George Kayer v. Charles L. Ryan , 923 F.3d 692 ( 2019 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    GEORGE RUSSELL KAYER,                   No. 09-99027
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                     2:07-cv-02120-
    DGC
    CHARLES L. RYAN, Warden, Director
    of the Arizona Department of
    Corrections,                              OPINION
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    David G. Campbell, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted March 8, 2018
    Pasadena, California
    Filed May 13, 2019
    Before: William A. Fletcher, John B. Owens,
    and Michelle T. Friedland, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge W. Fletcher;
    Partial Concurrence and Partial Dissent by Judge Owens
    2                         KAYER V. RYAN
    SUMMARY*
    Habeas Corpus / Death Penalty
    The panel reversed in part and affirmed in part the district
    court’s judgment denying Arizona state prisoner George
    Russell Kayer’s habeas corpus petition, and remanded with
    directions to grant the writ with respect to Kayer’s death
    sentence.
    The panel held that the Arizona Supreme Court erred in
    rejecting Kayer’s proffered mental-impairment mitigation
    evidence on the ground that the alleged impairment did not
    have a causal nexus to the commission of the crime. The
    panel held that this erroneous ruling, which was an alternative
    holding, was harmless because the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    principal holding – that Kayer presented so little evidence of
    mental impairment that he failed to establish even the
    existence of any such impairment – was a reasonable
    determination of the facts.
    The panel reversed the district court’s denial of relief on
    Kayer’s claim that he was denied his Sixth Amendment right
    to effective assistance of counsel due to his attorneys’
    inadequate mitigation investigation in preparation for his
    penalty phase hearing. The panel held that in failing to begin
    penalty-phase investigation promptly after they were
    appointed, Kayer’s attorneys’ representation fell below an
    objective standard of reasonableness; and that the conclusion
    of the state post-conviction-relief (PCR) court that Kayer’s
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    KAYER V. RYAN                         3
    attorneys provided constitutionally adequate performance was
    contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court. The panel concluded that but for counsel’s
    deficient performance, there is a reasonable probability
    Kayer’s sentence would have been less than death, and that
    the state PCR court was unreasonable in concluding
    otherwise.
    The panel did not need to reach the question whether the
    sentencing court acted properly in denying a continuance, and
    agreed with the district court that none of the procedurally-
    defaulted claims Kayer sought to revive was substantial in the
    sense necessary to support a finding of cause and prejudice
    under Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
     (2012). The panel
    declined to certify two additional claims.
    Concurring in part and dissenting in part, Judge Owens
    disagreed that the death sentence must be reversed because he
    could not say that the Arizona PCR court acted unreasonably
    regarding prejudice in light of the aggravating and mitigating
    circumstances in this case.
    COUNSEL
    Jennifer Y. Garcia (argued) and Emma L. Smith, Assistant
    Federal Public Defenders; Jon M. Sands, Federal Public
    Defender; Office of the Federal Public Defender, Phoenix,
    Arizona; for Petitioner-Appellant.
    John Pressley Todd (argued), Special Assistant Attorney
    General; Jacinda A. Lanum, Assistant Attorney General;
    Lacey Stover Gard, Chief Counsel; Dominic Draye, Solicitor
    4                     KAYER V. RYAN
    General; Mark Brnovich, Attorney General; Office of the
    Attorney General, Phoenix, Arizona; for Respondent-
    Appellee.
    OPINION
    W. FLETCHER, Circuit Judge:
    George Russell Kayer was convicted of little evidence to
    support the argument. The judge held that Kayer had not
    established any mental impairment due to mental illness or
    substance abuse. He sentenced Kayer to death.
    On direct appeal, the Arizona Supreme Court performed
    an independent review of Kayer’s death sentence, as required
    under Arizona law. The Court found two statutory
    aggravating circumstances—a previous conviction of a
    “serious offense” in 1981, and “pecuniary gain” as a
    motivation for the murder. State v. Kayer, 
    984 P.2d 31
    ,
    41–42 (Ariz. 1999). The Court found one non-statutory
    mitigating circumstance—Kayer’s importance in the life of
    his son. 
    Id. at 42
    . After weighing the two aggravating
    circumstances against the one mitigating circumstance, the
    Arizona Supreme Court affirmed Kayer’s death sentence.
    As he had in the trial court, Kayer argued in the Arizona
    Supreme Court for a mitigating circumstance based on mental
    impairment due to mental illness and/or substance abuse. The
    Court refused to find a mitigating circumstance based on
    mental impairment, as either a statutory or non-statutory
    mitigator. First, the Court refused to find that such
    impairment existed at all. In the view of the Court, the
    existence of such impairment was merely speculative.
    KAYER V. RYAN                          5
    Second, in the alternative, the Court held that even if there
    first degree murder and sentenced to death in Arizona
    Superior Court in 1997. During a brief penalty-phase
    hearing, Kayer’s counsel argued as a mitigating circumstance
    that Kayer suffered from mental illness and was a substance
    abuser, but provided very had been non-speculative evidence
    of the existence of such impairment, Kayer had failed to
    establish a “causal nexus” between the alleged impairment
    and the murder.
    In a post-conviction relief (“PCR”) proceeding in Arizona
    Superior Court, Kayer argued that his trial counsel had
    provided ineffective assistance at the penalty phase. Kayer
    presented evidence in the PCR court that his trial counsel had
    performed little investigation of mitigating circumstances.
    He also presented extensive evidence of mental impairment
    due to mental illness and substance abuse which, he
    contended, competent counsel would have discovered and
    presented to the sentencing court. The PCR court denied
    relief, holding that Kayer’s counsel had not been ineffective,
    and that, in any event, any deficiencies in his counsel’s
    performance did not prejudice Kayer. The Arizona Supreme
    Court declined review without comment.
    Kayer then sought federal habeas corpus. The district
    court denied relief. On appeal to us, Kayer makes two claims
    with which we are centrally concerned. First, Kayer claims
    that the Arizona Supreme Court on direct appeal violated his
    Eighth Amendment right to be free of cruel and unusual
    punishment by applying its unconstitutional “causal nexus”
    test to his proffered mitigating evidence of mental illness and
    substance abuse. See Eddings v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
    (1982); McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
     (9th Cir. 2015) (en
    banc). Second, Kayer claims that the Arizona Superior Court
    6                     KAYER V. RYAN
    on post-conviction review erred in holding that his Sixth
    Amendment right to counsel was not violated by his
    counsel’s deficient performance at the penalty phase. See
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984).
    For the reasons that follow, we decline to grant relief on
    Kayer’s Eddings causal-nexus claim but grant relief on his
    Strickland ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claim. We
    reverse the judgment of the district court and remand with
    directions to grant the writ with respect to Kayer’s sentence.
    I. Factual and Procedural History
    A. Factual History
    Lisa Kester approached a security guard at a Las Vegas
    hotel on December 12, 1994, to report that her boyfriend,
    George Russell Kayer, had killed Delbert Haas in Yavapai
    County, Arizona, ten days earlier. State v. Kayer, 
    984 P.2d 31
    , 35 (Ariz. 1999). Kester was arrested and interrogated.
    The following account of the events leading up to and
    culminating in Haas’s murder is largely based on Kester’s
    narrative at trial, as summarized by the Arizona Supreme
    Court on direct appeal.
    On November 30, 1994, Kayer, Kester, and Haas traveled
    in Haas’s van from Arizona to Nevada on a gambling trip.
    The three of them spent their first night sharing a room at a
    hotel in Laughlin, Nevada. Kayer told Haas that night that he
    had “won big” during the day using a special gambling
    system. Kayer knew that Haas had recently received money
    from an insurance settlement. He convinced Haas to lend
    him about $100.
    KAYER V. RYAN                         7
    The next day, Kayer lost all the money Haas had lent him.
    Kayer lied to Haas, telling him that he had again “won big,”
    
    id. at 36
    , but that someone had stolen his money. Kester
    asked Kayer what he planned to do now that he was out of
    cash. Kester testified that Kayer replied that he would rob
    Haas. Kester pointed out that Haas would easily identify
    Kayer as the thief. According to Kester, Kayer responded, “I
    guess I’ll just have to kill him.” 
    Id.
    On December 2, Kayer, Kester, and Haas drove back to
    Arizona. Kester recounted in a pretrial interview that the
    three of them consumed a case of beer during the several-
    hour drive. Haas argued with Kayer about how Kayer would
    repay him. During a stop to buy snacks and use the
    bathroom, Kayer pulled a gun from beneath a seat in the van
    and put it in his pants. He asked Kester if she was “going to
    be all right with this.” 
    Id.
     Kester responded that she wanted
    Kayer to warn her before he pulled the trigger.
    Kayer, who was driving, left the main highway,
    purporting to take a shortcut. He stopped the van by the side
    of a back road. Haas got out of the van and walked toward
    the back to urinate. Kester started to get out of the van, but
    Kayer stopped her, motioning to her with the gun. Through
    the back window of the van, Kester saw Kayer walk up
    behind Haas and shoot him in the head while he was
    urinating.
    Kayer dragged Haas’s body into the bushes; took Haas’s
    wallet, watch and jewelry; got back in the van; and drove
    away with Kester. Kayer realized that he had forgotten to get
    Haas’s house keys and drove back to where they had left his
    body. Kayer got out of the van to retrieve the keys, but
    returned and asked for the gun, saying that Haas did not
    8                     KAYER V. RYAN
    appear to be dead. Kayer went back to Haas’s body, and
    Kester heard a second shot.
    Kayer and Kester drove to Haas’s home in Arizona and
    stole several items to pawn and sell at flea markets. They
    spent the next week pawning and selling the stolen property
    and gambling with the proceeds. Ten days after the murder,
    Kester approached a security guard in Las Vegas and reported
    that Kayer had killed Haas. She was taken into custody.
    Kayer was taken into custody soon afterwards.
    Kayer and Kester were indicted for first degree murder on
    December 29, 1994. The State initially announced that it
    would seek the death penalty against both of them. In
    September 1995, Kester entered into a plea agreement under
    which the State agreed not to seek the death penalty and,
    further, to limit dramatically her potential sentence. Under
    the agreement, Kester would receive, at worst, a six-and-a-
    half-year prison sentence. At best, she would be sentenced to
    probation. In exchange, Kester agreed to testify truthfully at
    Kayer’s trial, consistent with her previous statement to the
    police. Kester testified as promised. After Kayer was
    convicted, Kester was sentenced to three years probation.
    B. Procedural History
    1. Trial, Conviction, and Sentencing
    The jury convicted Kayer of first degree murder on
    March 26, 1997. Kayer’s “aggravation/mitigation hearing”
    took place on July 8, 1997. His attorneys put on five
    witnesses. Their testimony was finished before noon.
    KAYER V. RYAN                          9
    First, Jerry Stoller, a “detention officer” who worked in
    the law library of the county jail, testified that Kayer was
    always “very busy” when at the library, always taking “the
    full three hours.” When asked if Kayer’s “conduct has
    always been good,” Stoller responded, “In my presence, yes.”
    Second, Cherie Rottau, Kayer’s seventy-six-year-old
    mother, testified that Kayer had been generally well behaved
    during high school. She testified that Kayer’s father had died
    when he was in kindergarten and that she had not remarried
    until after Kayer had graduated from high school. She
    recounted that when Kayer was a teenager, he had shot two
    jackrabbits at her sister’s house in the country. Afterwards,
    “He said, ‘You know, that’s not right to go out there and kill
    things.’ He said, ‘I’ll never kill another thing as long as I
    live.’ And to my knowledge, he hasn’t.” She testified that
    she did not have “any concerns about him until he was older,”
    when he was nineteen and had already graduated from high
    school. “I noticed a change in him. . . . [H]e would work
    24 hours and then when he’d get to sleep he’d sleep a long
    time, . . . [W]hen he was happy he was real happy.” “[W]hen
    he gets depressed, he just gets down at the bottom of the well,
    and when he’s happy, . . . there’s nothing he can’t do when
    he’s happy. And he does accomplish a lot.” She testified that
    Kayer’s fourteen-year-old son had been “dropped” in the
    delivery room, and that he had “difficulties with school and
    certain other developmental things.” She testified that Kayer
    and his son were “real close” and that Kayer had been “active
    in trying to get . . . educational assistance” for his son.
    Third, Kayer’s older half-sister, Jean Hopson, testified
    that Kayer’s father (her stepfather) had drinking and
    gambling problems, and that Kayer had the same problems,
    beginning in his early twenties. She testified, “[H]e was a
    10                    KAYER V. RYAN
    happy kid as a school kid, and I think his problems started
    when he was in the service, and shortly afterwards, getting
    married.” She testified, further, that Kayer had “[h]ighs and
    lows.” “We did have a family discussion one time, and he
    . . . was diagnosed, I guess, as a bipolar manic-depressive, or
    something like that.” “I believe [he was diagnosed] at the VA
    hospital. At one point, he checked himself in.” “He is
    supposed to be on lithium now, but he read up on the side
    effects of lithium, how it can affect your liver and different
    body organs, and he will not take it.” “I don’t really totally
    understand the bipolar manic-depressive. I understand it
    enough to know that there are ups and downs[.]”
    Fourth, Mary Durand, who had just been hired as a
    mitigation specialist for Kayer, testified:
    In a normal mitigation case you would spend
    probably 100 hours at a minimum with the
    client, developing a rapport, learning
    information, taking a social history, gaining
    his confidence or her confidence so that you
    can get them to share with you things that are
    sometimes extraordinarily painful, sometimes
    things they don’t want to relive, sometimes
    things they have buried and merely don’t
    remember until other people start giving
    anecdotal evidence.
    Durand testified that she had been able to interview Kayer
    only twice, for a total of six or seven hours.
    Durand testified that although she had been able to
    interview some of Kayer’s family members, the only
    documentary evidence she had been able to obtain was
    KAYER V. RYAN                        11
    Kayer’s “criminal court records from his prior involvements
    with the law.” She had not been able “to get any of the
    psychiatric records from any of his stays at psychiatric
    hospitals around the country.” She “didn’t get any of his
    school records, medical records, any of his military records.”
    Based on the information she was able to obtain, Durand
    testified that there was a “family history on both sides of
    alcoholism”; that there was a “history of mental illness”; and
    that Kayer was slow to develop as a child. She testified that
    Kayer “was allegedly diagnosed as a manic-depressive and
    was having such a manic state and then such a severely
    depressive state while he was in the military that he was
    allowed to get out of his military enlistment honorably, but
    under medical conditions[.]”
    When asked whether she had sufficient information “to
    give any sort of reliable opinions to the judge as far as
    mitigating elements,” Durand responded:
    I would certainly not be qualified to give a
    medical opinion about a diagnosis of a
    psychiatric condition, and I do not feel
    comfortable giving an opinion about the
    length, breadth and depth of any other issue I
    have spoken to, because I have not been able
    to do my investigation. I do believe they
    exist. I do not know to what degree, for what
    length, and what duration, and how serious.
    (Emphasis added.)
    After Durand finished her testimony, the judge noted that
    sentencing was scheduled for July 15, a week later. He asked
    Kayer whether he wished more time for further investigation:
    12                    KAYER V. RYAN
    Do you want more time? By asking you the
    question, I’m basically saying if you tell me
    right now that you’ve considered it, and you
    want more time, I’m prepared to give you
    more time. But I think you are an intelligent
    individual. You know what she’s just testified
    to. . . . You got the information, you got the
    intelligence, you’ve talked to counsel, you’ve
    heard Ms. Durand. Your call.
    Kayer replied that he did not want more time.
    Finally, Kayer’s son testified. His testimony took only
    eleven lines of transcript.
    At sentencing on July 15, the trial judge held that
    the state had established two statutory aggravating
    circumstances—that Kayer had been previously convicted of
    a “serious offense” and that the murder was committed for
    “pecuniary gain.” However, the judge refused to find as an
    additional aggravating circumstance that the murder was
    committed in “an especially heinous, cruel or depraved
    manner.” He explained:
    The pathologist was not able to testify
    anything . . . as to the suffering of [the] victim
    in this case, so that would be the necessary
    finding as far as cruelty. As to heinous and
    depraved, that deals with your thoughts and
    conduct surrounding the murder and the
    events afterward. As I read the case law and
    the description, I do not find that the evidence
    presented rises beyond a reasonable doubt as
    far as proving heinous and depraved . . . .
    KAYER V. RYAN                        13
    The trial judge found that Kayer had established only one
    mitigating circumstance—the non-statutory mitigator that
    Kayer had “become an important figure in the life of his son.”
    The judge held that he could not find mental impairment as
    a mitigating circumstance. He stated, “I must find it by a
    preponderance of the evidence. I simply cannot. It has not
    been presented in any way, shape or form that would rise to
    that level.” The judge concluded that Kayer’s relationship
    with his son did not outweigh his prior conviction and his
    pecuniary motive for killing Haas. He sentenced Kayer to
    death.
    2. Direct Appeal
    Kayer appealed to the Arizona Supreme Court. See 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-4031
     (1997); State v. Kayer, 
    984 P.2d 31
    (Ariz. 1999). That Court conducted an independent review of
    Kayer’s death sentence, in accordance with Arizona law.
    On direct review, the Arizona Supreme Court found the
    same two statutory aggravating circumstances that the trial
    court had found—prior conviction of a serious offense and
    commission of murder for pecuniary gain. It also found the
    same non-statutory mitigating circumstance as the trial
    court—Kayer’s “importance in the life” of his son.
    As he had to the trial court, Kayer argued to the Arizona
    Supreme Court that he had a mental impairment that qualified
    as either a statutory or a non-statutory mitigating
    circumstance.
    First, Kayer argued that his mental impairment qualified
    as a statutory mitigation circumstance under Arizona Revised
    Statutes § 3-703(G)(1) (as it was then numbered), which
    14                     KAYER V. RYAN
    required that the “defendant’s capacity to appreciate the
    wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his conduct to the
    requirements of [the] law [be] significantly impaired, but not
    so impaired as to constitute a defense to prosecution.” Kayer,
    
    984 P.2d at 45
    . Kayer argued that “his history of mental
    illness, including a history of suicide ideation, a history of
    alcoholism in his family, and his own polysubstance abuse,
    establishes the existence of this mitigating factor under the
    preponderance standard.” 
    Id.
     The Arizona Supreme Court
    disagreed. It held that Kayer had presented insufficient
    evidence to establish the existence of any mental impairment
    whatsoever. The Court wrote that Kayer “did not establish as
    threshold evidence the existence of any of these factors, let
    alone their influence on preventing him from conforming his
    conduct to the law or appreciating the wrongfulness of his
    conduct.” 
    Id.
     The Court also held, in the alternative, that
    Kayer had failed to establish a “causal nexus” between the
    alleged impairment and the murder.
    Second, Kayer argued that his mental impairment
    qualified as a non-statutory mitigation circumstance. The
    Court held, as it had with respect to statutory mitigation, that
    Kayer had failed to present sufficient evidence to establish
    the existence of any impairment. The Court discounted
    Durand’s tentative conclusions, writing that “Durand
    speculated that defendant suffered from mental difficulties.”
    
    Id. at 46
    . The Court concluded, “[T]he record shows that the
    existence of impairment, from any source, is at best
    speculative.” 
    Id.
     In the alternative, the Court concluded that
    Kayer had failed to establish a causal nexus:
    Further, in addition to offering equivocal
    evidence of mental impairment, defendant
    offered no evidence to show the requisite
    KAYER V. RYAN                          15
    causal nexus that mental impairment affected
    his judgment or his actions at the time of the
    murder.
    
    Id.
    After an independent weighing of the two aggravating
    circumstances and the one mitigating circumstance, the
    Arizona Supreme Court affirmed Kayer’s death sentence.
    3. Post-Conviction Proceedings
    Kayer filed a post-conviction relief (“PCR”) petition in
    Arizona Superior Court. See Ariz. R. Crim. P. 32.1. In
    accordance with Arizona law, Kayer’s trial judge presided
    over his PCR proceedings.
    Kayer claimed that the “trial court and the Arizona
    Supreme Court incorrectly applied United States Supreme
    Court law when they required [that] mitigating factors have
    a ‘causal nexus’ to the crime,” in violation of Eddings v.
    Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982). The state responded that
    Kayer had procedurally defaulted his causal nexus Eddings
    claim “by not raising it in his direct appeal, or in a motion for
    reconsideration.” The PCR court agreed, concluding that
    Kayer had procedurally defaulted this claim under Arizona
    Rule of Criminal Procedure 32.2(a)(3).
    Kayer also claimed that his Sixth Amendment right to
    counsel was violated when his trial counsel failed to conduct
    a constitutionally adequate mitigation investigation. The
    PCR court conducted a nine-day evidentiary hearing at the
    end of March 2006, during which Kayer’s attorneys presented
    witnesses and documentary evidence showing the mitigation
    16                    KAYER V. RYAN
    evidence that Kayer’s trial attorneys could have uncovered
    had they performed a constitutionally adequate investigation.
    We describe this evidence in detail below. See infra, Section
    IV.
    The PCR court issued a very brief written decision on
    May 8, 2006, rejecting Kayer’s Sixth Amendment ineffective
    assistance claim. The court concluded that Kayer had
    “voluntarily prohibited his attorneys from further pursuing
    and presenting any possible mitigating evidence.” It
    concluded, in the alternative, that if deficient performance
    under Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), had
    been shown, “no prejudice to the defendant can be found.”
    The Arizona Supreme Court denied without explanation
    Kayer’s Petition for Review of the Superior Court’s denial of
    post-conviction relief.
    4. Federal Habeas Petition
    On December 3, 2007, Kayer filed a timely petition in
    federal district court for a writ of habeas corpus under
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). The district court denied relief, and
    Kayer appealed to this court. We remanded to the district
    court to give Kayer an opportunity to establish cause and
    prejudice pursuant to Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
     (2012),
    for his counsel’s procedural default in state court. The
    district court again denied relief. This appeal followed.
    II. Standard of Review
    “We review the district court’s denial of [a] § 2254
    habeas corpus petition de novo.” Deck v. Jenkins, 
    814 F.3d 954
    , 977 (9th Cir. 2014).
    KAYER V. RYAN                           17
    Kayer’s habeas petition is subject to the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”). See Lindh v.
    Murphy, 
    521 U.S. 320
    , 322–23 (1997). Under AEDPA,
    “[w]e review the last reasoned state court opinion.” Musladin
    v. Lamarque, 
    555 F.3d 830
    , 834 (9th Cir. 2009). In this case,
    that opinion is the written order of the state PCR court.
    AEDPA provides that where a state court has adjudicated
    a claim on the merits, relief may be granted only if the state
    court decision was “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law, as determined
    by the Supreme Court of the United States,” or if the state
    court decision rests on “an unreasonable determination of the
    facts in light of the evidence presented in the State court
    proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), (2). “[A] state-court
    decision is contrary to [Supreme Court] precedent if the state
    court arrives at a conclusion opposite to that reached by [the]
    Court on a question of law . . . [or] if the state court confronts
    facts that are materially indistinguishable from a relevant
    Supreme Court precedent and arrives at [the opposite] result
    . . . .” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 405 (2000). A state
    court unreasonably applies Supreme Court precedent “if the
    state court identifies the correct governing legal principle
    from the Supreme Court’s decisions but unreasonably applies
    that principle to the facts of the prisoner’s case.” Mann v.
    Ryan, 
    828 F.3d 1143
    , 1151 (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc)
    (alteration omitted) (quoting Williams, 
    529 U.S. at 413
    ).
    “[W]e may only hold that a state court’s decision was based
    on an unreasonable determination of the facts if ‘we are
    convinced that an appellate panel, applying the normal
    standards of appellate review, could not reasonably conclude
    that the finding is supported by the record.’” Murray v.
    Schriro, 
    745 F.3d 984
    , 999 (9th Cir. 2014) (quoting Taylor v.
    Maddox, 
    366 F.3d 992
    , 1000 (9th Cir. 2004)). Neither of
    18                    KAYER V. RYAN
    these standards “require[s] citation of [Supreme Court] cases
    . . . [or] even require[s] awareness of [Supreme Court] cases,
    so long as neither the reasoning nor the result of the state-
    court decision contradicts them.” Early v. Packer, 
    537 U.S. 3
    , 8 (2002) (per curiam).
    We review de novo an exhausted claim that a state court
    has failed to decide on the merits. See Pirtle v. Mogan,
    
    313 F.3d 1160
    , 1167 (9th Cir. 2002). We may not grant
    habeas relief if an error in state court was harmless. See
    Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    , 638 (1993).
    III. Causal Nexus and Ineffective Assistance of Counsel
    There are four certified questions before us. The first two
    are the most important. First, Kayer contends that the trial
    court and the Arizona Supreme Court on direct appeal
    violated Eddings v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982), by
    applying an unconstitutional “causal nexus” test under which
    a circumstance is not mitigating unless causally connected to
    the commission of the crime. Eddings held under the Eighth
    Amendment that a sentencer may not “refuse to consider, as
    a matter of law, any relevant mitigating evidence.” 
    Id. at 113
    (emphasis in original). Second, Kayer contends that the
    Arizona PCR court erred in holding that his right to counsel
    under the Sixth Amendment under Strickland had not been
    violated. We consider these two questions in turn.
    A. Causal Nexus
    Kayer contends that the trial court and the Arizona
    Supreme Court violated Eddings. The State responds that
    Kayer procedurally defaulted and failed to exhaust his
    Eddings claim. In the alternative, the State contends on the
    KAYER V. RYAN                         19
    merits that the Arizona Supreme Court did not violate
    Eddings.
    1. Procedural Default and Exhaustion
    If Kayer procedurally defaulted and did not properly
    exhaust his causal nexus claim under Eddings, we may not
    grant his habeas petition on this claim. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (b)(1)(A), (c); Wainwright v. Sykes, 
    433 U.S. 72
    ,
    86–87 (1977). A petitioner “must give the state courts one
    full opportunity to resolve any constitutional issues by
    invoking one complete round of the State’s established
    appellate review process.” O’Sullivan v. Boerckel, 
    526 U.S. 838
    , 845 (1999). It is a close question whether Kayer has
    procedurally defaulted and failed to exhaust his Eddings
    claim. Because we conclude that if we reach Kayer’s
    Eddings claim we must deny it on the merits, we will assume
    without deciding that there was no procedural default and
    failure to exhaust.
    2. Merits
    We held in McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
    , 802, 821
    (9th Cir. 2015) (en banc), that the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    “causal nexus” rule, which “forbade as a matter of law giving
    weight to mitigating evidence . . . unless the background or
    mental condition was causally connected to the crime,”
    violated Eddings. Our opinion in McKinney included a long
    string cite of cases in which the Arizona Supreme Court had
    applied its unconstitutional causal nexus test. The string cite
    included the Court’s affirmance of Kayer’s death sentence on
    direct appeal. See McKinney, 813 F.3d at 816 (citing Kayer,
    
    984 P.2d at 46
    ).
    20                    KAYER V. RYAN
    In explaining its conclusion that Kayer’s alleged “mental
    impairment” was not a mitigating circumstance, the Arizona
    Supreme Court on direct appeal wrote that Kayer “offered no
    evidence to show the requisite causal nexus that mental
    impairment affected his judgment or his actions at the time of
    the murder.” Kayer, 
    984 P.2d at 46
     (emphasis added). The
    emphasized language shows that the Arizona Supreme Court
    viewed causal nexus as a prerequisite to the existence of a
    mitigating circumstance—not merely, as the state argues, as
    a factor bearing on the weight to be accorded to a mitigating
    circumstance. The Court therefore erred in rejecting Kayer’s
    proffered mental impairment evidence on the ground that the
    alleged impairment did not have a causal nexus to the
    commission of the crime. See McKinney, 813 F.3d at 821.
    However, we cannot grant habeas relief if a constitutional
    error was harmless. See Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
    . Here, the
    error was harmless. The Arizona Supreme Court’s causal
    nexus ruling was an alternative holding. The Court’s
    principal holding was that Kayer had presented so little
    evidence of mental impairment that he had failed to establish
    even the existence of any such impairment. See Kayer,
    
    984 P.2d at 46
    . We recounted above the scant evidence of
    mental impairment presented by Kayer’s counsel during the
    penalty phase. Based on the evidence then before it, the
    Arizona Supreme Court made a reasonable determination of
    the facts in concluding that Kayer suffered from no mental
    impairment. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2).
    B. Ineffective Assistance of Counsel
    Kayer also contends that he was denied his Sixth
    Amendment right to effective assistance of counsel due to his
    attorneys’ inadequate mitigation investigation in preparation
    KAYER V. RYAN                         21
    for his penalty phase hearing. See Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 521–22 (2003). Kayer argued to the state PCR court,
    and continues to argue here, that his defense attorneys should
    have taken steps to investigate mitigation evidence beginning
    at the time of their appointment. Kayer presented to the PCR
    court evidence relating to both deficient performance and
    prejudice.
    1. Deficient Performance
    a. Linda Williamson
    Kayer was indicted on December 29, 1994. Linda
    Williamson was appointed to represent him in January 1995.
    Williamson was then in her fourth year as a lawyer. She
    testified in the state PCR court that after graduating from law
    school she had worked for the Maricopa County Public
    Defender’s office for three years. While there she had
    “participated in” “at least” six criminal trials. In December
    1993, she left that office and moved to Prescott, Arizona, in
    Yavapai County. After arriving in Prescott, she worked for
    eight months for a criminal attorney and did one
    “misdemeanor DUI.” She then began work as a contract
    attorney for the county. When Williamson got the contract to
    represent Kayer shortly thereafter, she had never represented
    a client in a murder case, let alone a capital case.
    Williamson testified in the PCR court that Kayer told her
    that he had not killed Haas. Williamson’s paralegal’s billing
    records reflect that this interview took place around February
    1995, about a month after Williamson was appointed. After
    interviewing Kester, Williamson concluded that a jury was
    likely to credit her account rather than Kayer’s, and that
    Kayer’s chance of acquittal if Kester testified was “slim to
    22                     KAYER V. RYAN
    none.” She testified, “I did not see this case as fact-wise
    being favorable to Mr. Kayer in any way, shape, or form.”
    Williamson testified that she concluded that the best guilt-
    phase strategy was to delay and to hope that Kester “would
    implode and not become the star witness for the state.”
    Kester had previously suffered from drug addiction and she
    was pregnant with Kayer’s child. Williamson hoped that
    Kester might again succumb to addiction, and that she might
    disappear or decide not to testify because of her personal
    relationship with Kayer.
    Williamson testified that she asked a more experienced
    attorney, James Bond, to “second chair” the case.
    Williamson testified that she engaged Bond to help her with
    the trial rather than with pre-trial preparation. Bond testified
    in the PCR court that he billed no time on the case and knew
    almost nothing about it. The record is unclear as to whether
    Bond even entered an appearance on Kayer’s behalf.
    The county compensated Williamson at a very low rate.
    She testified that the county paid a lump sum of less than
    $500.00 for the first 80 hours of work, and at a rate of
    $40.00 per hour after that. Williamson billed a total of
    122 hours, including the first 80 hours. Williamson had the
    assistance of a retired detective who worked as an
    investigator, though he was billed as a paralegal because he
    did not have an investigator’s license. Williamson testified
    that the investigator “did a lot of investigation to find out
    what the State’s case [was].”
    Williamson represented Kayer for seventeen and a half
    months. She visited Kayer infrequently, once allowing eight
    to ten months to elapse between visits. She did no
    KAYER V. RYAN                         23
    preparation for a penalty phase trial. She testified, “I can
    absolutely tell you there was no focus on mitigation as far as
    penalty phase.” Williamson testified that she never consulted
    a mitigation expert. When asked whether her decision not to
    investigate mitigation was strategic, she testified, “I don’t
    know if it was strategic.” “I can’t tell you specifically that I
    ever thought about mitigation pretrial.” Her investigator
    spent no time preparing for the penalty phase.
    On June 21, 1996, Williamson was allowed to withdraw
    from representing Kayer on the ground that the attorney-
    client relationship had broken down.
    b. David Stoller and Marc Victor
    David Stoller was appointed to replace Williamson at the
    end of June 1996. Before becoming a defense attorney,
    Stoller had worked for a number of years as a prosecutor. He
    testified in the PCR court that as a prosecutor he had tried
    “probably” forty to fifty felony cases, including one death
    penalty case. He also had done “some post-conviction relief
    matters that were death penalty as a prosecutor,” and had
    done two post-conviction matters as a defense counsel. He
    had never defended a capital case as trial counsel.
    Stoller worked on his own for three and a half months.
    He had no paralegal and he did much of his own secretarial
    work. Some secretarial work was hired out on a piece-work
    basis. On September 17, 1996, at the request of Kayer, Marc
    Victor was appointed as second chair. Victor had graduated
    from law school two years earlier, in the spring of 1994.
    Victor had formed a relationship with Kayer while
    representing him in a “prison contraband” case that arose
    24                     KAYER V. RYAN
    while Kayer was being held in county jail awaiting trial in his
    capital case.
    Stoller testified in the PCR court that no mitigation
    investigation had been done before he was appointed to
    represent Kayer. He found the guilt-phase work done by
    Williamson’s investigator unhelpful. He testified, “I was
    going to have to redo, re-plow the ground myself.” Stoller
    testified that he nonetheless did not “initially” “seek the
    assistance of investigative services” when he was appointed
    to represent Kayer. Without consulting Stoller, Kayer’s
    family had hired an investigator with their own money.
    Stoller spoke with that investigator several times on the
    telephone. He testified that he also found the work of that
    investigator unhelpful. Stoller never asked the investigator to
    do any mitigation investigation.
    Victor testified in the PCR court that when he came on
    the case in mid-September 1996 very little had been done.
    When he first got the case file, it was “a disaster.” “I was
    appalled. I felt that a lot of time had passed. Very little was
    done and I frankly was embarrassed that I now was an
    attorney on a case that was so disorganized[.]” Victor filed
    a “blizzard of motions” in January 1997. At that point, a little
    more than two years after Kayer’s indictment for capital
    murder and six months after Stoller had been appointed to
    represent him, no mitigation investigation had been done.
    One of Victor’s motions, filed on January 15, sought
    funds for two investigators—a “general purpose”
    investigator, and a mitigation investigator. The motion was
    granted on February 24 as to the general purpose investigator,
    but was “deferred” as to the mitigation investigator “unless
    and until there was a guilty finding in the case.” Victor
    KAYER V. RYAN                          25
    testified that the deferral “put a halt to our mitigation efforts
    . . . . That would have been less of a problem had I been
    involved in this case from the very beginning, and then could
    have had a more reasonable opportunity to maybe both do a
    mitigation workup myself, as well as prepare motions and get
    ready for the guilt phase.” “[G]iven the circumstances [that]
    the case had substantially languished for an unreasonable
    length of time at the time I got involved[,] . . . [the deferral]
    was devastating to our ability to undertake mitigation.”
    Neither Stoller nor Victor sought rehearing of the motion for
    funds for a mitigation investigator. Nor did they appeal the
    court’s deferral of the motion.
    Victor testified in the PCR court that, in his view, early
    investigation of mitigation evidence was less important at that
    time than it later became, after the Supreme Court decided
    Ring v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 584
     (2002), requiring jury
    sentencing in capital cases. Victor was asked, “Would you
    agree . . . that counsel must begin mitigation investigation
    immediately upon an appointment to a capital case?” Victor
    responded, “[T]he answer today is a little different than the
    answer at the time that I was representing Mr. Kayer, where
    in Arizona, at least, the court made [the sentencing decision].
    The reason that’s important is because there is at least
    availability of much more time from the guilt phase to the
    sentencing phase, with the judge sentencing.”
    Trial began on March 5, two weeks after the deferral of
    the motion for funds for mitigation investigation. The jury
    returned a verdict of guilty on March 26. The court
    scheduled Kayer’s sentencing hearing for May 27. On April
    8, funds were authorized for a mitigation investigator.
    According to Stoller’s records, his first substantive
    conversation with the investigator, Mary Durand, was on May
    26                     KAYER V. RYAN
    14, more than a month later, though Stoller testified that he
    may have talked to her earlier: “Well, I had notes between
    April 9th and May 14th—whether they were lost—I can’t
    believe I did nothing during this period, but I know that I
    spoke to her at length on the evening of May 14th and I think
    I may have had other contacts.” Durand first met with Kayer
    on May 21, a week after the conversation with Stoller and six
    days before the original date for the sentencing hearing.
    c. Mary Durand
    When Mary Durand testified at Kayer’s sentencing
    hearing, she had already worked as a mitigation specialist on
    almost one hundred capital cases. When she testified in the
    PCR court, she had worked on one hundred and fifty. She
    testified in the PCR court that to her knowledge no mitigation
    specialist in Arizona had worked on more capital cases.
    Durand testified in the PCR court that spending a
    substantial amount of time with a capital defendant,
    beginning very early in the case, is essential in order to build
    trust. Most capital defendants “believe, at least initially, that
    the pursuit of a mitigation case is necessarily a concession of
    guilt.” Durand testified that the “time required to develop
    rapport and trust with a capital client typically takes a
    hundred hours.” She testified, “When you spend time talking
    to them, if you have the proper amount of time, every
    occasion but one, in capital cases that I have done, I have
    gotten the client’s permission to do what I need to do.”
    Durand wrote in an affidavit filed in the PCR court, “[T]o
    investigate and develop the mitigating factors in a capital case
    may well require up to 1500 hours,” including “200 plus
    hours (40 hours a month for five months) to interview, review
    and consult with the client.”
    KAYER V. RYAN                         27
    Durand testified that it is important to begin mitigation
    investigation early: “You work with them to help them
    understand what mitigation is, why it’s important[.]” She
    testified further:
    One of the most important things that you
    do in mitigation is get all the records that you
    possibly can, documents that you can have in
    your hand. And part of that is because many
    clients who have head injuries, high fevers,
    brain damage of any kind, accidents and
    mental illness, don’t remember incidents that
    occurred, or remember them incorrectly.
    So I try not to talk to clients about
    important issues in their life until I have the
    records.
    Durand testified in the PCR court that her first substantive
    conversation with Stoller was on May 14. She was emphatic
    that she had had no substantive conversation with Stoller
    before that date. When Stoller talked to Durand on May 14,
    the penalty phase hearing may already have been rescheduled
    from May 27 to June 24 or 25. (The hearing was ultimately
    held on July 8.) Durand testified that Stoller did not tell her
    during their conversation that the penalty phase hearing was
    imminent and that time was of the essence.
    Durand testified that she met with Kayer twice for a total
    of seven hours, on May 21 and June 5. Durand learned from
    Kayer when they met on May 21 that the hearing was
    imminent.
    28                    KAYER V. RYAN
    Durand’s first meeting with Kayer was a “cold call.” She
    testified, “I had no documents. I had nothing.” At that
    meeting on May 21, Kayer “show[ed] an initial reluctance to
    allow [her] to pursue mitigation.” However, he was willing
    to provide the names of his mother and sister, along with
    addresses and phone numbers. He also told Durand that he
    believed his mother would have some records, though, as it
    turned out, his mother was unable to locate any records when
    Durand went to see her. At the first meeting on May 21,
    Durand persuaded Kayer to sign releases, enabling her to
    request documents relevant to mitigation. Durand promptly
    sent requests, accompanied by the releases, to the institutions
    holding the documents, even though it was likely that few
    (perhaps none) of the requested documents would be
    provided in time for the penalty phase hearing. She testified,
    “I sent [the releases] to all the places that I believed there
    might be records.” None of the school, mental health, and
    military records sought by Durand were provided by the date
    of the hearing on July 8.
    When Kayer met Durand on May 21, he had never heard
    the term “mitigation.” Durand testified that Kayer “was
    extremely unhappy when he realized that [a mitigation
    investigation] should have been started the day he was
    arrested or indicted, and that the two and a half years he’d
    already been in the jail could have been used to do the
    mitigation.” She testified:
    I explained what I did in broad terms. He
    said that he had never heard the term
    [mitigation] before. Had no idea what it
    meant. . . .
    KAYER V. RYAN                         29
    We talked at great length about mitigation.
    He had lots of questions. But everything
    came back to time; “How much time will that
    take?”
    And I said, “Well, might take six or eight
    months just to get the military records.”
    His response was, “You don’t have six to
    eight months because I don’t have six to eight
    months.” And I could not get him past that.
    Kayer allowed Durand to involve his mother and sister
    and was willing to sign releases. However, Kayer was
    adamant that he did not want to pursue mitigation research
    that would involve substantial delay. Kayer did not have “six
    to eight months” because, Durand testified, he “wanted
    desperately to get out of the Yavapai County Jail.” She
    testified, “He hadn’t been getting his medications [for his
    heart condition].” Further, and more important, “[H]e was
    terrified that he was going to be killed, that he would lose his
    life in that facility.” There had already been a murder in the
    jail, and Kayer “had been assaulted and hospitalized in the
    jail infirmary for his injuries.” Durand’s contemporaneous
    notes of her interviews with Kayer recorded, “Afraid he’ll
    lose his life here.”
    On June 6, the day after Durand’s second meeting with
    Kayer, the trial court held a case management meeting.
    Durand was traveling and was unable to attend. Kayer and
    Victor were present; Stoller appeared by telephone. Stoller
    informed the court that Kayer “simply did not want to be in
    the County jail system any longer” and that he opposed any
    continuance. Kayer told the court that he did not believe that
    30                    KAYER V. RYAN
    Durand would be able to discover any useful mitigation
    information. Kayer stated:
    [F]rom what I understand in my conversation
    with Mary Durand, she is talking about a fetal
    alcohol syndrome that possibly existed. She
    hasn’t had the opportunity to investigate it,
    and some minor areas and details in my life
    that I personally can’t see how they would
    relate to mitigation in this case. . . . I’m
    saying I don’t see anything here of substantial
    value. . . . I don’t feel the lack of Mary
    Durand’s mitigation is going to be a major
    factor in the decision [whether I am sentenced
    to death].
    The court indicated that it might be willing to continue the
    date of the penalty phase hearing for perhaps thirty days and
    asked Kayer if he wanted a continuance:
    [I]f I do move it, I’m not about to move it
    anywhere near 180 days off. I’m probably not
    even thinking seriously about 90 days off.
    I’m thinking maybe I could be talked into an
    additional 30 days, something like that, if
    there was some specific purpose.
    Based on his belief that Durand would not be able to discover
    useful information, Kayer opposed any continuance:
    Believe me, if I thought that—that Miss
    Durand had valid evidence that should be
    presented in front of this Court, I’d be
    scratching and clawing and asking for
    KAYER V. RYAN                          31
    180 days as well. I’m not in favor of any
    more continuances. Does that answer your
    question?
    d. Keith Rohman
    Keith Rohman testified as a mitigation specialist in the
    PCR court. Rohman had done mitigation work in capital
    cases for many years. He was a licensed private investigator
    and Adjunct Professor at Loyola Law School in Los Angeles.
    He testified in the PCR court: “[O]ne of the very first steps
    in any capital mitigation representation is to meet the client,
    start to establish a relationship with the client and attempt the
    process of collecting a life history, information that might be
    relevant. . . . [T]hat first meeting is really critical because it
    is [the] spot where you start the process of educating the
    client.” Rohman testified that a “significant number,” of
    capital defendants initially resist mitigation investigations,
    “[a]nd so it takes some time to work through[.]” Rohman
    testified that an additional reason to start mitigation
    investigation “from day 1” is that information learned in the
    investigation can sometimes help at the guilt phase of the
    case. Rohman testified that this “protocol and practice” in the
    “field of mitigation” had been well established by 1995, when
    Kayer was indicted.
    e. Larry Hammond
    Larry Hammond testified in the PCR court on behalf of
    Kayer. At the time of his testimony, Hammond had practiced
    law for thirty-six years. After graduation from law school, he
    had been a law clerk to Justices Hugo Black and Lewis
    Powell. He had been a founding board member of the
    Arizona Capital Representation Project in 1989, and had
    32                      KAYER V. RYAN
    continued as a board member since then. He had been Chair
    of the State Bar Indigent Defense Task Force, paying
    particular attention to representation in capital cases, since the
    mid-1990s. He had been appointed in the late 1990s by the
    Arizona Supreme Court to serve on the Post-Conviction
    Relief Appointment Committee, whose function was to
    “screen applicants for appointment to undertake work as post-
    conviction relief counsel in capital cases.” Hammond’s
    Phoenix law firm had had at least one active capital case in
    the office at all times since 1981, and he had been the “lawyer
    primarily responsible for all of them.” He had been lead
    counsel in ten capital cases. In three of those cases, he had
    been lead counsel from start to finish—two cases in Arizona
    state court in 1991 and 1994, and one case in federal court in
    Arizona in 2005.
    Hammond’s testimony focused on the standard for
    effective assistance of counsel in capital cases that had been
    established by 1995, when Kayer was indicted. Specifically,
    Hammond testified that the standard of practice he described
    was based on ABA guidelines from 1989 and other sources
    from that period. “[T]he information that I provided [in my
    testimony today] was well known in Arizona and elsewhere
    from as far back as the 1980s.”
    Hammond testified that in a capital case “it is of critical
    importance to develop both the guilt-innocence side of the
    case and the sentencing side of the case from the beginning.”
    Hammond testified, consistently with Durand, that capital
    defendants initially resist doing mitigation research at the
    beginning of a case. In part, defendants “instinctively”
    believe that mitigation will become relevant only after
    conviction, and they want their attorneys to focus on the
    guilt-innocence side of the case. Further, defendants are
    KAYER V. RYAN                         33
    “embarrassed” and do not want to involve people such as
    “family members and their high school basketball coaches
    and people who they have known growing up.” Still further,
    conditions in county jails are not conducive to effective
    communication: A client is “there for 19 months or
    20 months or two years waiting for trial. So dealing with a
    client and explaining to a client why mitigation is important
    in that environment can be doubly difficult.” Finally, “most
    people charged with capital crimes have some form of what
    I would call a mental health issue or problem.”
    Hammond testified that a capital defendant’s initial
    resistance is almost always overcome when a client is
    properly advised at the beginning of the case:
    [I]n case after case after case the opening
    experience—not just with me and my
    clients—but with the other defendants facing
    death . . . was what I described earlier. This
    resistance. But eventually for virtually every
    one, virtually every one of those defendants,
    they began to see that the mitigation part of
    the case was important.
    Hammond specifically addressed the need to educate
    judges, as well as clients, about the importance of getting an
    early start on mitigation work. He testified, “[A] mere denial
    of either the client to wanting to do mitigation or the court to
    providing the resources cannot be the end of the
    conversation.” “[T]here is an inherent logic and simplicity in
    getting the resources necessary for capital defense. And in
    cases all across the country once the case is laid out, once the
    explanation is given to good judges about what is necessary
    and why it’s necessary, the experience is that good judges
    34                    KAYER V. RYAN
    say: ‘I understand that and now we will work together to
    make it happen.’ ”
    Hammond also specifically addressed Victor’s view that
    getting an early start on mitigation work was less important
    during the pre-Ring period when judges rather than juries
    determined sentences in capital cases in Arizona. Hammond
    was unequivocal that Victor was incorrect:
    The need for the development of a mitigation
    case is no different in Arizona prior to Ring
    than it is after Ring. . . . [T]he concept that a
    lawyer can simply wait until after the guilt
    phase to begin doing mitigation is simply
    wrong. . . . If you knew nothing else other
    than that a capital defense lawyer said “I can
    defer all mitigation until after the trial”, that
    lawyer is acting at a level far below what is
    deemed acceptable under any kind of a
    Strickland analysis for lawyers in Arizona or
    in any of the other six or seven states that
    prior to Ring had judge sentencing.
    2. Prejudice
    Kayer’s post-conviction counsel presented extensive
    mitigation evidence in the PCR court. His post-conviction
    counsel contended that his trial attorneys could have
    uncovered and presented this evidence at his sentencing
    hearing if they had performed a proper mitigation
    investigation.
    KAYER V. RYAN                         35
    a. Personal and Family History
    Kayer was born in Long Beach, California, in August
    1954. In the first of many moves, the family moved to
    Denver when he was two. Kayer’s father left the family
    shortly after arriving in Denver. He never returned to the
    family. He died of a heart attack at age thirty-nine. After his
    father left the family, Kayer, his older stepsister, and his
    mother moved to Bloomington, California.
    According to his mother and his uncle, Kayer was slow to
    walk. He had poor balance and fell frequently. His mother
    recounted that “he always had bruises . . . on his head and
    body.” His uncle recounted that his mother was afraid to take
    him shopping because he was “covered with bruises.”
    According to his uncle, he was slow at all his developmental
    stages. His mother recounted that Kayer had great trouble
    falling asleep.
    Kayer was dyslexic. In an interview with Mark Goff, an
    investigator for Keith Rohman, Kayer stated that he was good
    with numbers, but that “[t]o this day he has to write things
    three or four times to get the spelling right.” Kayer recounted
    in the interview that “[i]n school he flunked English, but got
    A’s in everything else.” (As will be seen in a moment,
    Kayer’s recounting of his school grades was inaccurate to the
    point of being delusional.) Kayer told Goff that at age seven
    he came to believe (and then continued to believe) that he had
    come to earth from another planet.
    Kayer and his mother moved to Arkansas after ninth
    grade. Kayer began using drugs when he was sixteen. He
    told Goff that he would “smoke weed almost every day,” and
    would usually use speed on the weekends. He recounted
    36                    KAYER V. RYAN
    “Speed works good for a night owl.”            Kayer would
    sometimes use LSD.
    Some of Kayer’s high school grades are in the record. In
    the fall of the ninth grade in Fontana, California, he got one
    B (in Drafting), five Cs, and one D (in English). In the
    spring, he got two Bs (in Typing and PE), one C, two Ds, and
    two Fs (in History and English). In fall of the tenth grade in
    Morrilton, Arkansas, he got one C (in English), four Ds, and
    one F (in Algebra). In the spring, he got one B (in Speech),
    two Ds, and two Fs (in English and PE). Kayer left high
    school, in Seligman, Arizona, without graduating, leaving
    either at the end of his junior year or part way through his
    senior year.
    After leaving high school, Kayer enlisted in the Navy. He
    was seventeen years old. Within eight months, he had two
    “unauthorized absences” (“UAs”). He was arrested and jailed
    in Texas at the end of his first UA. He returned voluntarily
    from his second UA “in order to see a psychiatrist.” In May
    1973, after his second UA, Kayer was referred to Bethesda
    Naval Hospital with a diagnosis of “schizoid personality.”
    He was held there for a little more than three weeks. Kayer
    was discharged from Bethesda with a diagnosis of “passive-
    aggressive personality.” In a written evaluation at discharge,
    Lieutenant Commander M. D. Fitz, head of the “Enlisted
    Psychiatric Service,” characterized Kayer’s “impairment” as
    “severe.” Fitz wrote, “In view of the severity of his
    personality disorder it is recommended that he be
    administratively separated from the service.”
    After his release from the Navy, Kayer returned to
    Arizona. At various times, he attended Yuma Community
    College, Arizona State University, and Arizona Western
    KAYER V. RYAN                          37
    College, but received no degrees. In his interview with Goff,
    Kayer stated that he never got a degree because he believed
    he could make more money buying and selling jewelry than
    with a degree.
    Kayer had two unsuccessful marriages in his early
    twenties. Kayer’s second marriage was to an Afghan woman.
    Kayer maintained in his interview with Goff that her uncle
    was “the deposed king of Afghanistan.”
    When Kayer was twenty-five or twenty-six, he met Cindy
    Seitzberg. Kayer and Seitzberg never married, but they lived
    together for several years. They had a son, Tao, who was
    dropped in the delivery room and suffered permanent brain
    damage. About six months after Tao’s birth, Seitzberg began
    work as a stripper while Kayer stayed home to take care of
    Tao. When Tao was about one, Seitzberg left Kayer.
    Kayer’s half-sister Jean Hopson testified in the PCR court,
    “[Cindy] had brought [Tao] to my mother’s and asked if she
    would like to keep him for the weekend, and my mother said
    ‘yes.’ And we never saw her again.” Hopson and Kayer’s
    mother became co-guardians of Tao.
    Beginning in his mid-twenties, Kayer began committing
    property crimes. He first committed a series of burglaries
    with a friend, Peter Decell. They were caught, and Kayer
    served a short time in jail in Arizona. Shortly after his release
    from jail, Kayer was arrested for burglary in Arkansas. Later,
    when she was pregnant with Tao, Seitzberg served as a
    lookout for Kayer while he committed burglaries. Kayer
    continued committing burglaries well into his thirties.
    Interspersed with his burglaries, Kayer worked as a
    photographer, a salesperson for a satellite communications
    38                     KAYER V. RYAN
    company, a hazardous waste remover, and a buyer, maker and
    seller of jewelry. He never held a job for a sustained period.
    His cousin, Barbara Rogers, testified at the PCR hearing,
    “[H]e had trouble with holding . . . a job. . . . He had trouble
    working for others. . . . [H]e had a lot of emotional
    problems, depression.”
    Kayer began drinking alcohol regularly when he was
    about twenty-one, and soon became a very heavy drinker.
    Peter Decell recounted that during their time together Kayer
    would drink beer “for breakfast, lunch and dinner.” Kayer
    reported that when he was twenty-five he was drinking half
    a quart of bourbon a day. When Kayer checked himself into
    a Veterans Administration hospital at age thirty-five, Dr. A.
    Rodriguez reported that Kayer was “acutely intoxicated.”
    “He presented himself with a very strong odor of alcohol, and
    it was very difficult for him to get his thoughts together
    because of alcohol intoxication. The patient had been
    drinking continuously and heavily for the past seven years[.]”
    Sometime in his twenties, Kayer became a compulsive
    gambler. His half-sister Jean Hopson testified that he had a
    “gambling addiction.” Kayer told Hopson that he had a
    gambling “system.” Kayer’s cousin, Barbara Rogers,
    testified that her close girlfriend dated Kayer for a time, and
    that when the girlfriend and Kayer went to Las Vegas, “she
    could not get him away from the . . . gambling table. He
    would not leave.” In his mid-thirties, while in prison in
    Arizona on a burglary conviction, Kayer engaged in illegal
    bookmaking. After release and while on “house arrest,”
    Kayer took off his ankle bracelet and flew to Las Vegas to
    gamble. Kayer turned himself in after he had lost all his
    money. He was sentenced to an additional nineteen months
    for violation of parole.
    KAYER V. RYAN                         39
    Beginning shortly after his release from the Navy at age
    eighteen, Kayer experienced severe mood swings. His
    mother and sister both described his mood swings in their
    testimony at his sentencing hearing. See supra at 9–10.
    Barbara Rogers testified in the PCR court about Kayer’s
    “manic behavior.” As an example, she described a trip Kayer
    decided to take, “out-of-the-blue when it wasn’t prepared, it
    wasn’t a good time.” “I kept telling him no. And he was just
    real excited about it, wouldn’t stop talking about it.” In her
    interview with Goff, Seitzberg recounted, “I would stay up
    with him at night and . . . would see mood swings. . . . [He]
    would either work [at something] all out, or do nothing.”
    In 1983, shortly after the birth of his son Tao, Kayer went
    voluntarily to a VA hospital. Kayer was twenty-nine. He
    was observed to be “agitated” and “tearful.” Kayer is quoted
    on the VA form as saying, “I just want to know what’s
    wrong.” The form records: “P: to see MD.” Immediately
    below, a doctor with an illegible signature wrote, “Pt is
    depressed with some suicidal ideation” and “diagnosis:
    adjustment disorder with depressed mood.”
    Six years later, in 1989, Kayer checked himself into a VA
    hospital, where he was kept for eighteen days. Dr. A.
    Rodriguez wrote on the VA form that Kayer had been
    “admitted . . . with depression and suicidal ideation.” “He
    admitted to suicidal and homicidal ideations towards his
    girlfriend [who had just left him] and her boyfriend, but
    didn’t plan to do anything to them while he is in the hospital,
    and wanted some help.” Dr. Rodriquez wrote that Kayer
    “showed bipolar traits.” At the time of discharge, Kayer was
    “not considered to be a danger to himself or others.” At
    discharge, he was prescribed one month’s supply of lithium,
    a standard medication for bipolar disorder.
    40                     KAYER V. RYAN
    In 1990, Kayer was referred to a VA “Day Treatment
    Center” for therapy, with a “provisional diagnosis” of
    “Personality Disorder/Bipolar.” Kayer told a probation
    officer in 1990 that until he was diagnosed during his stay at
    the VA hospital in 1989 “he had no idea what was wrong
    with him.”
    Kayer had a history on both sides of the family of
    alcoholism, compulsive gambling, and mental illness.
    Kayer’s father, who left the family when Kayer was two
    and died at age thirty-nine of a heart attack, was an alcoholic
    and compulsive gambler. One witness testified at the PCR
    hearing that Kayer’s father “wasn’t happy unless he was
    gambling.”
    On his mother’s side, Kayer’s Aunt Opal Irene Marchman
    (one of his mother’s three sisters) testified about herself in the
    PCR court, “I have [heard voices] all my life. My grandpa
    heard voices. It runs in the family.” She testified that Kayer
    heard voices, too: “I was just telling him about my life and
    he said ‘I thought it was normal[.] I hear voices, too.’” She
    testified, further, that alcoholism and depression “run[] in the
    family.”
    Kayer’s Aunt Ona Mae Tanner (another of his mother’s
    sisters) was an alcoholic with severe mood swings. Ona
    Mae’s daughter, Jean Reilly, was an alcoholic and
    compulsive gambler who was first diagnosed as
    schizophrenic and then as bipolar (manic depressive). Jean
    Reilly’s niece, Barbara Rogers, testified in the PCR court that
    Jean had “electric shock therapy” after a “nervous
    breakdown.” Jean’s daughter, Constance Stabile, testified,
    “[A]bout every year [Jean] would get manic, very manic and
    KAYER V. RYAN                         41
    hyper and she couldn’t sleep and [would] lose weight[.]”
    Stabile testified that Jean married her last husband on a manic
    high a week after meeting him at an Alcoholics Anonymous
    meeting, and that she once went to Las Vegas on a manic
    high and “blew” her “entire retirement” in a single weekend.
    Kayer’s Aunt Olita “Aunt Tomi” Sandstrom (the third of
    his mother’s sisters) was an alcoholic. Aunt Opal Irene
    testified in the PCR court that her “baby sister” Olita drank
    “excessively.” She testified that Olita was also severely
    depressed: “She would just sit and stare into space like—it
    was bad.”
    Kayer’s Uncle John Williams (his mother’s one brother)
    also had mental problems. Aunt Opal Irene testified, “He fell
    and hit his head in a creek in Oklahoma and he just never did
    do too good after that.” John Williams’ niece, Barbara
    Rogers, testified, “My Uncle John was a thief, a robber, he
    held his own family members at gunpoint and knifepoint a
    few times. And he just was not a good person to have
    around.”
    On October 21, 1994, Kayer was admitted to a VA
    hospital after suffering a severe heart attack. He had just
    turned forty. His father had died of a heart attack at age
    thirty-nine. The VA hospital form recorded, “The patient . . .
    presented . . . with a history of anterior precordial chest pain
    starting at about 1 o’clock in the afternoon, no relief after
    three beers.” Doctors wanted to keep Kayer in the hospital,
    but after three days he checked himself out “against medical
    advice.”
    Kayer killed Haas six weeks later.
    42                     KAYER V. RYAN
    b. Professional Assessments
    (1) Dr. Anne Herring
    Dr. Anne Herring, an Associate Professor of Clinical
    Psychiatry and Neurology at the University of Arizona,
    examined Kayer in prison on March 16, 2005, and
    administered an extensive battery of tests. She testified in the
    PCR court that Kayer received average scores on all tests
    except one. Dr. Herring wrote in her report that “on one of
    the more cognitively challenging tests” Kayer “demonstrated
    significant difficulty when required to execute complex
    problem solving and persisted in applying incorrect concepts
    despite receiving feedback.” She wrote, “[S]imilar deficits
    have been associated with chronic heavy substance abuse,
    traumatic brain injury, and with bipolar disorder.”
    (2) Dr. Michael Sucher
    Dr. Michael Sucher, a specialist in “alcohol and drug
    addiction medicine” and Acting Director for the Arizona
    Division of Behavioral Health in the Department of Health
    Services, examined Kayer in prison on April 5, 2005, for
    approximately two hours. Dr. Sucher reviewed Kayer’s
    medical and psychological records in connection with his
    examination.
    In his report, Dr. Sucher reviewed Kayer’s history of
    “chronic alcohol dependence,” and extensive history of
    compulsive gambling. Dr. Sucher wrote that Kayer had spent
    “probably one-quarter to one-third” of his interview
    discussing gambling and the “systems for winning” he had
    developed. Dr. Sucher wrote, “He really is in effect,
    completely obsessed with gambling.”
    KAYER V. RYAN                       43
    Dr. Sucher testified in the PCR court that at the time of
    the crime Kayer was impaired by the combination of
    alcoholism and obsessive gambling:
    [H]e had untreated alcoholism and untreated
    pathological gambling; that both of those
    disorders impair one’s judgment. And . . . the
    pursuit of continued gambling and the pursuit
    of continued drinking often make individuals
    who are so impaired do things that they would
    not normally do, some of which may involve
    the commission of a crime or crimes.
    (3) Dr. Barry Morenz
    Dr. Barry Morenz, an Associate Professor of Clinical
    Psychiatry at the University of Arizona, board certified in
    General Psychiatry and in Forensic Psychiatry, interviewed
    Kayer in prison on March 24 and April 19, 2005, for a total
    of five and a half hours. Like Dr. Sucher, Dr. Morenz
    reviewed Kayer’s medical and psychological records in
    connection with his interviews.
    Dr. Morenz wrote an extensive report and testified at
    length in the PCR court. Dr. Morenz wrote that Kayer spent
    much of the interview talking about gambling, explaining,
    among other things, how he had developed a system for
    predicting winning lottery numbers. Kayer told Dr. Morenz
    that “the numbers for tomorrow’s lottery are already known
    in the collective unconscious,” and that “using his spirit
    guides and his mathematical algorithm,” he could predict
    these numbers and “when he is released make 20 million
    dollars.” Kayer also explained his belief in reincarnation
    (which he called “recycling”), and his belief that there is
    44                    KAYER V. RYAN
    “residue in him from when Mars was populated and perhaps
    populations from other worlds as well.” (As noted above,
    supra p. 35, Kayer began at age seven to believe that he had
    come from another world.) Dr. Morenz characterized
    Kayer’s beliefs as “really delusional.”
    Dr. Morenz provided a diagnosis of Kayer at the time of
    the interviews: “Bipolar type I disorder, hypomaniac;
    Alcohol dependence in a controlled environment;
    Polysubstance abuse in a controlled environment;
    Pathological gambling; Cognitive disorder not otherwise
    specified.” More important for our purposes, Dr. Morenz
    provided a diagnosis as of 1994:
    There are a number of factors that have
    increased the risk of Mr. Kayer developing a
    number of psychiatric problems. First, there
    is considerable comorbidity among
    psychiatric diagnoses. . . . In Mr. Kayer this
    is relevant because people with bipolar
    disorders and personality disorders are at an
    increased risk of developing substance abuse
    disorders. Also, people with personality
    disorders have an increased risk of mood
    disorders. Secondly, Mr. Kayer had a family
    history of problems with alcohol, gambling
    and bipolar disorder that increased his risk of
    developing one or more of these disorders.
    Thirdly, as a child Mr. Kayer grew up with
    significant instability including frequent
    moves and his father’s sudden death when Mr.
    Kayer was still very young which probably
    contributed to his later psychiatric difficulties.
    There is evidence that even as a child Mr.
    KAYER V. RYAN                       45
    Kayer was showing signs of emotional
    problems as his performance in school was
    not good. This poor school performance was
    probably an early sign of a bipolar disorder or
    a personality disorder or a combination of the
    two. By the time Mr. Kayer washed out of the
    military Mr. Kayer likely had moderately
    severe psychiatric problems that went
    untreated. . . . [I]t seems clear that he has
    suffered from serious psychiatric problems
    during most of his adult life and he continues
    to show signs of those problems today. . . .
    At the time of the murder in 1994 Mr.
    Kayer was probably having serious
    psychiatric problems.         He was having
    problems with bipolar disorder symptoms and
    may have been manic or hypomanic, he was
    having difficulties with out of control
    pathological gambling and he had difficulty
    with extensive alcohol abuse.            These
    difficulties were likely superimposed on his
    personality disorder problems and his
    cognitive disorder not otherwise specified.
    Mr. Kayer’s belief that he would not live long
    as a result of the heart attack he had suffered
    a few weeks before the murder was another
    important source of emotional distress that
    was likely exacerbating all his other problems
    during this period.
    46                    KAYER V. RYAN
    3. Discussion
    The Sixth Amendment guarantees effective assistance of
    counsel. Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 686 (1984).
    A defendant is denied his or her right to effective assistance
    when “counsel’s representation f[alls] below an objective
    standard of reasonableness” and “there is a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    result of the proceeding would have been different.” 
    Id. at 688, 694
    . “A reasonable probability is a probability sufficient
    to undermine confidence in the outcome.” 
    Id. at 694
    .
    The right to effective assistance of counsel extends to the
    sentencing phase of a capital trial. 
    Id.
     at 686–87. All
    criminal defense attorneys have a “duty to make reasonable
    investigations or to make a reasonable decision that makes
    particular investigations unnecessary.” 
    Id. at 691
    . For capital
    defense attorneys, this duty to investigate includes an
    “obligation to conduct a thorough investigation of the
    defendant’s background.” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    ,
    396 (2000).
    In a brief written order, the state PCR court held that
    Kayer had not established a Sixth Amendment violation
    under Strickland. The court wrote as to his attorneys’
    performance:
    The court concludes that at the time of
    sentencing, the defendant voluntarily
    prohibited his attorneys from further pursuing
    and presenting any possible mitigating
    evidence.
    KAYER V. RYAN                       47
    In the alternative, the court wrote as to prejudice:
    This court further concludes that if there had
    been a finding that the performance prong of
    the Strickland standard had been met, that no
    prejudice to the defendant can be found.
    (Emphasis in the original.)
    The order of the PCR court was the last reasoned decision
    of the state court. Wilson v. Sellers, 
    138 S. Ct. 1188
    , 1194
    (2018). We must determine whether the PCR court’s
    decision was “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law, as determined
    by the Supreme Court” as of May 8, 2006, when the state
    PCR court issued its decision, or was an “unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), (2).
    a. Performance
    With respect to the “performance prong,” the state PCR
    court concluded that Kayer’s attorneys had provided effective
    assistance. Its only finding in support of that conclusion was
    that “at the time of sentencing” Kayer had voluntarily
    prohibited his attorneys from pursuing and presenting any
    additional mitigating evidence. We need not disturb the PCR
    court’s conclusion that Kayer acted voluntarily at the time of
    sentencing in prohibiting his counsel from pursuing
    mitigation, for the state PCR court asked, and answered, the
    wrong question. The question is not whether Kayer
    voluntarily prevented his counsel from pursuing mitigation in
    mid-1997. The question is whether Kayer’s counsel should
    have begun mitigation efforts when first appointed to
    48                     KAYER V. RYAN
    represent him in January 1995. Kayer presented precisely
    this question to the PCR court.
    “The failure to timely prepare a penalty-phase mitigation
    case is . . . error.” Allen v. Woodford, 
    395 F.3d 979
    , 1001
    (9th Cir. 2005). Mary Durand, Larry Hammond, and Keith
    Rohman all testified in the PCR court that in 1995
    professionally competent representation required that
    mitigation efforts be started at the very beginning of a capital
    case. Durand testified that it is essential to spend substantial
    time with a capital defendant, beginning very early in the
    case, in order to build trust and understanding. Hammond
    testified that “it is of critical importance to develop both the
    guilt-innocence side of the case and sentencing side of the
    case from the beginning.” (Emphasis added.) Rohman
    testified that “one of the very first steps in any capital
    mitigation representation is to meet the client, start to
    establish a relationship with the client and attempt the process
    of collecting a life history[.]” Hammond and Rohman both
    testified that by 1995 it had become standard practice in
    capital cases to begin mitigation efforts at the outset of a case.
    Hammond cited the 1989 American Bar Association guidance
    for capital representation, and testified that “the information
    I provided [in my testimony today] was well known in
    Arizona and elsewhere from as far back as the 1980s.”
    Rohman testified that the “protocol and practice” he
    described had been well established by 1995.
    In Rompilla v. Beard, 
    545 U.S. 374
     (2005), decided a year
    before the decision of the PCR court, the Supreme Court held
    that defense counsel had rendered deficient performance by
    failing to investigate properly in preparation for the penalty
    phase hearing. In reaching its conclusion, the Court relied on
    performance standards established by the American Bar
    KAYER V. RYAN                         49
    Association. The Court wrote, “[T]he American Bar
    Association Standards for Criminal Justice in circulation at
    the time of Rompilla’s trial describes the obligation in terms
    no one could misunderstand[.]” Rompilla, 
    545 U.S. at 387
    .
    After quoting the relevant 1982 ABA Standards, the Court
    wrote, “‘[W]e long have referred [to these ABA Standards]
    as ‘guides to determining what is reasonable.”’ 
    Id.
     (alteration
    in original) (quoting Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. at 510, 524
    (2003). In a footnote, the Court referred to the 1989 ABA
    Guidelines for the Appointment and Performance of Counsel
    in Death Penalty Cases (“1989 ABA Guidelines”),
    promulgated shortly after Rompilla’s trial, noting that they
    were “specifically devoted to setting forth the obligations of
    defense counsel in death penalty cases.” 
    Id.
     at 387 n.7. See
    also Wiggins, 
    539 U.S. at 524
     (relying on the “well-defined
    norms” of the 1989 ABA Guidelines, describing them as
    “standards to which we long have referred as ‘guides to
    determining what is reasonable’”).
    The 1989 ABA Guidelines state unambiguously that
    defense counsel in capital cases should begin investigation for
    the penalty phase as soon as they are appointed.
    Guideline 11.4.1(A) provides, “Both [guilt/innocence phase
    and penalty phase] investigations should begin immediately
    upon counsel’s entry into the case and should be pursued
    expeditiously.”        Guidelines 11.8.3(A) provides,
    “[P]reparation for the sentencing phase, in the form of
    investigation, should begin immediately upon counsel’s entry
    into the case.”
    Linda Williamson was appointed to represent Kayer at the
    beginning of January 1995, six years after the issuance of the
    1989 ABA Guidelines. Williamson represented Kayer for a
    year and a half. During that time, she did no mitigation
    50                     KAYER V. RYAN
    investigation. David Stoller was appointed to replace
    Williamson at the end of June 1996. For six months, he did
    no mitigation investigation. Marc Victor, who was appointed
    to assist Stoller, moved on January 15, 1997, for funds to hire
    a mitigation investigator. On February 24, the judge deferred
    ruling on the motion until after conviction. Neither Stoller
    nor Victor appealed or sought reconsideration of the order.
    Funds for a mitigation investigator were finally authorized on
    April 8. Stoller had his first substantive conversation with the
    mitigation specialist, Mary Durand, on May 14. Durand first
    met with Kayer on May 21, almost eleven months after
    Stoller was appointed and almost two and half years after
    Williamson was appointed. When Durand met with Kayer on
    May 21, Kayer had never heard the term “mitigation.” The
    penalty phase hearing, which had originally been set for
    May 27, was held on July 8.
    We hold that in failing to begin penalty phase
    investigation promptly after they were appointed, Kayer’s
    attorneys’ “representation fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 688
    . The
    conclusion of the state PCR court that Kayer’s attorneys
    provided constitutionally adequate performance was
    “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1); see Rompilla,
    
    545 U.S. at 387
    .
    b. Prejudice
    A habeas petitioner must establish not only deficient
    performance, but also “a reasonable probability that, but for
    counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding
    would have been different.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    KAYER V. RYAN                         51
    There are two questions to be answered in determining
    whether Kayer was prejudiced by his attorneys’ deficient
    performance. First, if his counsel had begun mitigation
    efforts at the outset of the case, would Kayer have
    cooperated? (Because, as will be seen in a moment, the
    answer to this question is “yes,” we need not ask what his
    counsel would have been able to discover in the absence of
    Kayer’s cooperation.) Second, was the mitigation evidence
    that was presented to the PCR court sufficient to establish a
    “reasonable probability,” “sufficient to undermine confidence
    in the outcome,” that the result of the sentencing hearing
    would have been different? We address each question in
    turn.
    (1) Would Kayer Have Cooperated?
    Mary Durand testified in the PCR court that it is common
    for capital defendants to resist mitigation efforts at the
    beginning, but that they virtually always come around and
    cooperate with such efforts. When Durand testified in the
    PCR court, she had worked on one hundred and fifty capital
    cases. She testified, “When you spend time talking to them,
    if you have the proper amount of time, every occasion but
    one, in capital cases I have done, I have gotten the client’s
    permission to do what I need to do.” Larry Hammond
    testified to the same effect in the PCR court: “[E]ventually
    for virtually every one . . . of those defendants, they began to
    see that the mitigation part of the case was important.”
    Kayer’s objection “at the time of sentencing” to further
    mitigation research was not based on a categorical objection
    to involving family members or to sharing personal
    information.     Indeed, he willingly provided contact
    information for his mother, suggested that his mother might
    52                    KAYER V. RYAN
    have relevant documents, and signed waivers that allowed
    Durand to seek school, military, medical and psychological
    records. Rather, his objection was based on two factors.
    First, he wanted to be transferred out of the Yavapai County
    Jail. There had been a murder in the jail, and Kayer had been
    attacked in the jail. Durand testified in the PCR court that
    Kayer “was terrified that he was going to be killed, that he
    would lose his life in that facility.” When Durand told Kayer
    on May 21 that she needed six to eight months, he responded,
    “I don’t have six to eight months.” Second, as Kayer told the
    trial court on June 6, he believed (mistakenly) that nothing
    valuable would be discovered if a continuance were granted.
    If he had believed that a continuance would produce valuable
    information, he would have strongly supported a continuance.
    As he expressed it, “Believe me, if I thought that—that Miss
    Durand had valid evidence that should be presented in front
    of this Court, I’d be scratching and clawing and asking for
    180 days as well.”
    The state PCR court made no factual finding with respect
    to whether, if mitigation efforts had been begun at the outset
    of the case, Kayer would have cooperated in those efforts. So
    there is no factual finding to which we can defer. However,
    even if we were to assume that the PCR court had made such
    a finding, it would be have been “an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2). The
    uncontradicted testimony of Durand and Hammond
    established that it was a virtual certainty that Kayer would
    have cooperated in a mitigation investigation if it had begun
    in January 1995, at the beginning of the case, rather than in
    late May 1997.
    KAYER V. RYAN                         53
    (2) Reasonable Probability of a Different Outcome?
    (i) Waiver of Argument
    Kayer presented to the PCR court extensive and
    uncontroverted evidence of mental impairment. The State
    could have argued to us that even if Kayer’s counsel had
    sought to begin mitigation efforts at the outset of the case,
    funds for mitigation investigation would not have been
    authorized until after Kayer’s conviction. If this were so, the
    State could have argued, much of the evidence presented to
    the PCR court would not have been discovered and developed
    even by competent counsel.
    However, the State has not made this argument, perhaps
    because it does not want to implicate itself as contributing to
    the ineffectiveness of Kayer’s representation. We therefore
    consider the argument waived. However, even if the State
    had made the argument, we would reject it for essentially two
    reasons.
    First, Larry Hammond testified that a competent capital
    defense attorney should work to persuade a judge of the
    necessity of early authorization of funds for mitigation
    investigation, and that a good judge will understand the
    necessity and will authorize the funds. As described above,
    Hammond testified, “[O]nce the explanation is given to good
    judges about what is necessary and why it’s necessary, the
    experience is that good judges say: ‘I understand that and
    now we will work together to make that happen.’”
    Second, even if the State would not have provided
    mitigation investigation funds at the outset of the case, a
    competent attorney could have done a great deal in their
    54                    KAYER V. RYAN
    absence. One of the keys to a competent investigation, as
    explained by Durand, is early gathering of medical,
    psychological, school, and other documents. It would have
    been a simple and inexpensive task to obtain waivers from
    Kayer and to send for such documents. Durand obtained
    waivers from Kayer at her first meeting with him and sent for
    the documents immediately thereafter. It would also have
    been a relatively simple task to interview known and easily
    accessible friends and relatives. Williamson had an
    investigator, but she never asked him to do such work. When
    Stoller took over the case, he learned that Kayer’s family had
    hired an investigator at their own expense. Stoller could have
    asked that investigator to do such work, but he did not do so.
    It would likely have been necessary to wait for state funding
    to hire expert witnesses such as Drs. Henning, Sucher and
    Morenz, but experts could have done their work fairly
    quickly, even after conviction, if the relevant documents had
    already been obtained and interviews had already been done.
    (ii) Effect of New Evidence
    Under Arizona law in 1997 when Kayer was sentenced to
    death, mental impairment could be either a statutory or non-
    statutory mitigating circumstance, depending on the degree of
    impairment. There were five listed “statutory” mitigating
    circumstances under Arizona law. The first of these was
    mental impairment: “The defendant’s capacity to appreciate
    the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his conduct to
    the requirements of law was significantly impaired, but not so
    impaired as to constitute a defense to prosecution.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1) (1977). (All references are to the
    1997 version of Arizona Revised Statutes unless otherwise
    indicated.) If evidence of a “mental condition” did not
    establish a mental impairment within the meaning of the
    KAYER V. RYAN                         55
    statutory mitigator and instead “merely establishe[d] a
    character or personality disorder,” the mental condition was
    considered as a non-statutory mitigator. State v. Fierro,
    
    804 P.2d 72
    , 86 (Ariz. 1991) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). In Kayer’s case on direct appeal, the Supreme
    Court of Arizona held that he had presented insufficient
    evidence to establish the existence of any mental impairment,
    whether as a statutory or a non-statutory mitigator.
    A comparison of Kayer’s case with other Arizona cases
    demonstrates that the evidence he presented to the PCR court
    was sufficient to establish a statutory mitigating circumstance
    under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1). See, e.g., State v.
    Stevens, 
    764 P.2d 724
    , 727–29 (Ariz. 1988) (“capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct had been impaired
    by his longterm use of drugs and alcohol” and constituted a
    mitigating circumstance under § 13-703(G)(1)); State v.
    Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d 1
    , 16–17 (Ariz. 1983) (drug use beginning
    at age thirteen and continuing for over nine years “likely
    impaired defendant’s volitional capabilities” and constituted
    a mitigating circumstance under § 13-703(G)(1)).
    In many ineffective assistance of counsel cases, enough
    evidence has already been presented at the time of sentencing
    to establish a mitigating circumstance. In such cases, when
    additional evidence relevant to that circumstance is later
    presented to the state habeas court, the additional evidence is
    cumulative and typically does not establish prejudice. See,
    e.g., Smith v. Ryan, 
    823 F.3d 1270
    , 1296 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (“brain scans . . . were largely cumulative of the mitigating
    evidence presented by Dr. Parrish”); Cunningham v. Wong,
    
    704 F.3d 1143
    , 1163 (9th Cir. 2013) (“Dr. Coburn’s
    testimony about Cunningham’s mental state . . . would [ ]
    have been cumulative”); Lopez v. Ryan, 
    678 F.3d 1131
    , 1138
    56                    KAYER V. RYAN
    (9th Cir. 2012) (“[T]he claim was a very narrow one and
    related only to supplemental evidence”); Moormann v. Ryan,
    
    628 F.3d 1102
    , 1113 (9th Cir. 2010) (finding no prejudice
    because of the “cumulative nature of the new evidence”).
    Kayer’s case is fundamentally different. The minimal
    evidence of mental impairment presented at Kayer’s penalty
    phase hearing was so speculative that the sentencing judge
    and the Arizona Supreme Court on direct appeal found no
    mental impairment whatsoever. Not only was the evidence
    insufficient to establish a statutory mitigating circumstance
    under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1); it was insufficient
    even to establish a non-statutory mitigating circumstance.
    Instead of being cumulative, the evidence presented to the
    PCR court of Kayer’s mental impairment established for the
    first time its very existence.
    The sentencing court and the Arizona Supreme Court on
    de novo direct review weighed two statutory aggravating
    circumstances against one non-statutory mitigating
    circumstance. If the evidence of Kayer’s mental impairment
    presented to the PCR court had been presented to the
    sentencing court, that court and the Arizona Supreme Court
    would have added to the balance the statutory mitigating
    circumstance of Kayer’s mental impairment.
    The two aggravating circumstances were commission of
    the crime for “pecuniary value” under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (F)(5), and a prior conviction of a “serious offense”
    under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (F)(2). The second
    aggravating circumstance was relatively weak. “Serious
    offense” was broadly defined under the statute, and Kayer’s
    offense was at the less serious end of the spectrum. Among
    the specified “serious offenses” were first degree murder,
    KAYER V. RYAN                         57
    second degree murder, manslaughter, aggravated assault
    resulting in serious physical injury, sexual assault, and any
    dangerous crime against children.          
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (H)(1)–(6). Kayer’s prior conviction was for first
    degree burglary.
    The one mitigating circumstance at sentencing was the
    relatively weak non-statutory mitigator of Kayer’s
    importance in the life of his son. If the evidence presented to
    the PCR court had been presented to the sentencing court, it
    would have established an additional mitigating
    circumstance—the statutory mitigator of mental impairment
    under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1).
    The evidence supporting a finding of mental impairment
    was extensive and uncontroverted. Kayer was slow to walk
    and develop. Starting at age seven and continuing into
    adulthood, Kayer believed that he was a reincarnated being
    from another planet. He was dyslexic, was moved from
    school to school, and got poor grades. He began using drugs,
    including marijuana and speed, beginning in his teens. Kayer
    left high school without graduating and joined the Navy. He
    was discharged from the Navy a year later due to “severe”
    mental “impairment.” He began drinking heavily when he
    was about twenty-one and became severely addicted to
    alcohol. He became a compulsive gambler sometime in his
    twenties. His gambling addiction persisted unabated
    thereafter.
    Kayer suffered the emotional highs and lows typical of
    bipolar disease. He voluntarily checked himself into VA
    hospitals in 1983 and 1989. At the VA hospital in 1989, he
    was given a prescription for lithium, a standard medication
    for bipolar disease. In 1990 as an outpatient, he was given a
    58                    KAYER V. RYAN
    provisional diagnosis of “Personality Disorder/Bipolar.” In
    1990, Kayer stated that until he was diagnosed and given
    lithium at the VA hospital in 1989, he had “no idea what was
    wrong with him.”
    Kayer had an extensive family history of mental disease.
    His father was an alcoholic and a compulsive gambler. One
    of his mother’s three sisters “heard voices.” That sister
    testified that Kayer had told her that he heard voices, too.
    The other two sisters were alcoholics and bipolar. His
    mother’s one brother had mental problems. One of his
    cousins was bipolar and underwent electroshock therapy.
    The evidence presented to the PCR court established the
    statutory mitigating circumstance of mental impairment under
    
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1). The evidence also
    established a causal connection between Kayer’s mental
    impairment and the crime. Dr. Sucher testified that at the
    time of the crime Kayer “had untreated alcoholism and
    untreated pathological gambling.” Dr. Morenz testified that
    at the time of the crime, Kayer “was having problems with
    bipolar disorder symptoms . . . , he was having difficulties
    with out of control pathological gambling and he had
    difficulty with extensive alcohol abuse.” Kayer’s near-fatal
    heart attack, at essentially the same age as his father’s fatal
    heart attack, six weeks before the murder was “another
    important source of emotional distress that was likely
    exacerbating all of his other problems.”
    We must decide whether “it was objectively unreasonable
    [for the state PCR court] to conclude there was no reasonable
    probability the sentence would have been different if the
    sentencing judge . . . had heard the significant mitigation
    evidence that [Kayer’s] counsel neither uncovered nor
    KAYER V. RYAN                         59
    presented.” Porter v. McCollum, 
    558 U.S. 30
    , 31 (2009) (per
    curiam) (stating prejudice standard for ineffective assistance
    of counsel in an AEDPA case). “We do not require a
    defendant to show ‘that counsel’s deficient conduct more
    likely than not altered the outcome’ of his penalty proceeding,
    but rather that he establish ‘a probability sufficient to
    undermine confidence in [that] outcome.’” 
    Id. at 44
    (alteration in original) (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    693–94).
    The State argues that we must accord special deference to
    the PCR court’s holding that Kayer suffered no prejudice
    because the judge who presided over the PCR proceedings
    was also the original sentencing judge. The State is incorrect.
    We assess prejudice independent of the particular judge or
    judges, as made clear by the Supreme Court in Strickland:
    The assessment of prejudice should proceed
    on the assumption that the decisionmaker
    is reasonably, conscientiously, and
    impartially applying the standards that
    govern the decision. It should not depend
    on the idiosyncracies of the particular
    decisionmaker, such as unusual propensities
    toward harshness or leniency.
    
    466 U.S. at 695
    . A post-conviction court must assess whether
    there is a reasonable possibility that
    the sentencer—including an appellate court,
    to the extent it independently reweighs the
    60                    KAYER V. RYAN
    evidence—would have concluded that the
    balance of the aggravating and mitigating
    factors did not warrant death.
    
    Id.
    “[T]he test for prejudice is an objective one.” White v.
    Ryan, 
    895 F.3d 641
    , 670 (9th Cir. 2018). In White, we
    faulted the prejudice determination by the PCR court because
    that “court determined whether it would have imposed a
    death penalty if it had considered the mitigation evidence that
    [defendant] failed to present [at the penalty phase].” 
    Id.
    (emphasis in original). We further faulted it for failing to
    take into account the fact that the Arizona Supreme Court was
    required to independently weigh the aggravating and
    mitigating circumstances: “The PCR court erred by . . .
    fail[ing] to consider the probability of a different outcome in
    the Arizona Supreme Court.” Id. at 671. See also Mann v.
    Ryan, 
    828 F.3d 1143
    , 1167 (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc)
    (Thomas, C.J., concurring and dissenting) (“[T]he post-
    conviction court was not excused from its obligation to apply
    Strickland because the same judge presided over both [the
    defendant’s] trial and post-conviction proceeding, and that
    judge concluded that the newly introduced evidence would
    not have changed his mind.” (emphasis in original)).
    For a number of reasons, we conclude that the addition of
    the statutory mitigating circumstance of mental impairment
    could have changed the outcome of the sentencing
    proceeding. In the words of the Supreme Court, the addition
    of this mitigating circumstance created a “reasonable
    probability the sentence would have been different,” Porter,
    
    558 U.S. at 31
    , “sufficient to undermine confidence in the
    outcome,” 
    id. at 44
     (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at
    693–94),
    KAYER V. RYAN                         61
    and it was unreasonable for the state court to conclude
    otherwise.
    First, there was a substantial difference between the
    evidence submitted at sentencing and the evidence later
    submitted to the PCR court. In the sentencing court, there
    was evidence supporting two statutory aggravating
    circumstances and one weak non-statutory mitigating
    circumstance. In the PCR court, there were the same two
    statutory aggravators. But now there was an additional
    mitigator—for the first time, the statutory mitigator of mental
    impairment—where previously there had only been one weak
    non-statutory mitigator.
    Second, Kayer’s mental impairment had a direct causal
    relationship to the crime, and would have been given
    substantial weight at sentencing. In McKinney v. Ryan,
    
    813 F.3d 798
     (9th Cir. 2015) (en banc), we held that the
    Arizona Supreme Court had for many years violated Eddings
    v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982), by refusing, as a matter of
    law, to give any weight to would-be mitigating circumstances
    such as mental impairment unless they had a “causal nexus”
    to the crime of conviction. In State v. Anderson, 
    111 P.3d 369
     (Ariz. 2005), the Arizona Supreme Court finally
    abandoned the causal nexus test.
    In post-Anderson cases, Arizona courts have considered
    a broad range of mitigating circumstances. Mitigating
    circumstances that are causally connected to the crime have
    been given greater weight than circumstances with no causal
    nexus. The Arizona Supreme Court wrote in 2006, “We do
    not require that a nexus between the mitigating factors and
    the crime be established before we consider the mitigation
    evidence [but] the failure to establish such a causal
    62                    KAYER V. RYAN
    connection may be considered in assessing the quality and
    strength of the mitigation evidence.” State v. Newell,
    
    132 P.3d 833
    , 849 (Ariz. 2006); see also, e.g., State v.
    Velazquez, 
    166 P.3d 91
    , 106 (Ariz. 2007) (“This mitigating
    circumstance [of drug and alcohol abuse] was proven by a
    preponderance of the evidence, but Velazquez did not
    establish that he was under the influence of drugs or alcohol
    at the time of the murder.”); State v. Pandeli, 
    161 P.3d 557
    ,
    575 (Ariz. 2007) (“Pandeli’s difficult childhood and extensive
    sexual abuse, while compelling, are not causally connected to
    the crime. . . . We do not give this mitigating evidence
    significant weight.”).
    Kayer’s mental impairment under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1) was causally connected to the crime and
    would therefore have been given substantial weight. The
    testimony of Drs. Sucher and Morenz made abundantly clear
    the causal connection between Kayer’s mental problems and
    the crime. Dr. Sucher specifically referred to Kayer’s
    “untreated alcoholism and untreated pathological gambling”
    at the time of the crime. Indeed, Kayer had been drinking
    heavily on the day of the killing, and Kayer killed the victim
    in order to obtain funds to continue gambling. Dr. Morenz
    specifically connected the crime to Kayer’s “problems with
    bipolar disorder symptoms,” his difficulties with “out of
    control pathological gambling” and “extensive alcohol
    abuse,” and his “heart attack . . . suffered a few weeks before
    the murder.” Keith Rohman, the mitigation expert who
    testified in the PCR court, connected these factors to the
    crime, characterizing them as a “perfect storm.”
    Third, the aggravating circumstances supporting
    imposition of the death sentence were not overwhelming.
    The sentencing judge had specifically rejected the
    KAYER V. RYAN                        63
    prosecution’s argument for the aggravating circumstance that
    Haas had not been killed in “an especially heinous, cruel or
    depraved manner” under 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (F)(6).
    Further, one of the two aggravating circumstances found by
    the Arizona Supreme Court was relatively weak. The
    “serious crime” of which Kayer had previously been
    convicted was first degree burglary, one of the less serious
    crimes specified in 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (H). Indeed, all
    of the prior crimes of which Kayer had been convicted were
    property crimes. He had never been charged with, let alone
    convicted of, a crime in which he had physically harmed
    anyone. See State v. Hyde, 
    921 P.2d 655
    , 687 (Ariz. 1996)
    (“We . . . find that defendant’s non-violent past is a non-
    statutory mitigating circumstance.”).
    Fourth, a comparison to other Arizona cases shows that
    there is a reasonable probability that Kayer would not have
    been sentenced to death if the mitigating evidence presented
    to the PCR court had been presented to the sentencing court.
    Cases in which the Arizona Supreme Court has imposed the
    death penalty typically involve extreme behavior by the
    defendant. Kayer’s case is unlike these cases. For example,
    in State v. Cruz, 
    672 P.2d 470
     (Ariz. 1983), defendant and
    two accomplices robbed a married couple and the wife’s
    mother. They bound the victims together on a bed, gagged
    them, and shot all three in the head. They cut the throat of
    one of the three victims. In State v. Chaney, 
    686 P.2d 1265
    (Ariz. 1984), the defendant fired at least thirty shots with a
    high-powered automatic rifle at a deputy sheriff while he sat
    in a vehicle. One shot almost severed the deputy’s arm.
    Another shot was fired at such close range that it left powder
    burns on his body. In State v. Fisher, 
    686 P.2d 750
     (Ariz.
    1984), the defendant, in order to keep $500 in rent money he
    had collected for the seventy-three-year-old victim, shattered
    64                    KAYER V. RYAN
    her skull with three blows with a claw hammer. In State v.
    Roscoe, 
    700 P.2d 1312
     (Ariz. 1984), the defendant kidnapped
    the victim, raped her vaginally and orally, strangled her, and
    left her body in the desert.
    Several cases in which the Arizona Supreme Court has
    reversed a death penalty imposed by the trial court are similar
    to Kayer’s case. For example, in State v. Stevens, 
    764 P.2d 724
     (Ariz. 1988), the defendant robbed two people, shooting
    and killing one of them. An aggravating circumstance was
    killing for pecuniary gain. A mitigating circumstance was
    mental impairment resulting from drug use. On de novo
    review, the Arizona Supreme Court imposed a life sentence.
    In State v. Rockwell, 
    775 P.2d 1069
     (Ariz. 1989), defendant
    stole money from the cash register at a truck stop and killed
    an employee by shooting him in the back of the head. An
    aggravating circumstance was killing for pecuniary gain. A
    mitigating circumstance was a motorcycle accident when the
    defendant was seventeen-years-old, causing “violent and
    unpredictable behavior.” 
    Id. at 1079
    . On de novo review, the
    Arizona Supreme Court imposed a life sentence.
    The Arizona Supreme Court case most closely on point is
    State v. Brookover, 
    601 P.2d 1322
     (Ariz. 1979). Defendant
    Brookover had agreed to buy 750 pounds of marijuana from
    the victim. When the marijuana was delivered, Brookover
    shot the victim in order to avoid paying for it. “The victim
    fell to the floor moaning and asked the defendant what he had
    done. The defendant said ‘Don’t worry . . . it will be over
    soon’ and shot him once more in the back,” killing him. 
    Id. at 1323
    . As in Kayer’s case, the prosecutor had argued for
    the statutory aggravator that the murder had been committed
    in “an especially heinous, cruel or depraved manner,” but the
    Court rejected the argument. 
    Id. at 1325
    . An aggravating
    KAYER V. RYAN                        65
    circumstance was that Brookover had previously been
    convicted of an offense “for which . . . a sentence of life
    imprisonment or death was imposable.” 
    Id. at 1323
    . The one
    mitigating circumstance was mental impairment. The
    Arizona Supreme Court set aside the death penalty that had
    been imposed by the trial court:
    We believe that the defendant’s mental
    condition was not only a mitigating factor, but
    a major and contributing cause of his conduct
    which was “sufficiently substantial” to
    outweigh the aggravating factor of
    defendant’s prior conviction. Under the
    circumstances, leniency is mandated.
    
    Id. at 1326
     (emphasis added).
    The parallels between Brookover and Kayer’s case are
    striking. In neither case was the killing committed in “an
    especially heinous, cruel or depraved manner.” In both cases,
    the one mitigating circumstance was the statutory mitigator
    of mental impairment. In both cases, the killings were for
    pecuniary gain. In 1979, pecuniary gain had not yet been
    applied as a statutory mitigator beyond killings for hire, but
    a year later the Arizona Supreme Court recognized that the
    mitigator covered any killing for pecuniary gain. See State v.
    Clark, 
    616 P.2d 888
    , 896 (Ariz. 1980); State v. Schad,
    
    788 P.2d 1162
    , 1170–71 (Ariz. 1989) (applying Clark to a
    murder that took place in 1978, a year before Brookover:
    “Clark . . . merely recognized the pre-existing scope of
    present law.”). Finally, in both cases, there was a statutory
    aggravator for prior conviction of a serious offense.
    However, when Brookover was sentenced, the statutory
    aggravator required that the conviction have been for a crime
    66                    KAYER V. RYAN
    for which the death penalty or life imprisonment could be
    imposed. In Kayer’s case, the statutory aggravator required
    less. It required only a conviction for a “serious crime,”
    which in Kayer’s case was first degree burglary. On de novo
    review of the evidence and sentence, the Arizona Supreme
    Court sentenced Brookover to life imprisonment rather than
    death. The Court held that leniency was “mandated.”
    Brookover, 
    601 P.2d at 1326
    .
    In determining prejudice, we need not go so far as
    Brookover. We need not decide that leniency was
    “mandated” and that the state PCR court was unreasonable in
    concluding otherwise. We need only decide whether “it was
    objectively unreasonable” for the state court to conclude that
    there was “no reasonable probability” that Kayer’s sentence
    would have been different if Kayer’s attorneys had presented
    to the sentencing court the mitigating evidence later presented
    to the PCR court. Porter, 
    558 U.S. at 31
    . In light of the
    foregoing, and particularly in light of the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s decision in Brookover, we hold that there is a
    reasonable probability Kayer’s sentence would have been less
    than death, and that the state PCR court was unreasonable in
    concluding otherwise.
    (iii) Disagreement with the Dissent
    Our dissenting colleague concludes that we have not
    given sufficient deference to the decisions of the Arizona
    state court in this case. We recognize, as does our dissenting
    colleague, that the standard under AEDPA is “highly
    deferential” and “difficult to meet.” Harrington v. Richter,
    
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102, 105 (2011) (citations omitted). The
    standard is indeed high. As stated by the Supreme Court, the
    precise standard in an ineffective assistance of counsel case
    KAYER V. RYAN                         67
    is that in order to set aside a state-court death sentence based
    on new evidence, we must hold that the new evidence created
    a “reasonable probability the sentence would have been
    different,” and that the state court unreasonably determined
    otherwise. Porter, 
    558 U.S. at 31
    .
    Our colleague makes two related points. We respectfully
    disagree with both of them.
    First, our colleague contends that the Supreme Court’s
    decision in Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
     (2002) (per
    curiam), effectively determines the outcome in this case.
    Visciotti cannot bear the weight our colleague places on it.
    In Visciotti, defense counsel failed to perform an adequate
    penalty-phase investigation. On state habeas, extensive new
    mitigation evidence that defense counsel had not identified
    was presented to a referee appointed by the California
    Supreme Court. That Court engaged in a detailed analysis of
    the new evidence and concluded that the failure to present
    that evidence at sentencing did not prejudice Visciotti. In re
    Visciotti, 
    926 P.2d 987
     (Cal. 1996). Our court held that the
    California Supreme Court had unreasonably concluded that
    the new evidence did not establish a “reasonable probability”
    of a different result at sentencing. Visciotti v. Woodford,
    
    288 F.3d 1097
    , 1117–19 (9th Cir. 2002). The Supreme Court
    reversed, emphasizing the care with which the California
    Supreme Court had analyzed the new evidence and holding
    that the Court was not “objectively unreasonable” in finding
    no prejudice.
    The facts in the two cases are similar, though, as our
    colleague recognizes, they were somewhat less favorable to
    Visciotti than they are to Kayer. But the cases arise in very
    68                     KAYER V. RYAN
    different contexts. First, and most obviously, in our case we
    ask what an Arizona rather than a California sentencing court
    would have done. This is important because the statutes,
    procedures, and case law in the two jurisdictions are different.
    Second, in Visciotti there was a reasoned decision by the
    California Supreme Court, but in our case there was no
    reasoned decision by the Arizona Supreme Court. This is
    critically important, given the Arizona capital sentencing
    scheme at the time. Under Arizona law, the Arizona Supreme
    Court was the ultimate sentencing court. On mandatory
    direct appeal from a sentencing court, the Arizona Supreme
    Court reviewed the evidence de novo and decided
    independently whether to impose the death penalty. See, e.g.,
    Kayer, 
    984 P.2d at
    40–41.
    In determining prejudice, therefore, we look to how the
    Arizona Supreme Court would have assessed the new
    evidence presented to the PCR court if that evidence had been
    presented on direct appeal. We do not know how the Arizona
    Supreme Court in Kayer’s case would have assessed on direct
    appeal the evidence presented to the PCR court because that
    evidence was not then in the record. Nor do we know how
    the Arizona Supreme Court would have assessed that
    evidence on collateral review because the Court denied
    without explanation Kayer’s petition for review. The best we
    can do is look at de novo sentencing decisions by the Arizona
    Supreme Court in comparable cases. Those cases are the best
    evidence of what the Court would have done if the new
    mitigating evidence had been presented in Kayer’s direct
    appeal.
    Second, our colleague contends that we have not given
    appropriate deference to the decision of the state PCR judge.
    The PCR judge was also the sentencing judge. However,
    KAYER V. RYAN                        69
    “[t]he assessment of prejudice . . . should not depend on the
    idiosyncracies of the particular decisionmaker[.]” Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 695
    . “[T]he test for prejudice is an objective
    one.” White v. Ryan, 
    895 F.3d 641
    , 670 (9th Cir. 2018). The
    question is thus not what the PCR judge would have done in
    light of the new evidence. The question, rather, is what the
    ultimate sentencing authority, the Arizona Supreme Court,
    would have done. We therefore must ask whether the PCR
    judge was unreasonable in concluding that there was no
    “reasonable probability” of a different result in the Arizona
    Supreme Court if that Court had had before it the evidence
    presented to the PCR court.
    Unless we are to engage in sheer guesswork, the only way
    to determine what the Arizona Supreme Court would have
    done in light of Kayer’s new evidence is to look at what that
    Court has done in comparable cases. We describe, above,
    several decisions of that Court. One of them, Brookover, is
    on all fours with Kayer’s case. The only difference is that
    one of the statutory aggravators was stronger in Brookover.
    The Arizona Supreme Court held in Brookover that leniency
    was “mandated.”
    Our colleague refuses to acknowledge the striking
    parallels between Brookover and Kayer’s case, writing only:
    “The majority’s reliance on State v. Brookover, 
    601 P.2d 1322
     (Ariz. 1979), a forty-year-old case, ignores what the
    state court did in this case.” Diss. Op. at 75 (emphasis
    added). Our colleague maintains that we can safely ignore
    Brookover because of its age (“a forty-year-old case”).
    Our colleague misses the fact that when the Arizona
    Supreme Court reviewed Kayer’s sentence de novo on direct
    appeal, Brookover had been decided only twenty (not forty)
    70                    KAYER V. RYAN
    years earlier. The Arizona Supreme Court in capital cases
    routinely cites and treats as binding precedent its own
    decisions from twenty years (and more) before. See, e.g.,
    State v. Hedlund, 
    431 P.3d 181
    , 190 (Ariz. 2018) (discussing
    and distinguishing State v. Graham, 
    660 P.2d 460
     (Ariz.
    1983); State v. Trostle, 
    951 P.2d 869
    , 885 (Ariz. 1997)
    (discussing and relying on State v. Richmond, 
    560 P.2d 41
    ,
    52–53 (Ariz. 1976)). See also State v. Stuard, 
    863 P.2d 881
    ,
    902 (Ariz. 1993) (citing, inter alia, State v. Doss, 
    568 P.2d 1054
    , 1060 (Ariz. 1977), and writing, “Leniency is therefore
    required”). Nothing in the practice of the Arizona Supreme
    Court suggests that when it sentenced Kayer de novo in 1999,
    it would have treated as less-than-binding a twenty-year-old
    precedent. In that precedent— Brookover—the Arizona
    Supreme Court had held, on facts less favorable to the
    defendant than those in Kayer’s case, that a non-capital
    sentence was “mandated.” Given Brookover’s holding that
    “leniency” was “mandated,” it was unreasonable for the PCR
    judge to conclude that in Kayer’s case there was no
    “reasonable probability” that the Arizona Supreme Court on
    direct appeal would have imposed a non-capital sentence.
    IV. Other Certified Claims
    Kayer asserts two additional certified claims with which
    we may deal fairly quickly.
    A. Continuance
    Kayer argues that the sentencing court violated his Sixth
    Amendment rights by acceding to his objection to a
    continuation of his sentencing hearing. He argues that the
    court should have disregarded his objection and instead
    granted his attorneys’ request for a continuance. In light of
    KAYER V. RYAN                         71
    our holding, above, that the sentencing court unreasonably
    concluded that Kayer’s attorneys performed effectively and,
    in the alternative, if they performed ineffectively, that Kayer
    suffered no prejudice, we need not reach the question whether
    the court acted properly in denying the continuance.
    B. Martinez
    Kayer seeks to revive several procedurally barred guilt-
    phase ineffective assistance of counsel claims by showing
    cause and prejudice under Martinez v. Ryan, 
    566 U.S. 1
    (2012). Post-conviction counsel’s ineffectiveness in failing
    to raise a meritorious ineffective assistance of counsel claim
    may constitute “cause” sufficient to overcome a procedural
    bar. 
    Id. at 17
    . To prevail, the petitioner must show that
    (1) post-conviction counsel performed deficiently,
    (2) effective counsel might have changed the result of the
    post-conviction proceedings, and (3) the underlying
    ineffectiveness claim was substantial. Pizzuto v. Ramirez,
    
    783 F.3d 1171
    , 1178–79 (9th Cir. 2015). An evidentiary
    hearing is appropriate if “such a hearing could enable an
    applicant to prove the petition’s factual allegations, which, if
    true, would entitle the applicant to federal habeas relief.”
    Runningeagle v. Ryan, 
    825 F.3d 970
    , 990 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (quoting Schriro v. Landrigan, 
    550 U.S. 465
    , 474 (2007)).
    Kayer sought to revive several claims in the district court
    and seeks to revive them here. The district court held that
    none of the claims was substantial in the sense necessary to
    support a finding of cause and prejudice under Martinez.
    Upon review of the evidence, we agree with the district court.
    72                    KAYER V. RYAN
    V. Uncertified Claims
    Kayer seeks certification of two claims that the district
    court declined to certify. We also decline to certify these
    claims.
    Conclusion
    We reverse the decision of the district court with respect
    to ineffective assistance of counsel at the penalty phase. We
    otherwise affirm.
    We remand to the district court with instructions to grant
    the writ with respect to the penalty phase unless the State,
    within a reasonable period, grants Kayer a rehearing with
    respect to the penalty or vacates the sentence of death and
    imposes a lesser sentence consistent with the law.
    REVERSED in part, AFFIRMED in part, and
    REMANDED with instructions.
    OWENS, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and dissenting in
    part:
    While I agree with much of the majority’s decision, I part
    ways as to its conclusion that we must reverse Kayer’s death
    sentence. I cannot say that the Arizona PCR court acted
    unreasonably regarding prejudice in light of the aggravating
    and mitigating circumstances in this case.
    The AEDPA standard is “highly deferential” and
    “difficult to meet.” Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102,
    KAYER V. RYAN                          73
    105 (2011) (citations omitted). The petitioner must show that
    the state court’s decision was “so lacking in justification that
    there was an error well understood and comprehended in
    existing law beyond any possibility for fairminded
    disagreement.” 
    Id. at 103
    . In other words, AEDPA
    “demands that state-court decisions be given the benefit of
    the doubt.” Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 24 (2002)
    (per curiam).
    The majority concludes that the aggravating factors
    supporting imposition of Kayer’s death sentence were “not
    overwhelming.” Majority Opinion 62. It focuses on the prior
    serious offense aggravating factor as being “relatively weak,”
    Majority Opinion 57, 63, but overlooks the strength of the
    pecuniary gain aggravating factor. For that aggravator, the
    defendant must have a financial “motive, cause, or impetus”
    for the murder. State v. Kayer, 
    984 P.2d 31
    , 41 (Ariz. 1999)
    (citation omitted). There is no dispute that Kayer had a
    financial motive for killing Haas, doing so for a mere few
    hundred dollars’ worth of cash and other items. See State v.
    Soto-Fong, 
    928 P.2d 610
    , 632 (Ariz. 1996) (“Pecuniary gain
    does not focus on whether the defendants were effective or
    thorough robbers, but on whether their motive was financial
    gain.”).
    Moreover, the crime here was brutal, even if it did not rise
    to the level of “especially heinous, cruel or depraved.” Kayer
    decided to rob and kill Haas, and the next day shot Haas in
    the head at point-blank range during a remote bathroom stop
    on their drive home from a gambling trip. Kayer took Haas’s
    wallet, watch, and jewelry. Kayer left Haas in the bushes and
    drove away, but turned around upon realizing he had
    forgotten to take Haas’s keys to loot his house. Kayer
    74                    KAYER V. RYAN
    returned to the murder scene, retrieved the keys, and shot
    Haas in the head again because he did not appear to be dead.
    These facts are remarkably similar to Visciotti, where the
    U.S. Supreme Court reversed our grant of habeas relief.
    537 U.S. at 20. There, in a preplanned armed robbery, the
    defendant and his co-worker shot two co-workers as they all
    drove to a party and made a remote bathroom stop (one
    victim died and one survived). Id. The defendant was
    sentenced to death. Id. At the PCR stage, the California
    Supreme Court determined that the defendant had not been
    prejudiced by his counsel’s failure to introduce mitigating
    evidence about his background. Id. at 21. In particular, the
    California Supreme Court concluded that the mitigating
    evidence was outweighed by “the circumstances of the crime
    (a cold-blooded execution-style killing of one victim and
    attempted execution-style killing of another, both during the
    course of a preplanned armed robbery) coupled with the
    aggravating evidence of prior offenses (the knifing of one
    man, and the stabbing of a pregnant woman as she lay in bed
    trying to protect her unborn baby).” Id. at 26. We held that
    decision was objectively unreasonable and granted habeas
    relief. Id. at 21–22.
    The U.S. Supreme Court reversed, stating that we had
    impermissibly “substituted [our] own judgment for that of the
    state court, in contravention of” AEDPA. Id. at 25.
    Likewise, here, the majority impermissibly substitutes its own
    judgment that Kayer was prejudiced. Granted, the prior
    offenses in Visciotti were more serious than Kayer’s prior
    burglary conviction. However, the “federal habeas scheme
    leaves primary responsibility with the state courts for these
    judgments, and authorizes federal-court intervention only
    when a state-court decision is objectively unreasonable. It is
    KAYER V. RYAN                         75
    not that here.” Id. at 27. The majority contends that Visciotti
    is different because it took place in California, involved a
    PCR decision by the state supreme court, and Arizona had a
    distinct capital sentencing scheme at the time. Majority
    Opinion 67–68. But those differences do not excuse AEDPA
    deference to the Arizona PCR court’s decision here. See
    Schriro v. Landrigan, 
    550 U.S. 465
    , 473 (2007) (reversing
    Ninth Circuit in an Arizona capital case, and noting that
    “[t]he question under AEDPA is not whether a federal court
    believes the state court’s determination was incorrect but
    whether that determination was unreasonable—a substantially
    higher threshold”).
    Further, Kayer’s mitigation—mental illness, and
    gambling and alcohol addiction—was hardly overwhelming;
    we have denied habeas relief based on far worse mitigating
    facts than this one. See, e.g., Apelt v. Ryan, 
    878 F.3d 800
    ,
    815–16 (9th Cir. 2017) (denying habeas relief even though
    trial counsel failed to uncover mitigating evidence that the
    defendant grew up very poor, had an alcoholic and violent
    father who beat his children with an iron rod, was raped twice
    as a child, and suffered from mental illness); Cain v.
    Chappell, 
    870 F.3d 1003
    , 1021 (9th Cir. 2017) (denying
    habeas relief despite new mitigating evidence that the
    defendant was severely beaten and punished by his
    stepmother, had an untreated childhood head injury, and had
    learning disabilities).
    Here, we have an undisputedly strong aggravating factor,
    an arguably weak one, and some mitigation, all of which the
    Arizona PCR court reviewed. The majority’s reliance on
    State v. Brookover, 
    601 P.2d 1322
     (Ariz. 1979), a forty-year-
    old case, ignores what the state court did in this case. The
    U.S. Supreme Court has warned us again and again not to
    76                    KAYER V. RYAN
    intrude on state court death sentences unless “so lacking in
    justification” as to give rise to constitutional error “beyond
    any possibility for fairminded disagreement.” Richter,
    
    562 U.S. at 103
    . I fear that we have done so again, so I
    respectfully dissent.