Curtis Fauber v. Ronald Davis ( 2022 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    CURTIS LYNN FAUBER,                       No. 17-99001
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                       2:95-cv-06601-
    GW
    RONALD DAVIS, Warden, California
    State Prison at San Quentin,                OPINION
    Respondent-Appellee.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the Central District of California
    George H. Wu, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted January 24, 2022
    Pasadena, California
    Filed August 5, 2022
    Before: Paul J. Watford, Daniel A. Bress, and
    Danielle J. Forrest, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Bress;
    Dissent by Judge Watford
    2                       FAUBER V. DAVIS
    SUMMARY *
    Habeas Corpus/Death Penalty
    The panel affirmed the district court’s judgment denying
    Curtis Fauber’s habeas corpus petition challenging his
    murder conviction and death sentence.
    The district court certified four claims for appeal.
    Claims 10(a) and (c) and Claim 41(a)(1)(16) all
    concerned the prosecutor’s alleged improper vouching for
    the credibility of witness Brian Buckley by reading to the
    jury the plea agreement in which Buckley agreed to testify
    against Fauber. In Claim 41(a)(1)(16), Fauber argued that
    trial counsel was ineffective for failing to object to the
    alleged vouching. The panel held that under Antiterrorism
    and Effective Death Penalty Act (AEDPA), the California
    Supreme Court’s decision rejecting Fauber’s ineffective
    assistance claim was not contrary to or an unreasonable
    application of clearly established law; the California
    Supreme Court could reasonably conclude that even if
    counsel acted deficiently, there was no prejudice. In Claims
    10(a) and (c), Fauber argued that the alleged vouching, and
    the state court’s allowance of the same, violated Fauber’s
    due process rights. The panel held that Fauber procedurally
    defaulted his due process vouching claims, and that even if
    the due process claims were not procedurally defaulted, they
    would fail on the merits because the alleged vouching was
    harmless.
    *
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        3
    In Claim 28(c), Fauber argued that the state trial court
    improperly excluded his unaccepted plea offer as mitigating
    evidence at the penalty phase. The panel held that no clearly
    established federal constitutional law holds that an
    unaccepted plea offer qualifies as evidence in mitigation that
    must be admitted in a capital penalty proceeding. The panel
    held that regardless, Fauber cannot show prejudice. The
    panel wrote that given the extreme aggravating factors that
    the State put forward coupled with Fauber’s already
    extensive but unsuccessful presentation of mitigating
    evidence, there is no basis to conclude that the jury would
    have reached a different result if it had considered Fauber’s
    unaccepted plea.
    The panel denied Fauber’s request to expand the
    certificate of appealability to include four additional claims.
    Dissenting in part, Judge Watford would grant Fauber’s
    habeas petition as to the exclusion of the plea offer at the
    penalty phase. Noting that the prosecutor argued that Fauber
    must be executed because he was likely to kill again if
    sentenced to life in prison, Judge Watford wrote that the trial
    court’s exclusion of the prior offer of a plea deal with a life
    sentence prevented Fauber from rebutting this claim, thereby
    violating clearly established federal law, an error that was
    not harmless.
    4                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    COUNSEL
    John S. Crouchley (argued) and Ajay V. Kusnoor, Deputy
    Federal Public Defenders; Cuauhtemoc Ortega, Federal
    Public Defender; Office of the Federal Public Defender, Los
    Angeles, California; for Petitioner-Appellant.
    Jonathan Matthew Krauss (argued), A. Scott Hayward, and
    Xiomara Costello, Deputy Attorneys General; James
    William Bilderback II and Dana M. Ali, Supervising Deputy
    Attorneys General; Lance W. Winters, Senior Assistant
    Attorney General; Gerald A. Engler, Chief Assistant
    Attorney General; Rob Bonta, Attorney General; Office of
    the Attorney General, Los Angeles, California; for
    Respondent-Appellee.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        5
    OPINION
    BRESS, Circuit Judge:
    In 1988, a California jury sentenced Curtis Fauber to
    death for murdering Thomas Urell with an ax. The
    California Supreme Court affirmed Fauber’s conviction and
    sentence on direct appeal and later denied his state habeas
    petition. Fauber now seeks federal habeas relief. He argues
    that the state prosecutor improperly vouched for a witness’s
    credibility, that his attorney was ineffective in not objecting
    to the vouching, and that the state trial court, in the penalty
    phase, improperly excluded the prosecution’s earlier plea
    offer to Fauber as claimed mitigating evidence.
    We hold that Fauber’s claims lack merit. The state
    court’s decisions are not contrary to or an unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law, 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1), and one of Fauber’s claims is procedurally
    defaulted. We affirm the judgment of the district court.
    I
    A
    More than thirty years ago, Curtis Fauber and his friend
    Brian Buckley broke into Thomas Urell’s home to steal
    drugs. When Urell woke up and discovered the intruders,
    Fauber bludgeoned Urell to death with the blunt side of an
    ax. Extensive evidence connected Fauber to the crime,
    including Buckley’s testimony (which was corroborated in
    key parts by unindicted confederate Mel Rowan), Urell’s
    autopsy, various pieces of physical evidence, and Fauber’s
    own admissions. We now summarize the facts based on the
    record before us and the California Supreme Court’s
    6                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    decision on Fauber’s direct appeal. See People v. Fauber,
    
    831 P.2d 249
     (Cal. 1992).
    Fauber and Buckley met in the Army in January 1985.
    They became close friends, with Fauber visiting Buckley’s
    family during breaks in service. In June 1985, the Army
    discharged Fauber and Buckley, and the two went to
    Buckley’s mother’s apartment in Ventura. After spending
    time in his home state of New Mexico, Fauber later returned
    to Ventura in the early summer of 1986 to stay with Buckley.
    That summer, Fauber and Buckley regularly used drugs
    with Buckley’s neighbors, Jan Jarvis and Mel Rowan. At
    one point, Jarvis mentioned that she had a former boyfriend
    named Thomas Urell who sold cocaine. Fauber was
    intrigued by the possibility of robbing Urell and asked where
    he lived. Jarvis drew a map showing the location and layout
    of Urell’s house. The group talked about robbing the home
    and a week later, all four of them drove by Urell’s house to
    scout it. Rowan told Fauber to “rip off” Urell immediately,
    but Fauber said: “No, we want to check it out for a few days.”
    Buckley and Fauber surveilled the house two more times
    before the murder.
    Approximately four days later, in the nighttime on July
    16, 1986, Buckley and Fauber put their plan into motion.
    Fauber drove with Buckley to a store near Urell’s home and
    parked his motorcycle there. They went to an adjacent beach
    and donned gloves, hats, and bandannas. Fauber carried a
    sawed-off shotgun. Fauber mentioned that he might have to
    kill Urell to prevent him from being a witness.
    The two men walked to Urell’s home and entered
    through a window. Buckley followed Fauber to the
    bedroom, where Jarvis had said the drugs would be located.
    They entered and found Urell sleeping in bed. As they
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       7
    entered, Urell woke up. In a fake Mexican accent, Fauber
    said: “Don’t move.” Urell pleaded with Fauber not to hurt
    him and said they could take anything they wanted. Buckley
    held the shotgun, and Fauber forced Urell onto his stomach
    and taped his hands behind his back.
    With Urell detained, Fauber and Buckley searched the
    residence and took assorted items, including a small amount
    of cocaine. They also found a locked safe. Urell said it had
    nothing valuable in it and that he did not know the
    combination. Fauber then found an ax under the bed. Fauber
    held the ax above Urell and, without warning, bludgeoned
    him in the back of the neck with the ax’s blunt side. Buckley
    heard the blow and left the room as Urell began making a
    hissing noise. Seconds later, Fauber delivered a second
    blow, which silenced Urell.
    Fauber met Buckley in the kitchen and suggested putting
    the safe in Urell’s vehicle. When Buckley asked him
    whether Urell was dead, Fauber said he did not know.
    Fauber then returned to the bedroom and Buckley heard
    Fauber hit Urell several more times with the ax. Fauber and
    Buckley loaded the safe onto Urell’s El Camino and drove
    to Buckley’s apartment.
    Upon arrival around 1:00 a.m., Fauber and Buckley went
    to Rowan’s apartment to obtain a key to a basement
    storeroom. Rowan saw a safe in the back of Urell’s El
    Camino and asked Fauber if Urell had been home during the
    burglary. Fauber responded that Urell had not been home.
    Fauber and Buckley took everything they had stolen from
    Urell’s residence and put it in a trailer owned by Buckley’s
    mother. They then left to dispose of Urell’s El Camino over
    a cliff.
    8                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    After returning to the apartment, Fauber and Buckley
    used Urell’s cocaine. At this point, Rowan returned and
    pressed Fauber about Urell’s whereabouts. Fauber then
    admitted that Urell had been home. He also admitted that he
    had hit Urell with an ax and believed he had killed him.
    Fauber told Rowan he had killed Urell because Urell saw his
    face, and Fauber “was not ready to leave Ventura yet.”
    Fauber also acknowledged that Urell was struggling to
    breath when he left.
    The next day, Fauber discovered how to open the safe.
    After emptying its contents, Fauber and Buckley took the
    safe to another town and dumped it near a lake because
    Rowan did not want it in his storeroom. The safe contained
    small amounts of jewelry, gold, and silver coins; Jarvis was
    directed to throw most of it away.
    When Urell did not appear for work the next day, Urell’s
    friend Ronald Siebold went to his home and found Urell’s
    lifeless body lying face down with his hands taped behind
    his back and a pillow on his head. The police arrived ten
    minutes later. Sheriffs who responded to the call described
    the room as “ransacked”—with drawers thrown open and
    clothes turned out—consistent with a robbery. They found
    an ax standing upright at the foot of the bed. Another police
    detective found the remnants of narcotics paraphernalia.
    The Chief Medical Examiner for Ventura County,
    Dr. Frederick Lovell, examined Urell’s body at the scene.
    He confirmed that Urell had died roughly 14 to 22 hours
    earlier. He also observed that Urell’s shoulders and chest
    had a blue hue, suggesting that his blood lacked sufficient
    oxygen when he died.
    Dr. Lovell also conducted an autopsy. The autopsy
    demonstrated that Urell’s hands had been tied behind his
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        9
    back before he was killed. Blood splatter indicated that Urell
    had been struck repeatedly in the back of the neck. Wounds
    on Urell’s lower left neck extending towards the skull
    evidenced closely grouped blows caused by a major force
    from a rectangular object. The wounds likely were struck
    from the same position and were consistent with the blunt
    side of an ax. The blows had prompted a “large amount of
    bleeding and hemorrhag[ing],” causing paralysis and
    limiting Urell’s ability to breath. Urell also had a broken
    neck and “one bone was separated from the other where
    they’re normally tied together by a series of very heavy,
    tough ligaments.” Dr. Lovell concluded that based on the
    “heavy purple discoloration of the face and chest,” the
    “extreme engorgement of the eyes” with bleeding under the
    skin, and the widespread hemorrhaging, Urell had died of
    either asphyxia or suffocation.
    Over the next few weeks, police began to connect Fauber
    to the murder. On July 20, 1986, they found Urell’s El
    Camino 125 feet off the side of a cliff. Then, on July 31,
    they found the door to Urell’s safe at a nearby lake.
    Eventually, the police arrested Hal Simmon, an acquaintance
    of Fauber’s, after discovering that Simmon had been using
    Urell’s telephone calling card. Simmon told the police he
    had received the number from “Brian and Curtis” and
    described where they lived. This led authorities to Fauber
    and Buckley.
    In September 1986, police arrested Buckley for a traffic
    violation. Buckley provided details about Urell’s murder,
    believing the information would not be used against him.
    That same month, police arrested Rowan for a parole
    violation. Rowan admitted his involvement in the robbery
    and discussed the murder.
    10                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    With the evidence mounting, the Ventura County police
    sent a warrant for Fauber’s arrest to his hometown of
    Española, New Mexico. Española police arrested Fauber,
    and officers then flew to New Mexico to interview him and
    take possession of any incriminating property. Fauber
    waived his Miranda rights. He admitted to police that Jarvis
    had told him about someone who had a lot of drugs and had
    drawn him a diagram to help him commit the robbery. He
    recalled that he and Buckley followed Jarvis and Rowan as
    they drove past the house.
    Police found a piece cut from Urell’s calling card in
    Fauber’s wallet. In a camper that Fauber used in Ventura,
    police also found a road atlas that belonged to Urell and that
    was stamped with the name of his employer.
    B
    On January 7, 1987, the Ventura County District
    Attorney (DA) charged Fauber with murder, robbery, and
    burglary, and filed a notice of intent to seek the death
    penalty. Fauber pleaded not guilty. In November 1987,
    police arrested Buckley in connection with Urell’s murder.
    As part of his plea agreement for second-degree murder,
    Buckley agreed to testify against Fauber. The prosecution
    granted Rowan full immunity on the condition that he too
    testify against Fauber.
    Fauber’s trial began in mid-December 1987. The
    prosecution offered Rowan and Buckley as its principal
    witnesses. Both confirmed the details of the murder and
    Fauber’s involvement. Relevant to Fauber’s vouching and
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim, the prosecution read
    Buckley’s plea agreement to the jury and utilized the plea
    agreement in the State’s closing argument. We will discuss
    the facts relating to this issue in greater detail below in our
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       11
    analysis of the vouching-related claims. The jury convicted
    Fauber of first-degree murder, robbery, and burglary.
    Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 257
    .
    C
    The trial then moved to the penalty phase for a
    determination of whether Fauber should be sentenced to
    death. In this phase, the State presented evidence that Fauber
    took part in two uncharged killings, among other violent
    misdeeds.
    The prosecution presented evidence that a few months
    before he returned to Ventura, Fauber murdered his longtime
    friend, Jack Dowdy, Jr., and threatened Jack’s wife, Kim.
    Witnesses testified that Fauber had fallen in love with Kim
    and wanted her to move with him to Albuquerque. When
    Kim did not agree, Fauber resorted to threats and violence,
    pulling a gun on Jack, holding Kim at gunpoint, appearing at
    Kim’s house unannounced and trying to choke her while she
    slept, and telling Jack that he had ruined Fauber’s chances
    with Kim and that he would therefore kill her.
    Around this time, Jack disappeared. Fauber found Kim
    and told her suggestively that Jack would not bother her
    anymore. A couple of days later, Fauber confronted Kim
    again and gave her an ultimatum: come with him or he would
    kill everyone in her house. He then put a knife to her throat
    until she agreed to leave with him. In the middle of May
    1986, Kim’s uncle Tony confronted Fauber and asked him
    to stop terrorizing his family. Fauber refused. Then, Fauber
    admitted to Tony that he killed Jack. Fauber also later told
    Buckley that “he had killed the husband of a girl named Kim
    because Kim was afraid of her husband, who had been a
    friend of [Fauber’s].” Fauber asked Buckley to help him dig
    up the body and re-bury it so animals would not expose it.
    12                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    At the penalty phase, the prosecution also presented
    evidence that Fauber murdered an acquaintance named
    David Church at a Memorial Day party at Buckley’s
    apartment in 1986. According to witnesses, Church had
    appeared drunk at the party and demanded drugs. When
    Church threatened to go to the police, Fauber and his friend,
    Chris Caldwell, took Church away.
    Police found Church’s decomposed body in a creek bed
    months later. Buckley testified that Fauber told him he
    killed Church with an ax handle, that Church “was a hard
    guy to kill,” and that he needed to get rid of the ax because
    it was covered in blood. Buckley testified that Caldwell had
    also told him about the killing. Another witness from the
    party, Pam McCormick, testified that she overheard a
    conversation in which Fauber discussed how to get rid of a
    body.
    In response to the State’s case in aggravation, Fauber’s
    counsel presented mitigating evidence concerning Fauber’s
    troubled childhood and possible mental instability, and to
    emphasize Fauber’s positive qualities. It is uncontradicted
    that defense counsel called twenty-seven witnesses to testify
    on Fauber’s behalf, including friends and family, a social
    anthropologist who had conducted an eight-month
    investigation into Fauber’s upbringing, and a psychologist
    who administered intelligence and neuropsychological
    screening tests on Fauber.
    At the penalty phase, Fauber also wanted to present
    evidence that the prosecution had initially made him a plea
    offer that would have allowed Fauber to avoid the death
    penalty in exchange for testifying against Caldwell and
    Buckley, and that Fauber refused the offer. The trial court
    disallowed this, finding that the plea agreement was “totally
    irrelevant” because it “does not relate to the defendant’s
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       13
    character, prior record or circumstance of the offense.” The
    trial court’s exclusion of Fauber’s unaccepted plea
    agreement forms the basis for another assignment of error,
    and we will set forth more facts relating to this issue below
    in our analysis.
    The jury sentenced Fauber to death.
    D
    The California Supreme Court affirmed Fauber’s
    convictions and sentence on direct appeal, People v. Fauber,
    
    831 P.2d 249
     (Cal. 1992), and the United States Supreme
    Court denied certiorari. Fauber v. California, 
    507 U.S. 1007
    (1993). In January 1993, Fauber filed a state habeas petition,
    which the California Supreme Court summarily denied on
    the merits.
    Fauber filed his original federal habeas petition in May
    1997, which the district court stayed so that Fauber could
    exhaust state post-conviction remedies. Fauber then filed a
    first amended federal habeas petition. Following a round of
    rulings by the district court, Fauber filed his operative
    second amended federal habeas petition in 2012.
    In May 2017, the district court denied Fauber’s petition.
    The district court then certified four claims for appeal:
    Claims 10(a), (c): whether the prosecutor
    improperly vouched for Buckley’s credibility
    by reading Buckley’s plea agreement to the
    jury.
    Claim 41(a)(1)(16): whether trial counsel
    was ineffective for failing to object to the
    alleged vouching.
    14                       FAUBER V. DAVIS
    Claim 28(c): whether Fauber’s plea offer was
    improperly excluded as mitigating evidence
    at the penalty phase.
    In this court, Fauber presses all four certified claims and
    seeks a certificate of appealability on four additional
    claims. 1
    II
    “We review a district court’s denial of a 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
     petition de novo.” Bolin v. Davis, 
    13 F.4th 797
    , 804
    (9th Cir. 2021). But unless otherwise indicated below, we
    evaluate Fauber’s claims under the deferential standard of
    review in the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act
    of 1996 (AEDPA), because Fauber filed his federal habeas
    petition after AEDPA’s effective date. See Lindh v. Murphy,
    
    521 U.S. 320
    , 336 (1997). Under AEDPA, a federal habeas
    petitioner cannot obtain relief unless the state court’s
    decision (1) is “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law, as
    determined by the Supreme Court of the United States”; or
    (2) is “based on an unreasonable determination of the facts
    1
    Fauber requests that we expand the certificate of appealability to
    include whether his counsel was ineffective in failing to present
    additional mitigating evidence and not further rebutting the
    prosecution’s aggravating evidence; whether the district court should
    have granted a hearing on the destruction of certain physical evidence;
    and whether the cumulative effect of trial counsel’s performance during
    the penalty phase warrants relief. We have carefully reviewed these
    assignments of error, including by ordering supplemental briefing. We
    now DENY Fauber’s request to expand the certificate of appealability
    because he has not made a “substantial showing of the denial of a
    constitutional right.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2253
    (c)(2); see also Miller-El v.
    Cockrell, 
    537 U.S. 322
    , 327 (2003).
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       15
    in light of the evidence presented in the State court
    proceeding.” 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d).
    To meet AEDPA’s “‘unreasonable application of’ prong,
    a petitioner ‘must show far more than that the state court’s
    decision was merely wrong or even clear error.’” Bolin,
    13 F.4th at 804 (quoting Shinn v. Kayer, 
    141 S. Ct. 517
    , 523
    (2020) (per curiam)). The state court’s application of federal
    law must stand unless it was “objectively unreasonable.”
    Bell v. Cone, 
    535 U.S. 685
    , 698–99 (2002). To prevail,
    Fauber must demonstrate that the state court’s decision “is
    so obviously wrong that its error lies ‘beyond any possibility
    for fairminded disagreement.’” Kayer, 141 S. Ct. at 523
    (quoting Harrington v. Richter, 
    562 U.S. 86
    , 104 (2011)).
    “This is a challenging standard to meet.” Bolin, 13 F.4th at
    805.
    III
    We begin with Claims 10(a) and (c) and Claim
    41(a)(1)(16), which all concern the prosecution’s alleged
    vouching using Buckley’s plea agreement, and defense
    counsel’s alleged ineffectiveness in failing to object to the
    same. We hold that under AEDPA, the California Supreme
    Court’s decision rejecting Fauber’s ineffective assistance
    claim was not contrary to or an unreasonable application of
    clearly established federal law. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). We
    further hold that Fauber procedurally defaulted his due
    process vouching claims but that regardless, Fauber cannot
    show prejudicial error.
    A
    We first set forth the relevant facts and rulings relating
    to these claims. Buckley’s plea agreement stated that
    prosecutors would conduct a preliminary interview with him
    16                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    to assess his credibility. If the DA did not find Buckley
    credible, then Buckley’s case would proceed to trial. The
    plea agreement provided that during Fauber’s trial, the judge
    who heard Buckley’s testimony would “make any necessary
    findings as to his truthfulness” for purposes of Buckley
    honoring his plea agreement, if there were a dispute between
    Buckley and the State. At Fauber’s trial, and during the
    government’s direct examination of Buckley, the prosecutor
    read the plea agreement to the jury and Buckley confirmed
    that he entered it. Defense counsel did not object.
    The prosecution returned to Buckley in its closing
    argument. The prosecutor told jurors that Brian Buckley’s
    credibility was the key to the case, stating at the outset: “If
    you don’t believe anything he says, you’ll probably acquit
    the defendant. If you believe some of what Brian Buckley
    says, you’ll find the defendant guilty of robbery and burglary
    and felony murder. And if you believe most of what Brian
    Buckley says, you’ll convict the defendant of everything.”
    Next, the prosecutor rhetorically asked the jury: “what
    would motivate Brian Buckley to frame somebody who was
    his good friend, his Army buddy, and in fact somebody who
    was his good friend into August at least?” The prosecutor
    told the jury to “remember that Brian Buckley has a
    motivation in this case to testify truthfully. And truth is not
    according to the DA, [or] to me. Truth is according to the
    Judge.” The prosecution cited Buckley’s plea agreement
    and said that “the most important part of that agreement is
    that if there is some dispute as to Brian Buckley’s
    truthfulness, that dispute will be determined by the trier of
    fact, the Judge who hears the proceedings in which Brian
    Buckley testifies.” Later, the prosecutor revisited this point
    and noted that the “main element” of Buckley’s plea
    agreement was that he had to testify truthfully. The
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       17
    prosecutor then read the agreement aloud, stopping to note
    that the trial judge’s assessment of Buckley’s candor was
    key to the plea agreement.
    The prosecutor in closing argument emphasized record
    evidence that, in the State’s view, showed that Buckley and
    Rowan were credible witnesses. The prosecutor argued that
    Buckley’s testimony was credible because it was supported
    “in almost all the details” by Rowan’s testimony. Further,
    the prosecution pointed out, Buckley’s core testimony was
    confirmed by Fauber himself when he waived his Miranda
    rights and admitted that Jarvis drew him a map of Urell’s
    house that Fauber then used to scope out Urell’s residence.
    The prosecutor at closing also underscored the
    importance of Fauber’s confession to Rowan that he had
    killed Urell. The prosecutor read some of Rowan’s more
    critical testimony aloud and argued that Fauber’s admission
    to Rowan was consistent with the autopsy results. Rowan
    had testified that Fauber admitted he thought he killed Urell,
    and that Urell was “having a hard time” breathing. The
    autopsy found that Urell had died of either suffocation or
    asphyxiation.
    Before the prosecution’s case and during final
    instructions, the trial judge instructed jurors that they were
    the “sole judges” of witness credibility:
    Every person who testifies under oath is a
    witness. You are the sole judges of the
    believability of a witness and the weight to be
    given the testimony of each witness. In
    determining the believability of a witness,
    you may consider anything that has a
    tendency in reason to prove or disprove the
    truthfulness of the testimony of the witness.
    18                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    The trial judge also read an instruction that explained the
    factors jurors could use to evaluate witness credibility,
    including the witness’s ability to remember and
    communicate, bias, motive, attitude, any prior inconsistent
    statements, and any admission of untruthfulness. As defense
    counsel would later do, during closing argument the
    prosecutor reminded jurors of their responsibility to assess
    witness credibility.
    On direct appeal, the California Supreme Court rejected
    Fauber’s vouching claim. Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at
    264–66. It
    held that Fauber forfeited this claim because his counsel had
    not objected at trial. 
    Id. at 264
    . Alternatively, the Court held
    that even if the claim were preserved, there was no reversible
    error. 
    Id.
     The Court acknowledged that, upon a proper
    objection, the trial court should have excluded the portions
    of the plea deal suggesting that the district attorney or trial
    judge would need to find Buckley credible. 
    Id. at 265
    .
    But the Court found that any error was harmless. It
    explained that there was no prejudice because “[t]he
    prosecutor argued for Buckley’s credibility based on the
    evidence adduced at trial, not on the strength of extrajudicial
    information obliquely referred to in the plea agreement.” 
    Id.
    Further, “common sense suggests” that the jury will assume
    that the prosecution had found Buckley credible, “else he
    would not be testifying.” 
    Id.
     For these and other reasons,
    “[t]he jury could not reasonably have understood Buckley’s
    plea agreement to relieve it of the duty to decide, in the
    course of reaching its verdict, whether Buckley’s testimony
    was truthful.” 
    Id.
    B
    We turn first to Fauber’s claim that his trial counsel
    provided constitutionally ineffective assistance under the
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        19
    Sixth Amendment by not objecting to the prosecutor’s
    reliance on Buckley’s plea agreement. Fauber argues that,
    without the introduction of that agreement, jurors would not
    have found Buckley to be a credible witness, and that
    without Buckley’s credible testimony, the jury would not
    have convicted him of Urell’s murder or sentenced him to
    death.
    The Supreme Court’s decision in Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), provides the governing
    framework for evaluating this claim. See Bolin, 13 F.4th at
    804. To prove ineffective assistance, Fauber must “show
    both that his counsel provided deficient assistance and that
    there was prejudice as a result.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 104
    .
    Because the State does not argue that counsel adequately
    performed, we will assume without deciding that counsel’s
    performance was constitutionally deficient and limit our
    analysis to the prejudice component.
    To show prejudice, Fauber must prove that “there is a
    reasonable probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result . . . would have been different.” Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 694
    . This standard is “highly demanding.”
    Kayer, 141 S. Ct. at 523 (quotations omitted). “A reasonable
    probability means a ‘substantial,’ not just ‘conceivable,’
    likelihood of a different result.’” Id. (quoting Cullen v.
    Pinholster, 
    563 U.S. 170
    , 189 (2011)); see also Bolin,
    13 F.4th at 804. But under AEDPA, Fauber’s showing is
    heightened. Given the AEDPA overlay, “the question is
    whether the state court reasonably could have concluded that
    the evidence of prejudice fell short of Strickland’s
    deferential standard.” Staten v. Davis, 
    962 F.3d 487
    , 500
    (9th Cir. 2020).
    In this case, the California Supreme Court summarily
    denied Fauber’s ineffective assistance claim on the merits.
    20                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    AEDPA applies under these circumstances.                Cullen,
    
    563 U.S. at 187
    . “Where a state court’s decision is
    unaccompanied by an explanation, the habeas petitioner’s
    burden still must be met by showing there was no reasonable
    basis for the state court to deny relief.” Richter, 
    562 U.S. at 98
    . As a result, we must determine “what arguments or
    theories . . . could have supported the state court’s decision;
    and then [] ask whether it is possible fairminded jurists could
    disagree that those arguments or theories are inconsistent
    with the holding in a prior decision of [the Supreme] Court.”
    
    Id. at 102
    . We hold that the state court’s rejection of
    Fauber’s Strickland claim was not objectively unreasonable
    because the California Supreme Court could conclude that
    Fauber failed to establish Strickland prejudice.
    1
    To begin, the state court could reasonably conclude that
    the content and context of the alleged vouching makes it
    unlikely to have had any material impact on jurors. Indeed,
    that was what the California Supreme Court held on direct
    appeal when it addressed Fauber’s underlying due process
    vouching claim (after first concluding it was procedurally
    defaulted). Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at
    264–66. The record bears
    out the California Supreme Court’s observation that at
    closing argument, the prosecutor focused heavily on the
    body of evidence that the jury had heard. 
    Id. at 265
    . This
    included the testimony of Buckley and Rowan confirming
    the circumstances of Urell’s murder and Fauber’s role in it;
    Fauber admitting the murder to Rowan; Fauber’s own
    incriminating statements to police; and various other
    evidence connecting Fauber to the crime.
    In addition, the California Supreme Court could fairly
    reason, as it did on direct appeal, that “common sense”
    indicates that the jury “will usually assume . . . that the
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       21
    prosecutor has at some point interviewed the principal
    witness and found his testimony believable, else he would
    not be testifying.” Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 265
    . That the
    prosecution to some extent reaffirmed a point the jury would
    likely presume anyway further reduces the prejudicial
    impact of the State utilizing Buckley’s plea agreement at
    closing.
    Any prejudice was further mitigated by the trial court’s
    instructions to the jury—and reminders from both the
    prosecution and defense—that the jurors were the ultimate
    arbiters of witness credibility. Jurors were repeatedly told
    they were the “sole judges” of whether a witness was
    believable. The trial court further instructed the jury as to
    the factors they could consider in evaluating each witness’s
    credibility, such as the witness’s motive, bias, and ability to
    remember and communicate.
    The repeated admonitions to jurors that they would
    assess witness credibility further reduces the prejudice
    associated with the alleged vouching. The California
    Supreme Court could permissibly conclude that the
    instructions made it unlikely that jurors believed that
    someone other than them bore the responsibility for
    assessing Buckley’s veracity. See Richardson v. Marsh, 
    481 U.S. 200
    , 206 (1987) (applying “the almost invariable
    assumption of the law that jurors follow their instructions”);
    United States v. Shaw, 
    829 F.2d 714
    , 718 (9th Cir. 1987)
    (holding that vouching was harmless because the
    instructions “could only be taken by the jury to mean that the
    credibility of the witness was by no means established by the
    plea agreement, and that the issue was wholly open for the
    jury to decide”).
    Fauber relatedly takes issue with the prosecutor’s
    statement that the trial judge would determine whether
    22                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    Buckley had testified truthfully in the event of a dispute. He
    argues that this made the jury believe they had less
    responsibility to gauge Buckley’s credibility. But the
    context of this statement belies this inference. The
    prosecutor raised Buckley’s plea agreement to underscore
    that Buckley had an incentive to testify truthfully because
    the trial court would determine his credibility, in the event
    of a dispute. Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 265
    . As the California
    Supreme Court validly reasoned on direct appeal, it was
    obviously “implicit . . . that the need for such a
    determination would arise, if at all, in connection with
    Buckley’s sentencing, not in the process of trying [Fauber’s]
    guilt or innocence.” 
    Id. at 265
    . In other words, “[t]he
    context of the remarks made it clear that determination
    would occur if the prosecutor sought to repudiate its
    agreement with Buckley after trial in defendant’s case.” 
    Id. at 266
    .
    2
    The California Supreme Court could also reject Fauber’s
    ineffective assistance claim because the evidence against
    Fauber was overwhelming, confirming Buckley’s testimony
    and Fauber’s guilt irrespective of the prosecution’s reliance
    on Buckley’s plea agreement. Cullen, 
    563 U.S. at 198
    (holding that petitioner failed to show prejudice due to the
    extensive evidence that the prosecution presented); United
    States v. Young, 
    470 U.S. 1
    , 17–20 (1985) (prosecutorial
    vouching was harmless in light of the “overwhelming
    evidence” of guilt); United States v. Lew, 
    875 F.2d 219
    , 223–
    24 (9th Cir. 1989) (holding that government’s vouching for
    two witnesses by eliciting testimony about the truthfulness
    requirements of their plea agreements did not rise to the level
    of plain error because “there was substantial evidence
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       23
    against [the defendant] independent of the credibility of” the
    two witnesses).
    To begin, Mel Rowan—testifying under full immunity—
    corroborated much of Buckley’s testimony. Rowan, who
    was Buckley’s neighbor and socialized with Fauber before
    and after the murder, confirmed the circumstances
    surrounding the crime. Rowan testified that Jarvis told
    Fauber and Buckley about Urell. He confirmed that Jarvis
    drew a map of Urell’s house and a layout of the interior to
    help them commit the robbery. He told the jury that he drove
    by Urell’s home with Fauber, Buckley, and Jarvis to scout it
    out. He testified that Fauber and Buckley spoke about
    committing the burglary. And he confirmed that Fauber had
    a sawed-off shotgun that night. Each of these details aligned
    with Buckley’s testimony and Fauber’s admissions after
    waiving his Miranda rights.
    Rowan then corroborated what happened after the
    murder. He testified that Fauber and Buckley returned to the
    apartment at 1:00 a.m. and that he helped Fauber unload the
    safe from Urell’s El Camino and move it into the storage
    area beneath the apartment. He recounted that Fauber
    managed to open part of the safe. And he noted that Fauber
    and Buckley disposed of the safe because Rowan did not
    want it in his storeroom. Rowan also testified that he told
    Fauber and Buckley to “get rid of [Urell’s] El Camino,” that
    Fauber and Buckley drove off with the vehicle, and that he
    did not see it again. Rowan’s testimony matched Buckley’s
    in each respect.
    Perhaps most importantly, Rowan testified that Fauber
    murdered Urell and how he did it. Rowan testified that
    Fauber told him that Urell was home during the robbery.
    Then, when Rowan asked Fauber if he had hurt Urell, Fauber
    admitted that “he thought he’d killed him.” Fauber said that
    24                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    he had “hit him” and that Urell “was having a hard time”
    breathing. Fauber also told Rowan why he killed Urell:
    Urell saw his face, and Fauber “wasn’t ready to leave
    Ventura yet.” This matched Buckley’s testimony that
    Fauber had killed Urell to prevent him from being a witness
    to the crime. And the autopsy also corroborated Rowan’s
    testimony—showing that Urell was struck repeatedly with
    an object consistent with the blunt side of an ax, and that he
    died of asphyxiation or suffocation. Underscoring Rowan’s
    importance at trial, the prosecutor’s discussion of Rowan’s
    testimony was among the last topics the jury heard before
    deliberating.
    Other evidence also corroborates Buckley’s testimony
    about the circumstances surrounding the crime. Fauber
    himself confirmed what happened before the murder when
    he waived his Miranda rights and admitted that Jarvis told
    him about Urell and that he scouted Urell’s house with
    Jarvis, Rowan, and Buckley. And physical evidence
    connected Fauber to Urell, namely, Hal Simmon using
    Urell’s telephone card number (Simmon said that Fauber
    gave it to him), Fauber having part of the calling card in his
    wallet, and Urell’s road atlas being found in a camper that
    Fauber used.
    *    *   *
    In sum, the California Supreme Court could reasonably
    conclude that even if Fauber’s counsel acted deficiently in
    failing to object to the prosecution’s use of Buckley’s plea
    agreement, there was no prejudice under Strickland.
    Fairminded jurists could determine that Fauber’s counsel
    performing differently would not create a “substantial
    likelihood of a different result” than the one the jury reached.
    Kayer, 141 S. Ct. at 524 (quoting Cullen, 
    563 U.S. at 189
    ).
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       25
    C
    We turn next to Claims 10(a) and 10(c), which share a
    factual nexus with Fauber’s ineffective assistance
    allegations. Here Fauber argues that the prosecutor
    vouching for Buckley’s credibility through his plea
    agreement, and the state trial court’s allowance of the same,
    violated Fauber’s due process rights under the Fourteenth
    Amendment. See Darden v. Wainwright, 
    477 U.S. 168
    , 181
    (1986) (“The relevant question is whether the prosecutors’
    comments ‘so infected the trial with unfairness as to make
    the resulting conviction a denial of due process.’”) (quoting
    Donnelly v. DeChristoforo, 
    416 U.S. 637
    , 643 (1974)).
    Fauber’s argument fails for two reasons: this claim is
    procedurally defaulted and Fauber cannot show prejudice
    even if the claim were preserved.
    First, Fauber’s claim is procedurally defaulted. We lack
    jurisdiction “when (1) a state court has declined to address a
    prisoner’s federal claims because the prisoner had failed to
    meet a state procedural requirement, and (2) the state
    judgment rests on independent and adequate state procedural
    grounds.” Walker v. Martin, 
    562 U.S. 307
    , 316 (2011)
    (quotations and alterations omitted).         To qualify as
    independent, a state procedural rule must not “rest primarily
    on federal law, or . . . be interwoven with the federal law.”
    Coleman v. Thompson, 
    501 U.S. 722
    , 735 (1991). “State
    rules count as adequate if they are firmly established and
    regularly followed.” Johnson v. Lee, 
    578 U.S. 605
    , 606
    (2016) (per curiam) (quotations omitted).
    Here, the California Supreme Court held that Fauber
    procedurally defaulted his due process vouching claim by
    failing to object to the prosecutor reading Buckley’s plea
    agreement to the jury. Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 264
    . This
    holding rested on California’s contemporaneous objection
    26                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    rule. Under California law, a party must make a proper and
    timely objection at trial to preserve the argument on appeal.
    See Cal. Evid. Code. § 353; People v. Ramos, 
    15 Cal.4th 1133
    , 1171 (1997).
    We have repeatedly recognized California’s
    contemporaneous objection rule as “an adequate and
    independent state law ground” that forecloses our review.
    See, e.g., Zapien v. Davis, 
    849 F.3d 787
    , 794 n.2 (9th Cir.
    2015); Fairbank v. Ayers, 
    650 F.3d 1243
    , 1256 (9th Cir.
    2011); Inthavong v. Lamarque, 
    420 F.3d 1055
    , 1058 (9th
    Cir. 2005); Paulino v. Castro, 
    371 F.3d 1083
    , 1092–93 (9th
    Cir. 2004). That remains the case even though the California
    Supreme Court also went on to address Fauber’s claim on
    the merits. See, e.g., Harris v. Reed, 
    489 U.S. 255
    , 264 n.10
    (1989).
    For the first time in his reply brief, Fauber argues that we
    should not find his due process vouching claim procedurally
    barred because he has shown cause and prejudice to excuse
    the default. While we could find this argument forfeited
    because Fauber did not raise it in his opening brief, United
    States v. Ullah, 
    976 F.2d 509
    , 514 (9th Cir. 1992), the
    argument fails regardless.
    We may review a state court decision that rests on an
    adequate and independent state ground when a party has
    shown cause for the forfeiture and prejudice flowing from it.
    Walker, 
    562 U.S. at 316
    . To show cause, a petitioner must
    point to “some objective factor external to the defense [that]
    impeded his adherence to the procedural rule.” United States
    v. Skurdal, 
    341 F.3d 921
    , 925 (9th Cir. 2003) (quotations
    omitted). “An attorney error does not qualify as ‘cause’ to
    excuse a procedural default unless the error amounted to
    constitutionally ineffective assistance of counsel.” Davila v.
    Davis, 
    137 S. Ct. 2058
    , 2062 (2017). Prejudice to excuse the
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        27
    default “requires the petitioner to establish not merely that
    the errors at trial created a possibility of prejudice, but that
    they worked to his actual and substantial disadvantage,
    infecting his entire trial with error of constitutional
    dimensions.” Bradford v. Davis, 
    923 F.3d 599
    , 613 (9th Cir.
    2019) (quotations and alterations omitted).
    Fauber cannot meet the “cause and prejudice” standard.
    To excuse his procedural default, Fauber points only to
    counsel’s alleged ineffective assistance in failing to object to
    the prosecution’s use of Buckley’s plea agreement. But we
    have already explained that counsel’s allegedly deficient
    performance did not rise to the level of a Sixth Amendment
    violation because Fauber cannot show prejudice. Given the
    State’s extensive evidence showing that Fauber killed Urell,
    Fauber cannot demonstrate that the result of his trial would
    have been different had his counsel objected and
    successfully prevented the prosecution from relying upon
    Buckley’s plea agreement. United States v. Ratigan,
    
    351 F.3d 957
    , 965 (9th Cir. 2003) (holding that “[i]n order
    to excuse his procedural default, [petitioner] must show that
    counsel’s performance was deficient and that the deficient
    performance prejudiced the defense”) (quotations omitted).
    Second, even if Fauber’s due process claims were not
    procedurally defaulted, they would fail on the merits
    because, once again, the alleged vouching was harmless.
    The parties spar at length over whether, assuming we could
    get past the procedural default, AEDPA should apply to the
    California Supreme Court’s alternative holding that
    Fauber’s vouching claim failed for lack of prejudice, given
    the California Supreme Court’s reliance on a state law
    harmlessness standard.       We need not resolve this
    disagreement. Even without AEDPA, under the standard in
    28                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    Brecht v. Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
     (1993), Fauber cannot
    prevail.
    Under Brecht, “habeas relief is only available if the
    constitutional error had a ‘substantial and injurious effect or
    influence’ on the jury verdict or trial court decision.” Jones
    v. Harrington, 
    829 F.3d 1128
    , 1141 (9th Cir. 2016) (quoting
    Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 623
    ); see also Davis v. Ayala, 
    576 U.S. 257
    , 268 (2015). “If so, or if one is left in grave doubt, the
    conviction cannot stand.” Gill v. Ayers, 
    342 F.3d 911
    , 921
    (9th Cir. 2003) (quoting Kotteakos v. United States, 
    328 U.S. 750
    , 765 (1946)). Here, for the same reasons that we
    rejected Fauber’s ineffective assistance claim, the
    prosecution’s reliance on Buckley’ plea agreement did not
    exert a substantial and injurious effect on the jury.
    Therefore, Fauber’s due process claims would fail even
    setting aside the unexcused procedural default.
    IV
    In Claim 28(c), Fauber argues that the state trial court
    improperly excluded his unaccepted plea offer as mitigating
    evidence at the penalty phase. We conclude that Fauber is
    not entitled to relief. No clearly established federal
    constitutional law holds that an unaccepted plea offer
    qualifies as evidence in mitigation that must be admitted in
    a capital penalty proceeding. Regardless, Fauber cannot
    show prejudice: given the extreme aggravating factors that
    the State put forward coupled with Fauber’s already
    extensive but unsuccessful presentation of mitigating
    evidence, there is no basis to conclude that the jury would
    have reached a different result if it had considered Fauber’s
    unaccepted plea.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       29
    A
    We again begin with the relevant facts and rulings. At
    the penalty phase, Fauber wanted to present evidence that
    the prosecution had initially offered him a plea that would
    have allowed him to avoid the death penalty in exchange for
    testifying against Buckley and Caldwell, and that Fauber
    refused the offer. Fauber’s counsel explained that he wanted
    to present Fauber’s rejection of the plea deal as character
    evidence that demonstrated Fauber’s loyalty to his friends.
    He also wanted to present the plea agreement itself as
    evidence that the district attorney “felt that [Fauber] was an
    appropriate [person] for life imprisonment rather than the
    gas chamber.” The prosecutor moved to exclude any
    reference to the unaccepted plea.
    The trial court found the evidence inadmissible under
    California Evidence Code § 352. Regarding the plea offer
    itself, the court concluded that it was “totally irrelevant”
    because it “does not relate to the defendant’s character, prior
    record or circumstance of the offense.” The court noted that
    such an agreement is “just the district attorney’s position at
    one time for reasons known to the district attorney. It has no
    bearing on the defendant whatsoever.” The trial court also
    excluded Fauber’s rejection of the plea offer. Fauber
    rejecting the offer had “very low relevancy” and “very low
    probative value” as mitigating evidence of loyalty. Instead,
    the plea agreement threatened to confuse the jury and unduly
    prolong the trial.
    At closing argument, the prosecution maintained that
    Fauber deserved the death penalty. The prosecution argued
    to the jury that “the only appropriate penalty in this case is
    the death penalty,” stating, for example: “The defendant has
    demonstrated vividly that he is a man who, if given the
    opportunity, will kill again, maybe a prison guard, maybe an
    30                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    inmate, maybe somebody that makes friends with him,
    somebody that annoys him.”
    On direct appeal, the California Supreme Court rejected
    Fauber’s claim that the trial court erred in excluding from
    the penalty phase evidence about Fauber’s unaccepted plea
    offer. Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 288
    . The Court recognized that
    “a capital defendant must be allowed to present all relevant
    mitigating evidence to the jury.” 
    Id.
     (citing Skipper v. South
    Carolina, 
    476 U.S. 1
    , 4 (1986), and Lockett v. Ohio, 
    438 U.S. 586
     (1978)). But at the same time, “the trial court determines
    relevancy in the first instance and retains discretion to
    exclude evidence whose probative value is substantially
    outweighed by the probability that its admission will create
    substantial danger of confusing the issues or misleading the
    jury.” 
    Id.
     (citing 
    Cal. Evid. Code § 352
    ). In this case, the
    California Supreme Court held, the trial court did not err in
    treating Fauber’s refusal of a plea offer as inadmissible. 
    Id.
    The Court agreed with the trial court that Fauber’s plea
    agreement provided no insight into his character and was
    “meaningless.” 
    Id. at 288
    . “Standing alone,” the Court
    concluded, “[t]he fact that the offer was made, like the fact
    that it was refused,” “sheds no light on [Fauber’s] character
    and would likely mislead rather than assist the jury in its
    determination.” 
    Id.
     In particular, “such an offer may reflect
    leniency rather than a belief that the defendant is less
    culpable for the crime charged.” 
    Id.
    Considering Fauber’s rejection of the plea offer, the
    California Supreme Court further noted that “[t]o supply
    meaning to the bare fact of the refusal, additional inquiry
    regarding the underlying reasons would have been required.”
    
    Id.
     But “[s]uch examination, as the trial court concluded,
    had the potential to mislead and confuse the jury.” 
    Id.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       31
    Justice Mosk wrote a separate concurrence on this issue.
    
    Id.
     at 296–97 (Mosk, J., concurring). He concluded that the
    trial court may have erred in excluding evidence of plea
    bargaining but that the evidence “would have added little, if
    anything, of marginal value. Therefore, any error could not
    have affected the outcome within any reasonable possibility,
    and must be held harmless beyond a reasonable doubt.” 
    Id. at 297
    .
    B
    Before us, Fauber renews his argument that the state
    court erred in excluding as supposed mitigating evidence the
    State’s life-sentence plea offer and Fauber’s rejection of it.
    On appeal, however, Fauber has adjusted his argument
    somewhat, maintaining that he was entitled to introduce this
    evidence in mitigation as a matter of due process to rebut the
    State’s argument that he presented a future danger. The
    State argues that Fauber forfeited this argument by failing to
    raise it either before the state court or the district court.
    It is certainly true that Fauber’s theory at the very least
    reflects some degree of refinement from the argument he
    presented previously. In state court and before the district
    court, Fauber largely argued that the unaccepted plea was
    mitigating because it reflected positively on his character by
    showing his loyalty to his friends. Fauber maintained that
    the plea offer was “a matter in mitigation bearing upon the
    circumstances of the offense and the character of the
    Defendant herein.” The state trial court and California
    Supreme Court appear to have reasonably understood
    Fauber’s argument in those terms.
    Before the state trial court, however, Fauber’s counsel
    also stated that the plea offer was relevant because it
    reflected “the district attorney’s attitude toward [Fauber] and
    32                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    the offenses at some point prior to trial.” And Fauber stated
    in his state court briefs that the plea offer showed the district
    attorney “felt that [Fauber] was an appropriate [person] for
    life imprisonment rather than the gas chamber,” because “a
    prior offer of a life sentence . . . suggests that in the opinion
    of the prosecutor, the defendant’s character is such that he
    should not be put to death.” At least to this extent, Fauber
    preserved the argument he raises now. We thus turn to the
    merits of this claim.
    C
    1
    In a series of decisions beginning with Lockett v. Ohio,
    
    438 U.S. 586
    , 604–05 (1978) (plurality op.), Eddings v.
    Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
    , 112 (1982), and Skipper v. South
    Carolina, 
    476 U.S. 1
    , 4 (1986), the Supreme Court
    established that in the capital sentencing context, and under
    the Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments, “the sentencer may
    not be precluded from considering, and may not refuse to
    consider, any constitutionally relevant mitigating evidence.”
    Buchanan v. Angelone, 
    522 U.S. 269
    , 276 (1998). In this
    line of cases, the Supreme Court held that capital sentencers
    may “not be precluded from considering, as a mitigating
    factor, any aspect of a defendant’s character or record and
    any of the circumstances of the offense that the defendant
    proffers as a basis for a sentence less than death.” Eddings,
    
    455 U.S. at 110
     (quoting Lockett, 
    438 U.S. at
    604–05); see
    also McCleskey v. Kemp, 
    481 U.S. 279
    , 306 (1987). In
    addition, “[w]here the prosecution specifically relies on a
    prediction of future dangerousness in asking for the death
    penalty,” the “relevance of evidence of probable future
    conduct in prison as a factor in aggravation or mitigation of
    an offense is underscored.” Skipper, 
    476 U.S. at
    5 n.1.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       33
    The Supreme Court has also made clear, however, that
    these constitutional requirements do not render states
    incapable of placing any limits on what might qualify as
    mitigating evidence. Lockett affirmed that “[n]othing in this
    opinion limits the traditional authority of a court to exclude,
    as irrelevant, evidence not bearing on the defendant’s
    character, prior record, or the circumstances of his offense.”
    
    438 U.S. at
    604 n.12. Thus, state courts in penalty phase
    proceedings “‘retain the traditional authority to decide that
    certain types of evidence may have insufficient probative
    value to justify their admission,’” and “they may enact
    reasonable rules governing whether specific pieces of
    evidence are admissible.” United States v. Tsarnaev, 
    142 S. Ct. 1024
    , 1038 (2022) (quoting Skipper, 
    476 U.S. at 11
    (Powell, J., concurring in the judgment)). The Supreme
    Court has thus “expressly held that ‘the Eighth Amendment
    does not deprive’ a sovereign ‘of its authority to set
    reasonable limits upon the evidence a capital defendant can
    submit, and control the manner in which it is submitted.” 
    Id.
    (quoting Oregon v. Guzek, 
    546 U.S. 517
    , 526 (2006))
    (alterations omitted); see also Stenson v. Lambert, 
    504 F.3d 873
    , 891 (9th Cir. 2007) (holding under AEDPA that state
    court was not objectively unreasonable in excluding claimed
    mitigating evidence).
    Fauber relies heavily on two of our cases, Summerlin v.
    Schriro, 
    427 F.3d 623
    , 640 (9th Cir. 2005) (en banc), and
    Scott v. Schriro, 
    567 F.3d 573
    , 584 (9th Cir. 2009) (per
    curiam), to argue that his unaccepted plea offer should
    qualify as mitigating evidence. In Summerlin, we held that
    capital defense counsel provided constitutionally deficient
    assistance of counsel by “utterly fail[ing] in his duty to
    investigate and develop potential mitigating evidence for
    presentation at the penalty phase.” 
    427 F.3d at 631
    . In
    explaining why counsel’s deficient performance caused
    34                       FAUBER V. DAVIS
    prejudice, we noted (among other things) that the prosecutor
    had initially offered the defendant a plea agreement that
    would have spared his life, but the offer was later withdrawn.
    
    Id.
     640–41. We regarded the unentered plea agreement as
    supportive of Strickland prejudice because it showed that
    “this was not by any means a clear-cut death penalty case.”
    
    Id. at 640
    .
    Summerlin did not address whether the unaccepted plea
    offer was itself mitigating evidence that the sentencer was
    required to consider. But Scott did address it, although in a
    somewhat truncated fashion. In Scott, we held that the state
    court had relied on an inadequate procedural bar in denying
    a capital defendant’s request for post-conviction relief.
    
    567 F.3d at
    576–77. In detailing the evidentiary proceedings
    that should take place on remand on the defendant’s claim
    that his counsel provided ineffective assistance at the penalty
    phase, we specified areas of mitigating evidence that the
    court should evaluate. 
    Id.
     583–85. Relevant here, we noted
    that the prosecution had made a plea offer to the defendant,
    but that defense counsel had rejected it over the defendant’s
    objection. 
    Id. at 584
    . Citing Summerlin, we stated that
    “evidence of the plea offer could have been introduced
    during the sentencing phase as mitigation.” 
    Id.
     That was
    because “[t]he plea offer’s mitigatory effect is clear: the
    prosecution thought this was not a clear-cut death penalty
    case.” 
    Id.
     (citing Summerlin, 
    427 F.3d at 631
    ). 2
    2
    In a parenthetical, Scott described Summerlin as “holding that
    evidence the prosecution offered to allow the defendant to plead guilty
    to second-degree murder and aggravated assault was mitigating evidence
    that could be admitted in the sentencing phase after the defendant had
    been found guilty of first-degree murder.” Scott, 
    567 F.3d at
    584 (citing
    Summerlin, 
    427 F.3d at 640
    ). While Scott would bind us in an
    appropriate case, its description of Summerlin was not accurate.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       35
    Although supportive of Fauber in some sense, these
    cases do not govern here. Summerlin did not decide the same
    issue we now consider, 
    427 F.3d at
    640–41, and neither case
    decided the issue under AEDPA’s standard of review, see
    Scott, 
    567 F.3d at 584, 586
     (no state court decision on the
    merits); Summerlin, 
    427 F.3d at
    628–29 (habeas petition
    filed pre-AEDPA). Regardless of how close Scott or
    Summerlin might be to this case, the question before us is
    whether the California Supreme Court’s decision was
    “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court of the United States.”            
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1) (emphasis added).
    And on this point, the Supreme Court has been clear:
    “circuit precedent does not constitute ‘clearly established
    Federal law, as determined by the Supreme Court,’
    
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). It therefore cannot form the basis
    for habeas relief under AEDPA.” Parker v. Matthews,
    
    567 U.S. 37
    , 48 (2012) (per curiam); see also, e.g., Lopez v.
    Smith, 
    574 U.S. 1
    , 4 (2014) (per curiam) (“We have
    emphasized, time and again, that the Antiterrorism and
    Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (AEDPA), 
    110 Stat. 1214
    , prohibits the federal courts of appeals from relying on
    their own precedent to conclude that a particular
    constitutional principle is ‘clearly established.’”); Marshall
    v. Rodgers, 
    569 U.S. 58
    , 64 (2013) (per curiam) (holding that
    under AEDPA, circuit precedent may not be “used to refine
    or sharpen a general principle of Supreme Court
    jurisprudence into a specific legal rule that th[e] Court has
    not announced”).
    When we consider the only precedent that matters here—
    Supreme Court precedent—we cannot conclude that the
    state court’s denial of relief was objectively unreasonable.
    36                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    The reason is straightforward: the Supreme Court has never
    held that an unaccepted plea offer qualifies as
    constitutionally relevant mitigating evidence, whether to
    rebut future dangerousness or for any other allegedly
    mitigating reason. See Hitchcock v. Sec’y, Florida Dep’t of
    Corr., 
    745 F.3d 476
    , 482 (11th Cir. 2014) (“The Supreme
    Court has never held that a prosecutor’s offer to take the
    death penalty off the table in return for a guilty plea is a
    mitigating circumstance.”). Fauber relies on the general
    principle that states “cannot limit the sentencer’s
    consideration of any relevant circumstance that could cause
    it to decline to impose the death penalty.” McCleskey,
    481 U.S. at 306. But for AEDPA purposes, that general
    principle is too general. And Fauber has not shown that the
    California Supreme Court unreasonably applied it.
    The Supreme Court has repeatedly reminded lower
    courts applying AEDPA not to “fram[e] [Supreme Court]
    precedents at a high level of generality.” Nevada v. Jackson,
    
    569 U.S. 505
    , 512 (2013) (per curiam); see also Brown v.
    Davenport, 
    142 S. Ct. 1510
    , 1525 (2022); Woods v. Donald,
    
    575 U.S. 312
    , 318 (2015). Were the rule otherwise, lower
    courts “could transform even the most imaginative extension
    of existing case law into clearly established federal law,”
    “collapsing the distinction between ‘an unreasonable
    application of federal law’ and what a lower court believes
    to be ‘an incorrect or erroneous application of federal law.”
    Jackson, 
    569 U.S. at 512
     (quoting Williams v. Taylor,
    
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412 (2000)). Such an approach “would defeat
    the substantial deference that AEDPA requires.” 
    Id.
    Here, nothing in Supreme Court precedent establishes
    that an unaccepted plea offer reflects an “aspect of a
    defendant’s character or record [or] any of the circumstances
    of the offense,” such that a state court must treat it as
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        37
    constitutionally relevant mitigating evidence. Eddings,
    
    455 U.S. at 110
    . Even if the rule of Lockett could be
    extended in that manner, nothing in Supreme Court
    precedent mandated that extension. See White v. Woodall,
    
    572 U.S. 415
    , 426 (2014) (holding that AEDPA “does not
    require state courts to extend [Supreme Court] precedent or
    license federal courts to treat the failure to do so as error”).
    It would therefore not be objectively unreasonable for a
    state court to instead conclude that an unaccepted plea offer
    differs from the types of mitigating evidence classically
    treated as constitutionally relevant, such as cognitive
    limitations, see e.g., Smith v. Texas, 
    543 U.S. 37
    , 44 (2004),
    an abusive upbringing, see, e.g., Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
    , 525, 528 (2003); Eddings, 
    455 U.S. at 115
    ; the
    circumstances of the offense, see, e.g., Parker v. Dugger,
    
    498 U.S. 308
    , 314 (1991); or positive character traits, see,
    e.g., Wong v. Belmontes, 
    558 U.S. 15
    , 21 (2009) (per
    curiam). That is, given the various reasons that plea offers
    are made (and rejected), they could be regarded as not
    meaningfully tied to the defendant’s “personal responsibility
    and moral guilt,” Enmund v. Florida, 
    458 U.S. 782
    , 801
    (1982), or “directly related to the personal culpability of the
    criminal defendant,” Penry v. Lynaugh, 
    492 U.S. 302
    , 319
    (1989), overruled on other grounds by Atkins v. Virginia,
    
    536 U.S. 304
     (2002). A state court could thus conclude that
    introducing this evidence at the penalty phase is not
    consonant with the constitutional objectives of the penalty
    phase determination itself.
    For these reasons, we respectfully disagree with our fine
    dissenting colleague that the alleged constitutional violation
    here is clearly established under AEDPA. The dissent
    asserts that because the Supreme Court has “adopted a broad
    rule” “requiring the admission of any relevant mitigating
    38                     FAUBER V. DAVIS
    evidence,” it follows that the California Supreme Court’s
    decision allowing the exclusion of the plea offer was
    contrary to clearly established federal law. But under
    AEDPA, when the Supreme Court sets forth rules that are
    “more general, . . . their meaning must emerge in application
    over the course of time.” Yarborough v. Alvarado, 
    541 U.S. 652
    , 664 (2004).
    That is the case here. The Supreme Court has not
    categorized an unaccepted plea offer as constitutionally
    relevant mitigating evidence. Skipper, on which the dissent
    principally relies, did not address that issue. And consistent
    with the states’ traditional authority to place limits on the
    admission of evidence that is insufficiently probative in
    mitigation, Tsarnaev, 142 S. Ct. at 1038; Lockett, 
    438 U.S. at
    604 n.12, the California Supreme Court could reasonably
    regard an unaccepted plea as qualitatively different from
    other forms of evidence that have been regarded as
    constitutionally mitigating. The dissent’s contrary position
    would violate AEDPA’s precepts.
    2
    Further confirmation of this is found in the many cases
    that have held—contrary to our decision in Scott—that
    unaccepted plea offers do not qualify as mitigating evidence.
    As the Eleventh Circuit has recognized, “[e]vidence of a
    rejected plea offer for a lesser sentence . . . is not a mitigating
    circumstance because it sheds no light on a defendant’s
    character, background, or the circumstances of his crime.”
    Hitchcock, 745 F.3d at 483. Indeed, it appears that every
    other court besides our own has reached this conclusion. See
    Wright v. Bell, 
    619 F.3d 586
    , 600 (6th Cir. 2010); Owens v.
    Guida, 
    549 F.3d 399
    , 422 (6th Cir. 2008); Bennett v. State,
    
    933 So. 2d 930
    , 953 (Miss. 2006); Howard v. State,
    
    238 S.W.3d 24
    , 47 (Ark. 2006); Neal v. Commonwealth,
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                      39
    
    95 S.W.3d 843
    , 852–53 (Ky. 2003); Wisehart v. State,
    
    693 N.E.2d 23
    , 64 (Ind. 1998); Wiggins v. State, 
    597 A.2d 1359
    , 1370 (Md. 1991), reversed on other grounds by
    Wiggins v. Smith, 
    539 U.S. 510
     (2003); Ross v. State,
    
    717 P.2d 117
    , 122 (Okla. Crim. App. 1986).
    We do not cite these out-of-circuit lower court cases as
    reflective of clearly established law under § 2254(d)(1), but
    rather as demonstrating that fairminded jurists could reach
    the same conclusion that these many courts have. “[I]n the
    face of authority that is directly contrary” to our case law,
    “and in the absence of explicit direction from the Supreme
    Court,” we “cannot hold” that the California Supreme
    Court’s decision violates clearly established federal law.
    Boyd v. Newland, 
    467 F.3d 1139
    , 1152 (9th Cir. 2006)
    (amended op.); see also Kessee v. Mendoza-Powers,
    
    574 F.3d 675
    , 679 (9th Cir. 2009) (“Because the Supreme
    Court has not given explicit direction and because the state
    court’s interpretation is consistent with many other courts’
    interpretations, we cannot hold that the state court’s
    interpretation was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, Supreme Court precedent.”).
    Instead, cases like the Eleventh Circuit’s decision in
    Hitchcock show how reasonable jurists could conclude that
    an unaccepted plea agreement is not constitutionally relevant
    mitigating evidence.      Hitchcock held that a capital
    defendant’s non-acceptance of a plea is “devoid of any moral
    significance” from a capital punishment perspective because
    Eighth Amendment mitigation is not “a matter of a particular
    prosecutor’s willingness to bargain.” 745 F.3d at 482. In
    particular, the Eleventh Circuit concluded:
    Such a plea offer does not by itself show that
    the prosecutor believed the defendant did not
    deserve the death penalty. A plea offer of a
    40                        FAUBER V. DAVIS
    non-capital sentence in a capital case may
    simply reflect a desire to conserve
    prosecutorial resources, to spare the victim’s
    family from a lengthy and emotionally
    draining trial, to spare them the possibility of
    protracted appeal and post-conviction
    proceedings (spanning in this case more than
    three decades), or to avoid any possibility,
    however slight, of an acquittal at trial. 3
    Id. at 483. And although it did not decide the question of
    constitutional relevance on this basis, the Eleventh Circuit
    pointed out that “requiring the admission of rejected plea
    offers as mitigating evidence in capital cases could have the
    pernicious effect of discouraging prosecutors from
    extending plea offers in the first place.” Id. at 484 & n.2
    (citing Wright, 
    619 F.3d at 600
    ).
    Other cases rejecting Fauber’s argument have employed
    similar reasoning as Hitchcock. See, e.g., Wright, 
    619 F.3d at
    599–601; Owens, 
    549 F.3d at
    419–22; Neal, 95 S.W.3d
    at 852–53. And applying AEDPA, the Sixth Circuit in
    Wright rejected Fauber’s same argument in response to the
    defendant’s contention that due process allowed him to
    utilize the unaccepted plea to rebut the prosecution’s
    argument of future dangerousness. See 
    619 F.3d at
    599–600
    (“Although our opinion in Owens did not address the
    specific rebuttal argument that Wright has made before this
    court—that Wright should be allowed to present evidence of
    the alleged plea offer to rebut statements by the State at
    closing argument suggesting that Wright might pose a
    3
    Indeed, as the dissent notes, the prosecutor told the trial court that
    it made the initial plea offer to Fauber because it “did not have enough
    evidence to convict Buckley and Rowan.”
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                        41
    danger to other inmates if he received a life sentence rather
    than the death penalty—[Owens’s] determination that plea
    negotiations are not relevant evidence of mitigating
    circumstances is still relevant here.”). As the Sixth Circuit
    explained, “nothing in the alleged plea offer constitutes
    relevant evidence that Wright would not pose a danger if
    given a life sentence.” 
    Id. at 601
    . That is because “[t]he
    existence of a plea offer might indicate only that the state
    believed its important interests in judicial efficiency and
    finality of judgments were sufficient to outweigh any
    potential risk associated with a life sentence, not that those
    risks did not exist.” 
    Id.
    In sum, other than our decision in Scott, the cases that
    have addressed Fauber’s argument side with the California
    Supreme Court’s result and reasoning here. Although Scott
    took a different approach, we do not think the California
    Supreme Court was objectively unreasonable in resolving
    Fauber’s claim like the majority of courts to have addressed
    the question. See Hitchcock, 745 F.3d at 483 (“We agree
    with the seven courts (we make it eight) on the majority side
    of this issue and not with the Ninth Circuit.”). Under
    AEDPA—and until the Supreme Court speaks more
    specifically on this issue—we cannot say these many other
    courts were so obviously mistaken. For these same reasons,
    the dissent’s attempt to discern clearly established law in
    Fauber’s favor in the face of so much contrary precedent
    does not withstand scrutiny.
    3
    Finally, we note that the California Supreme Court
    offered a related rationale for holding that the trial court was
    not required to allow in evidence of Fauber’s unaccepted
    plea: it would require ancillary evidentiary proceedings into
    “the underlying reasons” for the plea offer and its rejection,
    42                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    which “had the potential to mislead and confuse the jury.”
    Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 288
    . On the facts of this case, that
    reasoning reflected a valid concern, and certainly was not
    contrary to or an unreasonable application of clearly
    established Supreme Court precedent. Indeed, the Supreme
    Court has recognized that even under Lockett and its
    progeny, evidence can be excluded based on state courts’
    “evenhanded application” of their evidentiary rules, Skipper,
    
    476 U.S. at 6
    , which could include, in appropriate cases, the
    usual rules associated with balancing undue prejudice, jury
    confusion, and consumption of time against possible
    probative value, see Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at
    287–88 (citing 
    Cal. Evid. Code § 352
    ).
    These considerations were relevant here. When Fauber
    sought to have the unaccepted plea introduced, the
    prosecution asked for “a hearing with witnesses to actually
    establish the foundational basis” for the submission. The
    prosecutor explained that he had gone back through his files
    and located a letter showing that it was Fauber and his
    counsel who initially proposed a plea arrangement, but that
    Fauber then “got cold feet”—not because of loyalty towards
    his friends but “because he didn’t want to plead to something
    that was going to put him in prison for the rest of his life.”
    The prosecutor further argued that if the trial court were
    considering allowing the plea offer into evidence, the
    prosecution would want to show that the offer was based on
    the State’s knowledge of the facts when the offer was made,
    but that the record had “changed dramatically” since that
    time (with the implication that a plea offer was no longer
    appropriate). To explore these various issues, the State
    believed that the prosecutor, defense counsel, and Fauber
    may all need to testify. It is not apparent Fauber was willing
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                              43
    to do so, which would have likely opened the door to
    potentially damaging cross-examination. 4
    In whichever way the proceedings would have unfolded
    in the trial court, it is apparent that introducing Fauber’s
    unaccepted plea and his rejection of it was no
    straightforward evidentiary matter. That only contributes to
    our conclusion that the state court’s rejection of Fauber’s
    Lockett argument—a ruling that was broadly consistent with
    almost all case law on this issue—was not objectively
    unreasonable.
    D
    Even if the trial court’s exclusion of the plea offer
    violated clearly established federal law, there is no basis to
    conclude that the result of the penalty phase would have been
    any different had the jury learned of the plea offer and
    Fauber’s rejection of it. The California Supreme Court did
    not rule on this basis, and Fauber thus argues that AEDPA
    does not apply. The State does not respond on this point,
    and so we will evaluate this issue without AEDPA’s
    deferential posture. The standard of review is ultimately
    immaterial, however, because the exclusion of the plea offer
    did not have a “substantial and injurious effect or influence”
    on the jury’s decision. Brecht, 
    507 U.S. at 637
    .
    4
    The dissent errs in claiming we have “vastly overstate[d] the
    complications that might have arisen from admitting the plea offer
    evidence in this case.” Setting aside the fact that Fauber hardly presented
    his arguments to the state court in the nuanced way that the dissent now
    does, there is no basis for the dissent’s assumption that the only evidence
    relevant to the State’s initial plea offer would come from the prosecutor.
    Indeed, as we have noted, the prosecutor explained that it was Fauber
    and his attorney who had originally proposed the plea deal.
    44                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    We will assume for purposes of our analysis here that
    Fauber could have used the unaccepted plea agreement to the
    maximum mitigating effect he claims. For reasons we have
    already discussed, it is doubtful this assumption is
    warranted: the prosecution was evidently poised to provide
    testimony about the circumstances surrounding Fauber’s
    rejection of the plea agreement and how circumstances had
    changed since the State first discussed a plea offer with him.
    It seems entirely possible that introduction of the plea
    agreement could have been unhelpful to Fauber, or at the
    very least a mixed bag. But again, we will assume otherwise.
    An error is harmless in this context when “there is
    overwhelming evidence of aggravating circumstances and
    [the] proffered mitigation evidence is limited or relatively
    minor.” Djerf v. Ryan, 
    931 F.3d 870
    , 886 (9th Cir. 2019)
    (quotations omitted). Similarly, exclusion of evidence can
    be harmless when, in light of the mitigating evidence that
    was presented, the excluded evidence “would not have
    affected the balance of mitigating against aggravating
    circumstances.” Runningeagle v. Ryan, 
    825 F.3d 970
    , 985
    (9th Cir. 2016). All of this is true here.
    As an initial matter, the State presented highly
    compelling aggravating circumstances. First and foremost,
    the jury had already heard overwhelming evidence of
    Fauber’s depraved ax-murder killing of Urell, a man he had
    never met before. Fauber murdered Urell only to avoid
    being implicated in the burglary of Urell’s home. And
    Fauber went through with the murder despite the victim
    being tied up and defenseless. Even after striking Urell
    multiple times and reducing his breathing to labored hissing
    and later silence, Fauber returned to Urell’s room and struck
    him with the ax again. The highly disturbing autopsy
    results—which demonstrated that Fauber had broken Urell’s
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                      45
    neck and ruptured tough neck ligaments with the blunt side
    of an ax—underscored the barbarity of the crime and the
    decidedness of Fauber’s actions. The dissent’s effort to
    minimize Fauber’s crime as “not especially cruel or heinous”
    is thus unfounded. Indeed, the circumstances of Fauber’s
    murder of Urell was “[t]he very first factor” in aggravation
    that the prosecution asked the jury to consider.
    At the penalty phase, the State also demonstrated that
    Fauber had murdered two other people less than three
    months before killing Urell. Evidence that a capital
    defendant “had committed another murder” is “the most
    powerful imaginable aggravating evidence.”            Wong,
    
    558 U.S. at 28
     (quotations omitted). And, in this case, the
    State demonstrated that Fauber murdered not only multiple
    times but for varied reasons. The Urell murder showed
    Fauber’s capacity for homicide during a violent felony. The
    circumstances surrounding Fauber’s murders of David
    Church and Jack Dowdy, Jr., meanwhile, confirmed
    Fauber’s propensity for nearly spontaneous acts of extreme
    violence (Church) as well as targeted, vendetta-style killing
    (Dowdy).
    In the Church murder, Fauber participated in the slaying
    of an acquaintance merely to prevent the partygoer from
    reporting Fauber’s drug use to the police. As with Urell,
    Fauber hit Church with an ax handle, commenting to
    Buckley that Church “was a hard guy to kill.”
    The Dowdy murder was uniquely alarming for its own
    reasons, given the series of violent events surrounding
    Dowdy’s death. The victim was one of Fauber’s longtime
    friends. Fauber, 
    831 P.2d at 276
    . Yet, Fauber repeatedly
    terrorized his wife and her family because he was
    romantically interested in her. 
    Id.
     At different points,
    Fauber pulled a gun on Dowdy, held Kim at gunpoint
    46                        FAUBER V. DAVIS
    because she had hugged a friend, and threatened to “knock
    her off.” Id at 276–79. One night, Kim woke up and found
    that Fauber had broken in and was attempting to strangle her.
    
    Id.
     Fauber admitted to multiple witnesses—Buckley, Kim’s
    uncle, and Kim herself—that he killed Jack, whom he
    believed was preventing him from having a relationship with
    Kim. 
    Id. at 279
    . After the murder, Fauber’s violent conduct
    continued. He appeared at Kim’s grandmother’s home and
    ordered Kim to come with him at knifepoint or he would kill
    everyone in the house. 
    Id.
     When later confronted by Kim’s
    family, Fauber expressed no remorse. 
    Id.
     5
    Fauber’s plea agreement and his rejection of it paled in
    comparison to the extensive aggravating evidence of
    Fauber’s three murders and other violent actions. 6 But the
    unaccepted plea would have also added little to the robust
    case of mitigation that defense counsel put on. Cf. Fauber,
    
    831 P.2d at 297
     (Mosk, J., concurring) (explaining that the
    plea agreement “would have had added little, if anything, of
    marginal value”).       In a substantially comprehensive
    5
    The dissent attempts to minimize the aggravating evidence of
    Fauber killing Dowdy and Church on the theory that this evidence was
    relevant “primarily because [it] bore on Fauber’s future dangerousness,”
    and that if Fauber’s unaccepted plea agreement had been introduced, the
    prosecution “might have decided to avoid making a future dangerousness
    argument altogether.” But there is no basis for the dissent’s speculation
    on this point. And regardless, the evidence of Fauber killing Dowdy and
    Church was highly relevant to Fauber’s reprehensibility, in addition to
    his future dangerousness.
    6
    Fauber argues that the jury struggled to reach a decision at the
    penalty phase because it submitted a note during deliberations that
    stated: “If the jury is hung as to the decision, does the life without
    possibility of parole prevail or does the penalty phase go over again?”
    But the reason and context for this note is unclear and it cannot overcome
    the clear import of the record evidence we have discussed above.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       47
    mitigation portrait, Fauber’s counsel presented evidence of
    Fauber’s troubled childhood, positive qualities, and possible
    mental instability. Several of Fauber’s siblings and friends
    testified about his unfortunate upbringing, including his
    dysfunctional family life and the decrepit conditions of his
    childhood home. They told the jury that Fauber was the
    youngest of eleven children, only seven of whom survived
    to adulthood. Fauber’s father was an unemployed alcoholic
    who was verbally abusive and disciplined the children with
    razor straps, belts, and buckles. Fauber did not finish high
    school. As a teenager, he was involved in a motorcycle
    accident that killed one of his brothers.
    Counsel also presented two experts who testified about
    Fauber’s background. Dr. Isabel Wright, Ph.D., conducted
    an eight-month investigation into Fauber’s life. She testified
    based on her travels to Fauber’s hometown and her
    interviews of his neighbors, the school nurse, a Sunday
    school teacher, a high school vice principal, a special
    education worker, two counselors, truant and welfare
    officers, and Fauber’s friends, family, and acquaintances.
    Dr. Edward Grover, a psychologist, examined and ran tests
    on Fauber. Dr. Grover told the jury that Fauber had average
    intelligence and a possible organic brain deficit. Dr. Grover
    also informed the jury that Fauber “had impaired
    interpersonal skills and some difficulty keeping reality and
    fantasy separated.” Fauber’s friends testified that he was a
    good and caring person.
    Although Fauber’s mitigation presentation did not
    convince the jury, it was not without force. And the
    mitigating evidence that defense counsel did put on was far
    more powerful and probative of Fauber’s character and
    culpability than the plea deal. We do not mean to suggest,
    as the dissent claims, that Fauber’s mitigating evidence was
    48                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    “persuasive.” Given Fauber’s penchant for ax-murder and
    violent assault, the aggravating factors here substantially
    outweighed the mitigating evidence that Fauber put forward.
    Instead, our point is that Fauber’s mitigation presentation
    confirms that he put forward witnesses and experts who
    could shed light on his character and culpability in a way that
    the State’s plea offer could not. Therefore, there is no reason
    to believe, as the dissent maintains, that evidence of the plea
    offer was “likely to tip the scales in favor of a life sentence.”
    In short, we conclude that any error in the refusal to
    admit the plea offer was harmless. See Scott (Roger) v.
    Ryan, 
    686 F.3d 1130
    , 1135 (9th Cir. 2012) (holding that
    “[e]ven considering the totality of mitigation evidence that
    Scott introduced at the district court on remand,” including
    “evidence that the State once offered him a plea bargain,”
    “we cannot say it would have made any difference in the
    outcome”).
    *   *    *
    For the foregoing reasons, the judgment of the district
    court is AFFIRMED.
    WATFORD, Circuit Judge, dissenting in part:
    Before Curtis Fauber was tried for capital murder, the
    Ventura County District Attorney’s office offered him a plea
    deal under which Fauber would be sentenced to life in prison
    without the possibility of parole, provided that he testified
    against co-conspirators Brian Buckley and Chris Caldwell.
    Fauber turned the offer down, went to trial, and was
    convicted. At the penalty phase of his trial, Fauber sought
    to introduce evidence of the plea offer to show that the
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                               49
    District Attorney’s office did not believe the death penalty
    was required in his case. The trial court excluded the
    evidence on the ground that it had minimal relevance and
    posed a substantial risk of misleading the jury and
    prolonging the trial. During the penalty phase, the
    prosecutor argued that Fauber must be executed because he
    was likely to kill again if sentenced to life in prison. Due to
    the trial court’s ruling, Fauber could not rebut this claim by
    pointing to the District Attorney’s prior offer of a plea deal
    with a life sentence. This exclusion of relevant mitigating
    evidence violated clearly established federal law, and the
    error was not harmless. I would therefore grant Fauber’s
    habeas petition as to the exclusion of the plea offer at the
    penalty phase. 1
    I
    Before the start of the penalty phase, the prosecutor filed
    a motion in limine seeking to exclude any evidence related
    to the plea offer. In response, Fauber argued that the offer
    was relevant mitigating evidence that must be admitted
    under Lockett v. Ohio, 
    438 U.S. 586
     (1978). He asserted two
    distinct theories of relevance: (1) the plea offer reflected the
    District Attorney’s assessment of Fauber’s character and the
    circumstances of his offense; and (2) Fauber’s rejection of
    the plea offer showed the positive character trait of loyalty
    to his friends.
    The state trial court dismissed the first theory out of
    hand, declaring that the offer itself was “totally irrelevant.”
    1
    I agree with the majority that Fauber is not entitled to relief on his
    ineffective assistance and due process vouching claims. Accordingly, I
    would not grant Fauber’s habeas petition with respect to the guilt phase
    of his trial.
    50                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    The court gave greater consideration to the second theory but
    ultimately ruled that Fauber’s rejection of the plea offer was
    inadmissible under California Evidence Code § 352, which
    permits the exclusion of evidence when its probative value
    is substantially outweighed by the risk of delay, unfair
    prejudice, confusing the issues, or misleading the jury. In
    the court’s view, this evidence could be admitted only if
    Fauber testified about his reasons for rejecting the offer,
    which would permit the prosecutor to explain his decision to
    make the offer in the first place. The court concluded that a
    mini-trial on the significance of Fauber’s rejection of the
    plea offer risked confusing the issue and misleading the jury.
    In both the California Supreme Court and his federal
    habeas petition, Fauber continued to press both theories of
    relevance. This appeal, however, involves only the first
    theory: that the prosecutor’s offer of a plea deal for life in
    prison reflected an assessment of Fauber’s character and the
    circumstances of his offense. As the majority recognizes,
    Fauber has refined his claim in presenting it to this court. He
    contends that the plea offer is specifically relevant to rebut
    the prosecutor’s claim that Fauber would pose a danger to
    others if spared the death penalty. He is not arguing that plea
    offers are categorically admissible under Lockett. Rather,
    his contention is a more limited one—namely, that when a
    prosecutor explicitly urges the jury to impose a death
    sentence on the ground that the defendant will kill again if
    sentenced to life in prison, Lockett and its progeny clearly
    establish that plea offer evidence must be admitted to refute
    that claim. Although this argument is more precise than the
    one Fauber made in state court and before the federal district
    court, I agree with the majority that we must consider it on
    the merits.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       51
    II
    Under the provision of the Antiterrorism and Effective
    Death Penalty Act (AEDPA) at issue here, a federal habeas
    court may grant relief only if the state court’s decision was
    contrary to or involved an unreasonable application of
    clearly established federal law, as determined by the
    Supreme Court. 
    28 U.S.C. § 2254
    (d)(1). As noted above,
    the state trial court concluded that the plea offer itself—as
    opposed to Fauber’s rejection of it—was entirely irrelevant.
    The California Supreme Court affirmed the exclusion of the
    plea offer evidence on direct appeal, finding “no violation of
    constitutional guarantees.” People v. Fauber, 
    2 Cal. 4th 792
    ,
    856 (1992).
    A
    The Eighth and Fourteenth Amendments require that a
    capital defendant be permitted to introduce any relevant
    mitigating evidence during the penalty phase of his trial.
    This principle, first articulated by a plurality of the Supreme
    Court in Lockett, was clearly established by a majority of the
    Court in Eddings v. Oklahoma, 
    455 U.S. 104
    , 110 (1982).
    By the time of Fauber’s trial in 1987, the Court had also
    clearly established that evidence showing that a defendant
    would not pose a danger if spared the death penalty must be
    admitted under Lockett. See Skipper v. South Carolina,
    
    476 U.S. 1
    , 5 (1986). Here, the State’s plea offer was
    evidence suggesting it had determined, at some point in the
    case, that Fauber was not so likely to kill again that he must
    be executed to prevent future violence.
    The Supreme Court has held that the relevance of such
    evidence is “underscored” when the State “specifically relies
    on a prediction of future dangerousness in asking for the
    death penalty.” Skipper, 
    476 U.S. at
    5 n.1. In Skipper, the
    52                   FAUBER V. DAVIS
    state court refused to admit evidence from which the jury
    could infer that the defendant would not be violent in prison.
    
    Id. at 3
    . With this ruling in hand, the prosecutor then argued
    that the defendant would likely cause disciplinary problems
    and rape other inmates if he were sentenced to life in prison.
    
    Id.
     The Court held that the defendant’s evidence must be
    deemed relevant and potentially mitigating and that its
    exclusion violated Lockett. 
    Id. at 5
    .
    In Fauber’s case, the State’s prediction was even more
    dire. During closing arguments, the prosecutor explicitly
    told the jury that Fauber was “a man who, if given the
    opportunity, will kill again.” Just as in Skipper, the
    prosecutor argued that death was the only appropriate
    penalty after successfully excluding evidence that would
    have rebutted that very claim. And, as the Supreme Court
    recognized in Skipper, the manifest unfairness of this tactic
    confirms the relevance of the plea offer evidence.
    The California Supreme Court concluded that Fauber’s
    plea offer was not relevant mitigating evidence because the
    offer was “susceptible of numerous inferences” and did not
    unequivocally show that Fauber was not likely to be violent
    in prison. 
    2 Cal. 4th at 857
    . As a factual matter, the court
    was correct: The plea offer could have reflected an
    assessment of Fauber’s future dangerousness, an attempt at
    leniency, or the prosecutor’s reluctance to go to trial. But
    the mere fact that a jury could draw different inferences from
    a piece of evidence does not render it irrelevant. By the time
    of Fauber’s direct appeal, the Supreme Court had clearly
    established that evidence is relevant under Lockett whenever
    it has “any tendency to make the existence of any fact that is
    of consequence to the determination of the action more
    probable or less probable than it would be without the
    evidence.” McKoy v. North Carolina, 
    494 U.S. 433
    , 440
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       53
    (1990) (internal quotation marks omitted). The State’s
    willingness to offer a plea deal with a life sentence made it
    more probable that Fauber did not pose an unacceptably high
    risk of killing again in prison. And the plea offer evidence
    easily meets this low bar even if the offer was motivated
    primarily by other considerations.
    B
    The State offers three reasons why we should reject this
    conclusion and dismiss Fauber’s claim. None of them are
    persuasive.
    First, the State notes that Fauber cannot point to a
    Supreme Court decision specifically holding that plea offers
    are relevant mitigating evidence under Lockett. The
    majority opinion relies heavily on this argument, warning
    that we are not permitted to frame the Supreme Court’s
    precedents at “a high level of generality.” Maj. op. at 36
    (quoting Nevada v. Jackson, 
    569 U.S. 505
    , 512 (2013) (per
    curiam)). But the Supreme Court has also instructed that
    AEDPA’s demand for clearly established law can be
    satisfied by a general standard; the statute “does not require
    state and federal courts to wait for some nearly identical
    factual pattern before a legal rule must be applied.” Panetti
    v. Quarterman, 
    551 U.S. 930
    , 953 (2007) (internal quotation
    marks omitted). This is particularly true when the Court has
    adopted a broad rule—such as requiring the admission of
    any relevant mitigating evidence—and there are potentially
    infinite forms that such evidence could take. Here, Fauber
    argues that evidence of a prior plea offer must be admitted
    when the prosecutor relies on a prediction of future
    dangerousness in arguing for the death penalty. He need not
    identify a Supreme Court decision addressing this narrow
    factual circumstance to prevail on his claim.
    54                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    The majority recites a long list of mitigators that the
    Supreme Court has recognized under Lockett, pointing out
    that it does not include plea offer evidence. Maj. op. at 37.
    But the breadth of this list merely confirms that the Lockett
    rule is expansive and should not be applied rigidly in the
    AEDPA context. In fact, the only specific category of
    potentially mitigating evidence that the Supreme Court has
    held excludable under Lockett is evidence of “residual
    doubt” as to the defendant’s guilt. Oregon v. Guzek,
    
    546 U.S. 517
    , 523–27 (2006); see also Franklin v. Lynaugh,
    
    487 U.S. 164
    , 172–73 (1988) (plurality opinion). As the
    Court pointed out in Guzek, such evidence is logically
    irrelevant to the sentencing-phase inquiry because the
    defendant’s commission of the offense was already
    conclusively determined at the guilt phase. 
    546 U.S. at 526
    .
    The same cannot be said about the plea offer evidence in this
    case.
    Second, the State argues that the plea offer is irrelevant
    because it represents only the opinion of the District
    Attorney’s office. The State notes that a prosecutor is
    categorically prohibited from expressing the alternative
    view, that is, his personal belief that a defendant deserves the
    death penalty. Hence, the State reasons, the prosecutor’s
    contrary view must be legally irrelevant.
    The State’s argument relies on a faulty premise. The rule
    prohibiting prosecutors from offering their personal view of
    a defendant’s guilt rests on principles of fairness, not
    relevance. It was created to prevent prosecutors from
    invoking their authority and credibility to sway juries and
    obtain unreliable convictions, as both the Supreme Court and
    our court have recognized. See Berger v. United States,
    
    295 U.S. 78
    , 88 (1935); United States v. McKoy, 
    771 F.2d 1207
    , 1211–12 (9th Cir. 1985). We therefore cannot infer
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                         55
    from the prohibition against expressing personal views of
    guilt that the District Attorney’s assessment of a defendant’s
    potential future dangerousness is irrelevant to the jury’s
    decision. To the contrary, it is entirely reasonable for a jury
    to expect that, when making charging decisions concerning
    the death penalty, a prosecutor will take into account the risk
    that a defendant will be violent in the future.
    This is not to say that a plea offer must invariably be
    admitted in any capital case to show in general terms that
    “the prosecution believed that a death sentence was not
    warranted.” Hitchcock v. Secretary, Florida Department of
    Corrections, 
    745 F.3d 476
    , 480 (11th Cir. 2014). Here, the
    offer was admissible for the specific purpose of showing the
    District Attorney’s implicit evaluation of Fauber’s future
    dangerousness. The prosecutor’s prediction that Fauber
    would kill again if spared the death penalty put the issue
    squarely before the jury, and Fauber was entitled to present
    any relevant evidence that could rebut this argument.
    Third, and finally, the State points out that other state and
    federal courts have held that plea offers are not relevant
    mitigating evidence. But only one of those cases addressed
    the argument presented here—that a plea offer is admissible
    to rebut a prosecutor’s claim of future dangerousness. In
    Wright v. Bell, 
    619 F.3d 586
     (6th Cir. 2010), the Sixth
    Circuit rejected this argument, concluding that “nothing in
    the alleged plea offer constitutes relevant evidence that
    Wright would not pose a danger if given a life sentence.” 
    Id. at 601
    . Instead, a plea offer “might indicate only that the
    state believed its important interests in judicial efficiency
    and finality of judgments were sufficient to outweigh any
    potential risk associated with a life sentence, not that those
    risks did not exist.” 
    Id.
     Like the California Supreme Court
    in Fauber’s case, the Sixth Circuit erroneously concluded
    56                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    that a piece of evidence is irrelevant simply because it is
    susceptible to multiple inferences. As discussed above, this
    reasoning is in clear conflict with the expansive definition of
    relevance that the Supreme Court established in McKoy. See
    
    494 U.S. at 440
    .
    In the two other federal circuit court decisions to address
    the admissibility of plea offers under Lockett, the defendants
    argued that the offers demonstrated the prosecutor’s belief
    that their crimes did not deserve the death penalty, but they
    could not offer any more specific reason why the plea offers
    were relevant. See Hitchcock, 745 F.3d at 480; Owens v.
    Guida, 
    549 F.3d 399
    , 420 (6th Cir. 2008). Thus, we should
    not be surprised that the Hitchcock court saw no mitigating
    value in the mere fact that the defendant “would not have
    received a death sentence if only he had accepted the plea
    offer.” 745 F.3d at 482. And even in that case, one judge
    cautioned against overreading the majority opinion. See id.
    at 488 (Wilson, J., concurring in the judgment) (“[E]ven if
    the Majority is correct about the irrelevance of plea
    negotiations in this case, such negotiations may be relevant
    for a host of other reasons that should be evaluated as they
    arise.”). In Owens, the Sixth Circuit relied on the same
    flawed reasoning that appeared in Wright, holding that the
    plea offer was inadmissible because the record did not show
    whether the offer reflected a judgment that the defendant did
    not deserve death or, instead, merely a desire to conserve
    prosecutorial resources. 
    549 F.3d at 420
    .
    The issue of future dangerousness appeared in only two
    of the cited state court decisions, and never in the context of
    a Lockett claim. In one case, the defendant argued that the
    prosecutor’s prediction of future dangerousness amounted to
    misconduct. See Wisehart v. State, 
    693 N.E.2d 23
    , 60 (Ind.
    1998). The other involved a challenge to the evidence
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                       57
    supporting the aggravating circumstance that the defendant
    constituted a continuing threat to society. See Ross v. State,
    
    717 P.2d 117
    , 123 (Okla. Crim. App. 1986). In each case,
    the court’s brief discussion of the plea offer evidence did not
    address whether the offer might have been relevant to rebut
    the prosecutor’s future dangerousness argument. See 
    id. at 122
    ; Wisehart, 693 N.E.2d at 64.
    The majority opinion contends that the exclusion of the
    plea offer evidence was a permissible application of
    California Evidence Code § 352. It suggests that admitting
    the evidence would have required testimony from the
    prosecutor, the defense attorney, and Fauber, and that these
    ancillary proceedings might have confused or misled the
    jury. Maj. op. 41–42.
    I agree with the majority that Lockett does not prevent
    States from applying rules such as California Evidence Code
    § 352 during penalty-phase proceedings, but the majority
    vastly overstates the complications that might have arisen
    from admitting the plea offer evidence in this case. Recall
    that Fauber argued in the state trial court that both the plea
    offer itself and his rejection of it were relevant. Testimony
    from Fauber or his attorney would have been required only
    if the jury needed to know Fauber’s reasons for rejecting the
    offer. The claim at issue in this appeal depends entirely on
    the prosecutor’s decision to make the offer. The only
    additional evidence required would be testimony regarding
    his reasons for making the offer and later seeking the death
    penalty. As discussed further below, the plea offer evidence
    has significant probative value, and the California Supreme
    Court could not reasonably have determined that its value
    was substantially outweighed by the risk of confusion from
    the prosecutor’s limited testimony.
    58                    FAUBER V. DAVIS
    III
    If a petitioner establishes that the state court
    unreasonably applied clearly established federal law, a
    federal habeas court must determine whether the error was
    harmless. When the state court has not considered the
    harmlessness issue, AEDPA’s deferential standard of review
    does not apply. Instead, the petitioner is entitled to relief if
    he can show that the exclusion had a “substantial and
    injurious effect or influence” on the jury’s verdict. Brecht v.
    Abrahamson, 
    507 U.S. 619
    , 623 (1993). Because the
    California Supreme Court found no error in the exclusion of
    the plea offer evidence, it did not consider whether the error
    was harmless. Thus, only the Brecht standard applies to
    Fauber’s claim. I would hold that the exclusion of the plea
    offer had a substantial and injurious effect on the jury’s
    verdict and that Fauber is therefore entitled to relief.
    The prosecutor’s prediction that Fauber would kill again
    likely played a critical role in the jury’s decision to impose
    the death penalty. Empirical research has shown that
    “[f]uture dangerousness appears to be one of the primary
    determinants of capital-sentencing outcomes.” Stephen P.
    Garvey, Aggravation and Mitigation in Capital Cases: What
    Do Jurors Think?, 
    98 Colum. L. Rev. 1538
    , 1559–60 (1998).
    The majority places substantial weight on the other killings
    that the government sought to prove during the penalty
    phase. Maj. op. at 45–46. But those acts of violence—to the
    extent they were in fact proved—were relevant primarily
    because they bore on Fauber’s future dangerousness. The
    prosecutor argued that Fauber had killed three people in as
    many months during the summer of 1986 and, in his closing
    argument, asked the jury to infer that Fauber would do so
    again. The plea offer evidence would have blunted this
    future dangerousness argument by suggesting that the
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                              59
    District Attorney’s office did not believe Fauber actually
    posed so great a risk of future violence.
    At a hearing outside the presence of the jury, the
    prosecutor explained that, at the time he made the offer to
    Fauber, the District Attorney’s office did not have enough
    evidence to convict Buckley and Rowan. The prosecutor
    evidently believed that the benefit of securing Fauber’s
    testimony against his co-conspirators outweighed the risk
    that Fauber would kill again. Presumably, the trial judge
    would have permitted the prosecutor to testify or introduce
    evidence of this calculus, and the jury could have decided
    how much weight to give to the plea offer. The prosecutor,
    at least, believed that the evidence would have damaged his
    case, as he repeatedly told the judge that it was “extremely
    prejudicial.” The prosecutor was particularly concerned
    about appearing to be a hypocrite in front of the jury, and he
    might have decided to avoid making a future dangerousness
    argument altogether. Without that argument, the evidence
    related to the Church murder and the Dowdy disappearance
    loses much of its force. 2
    The remainder of the State’s case in aggravation was far
    from overwhelming. The circumstances of the Urell murder
    did not make Fauber’s case an obvious candidate for the
    2
    Although the majority purports to give the plea offer evidence the
    full mitigating value that Fauber claims, it suggests that introduction of
    the plea offer evidence might have actually harmed Fauber’s case
    because it would have exposed him to damaging cross-examination.
    Maj. op. 42–43. In doing so, the majority conflates the two theories of
    relevance that Fauber put forward before the trial court. This appeal
    involves only the claim that the plea offer itself, rather than Fauber’s
    rejection of it, was relevant admissible evidence. Thus, there would be
    no need for Fauber to testify as to his reasons for rejecting the offer and
    no risk of cross-examination.
    60                       FAUBER V. DAVIS
    death penalty. Fauber’s actions did not risk harming anyone
    other than his intended victim, and the crime, while violent,
    was not especially cruel or heinous. In fact, Urell’s killing
    occupied only 11 transcript pages of the prosecutor’s 64-
    page closing argument during the penalty phase.
    On the other side of the equation, the State and the
    majority acknowledge that Fauber put on a robust case in
    mitigation. Maj. op. at 47–48. His trial counsel called three
    experts and over twenty character witnesses, many of whom
    testified to Fauber’s good character and stated that they
    would stand by him even after his conviction. The majority
    contends that, because this mitigating evidence was so
    persuasive, the plea offer evidence was unlikely to have
    made a difference. The majority has it backwards: The
    strength of Fauber’s case in mitigation supports his argument
    that exclusion of the plea offer evidence was prejudicial. If
    the balance between aggravating and mitigating factors was
    already close in the minds of the jurors, the addition of the
    plea offer evidence was more likely to tip the scales in favor
    of a life sentence. 3
    *    *     *
    The California Supreme Court’s decision affirming the
    exclusion of Fauber’s plea offer evidence during the penalty
    phase involved an unreasonable application of clearly
    established federal law, and the error was not harmless under
    Brecht. Accordingly, I would reverse the district court’s
    3
    In fact, we have direct evidence from the jury that this case was a
    close call. During penalty-phase deliberations, the jurors submitted a
    note asking whether, if the jury hung, the penalty phase would be
    repeated or Fauber would instead receive a sentence of life in prison. At
    the very least, this evidence suggests that the jury was not immediately
    unanimous in its decision to impose the death penalty.
    FAUBER V. DAVIS                      61
    decision in part and grant Fauber’s habeas petition as to his
    death sentence.