Zane Dickinson v. David Shinn ( 2021 )


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  •                FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    ZANE DICKINSON,                          No. 20-15175
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                      3:18-cv-08037-
    MTL
    DAVID SHINN, Director; ATTORNEY
    GENERAL FOR THE STATE OF
    ARIZONA,                                   OPINION
    Respondents-Appellees.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    Michael T. Liburdi, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted November 19, 2020
    Phoenix, Arizona
    Filed June 22, 2021
    Before: Richard C. Tallman, Jay S. Bybee, and
    Bridget S. Bade, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Bade
    2                     DICKINSON V. SHINN
    SUMMARY *
    Habeas Corpus
    The panel affirmed the district court’s denial of Zane
    Dickinson’s habeas corpus petition challenging his Arizona
    state court conviction for attempted second-degree murder
    in a case in which the trial court misstated Arizona law in its
    instructions to the jury by implying that a defendant could
    be guilty of attempted second-degree murder if he merely
    intended to cause serious physical injury, not death.
    Trial counsel failed to object to the erroneous instruction.
    With different counsel, Dickinson unsuccessfully
    challenged the error on direct appeal. He petitioned for state
    post-conviction relief, but his counsel did not raise any
    claims related to the instructional error, and the state trial and
    appellate courts denied relief. The district court denied
    Dickinson’s federal habeas corpus petition, declining to
    excuse Dickinson’s procedural default of these claims.
    In this appeal, Dickinson asked this court to excuse his
    procedural default under Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
    (2012), so that he could seek habeas relief on the basis of
    constitutionally ineffective assistance of trial counsel
    (IATC).
    Dickinson asserted two theories in an effort to establish
    prejudice and excuse the procedural default.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                       3
    He argued that his trial counsel’s failure to object
    prejudiced him because it deprived him of a more favorable
    standard of review on direct appeal. Rejecting this theory on
    a different ground than the district court did, the panel held
    that as a matter of federal law, Dickinson cannot satisfy
    Strickland’s prejudice requirement for his IATC claim
    merely by showing that trial counsel’s failure to object to a
    jury instruction deprived him of a more favorable standard
    of review on direct appeal.
    Dickinson also argued that his IATC claim is substantial
    because his trial counsel’s failure to object to the erroneous
    instruction prejudiced him at trial. The panel noted that the
    record amply supports the Arizona Court of Appeals’
    characterization of the trial, and held that Dickinson cannot
    demonstrate a reasonable probability that the trial would
    have had a different outcome without the erroneous
    instruction, where the jury heard overwhelming evidence
    that Dickinson intended to kill the victim, it heard only a few
    passing comments that it could have conceivably construed
    as evidence that Dickinson did not intend to kill the victim,
    and neither the State nor defense counsel ever suggested that
    Dickinson intended only to cause serious physical injury.
    COUNSEL
    Molly A. Karlin (argued), Assistant Federal Public
    Defender; Jon M. Sands, Federal Public Defender; Office of
    the Federal Public Defender, Phoenix, Arizona; for
    Petitioner-Appellant.
    Jillian B. Francis (argued) and Jason D. Lewis, Assistant
    Attorneys General; J.D. Nielsen, Habeas Unit Chief; Mark
    4                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    Brnovich, Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General,
    Phoenix, Arizona; for Respondents-Appellees.
    OPINION
    BADE, Circuit Judge:
    During Zane Dickinson’s trial for attempted second-
    degree murder, the court misstated Arizona law in its
    instructions to the jury, and his trial counsel failed to object
    to the erroneous instruction. With different counsel,
    Dickinson challenged the error on direct appeal; the Arizona
    Court of Appeals affirmed his conviction and the Arizona
    Supreme Court denied review. Dickinson petitioned for
    state post-conviction relief, but his counsel did not raise any
    claims related to the instructional error. After the state trial
    and appellate courts denied relief, Dickinson filed a petition
    for a writ of habeas corpus in federal district court, pursuant
    to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    , asserting claims based on the erroneous
    instruction.     The district court declined to excuse
    Dickinson’s procedural default of these claims. In this
    appeal, Dickinson asks us to excuse his procedural default
    so that he can seek habeas relief on the basis of
    constitutionally ineffective assistance of trial counsel. We
    conclude that he has not established a basis to excuse the
    procedural default of these claims, and we affirm.
    I
    In 2011, Dickinson was indicted in Mohave County
    Superior Court on one count of attempted second-degree
    murder, two counts of aggravated assault, and one count of
    leaving the scene of an accident. The indictment alleged that
    the victim was riding his bicycle when Dickinson repeatedly
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                        5
    attempted to run over him with his truck. Dickinson pleaded
    not guilty to all counts.
    At trial, Dickinson’s counsel argued that Dickinson was
    not present when the crime occurred and that he was
    mistaken for the perpetrator. In his opening statement,
    Dickinson’s counsel described how July 2, 2011 was a
    “perfectly ordinary day” for Dickinson, who spent the
    morning attending a swap meet and visiting a friend before
    returning home. “The next thing he knows, the police show
    up, he’s being accused of a crime, he’s being handcuffed
    behind his back and treated like a criminal, he’s being
    thrown in the back of a cruiser, still not really sure what is
    going on.”
    During the State’s case-in-chief, the victim testified that
    he had known Dickinson for over twenty years, that they
    were friends, and that he had loaned Dickinson “[a] weed
    eater and some other tools” to do “side jobs for yards and
    stuff.” After the victim learned that Dickinson failed to
    complete a job despite accepting an advance payment, he
    decided he wanted his tools back, and the two friends had a
    falling-out when Dickinson refused to return them. The
    victim recounted that several weeks before the attack, the
    two got into a fistfight and Dickinson “pulled a knife on
    [him]” after the victim knocked Dickinson down.
    The victim stated that on July 2, he “was riding [his] bike
    around” when he spotted Dickinson’s truck in front of his
    friend Brett Altizer’s house. The victim got off his bike and
    “walk[ed] by the truck,” and then he saw Dickinson “pull[]
    out this ax, and he’s coming at me,” so the victim pulled out
    6                     DICKINSON V. SHINN
    a baseball bat he kept on his bike. 1 He stated that Dickinson
    was cursing at him and “telling [him] he’s going to kill
    [him],” but Altizer intervened and stopped the fight. The
    victim “proceeded to put [his] bat away”; “eventually
    [Dickinson] put the ax away,” and the victim “apologized to
    the guy for bringing problems to his house, . . . got on his
    bike[,] and rode away.”
    About ten minutes later, as he rode toward his house, he
    saw Dickinson driving his truck. He testified:
    I looked up and I seen him, and the last
    thing in my head is, he smiled. So next thing
    I know, he revved up his motor and he shot
    towards me.        And I remember what
    happened. He hit the back of my bike, he had
    spun me all the way around about ten feet in
    the dirt. I landed on the dirt. . . .
    [Then] this white truck pulls in front and
    stops him, I get back on my bike and I take
    off towards my house. . . .
    I got on my bike; I just took off riding. . . .
    I think I lost him, right; and all of a sudden I
    hear his motor revving up, and I look back
    and he’s no more than maybe a foot from my
    bumper, and he’s laughing, so I realize
    what’s going on.
    The victim tried to turn toward a fence, but as he described
    at trial, “When I go to do that, at the same time he turns his
    1
    The victim stated that he regularly carried a bat for protection
    because “the area was really bad about dogs.”
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                        7
    wheel and hit[s] my bike; and that’s the last thing I
    remember, and I wake up in the hospital.” The victim also
    recounted that during the attack, Dickinson “had that look in
    his face like, you know, he was going to kill me.”
    Altizer, who broke up the fight between Dickinson and
    the victim on his property shortly before the attack, testified
    that “[e]arlier that morning” on the day of the attack,
    Dickinson “said, ‘I’m going to run him over.’” Altizer
    testified that after the attack Dickinson returned to his house,
    “tossed [him] the keys, and was saying something about ‘he
    did it.’”
    The jury also heard evidence that the victim sustained
    multiple injuries including a concussion, other head injuries
    requiring thirteen stitches, and a broken ankle, that his
    “funny bone was ripped out” from his elbow, and that his
    biceps and triceps muscles were separated from the bone in
    one arm.
    Defense counsel did not call any witnesses or present any
    evidence. Instead, he focused on trying to undermine the
    credibility of the State’s witnesses. For example, during his
    cross-examination of the victim, defense counsel elicited
    that the victim had a prior felony conviction, that the victim
    had been taking pain medications ever since the attack, and
    that the victim had filed a claim against Dickinson’s
    insurance. Defense counsel also questioned the victim about
    the distance between him and the truck when he saw it during
    the attack, as well as how long the victim was able to see the
    driver.
    Similarly, defense counsel attempted to discredit Robert
    Todd, an eyewitness who closely corroborated the victim’s
    account of the attack, by questioning him at length about
    medications that he took, and casting doubt on whether the
    8                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    witness got a good enough look at the driver of the truck to
    conclude it was Dickinson. Similarly, defense counsel
    extensively questioned the testifying police officers and
    investigators about their training, and about how they
    investigated this case.
    In his closing argument, defense counsel offered an
    alternative account:
    What really happened—really happened
    was [Brett] Altizer, where Zane had left his
    truck and his keys, takes Zane’s truck and is
    driving down the street they are talking
    about, and he struck [the victim]. Maybe he
    got frightened and he left the scene. [The
    victim] calls, because they are friends, we
    know they are friends. Brett told you that he
    was a friend of [the victim], or at least an
    acquaintance of [the victim]. So why didn’t
    you stop? You hit me driving Zane’s truck?
    And at that point it sinks in amongst the
    three of them, because Brett knew Zane had
    insurance, he told you that; but he had taken
    that truck without the owner’s permission.
    He asserted that Altizer and the victim then discussed the
    accident and decided to blame Dickinson. He also argued
    that there was “bad blood” between Dickinson and these
    witnesses, and that the victim’s “chances are going to be
    quite a bit better with the insurance company if [Dickinson]
    is convicted of attempted murder, felony assault, leaving the
    scene of the accident by a jury of his peers.” He spent the
    remainder of his argument attempting to undermine the other
    witnesses’ credibility, discussing alleged “inconsistencies in
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                     9
    their stories,” arguing that the police investigation was a
    “comedy of errors” involving “at least 12 substantial things
    they didn’t do” properly, and arguing there was inadequate
    evidence of the extent of the victim’s injuries.
    At the conclusion of the three-day trial, the trial court
    instructed the jury on the second-degree murder charge as
    follows:
    The crime of attempted second degree
    murder has three elements. In order to find
    the defendant guilty of attempted second
    degree murder, you must find that, number
    one, the defendant intentionally did some act;
    and number two, the defendant believed such
    act was a step in the course of conduct
    planned to culminate in the commission of
    the crime of second degree murder; and
    number three, the defendant did so with the
    mental state required for the commission of
    the crime of second degree murder.
    It is not necessary that you find that the
    defendant committed the crime of second
    degree murder; only that he attempted to
    commit such crime.
    The crime of second degree murder has
    the following elements: Number one, the
    defendant caused the death of another person;
    and number two, the defendant either, A, did
    so intentionally or, B, knew that his conduct
    would cause death or serious physical injury.
    10                  DICKINSON V. SHINN
    By implying that a defendant could be guilty of attempted
    second-degree murder if he merely intended to cause serious
    physical injury, not death, this instruction contradicted
    Arizona precedent holding that “[t]he offense of attempted
    second-degree murder requires proof that the defendant
    intended or knew that his conduct would cause death.” State
    v. Ontiveros, 
    81 P.3d 330
    , 333 (Ariz. Ct. App. 2003).
    However, Dickinson’s counsel did not object to the
    instruction.
    The jury returned a general verdict finding Dickinson
    guilty on all counts. The court imposed concurrent sentences
    of twelve years’ imprisonment on the attempted second-
    degree murder count, and nine and seven years respectively
    on the two aggravated assault counts; it also imposed a two-
    year sentence, to be served consecutively to the other
    sentences, for leaving the scene of an accident.
    On direct appeal, Dickinson was represented by a
    different attorney, and he challenged the attempted second-
    degree murder conviction, arguing that the jury instruction
    was erroneous under Ontiveros. Because Dickinson failed
    to preserve the issue for appeal, the Arizona Court of
    Appeals applied a “fundamental error” standard of review,
    placing the burden on Dickinson to “establish that (1) error
    exists, (2) the error is fundamental, and (3) the error caused
    him prejudice.” State v. Dickinson, 
    314 P.3d 1282
    , 1285
    (Ariz. Ct. App. 2013) (quotation marks and citation omitted).
    Although the Arizona Court of Appeals agreed that the
    instruction was erroneous and that the error was
    fundamental, it held that Dickinson had not carried his
    burden of showing prejudice. 
    Id.
     at 1285–88. Dickinson and
    the State both unsuccessfully petitioned the Arizona
    Supreme Court for review.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                    11
    Dickinson then filed a petition for state post-conviction
    relief through counsel, raising two claims that were both
    unrelated to the instructional error. The trial court denied
    relief on both claims. Dickinson filed a pro se petition for
    review with the Arizona Court of Appeals, arguing that his
    post-conviction counsel had represented him ineffectively.
    The Arizona Court of Appeals denied the petition, finding
    that the trial court had correctly denied relief on the two
    claims counsel raised and that Dickinson had no right to
    effective assistance of post-conviction counsel under
    Arizona law.
    In February 2018, Dickinson filed a timely pro se
    petition pursuant to 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     in federal district
    court, seeking a writ of habeas corpus. He raised two
    grounds for relief: (1) that the erroneous jury instruction
    violated his Fourteenth Amendment due process rights; and
    (2) that his trial counsel’s failure to object to the jury
    instruction deprived him of his Sixth Amendment right to the
    effective assistance of counsel. While the petition was
    pending, Dickinson filed a motion for the appointment of
    counsel, which the magistrate judge granted.
    After additional briefing, the magistrate judge issued a
    report and recommendation (R&R) in which she
    recommended that relief be denied as to Dickinson’s due
    process claim and granted as to his ineffective assistance of
    counsel claim. She concluded that although both claims
    were procedurally defaulted, the default was excused as to
    the ineffective assistance claim under Martinez v. Ryan,
    
    566 U.S. 1
     (2012).
    The district court accepted the magistrate judge’s R&R
    as to Dickinson’s due process claim but rejected it as to his
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim, thus denying relief
    on both grounds. The district court also disagreed with the
    12                  DICKINSON V. SHINN
    magistrate judge’s prejudice analysis under Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). The district court held
    that the relevant question was not whether Dickinson could
    have prevailed on appeal in obtaining a new trial, but only
    whether Dickinson would have prevailed at trial but for the
    error, and that Dickinson had not met Strickland’s standard
    for showing prejudice at trial. Because the district court
    concluded that Dickinson’s ineffective assistance of trial
    counsel (IATC) claim was not “substantial” under Martinez,
    it denied Dickinson’s claim, holding both that his procedural
    default was not excused and that the claim failed on the
    merits. However, the district court granted a certificate of
    appealability on “whether an inquiry into trial counsel’s
    effectiveness under Strickland includes an evaluation of
    whether the direct appeal would have been different, but for
    trial counsel’s missteps,” and “whether Strickland in this
    context allows prejudice to be found solely because the court
    cannot know the legal theory under which the jury convicted
    the defendant.” Dickinson timely appealed.
    II
    We review “de novo a district court’s decision regarding
    habeas relief, including questions regarding procedural
    default.” Jones v. Shinn, 
    943 F.3d 1211
    , 1219–20 (9th Cir.
    2019). “Ineffective assistance of counsel claims are mixed
    questions of law and fact which we also review de novo.”
    
    Id. at 1220
    .
    III
    We begin with an overview of the relevant legal
    framework before addressing Dickinson’s arguments for
    excusing his procedural default. In general, “[f]ederal
    habeas courts reviewing convictions from state courts will
    not consider claims that a state court refused to hear based
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                           13
    on an adequate and independent state procedural ground.”
    Davila v. Davis, 
    137 S. Ct. 2058
    , 2062 (2017); see Coleman
    v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 747–48 (1991). However, the
    Supreme Court has recognized “a narrow exception” to this
    so-called procedural default rule when a petitioner “can
    establish ‘cause’ to excuse the procedural default and
    demonstrate that he suffered actual prejudice from the
    alleged error.” Davila, 137 S. Ct. at 2062. The Court
    explained:
    Where, under state law, claims of ineffective
    assistance of trial counsel must be raised in
    an initial-review collateral proceeding, a
    procedural default will not bar a federal
    habeas court from hearing a substantial claim
    of ineffective assistance at trial if, in the
    initial-review collateral proceeding, there
    was no counsel or counsel in that proceeding
    was ineffective.
    Martinez, 
    566 U.S. at 17
    . 2
    To satisfy Martinez’s “cause” prong based on post-
    conviction counsel’s failure to raise a claim, a petitioner
    must show that post-conviction counsel was ineffective
    under the standards of Strickland. Martinez, 
    566 U.S. at 14
    .
    A petitioner cannot satisfy this requirement if the underlying
    “ineffective-assistance-of-trial-counsel          claim         is
    insubstantial, i.e., it does not have any merit or [] it is wholly
    without factual support, or [] the attorney in the initial-
    review collateral proceeding did not perform below
    constitutional standards.” 
    Id. at 16
    ; see Sexton v. Cozner,
    2
    Arizona courts appoint counsel at the defendant’s request in any
    first collateral proceeding. See Ariz. R. Crim. P. 32.5(a)(1).
    14                      DICKINSON V. SHINN
    
    679 F.3d 1150
    , 1157 (9th Cir. 2012) (“[C]learly we cannot
    hold counsel ineffective for failing to raise a claim that is
    meritless.”). “Accordingly, [post-conviction] counsel would
    not be ineffective for failure to raise an ineffective assistance
    of counsel claim with respect to trial counsel who was not
    constitutionally ineffective.” Sexton, 679 F.3d at 1157.
    Similarly, to satisfy Martinez’s “prejudice” prong, a
    petitioner must “demonstrate that the underlying ineffective-
    assistance-of-trial-counsel claim is a substantial one, which
    is to say that the prisoner must demonstrate that the claim
    has some merit.” Martinez, 
    566 U.S. at 14
    . 3
    In sum, “to establish cause and prejudice in order to
    excuse the procedural default of his ineffective assistance of
    trial counsel claim,” a petitioner must demonstrate:
    “(1) post-conviction counsel performed deficiently;
    (2) ‘there was a reasonable probability that, absent the
    deficient performance, the result of the post-conviction
    proceedings would have been different’; and (3) the
    ‘underlying ineffective-assistance-of-trial-counsel claim is a
    substantial one.’” Ramirez v. Ryan, 
    937 F.3d 1230
    , 1242
    (9th Cir. 2019) (internal citations omitted), cert. granted sub
    nom. Shinn v. Ramirez, No. 20-1009, 
    2021 WL 1951793
    (U.S. May 17, 2021). Thus, whether Dickinson’s procedural
    default is excused depends on the merits of his underlying
    IATC claim, and specifically, on whether Dickinson can
    show that he was prejudiced within the meaning of
    3
    Notably, the Martinez “cause” and “prejudice” analyses overlap
    with each other because the determination whether there is a “reasonable
    probability that the result of the post-conviction proceedings would have
    been different” had post-conviction counsel raised an issue is
    “necessarily connected to the strength of the argument that trial counsel’s
    assistance was ineffective.” Clabourne v. Ryan, 
    745 F.3d 362
    , 377 (9th
    Cir. 2014), overruled on other grounds by McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
    , 818 (9th Cir. 2015) (en banc).
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                      15
    Strickland by his trial counsel’s failure to object to the
    erroneous jury instruction.
    IV
    Dickinson asserts two different theories in an effort to
    establish prejudice and excuse the procedural default of his
    claims—that he was deprived of a more favorable standard
    of review on appeal and that he was prejudiced at trial. We
    reject both arguments and affirm the district court on the
    ground that Dickinson has not presented a substantial IATC
    claim.
    A
    Dickinson argues that his trial counsel’s failure to object
    prejudiced him because it deprived him of a more favorable
    standard of review on direct appeal. While we affirm the
    district court’s holding that Dickinson failed to show
    prejudice on this theory, we do so on a different basis than
    the one the district court articulated.
    1
    The district court did not decide whether, as a general
    matter, “an inquiry into trial counsel’s effectiveness under
    Strickland includes an evaluation of whether the appeal
    would have been different, but for trial counsel’s missteps.”
    Instead, it held that Dickinson could not have shown
    prejudice to his direct appeal in his state collateral
    proceedings because Arizona courts have rejected that
    approach. See State v. Speers, 
    361 P.3d 952
    , 960 (Ariz. Ct.
    App. 2015) (rejecting an IATC petitioner’s argument that
    “framed the issue . . . in the context of counsel’s failure to
    preserve [his] claims for appeal,” reasoning that “[h]e is
    challenging his attorney’s conduct at his trial, and must show
    16                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    that [the attorney’s] alleged unprofessional errors and
    omissions were sufficiently prejudicial that they
    ‘undermine[d] confidence in the outcome’ of that
    proceeding.” (last alteration in original) (quoting Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    )).
    Dickinson argues that this court “does not defer to
    Arizona law generally as to the interpretation of [federal]
    constitutional questions,” and that Arizona courts’ approach
    to analyzing Strickland prejudice is irrelevant to a federal
    habeas court’s evaluation of an IATC claim. Although this
    is true, in analyzing whether Dickinson’s procedural default
    is excused based on his state post-conviction counsel’s
    failure to raise a ground for relief, it is nevertheless relevant
    to consider whether prevailing case law disfavored that
    ground. See, e.g., Jones v. Barnes, 
    463 U.S. 745
    , 751–52
    (1983) (“Experienced advocates since time beyond memory
    have emphasized the importance of winnowing out weaker
    arguments on appeal and focusing on one central issue if
    possible, or at most a few key issues.”); cf. Smith v. Robbins,
    
    528 U.S. 259
    , 288 (2000) (explaining that while it is
    “possible to bring a Strickland claim based on counsel’s
    failure to raise a particular claim, . . . it is difficult to
    demonstrate that counsel was incompetent” for failing to
    raise the claim).
    Further complicating the matter, Speers was decided by
    Division Two of the Arizona Court of Appeals, while
    Dickinson’s post-conviction proceedings took place in
    Division One. Thus, while Speers would have been
    persuasive “absent a decision by the Arizona Supreme Court
    compelling a contrary result,” it would not have completely
    foreclosed Dickinson from obtaining state post-conviction
    relief with his prejudice-on-appeal theory. Scappaticci v.
    Sw. Sav. & Loan Ass’n, 
    662 P.2d 131
    , 136 (Ariz. 1983).
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                          17
    Rather than resolve these issues, we affirm the district
    court on the more general ground that as a matter of federal
    law, Dickinson cannot satisfy Strickland’s prejudice
    requirement for his IATC claim merely by showing that trial
    counsel’s failure to object to a jury instruction deprived him
    of a more favorable standard of review on direct appeal.
    2
    Dickinson argues that under the Strickland prejudice
    analysis, we must consider not only whether his trial
    counsel’s error undermines confidence in the jury’s verdict,
    but also whether it “undermines confidence in the outcome
    of the direct appeal.” To the extent these two inquiries might
    yield different answers (that is, that there is a reasonable
    probability that a petitioner may have prevailed on appeal
    but for counsel’s error, but there is no reasonable probability
    that the jury’s verdict would have been different), this
    approach would be contrary not only to the Supreme Court’s
    prejudice analysis in Strickland, but also a steady line of
    subsequent cases holding that the IATC prejudice analysis
    focuses on the effect of an alleged error on the verdict—that
    is, on outcome of the trial. See, e.g., Lockhart v. Fretwell,
    
    506 U.S. 364
    , 372 (1993) (noting that Strickland’s prejudice
    inquiry “focuses on the question whether counsel’s deficient
    performance renders the result of the trial unreliable or the
    proceeding fundamentally unfair”); Walker v. Martel,
    
    709 F.3d 925
    , 941 (9th Cir. 2013) (“Strickland requires an
    actual finding that it is reasonably probable that, but for the
    unprofessional errors, the outcome at trial would have been
    different.” (emphasis added)). 4
    4
    Thus, the Supreme Court has repeatedly cautioned that “the rules
    governing ineffective-assistance claims ‘must be applied with
    18                       DICKINSON V. SHINN
    If we accepted Dickinson’s theory of prejudice based on
    the loss of a more favorable standard of appellate review, we
    would be allowing an end run around Strickland’s stringent
    requirement of demonstrating that “but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding”—not
    merely the defendant’s burden during a subsequent
    proceeding—“would have been different.” Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
     (emphasis added). We decline to adopt a
    theory that would expand prejudice beyond the Court’s
    analysis in Strickland.
    Dickinson cites Roe v. Flores-Ortega, 
    528 U.S. 470
    (2000), to argue that “Strickland applies to ‘counsel’s
    performance during the course of a legal proceeding, either
    at trial or on appeal.’” In Flores-Ortega, after a defendant
    pleaded guilty to second-degree murder and was sentenced,
    his court-appointed trial counsel failed to file a timely notice
    of appeal. 
    Id.
     at 473–74. The defendant subsequently
    sought federal habeas relief, alleging ineffective assistance
    of counsel based on his trial counsel’s failure to file a notice
    of appeal. 
    Id. at 474
    . The Supreme Court observed that
    “counsel has a constitutionally imposed duty to consult with
    the defendant about an appeal when there is reason to think
    scrupulous care,’” Weaver v. Massachusetts, 
    137 S. Ct. 1899
    , 1912
    (2017) (citation omitted), lest “‘[a]n ineffective-assistance claim . . .
    function as a way to escape rules of waiver and forfeiture and raise issues
    not presented at trial,’ thus undermining the finality of jury verdicts,” 
    id.
    (first alteration in original) (quoting Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    ,
    105 (2011)). See also Premo v. Moore, 
    562 U.S. 115
    , 122 (2011) (“An
    ineffective-assistance claim can function as a way to escape rules of
    waiver and forfeiture and raise issues not presented at trial . . . , and so
    the Strickland standard must be applied with scrupulous care, lest
    ‘intrusive post-trial inquiry’ threaten the integrity of the very adversary
    process the right to counsel is meant to serve.” (quoting Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at
    689–90)).
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                        19
    either (1) that a rational defendant would want to appeal . . . ,
    or (2) that this particular defendant reasonably demonstrated
    to counsel that he was interested in appealing.” Id. at 480.
    The Court further held that “to show prejudice in these
    circumstances, a defendant must demonstrate that there is a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s deficient
    failure to consult with him about an appeal, he would have
    timely appealed.” Id. at 484.
    The Court explained that although Strickland’s prejudice
    prong ordinarily requires a “defendant to demonstrate that
    the errors ‘actually had an adverse effect on the defense,’”
    id. at 482 (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 693
    ), this case was
    “unusual in that counsel’s alleged deficient performance
    arguably led not to a judicial proceeding of disputed
    reliability, but rather to the forfeiture of a proceeding itself,”
    id. at 483. Under these unique circumstances, the Court
    reasoned, the “denial of the entire judicial proceeding itself,
    which a defendant wanted at the time and to which he had a
    right, . . . demands a presumption of prejudice. Put simply,
    we cannot accord any presumption of reliability to judicial
    proceedings that never took place.” Id. (internal quotation
    marks and citation omitted).
    Flores-Ortega does not support Dickinson’s argument
    that the loss of a more favorable standard of appellate review
    due to counsel’s failure to object to a jury instruction
    satisfies Strickland’s prejudice prong. Counsel’s failure to
    object to a jury instruction did not “deprive[]” Dickinson of
    “an appeal altogether.” Id. Instead, ordinary trial errors like
    this fall under the general rule that the Supreme Court
    carefully reiterated and distinguished on the facts in Flores-
    Ortega: “We normally apply a strong presumption of
    reliability to judicial proceedings and require a defendant to
    overcome that presumption by showing how specific errors
    20                     DICKINSON V. SHINN
    of counsel undermined the reliability of the finding of guilt.”
    Id. at 482 (alteration adopted) (internal quotation marks and
    citations omitted). Indeed, Dickinson does not argue that the
    failure to object to a jury instruction is an error of such
    “magnitude” that it calls for “presum[ing] prejudice.” Id.
    Instead, he cites Flores-Ortega to argue that a defendant can
    show he was prejudiced by trial counsel’s deficient
    performance based solely on the loss of a more favorable
    standard of review in appellate proceedings. But nothing in
    Flores-Ortega supports this argument. 5
    However, the Eleventh Circuit’s reasoning in Davis v.
    Secretary for the Department of Corrections, 
    341 F.3d 1310
    (11th Cir. 2003) is instructive on the issue of when the
    outcome of an appeal is relevant to the prejudice inquiry for
    an IATC claim. In Davis, defense counsel objected to the
    state’s repeated peremptory strikes of black jurors during
    voir dire, but then failed to renew his objection at the
    conclusion of voir dire as required under Florida law to
    preserve a Batson challenge for appeal. 
    Id.
     at 1314–15. On
    federal habeas review, the Eleventh Circuit held that trial
    5
    Dickinson also cites Garza v. Idaho, 
    139 S. Ct. 738
     (2019), to
    support his theory of prejudice on appeal, but that case is similarly
    inapposite. In Garza, the Court merely extended Flores-Ortega’s
    holding to situations when “the defendant has, in the course of pleading
    guilty, signed . . . an appeal waiver.” 
    Id. at 742
     (quotation marks and
    citation omitted). The Court held that “when an attorney’s deficient
    performance costs a defendant an appeal that the defendant would have
    otherwise pursued,” the “presumption of prejudice recognized in Flores-
    Ortega applies regardless of whether the defendant has signed an appeal
    waiver.” 
    Id.
     The Court relied on the same reasoning as in Flores-
    Ortega, explaining that when trial counsel’s error entirely deprives a
    defendant of an appellate proceeding, Strickland prejudice does not
    depend “on proof that the defendant’s appeal had merit.” 
    Id. at 748
    . This
    holding is unhelpful to Dickinson’s argument for the same reasons the
    holding in Florez-Ortega is unhelpful.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                       21
    counsel had “performed deficiently in failing, as required by
    [Florida law], to renew [defendant’s] Batson challenge
    before accepting the jury.” Id. at 1314. The court went on
    to consider whether, under Strickland, it should assess
    prejudice based on the impact the error had on the trial or on
    the appeal. Id. It concluded that the appropriate focus was
    prejudice on appeal, likening counsel’s failure to renew the
    objection to the attorney’s failure to file a notice of appeal in
    Flores-Ortega:
    As in Flores-Ortega, the attorney error
    Davis identifies was, by its nature, unrelated
    to the outcome of his trial. To now require
    Davis to show an effect upon his trial is to
    require the impossible. Under no readily
    conceivable circumstance will a simple
    failure to preserve a claim—as opposed to a
    failure to raise that claim in the first
    instance—have any bearing on a trial’s
    outcome. Rather, as when defense counsel
    defaults an appeal entirely by failing to file a
    timely notice, the only possible impact is on
    the appeal.
    Accordingly, when a defendant raises the
    unusual claim that trial counsel, while
    efficacious in raising an issue, nonetheless
    failed to preserve it for appeal, the
    appropriate prejudice inquiry asks whether
    there is a reasonable likelihood of a more
    favorable outcome on appeal had the claim
    been preserved.
    Id. at 1315–16. The Eleventh Circuit’s distinction between
    “a simple failure to preserve a claim” and “a failure to raise
    22                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    that claim in the first instance” aptly illustrates why Flores-
    Ortega’s narrow holding does not apply to Dickinson’s
    IATC claim. Id. Dickinson’s claim, based on his trial
    counsel’s failure to object to a jury instruction, is not the sort
    of “unusual claim that trial counsel, while efficacious in
    raising an issue, nonetheless failed to preserve it for appeal.”
    Id. at 1316. Unlike the circumstances in either Flores-
    Ortega or Davis, it is entirely possible to analyze the
    prejudice of an unobjected-to jury instruction upon the
    outcome of the trial itself.
    Dickinson also argues that the Second, Third, and Fifth
    Circuits, along with this circuit in an unpublished
    memorandum disposition, have held “that prejudice exists
    where trial counsel’s failure to preserve an issue for appeal
    prejudiced the outcome of the appeal.” But, as we explain
    next, none of the decisions he cites support this proposition.
    Dickinson first cites Parker v. Ercole, 
    666 F.3d 830
     (2d
    Cir. 2012) (per curiam), in which a § 2254 petitioner argued
    that his trial counsel had ineffectively failed to preserve a
    sufficiency-of-the-evidence objection for appeal after the
    jury returned a guilty verdict. Id. at 832. Because the
    objection would not have affected the trial itself, and the trial
    court would have reviewed such an objection using the same
    standards as the appellate court, the Second Circuit noted
    without analysis that the prejudice prong depended on
    whether, “but for his counsel’s failure to preserve his
    sufficiency claim, there is a reasonable probability that the
    claim would have been considered on appeal and, as a result,
    his conviction would have been reversed.” Id. at 834. The
    Second Circuit did not, however, suggest that the loss of a
    more favorable standard of appellate review could satisfy
    Strickland’s prejudice requirement.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                      23
    He also cites Rogers v. Quarterman, 
    555 F.3d 483
     (5th
    Cir. 2009), where the Fifth Circuit considered the argument
    by a § 2254 petitioner, convicted while still a minor, that “he
    was prejudiced by defense counsel’s mistake” in failing to
    object to the admission of his confession on voluntariness
    grounds. Id. at 495. Although Texas law did not favor such
    a challenge, the petitioner nonetheless argued that counsel’s
    failure to object (and thus preserve the issue for appeal)
    prejudiced him “because his inability to appeal the
    voluntariness of his confession made it impossible for an
    appellate court to adopt a new rule requiring parental access
    during juvenile interrogation,” which—if adopted—would
    have rendered his confession inadmissible. Id.
    In rejecting this argument, the Fifth Circuit did not
    address whether a petitioner could show prejudice based on
    the loss of more favorable appellate review. See id. It
    simply held that the petitioner did not suffer the prejudice he
    claimed, reasoning that “[t]his court has no reason to
    speculate that a Texas appellate court would impose
    additional per se requirements to further protect juveniles,”
    and that absent such a rule, “there is no reasonable likelihood
    that the Fourteenth Court of Appeals, the Texas Court of
    Criminal Appeals, or the United States Supreme Court
    would have found the confession to be involuntary or
    inadmissible had that issue been properly before it.” Id. The
    Fifth Circuit’s brief discussion of how an objection might
    have been resolved had it not been waived—in the course of
    concluding that counsel’s failure to object did not prejudice
    the petitioner—does not support Dickinson’s argument that
    the loss of a more favorable standard of review constitutes
    Strickland prejudice.
    Dickinson also cites Government of the Virgin Islands v.
    Vanterpool, 
    767 F.3d 157
     (3d Cir. 2014), but this decision
    24                  DICKINSON V. SHINN
    does not address the possibility of trial counsel’s error
    prejudicing a defendant on appeal. Instead, the Third Circuit
    held that a § 2254 petitioner’s trial counsel prejudiced him
    by failing to assert a First Amendment challenge to a
    criminal statute because “had [his] attorney raised the issue
    to the trial court, [the statute] would likely have been found
    unconstitutional.” Id. at 168. The Third Circuit did not
    discuss whether this constitutional challenge would have
    succeeded at trial or on appeal; it simply concluded that “the
    First Amendment challenge would have been viable had it
    been raised during trial.” Id. at 160. Moreover, because the
    First Amendment challenge would have invalidated the
    statute of conviction, the prejudice analysis in Vanterpool
    certainly does not support Dickinson’s argument that an
    error may fall short of undermining confidence in the
    outcome of the trial, but nevertheless satisfy Strickland’s
    prejudice prong simply by depriving the defendant of a more
    favorable appellate standard of review.
    Finally, Dickinson argues that in Burdge v. Belleque,
    290 F. App’x 73 (9th Cir. 2008), an unpublished
    memorandum disposition, the Ninth Circuit granted “habeas
    relief because trial counsel’s failure to preserve what would
    have been a meritorious issue on appeal was prejudicial.” In
    Burdge, a defendant’s trial counsel failed to object to the
    application of a state sentencing provision that the Oregon
    Court of Appeals subsequently ruled was inapplicable to
    defendants who, like him, had no felony convictions at the
    time they committed the relevant offense. Id. at 76.
    On federal habeas review, a panel of this court held that
    the Oregon Supreme Court had unreasonably applied
    Strickland in denying the defendant’s IATC claim. Id. at 77.
    The panel concluded that counsel’s failure to object to the
    application of the sentencing provision clearly constituted
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                             25
    deficient performance and that the petitioner was prejudiced
    because, given the state of Oregon law on the sentencing
    provision, “if counsel had objected to [its] applicability . . . ,
    either the sentencing judge would have agreed with the
    objection, or the issue would have been preserved for
    appeal.” Id. at 79.
    Burdge does not support Dickinson’s argument. 6 The
    court in Burdge did not analyze whether the loss of a more
    favorable standard of appellate review satisfies Strickland’s
    prejudice prong for deficient performance by trial counsel.
    Instead, it simply concluded that if trial counsel had objected
    to the sentencing error, “either the sentencing judge would
    have agreed with the objection, or the issue would have been
    preserved for appeal.” Id. To be sure, in a certain sense, the
    forfeiture of an issue for appeal is relevant to analyzing the
    prejudice of trial counsel’s failure to object because we
    assume that if trial counsel had objected and the trial court
    erroneously overruled the objection, the error would have
    been corrected on appeal. But that is simply to say that when
    assessing whether a defendant was prejudiced by trial
    counsel’s failure to object, we assume axiomatically that the
    objection, if raised, would have been correctly ruled upon.
    This is apparently what the Burdge panel meant when it
    concluded that “either the sentencing judge would have
    agreed with the objection, or the issue would have been
    preserved for appeal.” Id. This also helps clarify why the
    Second and Third Circuits discussed how an unraised
    6
    Moreover, as a memorandum disposition, Burdge is “at best,
    persuasive authority.” Hines v. Youseff, 
    914 F.3d 1218
    , 1230 (9th Cir.
    2019). And even assuming the panel in Burdge implicitly endorsed
    Dickinson’s position, it did so in passing, without any analysis that could
    persuasively support Dickinson’s argument.
    26                  DICKINSON V. SHINN
    objection might have fared on appeal, even though a trial
    court would have initially ruled on it. See Vanterpool,
    767 F.3d at 168 (“[H]ad Vanterpool’s attorney raised the
    issue to the trial court, Section 706 would likely have been
    found unconstitutional. By virtue of his trial counsel’s
    failure to preserve a viable First Amendment challenge,
    Vanterpool has satisfied the second prong of the Strickland
    test.” (emphasis added)); Parker, 666 F.3d at 834 (“Parker
    must show that, but for his counsel’s failure to preserve his
    sufficiency claim, there is a reasonable probability that the
    claim would have been considered on appeal and, as a result,
    his conviction would have been reversed.” (emphasis
    added)). But these cases do not support the argument that
    the loss of an appellate standard of review can itself
    constitute prejudice under Strickland.
    *    *   *
    Given the clear weight of authority against Dickinson’s
    argument, and considering that no court has adopted it, we
    find his prejudice-on-appeal theory unpersuasive. We hold
    that Dickinson cannot satisfy Strickland’s prejudice
    requirement for an IATC claim for failure to object to a jury
    instruction based on the consequent loss of a more favorable
    standard of appellate review.
    B
    We next consider Dickinson’s argument that his IATC
    claim is substantial because his trial counsel’s failure to
    object to the erroneous instruction prejudiced him at trial.
    Specifically, Dickinson asserts that “at least one juror could
    have relied on the invalid portion of the instruction and
    convicted him of attempted second-degree murder based on
    a finding that his intent was only to injure, and not to kill”
    the victim. We find this argument unpersuasive.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                            27
    As an initial matter, unlike Dickinson’s prejudice-on-
    appeal theory that we rejected in the preceding section, and
    which would have implicated Arizona state courts’ harmless
    error standard, this theory of prejudice turns directly on
    Strickland’s standard. See Musladin v. Lamarque, 
    555 F.3d 830
    , 834 (9th Cir. 2009). To establish prejudice under
    Strickland, Dickinson must show “a reasonable probability
    that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    . Although Dickinson correctly observes that
    counsel’s error need not be “outcome-determinative” to
    constitute ineffective assistance, 
    id. at 697
    , “[t]he likelihood
    of a different result must be substantial, not just
    conceivable,” to satisfy Strickland’s prejudice prong,
    Harrington, 
    562 U.S. at 112
     (citation omitted). Thus, when
    the Supreme Court declined to adopt a more stringent
    “outcome-determinative test” for prejudice in Strickland, it
    explained that the difference between this standard and the
    “substantial likelihood” test is so small that it “should alter
    the merit of an ineffectiveness claim only in the rarest case.”
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 697
    . 7
    When Dickinson challenged the erroneous jury
    instruction on direct appeal, the Arizona Court of Appeals
    held that he failed to “affirmatively prove prejudice” by
    “show[ing] that a reasonable, properly instructed jury could
    have reached a different result,” as Arizona law required for
    him to prevail on a forfeited jury instruction challenge.
    Dickinson, 314 P.3d at 1286 (internal quotation marks and
    7
    Dickinson argues that the district court erred by requiring him to
    show “that the outcome of his trial would have been different with a
    properly instructed jury,” “not that it could have been different.” As we
    explain below, the district court applied the proper test for Strickland
    prejudice.
    28                      DICKINSON V. SHINN
    citations omitted). The Arizona Court of Appeals found that
    at trial, “[t]he State’s theory was that Dickinson intended to
    kill the victim, not that he intended to cause physical injury
    or knew that his conduct would cause serious physical
    injury.” Id. It also found that Dickinson never asserted a
    lack-of-intent defense, but instead solely asserted mistaken
    identity. Id. Finally, it found that the jury heard significant
    evidence that Dickinson intended to kill the victim, and no
    firsthand evidence that Dickinson intended only to cause
    serious injury. Id. at 1286–87. The court found nothing to
    “suggest[] that Dickinson intended to cause serious injury to
    the victim (as opposed to kill him), which is the fundamental
    error in the jury instructions.” Id. at 1288.
    We must accept the Arizona Court of Appeals’ factual
    findings about Dickinson’s trial unless rebutted by clear and
    convincing evidence.         See 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (e)(1);
    Runningeagle v. Ryan, 
    686 F.3d 758
    , 763 n.1 (9th Cir.
    2012). 8 The record amply supports the Arizona Court of
    Appeals’ characterization of the trial, and considering these
    facts, Dickinson cannot demonstrate a reasonable
    probability that the trial would have had a different outcome
    without the erroneous jury instruction. The jury heard
    overwhelming evidence that Dickinson intended to kill the
    victim, it heard only a few passing comments that it could
    8
    The Arizona Court of Appeals’ legal conclusion regarding
    prejudice was based on state law’s “fundamental error” standard, not
    Strickland’s standard for prejudice. No state court ruled on the merits of
    Dickinson’s IATC claim, and thus we do not apply AEDPA deference to
    any legal conclusion of the state courts regarding prejudice.
    Nevertheless, we owe deference to the state court’s factual findings. See
    Kirkpatrick v. Chappell, 
    950 F.3d 1118
    , 1131 (9th Cir. 2020), cert.
    denied, 
    141 S. Ct. 561
     (2020) (“Unlike § 2254(d), § 2254(e)(1)’s
    application is not limited to claims adjudicated on the merits. Rather, it
    appears to apply to all factual determinations made by state courts.”).
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                              29
    have conceivably construed as evidence that Dickinson did
    not intend to kill the victim, and neither the State nor defense
    counsel ever suggested that Dickinson intended only to
    cause serious physical injury.
    First, overwhelming evidence supported the conclusion
    that Dickinson intended to kill the victim. Both the victim
    and Altizer described at length how Dickinson had
    brandished an ax and told the victim that he was “going to
    kill [him]” minutes before the attack. Describing the attack,
    the victim stated, “[T]he first time he clipped me . . . he had
    that look in his face like, you know, he was going to kill me,
    man, he was going to kill me . . . .” Todd testified that when
    Dickinson “proceeded to run [the victim] down on his
    bicycle,” the victim “was drug [sic] underneath the truck.”
    The jury also heard testimony from multiple witnesses that
    after the initial impact between the truck and the victim’s
    bicycle, Dickinson backed up, revved his engine, and
    accelerated toward the victim.
    Second, only a handful of passing remarks by witnesses
    at trial could have supported the theory that Dickinson had
    any intent other than to kill. Altizer speculated that when
    Dickinson said, “I’m going to run him over,” he meant it
    “jokingly.” On the occasions when Dickinson pulled a knife
    and an ax on the victim, he ultimately did not use those
    weapons. And Altizer’s testimony that after the attack
    Dickinson tossed him the keys and said “[t]hat he done it”
    could suggest that Dickinson only intended to injure the
    victim, assuming that Dickinson realized at the time that
    what “he [had] done” was merely injure, not kill, the victim. 9
    9
    Dickinson also cites several statements from the trial judge outside
    the presence of the jury to argue that “the trial judge doubted the strength
    30                      DICKINSON V. SHINN
    Significantly, however, even if the defense could have
    marshalled this scant evidence into an argument that
    Dickinson lacked the intent to kill, it never did so. Defense
    counsel never questioned a single witness about whether
    Dickinson intended to kill the victim, nor did he present any
    evidence that Dickinson intended to do something other than
    kill him, such as maim, injure, or scare him. In the same
    vein, defense counsel’s opening and closing arguments
    never even hinted at the possibility that Dickinson intended
    only to seriously injure the victim. Instead, they focused
    almost exclusively on whether the Dickinson was in fact the
    driver and whether Dickinson’s alibi was valid. As defense
    counsel characterized his closing argument to the jury:
    [I]f my closing had a title, I suppose it would
    be the mysterious injury of [the victim].
    While there’s no doubt that [the victim]
    suffered some kind of injury of some type
    that day, he went to the hospital, what is in
    doubt and what the question is, the who, the
    what, the when, the where, and the how and
    the why; because it is those questions that
    creates [sic] uncertainty, and it’s that
    uncertainty that lends the mysteriousness to
    the title of my closing.
    of the evidence that Dickinson intended to either seriously injure or kill
    [the victim].” For example, the trial judge stated during sentencing, “I
    have seen cases in which I thought serious physical injures [sic] were a
    whole lot worse than those that were suffered by [the victim], although I
    would certainly not volunteer to get run over by a vehicle in the manner
    that he did.” But these statements are irrelevant to the question before
    us: whether there is “a reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                            31
    In contrast, the State focused almost exclusively on the
    theory that Dickinson intended to kill the victim. The State’s
    first words to the jury during its opening statement were,
    “Good afternoon. The evidence in this case will show you
    that the defendant, Zane Dickinson, tried to kill [the
    victim].” It emphasized this theme throughout the trial. The
    only statement during opening or closing arguments that
    might have led the jury to consider whether Dickinson
    intended to cause serious physical injury was an offhand
    remark by the State, near the beginning of its closing
    argument, that Dickinson “knew that his conduct would
    result in death or serious physical injury.” 10 Apart from this
    paraphrase of the erroneous jury instruction, the State
    exclusively argued that the evidence showed Dickinson
    intended to kill the victim. It repeatedly emphasized that
    because an automobile can be a deadly weapon, running
    somebody over suggests an intent to kill:
    •    “This could have been much worse; [the
    victim’s] injuries could have been much
    worse. You get spit through underneath a
    truck, could have been much worse. But he
    was trying to kill him.”
    •    “[Y]ou guys, your common experience and
    life experience, you know, that people get
    killed when they get ran [sic] over. Backing
    10
    The State also made a single brief reference in its opening
    statement to a recorded jail call in which Dickinson’s mother apparently
    stated that a friend heard Dickinson “was just trying to scare [the
    victim].” However, the record does not include a transcript of this call,
    and Dickinson makes no reference to it in his briefing.
    32                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    out, someone gets backed over, people get
    killed at low speeds.”
    •   “The context is clear. The defendant was
    there. He ran the victim over. And he should
    have stopped. But again, he was trying to kill
    him, so why would he stop?”
    •   “[W]hen you’re trying to kill somebody and
    run them over, I mean it’s—what do you
    expect?”
    The State also repeatedly emphasized Dickinson’s
    threats to kill the victim:
    •   “Now, what the evidence will show you is
    that [Dickinson] was trying to kill [the
    victim]. Told him he was going to kill him
    up here, with the ax; then he went looking for
    him in his truck, and he didn’t just try once,
    took him to the second time before he finally
    got him.”
    •   “[I]n that dispute, the defendant grabbed an
    ax out of the truck and told the victim that he
    was going to fucking kill him.”
    •   “Remember he said he was going to fucking
    kill him . . . .”
    Dickinson attempts to discount these statements by
    asserting that “arguments of counsel cannot substitute for
    instructions by the court,” Taylor v. Kentucky, 
    436 U.S. 478
    ,
    488–89 (1978). To be sure, attorneys’ remarks during
    opening and closing argument do not absolve a trial court of
    its duty to properly instruct the jury. Thus, in Taylor, a direct
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                     33
    proceeding in which the defendant argued that his trial was
    fundamentally unfair because the court refused to instruct
    the jury on the presumption of innocence, the Supreme Court
    rejected the state’s argument that “no additional instructions
    were required, because defense counsel argued the
    presumption of innocence in both his opening and closing
    statements.” 
    Id. at 488
    .
    But Taylor addressed only whether “the trial court’s
    refusal to give petitioner’s requested instruction on the
    presumption of innocence resulted in a violation of his right
    to a fair trial as guaranteed by the Due Process Clause of the
    Fourteenth Amendment,” 
    id. at 490
    , not whether there is a
    reasonable probability that the jury would have returned a
    different verdict but for counsel’s failure to object to an
    instruction on the definition of a crime, see Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    . We routinely consider the trial record in its
    entirety to determine whether an attorney’s deficient
    performance prejudiced a defendant, and Dickinson cites no
    authority holding that it is improper to do so. See, e.g.,
    Hardy v. Chappell, 
    849 F.3d 803
    , 821 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (holding that “[u]nder no reasonable reading of the record
    could it be concluded the jury actually found [petitioner]
    guilty under an aid-or-abet theory” despite the inclusion of
    an aid-and-abet instruction, in part because “[w]hen the
    prosecutor addressed the aid-and-abet theory in his closing
    argument, he described only [other defendants’]
    involvement—not [petitioner’s]”); Zapata v. Vasquez,
    
    788 F.3d 1106
    , 1117 (9th Cir. 2015) (“Here, the totality of
    the circumstances shows the California Court of Appeal’s
    prejudice determination was unreasonable.”).
    In sum, the jury heard overwhelming evidence that
    Dickinson intended to kill the victim, the State argued
    exclusively (with the exception of reciting the erroneous jury
    34                     DICKINSON V. SHINN
    instruction once at the beginning of its closing argument)
    that Dickinson intended to kill the victim, and Dickinson’s
    attorney gave the jury no reason to consider the possibility
    that he intended only to cause serious physical injury. 11 This
    does not merely show, as Dickinson argues, that the jury
    “could have convicted [him] based on the valid theory” of
    intent to kill, Riley v. McDaniel, 
    786 F.3d 719
    , 726 (9th Cir.
    2015). Rather, it shows that “we can be reasonably certain
    . . . that the jury did convict [him] based on” that theory. 
    Id.
    (alterations in original). If a juror had voted to convict based
    on the invalid “serious physical injury” theory, he would
    have had to entirely disregard Dickinson’s actual defense,
    disbelieve the State’s strong argument that Dickinson
    intended to kill, and form his own idiosyncratic theory of the
    case, never actually discussed at trial, by picking a handful
    of stray remarks out of two days of witness testimony. While
    perhaps conceivable, this scenario is not reasonably
    probable. See Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    Dickinson relies on a single Fifth Circuit decision, Gray
    v. Lynn, 
    6 F.3d 265
     (5th Cir. 1993), to argue that
    notwithstanding the trial record, he was prejudiced by
    counsel’s failure to object to the erroneous jury instruction.
    We are not persuaded that we should apply Gray to conclude
    that Dickinson was prejudiced at trial.
    In Gray, a jury found the defendant guilty of first-degree
    murder after hearing evidence that he had appeared at a
    couple’s door holding a gun, told the man who answered the
    door that he was going to “blow [his] brains out,” and hit him
    11
    In addition, the trial judge gave the jurors the opportunity to
    submit questions to the witnesses during trial, and nothing in the record
    suggests that any of the jurors submitted a question to probe whether
    Dickinson intended to kill or merely to inflict serious physical injury.
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                       35
    on the side of the head with the gun. 
    Id. at 267
    . He then
    entered their bedroom, struck the woman and the man with
    his gun, and got into a struggle with the man during which
    he fired three shots at the man at close range, all of which
    missed. 
    Id.
     The jury was erroneously instructed that “[a]n
    essential element of the offense of attempted first degree
    murder is specific criminal intent to kill or inflict great
    bodily harm.” 
    Id. at 269
     (alteration in original). Gray’s
    counsel failed to object to this instruction, 
    id.,
     and on federal
    habeas review, the Fifth Circuit concluded that counsel’s
    failure constituted ineffective assistance, 
    id.
     at 271–72.
    Assessing Strickland’s prejudice prong, the Fifth Circuit
    framed its inquiry as “whether there is a reasonable
    probability that the jury would have had a reasonable doubt
    respecting Gray’s guilt if the phrase ‘or inflict great bodily
    harm’ had not been included in the charge.” 
    Id.
     at 269–70.
    The court concluded that there was prejudice, noting that
    after threatening to “blow” the victim’s “brains out,” Gray
    proceeded to strike him on the head with the gun “instead of
    immediately firing the gun in order to carry out that threat.”
    
    Id. at 270
    . The court reasoned:
    The jury plausibly could have interpreted this
    evidence in at least two ways: (1) Gray
    intended to kill James by shooting him with
    the gun, but did not succeed; or (2) Gray
    intended to inflict great bodily harm on
    James by striking him and shooting him with
    the gun. Considering the circumstances,
    including the fact that Gray did not take
    advantage of several golden opportunities to
    kill James if he had intended to do so, we
    think there is at least a reasonable probability
    that the jury could have had a reasonable
    36                   DICKINSON V. SHINN
    doubt about Gray’s intent to kill, and that it
    convicted him instead on the basis of the
    erroneous instruction, because it found that
    he had the intent to inflict great bodily harm.
    
    Id.
    As an initial matter, contrary to Dickinson’s assertion,
    Gray is not “squarely on point.” In Gray, although the
    defendant knew both the victims and had previously lived
    with one of them, 
    id.
     at 267 & nn. 3, 4, there is no indication
    that the defendant had previously threatened to kill either of
    the victims or pulled a deadly weapon on them, as Dickinson
    did. Furthermore, the male victim in Gray testified that “he
    believed that, at that close range, Gray was capable of
    carrying out the threat” to “blow [his] brains out,” even
    though he did not carry it out. 
    Id. at 267
    . There was no
    comparable testimony at Dickinson’s trial that could have
    led the jury to infer that Dickinson was fully capable of
    carrying out his threat to kill, but instead chose to maneuver
    his truck just so as to maim the victim.
    Dickinson argues that, like the defendant in Gray, he
    “did not take advantage of several golden opportunities to
    kill” the victim—apparently referring to the instances when
    he pulled a knife and an ax on the victim—and therefore, the
    jury could have reasonably doubted his intent to kill. See 
    id. at 270
    . He also observes that because he “only hit the back
    of [the victim’s] bike initially,” and did not hit the victim a
    second time until the victim tried to turn off the road, the jury
    could have found that he did not intend to kill the victim with
    his truck. While this is perhaps “conceivable,” the
    possibility that an attempted murder could have been carried
    out more efficiently and brutally does not cast serious doubt
    on the attacker’s intent. See Hardy, 849 F.3d at 819 (“A
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                       37
    reasonable probability . . . must be substantial, not just
    conceivable.”).
    Indeed, the facts here are more closely analogous to a
    subsequent Fifth Circuit case, Harris v. Warden, Louisiana
    State Penitentiary, 
    152 F.3d 430
     (5th Cir. 1998), in which
    the defendant repeatedly stabbed a victim, ordered her into
    the trunk of his car, and threatened to “finish [her] off,” 
    id. at 432
    . She was eventually rescued and “transported to the
    hospital with several life-threatening wounds,” but she
    survived after receiving intensive medical care. 
    Id. at 433
    .
    A jury convicted the defendant of attempted second-degree
    murder after receiving an instruction similarly erroneous to
    the one in Gray, and the defendant sought federal habeas
    relief based on his attorney’s failure to object to the
    instruction. 
    Id.
     at 433–34.
    The Fifth Circuit distinguished Gray and held that the
    erroneous instruction did not prejudice the defendant,
    reasoning that while the defendant in Gray “failed to take
    advantage of . . . ‘golden opportunities’” to kill the victim
    “and did not pursue the victim when he ran off,” this
    defendant did take advantage of the opportunity to kill the
    victim and simply failed: he “inflicted life-threatening stab
    wounds . . . and basically left her for dead in the trunk of his
    car. Not only is [his] leaving [the victim] for dead probative
    of an intent to kill, but [his] deliberate use of a deadly
    weapon in a manner likely to cause death further supports
    the inference that he intended to kill [her].” 
    Id. at 439
    .
    While Dickinson did not injure his victim as severely as the
    defendant in Harris injured his victim, his case is more akin
    to Harris than it is to Gray because Dickinson acted on his
    threat—albeit unsuccessfully—by “deliberate[ly] us[ing]
    . . . a deadly weapon in a manner likely to cause death” and
    then leaving his injured victim. 
    Id.
    38                      DICKINSON V. SHINN
    More fundamentally, however, we find Gray
    unpersuasive because it appears to have applied the wrong
    rule in its Strickland prejudice analysis. Although the Fifth
    Circuit initially described its prejudice inquiry as turning on
    “whether there is a reasonable probability that the jury would
    have had a reasonable doubt respecting Gray’s guilt if the
    phrase ‘or inflict great bodily harm’ had not been included
    in the charge,” Gray, 
    6 F.3d at
    269–70, it transitioned from
    this correct formulation of the Strickland standard to a
    different and lower standard, unsupported by Strickland:
    whether the jury “plausibly could have interpreted” the
    evidence to support Gray’s innocence absent the erroneous
    instruction, 
    id. at 270
    ; see also 
    id. at 271
     (“Under the court’s
    instructions, the jury could have convicted Gray for
    attempted first degree murder on the basis of a finding that
    he had the intent to inflict great bodily harm, even if it had a
    reasonable doubt that he had the specific intent to kill
    James.” (emphasis added)).
    This circuit and others have explicitly rejected this
    approach of finding prejudice simply because a jury
    conceivably could have convicted based on an improper
    instruction. See, e.g., Hardy, 849 F.3d at 819 (“A reasonable
    probability . . . must be substantial, not just conceivable.”
    (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    693–94)); Benge v. Johnson,
    
    474 F.3d 236
    , 249 (6th Cir. 2007) (“What Benge could have
    done, however, is irrelevant at this stage in the proceedings.
    We must be able to say that a reasonable probability exists
    that a properly instructed jury would have concluded that
    Benge had shown [an affirmative defense] by the
    preponderance of the evidence.”). 12
    12
    Dickinson observes that this circuit cited Gray’s prejudice
    analysis favorably in United States v. Span, 
    75 F.3d 1383
     (9th Cir. 1996),
    DICKINSON V. SHINN                              39
    The record leaves no room for “a reasonable probability
    that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    . Therefore, we hold that Dickinson has failed to
    demonstrate a substantial IATC claim, and accordingly, his
    procedural default of that claim is not excused under
    Martinez.
    V
    We AFFIRM the district court’s denial of Dickinson’s
    petition for a writ of habeas corpus.
    but it did so only in passing for the proposition that prejudice can occur
    “even though both the prosecutor and defense counsel argued the correct
    law to the jury,” id. at 1390. In Span, the trial court failed to give an
    excessive force instruction and instead gave another instruction
    specifically precluding an excessive force defense in a trial for assaulting
    federal officers. Based on the trial testimony of two witnesses, we
    concluded it was “highly likely that a properly instructed jury would
    have found that the Spans were not the first aggressors, but only
    defending themselves against an excessive and outrageous use of force
    by the marshals.” Id.