Impax Lab v. FTC ( 2021 )


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  • Case: 19-60394     Document: 00515819158          Page: 1    Date Filed: 04/13/2021
    United States Court of Appeals
    for the Fifth Circuit                               United States Court of Appeals
    Fifth Circuit
    FILED
    April 13, 2021
    No. 19-60394                       Lyle W. Cayce
    Clerk
    Impax Laboratories, Incorporated, a corporation,
    Petitioner,
    versus
    Federal Trade Commission,
    Respondent.
    On Petition for Review of an Order of the
    Federal Trade Commission
    FTC Docket No. 9373
    Before Southwick, Costa, and Duncan, Circuit Judges.
    Gregg Costa, Circuit Judge:
    Normally, when lawsuits settle the defendant pays the plaintiff. That
    makes sense as the defendant is the party accused of wrongdoing.
    But when a generic drug is poised to enter the market and threaten the
    monopoly enjoyed by a brand-name pharmaceutical, federal law can
    incentivize a different type of settlement. The Hatch-Waxman Act delays
    the entry of the generic drug if the brand-drug manufacturer files a patent
    infringement suit against the generic. Those patent suits are sometimes
    settled with the brand-drug plaintiff paying the allegedly-infringing generic.
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    In return for the payment, the generic agrees to delay its market entry beyond
    the date when the FDA would allow it to compete. The result is an extension
    of the brand drug’s monopoly.
    Given the counterintuitive flow of money in this scenario—to, rather
    than from, the alleged wrongdoer—such deals are called “reverse payment
    settlements.” The Supreme Court has held that these settlements that
    extend the brand drug’s monopoly can have anticompetitive effects that
    violate the antitrust laws. FTC v. Actavis, 
    570 U.S. 136
    , 158 (2013). Reverse
    payment settlements, however, are not automatically invalid; they are subject
    to the rule of reason. 
    Id. at 159
    .
    In its first post-Actavis reverse payment case, the Federal Trade
    Commission charged Impax Laboratories with antitrust violations for
    accepting payments ultimately worth more than $100 million to delay the
    entry of its generic drug for more than two years.                The resulting
    administrative hearing included testimony from 37 witnesses and over 1,200
    exhibits. Based on that record, the Commission conducted a rule-of-reason
    analysis and unanimously concluded that Impax violated antitrust law.
    On appeal, we face a narrower task: determining whether the
    Commission committed any legal errors and whether substantial evidence
    supported its factual findings. Concluding that the Commission’s ruling
    passes muster on both fronts, we DENY the petition for review.
    I.
    A.
    Anyone who buys pharmaceuticals knows that generic drugs are
    cheaper than their brand counterparts. The first generic to enter the market
    typically costs 10 to 25 percent less than the branded drug; those discounts
    grow to between 50 and 80 percent once other generics enter.
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    To bring competition to the drug market, the Hatch-Waxman Act
    promotes entry for these generics. Actavis, 570 U.S. at 142. Rather than
    undergoing the lengthy and costly approval process that a new drug faces,
    generics can file an Abbreviated New Drug Application with the Food and
    Drug Administration. Id. at 142; 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j). If the generic drug is
    biologically equivalent to a brand drug the FDA has already approved, then
    the generic can essentially “piggy-back on the pioneer’s approval efforts.”
    Actavis, 570 U.S. at 142; 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j)(2)(A)(i)–(iv). The Act offers an
    additional carrot to the first generic applicant: it can market its generic drug
    for 180 days without competition from any other generic manufacturer.
    Actavis, 570 U.S. at 143–44; 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j)(5)(B)(iv). During this period
    of exclusivity, the newly approved generic only faces competition from the
    brand drug or a generic sold by the brand manufacturer. Actavis, 570 U.S. at
    143–44. In effect, the statute allows a duopoly during those 180 days. A first-
    to-file generic often realizes most of its profits, potentially “several hundred
    million dollars,” during this initial six-month period. Id. at 143 (quoting C.
    Scott Hemphill, Paying for Delay: Pharmaceutical Patent Settlement as a
    Regulatory Design Problem, 
    81 N.Y.U. L. Rev. 1553
    , 1579 (2006)).
    Generic entry is not so easy when there is a patent for the brand drug.
    The Hatch-Waxman Act also addresses this common situation. If the brand
    manufacturer asserts a patent in its initial drug application, then the generic
    manufacturer must certify in its application that the patent is invalid or that
    its drug will not infringe the patent. 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j)(2)(A)(vii)(IV). If the
    brand manufacturer disagrees (it likely will), it may file a patent infringement
    suit. 
    35 U.S.C. § 271
    (e)(2)(A). And if it does so within 45 days, the FDA is
    stayed from approving the generic application until either 30 months have
    passed or the patent litigation concludes. 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j)(5)(B)(iii); see
    also Actavis, 570 U.S. at 143 (describing these procedures). This delay for the
    first generic’s entry also postpones the potential entry of other generics.
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    They must wait for the same 30-month stay and then for the expiration of the
    first generic’s 6-month exclusivity period before entering the market.
    What happens if the patent suit against the first generic settles? The
    brand manufacturer no longer faces an immediate threat of competition from
    new generic entrants. The 30-month statutory stay restarts if the brand
    maker brings a patent suit against another generic that wishes to enter the
    market. Actavis, 570 U.S. at 155 (citing 
    21 U.S.C. § 355
    (j)(5)(B)(iii)). Plus,
    any subsequent generic is not entitled to the exclusivity period. 
    Id.
     That
    greatly reduces the potential benefit of challenging the brand maker’s patent.
    
    Id.
     (noting that subsequent generics “stand to win significantly less than the
    first if they bring a successful” challenge to the patent).
    These features of the Hatch-Waxman Act—the period of exclusivity
    for the first generic; the 30-month stay of the generic’s FDA application
    when the brand maker sues for infringement; and the reduced incentive a
    subsequent generic has to challenge the brand maker’s patent—can lead the
    brand maker to pay large sums for delaying entry of the first generic maker.
    Actavis, 570 U.S. at 155 (recognizing that these Hatch-Waxman “features
    together mean that a reverse payment settlement with the first filer . . .
    ‘removes from consideration the most motivated challenger, and the one
    closest to introducing competition” (quoting Hemphill, Paying for Delay,
    supra, at 1586)).
    B.
    The facts of this case show those incentives in action. The drug at
    issue is a type of oxymorphone, which is an opioid. Endo, the brand-name
    drug maker in this case, started selling an extended-release formulation of
    oxymorphone called Opana ER in 2006. An extended-release pain reliever
    provides medication to the bloodstream over several hours, as opposed to
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    immediate-release opioids which are short-acting. When it entered the
    market, Opana ER was the only extended-release version of oxymorphone.
    In late 2007, Impax filed the first application to market generic
    extended-release oxymorphone. The application did not result in prompt
    approval of the generic, however, because Endo held patents for Opana ER
    that would not expire until 2013. Endo sued Impax for patent infringement
    in January 2008, delaying any FDA approval of the generic for 30 months—
    until June 2010—unless the litigation concluded earlier.
    Early settlement talks failed, with Endo rejecting Impax’s proposed
    entry dates of January 2011, July 2011, December 2011, or January 2012.
    The June 2010 expiration of the Hatch-Waxman stay loomed.
    Delaying Impax’s entry beyond the stay period would save Endo millions.
    Endo had projected that generic entry would cut Opana ER sales by 85
    percent within three months and cost it $100 million in revenue within six
    months.
    But extending the period in which it could sell Opana ER without
    competition was just one of Endo’s priorities.         The drug maker had
    something else in the works: It planned to move consumers to a new brand-
    name drug that would not face competition for years. Endo would remove
    the original Opana ER from the market, replace it with a crush-resistant
    version of the drug, and obtain new patents to protect the reformulated drug.
    While Impax’s generic would still eventually reach the market, it would not
    be therapeutically equivalent to Endo’s new branded drug and thus
    pharmacists would not be able to automatically substitute the generic when
    filling prescriptions. This automatic substitution of brand drug prescriptions,
    promoted by state laws, is the primary driver of generic sales. So, if Endo
    succeeded in switching consumers to its reformulated drug, which would be
    just different enough from the original formulation to preclude substitution,
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    the market for Impax’s generic would shrink dramatically, preserving Endo’s
    monopoly profits.
    The success of this “product hop” 1 depended on the reformulated
    Opana ER reaching the market sufficiently in advance of Impax’s generic
    entry to allow patients to move away from the original drug before
    pharmacists started substituting the generic version. This transition period
    to the reformulated drug would take roughly six to nine months. A successful
    transition to the reformulated Opana ER before generic entry would mean
    millions to Endo. The company projected that the reformulated Opana ER
    would generate about $200 million in annual sales by 2016 if the market
    transitioned to the new drug before the generic entered. But if the generic
    launched first, then 2016 sales of the new formulation would fall to $10
    million.
    The date when Impax could start selling its generic was thus critical.
    The FDA tentatively approved Impax’s application in May 2010. The
    Hatch-Waxman stay would expire the next month. There were signs that
    Impax was planning to launch its generic soon thereafter. 2
    With the possible launch date for generic entry imminent, Endo
    restarted settlement negotiations just three days after the FDA’s tentative
    approval of the generic. The parties settled the patent litigation in June 2010,
    1
    Product hopping can itself be anticompetitive. See generally New York ex rel.
    Schneiderman v. Actavis PLC, 
    787 F.3d 638
    , 643 & n.2, 652–59 (2d Cir. 2015); Alan Devlin,
    Exclusionary Strategies in the Hatch-Waxman Context, 2007 MICH. ST. L. REV. 631, 657 –
    673 (crediting Professor Hovenkamp with the “product hop” term).
    2
    If Impax entered the market before resolution of the patent litigation, it would risk
    paying any damages for its sales in the event Endo later proved infringement. This is called
    “at risk” entry. See In re Lipitor Antitrust Lit., 
    868 F.3d 231
    , 241 (3d Cir. 2017).
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    just a few days after the patent trial began and less than a week before the
    FDA fully approved Impax’s application.
    C.
    Under the settlement, Impax agreed to delay launching its generic
    until January 1, 2013—two and a half years after Impax otherwise could have
    entered “at-risk.” In turn, Endo agreed to not market its own generic version
    of extended-release oxymorphone until Impax’s 180-day Hatch-Waxman
    exclusivity period concluded in July 2013. Additionally, Endo agreed to pay
    Impax a credit if sales revenues for the original formulation of Opana ER fell
    by more than 50 percent between the dates of settlement and Impax’s entry.
    This credit served as an insurance policy for Impax, preserving the value of
    the settlement in case Endo undermined the generic oxymorphone market by
    transitioning consumers to the reformulated Opana ER. Endo also provided
    Impax with a broad license to Endo’s existing and future patents covering
    extended-release oxymorphone. Finally, Endo and Impax agreed to
    collaboratively develop a new Parkinson’s disease treatment, with Endo
    paying Impax $10 million immediately and up to $30 million in additional
    payments contingent on achieving sufficient development and marketing
    progress.
    Impax’s delayed entry allowed Endo to execute the product hop. In
    March 2012, Endo introduced its reformulated drug and withdrew the
    original drug. It publicly stated that the original drug was unsafe, though the
    FDA later disagreed that safety concerns motivated the withdrawal.
    Predictably, the market for the original Opana ER shriveled. So Endo had to
    pay Impax $102 million in credits. Endo subsequently succeeded in securing
    additional patents, and in 2015 and 2016 secured injunctions that prevented
    all manufacturers, including Impax, from marketing generic versions of the
    reformulated drug. But in 2017, the FDA asked Endo to voluntarily withdraw
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    the reformulated Opana ER from the market due to safety concerns, and it
    did.
    For its part, Impax began marketing original formulation generic
    oxymorphone in January 2013, despite the damaged market Endo left behind.
    Because of the injunctions Endo secured against other generics and because
    Endo eventually withdrew the reformulated Opana ER from the market,
    Impax’s generic is the only extended-release oxymorphone available to
    consumers today.
    D.
    The FTC brought separate actions against Endo and Impax alleging
    that the settlement was an unfair method of competition under the FTC Act
    and an unreasonable restraint on trade under the Sherman Act. Endo settled.
    Impax fought the charge and successfully argued that the case should proceed
    in an administrative proceeding rather than in federal district court where the
    Commission had first filed.
    An administrative law judge determined that the agreement restricted
    competition but was nevertheless lawful because its procompetitive benefits
    outweighed the anticompetitive effects. Reviewing both the facts and law de
    novo, 
    16 C.F.R. § 3.54
    (a), the Commission reached a different conclusion. It
    found that Impax had failed to show that the settlement had any
    procompetitive benefits.      Moreover, it determined that the purported
    benefits Impax identified could have been achieved through a less restrictive
    agreement. The Commission did not impose any monetary sanctions. It did
    not even invalidate Impax’s agreements with Endo or other drug makers.
    Instead, it issued a cease-and-desist order enjoining Impax from entering into
    similar reverse payment settlements going forward.
    Impax now petitions for review of the FTC’s order.
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    II.
    We review the Commission’s ruling, not the ALJ’s. N. Tex. Specialty
    Physicians v. FTC, 
    528 F.3d 346
    , 354 (5th Cir. 2008); cf. Shaikh v. Holder, 
    588 F.3d 861
    , 863 (5th Cir. 2009) (noting that we review the decision of the BIA
    in immigration cases). Any legal conclusions are reviewed de novo, though
    we “are to give some deference to the [FTC]’s informed judgment that a
    particular commercial practice is to be condemned as ‘unfair.’” N. Tex.
    Specialty, 
    528 F.3d at 354
     (quoting FTC v. Ind. Fed’n of Dentists, 
    476 U.S. 447
    , 454 (1986)).
    The “findings of the Commission as to the facts, if supported by
    evidence, shall be conclusive.” 
    15 U.S.C. § 45
    (c). That statutory command
    is “essentially identical” to the substantial-evidence standard that often
    governs judicial review of agency factfinding. Ind. Fed’n of Dentists, 
    476 U.S. at 454
    . Substantial evidence is “such relevant evidence as a reasonable mind
    might accept as adequate to support a conclusion.” 
    Id.
     (quoting Universal
    Camera Corp. v. NLRB, 
    340 U.S. 474
    , 477 (1951)). We must accept findings
    supported by such evidence “even if ‘suggested alternative conclusions may
    be equally or even more reasonable and persuasive.” N. Tex. Specialty, 
    528 F.3d at 354
     (quoting Colonial Stores, Inc. v. FTC, 
    450 F.2d 733
    , 739 (5th Cir.
    1971)). This deferential review should be no more searching than if we were
    evaluating a jury’s verdict. See District of Columbia v. Pace, 
    320 U.S. 698
    , 702
    (1944) (explaining that substantial evidence review is less intrusive than clear
    error review); 3 Steven Alan Childress & Martha S. Davis,
    Federal Standards of Review § 15.04 (same); Robert L. Stern,
    Review of Findings of Administrators, Judges and Juries: A Comparative
    Analysis, 
    58 Harv. L. Rev. 70
    , 84–86 (1944) (analyzing Justice Jackson’s
    opinion in Pace).
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    III.
    A reverse payment settlement is a settlement of patent litigation in
    which the patentholder gives the alleged infringer cash or other valuable
    services or property and the alleged infringer agrees not to market its
    allegedly infringing product until some later date. See Actavis, 570 U.S. at
    140. These horizontal agreements unlawfully restrain trade, see 
    15 U.S.C. § 1
    , if they cause anticompetitive effects that outweigh any procompetitive
    benefits. 3 See Actavis, 570 U.S. at 156–59.
    This rule-of-reason inquiry uses a burden-shifting framework. See
    Ohio v. Am. Express, 
    138 S. Ct. 2274
    , 2284 (2018). The initial burden is on
    the FTC to show anticompetitive effects. 
    Id.
     If the FTC succeeds in doing
    so, the burden shifts to Impax to demonstrate that the restraint produced
    procompetitive benefits. 
    Id.
     If Impax successfully proves procompetitive
    benefits, then the FTC can demonstrate that any procompetitive effects
    could be achieved through less anticompetitive means. 
    Id.
     Finally, if the
    FTC fails to demonstrate a less restrictive alternative way to achieve the
    procompetitive benefits, the court must balance the anticompetitive and
    procompetitive effects of the restraint. Apani Sw., Inc. v. Coca-Cola Enters.,
    Inc., 
    300 F.3d 620
    , 627 (5th Cir. 2002). If the anticompetitive harms
    outweigh the procompetitive benefits, then the agreement is illegal. 
    Id.
    A.
    The first question is whether the agreement caused anticompetitive
    effects or “created the potential for anticompetitive effects.” Doctor’s Hosp.
    3
    Reverse-payment settlements are also sometimes called “pay for delay”
    agreements. See FTC v. Watson Pharm., Inc., 
    677 F.3d 1298
    , 1301 (11th Cir. 2012), rev’d
    sub nom. FTC v. Actavis, 
    570 U.S. 136
     (2013). Following the Supreme Court’s lead, we use
    the term “reverse payment.”
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    of Jefferson, Inc. v. Se. Med. All., Inc., 
    123 F.3d 301
    , 310 (5th Cir. 1997); accord
    Retractable Techs, Inc. v. Becton Dickinson & Co., 
    842 F.3d 883
    , 895 (5th Cir.
    2016) (noting that an antitrust plaintiff must show that a restraint “had the
    potential to eliminate, or did in fact eliminate, competition”); see also Actavis,
    570 U.S. at 157 (noting that the “relevant anticompetitive harm” of a reverse
    payment settlement is “prevent[ing] the risk of competition”). Such effects
    may be proved “indirectly,” with “proof of market power plus some
    evidence that the challenged restraint harms competition.” 4 Am. Express
    Co., 
    138 S. Ct. at 2284
    .
    Anticompetitive effects are those that harm consumers.                  Think
    increased prices, decreased output, or lower quality goods. 
    Id.
     Eliminating
    potential competition is, by definition, anticompetitive. See, e.g., United
    States v. Falstaff Brewing Corp., 
    410 U.S. 526
    , 532–33 (1973) (acquiring
    potential competitor was anticompetitive both because of current pressure of
    potential entry and potentially beneficial effects of future entry). Indeed,
    paying a potential competitor not to compete is so detrimental to competition
    that normally it is a per se violation of the antitrust laws. See Palmer v. BRG of
    Ga., Inc., 
    498 U.S. 46
    , 48–49 (1990); see also Blue Cross & Blue Shield United
    of Wis. v. Marshfield Clinic, 
    65 F.3d 1406
    , 1415 (7th Cir. 1995) (Posner, C.J.)
    (suggesting that market allocation agreements are even more pernicious than
    price-fixing agreements because the former eliminates all forms of
    competition); Joshua P. Davis & Ryan J. McEwan, Deactivating Actavis: The
    Clash Between the Supreme Court and (Some) Lower Courts, 67 Rutgers
    U.L. Rev. 557, 559 (2015) (calling “an agreement between horizontal
    competitors not to compete, the bête noir of antitrust law”).
    4
    The FTC required that showing of market power to show potential
    anticompetitive effect under Actavis. Impax does not argue that it lacked market power—
    it held a patent after all—so we need not address that issue further.
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    Actavis concluded that, in contrast to the typical horizontal agreement
    to divvy up markets, reverse payment settlements might produce both anti-
    and procompetitive effects. On the one hand, a brand maker’s paying a
    generic to delay entry “in effect amounts to a purchase by the patentee of the
    exclusive right to sell its product, a right it already claims but would lose if
    the patent litigation were to continue and the patent were held invalid or not
    infringed by the generic product.” 570 U.S. at 153–54. In fact, reverse
    payment settlements may restrict competition even more than typical market
    allocation agreements because delaying entry of the first generic does not just
    eliminate one competitor—it prolongs the “bottleneck” that delays entry of
    other generic competitors. In re Nexium (Esomeprazole) Antitrust Lit., 
    842 F.3d 34
    , 41 (1st Cir. 2016). But the existence of patent—a lawful monopoly
    if valid—points in the other direction. If the patent is valid, then unlike
    traditional market allocation agreements, a settlement that allows generic
    entry after the FDA’s approval of the drug but still earlier than the patent
    expiration date may result in more competition than would have existed
    absent the settlement. Actavis, 570 U.S. at 154. Given the potentially
    countervailing impacts of reverse payment settlements, the Supreme Court
    applied the rule of reason rather than automatic invalidity. Id. at 159.
    At this first step of the rule-of-reason analysis, we are just focused on
    the anticompetitive side of the equation. Actavis held that a “large and
    unjustified” reverse payment creates a likelihood of “significant
    anticompetitive effects.” Id. at 158. “[T]he likelihood of a reverse payment
    bringing about anticompetitive effects depends upon its size, its scale in
    relation to the payor’s anticipated future litigation costs, its independence
    from other services for which it might represent payment, and the lack of any
    other convincing justification.” Id. at 159.
    In many reverse payment cases, the central dispute is whether there
    was in fact a reverse payment. Herbert Hovenkamp et al. IP &
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    Antitrust: An Analysis of Antitrust Principles Applied
    to Intellectual Property Law § 16.01 (2018 Supp.); see, e.g., In re
    Loestrin 24 Fe Antitrust Litig., 
    814 F.3d 538
    , 550–51 (1st Cir. 2016) (citing
    numerous post-Actvavis case addressing whether nonmonetary benefits to a
    generic are reverse payments). The settling party will often contend that any
    settlement payments are for services rather than for delayed entry. 
    Id.
     That
    is not the case here.       Impax has not challenged the ALJ’s original
    determination “that a large reverse payment helped induce settlement or
    that the payment was linked to the January 2013 entry date.”
    That concession makes sense in light of the valuable consideration
    Impax received in exchange for delaying entry. 5 We will note two significant
    items. First, Endo committed to not market an authorized generic, which
    increased Impax’s projected profits by $24.5 million. See King Drug Co. of
    Florence, 
    791 F.3d 388
    , 394 (3d Cir. 2015) (holding that brand manufacturer
    commitments to not market a generic drug during the 180-day exclusivity
    period are “payments” under Actavis); see also Loestrin 24 Fe Antitrust Litig.,
    814 F.3d at 549–53 (explaining that Actavis recognized that a reverse payment
    could include more than just an exchange of money). Second, Endo would
    pay Impax credits for the shrunken market the latter would inherit if, as
    expected, Endo timely executed the product hop to the reformulated Opana
    ER. The $102 million Endo ultimately paid is likely a good approximation of
    the parties’ expected value for these credits. The size of these payments is
    comparable to other cases where courts have inferred anticompetitive effect.
    See In re Wellbutrin XL Antitrust Lit. Indirect Purchaser Class, 
    868 F.3d 132
    ,
    162 (3d Cir. 2017) (holding that $233 million paid to three generic
    manufacturers is large under Actavis); Nexium, 842 F.3d at 50, 54
    5
    The Commission also considered the payments to Impax for the Parkinson’s
    research and the licenses Endo granted Impax.
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    (acknowledging jury finding that a $300–$690 million payment was large);
    accord Actavis, 570 U.S. at 145 (brand manufacturer agreed to pay three
    generic manufacturers $12 million, $60 million, and an estimated $171–270
    million over nine years).
    The Commission rejected the argument that just showing a large
    payment was enough to establish anticompetitive harm. It reasoned that
    “[e]stablishing that the payment is not otherwise justified is necessary for
    demonstrating that the payment is purchasing an exclusive right and
    preventing the risk of competition.” See also Actavis, 570 U.S. at 158 (stating
    that “a reverse payment, where large and unjustified, can bring with it the risk
    of significant anticompetitive effects” (emphasis added)).
    But the Commission correctly found no such justification. A large
    reverse payment might be justified if it represents “avoided litigation costs
    or fair value for services.” Id. at 156. That is not the case here. The FTC
    estimated the settlement saved Endo only $3 million in litigation expenses,
    an amount in the ballpark of the typical cost for litigating pharmaceutical
    patents. See Fed. Trade Comm’n, Authorized Generic Drugs:
    Short-Term Effects and Long-Term Impact 111–12 & n.27
    (2011) (estimating average costs in the $5-10 million range based on research
    from Morgan Stanley); Michael R. Herman, Note, The Stay Dilemma:
    Examining Brand and Generic Incentives for Delaying the Resolution of
    Pharmaceutical Patent Litigation, 
    111 Colum. L. Rev. 1788
    , 1795 n.41
    (2011) (noting that litigation expenses can bring the costs of generic entry to
    about $10 million). Nor did the agreement involve any services that the
    generic would provide to Endo that could otherwise justify the large
    payment. Only the services associated with the Parkinson’s collaboration
    could plausibly provide an appropriate basis for the payments. But even
    assuming that the collaboration is relevant and that the $10 million
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    Parkinson’s research agreement constituted payment for services, over $100
    million of Endo’s payment remains unjustified.
    This large and unjustified payment generated anticompetitive effects.
    The Commission explained that there “was a real threat of competition from
    Impax” snuffed out by Endo’s agreement to make the reverse payments.
    The FDA had just approved Impax’s generic, allowing it to sell the drug.
    Impax had taken steps to do so, even though its market entry would be “at
    risk” of infringement liability. Endo’s known product-hop plans increased
    Impax’s incentive to quickly enter the market. The Commission thus had
    substantial evidence to conclude that the reverse payments replaced the
    “possibility of competition with the certainty of none.”
    Impax argues that the Commission needed to do more at this first
    stage of the rule of reason.         Its principal attack on the finding of
    anticompetitive effect is that the Commission needed to evaluate “the
    patent’s strength, which is the expected likelihood of the brand manufacturer
    winning the litigation.” Impax reasons that if it was highly likely that Endo
    would win the patent suit, then the reverse payment was not anticompetitive
    because it allowed the generic to enter the market before the patent expired.
    We disagree that Actavis requires the Commission to assess the likely
    outcome of the patent case in order to find anticompetitive effects. The fact
    that generic competition was possible, and that Endo was willing to pay a
    large amount to prevent that risk, is enough to infer anticompetitive effect.
    Actavis, 570 U.S. at 157. In fact, Actavis squarely rejected Impax’s argument:
    “[T]he size of the unexplained reverse payment can provide a workable
    surrogate for a patent’s weakness, all without forcing a court to conduct a
    detailed exploration of the validity of the patent itself.” Id. at 158; see also id.
    at 157 (“[I]t is normally not necessary to litigate patent validity to answer the
    antitrust question.”); id. at 158 (reiterating that a court can assess the
    15
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    anticompetitiveness of a reverse payment “without litigating the validity of
    the patent”); id. at 159 (stating yet again that the Commission need not
    “litigate the patent’s validity” to establish anticompetitive effects). The idea
    is that a large reverse payment “itself would normally suggest that the
    patentee has serious doubts about the patent’s survival.” Id. at 157; see also
    Hovenkamp, supra, § 16.01[D] (explaining that a sizeable reverse payment
    “raise[s] a strong inference that that the parties believed ex ante that there
    was a significant chance that the patent was invalid”).
    Consider this settlement. If the parties thought Endo was highly likely
    to win the infringement suit, then Impax would have been happy with a deal
    giving it nothing more than entry months in advance of the likely-valid
    patent’s expiration. Cf. In re Cipro Cases I & II, 
    348 P.3d 845
    , 865 (Cal. 2015)
    (noting that a settlement postponing market entry, but not accompanied by a
    reverse payment, would be a “fair approximation” of the strength of the
    patent suit). Reverse payments potentially worth nine figures would have
    been a windfall. The need to add that substantial enticement indicates that
    at least some portion of that payment is “for exclusion beyond the point that
    would have resulted, on average, from simply litigating the case to its
    conclusion.” Id. at 867; see also In re Aggrenox Antitrust Lit., 
    94 F. Supp. 3d 224
    , 240–41 (D. Conn. 2015) (explaining that a plaintiff need not prove that
    the patent was weak because a “large and unjustified reverse-payment” can
    show that the parties perceived weakness with the patent that would have
    made earlier entry likely).    “And that fact, in turn, suggests that the
    payment’s objective is to maintain supracompetitive prices to be shared
    among the patentee and the challenger rather than face what might have been
    a competitive market—the very anticompetitive consequence that underlies
    16
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    the claim of antitrust unlawfulness.” Actavis, 570 U.S. at 157 (emphasis
    added). 6
    Impax also argues that the settlement does not look anticompetitive in
    hindsight. After all, since the settlement Endo has obtained more patents for
    Opana ER and proven their validity in court. On top of that, the product hop
    ended up failing once Endo had to take reformulated Opana ER off the
    market due to safety concerns. So Impax’s generic is now the only version of
    Opana ER on the market.
    But it is a basic antitrust principle that the impact of an agreement on
    competition is assessed as of “the time it was adopted.” See Polk Bros. v.
    Forest City Enters., 
    776 F.2d 185
    , 189 (7th Cir. 1985) (Easterbrook, J.); see also
    FTC & DOJ, Antitrust Guidelines for Collaborations
    Among Competitors § 2.4 (2000) (stating that the agencies “assess the
    competitive effects of a relevant agreement as of the time of possible harm to
    competition”). That approach also makes sense in reverse payment cases.
    Valley Drug Co. v. Geneva Pharm., Inc., 
    344 F.3d 1294
    , 1306 (11th Cir. 2003)
    (refusing to consider postagreement invalidation of patent because
    “reasonableness of agreements under the antitrust laws are to be judged at
    the time the agreements are entered into”); Cipro, 348 P.3d at 870 (“Just as
    later invalidation of a patent does not prove an agreement when made was
    anticompetitive, later evidence of validity will not automatically demonstrate
    an agreement was procompetitive.”); 12 Phillip E. Areeda &
    Herbert Hovenkamp, Antitrust Law ¶ 2046e1, at 399 (4th ed.
    6
    In addition to crediting these economic implications of a large reverse payment,
    the Supreme Court recognized the difficulty of trying a patent case within an antitrust case.
    Actavis, 570 U.S. at 157 (discussing the Eleventh Circuit’s concern with “litigat[ing] patent
    validity” in an antitrust case, but explaining that is not needed for antitrust scrutiny). An
    Eleventh Circuit colleague apparently familiar with Cajun cuisine called this the
    “turducken” problem. Watson, 
    677 F.3d at 1315
    .
    17
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    2019) (explaining that the “reasonableness of a patent settlement agreement
    cannot be made to depend on an ex post determination” of validity or
    infringement).
    So the focus is on the following facts as they existed when the parties
    adopted the settlement. Endo agreed to make large payments to the company
    that was allegedly infringing its patents. In exchange, Impax agreed to delay
    entry of its generic drug until two-and-a-half years after the FDA approved
    the drug. Neither the saved costs of forgoing a trial nor any services Endo
    received justified these payments.           Substantial evidence supports the
    Commissions’ finding that the reverse payment settlement threatened
    competition.
    B.
    The next rule-of-reason question is whether Impax can show
    procompetitive benefits. Am. Express, 
    138 S. Ct. at 2284
    . The Commission
    concluded it could not.          Although the ALJ had recognized that the
    settlement’s     license   and    covenant-not-to-sue     provisions   benefited
    competition, the Commission concluded that these procompetitive effects
    did not flow from the challenged restraint—the reverse payments
    themselves. As a result, the Commission did not treat Impax’s ability to
    enter the market nine months before the patents expired, and the protection
    Impax secured against other patents Endo might obtain, as benefits to be
    weighed against the anticompetitive effects of the reverse payments. After
    the Commission concluded that the reverse payments lacked any
    procompetitive benefits, it followed that they “constitute[d] an unreasonable
    restraint of trade.”
    The parties and amici vigorously contest the Commission’s finding of
    “no nexus” between the restraint and the procompetitive benefits Impax
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    asserts. That dispute turns largely on how to define the restraint. Is it limited
    to the reverse payments or does it extend to the entire settlement agreement?
    We need not resolve this question because of an alternative ruling the
    Commission made. Although the Commission found the reverse payments
    generated no procompetitive benefits, it went on to assume arguendo that
    Impax could connect the settlement’s purported procompetitive effects to
    the challenged restraint. Even if that was so, the Commission determined
    that “Impax could have obtained the proffered benefits by settling without a
    reverse payment for delayed entry—which is a practical, less restrictive
    alternative.” If we conclude that substantial evidence supported this finding
    of a less restrictive alternative, we can also assume that Impax has proven
    procompetitive benefits. So we will turn to our review of the “less restrictive
    alternative” finding.
    C.
    A restraint is unreasonable when any procompetitive benefits it
    produces “could be reasonably achieved through less anticompetitive
    means.” Am. Express, 
    138 S. Ct. at 2284
    ; see generally 11 Areeda &
    Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 1913, at 395–402; C. Scott Hemphill, Less Restrictive
    Alternatives in Antitrust Law, 
    116 Colum. L. Rev. 927
    , 937–42 (2016). The
    concept traces back to then-Circuit Judge Taft’s opinion in United States v.
    Addyston Pipe & Steel Co. Hemphill, Less Restrictive, supra, at 938 & n.53
    (citing 
    85 F. 271
    , 282 (6th Cir. 1898) (holding that a restraint of trade is
    unenforceable unless it is “ancillary to the main purpose of a lawful contract[]
    and necessary to protect the covenantee[’s] . . . enjoyment of the legitimate
    fruits of the contract” (emphasis added))). The less-restrictive-alternative
    standard applies across a range of antitrust claims and is included in model
    antitrust jury instructions. Id. at 929, 938 & n.50 (citing ABA Section of
    Antitrust Law, Model Jury Instructions in Civil
    19
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    Antitrust Cases A-10 (2005)). 7 The idea is that it is unreasonable to
    justify a restraint of trade based on a purported benefit to competition if that
    same benefit could be achieved with less damage to competition. Focusing
    on the existence of less restrictive alternatives may allow courts to avoid
    difficult balancing of anticompetitive and procompetitive effects and to
    “smoke out” anticompetitive effects or pretextual justifications for the
    restraint. Hemphill, Less Restrictive, supra, at 947–63. When a less restrictive
    alternative exists, a party’s decision to nonetheless engage in conduct “that
    harms consumers” likely results from a desire “to gain from the resulting
    consumer harm.” Id. at 968. The question, in short, is whether “the good
    [could] have been achieved equally well with less bad.” Id. at 929.
    Actavis recognizes the possibility of less restrictive alternatives to
    reverse payment settlements.              The Court noted that parties to
    pharmaceutical patent litigation “may, as in other industries, settle in other
    ways, for example, by allowing the generic manufacturer to enter the
    patentee’s market prior to the patent’s expiration, without . . . paying the
    challenger to stay out prior to that point.” 570 U.S. at 158; see also 12
    Areeda & Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 2046c2, at 381–82 (observing that
    Actavis recognizes “that there are better, less anticompetitive ways to settle
    these disputes”).
    The Commission found that Impax could have achieved just as much
    and likely more good (an entry date even earlier than 2013) without the bad
    (Endo’s agreement not to sell a competing generic during the exclusivity
    period and to pay credits to Impax for the decline of the Opana ER market
    7
    The Fifth Circuit Pattern Jury Instructions does not include circuit-specific
    antitrust instructions, but refer courts and parties to two sources, including the ABA
    Antitrust Section’s proposed instructions. Fifth Circuit Pattern Jury
    Instructions (Civil Cases) § 6 (2020).
    20
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    while Endo executed the product hop). The Commission explained that
    “[h]olding everything else equal, Impax’s acceptance of payment would
    normally be expected to result in a later entry date than what Impax would
    have accepted based on the strength of the patents alone.” To support its
    view that Impax could have entered into a settlement without reverse
    payments that would have resulted in greater generic competition, the
    Commission relied on industry practice, economic analysis, expert
    testimony, and adverse credibility findings discounting the testimony of
    Impax’s lead settlement negotiator.
    “[T]he existence of a viable less restrictive alternative is ordinarily a
    question of fact.” 11 Areeda & Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 1913b, at 398;
    accord O’Bannon v. NCAA, 
    802 F.3d 1049
    , 1074 (9th Cir. 2015) (applying
    clear-error review to district court’s finding of less restrictive alternative).
    So the substantial deference we owe the Commission’s factfinding kicks in,
    in particular on its determination that a no-payment settlement was feasible.
    Impax nonetheless tries to lodge legal objections to the finding of a less
    restrictive alternative. First, it argues that the Commission only recognized
    what it considers an equally restrictive alternative—the possibility of a
    settlement with the same entry date but no reverse payments. But the
    Commission recognized the feasibility of no-payment settlements with both
    the same 8 or an earlier entry date. Its ultimate ruling relied on an agreement
    with an earlier entry date as a less restrictive alternative: “A no-payment
    8
    Even if Impax’s entry date were the same in a no-payment settlement, the
    arrangement would be less anticompetitive than the actual agreement because it would not
    include Endo’s “payment” of not selling a generic competitor during Impax’s six-month
    exclusivity period. Thus, in a no-payment settlement, there would have been greater price
    competition during at least those six months. In any event, because the Commission’s
    ultimate finding relied on the feasibility of a no-payment settlement with an earlier entry
    date, we only consider that agreement as a less restrictive alternative.
    21
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    settlement allowing pre-2013 generic entry would have been a practical
    alternative for both Impax and Endo, but they chose instead to exchange
    sizeable payment for a later entry date.” (emphasis added). Impax does not
    dispute that an agreement with an earlier entry date would be less restrictive.
    Impax does argue that the Commission “flipped the burden of proof”
    in finding that such a less restrictive settlement was feasible. We disagree.
    The Commission concluded that there was a “strong showing” of the
    possibility of less restrictive settlement, and only then asked whether Impax
    had rebutted that evidence. That is a normal way of evaluating whether a
    plaintiff has met its burden of persuasion.
    So we turn to whether substantial evidence supports the
    Commission’s conclusion that Complaint Counsel had established a less
    restrictive alternative. First is the fact that most settlements between brand
    and generic makers do not include reverse payments. The Commission
    relied on an expert witness who analyzed industry practice and studies
    showing that from 2004-2009 “only 30 percent of the patent settlements
    filed with the FTC involved both compensation from the branded firm to the
    generic firm and restrictions on generic entry.” In recent years, reverse
    payment settlements may have become even rarer; over 80 percent of brand-
    generic settlements reached within the year following Actavis did not include
    a reverse payment.
    Impax suggests this evidence of industry practice is not probative of
    whether it had the opportunity to enter in a no-payment settlement. But
    leading scholars have recognized that other parties’ “actual experience in
    analogous situations” can help establish the feasibility or practicality of a less
    restrictive alternative. 11 Areeda & Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 1913b, at
    398; accord Hemphill, Less Restrictive, supra, at 984 (“One useful indicia of
    practicality is that the alternative has been implemented by this or other firms
    22
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    in similar circumstances.”); see also Ind. Fed’n of Dentists, 
    476 U.S. at 454
    (recognizing the FTC’s expertise about commercial practices). Showing that
    the alternative is “rooted in real commercial experience” may be especially
    compelling as the defendant often will not want to acknowledge its
    willingness to enter into an arrangement that would not have included “the
    illicit profits arising from an anticompetitive effect.” 
    Id.
     at 984–85; see also
    Kevin B. Soter, Note, Causation in Reverse Payment Antitrust Claims, 
    70 Stan. L. Rev. 1295
    , 1336 (2018) (raising concerns about rules that would
    “tell[] defendants that all they need to do to avoid liability is to insist in
    settlement talks that the only agreement they would make is an illegal one”).
    And the Commission did not rely on industry practice alone. It
    acknowledged but refused to credit the trial testimony of Impax’s chief
    negotiator, who said that Endo was “adamant about preventing pre-2013
    entry.” 9 The Commission noted that this resolute trial testimony was
    inconsistent with the witness’s prior statements that he could not remember
    discussing pre-2013 entry dates with Endo. In that earlier testimony, the
    negotiator said he could not remember if “Impax ever ‘tried to get a date
    earlier than January of 2013’” or whether “Endo ever told Impax that it
    would ‘not settle the litigation’ with an entry date before 2013.” Doubts
    about the negotiator’s newfound certainty allowed the Commission not just
    to reject his testimony but also to treat it as evidence of the possibility of pre-
    2013 entry. See Reeves v. Sanderson Plumbing Prods., Inc., 
    530 U.S. 133
    , 147
    (2000) (discussing the “general principle of evidence law that the factfinder
    is entitled to consider a party’s dishonesty about a material fact as
    ‘affirmative evidence of guilt’”). The Commission further noted that while
    9
    The Commission’s consideration of this testimony further dispels Impax’s claim
    that the Commission did not find a settlement with an earlier entry date to be a viable
    alternative.
    23
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    early on Impax had unsuccessfully sought entry dates during 2011 and even
    January 2012, a significant time gap exists between those proposed entry
    dates and the 2013 entry date in the final agreement. The professed failure
    to consider other possible 2012 entry dates thus casts doubt on the notion
    that an agreement with pre-2013 entry was unachievable. 10
    Finally, economics support the Commission’s finding that Endo
    would have entered into a settlement with an earlier entry date if it could
    have could have kept the more than $100 million it ended up paying Impax.
    Hemphill, Less Restrictive, supra, at 984 (recognizing that a plaintiff could use
    “expert testimony based on economic theory” to show a likelihood that the
    parties would have entered into a less restrictive alternative). If everything
    has a price, then those large payments were the price for Impax’s delayed
    entry. King Drug, 791 F.3d at 405 n.23; Cipro, 348 P.3d at 871. Such “fairly
    obvious” observations can show the feasibility of a less restrictive alternative.
    11 Areeda & Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 1913b, at 398; see also Ind. Fed’n of
    Dentists, 
    476 U.S. at 454
     (holding that deference is due FTC’s assessment of
    business practices).
    Three evidentiary legs—industry practice, credibility determinations
    about settlement negotiations, and economic analysis—thus supported the
    Commission’s conclusion that Endo would have agreed to a less restrictive
    settlement. 11 Areeda & Hovenkamp, supra, ¶ 1914c, at 410 (stating
    that a finding of less restrictive alternative should be based on alternatives
    “that are either quite obvious or a proven success”). As for Impax’s side of
    10
    The case-specific nature of this aspect of the FTC’s ruling undermines Impax’s
    concern that the agency’s decision would invalidate all reverse payment settlements. So
    does the FTC’s enforcement record. During the first fifteen years of this century, the
    agency challenged only 6 of the 1336 brand/generic settlements entered into during that
    period. FTC Bureau of Competition, Overview of Agreements Filed
    in FY 2016, at 4.
    24
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    things, of course it would have preferred the settlement that paid it over $100
    million. But any reluctance Impax had to agree to a no-payment settlement
    based on a “desire to share in monopoly rents” cannot undermine the
    Commission’s finding that a less restrictive settlement was viable. See
    Hemphill, Less Restrictive, supra, at 984–85; see also Soter, supra, at 1336.
    Our question is not whether the Commission could have reached a
    different result on the less-restrictive-alternative question. It is whether
    there was evidence that would allow a reasonable factfinder to conclude that
    a no-payment settlement was feasible. Ind. Fed’n of Dentists, 
    476 U.S. at 454
    ;
    see also Ripley v. Chater, 
    67 F.3d 552
    , 555 (5th Cir. 1995) (noting that
    substantial evidence can even be less than a preponderance). Because there
    was more than enough evidence to support that unanimous view of the
    Commissioners, we must uphold their view that a less restrictive alternative
    was viable.    And that means the reverse payment settlement was an
    agreement to preserve and split monopoly profits that was not necessary to
    allow generic competition before the expiration of Endo’s patent. As a result,
    Impax agreed to an unreasonable restraint of trade.
    ***
    The petition for review is DENIED.
    25