Mickens-Thomas v. Vaughn , 321 F.3d 374 ( 2003 )


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  •                                                                                                                            Opinions of the United
    2003 Decisions                                                                                                             States Court of Appeals
    for the Third Circuit
    2-21-2003
    Mickens-Thomas v. Vaughn
    Precedential or Non-Precedential: Precedential
    Docket 02-2047
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    Recommended Citation
    "Mickens-Thomas v. Vaughn" (2003). 2003 Decisions. Paper 772.
    http://digitalcommons.law.villanova.edu/thirdcircuit_2003/772
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    PRECEDENTIAL
    Filed February 21, 2003
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE THIRD CIRCUIT
    Nos. 02-2047 & 02-2213
    LOUIS MICKENS-THOMAS
    Appellant in No. 02-2213
    v.
    DONALD VAUGHN, SUPERINTENDENT;
    PENNSYLVANIA BOARD OF PROBATION AND PAROLE;
    THE PENNSYLVANIA BOARD OF PARDONS;
    THE ATTORNEY GENERAL OF THE STATE OF
    PENNSYLVANIA
    Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole
    Appellant in No. 02-2047
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    For the Eastern District of Pennsylvania
    D.C. No.: 99-cv-06161
    District Judge: Honorable Ronald L. Buckwalter
    Argued: December 19, 2002
    Before: SLOVITER, McKEE, and ROSENN, Circuit Judges.
    (Filed February 21, 2003)
    Leonard N. Sosnov (Argued)
    1027 Abington Avenue
    Wyndmoor, PA 19038
    David Rudovsky
    Kairys, Rudovsky, Epstein &
    Messing
    924 Cherry Street, Suite 500
    Philadelphia, PA 19107
    Counsel for Louis Mickens-Thomas
    Syndi L. Guido (Argued)
    Office of General Counsel
    Commonwealth of Pennsylvania
    333 Market Street, 17th Floor
    Harrisburg, PA 17101
    Robert N. Campolongo
    Pennsylvania Board of Probation &
    Parole
    Executive Offices
    1101 South Front Street, Suite 5100
    Harrisburg, PA 17108-1268
    Counsel for Vaughn, PA Bd Prob.
    and Parole, PA Bd Pardons,
    Atty. Gen. PA
    OPINION OF THE COURT
    ROSENN, Circuit Judge:
    This appeal has its genesis in the material modification of
    parole laws by the Pennsylvania legislature in 1996 and
    corresponding changes in the parole decisionmaking
    policies of the Pennsylvania Board of Probation and Parole
    ("Board").1 As a consequence, the post-1996 parole regime
    placed primary consideration on the risk to public safety by
    the parole petitioner as the dominant factor in evaluating
    parole applications. The United States District Court for the
    Eastern District of Pennsylvania held that the Board
    retroactively applied this policy change adversely to the
    _________________________________________________________________
    1. The Board is the only named party electing to participate in this
    appeal, and the only party against whom our judgment in this case
    applies.
    2
    parole applications of Louis Mickens-Thomas ("Thomas"), in
    violation of the Ex Post Facto clause. The Commonwealth
    timely appealed; Thomas cross-appealed on his claim that
    the Board violated his due process rights when it denied his
    parole applications. We affirm.2
    I.
    A. Pre-1996 Parole Considerations in Pennsylvania
    Thomas is currently serving a life sentence for the 1964
    rape and murder of a 12-year-old girl in Philadelphia,
    Pennsylvania. The parties agreed to vacate the original
    guilty verdict because of the unreliability of the expert
    whose testimony connected fibers and microscopic particles
    found on the victim to Thomas. In 1967, the state trial
    court granted Thomas a new trial; in 1969, he was again
    convicted.3 His second conviction was upheld by the
    _________________________________________________________________
    2. The District Court exercised jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. S 2254(a).
    We have appellate jurisdiction under 28 U.S.C. S 2253. Section 2253
    requires that, in habeas appeals where the alleged unlawful detention
    arises out of process issued by a state court, a certificate of appealability
    is required before appeal by a habeas petitioner will be heard. A
    certificate of appealability was issued by the District Court, and thus our
    jurisdiction is proper. Moreover, such a certificate may be unnecessary
    because the Commonwealth initiated the appellate proceedings, and the
    petitioner merely filed a cross-appeal. See Rios v. Wiley, 
    201 F.3d 257
    ,
    262 n.5 (3d Cir. 2000). Although it appears state court recourse was
    exhausted by an appeal to the Pennsylvania Supreme Court, that case
    is not part of this record. However, exhaustion is not jurisdictional and
    is waivable. Narvaiz v. Johnson, 
    134 F.3d 688
    , 693 n.1 (5th Cir. 1998).
    Inasmuch as the Board has not made an issue thereof, exhaustion is
    deemed waived. We exercise plenary review in a habeas proceeding over
    a district court’s legal conclusions, and we review factual findings for
    clear error. 
    Rios, 201 F.3d at 262
    . The relevant facts in the case before
    us are largely undisputed, and our decision rests upon the application
    of the Ex Post Facto clause to the facts at issue. Therefore, our review
    of the District Court is plenary.
    3. More specifically, the first conviction was rejected because the
    prosecution’s lead witness, a technician who matched fibers and debris
    from Thomas’s shoe repair shop to those found on the girl’s body, was
    found to have falsified her credentials and to have perjured herself in
    another case. At the second trial, the technician’s supervisor
    corroborated the technician’s testimony and vouched for the correctness
    of the analysis.
    3
    Pennsylvania Supreme Court in 1972. However, Thomas
    still professes innocence. Thomas is presently 74-years-old
    and has been in prison for nearly 40 years. His current
    efforts to seek release on parole have garnered the strong
    support of prisoner advocates, incurred the equally
    vehement opposition of the Philadelphia District Attorney,
    and have attracted considerable media scrutiny.
    Life sentences in Pennsylvania presumptively exclude any
    possibility of parole. The only exception occurs when the
    governor-appointed Pardons Board recommends
    commutation of the inmate’s sentence by majority vote, and
    the Governor subsequently approves the commutation.
    Thomas was one of only 27 sentences commuted by former
    Governor Casey out of nearly 3000 life terms being served
    during his tenure as governor. By the terms of his
    commutation, Thomas became eligible for parole on July
    21, 1996. In recommending commutation, the Pardons
    Board noted Thomas’s attainment of a college degree, his
    participation in Alcoholics Anonymous, his participation in
    sex-offender therapy, the support of the Corrections
    Department, the long length of time served, the numerous
    recommendations from scholars, religious, and community
    leaders, and Thomas’s overall maturity and stability.
    Following a commutation, a prisoner seeking to be
    released must still submit to the same parole procedures
    applicable to all other prisoners. Furthermore, the parole
    must first be approved by the Board, which virtually has
    unreviewable power to grant or deny the parole application.
    Around the time of Thomas’s eligibility for parole, new
    appointments of then-Governor Ridge were placed on the
    Board in 1995;4 a parolee from the Pennsylvania prison
    system was arrested for murder in New Jersey in 1995; and
    in early 1996 a Pennsylvania Senate committee, in view of
    the New Jersey arrest, strongly recommended that the
    Board place added emphasis on community safety. In
    December 1996, Pennsylvania enacted a change in its law
    concerning the Board’s mission, which arguably placed
    _________________________________________________________________
    4. Three of five members of the Parole Board were Governor Ridge
    appointees in 1995. In 1997, after changes in parole laws increased the
    size of the Board, six out of eight were Ridge appointees.
    4
    greater emphasis on public safety as a criterion for parole
    release.
    In December 1996 the Pennsylvania legislature modified
    the law governing parole in Pennsylvania. The new
    language, inserted into the aspirational introductory
    provision of the Pennsylvania parole statutes, provides that
    the public safety must be considered "first and foremost" in
    the Board’s execution of its mission. The relevant statute,
    in its post-1996 form, provides as follows:5
    S 331.1. Public policy as to parole
    The parole system provides several benefits to the
    criminal justice system, including the provision of
    adequate supervision of the offender while protecting
    the public, the opportunity for the offender to become
    a useful member of society and the diversion of
    appropriate offenders from prison. In providing these
    benefits to the criminal justice system, the board shall
    first and foremost seek to protect the safety of the
    public. In addition to this goal, the board shall address
    input by crime victims and assist in the fair
    administration of justice by ensuring the custody,
    control and treatment of paroled offenders.
    61 P.S. S 331.1
    The 1941-1996 statute, in effect at the time of Thomas’s
    conviction, made no specific mention of public safety. It
    provided:
    The value of parole as a disciplinary and corrective
    influence and process is hereby recognized, and it is
    declared to be the public policy of this Commonwealth
    that persons subject or sentenced to imprisonment for
    crime shall, on release therefrom, be subjected to a
    period of parole during which their rehabilitation,
    adjustment, and restoration to social and economic life
    and activities shall be aided and facilitated by guidance
    and supervision under a competent and efficient parole
    _________________________________________________________________
    5. This provision is a preface to a comprehensive set of rules governing
    parole in Pennsylvania. Other provisions too were changed in 1996, but
    none materially for the purposes of this case.
    5
    administration, and to that end it is the intent of this
    act to create a uniform and exclusive system for the
    administration of parole in this Commonwealth.
    To assess this modification of the statute, one must
    regard this change in the context of recent policy
    statements issued by the Board and other government
    officials. Other events coincident with the 1996 revision
    must also be considered to determine whether, in practice,
    the parole policies of the Commonwealth have undergone
    any substantive changes.6 The Board’s 1989 Manual of
    Operations and Procedures recognized that "[p]robation and
    parole services must consider that offenders can change
    their behavior patterns when desirous, capable, and given
    the opportunity, help, dignity, and respect they deserve as
    human beings." App. 284. The Manual goes on to state
    that, in considering an inmate for parole, the Board must
    "weigh[ ] numerous factors relative to the welfare of the
    client and the safety of the community," including
    seriousness of the offense; length of the sentence;
    institutional adjustment (behavior and program
    adjustment); and assessment of the effect of rehabilitation
    services while incarcerated. Whether the individual can be
    safely supervised in the community, personality
    characteristics, any history of family violence, strength of
    the parole plan (home and employment), testimony from
    victims, and opinions of the sentencing judge and
    prosecuting attorney must also be considered.
    In reaching its parole decision, "[t]he Board. . . feel[s]
    that an individual should be given every consideration for
    parole at the expiration of the minimum sentence." App.
    285. The 1990 Board-authored "Parole Decision Making
    Guidelines: A Statement on Policy Procedure and
    Philosophy," stated that "[a]n eligibility for parole expresses
    a philosophy of presumed release unless information
    _________________________________________________________________
    6. The Board argues that the statutory provision pertains only to
    supervision of inmates previously granted parole, and not to the
    determination of parole eligibility. However, even if this were so, the plain
    language of the statute is merely one barometer of a change in parole
    policy. Accordingly, we look to all the Board’s actions and statements of
    policy to determine how it interpreted the statutory provisions.
    6
    reviewed demonstrates by its preponderance that the public
    safety interests of the community outweigh the liberty
    interests of the inmate." App. 243.
    A decisional protocol called the "Parole Decision Making
    Guidelines" played a critical role in the Board’s
    decisionmaking process pre-1996. The Guidelines provided
    an objective prediction of the likelihood of a successful
    parole by assigning numerical values to various criteria,
    based on historical patterns of parolee recidivism rates.
    According to the Board authored 1991 "Guidelines: A
    Special Report Prepared for the House Judiciary
    Committee," the Guidelines considered factors which, based
    on a study of past instances of recidivism, were predictors
    of future recidivism in potential parolees. App. 256. For
    example, historically, those convicted of theft offenses have
    high recidivism rates. Thus, they are assigned a higher
    score; similarly, substance abusers are high recidivists, and
    correspondingly, they have higher scores assigned in the
    Guidelines. If enough of these negative predictors are
    present, the aggregate score will fall above a threshold
    value, and the Guidelines will recommend against parole.
    App. 246.
    In addition to risk of recidivism, "risk to the community"
    is also a relevant factor under the Guidelines in
    determining whether parole is warranted. App. 252. Thus
    the Guidelines, in addition to calculating the risk of
    recidivism, add additional points for offenders whose post-
    parole conduct might include violent behavior, categorizing
    them as having "high assaultive behavior potential." App.
    52. Therefore, a person who initially committed a violent
    crime will be evaluated as a parole candidate under the
    Guidelines, based upon his or her risk to the public as a
    function of both the likelihood of recidivism and the severity
    of the crime he or she might commit as a recidivist. The
    Board’s 1990 Statement on Policy Procedure and
    Philosophy notes that
    [i]nherent in the concept of risk management is the
    notion that some crimes, although less likely to be
    repeated, have more serious consequences than others
    if repeated. In other words, although some offenders
    may be low risk from the viewpoint of recidivism and
    7
    parole supervision failure, the stakes are high in terms
    of protecting the public if their new crime is violent or
    serious in nature.
    App. 246.
    According to the House Judiciary Report, the Guidelines
    are "related to an empirically sound, criterion-referenced
    policy assessment which evaluates each inmate in terms of
    criminal justice policy and normative past practice in parole
    decision making." App. 256. Although the Guidelines aspire
    to objectivity in parole decision making, the Board
    periodically has countermanded their recommendations.
    The 1990 Statement on Policy, Procedure and Philosophy
    declared that the Guidelines protocol typically determined
    "approximately eighty percent of the decisions rendered."
    App. 247. The Statement notes, however "that the
    structuring of discretion does not eliminate it; the burden
    of the decision remains with the decision maker to evaluate
    the merit of each case." App. 249.
    Thus, before 1996, about 20% of such decisions were
    decided contrary to the Guidelines recommendation.
    Nonetheless, a discretionary Guidelines departure must
    give full weight to all the factors, both for and against
    release. The Report stated that decisions which
    countermand the Guidelines are "rarities," and"require
    written explanation to justify the policy exception." In
    reaching a decision outside the Guidelines, the Board
    cannot merely recite factors already incorporated in the
    Guidelines analysis; instead it must consider
    "consequential characteristics" of the applicant that are
    "objectively unique" to the factors already incorporated into
    the Guidelines analysis.7 App. 254. A Guidelines worksheet
    is provided along with the formal numerical protocol, to
    permit elucidation of non-Guidelines factors reached in a
    parole decision, as well as a checklist (Part IV.B. of the
    Guidelines) for designation of common non-Guidelines
    _________________________________________________________________
    7. Factors considered within the Guidelines analysis include substance
    abuse, prison misconduct, nature of the underlying offense, and victim
    injury.
    8
    factors which may have been significant in reaching a
    decision contrary to the Guidelines recommendation. 8
    In early 1995, Robert "Mudman" Simon, who had been
    released on parole from his Pennsylvania prison sentence,
    was arrested and charged with murder in New Jersey. 9 In
    mid-1995 Simon’s release led to the publication of a
    "System-Wide Assessment" of the Board, by the
    Pennsylvania Inspector General, in which it was determined
    that more emphasis on public safety and on the nature of
    the underlying crime was needed in making parole
    decisions. The System-Wide Assessment noted that the
    Board management generally "has emphasized [inmate]
    interests over community protection," and that one faction
    of Board officials perceives "reintegration into society [as]
    the primary mission," while another faction "focuses . . . on
    the protection of society." App. 297.
    The Chairman of the Pennsylvania Senate Judiciary
    Committee, reporting on the investigation of the parole of
    Simon, published in February 1996, noted that following a
    1989 prison riot in Pennsylvania, "reduction in prison
    overcrowding through the parole process became an
    objective of [the Board] coequal with assuring public
    safety." App. 326. The Report also noted that the Board
    recently "has set out to establish public safety as a priority
    including a more careful review of parole eligible cases."
    App. 343. Accordingly, the Report recommended that
    "[e]xisting statutes and policies should be looked at,
    amended, restated and/or purged as necessary to
    effectuate the new corrections philosophy of Pennsylvania
    [emphasizing] public safety. . . ." App. 351 (emphasis
    added.)
    _________________________________________________________________
    8. These factors include the presence of psychotic or dangerous
    behavioral characteristics manifested during the parole interview; recent
    psychiatric reports causing concern; a pattern of habitual offense of
    assaultive crimes; or an unfavorable recommendation from the
    Department of Corrections staff.
    9. Former Governor Ridge made a campaign issue of the commutation
    and release of Reginald McFadden, who also ended up killing again upon
    his parole in 1994. This was considered by some to be instrumental in
    the defeat of Ridge’s opponent, then-Lt. Governor Singel, who, as a
    member of the Pardons Board, had voted to release McFadden.
    9
    The Board’s self-assessment report, entitled "Fiscal Years
    1995-1997 Biennial Report," stated that "[i]n recent years,
    the Governor and General Assembly have mandated
    through statute that the foremost concern for the Board
    must be the protection of the safety of the public .. . ." The
    Report went on to note recent "heightened awareness and
    concern for public safety," which prompted it to institute
    more careful review procedures for cases involving"violent
    offenders." App. 219. Thus, both the Judiciary Committee
    Report of February 1996 and the contemporaneous
    Biennial Report gave public notice that henceforth the
    "foremost concern" of the Board would be the safety of the
    public.
    B. Thomas’s Parole Applications
    We now turn to the effect of the Board’s new policy on
    Thomas’s parole application. When Governor Casey
    commuted Thomas’s sentence, he authorized the
    Department of Corrections to "prerelease" Thomas,
    presumably into a transitional facility, prior to Thomas’s
    parole-eligibility date. This the Corrections Department
    declined to do. App. 663. Then, in the Board’s first review
    of Thomas’s case in September 1996, it also declined to
    parole him on the ground that, under the new law passed
    in 1995, "prerelease" was made a necessary precondition of
    parole. The Commonwealth Court heard Thomas’s
    mandamus action in which he sought to direct the Board to
    hear his parole petition. In that case, the Board conceded
    that its application of the "prerelease" law violated the Ex
    Post Facto clause. The court remanded the case to the
    Board, and ordered it to hear the merits of the parole
    application and issue its decision within 10 days. See
    Mickens-Thomas v. Pennsylvania Board of Probation and
    Parole, 
    699 A.2d 792
    (Pa. Commw. Ct. 1997).
    Soon thereafter, in August 1997, the Board issued its
    decision, relying in part on its Decision Making Guidelines
    to reach a conclusion as to parole eligibility. 10 Thomas
    _________________________________________________________________
    10. The Guidelines manual states that they were"designed to represent
    observable standards of justice in making decisions and to link behavior
    with societal sanctions in a clearer manner. . . . A process of structured
    review acts to balance the inmate’s liberty interest with the interests of
    society for a safe and secure community."
    10
    received a Guidelines-based recommendation for release,
    App. 432, along with the recommendations of all voting
    Department of Corrections institutional staff, including the
    prison counselor and housing officer. See Department of
    Corrections Vote Sheet, March 11, 1996, App. 631. Thomas
    demonstrated his participation in pre-release counseling,
    including Alcoholics Anonymous and sex offender therapy,
    as well as participation in college courses and job training.
    Thomas also had post-release support networks in place.
    App. 44. Nonetheless, the Board denied Thomas parole in
    1997. The Board stated its reasons for the denial in a
    formal letter to Thomas called the "Board Decision." The
    reasons given were as follows: "Assaultive instant offense.
    Very high assaultive behavior potential. Victim injury.
    Unfavorable recommendation from District Attorney.
    Conviction of prior assault offense." App. 441. Many of
    these factors were automatic designations; for example,
    Thomas’s past crime was a sex offense, which caused him
    to be automatically classified on the Board Decision as
    having "very high assaultive behavior potential." App. 52;
    Board Reply Brief 14.
    The Board’s 1997 Decision urged Thomas to secure the
    following before his next application review: investigation of
    a home plan; the availability of out-patient sex-offender
    treatment; participation in a program plan prescribed by
    Department of Corrections officials; maintenance of a good
    conduct record; a continuing institutional recommendation
    for parole; and an evaluation by mental health
    professionals, with experience with sex offenders. The
    Board made these recommendations in spite of Thomas’s
    apparent compliance with all of the Board’s suggestions
    prior to the hearing. For example, he had a good conduct
    record and the endorsement of prison staff.
    The Board urged a psychiatric examination, despite the
    existence of a pre-commutation 1993 psychiatric report
    supporting Thomas’s release.11 There were other
    _________________________________________________________________
    11. In particular, the Board seemed concerned, in its 1997 Guidelines
    worksheet, that Thomas had only undergone psychological, and not
    psychiatric evaluations. This 1993 report, authored by a psychiatrist,
    belies the Board’s claim that Thomas had never received a psychiatric
    evaluation.
    11
    psychological evaluations in his file that did not
    contraindicate release. Although Thomas had engaged in
    sex offender therapy, there is some indication, based on
    handwritten notes on the Board’s decision making
    worksheet, that the Board may have been troubled by
    Thomas’s presence in a "deniers" group -- those who deny
    responsibility for the underlying offense -- rather than an
    "admitters" group. App. 434. The Board Decision makes no
    specific mention of the admitter-denier distinction, and its
    internal notes make only passing mention of the issue.12
    Later, in 1997, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court heard
    Thomas’s habeas petition but summarily denied it.
    Thereafter, Thomas apparently complied with all of the
    Board’s prerequisites stated in its 1997 Decision. He
    maintained the positive recommendation of corrections
    authorities, who once more unanimously recommended his
    release and noted that he was in compliance with treatment
    programs. The prison counselor, corrections officer and
    psychologist all endorsed his release. App. 634. He
    continued to participate in a sex-offender therapy program
    -- although it was a "deniers" program -- along with an
    Alcoholics Anonymous program. Post-release support
    networks were in place. And the Guidelines assigned
    Thomas a risk-assessment score which militated in favor of
    release. App. 424.
    Despite his compliance with essentially all of the Board’s
    conditions, it again denied parole in March 1998, stating:
    "Assaultive instant offense. Very high assaultive behavior
    potential. Victim injury. Your need for counseling and
    treatment." App. 440. In this latest Board Decision, it again
    advised Thomas to seek counseling and treatment, to
    participate in prescribed programming, to maintain a clean
    record and obtain institutional recommendation for the
    purposes of his next application. Unlike the 1997 decision,
    the 1998 decision recommended no specific sex offender
    treatment, nor mentioned in its internal decision making
    _________________________________________________________________
    12. The Board is not required to give every reason for its denial on the
    Board Decision. App. 248. However, its internal notes fail to show that
    it considered the admitter-denier problem to be a serious matter. The
    issue is merely mentioned in a neutral way.
    12
    worksheet that Thomas was in a "denier" group. Moreover,
    despite the comment that Thomas needed "counseling and
    treatment," psychiatric and psychological evaluations did
    not contraindicate his release. Presumably in response to
    the 1997 Board Decision’s admonition that Thomas needed
    to be evaluated by a mental health professional, the Board
    noted, in its worksheet, that a 1998 psychological
    evaluation showed Thomas to be an "average risk
    candidate." App. 426. The Department of Corrections
    psychologist, in the 1998 Vote Sheet, noted "No
    Psychological Contraindications" for release. App. 634.
    A 1996 psychological evaluation did show an "antisocial
    personality," and "possible sexual preoccupation and
    psychosexual immaturity." App. 623. However, the
    decisionmaking worksheet does not reflect that the Board
    was deeply concerned with those findings, and instead only
    made mention, in a handwritten notation, of the 1998
    psychological report’s conclusion that Thomas was an
    "average risk candidate." No notation was made of two
    earlier psychological evaluations, which had more clearly
    favored release. One 1993 report called Thomas "a good
    candidate for commutation from the psychological
    perspective." App. 649a. A second 1993 psychiatric report
    added there was no "psychiatric contraindication[to
    commutation]" and that Thomas "has developed
    significantly during his years of imprisonment." App. 650.
    In December 1999, Thomas sought a writ of habeas corpus
    in the United States District Court.
    Again, the Board denied his parole in 2000, during the
    pendency of these habeas corpus proceedings. The Board
    gave as its reason the cryptic statement that it"has
    determined that the mandates to protect the safety of the
    public and to assist in the fair administration of justice
    cannot be achieved through your release on parole." App.
    439. Again, all voting members of the Department of
    Corrections institutional staff, including his counselor and
    work supervisor, unanimously recommended his parole.
    App. 624. Again, he demonstrated a continued record of
    good conduct in prison and participation in sex offender
    therapy and all other programming prescribed by the
    Department of Corrections. Nonetheless, the Board denied
    13
    parole. Again, the Board advised Thomas to maintain his
    Department of Corrections recommendation as a
    precondition for consideration at his 2002 parole hearing.
    But, in 2000 the Board revived its 1997 recommendation
    that Thomas should undergo sex offender therapy as a
    suggested pre-condition for release. Handwritten notes
    again show that the Board may have been concerned that
    he was in a "denier" group -- although, once more, no
    mention of this concern is made in the formal Board
    Decision. The lack of admitter therapy is simply stated in a
    neutral, non-critical way in the Guidelines worksheet. App.
    415.
    Finally, although the decision-making guidelines had
    assigned Thomas a favorability score that counseled in
    favor of parole on both the 1997 and 1998 applications, the
    2000 decision, despite no evidence of changes in his
    situation, reached a different outcome. App. 414. The Board
    interviewer classified Thomas as a habitual substance
    abuser on the Guidelines form, which increased Thomas’s
    risk score by 3 and placed him in an unfavorable category
    for release. The Board did not indicate why it made this
    material alteration to what appears to be a boilerplate risk-
    assessment protocol. Thomas apparently did have a record
    of alcohol abuse prior to his incarceration in 1964 (for
    which he attended Alcoholics Anonymous while in prison)
    but it is unclear why, if past alcohol abuse over forty years
    ago was a relevant factor, it had not been considered on his
    two prior Guidelines evaluations.
    Moreover, the Guidelines were modified since his last
    application, with a score of 2 now added to Thomas’s
    overall score as a result of "Victim Injury" (the past two
    evaluation forms assigned only a score of "1" for Victim
    Injury). As a direct result of these changes Thomas’s score
    ascended to nine, placing him in a category exceeding
    seven. Therefore, the Guidelines contraindicated parole. In
    summary, the Board denied Thomas parole a total of three
    times, in 1997, 1998 and 2000, although he complied each
    time with all of the Board’s recommendations, except for
    his continued enrollment in the deniers group. The Board
    denied parole to Thomas alone of all 266 prisoners whose
    life sentences had been commuted.
    14
    In Thomas’s current habeas petition, he alleges that the
    Board denied his parole in violation of the Ex Post Facto
    clause, by applying retroactively the revised December 1996
    parole statute. According to Thomas, he had a
    constitutional expectation that his parole petition would be
    evaluated under the laws in effect when he was convicted.
    The District Court agreed that the Board violated the Ex
    Post Facto clause by applying the 1996 statutory mandate.
    However, the Court declined to rule outright that Thomas
    would have been paroled under the prior rule; instead, it
    remanded the case to the Parole Board to rehear the matter
    under the pre-1996 laws. Thomas also asked that the
    District Court order his release on the grounds that his due
    process rights were violated. The District Court held that,
    although Thomas had complied with all the seeming
    prerequisites for relief as prescribed by the Board, the
    presence of any evidence sufficient to show that the Board
    based its decision on a rational and good faith exercise of
    discretion, vindicated its action. Thus, the District Court
    concluded, there was no due process violation. See
    Mickens-Thomas v. Vaughn, 
    217 F. Supp. 2d 570
    (E.D. Pa.
    2002).
    The District Court remanded the case to the Board to
    apply its pre-1996 parole policies to the Thomas petition.
    The Board appealed, and Thomas cross-appealed, on the
    denial of his due process claim and on the court’s failure to
    grant him release outright as a result of the Ex Post Facto
    violation.
    II. Ex Post Facto Violation
    A. The New Parole Policy of 1996
    The Ex Post Facto clause of the United States
    Constitution applies to a statutory or policy change that
    "alters the definition of criminal conduct or increases the
    penalty by which a crime is punishable." California Dep’t of
    Corrections v. Morales, 
    514 U.S. 499
    , 506 n.3 (1995). A new
    law or policy violates the Ex Post Facto clause (1) when it
    is retrospective, i.e., when it "appl[ies] to events occurring
    before its enactment," and (2) when it "disadvantage[s] the
    15
    offender affected by it." Weaver v. Graham , 
    450 U.S. 24
    , 29
    (1981); see Coady v. Vaughn, 
    251 F.3d 480
    , 488 (3d Cir.
    2001). As to the first criterion for an Ex Post Facto
    violation, the Board strenuously argues in its brief (p. 14)
    that "the 1996 amendments . . . did not change the Board’s
    standards for determining parole." First, it asserts that
    Pennsylvania’s statement of public policy for parole, 61 P.S.
    S 331.1, refers to the supervision of parolees, rather than to
    conditions of release.
    The foregoing argument has little merit. The statute
    unequivocally has been interpreted by Pennsylvania courts
    to express broad and general aspirations of Pennsylvania’s
    parole policy. See Stewart v. Pennsylvania Bd. of Probation
    and Parole, 
    714 A.2d 502
    , 508 (Pa. Commw. Ct. 1998)
    ("Section 1 of the Parole Act, 61 P.S. SS 331.1, . . .
    enunciates the state’s public policy concerning parole
    . . . ."). The essential matter before us is not whether the
    statute on its face pertains to parole decisionmaking, but
    whether, in practice, the new language has altered the
    fundament for reviewing parole applications. See Garner v.
    Jones, 
    529 U.S. 244
    , 256 (2000). We look beyond the
    language of the statute and examine the Board’s
    pronouncements of policy and its public statements that
    shed light on the interpretation of its statutory mandate.
    These suggest that after 1996 the Board gave foremost
    importance to the public safety factor. This is confirmed by
    the report in the September 20, 2000 Harrisburg Patriot-
    News, when then-Board chairman William Ward observed
    that legislative changes around 1995 recast the Board’s
    mission to put public safety first.
    The Board also asserts that its policy historically has
    placed equal emphasis on the interests of the inmate and
    the interests of public safety, and it points in its brief to us
    to statutory language in effect in the 1940s to prove this
    point: "whenever in its opinion [1] the best interests of the
    convict justify or require his being paroled and[2] it does
    not appear that the interest of the Commonwealth will be
    injured thereby," a prisoner will be granted parole. Board
    Brief at 11-12. The Board correctly notes that the potential
    risk to public safety in granting parole has always been a
    consideration in the decisional process. It claims that other
    16
    provisions of the parole statute have, under both the earlier
    and the current versions, required that the Board"consider
    the nature and circumstances of the offense committed,
    [and] the general character and background of the
    prisoner." 61 P.S. S 331.19.13 However, to state that public
    safety was always a consideration does not mean that the
    Board gave it the same weight after 1996 in the decisional
    equation.
    The record is convincing that after 1996, the Board
    applied to the public safety interest far greater weight. The
    evidence here demonstrates that since 1996, the Board has
    given special weight to the risk to public safety. Pre-1996,
    a prisoner could be denied parole because of public safety
    concerns only if those concerns together with other relevant
    factors outweighed, by a preponderance, the liberty
    interests of the inmate. The 1996 policy change placed first
    and foremost the public safety to the disadvantage of the
    remaining liberty interest of the prisoner.
    The Pennsylvania courts have suggested that the 1996
    public safety directive has caused the Board to review the
    petitions of violent offenders with redoubled scrutiny: "As a
    result [of statutory and policy changes in 1996], violent
    offenders are subjected to a more stringent standard of
    review for parole eligibility than nonviolent offenders. The
    _________________________________________________________________
    13. The provision provides in pertinent part:
    It shall be the duty of the board . . . to consider the nature and
    circumstances of the offense committed, any recommendations
    made by the trial judge and prosecuting attorney, the general
    character and background of the prisoner, participation by a
    prisoner who is serving a sentence for a crime of violence as defined
    in 42 Pa.C.S. SS 9714(g) (relating to sentences for second and
    subsequent offenses) in a victim impact education program offered
    by the Department of Corrections and . . . the testimony of the
    victim or the victim’s family . . . . The board shall further consider
    the notes of testimony of the sentencing hearing, if any, together
    with such additional information regarding the nature and
    circumstances of the offense committed for which sentence was
    imposed as may be available. The board shall further cause the
    conduct of the person while in prison and his physical, mental and
    behavior condition and history, his history of family violence and his
    complete criminal record . . . to be reported and investigated.
    17
    purpose behind the classification and the disparate
    treatment between the violent and nonviolent offenders is
    the protection of public safety." Myers v. Ridge, 
    712 A.2d 791
    , 799 (Pa. Commw. Ct. 1998). Furthermore, the policy
    change around 1996 took place in the ambience of
    numerous policy statements that shed light on the Board’s
    interpretation of its statutory mission: it clearly viewed its
    statutory mandate to require special emphasis on public
    safety.
    Our attention is directed to the 50th Anniversary Report
    of the Board (1991), which states in its concluding
    paragraph that "protection of society" is the Board’s
    "primary goal." App. 187. Read in context, however, this
    passage applies to the Board’s supervision of parolees. This
    same passage provided that "conditional release" permits
    the Board to meet its goal of protecting society. An earlier
    section of the document states that "[t]he immediate goal of
    parole supervision is the protection of society," by closely
    supervising the parolee and setting "conditions" for
    continued release, pertaining to work, health, education or
    other needs, that ensure smooth reintegration and, hence,
    the public safety. App. 185 (emphasis added). Upon
    analyzing this language, it is obvious that the Board meant
    in this report that "conditional release," with fixed
    conditions for continued parole, is designed to safeguard
    the public after a parole has been granted. Thus, this 1991
    anniversary report sheds no light on the post-1996 Board
    treatment of "public safety" as a factor before parole is
    granted.
    The statistical evidence is quite staggering here, and
    strongly confirms the change in policy in 1996: of the 266
    historical instances of commuted sentences on which the
    Board has kept records, all were granted parole on the first
    or second application. Many, if not most, of these original
    sentences were for violent crimes. Doubtless, these earlier
    Parole Boards spanned a wide spectrum of political and
    penological philosophies. Yet, the gubernatorial grant of
    commutation of sentence had such significance that the
    Board agreed to parole every commutee on his or her first
    or second application. The Thomas application is
    distinguished from these 266 cases only by the intervening
    policy directive of 1996, emphasizing public safety.
    18
    In addition to these statistics, substantive declarations of
    Board policy strongly support the proposition that, after
    1996, the Board applied a new standard. A 1996 report by
    the Legislative Judiciary Committee strongly exhorted the
    Board to reform its parole policies by placing greater stress
    on public safety. A 1997 self-assessment by the Board
    specifically noted that during the 1995-1997 period, public
    safety became the Board’s new "foremost concern." The new
    Guidelines, implemented between 1998 and 2000, placed
    more weight on "Victim Injury." The 2000 Board Decision
    denying Thomas’s parole noted that its action was
    consistent with the Board’s "mandate" to protect the public.
    This language did not appear on earlier Board decisions
    and reflects its new parole policy.
    These declarations stand in bold contrast to the pre-1996
    policies, which commanded that the Board give weight to
    various factors in the parole process, such as Department
    of Corrections staff recommendations, educational
    accomplishments, job training, and therapy programs. This
    factor-based approach strongly suggests that dispositive
    weight should not be given to any one factor.14 Pre-1996,
    release upon eligibility for parole was presumed, and any
    decision to deny parole based on public safety
    considerations had to be supported by specific reasons,
    which outweighed those factors favoring release. Prior to
    1996, a Board recommendation contrary to the Guidelines
    required that the Board have "appropriate reasons for [its
    parole denial] decision." Because the pre-1996 Guidelines
    already factored in the risk to public safety vis-a-vis
    relevant recidivism indicators, the Board after 1996 could
    not give added, and certainly not exclusive, weight to public
    safety in overruling the Guidelines.
    We conclude, then, that prior to 1996, the Board’s
    concern for potential risks to public safety could not be the
    sole or dominant basis for parole denial under the existing
    Guidelines. Considerations of public safety were already
    _________________________________________________________________
    14. The Guidelines themselves embody this philosophy. They are
    designed so that: "No single reason-for-refusal will justify the denial of
    parole: a preponderance of negative reasons will countervail release."
    App. 253.
    19
    incorporated into its Guidelines analysis; the Board had to
    point to "unique" factors as a basis for its rejection of the
    Guidelines. Moreover, the Board had to weigh all factors,
    militating for and against parole, and make its decision on
    the totality of the factors pertinent to parole, and give
    appropriate weight to the interests of the inmate. Heavy foot
    application on one factor could not have been the basis of
    granting or rejecting parole. Policy declarations in and after
    1996 demonstrate that Board stance shifted and that,
    indeed, post-1996 considerations of public safety became
    the dominant concern of the Board.
    B. Application of New 1996 Policy to Thomas
    The possession of a discretionary component in a parole
    policy does not per se exempt it from constitutional
    scrutiny. "The presence of discretion does not displace the
    protections of the Ex Post Facto clause." 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 253
    ; cf. Winsett v. McGinnes, 
    617 F.2d 996
    , 1007 (3d Cir.
    1980) (en banc) (holding that prison officials’"discretion
    must be exercised consistently with the purpose and policy"
    governing early release program to satisfy due process). A
    Parole Board policy, although partly discretionary, is still
    subject to ex post facto analysis when there are sufficiently
    discernible criteria to suggest to a reviewing body that the
    new retroactive policies are being applied against the
    offender’s interest.
    In this case, as in our Winsett decision, a prison release
    authority is not permitted to circumvent its constitutional
    obligations merely because it has some discretion:"[I]t is by
    no means clear that the [relevant authorities] may, under
    the rules, invoke any criterion [they] choose[ ]." 
    Winsett, 617 F.2d at 1006
    . Rather, the Board has, by both its past
    decisions to grant parole for commuted sentences, and by
    its formal declarations of policy, expounded discernible
    parameters that govern its discretion. See id . Here, the
    changes in parole policy can be shown to have been applied
    to Thomas’s parole application, even though the Board
    possessed some discretion both before and after the 1996
    policy change.
    Although we are unable to express precisely what moved
    the Board to deny Thomas’s petition, there is significant
    20
    evidence that it acted upon policies that were established
    after Thomas’s crime and conviction. Although discretion
    inheres within the Board’s parole authority, and new Board
    members may carry new ideas regarding the exercise of
    that discretion, and old Board members may change their
    mind in the light of new considerations, Thomas is
    nevertheless entitled to have the Board give genuine
    consideration and due regard to the factors prescribed by
    the Board’s pre-1996 policies. We agree that the Board is
    entitled to learn from past experiences and mistakes. Board
    Brief at 17. This is so, just as a legislature might determine
    sentences for some crimes are too light and order judges to
    weigh certain factors more heavily in rendering a sentence.
    That a Board or legislature may learn from experience does
    not mean that those who were sentenced at an earlier
    juncture may now be more severely re-sentenced in the
    light of newly-found wisdom. This is precisely what the Ex
    Post Facto clause prohibits. Under the Board’s reasoning, a
    determination, founded on newly discovered experience,
    could, by virtue of the Board’s exalted discretion, forever
    deny a prisoner’s preexisting right to parole consideration.
    Although some discretion might still exist within the pre-
    1996 parameters, a parole decision that fails to address any
    of the criteria mandated by Board policy, such as
    institutional recommendations, willingness to undergo
    counseling and educational achievement, and instead
    utterly ignores all factors counseling in favor of release,
    falls outside of the realm of the legitimate exercise of
    discretion under the pre-1996 policies. Inference instructs
    us that the Board inappropriately relied on policies
    implemented in 1996, rather than the parole policies in
    place at the time of Thomas’s crime and conviction.
    In its briefs to this court, the Board purports to have
    reasons apart from public safety for its Thomas decisions.
    Those reasons appear to be asserted primarily as a post
    hoc defense to the allegations made in these proceedings.
    The Board argues that Thomas’s "instant assault offense"
    and "very high assaultive potential," both functions of the
    nature of the past crime, were not the primary bases on
    which the decision to deny parole was made. It claims that,
    upon reading Thomas’s file, "it is easy to see why the Board
    21
    found the [arguments against releasing Thomas] so
    persuasive." Board Reply Brief at 21. It asserts that
    numerous reasons were considered in support of its
    decision, including an unfavorable recommendation from
    the District Attorney, lack of sex offender therapy, and
    questionable psychological evaluations. However, these
    were not bona fide considerations in the decisions to deny
    parole. Our analysis shows that the primary basis for the
    parole denials was the risk of potential harm to public
    safety.
    Under the Guidelines, Thomas was entitled to parole at
    his hearings in both 1997 and 1998. He is the only
    prisoner out of 266 commuted sentences who was not
    granted parole in his first or second application. The voting
    members of the Department of Corrections staff
    unanimously recommended Thomas for release at each
    application. The pre-1996 policies place significant weight
    on factors relating to an inmate’s potential to adapt to life
    on the outside, and on the recommendations of the
    institutional staff. The pre-1996 policies suggest that no
    single factor should be controlling in a decision to deny
    parole to an applicant. Moreover, the pre-1996 Decision
    Making Guidelines were given significant, although not
    dispositive weight. A departure from the Guidelines
    required a recitation of unique factors, outweighing those in
    the Guidelines analysis. The Board Decisions on each of
    Thomas’s parole hearings rely heavily on "high assaultive
    behavior potential," which relates primarily to the nature of
    the original offense, despite many other significant factors
    favoring parole.
    Thus, reviewing the pre-1996 documents pertaining to
    parole, it becomes evident that, although the risk of
    potential danger to the public has always been a factor, it
    became the controlling feature of the Board’s decision after
    1996. The Board defaulted in its duty to consider factors
    other than the underlying offense and risk to public safety;
    it has failed to address any of the factors favoring release.
    C. Board Decisions
    In 1997, after the Department of Corrections denied
    Thomas pre-release, soon thereafter the Board denied
    22
    Thomas parole on the very ground that he had not
    undergone a pre-release phase. The statutory pre-release
    requirement was adopted after Thomas’s sentence was
    commuted. The Board later conceded in a state court suit
    initiated by Thomas that the law concerning the pre-release
    requirement should not have been applied to him. The
    Board’s actions in this respect conveniently disregarded the
    Ex Post Facto clause to support its decision to deny parole.
    We have carefully analyzed the Board’s reports of
    disposition of Thomas’s parole applications. The Board’s
    1997 and 1998 Decisions denied Thomas parole on the
    basis of several summary factors, including the severity of
    his underlying offense, his potential for future assaults, a
    prior assault offense, adverse recommendation from the
    District Attorney,15 and Thomas’s need for counseling and
    treatment. The Board also set forth suggestions,
    presumably to improve Thomas’s next effort for parole,
    including participation in prescriptive programming, good
    prison conduct, sex offender therapy, and positive
    psychological evaluations. All of these appear to have been
    met prior to the 1997 and 1998 decisions: All voting
    officials from the Department of Corrections recommended
    parole in both 1997 and 1998; he had complied with all
    prescriptive programming; a 1993 psychological and a
    psychiatric evaluation, made in anticipation of his
    commutation hearing, recommended release. The 1998
    Department of Corrections Vote Sheet showed "No
    Psychological Contraindications" to release; he had
    participated in sex offender therapy; he had job training;
    and he had a post-release support network in place. Rather
    than explain in what manner its recommendations had not
    been met, or what additional steps needed to be taken, or
    whether some insurmountable barrier existed to Thomas’s
    parole, the Board essentially reiterated the same
    recommendations for improving Thomas’s parole candidacy
    in each subsequent Decision.
    Given its indifference to Thomas’s efforts to improve his
    _________________________________________________________________
    15. We discount the 1997 Board Decision’s reliance on the District
    Attorney’s recommendation because it does not reappear on any later
    Board Decisions.
    23
    parole candidacy, and its repeated reliance on Thomas’s
    "instant offense" and his potential for future"assaultive
    behavior," despite the Guidelines’ finding that Thomas was
    not a recidivism risk, the Board appeared to rely exclusively
    on the nature of the underlying offense and the potential
    danger to the public if Thomas were released. However, the
    Board, in its briefs to this court, suggested it had other
    reasons than public safety, and submitted that Thomas
    had only participated in "denier" sex offender therapy,
    rather than "admitter" therapy; that is, he was engaged in
    a form of therapy for offenders who refused to admit their
    crimes. This concern did not appear in the formal Board
    Decisions and, therefore, must be disregarded.
    The Board’s own internal notes shed light on its
    deliberations in this regard. We recognize that the Board is
    not required to share its specific reasons for denying parole.
    The Board’s internal files in 1997 and 2000, however,
    merely noted, in a neutral way, that Thomas participated
    only in denier therapy and denied guilt for his crime
    without further comment or discussion of how this factor
    may have outweighed others favoring release. Significantly,
    the Board in 1997 and 1998 failed to mention lack of
    responsibility (or any other factor) in the section of the
    Guidelines worksheet where specific space is allotted to
    provide unique reasons for departing from a Guidelines
    recommendation. Instead, we have only the terse Board
    Decision and the Board’s handwritten notes from which to
    glean its rationale for the parole denial.
    In contrast to the scrawled notation of Thomas’s lack of
    admitter therapy in its 1997 and 2000 worksheets, the
    Board underscores this point now in its briefs to us.
    Similarly, it discusses in its briefs how the benefits of the
    inmate sex offender therapy program are not fully realized,
    unless the inmate admits guilt for his or her crimes.
    However, the original, official deliberations showed that the
    Board failed to consider these matters at the times it
    reviewed Thomas’s applications.
    Moreover, the recommendation that Thomas receive sex
    offender therapy, which appeared on the 1997 report, did
    not appear on the 1998 Decision or worksheet. Then,
    inexplicably, the recommendation for sex offender therapy
    24
    reappeared on Thomas’s 2000 parole-refusal report. This
    casts still more doubt on the genuineness of the concern. It
    is also not clear that the Board’s renewed concern over
    Thomas’s "denier" therapy was ever properly communicated
    to Thomas, given that the reasons for denial in the Board
    Decision are vague and boilerplate. They nowhere mention
    the admitter-denier issue.
    According to its briefs, the Board, in its 1998 and 2000
    Decisions, may have relied on a 1996 psychological report
    that showed "evidence of possible sexual preoccupation and
    psychosexual immaturity," as well as an "antisocial
    personality." Board Reply Brief at 26. However, there is no
    evidence that the report recommended against release, and
    the Board never weighed explicitly the report against the
    balance of all the other favorable recommendations for
    release by counselors and corrections staff. No reference
    was made to two 1993 pre-commutation reports by a
    psychologist and a psychiatrist, respectively, both strongly
    recommending commutation.
    Furthermore, a 1999 psychological report, although
    acknowledging the negative factors cited in the 1996 report,
    never expressly recommended against release. On the
    contrary, the report made suggestions as to how to
    structure Thomas’s parole once granted. App. 623.
    Meanwhile, a prison psychologist, on the 1998 Department
    of Corrections Vote Sheet, recommended release and noted
    that there were "no psychological contraindications" against
    release. The Board’s own worksheet in 1998 merely noted
    that psychological evaluations showed Thomas to be an
    "average risk candidate."
    In addition, many of the factors listed in the 1997 and
    1998 Decisions were automatic designations. For example,
    "very high assaultive behavior potential" is assigned to a
    parole applicant whenever an applicant is convicted of a
    sexual offense. There is no indication whatever that the
    Board seriously contemplated the gravity of the public
    safety threat; nor is there any evidence that the Board
    followed its own procedures by pointing to factors
    independent of the Guidelines that counseled against
    granting parole.
    25
    In 2000, the Board again denied Thomas’s parole, this
    time because "the mandates to protect the safety of the
    public and to assist in the fair administration of justice
    cannot be achieved through your release on parole."
    Although, again, it suggested sex offender therapy,
    favorable recommendations from Department of Corrections
    officials, prescriptive programming and continued good
    conduct, the decisive element of the Board’s decision was
    protecting "the safety of the public."
    In 1997 and 1998 the Guidelines protocol resulted in a
    conclusion that Thomas should be released, but he was
    not. In 2000, the protocol recommended against parole. The
    data entered into the chart for past substance abuse
    changed, and thus he was then classified as a habitual
    offender with history of past abuse. The record shows some
    alcohol abuse by Thomas, but no drug use. Moreover, this
    reclassification on the Guidelines worksheet increased his
    overall objective score and placed him in the range of cases
    where the Guidelines recommended against parole. There is
    no evidence that alcohol abuse should, suddenly, as of the
    2000 report, be given such significance: The Guidelines
    recommendation in 2000 is not worthy of consideration
    because it appears to have been deliberately designed to
    achieve a non-parole decision.16
    Most forcefully, the 2000 decision report highlighted the
    Board’s new rationale for denying parole, a rationale which
    implicitly pervaded all of the Board Decisions on Thomas’s
    application: it bluntly stated that Thomas’s release
    interfered with its mission "to protect the safety of the
    public." Although public safety had been a part of the
    Board’s pre-1996 criteria, it had never been an exclusive, or
    even the most important, criterion. However, the Board
    does not attempt to offer any other explanation for its 2000
    decision, while, in 1997 and 1998 it summarily
    _________________________________________________________________
    16. Also, the Guidelines themselves changed, as of 2000, and victim
    injury was given a higher value (two points instead of one), militating
    more strongly against parole. This new valuation was reflected in
    Thomas’s aggregate Guidelines-based score. This further evidences the
    advent of new policies and emphasis on public safety on the part of the
    Board.
    26
    recapitulated: "assaultive offense," potential for "assaultive
    behavior," and "victim injury" as reasons for its parole
    determinations. The reliance on these factors, and its
    failure to credibly consider any other factors, leads us to
    the ineluctable conclusion that the Board relied almost
    exclusively in 1997, 1998 and 2000 on the nature of the
    past offense and the potential danger to public safety.
    The Board protests that the "assaultive potential"
    designation does not "require an automatic parole refusal."
    On the record before us, however, we do not agree. The
    Guidelines did not show him to be a recidivism risk. The
    Board did not consider seriously psychological
    contraindications or any other non-Guidelines factors that
    might have militated against parole. The Board’s denial of
    Thomas’s parole, despite its claims that the decision was
    the result of the discretion vested in it by the pre-1996
    policies, exceeded any reasonable interpretation of the
    applicable policies. It appears that the Board was applying
    the new policy. Now, belatedly, in its briefs, the Board
    seeks to eviscerate the grounds for its decisions with a
    gloss of compliance with the pre-1996 policies. This will not
    do.
    D. Implications of Winklespecht
    Since oral argument in this matter, the Board has called
    to our attention the recent Pennsylvania Supreme Court
    decision, Winklespecht v. Pennsylvania Board of Probation
    and Parole, ___ A.2d ___, 
    2002 WL 31898105
    (Pa. 2002).
    The Board cites this case in support of the proposition that
    S 331.1’s concern with "protect[ing] the safety of the public,"
    added "nothing new to the parole process and[has] always
    been [an] underlying concern[ ]." 
    Id. The Pennsylvania
    Supreme Court held that S 331.1 does not change
    Pennsylvania policy as to the criteria for parole"[n]or did
    the addition of this (new) language create a new offense or
    increase the penalty for an existing offense." Focusing on
    the added language to S 331.1 concerning "protect[ing] the
    safety of the public" and "assist[ing] in the fair
    administration of justice," the court concluded that these
    concepts have always been underlying concerns.
    27
    This decision, made after the Board’s actions on
    Thomas’s parole, came too late to alter the Board’s view of
    the statutory amendment on the outcome of this case. Not
    having the benefit of the Supreme Court decision, the
    evidence before us shows that the Board interpreted
    S 331.1 to mandate foremost the consideration of public
    safety. The Board mistakenly construed the 1996 statutory
    change to signify a substantive change in its parole
    function. See Gall v. Parker, 
    231 F.3d 265
    , 304 (6th Cir.
    2000). As we noted previously, a public statement of the
    Board chairman and Board policy declaration confirm this
    substantive change in Board policy. The Pennsylvania
    Commonwealth Court too understood the 1996 amendment
    to enact a substantive change in Board policy. See 
    Stewart, 714 A.2d at 508
    ; 
    Myers, 712 A.2d at 799
    . The Board’s
    actions and policy pronouncements demonstrate a marked
    added weight on public safety concerns, uninfluenced by
    the subsequent Court interpretation of the statute.
    E. Adverse Impact of Retrospective Policy on Thomas
    As to the second Ex Post Facto criterion, that the change
    must adversely affect the offender, the Board argues that
    Thomas, having been sentenced to life, "had no legitimate
    expectation of ever being paroled." Board Brief at 10-11. It
    notes that, during the 1970s, only 10% of life sentences
    were commuted and paroled. That figure diminished to less
    than half a percent in the 1990s. The Governor’s power to
    grant commutation was in his absolute discretion, and
    thus, according to the Board, Thomas’s eligibility for parole
    was entirely speculative. The Board does not dispute that
    the possibility of parole at sentencing based on some
    explicit criteria gave rise to a liberty interest. Hence, the
    procedures for reviewing parole applications must be
    constitutionally sound.
    Garner held that the Ex Post Facto clause prohibited the
    application of post-conviction laws to prisoners that would
    result in a significant increase in the chances of prolonged
    
    incarceration. 529 U.S. at 251
    . Prisoners are entitled to
    know the range of punishments available at the time of
    sentencing, and during the adjudication of their case, so
    that they can plea bargain and strategize effectively: The Ex
    28
    Post Facto clause "(1) . . . prevents legislatures from
    interfering with the executive and judicial roles of
    prosecution and punishment; and (2) it assures that
    legislative acts give fair warning of what actions will be
    punished and the degree to which they will be punished."
    
    Coady, 251 F.3d at 487-88
    . Therefore, an offender, prior to
    his conviction and sentencing, is entitled to know not only
    his maximum possible punishment, but also his or her
    chances of receiving early release, since this too is a
    relevant factor in the plea bargaining calculus. An adverse
    change in one’s prospects for release disadvantages a
    prisoner just as surely as an upward change in the
    minimum duration of sentence.
    The possibility of commutation existed at the time of
    Thomas’s conviction and sentence. The relevant criterion
    for determining the applicability of ex post facto analysis is
    the effect of new policies on "eligibility for reduced
    imprisonment," rather than any fixed guarantee of release.
    Lynce v. Mathis, 
    519 U.S. 433
    , 445 (1997) (emphasis
    added). Therefore, a sentence that contained the right to
    parole consideration would give rise to a constitutional
    expectation that the parole guidelines extant at the time of
    the crime would be applied. See 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 250
    .
    Eligibility for a commutation of a life sentence entails the
    possibility of parole, albeit a more distant possibility than
    for sentences that carry the possibility of parole ab initio. It
    also gives rise to the expectation that the parole criteria in
    effect at the time of the crime will be applied.
    The Board contends that there was never a "significant"
    possibility, given the unlikelihood of commutation, that
    Thomas would ever be paroled. 
    Garner, 529 U.S. at 256
    .
    Indeed, as the Board contends, in most cases of life
    sentences in Pennsylvania, parole will never be an option as
    commutations are quite rare. However, as unlikely as these
    initial prospects for parole might have been, the application
    of the new parole policies in Thomas’s case rendered them
    even more remote. The new policy "substantially increased
    the period of incarceration;" it reduced the possibilities of
    ever obtaining release.
    The Board’s reliance on California Dept. of Corrections v.
    Morales, 
    514 U.S. 499
    , 508-09 (1995) is misplaced.
    29
    Although the parole policy change in Morales wrought a
    small change in the average duration of a prison sentence,
    the change was held to be too minuscule to rise to a
    constitutional violation. Morales considered the effect of a
    procedural change in parole law, which provided for a
    greater wait-period between first and second hearings. 
    Id. at 507.
    Here the substantive criteria for parole release have
    changed.
    Lynce v. Mathis set forth a key distinction between the
    Morales case and this petition. In Lynce, a law in effect at
    the time of conviction provided that if a prison population
    reached approximately 98% of its capacity, good conduct
    credits needed for early release could be acquired at an
    accelerated pace. The law was changed during the
    prisoner’s sentence, and his accelerated credits, earned
    during a time of over-98% prison capacity, were cancelled
    and parole 
    denied. 519 U.S. at 438-39
    .
    The Lynce prison officials argued that, at the time of
    conviction, it was entirely speculative whether the prison
    would become overcrowded during the petitioner’s
    incarceration, and thus he was excluded from ex post facto
    protection under the holding in Morales. However, Lynce
    distinguished Morales, because there was no evidence in
    Morales that the change affected the petitioner’s own
    sentence detrimentally. 
    Lynce, 519 U.S. at 447
    . In Lynce,
    the population did exceed 98% during petitioner’s
    incarceration, and by his own conduct the prisoner
    achieved enough credits for good behavior, so that he
    became eligible for release under the old rules. The change
    in policy had the effect of increasing the punishment in his
    individual case and thus violated ex post facto. 
    Id. Thus, under
    Lynce’s reasoning, the parole change
    substantially impacted Thomas in violation of the Ex Post
    Facto clause. Moreover, Thomas is entitled to the benefits
    of his good behavior in prison; the opportunity to reduce
    his sentence through commutation, no matter how
    speculative, existed at the time of Thomas’s crime. Thomas
    successfully attained a commutation of his sentence; he
    was entitled to corresponding reduction in sentence. We,
    therefore, hold that to retroactively apply changes in the
    parole laws made after conviction for a life sentence in
    30
    Pennsylvania that adversely affect the release of prisoners
    whose sentences have been commuted, violates the Ex Post
    Facto clause.
    III. Thomas’s Due Process Claim
    Thomas argues that the Board’s handling of his
    application without any real consideration of its merits, in
    violation of the Board’s own procedures, offends due
    process, and that this court should itself order him
    released. Although the Board has not given due
    consideration to the relevant factors, this can be explained
    by its misguided reliance on the post-1996 criteria.
    Moreover, we are exceedingly reluctant to usurp the Board’s
    functions and, except in our review capacity, substitute our
    own judgment for that of the parole Board. Although there
    were flaws and oversights in the Board’s consideration of
    Thomas’s applications, we are not entirely convinced that
    the Board is unable to give Thomas a fair hearing in light
    of the important considerations we have set forth in this
    opinion.
    IV. Conclusion
    Ordinarily, the Board’s decision to parole or deny parole
    to a prisoner is based on the consideration of many factors,
    with no one factor being dispositive. We expect that, on
    remand, the Board will not be defensive, but instead will
    fairly consider Thomas’s application in the light of our
    observations and Ex Post Facto prohibitions. If the
    Guidelines recommend release, the Board should fairly
    consider the weight of this recommendation. A decision
    contrary to a Guidelines recommendation must be
    buttressed by unique factors which outweigh the
    Guidelines endorsement. Moreover, release on parole is a
    Board policy presumption, and parole should be granted
    unless countervailing negative factors affirmatively
    outweigh reasons supporting release.
    In conclusion, the Order of the District Court is hereby
    affirmed, with directions to remand the matter to the Board
    for further proceedings consistent with this opinion,
    including a new hearing for Thomas and the Board’s
    31
    written decision thereon within 45 days after the mandate
    of this court.
    A True Copy:
    Teste:
    Clerk of the United States Court of Appeals
    for the Third Circuit
    32