United States v. Jose Valdovinos , 760 F.3d 322 ( 2014 )


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  •                              PUBLISHED
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE FOURTH CIRCUIT
    No. 13-4768
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff - Appellee,
    v.
    JOSE RAMON SOLIS VALDOVINOS, a/k/a Angel Victorio Mendoza,
    a/k/a Jose Valdavinos,
    Defendant - Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the Western
    District of North Carolina, at Charlotte.   Frank D. Whitney,
    Chief District Judge. (3:13-cr-00183-FDW-1)
    Argued:   May 15, 2014                    Decided:   July 25, 2014
    Before MOTZ and DIAZ, Circuit Judges, and DAVIS, Senior Circuit
    Judge.
    Affirmed by published opinion.    Judge Motz wrote the majority
    opinion, in which Judge Diaz joined. Senior Judge Davis wrote a
    dissenting opinion.
    ARGUED: Ann Loraine Hester, FEDERAL DEFENDERS OF WESTERN NORTH
    CAROLINA, INC., Charlotte, North Carolina, for Appellant.    Amy
    Elizabeth Ray, OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES ATTORNEY, Asheville,
    North Carolina, for Appellee. ON BRIEF: Henderson Hill,
    Executive Director, FEDERAL DEFENDERS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA,
    INC., Charlotte, North Carolina, for Appellant. Anne M.
    Tompkins, United States Attorney, OFFICE OF THE UNITED STATES
    ATTORNEY, Charlotte, North Carolina, for Appellee.
    DIANA GRIBBON MOTZ, Circuit Judge:
    Jose     Valdovinos,          a    citizen     of       Mexico,       pled    guilty     to
    unlawfully entering the United States after being deported, in
    violation of 8 U.S.C. § 1326(a).                     The district court increased
    Valdovinos’s sentence on the ground that he illegally reentered
    the country after a prior North Carolina conviction for felony
    drug trafficking, i.e., a drug offense punishable by more than
    one year in prison.            See U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2(b)(1)(B).                       Valdovinos
    challenges     his    sentence          enhancement,        arguing         that    this    prior
    conviction was not punishable by more than a year in prison
    because   he    was     sentenced            pursuant    to    a     plea    agreement       that
    capped his prison term at 12 months.                      Accordingly, he contends,
    the   prior     North       Carolina         conviction        was    not     a    felony     for
    Guidelines purposes.           For the reasons that follow, we affirm.
    I.
    Valdovinos entered the United States in November 2008 and
    quickly   ran       afoul     of    the       law.      Authorities          in     Mecklenburg
    County, North Carolina arrested him the following month on drug
    trafficking charges.               Valdovinos pled guilty in state court to
    four counts of selling heroin, each a Class G felony offense
    under North Carolina law.                See N.C. Gen. Stat. § 90-95(a) & (b).
    Because   Valdovinos          had       no    criminal    record,       his        prior-record
    level   was    I.       The    state         court   made      no    findings        of    either
    2
    aggravation or mitigation.               Based on these facts, the parties
    agree    that   Valdovinos’s       prior          conviction     carried    a    maximum
    statutory    sentence    of   16       months      in   prison   pursuant       to    North
    Carolina’s Structured Sentencing Act (“the Act”).                     See N.C. Gen.
    Stat.    § 15A-1340.17(c)          &     (d)        (codifying      North       Carolina
    sentencing scheme) (version effective until November 2009). 1
    But Valdovinos was sentenced pursuant to a plea agreement
    that,    upon   acceptance    by        the       court,    established     a    binding
    sentencing range of 10 to 12 months’ imprisonment.                         Under state
    law, once the trial judge accepted the plea, the judge had to
    sentence    Valdovinos   within         the       agreement’s    recommended         range.
    See N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1023(b) (codifying role of sentencing
    judge in plea arrangements relating to sentence).                           Of course,
    the judge remained free to reject the recommended range along
    with Valdovinos’s guilty plea.                    See 
    id. But in
    this case the
    judge elected to accept the agreement and accordingly sentenced
    Valdovinos to 10 to 12 months in prison.                    In January 2010, after
    serving his sentence, Valdovinos was removed to Mexico.
    1
    In December 2011, the North Carolina legislature amended
    the Act to provide for higher maximum terms of imprisonment.
    See N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1340.17(d). The maximum sentence for
    an offender in Valdovinos’s position (Class G felony, prior
    record level of I, and no findings of mitigation or aggravation)
    is now 25 months’ imprisonment. Valdovinos was convicted before
    the amendment, however, so the previous maximum penalty of 16
    months applies here.
    3
    In May 2013, Valdovinos reentered the United States without
    permission and returned to North Carolina.                  He was arrested a
    few weeks later for resisting a public officer, and charged with
    illegal reentry by a removed alien in violation of 8 U.S.C.
    § 1326(a).     He pled guilty to the charge.
    In   preparation     for     Valdovinos’s      sentencing,      a       probation
    officer prepared a presentence report calculating Valdovinos’s
    recommended term of imprisonment for this reentry conviction.
    The probation officer recommended a base offense level of 8 and
    a   12-point    enhancement       on   the    ground   that    Valdovinos         had
    previously      been   convicted       of     a   “felony    drug    trafficking
    offense,” i.e., his 2009 North Carolina conviction for selling
    heroin.        See   U.S.S.G.     § 2L1.2(b)(1)(B).          After       a    3-point
    reduction for acceptance of responsibility, Valdovinos’s total
    recommended     offense   level    was      17.   Combined    with       a   criminal
    history category of II, this offense level produced a Guidelines
    range of 27 to 33 months’ imprisonment.
    Valdovinos objected to the felony drug-offense enhancement.
    He noted that under the Guidelines, a “felony” is “any federal,
    state, or local offense punishable by imprisonment for a term
    exceeding one year.”        U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2 cmt. n.2.                   Valdovinos
    argued that because his guilty plea to the prior North Carolina
    conviction was entered as part of an agreement that capped his
    sentence at 12 months once the court accepted his plea, that
    4
    conviction was not punishable by more than one year in prison.
    Consequently, he maintained, his prior conviction for selling
    heroin did not constitute a felony under the Guidelines and so
    could not serve as a predicate offense to enhance his federal
    sentence for illegal reentry.
    The district court rejected the argument.                                   It recognized
    that     the    plea       agreement          reduced          Valdovinos’s          prior    North
    Carolina sentence.              The court found, however, that this did not
    alter the fact that the offense was punishable by imprisonment
    exceeding one year because the maximum statutory penalty of 16
    months    remained         unchanged.           The         court       therefore    applied       the
    enhancement and sentenced Valdovinos to 27 months in prison.
    This appeal followed.
    II.
    Valdovinos         contends       that          the     district       court       erred     in
    enhancing      his        sentence       on     the          basis      of   his     prior       state
    conviction.          As    he     argued      in       the    district       court,      Valdovinos
    again claims that, due to his plea agreement, his North Carolina
    conviction was not punishable by more than a year in prison and
    therefore       does        not       qualify          as      a     felony       under      Section
    2L1.2(b)(1)(B)         of       the    Guidelines.                 We    review     de    novo    the
    question       whether       a        prior    state           conviction          constitutes       a
    predicate felony conviction for purposes of a federal sentence
    5
    enhancement.        United States v. Jones, 
    667 F.3d 477
    , 482 (4th
    Cir. 2012).
    A.
    Our approach to determining whether a prior North Carolina
    conviction was punishable by a prison term exceeding one year
    (and    thus   constitutes       a     federal     sentencing        predicate)      has
    changed in recent years.               We once answered that question by
    considering     “the    maximum      aggravated       sentence       that    could   be
    imposed for that crime upon a defendant with the worst possible
    criminal history.”           United States v. Harp, 
    406 F.3d 242
    , 246
    (4th Cir. 2005).            As a result, many defendants who, based on
    their   own    criminal      histories,       could    not    possibly      have   been
    sentenced to prison for more than a year were deemed to have
    been    convicted      of    predicate     felonies      and    so    sentenced      to
    enhanced    federal     prison    terms.         We   faithfully      followed     that
    precedent in numerous cases, including United States v. Simmons,
    340 F. App’x 141 (4th Cir. 2009).
    In   2010,   however,     the     Supreme      Court    decided      Carachuri-
    Rosendo v. Holder, 
    560 U.S. 563
    (2010).                        The Court held in
    Carachuri that, for purposes of the Immigration and Nationality
    Act, a prior conviction constitutes an “aggravated felony” –-
    i.e., a crime for which the maximum term of imprisonment exceeds
    one year –- only if the defendant was “actually convicted of a
    crime that is itself punishable as a felony under federal law.”
    6
    
    Id. at 582.
             The Court explained that whether the defendant’s
    conduct      underlying     his    prior    conviction          hypothetically        could
    have received felony treatment is irrelevant.                          See 
    id. at 576-
    81.    The critical question is simply whether he was convicted of
    an offense punishable by more than one year in prison.
    The Supreme Court then vacated our judgment in Simmons and
    remanded the case to us for “further consideration in light of
    Carachuri-Rosendo.”         See 
    130 S. Ct. 3455
    (2010).                  On remand, we
    recognized     that,     although     Carachuri         arose    in    the    immigration
    context, its rationale undercut our use of “an imagined worst-
    case    offender”      to   calculate      a     defendant’s          maximum    term    of
    imprisonment for a prior conviction.                    United States v. Simmons,
    
    649 F.3d 237
    , 249 (4th Cir. 2011) (en banc).                           Accordingly, we
    held    that   a     defendant’s    prior       North    Carolina       conviction      was
    punishable      by    imprisonment     exceeding          one    year     (and    thus    a
    federal sentencing predicate) only if the particular defendant’s
    crime of conviction was punishable under North Carolina law by a
    prison term exceeding one year.              
    Id. Valdovinos contends
    that Carachuri and Simmons support his
    argument that his prior conviction for selling heroin does not
    constitute a felony under the Guidelines.                         In particular, he
    seizes on the instruction in those cases that a court must “look
    to     the   conviction      itself     as       [its]     starting          place”   when
    considering whether a prior conviction qualifies as a federal
    7
    sentencing      predicate.          
    Carachuri, 560 U.S. at 576
    ;      accord
    
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 242
    .              Valdovinos argues that because the
    state court could not have imposed a sentence greater than 12
    months   once     it    accepted     his    guilty         plea    –-        that    is,       once
    Valdovinos was convicted of his drug offense –- this conviction
    was   not     punishable       by     imprisonment              exceeding           one    year.
    Appellant’s Br. at 12-13.             Accordingly, Valdovinos claims that
    his   prior    North     Carolina     conviction           is     not    a     felony      under
    Carachuri and Simmons because “[t]here was no point when [his]
    conviction exposed him to a sentence greater than one year’s
    imprisonment.”         Reply Br. at 8.
    Valdovinos’s argument is clever, but unpersuasive.                                   North
    Carolina’s      unique     sentencing      regime,          not    a     plea       agreement,
    determines     whether     a   defendant’s          conviction          is    punishable         by
    imprisonment exceeding one year and so qualifies as a federal
    sentencing predicate.          
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 240
    .
    B.
    North Carolina’s Structured Sentencing Act “creates felony
    sentences     strictly     contingent      on       two    factors:          the    designated
    ‘class of offense’ and the offender’s ‘prior record level.’”
    
    Id. (quoting N.C.
    Gen. Stat. § 15A-1340.13(b)).                               The sentencing
    judge calculates the offender’s prior record level by adding
    together    the   points,      assigned        by    the    Act,        for    each       of   the
    offender’s prior convictions.              N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1340.14(a).
    8
    The judge then matches the offense class and prior record level
    using a statutory table, which provides three sentencing ranges
    –- a mitigated range, a presumptive range, and an aggravated
    range.        
    Id. § 15A–1340.17(c).
              The    judge    must    sentence    the
    defendant within the presumptive range unless the judge makes
    written       findings      of    aggravating    or    mitigating       factors.     
    Id. §§ 15A-1340.13(e)
    & 15A-1340.16(c).                    And the judge may sentence
    a   defendant       within       the   aggravated      range    only    if   the   state
    provides the defendant notice of its intent to prove aggravating
    factors, and a jury finds such factors beyond a reasonable doubt
    or the defendant pleads to their existence.                       
    Id. § 15A-1340.16
    (a6).     Once the judge selects the applicable range, the judge
    must choose the defendant’s minimum sentence from within that
    range;    a    separate         statutory   chart     provides   the     corresponding
    maximum term.            
    Id. § 15A-1340.17(d).
    Critically,          North    Carolina’s      sentencing    scheme     is    not   a
    discretionary, guidelines system.                Rather, “it mandates specific
    sentences,”         so    “no    circumstances      exist   under      the   Structured
    Sentencing Act in which a North Carolina judge may impose a
    sentence that exceeds the top of the range set forth in the
    Act.”     
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    (quotation marks and citation
    omitted).       Determining the maximum punishment for an offender’s
    prior conviction, then, simply “requires examination of three
    pieces of evidence:                the offense class, the offender’s prior
    9
    record level, and the applicability of the aggravated sentencing
    range.”     
    Id. at 247,
    n.9.
    In Simmons, based on these three pieces of evidence, the
    Structured Sentencing Act authorized a maximum sentence of only
    8   months’      community       punishment                 (no    imprisonment)             for     the
    defendant’s prior conviction.                         
    Id. at 241.
               Because Simmons’s
    prior offense was not punishable under North Carolina law by
    more than one year in prison, it did not qualify as a felony
    predicate for a federal sentence enhancement.                               
    Id. at 248.
    In      Valdovinos’s        case,              by     contrast,          the       Structured
    Sentencing       Act    authorized          a     maximum         sentence        of    16     months’
    imprisonment        for    his    prior          conviction.               That     the      sentence
    ultimately      imposed     pursuant             to    his       plea    deal     was     10    to    12
    months’     imprisonment         is     irrelevant.                  See    United        States      v.
    Edmonds, 
    679 F.3d 169
    , 176 (4th Cir. 2012) (reaffirming that
    “the    qualification       of     a    prior              conviction       [as     a     sentencing
    predicate]       does     not    depend           on       the    sentence        [a    defendant]
    actually       received”     but       on       the        maximum       sentence       permitted),
    vacated on other grounds, 
    133 S. Ct. 376
    , aff’d on remand, 
    700 F.3d 146
       (4th      Cir.     2012).                  Valdovinos’s         North        Carolina
    conviction      was     punishable          by    imprisonment             exceeding         one   year
    based on his prior record level, offense class, and sentencing
    range.         It      therefore       qualifies             as      a     federal      sentencing
    predicate.
    10
    Valdovinos’s      contrary       argument   rests     on   a    misreading   of
    Carachuri and Simmons.            Those cases direct that an offender’s
    conviction must serve as our “starting place” not because, as
    Valdovinos suggests, the moment of conviction (i.e., the moment
    the defendant enters his guilty plea) is a magical one.                     Rather,
    it is because the critical question for purposes of a federal
    sentence enhancement is whether the particular defendant’s prior
    offense     of    conviction     was   itself     punishable     by    imprisonment
    exceeding one year.        
    Carachuri, 560 U.S. at 576
    & 582; 
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 243
    ; see also U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2 cmt. n.2 (defining
    “felony” as “any federal, state, or local offense punishable by
    imprisonment for a term exceeding one year”) (emphasis added).
    Undoubtedly, Valdovinos’s prior offense of conviction –- sale of
    heroin -- was itself punishable by imprisonment for more than
    one year.
    Simmons, and Carachuri before it, teach that we may not
    measure a defendant’s maximum punishment based on a hypothetical
    charge, a hypothetical criminal history, or other “facts outside
    the record of conviction.”              
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    (quoting
    
    Carachuri, 560 U.S. at 582
    ).              But we do not do so in holding
    that North Carolina’s “carefully crafted sentencing scheme,” 
    id. at 249,
      not    a   negotiated      plea    agreement,    determines     whether
    Valdovinos’s prior conviction qualifies as a federal sentencing
    predicate.        In   looking    to    the    Structured    Sentencing     Act    to
    11
    establish     Valdovinos’s      maximum       sentence,       we    consider       only
    Valdovinos’s own offense class and criminal history, and thus
    attribute    to    him   only   the    crime   of     which    he   was   “actually
    convicted.”        
    Carachuri, 560 U.S. at 582
      (emphasis     omitted).
    This is the approach mandated by Carachuri and Simmons.
    III.
    Nonetheless, Valdovinos contends that a plea agreement of
    the sort he negotiated –- that binds the judge to a sentence
    once the judge accepts the plea -- displaces North Carolina’s
    Structured Sentencing Act and establishes the maximum punishment
    for every defendant sentenced pursuant to such a deal.                              The
    argument fails.          Precedent offers no support for the outcome
    Valdovinos seeks.         In fact, that outcome is fundamentally at
    odds with important principles animating our decision in Simmons
    and North Carolina’s sentencing scheme.
    A.
    A negotiated plea agreement differs in critical respects
    from a legislative mandate like the Structured Sentencing Act.
    While   a   plea    agreement    reflects      only    the    interests       of   the
    prosecutor    and   individual    defendant,        the     Act    reflects    “North
    Carolina's judgment as to the seriousness of a North Carolina
    crime.”     
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 249
    .               And while, under a plea
    agreement, a defendant’s sentence hinges on merely the ability
    12
    of    the    parties     to     reach    a   deal       and     the   willingness     of    the
    sentencing judge to accept that deal, the Structured Sentencing
    Act     ensures      that       objective,         uniformly          applicable      factors
    determine each offender’s maximum punishment.
    Thus, to determine an offender’s maximum sentence, Simmons
    instructs that in every case we look to the same three pieces of
    evidence:         “the        offense    class,        the    offender’s      prior     record
    level,      and    the    applicability            of     the     aggravated       sentencing
    range.”       
    Id. at 247
    n.9.            A plea agreement applies to just one
    case.       Simmons’s instruction ensures that offenders with similar
    criminal backgrounds who commit similar crimes will be sentenced
    to    similar      prison       terms.        Of        course,       an   individual      plea
    agreement provides no similar assurance.
    Moreover,         in     contrast      to        North     Carolina’s        mandatory
    sentencing        scheme,      under     which     a     judge    may      never   “impose    a
    sentence that exceeds the top of the range set forth in the
    Act,” 
    id. at 244
    (quotation marks and citation omitted), a plea
    agreement’s recommended sentence is not the final word under
    North Carolina law.                 This is so because the sentencing judge
    remains free to reject the agreement.
    Neither a defendant nor a prosecutor may “bind the State to
    the dispensation of a particular sentence . . . until the trial
    judge has approved of the proposed sentence.”                              State v. Marlow,
    
    432 S.E.2d 275
    ,       279    (N.C.    1993)          (citation      and    alteration
    13
    omitted);    see    also       N.C.    Gen.    Stat.     § 15A-1023(b).            And    “the
    prosecutor may rescind his offer of a proposed plea arrangement
    at any time before it is consummated by actual entry of the
    guilty    plea    and    the    acceptance         and   approval     of    the    proposed
    sentence     by    the    trial       judge.”        
    Marlow, 432 S.E.2d at 279
    (emphasis omitted).             “A decision by the judge disapproving a
    plea arrangement,” moreover, “is not subject to appeal.”                                  N.C.
    Gen. Stat. § 15A-1023(b).                Accordingly, the state judge could
    have     rejected       Valdovinos’s          plea     agreement      and       required    a
    sentence of up to 16 months in prison, the statutory maximum
    under the Act.
    Valdovinos protests that this argument “ignores the most
    important     procedural          protection         included      in       [the    statute
    governing his plea agreement]: the defendant’s right to withdraw
    from   the   plea       agreement      and     plead     not   guilty      if    the     judge
    rejects the agreed sentence.”                  Reply Br. at 5-6.             Certainly, a
    defendant has this right.                The relevant North Carolina statute
    provides:
    Before accepting a plea pursuant to a plea arrangement
    in which the prosecutor has agreed to recommend a
    particular sentence, the judge must advise the parties
    whether he approves the arrangement and will dispose
    of the case accordingly.    If the judge rejects the
    arrangement, he must so inform the parties, refuse to
    accept the defendant’s plea of guilty or no contest,
    and advise the defendant personally that neither the
    State nor the defendant is bound by the rejected
    arrangement. The judge must advise the parties of the
    14
    reasons he rejected the arrangement and afford them an
    opportunity to modify the arrangement accordingly.
    N.C.   Gen.      Stat.    §    15A-1023(b)     (emphasis       added).       We   cannot,
    therefore, be sure what would have happened if the state judge
    had rejected Valdovinos’s plea.                     Perhaps Valdovinos would have
    withdrawn his plea, and perhaps a jury would have acquitted him
    of selling heroin in North Carolina.                    But the fact remains that
    Valdovinos,       like     countless        other    defendants,     chose     to     plead
    guilty under a plea agreement that allowed him to avoid trial
    and its associated risk of a higher sentence than the agreement
    offered.      And he pleaded guilty to an offense that carried a
    maximum sentence of 16 months in prison under North Carolina
    law.       His    conviction         thus    constitutes       a   proper    sentencing
    predicate under the Guidelines.
    B.
    Valdovinos’s           remaining      arguments    to       the   contrary       are
    similarly unconvincing.
    First, he contends that just as North Carolina prosecutors
    declined to pursue Simmons as an aggravated offender, 
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 245
    , so too they “declined to pursue [him] as a
    felon” by agreeing to a sentence capped at 12 months in prison.
    Appellant’s       Br.     at    17   (quotation       marks    omitted).          Not   so.
    Valdovinos       was     charged     with,    and    pleaded    guilty   to,      a   North
    Carolina Class G felony offense.                    See N.C. Gen. Stat. § 14-1(4)
    15
    (defining       felony     as,       inter       alia,    a     crime    “denominated                as    a
    felony     by    statute”).               That     prosecutors          agreed       to     a    lower
    sentence       does     not    eliminate           the   fact     that       they     did       indeed
    “pursue [him] as a felon.”
    In a similar vein, Valdovinos claims that “the prosecutor
    must have found the existence of mitigating circumstances in
    order     to     agree        to     a       sentence     of     less        than     one       year.”
    Appellant’s       Br.    at        17.       But   it    is    just     as    likely       that       the
    prosecutor agreed to the lower sentence to avoid the time and
    expense    of     trial. 2          And       contrary     to    Valdovinos’s             claim,          it
    matters    not     that       his        maximum    sentence       under       the        Structured
    Sentencing       Act     would       similarly          have    been     12    months           if    the
    parties     had       “obtained          a    mitigated-range           sentence”          based          on
    judicial        findings       of        mitigation       rather        than        through          plea
    negotiations.           
    Id. Because a
    North Carolina sentencing judge
    “remain[s] free at all times to sentence [a defendant] to a
    presumptive       prison       term”         despite     the    existence        of       mitigating
    factors,        Valdovinos’s              conviction          would      still        have           been
    punishable by imprisonment exceeding one year and so would have
    qualified as a sentencing predicate.                           United States v. Kerr, 
    737 F.3d 33
    , 38-39 (4th Cir. 2013).
    2
    Of course, the prosecutor knew that Valdovinos faced
    immediate deportation upon his release from prison, a fact that
    might also have played a role in sentencing negotiations.
    16
    Finally, contrary to his suggestion, Valdovinos had ample
    notice of the consequences of his plea.      Measuring his maximum
    sentence by reference to the Structured Sentencing Act therefore
    does not rob him of the benefits of that plea.     This case does
    not, for example, involve a defendant who negotiated a plea to a
    lesser charge, only to have a later sentencing court impose an
    enhancement on the basis of the defendant’s underlying conduct
    or initial indictment on a greater charge.     That approach might
    unfairly deprive defendants of the benefits of their negotiated
    pleas, because it is “unfair to impose a sentence enhancement as
    if the defendant had pleaded guilty to [a sentencing predicate]”
    when in fact he did not.    Descamps v. United States, 
    133 S. Ct. 2276
    , 2289 (2013) (quotation mark and citation omitted).
    Here, however, Valdovinos did plead guilty to a sentencing
    predicate, i.e., a felony punishable by more than one year.    Had
    he wished to avoid a conviction punishable under North Carolina
    law by imprisonment exceeding one year, he should have sought a
    plea to a lesser crime. 3    Perhaps he did so, and perhaps the
    prosecutor refused.   Whatever the case, Valdovinos ultimately
    3
    North Carolina classifies felonies in descending order of
    seriousness from Class A (most serious) through Class I (least
    serious). See N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1340.17(c). At the time of
    Valdovinos’s conviction, a North Carolina Class H felony offense
    carried a maximum (presumptive) sentence of only eight months in
    prison for an offender with his criminal history. See N.C. Gen.
    Stat. § 15A-1340.17 (version effective until November 30, 2009).
    17
    elected to plead guilty to an offense punishable under state law
    by a maximum term of 16 months in prison.                   He knew this, or
    should have known it, at the time of his conviction and so
    cannot now claim that the district court unfairly attributed to
    him this predicate offense.
    IV.
    For the foregoing reasons, we hold that North Carolina’s
    legislatively   mandated     sentencing        scheme,    not    a   recommended
    sentence hashed out in plea negotiations, determines whether an
    offender’s   prior   North      Carolina     conviction    was   punishable     by
    more than a year in prison.              Because Valdovinos’s offense of
    conviction was indeed punishable by imprisonment exceeding one
    year,   it   qualifies     as     a    predicate    felony       under    Section
    2L1.2(b)(1)(B) of the Guidelines.             We appreciate the fervor and
    policy arguments of our friend in dissent.               Indeed, we can agree
    with many of the latter.              What we cannot agree with is that
    “application of relevant precedent” does not require the result
    here.   Carachuri and Simmons do just that.               The judgment of the
    district court is
    AFFIRMED.
    18
    DAVIS, Senior Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    The majority holds that a federal sentencing enhancement
    should be applied under the illegal reentry guideline, U.S.S.G.
    § 2L1.2(b)(1)(B), whenever an offender’s rap sheet contains a
    prior    North     Carolina   conviction      that,      given   his   offense         and
    criminal history levels, could have resulted in a sentence of
    incarceration exceeding one year. I would hold instead that such
    an offense does not qualify as a predicate felony if, due to a
    statutorily        authorized,      judicially-accepted,           binding         plea
    agreement, the state sentencing judge is legally compelled to
    impose a sentence of no more than one year. Put differently, and
    consonant with our relevant circuit precedent, I would treat
    such an offender as if the state court judge had found him
    statutorily ineligible for a sentence of more than one year,
    which of course was true once the judge accepted his guilty plea
    and before imposing sentence. See infra pp. 32-36 (explaining
    the operation of N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1023(b)).
    Our disagreement as to the outcome in this case stems, I
    think,     less    over    the    content     and   application        of    relevant
    precedent and more from a fundamental disagreement regarding our
    role as arbiters of a flailing federal sentencing regime. Where,
    as    here,   we    have   been    presented      with    a   choice    in       how    to
    interpret the interstices of federal sentencing law, and where
    one     choice     would   exacerbate       the   harmful     effects       of    over-
    19
    incarceration         that        every     cadre       of   social       and        political
    scientists (as well as an ever-growing cohort of elected and
    appointed officials, state and federal, as well as respected
    members of the federal judiciary) has recognized as unjust and
    inhumane, as well as expensive and ineffectual, this insight can
    and   should      inform     our    analysis.       I   deeply    regret        the    panel’s
    failure to take advantage of the opportunity to do so here.
    I.
    First, some necessary and useful background.
    A.
    Over the latter half of the last century, enthusiasm for
    incarceration pervaded crime reduction policy and the related
    public discourse. The policy choices that resulted have created
    an    unparalleled      rate       of   incarceration        –   nearly        2.23    million
    people,      or   1   out    of    every    100     adults,      currently       sit    in   an
    American prison or jail - a marked departure from the historical
    experience of the United States as well as the modern experience
    of    peer    democracies.          Dept.    of     Justice,          Bureau    of     Justice
    Statistics, L. Glaze & E. Herberman, Correctional Populations in
    the          United          States,           2012,             at        3           (2013),
    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/cpus12.pdf. The United States
    now holds the highest prison population rate in the world, over
    5 to 10 times more than western European democracies. Int’l Ctr.
    for Prison Studies, R. Walmsley, World Prison Population List 1-
    20
    3 (10th ed. 2013). Though it is home to only 5 percent of the
    world’s population, our nation accounts for nearly 25 percent of
    its   prisoners.        Congressional              Research         Service,      S.    Kirchhoff,
    Economic            Impacts        of             Prison            Growth          9        (2010),
    http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R41177.pdf.
    By all accounts, these “tough on crime” policies have been
    an    abject    failure.       A    rapidly             accumulating         group      of   multi-
    disciplinary research studies have come to the conclusion that
    the   rate     of    incarceration           in       the    United    States       needs      to    be
    significantly reduced, and both the executive and legislative
    branches      seem     to   agree.          As    a     recent      study    prepared        by     the
    research arm of the National Academy of Sciences put it, the
    United States has “gone past the point where the numbers of
    people   in     prison      can    be       justified          by    social       benefits,”        and
    arrived at a point where mass incarceration itself is a major
    “source of injustice.” National Research Council, J. Travis, et
    al., The Growth of Incarceration in the United States: Exploring
    Causes   and        Consequences        9    (2014)          (“National      Research        Council
    Report”).
    Justice        Kennedy      summarized            it    best    ten     years     ago:      “Our
    resources       are     misspent,            our        punishments         too     severe,         our
    sentences too long.” Greenhouse, High Court Justice Supports Bar
    Plan to Ease Sentencing, N.Y. Times, June 24, 2004, p. A14.
    Consider the present state of our federal Bureau of Prisons:
    21
    more than half of its 200,000 inmates are incarcerated for drug-
    related offenses, and only 6 percent for violent crimes. Dept.
    of   Justice,    Bureau      of    Justice       Statistics,      E.A.    Carson         &   D.
    Golinelli, Prisoners in 2012: Trends in Admissions and Releases,
    1991-2012,                         at                      43                          (2013),
    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p12tar9112.pdf.                           Almost         half
    of the inmates suffer from substance abuse disorders. Dept. of
    Justice,     Bureau     of        Justice    Statistics,          C.     Mumola         &    J.
    Karberg, Drug Use and Dependence, State and Federal Prisoners,
    2004,                        at                        1                               (2006),
    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/dudsfp04.pdf.                        And       of    those
    released, 40 percent are rearrested or have their supervision
    revoked within five years, frequently for minor violations of
    the terms of their release. W. Rhodes, et al., Recidivism of
    Offenders       on    Federal           Community     Supervision             8        (2012),
    https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/bjs/grants/241018.pdf.
    Each   inmate     costs       our   system,     and       thus   the        taxpayers,
    $29,291 annually. Congressional Research Service, N. James, The
    Federal    Prison     Population        Buildup:     Overview,         Policy      Changes,
    Issues,               and                 Options                 15                   (2014),
    http://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R42937.pdf.                 A       Brookings         Institute
    project shows that direct corrections expenses total $80 billion
    a year; total expenditure soars to more than $260 billion once
    police, judicial, and legal services are included. The Hamilton
    22
    Project, M. Kearney, et al., Ten Economic Facts about Crime and
    Incarceration       in       the       United       States      13     (2014),
    http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2014/05/0
    1%20crime%20facts/v8_thp_10crimefacts                (“Hamilton        Project
    Report”).
    Perhaps these numbers would be easier to accept if we had
    conclusive data that severe punishment resulted in lower crime
    rates. But there are no such data. “Through the 1990s and 2000s,
    crime rates fell significantly, but the evidence indicates it is
    unlikely that the rise in incarceration rates played a powerful
    role in this trend.” National Research Council Report, at 340.
    The data are, at best, mixed, and there is compelling evidence
    that    severe   prison    sentences     actually   make     reoffending   more
    likely when offenders reenter society. 
    Id. at 135-40,
    150-52;
    see also, e.g., Daniel S. Nagin, Deterrence in the Twenty—First
    Century 201, 42 Crime and Justice 199, 201 (M. Tonry, ed. 2013)
    (“[T]here is little [empirical] evidence that increases in the
    length of already long prison sentences yield general deterrent
    effects that are sufficiently large to justify their social and
    economic costs.”); Anne Morrison Piehl & Bert Useem, Prisons, in
    Crime   and   Public     Policy,   542    (Joan   Petersilia    and   James   Q.
    Wilson, eds., 2nd ed. 2011) (same).
    23
    B.
    The     heady       weight   of    this     experiment’s       failure    falls
    disproportionately on our poor, our communities of color, and
    excruciatingly so on young black men:
    Those who are incarcerated in U.S. prisons come
    largely from the most disadvantaged segments of the
    population. They comprise mainly [of] minority men
    under age 40, poorly educated, and often carrying
    additional deficits of drug and alcohol addiction,
    mental and physical illness, and a lack of work
    preparation or experience. . . . The meaning and
    consequences of this new reality cannot be separated
    from issues of social inequality and the quality of
    citizenship  of   the  nation’s  racial  and  ethnic
    minorities.
    National     Research       Council    Report,    at    2;    see   also   Hamilton
    Project Report, at 17 (“There is nearly a 70 percent chance that
    an African-American man without a high school diploma will be
    imprisoned     by        his   mid-thirties.”).        Such    disparities        make
    official responses to crime and criminality a racially fraught
    phenomenon.    In    2011,     blacks    were    incarcerated       at   nearly    six
    times, and Hispanics at three times, the rate for non-Hispanic
    whites; the combination of those two groups accounted for no
    less than 60 percent of the total prison population. Dept. of
    Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics, E.A. Carson & W. Sabol,
    Prisoners           in         2011,       at          7-8;         26        (2012),
    www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/p11.pdf.
    I should note that no respected researcher has suggested
    that the disparities in imprisonment rates can be attributed to
    24
    disparities in criminality. Studies have shown that, controlling
    for    legally     relevant      differences,       black    defendants    are   more
    likely to be confined before trial, more likely to be sentenced
    to    prison     when   non-prison    sentences       are    available,    and   more
    likely      to     receive       longer    sentences          than     their     white
    counterparts. See Michael Tonry, Punishing Race: A Continuing
    American Dilemma 70-76 (2011); Cassia Spohn, Racial Disparities
    In Prosecution, Sentencing, And Punishment 166-93, in The Oxford
    Handbook of Ethnicity, Crime, and Immigration                    (S. Bucerius, et
    al., ed. 2013). Findings in a recent study of the New York
    County District Attorney’s Office by the highly-regarded Vera
    Institute of Justice exemplify these nationwide realities: it
    concluded       that    racial   disparities    manifested       in    nearly    every
    identifiable       point    of   “significant       prosecutorial       discretion.”
    See Vera Institute of Justice, B. Kutateladze & N. Andiloro,
    Prosecution       and     Racial    Justice     in     New     York    County    217,
    http://www.vera.org/sites/default/files/resources/downloads/race
    -and-prosecution-manhattan-technical.pdf                      (“Vera       Institute
    Study”).
    As   a    result,     according    to    a    United    States     Sentencing
    Commission (USSC) report, black male offenders receive sentences
    20 percent longer than those imposed on white males convicted of
    similar crimes. USSC, Report on the Continuing Impact of United
    States v. Booker on Federal Sentencing 108 (2012). The truth is
    25
    that “once they’re in [the] system, people of color often face
    harsher punishments than their peers”; as Attorney General Eric
    G. Holder recently stated, “[t]his isn’t just unacceptable – it
    is   shameful[,]     unworthy      of   our    great      country,      and    our    great
    legal tradition.” Eric G. Holder, Attorney General, Remarks at
    Annual     Meeting   of   the      American        Bar    Association’s         House      of
    Delegates       (Aug.         12,        2013),           in         Justice          News,
    http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/ag/speeches/2013/ag-speech-
    130812.html    (“Holder       Speech    at     ABA”)      (saved      as     ECF    opinion
    attachment).
    C.
    The dangers of over-incarceration also present themselves
    in   the   immigration    context.       Approximately          21,000       inmates       are
    currently serving sentences for immigration-related offenses in
    the federal Bureau of Prisons. Federal Bureau of Prisons, Inmate
    Statistics:                                                                     Offenses,
    http://www.bop.gov/about/statistics/statistics_inmate_offenses.j
    sp (last updated June 28, 2014).                   This        sum         reflects         a
    staggering    900    percent       increase     in    admission       since        1994;    in
    fact, immigration prosecutions now make up the single largest
    category of federal cases annually. Dept. of Justice, Bureau of
    Justice     Statistics,       M.    Motivans,         Federal        Criminal       Justice
    Trends,               2003,                   at                48                  (2006),
    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/fcjt03.pdf;                       Exec.    Office       for
    26
    U.S.    Attorneys,         Dep’t    of   Justice,        United      States    Attorneys’
    Annual Statistical Report: Fiscal Year 2012, at 10 (2012).
    Immigration cases are processed in a manner bordering on
    mechanical. Prosecutorial discretion is almost unheard of: less
    than 1 percent of immigration matters referred to U.S. Attorneys
    were declined for further prosecution. Dept. of Justice, Bureau
    of Justice Statistics, M. Motivans, Immigration Offenders in the
    Federal           Justice          System,         2010,        at       18          (2013),
    http://www.bjs.gov/content/pub/pdf/iofjs10.pdf.                       Over     95    percent
    of immigration defendants plead guilty; in the Fourth Circuit,
    this    figure        is   98.6     percent.      
    Id. at 8;
       USSC,    Statistical
    Information        Packet,    Fourth     Circuit,         Fiscal     Year     2013,    at   8
    (2013. The        median     case    processing         time   for   such     cases,      from
    inception until termination in district court, is approximately
    120 days. Motivans, Immigration Offenders, at 25.
    For        those      lacking         documentation,            disproportionate
    sentencing is still another cause for concern. Recent literature
    has indicated that one’s immigration status – in addition to
    one’s     race    –    becomes      fodder   for    disparate        treatment       at   the
    sentencing stage. See Michael T. Light, The New Face of Legal
    Inequality: Noncitizens and the Long-Term Trends in Sentencing
    Disparities Across U.S. District Courts, 1992-2009, 48 L. & Soc.
    Rev. 447 (2014); see also Jeff Yates, et al., A War on Drugs or
    a   War      on    Immigrants?        Expanding         the    Definition       of     “Drug
    27
    Trafficking”     in     Determining          Aggravated         Felon     Status        for
    Noncitizens, 
    64 Md. L
    . Rev. 875, 880-81 (2005). According to one
    study,   non-citizens     are    over       three    times      more     likely    to    be
    incarcerated compared to similarly situated citizens. Light, at
    465. And the length of non-citizens’ prison terms were adversely
    affected,     too:     they    were     8.5     percent         longer     than    their
    counterparts,       suggesting    “a       broader       pattern    of    punitiveness
    against non-U.S. citizens, culminating in more incarceration and
    longer prison terms.” 
    Id. at 466;
    470.
    All    told,     almost    one-quarter         of    the   Bureau     of     Prisons
    population is composed of non-citizens – over 50,000 people -
    and that has been the case since at least 2011. The overwhelming
    majority serves time for drug convictions (44%), illegal reentry
    (33%), illegal entry (6%), or some combination thereof, and the
    average sentence for this population is approximately 85 months.
    Bureau   of   Prisons    Office       of    Public       Affairs,      Information      on
    Sentenced Inmates by U.S. Citizen and non-U.S. Citizen as of
    Sept. 2013 (July 2014) (saved as ECF opinion attachment). * Of
    course, common practice for most of these non-citizen criminals
    is that they are passed along to be civilly deported once their
    federal sentences come to an end.
    *
    These data were provided directly to me, upon request, by
    the Bureau of Prisons.
    28
    II.
    Any reader who has come this far has my deep appreciation.
    Let’s examine legal doctrine.
    It is against the above backdrop that we are called upon to
    decide the appeal of Mr. Jose Ramon Solis Valdovinos.
    The    facts   governing     Mr.     Valdovinos’s   appeal   are   not
    complicated: we know that in July 2009, he pled guilty in state
    court to four counts of selling heroin over a four-week period
    during the fall of 2008. Had he chosen to proceed to trial and,
    upon conviction, to sentencing without a binding plea agreement,
    Mr. Valdovinos would have faced a maximum sentence of sixteen
    months. N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1340.17(c) & (d) (2008). But we
    also know that, upon his actual conviction, the state sentencing
    court ceased to have the option of sentencing him in that range.
    Because the state prosecutor had offered a plea agreement, and
    because    the   state   judge   unconditionally    approved   its   terms,
    including the binding provision to impose a sentence of no more
    than twelve months, the court could only sentence Mr. Valdovinos
    to a determinate range of ten to twelve months’ imprisonment.
    J.A. 80. And so it did. 
    Id. The underlying
    legal issue is also straightforward. Though
    we are guided by Supreme Court holdings in Carachuri-Rosendo v.
    Holder, 
    560 U.S. 563
    (2010), and United States v. Rodriquez, 
    553 U.S. 377
    (2008), as well as our own precedent in Simmons and its
    29
    progeny, see infra, my colleagues and I are in agreement that
    this case presents a novel issue of federal sentencing law, one
    that   is     posed       only     by    virtue       of    the   special       circumstances
    presented by prior convictions under North Carolina’s Structured
    Sentencing Act and obtained pursuant to a related state statute
    authorizing a certain kind of plea agreement. The particular
    question is: which characteristic of Mr. Valdovinos’s 2009 North
    Carolina conviction, (1) the terms of his judicially-accepted,
    and therefore statutorily-binding, non-felony (for federal law
    purposes)         sentence,       imposed       by     virtue     of    a   duly-negotiated
    binding plea agreement, or (2) the sentence that could have been
    imposed      on     a    defendant       with    his       offense     class    and   criminal
    history category who goes to trial or pleads guilty without the
    benefit of a binding plea agreement, should govern the analysis
    of whether he has committed a prior “felony . . . offense” for
    purposes of § 2L1.2(b)(1)(B), the federal sentencing enhancement
    applicable          to     those        convicted       of     illegal         reentry    after
    deportation.
    The    majority         chooses     the       latter    option,      largely      on   the
    ground       that        the   “principles            animating        [the]     decision     in
    Simmons,” ante, at 12, support such a conclusion. Perhaps so. I
    choose the former, and my reasoning is as follows: (1) it is
    wholly       consistent          with     the        lessons      of    Carachuri-Rosendo,
    Rodriquez, and Simmons, and their “animating principles,” not
    30
    least among them a due regard for federalism interests, and (2)
    in the absence of precedent mandating a result, our decision
    ought      to    be    grounded      in   an    informed      understanding             of   the
    realities of the existing state and federal sentencing regimes
    and the consequences that our rulings may bring to bear.
    A.
    Let       us    begin   with    the      Supreme      Court’s      instructions          in
    Carachuri-Rosendo and Rodriquez. Both cases involved the use of
    a   defendant’s          prior   state      conviction       to     justify       the    later
    imposition of enhanced penalties under federal law, and both
    teach   a       single    lesson:    “[W]e      are    to   look    to    the     conviction
    itself as our starting place, not to what might have or could
    have been charged.” 
    Carachuri-Rosendo, 560 U.S. at 576
    (emphasis
    added). In Carachuri-Rosendo, the Court eschewed the so-called
    “hypothetical” approach, which would have permitted federal law
    to treat the defendant as having committed an aggravated felony
    if, hypothetically, his previous state court proceedings could
    have treated him as such. This method, according to the Court,
    inappropriately           ignored     both      “the     conviction        (the     relevant
    statutory hook), and the conduct actually punished by the state
    offense.” 
    Id. at 580.
    We    later      observed,     in     United     States      v.    Simmons,       that   a
    state court finding could “set the maximum term of imprisonment,
    but only when the finding [of recidivism] is a part of the
    31
    record of conviction.” 
    649 F.3d 237
    , 243 (4th Cir. 2011) (en
    banc)      (quoting   
    Carachuri-Rosendo, 560 U.S. at 577
    ,       n.12)
    (emphasis added). And “in those cases in which the records that
    may properly be consulted do not show that the defendant faced
    the possibility of a recidivist enhancement, it may well be that
    the    Government     will    be       precluded     from    establishing         that    a
    conviction was for a qualifying offense.” 
    Rodriquez, 553 U.S. at 389
    . Use of “facts outside the record of conviction . . . cannot
    and     does   not”   substantiate           a    conclusion    to    the       contrary.
    
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    (internal citations omitted).
    No one doubts that a sentence of twelve months does not
    qualify as a felony sentence under federal law. (The majority
    opinion elides Mr. Valdovinos’s careful differentiation between
    the definitions of “felony” for state and federal purposes, as
    it elides, as well, his differentiation between “felons” and
    “aggravated offenders.” Ante, at 15-16.) If we look, as Simmons
    instructs, to Mr. Valdovinos’s record of conviction, it is clear
    that his conviction was not “punishable by imprisonment for a
    term    exceeding     one    year”      as   is    required     by   the    Sentencing
    Guidelines. U.S.S.G. § 2L1.2 cmt. n.2. According to the state
    court judgment, the court “impose[d] the prison term pursuant to
    a   plea    arrangement      as   to    sentence     under     Article     58    of    G.S.
    Chapter 15A.” J.A. 80. The court had accepted Mr. Valdovinos’s
    guilty plea, and, under North Carolina law, it was obligated to
    32
    impose the sentence agreed to by the prosecutor and defendant,
    which, in this case, was ten to twelve months.
    Mr.    Valdovinos’s    appeal        underscores    a    crucial
    characteristic of the plea negotiation system as enacted by the
    North   Carolina   legislature:    once    the   plea   agreement   is
    “approved,” Article 58 of G.S. Chapter 15A “establish[es the]
    maximum term of imprisonment” that can legally be imposed on a
    particular defendant. 
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    . Specifically,
    under North Carolina law,
    Before accepting a plea pursuant to a plea arrangement
    in which the prosecutor has agreed to recommend a
    particular sentence, the judge must advise the parties
    whether he approves the arrangement and will dispose
    of the case accordingly. If the judge rejects the
    arrangement, he must so inform the parties, refuse to
    accept the defendant’s plea of guilty or no contest,
    and advise the defendant personally that neither the
    State nor the defendant is bound by the rejected
    arrangement.
    N.C. Gen. Stat. § 15A-1023(b) (emphasis added). Indeed, that is
    the entire point of the system: once a judge accepts a 1023(b)
    guilty plea, she is bound by the terms of the corresponding plea
    agreement, and she may not go on to rewrite its terms in a
    manner she sees fit. Cf. Freeman v. United States, 
    131 S. Ct. 2685
    , 2696 (2011) (Sotomayor, J., concurring) (observing that
    the “very purpose” of Fed. R. Crim. P. 11(c)(1)(C), the federal
    analogue of a North Carolina 1023(b) plea agreement, is “to bind
    the district court and allow the Government and the defendant to
    33
    determine what sentence he will receive.”). In other words, the
    North Carolina judge was not “guide[d]” by the terms of the plea
    agreement;    rather,    the   specific      sentence    is    “mandate[d]”        by
    North Carolina statutory law. Cf. 
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    .
    If the above language sounds familiar, this is because we
    pointed to this precise characteristic to support our conclusion
    in Simmons that the North Carolina Structured Sentencing Act
    should inform our federal predicate felony analysis. There, we
    observed that the North Carolina legislature had set forth a
    rigid    procedure      that    made        sentencing    ranges       “strictly
    contingent”   on   a    defendant’s    offense    class       and   prior   record
    level, and expressly limited sentences above that range “unless
    the judge makes written findings” on the record. 
    Id. at 240.
    Unlike the federal Guidelines system, under which the sentencing
    judge could impose a sentence outside of the suggested range, a
    North   Carolina   judge   lacked     such    discretion.      To   read    into    a
    state conviction a finding of aggravation that no judge ever
    made, and that (as in the instant case) is beyond the legal
    authority of the sentencing judge to make at all, is to use
    “facts outside the record of conviction” in a manner barred by
    Carachuri-Rosendo. 
    Id. at 244-45.
    Though the government boldly takes the position that some
    enactments of the North Carolina legislature are more important
    than others, this argument is unavailing. Through Article 58 of
    34
    G.S. Chapter 15A, the North Carolina legislature has implemented
    a    rigid    procedure          that    makes         sentencing      ranges          “strictly
    contingent”        on    the     agreed-upon          plea   agreement      -    and    in   fact
    allows    for      no    option    for     the    judge      to   sentence       a     defendant
    outside      that       range.    Mr.    Valdovinos’s         “record       of    conviction”
    makes clear that the maximum possible term of imprisonment was
    the range set forth in the plea agreement, and, as to this
    “conviction itself,” the state court was compelled to impose a
    sentence no greater than one year. We should take Carachuri-
    Rosendo and Simmons at their word and decline the government’s
    invitation to pick and choose among subsisting enactments of the
    North Carolina legislature, assigning to such enactments tiers
    of importance or creating statutory hierarchies that have no
    basis whatsoever in federal sentencing law.
    The    majority          disagrees.        By    the   “conviction         itself,”     it
    hastens      to    explain,       Simmons    actually          meant   the       “offense     of
    conviction” itself, and by the “offense of conviction” itself,
    it   really       meant    an     offender’s          maximum     punishment         given   his
    offense class and criminal history point. My friends contend
    that Mr. Valdovinos’s argument does not make sense because it
    imparts undue importance to the “moment of conviction,” which is
    not, after all, some sort of “magical” moment. Ante, at 11.
    The “moment of conviction” may not be magical (little if
    anything          in     our      broken         criminal         justice        system       is,
    35
    notwithstanding its “considerable virtues” extolled by some, see
    Hon. J. Harvie Wilkinson III, In Defense of American Criminal
    Justice, 67 Vand. L. Rev. 1099, 1172 (2014)), but it certainly
    is a logical one, an apt benchmark to apply in the course of
    exercising       our    discretion     to    make       choices          about     mass    and
    prolonged incarceration. And though it is painfully obvious to
    say so, there simply is no “conviction itself,” see Carachuri-
    
    Rosendo, 560 U.S. at 576
    , until the “moment” of conviction, and
    there can be no “record of conviction,” see 
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 243
    , until the judge “approves” the plea agreement and accepts
    the guilty plea. “Any bargain between the parties is contingent
    until the court accepts the agreement.” 
    Freeman, 131 S. Ct. at 2692
        (plurality      op.);   see      also     
    id., 131 S.
         Ct.    at     2696
    (Sotomayor,       J.,    concurring)       (treating         as     important,       if     not
    “magical,” “the moment of sentencing”). Unless and until the
    guilty    plea    is    accepted,    the    state       of    affairs        surrounding     a
    North    Carolina       defendant   with     the    benefit         of   a    1023(b)     plea
    agreement    is     speculative      at     best    –        and    certainly       just    as
    “hypothetical” as the circumstances, addressed in Simmons and
    Rodriquez, of a person who stands charged with offense conduct
    that could have exposed him to an aggravated sentencing range
    but the prosecutor and/or judge declined to pursue that course.
    If hypotheticals are inoperative in the latter circumstances,
    then they should be inoperative in the former.
    36
    *       *      *         *         *
    The critical point here is that neither the holding nor the
    reasoning    of     Simmons         mandates       the    proper         resolution     of    this
    case.     Despite      the    protestation           from          the       majority   to    the
    contrary, ante, at 18, Carachuri-Rosendo and Simmons are not
    “controlling” here, in that their “animating principles” do not
    compel the result reached by the majority. (Of course, on the
    other    hand,    there      is     a   reason      why      our       opinions   are   labeled
    “majority”       and   “dissent:”           they    have     the        votes,    but   not    the
    better approach or the better arguments.)
    Whether or not the majority will acknowledge it, we have a
    choice in fashioning our rule of decision here, as appellate
    judges    sometimes       do.       What     might       inform        our    choice    in    this
    instance?
    B.
    How about the important federalism interests at stake in
    this case?
    That is, in the course of offering the plea agreement at
    issue, the state of North Carolina evaluated Mr. Valdovinos’s
    background and the circumstances of the case and determined that
    he deserved a sentence of ten to twelve months - or, more aptly
    put, that he did not deserve a sentence of any greater duration
    than twelve months. This decision was made by the state’s local
    prosecutors, whom we presume to have their fingers on the pulse
    37
    of   community       concerns    and    to    act    with    genuine       regard     for
    community mores. Their decision-making authority is of course
    validated by the state Constitution and statutes, as well as its
    corresponding rules of procedure. Today’s holding goes far to
    derogate     the    discretion    and    independence         exercised      by     state
    officials to enforce their own laws.
    Both Carachuri-Rosendo and Simmons expressed concern that
    applying     hypothetical       sentencing      enhancements        to   prior    state
    convictions triggers significant federalism concerns. Carachuri-
    Rosendo emphasized that the federal sentencing regime should not
    “denigrate     the    independent      judgment      of     state   prosecutors       to
    execute the laws” of their 
    states. 560 U.S. at 580
    . And we have
    reiterated that when a state prosecutor has “declined to pursue”
    a defendant as an aggravated offender, we ought not to “second-
    guess” her judgment. Simmons, 649 at 249-50.
    The    same    logic   applies     here    –   in     fact,    even    more     so,
    insofar as it involves the independent but collective exercise
    of   the    combined    constitutional        authority       of    both    the     state
    prosecutor and the state judge, each expressing the community’s
    judgment that Mr. Valdovinos is not among the most dangerous and
    incorrigible offenders deserving of the full retributive weight
    allowed under state law.
    For any number of reasons, be it pragmatism, compassion, or
    otherwise, the state prosecutor (and state judge) weighed the
    38
    recourses       available        to     her        and     opted    to      agree       to    an
    incarceration      term     of    no    more        than    one    year.     What       today’s
    holding says is that that doesn’t matter: federal courts can and
    will    “second-guess”           this       judgment.        Even        though     a    state
    prosecutor (and state judge) chose a shorter, more humane term
    of imprisonment, we are urged to disregard her decision because
    it does not comport with the policy choice of one United States
    Attorney’s Office as to its view of state sentencing values.
    The government concedes, as it must, that “a guilty plea
    entered into [sic] under § 15A-1023(b) restricts a sentencing
    judge’s discretion,” Gov. Br. 19, but the majority concludes
    that this does not matter. It points to the fact that each plea
    agreement   is     individualized,            hinging       on    “the    ability       of   the
    parties to reach a deal,” ante, at 12-13. And it emphasizes the
    fact that Mr. Valdovinos “chose to plead guilty under a plea
    agreement       that   allowed        him     to    avoid     trial,”       ante,       at   15.
    Manifestly, this describes every plea agreement, all of which
    also “allow” the prosecutor to “avoid trial.” The majority’s
    reasoning is aimed at identifying a seeming contrast, I suppose,
    to the Structured Sentencing Act’s more wide-lensed “reflect[ion
    of] North Carolina’s judgment as to the seriousness of a North
    Carolina crime.” Ante, at 12. But its reasoning proves too much.
    First,    the   majority’s           assertion       that    “a     plea     agreement
    reflects only the interests of the prosecutor and individual
    39
    defendant,” 
    id., would surely
    strike many as shockingly ill-
    informed. Every federal district judge in this circuit knows
    that   plea    agreements    in     the   federal    system          are     subjected   to
    rigorous review for conformity to broad policies by multiple
    levels   of    supervisory     prosecutors,        whose          initials    customarily
    appear    in   the   margins      of    the     written       agreements.       Cf.    Vera
    Institute      Study,   at     115-16         (describing          Manhattan       District
    Attorney’s guidelines for plea agreement offers). There is no
    reason to suppose, as the majority opinion seems to suggest,
    that conscientious prosecutors in a jurisdiction as large as
    Mecklenburg      County,    North      Carolina    are     any       less    rigorous    in
    fulfilling their responsibilities to the public. In my view,
    such    discretionary      exercises      of     state    authority          are    equally
    instructive – if not more so – of “North Carolina’s judgment as
    to the seriousness” of a criminal offense committed within its
    jurisdiction and in violation of its own law.
    Indeed, the fact that the North Carolina legislature has
    instituted such a plea agreement system in the first instance
    belies the majority’s dismissive approach. As every prosecutor
    and    criminal   practitioner         well    knows,     a       plea   agreement     that
    binds a judge to a particular sentence is a horse of a different
    color, for most judges will not routinely bind themselves. That
    the    special    procedure       is   embodied     in        a    duly-enacted       state
    statute undoubtedly heightens the respect we owe it. I simply
    40
    fail to see how the particularized evaluation of the need for
    just   punishment   by   a   local   prosecutor   (an   agent   of   a    duly-
    elected, Constitutional officer of the sovereign State of North
    Carolina), under the authority of state statutory law, of the
    actual facts at issue, and agreed to by a state judge (likewise,
    a duly-elected, Constitutional officer of the sovereign State of
    North Carolina), can be dismissed so blithely.
    And while it is certainly true that Mr. Valdovinos “chose
    to plead guilty under a plea agreement that allowed him to avoid
    trial[,]” ante, at 15, the benefits afforded to the prosecutor
    when a plea agreement is accepted are equally individualized and
    equally critical to the administration of her office’s duties.
    “[T]he reality [is] that criminal justice today is for the most
    part a system of pleas, not a system of trials”. Lafler v.
    Cooper, 
    132 S. Ct. 1376
    , 1388 (2012); see also 
    id. (over 97%
    of
    federal convictions and 94% of state convictions are a result of
    guilty   pleas);    USSC,    Statistical   Information     Packet,       Fourth
    Circuit, Fiscal Year 2013, at 8 (2013) (guilty pleas resolve
    98.6% of immigration cases in the Fourth Circuit). It is true
    that the presiding prosecutor offers plea agreements for any
    number of reasons: a weak case, a sympathetic defendant, the
    expense of trial, and on and on. As a matter of course, however,
    she will only reach a plea agreement if it is in the state’s
    interest (i.e., the community’s interest) to do so.
    41
    Actually, the majority’s ostensible distinction between the
    sentencing act and the plea agreement statute seems to distract
    more    than        it    informs.        There          is     no    doubt      that        any    plea
    negotiation          system       is,     by       its        very     nature,     flexible          and
    individualized,             grounded           in        real        world      intentions           and
    consequences. But there is also no doubt that it plays a crucial
    role     in     North           Carolina’s          sentencing          scheme.        Though        its
    instructions cannot be fashioned into a neat table or grid, it
    strictly       and       steadfastly       “mandates            [the]       specific     sentences”
    available       to        the     state    court          when        the     court     accepts        a
    prosecutor’s recommended sentence for any given conviction. Cf.
    
    Simmons, 649 F.3d at 244
    . At least according to Simmons, that is
    what should carry the day.
    III.
    My point thus far has been that the lessons of Carachuri-
    Rosendo       and    Rodriquez       are       consistent            with    acceptance        of    Mr.
    Valdovinos’s argument, and that the principles animating Simmons
    remain equally at play in this case, as well. In other words, as
    is     common       in     cases     involving            the        intricacies        of     federal
    sentencing law, our traditional tools do not provide us with a
    clearly       mandated          holding.       I     do       not     believe     that        my    good
    colleagues in the majority dispute this; rather, where we differ
    is what we choose to do with this jurisprudential license.
    42
    The truly baffling question is why, when presented with a
    choice   in     the    interpretation             of    federal          sentencing       law,     any
    federal appellate judge acting in good faith (as my friends in
    the    majority       indisputably          are)        would      choose     to     exacerbate,
    rather    than      mitigate,         the    harmful          effects       of     our    nation’s
    “throw-away-the-key” approach to incarceration?
    Now, more than ever, every measure of political and social
    scientists has recognized that our nation’s mass incarceration
    strategies      have    been     a     “moral,          legal,        social,      and    economic
    disaster” that “cannot end soon enough.” Editorial, End Mass
    Incarceration         Now,     N.Y.    Times,           May     24,      2014,     p.    SR10.      In
    February of this year, the U.S. House of Representatives renewed
    the   bipartisan       task     force       it     created         to    review     the       federal
    criminal      code     and     the     trend           toward      “over-criminalization;”
    groups   who     have    testified          in     support         of    reform     include        the
    American   Bar       Association,           the    Heritage         Foundation,          and,      just
    this past month, the Judicial Conference of the United States
    and the Sentencing Commission. See Hearings Before the Over-
    Criminalization         Task    Force        of    2013       of    the    Committee          on   the
    Judiciary, House of Representatives (June 14, 2013) (Testimony
    of    William     N.    Shepherd,       American           Bar      Association;          John      G.
    Malcolm,      The      Heritage        Foundation);                
    id. (Jul. 11,
        2014)
    (Testimony of Hon. Irene M. Keeley, Judicial Conference of the
    United States; Hon. Patti B. Saris, USSC).
    43
    The consensus for reform includes, not least of all, the
    Attorney General himself, who has concluded that “far too many
    Americans [are] serving too much time in too many prisons – and
    beyond the point of serving any good law enforcement reason.”
    Eric G. Holder, Attorney General, Remarks at Fourth Meeting of
    Ministers Responsible for Public Security in the Americas (Nov.
    21,               2013),                in               Justice                     News,
    http://www.justice.gov/iso/opa/ag/speeches/2013/ag-speech-
    131121.html (saved as ECF opinion attachment). The Department of
    Justice   has       directed     federal     prosecutors       to   exercise         their
    discretion toward minimizing the number of inmates in federal
    prisons   for     low-level      drug   crimes    and    has    urged    Congress      to
    enact   changes      in    the   federal     sentencing        guidelines       to   that
    effect.     See     U.S.    Department       of   Justice,       Smart     on    Crime:
    Reforming     the    Criminal     Justice       System   for    the     21st    Century
    (2013).
    In fact, even as I write this, the United States Sentencing
    Commission has issued a momentous, unanimous decision providing
    that    its     previously-approved          Guidelines        amendment        reducing
    federal drug base offense levels by two would be retroactively
    applied. While Congress retains the authority to reject this
    twenty-first century innovation before the end of this year, it
    seems highly unlikely that it will do so, for all the reasons
    discussed herein. It is, indeed, nearly impossible to keep up
    44
    with   the   groundswell    of    support     evidencing     our   long-overdue
    recognition    that     federal   sentencing     law   and    policy   are    in
    desperate need of repair.
    All of this gives me pause. We federal judges have invested
    no uncertain effort into crafting our tools of legal analysis,
    and on many occasions those traditional tools reveal a true and
    worthy answer. But at a point where actors from all sides of the
    political spectrum have concluded that federal sentencing law
    and policies have gone off the rails, at a point where even the
    Executive Branch has recognized that “widespread incarceration
    at the federal, state, and local levels is both ineffective and
    unsustainable,” see Holder Speech at ABA, I would think that our
    analytical    process     ought   not    to   blink    at    these   very    real
    concerns.
    The majority opinion declines to examine Mr. Valdovinos’s
    case through this lens, clinging instead to the myopic notion
    that only our ostensibly “legal” analytical tools dictate the
    holding in his case. I understand, in some instances, the need
    for formalist thought and decision-making. But in the context of
    federal sentencing, and in the face of mounting evidence of the
    societal costs of this sort of legal reasoning, I cannot condone
    or join in it.
    I suppose, in truth, this case is really United States v.
    Kerr, 
    737 F.3d 33
    (4th Cir. 2013), redux. (Kerr earns a single
    45
    citation in the majority opinion, see ante, at 16, but it looms,
    ominously, over this appeal.) Just as the North Carolina state
    judge there had discretion to sentence in the presumptive range
    (but did not), so too, here, the North Carolina state judge had
    discretion to reject the binding plea agreement (but did not).
    In each instance, reliance on an inchoate, hypothetical state of
    affairs to lengthen a federal sentence runs into the teeth of
    the relevant circuit precedents. I dissented in Kerr and I do so
    here. Formalist, counter-factual responses to real world events
    hold no comfort for me when the subject is federal sentencing.
    IV.
    I am reminded of the following prudent instruction from the
    National Academy of Sciences:
    The decision to deprive another human being of his or
    her liberty is, at root, anchored in beliefs about the
    just relationship between the individual and society
    and the role of criminal sanctions in preserving the
    social   compact.   Thus,   good  justice    policy is
    necessarily based on a combination of empirical
    research and explicit normative commitments.
    National     Research     Council      Report,     at    341.     Where   there     are
    choices    that    can   be     made   that     would   permit    progress    in    the
    individual case without doing harm to the transcendent legal
    infrastructure rooted in deductive reasoning, we can and should
    choose that path.
    Here,    in    a    tiny    corner   of     the    chaotic    morass    that    is
    federal sentencing law, Mr. Valdovinos has offered us a measured
    46
    approach,      to    a    novel    issue    of       federal     sentencing         law,    that
    adheres to Supreme Court and our relevant circuit precedents and
    is consistent with our values. If accepted by this panel, his
    argument, which is surely more than merely “clever”, see ante,
    at 8, would affect a tiny number of federal cases drawing legal
    relevance from North Carolina’s historical (and now superseded)
    sentencing regime. And Mr. Valdovinos’s sentence in this case
    likely would be reduced to a bottom guideline of 15 months,
    instead of the bottom guideline sentence he received, 27 months.
    He’d soon be on his way home to Mexico, if not already arrived.
    That the majority declines the opportunity to decide this
    case    on    the    foundations      discussed          herein       is     regrettable,       a
    choice      that    not   only    ignores       the    growing        wisdom      informed    by
    widespread         acknowledgement         of    our    unjust        federal       sentencing
    jurisprudence, but actually hinders its progress. Would that my
    friends could see that it’s a new century, complete with a host
    of profound and valuable insights at our avail. I discern no
    compelling reason why, in the performance of our adjudicative
    responsibilities,           which     every           member     of         the     panel     has
    unfailingly carried out to the best of our ability in this case
    and    in    full    accordance      with       our    solemn        oath    to   “administer
    justice,”      28    U.S.C.       § 453,    we       ought     not    to     draw    on     these
    insights.
    47
    One of them is that sometimes, in our shared quest for
    justice under law, it requires so little of us to achieve so
    much.
    Respectfully, I dissent.
    48