Rivas v. Fischer , 687 F.3d 514 ( 2012 )


Menu:
  • 10-1300-pr
    Rivas v. Fischer
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE SECOND CIRCUIT
    August Term, 2011
    (Argued: December 08, 2011                                                      Decided: July 9, 2012)
    Docket No. 10-1300-pr
    HECTOR RIVAS,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    BRIAN FISCHER, Superintendent,
    Sing Sing Correctional Facility,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Before: CABRANES, POOLER, and SACK, Circuit Judges.
    Petitioner-appellant Hector Rivas appeals from a judgment of the United States District
    Court for the Northern District of New York (Gary L. Sharpe, Judge), following a remand of the
    cause by this Court, dismissing as time-barred his petition for a writ of habeas corpus under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    . We agree with the District Court that Rivas’s petition was not timely filed and that he
    is not entitled to equitable tolling, but we conclude that Rivas has successfully presented a “gateway”
    showing of actual innocence under the standard set by the Supreme Court in Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
     (1995), and House v. Bell, 
    547 U.S. 518
     (2006). We further conclude, as a matter of first
    impression in this Circuit, that such a showing entitles him to an equitable exception from the
    limitations period set forth in § 2244(d). Accordingly, we reverse the judgment of the District Court
    and remand with instructions to consider the merits of Rivas’s habeas petition.
    1
    RICHARD M. LANGONE, Langone & Associates, PLLC,
    Levittown, NY, for Petitioner-Appellant.
    PRISCILLA STEWARD, Assistant Attorney General (Barbara D.
    Underwood, Solicitor General, Roseann B.
    MacKechnie, Deputy Solicitor General for Criminal
    Matters, and Lea La Ferlita, Assistant Attorney
    General, on the brief), for Eric T. Schneiderman*,
    Attorney General of the State of New York, NY, for
    Respondent-Appellee.
    JOSÉ A. CABRANES, Circuit Judge:
    The issue in this appeal is whether petitioner-appellant Hector Rivas—who is currently
    serving an indeterminate life sentence for the second-degree murder of his former girlfriend, Valerie
    Hill—should be permitted to present in federal court his claim that constitutional error at his
    criminal trial renders his current confinement unlawful. The merits of Rivas’s constitutional claims
    are not before us. Rather, we address only whether his petition for a writ of habeas corpus under
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     was timely filed, or, if untimely, whether he should nevertheless be permitted to
    pursue those claims in federal court under the circumstances here presented.
    When Congress enacted the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996
    (“AEDPA”), Pub. L. No. 104-132, 
    110 Stat. 1214
     (1996), it imposed a one-year period of limitation
    on petitioners seeking federal collateral review of state convictions pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    . See
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d).1 The Supreme Court has recognized that a “credible” and “compelling” claim
    *
    Named officials have been substituted for their predecessors pursuant to Fed. R. App. P.
    43(c)(2).
    1
    Section 2244(d) provides as follows:
    (1) A 1-year period of limitation shall apply to an application for a writ
    of habeas corpus by a person in custody pursuant to the judgment of a
    State court. The limitation period shall run from the latest of—
    (A) the date on which the judgment became final by the conclusion
    2
    of actual innocence may provide a “gateway” through other procedural barriers to habeas relief, see
    Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    , 324, 315 (1995) (successive petitions); House v. Bell, 
    547 U.S. 518
    , 521–22
    (2006) (state procedural default), but it remains an open question both in the Supreme Court and in
    this Circuit whether such a claim may allow a petitioner to circumvent AEDPA’s limitation period.
    In the years since § 2244(d) went into effect, we have heard several appeals from prisoners who have
    asserted that their claims of actual innocence should provide an equitable ground for allowing them
    to pursue habeas corpus relief notwithstanding their failure to timely file a petition. See, e.g., Doe v.
    Menefee, 
    391 F.3d 147
     (2d Cir. 2004); Whitley v. Senkowski, 
    317 F.3d 223
     (2d Cir. 2003); Lucidore v.
    N.Y. State Div. of Parole, 
    209 F.3d 107
     (2d Cir. 2000). We have thus far resisted deciding whether
    equity demands such an exception, explaining that we would only do so “in a proper case,” Whitley,
    
    317 F.3d at 225
    , “where a petitioner is able to make a credible showing of actual innocence based on
    new evidence,” Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 174
    .
    of direct review or the expiration of the time for seeking such review;
    (B) the date on which the impediment to filing an application
    created by State action in violation of the Constitution or laws of the
    United States is removed, if the applicant was prevented from filing by
    such State action;
    (C) the date on which the constitutional right asserted was initially
    recognized by the Supreme Court, if the right has been newly
    recognized by the Supreme Court and made retroactively applicable to
    cases on collateral review; or
    (D) the date on which the factual predicate of the claim or claims
    presented could have been discovered through the exercise of due
    diligence.
    (2) The time during which a properly filed application for State post-
    conviction or other collateral review with respect to the pertinent
    judgment or claim is pending shall not be counted toward any period of
    limitation under this subsection.
    3
    In this case, which returns to us following a remand to the District Court for development
    of the record, see Rivas v. Fischer, 294 F. App’x 677, 679 (2d Cir. 2008) (“Rivas II”), Rivas has raised a
    credible and compelling claim of actual innocence, as those concepts are understood in the relevant
    habeas jurisprudence. His claim is based on new information not presented to the jury that
    dramatically undermines the central forensic evidence linking him to the crime of which he was
    convicted. In sum and substance, Rivas has shown, through the essentially unchallenged testimony
    of a respected forensic pathologist, that the victim was almost certainly killed at a time when he had
    an uncontested alibi, and not earlier, as the prosecution had contended at his trial. We are not here
    called to determine whether Rivas is in fact innocent. However, on the record before us, we “cannot
    have confidence in the outcome of [Rivas’s] trial” unless we can be assured that “the trial was free of
    nonharmless constitutional error.” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315
    .
    Here presented with a “proper case,” we now conclude, as a matter of first impression in
    this Circuit, that a credible and compelling showing of actual innocence under the standard
    described by the Supreme Court in Schlup and House warrants an equitable exception to AEDPA’s
    limitation period, allowing the petitioner to have his otherwise time-barred claims heard by a federal
    court. Because Rivas has made such a showing, we reverse the decision of the United States District
    Court for the Northern District of New York (Gary L. Sharpe, Judge) dismissing his petition for
    habeas relief and remand for full consideration of his underlying constitutional claims.
    BACKGROUND
    The following background is taken from the record of Rivas’s criminal trial, his state
    collateral proceeding, and the evidentiary hearing held by the District Court on remand. Although
    we refer in the margins to relevant newspaper articles, we do not rely on them in the disposition of
    this appeal.
    4
    A.      The Murder of Valerie Hill
    At approximately 11:45 a.m. on Monday, March 30, 1987, Randall Hill (“Randall”)
    discovered the lifeless body of his twenty-eight-year-old daughter, Valerie Hill (“Hill”), on the living-
    room floor of her apartment on Hickok Avenue in Syracuse, New York. Transcript of the Trial of
    Hector Rivas (March 17, 1993) (“Trial Tr.”) at 103.
    Randall had last seen his daughter on Friday night, March 27, when the two met for dinner
    at a nearby restaurant. He later recalled that Hill seemed upset during their meeting and did not eat
    anything. 
    Id.
     at 96–98. During their conversation, Hill informed her father that she was planning to
    spend the weekend visiting a friend in the Albany area and would not return until Sunday evening.
    Id. at 99. Hill left the restaurant at approximately 8:15 p.m. on Friday. Id. at 97–98. The friend Hill
    planned to visit, Laura Adams, later testified that she called Hill “dozens of times” on Friday night
    and throughout the weekend, but never reached her, although she encountered at least one “busy”
    signal. Id. at 217–19, 221. Randall also had no success when he attempted to call Hill on Sunday
    night and again Monday morning. Id. at 99–100.
    On Monday morning, Randall went to the hospital where Hill was employed as a pediatric
    nurse (and where Randall’s wife was then admitted as a patient) and discovered that Hill had not
    reported to work. Id. at 101, 103. Concerned, he drove to Hill’s apartment, where he found her car
    parked in the driveway. Randall let himself in through the unlocked side door and discovered Hill
    lying “face down on the carpet” in her living room. She was wearing a bathrobe, which was pulled
    “up around her shoulders,” and was otherwise naked. Id. at 100–03. The belt of the bathrobe was
    wrapped around her neck. Id. at 157.
    Randall immediately called the police, as well as his son, David. Id. at 104. Arriving at the
    scene, police investigators found no signs of forced entry into Hill’s apartment, which was on the
    5
    bottom floor of a two-family house. Id. at 107, 228–29. The apartment was “very neat,” and at first
    nothing appeared to be out of order. Id. at 228. A number of cigarettes of the brand Rivas smoked
    were found in an ashtray in Hill’s kitchen. Id. at 150–51, 638. Later testing revealed that fingerprints
    on the ashtray, as well as on a bottle of wine, belonged to Rivas. Id. at 591–93.2 In addition to Rivas’s
    and Hill’s fingerprints, an unidentified set of prints was taken from the telephone. Id. at 588. Missing
    from the apartment was an airline ticket that Hill had collected from her travel agent on the
    afternoon of Friday, March 27.
    After learning from Randall and David that Hill had recently broken up with Rivas, police
    officers went to Rivas’s house in Cazenovia, a town about twenty miles southeast of Syracuse. Id. at
    235. Rivas agreed to accompany the officers to the Syracuse police station. Sergeant John D.
    Brennan later testified that Rivas appeared nervous,3 but was cooperative and did not inquire as to
    why he was being questioned. Id. at 237–28. At the police station, Rivas was taken to an
    interrogation room where police proceeded to question him for approximately twelve hours. Despite
    the fact that he was interrogated at length regarding his activities the weekend of Hill’s death, Rivas
    was never informed of his Miranda rights because, the police officers later insisted, he was not
    regarded as a suspect at that time. Trial Tr. at 239. At approximately 5:30 p.m., after over two hours
    of questioning, police informed Rivas that Hill had been killed. According to Brennan, Rivas
    exhibited no discernible reaction upon hearing this news. Id. at 247.
    Rivas, having dated Hill, had been in her apartment many times before and it was
    2
    undisputed at trial that he had been in her apartment as recently as Thursday, March 26, 1987. Id. at
    240.
    3
    However, another officer who interviewed Rivas that day, Frank Pieklik, testified at a
    pretrial motions hearing that Rivas “appeared, as I recall, quite normal.” Transcript of Feb. 24, 1993,
    Hearing (“Pretrial Hearing Tr.”) at 30 (Feb. 24, 1993).
    6
    During the interview, Rivas told the police that he had last seen Hill four days earlier, on the
    evening of Thursday, March 26, 1987, when he had gone to her house and talked to her for half an
    hour. Id. at 240. He had also driven by Hill’s apartment at 2:00 p.m. the following day, Friday, March
    27, and again approximately four hours later, at 6:00 p.m. He claimed he did not linger on either
    occasion after discovering that Hill was not home. Id. at 240–41. Rivas said that he had spent most
    of Friday evening with friends at various bars in Syracuse and Cazenovia. See Trial Exh. 1. He stated
    that he was at Coleman’s Bar (“Coleman’s”) in Syracuse from about 6:00 to 11:00 p.m. He then went
    to Albert’s Bar (“Albert’s”) in Cazenovia and stayed there until 2:00 a.m., before returning to
    Syracuse to get breakfast at an all-night diner. He finally went home and fell asleep at 4:00 a.m. Rivas
    claimed that he awoke at 11:30 a.m. on Saturday and returned to Albert’s to do some plumbing
    work. He remained for lunch and then went home to take care of some yard work. He then returned
    to Albert’s to watch Syracuse compete in the “Final Four” of the NCAA Men’s Basketball
    Tournament. He remained at Albert’s until approximately 8:00 p.m., whereupon he went to a party
    at a friend’s house until 4 a.m. on Sunday, March 29, before returning home to bed. As Rivas stated
    in the interview, many people saw him and spoke with him on Saturday night. Id..
    While Rivas was being questioned at the station, other police officers put together an
    application for a warrant to search his residence. Attached to the application was an affidavit signed
    by Officer Timothy Phinney, attesting that there was probable cause to believe that several items
    would be found in Rivas’s home, including a key to Hill’s apartment and clothing soiled with blood,
    fecal matter, or other contaminants. See Motion to Vacate Sentence Pursuant to Criminal Procedure
    Law 440.10 (“Section 440.10 Mot.”) Exhs. 1 & 2. The affidavit also stated that the Onondaga
    County Medical Examiner, Dr. Erik Mitchell, had preliminarily estimated the time of Hill’s death to
    7
    be “sometime [between] [S]aturday the 28th of March afternoon and [S]unday morning [the] 29th of
    March 1987.” Id. Exh. 2.4
    In the basement of Rivas’s house, investigators discovered a damp jacket draped over a
    clothesline. Trial Tr. 274–75. Although a search of household trash was not expressly contemplated
    by the warrant, investigators also seized and reconstructed a torn-up note, which they found in a
    trash bag in Rivas’s kitchen.5 The note was from Hill to another former boyfriend, Bob Lucas,
    expressing her thanks for their time together. See Trial Exh. 5.6 Finally, inside a bedroom closet,
    investigators observed what they described as a “shrine,” consisting of a large statue of the Virgin
    Mary surrounded by two smaller candles and a photograph of Hill. Trial Tr. at 270–74, 316.
    4
    Contemporaneous newspaper articles also reported that Mitchell had estimated the time of
    death to have been sometime late Saturday night, March 28, to early Sunday morning, March 29. See,
    e.g., Mike McAndrew, “As Wife Lay Dying, Man Found His Daughter Slain,” The Syracuse Post-
    Standard, Apr. 1, 1987, at A1 (“Onondaga County Medical Examiner Erik Mitchell has determined
    that Hill was strangled late Saturday or early Sunday, Deputy Police Chief Robert Galvin said.”);
    John Doherty, “Police Have No Clues into Slaying of Nurse,” The Syracuse Post-Standard, Apr. 1,
    1987, at B3 (“An autopsy has determined that Valerie J. Hill . . . was strangled to death with the
    cloth belt of her bathrobe, police said. The report also indicated that she died sometime Saturday or
    early morning, police said.”).
    We take judicial notice of “the fact that press coverage contained certain information, without
    regard to the truth of [its] contents.” Staehr v. Hartford Fin. Servs. Grp., 
    547 F.3d 406
    , 425 (2d Cir.
    2008).
    Rivas later argued that the note had been recovered from Hill’s apartment and not his. See
    5
    Mem. Supp. § 440.10 Mot. at 34.
    6
    The note was admitted at trial over Rivas’s objection. On direct appeal, the Appellate
    Division of the New York Supreme Court held that the note should have been suppressed because
    it was not within the scope of the warrant and did not fall under the “plain view” exception, but that
    its improper admission at trial constituted harmless error. See People v. Rivas, 
    626 N.Y.S.2d 640
    , 641
    (4th Dep’t 1995). Because in reviewing a claim of actual innocence we consider “all the evidence
    . . . without regard to whether it would necessarily be admitted under rules of admissibility that
    would govern at trial,” House, 
    547 U.S. at 538
     (internal quotation marks omitted), we need not ignore
    the contents of the note.
    8
    Although photographs were taken of the trash bag that contained the note, as well as other items in
    Rivas’s house, no photograph was taken of the “shrine.” See 
    id.
    Despite a thorough investigation, neither Rivas nor anyone else was charged with, or even
    publicly identified as a suspect in, Hill’s murder, which remained a “cold case” for five years.
    B.      The Indictment of Hector Rivas
    In January 1992, William J. Fitzpatrick was sworn in as District Attorney of Onondaga
    County, having previously served in that office as an Assistant District Attorney. According to his
    biography on the Onondaga County District Attorney’s website, when he was Chief Assistant
    District Attorney, “Fitzpatrick specialized in re-opening cases that had previously been considered
    inactive and, with the cooperation of various police agencies in Onondaga County and the state of
    New York, he brought numerous killers to justice in cases that were thought to be un-winnable.” See
    “Meet the DA,” Office of the Onondaga District Attorney,
    www.ongovda.net/section/meet_the_da/ (last visited May 30, 2012).
    On November 22, 1992, nearly six years after the murder of Valerie Hill, a grand jury
    indicted Rivas on charges of murder in the second degree and aggravated sexual abuse. It is not clear
    what, if any, new evidence might have come to light that would lead authorities to pursue, and the
    grand jury to indict, Rivas nearly six years after the murder. In its Bill of Particulars, responding to a
    defense request for the date when Rivas was first identified as a possible perpetrator of the crime,
    the prosecution stated, simply: “It is very difficult to respond to this request. Defendant was indicted
    in November 1992.” See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, (N.D.N.Y. Sept. 18, 2009), ECF No. 55-2
    at 56 (Answering Affidavit).
    Rivas contends that, sometime after becoming District Attorney, Fitzpatrick approached
    Mitchell, the medical examiner, and requested that he review Hill’s autopsy report with an eye
    9
    toward expanding the time of death to include Friday, March 27, 1987, when Rivas’s alibi was not as
    strong. According to Rivas, at the time this alleged request was made, Mitchell “was under criminal
    investigation by DA Fitzpatrick’s office, as well as by the Department of Health and the Department
    of Environmental Conservation” for varieties of misconduct, including improper disposal of waste
    and stealing and mishandling of body parts. Appellant’s Br. at 8.
    The State concedes that Mitchell was accused of various forms of misconduct as early as
    1989, see Appellee’s Br. at 24, and does not dispute that he was under investigation by the State
    Department of Health at the time he testified against Rivas. It is also undisputed that Mitchell
    resigned his office in November 1993, in part to avoid prosecution by the District Attorney’s Office.
    See Remand Hearing Tr. at 205.7 It is not clear from the record, however, at what point the District
    Attorney’s Office opened its criminal investigation into Mitchell’s conduct.8 Though Rivas’s state
    post-conviction attorneys submitted requests under New York’s Freedom of Information Law
    7
    Mitchell’s decision to resign was widely reported in the local newspapers. See, e.g., John
    O’Brien & Todd Lightly, “DA: Mitchell ‘Went Too Far’: Medical Examiner, Accused of
    Mishandling Body Parts, Quits Under Pressure,” The Syracuse Post-Standard, Nov. 20, 1993, at A1
    (“Thursday, Fitzpatrick told Mitchell’s lawyer that if Mitchell resigned, the criminal investigation
    would end.”). In the separate investigation by the State Department of Health, Mitchell was later
    cleared of wrongdoing. See Jim O’Hara, “Ex-Medical Examiner Cleared of Wrongdoing: Mitchell
    was Accused of Improperly Harvesting Body Parts,” Syracuse Post-Standard, Nov. 16, 1995, at B1.
    8
    The investigation was triggered when two subordinates publicly accused Mitchell of
    misconduct. These self-styled “whistleblowers” submitted statements that were included in the
    record of Rivas’s initial appeal to this Court. One subordinate claimed to have witnessed Mitchell
    “slant the interpretation of evidence and/or exclude evidence to serve his predetermined
    objectives,” and averred that “Dr. Mitchell’s opinions and interpretations of evidence cannot be
    trusted as impartial or accurate.” Aff. of William R. Sawyer at 5–7 (quoted in Joint App’x at 337 n.7).
    Another—who was himself fired at the same time Mitchell resigned, and later had his medical
    license revoked for persistent drug and alcohol abuse—claimed that Mitchell had instructed him to
    fashion his autopsy reports in a way that would allow for manipulation of the case findings and had
    remarked that “the medical examiners worked for Onondaga County and were there to serve the
    needs of the District Attorney’s Office.” Letter of David A. Rigle at 16, (quoted in Joint App’x at
    337 n.7).
    10
    requesting information regarding the investigation, the County provided only one page (a press
    release) in response, stating that other materials were non-final agency records and attorney work
    product. See Remand Hearing Tr. at 208. Rivas’s attorneys also persuaded a state Supreme Court
    justice to conduct an in camera review of the County’s investigation of Mitchell in 1998, but the judge
    determined that the documents would not be provided to Rivas.9
    In any case, whether it was out of an “eager[ness] to please the prosecutor,” Appellant’s Br.
    at 5, as Rivas suggests, or based upon an independent reevaluation of the medical record, it does
    appear that sometime in 1992, Mitchell reconsidered his estimate of the time of death. The grand
    jury’s indictment alleges that Rivas killed Hill “on or about” Friday, March 27, 1987. The State has
    identified no new evidence that came to light between March 1987 and November 1992 that led to
    the indictment.10 As far as the record reflects, therefore, the only thing that changed during that span
    of time was the medical examiner’s estimation of the time of death.
    C.      The Trial of Hector Rivas
    Rivas was tried before a jury in March 1993, with now-deceased Onondaga County Court
    Judge J. Kevin Mulroy presiding. He was represented by Richard J. Calle, an attorney then practicing
    in Queens, New York. Rivas, who had moved downstate, hired Calle because Calle happened to be
    representing him in a civil arbitration matter in the fall of 1992, around the time the District
    Attorney’s Office renewed its investigation of him in connection with Hill’s murder. See Section
    9
    The judge did, however, inform one of Rivas’s attorneys that Fitzpatrick was scheduled to
    attend a meeting with a legislative committee regarding allegations against Mitchell on April 13,
    1993, just over two weeks after the conclusion of Rivas’s trial. See Remand Hearing Tr. 117–19.
    10
    It appears that the only new evidence prosecutors employed at Rivas’s trial was the
    testimony of a former friend, who stated that Rivas made an incriminating statement to the effect
    that he “didn’t mean to do it” shortly after Hill’s death. See Trial Tr. at 816–17. However,
    prosecutors evidently did not learn of this alleged statement until after the indictment was returned,
    when the witness’s girlfriend came forward. See 
    id.
     at 828–29.
    11
    440.10 Hearing Tr. at 11. Calle did not work out of a formal business office and, on the occasions
    that he met with Rivas prior to Rivas’s incarceration, those meetings were typically held in Rivas’s
    sister’s apartment or at a local diner.11
    1.      The People’s Direct Case
    The People’s case was almost entirely circumstantial.12 District Attorney Fitzpatrick, who
    tried the case himself, presented Rivas as an obsessive, jilted lover who harassed Hill following their
    breakup and was pushed over the edge when he learned that Hill was planning to take a trip to the
    Bahamas alone. Trial Tr. at 1127–28. As Fitzpatrick summarized: “Hector Rivas stalked this woman
    [for] two and a half months, and finally strangled her and killed her in a jealous rage on March the
    27th of 1987.” Id. at 1069.
    Trial testimony and exhibits supported at least part of this theory. Friends of Hill testified
    that Rivas persisted in contacting Hill on a regular basis, even after she had made clear that she did
    not want to continue or revive their relationship. In addition, the prosecution introduced dozens of
    notes, cards, and letters that Rivas had written to Hill in the months between their breakup and her
    death. See id. at 1092–97. Police investigators also testified regarding Rivas’s strange behavior when
    he was first questioned, including his lack of reaction when he was told that Hill had died. Id. at 247.
    Several witnesses testified regarding Rivas’s whereabouts on Friday, March 27, 1987, the
    alleged date of the murder. Taken together, the testimony of these witnesses suggested that there
    may have been a window of time during which Rivas could have gone to Hill’s house and strangled
    Calle was later indicted and convicted on federal charges of obstruction of justice and mail
    11
    fraud unrelated to his representation of Rivas. He was disbarred from the practice of law in New
    York State nine years after Rivas’s trial. See In re Calle, 
    749 N.Y.S.2d 528
     (1st Dep’t 2002).
    12
    Several of Rivas’s fingerprints had been found on several items in Hill’s house, including
    on a bottle of wine. However, the prosecution acknowledged at trial that Rivas had been in the
    apartment many times before, including in the week prior to Hill’s death.
    12
    her while en route from Coleman’s in Syracuse to Albert’s in Cazenovia, about thirty minutes away.
    Prosecution witnesses testified that Rivas left Coleman’s at around 9:00 or 9:30 p.m. and did not
    arrive at Albert’s until sometime between 11:00 p.m. and 12:30 a.m. 
    Id.
     at 461–63, 439–40, 849. One
    witness, a clerk at a liquor store near Hill’s apartment, testified that he saw Rivas enter the store
    between 9:30 and 10:00 p.m. 
    Id.
     at 496–99. Two witnesses testified that they observed Rivas
    smoking a cigarette in his car, which was parked outside Hill’s house, sometime between 11:00 p.m.
    and 12:00 a.m. that night—around the time that the prosecution theorized Hill was murdered. 
    Id.
     at
    533–34, 936–37.13
    Beyond making the case that Rivas had motive and the opportunity to murder Hill on Friday
    night, Fitzpatrick deftly turned Rivas’s alibi for Saturday against him. Through witness testimony and
    in his opening and summation, Fitzpatrick suggested that Rivas had contrived to be seen by many
    people at all hours of the day Saturday and into Sunday morning, so that he would have an alibi in
    the event that police focused on Saturday evening as the time of death. See, e.g., id. at 1084, 1124. For
    example, Elizabeth Lewis, one of Hill’s friends, testified that Rivas sought her out at a party Saturday
    evening and remarked that “[i]t’s too bad Valerie’s not feeling well, that she can’t be here tonight.”
    Id. at 780. The implication, according to the prosecution, was that Rivas wanted to plant the idea in
    Lewis’s mind that Hill was alive on Saturday evening, knowing that he was at that very moment
    cementing his alibi. See id. at 1124.14
    13
    One of these witnesses, Hill’s upstairs neighbor, was in fact called by Rivas as a defense
    witness, apparently because she had initially told police that she had seen Hill in their shared
    basement on Saturday morning, March 28. However, under cross examination by Fitzpatrick, she
    readily conceded that she was mistaken in her initial statement to police and had in fact seen Hill on
    Friday morning, March 27. Trial Tr. 928–29, 932.
    Lewis did not testify that Rivas claimed to have spoken to Hill on Saturday. However, it
    14
    was her sense, six years later, that he was trying to convey the impression that he had. This
    13
    Similarly, Fitzpatrick emphasized a seemingly exculpatory item of evidence: a Stephen King
    novel that Hill had checked out from the Cazenovia Public Library, and which a witness had seen in
    the back seat of Hill’s car on Friday afternoon. See id. at 190–91. The book was returned to the
    library’s drop box sometime between Saturday afternoon and Sunday morning, suggesting that Hill
    (the most likely person to have returned it) was alive at least as late as Saturday afternoon. But
    Fitzpatrick theorized that it was Rivas who returned the book, hoping that it would cause
    investigators to believe that Hill was not killed on Friday night, when his alibi was relatively weaker.
    Id. at 54–55, 1085.15
    Finally, the People elicited testimony from Joe Fields, an acquaintance of Rivas, who
    encountered him at Albert’s bar approximately three weeks after the murder. Rivas had been
    drinking heavily and was crying over Hill’s death. According to Fields, at a moment when Rivas did
    not know that Fields was in earshot, he said to himself, “Valerie, Valerie, I didn’t mean to do it.” Id.
    at 817–18.
    2.      The Medical Examiner’s Testimony
    No matter how much circumstantial evidence the prosecution could amass tending to link
    Rivas to the crime, however, it had no case unless it could prove that Hill died on Friday night.
    Fitzpatrick himself acknowledged that Rivas’s alibi was “complete—for Saturday night.” Id. at
    55. Indeed, it was the People’s position that Rivas’s alibi was so strong on Saturday night precisely
    purported plan backfired, because Lewis—unlike Rivas—knew that Hill was planning to be out of
    town that weekend. Rivas’s comment therefore struck her as odd. Trial Tr. 780.
    15
    As Rivas pointed out in his state collateral motion, however, Hill had requested the book
    through an interlibrary loan and all of the markings on the book indicated it was from a different
    library, in Utica. Thus, Rivas (belatedly) argued, only Hill would have known to return it to
    Cazenovia library and not the original library. Furthermore, although the prosecution’s fingerprint
    expert examined the book and found three prints that he could not identify, he apparently did not
    recover any of Rivas’s prints from the book. See Trial Tr. at 588.
    14
    because he had concocted it, having murdered Hill the night before. Therefore, the prosecution’s
    case rested almost entirely on the testimony of Mitchell, the medical examiner, to persuade the jury
    that Hill died on Friday night and not on Saturday as Mitchell had initially determined.
    Mitchell testified that, when he first observed Hill’s body on the afternoon of Monday,
    March 30, it “was in rigor,” and that by the time he performed an autopsy later that day, “[s]he was
    coming out of rigor.” Id. at 869, 872.16 He cautioned that no medical examiner can pinpoint with
    certainty the time of a person’s death, id. at 886, but stated that, based on his observations of the
    body, there was nothing inconsistent with Hill having died on either the night of Saturday, March
    28, or Friday, March 27. Id. at 888. However, taking into account a number of external
    factors—namely, that Hill’s cat was seen outside on Saturday morning; that Hill had not been seen
    after Friday; that she never contacted the friend whom she intended to visit that weekend; that her
    car had apparently not been driven since Friday; and that she had not been in touch with her father
    despite the fact that his wife was gravely ill—Mitchell opined that “it’s more likely that she died
    Friday night, to possibly very early Saturday morning” than on Saturday night. Trial Tr. 889–90. He
    also stated his opinion “within a reasonable degree of medical certainty” that Hill died as a result of
    being strangled. Id. at 891.17
    Confronted on cross-examination with contemporaneous newspaper accounts that reported
    on his preliminary findings, Mitchell admitted that he “[q]uite possibly” had estimated at some point
    16
    In the “scene investigation” report that Mitchell prepared and signed at the time of his
    initial inquiry into the cause and time of Hill’s death, he reported that he had found Hill’s body in
    “full rigor, with fixed anterior livor.” See Remand Hearing Tr. 75–76 (emphasis added).
    Whether by design or oversight, Mitchell did not testify that his opinion on Hill’s time of
    17
    death was “within a reasonable degree of medical certainty.” Trial Tr. at 891.
    15
    that Hill died late on Saturday night or early Sunday morning. Id. at 895–96.18 Mitchell also conceded
    that, when he testified before the grand jury in November 1992, he had stated that it was merely “on
    the outside edge of [ ] possibility” that Hill could have been murdered on Friday night. Id. at 907. At
    trial, however, he insisted that he had never “tied [himself]” to a Saturday night estimate. Id. at 895.
    He stressed that the onset and relaxation of rigor mortis was highly variable and could be slowed,
    for example, by cold temperatures, id. at 905–06. Although Mitchell thus acknowledged that in most
    cases rigor mortis relaxes within twenty-four to forty-eight hours (which would put Hill’s time of
    death somewhere between Saturday and Sunday afternoon), he suggested that the cool temperatures
    in Hill’s apartment could have retarded the process.
    On redirect examination, Mitchell explained that, when he testified before the grand jury
    several months earlier, he had not reviewed “some of [his] notes and slides.” Id. at 915. Having had
    the opportunity to review the “slides” before trial, he noticed in them “some decomposition to the
    brain.” Id. This, he stated, “tends to push the [time] limits further out.” Id.19
    18
    Although Calle attempted to impeach Mitchell with newspaper articles suggesting that
    Mitchell had initially estimated the time of death to be Friday night, he did not refer to the police
    affidavit supporting the application to search Rivas’s residence, which stated that Mitchell had
    preliminarily estimated the time of Hill’s death to be “sometime [between] [S]aturday the 28th of
    March afternoon and [S]unday morning [the] 29th of March 1987,” Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 2. See
    Section 440.10 Hearing Tr. at 98.
    19
    Rivas contends that Mitchell committed perjury when he testified that he had examined
    “brain slides,” because the medical examiner’s file did not, in fact, contain any such slides. The state
    concedes that there were no “brain slides”—that is, sectional slides containing actual brain tissue. It
    argues, however, that there were in fact two photographic slides containing images of Hill’s brain,
    and that Mitchell may have been referring to those slides in his testimony.
    We need not, and therefore do not, address Rivas’s allegation that Mitchell committed
    perjury. We note, however, that Fitzpatrick specifically characterized the slides in question as
    “autopsy sectional slides” in his closing argument. Trial Tr. at 1082–83. Furthermore, Rivas’s expert,
    Dr. Cyril Wecht, has testified that a forensic pathologist would “not use the word slide
    synonymously with a photograph.” Remand Hearing Tr. at 27. In any case, Wecht has also testified
    16
    3.      Belated Disclosure of Exculpatory Evidence
    At the close of the People’s case, Fitzpatrick disclosed the existence of an August 1988
    affidavit from one Joe Morgan, in which Morgan attested that an individual named Patsy Barricella
    had admitted to Morgan that he (Baricella) murdered Hill. Trial Tr. at 947–48.20 Recognizing that
    this evidence was “exculpatory without a doubt,” id. at 984, the trial judge allowed Calle, Rivas’s
    attorney, to decide whether to adjourn and attempt to call Morgan or Barricella as witnesses, or
    instead to bring out the information contained in the affidavits by examining the Syracuse police
    officer who had interviewed Morgan. Calle opted to draw the information out of the police officer,
    Michael Ostuni. Id. at 987. According to Ostuni, Morgan claimed that he had a conversation with his
    friend and neighbor Barricella in March 1988, at which time Barricella confessed to killing “the girl
    on Hickok Avenue.” Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 8. In addition, Barricella had, according to Morgan,
    driven by the crime scene several times as police were investigating Hill’s murder and was stopped
    by police as a result. (Indeed, a contemporaneous police report revealed that Barricella was stopped
    by police after driving by the crime scene repeatedly. See Section 440.10 Mot. Exhs. 9 & 10.)
    However, on cross-examination by the District Attorney, Ostuni also testified that Morgan was a
    con artist and career criminal who had contacted the police from a county jail cell, demanding
    release as a quid pro quo for cooperation. Trial Tr. at 998–1000. Ostuni further testified that Barricella
    was known to be “mildly mentally retarded.” Id. at 1001.
    that, even if Mitchell had examined “brain slides” (that is, sectional slides), such a review is “totally
    unreliable” as a means of determining the time of death, because the sections of the brain contained
    in such slides continue to decompose for up to ten days after the brain is placed in a formalin bath
    for preservation. See Aff. of Cyril H. Wecht Supp. Section 440.10 Mot. at 6.
    20
    Though it is unclear when Fitzpatrick first became aware of or obtained Morgan’s affidavit
    itself, the trial transcript suggests that he was in possession of at least some documents relating to
    Morgan before opening statements were made, and thus well before this information was turned
    over to the defense. See Trial Tr. at 65.
    17
    4.      Rivas’s Direct Case
    Beyond the testimony of Ostuni, Rivas’s direct case was underwhelming. As Calle later
    testified, he did not appreciate at trial that the precise time of Hill’s death was important because he
    felt that Rivas had a strong alibi throughout the entire weekend. He therefore never considered
    calling an expert forensic pathologist to challenge Mitchell’s adjusted findings. See Section 440.10
    Hearing Tr. at 85, 87. He did attempt to establish that Hill was alive on Saturday by calling a
    prosecution witness, Hill’s upstairs neighbor, to read from an affidavit in which she had stated that
    she had seen Hill in their shared basement that morning. However, on cross-examination by
    Fitzpatrick, the witness readily conceded that she had been mistaken in her affidavit and had in fact
    seen Hill on Friday morning, not the following day. See Trial Tr. at 927–932. Calle also attempted to
    establish Rivas’s alibi by calling a single witness who claimed to have seen Rivas at Albert’s in
    Cazenovia as early as 7:30 p.m. on Friday. Id. at 967. Finally, he called a witness who testified that
    Rivas was acting normally on Saturday night. Id. at 974. Rivas did not testify in his own defense, and
    claims that Calle never informed him of his right to do so. Section 440.10 Hearing Tr. at 17–18.
    5.      Summations
    In his closing argument, Calle argued that the Hill murder had been solved backwards: The
    police and the District Attorney’s Office had decided at the outset that Rivas was the killer and then
    set out to find, or fabricate, the proof of the murder from there, ignoring other potential leads along
    the way. Trial Tr. at 1044. With respect to the time of death, Calle argued that Mitchell had to stretch
    science beyond the breaking point to opine at trial that it was more likely that Hill had been killed on
    Friday than on Saturday, when Mitchell had previously testified before the grand jury that a Friday
    time of death was only “on the outside limits of possibility.” Id. at 1062. Calle did not explicitly
    challenge Mitchell’s credibility or suggest that he might be beholden to the District Attorney’s
    18
    Office. Indeed, Rivas claims that neither he nor Calle were aware of the investigations into Mitchell’s
    conduct at the time of the trial, despite their widespread publicity in the weeks leading up to the trial,
    apparently because they both then lived downstate. See § 2254 Petition at iv; Remand Hearing Tr. at
    271–72.
    Fitzpatrick, in his summation, defended Mitchell’s estimates:
    [A]s [Dr. Mitchell] told the grand jury, rigor mortis, the stiffening of the
    body after death, normally begins to pass off within 24 to 48 hours. If
    we were looking at a calendar, this would put the normal time of death
    or the normal median time of death sometime Saturday afternoon.
    Could it have been 16, 17, 18 hours earlier? Absolutely. Absolutely.
    Heating conditions refer, first of all, to 75 degrees. It wasn’t the
    temperature of the house. The temperature of the house was 62 degrees.
    . . . Basement underneath her, cold floor. And the nights as you might
    expect, in March of 1987 were cold as well.
    Trial Tr. at 1082–83.21 Furthermore, Fitzpatrick argued, Mitchell had “had a chance to review
    autopsy sectional slides of the brain,” id., which tended to expand the range of possible times of
    death. This review, Fitzpatrick claimed, combined with the external indications Mitchell had
    identified, had led Mitchell to opine that it was most likely that Hill died on Friday, March 27.
    Summarizing the evidence against Rivas, Fitzpatrick theorized that Rivas had paid Hill a visit
    on Friday night after he left Coleman’s bar, and had brought over a bottle of rum and a bottle of
    21
    In fact, the temperature of the apartment was never recorded and Hill was lying on a
    carpeted floor. The record also reveals that the week of Hill’s death was unusually warm. One
    witness told police that the last time she had seen Hill, Hill was sunbathing in her backyard. Section
    440.10 Mot. Exh. 24. Another witness stated that she had her window open late Saturday night,
    when she heard a woman’s scream. Id. Exh. 4.
    Parenthetically, we note that, according to the National Climatic Data Center, the mean
    temperature in Syracuse, NY, on March 27, 1987, was 51E Fahrenheit, with a high of 61E and a low
    of 40E. On March 28, the temperature ranged from 37–65E with a mean of 51E. And on Sunday,
    March 29, the day before Hill’s body was discovered, the high temperature was 74E and the low 36E
    with a mean of 55E. See Local Climatological Data, Monthly Summary for Syracuse, NY, March
    1987, available at http://www7.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html?_finish=0.400803217488396 (last
    visited July 3, 2012).
    19
    wine in hopes that the two could mend their relationship. When he discovered that Hill not only did
    not want to reunite with him, but was also planning a trip to the Bahamas alone, he flew into a rage
    and strangled her. Then, realizing he needed to cover up the crime, he got rid of the airline ticket
    (but left an ashtray full of his cigarettes), and, on the way to his car, took Hill’s library book from the
    back seat of her car, intending to return it the next day to make it appear as though Hill were still
    alive. He then crafted a tight alibi for the rest of the weekend. Id. at 1125–30.
    The jury deliberated for eight hours over the course of one day, during which time it asked
    for further instructions on the meaning of “reasonable doubt.” Id. at 1188. At approximately 10:45
    p.m. on March 25, 1993, nearly six years to the day after Valerie Hill was killed, Hector Rivas was
    found guilty of second-degree murder. He was subsequently sentenced on May 12, 1993, to an
    indeterminate term of imprisonment of twenty-five years to life.
    D.      State Post-Conviction Proceedings
    Rivas, with the assistance of new counsel, appealed his conviction to the Appellate Division
    of the New York Supreme Court, claiming, inter alia, that certain papers seized from his home on
    March 30, 1987—including the torn-up note from Hill to her former boyfriend—should have been
    suppressed; that police testimony regarding his statements and demeanor during his interrogation
    should have been excluded; that he was deprived of a fair trial by the belated disclosure of the Joe
    Morgan affidavit; and that the verdict was against the weight of the evidence. On April 28, 1995, the
    Appellate Division issued a decision unanimously affirming Rivas’s conviction. People v. Rivas, 
    214 A.D.2d 996
     (4th Dep’t 1995). Although the Appellate Division held that the note should have been
    excluded, it concluded that admission of the evidence was harmless. Id. at 996. The panel rejected
    the remainder of Rivas’s claims on appeal. Id. at 996–97. Rivas’s application for leave to appeal to
    20
    the New York Court of Appeals was denied on August 15, 1995. People v. Rivas, 
    86 N.Y.2d 801
    (1995) (table).22
    Thereafter, with the assistance of yet another lawyer, Rivas filed a motion to vacate the
    judgment of conviction pursuant to 
    N.Y. Criminal Procedure Law § 440.10
    , which provides the
    means of collateral attack on a criminal judgment in New York state courts. In that application,
    Rivas alleged that he had been the victim of a “concerted effort to convict that was severed from
    concerns over actual guilt very early on in this investigation and was orchestrated by the District
    Attorney himself, William J. Fitzpatrick, who personally prosecuted this case.” Affirmation of H.
    Mitchell Schuman in Support of Section 440.10 Mot. at 3.
    Principal among Rivas’s allegations was that Mitchell, the medical examiner, had altered his
    original estimate of the time of Hill’s death in order to satisfy the District Attorney in hopes of
    avoiding prosecution for alleged criminal misconduct. 
    Id.
     at 4–7. Rivas claimed not to have known
    about the investigation of Mitchell and his office until after the trial, when Mitchell was indeed
    forced to resign to avoid prosecution by Fitzpatrick’s office. 
    Id. at 6
    . Additionally, Rivas claimed to
    have discovered only after the trial that, despite Mitchell’s testimony that he had examined “slides”
    in coming to the conclusion that Hill most likely died on the night of Friday, March 27, 1987, and
    despite Fitzpatrick’s characterization of these slides in his summation as “autopsy sectional slides,”
    there were in fact no sectional slides of Hill’s brain in the medical examiner’s file. 
    Id.
     at 6–7.
    Rivas also pointed to “new evidence,” in the form of an affidavit by Dr. Cyril H. Wecht, an
    expert in forensic pathology, who attested that Mitchell’s calculations of the cause of death were
    “misguided,” and that, in his expert opinion, “based upon a reasonable degree of medical certainty,
    Rivas also filed an application for a writ of error coram nobis, which was denied by the
    22
    Appellate Division on September 27, 1996. People v. Rivas, 
    647 N.Y.S.2d 648
     (4th Dep’t 1997)
    (Table).
    21
    . . . the length of time between the death of Valerie J. Hill and the time she was found was less than
    48 hours, and more likely less than 36 hours.” Affirmation of Cyril H. Wecht in Support of Section
    440.10 Mot. (emphasis in original). In other words, according to Wecht, Hill most likely died
    between 3:30 p.m. on Saturday, March 28, and 3:30 a.m. on Sunday, March 29.
    In addition, Rivas alleged that a significant amount of exculpatory material was withheld
    from the defense at trial. Most saliently for our purposes, Rivas claimed that he never received an
    affidavit taken from one of Hill’s neighbors, Mary Lazarski, and a police report memorializing an
    interview with another unnamed neighbor. In her affidavit, Lazarski attested that, late in the evening
    of March 28 or early in the morning of March 29, while she was watching “Saturday Night Live” on
    television, she heard through her open window “a loud shriek or scream [that] seemed to cut off.”
    Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 4. She stated that “[t]he voice was a woman’s voice and it sounded like
    someone was in trouble and not like anyone kidding around.” 
    Id.
     Lazarski’s husband also signed an
    affidavit confirming that his wife woke him up and told him about the incident that night. 
    Id.
     The
    unidentified neighbor told police that he heard a dog barking and a car speed away from the vicinity
    of Hill’s house at around 11:00 Saturday night. 
    Id.
    Beyond these documents, Rivas claimed that the prosecution failed to disclose: (1) a police
    report regarding an interview with a neighbor who had seen Hill intimately embracing a man other
    than Rivas a few days prior to her murder, and another interview stating that Hill had been involved
    in an intimate relationship with a man other than Rivas at the time of her death; (2) information that
    one of Hill’s neighbors had previously been arrested for burglary and was known to peer through
    windows in the neighborhood;23 (3) information that an employee at the hospital where Hill worked
    This neighbor appears to have been a member of the family who lived upstairs from Hill at
    23
    250 Hickok Avenue. The individual was interviewed by police in connection with Hill’s murder and
    admitted to having been arrested and charged in 1985 with a burglary of 248 Hickok Avenue, the
    22
    had been disciplined after Hill made a complaint against him; (4) information regarding a purported
    “sexual deviant” who was residing in Hill’s neighborhood; (5) the fact that one of the prosecution
    witnesses had a prior conviction; and (6) the affidavit stating that Patsy Barricella, not Rivas, had
    committed the crime. Section 440.10 Mot. at 7–10.
    Finally, Rivas raised a claim of ineffective assistance of counsel, alleging that his trial
    attorney, Calle, had failed to apprise him of his right to testify in his own defense, and had failed to
    “investigate or challenge the false and misleading testimony given by the medical examiner at trial.”
    Mem. Law. Supp. Section 440.10 Mot. at 34–40.
    On April 7, 2000, Acting Onondaga County Supreme Court Justice John J. Brunetti
    conducted an evidentiary hearing in connection with Rivas’s § 440.10 motion. At the close of the
    hearing, Justice Brunetti issued an oral ruling denying relief with respect to Rivas’s Brady claims and
    one portion of his ineffective-assistance claim, finding that Rivas had not borne his burden of
    persuasion on those points. See Section 440.10 Tr. at 135–41. After taking the remaining issues
    under advisement and receiving post-hearing briefs from the parties, Justice Brunetti issued a written
    decision on September 8, 2000, denying relief on the remaining claims. See People v. Rivas, No. 92-
    2794 (N.Y. Sup. Ct. Sept. 8, 2000).
    apartment later occupied by Hill. (He was ultimately convicted of petit larceny, according to the
    report.) When questioned about his whereabouts the weekend of Hill’s death, he mentioned having
    “pass[ed] by his parents house at 250 Hickok Avenue.” Section 440.10 Mot. Exh. 18. Although it
    appears that the individual had an alibi for the relevant time period, the very fact that he was
    questioned by police and had previously been arrested for suspicious criminal activity involving
    Hill’s apartment, if disclosed to the defense, would likely have provided grounds for challenging the
    credibility of his family members, who testified against Rivas.
    23
    E.      Federal Habeas Proceedings
    1.       Initial Decision and Appeal
    On December 12, 2001, Rivas filed a petition for a writ of habeas corpus pursuant to
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    . In it, he raised substantially the same claims that he had advanced before the state
    court in his § 440.10 motion. Principally, he claimed that: (1) he was entitled to a new trial in light of
    newly discovered evidence of misconduct and false testimony by the medical examiner; (2) the
    prosecution failed to provide him with Brady material; and (3) his trial counsel was grossly
    ineffective. § 2254 Petition at i–ii.
    The District Court dismissed Rivas’s claims as time-barred under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d). See
    Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, ECF No. 21 (N.D.N.Y. Jan. 28, 2005) (“Rivas I”). By summary order
    dated October 2, 2008, we vacated the judgment of the District Court, concluding that we were
    unable to review its determination that the petition was untimely because it had not developed a
    record as to whether a duly diligent person in Rivas’s circumstances would have been able to
    discover the factual predicates for his claims more than a year prior to his filing the petition. We
    therefore remanded the cause to the District Court with instructions that it “make specific factual
    findings” regarding the timeliness of Rivas’s claims, noting that, in order to be timely, Rivas’s claims
    must not have been discoverable through the exercise of due diligence prior to May 8, 1999, one
    year prior to the actual filing of his petition (not including periods of time during which the statute
    of limitations was tolled). See Rivas II, 294 F. App’x at 679.
    In addition, we instructed that, should the District Court determine that Rivas had not
    satisfied the requirements of § 2244(d)(1)(D), it “should then make specific findings as to whether
    Rivas has established a credible claim of actual innocence” under applicable Supreme Court and
    Second Circuit standards. Rivas II, 294 F. App’x at 679. We specifically stated that “the District
    24
    Court may wish to examine the ‘likely credibility of the affiants,’” namely Wecht and Calle, and “the
    relative strength of the State’s case against Rivas in light of any credibility determinations that the
    District Court sees fit to make.” Id.
    2.      Proceedings on Remand
    Pursuant to our remand order, an evidentiary hearing was conducted by Magistrate Judge
    David Peebles on September 21 and 22, 2009.24 The magistrate judge opened the hearing by
    expressing his view that, “although actual innocence is at play, the primary focus [of the hearing] is
    on the timeliness question”—that is, whether the “new evidence” upon which Rivas purported to
    base his claims was known, or could have been discovered through the exercise of due diligence,
    prior to May 8, 1999. Remand Hearing Tr. at 9.25 Much of the testimony at the hearing before the
    magistrate judge therefore focused on the efforts of Rivas and his attorneys to track down the
    information underlying his claims.
    The Court did, however, hear testimony from Wecht, the forensic pathologist whose
    affidavit called into doubt Mitchell’s time-of-death estimate. Wecht testified that he had reviewed the
    medical examiner’s file, as well as the relevant trial testimony, and concluded “with a reasonable
    degree of medical certainty,” that “this death could not have occurred longer than 48 hours prior to
    24
    At the start of the hearing, the magistrate judge disclosed that, like Judge Mulroy, who
    presided over Rivas’s trial, he had served with Fitzpatrick in the Onondaga County District
    Attorney’s Office, and that (again like Judge Mulroy) he had selected Fitzpatrick to be the godfather
    of his daughter. However, he felt that this relationship—which had apparently become less familiar
    over time—would not prevent him from fairly adjudicating the case. Rivas did not seek his recusal.
    See Remand Hearing Tr. at 3–5.
    25
    Indeed, the magistrate judge refused, for example, to admit evidence relating to the results
    of DNA tests on items taken from Hill’s apartment that purportedly included only one “match” to
    Rivas, stating “I have already made it clear I’m not retrying the murder case.” Remand Hearing Tr. at
    114.
    25
    the time that Mitchell examined the body on Monday, March 30 at 3:30 p.m.” Id. at 36.26 Wecht
    arrived at this conclusion primarily because Mitchell had written in his scene investigation report
    that the body was in “full rigor” when he examined it and a body generally cannot remain in “full
    rigor” more than forty-eight hours after death. Id. at 33–34; see note 13, ante.27 Furthermore, Wecht
    noted that the autopsy report contained no reference to discoloration around the abdominal wall,
    which would generally be found in a body that has been lying face-down on the ground for longer
    than forty-eight hours. Id. at 34–35.
    Wecht further testified that the reasons Mitchell had provided at trial for “push[ing] the time
    limits further out” were without scientific basis. With respect to Mitchell’s claim that cool
    temperature conditions in Hill’s apartment could have delayed the onset and relaxation of rigor,
    Wecht testified that, though a colder environment may slow down the development of rigor mortis,
    the temperature in Hill’s apartment could not have been low enough to make a difference:
    Now if you have a particularly cold weather as you can have in Syracuse
    in the wintertime, that’s a different matter, a body found in your snowy
    mountains, but not a body, I don’t care if it’s 60 to 62 degrees or 70
    degrees, not going to make any difference. You’re not going to have a
    body in full rigor 48 hours after the person has died. You’re just not
    going to have that.
    Id. at 34. With respect to Mitchell’s claim that he had observed decomposition in Hill’s brain when
    he examined “slides” in his file, Wecht testified that such decomposition could not be observed in
    26
    Wecht clarified that, in his opinion, Hill “most likely [died] within 36 hours prior to [the
    afternoon of March 30, when Mitchell first examined her body] . . . [but] that being extremely liberal
    so to speak in terms of ascertaining a time of death that you might take it back as much as about 48
    hours or so.” Id. at 26–27.
    27
    Wecht stated that he could not recall ever having encountered a body in full rigor more
    than forty-eight hours after death, nor had he ever heard of such a case. Id. at 76.
    26
    photographic slides, but only in sectional slides, containing actual brain tissue.28 Inasmuch as there
    were no sectional slides in the medical examiner’s file, and inasmuch as the neuropathologist who in
    fact examined Hill’s brain had found no evidence of external decomposition, Wecht opined that
    Mitchell’s trial testimony in this regard was unfounded. See Remand Hearing Tr. 27–28, 31.
    Overall, Wecht found Mitchell’s explanation for expanding the possible time of death to
    include Friday to be unsound, and perhaps improper. He stressed that “any forensic pathologist in
    the world” would agree that an estimation of time of death is more reliable if made at around the
    time of the autopsy, and stated that Mitchell’s claim that he could “come back in six years later and
    say that now I have a new estimate” was, at best, “a misrepresentation.” Id. at 37–38.
    On cross-examination, Wecht allowed that it was possible that Hill could have died as early
    as 9:30 a.m. on Saturday, March 29. The attorney for the State then asked if it would have been
    “impossible for Hill to have died at 2:30 a.m. on Saturday morning,” to which Wecht offered the
    following response:
    You know, I am always very hesitant to use words like absolute and
    impossible . . . but I’ll answer with reasonable medical probability or
    reasonable medical certainty, I do not believe that Ms. Hill could have
    been killed as far back as 2:30 a.m. on Saturday morning, August 28th,
    that is after midnight on Friday, the 27th into the morning hours of
    Saturday, the 28th.
    Id. at 64–65.29 Notably, the State did not challenge Wecht’s credibility or expertise as a forensic
    pathologist or offer any expert testimony of its own.
    28
    Even observation of sectional slides is not a reliable means of determining the time of
    death, according to Wecht, because the pieces of the brain contained in sectional slides continue to
    decompose for approximately ten days after the brain is placed in a formalin bath for preservation.
    See Aff. of Cyril H. Wecht Supp. Section 440.10 Mot. at 5.
    29
    In any case, Rivas had an alibi for 2:30 a.m. Saturday morning. Prosecution witnesses
    testified that he arrived at Albert’s in Cazenovia between 11:00 p.m. Friday and 12:30 a.m. Saturday
    and his alibi was unchallenged for the remainder of Saturday. See Trial Tr. at 461–63, 439–40.
    27
    After the hearing, and upon receiving briefs from the parties, the magistrate judge issued a
    Report and Recommendation recommending that the petition again be dismissed as untimely. See
    Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-cv-1891, 
    2010 WL 1257938
     (N.D.N.Y. Jan. 8, 2010) (“Rivas III”). He found
    that Rivas had “established neither that he did not and could not have discovered the evidence
    serving as the factual predicate for his claims, through the exercise of due diligence, more than one
    year before his petition was filed, excluding any intervening tolling periods, nor a colorable claim of
    actual innocence[.]” 
    Id. at *1
    .
    With respect to timeliness, the magistrate judge concluded that the investigation into
    Mitchell’s misconduct as medical examiner was public knowledge at the time of the trial and
    therefore could have been discovered well in advance of May 8, 1999, the latest date on which
    Rivas’s § 2254 petition could have been timely filed. Id. at *10–11.30 Regarding Wecht’s June 9, 1999,
    affidavit casting doubt on Mitchell’s testimony, the magistrate judge concluded that it was not in fact
    “new evidence,” but instead was “nothing more than a conflicting opinion to that of Dr. Mitchell
    regarding the time of the victim’s death.” Id. at *11. The magistrate judge did not make any finding
    regarding when a duly diligent person would have discovered the factual predicates for Rivas’s Brady
    claims, concluding instead that Rivas had failed to establish that the material in question was actually
    withheld from the defense. Id. at *13–14. As a result of an apparent oversight, the magistrate judge
    did not address Rivas’s claim of ineffective assistance of trial counsel.
    With respect to actual innocence, the magistrate judge concluded, without elaboration or
    citation to the record, that the new evidence Rivas proffered “could [not] properly be characterized
    as the type of highly reliable evidence upon which a claim of actual innocence could be predicated.”
    The magistrate judge also concluded that the evidence relating to the Mitchell investigation
    30
    was “not of a character which would have altered the jury’s verdict,” because it did not include
    evidence that Mitchell falsely testified at trials. Id.
    28
    Id. at *15 n.23. Addressing the affidavit and testimony of Wecht, which he deemed the “centerpiece
    of petitioner’s actual innocence claim,” the magistrate judge noted that Wecht had “conceded on
    cross-examination that Hill’s death could have occurred as early as four to six hours prior to [3:30
    p.m. on Saturday, March 28, 1987] . . . and he was unable to state with absolute certainty that she could not
    have died late Friday night into the early morning hours of Saturday, March 2[8], 1987.” Id. at *15
    (emphasis added). Therefore, in the magistrate judge’s view, Wecht had not absolutely ruled out the
    possibility that Mitchell was correct in estimating the time of death at Friday, March 27, 1987.
    Importantly, the magistrate judge did not make any adverse credibility finding with respect to
    Wecht’s affidavit and testimony. Rather, in light of what he deemed to be “overwhelming” evidence
    of Rivas’s guilt, the magistrate judge concluded that “Dr. Wecht’s testimony does not rise to a level
    sufficient to permit the conclusion that no reasonable juror could have found guilt beyond a
    reasonable doubt had the additional evidence been considered.” Id. at *16.
    Rivas filed timely objections to the Report and Recommendation. After further briefing
    from both sides, Judge Sharpe, upon de novo review, adopted the magistrate judge’s Report and
    Recommendation and dismissed the petition without reaching the merits. See Rivas v. Fischer, No. 01-
    cv-1891, 
    2010 WL 1257935
     (N.D.N.Y. Mar. 26, 2010) (“Rivas IV”). The District Court granted a
    certificate of appealability “limited to the issue of when petitioner discovered the new evidence that
    serves as a factual predicate for some of his claims, and whether it could have been discovered
    earlier through the exercise of due diligence.” See 
    id. at *5
     (granting certificate of appealability as
    articulated by Magistrate Judge Peebles in Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
     at *17).31 This appeal followed
    31
    Though the certificate of appealability was limited to the issue of when the factual
    predicates for Rivas’s claims could have been discovered through the exercise of due diligence,
    Rivas’s notice of appeal states that it is “from each and every part” of the District Court’s judgment.
    Notice of Appeal, Rivas v. Fischer, No. 10-1300-pr (2d Cir. Apr. 8, 2010), ECF No. 1. We construe
    the notice of appeal as a request to amend the certificate of appealability to reach the issues of
    29
    and was assigned to the original panel, pursuant to the instructions in our prior summary order. See
    Rivas II, 294 F. App’x at 680 (invoking the remand procedure outlined in United States v. Jacobson, 
    15 F.3d 19
    , 21–22 (2d Cir. 1994)).
    DISCUSSION
    The merits of Rivas’s habeas petition are not at issue in this appeal. Rather, our concern is
    only with whether the petition was timely filed and, if the petition was untimely, whether Rivas’s
    delay in filing it should be excused.
    Among the reforms instituted by Congress in the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty
    Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”) is a one-year statute of limitations, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1), which runs from
    the latest of a number of triggering events, including “the date on which the judgment became final
    by the conclusion of direct review or the expiration of the time for seeking such review,” 
    id.
    § 2244(d)(1)(A), and “the date on which the factual predicate of the claim or claims presented could
    have been discovered through the exercise of due diligence,” id. § 2244(d)(1)(D). See note 1, ante.
    Petitioners, like Rivas, whose convictions became final before the enactment of AEDPA on April
    24, 1996, are entitled to a one-year “grace period,” meaning that their petitions would not be barred
    if filed on or before April 24, 1997. Ross v. Artuz, 
    150 F.3d 97
    , 103 (2d Cir. 1998).
    Rivas does not dispute that his federal habeas petition, filed December 12, 2001, would be
    untimely under § 2244(d)(1)(A), but argues here (as he did before the District Court) that it should
    nevertheless be considered timely under § 2244(d)(1)(D) because it is predicated on new evidence
    which could not have been discovered more than a year prior to his filing (excluding the period
    equitable tolling and actual innocence, and we grant that request. See Saunders v. Senkowski, 
    587 F.3d 543
    , 547 (2d Cir. 2009) (amending certificate of appealability to reach issue of timeliness, where
    certificate was granted only on issue of equitable tolling); Fed. R. App. P. 22(b)(2) (authorizing court
    of appeals to construe a notice of appeal as a request for a certificate of appealability).
    30
    during which his state post-conviction motion was pending). He also argues that, even if the petition
    was not timely filed under § 2244(d)(1)(D), he should benefit from equitable tolling, because it was
    only due to ineffective assistance rendered by his trial and initial post-conviction counsel that he
    failed to file sooner. Finally, he argues that the merits of his petition should be considered
    irrespective of the statute of limitations because he has made a compelling showing of actual
    innocence. The District Court rejected each of these arguments and dismissed the petition as
    untimely.
    We consider the District Court’s treatment of each issue in turn, reviewing its factual
    findings for clear error and its legal determinations de novo. See Drake v. Portuondo, 
    553 F.3d 230
    , 239
    (2d Cir. 2009).
    A.      Timeliness Under § 2244(d)(1)(D)
    Although Rivas raises six claims in his habeas petition, the claims that are allegedly
    predicated on new evidence fall into three categories: (1) the claims relating to the alleged
    misconduct and false testimony of the medical examiner, Mitchell; (2) the Brady claims; and (3) the
    ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claims. We have previously explained that, in order for Rivas’s
    petition to be deemed timely under § 2244(d)(1)(D), he must show that the factual predicates for
    these claims could not have been discovered through the exercise of due diligence before May 8,
    1999. See Rivas II, 294 F. App’x at 678. We arrived at this date by working backward from the date
    on which Rivas in fact filed his petition:
    Three hundred days of the one-year limitations period elapsed between
    the final denial of Rivas’s state post-conviction motion (February 15,
    2001) and the date on which he filed his federal habeas petition
    (December 12, 2001). From July 12, 1999 until February 15, 2001—the
    period during which Rivas’s state post-conviction motion was pending
    in state court—the limitations period was tolled. Counting back sixty-
    five days from the date when Rivas filed his state post-conviction
    petition (July 12, 1999) yields May 8, 1999.
    31
    Id. at 678. Accordingly, if the “newly discovered” evidence on which Rivas’s claims are predicated
    could in fact have been discovered prior to May 8, 1999, then the petition, filed December 12, 2001,
    is untimely under § 2244(d)(1)(D).
    The determination of the date on which the factual predicate for a habeas claim is first
    discoverable is a “fact-specific” inquiry which requires a district court to analyze the factual bases of
    each claim and to determine when the facts underlying the claim were known, or could with due
    diligence have been discovered. See Wims v. United States, 
    225 F.3d 186
    , 190 (2d Cir. 2000)
    (addressing the parallel requirement in the statute governing habeas petitions challenging federal
    convictions, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2255
    (f)(4)). Because the inquiry into when a factual predicate could have
    been discovered with due diligence is, by definition, a question of fact, we review the District Court’s
    determination for clear error. See Wilson v. Beard, 
    426 F.3d 653
    , 660 (3d Cir. 2005) (“The ultimate
    question whether a petitioner exercised due diligence is one of fact which we will set aside only if it
    is clearly erroneous[.]”); see generally Drake, 
    553 F.3d at 239
    .
    Congress did not provide a definition of the term “factual predicate,” as used in
    § 2244(d)(1)(D); nor have we previously had occasion to offer one. Those courts that have given
    meaning to the term agree that a factual predicate consists only of the “vital facts” underlying the
    claim. McAleese v. Brennan, 
    483 F.3d 206
    , 214 (3d Cir. 2007); see also Flanagan v. Johnson, 
    154 F.3d 196
    ,
    199 (5th Cir. 1998). We agree. The facts vital to a habeas claim are those without which the claim
    would necessarily be dismissed under Rule 4 of the Rules Governing § 2254 Cases in the United
    States District Courts (requiring a district judge to dismiss a petition “[i]f it plainly appears from the
    petition and any attached exhibits that the petitioner is not entitled to relief”) or Rule 12(b)(6) of the
    Federal Rules of Civil Procedure (allowing for dismissal of a civil complaint where the plaintiff has
    “fail[ed] to state a claim upon which relief can be granted”).
    32
    Accordingly, if new information is discovered that merely supports or strengthens a claim
    that could have been properly stated without the discovery, that information is not a “factual
    predicate” for purposes of triggering the statute of limitations under § 2244(d)(1)(D). See McAleese,
    
    483 F.3d at 214
     (observing that the petitioner had “confused the facts that make up his claims with
    evidence that might support his claims”); Escamilla v. Jungwirth, 
    426 F.3d 868
    , 871 (7th Cir. 2005)
    (“Section 2244(d)(1)(D) does not restart the time when corroborating evidence becomes available; if
    it did, then the statute of limitations would fail in its purpose to bring finality to criminal judgments,
    for any prisoner could reopen the judgment by locating any additional fact.”); Flanagan, 
    154 F.3d at 199
     (noting that petitioner “is confusing his knowledge of the factual predicate of his claim with the
    time permitted for gathering evidence in support of that claim”). Furthermore, it should go without
    saying that a factual predicate must consist of facts. Conclusions drawn from preexisting facts, even if
    the conclusions are themselves new, are not factual predicates for a claim.
    Applying this definition, we conclude that the District Court (adopting the Report and
    Recommendation of Magistrate Judge Peebles) did not clearly err in concluding that Rivas had
    “failed to prove that the factual predicate for any of the grounds asserted in his amended petition
    could not have been discovered by him through due diligence before May 8, 1999.” Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
     at *16; see Rivas IV, 
    2010 WL 1257935
    , at *5 (adopting the magistrate judge’s Report
    and Recommendation in full). We address each ground below.
    1.      Factual Predicate Supporting Claims of Misconduct and False Testimony by Mitchell
    In his Amended Petition, Rivas claims that “newly discovered evidence regarding the
    conduct of the autopsy, the medical examiner’s false evidence and the medical examiner’s prior bad
    acts, warrant the grant of habeas relief.” Am. § 2254 Petition at iv. The purportedly new evidence
    supporting this claim is: (1) evidence that Mitchell was under investigation for professional
    33
    misconduct at the time of the criminal trial; (2) evidence that Mitchell falsely testified that he had
    examined “slides” of the victim’s brain to determine her time of death, when in fact there were no
    such slides; and (3) evidence in the form of Wecht’s affidavit and hearing testimony demonstrating
    that Mitchell’s trial testimony ignored generally accepted scientific principles and arrived at a time-
    of-death estimate that was highly implausible.
    We agree with the District Court that the Mitchell investigation was discoverable prior to
    May 8, 1999. Indeed, in his § 440.10 Motion in state court, Rivas specifically cited newspaper
    coverage of the investigation predating his trial. As the magistrate judge observed, “[t]he publicity
    regarding that investigation belies any claim that Rivas and his counsel could not have learned of the
    investigation at or prior to the time of trial through the exercise of due diligence.” Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
    , at *10.
    The evidence suggesting that Mitchell lied when he testified that he adjusted his time-of-
    death estimate based in part on an analysis of autopsy sectional slides in the medical examiner’s file
    was also discoverable prior to May 8, 1999. On February 5, 1998, at Rivas’s request, the Onondaga
    County Court ordered the Medical Examiner’s Office to provide Rivas’s counsel with the records of
    its investigation into Hill’s death, including copies of “all slides prepared by the Medical Examiner’s
    Office of any organs or parts of organs of the deceased . . . or slides of any nature prepared in
    reference to Hill, including microscopic slides.” Am. § 2254 Petition Exh. B at 3. A copy of the
    medical examiner’s file was turned over on March 24, 1998. It included the report of Dr. George
    Collins, who had examined Hill’s brain shortly after her body was found and identified no abnormal
    postmortem decomposition. See id. Exh. C at 1, 3. It did not include any sectional slides. Thus, as of
    March 24, 1998, the factual predicate for the claim involving Mitchell’s alleged false testimony
    regarding so-called “brain slides” was discoverable with due diligence. Indeed, Rivas himself stated
    34
    in a letter to one of his attorneys dated April 23, 1998, that he “truly wasn’t surprised to learn that
    the [file] didn’t have any brain slides,” suggesting that he was aware of this fact prior to May 8, 1999.
    See Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
    , at *12 (quoting April 23, 1998, letter of Hector Rivas to Attorney
    Sidney Manes).
    Finally, Wecht’s affidavit, though seriously detrimental to the State’s case, is not a “factual
    predicate” as we have defined that term. Rather, it is a conclusion based on facts that were known to
    Rivas or discoverable by him or his counsel at the time of his trial. Wecht himself stated in the
    affidavit that his conclusions were based upon a review of the medical examiner’s file and the
    transcript of Rivas’s criminal trial, in particular Mitchell’s testimony. The information upon which
    Wecht relied in forming his conclusion is the factual predicate for this claim. This information was
    discoverable (and discovered) by March 24, 1998, at the latest, when the medical examiner’s file was
    turned over to Rivas.
    Moreover, even if the clock had started running on the date Wecht offered his conclusions,
    it is undisputed that these conclusions were initially offered in a confidential report to Rivas’s
    counsel on September 10, 1998, fully eight months prior to the critical date of May 8, 1999.
    2.       Factual Predicate Supporting Brady Claims
    Rivas contends that he was unable to establish his Brady claims until he succeeded in
    reconstructing his case file, the original of which was apparently lost at some point after his trial.
    Rivas’s efforts resulted in the Syracuse Corporation Counsel producing two batches of documents in
    response to requests under New York’s Freedom of Information Law. The first was received in
    September 1998 (with some additional material provided two months later) and the second in
    September 1999. See Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
    , at *7. However, because Rivas only produced the
    September 1999 batch at the evidentiary hearing on remand, the magistrate judge was “unable to
    35
    ascertain the extent to which the later produced materials duplicate those received earlier, and in
    particular whether the alleged Brady materials were among the three hundred eighty seven pages
    provided in September [and November] 1998, prior to the critical date.” Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
    at *7.
    It would have been preferable for the District Court to order Rivas to submit the September
    1998 disclosure so that it could be determined whether the alleged Brady materials were contained
    therein. However, it was Rivas’s burden (at that time, with the assistance of counsel) to prove that he
    could not have discovered the factual predicate for his Brady claims prior to May 8, 1999. We agree
    with the District Court that Rivas did not sustain his burden on this score.
    3.      Factual Predicate Supporting Ineffective Assistance of Counsel Claim
    In his amended petition, Rivas raises four claims of ineffective assistance of counsel, all tied
    to Calle’s performance at or before trial. Specifically, Rivas claims that Calle: (1) failed to advise him
    of his right to testify at trial; (2) failed to request a pretrial Sandoval ruling;32 (3) failed to cross-
    examine adequately one of the prosecution’s witnesses; and (4) failed to indicate on the trial record
    that certain evidence (namely, the letter from Hill to her ex-boyfriend), which the prosecution
    claimed was discovered at Rivas’s home, was in fact discovered at Hill’s home. See Am. § 2254
    Petition at ¶ 12.E. All of these allegations concern errors made prior to or during Rivas’s trial in
    March 1993. Thus, the factual predicates for these claims arose well in advance of May 9, 1999. To
    the extent Rivas claims that his failure to timely raise his claims of ineffective assistance of trial
    “In New York state courts a defendant may request a preliminary hearing, known as a
    32
    Sandoval hearing, to determine whether, if he elects to testify, his prior criminal record may be used
    to impeach his credibility.” Norde v. Keane, 
    294 F.3d 401
    , 408 n.1 (2d Cir. 2002) (citing People v.
    Sandoval, 
    34 N.Y.2d 371
     (1974)).
    36
    counsel was due to the ineffectiveness of his post-conviction counsel, that argument is relevant to
    the issue of equitable tolling (addressed below), not to the timeliness of the claim itself.
    For these reasons, we conclude, like the District Court, that all of Rivas’s claims are untimely
    under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1)(D). We proceed to examine whether, despite his failure to timely file
    his petition, Rivas should benefit from equitable tolling of, or an equitable exception to, the statute
    of limitations.
    B.      Equitable Tolling
    Rivas contends that, even if his petition was untimely under the strict operation of 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1), the statute of limitations ought to be equitably tolled. The Supreme Court has
    confirmed that AEDPA’s statute of limitations is not jurisdictional and “does not set forth ‘an
    inflexible rule requiring dismissal whenever’ its ‘clock has run.’” Holland v. Florida, 
    130 S. Ct. 2549
    ,
    2560 (2010) (quoting Day v. McDonough, 
    547 U.S. 198
    , 205 (2006)). Rather, the limitations period in
    § 2241(d) “is subject to equitable tolling in appropriate cases”—specifically, where the petitioner
    shows “(1) that he has been pursuing his rights diligently, and (2) that some extraordinary
    circumstance stood in his way and prevented timely filing.” Id. at 2560, 2562; see also Doe v. Menefee,
    
    391 F.3d 147
    , 175 (2d Cir. 2004) (“To qualify for [equitable tolling], the petitioner must establish
    that extraordinary circumstances prevented him from filing his petition on time, and that he acted
    with reasonable diligence throughout the period he seeks to toll.” (internal quotation marks
    omitted)). Whether a circumstance is extraordinary depends not on “how unusual the circumstance
    alleged to warrant tolling is among the universe of prisoners, but rather how severe an obstacle it is
    for the petitioner endeavoring to comply with AEDPA’s limitations period.” Diaz v. Kelly, 
    515 F.3d 149
    , 154 (2d Cir. 2008). “On an appeal from a district court’s denial of equitable tolling, we review
    37
    findings of fact for clear error and the application of legal standards de novo.” Harper v. Ercole, 
    648 F.3d 132
    , 136 (2d Cir. 2011).
    The “extraordinary circumstances” that Rivas points to in this case are: (1) the failure of his
    state post-conviction counsel, Mitchell Schulman, to file the § 440.10 motion sooner; and (2) the
    lack of cooperation he received from his trial counsel, Calle, who possessed information essential to
    Rivas’s habeas claims. We conclude that neither circumstance warrants equitable tolling of the
    limitations period.
    Because a lawyer is the agent of his client, the client generally “must ‘bear the risk of attorney
    error.’” Holland, 
    130 S. Ct. at 2563
     (quoting Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 752–53 (1991)).
    Therefore, “a garden variety claim of excusable neglect, such as a simple miscalculation that leads a
    lawyer to miss a filing deadline, does not warrant equitable tolling.” Id. at 2564 (internal citations and
    quotation marks omitted). Rather, in order to rise to the level necessary to constitute an
    “extraordinary circumstance,” for purposes of tolling § 2254’s limitation period, attorney negligence
    must be so egregious as to amount to an effective abandonment of the attorney–client relationship.
    See id. at 2564–65 (“extraordinary circumstances” found where counsel ignored letters of client
    emphasizing the importance of filing on time); Dillon v. Conway, 
    642 F.3d 358
    , 363–64 (2d Cir. 2011)
    (same); cf. Maples v. Thomas, 
    132 S. Ct. 912
    , 923 (2012) (emphasizing, in context of showing cause for
    a procedural default, “the essential difference between a claim of attorney error, however egregious,
    and a claim that an attorney had essentially abandoned his client”).33
    33
    The majority in Holland suggested that a lesser degree of attorney negligence may be
    required to merit equitable tolling (under the “extraordinary circumstances” standard) than is
    required to excuse a procedural default (under the “cause and prejudice” standard). See 
    130 S. Ct. at 2563
    . As the majority explained, this distinction is derived from principles of federalism: The tolling
    of a federal statute of limitations does not raise the same federalism concerns as does the excusing of
    a failure to comply with state procedural rules. See 
    id.
     Justice Alito wrote separately, however, and
    38
    Under this standard, we cannot conclude that Schuman’s conduct in failing to file the
    § 440.10 motion sooner was so outrageous or incompetent as to amount to an abandonment of the
    attorney–client relationship. In this case, unlike those in which we have found attorney
    incompetence to be “extraordinary,” there is no indication that Schuman ignored or contravened
    Rivas’s express instructions by delaying in filing the § 440.10 motion. Rather, Schuman’s conduct
    appears at worst to be a garden variety case of neglect.
    Calle’s conduct, on the other hand, presents a closer call. Rivas alleges that Calle essentially
    disappeared following his trial in 1993, could not be located until sometime in 1999, and even then
    initially refused to cooperate with his post-conviction counsel. These circumstances, if true, would
    certainly suggest that Calle abandoned Rivas and perhaps stood in the way of Rivas timely filing his
    petition.
    However, even if Calle’s disappearance constitutes the requisite “extraordinary
    circumstance[ ],” Rivas must still establish that he acted diligently to find Calle throughout the time
    he seeks to have tolled. Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 175
    . In this regard, the magistrate judge found that the
    efforts of Rivas and his attorneys in tracking down Calle were “both extremely modest and
    ultimately successful.” Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
     at *8. Although Rivas’s post-conviction counsel
    were unable initially to find Calle through New York’s Office of Court Administration because he
    argued that an attorney’s negligence can only rise to the level necessary to constitute an
    “extraordinary circumstance” for tolling purposes if it amounts to constructive abandonment of his
    client. 
    Id.
     at 2567–68 (Alito, J., concurring).
    In Maples, the Court cited Justice Alito’s distinction between attorney negligence and attorney
    abandonment with approval and clarified that there is “no reason . . . why the distinction between
    attorney negligence and attorney abandonment should not hold in both” the tolling context and the
    procedural-default context. 
    132 S. Ct. at
    923 & n.7. Accordingly, we understand the distinction
    between attorney negligence and attorney abandonment to be applicable here.
    39
    had been suspended from the bar, Rivas’s sister was able to find him within a month after she was
    asked to do so. 
    Id.
     Furthermore, even after Rivas obtained the affidavit from Calle, he allowed an
    additional 300 days to elapse between the close of the § 440.10 proceeding and the filing of his
    habeas petition, without any apparent impediment standing in the way of his timely filing. We
    therefore cannot conclude that the District Court clearly erred in determining that Rivas failed to act
    “with reasonable diligence . . . during the time he seeks to have tolled.” Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 175
    .
    Accordingly, we decline to equitably toll the limitations period.
    C.      Actual Innocence
    Having concluded that Rivas’s petition was untimely and that he does not qualify for
    equitable tolling, we come at last to the question of actual innocence. Following the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
     (1995), we have held that a habeas petitioner “may use his
    claim of actual innocence as a ‘gateway,’ or a means of excusing his procedural default, that enables
    him to obtain review of his constitutional challenges to his conviction.” Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 161
    .
    However, we have not yet decided whether a gateway claim of actual innocence may also excuse an
    untimely filing under AEDPA’s limitation period—a question that has divided our sister courts of
    appeal. See Lee v. Lampert, 
    653 F.3d 929
    , 932 (9th Cir. 2011) (en banc) (noting circuit split). In prior
    cases, we have declined to address the question, reasoning that we should only decide whether such
    an exception is required in a case in which it could make a difference—that is, a case in which the
    petitioner can actually make a credible and compelling showing of actual innocence. See Doe, 
    391 F.3d 147
    ; Whitley v. Senkowski, 
    317 F.3d 223
     (2d Cir. 2003); Lucidore v. N.Y. State Div. of Parole, 
    209 F.3d 107
     (2d Cir. 2000).
    In this case, we conclude that Rivas has indeed presented a credible and compelling claim of
    actual innocence. We therefore proceed to address the gateway question. As explained below, we
    40
    hold that a petitioner who satisfies the Supreme Court’s actual-innocence standard may pass through
    the Schlup gateway and have his substantive claims heard on the merits, notwithstanding an
    otherwise unexcused delay in filing his habeas petition.
    1.       The Schlup Gateway Standard
    As the Supreme Court has repeatedly recognized, “habeas corpus is, at its core, an equitable
    remedy.” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at
    319 (citing cases); see also Gomez v. U.S. Dist. Ct. for the N. Dist. of Cal.,
    
    503 U.S. 654
    , 654 (1992) (per curiam); Fay v. Noia, 
    372 U.S. 391
    , 438 (1963). For this reason, the
    Court has long instructed that statutes and rules governing habeas petitions must be applied with an
    eye toward “the ends of justice.” Sanders v. United States, 
    373 U.S. 1
    , 12 (1963) (holding that a district
    judge may decline to entertain a successive § 2255 petition “only if he is satisfied that the ends of
    justice will not be served by inquiring into the merits” (internal quotation marks omitted)). As the
    Court stated in Engle v. Isaac, in “appropriate cases,” the principles of comity and finality that
    underlie federal habeas corpus review “must yield to the imperative of correcting a fundamentally
    unjust incarceration.” 
    456 U.S. 107
    , 135 (1982).
    In Murray v. Carrier, the Court limited the availability of the “miscarriage of justice” exception
    to “extraordinary case[s], where a constitutional violation has probably resulted in the conviction of
    one who is actually innocent.” 
    477 U.S. 478
    , 496 (1986); see also Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 321
     (stating that
    Carrier “explicitly tied the miscarriage of justice exception to the petitioner’s innocence”). Though
    the Court has never expressly held that a petitioner may qualify for habeas relief based solely on a
    showing of actual innocence, see Herrera v. Collins, 
    506 U.S. 390
    , 400–01 (1993),34 it has recognized
    34
    The Court has assumed that “in a capital case a truly persuasive demonstration of ‘actual
    innocence’ made after trial would render the execution of a defendant unconstitutional, and warrant
    federal habeas relief.” Herrera, 
    506 U.S. at 417
    . However, it has never explicitly recognized the
    existence of a freestanding actual innocence claim. But see In re Davis, 
    130 S. Ct. 1
    , 1 (2009) (Order)
    41
    that, in rare cases, an assertion of innocence may allow a petitioner to have his accompanying
    constitutional claims heard despite a procedural bar. Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315
    ; Herrera, 
    506 U.S. at 404
    .
    As the Court has described it, such an assertion is “‘not itself a constitutional claim, but instead a
    gateway through which a habeas petitioner must pass to have his otherwise barred constitutional
    claim considered on the merits.’” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315
     (quoting Herrera, 
    506 U.S. at 404
    ).
    Accordingly, a petitioner seeking access to a federal habeas court in the face of a procedural
    obstacle must advance both a legitimate constitutional claim and a credible and compelling claim of
    actual innocence. It is the combination of the two claims—that the petitioner is likely innocent and
    that his conviction was likely the result of nonharmless constitutional error—that permits a habeas
    court to review the petition notwithstanding procedural obstacles in order to avoid a miscarriage of
    justice. See id. at 316. A claim of actual innocence under Schlup is therefore procedural, not
    substantive. Id. at 315. The petitioner raising such a claim does not seek to have his conviction
    vacated on grounds of innocence; rather, he seeks to create sufficient doubt about his guilt that the
    habeas court will permit him to pursue his accompanying constitutional claims notwithstanding an
    otherwise applicable procedural bar. See id. at 316.
    For this reason, the Supreme Court in Schlup observed that a petitioner seeking passage
    through the gateway has “less of a burden” than a petitioner advancing a freestanding, substantive
    claim of innocence. Id. As the Court explained, in the latter case, “the evidence of innocence would
    have . . . to be strong enough to make [the petitioner’s] execution ‘constitutionally intolerable’ even if
    (transferring habeas petition to district court for determination of whether petitioner on death row
    could present evidence that “clearly establishes [his] innocence”).
    42
    his conviction was the product of a fair trial.” Id.35 For the gateway petitioner, in contrast, “the
    evidence must establish sufficient doubt about his guilt to justify the conclusion that his execution
    would be a miscarriage of justice unless his conviction was the product of a fair trial.” Id. Accordingly,
    to present a successful gateway claim of actual innocence a petitioner must present “evidence of
    innocence so strong that a court cannot have confidence in the outcome of the trial unless the court
    is also satisfied that the trial was free of nonharmless constitutional error.” Id.
    To satisfy the Schlup standard, a claim of actual innocence must be both “credible” and
    “compelling.” See House, 
    547 U.S. at 521, 538
    . For the claim to be “credible,” it must be supported
    with “with new reliable evidence—whether it be exculpatory scientific evidence, trustworthy
    eyewitness accounts, or critical physical evidence—that was not presented at trial.” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 324
    ; see also House, 
    547 U.S. at 537
    . For the claim to be “compelling,” the petitioner must
    demonstrate that “more likely than not, in light of the new evidence, no reasonable juror would find
    him guilty beyond a reasonable doubt—or to remove the double negative, that more likely than not
    any reasonable juror would have reasonable doubt.” House, 547 U.S. at 538.
    This standard, it must be said, is somewhat cryptic. See Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 339
     (Rehnquist,
    C.J., dissenting) (deriding the standard as a “classic mixing of apples and oranges”). The Court has
    offered some clarity, however, by contrasting the gateway standard from others more familiar. Thus,
    “[t]he petitioner [raising a gateway innocence claim] . . . is required to make a stronger showing than
    that needed to establish prejudice. At the same time, the showing of ‘more likely than not’ imposes a
    Though Schlup involved a capital crime, the Supreme Court made clear in Calderon v.
    35
    Thompson, that the gateway standard applies to calms of actual innocence of any crime. See 
    523 U.S. 538
    , 560–66 (1998) (applying Schlup standard to a claim of actual innocence of noncapital rape
    conviction).
    43
    lower burden of proof than the ‘clear and convincing’ standard required under Sawyer [v. Whitley, 
    505 U.S. 333
    , 336 (1992), which applies to claims of actual innocence of the death penalty].” Id. at 327
    (internal citations omitted).36
    The Court has also stressed that the gateway standard is “by no means equivalent to the
    standard of Jackson v. Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
     (1979), that governs review of claims of insufficient
    evidence.” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 330
     (parallel citations omitted). Under Jackson, “the relevant question is
    whether, after viewing the evidence in the light most favorable to the prosecution, any rational trier
    of fact could have found the essential elements of the crime beyond a reasonable doubt.” 
    443 U.S. at 319
     (emphasis in original). Whereas, “[u]nder Jackson, the use of the word ‘could’ focuses the inquiry
    on the power of the trier of fact to reach its conclusion,” and its ability to do so, the use of the word
    36
    The Schlup Court expressly rejected the more exacting Sawyer standard, which requires a
    petitioner to show “‘by clear and convincing evidence that, but for a constitutional error, no
    reasonable juror would have found the petitioner eligible for the death penalty.’” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. 326
    –27 (quoting Sawyer, 
    505 U.S. at 336
    ).
    It bears noting that, with respect to both second and successive petitions and the availability
    of evidentiary hearings, Congress rejected the Schlup standard and reverted to the Sawyer standard
    when it enacted § 2244(b)(2)(B) and § 2254(e)(2). See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (b)(2)(B) (“A claim presented
    in a second or successive habeas corpus application under section 2254 that was not presented in a
    prior application shall be dismissed unless . . . the facts underlying the claim, if proven and viewed in
    light of the evidence as a whole, would be sufficient to establish by clear and convincing evidence
    that, but for constitutional error, no reasonable factfinder would have found the applicant guilty of
    the underlying offense.”); 
    id.
     § 2254(e)(2) (“If the applicant has failed to develop the factual basis of
    a claim in State court proceedings, the court shall not hold an evidentiary hearing unless the
    applicant shows that — . . . (B) the facts underlying the claim would be sufficient to establish by
    clear and convincing evidence that but for constitutional error, no reasonable factfinder would have
    found the applicant guilty of the underlying offense.”).
    The Supreme Court has made clear, however, that the Schlup standard remains in effect for
    first federal habeas petitions, like Rivas’s. See House, 
    547 U.S. at 539
     (“Neither [§ 2244(b)(2)(B)(ii) nor
    § 2254(e)(2)] addresses the type of petition at issue here—a first federal habeas petition seeking
    consideration of defaulted claims based on a showing of actual innocence.”).
    44
    “would” in the Schlup standard “focuses the inquiry on the likely behavior of the trier of fact.” Schlup,
    
    513 U.S. at 330
     (emphases added).
    Moreover, the Schlup inquiry differs from Jackson in the mix of evidence that the reviewing
    court may consider, as well as its vantage point. A court reviewing the sufficiency of the evidence
    supporting a conviction is limited to considering the evidence actually presented at trial, and must
    view that evidence in the light most favorable to the prosecution. A court reviewing a gateway claim
    of actual innocence is not so constrained:
    Because a Schlup claim involves evidence the trial jury did not have
    before it, the inquiry requires the federal court to assess how reasonable
    jurors would react to the overall, newly supplemented record. If new
    evidence so requires, this may include consideration of the credibility of
    the witnesses to be presented at trial.
    House, 547 U.S. at 538–39 (internal citations and quotation marks omitted). The standard therefore
    requires reviewing courts to “consider all the evidence, old and new, incriminating and exculpatory,”
    and, viewing the record as a whole, to “make a probabilistic determination about what reasonable,
    properly instructed jurors would do.” Id. at 538 (internal citations omitted).
    Although the Schlup standard is “demanding and permits review only in the extraordinary
    case,” the Court has emphasized that the “standard does not require absolute certainty about the
    petitioner’s guilt or innocence.” Id. Indeed, as demonstrated in House, it may be enough for the
    petitioner to introduce credible new evidence that thoroughly undermines the evidence supporting
    the jury’s verdict. Id. at 553–54.
    In House, the petitioner challenged his conviction for the murder of Carolyn Muncey, an
    acquaintance who lived near him in rural Tennessee. As in this case, the evidence against House was
    largely circumstantial, but not insignificant. The victim’s daughter testified that, on the night of the
    murder, her mother was lured out of the house by a man with a “deep voice,” like House’s. Id. at
    45
    523–24. A witness who participated in the search for Muncey’s body stated that he saw House
    emerge from an embankment near where Muncey’s body was found, wiping his hands on a rag. Id.
    at 524–25. Thereafter, when House was questioned by police, he told them that he had been with his
    girlfriend throughout the evening of the murder, but his girlfriend later revealed that House had in
    fact left her trailer to go for a walk at about 10:30 or 10:45 in the evening—during the period of time
    that the county medical examiner had determined Muncey likely died. Id. at 526–27. According to
    the girlfriend, when House returned to the trailer, he was “hot and panting, missing his shirt and his
    shoes.” Id. When police interviewed House, they noticed that he had scratches on his arms and legs,
    as well as a bruise on his right ring finger. Finally, testing by the Federal Bureau of Investigation
    revealed human blood of Muncey’s type on the pants House had been wearing the night of the
    murder and semen on Muncey’s nightgown that was consistent with House’s blood type. Id. at
    528–29. Despite this and other evidence suggesting that House was in fact guilty, the Supreme Court
    held that he had succeeded in making a compelling showing of actual innocence because he had
    produced expert testimony that “called into question” the “central forensic proof connecting [him]
    to the crime,” namely, the blood and semen analyses, id. at 554, and had produced evidence in the
    form of new witness testimony that Muncey’s husband had confessed to killing her. Id. at 548–53.
    Applying the Schlup standard—and guided by Supreme Court’s application of that standard
    in House—we conclude that it is more likely than not, in light of the credible new evidence Rivas has
    presented in support of his habeas petition, that any reasonable juror would have had a reasonable
    doubt about his guilt.
    46
    2.      Rivas’s Claim of Actual Innocence
    “Because the determination as to whether no reasonable juror would find a petitioner guilty
    beyond a reasonable doubt is a mixed question of law and fact, we review [a] district court’s ultimate
    finding of actual innocence de novo.” Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 163
    .
    At bottom, Rivas’s claim of actual innocence is simple, but compelling: Hill died on
    Saturday, March 27, 1987, at a time when Rivas had an unchallenged alibi. What makes the claim
    “credible,” as Schlup defines that term, is that it is based on new evidence—that is, evidence not
    heard by the jury—in the form of the essentially unchallenged testimony of a respected forensic
    pathologist, set against the word of a disgraced medical examiner who testified for the District
    Attorney while under investigation for potentially criminal misconduct that led, eight months later,
    to his resigning his office in part to avoid prosecution by the same office.
    Without doubt, therefore, the centerpiece of Rivas’s actual-innocence claim is the affidavit
    and testimony provided by Wecht. Wecht’s curriculum vitae runs nineteen pages. A Fellow and past
    president of the American College of Legal Medicine and the American Academy of Forensic
    Sciences, at the time he submitted his affidavit, Wecht served as the Allegheny County Coroner and
    had appointments as a Clinical Professor at the University of Pittsburgh Schools of Medicine,
    Dental Health, and Public Health, and as an Adjunct Professor at the Duquesne University School
    of Law. He is the author of numerous books and articles and was the editor of a leading treatise in
    the field, Forensic Sciences. He estimates that he has testified as an expert on approximately 1,000
    occasions, including criminal and civil matters. Remand Hearing Tr. at 16.37
    37
    We are aware that Wecht has also encountered some controversy over the course of his
    career. However, the State never questioned Wecht’s credibility or expertise in the remand hearing
    ordered by Rivas III, despite the fact that our previous summary order specifically recommended that
    the District Court “examine the likely credibility of the affiants and other witnesses at Rivas’s trial,
    47
    We do not here vouch for Wecht’s credibility and expertise, impressive as his credentials
    may be. However, we do take note of the remarkable—and perhaps telling—absence of any serious
    challenge to his credibility or expertise by the State at the evidentiary hearing before the magistrate
    judge on remand.38 The State did not challenge Wecht as an expert under Rule 702 of the Federal
    Rules of Evidence and did not call its own expert (or even Mitchell himself) to offer competing
    testimony. Therefore, as a reviewing court, we have before us only Wecht’s essentially unchallenged
    testimony, which establishes that it is nearly impossible for Hill to have died on Friday night or at
    any time prior to mid-morning on Saturday, March 28, 1987.
    Importantly, the District Court did not reject Wecht’s testimony. Rather, the magistrate
    judge found the testimony to be insufficiently persuasive because Wecht was “unable to state with
    absolute certainty that [Hill] could not have died late Friday night into the early morning hours of
    Saturday, March 2[8], 1987.” Rivas III, 
    2010 WL 1257938
     at *15 (emphasis added). This is both a
    clearly erroneous characterization of Wecht’s testimony as a matter of fact, and an erroneous
    application of the Schlup gateway standard as a matter of law. Though Wecht conceded that it was
    not impossible for Hill to have died as early as 9:30 a.m. on Saturday, he did not agree that she could
    and the relative strength of the State’s case against Rivas in light of any credibility determinations
    that the District Court sees fit to make,” Rivas III, 294 F. App’x at 679. There is no basis, therefore,
    in the record developed in the District Court, to discount Wecht’s testimony.
    38
    The only challenge the State made to Wecht’s testimony was its unsupported assertion that
    his opinion was based only on second-hand information provided to him by Rivas’s lawyers. In fact,
    Wecht stated, both in his affidavit and in the evidentiary hearing before the magistrate judge, that his
    conclusions were based on an examination of the autopsy file and a review of Mitchell’s trial
    testimony.
    Thus, the record is clear that Wecht testified not only based on his own experience and
    expertise, but also with full awareness of the factors that led Mitchell to conclude that Hill died on
    Friday, March 27. As he stated on cross-examination, “the science does not change because some
    other things of a nonscientific nature come into play.” Remand Hearing Tr. at 58.
    48
    have died any earlier. He further clarified that he was “allowing for possibilities on a bell-shaped
    curve,” meaning it was most likely that she died early Sunday morning and much less likely that she
    could have died at any time before 3:30 in the afternoon on Saturday. Remand Hearing Tr. at 64.
    Finally, as discussed above, when asked whether it would be impossible for Hill to have died as early
    as 2:30 a.m. on Saturday morning, Wecht responded:
    I am always very hesitant to use words like absolute and impossible, in
    the realm of human biology, . . . but I’ll answer with reasonable medical
    probability or reasonable medical certainty, I do not believe that Ms.
    Hill could have been killed as far back as 2:30 a.m. on Saturday
    morning, August 28, that is after midnight on Friday, the 27th into the
    morning hours of Saturday, the 28th, with reasonable medical
    probability.
    
    Id.
     at 64–65. Wecht can hardly be expected to have stated his opinion with any more certainty.
    “Absolute certainty” cannot be the standard by which to evaluate the testimony of a forensic
    witness; it is not possible for anyone who was not actually present at the time of death and it is
    certainly not required by law. Indeed, in House, the Supreme Court explicitly stated that “the Schlup
    standard does not require absolute certainty about the petitioner’s guilt or innocence.” 547 U.S. at 538
    (emphasis added).
    The appropriate question for the District Court on remand was not whether Wecht could
    conclusively and definitively establish Rivas’s innocence, but whether, in light of Wecht’s testimony
    and the other new evidence Rivas produced (including the Lazarski affidavit and the affidavit of the
    unnamed neighbor who heard a car speed away from Hill’s apartment on Saturday night), a
    reasonable juror considering the entire mix of evidence in the case would more likely vote to acquit
    or to convict. Undertaking this inquiry ourselves following a careful review of the entire record in
    this case, we conclude that it is more likely than not that a reasonable juror, considering all the
    evidence, old and new, would vote to acquit Rivas of the murder.
    49
    We concede that the circumstantial evidence linking Rivas to the crime is not trivial. He was
    apparently enamored of Hill and seemed unwilling to accept that their relationship was over. Two
    witnesses placed him near Hill’s house at 11:00 p.m. on Friday night. Trial Tr. at 533–34, 936–37.39
    He acted strangely when questioned by police and seemed to have no reaction when told that Hill
    had died. Id. at 246–47. An apparent “shrine,” which included a photograph of Hill, was found in his
    closet. Id. at 270–74, 316. Finally, a witness testified that Rivas uttered words that a jury could
    interpret to be incriminatory when, several weeks after Hill’s death, he was heard to drunkenly
    mutter to himself, “Valerie, Valerie, I didn’t mean to do it.” Id. at 817.40
    Against this, the nonscientific evidence tending to exonerate Rivas is significant, but likely not
    compelling enough to satisfy the Schlup standard. We do not regard the alleged confession of Patsy
    Barricella as particularly credible and, inasmuch as it was presented at Rivas’s trial, the jury has
    already rejected it. The evidence that Hill was involved in an intimate relationship with a man other
    than Rivas around the time of her murder, that she had lodged a complaint against a coworker not
    long before her death, and that one of her neighbors had been arrested for burglary and was known
    to peer through windows, might suggest that the police failed to pursue other leads in the
    investigation, but does not compellingly point to Rivas’s innocence. The evidence, taken together,
    raises doubts about Rivas’s guilt, but it does not, in isolation, so undermine the State’s circumstantial
    evidence as to satisfy the Schlup standard.
    39
    One of these witnesses, it bears noting, appears to have been the sister of the individual
    who had previously been arrested for burglarizing Hill’s apartment and was questioned by police in
    their investigation of Hill’s murder. See note 23, ante.
    40
    Despite the fact that the Hill murder was a well known “cold case” in Syracuse for six
    years, this witness told nobody but his girlfriend what he had heard, and the girlfriend came forward
    only after Rivas was indicted in November 1992. See Trial Tr. 828–29.
    50
    Ultimately, however, it does not matter how much indirect, circumstantial evidence the State
    can amass to suggest that Rivas killed Hill on Friday night, if she in fact died on Saturday night—at a
    time when Rivas had an alibi that the District Attorney himself characterized as “complete.” Trial
    Tr. at 55. Therefore, the question turns almost entirely on the relative credibility of the prosecution’s
    expert, Mitchell, and Rivas’s expert, Wecht. In this regard, we stress once more that the State,
    despite having the opportunity to challenge Wecht’s testimony at the evidentiary hearing, or to call
    its own expert to support Mitchell’s conclusions, failed to raise any serious question about Wecht’s
    qualifications or conclusions. We therefore are left to weigh the unchallenged testimony of a
    renowned forensic pathologist—who concluded “to a reasonable degree of medical certainty” that
    Hill could not have died on Friday—against the testimony of a disgraced and allegedly beholden
    medical examiner, who initially told police that Hill died on Saturday evening, later told the grand
    jury that it was on the “outside edge of possibility” that she died on Friday evening, and finally
    testified, without reference to any degree of medical certainty, that it was “more likely” that she died
    on Friday night.
    Although Mitchell pointed to extrinsic factors that support his conclusion that Hill died on
    Friday night—primarily that she was not heard from or seen after Friday night, despite having made
    plans to visit a friend outside Albany—the Lazarski affidavit and the police report memorializing the
    interview with the unnamed neighbor each offer indirect support to Wecht’s conclusion that the
    murder most likely occurred late Saturday night. However, as Wecht testified at the remand hearing,
    his conclusions are based primarily on science, and “the science does not change because some
    other things of a nonscientific nature come into play.” Remand Hearing Tr. at 58.
    Finally, though we do not suggest that Mitchell intentionally lied on the stand or that District
    Attorney Fitzpatrick suborned perjury, we think a reasonable juror would discredit Mitchell’s
    51
    testimony upon learning that he had been subject to numerous investigations for misconduct and
    official malfeasance and was under investigation for potentially criminal misconduct at the very
    moment that he was providing testimony in the criminal trial. In short, based on the record before
    us, any reasonable juror would almost certainly credit Wecht over Mitchell and would therefore,
    more likely than not, harbor a reasonable doubt about Rivas’s guilt.
    To be sure, this is a close case. Indeed, we would not expect a lesser showing of actual
    innocence to satisfy the Schlup standard. After all, we cannot be sure that Wecht’s testimony would
    stand up against that of another respected pathologist, because the State did not challenge him. And,
    even assuming, as we must, that Wecht’s testimony was credible, there remains some troubling
    circumstantial evidence pointing to Rivas. But it was not Rivas’s burden to prove his innocence
    beyond a reasonable doubt, and we are not called upon in this case to determine once and for all
    who murdered Valerie Hill. Rather, the issue before us is solely whether Rivas has, through credible
    new evidence, cast sufficient doubt upon his guilt that we “cannot have confidence in the outcome
    of [his] trial” unless we can be assured that “the trial was free of nonharmless constitutional error.”
    Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315
    .
    We conclude that he has, largely because the record before us compares favorably to that
    presented in House. Like House, Rivas faces considerable circumstantial evidence suggesting he had
    an opportunity, and perhaps a motive, to commit the murder with which he was charged. But, again
    like House, he has produced highly persuasive—and, in Rivas’s case, largely unchallenged— expert
    testimony, which casts considerable doubt on the “central forensic proof” connecting him to the
    crime. Both men also produced evidence—concededly weaker in Rivas’s case—suggesting that
    52
    another man may have been the killer.41 On the whole, comparing the two cases, we believe Rivas’s
    showing is at least as strong as that which gained House entry through the Schlup gateway.
    Accordingly, following the guidance of the Supreme Court, we conclude that “although the
    issue is close . . . this is the rare case where—had the jury heard all the conflicting testimony—it is
    more likely than not that no reasonable juror viewing the record as a whole would lack reasonable
    doubt.” House, 547 U.S. at 554.
    3.      A Credible and Compelling Claim of Actual Innocence Provides Equitable
    Relief from AEDPA’s Limitations Period
    Although the Supreme Court has established that a credible and compelling claim of actual
    innocence may provide a “gateway” around other species of procedural default, it has not yet
    considered whether such a claim may excuse a filing that is untimely under § 2244(d)(1). As we
    explained in Doe v. Menefee, the “doctrine of actual innocence was developed to mitigate the
    harshness of the judicial limitations placed on a petitioner’s ability to file successive or otherwise
    procedurally defaulted habeas petitions in the federal courts.” 
    391 F.3d at 160
     (emphasis added).
    These “judicial limitations” were later codified in AEDPA, as was a variation of the actual innocence
    exception. See 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 2254
    (b)(2), 2244(b)(2)(B). However, because there was no statute of
    limitations governing the filing of habeas-corpus petitions prior to AEDPA, there was likewise no
    occasion to apply the actual innocence standard to excuse untimely filed petitions. Accordingly, the
    question presented in this case is whether the judicially created Schlup gateway standard applies in
    41
    Although we do not find the evidence suggesting that Patsy Baricella may have been Hill’s
    killer to be especially persuasive, we note that the testimony in House pointing to another killer was
    specifically found to be not credible by the District Court presiding over House’s evidentiary
    hearing, which noted that it was “not impressed with the allegations of individuals who wait over ten
    years to come forward.” See House, 
    547 U.S. at
    557–58 (Roberts, C.J., concurring in the judgment in
    part and dissenting in part).
    53
    this slightly different context to provide an equitable exception to AEDPA’s legislatively imposed
    limitations period, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1).42
    As stated at the outset, § 2244(d)(1) provides that “[a] 1-year period of limitation shall apply
    to an application for a writ of habeas corpus by a person in custody pursuant to the judgment of a
    State court.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1); see note 1, ante. We have suggested in passing that “[a] claim of
    actual innocence could provide a basis for excusing [a] late filing.” Friedman v. Rehal, 
    618 F.3d 142
    , 152
    (2d Cir. 2010) (emphasis added). However, we have thus far avoided deciding whether it does, opting
    instead to wait for a case in which such a determination actually matters—that is, a case, like this
    one, in which the petitioner has satisfied the Schlup burden. See Doe v. Menefee, 
    391 F.3d 147
     (2d Cir.
    2004); Whitley v. Senkowski, 
    317 F.3d 223
     (2d Cir. 2003); Lucidore v. N.Y. State Div. of Parole, 
    209 F.3d 107
     (2d Cir. 2000).
    A number of our sister circuits have examined this issue and reached differing conclusions.
    Compare Lee v. Lampert, 
    653 F.3d 929
    , 934 (9th Cir. 2011) (en banc) (“Lee II”) (holding that a
    42
    Though some courts have framed the question as whether AEDPA allows for equitable
    tolling of the limitations period in cases where the petitioner has advanced a compelling claim of
    actual innocence, we believe it is more accurate to describe the issue as whether an equitable exception
    to § 2244(d)(1) exists in such cases. See Lee v. Lampert, 
    653 F.3d 929
    , 932 n.5 (9th Cir. 2011) (en banc)
    (“Lee II”) (“The more accurate characterization is ‘equitable exception,’ because equitable tolling
    involves different theoretical underpinnings.”). Equitable tolling, after all, requires a showing that
    “some extraordinary circumstance stood in [the petitioner’s] way and prevented timely filing.”
    Holland v. Florida, 
    130 S. Ct. 2549
    , 2662 (2010) (internal quotation marks omitted). Although it may
    rightly be considered an extraordinary circumstance, it cannot be said that a prisoner’s actual
    innocence prevents him from timely filing. Furthermore, a petitioner seeking to benefit from equitable
    tolling must show that he “acted with reasonable diligence throughout the period he seeks to toll.”
    Doe, 
    391 F.3d at 159
    . Such a due-diligence requirement is incompatible with a workable actual
    innocence exception. Inasmuch as the exception was designed to provide a gateway around
    procedural defaults that would otherwise require a showing of cause and prejudice, it is evident that
    due diligence is not necessary to support a gateway claim of actual innocence. See, e.g., Perkins v.
    McQuiggin, 
    670 F. 3d 665
    , 672–76 (6th Cir. 2012); Lee II, 
    653 F.3d at 934
    ; San Martin v. McNeil, 
    633 F.3d 1257
    , 1267–68 (11th Cir. 2011); Lopez v. Trani, 
    628 F.3d 1228
    , 1230–31 (10th Cir. 2010).
    54
    compelling claim of actual innocence constitutes an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitations
    period); San Martin v. McNeil, 
    633 F.3d 1257
    , 1267–68 (11th Cir. 2011) (same); Lopez v. Trani, 
    628 F.3d 1228
    , 1230–31 (10th Cir. 2010) (same); Souter v. Jones, 
    395 F.3d 577
    , 602 (6th Cir. 2006) (same);
    with Escamilla v. Jungwirth, 
    426 F.3d 868
    , 871–72 (7th Cir. 2005) (holding that no such exception
    exists); Cousin v. Lensing, 
    310 F.3d 843
    , 849 (5th Cir. 2002) (same); David v. Hall, 
    318 F.3d 343
    , 347
    (1st Cir. 2003) (suggesting the same, in dicta).43 We find more persuasive the reasoning expressed in
    the cases holding that an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitations period exists for compelling
    claims of actual innocence. We therefore join the Sixth, Ninth, Tenth, and Eleventh Circuits in
    concluding that the Schlup actual-innocence gateway extends to claims otherwise barred by §
    2244(d)(1).
    In reaching this conclusion, we find it relevant that no court has settled on the contrary
    conclusion following the Supreme Court’s decision on a related question in Holland v. Florida, 
    130 S. Ct. 2549
     (2010).44 In Holland, the Court concluded that AEDPA’s limitations period “is subject to
    equitable tolling in appropriate cases.” 
    Id. at 2560
    . The Court reasoned that, because § 2244(d) “is
    not jurisdictional[,] [i]t does not set forth an inflexible rule requiring dismissal whenever its clock has
    43
    In Riva v. Ficco, 
    615 F.3d 35
     (1st Cir. 2010), the First Circuit appeared to retreat from the
    position it espoused in David v. Hall, suggesting that the earlier case merely “express[ed] skepticism”
    about whether a credible actual-innocence claim may excuse an untimely filing, and remanded the
    question for further consideration in the district court. See 
    id.
     at 44 n.4.
    The Eighth Circuit has also considered this question, adopting a kind of middle ground
    whereby an actual-innocence claim may be treated as an “extraordinary circumstance” bearing on the
    general issue of equitable tolling. See Flanders v. Graves, 
    299 F.3d 974
    , 976–78 (8th Cir. 2002).
    In Lee v. Lampert, 
    610 F.3d 1125
     (9th Cir. 2010) (“Lee I”), a panel of the Ninth Circuit
    44
    concluded that, notwithstanding the Supreme Court’s guidance in Holland (which was decided a
    mere three weeks before Lee I was filed), a claim of actual innocence does not provide an exception
    to AEDPA’s limitations period. However, the panel’s decision was subsequently reversed by the en
    banc Ninth Circuit. See Lee II, 
    653 F.3d at 932
    .
    55
    run.” 
    Id.
     (internal citation and quotation marks omitted). Rather, in recognition of the fact that
    “equitable principles have traditionally governed the substantive law of habeas corpus,” the
    limitations period is “subject to a rebuttable presumption in favor of equitable tolling,” 
    id.
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted)—a presumption that cannot be rebutted “absent the clearest command”
    of Congress. 
    Id.
     at 2560–61. Because the language of § 2244(d) reads like a “run-of-the-mill” statute
    of limitations, and is not “unusually emphatic”—and because equitable tolling is not inconsistent
    with AEDPA’s basic purposes—the Supreme Court concluded that Congress had not rebutted the
    presumption that equitable tolling would continue to apply after AEDPA’s enactment. Id. at
    2561–62.
    Holland demonstrates that traditional principles of equity continue to have a place in the
    review of habeas petitions following the enactment of AEDPA. The only question for us, therefore,
    is whether there is a meaningful difference between equitable tolling, as described in Holland, and the
    equitable exception from which Rivas seeks to benefit in this case. We conclude that there is not.
    The reasoning of Holland is not limited to equitable tolling. Rather, the Court emphasized
    more generally that “we will ‘not construe a statute to displace courts’ traditional equitable authority
    absent the clearest command.’” Id. at 2560 (emphasis added) (quoting Miller v. French, 
    530 U.S. 327
    ,
    340 (2000) (other internal quotation marks omitted)). The authority to carve out limited exceptions
    to nonjurisdictional statutes of limitations where compelled by the interests of justice has long been
    recognized to be within the traditional equitable power of the courts. See, e.g., Burnett v. New York
    Cent. R. Co., 
    380 U.S. 424
    , 428 (1965) (observing that the “policy of repose” inherent in statutes of
    limitations “is frequently outweighed . . . where the interests of justice require vindication of the
    plaintiff’s rights”).
    56
    The actual-innocence gateway is also firmly grounded in the courts’ traditional equitable
    authority—specifically “in the ‘equitable discretion’ of habeas courts to see that federal
    constitutional errors do not result in the incarceration of innocent persons.” Herrera, 
    506 U.S. at 404
    .
    As the Supreme Court has observed, “concern about the injustice that results from the conviction of
    an innocent person has long been at the core of our criminal justice system,” reflecting “a
    fundamental value determination of our society that it is far worse to convict an innocent man than
    to let a guilty man go free.” Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 325
    . Motivated by this concern, the Court recognized
    over a quarter-century ago an equitable exception to procedural rules intended to limit habeas relief
    in “extraordinary case[s], where a constitutional violation has probably resulted in the conviction of
    one who is actually innocent.” Murray v. Carrier, 
    477 U.S. 478
    , 496 (1986).
    This fundamental principle was well entrenched by the time Congress enacted AEDPA in
    1996. See, e.g., Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at
    319–23; Sawyer, 
    505 U.S. at 339
    ; Kuhlmann v. Wilson, 
    477 U.S. 436
    ,
    442 (1986); Smith v. Murray, 
    477 U.S. 527
    , 537 (1986); Carrier, 
    477 U.S. at 496
    . To be sure, actual
    innocence had not been recognized as an exception to a federal statute of limitations prior to
    AEDPA, because no such limitation period existed before the enactment of § 2244(d) as part of
    AEDPA. However, many states enforced their own statutes of limitations in their collateral review
    procedures during this time and the Supreme Court had held that a procedural default based on a
    failure to timely file for post-conviction relief in state court could be excused if the “failure to
    consider the claims will result in a fundamental miscarriage of justice.” Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 750 (1991) (internal quotation marks omitted). It follows, therefore, that the equitable authority
    of the courts to excuse an untimely filing where a petitioner makes a compelling showing of actual
    innocence was well established before Congress enacted AEDPA. We will relinquish that authority
    only if Congress has clearly commanded it.
    57
    We are not convinced that any such clear command can be derived from AEDPA’s statutory
    text. It is true that AEDPA expressly refers to actual innocence in its successive-petition provision,
    which allows a petitioner to proceed with a successive petition only if he can show “by clear and
    convincing evidence that, but for constitutional error, no reasonable factfinder would have found
    the applicant guilty of the underlying offense.” See 
    28 U.S.C. §§ 2244
    (b)(2)(B)(ii).45 This standard, of
    course, is more exacting than the Supreme Court’s Schlup gateway standard, which allows a
    petitioner’s first habeas petition to be adjudicated on the merits if it is “more likely than not” that no
    reasonable juror would find proof of guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. However, the fact that
    Congress adopted a more stringent standard to govern successive petitions does not mean that it
    clearly intended to prevent application of the preexisting Schlup standard to untimely first petitions.
    As Judge Lewis Kaplan has observed, “[i]t is difficult to imagine that a Congress that explicitly
    allowed maintenance of a second or successive petition where the applicant makes out a strong claim
    45
    In pertinent part, § 2244(b)(2) provides that:
    A claim presented in a second or successive habeas corpus application
    under section 2254 that was not presented in a prior application shall be
    dismissed unless . . . (B) . . . (ii) the facts underlying the claim, if proven
    and viewed in light of the evidence as a whole, would be sufficient to
    establish by clear and convincing evidence that, but for constitutional
    error, no reasonable factfinder would have found the applicant guilty of
    the underlying offense.
    A similar exception exists to AEDPA’s evidentiary-hearing provision, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(2),
    which provides as follows:
    If the applicant has failed to develop the factual basis of a claim in State
    court proceedings, the court shall not hold an evidentiary hearing on the
    claim unless the applicant shows that . . . (B) the facts underlying the
    claim would be sufficient to establish by clear and convincing evidence
    that but for constitutional error, no reasonable factfinder would have
    found the applicant guilty of the underlying offense.
    58
    of actual innocence implicitly intended to foreclose as untimely an initial petition brought by the
    individual with a comparable claim.” Garcia v. Portuondo, 
    334 F. Supp. 2d 446
    , 461 (S.D.N.Y. 2004); cf.
    Lonchar v. Thomas, 
    517 U.S. 314
    , 324 (1996) (“Dismissal of a first federal habeas petition is a
    particularly serious matter.” (emphasis in the original)). Indeed, in House, the Supreme Court
    explicitly held that the “clear and convincing evidence” standard of review found in
    § 2244(e)(2)(B)(ii) and in § 2254(e)(2)—which sets the threshold for obtaining an evidentiary hearing
    on a claim that was not developed in state court—is inapplicable to “a first federal habeas petition
    seeking consideration of defaulted claims based on a showing of actual innocence.” House, 
    547 U.S. at 539
    . We therefore conclude that §§ 2244(e)(2)(B)(ii) and 2254(e)(20 represent a Congressional
    intent to increase the burden of proving actual innocence in successive petitions, but not to eliminate
    or disturb the preexisting Schlup standard for first petitions. See Lee II, 
    653 F.3d at 937
    ; Souter, 395
    F.3d at 598–99.
    Those of our sister circuits that have concluded that § 2244(d) does not admit of any actual-
    innocence exception have pointed to the fact that, in subsections (B), (C), and (D) of § 2254(d)(1),
    “the statute establishes three ‘very specific exceptions,’” Lee I, 610 F.3d at 1127, rev’d Lee II, 
    653 F.3d 929
     (quoting David, 
    318 F.3d at 343
    ), none of which mentions actual innocence. Therefore, these
    courts have concluded, the doctrine of expressio unius est exclusio alterius (express mention of one thing
    excludes all others) dictates that Congress could not have intended for courts to apply an additional
    actual-innocence exception to the limitations period. In our view, these decisions rest on an error of
    statutory construction, which the Supreme Court itself identified in Holland. There, the Court
    explained that the events described in §§ 2244(d)(1)(B)–2244(d)(1)(D) are not “exceptions to
    [AEDPA’s] basic time limits,” but rather, alternative “events that trigger its running.” 
    130 S. Ct. at
    59
    2561 (first emphasis added). In other words, there is no express mention, supportive or dismissive,
    of exceptions to the limitations period in AEDPA’s statutory text.
    Accordingly, absent a clear congressional command to the contrary, we conclude that the
    preexisting equitable authority of federal courts to hear barred claims if they are accompanied by a
    compelling showing of actual innocence survives the enactment of AEDPA and applies to claims
    otherwise barred by its statute of limitations, § 2244(d)(1).
    Moreover, we conclude that the recognition of an actual-innocence exception to § 2244(d) is
    consistent with AEDPA’s basic purposes. As the Supreme Court explained in Holland,
    We recognize that AEDPA seeks to eliminate delays in the federal
    habeas review process. But AEDPA seeks to do so without
    undermining basic habeas corpus principles and while seeking to
    harmonize the new statute with prior law, under which a petition’s
    timeliness was always determined under equitable principles. When
    Congress codified new rules governing this previously judicially
    managed area of law, it did so without losing sight of the fact that the
    ‘writ of habeas corpus plays a vital role in protecting constitutional
    rights.’ It did not seek to end every possible delay at all costs.
    
    130 S. Ct. at 2562
     (quoting Slack v. McDaniel, 
    529 U.S. 473
    , 483 (2000)) (internal citations omitted);
    cf. Calderon v. Thompson, 
    523 U.S. 538
    , 558 (1998) (“The miscarriage of justice standard is altogether
    consistent . . . with AEDPA’s central concern that the merits of concluded criminal proceedings
    not be revisited in the absence of a strong showing of actual innocence.”).
    Finally, we agree with the Court of Appeals for the Third Circuit that, “[w]ere no other
    avenue of judicial review available for a party who claims that s/he is factually or legally innocent
    . . . we would be faced with a thorny constitutional issue.” In re Dorsainvil, 
    119 F.3d 245
    , 248 (3d Cir.
    1997) (internal quotation marks omitted). As we observed in Triestman v. United States, a case
    addressing a federal prisoner’s collateral appeal, “serious Eighth Amendment and due process
    questions would arise with respect to [§ 2244(d) of] the AEDPA” if it were read to deny collateral
    60
    review to a prisoner who is actually innocent. 
    124 F.3d 361
    , 378–79 (2d Cir. 1997); see also In re
    Davis, 
    130 S. Ct. 1
    , 1 (2009) (per curiam) (Stevens, J., concurring) (citing Triestman’s discussion of
    “serious constitutional concerns that would arise if AEDPA were interpreted to bar judicial review
    of certain actual innocence claims.”); Souter v. Jones, 
    395 F.3d 577
    , 601 (6th Cir. 2005) (concluding
    that “constitutional concerns counsel in favor of upholding equitable tolling based on a credible
    claim of actual innocence”); Miller v. Marr, 
    141 F.3d 976
    , 978 (10th Cir. 1998) (noting that a claim of
    actual innocence may be among the “circumstances where the limitation period at least raises
    serious constitutional question and possibly renders the habeas remedy inadequate and
    ineffective”). The Supreme Court’s gateway standard allows courts to examine compelling claims of
    actual innocence while remaining within AEDPA’s framework, without necessitating the more
    delicate task of determining whether § 2244(d) itself violates the Constitution when applied to deny
    review to a first-time petitioner raising a credible and compelling claim of actual innocence along
    with claims of constitutional error.
    For the foregoing reasons, we join the growing chorus of appellate courts to recognize, in
    Holland’s wake, an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitation period in extraordinary cases like this
    one, in which the petitioner has made a compelling showing of his actual innocence under the
    Schlup gateway standard.
    CONCLUSION
    To summarize, we conclude that:
    (1) Rivas’s petition was not timely under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2244
    (d)(1); and
    (2) that he has not shown the extraordinary circumstances and reasonable diligence
    required to qualify for equitable tolling.
    61
    However,
    (3) because Rivas has produced credible and compelling—and essentially
    unchallenged—expert testimony which calls into serious doubt the central forensic evidence linking
    him to the crime and persuasively suggests that the victim died at a time when Rivas had an
    unchallenged alibi, we conclude that this is the exceptional case where a reasonable juror, apprised
    of all the evidence in the record, would more likely than not vote to acquit.
    Having made such a showing,
    (4) Rivas is entitled to an equitable exception to AEDPA’s limitation period.
    Accordingly, the judgment of the District Court dismissing Rivas’s claims as time-barred is
    REVERSED.
    We emphasize that we have not determined that Rivas is in fact innocent of Hill’s murder.
    Rather, we have found that he has produced sufficient evidence of his innocence to undermine
    confidence in the justice of his continued incarceration unless we can also be satisfied that his trial
    was free of nonharmless constitutional error. See Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 315
    . We therefore REMAND
    the cause to the District Court for full consideration of Rivas’s underlying constitutional claims,
    which have heretofore not been addressed. See § 2254 Petition at i–ii.46 Inasmuch as Rivas has not
    46
    The Supreme Court has recently held that, “if a claim has been adjudicated on the merits
    by a state court, a federal habeas petitioner must overcome the limitation of § 2254(d)(1) on the
    record that was before the state court.” Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    131 S. Ct. 1388
    , 1400 (2011). We leave it
    to the District Court to determine, in the first instance, whether any of Rivas’s substantive claims
    were not decided on the merits by the state court and, if not, whether an evidentiary hearing is
    required.
    In view of the very capable representation provided to Rivas in his first remand hearing, and
    during his § 440.10 proceedings in state court, we encourage the District Court to consider
    reappointing Kimberly Zimmer or Sally Wasserman, or both, to assist Rivas going forward. We note
    as well the important role attorney Sidney Manes has played in this case, and trust that whoever
    represents Rivas will benefit from his continuing involvement.
    62
    advanced a freestanding substantive claim of actual innocence, the issue of his actual innocence or
    guilt is no longer relevant to the adjudication of his habeas petition, except insofar as it relates to
    prejudice.
    Should the District Court determine that this matter must yet again be referred to a
    magistrate judge, we instruct that it not be reassigned to Magistrate Judge Peebles. We cast no
    aspersions on the performance of Magistrate Judge Peebles in this case and have no reason to
    doubt his impartiality. (Indeed, Rivas has not sought to have him disqualified.) However, as noted
    above, see note 24, ante, Magistrate Judge Peebles previously disclosed that he had served with
    Fitzpatrick in the Onondaga County District Attorney’s Office and had asked Fitzpatrick to be the
    godfather of his daughter. Rivas alleges that Fitzpatrick deliberately withheld exculpatory
    information from him and suggests improper collusion between Fitzpatrick and the medical
    examiner, Mitchell. Though we do not comment on, let alone endorse, the merits of these claims,
    in order to avoid any appearance of impropriety we think the interests of justice require that this
    matter be adjudicated by judges without close personal and professional ties to the prosecutor. We
    therefore direct that, if the assistance of a magistrate judge is indeed required, the matter should be
    referred to a magistrate judge who does not have a personal or professional relationship with
    Fitzpatrick or the Office of the District Attorney of Onondaga County.
    Finally, we direct that jurisdiction be returned to this Court upon a letter request from any
    party following a decision on the merits of Rivas’s constitutional claims. Upon such a restoration of
    jurisdiction, the matter is to be referred to this panel.
    Hector Rivas has been incarcerated for the murder of Valerie Hill for nearly twenty years.
    Though we express no view on the merits of his substantive constitutional claims, in light of our
    holding that we cannot have confidence in Rivas’s continued incarceration unless we are assured
    63
    that he was convicted after a fair trial, we urge the District Court to take whatever steps needed, in
    the exercise of its discretion, to facilitate a full, fair, and speedy adjudication of the merits of his
    petition.
    64