).
    Given the similarity in the tests for civil and criminal liability, the
    Supreme Court has recognized the central role of our precedent in guiding
    the behavior of not only civil defendants but also criminal defendants. For
    example, in Marks v. United States, the Court held that the right to due
    process prevents retroactive application of a new Supreme Court opinion
    that departs significantly from a prior Supreme Court pronouncement. 
    430 U.S. 188
    , 194–97 (1977).
    Marks addressed retroactive application of a case that had overruled
    an opinion by the Supreme Court rather than our court. 
    Id.
     But we have
    interpreted Marks more broadly, stating that “Marks held that a court
    14
    overruling its own precedent is unforeseeable for due process purposes.”
    Devine v. N.M. Dep’t of Corr., 
    866 F.2d 339
    , 345 (10th Cir. 1989). Based
    on this interpretation of Marks, we have held that the right to due process
    prohibited retroactive application of a state-court decision issued after the
    defendant had committed his crime. Lopez v. McCotter, 
    875 F.2d 273
    , 277–
    78 (10th Cir. 1989).
    This holding prevents retroactive application here, for “the existence
    of settled in-circuit precedent holding a defendant’s conduct to be lawful
    would appear to mean it was not ‘reasonably clear’ that his conduct was
    unlawful when undertaken.” Trevor W. Morrison, Fair Warning and the
    Retroactive Judicial Expansion of Federal Criminal Statutes, 
    74 S. Cal. L. Rev. 455
    , 457 (2001). So the existence of settled in-circuit precedent
    prevented fair warning to Mr. Muskett from the eventual thrashing of our
    precedent.
    But even if Mr. Muskett could have obtained fair warning from a
    circuit split, none existed in 2013. Three other circuits had held, as we
    had, that crimes of violence required the direct use of physical force. See
    Chrzanoski v. Ashcroft, 
    327 F.3d 188
    , 195–96 (2d Cir. 2003); United States
    v. Torres–Miguel, 
    701 F.3d 165
    , 168–69 (4th Cir. 2012); United States v.
    Villegas–Hernandez, 
    468 F.3d 874
    , 879 (5th Cir. 2006).
    15
    The government contends that the Ninth Circuit had created a circuit
    split prior to 2013. I disagree. The Ninth Circuit’s opinions contradicted
    each other, offering no binding precedent that could create a circuit split.
    In 2003, the Ninth Circuit held that mailing anthrax was a crime of
    violence. United States v. De La Fuente, 
    353 F.3d 766
    , 771 (9th Cir. 2003).
    Rejecting the defendant’s suggestion that mailing anthrax did not involve
    the use of physical force, the court explained that “[a]nthrax is a physical
    substance that causes injury to the human body, and [the defendant’s]
    letters clearly threatened death by way of physical contact with anthrax
    spores.” 
    Id.
    But roughly four years later, the Ninth Circuit concluded that a crime
    of violence hadn’t taken place because offenders could commit second-
    degree sexual abuse without directly using any physical force. United
    States v. Beltran–Munguia, 
    489 F.3d 1042
    , 1046 (9th Cir. 2007). For
    example, a perpetrator could commit the offense by surreptitiously
    drugging the victim, rendering her unable to consent. 
    Id.
     This conclusion
    contradicted the court’s earlier conclusion on whether chemical force could
    constitute physical force. Compare De La Fuente, 
    353 F.3d at 771
     (holding
    that poisoning a victim was a crime of violence), with Beltran–Munguia,
    
    489 F.3d at 1046
     (holding that drugging a victim was not a crime of
    violence).
    16
    About two years later, the Ninth Circuit decided United States v.
    Juvenile Female, holding that assault involving a deadly or dangerous
    weapon or resulting in bodily injury was a crime of violence. 
    566 F.3d 943
    ,
    947 (9th Cir. 2009). According to the majority, Juvenile Female “rejected
    the argument we accepted in Perez-Vargas.” Majority Op. at 21. I
    respectfully disagree. Unlike Perez-Vargas, Juvenile Female never
    discusses whether crimes of violence require the direct use of force. 6 In the
    absence of any discussion, the Ninth Circuit’s internal division remained.
    See United States v. Corrales–Vazquez, 
    931 F.3d 944
    , 954 (9th Cir. 2019)
    (“[C]ases are not precedential for propositions not considered or for
    questions which merely lurk in the record.” (internal quotation marks and
    citations omitted)).
    The Ninth Circuit thus had an intra-circuit conflict. Under Ninth
    Circuit precedent, an intra-circuit conflict can be resolved only through an
    en banc proceeding. Atonio v. Wards Cove Packing Co., 
    810 F.2d 1477
    ,
    1478–79 (9th Cir. 1987) (en banc). Until the court convenes en banc,
    however, the law in the Ninth Circuit remains unsettled:
    6
    In Juvenile Female, neither party argued that crimes of violence
    require the direct use of force. See Br. for Appellant, United States v.
    Juvenile Female, 
    566 F.3d 943
     (9th Cir. 2009) (No. 07-50549); Br. for
    Appellee, United States v. Juvenile Female, 
    566 F.3d 943
     (9th Cir. 2009)
    (No. 07-50549). It is thus unsurprising that the court did not address this
    issue. See United States v. Sainz, 
    933 F.3d 1080
    , 1087 (9th Cir. 2019)
    (explaining that courts “normally decide only questions presented by the
    parties”) (quoting Greenlaw v. United States, 
    554 U.S. 237
    , 244 (2008)).
    17
    An intra-circuit conflict can only be resolved by the court en
    banc. Until the en banc court is able to address the issue, we
    must make the unsatisfactory choice between two opposing lines
    of authority, neither of which has an unimpaired claim to being
    the law of the circuit.
    Greenhow v. Sec’y of Health & Human Servs., 
    863 F.2d 633
    , 636 (9th Cir.
    1988) (citations omitted), overruled in part on other grounds by United
    States v. Hardesty, 
    977 F.2d 1347
    , 1348 (9th Cir. 1992) (en banc) (per
    curiam). 7 So the Ninth Circuit had no binding precedent conflicting with
    Perez–Vargas when Mr. Muskett committed his offense.
    * * *
    In summary, neither a circuit split nor the Supreme Court’s opinion
    in Johnson provided fair warning to Mr. Muskett that his prior offense
    could constitute a crime of violence. So applying Ontiveros would violate
    Mr. Muskett’s right to due process.
    IV.   Conclusion
    Based on our governing precedent at the time of the predicate offense
    (Perez–Vargas), we cannot retroactively apply Ontiveros without violating
    Mr. Muskett’s right to due process. I would thus apply Perez–Vargas.
    7
    The Ninth Circuit’s rule here differs from most circuits’ rules, which
    require adherence to the earlier opinion in an intra-circuit conflict. See
    McMellon v. United States, 
    387 F.3d 329
    , 333 (4th Cir. 2004) (collecting
    cases from circuits that require adherence to the earlier of two conflicting
    panel opinions).
    18
    Under Perez–Vargas, Mr. Muskett’s offense of assault with a dangerous
    weapon is not a crime of violence.
    19