United States v. Rick Brown , 880 F.3d 399 ( 2018 )


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  •                                In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    RICK E. BROWN & MARY C. TALAGA,
    Defendants-Appellants.
    ____________________
    Appeals from the United States District Court for the
    Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    Nos. 1:13-cr-00854-1, 1:13-cr-00854-3 — Gary Feinerman, Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED MAY 23, 2017 — DECIDED JANUARY 19, 2018
    ____________________
    Before BAUER, EASTERBROOK, and RIPPLE, Circuit Judges.
    RIPPLE, Circuit Judge. A grand jury indicted Rick E. Brown
    and Mary C. Talaga with one count of conspiracy to commit
    health-care fraud, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1349, six counts
    of health-care fraud, in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1347, and three
    counts of falsifying a matter or providing false statements, in
    violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1035(a). A jury convicted them on all
    counts. The district court sentenced Mr. Brown to
    eighty-seven months’ imprisonment on the health-care fraud
    2                                       Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    counts and terms of sixty months’ imprisonment on each of
    the falsification counts to run concurrently with each other
    and with the fraud counts. In doing so, the district court ex-
    plained that a significant sentence was warranted for several
    reasons, including general deterrence. Ms. Talaga was sen-
    tenced to concurrent forty-five-month sentences on all of the
    ten counts.
    Both defendants now maintain that the district court erred
    in imposing their respective sentences. Mr. Brown maintains
    that the district court’s assumptions about the need for gen-
    eral deterrence were unfounded and constituted procedural
    error. Ms. Talaga argues that, when the district court calcu-
    lated the amount of loss for which she was responsible, it im-
    permissibly included losses that occurred before she joined
    the conspiracy. The inclusion of these amounts resulted in a
    higher loss amount, corresponding to a higher offense level
    and sentence.
    Because the district court did not err in its reasoning or in
    its sentencing determination, we affirm its judgments.
    I
    BACKGROUND
    A.
    Medicall Physicians Group, Ltd. (“Medicall”), a company
    that provided home physician visits to patients, employed
    both Mr. Brown and Ms. Talaga. Mr. Brown served as Medi-
    call’s office manager, and Ms. Talaga had responsibility for
    medical billing. Dr. Roger Lucero, a third defendant, was the
    owner and medical director of the company. He pleaded
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                      3
    guilty to the conspiracy count, cooperated with the Govern-
    ment, and testified against both Mr. Brown and Ms. Talaga.
    Beginning at least as early as January 2007, Mr. Brown and
    Dr. Lucero began submitting false and fraudulent claims to
    Medicare. Ms. Talaga, who had been trained as a medical
    biller, joined Medicall in August 2007. She reported to
    Mr. Brown and was paid a percentage of Medicall’s earnings.
    According to the evidence, the fraud at Medicall took at
    least three forms. First, Mr. Brown and Ms. Talaga billed
    Medicare for “prolonged” visits, using the prolonged care
    code, as a way to pay for employees’ travel time. Second, re-
    gardless whether the patient qualified for, or received, the
    billed-for care, every patient was billed for “Care Plan Over-
    sight,” a type of physician supervision for patients requiring
    complex or multi-disciplinary care. Finally, Mr. Brown and
    Ms. Talaga billed Medicare for services purportedly provided
    to deceased patients, as well as services by providers who no
    longer were associated with Medicall.
    After hearing the evidence, the jury convicted both de-
    fendants on all counts of the indictment.
    1. Mr. Brown
    The probation office prepared a presentence report
    (“PSR”) for Mr. Brown. The PSR calculated a base offense
    level of six under U.S.S.G. § 2B1.1(a)(2), and then applied an
    eighteen-level increase under § 2B1.1(b)(1)(J) for an intended
    loss of approximately $4.3 million. The PSR also applied (1) a
    two-level increase for a federal health-care offense involving
    a loss of more than $1 million but less than $7 million; (2) a
    two-level increase for use of sophisticated means; (3) a
    4                                         Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    four-level increase for being a leader or organizer; and (4) a
    two-level increase for obstruction of justice because
    Mr. Brown had testified falsely at trial about his role in the
    offense. These increases yielded a total offense level of
    thirty-four that, when combined with Mr. Brown’s criminal
    history category of I, yielded a sentencing range of 151 to 188
    months.
    Mr. Brown objected to various aspects of the PSR’s calcu-
    lation. The district court agreed with Mr. Brown that the fraud
    did not involve sophisticated means. It also gave Mr. Brown
    the benefit of the loss table in the new Guidelines, which
    yielded a sixteen-level increase, as opposed to an eighteen-
    level increase, for amount of loss. When combined with
    Mr. Brown’s criminal history category, the new calculation
    yielded a guidelines range of 121 to 151 months.
    The district court then considered “the 3553(a) factors one
    1
    by one.” It also observed that “[s]ubsection (a)(2) requires the
    Court to consider the need for the sentence imposed to accom-
    plish the various purposes of criminal punishment. The first
    purpose is to reflect the seriousness of the offense, to promote
    respect for the law, and to provide just punishment for the
    2
    offense.” The court considered the crimes to be “serious” be-
    cause they occurred “over an extended period of time” and
    3
    involved “$4.3 million in false claims.” The second purpose
    1   R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 95.
    2   
    Id. at 100.
    3   
    Id. at 95.
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                5
    articulated in 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a) “is to afford adequate deter-
    4
    rence to criminal conduct.” The court considered this pur-
    pose “a significant factor” because Medicare fraud unfortu-
    nately is widespread “in this country; and those who are in
    the medical field and who are tempted to engage in fraud
    must know, they have to know, that the penalties are severe,
    5
    particularly given the low likelihood of getting caught.” The
    court stated that it agreed with the Government
    that people in the healthcare business and in the
    home healthcare business in particular will
    know about this sentence, and this sentence has
    to send a signal. It’s not the only consideration,
    and it’s not the most important consideration,
    but it is a consideration that 3553(a)(2)(B) directs
    me to consider, and I do have to consider that.[6]
    Finally, the court noted that, with respect to specific deter-
    rence, it was “highly unlikely” that Mr. Brown would commit
    7
    a crime in the future. The court then sentenced Mr. Brown to
    eighty-seven months’ imprisonment.
    The court reiterated many of these considerations in its
    oral statement of reasons:
    I don’t think that anything less than 87
    months would be sufficient to fulfill the pur-
    poses of 3553(a), and here’s why: The duration
    4   
    Id. at 100.
    5   
    Id. 6 Id.
    at 101.
    7   
    Id. 6 Nos.
    15-3117 & 15-3261
    of the scheme. It went on for several years. This
    wasn’t a momentary slip … . This was a sus-
    tained course of knowing criminal conduct.
    The amount actually stolen, over $1.3 mil-
    lion. That’s a lot of money.
    I’m going to come back to general deter-
    rence. This is a white collar crime, so the sen-
    tence imposed here is far more likely to have a
    deterrent effect on Mr. Brown’s cohorts, those
    also involved in the medical profession, than a
    sentence in a drug case or an illegal re-entry
    case.
    I do agree … that people in the healthcare
    field, people who are business—men and
    women who are business people, they engage in
    a cost/benefit analysis. And the benefit is the
    benefit if you don’t get caught, and the cost is
    the probability of getting caught multiplied by
    the sanction.
    And there’s a low probability of getting
    caught, so the sanction has to be serious. It has
    to be real, if there’s any hope of ensuring that at
    least when people look at the cost and the bene-
    fits, when they’re contemplating fraud, that
    they realize that cost will outweigh the benefits.
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                           7
    And finally, there’s Mr. Brown’s failure to
    accept responsibility, and in particular his repe-
    tition of the claim … that he wasn’t responsible
    for the fraud.[8]
    2. Ms. Talaga
    The probation office also prepared a PSR for Ms. Talaga. It
    set her base offense level at six pursuant to § 2B1.1, and ap-
    plied an eighteen-level increase for the amount of loss (greater
    than $2.5 million, but less than $7 million). It also included a
    two-level increase for use of sophisticated means and a
    two-level increase for a federal health-care offense. These de-
    terminations yielded an offense level of twenty-eight that,
    when combined with a criminal history category of I, yielded
    a guidelines range of seventy-eight to ninety-seven months.
    Ms. Talaga objected to various aspects of the PSR. Her pri-
    mary argument was that the intended loss amount should be
    reduced. She submitted that her “intended loss could not
    have been more than the amount that Medicare actually paid
    because Ms. Talaga knew that Medicall … would not have ob-
    9
    tained the full $4M+ that Medicall … fraudulently billed.”
    Specifically, she noted that an application note to the fraud
    guideline states “that the aggregate dollar amount of fraudu-
    lent bills ‘is evidence sufficient to establish the amount of [the]
    8   
    Id. at 105–06.
    9   R.242 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 1.
    8                                                  Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    10
    intended loss, if not rebutted’ by the defendant.” She claimed
    that
    [u]nlike co-defendants Rick Brown and
    Dr. Roger Lucero, [she] “was intimately familiar
    with the billing procedures of the medical prac-
    tice” as well as with 42 U.S.C. § 1395w-4(a)(1),
    which provides that Medicare can never pay
    any more than “the amount determined under
    the Medicare fee schedule.” The Government’s
    own investigation establishes that Ms. Talaga
    successfully completed “Medical Billing,” a
    course at Triton Junior College, and the “Medi-
    cal Billing” course syllabus explains than the
    course is “all about Medicare and medical bill-
    ing problems,” but that the course covers
    mostly Medicare issues. Further, Triton College
    staff and a Triton Medical Billing course profes-
    sor confirmed that the course “cover[s] in
    depth” the Medicare regulation that Medicare
    can never pay any more than the Medicare fee
    schedule. Even aside from Ms. Talaga’s school-
    ing, Ms. Talaga would have had to have under-
    stood Medicare’s payment practices because
    her income was based entirely on Medicare pay-
    ment amounts with respect to her submitted
    bills to Medicare.[11]
    10   
    Id. (quoting U.S.S.G.
    § 2B1.1 cmt. n.3(F)(viii)).
    11   
    Id. at 3–4
    (footnotes omitted).
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                        9
    Consequently, she claimed, she had rebutted the Govern-
    ment’s prima facie case.
    Ms. Talaga also argued that the amount of loss should be
    decreased because she did not recognize that she was com-
    12
    mitting fraud when she first began at Medicall. Ms. Talaga
    pointed to the testimony of another biller, Arian Shogren,
    who testified that Mr. Brown told her that all patients actually
    were receiving Care Plan Oversight. At first, Shogren stated
    that she believed Mr. Brown; however, “she recognized the
    13
    fraud ‘at the end’ of her time working at Medicall.” Ms. Tal-
    aga submitted that she, similarly, did not recognize the fraud
    at the outset.
    The court accepted that, as an experienced biller, she
    would be familiar with Medicare’s reimbursement levels.
    Therefore, concluded the court, Ms. Talaga should not be re-
    sponsible for the amount of all the false claims, but only those
    that fell within the reimbursement schedule set by Medicare.
    Thus Ms. Talaga’s amount of loss was reduced to $3.262 mil-
    14
    lion. The court also reduced Ms. Talaga’s loss amount by
    $222,000 for the few months during the conspiracy that she
    did not work for Medicall. These reductions, however, did not
    result in a reduction in offense level.
    The court rejected Ms. Talaga’s argument that she should
    not be responsible for fraudulent billings from the beginning
    12   See 
    id. at 6.
    13   
    Id. (footnote omitted).
    14   See R.387 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 34–35.
    10                                      Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    15
    of her tenure. The court found by the preponderance of the
    evidence that a seasoned and trained medical biller would
    have realized, from the outset, that not every single patient
    was receiving Care Plan Oversight, that the number of hours
    being billed for Care Plan Oversight could not be reconciled
    with the number of actual services that Dr. Lucero was per-
    forming, and that she did not have the required documenta-
    16
    tion for the bills that she was submitting.
    Giving Ms. Talaga the benefit of the upcoming amended
    schedule, the court calculated a new guidelines range of
    fifty-one to sixty-three months. After considering the
    § 3553(a) factors, the court imposed a sentence of forty-five
    months’ imprisonment.
    Both Mr. Brown and Ms. Talaga timely appealed their sen-
    tences.
    II
    DISCUSSION
    Both Mr. Brown and Ms. Talaga maintain that the district
    court committed procedural error when imposing their sen-
    tences. “Whether a district court followed proper sentencing
    procedure is a question of law that we review de novo.”
    United States v. Olmeda-Garcia, 
    613 F.3d 721
    , 723 (7th Cir. 2010).
    To ensure that the sentencing judge did not
    commit any “significant procedural error,” we
    15   See 
    id. at 29.
    16   See 
    id. Nos. 15-3117
    & 15-3261                                          11
    examine whether the district court: i) properly
    calculated the Guidelines range; ii) recognized
    that the Guidelines range was not mandatory;
    iii) considered the sentencing factors in
    18 U.S.C. § 3553(a); iv) selected a sentence based
    on facts that were not clearly erroneous; and v)
    adequately explained the chosen sentence in-
    cluding an explanation for any deviation from
    the Guidelines range.
    United States v. Lockwood, 
    840 F.3d 896
    , 900 (7th Cir. 2016)
    (quoting Gall v. United States, 
    552 U.S. 38
    , 53 (2007)). We con-
    sider first Mr. Brown’s claim of error and then turn to Ms. Tal-
    aga’s.
    A.
    With respect to Mr. Brown, the district court properly cal-
    culated the guidelines range, recognized its ability to depart
    from the Guidelines, considered all of the § 3553(a) factors,
    and imposed a sentence that was thirty-four months below the
    guidelines range—a sentence that the court characterized as
    17
    “a significant downward variance.” The court noted that
    four factors prevented it from departing further: the duration
    of the scheme, the amount of the fraud, the need for general
    18
    deterrence, and Mr. Brown’s failure to accept responsibility.
    17   R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 103.
    18   See 
    id. at 105–06.
    12                                            Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    All of these factors are legitimate considerations for the court
    to take into account. See 18 U.S.C. § 3553(a).
    Mr. Brown maintains, however, that the district court
    committed procedural error because it relied on “unfounded”
    19
    assumptions in articulating a need for general deterrence.
    Specifically, Mr. Brown questions the district court’s belief
    that would-be white-collar criminals engage in cost-benefit
    analyses in deciding whether to engage in illicit activities. He
    further questions the court’s application of this principle to
    the health-care context, specifically that, given the “low prob-
    20
    ability of getting caught,” a serious penalty was necessary to
    21
    deter others from engaging in this kind of crime.
    We previously have endorsed the idea that white-collar
    criminals “act rationally, calculating and comparing the risks
    and the rewards before deciding whether to engage in crimi-
    nal activity.” United States v. Warner, 
    792 F.3d 847
    , 860–61 (7th
    Cir. 2015). They are, therefore, “prime candidates for general
    deterrence.” 
    Id. at 860
    (quoting United States v. Peppel, 
    707 F.3d 627
    , 637 (6th Cir. 2013)). Our approach comports with that of
    our sister circuits. See United States v. Musgrave, 
    761 F.3d 602
    ,
    19   Appellant Brown’s Br. 35.
    20 R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 100 (observing that Medicare fraud unfortu-
    nately is widespread “in this country” and that “those who are in the med-
    ical field and who are tempted to engage in fraud must know … that the
    penalties are severe, particularly given the low likelihood of getting
    caught”).
    21Id. at 105 (“[M]en and women who are businesspeople, they engage in
    a cost/benefit analysis. And the benefit is the benefit if you don’t get
    caught, and the cost is the probability of getting caught multiplied by the
    sanction.”).
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                   13
    609 (6th Cir. 2014) (“Because economic and fraud-based
    crimes are more rational, cool, and calculated than sudden
    crimes of passion or opportunity, these crimes are prime can-
    didates for general deterrence.” (quoting 
    Peppel, 707 F.3d at 637
    )); United States v. Martin, 
    455 F.3d 1227
    , 1240 (11th Cir.
    2006) (using language identical to that in Musgrave); cf. United
    States v. Goffer, 
    721 F.3d 113
    , 132 (2d Cir. 2013) (noting that
    “high sentences” were necessary to alter the calculus “that in-
    sider trading ‘was a game worth playing’”). The district court,
    therefore, did not err in relying on such a widely accepted
    principle.
    The district court was entitled to conclude that, given that
    health-care fraud is widespread and that therefore there is a
    lower likelihood of getting caught, a serious penalty was nec-
    essary to ensure deterrence. At sentencing, the Government
    specifically brought to the district court’s attention that “the
    Medicare program has imposed a moratorium on additional
    companies joining the program to provide home healthcare
    22
    services because it is–the fraud in the area is so prevalent.”
    Mr. Brown did not dispute this assertion, either by way of ar-
    23
    gument or contrary evidence.               Indeed, in his brief to this
    22   
    Id. at 71.
    23 Indeed, any such argument by Mr.    Brown would have been unfounded
    because the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services did extend its mor-
    atorium on new home health agencies in Chicago, among other metropol-
    itan areas, based on the “significant potential for fraud, waste, or abuse.”
    Medicare, Medicaid, and Children’s Health Insurance Programs: An-
    nouncement of the Extension of Temporary Moratoria on Enrollment of
    Part B Non-Emergency Ground Ambulance Suppliers and Home Health
    14                                            Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    court he acknowledges that “white collar crimes such as
    health care fraud, public corruption, and the like, seem to con-
    24
    tinue unabated.”
    Mr. Brown also submits, however, that “[s]ome press re-
    leases and news articles leading up to Brown’s September
    2015 sentencing hearing include rather dramatic statistics
    about the success of intensified law enforcement efforts in the
    25
    area of Medicare fraud.” Given these increased efforts and
    the publicity they received, Mr. Brown suggests that “it is dif-
    ficult to understand how the district court could have so
    heartily agreed with the proposition that white-collar offend-
    26
    ers in Brown’s field are less likely to get caught.” Mr. Brown
    never invited the district court’s attention to these press re-
    leases and articles. Therefore, we can hardly fault the court for
    not considering them. “[S]entencing judges cannot be ex-
    pected to rely on evidence not before them.” United States v.
    Reibel, 
    688 F.3d 868
    , 872 (7th Cir. 2012).
    Moreover, even if this material had been presented to the
    district court, it would not have required the court to alter its
    conclusion that those who engage in Medicare fraud have a
    27
    “low likelihood of getting caught.” In determining the im-
    portance of deterrence in crafting a sentence, the sentencing
    Agencies in Designated Geographic Locations, 82 Fed. Reg. 2363 (Jan. 9,
    2017).
    24   Appellant Brown’s Br. 41.
    25   
    Id. at 37–38.
    26   
    Id. at 39.
    27   R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 100.
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                    15
    court must answer the situation from the perspective of the
    prospective offender. From that perspective, the likelihood of
    getting caught depends not simply on the amount of re-
    sources that the Government expends on a particular type of
    crime, but the frequency with which the particular crime is
    committed and the ease with which it can be committed and
    go undetected. Indeed, Mr. Brown observed in his brief that
    28
    “health care fraud … seem[s] to continue unabated.” The
    vast size and complexity of the Medicare program makes
    29
    fraud detection especially difficult. Indeed, the unique prob-
    lems faced in detecting fraud in the home-health-care indus-
    try prompted the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services
    to extend its moratorium on new home-health-care agencies
    in Chicago—a fact specifically brought to the district court’s
    30
    attention. In short, because of the magnitude of the Medicare
    program, an increase in resources would not necessarily re-
    sult in a potential offender determining that there is a mean-
    ingful increase in the likelihood of detection. The district court
    did not err, therefore, in resting its conclusion about the need
    28   Appellant Brown’s Br. 41.
    29 The Government Accountability Office continues to designate “Medi-
    care as a high-risk program … due to its size, complexity, and susceptibil-
    ity to mismanagement and improper payments.” Gov’t Accountability Of-
    fice, High Risk Series 520 (2017), https://www.gao.gov/assets/690/
    682765.pdf; see also United States v. Kuhlman, 
    711 F.3d 1321
    , 1328 (11th Cir.
    2013) (observing that “deterrence is an important factor in the sentencing
    calculus because health care fraud is so rampant that the government lacks
    the resources to reach it all”).
    30   See R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 71.
    16                                      Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    for general deterrence on the basis that there was a low likeli-
    hood of getting caught for Medicare fraud.
    Mr. Brown maintains, however, that his case is indistin-
    guishable from United States v. England, 
    555 F.3d 616
    (7th Cir.
    2009), and other cases in which we have found error because
    the district court based the sentence on unfounded assump-
    tions. In England, the defendant, while incarcerated, threat-
    ened witnesses over the telephone and later was convicted of
    threatening force against a witness, his brother-in-law. At sen-
    tencing, the court articulated the belief that, had the defend-
    ant been out on bond, he would have armed himself and used
    “what degree of force … was necessary to get them to drop
    the charges against him.” 
    Id. at 620–21
    (internal quotation
    marks omitted). The district court, therefore, determined that
    the appropriate guideline was § 2A2.1, “Assault with Intent
    to Commit Murder; Attempted Murder,” and that the nature
    of the offense warranted a sentence within the attempted-
    murder guideline range. 
    Id. at 618–19.
    On appeal, we evalu-
    ated whether the district court’s findings “were sufficiently
    ‘based on reliable evidence’ to satisfy due process, or if they
    amount[ed] to speculation, albeit informed, that f[ell] short of
    satisfying due process requirements.” 
    Id. at 622
    (quoting
    United States v. Santiago, 
    495 F.3d 820
    , 824 (7th Cir. 2007)). We
    explained that
    [t]he preponderance of the evidence standard
    satisfies due process in a case, such as this one,
    where the district court sentences a defendant
    based on the guideline for a crime the court be-
    lieves the defendant would have committed if
    out of prison on bond. Simply put, the question
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                      17
    here is whether a preponderance of the evi-
    dence supports the court’s belief that the defend-
    ant would have committed the crime. Adhering
    to such a standard operates to preclude a sen-
    tencing court from sentencing defendants for
    crimes not sufficiently supported by reliable ev-
    idence.
    
    Id. In England,
    we were “unable to conclude that a preponder-
    ance of the evidence buttresse[d] the court’s belief that Eng-
    land would have” committed the crime of attempted murder
    because all of the defendant’s family, including the threat-
    ened witness, “testified that they did not feel threatened by
    England’s statements” but “that England was merely ‘blow-
    ing off steam’ in issuing threats.” 
    Id. at 623.
    “[B]ecause the ev-
    idence appear[ed] at least in equipoise,” the preponderance
    of the evidence standard was not met. 
    Id. Mr. Brown’s
    situation stands in stark contrast to the de-
    fendant in England. In England, the district court drew conclu-
    sions about England’s individual conduct, which were not
    supported by a preponderance of the evidence, to determine
    England’s presumptive guideline range and then sentenced
    England within that range. Here, however, the factual foun-
    dations for the district court’s guideline calculation are sound.
    Moreover, the district court’s statements regarding white-col-
    lar crime and the prevalence of Medicare fraud are not un-
    founded assumptions but are grounded in case law, in the rec-
    31
    ord, and in common sense.
    31The other cases on which Mr. Brown relies are equally unhelpful. In
    United States v. Halliday, 
    672 F.3d 462
    (7th Cir. 2012), the district court, in
    18                                              Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    Here, Mr. Brown faults the district court for not address-
    ing and accepting his policy argument, based on penological
    studies, that “it is the certainty of conviction rather than the
    32
    length of sentence that serves to deter.” In the district court,
    the only mention of these studies was at the sentencing hear-
    ing. Defense counsel stated:
    reviewing § 3553(a) factors, stated that “Halliday believed [child pornog-
    raphy] was ‘victimless’ and that he did not ‘believe any of this is crimi-
    nal.’” 
    Id. at 474.
    However, there was no evidence in the record for the
    court’s conclusions; the “statements about Halliday’s belief that the crimes
    at issue were ‘victimless’ were pure speculation.” 
    Id. at 475.
    Here, the
    court’s statement about the low likelihood of being caught for health-care
    fraud is grounded in the fact that Medicare fraud, and specifically home-
    health-care fraud, is prevalent, a fact that explicitly was raised during sen-
    tencing.
    Similarly in United States v. Bradley, 
    628 F.3d 394
    , 395 (7th Cir. 2010),
    the district court imposed a sentence that was 169 months above the guide-
    lines range. The district court believed a severe penalty was necessary be-
    cause, according to the court, the defendant had a long, undiscovered his-
    tory of engaging in sexual activity with minors. However, there was no
    evidence in the record that the defendant had engaged in sexual activity
    with any minor except for the victim. In reviewing the sentence, we ob-
    served that the district court had made “a questionable … prediction
    about future conduct based on rank speculation about other, multiple in-
    stances of deviant behavior.” 
    Id. at 401.
    Here, the court did not engage in
    any speculation about the defendant’s past or future conduct, and specu-
    lation was not used to justify an above-guidelines sentence. Cf. United
    States v. Martin, 
    718 F.3d 684
    , 688 (7th Cir. 2013) (noting that, “although
    we have held that a district court’s unfounded speculation that sex offend-
    ers are not deterrable may necessitate remand, we have done so only
    where the court imposed an above-guidelines sentence for purposes of
    deterrence” (citation omitted)).
    32   Brown’s Reply Br. 3.
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                             19
    I’ll just note briefly that the statute only requires
    adequate deterrence, not maximal deterrence
    with the sentence the Court imposes. And I
    would also add that studies have shown that it’s
    really the certainty of punishment that drives
    people more in terms of deterrence than the ac-
    tual severity or even the swiftness of the impo-
    sition of punishment.[33]
    For these reasons, counsel urged, “even a modest prison term
    for Mr. Brown could send that adequate message to society
    that law enforcement can and will investigate you for Medi-
    34
    care fraud.” The district court did not have before it any spe-
    cific studies. Indeed, Mr. Brown did not bring specific studies
    35
    to this court’s attention until his reply brief.
    There is no question that, from a procedural perspective,
    the district court addressed and rejected this argument. In its
    statement of reasons, the court stated that it “agree[d] with
    [Government counsel] that people in the healthcare field …
    engage in a cost/benefit analysis. And the benefit is the benefit
    if you don’t get caught, and the cost is the probability of get-
    36
    ting caught multiplied by the sanction.”
    The district court was under no obligation to accept or to
    comment further on Mr. Brown’s deterrence argument. In
    United States v. Schmitz, 
    717 F.3d 536
    , 542 (7th Cir. 2013), the
    33   R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 61.
    34   
    Id. 35 See
    Brown’s Reply Br. 3–4.
    36   R.386 (1:13-cr-00854-1) at 105.
    20                                      Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    defendant pleaded guilty to mail fraud, and the resulting
    guidelines sentence was 87 to 108 months. Before the district
    court, the defendant argued that the recently increased “pen-
    alties for fraud offenses represented a departure from the phi-
    losophy animating the original version of the Guidelines,
    namely that a short but definite period of incarceration would
    suffice as a deterrent to most white collar offenders.” 
    Id. at 539.
    The district court, without explicitly addressing this ar-
    gument, sentenced Schmitz to a term of eighty-four months.
    On appeal, we determined that Schmitz’s argument was
    “not one addressed to his own characteristics and circum-
    stances,” but “was a categorical challenge to the validity of
    the fraud guideline, on the ground that the severity of sen-
    tences called for by the current incarnation of that guideline
    is unsupported by any empirical data demonstrating the
    need” for longer sentences. 
    Id. at 542.
    Because it was a “blan-
    ket challenge to the guideline rather than one tailored to [the
    defendant’s] unique characteristics and circumstances, it
    [wa]s not one that the district judge [had to] explicitly ad-
    dress.” 
    Id. Moreover, the
    district court “was perfectly entitled
    to accept the penal philosophy embodied in the current fraud
    guideline and was not obligated to explain why [it] chose to
    do so.” Id.; see also United States v. Hancock, 
    825 F.3d 340
    , 344
    (7th Cir. 2016) (quoting Schmitz for the proposition that a dis-
    trict court need not address Hancock’s policy argument that
    “the Guidelines’ offense-level increases for receipt, transport,
    possession, or distribution of child-pornography, fit poorly
    with modern practical realities” and specifically reiterating
    that “the district judge was ‘perfectly entitled to accept the
    penal philosophy embodied in the current [child-pornogra-
    phy] guideline’” (alteration in original)).
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                  21
    Like the district courts in Schmitz and Hancock, here the
    district court was “perfectly entitled to accept the penal phi-
    losophy embodied” in the Guidelines that societal goals are
    served by increasing fraud sentences to reflect the amount of
    loss, as opposed to imposing only nominal sentences. We find
    no substantive or procedural error in the district court’s im-
    position of sentence on Mr. Brown.
    B.
    We turn now to Ms. Talaga’s sentence. She takes issue
    with one of the factual bases on which the court’s calculation
    of loss rests. Specifically, she claims that the district court’s
    calculation of loss should not include amounts for claims da-
    ting back to 2007 because the Government did not prove that
    she was aware at that time that the claims were fraudulent.
    We review the district court’s determination of loss for clear
    error, see United States v. Diamond, 
    378 F.3d 720
    , 726 (7th Cir.
    2004), and will reverse the district court “only if we are left
    with the definite and firm conviction that a mistake was
    made,” United States v. Bryant, 
    557 F.3d 489
    , 497 (7th Cir. 2009)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    The record supports the district court’s conclusion that, in
    2007, Ms. Talaga would have known that her submissions
    were fraudulent. Before the district court, Ms. Talaga argued
    that she had training in Medicare billing and “was intimately
    37
    familiar with the billing procedures of the medical practice.”
    37   R.242 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 3 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    22                                                 Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    She also submitted documentation of her successful comple-
    tion of a course at Triton Junior College on Medical Billing
    38
    that was “all about Medicare and medical billing problems.”
    Consequently, she maintained that her intended loss should
    be based on what Medicare actually paid, not what was billed,
    because she “knew that Medicall … would not have obtained
    39
    the full $4M+ that [it] fraudulently billed.” The district court
    accepted this argument to reduce Ms. Talaga’s amount of loss
    to $3.262 million. This same evidence supports the district
    court’s conclusion that Ms. Talaga would have recognized
    from the outset that there was a problem with billing every
    patient for Care Plan Oversight, that the numbers of hours for
    Care Plan Oversight could not be reconciled with the number
    of hours that the physicians spent performing other services,
    and that there was a lack of documentation to support the
    40
    claims she was submitting.
    Having convinced the district court of her expertise,
    Ms. Talaga now tries to discount the training she received. As
    we already have noted, however, in addition to her formal
    education, Ms. Talaga was an experienced Medicare biller
    when she arrived at Medicall. There was testimony that she
    performed her work quickly, that she knew how to re-code
    rejected claims so that they would be paid, and that she
    41
    trained other staff. The district court reasonably concluded
    38   
    Id. at 3–4
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    39   
    Id. at 1.
    40   See R.387 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 29.
    41   See R.374 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 100 (Trial Tr. 346).
    Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261                                                23
    that, based on Ms. Talaga’s training and experience, she
    would have recognized, based on the sheer volume of claims
    for Care Plan Oversight (totaling up to three weeks per month
    42
    of Dr. Lucero’s time), that these claims were fraudulent.
    Ms. Talaga also submits that other evidence in the record
    undermines the court’s conclusion that she would have rec-
    ognized the fraud. Ms. Talaga points to the testimony of an-
    other Medicall biller, Arian Shogren, who stated that she ini-
    tially believed that all patients actually were receiving Care
    Plan Oversight. However, Shogren did not have experience
    with Medicare billing before she began working at Medicall.
    Indeed, when she began working at Medicall, she was a tech-
    nician who did scheduling, took vitals, and kept track of pa-
    43
    tients’ medications. Later, she performed some billing after
    44
    receiving training from Ms. Talaga. Consequently, the fact
    that she did not immediately recognize the fraud does not
    suggest that Ms. Talaga, an experienced biller, also failed to
    do so.
    Second, Ms. Talaga observes that one Government wit-
    ness, Kelly Hartung, gave conflicting definitions of Care Plan
    Oversight. In her view, because the Government’s own wit-
    ness could not articulate consistently a definition for Care
    Plan Oversight, it “is unrealistic” to expect that she would
    42   See R.265 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 9 (citing Gov’t Trial Ex. 7-S).
    43   See R.375 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 6–7 (Trial Tr. 402–03).
    44   
    Id. at 9–10
    (Trial Tr. 405–06).
    24                                                Nos. 15-3117 & 15-3261
    have been able to recognize that the bills for Care Plan Over-
    45
    sight were fraudulent. However, the fact that Hartung had
    difficulty articulating the definition of Care Plan Oversight
    46
    during cross-examination does not negate the fact that
    Ms. Talaga, as a trained Medicare biller, knew when it was
    appropriate to bill for Care Plan Oversight and knew that
    Care Plan Oversight bills—in such a high volume that they
    represented the bulk of Dr. Lucero’s time—were fraudulent.
    Ms. Talaga has not established that the district court com-
    mitted clear error in holding her responsible for fraudulent
    claims from the beginning of her tenure with Medicall. We
    therefore affirm her sentence.
    Conclusion
    For the foregoing reasons, we affirm the district court’s
    judgments with respect to the sentences of Mr. Brown
    and Ms. Talaga.
    AFFIRMED
    45   Appellant Talaga’s Br. 10–11.
    46 See   R.373 (1:13-cr-00854-3) at 40–49 (Trial Tr. 127–36).