Wendy Wagner v. Federal Election Commission , 793 F.3d 1 ( 2015 )


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  • United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued En Banc September 30, 2014          Decided July 7, 2015
    No. 13-5162
    WENDY E. WAGNER, ET AL.,
    PLAINTIFFS
    v.
    FEDERAL ELECTION COMMISSION,
    DEFENDANT
    On Certification of Constitutional Questions
    from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:11-cv-01841)
    Alan B. Morrison argued the cause for plaintiffs. With him
    on the briefs was Arthur B. Spitzer.
    Ilya Shapiro and Allen J. Dickerson were on the brief for
    amici curiae Center for Competitive Politics, et al. in support of
    plaintiffs.
    Kevin Deeley, Acting Associate General Counsel, Federal
    Election Commission, argued the cause for defendant. With him
    on the briefs were Harry J. Summers, Assistant General
    Counsel, and Holly J. Baker and Seth E. Nesin, Attorneys.
    2
    J. Gerald Hebert, Scott L. Nelson, Fred Wertheimer, and
    Donald J. Simon were on the brief for amici curiae Campaign
    Legal Center, et al. in support of defendant.
    Before: GARLAND, Chief Judge, and HENDERSON, ROGERS,
    TATEL, BROWN, GRIFFITH, KAVANAUGH, SRINIVASAN, MILLETT,
    PILLARD, and WILKINS, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge GARLAND.
    GARLAND, Chief Judge: Seventy-five years ago, Congress
    barred individuals and firms from making federal campaign
    contributions while they negotiate or perform federal contracts.
    The plaintiffs, who are individual government contractors,
    contend that this statute violates their First Amendment and
    equal protection rights. Because the concerns that spurred the
    original bar remain as important today as when the statute was
    enacted, and because the statute is closely drawn to avoid
    unnecessary abridgment of associational freedoms, we reject the
    plaintiffs’ challenge.
    I
    The statute at issue, 
    52 U.S.C. § 30119
    (a)(1), makes it
    unlawful for any person “who enters into any contract with the
    United States . . . directly or indirectly to make any contribution
    . . . to any political party, committee, or candidate for public
    office or to any person for any political purpose.” This
    prohibition applies “between the commencement of negotiations
    . . . and . . . the completion of performance” of the contract. 
    Id.
    The Federal Election Commission (FEC) has construed the
    section not to apply “in connection with State or local
    elections.” 
    11 C.F.R. § 115.2
    (a).
    3
    The plaintiffs are three individuals who hold or have held
    federal contracts. The first two, Lawrence Brown and Jan
    Miller, spent much of their careers as full-time employees of the
    U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). Each
    went back to work at USAID under a personal services contract
    after retirement. The third plaintiff, Wendy Wagner, is a law
    professor. In 2011, the Administrative Conference of the United
    States (ACUS) hired Wagner under a consulting contract to
    prepare a report about science and regulation.
    All three plaintiffs wanted to make campaign contributions
    during the 2012 federal elections, but each was barred from
    doing so by § 30119. On October 19, 2011, they filed suit
    against the FEC in the United States District Court for the
    District of Columbia, challenging the statute’s constitutionality.
    The plaintiffs contend that § 30119 violates their rights under
    both the First Amendment and the equal protection component
    of the Fifth Amendment’s Due Process Clause.
    The plaintiffs have been careful to frame their challenge
    narrowly. First, they challenge the constitutionality of § 30119
    “only as it applies to plaintiffs and other individual contractors,”
    not as it applies to contractors that are corporations or other
    kinds of entities. Pls. Br. 1. Second, they do not challenge the
    statute as the FEC might seek to apply it to a contractor’s
    independent expenditures on electoral advocacy, as opposed to
    his or her contributions to candidates, parties, or political action
    committees (PACs). Id. at 40 n.5 (stating that the “[p]laintiffs
    have no interest in making independent expenditures”); Oral
    Arg. Recording 26:59-27:06 (same). Nor do they challenge the
    law as the Commission might seek to apply it to donations to
    PACs that themselves make only independent expenditures,
    commonly known as “Super PACs.” Oral Arg. Recording
    25:59-26:33 (“Super PACs . . . . are not at issue here; none of
    my clients wants to make a contribution to them or anything like
    4
    them.”); id. 26:59-27:06 (same). In short, the plaintiffs
    challenge § 30119 only insofar as it bans campaign
    contributions by individual contractors to candidates, parties, or
    traditional PACs that make contributions to candidates and
    parties.
    After considering the merits of this challenge, the district
    court granted summary judgment in favor of the FEC. Wagner
    v. FEC, 
    901 F. Supp. 2d 101
    , 113 (D.D.C. 2012). On appeal, a
    panel of this court held, sua sponte, that the district court lacked
    jurisdiction to reach the merits of the constitutional claims
    because the special judicial review provision of the Federal
    Election Campaign Act (FECA) “grants exclusive merits
    jurisdiction to the en banc court of appeals.” Wagner v. FEC,
    
    717 F.3d 1007
    , 1011 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (citing 2 U.S.C. § 437h,
    now codified at 
    52 U.S.C. § 30110
    ). The panel therefore
    remanded the case to the district court to make appropriate
    findings of fact, and then to certify those facts and the relevant
    constitutional questions to this court sitting en banc. 
    Id. at 1017
    .
    The case has now returned to us. But time does not stand
    still, and some important facts have shifted in the years since
    this litigation began. The plaintiffs advise us that both Wagner
    and Brown have now completed their federal contracts and
    hence are once again free to make campaign contributions. See
    Brown Supp. Mootness Decl. ¶ 3; Second Wagner Supp. Decl.
    ¶ 2. Brown, at least, has already done so. See Brown Supp.
    Mootness Decl. ¶ 3. Accordingly, Wagner’s and Brown’s
    claims are moot. See, e.g., Arizonans for Official English v.
    Arizona, 
    520 U.S. 43
    , 67-72 (1997) (holding that the plaintiff’s
    departure from her position as a state employee mooted her First
    5
    Amendment challenge to a law regulating the speech of state
    employees).1
    Miller’s contract is ongoing, however, and his constitutional
    claims therefore remain alive. But the mootness of the other
    plaintiffs’ claims matters because Miller’s injury is notably
    narrower than theirs. Whereas Wagner and Brown alleged that
    they wanted to support a variety of political “causes,” and that
    they had given to “PACs” or “political committees” in the past,
    Miller tells us only that he wants to contribute to “candidates
    running for federal offices and/or their political parties.”
    Compare Wagner Decl. ¶ 6, and Brown Decl. ¶¶ 6, 8, with
    Miller Decl. ¶ 7. Miller thus has standing to challenge the
    statute only as it applies to contributions to candidates and
    parties. See Davis v. FEC, 
    554 U.S. 724
    , 734 (2008)
    (“[S]tanding is not dispensed in gross. Rather, a plaintiff must
    demonstrate standing for each claim he seeks to press . . . .”
    (citation and internal quotation marks omitted)).
    1
    Although Wagner’s ACUS contract is her first, she says that she
    “expect[s]” to “be offered other similar opportunities in the future”
    because her area of expertise “is a very important topic for federal
    regulatory agencies.” Wagner Decl. ¶ 4. Brown also plans to seek
    future work with the federal government, “either as an employee or as
    a contractor,” and therefore “may or may not be subject to” § 30119
    at some future point. Brown Supp. Mootness Decl. ¶ 4. These
    possibilities are too speculative to sustain a concrete interest in this
    litigation. See Munsell v. Dep’t of Agric., 
    509 F.3d 572
    , 582-83 (D.C.
    Cir. 2007) (holding “that a live controversy is not maintained by
    speculation that claimant might reenter a business that it has left”
    (citing City News & Novelty, Inc. v. City of Waukesha, 
    531 U.S. 278
    ,
    283-84 (2001))). Neither Brown nor Wagner has argued that his or
    her injury, though capable of repetition, will evade review unless we
    make an exception to the ordinary rule of mootness. Cf. Spencer v.
    Kemna, 
    523 U.S. 1
    , 17 (1998) (explaining the situations in which that
    exception applies).
    6
    Our limited jurisdiction therefore narrows the plaintiffs’
    already-narrow challenge even further: the only issue properly
    before us is the application of § 30119 to contributions by an
    individual contractor to a federal candidate or political party. In
    Parts II through V, we address the plaintiffs’ First Amendment
    arguments. In Part VI, we consider their equal protection
    arguments.2
    II
    Since Buckley v. Valeo, the Supreme Court has instructed us
    to review different kinds of campaign finance regulations with
    different degrees of scrutiny. 
    424 U.S. 1
    , 19-25, 44-45 (1976);
    see McCutcheon v. FEC, 
    134 S. Ct. 1434
    , 1444 (2014) (plurality
    opinion); McConnell v. FEC, 
    540 U.S. 93
    , 134-38 (2003),
    overruled in part on other grounds by Citizens United v. FEC,
    
    558 U.S. 310
     (2010). Laws that limit a person’s independent
    expenditures on electoral advocacy are subject to strict scrutiny.
    McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at
    1444 (citing Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at
    44-
    45). Under that standard, “the Government may regulate
    protected speech only if such regulation promotes a compelling
    interest and is the least restrictive means to further the
    articulated interest.” Id.; see, e.g., Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 339-41
    .
    Laws that regulate campaign contributions, however, are
    subject to “a lesser but still ‘rigorous standard of review,’”
    McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
     (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 29
    ), because “contributions lie closer to the edges than to the
    core of political expression,” FEC v. Beaumont, 
    539 U.S. 146
    ,
    2
    We continue to describe the arguments as those of the
    “plaintiffs,” notwithstanding that only a single plaintiff’s arguments
    remain alive, because the plaintiffs presented their arguments
    collectively in a single set of briefs and oral arguments.
    7
    161 (2003). “Under that standard, ‘[e]ven a significant
    interference with protected rights of political association may be
    sustained if the State demonstrates a sufficiently important
    interest and employs means closely drawn to avoid unnecessary
    abridgment of associational freedoms.’” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
     (emphasis added) (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    );
    see Beaumont, 
    539 U.S. at 161-62
    ; SpeechNow.org v. FEC, 
    599 F.3d 686
    , 692 (D.C. Cir. 2010) (en banc).
    The Supreme Court has repeatedly applied this “closely
    drawn” standard to challenges to campaign contribution
    restrictions.3 And it has repeatedly (and recently) declined
    invitations “to revisit Buckley’s distinction between contributions
    and expenditures and the corollary distinction in the applicable
    standards of review,” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1445
    .4 So, too,
    have we. See, e.g., SpeechNow.org, 
    599 F.3d at 696
    .
    3
    See, e.g., McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1446-62
     (aggregate
    contribution limits); Randall v. Sorrell, 
    548 U.S. 230
    , 246-63 (2006)
    (plurality opinion) (state contribution limits); McConnell, 
    540 U.S. at 231-32
     (2003) (ban on contributions by minors); Beaumont, 
    539 U.S. at 161-63
     (2003) (ban on corporate contributions); FEC v. Colo.
    Republican Fed. Campaign Comm., 
    533 U.S. 431
    , 456-65 (2001)
    (limits on party expenditures that are coordinated with candidates);
    Nixon v. Shrink Mo. Gov’t PAC, 
    528 U.S. 377
    , 386-95 (2000) (state
    contribution limits); Cal. Med. Ass’n v. FEC, 
    453 U.S. 182
    , 196-99
    (1981) (plurality opinion) (limits on contributions to multicandidate
    committees).
    4
    See, e.g., Shrink Mo. Gov’t PAC, 
    528 U.S. at 406-10
     (Kennedy,
    J., dissenting); Colo. Republican Fed. Campaign Comm. v. FEC, 
    518 U.S. 604
    , 635-640 (1996) (Thomas, J., concurring in the judgment and
    dissenting in part); see also SpeechNow.org, 
    599 F.3d at 696
     (noting
    that the “Citizens United Court avoided ‘reconsider[ing] whether
    contribution limits should be subjected to rigorous First Amendment
    scrutiny’” (quoting Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 359
    )).
    8
    The plaintiffs argue that we should nonetheless apply strict
    scrutiny here because § 30119 does not merely limit
    contributions, but bans them entirely. As the plaintiffs
    recognize, however, the Supreme Court expressly rejected this
    argument in FEC v. Beaumont, concluding that both limits and
    bans on contributions are subject to the same “closely drawn”
    standard. 
    539 U.S. at 161-63
    . “This argument,” the Court said,
    “overlooks the basic premise we have followed in setting First
    Amendment standards for reviewing political financial
    restrictions: the level of scrutiny is based on the importance of
    the ‘political activity at issue’ to effective speech or political
    association.” 
    Id. at 161
     (quoting FEC v. Mass. Citizens for Life,
    Inc., 
    479 U.S. 238
    , 259 (1986)). “It is not that the difference
    between a ban and a limit is to be ignored; it is just that the time
    to consider it is when applying scrutiny at the level selected, not
    in selecting the standard of review itself.” Id. at 162. Indeed,
    although the plaintiffs insist that “[t]he closest case” to this one
    is McConnell v. FEC, which struck down a ban on contributions
    by persons under the age of eighteen, Pls. Br. 39, McConnell
    itself applied the “closely drawn” test, citing Beaumont. See
    McConnell, 
    540 U.S. at 231-32
    .
    The plaintiffs further maintain that Citizens United v. FEC
    “casts doubt” on Beaumont. Pls. Br. 40. We do not see the
    basis for that claim. The plaintiffs correctly note that Citizens
    United “applied strict scrutiny to the ban on for-profit corporate
    independent expenditures.” 
    Id.
     But the reason for applying
    strict scrutiny was not that the case involved a ban, but that it
    involved independent expenditures rather than contributions.
    See 
    558 U.S. at 359
    . Accordingly, the “closely drawn” standard
    remains the appropriate one for review of a ban on campaign
    contributions. See Republican Nat’l Comm. v. FEC, 
    698 F. Supp. 2d 150
    , 156 (D.D.C.), summ. aff’d, 
    561 U.S. 1040
     (2010);
    Yamada v. Snipes, No. 12-17845, 
    2015 WL 2384944
    , at *19 &
    n.17 (9th Cir. May 20, 2015); Preston v. Leake, 
    660 F.3d 726
    ,
    9
    734-35 (4th Cir. 2011); Green Party of Conn. v. Garfield, 
    616 F.3d 189
    , 199 (2d Cir. 2010).
    There is one respect, however, in which the “closely drawn”
    standard may not be a perfect fit for this case. But that
    consideration would cut in favor of a more, rather than less,
    deferential standard of review. Section 30119 is a restriction on
    First Amendment activity aimed only at those who choose to
    work for the federal government. To be sure, citizens do not
    check their First Amendment rights at the agency door.5
    Nonetheless, the Court has “consistently given greater deference
    to government predictions of harm used to justify restriction of
    employee speech than to predictions of harm used to justify
    restrictions on the speech of the public at large.” Bd. of Cnty.
    Comm’rs v. Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. 668
    , 676 (1996) (internal
    quotation marks omitted); see, e.g., U.S. Civil Serv. Comm’n v.
    Nat’l Ass’n of Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. 548
    , 566-67 (1973);
    United Pub. Workers of Am. v. Mitchell, 
    330 U.S. 75
    , 99 (1947).
    In so doing, the Court has held that the government may
    “maintain a statutory restriction on employee speech” if it is
    “able to satisfy a balancing test of the Pickering form.” United
    States v. Nat’l Treasury Emps. Union (NTEU), 
    513 U.S. 454
    ,
    467 (1995) (referring to Pickering v. Bd. of Educ. of Twp. High
    Sch. Dist. 205, 
    391 U.S. 563
    , 568 (1968)).6
    5
    See Bd. of Cnty. Comm’rs v. Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. 668
    , 674 (1996)
    (noting that the Court’s “precedents have long since rejected Justice
    Holmes’ famous dictum, that a policeman ‘may have a constitutional
    right to talk politics, but he has no constitutional right to be a
    policeman’” (quoting McAuliffe v. Mayor of New Bedford, 
    29 N.E. 517
    , 517 (Mass. 1892))).
    6
    Under the Pickering test, a court must “‘arrive at a balance
    between the interests of the [employee], as a citizen, in commenting
    upon matters of public concern and the interest of the State, as an
    employer, in promoting the efficiency of the public services it
    10
    Although the plaintiffs are contractors rather than
    employees, they acknowledge that their positions are often
    indistinguishable from those of employees. Pls. Br. 17, 19; see
    Miller Decl. ¶¶ 6-7 (stating that “the nature of the work
    performed by an individual rarely varied depending on whether
    the person was an employee or a contractor,” and that “in almost
    every respect” his relationship to his agency and supervisor is
    “identical” to that of an employee); see also District Court
    Findings of Fact ¶ 13 [hereinafter D. Ct. Findings]. In fact, two
    of the plaintiffs “are retired employees from the same agency
    where they [were hired as] contractual consultants [to] do much
    the same work they previously did.” Pls. Br. 35-36. The
    plaintiffs further acknowledge, in light of the case law described
    above, that Congress has greater latitude to restrict the
    expression of both employees and government contractors than
    it does with respect to the general public. See Oral Arg.
    Recording 6:00-08, 14:21-33. Indeed, the Court has expressly
    extended the Pickering balancing test to cases involving
    government contractors. See Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. at 684-85
    (holding that there is no “difference of constitutional magnitude
    between independent contractors and employees” in the context
    of a speech-retaliation claim, and “that the same form of
    [Pickering] balancing analysis should apply to each” (internal
    quotation marks and citation omitted)); see also O’Hare Truck
    Serv., Inc. v. City of Northlake, 
    518 U.S. 712
    , 719-20 (1996).
    To resolve this case, we need not precisely parse the way in
    which the “closely drawn” standard intersects with or differs
    from the Pickering balancing test. It will suffice for us to
    proceed under the rubric of the former, since it is -- if anything
    -- the less deferential standard. In doing so, however, we will
    take into account the considerations that the Supreme Court has
    performs through its employees.’” NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 465-66
    (quoting Pickering, 
    391 U.S. at 568
    ).
    11
    indicated are particularly relevant in evaluating restrictions the
    government imposes in its role as employer. We therefore now
    proceed to examine whether, with respect to § 30119, the
    government has “‘demonstrate[d] a sufficiently important
    interest and employ[ed] means closely drawn to avoid
    unnecessary abridgment of associational freedoms.’”
    McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
     (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    ).
    III
    Our initial responsibility under the “closely drawn” standard
    is to determine whether the government has advanced a
    “sufficiently important interest” in support of § 30119. The
    FEC argues that there are two such interests, each of which has
    been accepted by the Supreme Court as sufficient to warrant
    appropriate restrictions on First Amendment rights. We briefly
    address the sufficiency of each of those interests in the abstract,
    before turning to whether they are properly invoked in light of
    the particular problems that § 30119 addresses.
    A
    The two interests asserted by the government are: (1)
    protection against quid pro quo corruption and its appearance,
    and (2) protection against interference with merit-based public
    administration.
    The first interest is the most significant, as the Supreme
    Court has repeatedly held that “the Government’s interest in
    preventing quid pro quo corruption or its appearance [is]
    ‘sufficiently important’” to justify the regulation of campaign
    contributions. McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1445
     (quoting
    Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 26-27
    ). In fact, the Court has “stated that
    the same interest may properly be labeled ‘compelling,’ so that
    12
    the interest would satisfy even strict scrutiny.” 
    Id.
     at 1445
    (citing FEC v. Nat’l Conservative Political Action Comm., 
    470 U.S. 480
    , 496-97 (1985)). As the Court has explained, “[t]hat
    Latin phrase captures the notion of a direct exchange of an
    official act for money,” id. at 1441, and such exchanges
    undermine “the integrity of our system of representative
    democracy,” Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 26-27
    . “Of almost equal
    concern [is] . . . the appearance of corruption,” which threatens
    “‘confidence in the system of representative Government.’” 
    Id. at 27
     (quoting Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 565
    ). Therefore, if
    the FEC shows that § 30119 furthers the interest in combating
    quid pro quo corruption or its appearance, that will suffice to
    clear the “closely drawn” standard’s first hurdle.7
    The second interest is also significant, and in combination
    with the first makes this case even stronger for the FEC.
    Although the Supreme Court has identified no congressional
    objective beyond protection against quid pro quo corruption and
    its appearance that warrants imposing campaign finance
    restrictions on the citizenry at large, see McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1450
    ; Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 359
    , it has “upheld a
    narrow class of speech restrictions that operate to the
    disadvantage of certain persons, . . . . based on an interest in
    allowing governmental entities to perform their functions,”
    Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at
    341 (citing, inter alia, Letter
    Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 557
    ). That narrow class of approved
    speech restrictions includes the Hatch Act’s limits on political
    activities by federal employees, which, as the Court put it in
    Citizens United, rest on the principle that “‘[f]ederal service
    should depend upon meritorious performance rather than
    political service.’” 
    558 U.S. at 341
     (quoting Letter Carriers,
    
    413 U.S. at 557
    ).
    7
    Throughout this opinion, when we use the terms “corruption” or
    its “appearance,” we refer to the quid pro quo variety.
    13
    The Court’s cases indicate that this interest in protecting
    merit-based public administration has two distinct but mutually
    reinforcing components. The first is that the Government
    “operate effectively and fairly,” Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 564
    , which in turn comprises a series of interrelated concerns.
    The “‘interest of the [government], as an employer, in
    promoting the efficiency of the public services it performs
    through its employees,’” 
    id.
     (emphasis added) (quoting
    Pickering, 
    391 U.S. at 568
    ), is perhaps best captured by the
    Court’s rationale for upholding the original 1876 employee
    contribution ban: “If . . . a refusal [to make political
    contributions] may lead to putting good men out of the service,
    liberal payments may be made the ground for keeping poor ones
    in.” Ex parte Curtis, 
    106 U.S. 371
    , 375 (1882). The related
    interest in operating fairly is the “great end of Government -- the
    impartial execution of the laws.” Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 565
    . “It seems fundamental,” the Court has said, that “those
    working for [Government] agencies, should administer the law
    in accordance with the will of Congress, rather than in
    accordance with their own or the will of a political party.” 
    Id. at 564-65
    . In this regard, “it is not only important that the
    Government and its employees in fact avoid practicing political
    justice, but it is also critical that they appear to the public to be
    avoiding it, if confidence in the system of representative
    Government is not to be eroded to a disastrous extent.” 
    Id. at 565
    .
    The flip side of the interest in governmental efficiency and
    fairness is the employees’ interest in being “sufficiently free
    from improper influence” or coercion, which the government
    may also vindicate on their behalf. 
    Id.
     As the Court has
    explained, it upheld the Hatch Act’s restrictions on “political
    campaigning” by federal employees in part because, in the
    Court’s “judgment[,] . . . congressional subordination of those
    activities was permissible to safeguard the core interests of
    14
    individual belief and association.” Elrod v. Burns, 
    427 U.S. 347
    , 371 (1976). See NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 471
     (explaining that
    “the Hatch Act aimed to protect employees’ rights, notably their
    right to free expression, rather than to restrict those rights”);
    Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 566
     (identifying an interest, “as
    important as any other,” in “mak[ing] sure that Government
    employees would be free from pressure and from express or tacit
    invitation to . . . perform political chores in order to curry favor
    with their superiors”); Ex parte Curtis, 
    106 U.S. at 374
    (identifying “the protection of those in the public service against
    unjust exactions” as an independently sufficient basis for
    upholding the 1876 statute restricting contributions by federal
    employees).
    The Supreme Court has repeatedly credited these
    “obviously important interests sought to be served by . . .
    limitations on partisan political activities,” Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 564
    , for over a century.8 And there is no reason why
    they should not be heard in support of restrictions on contractors
    as well as regular employees. Cf. NASA v. Nelson, 
    562 U.S. 134
    , 150 (2011) (rejecting the respondents’ argument that,
    “because they are contract employees and not civil servants, the
    Government’s broad authority in managing its affairs should
    apply with diminished force”); Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. at 676-79
    (noting that, under the Pickering balancing test, “‘[t]he
    government’s interest in achieving its goals as effectively and
    efficiently as possible is elevated . . . to a significant one when
    it acts as employer,’” and holding that Pickering applies to
    claims by independent contractors that they were terminated for
    8
    See, e.g., Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 341
    ; NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 471
    ; Elrod, 
    427 U.S. at 370
    ; Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 27
    ; Letter Carriers,
    
    413 U.S. at 557
    ; Mitchell, 
    330 U.S. at 98
    ; Ex parte Curtis, 
    106 U.S. at 374-75
    .
    15
    their speech (quoting Waters v. Churchill, 
    511 U.S. 661
    , 675
    (1994) (plurality opinion))).
    We now proceed to examine whether these two Court-
    approved justifications for limitations on campaign activities --
    to protect against quid pro quo corruption and its appearance,
    and to protect merit-based administration -- are furthered by the
    contractor contribution statute.
    B
    We begin with the historical pedigree of § 30119, which
    stretches back to the 1870s. That history demonstrates that
    Congress did indeed aim to protect the two interests articulated
    by the FEC, and that its concerns on both fronts were well
    warranted.
    1. Congress began to tackle problems related to the political
    activity of those who work for the government in the late 19th
    century. See generally Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 555-60
    . It
    started by prohibiting most federal employees “from requesting,
    giving to, or receiving from, any other . . . employee of the
    Government, any money or property . . . for political purposes.”
    Act of Aug. 15, 1876, ch. 287, § 6, 
    19 Stat. 143
    , 169. In
    upholding that early statute as “within the just scope of
    legislative power,” the Supreme Court declared that its “evident
    purpose” was “to promote efficiency and integrity in the
    discharge of official duties” and “to protect the classes of . . .
    employees provided for from being compelled to make
    contributions for [political] purposes through fear of dismissal
    if they refused.” Ex parte Curtis, 
    106 U.S. at 373-74
    .
    The 1876 statute was limited to employees of the Executive
    Branch. In the 1883 Pendleton Act, Congress took the next step,
    making it a crime for its own members, among others, to “solicit
    16
    or receive” political contributions from federal workers, ch. 27,
    § 11, 
    22 Stat. 403
    , 406, and for those workers to “give or hand
    over” such contributions, 
    id.
     § 14, 22 Stat. at 407.9 The
    Pendleton Act further declared that “no person in the public
    service is for that reason under any obligations to contribute to
    any political fund.” Id. § 2, 22 Stat. at 404. And it “authorized
    the President to promulgate rules to carry the Act into effect and
    created the Civil Service Commission as the agency or
    administrator of the Act.” Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 558
    .
    In 1925, Congress broadened the ban to include solicitation
    and receipt by congressional challengers as well as incumbents,
    while continuing to tweak the range of forbidden donors. See
    Federal Corrupt Practices Act, 1925, ch. 368, sec. 312, § 118, 
    43 Stat. 1070
    , 1073. When Congressman Harry Wurzbach was
    subsequently indicted for receiving contributions from federal
    employees, the Supreme Court again upheld the statute as a
    proper exercise of Congress’ powers. United States v.
    Wurzbach, 
    280 U.S. 396
     (1930); see Mitchell, 
    330 U.S. at 98
    .
    Alongside these early bans on campaign contributions,
    Congress and the Executive Branch incrementally expanded the
    scope of the nascent civil service system, imposing limitations
    on political activity by employees and implementing merit-
    based hiring rules. See Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 557-60
    .
    9
    Because the Pendleton Act prohibited accepting contributions
    from “any person receiving any salary or compensation from moneys
    derived from the Treasury of the United States,” 
    id.
     § 11, 22 Stat. at
    406, it textually encompassed contributions from the various
    government contractors of the era -- ranging from experts hired to
    survey Indian lands, see Contract for Surveying Public Lands, 10 Op.
    Att’y Gen. 261, 261 (1862), to a contractor hired to make copies of
    patent drawings for the Commissioner of Patents, see Letting
    Contracts--Advertisement, 15 Op. Att’y Gen. 538 (1876).
    17
    Those efforts culminated in the Hatch Act of 1939, which aimed
    to consolidate civil service reforms and “to combat
    demonstrated ill effects of Government employees’ partisan
    political activities.” NTEU, 
    513 U.S. at 471
    . As the Court has
    explained, Congress’ purpose was to protect merit-based
    administration, including ensuring governmental efficiency and
    fairness and shielding government personnel from political
    coercion. See Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 564-66
    .
    The Hatch Act was particularly aimed at certain notorious
    abuses that occurred during the 1936 and 1938 election
    campaigns. See 
    id. at 559-60
    . Responding to reports that
    workers paid by the Works Progress Administration (WPA) had
    been coerced to contribute to the Democratic Party, for
    example,10 the Hatch Act criminalized accepting political
    contributions from anyone known to be receiving
    “compensation, employment, or other benefit” from work relief
    funds. Hatch Act, ch. 410, §§ 5, 8, 
    53 Stat. 1147
    , 1148.
    The Act imposed other restrictions on political activity by
    government employees as well, including barring them from
    “tak[ing] any active part in political management or in political
    campaigns.” 
    Id.
     § 9(a), 53 Stat. at 1148. In subsequently
    upholding those restrictions against a First Amendment
    challenge, the Supreme Court noted that they were “not
    dissimilar in purpose from the statutes against political
    10
    See, e.g., 84 CONG. REC. 9598 (1939) (statement of Rep.
    Taylor) (reporting that WPA workers had been required to place $3 to
    $5 out of their $30 monthly pay under a Democratic donkey
    paperweight on their supervisor’s desk); see also REPORT OF THE
    SPECIAL COMM. TO INVESTIGATE SENATORIAL CAMPAIGN
    EXPENDITURES AND USE OF GOVERNMENTAL FUNDS IN 1938, S. REP.
    NO. 76-1, pt. 1, at 8-33, 39 (1939) (recounting WPA abuses and
    recommending reforms).
    18
    contributions of money.” Mitchell, 
    330 U.S. at 98
    . Congress,
    the Court said, “recognizes danger to the [civil] service in that
    political rather than official effort may earn advancement and to
    the public in that governmental favor may be channeled through
    political connections.” 
    Id.
     Twenty-six years later, the Court
    again rejected a First Amendment challenge to the same
    restrictions. See Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 551
    .
    Although the 1939 Hatch Act focused on public employees
    and recipients of work relief, exploitation of government
    contractors drew congressional interest as well. Arguing that the
    original bill “does not go far enough,” Congressman J. Will
    Taylor pointed to the coercion of contractors in the “‘celebrated’
    Democratic campaign book” scandal as a prime example of
    “political immorality and skullduggery that should not be
    tolerated.” 84 CONG. REC. 9598-99 (1939). Representative
    Taylor recounted that, at the behest of the Democratic National
    Committee, party representatives paid visits to government
    contractors, reminding each one “of the business he had received
    from the Government” and explaining that the contractor was
    expected to buy a number of the party’s souvenir convention
    books -- at $250 each -- “in proportion to the amount of
    Government business he had enjoyed.” 
    Id.
     In addition, “large
    concerns, which directly or indirectly, benefitted from
    Government business, were . . . by sinister methods, convinced
    of the importance of taking advertising space in the book.” Id.;
    see also 81 CONG. REC. 6429-30 (1937) (statement of Rep.
    Taylor) (citing newspaper report regarding solicitation of
    contractors in Tennessee). Taylor urged that the bill “should be
    amended to include rackets of this character.” 84 CONG. REC.
    9599 (1939).
    19
    The next year, as the scandal surrounding the campaign
    books persisted,11 Congress took up that task in a package of
    amendments to the Hatch Act. Denouncing contracting abuses
    as “[t]he greatest source of corruption in American politics
    today,” Senator Harry Byrd argued for a broad amendment that
    would “prevent those who are making money out of
    governmental contracts from making contributions to any
    political party,” and thereby “prevent them from making
    contributions which may be considered in some instances as
    bribery in order to secure governmental contracts for
    themselves.” 86 CONG. REC. 2982 (1940). Thus, in addition to
    specifically banning the purchase of goods (such as the
    campaign books) from political parties, see Act of July 19, 1940,
    ch. 640, sec. 4, § 13(c), 
    54 Stat. 767
    , 770-71, Congress enacted
    the general contractor contribution ban that is now before us, 
    id.
    § 5(a), 54 Stat. at 772.
    The statute that Congress passed in 1940 has retained its
    essential features since that time. Then, as now, it barred any
    person or firm negotiating or performing a federal contract from
    contributing “to any political party, committee, or candidate for
    public office or to any person for any political purpose or use.”
    Id. (codified as amended at 
    52 U.S.C. § 30119
    (a)(1)).
    2. Just as the Hatch Act was spurred by outrage over
    misconduct in the 1936 and 1938 elections, “deeply disturbing
    examples” of corruption “surfacing after the 1972 election” led
    to the Federal Election Campaign Act (FECA) Amendments of
    11
    See, e.g., 86 CONG. REC. 9362 (1940) (statement of Rep.
    Knutson) (recounting advertising rates for the 1940 Democratic
    campaign book and speculating that “all of this space will be taken by
    Government contractors,” who would be “solicit[ed] . . . at the point
    of a gun”); see also Editorial, That Convention Book, N.Y. TIMES,
    Mar. 13, 1940, at 22.
    20
    1974. Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at
    27 & n.28 (citing Buckley v. Valeo,
    
    519 F.2d 821
    , 839-840 & nn. 36-38 (D.C. Cir. 1975) (en banc)).
    Particularly important for our purposes, those “disturbing
    examples” included a variety of efforts to channel government
    contracts to President Nixon’s political supporters and to exact
    contributions from existing contractors, both of which figured
    prominently in the Senate Watergate Committee’s report. See,
    e.g., FINAL REPORT OF THE SELECT COMM. ON PRESIDENTIAL
    CAMPAIGN ACTIVITIES, S. REP. NO. 93-981, at 368 (1974)
    [hereinafter WATERGATE REPORT] (describing the so-called
    “Responsiveness Program,” pursuant to which agencies were to
    ensure that “[t]he letting of Government grants, contracts, and
    loans” was directed at “meet[ing] reelection needs”); id. at 412
    (recounting evidence that “campaign officials were participating
    in the selection process for the awards of GSA architectural and
    engineering design contracts”); id. at 1210 & n.85 (separate
    views of Sen. Weicker) (recounting “evidence of quid pro quos
    for the contracts from” four cabinet departments and six
    agencies).12
    As the Watergate Committee recognized, much of the
    conduct that it exposed squarely implicated the contractor
    contribution statute (then 
    18 U.S.C. § 611
    ). See WATERGATE
    REPORT at 440. The Committee reported that the 1972 election
    12
    See also WATERGATE REPORT at 440 (“There is evidence that
    plans were laid for Government officials and others to solicit
    campaign contributions from minority recipients of Federal grants,
    loans, and contracts. Moreover, the committee has obtained evidence
    that these plans were in part consummated.”); 
    id. at 384-85
    (recounting testimony that a contract was awarded to a Nixon
    fundraiser “based solely on political motivations” and “‘rammed down
    the throats’ of Department officials”). In the passage of our Buckley
    opinion later relied upon by the Supreme Court, this court leaned
    heavily on the Watergate Report. See 
    519 F.2d at
    839 nn.35-36, 38.
    21
    gave rise to the first indictments of contributors under that
    statute, resulting in guilty pleas and then-maximum fines. Id. at
    486-89. “In view of the abuses discovered,” it recommended
    that Congress take care not to “lessen the penalties” or otherwise
    “weaken[] . . . the law in this area.” Id. at 444. The Committee
    further concluded that the statutory scheme was “deficient in
    failing to provide a civil penalty,” which made it difficult to
    address “nonflagrant cases,” and recommended that the new
    Federal Election Commission be given primary civil
    enforcement jurisdiction with respect to, inter alia, the
    contractor contribution statute. Id. at 566-67.
    A few months after the Watergate Committee made its
    recommendations, Congress increased the maximum fine for
    violations of the contractor contribution statute from $5,000 to
    $25,000, see FECA Amendments of 1974, Pub. L. No. 93-443,
    § 101(e)(2), 
    88 Stat. 1263
    , 1267, and authorized the
    Commission to initiate civil enforcement actions for violations
    of that provision, see 
    id.
     sec. 208(a), § 314(a)(7), 88 Stat. at
    1285.13 It also strengthened enforcement of the longstanding
    bans on campaign contributions by corporations and labor
    unions. See id. § 101(e)(1), 88 Stat. at 1267; see also Beaumont,
    
    539 U.S. at 152-53
     (recounting the history of those bans). And,
    as is well known, the 1974 amendments also imposed generally
    applicable ceilings on campaign contributions.               See
    McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1445
    ; Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 7
    .
    FECA’s “primary purpose,” the Court has said, “was to limit
    quid pro quo corruption and its appearance.” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at
    1444 (citing Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 26-27
    ).
    13
    That monetary penalty has since been superseded by FECA’s
    own penalty scheme. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30109
    (a)(5)-(6) (civil
    penalties); 
    id.
     § 30109(d) (criminal penalties).
    22
    Finally, in 1976, Congress incorporated the contractor
    contribution ban into FECA itself. See FECA Amendments of
    1976, Pub. L. No. 94-283, sec. 112(2), § 322, 
    90 Stat. 475
    ,
    492-93. Over the subsequent decades, both FECA and the civil
    service laws have been further amended. Those amendments
    lifted most restrictions on campaign contributions by federal
    employees.14 At the same time, however, they retained some of
    the more direct limits on government employees’ political
    activities, including barring most federal employees from
    soliciting or accepting political contributions, running for office
    in partisan elections, and hosting political fundraisers. See 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 7323
    (a), 7324(a). The Civil Service Reform Act of
    1978 also afforded federal employees protection against
    “prohibited personnel practices,” 
    5 U.S.C. § 2302
    , including
    discrimination on the basis of political affiliation and coercion
    to make political contributions, 
    id.
     § 2302(b)(1)(E), (b)(3), and
    allowed them to seek redress through the Office of Special
    Counsel and the Merit Systems Protection Board, 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 1214-15
    , 1221. Congress has left the contractor contribution
    ban in place, however, without change. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30119
    .
    3. As we have recounted, Congress enacted § 30119 in the
    aftermath of a national scandal involving a pay-to-play scheme
    for federal contracts. The statute was itself the outgrowth of a
    decades-long congressional effort to prevent corruption and
    ensure the merit-based administration of the national
    government. And it was followed by subsequent scandals that
    led to further legislative refinements, again motivated by
    concerns over corruption and merit protection.
    14
    See, e.g., Hatch Act Reform Amendments of 1993, Pub. L. No.
    103-94, sec. 2(a), § 7323, 
    107 Stat. 1001
    , 1002 (1993) (codified at 
    5 U.S.C. § 7323
    ); 
    id.
     § 4(b), 107 Stat. at 1005 (codified at 
    18 U.S.C. § 603
    (c)).
    23
    This historical pedigree is significant. As the Court said in
    Beaumont, “[j]udicial deference is particularly warranted where,
    as here, we deal with a congressional judgment that has
    remained essentially unchanged throughout a century of ‘careful
    legislative adjustment.’” 
    539 U.S. at
    162 n.9 (quoting FEC v.
    Nat’l Right to Work Comm., 
    459 U.S. 197
    , 209 (1982)).
    Moreover, as we discuss in Part V below, the lineage of the
    statute makes clear that its objects are the legitimate and
    important purposes that the Commission claims they are.
    C
    More recent evidence confirms that human nature has not
    changed since corrupt quid pro quos and other attacks on merit-
    based administration first spurred the development of the present
    legislative scheme. Of course, we would not expect to find --
    and we cannot demand -- continuing evidence of large-scale
    quid pro quo corruption or coercion involving federal contractor
    contributions because such contributions have been banned
    since 1940. As the Supreme Court has recognized, “no data can
    be marshaled to capture perfectly the counterfactual world in
    which” an existing campaign finance restriction “do[es] not
    exist.” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1457
    .15 Instead, “‘the
    question is whether experience under the present law confirms
    a serious threat of abuse.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting FEC v. Colo.
    Republican Fed. Campaign Comm., 
    533 U.S. 431
    , 457 (2001)).
    15
    See Burson v. Freeman, 
    504 U.S. 191
    , 208 (1992) (plurality
    opinion) (“The fact that these laws have been in effect for a long
    period of time also makes it difficult for the States to put on witnesses
    who can testify as to what would happen without them.”); FEC v.
    Colo. Republican Fed. Campaign Comm., 
    533 U.S. 431
    , 457 (2001)
    (noting the “difficulty of mustering evidence to support long-enforced
    statutes” because “there is no recent experience” without them).
    24
    The experience of states with and without similar laws is also
    relevant. See 
    id.
     at 1451 n.7; Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 357
    .
    Unfortunately, as was the case with the coordinated
    expenditure limits at issue in Colorado Republican, “[d]espite
    years of enforcement of the challenged” contractor contribution
    ban, “substantial evidence demonstrates” that individuals and
    firms continue to “test the limits of the current law[s],” 
    533 U.S. at
    457 -- at both the federal and state levels. This experience
    readily confirms that the government’s fear of the consequences
    of removing the current ban is not unwarranted.
    1. We begin with Congress itself, where a number of
    corruption scandals point to the danger that contributions from
    government contractors would pose. Indeed, although the
    plaintiffs contend that Members of Congress are insulated from
    the contracting process, see infra Part III.D.1, many significant
    congressional corruption cases involve quid pro quo agreements
    regarding contracts. In 2005, for example, Representative
    Randy “Duke” Cunningham pled guilty to accepting millions of
    dollars in bribes in exchange for influencing Defense
    Department contract awards. See Plea Agreement at 4-6, ECF
    No. 40 ex. 2, United States v. Cunningham, No. 3:05-cr-2137
    (S.D. Cal. Nov. 28, 2005). Mitchell Wade, the defense
    contractor who pled guilty to bribing Cunningham, admitted to
    making illegal “straw” contributions to two other Members of
    Congress as well, both of whom he targeted for their perceived
    “ability to request appropriations funding that would benefit” his
    company. Statement of Offenses at 12, United States v. Wade,
    No. 1:06-cr-49 (D.D.C. Feb. 24, 2006).16
    16
    Wade and the contracting corporation later agreed to pay a $1
    million civil penalty for violating, inter alia, § 30119 (then 2 U.S.C.
    § 441c). Conciliation Agreement at 6-7, In re MZM, Inc. and Mitchell
    Wade, Matter Under Review 5666 (FEC, Oct. 30, 2007).
    25
    In 2006, Representative Bob Ney similarly pled guilty to a
    series of quid pro quos with the lobbyist Jack Abramoff,
    including steering a “multi-million dollar” contract for a House
    of Representatives infrastructure project to one of Abramoff’s
    clients. See Factual Basis for Plea at 6, United States v. Ney,
    No. 1:06-cr-272 (D.D.C. Sept. 15, 2006). And in 1981, Senator
    Harrison Williams was convicted on bribery and corruption
    charges for crimes exposed in the FBI’s Abscam investigation.
    Williams “agreed to use his position as a United States Senator
    to obtain government contracts” for titanium to be produced by
    a mine financed by fictional Arab businessmen. United States
    v. Williams, 
    529 F. Supp. 1085
    , 1091 (E.D.N.Y. 1981), aff’d,
    
    705 F.2d 603
     (2d Cir. 1983).
    One might argue from this record that the general ban on
    contractor contributions is unnecessary prophylaxis: after all,
    congressmen who enter into quid pro quo agreements go to jail
    anyway. But as the Supreme Court has explained, “laws making
    criminal the giving and taking of bribes deal with only the most
    blatant and specific attempts of those with money to influence
    governmental action.” Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 27-28
    . Although
    the criminal cases certainly confirm the appetite for corruption
    in contracting -- and the availability of channels for carrying it
    out -- corruption and its appearance are no doubt more
    widespread in the contracting process than our criminal dockets
    reflect.
    The Executive Branch is also an obvious site of potential
    corruption in the contracting process, since its agencies are the
    ones that ultimately award contracts. This was a key focus of
    congressional concern during the Watergate hearings. See supra
    Part III.B.2; see also, e.g., WATERGATE REPORT at 409
    (describing a consultant who “was made to feel that his
    continued success in obtaining Government contracts would, in
    significant degree, be dependent on his contributing to the
    26
    President’s reelection”).17 Many more recent instances of
    corruption or its appearance in the agency contracting process
    are collected in the Defense Department’s aptly named
    Encyclopedia of Ethical Failure. See generally DEP’T OF
    DEFENSE, OFFICE OF GEN. COUNSEL, ENCYCLOPEDIA OF
    ETHICAL FAILURE 4-58, 77-78, 82, 84-88, 132-46 (updated
    2014).
    2. Further evidence comes from the states, many of which
    have enacted pay-to-play laws in response to their own recent
    experiences. At least seventeen states now limit or prohibit
    campaign contributions from some or all state contractors or
    licensees.18 The fact that many states have such laws shows that
    17
    Another notorious pay-to-play contracting scheme of the
    Watergate era involved Vice President Spiro Agnew. In 1973, a
    federal investigation uncovered evidence that Agnew had accepted
    bribes (including campaign contributions) in exchange for
    infrastructure contracts while serving as Baltimore County Executive
    and Governor of Maryland -- and that he had continued to request
    payments from contractors as Vice President, “stat[ing] expressly that
    he hoped to be able to be helpful . . . with respect to the awarding of
    Federal engineering contracts.” Exposition of the Evidence at 3-4,
    United States v. Agnew, No. 73-0535 (D. Md. Oct. 10, 1973),
    reprinted in FBI Records: Spiro Agnew, Part 16, at 130,
    http://vault.fbi.gov/Spiro%20Agnew. The Attorney General agreed
    that Agnew could plead nolo contendere to a single count of tax
    evasion if he resigned his office, which he did. See Transcript of Plea
    Hearing at 7-8, United States v. Agnew, No. 73-0535 (D. Md. Oct. 10,
    1973), available at http://research.archives.gov/description/279170.
    18
    The laws of Hawaii and West Virginia most closely track the
    text and design of § 30119. See HAW. REV. STAT. § 11-355; W. VA.
    CODE § 3-8-12(d). Other states have tailored their restrictions
    differently -- often more broadly than the federal model in some
    respects, such as by sweeping in the individual principals of
    contracting firms, and more narrowly in others, such as by targeting
    27
    the federal statute is no outlier. Moreover, the corruption
    scandals that prompted the adoption of those laws further
    demonstrate the dangers that § 30119 helps stave off at the
    federal level.19
    New Jersey’s law, for example, was enacted in the
    aftermath of a state investigation finding that a $392 million
    contract for a failed project went to a firm that had made
    extensive campaign contributions to state candidates and
    political committees. See STATE OF N.J. COMM’N OF
    INVESTIGATION, N.J. ENHANCED MOTOR VEHICLE INSPECTION
    CONTRACT 1-2, 62-65 (2002). Similarly, Illinois’ law was
    passed after former Governor George Ryan was convicted of
    racketeering charges based on his efforts, as Secretary of State,
    to steer state contracts to friendly firms in exchange for financial
    support for his gubernatorial campaign. United States v.
    particular industries or imposing ceilings on contract or contribution
    size. See CAL. GOV’T CODE § 84308(d); CONN. GEN. STAT.
    § 9-612(f)(1)-(2); 30 ILL. COMP. STAT. 500/50-37; IND. CODE
    §§ 4-30-3-19.5 to -19.7; KY. REV. STAT. ANN. § 121.330; LA. REV.
    STAT. ANN. §§ 18:1505.2(L), 27:261(D); MICH. COMP. LAWS
    § 432.207b; NEB. REV. STAT. §§ 9-803, 49-1476.01; N.J. STAT. ANN.
    § 19:44A-20.13 to -20.14; N.M. STAT. ANN. § 13-1-191.1(E)-(F);
    OHIO REV. CODE ANN. § 3517.13(I)-(Z), invalidated in part on other
    grounds, United Auto Workers, Local Union 1112 v. Brunner, 
    911 N.E.2d 327
     (Ohio Ct. App. 2009); 53 PA. CON. STAT. § 895.704-A(a);
    S.C. CODE ANN. § 8-13-1342; VT. STAT. ANN. tit. 32, § 109(b); VA.
    CODE ANN. § 2.2-3104.01.
    19
    Further evidence also comes from the Securities and Exchange
    Commission, which in 1994 approved a pay-to-play rule for municipal
    financing in response to concern that brokers and dealers were making
    political contributions to state and local officials to influence the
    choice of underwriters. This court upheld that rule against First
    Amendment challenge in Blount v. SEC, 
    61 F.3d 938
     (D.C. Cir. 1995).
    28
    Warner, 
    498 F.3d 666
    , 675 (7th Cir. 2007); see Ray Long,
    Illinois Senate Overrides Blagojevich’s Veto, Enacts ‘Pay-to-
    Play’ Ethics Law, CHI. TRIB., Sept. 23, 2008, at 1. The law’s
    passage prompted Ryan’s successor, Governor Rod Blagojevich,
    to redouble his efforts to solicit contributions from state
    contractors before the new rules took effect. See Mike McIntire
    & Jeff Zeleny, Obama’s Intervention for Ethics Bill Indirectly
    Led to Case Against Governor, N.Y. TIMES, Dec. 10, 2008, at
    A32. Those efforts in turn drew the interest of federal
    prosecutors, and Blagojevich was ultimately convicted of
    various forms of pay-to-play corruption, including attempting to
    extort campaign contributions from the chief executive of a
    hospital in exchange for raising Medicaid reimbursement rates,
    as well as offenses in connection with his effort to sell a U.S.
    Senate seat. See Jury Verdict, United States v. Blagojevich, No.
    1:08-cr-888 (N.D. Ill. June 27, 2011).
    In 2005, Connecticut passed a Campaign Finance Reform
    Act that prohibited “campaign contributions by state contractors,
    lobbyists, and their families.” Green Party, 
    616 F.3d at 192
    . In
    upholding the contractor contribution ban, the Second Circuit
    noted that it was passed “in response to several corruption
    scandals in Connecticut,” which together had “helped earn the
    state the nickname ‘Corrupticut.’” 
    Id. at 193
     (quoting Green
    Party of Conn. v. Garfield, 
    616 F.3d 213
    , 218-19 (2d Cir. 2010))
    (internal quotation marks omitted). As the court detailed:
    The most widely publicized of the scandals involved
    Connecticut’s former governor, John Rowland. In
    2004, Rowland was accused of accepting over
    $100,000 worth of gifts and services from state
    contractors . . . . Rowland accepted the gifts, it was
    alleged, in exchange for assisting the contractors in
    securing lucrative state contracts. Rowland resigned
    amidst the allegations, and in 2005 pleaded guilty --
    29
    along with two aides and several contractors -- to
    federal charges in connection with the scandal.
    
    Id.
     (quoting Green Party, 616 F.3d at 218-19). In light of that
    experience, the court found “sufficient evidence” of “actual
    corruption stemming from contractor contributions,” as well as
    “a manifest need to curtail the appearance of corruption created
    by contractor contributions.” Id. at 200.
    Later, the Second Circuit also upheld New York City’s law
    limiting contributions by entities “doing business with” the City.
    Ognibene v. Parkes, 
    671 F.3d 174
     (2d Cir. 2011). In so doing,
    the court noted that there were “actual pay-to-play scandals in
    New York City in the 1980s,” 
    id. at 188-89
    , and that there were
    “several recent scandals . . . specifically involv[ing] pay-to-play
    campaign donations” in New York State, 
    id.
     at 190 n.15.20
    We could go on. The FEC has assembled an impressive, if
    dismaying, account of pay-to-play contracting scandals, not only
    in the above states, but also in New Mexico, Hawaii, Ohio,
    California, and elsewhere. See FEC’s Proposed Findings of
    20
    The plaintiffs point out that, in Lavin v. Husted, the Sixth
    Circuit overturned an Ohio statute that made it a crime for candidates
    for attorney general or county prosecutor to accept contributions from
    Medicaid providers. 
    689 F.3d 543
     (6th Cir. 2012). The court did so
    because, inter alia, the defendant Secretary of State “concede[d] that
    he ha[d] no evidence at all in support of his theory that [the statute]
    prevent[ed] actual or perceived corruption among prosecutors in
    Ohio.” 
    Id. at 547
     (emphasis added). As we discuss in the text, that is
    emphatically not the situation here. See also 
    id.
     (distinguishing Green
    Party on the ground that there the state did have evidence “to
    demonstrate how its ban on contributions from contractors would help
    bring such scandals to an end”).
    30
    Fact, J.A. 298-313.21 But we think that the evidence canvassed
    21
    See also, e.g., Yamada, 
    2015 WL 2384944
    , at *20 (upholding
    Hawaii contractor contribution ban “in light of past ‘pay to play’
    scandals and the widespread appearance of corruption that existed at
    the time” the ban was passed in 2005); United States v. Dimora, 
    750 F.3d 619
    , 623 (6th Cir. 2014) (affirming conviction of Ohio county
    official who “influenced Cleveland decision-makers and steered public
    contracts in return for approximately 100 bribes worth more than
    $250,000”); Plea Agreement at 3, United States v. Montoya, No. 1:05-
    cr-2050 (D.N.M. Nov. 8, 2005) (guilty plea of New Mexico State
    Treasurer, who explained that “it was quite easy to get bribes from
    people who wanted to keep or obtain business,” including individual
    investment and financial advisors); James Drew & Steve Eder, Petro:
    Noe Stole Millions, TOLEDO BLADE, July 22, 2005 (reporting on an
    Ohio scandal in which state workers’ compensation funds were
    invested with a major political contributor who was ultimately
    convicted of both corruption and theft from the funds, see State v.
    Noe, 
    2009 WL 5174163
     (Ohio Ct. App. 2009)); Carl Ingram, Former
    Davis Aide Faces Charges in Oracle Probe, L.A. TIMES, Mar. 3, 2004
    (recounting incident in which a corporate lobbyist delivered a $25,000
    contribution to the Governor of California’s reelection campaign, via
    his policy director, days after the state signed a $95 million contract
    with the company; the contribution was ultimately returned and the
    contract rescinded); Bruce Dunford, Jail Time, Fines Are Levied in
    Hawaii Election Probe, BOSTON GLOBE, Jan. 12, 2004, at A3
    (detailing “a scandal in which respected architects and engineers
    illegally made political donations in the names of their employees,
    wives, and children, allegedly to win government contracts” in
    Honolulu); United States v. Troutman, 
    814 F.2d 1428
    , 1433-36 (10th
    Cir. 1987) (affirming the extortion conviction of New Mexico’s State
    Investment Officer for demanding that a bank make political
    contributions in order to obtain a state contract); cf. Patrick Madden,
    The Cost of D.C. Council’s Power Over Contracts, WAMU (Oct. 14,
    2014), http://wamu.org/projects/paytoplay/#/story (reporting on an
    investigation that “identified more than $5 million in political
    contributions from more than 300 firms with [D.C.] Council-approved
    contracts from 2005 to 2014,” and that revealed that “[r]oughly half
    31
    thus far suffices to show that, in government contracting, the
    risk of quid pro quo corruption and its appearance, and of
    interference with merit-based administration, has not dissipated.
    Taken together, the record offers every reason to believe that, if
    the dam barring contributions were broken, more money in
    exchange for contracts would flow through the same channels
    already on display.
    D
    Notwithstanding the above, the plaintiffs argue that the
    interests asserted by the Commission are not furthered by
    § 30119 for two reasons.
    1. The plaintiffs contend that changes in government
    contracting practices since the 1940s -- especially the advent of
    formalized competitive bidding -- render the current system
    “immune from political interference” in the majority of cases.
    Pls. Br. 11. Thus, they maintain, “even if a pay-to-play rationale
    might have made [the statute] defensible in 1940, the vast
    changes in federal procurement since then have made it
    indefensible on that basis today.” Id. at 13. We are
    unpersuaded.
    First, the facts that we have recounted above speak for
    themselves. See supra Part III.C.1. If contracting were truly
    immune from political interference, for example, Rep.
    Cunningham could not have “pressure[d] and influence[d]
    United States Department of Defense personnel to award and
    execute government contracts.” Plea Agreement at 6, United
    of the contractors’ campaign cash was donated to lawmakers within
    a year of their contracts getting approved,” often “months and weeks
    ahead of when the contracts were voted on” or even the same day as
    the vote).
    32
    States v. Cunningham, No. 3:05-cr-2137 (S.D. Cal. Nov. 28,
    2005). Nor would the myriad of other instances of corruption
    and self-dealing in the contract bidding process have occurred.
    See generally DEP’T OF DEFENSE, ENCYCLOPEDIA OF ETHICAL
    FAILURE 4-58, 77-78, 82, 84-88, 132-46. Moreover, those facts
    are hardly surprising. Although agencies do rely on specialized
    contracting officers to help ensure independence, contracting
    officers in turn rely on information about needs and objectives
    provided by the “customer” agency, which may include input
    from political appointees. See D. Ct. Findings ¶ 23 (citing
    Schooner Dep. 110-16). And Members of Congress have many
    opportunities of their own to intercede on behalf of their
    constituents. See, e.g., MORTON ROSENBERG & JACK H.
    MASKELL, CONG . RESEARCH SERV ., CONGRESSIONAL
    INTERVENTION IN THE ADMINISTRATIVE PROCESS: LEGAL AND
    ETHICAL CONSIDERATIONS 80 (2003); H.R. REP. NO. 113-666,
    at 4 (2014).
    Second, most contracts held by individuals to provide
    personal services on a regular basis, such as those held by
    plaintiffs Brown and Miller, “‘are not . . . . subject to full and
    open competition and the full range of rights and responsibilities
    that follow.’” D. Ct. Findings ¶ 24 (quoting Schooner Dep. 89);
    see 
    48 C.F.R. § 13.003
    (d). Nor is full-blown competitive
    bidding required for contracts with values below the “simplified
    acquisition threshold” -- set at $150,000 in most cases, 
    48 C.F.R. § 2.101
    . See 
    41 U.S.C. § 1901
    ; 
    48 C.F.R. § 13.003
    (a).
    Instead, “‘the government can call two or three people on the
    phone and operate in a very informal manner.’” D. Ct. Findings
    ¶ 24 (quoting Schooner Dep. 107-08). Wagner’s contract, for
    example, was arranged under the simplified acquisition
    procedures. 
    Id.
     She was proactively approached by a staff
    member at ACUS, and then discussed the arrangement with
    ACUS’s Chairman, who is appointed by the President and
    confirmed by the Senate. Wagner Decl. ¶ 3. In short, because
    33
    the plaintiffs challenge § 30119 as it applies to individual
    contractors, the competitive bidding regime does little to help
    their case.
    Finally, perhaps the most relevant change in government
    contracting over the past several decades has been the enormous
    increase in the government’s reliance on contractors to do work
    previously performed by employees. See Schooner Dep. 35-36,
    cited in D. Ct. Findings ¶ 22.22 If anything, that shift has only
    strengthened the original rationales for the contractor
    contribution ban by increasing the number of potential targets of
    corruption and coercion -- targets who do not have the merit
    system protections available to government employees. See 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 1214-15
    , 2301(b)(1)-(2); infra Part V.B.23
    22
    See also Test. of John K. Needham, Director, Acquisition &
    Sourcing Management, Gov’t Accountability Office, S. Hrg. 111-626,
    at 3 (2010) (“[I]t is now commonplace for agencies to use contractors
    to perform activities historically performed by government
    employees.”); Presidential Memorandum for the Heads of Executive
    Departments and Agencies on Government Contracting, Mar. 4, 2009
    (noting that spending on government contracts had more than doubled
    since 2001 and that the line between traditional public functions and
    contracting functions “has been blurred and inadequately defined”);
    PAUL C. LIGHT, RESEARCH BRIEF: THE NEW TRUE SIZE OF
    GOVERNMENT 1 (2006) (noting that the Bush Administration “has
    overseen the most significant increase in recent history in the largely
    hidden workforce of contractors and grantees who work for the federal
    government”).
    23
    Increased reliance on individual contractors -- particularly
    retirees such as Brown and Miller -- also raises a concern that some
    former federal employees may unwittingly violate § 30119 because
    they are unaware that they have become subject to a different set of
    restrictions as contractors. However, as FEC counsel advised the
    court, there is no criminal violation unless the individual knows his or
    her conduct violates the law. Oral Arg. Recording 1:01:19-1:02:19;
    34
    2. The plaintiffs also question whether there is sufficient
    evidence of corruption or coercion specifically with respect to
    individual contractors, as compared to those organized as
    corporations or other kinds of firms. It is true that most of the
    examples set forth in Parts III.B and III.C above involve firms.24
    We see no reason, however, to believe that the motivations for
    corruption and coercion exhibited in those examples are
    inapplicable in the case of individual contractors. Consider Sam
    Harris, a consultant who told the Watergate Committee that “he
    was made to feel that his continued success in obtaining
    Government contracts would, in significant degree, be
    dependent on his contributing to the President’s reelection.”
    WATERGATE REPORT at 409. There is no basis for thinking that
    Harris would have been less vulnerable to such coercion if,
    instead of doing business as Sam Harris & Associates, id., he
    had contracted with the government in his personal capacity.
    We are also mindful that less direct evidence is required when,
    as here, the government acts to prevent offenses that “are
    successful precisely because they are difficult to detect.”
    Burson, 
    504 U.S. at 208
     (upholding restriction of campaign
    see 
    52 U.S.C. § 30109
    (d)(1)(A) (imposing criminal penalties on those
    who “knowingly and willfully” violate FECA); Bryan v. United
    States, 
    524 U.S. 184
    , 191-92 (1998) (“[I]n order to establish a ‘willful’
    violation of a statute, the Government must prove that the defendant
    acted with knowledge that his conduct was unlawful.” (internal
    quotation marks omitted)).
    24
    But see, e.g., 84 CONG. REC. 9598, 9610 (1939) (statements of
    Reps. Taylor and Michener) (detailing the coercion of WPA-paid
    workers to contribute to the Democratic Party that led to passage of
    the Hatch Act); WATERGATE REPORT at 413 (describing how federal
    employees were pressured to help meet a “management objective” by
    contributing to a Republican Party fundraiser); id. 429 (describing
    evidence that contributions were solicited from Veterans’
    Administration employees).
    35
    speech near voting places as warranted to prevent “[v]oter
    intimidation and election fraud,” notwithstanding limited record
    evidence). “[N]o smoking gun is needed where . . . the conflict
    of interest is apparent, the likelihood of stealth great, and the
    legislative purpose prophylactic.” Blount v. SEC, 
    61 F.3d 938
    ,
    945 (D.C. Cir. 1995).
    Moreover, the trend we identified above, toward a larger
    federal workforce outside the protection of the civil service
    system, necessarily poses an increased threat of both corruption
    and coercion. If anything, past experience suggests that such
    workers are particularly vulnerable to tacit (or not so tacit)
    demands for political tributes. See, e.g., Rutan v. Republican
    Party of Ill., 
    497 U.S. 62
    , 66 (1990) (describing state
    government promotion decisions predicated on “whether the
    applicant has provided financial or other support to the
    Republican Party and its candidates”); Elrod, 
    427 U.S. at 355
    (describing Cook County patronage system in which, “[i]n order
    to maintain their jobs, respondents were required to . . .
    contribute a portion of their wages to the [Democratic] Party”);
    see also Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. at 671
     (describing an individual
    whose contract for hauling trash allegedly was terminated in
    retaliation for political criticism). A coercive patronage system
    can thrive on even small contributions from a large group of
    workers beholden to those in power -- which is what the
    growing ranks of individual contractors staffing federal agencies
    offer. As the Court explained in Elrod v. Burns, “[a]s
    government employment . . . becomes more pervasive, the
    greater the dependence on it becomes, and therefore the greater
    becomes the power to starve political opposition by
    commanding partisan support, financial and otherwise.” 
    427 U.S. at 356
    ; see Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 565-66
     (explaining
    that “perhaps the immediate occasion for enactment of the Hatch
    Act in 1939 . . . was the conviction that the rapidly expanding
    36
    Government work force should not be employed to build a
    powerful, invincible, and perhaps corrupt political machine”).
    E
    Our historical review makes clear that the two Court-
    approved justifications for limitations on campaign activities --
    to protect against quid pro quo corruption and its appearance,
    and to protect merit-based public administration -- were the
    justifications that lay behind the contractor contribution statute.
    Likewise, our national experience supports Congress’ fear that
    political contributions by government contractors can corrupt
    and interfere with merit-based administration.
    The Supreme Court has instructed that the “quantum of
    empirical evidence needed to satisfy heightened judicial scrutiny
    of legislative judgments will vary up or down with the novelty
    and plausibility of the justification raised.” Nixon v. Shrink Mo.
    Gov’t PAC, 
    528 U.S. 377
    , 391 (2000). There is nothing novel
    or implausible about the notion that contractors may make
    political contributions as a quid pro quo for government
    contracts, that officials may steer government contracts in return
    for such contributions, and that the making of contributions and
    the awarding of contracts to contributors fosters the appearance
    of such quid pro quo corruption. Nor is there anything novel or
    implausible about the idea that contractors may be coerced to
    make contributions to play in that game, or that more qualified
    contractors may decline to play at all if the game is rigged. To
    the contrary, the empirical record is more than sufficient to
    satisfy the heightened judicial scrutiny appropriate for review of
    the legislative judgments that support § 30119.
    In sum, the interests supporting the contractor contribution
    statute are legally sufficient, and the dangers it seeks to combat
    are real and supported by the historical and factual record.
    37
    Accordingly, we now turn to the remainder of the “closely
    drawn” test.
    IV
    Even if a contribution ban serves sufficiently important
    interests, to satisfy the First Amendment it still must employ
    “‘means closely drawn to avoid unnecessary abridgment of
    associational freedoms.’” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
    (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    ). Clearing this hurdle
    “require[s] ‘a fit that is not necessarily perfect, but reasonable;
    that represents not necessarily the single best disposition but one
    whose scope is in proportion to the interest served[;] . . . that
    employs not necessarily the least restrictive means but . . . a
    means narrowly tailored to achieve the desired objective.’” Id.
    at 1456-57 (quoting Bd. of Trs. v. Fox, 
    492 U.S. 469
    , 480
    (1989)). The plaintiffs contend that § 30119 fails this test
    because it is overinclusive in several respects, which we
    consider in turn.
    A
    The plaintiffs first maintain that the statute is overinclusive
    because Congress banned their contributions entirely, rather than
    simply resting on the contribution limits generally applicable to
    all citizens, see 
    52 U.S.C. § 30116
    (a), or on some more modest
    limits. Such a contribution ban, applicable to a particular
    category of persons, is not unique. Federal law has long
    prohibited all federal campaign contributions by corporations
    and labor unions. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30118
    (a); Beaumont, 
    539 U.S. at 161-63
    . Several states have their own bans on certain
    contributions by classes of individuals or firms that do business
    38
    with the government.25 And every judge on this court -- indeed,
    on every lower federal court -- is likewise banned from making
    political contributions. See CODE OF CONDUCT FOR UNITED
    STATES JUDGES, Canon 5(A)(3). So, too, are judicial employees.
    See CODE OF CONDUCT FOR JUDICIAL EMPLOYEES § 310.10(a);
    id. § 320, Canon 5(A). See also Bluman v. FEC, 
    800 F. Supp. 2d 281
     (D.D.C. 2011) (three-judge court) (upholding ban on
    contributions by foreign nationals, 
    52 U.S.C. § 30121
    (a)), summ.
    aff’d, 
    132 S. Ct. 1087
     (2012).
    We do not dispute that the total ban on federal contributions
    by contractors is a significant restriction. But the point of the
    “closely drawn” test is that “‘[e]ven a significant interference
    with protected rights of political association may be sustained if
    the State demonstrates a sufficiently important interest and
    employs means closely drawn to avoid unnecessary abridgment
    of associational freedoms.’” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
    (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    ). And we conclude that the
    ban at issue here is permissible in the circumstances that we
    address in this opinion: a regulation that bars only campaign
    contributions and that is imposed only on government
    contractors. As we have discussed, the Court has held that
    campaign contributions constitute a form of expressive activity
    less central to the First Amendment than other kinds of political
    activity and expenditures. See, e.g., id. at 1444; Beaumont, 
    539 U.S. at 161
    ; Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 25
    . And as we have also
    discussed, we owe “‘greater deference to government
    predictions of harm used to justify restriction of employee
    speech than to predictions of harm used to justify restrictions on
    the speech of the public at large.’” Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. at
    676
    25
    See, e.g., CONN. GEN. STAT. § 9-612(f)(1)-(2); HAW. REV. STAT.
    § 11-355; 30 ILL. COMP. STAT. 500/50-37; IND. CODE §§ 4-30-3-19.7;
    LA. REV. STAT. ANN. § 18:1505.2(L); MICH. COMP. LAWS § 432.207b;
    W. VA. CODE § 3-8-12(d).
    39
    (quoting Waters, 
    511 U.S. at 673
    ); see Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 566-67
    ; Pickering, 
    391 U.S. at 568
    .             Under these
    circumstances, we conclude that Congress’ decision to impose
    a contribution ban during the period of contract negotiation and
    performance is closely drawn for two reasons.
    First, the contracting context greatly sharpens the risk of
    corruption and its appearance. Unlike the corruption risk when
    a contribution is made by a member of the general public, in the
    case of contracting there is a very specific quo for which the
    contribution may serve as the quid: the grant or retention of the
    contract. Indeed, if there is an area that can be described as the
    “heartland” of such concerns, the contracting process is it. Cf.
    Green Party, 616 F.3d at 202 (explaining that Connecticut’s ban
    on contractor contributions “is, without question, ‘closely
    drawn’ to meet the state’s interest in combating corruption and
    the appearance of corruption” because such contributions “lie at
    the heart of the corruption problem in Connecticut”); see also
    Yamada, 
    2015 WL 2384944
    , at *20. The long historical
    experience described in Parts III.B and III.C makes clear that
    this is not just a question of risk, but of reality.
    Moreover, because of that sharpened focus, the appearance
    problem is also greater: a contribution made while negotiating
    or performing a contract looks like a quid pro quo, whether or
    not it truly is. As the sponsor of the 1940 contractor
    contribution ban explained to his Senate colleagues, the ban was
    needed because contractor contributions “may be considered in
    some instances as bribery in order to secure governmental
    contracts,” 86 CONG. REC. 2982 (1940) (statement of Sen.
    Byrd). See Green Party, 616 F.3d at 205 (upholding
    Connecticut’s ban because, inter alia, “[e]ven if small contractor
    contributions would have been unlikely to influence state
    officials, those contributions could have still given rise to the
    appearance that contractors are able to exert improper influence
    40
    on state officials”); cf. Preston, 
    660 F.3d at 736
     (upholding
    North Carolina’s ban on lobbyists’ contributions because it
    rested on “a legitimate legislative judgment” that “a complete
    ban was necessary as a prophylactic to prevent not only actual
    corruption but also the appearance of corruption in future state
    political campaigns”).
    Second, the contracting context also greatly sharpens the
    risk of interference with merit-based public administration.
    Because a contractor’s need for government contracts is
    generally more focused than a member of the general public’s
    need for other official acts, his or her susceptibility to coercion
    is concomitantly greater. And coercing a contractor to
    contribute, even if limited by a contribution ceiling, is still
    coercion.
    In sum, we conclude that a flat prohibition is closely drawn
    to the important goals that § 30119 serves. Cf. Williams-Yulee
    v. Fla. Bar, 
    135 S. Ct. 1656
    , 1672 (2015) (“Although the Court
    has held that contribution limits advance the interest in
    preventing quid pro quo corruption and its appearance in
    political elections, we have never held that adopting contribution
    limits precludes a State from pursuing its compelling interests
    through additional means.”).
    B
    The plaintiffs also argue that § 30119 is overinclusive
    because it bans contributions not only to candidates for
    President and Congress, but also to political parties, which,
    “[u]nlike elected officials who might have the theoretical power
    to influence a contract, . . . plainly have no ability to affect the
    award of any contract.” Pls. Br. 51. But the Democratic
    campaign book scandal of the 1930s gave Congress sufficient
    reason to target contributions to parties: it was the Democratic
    41
    National Committee whose agents reportedly told government
    contractors that the continuation of their contracts hinged on
    their financial support of the party. See 84 CONG. REC. 9598-99
    (1939). Indeed, the 1876 law concerning federal employees was
    also “aimed at the suppression of the practice which has
    prevailed among party organizations of soliciting contributions
    for party purposes from their office-holding members, or
    exacting them by a moral coercion.” United States v. Curtis, 
    12 F. 824
    , 838 (C.C.S.D.N.Y. 1882) (emphasis added). Likewise
    the Watergate Committee’s report on the 1972 election included
    evidence that federal employees were pressured to contribute to
    the Republican Party. WATERGATE REPORT at 413. Nor did the
    role of contributions to political parties in influencing
    government employment wane as the 20th century progressed.
    See, e.g., Elrod, 
    427 U.S. at 351-52
     (1976); Branti v. Finkel, 
    445 U.S. 507
    , 510-11 (1980); Rutan, 
    497 U.S. at 66
     (1990).
    More recently, in upholding FECA’s restrictions on soft-
    money contributions to political parties, the Supreme Court
    noted that “‘[t]here is no meaningful separation between the
    national party committees and the public officials who control
    them.’” McConnell, 
    540 U.S. at 155
     (quoting expert report cited
    in McConnell v. FEC, 
    251 F. Supp. 2d 176
    , 468-69 (D.D.C.
    2003)). As a three-judge court in this district noted, “the
    [McConnell] Court suggested that federal officeholders and
    candidates may value contributions to their national parties --
    regardless of how those contributions ultimately may be used --
    in much the same way they value contributions to their own
    campaigns.” Republican Nat’l Comm., 698 F. Supp. 2d at 159,
    42
    summ. aff’d, 
    561 U.S. 1040
     (2010).26 Congress did not sweep
    too broadly by designing § 30119 to address that fact.
    C
    In addition to those we have just considered, the plaintiffs
    propose a miscellany of further ways in which Congress could
    make § 30119 less restrictive. We address only the more
    substantial of these.
    First, the plaintiffs propose that the ban should at least
    exclude sole-source contracts for experts like plaintiff Wagner,
    particularly when it is the government that initiates the contact,
    “because the requirements to enter them are sufficiently
    rigorous” to address the risk of corruption. Pls. Br. 53 n.9. But
    the plaintiffs do not explain what those requirements are, or why
    they provide the requisite assurances. Cf. KATE M. MANUEL,
    CONG . R ESEARCH SERV ., COMPETITION IN FEDERAL
    CONTRACTING: AN OVERVIEW OF THE LEGAL REQUIREMENTS 1
    (2011) (noting “high-profile incidents of alleged misconduct by
    contractors or agency officials involving noncompetitive
    contracts”). Moreover, this argument appears contrary to the
    plaintiffs’ principal contention, that it is the rise of competitive
    bidding -- not the private placement of sole-source contracts --
    that has eliminated the risk of pay-to-play. See supra Part
    III.D.1. In any event, because Wagner’s claims are moot, this
    argument need not detain us.
    26
    See McConnell, 
    540 U.S. at 155
     (explaining that the “close
    connection and alignment of interests” between parties and federal
    officeholders are likely to create the risk of “actual or apparent”
    corruption); Emily’s List v. FEC, 
    581 F.3d 1
    , 6 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    43
    Second, the plaintiffs argue that § 30119 unnecessarily bars
    contractors from contributing to ideological PACs that, in turn,
    contribute to candidates. Whether or not this argument has
    merit,27 it suffers from a similar problem: the one plaintiff
    whose claim is not moot lacks standing to challenge limitations
    on contributions to PACs. See supra Part I.
    Third, the plaintiffs suggest that the statute would be more
    closely drawn if it applied only to large contracts, pointing out
    that Colorado and New York City enacted pay-to-play laws
    limited to contracts worth more than $100,000. See Pls. Br.
    52-53. Although such a dollar limit would of course reduce the
    number of covered contractors, the plaintiffs do not explain why
    § 30119 is not closely drawn to the interests it serves in the
    absence of such a limit, or why a dollar limit would draw it more
    closely to those interests. Perhaps quid pro quos and coercion
    are more likely when larger contracts are involved because,
    since more money is at stake, the parties are more willing to risk
    detection and prosecution. Or perhaps such abuses are just as
    likely when smaller contracts are involved because the relative
    value to the small contractor is high and the risk of detection is
    comparatively low. Because the plaintiffs have advanced no
    argument on this point, there is no need for us to speculate
    further. We do note, however, that the historical record provides
    support for legislative concern that corrupt and coercive
    patronage regimes can take root even when relatively small
    amounts of money are at stake. See supra Parts III.B.1-2,
    III.D.2., IV.A. And we also note again that a contribution ban
    need not be a perfect fit to be constitutional, see McCutcheon,
    27
    The Supreme Court has upheld restrictions on contributions to
    multicandidate committees as a necessary means to avoid
    circumvention of other limits. Cal. Med. Ass’n, 
    453 U.S. at 197-99
    (plurality opinion); see 
    id. at 203
     (Blackmun, J., concurring in part and
    concurring in the judgment); Emily’s List, 
    581 F.3d at 11-12
    .
    44
    
    134 S. Ct. at 1456-57
    , and that courts give substantial deference
    to the government’s predictions of harm concerning its own
    employees and contractors, see Umbehr, 
    518 U.S. at 676
    .
    Finally, the plaintiffs maintain that Congress should have
    rested on the criminal statutes that directly ban quid pro quos
    and coercion,28 rather than also banning political contributions.
    But the Supreme Court has repeatedly dispatched this argument.
    As McConnell explained, “[i]n Buckley, we expressly rejected
    the argument that antibribery laws provided a less restrictive
    alternative to FECA’s contribution limits, noting that such laws
    ‘deal[t] with only the most blatant and specific attempts of those
    with money to influence governmental action.’” 
    540 U.S. at 143
    (quoting Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 28
    ); see Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 356-57
     (noting that, although quid pro quo arrangements
    “would be covered by bribery laws” if proven, the Court has
    viewed “restrictions on direct contributions a[s] preventative”
    and has sustained them “in order to ensure against the reality or
    appearance of corruption”). And what is true of the antibribery
    laws is equally true of the anticoercion provisions. See Letter
    Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 566
     (“It may be urged that prohibitions
    against coercion are sufficient protection; but for many years the
    joint judgment of the Executive and Congress has been that to
    protect the rights of federal employees with respect to their jobs
    and their political acts and beliefs it is not enough merely to
    forbid one employee to attempt to influence or coerce
    another.”).
    28
    See, e.g., 
    18 U.S.C. § 201
     (proscribing bribes and gratuities); 
    id.
    § 601 (proscribing causing or attempting to cause persons to make
    political contributions by denying or threatening to deny them work
    in or for the federal government).
    45
    D
    Because the operative question in the plaintiffs’
    overinclusiveness challenge is whether § 30119 avoids
    “unnecessary abridgment” of First Amendment rights, it is also
    important to consider how much the statute leaves untouched.
    Campaign contributions are banned, but other forms of political
    engagement are left entirely unrestricted. The plaintiffs are free
    to volunteer for candidates, parties, or political committees; to
    speak in their favor; and to host fundraisers and solicit
    contributions from others. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30101
    (8)(B)
    (enumerating activities to which the term “contribution” does
    not extend). And even the contribution ban itself is limited to
    the period between commencement of negotiations and
    completion of contract performance. 
    Id.
     § 30119(a)(1).
    The plaintiffs insist that the fact that the statute preserves
    other avenues of political communication is irrelevant to First
    Amendment analysis. Pls. Br. 61. But that argument is
    incorrect. As the Court recognized in McCutcheon v. FEC, “in
    the context of [upholding the] base contribution limits, Buckley
    observed that a supporter could vindicate his associational
    interests by personally volunteering his time and energy on
    behalf of a candidate.” McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at
    1449 (citing
    Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 22, 28
    ).29 The availability of other avenues
    29
    See Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 22
     (noting that FECA’s contribution
    ceilings “limit one important means of associating with a candidate or
    committee, but leave the contributor free to become a member of any
    political association and to assist personally in the association’s efforts
    on behalf of candidates”); see also Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1670
    (upholding Florida’s ban on solicitation of campaign funds by judicial
    candidates, emphasizing that the ban restricts only “a narrow slice of
    speech” because it “leaves judicial candidates free to discuss any issue
    with any person at any time”).
    46
    of political communication can thus be relevant, although it is of
    course not dispositive.
    In Blount v. SEC, for example, this court upheld a rule
    restricting political contributions by municipal finance
    professionals to state and local officials from whom they hoped
    to secure underwriting contracts. 
    61 F.3d 938
    . We found the
    rule to be “closely drawn,” in part because it “restrict[ed] a
    narrow range of their activities for a relatively short period of
    time,” and those subject to the rule were “not in any way
    restricted from engaging in the vast majority of political
    activities.” 
    Id. at 947-48
    . Similarly, the Fourth Circuit upheld
    a lobbyist contribution ban in part because it “serve[d] only as
    a channeling device, cutting off the avenue of association and
    expression that is most likely to lead to corruption but allowing
    numerous other avenues of association and expression.”
    Preston, 
    660 F.3d at 734
    . So, too, here.
    E
    We conclude that the ban on contractor contributions is
    closely drawn to the government’s interests in preventing
    corruption and its appearance, and in protecting against
    interference with merit-based administration. It strikes at the
    dangers Congress most feared while preserving contractors’
    freedom to engage in many other forms of political expression.
    We do not discount the possibility that Congress could have
    narrowed its aim even further, targeting only certain specific
    kinds of government contracting or doing so only during
    specific periods. But as the Court has made clear, “most
    problems arise in greater and lesser gradations, and the First
    Amendment does not confine a State to addressing evils in their
    most acute form.” Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1671
    .
    47
    V
    What we have said thus far establishes that § 30119’s ban
    on contractor contributions serves sufficiently important
    interests and employs means closely drawn to avoid unnecessary
    abridgment of protected expression. The plaintiffs make one
    further First Amendment argument: not only is § 30119
    overinclusive because it restricts too much speech, but it is also
    underinclusive because it permits too much speech. That is, it
    fails to ban contributions by three categories of individuals or
    entities that might implicate the same interests.
    The first category proffered for comparison by the plaintiffs
    consists of entities and individuals associated with firms that
    have government contracts: PACs established by contracting
    corporations; officers, employees, and shareholders of
    contracting corporations; and individuals who control limited
    liability companies (LLCs) that contract with the federal
    government. The second category is composed of federal
    employees. The final category comprises individuals who seek
    other government benefits or positions, particularly grants and
    loans, admission to the military academies, and
    ambassadorships.30
    We begin with some general principles relevant to
    evaluating a claim that a statute violates the First Amendment
    because it is “underinclusive.” To put it most bluntly: “The First
    30
    The plaintiffs’ opening brief proffers only the third category as
    an example of First Amendment underinclusiveness, discussing the
    first two as part of their equal protection challenge. Pls. Br. 23, 55-59.
    In their reply brief, the plaintiffs identify all three categories as
    supporting their First Amendment argument. Reply Br. 26-28.
    Because the issues are intertwined, see infra Part VI, we consider all
    three categories here.
    48
    Amendment does not require the government to curtail as much
    speech as may conceivably serve its goals.” Blount, 
    61 F.3d at 946
    . Or, as the Supreme Court recently said in Williams-Yulee
    v. Florida Bar, in which it upheld, under strict scrutiny,
    Florida’s ban on solicitation of campaign funds by judicial
    candidates:
    [T]he First Amendment imposes no freestanding
    “underinclusiveness limitation.” A State need not
    address all aspects of a problem in one fell swoop;
    policymakers may focus on their most pressing
    concerns. We have accordingly upheld laws -- even
    under strict scrutiny -- that conceivably could have
    restricted even greater amounts of speech in service of
    their stated interests.
    
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
     (quoting R.A.V. v. St. Paul, 
    505 U.S. 377
    , 387
    (1992)). Of course, in the instant case we do not apply strict
    scrutiny, but rather the more forgiving “closely drawn” standard.
    And a statute that does not go as far as it might to cut off
    campaign contributions can hardly be said to constitute an
    “unnecessary abridgment” of the freedom to make such
    contributions, McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at 1444
    .
    This is not to say that underinclusiveness plays no role in
    First Amendment analysis. As the Court explained in Williams-
    Yulee, a law’s underinclusiveness raises “a red flag” that may
    indicate a different kind of problem. 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    . For
    example, it may raise “‘doubts about whether the government is
    in fact pursuing the interest it invokes, rather than disfavoring a
    particular speaker or viewpoint.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting Brown v. Entm’t
    Merchants Ass’n, 
    131 S. Ct. 2729
    , 2740 (2011)). The “textbook
    illustration of that principle,” the Court explained, is the Lukumi
    Babalu Aye case, in which it struck down a city’s ban on ritual
    animal sacrifices because the city’s failure to ban secular
    49
    killings indicated that the ban’s object was not (as it asserted)
    animal welfare but rather the suppression of particular religious
    beliefs. Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at
    1668 (citing Church of
    Lukumi Babalu Aye, Inc. v. Hialeah, 
    508 U.S. 520
    , 543-47
    (1993)).31 Indeed, underinclusiveness may call into question
    whether “the proffered state interest actually underlies the law,”
    Blount, 
    61 F.3d at 938
     (internal quotation marks omitted), even
    when the true interest is not invidious. See Republican Party of
    Minn. v. White, 
    536 U.S. 765
    , 780 (2002) (finding a restriction
    on speech by judicial candidates “so woefully underinclusive as
    to render belief in [its asserted] purpose a challenge to the
    credulous”).32
    31
    See also City of Ladue v. Gilleo, 
    512 U.S. 43
    , 51 (1994) (noting
    that “a regulation of speech may be impermissibly underinclusive” if
    it represents an attempt “to give one side of a debatable public
    question an advantage in expressing its views to the people,” or “to
    select the permissible subjects for public debate and thereby to control
    . . . the search for political truth” (internal quotation marks omitted));
    First Nat’l Bank of Bos. v. Bellotti, 
    435 U.S. 765
    , 793 (1978) (finding
    an underinclusiveness problem where “[t]he fact that a particular kind
    of ballot question [was] singled out for special treatment . . .
    suggest[ed] . . . that the legislature may have been concerned with
    silencing corporations on a particular subject”).
    32
    See also Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 362
     (concluding that, “if
    Congress had been seeking to protect dissenting shareholders” as the
    government claimed, it would not have banned corporate speech “in
    only certain media” for only a specific period before an election);
    Florida Star v. B.J.F., 
    491 U.S. 524
    , 540 (1989) (invalidating statute
    barring publication of victims’ identities in part because its “facial
    underinclusiveness . . . raises serious doubts about whether Florida is,
    in fact, serving, with this statute, the significant interests which [it]
    invokes in support of affirmance”).
    50
    But the plaintiffs do not challenge § 30119 on these
    grounds. They do not contend, for example, that Congress’ true
    interest was to favor corporate affiliates, federal employees, or
    government grantees over individual contractors, see Oral Arg.
    Recording 18:20-19:03, which would require us to undertake
    closer analysis of the basis for such disparate treatment. To the
    contrary, they agree that the interests that motivated and have
    sustained § 30119 are the anticorruption goals the government
    invokes today. See id. 22:05-45. Moreover, it is plain that the
    statute “applies evenhandedly to all [government contractors],
    regardless of their viewpoint,” Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    , and regardless of their form of organization, see 
    52 U.S.C. § 30119
    (a)(1) (barring the “person” who enters into the contract
    from making the contribution); 
    id.
     § 30101(11) (defining
    “person” to “include[] an individual, partnership, committee,
    association, corporation, labor organization, or any other
    organization or group of persons”). And nothing in the statute’s
    history even hints at any purpose to disfavor individual
    contractors as against the categories proffered by the plaintiffs.
    In Williams-Yulee, the Court noted that
    “[u]nderinclusiveness can also reveal that a law does not
    actually advance a compelling interest.” 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    . See
    also Blount, 
    61 F.3d at 946
     (noting that a rule may be “struck for
    underinclusiveness . . . if it cannot ‘fairly be said to advance any
    genuinely substantial governmental interest’” (quoting FCC v.
    League of Women Voters, 
    468 U.S. 364
    , 396 (1984))). As an
    example of that kind of case, the Court cited the facts of Smith
    v. Daily Mail, where the Court struck down a state statute
    banning newspapers from disclosing the names of juvenile
    defendants because, inter alia, the statutory purpose -- protecting
    the anonymity of juvenile offenders -- was entirely vitiated by
    the statute’s failure to bar electronic media from making the
    same disclosures. Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at
    1668 (citing
    51
    Smith v. Daily Mail Publ’g Co., 
    443 U.S. 97
    , 104-105 (1979)).33
    But here, the record reflects that § 30119 does advance, albeit
    imperfectly, the government’s important interests in protecting
    against quid pro quo corruption and its appearance, and in
    protecting merit-based public administration.
    With these general principles in mind, we now briefly
    examine each of the categories of underinclusiveness to which
    the plaintiffs draw our attention.
    A
    The plaintiffs’ first category includes entities and
    individuals associated with corporations that have government
    contracts. Like the plaintiffs, corporations that contract with
    federal agencies cannot make contributions in federal elections.
    See 
    52 U.S.C. §§ 30119
    (a), 30101(11).34 At the same time, it is
    true that corporate contractors (like other corporations) are
    permitted to form PACs -- separate segregated funds that can
    33
    Cf. Reed v. Town of Gilbert, No. 13-502, 
    2015 WL 2473374
    , at
    *11 (U.S. June 18, 2015) (holding that a town’s content-based sign
    regulation failed strict scrutiny because “[t]he Town cannot claim that
    placing strict limits on temporary directional signs is necessary to
    beautify the Town while at the same time allowing unlimited numbers
    of other types of signs that create the same problem”); Sanjour v. EPA,
    
    56 F.3d 85
    , 95 (D.C. Cir. 1995) (en banc) (“Because the government
    has . . . not even attempted to regulate a broad category of behavior
    . . . giving rise to precisely the harm that supposedly motivated it to
    adopt the [challenged] regulations, we have trouble taking the
    government’s avowed interest to heart.”).
    34
    The ban on corporate contractor contributions is a consequence
    not only of § 30119, but also of 
    52 U.S.C. § 30118
    , which bans
    contributions by any corporation in a federal election. See Beaumont,
    
    539 U.S. 146
     (upholding the ban on corporate contributions).
    52
    make campaign contributions with non-treasury funds solicited
    from shareholders, certain personnel, and their families. See 
    52 U.S.C. § 30119
    (b); 
    id.
     § 30118(b). Officers, employees, and
    shareholders of corporate contractors are also free to make direct
    contributions “from their personal assets.” 
    11 C.F.R. § 115.6
    .
    And it may be that individuals who control LLCs that contract
    with the federal government can make contributions as well.
    But none of these allowances fatally undermines the statutory
    regime.
    1. A corporation is a separate legal entity from a PAC. See
    Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 337
    ; Mass. Citizens for Life, 
    479 U.S. at 252-56
    . As a consequence, the Supreme Court has said
    that the political expression of a PAC is not equivalent to that of
    its associated corporation. See Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 337
    (“A PAC is a separate association from the corporation. So the
    PAC exemption from [FECA’s] expenditure ban does not allow
    corporations to speak.” (citation omitted)). Congress’ decision
    to permit contributions by PACs associated with contracting
    corporations is therefore not inconsistent with its decision to
    prohibit contributions by contractors themselves.
    In Williams-Yulee, the Court considered a similar
    underinclusiveness challenge to Florida’s ban on personal
    solicitation of campaign funds by judicial candidates. That ban
    “allow[ed] a judge’s campaign committee to solicit money,”
    which the petitioner argued “reduces public confidence in the
    integrity of the judiciary just as much as a judge’s personal
    solicitation.” 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    . The Court was not moved.
    “However similar the two solicitations may be in substance,” the
    Court said, “a State may conclude that they present markedly
    different appearances to the public. Florida’s choice to allow
    solicitation by campaign committees does not undermine its
    decision to ban solicitation by judges.” 
    Id. at 1669
    . The same
    can be said of Congress’ choice to permit contributions by
    53
    political committees associated with corporate contractors, while
    banning contributions by contractors themselves.
    2. Respecting the corporate form, and therefore according
    separate treatment to shareholders and other individuals
    associated with corporations, is also constitutional. In Blount,
    we considered and rejected a similar underinclusiveness
    challenge to the SEC’s pay-to-play rule, which, while restricting
    contributions by municipal securities professionals, did not
    extend the restriction to the chief executives of banks with
    municipal securities departments. “[A] regulation is not fatally
    underinclusive,” we said, “simply because an alternative
    regulation, which would restrict more speech or the speech of
    more people, could be more effective.” Blount, 
    61 F.3d at 946
    .
    In upholding the SEC’s rule, Blount also noted the SEC’s
    explanation that this “loophole,” like others in the rule, reflected
    the Commission’s sensitivity to First Amendment concerns
    about overinclusiveness. 
    Id. at 947
    . Here, too, Congress could
    reasonably have concluded that banning contributions by all
    those associated with corporate contractors would go too far at
    too great a First Amendment cost.
    3. The plaintiffs further argue that, while they contract
    directly with the federal government for their services and so are
    barred from making contributions, they or other individuals
    could instead establish an LLC to formally contract with the
    government and receive payment for their work. Then, because
    the FEC has ruled that the contractor contribution ban does not
    apply to an entity’s “employees, officers, or members,” 
    11 C.F.R. § 115.6
    , the plaintiffs maintain that such individuals
    would remain free to make contributions. The availability of
    this LLC loophole, they say, vitiates the statutory purpose.
    54
    Although the FEC’s briefs accepted the plaintiffs’
    description of the regulatory treatment of individuals who
    establish LLCs, the agency submitted a post-argument letter
    clarifying that the Commission itself “has not addressed the
    application of FECA’s contractor contribution prohibition to
    contributions made by an individual who is the sole member of
    an LLC that is a federal contractor.” FEC Post-Argument Letter
    at 6 (Nov. 24, 2014) (emphasis omitted).35 Perhaps for that
    reason, there is no evidence in the record that anyone has ever
    used an LLC as a loophole to permit him or her to make an
    individual campaign contribution.36
    The plaintiffs’ own evidence highlights the not insignificant
    costs involved in both establishing and operating as an LLC.
    See Tiemann Decl. ¶ 3, cited in D. Ct. Findings ¶ 19. Moreover,
    at oral argument, plaintiffs’ counsel acknowledged that “persons
    like Mr. Miller and Mr. Brown almost certainly could not have
    [contracted] through [an] LLC” -- both because the agency may
    not have allowed it, and because of the “substantial sacrifice”
    they would have incurred by forgoing various benefits that come
    with employment-like contracts. Oral Arg. Recording 23:13-58.
    In short, in the absence of any evidence of circumvention-by-
    LLC, the failure to plug this speculative loophole is hardly a
    35
    The statute, of course, does not mention LLCs, which first
    emerged in the late 1970s. See Treatment of Limited Liability
    Companies Under the Federal Election Campaign Act, 
    64 Fed. Reg. 37397
    , 37398 (July 12, 1999).
    36
    One witness opined that, at least with respect to consulting-type
    contracts, client agencies are indifferent between contracting with an
    LLC and contracting with an individual. See Schooner Decl. ¶ 8, cited
    in D. Ct. Findings ¶ 20. The witness did not say how many such
    arrangements there are, or that any individuals using LLCs had
    actually made campaign contributions. Id.; see also Lubbers Decl. ¶ 8,
    cited in D. Ct. Findings ¶ 20.
    55
    basis for invalidating the statute. Cf. Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1670
     (“Even under strict scrutiny, ‘[t]he First Amendment
    does not require States to regulate for problems that do not
    exist.’” (quoting Burson, 
    504 U.S. at 207
    )).
    B
    The second category proffered by the plaintiffs as evidence
    of § 30119’s underinclusiveness is composed of federal
    employees who, unlike federal contractors, are generally not
    barred from making campaign contributions. See 
    5 C.F.R. § 734.208
    (a). As with the other categories, there is no ground
    for concluding that Congress chose to invidiously discriminate
    against contractors in favor of employees. And while federal
    employees are permitted to make contributions, they are subject
    to other restrictions (pursuant to the Hatch Act) and enjoy other
    protections (pursuant to the Civil Service Reform Act) that do
    not apply to contractors.37
    37
    The Hatch Act bars most federal employees from, inter alia,
    soliciting or accepting political contributions, running for office in a
    partisan election, hosting a political fundraiser, or engaging in political
    activity while on duty or in a federal building. See 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 7323
    (a), 7324(a); 
    5 C.F.R. §§ 734.302
    -.306. Employees of more
    than a dozen specific agencies, as well as others who hold certain
    senior or adjudicative positions, are more broadly prohibited from
    “tak[ing] an active part in . . . political campaigns.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 7323
    (b)(2)(A). Under the Civil Service Reform Act, covered
    employees are protected against “prohibited personnel practices,”
    including discrimination on the basis of political affiliation and
    coercion to make political contributions. 
    5 U.S.C. § 2302
    (a)(1),
    (b)(1)(E), (b)(3). Aggrieved employees who have been subjected to
    such practices can seek redress through the Office of Special Counsel
    and the Merit Systems Protection Board. 
    5 U.S.C. §§ 1214-15
    , 1221.
    56
    Congress could reasonably have thought that the difference
    in status of the two kinds of workers warrants this difference in
    treatment. Because regular employees do not generally need
    new contracts or renewals with the frequency required by
    outside contractors, permitting them to make contributions
    carries less risk of corruption or its appearance: employees have
    less to gain from making contributions and less to lose from not
    making them.38 It is true, as the plaintiffs note, that employees
    have other concerns that could make them susceptible to
    coercion, including the desire for promotion or the fear of
    termination. But Congress has provided them with merit system
    protections that guard against that risk. See supra note 37. We
    see no basis for overturning Congress’ decision about how to
    calibrate these different restrictions.39
    C
    Finally, the plaintiffs’ comparison of contractors to a
    miscellany of other individuals who seek government benefits
    or positions -- particularly grants and loans, admission to the
    military academies, and ambassadorships -- is equally
    38
    Cf. 86 CONG. REC. 2580 (1940) (statement of Sen. Brown)
    (“[T]he Government clerk, if he is not under civil service, is interested
    in keeping in power the party that is in power and that gave him a job.
    . . . I can apply the same principle . . . . to contractors who are doing
    business with the Government of the United States.” (emphasis
    added)).
    39
    Cf. Broadrick v. Oklahoma, 
    413 U.S. 601
    , 607 n.5 (1973)
    (rejecting equal protection challenge to Oklahoma statute “singling out
    classified service employees for restrictions on partisan political
    expression while leaving unclassified personnel free from such
    restrictions” because “the legislature must have some leeway in
    determining which of its employment positions require restrictions on
    partisan political activities and which may be left unregulated”).
    57
    unavailing. Once again, there is no basis for a claim that
    Congress invidiously discriminated against contractors and in
    favor of others. Nor is there any reason to believe that
    permitting contributions by these other individuals defeats
    § 30119’s purpose of protecting against corruption and
    interference with merit-based administration. Congress is surely
    not prohibited from fighting such problems in one sector unless
    it fights them in all. As the Supreme Court has said, “‘a
    legislature need not strike at all evils at the same time.’”
    Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 105
     (quoting Katzenbach v. Morgan, 
    384 U.S. 641
    , 657 (1966)). Rather, “reform may take one step at a
    time, addressing itself to the phase of the problem which seems
    most acute to the legislative mind.” 
    Id.
     (internal quotation
    marks and citations omitted); see Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    .
    D
    We conclude that the contractor contribution ban is not
    fatally underinclusive. There is no doubt that “the proffered
    state interest actually underlies the law,” and that it can “fairly
    be said” that the statute “advance[s] a[] genuinely substantial
    governmental interest.” Blount, 
    61 F.3d at 946
     (citations and
    internal quotation marks omitted). The plaintiffs may well be
    right that the ban would be even more effective if it swept in
    more potential contributors. But § 30119 “aims squarely at the
    conduct most likely to undermine” the important interests that
    underlie it, and “[w]e will not punish [Congress] for leaving
    open more, rather than fewer, avenues of expression, especially
    when there is no indication that the selective restriction of
    speech reflects a pretextual motive.” Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668-70
    .
    Accordingly, and in light of the analysis of the preceding
    Parts, we reject the plaintiffs’ First Amendment challenge.
    58
    VI
    In addition to their First Amendment claim, the plaintiffs
    challenge § 30119 under the equal protection component of the
    Fifth Amendment. Equal protection is violated, they maintain,
    because the statute subjects individual contractors like
    themselves to a ban that it does not apply to two categories of
    similarly situated persons: (1) entities and individuals associated
    with firms that have government contracts (i.e., PACs of
    contracting corporations; officers, employees, and shareholders
    of contracting corporations; and individuals who control
    contracting LLCs); and (2) individuals who are regular
    employees rather than contractors.
    If this argument sounds familiar, it should. It is the same
    argument that we have just considered, and rejected, when
    clothed in the garb of a First Amendment claim that § 30119 is
    too underinclusive to satisfy the “closely drawn” standard.40
    Now dressing their argument as an equal protection claim, the
    plaintiffs insist that we must evaluate it under strict scrutiny.
    That is so, they say, because “the right to make a political
    contribution is a fundamental right protected by the First
    Amendment,” and because “strict scrutiny is required when a
    law . . . ‘impinges upon a fundamental right explicitly or
    implicitly protected by the Constitution.’” Pls. Br. 25 (quoting
    San Antonio Indep. Sch. Dist. v. Rodriguez, 
    411 U.S. 1
    , 17
    (1973)).
    We reject this doctrinal gambit, which would require strict
    scrutiny notwithstanding the Supreme Court’s determination that
    the “closely drawn” standard is the appropriate one under the
    40
    As noted above, the plaintiffs’ underinclusiveness argument
    included a third category as well: individuals seeking a miscellany of
    other government benefits or positions. See supra note 30.
    59
    First Amendment. Although the Court has on occasion applied
    strict scrutiny in examining equal protection challenges in cases
    involving First Amendment rights, it has done so only when a
    First Amendment analysis would itself have required such
    scrutiny.41 There is consequently no case in which the Supreme
    Court has employed strict scrutiny to analyze a contribution
    restriction under equal protection principles. Indeed, the
    plaintiffs acknowledge that they know of no case in any court
    “in which an equal-protection challenge to contribution limits
    succeeded where a First Amendment one did not.” Wagner, 901
    F. Supp. 2d at 112. This will not be the first.
    As we explained in Ruggiero v. FCC, “[a]lthough equal
    protection analysis focuses upon the validity of the classification
    rather than the speech restriction, ‘the critical questions asked
    are the same.’ We believe that the same level of scrutiny . . . is
    therefore appropriate in both contexts.” 
    317 F.3d 239
    , 247 (D.C.
    Cir. 2003) (en banc) (quoting Cmty.-Serv. Broad. of Mid-Am.,
    Inc. v. FCC, 
    593 F.2d 1102
     (D.C. Cir. 1978) (en banc)).42 That
    has been this court’s consistent view. See, e.g., Int’l Ass’n of
    Machinists v. FEC, 
    678 F.2d 1092
    , 1106 (D.C. Cir. 1982) (en
    banc) (observing that “the nature and quality of the legislative
    action at issue determine the intensity of judicial review of
    intertwined equal protection, First Amendment claims”); see
    41
    See Austin v. Mich. Chamber of Commerce, 
    494 U.S. 652
    , 655,
    666 (1990) (applying strict scrutiny in determining whether
    restrictions on independent expenditures by corporations but not
    unincorporated associations passed muster under the Equal Protection
    Clause), overruled on other grounds by Citizens United, 
    558 U.S. at 365
    .
    42
    In Ruggiero, that level of scrutiny was “heightened rational
    basis.” 
    317 F.3d at 247
    .
    60
    also Reform Party of Allegheny Cnty. v. Allegheny Cnty. Dep’t
    of Elections, 
    174 F.3d 305
    , 314 (3d Cir. 1999) (en banc).
    It is certainly true that the Court “has occasionally fused the
    First Amendment into the Equal Protection Clause” in
    concluding that “content-based discrimination” is not a
    legitimate government interest because it “violates the First
    Amendment.” R.A.V., 
    505 U.S. at
    384 n.4.43 And it is likewise
    true that the Court has sometimes examined campaign finance
    classifications to determine whether they are invidious in the
    context of a First Amendment analysis, see Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668-70
    , and sometimes in the context of an equal
    protection analysis, see Buckley, 
    424 U.S. at 31-33
    , 105 &
    n.143. But in a case like this one, in which there is no doubt that
    the interests invoked in support of the challenged legislative
    classification are legitimate, and no doubt that the classification
    was designed to vindicate those interests rather than disfavor a
    particular speaker or viewpoint, the challengers “can fare no
    better under the Equal Protection Clause than under the First
    Amendment itself.” City of Renton v. Playtime Theatres, Inc.,
    
    475 U.S. 41
    , 55 n.4 (1986).44 For the reasons discussed in the
    43
    See City of Ladue, 
    512 U.S. at
    51 n.9 (observing that regulatory
    distinctions based on the content of speech “may fall afoul of the
    Equal Protection Clause”); Police Dep’t of Chi. v. Mosley, 
    408 U.S. 92
    , 95 (1972) (observing that “the equal protection claim . . . is closely
    intertwined with First Amendment interests” when a classification
    discriminates on the basis of the content of speech); see also Carey v.
    Brown, 
    447 U.S. 455
    , 463 n.7 (1980) (describing Mosley as a
    “pronouncement that the First and Fourteenth Amendments forbid
    discrimination in the regulation of expression on the basis of the
    content of that expression” (emphasis added)).
    44
    Cf. Blount, 
    61 F.3d at
    946 & n.4 (concluding that the invalidity
    of an equal protection challenge to the SEC’s pay-to-play rule
    followed a fortiori from the court’s rejection of the claim that the rule
    61
    preceding Parts, when we apply the same degree of scrutiny to
    the plaintiffs’ equal protection challenge, we find it wanting.
    VII
    As should by now be clear, this is a somewhat unusual
    campaign finance case in at least two respects. First, there is no
    dispute regarding the legitimacy or importance of the interests
    that support the contractor contribution ban. In § 30119,
    Congress was plainly not attempting “to reduce the amount of
    money in politics, or to restrict the political participation of
    some in order to enhance the relative influence of others.”
    McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at
    1441 (citing, e.g., Ariz. Free Enter.
    Club’s Freedom Club PAC v. Bennett, 
    131 S. Ct. 2806
    , 2825-26
    (2011)). Nor did it create a mechanism “to level the playing
    field, or to level electoral opportunities, or to equaliz[e] the
    financial resources of candidates.” Id. at 1450 (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Nor did it “‘disfavor[] a particular
    speaker or viewpoint,’” Williams-Yulee, 
    135 S. Ct. at 1668
    (quoting Brown, 
    131 S. Ct. at 2740
    ), or favor incumbents over
    challengers, cf. Randall v. Sorrell, 
    548 U.S. 230
    , 249, 253
    (2006) (plurality opinion). To the contrary, the interests
    supporting the statute are ones that the Supreme Court has long
    approved -- indeed, endorsed -- as legitimate and important
    grounds for restricting campaign contributions and certain
    related associational freedoms.
    Second, the contractor contribution ban rests on not one but
    two such interests. The ban is not only supported by the
    “compelling” interest in protecting against quid pro quo
    corruption and its appearance, McCutcheon, 
    134 S. Ct. at
    1444-
    45, commonly at issue in campaign finance cases. It is also
    supported by the “obviously important interest[]” in protecting
    violated the First Amendment as impermissibly underinclusive).
    62
    merit-based public administration, Letter Carriers, 
    413 U.S. at 564
    , commonly at issue in cases involving limits on partisan
    activities by government employees.
    The long historical experience recounted in Part III further
    makes clear that these important concerns supporting § 30119
    are neither theoretical nor antiquated, but rather are grounded in
    unhappy experience stretching to the present day. And for the
    reasons set forth in Parts IV through VI, we also conclude that
    the statute employs means closely drawn to avoid unnecessary
    abridgement of associational freedoms, and does not deprive the
    plaintiffs of equal protection of the laws. Accordingly, we
    uphold the statute against all of the plaintiffs’ constitutional
    challenges.
    So ordered.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 13-5162

Citation Numbers: 417 App. D.C. 1, 793 F.3d 1

Filed Date: 7/7/2015

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 1/12/2023

Authorities (69)

United States v. Phillip Troutman , 814 F.2d 1428 ( 1987 )

Green Party of Connecticut v. Garfield , 616 F.3d 213 ( 2010 )

Preston v. Leake , 660 F.3d 726 ( 2011 )

Reform Party of Allegheny County v. Allegheny County ... , 174 F.3d 305 ( 1999 )

United States v. Harrison A. Williams, Jr. And Alexander ... , 705 F.2d 603 ( 1983 )

Green Party of Connecticut v. Garfield , 616 F.3d 189 ( 2010 )

Emily's List v. Federal Election Commission , 581 F.3d 1 ( 2009 )

Munsell v. Department of Agriculture , 509 F.3d 572 ( 2007 )

Community-Service Broadcasting of Mid-America, Inc. v. ... , 593 F.2d 1102 ( 1978 )

Ruggiero v. Federal Communications Commission , 317 F.3d 239 ( 2003 )

William B. Blount v. Securities and Exchange Commission, ... , 61 F.3d 938 ( 1995 )

International Association of MacHinists and Aerospace ... , 678 F.2d 1092 ( 1982 )

United States v. Warner , 498 F.3d 666 ( 2007 )

William Sanjour v. Environmental Protection Agency , 56 F.3d 85 ( 1995 )

Buckley v. Valeo , 96 S. Ct. 612 ( 1976 )

james-l-buckley-united-states-senator-from-the-state-of-new-york-v , 519 F.2d 821 ( 1975 )

McConnell v. Federal Election Commission , 251 F. Supp. 2d 176 ( 2003 )

Bluman v. Federal Election Commission , 800 F. Supp. 2d 281 ( 2011 )

United States v. Williams , 529 F. Supp. 1085 ( 1981 )

SpeechNow. Org v. FEDERAL ELECTION COM'N , 599 F.3d 686 ( 2010 )

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