Christopher Gish v. Randall Hepp ( 2020 )


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  •                                In the
    United States Court of Appeals
    For the Seventh Circuit
    ____________________
    No. 19-1476
    CHRISTOPHER R. GISH,
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    v.
    RANDALL HEPP, Warden,
    Respondent-Appellee.
    ____________________
    Appeal from the United States District Court for the
    Western District of Wisconsin.
    No. 3:15-cv-730 — James D. Peterson, Chief Judge.
    ____________________
    ARGUED NOVEMBER 7, 2019 — DECIDED APRIL 3, 2020
    ____________________
    Before HAMILTON, SCUDDER, and ST. EVE, Circuit Judges.
    SCUDDER, Circuit Judge. Christopher Gish pleaded guilty to
    first-degree reckless homicide in Wisconsin state court for
    killing his longtime girlfriend and the mother of his children.
    He appealed, claiming that his trial counsel provided ineffec-
    tive assistance by failing to investigate an involuntary intoxi-
    cation defense. Police found Gish disoriented and delirious
    on the night of the killing, and he claimed that rare side effects
    from taking prescription Xanax affected his ability to
    2                                                 No. 19-1476
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct. After the Wiscon-
    sin Court of Appeals rejected the claim and affirmed his con-
    viction, Gish turned to federal court and wound his way
    through a thicket of habeas proceedings. The district court
    held an evidentiary hearing but denied relief because Gish
    failed to show that his counsel’s deficient performance re-
    sulted in prejudice: even if counsel had investigated involun-
    tary intoxication, that defense was so unlikely to succeed that
    Gish still would have pleaded guilty. We affirm.
    I
    A
    Early in the morning on July 14, 2012, Wisconsin police
    found Christopher Gish soaking wet, unable to answer ques-
    tions, and wandering in an unsteady manner on railroad
    tracks near the Milwaukee airport. The officers took Gish to
    the hospital, where he told paramedics that he had blacked
    out. He then proceeded to make a series of nonsensical state-
    ments suggesting that he did not understand his wherea-
    bouts. At one point, for instance, Gish stated that “all I saw
    was red” and “you are in my bedroom, why are you in my
    room?” Upon ascertaining Gish’s home address, the police
    entered and found his longtime girlfriend and the mother of
    his children, Margaret Litwicki, stabbed to death in a bed-
    room.
    Once Gish’s condition stabilized, he agreed to an inter-
    view with the police. A videotape showed that Gish gained
    lucidity over the course of the questioning. Initially Gish de-
    nied any memory of the previous night, but later in the inter-
    view he confessed to stabbing Litwicki multiple times in his
    bedroom. He said he attacked Litwicki because he suspected
    No. 19-1476                                                  3
    that she was having an affair and believed she might take his
    kids from him.
    Wisconsin authorities charged Gish with first-degree in-
    tentional homicide, which carries a mandatory sentence of life
    imprisonment. See WIS. STAT. §§ 939.50(3)(a), 940.01(1)(a). Na-
    than Opland-Dobs served as Gish’s court-appointed counsel.
    Gish told Opland-Dobs that he had taken prescription Lamic-
    tal and Xanax before the homicide and thought those medica-
    tions may have induced his erratic behavior in a way that
    would afford some legal defense to the charge.
    Opland-Dobs researched the effects of Lamictal, but not
    Xanax—a choice he later said he could not explain. He ulti-
    mately determined that any Lamictal-based defense would be
    futile and so advised Gish. When prosecutors later offered to
    accept a plea to first-degree reckless homicide, which carries
    a maximum sentence of 60 years, see WIS. STAT.
    §§ 939.50(3)(b), 940.02(1), Opland-Dobs advised Gish to take
    it. Gish agreed, pleaded guilty, and received a sentence of 40
    years’ imprisonment and 20 years’ extended supervision.
    B
    With the assistance of new counsel, Gish filed a direct ap-
    peal in Wisconsin state court. Counsel then filed what Wis-
    consin law calls a “no-merit report”—the functional equiva-
    lent of an Anders brief in federal criminal practice—represent-
    ing that any appeal would be meritless and requesting per-
    mission to withdraw as Gish’s appointed lawyer. See WIS.
    STAT. § 809.32 (setting out Wisconsin’s procedure for filing no-
    merit reports); accord Anders v. California, 
    386 U.S. 738
    , 744
    (1967) (advising that “if counsel finds his case to be wholly
    4                                                  No. 19-1476
    frivolous, after a conscientious examination of it, he should so
    advise the court and request permission to withdraw”).
    Gish responded to the no-merit report by insisting that he
    had a non-frivolous basis for appeal. He claimed that his trial
    counsel, Opland-Dobs, provided ineffective assistance by fail-
    ing to pursue the affirmative defense of involuntary intoxica-
    tion, a complete defense to homicide under Wisconsin law.
    Gish emphasized that he told Opland-Dobs all about the
    Xanax he had taken before the homicide and suggested that
    the medication may have affected his ability to discern right
    from wrong. See WIS. STAT. § 939.42(1). He supported this con-
    tention with police reports describing his delirium shortly af-
    ter the homicide, medical records showing he had been pre-
    scribed Xanax, and information about Xanax’s side effects
    that he had found online and in textbooks. Gish then went a
    step further: he insisted that, had he known an involuntary
    intoxication was viable, he would have rejected the govern-
    ment’s plea and instead gone to trial.
    Appellate counsel responded by emphasizing that Gish
    never once suggested to his trial counsel, Opland-Dobs, that
    either the Xanax or Lamictal so affected his mental state as to
    prevent him from understanding the wrongfulness of his con-
    duct. So, appellate counsel put it, “there wasn’t anything to
    investigate.”
    The Wisconsin Court of Appeals evaluated Gish’s ineffec-
    tive assistance claim under the familiar standards of Strickland
    v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    (1984). Gish had to show that Op-
    land-Dobs’s performance “fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness,”
    id. at 688,
    and resulted in prejudice, meaning
    that there was “a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    No. 19-1476                                                   5
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would
    have been different,”
    id. at 694.
        The Wisconsin court denied relief, concluding that any
    contention of ineffective assistance was so lacking—having no
    “arguable merit”—that Gish could not even clear Strickland’s
    first hurdle of showing that Opland-Dobs’s performance was
    deficient. Indeed, the court wholesale adopted Gish’s appel-
    late counsel’s version of events, disregarding Gish’s allega-
    tions in their entirety and even refusing to consider the police
    reports and other documents Gish submitted in support of his
    ineffective assistance claim. In effect, then, the Wisconsin
    court affirmed Gish’s conviction for the same reason sug-
    gested by his appellate counsel—“there wasn’t anything to in-
    vestigate.”
    The Wisconsin Supreme Court denied review, and Gish
    then turned his attention to securing relief in federal court.
    II
    A
    Invoking 28 U.S.C. § 2254, Gish petitioned the district
    court for federal habeas relief, renewing his claim that Op-
    land-Dobs provided ineffective assistance of counsel by fail-
    ing to investigate a Xanax-based involuntary intoxication de-
    fense. To secure relief, Gish had to establish that the Wiscon-
    sin Court of Appeals’s decision “was contrary to, or involved
    an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal
    law,” or “was based on an unreasonable determination of the
    facts in light of the evidence presented in the State court pro-
    ceeding.” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1)–(2).
    Although ultimately denying relief, the district court did
    so only after holding an evidentiary hearing, taking
    6                                                  No. 19-1476
    testimony, and receiving other evidence on the merits of
    Gish’s contention that Opland-Dobs should have pursued an
    involuntary intoxication defense. The district court deter-
    mined the evidentiary hearing was warranted, and indeed
    necessary, because Gish, despite offering his prescription rec-
    ords, the police reports, and information about the side effects
    of Xanax, never had a reasonable opportunity to develop the
    factual basis for his claim on direct appeal in the state court.
    Even more, the district court found that Gish’s allegations, if
    true, supported his claim that Opland-Dobs performed defi-
    ciently. The state court’s back-of-the-hand rejection of Gish’s
    ineffective assistance claim, the district court concluded, re-
    flected an unreasonable application of Strickland, for Gish had
    brought forth enough evidence on direct appeal to reasonably
    question the adequacy of Opland-Dobs’s representation in
    the trial court.
    B
    Several witnesses testified at the evidentiary hearing. Gish
    testified on his own behalf and called pharmacology consult-
    ant James T. O’Donnell and his trial counsel Nathan Opland-
    Dobs. For its part, the state called Kayla Neuman, a chemist
    in the toxicology section of the Wisconsin State Laboratory of
    Hygiene, and Detective Brent Hart, who had interviewed
    Gish the morning he was apprehended.
    The district court heard conflicting evidence about
    whether Gish took Xanax on the day he killed Litwicki. On
    the one hand, Gish testified that he told Opland-Dobs he had
    taken both Xanax and Lamictal on the day of the homicide.
    But Gish plainly stated in the interview with Detective Hart
    the morning of the homicide that he had last taken Xanax “[a]
    couple days” before, which, given the half-life of Xanax,
    No. 19-1476                                                  7
    would suggest that its effects had worn off by the time of the
    killing. In much the same vein, a nurse who treated Gish at
    the hospital wrote in his patient visit records that Gish re-
    ported having sold his Xanax and Lamictal pills—suggesting
    that perhaps he had never taken them at all in the days before
    the homicide. And the district judge heard testimony that the
    police found no Xanax in a search of Gish’s home.
    The district court also heard expert testimony about the
    possible effects of Xanax. Both parties’ experts agreed that
    Xanax can trigger hallucinations, agitation, rage, and hostile
    behavior. The state’s expert, Neuman, added that mixing
    Xanax with Lamictal can amplify these effects. Gish’s expert,
    O’Donnell, testified that the police finding Gish in a tempo-
    rary delusional state was more consistent with Xanax intoxi-
    cation than with the effects of mental illness. O’Donnell added
    that Gish could not appreciate the criminality of his conduct,
    but the district court found that conclusion speculative,
    backed by no medical evidence, and therefore not credible.
    Finally, the district court heard from Gish and Opland-
    Dobs regarding their plea discussions. For the most part, their
    accounts aligned: Gish testified that he had asked Opland-
    Dobs to consider defenses based on Xanax and Lamictal. Op-
    land-Dobs did not dispute that aspect of Gish’s testimony, ad-
    mitted that he failed to investigate Xanax, and expressed re-
    gret for that failure. He conceded that, given the evidence he
    had available to him in representing Gish, investigating
    Xanax would have been “appropriate” and he “didn’t give it
    enough consideration.” Opland-Dobs offered no justification
    for this failure, saying, “[w]hy I didn’t follow up on the
    Xanax, I can’t explain,” because ignoring that path “doesn’t
    seem like what I should have done.”
    8                                                    No. 19-1476
    On the question of prejudice, Gish testified that he only
    pleaded guilty on the assumption that he would have had a
    “zero percent chance” of being acquitted at trial. He explained
    that there was “no sense” in “putting the family through” a
    trial “that was just a wish-wash,” where he believed he had
    no chance of prevailing. But Gish was equally clear that his
    decision may have been different had Opland-Dobs pursued
    the involuntary intoxication defense and told him it had some
    chance of prevailing. Even if that defense were a weak one,
    giving him as low as a “one-percent chance” of acquittal, Gish
    insisted he would have “always take[n] the chance” and
    rolled the dice at trial.
    C
    Aided by the evidentiary hearing, the district court pro-
    ceeded to the merits of Gish’s ineffective assistance claim. The
    court made quick work of Strickland’s deficient performance
    prong by assuming that Opland-Dobs’s complete and admit-
    ted failure to evaluate a Xanax-based intoxication defense was
    unreasonable. Moving to Strickland’s prejudice prong, the
    court concluded that Gish fell short of showing he would
    have forgone the plea deal and gone to trial had Opland-Dobs
    pursued the defense. While Gish so testified, the district court
    was not willing to credit that testimony over other evidence
    pointing in the opposite direction.
    The district court placed particular emphasis on Gish’s
    statements to Detective Hart not only that he had last taken
    Xanax “[a] couple days” before the homicide, but also that he
    did not regret killing Litwicki in light of her alleged infidelity.
    The district judge likewise highlighted Gish’s statement to the
    nurse that he had sold his prescriptions—a fact corroborated
    by the police’s failure to find any trace of Xanax in Gish’s
    No. 19-1476                                                     9
    home. Considering this evidence in its totality, the district
    court determined that Gish had no reasonable prospect at trial
    of demonstrating the essential element of the intoxication de-
    fense—that he failed to appreciate right from wrong at the
    time of the homicide. The district court also found that the
    state’s plea offer was reasonably attractive, as it guaranteed
    Gish a maximum of 60 years rather than life imprisonment.
    Gish now appeals.
    III
    A
    We begin with the decision of the Wisconsin Court of Ap-
    peals, the last state court to consider (at least a portion of)
    Gish’s ineffective assistance claim on the merits in a reasoned
    opinion. See Wilson v. Sellers, 
    138 S. Ct. 1188
    , 1192 (2018). Gish
    needs to show, as the district court recognized, that the Wis-
    consin court’s decision “was contrary to, or involved an un-
    reasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,” or
    “was based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in
    light of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.”
    28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1)–(2). In answering that question, we
    must “train [our] attention on the particular reasons—both le-
    gal and factual—why state courts rejected [Gish’s] federal
    claims.” 
    Wilson, 138 S. Ct. at 1191
    –92. Where, as here, the state
    court issued an explanatory opinion, we “review[] the specific
    reasons given by the state court and defer[] to those reasons if
    they are reasonable.”
    Id. at 1192.
        The Wisconsin Court of Appeals rejected Gish’s ineffective
    assistance claim on the ground that “there wasn’t anything
    [for his trial counsel, Nathan Opland-Dobs] to investigate.”
    With nothing to investigate, the reasoning ran, Opland-Dobs
    10                                                 No. 19-1476
    could not have rendered ineffective assistance. It made no dif-
    ference, the Wisconsin court added, that Gish sought on ap-
    peal to support his claim with police reports and other evi-
    dence showing that his prescription Xanax may have ex-
    plained his delusional state at the time of the homicide. None
    of that evidence was before the trial court and that is all that
    mattered on the Wisconsin court’s reasoning.
    The district court was right to call the Wisconsin court’s
    decision an unreasonable application of Strickland’s deficient
    performance prong. Return to the state court’s insistence that
    Gish’s claim lacked merit because (and only because) he never
    put his evidence before the trial court. That reasoning fails to
    meet the claim Gish raised on direct appeal—ineffective assis-
    tance of his trial counsel, Nathan Opland-Dobs. As the Wis-
    consin court would have it, Gish—while being advised by
    Opland-Dobs—somehow and some way (and apparently on
    his own) had to put before the trial court evidence to support
    a claim that Opland-Dobs had violated the Sixth Amendment
    by not pursuing an involuntary intoxication defense. Yet the
    trial record lacked evidence of Gish’s ineffective assistance
    claim precisely because, by the very terms of the claim, Op-
    land-Dobs’s deficient performance occurred during the trial
    court proceedings. Gish, in short, necessarily needed to sup-
    port his claim with evidence outside the trial record, for there
    was no other way he could have demonstrated his ineffective
    assistance claim or rebutted his appellate counsel’s view (as
    reflected in the no-merit report) that the claim was frivolous.
    This is not the first time we have found fault with the exact
    reasoning the Wisconsin Court of Appeals employed in reject-
    ing Gish’s ineffective assistance claim. In Davis v. Lambert, we
    explained that “it would defy logic to deny [a state habeas
    No. 19-1476                                                     11
    petitioner] an evidentiary hearing on whether his counsel’s
    failure to investigate the witnesses violated Strickland on the
    ground that he did not fully present those witnesses’ testi-
    mony to the state courts.” 
    388 F.3d 1052
    , 1061 (7th Cir. 2004).
    Similarly, in Mosley v. Atchison, we concluded that a state
    court unreasonably applied Strickland’s performance prong
    by disregarding a defendant’s showing on appeal that his trial
    counsel failed to pursue two potential alibi witnesses and in-
    stead assuming that counsel’s choice reflected a strategic de-
    termination. 
    689 F.3d 838
    , 848 (7th Cir. 2012).
    We chart the same course here and have little difficulty
    concluding that the Wisconsin Court of Appeals’s denial of
    Gish’s ineffective assistance claim rooted itself in an “unrea-
    sonable application” of Strickland’s deficient performance
    prong as well as an “unreasonable determination of the facts
    in light of the evidence [Gish] presented in the State court pro-
    ceeding.” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1)–(2). Gish brought forth spe-
    cific evidence that, if accepted as true, would have demon-
    strated that Opland-Dobs rendered deficient performance in
    failing to pursue a potential involuntary intoxication defense.
    See Jones v. Wallace, 
    525 F.3d 500
    , 503 (7th Cir. 2008) (noting
    that where a petitioner in state custody is “not at fault for fail-
    ing to develop the factual record” of his ineffective assistance
    claim, we “look only to whether, if proven, his proposed facts
    would entitle him to relief”). The Wisconsin Court of Ap-
    peals’s contrary conclusion reflected an unreasonable appli-
    cation of Strickland. In these circumstances, the same error sat-
    isfies § 2254(d)(2), for the Wisconsin court’s categorical disre-
    gard of Gish’s evidence resulted in a rejection of his ineffec-
    tive assistance claim on an unreasonable view of the facts. At
    the very least, all of this was enough, as the district court rec-
    ognized, to warrant an evidentiary hearing—to afford Gish an
    12                                                  No. 19-1476
    opportunity to develop the merits of his claim, an opportunity
    he never received in state court. Like the district court, then,
    we proceed to the merits of Gish’s ineffective assistance claim.
    B
    In considering Gish’s claim, we need say very little on
    Strickland’s first prong. Opland-Dobs testified in the district
    court and admitted in no uncertain terms that he never as-
    sessed a Xanax-based involuntary intoxication defense. We
    can assume this admitted failure is enough for Gish to show
    deficient performance. See Pole v. Randolph, 
    570 F.3d 922
    , 943
    (7th Cir. 2009) (opting to “assume that counsel’s performance
    was deficient and move on to the second part of the analysis”
    because the petitioner could not show prejudice).
    This brings us to the primary issue on appeal: whether Op-
    land-Dobs’s failure to pursue an involuntary intoxication de-
    fense prejudiced Gish. Our review proceeds de novo (and not
    under the deferential standard of § 2254(d)) because this di-
    mension of Gish’s claim is one the Wisconsin Court of Ap-
    peals never reached and considered. That court stopped at
    Strickland’s first prong. In these circumstances, the Supreme
    Court has instructed, we treat the two prongs of Strickland as
    divisible and review the prejudice prong by taking our own
    fresh look at the evidentiary record developed in the district
    court. See Rompilla v. Beard, 
    545 U.S. 374
    , 390 (2005) (reviewing
    Strickland prejudice de novo because the state court did not
    reach that issue); see also Thomas v. Clements, 
    789 F.3d 760
    ,
    766–67 (7th Cir. 2015) (collecting cases adhering to this same
    approach).
    The controlling substantive standard comes from Hill v.
    Lockhart, 
    474 U.S. 52
    (1985). The Court decided Hill one year
    No. 19-1476                                                   13
    after Strickland and did so to articulate what a defendant must
    show to establish that his trial counsel rendered ineffective as-
    sistance in advising him to plead guilty. First, and in full
    alignment with Strickland, the defendant must show that his
    counsel’s performance fell below an objective standard of rea-
    sonableness. See
    id. at 58.
    Second, when it comes to prejudice,
    “the defendant must show that there is a reasonable probabil-
    ity that, but for counsel’s errors, he would not have pleaded
    guilty and would have insisted on going to trial.”
    Id. at 59.
    The
    Court went further and addressed how the inquiry changes
    where, as here, counsel allegedly failed to advise his client of
    an affirmative defense. See
    id. at 59–60.
    In those circum-
    stances, the Court explained, “the resolution of the ‘prejudice’
    inquiry will depend largely on whether the affirmative de-
    fense likely would have succeeded at trial.”
    Id. at 59.
        The standards announced in Hill map directly onto Gish’s
    claim and put him under an obligation to make a twofold
    showing. First, Gish had to show that Opland-Dobs per-
    formed deficiently in failing to investigate the Xanax-based
    defense. Second, Gish had to demonstrate that there existed a
    reasonable probability that, had his counsel investigated the
    defense, he would have rejected the plea offer and proceeded
    to trial with a likelihood of succeeding on the defense. See
    id. at 59.
        Gish urges a slightly different standard—one informed
    not only by Hill but even more by the Supreme Court’s deci-
    sion in Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    (2017). Like Gish,
    Jae Lee pleaded guilty after his trial counsel advised him that
    going to trial would be risky, and following a conviction, re-
    sult in more jail time. See
    id. at 1963.
    But Lee had a considera-
    tion other than prison top of mind. He told his attorney he
    14                                                  No. 19-1476
    was a noncitizen and “repeatedly asked him whether he
    would face deportation as a result of the criminal proceed-
    ings.”
    Id. Lee’s attorney
    reassured him that a guilty plea
    would not result in deportation. Lee relied on and followed
    the advice even though it was wrong. By pleading guilty to
    an aggravated felony, Lee faced mandatory deportation un-
    der the Immigration and Nationality Act—the precise out-
    come he wanted to avoid. See
    id. (citing 8
    U.S.C.
    §§ 1101(a)(43)(B), 1227(a)(2)(A)(iii)). Lee later pursued federal
    habeas relief, arguing that his attorney had rendered ineffec-
    tive assistance of counsel that resulted in severe prejudice. See
    id. The Supreme
    Court agreed. Usually a defendant “without
    any viable defense will be highly likely to lose at trial,” and
    when “facing such long odds will rarely be able to show prej-
    udice from accepting a guilty plea that offers him a better res-
    olution than would be likely after trial.”
    Id. at 1966.
    For Lee,
    however, “avoiding deportation was the determinative fac-
    tor”—the variable of “paramount importance”—in deciding
    whether to plead guilty or go to trial, while the time he spent
    in prison was relatively inconsequential to his litigation strat-
    egy.
    Id. at 1967–69.
    Lee’s counsel eliminated any doubt on the
    point, testifying that Lee would have gone to trial had he been
    properly informed that deportation would follow as auto-
    matic consequence of pleading guilty. See
    id. at 1967–68.
        All of this led the Court to conclude that Lee “would have
    rejected any plea leading to deportation—even if it shaved off
    prison time—in favor of throwing a ‘Hail Mary’ at trial.”
    Id. at 1967.
    Lee’s laser focus on averting deportation, the Court
    underscored, showed that his counsel’s errors prejudiced
    him.
    Id. at 1967–68.
    No. 19-1476                                                     15
    Gish labors to situate himself like Lee. He does so mindful
    of Hill, but of the view that Lee modifies the prejudice ques-
    tion. In Gish’s view, Lee teaches that he could show prejudice
    by now contending in federal habeas that he would have gone
    to trial on a Xanax-based defense even if that defense had only
    one percent chance of success.
    We disagree and see Lee as reinforcing, not transforming,
    Hill. In Lee the Court took care to observe that defendants
    without a viable defense would “rarely” be able to show prej-
    udice from a guilty plea that reduces their sentencing expo-
    sure. See
    id. at 1966.
    Put most simply, the certainty of less jail
    time creates an incentive to avoid the longer shot of an acquit-
    tal at trial. See
    id. Lee was
    a rare exception: from Jae Lee’s per-
    spective, the consequences of pleading guilty and going to
    trial were “similarly dire”—he would be deported either
    way—so he was willing to bet on “even the smallest chance of
    success at trial.”
    Id. at 1966–67.
    Properly informed, Lee would
    have found nothing attractive about a plea offer that reduced
    his prison time (a relatively minor concern for him) but guar-
    anteed his deportation—the outcome he most wanted to
    avoid.
    Gish’s case is much different. The district court found that,
    unlike Jae Lee, Christopher Gish decided to plead guilty
    “based primarily on the prospects of success at trial.” Gish all
    but said so himself, testifying in the district court that he
    pleaded guilty because Opland-Dobs informed him that he
    had no chance of winning at trial. The district court further
    found that, in contrast with Lee’s persistent concern about de-
    portation, nothing in Gish’s communications with Opland-
    Dobs indicated that some factor other than the prospect of
    success would have motivated Gish to go to trial.
    16                                                No. 19-1476
    Unlike Lee, then, Gish wanted to consider an involuntary
    intoxication defense because he thought it might provide a
    basis to defeat the homicide charge. What is more, Gish, un-
    like Lee, said not a word—neither to his trial counsel nor to
    the district court—suggesting that he was willing to forgo a
    meaningful reduction in his sentencing exposure (from man-
    datory life imprisonment to a maximum of 60 years) to avoid
    collateral consequences. Put another way, the record shows
    that Gish thought about whether to plead guilty or to go to
    trial in just the way the Supreme Court in Lee described as
    paradigmatic for most defendants—by comparing the proba-
    bility of success at trial with the value of a reduced sentence
    from pleading guilty.
    On the record before us, then, we decline Gish’s invitation
    to deviate from the prejudice inquiry the Supreme Court ar-
    ticulated in Hill. The proper question therefore is whether
    there was a reasonable probability that Gish would have gone
    to trial on his affirmative defense, with the answer “de-
    pend[ing] largely on whether the affirmative defense likely
    would have succeeded at trial.” 
    Hill, 474 U.S. at 59
    .
    C
    In the end, we agree with the district court that Gish’s
    Xanax-based involuntary intoxication defense had no reason-
    able prospect of success at trial. Even assuming he could mar-
    shal the evidence required to get a jury instruction on the de-
    fense, we see no likelihood the defense would have persuaded
    a jury that Xanax rendered him unable to appreciate the dif-
    ference between right and wrong at the time he stabbed Lit-
    wicki to death. Our confidence in this conclusion emerges
    from the detailed facts the jury would have learned:
    No. 19-1476                                                17
    •   Gish told a hospital nurse that he sold his pills
    and no longer had any.
    •   Gish told Detective Hart that he last took Xanax
    “[a] couple days” before the homicide.
    •   The police who searched Gish’s home found no
    trace of Xanax.
    •   Even if Gish had taken Xanax the day of the
    homicide, it was unlikely that he was the rare
    patient who would have experienced effects so
    extreme as to prevent him from appreciating
    the wrongfulness of his conduct. The district
    court found that the little evidence Gish offered
    on that front (from his expert witness, James
    O’Donnell) lacked credibility.
    •   In his interview with Detective Hart, Gish con-
    fessed to how he went about killing and abus-
    ing Litwicki—statements revealing an aware-
    ness of his own conduct.
    •   Gish also offered a clear motive for the crime—
    that he suspected Litwicki was cheating on him
    and would take his kids away.
    The combined weight of these facts would have left Gish
    with no likely prospect of prevailing on an involuntary intox-
    ication defense and defeating the state’s robust case against
    him. By extension, then, and especially given Gish’s focus on
    offering a defense with a chance of succeeding, we have diffi-
    culty believing that Gish would have proceeded to trial and
    run the substantial risk of being convicted and receiving a
    mandatory sentence of life in prison. See Padilla v. Kentucky,
    
    559 U.S. 356
    , 372 (2010) (emphasizing that a petitioner
    18                                                  No. 19-1476
    challenging a guilty plea must show “that a decision to reject
    the plea bargain would have been rational under the circum-
    stances”); see also Woolley v. Rednour, 
    702 F.3d 411
    , 429 (7th
    Cir. 2012) (rejecting prejudice where the defendant had made
    the bare and unpersuasive allegation that wrongfully ex-
    cluded witness testimony could have led to acquittal).
    Because Gish cannot show prejudice from his trial coun-
    sel’s errors, we agree with the district court that he is not en-
    titled to habeas relief on his ineffective assistance claim. We
    therefore AFFIRM.