AE Liquidation, Inc. v. , 866 F.3d 515 ( 2017 )


Menu:
  •                                      PRECEDENTIAL
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    _____________
    No. 16-2203
    _____________
    In re: AE LIQUIDATION, INC., ET AL,
    Debtors
    ANNETTE VARELA, on behalf of herself and all others
    similarly situated;
    JOHN J. DIMURA, on behalf of himself and all others
    similarly situated,
    Appellants
    v.
    AE LIQUIDATION, INC., ET AL, f/k/a ECLIPSE
    AVIATION CORPORATION
    _______________
    On Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Delaware
    (District Court No. 1:14-cv-01492)
    Honorable Leonard P. Stark, District Judge
    _______________
    Argued: December 7, 2016
    Before: FISHER, KRAUSE, and GREENBERG, Circuit
    Judges.
    (Opinion Filed: August 4, 2017)
    Christopher D. Loizides
    Loizides
    1225 King Street
    Suite 800
    Wilmington, DE 19801
    Jack A. Raisner   (Argued)
    Rene S. Roupinian
    Outten & Golden
    685 Third Avenue
    25th Floor
    New York, NY 10017
    Counsel for Appellants
    Mark E. Felger
    Barry M. Klayman     (Argued)
    Cozen O’Connor
    1201 North Market Street
    Suite 1001
    Wilmington, DE 19801
    
    Honorable D. Michael Fisher, United States Circuit
    Judge for the Third Circuit, assumed senior status on
    February 1, 2017.
    2
    Counsel for Appellee
    _______________
    OPINION OF THE COURT
    _______________
    KRAUSE, Circuit Judge.
    This case arises from the bankruptcy and subsequent
    closing of a jet aircraft manufacturer, and requires us to assess
    that manufacturer’s obligation under the Worker Adjustment
    and Retraining Notification (WARN) Act, 29 U.S.C. §§
    2101-2109, to give fair warning to its employees before
    effecting a mass layoff. On appeal, we are asked to determine
    whether a business must notify its employees of a pending
    layoff once the layoff becomes probable—that is, more likely
    than not—or if the mere foreseeable possibility that a layoff
    may occur is enough to trigger the WARN Act’s notice
    requirements. Because we conclude that a probability of
    layoffs is necessary, and the manufacturer has demonstrated
    that its closing was not probable until the day that it occurred,
    it cannot be held liable for its failure to give its employees
    requisite notice. Accordingly, we will affirm the judgment of
    the District Court, which in turn affirmed the judgment of the
    Bankruptcy Court.
    3
    I.     Background
    Appellants are former employees of Appellee Eclipse
    Aviation Corporation1 who were laid off when Eclipse
    unexpectedly closed its doors in February 2009. This
    shutdown was not expected because when Eclipse declared
    bankruptcy in November 2008, it reached an agreement to
    sell the company to its largest shareholder, European
    Technology and Investment Research Center, (ETIRC)2—an
    agreement that, if it had closed, would have allowed Eclipse
    to continue its operations. The sale, however, required
    significant funding from Vnesheconomban (VEB), a state-
    owned Russian Bank, and this funding never materialized.
    For a month, Eclipse waited for the deal to go through with
    almost daily assurances that the funding was imminent and
    the company could be saved, but eventually, as those
    assurances failed to bear fruit, the time came when it was
    forced to cease operations altogether. To explain why layoffs
    were not probable before that point, however, we must review
    the development of the relationship between Eclipse and
    ETIRC, and their prospective financing arrangement with
    VEB.
    1
    Eclipse’s interests in this litigation are represented by
    Jeoffrey L. Burtch—the Trustee responsible for administering
    Eclipse’s estate. For simplicity’s sake, we will refer to
    Appellee solely as “Eclipse.”
    2
    ETIRC formed a separate subsidiary entity,
    EclipseJet Aviation International, Inc., for purposes of this
    acquisition. For ease of explanation and to accord with the
    nomenclature used by the parties, we will refer to ETIRC and
    all of its subsidiaries simply as “ETIRC.”
    4
    The relationship between Eclipse and ETIRC began in
    2004 when ETIRC became both a customer for and
    distributor of Eclipse’s aircrafts. After three years as a
    customer and distributor, ETIRC became an investor in
    Eclipse in late 2007, providing Eclipse with a significant loan
    in exchange for preferred stock. Around the same time,
    Eclipse and ETIRC also agreed to a Memorandum of
    Understanding under which ETIRC was to buy aircraft kits
    from Eclipse to be assembled by a factory in Russia
    (“Russian factory deal”). This arrangement was to be
    financed in large part by VEB, and money generated from
    this project was expected to play a large role in ensuring that
    Eclipse could maintain its working capital requirements for
    the upcoming year. Shortly thereafter, in early 2008, ETIRC
    purchased additional preferred stock in Eclipse and, as part of
    a restructuring agreement, Eclipse agreed to appoint two
    representatives of ETIRC to its five-member board of
    directors. Following these investments, ETIRC continued to
    provide Eclipse with financial support as needed.
    In June 2008, the closing of the Russian factory deal
    became delayed and Eclipse began to run out of money. As
    Eclipse’s financial troubles mounted, its dependency on
    ETIRC grew and, after Eclipse breached its minimum cash
    covenant required to operate, ETIRC provided Eclipse with a
    $25 million unsecured loan to help keep the company solvent.
    Shortly thereafter, ETIRC’s Chairman, Roel Pieper, was
    named acting Chief Executive Officer of Eclipse.
    Despite ETIRC’s support, Eclipse’s solvency was
    short-lived. Although the Russian factory deal continued to
    progress and Pieper reported to Eclipse’s board of directors
    that the issues that had caused its delay had been resolved, the
    timing of the closing remained uncertain, and, by November
    5
    2008, Eclipse had again fallen below its minimum cash
    covenant. At that point, an ad hoc committee of Eclipse’s
    noteholders froze all company accounts, and Eclipse’s board
    of directors began to explore the company’s options via
    bankruptcy proceedings.
    The board of directors considered pursuing three
    possible courses of action in bankruptcy: (1) auctioning off
    Eclipse’s assets as a whole pursuant to Section 363 of the
    Bankruptcy Code, 11 U.S.C. § 363(b)(1), with ETIRC serving
    as a “stalking horse” bidder; 3 (2) auctioning off the
    company’s assets as a whole in a “naked” sale pursuant to
    Section 363—that is, conducting an auction without a
    “stalking horse” bidder, J.A. 960; and (3) liquidating the
    company pursuant to Chapter 7 of the Bankruptcy Code.
    ETIRC expressed a “genuine interest” in continuing Eclipse’s
    business, J.A. 960, and committed an additional $1.6 million
    3
    A “stalking horse” bidder enters into an asset
    purchase agreement with the debtor (in this case, Eclipse)
    prior to an auction. The price agreed upon in the asset
    purchase agreement must then withstand the auction,
    conducted in accordance with bidding procedures approved
    by the bankruptcy court. Thus, “[t]he purpose of a stalking
    horse in the context of a § 363 sale is to establish a
    competitive floor or minimum bid amount for the purchase of
    the debtor’s business, thereby preventing lowball offers that
    would fail to provide a minimum amount of value.” Rakhee
    V. Patel & Vickie L. Driver, Toto, I’ve A Feeling We’re Not
    in Kansas Anymore: Bankruptcy Sales Outside the Ordinary
    Course of Business, Fed. Law., February 2010, at 56, 58.
    6
    to help fund Eclipse’s operations while the two sides
    negotiated an agreement for ETIRC to acquire Eclipse.
    On November 25, 2008, Eclipse filed a petition for
    bankruptcy under Chapter 11 of the Bankruptcy Code along
    with an asset purchase agreement to sell substantially all of
    the company’s assets to ETIRC pending an auction. The deal
    included a provision that VEB would provide ETIRC with a
    $205 million loan, and, although the asset purchase
    agreement did not contain any express provisions requiring
    ETIRC to take on Eclipse’s employees, it specifically
    provided that Eclipse was to continue operating its business
    and retain its employees through closing. The Bankruptcy
    Court entered an order approving the proposed procedures
    governing the auction and sale, and an auction and sale
    hearing were scheduled for mid-January 2009.
    Eclipse did not receive any additional qualifying bids
    for the company, and, after a multiple-day sale hearing, the
    Bankruptcy Court entered an order on January 23, 2009,
    approving a second amended asset purchase agreement under
    which Eclipse was to be sold to ETIRC. Although ETIRC’s
    receiving additional financing was not a condition of the
    sale’s closing, the amended agreement stated that VEB had
    delivered a fully executed commitment letter confirming that
    it would provide ETIRC with a $205 million loan to finance
    the sale. Like the original agreement, the amended agreement
    did not require ETIRC to retain Eclipse’s employees, but did
    provide that Eclipse was to continue its full operations
    through closing. Lastly, although the agreement did not
    contain a specific closing date, it afforded both parties the
    option to terminate the agreement if closing did not occur by
    February 28, 2009.
    7
    In the month that followed, VEB took ETIRC and
    Eclipse on a roller coaster ride of promises and assurances
    that never came to fruition. Following the Bankruptcy
    Court’s approval of the agreement, closing was originally
    scheduled for January 29th, but it did not move forward on
    that date because VEB was unexpectedly insolvent.
    Nonetheless, Pieper reported to Eclipse’s board that he had
    been assured that then-Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin
    personally would make a decision on February 2nd as to
    whether the sale could still be funded. On February 3rd,
    Pieper and Daniel Bolotin, another ETIRC executive who sat
    on Eclipse’s board of directors, reported to the board that
    VEB would be recapitalized on February 5th, that there was a
    “high likelihood” the sale’s funding would be approved by
    the Russian parliament that same day, and that the funding
    would become available early the following week. J.A. 1001.
    Eclipse’s disinterested directors,4 however, were not
    comfortable with this uncertain arrangement and agreed that
    while they had “no reason to disbelieve” Pieper and Bolotin’s
    reports, they would “need to see specific documentation . . .
    evidencing the approval of . . . the recapitalization of VEB . . .
    [and] the approval of the [funding for the sale],” and, without
    such documentation, they would recommend that the sale be
    called off and Eclipse’s bankruptcy proceedings be converted
    4
    Although Pieper and other ETIRC executives were
    members of Eclipse’s board, all decision-making regarding
    the sale to ETIRC was delegated to Eclipse’s two
    disinterested directors, Kent Kresa, who previously served as
    chairman of General Motors Co. and chairman and CEO of
    Northrup Grumman Corp., and Harold Poling, the former
    chairman and CEO of Ford Motor Co.
    8
    to a liquidation under Chapter 7 of the Bankruptcy Code.
    J.A. 1003-04.
    Consistent with Pieper’s report, on February 5th, the
    Russian parliament approved the recapitalization of VEB and
    ETIRC’s funding, and Pieper was invited to Moscow the
    following week to sign documents finalizing the agreement.
    With the closing seeming imminent, ETIRC also agreed to
    provide additional funding of its own to cover the added costs
    Eclipse had incurred as a result of this delay.
    Pieper arrived in Moscow on February 10th, and
    informed Eclipse executives and the board the next day that
    while, much to his surprise, VEB had not yet been
    recapitalized, the final necessary meeting would take place
    later that week and VEB would receive funds on either
    February 13th or February 16th, with the ETIRC funds
    becoming available shortly thereafter. Bolotin described
    Pieper’s meeting with Prime Minister Putin’s deputy as
    “positive,” and Pieper indicated that “all of the background
    work in Russia has been successfully completed and all that
    remains is execution and timing.” J.A. 1012-13.
    At that same board meeting, Eclipse’s CFO reported
    that the company had become administratively insolvent as of
    February 6th and was on pace to run out of money the week
    of February 20th. In light of Eclipse’s dwindling finances, its
    disinterested directors resolved that if ETIRC had not
    received the funding or “satisfactory confirmation” of it by
    February 16th, they would recommend either a Chapter 7
    liquidation or that all but a handful of Eclipse employees be
    furloughed to preserve the company’s money while it waited
    for the VEB financing to arrive. J.A. 1015.
    9
    On February 16th, a Russian Governor appeared by
    phone at a meeting of Eclipse’s full board of directors and
    informed them that VEB had been recapitalized, that funding
    the Eclipse project was one of Prime Minister Putin’s top
    priorities, and that the Governor expected to have more
    information on the structure of the financing the following
    day. The board minutes also reflect that the Governor
    “expressed his optimism that the funding could occur
    rapidly.” J.A. 1017. This was enough to assure Eclipse’s
    disinterested directors that a conversion to liquidation was
    unnecessary at that time, but they agreed to move forward
    with the furlough if the funding did not arrive the following
    day. As an alternative possibility, the disinterested directors
    inquired of Pieper whether ETIRC could, at least in the short
    term, fund the agreement without the loan from VEB.
    On February 17th, Pieper and Bolotin reported to the
    board that VEB had allocated a budget to fund the sale and
    there was a possibility that funding would arrive as early as
    the next day. Pieper also disclosed that, in the event the
    funding was further delayed, ETIRC did not have the capital
    to fund Eclipse on its own. At a meeting of the disinterested
    directors that same day, Eclipse’s CFO informed the
    disinterested directors that, without further funding, the
    company was set to run out of money by February 27th. In
    light of this information, the disinterested directors agreed to
    proceed with the furlough to ensure that the company could
    continue through the anticipated closure. Accordingly, on
    February 18th, Eclipse employees were informed that “the
    sale of Eclipse Aviation is taking longer than expected” and
    that, although “all actions to date allow us to believe that the
    sale and closing of the overall process is well within reach,”
    they were being furloughed indefinitely in order to “make the
    10
    company’s remaining cash last as long as possible and give
    [Eclipse] the most time to complete the sale.” J.A. 1025.
    On February 19th, Pieper reported to Eclipse’s CFO
    that VEB had approved all documentation, that the money
    had been allocated, and all that was needed was the final
    signoff from Prime Minister Putin. The next day, the ad hoc
    committee of noteholders informed Pieper that, due to
    ETIRC’s failure to obtain financing, they had “no alternative”
    but to convert Eclipse’s bankruptcy to a Chapter 7
    liquidation. J.A. 691. Pieper informed the noteholders that
    there would be further meetings in Russia the following day,
    and that he would have more information then.
    At the board meeting on February 21st, Pieper
    similarly reported he expected the funding to be approved
    later that afternoon, and Bolotin confirmed that a meeting was
    occurring that afternoon at the Moscow “White House” and a
    final decision would be made at that time. J.A. 1027-28.
    When the board reconvened later that day, however, Bolotin
    gave the board the bad news that, contrary to all prior
    representations, Prime Minister Putin had not made a decision
    on the funding, because he “still had to think about it.” J.A.
    1028. Bolotin also reported that the Russian Governor who
    had assured the board a few days earlier that the funding was
    coming could not attend the meeting with Prime Minister
    Putin due to a medical emergency, and that Bolotin would be
    receiving a more detailed description the following day of
    what had occurred during the meeting with the Prime
    Minister.
    According to the noteholders’ motion to convert,
    Pieper did not show up for a scheduled meeting that day and,
    on February 22nd, informed the committee that problems
    11
    appeared to have arisen with the financing in Russia. When
    no further updates of progress from Pieper or Bolotin had
    been received by February 23rd, the noteholders informed the
    board and Pieper that they were ready to pull the plug on the
    deal and to file a motion to convert Eclipse’s bankruptcy to
    liquidation proceedings. Pieper asked for one more day to
    make the financing come through, and Bolotin advised the
    board that ETIRC’s Moscow attorney would personally call
    Prime Minister Putin the following morning to advocate for
    the project, expressing confidence that he could provide a
    final answer to the board the next day. The noteholders and
    disinterested directors agreed to wait one more day for a
    definitive answer, but adopted a resolution directing
    management to file a motion to convert the bankruptcy to
    Chapter 7 liquidation proceedings at 2:00 p.m. on February
    24th unless they received a “formal written commitment from
    the Russian Government” that committed to closing by
    February 26th—the day before Eclipse expected to run out of
    money. J.A. 1029-30. No commitment came that afternoon,
    and the motion to convert was then filed on February 24th.
    Once the motion was filed, Eclipse emailed its
    employees informing them that despite its best efforts,
    “closing of the sale transaction has stalled and our company is
    out of time and money,” and that because of the “dire
    circumstances in today’s global marketplace” and the lack of
    any additional funding, the company’s noteholders and board
    of directors had decided to convert Eclipse’s bankruptcy from
    a reorganization under Chapter 11 to a liquidation under
    Chapter 7. J.A. 1039. The email explained that this meant
    the prior furlough had been converted into a layoff, effective
    February 19th, and that the employees would receive
    12
    information regarding their benefits packages in the mail later
    that week.
    Eclipse’s employees filed the class action complaint
    that gave rise to this appeal—an adversary proceeding in the
    Bankruptcy Court alleging that Eclipse’s failure to give them
    sixty days’ notice prior to the layoff violated the WARN Act.
    After discovery, the employees moved for partial summary
    judgment, asserting that Eclipse could invoke neither the
    Act’s “faltering company” exception, nor its “unforeseeable
    business circumstances” exception to excuse its lack of
    notice, and Eclipse filed a cross-motion for summary
    judgment, contending that the “unforeseeable business
    circumstances” exception barred WARN Act liability. The
    Bankruptcy Court agreed with Eclipse and granted summary
    judgment in its favor. In re AE Liquidation, Inc., 
    522 B.R. 62
    (Bankr. D. Del. 2014). The District Court affirmed on appeal,
    In re AE Liquidation, Inc., 
    556 B.R. 609
    (D. Del. 2016), and
    this appeal followed.
    II.    Jurisdiction and Standard of Review
    The Bankruptcy Court had jurisdiction under 28
    U.S.C. § 157(b), the District Court had jurisdiction under 28
    U.S.C. § 158(a), and we have jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. §
    158(d). In reviewing bankruptcy court decisions on appeal,
    we “stand in the shoes” of the district court and apply the
    same standard of review. In re Global Indus. Techs., Inc.,
    
    645 F.3d 201
    , 209 (3d Cir. 2011) (en banc). Here, we
    exercise plenary review over the Bankruptcy Court’s order
    granting summary judgment in favor of Eclipse. See 
    id. We will
    affirm the District Court’s and, in turn, the
    Bankruptcy Court’s grant of summary judgment only if we
    13
    conclude “there is no genuine dispute as to any material fact
    and the movant is entitled to judgment as a matter of law.”
    Fed. R. Civ. P. 56(a). We must view the facts in the light
    most favorable to the nonmoving party and give that party
    “the benefit of all reasonable inferences.” Reliance Ins. Co.
    v. Moessner, 
    121 F.3d 895
    , 900 (3d Cir. 1997). We do not
    weigh the evidence; rather, we assess whether the evidence is
    “such that a reasonable jury could return a verdict for the
    nonmoving party.” Anderson v. Liberty Lobby, Inc., 
    477 U.S. 242
    , 248 (1986). Thus, in this case, summary judgment is
    only appropriate if no reasonable jury could find Eclipse
    liable under the WARN Act.
    III.   Analysis
    The WARN Act was enacted in response to significant
    worker dislocation that occurred throughout the 1970s and
    1980s when “[a]s companies were merged, acquired, or
    closed, many employees lost their jobs, often without notice. .
    . . [And] [i]n some circumstances, the projected closing was
    concealed from the employees.” Hotel Emps. & Rest. Emps.
    Int’l Union Local 54 v. Elsinore Shore Assocs., 
    173 F.3d 175
    ,
    182 (3d Cir. 1999). To ensure that laid-off workers and their
    families receive “some transition time to adjust to the
    prospective loss of employment,” 20 C.F.R. § 639.1, the Act
    requires employers to give sixty days’ notice to all affected
    employees or their representatives prior to a mass layoff or a
    plant closing. 29 U.S.C. § 2102(a). While it is undisputed
    that Eclipse did not comply with this notice requirement, the
    Act contains multiple exceptions, and Eclipse asserts that one
    of them—the “unforeseeable business circumstances”
    exception—bars liability in this case.
    14
    That exception must be offered by the employer as an
    affirmative defense and applies when “the closing or mass
    layoff is caused by business circumstances that were not
    reasonably foreseeable as of the time that notice would have
    been required.” 
    Id. § 2102(b)(2)(A).
    Specifically, the
    employer must demonstrate (1) that the business
    circumstances that caused the layoff were not reasonably
    foreseeable and (2) that those circumstances were the cause of
    the layoff. Calloway v. Caraco Pharm. Labs., Ltd., 
    800 F.3d 244
    , 251 (6th Cir. 2015); 20 C.F.R. § 639.9(b). Even if an
    employer establishes that unforeseeable events prevented it
    from giving notice sixty days in advance, the Act still requires
    that employers “give as much notice as is practicable” under
    the circumstances, 29 U.S.C. § 2102(b)(3), including, where
    appropriate, “notice after the fact,” 20 C.F.R. § 639.9.
    Appellants contend that Eclipse has not met its burden
    of demonstrating that the unforeseeable business
    circumstances exception applies for three reasons. First, they
    argue, as a threshold matter, that Eclipse is ineligible for the
    exception because, even after the fact, it never provided its
    employees with proper notice of their termination. Second,
    they contend that Eclipse cannot show that the purported
    unforeseeable business circumstance—its failure to close its
    proposed sale to ETIRC—was, in fact, the cause of the mass
    layoff. Third, they assert that, even if the failure to close the
    sale was the cause of the layoff, the exception still would not
    apply because the failure to close was not “unforeseeable” but
    rather could have been anticipated at many points in the sixty-
    day window prior to the layoff. We address these contentions
    in order.
    A.     Sufficiency of Notice of Termination
    15
    We turn first to Appellants’ contention that Eclipse
    cannot qualify for the unforeseeable business circumstances
    exception to excuse its untimely notice of termination
    because, even when Eclipse did eventually inform its
    employees that they were being laid off, the contents of that
    notice and Eclipse’s method of delivery were statutorily
    deficient under the WARN Act. See Sides v. Macon Cty.
    Greyhound Park, Inc., 
    725 F.3d 1276
    , 1284 (11th Cir. 2013)
    (“[I]t is manifest that a WARN Act employer attempting to
    circumvent the 60–day notice requirement must still give
    some notice in accord with [the other requirements of the
    Act].”). Taking the requirements of the statute and the
    Department of Labor’s implementing regulations together,
    any notice of a mass layoff must contain “(1) [t]he name and
    address of the employment site where the . . . mass layoff will
    occur, and the name and telephone number of a company
    official to contact for further information; (2) [a] statement as
    to whether the planned action is expected to be permanent or
    temporary . . .; (3) [t]he expected date of the first separation
    and the anticipated schedule for making separations; (4) [t]he
    job titles of positions to be affected and the names of the
    workers currently holding affected jobs,” 20 C.F.R. §
    639.7(c); and (5) when given less than sixty days in advance,
    “a brief statement of the basis for reducing the notification
    period,” 29 U.S.C. § 2102(b)(3).5 This notice must be “based
    5
    At least one district court has held that explicit
    reference to the WARN Act is required in order for notice to
    be proper under the statute. See Weekes-Walker v. Macon
    Cty. Greyhound Park, Inc., 
    877 F. Supp. 2d 1192
    , 1208 (M.D.
    Ala. 2012) (“Although by itself not sufficient, a reference to
    the statute, however, is essential to proper notice because it
    provides the affected employees with the framework for
    16
    on the best information available to the employer at the time
    the notice is served,” 20 C.F.R. § 639.7(a)(4), and delivered
    in a manner “which is designed to ensure receipt,” 
    id. § 639.8.
    Here, all of these requirements are met. After learning
    that Eclipse’s bankruptcy proceedings would be converted to
    a Chapter 7 liquidation on February 24, 2009, Eclipse’s
    management sent the following message, in pertinent part, to
    all employees’ work email addresses:
    We are very sad to report
    unexpected news today. Despite
    the efforts of many people at
    EclipseJet Aviation and ETIRC to
    obtain necessary funding to close
    the purchase of the assets of
    evaluating the validity of the defense. One cannot assess the
    propriety of a legal defense without first having knowledge of
    the existence of the law.”); cf. 
    Sides, 725 F.3d at 1285
    (affirming the District Court’s ruling in Weekes-Walker on
    other grounds, but observing that, even had the employer
    given timely notice, “[t]he alleged notice provided by [the
    employer] did not reference the WARN Act”). Here,
    Appellants have waived any argument Eclipse’s notice was
    deficient because it failed to make such an explicit reference
    by failing to raise it before the Bankruptcy Court, the District
    Court, or this Court. See Gonzalez v. AMR, 
    549 F.3d 219
    ,
    225 (3d Cir. 2008). Accordingly, although it may be a good
    practice for employers to make such a reference, we offer no
    opinion as to whether it is statutorily required.
    17
    Eclipse Aviation, the closing of
    the sale transaction has stalled and
    our company is out of time and
    money.         Given the dire
    circumstances in today’s global
    marketplace and the lack of
    additional     debtor-in-possession
    funding, the senior secured
    creditors of the Company filed a
    motion today in US Bankruptcy
    Court in Delaware to convert the
    Chapter 11 case to a Chapter 7
    liquidation. This action, under the
    circumstances, is being supported
    by the directors of Eclipse.
    What does this mean for each
    employee?        The furlough
    converted to a layoff effective
    Thursday,      February     19,
    2009. . . .You may have certain
    rights to seek payment in the
    bankruptcy proceeding; you may
    receive additional information
    about that from the bankruptcy
    court.
    . . . Later this week you will
    receive a termination package in
    the mail which will have
    information     regarding   your
    benefits.
    18
    J.A. 1039. The following day, Eclipse mailed those same
    employees termination documents containing information
    about their benefits and the phone number of the vice
    president of human resources who could be contacted for
    further questions.
    We perceive no deficiency in Eclipse’s notice. The
    February 24th email was clear that the layoff (1) applied to all
    sites company-wide; (2) was permanent; (3) was effective
    retroactively to the date of the furlough; (4) was applicable to
    all employees; and (5) provided specific facts explaining both
    the reasons for the termination and the delay in the provision
    of notice—namely, the buyer’s unexpected failure to obtain
    funding before Eclipse’s debtor-in-possession reserves were
    depleted, the dire financial conditions in the global
    marketplace, the unavailability of additional funds, and the
    noteholders’ resulting decision to convert Eclipse’s case to a
    Chapter 7 liquidation.6 Despite Appellants’ contentions to the
    6
    Although the email did not specifically provide the
    contact information for a company representative, the benefits
    letter, dated February 25, 2009, did, and Eclipse may claim
    the benefit of multiple communications combined for
    purposes of WARN Act notice. Kalwaytis v. Preferred Meal
    Sys., Inc., 
    78 F.3d 117
    , 122 (3d Cir. 1996). While we have
    held that the effective date of a multi-part notice is the date of
    the final communication when the initial communication was
    ambiguous on such a fundamental issue as whether the layoff
    was temporary or permanent, 
    id., we have
    not had occasion to
    address whether an initial communication would likewise be
    insufficient to stop the clock where that communication omits
    the contact information for a company representative but
    indicates more information is forthcoming, and that contact
    19
    contrary, this information was sufficient to “assist” the
    employees in “understand[ing] the employer’s situation and
    its reasons for shortening the notice period.” Alarcon v.
    Keller Indus., Inc., 
    27 F.3d 386
    , 389 (9th Cir. 1994).
    Lastly, the email informing employees of the layoff
    was delivered in a manner designed to ensure receipt.
    Although Appellants contend that the email was sent to the
    “wrong addresses” because Appellants had already been
    furloughed and no longer had access to their work email
    accounts, Appellants’ Br. 58, the record reflects both that
    Appellants had access to their work email accounts during the
    furlough, and that, when the furlough first began, members of
    management were told to instruct the employees in their
    respective departments to continue to monitor their work
    email accounts for further updates. Accordingly, we perceive
    no dispute of material fact as to whether the notice’s contents
    or method of delivery violated the WARN Act, and we turn
    next to the question of whether Eclipse may excuse its failure
    to provide notice at an earlier date by relying on the
    unforeseeable business circumstances defense—that is,
    whether ETIRC’s failure to obtain the financing necessary to
    finalize the sale was the cause of the mass layoff, see infra
    Part B, and, if so, whether that failure was reasonably
    foreseeable prior to February 24, 2009, see infra Part C.
    B.     Causation
    information is promptly provided the following day. We
    need not do so here, as Appellants do not challenge the date
    of the notice on this ground, and any such argument is
    therefore waived. See 
    Gonzalez, 549 F.3d at 225
    .
    20
    For the unforeseeable business circumstances
    exception to apply, Eclipse must demonstrate that the
    allegedly unforeseeable event was, in fact, the cause of the
    layoff. 
    Calloway, 800 F.3d at 251
    ; 20 C.F.R. § 639.9(b). For
    the reasons set forth below, we agree with the District and
    Bankruptcy Courts that Eclipse has made this showing.
    The WARN Act provides that “[i]n the case of a sale
    of part or all of an employer’s business,” the seller is
    responsible for providing employees notice of any mass
    layoff “up to and including the effective date of the sale,” at
    which point that responsibility shifts to the buyer. 29 U.S.C.
    § 2101(b)(1). When a sale proceeds on a “going concern”7
    basis, it is presumed that the sale “involves the hiring of the
    seller’s employees unless something indicates otherwise,”
    regardless of whether the seller has expressly contracted for
    the retention of its employees. Wilson v. Airtherm Prods.,
    Inc., 
    436 F.3d 906
    , 912 (8th Cir. 2006); see also Int’l All. of
    Theatrical & Stage Emps. v. Compact Video Servs., Inc., 
    50 F.3d 1464
    , 1468 (9th Cir. 1995).
    Relying on this presumption, Eclipse urges that
    because ETIRC had agreed to purchase Eclipse as a going
    concern and nothing indicates otherwise, the District Court
    was correct to find that the employees would have been
    retained (i.e., the layoff would not have occurred but for
    7
    Black’s Law Dictionary defines “going concern” as
    “[a] commercial enterprise actively engaging in business with
    the expectation of indefinite continuance.” Going Concern,
    Black’s Law Dictionary (10th ed. 2014); see also Day v.
    Celadon Trucking Servs., Inc., 
    827 F.3d 817
    , 828 (8th Cir.
    2016) (adopting same definition).
    21
    ETIRC’s failure to obtain the financing necessary to finalize
    the sale). In particular, Eclipse points out that Section 6.7 of
    the second amended asset purchase agreement, entitled
    “Conduct of Business Prior to the Closing Date,” expressly
    required Eclipse to “use commercially reasonable efforts
    to . . . continue operating the Business as a going concern,” to
    “maintain the business organization of the Business intact,
    including its agents, employees, consultants and independent
    contractors,” and to “preserve the goodwill of the
    manufacturers, suppliers, contractors, licensors, employees,
    customers, distributors and others having business relations
    with the Business,” while prohibiting Eclipse from “offer[ing]
    employment for any period on or after the Closing Date to
    any employee or agent of the Business unless [ETIRC] has
    determined not to make an offer of employment” or
    “otherwise attempt[ing] to persuade any such employee or
    agent to terminate his or her relationship with the Business.”
    J.A. 551-52. These terms, which expressly contemplate a
    going concern transaction and prevent Eclipse from
    disturbing any aspect of its operations or employment
    relationships strongly indicate that, had the sale been
    consummated, ETIRC intended to continue Eclipse’s
    operations largely as is.
    In addition, circumstantial evidence from the
    discussions leading up to Eclipse’s bankruptcy and the
    subsequent formation of the asset purchase agreement support
    the same conclusion. The minutes of Eclipse’s board
    meetings prior to its declaration of bankruptcy reflect that part
    of the reason it chose to pursue an auction of the company
    with ETIRC as a stalking horse bidder rather than a “naked”
    auction with no such bidder was to avoid “deep cuts in the
    Company’s operations,” J.A. 956, as the “naked” auction
    22
    would have required Eclipse to lay off 75% of its employees,
    J.A. 958. Moreover, when discussing the “employment base
    of [Eclipse]” as part of the sale, ETIRC “indicated [its]
    preference that the Company remain at its current
    employment size,” J.A. 964, and, at the sale hearing before
    the Bankruptcy Court, Eclipse’s counsel represented that the
    sale “would maintain the going concern” of the company and
    “preserve[] employment for hundreds of employees,” J.A.
    673. ETIRC’s counsel likewise stated at the sale hearing that
    there was a significant benefit to this “going concern” sale as
    it would “continue to provide jobs and the ability for
    customers who already purchased planes to service them.”
    J.A. 674. Lastly, as the Bankruptcy Court observed, ETIRC
    had set aside a sizable operating budget for the post-sale
    entity, and two high-ranking Eclipse executives testified that
    they believed—albeit based on their subjective impressions—
    that ETIRC did not intend to lay off Eclipse’s workforce.
    For their part, Appellants do not dispute that Eclipse
    was to be sold on a going concern basis and that such sales
    are presumed to transfer all employees, but argue that there is
    something that indicates otherwise: two express provisions of
    the asset purchase agreement, that, in their view, rebut any
    presumption because “there is no evidence that a single
    employee would have been spared termination” had the sale
    been finalized.8 Appellants’ Br. 32. Specifically, Section 7.2
    8
    Appellants also assert that the failure to finalize the
    sale could not have caused the layoff as a matter of simple
    “cause-and-effect logic” because the layoff was made
    retroactive to February 19th, and the sale did not fall apart
    until February 24th. Appellants’ Br. 26. This argument is
    easily rejected. Eclipse’s final decision to lay off its
    23
    of the agreement provides, “[u]nder no circumstances shall
    [ETIRC] assume or be obligated to pay . . . any claims of or
    liabilities of [Eclipse’s] Employees, including but not limited
    to, any claims or liabilities related to . . . liability under the
    WARN Act, salaries, vacations, . . . [and] severance pay . . . ,
    which Employee Claims shall be and remain the liability,
    responsibility and obligation of the Sellers.” J.A. 556. And
    Section 7.3 entitled “Employment,” provides:
    [ETIRC] may (but shall not be
    required to), in its sole and
    absolute        discretion,    offer
    employment to any and all
    individuals employed by [Eclipse]
    in connection with the Business as
    of the Closing Date . . . .
    [ETIRC’s] employment of any
    individuals previously employed
    by [Eclipse] shall be on an “at
    will” basis and on such other
    terms      and      conditions    of
    employment as [ETIRC] shall
    offer in its sole discretion. Except
    as otherwise agreed to in writing,
    [ETIRC] shall be under no
    obligation to employ or continue
    employees post-dated the noteholders’ February 24th motion
    to convert Eclipse’s bankruptcy to a Chapter 7 liquidation—
    the motion which, for all intents and purposes, marked the
    failure of the sale. Eclipse’s decision to make this February
    24th layoff retroactive to an earlier date has no bearing on our
    causation analysis.
    24
    to employ any individual for any
    period.     The employees who
    accept [ETIRC’s] offer of
    employment and who commence
    employment with [ETIRC] from
    and after the Closing Date shall be
    referred to herein as the “Hired
    Employees.”         Under        no
    circumstance shall any individual
    employed or formerly employed
    by [Eclipse] become an employee
    of [ETIRC] unless such individual
    becomes a Hired Employee.
    J.A. 556. Appellants assert that these provisions reflect that
    ETIRC “renounced any intent or obligation to hire [Eclipse’s]
    employees en masse at the closing.” Appellants’ Br. 27.
    We conclude Eclipse has the better of the argument.
    Although these terms freed ETIRC from any binding
    obligation to retain Eclipse’s employees and prevented it
    from incurring liabilities were it not to retain them, we agree
    with the District and Bankruptcy Courts that these terms are
    mere “boilerplate language address[ing] a buyer’s typical
    litigation concerns over successor liability and third-party
    beneficiary claims.” In re AE Liquidation, 
    Inc., 556 B.R. at 623
    ; see In re AE Liquidation, 
    Inc., 522 B.R. at 69
    (Bankruptcy Court observing that “such terms are boilerplate
    in going-concern sales and merely allow the buyer to pick
    which employees to retain”).          While such boilerplate
    language perhaps signifies that the sustained employment of
    Eclipse’s workforce was not a foregone conclusion, it does
    not rebut the presumption in favor of continued employment
    25
    in a going concern sale—especially in light of the significant
    evidence that ETIRC intended to carry on Eclipse’s
    operations had the sale been finalized.9
    In sum, the record supports—and at the very least
    does not rebut—the presumption that Eclipse’s employees
    would have retained their jobs had the sale been finalized, and
    the District Court thus did not err in concluding as a matter of
    law that the failure to obtain financing for that sale was the
    cause of the layoff.
    C.     Foreseeability
    We turn next to whether the failure of the sale was
    reasonably foreseeable before February 24, 2009—the date
    Eclipse notified its employees of the layoff.            The
    implementing regulations provide that an “unforeseeable
    business circumstance” is one that was “not reasonably
    foreseeable at the time that 60–day notice would have been
    required,” 20 C.F.R. § 639.9(b), but they do not define what
    makes a business circumstance “not reasonably foreseeable.”
    9
    In support of their argument that the sale’s failure did
    not cause the layoff, Appellants also cite to Pieper’s
    testimony at the sale hearing that he had not made any
    promises of employment to any Eclipse employee and had
    made “[z]ero” decisions as to what Eclipse employment
    contracts ETIRC would assume if the deal were approved.
    J.A. 662-63. When considered alongside the other evidence
    in the record, Pieper’s testimony, which, in context simply
    preserved ETIRC’s ability to choose at a later date the
    specific employees it would retain, also does not rebut the
    presumption of continued employment resulting from the
    going concern sale.
    26
    Instead, the regulations counsel that courts are to undertake a
    fact-specific inquiry to assess on a case-by-case basis
    whether, in failing to anticipate the circumstances that caused
    the closing, the employer “exercise[d] such commercially
    reasonable business judgment as would a similarly situated
    employer in predicting the demands of its particular market.”
    
    Id. § 639.9(b)(2);
    see also Loehrer v. McDonnell Douglas
    Corp., 
    98 F.3d 1056
    , 1060 (8th Cir. 1996). Likewise, under
    our case law, we consider “the facts and circumstances that
    led to the closing in light of the history of the business and of
    the industry in which that business operated.” 
    Elsinore, 173 F.3d at 186
    .
    Seeking additional guidance on how to assess such
    facts and circumstances, the District and Bankruptcy Courts
    have invoked the test adopted by the Fifth Circuit in Halkias
    v. General Dynamics Corp., 
    137 F.3d 333
    , 336 (5th Cir.
    1998), requiring that in order to be “reasonably foreseeable”
    an event must be “probable.” In re AE Liquidation, 
    Inc., 556 B.R. at 619
    ; In re AE Liquidation, 
    Inc., 522 B.R. at 69
    .
    Eclipse urges that this is the correct standard, and that we join
    the four Courts of Appeals, in addition to the Fifth Circuit,
    that have adopted it. See United Steel Workers of Am. Local
    2660 v. U.S. Steel Corp., 
    683 F.3d 882
    , 887 (8th Cir. 2012);
    Gross v. Hale-Halsell Co., 
    554 F.3d 870
    , 876 (10th Cir.
    2009); Roquet v. Arthur Andersen LLP, 
    398 F.3d 585
    , 589
    (7th Cir. 2005); Watson v. Mich. Indus. Holdings, Inc., 
    311 F.3d 760
    , 765 (6th Cir. 2002). Appellants, on the other hand,
    contend the Act does not set so high a threshold for notice
    and that reasonably possible outcomes, although perhaps not
    more likely than other outcomes, should be deemed
    sufficiently foreseeable to trigger the notice requirement. At
    the very least, Appellants urge that where two outcomes are
    27
    equally possible—in a game of roulette, for example, where
    the ball will land on either black or red—both must be
    considered “reasonably foreseeable” even though neither
    crosses the more-likely-than-not threshold. Appellants’ Br.
    38.
    Below, we will first address what standard should be
    applied when assessing “reasonable foreseeability” and then
    assess how that standard applies under the facts of this case.
    1. Determining the Appropriate Foreseeability
    Test
    In Halkias, the Fifth Circuit was presented with a
    defense contractor that was forced to lay off its employees
    after the United States Navy canceled a significant contract
    due to the contractor’s cost 
    overruns. 137 F.3d at 334
    . When
    assessing the appropriate test for reasonable foreseeability,
    the court held that anything less than a probability would be
    “impracticable” because cost overruns are a frequent
    occurrence that only rarely result in cancellation, although
    cancellation is a “possibility” each time an overrun occurs.
    
    Id. at 336.
    Thus, the court reasoned, if the mere possibility of
    a layoff were enough to trigger the WARN Act, contractors
    “would be put to the needless task of notifying employees of
    possible contract cancellation and concomitant lay-offs”
    every time such an overrun occurred, even though such a
    layoff was still not likely. 
    Id. at 336.
    In the nineteen years since Halkias was decided, every
    Circuit to have considered this probability standard for
    WARN Act notice has adopted it. See United Steel Workers
    of Am. Local 
    2660, 683 F.3d at 887
    (employer’s knowledge
    that economic downtown would hurt demand for its product
    28
    did not bar unforeseeable business circumstances exception
    because “[n]othing in the record suggests that the extent of
    the economic downturn and its effects on the steel industry
    were probable any time before [the time notice was given]”);
    
    Gross, 554 F.3d at 876
    (“[W]e do not rely on the mere
    possibility that layoffs will occur, but rather look for their
    probability.”); 
    Roquet, 398 F.3d at 589
    (holding that while it
    was “[c]ertainly . . . possib[le]” that accounting firm itself
    rather than its individual officers would be indicted, that
    possibility never rose to the level of “probable” and thus
    unforeseeable business circumstances exception applied);
    
    Watson, 311 F.3d at 765
    (adopting probability standard and
    observing that “WARN was not intended to force financially
    fragile, yet economically viable, employers to provide
    WARN notice . . . when there is a possibility that the business
    may fail at some undetermined time in the future.”).10
    Our Circuit has never directly spoken on this
    probability standard, but our adoption of it is supported by the
    discussion and analysis in our only precedential opinion to
    date addressing the unforeseeable business circumstances
    exception to the WARN Act. In Hotel Employees &
    Restaurant Employees International Union Local 54 v.
    Elsinore Shore Associates, 
    173 F.3d 175
    (3d Cir. 1999), we
    held that a casino’s closure was not reasonably foreseeable
    and that the unforeseeable business circumstances defense
    10
    Multiple district and bankruptcy courts have also
    adopted the Halkias probability standard. See, e.g., In re
    Jevic Holding Corp., 
    496 B.R. 151
    , 160-61 (Bankr. D. Del.
    2013); Law v. Am. Capital Strategies, Ltd., No. 3:05-0836,
    
    2007 WL 221671
    , at *13 (M.D. Tenn. Jan. 26, 2007).
    29
    therefore applied to excuse that casino’s failure to notify its
    employees prior to its being shut down by the New Jersey
    Casino Control Commission. 
    Id. at 187.
    While we did not
    explicitly address whether we found that the closure was not
    “probable,” not “possible,” or something in between, the facts
    that we recounted—including that the Control Commission
    refused to renew the casino’s license due to its financial
    struggles a month prior to the closure and that a Commission-
    appointed conservator struggled for an extended time to find a
    buyer for the casino—indicated that we were applying a
    higher standard more akin to a probability test. 
    Id. at 178.
    In dicta, moreover, we endorsed the logic of that
    standard, observing that the WARN Act was not intended to
    “require an economically viable employer to provide notice
    of a possible—but unlikely—closing” and that requiring such
    premature notice could have the perverse effects of causing
    creditors to refuse to provide the struggling company with
    further credit or prompting employees to unnecessarily leave
    their jobs—potentially forfeiting valuable future assets such
    as unvested benefits. 
    Id. at 185
    n.7. And we also noted that
    these unintended consequences not only would not serve the
    purposes of the WARN Act but “would increase the chance
    that an employer will be forced to close and lay off its
    employees, harming precisely those persons WARN attempts
    to protect.” 
    Id. Here, we
    have occasion to go a step further than we
    did in Elsinore and to join our Sister Circuits in holding that
    the WARN Act is triggered when a mass layoff becomes
    probable—that is, when the objective facts reflect that the
    30
    layoff was more likely than not.11 This standard strikes an
    appropriate balance in ensuring employees receive the
    protections the WARN Act was intended to provide without
    imposing an “impracticable” burden on employers that could
    put both them and their employees in harm’s way.12 
    Halkias, 137 F.3d at 336
    .
    11
    We emphasize that this probability test will always
    be an objective one, 
    Watson, 311 F.3d at 764
    , and WARN
    Act liability may not be avoided by an employer clinging to a
    glimmer of hope that it will remain open against improbable
    odds. Even the most well-intentioned subjective beliefs will
    not excuse failure to comply with the WARN Act’s notice
    requirement if they are not “commercially reasonable” in
    light of the facts that were available to the company in the
    sixty-day period prior to the layoff. 20 C.F.R. § 639.9(b)(2).
    12
    Of course, “reasonable foreseeability” may have a
    different meaning in different contexts and sometimes has
    been interpreted to mean less than a probability. See,
    e.g., CSX Transp., Inc. v. McBride, 
    564 U.S. 685
    , 703 (2011)
    (holding that, in the context of the Federal Employers’
    Liability Act, a harm is reasonably foreseeable unless “a
    person has no reasonable ground to anticipate that a particular
    condition . . . would or might result in a mishap and injury”
    (alterations in original) (citation omitted)); Indian Brand
    Farms, Inc. v. Novartis Crop Protection Inc., 
    617 F.3d 207
    ,
    226 (3d Cir. 2010) (noting, in the products liability context,
    than an occurrence is reasonably foreseeable if “in light of the
    general experience within the industry when the product was
    manufactured, [the occurrence] objectively and reasonably
    could have been anticipated” (citation omitted)). In the
    31
    Companies in financial distress will frequently be
    forced to make difficult choices on how best to proceed, and
    those decisions will almost always involve the possibility of
    layoffs if they do not pan out exactly as planned. If
    reasonable foreseeability meant something less than a
    probability, nearly every company in bankruptcy, or even
    considering bankruptcy, would be well advised to send a
    WARN notice, in view of the potential for liquidation of any
    insolvent entity. And, as we explained in Elsinore, there are
    significant costs and consequences to requiring these
    struggling companies to send notice to their employees
    informing them of every possible “what if” scenario and
    raising the specter that one such scenario is a 
    doomsday. 173 F.3d at 185
    n.7. When the possibility of a layoff—while
    present—is not the more likely outcome, such premature
    warning has the potential to accelerate a company’s demise
    and necessitate layoffs that otherwise may have been avoided.
    See 
    Roquet, 398 F.3d at 589
    (“[T]he WARN Act is not
    intended to deter companies from fighting to stay afloat . . .
    .”); 
    Elsinore, 173 F.3d at 185
    n.7. Thus, we join the many
    courts that have held this is not the burden the WARN Act
    was meant to impose and that a layoff becomes reasonably
    foreseeable only when it becomes more likely than not that it
    will occur.13
    WARN Act context, however, that lower standard is not
    appropriate for the reasons we have explained.
    13
    Appellants assert that the Halkias test unfairly
    “transfers the defendant’s burden to the plaintiff” by requiring
    plaintiffs to prove that a layoff was not “probable.” Reply Br.
    24. Appellants offer no support for this contention, and we
    reiterate that the burden of proof remains on the employer to
    32
    2. Application of the Reasonable Foreseeability
    Test
    Applying this foreseeability analysis to the facts of this
    case, we conclude that Eclipse has met its burden of
    demonstrating that ETIRC’s failure to obtain the financing
    necessary to close the sale was not probable prior to Eclipse’s
    decision to lay off its employees on February 24, 2009. The
    first relevant date we must consider for WARN Act purposes
    is December 26, 2008, the sixty-day mark at which WARN
    Act notice would have been due. At that point in time,
    Eclipse was preparing to be sold on a going concern basis via
    auction procedures approved by the Bankruptcy Court, with
    ETIRC serving as a stalking horse bidder. When no
    additional bidders materialized, the Bankruptcy Court held a
    sale hearing at which it heard multiple days of testimony
    before ultimately approving Eclipse’s sale to ETIRC under
    the terms of the amended asset purchase agreement on
    January 23, 2009. As it could hardly be said that the failure
    of the sale appeared probable to Eclipse on the very day the
    Bankruptcy Court approved it, Eclipse cannot be held liable
    for its failure to provide WARN Act notice to its employees
    prior to January 23, 2009.14
    demonstrate that the layoff in question was not probable at
    the time that WARN Act notice became due. See 
    Gross, 554 F.3d at 877
    (holding employer “met its summary judgment
    burden of establishing that [the unforeseeable circumstance] .
    . . while always a possibility, was unforeseeable”).
    14
    Although Appellants make much of Eclipse’s CFO’s
    deposition testimony that even prior to the sale’s approval
    Eclipse had “a fair bit of concern over the ability [of ETIRC]
    33
    Whether a reasonable jury could find that the exercise
    of commercially reasonable business judgment required
    WARN Act notice to be given at some point in the month
    between the approval of the sale and its ultimate demise is a
    more difficult question. As Appellants point out, Eclipse’s
    disinterested directors were demanding a more “concrete
    funding commitment” from VEB as early as February 2nd,
    J.A. 998-1000, and were considering converting Eclipse’s
    bankruptcy to a Chapter 7 liquidation on February 4th if such
    a commitment did not materialize. Although no direct
    “concrete” commitment from VEB ever came, Eclipse’s
    executives and its board received constant assurances from
    Pieper and Bolotin that funding was forthcoming in a matter
    of weeks and, as Eclipse began to run out of money, in a
    matter of days. While Eclipse’s disinterested directors were
    clearly perturbed by VEB’s delays15 and continued to discuss
    to provide financing to close the deal,” the CFO also testified
    that those concerns were resolved by Eclipse’s “removing
    financing as a contingency to closing and requesting to see
    commitment letters from the financers.” J.A. 904. While
    VEB’s commitment letters to ETIRC were not as “solid” as
    he would have liked, J.A. 904, he explained, he ultimately felt
    “comfortable enough that [the] money [wa]s going to
    materialize,” J.A. 906, and the Bankruptcy Court clearly
    agreed when it approved the sale on those terms. This slight
    discomfort with ETIRC’s financing arrangement does not
    create a factual dispute as to whether it was probable that the
    sale was going to fail on or before its final approval in late
    January 2009.
    15
    We note that while these constant delays were no
    doubt frustrating to Eclipse, they were not entirely
    34
    the possibility of liquidating the company without more
    definite financial commitments, they ultimately deemed the
    continual oral assurances they received from Pieper and
    Bolotin to be compelling enough to continue on a path
    towards closing.
    While these assurances may look like empty promises
    in hindsight, we must consider the decisions Eclipse made
    based on the information available to it at the time and “in
    light of the history of the business and of the industry in
    which that business operated,” 
    Elsinore, 173 F.3d at 186
    .
    This history included Eclipse and ETIRC’s business
    relationship for years prior to the sale, with ETIRC taking on
    an even more active role in Eclipse’s affairs in the months
    leading up to the bankruptcy. Moreover, Pieper and Bolotin,
    while acting as representatives of ETIRC through much of the
    sale process, were both members of Eclipse’s board of
    directors, with Pieper serving as Eclipse’s CEO. Thus, by the
    time the companies began to negotiate the sale, ETIRC and its
    representatives had repeatedly expressed their desire to keep
    Eclipse operational, and had proven their willingness to act in
    furtherance of that goal—filling board seats and providing
    financial assistance on multiple occasions to help keep
    Eclipse afloat. This longstanding relationship bears heavily
    unexpected and do not in and of themselves indicate it was
    likely the deal would fail. As the District Court observed, the
    asset purchase agreement expressly anticipated a prolonged
    closing period by providing a month-long “cushion” for the
    deal to close—until February 28, 2009—before either party
    was given the option to terminate the contract. In re AE
    Liquidation, 
    Inc., 556 B.R. at 620
    .
    35
    on our assessment of Eclipse’s expectations in the face of
    ETIRC’s continual reports that funding was on the way, for
    these were not grandiose promises from a stranger, but
    assurances from a credible business partner with a
    demonstrated commitment to Eclipse’s survival.16 With this
    history in mind, we review the specific assurances Eclipse
    received regarding ETIRC’s funding to assess whether the
    sale’s failure ever crossed the line from possible to probable
    before February 24, 2009.
    Considering first the assurances Eclipse received prior
    to Prime Minister Putin’s February 21st decision not to act on
    the funding of the sale, we conclude that before that point
    Eclipse had little reason to believe the sale would not close.
    While it was forced to encounter numerous frustrating delays
    as it had with the Russian factory deal previously, Eclipse had
    16
    Appellants contend that the history of the parties’
    business dealings cut in their favor, as the record reflects that
    VEB had been stringing Pieper along with unfulfilled
    promises of funding for the Russian factory deal since
    January 2008. Thus, Appellants contend that this “checkered
    history” of ETIRC and Eclipse’s business dealings with VEB
    “made the sale’s failure at least reasonably foreseeable, if not
    the likely outcome.” Appellants’ Br. 40. Although VEB’s
    prior failure to timely fund the factory deal is relevant to our
    assessment of whether a similarly situated employer would
    have recognized at an earlier date that VEB’s funding was
    unlikely to materialize, it does not by itself create a dispute of
    material fact when considered in light of the history and
    context of Eclipse’s relationship with ETIRC. See 
    Elsinore, 173 F.3d at 186
    .
    36
    received consistent positive reports from Pieper, who had just
    returned from Moscow where he met with one of the Prime
    Minister’s deputies, Bolotin, and a Russian Governor directly.
    These credible parties reported that VEB had been
    recapitalized, that funds had been allocated to the sale, and
    that the funding would be forthcoming in a matter of days.
    Although it was of course possible the funding could fall
    through, Eclipse had a reliable basis to believe it was more
    likely than not the funding would receive Prime Minister
    Putin’s final approval on February 21st and be dispersed
    shortly thereafter.17 Before February 21st, in other words, it
    appeared probable the sale would close, and no WARN Act
    notice was required.
    The last three days between February 21st and 24th
    present a closer question, as much of the optimism
    surrounding the sale appeared to have dissipated. Still, no
    reasonable jury could conclude that the sale’s failure became
    probable in that time frame. Eclipse had received every
    indication that the sale was about to close up until that point,
    and Bolotin’s preliminary report from the February 21st
    meeting—with more information supposedly forthcoming—
    indicated only that the Prime Minister simply “still had to
    think about” the sale further after one of his colleagues who
    17
    In addition to the reasons given above, Eclipse had
    even less reason to believe the sale would not close prior to
    February 17th, when ETIRC disclosed it did not have the
    capital to fund Eclipse without the VEB loan, even on an
    interim basis. As ETIRC had not made its proposed loan
    from VEB a condition of closing the deal, there was potential
    up until this disclosure that the deal could close even if the
    VEB funding was significantly delayed or did not materialize.
    37
    was heavily involved with the sale had missed the meeting
    due to a medical emergency. J.A. 1028. Although Pieper
    informed the noteholders on the 22nd that it appeared
    problems had arisen with the financing, it was not apparent
    what those problems were, and, on the 23rd both Pieper and
    Bolotin expressed their beliefs that any issues could be
    resolved promptly, with Bolotin promising a definitive
    answer by February 24th. As soon as the February 24th
    deadline passed with no positive report, Eclipse filed the
    motion to convert, and notified its employees accordingly.
    Although the chances of the sale falling apart may
    have reached fifty-fifty while the company waited to hear if
    and when Prime Minister Putin planned to next consider
    releasing the already-allocated funds for the closing, Pieper
    and Bolotin continued to reassure the board and the
    noteholders that any issues with the financing could be
    resolved and promised there would be an answer within days.
    Under these circumstances, and taking account of the
    historical relationship between the companies, it was
    commercially reasonable for Eclipse to believe that the sale
    was still at least as likely to close as to fall through before
    February 24th, so that no WARN Act notice was required
    prior to that time.18 See 
    Roquet, 398 F.3d at 589
    (holding that
    18
    Appellants insist that, at the very least, Eclipse ought
    to have provided its employees with conditional notice under
    20 C.F.R. § 639.7(a)(3). This regulation however, contains
    only permissive language, providing that “[n]otice may be
    given conditional upon the occurrence or nonoccurrence of an
    event.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    While conditional notice may
    be a useful tool to help employers ensure that they have
    complied with the WARN Act in close cases, such notice is
    38
    in-person meeting and subsequent ongoing investigation by
    Department of Justice regarding company’s criminal liability
    did not make company’s indictment “probable”); Burnsides v.
    MJ Optical, Inc., 
    128 F.3d 700
    , 703 (8th Cir. 1997) (holding
    seller was not liable under the WARN Act for “believing the
    sale would go through according to the . . . letter of intent”
    when buyer changed the previously agreed upon terms at the
    last minute).
    IV.   Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, Eclipse has met its burden
    of demonstrating that its eventual shutdown and layoff of its
    employees was not probable prior to February 24, 2009, and
    it is entitled to invoke the WARN Act’s unforeseeable
    business circumstances exception as a matter of law.
    Accordingly, we will affirm the order and judgment of the
    District Court, and by extension the Bankruptcy Court.
    not mandatory, and Eclipse cannot be held liable for its
    failure to provide it. See 
    Loehrer, 98 F.3d at 1063
    n.9.
    39