United States v. Eddie Lee , 724 F.3d 968 ( 2013 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 12-1718
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    EDDIE LEE,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Central District of Illinois.
    No. 10 CR 30058 — Richard Mills, Judge.
    ARGUED MAY 22, 2013 — DECIDED AUGUST 1, 2013
    Before FLAUM, ROVNER, and SYKES, Circuit Judges.
    ROVNER, Circuit Judge.       A jury convicted defendant-
    appellant Eddie Lee of conspiring to distribute and possessing
    with the intent to distribute 50 or more grams of a substance
    2                                                     No. 12-1718
    containing cocaine base, in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
    (a)(1),
    841(b)(1)(A), and 846. The district court ordered him to serve
    a prison term of 20 years. Lee appeals, contending that the
    district court abused its discretion by admitting into evidence
    at trial proof that he had previously been convicted of possess-
    ing cocaine base. See Fed. R. Evid. 404(b). We agree and
    reverse.
    I.
    Lee was named in a 2010 indictment along with co-defen-
    dants Darin Hurt, Anthony Clardy, and Christopher Holcomb.
    Hurt was a retail seller of crack cocaine in Springfield, Illinois,
    who was assisted on occasion by Holcomb and Clardy. It was
    the government’s theory that Lee was one of Hurt’s suppliers.
    Drug enforcement agents were led to Hurt, Holcomb, and
    Clardy by Roderick Pickett, one of Hurt’s customers. Pickett
    assumed the role of a confidential informant and made two
    controlled purchases of crack cocaine from Hurt in the Fall of
    2009 that were recorded on video. Those purchases, along with
    the discovery of a distribution-sized quantity of crack cocaine
    in a car that Lee was driving in December 2009, led to the
    eventual arrest and indictment of Lee, Hurt, Clardy, and
    Holcomb.
    Of the four defendants, only Lee went to trial. Lee initially
    pleaded guilty to both the conspiracy and possession charges,
    on the understanding that the more favorable statutory
    penalties put into place by the Fair Sentencing Act of 2010, 
    124 Stat. 2372
     (“FSA”), would apply at his sentencing. (The district
    court in fact had applied the FSA in sentencing Holcomb
    before Lee pleaded guilty.) But, less than a month after Lee
    No. 12-1718                                                       3
    pleaded guilty, this court ruled in United States v. Fisher, 
    635 F.3d 336
     (7th Cir.), reh’g en banc denied over dissent, 
    646 F.3d 429
    (7th Cir. 2011), that the FSA did not apply to offenses commit-
    ted prior to its enactment. The Supreme Court ultimately ruled
    otherwise the following year, Dorsey v. United States, 
    132 S. Ct. 2321
     (2012), but by that time Lee had been permitted to
    withdraw his guilty plea and had proceeded to trial–twice.
    Lee’s first trial, in June 2011, ended with the district court’s
    declaration of a mistrial after the jury was unable to reach a
    verdict. When Lee was retried the following month, the jury
    found him guilty on both counts of the indictment in which he
    was named: Count One, charging that Lee conspired with Hurt
    to distribute and to possess, with the intent to distribute, more
    than 50 grams of crack cocaine, and Count Four, charging Lee
    with possessing, with the intent to distribute, more than 50
    grams of crack cocaine.
    With the exception of the Rule 404(b) evidence admitted at
    Lee’s second trial, the proof was essentially the same at both
    trials. Hurt was the government’s principal witness, describing
    each of the transactions in which he had engaged with Lee.
    Beyond Hurt’s testimony, the evidence against Lee was, in
    good measure, circumstantial. Phone records established
    telephonic contact between Lee and Hurt consistent with the
    timing of the transactions Hurt recounted: for example, Hurt
    testified that Lee typically called him when he was on his way
    to Springfield to make a delivery of cocaine, and phone records
    confirmed that the two men were in telephonic contact prior to
    the deliveries Hurt described. None of the telephone calls were
    recorded, however. Moreover, although Pickett was wired
    during his transactions with Hurt, Lee was not present during
    4                                                  No. 12-1718
    those transactions, and no other witness was privy to Hurt’s
    interactions with Lee.
    Hurt had begun selling crack cocaine in or about 2006. Hurt
    was paralyzed from the shoulders down and was otherwise
    relying on disability payments for his income. Hurt’s brother
    Clardy typically helped him prepare and package cocaine for
    distribution to his customers; Holcomb, as we have noted, also
    helped Hurt with the sales. At first, Hurt’s supplier was Lee’s
    cousin, Mikey Smith. After Smith was jailed in 2007, Hurt
    turned to other suppliers. Lee eventually became one of them.
    Hurt had known Lee since 2002, but so far as the record
    reveals, Lee had not sold crack cocaine to Hurt prior to the
    2009 sales that Hurt recounted at trial.
    Hurt described for the jury four transactions with Lee that
    occurred in the Summer and Fall of 2009. In late July, Lee sold
    17 ounces of crack to Hurt at a price of $900 an ounce. Lee
    fronted the cocaine to Hurt; Hurt then sold the cocaine to
    customers over the course of a day or two with Holcomb’s
    help; and then Hurt paid Lee from the proceeds. Two weeks
    later, in early August, Lee provided a 13-ounce quantity to
    Hurt for the same price per ounce and was again paid after
    Hurt and Holcomb sold the cocaine to Hurt’s customers. Hurt
    testified that following this second transaction, he turned over
    to Lee all of the proceeds from his sales, leaving nothing for
    himself.
    On the morning of September 1, 2009, Lee dropped off a
    nine-ounce quantity of crack to Hurt at his home. Within a day,
    Hurt and Holcomb had sold the cocaine and paid Lee. Among
    Hurt’s customers that day was Pickett, who recorded his
    No. 12-1718                                                    5
    purchase in his capacity as a confidential informant. When
    Pickett asked Hurt when his supply had arrived, Hurt told him
    he had gotten it that morning. Pickett purchased a half-ounce
    of crack from Hurt at a price of $600; Clardy assisted Hurt with
    the sale. Hurt testified that after he had disposed of all of the
    cocaine supplied by Lee, he once again turned all of the
    proceeds over to Lee, with no profit remaining for himself.
    Pickett made another controlled purchase of cocaine from
    Hurt on September 17. Pickett tried to make the purchase a day
    earlier, but Hurt told him he had no drugs on hand to sell him.
    On the following morning (the 17th), Lee delivered four ounces
    of crack cocaine to Hurt. Hurt and Holcomb again disposed of
    that quantity in a day’s time. Pickett was among their custom-
    ers: he purchased an ounce of crack for a nominal price of
    $1200, and then Hurt then kicked back $100 of the purchase
    price to him. Although Lee was not present in Hurt’s home,
    where Pickett made the purchase, the camera that Pickett was
    wearing captured Lee sitting in the yard of another house that
    Hurt owned just down the alley from Hurt’s residence; and
    Lee’s Ford Taurus was also parked in the vicinity. Hurt
    acknowledged on the witness stand that Lee’s cousin Poncho
    was renovating the other house for Hurt (Lee, in fact, was
    Hurt’s contact for Poncho); and no surveillance agent was ever
    able to see, let alone photograph, Lee transacting narcotics
    business with Hurt. As he walked back to his own vehicle
    following the transaction with Hurt, Pickett had a brief on-
    camera conversation with Lee during which chess and house-
    siding, but not narcotics, were mentioned.
    On December 2, Lee was on his way to Springfield when he
    was pulled over on U.S. Interstate 55 by McLean County
    6                                                   No. 12-1718
    Sheriff’s Deputy Jason Tuttle. The traffic stop was not pre-
    planned and had nothing to do with the investigation of Hurt
    and Lee; Tuttle stopped Lee because the registration on the
    Honda Accord he was driving had been suspended. Lee told
    Tuttle that the car belonged to his goddaughter. The deputy
    led a drug-detecting dog around car, and the dog alerted at the
    passenger door. On the strength of the dog’s alert, the deputy
    and backup officers proceeded to conduct a fairly thorough
    search of the car. While looking through the trunk, which
    Tuttle described as “loaded down” with “just a lot of junk,
    really,” R. 179 at 74, one of the deputies lifted the spare tire,
    without going so far as to remove it, but did not see anything
    there. The search produced no drugs. The car was impounded
    due to the suspended registration; and Lee was dropped off at
    a highway rest area. Lee called Hurt to advise him that he had
    been pulled over and asked him for a ride.
    Lee was stopped a second time later that same day. This
    stop was made as part of the narcotics investigation. After Lee
    called Hurt, Hurt had called Pickett and asked Pickett to pick
    up Hurt and then Lee. Before he picked up Hurt, Pickett called
    drug enforcement agents and told them he was on his way to
    pick up Hurt and Hurt’s supplier. After Pickett had picked up
    both men, an officer stopped the car on the premise of a vehicle
    code violation and, after confirming the identities of the men,
    searched the car. He found no drugs in the car and let the men
    go with a warning. In the course of the stop, however, Lee
    volunteered that he had been stopped earlier that day and that
    his car had been towed. That disclosure led agents to the tow
    yard where the Honda Accord had been taken.
    No. 12-1718                                                     7
    A second search of the car at the tow yard proved more
    fruitful than the first. At the yard, agents walked a narcotics
    dog around the car and, once again, the dog alerted to the
    passenger door. Officers then obtained a warrant to search the
    vehicle. The ensuing search, which took place more than eight
    hours after Lee first was stopped on the Interstate, produced
    a wrinkled black plastic bag that was located behind the spare
    tire. A latent fingerprint matching Lee’s would later be
    discovered on the outside of that bag. Inside of the black plastic
    bag was a clear Ziploc bag containing eight smaller bags, seven
    of which contained one-ounce quantities of crack cocaine and
    the last of which contained a smaller quantity of powder
    cocaine. Collectively, the bags contained 210 grams of crack
    cocaine, worth approximately $21,000. It was that cocaine
    which was the basis for the charge in Count Four of the
    indictment alleging that Lee possessed with the intent to
    distribute in excess of 50 grams of crack cocaine.
    Lee presented no witnesses, but through cross-examination
    and argument, the defense did manage to poke holes in the
    government’s case. Naturally, Lee’s counsel pointed out to the
    jury that, in the absence of evidence verifying Hurt’s testimony
    as to his transactions with Lee, the prosecution’s case de-
    pended to a significant degree upon the believability of Hurt’s
    testimony. Hurt had credibility issues: besides being a cocaine
    dealer who stood to benefit from his testimony against Lee,
    Hurt was a regular and substantial user of marijuana who
    smoked four to five “blunts” daily, and in fact could be seen
    sharing a blunt with Pickett on the video recording of the
    September 1 transaction. Hurt also helped the defense when he
    agreed on cross-examination that he “d[id]n’t remember much
    8                                                   No. 12-1718
    of anything at all about th[e] supposed occasions” on which he
    had purchased cocaine from Lee and that “it was the govern-
    ment that helped [him] remember those occasions … .” R. 180
    at 143. Pickett had issues of his own: aside from being a paid
    informant, he disclosed on the witness stand that he had
    decided to expose Hurt’s drug-dealing after he surmised that
    Hurt had told police where to find him on an outstanding
    warrant. The discovery of cocaine in the Honda Accord that
    Lee was driving on December 2 was, of course, damning by
    itself; but the defense made much of the fact that the cocaine
    was not discovered until many hours after Lee was pulled over
    and the car had been sitting in the tow yard for the better part
    of the day.
    As we have said, the first jury that heard this evidence was
    unable to reach a verdict on either the conspiracy or the
    possession charge against Lee.
    At the outset of the second trial, the government moved
    pursuant to Rule 404(b) to admit evidence that, in 2004, Lee
    had been convicted of possessing more than 15 but less than
    100 grams of cocaine. The government contended that the prior
    conviction was probative of Lee’s knowledge, intent, and
    absence of mistake. In the government’s view, Lee’s defense at
    the first trial demonstrated that those matters were in dispute:
    the defense had denied that Lee knew that there was cocaine
    in the car he was driving on December 2, disclaimed any intent
    to distribute cocaine, and had argued that the cocaine would
    have been found during the first, roadside search of the car if
    in fact it was there at that time, implying that someone else had
    put the cocaine in the trunk of the car after it was impounded.
    Evidence that Lee had previously engaged in cocaine-related
    No. 12-1718                                                       9
    activity “tend[s] to show that [Lee] was familiar with the
    cocaine [business] and was not some innocent bystander
    mistakenly caught up by overzealous law enforcement.” R. 179
    at 5 (quoting United States v. Wilson, 
    31 F.3d 510
    , 515 (7th Cir.
    1994) (in turn quoting United States v. Kreiser, 
    15 F.3d 635
    , 640
    (7th Cir. 1994))); see also United States v. Chavis, 
    429 F.3d 662
    ,
    668 (7th Cir. 2005). Lee opposed the motion. His attorney
    denied having suggested that the drugs in the car had been
    planted, although the clear suggestion in the first trial as well
    as the second was that the cocaine was not present in the trunk
    of the car at the time of the first (roadside) search. See R. 176 at
    47; R. 181 at 110-11. More to the point, she contended that Lee’s
    prior conviction was in truth being offered “to show some kind
    of propensity and [to] tip the balance for a jury in this case,
    because they were unable to get the jury on the evidence that
    they submitted the first time to convict[ ] Mr. Lee.” R. 179 at 9.
    Counsel added, finally, that the prior conviction, for simple
    possession of crack cocaine, was not similar to or close enough
    in time to the charged offense to qualify for admission under
    Rule 404(b).
    After hearing the parties’ arguments, the court granted the
    government’s motion and admitted the evidence without
    explanation: “The bottom line is that the government’s motion
    in limine is going to be allowed and the defendant’s motion in
    limine is going to be denied regarding the Rule of Evidence
    404(b). That will be permitted.” R. 179 at 15. In his opening
    statement, the government’s counsel informed the jury that it
    would hear evidence that Lee had previously been convicted
    of possessing crack cocaine; and counsel explained that Lee’s
    conviction “will be presented not to show that just because he
    10                                                  No. 12-1718
    did it before means he did it this time, it will be presented to
    you for the purpose of establishing his intent to distribute the
    crack cocaine that he possessed, his knowledge that that crack
    cocaine was in the trunk and not there by happenstance, and
    to prove that this was not just some mistake that Mr. Lee was
    at the wrong place at the wrong time.” R. 179 at 58. Subse-
    quently, during the government’s case, the court took formal
    notice of Lee’s prior conviction and instructed the jury that it
    could consider the conviction on the three subjects the govern-
    ment had identified – knowledge, intent, and absence of
    mistake – and for no other purpose. R. 180 at 256-57. In its
    closing argument, the government reiterated the relevance of
    the conviction to Lee’s contention that he had nothing to do
    with the cocaine discovered in the car:
    [T]hat is relevant to show his knowledge that
    cocaine is a controlled substance. It is relevant to
    show his intent to possess cocaine at a later date.
    And it is surely relevant to show that he’s not just
    some fool caught up in overzealous law enforce-
    ment. That he’s not just some person in the wrong
    place at the wrong time.
    R. 181 at 133.
    At the conclusion of the second trial, the jury convicted Lee
    of both the conspiracy and possession charges. Anticipating the
    possibility that the Supreme Court might deem the revised
    statutory penalties specified by the 2010 Fair Sentencing Act
    applicable to defendants, like Lee, who committed narcotics
    offenses prior to the FSA’s enactment but were sentenced after
    the statute came into effect, the court asked the jury to com-
    No. 12-1718                                                              11
    plete a special verdict form making findings that were perti-
    nent to both the pre- and post-FSA sentencing ranges. As
    relevant to the ranges specified by the FSA, the jury found that
    the conspiracy in this case involved more than 280 grams of
    crack cocaine. That finding triggered a minimum statutory
    term of 10 years in prison under the FSA. See § 841(b)(1)(A)(iii).
    Furthermore, because Lee had a prior felony narcotics convic-
    tion, the mandatory minimum prison term was increased to 20
    years. See 
    21 U.S.C. §§ 841
    (b)(1)(A), 8511. The district court
    ordered Lee to serve the minimum statutory term of 20 years.
    II.
    Lee’s lead argument on appeal, and the only one we need
    reach, is that the district court abused its discretion in admit-
    ting into evidence his 2004 conviction for the possession of
    crack cocaine. Although that evidence was nominally admitted
    solely for purposes identified as permissible by Rule 404(b),
    1
    Lee has separately argued in this appeal that once he successfully
    completed the term of supervision to which he was sentenced on his 2004
    conviction, the conviction was dismissed as a matter of Illinois law, and
    therefore it could not trigger the enhanced statutory minimum term of
    imprisonment under section 841(b)(1)(A). However, Lee did not make this
    same point in opposing the admission of his prior conviction at trial
    pursuant to Rule 404(b). We have found it unnecessary to decide whether
    Lee’s prior conviction ceased to be a conviction once Lee successfully
    completed his supervision. For the reasons we articulate below, assuming
    that the conviction remained cognizable as such for purposes of Rule 404(b),
    the district court nonetheless abused its discretion in allowing the
    conviction into evidence. And because we conclude that the erroneous
    admission of the prior conviction entitles Lee to a new trial, we need not
    consider whether the conviction was cognizable for purposes of the
    enhanced penalties specified by section 841(b)(1)(A).
    12                                                 No. 12-1718
    Lee argues that his prior conviction actually was probative of
    his knowledge and intent, and the absence of mistake, only in
    the sense that it established his propensity to commit cocaine-
    related offenses – the very purpose for which Rule 404(b)
    forbids the admission of prior wrongful acts. After reviewing
    the trial record, we are persuaded that he is correct.
    Rule 404(b) prohibits evidence of a defendant’s other
    crimes, wrongs, or acts as proof of his propensity to commit
    the charged offense, but allows such evidence for other
    purposes, including (but not limited to) motive, opportunity,
    intent, preparation, plan, knowledge, identity, absence of
    mistake, or lack of accident. Our precedents have consistently
    stated that evidence of a defendant’s uncharged, wrongful act
    must satisfy four criteria in order to be properly admitted:
    (1) the evidence is directed toward establishing a
    matter in issue other than the defendant's propen-
    sity to commit the crime charged;
    (2) the evidence shows that the other act is similar
    enough and close enough in time to be relevant to
    the matter in issue;
    (3) the evidence is sufficient to support a jury
    finding that the defendant committed the other
    act; and
    (4) the probative value of the evidence is not
    substantially outweighed by the danger of
    unfair prejudice.
    No. 12-1718                                                        13
    See United States v. Shackleford, 
    738 F.2d 776
    , 779 (7th Cir. 1984),
    overruled in part on other grounds by Huddleston v. United States,
    
    485 U.S. 681
    , 
    108 S. Ct. 1496
     (1988); see also, e.g., United States v.
    Gulley, 
    2013 WL 2991794
    , at *5 (7th Cir. June 17, 2013); United
    States v. Howard, 
    692 F.3d 697
    , 703 (7th Cir. 2012); United States
    v. Vargas, 
    689 F.3d 867
    , 875 (7th Cir.), cert. denied, 
    133 S. Ct. 804
    (2012).
    Our recent decision in United States v. Miller, 
    673 F.3d 688
    ,
    697 (7th Cir. 2012), emphasizes the particular importance of the
    first and fourth of these factors in the Rule 404(b) analysis.
    The arguments presented in this case suggest that
    admission of prior drug crimes to prove intent to
    commit present drug crimes has become too
    routine. Closer attention needs to be paid to the
    reasons for using prior drug convictions – to
    lessen the danger that defendants like Miller will
    be convicted because the prosecution invited, and
    the jury likely made, an improper assumption
    about propensity to commit drug crimes.
    
    Id. at 696
    .
    Miller was charged with, inter alia, possessing with the
    intent to distribute in excess of five grams of crack cocaine and
    with possessing a gun in furtherance of a drug crime. These
    charges stemmed from the discovery, in 2008, of crack cocaine,
    packaged for distribution, in one of the bedrooms of a house
    that Miller shared with others. Although personal effects
    belonging to Miller were found in that same bedroom, Miller
    contended that in fact he was not staying in that bedroom and
    that the cocaine was not his. Pursuant to Rule 404(b), the
    14                                                  No. 12-1718
    district court admitted into evidence his prior conviction for
    possessing cocaine with the intent to distribute in 2000 as
    evidence of his intent to distribute cocaine some eight years
    later with respect to the case on trial. We concluded that
    although Miller’s prior conviction had nominally been admit-
    ted for an appropriate purpose–to show Miller’s intent–in
    context it was really only relevant as proof of his propensity to
    distribute drugs, the very purpose that Rule 404(b)(1) declares
    off-limits:
    Here, Miller claimed that the drugs found in the
    shoe box and on the bed were not his, that he was
    in effect an innocent bystander. Witnesses told the
    jury about Miller’s arrest and conviction for
    dealing drugs in 2000. The government defends
    the use of that evidence on the ground that it
    showed his intent to distribute drugs in 2008.
    How, exactly, does Miller’s prior drug dealing
    conviction in 2000 suggest that he intended to deal
    drugs in 2008? When the question is framed this
    way, the answer becomes obvious, even though
    implicit: “He intended to do it before, ladies and
    gentlemen, so he must have intended to do it
    again.” That is precisely the forbidden propensity
    inference.
    
    673 F.3d at 699
    .
    Miller cautions judges evaluating evidence proffered under
    Rule 404(b) to consider first the extent to which a defendant
    has genuinely placed at issue the specific matter that the
    evidence is being offered to establish. 
    Id. at 696-97
    . Simply
    No. 12-1718                                                       15
    because a subject like intent is formally at issue when the
    defendant has claimed innocence and the government is
    obliged to prove his intent as an element of his guilt does not
    automatically open the door to proof of the defendant’s other
    wrongful acts for purposes of establishing his intent. 
    Id. at 697
    .
    The court still must weigh the probative worth of the evidence
    against its potential for prejudice: thus, for example, “intent
    becomes more relevant, and evidence tending to prove intent
    becomes more probative, when the defense actually works to
    deny intent, joining the issue by contesting it.” Id.; cf. 
    id. at 696
    (“Miller has never argued that the bags of drugs–some of
    which had price tags attached–were not intended for distribu-
    tion.”); 
    id. at 698
     (“[Miller] did not argue that he intended to
    consume rather than sell the drugs, or that he lacked knowl-
    edge of cocaine or how to sell it.”). Conversely, when the
    defense theory of the case has nothing to do with intent–when,
    for example, the defendant flatly denies that the drugs were
    his, as Miller did–other crimes evidence offered to establish his
    intent will have much less relevance, such that its probative
    worth is more likely to be outweighed by the inherent risk of
    prejudice that such evidence poses to the defendant. 
    Id. at 698
    .
    Second, assuming that the proffered other-acts evidence is
    relevant on a contested point, the court must consider the chain
    of logic by which the jury is being asked to glean the defen-
    dant’s knowledge, intent, etc. from proof of his prior misdeeds.
    
    Id. at 697-98
    . “Unless there is a persuasive and specific answer
    to th[at] question … then the real answer is almost certainly
    that the evidence is probative only of propensity.” 
    Id. at 699
    .
    This turned out to be true in Miller when we considered how
    proof of Miller’s prior narcotics conviction bore on his intent to
    16                                                    No. 12-1718
    commit the charged offenses: practically speaking, the only
    way in which the conviction was probative of Miller’s later
    state of mind was in the sense that it established his history of
    narcotics dealing and thus the likelihood that he was repeating
    his prior behavior as charged in the present case. 
    Id. at 699, 700
    .
    After finding that Miller’s prior conviction had been
    improperly admitted pursuant to Rule 404(b), we went on to
    conclude that the error prejudiced him. We stated that the
    relevant inquiry in that regard was “whether an average juror
    would find the prosecution’s case significantly less persuasive
    without the improper evidence.” 
    Id.
     at 700 (citing United States
    v. Hicks, 
    635 F.3d 1063
    , 1073-74 (7th Cir. 2011)). Although the
    government’s case against Miller was strong, it was not
    overwhelming. Id. at 700-01. Miller had mounted a “vigorous
    defense,” and the government in turn had “attacked the
    credibility of the defense witnesses and the defense theory,” id.
    at 701. “By piling Miller’s prior drug conviction on top of what
    was otherwise a strong case, the government distracted the
    inquiry from what happened in April 2008 and invited the jury
    to decide guilt for the wrong reasons.” Id. We therefore
    reversed Miller’s conviction and remanded for a new trial.
    With Miller as our template, we turn to the factual context
    in which Lee’s prior drug conviction was introduced against
    him at trial. His conviction was formally offered as proof of his
    knowledge and intent, and lack of mistake. We consider first
    whether and in what way there was a genuine dispute as to
    any of these subjects at trial, such that the prior conviction was
    truly relevant. And we next consider the chain of reasoning by
    which the jury was invited to infer Lee’s knowledge, intent,
    No. 12-1718                                                     17
    and absence of mistake from his prior conviction. For all of the
    same reasons that we articulated in Miller, we conclude that
    Lee’s prior conviction was improperly admitted in this case,
    because it was probative on these topics primarily if not
    exclusively in the sense that it demonstrated his propensity to
    commit narcotics offenses.
    We begin by noting that the district court, in admitting the
    evidence of Lee’s prior conviction, did not engage in an on-the-
    record evaluation of the purposes for which the government
    offered the evidence, the relevance of Lee’s conviction to those
    purposes, or of the prejudice posed by the conviction as
    balanced against its probative worth. This is unfortunate for
    more than one reason. First, a statement of the judge’s rationale
    always facilitates our appellate review of discretionary
    decisions like the decision to admit or exclude evidence. See,
    e.g., United States v. Knope, 
    655 F.3d 647
    , 658-59 (7th Cir. 2011),
    cert. denied, 
    132 S. Ct. 1060
     (2012). Having such a record is
    especially important in the Rule 404(b) context, given that the
    trial judge is necessarily much closer to the case, the evidence,
    and the parties’ respective theories, and is therefore better able
    to evaluate the ramifications of the proffered evidence and to
    determine whether and why that evidence is relevant without
    posing an undue risk of prejudice to the defendant. United
    States v. Beasley, 
    809 F.2d 1273
    , 1278-79 (7th Cir. 1987). Second,
    articulating the rationale for admitting other-acts evidence also
    helps to ensure that the district judge is genuinely exercising
    his discretion and observing the limits of Rule 404(b) by
    thinking through the relevance of and the potential prejudice
    posed by the proffered evidence. Our cases have long stressed
    the need for careful evaluation of other-acts evidence. See, e.g.,
    18                                                    No. 12-1718
    United States v. Phillips, 
    401 F.2d 301
    , 305-06 (7th Cir. 1968);
    United States v. DeCastris, 
    798 F.2d 261
    , 265 (7th Cir. 1986);
    Beasley, 
    809 F.2d at 1279
    ; United States v. Nagib, 
    56 F.3d 798
    , 806-
    07 (7th Cir. 1995); United States v. Ciesiolka, 
    614 F.3d 347
    , 357-59
    (7th Cir. 2010); United States v. Albiola, 
    624 F.3d 431
    , 438-39 (7th
    Cir. 2010); Knope, 
    655 F.3d at 658-59
    . As we stated in Beasley:
    [T]here must be a principled exercise of discretion.
    The district judge must both identify the exception
    that applies to the evidence in question and evalu-
    ate whether the evidence, although relevant and
    within the exception, is sufficiently probative to
    make tolerable the risk that jurors will act on the
    basis of emotion or an inference via the blackening
    of the defendant’s character … .
    
    809 F.2d at 1279
    ; see also DeCastris, 
    798 F.2d at 265
     (“This
    delicate balance of probative force against undue prejudice
    calls for all of the judge’s skills. The judge must enter the mind
    of the jurors and appreciate how a piece of evidence fits … .”).
    Certainly the limiting instruction that the court gave in this
    case identifies the purposes for which it admitted Lee’s prior
    conviction into evidence. See United States v. Wright, 
    943 F.2d 748
    , 751 (7th Cir. 1991) (citing United States v. Binkley, 
    903 F.2d 1130
    , 1136 (7th Cir. 1990), abrogated on other grounds by Abuel-
    hawa v. United States, 
    556 U.S. 816
    , 
    129 S. Ct. 2102
     (2009)). But,
    as our decision in Miller emphasizes, identifying a facially valid
    purpose for the admission of the evidence is where the court’s
    duty begins, not where it ends. 
    673 F.3d at 696-97
    . When one
    looks beyond the purposes for which the evidence is being
    offered and considers what inferences the jury is being asked
    No. 12-1718                                                      19
    to draw from that evidence, and by what chain of logic, it will
    sometimes become clear, as it did in Miller, that despite the
    label, the jury is essentially being asked to rely on the evidence
    as proof of the defendant’s propensity to commit the charged
    offense.
    Lee’s defense was quite similar to Miller’s: although the
    cocaine was discovered in the trunk of a car that Lee was
    driving, Lee maintained that the car was not his (it was not
    registered in his name) and Lee posited that the cocaine was
    not his either. In effect, Lee, like Miller, was claiming to have
    been an innocent bystander. Thus, Lee was not placing his
    knowledge or intent into specific dispute by contending, for
    example, that he knew there was an off-white, chunky sub-
    stance in the car but he did not realize that was what crack
    cocaine looked like, or that he knowingly possessed the cocaine
    but solely for his own personal use and with no intent to
    distribute it. See Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 696, 698
    ; Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1070
    ; cf. United States v. Harris, 
    587 F.3d 861
    , 865 (7th Cir. 2009)
    (defendant admitted holding drugs, but contended that he did
    so for someone else with no intent to distribute drugs himself).
    Nor was Lee claiming to have made a mistake in the usual
    sense. He was not suggesting, for example, that he had
    grabbed someone else’s bag (in which the cocaine was discov-
    ered) and put it into the trunk of the car thinking it was his. Lee
    effectively did posit that he was in the wrong place at the
    wrong time, as the government points out – that is the gist of
    any innocent bystander defense – but he did not contend that
    he took some action inadvertently or unwittingly. See Hicks,
    
    635 F.3d at 1070
     (“Hicks never contended that he did not know
    that the substance for sale was crack cocaine or any other
    20                                                   No. 12-1718
    controlled substance.”); Chavis, 
    429 F.3d at 673
     (Cudahy, J.,
    concurring) (citing “I thought they [the drugs] were cough
    drops” as an example of a defense of mistake). To the extent
    the government was offering the evidence in order to prove a
    lack of mistake on its part, rather than Lee’s, this was not a
    proper ground for admission under Rule 404(b). As the Sixth
    Circuit has explained:
    [A]bsence of mistake “on behalf of the govern-
    ment” is not a legitimate basis to admit other acts
    evidence under Rule 404(b). Rather, it is a restate-
    ment of the primary reason for which the evidence
    is not admissible; that is, to suggest that the defen-
    dant is guilty (the government is not mistaken)
    because he committed the same or other crimes
    before.
    United States v. Merriweather, 78 F.3d at 1070, 1077 (6th Cir.
    1996); see also United States v. Webb, 
    548 F.3d 547
    , 548 (7th Cir.
    2008) (“As for ‘absence of mistake’: how does a conviction
    show this except via the prohibited inference that someone who
    distributes drugs once is likely to do it again?”) (emphasis in
    original).
    So in all three respects–knowledge, intent, and absence of
    mistake – the 404(b) evidence had limited relevance (and in the
    case of mistake, none) to begin with. Lee did not pursue the
    type of defense which would have raised particular ques-
    tions–about what he knew, what his purpose was, and whether
    his proximity to the cocaine was inadvertent–that his prior
    cocaine conviction might help the jury to answer. Certainly, by
    denying that he had anything to do with the cocaine, Lee
    No. 12-1718                                                     21
    required the government to prove each and every element of
    the charged offenses, among them that Lee knowingly pos-
    sessed cocaine with the intent to distribute. But as we empha-
    sized in Miller, the government’s routine obligation to establish
    something like a defendant’s intent does not automatically
    open the door to Rule 404(b) evidence. 
    673 F.3d at 697
    . A court
    still must consider not only the extent to which a particular
    subject is genuinely in dispute, but also whether and how the
    proffered evidence of a defendant’s prior misdeeds sheds light
    on that subject. 
    Id. at 697-99
    . It is to these questions which we
    now turn.
    When we consider how Lee’s prior conviction would have
    factored into the jury’s evaluation of the charges in this case,
    there is a threshold point to be made about the nature of the
    prior conviction. As in Miller, Lee’s prior conviction was
    offered to establish his intent. But, in contrast to Miller, Lee’s
    prior conviction was for straight possession of crack cocaine,
    not possession with the intent to distribute. That being the case,
    it is not obvious how the prior conviction would shed light on
    Lee’s intent. Miller recognizes that a prior conviction for
    possession with the intent to distribute might help to show that
    his later intent vis-à-vis the controlled substance in question
    was likewise to distribute it rather than to keep it for his
    personal use. 
    673 F.3d at 698
    ; see also Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1070
    ;
    Chavis, 
    supra,
     
    429 F.3d at
    668 (citing United States v. Jones, 
    389 F.3d 753
    , 757-58 (7th Cir. 2004), judgment vacated on other
    grounds, 
    545 U.S. 1125
    , 
    125 S. Ct. 2948
     (2005), and United States
    v. Puckett, 
    405 F.3d 589
    , 596 (7th Cir. 2005)). Lee’s prior convic-
    tion for possession only does not serve that purpose. Perhaps
    there is another chain of logic by which it might shed light on
    22                                                 No. 12-1718
    his intent. But if so, the government never articulated it; the
    government simply argued, without elaboration, that the prior
    conviction established his intent five years later. This alone
    raises the possibility that the real relevance of Lee’s prior
    conviction lay in its proof of his propensity to commit cocaine-
    related offenses. See Chavis, 
    429 F.3d at 673
     (Cudahy, J.,
    concurring).
    And when we consider what the jury would have surmised
    about Lee’s knowledge and intent, and the absence of mistake
    on the part of the government, from his prior conviction for the
    possession of crack cocaine, it becomes even more clear that his
    conviction was relevant only in the sense of establishing his
    propensity to engage in cocaine-related offenses. This is
    apparent from the government’s argument below for the
    admission of Lee’s prior conviction which has been reproduced
    in its appellate brief:
    Given the theory of defense, which included the
    suggestion that someone planted drugs in the
    Honda to frame Lee, the defendant’s 2004 convic-
    tion shows that he was familiar with the cocaine
    business and was not some hapless fool mistak-
    enly caught up in some overzealous law enforce-
    ment action.
    Gov’t Br. 26 (brackets and internal quotation marks omitted).
    This rationale makes plain that the jury was being invited to
    infer that because Lee was involved with crack cocaine before,
    he must have been so on this occasion as well. As we have
    discussed, Lee’s defense did not specifically place his knowl-
    edge or intent in dispute by contending, for example, that he
    No. 12-1718                                                                 23
    did not know anything about how the cocaine trade worked or
    that while he possessed the cocaine he had no intent to sell it.
    Cf. United States v. Hurn, 
    496 F.3d 784
    , 787-88 (7th Cir. 2007)
    (defendant conceded knowledge there were drugs and cash in
    home he shared with others, but claimed not to know how
    much cash or what type of drugs and argued he had falsely
    confessed to ownership of drugs and cash out of fear of
    retaliation by true drug dealers)2. His was a defense of com-
    plete innocence which posited that he had nothing whatsoever
    to do with the cocaine discovered in the trunk of the car he was
    driving. So when the jury’s attention was called to Lee’s prior
    conviction, the inferences it was being asked to draw were not
    permissible inferences about his knowledge and intent – for
    example, that given his prior contact with crack cocaine, he
    knew what crack cocaine looked like or how it was packaged,
    or that a quantity as large as the one discovered in the trunk of
    the car would be one that he meant to distribute rather than
    consume3. Indeed, the government never suggested in argu
    2
    The notion that Lee’s prior conviction established his familiarity with the
    cocaine “business” is, in any case, a stretch, as the mere fact of his
    conviction for possession reveals nothing about how Lee came to possess
    the cocaine or what his purpose was.
    3
    Nor was this a case in which code words associated with the narcotic trade
    were being used and the defendant claimed not to know what they meant,
    or the defendant was contending that his seemingly incriminating behavior
    (e.g., exchanging small plastic baggies for money at a street corner known
    for drug dealing) was in fact not evidence of his intent to distribute
    narcotics. See United States v. Betts, 
    16 F.3d 748
    , 757-58 (7th Cir. 1994),
    abrogated on other grounds by United States v. Mills, 
    122 F.3d 346
    , 349-50 (7th
    (continued...)
    24                                                     No. 12-1718
    ment to the jury what it might specifically infer about Lee’s
    state of mind from his prior experience with crack cocaine.
    Instead, as the passage quoted above reveals, the jury was
    asked to infer from Lee’s prior conviction that the drugs
    discovered in the trunk of the car were not planted there by the
    government, that he was not an unwitting driver who had no
    idea of what was in the trunk of the car, and that he was not an
    innocent person who was unjustly accused simply because he
    was discovered in the wrong place at the wrong time. Each
    aspect of this theory relies on Lee’s conviction for what it tells
    us about his propensity to commit cocaine-related offenses.
    Thus: (1) It is unlikely that the government (or anyone else)
    planted the cocaine in the car, because Lee committed a
    cocaine-related offense before. (2) It is unlikely that he was
    ignorant of the cocaine in the trunk, because he has been
    convicted of possessing cocaine previously. (3) And it is
    unlikely that he was so unfortunate as to be a “hapless fool” in
    the wrong place at the wrong time, because he has possessed
    cocaine before and therefore likely was not an innocent
    bystander on this occasion. The fact that Lee had some famil-
    iarity with crack cocaine (if not the cocaine “business”) as
    demonstrated by his prior conviction does not demonstrate
    that the cocaine was not planted in the trunk of the car, that
    Lee knew it was there, and that he was not an innocent
    bystander, except as evidence of his propensity to commit
    cocaine-related offenses: he did it before, so he must have done
    it this time as well. See Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 699
    ; Jones, 
    389 F.3d at 3
    (...continued)
    Cir. 1997).
    No. 12-1718                                                     25
    757; United States v. Betts, 
    supra n.3
    , 
    16 F.3d at 758-59
    ; see also
    Chavis, 
    429 F.3d at 673
     (Cudahy, J., concurring) (“The prior
    convictions tell the jury in fairly blatant terms that a defendant
    is not to be believed when he says the drugs were not his
    because he has done it before.”).
    The limiting instructions that the court gave, both when the
    prior conviction was admitted into evidence and in the final
    jury instructions (and, for that matter, the prosecutor’s own
    observation in opening statements that the conviction was not
    being admitted to show “that just because [Lee] did it before
    means he did it this time,” R. 179 at 58), did not obviate the
    problem. The instructions advised the jury that it could
    consider Lee’s prior conviction only insofar as it bore on Lee’s
    “knowledge, intent, and absence of mistake,” but as we have
    discussed, the only sense in which the conviction was proba-
    tive of those subjects was as proof of his propensity to commit
    the charged cocaine offenses. The instruction therefore did
    nothing to prevent the jury from relying on the conviction for
    the very purpose that Rule 404(b)(1) declares off-limits.
    As the government reminds us, a number of our decisions
    have cited the defendant’s assertion of an innocent-bystander
    defense as a reason (if not the reason) why the admission of a
    defendant’s prior bad acts was appropriate, see, e.g., United
    States v. Vargas, 
    552 F.3d 550
    , 555 (7th Cir. 2008) (coll. cases);
    but our holdings in Miller and today in this case should make
    clear that neither the nature of a charge nor the nature of a
    defense automatically renders proof of a defendant’s other
    crimes or bad acts admissible. See also Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at
    1069-
    71. A court is always bound to consider how the proffered
    26                                                   No. 12-1718
    evidence bears on the defense theory, and to exclude the
    evidence if rather than supplying insight as to what the
    defendant knew or what his purpose was, for example, its true
    worth lies in exposing his inclination to commit the charged
    offense and in that way to rebut a claim of innocence. At least
    some of the cases in which we have cited an innocent-by-
    stander defense as justification for the admission of Rule 404(b)
    evidence may be distinguished on the ground that the evidence
    was indeed probative of the defendant’s knowledge or intent
    in a non-propensity way. See, e.g., Vargas, 552 F.3d at 555-56
    (prior instances in which defendant transported drugs con-
    cealed under loads of produce in refrigerated semi-trailers was
    probative of his knowledge that he was doing so on charged
    occasion, despite his contention that he was unaware of secret
    compartment in which drugs were found); United States v.
    Kreiser, 
    supra,
     
    15 F.3d at 640-41
     (evidence as to prior cocaine
    transactions established that, as with charged transaction,
    defendant worked with a partner, partner directed buyer to
    retrieve cocaine from automobile linked to defendant, and
    defendant “hovered in the background while awaiting the
    completion of the deal”; evidence was therefore admissible to
    establish defendant’s knowledge, intent, and motive with
    respect to charged transaction and to defeat any inference that
    his proximity to cocaine on charged occasion was unwitting).
    But to the extent that any of our prior cases conveyed an
    impression that an innocent-bystander defense necessarily
    opens the door to evidence of a defendant’s prior bad acts, it
    should by now be clear that any such impression is mistaken.
    Miller renewed the admonition we made some 25 years earlier
    in Beasley, that a district court must not only identify a purpose
    No. 12-1718                                                    27
    for which Rule 404(b) authorizes the admission of other-acts
    evidence, but carefully evaluate whether and how the evidence
    is probative on that point and then assure itself that the
    probative value of the evidence is not substantially outweighed
    by the risk that the jury will consider the evidence as proof of
    the defendant’s propensity to commit the crime charged. 
    809 F.2d at 1279
    . Perhaps some of our cases may be faulted for
    summarily approving the admission of prior-acts evidence to
    defeat a defendant’s contention that he was an innocent
    bystander to the charged crime, without making clear how,
    other than by propensity, the prior acts tended to establish the
    defendant’s knowledge and/or intent. But Miller has returned
    us to the path that Beasley and earlier courses charted. If, as in
    Miller, the prior acts are nominally admitted for a proper
    purpose, but in context are really probative only in the sense
    that they establish the defendant’s propensity to commit the
    charged offense, then we will find the admission of the
    evidence to be erroneous.
    For the reasons we have discussed, the district court
    therefore abused its discretion in allowing Lee’s prior convic-
    tion into evidence. Rule 52(a) of the Federal Rules of Criminal
    Procedure demands that we disregard any error that did not
    affect Lee’s substantial rights. This requires us to consider
    whether the error affected the outcome of the trial. See, e.g.,
    United States v. Wysinger, 
    683 F.3d 784
    , 803-04 (7th Cir. 2012)
    (quoting United States v. Lee, 
    413 F.3d 622
    , 627 (7th Cir. 2005)).
    More concretely, we must ask “whether an average juror
    would find the prosecution’s case significantly less persuasive
    without the improper evidence.” Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 700
    ; see also
    Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1073-74
    .
    28                                                  No. 12-1718
    We conclude that the government’s case against Lee, absent
    proof of his prior conviction, would be significantly less
    persuasive to the average juror. To be sure, the government’s
    case was strong. Hurt, Lee’s customer and alleged co-conspira-
    tor, described the four instances in the Summer and Fall of
    2009 in which he had purchased crack cocaine from Hurt for
    resale. His testimony was corroborated in part by records
    which established telephonic contact between Hurt and Lee in
    advance of these transactions, and, to a much lesser extent, by
    Pickett’s recorded conversations with Hurt (as when Hurt told
    Pickett that his supplier had just delivered the cocaine to him).
    Moreover, in December 2009, Lee was stopped while driving
    a car in which over 50 grams of crack cocaine were later
    discovered–with his fingerprint on the wrapping. Nonetheless,
    as we have noted, there were openings in the government’s
    case that the defense could and did exploit. Because Lee was
    never captured on tape discussing the sale of cocaine to Hurt
    or handing the cocaine to him, the case depended in large part
    on the credibility of Hurt’s testimony. As Lee’s co-defendant,
    Hurt suffered from the same credibility deficits of all accompli-
    ces turned prosecution witnesses, which Lee’s attorney laid
    bare to the jury. He also had a drug problem. Hurt’s testimony
    that he did not make money on two of his four transactions
    with Lee raised an eyebrow, given that he was in the cocaine
    business to supplement his income. More importantly, Lee’s
    attorney wrested from Hurt concessions that he “d[id]n’t
    remember much of anything at all about th[e] supposed
    occasions” on which he had purchased cocaine for Lee and that
    “it was the government that helped [him] remember those
    occasions … .” R. 180 at 143. For his part, Pickett admitted that
    No. 12-1718                                                    29
    he initiated the investigation of Hurt and Lee out of a desire to
    seek vengeance for Hurt’s perceived betrayal. And the Decem-
    ber discovery of cocaine in the automobile Lee was driving
    proved a two-edged sword: despite a relatively thorough
    search of the car’s trunk at the time of the stop, the cocaine was
    not unearthed until a more complete search hours later,
    opening the door to Lee’s contention that the drugs were
    placed there by someone else after the car was towed. Addi-
    tionally, the car Lee was driving was not registered to him, the
    trunk was jammed with miscellaneous clothing and other
    items, and Lee actually volunteered to the trooper who
    conducted the second stop that he had been stopped and the
    car towed earlier that same day, a disclosure that was arguably
    consistent with his proclaimed ignorance about what was in
    the trunk.
    Certainly a reasonable jury could have convicted Lee on
    this evidence. But the evidence of his prior conviction, and the
    way in which the jury was invited to consider that conviction,
    gave the government substantial ammunition to defeat the
    defense suggestions that the drugs in the car had been planted
    there and that the government’s case otherwise rested on a
    witness (Hurt) whose credibility was less than sterling. As we
    have discussed, the jury was urged to consider Lee’s prior
    conviction as proof that he was not an innocent bystander
    discovered in the wrong place at the wrong time–in other
    words, the jury was being asked to evaluate the case based not
    on what the evidence showed Lee was doing at the time of the
    charged offense, but rather based on what his conviction five
    years earlier showed about his propensity to commit crack
    cocaine offenses. As we put it in Miller, “By piling [Lee’s] prior
    30                                                   No. 12-1718
    drug conviction on top of what was otherwise a strong case,
    the government distracted the inquiry from what happened in
    [2009] and invited the jury to decide guilt for the wrong
    reasons.“ 
    673 F.3d at 701
    . We cannot say that the admission of
    the prior conviction was harmless.
    Lee is therefore entitled to a new trial. Lee has raised a
    number of other issues related to the special verdict form
    submitted to the jury and to his sentence. However, because
    we are reversing Lee’s conviction, we find it unnecessary to
    decide these issues.
    III.
    For the reasons set forth above, the district court abused its
    discretion in admitting Lee’s prior conviction into evidence at
    trial pursuant to Rule 404(b), and the error was not harmless.
    We therefore REVERSE the judgment of conviction and
    REMAND the case to the district court for further proceedings
    consistent with this opinion.