Hooman Panah v. Kevin Chappell , 935 F.3d 657 ( 2019 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    HOOMAN ASHKAN PANAH,                     No. 13-99010
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                      2:05-cv-07606-
    RGK
    KEVIN CHAPPELL, Warden of
    California State Prison at San
    Quentin,                                   OPINION
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Central District of California
    R. Gary Klausner, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted June 26, 2019
    Pasadena, California
    Filed August 21, 2019
    Before: Kim McLane Wardlaw, Jacqueline H. Nguyen,
    and John B. Owens, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Owens
    2                      PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    SUMMARY *
    Habeas Corpus
    The panel affirmed the district court’s denial of Hooman
    Panah’s habeas corpus petition challenging his State of
    California conviction and sentence for the first-degree
    murder and sexual assault of an eight-year-old girl.
    The district court granted a certificate of appealability as
    to Panah’s claim brought pursuant to Napue v. Illinois, 
    360 U.S. 264
     (1959), in which Panah, relying on post-conviction
    DNA reports, contended that he was prejudiced by the
    State’s presentation of serology testimony which, he argued,
    the State knew was false and misleading. The panel held that
    the California Supreme Court reasonably rejected this claim.
    The panel held that even assuming there was no reasonable
    basis for the state court to deny the claim as to the first two
    Napue requirements – that the testimony was false or
    misleading, and that the State knew or should have known
    that – the panel could not say that it would be unreasonable
    to conclude that the testimony did not satisfy the third
    requirement – materiality. Observing that even setting aside
    the serology testimony, the case against Panah was
    devastating, the panel held that the California Supreme
    Court would not have erred in finding no reasonable
    likelihood that the testimony could have affected the verdict.
    The panel expanded the certificate of appealability to
    encompass Panah’s claim that his trial counsel rendered
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                       3
    ineffective assistance by failing to conduct a reasonable
    investigation and therefore not rebutting the State’s serology
    and pathology evidence. The panel expressed concern with
    counsel’s lack of pre-trial investigation, but held that even
    assuming counsel’s performance was deficient, it could not
    say – in light of the overwhelming evidence of Panah’s guilt
    and the deference owed the state court judgment – that the
    California Supreme Court would have erred in finding no
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different.
    COUNSEL
    Joseph A. Trigilio (argued), Mark R. Drozdowski, and Susel
    B. Carrillo-Orellana, Deputy Federal Public Defenders;
    Hilary Potashner, Federal Public Defender; Office of the
    Federal Public Defender, Los Angeles, California; Firdaus
    F. Dordi, Los Angeles, California; for Petitioner-Appellant.
    Toni R. Johns Estaville (argued), Ana R. Duarte, A. Scott
    Hayward, and Dana M. Ali, Deputy Attorneys General;
    Lance E. Winters, Senior Assistant Attorney General;
    Gerald A. Engler, Chief Assistant Attorney General; Xavier
    Becerra, Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General,
    Los Angeles, California; for Respondent-Appellee.
    4                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    OPINION
    OWENS, Circuit Judge:
    California state prisoner Hooman Panah appeals from
    the district court’s denial of his habeas corpus petition
    challenging his conviction and sentence for the first-degree
    murder and sexual assault of eight-year-old Nicole Parker.
    We have jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
    , and we affirm.
    In the early afternoon of November 20, 1993, Parker
    went missing from her father’s apartment complex, where
    Panah also lived with his mother. While searching for her in
    the complex, Parker’s father knocked on Panah’s door and
    asked if Panah had seen her. Panah responded something
    like, “oh, is she missing.” He then offered to help Parker’s
    father look for her, “persistent[ly]” suggesting they search
    outside the apartment complex. Soon after, the police
    arrived and conducted a door-to-door search for Parker,
    including Panah’s apartment. The police did not find Parker
    or any clues as to her whereabouts.
    That day, Panah reported to work in the mid-afternoon.
    Around 5:30 pm, his mother, who was with two police
    officers, called Panah. The officers asked him if he knew
    Parker or had seen her that day. He responded that he knew
    her only “vaguely” and denied having seen her that day.
    Shortly after the officers’ inquiry – hours before his shift
    ended – Panah left work without telling anyone. He later
    called his manager to say that he would not return “because
    some people that he knew [were] trying to get him in trouble
    and would [his manager] please inform his mother to get out
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                      5
    of town.” Panah also paged his co-worker, Rauni Campbell,
    asking for help. He told her that he “d[id] something very
    bad,” “so big” that she would find out.
    The next morning, Panah showed up without warning at
    Campbell’s apartment. His wrists were cut, and he requested
    sleeping pills, which she helped him buy. Campbell asked
    Panah if he had anything to do with “the little girl that was
    missing from his apartment complex.” He said yes. She
    then asked him whether Parker was still alive. He said no.
    At this point, Campbell surreptitiously called the police.
    When they arrived, Panah tried to evade arrest but was
    eventually caught and taken to the hospital. At the hospital,
    under the influence of drugs and reportedly in a psychotic
    state, Panah told police, in response to questions about
    Parker, that he “liked her very much, even [to] carry her
    skeleton remains around.”
    Later that evening, the police, armed with a search
    warrant, returned to Panah’s apartment. In his bedroom
    closet, they found Parker’s naked body, wrapped in a
    bedsheet and stuffed in a suitcase. The police then gathered
    evidence from Panah’s bedroom, including examining his
    bed and Parker’s body for evidence of sexual assault.
    Panah was indicted on charges of first-degree murder
    with special circumstances alleging that the murder occurred
    during a kidnapping, sodomy, lewd acts on a person under
    fourteen years old, and oral copulation of a person under
    fourteen years old. He was also charged with the substantive
    counts of kidnapping, sodomy by force, lewd acts on a
    person under fourteen years old, penetration of genital or
    anal openings by a foreign object with a person under
    fourteen years old, and oral copulation of a person under
    fourteen years old. Panah pled not guilty.
    6                    PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    Panah was initially represented by a family friend,
    Syamak Shafi-Nia, who had limited criminal law
    experience. But prior to trial, the court appointed Robert
    Sheahen, a veteran criminal lawyer, as lead counsel, and
    allowed Shafi-Nia to stay on as second counsel. Sheahen
    had requested this appointment, promising the court that he
    would facilitate a settlement, which would “save[] a great
    deal of time and the taxpayers would be saved a great deal
    of money” by avoiding “an extremely costly trial.”
    In July 1994, several months before trial, the State
    notified the court and defense that it had ordered DNA
    testing on evidence found at the crime scene. While
    awaiting the test results in September, the court urged
    Sheahen to “find a DNA expert to assist you” and “see if
    there’s any basis for questioning the results.” In October,
    two months before trial, the State shared the DNA test results
    with the defense. Again, the court advised Sheahen to retain
    an expert, to which Sheahen responded, “That will be taken
    care of.”
    However, as trial approached, the State decided not to
    introduce the DNA evidence. The court pressed defense
    counsel why he had not yet independently tested the DNA.
    Counsel explained that doing so “would put us in the
    position of confirming the prosecution results,” and that he
    instead planned to argue that the State’s “failure to do DNA
    testing should be held against” them. The court approved of
    this strategy, calling counsel’s “tactics . . . very sound in this
    particular case.”
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                        7
    Panah’s trial began on December 5, 1994. With jury
    selection set to begin, Sheahen notified the court that Shafi-
    Nia was no longer able to serve as second counsel but did
    not request a continuance. Accordingly, Panah began jury
    selection with just one lawyer. Shortly after, the court
    appointed new second counsel to replace Shafi-Nia, but
    second counsel was required to familiarize himself with the
    case during trial.
    The State’s theory was felony murder. It emphasized the
    abundance of circumstantial evidence against Panah and
    focused on “Parker’s body bloody and battered,” which was
    “tied up in a sheet inside a zipped suitcase” in Panah’s closet.
    It also highlighted Panah’s incriminating behavior soon after
    Parker went missing, including that Panah was “anxious” to
    encourage Parker’s father to search outside the apartment
    complex; “had fled” work hours before his shift ended after
    receiving a call about Parker from his mother and police; and
    made numerous admissions about his involvement in
    Parker’s murder. Panah’s manager and Campbell testified
    about his statements on the day of and after Parker’s
    disappearance.
    The State also presented forensic evidence as part of its
    case-in-chief.
    The coroner, Dr. Heuser, testified that Parker’s physical
    injuries occurred premortem. Describing the violent nature
    of the assault, she explained that Parker suffered “blunt
    force” injuries, including bruising on her forehead, eye,
    8                         PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    neck, lip, arms, and buttocks; scratches on her inner thighs;
    and brain swelling. Dr. Heuser also testified to Parker’s
    sexual assault injuries. Parker had bruising, as well as signs
    of bleeding and tears, in the vaginal and rectal areas. Her
    vaginal opening was “very widely” open – most likely
    consistent with digital penetration. Her anal opening was
    also “widely open and very lax looking,” “consistent with
    the insertion of a penis into her rectum.”
    Dr. Heuser also testified that Parker’s death was due to
    “traumatic injuries,” either the result of “manual
    strangulation” or force to Parker’s rectum.
    Serologist William Moore testified about stains found on
    three items in Panah’s bedroom: (1) the bedsheet Parker was
    wrapped in, (2) a robe found on Panah’s bed, 1 and (3) a
    tissue from a wastebasket in Panah’s bathroom.
    Preliminarily, Moore noted that Panah’s blood type was B
    and Parker’s was A. Because his testing discovered that
    stains on each item contained a mixture of A and B antigens,
    Moore posited that this was consistent with a mixture of
    Parker’s and Panah’s bodily fluids and thus sexual contact
    between them.
    As to the bedsheet, Moore described the stains as
    “indicative of a mixture of physiological fluids” – blood,
    semen, and amylase (a constituent of saliva and other bodily
    fluids) – that included both A and B antigens. Because the
    bloodstain was “consistent” with Parker’s type A blood, he
    surmised the other stains were consistent with semen from
    Panah and saliva from Parker. He also noted that the pattern
    1
    The district court’s opinion calls the robe a kimono.
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                              9
    of the stains “could . . . be consistent with the spewing of
    semen across the bed sheet.”
    Moore similarly testified that the tissue “bore semen
    stains, and high amylase activity,” likely from a mix of
    Parker’s and Panah’s bodily fluids. Again, he remarked that
    this stain “could be consistent with the product of an oral
    copulation.” Lastly, he testified that Panah’s robe had a
    large stain with a mix of A and B antigens. Because the
    robe’s bloodstain was consistent with Parker, he
    hypothesized that the B antigens came from Panah’s saliva.
    Moore also briefly testified about evidence collected
    from the sexual assault examination, although he did not
    conduct it. He acknowledged that the oral and anal swabs
    had not produced any signs of semen, nor was “the presence
    of semen conclusively” found anywhere on Parker’s body.
    On cross-examination, Moore admitted that he could not
    “establish any certainty” that either Parker or Panah was a
    contributor to the stains because of the relatively high
    statistical frequency of the A and B antigens matching other
    people. Moore further testified that his theory would not
    bear out if the A and B antigens on the three items came from
    one person with AB blood type. 2
    The defense consisted of testimony from Dr. John
    Palmer, the emergency room doctor who treated Panah the
    day after Parker went missing, and several character
    witnesses. Dr. Palmer reported that Panah was “acutely
    2
    After the State presented its case, the court granted the defense’s
    motion for acquittal on the substantive charges of kidnapping and the
    special circumstance allegation of kidnapping.
    10                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    psychotic” and suicidal when brought into the emergency
    room that day.
    The State summarized its evidence: “We have blood
    typing that matches. We have the body in his suitcase in his
    closet, and we have statements he makes that show
    knowledge before the body was found. We have his
    involvement in the crime clearly established.” The State
    focused on where Parker’s body was found: “You have a
    body in his closet, in his suitcase. There isn’t a whole lot
    more you need to do after that in terms of looking and
    investigating outside of the obvious, which is that Mr. Panah
    is the person involved.” It also focused on Panah’s
    statements after Parker went missing: “Those aren’t crazed
    remarks. Those are the remarks of an individual who is
    telling exactly what happened.” The State then reminded the
    jury of Moore’s testimony, arguing it was “not a harebrained
    prosecution theory.” It particularly used his testimony to
    prove the alleged oral copulation:
    We think the evidence that was presented to
    you is very consistent with the fact that he
    ejaculated in her mouth, that he allowed her
    to spit it out in a Kleenex, because we have
    the evidence of semen of his blood type, high
    amylase content, indicating a saliva which
    matches her blood type on the Kleenex, as
    well as having a spattering on the bed sheet
    of a mixture of semen and saliva – again the
    high amylase indicating saliva – of his type B
    and her type A.
    It also said that “the one possible inference that can be
    drawn” from Moore’s testimony about the robe is that the B
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                        11
    antigens came from “the saliva of the defendant” during the
    sodomy.
    Acknowledging that none of this was “conclusive
    evidence,” the State argued that, “when taken with
    everything else[, this] would indicate that there had been an
    act of oral copulation, that there was ejaculate in Nicole
    Parker’s mouth.” The State also responded to the defense’s
    assertion that its case was weak because of the lack of DNA,
    claiming that DNA testing is “usually ordered in a situation
    where you don’t have other types of proof available. In this
    situation we have the proof available.”
    In its closing, the defense questioned the reliability of the
    serology evidence, calling Moore’s theory “hogwash,” and
    insisted that the stains proved nothing. Rather, counsel
    highlighted the lack of DNA evidence, which “could tell us
    who’s the source of this stuff . . . [and] whether it, in fact,
    could be traced to the deceased or whether it could be traced
    to any number of other people.”
    The jury convicted Panah of first-degree murder and the
    other felonies. The jury also found true the special
    circumstance allegations that the murder was committed
    while engaged in the crime of sodomy and lewd acts on a
    person under the age of fourteen. The jury did not find true
    the special circumstance allegation that the murder occurred
    in the commission of oral copulation. After the penalty
    phase, the jury returned a death sentence.
    On March 14, 2005, the California Supreme Court
    affirmed Panah’s conviction and sentence, People v. Panah,
    12                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    
    107 P.3d 790
     (Cal. 2005), and the United States Supreme
    Court subsequently denied certiorari, Panah v. California,
    
    546 U.S. 1216
     (2006). About a year later, the California
    Supreme Court summarily denied Panah’s first habeas
    petition. After filing a protective habeas petition in the
    District Court for the Central District of California, Panah
    filed a second state habeas petition and a first amended
    petition in the district court. The district court stayed
    proceedings during the pendency of Panah’s state habeas
    proceedings. On March 16, 2011, the California Supreme
    Court again summarily denied Panah’s second state habeas
    petition, and the district court lifted the stay on Panah’s
    federal habeas proceedings.
    In his habeas petitions, Panah provided new evidence,
    including two reports detailing post-conviction DNA testing
    on the stains that Moore testified about at trial. The first
    report (“Calandro Report”), prepared in 2004, disagreed
    with much of Moore’s testimony. But because the Calandro
    Report yielded several inconclusive results, additional
    testing was conducted two years later, leading to the second
    report (“Inman Report”).        Both reports doubted the
    foundation of Moore’s mixture theory. The Calandro Report
    called “Mr. Moore’s approach . . . biased and indefensible,”
    and the Inman Report wrote that “[n]o biological evidence
    exists to support the hypothesis that a mixture of biological
    fluids from Mr. Panah and Ms. Parker was present on the
    tissue, bedsheet, or kimono.”
    More specifically, both reports “contradict[ed]” Moore’s
    testimony about the tissue. While Moore testified that Panah
    and Parker were both possible contributors to the tissue stain,
    the reports eliminated any possibility that Parker was a
    source. On appeal to this court, the State concedes that
    Moore’s tissue testimony was false.
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                       13
    However, the post-conviction testing produced
    inconclusive results regarding the bedsheet and robe stains.
    Neither report could definitively eliminate Parker as a
    contributor to several stains on the bedsheet. While they
    conclusively found that two stains were consistent only with
    Panah, they could not conclusively rule Parker out as a
    contributor to the three other bedsheet stains. Although this
    left open the possibility that Moore’s mixture theory was
    correct, the reports opined that this at minimum refuted his
    assumption that “Ms. Parker ‘spit out’ ejaculate onto the bed
    sheet” because one would then expect to “detect Ms.
    Parker’s DNA in significant quantities on the bed sheet.” As
    for the robe, the reports agreed with Moore that the
    bloodstain was consistent with Parker’s blood type. But,
    unlike Moore’s serology testimony, they found no trace of
    Panah’s DNA on the robe.
    Panah’s habeas petitions also included declarations from
    his three trial lawyers. Each declaration acknowledged there
    had been almost no pre-trial investigation and only a limited
    penalty-phase investigation, nor were any experts retained to
    independently analyze the State’s serology and pathology
    evidence. Instead, “all of [defense counsel’s] efforts had
    gone into the aborted settlement.”
    On November 14, 2013, the district court denied Panah’s
    petition. As for Panah’s Napue v. Illinois, 
    360 U.S. 264
    (1959), claim, the district court held that, even if post-
    conviction DNA testing rendered a portion of Moore’s
    testimony false, the California Supreme Court could have
    reasonably concluded that it did not render all of the
    testimony false and that his testimony was immaterial in
    light of the other evidence. In this discussion, the district
    court also rejected Panah’s claim of ineffective assistance for
    failure to investigate the State’s forensic evidence because
    14                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    the California Supreme Court reasonably could have
    concluded that Panah was not prejudiced.
    The district court granted a certificate of appealability
    (“COA”) for Panah’s Napue claim, discussed below in
    section III. On appeal, Panah has raised a number of
    uncertified issues in his opening brief, which we treat as a
    request to expand the COA. 9th Cir. R. 22-1(e). After
    asking the State to respond to several of the uncertified
    issues, we expand the COA to encompass Panah’s guilt-
    phase ineffective assistance claim, addressed below in
    section IV, but deny Panah’s request to expand the COA as
    to the other uncertified claims. We evaluate Panah’s two
    certified claims in turn.
    We review the district court’s denial of habeas relief de
    novo. Lewis v. Mayle, 
    391 F.3d 989
    , 995 (9th Cir. 2004).
    Because Panah filed his federal habeas petition after
    April 24, 1996, it is subject to the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (“AEDPA”). See
    Murray v. Schriro, 
    745 F.3d 984
    , 996 (9th Cir. 2014). Under
    AEDPA, we may grant relief only if the adjudication
    “resulted in a decision that was contrary to, or involved an
    unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court of the United States,”
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), or “was based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding,” 
    id.
     § 2254(d)(2).
    Although we typically “look through” a summary
    disposition to the last reasoned state court decision, Ylst v.
    Nunnemaker, 
    501 U.S. 797
    , 806 (1991), here there is no
    reasoned state court decision addressing either certified
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                     15
    claim. Therefore, we independently review the record to
    determine whether the California Supreme Court had any
    reasonable basis to deny Panah relief. See Reis-Campos v.
    Biter, 
    832 F.3d 968
    , 974 (9th Cir. 2016) (citing Harrington
    v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 102 (2011)).
    Relying on the two post-conviction DNA reports, Panah
    contends that he was prejudiced by the State’s presentation
    of Moore’s serology testimony, which he argues the State
    knew was false or misleading.
    In Napue, the Supreme Court held “that a conviction
    obtained through use of false evidence, known to be such by
    representatives of the State, must fall under the Fourteenth
    Amendment.” 
    360 U.S. at 269
    . Nonetheless, a Napue claim
    succeeds only if three elements are satisfied. See United
    States v. Zuno-Arce, 
    339 F.3d 886
    , 889 (9th Cir. 2003).
    First, the testimony or evidence in question must have been
    false or misleading. See id.; see also Alcorta v. Texas,
    
    355 U.S. 28
    , 31 (1957) (considering whether “testimony,
    taken as a whole, gave the jury [a] false impression”).
    Second, the State must have known or should have known
    that it was false or misleading. See Zuno-Arce, 
    339 F.3d at 889
    ; see also Maxwell v. Roe, 
    628 F.3d 486
    , 506 (9th Cir.
    2010) (“[E]ven false evidence presented in good faith . . .
    hardly comports with fundamental fairness.” (quoting
    Killian v. Poole, 
    282 F.3d 1204
    , 1209 (9th Cir. 2002))). And
    third, because “Napue does not create a ‘per se rule of
    reversal,’” the testimony or evidence in question must be
    material. Sivak v. Hardison, 
    658 F.3d 898
    , 912 (9th Cir.
    2011) (quoting Jackson v. Brown, 
    513 F.3d 1057
    , 1076 (9th
    Cir. 2008)); see also Zuno-Arce, 
    339 F.3d at 889
    .
    16                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    Materiality under Napue requires a “lesser showing of
    harm . . . than under ordinary harmless error review.” Dow
    v. Virga, 
    729 F.3d 1041
    , 1048 (9th Cir. 2013). But, after
    weighing the effect of alleged Napue violations collectively,
    see Phillips v. Ornoski, 
    673 F.3d 1168
    , 1189 (9th Cir. 2012),
    there still needs to be a “reasonable likelihood that the false
    testimony could have affected the judgment of the jury.”
    Hayes v. Brown, 
    399 F.3d 972
    , 985 (9th Cir. 2005) (en banc)
    (quoting Belmontes v. Woodford, 
    350 F.3d 861
    , 881 (9th Cir.
    2003)). Thus, a Napue claim fails if, absent the false
    testimony or evidence, the petitioner still “received a fair
    trial, understood as a trial resulting in a verdict worthy of
    confidence.” Hayes, 
    399 F.3d at 984
     (quoting Hall v. Dir.
    of Corr., 
    343 F.3d 976
    , 984 (9th Cir. 2003) (per curiam)).
    Even if we assume there was no reasonable basis for the
    state court to deny Panah’s claim as to the first two Napue
    requirements, we cannot say that it would be unreasonable
    to conclude that Moore’s testimony was immaterial. See
    Towery v. Schriro, 
    641 F.3d 300
    , 308 (9th Cir. 2010) (not
    reviewing all three requirements because petitioner’s
    “argument fails at the second Napue prong”). The State
    presented a powerful case of Panah’s guilt, with substantial
    evidence linking him to Parker’s murder and sexual assault.
    Moore’s testimony was just one – and not a crucial – piece
    of that presentation. Because the “verdict” is still reasonably
    “worthy of confidence,” Phillips, 
    673 F.3d at 1189
     (quoting
    Sivak, 
    658 F.3d at 912
    ), we hold that the California Supreme
    Court would not have erred in finding no “reasonable
    likelihood that [Moore’s testimony] could have affected the
    judgment of the jury.” Hayes, 
    399 F.3d at 985
     (quoting
    Belmontes, 
    350 F.3d at 881
    ); see also Phillips, 
    673 F.3d at 1190
     (“[T]he prosecution’s Napue violations, although
    ‘pernicious’ and ‘reprehensible,’ were not material to
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                       17
    [petitioner’s] conviction of first-degree murder.” (quoting
    Hayes, 
    399 F.3d at 981
    )).
    Even setting aside Moore’s testimony, the case against
    Panah was devastating. Parker’s naked body was found in a
    suitcase in Panah’s bedroom closet. Blood stains matching
    Parker’s blood type – according to both Moore and the post-
    conviction reports – were found on Panah’s robe. Moreover,
    Panah’s behavior on the day of and after Parker went missing
    was highly suspicious. Hours after she disappeared, Panah
    tried to divert her father away from where her body was later
    found. Then, after the police called Panah at work to ask if
    he had seen Parker, he left without explanation, later telling
    his manager and Campbell that he was in serious trouble.
    The next morning, Panah even confided in Campbell that he
    was involved in Parker’s death. See Arizona v. Fulminante,
    
    499 U.S. 279
    , 296 (1991) (“A confession is like no other
    evidence. Indeed, ‘the defendant’s own confession is
    probably the most probative and damaging evidence that can
    be admitted against him.’” (quoting Bruton v. United States,
    
    391 U.S. 123
    , 139 (1968) (White, J., dissenting))). And then,
    particularly incriminating in light of his statements, Panah
    attempted suicide the morning after Parker’s disappearance.
    The jury then heard Dr. Heuser’s impactful testimony
    about the crime itself. She described Parker’s extensive
    injuries from the sexual assault, including significant trauma
    to Parker’s vaginal and rectal areas, indicative of digital and
    penile penetration. In addition, Dr. Heuser described the
    violent nature of the assault: Parker was hit with “blunt
    force,” consistent with her “head striking . . . a wall or a
    floor” or being hit with a “fist.” As a result, Parker’s brain
    was swollen from this “significant impact,” and she had
    bruises – some caused by “manual strangulation” – along her
    face, neck, arms, buttocks, and legs, and scratches on her
    18                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    legs. Dr. Heuser cited strangulation and sodomy as “the
    most lethal injuries.”
    Although Dr. Heuser’s testimony did not directly
    implicate Panah, it was nonetheless critical. It established
    that a crime – and a brutal one – took place. When added to
    the evidence the jury heard about where Parker’s body was
    found and Panah’s statements, it was more than sufficient for
    the jury to render a guilty verdict. And, while Panah
    contends that Moore’s testimony was prejudicial because of
    its at-times graphic descriptions, particularly of oral
    copulation, Dr. Heuser’s testimony offered an even more
    graphic and detailed description of the entire sexual assault
    and murder. As the State itself said, Dr. Heuser’s testimony
    is “probably the most telling evidence of what happened.”
    The state court also reasonably could have found
    Moore’s testimony to be an immaterial part of the State’s
    case because it offered the jury, at most, hypotheticals and
    wavering findings. Unlike Dr. Heuser’s straightforward
    testimony about Parker’s injuries, Moore acknowledged that
    his findings rested on a number of assumptions, such as that
    the A and B antigens came from two people rather than one
    with AB blood type. And even if he was correct that the A
    and B antigens came from two people, Moore neither could
    definitively say they came from Parker and Panah, nor could
    he even narrow the pool of possible matches to less than
    hundreds of thousands of people. He said frankly on the
    stand: “I cannot establish any certainty based on
    conventional serology. I can only demonstrate consistency.”
    For this reason, Moore’s testimony was couched in
    inconclusive terms, such as “could have originated from” or
    were “consistent” with. The State even acknowledged this
    weakness in Moore’s findings in closing argument:
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                       19
    Now the question is, did a person with AB
    blood leave . . . body fluids such as blood,
    semen[,] and saliva, on the sheets, on the
    toilet paper, on the robe. That is one
    interpretation. The other interpretation, of
    course, is that you have two separate people,
    one of whom has type A, and one has type B.
    Therefore, at best, Moore’s testimony required the jury
    to draw its own inferences. This was not the case of
    impactful expert testimony telling the jury that there was a
    one-in-a-million chance the evidence matched anyone but
    Panah. Rather, any effect Moore’s findings may have had
    on the jury – which was reasonably none – was fully
    dependent on the other weighty evidence presented by the
    State. For instance, without having found Parker’s body in
    Panah’s bedroom, no juror could have reasonably inferred
    that Parker was the A antigen contributor.
    The jury’s verdict removes any lingering doubt about the
    materiality of Moore’s testimony. If the State needed
    Moore’s testimony at all, it was to prove the special
    circumstance allegation and substantive charge of oral
    copulation. In its closing, for instance, the State referred to
    Moore’s findings of mixed bodily fluids on the tissue and
    bedsheet to prove this sexual act. Yet, the jury did not find
    true the special circumstance allegation that Parker’s murder
    was committed while in the commission of oral copulation.
    Although the jury did find Panah guilty of the felony of oral
    copulation, the verdict is still telling. A reasonable
    interpretation of the jury’s rejection of this special
    circumstance is that the jury was not entirely persuaded by
    Moore’s mixture theory. In contrast, this highlights the
    effectiveness of Dr. Heuser’s testimony. The State relied on
    her findings to prove the special circumstance allegations
    20                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    and substantive charges of sodomy and lewd acts, which the
    jury found to be true.
    Still, Panah contends that Moore’s testimony was
    material because it was the only evidence identifying him as
    the perpetrator. Although creative, this argument makes
    little headway. It ignores the substantial evidence tying
    Panah to Parker’s murder and sexual assault. This was not a
    case where the police had no leads on a suspect. Nor was it
    a case where the prosecution needed Moore’s serology
    evidence to place Panah at the crime scene. Rather, as the
    State emphasized in its closing: “You have a body in his
    closet, in his suitcase. There isn’t a whole lot more you need
    to do after that in terms of looking and investigating outside
    of the obvious, which is that Mr. Panah is the person
    involved.” And, as previously mentioned, Panah’s own
    admissions linked him to the assault. Thus, even without
    Moore’s testimony, the State had no difficulty proving
    identity.
    For these reasons, Panah’s reliance on Miller v. Pate,
    
    386 U.S. 1
     (1967), is unavailing. In Miller, the petitioner
    was also charged with the murder and sexual assault of a
    young girl without any eyewitnesses to the crime. 
    Id.
     at 2–
    3. The State’s only evidence linking petitioner to the victim
    was male underwear, which an expert said had blood stains
    on it matching the victim, found near the crime scene. 
    Id.
    at 3–4. Post-conviction testing proved the underwear stains
    were paint, not blood, and that the State had known this at
    trial. 
    Id.
     at 5–6. The Supreme Court reversed petitioner’s
    conviction because, while the State successfully used the
    underwear as “an important link in the chain of
    circumstantial evidence against the petitioner,” in reality it
    was “virtually valueless as evidence.” 
    Id. at 4, 6
    .
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                         21
    Miller is clearly distinguishable. First, although the
    parties agree that the tissue testimony was false, post-
    conviction testing did not render the majority of Moore’s
    testimony false. Neither post-conviction report conclusively
    refuted his findings as to the bedsheet or robe stains.
    Therefore, unlike in Miller, the evidence in question here did
    not become “virtually valueless” to convict. 
    Id. at 6
    .
    Second, Moore’s testimony was not the “important link” in
    proving Panah’s guilt. 
    Id. at 4
    . The State did not even need
    Moore’s testimony to convict Panah. This case differs
    significantly from Miller because here the state court could
    reasonably rely on an abundance of other evidence to still
    have confidence in the conviction.
    Panah’s reliance on Alcorta, 
    355 U.S. 28
    , also is
    misplaced.     There, the Court overturned petitioner’s
    conviction because the false “testimony was seriously
    prejudicial to petitioner” and “tended squarely to refute his
    claim.” 
    Id. at 31
    . Had the false testimony been corrected,
    petitioner’s defense would have been corroborated. But,
    here, even if Moore’s testimony had been corrected or
    entirely excluded, the jury would not have heard a
    significantly different presentation of evidence. At most,
    although we think unlikely, the State’s case may have
    become marginally weaker.
    Rather, this case is quite similar to Sivak, 
    658 F.3d 898
    ,
    in which we rejected a guilt-phase Napue claim because the
    court had “full confidence that the jury would still have
    convicted.” 
    Id. at 913
    . There, we held: “[E]ven if the jury
    disbelieved [the false testimony] entirely . . . there still is no
    ‘reasonable likelihood that the false testimony could have
    affected the judgment of the jury.’” 
    Id. at 914
     (quoting
    Jackson, 
    513 F.3d at 1076
    ). As in Sivak, we think the
    California Supreme Court reasonably still could have had
    22                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    “full confidence” that the jury would have returned the same
    verdict even in absence of Moore’s testimony. Id. at 913.
    In sum, we do not think Moore’s testimony was critical
    in convicting Panah. Excluding Moore’s testimony, the
    State’s case was still devastating and largely unchallenged.
    Moore’s testimony was certainly not “the centerpiece of the
    prosecution’s case.” Hayes, 
    399 F.3d at 985
    . Rather, in light
    of the overwhelming evidence against Panah and the jury’s
    rejection of the oral copulation special circumstance, it is
    reasonable to conclude that his testimony had essentially no
    effect on the jury’s decision making. Cf. Dow, 729 F.3d
    at 1049–50 (concluding that false testimony was material
    because “[t]he evidence against [petitioner] was weak”);
    Maxwell, 
    628 F.3d at 508
     (holding that false testimony was
    material because it came from a “‘make-or-break’ witness
    for the State” and there was a “paucity of other evidence”);
    Hall, 
    343 F.3d at 984
     (reversing under Napue “[i]n light of
    the already scant evidence on which the conviction was
    based”). As such, we conclude that the California Supreme
    Court reasonably rejected Panah’s Napue claim.
    We next turn to Panah’s guilt-phase ineffective
    assistance claim. To prevail, Panah must show that his
    counsel’s performance “fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness” and “a reasonable probability that, but for
    counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding
    would have been different.” Strickland v. Washington,
    
    466 U.S. 668
    , 688, 694 (1984). “The likelihood of a
    different result,” however, “must be substantial, not just
    conceivable.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 112
    . This already
    imposing standard becomes doubly difficult to satisfy once
    AEDPA deference is tacked on. See Cullen v. Pinholster,
    
    563 U.S. 170
    , 189 (2011) (“[T]he benchmark for judging any
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                     23
    claim of ineffectiveness [under Strickland] must be whether
    counsel’s conduct so undermined the proper functioning of
    the adversarial process that the trial cannot be relied on as
    having produced a just result.” (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 686
    )).
    Panah argues that his trial counsel was ineffective for
    failing to conduct a reasonable investigation and therefore
    not rebutting the State’s serology and pathology evidence.
    In support of his claim, Panah notes that his counsel never
    retained an expert to independently analyze the pathology
    and serology evidence or to testify at the guilt phase.
    Instead, defense counsel essentially seemed to accept the
    State’s evidence as true. In post-conviction proceedings,
    counsel acknowledged that his inordinate focus on
    settlement resulted in too little, if even any, pre-trial
    investigation.
    While we are instructed to “avoid the temptation to
    second-guess [counsel’s] performance,” Mayfield v.
    Woodford, 
    270 F.3d 915
    , 927 (9th Cir. 2001) (en banc), we
    are concerned with defense counsel’s lack of pre-trial
    investigation. See Duncan v. Ornoski, 
    528 F.3d 1222
    , 1235
    (9th Cir. 2008) (“[L]awyers [have] considerable discretion
    to make strategic decisions about what to investigate, but
    only after those lawyers ‘have gathered sufficient evidence
    upon which to base their tactical choices.’” (quoting
    Jennings v. Woodford, 
    290 F.3d 1006
    , 1014 (9th Cir.
    2002))). But we “need not determine whether counsel’s
    performance was deficient before examining the prejudice
    suffered by the defendant as a result of the alleged
    deficiencies.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 697
    . Here, even
    assuming counsel’s performance was deficient, we cannot
    say – in light of the overwhelming evidence of Panah’s guilt
    and the deference we owe the state court judgment – that the
    24                  PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    California Supreme Court would have erred in finding no
    “reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s
    unprofessional errors, the result of the proceeding would
    have been different.” 
    Id. at 694
    .
    After weighing counsel’s deficiencies cumulatively with
    “the strength of the government’s case,” Rios v. Rocha,
    
    299 F.3d 796
    , 808–09 (9th Cir. 2002) (quoting Eggleston v.
    United States, 
    798 F.2d 374
    , 376 (9th Cir. 1986)), we believe
    the state court reasonably rejected Panah’s assertion that the
    trial’s outcome “would have been dramatically different”
    had counsel’s performance not been deficient.             Our
    reasoning on prejudice bears significant similarities to why
    we reject Panah’s Napue claim. We do not wish to harp on
    what was detailed in the preceding section, but the State had
    a uniquely strong case against Panah. Parker’s body was
    found in his bedroom; Panah’s behavior the day of and after
    her disappearance was incriminating; Panah admitted his
    own involvement in her death; and Parker’s serious physical
    injuries, including to her genitalia, were well-documented.
    Defense counsel even acknowledged that this evidence was
    the foundation of the State’s case: “The critical pieces of
    evidence are obviously that the child’s body is found in Mr.
    Panah’s closet, her naked body with a considerable amount
    of blood. There is evidence . . . that the child was beaten.”
    It is, therefore, inconceivable, even had defense counsel
    independently investigated the serology and pathology
    evidence, that the jury would have reached a different
    verdict. See Williams v. Filson, 
    908 F.3d 546
    , 570 (9th Cir.
    2018) (“We have long recognized . . . that ‘prejudice
    resulting from ineffective assistance of counsel must be
    “considered collectively, not item by item.”’” (quoting Doe
    v. Ayers, 
    782 F.3d 425
    , 460 n.62 (9th Cir. 2015))). Even if
    the weaknesses in Moore’s and Dr. Heuser’s findings that
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                       25
    came to light post-conviction were raised at trial, that would
    have done nothing to reasonably change the outcome. Not
    only was there no “strong, unequivocal, exculpatory
    evidence available,” Rios, 
    299 F.3d at 813
    , but there was
    nothing to substantively challenge the serology or pathology
    evidence. It is true that counsel could have told the jury that
    Moore’s findings as to the tissue were wrong. But counsel
    could not have refuted Moore’s findings as to the bedsheet
    and robe stains, and even a different outcome on the felony
    of oral copulation would not affect Panah’s guilty verdict
    and death sentence. Also, Panah’s contention that he was
    prejudiced by counsel’s failure to rebut Moore’s mixture
    theory because it put him at the crime scene fails to
    acknowledge that finding Parker’s body in his bedroom
    alone was sufficient to do that. Therefore, whatever rebuttal
    of the State’s expert witnesses that Panah believes he was
    deprived of and thus prejudiced by would not have overcome
    the other significant evidence of guilt.
    Moreover, for however deficient defense counsel’s
    investigation was, the state court also could have reasonably
    found no prejudice because counsel adequately challenged
    the State’s expert witnesses on the stand. See Richter,
    
    562 U.S. at 111
     (“In many instances cross-examination will
    be sufficient to expose defects in an expert’s presentation.”).
    During Moore’s cross-examination, defense counsel
    attempted to cast doubt on his findings. His questions
    pushed Moore to acknowledge the high statistical
    probability of persons other than Panah and Parker
    contributing to the stains, and that Moore could not even
    “determine when th[e] stains were deposited.” Counsel also
    remarked that Moore offered nothing more than
    “inconclusive blood typing,” hypothesized that Moore
    simply “construct[ed] some sort of theory whereby you can
    link that blood to Mr. Panah or to the deceased,” and
    26                   PANAH V. CHAPPELL
    questioned why the jury was “not offered DNA evidence.”
    Notably, even one of the post-conviction reports described
    the cross-examination of Moore as “reasonably successful.”
    Similarly, we do not think there was anything in the
    defense’s questioning of Dr. Heuser that would have
    changed the outcome. There was nothing to rebut her
    detailed testimony about Parker’s extensive injuries. Panah
    instead alleges that he was prejudiced by counsel’s failure to
    rebut Dr. Heuser’s assessment of the cause and time of death.
    But at trial, counsel did flag concerns with this part of her
    testimony. Thus, we agree with the district court’s
    conclusion that, “in light of the ‘setting of a sexual assault,’”
    further challenging Dr. Heuser’s testimony on the cause of
    death “would have been no more palatable to the jury.”
    As a result, the state court would not have unreasonably
    determined that counsel’s casting-doubt strategy was
    appropriate, even effective, and thus found a lack of
    prejudice. With little to do about the State’s formidable
    evidence against Panah, counsel still sought to inform the
    jury of weaknesses in the experts’ testimony. See 
    id.
     (“When
    defense counsel does not have a solid case, the best strategy
    can be to say that there is too much doubt about the State’s
    theory for a jury to convict.”). And here the strategy even
    seems to have been somewhat successful, as the jury rejected
    the special circumstance allegation of oral copulation. Like
    in the Napue analysis, this is probative evidence that the jury
    did not give persuasive weight to the serology testimony,
    presumably because of defense counsel’s strategy and cross-
    examination.
    Our analysis is further guided by Richter, in which the
    Supreme Court rejected a similar ineffective assistance
    claim based on counsel’s failure to present an expert to rebut
    the State’s forensic evidence. 
    Id.
     at 111–13. The Court’s
    PANAH V. CHAPPELL                              27
    reasoning is almost entirely applicable here. Holding that
    the petitioner was not prejudiced, the Court concluded that
    there was little chance of a different outcome because the
    post-conviction evidence did not exonerate petitioner and
    because some of petitioner’s post-conviction evidentiary
    concerns were already raised by counsel at trial before the
    jury. The Court went on to determine – as is also applicable
    here – that the petitioner also did not prove any likelihood of
    a different outcome because he had done nothing to rebut the
    other “sufficient conventional circumstantial evidence
    pointing to [his] guilt.” 3 
    Id. at 113
    .
    We do not hold that counsel should not have done more.
    But, based on the particular facts before us, we recognize
    there was “nothing more than a theoretical possibility” of a
    different verdict. 
    Id. at 112
    . The evidence of Panah’s guilt
    was so strong that there remained an “ample basis for the
    California Supreme Court to think any real possibility of
    [Panah’s] being acquitted was eclipsed by the remaining
    evidence pointing to guilt.” 
    Id. at 113
    . Therefore, we affirm
    the district court’s denial of Panah’s ineffective assistance
    claim.
    AFFIRMED.
    3
    Panah’s attempt to analogize his case to several out-of-circuit cases
    falls short. For instance, in Elmore v. Ozmint, 
    661 F.3d 783
    , 871–72 (4th
    Cir. 2011), the Fourth Circuit held that the petitioner was prejudiced by
    counsel’s failure to investigate any of the prosecution’s forensic
    evidence. But, there, “[t]he case was a real ‘who-done-it,’” and, with a
    proper “investigation, the jury undeniably would have seen a drastically
    different – and significantly weaker – prosecution case.” 
    Id. at 861, 870
    .
    None of that is true here.