United States v. Jesus Rosales-Bruno ( 2015 )


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  •                Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015      Page: 1 of 90
    [PUBLISH]
    IN THE UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE ELEVENTH CIRCUIT
    ________________________
    No. 12-15089
    ________________________
    D.C. Docket No. 2:11-cr-14016-KMM-1
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    versus
    JESUS ROSALES-BRUNO,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    ________________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Southern District of Florida
    ________________________
    (June 19, 2015)
    Before ED CARNES, Chief Judge, WILSON, Circuit Judge, and CORRIGAN, *
    District Judge.
    ED CARNES, Chief Judge:
    *
    Honorable Timothy J. Corrigan, United States District Judge for the Middle District of
    Florida, sitting by designation.
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    This is the second appeal to come before us involving a sentence imposed on
    Jesus Rosales-Bruno because of his conviction for illegally reentering the United
    States in violation of 8 U.S.C. § 1326. In the first appeal we vacated his original
    sentence after concluding the district court had erred in finding that his prior
    Florida conviction for false imprisonment qualified as a “crime of violence”
    conviction for enhancement purposes under United States Sentencing Guidelines
    § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii). United States v. Rosales-Bruno, 
    676 F.3d 1017
    , 1024 (11th
    Cir. 2012) (Rosales-Bruno I). That error had increased Rosales-Bruno’s advisory
    sentencing guidelines range to 70 to 87 months, and the district court had
    sentenced him to 87 months imprisonment.
    On remand, the district court recalculated Rosales-Bruno’s advisory
    guidelines range without the crime of violence enhancement, which lowered it to
    21 to 27 months imprisonment. After considering the sentencing factors in 18
    U.S.C. § 3553(a), however, the court varied upward from the guidelines range,
    again imposing an 87-month prison term. That sentence was 60 months above the
    high end of Rosales-Bruno’s revised guidelines range but 33 months below the
    statutory maximum of 120 months imprisonment. The sole issue in this appeal is
    whether that sentence is substantively unreasonable.
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    I.
    On August 4, 2007, Rosales-Bruno attacked his girlfriend, Edith Rodriguez.
    He shoved her into a stove, and when she tried to leave he punched her in the back
    and caused her to fall. When she fell he grabbed her by the face and pinned her
    between two beds. He then took out a cigarette lighter and threatened to burn her
    with it. Rosales-Bruno was arrested for that violent conduct.
    Two months later, in October 2007, while he was out on bond, Rosales-
    Bruno attacked Rodriguez again. After pulling their 18-month-old daughter out of
    her arms, he punched Rodriguez at least five times and forced her into his car. She
    struggled and managed to escape, but Rosales-Bruno chased her down, threatened
    to kill her, grabbed her by the hair, pulled some of it out, and started choking her
    with his arm. When employees at a nearby business heard Rodriguez’s screams
    for help, Rosales-Bruno released Rodriguez but took the little girl with him when
    he fled from the scene.
    In November 2007, an Indian River County, Florida court convicted
    Rosales-Bruno of assault and battery for the first attack on Rodriguez, sentencing
    him to fifteen days in jail and a year of probation. While awaiting trial for
    battering Rodriguez the second time, Rosales-Bruno failed to report to his
    probation officer, didn’t complete required domestic-violence programs, and didn’t
    pay probation fees. As a result, in April 2008, the court issued an arrest warrant
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    for his violation of probation. Possibly because Rosales-Bruno’s trial for charges
    arising from the second attack was scheduled for later in the month, that arrest
    warrant was not immediately served. Rosales-Bruno was convicted of battery and
    false imprisonment for the second attack. The court sentenced him to six months
    in jail and three years of probation. A month later, a United States Immigration
    Judge ordered that Rosales-Bruno, a Mexican national, be removed to Mexico, and
    he was deported on May 17, 2008.
    Sometime in 2010, Rosales-Bruno crossed the border back into the United
    States in Arizona and then made his way back to Florida. In March 2011, he was
    arrested for violating probation on the April 2008 warrant. While he was in
    custody, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents found that Rosales-Bruno
    was illegally in the United States after having been deported. As a result, he was
    indicted on one count of illegal reentry following deportation, in violation of 8
    U.S.C. § 1326, the applicable penalty provision of which carried a statutory
    maximum sentence of 120 months. See 8 U.S.C. § 1326(b)(1). He pleaded guilty
    to that charge.
    At his first sentencing for his illegal reentry conviction, Rosales-Bruno’s
    presentence investigation report calculated his guidelines range as 70 to 87 months
    imprisonment. That range resulted in part from a 16-level enhancement of
    Rosales-Bruno’s base offense level under U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) based on
    4
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    the PSR’s characterization of his 2008 Florida conviction for false imprisonment as
    a conviction for a “crime of violence.” Rosales-Bruno objected to that
    enhancement, contending that a false imprisonment conviction was not
    categorically a crime of violence within the meaning of that enhancement. He had
    also pleaded guilty to battery in connection with the same incident that led to the
    conviction for false imprisonment but, as we noted in our earlier opinion, battery
    under Florida law is not categorically a crime of violence either. See Rosales-
    Bruno 
    I, 676 F.3d at 1024
    (citing Johnson v. United States, 
    559 U.S. 133
    , 138–44,
    
    130 S. Ct. 1265
    , 1270–73 (2010)). The district court properly did not consider the
    battery conviction as a crime of violence for purposes of the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii)
    enhancement.
    At that first sentence hearing, Rosales-Bruno also objected to the facts
    alleged in ¶ 30 of the PSR, which were taken from the police report filed in
    connection with his arrest for the crimes of false imprisonment and battery. He
    asserted that the police report was hearsay and that it was an inaccurate account of
    the events leading up to his arrest. His hearsay objection challenged only the
    court’s use of the police report’s facts “for the purpose of determining whether the
    [false imprisonment] conviction [was] a crime of violence.” Although he asserted
    that the report was not an accurate recitation of events, he conceded that the district
    court could consider the police report “for the purpose of the sentencing” except on
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    the issue of whether the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) crime of violence enhancement
    applied. Specifically, he said: “[I]t depends on what the Court is considering. The
    Court could review [the police report] for the purpose of the sentencing, but not for
    the purpose of determining whether the predicate conviction is a crime of
    violence.” The district court overruled Rosales-Bruno’s objections and sentenced
    him to 87 months imprisonment, the top of his guidelines range. He appealed that
    sentence, challenging the crime of violence enhancement he had received for his
    false imprisonment conviction.
    We agreed with Rosales-Bruno’s contention that false imprisonment under
    Florida law is not categorically a crime of violence. See Rosales-Bruno 
    I, 676 F.3d at 1022
    . We also decided that the record did not establish that Rosales-Bruno’s
    2008 Florida false imprisonment conviction had been under a statutory alternative
    that qualifies as a crime of violence for purposes of § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii). 
    Id. at 1023–24.
    For that reason, we vacated the sentence and remanded the case to the
    district court for resentencing without the crime of violence enhancement.
    Although we directed the court to consider the record and resentence Rosales-
    Bruno “in light of the 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) factors,” we “express[ed] no
    opinion . . . as to what sentence would now be appropriate.” 
    Id. at 1024.
    We did
    not rule out the court reimposing the same sentence on remand so long as it was
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    not based on treating Rosales-Bruno’s false imprisonment conviction as a crime of
    violence under § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii).
    Before Rosales-Bruno was resentenced, the probation office amended the
    PSR and recalculated his guidelines range without the 16-level crime of violence
    enhancement. The result was a range of 21 to 27 months. Even so, the district
    court imposed the same sentence as before, relying on the § 3553(a) factors to vary
    above the new guidelines range by 60 months. The court did so after conducting a
    full resentence hearing, during which it pointed to several factors supporting the
    upward variance under § 3553: (1) the history and characteristics of the defendant,
    (2) the need to promote respect for the law, (3) the need to provide adequate
    deterrence, (4) the nature and circumstances of the present offense, and (5) the
    need to protect the public. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(1), (a)(2)(A)–(C).
    In determining that an 87-month sentence was appropriate, the district court
    placed particular emphasis on Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history. At the resentence
    hearing, the court read for the record the PSR’s descriptions of several of Rosales-
    Bruno’s prior convictions. Those descriptions detailed the crimes that led to his
    2007 convictions for assault and battery and his 2008 convictions for false
    imprisonment and battery. Finally, the court read the PSR’s list of Rosales-
    Bruno’s 11 driving offense convictions, which included several DUI convictions.
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    Rosales-Bruno objected that the sentence was procedurally and substantively
    unreasonable.1 He contended that the court had placed “too much emphasis” on
    his prior convictions for false imprisonment, for assault, and for battery. This is
    his appeal of the sentence imposed on remand.
    II.
    The district court’s task is to impose a sentence that will adequately
    (1) “reflect the seriousness of the offense,” (2) “promote respect for the law,”
    (3) “provide just punishment,” (4) “afford adequate deterrence,” (5) “protect the
    public from further crimes of the defendant,” and (6) provide the defendant with
    any needed training and treatment in the most effective manner. 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a)(2). The task is a holistic endeavor that requires the district court to
    consider a variety of factors: (1) the nature and circumstances of the offense,
    (2) the defendant’s history and characteristics, (3) the kinds of sentences available,
    (4) the applicable sentencing guidelines range, (5) pertinent policy statements of
    the Sentencing Commission, (5) the need to provide restitution to any victims, and
    (6) the need to avoid unwarranted sentencing disparities. 
    Id. § 3553(a).
    1
    Whatever his procedural objections were, Rosales-Bruno has abandoned them by not
    raising them on appeal. See Sapuppo v. Allstate Floridian Ins. Co., 
    739 F.3d 678
    , 680 (11th Cir.
    2014) (issues not briefed on appeal are abandoned); Access Now, Inc. v. Sw. Airlines Co., 
    385 F.3d 1324
    , 1330 (11th Cir. 2004) (“Any issue that an appellant wants [us] to address should be
    specifically and clearly identified in the brief. . . . Otherwise, the issue — even if properly
    preserved at trial — will be considered abandoned.”) (quotation marks omitted). As a result,
    substantive reasonableness is the only issue in this appeal.
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    As the governing statute makes clear, 
    id., and as
    we have explained in an en
    banc opinion, the advisory guidelines range is but one of many considerations that
    a court must take into account in exercising its sentencing discretion. See United
    States v. Irey, 
    612 F.3d 1160
    , 1217 (11th Cir. 2010) (en banc). “We have not
    attempted to specify any particular weight that should be given to the guidelines
    range,” 
    id., and we
    have rejected “any across-the-board prescription regarding the
    appropriate deference to give the Guidelines.” United States v. Hunt, 
    459 F.3d 1180
    , 1184 (11th Cir. 2006). “We [have] decided instead that, subject to review
    for reasonableness, sentencing courts may determine, on a case-by-case basis, the
    weight to give the Guidelines, so long as that determination is made with reference
    to the remaining section 3553(a) factors that the court must also consider in
    calculating the defendant’s sentence.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1217
    (quotation marks
    omitted). The Supreme Court has held that variances from the advisory guidelines
    range can sometimes be based on the sentencing judge’s disagreement with
    whether a guideline properly reflects the § 3553(a) factors, a holding which
    indicates that the guidelines are not overly restrictive. See Kimbrough v. United
    States, 
    552 U.S. 85
    , 105–09, 
    128 S. Ct. 558
    , 572–75 (2007).
    To arrive at an appropriate sentence, the district court must consider all of
    the applicable § 3553(a) factors. United States v. Shaw, 
    560 F.3d 1230
    , 1237 (11th
    Cir. 2009). That does not mean, however, that it must give all of the § 3553(a)
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    factors equal weight. Instead, the sentencing court “is permitted to attach ‘great
    weight’ to one factor over others.” 
    Id. (quoting Gall
    v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    ,
    57, 
    128 S. Ct. 586
    , 600 (2007)). The decision about how much weight to assign a
    particular sentencing factor is “committed to the sound discretion of the district
    court.” United States v. Williams, 
    526 F.3d 1312
    , 1322 (11th Cir. 2008) (quotation
    marks omitted). And, importantly, “if the sentence is outside the Guidelines range,
    the [reviewing] court may not apply a presumption of unreasonableness.” 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597.
    The abuse of discretion standard is not de novo review; it is, instead,
    deferential. Because of that, when reviewing for an abuse of discretion we will
    sometimes “affirm the district court even though we would have gone the other
    way had it been our call.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1189
    (quotation marks omitted); see
    also, e.g., Ledford v. Peeples, 
    605 F.3d 871
    , 922 (11th Cir. 2010) (explaining that
    when reviewing for an abuse of discretion “the relevant question is not whether we
    would have come to the same decision if deciding the issue in the first instance,”
    but instead “whether the district court’s decision was tenable, or, we might say, ‘in
    the ballpark’ of permissible outcomes”). The Supreme Court has instructed us that
    when reviewing an out-of-guidelines sentence for reasonableness, we may:
    consider the extent of the deviation, but [we] must give due deference
    to the district court’s decision that the § 3553(a) factors, on a whole,
    justify the extent of the variance. The fact that the appellate court
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    might reasonably have concluded that a different sentence was
    appropriate is insufficient to justify reversal of the district court.
    
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597.
    The reason we give district courts so much discretion in making sentencing
    decisions is that they have great advantages over appellate courts when it comes to
    sentencing. One reason is that they do it and we don’t. Because the district court
    conducts sentence hearings, it is in a better position to make sentencing
    determinations than we are. See 
    id. As the
    Supreme Court has explained, “[t]he
    sentencing judge is in a superior position to find facts and judge their import under
    § 3553(a) in the individual case” because he “sees and hears the evidence, makes
    credibility determinations, has full knowledge of the facts and gains insights not
    conveyed by the record.” Id. at 
    51, 128 S. Ct. at 597
    (quotation marks omitted).
    Another advantage that district courts enjoy when it comes to sentencing is
    that they have far greater sentencing experience than appellate judges, many of
    whom have never sentenced a single defendant for a single crime. (At the time he
    resentenced Rosales-Bruno, the district court judge had twenty years federal
    sentencing experience.) On a related point, the Supreme Court has pointed out that
    district courts “see so many more Guidelines cases than appellate courts do.” 
    Id. at 52,
    128 S. Ct. at 598 (quotation marks omitted). Appellate courts see only the
    sentences that are appealed. District courts also see the ones that are not.
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    Given the great advantages that district courts enjoy when it comes to
    deciding the proper sentence, it would be strange if we didn’t review the
    substantive reasonableness of the sentences under a deferential abuse of discretion
    standard. See id. at 
    51, 128 S. Ct. at 597
    . Although the deference we afford
    district courts in this area is not unlimited, it is substantial. 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1191
    .
    We cannot –– because the Supreme Court has held that we must not –– presume
    that a sentence falling outside the advisory guidelines range is unreasonable. See
    
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597. If we did presume an out-of-guidelines-
    range sentence was unreasonable, the advisory guidelines would not be advisory.
    That the guidelines are in reality only advisory is made unmistakably clear by the
    fact that in the most recent year for which data is available more than half —
    54% — of the sentences imposed in federal court were outside the guidelines
    range. 2 If sentencing outside the advisory guidelines range made a sentence
    2
    See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2014,
    Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2015). According to the Sentencing Commission, of the 74,126 cases
    that were sentenced in the 2014 fiscal year, 1,645 (2.2%) resulted in sentences above the
    guidelines range. 
    Id. That total
    included 343 (0.5%) cases in which the sentence imposed
    involved a departure above the guidelines range; 1,104 (1.5%) that involved a variance above the
    guidelines range; 123 (0.2%) that involved both a departure and a variance above the guidelines
    range; and 75 (0.1%) in which the Sentencing Commission could not determine whether the
    above guidelines sentence resulted from a variance or a departure.
    In another 38,364 (51.8%) of the cases the sentence imposed was below the guidelines
    range. That number included 18,183 (24.5%) cases in which the court departed downward from
    the guidelines range; 12,894 (17.4%) cases in which the court varied downward from the
    guidelines range; 807 (1.1%) cases in which the report indicated both a departure and a variance
    downward from the guidelines range; 6,068 (8.2%) cases in which the government “sponsored” a
    below guidelines sentence that the Sentencing Commission did not classify as either a departure
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    substantively unreasonable, half of the sentences imposed in federal courts would
    be substantively unreasonable. 3
    In spite of the breadth of discretion they are given, district courts can and
    sometimes do abuse their discretion by imposing a sentence that is substantively
    unreasonable. Rita v. United States, 
    551 U.S. 338
    , 354, 
    127 S. Ct. 2456
    , 2466–67
    (2007) (“In sentencing, as in other areas, district judges at times make mistakes
    that are substantive. At times, they will impose sentences that are unreasonable.
    Circuit courts exist to correct such mistakes when they occur.”); see also 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1165
    (“We believe that the Supreme Court meant what it said in the Rita
    opinion and elsewhere about our duty to correct sentencing mistakes. At the same
    time, we recognize that our substantive review of sentences is deferential and that
    we only look to see if the district court abused its discretion by committing a clear
    error in judgment.”).
    A district court abuses its considerable discretion and imposes a
    substantively unreasonable sentence only when it “(1) fails to afford consideration
    to relevant factors that were due significant weight, (2) gives significant weight to
    or a variance; and 412 (0.6%) cases in which there was a sentence below the guidelines range but
    the Sentencing Commission could not determine whether it resulted from a variance or a
    departure. 
    Id. The total
    of all of these sentences that are above the guidelines range (1,645, or 2.2%)
    and below the guidelines range (38,364, or 51.8%) is 40,009 (54.0%). See 
    id. 3 See
    U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 
    n.2, supra
    .
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    an improper or irrelevant factor, or (3) commits a clear error of judgment in
    considering the proper factors.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1189
    (quotation marks omitted).
    Because that rarely happens, “it is only the rare sentence that will be substantively
    unreasonable.” United States v. McQueen, 
    727 F.3d 1144
    , 1156 (11th Cir. 2013).
    The party challenging a sentence has the burden of showing that the sentence is
    unreasonable in light of the entire record, the § 3553(a) factors, and the substantial
    deference afforded sentencing courts. United States v. Langston, 
    590 F.3d 1226
    ,
    1236 (11th Cir. 2009).
    III.
    The sentence the district court imposed in this case is not substantively
    unreasonable. The court followed the spirit and the letter of the Supreme Court’s
    and our precedent and obeyed the applicable statutory provisions when it
    considered all of the § 3553(a) factors at sentencing. In addition to weighing the
    corrected advisory guidelines range, the court also gave weight to several of the
    other relevant § 3553(a) factors, including: (1) the history and characteristics of
    the defendant, (2) the need to promote respect for the law, (3) the need to provide
    adequate deterrence, (4) the nature and circumstances of the crime, and (5) the
    need to protect the public. After considering all of the other relevant § 3553(a)
    factors, the district court was convinced that they outweighed the corrected
    advisory guidelines range, which did not adequately capture Rosales-Bruno’s
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    history and characteristics. It was for that reason the district court varied upward
    from the guidelines range.
    The variance of 60 months above the advisory guidelines range was a major
    one. But the Supreme Court has forbidden us from presuming that a sentence
    outside the guidelines range is unreasonable. 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at
    597. So, too, has it forbidden us from requiring “extraordinary circumstances to
    justify” such a sentence. 
    Id. at 47,
    128 S. Ct. at 595 (quotation marks omitted).
    The district court supported the 60-month variance with significant
    justifications, including the facts of Rosales-Bruno’s earlier violent crimes. The
    sentence the district court imposed was 33 months below the statutory maximum
    of 120 months, which is a consideration favoring its reasonableness. See 8 U.S.C.
    § 1326(b)(1); United States v. Gonzalez, 
    550 F.3d 1319
    , 1324 (11th Cir. 2009)
    (holding that a 50-month sentence for violating 8 U.S.C. § 1326(b)(1) was
    substantively reasonable in part because the sentence was well below the statutory
    maximum of 120 months imprisonment).
    The district court’s decision to vary upward from the corrected advisory
    guidelines range was within its substantial discretion. Regardless of whether we
    would have done the same thing if we had been the sentencer, the sentence was
    within the outer bounds of the district court’s substantial sentencing discretion —
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    “in the ballpark of permissible outcomes.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1189
    (quotation marks
    omitted).
    IV.
    Neither Rosales-Bruno nor the dissent has pointed to any precedent
    establishing that an 87-month sentence imposed for a crime like this one on a
    defendant with a criminal history materially identical to Rosales-Bruno’s is
    substantively unreasonable. The cases in which we have held sentences to be
    substantively unreasonable are materially different from this one. See infra at 42
    (citing the three decisions in which we have vacated upward variance sentences as
    unreasonable); App’x B (showing the twelve decisions in which we have vacated
    downward variance sentences as unreasonable).
    Rosales-Bruno’s position that his sentence is substantively unreasonable is
    based on three contentions. First, he contends that the district court gave
    “significant weight to an improper factor” by resentencing him as though he had a
    prior crime of violence conviction qualifying him for a § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii)
    enhancement despite our holding in Rosales-Bruno I that the enhancement did not
    apply. Second, he contends that the district court gave unreasonable weight to his
    criminal history, which he asserts is not extensive enough to support a variance 60
    months above the guidelines range. Third, he contends that the upward variance is
    unreasonable because his case does not fall outside the heartland of illegal reentry
    16
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    cases. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1182
    (explaining that a case falls “outside the
    heartland” when “there [is] something unusual, either about the defendant or the
    circumstances surrounding the crime,” that warrants a sentence outside of the
    guidelines range). None of those contentions is valid; none of them supports
    Rosales-Bruno’s position.
    A.
    Rosales-Bruno’s first contention is that the district court gave significant
    weight to an improper factor by resentencing him as though he still had a prior
    crime of violence conviction for purposes of U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii). This
    contention implicitly assumes that the district court had to impose a lower sentence
    at resentencing because the guidelines range, which is one of the § 3553(a) factors,
    had been lowered. The dissent makes that contention explicit, arguing that when
    the only change between initial sentencing and resentencing is a decrease in the
    advisory guidelines range, the district court must decrease the defendant’s
    sentence.4 The dissent thinks that is so because, in its view, anything else would
    demonstrate that the district court gave “no weight at all” to the advisory
    4
    The dissent says it has “little doubt that if the Guidelines had been correctly calculated
    the first time around, Rosales-Bruno would have been sentenced to 27 months.” Dissenting Op.
    at 57–58. There is nothing at all in the record to support that speculation — and it is a
    groundless guess that is contradicted by the district court’s careful explanation of why it varied
    upward on remand. The best evidence of what the court would have done the first time around
    with an advisory guidelines range of 21 to 27 months and the § 3553(a) factors that exist in this
    case is, after all, what it did with that very range and those very § 3553(a) factors on remand.
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    guidelines. Dissenting Op. at 58. In the dissent’s view, the evidence that the
    district court ignored the advisory guidelines range is so strong that by affirming
    the district court we are saying that “no evidence ever would be” enough to reverse
    a district court for failing to give enough weight to the advisory guidelines. 
    Id. at 60.
    No it isn’t, and no we aren’t.
    1.
    At resentencing, the district court was required to correct the error involving
    the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) enhancement, to calculate the guidelines range free of that
    error, and to consider that corrected range. It did so. The court was required to
    consider and weigh the other § 3553(a) sentencing factors as well. It did so. And
    the court was required to determine whether, in its judgment, those other
    sentencing factors outweighed the lower advisory guidelines range. It did so. In
    the judgment of the experienced district court judge, the other § 3553(a) factors,
    especially Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history and record of violence against his
    girlfriend, outweighed the advisory guidelines range of 21 to 27 months and the
    proper sentence was 87 months.
    The dissent’s position is that an advisory guidelines range becomes less
    advisory and more mandatory if it was not correctly calculated at the initial
    sentence hearing. See Dissenting Op. at 58–60. But why? Why should the fact
    that it took an appeal and remand to get the advisory guidelines range correct make
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    the corrected advisory guidelines range any less advisory than it would have been
    if the district court had correctly calculated it to begin with? We remand in cases
    like this one to correct errors in the steps leading to the district court’s sentencing
    decision, not to punish the court or the government, or reward the defendant,
    because an error was committed the first time. The dissent would hold that if the
    district court imposed a sentence that was within a higher guidelines range at the
    initial sentencing, it must impose a sentence within the corrected lower guidelines
    range on remand. See Dissenting Op. at 58 (“Nothing in the record at Rosales-
    Bruno’s initial sentencing hearing suggests that the court viewed Rosales-Bruno as
    the type of defendant who warranted an upward variance at all . . . .”). In other
    words, the advisory guidelines become mandatory on remand.
    That is not the law. See United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 246, 
    125 S. Ct. 738
    , 757 (2005); 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1183
    ; see also Spencer v. United States,
    
    773 F.3d 1132
    , 1141–42 (11th Cir. 2014) (noting the “advisory nature of every
    provision of the guidelines” and stating that “a district judge cannot treat th[e]
    guideline[s] as mandatory”). As the Booker decision establishes, the guidelines
    and their application provide advice about sentencing; they do not control it. See
    
    Booker, 543 U.S. at 246
    , 125 S. Ct. at 757; 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1183
    . That is why a
    change in the guidelines range may lead to a change in the sentence but does not
    require one.
    19
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 20 of 90
    The district court must consider the advisory guidelines range in making the
    sentencing decision, but it is only one of a dozen or so factors that the court must
    take into account. See 
    Booker, 543 U.S. at 245
    , 125 S. Ct. at 757; see also 18
    U.S.C. § 3553(a). The Supreme Court has been clear that “[t]he Guidelines are not
    the only consideration . . . . Accordingly, after giving both parties an opportunity
    to argue for whatever sentence they deem appropriate, the district judge should
    then consider all of the § 3553(a) factors to determine whether they support the
    sentence requested by a party.” 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 49
    –50, 128 S. Ct. at 596.
    That is exactly what the district court did in resentencing Rosales-Bruno. It
    correctly recalculated the advisory guidelines range, it gave both parties the
    opportunity to argue for the sentence they thought appropriate, and it then
    considered the remaining § 3553(a) sentencing factors in deciding what the
    sentence should be. The court exercised its authority to assign heavier weight to
    several other sentencing factors than it assigned to the guidelines range. Nothing
    requires a sentencing court to give the advisory guidelines range as much weight as
    it gives any other § 3553(a) factor or combination of factors. See 
    Shaw, 560 F.3d at 1237
    (noting that a sentencing court “is permitted to attach great weight” to
    certain factors) (quotation marks omitted); see also 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 57
    , 128 S. Ct.
    at 600; 
    Williams, 526 F.3d at 1322
    .
    20
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 21 of 90
    A sentence’s variance outside the guidelines range, whether upward or
    downward, represents a district court’s judgment that the combined force of the
    other § 3553(a) factors are entitled to greater weight than the guidelines range.
    Otherwise, there would never be any variances. Yet every year thousands of
    sentences outside the guidelines are imposed and upheld. See, e.g., U.S.
    Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2014, Eleventh
    Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2015) (showing that in fiscal year 2014 district courts imposed
    more than 20,000 sentences outside the guidelines range for reasons other than a
    departure). This is one of them.
    The dissent points out that “[n]othing in the record at Rosales-Bruno’s initial
    sentencing hearing suggests that the court viewed Rosales-Bruno as the type of
    defendant who warranted an upward variance at all, let alone such a significant
    one.” Dissenting Op. at 58. No, but the record and result of the initial sentencing
    show that the district court thought that the appropriate sentence in view of all of
    the facts and circumstances was 87 months. At the initial sentencing, no variance
    was necessary to reach that appropriate sentence. At the resentencing, after
    reconsidering everything in light of the new guidelines range, the court concluded
    that an 87-month sentence was still the appropriate sentence in light of all the facts
    and circumstances, which is why it varied upward to that same sentence. The goal
    of sentencing is not to change the sentence in lockstep with changes in the advisory
    21
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015     Page: 22 of 90
    guidelines range but to “impose a sentence sufficient, but not greater than
    necessary, to comply with the purposes set forth in [§ 3553(a)(2)].” 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a). The district court did that.
    2.
    The contention that ruling out the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) enhancement required
    a sentence within the guidelines is wrong for another reason. When it comes to
    sentencing, particularized facts about the defendant matter. See 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 54
    , 128 S. Ct. at 599 (noting that “the unique facts” of the defendant’s situation
    provided support for the district court’s determination that a below guidelines
    sentence was appropriate) (emphasis added); 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 111
    , 128
    S. Ct. at 576 (holding that the district court did not abuse its discretion by imposing
    a below guidelines sentence where it “properly homed in on the particular
    circumstances of [the defendant’s] case”) (emphasis added); United States v. Pugh,
    
    515 F.3d 1179
    , 1191 (11th Cir. 2008) (noting that we must vacate a sentence and
    remand for resentencing “if we are left with the definite and firm conviction that
    the district court . . . arriv[ed] at a sentence that lies outside the range of reasonable
    sentences dictated by the facts of the case”) (emphasis added) (quotation marks
    omitted); see also 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1189
    –90 (“In reviewing the reasonableness of a
    sentence, we must, as the Supreme Court has instructed us, consider the totality of
    the facts and circumstances.”) (emphasis added).
    22
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 23 of 90
    In assigning weight to the § 3553(a) factors as part of the weighing process,
    a court may (and should) consider individualized, particularized, specific facts and
    not merely the guidelines label that can be put on the facts. The district court did
    focus on the individualized, particularized, specific facts in resentencing Rosales-
    Bruno. His argument against the sentence he received does not focus on them.
    None of the facts about Rosales-Bruno’s illegal reentry conviction or his
    extensive criminal history changed between the first and second sentencing. The
    only change was that his earlier conviction for false imprisonment could not be
    categorized as a “crime of violence” conviction for the limited purposes of the
    U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) enhancement, see Rosales-Bruno 
    I, 676 F.3d at 1022
    –24, no matter how violent it actually was, and that change resulted in a lower
    adjusted offense level and a lower advisory guidelines range.5 The district court
    considered the correct range. But the court also considered the unchanged facts
    underlying his prior convictions for assault, false imprisonment, two separate
    battery offenses, and a dozen driving offenses including some DUIs. As Rosales-
    5
    In Rosales-Bruno I, we applied the “modified categorical approach” to determine that
    Rosales-Bruno’s false imprisonment conviction under Florida Statute § 787.02 was not a “crime
    of violence” for guidelines purposes. 
    See 676 F.3d at 1020
    . Our decision in Rosales-Bruno I
    predated the Supreme Court’s opinion in Descamps v. United States, — U.S. —, 
    133 S. Ct. 2276
    (2013), which made clear that the modified categorical approach does not apply to statutes like
    the Florida false imprisonment statute that contain a “single, indivisible set of elements sweeping
    more broadly than the corresponding generic 
    offense.” 133 S. Ct. at 2283
    (quotation marks
    omitted). That, of course, does not change the inapplicability of the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)
    enhancement, nor does it change the facts underlying Rosales-Bruno’s prior convictions or the
    district court’s duty to consider them under § 3553(a).
    23
    Case: 12-15089   Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 24 of 90
    Bruno conceded at the first sentence hearing, the district court could review the
    facts underlying his earlier convictions in deciding on the proper sentence for his
    conviction in this case. Which is what the court did.
    We vacated Rosales-Bruno’s original sentence because the government had
    failed to carry its burden of showing from the state court sentencing documents,
    instead of from Rosales-Bruno’s actual criminal conduct itself, that his false
    imprisonment conviction under Florida law categorically fit within the definition
    of “crime of violence” required for application of the § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii)
    guidelines enhancement.6 See Rosales-Bruno 
    I, 676 F.3d at 1024
    (citing Shepard
    v. United States, 
    544 U.S. 13
    , 
    125 S. Ct. 1254
    (2005)). This Court never said ––
    and given the plain meaning and common understanding of the word “violence”
    we would never say –– that what Rosales-Bruno actually did to Edith Rodriguez on
    two separate occasions was not violence and more violence.
    Rosales-Bruno attacked Edith Rodriguez and shoved her into a stove. When
    she tried to escape, he grabbed her by the face and pinned her down between two
    beds and took out his cigarette lighter and threatened to burn her with it. Then
    while out on bond because of the charges stemming from that violent attack,
    Rosales-Bruno attacked Rodriguez again. After pulling their 18-month-old
    daughter out of her arms he punched Rodriguez at least five times and forced her
    6
    
    See supra
    note 5.
    24
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 25 of 90
    into his car. She struggled and managed to escape, but Rosales-Bruno chased her
    down and threatened to kill her and grabbed her hair and pulled some of it out and
    started choking her with his arm around her neck. Rodriguez was saved because
    some employees at a nearby business heard her screams, causing Rosales-Bruno to
    flee, taking the little child with him. His brutal assaults on Rodriguez were violent
    crimes as that term is understood in the civilized world, and they may properly be
    considered as violent crimes for sentencing purposes other than for the application
    of an advisory guidelines enhancement under § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A).
    The district court was entitled to look beyond guidelines labels at the actual
    facts of Rosales-Bruno’s earlier crimes and to find that some of his criminal
    conduct was violent and deserved substantial weight. See 
    Shaw, 560 F.3d at 1237
    ,
    1240–41. Given the broad sentencing discretion that district courts have, we are
    not “left with the definite and firm conviction that the district court committed a
    clear error of judgment,” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1190
    (quotation marks omitted), when it
    did exactly that. Cf. United States v. Herrera-Garduno, 
    519 F.3d 526
    , 530 (5th Cir.
    2008) (rejecting defendant’s argument that the district court’s possible
    disagreement with how “drug trafficking offenses” were defined under U.S.S.G.
    § 2L1.2 was an insufficient reason to impose a non-guidelines sentence). The
    sentencing statute at least authorizes, and arguably requires, a court to do what the
    district court did in considering the hard, ugly facts of Rosales-Bruno’s prior
    25
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 26 of 90
    convictions. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(1)–(2) (“The court, in determining the
    particular sentence to be imposed, shall consider — (1) . . . the history and
    circumstances of the defendant; [and] (2) the need for the sentence imposed — . . .
    (C) to protect the public from further crimes of the defendant . . . .”).
    B.
    We also reject Rosales-Bruno’s second contention, which is that in
    resentencing him the district court gave unreasonable weight to his criminal history
    as a whole. District courts have broad leeway in deciding how much weight to
    give to prior crimes the defendant has committed. See, e.g., United States v.
    Overstreet, 
    713 F.3d 627
    , 638 (11th Cir. 2013); United States v. Williams, 
    526 F.3d 1312
    , 1323–24 (11th Cir. 2008) (holding that “it is within the district court’s
    discretion to decide how much weight to give each § 3553(a) factor” and that
    previous offenses “fit[] squarely into one of the § 3553(a) factors, the history and
    characteristics of the offender”); see also 18 U.S.C. § 3661 (“No limitation shall be
    placed on the information concerning the background, character, and conduct of a
    person convicted of an offense which a court . . . may receive and consider for the
    purpose of imposing an appropriate sentence.”); United States v. Early, 
    686 F.3d 1219
    , 1223 (11th Cir. 2012) (“The district court gave great weight to [the
    defendant’s] three bank robberies within a week, and to his substantial criminal
    history. This is not a clear error in judgment.”).
    26
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 27 of 90
    And Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history is extensive. We have already
    described his two violent attacks on the same woman, the second of which
    occurred while he was out on bond pending trial for charges stemming from the
    first attack. 
    See supra
    pp. 3, 25. He violated the terms of his probation in multiple
    ways. In addition, Rosales-Bruno has numerous driving-related convictions. In
    November 2000 he was convicted of driving without a license. In December 2001
    he was convicted of driving under the influence with a blood alcohol level twice
    the legal limit. In February 2002 he was convicted of driving with a suspended
    license. He was again convicted of driving under the influence and driving with a
    suspended license in July 2003. Another incident led to additional convictions in
    July 2003 for giving a false name while arrested or detained and driving with a
    suspended license. In June 2004 he was convicted on three separate counts for
    driving under the influence, driving with a suspended license, and refusing to sign
    citations for those offenses. Finally, in April 2007 he was convicted of driving
    without a valid driver’s license after the police stopped him for speeding and
    observed several open beer containers in his car. 7 And, of course, the present case
    arose because he was convicted in 2011 of the felony of illegally reentering the
    United States after he had been deported following his conviction for a felony.
    7
    The dissent suggests that Rosales-Bruno shows “a decreasing pattern of criminality.”
    Dissenting Op. at 73. The rosy picture the dissent paints of Rosales-Bruno’s criminal trajectory
    fails to take into account that in 2007 Rosales-Bruno’s criminal conduct escalated from driving
    drunk to beating up a woman.
    27
    Case: 12-15089    Date Filed: 06/19/2015     Page: 28 of 90
    Rosales-Bruno is not someone who has devoted much time or effort to complying
    with the law.
    The district court explained in resentencing Rosales-Bruno that it believed
    an 87-month sentence was “appropriate” based on his lengthy criminal history,
    which the court took into account in weighing several of the § 3553(a) sentencing
    factors such as the history and characteristics of the defendant, the need to promote
    respect for the law, and the need to provide adequate deterrence. See 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a)(1), (a)(2)(A)–(B). The court also agreed with the government that the
    § 3553(a)(2)(C) factor about the need for protection of the public supported an 87-
    month sentence. As did the § 3553(a)(1) “nature and circumstances of the [illegal
    reentry] offense” factor, which the court considered.
    The dissent argues that the district court’s consideration of § 3553(a)(2)(A),
    which requires a sentence to “reflect the seriousness of the offense . . . and to
    provide just punishment for the offense,” was “clearly unreasonable” because
    illegal reentry is, in the dissent’s view, a “relatively low-level offense.” Dissenting
    Op. at 71. The dissent is entitled to its opinion, but it is not entitled to substitute its
    views about the punishment the crime deserves for the views of the district court.
    As we have pointed out, we are not reviewing the district court’s judgment de
    novo, but only to determine whether the court abused its considerable discretion.
    See 
    Irey, 512 F.3d at 1184
    .
    28
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 29 of 90
    In any event, the dissent underestimates the seriousness of Rosales-Bruno’s
    conviction. Because Rosales-Bruno committed a felony, and was later deported,
    and then reentered the United States illegally, he moved out of what the dissent
    calls the “relatively low-level” category of 8 U.S.C. § 1326(a) and into the much
    more serious category of § 1326(b)(1). See Dissenting Op. at 71. That escalation
    resulted in the statutory maximum for his crime of reentry after deportation
    increasing from two years to ten years. The latest crime for which Rosales-Bruno
    was convicted, the one for which he was sentenced in this case, is not a “relatively
    low-level offense.”
    The court’s decision to give more weight to the other § 3553(a) factors
    combined than to the advisory guidelines range alone was not unreasonable. See
    United States v. Mateos, 
    623 F.3d 1350
    , 1368 (11th Cir. 2010) (“[I]t is within [the
    district] court’s discretion to decide how much weight to give each of the § 3553
    factors as long as it has not committed a clear error of judgment.”); 
    Shaw, 560 F.3d at 1237
    (“The district court . . . is permitted to attach great weight to one factor
    over others.”) (quotation marks omitted); 
    Williams, 526 F.3d at 1323
    (noting that it
    is “within the district court’s discretion to decide how much weight to give each
    § 3553(a) factor”). Placing substantial weight on a defendant’s criminal record is
    entirely consistent with § 3553(a) because five of the factors it requires a court to
    29
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 30 of 90
    consider are related to criminal history. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(1), (a)(2)(A)–(C),
    (a)(6).
    Our precedent supports the conclusion that the district court did not abuse its
    discretion in assigning weight to, and weighing, the § 3553(a) sentencing factors.
    Under substantive reasonableness review, we have repeatedly affirmed sentences
    that included major upward variances from the guidelines for defendants with
    significant criminal histories that the sentencing courts weighed heavily. See, e.g.,
    
    Overstreet, 713 F.3d at 634
    , 636–40 (affirming 420-month sentence where
    guidelines recommendation was only 180–210 months); 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1221
    –
    22 (affirming 210-month sentence where guidelines range was only 78–97
    months); 
    Shaw, 560 F.3d at 1238
    –41 (affirming statutory maximum 120-month
    sentence where guidelines range was only 30–37 months); see also United States v.
    Turner, 
    474 F.3d 1265
    , 1274, 1280–81 (11th Cir. 2007) (affirming 240-month
    sentence despite guidelines range of only 51–63 months and defendant’s lack of
    criminal history).
    Other circuits have affirmed above guidelines sentences for illegal reentry
    defendants with criminal histories. See, e.g., United States v. Rivera-Santana, 
    668 F.3d 95
    , 98–100, 99 n.5, 106 (4th Cir. 2012) (holding that 240-month sentence for
    illegal reentry following removal for an aggravated felony conviction was
    substantively reasonable even though the guidelines range was only 120–150
    30
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 31 of 90
    months, the variance being justified by the defendant’s extensive criminal history);
    United States v. Yanez-Rodriguez, 
    555 F.3d 931
    , 946–49 (10th Cir. 2009)
    (affirming 144-month sentence for illegal reentry following removal for an
    aggravated felony conviction substantively reasonable even though the guidelines
    range was only 41–51 months imprisonment, the upward variance being justified
    in part by the defendant’s prior conviction for aggravated sexual battery),
    overruled in part on unrelated grounds by Puckett v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    ,
    133–34, 
    129 S. Ct. 1423
    , 1428 (2009).
    C.
    Rosales-Bruno’s final contention is that his sentence was substantively
    unreasonable because his case fell “squarely within the heartland of illegal reentry
    cases” and therefore didn’t merit an upward variance. Relying on impressions that
    his attorney has formed from anecdotal “evidence” alone, Rosales-Bruno posits
    that many illegal reentry defendants have substantial criminal histories and argues
    that because his criminal history is only “average” it cannot serve as the basis for
    an upward variance. Putting aside the legal premise of this contention, its factual
    premise is false. According to the Sentencing Commission, 86.9% of illegal
    reentry offenders in 2013 fell within one of the first four criminal history
    31
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 32 of 90
    categories under the sentencing guidelines. 8 Rosales-Bruno does not. He has a
    criminal history category of V. His category V status sets him apart from most
    illegal reentry offenders, and not to the good. Only 13.1% of illegal reentry
    offenders fall into a criminal history category that is comparable to or worse than
    his. 9
    The dissent believes Rosales-Bruno’s offense is a “mine-run case” of illegal
    reentry not deserving of an upward variance. Dissenting Op. at 64–67. In support
    of that belief, the dissent says that it “suspect[s] that the criminal history of most
    convicted-felon, category V criminals is as bad or worse” than Rosales-Bruno’s
    history. Dissenting Op. at 67. But it backs up its suspicion only with its similarly
    unsupported belief that whatever is true of Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history must
    also be “equally true of other convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants.” 10 
    Id. at 14.
    “Truly, this is ‘turtles all the way down.’” Rapanos v. United States, 
    547 U.S. 715
    , 754 & n.14, 
    126 S. Ct. 2208
    , 2233 & n.14 (2006) (plurality op.).
    8
    See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Quick Facts: Illegal Reentry Offenses (2014), available
    at http://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-publications/quick-
    facts/Quick_Facts_Illegal_ReentryFY13.pdf.
    9
    See U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, supra n.8.
    10
    The dissent repeats and relies on the same speculation when it contends that the district
    court did not provide a justification that was “sufficiently compelling to support the degree of the
    variance.” Dissenting Op. at 69; see also 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 50
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597. It suggests that
    “the justifications supporting the variance imposed here amount to no more than a recitation of
    characteristics that are common to most convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants.”
    Dissenting Op. at 69 (quotation marks omitted). But there is no alchemy in repetition that
    transmutes a guess into a longed for fact.
    32
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 33 of 90
    Conjecture is not proof, and tautology is not reasoning. If Rosales-Bruno believes
    the district court made a clear error of judgment when it sentenced him more
    harshly than it would have done in a “mine-run case,” it is his burden to prove as
    much. 
    Langston, 590 F.3d at 1236
    . Neither he nor the dissent offers any proof.
    Their unsupported assertions and suspicions do not support a “definite and firm
    conviction” that the district court erred when it decided that Rosales-Bruno’s
    criminal history and the other § 3553(a) factors made an 87-month sentence
    appropriate. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1190
    .
    The dissent also contends that because the criminal history category
    assigned to Rosales-Bruno already reflects the fact that he was convicted of earlier
    crimes, the district court had no reason to vary outside the guidelines range. This
    is yet another attempt to smuggle into the discussion the dissent’s position that the
    court should have treated the guidelines range as mandatory. A correctly
    calculated advisory guidelines range always reflects a defendant’s criminal history,
    and yet as we’ve discussed, supra p. 12, district courts impose sentences outside of
    the guideline ranges more than half the time, because other, non-guidelines factors
    outweigh those advisory ranges. Here, the non-guidelines factors that most
    influenced the district court are those that focus on the violent facts of Rosales-
    Bruno’s earlier crimes.
    33
    Case: 12-15089    Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 34 of 90
    Indeed, that our Rosales-Bruno I decision stripped the technical
    § 2L1.2(b)(1)(A)(ii) “crime of violence” description label from acts that were
    unquestionably violent crimes suggests that the guidelines range — which the
    dissent insists should trump everything else — no longer accurately reflects the
    complete “history and characteristics of the defendant.” See 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a)(1). The district court had to take into account the actual facts underlying
    Rosales-Bruno’s convictions in order to fully account for his “history and
    characteristics” in the sentence it imposed. See id.; cf. 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1222
    (noting that the district court found that the advisory “guidelines did not adequately
    account for [the defendant’s] criminal history” because the criminal history score
    “did not reflect the sustained nature of [the defendant’s] criminal conduct”). Doing
    so was not error.
    The dissent would require the district court, before it could vary from the
    guidelines range, to distinguish Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history from that of “the
    average category V illegal reentrant with a felony conviction.” See Dissenting Op.
    at 66. To meet those onerous requirements, district courts would have to have a
    detailed profile of the average offender for each crime, including the average
    number and nature of his prior crimes, and then it would have to show all of its
    work in distinguishing the criminal before it from the average one who commits
    that crime.
    34
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 35 of 90
    Despite what the dissent argues, Dissenting Op. at 66, district courts are not
    required to figure out who is the “average” offender for each crime, at each offense
    level and within each criminal history category, and then explicitly compare the
    details of the case before it with the details of the average offender’s average case.
    That degree of explicit comparison far exceeds the level of explanation we require
    of district courts exercising their sentencing discretion.11 See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1195
    (“No member of this Court has ever before indicated that a sentencing judge
    is required to articulate his findings and reasoning with great detail or in any detail
    for that matter.”); United States v. Sanchez, 
    586 F.3d 918
    , 936 (11th Cir. 2009)
    (“In general, the district court is not required to state on the record that it has
    explicitly considered each of the § 3553(a) factors or to discuss each of the
    § 3553(a) factors.”) (quotation marks omitted); see also 
    Rita, 551 U.S. at 358
    , 127
    S. Ct. at 2469 (noting that the “sentencing judge’s statement of reasons was brief
    but legally sufficient” after the judge “listened to each argument” and “considered
    11
    The dissent claims its new test would not “require an unprecedented degree of explicit
    comparison between offenders,” because “[a]ll [it] would require is that the sentencing judge
    give a credible justification for a major variance from the Guidelines beyond factors that are
    typical of defendants subject to the same advisory range.” Dissenting Op. at 70. But of course
    that is what the district court did here: faced with an advisory guidelines range that no longer
    reflected the violence of Rosales-Bruno’s earlier crimes, the district court described that violence
    in some detail, showing how in the court’s view Rosales-Bruno was not “typical of defendants
    subject to the same advisory range,” Dissenting Op. at 70, and then the court varied upward to
    account for it.
    35
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015     Page: 36 of 90
    the supporting evidence” but found the “circumstances insufficient to warrant a
    [lower] sentence”).
    The dissent’s proposed new averaging requirement is neither feasible nor
    reasonable. It places an impossible burden on district courts to have detailed and
    granular knowledge of the criminal résumé of the “average” offender for each
    offense of conviction at each offense level and in each criminal history category.
    The sentencing guidelines list nearly 60 categories of offenses, 43 offense levels,
    and six criminal history categories. See U.S.S.G. Tbl. of Contents; 
    id. Ch. 5
    Pt. A,
    Sentencing Tbl. Under the dissent’s approach, there would be more than 15,000
    (60 × 43 × 6 = 15,480) different kinds of “average” criminals. And the dissent
    wants district courts to go further still. It would require them to distinguish among
    individual crimes of conviction and among individual aggravating circumstances,
    such as the presence or absence of prior felony convictions. See Dissenting Op. at
    65–66.
    The dissent insists that it doesn’t want a “statistical analysis” and that all it is
    asking is for “district courts [to] use their common sense and experience” and their
    “good judgment.” Dissenting Op. at 66 n.4. But that is exactly what the district
    court did in this case. Drawing on his two decades of experience sentencing
    criminals, exercising common sense and good judgment, the district court
    determined that an 87-month sentence was warranted for this criminal in this case.
    36
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 37 of 90
    Its reward for doing exactly what the dissent said it should do is to be second-
    guessed by the dissent.
    The dissent argues that “[n]othing in the record suggests that Rosales-Bruno
    is any worse than other convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants, let alone so
    much worse that the high end of his advisory sentencing range should be tripled.”
    Dissenting Op. at 63. But the district court — more familiar with that record, more
    familiar with the defendant, and far more familiar than we are with “other
    convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants” — exercised common sense,
    experience, and good judgment when it ruled that an 87-month sentence was
    appropriate under the facts and circumstances of this case.
    The extensive nature of Rosales-Bruno’s criminal history and the specific
    details of his violent criminal conduct made him an outstanding candidate for an
    upward variance from the advisory guidelines range after a conviction for illegal
    reentry. His history of criminal conduct is worse than that of the typical illegal
    reentry conviction defendant. He falls outside, not inside, the heartland of illegal
    reentry defendants. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1182
    (explaining that a case is outside
    the heartland “if there was something unusual, either about the defendant or the
    circumstances surrounding the crime, that warranted a different sentence”). This is
    all the more reason why the upward variance sentence is not an abuse of the district
    court’s substantial sentencing discretion. See 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128
    37
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 38 
    of 90 S. Ct. at 574
    –75 (“[A] district court’s decision to vary from the advisory
    Guidelines may attract greatest respect when the sentencing judge finds a particular
    case outside the heartland to which the Commission intends individual Guidelines
    to apply.”) (quotation marks omitted). When we remanded the case to the district
    court for resentencing we did not imply, much less hold, that the district court was
    forbidden from determining that the appropriate sentence was the same one it had
    imposed before. See Rosales-Bruno 
    I, 676 F.3d at 1024
    (“We express no opinion,
    however, as to what sentence would now be appropriate for Rosales-Bruno.”).
    V.
    Part II of the dissenting opinion criticizes this Court as a whole for the
    message the dissenting judge believes we have sent to district courts about how we
    review sentences for reasonableness. The dissent’s criticism is not about the legal
    standards that we have announced or the holdings of our decisions. We made clear
    in our en banc decision in Irey that the principles we announced in that decision
    applied equally to sentences above and below the guidelines range. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1196
    (“What § 3553(a) requires is a sentence sufficient, but not greater
    than necessary, to comply with the purposes set forth in paragraph (2) of that
    subsection.”) (quotation marks omitted); 
    id. at 1197
    (stating that the proper
    analysis is under “the Goldilocks principle,” which means that “the goal is to lock
    38
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 39 of 90
    in a sentence that is not too short and not too long, but just right to serve the
    purposes of § 3553(a)”) (quotation marks omitted).
    The dissent acknowledges that our decisions, particularly Irey, have
    correctly stated the law. See Dissenting Op. at 82–83 (positing that some think
    “we have given the impression that we are more likely to vacate a lenient sentence
    than a harsh one,” but stating emphatically that “[t]hat is not the law of this
    circuit”); 
    id. at 83
    (conceding that our en banc decision in “Irey articulated
    meaningful lower and upper limits on a court’s sentencing discretion,”); 
    id. at 84
    (acknowledging that “Irey articulates the only standard we use to review sentences
    for substantive reasonableness, and that standard applies regardless of whether a
    sentence imposed by the district court is challenged as too lenient or too harsh”).
    So, we have gotten the law right.
    The dissent’s criticism of this Court is that even though we have gotten the
    law right, it believes that the results of our substantive reasonableness decisions
    have sent a message to district courts that we will not vacate unreasonably long
    sentences, only unreasonably short ones. See Dissenting Op. at 75, 83. We are not
    told whether the accusation is that the Court has done this deliberately or just
    negligently. In any event, if we have been sending a message that contrary to the
    neutral principles we have announced we will favor upward variances more than
    downward ones, either we are not good at sending messages or the district courts
    39
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015      Page: 40 of 90
    of this circuit are not good at receiving them. The irrefutable fact is that district
    courts in our circuit impose far more downward variance sentences than upward
    variance ones. And the disparity in the rate at which downward and upward
    variance sentences are being imposed is increasingly favoring downward
    variances. 12
    The table that is Appendix A to this opinion, which is drawn from
    Sentencing Commission reports and a survey of decisions of this Court, tells the
    story. It shows that in fiscal years 2006 through 2014, the nine fiscal years since
    the Booker decision for which data is available, the district courts in this circuit
    have sentenced 61,866 defendants.13 They imposed 828 upward variance
    12
    We look to these sentencing facts because they, and not any graphic one-time
    occurrences, are the most reliable method of determining whether the message the dissent fears
    has been sent and received. “Cognitive psychology tells us that the unaided human mind is
    vulnerable to many fallacies and illusions because of its reliance on its memory for vivid
    anecdotes rather than systematic statistics.” Steven Pinker, quoted in “Steven Pinker: Fighting
    Talk from the Prophet of Peace,” The Observer, Oct. 15, 2011, available at
    http://www.theguardian.com/science/2011/oct/15/steven-pinker-better-angels-violence-interview
    (last visited June 9, 2015).
    13
    This figure comes from data collected by the United States Sentencing Commission.
    U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2014, Eleventh Circuit 11
    tbl.8 (2015); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2013,
    Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2014); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal
    Year 2012, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2013); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information
    Packet, Fiscal Year 2011, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2012); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical
    Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2010, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2011); U.S. Sentencing
    Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2009, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2010); U.S.
    Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2008, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8
    (2009); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2007, Eleventh
    Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2008); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year
    2006, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2007).
    40
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 41 of 90
    sentences, which amounts to only 1.34% of all sentences.14 By contrast, they
    imposed 9,307 downward variance sentences, which amounts to approximately
    15.04% of all sentences. 15 That means in the post-Booker era, the only period in
    which variances have been possible, there have been more than eleven times as
    many downward variance sentences as upward variance sentences.
    Not only that, but during those nine years the number of downward variance
    sentences has gone up every year but one, 16 increasing overall from 437 in 2006 to
    1,516 in 2014 — a 247% increase in downward variance sentences. The rate at
    which district courts in our circuit have granted downward variances has more than
    tripled as well, from 6.59% in 2006 to 22.52% in 2014. Upward variances, by
    contrast, peaked in 2011 at 116 (1.67%) and decreased each of the next three years,
    falling to 92 (1.37%) by 2014. And in contrast with the 247% increase in
    14
    These figures also come from Table 8 in the Sentencing Commission reports 
    cited supra
    in footnote 13. They exclude instances where a district court imposed a departure, as
    opposed to a variance, above or below the guidelines range. They also exclude instances in
    which the district court appears to have imposed both a departure and a variance above or below
    the guidelines range. However, the data in Table 8 of those Sentencing Commission reports also
    shows that courts in our circuit grant downward departures far more often (about five times more
    often if we exclude government-sponsored downward departures, and about 45 times more often
    if we include them) than they grant upward departures. Which means that if we included
    departures in our numbers the results would show an even greater disparity between outside-the-
    guidelines sentences favorable to defendants as opposed to the government.
    15
    
    See supra
    n.13. Like the figures cited in footnote 
    14, supra
    , these exclude departures.
    They also exclude a category the Sentencing Commission calls “government-sponsored” below
    guidelines sentences that includes both variances and departures.
    16
    The number of downward variances decreased one year (from 1,272 in 2010 to 1,215
    in 2011). 
    See supra
    n.13. Every other one of the nine years from 2006 to 2014, they increased.
    41
    Case: 12-15089      Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 42 of 90
    downward variance sentences, upward variance sentences have gone up only
    39.4% in the post-Booker years. A chart showing the contrasting trends is
    contained in Appendix C to this opinion.
    If, as the dissent insists, the results of our reviews for reasonableness have
    been sending district courts a message that an upward variance sentence is less
    likely to get vacated than a downward variance one, it does not appear that the
    district courts have gotten that message. Or if they have, they simply don’t care.
    They have indisputably been imposing more downward variance sentences and
    have done so at an increasing rate.
    The real reason that district court judges have not responded to the message
    that the dissent sees hidden in the results of our sentencing review is that there is
    no such message. The data in the chart that is Appendix A shows that. The district
    courts in our circuit have imposed 828 upward variance sentences in the nine years
    for which we have data since the year the Booker decision was released in 2005.
    Contrary to the dissent’s claim that “[w]e have not . . . expressly set aside a
    sentence because it was too harsh,” Dissenting Op. at 85, we have in fact vacated
    three of those upward variance sentences as unreasonably long. See United States
    v. Valdes, 
    500 F.3d 1291
    , 1292 (11th Cir. 2007) (vacating a 108-month upward
    variance sentence for bank fraud where the guidelines range was 41 to 51 months);
    United States v. Lopez, 343 F. App’x 484, 485–86 (11th Cir. 2009) (unpublished)
    42
    Case: 12-15089         Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 43 of 90
    (vacating a 60-month upward variance sentence for smuggling unlawful aliens into
    the country where the guidelines range was 33 to 41 months); United States v.
    Gardner, 255 F. App’x 475, 476–77 (11th Cir. 2007) (unpublished) (vacating as
    unreasonable a sentence for misprision of a felony that was 36 months, where the
    guidelines range was 10 to 16 months, regardless of whether it resulted from an
    upward departure or upward variance). 17 This means that we have vacated as
    17
    The dissent spends several pages on an unsuccessful attempt to distinguish or belittle
    our decisions vacating as unreasonably long upward variance sentences. See Dissenting Op. at
    74, 77–82. It first contends that those decisions do not count because none of them “impose a
    sentencing ceiling on remand.” 
    Id. at 74.
    There are two fundamental flaws with that criticism.
    The first is that the dissent never explains why that matters, and it does not. A decision holding a
    sentence is unreasonably long is a decision that the sentence is unreasonably long regardless of
    whether the opinion specifies how long the sentence on remand can be without also being
    unreasonable.
    The second flaw in the dissent’s position is that ignores the fact that, with only one
    exception, when we have vacated sentences as unreasonably short we have not specified the
    sentence that should be imposed on remand either. So under the dissent’s own reasoning only
    one of our downward variance decisions counts in favor of its position –– one decision in nine
    years. It is also worth noting that the one case in which we specified the only reasonable
    sentence that could be imposed on remand is Irey. In it, the top and bottom of the guidelines
    range were the same as the statutory maximum, which meant that the only sentence within the
    guidelines range was the maximum 
    sentence. 612 F.3d at 1224
    . We decided that the facts of the
    crimes in Irey were so horrendous that no downward variance sentence could be reasonable
    “under the totality of the facts and circumstances of th[e] case.” 
    Id. Our dissenting
    colleague
    agreed, joining in full that holding and all of the rest of the Irey opinion. We did in the Irey case
    exactly what he believed we were required to do in that case. He was right then and is wrong
    now.
    Next, the dissent argues that Valdes and Lopez were decided on procedural, not
    substantive, unreasonableness grounds, citing Irey for the proposition that “the adequacy of a
    district court’s . . . sentence explanation is a classic procedural issue.” Dissenting Op. at 78–79
    & n.13 (emphasis omitted). That reasoning misreads Irey. The language the dissent cites in Irey
    stands for the unremarkable proposition that if a district court fails to follow the required
    procedures — chief of which is to consider the § 3553(a) factors — the court has committed a
    procedural 
    error. 612 F.3d at 1194
    ; see also 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597 (explaining
    that “failing to consider the § 3553(a) factors, . . . or failing to adequately explain the chosen
    sentence” is “procedural error”); United States v. Scott, 
    426 F.3d 1324
    , 1329–30 (11th Cir. 2005)
    43
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015         Page: 44 of 90
    (“[T]he district court explicitly acknowledged that it had considered [the defendant’s] arguments
    at sentencing and that it had considered the factors set forth in § 3553(a). This statement alone is
    sufficient in post-Booker sentences.”).
    The Valdes opinion states that the “reasons discussed were inadequate to support an
    extraordinary variance to a sentence of 108 months,” not that the discussion of the reasons was
    itself 
    inadequate. 500 F.3d at 1292
    (emphasis added). The dissent misses that distinction.
    Similarly, in Lopez, we explicitly stated that the district court had complied with its procedural
    duties: it considered the § 3553(a) factors. 343 F. App’x at 486. When we vacated the sentence,
    we did so on substantive grounds, namely that the court’s “justification” — its reason — for the
    sentence was inadequate, not its discussion of that justification. See 
    id. Further, the
    dissent does
    not argue that the downward variance sentences we have vacated for similar reasons should not
    count. See, e.g., United States v. Hooper, 566 F. App’x 771, 773 (11th Cir. 2014) (unpublished)
    (noting that “the court failed to cite a sufficiently significant justification for granting a 100%,
    70-month downward variance”); United States v. McQueen, 
    727 F.3d 1144
    , 1159 (11th Cir.
    2013) (noting that the district court offered “no reasoned justification other than that [a
    codefendant] was getting a lower sentence” for defendants’ downward variances); United States
    v. Pugh, 
    515 F.3d 1179
    , 1201 (11th Cir. 2008) (“Quite simply, in our view, the district court did
    not support this major departure with a significant justification.”) (quotation marks omitted).
    The dissent also argues that Valdes and Gardner were decided under precedents that are
    no longer good law. (Those precedents required an extraordinary justification for an
    extraordinary variance.) Dissenting Op. at 81–82. But so what? The dissent does not claim that
    the decisions were inconsistent with then-binding precedent. See 
    id. Why would
    decisions
    correctly applying the law at the time suggest anything other than that we will continue to
    correctly apply the law? Those two decisions vacating upward variance sentences as
    substantively unreasonable show that we will apply our binding precedent on reasonableness,
    which the dissent concedes correctly states the law.
    We note (as does the dissent, Dissenting Op. at 78–79) that two of these three decisions
    are unpublished and as such do not serve as binding precedent about the law. See 11th Cir. R.
    36-2. Judge Martin recently seemed to seize on that point in her dissent from an unpublished
    opinion in United States v. Rivero, No. 14-10121, 
    2015 WL 1542684
    , at *5 (11th Cir. Apr. 8,
    2015) (unpublished) (Martin, J., dissenting) (“[D]uring the . . . period since Booker, I am aware
    of no published opinion in which we have held that an above-Guidelines sentence was
    substantively unreasonable.”) (emphasis added). But the charge of the dissent in this case and of
    Judge Martin’s dissenting opinion in Rivero is not that we haven’t published enough opinions
    correctly stating the law concerning reasonableness review. It is, instead, that the results of our
    sentence review have somehow sent a message contrary to the neutral principles that we have
    announced in our opinions, including published ones.
    Given that it is the result that matters under the dissent’s theory, it makes no difference
    whether the result comes in a published or an unpublished opinion. Our unpublished opinions
    are, after all, as readily accessible online as our published ones. Ironically, Judge Martin’s
    dissenting opinion in Rivero, like the majority opinion in that case, is itself unpublished. Still,
    44
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015      Page: 45 of 90
    unreasonable 0.36% of the upward variance sentences that have been imposed.
    There have been 9,307 downward variance sentences, and we have vacated 12 of
    them as unreasonably short. This means that we have vacated as unreasonable
    only 0.13% (about one-eighth of one percent) of downward variance sentences.
    So if we assume, as the dissent’s position does, that district court judges are
    closely following our sentencing review results, what they will see is that we mean
    what we say about deferring to their discretion when sentencing. We vacate on
    substantive reasonableness grounds less than 1% of the sentences that vary upward
    or downward from the guidelines range. The message we send to the district
    courts is not, as the dissent suggests, “that they enjoy virtually unfettered
    sentencing discretion, so long as they sentence harshly.” Dissenting Op. at 75. It
    is instead that district courts enjoy substantial discretion in sentencing regardless of
    whether they sentence above or below the guidelines — exactly what our
    precedents say. 18 See 
    Mateos, 623 F.3d at 1366
    ; 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1188
    –89; Shaw,
    that unpublished opinion adequately sends her message about her position on the sending-a-
    message theory.
    18
    The dissent attempts to bolster its argument with dicta from separate opinions of
    another judge and a former judge of this Court and the views of two of the more than 1.2 million
    attorneys in this country. The attempt fails.
    First, the dissent discusses at length Judge Martin’s concurrence in the judgment in
    United States v. Early, 
    686 F.3d 1219
    (11th Cir. 2012). See Dissenting Op. at 55, 68, 75–77 &
    n.11, 83. Judge Martin based her concurring opinion’s argument in part on a statement that, as
    of 2012, she had “found [no cases] in which we vacated an upward variance from the Sentencing
    Guidelines on reasonableness grounds.” 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1223
    (Martin, J., concurring in the
    45
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 46 of 90
    judgment). We do not question the good faith of our colleague in making that statement, but the
    fact is that the Valdes, Lopez, and Gardner decisions, all vacating upward variance sentences as
    unreasonable, were on the books well before 2012 when Early was decided. See 
    Valdes, 500 F.3d at 1291
    (decided in 2007); Lopez, 343 F. App’x at 484 (decided in 2009); Gardner, 255 F.
    App’x at 475 (decided in 2007).
    Next, the dissent suggests that Judge Barkett “identified the same problem” as Judge
    Martin “even before Irey was decided,” pointing to Judge Barkett’s separate opinion in United
    States v. Docampo. Dissenting Op. at 75 n.10; see also 
    573 F.3d 1091
    , 1110 (11th Cir. 2009)
    (Barkett, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). The dissent quotes very carefully and
    selectively from Judge Barkett’s Docampo opinion to make that argument, as it must because
    what she actually argued in it is not the position the dissent advances. In Docampo, the
    defendant was sentenced at almost the exact mid-point of the advisory guidelines range.
    
    Docampo, 573 F.3d at 1093
    , 1095 (affirming sentence of 270 months, just below the midpoint of
    Docampo’s guidelines range of 248 to 295 months). And so Judge Barkett’s argument — which
    she made just after the language the dissent quotes — was that “[w]e should . . . be willing to
    find that, in a case that warrants it, a within-guidelines sentence is greater than necessary to serve
    the objectives of sentencing.” 
    Id. at 1110
    (Barkett, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part)
    (emphasis added; quotation marks omitted). Here, of course, the basis of the dissent’s position is
    that a within-guidelines sentence — and only a within-guidelines sentence — is reasonable. See,
    e.g., Dissenting Op. at 56–60 (arguing that the district court’s failure to give the guidelines “real
    weight” renders Rosales-Bruno’s sentence unreasonable). Both Judge Barkett’s opinion in
    Docampo and the dissent in this case are wrong.
    Finally, the dissent cites two pieces of what it refers to as “scholarly commentary” that it
    believes “echo[]” Judge Martin’s concern. Dissenting Op. at 76 n.11; see also Adam Shajnfeld,
    The Eleventh Circuit’s Selective Assault on Sentencing Discretion, 65 U. Miami L. Rev. 1133
    (2011); Daniel N. Marx, Unwarranted Disparity in Appellate Review of Non-Guidelines
    Sentences for Substantive Reasonableness, 29 No. 2 Westlaw J. White-Collar Crime 1 (2014).
    Well, it is at least commentary. In his article, lawyer Shajnfeld makes the same error as the
    dissent and Judge Martin, claiming that we have never found a sentence “unreasonably severe.”
    
    Shajnfeld, supra, at 1155
    . He ignores Valdes, Lopez, and Gardner all of which predate his
    article. See 
    Valdes, 500 F.3d at 1291
    (decided in 2007); Lopez, 343 F. App’x at 484 (decided in
    2009); Gardner, 255 F. App’x at 475 (decided in 2007). And it is passing strange that the dissent
    would rely at all on an article whose central premise is that Irey — which our dissenting
    colleague joined in full — was wrongly decided. See generally 
    Shajnfeld, supra
    .
    Attorney Marx’s article echoes Judge Martin more literally, quoting the same section of
    her opinion that the dissent quotes. 
    Marx, supra, at 7
    (quoting 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1223
    (Martin,
    J, concurring in the judgment)); see Dissenting Op. at 76. But it appears unlikely that Judge
    Martin, writing about this Court in 2012, could have been talking about the same cases Marx has
    in mind, because his article, which focuses on sentences in white-collar crime cases, discusses
    what he calls an “unwarranted disparity” between two cases decided in 2014 — one by the Sixth
    Circuit and the other by the D.C. Circuit. See generally 
    Marx, supra
    . (comparing United States
    v. Musgrave, 
    761 F.3d 602
    (6th Cir. 2014) and United States v. Ransom, 
    756 F.3d 770
    (D.C. Cir.
    46
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 47 of 
    90 560 F.3d at 1238
    ; 
    Williams, 526 F.3d at 1322
    ; see also Dissenting Op. at 68
    (“District courts clearly enjoy a wide range of sentencing discretion after our
    decisions in Irey and Pugh . . . .”). And district courts use their “wide range of
    sentencing discretion” to sentence below the guidelines range more than eleven
    times as often as they do to sentence above it.19
    The numbers also refute the dissent’s argument when we compare the rate at
    which we vacate upward variance sentences with the rate at which we vacate
    downward variance ones. We have vacated only one-eighth of one percent
    (0.13%) of downward variance sentences that district courts have imposed, while
    we have vacated more than a third of a percent (0.36%) of upward variance
    sentences. In other words, an upward variance sentence has been more than twice
    as likely to be found unreasonable as a downward variance sentence — exactly the
    2014)). Other than quoting Judge Martin’s separate opinion in Early, Marx’s article mentions
    our circuit only in passing, saying that it is one of the circuits that have “vacated below-
    guidelines sentences for white-collar offenders as being substantively unreasonable.” 
    Marx, supra
    , at 6 (quotation marks omitted). We are indeed one of several circuits that have done that.
    The article fails to even mention our cases vacating upward variances. Instead, it relies on a
    2012 report that it states “did not cite any cases in which appeals courts had vacated above-
    guidelines sentences in fraud cases as being substantively unreasonable.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    That is not true. Both the report and the article citing it came out after our 2007 decision in
    Valdes, where we vacated as substantively unreasonable an upward variance sentence for a bank-
    fraud conviction. 
    See 500 F.3d at 1292
    (“Nelson Valdes pled guilty and was convicted of bank
    fraud . . . .”).
    19
    The dissent contends that this makes no difference, because “[j]ust because district
    courts can vary above the Guidelines with virtually no scrutiny does not mean that district courts
    will vary above the Guidelines with regularity.” Dissenting Op. at 83. So the dissent concedes
    that district courts are not heeding the message it believes our decisions are sending. Okay.
    47
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 48 of 90
    opposite of what the dissent believes. The message that we have sent, if any, is not
    “that we are more likely to vacate a lenient sentence than a harsh one,” Dissenting
    Op. at 82, but just the opposite.
    The dissent does not challenge any of our decisions vacating sentences as
    unreasonably short, and it is easy to understand why. 20 Appendix B to this opinion
    is a table listing all of the decisions in which this Court has vacated a downward
    variance sentence as unreasonably short during the nine years between 2006 and
    the current date. Although we have vacated four times as many downward
    variance sentences (twelve) as upward variance sentences (three), remember that
    there were more than eleven times as many downward variance sentences imposed
    (9,307) as upward variance sentences (828). See App’x A. If we had been
    vacating downward and upward variances at the same rate, we would have vacated
    more than thirty-three downward variances (the three upward variances times
    eleven equals thirty-three) instead of only twelve.
    And as Appendix B shows, seven of the twelve cases in which we vacated
    sentences as unreasonably short involved serious crimes where the sentencing
    court had varied all the way down to no jail time at all. Those probation-only cases
    include fraud crimes in which the losses ranged from hundreds of thousands of
    20
    Indeed, our dissenting colleague participated in deciding three of those cases. See
    United States v. Kuhlman, 
    711 F.3d 1321
    (11th Cir. 2013); Irey, 
    612 F.3d 1160
    (en banc);
    United States v. Hendrick, 324 F. App’x 867 (11th Cir. 2009) (unpublished).
    48
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 49 of 90
    dollars to 1.4 billion dollars. E.g., United States v. Hayes, 
    762 F.3d 1300
    (11th
    Cir. 2014); United States v. Livesay, 
    587 F.3d 1274
    (11th Cir. 2009). They also
    include a case where a law enforcement officer’s sentence included no jail time
    even though he had been convicted for beating a handcuffed and unresisting
    arrestee and then locking him in a hot car. United States v. Hooper, 566 F. App’x
    771 (11th Cir. 2014) (unpublished).
    Of the remaining five cases in which we vacated as unreasonable downward
    variance sentences, two were cases in which the defendant had committed a serious
    crime but received virtually no jail time. In both cases the custodial term was little
    more than a fig leaf — and a tiny one at that — insufficient to cover the naked
    unreasonableness of the sentence. In one of those cases, a participant in a massive
    nine-year securities fraud that had resulted in more than a billion dollars in losses
    for shareholders had been sentenced to only seven days in detention. See United
    States v. Martin, 
    455 F.3d 1227
    (11th Cir. 2006). And in the other, a defendant
    who had defrauded a bank out of nearly $500,000 had been sentenced to detention
    in the custody of the United States Marshal for only five hours, to be served either
    the same day as sentencing or whenever convenient, to be followed by probation.
    See United States v. Crisp, 
    454 F.3d 1285
    (11th Cir. 2006). That was not so much
    a detention sentence as it was a minor delay in dinner plans. The point is, where
    we have vacated downward variance sentences as unreasonably short, we have
    49
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 50 of 90
    done so because they really were unreasonably short given the facts and
    circumstances of the cases including, most notably, the crimes.
    Our decisions simply do not show, as the dissent believes, that we review
    below guidelines sentences with especially close scrutiny, searching for reasons to
    vacate them. Instead, we regularly reject reasonableness challenges by the
    government to downward variance sentences after applying the same neutral
    principles that we applied in Irey and other decisions. See, e.g., United States v.
    McBride, 
    511 F.3d 1293
    , 1295, 1297–98 (11th Cir. 2007) (affirming a sentence of
    84 months, which was a downward variance from the guidelines range of 151 to
    188 months, for a defendant who possessed 981 images and 45 videos of child
    pornography); United States v. Gray, 
    453 F.3d 1323
    , 1323–25 (11th Cir. 2006)
    (affirming a sentence of 72 months, which was a downward variance from the
    guidelines range of 151 to 188 months, for a defendant who distributed child
    pornography); United States v. Williams, 
    435 F.3d 1350
    , 1353–55 (11th Cir. 2006)
    (affirming a sentence of 90 months, which was a downward variance from the
    guidelines range of 188 to 235 months, for a defendant who sold five grams of
    crack cocaine); United States v. Neufeld, 223 F. App’x 887, 888–90 (11th Cir.
    2007) (unpublished) (affirming a sentence of 48 months, which was a downward
    variance from the guidelines range of 135 to 168 months, for a defendant who
    conspired to distribute MDMA); United States v. Halsema, 180 F. App’x 103,
    50
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 51 of 90
    103–05 (11th Cir. 2006) (unpublished) (affirming a sentence of 24 months, which
    was a downward variance from the guidelines range of 57 to 71 months, for a
    defendant who possessed child pornography); United States v. Vawter, 167 F.
    App’x 101, 101–03 (11th Cir. 2006) (unpublished) (affirming a sentence of 6
    months, which was a downward variance from the guidelines range of 24 to 30
    months, for a defendant who kited checks).
    To summarize, the dissent’s underlying theory is that Rosales-Bruno is the
    victim of what it claims is a bias in favor of longer sentences because, even though
    we have gotten the law right, the results of our decisions have signaled to district
    courts that we are more likely to affirm upward variance sentences than downward
    variance ones. The primary problem with the theory is that the facts established by
    the undisputed data show that no such signal has been sent or received. The
    message that the results of our decisions have sent is that in our substantive review
    of sentences we defer to the district courts’ broad discretion regardless of whether
    they sentence above or below the guidelines range, except in the rare instances
    where they impose a clearly unreasonable sentence. And the district courts’
    sentencing behavior shows that they have not received the phantom message the
    dissent fears we have sent. Since Booker, the district courts in this circuit have
    imposed eleven times as many downward variances as upward variances, and they
    51
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    have done so at a steadily increasing rate. To quote the eminent logician Mark
    Twain: “How empty is theory in presence of fact!” 21
    VI.
    After considering and giving reasonable weight to each of the relevant
    § 3553(a) factors, the district court in this case imposed an upward variance
    sentence. The sentence did not exceed the outer bounds of the wide range of
    discretion that district courts are afforded. Given all of the relevant facts and
    circumstances, the sentence is not unreasonable.
    AFFIRMED.
    21
    Mark Twain, A Connecticut Yankee in King Arthur’s Court 420 (1st ed. 1889).
    Instead of questioning the accuracy of any of the sentencing data cited in this opinion, the
    dissent quotes the old cliché that “[t]here are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
    Dissenting Op. at 83 n.14. That hackneyed formulation does not fit here because the sentencing
    facts and sentencing review facts cited in this opinion are not mere statistical extrapolations.
    Given how clearly the actual facts refute its thesis, the dissent should instead be bemoaning
    “facts, damned facts, and more facts.”
    52
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015
    1        Page: 53 of 90
    APPENDIX A
    Upward Variance Sentences Vacated as Unreasonable                  Downward Variance Sentences Vacated as Unreasonable
    Fiscal   Number of     Number Number of Upward                    Fiscal    Number of     Number of          Number of
    Year     Defendants        of     Variance Sentences              Year      Defendants    Downward      Downward Variance
    Sentenced     Upward         Vacated as                            Sentenced     Variances     Sentences Vacated as
    Variances     Unreasonable2                                                          Unreasonable 2
    2014        6,731         92             0                        2014        6,731      1,516                  2
    2013        6,716         94             0                        2013        6,716      1,282                  2
    2012        6,837        100             0                        2012        6,837      1,278                  0
    2011        6,932        116             0                        2011        6,932      1,215                  1
    2010        6,989        107             0                        2010        6,989      1,272                  2
    2009        7,098         99             1                        2009        7,098       984                   1
    2008        7,038         94             1                        2008        7,038       740                   2
    2007        6,892         60             1                        2007        6,892       583                   0
    2006        6,633         66             0                        2006        6,633       437                   2
    Totals                                                             Totals
    2006–14      61,866        828             3                      2006–14      61,866      9,307              12
    Rate of Vacatur of Upward Variance Sentences: 0.36%               Rate of Vacatur of Downward Variance Sentences: 0.13%
    1
    The data showing the number of defendants sentenced and the number of variances is drawn from U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical
    Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2014, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2015); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2013,
    Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2014); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2012, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2013); U.S.
    Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2011, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2012); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical
    Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2010, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2011); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2009,
    Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2010); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2008, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2009); U.S.
    Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2007, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2008); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, Statistical
    Information Packet, Fiscal Year 2006, Eleventh Circuit 11 tbl.8 (2007).
    2
    The Sentencing Commission tracks its statistics by fiscal year instead of calendar year. To maintain consistency with that practice for the
    purposes of this chart we have counted United States v. Gardner, 255 F. App’x 475 (11th Cir. Nov. 23, 2007) (unpublished), as a fiscal 2008 case and
    United States v. Livesay, 
    587 F.3d 1274
    (11th Cir. Nov. 16, 2009) as a fiscal 2010 case.
    Case: 12-15089         Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 54 of 90
    APPENDIX B
    Downward Variance Sentences Vacated as Substantively Unreasonable
    Criminal Conduct                          Guidelines Range          Sentence Vacated as
    Unreasonable
    United States v. Hayes,      Business owner masterminded a public corruption          135–168 months in        Probation with no term of
    
    762 F.3d 1300
                   scheme — including over $600,000 in bribes to            prison                   imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2014)             state official in charge of higher education, as well
    as a money laundering conspiracy — that yielded
    more than $5 million in ill-gotten profits.
    United States v. Hooper,     Officer punched a much smaller, handcuffed,              70–87 months in          Probation with no term of
    566 F. App’x 771             unresisting arrestee multiple times in the face          prison                   imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2014)             before locking him in a hot car.
    United States v.             Corrections officers head-slammed, knuckle-              Defendant #1:            Defendant #1:
    McQueen,                     rapped, and beat with a broken broomstick                15–21 months in          1 month in prison
    
    727 F.3d 1144
                   underage inmates, provoking one inmate to fight          prison
    (11th Cir. 2013)             back, and then “fiercely choked” him while he
    begged for mercy; officers continued to beat the         Defendant #2:            Defendant #2:
    breathless inmate until he was “curled into a            151–188 months in        12 months in prison
    defensive ball,” lured him to his feet only to punch     prison
    him in the nose, and finally choked him until he
    was unconscious. Officers viciously beat at least
    five other inmates on separate occasions, leaving
    injuries that were visible days after the attacks, and
    then obstructed an investigation into their conduct.
    United States v. Kuhlman,    Doctor bilked insurance providers of nearly $3           57–71 months in          Probation with no term of
    
    711 F.3d 1321
                   million in payments over five years for services he      prison                   imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2013)             knew were not rendered to his patients. He
    admitted that was motivated by greed, not need.
    United States v. Jayyousi,   From 1993 to 2001, defendants provided money,            360 months to life in    208 months in prison
    
    657 F.3d 1085
                   recruits, and equipment to radical and violent           prison
    (11th Cir. 2011)             Islamist terrorist organizations, including al-
    Qaeda. Defendants were also convicted of
    conspiracy to murder, kidnap, or maim persons
    overseas.
    54
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 55 of 90
    Criminal Conduct                        Guidelines Range          Sentence Vacated as
    Unreasonable
    United States v. Irey,        Remorseless defendant raped, sodomized, tortured,     360 months in prison     210 months in prison
    
    612 F.3d 1160
                    and humiliated over fifty impoverished
    (11th Cir. 2010)              Cambodian children, some of whom were as
    young as four years old, over a five year span. He
    memorialized the cruel acts in more than 1,200
    photographs that he then disseminated on the
    Internet.
    United States v. Livesay, 3   Senior accounting manager knowingly played a          78–97 months in          Probation with no term of
    
    587 F.3d 1274
                    critical role in a massive nine-year securities and   prison                   imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2009)              mail fraud scheme that resulted in nearly $1.4
    billion in losses for shareholders, some of whom
    had invested their life savings in the company’s
    stock.
    United States v. Hendrick,    Defendant was guilty of conspiracy, obstruction of    Unspecified              Probation with no term of
    324 F. App’x 867              justice, and witness tampering.                                                imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2009)
    United States v. Pugh,        Over a period of several years, defendant           97–120 months in           Probation with no term of
    
    515 F.3d 1179
                    knowingly downloaded and distributed to other       prison                     imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2008)              web users at least 68 images of child pornography,
    as well as videos of an adult male raping an infant
    girl and of a young girl performing oral sex on an
    adult male. Defendant admitted that he once saw
    an image of a man having sex with a two- or three-
    year-old who had a dog collar around her neck.
    There were ten known child victims in the images
    found on defendant’s computer.
    3
    The defendants in the related cases Livesay, McVay, and Martin, all of which arise out of the same criminal activity, were originally
    sentenced in 2004, before the Booker decision rendered the Sentencing Guidelines merely advisory. See 543 U.S. at 
    246, 125 S. Ct. at 757
    . Their
    below guidelines sentences therefore were classified as departures (which were allowed before Booker) instead of variances (which were not).
    Because we reviewed those sentences under the Booker reasonableness standard, we have included them in this chart and in our totals for variances.
    Doing so increases our rate of vacatur of downward variances, inclusive of the 2014 cases, from 0.10% to 0.13%.
    55
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 56 of 90
    Criminal Conduct                         Guidelines Range         Sentence Vacated as
    Unreasonable
    United States v. McVay,3    Treasurer of company knowingly participated in a        87–108 months in        Probation with no term of
    294 F. App’x 488            massive nine-year securities and mail fraud             prison                  imprisonment
    (11th Cir. 2008)            scheme that resulted in nearly $1.4 billion in losses
    for shareholders, some of whom had invested their
    life savings in the company’s stock.
    United States v. Martin,3   CFO knowingly participated in a massive nine-           108–135 months in       7 days in detention
    
    455 F.3d 1227
                  year securities and mail fraud scheme that resulted     prison
    (11th Cir. 2006)            in nearly $1.4 billion in losses for shareholders,
    some of whom had invested their life savings in
    the company’s stock.
    United States v. Crisp,     Comptroller of construction company knowingly           24–30 months in         Probation and 5 hours in
    
    454 F.3d 1285
                  prepared false financial statements that defrauded      prison                  custody of U.S. Marshal
    (11th Cir. 2006)            a bank out of nearly $500,000.
    56
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    APPENDIX C
    25.00%
    20.00%
    15.00%
    Downward Variance Rate
    Upward Variance Rate
    10.00%
    5.00%
    0.00%
    2006   2007   2008   2009    2010      2011        2012   2013       2014
    57
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 58 of 90
    CORRIGAN, District Judge, concurring in the result:
    Eighty-seven months imprisonment is a very long sentence in an illegal
    reentry case where this Court has previously determined that the guidelines range
    is 21-27 months. I was concerned that, in arriving at the exact same 87 month
    sentence on remand that he had previously imposed (the high end of the now-
    discredited guidelines range), the district judge did not pay sufficient heed to this
    Court’s decision and did not consider the guidelines as corrected. However,
    Rosales-Bruno has not asserted this ground, or any other procedural irregularity, on
    appeal. As to the only ground actually raised on appeal, whether the 87 month
    sentence is substantively reasonable, I agree that the “sentence did not exceed the
    outer bounds of the wide range of discretion that district courts are afforded.” Maj.
    Op. at 52. Thus, I concur in the result. I think it unnecessary to the decision and
    unwise for me, as a visitor, to join in the important debate between Chief Judge
    Carnes and Judge Wilson regarding Eleventh Circuit sentencing precedent.1
    58
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    WILSON, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    For illegally reentering the United States, a crime with no statutory
    minimum and a base Guidelines range of 0–6 months, Rosales-Bruno was
    sentenced to more than 7 years in prison. In imposing this sentence, the district
    court more than tripled the upper end of the applicable Guidelines range. The
    justifications supporting this major variance are insufficient, and this sentence—
    the product of a clear error in judgment—is “greater than necessary[] to comply
    with the purposes set forth” in 18 U.S.C. § 3553. See United States v. Irey, 
    612 F.3d 1160
    , 1187, 1189 (11th Cir. 2010) (en banc). Therefore, I dissent.
    I.
    For three primary reasons, I conclude that the district court abused its
    discretion in imposing an 87-month sentence on remand, after we previously
    vacated Rosales-Bruno’s initial 87-month sentence. See 
    id. at 1188–89;
    United
    States v. Rosales-Bruno, 
    676 F.3d 1017
    , 1024 (11th Cir. 2012). First, despite a
    massive, 60-month, 68-percent decrease in the upper end of the advisory range
    resulting from this court’s opinion vacating Rosales-Bruno’s initial sentence, the
    sentence imposed at Rosales-Bruno’s resentencing did not decrease by a single
    day. Under the circumstances, it is clear that the district court failed to consider
    the Guidelines as required under 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(4). Second, the sentence
    imposed—more than three times the upper end of the Guidelines range—is the
    59
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 60 of 90
    product of a substantial upward variance in an entirely unremarkable case.
    Sentencing so harshly in ordinary cases will inevitably create wide sentencing
    disparities, contrary to congressional intent. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(6). Third,
    Rosales-Bruno was convicted of illegally reentering the United States, where his
    daughter lives and where he previously found gainful employment. In concluding
    that this crime warranted a sentence of more than 7 years’ imprisonment, the
    district court failed to appropriately consider the nature and circumstances of the
    crime for which Rosales-Bruno was being sentenced as required under 18 U.S.C. §
    3553(a)(1).
    “In . . . cases such as Irey . . . , we vacated sentences on the ground that they
    failed in effect to give ‘real weight’ to the Guidelines or to adequately reflect the
    Guidelines’ policy statements and underlying concerns.” United States v. Early,
    
    686 F.3d 1219
    , 1224 (11th Cir. 2012) (Martin, J., concurring in the judgment).
    The same is true here. Adherence to Irey (vacating a sentence that was too low)
    thus requires vacatur (of a sentence that is too high, like this one). 1
    1
    I do not need to reach whether the Majority opinion is correct in finding that this court’s
    review is limited to substantive reasonableness or whether Rosales-Bruno’s sentence also
    warrants vacatur for procedural error. To the extent procedural error may be narrowly
    characterized as whether the district court stated that it considered the factors and did not err in
    calculating the Guidelines, I agree that no such error occurred. If, however, procedural error
    includes giving insufficient weight to the Guidelines or our prior decision, then those issues,
    however labeled, are squarely before us.
    In his opening brief, Rosales-Bruno argues that none of the Guidelines factors account for
    the major variance imposed on remand and that “[t]he coincidence of the vacated sentence and
    the sentence imposed on remand” make it “quite clear that the district court intended to bypass
    60
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    A.
    Sentencing is highly subjective, and without standardization, sentencing
    based on the § 3553(a) factors is unpredictable and disparate. That is why the
    Guidelines were created. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1181
    . And, while the Guidelines
    are no longer mandatory, see Booker v. United States, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 226, 125 S.
    Ct. 738, 746 (2005), they remain incredibly useful. As the Supreme Court put it,
    “[t]he district courts . . . must consult th[e] Guidelines and take them into account
    when sentencing.” 
    Id. at 264,
    125 S. Ct. at 767. Or, as we put it in Irey, “though
    not bound by the [G]uidelines, a sentencing court may not give them so little
    consideration that it amounts to not giving any real weight to the Guidelines range
    in imposing the 
    sentence.” 612 F.3d at 1217
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    That is exactly what occurred here. Indeed, we will rarely be confronted with
    circumstances that so clearly prove the district court’s failure to give the
    Guidelines “real weight.”
    this Court’s published opinion with or without sufficient justification.” For these reasons,
    Rosales-Bruno avers that his sentence was “unreasonable” and “unsupported by the record.”
    Thus, regardless of whether the grounds for vacating Rosales-Bruno’s sentence discussed here
    are labeled as “procedural” or “substantive,” the issues were not waived and are therefore before
    us. And, of course, the irregularities just quoted from Rosales-Bruno’s brief necessarily
    implicate substantive reasonableness concerns, even if some of the irregularities with his
    sentence could technically fall under the heading “procedural error.” Compare Gall v. United
    States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 51, 
    128 S. Ct. 586
    , 597 (2007) (“failing to consider the § 3553(a) factors” is
    procedural error), with 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1189
    (failing to consider relevant Guidelines factors,
    giving irrelevant factors significant weight, or committing a clear error of judgment in
    considering the factors is substantively unreasonable).
    61
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    Initially, the district court calculated a 70–87 month Guidelines range and,
    concluding that an upward variance was not warranted, the district court sentenced
    Rosales-Bruno at the top of that range. We vacated that sentence because the
    district court mistakenly believed that Rosales-Bruno had been convicted of a
    violent felony and applied a 16-level enhancement as a result of that error.
    
    Rosales-Bruno, 676 F.3d at 1024
    .
    At resentencing, without the erroneous violent-felony enhancement, the
    Guidelines range decreased from 70–87 to 21–27 months, meaning that instead of
    facing a sentence of 7.25 years, Rosales-Bruno faced a sentence under the correctly
    calculated Guidelines of, at most, 2.25 years. However, despite this substantial
    decrease in the applicable Guidelines range, Rosales-Bruno received the exact
    same 87-month sentence as before. To re-impose the sentence we initially vacated,
    the court had to radically depart from its initial determination that Rosales-Bruno
    did not deserve an upward variance, this time concluding that he in fact deserved a
    variance—and a major one, at that, as the 87-month sentence imposed required a
    60-month upward variance, more than tripling the upper end of the Guidelines
    range.
    It is difficult to ignore the uncanny resemblance between the district court’s
    initial sentence and the sentence imposed on remand, and I have little doubt that if
    the Guidelines had been correctly calculated the first time around, Rosales-Bruno
    62
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015     Page: 63 of 90
    would have been sentenced to 27 months. Nothing in the record at Rosales-
    Bruno’s initial sentencing hearing suggests that the court viewed Rosales-Bruno as
    the type of defendant who warranted an upward variance at all, let alone such a
    significant one. And between Rosales-Bruno’s initial sentencing and his
    resentencing, the only changes that occurred cut in favor of a lower sentence.
    Under the Guidelines, Rosales-Bruno was no longer deemed a violent felon, and
    his advisory range decreased by 60 months, or roughly 68 percent. Despite these
    changes, Rosales-Bruno’s sentence did not decrease by a single day.
    The conclusion to be drawn from a sentence that does not change based on
    such a substantial decrease in the Guidelines range is that the Guidelines were
    given no weight at all, requiring vacatur under Irey. 
    See 612 F.3d at 1217
    .
    Ordinarily, it is difficult to tell just how much (or, in this case, how little) weight is
    given to any particular sentencing factor because the Guidelines are but one of
    many factors that the court must take into account. Here, however, one of the
    variables—the Guidelines range—is perfectly isolated, as nothing else changed
    between Rosales-Bruno’s first sentencing and his second. The fact that such a
    dramatic decrease in the Guidelines had no impact on the sentence imposed shows
    clearly that the Guidelines were given no weight at all, which, aside from requiring
    vacatur under Irey, is entirely incompatible with Congress’s command to consider
    the Guidelines when imposing a sentence. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(4).
    63
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    Of course, the Majority opinion suggests that, from the very beginning, the
    sentencing judge thought that 87 months was the correct sentence for Rosales-
    Bruno; the district court came up with an 87-month sentence all on its own, based
    on experience, common sense, and good judgment. But this sentence, 87 months’
    imprisonment, did not come from the district court’s judgment or experience. It
    came from the Sentencing Guidelines—or, more accurately, from a miscalculation
    of the Guidelines. The Majority opinion rewrites history in suggesting that,
    regardless of the Guidelines, the district court was always going to impose an 87-
    month sentence, even if it had calculated the Guidelines correctly the first time
    around.
    Indeed, the Majority opinion even asserts that the best evidence of what the
    district court would have done the first time around is what the court did the
    second time around on remand. Not so. The best evidence of what the court
    would have done the first time around is what the court did the first time around,
    which was to sentence Rosales-Bruno to the upper end of the Guidelines range.
    Again, the number 87 was not a product of the sentencing court’s judgment; it was
    a product of the Guidelines. There is no persuasive explanation in the record as to
    why a criminal defendant, whom the district court in fact decided to sentence
    within the Guidelines in the first instance, suddenly became a defendant requiring a
    triple-upward variance on remand.
    64
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    Further, concluding that a massive decrease in the Guidelines range should
    have at least some influence on the sentence imposed is not the same as suggesting
    that the Guidelines range should be mandatory in violation of Booker. I suggest
    only what our binding precedent in Irey has already held: that Congress’s
    command to respectfully consider the Guidelines includes giving “real weight” to
    the Guidelines, and that by imposing the exact same sentence despite a 68-percent
    decrease in the Guidelines, the district court clearly did not give the Guidelines the
    “real weight” they deserve. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1217
    –18.
    This limited proposition stops far short of treating the Guidelines as
    mandatory. There is an obvious difference between finding an abuse of discretion
    here—where a district court that already found a within-Guidelines sentence to be
    appropriate subsequently disregarded a massive decrease in the advisory range—
    and making the Guidelines mandatory. 2 If the evidence before us is not enough to
    establish that the district court failed to adequately weigh the Guidelines, then no
    evidence ever would be, in which case Irey would have to be rewritten, and 18
    U.S.C. § 3553(a)(4) might as well not exist.
    2
    And, as discussed in more detail in Part I.C., it is not the mere fact that the district court
    varied from the Guidelines on remand that draws my criticism; rather, it is “the degree” and
    “extent” of the variance with which I am properly concerned. See 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 47
    , 128 S.
    Ct. at 595.
    65
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    B.
    The district court’s decision to sentence Rosales-Bruno to more than three
    times the upper end of the advisory range even though he falls in the “heartland to
    which the Commission intend[ed] [the 21–27 month] Guidelines [range] to apply”
    is further evidence that the court abused its discretion. See Kimbrough v. United
    States, 
    552 U.S. 85
    , 109, 
    128 S. Ct. 558
    , 574–75 (2007) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). We have held that “‘closer review may be in order when the sentencing
    judge varies from the Guidelines based solely on the judge’s view that the
    Guidelines range fails properly to reflect § 3553(a) considerations even in a mine-
    run case.’” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1188
    (quoting 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128 S. Ct.
    at 575). This is just such a case, as the primary basis for the variance was Rosales-
    Bruno’s criminal history, which was already reflected in the applicable Guidelines
    range. See, e.g., United States v. Lopez, 343 F. App’x 484, 486 (11th Cir. 2009)
    (per curiam) (vacating an above-Guidelines sentence because the district court
    abused its discretion “[b]y focusing only on [the defendant’s] criminal history,
    without providing any other justification as to the need to deviate almost fifty
    percent above the high end of the guideline range” (footnotes omitted)). As in
    Lopez, the only basis in the record for the district court’s substantial upward
    variance is a rote recitation of the criminal history portion of Rosales-Bruno’s
    66
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    presentence report. This information was already factored into the Guidelines
    calculation.
    Rosales-Bruno’s base offense level was 8. U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(a). He then
    received a 2-level reduction for acceptance of responsibility. 
    Id. § 3E1.1(a).
    A
    base offense level of 6 translates to a Guidelines range of 0–6 months in prison.
    But that was not the offense level or Guidelines range applicable to Rosales-Bruno.
    He had felony convictions to his name, so his offense level increased to 10, 
    id. § 2L1.2(b)(1)(D),
    increasing the applicable Guidelines range from 0–6 to 6–12
    months. In addition to being a felon, Rosales-Bruno was convicted of violating a
    variety of traffic laws and driving while intoxicated on several occasions. These
    prior convictions placed Rosales-Bruno in criminal history category V.
    And the Guidelines account for all of this, as Rosales-Bruno’s recidivism is
    the precise characteristic that landed him in category V. That categorization
    increased the applicable Guidelines range again, this time from 6–12 months to
    21–27 months. Thus, when creating the 21–27 month advisory range applicable in
    this case, the Commission knew it was dealing with illegal reentrants just like
    Rosales-Bruno, who have a prior felony conviction and at least 10 criminal history
    points.
    Accordingly, this Guidelines range already reflects the fact that Rosales-
    Bruno is a repeat criminal who has done reprehensible things. After all, it is hard
    67
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015      Page: 68 of 90
    to imagine a category V defendant who is not a repeat criminal or a felon who has
    not done reprehensible things. The Commission designed the Guidelines to punish
    such defendants more harshly than others, by increasing offense levels from 6 to
    10 and by increasing criminal history categories from I to V. In short, as a result of
    repeatedly breaking the law and doing reprehensible things (at least once), illegal
    reentrants like Rosales-Bruno face a Guidelines range of 21–27 months, rather than
    0–6 months.
    Nothing in the record suggests that Rosales-Bruno is any worse than other
    convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants, let alone so much worse that the
    high end of his advisory sentencing range should be tripled. We have previously
    vacated an above-Guidelines sentence for similar reasons. See United States v.
    Valdes, 
    500 F.3d 1291
    , 1292 & n.2 (11th Cir. 2007) (per curiam) (vacating in part
    because “[m]any of the bases for the district court’s sentence were already
    accounted for in calculating the Guidelines range” (emphasis added)). 3 Why, then,
    did the district court sentence Rosales-Bruno to more than triple the upper end of
    3
    In reaching our conclusion in Valdes, we relied on United States v. McVay, 
    447 F.3d 1348
    , 1357 (11th Cir. 2006), which was subsequently abrogated by the Supreme Court, see 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 46
    , 128 S. Ct. at 594. But when Valdes appealed the sentence imposed on remand,
    we had the opportunity to clarify that, even after Gall, a defendant’s “criminal history alone
    would not justify an upward departure as such behavior is accounted for through [the
    defendant’s] criminal history category.” United States v. Valdes, 298 F. App’x 927, 930 (11th
    Cir. 2008) (per curiam) (emphasis added).
    68
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015   Page: 69 of 90
    an advisory range that was specifically designed for convicted-felon illegal
    reentrants with similar patterns of recidivism?
    The Majority opinion attempts to answer this question by noting that
    Rosales-Bruno is “an outstanding candidate for an upward variance from the
    advisory guidelines range” primarily because he is a category V criminal, placing
    him among the worst 13.1 percent of illegal reentrants. Maj. Op. at 32–38. But it
    makes no sense to suggest that a person is “an outstanding candidate” for being
    treated three times harsher than other category V criminals because he is a
    category V criminal. Being a category V criminal does no more than make
    Rosales-Bruno an outstanding candidate to be treated as a category V criminal,
    which, in this case, means being sentenced to somewhere between 21 and 27
    months’ imprisonment. See 
    Valdes, 500 F.3d at 1292
    n.2; Valdes, 298 F. App’x at
    930 (indicating that a district court abuses its discretion by imposing an upward
    variance based solely on prior convictions that are already incorporated into a
    defendant’s criminal history category).
    Quite simply, nothing in the record suggests that Rosales-Bruno falls outside
    the “heartland” of convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants. See 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128 S. Ct. at 574–75. The Majority’s response—that Rosales-
    Bruno falls outside the “heartland” of illegal reentrants because he is a category V
    recidivist—misses the point entirely. When the Supreme Court referenced the
    69
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    “heartland” in Kimbrough, and when we referenced the “mine-run case” in 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1188
    , the point was not to compare the defendant being sentenced to
    all other defendants who committed the same underlying offense. The point was,
    and is, that we must compare the defendant being sentenced to other defendants “to
    which the Commission intend[ed] individual Guidelines to apply.” 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128 S. Ct. at 574–75.
    After all, the purpose of considering the “heartland” or the “mine-run” case
    is “to avoid excessive sentencing disparities,” 
    id. at 107,
    128 S. Ct. at 574 (internal
    quotation marks omitted), “among defendants with similar records who have been
    found guilty of similar conduct,” 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(6) (emphasis added). That
    purpose is not served by comparing Rosales-Bruno to other generic illegal
    reentrants, most of whom fall in lower criminal history categories and thus face
    lower Guidelines ranges. Congress clearly wants sentencing disparities between
    category I illegal reentrants with no prior felonies, on the one hand, and convicted-
    felon, category V illegal reentrants, on the other, because these two types of illegal
    reentrants do not have “similar records,” and thus, a sentencing disparity between
    the two is entirely warranted. See 
    id. So, again,
    the fact that Rosales-Bruno has a worse criminal record than most
    other illegal reentrants does not place him outside the relevant “heartland.” Of
    course he has a worse criminal record. That is why the Guidelines place him in
    70
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    criminal history category V and increase his advisory range accordingly. But in
    considering whether Rosales-Bruno falls outside the “heartland” for purposes of
    justifying an upward variance from the sentencing range applicable to category V
    illegal reentrants, we must compare Rosales-Bruno to defendants who have similar
    records and thus are treated similarly under the Guidelines.
    Properly understood, then, the question of whether Rosales-Bruno falls
    “outside the heartland to which the Commission intend[ed] individual Guidelines
    to apply,” 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128 S. Ct. at 575 (internal quotation marks
    omitted), can only be answered by comparing Rosales-Bruno to the average
    category V illegal reentrant with a felony conviction. 4 In other words, it is only by
    comparing Rosales-Bruno to people “with similar records who have been found
    guilty of similar conduct” that we can avoid unwarranted sentencing disparities.
    18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(6) (emphasis added). And the record here does not show that
    “there was something unusual, either about [Rosales-Bruno] or the circumstances
    4
    The Majority insists that I place an unreasonable burden on district courts by expecting
    them to know the characteristics of the “average” category V illegal reentrant with a base offense
    level of 10. The burden I would place on sentencing courts is no different than—and, indeed, is
    essential to carrying out—the burden placed on sentencing courts by Congress, which directs
    them to consider the need to avoid unwarranted sentencing disparities between defendants with
    similar records. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(6). It would be impossible to avoid unwarranted
    disparities between defendants with similar records—such as, for example, defendants in the
    same criminal history category—without having some idea what the typical, “heartland,” “mine-
    run” category V criminal was like. By insisting that district courts consider the “average”
    defendant with a particular offense level and criminal history category, I insist only that district
    courts use their common sense and experience to ensure that defendants with similar records who
    commit similar crimes are sentenced similarly. This calls on district court judges to use good
    judgment, not to conduct a statistical analysis.
    71
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    surrounding [his illegal reentry], that warranted a different sentence” than the one
    advised by the Guidelines for other convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants.
    See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1182
    .
    Indeed, while I do not mean in any way to condone Rosales-Bruno’s lengthy
    criminal history, I suspect that the criminal history of most convicted-felon,
    category V criminals is as bad or worse. The district court insisted, as does the
    Majority opinion, that Rosales-Bruno lacked proper respect for the law, needed to
    be deterred, and presented a risk of harm to the public. See 18 U.S.C. §
    3553(a)(2)(A)–(C). All of that is true, but all of that is equally true of other
    convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants. These concerns explain why the
    Commission increased Rosales-Bruno’s advisory range from 0–6 months to 21–27
    months, just as it did for all other convicted-felon, category V illegal reentrants.
    But these concerns do nothing to explain why the district court then more than
    tripled the upper end of that range—a range the Commission designed for people
    just like Rosales-Bruno.
    In short, Rosales-Bruno is a “mine-run” convicted-felon, category V illegal
    reentrant, and it is clear that “the sentencing judge varie[d] from the Guidelines
    based solely on the judge’s view that the Guidelines range fail[ed] properly to
    reflect § 3553(a) considerations.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1188
    (quoting 
    Kimbrough, 552 U.S. at 109
    , 128 S. Ct. at 575). Allowing district courts to triple the upper end of
    72
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    the Guidelines range in ordinary cases will lead inevitably to unwarranted
    sentencing disparities in direct contravention of Congress’s purpose in passing 18
    U.S.C. § 3553(a)(6). In “cases such as Irey and Pugh, we vacated sentences on the
    ground that they failed . . . to adequately reflect the Guidelines’ policy statements
    and underlying concerns.” 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1224
    (Martin, J., concurring in the
    judgment) (citing United States v. Pugh, 
    515 F.3d 1179
    , 1199–1201 (11th Cir.
    2008)). Adherence to this authority requires vacatur here. And concluding that the
    district court abused its discretion by acting in a way that would lead to wide
    sentencing disparities in ordinary cases is not at all inconsistent with Booker’s
    prohibition on treating the Guidelines as mandatory. After all, Booker did not
    prohibit us from vacating Pugh’s sentence based on the district court’s failure to
    “adequately reflect . . . the sentencing range established by the Guidelines.” 
    Pugh, 515 F.3d at 1200
    (internal quotation marks omitted). District courts clearly enjoy a
    wide range of sentencing discretion after our decisions in Irey and Pugh, and they
    would continue to do so were we to follow the precedent set by those cases, which
    requires us to vacate Rosales-Bruno’s sentence.
    C.
    Rosales-Bruno’s sentence appears all the more unreasonable in light of the
    “degree of variance . . . and . . . the extent of [the] deviation[] from the
    Guidelines,” which we are free to consider. Gall, 552 U.S. at 
    47, 128 S. Ct. at 595
    73
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 74 of 90
    (emphasis added). The 60-month upward variance Rosales-Bruno received,
    resulting in a sentence more than three times the upper end of the Guidelines range,
    “[w]hether considered in absolute or percentage terms, . . . is a ‘major’ variance in
    the legal parlance of sentencing law.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1196
    . Instead of spending
    roughly two years in prison, as will most convicted illegal reentrants with similar
    criminal records, Rosales-Bruno will spend the better part of a decade behind bars.
    The Supreme Court has made clear that, when variances are imposed, the
    district court’s justification must be “sufficiently compelling to support the degree
    of the variance,” with “a major departure” requiring “a more significant
    justification than a minor one.” 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 50
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597. While the
    Supreme Court has precluded formulaic proportionality requirements or a rule that
    permits variances only under extraordinary circumstances, it remains our duty to
    “see that the justification [for a variance] is sufficiently compelling” to “support
    the degree of the variance.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1187
    (internal quotation marks
    omitted). 5 But the “justifications” supporting the variance imposed here amount to
    no more than a recitation of characteristics that are common to most convicted-
    felon, category V illegal reentrants. These justifications are “[in]sufficiently
    compelling to support the degree of the variance.” 
    Id. (internal quotation
    marks
    5
    Irey candidly recognizes the internal tension in the rule that the reason for a variance
    must be sufficiently compelling to support the degree of the variance but that a proportionality
    requirement is prohibited. 
    See 612 F.3d at 1186
    –87 & n.14.
    74
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 75 of 90
    omitted). Indeed, if these justifications were sufficient, then virtually any category
    V defendant—who by definition would have a long criminal record that is sure to
    contain sordid details casting the defendant in a highly unflattering light—could be
    sentenced to three times the upper end of the advisory range, undermining the
    Guidelines’ primary purpose of preventing unwarranted sentencing disparities.
    In reaching this conclusion, I am not seeking to require an unprecedented
    degree of explicit comparison between offenders before a district court may
    sentence a defendant. All I would require is that the sentencing judge give a
    credible justification for a major variance from the Guidelines beyond factors that
    are typical of defendants subject to the same advisory range. This is precisely what
    is required by the Supreme Court and by Chief Judge Carnes’s opinion for this
    court in Irey, where we said Irey’s sentence was too low. 
    See 612 F.3d at 1196
    (“[T]he requirement is that the justification be ‘sufficiently compelling to support
    the degree of the variance.’” (quoting 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 50
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597)).
    The degree of a variance is a factor that is independently significant and that here
    weighs heavily in favor of reversal; the Supreme Court has reiterated that our
    review for substantive reasonableness requires us to “take into account the totality
    of the circumstances, including the extent of any variance from the Guidelines
    range,” 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597, as “the extent of the difference
    between a particular sentence and the recommended Guidelines range is surely
    75
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 76 of 90
    relevant,” 
    id. at 41,
    128 S. Ct. at 591. Because the district court imposed a major
    variance in a “mine-run” case, in the absence of sufficiently compelling
    justifications for any variance, let alone such a major one, I would vacate Rosales-
    Bruno’s unreasonably harsh sentence. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1186
    –87.
    D.
    Section 3553(a)(2)(A) requires that a sentence “reflect the seriousness of the
    offense . . . and provide just punishment for the offense.” 18 U.S.C. §
    3553(a)(2)(A) (emphasis added). The district court’s consideration of this factor
    was clearly unreasonable. It is critical here to recall that Rosales-Bruno is not
    being sentenced for abusing his girlfriend or for driving drunk. He has already
    been punished for those crimes, and his punishment under the Guidelines for the
    instant crime has already been increased substantially as a result of those past
    offenses.
    He is being sentenced for illegal reentry under 8 U.S.C. § 1326, 6 which is a
    relatively low-level offense.7 Further, it is undisputed that Rosales-Bruno’s
    6
    Rosales-Bruno was convicted of illegal reentry in violation of 8 U.S.C. § 1326(a).
    Subsections (b)(1)–(2), which provide for enhancements based on prior convictions, are
    sentencing enhancements, not different crimes. See, e.g., Almendarez-Torres v. United States,
    
    523 U.S. 224
    , 226–27, 230, 
    118 S. Ct. 1219
    , 1222, 1224 (1998) (describing § 1326(b) as “a
    penalty provision” that “does not define a separate crime”).
    7
    The Majority accurately observes that illegal reentry under 8 U.S.C. § 1326 is subject to
    a two-year maximum sentence, but that, pursuant to § 1326(b)(1), the statutory maximum
    increases to ten years for illegal reentrants like Rosales-Bruno who were deported following a
    felony conviction. Again, however, the Guidelines account for Rosales-Bruno’s prior felony
    conviction, as evidenced by the fact that the upper end of his advisory range, 27 months,
    76
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015        Page: 77 of 90
    commission of the offense was routine and unremarkable. For category I
    offenders, the crime carries the lowest range the Guidelines have to offer: 0–6
    months. It is thus striking that the district court mentioned the nature and
    circumstances of the instant offense as a factor making an 87-month sentence
    appropriate. In contrast, the Commission believes that the essential nature and
    circumstances of the illegal-reentry offense, by themselves, make at most a 6-
    month sentence appropriate,8 suggesting that an 87-month sentence is wildly
    inappropriate. The district court offered no basis for disagreeing with this
    assessment. This factor clearly cuts—and cuts hard—against the reasonableness of
    the district court’s decision.
    Indeed, consideration of the circumstances surrounding Rosales-Bruno’s
    illegal reentry into the United States makes a 60-month upward variance seem
    outrageous. Rosales-Bruno has a daughter in the United States, and he apparently
    reentered the United States to resume gainful employment in the citrus processing
    exceeded the statutory maximum for a simple violation of § 1326 without a sentencing upgrade
    under § 1326(b)(1). So, it is perfectly clear that the applicable Guidelines range was already
    adjusted to reflect the increased seriousness of Rosales-Bruno’s offense. And it is well worth
    noting that Rosales-Bruno’s illegal reentry fell into the statutory mid-range of seriousness, not at
    the upper end of the spectrum as one might expect in a case where the district court imposed
    such a massive upward variance. Compare 8 U.S.C. § 1326(b)(1) (punishing illegal reentry
    following deportation for a felony to a maximum of 10 years’ imprisonment), with § 1326(b)(2)
    (punishing illegal reentry following deportation for an aggravated felony to a maximum of 20
    years’ imprisonment).
    8
    Adjusting only for his prior felony conviction, Rosales-Bruno’s offense level was 8,
    which carries advisory ranges beginning at 0–6 months, depending on criminal history category.
    77
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 78 of 90
    industry. Of course, it is illegal for Rosales-Bruno to be in the same country as his
    child and to continue working here as he had before he was deported, but spending
    more than 2 years in prison for this crime certainly seems like punishment enough.
    And spending more than 7 years in prison for this offense is plainly too much. See
    18 U.S.C. § 3553(a)(2)(A).
    ***
    On balance, the § 3553(a) factors clearly do not support an above Guidelines
    sentence in this case, and varying so significantly above the Guidelines based on
    facts about Rosales-Bruno’s history that are common to most people in the
    applicable Guidelines range was clearly even more unreasonable. See, e.g., 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597 (requiring reviewing courts to consider “the
    totality of the circumstances, including the extent of any variance from the
    Guidelines range”). Rosales-Bruno is far from an outlier among convicted-felon,
    category V illegal reentrants. If anything, by virtue of his gainful employment and
    decreasing pattern of criminality, he appears to be among the less dangerous, less
    depraved, and more productive portion of his criminal history category. 9 Yet he
    was sentenced as if he were much, much, much worse. If a district court does not
    9
    I do not mean to suggest that Rosales-Bruno deserved a downward variance, but there
    are more facts in the record to support a downward variance than to support trebling the
    Guidelines. That is because, unlike the aggravating circumstances counting against Rosales-
    Bruno (his criminal history), the mitigating circumstances (his seeming desire to be in the same
    country as his daughter and source of employment as well as his decreasing pattern of criminal
    behavior) are not necessarily factored into the Guidelines range.
    78
    Case: 12-15089     Date Filed: 06/19/2015    Page: 79 of 90
    abuse its discretion by tripling the upper end of a Guidelines range in a “mine-run”
    case where the Guidelines already incorporate and account for the defendant’s
    worst characteristics, it is difficult to imagine any circumstances under which we
    would find an abuse of discretion because a sentence is too harsh. Unlike the
    Majority, I am left with the definite and firm conviction that the district court
    committed a clear error of judgment, and I would vacate Rosales-Bruno’s sentence
    and remand for resentencing within the Guidelines.
    II.
    We have never vacated a sentence because it was too high, imposing a
    sentencing ceiling on remand. By contrast, on numerous occasions, we have
    vacated sentences because they were too low and imposed a sentencing floor. See,
    e.g., 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1224
    –25 & n.46 (concluding that no sentence less than 30
    years would suffice); 
    Pugh, 515 F.3d at 1204
    (holding that a sentence of probation
    without imprisonment or supervised release was—and would be—unreasonable);
    see also United States v. Livesay, 
    587 F.3d 1274
    , 1279 (11th Cir. 2009) (“Not only
    do we hold that the particular sentence imposed below is unreasonable, but we also
    hold that any sentence of probation would be unreasonable . . . .”); United States v.
    McVay, 294 F. App’x 488, 490 (11th Cir. 2008) (per curiam) (prohibiting the
    district court from imposing a sentence without prison time). This forces me to
    believe that we are grading harshness and lenience on different scales. By failing
    79
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    to adhere to Irey and Pugh in this upward variance case, the Majority opinion
    reinforces this unstated double standard. It is true that we say all sentences are
    meaningfully reviewed for reasonableness, but in practice, it seems that only
    lenient sentences are subject to vacatur on purely substantive grounds. The
    message that we are sending to the district courts by this precedent is that they
    enjoy virtually unfettered sentencing discretion, so long as they sentence harshly.
    In other words, while we say otherwise, we are in reality reading a “severity
    principle” into sentencing that should not be there. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1196
    –97
    (explaining that § 3553(a) supports neither a “parsimony principle” nor a “severity
    principle”).
    A.
    Our case law has been so one-sided that we have convinced at least one
    member of this court, Judge Martin, that we do not actually place an upper limit on
    sentencing discretion, despite our pretensions to the contrary. That is, she believes
    that we have been so obvious in applying our unwritten “severity principle” that it
    is now the law of our circuit.10 In Early, Judge Martin stated that our precedent
    “teaches deference to . . . any variance above the Guideline range, no matter how
    10
    Judge Barkett (now retired) identified the same problem even before Irey was decided.
    In United States v. Docampo, she explained that “we essentially pose two separate questions: (1)
    Is the sentence enough punishment? and (2) Is the sentence too much punishment? Appellate
    courts have had no difficulty finding unreasonableness when asking the former. . . . Our
    appellate sentencing review should not develop into a one-way ratchet upwards.” 
    573 F.3d 1091
    , 1110 (11th Cir. 2009) (Barkett, J., concurring, in part, and dissenting, in part).
    80
    Case: 12-15089       Date Filed: 06/19/2015      Page: 81 of 90
    large,” so long as it is under the statutory maximum, of course. 
    11 686 F.3d at 1223
    (Martin, J., concurring in the judgment). The Majority teaches the same lesson.
    Judge Martin then articulated the two different standards of review that she
    sees being applied depending on whether a sentence is harsh or lenient:
    My reading of these cases tells me that in considering sentences
    above the Guideline range, we look only to whether the sentencing
    court seemed to consider the § 3553(a) factors and we ignore whether
    the court might have disregarded one of the factors or weighed the
    factors in an unreasonable way. In contrast, for downward variances,
    we show no such deference and instead scrutinize how a sentencing
    court applied each and every § 3553(a) factor. We even go so far as
    to decide for ourselves whether the factors were weighed correctly.
    . . . In downward variance cases such as Irey . . . , we vacated
    sentences on the ground that they failed in effect to give real weight to
    the Guidelines or to adequately reflect the Guidelines’ policy
    statements and underlying concerns. . . .
    . . . In sum, even though our case law purportedly requires a
    significant justification to support a major departure from the
    Guidelines, the panel’s review of Mr. Early’s 116 percent upward
    variance evinces little indication that such a requirement even applies
    here.
    
    Id. at 1223–25
    (citations and internal quotation marks omitted). Unmistakably,
    that requirement does apply here. 12 I agree with Judge Martin’s summary of our
    11
    In a sign that others have noticed the dichotomy Judge Martin described in our case
    law, her concern is echoed in scholarly commentary. See Adam Shajnfeld, The Eleventh
    Circuit’s Selective Assault on Sentencing Discretion, 65 U. Miami L. Rev. 1133, 1133 (2011)
    (claiming that we “unfairly wield[] a single-edged sword, capable of striking what is perceived
    as an unduly lenient sentence yet impotent against an unduly harsh one”); see also Daniel N.
    Marx, Unwarranted Disparity in Appellate Review of Non-Guidelines Sentences for Substantive
    Reasonableness, 29 Westlaw J. White-Collar Crime 1, 6–7 (2014) (describing the disparity in
    appellate review of sentences, including Judge Martin’s commentary on the Eleventh Circuit’s
    approach).
    81
    Case: 12-15089        Date Filed: 06/19/2015       Page: 82 of 90
    standard of review as applied to lenient sentences but disagree with her to the
    extent that she suggests any other standard applies to harsh sentences. Thus, I
    believe that in upward variance cases such as this, just as in downward variance
    cases such as Irey, “we vacate[] sentences [when] they fail[] in effect to give ‘real
    weight’ to the Guidelines or to adequately reflect the Guidelines’ policy statements
    and underlying concerns.” 
    Id. at 1224.
    As discussed above, the district court here
    failed to give “real weight” to the Guidelines and imposed a sentence that does not
    reflect the Guidelines’ purpose of eliminating sentencing disparities between
    similarly-situated defendants. Because the principles that led us to vacate Irey’s
    sentence compel vacatur of Rosales-Bruno’s sentence, and because those
    principles apply in upward variances cases just as much as they do in downward
    variance cases, I cannot find that the sentence imposed here was reasonable.
    B.
    The Majority opinion disputes that we have adopted a severity principle in
    our review of sentencing decisions, citing three cases which, in the Majority’s
    view, prove that we have vacated overly-harsh sentences as substantively
    unreasonable. These cases indicate, however, that the sentences were not actually
    vacated because they were too long.
    12
    I reiterate that my position would not deprive sentencing courts of the substantial
    discretion they enjoy post-Booker. I agree with our decision in Early to affirm the sentence
    imposed even though it was more than two times the upper end of the Guidelines range.
    82
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    In the only published case, Valdes (a three paragraph, per curiam opinion),
    the defendant was sentenced to 108 months’ imprisonment, far above the upper
    end of the advisory 
    range. 500 F.3d at 1292
    . On appeal, we held that “the reasons
    discussed were inadequate to support an extraordinary variance.” 
    Id. This opinion
    does not, however, prove that we have indeed vacated a sentence because it was
    too long. Instead of holding, as we did in Irey, that “no sentence less than [the
    advisory sentence] is 
    sufficient,” 612 F.3d at 1225
    , in Valdes, we held that “the
    reasons discussed were 
    inadequate,” 500 F.3d at 1292
    . As we recognized in Irey,
    “the adequacy of a district court’s . . . sentence explanation is a classic procedural
    issue, not a substantive one.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1194
    (emphasis added). Thus,
    Valdes based vacatur at least in part on procedural, not substantive grounds. 13
    The distinction is critical because Valdes, unlike Irey, left open the
    possibility that the district court could impose the same sentence on remand if a
    more thorough explanation were offered. Again, in Irey, it did not matter what
    13
    The Majority opinion suggests that there is an important distinction to consider
    between substantive and procedural reversals; that the remand in Valdes based on “the reasons
    discussed” is a substantive ground, whereas remand based on “the discussion of the reasons”
    would have rendered it procedural. My point is not to quibble over labels. Instead, my point is
    that remanding because “the reasons discussed were inadequate” leaves open the possibility that
    there were other reasons that were not discussed that could be adequate to support the sentence
    imposed. See 
    Valdes, 500 F.3d at 1292
    . In other words, on remand, the district court was free to
    impose the same sentence, provided that additional reasons were discussed or developed in the
    record. And it is worth noting that, although the district court did not impose the exact same
    sentence on remand, it again varied significantly above the Guidelines, and we affirmed. See
    Valdes, 298 F. App’x at 930–31 (affirming an 84-month sentence, 33 months above the upper
    end of the Guidelines range). Thus, I reiterate: we have not expressly vacated a sentence because
    it was too long or too harsh, but we have done so because a sentence was too short.
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    reasons the district court gave for its downward variance or whether it gave those
    reasons (as indeed it did); no sentence explanation could render any downward
    variance substantively reasonable in that case, and we instructed the district court
    to sentence Irey within the advisory range. See 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1224
    –25 & n.46
    (requiring the district court to impose a sentence of 30 years on remand).
    Nor does our unpublished opinion in Lopez, 343 F. App’x 484, signal the
    same warning against harsh sentencing as cases such as Irey signaled against
    lenient sentencing. In vacating Lopez’s sentence, we explained that “the judge’s
    ability to [deviate above the guideline range despite the conviction’s role in
    helping to dictate that range] does not then give free rein to impose any sentence
    above without first adequately justifying that decision.” 
    Id. at 486
    n.1 (emphasis
    added). As with Valdes, then, our decision in Lopez, which rested on “the
    adequacy of a district court’s . . . explanation,” was, at least in significant part, “a
    classic procedural [decision], not a substantive one.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1194
    ; see
    also 
    Gall, 552 U.S. at 51
    , 128 S. Ct. at 597 (“failing to adequately explain the
    chosen sentence—including an explanation for any deviation from the Guidelines
    range” is procedural error).
    Further, regardless of whether the Majority opinion is correct that Lopez
    represents vacatur on substantive grounds alone, that decision, which was
    unpublished, did very little to eliminate any unwritten severity principle in our law.
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    And if Lopez applied the standard in this circuit for vacating harsh sentences, then
    it strongly supports reversal here. After all, in Lopez, we held that the district court
    abused its discretion “[b]y focusing only on Lopez’s criminal history, without
    providing any other justification as to the need to” vary above the Guidelines. 343
    F. App’x at 486. That is precisely what happened in this case. Accordingly, if
    Lopez means what the Majority opinion claims, then Rosales-Bruno’s sentence is
    also substantively unreasonable.
    Thus, Valdes and Lopez only strengthen my contention that Rosales-Bruno’s
    sentence should be vacated. In those cases, as here, the district court varied above
    the Guidelines based on factors that were already incorporated into the Guidelines
    without providing any other justification for varying upward so substantially. See
    Valdes, 298 F. App’x at 930 (reaffirming our initial holding in Valdes that the
    defendant’s “criminal history alone would not justify an upward departure as such
    behavior is accounted for through his criminal history category”); Lopez, 343 F.
    App’x at 486 (vacating the defendant’s sentence because the court “focus[ed] only
    on [the defendant’s] criminal history”). If Valdes and Lopez are distinguishable
    from this case, it is only because the variance here is more severe, and thus less
    justifiable and less reasonable, than the variances in those cases.
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    There is another reason that Valdes and the third case the Majority opinion
    cites, our unpublished opinion in United States v. Gardner, 255 F. App’x 475 (11th
    Cir. 2007) (per curiam), do not alleviate my concern that we are developing a
    severity principle in sentencing. In Valdes, we vacated the sentence because “the
    reasons discussed were inadequate to support an extraordinary 
    variance.” 500 F.3d at 1292
    (emphasis added). Similarly, in Gardner, we vacated the above-
    Guidelines sentence because “[t]he extraordinary upward variance . . . was not
    supported by extraordinary circumstances.” See 255 F. App’x at 476–77.
    The rule underlying those decisions is no longer good law. Valdes and
    Gardner cited McVay, 
    447 F.3d 1348
    , for the proposition that “a district court’s
    imposition of a sentence that falls far outside the Guidelines range must be
    supported by extraordinary circumstances.” 
    Valdes, 500 F.3d at 1292
    n.2
    (emphasis added); see Gardner, 255 F. App’x at 476 (citing McVay for the same
    proposition). But McVay’s “extraordinary circumstances” requirement, upon
    which our holdings in both Valdes and Gardner were based, was explicitly
    abrogated by the Supreme Court in Gall, 552 U.S. at 
    47, 128 S. Ct. at 595
    (“We
    reject . . . an appellate rule that requires ‘extraordinary’ circumstances to justify a
    sentence outside the Guidelines range.”). Thus, neither Valdes nor Gardner proves
    that we have vacated a sentence because it was too long. They prove only that we
    have vacated a sentence when the district court failed to adequately justify a
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    variance with “extraordinary circumstances,” which district courts are no longer
    required to do.
    Consequently, to the extent the cases cited by the Majority opinion do
    reverse at least in part on substantive grounds, those same grounds plainly support
    reversal in this case. And my point remains: we have never expressly vacated a
    sentence as substantively unreasonable because it was simply too long and
    imposed a sentencing ceiling on remand. By contrast, we have not hesitated to
    vacate a sentence as substantively unreasonable because it was simply too short,
    and in many of those cases, we imposed a sentencing floor on remand. See, e.g.,
    
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1224
    –25 & n.46; 
    Pugh, 515 F.3d at 1204
    ; 
    Livesay, 587 F.3d at 1279
    ; McVay, 294 F. App’x at 490; see also Maj. Op. at App. B.
    C.
    If we do not vacate unreasonably long sentences like the one imposed here,
    district courts can assume that upward variances from the Guidelines are
    essentially per se reasonable and will not be reversed. At the same time, Irey
    proves that the same is not true of downward variances. Thus, while we are bound
    to apply the same abuse of discretion standard when reviewing the substantive
    reasonableness of all sentences, we have given the impression that we are more
    likely to vacate a lenient sentence than a harsh one, “even where the extent of the
    variance from the Guideline range was far smaller and where the reasons given by
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    the sentencing court were more substantial.” 
    Early, 686 F.3d at 1223
    (Martin, J.,
    concurring in the judgment). That is not the law of this circuit. Irey articulated
    meaningful lower and upper limits on a court’s sentencing discretion, and that is
    why I joined Chief Judge Carnes’s majority opinion in Irey (even though then-
    Chief Judge Edmondson and Judges Tjoflat, Birch, Barkett, and Martin did not).
    But it is becoming difficult to believe that those upper limits are actually as
    meaningful as we said.
    The statistics cited by the Majority opinion, which show that district courts
    vary downward more frequently than they vary upward, do nothing to suggest that
    district courts have failed to pick up on the implicit message we have sent. 14 Just
    because district courts can vary above the Guidelines with virtually no scrutiny
    does not mean that district courts will vary above the Guidelines with regularity.
    And it should come as no surprise that district courts encounter more defendants
    who deserve lenience (in relation to the Guidelines) than harshness. The
    Guidelines do a much better job of incorporating defendants’ aggravating
    14
    Chief Judge Carnes looks to Mark Twain for wisdom—but I recall that Mr. Twain also
    once proclaimed, “There are three kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.” See Mark
    Twain, Chapters from My Autobiography—XX, 186 N. Am. Rev. 465, 471 (1907) (attributing
    the expression to Benjamin Disraeli). The point being that accurate data can be manipulated to
    make invalid points. Accordingly, I have no reason to question the accuracy of the sentencing
    data relied on by the Majority opinion. Instead, I dispute that a recitation of district court
    sentencing statistics proves what the Majority claims about how our precedent affects district
    court decisions. Contrary to Chief Judge Carnes’s implications, statistics about what the district
    courts do in sentencing does absolutely nothing to counter my concern that, on appellate review,
    we are applying different principles depending on the sentence before us.
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    characteristics (such as the type, nature, and number of their prior offenses) than
    they do of capturing the myriad mitigating characteristics about defendants that
    may justify lenience in a particular case. Thus, the Majority opinion’s emphasis on
    how district courts sentence does nothing to counter the point that this court
    appears to apply a severity principle when reviewing harsh sentences on appeal.
    Ultimately, I agree to a certain extent with Judge Martin, Judge Barkett, and
    other commentators who point out that we appear to be applying different
    standards of review depending on whether a sentence is challenged as too long or
    too short. I disagree, however, that these different standards of review have
    become, through misapplication, the law of this circuit. Irey articulates the only
    standard we use to review sentences for substantive reasonableness, and that
    standard applies regardless of whether a sentence imposed by the district court is
    challenged as too lenient or too harsh. Applying that standard here requires
    vacatur of Rosales-Bruno’s unreasonably harsh, far above-Guidelines sentence.
    III.
    The district court improperly calculated Rosales-Bruno’s sentence as 87
    months—a within-Guidelines sentence based on an erroneous calculation of the
    Guidelines. On remand, the court imposed the same sentence—a triple-upward
    variance. Having examined the record, the factors, and the district court’s reasons
    for imposing this sentence, I am convinced that this major variance was not
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    supported by a significantly compelling justification, nor were the Guidelines
    given any weight or consideration. Thus, I would vacate Rosales-Bruno’s sentence
    and remand for resentencing. Moreover, failure to do so here reinforces the
    perception that there is a double standard of review in the Eleventh Circuit—giving
    greater deference to sentences above the recommended Guidelines range than
    those below.
    We recognized in Irey that “there is a difference between deference and
    abdication. If there were no difference, if we did not have a meaningful role to
    play, we would never have set aside any sentences as substantively unreasonable,
    but we have.” 
    Irey, 612 F.3d at 1194
    n.20 (citation and internal quotation marks
    omitted). We have not, however, expressly set aside a sentence because it was too
    harsh. Refusing to vacate Rosales-Bruno’s sentence in these circumstances all but
    eliminates the already weakened distinction between abdication and deference
    when we review harsh sentences. Because I believe we meant what we said in
    Irey—namely, that we have a meaningful role to play in reviewing sentences for
    substantive reasonableness—and because the only way to affirm Rosales-Bruno’s
    sentence is to abdicate, I respectfully dissent.
    90