United States v. Dennis Grigsby , 712 F.3d 964 ( 2013 )


Menu:
  •                      RECOMMENDED FOR FULL-TEXT PUBLICATION
    Pursuant to Sixth Circuit I.O.P. 32.1(b)
    File Name: 13a0103p.06
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE SIXTH CIRCUIT
    _________________
    X
    Plaintiff-Appellee, -
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    -
    -
    -
    No. 11-3736
    v.
    ,
    >
    -
    Defendant-Appellant. -
    DENNIS M. GRIGSBY,
    N
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Southern District of Ohio at Columbus.
    No. 2:10-cr-105-1—Gregory L. Frost, District Judge.
    Argued: October 3, 2012
    Decided and Filed: April 11, 2013
    Before: MERRITT, McKEAGUE, and STRANCH, Circuit Judges.
    _________________
    COUNSEL
    ARGUED: Kevin M. Schad, FEDERAL PUBLIC DEFENDER’S OFFICE, Cincinnati,
    Ohio, for Appellant. Christopher K. Barnes, UNITED STATES ATTORNEY’S
    OFFICE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for Appellee. ON BRIEF: Kevin M. Schad, FEDERAL
    PUBLIC DEFENDER’S OFFICE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for Appellant. Christopher K.
    Barnes, UNITED STATES ATTORNEY’S OFFICE, Cincinnati, Ohio, for Appellee.
    STRANCH, J., delivered the opinion of the court in which, MERRITT, J., joined.
    McKEAGUE, J. (pg. 20), delivered a separate dissenting opinion.
    _________________
    OPINION
    _________________
    JANE B. STRANCH, Circuit Judge. Dennis Grigsby, an Ohio pretrial detainee
    diagnosed with paranoid schizophrenia, appeals from the district court’s order entered
    under Sell v. United States, 
    539 U.S. 166
     (2003), allowing the government to medicate
    him involuntarily in an effort to restore his mental competency so that he can be
    1
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                        Page 2
    prosecuted on bank robbery charges. Because special circumstances unique to this case
    persuade us to conclude that Grigsby’s liberty interest in avoiding involuntary
    medication outweighs the government’s interest in prosecution, we REVERSE the
    medication order and REMAND for further proceedings.
    I. PROCEDURAL HISTORY
    The government charged Grigsby with three counts of unarmed bank robbery in
    violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 2113
    (a). The robberies occurred at different banks in the greater
    Columbus, Ohio, area between January and March, 2010. The government alleged that
    Grigsby, a middle-aged person living in homeless shelters, stole approximately
    $7,482.00 from bank tellers by force, violence or intimidation. The FBI linked Grigsby
    to the robberies through eyewitness identifications and physical evidence. He was
    arrested and detained without bond pending trial.
    Grigsby’s counsel filed an unopposed motion pursuant to 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 4241
    (a)
    & 4242 requesting mental evaluations to determine if Grigsby is competent to stand trial
    and whether he was sane at the time of the offenses. The district court granted the
    motion, and Grigsby was transferred to the Metropolitan Correctional Center in New
    York (MCC-New York) for the evaluations.
    Two psychologists conducted the examinations and filed reports with the district
    court. They diagnosed Grigsby with paranoid schizophrenia and determined that he was
    not competent to stand trial. They offered contradictory findings with regard to whether
    Grigsby was sane at the time of the bank robberies. The reports stated both that
    Grigsby’s mental disease did not significantly interfere with his appreciation of the
    wrongfulness of his acts and that there was insufficient information to opine whether
    mental disease impaired Grigsby’s ability to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct.
    During a short competency hearing, neither party objected to the report findings
    or to the district court’s decision to adopt the findings. The court committed Grigsby to
    the custody of the Attorney General pursuant to 
    18 U.S.C. § 4241
    (d)(1) in November
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                         Page 3
    2010 for a period not to exceed four months to determine whether he could be restored
    to mental competency for the purpose of standing trial.
    Grigsby was evaluated at the Federal Medical Center in Butner, North Carolina
    (FMC-Butner). In March 2011, Dr. Robert C. Lucking, Staff Psychiatrist, and Dr.
    Angela Walden Weaver, Staff Psychologist, jointly filed a forensic evaluation with the
    district court. Like the staff at MCC-New York, they found that Grigsby suffers from
    paranoid schizophrenia.        Their forensic evaluation included a number of
    findings, including the following. Despite relatively normal upbringing, education, and
    employment, Grigsby stopped working due to “job burnout.” His criminal history
    included convictions in 2006 for grand theft auto, disorderly conduct, and resisting
    arrest; in 2007 for criminal trespassing; and in 2010 for resisting arrest. He served short
    jail sentences for his convictions and probation violations. Grigsby was charged with
    voyeurism and menacing by stalking, but was not convicted of those charges. He was
    in good physical health, denied illegal drug use, never received mental health treatment
    or counseling, and was not taking psychotropic medication for mental illness.
    The evaluation revealed that during interviews, Grigsby’s dress and grooming
    were appropriate for the setting, his psychomotor activity was normal, his eye contact
    was adequate, and his facial expression was responsive. He was oriented to person,
    place, time, and circumstances; he denied suicidal, homicidal, or aggressive thoughts,
    plans, or intent; and, his affect was adequate and appropriate to the content of the
    conversation. Grigsby did not have any speech or language deficits, but his conversation
    was not “linear, logical or goal directed.” While he denied hallucinations and delusions,
    he displayed substantial evidence of thought disorder in content and form including an
    extensive, but poorly organized, paranoid religious delusional system that extended to
    all major functional areas of his life. Housed in an open mental health unit, Grigsby
    followed the rules and procedures without any problem and was never segregated for
    disciplinary reasons. He did not require restraints or seclusion and did not engage in any
    conflicts with peers or staff. He socialized with his peers, but he did not volunteer to
    work or participate in any activities.
    No. 11-3736            United States v. Grigsby                                                   Page 4
    The forensic evaluators concluded that Grigsby did not understand the
    seriousness of his legal difficulty and lacked the ability to assist his lawyer during trial
    as a result of his psychotic symptoms. They also concluded that he was not capable of
    waiving his constitutional rights rationally or of testifying on his own behalf.
    Grigsby refused to take oral medication to treat his schizophrenia. Because he
    was not gravely disabled and did not present a danger to himself, others, or the safe and
    secure operation of the facility, he did not meet the criteria for involuntary medication
    under Washington v. Harper, 
    494 U.S. 210
     (1990). Consequently, the evaluators
    requested a judicial order under Sell that would authorize them to inject Grigsby
    involuntarily with a first-generation antipsychotic drug, such as haloperidol (Haldol) or
    fluphenazine, or a second-generation antipsychotic drug, risperidone, for the purpose of
    restoring him to competency. These injectable medications can cause serious side
    effects that require the administration of additional medications.1
    The evaluators opined that antipsychotic medication was substantially likely to
    render Grigsby competent to stand trial and substantially unlikely to produce side effects
    that would interfere with his ability to assist his attorney in preparing a defense. They
    estimated that medication would have to be administered involuntarily for at least four
    months to restore Grigsby’s competency. They further reported that less intrusive
    treatments, such as psychotherapy, were not likely to restore Grigsby to competency, and
    that antipsychotic medication was medically appropriate for Grigsby.
    1
    The record contains extensive information about the efficacy and side effects of these
    medications. The primary side effects are as follows.
    The first-generation antipsychotic medications, haloperidol and fluphenazine, can cause
    pseudoparkinsonism (stiffness, shuffling, tremors, slow movements, stooped posture, difficulty walking),
    akathisia (an inner sense of restlessness causing continual movement, such as rocking, moving the feet,
    and crossing and uncrossing the legs), and acute dystonic reactions (sustained excessive contraction of the
    large muscle groups of the neck, tongue, and jaw, which produce abnormal twisting postures). Long-term
    use of these drugs can cause tardive syndromes, including tardive dyskinesia (rhythmic involuntary
    movements, such as grimacing or frowning, pursing or puckering the lips, chewing or clenching the jaw,
    rolling the tongue, and blinking the eyes), tardive akathisia (the persistence of akathisia), and tardive
    dystonia (sustained muscle contractions of the face, eyes, neck, limbs, back, or trunk). The tardive
    syndromes are treated with medications, some of which have their own side effects. Tardive syndromes
    may be irreversible.
    The second-generation antipsychotic medication, risperidone, can cause significant weight gain
    and a moderate risk for the development of metabolic syndrome, which involves abdominal obesity, insulin
    resistance, high blood pressure, and serum lipid abnormalities. If not treated, this syndrome can lead to
    significant complications, such as the development of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease.
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                         Page 5
    Grigsby opposed the government’s motion seeking a judicial order. The court
    held a Sell hearing. Grigsby contended there and before this court that, even if he is
    rendered competent within four months, he will be required to remain on antipsychotic
    medication at least until he is tried, and the longer the period to trial, the greater the
    likelihood that he will develop serious side effects that will impact his ability to assist
    in his own defense—a point supported by Dr. Lucking’s statistics indicating that
    substantial numbers of patients develop these side effects. Grigsby expressed particular
    concern about developing tardive dyskinesia, which causes “grotesque involuntary
    movements,” and akathisia, which causes constant movement and an inability to remain
    still. He noted his fear that these side effects would prevent him from maintaining a
    dignified appearance before the jury and would make it extremely difficult for him to
    assist his counsel or testify on his own behalf.
    Dr. Lucking testified at the Sell hearing that Grigsby’s thought disorder is severe
    and he needs biologic treatment to restore his competency. He could not say how long
    Grigsby had been psychotic or whether he had suffered one or multiple psychotic
    episodes, but he surmised that this may have been the first psychotic episode to get
    Grigsby into trouble. While he explained the differences between types of antipsychotic
    medications and their side effects, he was not asked to specify the particular
    antipsychotic drug or dose that he would administer to Grigsby, although that
    information is contained in the forensic report.
    Dr. Lucking could not say how often he met with Grigsby or how much time he
    spent evaluating him. He discussed the positive signs of schizophrenia—delusions,
    hallucinations, cognitive disorganization, and grossly disorganized behavior—and
    testified that Grigsby presented delusions and cognitive disorganization, but not
    hallucinations or grossly disorganized behavior. He also listed the negative signs of
    schizophrenia but indicated that paranoid schizophrenics, including Grigsby, do not have
    negative symptoms. Dr. Lucking further testified that patients who are “treatment naive”
    and have positive symptoms of schizophrenia, like Grigsby, tend to respond to
    medications better than those patients who have experienced years of psychosis, show
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                         Page 6
    negative symptoms, and have had multiple medication failures. He believed that
    Grigsby would show a positive response to medication, but he acknowledged that ten to
    thirty percent of patients show little or no response and an additional thirty percent show
    only a partial response. In his opinion, a thirty percent response to psychotropic
    medication would be enough to render Grigsby competent.                  Until Grigsby’s
    schizophrenic symptoms decrease, Dr. Lucking declined to render an opinion on whether
    Grigsby can be held criminally responsible for the bank robberies.
    When asked what would happen next if Grigsby were not forcibly medicated, Dr.
    Lucking stated that Grigsby would remain psychotic, and the district court would likely
    require FMC-Butner to perform a risk assessment to determine whether he is a danger
    to people or property. If he is found to be a danger, Dr. Lucking would ask the
    government to request civil commitment of Grigsby under 
    18 U.S.C. § 4246
    . If the court
    determines that Grigsby is dangerous, he could be civilly committed to a secure federal
    mental health facility on an indefinite basis, unless the Bureau of Prisons is able to find
    a facility, such as an adult group home, that would accept him on conditional release.
    Although Grigsby did not pose a risk of harm to staff or fellow inmates at FMC-Butner,
    Dr. Lucking stated that Grigsby was not necessarily fit for release into society.
    Dr. Jeffrey Smalldon, a clinical psychologist, testified on Grigsby’s behalf. He
    agreed with Dr. Lucking that Grigsby suffers from a severe mental illness and that a
    criminal responsibility assessment cannot be completed so long as Grigsby is mentally
    incompetent. Because Dr. Smalldon is not a physician, he could not render an opinion
    on whether Grigsby should receive antipsychotic medication. He recognized that
    treatments less intrusive than forced medication are available, but mental health
    professionals widely recognize that the efficacy of such treatments may be low without
    some use of medication.
    Dr. Smalldon could not say with precision when Grigsby’s chronic mental
    disorder began, but he offered an opinion, based on reasonable psychological certainty,
    that Grigsby suffered from the same mental illness in early 2010 during the time period
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                          Page 7
    the bank robberies occurred. He expressed his belief that Grigsby could pursue a
    defense of not guilty by reason of insanity.
    Following the Sell hearing, the district court granted the government’s motion
    and ordered involuntary medication. The court stayed the order, however, and this
    interlocutory appeal followed. We have jurisdiction pursuant to the collateral order
    doctrine. See Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 177
    .
    II. ANALYSIS
    In Washington v. Harper, 
    494 U.S. 210
    , 229 (1990), the Supreme Court
    recognized that forcible injection of medication into the body of a non-consenting person
    “represents a substantial interference with that person’s liberty.” The Court held that due
    process allows the involuntary medication of a convicted, but mentally ill, prison inmate
    if medical professionals determine that the inmate is dangerous to himself or others and
    that the treatment is in the inmate’s medical interest. 
    Id. at 227
    . In a later case, the
    Court stated that the “Fourteenth Amendment affords at least as much protection to
    persons the State detains for trial” and set aside a criminal conviction where the state
    court did not make sufficient findings to permit the involuntary administration of
    antipsychotic medication to a defendant during trial. Riggins v. Nevada, 
    504 U.S. 127
    ,
    135–38 (1992).
    In Sell, the Supreme Court ruled that the Constitution allows the government to
    forcibly medicate a mentally ill criminal defendant who is not a danger to himself or
    others in order to render that defendant competent to stand trial for serious crimes.
    
    539 U.S. at 169
    . Before administering antipsychotic medication involuntarily, the
    government must prove to the district court by clear and convincing evidence that:
    (1) an important governmental interest in prosecution exists; (2) involuntary medication
    will significantly further the governmental interest, which requires proof both that
    administration of the medication is substantially likely to render the defendant competent
    to stand trial and is substantially unlikely to cause side effects that will interfere
    significantly with the defendant’s ability to assist counsel in conducting the trial defense;
    (3) involuntary medication is necessary to further the governmental interest; and
    No. 11-3736           United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 8
    (4) administration of the drugs is medically appropriate for the defendant. 
    Id.
     at 180–81;
    United States v. Green, 
    532 F.3d 538
    , 545 (6th Cir. 2008). The first Sell factor is a legal
    question that we review de novo. Green, 
    532 F.3d at 546
    . Because the remaining three
    factors involve factual findings, we review the district court’s determinations on them
    for clear error. 
    Id. at 552
    .
    Grigsby concedes that the government has an important interest in bringing him
    to trial for a serious crime like bank robbery, see Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 180
    , and we agree with
    his assessment.    There is no dispute that an important governmental interest in
    prosecution exists.
    The Supreme Court authorizes a fact-intensive inquiry, however, to determine
    whether there are any special circumstances that lessen the importance of the asserted
    governmental interest in having a trial. See id.; United States v. White, 
    620 F.3d 401
    ,
    411 (4th Cir. 2010). Grigsby contends that the potential availability of lengthy civil
    confinement coupled with the likelihood that, even if he is restored to competency, he
    will be found not guilty of the bank robberies by reason of insanity greatly tempers the
    government’s interest in prosecution.
    Indeed, the Supreme Court recognized in Sell that the “defendant’s failure to take
    drugs voluntarily . . . may mean lengthy confinement in an institution for the mentally
    ill—and that would diminish the risks that ordinarily attach to freeing without
    punishment one who has committed a serious crime.” Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 180
    . The Court
    did not suggest that civil commitment replaces prosecution; rather, the “potential for
    future confinement affects, but does not totally undermine, the strength of the need for
    prosecution. The same is true of the possibility that the defendant has already been
    confined for a significant amount of time” for which he would receive credit toward any
    sentence imposed under 
    18 U.S.C. § 3585
    (b).            
    Id.
       Sell adds a further special
    consideration that the government always has “a concomitant, constitutionally essential
    interest in assuring that the defendant’s trial is a fair one.” 
    Id.
     The Supreme Court set
    out these particular special circumstances by way of example, see 
    id.,
     and “we can
    discern no basis for believing that in fashioning this short list, the Sell Court intended
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                         Page 9
    that lower courts treat it as having exhausted all possible ‘special circumstances.’”
    White, 
    620 F.3d at
    411 n.8.
    Regarding the first Sell special circumstance that tempers the government’s
    interest in prosecution, significant evidence was presented at the Sell hearing that
    Grigsby may face a lengthy civil commitment due to his mental illness. Dr. Lucking
    testified that if Grigsby is not forcibly medicated, he will remain psychotic and, if found
    to be a danger, the medical staff at FMC-Butner will request civil commitment of
    Grigsby under the statutory procedures outlined in 
    18 U.S.C. § 4246
    . Under that statute,
    the director of FMC-Butner must certify to the district court that Grigsby, who was
    committed under 
    18 U.S.C. § 4241
    (d) for a competency determination, “is presently
    suffering from a mental disease or defect as a result of which his release would create
    a substantial risk of bodily injury to another person or serious damage to property of
    another, and that suitable arrangements for State custody and care of the person are not
    available.” If, after a hearing, the district court were to determine by clear and
    convincing evidence that Grigsby is suffering from a mental disease or defect and poses
    a substantial risk of bodily injury or serious damage to the property of another, the court
    could order Grigsby civilly committed to the custody of the Attorney General, who has
    a statutory obligation to make all reasonable efforts to convince the State of Ohio to take
    custody of Grigsby and find an appropriate placement for him. 
    18 U.S.C. § 4246
    (d). If
    such efforts fail, the Attorney General must hospitalize Grigsby in a suitable federal
    facility for the mentally ill until his “mental condition is such that . . . his conditional
    release under a prescribed regimen of medical, psychiatric, or psychological care or
    treatment would not create a substantial risk of bodily injury to another person or serious
    damage to property of another.” 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 4246
    (d)(2), 4246(e).
    On the record before us, Grigsby may be destined for lengthy civil commitment
    under § 4246. See Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 180
    . Dr. Lucking explained that Grigsby is presently
    suffering from a mental disease or defect. Although Grigsby does not pose a present
    danger to himself or others in the structured environment of FMC-Butner, Dr. Lucking
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 10
    opined that Grigsby is not necessarily fit for release into society. If Grigsby is not
    medicated involuntarily, the next step is to consider civil commitment under § 4246.
    The district court did not specifically address Dr. Lucking’s testimony regarding
    potential civil commitment under § 4246 when analyzing whether the government’s
    interest in prosecution is mitigated by the special circumstance of potential lengthy civil
    commitment. The court focused instead on whether Grigsby would be civilly committed
    if he were ultimately found to be not guilty by reason of insanity, see 
    18 U.S.C. § 4243
    ,
    found the evidence inconclusive on that point and terminated its inquiry. But Sell asks
    whether the special circumstance of potential for future civil confinement lessens the
    importance of the government’s interest in prosecution; it posits potentiality because at
    the initial stage at which this determination must be made, it cannot be definitively
    established that a defendant ultimately will be found not guilty by reason of insanity.
    That Grigsby potentially may be found not guilty by reason of insanity, even if he is
    restored to mental competency to stand trial, is a special circumstance that should have
    been fully considered in weighing the government’s interest in prosecution. See United
    States v. Stephenson, No. 1:10-CR-206, 
    2011 WL 3738967
    , at *8 (W.D. Mich.
    Aug. 23, 2011); United States v. Walton, No. 08–20599–BC, 
    2009 WL 3562507
    , *2
    (E.D. Mich. Oct. 28, 2009)(recognizing the special circumstance that a likelihood of a
    verdict of not guilty by reason of insanity would undermine the government’s interest
    in prosecution (citing United States v. Sheets, No. 3:07–CR–68, 
    2008 WL 4614330
    , at
    *3 (E.D. Tenn. Oct. 15, 2008)).
    A full consideration of the potential for civil commitment under § 4243,
    moreover, reveals that there is evidence in this record supporting a conclusion that
    Grigsby may not have appreciated the wrongfulness of his conduct during the bank
    robberies, despite other evidence indicating that Grigsby knew what he was doing was
    wrong. Dr. Lucking and Dr. Smalldon agreed that Grigsby would have to be restored
    to mental competency before a definitive determination could be made concerning his
    sanity at the time of the offenses. Nonetheless, Dr. Smalldon highlighted Grigsby’s
    severe and chronic disorder. Based on a reasonable degree of psychological certainty,
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 11
    Dr. Smalldon opined that it was highly likely Grigsby suffered from the same mental
    illness when the bank robberies occurred, making him “a candidate” for the defense of
    not guilty by reason of insanity. The district court did not allude to that portion of Dr.
    Smalldon’s testimony in its analysis. Dr. Lucking also surmised that, because Grigsby’s
    mental condition is severe, he may have experienced previous psychotic episodes, with
    this one being the first to “get him into trouble.” These comments suggest a connection
    between Grigsby’s psychotic episodes and the instant offenses.
    In sum, the Sell special circumstance—potential for lengthy civil commitment
    of Grigsby—lessens the importance of the government’s interest in prosecution because
    it reduces the risks that would normally attach if Grigsby were freed without
    punishment. The district court’s opinion focused only on the possible track toward civil
    commitment under § 4243 without giving any consideration to the second possible track
    toward civil commitment under § 4246—the track that Dr. Lucking had noted. Section
    4246 and § 4243 provide different procedures for civil commitment that may apply in
    Grigsby’s case. Both of these tracks establish a special circumstance that should have
    been examined.
    The dissent contends that the potential for civil commitment under either § 4246
    or § 4243 is “largely speculative” and Grigsby is unlikely to prevail on an insanity
    defense. Application of either § 4246 or § 4243 is a fact-specific inquiry that cannot be
    resolved definitively at this point, yet Sell directs us to consider whether the
    governmental interest in prosecution is affected by the potential for lengthy civil
    commitment. Outcomes in similar cases before other courts depended heavily on the
    specific facts in the available records.
    For example, in United States v. Gutierrez, 
    704 F.3d 442
    , 450 (5th Cir. 2013),
    the defendant did not appear to be eligible for civil commitment under federal or state
    law because he did not present a danger to himself or others while confined, he was not
    severely disabled by mental illness, and, other than making the telephonic threats at issue
    in the case, his criminal record contained no evidence of past violence. Under those
    factual circumstances, the Fifth Circuit determined that the government’s interest in
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                      Page 12
    prosecution was not diminished. 
    Id.
     By contrast, this record shows that Grigsby suffers
    from a severely disabling mental illness, and he is charged with committing serial bank
    robberies by force and intimidation. Even Dr. Lucking cautioned that Grigsby may not
    be fit for return to society. These factual circumstances distinguish our case from
    Gutierrez.
    In United States v. Nicklas, 
    623 F.3d 1175
    , 1178–79 (8th Cir. 2010), the
    defendant argued that forcibly medicating him would place him in the same position that
    he currently faced—civil commitment in a medical facility if he were found to be a
    danger to others or their property. Such a result was not certain, the Eighth Circuit said,
    because Nicklas confirmed that he would not present an insanity defense if brought to
    trial and thus, the government’s interest in prosecution was not ameliorated. 
    Id.
    Grigsby, on the other hand, presented evidence at the Sell hearing that he likely was not
    sane at the time he committed the alleged offenses and that he may have a basis for an
    insanity defense. In United States v. Evans, 
    404 F.3d 227
    , 239 (4th Cir. 2005), proof
    was offered that the defendant did not meet the criteria for civil commitment under
    § 4246. No similar proof was offered here. To the contrary, the government’s witness
    suggested that the next step for Grigsby is a § 4246 evaluation. See also United States
    v. Gomes, 
    387 F.3d 157
    , 161 (2d Cir. 2004) (noting available psychiatric diagnosis
    related to initial competency determination and not the risk Gomes might pose to other
    persons or property, to be evaluated under § 4246). Cf. United States v. Bradley, 
    417 F.3d 1107
    , 1116–17 (10th Cir. 2005) (summarily rejecting potential for civil
    commitment under § 4246 where treating physician reported defendant was not a threat
    to self or others while in custody, despite acknowledgment that physician had not yet
    fully evaluated under § 4246 whether defendant posed any risk to persons or property
    outside the facility).
    These cases do not stand for a blanket rule that, short of certain proof that civil
    commitment will occur, the government’s interest in prosecution is not diminished.
    Instead, these cases point to the requirement in Sell that courts “must consider the facts
    of the individual case in evaluating the Government’s interest in prosecution.” Sell,
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                        Page 13
    
    539 U.S. at 180
    . And this takes us back to the Supreme Court’s listing of the special
    circumstances that may lessen the importance of that interest and its articulation of one
    as the “potential” for future civil confinement. The Supreme Court could have required
    a certainty of future civil confinement. It did not; so we should not.
    Grigsby has not yet been fully evaluated for civil commitment under the § 4246
    standard, but Dr. Lucking testified at the Sell hearing that a risk assessment under § 4246
    is the likely next step if Grigsby is not forcibly medicated. Dr. Lucking’s expert opinion
    that Grigsby may not be fit for release into society indicates that, after a risk assessment,
    the government may be able to carry its burden to prove that Grigsby presents a
    “substantial risk of bodily injury to another person or serious damage to property of
    another” under § 4246, even if he has been well-behaved and non-violent within the
    structured detention of FMC-Butner. In addition, Dr. Smalldon testified to a reasonable
    degree of psychological certainty that Grigsby may be able to raise an insanity defense.
    See Thompson v. Bell, 
    580 F.3d 423
    , 440 (6th Cir. 2009) (referring to Sell as a signal
    “that it may be unconstitutional to medicate a prisoner already destined for a lengthy
    confinement just to render the prisoner competent for legal proceedings”).
    In addition to considering whether civil commitment is a potential outcome, we
    must also examine whether the length of Grigsby’s confinement while the government
    attempts to restore his competency and prosecute him may approximate the length of any
    sentence of imprisonment he ultimately may receive if convicted. See Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 180
    . This analysis required by the Supreme Court is entirely separate and distinct from
    determining at the outset whether the statutory maximum penalty for the crime
    objectively establishes the seriousness of the crime and the government’s interest in
    prosecuting it, which is not in dispute here. See Green, 
    532 F.3d at 546
    .
    The government posits that, if convicted, Grigsby would likely face an advisory
    guideline range of 57 to 71 months in prison. The government estimated this range as
    follows: Grigsby’s base offense level would be 20 under USSG § 2B3.1(a); two levels
    would likely be added under § 2B3.1(b)(1) because money was taken during the
    robberies; and three grouping levels would likely be added under USSG § 3D1.1,
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 14
    §3D1.2(d), and § 3D1.4(a) for a total offense level of 25. Even assuming Grigsby falls
    within criminal history category I, the advisory guideline range would be 57 to 71
    months.
    The government’s analysis is instructive because government attorneys routinely
    estimate potential guideline ranges and sentences in the course of negotiating plea
    agreements with defense counsel, sometimes resulting in a plea agreement for a specific
    sentence or sentencing range that is binding on the sentencing court. Fed. R. Crim. P.
    11(c)(1)(C). Certainly, a final guideline calculation cannot be known until a district
    court announces it. But we give significant weight to the government’s estimate of
    sentence length because the government advances a sentence of imprisonment as the
    core reason why it wants to prosecute Grigsby. The government stands in the best
    position to elucidate its prosecutorial interests. See White, 
    620 F.3d at
    415–18
    (examining likely sentence mentally ill defendant would receive under guidelines).
    To consider only the statutory maximum penalty when conducting this portion
    of the Sell analysis would not be consistent with Supreme Court precedent after United
    States v. Booker, 
    543 U.S. 220
     (2005). Sentencing is based on the advisory Sentencing
    Guidelines and the sentencing factors under 
    18 U.S.C. § 3553
    (a). In the ordinary case,
    appellate courts apply a presumption of reasonableness to a sentence within a properly
    calculated advisory guideline range that is imposed and explained in accordance with the
    § 3553(a) factors. See Rita v. United States, 
    551 U.S. 338
    , 347 (2007); United States v.
    Vonner, 
    516 F.3d 382
    , 389 (6th Cir. 2008) (en banc). Courts evaluate whether a
    particularly harsh or lenient sentence outside the advisory guideline range is reasonable
    in light of the § 3553(a) factors. See Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 46–47 (2007).
    No facts in this record would support the reasonableness of a 240-month sentence upon
    conviction, which would constitute an upward variance of 169 months from the top of
    the government’s proposed advisory guideline range of 57 to 71 months. See United
    States v. Aleo, 
    681 F.3d 290
    , 293 (6th Cir. 2012) (reversing and remanding for
    resentencing because district court did not justify under the § 3553(a) factors a statutory
    maximum sentence of 720 months where the advisory guideline range was 235 to 293
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 15
    months). We see no principled reason to ignore all applicable sentencing law except for
    the statutory maximum penalty when considering under Sell whether the likelihood of
    civil commitment will approximate the criminal sentence ultimately imposed on
    conviction and thus mitigate the government’s interest in prosecution. See White,
    
    620 F.3d at
    415–18.
    The estimated guideline calculation for Grigsby’s case should also take into
    account, however, the literature Dr. Lucking reviewed in the forensic evaluation
    documenting that some defendants who are restored to competency by medication
    ultimately plead guilty to the charges against them through plea negotiation. If we
    consider that Grigsby might enter a timely guilty plea if restored to competency, thereby
    earning a three-level reduction for acceptance of responsibility under USSG § 3E1.1, his
    anticipated advisory guideline range would drop to 41 to 51 months.
    To compare the length of Grigsby’s potential incarceration upon conviction with
    the length of any potential civil commitment, we must further take into account how long
    Grigsby would have to be medicated involuntarily in order to reach competency to stand
    trial. The forensic evaluation summarized psychiatric studies showing that seventy
    percent of first-episode patients often can be restored to competency within three to four
    months and eighty-three percent by the end of one year. The forensic evaluation report
    suggested Grigsby would have to be medicated at least four months. In Dr. Lucking’s
    expert opinion, Grigsby is severely disabled by mental disease and he probably
    experienced other psychotic episodes before the one that led to his arrest in this case.
    In light of this uncontradicted information and using the psychiatric literature in the
    record as our guide, we conclude that Grigsby may well require involuntary medication
    for a period of at least four and up to twelve months.
    Grigsby has been held in federal detention on the bank robbery charges since
    July 2010, a period of 33 months. If his competency can be restored through forced
    medication within four to twelve months, and if we take into account the time that will
    be necessary to complete the prosecution (which could include further delays caused by
    one or more relapses into incompetency), Grigsby may remain in federal detention for
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                         Page 16
    a period roughly equivalent to the length of any prison sentence he may ultimately
    receive and for which the Bureau of Prisons is required to give him sentencing credit.
    See 
    18 U.S.C. § 3585
    (b)(1)(“A defendant shall be given credit toward the service of a
    term of imprisonment for any time he has spent in official detention prior to the date the
    sentence commences . . . as a result of the offense for which the sentence was imposed”).
    Consequently, these additional sentencing considerations also mitigate the government’s
    interest in prosecution, especially in light of the Supreme Court’s comment that
    instances of involuntary medication “may be rare.” Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 180
    .
    Finally, the Supreme Court identified one other special circumstance that lessens
    the government’s interest in prosecution—the government’s “concomitant,
    constitutionally essential interest in assuring that the defendant’s trial is a fair one.” 
    Id.
    Forcibly medicating a defendant with psychotropic drugs can burden fair trial rights by
    affecting the defendant’s capacity to comprehend and react to trial events, consult with
    counsel, testify, and control his behavior in front of the jury. See e.g., Riggins, 
    504 U.S. at
    137–38. In Sell the Supreme Court reaffirmed these concerns, observing that
    “[w]hether a particular drug will tend to sedate a defendant, interfere with
    communication with counsel, prevent rapid reaction to trial developments, or diminish
    the ability to express emotions are matters important in determining the permissibility
    of medication to restore competence.” 
    Id. at 185
    .
    This aspect of the first Sell factor dovetails into the remaining three factors:
    whether antipsychotic medication is substantially likely to render Grigsby competent to
    stand trial and is substantially unlikely to cause side effects that will interfere
    significantly with his ability to assist defense counsel; whether involuntary medication
    is necessary to further the government’s interest; and whether involuntary medication
    is medically appropriate for Grigsby. See 
    id. at 181
    . Grigsby raises trial-related
    concerns about tardive dyskinesia, which causes “grotesque involuntary movements,”
    and akathisia, which causes constant movement and an inability to remain still. Should
    such uncontrollable physical side effects develop, he believes they would impair his
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 17
    ability to maintain a dignified appearance before the jury and would make it difficult for
    him to assist his counsel or testify in his own behalf.
    The record indicates that psychotropic medication is generally effective in
    restoring competency, although Dr. Lucking testified that up to thirty percent of patients
    treated with haloperidol show no response to the drug and another thirty percent show
    only a partial response. When he reviewed six factors used to determine the likelihood
    of an individual’s positive response to the medication, only two of those factors
    suggested that Grigsby would show a positive response to medication. It is undisputed,
    based on Dr. Lucking’s testimony, that thirty percent of individuals treated with
    haloperidol develop pseudoparkinsonism, twenty to thirty percent develop akathisia, and
    two to ten percent develop acute dystonic reactions. The irreversible condition of tardive
    dyskinesia develops in eighteen to forty percent of medicated individuals.
    Even assuming the district court’s findings are correct that medication is
    substantially likely to render Grigsby competent to stand trial and that such drugs are
    medically appropriate for him, the record lacks clear and convincing evidence that
    medication is substantially unlikely to cause side effects that will interfere significantly
    with Grigsby’s ability to assist in his own defense at trial and that involuntary
    medication is necessary to further the government’s lessened interest in prosecution. To
    this extent the district court’s factual findings are clearly erroneous. See Green, 
    532 F.3d at 552
    .
    The dissent points to Dr. Lucking’s testimony that other medications will be used
    to alleviate the side effects of psychotropic medication and that Dr. Lucking would
    “cease medicating Grigsby if irreversible side effects occurred.” But by that time, it
    would be too late for Grigsby. The side effects would be both evident and irreversible,
    psychiatric medication would be stopped, and Grigsby probably would not be returned
    to competency to stand trial after all.
    Dr. Lucking did explain that certain drugs may help relieve temporary side
    effects, but not the irreversible ones, and those drugs have their own side effects,
    requiring additional medications. And there is no proof that any potentially temporary
    No. 11-3736        United States v. Grigsby                                      Page 18
    side effects would be caught and treated early enough to avoid permanency or lasting
    damage or that Grigsby could tell his counsel about any untreated side effects so that his
    concerns could be brought to the attention of the court. Psychiatric professionals have
    already determined that Grigsby is too mentally ill to assist in his own defense. The
    record reveals no basis for the assumption that Grigsby’s defense attorney, located
    hundreds of miles from his mentally ill client, would know during the period for
    restoring competency whether Grigsby had developed side effects and whether the
    attending physicians had taken steps to address those side effects in a timely and proper
    manner.
    The Supreme Court counsels us to ask: “Has the Government, in light of the
    efficacy, the side effects, the possible alternatives, and the medical appropriateness of
    a particular course of antipsychotic drug treatment, shown a need for that treatment
    sufficiently important to overcome the individual’s protected interest in refusing it?”
    Sell, 
    539 U.S. at 183
    . On this record, our answer to the question is “no.” See Sell,
    
    539 U.S. at 180, 183
    ; White, 
    620 F.3d at 419
    .
    III. CONCLUSION
    Each involuntary medication case presents a court with the challenging task of
    balancing the defendant’s fundamental constitutional right to liberty against the
    government’s important interest in prosecution. A fact-intensive inquiry into the
    circumstances of each defendant is necessary to determine where to strike that balance.
    That inquiry entails recognition of the difficulties inherent in dealing with mentally
    disabled defendants and the problems likely to be encountered when the balance favors
    medication—and when it does not. It cannot be ignored that when either side wins its
    position, that success is at best a mixed blessing. For a defendant, success in avoiding
    forced medication means he does not receive potentially harmful—but also potentially
    beneficial—medication and the cost of that avoidance may be lengthy or even lifetime
    involuntary commitment to an institution for the mentally ill. For the government,
    obtaining medication by force does not guarantee: return to competency for trial; or if
    competency is obtained, that prosecution will be successful; or if prosecution is
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                        Page 19
    successful, that post-incarceration problems will not result in risks to society that civil
    commitment might have avoided. It is not an exaggeration to suggest that there is no
    adequate solution to the difficulties presented by these cases. Perhaps it is for this reason
    that the Supreme Court created such a fact-intensive, balancing-of-interests standard.
    In executing the hard task of applying that standard to this case, we are mindful
    that forcing psychotropic medication on a pretrial detainee “is impermissible absent a
    finding of overriding justification and a determination of medical appropriateness.”
    Riggins, 
    504 U.S. at 135
    . Reviewing the specific facts here in light of the standard
    articulated in Sell, we find that the government did not establish that its prosecutorial
    interests are sufficiently exceptional to warrant the extraordinary use of forcible
    medication to render Grigsby competent to stand trial.
    Accordingly, we REVERSE the district court’s order permitting involuntary
    medication and we REMAND the case for further proceedings consistent with this
    opinion. On remand, we envision use of the procedures outlined in 
    18 U.S.C. § 4246
     to
    determine whether civil commitment is appropriate for Grigsby.
    No. 11-3736         United States v. Grigsby                                       Page 20
    _________________
    DISSENT
    _________________
    McKEAGUE. Circuit Judge, dissenting. The majority rightfully concludes that
    the government has an important interest in prosecuting Grigsby, but then reverses the
    district court’s decision by concluding the government’s important interest is
    undermined by the unique special circumstances of this case. I disagree with the
    majority’s special-circumstances analysis for a number of reasons. Based upon the
    record before us, involuntary civil commitment under § 4246 is largely speculative, and
    though Grigsby might be able to pursue an insanity defense, he is unlikely to prevail on
    that defense. In addition, because of the sheer number of assumptions in the majority’s
    analysis, I disagree that Grigsby’s term of pretrial confinement is likely to exceed any
    sentence he would ultimately receive. With regard to Grigsby’s fair-trial rights, the
    majority’s analysis is again largely speculative—we cannot know what side effects, if
    any, Grigsby will encounter until he is medicated. Further, Dr. Lucking testified that he
    would attend to treatable side effects and cease medicating Grigsby if irreversible side
    effects occurred. Because the government has an important interest in prosecuting the
    defendant, because of the speculative nature of the special circumstances considered by
    the majority, and because I find no error in the district court’s consideration of the other
    Sell factors, I would affirm. I therefore respectfully dissent.