United States v. Angelica Urias Espinoza , 880 F.3d 506 ( 2018 )


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  •                    FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,               No. 16-50033
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    D.C. No.
    v.                    3:15-cr-01330-LAB-1
    ANGELICA URIAS ESPINOZA,
    Defendant-Appellant.                OPINION
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Southern District of California
    Larry A. Burns, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted March 10, 2017
    Pasadena, California
    Filed January 22, 2018
    Before: Richard A. Paez, Marsha S. Berzon,
    and Morgan Christen, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Paez
    2             UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    SUMMARY*
    Criminal Law
    The panel reversed a conviction for importation of
    methamphetamine and remanded for a new trial in a case in
    which the district court excluded evidence of third-party
    culpability.
    The panel held that the district court necessarily abused
    its discretion by applying an incorrect legal standard when it
    excluded evidence of third-party culpability for failing to
    meet the “substantial evidence” threshold discussed in Perry
    v. Rushen, 
    713 F.2d 1447
    (9th Cir. 1983), and Territory of
    Guam v. Ignacio, 
    10 F.3d 608
    (1983). The panel explained
    that nothing in either Perry or Ignacio purports to modify this
    court’s standard for the admissibility of third-party culpability
    evidence under the Federal Rules of Evidence—“fundamental
    standards of relevancy.”
    Applying that standard, the panel held that the excluded
    evidence is undoubtedly relevant, and that a neighbor’s
    conviction documents were improperly excluded under Fed.
    R. Evid. 404(b). The panel concluded that the erroneous
    exclusion of evidence was not harmless.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                           3
    COUNSEL
    Michael Marks (argued), Federal Public Defenders of San
    Diego Inc., San Diego, California, for Defendant-Appellant.
    Colin M. McDonald (argued), Assistant United States
    Attorney; Helen H. Hong, Chief, Appellate Section; Laura E.
    Duffy, United States Attorney; United States Attorney’s
    Office, San Diego, California; for Plaintiff-Appellee.
    OPINION
    PAEZ, Circuit Judge:
    Angelica Urias Espinoza appeals her conviction for
    importation of methamphetamine in violation of 21 U.S.C.
    §§ 952 and 960. We consider whether the district court
    abused its discretion in excluding evidence of third-party
    culpability.1 As the district court applied the wrong legal
    standard in excluding the evidence of third-party culpability,
    it necessarily abused its discretion. Because the error was not
    harmless, we reverse Urias Espinoza’s conviction and remand
    for a new trial.2
    1
    Urias Espinoza also argues (1) that the exclusion of the evidence
    violated her constitutional right to present a defense, and (2) that in the
    alternative, she was improperly denied a minor-role adjustment at
    sentencing under United States Sentencing Guidelines § 3B1.2. As we
    reverse and remand for a new trial based on the district court’s error under
    the Federal Rules of Evidence, we do not address her constitutional or
    sentencing arguments.
    2
    We have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. § 1291.
    4           UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    I.
    On April 22, 2015, a Customs and Border Protection
    (CBP) agent stopped Urias Espinoza at the United States-
    Mexico border as she attempted to legally enter the United
    States through the Otay Mesa Port of Entry in California. As
    a Mexican national, Urias Espinoza had acquired a border
    crossing card that permitted her to legally enter the United
    States. In 2014, Urias Espinoza opened a business importing
    clothing from the United States to sell in Mexico; as a result,
    she crossed the border often to purchase clothes.
    At the border entry point, the CBP agent asked Urias
    Espinoza for identification and whether she had anything to
    declare. She provided her border crossing card and stated
    that she was not bringing anything into the United States.
    The border agent suspected otherwise, and after some initial
    questioning, decided to conduct a search of her vehicle with
    assistance from several other agents. The search revealed that
    the car’s rear seats had been hollowed out and stuffed with
    approximately twelve kilograms of methamphetamine.
    The government charged Urias Espinoza with importing
    methamphetamine in violation of 21 U.S.C. §§ 952 and 960.
    At trial, the government called two CBP agents to testify
    about the discovery of methamphetamine in Urias Espinoza’s
    car. Agent Tan testified that he noticed a bulge in the back
    seat of the car, poked around, and used a density reading
    machine, which recorded a high reading. Agent Tan further
    testified that he subsequently discovered cellophane packages
    underneath the upholstery of the back seats, and that Urias
    Espinoza did not react when he examined the seat and
    discovered the drugs. Agent Tan then handcuffed Urias
    Espinoza and called for backup. Agent Wallis testified next,
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA               5
    detailing how he retrieved both the drugs and a cell phone
    from Urias Espinoza’s car.
    Finally, Agent Perea from the Department of Homeland
    Security testified. He explained that Urias Espinoza had
    crossed the border fourteen times between February 27, 2015
    and April 22, 2015. He also relayed a string of WhatsApp
    messages found on Urias Espinoza’s cell phone that were
    date-stamped from the week before her arrest. The messages
    revealed a conversation that discussed delivery of a
    “product,” as well as Urias Espinoza’s plan to apply for a
    CBP pass that would have allowed her to gain expedited
    clearance when she entered the United States. Agent Perea
    confirmed that Urias Espinoza operated a clothing store in
    Mexico and that several receipts from Los Angeles found in
    her car matched the dates that Urias Espinoza previously had
    crossed the border.
    After the prosecution’s case in chief, Urias Espinoza
    presented her defense: that she did not know the drugs were
    in the vehicle she drove across the border because her next-
    door neighbor in Mexico had packed her car with
    methamphetamine without her knowledge and used her as a
    “blind mule” to smuggle the drugs into the United States. As
    part of her presentation, Urias Espinoza sought to present
    evidence from which the jury could conclude that her next-
    door neighbor knew she frequently traveled to the United
    States; knew that her car was parked on the street; knew how
    to obtain methamphetamine; was unable to drive across the
    border himself because of a prior deportation; set up Urias
    Espinoza as a “blind mule” to transport the methamphetamine
    into the United States; and then fled his home after he
    discovered that Urias Espinoza had been arrested.
    6            UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    The evidence Urias Espinoza sought to introduce in
    support of her defense was: (1) a screen shot of a Facebook
    page with her neighbor’s photo and a statement that “he’s
    been a drug dealer on the streets of L.A.,” (2) the neighbor’s
    prior conviction for possession with intent to distribute
    marijuana in Los Angeles, (3) the neighbor’s prior conviction
    for importation of methamphetamine, (4) the neighbor’s prior
    deportation, and (5) photographs of the neighbor. The district
    court excluded the evidence on the ground that the defense’s
    theory of what happened was too speculative.
    Although the district court excluded the bulk of Urias
    Espinoza’s evidence, she was able to introduce some
    information through the testimony of four witnesses. The
    witnesses’ testimony revealed that: (1) it was well known that
    Urias Espinoza traveled to the United States to buy clothes,
    (2) Urias Espinoza’s house and her neighbor’s house were in
    close proximity to each other, (3) Urias Espinoza parked her
    car on the street, and (4) shortly after Urias Espinoza’s arrest,
    the neighbor’s house was found vacant and in disarray. Urias
    Espinoza argued, however, that without the excluded
    evidence, the limited evidence that the district court did admit
    was insufficient to persuade the jury that her neighbor—who
    had the motive, knowledge, and opportunity to do so—set her
    up as a “blind mule” to transport methamphetamine into the
    United States on his behalf.
    After a three-day trial, a jury found Urias Espinoza guilty
    of importing methamphetamine and the district court
    sentenced her to a term of imprisonment of ninety months
    followed by five years of supervised release. This timely
    appeal followed.
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                   7
    II.
    We review the district court’s exclusion of evidence for
    abuse of discretion. United States v. Evans, 
    728 F.3d 953
    ,
    959 (9th Cir. 2013). First, we “determine de novo whether
    the trial court identified the correct legal rule to apply to the
    relief requested.” United States v. Hinkson, 
    585 F.3d 1247
    ,
    1262 (9th Cir. 2009) (en banc). If the trial court identified an
    incorrect legal rule, “we must conclude it abused its
    discretion.” 
    Id. If the
    trial court identified the correct legal
    rule, then we must “determine whether the trial court’s
    application of the correct legal standard was (1) illogical,
    (2) implausible, or (3) without support in inferences that may
    be drawn from the facts in the record.” 
    Id. (internal quotation
    marks and citation omitted).
    We conclude that the district court necessarily abused its
    discretion by applying an incorrect legal standard to
    determine whether third-party culpability evidence should be
    admitted.
    III.
    This case centers on the threshold requirement for the
    admissibility of third-party culpability evidence under the
    Federal Rules of Evidence. In United States v. Armstrong,
    
    621 F.2d 951
    (9th Cir. 1980), we set forth the standard for the
    admissibility of such evidence, holding that under the Federal
    Rules of Evidence, “[f]undamental standards of relevancy,
    subject to the discretion of the court to exclude cumulative
    evidence and to insure orderly presentation of a case, require
    the admission of testimony which tends to prove that a person
    other than the defendant committed the crime that is
    charged.” 
    Id. at 953.
    In other words, Armstrong dictates that
    8              UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    all evidence of third-party culpability that is relevant is
    admissible, unless barred by another evidentiary rule.3 We
    consistently applied this standard in a string of cases
    following Armstrong. See, e.g., United States v. Wells, No.
    14-30146, 
    2018 WL 377837
    , at *28 (9th Cir. Jan 11, 2018),
    amending 
    877 F.3d 1099
    , 1136 (9th Cir. 2017); United States
    v. Stever, 
    603 F.3d 747
    , 756 (9th Cir. 2010); United States v.
    Vallejo, 
    237 F.3d 1008
    , 1023 (9th Cir. 2001); United States
    v. Crosby, 
    75 F.3d 1343
    , 1347 (9th Cir. 1996).
    Despite this clear line of authority stemming from
    Armstrong, the district court excluded Urias Espinoza’s
    evidence of third-party culpability by relying on two cases it
    believed enunciated a different rule for the admissibility of
    third-party culpability evidence: Perry v. Rushen, 
    713 F.2d 1447
    , 1449 (9th Cir. 1983), and Territory of Guam v. Ignacio,
    
    10 F.3d 608
    , 615 (9th Cir. 1993). According to the district
    court, these cases stand for the proposition that “[e]vidence of
    third-party culpability is not admissible ‘if it simply affords
    a possible ground of suspicion against such person; rather, it
    must be coupled with substantial evidence tending to directly
    connect that person with the actual commission of the
    offense.’” 
    Ignacio, 10 F.3d at 615
    (citing 
    Perry, 713 F.2d at 1449
    ). The district court was mistaken. These cases do not
    enunciate our rule for the admission of third-party culpability
    3
    Federal Rule of Evidence 401 provides that “[e]vidence is relevant
    if: (a) it has any tendency to make a fact more or less probable than it
    would be without further evidence; and (b) the fact is of consequence in
    determining the action.” Federal Rule of Evidence 402 provides that
    “[r]elevant evidence is admissible unless any of the following provides
    otherwise: [] the United States Constitution; [] a federal statute; [] these
    rules; or [] other rules prescribed by the Supreme Court. Irrelevant
    evidence is not admissible.”
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                           9
    evidence, or establish a higher standard than that set forth in
    Armstrong.
    We begin with a brief discussion of Perry and Ignacio to
    explain why the district court erred in relying on those cases.
    We then turn to whether the excluded evidence satisfies
    Armstrong’s standard of relevance, and conclude that it does.
    Finally, we hold that the erroneous exclusion of evidence was
    not harmless and therefore reverse the conviction and remand
    for a new trial.
    A.
    In Perry, we reviewed the denial of Cornelius Perry’s
    petition for a writ of habeas corpus seeking relief from his
    state conviction for aggravated 
    assault. 713 F.2d at 1448
    . At
    his state court trial, Perry sought to present the testimony of
    a witness who was prepared to testify that another man may
    have committed the assault and that Perry had been
    misidentified as the assailant. 
    Id. at 1449.
    The trial court
    excluded the evidence under California Evidence Code
    section 352 (“Section 352”), which permits a court, in its
    discretion, to exclude relevant evidence, provided the court
    makes certain findings.4 
    Id. “[W]hen evidence
    is advanced
    that a third party may have committed the crime,” California
    courts have interpreted Section 352 to prohibit the admission
    of such evidence “if it simply affords a possible ground of
    suspicion against [another] person; rather it must be coupled
    4
    California Evidence Code section 352 states: “The court in its
    discretion may exclude evidence if its probative value is substantially
    outweighed by the probability that its admission will (a) necessitate undue
    consumption of time or (b) create substantial danger of undue prejudice,
    of confusing the issues, or of misleading the jury.”
    10          UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    with substantial evidence tending to directly connect that
    person with the actual commission of the offense.” 
    Id. (quoting People
    v. Green, 
    609 P.2d 468
    , 480 (Cal. 1980)).
    Perry argued “that the application of California evidence
    law violated his [S]ixth and [F]ourteenth [A]mendment
    rights.” 
    Id. at 1449–50.
    As a result, our task in Perry was to
    determine whether the trial court’s exclusion of Perry’s
    proffered third-party culpability evidence, under California’s
    Section 352, violated his constitutional rights. In doing so,
    we adopted a balancing test that weighed Perry’s right to
    present evidence against the State’s interest in “reliable and
    efficient trials.” 
    Id. at 1451.
    Ultimately, we concluded that
    Perry’s constitutional rights were not violated by the
    exclusion of the third-party culpability evidence under
    California’s evidence code, and we affirmed the district
    court’s denial of habeas relief. 
    Id. at 1455.
    Nothing in Perry purported to import California’s
    evidentiary standard—which conditions admissibility on a
    showing of “substantial evidence” connecting the third-party
    to the crime—into the Federal Rules of Evidence. In fact, in
    Perry we acknowledged that Armstrong laid out the proper
    standard for the admissibility of third-party culpability
    evidence under the Federal Rules of Evidence:
    “[f]undamental standards of relevancy.” 
    Id. at 1451
    (internal
    quotation marks omitted).        In asserting his federal
    constitutional claim, Perry attempted to rely on our decision
    in Armstrong, but as we explained in Perry, Armstrong
    provided no support for Perry’s constitutional argument
    because “[a]lthough [Armstrong] cit[ed] constitutional cases,
    [in Armstrong we] reviewed an application of the Federal
    Rules of Evidence by the federal district court . . . [and]
    [n]othing in Armstrong supports a belief that the Federal
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                 11
    Rules of Evidence are constitutionally required, or that the
    Constitution requires admission of all relevant evidence.” 
    Id. In Perry,
    therefore, we made clear that Armstrong’s
    “fundamental standards of relevancy” applies to the
    admission of third-party culpability evidence under the
    Federal Rules of Evidence; there is no requirement of
    “substantial evidence” linking the third-party with the actual
    commission of the offense. See 
    id. A decade
    later, in Ignacio, we relied on Perry to uphold
    the exclusion of third-party culpability 
    evidence. 10 F.3d at 615
    . Ignacio involved a challenge by Anthony Camacho
    Ignacio to his jury conviction in the Superior Court of Guam
    for first degree sexual conduct. 
    Id. at 611.
    Among other
    claims, Ignacio challenged his conviction on the basis that the
    trial court had abused its discretion in “excluding evidence
    about a defense theory of third-party culpability.” 
    Id. at 610.
    We noted that Ignacio’s claim “involve[d] interpretation of
    the Guam Code of Evidence, . . . [which] is identical to the
    Federal Rules of Evidence.” 
    Id. at 611.
    In affirming the
    district court’s exclusion of the evidence, we held that the
    trial court “did not abuse its discretion” in finding that
    “Ignacio had not presented ‘substantial evidence’ connecting
    the [third party] to the crime charged.” 
    Id. at 615.
    The government argues that Ignacio applied Perry’s
    discussion of “substantial evidence” to federal cases,
    essentially adopting California’s threshold for the
    admissibility of third-party culpability into the Federal Rules
    of Evidence. We disagree. We acknowledge that Ignacio’s
    analysis is less than clear. However, as the three judge panel
    in Ignacio was not free to ignore Armstrong and change our
    circuit’s law regarding the threshold admissibility
    requirement for third-party culpability evidence, we decline
    12          UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    to interpret the opinion as establishing a new rule regarding
    the admissibility of such evidence.
    At first blush, it would appear that Ignacio’s challenge to
    the trial court’s exclusion of third-party culpability evidence
    was brought under the Guam Code of Evidence, which is
    identical in its language to the Federal Rules of Evidence. 
    Id. at 611.
    In fact, as we noted earlier, at the outset of Ignacio,
    we stated that we were reviewing Ignacio’s claims under an
    abuse of discretion standard, the standard under which we
    review evidentiary objections. 
    Id. Subsequently, however,
    our substantive discussion of Ignacio’s claim was grounded
    in constitutional case law that balanced the “defendant’s right
    to present evidence which may exonerate him” against “other
    legitimate interests in the criminal trial process.” 
    Id. at 615.
    We cited to Chambers v. Mississippi, 
    410 U.S. 284
    (1973) for
    such a test.
    In Chambers, the Supreme Court held that, as a result of
    several evidentiary rulings by the trial court, the defendant’s
    trial “was [not] conducted in accord with principles of due
    process under the Fourteenth Amendment.” 
    Id. at 285.
    After
    citing to Chambers, Ignacio observed that we previously
    “articulated the standard for balancing the defendant’s
    ‘undeniably strong’ interest in introducing [evidence of third-
    party culpability] with the state’s ‘compelling’ interest in
    reliable and efficient trials.” 
    Ignacio, 10 F.3d at 615
    (citing
    
    Perry, 713 F.2d at 1451
    –52). In other words, Ignacio’s
    discussion is framed around a constitutional balancing
    analysis, suggesting that we either construed Ignacio’s
    argument as raising a constitutional claim under the Sixth
    Amendment right to present a defense, or we held Ignacio to
    a higher standard under the Guam Rules of Evidence by
    applying a constitutional framework to his non-constitutional
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                  13
    claim. Although we acknowledge that our analysis in Ignacio
    is less than clear, what is clear is that nothing in Ignacio
    purports to announce a new rule for the admissibility of third-
    party culpability evidence under the Federal Rules of
    Evidence.
    For the foregoing reasons, the district court erred in
    excluding Urias Espinoza’s evidence of third party culpability
    because it failed to meet the “substantial evidence” threshold
    discussed in both Perry and Ignacio. Nothing in either Perry
    or Ignacio purports to modify our standard for the
    admissibility of third-party culpability evidence under the
    Federal Rules of Evidence—“fundamental standards of
    relevancy.” 
    Armstrong, 621 F.2d at 953
    . We next apply that
    standard to the facts of the appeal before us. See 
    id. Taken together,
    the excluded evidence in this case is
    undoubtedly relevant, as it makes it more likely that the
    neighbor used Urias Espinoza as a “blind mule,” which would
    negate the mens rea element of the charged offense—Urias
    Espinoza’s knowledge. See Fed. R. Evid. 401. The district
    court instructed the jury that “the government is required to
    prove . . . beyond a reasonable doubt . . . . that the defendant
    knowingly brought methamphetamine into the United States”
    and that “[a]n act is done knowingly if the defendant is aware
    of the act and doesn’t act through ignorance or mistake or
    accident.” As a result, not only was the government required
    to establish Urias Espinoza’s knowledge to obtain a
    conviction, but such knowledge was a contested element, as
    Urias Espinoza did not admit to hiding the drugs in her car.
    Moreover, the government did not present any testimony
    from a witness who had seen Urias Espinoza load the drugs
    into her car. Given the circumstances, evidence tending to
    14           UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    show that someone else may have packed Urias Espinoza’s
    car without her knowledge is relevant.
    B.
    We turn to an examination of the individually excluded
    pieces of evidence, and conclude that each one is relevant.
    We further conclude that the neighbor’s conviction
    documents were improperly excluded under Federal Rule of
    Evidence 404(b).
    1.
    a.
    First, we consider the relevance of the neighbor’s prior
    convictions. Urias Espinoza sought to introduce documentary
    evidence of the neighbor’s prior convictions for importing
    methamphetamine and possession with intent to distribute
    marijuana. The defense argued that these convictions
    demonstrated Urias Espinoza’s neighbor had the “ability and
    motive” to find and transport methamphetamine. We agree.
    Specifically, the conviction for the importation of
    methamphetamine helps establish the neighbor’s requisite
    knowledge of how to obtain and transport methamphetamine
    in distribution-level quantities, thus making it more likely that
    he packed Urias Espinoza’s car with the drugs. Similarly, the
    conviction for possession with intent to distribute marijuana
    in Los Angeles demonstrates a possible connection to drug
    dealers in the United States who could sell the imported
    methamphetamine found in Urias Espinoza’s car. In
    combination, these convictions make it more likely that the
    neighbor had the knowledge and ability to set up Urias
    Espinoza as a “blind mule.” Moreover, the introduction of
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                  15
    these convictions would have been particularly salient when
    contrasted with the evidence presented that Urias Espinoza
    was a law-abiding citizen, thus lacking the requisite
    knowledge and connections to import large quantities of
    narcotics into the United States.
    The government argues that because the convictions are
    more than a decade old, they are not probative. We disagree.
    For the importation conviction, the conduct was exactly the
    same as here—importation of methamphetamine through the
    Mexican border—and is therefore probative. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Johnson, 
    132 F.3d 1279
    , 1283 (9th Cir. 1997)
    (permitting thirteen-year-old prior bad act evidence because
    it was “sufficiently similar to the charged conduct to render
    it probative despite the passage of time”); United States v.
    Ross, 
    886 F.2d 264
    , 267 (9th Cir. 1989) (“Given the
    similarity of the offenses [thirteen years apart], the prior act
    was not so remote as to require exclusion.”). Although the
    conviction for possession with intent to distribute marijuana
    is not identical to the charged offense, it is nonetheless
    relevant and minimally probative. The fact that this
    conviction involved the neighbor’s handling of a distribution-
    quantity of drugs, particularly in combination with the
    conviction for importation of methamphetamine, makes it
    more likely that the neighbor set up Urias Espinoza as a
    “blind mule.” Moreover, the conviction’s marginal probative
    value is not outweighed by any risk of prejudice to the
    government. Cf. Duran v. City of Maywood, 
    221 F.3d 1127
    ,
    1133 (9th Cir. 2000) (affirming the district court’s exclusion
    of evidence because its marginally probative value was
    substantially outweighed by the danger of unfair prejudice).
    b.
    16          UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    Having concluded that the conviction documents were
    relevant, we further hold that the district court erred in
    excluding them under Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b) as
    improper propensity evidence. Rule 404(b) bars admission
    of “[e]vidence of other crimes, wrongs, or acts where that
    evidence prove[s] only criminal disposition.” United States
    v. Cruz-Garcia, 
    344 F.3d 951
    , 954 (9th Cir. 2003) (internal
    quotation marks and citation omitted). As we have explained,
    however, Rule 404(b) is “one of inclusion, and if evidence of
    prior crimes bears on other relevant issues, 404(b) will not
    exclude it.” 
    Id. (internal quotation
    marks omitted). Under
    Rule 404(b), evidence of other crimes may be admissible to
    prove, inter alia, knowledge, motive, and opportunity. Fed.
    R. Evid. 404(b)(2); see also 
    Cruz-Garcia, 344 F.3d at 955
    (Rule 404(b)(2)’s list of permissible purposes “is illustrative,
    not exhaustive”).
    In Cruz-Garcia, the prosecution’s case largely rested on
    the theory that the defendant’s alleged co-conspirator was
    insufficiently intelligent to have trafficked drugs on his own,
    and thus must have received assistance from the defendant.
    
    Id. at 953.
    To rebut this theory, the defendant sought to
    introduce evidence of the circumstances underlying the
    supposed co-conspirator’s prior conviction for drug
    trafficking, which the district court excluded under Rule
    404(b). 
    Id. We reversed,
    holding that the evidence was
    relevant to a matter other than the alleged co-conspirator’s
    propensity to commit crime: it could establish that the co-
    perpetrator had the sophistication and intelligence to traffic
    drugs on his own without the help of the defendant, thus
    casting doubt on the defendant’s knowledge that the alleged
    co-perpetrator was hiding drugs and on his intent to conspire
    with the alleged co-perpetrator to deal drugs. 
    Id. at 954–55.
                UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                 17
    Here, the conviction documents Urias-Espinoza sought to
    introduce were relevant to establishing the neighbor’s
    knowledge and ability—not merely his propensity to commit
    crime. As discussed, the conviction documents could
    establish the neighbor’s knowledge of how to find and
    transport large quantities of methamphetamine. Similarly, the
    conviction for possession with intent to distribute marijuana
    in Los Angeles demonstrates a possible connection to drug
    dealers in the United States, and thus makes it more likely
    that the neighbor had the ability to sell the imported
    methamphetamine in Urias Espinoza’s car. As in Cruz-
    Garcia, this evidence was relevant to matters other than
    merely a third party’s propensity to commit crime, and so
    should not have been excluded under Rule 404(b).
    We caution, however, that our ruling that the conviction
    documents were admissible here is not transferable to a
    situation in which the government seeks to introduce similar
    evidence with respect to a defendant’s prior crimes under
    Rule 404(b). See United States v. Rocha, 
    553 F.2d 615
    , 616
    (9th Cir. 1977). This is because “the standard of admissibility
    when a criminal defendant offers similar acts evidence as a
    shield need not be as restrictive as when a prosecutor uses
    such evidence as a sword.” United States v. Wright, 
    625 F.3d 583
    , 608 (9th Cir. 2010) (internal quotation and citation
    omitted). Although Rule 404(b) does apply to witnesses and
    third parties,
    courts should indulge the accused when the
    defendant seeks to offer prior crimes evidence
    of a third person for an issue pertinent to the
    defense other than propensity. This is because
    404(b) is often thought to protect a defendant
    from being tried for who he is, not for what he
    18            UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    did. The guilt or innocence of the accused
    must be established by evidence relevant to
    the particular offense being tried, not by
    showing that the defendant has engaged in
    other acts of wrongdoing.
    
    Cruz-Garcia, 344 F.3d at 955
    –56 n.3 (internal quotations and
    citations omitted). Where, as here, the evidence is not
    introduced against a defendant, but rather is introduced by a
    defendant, the same protective concerns are not implicated.
    2.
    Second, we consider the relevance of the neighbor’s prior
    deportation from the United States. Urias Espinoza sought to
    introduce evidence that her neighbor had been previously
    deported from the United States. The defense argued that the
    neighbor’s deportation demonstrated why the neighbor was
    unable to drive the car himself, and needed to get someone
    else to do it. As a result of his prior deportation, the neighbor
    would be unable to legally cross the border on his own. As
    with the neighbor’s convictions, the neighbor’s deportation
    makes it more likely that he used Urias Espinoza as a “blind
    mule” to smuggle methamphetamine into the United States.
    3.
    Finally, we consider the relevance of the Facebook page
    and the photographs.5 Urias Espinoza sought to introduce
    several photographs, as well as a screen shot of a Facebook
    5
    We leave it to the district court on remand to determine whether any
    statements or other portions of the Facebook page are excludable on other
    grounds.
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                 19
    page containing an additional photograph of her neighbor.
    These photographs were used to identify the neighbor and
    link him to the conviction documents. At trial, the father of
    Urias Espinoza’s boyfriend identified the man in at least one
    of the photographs as Urias Espinoza’s next-door neighbor.
    The government conceded that the man identified, through
    witness testimony and photographs, as the next-door neighbor
    was likely the same man with the criminal convictions. As a
    result, these photographs make it more likely that Urias
    Espinoza’s neighbor was responsible for the drugs found in
    her car.
    In sum, the rejected evidence would have aided Urias
    Espinoza in demonstrating that her neighbor had the
    opportunity, motive, and knowledge to use her as a “blind
    mule,” all of which makes it more likely that he did in fact do
    so, which in turn would negate Urias Espinoza’s knowledge
    of the drugs in her car. The excluded evidence is relevant and
    should have been admitted, absent another basis for
    exclusion.
    The district court, however, did not clearly rule on
    whether the evidence was minimally relevant. Instead, the
    district court excluded the evidence because it determined the
    defense’s theory was “all speculation,” thereby failing to
    satisfy the rule that “substantial evidence tending to directly
    connect [the neighbor] with the actual commission of the
    offense” must be offered to satisfy the threshold standard for
    admissibility. 
    Perry, 713 F.2d at 1449
    (citation omitted). But
    as we have 
    explained, supra
    , “substantial evidence”
    establishing a link between the third-party and the crime is
    not a threshold requirement for the admissibility of third-
    party culpability evidence.
    20           UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    That the defense’s theory may be speculative is not a
    valid reason to exclude evidence of third-party culpability.
    See 
    Stever, 603 F.3d at 754
    (“[T]he district court is not free
    to dismiss logically relevant evidence as speculative.”);
    
    Vallejo, 237 F.3d at 1023
    (“Even if the defense theory is
    purely speculative, as the district court characterized it, the
    evidence would be relevant.”). If “the evidence [that
    someone else committed the crime] is in truth calculated to
    cause the jury to doubt, the court should not attempt to decide
    for the jury that this doubt is purely speculative and fantastic
    but should afford the accused every opportunity to create that
    doubt.” 
    Crosby, 75 F.3d at 1349
    (alterations in original)
    (citing 1A John Henry Wigmore, Evidence in Trials at
    Common Law § 139 (Tillers rev. 1983)). “[I]t is the role of
    the jury, [and not the district court] to consider the evidence
    and determine whether it presents all kinds of fantasy
    possibilities . . . or whether it presents legitimate alternative
    theories for how the crime occurred.” 
    Vallejo, 237 F.3d at 1023
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    We note that in its colloquy with counsel regarding the
    disputed evidence, the district court raised other concerns
    about the evidence’s admissibility. However, the court
    ultimately relied on the wrong standard by excluding the
    evidence for failing to meet the “substantial evidence” test.
    Accordingly, the district court abused its discretion in
    applying the wrong legal standard to exclude relevant
    evidence of third-party culpability. Under the correct legal
    standard of relevance, the excluded evidence was not
    inadmissible for lack of relevance.
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                  21
    C.
    The government argues that even if the district court erred
    in excluding the evidence of third-party culpability, the error
    was harmless.          We disagree.      “In the context of
    nonconstitutional error in criminal cases we must reverse . . .
    unless it is more probable than not that the error was
    harmless.” United States v. Seschillie, 
    310 F.3d 1208
    , 1215
    (9th Cir. 2002) (internal quotation marks and citation
    omitted). “The government bears the burden of persuasion
    and . . . [i]n cases of equipoise, we reverse.” United States v.
    Liera, 
    585 F.3d 1237
    , 1244 (9th Cir. 2009) (internal quotation
    marks and citations omitted).
    Here, Urias Espinoza was caught at the border with a car
    full of drugs, but consistently denied any knowledge of them.
    Accordingly, the sole issue at trial was whether Urias
    Espinoza knew she was smuggling methamphetamine, and
    the excluded evidence went to her knowledge. The
    government’s evidence with respect to Urias Espinoza’s
    knowledge was circumstantial and not overwhelming.
    For example, the government presented testimony from
    CBP Agent Tan who explained that he immediately noticed
    the back seat was bulging when the car approached the border
    inspection point. The government argued that because the
    bulge was so obvious, and because Urias Espinoza regularly
    drove her car, she would have noticed the bulge. The actual
    evidence was slightly more complicated than the government
    represents. On cross-examination, the defense cast doubt on
    Agent Tan’s assessment by eliciting more information than he
    offered on direct examination, including that the windows to
    the car were tinted, that he had used a density reading
    machine and not just his eyes to conclude there was
    22          UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    something hidden in the rear seat, and that he failed to make
    any mention of the bulging seats in the report that he prepared
    that day. Therefore, a jury could have reasonably concluded
    that the bulge was not as obvious as Agent Tan represented
    during his direct examination testimony. Nonetheless, the
    jury was not presented with a viable theory of who else may
    have placed the drugs in Urias Espinoza’s car, thus nullifying
    the effect of any doubt the jury might have had as to the
    veracity of Agent Tan’s testimony.
    The government also presented evidence that Urias
    Espinoza texted someone about transporting a “product,” and
    that Urias Espinoza was looking into getting a pass that
    would allow her to more expeditiously travel across the
    border. According to the government, this evidence
    demonstrated that Urias Espinoza knew she was transporting
    drugs and was attempting to ensure that she did not get
    caught. The defense, however, in closing argument,
    maintained that Urias Espinoza’s behavior was entirely
    consistent with the fact that she frequently traveled to the
    United States to buy clothes that she could resell in Mexico.
    In other words, in light of Urias Espinoza’s background and
    profession, there was nothing inherently illicit about her use
    of the term “product” or her desire to expedite her passage
    through a border inspection point. Again, a reasonable juror
    could have concluded that the circumstantial evidence
    presented by the government was not convincing, but the jury
    was left without a plausible alternative theory that a person
    other than Urias Espinoza placed the drugs in her car.
    Ultimately, then, although Urias Espinoza was able to
    poke holes in the prosecution’s case and offer innocent
    explanations for some of her behavior, the exclusion of third-
    party culpability evidence precluded her from answering the
    UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA                 23
    only question that mattered: “If [Urias Espinoza] did not
    know there were drugs in the car and did not place them there
    [herself], who did?” 
    Vallejo, 237 F.3d at 1023
    . As Urias
    Espinoza’s counsel readily admitted to the jury,
    Unfortunately, this is a question I cannot
    answer for you. It’s a question that Ms. Urias
    [Espinoza] cannot answer for you. Could it
    have been someone she ordered a product
    from?       Someone who lived in the
    neighborhood who had access to her car?
    You heard that it wasn’t in a garage.
    Someone who wanted her to pick up a product
    in the U.S.? Someone who wanted her to
    return something for them? Could it have
    been . . . a combination of people? Sure. I
    don’t know. We can’t tell you that.
    The government argued to the jury that the defense’s
    argument that “someone set [Urias Espinoza] up is
    preposterous” and “ridiculous.” We agree that the third-party
    culpability defense has little value when the defendant is
    unable to point the finger at a particular third-party. Without
    the ability to identify a particular individual who could have
    plausibly committed the offense, Urias Espinoza’s other
    efforts to cast doubt on the prosecution’s case, as detailed
    above, rang hollow.
    While the claim that Urias Espinoza’s neighbor set her up
    as a “blind mule” was “perhaps not particularly compelling,
    [it was] certainly plausible.” 
    Liera, 585 F.3d at 1244
    . “This
    is sufficient to defeat the government’s harmless error
    argument.” 
    Id. The excluded
    evidence could have provided
    the missing link to establish reasonable doubt for the jury: an
    24          UNITED STATES V. URIAS ESPINOZA
    actual individual who had knowledge, motive, and
    opportunity to use Urias Espinoza as a blind mule to smuggle
    drugs into the United States. We therefore conclude that the
    government has failed to meet its burden of demonstrating
    that “it is more probable than not that the error did not
    materially affect the verdict.” 
    Seschillie, 310 F.3d at 1214
    (internal quotation marks omitted). Accordingly, the district
    court’s error in excluding the evidence Urias Espinoza sought
    to introduce in support of her defense, on the basis of an
    incorrect legal standard, was not harmless. See 
    id. REVERSED AND
    REMANDED FOR RETRIAL.