United States v. Theodore Richards , 719 F.3d 746 ( 2013 )


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  •                               In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    No. 12-2790
    U NITED S TATES OF A MERICA,
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    v.
    T HEODORE R ICHARDS,
    Defendant-Appellant.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Northern District of Illinois, Eastern Division.
    No. 10 CR 993—Milton I. Shadur, Judge.
    A RGUED A PRIL 5, 2013—D ECIDED JUNE 14, 2013
    Before E ASTERBROOK, Chief Judge, and F LAUM and
    W OOD , Circuit Judges.
    F LAUM, Circuit Judge. As Theodore Richards tells it,
    he was the unwitting stooge of California drug dealers
    who flew him from California to Chicago on a mission
    to pick up and transport money but, unbeknownst to
    him, sent him home with ten kilograms of cocaine in-
    stead. Unfortunately for him, a joint federal-state
    task force had his pick-up site under surveillance in
    2                                             No. 12-2790
    coordination with a controlled buy scheduled to occur
    there that day. Officers stopped Richards, too, and dis-
    covered the cocaine. A jury convicted him of possession
    with intent to distribute after he took the stand in his
    own defense and after the government introduced
    taped phone calls in which Richards talked about
    unrelated drug activity. Richards appealed, challenging
    the district court’s denial of his motion to suppress, its
    denial of his motion to exclude the phone calls under
    Rule 404(b), and the government’s use of the phone call
    evidence during closing arguments. Because the gov-
    ernment improperly relied on the phone calls to
    argue propensity, we now vacate Richards’s conviction
    and remand for a new trial.
    I. Background
    A. Factual Background
    On November 21, 2010, federal and state police took
    up surveillance around the house located at 109 South
    Pinecrest in Bolingbrook, Illinois. In their sights was
    Juan Regalado, a suspected high-level drug dealer.
    Police had converged on the Pinecrest house that day
    because an undercover police officer was scheduled
    to purchase a large amount of cocaine there.
    The operation required some advance work. First, the
    undercover officer met with Regalado at his ranch in
    Frankfort, Illinois. The day of the transaction, Novem-
    ber 21, the officer rendezvoused with a lead car at an
    offsite location and then followed that lead car to the
    No. 12-2790                                                   3
    Pinecrest house. Upon arrival, the lead car left, and the
    officer pulled his car into the driveway. He backed into
    the garage, where the plan called for Regalado’s men
    to load cocaine into a trap compartment accessed
    through the trunk of the officer’s car. Opening the trunk,
    however, prevented the officer from pulling his car com-
    pletely into the garage; this protrusion in turn pre-
    vented the garage door from closing. Regalado’s men
    loaded bags into the trunk, and the officer left. Officers
    later confirmed that the bags contained ten kilograms
    of cocaine. Officers continued surveillance of the
    Pinecrest house because the undercover officer sus-
    pected additional drugs remained on the property.1
    About twenty minutes later, a silver pick-up truck
    arrived. The driver exited the car, entered the home, and
    returned to the truck after a short conversation with
    an occupant of the house. Officer Kenneth Mok, one of
    1
    Richards heavily attacked the government’s reliance on
    the undercover officer’s statements that additional drugs
    remained but the district court ultimately disagreed:
    [Y]ou criticize the Government’s assertion that Officer Mok
    later learned that the undercover officer stated that there
    appeared to be more drugs in the garage. Now, you have
    read “appeared” as literally, that is, something viewed.
    But that usage I think carries the concept of taking all the
    circumstances into account inadequate—“appeared”
    I think is not used there literally but rather it is in the
    terms of—seemed likely is I think a fair reading of the
    use of that word. So an attempt to make sort of a mountain
    out of a nonexistant molehill doesn’t help us a great deal.
    4                                            No. 12-2790
    the surveillance officers, followed the pick-up after it
    departed the Pinecrest property. The truck ultimately
    met another car in a mall parking lot, a gray Lexus. The
    truck drove slowly past the Lexus and, as far as
    Officer Mok could tell, neither driver communicated
    with the other. The pick-up led the Lexus back to the
    Pinecrest house and then left. The Lexus, meanwhile,
    backed into the garage. The garage door closed. When it
    reopened ten minutes later, the Lexus emerged and drove
    away from the property with Officer Mok following
    behind.
    While tailing the Lexus, Officer Mok received confirma-
    tion that the substance loaded into the undercover
    officer’s car had tested positive for cocaine. After an
    hour of surveillance during which the Lexus violated no
    traffic laws, Officer Mok stopped the car. The defendant,
    Theodore Richards, was driving the car, and Nickelle
    Rodgers sat in the passenger seat. Officers questioned
    the pair.
    Richards presented a California driver’s license and,
    when asked who owned the car, admitted several times
    that it was not his. He never named the owner, however,
    until Officer Mok asked if the name “Jason Cook”—which
    Officer Mok had obtained from the vehicle registra-
    tion—sounded familiar. According to Richards, Cook
    was his cousin. Richards told Mok he had flown in
    from Bakersfield, California, and had picked up Rodgers
    from Indianapolis to go on a date. The two were on
    their way to get something to eat, Richards explained.
    For her part, Rodgers told the police that she and
    Richards had been playing video games at another
    No. 12-2790                                             5
    house and were on their way to grab a bite to eat. Neither
    mentioned their stop at the Pinecrest house.
    Without consent, police searched the car and found
    a backpack in the trunk. It contained about ten
    kilograms of cocaine. Both Richards and Rodgers
    denied ownership of the bag and both were arrested.
    None of the officers involved in the operation had—before
    the gray Lexus arrived at the Pinecrest property—any
    information connecting either Richards or Rodgers
    with Regalado nor did the officers have any specific
    information (aside from the undercover officer’s sug-
    gestion that more drugs may have been at the Pinecrest
    house) suggesting another drug deal would occur that day.
    B. Procedural History
    The government charged Richards with one count of
    possession of more than five kilograms of cocaine with
    intent to distribute. Richards moved to suppress the
    cocaine, arguing that the government lacked probable
    cause to stop and search the gray Lexus. The district
    court disagreed, concluding that Richards “tr[ied] to
    separate the strands of the information on which the
    officers acted as though they somehow ought to be
    looked at separately rather than together.” And viewing
    all the information together—the undercover officer’s
    drug buy, the similarities between the undercover
    officer’s approach and Richards’s approach in the gray
    Lexus, and the undercover officer’s suggestion that
    the Pinecrest property may have housed more drugs—the
    6                                              No. 12-2790
    district court found probable cause. It denied the
    motion, and the case proceeded to trial.
    At trial, Richards’s primary defense rested on the
    assertion that he thought the backpack contained money,
    not drugs. He took the stand in furtherance of that de-
    fense. According to Richards’s testimony, he had borrowed
    $50,000 from some Latinos that he knew collectively only
    as the Pelon brothers. He needed the money to start a
    trucking company with his cousin, but the company
    faltered when his cousin—the driver—became ill.
    Unable to repay his loan, the Pelons enlisted Richards’s
    assistance transporting packages, telling him that his help
    would repay the debt. According to Richards, he trans-
    ported several packages for the Pelons, all of which he
    opened (against orders from the Pelons) and all of which
    contained money. Usually, Richards would communicate
    with the Pelons and obtain his instructions by meeting
    them at a ranch. Each time he visited the ranch, he testi-
    fied, about thirty people were present “doing work and
    doing things.” Moreover, Richards explained that at the
    ranch, “[e]verybody called each other Pelon. That
    was the term that they used amongst each other.”
    Richards also told the jury why he thought the Pelons
    wanted his trips transporting money to remain secret:
    Well, I knew [the Pelons] were over here illegally. And
    they ran a lot of different businesses and stuff. And
    I also knew about strip clubs and prostitution. And
    I was being told about things about people sneaking
    over through the border, or whatever. That is
    what they said. There was also like—people that
    No. 12-2790                                            7
    were also out at the ranch, they were also involved in
    drugs. But they never told me so I don’t know.
    Finally, Richards explained how the trip that led to
    his arrest came about. He received instructions from
    “Pelon” and was told he would travel to Chicago to
    transport money. As instructed, he waited until a
    gray truck drove by and then proceeded to the Pinecrest
    property where individuals loaded a dark backpack into
    his trunk. According to Richards, he was “shocked, con-
    fused” when officers removed the cocaine from his
    trunk because “[i]t wasn’t supposed to be in [his] car.”
    Richards also testified that he had never been told he
    would pick up drugs in any of his “conversations with
    the Pelon brothers or with their associates.”
    In cross-examining the defendant, the government
    asked Richards if he had ever talked on the phone with
    a man named Juan Beltran, which the defendant denied.
    The government also accused Richards of conversing
    with Beltran or another person regarding the need to
    obtain drugs. Richards admitted that he used marijuana
    but specifically denied discussing cocaine with anyone.
    On re-direct, Richards told the jury that he would talk
    with his brothers Lou and Chuckie about marijuana.
    Lou, he explained, was at the Pelon brothers’ ranch “all
    the time.” And while Lou was at the ranch, Richards
    continued, he went by the name “Pelon.” Lou, however,
    was not involved in Richards’s trip to Chicago that ulti-
    mately culminated in Richards’s arrest.
    Given this testimony, the government offered a brief
    rebuttal case involving taped phone conversations
    8                                            No. 12-2790
    between Richards and a Bakersfield man named Juan
    Beltran. According to Drug Enforcement Administration
    Agent Shawn Riley, who monitored the wiretap on
    Beltran’s phone during an unrelated investigation,
    Beltran also went by the alias “Pelon.” The conversations
    all occurred in the days leading up to Richards’s arrest.
    In them, Beltran and Richards discussed drug quantity
    and drug quality. Although Beltran and Richards never
    specifically mentioned any drugs by name, Riley testi-
    fied that, based on his prior experience investigating
    drug transactions and listening to wiretaps, the language
    Beltran and Richards used indicated that the two
    were discussing cocaine.
    Richards moved to exclude the phone calls as improper
    prior bad acts evidence. See Fed. R. Evid. 404(b). In the
    two months that Riley listened to the wiretap on
    Beltran’s phone, Beltran never talked about transporting
    money or drugs in Bolingbrook. According to Richards,
    these tapes were improper evidence because the gov-
    ernment could not show that Beltran (also known as
    Pelon) was the same Pelon who sent Richards to Chi-
    cago. Richards also challenged introduction of the evi-
    dence on grounds that the government did not
    comply with Rule 404(b)’s notice requirement. For its
    part, the government acknowledged no definitive con-
    nection between Beltran and the Pelon brothers. Never-
    theless, the government argued that nexus to the criminal
    trafficking in this case was unnecessary: Richards had
    professed complete ignorance as to how the drug trade
    worked and these phone conversations undermined
    that assertion by showing Richards’s familiarity with the
    drug trade more generally, thus proving probative of
    No. 12-2790                                             9
    Richards’s knowledge that the bag contained cocaine.
    See Fed. R. Evid. 404(b)(2) (permitting use of prior bad
    act to show defendant’s knowledge). The district court
    agreed and, after a voir dire of Agent Riley and review
    of the tapes, permitted Agent Riley to testify regarding
    some but not all of the conversations between Beltran
    and Richards.
    This evidence of the phone calls between Beltran and
    Richards became the centerpiece of the government’s
    closing argument. Shortly into the argument, the pros-
    ecutor began referring to Richards as a “cocaine dealer.”
    With little delay, the government explained how it
    reached this conclusion: the California calls required it.
    In particular, the prosecutor identified one call between
    Beltran and Richards in which Richards complained of
    poor quality drugs. “[T]he defendant knew this cocaine
    was terrible quality based on the packaging and just by
    looking at it,” the prosecutor told the jury. “How does
    he know that?” she asked. “Because he is a drug traf-
    ficker.” At this point, defense counsel objected, sug-
    gesting that the California calls were being used for
    propensity in violation of Rule 404. The district court
    admonished defense counsel for interjecting during
    closing arguments but did provide a mid-argument
    instruction that cautioned the jury against inferring
    guilt solely from evidence of Richards’s prior bad acts.
    The government pressed on, continuing to characterize
    Richards as a “cocaine dealer” and a “drug trafficker” and
    arguing that such status required the inference that
    Richards knew the backpack contained drugs, not
    money. For example, immediately after quoting defen-
    10                                              No. 12-2790
    dant’s words in the phone calls, the prosecutor told the
    jury: “Now, based upon the defendant’s own conduct
    on November 21st, 2010 and his own statements, when
    you use your common sense, there can be only one con-
    clusion, the defendant, a cocaine dealer, knew exactly
    what he was transporting on November 21st of 2010.”
    The theme continued in rebuttal:
    •   The only thing that is disputed is whether the
    defendant knew he had just picked up ten kilo-
    grams of cocaine. And in answering that question
    think about what is reasonable and what makes
    sense. And there is [sic] two things in particular
    that will help you answer that question. The de-
    fendant is a cocaine dealer and the defendant is
    a liar.
    •   But if we have met our burden on the instruction
    that will be given, then the California calls are
    absolutely relevant to knowledge and intent on
    November 21st. And the Judge will instruct you
    as much. To think that that is not relevant is ab-
    surd. He is a cocaine dealer.
    •   The problem is you have heard what the defendant
    sounds like when he doesn’t think anyone is
    listening, when he doesn’t think anyone is watch-
    ing. You heard the calls. You reviewed the tran-
    scripts. When he doesn’t think anyone is listening,
    he is a cocaine dealer. When he thinks people
    are watching and listening, he is back to poor me,
    I was just delivering money to pay back the
    loan. That is absurd.
    No. 12-2790                                              11
    •   And we are not saying the ten kilos of cocaine
    were connected to the intercepted call from Cali-
    fornia. We are not arguing that. We are not saying
    that. Clearly the defendant’s drug dealing is not
    limited to California. It happens here too.
    •   These layers of concealment are used to give
    drug dealers plausible deniability. But that
    doesn’t work for the defendant because we
    already know he is a cocaine dealer.
    The government relied solely on the California calls as
    evidence to support its characterization of Richards as
    a drug dealer. And it did not connect drug dealing in
    the abstract with the specific patterns in this case.
    For example, nothing in closing remarks suggested
    that drug couriers (as opposed to money couriers) use
    the lead-car approach or that a drug dealer would
    know that a pick-up conducted as occurred in this case
    would involve drugs, not money.
    At the end of closing arguments, defense counsel re-
    quested a sidebar and again complained that the gov-
    ernment had used the California calls to argue propen-
    sity. The district court again disagreed, stating “I don’t
    think that is fair. I think that the ‘don’t believe him’ was
    contrasting his statements with what they say the evidence
    reflects. And that is perfectly permissible.”
    Richards now appeals the district court’s denial of
    his motion to suppress. He also challenges the district
    court’s decision to admit the California calls and
    its approval of the government’s use of those calls
    in closing.
    12                                                  No. 12-2790
    II. Discussion
    A. The Undercover Officer’s Controlled Buy Generated
    Probable Cause to Search the Gray Lexus
    The Fourth Amendment protects citizens against unrea-
    sonable searches and seizures. Ordinarily, warrantless
    searches are presumptively unreasonable. Cars, however,
    are exempted from the warrant requirement provided
    officers have probable cause to believe the car contains
    contraband. United States v. Slone, 
    636 F.3d 845
    , 848 (7th
    Cir. 2011); see also Florida v. White, 
    526 U.S. 559
    , 564-65
    (1999); Carroll v. United States, 
    267 U.S. 132
    , 160-62 (1925).
    When officers have such probable cause, the search may
    extend to “all parts of the vehicle in which contraband
    or evidence could be concealed, including closed com-
    partments, containers, packages, and trunks.” 2 United
    States v. Williams, 
    627 F.3d 247
    , 251 (7th Cir. 2010). We
    review de novo a district court’s conclusion regarding
    probable cause. 
    Id.
    Probable cause exists when “based on the known
    facts and circumstances, a reasonably prudent person
    would believe that contraband or evidence of a crime
    will be found in the place to be searched.” 
    Id.
     This
    requires a “common-sense judgment” based upon the
    2
    This probable cause also justifies the initial, warrantless stop
    of the car that, as a seizure under the Fourth Amendment,
    requires its own justification—be it the reasonable suspicion
    needed for a Terry stop or the probable cause necessary for
    a full stop. E.g., United States v. Bueno, 
    703 F.3d 1053
    , 1059
    (7th Cir. 2013).
    No. 12-2790                                                13
    totality of the circumstances. Officers may “draw rea-
    sonable inferences based on their training and experi-
    ence in making that determination.” 
    Id.
     Probable cause
    does not require information sufficient to support con-
    viction or even enough to show a preponderance of
    the evidence. 
    Id. at 252
    . A “fair probability of discovering
    contraband” is enough. 
    Id.
     Richards presents a close
    case. Nevertheless, we believe that the facts and circum-
    stances known to officers at the time of the stop pro-
    vided probable cause to believe the Lexus had picked
    up drugs during its brief stop at the Pinecrest residence.
    As a result, officers had a “fair probability of discovering
    contraband” in the gray Lexus, justifying the stop and
    search under the Fourth Amendment.
    First, officers knew their inside man had purchased
    ten kilograms of cocaine at the Pinecrest residence less
    than an hour before the gray Lexus arrived.3 The white
    substance loaded into the trunk of the undercover
    officer’s car had been confirmed as cocaine through a
    field chemical test before Officer Mok stopped the
    Lexus. Second, officers knew that the approach of the
    gray Lexus mirrored that of their undercover officer:
    At a different location, both cars met another vehicle
    3
    Our reliance on the timing of the undercover officer’s high-
    volume drug purchase relative to Richards’s arrival does
    not establish any rigid, temporal requirements for finding
    probable cause. Instead, we simply note that, on these facts
    and circumstances, the relative timing of the undercover
    officer’s buy and Richards’s arrival at the Pinecrest house
    supports officers’ probable cause determination.
    14                                            No. 12-2790
    that led them to the Pinecrest residence. After arrival,
    the lead car left as both Richards and the undercover
    officer backed into the garage where both remained for
    less than ten minutes. And after that short period had
    elapsed, both cars left the Pinecrest house. Given all
    this information, a reasonable officer could say with a
    fair probability that the gray Lexus had picked up
    drugs from the Pinecrest house.
    Unsurprisingly, Richards emphasizes what remained
    unknown to the police. According to him, the police had
    no evidence linking him to Juan Regalado, the target of
    their sting, and no information indicating a second,
    scheduled drug purchase that day. But “[o]ne can
    always point out informational gaps, [and] the probable
    cause inquiry asks what a law enforcement officer knew
    rather than what he did not.” Slone, 
    636 F.3d at 849
    . No
    doubt, these facts would have solidified probable cause
    but their absence does not lessen the probable cause
    generated by the highly unusual approach the Lexus
    took to arrive at the Pinecrest residence, when an under-
    cover officer had used the exact same approach (albeit
    with a different lead car) to arrive at the house in anti-
    cipation of purchasing a large amount of drugs.
    Indeed, officers need no advance notice that a drug
    deal will occur to have probable cause that they have just
    witnessed one. In United States v. Funches, for example,
    officers knew none of the defendants was “the man for
    whom they were looking and had no information that
    [they] were involved in drug trafficking[.]” 
    327 F.3d 582
    ,
    584 (7th Cir. 2003). The officers followed defendants’ car
    No. 12-2790                                            15
    anyway. In doing so, they eventually witnessed defen-
    dants’ car meet a Nissan Altima in a supermarket parking
    lot. 
    Id.
     After brief interaction among the occupants of
    the cars, defendants’ car led the Altima to an alley and
    then drove to a nearby apartment. A woman exited the
    apartment with a gray bag and passed that bag through
    the window of defendants’ car, which returned to the
    alley. 
    Id.
     At that point, the defendants in the two cars
    exchanged the gray bag for a gold bag. 
    Id.
     That sequence
    of events, Funches concluded, provided officers with
    probable cause to believe a drug deal occurred because
    “agents would recognize such action as consistent with
    common precautions taken by dealers in drug transac-
    tions.” 
    Id. at 586-87
    .
    And in Williams, officers suspected drug activity at a
    particular residence. They confirmed that activity
    through wiretapped phone calls and the arrest of an
    individual leaving the house with a package containing
    two kilograms of cocaine. 627 F.3d at 251-52. Additional
    phone calls suggested a meeting at the residence with a
    “black guy.” Id. at 249. This prior drug activity combined
    with the phone call describing the meeting provided
    probable cause to search a car when the Williams defen-
    dants had entered the residence with a shoebox, left
    fifteen minutes later carrying the same shoebox, and
    then drove away. Id. at 251-52.
    The officers’ knowledge in this case combines the
    suspicious vehicular relocation of Funches with the
    prior confirmation of drug activity in Williams. The cir-
    cuitous approach that Richards took to the Pinecrest
    16                                              No. 12-2790
    house—meeting another car at an offsite location that
    led Richards to the house—is not unlike the sequence of
    events in Funches and not the sort of travel that an
    innocent acquaintance would employ when visiting a
    friend.4 See also Slone, 
    636 F.3d at 850-51
     (probable cause
    to find involvement in drug transaction when one car
    followed another car, known to contain drugs, for a
    circuitous and extended route); United States v. Soto,
    
    375 F.3d 1219
    , 1222-23 (10th Cir. 2004) (probable cause
    to find involvement in drug transaction when vehicle
    entered gas station parking lot near site of deal, slowly
    circled, and parked without patronizing gas station).
    Indeed, the vehicular maneuvering in this case—meeting
    a lead car at a different location who would escort the
    buyer to the Pinecrest residence—justifies even stronger
    conclusions of suspicious activity because unlike in
    Funches, an undercover officer had participated in
    nearly identical maneuvers immediately prior to pur-
    chasing drugs.
    And just as in Williams, where officers confirmed
    drug dealing activity through a prior arrest, 627 F.3d at
    251-52, here, officers had prior confirmation of drug
    dealing activity through the undercover officer’s recent
    4
    Richards suggests some ambiguity regarding whether both
    cars backed into the garage. The district court did not make
    explicit factual findings in this regard but, in denying the
    motion to suppress, did appear to credit the government’s
    testimony over that of the defendant. In any event, the out-
    come of this case does not hinge on that fact.
    No. 12-2790                                                  17
    purchase. 5 Indeed, Williams itself highlights the factual
    similarity to this case: “[T]he totality of the facts and
    circumstances—that [the defendants] met Hinojosa and
    Barmbila (suspected drug dealers) at the Monitor
    residence (a suspected stash house), where agents knew
    Hinojosa and Barmbila had carried out a drug transac-
    tion as recently as the day before, and that [the
    defendants] left that meeting carrying a shoebox (in
    which they could conceal drugs)—were sufficient to
    create probable cause even absent such details in the
    [wiretapped] calls.” Id. at 252. Officers’ knowledge in
    this case presents nearly identical facts and circum-
    stances. Richards met suspected drug dealers at a sus-
    pected stash house and left the property in precisely
    the same way a confirmed buyer had left not an hour
    5
    Richards finds Williams less analogous to this case because
    in Williams, the police had intercepted phone conversations
    suggesting a “meeting” with a “black guy” at the residence
    where officers had previously observed the drug activity. 627
    F.3d at 249. But as explained above, probable cause does not
    require advance notice that a drug deal will occur. All it
    requires is a “fair probability” based on all the facts that a
    drug deal occurred. Nor does the fact that Richards’s lead car
    differed from the escort provided to the undercover officer
    distinguish Williams, as Richards suggests. Drug dealing
    operations are not shielded from probable cause simply
    by hiring different individuals to fill similar roles in the or-
    ganization.
    18                                                No. 12-2790
    before.6 On top of all this stands Officer Mok’s extensive
    experience investigating drug operations: a twenty-
    year veteran of the Chicago Police Department, Mok
    had spent four years on the DEA task force at the
    time of the Richards arrest. Thus, the “totality of the
    circumstances”—and the factual similarity to both
    Funches and Williams—“when considered in light of
    [Officer Mok’s] training and experience, gave [him]
    sufficient reason to believe that there was a significant
    probability that” Richards had committed a crime.
    United States v. Parra, 
    402 F.3d 752
    , 765 (7th Cir. 2005).
    Richards relies heavily on the well-settled proposition
    that mere proximity to suspected criminal activity
    does not, without more, generate probable cause.
    Richards accurately states the law, see United States v.
    Bohman, 
    683 F.3d 861
    , 864 (7th Cir. 2012); United States v.
    Ingrao, 
    897 F.2d 860
    , 863 (7th Cir. 1990); see also Illinois v.
    Wardlaw, 
    528 U.S. 119
    , 124 (2000); United States v. Ceballos,
    
    654 F.2d 177
    , 185 (2d Cir. 1981), but this rule does not
    apply to him: officers could reasonably conclude from
    his actions and the undercover officer’s reports that
    Richards was not simply proximate to criminal activity
    but a participant in it. Neither Bohman nor Ingrao aids
    Richards as much as he suggests. In Bohman, police
    stopped a car exiting property that officers suspected of
    6
    Richards disputes the government’s characterization of the
    Pinecrest property as a stash house. Regardless of how one
    defines “stash house,” no one disputes that an undercover
    officer had purchased ten kilograms of cocaine there.
    No. 12-2790                                              19
    housing a methamphetamine lab. 683 F.3d at 863-64.
    That suspicion resulted from a tip they had received,
    but when police stopped the car, they had not yet cor-
    roborated the tip in any way. Id. at 864-65. Bohman
    found no reasonable suspicion for the stop because the
    only information pointing to criminal activity was the
    defendant’s emergence from property that an uncorrobo-
    rated tip accused of housing a meth lab. Id. That alone
    was insufficient.
    Ingrao involved similar facts. Officers in that case ar-
    rested the defendant after he emerged from a gangway
    between two houses while carrying a black, opaque
    bag. 
    897 F.2d at 861
    . Officers could not, however, connect
    the Ingrao defendant to the house on either side of the
    gangway. 
    Id. at 863-64
    . That fact proved significant, for
    one of the houses belonged to an individual whom
    police had been investigating. 
    Id. at 861
    . Police had,
    however, observed suspicious activity by other indi-
    viduals emerging from the gangway. 
    Id.
     Ultimately,
    police lacked probable cause to arrest the Ingrao
    defendant because his only connection to the previously
    observed suspicious activity was his presence in the
    gangway between the two homes. 
    Id. at 863-64
    .
    Richards is unlike the defendants in Bohman and
    Ingrao. For one thing, officers did not act merely on uncor-
    roborated information. The Pinecrest house was a con-
    firmed drug den—an undercover officer had just pur-
    chased ten kilos of cocaine there and suspected still
    more product remained. Thus, officers had far more
    incriminatory information regarding activity at the
    20                                              No. 12-2790
    Pinecrest house than the Bohman officers did in their
    uncorroborated tip. For another, Richards did not
    simply emerge from the location of criminal activity as
    both the Bohman and Ingrao defendants did. Perhaps
    Bohman and Ingrao would require reversal if officers’
    first glimpsed Richards as he pulled out of the
    Pinecrest garage. But they saw much more: They saw a
    lead car leave the Pinecrest property and meet him in a
    parking lot. They saw him follow that car back to the
    Pinecrest property. And they saw him back into the
    garage, and then leave. Each of these actions directly
    mirrored the approach of the undercover officer in his
    drug buy, thereby permitting the reasonable inference
    that, like the officer, Richards arrived to pick up drugs.
    Thus, there is “far more in this case . . . than . . . mere
    physical proximity” to the criminal activity. United
    States v. Burrell, 
    963 F.2d 976
    , 987 (7th Cir. 1992).
    In short, the facts known to officers created a fair proba-
    bility that Richards’s car contained drugs, even though
    officers had never before seen Richards and had no
    prior indication that Richards planned to pick up large
    amounts of cocaine from the Pinecrest residence. An
    undercover officer had previously purchased large
    amounts of cocaine from the property and believed
    more drug product remained onsite. Less than an hour
    after the undercover officer left, Richards arrived under
    the same travel protocol that the undercover officer
    used when purchasing the drugs. These facts and cir-
    cumstances generate a fair probability that Richards
    had picked up drugs just as the undercover officer had.
    No. 12-2790                                             21
    We emphasize again that Richards presents a close
    case. Were it not for the undercover officer’s drug
    purchase within the hour and the strong similarity
    between the actions of the undercover officer and the
    gray Lexus, the police would surely have lacked prob-
    able cause to stop Richards. As such, that the Lexus
    followed another car to the Pinecrest residence would
    not, standing alone, provide probable cause. Likewise,
    neither would the Lexus’s association with the Pinecrest
    property solely provide probable cause. But the com-
    bination of Richards’s behavior and the undercover offi-
    cer’s high-volume drug buy less than an hour before is
    enough. For that reason, we affirm the district court’s
    denial of Richards’s motion to suppress.
    B. The District Court Did Not Abuse Its Discretion in
    Admitting the California Calls as Probative of
    Knowledge
    We also find no error in the district court’s admission
    of the California calls. Evidence of a defendant’s prior
    bad acts is inadmissible to show propensity to commit
    a crime. Fed. R. Evid. 404(b)(1). Such evidence is admissi-
    ble, however, if the evidence is relevant to an issue in
    question other than the defendant’s propensity to
    commit the charged crime. Fed. R. Evid. 404(b)(2); e.g.,
    United States v. Baker, 
    655 F.3d 677
    , 681 (7th Cir. 2011).
    Additionally, we also consider whether the prior acts
    are similar enough and close enough in time to be
    relevant and whether the evidence is sufficient to
    support a jury finding that the defendant committed the
    22                                              No. 12-2790
    act. E.g., Baker, 
    655 F.3d at 681
    . Finally, as with all
    evidence, the danger of unfair prejudice must not sub-
    stantially outweigh its probative value. Fed. R. Evid.
    403; see also Baker, 
    655 F.3d at 681-82
    .
    We review the district court’s admission of evidence
    under Rule 404(b) for an abuse of discretion. Even when
    an abuse of discretion occurs, however, reversal fol-
    lows only if admission of the evidence affected the de-
    fendant’s “substantial rights.” Fed. R. Crim. P. 52(a);
    United States v. Hicks, 
    635 F.3d 1063
    , 1069 (7th Cir. 2011).
    In making that evaluation, we “gauge what effect the
    error had or reasonably may be taken to have had upon
    the jury’s decision.” Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at
    1069 (citing United
    States v. Zapata, 
    871 F.2d 616
    , 622 (7th Cir. 1989)). Impor-
    tantly, nothing “suggest[s] that after-the-fact remarks
    during closing argument have any bearing on the
    district court’s original Rule 404(b) determination.” United
    States v. Kieffer, 68 F. App’x 726, 730 (7th Cir. 2003)
    (non-precedential). Thus, the prosecutor’s use of
    Rule 404(b) evidence during closing presents a question
    separate from whether the court properly admitted
    the evidence in the first place.
    Richards wages three attacks on the district court’s
    admission of the California calls. First, he argues that the
    tapes are not relevant to knowledge, the non-propensity
    issue proffered to justify their admission. Second, he
    argues that the cocaine transactions discussed on the
    tapes are not similar enough or temporally proximate
    enough to be relevant. And third, Richards argues that
    the potential for unfair prejudice outweighs the proba-
    tive value of the evidence.
    No. 12-2790                                                   23
    1.   The California Calls Are Relevant to Richards’s
    Knowledge That the Bag Contained Cocaine
    We have recently cautioned that district courts have
    too readily admitted prior bad acts evidence in drug
    cases. United States v. Miller, 
    673 F.3d 688
    , 696 (7th Cir.
    2012) (“[A]dmission of prior drug crimes to prove
    intent to commit present drug crimes has become too
    routine.”); see also United States v. Jones, 
    389 F.3d 753
    , 756-58
    (7th Cir. 2004), vacated on other grounds by 
    545 U.S. 1125
    (2005). Rule 404, however, does not present an insur-
    mountable barrier to admission of prior bad acts evi-
    dence. To begin, “[i]dentification of an at-issue,
    non-propensity Rule 404(b) exception is a necessary
    condition for admitting the evidence[.]” Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 697
    . Thus, district courts must consider “specifically
    how the prior conviction tend[s] to” serve the non-pro-
    pensity exception. 
    Id. at 699
     (emphasis added). Addition-
    ally, not only must the evidence be relevant to a valid non-
    propensity issue, the a defendant must also “meaning-
    fully dispute” that non-propensity issue. Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 697
    .
    We find both requirements satisfied in Richards’s case
    and thus see no error in the district court finding the
    California calls probative of a non-propensity purpose.
    First, knowledge is a valid non-propensity purpose,
    and Richards placed his knowledge of the bag’s contents
    directly at issue when he took the stand and testified
    that he believed the bag contained money, not drugs.
    Second, a “specific” link exists between the calls and
    Richards’s testimony, making the calls relevant to his
    knowledge of the bag’s contents.
    24                                            No. 12-2790
    a.   Richards’s Defense Put His Knowledge of the
    Bag’s Contents Directly in Issue
    A defendant must “meaningfully dispute” the non-
    propensity issue justifying admission of the Rule 404(b)
    evidence. Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 697
    . Thus, if the defendant
    simply asserts his innocence in a more general way or
    argues his conduct failed to satisfy some other element of
    the crime besides intent or knowledge, prior bad acts
    evidence is inadmissible. 
    Id.
     Miller illustrates the more
    general defense assertions that would not meaningfully
    dispute a Rule 404(b) exception. In that case, the defen-
    dant—on trial for possession with intent to distribute—
    did not dispute intent. (That police found the large quan-
    tity of drugs at issue packaged into smaller bags with
    price tags attached made that a tough sell.) Nor did he
    suggest he failed to recognize the substance as cocaine.
    Instead, he argued simply that the drugs belonged to
    his girlfriend. 
    Id. at 699
    . His defense did not meaning-
    fully dispute intent or knowledge so introduction of his
    prior convictions for drug offenses proved intent only
    to the extent that intent collapsed into propensity:
    “He intended to do it before . . . so he must have
    intended to do it again.” Id.; cf. Jones, 
    389 F.3d at 757
    (“Propensity and intent are two different things, how-
    ever, even if only a fine line sometimes distinguishes
    them.”).
    Richards directly and specifically disputed his knowl-
    edge of the bag’s contents. On the stand, Richards de-
    scribed traveling to a ranch with at least thirty indi-
    viduals on the property, all known as “Pelon.” He
    No. 12-2790                                                    25
    also admitted his awareness             of   criminal    activity
    originating from the ranch:
    And [the Pelon brothers] ran a lot of businesses and
    stuff. And I also knew about strip clubs and prostitu-
    tion. And I was being told about things about people
    sneaking over through the border, or whatever. That
    is what they said. There was also like—people that
    were also out at the ranch, they were also involved
    in drugs. But they never told me that, so I don’t know.
    (Emphasis added.) He acknowledged that his own
    brother purchased drugs, marijuana, at the ranch and
    that, while there, his brother went by “Pelon” just like
    everyone else. And Richards also explained how his trip
    to Bolingbrook originated at the Pelon ranch—a trio of
    brothers, all known as Pelon, brought him to the ranch
    where he received instructions about picking up and
    transporting money to pay back a debt. Thus, Richards
    told the jury, when he picked up the bag from the
    Pinecrest house, he believed it contained money and
    not drugs.7
    7
    We pause to note that trafficking drug money is, under
    most circumstances, no less a federal crime than trafficking
    the drugs themselves. See 
    21 U.S.C. § 846
     (criminalizing con-
    spiracy to violate the drug laws); cf. United States v. Saenz, 
    623 F.3d 461
     (7th Cir. 2010) (affirming conviction under § 846
    when defendant transported drug money). The government
    did not charge Richards with conspiracy, however, allowing
    him to argue that the Pelon brothers limited his involve-
    ment in their illicit business endeavors only to that of a
    money courier.
    26                                            No. 12-2790
    This testimony places his knowledge squarely in issue
    and raises essentially the same circumstances as United
    States v. Moore. In that case, officers arrested the
    defendant after he tossed a bag of drugs out his car win-
    dow. 
    531 F.3d 496
    , 500 (7th Cir. 2008). At trial, he
    argued that “the driver of the stolen vehicle, in which
    he was a passenger, gave Mr. Moore the bag and told
    him to toss it, without telling him what was in it.” 
    Id.
    That defense, Moore concluded, put knowledge directly
    at issue. 
    Id.
     Richards raises nearly the identical
    defense here—that someone gave him a bag filled
    with drugs but he thought it contained something
    else. Thus, Richards, like the Moore defendant, put knowl-
    edge squarely at issue and opened the door to any
    prior bad acts evidence relevant to knowledge. See
    Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1069-70
    .
    b. The California Calls Are Relevant to Richards’s
    Knowledge of Drug Trafficking at the Pelon
    Ranch
    Relevant evidence has a tendency to make a fact of
    consequence more or less probable. Fed. R. Evid. 401;
    see also United States v. Gomez, No. 12-1104, 
    2013 WL 1352540
    , at *6 (7th Cir. Apr. 5, 2013). Thus, admission of
    the California tapes requires a “persuasive and specific”
    reason why the tapes make it more or less probable
    that Richards knew the bag contained cocaine rather
    than money. See Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 699
    . A specific and
    persuasive reason exists here: Beltran’s Pelon alias links
    him to the ranch so tapes of Richards discussing drugs
    No. 12-2790                                                27
    with Beltran suggest Richards knew of drug trafficking
    that originated from the ranch.
    Richards disagrees, suggesting that Miller controls
    because, as in Miller, the prior bad acts evidence proves
    knowledge only to the extent that knowledge collapsed
    into propensity. See 
    id. at 697-99
    . That would be true
    and Richards would be right if the California calls
    captured some generic conversation about drugs wholly
    unconnected to the drug operation that brought
    Richards to Bolingbrook. But the content of the
    California calls—Richards speaking about cocaine with
    a man known as “Pelon”—does relate to the Boling-
    brook operation: Richards took his marching orders
    from a group of individuals who, like all others present
    at the ranch, shared that pseudonym.8 That common
    monicker links Beltran to the ranch and directly
    undercuts Richards’s testimony that he had no specific
    knowledge of drug dealing there because “they never
    told me that.” From Richards’s drug conversations with
    Beltran, the jury could infer Richards’s awareness of
    the Pelon brothers’ involvement in the drug trade
    through a known drug supplier’s (Beltran) use of an
    alias linked both to the ranch and to the individuals
    that sent Richards to Chicago. And if Richards knew of
    8
    We note also the possibility that Richards knew Beltran only
    by his Pelon pseudonym. Richards testified he did not know
    anyone named Juan Beltran and stated that he never spoke
    with anyone by that name. Thus, a jury could infer that, like
    his association with the Latino Pelon brothers, Richards
    knew Beltran only as Pelon.
    28                                            No. 12-2790
    the Pelon brothers’ involvement with drug trafficking,
    it would “tend to make the existence of any fact that is
    of consequence to the determination of the action”—such
    as Richards’s knowledge that the bag contained cocaine
    rather than money—“more probable[.]” Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1069-70
     (quoting Fed. R. Evid. 401); see also Gomez,
    
    2013 WL 1352540
    , at *3 (“[T]he Rule 404(b) evidence
    must respond to what is said to trigger admissibility.”).
    Richards, however, ignores this connection and argues
    Beltran was completely uninvolved in the Chicago trans-
    action. Maybe so. The conversation suggests that
    Beltran had no idea Richards had plans to travel to Chi-
    cago. But the fact remains that Beltran went by an alias
    associated with those who sent Richards to Bolingbrook.
    From that, a jury could infer that Richards knew more
    about drug trafficking by the Pelon brothers than he
    testified to. At bottom, a prior bad act’s relevance in
    proving knowledge does not require the exact same cast
    of characters nor does it require a definitive link
    between the prior bad act and the current one. Thus,
    Beltran need not be directly involved in the Bolingbrook
    transaction to make the California calls relevant to Rich-
    ards’s knowledge. In Moore, the defendant’s prior bad
    act of throwing a bag of cocaine from a car window
    proved relevant to his knowledge of another bag’s con-
    tents. 
    531 F.3d at 500
    . This was so despite no connec-
    tion between the prior incident and the conduct under
    prosecution—nothing suggested the Moore defendant
    had received both bags from the same individual or
    that one transaction related to the other. 
    Id. at 498-500
    .
    No. 12-2790                                                29
    Nevertheless, we do not suggest, as the government
    did at trial, that wholly unrelated prior bad acts may
    show knowledge. The government could not therefore
    introduce conversations depicting completely unrelated
    drug activity under the rationale that the defendant’s
    general familiarity with the drug trade proves relevant to
    his knowledge. The admissibility of these phone calls
    thus turns on Beltran’s Pelon alias: It connected Beltran
    to the Pelon brothers via the Pelon ranch even if
    Beltran himself did not direct the Bolingbrook operation.
    Without it, the California calls would prove relevant
    to knowledge only through the propensity inference—
    precisely the result forbidden by Miller. In short, Richards
    told the jury that he thought the bag contained money
    and that he had no knowledge of drug trafficking orig-
    inating at the Pelon ranch. Beltran’s alias linked him to
    the ranch so any conversations between Richards and
    Beltran suggesting knowledge of the drug trade permit
    the jury to infer that Richards had greater knowledge
    of drug trafficking at the ranch than he let on. This con-
    nection makes the California calls relevant to Richards’s
    knowledge of the bag’s contents.
    2.   The California Calls Are Similar Enough and
    Close Enough in Time to be Relevant
    Prior bad acts too dissimilar from the charged conduct
    or too remote in time can render evidence inadmissible
    under Rule 404(b). See Hicks, 
    635 F.3d at 1070
    ; United
    States v. Conner, 
    583 F.3d 1011
    , 1023 (7th Cir. 2009). Accord-
    ing to Richards, the calls are too dissimilar from the
    Bolingbrook operation because the calls discussed at
    30                                              No. 12-2790
    most a few ounces of cocaine, whereas the charges in-
    volved transportation of ten kilograms of the drug. Rich-
    ards, however, ignores the key similarity: in this case,
    Richards took his marching orders from the Pelon
    brothers and in the phone calls he discussed drugs with
    a man known as Pelon. This similarity—not the amount
    of drugs—provides the central link between the
    California calls and the charged conduct. It makes the
    calls relevant to Richards’s knowledge of drug trafficking
    at the Pelon ranch and the contents of the gym bag.
    Although nothing suggested the phone calls involved the
    exact same characters running the Pinecrest operation, see
    Conner, 
    583 F.3d at 1023
     (prior bad acts admissible when it
    involved “same characters and similar activities”); United
    States v. Wilson, 
    31 F.3d 510
    , 515 (7th Cir. 1994) (prior bad
    acts admissible when it involved the “same parties at the
    same location”); see also Baker, 
    655 F.3d at 682
     (prior
    conviction substantially similar when it involved same
    activity but different people), neither were the California
    calls totally unrelated (or, at least, so a jury could con-
    clude). Thus, the California calls are unlike the prior
    drug convictions in Hicks, which had no relationship to
    the drug deal resulting in the prosecution. 
    635 F.3d at 1070
    . As Hicks explained, nothing suggested the “prior
    convictions for cocaine possession and distribution
    make it more likely that [Hicks] was a ‘knowing partici-
    pant’ in this drug deal[.]” 
    Id.
     In contrast, the Pelon alias
    of both Beltran and Richards’s handlers provides the
    nexus between the two crimes that was absent in Hicks.
    We thus conclude that the conduct described in the
    California calls is sufficiently similar and close enough
    in time to the Bolingbrook operation.
    No. 12-2790                                               31
    3.   The Potential for Unfair Prejudice Did Not Sub-
    stantially Outweigh the Probative Value of the
    Calls
    Rule 403 balancing applies with full force when con-
    sidering the admission of prior bad acts evidence. Miller,
    
    673 F.3d at 696
    . As an initial matter, nearly all govern-
    ment evidence prejudices the defendant—if it did not, the
    government would not introduce it. The inquiry turns on
    whether the evidence prejudices the defendant in some
    unfair way that substantially outweighs the value of the
    evidence in determining the truth. See United States v.
    Perkins, 
    548 F.3d 510
    , 515 (7th Cir. 2008). “Evidence is
    unfairly prejudicial only to the extent that it will cause
    the jury to decide the case on improper grounds.” United
    States v. Chavis, 
    429 F.3d 662
    , 668 (7th Cir. 2005). In cases
    involving Rule 404(b) evidence, that improper ground
    is the propensity inference.
    We have previously recognized, though, that properly
    administered limiting jury instructions cure the danger of
    unfair prejudice unless “the jury could not follow the
    court’s limiting instruction.” Perkins, 
    548 F.3d at 515
    (quoting United States v. James, 
    487 F.3d 518
    , 525 (7th Cir.
    2007)); see, e.g., Baker, 
    655 F.3d at 682
    ; United States v.
    Denberg, 
    212 F.3d 987
    , 994 (7th Cir. 2000). The district
    court here instructed the jury on several occasions to
    consider the calls only in relation to Richards’s knowl-
    edge of the bag’s contents. Richards ultimately makes no
    showing that the district court’s instructions did not
    resonate with the jury or were misunderstood. Moreover,
    the district court engaged in a careful voir dire of Agent
    32                                             No. 12-2790
    Riley and reviewed transcripts of the calls before ruling
    on their admissibility. See United States v. Beasley, 
    809 F.2d 1273
    , 1279 (7th Cir. 1987) (criticizing “perfunctory”
    pretrial hearing on Rule 404(b) evidence). To further
    mitigate the potential for prejudice, the calls themselves
    do not directly reference drug activity and the jury, if
    it chose, could have disbelieved the testimony of Agent
    Riley. Defense counsel also had ample opportunity to—
    and actually did—vigorously cross-examine Agent Riley.
    Admittedly, the California calls are not as probative of
    Richards’s knowledge as other evidence could have
    been—such as evidence that Richards discussed drugs with
    the Pelon who sent him to Chicago or evidence more
    closely linking Beltran with those brothers. But the calls
    were not wholly irrelevant—as we have explained, their
    content supported an inference that, contrary to his
    testimony, Richards knew of drug activity at the Pelon
    ranch. And though not as probative of Richards’s knowl-
    edge as other evidence would have been, neither were
    the calls as prejudicial as other types of Rule 404(b) evi-
    dence, such as an actual conviction for drug trafficking,
    which would definitively establish Richards’s involve-
    ment in the drug trade (and would be particularly tough
    to attack on cross-examination). Evidence of such con-
    victions involves a far greater risk that the jury will
    “decide the case on improper grounds,” such as the
    propensity inference, than on the evidence related to
    the conduct charged. Yet we have previously declined
    to find unfair prejudice in evidence as prejudicial as a
    prior conviction when coupled with a limiting instruc-
    tion. E.g., Moore, 
    531 F.3d at 500
    .
    No. 12-2790                                              33
    Ultimately, the district court took the proper prophylac-
    tic steps to insure the jury drew no improper inference
    from the California calls. Mountains of authority
    confirm that, when introduced for a valid non-propensity
    purpose, such limiting instructions and voir dire exam-
    inations cure any unfair prejudice that results from in-
    troduction of prior bad acts evidence. Baker, 
    655 F.3d at 682
    ; Perkins, 
    548 F.3d at 515
     (quoting James, 
    487 F.3d at 525
    ); Denberg, 
    212 F.3d at 994
    . Because no such unfair
    prejudice arose from admission of the California calls,
    and because those calls prove relevant to Richards’s
    knowledge of the bag’s contents after he disavowed
    knowing that drug trafficking originated at the Pelon
    ranch, we affirm the district court’s admission of the
    California calls under Rule 404(b).
    C. Although Admissible, the Government Improperly
    Used the California Calls to Argue Propensity
    During Closing
    Admission of Rule 404(b) evidence, however, does not
    grant the government free rein to use that evidence how-
    ever it wishes. Having obtained admission of the evi-
    dence for a specific, non-propensity purpose, the gov-
    ernment cannot then deploy the Rule 404(b) evidence in
    support of some other argument or inference. Rather, it
    must limit its use of the evidence to the purpose
    proffered when admitting the evidence. See Gomez, 
    2013 WL 1352540
    , at *3 (“[T]he Rule 404(b) evidence must
    respond to what is said to trigger admissibility.”). It
    cannot ever rely upon that evidence to argue propen-
    34                                              No. 12-2790
    sity. The government did so in this case so we vacate
    the conviction and remand for retrial.
    Improper prosecutorial comments during closing
    arguments are reviewed under a prosecutorial mis-
    conduct framework. See, e.g., United States v. Bell, 
    624 F.3d 803
    , 811 (7th Cir. 2010). This analysis requires, first
    a determination that prosecutors acted improperly, and
    second a conclusion that the improper conduct prejudiced
    the defendant. E.g., United States v. Simpson, 
    479 F.3d 492
    , 503 (7th Cir. 2007), abrogated on other grounds by
    United States v. Boone, 
    628 F.3d 927
    , 933 (7th Cir. 2010).
    Because Richards objected to the government’s closing,
    we review the district court’s decision to permit the gov-
    ernment’s argument for abuse of discretion. Id.
    1.   The Government’s Closing Argument Invited
    the Jury to Draw the Prohibited Propensity Infer-
    ence from the California Calls
    “Just as introducing evidence to show propensity is
    improper, so too is arguing to a jury that it should
    convict a defendant based on the defendant’s propensity
    to commit a crime.” Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 503
    ; accord
    United States v. Klebig, 
    600 F.3d 700
    , 719 (7th Cir. 2010).
    This prohibition remains even when the court has ad-
    mitted the Rule 404(b) evidence for some permissible
    non-propensity purpose—the government cannot
    later argue that the evidence shows the defendant’s
    propensity to engage in criminal behavior. Yet that is
    precisely the inference the government invited in this
    case. Indeed, during closing arguments, prosecutors
    No. 12-2790                                                   35
    routinely called the defendant a “drug dealer” and a
    “drug trafficker.” As support for these labels, the gov-
    ernment relied exclusively on the California calls:
    “You heard the calls. . . . When he doesn’t think anyone
    is listening, he is a cocaine dealer.” 9 Jones, in fact, found
    a propensity inference in nearly the same con-
    duct—repeated prosecutorial characterizations of the
    defendant as a drug dealer: “The Assistant U.S.
    Attorney then repeatedly told the jury that Jones’s
    prior convictions showed that he was a drug dealer,
    and that they should therefore, find that he intended to
    deal drugs in this case. This looks, walks, and sounds
    like the argument ‘once a drug dealer, always a drug
    dealer.’ ” Jones, 
    389 F.3d at 757
    ; see also Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 503-04
     (impermissible propensity argument in defen-
    dant’s statement that he had participated in so many
    drug deals he could not remember the specific deal
    with which he was charged). No material differences
    separate Jones from this case.
    The government’s oft-repeated refrain naming the
    defendant a “drug dealer” and “drug trafficker” is not
    even the most glaring example of its propensity argu-
    ment. On rebuttal, the prosecutor told the jury, “Clearly
    the defendant’s drug dealing is not limited to California.
    9
    The government relied on the California calls to prove Rich-
    ards’s status as a drug dealer at other times, too. “[T]he defen-
    dant knew this cocaine was terrible quality based on the
    packaging and just by looking at it,” the prosecutor told the
    jury. “How does he know that?” she continued. “Because he
    is a drug trafficker.”
    36                                            No. 12-2790
    It happens here too.” The prosecutor has all but linked
    these two sentences with “because.” No matter that he
    did not—the meaning is the same: Richards dealt drugs
    in California so he must have done so here, too. And
    later on, the prosecutor told the jury “These layers of
    concealment are used to give drug dealers plausible
    deniability. But that doesn’t work for the defendant
    because we already know he is a cocaine dealer.” How,
    precisely, does the government already know Richards is
    a cocaine dealer? From the California calls, of course.
    Again, the inference is the same. Richards dealt in Cali-
    fornia so he must have dealt in Bolingbrook.
    The government instead insists that the district court
    properly admitted the evidence and, as a result, it was
    free to “weave the statement into its theory of the case.”
    Bell, 
    624 F.3d at 812
    ; see also United States v. Bowman,
    
    353 F.3d 546
    , 551 (7th Cir. 2003). Fair enough, but
    Rule 404(b) prohibits the government’s theory of the
    case from resting on the propensity inference. Here, the
    government did precisely that, placing the propensity
    inference at the center of its closing argument.
    Prosecutors never explained to the jury specifically
    how Richards’s conversations with a man known as
    Pelon showed his knowledge of drug dealing at the
    Pelon ranch. For example, the government could have
    explained that Richards’s drug conversations with a
    man known as Pelon suggested Richards knew of drug
    trafficking originating from the Pelon ranch, thereby
    showing Richards knew the bags contained drugs. It
    did not. Instead, the government simply used the Cali-
    fornia calls to label Richards a cocaine trafficker and
    No. 12-2790                                            37
    rested its case there. That is the propensity inference
    that Miller, Jones, and Simpson prohibit. See Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 699
     (“[T]he government must affirmatively
    show why a particular prior conviction tends to show
    the more forward-looking fact of purpose, design, or
    volition to commit the new crime.” (quoting Jones, 
    389 F.3d at 757-58
    )). Neither Bowman nor Bell suggests other-
    wise. Both cases found the challenged statements
    devoid of “propensity aspects” or submitted for a
    non-propensity purpose, such as challenging the defen-
    dant’s credibility after he had testified. Bell, 
    624 F.3d at 811-12
    ; Bowman, 
    353 F.3d at 551
     (noting prosecutor
    never “asked the jury to draw the inference that because
    Bowman had admitted problems abiding by the law,
    he must be guilty”).
    Reduced to its core, the government’s closing argument
    revolved around the propensity inference with the Cali-
    fornia calls as its centerpiece. The government paid
    scant attention to the knowledge rationale that justified
    admitting the tapes and instead deployed the tapes
    as evidence of Richards’s propensity for drug trafficking.
    That argument was improper, and we conclude that
    the district court abused its discretion in concluding
    otherwise.
    2.   The Government’s Propensity Arguments at
    Closing Prejudiced Richards and Entitle Him
    to a New Trial
    Prejudice does not require an ironclad guarantee
    that, absent the prosecutorial misconduct, the outcome
    38                                               No. 12-2790
    of trial would have differed. See Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 505
     (“[I]t is not enough to say that the outcome
    probably would have been the same without the pros-
    ecutor’s improper propensity inference and the evi-
    dence of [the defendant’s] past unrelated drug deals.”).
    “Doubts—a lack of ‘fair assurance’—call for a new
    trial.” Miller, 
    673 F.3d at 701
    .1 0 Thus, Richards need not
    show that, on remand, a jury would not convict him a
    second time.
    When gauging prejudice, we “consider the remarks
    in light of the entire record to determine if the defendant
    was deprived of a fair trial.” Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 504
    (quoting United States v. Wesley, 
    422 F.3d 509
    , 515
    (7th Cir. 2005)). Six factors influence this determina-
    tion: (1) whether the prosecutor misstated evidence;
    (2) whether the statements implicate a specific right of
    the defendant; (3) whether the defense invited the pros-
    ecutor’s remarks; (4) the trial court’s instructions; (5) the
    weight of the evidence against the defendant; and (6) the
    defendant’s opportunity to rebut. 
    Id.
    At the outset, several factors clearly favor the absence
    of prejudice. The statements did not implicate a
    10
    We note that the prejudice bar stands higher when the
    defendant does not object to prosecutorial misconduct.
    Bowman, 
    353 F.3d at 550
    . In that situation, prejudice requires
    that the “outcome of the proceedings would have been dif-
    ferent absent” the misconduct. 
    Id.
     Richards preserved his
    objections with the district court, though, so he need not
    satisfy this high bar.
    No. 12-2790                                                39
    specific right, and the district court did give a limiting
    instruction.11 Even that limiting instruction did little to
    mitigate the prejudice arising from the government’s
    propensity arguments. Limiting instructions mitigate
    prejudice associated with Rule 404(b) evidence when the
    government offers the evidence for some permissible
    purpose and actually argues that permissible purpose
    at closing. E.g., Moore, 
    531 F.3d at 500
    . When the gov-
    ernment explicitly argues propensity, however, the cura-
    tive value of a limiting instruction diminishes dramatically.
    Other factors, however, weigh in favor of prejudice.
    Although the prosecution did not misstate the
    evidence, it “invited the jury to make an improper in-
    ference from the evidence, an action with a similar ef-
    fect.” Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 504
    . Also, Richards had
    no opportunity to address the statements because the
    government made most inflammatory statements
    during its rebuttal argument. See United States v.
    McMath, 
    559 F.3d 657
    , 668 (7th Cir. 2009). And neither
    did Richards invite the prosecutor’s statements with
    anything presented in his defense. True, Richards put
    knowledge at issue. That defense, however, simply
    allows the government to introduce the calls and
    11
    The instruction read, in pertinent part: “Let me make plain
    once again to the jurors that you are to consider for purposes
    of this trial whether the Government has proved beyond
    a reasonable doubt the event that is charged in the indictment
    that occurred on November 21st. You are not to consider
    for purposes of finding him guilty conduct at an earlier point
    of the type that [the prosecutor] is referring to.”
    40                                          No. 12-2790
    explain to the jury how they show knowledge. It does
    not invite the government to argue propensity.
    The weight of the evidence factor also favors preju-
    dice. Explaining away ten kilograms of cocaine is
    difficult and certainly supports an inference that
    Richards knew of its presence. But the govern-
    ment offered no direct evidence of that fact. Neither
    Officer Mok nor the other officers tailing Richards
    testified to seeing him open the bag, and the garage
    door to the Pinecrest house had closed after Richards
    backed into it. But Richards mounted a vigorous defense
    and told the jury he thought the bag contained money.
    A Michigan state trooper even bolstered Richards’s
    defense by testifying that on a previous occasion police
    had found large amounts of money in a bag in the trunk
    of Richards’s car. In short, Richards’s fate hung on his
    credibility with the jury. The government’s improper
    propensity argument shattered this credibility in unsal-
    vageable ways. See Simpson, 
    479 F.3d at 504
     (“In a case
    where the circumstantial evidence against Simpson
    was close, the prosecution’s explicit instruction to the
    jury to draw the inference that Simpson had conducted
    ‘so many’ crack cocaine deals that he could not
    remember the deal for which he stood trial was a power-
    ful argument.”); see also Bell, 
    624 F.3d at 813
     (finding
    no prejudice in case that was not a “swearing contest”).
    Only one factor counsels strongly toward finding
    no prejudice. The others call into question the fairness
    of Richards’s trial and raise doubts that the jury
    would have convicted him absent the government’s
    No. 12-2790                                          41
    improper propensity argument at closing. As a result,
    we conclude Richards deserves a new trial.
    IV. Conclusion
    The police possessed sufficient probable cause to
    justify stopping and searching the gray Lexus so we
    A FFIRM the district court’s denial of Richards’s motion
    to suppress. Likewise, we agree with the district court
    that Richards placed his knowledge squarely in issue
    when he took the stand in his own defense. We also
    find the California calls relevant to Richards’s knowl-
    edge of drug dealing at the Pelon ranch and, therefore,
    relevant to Richards’s knowledge of the bag’s contents.
    We thus A FFIRM the district court’s admission of the
    California calls under Rule 404(b). We cannot, however,
    characterize the government’s statements in closing
    arguments as anything other than an invitation to the
    jury to infer Richards’s guilt in this case from his
    previous conversations involving drug dealing. That the
    government may not do. This improper suggestion
    of propensity prejudiced Richards so we V ACATE Rich-
    ards’s conviction and R EMAND for a new trial.
    42                                              No. 12-2790
    W OOD , Circuit Judge, concurring in the judgment.
    Theodore Richards stands convicted of possession of
    cocaine with intent to distribute, in violation of 
    21 U.S.C. § 841
    (a)(1). On appeal, he has raised three principal
    issues: (1) whether the district court properly denied
    Richards’s motion to suppress on the ground that there
    was probable cause to stop his car and arrest him;
    (2) whether the district court abused its discretion when
    it admitted evidence of Richards’s telephone calls with
    a person in California, over an objection under Federal
    Rule of Evidence 404(b); and (3) whether the govern-
    ment improperly used that evidence during its closing
    argument. Like my colleagues, I find the first question
    close, but in the end I conclude that the district court’s
    decision not to suppress the evidence that resulted
    from the stop of Richards’s car was supportable,
    taking all the circumstances into account. And like my
    colleagues, I find that the prosecutor’s closing argument
    violated the limits that the court had placed on the evi-
    dence of the California calls, by inviting the jurors to
    convict Richards solely on propensity grounds. More-
    over, this violation was prejudicial to Richards. Thus,
    I join my colleagues in their judgment that Richards
    has demonstrated that he must have a new trial. Where
    I part company with them is on the second issue
    Richards has raised: the admissibility of the California
    calls under Rule 404(b). I write to explain my position
    because this issue may arise in a retrial.
    As the majority notes, ante at 25 n.7, this is an odd case:
    normally it does not make any difference whether the
    defendant is holding actual drugs or the proceeds from
    No. 12-2790                                            43
    the sale of drugs. But here, it does, because Richards was
    charged only with possession of cocaine with intent to
    distribute it. There was no conspiracy count, nor was
    there a direct distribution count that would have
    permitted a conviction based on the money. In my
    opinion, this was a fatal misstep on the prosecution’s
    part in this case. It allowed Richards to argue, without
    fear of incriminating himself (at least with respect to
    the charges in the present case), that he thought that the
    backpack was filled with money, not drugs; this was
    in keeping with the role that he had played in the
    Michigan transaction. Nothing in the California calls
    gave the slightest reason to think that Richards had
    drugs rather than money, or money rather than drugs.
    I thus find the California calls useless when it comes to
    the particular question of knowledge that we have in
    this case: did Richards know that the bag contained drugs?
    My colleagues place great weight on the fact that Rich-
    ards’s conversations in California were with a person
    who went by the name “Pelon,” and that he was sent to
    the Pinecrest residence by men from “the Ranch,” where
    lots of people also went by that name. But “pelon” is just
    a Spanish word that means “Bald Guy,” or “Baldy.”
    I therefore cannot read anything into the fact that a
    number of people adopted the “pelon” moniker, any
    more than I would if people called themselves “Shorty”
    or “Red-head” or “Curly.” The fact that several people
    use the same nickname, with nothing more, does not
    establish that those people work together in the same
    enterprise or are in any way connected to each other.
    And it certainly tells us nothing about anyone’s role
    44                                           No. 12-2790
    within the enterprise (supplier; distributor; courier;
    lookout; money-handler) for any given transaction.
    Other than the common nickname, there is no evidence
    that the man with whom Richards discussed drug deals
    in the wiretapped calls, Beltran (a.k.a. Pelon), had any
    connection to the men from “the Ranch” who sent
    Richards to the Pinecrest house. Ante at 26-28. Traveling
    to Chicago was never mentioned during the phone calls
    between Richards and Beltran. Id. at 7. The majority
    recognizes that evidence of “completely unrelated drug
    activity” would not be admissible to show that Richards
    likely knew that drugs as opposed to currency were
    inside the bag. Id. at 29. And it essentially admits
    that Richards’s phone calls with Beltran would be com-
    pletely unrelated aside from the fact that “Beltran went
    by a common alias associated with those who sent Rich-
    ards to Bolingbrook.” Id.
    Richards contested the fact—essential to the govern-
    ment’s theory—that he knew that the backpack in the
    trunk of his car contained drugs. The California calls
    shed no light on that issue; they show only that Richards
    had discussed drugs with a man who goes by the same
    nickname as the people who sent him on the trip to
    the Pinecrest residence. These facts do not have a
    tendency to make it more or less probable that Richards
    knew that the particular bag had drugs, not money,
    and thus they fail the test of relevance imposed by
    Federal Rule of Evidence 401. I would find that this case
    is governed by United States v. Miller, 
    673 F.3d 688
     (7th
    Cir. 2012): the contested evidence proved nothing but
    Richards’s propensity to be involved in the drug
    No. 12-2790                                            45
    trade. It shed no light on the crucial question whether
    the backpack contained drugs or money.
    For these reasons, I respectfully concur in the judgment.
    6-14-13