Ivan Pena v. Stephen Lindley , 898 F.3d 969 ( 2018 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    IVAN PENA; ROY VARGAS; DONA              No. 15-15449
    CROSTON; BRETT THOMAS; SECOND
    AMENDMENT FOUNDATION, INC.;                 D.C. No.
    CALGUNS FOUNDATION, INC.,                2:09-cv-01185-
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,        KJM-CKD
    v.
    OPINION
    STEPHEN LINDLEY, Chief of the
    California Department of Justice
    Bureau of Firearms,
    Defendant-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Eastern District of California
    Kimberly J. Mueller, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted March 16, 2017
    San Francisco, California
    Filed August 3, 2018
    Before: J. Clifford Wallace, M. Margaret McKeown,
    and Jay S. Bybee, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge McKeown;
    Partial Concurrence and Partial Dissent by Judge Bybee
    2                         PENA V. LINDLEY
    SUMMARY*
    Civil Rights
    The panel affirmed the district court’s summary judgment
    in favor of California in an action challenging three
    provisions of California’s Unsafe Handgun Act.
    California requires that new models of handguns meet
    certain criteria, and be listed on a handgun roster, before they
    may be offered for sale in the state. Two provisions require
    that a handgun have a chamber load indicator and a magazine
    detachment mechanism, both of which are designed to limit
    accidental firearm discharges. The third provision, adopted
    to aid law enforcement, requires new handguns to stamp
    microscopically the handgun’s make, model, and serial
    number onto each fired shell casing. Plaintiffs asserted that
    these three provisions have narrowed their ability to buy
    firearms in California, in violation of the Second
    Amendment, and that the handgun roster scheme imposes
    irrational exceptions, in violation of the Equal Protection
    Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment.
    The panel held that it did not need to reach the question
    of whether the challenged provisions fell within the scope of
    the Second Amendment’s right to bear arms because, even
    assuming coverage, the provisions passed constitutional
    muster. Applying intermediate scrutiny, the panel held that
    the Act only regulates commercial sales, not possession, and
    does so in a way that does not impose a substantial burden on
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                         3
    purchasers. The panel held that the requirements for a
    chamber load indicator and a magazine detachment
    mechanism reasonably fit with California’s interest in public
    safety. The panel further held that California had met its
    burden of showing that the microstamping requirement was
    reasonably tailored to address the substantial problem of
    untraceable bullets at crime scenes and the value of a
    reasonable means of identification. The panel rejected
    plaintiffs’ claim that they have a constitutional right to
    purchase a particular handgun and their claim that the
    provisions violate the Equal Protection Clause.
    Concurring in part and dissenting in part, Judge Bybee
    agreed that intermediate scrutiny applied to plaintiffs’ Second
    Amendment challenge. Judge Bybee also agreed that there
    was a reasonable fit between the chamber load indicator and
    magazine detachment mechanism requirements and the
    State’s substantial interest in enhancing public safety. Judge
    Bybee could not conclude, however, that the State was
    entitled to summary judgment on plaintiff’s challenge to the
    microstamping requirement given the state’s demanding
    testing protocol, which plaintiffs alleged acts as a prohibition
    on the commercial sale of new handguns in California. He
    would reverse the district court and remand for further
    proceedings.
    4                   PENA V. LINDLEY
    COUNSEL
    Alan Gura (argued), Gura & Possessky PLLC, Alexandria,
    Virginia; Donald E. J. Kilmer Jr., Law Offices of Donald
    Kilmer, San Jose, California; for Plaintiffs-Appellants.
    Anthony R. Hakl (argued), Deputy Attorney General; Stepan
    A. Haytayan, Supervising Deputy Attorney General; Douglas
    J. Woods, Senior Assistant Attorney General; Office of the
    Attorney General, Sacramento, California; for Defendant-
    Appellee.
    C.D. Michel and Clinton B. Monfort, Michel & Associates
    P.C., Long Beach, California, for Amici Curiae National
    Rifle Association of America Inc. and California Rifle and
    Pistol Association.
    Lance A. Selfridge and Daniel C. DeCarl, Lewis Brisbois
    Bisgaard & Smith LLP, Los Angeles, California, for Amici
    Curiae National Shooting Sports Foundation Inc. and
    Sporting Arms and Ammunition Manufacturers’ Institute Inc.
    Grace R. DiLaura and David H. Fry, Munger Tolles & Olson
    LLP, San Francisco, California, for Amicus Curiae Law
    Center to Prevent Gun Violence.
    Eric A. Krause, White & Case LLP, Palo Alto, California;
    Daniel Levin, White & Case LLP, Washington, D.C.;
    Jonathan Lowy, Brady Center to Prevent Gun Violence,
    Washington, D.C.; for Amicus Curiae Brady Center to
    Prevent Gun Violence.
    Andrew Esbenshade, Amy E. Pomerantz, and Michael R.
    Leslie, Caldwell Leslie & Proctor PC, Los Angeles,
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       5
    California, for Amicus Curiae Office of the Los Angeles City
    Attorney.
    Deepak Gupta and Jonathan E. Taylor, Gupta Wessler PLLC,
    Washington, D.C.; J. Adam Skaggs and Mark Anthony
    Frassetto, Everytown for Gun Safety, New York, New York;
    for Amicus Curiae Everytown for Gun Safety.
    OPINION
    McKEOWN, Circuit Judge:
    Unsurprisingly, the Second Amendment says nothing
    about modern technology adopted to prevent accidental
    firearm discharges or trace handguns via serial numbers
    microstamped onto fired shell casings. The question before
    us is whether making specific commercial gun sales
    contingent on incorporating these innovations violates the
    constitution. This appeal stems from a challenge to three
    provisions of California’s Unsafe Handgun Act (“UHA”).
    For safety reasons, California requires that new models of
    handguns meet certain criteria, and be listed on a handgun
    roster, before they may be offered for sale in the state. Two
    provisions require that a handgun have a chamber load
    indicator and a magazine detachment mechanism, both of
    which are designed to limit accidental firearm discharges.
    The third provision, adopted to aid law enforcement, requires
    new handguns to stamp microscopically the handgun’s make,
    model, and serial number onto each fired shell casing.
    Ivan Pena, along with several other individuals and two
    nonprofit organizations, the Second Amendment Foundation,
    Inc. and the Calguns Foundation, Inc. (collectively,
    6                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    “Purchasers”), challenge the constitutionality of the UHA.
    Purchasers argue that these three provisions have narrowed
    their ability to buy firearms in California, in violation of the
    Second Amendment, and that the handgun roster scheme
    imposes irrational exceptions, in violation of the Equal
    Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. We do not
    need to reach the question of whether these limitations fall
    within the scope of the Second Amendment’s right to bear
    arms because, even assuming coverage, these provisions pass
    constitutional muster. The California law only regulates
    commercial sales, not possession, and does so in a way that
    does not impose a substantial burden on Purchasers. We
    reject Purchasers’ claim that they have a constitutional right
    to purchase a particular handgun. Nor do the provisions
    violate the Equal Protection Clause. We affirm the district
    court’s grant of summary judgment in favor of California.
    BACKGROUND
    I. The Unsafe Handgun Act
    As its name implies, California’s Unsafe Handgun Act
    (UHA) seeks to reduce the number of firearm deaths in the
    state. The primary enforcement clause reads:
    A person in this state who manufactures or
    causes to be manufactured, imports into the
    state for sale, keeps for sale, offers or exposes
    for sale, gives, or lends an unsafe handgun
    shall be punished by imprisonment in a
    county jail not exceeding one year.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                            7
    CAL. PENAL CODE § 32000(a).1 An “unsafe handgun” is
    defined as “any pistol, revolver, or other firearm capable of
    being concealed upon the person” and that does not have
    certain safety devices, meet firing requirements, or satisfy
    drop safety requirements. 
    Id. § 31910.
    The UHA charges the California Department of Justice
    (“CDOJ”) with maintaining a roster of all handgun models
    that have been tested by a certified testing laboratory, “have
    been determined not to be unsafe handguns,” and may be sold
    in the state. 
    Id. § 32015(a).2
    Effectively, the Act presumes
    all handguns are unsafe unless the CDOJ determines them
    “not to be unsafe.” Handguns with purely cosmetic
    differences (including a difference in finish, grip material,
    and shape or texture of the grip) from a handgun already on
    the roster need not meet these criteria. See 
    id. § 32030.
    Over time, California has added new requirements for
    inclusion on the roster. Since 2007, new models of
    semiautomatic pistols must be equipped with both a chamber
    load indicator (CLI) and a magazine detachment mechanism
    (MDM)—safety features designed to limit accidental
    discharges that occur when someone mistakenly believes no
    round is in the chamber. 
    Id. § 31910(b)(5).
    A CLI is a
    “device that plainly indicates that a cartridge is in the firing
    chamber.” 
    Id. § 16380.
    An MDM is “a mechanism that
    prevents a semiautomatic pistol that has a detachable
    magazine from operating to strike the primer of ammunition
    1
    Enacted in 1999, the UHA became effective in 2001.
    2
    To add a handgun to the roster, a firearm manufacturer must pay a
    fee so that the state may test the firearm against the statutory and
    regulatory criteria. See CAL. PENAL CODE § 32015(b).
    8                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    in the firing chamber when a detachable magazine is not
    inserted in the semiautomatic pistol.” 
    Id. § 16900.
    Since 2013, new models of semiautomatic pistols need to
    include a feature called “microstamping”: each such pistol
    must imprint two sets of microscopic arrays of characters that
    identify the make, model, and serial number of the pistol onto
    the cartridge or shell casing of each fired round. 
    Id. § 31910(b)(7).3
          Designed to help solve crimes,
    microstamping provides law enforcement with identifying
    information about a handgun fired at a crime scene. See
    Fiscal v. City & Cty. of S.F., 
    70 Cal. Rptr. 3d 324
    , 337 (Ct.
    App. 2008).
    There are exceptions to these requirements. Most
    significant, the required features are inapplicable to models
    of semiautomatic pistols that were “already listed on the
    roster” when such requirements became effective. CAL.
    PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(5), (7). In addition, firearms sold to
    law enforcement officials and certain curios or relics (as
    defined in the Code of Federal Regulations) are exempt.
    CAL. PENAL CODE § 32000(b)(3), (4). Pistols used in
    Olympic target shooting are exempt, see 
    id. § 32105,
    as are
    certain single action revolvers and single shot pistols of either
    a certain age (a curio or relic made before 1900) or a certain
    size (greater than seven-and-a-half inches), see 
    id. §§ 32000(b)(3),
    32100. Other exemptions include firearms
    transferred between private parties, see 
    id. § 32110(a),
    3
    This requirement was set to begin in 2010, but did not become
    effective until 2013 because it was contingent on the CDOJ certifying
    “that the technology used to create the imprint is available to more than
    one manufacturer unencumbered by any patent restrictions.” 
    Id. § 31910(b)(7)(A).
                             PENA V. LINDLEY                              9
    firearms delivered for consignment sale or as collateral for a
    pawnbroker loan, see 
    id. § 32110(f),
    and firearms used solely
    as props for video production, see 
    id. § 32110(h).
    II. District Court Proceedings
    Seeking to enjoin the state from enforcing the UHA, in
    2009 Purchasers sued the Chief of the CDOJ Bureau of
    Firearms Stephen Lindley on two constitutional theories.
    Purchasers claimed that the CLI, MDM, and microstamping
    requirements restricted access to the firearms of their choice,
    in violation of the Second Amendment.4 Purchasers also
    claimed that the UHA’s roster scheme transgressed the Equal
    Protection Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment by making
    irrational exceptions.
    After cross-motions, briefing, and a hearing, the district
    court granted summary judgment to California. Citing the
    Supreme Court’s landmark decision in District of Columbia
    v. Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    (2008), the district court characterized
    the UHA provisions as “laws imposing conditions or
    qualifications on the commercial sale of firearms,” and thus
    concluded that the laws presumptively did not violate the
    Second Amendment. The district court observed that the
    provisions were conditions on the sale of firearms, not
    4
    Purchasers’ theory is that handguns lacking CLI, MDM, and
    microstamping technology are in common lawful use throughout the
    United States and that prohibiting their sale in California violates the
    Second Amendment. When the legislature amended the UHA to include
    these requirements, between eleven and fourteen percent of handguns in
    the United States were available with a CLI and MDM. According to
    Purchasers, no handguns were available in the United States that met the
    microstamping requirements. The record does not indicate whether and
    how these figures have changed over time.
    10                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    prohibitions, and that Purchasers maintained access to nearly
    1,000 types of firearms on the roster, all of which were
    approved for sale in California. Purchasers’ “[i]nsistence
    upon . . . particular” handguns, the court concluded, simply
    “f[e]ll outside the scope of the right to bear arms.”
    Analysis
    I. SECOND AMENDMENT
    A. The Supreme Court’s Heller Framework
    The Second Amendment provides: “A well regulated
    Militia, being necessary to the security of a free State, the
    right of the people to keep and bear Arms, shall not be
    infringed.” U.S. CONST. amend. II. In Heller, the Supreme
    Court held that the Second Amendment protects an individual
    right to possess a “lawful firearm in the home operable for the
    purpose of immediate 
    self-defense.” 554 U.S. at 635
    .5
    Whether the UHA violates Purchasers’ Second
    Amendment rights is framed by a two-step inquiry
    established in Heller. We first consider whether the Act
    “burdens conduct protected by the Second Amendment,” and
    if it does, we “apply an appropriate level of scrutiny.”
    Jackson v. City & Cty. of S.F., 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 960 (9th Cir.
    2014).6
    5
    The Second Amendment applies to the states through the Due
    Process Clause of the Fourteenth Amendment. See McDonald v. Chicago,
    
    561 U.S. 742
    (2010).
    6
    Once the district court answered “no” to the first question, it never
    reached the second part of the analysis.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       11
    Whether a challenged law burdens conduct protected by
    the Second Amendment depends on “the historical
    understanding of the scope of the right,” including “whether
    the challenged law falls within a well-defined and narrowly
    limited category of prohibitions that have been historically
    unprotected.” 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    . In Heller, the
    Supreme Court set forth non-exhaustive categories of
    “presumptively lawful regulatory measures” that are
    presumed to be consistent with the historical scope of the
    Second Amendment:
    Although we do not undertake an exhaustive
    historical analysis today of the full scope of
    the Second Amendment, nothing in our
    opinion should be taken to cast doubt on
    longstanding prohibitions on the possession of
    firearms by felons and the mentally ill, or
    laws forbidding the carrying of firearms in
    sensitive places such as schools and
    government buildings, or laws imposing
    conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms.
    
    Id. at 626–27
    & n.26. The Court, however, did not define the
    contours of these “presumptively lawful” categories. See 
    id. at 635
    (“[T]here will be time enough to expound upon the
    historical justifications for the exceptions we have mentioned
    if and when these exceptions come before us.”).
    In the decade since Heller, the courts of appeals have
    spilled considerable ink in trying to navigate the Supreme
    Court’s framework. Perhaps that is why the Seventh Circuit
    observed, “[w]e do not think it profitable to parse these
    passages of Heller as if they contained an answer.” United
    12                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    States v. Skoien, 
    614 F.3d 638
    , 640 (7th Cir. 2010) (en banc).
    Our sister circuits have struggled to unpack the different
    meanings of “presumptively lawful.” See United States v.
    Marzzarella, 
    614 F.3d 85
    , 91 (3d Cir. 2010) (“On the one
    hand, this language could be read to suggest the identified
    restrictions are presumptively lawful because they regulate
    conduct outside the scope of the Second Amendment. On the
    other hand, it may suggest the restrictions are presumptively
    lawful because they pass muster under any standard of
    scrutiny.”); United States v. Chester, 
    628 F.3d 673
    , 679 (4th
    Cir. 2010) (“It is unclear to us whether Heller was suggesting
    that ‘longstanding prohibitions’ such as these were
    historically understood to be valid limitations on the right to
    bear arms or did not violate the Second Amendment for some
    other reason.”); Heller v. District of Columbia (Heller II),
    
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1253 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (citations omitted)
    (“Heller tells us ‘longstanding’ regulations are
    ‘presumptively lawful,’ that is, they are presumed not to
    burden conduct within the scope of the Second
    Amendment.”).
    Our circuit similarly has strained to interpret the phrase
    “conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of
    arms.” Viewing that language as “sufficiently opaque” to
    “rely[] on it alone,” we instead conducted a full textual and
    historical review of the scope of the Second Amendment in
    a recent challenge. Teixeira v. Cty. Of Alameda, 
    873 F.3d 670
    , 683 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc).
    The opaqueness of the presumption of legality for
    “conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of
    arms” likely explains why we and other courts often have
    assumed without deciding that a regulation does burden
    conduct protected by the Second Amendment rather than
    PENA V. LINDLEY                             13
    parse whether the law falls into that exception. In these
    cases, the court avoided having to define the contours of the
    commercial sales category because it assumed the Second
    Amendment applied and upheld the restriction under the
    appropriate level of constitutional scrutiny.7
    We, too, follow this well-trodden and “judicious course.”
    Wollard v. Gallagher, 
    712 F.3d 865
    , 876 (4th Cir. 2013). We
    assume without deciding that the challenged UHA provisions
    burden conduct protected by the Second Amendment because
    we conclude that the statute is constitutional irrespective of
    that determination. By making this assumption, we bypass
    the constitutional obstacle course of defining the parameters
    of the Second Amendment’s individual right in the context of
    commercial sales. Thus, we have no occasion to engage with
    the dissent’s extensive exegesis on this point.
    B. Determination of the Appropriate Level of
    Scrutiny
    Because we assume that the UHA implicates Purchasers’
    right to bear arms, our next task is to determine the
    appropriate level of scrutiny for review of the California
    requirements. Purchasers stump for strict scrutiny while
    California invites intermediate, at most.
    7
    See Silvester v. Harris, 
    843 F.3d 816
    , 827–29 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (assuming a ten-day waiting period on the purchase of a firearm burdened
    conduct protected by the Second Amendment and applying intermediate
    scrutiny); Wilson v. Lynch, 
    835 F.3d 1083
    , 1092 (9th Cir. 2016) (applying
    intermediate scrutiny to a regulation prohibiting possessors of medical
    marijuana card from buying firearms), cert. denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 1396
    (2017); cf. 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 967
    –68 (applying intermediate scrutiny
    to a ban on the sale of hollow-point ammunition).
    14                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    Our post-Heller decisions generally have applied
    intermediate scrutiny to firearms regulations. See 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 822
    (upholding a ten-day waiting period on the
    sale of firearms to those who already own one); 
    Wilson, 835 F.3d at 1092
    (upholding ban on possession by holders of
    state medical marijuana cards); 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000
    –01
    (refusing to preliminarily enjoin an ordinance banning
    possession of high-capacity magazines); 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 966
    , 970 (upholding ordinances requiring firearms to be
    stored in a locked container when not carried on the person
    and forbidding the purchase of hollow-point ammunition);
    United States v. Chovan, 
    735 F.3d 1127
    , 1139 (9th Cir. 2013)
    (upholding a ban on firearm possession by people convicted
    of domestic violence).
    Which level of scrutiny to apply depends on “how close
    the law comes to the core of the Second Amendment right”
    and “the severity of the law’s burden on the right.” 
    Id. at 1138.
    We strictly scrutinize a “law that implicates the core of
    the Second Amendment right and severely burdens that
    right.” 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 821
    . Otherwise, we apply
    intermediate scrutiny if the law “does not implicate the core
    Second Amendment right or does not place a substantial
    burden on that right.” 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 998
    –99.
    Consistent with our threshold decision not to assess
    whether the California restrictions fall within the Second
    Amendment, we need not answer conclusively whether the
    UHA’s restrictions implicate the core Second Amendment
    right of “self defense of the home.” 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 821
    (citing 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 628
    –29). Because the restrictions
    do not substantially burden any such right, intermediate
    scrutiny is appropriate.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       15
    At the outset, it is important to understand what the
    statute does and does not do vis-à-vis handguns, the
    “quintessential self-defense weapon.” 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 629
    . Moving forward, the statute limits commercial sales of
    new models of semiautomatic pistols to those with the CLI,
    MDM, and microstamping protections. Importantly, the
    UHA “grandfathers” hundreds of handgun models on the
    approved guns roster that do not meet the new requirements.
    The statute does not restrict possession of handguns in the
    home or elsewhere (with or without CLI, MDM, and
    microstamping features). The statute also includes a number
    of exemptions. For example, the statute does not affect the
    sale of off-roster existing handguns in private sales
    transactions. Nor are out-of-state sales regulated.
    In weighing the severity of the burden, we are guided by
    a longstanding distinction between laws that regulate the
    manner in which individuals may exercise their Second
    Amendment right, and laws that amount to a total prohibition
    of the right. See 
    Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1138
    ; accord Heller 
    II, 670 F.3d at 1251
    –58 (reasoning that gun-registration
    requirements do not severely burden the Second Amendment
    because they do not “prevent[] an individual from possessing
    a firearm in his home or elsewhere”); 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 97
    (distinguishing between a law requiring handguns to
    bear original serial numbers, and Heller’s law prohibiting the
    possession of handguns). The UHA is of the former
    variety—regulation of the manner of use, not
    possession—and thus affects Second Amendment rights less
    severely. See 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 827
    (“[L]aws which
    regulate only the ‘manner in which persons may exercise
    their Second Amendment rights’ are less burdensome than
    those which bar firearm possession completely.” (citation
    omitted)).
    16                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    The CLI, MDM, and microstamping requirements place
    almost no burden on the physical exercise of Second
    Amendment rights. There is no evidence that CLIs or
    microstamping interferes with the functioning of any arms.
    Although MDMs might prevent a gun from firing at will, it is
    likely a rare occurrence when someone has time to put a
    round from outside a magazine in the chamber without
    inserting the magazine itself. CLIs and MDMs are designed
    to make the handgun owner aware of when there is
    ammunition in the chamber. That feature not only prevents
    accidental discharges—which itself protects “hearth and
    home”—but also informs the owner when the gun is loaded
    so that the weapon may be fired in self-defense.
    Perhaps recognizing the absence of a physical burden,
    Purchasers assert a substantial burden because the UHA
    precludes them from buying in California the majority of
    Smith & Wesson’s handguns, two of Ruger’s most popular
    models, and the fourth generation of Glocks. But being
    unable to purchase a subset of semiautomatic weapons,
    without more, does not significantly burden the right to self-
    defense in the home. See 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    (“[T]he
    Second Amendment right is not unlimited. . . . [T]he right
    was not a right to keep and carry any weapon whatsoever in
    any manner whatsoever and for whatever purpose.”).
    Indeed, all of the plaintiffs admit that they are able to buy
    an operable handgun suitable for self-defense—just not the
    exact gun they want. Purchasers have adduced little evidence
    that the handguns unavailable for purchase in California are
    materially more effective for self-defense than handguns
    PENA V. LINDLEY                              17
    currently for sale in the state.8 See 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 968
    (looking at self-defense effectiveness during this inquiry).9
    Contrary to Purchasers’ assertion, the severity of the burden
    is not “obvious[].”
    Any burden on the right is lessened by the UHA’s
    exceptions, which allow for the purchase of firearms that do
    not have the CLI, MDM, and microstamping features. See
    
    Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1138
    (holding that a “substantial[]
    8
    The evidence is slim. One Purchaser was born without a right arm
    and wishes to buy a Glock with an ambidextrous magazine release, which
    is better suited for left-handed people. A similar Glock model is listed on
    the CDOJ roster, except it does not include the ambidextrous release.
    Apparently, the CDOJ determined that the ambidextrous release was not
    purely a cosmetic change and declined to list the model without going
    through its testing and registration protocols. Two others wish to purchase
    handguns not on the roster. A fourth wishes to purchase a firearm that is
    on the roster, but in a different color. Apparently, the manufacturer has
    not yet paid the fee to submit that change to the CDOJ to see if the gun
    can be listed as cosmetically “similar” to the model already on the roster.
    9
    Purchasers point to the declining number of handguns listed on the
    roster. At the end of 2013, the CDOJ’s handgun roster contained 1,273
    handguns and 883 semiautomatics. As of oral argument in March 2017,
    it contained 744 handguns and 496 semiautomatics. Roster of Handguns
    Certified for Sale, CAL. DEP’T JUST., http://certguns.doj.ca.gov (last
    visited Mar. 2, 2017). But simply showing that the number of entries on
    the roster has decreased does not tell us much about whether the
    availability of handguns has declined in a way relevant to the Second
    Amendment. It is not the number of handguns on the roster that matters,
    it is the impact on self-defense in the home. Some handguns might not be
    on the roster for the simple reason that they have not been submitted to
    DOJ for testing for reasons wholly unrelated to CLIs, MDMs, and
    microstamping. And, handguns could have fallen off the list simply
    because no one paid the fee to keep them on. The mere fact of a declining
    number of rostered handguns does not satisfy Purchasers’ obligation to
    show a substantial burden.
    18                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    burden[] . . . is lightened by . . . exceptions”). For example,
    Purchasers may buy handguns without the three features if
    such firearms are grandfathered on the roster, and may buy
    off-roster handguns in private transactions. There is no
    evidence in the record that the hundreds of firearms available
    for purchase are inadequate for self-defense. See 
    Decastro, 682 F.3d at 168
    (“[A] law that regulates the availability of
    firearms is not a substantial burden on the right to keep and
    bear arms if adequate alternatives remain for law-abiding
    citizens to acquire a firearm for self-defense.”).
    Because the UHA does not effect a substantial burden, we
    conclude that intermediate scrutiny is adequate to protect the
    claimed Second Amendment rights at issue here.
    C. Application of Intermediate Scrutiny to the UHA
    Provisions
    Intermediate scrutiny requires (1) a significant,
    substantial, or important government objective, and (2) a
    “reasonable fit” between the challenged law and the asserted
    objective. Jackson v. City & Cty. of San Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 965 (9th Cir. 2014). The government must show that the
    regulation “promotes a ‘substantial government interest that
    would be achieved less effectively absent the regulation,’”
    but not necessarily that the chosen regulation is the “least
    restrictive means” of achieving the government’s interest.
    
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000
    (quoting 
    Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1139
    ).
    When considering California’s justifications for the
    statute, we do not impose an “unnecessarily rigid burden of
    proof,” and we allow California to rely on any material
    “reasonably believed to be relevant” to substantiate its
    interests in gun safety and crime prevention. Mahoney v.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        19
    Sessions, 
    871 F.3d 873
    , 881 (9th Cir. 2017). Hence, our
    analysis of whether there is a “reasonable fit between the
    government’s stated objective and the regulation” considers
    “the legislative history of the enactment as well as studies in
    the record or cited in pertinent case law.” 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000
    (9th Cir. 2015) (internal citations marks omitted).
    It is important to note that we are weighing a legislative
    judgment, not evidence in a criminal trial. Because
    legislatures are “not obligated, when enacting [their] statutes,
    to make a record of the type that an administrative agency or
    court does to accommodate judicial review,” we should not
    conflate legislative findings with “evidence” in the technical
    sense. Minority Television Project, Inc. v. F.C.C., 
    736 F.3d 1192
    , 1199 (9th Cir. 2013) (en banc) (internal citations and
    quotation marks omitted).
    Nor do we substitute our own policy judgment for that of
    the legislature. 
    Id. When policy
    disagreements exist in the
    form of conflicting legislative “evidence,” we “owe [the
    legislature’s] findings deference in part because the
    institution is far better equipped than the judiciary to amass
    and evaluate the vast amounts of data bearing upon legislative
    questions.” Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v. F.C.C., 
    520 U.S. 180
    ,
    195 (1997) (internal citations and quotation marks omitted);
    see also 
    id. (“In reviewing
    the constitutionality of a statute,
    courts must accord substantial deference to the predictive
    judgments of Congress.” (internal quotation marks omitted)).
    “It is not our function to appraise the wisdom of
    [California’s] decision to require” new semiautomatic gun
    models manufactured in-state to incorporate new technology;
    instead, the state “must be allowed a reasonable opportunity
    to experiment with solutions to admittedly serious problems.”
    City of Renton v. Playtime Theaters, Inc., 
    475 U.S. 41
    , 52
    20                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    (1986). These principles apply equally to benchmarking the
    efficacy as well as the technological feasibility of the
    regulations. Therefore, in the face of policy disagreements, or
    even conflicting legislative evidence, “we must allow the
    government to select among reasonable alternatives in its
    policy decisions.” Peruta v. Cty. of San Diego, 
    824 F.3d 919
    ,
    944 (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc) (Graber, J., concurring), cert.
    denied, 
    137 S. Ct. 1995
    (2017); accord Kachalsky v. Cty. of
    Westchester, 
    701 F.3d 81
    , 99 (2d Cir. 2012) (“It is the
    legislature’s job, not ours, to weigh conflicting evidence and
    make policy judgments.”).
    Our role is not to re-litigate a policy disagreement that the
    California legislature already settled, and we lack the means
    to resolve that dispute. Fortunately, that is not our task. See
    City of 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 51
    –52. And, as required by
    precedent, California’s evidence “fairly support[ed]” its
    conclusions. 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 969
    .
    1. The CLI and MDM Requirements
    There is no doubt that the governmental safety interests
    identified for the CLI and MDM requirements are substantial.
    California represents that the legislature’s goal in requiring
    CLIs and MDMs “was targeting the connection between
    cheaply made, unsafe handguns and injuries to firearms
    operators and crime.” These interests are undoubtedly
    adequate. See, e.g., Schenck v. Pro-Choice Network of W.
    N.Y., 
    519 U.S. 357
    , 376 (1997); 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 965
    –66;
    see also 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 827
    (“[The statute at issue] has
    . . . the objective of promoting safety and reducing gun
    violence. The parties agree that these objectives are
    important. The first step is undisputedly satisfied.”).
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       21
    The CLI and MDM requirements also reasonably fit with
    California’s interest in public safety. A CLI lets someone
    know that a gun is loaded without even having to pick it up to
    check; it acts as a red flag for those handling the gun who
    may have forgotten that it was loaded. An MDM prevents a
    firearm from shooting unless a magazine is inserted. Without
    an MDM, a magazine-equipped pistol can be fired if there is
    a bullet in the chamber, even if the magazine has not been
    inserted.
    In one sense then, an MDM disables a gun capable of
    providing self-defense. But the practical effect strikes us as
    a rare instance. Because it is more likely that people will
    associate firearms that have magazines with loaded firearms
    and firearms that do not have magazines with unloaded
    firearms, the legislature could reasonably predict that the
    MDM could prevent accidental discharges of the weapon.
    The legislative judgment that preventing cases of accidental
    discharge outweighs the need for discharging a gun without
    the magazine in place is reasonable. The legislative history
    cites studies confirming this common-sense conclusion.
    Purchasers do not provide any reliable evidence that these
    studies are incorrect or that CLIs or MDMs will clearly
    thwart, rather than advance, California’s goal of saving lives
    by preventing accidental discharges. The fit between the
    prevention of accidental discharges and the requiring of CLIs
    and MDMs on not-yet-rostered handguns is a reasonable one.
    Purchasers argue that the UHA’s requirements have
    “nothing to do with consumer safety” because the UHA
    “exempts specially-favored individuals whose safety is no
    less important[] [and] mandates alleged ‘safety’ features that
    California instructs consumers to ignore as unreliable.”
    Purchasers point to exemptions in the UHA for law
    22                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    enforcement, entertainment industry-related props, intra-
    family transfers, and private-party transfers. See, e.g., CAL.
    PENAL CODE §§ 32000(b)(4) (law enforcement), 32110(a)
    (private party transfer), 32110(h) (entertainment industry
    props), 27875 (intra-family transfers). Although Purchasers
    are correct that these groups are exempt from the UHA, that
    underinclusiveness does not doom the MDM and CLI
    requirements under intermediate scrutiny. See Minority
    Television 
    Project, 736 F.3d at 1204
    (“Unlike strict scrutiny,
    intermediate scrutiny does not require that the means . . . be
    the least restrictive.”). The exceptions are not so pervasive or
    without basis as to make the fit unreasonable.
    Purchasers further fault the UHA because “not every
    aspect of the roster obviously advances the state’s regulatory
    interest.” Purchasers argue that once a gun has been deemed
    “safe” and put on the roster and then falls off the roster for
    administrative reasons, California has no interest in deeming
    it “unsafe.”      We do not agree.          Although purely
    administrative reasons may not have anything to do with a
    weapon’s performance and safety—just as not having a
    current driver’s license is not proof that the driver is not a
    safe driver—we will not interfere with the orderly
    administration of California’s roster. We are not here to
    order California to re-list weapons where the manufacturers
    or importers have otherwise failed to comply with California
    law.
    Purchasers also argue that California “teaches consumers
    to disregard [CLIs] and [MDMs], [so] requiring handguns to
    have these features actually impedes the state’s safety
    interests.” Amicus briefs filed in support of Purchasers add
    that the regulations, by encouraging people to look for or rely
    on a CLI or a MDM, respectively, “inevitably discourage[]
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       23
    individuals from actually checking to see whether a firearm
    is loaded.” This, amici tell us, “may increase the likelihood
    of an unintentional discharge.” We disagree. California does
    not instruct consumers to disregard CLIs and MDMs.
    Instead, the regulations simply mean that consumers should
    not rely entirely on them or assume that just because a
    magazine is out or the CLI is not popped up, the weapon is
    incapable of being dangerous. “Treat all guns as if they are
    loaded,” California tells gun-owners. That is just good, old-
    fashioned common sense. Cf. United States v. Carona,
    
    660 F.3d 360
    , 368–69 (9th Cir. 2011) (“That some wear a belt
    and suspenders does not prove the inadequacy of either to
    hold up the pants, but only the cautious nature of the person
    wearing the pants.” (citation omitted)).
    We conclude that the CLI and MDM regulations pass
    intermediate scrutiny. See Draper v. Healey, 
    98 F. Supp. 3d 77
    , 85 (D. Mass. 2015) (holding that Massachusetts’ CLI and
    MDM regulations pass “any standard of scrutiny”), aff’d on
    other grounds, 
    827 F.3d 1
    (1st Cir. 2016).
    2. The Microstamping Requirement
    The UHA’s microstamping requirement also passes
    constitutional muster under intermediate scrutiny. Purchasers
    acknowledge that California’s two stated objectives for the
    microstamping requirement—public safety and crime
    prevention—are substantial government interests. Countless
    cases support this concession. See, e.g., 
    Schenck, 519 U.S. at 376
    (public safety); United States v. Salerno, 
    481 U.S. 739
    ,
    750 (1987) (crime prevention).            More specifically,
    “preserving the ability of law enforcement to conduct serial
    number tracing—effectuated by limiting the availability of
    untraceable firearms—constitutes a substantial or important
    24                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    interest.” United States v. Marzzarella, 
    614 F.3d 85
    , 98 (3d
    Cir. 2010). Serial number tracing “enabl[es] law enforcement
    to gather vital information about recovered firearms.” 
    Id. The same
    logic applies to recovered bullets, and counsels the
    conclusion that limiting the availability of untraceable bullets
    serves a substantial government interest.
    California also has established a “reasonable fit” between
    these substantial interests and the microstamping
    requirement.      The legislative history supporting the
    microstamping provision describes California’s “enormous
    and diverse” problem regarding unsolved homicides
    committed with handguns. In approximately 45 percent of all
    homicides in California, no arrests are made because police
    lack the needed evidence, and more than 60 percent of the
    homicides in California are committed with handguns.
    According to the legislative history, microstamping would
    “provide rapid leads in the first crucial hours after a
    homicide” because police could match a bullet found at a
    crime scene with the registered owner. This data is
    particularly critical in drive-by-shootings, the legislature
    observes, where the only evidence at the crime scene may be
    spent cartridges. California is dealing with a real-world
    problem and has crafted a real-world solution.
    The California legislature considered and rejected other,
    more intrusive solutions to combat the unsolved homicide-by-
    handgun problem. The legislature found that microstamping
    technology improved the accuracy of ballistic identification
    “without requiring the manpower and expense associated
    with the creation and maintenance of a ballistic image
    database containing millions of images.” Purchasers do not
    suggest a less invasive approach to curbing unsolved handgun
    homicides.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                             25
    Instead, Purchasers contest California’s evidence that
    microstamping will address the problem effectively.
    California presented evidence that existing microstamping
    technology is accurate 96 percent of the time. Purchasers
    caution that the microstamping technology is not as reliable
    as California claims. The standard does not demand that
    California’s solution be a perfect one. At the time it
    considered this provision, the California legislature weighed
    competing evidence on effectiveness before enacting the
    statute. California’s evidence need only “fairly support[]” its
    conclusions. 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 969
    . California has gone
    well beyond this threshold requirement.
    Purchasers also argue that microstamping is
    impracticable.10 Although this case involves the Purchasers,
    not the manufacturers, the Purchasers cloak their argument in
    the language of the producers. The reality is not that
    manufacturers cannot meet the standard but rather that they
    have chosen not to. Purchasers offered evidence that gun
    manufacturers have not “produced a functioning,
    commercially available semiautomatic pistol” equipped with
    the microstamping technology and they “have no plans to
    attempt to do so.” The declarations offered are “lacking in
    details,” as the dissent candidly notes, and rest on conclusory
    language, such as “appears infeasible” or “cannot practically
    implement.” Simply because no gun manufacturer is “even
    10
    The California Supreme Court recently ordered judgment in favor
    of California in a challenge brought to invalidate the UHA as “impossible”
    to comply with under state law, observing that the plaintiffs had not
    “petitioned for a writ of mandate against the [California] Department of
    Justice for improperly certifying the availability of dual placement
    microstamping technology.” Nat’l Shooting Sports Found., Inc. v. State,
    No. S239397, 
    2018 WL 3150950
    , at *4 (Cal. June 28, 2018).
    26                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    considering trying” to implement the technology, it does not
    follow that microstamping is technologically infeasible.
    Notably, the parties agree that semiautomatic handguns
    are not subject to the microstamping requirement and are
    grandfathered as long as the manufacturer continues to pay a
    roster fee and the firearms do not fail a retest. We thus find
    it odd, indeed, that the manufacturers indirectly assert a right
    to sell new models of—modern—semiautomatic handguns,
    but refuse to modernize their firearms by installing
    microstamping features. We need not accept wholesale that
    manufacturers will decline to implement this new public
    safety technology in the face of California’s evidence that the
    technology is available and that compliance is feasible.11
    It is ironic that Purchasers filed a cross-motion for
    summary judgment, agreeing with California that “[t]his
    case’s essential facts are not in dispute.” As Purchasers lay
    out in their cross-motion:
    11
    The argument here echoes a similar one made for decades about
    airbags. See Chrysler Corp. v. Dep’t of Transp., 
    472 F.2d 659
    (6th Cir.
    1972) (“The petitioners next contend that Standard 208 is not practicable
    because airbag technology is not, at present, developed to the point where
    airbags can be installed in all presently manufactured cars.”); Frank
    Waters, Air Bag Litigation: Plaintiffs, Start Your Engines, 13 Pepp. L.
    Rev. 4 (1986) (“There is mounting concern that because automobile
    manufacturers and governmental agencies have not been successful in
    paving the way toward air bag installation, consumers may never receive
    the benefit of this lifesaving device.”); Nat’l Highway Traffic Safety
    Admin., Airbags, available at http://www.nhtsa.gov/equipment/air-bags
    (“In 25 years—from 1987 to 2012—frontal air bags saved 39,976 lives.”).
    As with that debate, it may be that protests about technical ability to
    comply reflect a reluctance to comply.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       27
    Defendant admits that no handguns for sale in
    the United States have the microstamping
    technology required by California’s roster
    law. No firearms manufacturer has submitted
    any microstamping-compliant handguns, and
    Defendant has no information as to whether
    any manufacturer will ever produce
    microstamping handguns. Accordingly, the
    microstamping requirement imposes a de
    facto ban on the sale of all new semiautomatic
    handgun models in California.
    For Purchasers, it is enough that manufacturers say that they
    will not and “cannot” comply. But that begs the question of
    the deference we provide to California’s lawmakers, who
    made a considered judgment.
    California’s evidence carries the day in the legislative
    context. The state produced evidence that compliance with
    the microstamping requirement is “technologically possible”
    and would cost an incremental $3.00 to $10.00 per gun. By
    2008, the inventor of microstamping had publicly tested the
    technology with local police departments across the country.
    In those tests, he gave microstamping-equipped firearms and
    cartridges to local range officers so that they could observe
    the stamped cartridges and extract their codes. Overall, the
    technology was publicly tested seven times with seven
    different police departments, including in Sacramento and
    Los Angeles before the law was enacted. In addition to this
    critical evidence, the legislature considered studies showing
    that microstamping technology generally works.
    Throughout the legislative process and in this litigation,
    the state has reasonably relied on Todd Lizotte, the inventor
    28                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    of microstamping. For over fifteen years, Lizotte has shared
    his expertise by testifying before state legislative committees,
    conducting public tests, and contributing to articles that
    appear in law enforcement periodicals, technical journals, and
    newspapers. During consideration of the UHA, Lizotte
    answered technical questions from the drafting committee,
    and the legislative history contains multiple references to
    Lizotte and his company, NanoMark Technologies. Given
    his extensive firsthand knowledge, it is significant that
    Lizotte concluded that “20 years of development, testing and
    public demonstrations show that microstamping can be
    implemented,” that “[p]rinting two separate codes on the
    firing pin is feasible,” and that “it is possible for firearm
    manufacturers to implement microstamping technology
    contemplated by the California legislation.”
    The judgment California made about technological
    feasibility is no less predictive than the judgment on efficacy.
    In both cases, the legislators reviewed the record, including
    conflicting testimony. We cannot countenance the dissent’s
    effort to draw an artificial distinction and hold California to
    a standard never before imposed. The dissent suggests that
    California must produce specific evidence of compliance with
    its own microstamping requirement in a “laboratory.” But the
    state need not don lab coats, equip semiautomatic firearms
    with microstamping technology, and test the technological
    feasibility results itself. That is far too exacting a standard of
    “proof” in the context of intermediate legislative scrutiny.
    See City of 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 52
    . In effect, the dissent
    would transform the state into a gun manufacturer. Instead,
    California may “predict[]” as a policy judgment that gun
    manufacturers are capable of outfitting firearms with
    “available” technology when experts state that compliance is
    technologically “feasible.” Turner, 
    520 U.S. 16
    at 195.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        29
    Reliance on experts is particularly understandable here, since
    a government “considering an innovative solution may not
    have data that could demonstrate the efficacy of its proposal
    because the solution would, by definition, not have been
    implemented previously.” Alameda 
    Books, 535 U.S. at 439
    –40 (O’Connor, J., announcing the judgment of the court).
    California’s microstamping requirement is the first of its
    kind, an “experimental” solution “to admittedly serious
    problems.” City of 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 52
    . The
    microstamping requirement only became effective after the
    CDOJ certified that the technology “is available to more than
    one manufacturer unencumbered by any patent restrictions.”
    It bears noting that a second microstamping law became
    effective this year, in the District of Columbia. See D.C.
    Code Ann. §§ 7-2504.08; 7-2505.03. The District initially set
    its applicability date “in order to incorporate best practices
    learned from California’s experience” and “to allow the
    model being developed in California to be refined.” District
    of Columbia Committee Report, B. 18-963 (2010). As
    Justice Brandeis famously wrote, “a single courageous state
    may, if its citizens choose, serve as a laboratory,” and “try
    novel [legislative] experiments.” New State Ice Co. v.
    Liebmann, 
    285 U.S. 262
    , 311 (1932) (Brandeis, J., dissenting)
    (emphasis added).        But we have never forced an
    experimenting state to prove its policymaking judgment with
    scientific precision, especially when expert opinion supports
    the decision.
    Even if microstamping proves technologically infeasible
    or ineffective, the UHA authorizes an alternative process: The
    California Attorney General “may also approve a method of
    equal or greater reliability and effectiveness in identifying the
    specific serial number of a firearm from spent cartridge
    30                       PENA V. LINDLEY
    casings discharged by that firearm than that which is set forth
    in this paragraph.” CAL. PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(7)(B).12
    Microstamping or an authorized alternative may indeed
    “represent[] an important advance in the techniques used by
    law enforcement to serve legitimate police concerns.” See
    Maryland v. King, 
    133 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1975 (2013). In King, the
    Supreme Court justified additional Fourth Amendment
    intrusion because of DNA technology’s promise in serving
    “important” identification interests:
    DNA identification is an advanced technique
    superior to fingerprinting in many ways, so
    much so that to insist on fingerprints as the
    norm would make little sense to either the
    forensic expert or a layperson. The additional
    intrusion upon the arrestee’s privacy beyond
    that associated with fingerprinting is not
    significant . . . and DNA is a markedly more
    accurate form of identifying arrestees.
    
    Id. at 1976.
    The Court held that DNA identification secured
    by swabbing the inside of an arrestee’s cheek is “no more
    than an extension of methods of identification long used in
    dealing with persons under arrest” and so did not violate the
    Fourth Amendment’s protection against unreasonable
    searches. 
    Id. at 1977
    (internal citation omitted).
    Similarly, microstamping is an extension of identification
    methods long used in imprinting serial numbers on guns. The
    Third Circuit upheld under heightened scrutiny a statute
    12
    Such alternative method must also be “unencumbered by any patent
    restrictions.” 
    Id. PENA V.
    LINDLEY                               31
    punishing receipt or possession of any firearm on which the
    manufacturer’s serial number was removed, obliterated, or
    altered. See 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 98
    –99. The court held
    that “[r]egulating the possession of unmarked firearms . . . fits
    closely with the interest in ensuring the traceability of
    weapons,” and so 18 U.S.C. § 922(k) survives intermediate
    scrutiny. 
    Id. at 99.13
    During consideration of the UHA, the California
    legislature considered microstamping to be a modification on
    the federal serial number law upheld by the Third Circuit. As
    in King, any additional constitutional intrusion beyond
    requiring serial numbers is “not significant” and justified by
    “scientific 
    advancements.” 133 S. Ct. at 1975
    –76. Indeed,
    “new technology will only further improve” microstamping’s
    effectiveness. 
    Id. at 1977
    .
    We are not convinced that the microstamping requirement
    impinges any further on Second Amendment rights than the
    serial number law approved in Marzzarella. That law
    punishes receipt or possession—in addition to sale or
    transfer—of any firearm on which the manufacturer’s serial
    number was removed, obliterated, or 
    altered. 614 F.3d at 88
    n.1 (citing 18 U.S.C. § 922(k)). California law does not go so
    far—it does not ban possession or use of guns manufactured
    without microstamping features. Instead, the UHA sanctions
    only someone who “manufactures,” “imports into the state for
    sale,” “keeps for sale,” “offers or exposes for sale,” or “gives
    13
    18 U.S.C. § 922(k) makes it “unlawful for any person knowingly
    to transport, ship, or receive . . . any firearm which has had the importer’s
    or manufacturer’s serial number removed, obliterated, or altered or to
    possess or receive any firearm which has had the importer’s or
    manufacturer’s serial number removed, obliterated, or altered.”
    32                   PENA V. LINDLEY
    or lends an unsafe handgun.” CAL. PENAL CODE § 32000(a).
    The microstamping restrictions on commercial manufacture
    and sale implicate the rights of gun owners far less than laws
    directly punishing the possession of handguns. See D.C. v.
    Heller, 
    554 U.S. 570
    , 627 (2008); Teixeira v. Cty. of
    Alameda, 
    2017 WL 4509038
    , at *8 (9th Cir. Oct. 10, 2017)
    (en banc) (“[G]un buyers have no right to have a gun store in
    a particular location, at least as long as their access is not
    meaningfully constrained.”). In addition, the law at issue in
    Marzzarella applies to “any firearm” that once had a serial
    number. The microstamping provision, however, regulates
    only new models of semiautomatic weapons offered for sale
    in California after May 2013.
    California is entitled to “a reasonable opportunity to
    experiment with solutions to admittedly serious problems.”
    City of 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 52
    . The microstamping
    requirement need not be “the least restrictive means of”
    reducing the number of unsolved handgun homicides.
    
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 966
    . California has met its burden to
    show that microstamping is reasonably tailored to address the
    substantial problem of untraceable bullets at crime scenes and
    the value of a reasonable means of identification.
    Accordingly, the requirement passes intermediate scrutiny.
    II. EQUAL PROTECTION CLAUSE
    Purchasers also claim that the UHA’s three requirements
    violate the Equal Protection Clause of the Fourteenth
    Amendment. We disagree. To the extent that the Equal
    Protection challenge is based on the Second Amendment’s
    fundamental right to bear arms and the disparate treatment of
    groups in exercising that right, as recognized by McDonald,
    that challenge is subsumed in the Second Amendment inquiry
    PENA V. LINDLEY                              33
    above. See Orin v. Barclay, 
    272 F.3d 1207
    , 1213 (9th Cir.
    2001) (treating an “equal protection claim as subsumed by,
    and co-extensive with, his First Amendment claim”).
    Purchasers do not allege that they are part of any suspect
    or quasi-suspect class.14 “[A] statutory classification [that
    treats similarly situated persons differently] that neither
    proceeds along suspect lines nor infringes fundamental
    constitutional rights must be upheld against equal protection
    challenge if there is any reasonably conceivable state of facts
    that could provide a rational basis for the classification.”
    FCC v. Beach Commc’ns, Inc., 
    508 U.S. 307
    , 313 (1993); see
    Freeman v. City of Santa Ana, 
    68 F.3d 1180
    , 1187 (9th Cir.
    1995) (requiring, as a prerequisite, that there be a “similarly
    situated” class of persons (citation omitted)). Thus, the
    regulations need do no more than “bear[] a rational relation
    to some legitimate end.” Romer v. Evans, 
    517 U.S. 620
    , 631
    (1996). Purchasers “have the burden ‘to negative every
    conceivable basis which might support it,’” and each basis
    will be afforded a “strong presumption of validity.” 
    FCC, 508 U.S. at 314
    –15. But Purchasers have failed to carry that
    burden and demonstrate that any of the differences in
    treatment by the UHA challenged here lack a rational basis.
    Purchasers challenge the UHA’s exceptions for sales to
    sworn members of law enforcement agencies, sales of curios
    14
    Purchasers allege that the UHA discriminates “on the basis of state
    residence” and this “normally triggers strict scrutiny.” But because
    Purchasers pursue this line of reasoning no further—and, in fact, admit
    that strict scrutiny has not been used when laws discriminate against in-
    state residents as opposed to out-of-state residents—it is forfeited. See
    Greenwood v. FAA, 
    28 F.3d 971
    , 977 (9th Cir. 1994) (refusing to
    manufacture arguments for an appellant who made bare assertions in an
    opening brief).
    34                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    and relics, and use in movie and television productions. See
    CAL. PENAL CODE §§ 32000(b)(3), (4), 32110(h). But we
    have already said that “[i]t is manifestly rational for at least
    most categories of peace officers to possess and use firearms
    more potent than those available to the rest of the populace in
    order to maintain public safety.” Silveira v. Lockyer,
    
    312 F.3d 1052
    , 1089 (9th Cir. 2003), abrogated on other
    grounds by Heller, 
    544 U.S. 570
    . Purchasers point out that
    the UHA’s exception does not limit law enforcement officers
    to use of their weapons only during “official duties.” Even
    so, the legislature could rationally conclude that because law
    enforcement officers receive extensive training and are
    expected to respond to emergencies even when off duty, such
    safety provisions might not be necessary for them. That is a
    rational explanation.
    Purchasers’ challenge to the exceptions for curios and
    relics and weapons used in film and television also have a
    rational justification.     The curios-and-relics provision
    grandfathers “[f]irearms which are of special interest to
    collectors by reason of some quality other than is associated
    with firearms intended for sporting use or as offensive or
    defensive weapons.” 27 C.F.R. § 478.11, para. Curios or
    Relics; see CAL. PENAL CODE § 32000(b)(3) (incorporating
    the federal definition found at 27 C.F.R. § 478.11). These
    include firearms more than fifty years old, “curios or relics of
    museum interest,” and firearms valuable because they are
    “novel, rare, bizarre, [or associated with] some historical
    figure, period, or event.” 27 C.F.R. § 478.11, para. Curios or
    Relics, subsec. (a)–(c). Because collectors hold these
    weapons for reasons other than “as offensive or defensive
    weapons,” the exemption is a rational one. Similarly, the
    video-production exemption is rational because those
    weapons, one anticipates, are not intended to be used for live
    PENA V. LINDLEY                           35
    fire. The fit of these exemptions may not be perfect—and we
    express no view how these exceptions might fare under more
    exacting standards of scrutiny—but it is sufficient to satisfy
    rational basis scrutiny.
    For the foregoing reasons, we affirm the district court’s
    grant of summary judgment in favor of California.
    AFFIRMED.
    BYBEE, Circuit Judge, concurring in part and dissenting in
    part:
    Under California’s Unsafe Handgun Act (UHA), any new
    semiautomatic handguns commercially sold in the state must
    be equipped with three technical features: a chamber load
    indicator (CLI), a magazine detachment mechanism (MDM),
    and microstamping.1 CAL. PENAL CODE §§ 32000(a),
    31910(b)(1)–(7). For the reasons explained in the majority
    opinion, I agree that intermediate scrutiny applies to
    Plaintiffs’ Second Amendment challenge. I also agree that
    there is a reasonable fit between the CLI and MDM
    requirements and the State’s substantial interest in enhancing
    public safety. See United States v. Chovan, 
    735 F.3d 1127
    ,
    1139 (9th Cir. 2013) (“[T]he intermediate scrutiny standard
    . . . require[s] (1) the government’s stated objective to be
    significant, substantial, or important; and (2) a reasonable fit
    between the challenged regulation and the asserted
    1
    The UHA exempts from these three requirements any handguns that
    were “already listed on the roster” of approved handguns before the
    requirements were enacted. See CAL. PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(5)–(7)(A).
    36                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    objective.”). Both mechanisms help prevent accidental
    handgun discharges by decreasing the likelihood that a person
    will mistakenly believe that the firing chamber is empty. I
    therefore join these portions of the majority opinion.2
    I part company with the majority, however, over the
    microstamping provision.3 Plaintiffs have raised two
    different points. First, they argue that the mechanism for
    stamping cartridge casings can be disabled by the owner, thus
    undoing the benefits of microstamping. The State and its
    amici emphasize that microstamping is a proven technology
    and that, even if some owners disable the microstamping
    mechanism, it will aid the police in solving crimes. They
    urge us to defer to the California legislature’s judgment on
    the overall usefulness of microstamping. The majority
    agrees. Pointing to “evidence that the technology is
    available,” Maj. Op. at 26; see also 
    id. at 27–28,
    the majority
    concludes that “California has gone well beyond [the]
    2
    I also join the majority opinion in concluding that the three
    provisions do not violate the Equal Protection Clause.
    3
    Microstamping is a mechanism that can imprint a cartridge casing
    “with a microscopic array of characters that identify the make, model, and
    serial number of the pistol” that fired the round. CAL. PENAL CODE
    § 31910(b)(7)(A). Microstamping involves laser micromachining
    alphanumeric characters linked to a handgun’s make, model, and serial
    number onto a handgun’s interior surfaces. Once a microstamped surface,
    such as the tip of the firing pin or the breech face, impacts the cartridge
    casing after the handgun is fired, that surface will imprint the casing with
    its identifying characters. If the police discover a spent casing from a
    microstamped handgun at a crime scene, they can examine it under a
    microscope and, in theory, discover legibly-imprinted characters. A
    simple database search would reveal who last registered the handgun that
    ejected the casing. The police would then have an important lead in their
    investigation.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        37
    threshold requirement” of showing that its evidence “fairly
    support[s] its conclusion,” 
    id. at 25
    (citation omitted). If the
    efficacy of microstamping as an aid to police forensics were
    the only issue before us, I would join the majority in its
    entirety; this is a policy question well-suited to legislative
    prediction. And even if microstamping is not a perfect
    solution, California is entitled to see whether microstamping
    will aid police in solving crime.
    But Plaintiffs raise a second argument, one that the
    majority largely ignores. Plaintiffs argue that the testing
    protocol adopted by the California Department of Justice
    (“CDOJ”) in its regulations is so demanding that no gun
    manufacturer can meet it. Plaintiffs have come forward with
    evidence that no new handguns being sold in the United
    States can satisfy CDOJ’s testing protocol and, therefore, no
    new handguns qualify for California’s approved-as-safe
    roster. The State argues that the technology is available, and
    that the manufacturers are just unwilling to submit to
    California’s requirements. This is an argument we cannot
    resolve on this record. So far as we can tell from the meager
    record before us, no one—including CDOJ—has ever tested
    any weapon against California’s protocol to see whether it is
    technologically feasible.       Plaintiffs claim that the
    microstamping requirement acts as a prohibition on the
    commercial sale of new handguns in California. On the
    record before us, I cannot conclude that the State is entitled
    to summary judgment on Plaintiffs’ challenge to the
    microstamping requirement, and that means that we must take
    Plaintiffs’ Second Amendment claims seriously.
    Under the appropriate Second Amendment analysis, I
    cannot conclude that there is a reasonable fit between CDOJ’s
    microstamping requirement and the legislature’s object in
    38                       PENA V. LINDLEY
    solving handgun crimes. The result of CDOJ’s restrictive
    testing protocol is undisputed: since at least 2013, no new
    handguns have been sold commercially in California, and that
    means that no guns were sold with the microstamping feature.
    That fact has an important secondary effect—it means that no
    new handguns are being sold commercially with the MDM
    and CLI safety features either.4
    The consequence is obvious. Today, no one in California
    can purchase handguns that have the safety features the
    legislature thought critical for saving lives, nor can any
    Californian purchase guns with the microstamping feature the
    legislature thought important to assist police. The only guns
    commercially sold in California are grandfathered from these
    provisions. This is a totally perverse result. If the legislature
    (or CDOJ, seeking to implement the legislature’s
    instructions) has adopted safety requirements that no gun
    manufacturer can satisfy, then the legislature has effectively
    banned the sale of new handguns in California. The effect of
    this result on our intermediate-scrutiny analysis is clear: the
    fit between California’s interest in solving handgun crimes
    and the microstamping requirement would not only fail to be
    reasonable, it would be non-existent. The requirement would
    severely restrict what handguns Californians can purchase
    without advancing the State’s interest in solving handgun
    crimes—or any government interest—one iota.
    4
    Some guns with CLIs and MDMs might have been approved before
    the microstamping requirement went into effect. Neither party has
    provided figures on how many handgun models on the UHA roster are
    equipped with CLIs and MDMs. But given the scarcity of these features
    nationwide, the vast majority of the handguns on the roster likely lack
    these safety features.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       39
    This result would surely violate the Second Amendment
    and therefore cries for a more searching inquiry than the
    majority has provided us. Here is how I will proceed. In Part
    I, I demonstrate that there is a conflict in the evidence as to
    whether any manufacturer can comply with California’s
    testing protocol. The majority confronts neither the
    conflicting evidence nor the possibility that California has
    effectively banned the commercial sale of all new handguns.
    It instead concludes—in a cursory fashion—that we must
    defer to the State because its legislature weighed the evidence
    of microstamping’s technological feasibility. Maj. Op. at 24.
    But as I discuss in Part II, the majority is in error both as a
    matter of law and fact. This deference is only appropriate for
    a legislative body’s predictive policy decisions—i.e., how
    effectively a law will advance the government’s stated
    interest. In contrast, Plaintiffs’ challenge to CDOJ’s
    microstamping protocol presents a more fundamental
    question of technological feasibility, one the legislature did
    not and, in fact, could not have addressed because it did not
    have the testing protocol before it.
    These defects reveal why, at step 2 of our Second
    Amendment inquiry, we cannot conclude on summary
    judgment that there is a reasonable fit between the
    microstamping requirement and the State’s goal in solving
    handgun crimes. But this disposition requires returning to
    step 1 and deciding whether the microstamping requirement
    burdens conduct protected under the Second Amendment—a
    point the majority assumed without deciding. I believe we
    must address the point rather than assume it. I thus conclude
    in Part III by discussing why the microstamping requirement
    is not, as the district court held, presumptively valid as a
    “law[] imposing conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms,” District of Columbia v. Heller,
    40                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    
    554 U.S. 570
    , 626–27 (2008), and requires the application of
    heightened scrutiny. I would reverse the district court and
    remand for further proceedings.
    If all of this feels complicated and backwards, welcome
    to the strange world of the Second Amendment.
    I
    The critical factual question raised by Plaintiffs is
    whether any handgun is capable of satisfying the testing
    protocol for microstamping set out in the UHA and its
    regulations. Plaintiffs’ challenge to the microstamping
    requirement is not over whether the technology generally
    works. There can be little doubt that microstamped handguns
    are capable of imprinting a cartridge casing with
    alphanumeric characters, and the technology’s inventor
    attests to having publicly tested the technology with police
    departments across the country. Plaintiffs have quibbled
    around the edges about the usefulness of microstamping, but
    even the studies that Plaintiffs cite demonstrate the
    technology’s general application. See, e.g., David Howitt et
    al., WHAT MICRO SERIALIZED FIRING PINS CAN ADD TO
    IDENTIFICATION IN FORENSIC SCIENCE, at 31–40 (2008);
    George G. Krivosta, NanotagTM Markings from Another
    Perspective, 38 AFTE J. 41, 43 (2006). The degree to which
    microstamping will in practice aid police investigations is not
    my concern. My sole interest is the conflicting evidence over
    whether CDOJ’s testing protocol can be satisfied by any gun
    manufacturer. Because the majority has not addressed these
    requirements, I will discuss the statute and its accompanying
    regulations and then address the evidence in the record.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                             41
    A
    In order to qualify for the UHA’s approved-as-safe roster,
    a handgun model must undergo testing by a state-certified
    laboratory. CAL. PENAL CODE § 32010(a)–(b); 11 CAL. CODE
    REGS. § 4059(a). The manufacturer must “provide[] three
    handguns of the make and model for which certification is
    sought,” and the lab must fire 600 rounds from each handgun.
    CAL. PENAL CODE § 31905(a)–(b). To ensure that the
    handgun model is capable of legibly microstamping the
    cartridge casings, the lab must fire 2 rounds from each
    handgun before the 600-round test, as well as 2 rounds after
    the test. 11 CAL. CODE REGS. § 4060(e)–(g). These 4 casings
    per handgun are the only casings the lab examines. 
    Id. § 4060(h).
    Using a “stereo zoom microscope,” the lab must
    verify that (1) “the pistol has transferred an imprint or etching
    in at least two places on each cartridge casing” and that
    (2) “the pistol’s complete FIN can be identified from the one
    or more etchings on each cartridge casing . . . .” 
    Id. § 4060(h)(1).
    The “FIN” is the firearm identification number,
    which must “consist of at least eight, but no more than 12,
    unique alpha and/or numeric characters that must begin with
    the manufacturer’s” identifying code. 
    Id. § 4049(j).
    This test
    is conducted on all three handguns of the model submitted for
    certification. 
    Id. § 4060(h)(3).
    The lab may certify that the
    model is microstamping compliant only if the examiner can
    identify the complete FIN from all twelve of the cartridge
    casings collected for testing.5 
    Id. Plaintiffs and
    their amici raise two specific objections to
    these requirements. First, they argue that microstamping
    5
    Four cartridge casings are collected from each of the three handguns
    submitted, for a total of twelve casings examined.
    42                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    technology is incapable of legibly imprinting casings
    consistently enough to ensure that all twelve casings are
    imprinted with the complete FIN. Second, Plaintiffs contend
    that no handgun can satisfy the requirement that each casing
    be imprinted “in at least two places . . . .” See 
    id. § 4060(h)(1);
    see also CAL. PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(7)(A).
    They assert that, while a handgun’s firing pin can sometimes
    successfully imprint a casing, the other internal
    surfaces—e.g., the breech face, extractor, ejector—are
    incapable of ever imprinting legible characters.
    Plaintiffs cite to studies and declarations in support of
    these troubling assertions. I will address this evidence
    momentarily, but the critical take-away is this: contrary to
    the majority’s assertion, Maj. Op. at 27–29, there is no
    indication in the brief legislative history included in the
    record before us that the state legislature, in enacting the
    UHA, considered either of these two impediments to
    certifying handguns as microstamping compliant. With
    regard to the examination of the twelve casings, the
    legislature could not have directly considered whether
    manufacturers could comply with this testing standard
    because CDOJ promulgated the regulation after the
    legislature amended the UHA to include the microstamping
    requirement. Similarly there is almost no mention in the
    legislative history of the dual-imprint requirement6 and no
    evidence that the legislature addressed whether a surface
    other than the firing pin could legibly imprint cartridge
    6
    This is not to say that the dual-imprint requirement was heedlessly
    added to the UHA or its regulations. The legislature originally considered
    a single-imprint requirement. It appears the legislature included the dual-
    imprint requirement to prevent criminals from circumventing
    microstamping by replacing or defacing a handgun’s firing pin.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                      43
    casings. Simply stated, the California legislature did not
    consider the concerns raised by Plaintiffs, to which I now
    turn.
    B
    Plaintiffs rely principally on declarations from industry
    representatives and academic studies. Their most detailed
    declaration comes from Lawrence Keane, who is the
    Secretary and General Counsel to the Sporting Arms and
    Ammunition Manufacturers’ Institute (“SAAMI”) and Senior
    Vice President, Assistant Secretary, and General Counsel to
    the National Shooting Sport Foundation (“NSSF”).
    According to Keane, NSSF is a trade association for the
    firearms industry, while SAAMI is an ANSI-accredited
    standards development organization for the industry’s test
    methods, definitive proof loads, and ammunition performance
    standards. Keane states:
    To date, I am not aware of a single handgun
    manufacturer worldwide that has produced a
    functioning, commercially available
    semiautomatic pistol designed and equipped
    with “a microscopic array of characters that
    identify the make, model, and serial number
    of the pistol” etched or otherwise imprinted in
    two or more places on the interior surface of
    internal working parts of the pistol, and that
    are transferred by imprinting on “each
    cartridge case when the firearm is fired.” I
    am unaware of any handgun manufacturer
    who has attempted, or is even considering
    trying, to design and equip a semiautomatic
    pistol incorporating this technology. NSSF
    44                   PENA V. LINDLEY
    and SAAMI handgun manufacturers have
    informed me and stated publicly that they
    cannot compl y wi t h C al ifornia’s
    microstamping requirements and have no
    plans to attempt to do so. The reason is
    simple, microstamping does not work.
    He further states that various “[i]ndependent, peer-reviewed
    studies, including ones by the inventor of microstamping,
    Todd Lizotte, have confirmed that firearm microstamping is
    unproven and unreliable to perform in the manner that the
    UHA requires.” According to Keane, “[b]ecause the
    microstamping requirement cannot be complied with, it is
    currently preventing scores of manufacturers, distributors and
    retailers from selling many semi-automatic pistol models in
    the State of California that are widely available in more or
    less every other state of the Union, because any such sales
    would subject them to criminal prosecution.” More
    specifically, he states that “[microstamping] certainly cannot
    produce the required markings at two locations on the
    cartridge case, as required by the law.” He repeats that
    “[b]ecause the microstamping requirement cannot be
    complied with,” manufacturers are not planning to sell in
    California. These “[c]ompanies have actually stopped doing
    business in California because of that requirement, not
    because they wished to cease operations there.” He
    concludes that the microstamping requirement “constitute[s]
    a de facto ban on handguns in California . . . .”
    Plaintiffs also provided declarations from two CEOs,
    Michael Fifer of Sturm, Ruger & Co., and James Debney of
    Smith & Wesson Corp. Their declarations are nearly
    identical, although Debney provides more detail. Fifer states
    that “Ruger believes that California’s microstamping
    PENA V. LINDLEY                         45
    regulations make compliance impossible. Quite simply, the
    state law requires the technology to perform at a level that
    Ruger cannot practically implement and, to our knowledge,
    has never been achieved by any manufacturer.” Debney
    states that “Smith & Wesson does not believe it is possible
    currently to comply with California’s microstamping
    regulations. Quite simply, the state law requires the
    technology to perform at a level that it cannot . . . . As it
    appears infeasible to comply with the CA DOJ
    microstamping regulations, Smith & Wesson does not have
    the ability or plans to incorporate microstamping in its semi-
    automatic handguns . . . .” He adds that Smith & Wesson
    currently produces California-compliant handguns and will
    continue to do so “as long as we do not make any changes to
    them,” because any changes Smith & Wesson makes would
    require CDOJ to test the weapons to keep them on the
    approved-as-safe roster.
    In addition, Plaintiffs and their declarants cite to several
    studies regarding microstamping’s technological feasability.
    One of the most insightful pieces of evidence is a 2013 study,
    in which Lizotte is listed as a co-author. See T. Grieve et al.,
    Gear Code Extraction from Microstamped Cartridges,
    45 AFTE J. 64 (2013). The study acknowledges that the
    alphanumeric characters microstamped on a casing can
    become “deformed, or partially removed due to the firing and
    cartridge ejection process . . . .” 
    Id. at 64.
    Indeed, the study
    focuses on the viability of additionally microstamping casings
    with a “circular gear code” as a failsafe “that could either fill
    in any gaps in a distorted alpha-numeric code, or be used to
    replicate the code if the alpha-numeric identifier is entirely
    illegible.” 
    Id. at 64–65
    (emphasis added). The study
    acknowledges that characters can become distorted when the
    primer is “struck twice”—presumably by the firing pin—and
    46                           PENA V. LINDLEY
    consequently smeared. 
    Id. at 68.
    It also notes that “[d]ouble
    strikes were especially prevalent in” one of the handgun
    models tested, 
    id., which indicates
    that a handgun’s ability to
    satisfy the UHA’s testing protocol may rely more on its make
    and model than on the progression of microstamping
    technology.
    Similarly, microstamping’s effectiveness appears to have
    almost as much to do with the type of ammunition used as it
    does with any other factor addressed so far. 
    Id. at 70
    (“Lacquered cartridges . . . posed problems during the optical
    and SEM evaluations, especially for the Hi-Point cartridges
    as it interfered with the transfer of the identifiers and the gear
    code.”); see also L.S. Chumbley et al., Clarity of
    Microstamped Identifiers as a Function of Primer Hardness
    and Type of Firearm Action, 44 AFTE J. 145, 153 (2012)
    (“[F]urther study is necessary before any definitive
    statements can be made concerning the effect of ammunition
    type. However, it is clear that the presence of lacquer is of
    paramount importance in identifier transfer.”).7 Finally, the
    2013 study also acknowledges that the ability to identify
    characters imprinted on a casing may depend on the use of a
    scanning electron microscope. 
    Grieve, supra, at 68
    . As I
    discuss immediately below, this equipment is not currently
    permitted under the UHA’s testing protocol and the use of
    only an optical microscope is unaccounted for in the State’s
    evidence.
    The State relies solely on a declaration from
    microstamping’s inventor, Todd Lizotte. Mostly notably,
    Lizotte describes a “stress test” he performed in 2007 with a
    Smith & Wesson .40 caliber handgun, which he equipped
    7
    Lizotte is also listed as a co-author of this 2012 study.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       47
    with a microstamped firing pin that he designed to work with
    that specific handgun model. Lizotte attests that, after firing
    over 2,500 rounds, “all eight microstamped digits from the
    firing pin were legible 97% of the time,” while “breech face
    markings transferred to cartridge casings were legible 96% of
    the time.” He further represents that,“[b]etween firing pin
    and breech face markings, all eight microstamped digits were
    identifiable in all cases.”
    These results are undeniably impressive, but they do not
    directly assuage the concerns regarding the UHA’s testing
    requirements because it is not clear that Lizotte’s 2007 stress
    test would satisfy California’s testing protocol, which did not
    even become effective until 2011. There are several
    problems.
    Although Lizotte reports a perfect rate of legibility when
    combining characters imprinted on casings by both the firing
    pin and breech face, there is a subtle but important caveat to
    this result: he identifies the imprinted characters through the
    use of both “optical microscopy and scanning electron
    microscopy techniques . . . .” The UHA’s regulations,
    however, prescribe the use of only a “stereo zoom
    microscope”—i.e., an optical microscope. 11 CAL. CODE
    REGS. § 4060(h)(1); see also 
    id. § 4052(b)(1)(A).
    In other
    words, Lizotte’s declaration never explains how often
    imprints are legible using only the equipment allowed for in
    the microstamping protocol.               Certainly handgun
    manufacturers and consumers would have reason for concern
    if these rates are relatively low. And this may very well be
    the case, as Lizotte has emphasized the importance of
    scanning electron microscopy in identifying imprinted
    characters. In countering the results of a study critical of
    48                       PENA V. LINDLEY
    microstamping’s technological feasibility,8 Lizotte asserted
    “that the results [the study] observed would have been
    different, and the markings would have been ‘fully legible,’
    if a more sophisticated method had been used to read the
    markings known as, ‘Scanning Electron Microscopy (SEM)
    . . . .’”
    Moreover, it is unclear from Lizotte’s declaration whether
    the modified handgun he used in the stress test imprinted
    each casing with two sets of microstamped characters. He
    does not state how often the breech face made an imprint, but
    only how many imprints were legible. Because each of the
    twelve casings examined during CDOJ’s certification
    procedure must be imprinted “in at least two places,” a low
    rate of breech-face imprints would also be troubling.
    In highlighting these informational deficits, it is not my
    intention to be critical of Lizotte’s work. He appears to be a
    responsible inventor and advocate who has placed his
    technology in the public domain in order to encourage
    microstamping’s adoption. But the State, in defending its
    implementation of a novel handgun restriction against a
    Second Amendment challenge, has relied solely on Lizotte’s
    nine-page declaration, which is not fully responsive to the
    concerns raised by Plaintiffs.
    The majority does not even mention any of this evidence.
    Rather, it offers a back-of-the-hand dismissal by concluding
    that “[t]he reality is” that gun manufacturers are merely
    8
    See 
    Krivosta, supra, at 43
    (testing microstamping in ten different
    handguns and concluding that “[t]he overall ratio of Satisfactory to
    Unsatisfactory impressions [imprinted on the casings] was 54 to 46”).
    PENA V. LINDLEY                               49
    unwilling to comply with the microstamping requirement.9
    See Maj. Op. at 25. The majority claims that the failure to
    produce a complying handgun is not evidence “that
    microstamping is technology infeasible.” Maj. Op. at 25–26.
    But Ruger’s CEO attests that California’s “law requires the
    technology to perform at a level that Ruger cannot practically
    implement and, to [his] knowledge, has never been achieved
    by any manufacturer.” I do not see how the majority gets to
    decide at summary judgment what “the reality is” when there
    is conflicting evidence in the record. While the declarations
    are certainly lacking in detail, they should not be construed so
    narrowly—especially considering that it is the State that bears
    the burden under intermediate scrutiny of proving that its law
    passes constitutional muster. After all, the State does not
    attempt to explain why gun manufacturers would forgo the
    opportunity of selling their new generations of handguns in
    a major market like California.
    9
    The majority’s conclusion that manufacturers are unwilling, not
    unable, to comply with California’s testing protocol is the subject of
    debate between two amici. NSSF/SAAMI point to the Keane Declaration.
    They explain that the dual-imprint requirement came about because the
    legislature was concerned that a firing pin could be easily altered by the
    weapon’s owner. They represent that the statute and regulations require
    a 100 percent success rate, which is beyond what any testing has shown.
    The Los Angeles City Attorney argues that NSSF/SAAMI “cherry-
    pick[ed] the facts they like, and mischaracteriz[ed] or omitt[ed] those they
    do not.” In the end, the L.A. City Attorney relies exclusively on Lizotte’s
    declaration, and concludes that “it is not that manufacturers can’t comply
    with the UHA’s microstamping requirement. It is that they won’t.”
    The majority just sided with the State in this debate. We don’t get to
    do that at summary judgment. Nor, as I discuss in the next section, do we
    have to side with the State out of deference to the legislature.
    50                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    The majority also summarily asserts that this suit has been
    brought by gun purchasers rather than gun manufacturers,
    implying that the inability of the latter to comply with the
    UHA is somehow irrelevant to Plaintiffs’ inability to
    purchase handguns. See Maj. Op. at 25. But Plaintiffs have
    not claimed that gun manufacturers have a right under the
    Second Amendment to produce the guns of the
    manufacturer’s choice. See Teixeira v. County of Alameda,
    
    873 F.3d 670
    , 681 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc) (rejecting a gun
    seller’s argument “that, independent of the rights of his
    potential customers [to acquire firearms], the Second
    Amendment grants him a right to sell firearms”), cert. denied,
    
    138 S. Ct. 1988
    (2018). Rather, Plaintiffs’ claim is based
    solely on their own inability to purchase handguns.
    Taken together, Plaintiffs’ evidence is impossible to
    reconcile with Lizotte’s declaration, which portrays
    microstamping as nearly infallible. We cannot assume that
    microstamping can satisfy the UHA’s testing protocol.10 In
    any other context, this conflict in the evidence would render
    this case inappropriate for decision on summary judgment.
    The district court was well aware of these factual disputes.
    Instead of resolving them, the court held that the commercial
    10
    The majority finds that California produced evidence that
    microstamping is technologically feasible and would cost between $3 and
    $10 per handgun, citing Lizotte’s demonstrations of microstamping with
    police departments. Maj. Op. at 27–28. But the majority stubbornly
    refuses to acknowledge the problem. As stated above, there can be little
    doubt that microstamped handguns are generally capable of imprinting a
    cartridge casing with alphanumeric characters. But there is conflict in the
    evidence before us whether any handgun can satisfy California’s
    microstamping testing protocol. The problem is not the legislation, but the
    regulations that implement the microstamping requirement. A testing
    protocol that cannot be satisfied is effectively a ban.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        51
    sales exception—which I discuss at length below—meant that
    the Second Amendment does not even apply to Plaintiffs’
    claims. The majority declines to affirm the district court on
    the grounds on which the court based its decision, assumes
    the Second Amendment applies, and then decides the factual
    conflict for itself. We should have sent this case back to the
    district court to resolve these factual issues.
    C
    The majority raises other arguments in defense of its
    decision to uphold the microstamping requirement in the face
    of conflicting evidence. These rationales are unavailing and,
    in large part, inapposite.
    The majority highlights aspects of the UHA that, in its
    view, offset Plaintiffs’ central contention that the requirement
    effectively bans the sale of new handguns. It cites, for
    instance, the fact that “[t]he microstamping requirement only
    became effective after the CDOJ certified that the technology
    ‘is available to more than one manufacturer unencumbered by
    any patent restrictions.’” Maj. Op. at 29. If the majority is
    implying that this certification has any bearing on the issue
    before us, this assertion is wide of the mark. The certification
    was required by the legislature to ensure that manufacturers
    had legal access to the technology; the certification was about
    patent rights, not technological feasibility. CAL. PENAL CODE
    § 31910(b)(7)(A). As the State recently conceded before the
    California Supreme Court, “this certification confirms the
    lack of any patent restrictions on the imprinting technology,
    52                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    not the availability of the technology itself.”11 Nat’l Shooting
    Sports Found., Inc. v. State, No. S239397, 
    2018 WL 3150950
    , at *1, slip op. at 2 (Cal. June 28, 2018). The
    absence of patent restrictions resulted from Lizotte
    generously placing his technology in “the public domain . . .
    free of royalty.”
    The majority similarly relies on the fact that, even if
    microstamping proves to be technologically infeasible, the
    UHA authorizes the California Attorney General to “approve
    a method of equal or greater reliability and effectiveness in
    identifying the specific serial number of a firearm from spent
    cartridge casings . . . .” Maj. Op. at 29–30 (quoting CAL.
    PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(7)(B)). So what is this replacement
    technology? Who knows? The State has not represented that
    it knows of a microstamping alternative even at the
    11
    This concession was made in the context of a state-law challenge
    to the microstamping requirement by NSSF, an amicus in this case.
    Although NSSF claimed (as it does here) that the dual-imprint requirement
    is impossible to comply with, the California Supreme Court had no cause
    to address this technical question. See Nat’l Shooting Sports Found., 
    2018 WL 3150950
    , at *1–2. Rather, “[t]he sole dispute” was whether a
    California court could invalidate the microstamping requirement “on the
    basis of Civil Code section 3531’s declaration that ‘[t]he law never
    requires impossibilities.’” 
    Id. at *2
    (alteration in original). Because the
    challenge was decided below at the pleading stage, the California Supreme
    Court “assume[d] that complying with the [microstamping requirement]
    is impossible . . . .” 
    Id. The court’s
    decision addressed only a matter of
    state statutory interpretation and therefore has no bearing on the question
    before us. Nor should we draw any inference from the fact that—as the
    majority points out—NSSF did not challenge the propriety of CDOJ’s
    certification of “the availability of dual placement microstamping
    technology . . . .” 
    Id. at *4;
    see also Maj. Op. at 25 n.10. Again, the
    absence of a patent encumbrance says nothing about the technology’s
    feasibility.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        53
    conceptual stage, and the majority has wisely declined to
    speculate on this point.
    The majority also misleadingly states that “semiautomatic
    handguns are not subject to the microstamping requirement
    and are grandfathered as long as the manufacturer continues
    to pay a roster fee and the firearms do not fail a retest.” Maj.
    Op. at 26. But semiautomatic handguns that were not listed
    on the UHA roster before the microstamping requirement
    took effect are expressly subject to the requirement. See CAL.
    PENAL CODE § 31910(b)(7)(A). If the majority is asserting
    that the availability of grandfathered handguns in California
    affects the application of intermediate scrutiny, then this too
    is incorrect. That Plaintiffs can commercially purchase older-
    model handguns says nothing about whether there is a
    reasonable fit between the microstamping requirement—
    which Plaintiffs claim effectively bans new handgun
    sales—and the State’s interest in solving handgun crimes. If
    the requirement is impossible to comply with, then as
    discussed above, it imposes a burden without advancing any
    state interest. Similarly, the fact that the UHA does not
    altogether ban possession of non-microstamped handguns
    does not squarely address the application of intermediate
    scrutiny; it only means that California has not banned the sale
    of all handguns—new and old—in violation of Heller.
    Moreover, contrary to the majority’s assertion, the Third
    Circuit’s decision in United States v. Marzzarella, 
    614 F.3d 85
    (3d Cir. 2010), bears little resemblance to this case. Maj.
    Op. at 31–32. There, the Third Circuit rejected a Second
    Amendment challenge to a federal criminal statute
    prohibiting “possession of a firearm with an obliterated serial
    number . . . .” 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 88
    . The court
    reasoned that “preserving the ability of law enforcement to
    54                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    conduct serial number tracing—effectuated by limiting the
    availability of untraceable firearms—constitutes a substantial
    or important interest.” 
    Id. at 98.
    Here, however, there is no
    disputing that microstamping’s potential ability to aid the
    police in solving handgun crimes presents a substantial
    interest. Marzzarella did not address anything remotely
    analogous to the question of technological feasibility
    presented in this case and is therefore inapposite.
    The majority similarly justifies its unfounded confidence
    in the ability of manufacturers to comply with the
    microstamping requirement by citing to other areas of law
    that have little relevance to this case. The challenge before us
    “echoes a similar one made for decades about airbags,” the
    majority announces. Maj. Op. at 26 n.11. We as readers,
    however, are left to suss out how regulations concerning
    automobile safety standards compare to testing requirements
    that will potentially curtail a fundamental right to possess
    handguns. The analogy is pretty far afield. The majority also
    perplexingly attempts to analogize to the Fourth Amendment.
    Maj. Op. at 30 (citing Maryland v. King, 
    133 S. Ct. 1958
    (2013)). But the challenge before us presents the inverse of
    the Fourth Amendment paradigm, in which the more
    advanced certain technologies become the more likely it is
    that they can be used to encroach upon our constitutional
    rights. See, e.g., Kyllo v. United States, 
    533 U.S. 27
    (2001).
    Here, by contrast, it is the lack of assurance that
    microstamping technology can perform at the levels required
    under California law that prevents us from concluding that
    the requirement passes constitutional muster.
    ***
    PENA V. LINDLEY                         55
    In sum, there is a plain conflict in the evidence that in any
    other context would preclude summary judgment. Indeed, the
    district court in this case requested additional briefing on the
    factual questions and then decided that summary judgment
    was appropriate under one of Heller’s exceptions—an error
    that I address in Part III. Pressing fearlessly where the
    district court declined to go, the majority does not address the
    conflict in evidence in any degree of granularity. Instead, it
    asserts that we must defer to the California legislature’s
    conclusion that microstamping is technologically feasible
    because the legislature “weighed competing evidence on
    effectiveness before enacting the statute.” Maj. Op. 25. But
    as I show in the next section, such deference is inapplicable
    to the question of whether gun manufacturers can comply
    with the UHA and its testing requirements and is unwarranted
    in this case given the impediments to compliance that the
    legislature failed to consider.
    II
    The majority thinks it has an answer to why, in light of
    the conflict in evidence, we can grant summary judgment. In
    the majority’s view, we must defer to the legislature’s own
    judgment on microstamping’s technological feasability. Maj.
    Op. at 25, 28–29. With respect, the majority is wrong, both
    as a matter of law and fact. I address first the general
    principles, then discuss how we have applied these principles
    in Second Amendment cases, and why these principles do not
    apply to the arguments Plaintiffs have made in this case.
    A
    When applying heightened scrutiny, we defer to a
    legislative body’s predictive policy judgments. Although
    56                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    there is seldom a dispute that the government’s interest in an
    objective is substantial, these goals are often stated in the
    abstract. After all, who could genuinely dispute that
    enhancing public safety and solving handgun crimes are
    important interests? See 
    Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1139
    (“It is
    self-evident that the government interest of preventing
    domestic gun violence is important.”). But a legislature
    “must do more than simply ‘posit the existence of the disease
    sought to be cured.’” Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v. FCC
    (Turner I), 
    512 U.S. 622
    , 664 (1994) (plurality opinion)
    (quoting Quincy Cable TV, Inc. v. FCC, 
    768 F.2d 1434
    , 1455
    (D.C. Cir. 1985)). It “must demonstrate that the recited
    harms are real, not merely conjectural, and that the [law at
    issue] will in fact alleviate these harms in a direct and
    material way.” 
    Id. Accordingly, a
    legislature must have a
    basis for believing that it is necessary to enact “X”-law in
    order to prevent “Z”-harm.
    In Turner I, for instance, the Supreme Court reviewed the
    constitutionality of a federal requirement that cable operators
    “carry the signals of a specified number of local broadcast
    television stations”—a policy aimed at advancing Congress’
    stated interest in “promoting the widespread dissemination of
    information” and “fair competition . . . .” 
    Id. at 640,
    662.
    The so-called “must-carry rules” (X-law) were premised on
    the proposition that, absent federal intervention, cable
    operators would refuse to voluntarily carry the signals from
    broadcast stations, thus forcing them out of business (Z-
    harm). 
    Id. at 666.
    In addressing Plaintiffs’ challenge to this proposition and
    the supporting studies, the Court began from the premise
    “that courts must accord substantial deference to the
    predictive judgments of Congress.” 
    Id. at 665.
    “Sound
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        57
    policymaking often requires legislators to forecast future
    events and to anticipate the likely impact of these events
    based on deductions and inferences for which complete
    empirical support may be unavailable.” 
    Id. Deference to
    such policymaking stems in part from the reality that
    legislative bodies are “far better equipped than the judiciary
    to ‘amass and evaluate the vast amounts of data’ bearing
    upon” complex issues. 
    Id. at 665–66
    (quoting Walters v.
    Nat’l Ass’n of Radiation Survivors, 
    473 U.S. 305
    , 330 n.12
    (1985)); see also City of Los Angeles v. Alameda Books, Inc.,
    
    535 U.S. 425
    , 440 (2002) (plurality opinion) (applying this
    same rationale to a local government).
    Similarly, when a legislature attempts to redress a harm,
    it must forecast the effect of its remedial law—I will call this
    “Y.” Means-end scrutiny thus inevitably invokes questions
    of the law’s efficacy in advancing the government’s stated
    interest. The parties often present competing evidence, such
    as social-science studies and economics forecasts, on whether
    X-law will have Y-effect, which is aimed at redressing Z-
    harm in order to advance the government’s interest. See, e.g.,
    Alameda 
    Books, 535 U.S. at 429
    , 435–36 (addressing the
    parties dispute regarding whether a police-department report
    supported the city council’s conclusion that prohibiting “the
    establishment . . . of more than one adult entertainment
    business in the same building” would advance the city’s
    interest in mitigating the secondary effects these businesses
    cause, such as increased crime).
    We may defer to these types of predictive policy
    judgments, even when they touch on protected constitutional
    rights. See 
    id. at 440
    (citing Turner 
    I, 512 U.S. at 655
    –56).
    Indeed, the Supreme Court has admonished on multiple
    occasions that the legislature “must be allowed a reasonable
    58                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    opportunity to experiment with solutions to admittedly
    serious problems.” City of Renton v. Playtime Theatres, Inc.,
    
    475 U.S. 41
    , 52 (1986); see also Alameda 
    Books, 535 U.S. at 439
    . While a legislature may have empirical data to support
    its predictions, a policy’s efficacy is not something that can
    be tested in a laboratory; rather, a legislature must implement
    a law and assess over time whether it had the desired
    remedial effect. See Alameda 
    Books, 535 U.S. at 439
    –40 (“A
    municipality considering an innovative solution may not have
    data that could demonstrate the efficacy of its proposal
    because the solution would, by definition, not have been
    implemented previously.”).
    B
    It should therefore come as no surprise that deference to
    legislative policy judgments has played a role in several of
    our post-Heller Second Amendment decisions. Applying
    intermediate scrutiny, we have upheld city ordinances
    banning large-capacity magazines, Fyock v. Sunnyvale,
    
    779 F.3d 991
    , 1000–01 (9th Cir. 2015), banning hollow-point
    rounds, Jackson v. City & County of San Francisco, 
    746 F.3d 953
    , 969–70 (9th Cir. 2014), and requiring residents to either
    store their handguns in an approved locked container or
    disable them with a trigger lock, 
    id. at 958,
    965–66. We were
    able to conclude that each of these laws advanced their
    intended interest in enhancing public safety based, in part, on
    the fact that the city councils had relied on relevant studies
    and made legislative findings.12 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000
    12
    None of this is to say that legislative bodies are “obligated, when
    enacting [laws], to make a record of the type that an administrative agency
    or court does to accommodate judicial review.” Turner 
    I, 512 U.S. at 666
    .
    But as discussed below, courts must still ascertain whether a legislature,
    PENA V. LINDLEY                                59
    (“Sunnyvale also presented evidence that large-capacity
    magazines are disproportionately used in mass shootings as
    well as crimes against law enforcement, and it presented
    studies showing that a reduction in the number of large-
    capacity magazines in circulation may decrease the use of
    such magazines in gun crimes.”); 
    Jackson 746 F.3d at 965
    ,
    969; see also Peruta v. County of San Diego, 
    824 F.3d 919
    ,
    944 (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc) (Graber, J., concurring)
    (“[S]ocial scientists disagree about the practical effect of
    modest restrictions on concealed carry of firearms. In the
    face of that disagreement, and in the face of inconclusive
    evidence, we must allow the government to select among
    reasonable alternatives in its policy decisions.”).13
    This brings me to the appropriate role for legislative
    deference in this case. Recall that Plaintiffs actually raised
    two challenges to microstamping. See supra pp. 36–37.
    Although I have focused on Plaintiffs’ challenge to the
    microstamping requirement based on its technological
    feasibility, they first raised the question of microstamping’s
    “in formulating its judgments, . . . has drawn reasonable inferences based
    on substantial evidence.” 
    Id. 13 Our
    sister circuits have applied legislative deference in similar
    Second Amendment challenges. See, e.g., New York State Rifle & Pistol
    Ass’n, Inc. v. Cuomo, 
    804 F.3d 242
    , 261 (2d Cir. 2015) (“We remain
    mindful that, ‘[i]n the context of firearm regulation, the legislature is “far
    better equipped than the judiciary” to make sensitive public policy
    judgments (within constitutional limits) concerning the dangers in carrying
    firearms and the manner to combat those risks.’” (quoting Kachalsky v.
    County of Westchester, 
    701 F.3d 81
    , 97 (2d Cir. 2012))); Drake v. Filko,
    
    724 F.3d 426
    , 437 (3d Cir. 2013) (“The predictive judgment of New
    Jersey’s legislators is that limiting the issuance of permits to carry a
    handgun in public to only those who can show a ‘justifiable need’ will
    further its substantial interest in public safety.”).
    60                        PENA V. LINDLEY
    efficacy in aiding police investigations. Plaintiffs contend
    that criminals can easily defeat the technology by either
    replacing a handgun’s firing pin—a fairly common and
    inexpensive procedure—or obliterating its characters with
    sandpaper. And even if a microstamped handgun did
    successfully imprint the cartridge casings from the rounds
    fired during a crime, Plaintiffs assert that it is only the utterly
    careless criminal who fails to pick up his casings before
    fleeing the scene. The brief legislative history of the
    microstamping requirement demonstrates that these precise
    arguments were made before the legislature, which evidently
    found them unpersuasive.
    Perhaps Plaintiffs are correct, and microstamping will do
    little to solve handgun crimes. But it is not our role to second
    guess the legislature’s predictive judgment that
    microstamping will solve at least some crimes. Indeed, the
    technology need not result in the police making arrests in
    every case in order for the microstamping requirement to
    have a reasonable fit. This is thus precisely the type of
    dispute over whether X-law will have Y-effect that will
    prevent Z-harm that is entitled to legislative deference. And
    as the majority notes, the “legislature considered and rejected
    other, more intrusive solutions” to solving handgun crimes.
    Maj. Op. at 24. We must therefore “allow the government to
    select among reasonable alternatives in its policy decisions.”
    
    Peruta, 824 F.3d at 944
    (Graber, J., concurring). Faced with
    an alarmingly-high number of unsolved handgun-based
    homicides per year,14 California “must be allowed a
    14
    Plaintiffs concede that solving handgun crimes is an important
    government interest. Indeed, in presenting the microstamping amendment
    to the UHA before the California legislature, the legislation’s author cited
    the fact that nearly 60 percent of the approximately 2400 homicides in the
    PENA V. LINDLEY                               61
    reasonable opportunity to experiment with solutions to [an]
    admittedly serious problem[].” 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 52
    . I
    agree with the majority on this point.
    When the majority notes that the parties dispute whether
    microstamping will “effectively” address this problem, it fails
    to distinguish between the issues of efficacy in solving crime
    and the separate issue of technological feasibility. See Maj.
    Op. at 25–26. The majority summarily cites to the principles
    of legislative deference laid out above to conclude that we
    must defer to California with respect to both the efficacy of
    microstamping to aid police and the question of whether
    manufacturers can produce handguns that satisfy the testing
    protocol. The former question is a predictive judgment about
    policy and should earn our deference; the latter is a judgment
    of scientifically-verifiable fact—a question of whether gun
    manufacturers, importers, and sellers can even comply with
    the law—and is not entitled to the same deference.
    The majority counters that this is “an artificial
    distinction” and that I seek to “hold California to a standard
    never before imposed.” Maj. Op. at 28. But this assertion
    fails to take into account that Plaintiffs’ challenge to the
    microstamping provision raises a novel question. The
    majority does not cite—nor was I able to discover—any case
    in which the public’s ability to exercise a constitutional right
    was dependent on the technological feasibility of a
    requirement imposed by the government. Rather than
    state each year are committed with handguns. No arrests are made in
    nearly 45 percent of homicide cases. Had Plaintiffs contested the need for
    some form of remedial action, this evidence would have been more than
    sufficient to demonstrate that the harm California seeks to redress is “real,
    not merely conjectural . . . .” Turner 
    I, 512 U.S. at 664
    .
    62                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    proceed with caution through this unchartered terrain, the
    majority presses forward by relying solely on the concept of
    legislative deference. Indeed, the majority declines to even
    pause and question whether the rationales discussed above for
    deferring to a legislative body’s policy judgments are
    applicable to the question before us. They are not.
    Indeed, the technological feasibility of microstamping is
    just not comparable, for example, to questions of how
    effective a zoning ordinance will be in combating the
    secondary effects of adult entertainment. See 
    Renton, 475 U.S. at 52
    (“We also find no constitutional defect in the
    method chosen by Renton to further its substantial interests.
    Cities may regulate adult theaters by dispersing them, as in
    Detroit, or by effectively concentrating them, as in Renton.”).
    Nor can we properly compare the question before us to our
    prior Second Amendment cases, which similarly hinged on
    what can fairly be described as policy disputes. See, e.g.,
    
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 1000
    –01 (acknowledging the existence of
    competing evidence regarding whether high-capacity
    magazines are conducive for self-defense rather than crime);
    see also 
    Peruta, 824 F.3d at 944
    (Graber, J., concurring) (“To
    be sure, we recognize the existence of studies and data
    challenging the relationship between handgun ownership by
    lawful citizens and violent crime. . . . It is the legislature’s
    job, not ours, to weigh conflicting evidence and make policy
    judgments.” (quoting Kachalsky v. County of Westchester,
    
    701 F.3d 81
    , 99 (2d Cir. 2012))).
    In contrast, the question of technological feasibility—in
    the sense of whether a manufacturer can satisfy the testing
    protocol—is one that can be readily answered in a laboratory.
    As discussed above, the UHA already requires gun
    manufacturers to submit handguns they wish to sell in
    PENA V. LINDLEY                              63
    California to a State-certified laboratory, which tests
    compliance with the CLI, MDM, and microstamping
    requirements.      CAL. PENAL CODE § 32010(a).               If
    microstamping technology is feasible and as reliable as the
    State believes it to be, there is no purpose for relying on
    predictive judgment. The State could simply demonstrate and
    certify that popular brands of modern handguns, once
    modified with microstamped interior surfaces, will legibly
    imprint cartridge casings in two places with their identifying
    information—and can do so at rate of consistency that will
    satisfy the State’s testing protocol.15
    The majority objects to this invitation, arguing that it
    would essentially “transform [California] into a gun
    manufacturer.” Maj. Op. at 28. But the State has already
    interjected itself into the granularity of this issue by setting
    (through CDOJ regulations) the technical UHA compliance
    requirements and certifying private laboratories to certify
    handgun compliance. It is not an onerous burden for the State
    to counter Plaintiffs’ central contention that no handgun can
    satisfy the testing protocol by simply testing a single
    handgun. This is especially true in light of the fundamental
    right at stake.
    One final note on legislative deference. The majority fails
    to acknowledge that even though predictive policy judgments
    “are entitled to substantial deference”—where appropriately
    15
    While the State may counter this invitation by pointing to the
    purported unwillingness of gun manufacturers to comply with the
    microstamping requirement, the State’s own evidence indicates that
    components such as the firing pin and breech face can be microstamped
    and tested without a manufacturer’s participation. Indeed, Lizotte’s stress
    test involved a handgun he modified with microstamped interior surfaces.
    64                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    applied—they are not “insulated from meaningful judicial
    review altogether.” Turner 
    I, 512 U.S. at 666
    . “On the
    contrary, [the Supreme Court has] stressed in First
    Amendment cases that the deference afforded to legislative
    findings does ‘not foreclose . . . independent judgment of the
    facts bearing on an issue of constitutional law.’” 
    Id. (quoting Sable
    Commc’ns of Cal., Inc. v. FCC, 
    492 U.S. 115
    , 129
    (1989)). While “not a license to reweigh the evidence de
    novo,” 
    id., courts are
    obliged “to assure that, in formulating
    its judgments, [a legislature] has drawn reasonable inferences
    based on substantial evidence,” Turner Broad. Sys., Inc. v.
    FCC (Turner II), 
    520 U.S. 180
    , 195 (1997) (quoting Turner
    
    I, 512 U.S. at 666
    ); see also Alameda 
    Books, 535 U.S. at 438
    (“This is not to say that a municipality can get away with
    shoddy data or reasoning. The municipality’s evidence must
    fairly support the municipality’s rationale for its ordinance.”).
    Even if legislative deference, in the abstract, applied to
    the question of technological feasability, its application
    would be unwarranted in this case. As demonstrated above,
    the California legislature failed to adequately consider the
    impediments to complying with the microstamping
    requirement and its testing protocol. And contrary to the
    majority’s assertion, there is little indication in the record
    before us that the legislature relied on Lizotte’s expertise in
    debating whether to enact the requirement. See Maj. Op. at
    27–28. I can find no reference in the legislative history to
    Lizotte’s stress test discussed above or the public displays of
    microstamping’s application cited in his declaration. As far
    as I can tell, Lizotte never testified before the state legislature
    nor submitted any materials to them other than a press
    release. The only direct reference to him in the legislative
    history involves staff members of a legislative committee
    soliciting his brief response to one of the studies critical of
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       65
    microstamping. See supra note 8. These deficiencies are
    glaring, and I cannot conclude that the legislature relied on
    substantial evidence in determining that microstamping is
    technologically feasible—even before considering the
    contrary evidence.
    Surprisingly—and perhaps telling—the State has failed to
    address on appeal Plaintiffs’ concerns regarding whether
    manufacturers can successfully implement microstamping.
    The majority attempts to fill this void by relying on a form of
    deference that is inapplicable to the question of whether gun
    manufacturers can comply with the UHA’s testing protocol.
    Given the conflict of evidence on this very point, the majority
    should not conclude that the microstamping requirement
    survives intermediate scrutiny.
    III
    My analysis thus far has addressed only step 2 of our
    Second Amendment framework: the application of the
    appropriate level of scrutiny. See 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    .
    The majority avoids step 1 by assuming without deciding that
    the CLI, MDM, and microstamping requirements “burden[]
    conduct protected by the Second Amendment . . . .” 
    Id. (quoting Chovan,
    735 F.3d at 1136); see Maj. Op. at 13–14.
    Because a state can also prevail on a Second Amendment
    claim at step 1 by establishing that the Amendment is not
    implicated, skipping this step is appropriate only when the
    state prevails at step 2 by establishing that the law at issue
    survives application of the appropriate level of scrutiny.
    Stated otherwise, a court must engage in the step 1 inquiry if
    the law would fail to pass constitutional muster at step 2.
    Thus, in order for me to conclude that we should reverse and
    remand as to the microstamping requirement, I must address
    66                   PENA V. LINDLEY
    the threshold question of whether microstamping implicates
    the Second Amendment. This analysis requires addressing
    the district court’s conclusion that the UHA is “presumptively
    lawful” because it is a “law[] imposing conditions and
    qualifications on the commercial sale of arms.” 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    –27 & n.26.
    The majority—which will soon appear prophetic—states
    that courts “have spilled considerable ink” addressing this
    precise issue. Maj. Op. at 11. What follows, I fear, is no
    exception. I first trace the development of Second
    Amendment precedent post-Heller and offer a roadmap to
    deciding what conduct falls outside of the Second
    Amendment’s protection. I conclude by applying this
    roadmap to the microstamping requirement.
    A
    Because the Second Amendment “codified a pre-existing
    right,” its protections encompass “the historical
    understanding of the scope of the right.” 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 592
    , 625. The scope of the Second Amendment may be
    defined not only by what was historically protected, but also
    by what the government was historically permitted to
    regulate. We have said that the first question we must answer
    in a Second Amendment challenge is “whether the challenged
    law falls within a ‘well-defined and narrowly limited’
    category of prohibitions ‘that have been historically
    unprotected.’” 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    (quoting Brown v.
    Entm’t Merchs. Ass’n, 
    564 U.S. 786
    , 791–92 (2011)).
    In Heller, the Supreme Court identified three categories
    of regulatory measures that we may presume to be consistent
    with the historical scope of the Second Amendment:
    PENA V. LINDLEY                             67
    Although we do not undertake an exhaustive
    historical analysis today of the full scope of
    the Second Amendment, nothing in our
    opinion should be taken to cast doubt on
    longstanding [1] prohibitions on the
    possession of firearms by felons and the
    mentally ill, or [2] laws forbidding the
    carrying of firearms in sensitive places such
    as schools and government buildings, or
    [3] laws imposing conditions and
    qualifications on the commercial sale of arms.
    
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    –27. The Court, however, did not
    elaborate on these enumerated categories, their intricacies, or
    their justifications, and instead left that for another time. See
    
    id. at 635
    (“[T]here will be time enough to expound upon the
    historical justifications for the exceptions we have mentioned
    if and when these exceptions come before us.”); see also
    McDonald v. City of Chicago, 
    561 U.S. 742
    , 786 (2010) (“We
    made it clear in Heller that our holding did not cast doubt on
    such longstanding regulatory measures as [quoting the three
    enumerated categories]. We repeat those assurances here.”).
    It added that “these presumptively lawful regulatory
    measures” were only examples and not an exhaustive list.
    
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    n.26.16
    16
    To these three categories of laws, the Court added that the “Second
    Amendment does not protect those weapons not typically possessed by
    law-abiding citizens for lawful purposes . . . .” 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 625
    (citing United States v. Miller, 
    307 U.S. 174
    , 179 (1939)); see 
    id. at 627
    (acknowledging that the Second Amendment incorporates the “historical
    tradition of prohibiting the carrying of ‘dangerous and unusual weapons’”
    (quoting 4 WILLIAM BLACKSTONE, COMMENTARIES 148–49 (1769))).
    68                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    Because Heller’s examples of longstanding or historical
    exceptions to the Second Amendment are not exclusive, we
    have said that regulations that fall outside the enumerated
    categories are immune from further Second Amendment
    inquiry only if the government has come forward with
    “persuasive historical evidence establishing that the
    regulation at issue imposes prohibitions that fall outside the
    historical [protection] of the Second Amendment.” 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    . A regulation “does not burden conduct
    protected by the Second Amendment if the record contain[s]
    evidence that [the subjects of the regulation] have been the
    subject of longstanding, accepted regulation . . . .” 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 997
    . These “longstanding, accepted regulations”
    may come from the early-twentieth century and need not
    trace their roots back to the Founding, so long as their
    “historical prevalence and significance is properly developed
    in the record.” Id.; see also Nat’l Rifle Ass’n of Am., Inc. v.
    Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, & Explosives,
    
    700 F.3d 185
    , 196 (5th Cir. 2012) (“Heller demonstrates that
    a regulation can be deemed ‘longstanding’ even if it cannot
    boast a precise founding-era analogue.”); United States v.
    Skoien, 
    614 F.3d 638
    , 641 (7th Cir. 2010) (en banc) (“[W]e
    do take from Heller the message that exclusions need not
    mirror limits that were on the books in 1791.”). We recently
    upheld a state restriction on concealed weapons under this
    standard. 
    Peruta, 824 F.3d at 939
    (upholding a concealed
    carry permit system based on historical evidence of such
    regulations going back to the thirteenth century).
    How we treat the enumerated categories is, surprisingly,
    a more difficult question. See United States v. Booker,
    
    644 F.3d 12
    , 23 (1st Cir. 2011) (“The full significance of
    these pronouncements is far from self-evident.”); see also
    
    Skoien, 614 F.3d at 640
    (“We do not think it profitable to
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       69
    parse these passages of Heller as if they contained an answer
    . . . .”). There are two important questions that must be
    answered about these enumerated categories. First, does
    “presumptively lawful” mean “conclusively lawful”? That is,
    is a law falling within these three categories subject to a
    rebuttable or an irrebuttable presumption of lawfulness?
    Second, what is the scope of each of these categories? In this
    case, in which California has argued that the challenged
    restrictions are “conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms,” what does that phrase mean? The
    stakes are significant: we have suggested that gun restrictions
    falling within these three enumerated categories are to the
    Second Amendment what libel, obscenity, and fighting words
    are to the First Amendment: categories that are not covered
    at all by the Amendment. See 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    ; cf.
    United States v. Alvarez, 
    567 U.S. 709
    , 717–18 (2012); New
    York v. Ferber, 
    458 U.S. 747
    , 763 (1982). If California’s
    microstamping restriction falls within one of these
    categories—and either the presumption of lawfulness is
    irrebuttable or Plaintiffs have failed to rebut the
    presumption—the Second Amendment does not apply and the
    case should end at step 1.
    1
    We have not had occasion to decide what “presumptively
    lawful” means in this context, but I think that if a regulation
    is presumptively lawful, then that is a starting point; that I
    might begin from the premise that the regulation is lawful,
    but am open to being persuaded otherwise. It is contrary to
    my instincts to read “presumptively lawful” as “conclusively
    70                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    lawful.” Nevertheless, the answer has proven elusive, as the
    circuits have splintered over the question.17
    The Third Circuit was the first court of appeals to address
    this interpretative problem. It explained the problem, and the
    choices, as follows:
    [T]he phrase ‘presumptively lawful’ could
    have different meanings under newly
    enunciated Second Amendment doctrine. On
    the one hand, this language could be read to
    suggest the identified restrictions are
    presumptively lawful because they regulate
    conduct outside the scope of the Second
    Amendment. On the other hand, it may
    suggest the restrictions are presumptively
    lawful because they pass muster under any
    standard of scrutiny.
    
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 91
    ; accord United States v. Chester,
    
    628 F.3d 673
    , 679 (4th Cir. 2010) (“It is unclear to us
    whether Heller was suggesting that ‘longstanding
    prohibitions’ such as these were historically understood to be
    valid limitations on the right to bear arms or did not violate
    the Second Amendment for some other reason.”). Although
    the Third Circuit considered “[b]oth readings [to be]
    reasonable interpretations,” it thought “the better reading,
    based on the text and the structure of Heller, is the
    former—in other words, that these longstanding limitations
    are exceptions to the right to bear arms.” Marzzarella,
    17
    The cases have been helpfully compiled in David B. Kopel &
    Joseph G.S. Greenlee, The Federal Circuits’ Second Amendment
    Doctrines, 61 ST. LOUIS L.J. 193, 214–26 (2017).
    PENA V. LINDLEY                      
    71 614 F.3d at 91
    . In a subsequent decision, however, the Third
    Circuit rejected a facial challenge to a statute as
    presumptively regulating unprotected conduct, but held that
    the presumption could be rebuttable in the context of an as-
    applied challenge. United States v. Barton, 
    633 F.3d 168
    ,
    172–73 (3d Cir. 2011) (“By describing the felon disarmament
    ban as ‘presumptively’ lawful, the Supreme Court implied
    that the presumption may be rebutted.” (citation omitted)),
    overruled on other grounds by Binderup v. Att’y Gen.,
    
    836 F.3d 336
    , 348–51 (3d Cir. 2016) (en banc) (disagreeing
    over what a challenger needs to show to rebut the
    presumption for an as-applied challenge).
    Moreover, as if this were not confusing enough, in
    Marzzarella, the Third Circuit elsewhere suggested that it
    might have to take one approach with respect to disqualified
    persons and sensitive places, and a different approach with
    respect to commercial regulations. As the court explained, in
    contrast to “prohibitions” on certain persons and “laws
    forbidding” carrying firearms in sensitive places,
    [c]ommercial regulations on the sale of
    firearms do not fall outside the scope of the
    Second Amendment . . . . In order to uphold
    the constitutionality of a law imposing a
    condition on the commercial sale of firearms,
    a court necessarily must examine the nature
    and extent of the imposed condition. If there
    were somehow a categorical exception for
    these restrictions, it would follow that there
    would be no constitutional defect in
    prohibiting the commercial sale of firearms.
    Such a result would be untenable under
    Heller.
    72                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 92
    n.8; see also 
    id. at 92
    (noting that
    “the Second Amendment affords no protection for the
    possession of dangerous and unusual weapons, possession by
    felons and the mentally ill, and the carrying of weapons in
    certain sensitive places” but omitting “conditions and
    qualifications on the commercial sale of arms” from the list).
    If I have read the Third Circuit’s precedent correctly, it
    regards facial challenges to laws prohibiting possession of
    guns by felons and the mentally disabled and to laws
    forbidding the possession of guns in sensitive places to be not
    just “presumptively lawful,” but lawful and thus outside of
    further Second Amendment scrutiny. It permits, however, as-
    applied challenges to such laws. With respect to conditions
    and qualifications on commercial sale, though, the Third
    Circuit has said it will not apply an irrebuttable presumption
    to anything arguably within the category, but rather it will
    depend on the “nature and extent of the imposed condition.”
    
    Id. at 92
    n.8.
    The Fifth Circuit sort of sided with the Third Circuit, but
    (like the Third Circuit) with a qualification. It agreed that it
    was
    difficult to map Heller’s “longstanding,”
    “presumptively lawful regulatory measures”
    onto [the] two-step framework. It is difficult
    to discern whether “longstanding prohibitions
    on the possession of firearms by felons and
    the mentally ill, . . . or laws imposing
    conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms,” by virtue of their
    presumptive validity, either (i) presumptively
    fail to burden conduct protected by the
    Second Amendment, or (ii) presumptively
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        73
    trigger and pass constitutional muster under a
    lenient level of scrutiny.
    Nat’l Rifle 
    Ass’n, 700 F.3d at 196
    (second alteration in
    original) (citations omitted). The court concluded: “For now,
    we state that a longstanding, presumptively lawful regulatory
    measure . . . would likely fall outside the ambit of the Second
    Amendment; that is, such a measure would likely be upheld
    at step one of our framework.” 
    Id. Thus, the
    Fifth Circuit
    appeared to agree that the presumption was irrebuttable, but
    qualified it by stating that such a regulation, if longstanding,
    “would likely be upheld at step one” because it “would likely
    fall outside” the scope of the Second Amendment. Two
    “likely’s” in one sentence strongly suggests that the phrase
    “presumptively lawful” is more a mindset than a rule.
    The D.C. Circuit simply found “presumptively lawful” to
    mean that a law carries a presumption that can be rebutted:
    “Heller tells us ‘longstanding’ regulations are ‘presumptively
    lawful’; that is, they are presumed not to burden conduct
    within the scope of the Second Amendment.” Heller v.
    District of Columbia (Heller II), 
    670 F.3d 1244
    , 1253 (D.C.
    Cir. 2011) (citation omitted). It then explained that
    [t]his is a reasonable presumption because a
    regulation that is “longstanding,” which
    necessarily means it has long been accepted
    by the public, is not likely to burden a
    constitutional right; concomitantly the
    activities covered by a longstanding
    regulation are presumptively not protected
    from regulation by the Second Amendment.
    A plaintiff may rebut this presumption by
    showing the regulation does have more than a
    74                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    de minimis effect upon his right. . . . We
    uphold the requirement of mere registration
    because it is longstanding, hence
    “presumptively lawful,” and the presumption
    stands unrebutted.
    Id.; accord Bonidy v. U.S. Postal Serv., 
    790 F.3d 1121
    , 1129
    (10th Cir. 2015) (Tymkovich, J., concurring in part and
    dissenting in part) (“It is a close call, but Bonidy has on
    balance not rebutted that presumption.”); Peterson v.
    Martinez, 
    707 F.3d 1197
    , 1218 n.1 (10th Cir. 2013) (Lucero,
    J., concurring) (“A plaintiff may rebut the resumption of
    validity by showing that the regulation at issue has ‘more than
    a de minimis effect upon his right.’” (quoting Heller 
    II, 670 F.3d at 1253
    )).
    I think that the most natural reading of “presumptively
    lawful” is exactly what it says: a law within the enumerated
    categories carries a presumption of lawfulness. But it must
    be a presumption that is subject to rebuttal. The Supreme
    Court introduced the enumerated categories with the
    assumption that these restrictions are “longstanding.” 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    . I agree with the D.C. Circuit that restrictions
    within these categories that are longstanding are more likely
    outside the scope of the Second Amendment. See Heller 
    II, 670 F.3d at 1253
    ; see also 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    ; 
    Chovan, 735 F.3d at 1137
    . At the very least, a plaintiff who has
    identified a restriction that is not longstanding has the
    opportunity to demonstrate how it affects his Second
    Amendment rights.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                                 75
    2
    In Jackson, we observed that Heller’s enumerated
    categories, like categories of nonprotected speech, are “well-
    defined and narrowly 
    limited.” 746 F.3d at 960
    (quoting
    
    Brown, 564 U.S. at 791
    ); cf. Chaplinsky v. New Hampshire,
    
    315 U.S. 568
    , 571–72 (1942) (“There are certain well-defined
    and narrowly limited classes of speech, the prevention and
    punishment of which have never been thought to raise any
    Constitutional problem.”). Elsewhere, the Supreme Court has
    described categories of nonprotected speech such as libel,
    obscenity, and fighting words as “historic and traditional
    categories long familiar to the [public].” United States v.
    Stevens, 
    559 U.S. 460
    , 468 (2010). Two of the three
    enumerated categories—“prohibitions on the possession of
    firearms by felons and the mentally ill” and “laws forbidding
    the carrying of firearms in sensitive places”—seem to fit well
    in the class of “well-defined,” “narrowly limited,” “historic,”
    and long familiar.”18
    18
    We have had little difficulty upholding restrictions that fall into
    these two categories. For example, when a felon challenged a state’s ban
    on his possession of firearms, we simply repeated Heller’s language and
    upheld the ban. See Wilson v. Lynch, 
    835 F.3d 1083
    , 1091 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (noting that if a person falls into one of the exceptions for being a felon or
    mentally ill, “her claims would fail categorically” and thus the only outlet
    is challenging whether she is, in fact, a felon or mentally ill), cert. denied,
    
    137 S. Ct. 1396
    (2017); see also United States v. Phillips, 
    827 F.3d 1
    171,
    1174 (9th Cir. 2016); Van der Hule v. Holder, 
    759 F.3d 1043
    , 1050–51
    (9th Cir. 2014); United States v. Vongxay, 
    594 F.3d 1111
    , 1115 (9th Cir.
    2010). The same is true with respect to challenges to prohibitions on gun
    possession in a “sensitive area,” such as a federal building. See 
    Bonidy, 790 F.3d at 1125
    –26. In these cases, whether a law bans the possession
    of a firearm by a felon, or in a federal building, is a relatively simple
    76                      PENA V. LINDLEY
    The phrase “conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms,” however, is not so familiar,
    narrow, or well defined. Indeed, we recently wrote that “[t]he
    language in Heller regarding the regulation of ‘the
    commercial sale of arms,’ . . . is sufficiently opaque with
    regard to that issue that, rather than relying on it alone . . . ,
    we conduct a full textual and historical review [to determine
    if the regulation passes Second Amendment scrutiny].”
    
    Teixeira, 873 F.3d at 682
    –83. This opaqueness probably
    explains why in several cases we have assumed without
    deciding that a given regulation burdened conduct protected
    by the Second Amendment in the face of an argument that it
    fell into this sales exception. In each case we avoided having
    to parse the category by upholding the restriction under
    intermediate scrutiny. ee Silvester v. Harris, 
    843 F.3d 816
    ,
    827–29 (9th Cir. 2016) (assuming a ten-day waiting period on
    the purchase of a firearm burdened conduct protected by the
    Second Amendment and applying intermediate scrutiny);
    Wilson v. Lynch, 
    835 F.3d 1083
    , 1092 (9th Cir. 2016)
    (applying intermediate scrutiny to a regulation prohibiting
    possessors of medical marijuana card from buying firearms);
    cf. 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 967
    –68 (applying intermediate
    scrutiny to a ban on the sale of hollow-point ammunition). In
    fact, so far as I can tell, neither we nor any other circuit court
    has held that a given regulation was exempt from Second
    Amendment inquiry because it was a condition and
    qualification on the commercial sale of arms. Cf. 
    Silvester, 843 F.3d at 831
    (Thomas, C.J., concurring) (applying the
    categorical-exemption approach without citing cases having
    done the same).
    inquiry. Cf. United States v. Henry, 
    688 F.3d 637
    , 640 (9th Cir. 2012)
    (upholding a ban on machine guns as qualifying as “dangerous and
    unusual weapons”).
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       77
    Because the category is not self-explanatory, I have to
    start from a slightly different premise: the Supreme Court in
    Heller could not have meant that anything that could be
    characterized as a condition and qualification on the
    commercial sale of firearms is immune from more searching
    Second Amendment scrutiny. See 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 92
    n.8. Take, for example, a law saying that a condition for
    the commercial sale of firearms is that sales may take place
    only between 11 p.m. and midnight, on Tuesdays. Or a law
    imposing a $1,000,000 point-of-sale tax on the purchase of
    firearms for self-defense (presumably, to fund firearms
    training and education). Even though these restrictions can
    be characterized as “conditions and qualifications on the
    commercial sale of arms,” we would have to find such
    restrictions inconsistent with the “scope of the Second
    Amendment.” After Heller, it seems clear that challenges to
    these laws would easily overcome any presumption of
    lawfulness.
    So what constitutes a condition and qualification on
    commercial sales? I know of no accepted or common
    understanding of this phrase. At a minimum, the Court must
    have meant that rules of general applicability do not violate
    the Second Amendment just because they place conditions on
    commercial sales, including sales of handguns used for self-
    defense. Fire codes, sales taxes, and commercial licenses are
    ordinary conditions on commercial sales generally. See
    Minneapolis Star & Tribune Co. v. Minn. Comm’r of
    Revenue, 
    460 U.S. 575
    , 581 (1983) (“It is beyond dispute that
    the States and the Federal Government can subject
    newspapers to generally applicable economic regulations
    without creating constitutional problems.”). As part of the
    cost of doing business, such regulations may raise the cost of
    commercial sales, a cost that is typically passed on to the
    78                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    consumer. The fact that such costs of doing business raise the
    costs of goods and may affect the willingness of consumers
    to purchase the goods does not, for that reason, violate the
    Second Amendment—no more than taxes collected on the
    sales of religious materials restrict Free Exercise rights under
    the First Amendment. Tex. Monthly, Inc. v. Bullock, 
    489 U.S. 1
    , 17–20 (1989) (rejecting the argument that an exemption
    from sales tax for religious publications was compelled by the
    Free Exercise Clause); see Tony & Susan Alamo Found. v.
    Sec’y of Labor, 
    471 U.S. 290
    , 303 (1985) (“It is virtually self-
    evident that the Free Exercise Clause does not require an
    exemption from a governmental program unless, at a
    minimum, inclusion in the program actually burdens the
    claimant’s freedom to exercise religious rights.”); see also
    Bowen v. Roy, 
    476 U.S. 693
    (1986) (upholding requirement
    that a welfare recipient obtain a social security number
    against a Free Exercise Clause challenge); United States v.
    Lee, 
    455 U.S. 252
    (1982) (upholding the imposition of social
    security taxes against a Free Exercise Clause challenge). We
    accept such restrictions on our rights—including our
    fundamental rights to speak, publish, and exercise our
    religion—because laws of general applicability cover a broad
    range of activities and, hence, must have broad, popular
    acceptance and support.
    The analogy to the First Amendment begins to break
    down, however, once we move beyond rules of general
    applicability. In the First Amendment context, laws that
    single out certain kinds of speech or religion are subject to
    strict judicial scrutiny. See, e.g., Texas v. Johnson, 
    491 U.S. 397
    , 413 (1989); Minneapolis 
    Star, 460 U.S. at 582
    –83. The
    courts have been vigilant even when a law appears to be one
    of general applicability, but in fact has singled out a particular
    religion, see Church of the Lukumi Babalu Aye, Inc. v. City of
    PENA V. LINDLEY                               79
    Hialeah, 
    508 U.S. 520
    (1993); Larson v. Valente, 
    456 U.S. 228
    (1982), or a point of view or a mode of expression, see
    Ark. Writers’ Project, Inc. v. Ragland, 
    481 U.S. 221
    (1987).
    It is thus harder to know what to do with the “conditions
    and qualifications on the commercial sale of arms” category
    once we get to arms-sales-specific restrictions. There are
    surely some restrictions that, to return to our First
    Amendment analogy, are the equivalent of time, place, and
    manner restrictions. See United States v. Decastro, 
    682 F.3d 160
    , 165 (2d Cir. 2012) (characterizing commercial-sale
    restrictions as time, place, and manner restrictions). These
    might include zoning restrictions, see 
    Teixeira, 873 F.3d at 673
    , and other health and safety rules imposed on a
    commercial site that are unique to arms sales, see Nordyke v.
    King, 
    681 F.3d 1041
    (9th Cir. 2012) (en banc). These
    restrictions might also be abused—think of my example of a
    law restricting commercial sales to one hour on
    Tuesdays—but such restrictions, if reasonable, are
    presumptively lawful, and any plaintiff bringing a Second
    Amendment challenge will bear the burden of rebutting the
    presumption. These restrictions go to where and when such
    commercial sales can take place.19 See generally Eugene
    Volokh, Implementing the Right to Keep and Bear Arms for
    Self-Defense: An Analytical Framework and a Research
    Agenda, 56 UCLA L. REV. 1443 (2009).
    19
    Other point-of-sale restrictions such as background checks and
    waiting periods are better characterized as regulations in support of who
    may lawfully possess (much less purchase) firearms. Such restrictions are
    conveniently enforced at the point of sale but are more easily defended as
    restrictions on “the possession of firearms by felons and the mentally ill.”
    
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 626
    .
    80                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    The question of what can be sold to qualified buyers at an
    appropriate location and time comes much closer to the core
    of the Second Amendment. The law at issue in Heller banned
    all possession of handguns in the District of Columbia, but I
    think it obvious that D.C. could not have taken the
    intermediate step of banning all sales of handguns in the
    District. See 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 92
    n.8. To return, yet
    again, to the language of the First Amendment, what may be
    sold (to anyone) fairly goes to the content of the Second
    Amendment right to acquire the arms that we may keep and
    bear for our defense. A law that permits only the commercial
    sale of water pistols and Nerf guns is not what the Second
    Amendment guaranteed.
    Admittedly, I have no particularly good solution to
    defining what is and what is not a condition and qualification
    on commercial sales. As with the term “regulate Commerce”
    in the Constitution, U.S. CONST. art. I, § 8, cl. 3, the phrase
    “conditions and qualifications on the commercial sale of
    arms” is impressively capacious and difficult to cabin. See
    Gonzales v. Raich, 
    545 U.S. 1
    , 15–16 (2005) (noting that our
    interpretations have “evolved over time”). But the Court’s
    generous treatment of “Commerce” in Article I goes to the
    regulatory powers entrusted to Congress, one of the core
    powers Congress was given to knit together the union
    following the Articles of Confederation. See 
    id. at 16
    (“The
    Commerce Clause emerged as the Framers’ response to the
    central problem giving rise to the Constitution itself: the
    absence of any federal commerce power under the Articles of
    Confederation.”). By contrast, giving “commercial sale” a
    similarly broad construction here would serve to restrict
    rights guaranteed by the Bill of Rights. I am reluctant to give
    the term such a broad construction. Moreover, I am left with
    the strong impression that Heller did not exempt from Second
    PENA V. LINDLEY                       81
    Amendment scrutiny any condition and qualification on
    firearm ownership that might be enforced at the point of sale.
    In my view, the better approach to the conditions and
    qualifications on commercial sale category is that taken by
    the D.C. Circuit in Heller II. We should apply the
    presumption of lawfulness to a longstanding regulation of
    commercial sales of arms. The plaintiff would be able to
    “rebut this presumption by showing the regulation does have
    more than a de minimis effect upon his [Second Amendment]
    right.” Heller 
    II, 670 F.3d at 1253
    . This proposed
    framework would capture the spirit of Heller. It places little
    burden on the government to show that its regulations are
    longstanding. See United States v. Greeno, 
    679 F.3d 510
    , 518
    (6th Cir. 2012) (requiring the government to “demonstrate[]
    that the challenged statute ‘regulates activity falling outside
    the [historic] scope of the Second Amendment’” with more
    than “inconclusive” or ambiguous evidence (quoting Ezell v.
    City of Chicago, 
    651 F.3d 684
    , 702–03 (7th Cir. 2011))). At
    the same time, it gives the plaintiff an opportunity to show
    that the regulations substantially infringe Second Amendment
    rights. The closer the regulations get to the core of the
    Second Amendment, the less willing we should be to deem
    them “presumptively lawful” and outside the scope of the
    Second Amendment. Where the presumption is rebutted, the
    government would have to defend its regulation under an
    appropriate level of scrutiny.
    B
    With this understanding of what the step 1 inquiry entails,
    I now turn to the question of whether the microstamping
    requirement burdens conduct protected by the Second
    Amendment. The State makes two arguments. Its primary
    82                    PENA V. LINDLEY
    contention is that the microstamping requirement is
    presumptively lawful as a condition and qualification on the
    commercial sale of arms. Alternatively, the State claims that
    the requirement, even if not a condition on commercial sales,
    is still outside the scope of the Second Amendment because
    it is a “longstanding, accepted regulation.” 
    Fyock, 779 F.3d at 997
    ; see also 
    Jackson, 746 F.3d at 960
    . I address each
    argument in turn.
    1
    As is evident from my discussion above, not everything
    that the State enforces at the point of sale should be deemed
    a condition and qualification on the commercial sale of arms.
    I conclude that zoning and commercial licensing
    requirements are the kind of time, place, and manner
    restrictions governing the when and where in commercial
    sales that may be presumptively valid as conditions and
    qualifications on the commercial sale of arms. Beyond that,
    things get complicated, and whether restrictions on
    commercial sales of firearms fall entirely outside the scope of
    the Second Amendment will depend on the nature of the
    restriction.
    The microstamping requirement is not a condition
    California imposes on time, place, or manner of sale, but on
    the kinds of handguns Californians may purchase. It is true
    that the restriction is generally enforced at the point of sale,
    but that, as I have explained, is not a complete answer to
    Plaintiffs’ complaints.          Plaintiffs argue that the
    microstamping requirement restricts the supply of weapons
    available in the first place—and that surely is a burden on the
    right of self-defense.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                         83
    I am thus unwilling to assume that California’s restriction
    on the types of arms that can be sold commercially is so
    plainly a condition and qualification that it is “presumptively
    lawful” and thus immune from any Second Amendment
    inquiry. Whatever the contours of the commercial sales
    category, Heller cannot mean that the State can ban the sales
    of arms—whether it does so directly or indirectly by
    imposing conditions on features that commercially sold
    firearms must possess. Accordingly, I cannot conclude that
    the microstamping requirement falls within the commercial
    sales exception.
    2
    In the alternative, the State claims that there is “historical
    precedent for California’s Unsafe Handgun Act.” I construe
    this discussion of history as an attempt to recognize a new
    category of presumptively lawful regulatory measures under
    Heller. See 
    Heller, 554 U.S. at 627
    n.26. In such an inquiry,
    the burden lies with the State. See 
    Ezell, 651 F.3d at 702
    –03.
    Moreover, historical exceptions must not be described at an
    “inappropriately high level of generality—akin to saying that
    because the government traditionally could prohibit
    defamation, it can also prohibit speech criticizing government
    officials.” Heller 
    II, 670 F.3d at 1294
    (Kavanaugh, J.,
    dissenting).
    The State claims that microstamping has a historical
    provenance because police have long used ballistic testing of
    fired rounds to determine which gun, and type of gun, the
    round came from. But this historical evidence is inadequate
    for the State’s purpose. The history of ballistic testing merely
    shows that the police have examined bullets and casings for
    distinctive markings inadvertently left by the barrels. This is
    84                     PENA V. LINDLEY
    a history of forensics, not a history of the laws regulating
    firearms. The State has supplied no evidence that rifling was
    done for the purpose of identifying the weapon, or that this
    inadvertent consequence of gun manufacturing was required
    by law.
    Alternatively, the State argues that microstamping is
    similar to the longstanding requirement that weapons have a
    serial number. Federal law has required serial numbers on
    firearms since 1934, and the courts have upheld these
    requirements post-Heller. The Third Circuit in Marzzarella
    observed that requiring serial numbers was a longstanding
    rule that had nothing to do with the gun’s utility: “[T]he
    presence of a serial number does not impair the use or
    functioning of a weapon in any way . . . . With or without a
    serial number, a pistol is still a 
    pistol.” 614 F.3d at 94
    . Thus,
    the Third Circuit concluded, any burden would be “de
    minimis.” 
    Id. In other
    words, the only possible reason
    anyone would want an unmarked firearm is for illegal
    purposes, and that would fall outside the bounds of Heller’s
    emphasis on the Second Amendment protecting law-abiding
    citizens. 
    Id. at 95.
    Marzzarella does not help the State at this
    point in the analysis, however, because the Third Circuit
    declined to adopt the government’s claim that the serial
    number requirement did not impair Second Amendment
    rights. Instead, the court concluded that the law passed
    muster under either heightened or strict scrutiny. Id.; see also
    
    id. at 97–99
    (applying heightened scrutiny); 
    id. at 99–101
    (applying strict scrutiny). In other words, the case supporting
    the State’s best historical example does not support the
    State’s claim that its requirement falls outside the scope of
    the Second Amendment.
    PENA V. LINDLEY                        85
    From the State’s argument, I garner that there is at least
    a ninety-year history of requiring that newly-manufactured
    guns be imprinted with a serial number on some portion of
    the weapon in accordance with a process in place since the
    Industrial Revolution and that doing so does not affect the
    gun’s utility. In other words, there is a history of imposing a
    restriction that burdens nothing except for someone’s desire
    to act unlawfully. Even assuming that microstamping is just
    a variation on the serial number requirement, the State’s
    history is not sufficient to persuade me that there should exist
    a new class of laws immune from Second Amendment
    inquiry, particularly when Plaintiffs allege that they cannot
    satisfy the microstamping requirement. That is far greater
    than a “de minimis” burden. 
    Marzzarella, 614 F.3d at 94
    .
    Accordingly, the district court erred in holding that, at
    step 1, the microstamping requirement does not burden
    conduct protected by the Second Amendment. Because I
    additionally conclude that granting summary judgment in
    favor of the State on the microstamping requirement is
    improper at step 2, I respectfully dissent as to this claim.
    ***
    “I will not add to this long paper by an apology for its
    length. If I am wrong, there can be no good apology; and if
    I am right, none is necessary.” Pet. for Reh’g, Hickman v.
    McCurdy, 30 Ky. (7 J.J. Marsh) 555, 573 (1832), 
    1832 WL 2229
    , at *12.