John Sansing v. Charles Ryan ( 2022 )


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  •                FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    JOHN EDWARD SANSING,                     No. 13-99001
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                     2:11-cv-01035-
    SRB
    CHARLES L. RYAN, Director, Arizona
    Department of Corrections; ERNEST
    TRUJILLO, Warden, Arizona State         ORDER AND
    Prison - Eyman Complex,                  AMENDED
    Respondents-Appellees.        OPINION
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    Susan R. Bolton, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted January 22, 2019
    San Francisco, California
    Filed May 17, 2021
    Amended July 29, 2022
    Before: Marsha S. Berzon, Consuelo M. Callahan, and
    Paul J. Watford, Circuit Judges.
    Order;
    Opinion by Judge Watford;
    Dissent by Judge Berzon
    2                       SANSING V. RYAN
    SUMMARY *
    Habeas Corpus / Death Penalty
    The panel filed an order (1) stating that the opinion filed
    May 17, 2021, is amended by a concurrently filed opinion,
    and that Judge Berzon’s dissent is amended by a
    concurrently filed dissent; (2) denying a petition for panel
    rehearing; and (3) denying on behalf of the court a petition
    for rehearing en banc, in a case in which the district court
    denied John Edward Sansing’s federal petition for a writ of
    habeas corpus, which is governed by the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA).
    Sansing pleaded guilty to first-degree murder and, in
    1999, was sentenced to death by the State of Arizona.
    Sansing’s Claim 1 was predicated on the alleged denial
    of his Sixth Amendment right to trial by jury. At the time of
    his trial, Arizona law mandated that the trial judge alone
    determine whether a sentence of death should be imposed
    following a conviction for first-degree murder. The United
    States Supreme Court declared that sentencing scheme
    unconstitutional in Ring v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 584
     (2002).
    On remand for further consideration in light of Ring, the
    Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the denial of Sansing’s
    right to a jury trial during the penalty phase was harmless
    beyond a reasonable doubt.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    SANSING V. RYAN                          3
    To establish prejudice, a federal habeas petitioner must,
    under Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993),
    demonstrate that a constitutional error resulted in “actual
    prejudice”—that is, a “substantial and injurious effect or
    influence” on the outcome.
    In the amended opinion, the panel noted that the United
    States Supreme Court clarified in Brown v. Davenport, 
    142 S. Ct. 1510
     (2022), that satisfying Brecht is only a necessary,
    not a sufficient condition to relief; a federal habeas petitioner
    must meet the requirements of AEDPA as well. So when, as
    here, the state court has determined on direct appeal that an
    error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt—the standard
    required for review of non-structural constitutional errors
    under Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967)—a
    petitioner must demonstrate that the court applied Chapman
    in an objectively unreasonable manner.
    The panel began by deciding whether the Arizona
    Supreme Court’s application of Chapman was objectively
    unreasonable under AEDPA.              Rejecting Sansing’s
    contention that the Arizona Supreme Court’s determination
    was “contrary to” or an “unreasonable application of” clearly
    established federal law, the panel concluded that fairminded
    jurists applying the governing beyond-a-reasonable-doubt
    standard could conclude that the absence of a jury trial did
    not affect the Arizona Supreme Court’s conclusions (a) that
    any reasonable jury would have found that the murder was
    committed in both an “especially cruel” and an “especially
    heinous” manner (
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (F)(6) (1999)), or
    (b) that no rational jury would have found the existence of
    any statutory mitigating circumstances or that Sansing’s
    non-statutory mitigating circumstances were sufficiently
    substantial to call for leniency. Because Sansing failed to
    satisfy AEDPA, the panel did not need to consider whether
    4                     SANSING V. RYAN
    the absence of a jury trial resulted in actual prejudice under
    Brecht.
    Sansing’s Claim 2 alleged that his trial counsel rendered
    ineffective assistance in presenting his mitigation defense
    during the penalty phase. The state post-conviction review
    (PCR) court held that Sansing failed to establish either
    deficient performance or prejudice under Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). The panel concluded that,
    as to most of the challenged aspects of counsel’s
    representation, Sansing did not demonstrate that the PCR
    court’s resolution of Strickland’s deficient-performance
    prong was objectively unreasonable; and that as to the
    remaining aspects of the representation, the PCR court
    reasonably determined that Sansing did not demonstrate
    prejudice.
    In Claim 8, Sansing alleged that his waiver of the
    privilege against self-incrimination was not knowing and
    voluntary because he was unaware that his admission, during
    the plea colloquy, that the victim was conscious when he
    raped her could be used to prove cruelty under § 13-
    703(F)(6). Affirming the denial of relief as to this claim, the
    panel observed that the United States Supreme Court has not
    yet held that the trial court must affirmatively discuss during
    the plea colloquy the potential impact of a defendant’s
    factual admissions may have on capital sentencing
    proceedings.
    In Claim 4, Sansing asserted an ineffective-assistance-
    of-counsel claim that used the same factual predicate as
    Claim 8. The panel concluded that even accepting that
    counsel rendered ineffective assistance, a fairminded jurist
    could conclude that Sansing failed to show a reasonable
    probability he would have received a different sentence.
    SANSING V. RYAN                       5
    In Claim 7, Sansing alleged that the Arizona courts
    violated the Eighth Amendment by applying an
    impermissible “causal nexus” test when assessing his non-
    statutory mitigating circumstances.        See Eddings v.
    Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
     (1982), and McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
     (9th Cir. 2015) (en banc). The panel held that the
    sentencing court did not strip the mitigating circumstances
    of all weight by applying an unconstitutional causal-nexus
    test. The panel wrote that it is possible that the Arizona
    Supreme Court applied a rule contrary to Eddings, but did
    not need to resolve that issue because even if the Arizona
    Supreme Court erred in this regard, Sansing cannot show
    actual prejudice under Brecht.
    Dissenting, Judge Berzon would grant the petition as to
    Claim 1, Ring error prejudice, and so would not reach the
    other challenges to the death sentence discussed in the
    majority opinion. She wrote that a court granting habeas
    relief must apply both the AEDPA/Chapman test as well as
    the standard set forth in Brecht; she therefore applied both
    tests. She wrote that the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    application of the “harmless beyond a reasonable doubt”
    standard from Chapman was contrary to federal law, as
    clearly established by Neder v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    (1999), so this court owes no deference to its harmlessness
    determination. She would therefore review under Brecht
    whether the deprivation of the right to a jury determination
    had a “substantial and injurious effect” on Sansing’s
    sentence, which was satisfied because Sansing presented
    sufficient evidence to allow a jury to conclude that, because
    of his crack cocaine use, his capacity to appreciate the
    wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his conduct to the
    requirements of law was “significantly impaired.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1). She concurred in the majority’s
    6                   SANSING V. RYAN
    analysis of Claims 4 and 8, relating to the factual basis
    offered when pleading guilty.
    COUNSEL
    Jennifer Y. Garcia (argued), Assistant Federal Public
    Defender; Jon M. Sands, Federal Public Defender; Office of
    the Federal Public Defender, Phoenix, Arizona; for
    Petitioner-Appellant.
    Lacy Stover Gard (argued), Chief Counsel; John Pressley
    Todd, Special Assistant Attorney General; Mark Brnovich,
    Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General, Tucson,
    Arizona; for Respondents-Appellees.
    SANSING V. RYAN                        7
    ORDER
    The opinion filed May 17, 2021, and appearing at
    
    997 F.3d 1018
    , is amended by the opinion filed concurrently
    with this order. Judge Berzon’s dissent is also amended by
    the dissent filed concurrently with this order.
    With these amendments, the panel unanimously votes to
    deny the petition for panel rehearing. Judge Callahan and
    Judge Watford vote to deny the petition for rehearing en
    banc, and Judge Berzon so recommends. The full court has
    been advised of the petition for rehearing en banc, and no
    judge requested a vote on whether to rehear the matter en
    banc. Fed. R. App. P. 35. The petition for panel rehearing
    and rehearing en banc, filed June 27, 2022, is DENIED. No
    further petitions for panel rehearing or rehearing en banc will
    be entertained.
    OPINION
    WATFORD, Circuit Judge:
    In 1999, the State of Arizona sentenced John Sansing to
    death for the murder of Trudy Calabrese. This appeal arises
    from the district court’s denial of Sansing’s federal petition
    for a writ of habeas corpus, which is governed by the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996
    (AEDPA). The district court granted a certificate of
    appealability as to five claims, and we later issued a
    certificate of appealability as to a sixth. We agree with the
    district court that Sansing has not shown an entitlement to
    relief on any of his claims.
    8                    SANSING V. RYAN
    I. Factual and Procedural Background
    Our summary of the facts is drawn from the Arizona
    Supreme Court’s first opinion on direct appeal. State v.
    Sansing, 
    26 P.3d 1118
    , 1122–23 (Ariz. 2001) (Sansing I).
    Sansing’s wife, Kara Sansing, provided much of this
    narrative when she testified during the penalty phase of
    Sansing’s trial. (Like the parties, we refer to Sansing’s
    family members by their first names to avoid confusion.)
    On February 24, 1998, Sansing and Kara were on the
    fourth consecutive day of heavy crack cocaine consumption.
    Sansing called Kara throughout the day to discuss the need
    to obtain money to buy more drugs. He also informed her
    that he had purchased crack cocaine, smoked a portion of it,
    and was saving the rest for her. Kara returned home from
    work around 3:20 p.m., and the two immediately smoked the
    leftover crack cocaine.
    That afternoon, Sansing contacted a local church to
    request delivery of a box of food for his family. With his
    four young children present, Sansing told Kara that he
    planned to rob whomever the church sent to deliver the food.
    Shortly after 4:00 p.m., Trudy Calabrese parked her
    truck in front of the Sansing home. She entered the house
    and delivered two boxes of food, chatting with Kara in the
    kitchen while Sansing signed paperwork verifying the
    delivery. As Ms. Calabrese turned to leave, Sansing grabbed
    her from behind and threw her to the floor. With the
    assistance of Kara, Sansing bound Ms. Calabrese’s wrists
    and legs with electrical cords.
    According to Kara, Ms. Calabrese fought “a great deal”
    and begged Sansing not to hurt her. She pleaded for the
    children to call the police and prayed for God’s help until
    SANSING V. RYAN                      9
    Sansing gagged her with a sock. Sansing struck Ms.
    Calabrese twice in the head with a wooden club with enough
    force to knock her unconscious. He then retrieved her keys
    and drove her truck to a nearby parking lot. When Sansing
    returned, Ms. Calabrese was conscious, at least according to
    Sansing’s and Kara’s later statements. (Sansing now
    disputes this fact, pointing to the testimony of a medical
    examiner who expressed doubt that Ms. Calabrese regained
    consciousness given the severity of her head injuries.)
    Sansing dragged Ms. Calabrese upstairs to his bedroom,
    where he raped her. Her arms and legs were still bound.
    Kara overheard Sansing and Ms. Calabrese speaking to each
    other. (Sansing disputes that Ms. Calabrese spoke, pointing
    to the use of the gag and again to her head injuries.) After
    raping Ms. Calabrese, Sansing stabbed her three times in the
    abdomen with a knife from the kitchen. Kara described
    Sansing as “grinding” the knife inside of Ms. Calabrese, and
    the medical examiner saw signs that the knife had been
    twisted in her abdomen. Ms. Calabrese died from these
    wounds, likely several minutes after the stabbing.
    Sansing took Ms. Calabrese’s jewelry and traded it for
    crack cocaine.
    That evening, a pastor of the church called the Sansing
    home to check on Ms. Calabrese’s whereabouts. Sansing
    gave a false home address and told the pastor that the
    delivery had never arrived. Sansing later dragged Ms.
    Calabrese’s body to his backyard and attempted to hide it
    behind a shed under a piece of old carpeting. He washed the
    club he had used to strike Ms. Calabrese and hid other
    evidence of the crime.
    By the next day, a search party had located
    Ms. Calabrese’s truck; inside was a note with the Sansings’
    10                   SANSING V. RYAN
    true home address. The police visited the home and found
    Ms. Calabrese’s body in the backyard. Her head was
    wrapped in a plastic bag that was bound to her neck by
    ligatures, and the police discovered that she had been
    blindfolded. At the time of the search, Sansing had already
    gone to work. He went straight from work to his sister
    Patsy’s house, where he confessed to having killed Ms.
    Calabrese. Patsy called their father, who reported the
    murder and Sansing’s location to the police. Sansing
    peaceably surrendered to the officers who arrived at Patsy’s
    house.
    The State of Arizona charged Sansing with first-degree
    murder, kidnapping, armed robbery, and sexual assault. The
    State also provided notice of its intent to seek the death
    penalty. Two deputy public defenders, Emmet Ronan and
    Sylvina Cotto, were appointed to represent Sansing.
    Professing a desire not to put either his family or the
    Calabrese family through a trial, Sansing pleaded guilty in
    September 1998 to all charges in the indictment.
    Sansing’s trial therefore proceeded directly to the
    penalty phase, at which the trial judge considered the
    aggravating and mitigating circumstances associated with
    the murder. Following a three-day hearing, the trial judge
    sentenced Sansing to death in a detailed, 17-page special
    verdict. The Arizona Supreme Court affirmed Sansing’s
    death sentence on direct appeal. Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at 1132
    ;
    State v. Sansing, 
    77 P.3d 30
    , 39 (Ariz. 2003) (Sansing II).
    Sansing sought post-conviction review (PCR) in state
    court. The PCR court summarily dismissed four claims on
    the merits and a fifth claim as procedurally defaulted. The
    court rejected Sansing’s remaining claim, which alleged
    ineffective assistance of trial counsel, in a reasoned opinion
    following a four-day evidentiary hearing. The Arizona
    SANSING V. RYAN                        11
    Supreme Court denied Sansing’s petition for review without
    reaching the merits of his claims.
    In 2011, Sansing filed a 29-claim petition for a writ of
    habeas corpus in federal court. The district court denied his
    petition and granted a certificate of appealability as to five
    of Sansing’s claims. Sansing filed a timely notice of appeal
    from the district court’s judgment. As noted above, we
    issued a certificate of appealability as to one additional
    claim.
    II. Claim 1
    We address first the district court’s rejection of Claim 1,
    which is predicated on the alleged denial of Sansing’s Sixth
    Amendment right to trial by jury. At the time of Sansing’s
    trial, Arizona law mandated that the trial judge alone
    determine whether a sentence of death should be imposed
    following a conviction for first-degree murder. The United
    States Supreme Court declared that sentencing scheme
    unconstitutional in Ring v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 584
     (2002).
    Soon thereafter, the Court granted Sansing’s pending
    petition for a writ of certiorari, vacated the judgment in
    Sansing I, and remanded the case for further consideration
    in light of Ring. Sansing v. Arizona, 
    536 U.S. 954
     (2002).
    On remand, the Arizona Supreme Court ruled that the denial
    of Sansing’s right to a jury trial during the penalty phase was
    harmless beyond a reasonable doubt. Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    36–39. In Claim 1, Sansing alleges that the Arizona
    Supreme Court’s harmless-error determination was
    “contrary to” or “an unreasonable application of” clearly
    established federal law. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). We begin
    by providing additional background relevant to the analysis
    of this claim before turning to the merits.
    12                   SANSING V. RYAN
    A
    After Sansing pleaded guilty to first-degree murder,
    Arizona law required the sentencing court to decide whether
    he should be sentenced to death or life in prison. 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (B) (1999). (Unless otherwise noted, we cite
    the 1999 version of the Arizona Revised Statutes.) To make
    that determination, the sentencing court engaged in a three-
    step analysis.
    First, the sentencing court determined whether the State
    had proved beyond a reasonable doubt any of the ten
    statutory aggravating factors that render a defendant eligible
    for the death penalty. § 13-703(F). In this case, the
    sentencing court found two such factors had been proved:
    that Sansing “committed the offense in an especially
    heinous, cruel or depraved manner,” § 13-703(F)(6); and
    that he “committed the offense as consideration for the
    receipt, or in expectation of the receipt, of anything of
    pecuniary value,” § 13-703(F)(5).
    Second, the sentencing court determined whether
    Sansing had proved by a preponderance of the evidence any
    of the five statutory mitigating circumstances. § 13-703(G).
    As relevant here, Sansing argued that his “capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his
    conduct to the requirements of law was significantly
    impaired” by his use of crack cocaine. § 13-703(G)(1). The
    sentencing court declined to find the (G)(1) mitigating
    circumstance, given the evidence that Sansing had planned
    the robbery and attempted to avoid detection “before, during
    and after the murder.”
    The sentencing court also assessed the evidence
    supporting non-statutory mitigating circumstances—that is,
    any aspect of Sansing’s life or any circumstance of the
    SANSING V. RYAN                      13
    offense “relevant in determining whether to impose a
    sentence less than death.” § 13-703(G). Although Sansing
    failed to prove the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance, the court
    considered his drug-induced impairment to be a non-
    statutory mitigating circumstance. The court also found that
    Sansing had “accepted responsibility for his actions and
    [was] genuinely remorseful,” and “that he had a difficult
    childhood and family background.” The court gave only
    minimal weight to Sansing’s lack of education and his
    family’s love and support.
    Third, and finally, the sentencing court weighed the
    aggravating factors against the mitigating circumstances to
    determine whether the mitigating circumstances were
    “sufficiently substantial to call for leniency.” § 13-703(E).
    The court considered the mitigating circumstances not
    sufficiently substantial to outweigh the two aggravating
    factors it had found. The court therefore imposed a sentence
    of death.
    The Arizona Supreme Court affirmed Sansing’s death
    sentence after independently reviewing “the trial court’s
    findings of aggravation and mitigation and the propriety of
    the death sentence.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703.01
    (A) (2001).
    The court upheld the sentencing court’s finding that the
    murder had been committed in an especially cruel manner,
    which was sufficient on its own to sustain the (F)(6)
    aggravating factor, and chose not to reach whether the
    murder was also heinous or depraved. Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at
    1127–29. The court struck the (F)(5) aggravating factor
    because the facts did not “clearly indicate a connection
    between a pecuniary motive and the killing itself.” 
    Id.
     at
    1124–27. The court agreed that Sansing had not established
    the level of impairment required for the (G)(1) mitigating
    circumstance. 
    Id.
     at 1130–31. Independently reweighing
    14                   SANSING V. RYAN
    the evidence, the Arizona Supreme Court concluded that a
    sentence of death was appropriate “[g]iven the strength of
    the [remaining] aggravating factor in this case and the
    minimal value of the mitigating evidence.” 
    Id. at 1131
    .
    As noted above, a year after Sansing I, the United States
    Supreme Court ruled Arizona’s judge-based capital-
    sentencing scheme unconstitutional in Ring v. Arizona.
    “Because Arizona’s enumerated aggravating factors operate
    as ‘the functional equivalent of an element of a greater
    offense,’” the Court explained, “the Sixth Amendment
    requires that they be found by a jury.” Ring, 
    536 U.S. at 609
    (quoting Apprendi v. New Jersey, 
    530 U.S. 466
    , 494 n.19
    (2000)).
    To address the fallout from Ring, the Arizona Supreme
    Court consolidated all pending direct appeals in capital
    cases, including Sansing’s. State v. Ring, 
    65 P.3d 915
    , 925
    (Ariz. 2003) (Ring III). The court held that a Ring error is
    not structural and thus can be subject to harmless-error
    review. 
    Id. at 936
    ; see Mitchell v. Esparza, 
    540 U.S. 12
    , 17
    (2003) (per curiam) (noting that the Supreme Court left this
    issue open in Ring). Under the legal standard announced by
    the Arizona Supreme Court, a Ring error is deemed harmless
    if (1) the evidence supporting an aggravating factor is so
    overwhelming that “no reasonable jury would have failed to
    find the factor established beyond a reasonable doubt,” and
    (2) “no reasonable jury could find that the mitigation
    evidence adduced during the penalty phase is sufficiently
    substantial to call for leniency.” Ring III, 
    65 P.3d at 944, 946
     (internal quotation marks omitted). In other words, the
    court stated, “[u]nless we conclude beyond a reasonable
    doubt that a jury would impose a death sentence, we must
    remand the case for resentencing.” 
    Id.
     at 944 (citing Neder
    v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
    , 19 (1999)).
    SANSING V. RYAN                       15
    In Sansing II, the Arizona Supreme Court applied this
    harmless-error standard to Sansing’s death sentence. As to
    the (F)(6) aggravating factor, which applies if the defendant
    committed the murder in an especially heinous, cruel, or
    depraved manner, the court held that the error under Ring
    was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt. The court based
    that holding on two independent grounds. First, given the
    facts to which Sansing had admitted when pleading guilty
    and to which he had stipulated during the sentencing phase,
    see Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    33–34 n.3, the court concluded that
    “any reasonable jury would have found that Sansing
    murdered [Ms. Calabrese] in an especially cruel manner.”
    
    Id. at 35
    . Second, “[g]iven the overwhelming and
    uncontroverted evidence,” the court determined that “any
    reasonable jury would have concluded that Sansing inflicted
    gratuitous violence upon [Ms. Calabrese], who was rendered
    helpless” during the crime. 
    Id. at 36
    . As a result, “[n]o
    reasonable jury could have failed to find that [Ms.
    Calabrese’s] murder was especially heinous.” 
    Id.
    Shifting focus to Sansing’s mitigating evidence, the
    Arizona Supreme Court held, beyond a reasonable doubt,
    that “[n]o reasonable jury would have concluded that
    Sansing met his burden to establish” either of the statutory
    mitigating circumstances he sought to prove (age and
    significant impairment due to drug use). 
    Id.
     at 37–38. As to
    Sansing’s non-statutory mitigating circumstances, the court
    concluded that “no reasonable jury could have given more
    than minimal weight” to most of the mitigating evidence
    Sansing relied on, although the court assumed that a
    reasonable jury “would have accorded some weight to
    Sansing’s family’s love and support and to the fact that he
    accepted responsibility for his crime.” 
    Id. at 39
    . But,
    considering the “brutality” of Ms. Calabrese’s murder and
    the relatively weak mitigating evidence offered by Sansing,
    16                    SANSING V. RYAN
    the court determined beyond a reasonable doubt that “any
    reasonable jury would have concluded that the mitigating
    evidence was not sufficiently substantial to call for
    leniency.” 
    Id.
     The Arizona Supreme Court therefore
    affirmed Sansing’s death sentence.
    B
    We turn now to the merits of Claim 1. The parties agree
    that Sansing was not afforded the jury-trial right announced
    in Ring, so the only issue is whether this error was harmless.
    At the outset, the parties dispute the scope of the rule
    established in Ring. Sansing contends that, like the Arizona
    Supreme Court, we should consider whether any rational
    jury, after weighing the aggravating factors against the
    mitigating circumstances, would have returned a sentence of
    death. The State responds that Ring established only that one
    or more aggravating factors must be found by the jury—
    nothing more. According to the State, we need ask only
    whether it is clear, beyond a reasonable doubt, that
    overwhelming and uncontroverted evidence established the
    (F)(6) aggravating factor, such that no rational jury would
    have failed to find it.
    The district court agreed with the State, reasoning that
    “[t]o the extent the Arizona Supreme Court chose to include
    review of mitigation as part of its harmless error analysis, it
    did so as a matter of state law.” The court therefore limited
    its analysis to the evidence supporting the aggravating
    factors, and concluded that the evidence of cruelty,
    heinousness, and depravity underlying the (F)(6)
    aggravating factor was so strong that Sansing was not
    prejudiced by the Ring error. The court also held, albeit
    without further analysis, that the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    “review of the mitigating evidence, while not required by
    SANSING V. RYAN                             17
    Ring, was thorough, and its assessment of the evidence was
    not objectively unreasonable.”
    Months after the district court rejected Claim 1, we
    adopted a broader reading of Ring in Murdaugh v. Ryan,
    
    724 F.3d 1104
     (9th Cir. 2013). Murdaugh acknowledged
    that a narrow reading of the Supreme Court’s decision
    “would extend the Sixth Amendment right no further than its
    express holding by concluding that a defendant only has a
    right to have a jury determine aggravating factors.” Id. at
    1115. But we nonetheless defined the scope of the right
    more broadly to include the “determination that ‘there are no
    mitigating circumstances sufficiently substantial to call for
    leniency.’”     Id.    Thus, harmless-error review must
    encompass not only the finding of aggravating factors, but
    also “the existence or absence of mitigating circumstances.”
    Id. at 1117. 1
    To establish prejudice, a federal habeas petitioner must
    demonstrate that a constitutional error resulted in “actual
    prejudice”—that is, a “substantial and injurious effect or
    influence” on the outcome. Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    , 637 (1993). In Murdaugh, we applied the Brecht
    standard “without regard for the state court’s harmlessness
    determination.” 724 F.3d at 1118 (quoting Pulido v.
    Chrones, 
    629 F.3d 1007
    , 1012 (9th Cir. 2010)). That
    approach is no longer sound after Brown v. Davenport,
    
    142 S. Ct. 1510
     (2022). There, the Supreme Court clarified
    that “satisfying Brecht is only a necessary, not a sufficient,
    condition to relief.” 
    Id. at 1520
    . A federal habeas petitioner
    1
    We need not decide whether the Supreme Court’s decision in
    McKinney v. Arizona, 
    140 S. Ct. 702
     (2020), calls into question this
    aspect of Murdaugh’s holding, since we conclude below that the State is
    entitled to prevail in any event.
    18                    SANSING V. RYAN
    must meet the requirements of AEDPA as well. So when, as
    here, the state court has determined on direct appeal that an
    error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt—the standard
    required for review of non-structural constitutional errors
    under Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
     (1967)—a
    petitioner must demonstrate that the court “applied
    Chapman in an objectively unreasonable manner.” Davis v.
    Ayala, 
    576 U.S. 257
    , 269 (2015) (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    We begin by deciding whether the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s application of Chapman was objectively
    unreasonable under AEDPA. That determination requires us
    to ask whether “fairminded jurists” could agree with the
    Arizona Supreme Court’s conclusion in Sansing II that the
    Ring error was harmless beyond a reasonable doubt. Ayala,
    576 U.S. at 269. If so, relief is precluded under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). In our view, fairminded jurists applying the
    governing beyond-a-reasonable-doubt standard could
    conclude that the absence of a jury trial did not affect either
    the finding of the (F)(6) aggravating factor or the
    determination that the mitigating evidence was not
    sufficiently substantial to call for leniency. Because Sansing
    fails to satisfy AEDPA, we need not consider whether the
    absence of a jury trial resulted in actual prejudice under
    Brecht.
    1. Finding of the (F)(6) aggravating factor. The
    Arizona Supreme Court reasonably concluded that, given the
    overwhelming and uncontroverted evidence, any reasonable
    jury would have found that the murder was committed in
    both an “especially cruel” and an “especially heinous”
    manner. Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    33–36. Either finding is
    sufficient on its own to establish the (F)(6) aggravating
    factor. State v. Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d 1
    , 10 (Ariz. 1983).
    SANSING V. RYAN                       19
    Under Arizona law, a murder is committed in an
    especially cruel manner if “the victim consciously
    experienced physical or mental pain prior to death.” Sansing
    II, 
    77 P.3d at 33
     (quoting State v. Trostle, 
    951 P.2d 869
    , 883
    (Ariz. 1997)). The victim need not be conscious, however,
    when “each and every wound” is inflicted. 
    Id.
     (quoting State
    v. Lopez, 
    786 P.2d 959
    , 966 (Ariz. 1990)).
    Here, the Arizona Supreme Court found cruelty
    established on three different grounds. The first was the
    mental anguish Ms. Calabrese suffered before Sansing
    struck her in the head with the wooden club, when he tackled
    her, threw her to the ground, and tied her up. As the court
    stated, Ms. Calabrese’s “defensive wounds, her pleas for
    help, and her attempts to resist Sansing’s attack leave no
    doubt [she] suffered mental anguish as she contemplated her
    ultimate fate.” Id. at 34. The second ground was the mental
    and physical suffering Ms. Calabrese endured when Sansing
    raped her while her arms and legs remained bound. Id. And
    the third ground was the physical pain Ms. Calabrese
    endured as a result of the “substantial” blows to her head,
    which caused “tremendous bleeding,” and the three stab
    wounds to her abdomen, which struck the inferior vena cava
    and penetrated her colon, stomach, large intestine, and
    kidney—wounds that the medical examiner testified “would
    have caused pain and would not have resulted in immediate
    death.” Id. Fairminded jurists could conclude, beyond a
    reasonable doubt, that the evidence of at least one and likely
    all three of these grounds was overwhelming.
    Sansing’s principal argument in response is that a
    rational jury could have found that Ms. Calabrese did not
    regain consciousness after he delivered the blows to her
    head, which would mean that she was not conscious when
    he raped and stabbed her. That contention, of course, does
    20                   SANSING V. RYAN
    not negate the first of the grounds on which the Arizona
    Supreme Court based its cruelty determination. But the
    Arizona Supreme Court reasonably rejected Sansing’s
    factual contention in any event. The evidence Sansing relies
    on—the testimony of the medical examiner who performed
    Ms. Calabrese’s autopsy—is itself equivocal. The medical
    examiner did testify that he doubted Ms. Calabrese regained
    consciousness after the blows, but he also stated that it was
    not “medically unlikely or impossible” that she did. Both
    Sansing and Kara made statements affirmatively
    establishing that Ms. Calabrese did regain consciousness.
    Sansing told a reporter who interviewed him following his
    arrest that Ms. Calabrese had regained consciousness by the
    time he returned to the house after moving her truck, and that
    “after beating her so badly, he decided to kill her to end her
    suffering.” According to the reporter, Sansing said: “She
    was suffering. I wanted to end it. . . . I wasn’t playing God.
    I just couldn’t handle seeing the condition she was in.” And
    Kara testified during the penalty phase that Ms. Calabrese
    was conscious during the rape, which occurred after Sansing
    inflicted the blows to her head. Fairminded jurists could
    conclude that, in the face of these admissions from Sansing
    and Kara, no rational jury could have found that
    Ms. Calabrese remained unconscious throughout almost the
    entirety of the attack.
    Sansing’s argument concerning the cruelty finding
    suffers from a lack of supporting legal authority as well.
    Sansing contends that under Arizona law the victim must
    have been conscious at the time of death, but the principal
    authority he relies on, State v. Wallace, 
    728 P.2d 232
    , 237
    (Ariz. 1986), did not accurately state Arizona law at the time
    of his sentencing. As the Arizona Supreme Court held in
    Sansing I, “cruelty can exist even if the victim remained
    conscious for only a short period during the attack.” 26 P.3d
    SANSING V. RYAN                        21
    at 1127; see also State v. Schackart, 
    947 P.2d 315
    , 325 (Ariz.
    1997). Ms. Calabrese was indisputably conscious for at least
    a portion of the attack at issue here.
    The Arizona Supreme Court’s conclusion as to
    heinousness is also reasonable. Under Arizona law, the trier
    of fact considers the following factors in determining
    whether the defendant committed the murder in an especially
    heinous manner: “(1) relishing of the murder by the
    defendant; (2) infliction of gratuitous violence; (3) needless
    mutilation; (4) senselessness of the crime; and
    (5) helplessness of the victim.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    35
    (citing Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d at 11
    ). A finding of helplessness
    “in conjunction with another Gretzler factor, such as
    gratuitous violence,” is sufficient to establish that the murder
    was especially heinous. 
    Id. at 36
    . The helplessness factor is
    present “when a victim is physically unable to resist the
    murder.” 
    Id.
     at 35 (citing State v. Gulbrandson, 
    906 P.2d 579
    , 602 (Ariz. 1995)). Gratuitous violence consists of
    “violence beyond that necessary to kill.” 
    Id.
     (citing State v.
    Rienhardt, 
    951 P.2d 454
    , 465 (Ariz. 1997)).
    Here, as the Arizona Supreme Court concluded,
    “[o]verwhelming and uncontroverted evidence establishes
    beyond a reasonable doubt that Sansing inflicted gratuitous
    violence upon [Ms. Calabrese], a helpless victim.” Id. at 36.
    Ms. Calabrese was helpless to defend herself because
    Sansing bound her wrists and legs with electrical cords.
    Sansing inflicted gratuitous violence upon her because “[t]he
    rape, facial wounds, neck ligatures, gagging, blind-folding,
    and grinding of the knife constitute violence beyond that
    necessary to kill.” Id.
    2. Assessment of the mitigating circumstances. The
    Arizona Supreme Court reasonably concluded, beyond a
    reasonable doubt, that no rational jury would have found the
    22                   SANSING V. RYAN
    existence of any statutory mitigating circumstances or found
    that Sansing’s non-statutory mitigating circumstances were
    sufficiently substantial to call for leniency. Id. at 36–39.
    As to the statutory mitigating circumstances, Sansing
    attempted to prove, based on his consumption of crack
    cocaine before the murder, that his “capacity to appreciate
    the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his conduct
    to the requirements of law was significantly impaired.”
    
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1). Sansing presented evidence
    that he consumed a large quantity of crack cocaine in the
    four days leading up to the murder. Drug use can constitute
    a mitigating circumstance under § 13-703(G)(1), but only if
    the defendant can show, typically through expert testimony,
    that a causal nexus exists between his ingestion of drugs and
    his commission of the offense. Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1119.
    The Arizona Supreme Court reasonably concluded that
    Sansing “failed entirely” to make that showing. Sansing II,
    
    77 P.3d at 37
    . Most glaringly, Sansing did not present any
    expert testimony establishing the requisite causal nexus, see
    
    id.,
     which distinguishes this case from our decision in
    Murdaugh, where such evidence had been presented. See
    724 F.3d at 1121 (noting that the record included “expert
    testimony establishing a direct causal link between
    Murdaugh’s drug use and the murder”); see also id. at 1119.
    The Arizona Supreme Court also reasonably concluded that
    none of the other evidence Sansing presented, including
    Kara’s testimony about their drug use on the day of the
    murder, was sufficient to allow a reasonable jury to find that
    Sansing’s crack cocaine use caused the level of impairment
    that the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance requires. Sansing II,
    
    77 P.3d at 37
    .
    Although the lack of evidence supporting a causal nexus
    was alone fatal to Sansing’s claim, the Arizona Supreme
    SANSING V. RYAN                       23
    Court noted additional deficiencies that would preclude a
    reasonable jury from finding the existence of the (G)(1)
    mitigating circumstance. The court concluded that the
    “deliberate actions” Sansing took in carrying out the crime,
    which were proved by uncontroverted evidence, “refute his
    impairment claim.” 
    Id. at 38
    . For example, Sansing devised
    a plan that involved robbing the person who would deliver a
    charitable gift of food, and he “contacted two different
    churches in his attempt to lure an unsuspecting victim to his
    home.” 
    Id.
     Far from supporting his impairment claim, these
    and the other actions Sansing took, such as driving
    Ms. Calabrese’s truck to a nearby parking lot after the initial
    attack, “establish that the drug use did not overwhelm
    Sansing’s ability to control his conduct.” Id.; see also State
    v. Kiles, 
    857 P.2d 1212
    , 1229 (Ariz. 1993).
    The Arizona Supreme Court further relied on
    uncontroverted evidence establishing that Sansing took steps
    to avoid detection after committing the murder. He moved
    Ms. Calabrese’s truck away from his home, and when a
    church pastor called later that night to inquire about
    Ms. Calabrese, “Sansing gave him a false address and told
    him that [Ms. Calabrese] never arrived.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 38
    . In addition, Sansing washed blood from the club that
    he used to perpetrate the initial attack, and he attempted to
    hide Ms. Calabrese’s body after the murder. These steps to
    thwart discovery of the crime, the Arizona Supreme Court
    reasonably concluded, “negate any possibility that a
    reasonable jury would find that Sansing’s capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct was significantly
    impaired.” Id.; see also Rienhardt, 
    951 P.2d at 466
    .
    In short, while we acknowledge that fairminded jurists
    could disagree on this point, we think the Arizona Supreme
    Court reasonably concluded, beyond a reasonable doubt, that
    24                    SANSING V. RYAN
    no rational jury would have found the existence of the (G)(1)
    mitigating circumstance. The “possibility for fairminded
    disagreement” requires us to defer to the state court’s
    determination, regardless of whether we would have reached
    the same conclusion following an independent review of the
    record. Harrington v. Richter, 562 U.S 86, 103 (2011).
    As to the non-statutory mitigating circumstances,
    Sansing highlighted his impairment at the time of the murder
    and the fact that several family members attributed Sansing’s
    violent conduct to his drug use. Sansing also emphasized his
    deep remorse and his decision to accept responsibility for his
    crimes by pleading guilty. In addition, Sansing submitted a
    report by a mitigation specialist that detailed his
    dysfunctional family background. The report noted that as a
    child Sansing witnessed frequent incidents of domestic
    violence between his mother and stepfather, that he began
    using drugs in the fifth grade, and that he dropped out of high
    school after his freshman year. Lastly, Sansing pointed to
    his rehabilitative potential and his family’s love and support
    as non-statutory mitigating circumstances.
    A fairminded jurist could nonetheless conclude, beyond
    a reasonable doubt, that “any reasonable jury would have
    concluded that the mitigating evidence was not sufficiently
    substantial to call for leniency.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 39
    .
    The Arizona Supreme Court noted that “[t]he brutality of
    this murder clearly sets it apart from the norm of first degree
    murders.” 
    Id.
     And the court reasonably determined that
    “[c]ollectively, the mitigating evidence [was] minimal at
    most.” 
    Id.
     The court carefully reviewed the record and
    reached a reasonable conclusion under the standard
    established in Chapman and Neder v. United States,
    
    527 U.S. 1
     (1999).
    SANSING V. RYAN                        25
    C
    The dissent disagrees with our decision to defer to the
    Arizona Supreme Court’s harmless-error determination
    concerning the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance. According
    to the dissent, no deference is owed under AEDPA because
    the state court applied the wrong legal standard in making its
    determination. We disagree. The dissent is correct in
    asserting that Neder provides the applicable standard and
    that the Arizona Supreme Court was required to determine
    “whether a rational jury could have found that the facts
    called for leniency.” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1118 (emphasis
    added); see also Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 19
    ; United States v.
    Perez, 
    962 F.3d 420
    , 442 (9th Cir. 2020). In our view, that
    is the standard the Arizona Supreme Court applied, even if
    it did not use the phrase “could have found” in explaining its
    conclusion.
    As noted above, in Sansing II the court applied the
    harmless-error standard it had established in Ring III, a
    standard that was itself drawn from Neder. See Sansing II,
    
    77 P.3d at 33
    ; Ring III, 
    65 P.3d at
    944 (citing Neder,
    
    527 U.S. at 19
    ). Under that standard, the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s inquiry “focuse[d] on whether no reasonable jury
    could find that the mitigation evidence adduced during the
    penalty phase [was] sufficiently substantial to call for
    leniency.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 33
     (quoting Ring III,
    
    65 P.3d at 944
    ) (emphasis added). In other words, the court
    applied the same standard the dissent contends that Neder
    required.
    It is true, as the dissent asserts, that in finding harmless
    error as to the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance, the Arizona
    Supreme Court framed its conclusion in terms of what any
    reasonable jury “would have” found rather than what a
    reasonable jury “could have” found. But nothing of
    26                    SANSING V. RYAN
    substance turns on this choice of language. We know that to
    be true because the Supreme Court in Neder used the same
    “would have” phrase in describing the harmless-error
    standard adopted there. It instructed reviewing courts to ask,
    “Is it clear beyond a reasonable doubt that a rational jury
    would have found the defendant guilty absent the error?”
    Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 18
     (emphasis added). The Arizona
    Supreme Court asked that very question and concluded that
    the answer here is yes.
    The dissent contends that, in answering this question, the
    state court ignored and discounted Sansing’s evidence and
    generally failed to view the evidence in the light most
    favorable to him. We do not read the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s decision that way. Rather, we understand the court
    to have concluded that Sansing’s evidence, even if credited,
    was simply insufficient to allow a rational jury to find the
    existence of the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance, given his
    complete failure to establish a causal nexus and the
    uncontroverted evidence that otherwise refuted his
    impairment claim. The court stated that, given these
    evidentiary deficiencies, “[n]o reasonable jury would have
    concluded that Sansing met his burden to establish that his
    ability to control his behavior or his capacity to appreciate
    the wrongfulness of his conduct was significantly impaired.”
    Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 37
    . If no reasonable jury would have
    found a given fact, then the defendant necessarily failed to
    present “sufficient evidence to permit a finding in his favor.”
    Dissent at 46 (emphasis omitted). The Arizona Supreme
    Court thus asked the right question here; the dissent’s
    disagreement is simply with the answer the court gave.
    III. Claim 2
    We turn next to Claim 2, which alleges that Sansing’s
    trial counsel rendered ineffective assistance in presenting his
    SANSING V. RYAN                       27
    mitigation defense during the penalty phase. Sansing’s two
    attorneys, Cotto and Ronan, divided responsibilities at the
    penalty phase. Cotto assumed responsibility for disputing
    the aggravating factors, and Ronan handled Sansing’s
    mitigation defense. We therefore evaluate only Ronan’s
    performance within the Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), framework.
    The PCR court held that Sansing failed to establish either
    deficient performance or prejudice under Strickland.
    Sansing contends that the PCR court’s rejection of Claim 2
    “was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law,” and “was based on an
    unreasonable determination of the facts in light of the
    evidence presented in the State court proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d). Section 2254(d) limits our review “to the record
    that was before the state court that adjudicated the claim on
    the merits.” Cullen v. Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 181 (2011).
    We conclude that, as to most of the challenged aspects
    of Ronan’s representation, Sansing has not demonstrated
    that the PCR court’s resolution of Strickland’s deficient-
    performance prong was objectively unreasonable. As to the
    two remaining aspects of the representation, we conclude
    that the PCR court reasonably determined that Sansing has
    not demonstrated prejudice.
    A
    We begin by assessing the PCR court’s basis for
    concluding that Ronan did not render deficient performance,
    applying the “doubly deferential” standard of review
    mandated by AEDPA. Knowles v. Mirzayance, 
    556 U.S. 111
    , 123 (2009).
    28                    SANSING V. RYAN
    Sansing contends that several aspects of Ronan’s
    performance fell below the Sixth Amendment standard for
    effective representation. First, Sansing claims that Ronan
    failed to provide his experts with the materials they needed
    “to develop an accurate profile of [his] mental health.”
    Clabourne v. Lewis, 
    64 F.3d 1373
    , 1385 (9th Cir. 1995).
    Ronan could not specifically recall whether he gave the
    relevant files to Sansing’s experts, but he testified that there
    was no reason why he would not have followed his standard
    practice of doing so. Noting that counsel is “strongly
    presumed to have rendered adequate assistance,” Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 690
    , the PCR court found no reason to doubt that
    Ronan did in fact provide the records to the experts.
    Fairminded jurists could conclude that Sansing failed to
    overcome the presumption of competence accorded to
    Ronan’s representation. See Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. at 194
    .
    The strongest contrary evidence Sansing can muster is a
    discrepancy in the report of Dr. Kathryn Menendez, who
    assessed Sansing for a learning disability. Her report states
    that Sansing described himself as “an average student,” but
    the report does not mention that his grades in middle school
    were well below average—mostly D’s and F’s. From this
    inconsistency, one might infer that Dr. Menendez never
    received the school records from Ronan. But one could also
    infer that Dr. Menendez merely recorded Sansing’s
    statement and failed to cross-reference her interview notes
    with the records Ronan had given her. The conflicting
    inferences that may reasonably be drawn from this evidence
    preclude us from saying that the PCR court’s decision was
    “based on an unreasonable determination of the facts in light
    of the evidence presented in the State court proceeding.”
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(2).
    SANSING V. RYAN                       29
    Second, Sansing contends that Ronan performed
    deficiently by failing to introduce Dr. Menendez’s diagnosis
    that Sansing suffers from an anti-social personality disorder.
    The PCR court found that Ronan made a strategic decision
    not to present this evidence. Ronan testified at the
    evidentiary hearing that, “[b]ased on the report as I have now
    seen it, I would not see any reason to call [Dr. Menendez]”
    to introduce this diagnosis.
    The PCR court reasonably determined that Ronan’s
    choice not to call Dr. Menendez as a witness fell “well within
    the range of professionally reasonable judgments.”
    Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 699
    ; see Crittenden v. Ayers,
    
    624 F.3d 943
    , 968 n.15 (9th Cir. 2010). Evidence of
    Sansing’s anti-social personality disorder could have called
    into question the sincerity of Sansing’s repeated professions
    of remorse, see Beardslee v. Woodford, 
    358 F.3d 560
    , 582
    (9th Cir. 2004), even if this diagnosis can be mitigating
    under Arizona law, see Lambright v. Schriro, 
    490 F.3d 1103
    ,
    1125 (9th Cir. 2007). As we have observed, a “remorse-
    oriented strategy” can sometimes represent the defendant’s
    best path to avoid a death sentence. Elmore v. Sinclair,
    
    799 F.3d 1238
    , 1250 (9th Cir. 2015).
    Finally, Sansing alleges that Ronan’s investigation into
    and presentation of his family background was deficient in
    several respects. We disagree. For each aspect of Ronan’s
    representation, there is a “reasonable argument that counsel
    satisfied Strickland’s deferential standard.”       Richter,
    562 U.S. at 105.
    Sansing contends that Ronan failed to uphold his
    “obligation to conduct a thorough investigation of
    [Sansing’s] background.” Williams v. Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    ,
    396 (2000). As the PCR court noted, however, Sansing’s
    “difficult childhood was discovered, evaluated, and
    30                   SANSING V. RYAN
    reported” by the defense team’s mitigation specialist,
    Pamela Davis. Davis’s investigative efforts were extensive.
    She frequently visited Sansing in person and regularly
    corresponded with him about his upbringing and drug use.
    She spoke with Kara and Sansing’s sister Patsy in Arizona.
    Davis traveled to Nevada to interview Sansing’s mother,
    Glenda, and his sister Loretta. Davis also traveled to Utah
    to meet with Sansing’s father, stepmother, and two half-
    siblings, and to collect court records related to Sansing’s
    criminal history. And Davis traveled to Alabama to
    interview two more siblings, Allen and Susan, as well as
    Sansing’s aunts and uncles.
    Next, Sansing targets Ronan’s failure to present expert
    testimony causally linking his dysfunctional upbringing to
    the circumstances of the murder. At the PCR evidentiary
    hearing, Sansing presented the testimony of a developmental
    psychologist, Dr. Paul Miller. Dr. Miller viewed several
    events in Sansing’s childhood—multiple changes in
    residence, the constant proximity to domestic violence, his
    mother’s divorces, and poor father figures, among others—
    as “risk factors” that molded Sansing’s personality. He
    opined that these risk factors increased the probability of a
    “disruptive adulthood.” Notably, Dr. Miller declined to
    offer an opinion on the “role [the risk factors] may have
    played in the offense” committed by Sansing.
    The PCR court reasonably found that Ronan made a
    strategic decision not to present expert testimony linking
    Sansing’s family background to the crime. Although a
    different calculus might apply if the case had been tried
    before a jury, Ronan believed that the sentencing judge “with
    his background and experience would understand the
    information that was going to be presented in” the Davis
    letter. This choice did not fall “outside the wide range of
    SANSING V. RYAN                       31
    professionally competent assistance.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 690
    . Much of the family-background evidence “was
    neither complex nor technical”; it merely required the judge
    to make “logical connections of the kind a layperson is well
    equipped to make.” Wong v. Belmontes, 
    558 U.S. 15
    , 24
    (2009) (per curiam).
    Sansing also criticizes Ronan’s method of presenting his
    traumatic childhood to the sentencing judge. Citing the 1989
    American Bar Association Death Penalty Guidelines,
    Sansing argues that Ronan should have relied on the live
    testimony of his family members instead of (or in addition
    to) Davis’s written report. But restatements of professional
    standards, such as the ABA guidelines, are useful “only to
    the extent they describe the professional norms prevailing
    when the representation took place.” Bobby v. Van Hook,
    
    558 U.S. 4
    , 7 (2009) (per curiam). A fairminded jurist could
    credit Davis’s testimony that the submission of a written
    report was the standard way to present family-background
    evidence to a judge in Arizona in 1999.
    B
    Sansing challenges two remaining aspects of Ronan’s
    representation during the penalty phase. As to both, we will
    assume for the sake of argument that Ronan’s performance
    was deficient.
    The first concerns an additional alleged deficiency in the
    presentation of evidence related to Sansing’s family
    background.      Sansing notes that new evidence was
    discovered post-conviction and presented during the PCR
    proceedings, which he contends Ronan should have
    discovered and presented during the penalty phase. For
    instance, Sansing’s siblings testified that their mother,
    Glenda, neglected her children, frequently beat them, and
    32                   SANSING V. RYAN
    left her bedroom door open while she had sex. Glenda
    sometimes hit Sansing on the head with a spoon when he
    refused to eat his vegetables, and one stepfather would
    physically fight Sansing, then only 11 years old, to show him
    “what a real man can do.” Witnesses also described
    numerous violent episodes between Glenda and her partners.
    This new evidence “largely duplicated the mitigation
    evidence at trial.” Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. at 200
    . The
    sentencing court was informed that Glenda’s parenting skills
    were “ineffective,” that she kept the home in an
    “unacceptable” condition, that Sansing was “exposed
    weekly to domestic abuse, fueled by his mother’s and step-
    father’s abuse of alcohol,” and that “there were hundreds of
    calls to the police for domestic abuse” and frequent visits to
    the hospital for Glenda. Davis also reported to the
    sentencing court that Sansing was devastated by the death of
    his maternal grandfather and afterwards suffered from a
    “lack of positive male role models.” The sentencing court
    was aware that, in the midst of an unstable childhood,
    Sansing began abusing drugs at a young age and completed
    only one year of high school. All told, Ronan convinced the
    sentencing court, by a preponderance of the evidence, that
    Sansing had a difficult childhood and a dysfunctional family.
    Thus, even if the new evidence had been presented during
    the penalty phase, it would not have altered the character of
    Sansing’s mitigation defense in any significant respect.
    Sansing has failed to show a “reasonable probability that, but
    for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the result of the
    proceeding would have been different.” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    The final aspect of Ronan’s representation at issue
    involves his failure to investigate whether Sansing’s drug
    use was causally linked to the murder. Ronan was aware that
    SANSING V. RYAN                       33
    Sansing’s intoxication would be a principal focus of the
    penalty phase. According to Kara, when she returned home
    prior to Ms. Calabrese’s arrival, Sansing “was acting cold,”
    “wasn’t his normal” self, and “was in another world,” a state
    she attributed to his consumption of crack cocaine. Yet
    Ronan failed to contact anyone with the requisite expertise
    in substance abuse. During the PCR evidentiary hearing,
    Sansing presented new expert testimony that he contends
    Ronan should have presented during the penalty phase of the
    trial.
    We will assume that Ronan performed deficiently by
    failing to present evidence of a causal link between
    Sansing’s crack cocaine use and the murder he committed.
    We nonetheless reject Sansing’s claim because the PCR
    court reasonably determined that he failed to show prejudice.
    The expert testimony Sansing relies on had defects that, the
    PCR court permissibly found, would have undercut its
    weight with the sentencing court.
    Additional background on the expert testimony Sansing
    presented during the PCR evidentiary hearing is necessary
    before proceeding. The first expert Sansing presented was
    Dr. Richard Lanyon, an expert in clinical and forensic
    psychology. Dr. Lanyon discussed “the research showing
    that extreme and heavy cocaine use can cause psychosis, and
    that such states can last several hours.” In his view, Sansing
    “entered some kind of severely abnormal mental state” as
    Ms. Calabrese turned to leave his home. But his conclusion
    rested entirely on how Sansing described the day’s events
    during an interview with Dr. Lanyon years later. Sansing
    explained that he “became convinced” that Ms. Calabrese
    would report him to the police because she had witnessed
    him make a “surreptitious hand motion to his wife”
    indicating that Ms. Calabrese had not brought a purse. At
    34                   SANSING V. RYAN
    this point, Sansing asserted, he “stepped into a hole [where]
    everything’s dark,” and he could not see Ms. Calabrese, only
    “the outline of her figure.” Sansing told Dr. Lanyon that his
    heart was “racing and going so fast” that he thought he was
    going to die. After tackling her, Sansing “did the subsequent
    things ‘out of panic.’”
    Dr. Lanyon deemed Sansing’s stated belief that
    Ms. Calabrese intended to contact the police to be a “serious
    and pivotal cognitive distortion [that] could have been a
    product of a paranoid personality disorder, or independently,
    a product of a delusional psychotic mental state brought
    about by his cocaine intoxication.” “This delusion,”
    Dr. Lanyon concluded, “triggered a series of behaviors that
    were grossly out of character for him and are best explained
    by a psychotic mental state.”
    Sansing also presented the testimony of Dr. Edward
    French, an expert in pharmacology. He too viewed
    Sansing’s statements as establishing that “his chronic use of
    methamphetamine and crack cocaine negatively impacted
    the underlying cognitive and emotional dysfunctions
    described by Dr. Lanyon, and thereby diminished his ability
    to control his conduct toward the victim and his behavior
    several hours thereafter.” Dr. French further explained that
    his expert conclusion did not depend on the quantity of crack
    cocaine that Sansing had consumed.
    In response, the State presented its own expert,
    Dr. Michael Bayless. Dr. Bayless, a forensic and clinical
    psychologist, pointed to evidence that “Sansing admitted he
    knew what he was doing and that he knew it was wrong.”
    Rather than suffering from a “paranoid delusion,” Sansing
    took steps to avoid prosecution, albeit steps that were poorly
    calculated to that end. Sansing told Dr. Bayless that “after
    he initially attacked the victim he was aware he had crossed
    SANSING V. RYAN                     35
    the line and decided that he would attempt to make it look
    like a murder secondary to robbery and sexual assault.”
    (Sansing’s admission to Dr. Bayless is consistent with
    Kara’s account of what Sansing told her just before he raped
    Ms. Calabrese.) In Dr. Bayless’s view, “there is no
    indication that [Sansing] was suffering from any psychosis.”
    The PCR court reasonably concluded that Sansing had
    not shown a reasonable probability that the testimony of
    Dr. Lanyon and Dr. French would have allowed him to
    establish the (G)(1) mitigating circumstance. Although
    Dr. Lanyon and Dr. French opined that Sansing suffered
    from cocaine-induced psychosis, they did not describe the
    requisite impact on Sansing’s “capacity to appreciate the
    wrongfulness of his conduct” or to “conform his conduct to
    the requirements of law.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1).
    Dr. Lanyon posited that Sansing was psychotic but
    acknowledged that Sansing knew “he crossed the line,”
    feared being arrested, and acted to avoid being caught. And
    Dr. French defined psychosis broadly as a “thought
    disorder” that prevents an individual from “cop[ing] well
    with emotional things that are occurring in [his]
    environment.” This type of expert opinion falls short of
    proving substantial impairment under Arizona law,
    particularly given the evidence establishing Sansing’s
    attempts to avoid prosecution. See Medrano, 914 P.2d
    at 228; Kiles, 
    857 P.2d at
    1228–29.
    Moreover, Dr. Lanyon and Dr. French did not base their
    conclusions on the amount of cocaine Sansing ingested.
    Instead, they drew speculative inferences from Sansing’s
    descriptions of how he felt during the attack. The PCR court
    reasonably concluded that the sentencing court would have
    discounted expert testimony “marred by Sansing’s motive to
    36                       SANSING V. RYAN
    fabricate.” See State v. Poyson, 
    7 P.3d 79
    , 89 (Ariz. 2000);
    Medrano, 914 P.2d at 227.
    Nor would the new expert testimony have significantly
    altered the character of the non-statutory mitigating
    circumstances before the sentencing court. The court
    already knew that Sansing was under the influence of crack
    cocaine at the time of the crime. Because Ronan had
    introduced enough evidence to establish Sansing’s
    impairment as a non-statutory mitigating circumstance, the
    opinions of Dr. Lanyon and Dr. French would have been
    cumulative on that issue. See Smith v. Ryan, 
    823 F.3d 1270
    ,
    1296 (9th Cir. 2016). Thus, the PCR court reasonably
    concluded that the likelihood of a different sentencing
    outcome was merely “conceivable,” not reasonably
    probable. Richter, 562 U.S. at 112. 2
    Finally, Sansing contends that, even if he has not shown
    a reasonable probability of a different outcome during the
    penalty phase of the trial, we should consider the impact
    Ronan’s deficient performance had on the outcome of his
    direct appeal. Specifically, Sansing argues that, had Ronan
    presented expert testimony on crack cocaine abuse, there is
    a reasonable probability that the Arizona Supreme Court
    2
    Although it does not impact our prejudice analysis, we note one
    credibility concern with the testimony of Dr. Bayless. Based primarily
    on a hand gesture Sansing allegedly made during their interview
    together, Dr. Bayless inferred an explanation for Sansing’s decision to
    rape Ms. Calabrese—namely, that “her dress flew up,” thereby exposing
    her vaginal area. The PCR court found Dr. Bayless’s testimony credible,
    notwithstanding the fact that Ms. Calabrese was wearing pants during
    the attack. Despite the baseless nature of Dr. Bayless’s testimony on this
    point, we do not think it affected the outcome here, as the reason Sansing
    committed the rape was immaterial both to the sentencing court’s
    decision and to the PCR court’s prejudice analysis.
    SANSING V. RYAN                         37
    would not have found the Ring error harmless beyond a
    reasonable doubt in Sansing II.
    We cannot accept Sansing’s invitation to consider
    whether the testimony of Dr. French and Dr. Lanyon would
    have affected the outcome of his direct appeal. The PCR
    court did not fail to apply “clearly established Federal law,
    as determined by the Supreme Court,” when it assessed only
    the probability of a different outcome at the penalty phase of
    the trial. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). The Supreme Court has
    not yet held that courts must evaluate the impact of trial
    counsel’s deficient performance on the outcome of a
    petitioner’s direct appeal. Cf. Weaver v. Massachusetts,
    
    137 S. Ct. 1899
    , 1910–11 (2017) (requiring petitioner to
    show a reasonable probability of a different outcome at trial,
    even though trial counsel’s deficient performance consisted
    of failing to object to structural error that would have entitled
    petitioner to automatic reversal on direct appeal). Thus,
    under AEDPA, we cannot fault the PCR court for viewing
    the scope of Strickland’s prejudice analysis as extending no
    further than the trial itself.
    IV. Claims 4 and 8
    Sansing raises two closely related claims, Claims 4 and
    8, stemming from the factual basis he offered when pleading
    guilty and a related sentencing stipulation. In Claim 8,
    which we address first, Sansing contends that he did not
    knowingly and intelligently waive his privilege against self-
    incrimination when admitting a particular fact during the
    plea colloquy. In Claim 4, he alleges that Ronan rendered
    ineffective assistance during the guilty-plea process in
    violation of his right to counsel under the Sixth Amendment.
    38                    SANSING V. RYAN
    A
    Sansing frames Claim 8 as a due process challenge to the
    factual basis he provided during the plea colloquy. When he
    entered his guilty pleas, Sansing signed a written factual
    basis and orally attested to its truth at the change-of-plea
    hearing. That factual basis included an admission that “the
    victim was still conscious, alive and tied up with cords”
    when Sansing returned to the house after moving
    Ms. Calabrese’s truck (and thus was likely conscious when
    he raped her). Sansing alleges that he was unaware that his
    admission that Ms. Calabrese was conscious during the rape
    could be used to prove cruelty under the (F)(6) aggravating
    factor. For this reason, Sansing argues, the waiver of his
    privilege against self-incrimination was not knowing and
    intelligent. Because the PCR court summarily denied this
    claim, we can grant relief only if no reasonable application
    of the Supreme Court’s precedent as of 2008 “could have
    supported” the result. Richter, 562 U.S. at 102.
    Sansing relies on the Supreme Court’s decision in Boykin
    v. Alabama, 
    395 U.S. 238
     (1969), but that case did not
    require the trial court to inform Sansing during the plea
    colloquy that the State could rely on the factual basis during
    the penalty phase. To ensure that a guilty plea is “intelligent
    and voluntary,” the trial court must advise the defendant of
    three constitutional rights he waives by pleading guilty: his
    privilege against compulsory self-incrimination, his right to
    a jury trial, and his right to confront witnesses against him.
    
    Id.
     at 242–44. The trial court provided those advisements to
    Sansing during his change-of-plea hearing. The Supreme
    Court has not yet held that the trial court must affirmatively
    discuss during the plea colloquy the potential impact a
    defendant’s factual admissions may have on capital
    sentencing proceedings. Section 2254(d)(1) “does not
    SANSING V. RYAN                        39
    require state courts to extend [the Supreme Court’s]
    precedent or license federal courts to treat the failure to do
    so as error.” White v. Woodall, 
    572 U.S. 415
    , 426 (2014).
    B
    In Claim 4, Sansing asserts an ineffective-assistance-of-
    counsel claim that shares the same factual predicate as Claim
    8. We issued a certificate of appealability for this claim
    under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    (c). See Slack v. McDaniel, 
    529 U.S. 473
    , 484 (2000).
    Claim 4 centers on the same admission that
    Ms. Calabrese was conscious during the rape, but it
    encompasses a related sentencing stipulation as well.
    During the penalty phase, Sansing stipulated to the
    admission of hearsay statements made by his children so that
    the State would not call them as witnesses. The children
    reported that Sansing planned to rob whomever delivered the
    box of food, and they described how the attack unfolded. In
    addition, Sansing stipulated that Victoria Harker, a
    journalist, would have testified that Sansing told her while
    awaiting trial that “after raping and beating [Ms. Calabrese]
    so badly, he decided to kill her to end her suffering,” and that
    when he returned from moving her truck, Ms. Calabrese
    “had regained consciousness.”
    Sansing contends that Ronan rendered ineffective
    assistance because (1) he did not inform Sansing that the
    State could use the factual basis during the penalty phase of
    his trial; (2) he permitted Sansing to admit that
    Ms. Calabrese was conscious during the rape even though
    that was not an element of any of the charged offenses; and
    (3) he stipulated to the admission of out-of-court statements
    by Sansing’s children and Harker without first interviewing
    them.
    40                    SANSING V. RYAN
    Because the PCR court denied this claim without
    reasoning, we are again precluded from granting relief
    unless no reasonable application of Supreme Court
    precedent “could have supported” the result. Richter,
    562 U.S. at 102. Here, we need discuss only the prejudice
    prong of Strickland. Sansing alleges that, absent Ronan’s
    deficient performance, he would not have admitted
    Ms. Calabrese was conscious and would not have agreed to
    the sentencing stipulation. To establish prejudice under
    Strickland, he must show a reasonable probability that he
    would have received a different sentence had the admission
    and sentencing stipulation not been offered. See Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    .
    Even accepting that Ronan rendered ineffective
    assistance in the three respects described above, a
    fairminded jurist could conclude that Sansing failed to show
    a reasonable probability he would have received a different
    sentence. Sansing’s claim of prejudice is refuted by the
    State’s ability to call witnesses who would have established
    the same facts covered by the factual basis and sentencing
    stipulation.       The admission of Ms. Calabrese’s
    consciousness in the factual basis did not change the mix of
    evidence before the sentencing court because Sansing had
    already told Harker that “the victim had regained
    consciousness” when he returned from moving
    Ms. Calabrese’s truck, and that he killed her to “end her
    suffering.” Nor was Ronan’s use of a sentencing stipulation
    prejudicial, given that Sansing presented no evidence that his
    children or Harker would have testified differently if Ronan
    had refused to stipulate to the admission of their out-of-court
    statements. In other words, the State could have called
    Harker to repeat Sansing’s admission that Ms. Calabrese was
    conscious, see Ariz. R. Evid. 801(d)(2)(A), and the State
    could have replaced the sentencing stipulation with in-court
    SANSING V. RYAN                      41
    testimony by Sansing’s children.         Their statements,
    moreover, largely tracked the narrative that Kara provided
    when she testified during the penalty phase.
    V. Claim 7
    In Claim 7, Sansing alleges that the Arizona courts
    violated the Eighth Amendment by applying an
    impermissible “causal nexus” test when assessing his non-
    statutory mitigating circumstances.     See Eddings v.
    Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
    , 110 (1982).
    Beginning in 1989, and continuing through the time of
    Sansing’s trial in 1999, Arizona courts frequently applied “a
    ‘causal nexus’ test for nonstatutory mitigation that forbade
    as a matter of law giving weight to mitigating evidence, such
    as family background or mental condition, unless the
    background or mental condition was causally connected to
    the crime.” McKinney v. Ryan, 
    813 F.3d 798
    , 802 (9th Cir.
    2015) (en banc).          In 2004, the Supreme Court
    “unequivocally rejected” causal-nexus tests like Arizona’s.
    Smith v. Texas, 
    543 U.S. 37
    , 45 (2004) (per curiam); see
    Tennard v. Dretke, 
    542 U.S. 274
    , 285 (2004). We later held
    that Tennard and Smith apply retroactively on federal habeas
    review. Schad v. Ryan, 
    671 F.3d 708
    , 723 (9th Cir. 2011)
    (per curiam).
    Sansing contends that the sentencing court and the
    Arizona Supreme Court both applied the causal-nexus test
    we condemned in McKinney. We address each court’s
    actions in turn.
    The sentencing court did not treat “would-be mitigation
    evidence as legally irrelevant in violation of Eddings.”
    McKinney, 813 F.3d at 818. Although the court evaluated
    Sansing’s evidence of intoxication for a causal link to the
    42                       SANSING V. RYAN
    crime, “[w]hen applied solely in the context of statutory
    mitigation under § 13-703(G)(1), the causal nexus test does
    not violate Eddings.” Id. at 810. The court still considered
    Sansing’s impairment to be a non-statutory mitigating
    circumstance, which shows that it “did not exclude evidence
    from [its] mitigation assessment based solely on the lack of
    a causal nexus.” Mann v. Ryan, 
    828 F.3d 1143
    , 1159 (9th
    Cir. 2016) (en banc).
    The sentencing court also reduced the weight accorded
    certain mitigating circumstances due to the absence of a
    causal nexus, a choice not foreclosed by Eddings. See
    Poyson v. Ryan, 
    879 F.3d 875
    , 888 (9th Cir. 2018). After
    finding that Sansing “has shown by a preponderance of the
    evidence that he had a difficult childhood and family
    background,” the court noted that there was no “causal link
    to the horrific crime.” On that basis, the court did “not give
    significant mitigating weight” to this factor. Similarly, the
    court gave “only minimal weight” to the evidence of love
    and support from Sansing’s family “because it did not
    prevent the defendant from committing this horrible crime.”
    The sentencing court’s reference to the weight of these
    factors bolsters our conclusion that it did not strip the
    mitigating circumstances of all weight by applying an
    unconstitutional causal-nexus test. 3
    3
    For the same reason, we reject Sansing’s argument that the Arizona
    Supreme Court improperly employed a causal-nexus test in Sansing II
    when it held that a rational jury would have given “only minimal weight”
    to Sansing’s difficult childhood and lack of education absent a “causal
    link” to the crime. 
    77 P.3d at 39
    . As discussed, the lack of a causal
    nexus may appropriately bear on the weight to be given mitigating
    evidence, and a jury is “free to assign less weight to mitigating factors
    that did not influence a defendant’s conduct at the time of the crime.”
    Hedlund v. Ryan, 
    854 F.3d 557
    , 587 n.23 (9th Cir. 2017). Thus, the
    SANSING V. RYAN                           43
    Sansing argues that the Arizona Supreme Court also
    applied an impermissible causal-nexus test when
    adjudicating his claim in Sansing I that the sentencing court
    violated the Eighth Amendment. He highlights the Arizona
    Supreme Court’s assertion that “‘Arizona law states that a
    difficult family background is not relevant unless the
    defendant can establish that his family experience is linked
    to his criminal behavior.’” Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at
    1129–30
    (emphasis added) (quoting State v. Djerf, 
    959 P.2d 1274
    ,
    1289 (Ariz. 1998)). And he points to the court’s reliance on
    Djerf and State v. Hoskins, 
    14 P.3d 997
     (Ariz. 2000), two
    cases we have identified as examples of Arizona’s
    unconstitutional causal-nexus test. See McKinney, 813 F.3d
    at 814–15.
    These factors raise the possibility that the Arizona
    Supreme Court applied a rule contrary to Eddings. We need
    not resolve that issue, however, because even if the Arizona
    Supreme Court erred in this regard, Sansing cannot show
    actual prejudice from the error under Brecht. See Djerf v.
    Ryan, 
    931 F.3d 870
    , 885–87 (9th Cir. 2019); Greenway v.
    Ryan, 
    866 F.3d 1094
    , 1100 (9th Cir. 2017) (per curiam). We
    see nothing in the record remotely suggesting that the
    Arizona Supreme Court would have reached a different
    conclusion had it followed the sentencing court’s lead and
    accorded Sansing’s difficult family background minimal
    weight rather than no weight.
    Arizona Supreme Court permissibly “raised the issue of a causal nexus
    to determine the weight that a hypothetical jury would have given
    relevant mitigating evidence.” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1122 (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    44                   SANSING V. RYAN
    VI. Claim 12
    In Claim 12, Sansing alleges that the sentencing court
    violated his Eighth Amendment rights by refusing to
    consider a letter submitted by Ms. Calabrese’s 10-year-old
    daughter. In the letter, handwritten and addressed to the
    sentencing judge, Ms. Calabrese’s daughter expressed her
    view that Sansing “should go to jail instead of dying.” The
    Arizona Supreme Court upheld the sentencing court’s
    refusal to consider the letter on the ground that it was
    “irrelevant to either the defendant’s character or the
    circumstances of the crime.” Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at 1129
    .
    The court also noted that state law forbade “the
    consideration of ‘any recommendation made by the victim
    regarding the sentence to be imposed.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (D) (2001)).
    Sansing contends that the Arizona Supreme Court’s
    decision involved an unreasonable application of the
    Supreme Court’s Eighth Amendment precedent, but relief
    on this claim is precluded under 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    The Supreme Court has held that the Eighth Amendment
    prohibits the State from introducing the victim’s family’s
    recommendation that the defendant be put to death. Booth
    v. Maryland, 
    482 U.S. 496
    , 502–03 (1987); see Bosse v.
    Oklahoma, 
    137 S. Ct. 1
    , 2 (2016) (per curiam) (noting that
    Booth remains good law on this point). But the Court has
    never held that a defendant in a capital case is entitled to
    have the jury consider the victim’s family’s recommendation
    of leniency. Indeed, to our knowledge, no court has adopted
    that interpretation of the Eighth Amendment, and at least two
    circuits and a number of state high courts have rejected it.
    See United States v. Brown, 
    441 F.3d 1330
    , 1351–52 n.8
    (11th Cir. 2006); Robison v. Maynard, 
    829 F.2d 1501
    , 1504–
    05 (10th Cir. 1987); see also Kaczmarek v. State, 
    91 P.3d 16
    ,
    SANSING V. RYAN                       45
    32 n.71 (Nev. 2004) (collecting cases). These “diverging
    approaches to the question illustrate the possibility of
    fairminded disagreement.” Woodall, 572 U.S. at 422 n.3.
    *        *         *
    Because Sansing is not entitled to relief on any of the
    claims certified for our review, we affirm the district court’s
    denial of his petition for a writ of habeas corpus.
    AFFIRMED.
    BERZON, Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    I respectfully dissent. I would grant the petition as to
    Claim 1, Ring error prejudice, and so would not reach the
    other challenges to the death sentence discussed in the
    majority opinion. I concur in the majority’s analysis of
    Claims 4 and 8, relating to the factual basis Sansing offered
    when pleading guilty.
    The Arizona courts denied John Sansing’s constitutional
    right to have the facts making him eligible for a death
    sentence determined by a jury, not a judge. Ring v. Arizona,
    
    536 U.S. 584
    , 589 (2002). The Arizona Supreme Court then
    concluded that that constitutional error was harmless beyond
    a reasonable doubt because, in its view, any reasonable juror
    would have found that Sansing murdered Trudy Calabrese
    in an especially cruel and heinous way, and no reasonable
    jury “would have found” that the mitigating evidence was
    sufficiently substantial to call for leniency. State v. Sansing
    (Sansing II), 
    77 P.3d 30
    , 35–36, 39 (Ariz. 2003). In so
    holding, the Arizona Supreme Court applied the wrong legal
    46                    SANSING V. RYAN
    standard, contrary to clearly established federal law. See
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1).
    Neder v. United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
     (1999), instructs that
    the failure to have a jury determine a required element in a
    criminal case is not harmless if the defendant presented
    sufficient evidence to permit a finding in his favor. 
    Id. at 19
    .
    The question is not what a court believes a reasonable jury
    would have found, but what a reasonable jury could have
    found, given the evidence in the record. See 
    id.
     Critically, in
    reviewing whether Sansing presented sufficient evidence to
    support a finding that mitigating factors existed, the Arizona
    Supreme Court was required, but failed, to view the evidence
    in the light most favorable to Sansing. Cf. Jackson v.
    Virginia, 
    443 U.S. 307
    , 319 (1979) (explaining how to
    conduct a sufficiency-of-evidence review in the context of
    determining whether the evidence was sufficient to convict).
    The state court weighed and discounted witness testimony,
    but those determinations are improper in a sufficiency-of-
    evidence review, as it is the jury’s role to assess the weight
    and credibility of testimony. See Schlup v. Delo, 
    513 U.S. 298
    , 330 (1995) (citing Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 319
    ).
    Because the Arizona Supreme Court applied the wrong
    legal standard, we owe no deference to its harmlessness
    determination. See Inthavong v. Lamarque, 
    420 F.3d 1055
    ,
    1059 (9th Cir. 2005). I would therefore go on to review,
    under Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993), whether
    the deprivation of the right to a jury determination had a
    “substantial and injurious effect” on Sansing’s sentence. 
    Id. at 637
     (quoting Kotteakos v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 750
    ,
    765 (1946)). Under our precedent, we conduct that inquiry
    by asking the same question the Arizona Supreme Court
    should have asked: “whether a rational jury could have
    found” that Sansing had established the existence of
    SANSING V. RYAN                       47
    mitigating factors. Murdaugh v. Ryan, 
    724 F.3d 1104
    , 1118
    (9th Cir. 2013) (emphasis added).
    If the evidence is viewed in the light most favorable to
    Sansing, as is proper under Neder and Murdaugh, then
    Sansing assuredly presented sufficient evidence to allow a
    jury to conclude that, because of his crack cocaine use, his
    capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to
    conform his conduct to the requirements of law was
    “significantly impaired.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1)
    (1999). In the present context—that is, where there was no
    jury determination at all, so the question is not the likely
    impact of a constitutional error in the jury trial—the
    possibility that a jury could have so found is enough to
    establish prejudice under Brecht. Murdaugh, 724 F.3d
    at 1120. Had a jury so found, the aggravating and mitigating
    factors in Sansing’s case could reasonably have been
    weighed differently, and he could not have been sentenced
    to death. I would therefore grant Sansing’s petition for a writ
    of habeas corpus as to Claim 1.
    I.
    As recounted by the majority, Ring ruled
    unconstitutional the judge-based capital-sentencing scheme
    in effect in Arizona at the time of Sansing’s sentencing.
    Ring, 
    536 U.S. at 609
    ; Majority op. 14. Ring relied on
    Apprendi v. New Jersey, 
    530 U.S. 466
     (2000), which held
    that “the Sixth Amendment does not permit a defendant to
    be ‘exposed . . . to a penalty exceeding the maximum he
    would receive if punished according to the facts reflected in
    the jury verdict alone.’” Ring, 
    536 U.S. at
    588–89 (quoting
    Apprendi, 
    530 U.S. at 483
    ) (alteration omitted). The Court
    concluded in Ring that “[c]apital defendants, no less than
    noncapital defendants, . . . are entitled to a jury
    48                   SANSING V. RYAN
    determination of any fact on which the legislature conditions
    an increase in their maximum punishment.” 
    Id. at 589
    .
    The Arizona capital sentencing statute provided that, in
    “determining whether to impose a sentence of death or life
    imprisonment,” the sentencing judge “shall take into account
    the aggravating and mitigating circumstances included in . . .
    this section and shall impose a sentence of death if the court
    finds one or more of the [enumerated] aggravating
    circumstances . . . and that there are no mitigating
    circumstances sufficiently substantial to call for leniency.”
    
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (E) (1999). We have interpreted
    Ring to require that a jury determine not only the “presence
    or absence of the aggravating factors required by Arizona
    law for imposition of the death penalty,” Ring, 
    536 U.S. at 588
    , but also “the existence or absence of mitigating
    circumstances,” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1117. Murdaugh
    concluded that Ring requires this dual finding because under
    the Arizona scheme, “a defendant’s eligibility for a death
    sentence was effectively contingent on the judge’s findings
    regarding both aggravating and mitigating circumstances,”
    as the “‘ultimate element’ qualifying the defendant for death
    was ‘at least one aggravating circumstance not outweighed
    by one or more mitigating factors.’” Id. at 1115 (quoting
    State v. Ring, 
    65 P.3d 915
    , 935 (Ariz. 2003)).
    Notably, Murdaugh did not hold that the weighing of
    aggravating against mitigating factors is a factual
    determination that must under Ring be carried out by a jury.
    Recently, the Supreme Court held that “a jury (as opposed to
    a judge) is not constitutionally required to weigh the
    aggravating and mitigating circumstances or to make the
    ultimate sentencing decision within the relevant sentencing
    range.” McKinney v. Arizona, 
    140 S. Ct. 702
    , 707 (2020)
    (emphasis added). McKinney does not affect Murdaugh’s
    SANSING V. RYAN                                49
    conclusion that a jury must find “the existence or absence of
    mitigating circumstances.” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1117
    (emphasis added). We therefore remain bound by our
    precedent to consider whether the Arizona courts’
    deprivation of Sansing’s right to have a jury determine the
    presence or absence of mitigating factors was harmless. 1
    II.
    The majority determines that the Arizona Supreme
    Court’s application of the “harmless beyond a reasonable
    doubt” standard from Chapman v. California, 
    386 U.S. 18
    ,
    24 (1967), was not objectively unreasonable under the
    Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act (“AEDPA”),
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). Majority op. 18. The majority
    concludes that habeas relief is therefore not warranted, and
    finds no need to apply the “substantial and injurious effect”
    standard from Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
    . A court granting
    habeas relief must, however, apply both the
    1
    In my view, the right to have a jury find the facts required to impose
    the death penalty is fundamental, and the deprivation of that right can
    never be harmless. See Sullivan v. Louisiana, 
    508 U.S. 275
    , 281–82
    (1993) (deprivation of the right to trial by jury “unquestionably qualifies
    as structural error” (internal quotation marks omitted)); Summerlin v.
    Stewart, 
    341 F.3d 1082
    , 1116 (9th Cir. 2003) (en banc), rev’d on other
    grounds, Schriro v. Summerlin, 
    542 U.S. 348
     (2004); Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 40
     (Jones, C.J., concurring in part and dissenting in part); State v. Ring,
    
    65 P.3d 915
    , 946–48 (Ariz. 2003) (Feldman, J., concurring in part and
    dissenting in part). Moreover, determining what a nonexistent jury would
    have done regarding a penalty phase record that would undoubtedly have
    been quite different if tried to a jury rather than a judge is an exercise in
    rank speculation that should not govern life-or-death determinations. But
    because the Supreme Court has specifically left open whether Ring error
    can be harmless, see Mitchell v. Esparza, 
    540 U.S. 12
    , 17 (2003) (citing
    Ring, 
    536 U.S. at
    609 n.7), we have held that we must defer to the
    Arizona Supreme Court’s decision to apply harmless error review, see
    Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1117. This opinion follows that course.
    50                    SANSING V. RYAN
    AEDPA/Chapman test as well as the standard set forth in
    Brecht. Brown v. Davenport, 
    142 S. Ct. 1510
    , 1517, 1520,
    1524 (2022). I therefore apply both tests here.
    A.
    The majority errs in its review of the state court’s
    application of Chapman. The state court’s application was
    contrary to federal law, as clearly established by Neder v.
    United States, 
    527 U.S. 1
     (1999). Neder set forth narrow
    parameters for applying Chapman in cases in which an
    essential element of a criminal offense was never submitted
    to a jury at all. 
    Id. at 19
    .
    In Neder, the defendant was convicted of federal charges
    involving tax fraud. Although materiality was an element of
    the crime, the district court refused to submit the materiality
    issue to the jury. 
    Id. at 4
    . Neder applied harmless error
    review under Chapman, but it explained that because the
    omitted element was never submitted to a jury, the review
    must focus on “whether the record contains evidence that
    could rationally lead to a contrary finding with respect to the
    omitted element.” 
    Id. at 19
     (emphasis added). If, after a
    “thorough examination of the record,” the reviewing court
    “cannot conclude beyond a reasonable doubt that the jury
    verdict would have been the same absent the error—for
    example, where the defendant contested the omitted element
    and raised evidence sufficient to support a contrary finding—
    it should not find the error harmless.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added).
    The reason for conducting a sufficiency-of-evidence
    review in these circumstances instead of the typical record-
    as-a-whole Chapman inquiry is that the whole-record
    approach to Chapman cannot be applied directly where, as
    here, there was not simply a trial error during a jury trial but
    no jury at all. “[T]he question [Chapman] instructs the
    SANSING V. RYAN                        51
    reviewing court to consider is not what effect the
    constitutional error might generally be expected to have
    upon a reasonable jury, but rather what effect it had upon the
    [jury determination] in the case at hand.” Sullivan v.
    Louisiana, 
    508 U.S. 275
    , 279 (1993) (emphasis added).
    Where the constitutional error is that there was no jury at all,
    a Chapman analysis cannot be directed at answering that
    question, but must instead take into account the difficulty of
    projecting what a jury would have done on an issue never
    presented to it. See 
    id. at 280
    .
    That is why, as we have recently observed, Neder sets “a
    high bar for finding harmlessness beyond a reasonable
    doubt” with regard to an issue never decided at all by a jury.
    United States v. Perez, 
    962 F.3d 420
    , 442 (9th Cir. 2020). In
    that circumstance, the question is not whether there is,
    beyond a reasonable doubt, strong evidence to support the
    trial judge’s finding on the element in question, but whether
    there is sufficient evidence to support the defendant’s
    contentions to the contrary. 
    Id.
     Where there is, an appellate
    court cannot with any confidence predict beyond a
    reasonable doubt that a non-existent jury would have
    rejected the sufficient evidence in favor of the prosecution’s
    case.
    Importantly, a court reviewing that sufficiency-of-
    evidence question asks whether the record contains evidence
    that “could” lead to a particular finding. Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 19
    ; see Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 319
    . “[T]he use of the word
    ‘could’ focuses the inquiry on the power of the trier of fact
    to reach its conclusion,” and not on the reviewing court’s
    assessment of how a factfinder would “likely behav[e]” on
    the record as a whole. Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 330
     (quoting
    Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 319
    ). For that reason, a court applying
    Neder’s harmless error standard must view all the evidence
    52                    SANSING V. RYAN
    in the “light most favorable” to the defense assertion that
    there was sufficient evidence to support a finding in its favor,
    see Jackson, 
    443 U.S. at 319
    , and generally does not assess
    the “credibility of witnesses,” see Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 330
    .
    A useful analogy is the context of determining whether a
    criminal defendant has a right to a jury instruction on a
    defense. In that instance, as here, the defendant is deprived
    of a jury determination that should have gone forward. In the
    precluded defense context, we ask only whether the
    defendant has presented sufficient evidence to warrant the
    requested instruction, recognizing that the “weight and
    credibility of the conflicting testimony are issues [for] the
    jury, not the court,” to resolve. United States v. Becerra,
    
    992 F.2d 960
    , 963–64 (9th Cir. 1993), overruled on other
    grounds by United States v. Collazo, 
    984 F.3d 1308
    , 1335
    (9th Cir. 2021); see also United States v. Bailey, 
    444 U.S. 394
    , 414–15 (1980). Likewise, in assessing sufficiency in
    the civil summary judgment context, “[c]redibility
    determinations, the weighing of the evidence, and the
    drawing of legitimate inferences from the facts are jury
    functions, not those of a judge.” Anderson v. Liberty Lobby,
    Inc., 
    477 U.S. 242
    , 255 (1986).
    B.
    Here, the sentencing judge found it “likely” that Sansing
    “was impaired or affected by his crack cocaine usage at the
    time of the murder” but held that Sansing had not shown he
    was sufficiently impaired to establish the (G)(1) mitigating
    factor. To meet that factor, Sansing was required to prove by
    a preponderance of the evidence that his “capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his
    conduct to the requirements of law was significantly
    impaired, but not so impaired as to constitute a defense to
    prosecution.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1) (1999)
    SANSING V. RYAN                        53
    (emphasis added); Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 36
    . In other words,
    Sansing had to show that his “mental capabilities were
    significantly, but only partially, impaired.” State v. Gretzler,
    
    659 P.2d 1
    , 17 (Ariz. 1983) (upholding finding of
    impairment where “continuous use of drugs likely impaired
    defendant’s volitional capabilities” although he retained the
    ability to “distinguish right from wrong” and to “exercise
    some control over his behavior,” 
    id.
     at 16–17). In reviewing
    whether Sansing was prejudiced by the deprivation of his
    right to have a jury decide whether he had established the
    (G)(1) mitigating factor, the Arizona Supreme Court,
    contrary to Neder, failed to consider whether, viewing the
    evidence in the light most favorable to Sansing, the record
    contained sufficient evidence to allow a jury to find that
    Sansing’s capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    conduct or to conform his conduct to the requirements of law
    was significantly impaired. See Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    37–38;
    
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (G)(1) (1999).
    1. The Arizona Supreme Court began by reasoning that
    Sansing had “failed entirely to show any causal nexus
    between his alleged drug use and impairment” because he
    “presented no expert testimony to support his assertion that
    his use of cocaine impaired either his capacity to control his
    conduct or his capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness of his
    actions.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 37
    . But Sansing’s failure to
    present expert testimony would not preclude a jury from
    finding significant impairment. The Arizona Supreme Court
    has not held expert testimony required to satisfy the (G)(1)
    mitigating factor, only that it is “[t]ypically” presented. 
    Id.
    As discussed below, Sansing presented other evidence of his
    drug use and its effect on him at the time of the murder,
    which a jury could have credited.
    54                    SANSING V. RYAN
    The state court’s critique of Sansing’s failure to present
    expert testimony is particularly problematic given the nature
    of Ring error. At sentencing, Sansing’s counsel presented a
    case for mitigation to a judge, not a jury. Had there been a
    jury, counsel unquestionably would have presented the case
    differently. In a hearing on Sansing’s petition for
    postconviction review, his trial counsel stated that, although
    he did not remember the details of his decision-making
    process, he likely had not presented expert testimony
    regarding Sansing’s drug use because he “felt that Judge
    Reinstein . . . with his background and experience . . .
    understood the nexus between substance abuse and the
    commission of crimes.” In the analogous context of applying
    Neder to determine whether an Apprendi error was harmless,
    we emphasized, in a case in which the defendant was
    convicted after a guilty plea, that the “record is . . . a guide
    to determining what the evidence would have established if
    the case had proceeded to trial,” but is “not a substitute for a
    trial, and there need only be evidence sufficient to support a
    contrary finding to show that the error was not harmless.”
    United States v. Hunt, 
    656 F.3d 906
    , 913 (9th Cir. 2011).
    Here, the bench trial was no substitute for a jury trial.
    The Arizona Supreme Court’s conclusion that the
    deprivation of Sansing’s right to present his mitigation case
    to a jury was harmless because defense counsel failed, in a
    hearing before a sophisticated judge, to present expert
    testimony that he may well have chosen to present to a jury
    of laypersons does not take account of the different strategies
    that are effective at jury and at judge trials, especially where
    the death penalty is at stake. Cf. Gallegos v. Ryan, 
    820 F.3d 1013
    , 1039 (9th Cir.), opinion amended on reh’g, 
    842 F.3d 1123
     (9th Cir. 2016) (explaining that there is “really no way
    to know” how a jury would have weighed mitigating
    evidence rejected by the sentencing judge); Gallegos v.
    SANSING V. RYAN                      55
    Shinn, No. CV-01-01909-PHX-NVW, 
    2020 WL 7230698
    ,
    at *28 (D. Ariz. Dec. 8, 2020) (quoting Gallegos v. Ryan,
    820 F.3d at 1039).
    2. At the penalty phase, Sansing did present evidence
    of his drug use and its impact, albeit without expert
    testimony. He did so through a letter from a mitigation
    specialist, Pamela Davis, and the testimony of his wife, Kara
    Sansing, and his sister, Patsy Hooper. In its harmlessness
    analysis, the Arizona Supreme Court entirely ignored the
    evidence from Davis and Hooper.
    Davis reported, based on interviews with Sansing and his
    family members, that Sansing began using marijuana in fifth
    grade and struggled with drug addiction throughout his adult
    life. At the time of Ms. Calabrese’s murder, Sansing and
    Kara “had been on a four day binge of crack cocaine use,”
    during which time they had spent $750 on crack cocaine.
    Davis also quoted an article stating that heavy cocaine use
    can produce paranoia and aggression. Under Neder, the
    Arizona Supreme Court should have included this record
    evidence in its Chapman/sufficiency-of-evidence review.
    See 
    527 U.S. at 19
    .
    Although the Arizona Supreme Court discussed Kara’s
    testimony about Sansing’s drug use on the day of the murder,
    the court weighed and discounted her testimony, contrary to
    Neder. Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    37–38. In the hours before the
    murder, Sansing smoked crack cocaine at least twice—first
    by himself, while Kara was at work, and later with Kara,
    about 40 minutes before Ms. Calabrese arrived at the
    Sansing home. State v. Sansing (Sansing I), 
    26 P.3d 1118
    ,
    1123 (2001). Kara testified that when she spoke with
    Sansing over the phone before coming home from work, he
    sounded “hyped up” and “[a]nxious.” When she got home,
    she could “tell he was nervous” and that he had been using
    56                    SANSING V. RYAN
    cocaine. He was “pacing” and acting “cold.” He did not give
    her a kiss or a hug as he normally did.
    Kara testified that Sansing’s demeanor while he was
    assaulting Ms. Calabrese was different from anything she
    had witnessed in him before. She said: “He was acting cold.
    It wasn’t my husband. It wasn’t his normal. Even though he
    has smoked crack before, he wouldn’t act the way he did that
    day.” Kara elaborated that Sansing was acting like “he
    wasn’t there. It’s like he was in another world. . . . It wasn’t
    my husband.”
    The Arizona Supreme Court determined that Kara’s
    testimony was “insufficient to establish, by a preponderance
    of the evidence, that Sansing’s capacity to control his
    behavior was significantly impaired.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 37
    . In so holding, the court reasoned, first, that “Kara did not
    quantify how much crack Sansing used.” 
    Id.
     But Sansing did
    present evidence relating to the quantity of crack cocaine he
    used: the evidence from Davis that Sansing and Kara had
    spent $750 on crack cocaine in the four days leading up to
    the murder. Again, the Arizona Supreme Court improperly
    ignored that evidence.
    Second, the court held that “no reasonable jury would
    conclude that Kara’s testimony that Sansing was not acting
    himself was sufficient to establish that his capacity was
    significantly impaired.” 
    Id.
     (emphasis added). The court
    quoted a sentence from State v. Jordan, 
    614 P.2d 825
    , 832
    (Ariz. 1980), rejecting testimony that was “inexact as to
    defendant’s level of intoxication at the time of the crime”
    and lacked a “description of how defendant’s intoxication
    affected his conduct.” Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at
    37–38. Again,
    the question the Arizona Supreme Court was required to ask
    was not whether, in its view, a jury would conclude that
    Sansing’s capacity was significantly impaired, but whether
    SANSING V. RYAN                      57
    a jury could so conclude. In weighing and discounting
    Kara’s testimony, the court usurped the role of the absent
    jury, whose province it was to make credibility and
    evidence-weighing determinations. See Anderson, 
    477 U.S. at 255
    .
    Hooper testified that Sansing drove to her house the day
    after the murder and confessed to her. Hooper called their
    father, who called the police. Sansing waited with Hooper
    for the police to arrive and surrendered quietly. Hooper
    testified that Sansing looked like he “hadn’t slept for days”
    and that he “had dark circles under his eyes.” Hooper
    believed that Sansing had been “taken by the drugs he had
    been doing,” and that the drugs contributed “a lot” to his
    murder of Ms. Calabrese. Again, the Arizona Supreme Court
    should have considered this record evidence as part of its
    sufficiency-of-evidence review. See Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 19
    .
    3. In addition to improperly ignoring and discounting
    the evidence of drug use that Sansing presented, the Arizona
    Supreme Court concluded that Sansing’s “deliberate
    actions” and “steps . . . to avoid detection” “refute[d]” and
    “negate[d]” his impairment claim. Sansing II, 
    77 P.3d at 38
    .
    In so holding, the state court put emphasis on the weight of
    the prosecution’s evidence, and so failed to view the
    evidence in the light most favorable to Sansing, contrary to
    Neder.
    The evidence that Sansing planned to rob the person who
    delivered food did not preclude a rational jury from finding
    significant impairment, even if it could support the opposite
    conclusion. Viewed in the light most favorable to Sansing,
    that evidence showed that Sansing planned to commit a
    robbery, not a murder. Sansing arranged for the food
    delivery while Kara was at work, and when she returned
    home, he smoked more crack cocaine and told Kara about
    58                    SANSING V. RYAN
    his plan to rob the delivery person. Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at 1123
    . A rational jury could have concluded that Sansing’s
    impairment increased after he made the robbery plan, and
    that his impairment played a significant role in the extreme
    escalation of events from a planned robbery to a murder.
    Finally, the actions Sansing took to avoid detection did
    not preclude a finding of significant impairment. Viewed in
    the light most favorable to Sansing, those actions were minor
    and would have been obviously ineffective to a normally
    functioning person. Sansing moved Ms. Calabrese’s truck,
    but only a short distance from his house. 
    Id. at 1123
    . He
    “hid” her body by placing it under some debris in his own
    backyard, where it was visible from the alley. 
    Id.
    In Murdaugh, we addressed a defendant’s similarly
    ineffectual attempts to avoid detection—first sprinkling
    horse manure over the victim’s body, before dismembering
    it many hours later. We concluded that “a reasonable jury
    might not have found that [defendant’s] actions to cover up
    the murder demonstrated any kind of sober sophistication.”
    724 F.3d at 1120. Similarly, here, a reasonable jury might
    not have found Sansing’s efforts to avoid detection “to be
    inconsistent with a finding that [he] was ‘significantly, but
    only partially, impaired’ at the time of the offense.” Id.
    (quoting Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d at 17
    ). For example, viewed in
    the light most favorable to Sansing, a jury could conclude
    that Sansing’s ability to drive a truck a short distance did not
    defeat his contention that he was significantly, but only
    partially, impaired. Additionally, a reasonable jury might
    have interpreted Sansing’s confession to Hooper the next
    day, which the Arizona Supreme Court improperly ignored,
    as evidence that his capacity to appreciate the wrongfulness
    of his conduct or to conform his conduct to the requirements
    SANSING V. RYAN                       59
    of law did not fully return until after he had regained a
    measure of sobriety.
    Because the Arizona Supreme Court failed to conduct a
    sufficiency review under Neder, its harmlessness
    determination was “contrary to . . . clearly established
    Federal law,” and the panel majority errs in holding
    otherwise. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1); see Amado v. Gonzalez,
    
    758 F.3d 1119
    , 1136 (9th Cir. 2014) (“A decision is
    ‘contrary to’ Supreme Court precedent ‘if it applies a rule
    that contradicts the governing law set forth in [the Supreme
    Court’s] cases . . . .’” (quoting Early v. Packer, 
    537 U.S. 3
    ,
    8 (2002)) (alteration in original)). As discussed above,
    however, under current controlling law, it is not enough for
    a habeas petitioner to satisfy the AEDPA/Chapman test; the
    petitioner must still meet the Brecht standard before relief
    can be granted. See supra pp. 49–50. I turn now to the Brecht
    inquiry.
    III.
    Under Brecht, “habeas relief must be granted” if the Ring
    error “had substantial and injurious effect or influence in
    determining the jury’s verdict.” Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
    (quoting Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 765
    ).
    [I]f one cannot say, with fair assurance, after
    pondering all that happened without stripping
    the erroneous action from the whole, that the
    judgment was not substantially swayed by
    the error, it is impossible to conclude that
    substantial rights were not affected. The
    inquiry cannot be merely whether there was
    enough to support the result, apart from the
    phase affected by the error. It is rather, even
    60                    SANSING V. RYAN
    so, whether the error itself had substantial
    influence.
    Merolillo v. Yates, 
    663 F.3d 444
    , 454 (9th Cir. 2011)
    (quoting Kotteakos v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 750
    , 765
    (1946)) (alteration in original).
    Here, of course, “the underlying error is the absence of a
    jury itself.” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d at 1118. Accordingly, as
    we held in analyzing whether Ring error was prejudicial in
    Murdaugh, “the Brecht inquiry is whether the absence of a
    jury as factfinder at the penalty stage ‘substantially and
    injuriously’ affected or influenced the outcome.” Id.
    (quoting Merolillo, 
    663 F.3d at 454
    ). To answer that
    question, we ask “whether a rational jury could have found”
    that Sansing had established the (G)(1) mitigating factor. 
    Id.
    (emphasis added). If so, “it is impossible to conclude that
    substantial rights were not affected,” Merolillo, 
    663 F.3d at 454
     (quoting Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 765
    ), as we have no
    actual jury verdict against which to evaluate whether the
    verdict would have varied absent a particular trial error. In
    these circumstances, therefore, the Brecht inquiry is the
    same one the Arizona Supreme Court should have applied in
    its harmlessness review: “whether the record contains
    evidence that could rationally lead to a contrary finding with
    respect to the omitted element.” Neder, 
    527 U.S. at 19
    (emphasis added).
    Again, the evidence in the record, when properly viewed
    in the light most favorable to Sansing, was sufficient to allow
    a rational jury to find that that Sansing had proved, by a
    preponderance of the evidence, that his capacity to
    appreciate the wrongfulness of his conduct or to conform his
    conduct to the requirements of law was “significantly, but
    only partially, impaired,” Gretzler, 
    659 P.2d at
    17—even if
    SANSING V. RYAN                      61
    a jury might not have been likely to make such a finding, see
    Schlup, 
    513 U.S. at 330
    . Sansing presented testimony from
    Kara, who was present at the time of the crime; who knew
    him well, having been married to him for fourteen years; and
    who was familiar with both his use of crack cocaine and the
    effects that drug usually had on him. Kara testified that
    Sansing was high on crack cocaine when he assaulted Ms.
    Calabrese, that immediately beforehand he was anxious and
    uncharacteristically cold, that his demeanor was different
    from anything she had witnessed before, and that he seemed
    to be in another world. A jury could reasonably conclude
    based on Kara’s testimony, along with the uncontested
    evidence of Sansing’s long history of drug abuse starting in
    childhood, his recent struggle with addiction, and his and
    Kara’s consumption of $750 worth of crack cocaine in the
    days leading up to the murder, that Sansing had
    demonstrated significant impairment. Cf. State v. Hill,
    
    174 Ariz. 313
    , 330 & n.7 (1993) (holding that there was
    sufficient evidence to support the trial court’s finding that
    the (G)(1) mitigating factor was established, where the trial
    court found that the defendant was “an alcoholic, that [he
    was] most likely under the influence of alcoholic beverages
    to some extent at the time of the murder, [and] that [he was]
    a product of an alcoholic family”).
    Because Sansing was deprived of his constitutional right
    to have a jury determine the facts on which his sentence
    depended, we cannot know what a jury would have done.
    “That a rational jury might have found that the evidence
    established the (G)(1) mitigating factor is sufficient to
    establish prejudice under Brecht.” Murdaugh, 724 F.3d
    at 1120.
    Had a jury found that Sansing had proven the (G)(1)
    mitigating factor, a reasonable sentencing judge could have
    62                    SANSING V. RYAN
    weighed the aggravating and mitigating circumstances
    differently and concluded that the latter were “sufficiently
    substantial to call for leniency.” 
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 13-703
    (E)
    (1999). Or the Arizona Supreme Court could reasonably
    have so concluded when it conducted its required
    independent reweighing of aggravating and mitigating
    circumstances. See Sansing I, 
    26 P.3d at 1131
    ; cf. Strickland
    v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 695 (1984) (holding, in the
    context of an ineffective-assistance-of-counsel claim, that
    the prejudice inquiry asks “whether there is a reasonable
    probability that, absent the errors, the sentencer—including
    an appellate court, to the extent it independently reweighs
    the evidence—would have concluded that the balance of
    aggravating and mitigating circumstances did not warrant
    death,” and further noting that the prejudice inquiry is
    objective and does “not depend on the idiosyncracies [sic] of
    the particular decisionmaker”). The deprivation of the right
    to a jury determination therefore had a “substantial and
    injurious effect” on Sansing’s sentence. Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
     (quoting Kotteakos, 
    328 U.S. at 765
    ).
    Having concluded that Sansing has satisfied both the
    AEDPA/Chapman and Brecht tests for prejudicial error, I
    would grant his petition for a writ of habeas corpus as to
    Claim 1.