United States v. Malik Nasir ( 2020 )


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  •                                     PRECEDENTIAL
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    _____________
    No. 18-2888
    _____________
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
    v.
    MALIK NASIR,
    Appellant
    _______________
    On Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Delaware
    (D.C. No. 1-16-cr-00015-001)
    District Judge: Hon. Leonard P. Stark
    _______________
    Argued on November 12, 2019 before Merits Panel
    Argued En Banc on June 24, 2020
    Before: SMITH, Chief Judge, McKEE, AMBRO,
    CHAGARES, JORDAN, HARDIMAN, GREENAWAY, JR.,
    SHWARTZ, KRAUSE, RESTREPO, BIBAS, PORTER,
    MATEY, PHIPPS, SCIRICA,* and RENDELL,* Circuit
    Judges.
    (Filed: December 1, 2020)
    _______________
    Leigh M. Skipper
    Brett G. Sweitzer
    Keith M. Donoghue [ARGUED]
    Federal Community Defender Office
    For the Eastern District of Pennsylvania
    601 Walnut Street
    The Curtis Center – Suite 540 West
    Philadelphia, PA 19106
    Counsel for Appellant
    Ilya Shapiro
    Cato Institute
    1000 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
    Washington, DC 20001
    Counsel for Amicus Cato Institute
    *
    Judges Scirica and Rendell have elected to participate
    as a member of the en banc court pursuant to Third Cir. I.O.P.
    9.6.4.
    2
    Jared McClain
    New Civil Liberties Alliance
    1225 19th Street, NW – Suite 450
    Washington, DC 20036
    Counsel for Amicus New Civil Liberties Alliance
    Evan A. Young
    Baker Botts
    98 San Jacinto Boulevard – Suite 1500
    Austin, TX 78701
    Counsel for National Association of Home Builders,
    American Farm Bureau Federation,
    National Cattlemens Beef Association, and
    National Mining Association
    David C. Weiss
    Robert F. Kravetz [ARGUED]
    Whitney C. Cloud [ARGUED]
    Daniel E. Logan, Jr.
    Office of United States Attorney
    1313 North Market Street
    Hercules Bldg. – Ste. 400
    Wilmington, DE 19801
    Counsel for Appellee
    _______________
    OPINION OF THE COURT**
    **
    The opinions of Judges McKee, Ambro, Jordan,
    Greenaway, Jr., Krause, Restrepo, Matey, Scirica, and Rendell
    are reflected in this Majority Opinion in Sections I, II.D., and
    II.E., as well as in the Conclusion in Section III of the Opinion,
    3
    _______________
    JORDAN, Circuit Judge.
    On a tip, Malik Nasir was arrested near a storage unit in
    which he kept the marijuana he was selling. He was
    subsequently charged with, and convicted of, two drug
    offenses and a firearm offense. At sentencing, the District
    Court applied a career offender enhancement. Nasir now
    appeals his convictions and challenges the application of that
    enhancement. We will affirm Nasir’s convictions in part but,
    in light of the Supreme Court’s decision in Rehaif v. United
    States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191
     (2019), we will vacate his conviction as
    a felon in possession of a firearm and remand for a new trial on
    that charge, as well as for resentencing on the remaining counts
    of conviction.
    to the extent the Conclusion addresses subjects considered in
    Sections II.D and II.E. Judge Bibas has written a concurring
    opinion as to Section II.D., and Judge Matey has written a
    concurring opinion as to Section II.E. The opinions of Chief
    Judge Smith and Judges Chagares, Hardiman, Shwartz, Bibas,
    Porter, and Phipps are reflected in the Partial Dissent authored
    by Judge Porter and in Sections I and II.D. of the Majority
    Opinion, and in the Conclusion in Section III, to the extent the
    Conclusion addresses the subject considered in Section
    II.D. The remaining portions of the Majority Opinion
    represent the precedential decision of the original panel in this
    case, consisting of Judges Jordan, Scirica, and Rendell.
    4
    I.     BACKGROUND
    On December 21, 2015, the owner of a storage facility
    in Dover, Delaware reported to the police suspicious activity at
    one of the storage units, number C69. The owner asked the
    police to visit the storage facility to discuss what he believed
    to be “drug occurrences” on his property. (App. at 90.) When
    the police arrived, he told them that, over the past several
    months, someone had visited that unit frequently, as often as
    five times a day. Each time, the man – whom he identified as
    Nasir – would enter the storage unit and close the door behind
    him. Shortly thereafter, he would reemerge and leave the
    facility. Concerned about illegal activity, the owner had taken
    a photograph of the inside of the unit, which he showed the
    officers. It revealed two large coolers, two closed buckets, a
    box of baggies, a large bag, and an aerosol spray can. The
    owner provided a copy of a rental agreement signed by Nasir
    and a photocopy of Nasir’s driver’s license. The rental
    agreement listed Nasir’s storage unit as C43, not C69, but the
    police apparently did not notice that discrepancy.1
    Following up on the information provided by the
    facility owner, the police ran a criminal history check on Nasir
    and learned that he had a criminal record that included felony
    drug convictions. They visited unit C69 with a drug detection
    dog, and the dog positively alerted to the presence of drugs
    there. Based on the accumulated evidence, the detectives
    applied for a search warrant for that unit.
    1
    Nasir had initially agreed to rent unit C43, but soon
    after transferred to unit C69.
    5
    While awaiting the warrant, several police officers
    remained at the storage unit, and one surveilled Nasir’s home.
    The officer at the home saw Nasir place a large black bag in
    the back of a Mercury Mariner SUV and drive in the direction
    of the storage facility. Nasir in fact went to the facility, and,
    when he arrived, the officers stopped him as he entered the row
    of units including numbers C69 and C43. After handcuffing
    him and putting him in the back of a patrol car, they searched
    his SUV, where they found a black duffle bag and a key to unit
    C69.
    That same night, a search warrant issued and was
    executed. In unit C69, the police found more than three
    kilograms of marijuana, as well as scales and packaging
    materials. The next day, they applied for and received a search
    warrant for Nasir’s home and any vehicles on the property.
    While executing the warrant, the officers found $5,000 in cash
    in a grocery bag in the house and several handguns with
    ammunition in a Dodge Charger parked on the property.
    Nasir was indicted for violating 
    21 U.S.C. § 856
    (a)(1),
    part of what is commonly known as the crack house statute
    (Count     One),    and      was     also    charged     under
    
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
    (a)(1) and (b)(1)(D) for possession of
    marijuana with intent to distribute (Count Two), and under 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and 924(a)(2) as a felon in possession of a
    firearm (Count Three). He moved to suppress the evidence
    obtained from the searches of the storage unit, his house, and
    his vehicles. The District Court held hearings on that motion
    and denied it.
    At trial, and of particular relevance now, Nasir entered
    a stipulation with the government as to the charge that he
    6
    illegally possessed a firearm. Pursuant to Old Chief v. United
    States, 
    519 U.S. 172
     (1997),2 he stipulated that, prior to the date
    when he allegedly possessed the firearm, he had been
    “convicted of a felony crime punishable by imprisonment for
    a term exceeding one year, in the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of Virginia.”3 (Supp. App. at 21.) The
    jury convicted him on all three counts of the indictment.
    2
    Old Chief held that defendants in prosecutions under
    
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1) are entitled to enter a stipulation
    establishing their status as felons (and thus as persons
    prohibited from possessing firearms), in which case the
    government cannot introduce evidence establishing what the
    prior offense was. “The most the jury needs to know is that the
    conviction admitted by the defendant falls within the class of
    crimes that Congress thought should bar a convict from
    possessing a gun, and this point may be made readily in a
    defendant’s admission … .” 
    519 U.S. at 174
    , 190–91.
    3
    In its entirety, the stipulation stated:
    The United States of America, by and
    through its undersigned attorneys, and James
    Brose, attorney for Defendant Nasir, hereby
    stipulate and agree to the following:
    Prior to December 21, 2015, the date
    alleged in Count Three of the Indictment,
    Defendant Malik Nasir was convicted of a felony
    crime punishable by imprisonment for a term
    exceeding one year, in the United States District
    Court for the Eastern District of Virginia.
    7
    After the trial, Nasir filed a motion to set aside the
    verdict and a motion for a new trial, both of which were denied.
    The District Court sentenced him to 210 months of
    imprisonment and three years of supervised release, having
    determined that he qualified as a career offender under the
    United States Sentencing Guidelines (the “guidelines”)
    because of two earlier convictions in Virginia, one from the
    year 2000 for attempting to possess cocaine with intent to
    distribute and one from 2001 for possession of cocaine and
    marijuana. This timely appeal followed.
    II.    DISCUSSION4
    Nasir raises five arguments. First, he says that there was
    insufficient evidence to sustain his conviction under the crack
    house statute because the section of the statute under which he
    was convicted does not make it unlawful to store drugs.
    Second, he argues that the officer who searched the Mercury
    Mariner did not have probable cause to justify that search, so
    the evidence found there should have been suppressed. Third,
    he contends that a member of his jury was avowedly partial, so
    seating her deprived him of a fair trial. Fourth, he asserts that
    the career offender enhancement under the guidelines should
    not have factored into his sentencing because one of his prior
    felony convictions does not qualify as a “controlled substance
    offense,” as that term is defined in the guidelines. Finally, he
    (Supp. App. at 21.)
    4
    The District Court had jurisdiction under 
    18 U.S.C. § 3231
    . We have jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
     and 
    18 U.S.C. § 3742
    .
    8
    argues that the government did not prove that he knew he was
    a felon, as is now required by Rehaif in a prosecution under 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g), 
    139 S. Ct. at 2194
    , so his conviction under
    that statute for being a felon in possession of a firearm cannot
    stand.
    We will affirm the District Court’s denial of Nasir’s
    motion for acquittal as to Counts 1 and 2 and accordingly
    affirm those convictions. In doing so, we reject Nasir’s first
    three arguments. However, we agree that he does not qualify
    for the career offender enhancement and must be resentenced.
    We also hold that his conviction for being a felon in possession
    of a firearm must be vacated and remanded for a new trial on
    that count of the indictment.
    A.     The Crack House Conviction
    Nasir first challenges his conviction under the crack
    house statute, specifically 
    21 U.S.C. § 856
    (a)(1), which makes
    it unlawful to “knowingly … lease, rent, use, or maintain any
    place … for the purpose of manufacturing, distributing, or
    using any controlled substance.” Despite the breadth of that
    language, Nasir argues that his conviction should be reversed
    because, he says, that subsection was not meant to cover
    storage.5 Nasir did not preserve that argument in the District
    5
    Nasir does not argue that 
    21 U.S.C. § 856
    (a)(1) does
    not cover storage units; instead, he says that it does not cover
    the activity of storing. The distinction he attempts to draw is
    irrelevant here because, as we will explain, there was ample
    evidence to support the finding that Nasir was not merely
    storing drugs, he was distributing drugs from a rented place.
    9
    Court, so we review the denial of his motion for judgment of
    acquittal for plain error.6 United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    ,
    731 (1993). We will reverse for plain error only if there was
    an actual error that is plain, that affects “the outcome of the
    district court proceedings,” and that “seriously affect[s] the
    fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial proceedings.”
    
    Id. at 734-36
     (citations and internal quotation marks omitted)
    (alteration in original).
    Nasir’s argument rests on the contrast between
    subsection (a)(1) of the crack house statute, which he was
    convicted of violating, and subsection (a)(2), under which he
    was not charged. That latter subsection declares it unlawful to
    “manage or control any place, whether permanently or
    temporarily, … and knowingly and intentionally rent, lease,
    profit from, or make available for use, with or without
    compensation, the place for the purpose of unlawfully
    manufacturing, storing, distributing, or using a controlled
    substance.” 
    21 U.S.C. § 856
    (a)(2) (emphasis added).
    According to Nasir, because “storing” is listed as a
    prohibited activity in subsection (a)(2) but is not mentioned in
    subsection (a)(1), it was intentionally excluded from (a)(1). By
    6
    Nasir claims he preserved his position when he raised
    a sufficiency-of-the-evidence challenge. At trial, Nasir’s
    attorney said, “[s]uccinctly, it’s our position that the
    government has not proved Mr. Nasir in possession of either
    the firearms or the marijuana.” (App. at 549.) But counsel’s
    generic statement, which made no reference to 
    21 U.S.C. § 856
    , was not sufficient to preserve a claim of error on this
    issue.
    10
    his lights, since he was storing illegal drugs, he should be safe
    from conviction under (a)(1). But even if we were inclined to
    accept that subsection (a)(1) does not cover storage, that does
    not help Nasir. No sensible reading of the statute allows one
    to distribute drugs just because one is also storing them.
    Within unit C69, besides the drugs themselves, there was drug
    distribution paraphernalia, namely scales and packaging
    materials such as food storage bags. In addition to that
    evidence, there was the testimony of the facility owner about
    Nasir’s frequent and suspicious trips to the unit. Subsection
    (a)(1) expressly prohibits “distributing” a controlled substance
    from any rented place, and the jury was presented with more
    than ample evidence that Nasir was doing just that. The
    District Court properly instructed the jury that it could find
    Nasir guilty of violating section 856(a)(1) if he used a “place
    for the purpose of manufacturing, distributing, or using any
    controlled substance.” (App. at 615 (emphasis added).) There
    was thus an obvious and legitimate basis for his conviction
    under the crack house statute, and the District Court’s denial of
    Nasir’s motion for a judgment of acquittal was not error at all,
    let alone plain error.
    B.     The Motion to Suppress Evidence from the
    SUV
    Nasir also appeals the denial of his motion to suppress
    the evidence retrieved in the search of his Mercury Mariner
    SUV. He repeats the argument he made in the District Court,
    saying that the officer who searched the SUV lacked probable
    cause. We review de novo whether there was probable cause
    to justify police action. United States v. Vasquez-Algarin, 
    821 F.3d 467
    , 471 (3d Cir. 2016).
    11
    The legal theories offered in opposition to and support
    of the SUV search have morphed over time. They began with
    Nasir objecting to the search as the proverbial fruit of the
    poisonous tree. He said the “[p]olice did not have cause to
    arrest [him] at the time he arrived at the storage facility parking
    lot and accordingly all statements made by him and any
    evidence found subsequent to his arrest should be suppressed.”
    (App. at 47.) In responding to that motion, the government
    said that the search of the SUV “was a lawful search incident
    to a valid arrest pursuant to Arizona v. Gant, 
    556 U.S. 332
    (2009).” (App. at 60 n.21.) The government also stated that,
    at the suppression hearing, it “would present evidence that the
    search … was a valid inventory search[,]” although apparently
    it did not do so. (App. at 60 n.21.) In his post-hearing rebuttal
    briefing before the District Court, Nasir argued that the search
    of the SUV was unlawful as a search incident to arrest and as
    an inventory search. The District Court ultimately classified
    the search as being incident to Nasir’s arrest but noted that,
    even if the search had occurred prior to the arrest, “the search
    of the vehicle appears to have been within the scope of the
    automobile exception” to the warrant requirement of the
    Fourth Amendment. (App. at 21 n.4 (citations omitted).)
    On appeal, Nasir simply asserts that there was no
    probable cause to search the SUV, without specifying the legal
    framework for analysis.7 We conclude that the District Court
    7
    Although Nasir pointed out in his briefing that the
    arresting officer said he “[b]asically … looked at [the search]
    as an inventory search,” (App. at 138,) that does not appear to
    have been the theory that the government pursued before the
    District Court or now pursues on appeal.
    12
    correctly approached the issue as being a search incident to
    arrest. Even when, like Nasir, an arrestee is detained and not
    within reach of his vehicle, the police may conduct “a search
    incident to a lawful arrest when it is reasonable to believe
    evidence relevant to the crime of arrest might be found in the
    vehicle.” Gant, 
    556 U.S. at 343
     (citation and internal quotation
    marks omitted). Whether viewed as a question of probable
    cause to arrest Nasir or probable cause to search the SUV under
    the automobile exception, however, the pertinent facts and the
    outcome are the same.
    In challenging the search of the SUV, Nasir says that
    the evidence uncovered in that vehicle – a black duffle bag and
    the key to unit C69 – should have been suppressed because the
    investigating officers did not corroborate the tip from the
    storage facility owner. Nasir characterizes the owner as an
    unknown and unreliable informant, and he lays particular
    emphasis on the incorrect unit number on the rental agreement
    the owner provided to the police. Nasir also argues that the
    District Court impermissibly attributed information known
    only to officers not present at the search to the officer who
    actually conducted the search.           His arguments are
    unpersuasive.
    When the police receive information from an informant
    for the first time, they have a duty to independently corroborate
    at least some of the information the informant provides. See
    Illinois v. Gates, 
    462 U.S. 213
    , 242 (1983) (“[A]n officer may
    rely upon information received through an informant, rather
    than upon his direct observations, so long as the informant’s
    statement is reasonably corroborated by other matters within
    the officer’s knowledge.” (citation and internal quotation
    marks omitted)). They discharged that duty in this case. The
    13
    arresting officers personally knew the following at the time of
    the arrest and related search of the vehicle: according to a
    background check, Nasir had a history of drug dealing; the
    owner of the storage facility had reported Nasir engaged in
    suspicious activity at unit C69, including making numerous
    trips to the storage unit, sometimes several in a day; the owner
    had taken a photograph that showed items in the unit consistent
    with drug distribution; an officer had seen Nasir put a bag in
    the back of his car and drive toward the storage facility; and a
    narcotics dog had positively alerted to drugs at unit C69.
    Given the totality of those circumstances known to the
    officers who arrested Nasir, there was certainly probable cause,
    reasonably corroborated, for Nasir’s arrest, and it was
    reasonable to believe that evidence of his drug dealing would
    be found in the SUV.8 We will therefore affirm the District
    Court’s denial of Nasir’s motion to suppress.
    C.     The Ruling on Alleged Juror Bias
    8
    We note, as did the District Court, that even if the
    search had been performed prior to Nasir’s arrest, “the search
    of the vehicle appears to have been within the scope of the
    automobile exception.” (App. at 21 n.4 (citations omitted).) It
    is well established that under the automobile exception to the
    warrant requirement, the police may search a vehicle if they
    have probable cause to believe that the vehicle contains
    evidence of criminal activity. Carroll v. United States, 
    267 U.S. 132
    , 155-56 (1925). Here, the same facts that gave rise to
    probable cause for an arrest can rightly be seen as
    independently giving rise to probable cause for a search of the
    vehicle.
    14
    Nasir next claims that he was deprived of a fair and
    impartial jury because one of the jurors at his trial, Juror 27,
    did not unequivocally affirm that she would be impartial. Our
    review of a ruling on a motion to strike a juror for cause is for
    manifest error – a most deferential standard. Skilling v. United
    States, 
    561 U.S. 358
    , 396 (2010). The Supreme Court has
    emphasized that jury selection is “particularly within the
    province of the trial judge” and cautioned against “second-
    guessing the trial judge’s estimation of a juror’s impartiality[.]”
    
    Id. at 386
     (citation and internal quotation marks omitted).
    During voir dire, one of the questions the District Court
    asked to determine juror partiality was, “Would you give more
    or less weight to the testimony of a law enforcement agent or
    police officer than you would give to that of a civilian witness,
    simply because he or she is employed as a law enforcement
    agent or police officer?” (App. at 237-38.) Because Juror 27
    answered “yes” to that question, the following colloquy
    ensued:
    A JUROR: […] But the other thing that I kind
    of answered “yes” to was police officer and a
    person on the street. I would like to think I would
    be partial (sic), but I don’t know.
    THE COURT: You would like to think you
    would be impartial and fair to both sides?
    A JUROR: Yes, impartial that is what I would
    like to say.
    THE COURT:          What is your concern you
    wouldn’t be?
    A JUROR: Well, my daughter dates a state
    police officer. And I really have a lot of respect
    15
    for them, you know, and I feel that for the most
    part they all do a good job, and they try to be fair.
    I think I might tend to believe what they say. I
    don’t know.
    THE COURT: Do you think if I instruct you that
    you have to be fair and impartial and assess
    everybody’s credibility as best as you can that
    you would be able to do that?
    A JUROR: I would think I would. I would hope
    I would.
    (App. at 305.) Then, outside the juror’s presence the
    Court and counsel had this further conversation:
    [NASIR’S ATTORNEY]: Your Honor, I move
    to strike on the basis that she -- her daughter is
    dating a state police officer and she would tend
    to believe the officer and police testimony.
    THE COURT:           What is the government’s
    position?
    [GOVERNMENT’S ATTORNEY]:                  Your
    Honor, I don’t have a real strong one. That she
    would answer any questions that she was
    instructed [sic]. She could stay impartial. She
    confronted all those issues.        I certainly
    understand why [Defense counsel] is objecting.
    THE COURT: Any response?
    [NASIR’S ATTORNEY]: No response, Your
    Honor.
    THE COURT: I’m going to deny the motion. I
    felt sufficient confidence that she would work as
    hard as anyone could to be fair and impartial, and
    16
    I think she would follow the instructions. So I’m
    denying the motion to strike.
    (App. at 306-07). Nasir argues that the statements “I would
    think I would” and “I would hope I would” are not sufficiently
    strong affirmations of impartiality.
    Because the juror admitted to her concern about
    partiality, the District Court quite rightly asked follow-up
    questions to determine whether she was actually biased. Cf.
    United States v. Mitchell, 
    690 F.3d 137
    , 142 (3d Cir. 2012)
    (holding that actual bias is “the existence of a state of mind that
    leads to an inference that the person will not act with entire
    impartiality[,]” unlike implied bias, which is “presumed as [a]
    matter of law” (citations and internal quotation marks
    omitted)). Here, Juror 27’s acknowledgement that she “ha[s]
    a lot of respect for” police officers and “might tend to believe
    what they say” prompted the District Court to emphasize her
    obligation to be fair and impartial and to weigh the evidence
    equally. (App. at 305.) She responded with assurances that
    she would follow the Court’s instructions. Her declaration that
    she “would think” and “would hope” (App. at 305) that she
    could be impartial – combined, it seems, with the way in which
    she said it – allowed the District Court, observing her behavior
    and mannerisms first hand, to have “sufficient confidence that
    she would work as hard as anyone could to be fair and
    impartial.” (App. at 306-07.) That decision, on this record, is
    not manifestly erroneous.
    D.     The Career Offender Enhancement
    Nasir next challenges the enhancement he received at
    sentencing pursuant to the “career offender” provision of the
    sentencing guidelines. He argues that he should not have
    17
    received the enhancement because one of his two prior
    qualifying convictions was an inchoate drug offense, which
    does not qualify as a predicate offense under the plain language
    of the guidelines. The interpretation of the guidelines is a legal
    question, so we exercise plenary review. United States v.
    Wilson, 
    880 F.3d 80
    , 83 (3d Cir. 2018). We agree with Nasir
    that the plain language of the guidelines does not include
    inchoate crimes, so he must be resentenced.
    1.     The Definition of “Controlled Substance
    Offenses” in the Guidelines
    Under section 4B1.1 of the sentencing guidelines, an
    adult defendant is a career offender if “the instant offense of
    conviction is a felony that is either a crime of violence or a
    controlled substance offense; and … the defendant has at least
    two prior felony convictions of either a crime of violence or a
    controlled substance offense.” U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1(a). If a
    defendant is a career offender, that designation increases the
    offense level of the crime for which he is to be sentenced and
    mandates a criminal history ranking of Category VI.
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.1(b).
    The District Court determined that one of Nasir’s three
    convictions in this case is a controlled substance offense,
    namely his conviction on Count Two for possession of
    marijuana with intent to distribute. After evaluating Nasir’s
    criminal history, the Court concluded that two of his prior
    convictions in Virginia state court also qualify as predicate
    controlled substance offenses: a 2000 conviction for an attempt
    to possess with intent to distribute cocaine and a 2001
    conviction for possession of marijuana and cocaine with intent
    18
    to distribute.9 Nasir was accordingly sentenced as a career
    offender.
    He argues that his conviction in 2000 for attempting to
    possess with intent to distribute cocaine should not qualify as
    a “controlled substance offense” under section 4B1.1 because
    the guidelines’ definition of a “controlled substance offense”
    does not include inchoate crimes.10 In particular, Nasir points
    out that section 4B1.2 of the sentencing guidelines defines the
    term “controlled substance offense,” to mean
    an offense under federal or state law, punishable
    by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year,
    that prohibits the manufacture, import, export,
    distribution, or dispensing of a controlled
    substance (or a counterfeit substance) or the
    possession of a controlled substance (or a
    counterfeit    substance)    with     intent   to
    manufacture, import, export, distribute, or
    dispense.
    9
    Nasir has other prior convictions, but the government
    and Nasir appear to agree than none of them qualify as
    predicate offenses.
    10
    An inchoate offense is “[a] step toward the
    commission of another crime, the step itself being serious
    enough to merit punishment.”           Offense, Black’s Law
    Dictionary (11th ed. 2019). Inchoate offenses include, for
    example, the attempt, conspiracy, or solicitation to commit a
    crime. Id.
    19
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(b). Nasir notes this definition plainly does
    not mention inchoate crimes, and consequently asserts that his
    inchoate “attempt” crime should not qualify as a predicate
    offense for the career offender enhancement. The analytical
    problem is more complicated than that, however, because the
    commentary to section 4B1.2 appears to expand the definition
    of “‘controlled substance offense’ [to] include the offenses of
    aiding and abetting, conspiring, and attempting to commit such
    offenses.” U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2 cmt. n.1. That section of the
    commentary, and, importantly, our precedent on the
    application of the commentary to the interpretation of the
    guidelines, informed the District Court’s decision to apply the
    career offender enhancement. The question, then, is whether
    the more expansive commentary should be given controlling
    weight in interpreting the narrower guideline at issue here.11
    2.     The Effect of the Commentary on our
    Interpretation of the Guidelines
    11
    The Sentencing Commission has proposed an
    amendment to the guidelines to explicitly include inchoate
    offenses in section 4B1.2(b). Notice of Proposed Amendments,
    
    83 Fed. Reg. 65400
    -01, 65412-15 (Dec. 20, 2018). The
    proposed change has been submitted for notice and comment,
    and the time for notice and comment has closed. 
    Id.
     However,
    the Commission does not currently have a quorum (and has not
    had one since at least 2018), so it cannot act on that issue. U.S.
    Sentencing Commission, 2018 Annual Report 2-3, available at
    https://www.ussc.gov/sites/default/files/pdf/research-and-
    publications/annual-reports-and-sourcebooks/2018/2018-
    Annual-Report.pdf.
    20
    The extent to which the guidelines’ commentary
    controls our interpretation of the guidelines themselves is
    informed by principles of administrative law. In Stinson v.
    United States, 
    508 U.S. 36
     (1993), the Supreme Court
    considered how to classify the commentary to the sentencing
    guidelines and whether and when it should be given binding
    interpretive effect. Because the guidelines are written by the
    Sentencing Commission, a body that straddles both the
    legislative and judicial branches of the government, the Court
    determined that the commentary to the guidelines is more akin
    to an agency regulation than a statute. 
    Id. at 44
    . Consequently,
    the Court determined that the commentary should “be treated
    as an agency’s interpretation of its own legislative rule.” 
    Id.
    Relying on its opinion in Bowles v. Seminole Rock & Sand Co.,
    the Court said that such determinations should be given
    deference unless they are “plainly erroneous or inconsistent
    with the regulation.” 
    Id. at 45
     (quoting Bowles v. Seminole
    Rock & Sand Co., 
    325 U.S. 410
    , 414 (1945)). Further, the
    Court instructed that, “if the guideline which the commentary
    interprets will bear the construction,” the commentary can
    expand the guidelines, particularly when the commentary is
    “interpretive and explanatory.” Id. at 46-47. Accordingly, so-
    called Seminole Rock deference, also sometimes called Auer
    deference,12 governs the effect to be given to the guidelines
    commentary.
    12
    In 1945, the Supreme Court upheld a regulation from
    the Office of Price Administration in Bowles v. Seminole Rock,
    after it determined that the language of the regulation was
    consistent with Administration’s interpretation of the
    regulation. Seminole Rock, 
    325 U.S. at 417
    . Seminole Rock
    thus became shorthand for the doctrine of deference to an
    administrative agency’s interpretation of its own regulations.
    21
    Our precedent has followed that course. In United
    States v. Hightower, 
    25 F.3d 182
     (3d Cir. 1994), we applied the
    principles set forth in Stinson to determine whether inchoate
    crimes are covered by sections 4B1.1 and 4B1.2 of the
    sentencing guidelines. We asked “whether the Sentencing
    Commission exceeded its statutory authority by expanding the
    definition of a controlled substance offense” when it included
    inchoate offenses as part of the definition of the term
    “controlled substance offense” in the commentary to section
    4B1.2. Hightower, 
    25 F.3d at 184
     (internal quotation marks
    omitted). We determined that the commentary to 4B1.2 was
    explanatory and therefore binding. 
    Id. at 185-87
    . Specifically,
    although we admitted that the inclusion of inchoate crimes was
    an “expansion of the definition of a controlled substance
    offense[,]” we said that the expansion was “not ‘inconsistent
    with, or a plainly erroneous reading of,’ § 4B1.2(2) of the
    [s]entencing [g]uidelines, and that it does not ‘violate[ ] the
    Constitution or a federal statute.’” Id. at 187 (second two
    alterations in original) (quoting Stinson, 
    508 U.S. at 38
    ). We
    later followed that precedent in United States v. Glass, 
    904 F.3d 319
     (3d Cir. 2018), in which we held that a conviction
    under a Pennsylvania “attempt” statute qualified as a predicate
    controlled substance offense for the career offender
    enhancement under the guidelines.
    More than fifty years later, in Auer v. Robbins, 
    519 U.S. 452
    (1997), the Court reinforced that doctrine. The doctrine is thus
    sometimes referred to as Seminole Rock deference, after the
    case that introduced it, and at other times referred to as Auer
    deference, the more recent reiteration of the doctrine.
    22
    Our interpretation of the commentary at issue in
    Hightower – the same commentary before us now – was
    informed by the then-prevailing understanding of the deference
    that should be given to agency interpretations of their own
    regulations.      Thus, although we recognized that the
    commentary expanded and did not merely interpret the
    definition of “controlled substance offense,” we nevertheless
    gave it binding effect. In doing so, we may have gone too far
    in affording deference to the guidelines’ commentary under the
    standard set forth in Stinson. Indeed, after the Supreme
    Court’s decision last year in Kisor v. Wilkie, 
    139 S. Ct. 2400
    (2019), it is clear that such an interpretation is not warranted.
    In Kisor, the Court cut back on what had been
    understood to be uncritical and broad deference to agency
    interpretations of regulations and explained that Auer, or
    Seminole Rock, deference should only be applied when a
    regulation is genuinely ambiguous. 
    Id. at 2414-15
    . Kisor
    instructs that “a court must carefully consider the text,
    structure, history, and purpose of a regulation, in all the ways
    it would if it had no agency to fall back on. Doing so will
    resolve many seeming ambiguities out of the box, without
    resort to Auer deference.” 
    Id. at 2415
     (citation, brackets, and
    quotation marks omitted). Thus, before deciding that a
    regulation is “genuinely ambiguous, a court must exhaust all
    the traditional tools of construction.” 
    Id.
     (citation and
    quotation marks omitted).
    Even when a regulation is ambiguous, there are limits
    to deference. The agency’s reading must be “reasonable[,]” as
    informed by “[t]he text, structure, history, and so forth[,]”
    which “establish the outer bounds of permissible
    interpretation.” 
    Id. at 2415-16
    . A court “must make an
    23
    independent inquiry into whether the character and context of
    the agency interpretation entitles it to controlling weight[,]”
    including whether it is the agency’s “official position[.]” 
    Id. at 2416
    . Moreover, an agency’s interpretation must “in some
    way implicate its substantive expertise” if it is to be given
    controlling weight, since “[s]ome interpretive issues may fall
    more naturally into a judge’s bailiwick.” 
    Id. at 2417
    . Finally,
    the reading must “reflect fair and considered judgment” and
    not simply be a “convenient litigating position.” 
    Id.
     (citations
    and quotation marks omitted). In short, the degree of deference
    to be given an agency’s interpretation of its own regulations is
    now context dependent.
    3.      Plain Text and Policy
    The definition of “controlled substance offense” in
    section 4B1.2(b) of the guidelines is, again, in pertinent part as
    follows:
    [A]n offense under federal or state law,
    punishable by imprisonment for a term
    exceeding one year, that prohibits the
    manufacture, import, export, distribution, or
    dispensing of a controlled substance (or a
    counterfeit substance) or the possession of a
    controlled substance (or a counterfeit substance)
    with intent to manufacture, import, export,
    distribute, or dispense.
    U.S.S.G. § 4B1.2(b). The guideline does not even mention
    inchoate offenses. That alone indicates it does not include
    them.    The plain-text reading of section 4B1.2(b) is
    strengthened when contrasted with the definition of “crime of
    24
    violence” in the previous subsection. That definition in section
    4B1.2(a) does explicitly include inchoate crimes, see U.S.S.G.
    § 4B1.2(a) (“The term ‘crime of violence’ means any offense
    … that – (1) has as an element the use, attempted use, or
    threatened use of physical force against the person of
    another[.]” (emphasis added)), which further suggests that the
    omission of inchoate crimes from the very next subsection was
    intentional.
    That suggestion is separately bolstered by the fact that
    section 4B1.2(b) affirmatively lists many other offenses that do
    qualify as controlled substance offenses. As a familiar canon
    of construction states, expressio unius est exclusio alterius: the
    expression of one thing is the exclusion of the other. Applying
    that canon has led at least one court of appeals to conclude that
    section 4B1.2(b) does not include inchoate crimes. See United
    States v. Winstead, 
    890 F.3d 1082
    , 1091 (D.C. Cir. 2018)
    (“Section 4B1.2(b) presents a very detailed ‘definition’ of
    controlled substance offense that clearly excludes inchoate
    offenses.”).
    There is an important additional policy advantage to the
    plain-text approach: it protects the separation of powers. If we
    accept that the commentary can do more than interpret the
    guidelines, that it can add to their scope, we allow
    circumvention of the checks Congress put on the Sentencing
    Commission, a body that exercises considerable authority in
    setting rules that can deprive citizens of their liberty. Unlike
    the guidelines, the commentary “never passes through the
    gauntlets of congressional review or notice and comment.”
    United States v. Havis, 
    927 F.3d 382
    , 386 (6th Cir. 2019) (en
    banc) (per curiam); see also United States v. Swinton, 797 F.
    App’x 589, 602 (2d Cir. 2019) (quoting same and remanding
    25
    for resentencing with an instruction for the district court to
    “consider again whether, in light of the concerns addressed in
    Havis and Winstead, the career offender [g]uideline applies” to
    a defendant whose predicate offenses for the career offender
    enhancement include a conviction for attempted criminal sale
    of a controlled substance).
    On that basis, along with the plain text of the guidelines,
    another of our sister courts of appeals has rejected the notion
    that commentary to 4B1.2(b) can expand the guidelines’ scope.
    See Havis, 927 F.3d at 386. (Because it has not been approved
    by Congress, “commentary has no independent legal force—it
    serves only to interpret the [g]uidelines’ text, not to replace or
    modify it.”). We too agree that separation-of-powers concerns
    advise against any interpretation of the commentary that
    expands the substantive law set forth in the guidelines
    themselves.       Cf. 
    28 U.S.C. § 995
    (a)(20) (granting the
    Sentencing Commission power to “make recommendations to
    Congress concerning modification or enactment of statutes
    relating to sentencing[.]” (emphasis added)).
    In light of Kisor’s limitations on deference to
    administrative agencies, we conclude that inchoate crimes are
    not included in the definition of “controlled substance
    offenses” given in section 4B1.2(b) of the sentencing
    guidelines. Therefore, sitting en banc, we overrule Hightower,
    and accordingly, will vacate Nasir’s sentence and remand for
    resentencing without his being classified as a career offender.
    E.     The Felon-in-Possession Conviction
    The final issue on appeal concerns Nasir’s conviction
    under 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g) for being a felon in possession of a
    26
    firearm. After Nasir filed his opening brief, the Supreme Court
    decided Rehaif v. United States, holding that, “in a prosecution
    under … § 922(g) …, the Government must prove both that the
    defendant knew he possessed a firearm and that he knew he
    belonged to the relevant category of persons barred from
    possessing a firearm.” 139 S. Ct. at 2200. The latter half of
    that holding – that the government must prove that the
    defendant knew of his status as a person prohibited from
    having a gun – announced a newly found element of the crime.
    For a defendant like Nasir, a previously convicted felon, that
    knowledge-of-status element means that the government has to
    prove that he knew he was a “person … who has been
    convicted … of … a crime punishable by imprisonment for a
    term exceeding one year.” 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1). Proving
    that a felon knew he possessed a gun remains necessary but is
    no longer sufficient for a conviction. Proof of knowledge of
    status is now essential.
    Rehaif represents a reevaluation of an old and oft-
    invoked criminal statute. Nasir responded to the Supreme
    Court’s opinion by promptly filing a supplemental brief,
    arguing that his conviction as a felon in possession of a firearm
    cannot stand since the government did not provide any
    evidence to prove the knowledge-of-status element of the
    crime. He admits, though, that he did not voice an objection to
    that at trial. We therefore review for plain error.
    Again, the test for plain error under United States v.
    Olano proceeds in four steps and requires the defendant to
    prove that there was (1) an actual error (2) that is plain or
    obvious, (3) that affected “the outcome of the district court
    proceedings,” and (4) that “seriously affect[ed] the fairness,
    integrity or public reputation of judicial proceedings.” Olano,
    27
    
    507 U.S. at 734-36
     (citations omitted). Even if the first three
    steps of the test are met, the fourth step grants us a degree of
    discretion in determining whether to correct the error. 13
    Whether the alleged error is plain is evaluated based on the law
    at “the time of appellate review[,]” regardless of whether it was
    plain at the time of trial. Henderson v. United States, 
    568 U.S. 266
    , 269 (2013). The government concedes that, in light of
    Rehaif’s applicability in this case, Nasir has satisfied the first
    two steps of Olano. The dispute here is whether the third and
    fourth steps are satisfied.
    Before directly addressing those steps, however, it bears
    repeating that, until Rehaif, § 922(g) had not been understood
    as the Supreme Court interpreted it there. No knowledge-of-
    status element had previously been perceived in the statute, and
    13
    Our dissenting colleagues say that, in addressing
    whether to correct the conceded plain error in this case, we
    have failed to appreciate the purpose of plain error review
    under Federal Rule of Criminal Procedure 52(b). (Dissent at
    3-5.) In particular, the Dissent says that we “seem[] to suggest
    a presumption in favor of error-correction.” (Dissent at 5.) But
    we’ve said nothing of the sort. The import of our statement
    here should be clear: it is not enough to win on the first three
    prongs of Olano, because you can still lose at prong four. The
    implication is quite the opposite of what the Dissent attributes
    to us. The disagreement between our opinion and the Dissent
    hinges not on what Rule 52(b) means but, as we shall explain,
    on whether, given the type of error under consideration, we are
    free to look beyond the trial record when deciding if we should
    exercise our discretion under that rule.
    28
    no proof of it was required.14 It is hardly surprising, then, that
    the government did not offer any evidence at Nasir’s trial that
    14
    The Dissent implies that the knowledge-of-status
    element was somehow well known before Rehaif. But to say,
    as our dissenting colleagues do, that “the scienter issue was
    hardly a secret at the time of Nasir’s trial,” is to set up a straw
    man. (Dissent at 4.) It is true that scienter was understood to
    be a required point of proof in a § 922(g) prosecution, but the
    knowledge that had to be proven was the defendant’s
    knowledge that he possessed a firearm. While the Dissent has
    been able to identify a very few – three – dissenting opinions
    in appellate cases suggesting a knowledge-of-status element,
    such scienter was not a holding in any case, it appears, except
    for a single unreported district court case from many years ago.
    The small handful of judges who anticipated the Supreme
    Court’s turn by a dozen years deserve credit, but that hardly
    warrants the Dissent’s effort to paint the knowledge-of-status
    element as something that was current in conversation within
    the bench and bar. Far from it. As Justice Alito noted in his
    dissent in Rehaif, the Supreme Court majority in that watershed
    case “overturn[ed] the long-established interpretation of an
    important criminal statute, ... an interpretation that ha[d] been
    adopted by every single Court of Appeals to address the
    question” and an interpretation that “ha[d] been used in
    thousands of cases for more than 30 years.” 139 S. Ct. at 2201.
    So we think our emphasis on the unexpected and striking
    impact of Rehaif is fully justified.
    What is not justified is the Dissent’s suggestion that
    Nasir’s failure to object “deprived the government and trial
    court of … opportunities” to “supplement the record with
    additional evidence of Nasir’s mens rea.” (Dissent at
    5.) Regardless of whether the knowledge-of-status element
    29
    he knew he was a felon, and the District Court did not instruct
    the jury that such proof was necessary. Since Rehaif, the
    government has claimed that the evidence admitted at the trial
    in this case was adequate to prove that, when Nasir was found
    with guns in his possession, he knew he was a felon and hence
    a person prohibited from possessing a firearm. But, perhaps
    recognizing how unconvincing that characterization of the
    evidence is, the government has spent the majority of its efforts
    in this appeal on a more plausible but still ultimately
    unsuccessful argument: that, even if the record is devoid of
    proof on the knowledge-of-status element, we should not
    recognize and correct the error on plain-error review because
    Nasir surely did know that he was a felon.
    That brings us to the difficult and dividing issue in this
    case, one that has elicited a variety of responses from other
    courts of appeals dealing with the aftermath of Rehaif. The
    was widely recognized before Rehaif, the government’s burden
    of proving that element, and every other element of the
    § 922(g) charge, was the same. Nothing that Nasir did or didn’t
    do at trial affected that. Failure to object at trial begets plain-
    error review on appeal; it does not reverse the constitutionally
    mandated burden of proof and does not put the government on
    moral high ground in our assessment of the consequences of
    plain error, as the Dissent seems to think. If the Dissent wants
    to think in terms of fault – an exercise that seems unproductive,
    especially in light of the marked change in the law wrought by
    Rehaif – then surely some fault must fall on the government
    for failing to recognize that knowledge-of-status is an element
    of the offense and therefore failing to introduce evidence about
    Nasir’s knowledge of his prior felony.
    30
    assertion that Nasir knew he was a felon is founded entirely on
    information that his jury never saw or heard, so the question is
    whether an appellate court on plain-error review is restricted to
    the trial record or is instead free to consider evidence that was
    not presented to the jury. We conclude that, even on plain-
    error review, basic constitutional principles require us to
    consider only what the government offered in evidence at the
    trial, not evidence it now wishes it had offered. Accordingly,
    we will vacate Nasir’s conviction for being a felon in
    possession of a firearm and will remand for a new trial on that
    charge.15
    15
    Nasir raises three Rehaif-based challenges to his
    conviction: that the indictment was defective for omitting
    knowledge-of-status as an element of the crime, that the jury
    was not properly instructed that knowledge-of-status is an
    element of the crime, and that the government did not present
    sufficient evidence of knowledge-of-status. While we are
    persuaded by Nasir’s last argument and recognize some merit
    in the second, we see no merit at all in the first. The language
    of the indictment echoes the language of the statute, stating that
    Nasir “did knowingly possess in and affecting interstate and
    foreign commerce, firearms … after having been convicted of
    a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one
    year[.]” (App. at 40-41.) The indictment thus mirrors the
    language of the statute by listing the “knowingly” mens rea
    element first, allowing it to modify the other elements of the
    crime. See Hamling v. United States, 
    418 U.S. 87
    , 117 (1974)
    (“It is generally sufficient that an indictment set forth the
    offense in the words of the statute itself, as long as ‘those words
    of themselves fully, directly, and expressly, without any
    uncertainty or ambiguity, set forth all the elements necessary
    to constitute the offence intended to be punished.’” (quoting
    31
    1.     Due Process and the Right to Trial by
    Jury Limit our Review to the Trial
    Record
    As stated by the Supreme Court in In re Winship, “the
    Due Process Clause protects the accused against conviction
    except upon proof beyond a reasonable doubt of every fact
    necessary to constitute the crime with which he is charged.”
    
    397 U.S. 358
    , 364 (1970). The government has to prove its
    case to the “proper factfinder,” and “[d]ue process commands
    that no man shall lose his liberty unless the Government has
    borne the burden of … convincing the factfinder of his guilt.”
    
    Id.
     In the context of a jury trial such as Nasir’s, the
    requirements of due process are further bolstered by the Sixth
    Amendment, which allocates the role of “proper factfinder” to
    the jury, and to the jury alone. Indeed, going back at least as
    far as Blackstone, it has been a given that the jury – not
    appellate judges after the fact – must find “the truth of every
    accusation” for a conviction to be sustained.16 4 William
    United States v. Carll, 
    105 U.S. 611
    , 612 (1882)). Because the
    language of the indictment is not uncertain or ambiguous, there
    was no error, much less plain error, in allowing prosecution of
    the § 922(g) count of the indictment.
    16
    On this point, we are in full agreement with the
    concurrence of our colleague Judge Matey, which eloquently
    emphasizes the right to trial by jury. Although our colleagues
    in dissent say that they “do not purport to ‘find facts’ in order
    to overcome a deficiency in the evidence and on that basis
    pronounce the defendant’s conviction while relieving the
    government of its burden” (Dissent at 9), that is precisely the
    effect of their position. If no facts were given to the jury from
    32
    Blackstone, Commentaries on the Laws of England, *343-44.
    The jury has “an unquestionable right” to decide the case, “for,
    if the judge’s opinion must rule the verdict, the trial by jury
    would be useless.” Id. at *354-55. Accordingly, to secure a
    conviction that is consistent with its constitutional obligations,
    the government must present evidence to the jury to prove
    beyond a reasonable doubt every single element of the crime.
    Notably, no one questions that if we were reviewing a
    sufficiency-of-the-evidence objection that had been preserved
    at trial, our review would be confined to the trial record. Only
    evidence and argument that had actually been proffered would
    matter. That foundational point, rooted as it is in the Due
    Process Clause of the Fifth Amendment, serves as a bright-line
    rule, buttressed by the Sixth Amendment’s guarantee of trial
    by jury. The question before us thus becomes whether the
    plain-error standard of review permits us to disregard the
    demands of the Due Process Clause and the Sixth Amendment
    and to affirm a conviction when no evidence was presented to
    the jury on one of the elements of the charged offense. We
    think the answer to that question has to be no.
    To rule otherwise would give us free rein to speculate
    whether the government could have proven each element of
    the offense beyond a reasonable doubt at a hypothetical trial
    that established a different trial record. But no precedent of the
    Supreme Court or our own has ever sanctioned such an
    which the existence of an element of the charged crime can be
    determined, and if the appellate court then searches outside the
    trial record to discover facts that will fill that void, those
    appellate judges are indeed finding facts to decide the case.
    That is antithetical to the right to a jury trial.
    33
    approach. To the contrary, given the dictates of the Due
    Process Clause, as described in Winship, 
    397 U.S. at 364
    , our
    inquiry must necessarily focus on whether the
    government did prove – or at least introduced sufficient
    evidence to prove – each element of the offense beyond a
    reasonable doubt at the actual trial. And Nasir’s right to trial
    by jury reinforces that point: “Consistent with the jury-trial
    guarantee, the question [that precedent] instructs the reviewing
    court to consider is not what effect the constitutional error
    might generally be expected to have upon a reasonable jury,
    but rather what effect it had upon the guilty verdict in the case
    at hand.” Sullivan v. Louisiana, 
    508 U.S. 275
    , 280 (1993)
    (emphasis added).
    Plain error is a deferential standard, to be sure, but it
    does not alter fundamental constitutional precepts.17
    Accordingly, the Supreme Court has limited itself to the trial
    record in analogous cases. The exact procedural posture we
    are in now was present in Johnson v. United States, 
    520 U.S. 17
    This may be where our views and those of our
    dissenting colleagues diverge most dramatically. The Dissent
    says we are “fixate[d] on Winship’s requirement of proof
    beyond a reasonable doubt in criminal trials” and have a
    “misconception of plain-error review [that] infects [our] entire
    discussion of the record … .” (Dissent at 10.) Since Winship
    only said what the Constitution itself requires, the Dissent
    might just as well say we are fixated on the Constitution. The
    intimation is that, if we really understood plain-error review
    under Rule 52(b), we would not be so bothered by someone’s
    being convicted without a shred of proof having been
    introduced at trial on one of the elements of the charged
    offense.
    34
    461 (1997). The defendant in that case was convicted of
    perjury, but, before her direct appeal to the Eleventh Circuit
    was concluded, the Supreme Court handed down an opinion
    holding that the materiality of a false statement had to be
    decided by a jury rather than the trial judge. Id. at 463-64. The
    defendant had not objected at trial to the judge being the one
    who made the decision on materiality, because no one at the
    time knew there was such an objection to be made. Id. at 464.
    The Eleventh Circuit decided that the error inherent in the
    judge rather than the jury making the materiality decision did
    not affect the defendant’s substantial rights. Id. In other
    words, it decided the case at Olano step three. It made that
    decision, though, not in spite of a government failure to carry
    the constitutionally mandated burden of proof but precisely
    because the government had carried its burden so fully. As
    described by the Supreme Court, the Eleventh Circuit
    conducted an “independent review of the record and
    determin[ed] that … ‘overwhelming’ evidence of materiality”
    had been provided to the jury, so “[n]o reasonable juror” could
    have decided the materiality question in any way other than as
    the trial judge did. Id. at 465 (second alteration in original).
    The Supreme Court agreed with the outcome but took a
    different analytical path. It did not address the plain-error
    analysis in Johnson at Olano step three, as the court of appeals
    had. Instead, it went directly to step four, and, accepting that
    the evidence on materiality in the trial record was so
    “overwhelming” that a rational jury could not reach any
    conclusion but guilt, the Court decided that the fairness,
    integrity, and reputation of the judicial process could not be
    called into question by the conviction. Id. at 469-70. The
    argument for reversal on plain error failed, in other words,
    based on the trial record. Johnson thus highlights the
    35
    importance of the government carrying its constitutional
    burden at trial.18
    18
    The Dissent asserts that our “insistence that [the
    Olano] prong-four analysis is … limited to the time of trial (as
    memorialized in the trial record) is unwarranted and finds no
    support in Johnson.” (Dissent at 7-8.) We will leave to
    thoughtful readers to decide who has more faithfully
    considered the text of Johnson. Suffice it to say that our
    reading finds ample support in that text and makes perfect
    sense, particularly in light of later Supreme Court
    pronouncements, like those in Neder v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
     (1999).
    In Neder, a similar legal error was at issue. As in
    Johnson, the district court wrongly decided the issue of the
    materiality of false statements, this time in a case that included
    the filing of false tax returns. Over the defendant’s objection,
    the district judge had instructed the jury that the question of
    materiality was for the court alone to decide. Looking at the
    evidence produced by the government at trial, the trial judge
    found that “the evidence established the materiality of all the
    false statements at issue.” 
    Id. at 6
    . The Eleventh Circuit
    affirmed the conviction. On review, the Supreme Court
    applied the harmless-error standard from Chapman v.
    California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967), because the defendant had
    lodged an objection to the ruling at issue (in contrast to Nasir
    and the defendant in Johnson, both of whom were left with
    plain-error review because they failed to object). In the end,
    the Supreme Court said that the jury-instruction error was
    harmless because there was so much evidence of materiality in
    the trial record that “no jury could reasonably find that Neder’s
    failure to report substantial amounts of income … was not a
    ‘material matter.’” 
    527 U.S. at 16
    . So again, it was not in spite
    36
    Given the due process and Sixth Amendment concerns
    in play here, we are not free to suppose what the government
    could have proven at a different trial. The only relevant
    question, even on plain-error review, is what the government
    did prove at this trial. Nevertheless, while the constitutional
    implications of Rehaif seem clear to us, they are not beyond
    dispute, as the close division among us in this en banc appeal
    shows and as is further evidenced by decisions from our sister
    circuits.
    2.     The Differing Approaches of Other
    Courts of Appeals
    With one exception,19 other courts of appeals that have
    considered whether the government’s failure to prove the
    of the government’s failure to carry its burden of proof but
    rather because it had carried its burden so overwhelmingly that
    the Court upheld the conviction.
    19
    In United States v. Medley, 
    972 F.3d 399
     (4th Cir.
    2020), the Fourth Circuit vacated a defendant’s jury trial
    conviction on plain-error review after Rehaif because the
    indictment did not allege knowledge-of-status, the government
    had presented no evidence of knowledge-of-status at trial, and
    the jury was not instructed to find knowledge-of-status.
    However, the Court did not address the issue we confront here,
    namely whether we are restricted to the trial record on plain-
    error review of a jury conviction. It is noteworthy, though, that
    the majority in that case appeared to take it as given that it was
    limited to the trial record, 
    id. at 417
     (noting that the
    government “provided substantial post-trial evidence
    37
    knowledge-of-status element in a 922(g) prosecution is plain
    error have decided that it is not. They have reached that result
    based on their preliminary conclusion that they are permitted
    to look outside the trial record to find evidence to plug the gap
    left by the prosecution at trial. The justifications offered for
    that view are not all of a piece. See United States v.
    Huntsberry, 
    956 F.3d 270
    , 284 (5th Cir. 2020) (“We note that
    our sister courts have taken different paths on this issue.”).
    Under one line of thinking, the Supreme Court’s
    decision in United States v. Vonn, 
    535 U.S. 55
     (2002),
    authorizes consideration of the entire record, not just the trial
    record, at step three of plain-error review of a jury verdict, even
    though Vonn was decided in the context of a guilty plea.
    United States v. Ward, 
    957 F.3d 691
    , 695 & n.1 (6th Cir. 2020);
    United States v. Reed, 
    941 F.3d 1018
    , 1021 (11th Cir. 2019).
    A second rationale holds that a reviewing court is limited to the
    trial record on the first three steps of plain-error review but may
    look to the entire record at the fourth step, which involves the
    exercise of discretion in considering potential harm to the
    reputation of the judiciary. United States v. Owens, 
    966 F.3d 700
    , 706-07 (8th Cir. 2020); United States v. Maez, 
    960 F.3d 949
    , 961 (7th Cir. 2020); United States v. Miller, 
    954 F.3d 551
    ,
    supporting [the defendant’s] knowledge of his prohibited
    status” but “declin[ing] the Government’s invitation to engage
    in the level of judicial factfinding that would be required to
    affirm,” given the trial record), while the dissent appears to
    have assumed that it was not so limited, 
    id. at 419-20
    (Quattlebaum, J., dissenting) (asserting that the conviction
    should be sustained because the defendant had previously
    served more than twelve years in prison for second-degree
    murder, information that was not presented to the jury).
    38
    560 (2d Cir. 2020). We respectfully disagree with both of
    those perspectives, neither of which can comfortably co-exist
    with our own precedent, nor, to our thinking, with due process,
    the Sixth Amendment, or relevant Supreme Court authority.
    The trailblazer on the first path – the one resting on the
    Supreme Court’s decision in Vonn – was the Eleventh Circuit
    in United States v. Reed, a case initially decided on the basis of
    the pre-Rehaif state of the law. 941 F.3d at 1019. When the
    case reached the Supreme Court on certiorari, the Court
    vacated the judgment and sent the matter back for further
    proceedings consistent with Rehaif. Id. On remand, the
    Eleventh Circuit determined that, even though it was reviewing
    a conviction after a jury trial, it could nonetheless “consult the
    whole record when considering the effect of any error on [the
    defendant’s] substantial rights.” Id. at 1021. As authority for
    that premise, the Court cited Vonn, which held that, when a
    defendant has entered a guilty plea and later asserts on appeal
    that there was a failure to ensure the plea’s voluntariness
    through a colloquy under Rule 11 of the Federal Rules of
    Criminal Procedure,20 “a [previously] silent defendant has the
    burden to satisfy the plain-error rule and that a reviewing court
    may consult the whole record when considering the effect of
    any error on substantial rights.” 
    535 U.S. at 59
    ; see Reed, 941
    F.3d at 1021. Other circuits have cited Reed for the premise
    that, on plain-error review, an appeals court may satisfy itself
    of an element with evidence that was never presented to a jury.
    20
    Under Rule 11, if the defendant has pled guilty, “the
    court must address the defendant personally in open court and
    determine that the plea is voluntary and did not result from
    force, threats, or promises (other than promises in a plea
    agreement).” Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(b)(2).
    39
    See United States v. Mancillas, 789 F. App’x 549, 550 (7th Cir.
    2020); cf. Ward, 957 F.3d at 695 n.1 (6th Cir. 2020) (citing
    Vonn, 
    535 U.S. at 59
    ).
    The problem with Reed and the cases that follow it,
    however, is that Vonn involved review of the voluntariness of
    a guilty plea, a procedural posture that is completely unlike the
    review of a conviction following trial. In Vonn, the Supreme
    Court held that, in ascertaining the adequacy of a Rule 11
    colloquy, a reviewing court may look beyond the colloquy to
    the record created at a defendant’s initial appearance and
    arraignment “[b]ecause … defendants may be presumed to
    recall information provided to them prior to the plea
    proceeding[.]” Vonn, 
    535 U.S. at 75
    . The focus was,
    appropriately, on the information known to the defendant at the
    time of the plea because, when a defendant pleads guilty, the
    district court must ensure that the plea is knowing and
    voluntary. That’s the job at the plea stage because it is what
    due process demands in that context. McCarthy v. United
    States, 
    394 U.S. 459
    , 466 (1969) (“[I]f a defendant’s guilty
    plea is not equally voluntary and knowing, it has been obtained
    in violation of due process and is therefore void.”). And the
    reviewing court’s job is to make sure of the same thing, which
    makes it logical to look at what a defendant was told at earlier
    stages of the criminal proceedings.
    The question is quite different when reviewing whether
    the government has borne at a trial – or even at a plea
    proceeding21 – its burden to “convince the trier [of fact] of all
    21
    Because we of course acknowledge that a guilty plea
    must be knowing and voluntary, the Dissent concludes that we
    are “comfortable inferring a defendant’s knowledge-of-felon
    40
    the essential elements of guilt.” Winship, 
    397 U.S. at 361
    (citation omitted). In that procedural setting, due process and
    Sixth Amendment considerations compel us to focus our
    inquiry on the information presented to the trier of fact – in this
    case, the jury. Vonn is inapposite where, as here, we are
    concerned not with the facts possessed by the defendant and
    their effect on the voluntariness of his plea but with the
    information presented to the fact-finder to prove an element of
    the charged offense. Put differently, when there has been a
    plea rather than a trial, no one is concerned about or mentions
    the adequacy of the trial record because there is none.
    Likewise, however, when there has been a trial and an utter
    status from his prior guilty plea.” (Dissent at 12 n.5.) The
    Dissent therefore faults us for refusing to consider Nasir’s three
    prior guilty pleas – especially one for a felon-in-possession
    charge. That conviction is one that our colleagues especially
    emphasize as a “central reason” not to correct the plain error
    here. (Dissent at 12 n.5.) But the fact that a guilty plea must
    be knowing and voluntary has no bearing on whether we may
    consider a guilty plea that was never presented to the jury.
    What divides us has nothing to do with the strength of the
    evidence outside the trial record. It has everything to do with
    whether, consistent with constitutional safeguards, we can
    properly go outside the trial record. And to the extent the
    Dissent suggests that the government is free to ignore the
    elements of the charged offense at a plea colloquy, we disagree
    with that as well. The government must always make a record
    demonstrating a factual basis for the crime to which the plea is
    entered.
    41
    failure of proof is at issue, it is simply beside the point to rely
    on case law dealing with the voluntariness of plea colloquies.22
    22
    The Dissent asserts that United States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
     (1985), supports its position, and the position taken in
    Reed, 941 F.3d at 1020-21, that we must consider evidence
    outside the trial record when applying Olano step four.
    (Dissent at 15.) Not so. Although Young does refer to “the
    entire record,” it does so in a way that, in context, makes plain
    that what the Supreme Court was referring to was the entire
    trial record. The full quote from Young reads as follows:
    Especially when addressing plain error, a
    reviewing court cannot properly evaluate a case
    except by viewing such a claim against the entire
    record. We have been reminded: “In reviewing
    criminal cases, it is particularly important for
    appellate courts to relive the whole trial
    imaginatively and not to extract from episodes in
    isolation abstract questions of evidence and
    procedure. To turn a criminal trial into a quest
    for error no more promotes the ends of justice
    than to acquiesce in low standards of criminal
    prosecution.” It is simply not possible for an
    appellate court to assess the seriousness of the
    claimed error by any other means.
    
    470 U.S. at 16
     (emphasis added) (internal citation and
    quotation marks omitted).
    Far from supporting the Dissent or Reed, that statement
    emphasizes that our focus is supposed to be on the actual field
    of play – the trial – to see whether the government has fulfilled
    its constitutional obligations in a way that preserves the
    fairness and integrity of the prosecution and maintains the
    confidence of the public. The trial record is the only place to
    42
    The second rationale adopted by some courts for going
    beyond the trial record acknowledges that a reviewing court is
    restricted to the trial record at the first three steps of plain-error
    review, but then holds that the fourth step changes the scope of
    review. Since the fourth step of Olano calls for the exercise of
    discretion, and since that discretion must account for potential
    harm to the reputation of the judiciary, those courts say it is
    fine to look outside the trial record because the public will. The
    reasoning is, in effect, that the defendant is obviously guilty
    and the justice system will not appear to have served justice if,
    through no fault of the prosecution, the defendant is freed on
    the technicality that proof of a previously unknown element of
    the offense was not offered in evidence.23
    which one rightly can look if what is being considered is the
    trial supposedly under review. For purposes of Olano step
    four, and for this type of error, the trial is the only judicial
    proceeding at issue.
    23
    Applying a different version of this approach, the
    Fifth Circuit at first declined to answer whether it was limited
    to the trial record on plain-error review but determined that it
    could judicially recognize facts at the fourth step of plain-error
    review, including a defendant’s prior state convictions. See
    Huntsberry, 956 F.3d at 285-86. Subsequently, however, the
    Fifth Circuit decided that it is permitted to look outside the trial
    record at the fourth step. See United States v. Staggers, 
    961 F.3d 745
    , 756 (5th Cir. 2020); see also United States v. Burden,
    
    964 F.3d 339
    , 348 n.8 (5th Cir. 2020). In another post-Rehaif
    case, the First Circuit similarly indicated that judicial notice
    might be a proper path to resolution, but in the end, it did not
    take that path. United States v. Lara, --- F.3d ---, Nos. 17-1957,
    43
    The Second Circuit took essentially that approach in
    United States v. Miller. In analyzing a Rehaif challenge to jury
    instructions, the court decided that “the substantial-rights
    analysis [, i.e., the Olano step three question,] in [the
    defendant’s] case is a difficult one, given the paucity of factual
    development at trial pertaining to a question that was not
    discerned before Rehaif was decided.” 954 F.3d at 559.
    Because the step-three question was difficult, the court chose
    “to resolve [the] case on the fourth prong of plain-error
    review[,] … which does not necessarily confine us to the trial
    record.” Id. The court cited no authority for that postulate
    about being free to roam beyond the trial record. It asserted it
    and then, noting that the presentence investigation report
    provided ample evidence that the defendant must have known
    he was a felon, and referencing his stipulation at trial,
    concluded that the fairness and integrity of the judicial system
    would not be questioned, even though there was a “paucity” of
    evidence of his guilt presented at trial. Id. at 559-60.
    The Seventh Circuit has adopted the same kind of
    approach. In United States v. Maez, it began by explaining why
    Vonn is not applicable when reviewing jury convictions,
    17-1964, 
    2020 WL 4668535
    , at *13 (1st Cir. Aug. 12, 2020)
    (noting that “the government had available to it evidence of
    [the defendant’s] four recent and serious convictions from
    Maine,” and although it did not present that evidence at trial,
    “we regularly take judicial notice of … state court records
    given their presumed reliability”). For the reasons discussed
    herein, however, we are unpersuaded that judicial notice can
    properly be used as a means to circumvent a defendant’s rights
    to due process and trial by jury.
    44
    distinguishing that case as we have above and saying, “[t]he
    Supreme Court has made clear that harmless-error analysis
    [performed at Olano step three] looks only to the trial record
    to measure the effect of trial error.” Maez, 960 F.3d at 961. It
    reasoned that such a “restriction to the jury record flows
    logically from the nature of a substantial-rights inquiry on
    direct review.” Id. When asking whether a trial error affected
    substantial rights, “[t]he more abstract question of the
    defendant’s actual guilt or innocence is not the issue. Rather,
    the appellate court asks what effect the error could have had on
    the verdict in the trial actually conducted.” Id. But the court
    then decided that, because the fourth step of plain-error review
    is a separate, discretionary step, reviewing courts may, and
    perhaps should, consider claims of actual innocence. Id. at
    962. Having determined that appellate courts “have broad
    discretion under prong four to leave even plain errors
    uncorrected where we have no doubt as to the ultimate result
    of further proceedings[,]” the court decided that step-four
    “discretion necessarily implies some power to look beyond the
    trial record to assess an error’s effect, at least for the errors
    argued here, where … [Old Chief] prevented the government
    from offering a great deal of circumstantial evidence showing”
    knowledge-of-status.24 Id. at 963. The only authority cited for
    looking beyond the trial record was the Second Circuit’s
    decision in Miller.25 Id.
    24
    Subsequently, the Seventh Circuit has exercised its
    discretion to recognize the plain error in a post-Rehaif
    challenge to a § 922(g) conviction. See United States v. Cook,
    
    970 F.3d 866
     (7th Cir. 2020).
    25
    The First Circuit has also recently joined the ranks of
    the Second and Seventh Circuits, saying that “the Supreme
    45
    Court has never suggested that we are categorically barred
    from taking into account evidence not introduced at trial in
    considering whether an instructional error satisfies the fourth
    prong of plain-error review.” Lara, 
    2020 WL 4668535
    , at *
    13. Although the Court acknowledged the due process
    concerns in “revis[ing] the basis on which a defendant is
    convicted simply because the same result would likely obtain
    on retrial,” 
    id. at *14
     (citation omitted), it nonetheless
    characterized a reversal in this context as “wasteful” and
    declined to exercise its discretion to notice the error on the
    fourth prong of plain-error review, 
    id. at *13-14
    .
    Similarly, the Ninth Circuit has decided that
    examination of evidence outside the trial record is permissible
    to avoid “wasteful reversals.” United States v. Johnson, No.
    17-10252, 
    2020 WL 6268027
    , at *4 (9th Cir. Oct. 26, 2020)
    (quoting United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 82
    (2004)). The court’s Johnson decision had an earlier iteration
    in which the expressed rationale for looking outside the trial
    record was the availability of a retrial in the case and the court’s
    conclusion (suspect, in our view) that the Double Jeopardy
    Clause is the source of the ordinary prohibition on going
    beyond the trial record when conducting appellate review.
    United States v. Johnson, 
    963 F.3d 847
    , 851 (9th Cir. 2020)
    (vacated). While the unusual Double Jeopardy rationale may
    have made a cameo appearance in the most recent version of
    Johnson, see 
    2020 WL 6268027
    , at *4 (“To satisfy the fourth
    prong when a retrial would be permissible, a defendant must
    offer a plausible basis for concluding that an error-free retrial
    might end more favorably.” (emphasis added)), the court’s
    stated basis for looking past the government’s proof at trial is
    now more in line with the Olano prong four analysis in Miller
    and Maez.
    46
    Our disagreement with this fourth-step approach is that
    it treats judicial discretion as powerful enough to override the
    defendant’s right to put the government to its proof when it has
    charged him with a crime.26 We do not think judicial discretion
    trumps that constitutional right, and neither Miller nor Maez
    cite any pre-Rehaif authority supporting a contrary conclusion.
    Moreover, those decisions and the ones that follow them are
    independently troubling to the extent they imply that relief on
    26
    As discussed below, we think the existence of an Old
    Chief stipulation has little relevance to the analysis and, thus,
    disagree with the Seventh Circuit’s conclusion that it was
    justified in straying from the trial record on that basis. To the
    extent that either the Second or Seventh Circuit (or any other
    court of appeals) sought to make a broader point that going
    beyond the trial record was permissible because the
    government presented all of the evidence it needed to, given
    the state of the law prior to Rehaif, our views again diverge.
    Whether fair to the government or not, it does not matter that
    the change in the law came after trial. The Supreme Court has
    said that the error must be measured based on the law at the
    time of appeal. See Henderson, 
    568 U.S. at 273
     (“Johnson
    explicitly rejects applying the words ‘plain error’ as of the time
    when the trial judge acted. Instead, Johnson deems it ‘enough
    that an error be “plain” at the time of appellate consideration’
    for that error to fall within Rule 52(b)’s category of ‘plain
    error.’” (quoting Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at 468
    )). There will be
    cases that fall in the gap between the state of the law at trial
    and the state of the law on appeal. This is one.
    47
    plain-error review is available only to the innocent.27 That is a
    proposition the Supreme Court put to rest in Rosales-Mireles
    v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
     (2018), when it observed that
    “Olano rejected a narrower rule that would have called for
    relief only … where a defendant is actually innocent.” 
    Id. at 1906
    .
    And as for any objection that technicalities can be
    overlooked on plain-error review, we do not accept that the
    question of whether we are confined to the trial record is a mere
    technicality. It is, in our view, a matter of the highest
    importance. The word “technicality” is too often used to
    denigrate a principle that stands between an advocate and a
    preferred result. “All law is technical if viewed solely from
    27
    The Dissent suggests the same. Indeed, the consistent
    theme of the Dissent is that, when evidence outside the trial
    record is considered, it is so obvious that Nasir is guilty that we
    are “profoundly mistaken” (Dissent at 1) in “persist[ing]” in
    our desire to correct a plain error of constitutional magnitude
    that has affected Nasir’s substantial rights. (Dissent at 24.)
    “[I]n the face of overwhelming, reliable information
    supporting Nasir’s conviction” (Dissent at 24), our persistence
    is explained as “a reflexive inclination … to reverse because of
    unpreserved error[.]” (Dissent at 24 (quoting Puckett v. United
    States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 134 (2009)).) Our view, however, is
    more reflective than reflexive and is consistent with the
    Supreme Court’s instruction that “the public legitimacy of our
    justice system relies on procedures that are neutral, accurate,
    consistent, trustworthy, and fair, and that provide opportunities
    for error correction.” Rosales-Mireles v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    , 1908 (2018) (internal quotation marks and citation
    omitted).
    48
    concern for punishing crime without heeding the mode by
    which it is accomplished.” Bollenbach v. United States, 
    326 U.S. 607
    , 614-15 (1946). The Constitution puts procedural
    safeguards in place to protect against just such an approach.
    Given the imperative of due process, and “[i]n view of the
    place of importance that trial by jury has in our Bill of Rights,”
    it should not be supposed that “the belief of appellate judges in
    the guilt of an accused, however justifiably engendered by the
    dead record, [can be substituted] for ascertainment of guilt by
    a jury under appropriate judicial guidance, however
    cumbersome that process may be.” 
    Id. at 615
    .
    In sum, we disagree with both variants of the rationales
    that other courts of appeals have adopted to justify unmooring
    themselves from the trial record when conducting plain-error
    review.28 Given our view of the due process and jury trial
    28
    The Dissent relies heavily on the several cases we
    have just discussed and others following them, counting the
    number of courts and judges and asking, “[h]ow could so many
    federal judges approve the obvious violation of important Fifth
    Amendment and Sixth Amendment rights?” (Dissent at 16.)
    We are certainly aware that thoughtful people can analyze the
    plain-error conundrum here differently than we have. But then,
    not long ago, there was a contrary consensus that plain-error
    relief is warranted when the trial record is “devoid of
    evidence.” See United States v. Castro, 
    704 F.3d 125
    , 138 (3d
    Cir. 2013) (citation omitted) (collecting cases). More to the
    point, however, we are making an independent judgment, as
    we are required to do, and counting up judges who see the issue
    differently does not alter our obligation. The answer to the old
    saw that “fifty million Frenchmen can’t be wrong” is yes, they
    can. Rehaif itself is an example of everyone except the
    49
    rights at issue, our analysis of Nasir’s claim of plain error will
    be confined to the trial record and the evidence the government
    actually presented to the jury.
    3.      Applying Plain-Error Review
    Turning to the trial record, and with the first two steps
    of the plain-error test from Olano not in dispute, the only
    questions left for our consideration are whether the admitted
    plain error of a conviction on proof of less than all of the
    elements of the 922(g) charge affected Nasir’s substantial
    rights (Olano step three) and whether we should exercise our
    discretion to notice the error (Olano step four). On this record,
    the answer to both questions is yes.29
    Supreme Court seeing an issue the same way and, given the
    Supreme Court’s position in our judicial hierarchy, all of them
    being wrong.
    29
    That is not to say that all post-Rehaif cases should be
    resolved in favor of the defendant. Despite the Dissent’s
    assertions to the contrary, we are not advocating nor effectively
    establishing a per se rule. Each case must be decided on its
    own facts. For example, there have been cases where sufficient
    evidence was presented at trial to show that the defendant was
    aware of his status as a felon at the time of the crime. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Moss, 812 F. App’x 108, 111 (4th Cir. 2020)
    (rejecting a Rehaif-based challenge because “[d]uring his
    direct testimony, [the defendant] stated that he was well aware
    of his prohibited status because of his prior convictions.”);
    United States v. Velázquez-Aponte, 
    940 F.3d 785
    , 800 (1st Cir.
    2019) (reciting evidence supporting a § 922(g) conviction after
    Rehaif and noting that, at trial, “the government submitted a
    50
    a)     Olano step three
    To show that an error affected his substantial rights,
    Nasir must “‘show a reasonable probability that, but for the
    error,’ the outcome of the proceeding would have been
    different.”30 Molina-Martinez v. United States, 136 S. Ct.
    certified copy of a prior Puerto Rico court judgment reflecting
    that [the defendant] was convicted of a felony in state court” at
    trial and “read portions of it to the jury,” including the
    sentence). The Dissent asserts that these cases are “inapposite”
    because they did not feature Old Chief stipulations. (Dissent
    at 14.) But whether there is an Old Chief stipulation is
    irrelevant. Old Chief was explicit that it does not prevent the
    introduction of evidence of a prior conviction “for any purpose
    beyond proving status,” 519 U.S. at 190, so proving knowledge
    of status was never forbidden by Old Chief and is expressly
    sanctioned by Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b), which states
    that “[e]vidence of a crime, wrong, or other act is … admissible
    for … proving … knowledge[.]” Therefore, as explained
    further herein, Old Chief stipulations do not prevent the
    government from introducing knowledge-of-status evidence,
    as is evident from their continued use post-Rehaif. The Dissent
    engages in pure speculation when it insists that, but for the
    stipulation in this case, the government would have introduced
    such evidence, or that the trial court would have sustained an
    objection to it. (See Dissent at 14-15.)
    30
    Although we agree with Nasir that his conviction
    under § 922(g) was plainly erroneous after Rehaif, we do not
    agree with his assertion that the error was structural. The
    Supreme Court has said that “structural errors are a very
    51
    1338, 1343 (2016) (quoting United States v. Dominguez
    Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 76 (2004)). As to his sufficiency-of-the-
    evidence challenge,31 we ask whether the evidence the
    government presented at trial would have been sufficient to
    sustain a conviction on the knowledge-of-status element.
    Because literally no evidence was presented concerning
    Nasir’s knowledge of his status as a felon, it is at least
    limited class of errors[.]” United States v. Marcus, 
    560 U.S. 258
    , 263 (2010) (citation and internal quotation marks
    omitted). Those circumstances are not present here, and we are
    not inclined to extend the structural error doctrine. We have
    already said that “[t]rial errors resulting from a failure to
    submit an element of an offense to the jury are not structural
    defects, but instead, are subject to harmless or plain error
    analysis.” United States v. Vazquez, 
    271 F.3d 93
    , 103 (3d Cir.
    2001) (en banc). That is consistent with the Supreme Court’s
    decisions in Neder and Johnson, which held that a judge’s
    mistake in taking from the jury the responsibility to determine
    the existence of an element of the crime was not structural
    error. (See supra II.E.1.)
    31
    Nasir also alleges plain error with respect to the jury
    instruction on the elements of a § 922(g) offense, but we need
    not consider those arguments, given our disposition of the
    sufficiency-of-the-evidence challenge. Failure to instruct the
    jury as to an element of the crime is trial error, and “[t]he
    prosecution therefore is free to retry [the] defendant.”
    McMullen v. Tennis, 
    562 F.3d 231
    , 237 (3d Cir. 2009); see also
    United States v. Cohen, 
    301 F.3d 152
    , 158 (3d Cir. 2002)
    (Alito, J.) (“The usual remedy for an error in a jury instruction
    is retrial[.]”).
    52
    reasonably probable, if not certain, that the jury would not have
    found there was proof beyond a reasonable doubt of the
    knowledge-of-status element, if it had known it was required
    to consider that element.
    The government nevertheless argues that the situation
    here calls for a different result because the defendant stipulated
    that he was a felon, pursuant to Old Chief, 
    519 U.S. 172
    .
    According to the government, it was prohibited from giving
    any further details about Nasir’s criminal record, so it could not
    have adduced evidence that he knew of his status. That
    argument echoes a concern raised by Justice Alito in his dissent
    in Rehaif, in which he said that, now that the government has
    to prove knowledge-of-status, “under … [Old Chief], it is
    questionable whether a defendant, by offering to stipulate that
    he has a prior conviction, can prevent the prosecution from
    offering evidence about the nature of that offense. And the
    admission of that information may work to a § 922(g)
    defendant’s detriment.” Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2209
     (Alito, J.,
    dissenting). We understand Justice Alito as making the point
    that discovering a knowledge-of-status element in § 922(g)
    was potentially inconsistent with the protections the Supreme
    Court intended Old Chief to extend to defendants, and that
    inconsistency, Justice Alito indicated, stood as another reason
    why the Court’s interpretation of § 922(g) in Rehaif was
    incorrect.
    We do not, however, read anything in Rehaif, or Old
    Chief itself, as suggesting that the government could not have
    introduced knowledge-of-status evidence at trial. To the
    contrary, the Supreme Court was explicit in Old Chief that its
    restrictions on evidence concerning the defendant’s previous
    felony applied “only when the record of conviction would not
    53
    be admissible for any purpose beyond proving status,” so that
    “if, indeed, there were a justification for receiving evidence of
    [the conviction] on some issue other than status (i.e., to prove
    . . . ‘knowledge, . . .’), [then Federal Rule of Evidence] 404(b)
    [would] guarantee[] the opportunity to seek its admission.”
    519 U.S. at 190 (emphasis added).
    Nor did Old Chief preclude adding a simple knowledge-
    of-status statement to the stipulations the government regularly
    enters with defendants in § 922(g) cases. By its plain terms,
    Old Chief only prevents the government from presenting
    evidence about the name or nature of the defendant’s prior
    felony conviction. A knowledge-of-status statement included
    in a stipulation addresses neither of those things. Indeed, such
    additional language need not reveal any information about a
    defendant’s felonious past, only that he was aware of it at the
    time of the offense under consideration. Events in the real
    world bear that out. As the Seventh Circuit has noted, “[i]n the
    wake of Rehaif, defendants and the government have begun
    agreeing to modified Old Chief stipulations that also include
    knowledge of felon status.” Maez, 960 F.3d at 959.
    The government also argues that a fair inference,
    especially on plain-error review, is that Nasir’s
    acknowledgement of his conviction in the Old Chief
    stipulation32 means he also acknowledged he knew of his status
    as a felon ever since becoming one. But Rehaif itself blocks
    32
    For the language of the stipulation in its entirety, see
    supra note 3.
    54
    that line of reasoning.33 The Supreme Court said there that it
    did not believe “Congress would have expected defendants
    under § 922(g) … to know their own status[ ].” Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2197
    . If one were to conclude otherwise, the Court said,
    “these provisions might apply to a person who was convicted
    of a prior crime but sentenced only to probation, who does not
    know that the crime is ‘punishable by imprisonment for a term
    exceeding one year.’” 
    Id. at 2198
     (quoting 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1)).
    In the natural course, a defendant agrees to an Old Chief
    stipulation after having committed the crime of unlawfully
    possessing a firearm. Nasir’s stipulation, for example, post-
    dates his offense by sixteen months. All the stipulation
    demonstrates is that he knew he was a felon at the time he
    signed the stipulation; based on the stipulation alone, it cannot
    rightly be said that he knew of his status as a felon when he
    possessed the firearms at issue.34 In other words, a stipulation
    33
    That is not to say that the government’s argument is
    without support. See Ward, 957 F.3d at 696 (“A rational juror
    could also have inferred that [the defendant] knew he was a
    felon when he possessed the gun. [He] made an Old Chief
    stipulation at trial, pursuant to which he acknowledged that he
    ‘was a convicted felon on and prior to the date of the charged
    conduct[.]’ [His] lawyer also told the jury that [the defendant]
    was ‘stipulating that he has a felony. So you can check that
    one off the box.’ The jury could have inferred from these
    statements that [the defendant] also knew that he was a
    felon.”).
    34
    While the Dissent agrees that the stipulation does not
    “necessarily prove that [Nasir] knew he was a felon when he
    55
    of the sort submitted in this case will not, on its own, suffice to
    prove that, at the relevant time, the defendant had knowledge
    of his status as a person prohibited to possess a firearm.35
    was arrested with the gun[,]” it nonetheless asserts that “[a]
    thoughtful observer drawing upon her reason, experience, and
    common sense might easily infer from Nasir’s June 2017
    stipulation that he knew of his felon status when apprehended
    with a gun in December 2015.” (Dissent at 19-20 n.9.) How a
    thoughtful observer would get to that conclusion at all, let
    alone easily, can only be explained by going outside the trial
    record. On the basis of what is in that record, only an illogical
    leap could get to that conclusion. Again, Nasir entered into his
    Old Chief stipulation long after he was apprehended with the
    guns, and he stipulated only that he was a felon; he did not
    stipulate to his state of knowledge at the time of the alleged
    crime. A thoughtful observer, therefore, would not – indeed
    could not – rightly infer knowledge-of-status at the relevant
    time from the Old Chief stipulation, either alone or in
    combination with anything else the Dissent can point to. There
    simply is no basis for that inference in the trial record.
    35
    The government also argues that, because Nasir
    agreed to an Old Chief stipulation, the situation is analogous to
    one where the defendant invited the error. But that argument
    is a non-starter since, under our precedent, the invited-error
    doctrine does not apply where the law changes between trial
    and appeal. United States v. Andrews, 
    681 F.3d 509
    , 517 n.4
    (3d Cir. 2012); United States v. West Indies Transp., Inc., 
    127 F.3d 299
    , 305 (3d Cir. 1997).
    56
    The government tries to get around its lack of evidence
    by saying that, at trial, it showed Nasir was furtive about his
    drug dealing and so he must have known when he possessed
    his guns that he was a convicted felon.36 But the inference
    simply does not follow. Criminal behavior is nearly always
    furtive; it’s in the very nature of the thing. Criminals know
    enough to hide their criminality, if they can. Nasir’s
    furtiveness proves only that he knew his drug dealing could get
    him into trouble, not that he knew he was a previously
    convicted felon.37 If the government’s argument were
    accepted, prosecutors in a typical case involving drugs and
    guns could put on no more evidence than was offered before
    Rehaif and then, by calling the defendant’s behavior furtive,
    gain a conviction. That would render Rehaif a nullity and is
    36
    Specifically, the government points to “the evidence
    of subterfuge involving the use of the separate storage facility
    to store drugs and drug paraphernalia [and] the fact that he had
    a secondary vehicle in which he had an arsenal of five
    semiautomatic firearms.” (En Banc Oral Argument at
    1:03:45–1:04:35; see also App. at 393–94 (trial testimony
    describing Nasir’s behavior at the storage facility as involving
    “frequent visits” to a “small unit” where Nasir “would go
    inside and come back out”).)
    37
    The government further argues that the fact Nasir kept
    his weapons hidden and locked in the trunk of his car shows he
    knew he was prohibited from possessing firearms. If we were
    to accept that argument, it might imply that a gun owner who
    responsibly keeps his guns safely locked away is somehow
    admitting his ownership of them is illicit. We think the
    inference unwarranted.
    57
    obviously not an option. Rehaif declares knowledge of status
    to be an element of a § 922(g) offense, and that cannot be
    ignored.
    The Fourth Circuit has recently come to the same
    conclusion. In United States v. Medley, 
    972 F.3d 399
     (4th Cir.
    2020), it recognized plain error when the government
    presented no evidence to sustain a conviction on the
    knowledge-of-status element. 38 
    Id. at 402-03
    . There too, the
    government asserted that the defendant’s Old Chief stipulation
    was evidence of knowledge-of-status, as was his “attempt to
    evade the police[.]” 
    Id. at 414-15
    . The court disagreed, noting
    that “[i]nferring that someone knew he was prohibited from
    possessing a firearm at the time of the offense based on a
    stipulation at trial that he was in fact a prohibited person would
    render the Supreme Court’s language in Rehaif pointless.” 
    Id. at 414
    . It also noted that the defendant’s “attempt to evade the
    police … does not indicate—much less overwhelmingly
    prove—that he knew his prohibited status under federal law.”
    
    Id. at 415
    .
    38
    In Medley, the Fourth Circuit found plain error and
    prejudice in the indictment, in the jury instructions, and in the
    sufficiency of the evidence presented at trial. 
    Id. at 419
    . It then
    exercised its discretion to recognize the error at step four of
    plain-error review, in light of the cumulative effect of those
    three errors. 
    Id.
     Rather than delving into our agreements or
    disagreements with the majority and dissenting opinions in that
    case, we note that we certainly agree with the foundation of the
    majority’s analytical approach – that due process and the right
    to a jury trial are implicated here.
    58
    As was the Fourth Circuit in Medley, we are faced here
    with a case in which there is no evidence at all on an essential
    element of the felon-in-possession charge, and yet the case was
    submitted to the jury and there was a conviction. We have said
    in unmistakable terms that “affirming a conviction where the
    government has failed to prove each essential element of the
    crime beyond a reasonable doubt ‘affect[s] substantial
    rights[.]’” United States v. Gaydos, 
    108 F.3d 505
    , 509 (3d Cir.
    1997) (quoting Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 732
    ) (first alteration in
    original). That conclusion is “consistent with the Supreme
    Court’s instruction that due process requires ‘proof beyond a
    reasonable doubt of every fact necessary to constitute the crime
    with which [the defendant] is charged.’” United States v.
    Xavier, 
    2 F.3d 1281
    , 1287 (3d Cir. 1993) (quoting Winship,
    
    397 U.S. at 364
    .). Nasir’s substantial rights were thus
    definitely affected by his conviction upon proof of less than all
    of the elements of the offense outlawed by § 922(g), and he has
    carried his burden at Olano step three.
    b)      Olano step four
    The final question, at Olano step four, is whether we
    should exercise our discretion to notice the error because it is
    of a sort that would “seriously affect the fairness, integrity, or
    public reputation of judicial proceedings.” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 736
    . Given the significant due process and Sixth Amendment
    concerns at issue, which we have already discussed at length,
    we are convinced that it is indeed that sort of error.
    The Supreme Court recently affirmed in Rosales-
    Mireles that an error need not “shock the conscience” or
    amount to a “powerful indictment of the system” to be “worthy
    of correction” at step four of a plain-error analysis. 
    138 S. Ct. 59
    at 1906-07 (internal quotation marks omitted). Again, the
    Court said that “Olano rejected a narrower rule that would have
    called for relief only” in cases “where a defendant is actually
    innocent.” 
    Id. at 1906
    . It recognized instead “a broader
    category of errors that warrant correction on plain-error
    review.” 
    Id.
     Innocence or guilt, insofar as we may think we
    apprehend them based on the trial record, may have relevance,
    but our analysis at the fourth step “focus[es] … on principles
    of fairness, integrity, and public reputation[.]” 
    Id.
    That means that sometimes the errors to be corrected are
    “inadvertent or unintentional errors of the court or the parties
    below.” 
    Id.
     In Rosales-Mireles, the error was the District
    Court’s miscalculation of the guidelines range at sentencing.
    
    Id. at 1905
    . Such errors had already been recognized as being
    likely to affect a defendant’s substantial rights, when
    considered under the third step of plain-error review. See
    Molina-Martinez, 136 S. Ct. at 1345 (“When a defendant is
    sentenced under an incorrect [g]uidelines range—whether or
    not the defendant’s ultimate sentence falls within the correct
    range—the error itself can, and most often will, be sufficient to
    show a reasonable probability of a different outcome absent the
    error.”). The Supreme Court extended that reasoning to Olano
    step four, saying that “‘[t]o a prisoner,’ th[e] prospect of
    additional ‘time behind bars is not some theoretical or
    mathematical concept’ … [and] thus warrants serious
    consideration in a determination whether to exercise discretion
    under Rule 52(b).” Rosales-Mireles, 138 S.C.t at 1907
    (quoting Barber v. Thomas, 
    560 U.S. 474
    , 504 (2010)
    (Kennedy, J., dissenting)). The Court observed that “[i]t is
    crucial in maintaining public perception of fairness and
    integrity in the justice system that courts exhibit regard for
    60
    fundamental rights and respect for prisoners as people.” Id. at
    1907 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    If a guidelines miscalculation warrants recognition of
    plain error, surely a plain error of constitutional dimension
    going to the conviction itself deserves to be recognized and
    corrected.39 Nasir was deprived of the right to have a jury
    39
    We do not suggest, as the Dissent contends, that
    “plain-error review is inapplicable whenever important
    constitutional rights are at issue.” (Dissent at 11 n.4.) Instead,
    we faithfully apply our discretion at Olano step four within the
    confines of the trial record, evaluating whether the
    constitutional deprivation at issue seriously impugns the
    fairness, integrity, and public reputation of judicial
    proceedings. By limiting the scope of our review to the trial
    record, we decline to act as a factfinder or to do the
    government’s job for it. That exercise of judicial restraint does
    not create a per se rule, nor does it “challenge[ ] the
    constitutionality of Rule 52(b)’s plain-error standard as
    explicated in Supreme Court decisions[,]” as the Dissent
    charges. (Dissent at 11 n.4).) There are cases, as we’ve
    previously noted (supra note 29), in which sufficient evidence
    was presented at trial to show that a defendant was aware of
    his status as a felon at the time of the crime charged. See, e.g.,
    Moss, 812 F. App’x at 111; Velázquez-Aponte, 940 F.3d at 800.
    Thus, it is not a foregone conclusion that every defendant
    convicted before Rehaif under § 922(g) – even every such
    defendant who entered into an Old Chief stipulation – will
    succeed on plain error review. Old Chief stipulations do not
    now prevent, nor have they ever prevented, the government
    from introducing knowledge-of-status evidence. To the
    contrary, the government has already begun including
    61
    consider whether the government had proven him guilty
    beyond a reasonable doubt on every element of the § 922(g)
    charge. As forcefully described in the concurrence on this
    point, upholding that outcome would amount to an appellate
    court, in the jury’s stead, “mak[ing] a factual determination on
    an unproven element of an offense by considering documents
    outside the evidentiary record,” in derogation of the Sixth
    Amendment. (J. Matey Concurrence at 2.) Whether viewed as
    a matter of the Fifth Amendment’s guarantee of due process or
    the Sixth Amendment’s promise of trial by jury, or both, a
    deprivation of those essential rights “seriously impugns ‘the
    fairness, integrity and public reputation of judicial
    proceedings[,]’” and thus satisfies step four of Olano. Gaydos,
    
    108 F.3d at 509
     (quoting Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 732
    ).
    That cannot be swept aside because of dissatisfaction
    with the rule that plain error is decided on the basis of the law
    as it stands at the time of appeal. See Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at 468
    (plainness of a trial error must be judged “at the time of
    appellate consideration”). True enough, the rules of the game
    changed here, when the decision in Rehaif came down after the
    trial. That, however, does not change our constitutional norms.
    Members of the public know that the government is supposed
    to prove a defendant’s guilt at trial. Everybody acknowledges
    that that was not done in this case, though it was nobody’s
    “fault.” Were we to ignore that breach of due process and then
    try to explain our choice by saying, “well, we all know he’s
    knowledge-of-status affirmations within Old Chief
    stipulations. Maez, 960 F.3d at 959. The variable, therefore,
    never was the stipulation; it was the government’s lack of
    awareness that it had to prove the knowledge-of-status
    element.
    62
    guilty,” it should not sit well with thoughtful members of the
    public. Nor should our taking over the jury’s role, for the sake
    of efficiency. Disregarding constitutional norms may be taken
    as tantamount to saying that rules constraining the government
    really don’t count when we just know someone is guilty.40
    40
    Faulting us for adhering firmly to the demands of due
    process, the Dissent asserts that “framing the plain error as a
    due-process violation does not automatically satisfy Olano
    prong three or four.” (Dissent at 7.) We agree. Labels are not
    what matter; substance is. To recap, looking at what happened
    in this case, and considering Olano prong three, not even our
    dissenting colleagues try to say that the government actually
    offered at trial any evidence of Nasir’s knowledge of his status
    as a previously convicted felon. So, again, there was a
    complete failure of proof on that essential element of the §
    922(g) charge, and it ought to be a matter of common
    understanding that a failure to prove all the elements of an
    offense does affect substantial rights, as our past precedent tells
    us. See United States v. Jones, 
    471 F.3d 478
    , 480 (3d Cir.
    2006) (“[A]ffirming a conviction where the government has
    failed to prove each essential element of the crime beyond a
    reasonable doubt affect[s] substantial rights … .” (internal
    quotation marks omitted) (second alteration in original)). So
    prong three is satisfied here, not because we are “framing” the
    government’s failure as one of due process but because it
    indisputably is a matter of due process, implicating one of the
    most fundamental protections afforded to an accused. As for
    prong four of Olano, we likewise are not saying that labels
    carry the day. We are focused on the fundamental right,
    enshrined in the Due Process Clause, that no one will be
    deprived of liberty without the government carrying its burden
    to prove guilt beyond a reasonable doubt. When that is at issue,
    63
    That is a message likely to call into question the fairness,
    integrity, and reputation of the justice system. We will
    therefore exercise our discretion to recognize the plain error in
    Nasir’s § 922(g) conviction.
    4.     The Remedy for the Plain Error
    We view this case as a misapprehension about the law
    – one shared by everyone in the courtroom, and perhaps across
    the nation, until Rehaif. That misapprehension led to the
    government’s failure to present sufficient evidence to sustain
    the conviction.41 Though a failure of proof usually results in
    acquittal, the Double Jeopardy Clause is not implicated when
    as it is here, we believe it does bring the judicial process into
    disrepute to ignore what the Constitution requires. See id.
    (“[A]ffirming a conviction where the government has failed to
    prove each essential element of the crime beyond a reasonable
    doubt … seriously impugns the fairness, integrity and public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” (internal quotation marks
    omitted)). We are not asking for anything to be “automatic”
    but are taking this case on its facts, as the government and the
    defendant developed those facts at trial. That, we believe, is
    what the Supreme Court meant when it said in Puckett v.
    United States that “the fourth prong [of Olano] is meant to be
    applied on a case-specific and fact-intensive basis.” 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 142 (2009). By contrast, the Dissent does seem to have
    an automatic approach: invoking Olano automatically makes
    every constitutional protection a matter of pure discretion, for
    judges to ignore if they choose.
    41
    See supra note 31.
    64
    the law has changed on appeal.42 Retrial is thus allowed and
    warranted. We will therefore vacate Nasir’s conviction on the
    § 922(g) count of the indictment, and we will remand for a new
    trial on that charge, at the government’s discretion.
    III.   CONCLUSION
    The frustration of diligent prosecutors in this case is to
    be expected and is fully justified. They did not know they had
    42
    See, e.g., United States v. Ford, 
    703 F.3d 708
    , 711-12
    (4th Cir. 2013) (granting a new trial where “the evidence
    presented at trial has been rendered insufficient only by a post-
    trial change in law … [and] was therefore akin to a reversal for
    trial error, [so] retrial did not run afoul of the Double Jeopardy
    Clause.” (internal quotation marks and citations omitted));
    United States v. Wacker, 
    72 F.3d 1453
    , 1465 (10th Cir. 1995)
    (“Moreover, the government here cannot be held responsible
    for ‘failing to muster’ evidence sufficient to satisfy a standard
    which did not exist at the time of trial.” (citation omitted));
    United States v. Weems, 
    49 F.3d 528
    , 531 (9th Cir. 1995)
    (holding that “double jeopardy protections do not bar retrial”
    when “[t]he government had no reason to introduce such
    evidence because, at the time of trial, under the law of our
    circuit, the government was not required to prove” that
    element); see also Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2201
     (Alito, J.,
    dissenting) (noting that, following the majority’s decision, “[a]
    great many convictions will be subject to challenge,
    threatening the release or retrial of dangerous individuals
    whose cases fall outside the bounds of harmless-error
    review.”).
    65
    to, and hence did not, present evidence to the jury to prove that
    the defendant knew he was a felon when he possessed a
    firearm. Likewise, the burden on the busy District Court is
    regrettable, since it too was operating on the then-widely
    shared understanding of the elements of a § 922(g) offense.
    Nevertheless, “[t]he prosecution’s failure to prove an essential
    element of the charged offense [is] plain error [and]… a
    miscarriage of justice.” United States v. Castro, 
    704 F.3d 125
    ,
    138 (3d Cir. 2013) (citations omitted).
    In sum, we will affirm Nasir’s conviction under the
    crack house statute and for possession with intent to distribute
    marijuana. We will vacate his sentence, as it was based on the
    application of the career offender enhancement that we have
    here concluded should not be applied, and we will vacate his
    conviction as a felon in possession of a firearm. Accordingly,
    we will remand for a new trial on that charge and for
    resentencing.
    66
    BIBAS, Circuit Judge, concurring in part.
    Judges interpret the law. That applies to the U.S. Sentenc-
    ing Guidelines too. If the Sentencing Commission’s commen-
    tary sweeps more broadly than the plain language of the guide-
    line it interprets, we must not reflexively defer. The judge’s
    lodestar must remain the law’s text, not what the Commission
    says about that text.
    So too here. The plain text of the Guidelines’ career-
    offender enhancement does not include inchoate crimes. The
    commentary says that it does. The majority rightly rejects this
    extra-textual invitation to expand a serious sentencing en-
    hancement, and I join Part II.D of its opinion.
    But the narrow scope of today’s holding hints at a broader
    problem. For decades, we and every other circuit have fol-
    lowed the Supreme Court’s guidance in Stinson. That meant
    we gave nearly dispositive weight to the Sentencing Commis-
    sion’s commentary, not the Guidelines’ plain text. 508 U.S. at
    44–46; see also, e.g., United States v. Keller, 
    666 F.3d 103
    ,
    108–09 (3d Cir. 2011); United States v. Boggi, 
    74 F.3d 470
    ,
    474–75 (3d Cir. 1996).
    Now the winds have changed. In Kisor, the Supreme Court
    awoke us from our slumber of reflexive deference: agency in-
    terpretations might merit deference, but only when the text of
    a regulation is truly ambiguous. Before deferring, we must first
    exhaust our traditional tools of statutory construction. Any-
    thing less is too narrow a view of the judicial role.
    We must look at things afresh. Old precedents that turned
    to the commentary rather than the text no longer hold. See
    1
    Hassen v. Gov’t of the V.I., 
    861 F.3d 108
    , 114 n.5 (3d Cir.
    2017) (noting that we may revisit our precedents when they
    conflict with intervening Supreme Court precedent). Tools of
    statutory interpretation have thus been thrust to the fore. And
    one tool among many stands out as well suited to the task: the
    rule of lenity. As we rework our Sentencing Guidelines cases,
    lenity is the tool for the job.
    I. THE RULE OF LENITY’S VIRTUES
    As Chief Justice Marshall explained, the rule of lenity is
    venerable. “The rule that penal laws are to be construed strictly,
    is perhaps not much less old than construction itself.” United
    States v. Wiltberger, 18 U.S. (5 Wheat.) 76, 95 (1820). It first
    arose to mitigate draconian sentences. As English statutes kept
    expanding the death penalty and curtailing mercy, courts tem-
    pered them by construing them narrowly. Livingston Hall,
    Strict or Liberal Construction of Penal Statutes, 
    48 Harv. L. Rev. 748
    , 749–51 (1935). The canon was well established by
    the time of Blackstone. 1 William Blackstone, Commentaries
    *88. And it took root in our law soon thereafter. Wiltberger, 18
    U.S. (5 Wheat.) at 95.
    Under the rule of lenity, courts must construe penal laws
    strictly and resolve ambiguities in favor of the defendant. See,
    e.g., Liparota v. United States, 
    471 U.S. 419
    , 427 (1985); see
    also Antonin Scalia & Bryan A. Garner, Reading Law: The In-
    terpretation of Legal Texts 296 (2012). The touchstone is the
    text: the “ordinary,” evidently intended meaning of “the words
    of the statute.” Wiltberger, 18 U.S. (5 Wheat.) at 95.
    2
    The rule of lenity serves three core values of the Republic.
    First, it is entwined with notice and thus due process. See
    McBoyle v. United States, 
    283 U.S. 25
    , 27 (1931) (Holmes, J.);
    United States v. R.L.C., 
    503 U.S. 291
    , 309 (1992) (Scalia, J.,
    concurring). It gives citizens fair warning of what conduct is
    illegal, ensuring that ambiguous statutes do not reach beyond
    their clear scope.
    Second is the separation of powers. As Chief Justice Mar-
    shall explained, the rule of lenity stems from “the plain princi-
    ple that the power of punishment is vested in the legislative,
    not in the judicial department. It is the legislature, not the
    Court, which is to define a crime, and ordain its punishment.”
    Wiltberger, 18 U.S. (5 Wheat.) at 95. If Congress wants to
    criminalize certain conduct or set certain penalties, it must do
    so clearly.
    And third but perhaps most importantly, the rule of lenity
    serves our nation’s strong preference for liberty. As Judge
    Henry Friendly explained, lenity expresses our “instinctive dis-
    taste against men languishing in prison unless the lawmaker
    has clearly said they should.” Henry J. Friendly, Mr. Justice
    Frankfurter and the Reading of Statutes, in Benchmarks 196,
    209 (1967). That approach fits with one of the core purposes
    of our Constitution, to “secure the Blessings of Liberty” for all
    citizens. U.S. Const. pmbl. Penal laws pose the most severe
    threats to life and liberty, as the Government seeks to brand
    people as criminals and lock them away. To guard against
    those threats, the rule of lenity favors respect for individual
    rights. Wiltberger, 18 U.S. (5 Wheat.) at 95. Together with the
    Double Jeopardy and Cruel and Unusual Punishments Clauses,
    3
    lenity is a longstanding safeguard against excessive punish-
    ment. John F. Stinneford, Dividing Crime, Multiplying Punish-
    ments, 
    48 U.C. Davis L. Rev. 1955
    , 1982–2001 (2015).
    II. LENITY, SENTENCING, AND KISOR
    An agency’s reading of its own regulation used to be almost
    dispositive. That applied equally to the U.S. Sentencing Com-
    mission and its commentary. Stinson, 
    508 U.S. at
    44–46. But
    no more. Now, before a court defers to an agency interpreta-
    tion, first it “must exhaust all the ‘traditional tools’ of construc-
    tion.” Kisor, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2415
     (quoting Chevron USA Inc. v.
    NRDC, 
    467 U.S. 837
    , 843 n.9 (1984)). “[O]nly when that legal
    toolkit is empty and the interpretive question still has no single
    right answer” may we give Auer deference to an agency’s read-
    ing of its own rule. Id.; see Auer v. Robbins, 
    519 U.S. 452
    , 461
    (1997).
    A key tool in that judicial toolkit is the rule of lenity. Rather
    than defer to the commentary, we should use lenity to interpret
    ambiguous Guidelines. Even though the Guidelines are advi-
    sory, they exert a law-like gravitational pull on sentences. See
    United States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
    , 265 (2005) (Breyer, J.,
    remedial majority opinion); Peugh v. United States, 
    569 U.S. 530
    , 543–44 (2013); U.S. Sentencing Comm’n, 2019 Annual
    Report and Sourcebook of Federal Sentencing Statistics 8 (re-
    porting that last year, 75% of offenders received sentences that
    were either within the Guidelines range or justified by a Guide-
    lines ground for departure). So courts must still attend to the
    rule and its animating principles.
    4
    Lenity’s third, key purpose applies here. True, one can de-
    bate the relevance of its first two purposes: whether the com-
    mentary gives enough notice and whether congressional ap-
    proval of guidelines with their commentary respects the sepa-
    ration of powers. Compare Mistretta v. United States, 
    488 U.S. 361
    , 380–411 (1989), with 
    id.
     at 422–27 (Scalia, J., dissenting).
    But in any event, the presumption of liberty remains crucial to
    guarding against overpunishment. When a guideline is ambig-
    uous, the rule of lenity calls for adopting the more lenient of
    two plausible readings. It helps ensure that “criminal punish-
    ment . . . represents the moral condemnation of the commu-
    nity.” United States v. Bass, 
    404 U.S. 336
    , 348 (1971).
    There is no compelling reason to defer to a Guidelines com-
    ment that is harsher than the text. Whatever the virtues of giv-
    ing experts flexibility to adapt rules to changing circumstances
    in civil cases, in criminal justice those virtues cannot outweigh
    life and liberty. Efficiency and expertise do not trump justice.
    Though expertise improves things for the future, sentencing re-
    quires justice tethered to the past. The rule of lenity takes prec-
    edence as a shield against excessive punishment and stigma.
    That does not mean that lenity displaces all commentary.
    Only when a comment to an otherwise ambiguous guideline
    has a clear tilt toward harshness will lenity tame it. Some pro-
    visions may have no consistent tilt across all defendants. If so,
    Auer deference might still apply.
    Here, however, the guideline’s plain text does not include
    inchoate offenses. The commentary says it does, making it
    harsher. So we rightly refuse to defer.
    5
    *****
    Courts play a vital role in safeguarding liberty and checking
    punishment. That includes reading the Sentencing Guidelines.
    Some provisions are ambiguous. But as Kisor teaches, instead
    of deferring to the commentary the moment ambiguity arises,
    judges must first exhaust our legal toolkit. This will require
    work; our old precedents relying strictly on the commentary no
    longer bind. In undertaking this task, we must not forget the
    rule of lenity.
    6
    MATEY, Circuit Judge, concurring.
    I concur in the majority opinion in full and write
    separately as to Part II.E.
    Start with this question: how many people serving on a
    jury in the United States know exactly what it means to be “a
    felon?” Most, we can guess, know that a felon has run into
    some trouble with the law. Others, that the person has been
    convicted of a crime. A particularly serious crime, at least some
    might say. But how many of the twelve would know the precise
    definition used by Congress in 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1), someone
    “who has been convicted in any court of, a crime punishable
    by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year”? No matter,
    of course. The government will explain it all as it proves the
    elements of § 922(g). And along the way, a few jurors will be
    surprised to learn that a felony is a very particular kind of
    crime. That despite countless depictions in culture, both
    popular and timeless, a “felon” is not just a “villain.” See, e.g.,
    Felon, Webster’s Third New International Dictionary 836
    (1993).
    Now ask a harder question: if at least some of those
    jurors need the arguments of a lawyer to get to the right
    meaning of “felon,” then will they all, unanimously and
    inevitably, conclude that the defendant knew it, too? Perhaps
    the government’s evidence does not add up. Recollections
    fade, records fail to materialize, witnesses flounder. Might not
    the defendant’s attorney find a chance to sow doubt?
    Then, end with the most challenging question: what if
    those jurors never heard any evidence that the defendant knew
    he met the exacting definition of “felon” in § 922(g)? That is
    1
    the issue before us today, an issue that has in recent years
    appeared throughout the federal courts. And I believe it
    requires us to properly frame the question presented. On the
    one hand, we can view the issue as whether the fourth prong of
    Olano’s standard of review for plain error should allow an
    appellate court to “look outside the record” to find proof of
    guilt that would affirm an otherwise invalid conviction. On the
    other hand, we can ask whether the Sixth Amendment as
    originally understood includes an exception to the guarantee
    that an impartial jury determines a defendant’s guilt. An
    exception that allows appellate courts to independently find an
    element of an offense proven beyond a reasonable doubt, using
    proof never presented to the jury.
    It is an important distinction because when confronted
    with a novel question of constitutional law, that is, one not
    directly controlled by precedent, we should ask if the original
    understanding of the Constitution tolerates a certain result. No
    court, it appears, has considered whether the Sixth
    Amendment, as originally understood, allows judges to make
    a factual determination on an unproven element of an offense
    by considering documents outside the evidentiary record.
    Applying that test, I have sufficient doubt that the scope of
    judicial authority imagined by the Framers reaches past the
    horizon of the Sixth Amendment’s guarantee. And I do not
    read Olano, as best understood in light of the history of the
    plain error doctrine, to allow for a result contrary to the original
    understanding of the Sixth Amendment. For those reasons, as
    I explain below, I concur.1
    1
    This distinction—whether precedent already answers
    the question—accounts for the outcome in United States v.
    2
    I. THE SIXTH AMENDMENT
    A.     The Original Understanding of the Right to a Jury
    Trial
    “Only a jury, acting on proof beyond a reasonable
    doubt, may take a person’s liberty. That promise stands as one
    of the Constitution’s most vital protections against arbitrary
    government.” United States v. Haymond, 
    139 S. Ct. 2369
    , 2373
    (2019). Ever distrustful of authority, the first generation of
    Americans skeptically—and belatedly—agreed to sturdier
    national power as long as certain stipulations bound their new
    government. Among them, the guarantee that criminal guilt is
    determined only by an “impartial jury.” U.S. Const. amend. VI.
    Hardly an American innovation, this “ancient rule,” Haymond,
    139 S. Ct. at 2376, between free persons and their governments
    has “extend[ed] down centuries,” Apprendi v. New Jersey, 
    530 U.S. 466
    , 477 (2000).2 Indeed, “[a]s Blackstone explained, no
    Jabateh, where the panel held that prior decisions precluded
    application of the plain error rule. See 
    974 F.3d 281
    , 298–300
    (3d Cir. 2020).
    2
    For examples of this history, begin with the outrages
    that drove the Stamp Act Congress of 1765 to pronounce that
    “trial by jury is the inherent and invaluable right of every
    British subject in these colonies.” Resolutions of the Stamp Act
    Congress § 7 (1765) reprinted in Select Charters and Other
    Documents         Illustrative     of     American        History
    1606–1775, 315 (William McDonald ed., 1906); see also “To
    Benjamin Franklin from Charles Thomson, Sept. 24, 1765,”
    Founders Online, National Archives, https://founders
    .archives.gov/documents/Franklin/01-12-02-0149 (“It is not
    3
    property only we contend for. Our Liberty and most essential
    privileges are struck at: Arbitrary courts are set over us, and
    trials by juries taken away.”); and see “To Benjamin Franklin
    from Thomas Wharton, June 24, 1765,” Founders Online,
    National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents
    /Franklin/01-12-02-0091 (objecting to a single judge deciding
    what was “heretofore only to be Assertained by a trial by Jury;
    and thereby depriving Us, of one of the most Essential
    priviledges of An Englishman.”). This “essential privilege”
    enjoyed by the colonists “by the immutable laws of nature”
    included entitlement “to the common law of England, and
    more especially to the great and inestimable privilege of being
    tried by their peers of the vicinage, according to the course of
    that law.” Declaration and Resolves of the First Continental
    Congress Resolution 5 (1774), available at https://avalon.law
    .yale.edu/18thcentury/resolves.asp; see also Declaration and
    Resolves of the First Continental Congress (noting that Britain
    passed “several acts” which “deprive the American subject of
    trial by jury” and “deprive[] the American subject of a
    constitutional trial by jury of the vicinage”). As the evidence
    for independence mounted, the right to jury trial emerged as
    profound motivation for the colonies to join in revolt. “IV. The
    Declaration as Adopted by Congress, [6 July 1775],” Founders
    Online, National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov
    /documents/Jefferson/01-01-02-0113-0005 (“Statutes have
    been passed . . . for depriving us of the accustomed and
    inestimable Privilege of Trial by Jury in Cases affecting both
    Life and Property”). It would become a cornerstone of a “new
    Government,” one of the foundational principles “most likely
    to effect . . . Safety and Happiness.” The Declaration of
    4
    Independence ¶ 1, 19 (1776) (“For depriving us in many cases,
    of the benefits of Trial by Jury”).
    With freedom won, the future of the right to trial by jury
    became a central cause for supporters and opponents of the
    Constitution. Writing as Phocion to persuade New York to
    ratify, Alexander Hamilton urged, “Let us not forget that the
    constitution declares that trial by jury in all cases in which it
    has been formerly used, should remain inviolate forever[].”
    Second Letter from Phocion, [Apr. 1784], Founders Online,
    National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents
    /Hamilton/01-03-02-0347. Fearing a loss of the jury stirred
    Anti-Federalist Patrick Henry to exclaim: “Why do we love
    this trial by jury? Because it prevents the hand of oppression
    cutting you off.” 3 Debates on the Adoption of the Federal
    Constitution 545 (Philadelphia, Jonathan Elliot ed., 1836)
    (1787) (statement of Patrick Henry)); see also Nathaniel
    Breading, Edmund Randolph, and Samuel Bryan,
    Observations on the Proposed Constitution for the United
    States of America 23, 1788 (“We abhor the idea of losing the
    transcendent privilege of trial by jury.”). Indeed, “[t]he friends
    and adversaries of the plan of the Convention, if they agree in
    nothing else, concur at least in the value they set upon the trial
    by jury; or if there is any difference between them it consists
    in this: the former regard it as a valuable safeguard to liberty;
    the latter represent it as the very palladium of free
    government.” Alexander Hamilton, The Federalist No. 83. And
    so the Anti-Federalists campaigned vigorously to formally
    recognize the right to jury trial as “essential in every free
    country, that common people should have a part and share of
    influence, in the judicial as well as in the legislative
    department.” Letters From The Federal Farmer (IV), in 2 The
    5
    person could be found guilty of a serious crime unless ‘the truth
    of every accusation . . . should . . . be confirmed by the
    unanimous suffrage of twelve of his equals and neighbors,
    indifferently chosen, and superior to all suspicion.’” Ramos v.
    Louisiana, 
    140 S. Ct. 1390
    , 1395 (2020) (citing 4 W.
    Blackstone, Commentaries on the Laws of England *343
    (1769)). And so the Constitution’s jury trial guarantee
    “reflect[s] a fundamental decision about the exercise of official
    power—a reluctance to entrust plenary powers over the life and
    liberty of the citizen to one judge or to a group of judges.”
    Duncan v. Louisiana, 
    391 U.S. 145
    , 156 (1968). It is a belief
    that Blackstone called “the grand bulwark of . . . libert[y].” 4
    W. Blackstone, Commentaries *349.
    The Sixth Amendment provides, “as its most important
    element, the right to have the jury, rather than the judge, reach
    Complete Anti-Federalist 249 (Herbert J. Storing ed., 1981);
    see also Letters From The Federal Farmer (XV), in 2 The
    Complete Anti-Federalist 320 (Herbert J. Storing ed., 1981)
    (“Juries are constantly and frequently drawn from the body of
    the people, and freemen of the country; and by holding the
    jury’s right to return a general verdict in all cases sacred, we
    secure to the people at large, their just and rightful controul in
    the judicial department.”). As summed up by Thomas
    Jefferson, “[a]nother apprehension is that a majority cannot be
    induced to adopt the trial by jury; and I consider that as the only
    anchor, ever yet imagined by man, by which a government can
    be held to the principles of its constitution.” “From Thomas
    Jefferson to Thomas Paine, 11 July 1789,” Founders Online,
    National Archives, https://founders.archives.gov/documents
    /Jefferson/01-15-02-0259.
    6
    the requisite finding of ‘guilty.’” Sullivan v. Louisiana, 
    508 U.S. 275
    , 277 (1993) (citing Sparf v. United States, 
    156 U.S. 51
    , 105–06 (1895)). From this flows the “unmistakable”
    condition that a “jury must reach a unanimous verdict in order
    to convict.” See Ramos, 140 S. Ct. at 1395. And for a jury to
    be unanimous, the Fifth Amendment requires a unanimous
    finding of guilt on “all elements” of the charged offense.
    Sullivan, 
    508 U.S. at
    277–78. “Together, these pillars of the
    Bill of Rights,” Haymond, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2376
    , ensure that “[t]he
    Constitution gives a criminal defendant the right to have a jury
    determine, beyond a reasonable doubt, his guilt of every
    element of the crime with which he is charged.” United States
    v. Gaudin, 
    515 U.S. 506
    , 522–23 (1995) (emphasis added). It
    is, in short, a bedrock precept that remains unmoved by the
    perpetual current that otherwise defines our Republic.
    B.     Judicial Interpretations of the Jury Trial Right
    As Justice Scalia so aptly analogized, “[w]hen this
    Court deals with the content of th[e] [right to jury] guarantee—
    the only one to appear in both the body of the Constitution and
    the Bill of Rights—it is operating upon the spinal column of
    American democracy.” Neder v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    , 30
    (1999) (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part).
    Indeed, “together with the right to vote, those who wrote our
    Constitution considered the right to trial by jury ‘the heart and
    lungs’ . . . of our liberties, without which ‘the body must die.’”
    Haymond, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2375
     (quoting Letter from Clarendon
    to W. Pym (Jan. 27, 1766), in 1 Papers of John Adams 169 (R.
    Taylor ed. 1977)). Complex surgery on one part of the body,
    however, can throw another part out of alignment. Similar
    consequences often follow judicial interpretations of our
    constitutional guarantees. For instance, consider a defendant
    7
    on trial for murder. The jury finds him not guilty. But the
    prosecution remains convinced the jury got it wrong. It brought
    forth a mountain of evidence that proved guilt beyond a
    reasonable doubt and wants to appeal. Unlike a group of
    laypersons, a panel of jurists, far more learned and wiser, will
    unquestionably find for the prosecution. Can the government
    appeal? Of course not, any first-year law student will answer,
    because of the Double Jeopardy Clause of the Fifth
    Amendment.
    Now suppose the defendant is tried for first-degree
    murder. The defendant acknowledges he is the killer, but the
    jury finds that he did not act with malice aforethought, and
    returns a not guilty verdict. Wait, argues the government, all
    the elements for an uncharged lesser crime are found in the
    record. So the prosecution appeals and asks those same wise
    judges to simply find the defendant guilty of another crime. No
    again, answers the student. Or perhaps the jury just can’t decide
    one way or another. Nine say that he definitely did it; three say
    that there’s no way. Like a low inside curve, can a judge make
    the call that decides the matter? No, because the jury verdict
    must be unanimous, a point recently steadied by the Supreme
    Court. Ramos, 140 S. Ct. at 1395.
    What about a defendant acquitted over an “erroneous
    addition of a statutory element”? Evans v. Michigan, 
    568 U.S. 313
    , 316 (2013) (emphasis added). Can the government
    appeal? No, because “our cases have defined an acquittal to
    encompass any ruling that the prosecution’s proof is
    insufficient to establish criminal liability for an offense,” even
    if that purported insufficiency turns on an extraneous element
    of the offense. 
    Id. at 318
    . Indeed, an acquittal must stand even
    if “predicated upon a clear misunderstanding of what facts the
    8
    [prosecution] needed to prove under [governing] law,” without
    regard to “whether the court’s decision flowed from an
    incorrect antecedent ruling of law,” and even when “the
    product of an erroneous interpretation of governing legal
    principles.” 
    Id. at 320
     (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Try another: suppose after the defendant is convicted it
    becomes clear that the prosecution charged and proved less
    than every essential element of the offense. No problem, says
    the government, most of the elements were proven. And a
    guilty verdict that “omits an element of the offense,” the
    Supreme Court has concluded, “does not necessarily render a
    criminal trial fundamentally unfair.” Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 9
    .
    After all, it would be awfully burdensome to retry the case just
    to prove what everyone seemingly already knows.
    But this time, the government notes, there’s a catch:
    there is no evidence in the record that could prove the missing
    element. There is other reliable proof, however, outside the
    trial record that establishes the unproven portion of the crime.3
    Can a court consider this material—information everyone
    agrees the jury never saw—and then find the defendant guilty
    beyond a reasonable doubt? Well, the answer is complex. In
    the past, tests have weighed cardinal constitutional guarantees
    against judicial efficiency and the chance of success on retrial.
    See 
    id. at 15
     (“We do not think the Sixth Amendment requires
    3
    Perhaps, for example, the evidence was suppressed. Or
    the parties stipulated to bar its introduction. Maybe the
    prosecution did not choose to offer the evidence. Maybe none
    of the parties, or the court, thought the evidence was relevant.
    Whatever the reason, the result is the same: the jury never saw
    it.
    9
    us to veer away from settled precedent” to grant “[r]eversal
    without any consideration of the effect of the error upon the
    verdict[.]”). More recently, the Supreme Court recoiled at even
    the suggestion of such a balancing test. See Ramos, 140 S. Ct.
    at 1402 (“When the American people chose to enshrine [the
    Sixth Amendment] in the Constitution, they weren’t
    suggesting fruitful topics for future cost-benefit analysis.”). All
    of which brings us to Malik Nasir.
    II. THE DOCTRINE OF PLAIN ERROR REVIEW
    There is no disagreement about the road leading to this
    case. In Rehaif v. United States, the Supreme Court held “that
    the Government must prove that a defendant charged with
    violating [18 U.S.C.] § 922(g) knew both that he possessed a
    firearm and that he belonged to the relevant class of persons
    barred from possessing a firearm.” In re Sampson, 
    954 F.3d 159
    , 161 (3d Cir. 2019) (per curiam) (citing Rehaif v. United
    States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191
    , 2200 (2019)). But Nasir’s indictment
    did not allege,4 and the Government did not prove, that Nasir
    knew about his prohibited status.5 Those errors are
    4
    Count Three of the indictment charged that Nasir “did
    knowingly possess in and affecting interstate and foreign
    commerce, firearms . . . after having been convicted of a crime
    punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year, in
    the United States District Court for the Eastern District of
    Virginia, in violation of Title 18, United States Code, Sections
    922(g)(1) and 924(a)(2).” (App. at 40–41.)
    5
    The District Court instructed the jury that “in order to
    find the defendant guilty of [
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)], you must find
    that the government proved each of the following three
    10
    unsurprising since, before Rehaif, “every single Court of
    Appeals” relied on the same “long-established interpretation”
    attributed to 18 U.S.C.§ 922(g) “in thousands of cases for more
    than 30 years.” Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2201
     (Alito, J., dissenting).
    But it was still erroneous and, since Rehaif arrived while
    Nasir’s direct appeal remained pending, “we apply [Rehaif]
    retroactively.” Johnson v. United States, 
    520 U.S. 461
    , 467
    (1997). That, one might assume, is the end of the story. Since
    the jury did not decide a necessary element of § 922(g), Nasir
    could not have received the guarantees of the Fifth and Sixth
    Amendments as originally understood. See Sullivan, 
    508 U.S. at
    277–78. Not so, owing to the ever-expanding discretion
    afforded courts under the plain error doctrine. See, e.g., United
    States v. Maez, 
    960 F.3d 949
    , 956 (7th Cir. 2020) (explaining
    that under Johnson, courts are to apply plain-error review to
    changes in constitutional law after conviction).6
    elements beyond a reasonable doubt: First, that the defendant
    has been convicted of a felony, that is, a crime punishable by
    imprisonment for a term exceeding one year; Second, that after
    this conviction, the defendant knowingly possessed the firearm
    described in Count Three of the Indictment; and Third, that the
    defendant’s possession was in or affecting interstate or foreign
    commerce.” (App. at 615–16.)
    6
    But see Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2201, 2213
     (Alito, J.,
    dissenting) (“A great many convictions will be subject to
    challenge, threatening the release or retrial of dangerous
    individuals whose cases fall outside the bounds of
    harmless-error review,” and “[t]hose for whom direct review
    has not ended will likely be entitled to a new trial.” (emphasis
    added)).
    11
    A.     The Original Understanding of Plain Error Review
    The current authority of a federal appellate court to
    notice unpreserved error grew from the early practices of the
    Supreme Court. By the late nineteenth century, the Court’s
    general rule confining review “to a discussion of the errors
    stated” still permitted the Court, “at its discretion, [to] notice
    any other errors appearing in the record.” 78 U.S. (11 Wall.) x
    (1871) (adopting Sup. Ct. R. 21 (amended 81 U.S. (14 Wall.)
    xi, xii (1872), repealed 1939)). In 1874, the Court cabined that
    discretion and coined the now familiar “plain error” doctrine.
    See Sup. Ct. R. 21 § 8, 16 (1874) (“Without such an assignment
    of errors, counsel will not be heard, except at the request of the
    court, and errors not assigned according to this rule will be
    disregarded, though the court, at its option, may notice a plain
    error not assigned.”); see O’Neil v. Vermont, 
    144 U.S. 323
    , 365
    (1892) (Field, J., dissenting) (explaining “[t]he right of the
    court to consider [an] alleged error of its own motion is within
    its authority under the [plain error] rule”). As Justice Field
    explained, the plain error rule focused on mistakes “affecting
    the liberty of the citizen.” 
    Id. at 360
    .
    Using that authority, the Court applied the plain error
    rule to invalidate a constitutionally infirm conviction. Wiborg
    v. United States, 
    163 U.S. 632
    , 658 (1896). In Wiborg, the
    Court spoke of the judicial “liberty” to review questions “not
    properly raised” if “a plain error was committed in a matter so
    absolutely vital to defendants.” 
    Id.
     The Court reaffirmed that
    perspective in Clyatt v. United States, holding that Wiborg
    “justifies us in examining the question in case a plain error has
    been committed in a matter so vital to the defendant.” 
    197 U.S. 207
    , 221–22 (1905). See also Crawford v. United States, 212
    
    12 U.S. 183
    , 194 (1909) (“[Courts] will, in the exercise of a sound
    discretion, sometimes notice error in the trial of a criminal case,
    although the question was not properly raised at the trial by
    objection and exception.”); Brasfield v. United States, 
    272 U.S. 448
    , 450 (1926) (“[F]ailure of petitioners’ counsel to
    particularize an exception to the court’s inquiry does not
    preclude this Court from correcting the error.”). And this focus
    on issues “vital” to the defendant flows directly from the
    guarantees of the Constitution. Those commitments make the
    plain error rule “not a rigid one,” and courts have had “less
    reluctance to act under it when rights are asserted which are of
    such high character as to find expression and sanction in the
    Constitution or Bill of Rights.” Weems v. United States, 
    217 U.S. 349
    , 362 (1910). The plain error rule, as first applied by
    the Supreme Court, recognizes “[t]he right of trial by Jury is a
    fundamental law, made sacred by the Constitution,” and
    enjoyed by all persons before the Founding. Vanhorne’s Lessee
    v. Dorrance, 
    2 Dall. 304
    , 309 (Patterson, Circuit Justice,
    C.C.D.Pa.1795) (discussing the language of the 1790
    Constitution of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania mirroring
    the Sixth Amendment). Jury trials are a firewall against a
    process that would devalue natural rights, unsuitable for
    sacrifice on the altar of efficiency.
    But though conceived as a reminder of the highest
    principles of ordered liberty, the plain error doctrine pivoted in
    United States v. Atkinson, 
    297 U.S. 157
     (1936). Departing from
    its prior focus on “vital” errors impacting foundational rights,
    Atkinson turned to concerns about the integrity of judicial
    proceedings. This new theory of plain error produced an
    oft-cited principle: “In exceptional circumstances, especially in
    criminal cases, appellate courts, in the public interest, may, of
    their own motion, notice errors to which no exception has been
    13
    taken, if the errors are obvious, or if they otherwise seriously
    affect the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of judicial
    proceedings.” 
    Id. at 160
    .
    B.     The Text of Rule 52(b)
    The turn did not take. Rule 52(b) codified the plain error
    doctrine in 1944, choosing fundamental rights over structural
    anxieties by shedding the baggage of Atkinson in favor of a
    straightforward definition: “[a] plain error that affects
    substantial rights may be considered even though it was not
    brought to the court’s attention.” Fed. R. Crim. P. 52(b). It is,
    of course, “the text of the Rule that controls.” Krupski v. Costa
    Crociere S.p.A., 
    560 U.S. 538
    , 557 (2010) (Scalia, J.,
    concurring in part). Rule 52(b) limits the power to notice
    unpreserved errors to only those affecting “substantial rights.”
    That language traces straight back to Wiborg. See, e.g.,
    Storgard v. France & Canada S.S. Corp., 
    263 F. 545
    , 546 (2d
    Cir. 1920) (“[A]ppellate courts may consider plain errors, not
    excepted to nor assigned, though this is rarely done except in
    criminal cases” that impact “substantial rights.”) (citing
    Oppenheim v. United States, 
    241 F. 625
    , 628 (2d Cir. 1917)
    (citing Wiborg and Crawford)); McCormick v. United States, 
    9 F.2d 237
    , 240 (8th Cir. 1925) (“The substantial rights of
    defendants in criminal cases have always been amply
    protected. . . . [W]here plain error has been committed in a
    matter vital to defendants, . . . it is considered.”) (citing
    Wiborg). Against that backdrop, there is little reason to
    conclude that Rule 52(b) disregarded the traditional meaning
    of the plain error rule. See Antonin Scalia & Bryan Garner,
    Reading Law: The Interpretation of Legal Texts 318 (2012)
    (explaining the canon of interpretation that “statutes will not
    be interpreted as changing the common law unless they effect
    14
    the change with clarity”). And while “not authoritative,” Black
    v. United States, 
    561 U.S. 465
    , 475 (2010) (Scalia, J.,
    concurring in part and concurring in the judgment), the
    commentary provided by the Advisory Committee confirms
    that is the best reading of the rule. See Fed. R. Crim. P. 52
    advisory committee’s note to subsection (b) (“Th[e] [plain
    error] rule is a restatement of existing law[.]”) (citing Wiborg,
    
    163 U.S. at 658
    ); see also Krupski, 
    560 U.S. at 557
     (Scalia, J.,
    concurring in part and concurring in the judgment) (“The
    Advisory Committee’s insights into the proper interpretation
    of a Rule’s text are useful to the same extent as any scholarly
    commentary.”).
    C.     The Olano Framework
    Despite all of this, the Court would later state that “the
    ‘standard laid down in United States v. Atkinson [was] codified
    in [Rule] 52(b).’” United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 736
    (1993). Olano provides a four-pronged inquiry that remains
    our standard today. Courts may provide remedies under Rule
    52(b) only if (1) there is an “error[,]” (2) the error is “plain[,]”
    and (3) the plain error “affect[s] substantial rights.” 
    Id.
     at 732–
    34; see also Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at
    466–67 (1997). Satisfying all
    three prongs creates discretion to (4) “correct a plain forfeited
    error affecting substantial rights if the error ‘seriously affect[s]
    the fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial
    proceedings.’” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at
    736 (citing Atkinson, 
    297 U.S. at 160
    ). So now, “a plain error affecting substantial rights
    does not, without more, satisfy the Atkinson standard, for
    otherwise the discretion afforded by Rule 52(b) would be
    illusory.” 
    Id.
     at 736–37.
    15
    Recent applications of Rule 52(b) have focused on its
    discretionary character. See Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at
    469–70
    (“When the first three parts of Olano are satisfied, an appellate
    court must then determine whether the forfeited error
    ‘seriously affect[s] the fairness, integrity or public reputation
    of judicial proceedings’ before it may exercise its discretion to
    correct the error.”) (citing Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 736
    ). These cases
    make clear that any “per se approach to plain-error review is
    flawed,” United States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 16 n.14 (1985),
    because “[t]he fourth prong is meant to be applied on a
    case-specific and fact-intensive basis.” Puckett v. United
    States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 142 (2009). That, of course, is nothing
    new, as the original application of plain error always assumed
    searching scrutiny. See Weems, 
    217 U.S. at 362
    ; Crawford, 212
    U.S. at 194; Clyatt, 
    197 U.S. at
    221–22; Wiborg, 
    163 U.S. at 658
    . But the Court expressly tied that probing inquiry to
    violations of natural, substantial rights “of such high character
    as to find expression and sanction in the Constitution or Bill of
    Rights.” Weems, 
    217 U.S. at 362
    .
    That, in my view, is the best reading of Olano, one that
    harmonizes the guarantees of the Sixth Amendment and the
    tradition of noticing errors that, though unpreserved, uniquely
    threaten fundamental rights. Not one that licenses endless
    tradeoffs to efficiency. Rather, as the Supreme Court recently
    cautioned, while “[t]here may be instances where
    countervailing factors satisfy the court of appeals that the
    fairness, integrity, and public reputation of the proceedings
    will be preserved absent correction,” we must perform a
    “searching” inquiry. Rosales-Mireles v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    , 1909 (2018) (emphasis added). Searching should, as
    always, begin with the original public understanding of the
    right in question. Looking to that history, I conclude that
    16
    allowing an appellate court to find facts and inferences outside
    the record to rescue a conviction that all agree lacked an
    essential element of proof usurps the role of the jury and
    therefore cannot be a countervailing factor under Olano. Put
    simply, it is difficult to imagine a countervailing consideration
    more fundamental than the fundamental right to a trial by jury
    secured by the Constitution.
    III. CONTRACTING PLAIN ERROR REVIEW IS
    INCONSISTENT WITH HISTORY AND TRADITION
    In many respects, we have already traveled far from the
    guarantees of the Sixth Amendment to the conclusion that
    failing to submit every element of a crime to the jury does not
    “seriously affect the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    judicial proceedings.” Johnson, 520 U.S. at 469–70; see also
    United States v. Cotton, 
    535 U.S. 625
    , 632–33 (2002) (“As in
    Johnson, we need not resolve whether respondents satisfy this
    element of the plain-error inquiry, because even assuming
    respondents’ substantial rights were affected, the error did not
    seriously affect the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    judicial proceedings.”) (citation omitted); Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 9
    (“[A]n instruction that omits an element of the offense does not
    necessarily render a criminal trial fundamentally unfair or an
    unreliable vehicle for determining guilt or innocence.”). Now,
    even under harmless-error review, an appellate court is free to
    step into the role of the jury and peruse the record for facts
    supporting the missing element of a crime. 
    Id. at 17
    . At least,
    the court may step in for now, so long as those facts are
    “overwhelming,” “uncontroverted,” and “[o]n [the] record.”
    Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at 470
     (internal quotation marks omitted);
    see also Neder, 520 U.S. at 16–17 (upholding conviction
    relying on “overwhelming record evidence”); Cotton, 
    535 U.S. 17
    at 633 (finding no plain error where record evidence was
    “overwhelming” and “essentially uncontroverted”). So while
    “we do not know . . . how many elements can be taken away
    from the jury with impunity, so long as appellate judges are
    persuaded that the defendant is surely guilty,” we know we
    would be free to affirm Nasir’s conviction looking solely to
    evidence in the record. Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 33
     (Scalia, J.,
    concurring in part and dissenting in part).
    But we have no such evidence to reach for. To uphold
    Nasir’s conviction, we must supplement the evidentiary record
    with information never presented to the jury. “The most [we]
    can conclude is that a jury would surely have found petitioner
    guilty beyond a reasonable doubt—not that the jury’s actual
    finding of guilty beyond a reasonable doubt would surely not
    have been different absent the constitutional error.” Sullivan,
    508 U.S. at 280. I am doubtful that the Sixth Amendment was
    first understood to provide courts the power “to hypothesize a
    guilty verdict that was never in fact rendered.” Id. at 279. Some
    might find it tempting to glance outside the record for proof,
    perhaps even compelling proof, that Nasir knew he was a felon.
    But that is just the sort of temptation that informed a “healthy
    suspicion” of government power and drove the demand for
    written confirmation of our most sacred rights. Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 32
     (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part); see
    also 3 J. Story, Commentaries on the Constitution of the United
    States § 1774, at 653 (1833) (“[Protection] against a spirit of
    oppression and tyranny on the part of rulers, and against a spirit
    of violence and vindictiveness on the part of the people”
    demands “the severe control of courts of justice, and by the
    firm and impartial verdict of a jury sworn to do right and
    guided solely by legal evidence and a sense of duty. In such a
    course there is a double security against the prejudices of
    18
    judges, who may partake of the wishes and opinions of the
    government, and against the passions of the multitude, who
    may demand their victim with a clamorous precipitancy.”); cf.
    Duncan, 
    391 U.S. at 160
     (“So-called petty offenses were tried
    without juries both in England and in the Colonies and have
    always been held to be exempt from the otherwise
    comprehensive language of the Sixth Amendment’s jury trial
    provisions. There is no substantial evidence that the Framers
    intended to depart from this established common-law
    practice.”).
    This history is reason alone to decline a fresh
    contraction of the plain error doctrine. The theory of plain error
    review exists, as must all laws, as a validation of our natural
    and fundamental rights. It is best imagined as a shield against
    arbitrary expansions of government, not a sword of efficiency
    striking at the very impediments to easier oppression
    demanded by the Framers, Ratifiers, and People. Failing to
    notice error here would necessarily contravene the original
    understanding of the Sixth Amendment and, therefore,
    necessarily flout the rule of Olano prohibiting courts to ignore
    errors that “seriously affect the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 736
    .
    Many courts have held differently. Some say it is of no
    moment that the government did not prove knowledge because
    it is obvious the defendant knew he was a felon. Reliable
    records tell us so, they say, and disregarding what a jury did
    not see would jeopardize the fairness, integrity, and reputation
    of the proceedings. See, e.g., United States v. Miller, 
    954 F.3d 551
    , 558 (2d Cir. 2020). Others conclude that “because
    convicted felons typically know they’re convicted felons,” any
    error is “almost always harmless.” United States v. Lavalais,
    19
    
    960 F.3d 180
    , 188 (5th Cir. 2020); see also United States v.
    Gary, 
    963 F.3d 420
    , 423 (4th Cir. 2020) (Wilkinson, J.,
    concurring) (“[T]he vast majority of defendants who will seek
    to take advantage of a structural Rehaif error are perfectly
    aware of their felony status. Felony status is simply not the kind
    of thing that one forgets.”). Still others find post-Rehaif
    extra-record review to be a natural evolution to reviewing
    documents outside the record at sentencing. See United States
    v. Reed, 
    941 F.3d 1018
    , 1021 (11th Cir. 2019) (quoting United
    States v. Vonn, 
    535 U.S. 55
    , 59 (2002)).
    Perhaps. But I do not read these post-Rehaif cases to
    proceed from the common law tradition of plain error review
    and, as a corollary, the original understanding of the Sixth
    Amendment. I find no evidence that the guarantees enumerated
    in the Bill of Rights are measured for modern efficiency. To
    the contrary, our Framers expected these rights would protect
    us all from encroachment by the government they hesitantly
    accepted. That fear explains why, “[w]hen our more immediate
    ancestors removed to America, they brought this great
    privilege with them, as their birth-right and inheritance, as a
    part of that admirable common law, which had fenced round,
    and interposed barriers on every side against the approaches of
    arbitrary power.” 3 J. Story, Commentaries on the Constitution
    of the United States § 1773, at 652–53 (1833); see also
    Thompson v. Utah, 
    170 U.S. 343
    , 350 (1898) (“The trial per
    pais, or by a jury of one’s country, is justly esteemed one of the
    principal excellencies of our constitution; for what greater
    security can any person have in his life, liberty, or estate than
    to be sure of the being devested of nor injured in any of these
    without the sense and verdict of twelve honest and impartial
    men of his neighborhood?” (quoting Juries, 3 Matthew Bacon,
    A New Abridgment of the Law (1736)). Put simply: “If you’re
    20
    charged with a crime, the Sixth Amendment guarantees you the
    right to a jury trial. From this, it follows that the prosecutor
    must prove to a jury all of the facts legally necessary to support
    your term of incarceration.” Hester v. United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 509
    , 509 (2019) (Gorsuch, J., dissenting).
    For that reason, I prefer the certainty of the “great
    rights” Madison captured in the Constitution, including “trial
    by jury, freedom of the press, [and] liberty of conscience.” 1
    Annals of Cong. 453 (1789) (Joseph Gales ed., 1834). Rather
    than see them eroded, I find “it is proper that every
    Government should be disarmed of powers which trench upon
    those particular rights.” 
    Id. at 458
    . While that differs from the
    conclusions of other courts, we should recall that “[t]hose who
    wrote our constitution[] knew from history and experience that
    it was necessary to protect against unfounded criminal charges
    . . . and against judges too responsive to the voice of higher
    authority.” Duncan, 
    391 U.S. at 156
    .
    IV. CONCLUSION
    I readily acknowledge that retrying defendants like
    Nasir might end up with juries returning the same verdict of
    guilt. But isn’t that the point? Like Justice Scalia, and
    Blackstone long before him, I bear deep reservations about any
    holding that “scorn[s]” our “formal requirements . . . when they
    stand in the way of expediency.” Neder, 
    527 U.S. at
    39–40
    (citing 4 W. Blackstone, Commentaries *350 (“[H]owever
    convenient [intrusions on the jury right] may appear at first,
    (as, doubtless, all arbitrary powers, well executed, are the most
    convenient,) yet let it be again remembered that delays and
    little inconveniences in the forms of justice are the price that
    all free nations must pay for their liberty in more substantial
    21
    matters[.]”). Pillars of liberty are rarely toppled, but sanded
    down into forms unrecognizable to their creator. The right to
    be judged by impartial peers under the due process of law
    stands as an antagonist against such erosion, and “[s]o long
    . . . as this palladium remains sacred and inviolable, the
    liberties of a free government cannot wholly fall.” 3 J. Story,
    supra § 1774, at 653 (citing 4 Blackstone Commentaries at
    *349–50).
    For all these reasons, I conclude that “[i]n the end, the
    best anyone can seem to muster . . . is that, if we dared to admit
    in his case what we all know to be true about the Sixth
    Amendment, we might have to say the same in some others.”
    Ramos, 140 S. Ct. at 1408 (plurality opinion). I therefore
    concur.
    22
    PORTER, Circuit Judge, joined by SMITH, Chief Judge,
    CHAGARES, HARDIMAN, SHWARTZ, BIBAS, and
    PHIPPS, Circuit Judges, concurring in part and dissenting in
    part.
    I concur with Sections I and II.D of the majority opin-
    ion. But I depart from the majority’s plain-error discussion in
    Section II.E because it is profoundly mistaken, it dismisses the
    collective wisdom of nearly every other circuit court, and—
    ironically—it derogates the fairness, integrity, and public rep-
    utation of judicial proceedings. After reviewing the entire rec-
    ord, I would affirm Malik Nasir’s conviction rather than re-
    mand it for a pointless retrial.
    I.     ADDITIONAL BACKGROUND
    A.     Nasir pleaded guilty to felony charges on
    three separate occasions and actually served
    over seven years’ imprisonment
    On September 6, 2000, Nasir pleaded guilty to attempt-
    ing to possess cocaine with intent to distribute. As a result of
    his guilty plea and felony conviction, Nasir was sentenced to
    seven years’ imprisonment. After serving one year in prison,
    his sentence was suspended, and he was placed on supervised
    probation.
    On June 21, 2001, Nasir pleaded guilty to possession of
    cocaine with intent to distribute. As a result of his guilty plea
    and felony conviction, Nasir was sentenced to ten years’ and
    thirty days’ imprisonment. After serving eighteen months in
    prison, his sentence was suspended and he was placed on su-
    pervised probation.
    1
    On June 20, 2007, Nasir pleaded guilty to possession of
    a firearm by a convicted felon in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1). As a result of his guilty plea and felony convic-
    tion, Nasir was sentenced to eighty-four months’ imprison-
    ment. He actually served five and one-half years of that sen-
    tence before being released on December 14, 2012.
    B. Nasir stipulated to his prior felony conviction
    and did not make a scienter objection at trial
    In 2015, Nasir was indicted for violating the felon-in-
    possession statute, together with several drug-related charges.
    At his 2017 trial, Nasir stipulated that he had been “convicted
    of a felony crime punishable by imprisonment for a term ex-
    ceeding one year, in the United States District Court for the
    Eastern District of Virginia.” S.A. 21. Although Nasir’s stipu-
    lation did not specify the prior felony conviction, it was for
    possession of a firearm by a convicted felon in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1)—the same crime for which he was being
    tried. Nasir’s stipulation prevented the government from intro-
    ducing evidence to prove the nature and circumstances of his
    prior felony conviction. See Old Chief v. United States, 
    519 U.S. 172
    , 174–75 (1997).
    Under the law at the time of Nasir’s trial, the govern-
    ment adduced sufficient evidence to secure a conviction under
    § 922(g)(1) and the district court properly instructed the jury
    on the elements of that crime. Nasir did not object to the district
    court’s jury instruction or to the sufficiency of the govern-
    ment’s evidence on the § 922(g)(1) charge. But while his ap-
    peal was pending the Supreme Court decided Rehaif v. United
    States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191
     (2019), holding that in order to secure
    a conviction under § 922(g), the government must prove that
    the defendant “knew he belonged to the relevant category of
    2
    persons barred from possessing a firearm.” Id. at 2200. Nasir
    then supplemented his briefing by adding new arguments
    based on Rehaif.
    II.    NASIR CANNOT SATISFY OLANO PRONG FOUR, SO
    HIS CONVICTION SHOULD BE AFFIRMED
    A.     The purpose of plain-error review
    The majority duly notes that because Nasir did not ob-
    ject to the sufficiency of the evidence on the knowledge-of-
    status element, we review for plain error. Maj. Op. 27. But the
    majority fails to consider the reason for plain-error review and
    how that reason informs our decision. Federal Rule of Criminal
    Procedure 52(b) exists to promote compliance with claim-
    presentation rules. When a defendant forfeits an issue by fail-
    ing to timely object, we have discretion to correct the plain er-
    ror. But that discretion is bounded by the four factors discussed
    in United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    , 732–36 (1993), par-
    ticularly the prong-four focus on the fairness, integrity, and
    public reputation of judicial proceedings.
    The link between forfeiture and plain-error review is
    relevant here because Nasir failed to raise a knowledge-of-sta-
    tus objection at his trial. True, the Supreme Court did not
    change the rule until two years later when it decided Rehaif.
    But even if a solid wall of circuit authority makes objection at
    trial apparently futile, Rule 52(b) applies when the source of
    plain error is a supervening decision. Johnson v. United States,
    
    520 U.S. 461
    , 468 (1997). Contra United States v. Keys, 
    95 F.3d 874
    , 878 (9th Cir. 1996) (Rule 52(a), rather than Rule
    52(b), governs appellate review of unpreserved error when de-
    fendant “faced with a solid wall of circuit authority” at trial),
    vacated, 
    520 U.S. 1226
     (1997).
    3
    Contrary to the majority’s suggestion, Maj. Op. 28–30,
    the scienter issue was hardly a secret at the time of Nasir’s trial.
    The Supreme Court highlighted the constitutional importance
    of mens rea in Staples v. United States, 
    511 U.S. 600
    , 619–20
    (1994) (government required to prove that defendant knew that
    the features of his AR-15 rifle brought it within the scope of
    machine-gun provision of National Firearms Act), and United
    States v. X-Citement Video, Inc., 
    513 U.S. 64
    , 78 (1994) (in
    prosecution under Protection of Children Against Sexual
    Exploitation Act, government required to prove that defendant
    knew he was sending or receiving pictures of minors engaged
    in sexually explicit conduct). In 1995, a divided Fourth Circuit
    held that the government need not prove that the defendant in
    a § 922(g)(1) prosecution had the requisite scienter regarding
    his felony status. United States v. Langley, 
    62 F.3d 602
     (4th
    Cir. 1995) (en banc). Subsequently, the scienter issue in
    § 922(g) cases continued to percolate in courts throughout the
    country. See, e.g., United States v. Games-Perez, 
    695 F.3d 1104
    , 1116–24 (10th Cir. 2012) (Gorsuch, J., dissenting from
    denial of rehearing en banc); United States v. Games-Perez,
    
    667 F.3d 1136
    , 1140–42 (10th Cir. 2012); United States v.
    Butler, 
    637 F.3d 519
    , 523–25 (5th Cir. 2011); United States v.
    Olender, 
    338 F.3d 629
    , 637 (6th Cir. 2003); United States v.
    Enslin, 
    327 F.3d 788
    , 798–99 (9th Cir. 2003); United States v.
    Wilson, 
    159 F.3d 280
    , 293–96 (7th Cir. 1998) (Posner, J., dis-
    senting).
    In our circuit, a district court anticipated Rehaif by a
    decade, holding that in a § 922(g)(1) prosecution the govern-
    ment must prove that the defendant knew of his felon status.
    United States v. Kitsch, No. 03-594-01, 
    2008 WL 2971548
    , at
    *7 (E.D. Pa. Aug. 1, 2008). And in prosecutions for the closely
    related charge of aiding and abetting a violation of § 922(g)(1),
    4
    we have long required the government to prove beyond a rea-
    sonable doubt that the defendant knew the possessor’s status as
    a felon. United States v. Xavier, 
    2 F.3d 1281
    , 1286–87 (3d Cir.
    1993).
    Even though a timely scienter-based objection would
    likely have been overruled in 2017, the objection itself could
    have prompted the government to supplement the record with
    additional evidence of Nasir’s mens rea. See Pfeifer v. Jones &
    Laughlin Steel Corp., 
    678 F.2d 453
    , 457 n.1 (3d Cir. 1982)
    (contemporaneous objection rule “affords an opportunity for
    correction and avoidance in the trial court in various ways: it
    gives the adversary the opportunity either to avoid the chal-
    lenged action or to present a reasoned defense of the trial
    court’s action; and it provides the trial court with the alterna-
    tive of altering or modifying a decision or of ordering a more
    fully developed record for review”), judgment vacated on other
    grounds, 
    462 U.S. 523
     (1983). But Nasir—unlike Rehaif—did
    not preserve his scienter-based objection, so he deprived the
    government and trial court of these opportunities.
    B.     The nature of plain-error review
    Rule 52(b) gives us discretion to correct plain error in
    such cases, but the rule is “permissive, not mandatory.” Olano,
    
    507 U.S. at 735
    . And our discretionary authority to remedy a
    forfeited error is “strictly circumscribed,” Puckett v. United
    States, 
    556 U.S. 129
    , 134 (2009), though not as the majority
    appears to believe. The majority asserts that we have only “a
    degree of discretion in determining whether to correct [plain]
    error,” which seems to suggest a presumption in favor of error-
    correction and that our discretion to ignore plain error is quite
    narrow. Maj. Op. 27.
    5
    The majority’s parsimonious view of our Rule 52(b)
    discretion is contrary to Supreme Court precedent. We are to
    correct plain errors “sparingly,” Jones v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 373
    , 389 (1999), and only in “exceptional circumstances,”
    United States v. Atkinson, 
    297 U.S. 157
    , 160 (1936), where it
    is necessary to set aside “particularly egregious errors,” United
    States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 15 (1985) (internal quotation
    marks omitted) (quoting United States v. Frady, 
    456 U.S. 152
    ,
    163 (1982)). Meeting all four prongs of the plain-error standard
    “is difficult, ‘as it should be.’” Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 135
     (quot-
    ing United States v. Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 83 n.9
    (2004)). That is particularly true when, as here, curing the plain
    error would require the district court to conduct a burdensome
    jury retrial. Rosales-Mireles v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    ,
    1909 (2018).
    The reviewing court’s exercise of prong-four discretion
    is an independent barrier to relief on a forfeited claim of error.
    Even “a plain error affecting substantial rights does not, with-
    out more, satisfy the Atkinson standard, for otherwise the dis-
    cretion afforded by Rule 52(b) would be illusory.” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 737
    . Regrettably, we have sometimes conflated prongs
    three and four with little to no separate prong-four analysis. See
    United States v. Gaydos, 
    108 F.3d 505
    , 509 (3d Cir. 1997)
    (suggesting, without any prong-four analysis, that the plain er-
    ror automatically satisfied prong four); Xavier, 
    2 F.3d at 1287
    (same).
    This case affords a rare opportunity for the en banc
    Court to disavow such imprecision and fine-tune its approach
    to plain-error review. Alas, the majority exacerbates the prob-
    lem by declaring that the plain error in Nasir’s case derogated
    his substantial rights thus satisfying Olano step four. Maj. Op.
    62 (citing Gaydos, 
    108 F.3d at 509
    ). Rather than conduct “a
    6
    case-specific and fact-intensive” review in light of the entire
    record, Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 142
    , the majority simply assumes
    that plain error of an undefined “magnitude” categorically re-
    quires correction at Olano prong four. Maj. Op. 62.
    C.     Plain-error review requires consideration of
    the entire record
    Casting aside the case-specific and fact-intensive ap-
    proach required by Puckett, the majority asserts that “constitu-
    tional norms” require error-correction because the Supreme
    Court’s decision in Rehaif retroactively created due process
    concerns. Maj. Op. 62. But framing the plain error as a due-
    process violation does not automatically satisfy Olano prong
    three or four. See United States v. Marcus, 
    560 U.S. 258
    , 264–
    66 (2010). That is because even constitutional rights “may be
    forfeited in criminal as well as civil cases by the failure to make
    timely assertion of the right before a tribunal having jurisdic-
    tion to determine it.” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 731
     (internal quotation
    marks omitted) (quoting Yakus v. United States, 
    321 U.S. 414
    ,
    444 (1944)). So a defendant’s failure to object at trial, even
    though the error was not plain at the time, “may well count
    against the grant of Rule 52(b) relief.” Henderson v. United
    States, 
    568 U.S. 266
    , 278–79 (2013).
    The Court in Johnson held only that an error that was
    not plainly incorrect at the time of trial becomes plain when the
    law is subsequently clarified. Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at 468
    . That
    is, the timing question concerned the “plainness” of the error,
    which relates only to Olano prong two. See Henderson, 
    568 U.S. at 279
     (time-of-review rule adopted in Johnson and
    Henderson applies specifically to the second part of the four-
    part Olano test). The majority’s insistence that our prong-four
    analysis is likewise limited to the time of trial (as memorialized
    7
    in the trial record) is unwarranted and finds no support in
    Johnson.
    Indeed, having found that the error was plain, the Court
    in Johnson assumed without deciding that Olano prong three
    was satisfied and denied relief under prong four because the
    error did not “seriously affect[] the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at
    469–
    70 (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 736
    ). Two aspects of the Court’s discussion are relevant
    here. First, the Court itself—and not the jury—found that the
    record contained enough evidence on materiality that no rea-
    sonable juror could have decided the materiality question1 in
    any other way. Id. at 470; see also United States v. Johnson,
    
    899 F.3d 191
    , 200 (3d Cir. 2018) (finding the trial record con-
    tained sufficient evidence to support defendant’s conviction
    and declining to cure plain error at prong four, even though the
    jury was not instructed to find, and did not find, a required el-
    ement).
    Second, in making that finding the Court did not confine
    its review to information available only at the time of trial. Ra-
    ther, it noted that “[m]ateriality was essentially uncontroverted
    at trial and has remained so on appeal.” Johnson, 520 U.S. at
    470 (emphasis added) (footnote omitted). Reviewing the case
    under the prong-four standard, the Court considered whether
    petitioner made a plausible showing2—not just at trial but
    1
    The plain error in Johnson concerned the trial court’s failure
    to submit materiality to the jury, as subsequently required in
    United States v. Gaudin, 
    515 U.S. 506
     (1995). Johnson, 
    520 U.S. at 464
    .
    2
    We have also previously used a “no-plausible-argument” or
    “no-plausible-explanation” test in deciding plain-error cases at
    8
    afterwards, before the Eleventh Circuit or the Supreme
    Court—that the false statement for which she was convicted
    was not material. 
    Id.
     Satisfied that she had not, the Court af-
    firmed the court of appeals’ exercise of its discretion to decline
    to correct the plain error. So while the “plainness” of an error
    (prong two) is pegged to the time of trial, the broader question
    whether the plain error seriously affects the fairness, integrity,
    and public reputation of judicial proceedings (prong four) has
    a longer time horizon extending throughout the appeal process.
    See Henderson, 
    568 U.S. at 275
     (the reviewing court examines
    Olano’s third and fourth criteria by “looking at the circum-
    stances that now are,” i.e., at the time of the appeal rather than
    by looking back to the time of trial).
    The majority attempts to narrow the discretion provided
    by Rule 52(b) by ignoring its expansive text and cabining its
    temporal scope. Throughout its opinion, the majority insists
    that the discretion afforded by Rule 52(b) must be restricted to
    the time of the trial itself and to facts in the trial record. This is
    necessary, the majority warns, to avoid trampling on Fifth and
    Sixth Amendment rights in violation of In re Winship, 
    397 U.S. 358
     (1970). Maj. Op. 32–33.
    The majority misapprehends the nature and purpose of
    plain-error review, particularly at prong four. We do not pur-
    port to “find facts” in order to overcome a deficiency in the
    evidence and on that basis pronounce the defendant’s convic-
    tion while relieving the government of its burden. Rather, as is
    clear from the entire line of plain-error cases before and after
    Olano, there is a material difference between our remedial
    prong four. See, e.g., United States v. Greenspan, 
    923 F.3d 138
    , 154–56 (3d Cir. 2019); United States v. W. Indies Transp.,
    Inc., 
    127 F.3d 299
    , 306 (3d Cir. 1997).
    9
    discretion under Rule 52(b) and the jury’s factfinding role at
    trial. At prong four, we answer a question that no jury could
    ever appropriately entertain: whether, considering the entire
    record, reasonable observers would conclude that declining to
    correct the plain error creates a miscarriage of justice or would
    seriously affect the fairness, integrity, and public reputation of
    judicial proceedings generally.
    Conversely, remanding for retrial on an uncontestable
    element may be “[t]he real threat” to fairness and undermine
    the reputation of judicial proceedings—a powerful truism that
    the majority does not acknowledge. United States v. Cotton,
    
    535 U.S. 625
    , 634 (2002); see also Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at 82
     (plain-error review should enforce Rule 52(b)’s pol-
    icy of reducing “wasteful reversals”).
    The majority’s misconception of plain-error review in-
    fects its entire discussion of the record that we review under
    Rule 52(b). Because the majority regards plain-error review as
    a kind of extension of the jury trial rather than a discretionary
    act tethered to Rule 51(b)’s forfeiture rule, it fixates on
    Winship’s requirement of proof beyond a reasonable doubt in
    criminal trials. Maj. Op. 32–37.3 Were we reviewing Nasir’s
    conviction for sufficiency of the evidence, the majority’s scru-
    ples would be more persuasive. But we are merely exercising
    remedial discretion over a forfeited objection, so unless the
    3
    In response, the majority contends that what separates us is
    nothing less than fidelity to the “Constitution itself.” Maj. Op.
    34 n.17. But the majority ignores the thrust of my criticism. In
    a different case the majority’s fixation on Winship would be
    salutary, but here it is misplaced because plain-error review is
    not a continuation of the jury trial.
    10
    majority intends to attack the constitutionality of Rule 52(b)
    generally, its analysis is misdirected.4
    D.      By limiting plain-error review to the trial rec-
    ord, the majority creates a per se rule requir-
    ing error correction
    We evaluate a claim of plain error “against the entire
    record” because “[i]t is simply not possible for an appellate
    court to assess the seriousness of the claimed error by any other
    means.” Young, 
    470 U.S. at 16
    . This case nicely illustrates why
    it is “simply not possible” to perform a prong-four assessment
    without considering the whole record. At prong three, we re-
    view only the trial record to determine whether the error af-
    fected the outcome of the district court proceedings. See United
    States v. Maez, 
    960 F.3d 949
    , 961 (7th Cir. 2020). If it did, then
    we move to Olano prong four. But if at prong four we continue
    to limit our consideration to the trial record we see only the
    prejudice that satisfied prong three in the first place. We cannot
    see—or more precisely, we pretend not to notice—Nasir’s
    4
    We do not “[d]isregard[] constitutional norms” in refusing to
    remand a case to the district court on plain-error review when
    the jury’s verdict was obviously correct. Maj. Op. 62. Surely
    the majority is not suggesting that plain-error review is inap-
    plicable whenever important constitutional rights are at issue;
    nor (I hope) is it suggesting that nearly all of our sister circuits
    are so unconcerned with the preservation of constitutional
    guarantees that they would disregard an obvious Sixth
    Amendment violation just for the sake of keeping a person be-
    hind bars. See infra at 16–17. Simply put, the majority’s ap-
    proach challenges the constitutionality of Rule 52(b)’s plain-
    error standard as explicated in Supreme Court decisions.
    11
    three prior felony guilty pleas5 and his seven and one-half years
    of imprisonment. Thus blinkered, we cannot adopt the broader,
    outward-looking perspective necessary to determine whether
    public perceptions of fairness, integrity, and the reputation of
    judicial proceedings require us to cure the error.
    The majority’s crucial move—limiting the scope of our
    prong-four review—is dispositive in appeals from Rehaif-
    infected felon-in-possession convictions where, as here, the de-
    fendant stipulated to his felon status. Because of Nasir’s stipu-
    lation, the government was precluded from adducing evidence
    relating to the nature and circumstances of his prior felony con-
    victions. Old Chief, 
    519 U.S. at
    174–75. For the reasons
    5
    The majority is comfortable inferring a defendant’s
    knowledge-of-felon status from his prior guilty plea because
    “when a defendant pleads guilty, the district court must ensure
    that the plea is knowing and voluntary.” Maj. Op. 40. But the
    majority refuses to apply that same logic to Nasir, who know-
    ingly and voluntarily pleaded guilty to felony charges on three
    separate occasions. Indeed, he even pleaded guilty to a prior
    felon-in-possession charge. So as the majority acknowledges,
    when he was tried for the same offense in this case he neces-
    sarily knew that he was a felon. This is precisely the sort of
    information that should inform our discretionary judgment at
    prong four. See, e.g., United States v. Huntsberry, 
    956 F.3d 270
    , 285 (5th Cir. 2020); United States v. Ward, 
    957 F.3d 691
    ,
    695 (6th Cir. 2020). Nasir’s plea to a felon-in-possession
    charge, which is the offense embodied in the Old Chief stipu-
    lation, is a central reason why this case is not one where allow-
    ing the conviction to stand would impugn the fairness, integ-
    rity, or reputation of judicial proceedings. See also infra at 21-
    23.
    12
    explained in Old Chief, shielding Nasir in that manner was ap-
    propriate at his jury trial. But post-trial, the unfair-prejudice
    and jury-misleading rationales of Federal Rule of Evidence
    403 no longer obtain, which highlights the tension between
    Rehaif and Old Chief that Justice Alito noted in his Rehaif dis-
    sent. Rehaif, 139 S. Ct. at 2209 (Alito, J., dissenting). The ma-
    jority’s restriction of our prong-four review to the trial record
    effectively converts Nasir’s Old Chief stipulation from a jury-
    trial shield into an appellate sword preventing this Court from
    considering facts relating to his scienter.
    Allowing Nasir to deploy Old Chief offensively itself
    adversely affects the fairness, integrity, and public reputation
    of judicial proceedings. But limiting our prong-four review to
    the trial record is even more consequential. By short-circuiting
    the Olano analysis at step three, the majority predestines the
    result in appeals of Rehaif-infected felon-in-possession convic-
    tions involving an Old Chief stipulation—always in favor of
    error-correction. The combination of Old Chief and the major-
    ity’s insistence that we may consider only the trial record, even
    at prong four, creates a per se rule requiring remand in every
    such case. That is precisely the type of “flawed” approach that
    the Supreme Court has disapproved because it renders our
    prong-four discretion “illusory.” Olano, 
    507 U.S. at 737
    ;
    Young, 
    470 U.S. at
    16 n.14.
    Given the Supreme Court’s clear and repeated admoni-
    tions, the majority offers assurance that it is not advocating the
    adoption of a per se rule. Maj. Op. 50 n.29. But that disclaimer
    is meaningless; whether the majority intends to “advocate” the
    adoption of a per se rule, it has in fact created one. Gamely
    trying to demonstrate the flexibility of its per se rule, the ma-
    jority offers two examples “where sufficient evidence was pre-
    sented at trial to show that the defendant was aware of his status
    13
    as a felon at the time of the crime.” 
    Id.
     (citing United States v.
    Moss, 812 F. App’x 108, 111 (4th Cir. 2020), and United States
    v. Velázquez-Aponte, 
    940 F.3d 785
    , 800 (1st Cir. 2019)). Both
    cases are inapposite, however, because in neither did the de-
    fendant invoke the Old Chief bar by stipulating to his prior fel-
    ony conviction.
    Throughout its opinion, the majority discounts the im-
    pact of Nasir’s Old Chief stipulation. Maj. Op. 47 n.26 (“[W]e
    think the existence of an Old Chief stipulation has little rele-
    vance to the analysis . . . .”). That is a massive blind spot.
    Because defendants typically avail themselves of
    Old Chief when they have multiple or damning
    felony records, it should come as no surprise that
    a reviewing court, conducting plain-error review,
    will find that the fairness, integrity, or public rep-
    utation of judicial proceedings has not been af-
    fected, when considering evidence of the defend-
    ant’s felony status beyond just the trial record.
    United States v. Miller, 
    954 F.3d 551
    , 559 n.23 (2d Cir. 2020).
    That is true here, as well. But by limiting our review to the trial
    record—which of course includes the Old Chief bar—the ma-
    jority makes it impossible for us to perform the required prong-
    four analysis.
    The majority has no answer to the outsized role of Old
    Chief in this case, except to implausibly suggest that Nasir’s
    stipulation did not prevent the government from introducing
    his knowledge-of-status at trial. Maj. Op. 50 n.29. But pre-
    cisely because of Nasir’s stipulation, the trial court would al-
    most certainly have sustained the inevitable unfair-prejudice
    objection because the evidence proving his felon status and
    14
    knowledge of status is substantially the same, or at least inex-
    tricably intertwined.
    E.     The “entire record” is broader than the trial
    record
    The majority leans heavily on Johnson for its holding
    that we may consider only the trial record on plain-error re-
    view, rather than the entire record. Maj. Op. 34–35. But
    Johnson was not a felon-in-possession case, so the trial record
    was not constrained by Old Chief. As a result, the evidence
    supporting materiality was so “overwhelming” that petitioner
    had “no plausible argument” at trial or on appeal. Johnson, 520
    U.S. at 470. The lack of an Old Chief stipulation is highly rel-
    evant to the analysis in Johnson and distinguishes it from this
    case.
    The majority’s discussion of Neder v. United States,
    
    527 U.S. 1
     (1999), is even less persuasive. Maj. Op. 35 n.18.
    Neder was a harmless-error case decided under Rule 52(a), not
    a Rule 52(b) plain-error case. 527 U.S. at 7–8. Olano step three
    is essentially harmless-error analysis, and as the majority itself
    acknowledges, all agree that it is based on the trial record. Maj.
    Op. 44–45 (discussing Maez). But the move from step three to
    step four distinguishes this and other plain-error cases from
    Neder, and it is at step four that we are required to evaluate the
    case “against entire record.” Young, 
    470 U.S. at 16
    . The ma-
    jority’s reliance on Neder in support of its trial-record-only
    holding underscores its persistent tendency to conflate Olano
    prongs three and four.6
    6
    The majority’s emphasis on the amount of evidence in the
    Neder trial record is curious, considering its heavy reliance on
    15
    Our sister circuits understand this quite well. As the ma-
    jority concedes, the Second, Fifth, Sixth, Seventh, Eighth,
    Ninth, and Eleventh Circuits have repeatedly affirmed jury ver-
    dicts in § 922(g) cases and rejected arguments similar to those
    accepted by the majority. Miller, 954 F.3d at 560; Huntsberry,
    956 F.3d at 285–87; Ward, 957 F.3d at 695; Maez, 960 F.3d at
    963–64; United States v. Owens, 
    966 F.3d 700
    , 706–07 (8th
    Cir. 2020); United States v. Benamor, 
    937 F.3d 1182
    , 1188–89
    (9th Cir. 2019); United States v. Reed, 
    941 F.3d 1018
    , 1021–
    22 (11th Cir. 2019). Even United States v. Medley, 
    972 F.3d 399
     (4th Cir. 2020), which the majority enlists for support,
    Maj. Op. 57–58, does not explicitly foreclose consideration of
    matters outside the trial record when addressing forfeited
    Rehaif claims under the plain-error standard. Medley, 972 F.3d
    at 417. Medley is already an outlier; the majority would go even
    further and place this Court beyond the pale.
    At last count, 140 appellate judges and 15 district judges
    sitting by designation have voted to uphold a felon-in-posses-
    sion conviction on plain-error review of a Rehaif claim. How
    could so many federal judges approve the obvious violation of
    important Fifth Amendment and Sixth Amendment rights? The
    In re Winship. Maj. Op. 35 n.18. The defendant’s Sixth
    Amendment right is to have all evidence proven beyond a rea-
    sonable doubt to a jury, not simply to have the government put
    a surfeit of evidence into a record. Yet, applying the harmless-
    error standard the Supreme Court affirmed Neder’s conviction
    because there was enough evidence in the record to find an el-
    ement of the offense—even though the jury never made such a
    finding. 527 U.S. at 16–18. Neder thus undermines rather than
    supports the majority’s primary rationale in this plain-error
    case.
    16
    answer is that they haven’t; our colleagues overwhelmingly
    understand the difference between judicial factfinding and
    plain-error remedial discretion.7
    By holding that we may not review the whole record at
    prong four, the majority positions us on the short end of a lop-
    sided circuit split. It fails to identify a “compelling basis” to do
    so, in defiance of our Court’s “general[] reluctan[ce]” to create
    such splits. In re Asbestos Prod. Liab. Litig. (No. VI), 
    921 F.3d 98
    , 109 (3d Cir. 2019) (internal quotation marks omitted)
    (quoting Parker v. Montgomery Cty. Corr. Facility/Bus. Office
    Manager, 
    870 F.3d 144
    , 152 (3d Cir. 2017)). More im-
    portantly, the majority’s criticisms of our sister circuits’ posi-
    tions are mistaken.
    Consider the majority’s handling of the Eleventh
    Circuit’s decision in United States v. Reed. The defendant in
    Reed was convicted by a jury of possessing a firearm as a felon,
    and the Eleventh Circuit affirmed his conviction. 941 F.3d at
    1019. The Supreme Court vacated the Eleventh Circuit’s judg-
    ment of affirmance in light of Rehaif and remanded for recon-
    sideration. Id. On remand, the Eleventh Circuit once again af-
    firmed. Id. at 1022. It held that an appellate court may review
    the whole record when assessing a Rehaif error’s effect, or lack
    thereof, on the fairness, integrity, or public reputation of
    7
    The majority sniffs that its decision is based upon “independ-
    ent judgment” rather than simple nose-counting. Maj. Op. 49
    n.28. That misses the point. Respectfully, my suggestion is that
    in exercising its independent judgment the majority has inade-
    quately considered the extreme unlikelihood that so many of
    our judicial colleagues have somehow missed, or would casu-
    ally ignore, the due process and Sixth Amendment concerns
    that the majority finds so troubling.
    17
    judicial proceedings. Id. at 1021–22. Because the defendant’s
    presentence report “stated that he had been incarcerated for
    lengthy terms before possessing the firearm,” id. at 1020, he
    could not prove that the error affected “the fairness, integrity,
    or public reputation of his trial,” id. at 1022. Accordingly, the
    Eleventh Circuit declined to set aside his conviction. Id. at
    1022.
    The majority chides the Eleventh Circuit for relying on
    United States v. Vonn, 
    535 U.S. 55
     (2002), and concluding that
    a court need not confine itself to the trial record at prong four,
    because Vonn involved review of a guilty plea rather than a
    conviction after a jury trial. Maj. Op. 39–40. But the majority
    ignores the Eleventh Circuit’s discussion of United States v.
    Young. See Reed, 941 F.3d at 1021. In Young, the Supreme
    Court denied plain-error relief where a prosecutor made im-
    proper comments during rebuttal because the remarks were
    made in response to defense counsel’s own improper remarks
    during summation and “were not such as to undermine the fun-
    damental fairness of the trial and contribute to a miscarriage of
    justice.” 
    470 U.S. at
    16–19. The Court explained that it could
    not “properly evaluate [the defendant’s claims of error] except
    by viewing [them] against the entire record,” 
    id. at 16
     (empha-
    sis added), because Rule 52(b) “authorizes the Courts of Ap-
    peals to correct only ‘particularly egregious errors,’” 
    id. at 15
    (quoting Frady, 
    456 U.S. at 163
    ).
    The Supreme Court has never held that the “entire rec-
    ord” that Young instructs us to examine means just the trial rec-
    ord.8 That would make no sense: reasonable people will
    8
    In Makiel v. Butler, 
    782 F.3d 882
     (7th Cir. 2015), the Seventh
    Circuit discussed the difference between the “entire record”
    and the “trial record” in a case involving the materiality
    18
    consider all relevant information in assessing whether our de-
    cision to affirm Nasir’s conviction works a miscarriage of jus-
    tice that is inconsistent with fairness, integrity, and the good
    reputation of our judicial system. And unlike the majority, they
    will not arbitrarily ignore the indisputable fact of Nasir’s sci-
    enter and guilt. Maj. Op. 59–64. In deciding whether to exer-
    cise our discretion, we should consider reliable materials
    within and outside of the trial record just as thoughtful mem-
    bers of the public certainly will.9
    standard of the Compulsory Process Clause. 
    Id.
     at 908–10. Alt-
    hough Makiel was not a plain-error case, the court’s discussion
    assists our consideration of the scope of discretionary review
    prescribed by Olano. Similar to our task at prong four, the court
    in Makiel had to evaluate the defendant’s argument in light of
    public interests such as “the integrity of the adversary process,
    the interest in the fair and efficient administration of justice,
    and the potential prejudice to the truth-determining function of
    the trial process.” 
    Id. at 909
    . The Seventh Circuit concluded
    that when the Supreme Court instructs circuit courts to evaluate
    claims of trial error in the context of the “entire record,” that is
    broader than the “trial record.” 
    Id.
    9
    Consider the prong-four significance of Nasir’s Old Chief
    stipulation, which of course was part of the trial record. The
    majority suggests that it could never be even circumstantial ev-
    idence of his scienter, Maj. Op. 55–57, but that assertion is not
    compelled by Rehaif. And it wars against common sense and
    experience. As a strictly logical proposition, it is true that
    Nasir’s stipulation proved only that he knew of his felon status
    as of the date of the stipulation; it did not necessarily prove that
    he knew he was a felon when he was arrested with the gun. But
    just as a factual statement can be strictly true and yet fraudulent
    19
    The majority also assails the Second Circuit’s decision
    in Miller and the Seventh Circuit’s decision in Maez. Its criti-
    cism of the approach taken by those two circuits is similarly
    unpersuasive.
    Miller involved a defendant whose presentence inves-
    tigation report showed that he spent several years in prison
    prior to his firearm possession, rendering it obvious that he
    knew he was a felon at the time of possession. 954 F.3d at 560.
    The Second Circuit “ha[d] no doubt that, had the Rehaif issue
    been foreseen by the district court, [the defendant] would have
    stipulated to knowledge of his felon status to prevent the jury
    from hearing evidence of his actual sentence.” Id. at 560. So,
    the court concluded, the fairness, integrity, and public reputa-
    tion of the judicial system would not be seriously affected by
    upholding the conviction; in fact, the defendant was so obvi-
    ously guilty that vacating his conviction “would have that ef-
    fect.” Id. at 559. In Maez, the Seventh Circuit largely adopted
    the Second Circuit approach, concluding that vacating the con-
    victions of two defendants whose presentence reports indicated
    that they served more than one year in prison on prior felony
    because of a material omission, Nasir’s stipulation does not
    foreclose the possibility that he also understood that he was a
    felon every day after his knowing and voluntary guilty pleas in
    2000, 2001, and 2007. A thoughtful observer drawing upon her
    reason, experience, and common sense might easily infer from
    Nasir’s June 2017 stipulation that he knew of his felon status
    when apprehended with a gun in December 2015. Such an in-
    ference, though not logically required, would be patently sen-
    sible to many people. And surely, many will consider his stip-
    ulation in this light when evaluating our discretionary decision
    whether to notice the plain error created by Rehaif.
    20
    convictions would negatively affect the fairness, integrity, and
    public reputation of judicial proceedings. 960 F.3d at 964–66.
    The majority faults the Second and Seventh Circuits for
    “treat[ing] judicial discretion as powerful enough to override
    the defendant’s right to put the government to its proof when it
    has charged him with a crime.” Maj. Op. 46–47. But Nasir has
    not been deprived of that right. He had the opportunity to insist
    that the government be required to prove that he knew he was
    a felon at the time of his firearm possession. He did not do so,
    instead agreeing that no such proof need be presented. As a
    direct result of that choice, the government did not introduce
    evidence as to Nasir’s knowledge of his status at the time of
    possession though such evidence was readily available. I do
    not see why Nasir’s failure to object to the jury instruction and
    decision to instead avail himself of an Old Chief stipulation
    should continue to redound to his benefit now that we are ex-
    ercising remedial discretion.
    F.     Nasir does not satisfy Olano’s step-four stand-
    ard for error-correction
    Our sister circuits’ approach does not “imply that relief
    on plain-error review is available only to the innocent.” Maj.
    Op. 47.10 If, for example, an error so corrupts a judicial
    10
    Indeed, as the Seventh Circuit recognized, “defendants can
    sometimes show an effect on fairness or integrity without a
    claim of innocence.” Maez, 960 F.3d at 962. But “though a de-
    fendant’s likelihood of actual guilt or innocence does not nec-
    essarily control the third prong of plain-error review, it may
    play a role at prong four.” Id. That is because a court has “broad
    discretion under prong four to leave even plain errors
    21
    proceeding as to make its verdict completely unreliable, no
    court would require a defendant to prove on appeal that he was
    actually innocent before vacating a conviction resulting from
    such a proceeding. See Medley, 972 F.3d at 424–25 (Quattle-
    baum, J., dissenting) (explaining that “central” to prong-four
    analysis in a criminal case “is a determination of whether,
    based on the record in its entirety, the proceedings against the
    accused resulted in a fair and reliable determination of guilt”
    (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting United States v.
    Ramirez-Castillo, 
    748 F.3d 205
    , 217 (4th Cir. 2014))). That is
    because the Third Branch would not want to put its imprimatur
    on a proceeding that makes a mockery of justice and reduces
    the system’s standing in the eyes of the public. But that is not
    a problem here. A simple, unobjected-to error in jury instruc-
    tions, where the defendant’s conviction would have been cer-
    tain had an objection been made at the proper time, does not
    cry out for an exercise of our discretion.
    Remanding this case for retrial is unnecessarily burden-
    some and seriously undermines the fairness and public reputa-
    tion of judicial proceedings. That broad inquiry is the standard
    governing our exercise of discretion. The majority compounds
    its error by explicitly limiting our prong-four discretion to
    Nasir’s trial, which, it insists, “is the only judicial proceeding
    at issue.” Maj. Op. 41 n.22. Not so. At prong four we ask
    whether refusing to cure the plain error would “seriously affect
    the fairness, integrity or public reputation of judicial proceed-
    ings” generally, not merely the particular defendant’s proceed-
    ing. Puckett, 
    556 U.S. at 135
    . As the Court elaborated in
    Puckett, we consider whether affirming Nasir’s conviction
    uncorrected where [it has] no doubt as to the ultimate result of
    further proceedings.” Id. at 963.
    22
    would call into question “the integrity of the system” and be so
    ludicrous as to “compromise the public reputation of judicial
    proceedings.” Id. at 142–43 (emphasis added); see also United
    States v. Edgell, 
    914 F.3d 281
    , 291 (4th Cir. 2019); United
    States v. Marroquin, 
    884 F.3d 302
    , 304 (5th Cir. 2018) (Smith,
    J., dissenting from denial of rehearing en banc); United States
    v. Gonzalez-Huerta, 
    403 F.3d 727
    , 739 (10th Cir. 2005) (en
    banc); 
    id. at 742
     (Ebel, J., concurring); 
    id. at 747
     (Hartz, J.,
    concurring). Because the majority asks the wrong prong-four
    question, it refuses to consider information that would suggest
    the correct answer.
    Even if we improperly limited our prong-four inquiry to
    what the majority erroneously describes as “the actual field of
    play – the trial,” Maj. Op. 41 n.22, we should still affirm. When
    asked twice at oral argument how Nasir would attempt to dis-
    prove the knowledge-of-status element if the case were sent
    back for retrial, his counsel was unable to give a responsive
    answer. (That is not a criticism of counsel’s performance; there
    is no plausible explanation.) Instead, counsel allowed that
    Nasir would strategically use a remand to try to negotiate a bet-
    ter plea deal. In light of that revelation, I believe that thoughtful
    members of the public would view the majority’s judgment and
    Nasir’s windfall with bemused cynicism rather than reputation-
    enhancing admiration.
    G.      We are bound by the Supreme Court’s plain-
    error precedent
    The majority at least purports to apply Olano and its
    progeny. Judge Matey’s opinion strikes out in an entirely dif-
    ferent direction, citing first principles. I endorse that approach
    in cases where lower court judges write on a blank slate, but in
    this appeal we are guided by ample Supreme Court precedent.
    23
    In any event, although we have not had the benefit of original-
    ist briefing and argument, I doubt that Rule 52(b)’s remedial
    discretion as currently applied offends the Sixth Amendment
    and note that Justices Scalia and Thomas both joined Olano
    without any reservation, originalist or otherwise. Cf. Concur-
    ring Op. 13–16 (criticizing Atkinson and Olano as allegedly
    unwarranted expansions of original plain-error doctrine).
    Moreover, I fail to grasp how a purportedly originalist applica-
    tion of plain-error review can affirm the conviction of non-
    criminal conduct but disallows the conviction of conduct that
    was certainly criminal but not properly proven. Cf. United
    States v. Jabateh, 
    974 F.3d 281
    , 287 (3d Cir. 2020).
    *****
    The Supreme Court has disapproved “a reflexive incli-
    nation by appellate courts to reverse because of unpreserved
    error,” a tendency contrary to the “strictly circumscribed”
    appellate-court authority to remedy unpreserved error only
    where necessary due to exceptional circumstances. Puckett,
    
    556 U.S. at 134
     (internal quotation marks omitted) (quoting
    United States v. Padilla, 
    415 F.3d 211
    , 224 (1st Cir. 2005)
    (Boudin, C.J., concurring)). Yet the majority persists in the
    face of overwhelming, reliable information supporting Nasir’s
    conviction. Its error stems from a basic misunderstanding of
    the nature of plain-error review. I respectfully dissent from
    Section II.E of the majority opinion.
    24