Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC ( 2019 )


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  •                                            PRECEDENTIAL
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    _________________
    Nos. 17-1107, 17-1109, 17-1110, 17-1111
    _________________
    PROMETHEUS RADIO PROJECT
    *National Association of Broadcasters
    **Cox Media Group LLC,
    Intervenors
    v.
    FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION;
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
    Prometheus Radio Project and Media Mobilizing Project,
    Petitioners in No. 17-1107
    Multicultural Media, Telecom and Internet Counsel and
    National Association of Black Owned Broadcasters, Inc.,
    Petitioners in 17-1109
    The Scranton Times, L.P.,
    Petitioners in 17-1110
    Bonneville International Corporation,
    Petitioners in 17-1111
    * Prometheus Radio Project, Media Mobilizing Project,
    Benton Foundation, Common Cause, Media Alliance,
    Media Council Hawaii, National Association of Broadcasters
    Employees and Technicians Communications Workers of
    America, National Organization for Woman Foundation,
    Office of Communication of the United Church of Christ Inc.,
    Intervenors
    *(Pursuant to the Clerk’s Order date 1/18/17)
    ** (Pursuant to the Clerk’s Order dated 2/7/17)
    _________________
    Nos. 18-1092, 18-1669, 18-1670, 18-1671,
    18-2943 & 18-3335
    _________________
    PROMETHEUS RADIO PROJECT;
    MEDIA MOBILIZING PROJECT,
    Petitioners (No. 18-1092, 18-2943)
    INDEPENDENT TELEVISION GROUP,
    Petitioners (No. 18-1669)
    MULTICULTURAL MEDIA, TELECOM AND
    INTERNET COUNCIL, INC.;
    NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF
    BLACK-OWNED BROADCASTERS,
    Petitioners (No. 18-1670, 18-3335)
    2
    FREE PRESS;
    OFFICE OF COMMUNICATION, INC.
    OF THE UNITED CHURCH OF CHRIST;
    NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF BROADCAST
    EMPLOYEES AND TECHNICIANS-COMMUNICATIONS
    WORKERS OF AMERICA; COMMON CAUSE,
    Petitioners (No. 18-1671)
    v.
    FEDERAL COMMUNICATIONS COMMISSION;
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
    _________________
    On Petition for Review of An Order of
    the Federal Communications Commission
    (FCC Nos. FCC-1: FCC-16-107; FCC-17-156; FCC-18-114)
    _________________
    Argued June 11, 2019
    Before: AMBRO, SCIRICA, and FUENTES, Circuit Judges
    (Opinion filed September 23, 2019)
    Angela J. Campbell
    Andrew J. Schwartzman
    James T. Graves
    Institute for Public Representation
    Georgetown Law
    600 New Jersey Avenue, N.W., Suite 312
    Washington, DC 20001
    3
    Counsel for Petitioners
    Prometheus Radio Project,
    Media Mobilizing Project
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondents
    Benton Foundation, National Association of
    Broadcast Employees and Technicians
    Communication Workers of America,
    National Organization for Women Foundation,
    Office of Communication Inc. of the Church
    of Christ,
    Cheryl A. Leanza (Argued)
    Best Best & Krieger
    2000 Pennsylvania Avenue, Suite 5300
    Washington, DC 20006
    Counsel for Petitioners
    Prometheus Radio Project, Media Mobilizing Project,
    Office of Communication Inc. of the United Church of
    Christ, National Association of Broadcast Employees
    and Technicians Communications Workers of
    America, Common Cause
    Dennis Lane (Argued)
    David D’Alessandro
    Stinson Leonard Street
    1775 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 800
    Washington, DC 20006
    Counsel for Petitioner
    Multicultural Media Telecom and Internet Council
    4
    National Association of Black Owned
    Broadcasters, Inc.
    Craig E. Gilmore
    Kenneth E. Satten
    Wilkinson Barker Knauer
    1800 M Street, N.W., Suite 800N
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Petitioners
    Scranton Times LP,
    Bonneville International Corp.
    Jack N. Goodman (Argued)
    Law Offices of Jack N. Goodman
    1200 New Hampshire Avenue, N.W.
    Suite 600
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Petitioner
    Independent Television Group
    Jessica J. Gonzalez
    Free Press
    1025 Connecticut Avenue, N.W., Suite 1110
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Petitioner
    Free Press
    5
    Thomas M. Johnson, Jr.
    General Counsel
    David M. Gossett
    Deputy General Counsel
    Jacob M. Lewis (Argued)
    Associate General Counsel
    James M. Carr
    Matthew J. Dunne (Argued)
    William Scher
    Richard K. Welch
    Federal Communications Commission
    445 12th Street, S.W.
    Washington, DC 20554
    Counsel for Respondent
    Federal Communications Commission
    Makan Delrahim
    Assistant Attorney General
    Michael F. Murray
    Deputy Assistant Attorney General
    Nickolai Gilford Levin
    Robert B. Nicholson
    Robert J. Wiggers
    United States Department of Justice
    Antitrust Division/Appellate Section
    950 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W.
    Washington, DC 20004
    Counsel for Respondent
    United States of America
    6
    Helgi C. Walker (Argued)
    Andrew G. I. Kilberg
    Gibson Dunn & Crutcher
    1050 Connecticut Avenue, N.W.
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Intervenor Petitioner/Respondent
    National Association of Broadcasters
    Yosef Getachew
    Common Cause
    805 15th Street, N.W., Suite 800
    Washington, DC 20005
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent/Petitioner
    Common Cause
    David E. Mills
    Cooley
    1299 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Suite 700
    Washington, DC 20004
    Counsel for Intervenor Petitioner
    Cox Media Group LLC
    Kevin F. King
    Rafael Reyneri
    Andrew Soukup
    Covington & Burling
    850 10th Street, N.W.
    One City Center
    Washington, DC 20001
    7
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent
    Fox Corp.
    David D. Oxenford
    Wilkinson Barker Knauer
    1800 M Street, N.W., Suite 800N
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent
    Connoisseur Media LLC
    Paul A. Cicelski
    S. Jenell Trigg
    Lerman Senter
    2001 L Street, N.W., Suite 400
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent
    New Corp.
    Eve Klindera Reed
    Jeremy J. Broggi
    Wiley Rein
    1776 K Street, N.W.
    Washington, DC 20006
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent
    Nextar Broadcasting Inc.
    8
    Jeetander T. Dulani
    Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman
    1200 17th Street, N.W.
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Intervenor Respondent
    Sinclair Broadcast Group Inc.
    _________________
    OPINION OF THE COURT
    _________________
    AMBRO, Circuit Judge
    Here we are again. After our last encounter with the
    periodic review by the Federal Communications Commission
    (the “FCC” or the “Commission”) of its broadcast ownership
    rules and diversity initiatives, the Commission has taken a series
    of actions that, cumulatively, have substantially changed its
    approach to regulation of broadcast media ownership. First, it
    issued an order that retained almost all of its existing rules in
    their current form, effectively abandoning its long-running
    efforts to change those rules going back to the first round of this
    litigation. Then it changed course, granting petitions for
    rehearing and repealing or otherwise scaling back most of those
    same rules. It also created a new “incubator” program designed
    to help new entrants into the broadcast industry. The
    Commission, in short, has been busy. Its actions unsurprisingly
    aroused opposition from many of the same groups that have
    battled it over the past fifteen years, and that opposition has
    brought the parties back to us.
    One of these petitioners argues that the FCC did not go
    9
    far enough, and that the same logic by which it repealed the so-
    called “eight voices” test of the local television ownership rule
    (which forbade mergers that would leave fewer than eight
    independently-owned stations in the market) should also have
    led it to abolish the “top-four” restriction in the same rule
    (which forbids mergers among two or more of the four largest
    stations in a market). We disagree; this was a reasonable
    exercise of the Commission’s policy-making discretion, as we
    held in the first round of this litigation.
    Another group of petitioners argues that the
    Commission’s new incubator program is badly designed, as its
    definition of “comparable markets” for the reward waivers was
    unlawfully adopted and would create perverse incentives. It
    also argues that the Commission has unreasonably failed to act
    on a proposal to extend the so-called “cable procurement rules,”
    which promote diversity in the cable television industry, to
    broadcast media. We disagree: the “comparable markets”
    definition for the incubator program was also a reasonable
    exercise of discretion, and the FCC’s failure to act on the
    procurement rules proposal is not unreasonable so far.
    We do, however, agree with the last group of petitioners,
    who argue that the Commission did not adequately consider the
    effect its sweeping rule changes will have on ownership of
    broadcast media by women and racial minorities. Although it
    did ostensibly comply with our prior requirement to consider
    this issue on remand, its analysis is so insubstantial that we
    cannot say it provides a reliable foundation for the
    Commission’s conclusions. Accordingly, we vacate and remand
    the bulk of its actions in this area over the last three years. In
    doing so, we decline to grant the requested extraordinary relief
    of appointing a special master to oversee the FCC’s work on
    remand.
    10
    I. Background
    To avoid sounding like a broken record, we recount only
    in brief the history of this case up through our most recent
    decision. The full account of the entire saga can be found in our
    earlier opinions. See Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC, 
    373 F.3d 372
    , 382–89 (3d Cir. 2004) (“Prometheus I”); Prometheus
    Radio Project v. FCC, 
    652 F.3d 431
    , 438–44 (3d Cir. 2011)
    (“Prometheus II”); and Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC, 
    824 F.3d 33
    , 37–39 (3d Cir. 2016) (“Prometheus III”).
    Under the Communications Act of 1934, 
    47 U.S.C. § 151
    et seq., Pub. L. No. 73-416, 
    48 Stat. 1064
     (1934), the Federal
    Communications Commission has long maintained a collection
    of rules governing ownership of broadcast media. By
    preventing any one entity from owning more than a certain
    amount of broadcast media, these rules limit consolidation and
    promote a number of interests, commonly stated as
    “competition, diversity, and localism.” See, e.g., Report and
    Order and Notice of Proposed Rulemaking—2002 Biennial
    Regulatory Review, 18 F.C.C.R. 13620 ¶ 8 (July 2, 2003). By
    1996, however, there was growing sentiment that these rules
    were overly restrictive, and so Congress passed the
    Telecommunications Act. Pub. L. No. 104–104, 
    110 Stat. 56
    (1996). Section 202(h) of that Act requires the Commission to
    review the broadcast ownership rules on a regular basis—
    initially biennial, later amended to quadrennial, see Pub. L. No.
    108–199, § 629, 
    118 Stat. 3
    , 99–100 (2004)—to “determine
    whether any of such rules are necessary in the public interest as
    the result of competition.” Telecommunications Act, § 202(h).
    The Commission “shall repeal or modify any regulation it
    determines to be no longer in the public interest.” Id.
    11
    Thrice before we have passed on the Commission’s
    performance of its duties under § 202(h), or the lack thereof. In
    Prometheus I we reviewed the results of the 2002 quadrennial
    review cycle. Then in Prometheus II we reviewed the results of
    the 2006 review cycle, which included the FCC’s actions on
    remand from Prometheus I, as well as a separate order adopting
    various policies designed to promote broadcast media ownership
    by women and racial minorities.
    After Prometheus II the Commission failed to complete
    its 2010 review cycle prior to the start of the 2014 cycle, and so
    in Prometheus III we reviewed not final agency action pursuant
    to § 202(h) but rather, for the most part, agency inaction.
    Although we found the FCC had unreasonably delayed action on
    the 2010 and 2014 review cycles, we declined to vacate the
    broadcast ownership rules in their entirety, but noted such a
    drastic remedy could become appropriate in the future if the
    Commission continued dragging its feet. Id., 824 F.3d at 53–54.
    Relatedly, we remanded a newly adopted rule governing the
    treatment of joint sales agreements for purposes of the television
    local ownership rule, reasoning that the FCC could not have a
    valid basis for promulgating such a rule without first having
    determined, as required by § 202(h), that the local ownership
    rule itself should remain in place. Id. at 58–60.
    We also held that the Commission had unreasonably
    delayed a determination on the definition of “eligible entities.”
    These are given certain preferences under the ownership rules,
    see id. at 41, and the purpose of these preferences was to
    encourage ownership by women and minorities. The definition,
    however, was drawn from the Small Business Administration’s
    definition of small businesses, and focused solely on a
    company’s revenues. In Prometheus I we had suggested that, on
    remand, the FCC should consider adopting a different definition
    12
    based on the criteria for “socially and economically
    disadvantaged businesses” (“SDBs”). See 
    373 F.3d at
    428 n.70;
    see also 
    13 C.F.R. § 124.103
     (defining socially disadvantaged
    businesses). The Commission declined to adopt an SDB
    definition, and in Prometheus II we held that the revenue-based
    definition was arbitrary and capricious because there was no
    evidence it would advance the goals of increasing ownership by
    women and minorities. 
    652 F.3d at
    469–71.
    But the Commission had not reached a determination one
    way or the other by Prometheus III. Instead it had suggested—
    in various documents issued after Prometheus II, none of which
    constituted final agency action on the matter—that it would
    reject a SDB definition, or the similar “overcoming
    disadvantage preference” (“ODP”) proposal, because it did not
    believe those rules could survive constitutional scrutiny under
    the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. See
    824 F.3d at 45–48. It therefore indicated its tentative plan to
    adopt the same definition we held unlawful in Prometheus II,
    even though it still lacked evidence that this would promote
    ownership diversity, because promoting ownership by small
    businesses would be in the public interest regardless. Id. at 46.
    We held that the Commission “had more than enough
    time to reach a decision on the eligible entity definition.” Id. at
    48.     This led to a remand and an “order [to] the
    Commission . . . to act promptly to bring the eligible entity
    definition to a close.” Id. at 50. It was to “make a final
    determination as to whether to adopt a new definition;” “[i]f it
    need[ed] more data to do so, it must get it.” Id. Finally, we
    pointed out that we did “not intend to prejudge the outcome” of
    the FCC’s analysis, and that we would review the merits of its
    eventual decision once that decision had been made through a
    final order. Id. at 50–51.
    13
    Three months after we decided Prometheus III, the
    Commission followed through on its promise to take final action
    on the 2010 and 2014 review cycles. Its Second Report and
    Order, 2014 Quadrennial Regulatory Review, 31 F.C.C.R. 9864
    (2016) (the “2016 Report & Order”), retained all of the major
    broadcast ownership rules—the newspaper/broadcast cross-
    ownership rule, the radio/television cross-ownership rule, the
    local radio ownership rule, and the local television ownership
    rule—in their existing forms. It also adopted, again, a revenue-
    based definition for eligible entities. It concluded that an SDB
    or any related race- or gender-conscious definition could not
    withstand constitutional scrutiny because, even though courts
    might accept viewpoint diversity as a compelling governmental
    interest, the evidence did not show a meaningful connection
    between female or minority ownership and viewpoint diversity.
    Id. ¶ 297. The Commission also declined to adopt an ODP
    standard, reasoning that it would require individualized
    assessment that is not compatible with the smooth operation of
    the FCC’s rules, and that such an individualized assessment
    could run afoul of First Amendment principles. Id. ¶ 306. On a
    related issue, the Commission declined to implement an
    “incubator program,” under which established broadcasters
    would be encouraged to assist new entrants to break into the
    industry, that would have employed an ODP standard. Finally,
    the Commission reviewed a number of other proposals to
    increase ownership diversity, rejecting most but noting some
    merit in a proposal to extend the cable procurement rules, which
    require cable companies to encourage minority-owned
    businesses to work with them, to broadcast media. The
    Commission did not adopt this idea, instead calling for further
    comment.
    A number of industry groups filed a petition for
    rehearing, and in November 2017 the Commission granted that
    petition in its Order on Reconsideration and Notice of Proposed
    14
    Rulemaking, 32 F.C.C.R. 9802 (2017) (the “Reconsideration
    Order”). This Order made sweeping changes to the ownership
    rules. It eliminated altogether the newspaper/broadcast and
    television/radio cross-ownership rules. It modified the local
    television ownership rule, rescinding the so-called “eight
    voices” test but retaining the rule against mergers between two
    of the top four stations in a given market—albeit now subject to
    a discretionary waiver provision. And it announced the
    Commission’s intention to adopt an incubator program, although
    it left the formal implementation of that program to a subsequent
    order. In this context, the Reconsideration Order called for
    comment on various aspects of the program, including how to
    define eligibility and how to encourage participation by
    established broadcasters.
    In August 2018 the Commission issued the Report and
    Order—In the Matter of Rules and Policies to Promote New
    Entry and Ownership Diversity in the Broadcasting Services, 33
    F.C.C.R. 7911 (2018) (the “Incubator Order”). That Order
    established a radio incubator program that would encourage
    established broadcasters to provide “training, financing, and
    access to resources” for new entrants in the market. Id. ¶ 6.
    Eligibility to receive this assistance was defined using two
    criteria: an incubated entity must (1) qualify as a small business
    under the Small Business Administration’s rules, and (2) qualify
    as a “new entrant,” meaning that it must own no television
    stations and no more than three radio stations. Id. ¶ 8. The
    eligibility criteria make no overt reference to race, gender, or
    social disadvantage, but the Commission concluded that using
    the “new entrant” criterion would help boost ownership by
    women and minorities, as a bidding preference for new entrants
    in FCC auctions had that effect. Id. ¶ 21.
    As an incentive for established broadcasters to participate
    15
    in the program, the Incubator Order grants the incubating entity
    a reward waiver for the local radio ownership rules. Among
    other options, the waiver may be used in any market
    “comparable” to the one in which incubation occurs. Id. ¶ 66–
    67. This means that it must be in the same market tier for
    purposes of the local radio rule, and these tiers are defined by
    the number of stations in a market. One tier runs from zero to
    14 stations, another from 15 to 29, a third from 30 to 44, and
    finally the highest tier includes all markets with 45 or more
    stations.
    Before us are 10 different petitions for review
    challenging different aspects of the Commission’s actions since
    Prometheus III. After the 2016 Report & Order issued in
    November of that year, Prometheus Radio Project
    (“Prometheus”) and Media Mobilization Project (“MMP”) filed
    a petition for review in our Court. About the same time, three
    other petitions for review of the 2016 Report & Order were filed
    in the D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals: one by The Scranton
    Times, L.P. (“Scranton”); one by Bonneville International
    Corporation (“Bonneville”); and one jointly by the Multicultural
    Media, Telecom and Internet Council, Inc. (“MMTC”) and the
    National Association of Black-Owned Broadcasters
    (“NABOB”). The cases before the D.C. Circuit were transferred
    here and the four cases consolidated in January 2017; they were
    then held in abeyance while the Commission considered the
    petitions for rehearing.
    After the Reconsideration Order issued in November
    2017, four additional petitions for review were filed: one by
    Prometheus and MMP in our Court as well as three in the D.C.
    Circuit from (1) Independent Television Group (“ITG”),
    (2) MMTC and NABOB, and (3) a coalition of groups including
    Free Press, the Office of Communication, Inc. of the United
    16
    Church of Christ (“UCC”), the National Association of
    Broadcast Employees and Technicians—Communications
    Workers of America (“NABET-CWA”), and Common Cause.
    Once again the D.C. Circuit transferred the petitions before it to
    our Court, and we consolidated the new wave of cases with the
    existing petitions.
    In February 2018 we stayed all proceedings pending the
    close of notice and comment on the Incubator Order. Once the
    final Order issued in August 2018, Prometheus and MMP filed a
    petition for review in our Court, and MMTC and NABOB filed
    another in the D.C. Circuit that was transferred here and the
    cases consolidated.
    For purposes of briefing and oral argument, the various
    petitioners divided into three groups. The first included
    Prometheus, MMP, Free Press, UCC, NABET-CWA, and
    Common Cause, who argue that the Commission has not
    adequately considered how its changes to the broadcast
    ownership rules will affect ownership by women and racial
    minorities. We refer to this group as “Citizen Petitioners,”
    consistent with our past practice. See Prometheus III, 824 F.3d
    at 39. A second group, consisting of MMTC and NABOB,
    argues that the Incubator Order’s definition of “comparable
    markets” is unlawful and that the Commission has unreasonably
    withheld action on a proposal to extend cable procurement rules
    to broadcast media. To distinguish this group, we refer to its
    members as “Diversity Petitioners.” Finally, ITG—standing
    alone now as the only “Deregulatory Petitioner”—challenges the
    retention of the “top-four” component of the local television rule
    (which, to repeat, bans mergers between two or more of the four
    largest stations in a given market).
    17
    The Commission defends its orders in their entirety.
    Additionally, a group of Intervenors—including both Scranton
    and Bonneville as well as many of the Deregulatory Petitioners
    from prior rounds of this litigation—defends the FCC’s actions
    and argues further that Citizen and Diversity Petitioners lack
    standing.
    II. Jurisdiction and Standard of Review
    We have jurisdiction to hear these petitions for review of
    agency action under 
    47 U.S.C. § 402
    (a) and 
    28 U.S.C. § 2342
    (1). As noted above and covered in § III.A below,
    Intervenors argue, with the support of the Commission, that
    Citizen and Diversity Petitioners lack standing.
    Per § 706(2) of the Administrative Procedure Act
    (“APA”), we can set aside agency action that is arbitrary or
    capricious. 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2). “The scope of review under the
    ‘arbitrary and capricious’ standard is narrow and a court is not to
    substitute its judgment for that of the agency.” Motor Vehicle
    Mfrs. Ass’n of U.S. v. State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983). Despite this deference, we require the agency to
    “examine the relevant data and articulate a satisfactory
    explanation for its action[,] including a rational connection
    between the facts found and the choice made.” 
    Id.
     (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    When the FCC conducts a Quadrennial Review under
    § 202(h), that provision also affects our standard of review, as it
    requires that “no matter what the Commission decides to do to
    any particular rule—retain, repeal, or modify (whether to make
    more or less stringent)—it must do so in the public interest and
    support its decision with a reasoned analysis.” Prometheus I,
    18
    
    373 F.3d at 395
    . When § 202(h) refers to rules being
    “necessary,” that term means “useful,” “convenient,” or
    “helpful.” Id. at 394.
    This case also involves challenges to agency inaction.
    Section 706(1) of the APA allows us to “compel agency action
    unlawfully withheld or unreasonably delayed.” 
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (1).       Under this provision, our “polestar is
    reasonableness.” Public Citizen Health Research Grp. v. Chao,
    
    314 F.3d 143
    , 151 (3d Cir. 2002). We must “balance the
    importance of the subject matter being regulated with the
    regulating agency’s need to discharge all of its statutory
    responsibilities under a reasonable timetable.” Oil, Chem. &
    Atomic Workers Union v. Occupational Safety & Health Admin.,
    
    145 F.3d 120
    , 123 (3d Cir. 1998).
    With this balance in mind, unreasonable delay
    should be measured by the following factors:
    First, the court should ascertain the length of time
    that has elapsed since the agency came under a
    duty to act. Second, the reasonableness of the
    delay should be judged in the context of the
    statute authorizing the agency’s action. Third, the
    court should assess the consequences of the
    agency’s delay. Fourth, [it] should consider any
    plea of administrative error, administrative
    inconvenience, practical difficulty in carrying out
    a legislative mandate, or need to prioritize in the
    face of limited resources.
    
    Id.
     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    19
    III. Analysis
    A. Standing
    As a threshold matter, Intervenors argue that Citizen and
    Diversity Petitioners (called “Regulatory Petitioners” for ease of
    reference in this section) lack standing, and the FCC concurs in
    that argument. To have standing to sue in federal court under
    Article III of the Constitution, a plaintiff must have (1) an
    “injury in fact,” meaning “an invasion of a legally protected
    interest which is (a) concrete and particularized[,] and (b) actual
    or imminent, not conjectural or hypothetical,” that is (2) “fairly
    traceable to the challenged action of the defendant,” and it must
    (3) be “likely, as opposed to merely speculative, that the injury
    will be redressed by a favorable decision.” Lujan v. Defenders
    of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560–61 (1992) (internal citations and
    quotation marks omitted).
    There are two separate disputes regarding Regulatory
    Petitioners’ standing. First is a procedural question. After
    Intervenors raised the issue in their merits brief, Regulatory
    Petitioners submitted declarations to establish standing along
    with their reply briefs. Intervenors now argue that we should
    not consider those declarations or the facts asserted within them
    because materials to establish standing must be submitted
    instead with Regulatory Petitioners’ opening briefs. Even
    accepting the declarations, Intervenors still dispute standing.
    We disagree on both counts. It is well established that
    petitioners challenging agency action may supplement the
    administrative record for the purpose of establishing Article III
    standing, even though judicial review of agency action is usually
    limited to the administrative record. As the Tenth Circuit
    20
    observed in US Magnesium, LLC v. EPA, 
    690 F.3d 1157
    , 1164
    (10th Cir. 2012), the Article III standing requirements do not
    apply to agency proceedings, and thus there is no reason for the
    facts supporting standing to be a part of the administrative
    record. It is, moreover, the practice in most of the Circuits that
    have considered the matter to accept these materials at any stage
    of the litigation. In US Magnesium itself, for example, the
    Tenth Circuit accepted supplemental materials that were
    attached to a petitioner’s reply brief. 
    Id.
     (Its discussion did not
    squarely address the timing issue, only whether a court could
    properly go beyond the administrative record to ascertain
    standing at all.) The Seventh Circuit has accepted supplemental
    submissions filed after oral argument. Texas Indep. Producers
    and Royalty Owners Ass’n v. EPA, 
    410 F.3d 964
    , 971 (7th Cir.
    2005). And the Ninth Circuit has expressly held that standing
    need not be established in an opening brief in cases like this.
    Nw. Envtl. Def. Ctr. v. Bonneville Power Admin., 
    117 F.3d 1520
    ,
    1528 (9th Cir. 1997).
    Against this, Intervenors marshal two sources of
    contradictory authority. First is the Supreme Court’s statement,
    in a footnote in Lujan itself, that “standing is to be determined at
    the commencement of suit.” 
    504 U.S. at
    570 n.5 (emphasis
    added). This is not on point. That footnote sought only to rebut
    an argument from Justice Stevens’s dissenting opinion that,
    although the agencies whose actions would harm the petitioners
    there were not technically parties to the lawsuit, those agencies
    would not ignore a decision from the Supreme Court
    interpreting the relevant legal provisions, and thus such a
    decision would actually redress the petitioners’ injuries. The
    majority rejected this argument because it depended entirely on
    the contingent fact that the Supreme Court ended up taking the
    case, which could not have been known at the start of suit.
    Hence “commencement of suit” indicates only that standing
    must exist at the beginning of litigation, not that the materials
    21
    establishing standing must be submitted at that time.
    The other authorities cited by Intervenors are cases from
    the D.C. Circuit. See, e.g., Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    292 F.3d 895
    ,
    900 (D.C. Cir. 2002). But that Circuit has a provision of its
    local rules expressly requiring the petitioners in any “cases
    involving direct review . . . of administrative actions” to file
    materials establishing standing along with their opening brief.
    See D.C. Cir. Rule 28(a)(7). The cases cited by Intervenors all
    simply applied this rule, which does not apply to proceedings in
    our court.
    It appears that this is a question of first impression in our
    Circuit. To resolve it, we adopt the view held overtly by the
    Ninth Circuit and implicitly by the Tenth and Seventh: parties
    may submit materials to establish standing at any time in the
    litigation.1 This is especially so here, where the same parties
    have been litigating before us for a decade and a half. It was not
    unreasonable for Regulatory Petitioners to assume that their
    qualification to continue in the case was readily apparent. Cf.
    Del. Dep’t. of Nat’l Res. & Envtl. Control v. EPA, 
    785 F.3d 1
    ,
    8–9 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (permitting petitioners to submit standing
    materials with their reply brief despite the contrary requirement
    of the D.C. Circuit’s local rules when they reasonably believed
    1
    As noted, other courts have gone so far as to accept standing
    materials submitted after oral argument. See Texas Indep.
    Producers and Royalty Owners Ass’n, 
    410 F.3d at 971
    . This
    could be appropriate where the issue of standing is not raised
    until oral argument.      Although we do not set out a
    comprehensive rule for all cases, in general materials to
    establish standing should be submitted promptly once standing
    is called into question.
    22
    that standing was self-evident).
    Turning to the substance of standing, Intervenors argue
    that Regulatory Petitioners’ alleged harm is not sufficiently
    imminent to establish standing because any mergers under the
    new rules would require FCC approval and would be subject to
    judicial review; in effect, Regulatory Petitioners have not
    produced evidence that the rule changes will lead to additional
    consolidation. In addition, Intervenors continue, Regulatory
    Petitioners lack standing because their objections to the rule
    changes pertain to ownership diversity and not to the § 202(h)
    purpose of promoting competition. We find none of these
    arguments persuasive.
    The first two arguments share a common theme: although
    Regulatory Petitioners will be harmed by consolidation within
    the industry (a fact Intervenors do not appear to contest), it is
    speculative that the new rules will actually lead to consolidation.
    The problem is that encouraging consolidation is a primary
    purpose of the new rules. This is made clear throughout the
    Reconsideration Order, see, e.g., 32 F.C.C.R. at 9811, 9836.
    The Government cannot adopt a policy expressly designed to
    have a certain effect and then, when the policy is challenged in
    court by those who would be harmed by that effect, respond that
    the policy’s consequences are entirely speculative. Intervenors
    cite Rainbow/PUSH Coalition v. FCC, 
    330 F.3d 539
    , 542–44
    (D.C. Cir. 2003), but that case only held that petitioners there,
    who sought to assert standing simply as audience-members, had
    to demonstrate that a proposed merger would have some specific
    baleful effect(s) on the viewing audience, i.e., some degradation
    of the programming available to that audience. Here Intervenors
    do not contest that consolidation, if it occurs, will harm the
    Regulatory Petitioners.
    23
    Nor is it material that any future mergers would require
    FCC approval. The point is that, under the new rules, it will
    approve mergers that it would have rejected previously, with the
    rule changes in the Reconsideration Order the key factor causing
    those grants of approval. See Sara Fischer, The local TV
    consolidation race is here, Axios (Aug. 10, 2018), available at
    https://www.axios.com/the-local-tv-consolidation-war-is-here-
    7c65f3fb-eaab-43c4-9a00-81303867dbee.html (“Many local
    broadcasters cite one key reason for their consolidation—
    [t]he FCC's landmark decision last year to roll back old
    regulations that limited the ability of TV companies to own
    properties in the same market.”). Intervenors’ citation to
    Clapper v. Amnesty International, USA, 
    568 U.S. 398
    , 410–11
    (2013), is not to the contrary. It involved a “highly attenuated
    chain of possibilities” that, among other things, would make it
    difficult to discern whether the challenged law was even the
    cause-in-fact of the plaintiffs’ alleged injuries.2 The causal
    2
    Clapper involved a challenge to Section 702 of the Foreign
    Intelligence Surveillance Act, 50 U.S.C. § 1881a, part of the
    2008 FISA Amendments. Pub. L. No. 110-261, 
    122 Stat. 2436
    (2008). The chain of possibilities the Court identified ran as
    follows: “(1) the Government will decide to target the
    communications of non-U.S. persons with whom they
    communicate; (2) in doing so, the Government will choose to
    invoke its authority under [§ 702] rather than utilizing another
    method of surveillance; (3) the Article III judges who serve on
    the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court will conclude that
    the Government's proposed surveillance procedures
    satisfy [§ 702]’s many safeguards and are consistent with the
    Fourth Amendment; (4) the Government will succeed in
    intercepting the communications of respondents’ contacts; and
    24
    chain here is anything but attenuated.
    Intervenors’ third argument fails for multiple reasons.
    First, they identify incorrectly the goals of § 202(h) as limited to
    promoting competition. Instead, as its text makes plain, review
    under that provision is intended to determine whether each of
    the ownership rules serves the public interest, broadly
    conceived, in light of ongoing competitive developments within
    the industry. See Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at
    390–95.
    In addition, there is no requirement that the harm alleged
    be closely tied to a challenger’s legal argument in order to have
    Article III standing.           Intervenors invoke a second
    Rainbow/PUSH Coalition v. FCC case, 
    396 F.3d 1235
    , 1242–43
    (D.C. Cir. 2005), there involving an objection to renewal of a
    radio station’s license because it had allegedly engaged in
    employment discrimination. Audience members, the D.C.
    Circuit held, lacked standing to object because the alleged
    violative conduct at issue had not harmed them at all. This does
    not support the notion that a party may lack standing, even
    though it will suffer a concrete and particularized injury, simply
    because it is the wrong “kind” of injury. That argument sounds
    not in the requirements of Article III but of “prudential
    standing,” a now-discredited doctrine under which courts would
    decline to hear cases within their jurisdiction if the plaintiffs’
    complaint did not fall within the “zone of interests” protected by
    the law they invoked. In Lexmark Int’l, Inc. v. Static Control
    Components, Inc., 
    572 U.S. 118
     (2014), the Supreme Court held
    that this should be understood solely as a matter of statutory
    construction, i.e., of determining whether a given statutory cause
    of action extended to a particular plaintiff. Intervenors do not
    (5) respondents will be parties to the particular communications
    that the Government intercepts.”
    25
    argue, and could not seriously contend, that Regulatory
    Petitioners do not qualify as “aggrieved parties” for purposes of
    the APA’s general cause of action. See 
    5 U.S.C. § 702
    .
    We emerge from the bramble to hold that Regulatory
    Petitioners have standing. Thus we proceed to the merits issues
    before us.
    B. Retention of the Top-Four Rule
    Deregulatory Petitioner ITG argues that the FCC’s
    decision to retain its “top-four” local television rule, prohibiting
    the merger of any two of the top four stations in a given market,
    while rescinding the “eight voices” rule, was arbitrary and
    capricious. This is an issue we dealt with before, in Prometheus
    I, when we upheld the top-four restriction against deregulatory
    challenges. We noted that “we must uphold an agency’s line-
    drawing decision when it is supported by the evidence in the
    record.” Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at
    417 (citing Sinclair
    Broadcast Group, Inc. v. FCC, 
    284 F.3d 148
    , 162 (D.C. Cir.
    2002); AT&T Corp. v. FCC, 
    220 F.3d 607
    , 627 (D.C. Cir.
    2000)). And the Commission had ample record evidence
    supporting its decision to draw the line at four: it saw a
    “cushion” of audience share between the fourth- and fifth-
    ranked stations, reflecting that the top four would be the
    affiliates of the four major national networks (ABC, CBS, NBC,
    and Fox); the same cushion was apparent in national viewership
    figures for the networks themselves; mergers between the third-
    and fourth-largest stations in each of the ten largest markets
    would produce a new largest station; and mergers among top-
    four stations would generally increase the statistical
    consolidation of the local market by a substantial amount. Id. at
    418.
    26
    Now ITG argues that the FCC “failed to recognize that
    the same reasons it found supported repeal of the Eight-Voice
    test also required it to repeal or modify the Top-Four
    Prohibition.” ITG Br. at 20. It first takes issue with the notion
    of a ratings “cushion” between the top-four and other stations, in
    part questioning whether the cushion exists and in part asking
    why it should matter. Id. at 28–29. It further contests the FCC’s
    reliance on its conclusion, from the 2002 review cycle, that
    mergers among top-four stations would generally result in a new
    largest station, noting that the evidence shows that mergers
    between the third- and fourth-largest stations would not result in
    a new largest entity in roughly half of the markets with at least
    four stations. Id. at 29–30. Finally, it argues that the new
    waiver provision cannot excuse that, as it sees things, the rule as
    a whole is not rationally related to the facts. Id. at 31–32.
    We disagree. None of ITG’s arguments meaningfully
    distinguish our holding in Prometheus I. Just as in that case,
    ITG simply takes issue with the way in which the Commission
    chose to draw the lines. The basic logic of the top-four rule, as
    we recognized in 2004, is that while consolidation may offer
    efficiency gains in general, mergers between the largest stations
    in a market pose a unique threat to competition. See
    Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at 416
    . Although there might be other
    more tailored, and more complex, ways to identify those
    problematic mergers, the simplest is to declare, as the
    Commission has done, that mergers between two or more of the
    largest X stations in a market are not permitted. The choice of
    X must be somewhat arbitrary: each market’s contours will be
    slightly different, and no single bright-line rule can capture all
    this complexity. But the television industry does generally
    feature a distinct top-four, corresponding to the four major
    national networks, and four is therefore a sensible number to
    pick. And this is exactly the kind of line-drawing, where any
    line drawn may not be perfect, to which courts are the most
    27
    deferential. See 
    id. at 417
    . ITG has much to say about
    everything this simple rule misses, but that is beside the point.
    The Commission has the discretion to adopt a blunt instrument
    such as the top-four rule if it chooses. Indeed we confronted,
    and rejected, this exact argument—that treating all top-four
    stations the same wrongly ignored the variation in market
    structures—in Prometheus I. 
    Id.
     at 417–18.
    Nor is it improper that the FCC’s justification for this
    rule is the same as it was in the 2002 review cycle.
    Section 202(h) requires only that the Commission think about
    whether its rules remain necessary every four years. It does not
    imply that the policy justifications for each regulation have a
    shelf-life of only four years, after which they expire and must be
    replaced. Nor does § 202(h), or any other authority cited by
    ITG, require that the Commission always base its decisions on
    perfectly up-to-date data. In any event, ITG itself cites more
    recent data presented to the Commission through the
    administrative process, and this information paints a picture
    materially identical to what the Commission saw in 2002.
    In this context, we reaffirm our conclusion from
    Prometheus I that retention of the top-four rule is amply
    supported by record evidence and thus is not arbitrary or
    capricious.3
    3
    Accordingly, we need not address ITG’s argument that the
    newly added waiver provision, which allows the Commission to
    permit a merger that would otherwise be barred by the top-four
    rule if “the reduction in competition is minimal and is
    outweighed by public interest benefits,” Reconsideration Order
    ¶ 82, cannot save an otherwise irrational rule.
    28
    C. “Comparable Markets” Definition
    Diversity Petitioners challenge the Incubator Order’s
    definition of comparable markets for radio stations, arguing that
    it was not properly noticed and in any event was arbitrary and
    capricious.
    Their argument devolves to this. The basic concept of
    the incubator program uses a waiver of the rules governing local
    radio ownership as a reward to induce participation by
    established broadcasters. The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking
    (“NPRM”) sought comment on the following questions about
    these reward waivers: “How should the Commission structure
    the waiver program? For example, should the waiver be limited
    to the market in which the incubating activity is occurring?
    Alternatively, should waiver be permissible in any similarly
    sized market? How would the Commission determine which
    markets are similar in size?” Reconsideration Order ¶ 137.
    Diversity Petitioners take this to indicate only that the
    Commission was considering two possibilities: either that the
    waiver could only be used in the same market where the
    incubating activity occurred or that it could be used in other
    markets of similar population. They contend that “size” in this
    context is most naturally read as referring to population, or some
    other indicator of market size (such as audience or listenership
    numbers), as opposed to the number of radio stations in the
    market. The two responsive comments on this issue, they
    contend, seem to have reflected this assumption. See Diversity
    Petitioners’ Br. at 16–17.
    Instead, as noted, the Incubator Order adopted a system
    of reward waivers that can be used in any “comparable” market,
    meaning not a market of similar population but one with a
    29
    similar number of radio stations. This proposal was first
    described in detail in the draft of the Incubator Order made
    available before the final order was promulgated. In response,
    Diversity Petitioners made several ex parte communications
    with the Commission expressing their concern over this
    definition of “comparable” markets. Id. at 21–22. Their letters
    expressed concern that the proposed rule would allow a
    broadcaster to incubate in a small rural market and then use its
    reward waiver in a much larger market, such as New York City,
    thus getting an outsized return for its investment. Thus
    Diversity Petitioners suggested that the rule should disallow
    using a waiver in another top-tier “comparable” market that is
    not within five spots of the incubating market in the Nielsen
    population-based rankings, but the Commission declined to
    adopt this proposal. See Incubator Order ¶ 68.
    Diversity Petitioners argue that this was not adequate
    notice. We have addressed similar claims in both Prometheus I,
    
    373 F.3d at
    411–412, and Prometheus II, 
    652 F.3d at
    449–50.
    Essentially, “the adequacy of the notice must be tested by
    determining whether it would fairly apprise interested persons of
    the ‘subjects and issues’ before the agency.” Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at 411
     (quoting Am. Iron & Steel Inst. v. EPA, 
    568 F.3d 284
    , 293 (3d Cir. 1977)). The strongest fact supporting
    Diversity Petitioners’ claim is the swift response by
    commenters expressing surprise once the eventual definition of
    comparable markets was made public. Courts will consider the
    behavior of commenters in assessing whether notice was
    adequate. See, e.g., Sprint Corp. v. FCC, 
    315 F.3d 369
    , 376
    (D.C. Cir. 2003).
    But parsing the language of the Notice of
    Proposed Rulemaking itself suffices to show that it did provide
    adequate notice. Specifically, after asking whether the waiver
    30
    should be applicable in any similarly sized market, the NPRM
    asked how the Commission would determine which markets are
    similarly sized. This strongly suggests that the Commission was
    considering a range of different ways to measure market size,
    and it undercuts Diversity Petitioners’ assertion that the word
    “size” could only be read to mean population. See Diversity
    Petitioners’ Br. at 16 (“The reference to ‘size’ in the NPRM is
    generally understood in the broadcast industry to mean markets
    that have similar populations.”).
    Turning to the substance of the comparable markets
    definition, Diversity Petitioners assert that the FCC’s definition
    will create a perverse incentive for established broadcasters to
    incubate in markets with low populations but many radio
    stations (using the example of Wilkes-Barre, Pennsylvania) and
    then use their waivers in “comparable” markets with much
    greater populations (e.g., New York City). The Incubator Order
    responded to this concern by noting that some markets with
    similar populations have vastly different numbers of stations,
    and stated that “[i]n crafting our standard, we focused primarily
    on preventing the potential for ownership consolidation in a
    market with fewer stations and independent owners than the
    market in which the incubation relationship added a new
    entrant.” Incubator Order ¶ 68. It expected that incubating
    entities will not necessarily use their waivers only in the largest
    markets, but rather wherever they face ownership restrictions
    under the FCC’s rules. 
    Id.
     And it noted that some incubating
    entities might not have relevant ownership interests in other
    markets of similar population size, such that they would have no
    flexibility under Diversity Petitioners’ proposed rules. 
    Id.
    Diversity Petitioners posit this as an inadequate response,
    but we disagree. They are correct that the Commission did not
    rebut the suggestion that waivers might be used in markets with
    31
    much higher populations than the ones where incubation is
    occurring. It explained instead why it did not think this prospect
    overly frightening. Diversity Petitioners suggest that this
    dynamic could reduce the positive influence of the incubator
    program on ownership diversity, as (they claim) smaller markets
    like Wilkes-Barre are less diverse. This is not supported by the
    record: as Intervenors note, many smaller markets are quite
    racially diverse, see Intervenors’ Br. at 50, and Diversity
    Petitioners’ rejoinder that these markets contain fewer total
    people of color than big cities like New York or Los Angeles,
    Diversity Petitioners’ Reply Br. at 17 n.7, is essentially
    tautological. And we cannot say that the Commission’s focus
    on the potential anti-competitive effects of the waiver program
    is unreasonable, for the waivers relate specifically to rules
    designed to promote competition.
    We therefore hold that the definition of “comparable
    markets” in the Incubator Order was adequately noticed and is
    not arbitrary and capricious.
    D. Effect of Rule Changes on Ownership Diversity
    Citizen Petitioners argue that the Commission did not
    adequately consider the effect its new rules would have on
    ownership of broadcast media by women and racial minorities.
    We agree. In Prometheus III we stated that the ongoing attempt
    to bring the 2010 and 2014 review cycles to a close must
    “include a determination about the effect of the rules on
    minority and female ownership.” 824 F.3d at 54 n.13 (internal
    quotation marks omitted). Both the 2016 Report & Order and
    the Reconsideration Order ostensibly included such a
    determination, and each concluded that the broadcast ownership
    rules have minimal effect on female and minority ownership.
    32
    But these conclusions were not adequately supported by the
    record, and thus they were arbitrary and capricious.
    The 2016 Report & Order retained all of the existing
    ownership rules, but it also addressed a proposal to tighten the
    local television and radio ownership rules as a means of
    promoting ownership diversity. The Commission rejected this
    proposal because it found no evidence that reducing
    consolidation would have that effect based on the following
    evidence. The National Telecommunications and Information
    Administration (“NTIA”) had collected data regarding the
    number of minority-owned stations in the late 1990s. About a
    decade later, the FCC itself began collecting this data through a
    survey using what is called “Form 323.” See Prometheus III,
    824 F.3d at 44 (discussing the use of Form 323 to gather data
    about minority ownership). It did so with the express purpose of
    generating better data about ways to increase ownership by
    women and minorities. Id.
    What the 2016 Report & Order did was to compare the
    NTIA data from the late 1990s, around the time that the local
    ownership rules were first relaxed, with the subsequent Form
    323 data. It saw the same pattern for television and for radio: an
    initial decrease in minority-owned stations after the rules
    became more flexible to permit more consolidation, followed by
    a long-term increase. The NTIA showed 312 minority-owned
    radio stations in 1995, just before the local radio rule was
    relaxed, followed by 284 in 1996–97, 305 in 1998, and 426 in
    1999–2000. Form 323 data, meanwhile, showed 644 such
    stations in 2009, 756 in 2011, and 768 in 2013. See 2016 Report
    & Order ¶ 126–28. Turning to television, NTIA data showed 32
    minority-owned stations in 1998—just before the local
    television rule was relaxed—and 23 stations in 1999–2000,
    while Form 323 data showed 60 stations in 2009, 70 in 2011,
    33
    and 83 in 2013. Id. ¶ 77.
    Because the trendlines did not show that relaxing these
    rules had played a major role in restricting ownership diversity,
    the Commission thought that reversing the process (that is,
    tightening local radio and television ownership rules) would also
    be unlikely to have a major effect. Id. ¶ 126. At the same time
    it did not think that further loosening the rules would be an
    effective means of promoting diversity, as the data did not
    suggest that the increase from the late 1990s through the 2009–
    13 period had been caused by the relaxed rules. See id. ¶ 78,
    128. The Order stated that the Commission remained “mindful
    of the potential impact of consolidation . . . on ownership
    opportunities for . . . minority- and women-owned businesses,
    and we will continue to consider the implications in the context
    of future quadrennial reviews.” Id. ¶ 128. The 2016 Report &
    Order also cited this same data to suggest that its modest
    revisions to the cross-ownership rules would not be likely to
    have a major influence on ownership diversity. Id. ¶ 196 n.586.
    The Reconsideration Order, by contrast, did make major
    changes to the ownership rules, and it invoked the same
    evidence as the 2016 Report & Order to conclude that this
    would not meaningfully affect ownership diversity. Thus it
    stated, as to the cross-ownership rules, that “record evidence
    demonstrates that previous relaxations of other ownership rules
    have not resulted in an overall decline in minority and female
    ownership of broadcast stations, and we see no evidence to
    suggest that eliminating the [Newspaper/Broadcast Cross-
    Ownership] Rule will produce a different result and precipitate
    such a decline.” Reconsideration Order, ¶ 46. As to the local
    television rule, the Order concluded that “the record does not
    support a causal connection between modifications to the Local
    Television Ownership Rule and minority and female ownership
    34
    levels;” thus the modifications “are not likely to harm minority
    and female ownership.” Id. ¶ 83.
    Problems abound with the FCC’s analysis. Most glaring
    is that, although we instructed it to consider the effect of any
    rule changes on female as well as minority ownership, the
    Commission cited no evidence whatsoever regarding gender
    diversity. It does not contest this. See Respondent’s Br. at 40
    n.14. Instead it notes that “no data on female ownership was
    available” and argues that it “reasonably relied on the data that
    was available and was not required to fund new studies.” Id.
    Elsewhere, however, the Commission purports to have complied
    with our instructions to consider both racial and gender
    diversity, repeatedly framing its conclusion in terms that
    encompass both areas. See, e.g., id. at 33–36. The trouble is
    that any ostensible conclusion as to female ownership was not
    based on any record evidence we can discern. Courts will find
    agency action arbitrary and capricious where the agency
    “entirely fail[s] to consider an important aspect of the problem,”
    State Farm, 
    463 U.S. at 43
    , and that is effectively what
    happened here. The only “consideration” the FCC gave to the
    question of how its rules would affect female ownership was the
    conclusion there would be no effect. That was not sufficient,
    and this alone is enough to justify remand.
    Even just focusing on the evidence with regard to
    ownership by racial minorities, however, the FCC’s analysis is
    so insubstantial that it would receive a failing grade in any
    introductory statistics class. One basic problem is the way the
    Commission treats the NTIA and Form 323 data as comparable,
    even though these two data sets were created using entirely
    different methodologies. For example, we do not know how
    many minority-owned stations the Form 323 survey would have
    found in 1999, or how many the NTIA’s methods would have
    35
    found in 2009. Indeed the NTIA data is known to be
    substantially incomplete, and the large increase in minority-
    owned radio stations it showed between 1998 and 1999–2000 is
    thought to have been caused by largely improved methodology
    rather than an actual increase in the number of minority-owned
    stations. 2016 Report & Order ¶ 126. Attempting to draw a
    trendline between the NTIA data and the Form 323 data is
    plainly an exercise in comparing apples to oranges, and the
    Commission does not seem to have recognized that problem or
    taken any effort to fix it.
    Even if we could treat the use of these two data sets as
    reliable, the FCC’s statistical conclusions are woefully
    simplistic. They compare only the absolute number of minority-
    owned stations at different times, and make no effort to control
    for possible confounding variables. The simplest of these would
    be the total number of stations in existence. We do not know,
    for example, whether the percentage of stations that are
    minority-owned went up or down from 1999 to 2009.
    And even if we only look at the total number of minority-
    owned stations, the FCC did not actually make any estimate of
    the effect of deregulation in the 1990s. Instead it noted only
    that, whatever this effect was, deregulation was not enough to
    prevent an overall increase during the following decade. The
    Commission made no attempt to assess the counterfactual
    scenario: how many minority-owned stations there would have
    been in 2009 had there been no deregulation.
    An analogy helps illustrate this point: if an economy that
    has been growing at an annual 2% rate suffers a serious
    depression in which it shrinks by 10%, and then resumes
    growing at the same 2% rate, a decade later it will likely be
    36
    bigger than it was on the eve of the depression. But this does
    not mean that the depression had no effect on the size of the
    economy. Nothing in the FCC’s analysis rules out, or even
    addresses, the possibility that the 1990s deregulation caused
    such a one-time “depression” of minority ownership even if it
    did not reverse the long-term increase in minority-owned
    stations.
    The Commission does not really contest any of these
    deficiencies in its data or its analysis. Instead it argues that they
    are irrelevant. It notes, first of all, that ownership diversity is
    just one of many competing policy goals it must balance when
    adjusting its regulations. Respondent’s Br. at 32–33. Thus, the
    Reconsideration Order noted that the Commission should not
    retain a rule that unduly burdened the competitive practices of
    all broadcasters “based on the unsubstantiated hope that these
    restrictions will promote minority and female ownership.”
    Reconsideration Order ¶ 65. It cites to broad support for
    eliminating the newspaper/broadcast cross-ownership rules,
    including from minority media owners, as evidence that doing
    so would not have an adverse effect on minority ownership.
    Respondent’s Br. at 34. And it asserts that, while the data used
    was not perfect, it was the only evidence available as to the
    effects of earlier rounds of deregulation on ownership diversity.
    
    Id. at 40
    . The Commission solicited evidence on this issue
    during the notice-and-comment period, and it did not receive
    any information of higher quality than the NTIA/Form 323 data.
    Thus it argues it had no affirmative burden to produce additional
    evidence or to fund new studies itself. 
    Id.
     at 47 (citing Stilwell
    v. Office of Thrift Supervision, 
    569 F.3d 514
    , 519 (D.C. Cir.
    2009)).
    We are not persuaded. It is true that “[t]he APA imposes
    no general obligation on agencies to produce empirical
    37
    evidence,” only to “justify its rule with a reasoned explanation.”
    Stilwell, 
    569 F.3d at 519
    . But in this case the reasoned
    explanation given by the Commission rested on faulty and
    insubstantial data. In Stilwell the agency had proceeded based
    on its “long experience” supervising the regulated industry and
    had support from the commenters. 
    Id.
     Here, the Commission
    has not relied on its general expertise, and, outside of the
    modifications to the newspaper/broadcast cross-ownership rule,
    it does not rely on support from commenters. It has not offered
    any theoretical models or analysis of what the likely effect of
    consolidation on ownership diversity would be. Instead it has
    confined its reasoning to an insubstantial statistical analysis of
    unreliable data—and, again, has not offered even that much as
    to the effect of its rules on female ownership.
    Finally, it is true that promoting ownership diversity is
    but one of the policy goals the FCC must consider. But this only
    highlights that it is something the Commission must consider. It
    is, as State Farm says, “an important aspect of the problem.”
    
    463 U.S. at 43
    . The Commission might well be within its rights
    to adopt a new deregulatory framework (even if the rule changes
    would have some adverse effect on ownership diversity) if it
    gave a meaningful evaluation of that effect and then explained
    why it believed the trade-off was justified for other policy
    reasons. But it has not done so. Instead it has proceeded on the
    basis that consolidation will not harm ownership diversity. This
    may be so; perhaps a more sophisticated analysis would
    strengthen, not weaken, the FCC’s position. But based on the
    evidence and reasoning the Commission has given us, we simply
    cannot say one way or the other. This violated the
    Commission’s obligations under the APA and our remand
    instructions, and we “may not supply a reasoned basis for the
    agency’s action that the agency itself has not given.” 
    Id.
     (citing
    SEC v. Chenery Corp., 
    332 U.S. 194
    , 196 (1947).
    38
    Accordingly, we vacate the Reconsideration Order and
    the Incubator Order in their entirety, as well as the “eligible
    entity” definition from the 2016 Report & Order. On remand
    the Commission must ascertain on record evidence the likely
    effect of any rule changes it proposes and whatever “eligible
    entity” definition it adopts on ownership by women and
    minorities, whether through new empirical research or an in-
    depth theoretical analysis. If it finds that a proposed rule change
    would likely have an adverse effect on ownership diversity but
    nonetheless believes that rule in the public interest all things
    considered, it must say so and explain its reasoning. If it finds
    that its proposed definition for eligible entities will not
    meaningfully advance ownership diversity, it must explain why
    it could not adopt an alternate definition that would do so. Once
    again we do not prejudge the outcome of any of this, but the
    Commission must provide a substantial basis and justification
    for its actions whatever it ultimately decides.
    E. Delay in Adopting Procurement Rules
    Finally, Diversity Petitioners argue that the Commission
    has unreasonably delayed action on their proposal to extend the
    cable procurement rules to broadcast media. These rules require
    cable companies to encourage minority- and female-owned
    businesses to do business with them. See 
    47 C.F.R. § 76.75
    (e).
    A proposal to apply similar rules to broadcast media companies
    was one of the proposals we instructed the Commission to
    consider on remand all the way back in Prometheus I. See 
    373 F.3d at
    421 n.59. In Prometheus III, the same Diversity
    Petitioners argued the FCC had unlawfully refused to address
    these proposals. We declined to pass on this challenge, noting
    that the Chairman of the FCC had committed to addressing these
    proposals in what eventually became the 2016 Report & Order,
    and thus the challenge was premature. See 824 F.3d at 50 n.11.
    39
    At the same time we “note[d] our expectation that the
    Commission will meet its proffered deadline.” The 2016 Report
    & Order ultimately found that there was “merit in exploring”
    whether to adopt this proposal, and stated that it would “evaluate
    the feasibility” of doing so. 2016 Report & Order ¶ 330. [J.A.
    at 169] The Notice of Proposed Rulemaking for the 2018 cycle
    sought comment on a number of aspects of this proposal,
    including its constitutionality.        See 2018 Quadrennial
    Regulatory Review—Review of the Commission’s Broadcast
    Ownership Rules and Other Rules Adopted Pursuant to Section
    202 of the Telecommunications Act of 1996, Notice of Proposed
    Rulemaking, 84 F.R. 6741, 6752 (Feb. 28, 2019)
    As set out at length in Prometheus III, when reviewing a
    claim of unreasonable agency delay we evaluate four factors:
    first, the length of time since the agency came under a duty to
    act; second, the context of the statute authorizing the agency’s
    action; third, the consequences of the agency’s delay; and,
    finally, any claim of administrative error, inconvenience, or
    practical difficulty carrying out the obligation, especially in light
    of limited resources. See 824 F.3d at 39–40 (quoting Oil, Chem.
    & Atomic Workers Union, 
    145 F.3d at 123
    ).
    The Commission argues it has not unreasonably delayed
    action because the record as of the 2016 Report & Order did not
    support adopting the proposal—largely because the commenters
    did not offer any substantial supporting materials for it. See
    Respondent’s Br. at 89. We agree. This is not like the eligible
    entity issue in Prometheus III, where the FCC had failed to act
    for well over a decade. At most, the agency’s failure to act
    began with the 2016 Report & Order three years ago. And the
    consequence of the Commission’s failure to act at that time was
    evidently to keep the proposal alive, rather than rejecting it
    outright for lack of support. Given all of this, not to mention
    40
    that the NPRM for the 2018 cycle has sought further comment
    on this proposal, we do not at this time find unreasonable delay
    by the Commission.
    That being said, we do anticipate that the Commission
    will take final action on this proposal one way or another when
    it resolves the 2018 review cycle, at which time its decision will
    be subject to judicial review. If it does not do so, we may reach
    a different conclusion as to the reasonableness of that additional
    delay.
    F. Conclusion
    Citizens and Diversity Petitioners have standing to press
    their claims. On the merits, we hold that the FCC’s retention of
    the “top-four” prong of its local television ownership rule was
    not arbitrary and capricious. We also hold that the Incubator
    Order’s definition of “comparable markets” was adequately
    noticed and was not arbitrary and capricious. And we decline to
    hold that the FCC has unreasonably delayed action on the
    proposal to adopt procurement rules for the broadcasting
    industry. We do conclude, however, that the Commission has
    not shown yet that it adequately considered the effect its actions
    since Prometheus III will have on diversity in broadcast media
    ownership.        We therefore vacate and remand the
    Reconsideration and Incubator Orders in their entirety, as well
    as the “eligible entity” definition from the 2016 Report & Order.
    Citizen Petitioners ask us to appoint a mediator or master
    to “ensure timely compliance” with our decision. Citizen
    Petitioners’ Br. at 43. Courts will sometimes appoint a special
    master to oversee compliance with remedial decrees, but these
    41
    cases typically involve institutions such as prisons where the
    Court could not otherwise easily ascertain whether the defendant
    is complying, and the master’s job is limited only to observing
    and reporting. See, e.g., Ruiz v. Estelle, 
    679 F.2d 1115
     (5th Cir.
    1982), amended in part and vacated in part on other grounds,
    
    688 F.2d 266
     (5th Cir. 1982) (per curiam). There is no need for
    such an observational special master here, where the
    Commission’s actions on remand will be published in the
    Federal Register and readily available for subsequent judicial
    review. Moreover, we would decline in any event to appoint a
    special master with any powers beyond the simply
    observational, as doing so would raise grave constitutional
    concerns, see e.g. Cobell v. Norton, 
    334 F.3d 1128
    , 1141–42
    (D.C. Cir. 2003), and we do not doubt the Commission’s good
    faith in its efforts to comply with our requests.
    Because yet further litigation is, at this point, sadly
    foreseeable, this panel again retains jurisdiction over the
    remanded issues.
    42
    Prometheus Radio Project et al. v. Federal Communications
    Commission, Nos. 17-1107, 17-1109, 17-1110, 17-1111, 18-
    1092, 18-1669, 18-1670, 18-1671, 18-2943 & 18-3335,
    SCIRICA, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and dissenting in
    part
    The Telecommunications Act of 1996 mandates that the
    Federal Communications Commission (FCC) regularly review
    its broadcast media ownership rules to ensure they remain in
    step with the demands of a rapidly evolving marketplace. Yet
    some of these rules date back to the 1990s and early 2000s, and
    one all the way to 1975, before the Internet revolutionized
    American media consumption. Americans today increasingly
    rely on online sources for local news and information. Studies
    in the record reinforce what most people old enough to recall
    the days before WiFi and iPads understand instinctively: the
    explosion of Internet sources has accompanied the decline of
    reliance on traditional media. The realities of operating a viable
    broadcasting enterprise today look little like they did when the
    FCC enacted the current ownership rules. Despite all of this,
    the FCC’s broadcast ownership rules remained largely static
    for fifteen years.
    The FCC’s most recent review of its ownership rules
    culminated in an order that accounted for these changes. The
    FCC evaluated the current market dynamics, concluded the
    existing rules built for a pre-Internet marketplace no longer
    serve the public interest, and repealed or modified the rules
    accordingly. The FCC weighed the rules’ effects on
    competition, localism, and diversity to determine what changes
    would advance the public interest.
    1
    I join several parts of my colleagues’ decision,
    including their rejection of the challenges to the incubator
    program’s “comparable markets” definition and the
    Reconsideration Order’s retention of a modified “top-four”
    restriction in the Local TV Rule. But I do not share their
    conclusion that the Reconsideration Order and Incubator
    Order are arbitrary and capricious. In my view, the FCC
    balanced competing policy goals and reasonably predicted the
    regulatory changes dictated by the broadcast markets’
    competitive dynamics will be unlikely to harm ownership
    diversity. I would not delay the FCC’s actions. I would allow
    the rules to take effect and direct the FCC to evaluate their
    effects on women- and minority-broadcast ownership in its
    2018 quadrennial review.
    I.
    The parties are intimately familiar with the FCC’s
    quadrennial review of the broadcast ownership rules. See
    Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC, 
    824 F.3d 33
     (3d Cir. 2016)
    (Prometheus III); Prometheus Radio Project v. FCC, 
    652 F.3d 431
     (3d Cir. 2011) (Prometheus II); Prometheus Radio Project
    v. FCC, 
    373 F.3d 372
     (3d Cir. 2004) (Prometheus I). I
    summarize the relevant history and principles that guide this
    process before briefly reviewing the FCC’s most recent action.
    A.
    The orders at issue stem from the FCC’s review of its
    broadcast ownership rules. Through these rules the FCC
    advances its statutory mandate to regulate broadcast media as
    “public convenience, interest, or necessity requires.” 
    47 U.S.C. § 303
    ; see Nat’l Broad. Co. v. United States, 
    319 U.S. 190
    , 214
    2
    (1943). Early versions of the ownership rules cabined common
    ownership within and across broadcast media to promote the
    public interest. See FCC v. Nat’l Citizens Comm. for Broad.,
    
    436 U.S. 775
    , 780 (1978) (NCCB). The FCC adopted broadcast
    ownership rules with the objective to “promot[e] competition
    among the mass media” and to “maximiz[e] diversification of
    services sources and viewpoints.” 
    Id. at 784
     (internal quotation
    marks and citation omitted). These in turn would benefit the
    public through higher quality programming and broader
    options. The FCC determines the appropriate amount of
    common ownership by weighing the harms of excessive
    concentration—diminished programming diversity, stifled
    competition, and the like—against the competitive realities of
    running viable broadcast enterprises.
    A need for regulatory reform became palpable as the
    Internet emerged, transforming how Americans receive news
    and entertainment. Rapid technological change had left the
    framework regulating media ownership ill-suited to the
    marketplace’s needs. The public interest analysis at the heart
    of the FCC’s ownership rules is as dynamic as the media
    landscape. A static set of ownership regulations could not serve
    the public interest for all time. See Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at 437
     (Scirica, C.J., dissenting in part and concurring in part).
    With continued change all but certain, Congress
    retooled the approach to regulating affected markets. It enacted
    the Telecommunications Act of 1996, Pub. L. No. 104-104,
    
    110 Stat. 56
    , which directs the FCC to review the broadcast
    ownership rules periodically. The relevant provision, Section
    202(h), instructs:
    The Commission shall review . . . all of its
    3
    ownership rules [quadrennially] as part of its
    regulatory reform review . . . and shall determine
    whether any of [its] rules are necessary in the
    public interest as the result of competition. The
    Commission shall repeal or modify any
    regulation it determines to be no longer in the
    public interest.
    Telecommunications Act of 1996, § 202(h), as amended by
    Pub. L. No. 108-199, § 629, 
    118 Stat. 3
    , 99–100 (2004).
    “[C]ompetition, localism, and diversity” are the values that
    guide the FCC’s “public interest” analysis under Section
    202(h). Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at 400
    ; see also 
    id. at 446
    (Scirica, C.J., dissenting in part and concurring in part). The
    FCC considers five types of diversity: viewpoint, outlet,
    program, source, and minority and women ownership. See 
    id. at 446
     (Scirica, C.J. dissenting in part and concurring in part)
    (summarizing the FCC’s analysis in its 2002 biennial review
    order).
    Embodied in Section 202(h) is the imperative that the
    broadcast ownership rules stay in sync with the media
    marketplace. See 
    id. at 391
    . What is in the “public interest”
    changes over time as the marketplace evolves, so the FCC must
    reassess competitive conditions to set appropriate regulations.
    The provision’s language and the accompanying legislative
    history reveal a belief that “opening all telecommunications
    markets to competition” will best suit a marketplace comprised
    of diverse media platforms and shaped by technological
    advancement. See H.R. Rep. No. 104-458, at 113 (1996) (Conf.
    Rep.). Section 202(h) directs the FCC to assess the harms of
    consolidation and abandon restrictions that deprive the public
    of competitive benefits associated with some levels of common
    4
    ownership. 1
    0F
    B.
    The FCC concluded its 2010/14 quadrennial review by
    largely retaining the rules restricting common ownership. See
    Second Report & Order, 2014 Quadrennial Regulatory
    Review, 31 FCC Rcd. 9864 (2016) (2016 Report & Order). The
    rules, according to the FCC, “promote[d] competition and a
    diversity of viewpoints in local markets, thereby enriching
    local communities through the promotion of distinct and
    antagonistic voices.” Id. ¶ 3.
    On petitions for reconsideration, the FCC repealed or
    loosened most of these ownership rules. See Order on
    Reconsideration and Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 32 FCC
    Rcd. 9802 (2017) (Reconsideration Order). The thrust of the
    FCC’s analysis is that technological innovation and
    fundamental changes to the media marketplace have eroded
    many of the assumptions underlying the ownership rules. See,
    e.g., id. ¶¶ 1, 19, 22, 43, 60, 71–73. The rules have thus ceased
    serving the public interest. The Internet boom has ushered in
    rivals that enjoy competitive advantages vis-à-vis broadcasters.
    The ownership rules impede broadcasters’ ability to engage in
    procompetitive transactions without offering compensating
    benefits to the public.
    The FCC’s repeal of the Newspaper/Broadcast Cross-
    Ownership (NBCO) Rule illustrates the Reconsideration
    Order’s public interest balancing. The NBCO Rule barred
    1
    Although framed in deregulatory terms, we have
    understood the provision to allow modifications making the
    rules “more or less stringent.” Prometheus I, 372 F.3d at 395.
    5
    combinations between broadcast stations and local newspapers
    to preserve “strong local voices.” Id. ¶ 9. When the rule was
    adopted in 1975, daily print newspapers constituted a
    predominant voice in local news. The rule thus promoted
    viewpoint diversity and localism by ensuring independent
    sources of local content. But the FCC’s careful study and
    informed judgment show this reasoning no longer holds.
    Traditional media compete with “digital-only news outlets
    with no print or broadcast affiliation.” Id. ¶ 19. The FCC
    determined that the burst of Internet sources means local
    newspapers’ independence from broadcast is no longer
    essential to promote viewpoint diversity. See id. ¶¶ 18–22. The
    flipside of this growth is the dwindling significance of print
    newspapers. Repealing the NBCO Rule, the FCC determined,
    lifts a barrier to combinations that may enhance localism. See
    id. ¶ 26. Transactions between broadcasters and local
    newspapers could enable “collaboration and cost-sharing” that
    improve program quality. Id. ¶ 27. These efficiencies could
    “attract new investment in order to preserve and expand” local
    programming. Id. ¶ 42. The FCC predicted repeal of the NBCO
    Rule “is unlikely to have a significant effect on minority and
    female ownership in” broadcast markets in part because
    broadcasters would be better positioned to acquire newspapers
    than the reverse. Id. ¶ 46. So ownership diversity, like
    competition and localism, did not justify keeping the rule. See
    id. ¶ 48.
    While the FCC’s public interest analysis balances
    competition, localism, and diversity, the last consideration has
    attracted most of the attention in this litigation. Neither the
    2016 Report & Order nor Reconsideration Order found
    evidence that showed keeping or changing the rules would
    affect ownership diversity. “[E]mpirical study of the
    6
    relationship between cross-ownership restrictions” and
    ownership diversity is complicated by “obstacles that make
    such study impractical and unreliable,” the FCC observed, yet
    it invited comment on both study design and the likely
    connection. Quadrennial Regulatory Review—Review of The
    Commission’s Broadcast Ownership Rules and Other Rules
    Adopted Pursuant to Section 202 of the Telecommunications
    Act of 1996, et al., Further Notice of Proposed Rulemaking and
    Report and Order, 29 FCC Rcd. 4371 ¶ 198 n.595 (2014)
    (2014 FNPRM). The 2016 Report & Order rejected arguments
    that making the rules more restrictive “will promote increased
    opportunities for minority and female ownership” because the
    record lacked evidence supporting such a causal connection. ¶
    77 (Local TV Rule); see id. ¶ 127 (Local Radio Rule). The
    Reconsideration Order considered the consequences of
    relaxing the rules on ownership diversity and determined the
    record did not support arguments that minority and women
    broadcasters would be harmed by the changes. See, e.g., ¶ 15
    (NBCO Rule) (“[W]e find that eliminating the rule will have
    no material effect on minority and female broadcast
    ownership.”). No commenter introduced evidence that
    contradicted the FCC’s prediction that changing the rules
    would unlikely affect ownership diversity. The
    Reconsideration Order announced the FCC’s intention to
    pursue an incubator program, to facilitate entry and bolster
    ownership diversity. See ¶¶ 121–25.
    II.
    Citizen Petitioners contend the FCC’s orders are
    arbitrary and capricious because they do not adequately
    analyze the new rules’ likely effects on minority and women
    7
    broadcast ownership. The APA’s “arbitrary and capricious”
    standard together with Section 202(h) guide our review.
    We must “hold unlawful and set aside agency action,
    findings, and conclusions” that are “arbitrary [or] capricious.”
    
    5 U.S.C. § 706
    (2)(A). Under this deferential review, we uphold
    the FCC’s decision provided it “examine[d] the relevant data
    and articulate[d] a satisfactory explanation for its action
    including a ‘rational connection between the facts found and
    the choice made.’” Motor Vehicles Mfrs. Ass’n v. State Farm
    Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 43 (1983) (quoting
    Burlington Truck Lines v. United States, 
    371 U.S. 156
    , 168
    (1962)). Where, as here, the FCC makes predictions about the
    likely consequences of its decisions, “complete factual support
    in the record for [its] judgment or prediction is not possible or
    required.” NCCB, 
    436 U.S. at 814
    ; Rural Cellular Ass’n v.
    FCC, 
    588 F.3d 1095
    , 1105 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (“Where . . . the
    FCC must make predictive judgments about the effects of [its
    regulations], certainty is impossible.”). These predictions are
    “less amenable to rigid proof”; they “are more in the nature of
    policy decisions entitled to substantial deference.” NAACP v.
    FCC, 
    682 F.2d 993
    , 1001 (D.C. Cir. 1982), rev’d on other
    grounds, FCC v. Fox Telev. Stations, Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    (2009).
    As this Court has emphasized and notes again here,
    Section 202(h) “also affects our standard of review.”
    Prometheus III, 824 F.3d at 40; see Maj. Op. 18. To the extent
    the meaning of Section 202(h) is disputed, the question would
    ordinarily “implicat[e] an agency’s construction of the statute
    which it administers,” thus triggering “the principles of
    deference described in” Chevron U.S.A. Inc. v. Natural
    Resources Defense Council, Inc., 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 842 (1984).
    8
    INS v. Aguirre-Aguirre, 
    526 U.S. 415
    , 424 (1999); see also
    Sinclair Broad. Grp. v. FCC, 
    284 F.3d 148
    , 165 (D.C. Cir.
    2004) (deferring to FCC’s reasonable interpretation of another
    provision of the Telecommunications Act of 1996 under
    Chevron).
    III.
    My colleagues find, “based on the evidence and
    reasoning the Commission has given us,” it has not satisfied its
    obligation to show changes in the ownership rules “will not
    harm ownership diversity.” Maj. Op. 39. But the FCC enjoys a
    measure of deference when it balances policy objectives based
    on predictions of the consequences of its rules. This key
    disagreement leads me to depart from my colleagues in three
    respects. First, because the FCC’s consideration of the
    interplay between its ownership rules and ownership diversity
    satisfies the APA and Section 202(h), I would deny the
    challenges to the Reconsideration Order and allow the new
    rules to take effect. Second, I believe the substance of the
    FCC’s eligible entity definition and the process by which it was
    adopted accords with the APA. Third, I do not believe the FCC
    acted arbitrarily or capriciously when it adopted the Incubator
    Order. Accordingly, I would deny the petitions and allow the
    FCC’s orders to take effect.
    A.
    Citizen Petitioners leave untouched the FCC’s core
    determination that the ownership rules have ceased to serve the
    “public interest.” The Reconsideration Order chronicles
    significant changes throughout media markets and explains
    why maintaining the rules no longer serves that public interest
    9
    goal. No party identifies any reason to question the FCC’s key
    competitive findings and judgments. Citizen Petitioners argue
    instead that all the rule changes that make up the
    Reconsideration Order should be vacated because the FCC did
    not adequately consider the new rules’ likely effects on
    women- and minority-broadcast ownership. But neither
    Section 202(h) nor the APA requires the FCC to quantify the
    future effects of its new rules as a prerequisite to regulatory
    action. Congress prescribed an iterative process; the FCC must
    take a fresh look at its rules every four years. This process
    assumes the FCC can gain experience with its policies so it
    may assess how its rules function in the marketplace. The FCC
    has sufficiently explained its decision and deserves an
    opportunity to implement its policies.
    Citizen Petitioners overlook “that the Commission’s
    judgment regarding how the public interest is best served is
    entitled to substantial judicial deference.” FCC v. WNCN
    Listeners Guild, 
    450 U.S. 582
    , 596 (1981). The FCC’s Section
    202(h) review typifies agency policymaking entitled to
    deference, subject to the APA. Section 202(h) directs the FCC
    to balance competing goals—competition, localism, and
    diversity—to guarantee that its “regulatory framework [keeps]
    pace with the competitive changes in the marketplace.”
    Prometheus I, 
    373 F.3d at 391
    . The FCC enjoys a
    “considerable amount of discretion” when it weighs objectives
    to reach policy decisions. Rural Cellular, 
    588 F.3d 1095
    , 1103
    (D.C. Cir. 2009) (internal quotation marks and citation
    omitted). The record confirms the FCC analyzed the relevant
    considerations and properly exercised its discretion. See, e.g.,
    Reconsideration Order ¶ 63 (Radio/TV Cross-Ownership
    Rule) (concluding the rule “no longer strikes an appropriate
    balance between the protection of viewpoint diversity and the
    10
    potential public interest benefits that could result from the
    efficiencies gained by common ownership of radio and
    television stations in a local market”); see also 
    id.
     ¶¶ 55–58
    (rule no longer contributes substantially to viewpoint
    diversity); id. ¶ 59 (rule is out of step with “realities of the
    digital media marketplace”); id. ¶ 62 (“rule already permits
    significant cross-ownership in local markets”); id. ¶ 64 (“no
    evidence that any additional common ownership” resulting
    from repeal “would disproportionately or negatively impact
    minority- and female-owned stations”).
    Traditional principles of deference are particularly apt
    here. Not every decision the FCC makes is susceptible to
    precise analysis; some “rest on judgment and prediction rather
    than pure factual determinations.” WNCN Listeners Guild, 
    450 U.S. at 594
    . Predictions about the future effects of rules not yet
    in being are “inherently speculative.” Council Tree Inv’rs, Inc.
    v. FCC, 
    863 F.3d 237
    , 243 (3d Cir. 2017) (Council Tree IV)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    The FCC reasonably predicted on the record before it
    that the new rules would not diminish or harm minority and
    women ownership. The question whether the rules and
    ownership diversity are interconnected was aired over the
    course of the 2010/14 quadrennial review. The FCC invited
    comment and data that might shed light on this connection.
    See, e.g., 2014 FNPRM ¶ 222. It concluded—based on its
    understanding of the broadcast markets, the evidence in the
    record, and the only data submitted—that repeal of the rules
    was unlikely to harm ownership diversity. See, e.g.,
    Reconsideration Order ¶ 83 (Local TV Rule) (“In this lengthy
    proceeding, no party has presented contrary evidence or a
    compelling argument demonstrating why relaxing this rule
    11
    will” harm ownership diversity.); id. ¶ 69 (adopting revised
    rule based on understanding of changed competitive
    dynamics); id. ¶ 71 (observing changes in marketplace but
    noting “broadcast television stations still play a unique and
    important role in their local communities”); see also 2014
    FNPRM ¶ 224 (Radio/TV Cross-Ownership Rule) (noting no
    commenter has shown “low levels of [women and minority]
    ownership are a result of existing radio/television cross-
    ownership rule”). 2 The effect the new rules will have on
    2F
    women- and minority-broadcast ownership may remain
    difficult to uncover until the FCC gains experience with the
    new rules. See NCCB, 
    436 U.S. at
    796–97; Council Tree Inv’rs,
    Inc. v. FCC, 
    619 F.3d 235
    , 252–53 (3d Cir. 2010). Faced with
    such a question, “complete factual support in the record for the
    2
    To the extent my colleagues require the FCC to conduct
    empirical analysis on remand, they risk impermissibly adding
    requirements beyond the APA. See Perez v. Mortgage Bankers
    Ass’n, 
    135 S. Ct. 1199
    , 1207 (2015). They quote Stilwell v.
    Office of Thrift Supervision’s instruction that the “APA
    imposes no general obligation on agencies to produce
    empirical evidence.” Maj. Op. 38 (quoting 
    569 F.3d 514
    , 519
    (D.C. Cir. 2009)). But they argue Stilwell is distinguishable
    because there the agency relied on its “long experience”
    supervising the industry and did not act on “faulty and
    insubstantial data” like the FCC did here. 
    Id.
     Setting aside the
    FCC’s eight decades regulating broadcast media, the basic
    principle that the APA “imposes no general obligation on
    agencies to produce empirical evidence” applies regardless of
    the quality of the data in the record. Stilwell, 
    569 F.3d at 519
    ;
    see Council Tree IV, 863 F.3d at 244 (“[W]e review only for
    the use of relevant, not perfect, data.”). Were it otherwise, the
    principle would be meaningless.
    12
    Commission’s judgment or prediction is not possible or
    required.” NCCB, 
    436 U.S. at 814
    . Under these circumstances
    settled principles of administrative law counsel deference to
    the FCC’s prediction.3
    Citizen Petitioners emphasize that the FCC acted on
    faulty minority-ownership data and no women-ownership data.
    See, e.g., Citizen Petitioners’ Br. 26–30. This data, which the
    FCC acknowledged as imperfect, measured minority
    ownership before and after two prior regulatory changes—in
    1996 and 1999. Such data weaknesses are not fatal to the
    FCC’s regulations—not only because, as noted, data gaps are
    inherent to predictive regulation, but also because it is not
    certain the data demanded would alter the FCC’s analysis.
    First, Citizen Petitioners assume that the experience of these
    earlier changes will speak directly to the effects of the
    Reconsideration Order. Even if the FCC could obtain
    improved data on these decades-old regulatory changes, that
    information offers only modest predictive value for the
    consequences of the FCC’s current rules regarding
    modernization. Second, as noted the FCC considers five types
    of diversity, not to mention competition and localism. The
    FCC’s lack of some data relevant to one of these considerations
    should not outweigh its reasonable predictive judgments,
    3
    This is true despite Citizen Petitioners’ criticism of the
    FCC’s methodology and data. Not only does the FCC have
    policymaking discretion, subject to the APA it also has
    discretion “to proceed on the basis of imperfect scientific
    information, rather than to invest the resources to conduct the
    perfect study.” Cablevision Sys. Corp. v. FCC, 
    649 F.3d 695
    ,
    717 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (quoting Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    167 F.3d 658
    , 662 (D.C. Cir. 1999)).
    13
    particularly in the absence of any contrary information, such
    that its entire policy update is held up.
    The FCC must “repeal or modify” rules that cease to
    serve the public interest even when it lacks optimal data.
    Telecommunications Act of 1996, § 202(h). The FCC has
    revised its Form 323 and conducted outreach programs to ease
    compliance with its reporting requirements. 2016 Report &
    Order ¶ 265. These are encouraging measures that could make
    the FCC’s data more reliable, benefiting future quadrennial
    reviews. The FCC intends to take up a variety of diversity-
    related proposals in its 2018 quadrennial review. See 2018
    Quadrennial Regulatory Review—Review of the Commission’s
    Broadcast Ownership Rules and Other Rules Adopted
    Pursuant to Section 202 of the Telecommunications Act of
    1996, Notice of Proposed Rulemaking, 33 FCC Rcd. 12111 ¶¶
    93–121 (2018). I would direct it to follow through on its
    announcement as well as study the effects of the latest rules on
    ownership diversity. I would not, however, delay the
    Reconsideration Order based on the analytical shortcomings
    Citizen Petitioners emphasize.
    In short, I believe the FCC has explained its decision. I
    would deny the petitions and allow the Reconsideration
    Order’s rule changes to take effect.
    B.
    My colleagues remand the 2016 Report & Order’s
    eligible entity definition for the FCC to ascertain what effect
    the revenue-based definition will have on women and minority
    ownership. But the FCC adopted the eligible entity definition
    to “serve the public interest by promoting small business
    14
    participation in the broadcast industry and potential entry by
    new entrepreneurs.” See 2016 Report & Order ¶ 279; see id. ¶¶
    280–86. It thoroughly explained its policy choice. The record
    indicated that the revenue-based eligible entity definition will
    promote the FCC’s “traditional policy objectives . . . by
    enhancing opportunities for small business[es].” Id. ¶ 281. The
    FCC’s brief experience with this definition confirmed “a
    significant number of broadcast licensees and permittees
    availed themselves of policies based on the revenue-based
    eligible entity standard.” Id. ¶ 283 (observing widespread use
    of the policy allowing certain eligible entities generous
    construction permits). No commenters argued the revenue-
    based eligible entity definition does not serve the public
    interest according to the FCC’s analysis. Id. ¶ 276.
    This stands in contrast to the last time the FCC
    employed this definition. During its 2006 quadrennial review
    the FCC adopted a revenue-based eligibility entity definition
    to promote ownership diversity. The approach failed because
    the FCC provided no support for why its definition would “be
    effective in creating new opportunities for broadcast ownership
    by . . . women and minorities.” Prometheus II, 
    652 F.3d at 470
    (internal quotation marks and citation omitted). The key
    distinction, of course, is the FCC’s policy decision to reorient
    its eligible entity definition. As revised, it is intended to
    “encourage innovation and enhance viewpoint diversity” by
    “promoting small business participation in the broadcast
    industry.” 2016 Report & Order ¶ 235. Because the FCC
    pursued the revenue-based definition in past efforts to promote
    ownership diversity, it evidently believed the definition would
    not harm ownership diversity. Nothing in the present record
    suggests otherwise. In my view the FCC properly complied
    with its obligations under the APA.
    15
    C.
    Under today’s outcome, I regret that the FCC’s
    incubator program will not have an opportunity to stand or fall
    on its own merit. See Rules and Policies to Promote New Entry
    and Ownership Diversity in the Broadcasting Services, 33 FCC
    Rcd. 7911 (2018) (Incubator Order). Citizen Petitioners take
    issue with the program’s criteria for who is eligible to realize
    its benefits. The FCC adopted a two-prong eligible entity
    definition: participants must be both “new entrants” based on
    the number of stations owned and “small businesses” based on
    revenue. See id. ¶ 16. The FCC designed these criteria “to
    encourage new entry into” an “extremely capital-intensive”
    industry. Id. ¶ 18. The program’s benefits will not exclusively
    accrue to minority and women broadcasters as the eligibility
    criteria sweep in all emerging radio broadcasters. This breadth
    is consistent with the incubator program’s stated goal. Yet
    based on its review of data from incentive auctions, the FCC
    predicts that the “new entrant” prong will likely benefit
    prospective women and minority applicants. Id. ¶¶ 21–24.
    The incubator program is a reasonable policy designed
    to “support the entry of new and diverse voices into the
    broadcast industry.” Id. ¶ 1. The FCC “has long contemplated
    the potential for” a program that pairs emerging and
    experienced broadcasters to ease entry into radio broadcasting.
    Id. ¶ 2. The Incubator Order established the first program to
    convert these ideas into a concrete policy. See ¶ 3. Before
    adopting the program, the FCC considered alternative
    eligibility criteria and invited “comment on how to determine
    eligibility for participation in the incubator program.” Id ¶ 17;
    see id. ¶¶ 28–30 (declining to adopt competing proposals that
    might prove “administratively inefficient,” and committing to
    16
    “conduct outreach to help encourage participation in the
    incubator program by mission-based entities and Native
    American Nations” that are eligible). It then provided
    comprehensive reasoning to justify the path it chose. See id. ¶
    20 (“The record reflects that individuals seeking to purchase
    their first or second broadcast station are the ones that often
    face the most challenging financial hurdles.”); id. ¶ 21 (citing
    incentive auction data showing definition could modestly
    benefit women and minorities); id. ¶ 22 (citing comments
    suggesting the same); id. ¶ 25 & n.53 (noting that revenue cap
    narrows band of eligible entities); id. ¶ 27 (“Use of an objective
    standard has the advantage of being straightforward and
    transparent for potential applicants, as well as administrable for
    the Commission without application of significant additional
    processing resources.”). The FCC complied with the APA in
    determining its “eligible entity” definition. Its choice, in my
    view, is an aspect of program design largely left to the agency’s
    policy discretion, subject to the APA, Telecommunications Act
    of 1996, and other relevant statutes. The FCC’s order draws a
    rational line between the record and decision made, and I
    would allow the incubator program to take effect.
    IV.
    For the reasons provided, I would deny the petitions for
    review and allow the FCC’s orders to take effect.
    17
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 17-1107

Filed Date: 9/23/2019

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 9/23/2019

Authorities (33)

Prometheus Radio Project v. Federal Communications ... , 652 F.3d 431 ( 2011 )

public-citizen-health-research-group-the-paper-allied-industrial-chemical , 314 F.3d 143 ( 2002 )

David R. Ruiz, United States of America, Intervenor-... , 688 F.2d 266 ( 1982 )

prometheus-radio-project-v-federal-communications-commission-united-states , 373 F.3d 372 ( 2004 )

Council Tree Communications, Inc. v. Federal Communications ... , 619 F.3d 235 ( 2010 )

oil-chemical-and-atomic-workers-union-and-public-citizens-health-research , 145 F.3d 120 ( 1998 )

Sierra Club v. Environmental Protection Agency , 292 F.3d 895 ( 2002 )

At&T Corp. v. Federal Communications Commission , 220 F.3d 607 ( 2000 )

Texas Independent Producers and Royalty Owners Association ... , 410 F.3d 964 ( 2005 )

Rural Cellular Ass'n v. Federal Communications Commission , 588 F.3d 1095 ( 2009 )

Sinclair Broadcast Group, Inc. v. Federal Communications ... , 284 F.3d 148 ( 2002 )

Stilwell v. Office of Thrift Supervision , 569 F.3d 514 ( 2009 )

David R. Ruiz, United States of America, Intervenor-... , 679 F.2d 1115 ( 1982 )

northwest-environmental-defense-center-northwest-resource-information , 117 F.3d 1520 ( 1997 )

Cobell, Elouise v. Norton, Gale , 334 F.3d 1128 ( 2003 )

Rainbow/Push Coalition v. Federal Communications Commission , 330 F.3d 539 ( 2003 )

Sprint Corporation v. Federal Communications Commission and ... , 315 F.3d 369 ( 2003 )

Sierra Club v. United States Environmental Protection Agency , 167 F.3d 658 ( 1999 )

Cablevision Systems Corp. v. Federal Communications ... , 649 F.3d 695 ( 2011 )

rainbowpush-coalition-v-federal-communications-commission-curators-of , 396 F.3d 1235 ( 2005 )

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