United States v. Harvey Robinson , 724 F.3d 878 ( 2013 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 12-3874
    U NITED S TATES OF A MERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    H ARVEY R OBINSON,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 11 CR 552—Charles R. Norgle, Judge.
    A RGUED A PRIL 22, 2013—D ECIDED JULY 31, 2013
    Before W OOD , T INDER, and H AMILTON, Circuit Judges.
    W OOD , Circuit Judge. Harvey Robinson was asleep on
    his grandmother’s living room sofa when Chicago
    police officers conducted an early-morning search of
    her apartment. They were looking for evidence that
    Robinson was selling marijuana from the premises. After
    a thorough search, police officers found less than two
    grams of marijuana, but they also recovered a loaded
    revolver lying in a laundry basket by the front door.
    2                                               No. 12-3874
    According to police officers, Robinson twice admit-
    ted—at the time of the gun’s discovery and during a
    later stationhouse interrogation—that the revolver was
    his; Robinson denies making such statements. After
    lengthy deliberations a jury convicted Robinson of pos-
    session of a firearm by a felon, in violation of 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1).
    On appeal Robinson raises numerous issues, only
    three of which require resolution here. He argues first
    that the revolver should have been suppressed because
    the warrant authorizing the search was not supported
    by probable cause. Next, he urges that the district
    court should have conducted a Franks hearing to assess
    whether police officers knowingly or recklessly sub-
    mitted false information in support of the warrant ap-
    plication. Finally, he contends that the court committed
    reversible error by refusing to give a requested
    limiting instruction about his prior felony conviction.
    Robinson’s first two arguments are unavailing, but
    because the district court erred by failing to give a
    proper limiting instruction and that error was not harm-
    less, his conviction must be vacated.
    I
    Robinson came to the attention of Chicago police
    officers through a tip provided by an anonymous infor-
    mant, referred to in court filings only as “John / Jane Doe.”
    (We will use the masculine pronoun for convenience.)
    According to the search warrant complaint, Doe and an
    individual named “Tookie” had known one another for
    No. 12-3874                                                3
    approximately eight months. In September 2010, Doe
    said that he bought marijuana from Tookie approxi-
    mately one dozen times, with each sale occurring
    inside Tookie’s first-floor apartment at 1453 S. Springfield.
    During the final transaction, which occurred on
    September 30, 2010, Doe noticed that Tookie had several
    more large bags of marijuana on a bookshelf in the hall-
    way. In order to confirm that the leafy green
    substance Tookie provided was, in fact, marijuana (and
    perhaps for his own recreation), Doe smoked some of
    the goods purchased that day before talking to
    police officers.
    Later that afternoon, City of Chicago police officer
    Griselda Elizondo took Doe past 1453 S. Springfield in a
    police vehicle. Doe confirmed that this was the apart-
    ment building where Doe purchased marijuana from
    Tookie. Elizondo then showed Doe photographs from
    a Chicago police database, and Doe identified a picture
    of the defendant, known by Chicago police to use
    the nickname “Tookie,” as his marijuana-selling acquain-
    tance. As explained in greater depth below, however,
    the precise method by which this identification took
    place is unclear from the record, and such details are
    critical in assessing the probative value of Doe’s iden-
    tification of Robinson.
    Doe and Elizondo then appeared before a judge of
    the Circuit Court of Cook County, making themselves
    available for questioning and reciting the facts sum-
    marized above in a sworn complaint. No transcript of this
    proceeding appears in the record, and there is no indica-
    4                                             No. 12-3874
    tion that the court asked Doe any questions. Rather, the
    judge found that the complaint “state[d] sufficient facts
    to show probable cause” and issued a search warrant
    for Harvey Robinson, a.k.a. “Tookie,” and the first-floor
    apartment at 1453 S. Springfield.
    Shortly before 6:00 the next morning, nine or ten
    Chicago police officers conducted the planned search.
    Present at the time were Robinson, his grandmother
    (who opened the door for the police), his uncle and
    aunt, and his aunt’s boyfriend. Sergeant Ronald Blas, the
    “search team supervisor,” testified that he was the last
    police officer to enter the premises. Apparently, he was
    the first to notice a large silver revolver (a .44-caliber
    Ruger Super Redhawk) lying on top of a laundry basket
    immediately next to the front door (see photograph, post
    at 19). After noticing the gun, Blas walked over to Robin-
    son, who had been asleep on a sofa in the dining room,
    read Robinson his Miranda rights, and asked Robinson “if
    there was anything in the residence that shouldn’t be
    [t]here.” According to Blas, Robinson answered either,
    “Yes, that’s my gun,” or “The gun that’s in the laundry
    basket.”
    Robinson filed a pre-trial motion seeking to suppress
    the gun. The court indicated that there likely was
    probable cause supporting the search warrant, though
    it stopped short of making such a determination.
    Instead, it held that suppression was improper because
    the officers were entitled to rely on the warrant in
    good faith.
    No. 12-3874                                                5
    After the early morning search, Robinson was taken to
    a nearby police station, where he was interrogated
    by Elizondo and another Chicago police officer, Nina
    Moore. At trial, Moore and Elizondo both testified
    that Elizondo advised Robinson of his Miranda rights
    a second time, after which Robinson reconfirmed
    that the gun belonged to him. The officers recalled that
    Robinson stated that he purchased the gun several
    months earlier after overhearing two people discussing
    the weapon at a gas station near the intersection of
    West 111th and South State Streets. Robinson (they con-
    tinued) admitted that he bought the gun for $200 from
    the owner inside a nearby Wendy’s restaurant soon after.
    Robinson’s wife and grandmother testified for the
    defense. Both stated that they had never seen Robinson
    with a gun, and that they did not believe that the
    recovered revolver was his. Robinson’s grandmother
    also testified that her daughter’s boyfriend, who was
    staying in the apartment at the time of the search, had
    a criminal history. On cross-examination, the govern-
    ment elicited some minor concessions from the
    witnesses: Robinson’s wife acknowledged that Robinson
    used to hang out on Chicago’s South Side, in the
    general vicinity of W. 111th St. and S. State St., and Robin-
    son’s grandmother confirmed that she heard one of
    the officers announce during the search that he had
    discovered a gun. Robinson did not testify.
    Before closing arguments, the parties agreed on the
    following jury instruction, which was modeled
    on Seventh Circuit Pattern Instruction 3.04, addressing
    6                                             No. 12-3874
    Robinson’s stipulation that he had a prior felony convic-
    tion:
    You have heard evidence that prior to October 1, 2010,
    defendant Harvey Robinson was convicted of a
    felony offense. You may consider this conviction on
    the question of whether the government has
    proved that, prior to October 1, 2010, the defendant
    had been convicted of a crime that was punishable
    by a term of imprisonment of more than one year.
    You should consider this evidence only for this
    limited purpose.
    When the court instructed the jury orally, however, it
    left off the final sentence (“You should consider this
    evidence only for this purpose.”). Both Robinson and the
    government immediately flagged the omission, and
    Robinson urged the court to recall the jury to give
    the complete limiting instruction orally. The court origi-
    nally explained that it failed to read the final sentence
    because it thought the limiting instruction was proper
    only if Robinson had taken the stand in his own de-
    fense. Apparently reconsidering this position, the
    court then expressed concern that recalling the jury
    would draw undue attention to a single instruction.
    Ultimately the court refused Robinson’s request, but
    it emphasized that the jury would receive a complete
    set of the written instructions as they deliberated.
    The jury met for almost five hours before asking to
    adjourn for the day. The court granted this request and
    instructed the jury to “reread all instructions” before
    they resumed their work. On the next day of delibera-
    No. 12-3874                                               7
    tions, the jury met for another five hours, at which point
    they signaled that they were having trouble reaching
    consensus. Again, the court told the jurors to “reread
    all instructions and continue to deliberate.” About an
    hour later, the jury returned a verdict of guilty. Robinson
    was sentenced to ten years in prison.
    II
    We turn first to Robinson’s argument that the gun
    should have been suppressed because it was seized
    pursuant to a search warrant that was not supported by
    probable cause. We give no special weight to the
    district court’s decision in assessing whether the facts
    add up to probable cause, but we do afford “great defer-
    ence” to the conclusion of the judge who issued the
    warrant. United States v. Carson, 
    582 F.3d 827
    , 831 (7th
    Cir. 2009) (citing United States v. McIntire, 
    516 F.3d 576
    ,
    578 (7th Cir. 2008)).
    An issuing magistrate must “make a practical, common-
    sense decision whether, given all the circumstances set
    forth in the affidavit before [the court], including the
    ‘veracity’ and ‘basis of knowledge’ of persons sup-
    plying hearsay information, there is a fair probability that
    contraband or evidence of a crime will be found in
    a particular place.” Illinois v. Gates, 
    462 U.S. 213
    , 238
    (1983). Where, as here, an informant supplies the infor-
    mation contained in the affidavit, several factors
    inform our analysis: first, “the extent to which police
    have corroborated the informant’s statements”; second,
    “the degree to which the informant has acquired knowl-
    8                                             No. 12-3874
    edge of the events through firsthand observation”; third,
    “the amount of detail in the affidavit”; fourth, “the
    interval between the time of events that gave rise to
    the need for a search warrant and that of the police
    officer’s application for the warrant”; fifth, “whether
    the informant testified at the probable cause hearing.”
    Carson, 
    582 F.3d at 832
     (citations omitted).
    In challenging the issuing judge’s finding of
    probable cause, Robinson emphasizes that the warrant
    application contains no indication that “John / Jane Doe”
    had provided credible tips to police in the past, or that
    Elizondo had reason to believe that Doe was a reliable
    source of information. Indeed, it is unclear whether
    Elizondo knew of the informant at all before October 30,
    2010, and the affidavit does not explain why Doe saw
    fit to give such self-incriminating information to Chicago
    police that afternoon. Under the Aguilar-Spinelli frame-
    work that guided probable cause determinations before
    Gates, these omissions might have doomed the warrant,
    since the “veracity” of anonymous tips needed to be
    supported by some assurance that the tip was credible
    and reliable. See Gates, 
    462 U.S. at
    229 n.4. Although
    these considerations remain “highly relevant” under the
    more flexible “totality-of-the-circumstances” approach
    endorsed in Gates, they no longer dictate a finding that
    the warrant lacked probable cause. 
    Id. at 230
    .
    The government points to other information con-
    tained in the affidavit that supports the issuing magis-
    trate’s probable cause finding. For example, the basis
    of Doe’s knowledge was well developed. Doe provided
    No. 12-3874                                              9
    a first-hand account of purchasing specific quantities
    of marijuana from Robinson and described the interior of
    Robinson’s apartment in detail. Relatively little time
    elapsed between the events described in the affidavit
    and the officer’s appearance before a magistrate, and
    Doe personally appeared before the Cook County judge
    with Elizondo, giving the issuing magistrate an oppor-
    tunity “to evaluate the informant’s knowledge, demeanor,
    and sincerity.” United States v. Sims, 
    551 F.3d 640
    , 644
    (7th Cir. 2008).
    Less convincing is the government’s contention that
    police officers “corroborated” Doe’s account. Taking
    Doe past 1453 S. Springfield gave police officers some
    limited amount of additional information—it would have
    severely undermined Doe’s credibility, for instance, if
    Tookie’s residence turned out to be a delicatessen—but
    it sheds little light on the central question whether mari-
    juana was being trafficked at the premises. See United
    States v. Dismuke, 
    593 F.3d 582
    , 587-88 (7th Cir. 2010)
    (“[The officer]’s other efforts corroborated only [the de-
    fendant]’s identity and the fact that the informant
    had correctly identified [the defendant]’s residence.
    Accuracy on these innocent facts is important but does
    not directly bolster the informant’s claim that [the defen-
    dant] illegally possessed guns at his home.”).
    Doe’s identification of a photograph of Robinson from
    a police database, although superficially compelling
    evidence of corroboration (since police officers knew
    Robinson used the nickname “Tookie”), is, on closer
    examination, also of minimal utility. If Doe selected
    10                                            No. 12-3874
    Robinson from a group of photographs depicting
    several other persons not nicknamed “Tookie,” the iden-
    tification would have had some limited probative
    value, because it would suggest that Doe truly knew
    someone by this name (and that Robinson was likely
    he). The government concedes, however, that Doe did
    not select Robinson from a proper photographic lineup.
    Rather, the record suggests that Elizondo may simply
    have shown Doe photographs of several men already
    known to Chicago police as “Tookie.” Doe made his
    selection from that array. In other words, Elizondo gave
    Doe a multiple-choice exam with no wrong answers:
    any selection made by Doe would have yielded a
    suitable “Tookie” whose name could then be entered into
    a warrant application. See National Institute of Justice,
    Eyewitness Evidence: A Guide for Law Enforcement 29 (1999)
    (“fair composition” of a lineup requires a minimum of five
    “fillers” per identification procedure). Without some
    independent link between the selected photograph and
    the marijuana-dealing protagonist of Doe’s story (e.g., a
    database entry listing 1453 S. Springfield as a known
    address of the pictured “Harvey Robinson, a.k.a.,
    ‘Tookie’ ”), such an identification corroborates nothing.
    Like the district court, however, we need not decide
    whether there was sufficient evidence to support
    the issuance of the search warrant, because the Fourth
    Amendment’s exclusionary rule does not bar the admis-
    sion of evidence seized in reasonable, good-faith
    reliance on a search warrant that is later held to be de-
    fective. United States v. Leon, 
    468 U.S. 897
    , 905 (1984).
    We review de novo the district court’s finding that the
    No. 12-3874                                             11
    “good-faith exception” announced in Leon applies to a
    particular warrant. United States v. Miller, 
    673 F.3d 688
    ,
    693 (7th Cir. 2012).
    Robinson argues that the good-faith exception does
    not apply here because “the warrant was so lacking in
    indicia of probable cause that the police officers’ belief
    in its validity was objectively unreasonable.” See Leon,
    
    468 U.S. at 923
    . We rejected a similar argument in
    Miller, where the defendant urged that police officers’
    failure to corroborate information provided by a con-
    fidential source rendered a warrant “so facially deficient
    that an officer could not reasonably rely on it.” 
    673 F.3d at 693
    . There, a confidential informant provided a
    detailed, recent, firsthand account (likely against the
    informant’s penal interest) that there was cocaine
    within the defendant’s residence, and appeared before
    the issuing judge to swear that the affidavit was true. A
    neutral, detached magistrate issued a warrant based
    on this information. 
    Id. at 693-94
    . Without deciding
    whether the warrant was supported by probable cause,
    this court held that “a reasonable officer might rely on
    the judge’s issuance of a warrant based on [such an af-
    fidavit]” in good faith. 
    Id. at 694
    . Here, we have a
    similarly detailed, recent, firsthand account of alleged
    wrongdoing that was likely self-incriminating; the in-
    formant swore to this statement before an issuing magis-
    trate; and police officers made at least some minimal
    attempts to corroborate Doe’s allegations. Because
    this warrant was not “so lacking in indicia of probable
    cause” that reliance on its validity was objectively unrea-
    12                                             No. 12-3874
    sonable, the district court correctly denied Robinson’s
    motion to suppress.
    III
    Robinson next argues that the trial court erred
    in refusing to hold a Franks hearing to assess
    the truthfulness of the statements in the warrant applica-
    tion. “[W]here the defendant makes a substantial pre-
    liminary showing that a false statement knowingly
    and intentionally, or with reckless disregard for the
    truth, was included by the affiant in the warrant
    affidavit, and if the allegedly false statement is
    necessary to the finding of probable cause, the Fourth
    Amendment requires that a hearing be held at the defen-
    dant’s request.” Franks v. Delaware, 
    438 U.S. 154
    , 155-56
    (1978). Leon’s good-faith exception “does not preclude
    inquiry into the knowing or reckless falsity of the
    affidavit on which [an otherwise valid finding of
    probable cause] was based.” 
    468 U.S. at 914
    . We review
    the district court’s denial of Robinson’s request for a
    Franks hearing for clear error. United States v. McMurtrey,
    
    704 F.3d 502
    , 508 (7th Cir. 2013).
    Robinson’s preliminary showing consisted of
    sworn declarations from Robinson and his wife that
    Robinson was not at 1453 S. Springfield before 8:00 p.m. on
    September 30, 2010; this would make it impossible for
    Robinson to have sold marijuana to Doe at that
    address earlier in the day, as Doe alleged. Robinson
    acknowledges, however, that the relevant inquiry is not
    whether Doe provided false information to police
    No. 12-3874                                             13
    officers or the court, but whether Elizondo “acted reck-
    lessly because [s]he seriously doubted or had obvious
    reason to doubt the truth of the allegations” in the search
    warrant application. United States v. Johnson, 
    580 F.3d 666
    , 670 (7th Cir. 2009). Robinson does not argue that
    Doe was acting as a “government agent” when Doe
    appeared before the court. See United States v. McAllister,
    
    18 F.3d 1412
    , 1417 (7th Cir. 1994). Instead, Robinson
    argues that police officers acted recklessly because they
    failed to do more to corroborate Doe’s account.
    The district court did not commit clear error in con-
    cluding that this showing was not enough to call for a
    Franks hearing. That is so even though the Chicago
    police could have done more to verify Doe’s account,
    and their failure to treat it with greater skepticism
    may have been negligent. But even accepting Robinson’s
    declarations as true, there is no evidence that the
    police officers had obvious reason to doubt that Doe
    had purchased marijuana from someone named Tookie
    earlier that day. Without more, Robinson has not made
    a “substantial preliminary showing” that officers acted
    “with reckless disregard for the truth.”
    Robinson also invokes the law-of-the-case doctrine,
    arguing that the district court was obliged to hold a
    Franks hearing because a different district judge
    to whom the case originally was assigned found that
    Robinson had made a sufficient threshold showing.
    While, as a general matter, courts “should be loathe” to
    revisit prior decisions of their own or coordinate courts,
    Christianson v. Colt Indus. Operating Corp., 
    586 U.S. 800
    ,
    14                                            No. 12-3874
    817 (1988), an “[a]ctual decision of an issue is required
    to establish the law of the case,” 18B C HARLES A LAN
    W RIGHT, A RTHUR R. M ILLER & E DWARD H. C OOPER, F EDERAL
    P RACTICE & P ROCEDURE § 4478 (3d ed. 2005). Even if it
    can be argued that the original judge made “an actual
    decision of an issue” in determining that Robinson had
    made a “substantial preliminary showing,” the law-of-the-
    case doctrine “merely expresses the practice of courts
    generally to refuse to reopen what has been decided, not
    a limit to their power.” Messinger v. Anderson, 
    225 U.S. 436
    , 444 (1912) (Holmes, J.). The court did not err in
    reconsidering the question. It afforded both parties an
    opportunity to reargue their positions, and only then
    did it decide not to conduct a hearing.
    IV
    After closing arguments, the court read aloud the
    previously agreed-upon jury instructions. One of these
    instructions was a standard limiting instruction
    addressing Robinson’s stipulation that he had a prior
    felony conviction. As the written instruction (correctly)
    noted, the jury could consider this stipulation in its de-
    liberations, but only for the limited purpose of assessing
    whether Robinson was a convicted felon, an element of
    a Section 922(g)(1) offense. See F ED. R. E VID. 105, 404.
    When the court read the instruction aloud, however,
    it decided to omit the critical admonition that the
    “jury should consider this evidence only for this limited
    purpose.”
    No. 12-3874                                                 15
    The oral jury instructions here were not just
    incomplete, as the government argues, but inaccurate.
    Before bringing the jury’s attention to Robinson’s
    criminal history, the court reminded the jurors of
    their duty:
    to decide the facts from the evidence in the case . . . .
    The evidence consists of the testimony of the
    witnesses, the exhibits admitted in evidence, and
    stipulations. A stipulation is an agreement between
    both sides that certain facts are true . . . . In our lives,
    we often look at one fact and conclude from it that
    another fact exists. In law we call this ‘inference.’
    A jury is allowed to make reasonable inferences . . .
    based on the evidence in the case.
    These are standard and appropriate instructions in
    most contexts. But the rules of evidence often demand
    some refinement. Without an additional instruction to
    consider the stipulation only for the limited purpose
    of determining whether Robinson was a convicted
    felon, this charge communicated to jurors that they
    were permitted, and perhaps even obliged, to consider
    the stipulation for the purpose of determining whether
    Robinson possessed the firearm. A lay juror could infer
    that a convicted felon is more likely to carry a dangerous
    weapon than someone without a track record of
    criminal wrongdoing. This inference, however, is
    precisely what Federal Rule of Evidence 404(b) forbids.
    The complete and accurate set of written instructions
    given to the jury did not cure this error. The govern-
    ment highlights the written instructions in arguing that
    16                                              No. 12-3874
    the jury was not misled if we evaluate “the instructions
    as a whole,” United States v. Javell, 
    695 F.3d 707
    ,
    714 (7th Cir. 2012), but this requires us to make two as-
    sumptions: (1) that the jury noticed that the 28-page
    document was inconsistent with the oral instructions
    they had heard, and (2) that the jury decided to resolve
    this conflict in favor of the written instructions.
    Although the court twice told the jurors to “reread
    all instructions,” nothing assures us that these two as-
    sumptions are valid here. Our criminal justice system
    has relied on oral jury instructions since its inception,
    and while there is ample evidence that the increasingly
    common use of supplementary written instructions
    can help jurors understand difficult legal concepts,
    see Nancy R. Marder, Bringing Jury Instructions Into the
    Twenty-First Century, 81 N OTRE D AME L. R EV. 449, 490-
    510 (2006), a trial judge commits error if she fails to “read
    aloud jury instructions in their entirety,” United States
    v. Perry, 
    479 F.3d 885
    , 893 (D.C. Cir. 2007); accord Guam
    v. Marquez, 
    963 F.2d 1311
    , 1314-15 (9th Cir. 1992), United
    States v. Noble, 
    155 F.2d 315
    , 318 (3d Cir. 1946).
    The more difficult question is whether this mistake
    should be disregarded as harmless error because it
    “does not affect substantial rights.” See F ED. R. C RIM. P.
    52(a). The “discrimination [harmless error review]
    requires is one of judgment transcending confinement
    by formula or precise rule.” Kotteakos v. United States,
    
    328 U.S. 750
    , 761 (1946). Because “it is not the appellate
    court’s function to determine guilt or innocence,” our
    inquiry cannot stop with the question “whether there
    was enough to support the result, apart from the phase
    No. 12-3874                                           17
    affected by the error.” 
    Id. at 763, 765
    . Rather, we
    examine the effect of the error on the decisionmaking
    process as a whole, asking “whether the error itself
    had substantial influence,” 
    id. at 765
    ; see also Miller,
    
    673 F.3d at 700
    . Generally speaking, a finding of harm-
    lessness is appropriate only if an appellate court can
    say “with fair assurance” that the judgment was not
    “substantially swayed by the error.” Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 765
    . The burden of demonstrating harmlessness rests
    with the government. See O’Neal v. McAninch, 
    513 U.S. 432
    , 438-39 (1995); United States v. Olano, 
    507 U.S. 725
    ,
    734 (1993).
    The government argues that the jury-instruction
    error was harmless based on the strength of the other
    evidence against Robinson. It relies primarily on
    the testimony of Sergeant Blas, a 21-year veteran of the
    Chicago police department and the supervisor of the
    search team, who said that Robinson admitted that
    the revolver was his at the time of the search; and the
    testimony of Elizondo and Moore, who both said
    that Robinson provided a second confession during a
    subsequent interrogation. These statements were
    included in an “Incident Report” authored by Moore
    later that day. The sole issue at trial was relatively
    simple: did the gun really belong to Robinson? We
    agree with the government that, if the jury believed
    the testimony of these three witnesses, the case against
    Robinson was open and shut.
    Without the testimony of these three officers, how-
    ever, there was no evidence (e.g., fingerprints, witness
    18                                              No. 12-3874
    statements) tying Robinson to the revolver, and so Robin-
    son’s defense strategy focused on attacking the officers’
    credibility. Robinson argued that the Chicago police
    expected to find evidence of a significant drug-dealing
    operation at 1453 S. Springfield, consistent with the
    information provided by Doe in the warrant affidavit,
    and they were disappointed to discover only negligible
    quantities of marijuana. Authorities thought that
    Robinson could still lead them to other persons
    involved in the drug trade, however, and they were
    hoping to leverage the bogus firearm accusation to pres-
    sure Robinson into “cooperating” with these efforts.
    Robinson’s opening and closing arguments suggested
    two different scenarios consistent with this theory: (1) the
    gun was planted by Chicago police; (2) the gun was not
    planted, but belonged to someone else inside the apart-
    ment, and the Chicago police fabricated Robinson’s
    two purported confessions to encourage him to talk.
    Robinson developed the first possibility through cross-
    examination of Blas. According to Blas, the nine or
    ten members of the search team entered the apartment
    in an orderly fashion, without any need for force,
    since Robinson’s grandmother opened the door. Blas,
    the search supervisor, was the last to enter. Once across
    the threshold, Blas said that he observed a laundry
    basket just to his right, where he spotted a large,
    shiny revolver resting atop the clothes. We include a
    photograph of the gun, taken before police officers
    moved any of the evidence, to highlight the gun’s con-
    spicuous placement. To credit Blas’s testimony, the
    jury would have to believe that eight or nine trained
    No. 12-3874                                            19
    Chicago police officers, conducting a search for evidence
    of criminal wrongdoing, passed within inches of a
    plainly visible gun without noticing it. Robinson urged
    that this was implausible.
    After calling for another officer to take control of the
    gun, Blas testified that he then read Miranda warnings
    to Robinson (who was detained on the sofa in the
    next room) and asked him “if there was anything in the
    residence that shouldn’t be here.” According to Blas,
    Robinson replied, “ ‘Yes, that’s my gun,’ or ‘The gun
    that’s in the laundry basket.’ ” (We note that the latter
    reply implies only knowledge of the gun’s presence,
    not necessarily possession, though the defense did not
    advance this argument to the jury.) Although there
    20                                            No. 12-3874
    were eight or nine other police officers in the apartment
    at this time, and Moore testified that she was able to
    hear Sergeant Blas reading a Miranda warning, no other
    witnesses testified that they overheard Robinson’s
    inculpatory statement.
    Robinson also attacked the credibility of Moore and
    Elizondo, who testified that Robinson again acknowl-
    edged that he owned the gun during the later station-
    house interview. Despite the fact that officers had just
    conducted a search expecting to find marijuana—and,
    indeed, had found a tiny bit of marijuana—both officers
    testified that they were uninterested in Robinson’s “coop-
    eration” in ongoing drug investigations. Indeed,
    Elizondo denied asking Robinson about anything other
    than the gun during the interview:
    Q: What do you recall saying to Mr. Robinson in the
    interview room?
    A: Where he had purchased the gun, or where—where
    he had gotten the gun from.
    Q: That’s it?
    A: Yes.
    Q: That’s the only thing you said the whole time
    you were sitting in the interview room?
    A: I asked him that question and then he related
    the information that’s on my report.
    Neither officer retained notes from the interrogation,
    asked Robinson to provide a written confession, made
    an audio recording, or sought Robinson’s signature or
    No. 12-3874                                          21
    initials to confirm their summary of Robinson’s state-
    ments. Moore and Elizondo also seemed shaky on the
    particulars of the search: although both officers remem-
    bered certain details that were useful to the govern-
    ment’s case, they struggled to remember other pertinent
    information solicited by the defense, such as the layout
    of the apartment or the number of other people
    present at the time of the search.
    In an effort to bolster Moore and Elizondo’s account,
    the government highlighted the fact that the Incident
    Report mentioned businesses (a gas station and a
    Wendy’s restaurant) near the intersection where
    Robinson purportedly admitted buying the gun. The
    government argued that this served as proof that the
    officers’ accounts were genuine, since Moore and
    Elizondo testified that they were unfamiliar with the
    area at the time of the search, and photographs taken
    after the interrogation confirmed the presence of a gas
    station and a Wendy’s restaurant at this location. If
    police officers were intent on manufacturing a false
    statement, however, they could have included certain
    details to make the statement seem more legitimate.
    Arguing this theory, Robinson elicited from Moore that
    the officers had internet access at the stationhouse
    where the interview took place, allowing them to pull
    up a picture of the intersection in question. See
    http://goo.gl/maps/YGHty (last visited July 29, 2013).
    And it is at least conceivable that other information
    already known to Chicago police—arrest records, gang
    affiliations, other database entries—linked Robinson
    to this area.
    22                                             No. 12-3874
    We indulge these hypotheticals not because we are
    persuaded that the police witnesses testified dishonestly:
    it is not our role to “become in effect a second jury to
    determine whether the defendant is guilty.” Neder v.
    United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    , 19 (1990) (quoting R. T RAYNOR,
    T HE R IDDLE OF H ARMLESS E RROR 21 (1980)). Still, we
    note that deliberations lasted for nearly 11 hours before
    the jury returned its guilty verdict, a result that was all
    but inescapable if the jury credited the government’s
    witnesses. Particularly where there is reason to think
    that the jury had difficulty in reaching its verdict, we
    must tread cautiously before concluding that an error
    was harmless. Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 764
     (“[Harmless
    error review] must take account of what the error meant
    to the [jury], not singled out and standing alone, but
    in relation to all else that happened.”).
    With this record in mind, we now turn to weighing
    the impact of the trial court’s error here. On the one
    hand, the government never argued to the jury that it
    should consider Robinson’s prior felony conviction for
    an improper purpose. This diminishes to some extent
    the risk that the prohibited inference (that Robinson
    was more likely to possess the gun because he was a
    convicted felon) entered into the jury’s deliberations.
    On the other hand, there are well-recognized dangers
    inherent in allowing juries to consider any evidence of
    a defendant’s prior trouble with the law in subsequent
    criminal proceedings:
    The inquiry is not rejected because character is ir-
    relevant; on the contrary, it is said to weigh too
    No. 12-3874                                             23
    much with the jury and to so overpersuade them as
    to prejudge one with a bad general record and deny
    him a fair opportunity to defend against a particular
    charge. The overriding policy of excluding such
    evidence, despite its admitted probative value, is the
    practical experience that its disallowance tends to
    prevent confusion of issues, unfair surprise and
    undue prejudice.
    Michelson v. United States, 
    335 U.S. 469
    , 475-76 (1948)
    (internal citations omitted); see also United States v.
    Hope, 
    906 F.2d 254
    , 264 (7th Cir. 1990) (“The danger inher-
    ent in submitting evidence of a prior conviction to a jury
    is self-evident [and] exist[s] with or without [a] stipula-
    tion.”). This helps explain why the evidentiary rule gov-
    erning limiting instructions is written in mandatory
    terms, providing that “the court, on timely request, must
    restrict the evidence to its proper scope and instruct
    the jury accordingly.” FED. R. E VID. 105 (emphasis added).
    In the end, we cannot say “with fair assurance” that
    the judgment was not substantially swayed by the trial
    court’s error. Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 765
    . Robinson’s
    defense hinged on convincing the jury that several
    police officers fabricated his confessions, a theory that
    was not implausible. It may be that Robinson’s criminal
    history played no role in deliberations, but it is
    also possible that Robinson’s criminal history helped
    persuade the jury that the police officers were telling
    the truth about the provenance of the revolver and Robin-
    son’s confessions. The government has not met its
    burden of establishing that this was not what occurred.
    24                                                No. 12-3874
    “[I]n the face of the misdirection and in the circum-
    stances of this case, we cannot assume that the lay triers
    of fact were so well informed upon the law or that
    they disregarded the permission expressly given” to
    draw the improper inference. 
    Id. at 769
    . The error
    was not harmless.
    V
    Robinson also raises two additional issues: he argues
    that the district court violated his rights under the Con-
    frontation Clause of the Sixth Amendment by limiting
    certain lines of cross-examination of police witnesses,
    and that the district court abused its discretion in failing
    to declare a mistrial as jury deliberations entered their
    ninth hour. Since these issues are unlikely to recur in
    precisely the same manner on remand, we refrain
    from addressing them.
    We  R EVERSE the district          court’s   judgment   and
    R EMAND for a new trial.
    7-31-13