Lebamoff Enterprises, Inc. v. Alex Huskey ( 2012 )


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  •                              In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 11-1362
    L EBAMOFF E NTERPRISES, INC., et al.,
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,
    v.
    A LEX H USKEY, in his official capacity
    as chairman of the INDIANA A LCOHOL AND
    T OBACCO C OMMISSION,
    Defendant-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Southern District of Indiana, Indianapolis Division.
    No. 1:09-cv-00744-JMS-TAB—Jane E. Magnus-Stinson, Judge.
    A RGUED S EPTEMBER 13, 2011—D ECIDED JANUARY 17, 2012
    Before P OSNER, SYKES, and H AMILTON, Circuit Judges.
    P OSNER, Circuit Judge. A company (trade name Cap N’
    Cork) that owns retail liquor stores in the Fort Wayne
    area of northern Indiana brought this suit, joined by
    two consumers of wine who live in Indianapolis, to
    challenge the constitutionality of an Indiana state law
    that prevents Cap N’ Cork from shipping wine to its
    customers via a motor carrier, such as UPS. Ind. Code.
    2                                               No. 11-1362
    § 7.1-3-15-3(d). With an exception, explained below, that
    is inapplicable to Cap N’ Cork, the statute forbids de-
    liveries other than by the seller of the wine or an employee
    of the seller—and Indianapolis is a 130-mile drive from
    Fort Wayne, well beyond Cap N’ Cork’s feasible delivery
    range.
    The company challenges the state law on two grounds.
    The first is that it is inconsistent with, and therefore
    preempted by, a federal statute, the Federal Aviation Ad-
    ministration Authorization Act of 1994, 
    108 Stat. 1605
    -06,
    7, enacted in 1994, that provides that a state “may not enact
    or enforce a law, regulation, or other provision having
    the force and effect of law related to a price, route, or
    service of any motor carrier,” 
    49 U.S.C. § 14501
    (c)(1), with
    the principal exception of laws concerned with safety.
    § 14501(c)(2)(A); City of Columbus v. Ours Garage &
    Wrecker Service, Inc., 
    536 U.S. 424
    , 441 (2002); VRC LLC
    v. City of Dallas, 
    460 F.3d 607
    , 612-14 (5th Cir. 2006).
    Since everything in an open economy relates to every-
    thing else, the term “related to” cannot be interpreted
    literally, especially since the statute had a focused aim—to
    prevent states from nullifying the repeal, by the
    Motor Carrier Act of 1980, 
    94 Stat. 793
    , a statutory compo-
    nent of the deregulation movement, of the federal laws that
    had made truck transportation a heavily regulated indus-
    try, like the railroads and airlines, which were also being
    deregulated. Rowe v. New Hampshire Motor Transport
    Ass’n, 
    552 U.S. 364
    , 368 (2008). Rowe read the 1994 law
    to forbid a state to require that a tobacco retailer deliver
    a tobacco product to a consumer only by a carrier
    that verified that the recipient was of legal age
    No. 11-1362                                               3
    to consume tobacco; the state was attempting to regulate
    a service (delivery of tobacco products) provided by
    motor carriers. See also DiFiore v. American Airlines, Inc.,
    
    646 F.3d 81
    , 86-87 (1st Cir. 2011).
    The state law challenged in the present case does not
    regulate motor carriers, but it forbids liquor stores to use
    motor carriers to deliver wine (also beer and liquor, 
    Ind. Code §§ 7.1-3-5
    -3(d), 7.1-3-10-7(c), products that Cap N’
    Cork also sells, but for unexplained reasons the company
    doesn’t challenge the beer and liquor provisions), and the
    effect is to prohibit motor carriers from offering a service
    they’d like to offer. True, one major carrier, at least, is
    offering it in Indiana (see UPS, “Shipping Wine,”
    www.ups.com/wine (visited Nov. 28, 2011)), but only
    to wineries that have verified in person the age of the
    Indiana residents to whom they ship.
    In a case challenging another Indiana regulation of
    wine, we said that “we know from Rowe . . . that states
    cannot [consistently with the 1994 act] require interstate
    carriers to verify the recipients’ age.” Baude v. Heath,
    
    538 F.3d 608
    , 613 (7th Cir. 2008). But the Supreme
    Court had had no occasion in Rowe—a case about the
    delivery of tobacco products rather than of alcoholic
    beverages—to address, and did not address, the possible
    bearing on the Motor Carrier Act of section 2 of the
    Twen ty-First Am endm ent, which states that
    “the transportation or importation into any State . . . for
    delivery or use therein of intoxicating liquors, in viola-
    tion of the laws thereof, is hereby prohibited.” Like all
    other states, Indiana forbids the sale of alcoholic bev-
    erages to anyone under the age of 21. The Twenty-First
    4                                                 No. 11-1362
    Amendment authorizes a state to enforce that prohibi-
    tion, but not, the Supreme Court has held, by means
    that seriously impair the federal government’s constitu-
    tional powers. E.g., Granholm v. Heald, 
    544 U.S. 460
    , 486
    (2005); 44 Liquormart, Inc. v. Rhode Island, 
    517 U.S. 484
    ,
    516 (1996); Capital Cities Cable, Inc. v. Crisp, 
    467 U.S. 691
    , 712 (1984). And those powers include the power
    to regulate transportation by interstate motor carriers.
    In seeking to resolve the tension between the Twenty-
    First Amendment and the Supremacy Clause, which in
    the absence of the amendment would invalidate a state
    law that conflicted with a federal statute, the Supreme
    Court has thought it important that the “core . . . power”
    conferred on the states by section 2 of the Twenty-First
    Amendment is the power of “regulating the times,
    places, and manner under which liquor may be imported
    and sold.” Capital Cities Cable, Inc. v. Crisp, 
    supra,
     
    467 U.S. at 716
    . Indiana’s prohibition of the delivery of wine by
    motor carriers is within that power, because it is an
    aspect of “regulating the . . . manner under which [wine]
    may be . . . sold.” One might have thought that since
    the Twenty-First Amendment postdates the Supremacy
    Clause, anything within the core power of the amend-
    ment (or within the scope of the amendment, period—
    forget cores) must trump an inconsistent federal stat-
    ute. But while the Supreme Court will accord “a
    strong presumption of validity” to regulations within
    the core, “strong” is not “conclusive.” North Dakota v.
    United States, 
    495 U.S. 423
    , 432 (1990) (plurality opinion);
    cf. Capital Cities Cable, Inc. v. Crisp, 
    supra,
     
    467 U.S. at 716
    . “Even though [the challenged statute] represents
    No. 11-1362                                                5
    the exercise of a core state power pursuant to the Twenty-
    first Amendment, a balancing of state and federal
    interests must be conducted.” U.S. Airways, Inc. v.
    O’Donnell, 
    627 F.3d 1318
    , 1330 (10th Cir. 2010).
    So whereas ordinarily a federal law preempts a con-
    flicting state law, if the state law regulates alcoholic
    beverages the court must balance the federal and state
    interests; for just as the federal interests derive constitu-
    tional protection from the supremacy clause, the
    state interests derive constitutional protection from the
    Twenty-First Amendment, unlike the usual case in
    which federal preemption is asserted. And if the state
    interests are within the core powers that the Twenty-First
    Amendment confers on the states, there is a thumb on the
    scale—that is the “strong presumption” of validity.
    We’re about to see the strong presumption carry the
    day for the challenged Indiana statute, and that makes
    us reluctant to get ahead of the Court and declare the
    “presumption against preemption” that the Court has
    lately applied in cases, unaffected by the Twenty-First
    Amendment, in which Congress has legislated in a
    field traditionally occupied by the states, see, e.g., Altria
    Group, Inc. v. Good, 
    555 U.S. 70
    , 77 (2008), conclusive in
    the field of state regulation of alcoholic beverages, on
    the ground that the amendment makes it a field of
    law emphatically occupied (since 1933) by the states.
    Indiana requires drivers employed by liquor retailers
    to be trained in and tested on Indiana’s alcohol laws
    and also trained in the recognition of phony IDs. See 
    Ind. Code §§ 7.1-3-1
    .5-1, -6, -13, 7.1-3-18-9. It is because the
    6                                               No. 11-1362
    state doesn’t require similar training of motor carriers’
    drivers that those carriers aren’t permitted to deliver
    alcoholic beverages to a consumer unless, prior to ship-
    ping, the consumer’s age is personally verified by an
    employee of the winery from which the consumer is
    buying. 
    Ind. Code § 7.1-3-26
    -9(1)(A); Baude v. Heath, 
    supra,
    538 F.3d at 612
    . Motor carriers are required to obtain
    “carriers’ alcoholic permits” in order to be allowed
    to transport alcohol on public highways in Indiana, but
    their drivers are not required to obtain permits and
    there is no training requirement either. See 
    Ind. Code §§ 7.1-3-18
    -1 et seq. Allowing motor carriers to deliver
    wine could therefore undermine the state’s efforts to
    prevent underage drinking, the state having decided
    not unreasonably that requiring face-to-face age verifica-
    tion by someone who has passed a state-certified
    training course should reduce the prevalence of that
    drinking.
    The fact that Indiana allows direct deliveries by
    carriers to wine consumers, where the seller has
    previously verified the consumer’s age in person, but
    not other such deliveries, might seem to undermine the
    state’s rationale, since there is no training requirement
    for employees of wineries. But the statute imposes other
    requirements on the wineries designed to assure
    accurate age verification, see 
    Ind. Code § 7.1-3-26
    -9, and
    it would hardly be feasible for Indiana (and would
    indeed be severely discriminatory) to require that em-
    ployees of out-of-state wineries undergo training in
    Indiana before being permitted to ship to an Indiana
    consumer.
    No. 11-1362                                            7
    We might have a different case if a motor carrier
    were asking the state to allow it to opt into the same
    training requirement imposed on drivers employed by
    retailers of wine. That would both weaken the attempt
    to justify the challenged law on the basis of the Twenty-
    First Amendment (which so far as relates to this case
    merely allows a state to take reasonable measures for
    preventing underage drinking), and discriminate with-
    out apparent justification against motor carriers. But as
    far as appears, no motor carrier has sought such equal
    treatment with the retailers or been denied it and sued.
    No motor carrier is a party to this case.
    So Cap N’ Cork’s federal-preemption argument fails,
    but the company has another string to its bow: it argues
    that the Indiana law unduly burdens interstate com-
    merce, and so violates the commerce clause of Article I
    of the Constitution. Not, however, because Indiana may
    be increasing the cost of wine produced elsewhere;
    that consequence is inherent in the central power con-
    ferred on the states by the Twenty-First Amendment—
    the power to limit or even forbid the consumption of wine
    within its borders—and overrides the competing
    interests held to be latent in the commerce clause
    because otherwise the amendment would be a dead
    letter. But the amendment does not authorize states to
    discriminate in favor of local producers—in an extreme
    case, to forbid the sale in the state of wine produced
    elsewhere while placing no comparable limits on the
    sale of wine by wineries located in the state. As the Su-
    preme Court explained in Granholm v. Heald, 
    supra,
     
    544 U.S. at 484-85
    , “the aim of the Twenty-first Amendment
    8                                               No. 11-1362
    was to allow States to maintain an effective and
    uniform system for controlling liquor by regulating its
    transportation, importation, and use. The Amendment
    did not give States the authority to pass nonuniform laws
    in order to discriminate against out-of-state goods, a
    privilege they had not enjoyed at any earlier time.” See
    also Healy v. Beer Institute, Inc., 
    491 U.S. 324
     (1989).
    The Indiana law does not discriminate expressly
    against out-of-state producers. Both local and out-of-state
    wineries can deliver to consumers, and by motor carriers
    if they want, provided the consumer’s age has been
    verified at the winery in person. And both local and out-of-
    state wineries are bound by the rule that delivery of
    wine sold by a retailer must be made by the retailer’s
    own employees. But does the absence of express dis-
    crimination end the constitutional inquiry?
    It is typical in cases in which alcoholic beverage reg-
    ulations are challenged under the commerce clause
    to evaluate the challenge before asking whether the
    Twenty-First Amendment blocks the challenge. For if the
    challenge would fail even if there were no such amend-
    ment, there is nothing to be gained by trying to deter-
    mine whether, if it would succeed under that assump-
    tion, in the actual case the amendment would blunt it.
    We follow that approach in the balance of this opinion.
    The Supreme Court has said that “ ‘when a state statute
    directly regulates or discriminates against interstate
    commerce, or when its effect is to favor in-state economic
    interests over out-of-state interests, we have generally
    struck down the statute without further inquiry.’ ”
    No. 11-1362                                               9
    Granholm v. Heald, 
    supra,
     
    544 U.S. at 487
    , quoting Brown-
    Forman Distillers Corp. v. New York State Liquor Authority,
    
    476 U.S. 573
    , 579 (1986). But while “without further in-
    quiry” may be fine in a case in which the statute is ex-
    pressly discriminatory, it doesn’t follow that if the effect
    is implicit, indirect, incidental, or unintended, no
    further consideration is necessary, even apart from the
    difficulty of distinguishing between explicit and implicit,
    direct and indirect.
    In Brown-Forman we read that “when . . . a statute has
    only indirect effects on interstate commerce and regulates
    evenhandedly, we have examined whether the State’s
    interest is legitimate and whether the burden on inter-
    state commerce clearly exceeds the local benefits. Pike v.
    Bruce Church, Inc., 
    397 U.S. 137
    , 142 (1970).” 
    476 U.S. at 579
    ; see also Wiesmueller v. Kosobucki, 
    571 F.3d 699
    , 703
    (7th Cir. 2009). And Brown-Forman was a case involving
    state regulation of alcoholic beverages, as was Bacchus
    Imports, Ltd. v. Dias, 
    468 U.S. 263
    , 270 (1984), which holds
    that “examination of the State’s purpose in this case is
    sufficient to demonstrate the State’s lack of entitlement to
    a more flexible approach permitting inquiry into the
    balance between local benefits and the burden on inter-
    state commerce. See Pike v. Bruce Church, Inc.” Thus, as
    in Granholm (which cited Bacchus approvingly), the
    Court in Bacchus didn’t balance because it didn’t need to,
    but neither did it indicate that it would refuse to do so
    if the effect on commerce were indirect. Nor has any
    appellate court so held. Our Baude decision analyzed
    Indiana’s alcohol laws under Pike’s balancing test, and
    invalidated one of them, Baude v. Heath, 
    supra,
     
    538 F.3d 10
                                                     No. 11-1362
    at 612, and other courts have analyzed similar laws simi-
    larly. Of all cases that cite both Pike and Granholm or Pike
    and the Twenty-First Amendment, we find none that
    rejects that approach. Besides Baude, see Wine & Spirits
    Retailers, Inc. v. Rhode Island, 
    481 F.3d 1
    , 15 (1st Cir. 2007);
    see also Freeman v. Corzine, 
    629 F.3d 146
    , 164 (3d Cir.
    2010); Black Star Farms LLC v. Oliver, 
    600 F.3d 1225
    , 1230-31
    (9th Cir. 2010); Cherry Hill Vineyards, LLC v. Lilly, 
    553 F.3d 423
    , 432 (6th Cir. 2008).
    The Pike standard is intended for cases in which a
    statute “regulates even-handedly . . . and its effects on
    interstate commerce are only incidental.” Pike v. Bruce
    Church, Inc., supra, 
    397 U.S. at 142
    . One might as an orig-
    inal matter suppose that the Twenty-First Amendment
    insulated merely incidental effects on interstate com-
    merce in alcoholic beverages from constitutional chal-
    lenges based on the commerce clause. But again we
    needn’t get ahead of the Supreme Court in the matter.
    So incidental are the effects of interstate commerce in
    this case—in fact, so negligible—that even if the Twenty-
    First Amendment were inapplicable, Cap N’ Cork would
    lose its commerce clause challenge.
    It is true that the farther away from the consumer a
    winery is, the harder it is to induce consumers to come
    for face-to-face age verification at the winery, and most
    U.S. wineries are on the West Coast, more than 2000
    miles from Indiana. But we ruled in Baude that this is not
    unlawful discrimination, given the state’s interest
    (which incidentally would exist even if there were no
    Twenty-First Amendment, though it would be more
    No. 11-1362                                                11
    vulnerable to constitutional challenge) in preventing the
    sale of alcoholic beverages to minors. See also Wine
    Country Gift Baskets.com v. Steen, 
    612 F.3d 809
    , 819-20
    (5th Cir. 2010); Black Star Farms LLC v. Oliver, 
    supra,
    600 F.3d at 1234-35
    ; Cherry Hill Vineyard, LLC v. Baldacci,
    
    505 F.3d 28
    , 36-39 (1st Cir. 2007); but cf. Cherry Hill Vine-
    yards, LLC v. Lilly, 
    supra,
     
    553 F.3d at 432-33
    . (We note later
    that the Lilly case is distinguishable.)
    This case might seem different because of the position
    in which out-of-state wineries are placed that ship only
    small quantities of wine into Indiana. The state has de-
    creed, as it is authorized to do by the Twenty-First Amend-
    ment, see Granholm v. Heald, 
    supra,
     
    544 U.S. at 489
    ; Baude
    v. Heath, 
    supra,
     
    538 F.3d at 612
    ; Wine Country Gift
    Baskets.com v. Steen, 
    supra,
     
    612 F.3d at 818-19
    , that any
    winery that wants to sell its wine through a retailer
    rather than directly to the consumer must sell the wine
    to a wholesaler, for resale to the retailer, for resale to
    the consumer. Indiana wholesalers won’t buy small
    quantities of wine because they can’t obtain enough
    revenue from reselling small quantities to cover their
    costs. But fulfillment services pool orders for such
    wines and consign the ordered wines in bulk to whole-
    salers. The wholesalers can’t deliver the wine to con-
    sumers, because doing so would circumvent Indiana’s
    three-tier distribution system (winery-wholesaler-retailer),
    so the retailer with whom the consumer placed the
    order picks up the wine at the wholesaler’s warehouse
    and delivers it by its own employees to the consumer,
    who pays the retailer (or the fulfillment service), who
    pays the wholesaler, who pays the winery. The regulatory
    12                                              No. 11-1362
    scheme is the same for all wineries that sell in or
    into Indiana, regardless of where they’re located.
    Apparently Cap N’ Cork is one of only two retail liquor
    companies in Indiana (and together the two own only a
    few dozen of the state’s thousand or so liquor stores)
    that pick up from wholesalers wine provided to the
    wholesalers by fulfillment services and deliver the wine
    to the retailer’s customers. All of Cap N’ Cork’s 15
    stores are in the Fort Wayne area, and all the stores of the
    other company, which appears to be Payless Liquors, see
    www.payless-liquors.com (visited Nov. 28, 2011), are in
    the Indianapolis area. (Given Payless, it’s odd that the
    two individual plaintiffs live in Indianapolis, rather than
    in a part of Indiana in which there is no wine fulfill-
    ment service.) A consumer who lives outside the Fort
    Wayne area and has not been age-verified by a winery
    and must therefore buy from a retailer cannot buy
    through Cap N’ Cork, because it will not deliver to a
    consumer outside that area. No consumers who haven’t
    been age-verified by wineries are permitted to buy wine
    produced by wineries that either do not produce in
    Indiana or do not ship into the state quantities large
    enough to induce wholesalers to stock their wine, unless
    the consumers live in or very near either Fort Wayne or
    Indianapolis—the only areas served by fulfillment services.
    Local wineries, being more proximate to Indiana con-
    sumers than most out-of-state wineries, have a natural
    advantage over the latter by virtue of the face-to-face
    identification condition of being allowed to ship directly
    to consumers. But that as we said is a lawful advantage.
    No. 11-1362                                                 13
    And the fulfillment services enable Indiana wholesalers
    to stock wine sold by even the smallest wineries. The fact
    that retailers in certain parts of the state do not offer
    delivery of wine supplied to wholesalers by fulfillment
    services suggests a lack of demand, other than in Fort
    Wayne or Indianapolis, for such wine, rather than any-
    thing to do with the challenged state law.
    The case comes down to a complaint that state law is
    preventing Cap N’ Cork from enlarging its sales area
    to encompass parts of Indiana remote from Fort Wayne.
    If true that is an effect on intrastate commerce, not inter-
    state commerce. No effect on interstate commerce has
    been shown, in contrast to the factual showing of effect
    on interstate commerce that persuaded the Sixth Circuit
    in Cherry Hill Vineyards, LLC v. Lilly, 
    supra,
     
    553 F.3d at
    432-
    33, to invalidate a law similar to the one upheld
    in Baude. The absence of even an incidental effect on
    interstate commerce excuses us from having to wrestle
    with the continued applicability of the Pike standard to
    state laws that while they discriminate incidentally
    against interstate commerce are at the same time within
    the Twenty-First Amendment’s gravitational field.
    A FFIRMED.
    14                                              No. 11-1362
    H AMILTON, Circuit Judge, concurring in the judgment.
    I agree with my colleagues that the district court’s grant
    of summary judgment for the defendant should be af-
    firmed, but with respect, I reach that conclusion by a
    different route. In rejecting plaintiffs’ preemption and
    dormant Commerce Clause theories, my colleagues
    apply a quasi-legislative form of interest-balancing. In
    my view of the applicable law, the Twenty-first Amend-
    ment to the Constitution should foreclose those bal-
    ancing tests when the state is exercising its core Twenty-
    first Amendment power to regulate the transportation
    and importation of alcoholic beverages for consumption
    in the state. The challenged state law here, forbidding
    some but not all direct deliveries of alcohol by common
    carriers to consumers, falls within that core power. The
    law should be upheld even if, as I believe, its actual
    benefits are minimal and its burdens on federal
    interests are significant.
    In recent years, the Supreme Court has held that the
    Twenty-first Amendment did not protect many state
    alcoholic beverage laws challenged on a host of federal
    law grounds. See Arnold’s Wines, Inc. v. Boyle, 
    571 F.3d 185
    ,
    192-201 (2d Cir. 2009) (Calabresi, J., concurring) (re-
    viewing Twenty-first Amendment cases and describing
    Supreme Court’s recent “vector” toward prohibiting
    any state alcoholic beverage laws from discriminating
    against interstate commerce); Bridenbaugh v. Freeman-
    Wilson, 
    227 F.3d 848
    , 851-53 (7th Cir. 2000) (reviewing
    constitutional history of alcoholic beverage law). By
    applying the balancing tests to this Indiana law, how-
    ever, my colleagues go farther than the Supreme Court
    No. 11-1362                                             15
    has gone. My colleagues in the end also uphold the chal-
    lenged law, but I believe the use of these balancing tests
    will tend to erode the states’ powers protected by the
    Twenty-first Amendment.
    I. Preemption and the Twenty-first Amendment
    Turning first to plaintiffs’ preemption argument
    under the Federal Aviation Administration Authoriza-
    tion Act of 1994, 
    49 U.S.C. §§ 14501
    (c)(1), 41713(b)(4)(A),
    the Twenty-first Amendment provides the only viable
    distinction between this case and the Maine statute
    barring direct delivery of tobacco that was struck down
    as preempted by the FAAAA in Rowe v. New Hampshire
    Motor Transport Ass’n, 
    552 U.S. 364
     (2008). The Twenty-
    first Amendment distinction should be decisive.
    When the United States decided to end Prohibition in
    1933, it did so through the compromise set forth in the
    Twenty-first Amendment. Section 1 repealed the Eigh-
    teenth Amendment. Section 2 was the other half of the
    compromise, providing unique constitutional protection
    for state laws regulating alcoholic beverages: “The trans-
    portation or importation into any State, Territory, or
    possession of the United States for delivery or use
    therein of intoxicating liquors, in violation of the laws
    thereof, is hereby prohibited.”
    In our federal system, which is otherwise dominated
    by the Supremacy Clause in Article VI of the Constitu-
    tion, the language in section 2 of the Twenty-first Amend-
    ment has the unique effect of elevating the covered state
    16                                                    No. 11-1362
    laws and regulations to the status of federal constitu-
    tional law. Congress could not, for example, pass a law
    requiring states to allow direct delivery of interstate
    wine shipments to consumers, even though Congress
    would be free to impose such a requirement for virtually
    any other article of commerce. See, e.g., Granholm v.
    Heald, 
    544 U.S. 460
    , 488-89 (2005) (noting that states
    may ban import of alcohol altogether, or “funnel sales
    through the three-tier system”). Where section 2 applies,
    ordinary preemption doctrines under the Supremacy
    Clause simply do not apply.1
    1
    Nobody suggests that section 2 is truly absolute. One need
    only hypothesize a state alcoholic beverage law discriminating
    on the basis of race, sex, or religion to recognize that there are
    limits. See Craig v. Boren, 
    429 U.S. 190
    , 209 (1976) (Equal Protec-
    tion Clause of Fourteenth Amendment bars different drinking-
    age limits based on sex). Similarly, the Supreme Court has held
    that the Twenty-first Amendment does not authorize a state
    to disregard the First Amendment, 44 Liquormart, Inc. v. Rhode
    Island, 
    517 U.S. 484
    , 516 (1996) (striking down a ban on price
    advertising for alcoholic beverages), the Due Process Clause,
    Wisconsin v. Constantineau, 
    400 U.S. 433
    , 436 (1971) (requiring
    notice and opportunity to be heard before police publicly
    prohibit named individuals from buying alcohol), the Import-
    Export Clause, Department of Revenue v. James Beam Co., 
    377 U.S. 341
    , 346 (1964) (striking down a tax on liquor imported into
    state from foreign country), or federal antitrust laws exer-
    cising the full commerce power of the federal government,
    California Retail Liquor Dealers Ass’n v. Midcal Aluminum, Inc.,
    
    445 U.S. 97
    , 114 (1980) (striking down a resale price maintenance
    (continued...)
    No. 11-1362                                                     17
    When federal courts deal with a state law exercising
    the state’s core Twenty-first Amendment power over
    transportation, importation, and sale of alcoholic bever-
    ages, including the terms of delivery, federal law
    requires great deference to the state law, even if the state
    uses that authority in ways that seem protective or be-
    nighted as a matter of sound public policy. See North
    Dakota v. United States, 
    495 U.S. 423
    , 439-40 (1990) (plurality
    opinion) (“But when the Court is asked to set aside a
    regulation at the core of the State’s powers under
    the Twenty-first Amendment . . . it must proceed with
    particular care.”). In North Dakota, the state enacted
    labeling and reporting requirements to protect its dis-
    tribution system from diversion of imported alcohol
    intended for consumption on federal military bases.
    The regulations raised costs and even caused several
    producers to halt shipments to the military bases rather
    1
    (...continued)
    program). These cases do not show that the Twenty-first
    Amendment can be trumped by just any federal statute. They
    show, in essence, that a state cannot stretch its core Twenty-first
    Amendment powers over transportation and importation of
    alcoholic beverages to nullify federal law’s effects over other
    aspects of the alcoholic beverage business. See Capital Cities
    Cable, Inc. v. Crisp, 
    467 U.S. 691
    , 713 (1984) (“we have held
    that when a State has not attempted directly to regulate the
    sale or use of liquor within its borders—the core § 2 power—
    a conflicting exercise of federal authority may prevail”). These
    cases that fence in to some extent the states’ powers under
    the Twenty-first Amendment should not be understood as
    erasing section 2 of the amendment altogether.
    18                                              No. 11-1362
    than comply. Id. at 429. Finding the regulations to
    be within the state’s core power and directed to the
    legitimate interest of preventing diversion for unlawful
    use in the state, and absent a clear statement about pre-
    emption from Congress, the plurality allowed the in-
    cidental burdens on federal interests — with no inquiry
    into their precise scope other than a conclusion that there
    was no evidence of a substantial burden. Id. at 440, 443-44.
    My colleagues and I agree that the Indiana law prevent-
    ing retailers from using common carriers for direct
    delivery of wine to consumers is an exercise of the state’s
    core Twenty-first Amendment power. We differ in our
    attempts to discern from the Supreme Court’s few hints
    how this sort of preemption challenge to a state’s exercise
    of its core Twenty-first Amendment power should be
    handled.
    One hint appears in Capital Cities Cable, Inc. v. Crisp,
    
    467 U.S. 691
     (1984), where the Supreme Court held that
    a state’s prohibition on national cable television adver-
    tisements for alcoholic beverages was preempted by
    federal law on telecommunications. In any context not
    subject to the Twenty-first Amendment, there would
    have been no doubt that the state law was preempted.
    Because of the Twenty-first Amendment, however, the
    Court proceeded more cautiously. Yet the Court took
    pains to explain that the state law in question was not
    an exercise of the state’s core Twenty-first Amendment
    power: “we have held that when a State has not attempted
    directly to regulate the sale or use of liquor within
    its borders — the core § 2 power — a conflicting exercise
    No. 11-1362                                               19
    of federal authority may prevail.” Id. at 713 (emphasis
    added). Where the state advertising ban was outside the
    core power, the Supreme Court applied a balancing test
    comparable to the one my colleagues apply. Id. at 714-
    15. In my view, however, Capital Cities Cable does not
    offer helpful guidance for dealing with a preemption
    challenge to a state law that is an exercise of core Twenty-
    first Amendment power.
    More helpful is North Dakota v. United States, discussed
    above, which held that a state’s exercise of its core Twenty-
    first Amendment power was not preempted by federal
    law or intergovernmental immunity. The plurality ex-
    plained: “But when the Court is asked to set aside a
    regulation at the core of the State’s powers under the
    Twenty-first Amendment, as when it is asked to
    recognize an implied exemption from state taxation, see
    Rockford Life Ins. Co. v. Illinois Dep’t of Revenue, 
    482 U.S. 182
    , 191 (1987), it must proceed with particular care.
    Capital Cities Cable, 
    467 U.S. at 714
    . Congress has not
    here spoken with sufficient clarity to pre-empt
    North Dakota’s attempt to protect its liquor distribution
    system.” 
    495 U.S. at 439-40
    . The North Dakota plurality
    also wrote: “Given the special protection afforded to
    state liquor control policies by the Twenty-first Amend-
    ment, they are supported by a strong presumption of
    validity and should not be set aside lightly.” 
    Id. at 433
    ,
    citing Capital Cities Cable, 
    467 U.S. at 714
    . I agree with
    my colleagues that a “strong presumption” is not a con-
    clusive presumption, but the Supreme Court itself has
    never held a state’s exercise of its core Twenty-first
    Amendment power to be preempted by federal law, nor
    20                                             No. 11-1362
    has it ever subjected such a law to the sort of balancing
    applied by my colleagues.
    North Dakota did not present the more difficult preemp-
    tion questions that might arise, for example, if Congress
    acted expressly to preempt state alcoholic beverage
    laws for powerful federal reasons, despite the strong
    directive of the Twenty-first Amendment elevating
    those state laws to the status of federal constitutional
    commands. In such cases, the difference between a
    strong presumption and a conclusive presumption
    might be important. We also do not have such a case
    here. The “strong presumption” and “clear statement”
    rule from North Dakota are enough to decide this case
    without any balancing of interests. The FAAAA did not
    provide any clear statement of intent to preempt
    alcoholic beverage laws, and the “strong presumption”
    should save the Indiana law from preemption without
    further inquiry into its effectiveness in preventing under-
    age drinking.
    In support of their balancing of interests on the preemp-
    tion issue, my colleagues cite U.S. Airways, Inc. v.
    O’Donnell, 
    627 F.3d 1318
    , 1330 (10th Cir. 2010), in which
    the Tenth Circuit ordered a district court to undertake
    a balancing of state and federal interests to decide
    whether New Mexico could enforce its alcoholic
    beverage laws, including training requirements for crew
    members, against an airline carrying passengers to
    No. 11-1362                                               21
    and from the state.2 The Tenth Circuit held first that
    federal law occupied the field of aviation safety ex-
    clusively and then that policies and practices for
    serving alcohol to passengers are part of that field. The
    court then turned to the Twenty-first Amendment and
    held that the district court needed to balance New
    Mexico’s core Twenty-first Amendment powers and the
    federal interests underlying the Federal Aviation Act. To
    support the application of balancing, the Tenth Circuit
    cited Capital Cities Cable, which addressed and supports
    balancing only for state alcoholic beverages outside the
    state’s core powers. See 
    627 F.3d at 1329
    , citing Capital
    Cities Cable, 
    467 U.S. at 712-14
    . The Tenth Circuit’s opinion
    read too much into Capital Cities Cable and did not apply
    the “strong presumption” and “clear statement” rule from
    North Dakota. U.S. Airways therefore provides a pretty thin
    basis for extending “balancing” to override the constitu-
    tional protection that the Twenty-first Amendment gave to
    a state’s core powers to control transportation and importa-
    tion of alcoholic beverages for consumption in the state.
    Section 2 of the amendment does not include a proviso
    that it applies only “as long as the state laws are rea-
    sonable and do not unduly intrude on substantial
    federal interests.” That sort of balancing of benefits and
    burdens can be an imposition in and of itself on the
    broad regulatory power granted to states within the
    2
    The case arose after an over-served airline passenger
    killed himself and five other people as he drove home from
    the airport.
    22                                                  No. 11-1362
    relatively narrow core of the Twenty-first Amend-
    ment. Indiana’s prohibition on some direct deliveries of
    wine — whether it makes good sense or not, whether
    it helps prevent underage drinking or not, or whether it
    is merely a convenient compromise for a highly reg-
    ulated and politicized industry — is not preempted by
    the FAAAA because it is an exercise of Indiana’s core
    power under the Twenty-first Amendment. I would
    affirm the district court’s judgment on that basis, with-
    out trying to balance the state’s interests against the
    FAAAA’s deregulatory policies for the trucking business.
    II. The Dormant Commerce Clause and the Twenty-first
    Amendment
    A. Pike Balancing and the Twenty-first Amendment
    “This case pits the twenty-first amendment, which
    appears in the Constitution, against the ‘dormant com-
    merce clause,’ which does not.” Bridenbaugh, 
    227 F.3d at 849
    . A good starting place on the Commerce Clause
    issue is the text of section 2 of the Twenty-first Amend-
    ment: “The transportation or importation into any State,
    Territory, or possession of the United States for delivery
    or use therein of intoxicating liquors, in violation of the
    laws thereof, is hereby prohibited.” That language can
    be read, and was initially read by the Supreme Court, to
    immunize from dormant Commerce Clause challenge
    even state alcohol laws that facially discriminated
    against interstate commerce. See, e.g., State Bd. of Equaliza-
    tion of California v. Young’s Market Co., 
    299 U.S. 59
    , 62-63
    (1936); accord, Ziffrin, Inc. v. Reeves, 
    308 U.S. 132
    , 138 (1939)
    No. 11-1362                                                23
    (“The Twenty-first Amendment sanctions the right of a
    state to legislate concerning intoxicating liquors brought
    from without, unfettered by the Commerce Clause.”).
    More recently, however, the Supreme Court has held
    that the Twenty-first Amendment does not authorize
    express discrimination between intrastate commerce
    and interstate commerce. Granholm, 
    544 U.S. at 485-86
    (abrogating Young’s Market and other cases). The
    Supreme Court has also held that a state may not use
    its Twenty-first Amendment powers to regulate com-
    mercial transactions with no direct connection to the
    state, such as through so-called “price affirmation” stat-
    utes. See, e.g., Healy v. Beer Institute, Inc., 
    491 U.S. 324
    (1989); Brown-Forman Distillers Corp. v. New York State
    Liquor Auth., 
    476 U.S. 573
     (1986).
    Discriminatory and extraterritorial laws are familiar
    categories under the dormant Commerce Clause, and such
    laws rarely survive scrutiny. I agree with my colleagues
    that the challenged Indiana law does not fit into either
    category. As my colleagues point out, there is also
    another body of dormant Commerce Clause law. Under
    the shorthand “Pike balancing,” it applies to state laws
    that regulate evenhandedly between intrastate and in-
    terstate commerce to effectuate legitimate local
    interests, but which also impose incidental burdens on
    interstate commerce. In such cases, the Supreme Court
    has adopted a balancing test. The state law will be
    upheld “unless the burden imposed on such [interstate]
    commerce is clearly excessive in relation to the putative
    local benefits.” Pike v. Bruce Church, Inc., 
    397 U.S. 137
    , 142
    24                                              No. 11-1362
    (1970) (striking down law requiring all cantaloupes in
    Arizona to be transported in closed containers, which
    would have required business that used California pro-
    cessing facility to build new facility in Arizona). The
    Supreme Court, however, has not used Pike balancing
    to strike down any state alcoholic beverage laws. As
    I read the Court’s decisions, it also has not signaled that
    the lower courts should apply Pike balancing to
    alcoholic beverage laws. We should not extend its use
    by applying it here.
    My colleagues point out that the Supreme Court has
    mentioned Pike balancing in a couple of alcoholic beverage
    cases, but a closer look shows that the Court has not
    endorsed Pike balancing for these cases subject to the
    Twenty-first Amendment. In Brown-Forman Distillers, the
    Court cited Pike in its summary of general Commerce
    Clause standards, but it never returned to apply Pike.
    
    476 U.S. at 579
    . Instead, it struck down the New York
    price affirmation statute based on its extraterritorial
    effects. 
    Id. at 583-84
    . And in Bacchus Imports, Ltd. v. Dias,
    
    468 U.S. 263
     (1984), the Court cited Pike only in saying
    that because the Hawaii statute there discriminated
    against interstate commerce, the state was not entitled
    to the more flexible approach of Pike balancing. 
    468 U.S. at 270
    . That passing comment does not amount to even
    a considered dictum teaching that ordinary Pike
    balancing should apply when a state is exercising its
    powers under the Twenty-first Amendment.
    Without any Supreme Court use or endorsement of
    Pike balancing when the Twenty-first Amendment
    applies, my colleagues cite several cases in which we
    No. 11-1362                                              25
    and other circuits seem to have endorsed Pike balancing
    in Commerce Clause challenges to alcohol laws. With
    a closer look, however, we find only the most indirect
    and meager support, without coming to grips with the
    states’ Twenty-first Amendment powers, and without
    recognizing how interest-balancing intrudes upon those
    powers. What we do not find is a case applying
    Pike balancing and holding that a non-discriminatory
    state alcohol law flunks.
    In Baude v. Heath, 
    538 F.3d 608
     (7th Cir. 2008), our
    court accepted the premises of plaintiffs’ legal argu-
    ment and held that they had not come forward with
    evidence sufficient to show that the face-to-face require-
    ment for direct wine shipments imposed an excessive
    burden under Pike. The state itself had urged our court to
    apply Pike. The Baude panel was not asked and did not
    consider whether Pike balancing was ever appropriate
    for alcohol laws in light of the Twenty-First Amend-
    ment, which is not mentioned in the opinion.
    The Baude panel also invalidated a separate provision
    that forbade direct shipments by wineries that also had
    wholesale licenses from other states. 
    Id. at 611-12
    . The
    state had not even defended that wholesaler bar, and it
    was supported by only speculation about benefits. The
    Baude panel concluded that the wholesaler bar was
    facially neutral but discriminatory in effect because
    93 percent of the nation’s wine production was from
    states that allowed producers to sell directly to retailers:
    “The statute is neutral in terms, but in effect it forbids
    interstate shipments direct to Indiana’s consumers,
    while allowing intrastate shipments.” 
    Id. at 612
    .
    26                                              No. 11-1362
    Although that portion of the opinion also cited Pike,
    the invalidation of the wholesaler bar is better under-
    stood as simply an application of Granholm to a state
    statute that had discriminatory effects, not an applica-
    tion of Pike to a statute with only incidental burdens on
    interstate commerce. Given the way the case was
    argued, the Baude panel’s approach is certainly under-
    standable, and I believe its results were correct. The
    Baude opinion does not, however, provide a persuasive
    basis for applying Pike balancing to non-discriminatory
    state alcohol laws.
    In Wine & Spirits Retailers, Inc. v. Rhode Island, 
    481 F.3d 1
     (1st Cir. 2007), the First Circuit considered challenges
    to a host of state alcohol laws. The court briefly men-
    tioned the Twenty-first Amendment, Granholm, Healy,
    and Pike when it introduced the Commerce Clause stan-
    dards. 
    481 F.3d at 10-11
    . The discussion of Pike held
    that plaintiffs failed to show excessive burdens without
    paying any attention to the Twenty-first Amendment.
    
    Id. at 15
    . Without some explanation, that silence does not
    persuade me that Pike balancing is appropriate when
    the amendment applies. If that method of analysis
    were applied more broadly to state alcohol laws, there
    would be little left of states’ powers under section 2
    of the amendment.
    Freeman v. Corzine, 
    629 F.3d 146
    , 164 (3d Cir. 2010), dealt
    with a number of state alcohol laws. The reference to
    Pike was only that plaintiffs had not pursued such a
    theory. That is not an endorsement of Pike balancing
    when the Twenty-first Amendment applies. And in
    Black Star Farms LLC v. Oliver, 
    600 F.3d 1225
    , 1231 (9th Cir.
    No. 11-1362                                              27
    2010), the only reference to Pike balancing was that
    the plaintiffs conceded that the challenged laws would
    survive the test. That is also not an endorsement of
    Pike balancing.
    In Cherry Hill Vineyards, LLC v. Lilly, 
    553 F.3d 423
     (6th
    Cir. 2008), the Sixth Circuit struck down an in-person
    purchase requirement for wineries shipping directly to
    customers. (Unlike the Indiana direct-shipment law we
    upheld in Baude, which allows a buyer to make many
    purchases after one in-person visit, the Kentucky
    law required an in-person visit for each purchase.)
    The plaintiffs pursued a theory of discriminatory effect,
    and the court agreed. That’s also not Pike balancing,
    and the court did not try to reconcile Pike with the Twenty-
    first Amendment.
    This track record does not amount to any convincing
    consensus that Pike balancing is appropriate when the
    Twenty-first Amendment applies to a law. In light of the
    extraordinary protection of state alcoholic beverage
    laws provided by the Twenty-first Amendment and the
    absence of any use of Pike balancing by the Supreme
    Court in such cases, we should not subject state de-
    fendants to the intrusive and uncertain scrutiny
    imposed under the Pike test.
    B. If Pike Balancing Applies
    If a court is going to uphold a challenged law in the
    end, as my colleagues do, one might ask why the method-
    ology makes a difference. I offer two reasons.
    28                                              No. 11-1362
    First, litigating a Pike test is quite intrusive. Even in
    the best of circumstances, Pike balancing puts courts
    in an uncomfortable and almost legislative role. As
    Justice Scalia wrote in his concurring opinion in CTS
    Corp. v. Dynamics Corp. of America, 
    481 U.S. 69
     (1987), the
    Pike “inquiry is ill suited to the judicial function and
    should be undertaken rarely if at all.” 
    481 U.S. at 95
    . “The
    judiciary lacks the time and the knowledge to be able
    to strike a fine balance between the burden that a
    particular state regulation lays on interstate commerce
    and the benefit of that regulation to the state’s legitimate
    interests.” Wiesmueller v. Kosobucki, 
    571 F.3d 699
    , 704
    (7th Cir. 2009). Asking the Pike question — whether a
    burden on state commerce is clearly excessive in relation
    to local benefits? — can be a lot like asking whether a
    blue race-car is clearly faster than it is blue. In extreme
    cases, such cross-categorical comparisons can be useful,
    but Pike balancing invites a wide-open inquiry into com-
    peting policy considerations and debates over the
    efficacy of competing solutions to perceived problems.
    The Pike test thus requires a state agency to mobilize
    personnel, resources, and evidence to justify its policies,
    and often to do so where good evidence may be hard
    to come by. Speculation is not enough to show real
    benefits to weigh against the burdens on Commerce
    Clause plaintiffs. Raymond Motor Transp., Inc. v. Rice, 
    434 U.S. 429
    , 447-48 (1978) (finding a dormant Commerce
    Clause violation where the state offered only speculation
    and “failed to make even a colorable showing that its
    regulations contribute to highway safety”); Baude, 
    538 F.3d at 612
     (Pike balancing requires evidence of both benefits
    No. 11-1362                                                29
    and burdens). Getting beyond speculation can be a chal-
    lenge. It’s one we accept in all other contexts, but section 2
    of the Twenty-first Amendment empowers states to act
    much more freely regarding alcoholic beverages. We
    should not lightly impose on them the burden of
    justifying their policies to federal courts.
    Second, and more important, whether Pike balancing
    applies here will be decisive in other cases, and I believe
    it should actually be decisive in this case. On this point
    I respectfully disagree with my colleagues. Absent the
    effects of the Twenty-first Amendment, plaintiffs should
    have prevailed under Pike. At the very least, given the
    lopsided presentation of evidence — a good deal
    by plaintiffs and nothing but speculation from the
    state — summary judgment for the defense would not
    be justified under Pike.
    Plaintiffs submitted affidavits substantiating the
    burden imposed on their wine fulfillment business and
    on wine consumption by the ban on common carrier
    deliveries of wine club shipments. According to its
    owners, Cap N’ Cork stands to lose up to $45,000 in
    profits each year from its wine-club fulfillment
    business, which it apparently operated throughout
    Indiana via common carrier in violation of the chal-
    lenged law before the state took steps to enforce it. That
    profit corresponds to approximately 13,000 cases of
    wine worth some $1,500,000 to consumers. Much of
    this wine was delivered outside of Fort Wayne and origi-
    nated from some of the thousands of wineries that
    do not have direct shipment permits or access to a
    30                                               No. 11-1362
    licensed wholesaler. My colleagues argue that these are
    merely effects on plaintiffs’ preferred method of doing
    business, not effects on interstate commerce, the latter
    being of course the only effects that matter under the
    dormant Commerce Clause.
    The same might have been said of the facially-neutral
    packaging requirement in Pike itself, and that law
    was struck down. Economies of scale are important in
    analyzing the burdens of the challenged law. From the
    evidence submitted, we can infer that delivery of wine
    on a retail scale by common carriers is much more cost-
    effective than having a retailer use its own employees
    and vehicles to make deliveries. Wine retailers are in
    the business of selling wine, after all, not operating a cost-
    effective home delivery service. The fact that other
    retailers in Indiana are not trying to provide local
    delivery for wine-club fulfillment services tends to
    confirm the extent of the burden rather than undermine
    plaintiffs’ theory. My colleagues’ view also overlooks
    the status of Cap N’ Cork as a participant in a stream
    of commerce that, but for enforcement of 
    Ind. Code § 7.1-3
    -
    15-3(d), allows many small, out-of-state wineries and
    wine clubs to reach wine drinkers like plaintiffs, who
    enjoy a much wider variety of wines beyond those
    carried by the state’s wholesalers.3
    3
    Many of the most celebrated wine-makers in California sell
    primarily to restaurants and their private customer lists, do
    not operate facilities where in-person age verifications could
    occur, and rely exclusively on the fulfillment process to
    reach potential customers in Indiana.
    No. 11-1362                                              31
    Looking beyond just these plaintiffs, we see that the
    wine business in Indiana consists overwhelmingly of out-
    of-state wine. Indiana’s wine production is relatively
    small, with just over 1.7 million gallons of wine bottled in
    2010. See Alcohol and Tobacco Tax and Trade Bureau,
    U.S. Dept. of the Treasury, Statistical Report — Wine
    (2010), available at http://www.ttb.gov/statistics/2010/
    2010wine.pdf (last visited Jan. 9, 2012). Indiana residents
    consumed over 9.7 million gallons of wine in 2010. See
    Beer Institute, Brewers Almanac 2011, available at
    http://www.beerinstitute.org/statistics.asp?bid=200 (last
    visited Jan. 9, 2012). Even if Indiana exported no wine
    at all, over 80 percent of the wine consumed in
    Indiana must come from outside the state. Yet only 86
    of the nearly 6000 out-of-state wineries in the United
    States have obtained direct shipment permits. See Snow
    Interrogs. No. 5. Licensed wholesalers in Indiana carry
    products from just several hundred wineries, among
    the many thousands available in the wider market.
    Plaintiffs buttress their interstate burden argument
    with citations to the FTC Report mentioned so often in
    recent wine cases. See Federal Trade Commission, Possible
    Anticompetitive Barriers to E-Commerce: Wine (2003) at 5-7,
    16-19, 22-26, available at http://www.ftc.gov/os/2003/
    07/winereport2.pdf (last visited Jan. 9, 2012). That report
    suggests that bans on direct shipment dramatically
    reduce consumer choice, in large part because many
    wineries have difficulty obtaining distribution through
    traditional wholesalers and retailers. See, e.g., id. at 24.
    The facially neutral burdens of obtaining retail distribu-
    tion in Indiana fall more heavily on wineries from Cali-
    32                                             No. 11-1362
    fornia, Oregon, and Washington than on wineries
    from Indiana. That does not make the Indiana law dis-
    criminatory, but it describes the incidental effects on
    interstate commerce that invite Pike balancing in other
    contexts.
    Plaintiffs again cite the FTC Report, as well as a report
    from the National Academies of Science, to suggest
    that direct shipment via age-verifying common carriers
    adequately inhibits youth access to wine. See id. at 26-27;
    Granholm, 
    544 U.S. at 490
     (considering the FTC findings).
    There is simply no evidence in the record even sug-
    gesting that wine club shipments of high-end wines are
    a method used by minors seeking to evade age limits.
    As I see the case, Indiana’s problem here is that it has
    chosen to allow some direct deliveries by common carriers
    to consumers, but not others. The selective approach
    undermines the state’s rationale for the challenged law. If
    a consumer has ever visited in person a winery with the
    proper direct-shipping license for Indiana, so that the
    winery could confirm the consumer is at least 21 years old,
    the winery may use a common carrier to make direct
    deliveries to that consumer. 
    Ind. Code § 7.1-3-26
    -9(1)(A).
    The state is satisfied with any adult signature upon
    delivery; it need not be from the consumer whose age
    was verified by the winery. But in many other circum-
    stances, such as the wine clubs that plaintiffs seek to
    join, common carriers may not be used. 
    Ind. Code § 7.1-3
    -
    15-3(d). As a result of this inconsistency, it is hard to
    give much weight to Indiana’s arguments about the
    salutary purposes served by the challenged law.
    No. 11-1362                                              33
    My colleagues suggest that section 7.1-3-15-3(d) reason-
    ably blocks wine club deliveries by common carrier
    because of the lack of face-to-face age verification either
    by an Indiana retail store employee or in an out-of-state
    winery. Indiana requires age-verification training for
    employees of Indiana retailers who may sell wine face-to-
    face or deliver wine directly to customers. 
    Ind. Code § 7.1
    -
    3-1.5-6. Indiana does not (and could not) require such
    training for the out-of-state winery employees, and
    does not require it for delivery drivers who are already
    involved in direct shipments to customers. See 
    Ind. Code §§ 7.1-3-26
    -9, 7.1-3-18-1 et seq. But defendant’s own evi-
    dence showed that 35 percent of (trained) Indiana
    licensees sold alcohol to underage customers in under-
    cover police tests in 2009. Poindexter Aff. ¶ 15. One
    might reasonably conclude from that data, and from the
    absence of any evidence of underage deliveries through
    high-end wine clubs, that the prohibited common
    carrier deliveries pose little threat to the state’s
    legitimate interests. For permitted direct shipments by
    common carrier, the in-person visit to the winery could
    have been years ago, adding little or nothing to the state’s
    confidence level, and the delivery driver needs only an
    adult signature from someone, not necessarily from
    the named buyer. If those arrangements are acceptable
    to the state, it’s hard to see why wine club deliveries
    by common carrier should not be.
    In an attempt to show that the burdens on interstate
    commerce do not clearly outweigh the state’s interest in
    preventing underage drinking, the state relies on
    34                                               No. 11-1362
    conclusory affidavits from two of its excise agents
    asserting that age verification in face-to-face transactions
    is “one effective barrier to youth access” to alcohol. See
    Poindexter Aff. ¶ 6. That’s about it for the defense on
    the merits.
    Such speculation should not be enough to meet the
    state’s burden. Given Indiana’s selective ban on common
    carrier deliveries, under genuine Pike balancing, Indiana
    should need some evidence supporting the notion that
    retailer employees are at least marginally better than
    common carrier employees at obtaining genuine adult
    signatures. In other words, the state should need some
    evidence giving some reason to expect that Cap N’ Cork
    employees are better at face-to-face age verification
    than UPS drivers. As plaintiffs point out, there is simply
    no such evidence in the record. Indiana allows UPS
    delivery drivers to deliver wine for holders of direct
    shipment permits, and it requires a face-to-face verifica-
    tion to be performed by those drivers. See 
    Ind. Code §§ 7.1
    -
    5-10-23, 7.1-3-26-9(2)(B) & (D), and 7.1-3-26-13. Re-
    sponding to interrogatories, the state admitted that it
    had experienced “no difficulties in regulation” and “no
    complaints” regarding common carriers and direct ship-
    ment. Snow Interrogs. No. 9. As far as the stated rationale
    for the challenged law goes, the law is a solution in
    search of a problem.4
    4
    With regard to the favored deliveries by retailer employees,
    though, the state has had some difficulty with retailers’
    “failure to maintain adequate records.” 
    Id.
     at No. 11.
    No. 11-1362                                             35
    When a regulation burdens interstate commerce only
    indirectly and incidentally, we do not require states to
    legislate in the most efficient possible manner. If we are
    applying genuine Pike balancing, though, there must be
    at least some sign of incremental benefit from the state
    regulation. See Pike, 
    397 U.S. at 142
     (“And the extent of
    the burden that will be tolerated will of course depend
    on the nature of the local interest involved, and on
    whether it could be promoted as well with a lesser
    impact on interstate activities.”); see also Raymond
    Motor Transp., 
    434 U.S. at 447-48
     (state failed to produce
    evidence that the permitted 55-foot truck trailers were
    any safer than the prohibited 65-foot trailers). Again,
    speculation about benefits is not enough to satisfy Pike.
    Id.; Baude, 
    538 F.3d at 612
    . Here the state provided
    evidence related to the conceded importance of its
    interest but has left an evidentiary vacuum with regard
    to the efficacy of section 7.1-3-15-3(d) in service of that
    interest. In my view, the Twenty-first Amendment is
    the only rescue for the challenged law, and that’s why
    the district court was correct to enter judgment for
    the defendant.
    *    *   *
    The organization of the alcoholic beverage industry is
    a product of a legal structure from the earlier age
    that first adopted Prohibition and then repealed it with
    the Twenty-first Amendment. What has evolved is a
    collection of Balkanized state markets and legal systems
    that regulate an industry with enormous influence over
    the lawmakers who regulate it. The system can easily
    36                                            No. 11-1362
    devolve into ossified protection of incumbent businesses,
    as with the protection of the three-tier distribution
    system — a model that may seem to have less and less
    value as the internet and e-commerce flatten the global
    marketplace. Yet the extraordinary constitutional status
    given to state alcoholic beverage laws in the Twenty-first
    Amendment was the compromise that allowed the
    repeal of Prohibition. Rather than asking courts to
    erode that compromise, those seeking a more progressive
    organization of the industry should turn to state-by-
    state political action on behalf of consumers who are
    hurt by these laws designed primarily to protect incum-
    bents in the industry.
    1-17-13