United States v. Marquete Murray , 897 F.3d 298 ( 2018 )


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  • United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued December 15, 2017               Decided July 31, 2018
    No. 17-3006
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    MARQUETE MURRAY, ALSO KNOWN AS TWIN, ALSO KNOWN AS
    QUETE,
    APPELLANT
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:16-cr-00121-8)
    Gregory Stuart Smith, appointed by the court, argued the
    cause and filed the briefs for appellant.
    Eric S. Nguyen, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the cause
    for appellee. With him on the brief was Elizabeth Trosman,
    Assistant U.S. Attorney.
    Before: GARLAND, Chief Judge, and SRINIVASAN and
    MILLETT, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Chief Judge GARLAND.
    2
    GARLAND, Chief Judge: Appellant Marquete Murray
    challenges the sentence that the district court imposed following
    his guilty plea. Murray’s appeal presents two questions:
    whether the government’s actions following entry of the plea
    breached its plea agreement with Murray, and whether Murray’s
    counsel provided constitutionally ineffective assistance in
    relation to that claimed breach.
    We reject the government’s contention that it did not breach
    its plea agreement with Murray. Nevertheless, because
    Murray’s counsel failed to object, we can grant Murray relief on
    this ground only if the government’s breach was plain -- that is,
    clear or obvious -- which it was not. That, however, does not
    end this matter. Because we also reject the government’s
    contention that Murray has no colorable claim of ineffective
    assistance of counsel, we remand the case to the district court for
    further proceedings.
    I
    The root problem in this case is that Murray was sentenced
    based on a U.S. Sentencing Guidelines range that deviated from
    the estimated range set out in his plea agreement -- despite the
    fact that nothing unanticipated by the agreement transpired
    between the plea and sentencing. This is how that came to pass.
    On July 14, 2016, a federal grand jury indicted Murray on
    a narcotics conspiracy charge, as well as on a second charge of
    unlawfully using a communication facility to facilitate drug
    crimes. On October 16, with advice of counsel, Murray entered
    into a plea agreement with the Office of the U.S. Attorney for
    the District of Columbia, pursuant to which he would plead
    guilty in federal court to the conspiracy count, and would also
    plead guilty to two other charges in two unrelated cases in the
    Superior Court of the District of Columbia: misdemeanor
    3
    assault and carrying a pistol without a license.1 In exchange, the
    government agreed, among other things, to dismiss the
    remaining count in the federal indictment, the remaining count
    in the misdemeanor assault case, and a third D.C. Superior Court
    case in its entirety.
    The plea agreement included an agreed-upon “Estimated
    Guidelines Range,” meant “to assist the Court in determining the
    appropriate sentence.” Plea Agreement ¶ 4 (J.A. 24). The
    parties calculated Murray’s initial base offense level as 20
    because the conspiracy offense involved approximately 30
    grams of heroin and 45 grams of PCP. See U.S.S.G.
    § 2D1.1(c)(10) & cmt. 8(B). The parties then applied a three-
    level reduction that lowered Murray’s offense level to 17 based
    on his acceptance of responsibility. See 
    id. § 3E1.1.
    The plea
    agreement also stated the parties’ agreement that Murray’s
    estimated criminal history category was Category I:
    Based upon the information now available to [the U.S.
    Attorney’s] Office, your client [Murray] has no
    criminal convictions.
    Accordingly, your client is estimated to have 0
    criminal history points and your client’s Criminal
    History Category is estimated to be I. Your client
    acknowledges that if additional convictions are
    discovered during the pre-sentence investigation by the
    United States Probation Office, your client’s criminal
    history points may increase.
    1
    The U.S. Attorney for the District of Columbia acts as chief
    prosecutor in both the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia
    and in the Superior Court of the District of Columbia. See United
    States v. Weathers, 
    186 F.3d 948
    , 949 n.1 (D.C. Cir. 1999).
    4
    Plea Agreement ¶ 4.B (J.A. 26). Based on the estimated offense
    level and criminal history category, the parties agreed that
    Murray’s Estimated Guidelines Range was 24 to 30 months’
    incarceration. 
    Id. ¶ 4.C
    (J.A. 26).
    The agreement further stated that Murray understood the
    Estimated Guidelines Range was not binding on the United
    States Probation Office or the sentencing court. And it warned
    that any post-agreement misconduct that Murray committed
    could increase his base offense level or justify an upward
    departure. 
    Id. (J.A. 27).
    Finally, although the parties agreed that a sentence within
    the Estimated Guidelines Range “would constitute a reasonable
    sentence in light of all of the factors set forth in 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a),” both parties “reserve[d] the right to seek a sentence”
    outside “the Estimated Guidelines Range based on § 3553(a)
    factors.” 
    Id. ¶ 5
    (J.A. 27).2
    2
    After calculating the applicable Guidelines range, “the court
    must then consider the arguments of the parties and the seven
    sentencing factors set forth in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) to determine the
    appropriate sentence, including whether a variance from the advisory
    Guidelines range is warranted.” United States v. Williams, 
    773 F.3d 98
    , 108 (D.C. Cir. 2014). The § 3553(a) factors include the (now
    advisory) range established by the Guidelines. See 18 U.S.C.
    § 3553(a)(4). They also include such factors as “the nature and
    circumstances of the offense and the history and characteristics of the
    defendant,” 
    id. § 3553(a)(1);
    the need for the sentence to “reflect the
    seriousness of the offense,” to “promote respect for the law,” to
    “provide just punishment,” to “afford adequate deterrence,” to “protect
    the public,” and to “provide the defendant with needed educational or
    vocational training,” 
    id. § 3553(a)(2);
    and the need to “avoid
    unwarranted sentence disparities” among similarly situated
    defendants, 
    id. § 3553(a)(6).
    See United States v. Simpson, 
    430 F.3d 1177
    , 1186 (D.C. Cir. 2005).
    5
    On October 25, 2016, Murray pled guilty in federal court
    pursuant to the plea agreement. Three weeks later, on
    November 17, he entered the two Superior Court pleas required
    by the plea agreement.
    On December 1, 2016, the Probation Office released a
    Presentence Investigation Report (PSR) regarding Murray.3 The
    PSR concluded, as had the plea agreement, that Murray’s
    offense level was 17. PSR ¶¶ 65, 103. But in calculating
    Murray’s criminal history category, it did not conclude -- as the
    agreement did -- that Murray’s criminal history score was 0.
    Instead, it gave Murray a score of 2 because “the defendant pled
    guilty to two District of Columbia Superior Court cases
    following his guilty plea” in federal court. PSR ¶ 109.
    The two Superior Court pleas were the same pleas that
    Murray’s plea agreement had required. With some exceptions
    not relevant here, when a defendant has previously pled guilty
    but not yet been sentenced, one point is added to his criminal
    history for each such plea. See U.S.S.G. §§ 4A1.1(c),
    4A1.2(a)(4). The Probation Office therefore concluded that
    Murray’s criminal history score was in fact 2 -- not 0 as in the
    plea agreement -- which placed him in Criminal History
    Category II, rather than in Category I as contemplated by the
    agreement. As a result, the Probation Office calculated a final
    sentencing range of 27 to 33 months’ incarceration, PSR ¶ 103,
    rather than the agreement’s Estimated Guidelines Range of 24
    to 30 months. See U.S.S.G. ch. 5, pt. A (sentencing table). Both
    3
    The PSR was filed under seal. “Insofar as we refer to
    information derived from the PSR, it is unsealed to the limited extent
    referenced in this opinion, although the full document shall remain
    physically withheld from public review.” United States v. Reeves, 
    586 F.3d 20
    , 22 n.1 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    6
    government and defense counsel reviewed the PSR; neither
    noted any material inaccuracies. See PSR addendum.
    The PSR also identified “the defendant’s youth” -- he was
    24 years old at the time of sentencing -- as a “factor that may
    warrant a [downward] variance from the applicable guideline[s]
    range.” PSR ¶ 130. Subsequently, the Probation Office
    recommended a 21-month sentence to the court. See Sentencing
    Hearing Tr. 10 (J.A. 80).
    Following the Probation Office’s report, each party
    submitted a sentencing memorandum to the court. The
    government affirmed the PSR’s Sentencing Guidelines range of
    27 to 33 months. It did not mention the plea agreement’s
    estimated range of 24 to 30 months, nor did it call to the court’s
    attention the fact that the difference in ranges was due to
    counting, for criminal history purposes, the Superior Court
    convictions resulting from the plea agreement. Finally, based on
    the § 3553(a) factors, the government asked the court to
    sentence Murray to the top of the (new) range: 33 months. See
    Government’s Mem. in Aid of Sentencing 8-13 (J.A. 42-47).
    Murray’s counsel submitted a short sentencing
    memorandum as well. Like the government’s memorandum,
    Murray’s did not call the court’s attention to the difference
    between the plea agreement’s Estimated Guidelines Range and
    the PSR calculation. Instead, defense counsel merely cited
    Murray’s youth and need for further education and vocational
    training as support for a variance below the sentencing range --
    specifically, a sentence of 24 months. Def. Murray’s Sentencing
    Mem. 1-2 (J.A. 48-49).
    The sentencing hearing took place on January 6, 2017. The
    court began by explaining its Sentencing Guidelines
    calculations. It noted that, at the time of the plea, Murray had no
    7
    previous criminal convictions but had since pled guilty in two
    D.C. Superior Court cases. Sentencing Hearing Tr. 6 (J.A. 76).
    Based on those two pleas, the court calculated that Murray had
    two criminal history points, which put him in Criminal History
    Category II. 
    Id. With an
    offense level of 17 and a Category II
    criminal history, the court (like the PSR) calculated the
    Sentencing Guidelines range as 27 to 33 months. 
    Id. When asked
    whether that range was correct, both the government and
    Murray’s attorney agreed that it was. 
    Id. at 6-7
    (J.A. 76-77).
    After noting the Probation Office’s recommendation of 21
    months’ imprisonment, the court invited the government to
    speak. Following an extended allocution, the government
    repeated the 33-month recommendation it had presented in its
    sentencing memorandum.
    Murray’s counsel then addressed the court. He did not note
    that the new sentencing range exceeded the plea agreement’s
    Estimated Guidelines Range, nor did he object to the
    government’s recommendation on the ground that it was above
    that range. Instead, counsel rested on his previously filed
    memorandum requesting a downward variance of 24 months’
    incarceration. Sentencing Hearing Tr. 32 (J.A. 102). Having
    heard from both parties, the court accepted the government’s
    recommendation and sentenced Murray to 33 months in prison.
    Following the sentencing, Murray’s lawyer moved to
    withdraw. The lawyer explained that, in a post-sentencing
    meeting, Murray “became upset at Counsel’s low-key approach
    at the Sentencing Hearing, and expressed his displeasure.” Mot.
    for Withdrawal of Counsel 2 (J.A. 67). Appellate counsel was
    8
    contacted on January 25, 2017, and Murray filed this appeal the
    same day.4
    Murray raises two contentions on appeal. First, he asserts
    that the government breached the plea agreement between the
    parties, and that he is therefore entitled to resentencing. Second,
    he argues that his trial counsel provided constitutionally
    ineffective assistance in relation to that breach.
    II
    “In interpreting the terms of a plea agreement, we look to
    principles of contract law. In evaluating whether a plea
    agreement has been breached, we look to the reasonable
    understanding of the parties and construe any ambiguities in the
    agreement against the government.” United States v. Henry, 
    758 F.3d 427
    , 431 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (citations omitted). But because
    Murray raises his claim of breach for the first time on appeal, we
    can review it only for plain error. See Puckett v. United States,
    
    556 U.S. 129
    , 134 (2009); United States v. King-Gore, 
    875 F.3d 1141
    , 1144 (D.C. Cir. 2017). Meeting that standard requires
    satisfying four prongs: “First, there must be an error or defect
    . . . . Second, the legal error must be clear or obvious, rather
    than subject to reasonable dispute. Third, the error must have
    affected the appellant’s substantial rights, which in the ordinary
    case means he must demonstrate that it affected the outcome of
    the district court proceedings. Fourth and finally, . . . the error
    [must] seriously affect[] the fairness, integrity or public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” 
    Puckett, 556 U.S. at 135
    (citations and internal quotation marks omitted).
    4
    In its brief, the government challenged Murray’s appeal as
    untimely, but it has since waived that challenge by letter to the court.
    9
    Murray contends that the government breached the plea
    agreement in two ways. First, he says that the parties
    understood that the Estimated Guidelines Range would be the
    actual Guidelines range at sentencing, unless he committed
    further criminal conduct or unless the government discovered
    prior convictions that it did not know about. Because the
    conduct underlying the Superior Court pleas occurred prior to
    the agreement and was known to the government, Murray
    maintains that both parties understood those pleas would not
    count towards his criminal history category. As a consequence,
    he concludes, the government breached the agreement by failing
    to schedule the pleas to take place after his federal sentencing so
    as not to affect his Guidelines range at the time of that
    sentencing. Second, Murray contends that, after the government
    failed to make that scheduling arrangement, it breached the
    agreement again by arguing for a 33-month sentence, which
    exceeded the agreed-upon Estimated Guidelines Range of 24 to
    30 months.
    On each point, we hold that Murray’s is the best reading of
    the agreement but that his reading is not so clear or obvious as
    to prevail under the plain error standard.
    A
    We begin with Murray’s contention that the government
    breached the agreement by failing to schedule his Superior
    Court pleas to follow his federal sentencing.
    1. Looking to the reasonable understanding of the parties
    and construing any ambiguities against the government, we
    conclude that Murray is correct: the best reading of the
    agreement is that the parties understood the Estimated
    Guidelines Range would be the final Guidelines range at
    sentencing, absent any material changes in the known
    10
    circumstances. Consequently, it was also reasonably understood
    that the Superior Court pleas would not count towards Murray’s
    criminal history category.
    There is no dispute that, at the time of the agreement,
    Murray had no criminal convictions. Nor is there any dispute
    that, when the two pleas were counted, they increased Murray’s
    criminal history score and category, and thus his Guidelines
    range, above the numbers “estimated” in the plea agreement.
    His score increased from 0 to 2, and his criminal history
    category from I to II. Instead of a Guidelines range of 24 to 30
    months, this made his range 27 to 33 months.
    It is true, as the government says, that the “agreement
    repeatedly made clear that the projected guidelines range was
    only an estimate and could change before sentencing.” U.S. Br.
    14. But it is also true that both parties knew Murray would soon
    plead to the Superior Court charges as required by the plea
    agreement. Thus, if those Superior Court pleas had been
    expected to increase the Guidelines calculations, there would
    have been no reason to include in the plea agreement three
    “estimates” that the parties knew would be wrong by the time of
    sentencing.
    Indeed, the purpose of including an estimated Guidelines
    range in a plea agreement is to predict, for the benefit of both the
    defendant and the government, the range that will be used at
    sentencing. See United States v. Habbas, 
    527 F.3d 266
    , 270 (2d
    Cir. 2008) (noting that estimated Guidelines ranges “ensure that
    guilty pleas indeed represent intelligent choices by defendants”
    (citation omitted)). And, as Murray’s plea agreement says, its
    “Sentencing Guidelines Analysis” was intended “to assist the
    Court in determining the appropriate sentence.” Plea Agreement
    ¶ 4 (J.A. 24). If the parties had known from the get-go that the
    Estimated Guidelines Range would be wrong at the time of the
    11
    sentencing, it would not have been of much assistance to the
    court -- or to the parties in deciding whether to enter into the
    plea agreement.
    Other language in the plea agreement confirms this reading.
    The agreement states that, “[b]ased upon the information now
    available to this Office, your client has no criminal convictions,”
    and that, as a consequence, “your client is estimated to have 0
    criminal history points.” Plea Agreement ¶ 4.B (J.A. 26)
    (emphasis added). It then goes on to say that “if additional
    convictions are discovered during the pre-sentence
    investigation” by the Probation Office, “your client’s criminal
    history points may increase.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    The “information now available” to the U.S. Attorney’s
    Office included the fact that Murray would soon have two
    Superior Court convictions. Likewise, there was nothing to
    “discover” about those two convictions; the government knew
    full well that they were coming. See MERRIAM-WEBSTER’S
    COLLEGIATE DICTIONARY 357 (11th ed. 2009) (defining to
    “discover” as “to make known or visible”; “to obtain sight or
    knowledge of for the first time”; “find out”). Thus, it would be
    surprising if the plea agreement’s reference to “information now
    available” excluded the upcoming convictions, and equally
    surprising if those convictions were included within the category
    of convictions that might be “discovered.”
    Moreover, such exclusion and inclusion could be viewed
    as misleading to Murray and hence in violation of the
    prosecutor’s “implied obligation of good faith and fair dealing”
    in connection with plea agreements. United States v. Ahn, 
    231 F.3d 26
    , 35-36 (D.C. Cir. 2000) (quoting United States v. Jones,
    
    58 F.3d 688
    , 692 (D.C. Cir. 1995)); accord 
    Henry, 758 F.3d at 431
    . This is yet another reason to read the agreement as
    12
    including an understanding that those convictions would not
    affect Murray’s Sentencing Guidelines range.5
    2. The conclusion we have just reached leads to the further
    inference that the agreement contemplated that Murray would
    enter his Superior Court pleas after being sentenced in federal
    court. This follows because the Sentencing Guidelines provide
    that a defendant is assigned one criminal history point for each
    prior offense to which the defendant has pled guilty but not yet
    been sentenced. See U.S.S.G. §§ 4A1.1(c), 4A1.2(a)(4).
    That is what happened to Murray: at his federal sentencing,
    the court correctly gave him 2 criminal history points for his two
    Superior Court pleas, notwithstanding that he had not yet been
    sentenced on those pleas. Thus, if the understanding that those
    pleas would not count toward his Sentencing Guidelines range
    was to be honored, there also had to be an understanding that he
    would not enter his Superior Court pleas until after the federal
    sentencing was completed. The government breached this
    understanding by scheduling Murray’s D.C. Superior Court
    pleas before his federal sentencing.
    5
    Further support for our reading comes from the warning at the
    end of the section of the agreement entitled “Estimated Applicable
    Guidelines Range.” That section opens by stating that, “[b]ased upon
    the agreed total offense level and the estimated criminal history
    category set forth above” -- the latter being Category I, based on 0
    criminal history points -- “your client’s estimated Sentencing
    Guidelines range is 24 months to 30 months.” Plea Agreement ¶ 4.C
    (J.A. 26). The end of the section warns, however, that “the terms of
    this section apply only to conduct that occurred before the execution
    of this Agreement.” 
    Id. (J.A. 27)
    (emphasis added). The conduct
    underlying the two Superior Court convictions did in fact occur before
    the plea agreement was signed -- 8 months and 16 months before that
    date. See PSR ¶¶ 67-68.
    13
    The government rejects this conclusion on the ground that
    “[p]leading guilty to the other crimes was a condition of
    [Murray’s] getting the benefits of the agreement.” U.S. Br. 17.
    It reads the “Breach of Agreement” section, Plea Agreement
    ¶ 11 (J.A. 31-32), to suggest the parties intended that Murray
    perform all of his promises first. The government posits that
    this section gave it recourse at Murray’s federal sentencing for
    any failure by Murray to fulfill his obligations, and therefore
    contemplated that he would complete all his obligations by that
    time. Recording of Oral Arg. 27:40.
    The government’s reading finds no support in the
    agreement’s text. Murray certainly agreed to plead guilty to the
    Superior Court charges as part of the overall plea agreement.
    But although the agreement addressed the timing of the
    government’s obligation to dismiss the remaining counts in each
    court vis-à-vis Murray’s obligation to plead guilty in that court,6
    it said nothing about the sequencing of activity between the two
    courts. And we will not read into the agreement’s silence on the
    issue of timing an implied condition favoring the government.
    See Bank of N.Y. Mellon Tr. Co. v. Morgan Stanley Mortg.
    Capital, Inc., 
    821 F.3d 297
    , 305 (2d Cir. 2016) (“Conditions
    precedent are not readily assumed. While specific, talismanic
    words are not required, the law nevertheless demands that
    conditions precedent be expressed in unmistakable language.”
    (internal quotation marks omitted)); 15 SAMUEL WILLISTON &
    RICHARD A. LORD, WILLISTON ON CONTRACTS § 44:47 (4th ed.
    1990). If anything, the plea agreement suggested the opposite
    by addressing the federal plea and sentencing first and the
    6
    See Plea Agreement ¶ 3 (J.A. 24) (providing that, in
    consideration for the federal plea, the remaining federal count would
    be dismissed at the federal sentencing; and that after the Superior
    Court pleas, the government would move for dismissal of the
    remaining Superior Court counts at the Superior Court sentencing).
    14
    Superior Court pleas and sentencing second.                See Plea
    Agreement ¶¶ 1, 3 (J.A. 23-24).
    Despite this lack of textual support, the government insists
    that it “was entitled to know” that Murray would “h[o]ld up his
    end of the bargain before making its sentencing
    recommendation.” U.S. Br. 17-18. That may be true, but
    Murray was equally entitled to know that the government would
    dismiss his remaining federal count in exchange for his pleading
    to the Superior Court counts. And Murray could not be assured
    of that dismissal until his federal sentencing. 
    See supra
    note 6.
    The government further argues that, if Murray had been
    permitted to wait until after the federal sentencing to plead to the
    Superior Court charges, and thereafter refused to plead, the
    government would have been without recourse. But the
    agreement contained many incentives for Murray to comply --
    and many negative consequences if he did not. If Murray
    refused to plead to the two Superior Court charges, he could be
    tried on those charges, on the remaining Superior Court charges,
    possibly on the dismissed federal charge (depending on double
    jeopardy considerations), and possibly on other federal charges
    as well.7 In addition, the government would be “free to use
    against” him all statements he had made to the government and
    to the court, including at his plea colloquy. Plea Agreement ¶ 11
    (J.A. 31).
    But the dispositive question is not whether the government
    could get all that it wanted in the event of a breach by Murray;
    the question is what the agreement provided. “[L]ook[ing] to
    7
    E.g., Plea Agreement ¶ 11 (J.A. 31) (providing that in the event
    of a breach of the agreement, Murray would “be fully subject to
    criminal prosecution for any other crimes, including perjury and
    obstruction of justice”).
    15
    the reasonable understanding of the parties and constru[ing] any
    ambiguities in the agreement against the government,” 
    Henry, 758 F.3d at 431
    , we conclude that Murray’s plea agreement
    evidenced the understanding that his upcoming Superior Court
    pleas would not count towards his Sentencing Guidelines range
    at his federal sentencing, and hence that the two Superior Court
    pleas would be entered after that sentencing. By scheduling
    those pleas before his federal sentencing, the government
    breached that understanding.
    3. Nevertheless, we cannot provide Murray with relief
    unless the breach constituted plain error because he did not
    object in the district court. See 
    Puckett, 556 U.S. at 134
    ;
    
    King-Gore, 875 F.3d at 1144
    . And to find plain error, it is not
    enough to base our reading on the parties’ “reasonable
    understanding” and on “constru[ing] any ambiguities” against
    the government. 
    Henry, 758 F.3d at 431
    . Rather, we must find
    that the breach was “clear or obvious.” 
    Puckett, 556 U.S. at 135
    .
    We cannot so find here.
    Murray’s assertion that the government breached the plea
    agreement by failing to effectuate the parties’ understanding that
    his final criminal history category would not include the
    Superior Court pleas requires resolving two ambiguities (or,
    really, two silences): (1) the agreement does not expressly
    address whether the not-yet-entered pleas would affect his final
    criminal history category and Guidelines range, and (2) the
    agreement does not expressly address the expected timing of
    those pleas.
    Although the first ambiguity alone might not be enough to
    render the agreement’s expectations unclear, we cannot say the
    same for the second. Scheduling the pleas after the federal
    sentencing appears to have been the only way the Estimated
    Guidelines Range would have been a useful prediction. But that
    16
    timing was unmentioned in the agreement, and relies on an
    analysis of Guidelines provisions that are also unmentioned in
    the agreement. See U.S.S.G. §§ 4A1.1(c), 4A1.2(a)(4). It is not
    at all obvious that the parties understood those provisions.
    Yes, counsel for both parties should have been schooled in
    the relevant Guidelines. See United States v. Soto, 
    132 F.3d 56
    ,
    59 (D.C. Cir. 1997); U.S. DEP’T OF JUSTICE, UNITED STATES
    ATTORNEYS’ MANUAL § 9-27.710 cmt. (rev. 2018). And
    defense counsel’s failure to understand them may be part of the
    ineffective assistance claim we address below. But the question
    before us is what the parties clearly agreed to, not what they
    should have agreed to in order to effectuate their unspoken
    understanding. And -- notwithstanding our conclusion above
    that Murray’s is the best reading of the agreement -- we cannot
    say that his position is so obvious as to grant him relief.
    There is also another, factual issue that makes the error less
    than obvious. It is one that we passed over in our prior
    discussion, but that we cannot simply assume in evaluating the
    plain error question. That is: who actually scheduled the
    Superior Court pleas and federal sentencing hearing, and who
    had the power to change their timing? The record does not
    reflect whether the government scheduled the proceedings on its
    own, whether the prosecutor and defense counsel found
    mutually agreeable dates, whether the designated courts set the
    dates based on their own calendars, or whether either court
    would have been amenable to a scheduling change if asked. The
    absence of a factual record that resolves at least some of these
    matters is yet another factor leaving Murray’s claim of a
    government breach less than plain.
    17
    B
    We next address Murray’s argument that the government
    further breached the plea agreement by recommending that the
    court sentence him to 33 months’ incarceration.
    1. Murray argues that, even if the government could not
    have avoided scheduling the Superior Court pleas before the
    federal sentencing, or inadvertently did so, it still could have
    avoided breaching the agreement by recommending a sentence
    of no more than 30 months. That sentence would have fallen
    within the final 27-to-33-month range but also would have been
    consistent with the 24-to-30-month range contemplated by the
    plea agreement. We agree that, under the best reading of the
    agreement, the government’s 33-month recommendation
    constituted a breach.
    The government maintains that, “[e]ven if the parties did
    not realize that the two separate guilty pleas . . . would increase
    the applicable guidelines range, . . . the agreement expressly
    [reserved the government’s right] to seek a sentence above the
    estimated range.” U.S. Br. 8. It is true that, under the plea
    agreement, Murray “reserve[d] the right to seek a sentence
    below the Estimated Guidelines Range . . . and the Government
    reserve[d] the right to seek a sentence above the Estimated
    Guidelines Range[,] based on § 3553(a) factors.” Plea
    Agreement ¶ 5 (J.A. 27). But that reservation was more
    qualified than the government acknowledges.
    The below- or above-Guidelines sentence referenced in the
    plea agreement is known as a “variance.”8 “[T]o sustain an
    8
    A “variance” refers to a non-Guidelines sentence imposed
    “outside the guidelines framework” based on the applicable factors in
    18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) taken as a whole. U.S.S.G. § 1B1.1 cmt.
    18
    upward variance, the district court . . . ‘must state the specific
    reason why the defendant’s conduct was more harmful or
    egregious than the typical case represented by th[e] [relevant
    Sentencing Guidelines] range.’” United States v. Brown, 
    892 F.3d 385
    , 404 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (quoting United States v. Brown,
    
    808 F.3d 865
    , 867 (D.C. Cir. 2015)); see United States v. Brown,
    
    857 F.3d 403
    , 405 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (“A judge imposing an
    above-Guidelines sentence must offer in court, and in writing,
    a specific reason why the defendant’s case calls for a more
    severe sentence than other cases falling within the same
    Guidelines categories.” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    In recommending a 33-month sentence, the government did
    not say that it was seeking a variance. Nor did it provide the
    court with reasons that would support the imposition of a
    variance. See Government’s Mem. in Aid of Sentencing 8-13
    (J.A. 42-47); Sentencing Hearing Tr. 13-29 (J.A. 83-99). It did
    not once attempt “to distinguish [Murray’s] case from others
    falling into the same Guidelines categories.” 
    Brown, 857 F.3d at 405
    . It did not tell the court why “the Guidelines ‘do not
    fully’ capture the egregiousness of th[e] defendant’s conduct.”
    
    Id. at 406
    (quoting United States v. Ransom, 
    756 F.3d 770
    , 775
    (D.C. Cir. 2014)). It did not make that argument about the
    Estimated Guidelines Range, as to which it reserved the right to
    background (emphasis added) (citing Irizarry v. United States, 
    553 U.S. 708
    , 709-16 (2008)). A “departure” refers to a “non-Guidelines
    sentence[] imposed under the framework set out in the Guidelines. . . .
    based on the sentencing guidelines, policy statements, and official
    commentary of the Sentencing Commission.” 
    Irizarry, 553 U.S. at 714
    (emphasis added) (internal quotation marks omitted); see U.S.S.G.
    § 1B1.1(b) & cmt. 1(E). Because the plea agreement stipulated that
    neither party would seek a “departure,” Plea Agreement ¶ 4.C (J.A.
    26-27), the reservation of the right to seek a below- or above-
    Guidelines range in Paragraph 5 of the agreement constituted the right
    to seek a variance.
    19
    seek a variance. It did not even make that argument about the
    final Guidelines range calculated by the district court.
    Instead, the government simply gave the court a variety of
    reasons for sentencing Murray at the top of the final sentencing
    range. See, e.g., Sentencing Hearing Tr. 14-15 (J.A. 84-85)
    (positing that the 30 grams of heroin “could have potentially
    reached, if it was sold not to informants, many, many
    individuals on the street”); 
    id. at 16
    (J.A. 86) (calculating that
    the 45 grams of PCP could have yielded “$1,600 in profit”); 
    id. at 17
    (J.A. 87) (citing Murray’s “very keen knowledge of how
    illegal narcotics are sold”).9 Although those reasons track
    § 3553(a) factors, see supra note 2 (describing the factors), that
    alone did not indicate that the government was seeking a
    variance. The courts use the same factors to determine the
    appropriate sentence within a Guidelines range and to determine
    whether an above-Guidelines sentence is appropriate. See
    
    Brown, 857 F.3d at 406
    ; United States v. Williams, 
    773 F.3d 98
    ,
    108 (D.C. Cir. 2014).
    As we have explained, the 33-month sentence that the
    government recommended was within the range only because
    the Superior Court pleas had been included in the final
    Guidelines calculation -- contrary to the understanding reflected
    in the plea agreement. But asking for a sentence that the
    government claimed was within the range was not the same as
    asking for a variance. In so doing, the government did not
    9
    See also Sentencing Hearing Tr. 17 (J.A. 87) (saying, “we’re
    very concerned” because “[w]e don’t know if [Murray] realizes how
    serious his involvement is”); 
    id. at 17
    -18 (J.A. 87-88) (arguing that
    Murray was “infecting our community with illegal drugs that can . . .
    dramatically change individuals’ lives”); 
    id. at 22
    (J.A. 92) (agreeing
    with Murray’s grandmother that he “needs to stop hanging around the
    streets, and he needs to . . . get away from that bad crowd”).
    20
    exercise its reservation but rather breached its agreement. See
    United States v. Palladino, 
    347 F.3d 29
    , 34 (2d Cir. 2003)
    (concluding that, in light of an estimated Guidelines range
    accompanied by similar “based upon information now known to
    the Office” language in the plea agreement, the “defendant had
    a reasonable expectation that the Government would not press
    the Court for an enhanced offense level in the absence of new
    information”); see also United States v. Canada, 
    960 F.2d 263
    ,
    269 (1st Cir. 1992) (stating that Supreme Court precedent
    “prohibits not only explicit repudiation of the government’s
    assurances, but must in the interests of fairness be read to forbid
    end-runs around them” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    2. Notwithstanding this conclusion, we cannot say that our
    reading of the plea agreement is sufficiently clear or obvious so
    as to qualify Murray for relief. The agreement does not
    expressly say that the government must seek a “variance,” nor
    does it explain the kind of reasons the government would need
    to assert to obtain a variance. It merely says that “the
    Government reserves the right to seek a sentence above the
    Estimated Guidelines Range based on § 3553(a) factors.” Plea
    Agreement ¶ 5 (J.A. 27). And that is literally what the
    government did, basing its request for an above-Guidelines
    sentence on reasons that tracked § 3553(a) factors. 
    See supra
    Part II.B.1 (noting that the § 3553(a) factors are relevant to
    recommendations for sentences both inside and outside the
    calculated Guidelines range).
    Given that the sentencing court correctly calculated a 27-to-
    33-month final range, the government’s 33-month
    recommendation was within the Sentencing Guidelines range,
    and did not technically require a variance. And even if it did, it
    is only when the government’s reservation is placed in the
    context of the legal requirements for a variance that we find it
    more reasonable to read the reservation as restricted to seeking
    21
    an above-Guidelines sentence on the ground that “the
    defendant’s case calls for a more severe sentence than other
    cases falling within the same Guidelines categories” -- i.e., on
    the ground that a variance is warranted. 
    Brown, 857 F.3d at 405
    .
    Therefore, it is not clear or obvious that the agreement limited
    the government to showing a variance was warranted in order to
    request an above-the-range sentence.
    C
    In sum, we conclude that the government breached its plea
    agreement with appellant Murray. But Murray did not object to
    the breaches in the district court, and we therefore cannot
    provide him with relief because the breaches were not plain.
    Although Murray’s interpretation of the agreement’s ambiguous
    language is the best one, we cannot say that the breaches should
    “have been obvious to the trial court.” 
    King-Gore, 875 F.3d at 1145
    ; see 
    Puckett, 556 U.S. at 135
    .
    III
    Murray also contends that his district court counsel was
    constitutionally ineffective. In order to succeed on this claim,
    Murray must show: (1) “that counsel’s performance was
    deficient,” and (2) “that the deficient performance prejudiced the
    defense.” Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984).
    In United States v. Rashad, 
    331 F.3d 908
    (D.C. Cir. 2003), we
    explained this circuit’s approach to ineffective assistance claims
    that are first raised on appeal:
    Due to the fact-intensive nature of the Strickland
    inquiry and the likelihood, when a defendant asserts his
    sixth amendment claim for the first time on direct
    appeal, that the relevant facts will not be part of the
    trial record, this court’s general practice is to remand
    22
    the claim for an evidentiary hearing unless the trial
    record alone conclusively shows that the defendant
    either is or is not entitled to relief.
    
    Id. at 909-10
    (citation and internal quotation marks omitted). In
    short, all that is required for a remand is “a colorable and
    previously unexplored claim of ineffective assistance.” 
    Id. at 908;
    see, e.g., United States v. Gray-Burriss, 
    791 F.3d 50
    , 64
    (D.C. Cir. 2015).
    The government insists that Murray has failed to establish
    a colorable claim of ineffective assistance of counsel, and hence
    that a remand is unwarranted. We disagree. We address the two
    prongs of the Strickland test below.
    A
    The first, “deficiency” prong of Strickland requires a
    showing that the lawyer’s performance “fell below an objective
    standard of 
    reasonableness.” 466 U.S. at 688
    . Murray has a
    colorable claim that his counsel’s representation fell below that
    standard.
    As discussed above, our best reading of the plea agreement
    is that the parties expected that, absent a change in material
    facts, the Estimated Guidelines Range would be the final
    Guidelines range that Murray would face at sentencing --
    notwithstanding his required Superior Court pleas -- and hence
    that his attorney should have delayed his Superior Court pleas
    (if that were possible) until after his federal plea. Murray
    claims, moreover, that his attorney made no “attempts at all to
    delay [his] D.C. Superior Court pleas.” Murray Br. 4.
    That constitutes a colorable claim of deficient performance.
    This circuit has held that a failure by defense counsel to seek a
    23
    delay in sentencing can be objectively unreasonable, and
    therefore constitutionally deficient, in light of the reasonably
    likely benefits of doing so. United States v. Abney, 
    812 F.3d 1079
    , 1088 (D.C. Cir. 2016). But the facts relevant to this claim
    -- including what counsel told Murray about the nature of the
    plea agreement -- are not part of the trial record. See 
    Rashad, 331 F.3d at 911
    . To put them on record, Murray likely will have
    to testify, question his former counsel, and possibly question the
    prosecutor as well. Accordingly, if there is also a colorable
    claim of prejudice -- a question we address below -- a remand to
    resolve this issue is required.
    Murray also claims that his counsel was deficient because
    he failed to object when the prosecutor recommended a sentence
    (33 months) that was above the 30-month ceiling of the
    Estimated Guidelines Range. Even if counsel could not have
    engineered a change in the sequencing of the pleas and the
    sentencing, Murray argues that he should have objected to the
    33-month sentence and alerted the district court that the
    recommendation breached the plea agreement.
    This, too, is a colorable claim of deficient performance.
    Under our best reading of the plea agreement, counsel had an
    obligation to object when the prosecutor breached that
    agreement by making a recommendation above the Estimated
    Guidelines Range without seeking a variance. He certainly had
    time to do so. The government submitted its memorandum
    more than a month before sentencing. Counsel could have
    raised the issue in his own memorandum or at sentencing.
    Instead, counsel’s sentencing argument was, as his own motion
    for withdrawal characterized it, “low-key.”          Counsel’s
    memorandum was bare bones, referring in cursory fashion to
    Murray’s youth and need for further education. At the
    sentencing hearing, counsel then rested on that memorandum,
    making no mention of the sentencing range to which the parties
    24
    had agreed. Indeed, when the court asked Murray’s counsel if
    he wanted to provide any explanation for the conduct underlying
    the Superior Court pleas, counsel declined. Sentencing Hearing
    Tr. 32-34 (J.A. 102-04).
    Once again, however, this deficiency claim rests on facts --
    including the nature of counsel’s advice during plea bargaining
    -- that are not part of the trial record. And so, once again, a
    remand will be required if Murray also has a colorable claim of
    prejudice.
    B
    To satisfy the second Strickland prong, Murray must show
    “that the deficient performance prejudiced” 
    him. 466 U.S. at 687
    . The prejudice that Murray alleges is an inappropriately
    high sentence. See Murray Br. 18.10 To establish prejudice in
    the sentencing context, a defendant need only show a
    “reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of [sentencing] would have been different.”
    See United States v. Eli, 
    379 F.3d 1016
    , 1019 (D.C. Cir. 2004)
    (citation omitted); accord Campbell v. Smith, 
    770 F.3d 540
    , 549
    (D.C. Cir. 2014) (applying this standard to claim that counsel
    provided ineffective assistance of counsel by failing to object to
    the government’s breach at sentencing). “The question isn’t
    whether [Murray’s] prison term would have been drastically
    shorter -- just whether it was reasonably likely that the prison
    term would not have been as long . . . .” In re Sealed Case, 
    573 F.3d 844
    , 852 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    10
    At oral argument, Murray’s appellate counsel advised, for the
    first time, that he “reserve[d] the right” to argue for vacatur of the plea
    agreement on remand. Recording of Oral Arg. 8:40. We leave that
    issue for the district court to address.
    25
    The government insists that, even if Murray’s counsel
    performed deficiently, he cannot show his mistakes made any
    difference to the outcome of the case. As the government
    accurately recounts, the district court correctly determined that
    Murray faced a Guidelines range of 27 to 33 months (as a
    consequence of the two Superior Court pleas), understood that
    Murray had a “relatively minimal criminal history,” Sentencing
    Hearing Tr. 37 (J.A. 107), and found Murray’s to be a
    “particularly difficult sentencing because Mr. Murray is such a
    young man,” 
    id. at 35
    (J.A. 105). “But notwithstanding [his]
    young age,” the court told Murray:
    I’ve concluded that the appropriate sentence in this
    case is at the high end of the sentencing guidelines
    range of 33 months. And I’ve done that both because
    of the concern about safety of the community . . . . But
    also because it’s my sincere, sincere hope that coming
    down on that side here with you now . . . will send you
    the message that you need for your life. Because I can
    tell you that I agree with [the government] that if this
    doesn’t do it . . . . I really have grave doubts about the
    rest of your life.
    
    Id. at 37-38
    (J.A. 107-08); see also 
    id. at 35
    (J.A. 105)
    (admonishing Murray that “heroin and PCP are both particularly
    dangerous and destructive drugs”). Against that background, the
    government contends that no “additional arguments about the
    guidelines or appellant’s guilty pleas would have persuaded the
    court to impose a lower sentence.” U.S. Br. 24. Again, we
    disagree.
    First, we must back up to Murray’s first colorable claim of
    deficient performance: counsel’s failure to insist that the
    Superior Court pleas be scheduled after the federal sentencing.
    Had those pleas not yet taken place at the time of the sentencing,
    26
    the 27-to-33-month range would not have been correct. Instead,
    the Estimated Guidelines Range of 24 to 30 months would have
    been correct, and a 33-month sentence would have required a
    variance -- a disposition that the government did not request and
    that the court did not indicate it would accept. See Sentencing
    Hearing Tr. 39 (J.A. 109) (statement by the district court judge
    that “I’m not going to vary or depart upward . . . I will stay
    within the sentencing guidelines”). Because “in most cases the
    Guidelines range will affect the sentence,” Molina-Martinez v.
    United States, 
    136 S. Ct. 1338
    , 1349 (2016), the prospect that
    effective performance would have put Murray’s 33-month
    sentence above the Guidelines range is sufficient to establish a
    reasonable probability of prejudice. Cf. 
    id. (holding that
    “a
    defendant sentenced under an incorrect Guidelines range should
    be able to rely on that fact to show a reasonable probability that
    the district court would have imposed a different sentence under
    the correct range”).
    Murray’s second colorable claim of deficient performance
    likewise yields a colorable claim of prejudice. Even if the final
    sentencing range ended up at 27 to 33 months, there is at least
    a “reasonable likelihood,” United States v. Mohammed, 
    693 F.3d 193
    , 204 (D.C. Cir. 2012), that a timely objection to the
    prosecutor’s 33-month recommendation would have yielded a
    lower prison term. It is true, as the government says, that the
    district court fully and adequately explained the 33-month
    sentence at which it arrived. But it did so on the basis of a
    recommendation by the prosecutor that it deemed “helpful.”
    Sentencing Hearing Tr. 32 (J.A. 102). The court was not
    advised that, in reaching their plea agreement, the parties
    assumed that 30 months was the top of the range that Murray
    would face, even with the Superior Court pleas. Nor was the
    court advised that the prosecutor was breaching that agreement
    by recommending 33 months.
    27
    Had the court known these things, it might well have
    considered a lower sentence. Even if the final sentencing range
    had been 27 to 33 months (because of the two Superior Court
    pleas), the court could still have effectuated the parties’
    understanding by sentencing Murray to between 27 and 30
    months, which would have fallen within both the Estimated
    Guidelines Range and the final range. It might have done so by
    recognizing, as Murray urges, that his final sentencing range had
    increased beyond what the plea agreement contemplated
    “simply because he had done what it required, apparently based
    solely on the serendipity of his D.C. Superior Court plea dates.”
    Murray Br. 17. This possibility is particularly reasonable given
    the Probation Office’s recommendation that Murray be
    sentenced to only 21 months, Sentencing Hearing Tr. 10 (J.A.
    80), and the court’s acknowledgment that this was “a
    particularly difficult sentencing,” 
    id. at 35
    (J.A. 105).
    In any event, all that is required to satisfy the second
    Strickland prong is a “reasonable likelihood” that the court
    would impose a sentence lower than 33 months, and all that is
    required for a Rashad remand is that this possibility be
    “colorable.” 
    Mohammed, 693 F.3d at 204
    . “At this stage,
    [Murray] need not prove actual prejudice, but merely show that
    the record does not ‘conclusively establish[] that he could not do
    so if given the chance.’” 
    Id. (quoting Rashad,
    331 F.3d at 912).
    He has done so.
    28
    IV
    For the foregoing reasons, although we conclude that the
    government breached its plea agreement with the appellant, we
    cannot vacate his sentence because the error was not plain. We
    can and do, however, remand Murray’s ineffective assistance
    claim for further proceedings in the district court because
    Murray has raised a colorable claim of ineffective assistance.
    So ordered.