Dnc v. Katie Hobbs ( 2020 )


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  •                 FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    THE DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL                  No. 18-15845
    COMMITTEE; DSCC, AKA
    Democratic Senatorial Campaign             D.C. No.
    Committee; THE ARIZONA                  2:16-cv-01065-
    DEMOCRATIC PARTY,                            DLR
    Plaintiffs-Appellants,
    v.                        OPINION
    KATIE HOBBS, in her official
    capacity as Secretary of State of
    Arizona; MARK BRNOVICH, Attorney
    General, in his official capacity as
    Arizona Attorney General,
    Defendants-Appellees,
    THE ARIZONA REPUBLICAN PARTY;
    BILL GATES, Councilman; SUZANNE
    KLAPP, Councilwoman; DEBBIE
    LESKO, Sen.; TONY RIVERO, Rep.,
    Intervenor-Defendants-Appellees.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    Douglas L. Rayes, District Judge, Presiding
    2                         DNC V. HOBBS
    Argued and Submitted En Banc March 27, 2019
    San Francisco, California
    Filed January 27, 2020
    Before: Sidney R. Thomas, Chief Judge, and Diarmuid F.
    O’Scannlain, William A. Fletcher, Marsha S. Berzon*,
    Johnnie B. Rawlinson, Richard R. Clifton, Jay S. Bybee,
    Consuelo M. Callahan, Mary H. Murguia, Paul J. Watford,
    and John B. Owens, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge W. Fletcher;
    Concurrence by Judge Watford;
    Dissent by Judge O’Scannlain;
    Dissent by Judge Bybee
    *
    Judge Berzon was drawn to replace Judge Graber. Judge Berzon has
    read the briefs, reviewed the record, and watched the recording of oral
    argument held on March 27, 2019.
    DNC V. HOBBS                                  3
    SUMMARY**
    Civil Rights
    The en banc court reversed the district court’s judgment
    following a bench trial in favor of defendants, the Arizona
    Secretary of State and Attorney General in their official
    capacities, in an action brought by the Democratic National
    Committee and others challenging, first, Arizona’s policy of
    wholly discarding, rather than counting or partially counting,
    ballots cast in the wrong precinct; and, second, House Bill
    2023, a 2016 statute criminalizing the collection and delivery
    of another person’s ballot.
    Plaintiffs asserted that the out-of-precinct policy (OOP)
    and House Bill (H.B.) 2023 violated Section 2 of the Voting
    Rights Act of 1965 as amended because they adversely and
    disparately affected Arizona’s American Indian, Hispanic,
    and African American citizens. Plaintiffs also asserted that
    H.B. 2023 violated Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and
    the Fifteenth Amendment to the United States Constitution
    because it was enacted with discriminatory intent. Finally,
    plaintiffs asserted that the OOP policy and H.B. 2023 violated
    the First and Fourteenth Amendments because they unduly
    burden minorities’ right to vote.
    The en banc court held that Arizona’s policy of wholly
    discarding, rather than counting or partially counting, OOP
    ballots, and H.B. 2023’s criminalization of the collection of
    another person’s ballot, have a discriminatory impact on
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    4                      DNC V. HOBBS
    American Indian, Hispanic, and African American voters in
    Arizona, in violation of the “results test” of Section 2 of the
    Voting Rights Act. Specifically, the en banc court
    determined that plaintiffs had shown that Arizona’s OOP
    policy and H.B. 2023 imposed a significant disparate burden
    on its American Indian, Hispanic, and African American
    citizens, resulting in the “denial or abridgement of the right
    of its citizens to vote on account of race or color.” 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301(a). Second, plaintiffs had shown that, under the
    “totality of circumstances,” the discriminatory burden
    imposed by the OOP policy and H.B. 2023 was in part caused
    by or linked to “social and historical conditions” that have or
    currently produce “an inequality in the opportunities enjoyed
    by [minority] and white voters to elect their preferred
    representatives” and to participate in the political process.
    Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 47 (1986); 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301(b).
    The en banc court held that H.B. 2023’s criminalization
    of the collection of another person’s ballot was enacted with
    discriminatory intent, in violation of the “intent test” of
    Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act and of the Fifteenth
    Amendment. The en banc court held that the totality of the
    circumstances—Arizona’s long history of race-based voting
    discrimination; the Arizona legislature’s unsuccessful efforts
    to enact less restrictive versions of the same law when
    preclearance was a threat; the false, race-based claims of
    ballot collection fraud used to convince Arizona legislators to
    pass H.B. 2023; the substantial increase in American Indian
    and Hispanic voting attributable to ballot collection that was
    targeted by H.B. 2023; and the degree of racially polarized
    voting in Arizona—cumulatively and unmistakably revealed
    that racial discrimination was a motivating factor in enacting
    H.B. 2023. The en banc court further held that Arizona had
    DNC V. HOBBS                         5
    not carried its burden of showing that H.B. 2023 would have
    been enacted without the motivating factor of racial
    discrimination. The panel declined to reach DNC’s First and
    Fourteenth Amendment claims.
    Concurring, Judge Watford joined the court’s opinion to
    the extent it invalidated Arizona’s out-of-precinct policy and
    H.B. 2023 under the results test. Judge Watford did not join
    the opinion’s discussion of the intent test.
    Dissenting, Judge O’Scannlain, joined by Judges Clifton,
    Bybee and Callahan, stated that the majority drew factual
    inferences that the evidence could not support and misread
    precedent along the way. In so doing, the majority
    impermissibly struck down Arizona’s duly enacted policies
    designed to enforce its precinct-based election system and to
    regulate third-party collection of early ballots.
    Dissenting, Judge Bybee, joined by Judges O’Scannlain,
    Clifton and Callahan, wrote separately to state that in
    considering the totality of the circumstances, which took into
    account long-held, widely adopted measures, Arizona’s time,
    place, and manner rules were well within our American
    democratic-republican tradition.
    6                     DNC V. HOBBS
    COUNSEL
    Bruce V. Spiva (argued), Marc E. Elias, Elisabeth C. Frost,
    Amanda R. Callais, and Alexander G. Tischenko, Perkins
    Coie LLP, Washington, D.C.; Daniel C. Barr and Sarah R.
    Gonski, Perkins Coie LLP, Phoenix, Arizona; Joshua L. Kaul,
    Perkins Coie LLP, Madison, Wisconsin; for Plaintiffs-
    Appellants.
    Andrew G. Pappas (argued), Joseph E. La Rue, Karen J.
    Hartman-Tellez, and Kara M. Karlson, Assistant Attorneys
    General; Dominic E. Draye, Solicitor General; Mark
    Brnovich, Attorney General; Office of the Attorney General,
    Phoenix, Arizona; for Defendants-Appellees.
    Brett W. Johnson (argued) and Colin P. Ahler, Snell &
    Wilmer LLP, Phoenix, Arizona, for Intervenor-Defendants-
    Appellees.
    John M. Gore (argued), Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney
    General; Thomas E. Chandler and Erin H. Flynn, Attorneys;
    Gregory B. Friel, Deputy Assistant Attorney General; Eric S.
    Dreiband, Assistant Attorney General; Department of Justice,
    CRD–Appellate Section, Washington, D.C.; for Amicus
    Curiae United States.
    Kathleen E. Brody, ACLU Foundation of Arizona, Phoenix,
    Arizona; Dale Ho, American Civil Liberties Union
    Foundation, New York, New York; Davin Rosborough and
    Ceridwen Chery, American Civil Liberties Union Foundation,
    Washington, D.C.; for Amici Curiae American Civil Liberties
    Union & American Civil Liberties Union of Arizona.
    DNC V. HOBBS                           7
    OPINION
    W. FLETCHER, Circuit Judge:
    The right to vote is the foundation of our democracy.
    Chief Justice Warren wrote in his autobiography that the
    precursor to one person, one vote, Baker v. Carr, 
    369 U.S. 186
    (1962), was the most important case decided during his
    tenure as Chief Justice—a tenure that included Brown v.
    Board of Education, 
    347 U.S. 483
    (1954). Earl Warren, The
    Memoirs of Earl Warren 306 (1977). Chief Justice Warren
    wrote in Reynolds v. Sims, 
    377 U.S. 533
    , 555 (1964): “The
    right to vote freely for the candidate of one’s choice is of the
    essence of a democratic society, and any restrictions on that
    right strike at the heart of representative government.”
    Justice Black wrote in Wesberry v. Sanders, 
    376 U.S. 1
    , 17
    (1964): “No right is more precious in a free country than that
    of having a voice in the election of those who make the laws
    under which, as good citizens, we must live. Other rights,
    even the most basic, are illusory if the right to vote is
    undermined.”
    For over a century, Arizona has repeatedly targeted its
    American Indian, Hispanic, and African American citizens,
    limiting or eliminating their ability to vote and to participate
    in the political process. In 2016, the Democratic National
    Committee and other Plaintiffs-Appellants (collectively,
    “DNC” or “Plaintiffs”) sued Arizona’s Secretary of State and
    Attorney General in their official capacities (collectively,
    “Arizona”) in federal district court.
    DNC challenged, first, Arizona’s policy of wholly
    discarding, rather than counting or partially counting, ballots
    cast in the wrong precinct (“out-of-precinct” or “OOP”
    8                      DNC V. HOBBS
    policy); and, second, House Bill 2023 (“H.B. 2023”), a 2016
    statute criminalizing the collection and delivery of another
    person’s ballot. DNC contends that the OOP policy and H.B.
    2023 violate Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 as
    amended (“VRA”) because they adversely and disparately
    affect Arizona’s American Indian, Hispanic, and African
    American citizens. DNC also contends that H.B. 2023
    violates Section 2 of the VRA and the Fifteenth Amendment
    to the United States Constitution because it was enacted with
    discriminatory intent. Finally, DNC contends that the OOP
    policy and H.B. 2023 violate the First and Fourteenth
    Amendments because they unduly burden minorities’ right to
    vote.
    Following a ten-day bench trial, the district court found in
    favor of Arizona on all claims. Democratic Nat’l Comm. v.
    Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d 824
    (D. Ariz. 2018) (Reagan). DNC
    appealed, and a divided three-judge panel of our court
    affirmed. Democratic Nat’l Comm. v. Reagan, 
    904 F.3d 686
    (9th Cir. 2018) (DNC). A majority of non-recused active
    judges voted to rehear this case en banc, and we vacated the
    decision of the three-judge panel. Democratic Nat’l Comm.
    v. Reagan, 
    911 F.3d 942
    (9th Cir. 2019).
    We review the district court’s conclusions of law de novo
    and its findings of fact for clear error. Gonzalez v. Arizona,
    
    677 F.3d 383
    , 406 (9th Cir. 2012) (en banc). We may
    “correct errors of law, including those that may infect a so-
    called mixed finding of law and fact, or a finding of fact that
    is predicated on a misunderstanding of the governing rule of
    law.” Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 79 (1986) (internal
    quotation marks omitted); see Smith v. Salt River Project
    Agric. Improvement & Power Dist., 
    109 F.3d 586
    , 591 (9th
    Cir. 1997) (Salt River). We review for clear error the district
    DNC V. HOBBS                           9
    court’s overall finding of vote dilution or vote denial in
    violation of the VRA. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 78
    ; Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 591
    .
    Reviewing the full record, we conclude that the district
    court clearly erred. We reverse the decision of the district
    court. We hold that Arizona’s policy of wholly discarding,
    rather than counting or partially counting, out-of-precinct
    ballots, and H.B. 2023’s criminalization of the collection of
    another person’s ballot, have a discriminatory impact on
    American Indian, Hispanic, and African American voters in
    Arizona, in violation of the “results test” of Section 2 of the
    VRA. We hold, further, that H.B. 2023’s criminalization of
    the collection of another person’s ballot was enacted with
    discriminatory intent, in violation of the “intent test” of
    Section 2 of the VRA and of the Fifteenth Amendment. We
    do not reach DNC’s First and Fourteenth Amendment claims.
    I. Out-of-Precinct Policy and H.B. 2023
    DNC challenges (1) Arizona’s policy of wholly
    discarding, rather than counting or partially counting, ballots
    cast out-of-precinct (“OOP”), and (2) H.B. 2023, a statute
    that, subject to certain exceptions, criminalizes the collection
    of another person’s early ballot. See Ariz. Rev. Stat. §§ 16-
    122, -135, -584; H.B. 2023, 52nd Leg., 2d Reg. Sess. (Ariz.
    2016), codified as Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-1005(H), (I).
    Arizona offers two methods of voting: (1) in-person
    voting at a precinct or vote center either on election day or
    during an early-vote period, or (2) “early voting” whereby the
    voter receives the ballot via mail and either mails back the
    voted ballot or delivers the ballot to a designated drop-off
    10                      DNC V. HOBBS
    location. Arizona’s OOP policy affects in-person voting.
    H.B. 2023 affects early voting.
    We describe in turn Arizona’s OOP policy and H.B. 2023.
    A. Out-of-Precinct Policy
    1. Policy of Entirely Discarding OOP Ballots
    Arizona law permits each county to choose a vote-center
    or a precinct-based system for in-person voting. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 840
    . In counties using the vote-center
    system, registered voters may vote at any polling location in
    the county. 
    Id. In counties
    using the precinct-based system,
    registered voters may vote only at the designated polling
    place in their precinct. Approximately 90 percent of
    Arizona’s population lives in counties using the precinct-
    based system.
    In precinct-based counties, if a voter arrives at a polling
    place and does not appear on the voter rolls for that precinct,
    that voter may cast a provisional ballot. Id.; Ariz. Rev. Stat.
    §§ 16-122, -135, -584. After election day, county election
    officials in close elections review all provisional ballots to
    determine the voter’s identity and address. If, after reviewing
    a provisional ballot, election officials determine that the voter
    voted out of precinct, the county discards the OOP ballot in
    its entirety. In some instances, all of the votes cast by the
    OOP voter will have been cast for candidates and
    propositions for which the voter was legally eligible to vote.
    In other instances, most of the votes cast by the OOP voter
    will have been cast properly, in the sense that the voter was
    eligible to vote on those races, but one or more votes for local
    candidates or propositions will have been cast improperly.
    DNC V. HOBBS                          11
    In both instances, the county discards the OOP ballot in
    its entirety. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 840
    . That is, the
    county discards not only the votes of an OOP voter for the
    few local candidates and propositions for which the OOP
    voter may have been ineligible to vote. The county also
    discards the votes for races for which the OOP voter was
    eligible to vote, including U.S. President, U.S. Senator, and
    (almost always) Member of the U.S. House of
    Representatives; all statewide officers, including Governor,
    and statewide propositions; (usually) all countywide officers
    and propositions; and (often) local candidates and
    propositions.
    2. Comparison with Other States
    The district court found that Arizona “consistently is at or
    near the top of the list of states that collect and reject the
    largest number of provisional ballots each election.” 
    Id. at 856
    (emphasis added). The district court’s finding
    understates the matter. Arizona is consistently at the very top
    of the list by a large margin.
    Dr. Jonathan Rodden, Professor of Political Science and
    Senior Fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford
    University, provided expert reports to the district court. The
    court gave “great weight” to Dr. Rodden’s analysis of the
    “rates and causes of OOP voting” in Arizona. 
    Id. at 835.
    Dr. Rodden reported: “Since 2012, Arizona has clearly
    become the national leader in both provisional ballots cast
    and especially in provisional ballots rejected among in-person
    voters.” Jonathan Rodden, Expert Report (Rodden) at 25.
    Dr. Rodden reported that, from 2006 to 2010, between
    9 to 13 percent of all in-person ballots cast in Arizona were
    12                      DNC V. HOBBS
    provisional ballots. 
    Id. at 24.
    In the 2012 general election,
    more than 22 percent of all in-person ballots cast were
    provisional ballots. 
    Id. In Maricopa
    County, Arizona’s most
    populous county, close to one in three in-person ballots cast
    in 2012 were provisional ballots. 
    Id. at 27–28.
    In the 2014
    midterm election, over 18 percent of in-person ballots cast in
    the State were provisional ballots. 
    Id. at 25.
    These numbers
    place Arizona at the very top of the list of States in collection
    of provisional ballots.
    Arizona also rejects a higher percentage of provisional
    ballots than any other State. The district court found:
    In 2012 alone “[m]ore than one in every five
    [Arizona in-person] voters . . . was asked to
    cast a provisional ballot, and over 33,000 of
    these—more than 5 percent of all in-person
    ballots cast—were rejected. No other state
    rejected a larger share of its in-person ballots
    in 2012.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 856
    (alterations in original)
    (quoting Rodden at 24–25).
    One of the most frequent reasons for rejecting provisional
    ballots in Arizona is that they are cast out-of-precinct. Id.;
    see also Rodden at 26–29. From 2008 to 2016, Arizona
    discarded a total of 38,335 OOP ballots cast by registered
    voters—29,834 ballots during presidential general elections,
    and 8,501 ballots during midterm general elections. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 856
    .
    As the figure below shows, Arizona is an extreme outlier
    in rejecting OOP ballots:
    DNC V. HOBBS                        13
    Rodden at 26. The percentage of rejected OOP votes in
    Arizona is eleven times that in Washington, the State with the
    second-highest percentage.
    The percentage of OOP ballots in Arizona, compared to
    all ballots cast, has declined in recent years. But the
    percentage of in-person ballots cast, compared to all ballots
    cast, has declined even more. See Jonathan Rodden, Rebuttal
    Report (Rodden Rebuttal) at 10. As a result, as a percentage
    14                     DNC V. HOBBS
    of in-person ballots between 2008 and 2014, the percentage
    of OOP ballots has increased.
    3. Reasons for OOP Ballots
    Three key factors leading to OOP ballots are frequent
    changes in polling locations; confusing placement of polling
    locations; and high rates of residential mobility. These
    factors disproportionately affect minority voters. Dr. Rodden
    summarized:
    Voters must invest significant effort in order
    to negotiate a dizzying array of precinct and
    polling place schemes that change from one
    month to the next. Further, Arizona’s
    population is highly mobile and residential
    locations are fluid, especially for minorities,
    young people, and poor voters, which further
    contributes to confusion around voting
    locations.
    Rodden at 2; see also 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 857
    –58
    (discussing these reasons).
    a. Frequent Changes in Polling Locations
    Arizona election officials change voters’ assigned polling
    places with unusual frequency. Maricopa County, which
    includes Phoenix, is a striking example. The district court
    found that between 2006 and 2008, “at least 43 percent of
    polling locations” changed. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 858
    .
    Between 2010 and 2012, approximately 40 percent of polling
    place locations were changed again. 
    Id. These changes
    continued in 2016, “when Maricopa County experimented
    DNC V. HOBBS                         15
    with 60 vote centers for the presidential preference election
    [in March], then reverted to a precinct-based system with
    122 polling locations for the May special election, and then
    implemented over 700 assigned polling places [for] the
    August primary and November general elections.” 
    Id. The OOP
    voting rate was 40 percent higher for voters whose
    polling places were changed. 
    Id. As Chief
    Judge Thomas put
    it, “the paths to polling places in the Phoenix area [are] much
    like the changing stairways at Hogwarts, constantly moving
    and sending everyone to the wrong place.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 732
    (Thomas, C.J., dissenting).
    White voters in Maricopa County are more likely than
    minority voters to have continuity in their polling place
    location. Rodden at 60–61. Dr. Rodden wrote that between
    the February and November elections in 2012, “the rates at
    which African Americans and Hispanics experienced stability
    in their polling places were each about 30 percent lower than
    the rate for whites.” 
    Id. b. Confusing
    Placement of Polling Locations
    Some polling places are located so counterintuitively that
    voters easily make mistakes. In Maricopa and Pima
    Counties, many polling places are located at or near the edge
    of precincts. 
    Id. at 50.
    An example is the polling place for
    precinct 222 in Maricopa County during the 2012 election.
    Dr. Rodden wrote:
    [A] group of 44 voters who were officially
    registered to vote in precinct 222, . . . showed
    up on Election Day at the Desert Star School,
    the polling location for precinct 173. It is
    easy to understand how they might have made
    16                    DNC V. HOBBS
    this mistake. Polling place 173 is the local
    elementary school, and the only polling place
    in the vicinity. It is within easy walking
    distance, and is the polling place for most of
    the neighbors and other parents at the school,
    yet due to a bizarre placement of the [polling
    place at the] Southern border of precinct 222,
    these voters were required to travel
    15 minutes by car (according to [G]oogle
    maps) to vote in polling location 222, passing
    four other polling places along the way.
    
    Id. at 47–48.
                           DNC V. HOBBS                        17
    This map illustrates Dr. Rodden’s point:
    
    Id. at 47.
    In 2012, approximately 25 percent of OOP voters lived
    closer to the polling place where they cast their OOP ballot
    than to their assigned polling place. 
    Id. at 53.
    Voters who
    live more than 1.4 miles from their assigned polling place are
    30 percent more likely to vote OOP than voters who live
    within 0.4 miles of their assigned polling place. 
    Id. at 54.
    American Indian and Hispanic voters live farther from their
    assigned polling places than white voters. 
    Id. at 60.
    18                     DNC V. HOBBS
    American Indian voters are particularly disadvantaged. The
    district court found: “Navajo voters in Northern Apache
    County lack standard addresses, and their precinct
    assignments for state and county elections are based upon
    guesswork, leading to confusion about the voter’s correct
    polling place.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 873
    ; Rodden
    Second at 52–53.
    c. Renters and Residential Mobility
    High percentages of renters and high rates of residential
    mobility correlate with high rates of OOP voting. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 857
    . The district court found that rates of
    OOP voting are “higher in neighborhoods where renters make
    up a larger share of householders.” 
    Id. Between 2000
    and
    2010, almost 70 percent of Arizonans changed their
    residential address, the second highest rate of any State.
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 857
    ; Rodden at 11–12. The
    district court found that “[t]he vast majority of Arizonans
    who moved in the last year moved to another address within
    their current city of residence.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 857
    .
    The need to locate the proper polling place after
    moving—particularly after moving a short distance in an
    urban area—leads to a high percentage of OOP ballots.
    Dr. Rodden wrote:
    An individual who faces a rent increase in one
    apartment complex and moves to another less
    than a mile away might not be aware that she
    has moved into an entirely new precinct—
    indeed, in many cases . . . she may still live
    closest to her old precinct, but may now be
    DNC V. HOBBS                         19
    required to travel further in order to vote in
    her new assigned precinct. Among groups for
    whom residential mobility is common,
    requirements of in-precinct-voting—as well
    as the requirement that they update their
    registration with the state every time that they
    move even a short distance within a
    county—can make it substantially more
    burdensome to participate in elections.
    Rodden at 11.
    The district court found that minority voters in Arizona
    have “disproportionately higher rates of residential mobility.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 872
    . The court found, “OOP
    voting is concentrated in relatively dense precincts that are
    disproportionately populated with renters and those who
    move frequently.          These groups, in turn, are
    disproportionately composed of minorities.” 
    Id. 4. Disparate
    Impact on Minority Voters
    The district court found that Arizona’s policy of wholly
    discarding OOP ballots disproportionately affects minority
    voters. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 871
    . During the general
    election in 2012 in Pima County, compared to white voters,
    the rate of OOP ballots was 123 percent higher for Hispanic
    voters, 47 percent higher for American Indian voters, and
    37 percent higher for African American voters. Rodden
    at 43. During the 2014 and 2016 general elections in Apache,
    Navajo, and Coconino Counties, the vast majority of OOP
    ballots were in areas that are almost entirely American
    Indian. Rodden Rebuttal at 53–54, 58; Jonathan Rodden,
    Second Expert Report (Rodden Second) at 22. In all
    20                      DNC V. HOBBS
    likelihood, the reported numbers underestimate the degree of
    disparity. Dr. Rodden wrote, “[A]lthough the racial
    disparities described . . . are substantial, they should be
    treated as a conservative lower bound on the true differences
    in rates of out-of-precinct voting across groups.” Rodden
    Second at 15 (emphasis in original). The district court found,
    “Dr. Rodden credibly explained that the measurement error
    for Hispanic probabilities leads only to the under-estimation
    of racial disparities.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 838
    .
    Racial disparities in OOP ballots in 2016 “remained just
    as pronounced” as in 2012 and 2014. Rodden Second at 3.
    For example, the rates of OOP ballots in Maricopa County
    “were twice as high for Hispanics, 86 percent higher for
    African Americans, and 73 percent higher for Native
    Americans than for their non-minority counterparts.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 871
    –72; Rodden Second at 29.
    “In Pima County, rates of OOP voting were 150 percent
    higher for Hispanics, 80 percent higher for African
    Americans, and 74 percent higher for Native Americans than
    for non-minorities.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 872
    . “[I]n
    Pima County the overall rate of OOP voting was higher, and
    the racial disparities larger, in 2016 than in 2014.” Id.;
    Rodden Second at 33.
    The district court found:
    Among all counties that reported OOP ballots
    in the 2016 general election, a little over 1 in
    every 100 Hispanic voters, 1 in every 100
    African-American voters, and 1 in every 100
    Native American voters cast an OOP ballot.
    For non-minority voters, the figure was
    around 1 in every 200 voters.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         21
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 872
    . That is, in the 2016 general
    election, as in the two previous elections, American Indians,
    Hispanics, and African Americans voted OOP at twice the
    rate of whites.
    B. H.B. 2023
    1. Early Voting and Ballot Collection
    Arizona has permitted early voting for over 25 years. 
    Id. at 839.
    “In 2007, Arizona implemented permanent no-excuse
    early voting by mail, known as the Permanent Early Voter
    List (“PEVL”).” 
    Id. Under PEVL,
    Arizonans may either
    (a) request an early vote-by-mail ballot on an election-by-
    election basis, or (b) request that they be placed on the
    Permanent Early Voter List. See id.; Ariz. Rev. Stat. §§ 16-
    542, -544. Some counties permit voters to drop their early
    ballots in special drop boxes. All counties permit the return
    of early ballots by mail, or in person at a polling place, vote
    center, or authorized election official’s office. Early voting
    is by far “the most popular method of voting [in Arizona].”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 839
    . Approximately 80 percent
    of all ballots cast in the 2016 general election were early
    ballots. 
    Id. Until the
    passage of H.B. 2023, Arizona did not
    restrict collection and drop-off of voted ballots by third
    parties.
    The district court heard extensive testimony about the
    number of ballots collected and turned in by third parties. 
    Id. at 845.
    A Maricopa County Democratic Party organizer
    testified that during the course of her work for the party she
    personally saw 1,200 to 1,500 early ballots collected and
    turned in by third-party volunteers. These were only a
    portion of the total ballots collected by her organization. The
    22                      DNC V. HOBBS
    organizer testified that during the 2010 election the Maricopa
    County Democratic Party collected hundreds of ballots from
    a heavily Hispanic neighborhood in one state legislative
    district alone. A representative of Citizens for a Better
    Arizona testified that the organization collected
    approximately 9,000 early ballots during the 2012 Maricopa
    County Sheriff’s election. A member of the Arizona
    Democratic Party testified that the party collected “a couple
    thousand ballots” in 2014. 
    Id. A community
    advocate
    testified before the Arizona Senate Elections Committee that
    in one election he collected 4,000 early ballots. 
    Id. A Phoenix
    City Councilmember testified that she and her
    volunteers collected about 1,000 early ballots in an election
    in which she received a total of 8,000 votes.
    2. Minority Voters’ Reliance on Third-Party Ballot
    Collection
    The district court found “that prior to H.B. 2023’s
    enactment minorities generically were more likely than non-
    minorities to return their early ballots with the assistance of
    third parties.” 
    Id. at 870.
    The court recounted: “Helen
    Purcell, who served as the Maricopa County Recorder for
    28 years from 1988 to 2016, observed that ballot collection
    was disproportionately used by Hispanic voters.” 
    Id. Individuals who
    collected ballots in past elections “observed
    that minority voters, especially Hispanics, were more
    interested in utilizing their services.” 
    Id. One ballot
    collector
    testified about what she termed a “case study” demonstrating
    the extent of the disparity. In 2010, she and her fellow
    organizers collected “somewhere south of 50 ballots” in one
    area. The area was later redistricted before the next election
    to add the heavily Hispanic neighborhood of Sunnyslope. In
    DNC V. HOBBS                          23
    2012, the organization “pulled in hundreds of ballots, [with
    the] vast majority from that Sunnyslope area.”
    The district court found that, in contrast, the Republican
    Party has “not significantly engaged in ballot collection as a
    GOTV [Get Out the Vote] strategy.” 
    Id. The base
    of the
    Republican Party in Arizona is white. 
    Id. Individuals who
    engaged in ballot collection in past elections observed that
    voters in predominately white areas “were not as interested in
    ballot collection services.” 
    Id. Minority voters
    rely on third-party ballot collection for
    many reasons. Joseph Larios, a community advocate who has
    collected ballots in past elections, testified that “returning
    early mail ballots presents special challenges for communities
    that lack easy access to outgoing mail services; the elderly,
    homebound, and disabled voters; socioeconomically
    disadvantaged voters who lack reliable transportation; voters
    who have trouble finding time to return mail because they
    work multiple jobs or lack childcare services; and voters who
    are unfamiliar with the voting process and therefore do not
    vote without assistance or tend to miss critical deadlines.” 
    Id. at 847–48
    (summarizing Larios’ testimony). These burdens
    fall disproportionately on Arizona’s minority voters.
    Arizona’s American Indian and Hispanic communities
    frequently encounter mail-related problems that make
    returning early ballots difficult. In urban areas of heavily
    Hispanic counties, many apartment buildings lack outgoing
    mail services. 
    Id. at 869.
    Only 18 percent of American
    Indian registered voters have home mail service. 
    Id. White registered
    voters have home mail service at a rate over
    350 percent higher than their American Indian counterparts.
    
    Id. Basic mail
    security is an additional problem. Several
    24                      DNC V. HOBBS
    witnesses testified that incoming and outgoing mail often go
    missing. 
    Id. The district
    court found that especially in low-
    income communities, frequent mail theft has led to “distrust”
    in the mail service. 
    Id. A lack
    of transportation compounds the issue.
    “Hispanics, Native Americans, and African Americans . . .
    are significantly less likely than non-minorities to own a
    vehicle, more likely to rely upon public transportation, [and]
    more likely to have inflexible work schedules[.]” 
    Id. In San
    Luis—a city that is 98 percent Hispanic—a major highway
    separates almost 13,000 residents from their nearest post
    office. 
    Id. The city
    has no mass transit, a median income of
    $22,000, and many households with no cars. 
    Id. On the
    Navajo Reservation, “most people live in remote
    communities, many communities have little to no vehicle
    access, and there is no home incoming or outgoing mail, only
    post office boxes, sometimes shared by multiple families.”
    
    Id. “[R]esidents of
    sovereign nations often must travel
    45 minutes to 2 hours just to get a mailbox.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 751
    –52 (Thomas, C.J., dissenting). As a result, voting
    “requires the active assistance of friends and neighbors” for
    many American Indians. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 870
    (quoting Rodden Second at 60).
    The adverse impact on minority communities is
    substantial. Without “access to reliable and secure mail
    services” and without reliable transportation, many minority
    voters “prefer instead to give their ballots to a volunteer.” 
    Id. at 869.
    These communities thus end up relying heavily on
    third-party collection of mail-in ballots. Dr. Berman wrote
    with respect to Hispanic voters:
    DNC V. HOBBS                        25
    [T]he practice of collecting ballots, used
    principally in Hispanic areas, ha[s]
    contributed to more votes being cast in those
    places tha[n] would have been cast without
    the practice. . . . That the practice has
    increased minority turnout appears to have
    been agreed upon or assumed by both sides of
    the issue[.] Democrats and Hispanic leaders
    have seen reason to favor it, Republicans have
    not.
    Berman, Expert Reply Report at 8–9. Similarly, LeNora
    Fulton, a member of the Navajo Nation and previous Apache
    County Recorder, testified that it was “standard practice” in
    Apache County and the Nation to vote by relying on non-
    family members with the means to travel. Reagan, 329 F.
    Supp. 3d at 870.
    3. History of H.B. 2023
    Before the passage of H.B. 2023, Arizona already
    criminalized fraud involving possession or collection of
    another person’s ballot. The district court wrote:
    [B]allot tampering, vote buying, or discarding
    someone else’s ballot all were illegal prior to
    the passage of H.B. 2023. Arizona law has
    long provided that any person who knowingly
    collects voted or unvoted ballots and does not
    turn those ballots in to an elections official is
    guilty of a class 5 felony. A.R.S. § 16-1005.
    Further, Arizona has long made all of the
    following class 5 felonies: “knowingly
    mark[ing] a voted or unvoted ballot or ballot
    26                     DNC V. HOBBS
    envelope with the intent to fix an election;”
    “receiv[ing] or agree[ing] to receive any
    consideration in exchange for a voted or
    unvoted ballot;” possessing another’s voted or
    unvoted ballot with intent to sell; “knowingly
    solicit[ing] the collection of voted or unvoted
    ballots by misrepresenting [one’s self] as an
    election official or as an official ballot
    repository or . . . serv[ing] as a ballot drop off
    site, other than those established and staffed
    by election officials;” and “knowingly
    collect[ing] voted or unvoted ballots and . . .
    not turn[ing] those ballots in to an election
    official . . . or any . . . entity permitted by law
    to transmit post.” A.R.S. §§ 16-1005(a)–(f).
    The early voting process also includes a
    number of other safeguards, such as tamper
    evident envelopes and a rigorous voter
    signature verification procedure.
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 854
    (alterations in original)
    (internal record citations omitted).
    There is no evidence of any fraud in the long history of
    third-party ballot collection in Arizona. Despite the extensive
    statutory provisions already criminalizing fraud involving
    possession or collection of another person’s ballot, and
    despite the lack of evidence of any fraud in connection with
    third-party ballot collection, Republican State Senator
    Don Shooter introduced a bill in February 2011. S.B. 1412,
    50th Leg., 1st Reg. Sess. (introduced) (Ariz. 2011),
    http://www.azleg.gov/legtext/50leg/1r/bills/sb1412p.htm.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        27
    Senator Shooter’s bill criminalized non-fraudulent third-
    party ballot collection. The district court had no illusions
    about Senator Shooter’s motivation. It found:
    Due to the high degree of racial polarization
    in his district, Shooter was in part motivated
    by a desire to eliminate what had become an
    effective Democratic GOTV strategy. Indeed,
    Shooter’s 2010 election was close: he won
    with 53 percent of the total vote, receiving
    83 percent of the non-minority vote but only
    20 percent of the Hispanic vote.
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 879
    –80.
    The state legislature amended Senator Shooter’s bill
    several times, watering it down significantly. As finally
    enacted, the bill—included as part of a series of election-
    related changes in Senate Bill 1412 (“S.B. 1412”)—restricted
    the manner in which unrelated third parties could collect
    and turn in more than ten voted ballots. S.B. 1412, 50th Leg.,
    1st Reg. Sess. (engrossed), Sec. 3 at D (Ariz. 2011),
    https://legiscan.com/AZ/text/SB1412/id/233492/Arizona-
    2011-SB1412-Engrossed.html.          If a third-party ballot
    collector turned in more than ten ballots, the collector was
    required to provide photo identification. After each election,
    the Secretary of State was required to compile a statewide
    public report listing ballot collectors’ information. The bill
    did not criminalize any violation of its provisions.
    When S.B. 1412 became law, Arizona was still subject to
    preclearance under the Voting Rights Act. S.B. 1412
    therefore could not go into effect until it was precleared by
    the U.S. Department of Justice (“DOJ”) or a three-judge
    28                     DNC V. HOBBS
    federal district court. On May 18, 2011, the Arizona
    Attorney General submitted S.B. 1412 to DOJ for
    preclearance. Arizona Attorney General Thomas Horne,
    Effect of Shelby County on Withdrawn Preclearance
    Submissions, (August 29, 2013), https://www.azag.gov/opi
    nions/i13-008-r13-013. On June 27, 2011, DOJ precleared all
    provisions of S.B. 1412 except the provision regulating third-
    party ballot collection. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 880
    .
    DOJ sent a letter to Arizona concerning the third-party
    ballot collection provision, stating that the information
    provided with the preclearance request was “insufficient to
    enable [DOJ] to determine that the proposed changes have
    neither the purpose nor will have the effect of denying or
    abridging the right to vote on account of race, color, or
    membership in a language minority group.” 
    Id. at 880–81.
    DOJ requested additional information and stated that it “may
    object” to the proposed change if no response was received
    within sixty days. 
    Id. at 881.
    Instead of responding with the requested information, the
    Arizona Attorney General withdrew the preclearance request
    for the third-party ballot collection provision. 
    Id. The Attorney
    General did so for good reason. According to DOJ
    records, Arizona’s Elections Director, who had helped draft
    the provision, had admitted to DOJ that the provision was
    “targeted at voting practices in predominantly Hispanic
    areas.”
    The state legislature formally repealed the provision after
    receiving the letter from DOJ. Withdrawing a preclearance
    request was not common practice in Arizona. Out of
    773 proposals that Arizona submitted for preclearance over
    DNC V. HOBBS                          29
    almost forty years, the ballot collection provision of S.B.
    1412 was one of only six that Arizona withdrew. 
    Id. Two years
    later, on June 25, 2013, the United States
    Supreme Court decided Shelby County v. Holder, 
    570 U.S. 529
    (2013). The Court declared unconstitutional the formula
    in Section 4(b) of the VRA for determining “covered
    jurisdictions,” thereby eliminating preclearance under Section
    5 for any previously covered jurisdiction, including Arizona.
    On June 19, 2013, Arizona’s Governor had signed a new bill,
    H.B. 2305, which entirely banned partisan ballot collection
    and required non-partisan ballot collectors to complete
    an affidavit stating that they had returned the ballot.
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 881
    ; H.B. 2305, 51st Leg., 1st
    Reg. Sess. (engrossed), at Secs. 3 and 5 (Ariz. 2013),
    https://legiscan.com/AZ/text/HB2305/id/864002. Violation
    of H.B. 2305 was a criminal misdemeanor.
    H.B. 2305 “was passed along nearly straight party lines in
    the waning hours of the legislative session.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 881
    . “Shortly after its enactment, citizen
    groups organized a referendum effort[.]” 
    Id. They “collected
    more than 140,000 signatures”—significantly more than the
    required amount—“to place H.B. 2305 on the ballot for a
    straight up-or-down [statewide] vote” in the next election. 
    Id. Arizona law
    provided that repeal by referendum prevented
    the legislature from enacting future related legislation without
    a supermajority vote. Moreover, any such future legislation
    could only “further[]”—not undercut—“the purposes” of the
    referendum. Ariz. Const. art. IV, pt. 1, § 1(6)(C), (14).
    “Rather than face a referendum, Republican legislators . . .
    repealed their own legislation along party lines.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 881
    . The primary sponsor of H.B. 2305,
    then-State Senator Michele Reagan (a future Secretary of
    30                     DNC V. HOBBS
    State of Arizona and an original defendant in this action),
    “admitted that the legislature’s goal [in repealing H.B. 2305]
    was to break the bill into smaller pieces and reintroduce
    individual provisions ‘a la carte.’” 
    Id. During the
    2015 and 2016 legislative sessions,
    Republican legislators again sought to criminalize ballot
    collection by third parties, culminating in 2016 in the passage
    of H.B. 2023, the measure challenged in this suit. The district
    court found that Republican legislators had two motivations
    for passing H.B. 2023. First, Republican legislators were
    motivated by the “unfounded and often farfetched allegations
    of ballot collection fraud” made by former State Senator
    Shooter—who had introduced the bill to limit third-party
    ballot collection in 2011. 
    Id. at 880
    (finding Shooter’s
    allegations “demonstrably false”). Second, Republican
    legislators were motivated by a “racially-tinged” video
    known as the “LaFaro Video.” 
    Id. The video
    gave proponents of H.B. 2023 their best and
    only “evidence” of voter fraud. During legislative hearings
    on previous bills criminalizing third-party collection, the
    district court wrote, “Republican sponsors and proponents
    [had] expressed beliefs that ballot collection fraud regularly
    was occurring but struggled with the lack of direct evidence
    substantiating those beliefs.” 
    Id. at 876.
    In 2014,
    Republicans’ “perceived ‘evidence’ arrived in the form of a
    racially charged video created by Maricopa County
    Republican Chair A.J. LaFaro . . . and posted on a blog.” 
    Id. The court
    summarized:
    The LaFaro Video showed surveillance
    footage of a man of apparent Hispanic
    heritage appearing to deliver early ballots. It
    DNC V. HOBBS                          31
    also contained a narration of “Innuendos of
    illegality . . . [and] racially tinged and
    inaccurate commentary by . . . LaFaro.”
    LaFaro’s commentary included statements
    that the man was acting to stuff the ballot box;
    that LaFaro did not know if the person was an
    illegal alien, a dreamer, or citizen, but knew
    that he was a thug; and that LaFaro did not
    follow him out to the parking lot to take down
    his tag number because he feared for his life.
    
    Id. (alterations in
    original and internal record citations
    omitted). A voice-over on the video described “ballot
    parties” where people supposedly “gather en mass[e] and give
    their un-voted ballots to operatives of organizations so they
    can not only collect them, but also vote them illegally.” 
    Id. at 876–77.
    The district court found, “The LaFaro Video did not show
    any obviously illegal activity and there is no evidence that the
    allegations in the narration were true.” 
    Id. at 877.
    The video
    “merely shows a man of apparent Hispanic heritage dropping
    off ballots and not obviously violating any law.” 
    Id. The video
    “became quite prominent in the debates over H.B.
    2023.” 
    Id. The court
    wrote:
    The LaFaro video also was posted on
    Facebook and YouTube, shown at Republican
    district meetings, and was incorporated into a
    television advertisement—entitled “Do You
    Need Evidence Terry?”—for Secretary
    Reagan when she ran for Secretary of State.
    In the ad, the LaFaro Video plays after a clip
    of then-Arizona Attorney General Terry
    32                      DNC V. HOBBS
    Goddard stating he would like to see evidence
    that there has been ballot collection fraud.
    While the video is playing, Secretary
    Reagan’s narration indicates that the LaFaro
    Video answers Goddard’s request for
    evidence of fraud.
    
    Id. (internal record
    citations omitted). The court found,
    “Although no direct evidence of ballot collection fraud was
    presented to the legislature or at trial, Shooter’s allegations
    and the LaFaro Video were successful in convincing H.B.
    2023’s proponents that ballot collection presented
    opportunities for fraud that did not exist for in-person
    voting[.]” 
    Id. at 880
    .
    The district court found that H.B. 2023 is no harsher than
    any of the third-party ballot collection bills previously
    introduced in the Arizona legislature. The court found:
    [A]lthough Plaintiffs argue that the legislature
    made H.B. 2023 harsher than previous ballot
    collection bills by imposing felony penalties,
    they ignore that H.B. 2023 in other respects is
    more lenient than its predecessors given its
    broad exceptions for family members,
    household members, and caregivers.
    
    Id. at 881.
    In so finding, the district court clearly erred. Both
    S.B. 1412 and H.B. 2305 were more lenient than H.B. 2023.
    For example, S.B. 1412, which was presented to DOJ for
    preclearance, required a third party collecting more than ten
    voted ballots to provide photo identification. There were no
    other restrictions on third-party ballot collection. There were
    DNC V. HOBBS                          33
    no criminal penalties. By contrast, under H.B. 2023 a third
    party may collect a ballot only if the third party is an official
    engaged in official duties, or is a family member, household
    member, or caregiver of the voter. Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-
    1005(H), (I); 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 839
    –40. A third
    party who violates H.B. 2023 commits a class 5 felony.
    In 2011, the relatively permissive third-party ballot
    collection provision of S.B. 1412 was withdrawn from
    Arizona’s preclearance request when DOJ asked for more
    information. In 2016, in the wake of Shelby County and
    without fear of preclearance scrutiny, Arizona enacted H.B.
    2023.
    II. Section 2 of the VRA
    “Congress enacted the Voting Rights Act of 1965 for the
    broad remedial purpose of ‘rid[ding] the country of racial
    discrimination in voting.’” Chisom v. Roemer, 
    501 U.S. 380
    ,
    403 (1991) (alteration in original) (quoting South Carolina v.
    Katzenbach, 
    383 U.S. 301
    , 315 (1966)). “The Act create[d]
    stringent new remedies for voting discrimination where it
    persists on a pervasive scale, and . . . strengthen[ed] existing
    remedies for pockets of voting discrimination elsewhere in
    the country.” 
    Katzenbach, 383 U.S. at 308
    .
    When Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act was originally
    enacted in 1965, it read:
    SEC. 2. No voting qualification or
    prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice, or
    procedure shall be imposed or applied by any
    State or political subdivision to deny or
    34                     DNC V. HOBBS
    abridge the right of any citizen of the United
    States to vote on account of race or color.
    
    Chisom, 501 U.S. at 391
    (citing 79 Stat. 437). “At the time
    of the passage of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, § 2, unlike
    other provisions of the Act, did not provoke significant debate
    in Congress because it was viewed largely as a restatement of
    the Fifteenth Amendment.” 
    Id. at 392.
    The Fifteenth
    Amendment provides that “[t]he right of citizens of the
    United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the
    United States or by any State on account of race, color, or
    previous condition of servitude,” and it authorizes Congress
    to enforce the provision “by appropriate legislation.” U.S.
    Const. amend. XV. In City of Mobile v. Bolden, 
    446 U.S. 55
    (1980) (plurality), the Supreme Court held that the “coverage
    provided by § 2 was unquestionably coextensive with the
    coverage provided by the Fifteenth Amendment; the
    provision simply elaborated upon the Fifteenth Amendment.”
    
    Chisom, 501 U.S. at 392
    . That is, the Court held that proof of
    intentional discrimination was necessary to establish a
    violation of Section 2. 
    Id. at 393.
    Congress responded to Bolden by amending Section 2,
    striking out “to deny or abridge” and substituting “in a
    manner which results in a denial or abridgement of.” 
    Id. (quoting amended
    Section 2; emphasis added by the Court);
    see also 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 35
    . “Under the amended
    statute, proof of intent [to discriminate] is no longer required
    to prove a § 2 violation.” 
    Chisom, 501 U.S. at 394
    . Rather,
    plaintiffs can now prevail under Section 2 either by
    demonstrating proof of intent to discriminate or “by
    demonstrating that a challenged election practice has resulted
    in the denial or abridgment of the right to vote based on color
    or race.” 
    Id. That is,
    a Section 2 violation can “be
    DNC V. HOBBS                            35
    established by proof of discriminatory results alone.”
    
    Chisom, 501 U.S. at 404
    . The Supreme Court summarized:
    “Congress substantially revised § 2 to make clear that a
    violation could be proved by showing discriminatory effect
    alone and to establish as the relevant legal standard the
    ‘results test.’” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 35
    (emphasis added).
    A violation of Section 2 may now be shown under either
    the results test or the intent test. 
    Id. at 35,
    44. In the sections
    that follow, we analyze Plaintiffs’ challenges under these two
    tests. First, we analyze Arizona’s OOP policy and H.B. 2023
    under the results test. Second, we analyze H.B. 2023 under
    the intent test.
    A. Results Test: OOP Policy and H.B. 2023
    1. The Results Test
    Section 2 of the VRA “‘prohibits all forms of voting
    discrimination’ that lessen opportunity for minority voters.”
    League of Women Voters of N.C. v. North Carolina, 
    769 F.3d 224
    , 238 (4th Cir. 2014) (quoting 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 45
    n.10). As amended in 1982, Section 2 of the VRA provides:
    (a) No voting qualification or prerequisite to
    voting or standard, practice, or procedure
    shall be imposed or applied by any State or
    political subdivision in a manner which
    results in a denial or abridgement of the right
    of any citizen of the United States to vote on
    account of race or color, or in contravention
    of the guarantees set forth in section
    10303(f)(2) of this title, as provided in
    subsection (b).
    36                     DNC V. HOBBS
    (b) A violation of subsection (a) is established
    if, based on the totality of circumstances, it is
    shown that the political processes leading to
    nomination or election in the State or political
    subdivision are not equally open to
    participation by members of a class of citizens
    protected by subsection (a) in that its
    members have less opportunity than other
    members of the electorate to participate in the
    political process and to elect representatives
    of their choice.
    52 U.S.C. § 10301 (emphases added).
    The results test of Section 2 applies in both vote dilution
    and vote denial cases. “Vote dilution claims involve
    challenges to methods of electing representatives—like
    redistricting or at-large districts—as having the effect of
    diminishing minorities’ voting strength.” Ohio State
    Conference of NAACP v. Husted, 
    768 F.3d 524
    , 554 (6th Cir.
    2014), vacated on other grounds, 
    2014 WL 10384647
    (6th
    Cir. 2014). A vote denial claim is generally understood to be
    “any claim that is not a vote dilution claim.” 
    Id. The case
    now before us involves two vote-denial claims.
    The jurisprudence of vote-denial claims is relatively
    underdeveloped in comparison to vote-dilution claims. As
    explained by the Fourth Circuit, “[T]he predominance of vote
    dilution in Section 2 jurisprudence likely stems from the
    effectiveness of the now-defunct Section 5 preclearance
    requirements that stopped would-be vote denial from
    occurring in covered jurisdictions[.]” League of Women
    
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 239
    .
    DNC V. HOBBS                         37
    In evaluating a vote-denial challenge to a “standard,
    practice, or procedure” under the “results test” of Section 2,
    most courts, including our own, engage in a two-step process.
    We first did so, in abbreviated fashion, in Smith v. Salt River
    Project Agricultural Improvement & Power District,
    
    109 F.3d 586
    (9th Cir. 1997). We later did so, at somewhat
    greater length, in Gonzalez v. Arizona, 
    677 F.3d 383
    (9th Cir.
    2012) (en banc). Other circuits have subsequently used a
    version of the two-step analysis. See Veasey v. Abbott,
    
    830 F.3d 216
    , 244–45 (5th Cir. 2016); League of Women
    
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 240
    (4th Cir. 2014); 
    Husted, 768 F.3d at 554
    (6th Cir. 2014). Compare Frank v. Walker, 
    768 F.3d 744
    , 755 (7th Cir. 2014) (“We are skeptical about the second
    of these steps[.]”).
    First, we ask whether the challenged standard, practice or
    procedure results in a disparate burden on members of the
    protected class. That is, we ask whether, “as a result of the
    challenged practice or structure[,] plaintiffs do not have an
    equal opportunity to participate in the political processes and
    to elect candidates of their choice.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 44
    .
    The mere existence—or “bare statistical showing”—of a
    disparate impact on a racial minority, in and of itself, is not
    sufficient. See Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (“[A] bare
    statistical showing of disproportionate impact on a racial
    minority does not satisfy the § 2 ‘results’ inquiry.” (emphasis
    in original)).
    Second, if we find at the first step that the challenged
    practice imposes a disparate burden, we ask whether, under
    the “totality of the circumstances,” there is a relationship
    between the challenged “standard, practice, or procedure,” on
    the one hand, and “social and historical conditions” on the
    other. The purpose of the second step is to evaluate a
    38                      DNC V. HOBBS
    disparate burden in its real-world context rather than in the
    abstract. As stated by the Supreme Court, “The essence of a
    § 2 claim is that a certain electoral law, practice, or structure
    interacts with social and historical conditions to cause an
    inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by [minority] and
    white voters to elect their preferred representatives” or to
    participate in the political process. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ;
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(b). To determine at the second step
    whether there is a legally significant relationship between the
    disparate burden on minority voters and the social and
    historical conditions affecting them, we consider, as
    appropriate, factors such as those laid out in the Senate
    Report accompanying the 1982 amendments to the VRA. 
    Id. at 43
    (“The Senate Report which accompanied the 1982
    amendments elaborates on the nature of § 2 violations and on
    the proof required to establish these violations.”); 
    Veasey, 830 F.3d at 244
    –45.
    The Senate Report provides:
    If as a result of the challenged practice or
    structure plaintiffs do not have an equal
    opportunity to participate in the political
    processes and to elect candidates of their
    choice, there is a violation of this section. To
    establish a violation, plaintiffs could show a
    variety of factors, depending on the kind of
    rule, practice, or procedure called into
    question.
    Typical factors include:
    1. the extent of any history of official
    discrimination in the state or political
    DNC V. HOBBS                        39
    subdivision that touched the right of
    the members of the minority group to
    register, to vote, or otherwise to
    participate in the democratic process;
    2. the extent to which voting in the
    elections of the state or political
    subdivision is racially polarized;
    3. the extent to which the state or
    political subdivision has used
    unusually large election districts,
    majority vote requirements, anti-
    single shot provisions, or other voting
    practices or procedures that may
    enhance the opportunity for
    discrimination against the minority
    group;
    4. if there is a candidate slating
    process, whether the members of the
    minority group have been denied
    access to that process;
    5. the extent to which members of the
    minority group in the state or political
    subdivision bear the effects of
    discrimination in such areas as
    education, employment and health,
    which hinder their ability to
    participate effectively in the political
    process;
    40                     DNC V. HOBBS
    6. whether political campaigns have
    been characterized by overt or subtle
    racial appeals;
    7. the extent to which members of the
    minority group have been elected to
    public office in the jurisdiction.
    Additional factors that in some cases have
    had probative value as part of plaintiffs’
    evidence to establish a violation are:
    [8.] whether there is a significant lack
    of responsiveness on the part of
    elected officials to the particularized
    needs of the members of the minority
    group.
    [9.] whether the policy underlying the
    state or political subdivision’s use of
    such voting qualification, prerequisite
    to voting, or standard, practice or
    procedure is tenuous.
    S. Rep. No. 97-417 (“S. Rep.”), at 28–29 (1982); see 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 36
    –37 (quoting the Senate Report).
    The Senate Committee’s list of “typical factors” is neither
    comprehensive nor exclusive. S. Rep. at 29. “[T]here is no
    requirement that any particular number of factors be proved,
    or that a majority of them point one way or the other.” 
    Id. “[T]he question
    whether the political processes are ‘equally
    open’ depends on a searching practical evaluation of the ‘past
    and present reality.’” 
    Id. at 30.
    An evaluation of the totality
    DNC V. HOBBS                          41
    of circumstances in a Section 2 results claim, including an
    evaluation of appropriate Senate factors, requires “a blend of
    history and an intensely local appraisal[.]” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 78
    (quoting White v. Regester, 
    412 U.S. 755
    , 769–70
    (1973)). The Senate factors are relevant to both vote-denial
    and vote-dilution claims. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 45
    (Senate
    factors will be “pertinent to certain types of § 2 claims,”
    including vote denial claims, but will be “particularly
    [pertinent] to vote dilution claims.”).
    Our sister circuits have struck down standards, practices,
    or procedures in several vote-denial cases after considering
    the Senate factors. In Husted, the Sixth Circuit upheld a
    district court’s finding that an Ohio law limiting early voting
    violated the results test of Section 2. The court wrote,
    We find Senate factors one, three, five, and
    nine particularly relevant to a vote denial
    claim in that they specifically focus on how
    historical or current patterns of discrimination
    “hinder [minorities’] ability to participate
    effectively in the political process.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    (quoting Senate factor five).
    All of the factors, however, can still provide
    helpful background context to minorities’
    overall ability to engage effectively on an
    equal basis with other voters in the political
    process.
    
    Husted, 768 F.3d at 555
    . In Veasey, the Fifth Circuit upheld
    a district court’s finding that Texas’s requirement that a photo
    ID be presented at the time of voting violated the results test.
    
    Veasey, 830 F.3d at 256
    –64 (considering Senate factors one,
    two, five, six, seven, eight, and nine). In League of Women
    42                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Voters, the Fourth Circuit held that the district court had
    clearly erred in finding that the results test had not been
    violated by North Carolina’s elimination of same-day
    registration, and by North Carolina’s practice of wholly
    discarding out-of-precinct ballots. League of Women 
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 245
    –46 (considering Senate factors one, three,
    and nine).
    2. OOP Policy and the Results Test
    Uncontested evidence in the district court established that
    minority voters in Arizona cast OOP ballots at twice the rate
    of white voters. The question is whether the district court
    clearly erred in holding that Arizona’s policy of entirely
    discarding OOP ballots does not violate the “results test” of
    Section 2.
    a. Step One: Disparate Burden
    The question at step one is whether Arizona’s policy of
    entirely discarding OOP ballots results in a disparate burden
    on a protected class. The district court held that Plaintiffs
    failed at step one. The district court clearly erred in so
    holding.
    Extensive and uncontradicted evidence in the district
    court established that American Indian, Hispanic, and African
    American voters are over-represented among OOP voters by
    a ratio of two to one. See Part 
    II(A), supra
    . The district court
    wrote, “Plaintiffs provided quantitative and statistical
    evidence of disparities in OOP voting through the expert
    testimony of Dr. Rodden . . . . Dr. Rodden’s analysis is
    credible and shows that minorities are over-represented
    among the small number of voters casting OOP ballots.”
    DNC V. HOBBS                          43
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 871
    . Dr. Rodden reported that
    this pattern was consistent over time and across counties.
    Based on this evidence, the court found that during the 2016
    general election, American Indian, Hispanic, and African
    American voters were twice as likely as white voters to vote
    out-of-precinct and not have their votes counted. 
    Id. at 872.
    Despite these factual findings, the district court held that
    Arizona’s policy of entirely discarding OOP ballots does not
    impose a disparate burden under the results test. The court
    gave two reasons to support its holding.
    First, the district court discounted the disparate burden on
    the ground that there were relatively few OOP ballots cast in
    relation to the total number of ballots. 
    Id. at 872.
    The district
    court clearly erred in so doing.
    The district court pointed out that the absolute number of
    OOP ballots in Arizona fell between 2012 and 2016. It
    pointed out, further, that as a percentage of all ballots cast,
    OOP ballots fell from 0.47 percent to 0.15 percent during that
    period. 
    Id. The numbers
    and percentages cited by the district
    court are accurate. Standing alone, they may be read to
    suggest that locating the correct precinct for in-person voting
    has become easier and that OOP ballots, as a percentage of
    in-person ballots, have decreased accordingly.
    However, the opposite is true. Arizona’s OOP policy
    applies only to in-person ballots. The proper baseline to
    measure OOP ballots to is thus not all ballots, but all in-
    person ballots. The district court failed to point out that the
    absolute number of all in-person ballots fell more than the
    absolute number of OOP ballots, and that, as a result, as a
    44                     DNC V. HOBBS
    percentage of in-person ballots, OOP ballots increased rather
    than decreased.
    Even putting aside the potentially misleading numbers
    and percentages cited by the district court and focusing only
    on the decline in the absolute number of OOP ballots, the
    court clearly erred. As indicated above, the vote-denial
    category encompasses all cases that are not vote-dilution
    cases. The number of minority voters adversely affected, and
    the mechanism by which they are affected, may vary
    considerably. For example, if a polling place denies an
    individual minority voter her right to vote based on her race
    or color, Section 2 is violated based on that single denial.
    However, a different analysis may be appropriate when a
    facially neutral policy adversely affects a number of minority
    voters. Arizona’s OOP policy is an example. We are willing
    to assume in such a case that more than a de minimis number
    of minority voters must be burdened before a Section 2
    violation based on the results test can be found. Even on that
    assumption, however, we conclude that the number of OOP
    ballots cast in Arizona’s general election in 2016—3,709
    ballots—is hardly de minimis.
    We find support for our conclusion in several places. The
    Department of Justice submitted an amicus brief to our en
    banc panel in support of Arizona. Despite its support for
    Arizona, DOJ specifically disavowed the district court’s
    conclusion that the number of discarded OOP ballots was too
    small to be cognizable under the results test. DOJ wrote:
    [T]he district court’s reasoning was not
    correct to the extent that it suggested that
    plaintiffs’ Section 2 claim would fail solely
    DNC V. HOBBS                         45
    because of the small number of voters
    affected. . . .
    That is not a proper reading of the statute.
    Section 2 prohibits any “standard, practice, or
    procedure” that “results in a denial or
    abridgement of the right of any citizen of the
    United States to vote on account of race or
    color.” 52 U.S.C. 10301(a) (emphasis added);
    see also Frank v. Walker, 
    819 F.3d 384
    , 386
    (7th Cir. 2016) (Frank II) (“The right to vote
    is personal and is not defeated by the fact that
    99% of other people can secure the necessary
    credentials easily.”). Section 2 safeguards a
    personal right to equal participation
    opportunities. A poll worker turning away a
    single voter because of her race plainly results
    in “less opportunity * * * to participate in the
    political process and to elect representatives
    of [her] choice.” 52 U.S.C. 10301(b).
    DOJ Amicus Brief at 28–29. DOJ’s brief appears to treat as
    equivalent the case of an individually targeted single minority
    voter who is denied the right to vote and the case where a
    facially neutral policy affects a single voter. We do not need
    to go so far. We need only point out that in the case before us
    a substantial number of minority voters are disparately
    affected by Arizona’s OOP policy. As long as an adequate
    disparate impact is shown, as it has been shown here, and as
    long as the other prerequisites for finding a Section 2 violate
    are met, each individual in the affected group is protected
    under Section 2.
    46                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Further, in League of Women Voters, “approximately
    3,348 out-of-precinct provisional ballots” cast by African
    American voters would have been discarded under the
    challenged North Carolina 
    law. 769 F.3d at 244
    (quoting the
    district court). The district court had held that this was a
    “minimal” number of votes, and that Section 2 was therefore
    not violated. The Fourth Circuit reversed, characterizing the
    district court’s ruling as a “grave error.” 
    Id. at 241.
    Finally, in the 2000 presidential election, the official
    margin of victory for President George W. Bush in Florida
    was 537 votes. Federal Election Commission, 2000 Official
    Presidential General Election Results (Dec. 2001), available
    at https://transition.fec.gov/pubrec/2000presgeresults.htm. If
    there had been 3,709 additional ballots cast in Florida in
    2000, in which minority voters had outnumbered white voters
    by a ratio of two to one, it is possible that a different
    President would have been elected.
    Second, the district court concluded that Arizona’s policy
    of rejecting OOP ballots does not impose a disparate burden
    on minority voters because Arizona’s policy of entirely
    discarding OOP ballots “is not the cause of the disparities in
    OOP voting.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 872
    . The court
    wrote that Plaintiffs “have not shown that Arizona’s policy to
    not count OOP ballots causes minorities to show up to vote
    at the wrong precinct at rates higher than their non-minority
    counterparts.” 
    Id. at 873.
    Again, the district court clearly
    erred.
    The district court misunderstood what Plaintiffs must
    show. Plaintiffs need not show that Arizona caused them to
    vote out of precinct. Rather, they need only show that the
    result of entirely discarding OOP ballots has an adverse
    DNC V. HOBBS                            47
    disparate impact, by demonstrating “a causal connection
    between the challenged voting practice and a prohibited
    discriminatory result.” Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (emphasis
    added). Here, “[t]he challenged practice—not counting OOP
    ballots—results in ‘a prohibited discriminatory result’; a
    substantially higher percentage of minority votes than white
    votes are discarded.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 736
    (Thomas, C.J.,
    dissenting).
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in holding that
    Arizona’s policy of entirely discarding OOP ballots does not
    result in a disparate burden on minority voters. We
    accordingly hold that Plaintiffs have succeeded at step one of
    the results test.
    b. Step Two: Senate Factors
    The question at step two is whether, under the “totality of
    circumstances,” the disparate burden on minority voters is
    linked to social and historical conditions in Arizona so as “to
    cause an inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by [minority]
    and white voters to elect their preferred representatives” or to
    participate in the political process. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ;
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(b). The district court wrote that because
    in its view Plaintiffs failed at step one, discussion of step two
    was unnecessary. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 873
    . The court
    nonetheless went on to discuss step two and, after considering
    various Senate factors, to hold that Plaintiffs failed at this step
    as well. The district court clearly erred in so holding.
    At step two, we consider relevant Senate factors. Some
    Senate factors are “more important to” vote-denial claims, or
    to some vote-denial claims, and others, “[i]f present, . . . are
    supportive of, but not essential to” the claim. Gingles, 478 at
    48                     DNC V. HOBBS
    48 n.15 (emphasis in original). That is, Senate factors vary in
    importance depending on whether a court is dealing with a
    vote-dilution or a vote-denial case. The same factors may
    also vary in importance from one vote-denial case to another.
    We emphasize that the relative importance of the Senate
    factors varies from case to case. For example, as we will
    describe in a moment, Arizona has a long and unhappy
    history of official discrimination connected to voting. Other
    States may not have such a history, but depending on the
    existence of other Senate factors they may nonetheless be
    found to have violated the results test of Section 2.
    The district court considered seven of the nine Senate
    factors: factor one, the history of official discrimination
    connected to voting; factor two, racially polarized voting
    patterns; factor five, the effects of discrimination in other
    areas on minority groups’ access to voting; factor six, racial
    appeals in political campaigns; factor seven, the number of
    minorities in public office; factor eight, officials’
    responsiveness to the needs of minority groups; and factor
    nine, the tenuousness of the justification for the challenged
    voting practice.
    We analyze below each of these factors, indicating
    whether we agree or disagree with the district court’s analysis
    as to each. Of the various factors, we regard Senate factors
    five (the effects of discrimination in other areas on minorities
    access to voting) and nine (the tenuousness of the justification
    for the challenged voting practices) as particularly important.
    We also regard factor one (history of official discrimination)
    as important, as it bears on the existence of discrimination
    generally and strongly supports our conclusion under factor
    five. Though “not essential,” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15,
    DNC V. HOBBS                        49
    the other factors provide “helpful background context.”
    
    Husted, 768 F.3d at 555
    .
    i. Factor One: History of Official Discrimination
    Connected to Voting
    Arizona has a long history of race-based discrimination
    against its American Indian, Hispanic, and African American
    citizens. Much of that discrimination is directly relevant to
    those citizens’ ability “to register, to vote, or otherwise to
    participate in the democratic process.” 
    Id. We recount
    the
    most salient aspects of that history.
    Dr. David Berman, a Professor Emeritus of Political
    Science at Arizona State University, submitted an expert
    report and testified in the district court. The court found
    Dr. Berman “credible” and gave “great weight to
    Dr. Berman’s opinions.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 834
    .
    The following narrative is largely drawn from Dr. Berman’s
    report and the sources on which he relied.
    (A) Territorial Period
    Arizona’s history of discrimination dates back to 1848,
    when it first became an American political entity as a United
    States territory. “Early territorial politicians acted on the
    belief that it was the ‘manifest destiny’ of the Anglos to
    triumph in Arizona over the earlier Native American and
    Hispanic civilizations.” David Berman, Expert Report
    (Berman) at 4. Dr. Berman wrote that from the 1850s
    through the 1880s there were “blood thirsty efforts by whites
    to either exterminate” Arizona’s existing American Indian
    population or “confine them to reservations.” 
    Id. at 5.
    In
    1871, in the Camp Grant Massacre, white settlers “brutal[ly]
    50                     DNC V. HOBBS
    murder[ed] over 100 Apaches, most of whom were women
    and children.” 
    Id. Arizona’s white
    territorial legislature
    passed a number of discriminatory laws, including anti-
    miscegenation laws forbidding marriage between whites and
    Indians. See James Thomas Tucker et al., Voting Rights in
    Arizona: 1982–2006, 17 S. Cal. Rev. L. & Soc. Just. 283, 283
    n.3 (2008) (Tucker et al., Voting Rights). Dr. Berman wrote:
    “By the late 1880s and the end of th[e] Indian wars, the
    realities of life for Native Americans in Arizona were
    confinement to reservations, a continuous loss of resources
    (water, land, minerals) to settlers, poverty, and pressure to
    abandon their traditional cultures.” Berman at 5.
    White settlers also discriminated against Arizona’s
    Hispanic population. Dr. Berman wrote:
    Although Hispanics in the territory’s early
    period commonly held prominent roles in
    public and political life, as migration
    continued they were overwhelmed by a flood
    of Anglo-American and European
    immigrants.     While a small group of
    Hispanics continued to prosper, . . . most
    Hispanics toiled as laborers who made less
    than Anglos even though they performed the
    same work.
    
    Id. (footnote omitted).
    Hispanics in Arizona “found it
    difficult to receive acceptance or fair treatment in a society
    that had little tolerance for people of Latin American
    extraction, and particularly those whose racial make-up
    included Indian or African blood.” 
    Id. at 5–6
    (quoting Oscar
    J. Martinez, Hispanics in Arizona, in Arizona at Seventy-
    DNC V. HOBBS                         51
    Five: The Next Twenty-Five Years 88–89 (Ariz. State Univ.
    Pub. History Program & the Ariz. Historical Soc’y, 1987)).
    Pursuant to the Treaty of Guadalupe Hidalgo that ended
    the Mexican-American War, the United States conferred
    citizenship on the approximately 100,000 Hispanics living in
    Arizona. In 1909, the Arizona territorial legislature passed a
    statute imposing an English language literacy test as a
    prerequisite to voter registration. 
    Id. at 10.
    The test was
    specifically designed to prevent the territory’s Hispanic
    citizens—who had lower English literacy rates than white
    citizens—from voting. 
    Id. At the
    time, Indians were not
    citizens and were not eligible to vote.
    In 1910, Congress passed a statute authorizing Arizona,
    as a prelude to statehood, to draft a state constitution. Upon
    approval of its constitution by Congress, the President, and
    Arizona voters, Arizona would become a State. 
    Id. at 11.
    Members of Congress viewed Arizona’s literacy test as a
    deliberate effort to disenfranchise its Hispanic voters. 
    Id. The authorizing
    statute specifically provided that Arizona
    could not use its newly adopted literacy test to prevent
    Arizona citizens from voting on a proposed constitution. 
    Id. That same
    year, Arizona convened a constitutional
    convention. 
    Id. at 7.
    Although Congress had ensured that
    Arizona would not use its literacy test to prevent Hispanic
    citizens from voting on the constitution, Hispanics were
    largely excluded from the drafting process. With the
    exception of one Hispanic delegate, all of the delegates to the
    convention were white. 
    Id. By comparison,
    approximately
    one-third of the delegates to the 1910 New Mexico
    constitutional convention were Hispanic, and one-sixth of the
    52                      DNC V. HOBBS
    48 delegates to the 1849 California constitutional convention
    were Hispanic. 
    Id. The influence
    of Hispanic delegates is evident in those
    States’ constitutions.      For example, New Mexico’s
    constitution provides that the “right of any citizen of the state
    to vote, hold office or sit upon juries, shall never be
    restricted, abridged or impaired on account of . . . race,
    language or color, or inability to speak, read or write the
    English or Spanish languages.” N.M. Const. art. VII, § 3
    (1910). It also requires the legislature to provide funds to
    train teachers in Spanish instruction. N.M. Const. art. XII,
    § 8 (1910). California’s constitution required all state laws to
    be published in Spanish as well as English. Cal. Const. art.
    XI, § 21 (1849).
    By contrast, Arizona’s constitution did not include such
    provisions. Indeed, two provisions required precisely the
    opposite. The Arizona constitution provided that public
    schools “shall always be conducted in English” and that
    “[t]he ability to read, write, speak, and understand the English
    language sufficiently well to conduct the duties of the office
    without the aid of an interpreter, shall be a necessary
    qualification for all State officers and members of the State
    Legislature.” Ariz. Const. art. XX, §§ 7, 8 (1910).
    (B) Early Statehood
    (1) Literacy Test
    Arizona became a State in 1912. That same year, the
    Arizona legislature passed a statute reimposing an English
    literacy test—the test that had been imposed by the territorial
    legislature in 1909 and that Congress had forbidden the State
    DNC V. HOBBS                          53
    to use for voting on the state constitution. Berman at 11; see
    also James Thomas Tucker, The Battle Over Bilingual
    Ballots: Language Minorities and Political Access Under the
    Voting Rights Act 20 (Routledge, 2016) (Tucker, Bilingual
    Ballots). According to Dr. Berman, the statute was enacted
    “to limit ‘the ignorant Mexican vote.’” David R. Berman,
    Arizona Politics and Government: The Quest for Autonomy,
    Democracy, and Development 75 (Univ. of Neb. Press, 1998)
    (Berman, Arizona Politics) (quoting letter between prominent
    political leaders); Berman at 12.
    County registrars in Arizona had considerable discretion
    in administering literacy tests. Registrars used that discretion
    to excuse white citizens from the literacy requirement
    altogether, to give white citizens easier versions of the test,
    and to help white citizens pass the test. See also 
    Katzenbach, 383 U.S. at 312
    (describing the same practice with respect to
    African American citizens in southern States). In contrast,
    Hispanic citizens were often required to pass more difficult
    versions of the test, without assistance and without error.
    Berman, Arizona Politics at 75; see also Berman at 12.
    The literacy test was used for the next sixty years. The
    year it was introduced, Hispanic registration declined so
    dramatically that some counties lacked enough voters to
    justify primaries. Berman at 12. One county had recall
    campaigns because enough Hispanic voters had been purged
    from voting rolls to potentially change the electoral result.
    
    Id. Arizona would
    use its literacy test not only against
    Hispanics, but also against African Americans and, once they
    became eligible to vote in 1948, against American Indians.
    The test was finally repealed in 1972, two years after an
    amendment to the Voting Rights Act banned literacy tests
    nationwide. 
    Id. 54 DNC
    V. HOBBS
    (2) Disenfranchisement of American Indians
    In 1912, when Arizona became a State, Indians were not
    citizens of Arizona or of the United States. In 1924,
    Congress passed the Indian Citizenship Act, declaring all
    Indians citizens of the United States and, by extension, of
    their States of residence. Indian Citizenship Act of 1924,
    Pub. L. No. 68-175, 43 Stat. 253 (codified at 8 U.S.C.
    § 1401(b)).
    Indian voting had the potential to change the existing
    white political power structure of Arizona. See Patty
    Ferguson-Bohnee, The History of Indian Voting Rights in
    Arizona: Overcoming Decades of Voter Suppression, 47 Ariz.
    St. L.J. 1099, 1103–04 (2015) (Ferguson-Bohnee). Indians
    comprised over 14 percent of the population in Arizona, the
    second-highest percentage of Indians in any State. 
    Id. at 1102
    n.19, 1104. Potential power shifts were even greater at the
    county level. According to the 1910 Census, Indians
    comprised over 66 percent of the population of Apache
    County, over 50 percent of Navajo County, over 34 percent
    of Pinal County, and over 34 percent of Coconino County.
    
    Id. at 1104.
    Enacted under the Fourteenth and Fifteenth Amendments,
    the Indian Citizenship Act should have given Indians the right
    to vote in Arizona elections. The Attorney General of
    Arizona initially agreed that the Act conferred the right to
    vote, and he suggested in 1924 that precinct boundaries
    should be expanded to include reservations. 
    Id. at 1105.
    However, in the years leading up to the 1928 election,
    Arizona’s Governor, county officials, and other politicians
    sought to prevent Indians from voting. 
    Id. at 1106–08.
    The
    Governor, in particular, was concerned that Indian voter
    DNC V. HOBBS                         55
    registration—specifically, registration of approximately 1,500
    Navajo voters—would hurt his reelection chances. 
    Id. at 1107–08.
    The Governor sought legal opinions on ways to
    exclude Indian voters, 
    id., and was
    advised to “adopt a
    systematic course of challenging Indians at the time of
    election.” 
    Id. at 1108
    (quoting Letter from Samuel L. Pattee
    to George W.P. Hunt, Ariz. Governor (Sept. 22, 1928)).
    County officials challenged individual Indian voter
    registrations. 
    Id. at 1107–08.
    Prior to the 1928 election, two Indian residents of Pima
    County brought suit challenging the county’s rejection of
    their voter registration forms. 
    Id. at 1108
    . The Arizona
    Supreme Court sided with the county. The Arizona
    constitution forbade anyone who was “under guardianship,
    non compos mentis, or insane” from voting. Ariz. Const. art.
    VII, § 2 (1910). The Court held that Indians were “wards of
    the nation,” and were therefore “under guardianship” and not
    eligible to vote. Porter v. Hall, 
    271 P. 411
    , 417, 419 (Ariz.
    1928).
    Arizona barred Indians from voting for the next twenty
    years. According to the 1940 census, Indians comprised over
    11 percent of Arizona’s population. Ferguson-Bohnee
    at 1111. They were the largest minority group in Arizona.
    “One-sixth of all Indians in the country lived in Arizona.” 
    Id. After World
    War II, Arizona’s Indian citizens returned
    from fighting the Axis powers abroad to fight for the right to
    vote at home. Frank Harrison, a World War II veteran and
    member of the Fort McDowell Yavapai Nation, and Harry
    Austin, another member of the Fort McDowell Yavapai
    Nation, filed suit against the State. In 1948, the Arizona
    Supreme Court overturned its prior decision in Porter v. Hall.
    56                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Harrison v. Laveen, 
    196 P.2d 456
    , 463 (Ariz. 1948). Almost
    a quarter century after enactment of the Indian Citizenship
    Act of 1924, Indian citizens in Arizona had the legal right to
    vote.
    (C) The 1950s and 1960s
    For decades thereafter, however, Arizona’s Indian citizens
    often could not exercise that right. The Arizona Supreme
    Court’s decision in Harrison v. Laveen did not result in “a
    large influx” of new voters because Arizona continued to
    deny Indian citizens—as well as Hispanic and African
    American citizens—access to the ballot through other means.
    Berman at 15.
    The biggest obstacle to voter registration was Arizona’s
    English literacy test. In 1948, approximately 80 to 90 percent
    of Indian citizens in Arizona did not speak or read English.
    Tucker et al., Voting Rights at 285; see also Berman at 15. In
    the 1960s, about half the voting-age population of the Navajo
    Nation could not pass the English literacy test. Ferguson-
    Bohnee at 1112 n.88. For Arizona’s Indian—and Hispanic
    and African American—citizens who did speak and read
    English, discriminatory administration of the literacy test by
    county registrars often prevented them from registering. See,
    e.g., Berman, Arizona Politics at 75 (“As recently as the
    1960s, registrars applied the test to reduce the ability of
    blacks, Indians and Hispanics to register to vote.”).
    Voter intimidation during the 1950s and 60s often
    prevented from voting those American Indian, Hispanic, and
    African American citizens who had managed to register.
    According to Dr. Berman:
    DNC V. HOBBS                       57
    During the 1960s, it was . . . clear that
    more than the elimination of the literacy
    test in some areas was going to be
    needed to protect minorities. Intimidation
    of minority-group members—Hispanics,
    African Americans, as well as Native
    Americans—who wished to vote was . . . a
    fact of life in Arizona. Anglos sometimes
    challenged minorities at the polls and asked
    them to read and explain “literacy” cards
    containing quotations from the U.S.
    Constitution. These intimidators hoped to
    frighten or embarrass minorities and
    discourage them from standing in line to vote.
    Vote challenges of this nature were
    undertaken by Republican workers in 1962 in
    South Phoenix, a largely minority Hispanic
    and African-American area. . . . [In addition,]
    [p]eople in the non-Native American
    community, hoping to keep Native Americans
    away from the polls, told them that
    involvement could lead to something
    detrimental, such as increased taxation, a loss
    of reservation lands, and an end to their
    special relationship with the federal
    government.
    Berman at 14–15.
    Intimidation of minority voters continued throughout the
    1960s. For example, in 1964, Arizona Republicans
    undertook voter intimidation efforts throughout Arizona “as
    part of a national effort by the Republican Party called
    ‘Operation Eagle Eye.’” 
    Id. at 14.
    According to one account:
    58                    DNC V. HOBBS
    The approach was simple: to challenge voters,
    especially voters of color, at the polls
    throughout the country on a variety of
    specious pretexts. If the challenge did not
    work outright—that is, if the voter was not
    prevented from casting a ballot (provisional
    ballots were not in widespread use at this
    time)—the challenge would still slow down
    the voting process, create long lines at the
    polls, and likely discourage some voters who
    could not wait or did not want to go through
    the hassle they were seeing other voters
    endure.
    
    Id. (quoting Tova
    Andrea Wang, The Politics of Voter
    Suppression: Defending and Expanding Americans’ Right to
    Vote 44–45 (Cornell Univ. Press, 2012)).
    Compounding the effects of the literacy test and voter
    intimidation, Arizona “cleansed” its voting rolls. In 1970,
    Democrat Raul Castro narrowly lost the election for
    Governor. (He would win the governorship four years later
    to become Arizona’s first and only Hispanic Governor.)
    Castro received 90 percent of the Hispanic vote, but he lost
    the election because of low Hispanic voter turnout.
    Dr. Berman explained:
    [C]ontributing to that low turnout was “a
    decision by the Republican-dominated
    legislature to cleanse the voting rolls and have
    all citizens reregister. This cleansing of the
    rolls erased years of registration drives in
    barrios across the state. It seems certain that
    many Chicanos did not understand that they
    DNC V. HOBBS                          59
    had to reregister, were confused by this
    development, and simply stayed away from
    the polls.”
    
    Id. at 17
    (quoting F. Chris Garcia & Rudolph O. de la Garza,
    The Chicano Political Experience 105 (Duxbury Press,
    1977)).
    (D) Voting Rights Act and Preclearance under Section 5
    Congress passed the Voting Rights Act in 1965. See
    Voting Rights Act of 1965, Pub. L. No. 89-110, 79 Stat.
    437–446 (codified as amended at 52 U.S.C. §§ 10301–10314,
    10501–10508, 10701, 10702). Under Section 4(b) of the Act,
    a State or political subdivision qualified as a “covered
    jurisdiction” if it satisfied two criteria. 
    Id. § 4(b).
    The first
    was that on November 1, 1964—the date of the presidential
    election—the State or political subdivision had maintained a
    “test or device,” such as a literacy test, restricting the
    opportunity to register or vote. The second was either that
    (a) on November 1, 1964, less than 50 percent of the voting-
    age population in the jurisdiction had been registered to vote,
    or (b) less than 50 percent of the voting-age population had
    actually voted in the presidential election of 1964. Seven
    States qualified as covered jurisdictions under this formula:
    Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Louisiana, Mississippi, South
    Carolina, and Virginia. Determination of the Director of the
    Census Pursuant to Section 4(b)(2) of the Voting Rights Act
    of 1965, 30 Fed. Reg. 9897-02 (Aug. 7, 1965). Political
    subdivisions in four additional States—Arizona, Hawai‘i,
    Idaho, and North Carolina—also qualified as covered
    jurisdictions. See id.; Determination of the Director of the
    Census Pursuant to Section 4(b)(2) of the Voting Rights Act
    of 1965, 30 Fed. Reg. 14,505-02 (Nov. 19, 1965).
    60                      DNC V. HOBBS
    Under Section 4(a) of the VRA, covered jurisdictions
    were forbidden for a period of five years from using a “test or
    device,” such as a literacy test, as a prerequisite to register to
    vote, unless a three-judge district court of the District of
    Columbia found that no such test had been used by the
    jurisdiction during the preceding five years for the purpose of
    denying the right to vote on account of race or color. Voting
    Rights Act of 1965, Pub. L. No. 89-110, § 4(a). Under
    Section 5, covered jurisdictions were forbidden from
    changing “any voting qualification or prerequisite to voting,
    or standard, practice, or procedure with respect to voting”
    unless the jurisdiction “precleared” that change, by either
    obtaining approval (a) from a three-judge district court of the
    District of Columbia acknowledging that the proposed change
    “neither has the purpose nor will have the effect of denying
    or abridging the right to vote on account of race or color,” or
    (b) from the Attorney General if a proposed change has been
    submitted to DOJ and the Attorney General has not
    “interposed an objection” within sixty days of the submission.
    
    Id. § 5.
    Three counties in Arizona qualified as “covered
    jurisdictions” under the 1965 Act: Apache, Coconino, and
    Navajo Counties. See Determination of the Director of the
    Census Pursuant to Section 4(b)(2) of the Voting Rights Act
    of 1965, 30 Fed. Reg. 9897-02, 14,505-02. Those counties
    were therefore initially prohibited from using the literacy test
    as a prerequisite to voter registration. All three counties were
    majority American Indian, and there was a history of high use
    of the literacy test and correspondingly low voter turnout.
    Berman at 12. However, in 1966, in a suit brought by the
    counties against the United States, a three-judge district court
    held that there was insufficient proof that a literacy test had
    been used by the counties in a discriminatory fashion during
    DNC V. HOBBS                          61
    the immediately preceding five years. See Apache Cty. v.
    United States, 
    256 F. Supp. 903
    (D.D.C. 1966). The Navajo
    Nation had sought to intervene and present evidence of
    discrimination in the district court, but its motion to intervene
    had been denied. 
    Id. at 906–13.
    Congress renewed and amended the VRA in 1970,
    extending it for another five years. Voting Rights Act of
    1970, Pub. L. No. 91-285, 84 Stat. 314 (1970). Under the
    VRA of 1970, the formula for determining covered
    jurisdictions under Section 4(b) was changed to add the
    presidential election of 1968 to the percentage-of-voters
    criterion. 
    Id. § 4(b).
    As a result, eight out of fourteen
    Arizona counties—including Apache, Navajo, and Coconino
    Counties—qualified as covered jurisdictions. Tucker et al.,
    Voting Rights at 286. Under the 1970 Act, non-covered
    jurisdictions were forbidden from using a “test or device,”
    such as a literacy test, to the same degree as covered
    jurisdictions. The 1970 Act thus effectively imposed a
    nationwide ban on literacy tests. Voting Rights Act of 1970,
    Pub. L. No. 91-285, § 201.
    Arizona immediately challenged the ban. In Oregon v.
    Mitchell, 
    400 U.S. 112
    , 132 (1970), the Court unanimously
    upheld the ban on literacy tests. Justice Black wrote,
    In enacting the literacy test ban . . . [,]
    Congress had before it a long history of the
    discriminatory use of literacy tests to
    disfranchise voters on account of their
    race. . . . Congress . . . had evidence to show
    that voter registration in areas with large
    Spanish-American populations was
    consistently below the state and national
    62                     DNC V. HOBBS
    averages. In Arizona, for example, only two
    counties out of eight with Spanish surname
    populations in excess of 15% showed a voter
    registration equal to the state-wide average.
    Arizona also has a serious problem of
    deficient voter registration among Indians.
    Two years after the Court’s decision, Arizona finally repealed
    its literacy test. Tucker, Bilingual Ballots, at 21.
    In 1975, Congress again renewed and amended the VRA.
    Voting Rights Act of 1975, Pub. L. No. 94-73, 89 Stat. 400
    (1975). Under the VRA of 1975, the formula for determining
    covered jurisdictions under Section 4(b) was updated to add
    the presidential election of 1972. 
    Id. § 202.
    In addition,
    Congress expanded the definition of “test or device” to
    address discrimination against language minority groups. 
    Id. § 203
    (Section 4(f)). Pursuant to this amended formula and
    definition, any jurisdiction where a single language minority
    group (e.g., Spanish speakers who spoke no other language)
    constituted more than 5 percent of eligible voters was subject
    to preclearance under Section 5 if (a) the jurisdiction did not
    offer bilingual election materials during the 1972 presidential
    election, and (b) less than 50 percent of the voting-age
    population was registered to vote, or less than 50 percent of
    the voting-age population actually voted in the 1972
    presidential election. 
    Id. §§ 201–203.
    Every jurisdiction in Arizona failed the new test. As a
    result, the entire State of Arizona became a covered
    jurisdiction. Berman at 20–21.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         63
    (E) Continued Obstacles to Voting: The Example of
    Apache County
    The VRA’s elimination of literacy tests increased political
    participation by Arizona’s American Indian, Hispanic, and
    African American citizens. However, state and county
    officials in Arizona continued to discriminate against
    minority voters. Apache County, which includes a significant
    part of the Navajo Reservation, provides numerous examples
    of which we recount only one.
    In 1976, a school district in Apache County sought to
    avoid integration by holding a special bond election to build
    a new high school in a non-Indian area of the county. See
    Apache Cty. High Sch. Dist. No. 90 v. United States, No. 77-
    1815 (D.D.C. June 12, 1980); see also Tucker et al., Voting
    Rights at 324–26 (discussing the same). Less than a month
    before the election, the school district, a “covered
    jurisdiction” under the VRA, sought preclearance under
    Section 5 for proposed changes in election procedures,
    including closure of nearly half the polling stations on the
    Navajo Reservation. Letter from J. Stanley Pottinger,
    Assistant Attorney Gen., Civil Rights Div., Dep’t of Justice,
    to Joe Purcell, Gust, Rosenfeld, Divelbess & Henderson (Oct.
    4, 1976). DOJ did not complete its review before the
    election. The school district nonetheless held the bond
    election using the proposed changes. After the election, DOJ
    refused to preclear the proposed changes, finding that they
    had a discriminatory purpose or effect. 
    Id. (and subsequent
    letters from Assistant Attorney Gen. Drew S. Days III on
    May 3, 1977, and June 10, 1977). The school district brought
    suit in a three-judge district court, seeking a declaratory
    judgment that the election did not violate the VRA.
    64                      DNC V. HOBBS
    The district court found that “[t]he history of Apache
    County reveals pervasive and systemic violations of Indian
    voting rights.” Apache Cty. High Sch. Dist. No. 90, No. 77-
    1815, at 6. The court found that the school district’s behavior
    was neither “random[]” nor “unconscious[].” 
    Id. at 14–15.
    “Rather, its campaign behavior served to effectuate the
    unwritten but manifest policy of minimizing the effect of the
    Navajos’ franchise, while maximizing the Anglo vote.” 
    Id. at 15.
    (F) United States v. Arizona and Preclearance during the
    1980s and 1990s
    During the following two decades, DOJ refused to
    preclear numerous proposed voting changes in Arizona. See,
    e.g., Goddard v. Babbitt, 
    536 F. Supp. 538
    , 541, 543 (D. Ariz.
    1982) (finding that a state legislative redistricting plan passed
    by the Arizona state legislature “dilut[ed] the San Carlos
    Apache Tribal voting strength and divid[ed] the Apache
    community of interest”); see also Tucker et al., Voting Rights
    at 326–28 (discussing additional examples). In 1988, the
    United States sued Arizona, alleging that the State, as well as
    Apache and Navajo Counties, violated the VRA by
    employing election standards, practices, and procedures that
    denied or abridged the voting rights of Navajo citizens. See
    United States v. Arizona, No. 88-1989 (D. Ariz. May 22,
    1989) (later amended Sept. 27, 1993); see also Tucker et al.,
    Voting Rights at 328–30 (discussing the same). A three-judge
    district court summarized the complaint:
    The challenged practices include alleged
    discriminatory voter registration, absentee
    ballot, and voter registration cancellation
    procedures, and the alleged failure of the
    DNC V. HOBBS                        65
    defendants to implement, as required by
    Section 4(f)(4), effective bilingual election
    procedures, including the effective
    dissemination of election information in
    Navajo and providing for a sufficient number
    of adequately trained bilingual persons to
    serve as translators for Navajo voters needing
    assistance at the polls on election day.
    United States v. Arizona, No. 88-1989, at 1–2.
    Arizona and the counties settled the suit under a Consent
    Decree. 
    Id. at 1–26.
    The Decree required the defendants to
    make extensive changes to their voting practices, including
    the creation of a Navajo Language Election Information
    Program. See 
    id. at 4–23.
    More than a decade later, those
    changes had not been fully implemented. See U.S. Gov’t
    Accountability Office, Department of Justice’s Activities to
    Address Past Election-Related Voting Irregularities 91–92
    (2004), available at http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d04104
    1r.pdf (identifying significant deficiencies and finding that
    implementation of the Navajo Language Election Information
    Program by Apache and Navajo Counties was “inadequate”).
    During the 1980s and 1990s, DOJ issued seventeen
    Section 5 preclearance objections to proposed changes in
    Arizona election procedures, concluding that they had the
    purpose or effect of discriminating against Arizona’s
    American Indian and/or Hispanic voters. See U.S. Dep’t of
    Justice, Voting Determination Letters for Arizona,
    https://www.justice.gov/crt/voting-determination-letters-
    arizona (last updated Aug. 7, 2015). Three of these
    objections were for statewide redistricting plans, one in the
    1980s and two in the 1990s. 
    Id. Other objections
    concerned
    66                      DNC V. HOBBS
    plans for seven of Arizona’s fifteen counties. 
    Id. (objections to
    plans for Apache, Cochise, Coconino, Graham, La Paz,
    Navajo, and Yuma Counties).
    (G) Continuation to the Present Day
    Arizona’s pattern of discrimination against minority
    voters has continued to the present day.
    (1) Practices and Policies
    We highlight two examples of continued discriminatory
    practices and policies. First, as the district court found, the
    manner in which Maricopa County—home to over 60 percent
    of Arizona’s population—administers elections has “been of
    considerable concern to minorities in recent years.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 871
    ; Berman at 20. During the 2016
    presidential primary election, Maricopa County reduced the
    number of polling places by 70 percent, from 200 polling
    places in 2012 to just 60 polling places in 2016. Berman at
    20. The reduction in number, as well as the locations, of the
    polling places had a disparate impact on minority voters.
    Rodden at 61–68. Hispanic voters were “under-served by
    polling places relative to the rest of the metro area,” 
    id. at 62,
    and Hispanic and African American voters were forced to
    travel greater distances to reach polling places than white,
    non-Hispanic voters. 
    Id. at 64–68.
    The reduction in the
    number of polling places “resulted in extremely long lines of
    people waiting to vote—some for five hours—and many
    people leaving the polls, discouraged from voting by the long
    wait.” Berman at 20.
    Second, the district court found that Maricopa County has
    repeatedly misrepresented or mistranslated key information
    DNC V. HOBBS                         67
    in Spanish-language voter materials. Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 875 (“Along with the State’s hostility to bilingual
    education, Maricopa County has sometimes failed to send
    properly translated education[al] materials to its Spanish
    speaking residents, resulting in confusion and distrust from
    Hispanic voters.”); Berman at 20. In 2012, the official
    Spanish-language pamphlet in Maricopa County told
    Spanish-speaking voters that the November 6 election would
    be held on November 8. Berman at 20. The county did not
    make the same mistake in its English-language pamphlet.
    Four years later, Spanish-language ballots in Maricopa
    County provided an incorrect translation of a ballot
    proposition. 
    Id. (2) Voter
    Registration and Turnout
    Voter registration of Arizona’s minority citizens lags
    behind that of white citizens. In November 2016, close to
    75 percent of white citizens were registered to vote in
    Arizona, compared to 57 percent of Hispanic citizens. See
    U.S. Census Bureau, Reported Voting and Registration by
    Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin for November 2016, tbl. 4b.
    Arizona has one of the lowest voter turnout rates in the
    United States. A 2005 study ranked Arizona forty-seventh
    out of the fifty States. See Ariz. State Univ., Morrison Inst.
    for Pub. Policy, How Arizona Compares: Real Numbers and
    Hot Topics 47 (2005) (relying on Census data); see also
    Tucker et al., Voting Rights at 359. In 2012, Arizona ranked
    forty-fourth in turnout for that year’s presidential election.
    Rodden at 19.
    The turnout rate for minority voters is substantially less
    than that for white voters. In 2002, 59.8 percent of registered
    68                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Hispanic voters turned out for the election, compared to
    72.4 percent of total registered voters. Tucker et al., Voting
    Rights at 359–60 (relying on Census data). In the 2012
    presidential election, 39 percent of Arizona’s Hispanic
    voting-age population and 46 percent of Arizona’s African
    American voting-age population turned out for the election,
    compared to 62 percent of Arizona’s white population.
    Rodden at 20–21. The national turnout rate for African
    Americans in that election was 66 percent. 
    Id. In the
    2000
    and 2004 presidential elections, turnout of Arizona’s
    American Indian voters was approximately 23 percentage
    points below the statewide average. Tucker et al., Voting
    Rights at 360.
    (H) District Court’s Assessment of Factor One
    The district court recognized Arizona’s history of
    discrimination, but minimized its significance. Quoting
    Dr. Berman, the court wrote:
    In sum, “[d]iscriminatory action has been
    more pronounced in some periods of state
    history than others . . . [and] each party (not
    just one party) has led the charge in
    discriminating against minorities over the
    years.”     Sometimes, however, partisan
    objectives are the motivating factor in
    decisions to take actions detrimental to the
    voting rights of minorities. “[M]uch of the
    discrimination that has been evidenced may
    well have in fact been the unintended
    consequence of a political culture that simply
    ignores the needs of minorities.” Arizona’s
    DNC V. HOBBS                          69
    recent history is a mixed bag of advancements
    and discriminatory actions.
    
    Id. at 875–76
    (alterations in original).
    The fact that each party in Arizona “has led the charge in
    discriminating against minorities” does not diminish the legal
    significance of that discrimination. Quite the contrary. That
    fact indicates that racial discrimination has long been deeply
    embedded in Arizona’s political institutions and that both
    parties have discriminated when it has served their purposes.
    Further, the “mixed bag of advancements and discriminatory
    actions” in “Arizona’s recent history” does not weigh in
    Arizona’s favor. As Chief Judge Thomas wrote: “Rather,
    despite some advancements, most of which were mandated
    by courts or Congress [through Section 5 preclearance],
    Arizona’s history is marred by discrimination.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 738
    (Thomas, C.J., dissenting). The “history of
    official discrimination” in Arizona and its political
    subdivisions “touch[ing] the right of the members of the
    minority group to register, to vote, or otherwise to participate
    in the democratic process” is long, substantial, and
    unambiguous. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 36
    –37 (quoting S. Rep.
    at 28–29).
    The district court clearly erred in minimizing the strength
    of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    ii. Factor Two: Racially Polarized Voting Patterns
    Voting in Arizona is racially polarized. The district court
    found, “Arizona has a history of racially polarized voting,
    which continues today.” Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 876. In
    recent years, the base of the Republican party in Arizona has
    70                     DNC V. HOBBS
    been white. Putting to one side “landslide” elections, in
    statewide general elections from 2004 to 2014, 59 percent of
    white Arizonans voted for Republican candidates, compared
    with 35 percent of Hispanic voters. The district court found
    that in the 2016 general election, exit polls “demonstrate that
    voting between non-minorities and Hispanics continues to be
    polarized along racial lines.” 
    Id. In the
    most recent
    redistricting cycle, the Arizona Independent Redistricting
    Commission “found that at least one congressional district
    and five legislative districts clearly exhibited racially
    polarized voting.” 
    Id. Voting is
    particularly polarized when Hispanic and white
    candidates compete for the same office. In twelve non-
    landslide district-level elections in 2008 and 2010 between a
    Hispanic Democratic candidate and a white Republican
    candidate, an average of 84 percent of Hispanics, 77 percent
    of American Indians, and 52 percent of African Americans
    voted for the Hispanic candidate compared to an average of
    only 30 percent of white voters.
    The district court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    iii. Factor Five: Effects of Discrimination
    It is undisputed that “members of the minority group[s]”
    in Arizona “bear the effects of discrimination in such areas as
    education, employment and health, which hinder their ability
    to participate effectively in the political process.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    (quoting S. Rep. at 28–29). The district court
    found, “Racial disparities between minorities and non-
    minorities in socioeconomic standing, income, employment,
    education, health, housing, transportation, criminal justice,
    DNC V. HOBBS                        71
    and electoral representation have persisted in Arizona.”
    Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 876.
    The district court made factual findings in four key
    areas—education, poverty and employment, home ownership,
    and health. The district court concluded in each area that the
    effects of discrimination “hinder” minorities’ ability to
    participate effectively in the political process.
    First, the district court wrote:
    From 1912 until the Supreme Court’s decision
    in Brown v. Board of Education, segregated
    education was widespread throughout Arizona
    and sanctioned by both the courts and the state
    legislature. In fact, the Tucson Public Schools
    only recently reached a consent decree with
    the DOJ over its desegregation plan in 2013.
    The practice of segregation also extended
    beyond schools; it was common place to have
    segregated public spaces such as restaurants,
    swimming pools, and theaters. Even where
    schools were not segregated, Arizona enacted
    restrictions on bilingual education. As
    recently as 2000, Arizona banned bilingual
    education with the passage of Proposition
    203.
    Arizona has a record of failing to provide
    adequate funding to teach its non-English
    speaking students. This underfunding has
    taken place despite multiple court orders
    instructing Arizona to develop an adequate
    funding formula for its programs, including a
    72                     DNC V. HOBBS
    2005 order in which Arizona was held in
    contempt of court for refusing to provide
    adequate funding for its educational programs.
    “According to the Education Law Center’s
    latest National Report Card that provided data
    for 2013, Arizona ranked 47th among the
    states in per-student funding for elementary
    and secondary education.”
    
    Id. at 874–75
    (internal citations omitted).
    White Arizonans “remain more likely than Hispanics,
    Native Americans, and African Americans to graduate from
    high school, and are nearly three times more likely to have a
    bachelor’s degree than Hispanics and Native Americans.” 
    Id. at 868.
    “[I]n a recent survey, over 22.4 percent of Hispanics
    and 11.2 percent of Native Americans rated themselves as
    speaking English less than ‘very well,’ as compared to only
    1.2 percent of non-minorities.” 
    Id. The district
    court found
    that, due to “lower levels of [English] literacy and education,
    minority voters are more likely to be unaware of certain
    technical [voting] rules, such as the requirement that early
    ballots be received by the county recorder, rather than merely
    postmarked, by 7:00 p.m. on Election Day.” 
    Id. Second, Hispanics
    and African Americans in Arizona live
    in poverty at nearly two times the rate of whites. American
    Indians live in poverty at three times the rate of whites. 
    Id. “Wages and
    unemployment rates for Hispanics, African
    Americans, and Native Americans consistently have
    exceeded non-minority unemployment rates for the period of
    2010 to 2015.” 
    Id. The district
    court found that minority
    voters are more likely to work multiple jobs, less likely to
    own a car, and more likely to lack reliable access to
    DNC V. HOBBS                         73
    transportation, 
    id. at 869,
    all of which make it more difficult
    to travel to a polling place—or between an incorrect polling
    place and a correct polling place.
    Third, the district court found that “[i]n Arizona,
    68.9 percent of non-minorities own a home, whereas only
    32.3 percent of African Americans, 49 percent of Hispanics,
    and 56.1 percent of Native Americans do so.” 
    Id. at 868.
    Lower rates of homeownership and correspondingly higher
    rates of renting and residential mobility contribute to higher
    rates of OOP voting.
    Fourth, the district court found that “[a]s of 2015,
    Hispanics, Native Americans, and African Americans fared
    worse than non-minorities on a number of key health
    indicators.” 
    Id. at 868–69.
    “Native Americans in particular
    have much higher rates of disability than non-minorities, and
    Arizona counties with large Native American populations
    have much higher rates of residents with ambulatory
    disabilities.” 
    Id. at 869.
    “For example, ‘17 percent of Native
    Americans are disabled in Apache County, 22 percent in
    Navajo County, and 30 percent in Coconino County.’” 
    Id. “Further, ‘11
    percent [of individuals] have ambulatory
    difficulties in Apache County, 13 percent in Navajo County,
    and 12 percent in Coconino County, all of which contain
    significant Native American populations and reservations.’”
    
    Id. (alteration in
    original). Witnesses credibly testified that
    ambulatory disabilities—both alone and combined with
    Arizona’s transportation disparities—make traveling to and
    between polling locations difficult.
    The district court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    74                      DNC V. HOBBS
    iv. Factor Six: Racial Appeals in Political Campaigns
    Arizona’s “political campaigns have been characterized
    by overt [and] subtle racial appeals” throughout its history.
    
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    (quoting S. Rep. at 28–29). The
    district court found that “Arizona’s racially polarized voting
    has resulted in racial appeals in campaigns.” Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 876.
    For example, when Raul Castro, a Hispanic man,
    successfully ran for governor in the 1970s, Castro’s opponent,
    a white man, urged voters to support him instead because “he
    looked like a governor.” 
    Id. “In that
    same election, a
    newspaper published a picture of Fidel Castro with a headline
    that read ‘Running for governor of Arizona.’” 
    Id. In his
    successful 2010 campaign for State Superintendent of Public
    Education, John Huppenthal, a white man running against a
    Hispanic candidate, ran an advertisement in which the
    announcer said that Huppenthal was “one of us,” was
    opposed to bilingual education, and would “stop La Raza,” an
    influential Hispanic civil rights organization. 
    Id. When Maricopa
    County Attorney Andrew Thomas, a white man,
    ran for governor in 2014, he ran an advertisement describing
    himself as “the only candidate who has stopped illegal
    immigration.” 
    Id. The advertisement
    “simultaneously
    show[ed] a Mexican flag with a red strikeout line through it
    superimposed over the outline of Arizona.” 
    Id. Further, “racial
    appeals have been made in the specific context of
    legislative efforts to limit ballot collection.” 
    Id. The district
    court specifically referred to the “racially charged” LaFaro
    Video, falsely depicting a Hispanic man, characterized as a
    “thug,” “acting to stuff the ballot box.” 
    Id. DNC V.
    HOBBS                        75
    The district court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    v. Factor Seven: Number of Minorities in Public Office
    The district court recognized that there has been a racial
    disparity in elected officials but minimized its importance.
    The court wrote, “Notwithstanding racially polarized voting
    and racial appeals, the disparity in the number of minority
    elected officials in Arizona has declined.” 
    Id. at 877.
    Citing
    an expert report by Dr. Donald Critchlow—an expert whose
    opinion the court otherwise afforded “little weight,” 
    id. at 836—the
    court wrote, “Arizona has been recognized for
    improvements in the number of Hispanics and Native
    Americans registering and voting, as well as in the overall
    representation of minority elected officials,” 
    id. at 877.
    As recounted above, it is undisputed that American
    Indian, Hispanic, and African American citizens are under-
    represented in public office in Arizona. Minorities make up
    44 percent of Arizona’s total population, but they hold
    25 percent of Arizona’s elected offices. 
    Id. Minorities hold
    22 percent of state congressional seats and 9 percent of
    judgeships. No American Indian or African American has
    ever been elected to represent Arizona in the United States
    House of Representatives. Only two minorities have been
    elected to statewide office in Arizona since the passage of
    the VRA. Arizona has never elected an American Indian
    candidate to statewide office. No American Indian, Hispanic,
    or African American candidate has ever been elected to serve
    as a United States Senator representing Arizona.
    Arizona’s practice of entirely discarding OOP ballots is
    especially important in statewide and United States Senate
    76                     DNC V. HOBBS
    elections. Some votes for local offices may be improperly
    cast in an OOP ballot, given that the voter has cast the ballot
    in the wrong precinct. But no vote for statewide office or for
    the United States Senate is ever improperly cast in an OOP
    ballot. Arizona’s practice of wholly discarding OOP ballots
    thus has the effect of disproportionately undercounting
    minority votes, by a factor of two to one, precisely where the
    problem of under-representation in Arizona is most acute.
    The district court clearly erred in minimizing the strength
    of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    vi. Factor Eight: Officials’ Responsiveness to the Needs
    of Minority Groups
    The district court found that “Plaintiffs’ evidence . . . is
    insufficient to establish a lack of responsiveness on the part
    of elected officials to particularized needs of minority
    groups.” 
    Id. In support
    of its finding, the court cited the
    activity of one organization, the Arizona Citizens Clean
    Elections Commission, which “engages in outreach to various
    communities, including the Hispanic and Native American
    communities, to increase voter participation” and “develops
    an annual voter education plan in consultation with elections
    officials and stakeholders,” and whose current Chairman is an
    enrolled member of the San Carlos Apache Tribe. 
    Id. The district
    court’s finding ignores extensive undisputed
    evidence showing that Arizona has significantly underserved
    its minority population. “Arizona was the last state in the
    nation to join the Children’s Health Insurance Program,
    which may explain, in part, why forty-six states have better
    health insurance coverage for children.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 740
    (Thomas, C.J., dissenting). Further, “Arizona’s public
    DNC V. HOBBS                          77
    schools are drastically underfunded; in fact, in 2016 Arizona
    ranked 50th among the states and the District of Columbia in
    per pupil spending on public elementary and secondary
    education.” 
    Id. “Given the
    well-documented evidence that
    minorities are likelier to depend on public services[,] . . .
    Arizona’s refusal to provide adequate state services
    demonstrates its nonresponsiveness to minority needs.” Id.;
    cf. Myers v. United States, 
    652 F.3d 1021
    , 1036 (9th Cir.
    2011) (holding that the district court clearly erred when it
    ignored evidence contradicting its findings).
    Further, the district court’s finding is contradicted
    elsewhere in its own opinion. Earlier in its opinion, the court
    had written that Arizona has a “political culture that simply
    ignores the needs of minorities.” 
    Id. at 876
    (citation omitted).
    Later in its opinion, the court referred to “Arizona’s history
    of advancing partisan objectives with the unintended
    consequence of ignoring minority interests.” 
    Id. at 882.
    The district court clearly erred in finding that this factor
    does not weigh in Plaintiffs’s favor.
    vii. Factor Nine: Tenuousness of Justification of the
    Policy Underlying the Challenged Restriction
    The ninth Senate factor is “whether the policy underlying
    the state or political subdivision’s use of such voting
    qualification, prerequisite to voting, or standard, practice or
    procedure is tenuous.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    (quoting
    S. Rep. at 28). The district court found that Arizona’s policy
    of entirely discarding OOP ballots is justified by the
    importance of Arizona’s precinct-based system of elections.
    The court held:
    78                      DNC V. HOBBS
    Precinct-based voting helps Arizona
    counties estimate the number of voters who
    may be expected at any particular precinct,
    allows for better allocation of resources and
    personnel, improves orderly administration of
    elections, and reduces wait times. The
    precinct-based system also ensures that each
    voter receives a ballot reflecting only the
    races for which that person is entitled to vote,
    thereby promoting voting for local candidates
    and issues and making ballots less confusing.
    Arizona’s policy to not count OOP ballots is
    one mechanism by which it strictly enforces
    this system to ensure that precinct-based
    counties maximize the system’s benefits.
    This justification is not tenuous.
    Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 878.
    The court misunderstood the nature of Plaintiffs’
    challenge. Plaintiffs do not challenge Arizona’s precinct-
    based system of voting. Indeed, their challenge assumes both
    its importance and its continued existence. Rather, their
    challenge is to Arizona’s policy, within that system, of
    entirely discarding OOP ballots. The question before the
    district court was not the justification for Arizona’s precinct-
    based system. The question, rather, was the justification for
    Arizona’s policy of entirely discarding OOP ballots.
    There is no finding by the district court that would justify,
    on any ground, Arizona’s policy of entirely discarding OOP
    ballots. There is no finding that counting or partially
    counting OOP ballots would threaten the integrity of
    Arizona’s precinct-based system. Nor is there a finding that
    DNC V. HOBBS                           79
    Arizona has ever sought to minimize the number of OOP
    ballots. The lack of such findings is not surprising given the
    extreme disparity between OOP voting in Arizona and such
    voting in other states, as well as Arizona’s role in causing
    voters to vote OOP by, for example, frequently changing the
    location of polling places.
    The only plausible justification for Arizona’s OOP policy
    would be the delay and expense entailed in counting OOP
    ballots, but in its discussion of the Senate factors, the district
    court never mentioned this justification. Indeed, the district
    court specifically found that “[c]ounting OOP ballots is
    administratively feasible.” 
    Id. at 860.
    Twenty States, including Arizona’s neighboring States of
    California, Utah, and New Mexico, count OOP ballots. Id.;
    Cal. Elec. Code §§ 14310(a)(3), 14310(c)(3), 15350; Utah
    Code Ann. § 20A-4-107(1)(b)(iii), 2(a)(ii), 2(c); N.M. Stat.
    Ann § 1-12-25.4(F); N.M. Admin. Code 1.10.22.9(N). The
    district court wrote: “Elections administrators in these and
    other states have established processes for counting only the
    offices for which the OOP voter is eligible to vote.” Reagan,
    
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 861. “Some states, such as New Mexico,
    use a hand tally procedure, whereby a team of elections
    workers reviews each OOP ballot, determines the precinct in
    which the voter was qualified to vote, and marks on a tally
    sheet for that precinct the votes cast for each eligible office.”
    Id.; see N.M. Admin Code 1.10.22.9(H)–(N). “Other states,
    such as California, use a duplication method, whereby a team
    of elections workers reviews each OOP ballot, determines the
    precinct in which the voter was qualified to vote, obtains a
    new paper ballot for the correct precinct, and duplicates the
    votes cast on the OOP ballot onto the ballot for the correct
    precinct.” Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 861. “Only the offices
    80                      DNC V. HOBBS
    that appear on both the OOP ballot and the ballot for the
    correct precinct are copied. The duplicated ballot then is
    scanned through the optical scan voting machine and
    electronically tallied.” 
    Id. Arizona already
    uses a duplication system, similar to that
    used in California, for provisional ballots cast by voters
    eligible to vote in federal but not state elections, as well as for
    damaged or mismarked ballots that cannot be read by an
    optical scanner. 
    Id. The district
    court briefly discussed the
    time that might be required to count or partially count OOP
    ballots, but it did not connect its discussion to its
    consideration of the Senate factors. The court cited testimony
    of a Pima County election official that the county’s
    duplication procedure “takes about twenty minutes per
    ballot.” 
    Id. The court
    did not mention that this same official
    had stated in his declaration that the procedure instead takes
    fifteen minutes per ballot. The court also did not mention
    that a California election official had testified that it takes a
    very short time to count or partially count the valid votes on
    an OOP ballot. That official testified that it takes “several
    minutes” in California to confirm the voter’s registration—
    which is done for all provisional ballots, in Arizona as well as
    in California. Once that is done, the official testified, it takes
    one to three minutes to duplicate the ballot.
    The district court clearly erred in finding that this factor
    does not weigh in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    viii. Assessment of Senate Factors
    The district court’s “overall assessment” of the Senate
    factors was: “In sum, of the germane Senate Factors, the
    Court finds that some are present in Arizona and others are
    DNC V. HOBBS                          81
    not.” 
    Id. at 878.
    Based on this assessment, the court held that
    Plaintiffs had not carried their burden at step two. The
    district court clearly erred in so holding. The district court
    clearly erred in minimizing the strength in favor of Plaintiffs
    of Senate factors one (official history of discrimination) and
    seven (number of minorities in public office). Further, the
    district court clearly erred in finding that Senate factors eight
    (officials’ responsiveness to the needs of minority groups)
    and nine (tenuousness of the justification of the policy
    underlying the challenged provision) do not favor Plaintiffs.
    Plaintiffs have successfully shown that all of the considered
    Senate factors weigh in their favor. Most important, plaintiffs
    have shown that the most pertinent factors, five and nine,
    weigh very strongly in their favor.
    c. Summary
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in holding that
    Plaintiffs’ challenge to Arizona’s OOP policy failed under the
    results test. We hold that Plaintiffs have carried their burden
    at both steps one and two. First, they have shown that
    Arizona’s OOP policy imposes a significant disparate burden
    on its American Indian, Hispanic, and African American
    citizens, resulting in the “denial or abridgement of the right”
    of its citizens to vote “on account of race or color.”
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(a). Second, they have shown that, under
    the “totality of circumstances,” the discriminatory burden
    imposed by the OOP policy is in part caused by or linked to
    “social and historical conditions” that have or currently
    produce “an inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by
    [minority] and white voters to elect their preferred
    representatives” and to participate in the political process.
    
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ; 52 U.S.C. § 10301(b).
    82                     DNC V. HOBBS
    We therefore hold that Arizona’s OOP policy violates the
    results test of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
    3. H.B. 2023 and the Results Test
    Uncontested evidence in the district court established that,
    prior to the enactment of H.B. 2023, a large and
    disproportionate number of minority voters relied on third
    parties to collect and deliver their early ballots. Uncontested
    evidence also established that, beginning in 2011, Arizona
    Republicans made sustained efforts to limit or eliminate
    third-party ballot collection. The question is whether the
    district court clearly erred in holding that H.B. 2023 does not
    violate the “results test” of Section 2.
    a. Step One: Disparate Burden
    The question at step one is whether H.B. 2023 results in
    a disparate burden on a protected class. The district court
    held that Plaintiffs failed at step one. The district court
    clearly erred in so holding.
    Extensive and uncontradicted evidence established that
    prior to the enactment of H.B. 2023, third parties collected a
    large and disproportionate number of early ballots from
    minority voters. Neither the quantity nor the disproportion
    was disputed.      Numerous witnesses testified without
    contradiction to having personally collected, or to having
    personally witnessed the collection of, thousands of early
    ballots from minority voters. There is no evidence that white
    voters relied to any significant extent on ballot collection by
    third parties.
    DNC V. HOBBS                          83
    The district court recognized the disparity in third-party
    ballot collection between minority and white citizens. It
    wrote that “[t]he Democratic Party and community advocacy
    organizations . . . focused their ballot collection efforts on
    low-efficacy voters, who trend disproportionately minority.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 870
    . “In contrast,” the court
    wrote, “the Republican Party has not significantly engaged in
    ballot collection as a GOTV strategy.” 
    Id. The district
    court nonetheless held that this evidence was
    insufficient to establish a violation at step one. To justify its
    holding, the court wrote, “[T]he Court finds that Plaintiffs’
    circumstantial and anecdotal evidence is insufficient to
    establish a cognizable disparity under § 2.” 
    Id. at 868.
    The
    court wrote further:
    Considering the vast majority of Arizonans,
    minority and non-minority alike, vote without
    the assistance of third-parties who would not
    fall within H.B. 2023’s exceptions, it is
    unlikely that H.B. 2023’s limitations on who
    may collect an early ballot cause a meaningful
    inequality in the electoral opportunities of
    minorities as compared to non-minorities.
    
    Id. at 871.
    First, the court clearly erred in discounting the evidence
    of third-party ballot collection as merely “circumstantial and
    anecdotal.” The evidence of third-party ballot collection was
    not “circumstantial.” Rather, as recounted above, it was
    direct evidence from witnesses who had themselves acted as
    third-party ballot collectors, had personally supervised third-
    party ballot collection, or had personally witnessed third-
    84                      DNC V. HOBBS
    party ballot collection by others. Nor was the evidence
    merely “anecdotal.”        As recounted above, numerous
    witnesses provided consistent and uncontradicted testimony
    about third-party ballot collection they had done, supervised,
    or witnessed. This evidence established that many thousands
    of early ballots were collected from minority voters by third
    parties. The court itself found that white voters did not
    significantly rely on third-party ballot collection. No better
    evidence was required to establish that large and
    disproportionate numbers of early ballots were collected from
    minority voters.
    Second, the court clearly erred by comparing the number
    of early ballots collected from minority voters to the much
    greater number of all ballots cast “without the assistance of
    third parties,” and then holding that the relatively smaller
    number of collected early ballots did not cause a “meaningful
    inequality.” 
    Id. at 871.
    In so holding, the court repeated the
    clear error it made in comparing the number of OOP ballots
    to the total number of all ballots cast. Just as for OOP ballots,
    the number of ballots collected by third parties from minority
    voters surpasses any de minimis number.
    We hold that H.B. 2023 results in a disparate burden on
    minority voters, and that the district court clearly erred in
    holding otherwise. We accordingly hold that Plaintiffs have
    succeeded at step one of the results test.
    b. Step Two: Senate Factors
    The district court did not differentiate between Arizona’s
    OOP policy and H.B. 2023 in its discussion of step two.
    Much of our analysis of the Senate factors for Arizona’s OOP
    policy applies with equal force to the factors for H.B. 2023.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        85
    Again, we regard Senate factors five (the effects of
    discrimination in other areas on minorities access to voting)
    and nine (the tenuousness of the justification for the
    challenged voting practices) as particularly important, given
    the nature of Plaintiffs’ challenge to H.B. 2023. We also
    regard factor one (history of official discrimination) as
    important, as it strongly supports our conclusion under factor
    five. Though “not essential,” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15,
    the other less important factors provide “helpful background
    context.” 
    Husted, 768 F.3d at 555
    .
    We do not repeat here the entirety of our analysis of
    Arizona’s OOP policy. Rather, we incorporate that analysis
    by reference and discuss only the manner in which the
    analysis is different for H.B. 2023.
    i. Factor One: History of Official Discrimination
    Connected to Voting
    We recounted above Arizona’s long history of race-based
    discrimination in voting. H.B. 2023 grows directly out of that
    history. During the Republicans’ 2011 attempt to limit ballot
    collection by third parties, Arizona was still subject to
    preclearance under Section 5. When DOJ asked for more
    information about whether the relatively innocuous ballot-
    collection provision of S.B. 1412 had the purpose or would
    have the effect of denying minorities the right to vote and
    requested more information, Arizona withdrew the
    preclearance request. It did so because there was evidence in
    the record that the provision intentionally targeted Hispanic
    voters. In 2013, public opposition threatened to repeal H.B.
    2305 by referendum. If passed, the referendum would have
    required that any future bill on the same topic pass the
    legislature by a supermajority. Republicans repealed H.B.
    86                      DNC V. HOBBS
    2305 rather than face a referendum. Finally, after the
    Supreme Court’s decision in Shelby County eliminated
    preclearance, Arizona enacted H.B. 2023, making third-party
    ballot collection a felony. The campaign was marked by
    race-based appeals, most prominently in the LaFaro Video
    described above.
    As it did with respect to OOP voting, the district court
    clearly erred in minimizing the strength of this factor in
    Plaintiffs’ favor.
    ii. Factor Two: Racially Polarized Voting Patterns
    H.B. 2023 connects directly to racially polarized voting
    patterns in Arizona. The district court found that “H.B. 2023
    emerged in the context of racially polarized voting.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 879
    . Senator Shooter, who introduced the
    bill that became S.B. 1412—the predecessor to H.B. 2023—
    was motivated by the “high degree of racial polarization in
    his district” and introduced the bill following a close, racially
    polarized election. 
    Id. The district
    court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    iii. Factor Five: Effects of Discrimination
    H.B. 2023 is closely linked to the effects of
    discrimination that “hinder” the ability of American Indian,
    Hispanic, and African American voters “to participate
    effectively in the political process.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    .
    The district court found that American Indian, Hispanic, and
    African American Arizonans “are significantly less likely
    than non-minorities to own a vehicle, more likely to rely upon
    DNC V. HOBBS                          87
    public transportation, more likely to have inflexible work
    schedules, and more likely to rely on income from hourly
    wage jobs.” Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 869. In addition,
    “[r]eady access to reliable and secure mail service is
    nonexistent in some minority communities.” 
    Id. Minority voters
    in rural communities disproportionately lack access to
    outgoing mail, while minority voters in urban communities
    frequently encounter unsecure mailboxes and mail theft. 
    Id. These effects
    of discrimination hinder American Indian,
    Hispanic, and African American voters’ ability to return early
    ballots without the assistance of third-party ballot collection.
    The district court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    iv. Factor Six: Racial Appeals in Political Campaigns
    The enactment of H.B. 2023 was the direct result of racial
    appeals in a political campaign. The district court found that
    “racial appeals [were] made in the specific context of
    legislative efforts to limit ballot collection.” 
    Id. at 876.
    Proponents of H.B. 2023 relied on “overt or subtle racial
    appeals,” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 37
    , in advocating for H.B.
    2023, including the “racially tinged” LaFaro Video, Reagan,
    
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 876–77 (characterizing the LaFaro Video
    as one of the primary motivators for H.B. 2023). The district
    court concluded, “[Senator] Shooter’s allegations and the
    LaFaro video were successful in convincing H.B. 2023’s
    proponents that ballot collection presented opportunities for
    fraud that did not exist for in-person voting.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 880
    .
    The district court did not clearly err in assessing the
    strength of this factor in Plaintiff’s favor.
    88                     DNC V. HOBBS
    v. Factor Seven: Number of Minorities in Public Office
    Because Arizona’s OOP policy had a particular
    connection to the election of minorities to statewide office
    and to the United States Senate, we concluded that the factor
    of minorities in public office favored Plaintiffs. That
    particular connection to statewide office does not exist
    between H.B. 2023 and election of minorities. However,
    H.B. 2023 is likely to have a pronounced effect in rural
    counties with significant American Indian and Hispanic
    populations who disproportionately lack reliable mail and
    transportation services, and where a smaller number of votes
    can have a significant impact on election outcomes. In those
    counties, there is likely to be a particular connection to
    election of American Indian and Hispanic candidates to
    public office.
    As it did with respect to OOP voting, the district court
    clearly erred in minimizing the strength of this factor in
    Plaintiffs’ favor.
    vi. Factor Eight: Officials’ Responsiveness to the Needs
    of Minority Groups
    The district court found that “Plaintiffs’ evidence . . . is
    insufficient to establish a lack of responsiveness on the part
    of elected officials to particularized needs of minority
    groups.” 
    Id. at 877.
    As discussed above, this finding ignores
    extensive evidence to the contrary and is contradicted by the
    court’s statements elsewhere in its opinion.
    The district court clearly erred in finding that this factor
    does not weigh in Plaintiffs’ favor.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         89
    vii. Factor Nine: Tenuousness of Justification of the
    Policy Underlying the Challenged Restriction
    The district court relied on two justifications for H.B.
    2023: That H.B. 2023 is aimed at preventing ballot fraud “by
    creating a chain of custody for early ballots and minimizing
    the opportunities for ballot tampering, loss, and destruction”;
    and that H.B. 2023 is aimed at improving and maintaining
    “public confidence in election integrity.” 
    Id. at 852.
    We
    address these justifications in turn.
    First, third-party ballot collection was permitted for many
    years in Arizona before the passage of H.B. 2023. No one
    has ever found a case of voter fraud connected to third-party
    ballot collection in Arizona. This has not been for want of
    trying. The district court described the Republicans’
    unsuccessful attempts to find instances of fraud:
    The Republican National Lawyers
    Association (“RNLA”) performed a study
    dedicated to uncovering cases of voter fraud
    between 2000 and 2011. The study found no
    evidence of ballot collection or delivery fraud,
    nor did a follow-up study through May 2015.
    Although the RNLA reported instances of
    absentee ballot fraud, none were tied to ballot
    collection and delivery.        Likewise, the
    Arizona Republic conducted a study of voter
    fraud in Maricopa County and determined
    that, out of millions of ballots cast in
    Maricopa County from 2005 to 2013, a total
    of 34 cases of fraud were prosecuted. Of
    these, 18 involved a felon voting without her
    rights first being restored. Fourteen involved
    90                      DNC V. HOBBS
    non-Arizona citizens voting. The study
    uncovered no cases of fraud perpetrated
    through ballot collection.
    
    Id. at 853
    (internal citations omitted).
    The district court wrote, “[T]here has never been a case
    of voter fraud associated with ballot collection charged in
    Arizona.” 
    Id. at 852.
    “No specific, concrete example of
    voter fraud perpetrated through ballot collection was
    presented by or to the Arizona legislature during the debates
    on H.B. 2023 or its predecessor bills.” 
    Id. at 852–53.
    “No
    Arizona county produced evidence of confirmed ballot
    collection fraud in response to subpoenas issued in this case,
    nor has the Attorney General’s Office produced such
    information.” 
    Id. at 853
    .
    Ballot-collection-related fraud was already criminalized
    under Arizona law when H.B. 2023 was enacted. Collecting
    and failing to turn in someone else’s ballot was already a
    class 5 felony. Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-1005(F). Marking
    someone else’s ballot was already a class 5 felony. 
    Id. § 16-
    1005(A). Selling one’s own ballot, possessing someone
    else’s ballot with the intent to sell it, knowingly soliciting the
    collection of ballots by misrepresenting one’s self as an
    election official, and knowingly misrepresenting the location
    of a ballot drop-off site were already class 5 felonies. 
    Id. § 16-
    1005(B)–(E). These criminal prohibitions are still in
    effect. Arizona also takes measures to ensure the security of
    early ballots, such as using “tamper evident envelopes and a
    rigorous voter signature verification procedure.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 854
    .
    DNC V. HOBBS                          91
    The history of H.B. 2023 shows that its proponents had
    other aims in mind than combating fraud. H.B. 2023 does not
    forbid fraudulent third-party ballot collection. It forbids non-
    fraudulent third-party ballot collection. To borrow an
    understated phrase, the anti-fraud rationale advanced in
    support of H.B. 2023 “seems to have been contrived.” Dep’t
    of Commerce v. New York, 
    139 S. Ct. 2551
    , 2575 (2019).
    Second, we recognize the importance of public
    confidence in election integrity. We are aware that the
    federal bipartisan Commission on Federal Election Reform,
    charged with building public confidence, recommended inter
    alia that States “reduce the risks of fraud and abuse in
    absentee voting by prohibiting ‘third-party’ organizations,
    candidates, and political party activists from handling
    absentee ballots.” Building Confidence in U.S. Elections
    § 5.2 (Sept. 2005). We are aware of the recent case of voter
    fraud in North Carolina involving collection and forgery of
    absentee ballots by a political operative hired by a Republican
    candidate. And we are aware that supporters of H.B. 2023
    and its predecessor bills sought to convince Arizona voters,
    using false allegations and racial innuendo, that third-party
    ballot collectors in Arizona have engaged in fraud.
    Without in the least discounting either the common sense
    of the bipartisan commission’s recommendation or the
    importance of public confidence in the integrity of elections,
    we emphasize, first, that the Supreme Court has instructed us
    in Section 2 cases to make an “intensely local appraisal.”
    
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 78
    . The third-party ballot collection
    fraud case in North Carolina has little bearing on the case
    before us. We are concerned with Arizona, where third-party
    ballot collection has had a long and honorable history, and
    where the acts alleged in the criminal indictment in North
    92                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Carolina were illegal under Arizona law before the passage
    of H.B. 2023, and would still be illegal if H.B. 2023 were no
    longer the law.
    We emphasize, further, that if some Arizonans today
    distrust third-party ballot collection, it is because of the
    fraudulent campaign mounted by proponents of H.B. 2023.
    Those proponents made strenuous efforts to persuade
    Arizonans that third-party ballot collectors have engaged in
    election fraud. To the degree that there has been any fraud,
    it has been the false and race-based claims of the proponents
    of H.B. 2023. It would be perverse if those proponents, who
    used false statements and race-based innuendo to create
    distrust, could now use that very distrust to further their aims
    in this litigation.
    The district court clearly erred in finding that this factor
    does not weigh in Plaintiffs’ favor. This factor either weighs
    in Plaintiffs’ favor or is, at best, neutral.
    viii. Assessment
    The district court made the same overall assessment of the
    Senate factors in addressing H.B. 2023 as in addressing
    Arizona’s policy of discarding OOP ballots. As it did with
    respect to OOP ballots, the court concluded that Plaintiffs had
    not carried their burden at step two. Here, too, the district
    court’s conclusion was clearly erroneous. Contrary to the
    court’s conclusion, Plaintiffs have successfully shown that six
    of the Senate factors weigh in their favor and that the
    remaining factor weighs in their favor or is neutral.
    DNC V. HOBBS                          93
    c. Summary
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in holding that
    Plaintiffs’ challenge to H.B. 2023 failed under the results test.
    We hold that Plaintiffs have carried their burden at both steps
    one and two. First, they have shown that H.B. 2023 imposes
    a disparate burden on American Indian, Hispanic, and African
    American citizens, resulting in the “denial or abridgement of
    the right” of its citizens to vote “on account of race or color.”
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(a). Second, they have shown that, under
    the “totality of circumstances,” the discriminatory burden
    imposed by H.B. 2023 is in part caused by or linked to “social
    and historical conditions” that have or currently produce “an
    inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by [minority] and
    white voters to elect their preferred representatives” and to
    participate in the political process. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ;
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(b).
    We therefore conclude that H.B. 2023 violates the results
    test of Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act.
    B. Intent Test: H.B. 2023
    As indicated above, uncontested evidence in the district
    court established that before enactment of H.B. 2023, a large
    and disproportionate number of minority voters relied on
    third parties to collect and deliver their early ballots.
    Uncontested evidence also established that, beginning in
    2011, Arizona Republicans made sustained efforts to outlaw
    third-party ballot collection. After a racially charged
    campaign, they finally succeeded in passing H.B. 2023. The
    question is whether the district court clearly erred in holding
    that H.B. 2023 does not violate the “intent test” of Section 2.
    94                     DNC V. HOBBS
    1. The Intent Test
    Village of Arlington Heights v. Metropolitan Housing
    Development Corp., 
    429 U.S. 252
    (1977), provides the
    framework for analyzing a claim of intentional discrimination
    under Section 2. See, e.g., N.C. State Conference of NAACP
    v. McCrory, 
    831 F.3d 204
    , 220–21 (4th Cir. 2016). Under
    Arlington Heights, Plaintiffs have an initial burden of
    providing “[p]roof of racially discriminatory intent or
    purpose.” Arlington 
    Heights, 429 U.S. at 265
    . Plaintiffs need
    not show that discriminatory purpose was the “sole[]” or even
    a “primary” motive for the legislation. 
    Id. Rather, Plaintiffs
    need only show that discriminatory purpose was “a
    motivating factor.” 
    Id. at 265–66
    (emphasis added).
    “Determining whether invidious discriminatory purpose
    was a motivating factor demands a sensitive inquiry into such
    circumstantial and direct evidence of intent as may be
    available.” 
    Id. at 266.
    “[D]iscriminatory purpose may often
    be inferred from the totality of the relevant facts, including
    the fact, if it is true, that the law bears more heavily on one
    race than another.” Washington v. Davis, 
    426 U.S. 229
    , 242
    (1976). Because “[o]utright admissions of impermissible
    racial motivation are infrequent[,] . . . plaintiffs often must
    rely upon other evidence,” including the broader context
    surrounding passage of the legislation. Hunt v. Cromartie,
    
    526 U.S. 541
    , 553 (1999). “In a vote denial case such as the
    one here, where the plaintiffs allege that the legislature
    imposed barriers to minority voting, this holistic approach is
    particularly important, for ‘[d]iscrimination today is more
    subtle than the visible methods used in 1965.’” N.C. State
    Conference of 
    NAACP, 831 F.3d at 221
    (quoting H.R. Rep.
    No. 109–478, at 6 (2006)).
    DNC V. HOBBS                          95
    Arlington Heights provided a non-exhaustive list of
    factors that a court should consider. Arlington 
    Heights, 429 U.S. at 266
    . The factors include (1) the historical
    background; (2) the sequence of events leading to enactment,
    including any substantive or procedural departures from the
    normal legislative process; (3) the relevant legislative history;
    and (4) whether the law has a disparate impact on a particular
    racial group. 
    Id. at 266–68.
    “Once racial discrimination is shown to have been a
    ‘substantial’ or ‘motivating’ factor behind enactment of the
    law, the burden shifts to the law’s defenders to demonstrate
    that the law would have been enacted without this factor.”
    Hunter v. Underwood, 
    471 U.S. 222
    , 228 (1985). In
    determining whether a defendant’s burden has been carried,
    “courts must scrutinize the legislature’s actual non-racial
    motivations to determine whether they alone can justify the
    legislature’s choices.” N.C. State Conference of 
    NAACP, 831 F.3d at 221
    (emphases in original) (citing Mt. Healthy
    City Sch. Dist. Bd. of Educ. v. Doyle, 
    429 U.S. 274
    , 287
    (1977); Miss. Univ. for Women v. Hogan, 
    458 U.S. 718
    , 728
    (1982)). “In the context of a § 2 discriminatory intent
    analysis, one of the critical background facts of which a court
    must take notice is whether voting is racially polarized.” 
    Id. “[I]ntentionally targeting
    a particular race’s access to the
    franchise because its members vote for a particular party, in
    a predictable manner, constitutes discriminatory purpose.”
    
    Id. at 222.
    96                     DNC V. HOBBS
    2. H.B. 2023 and the Intent Test
    a. Arlington Heights Factors and Initial Burden of Proof
    The district court wrote, “Having considered [the
    Arlington Heights] factors, the Court finds that H.B. 2023
    was not enacted with a racially discriminatory purpose.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 879
    . The court then went on to
    discuss each of the four factors, but did not attach any
    particular weight to any of them. In holding that the
    Plaintiffs had not shown that discriminatory purpose was “a
    motivating factor,” the district court clearly erred.
    We address the Arlington Heights factors in turn.
    i. Historical Background
    “A historical pattern of laws producing discriminatory
    results provides important context for determining whether
    the same decisionmaking body has also enacted a law with
    discriminatory purpose.” N.C. State Conference of 
    NAACP, 831 F.3d at 223
    –24; see Arlington 
    Heights, 429 U.S. at 267
    (“The historical background of the decision is one evidentiary
    source, particularly if it reveals a series of official actions
    taken for invidious purposes.”). As recounted above, the
    Arizona legislature has a long history of race-based
    discrimination, disenfranchisement, and voter suppression,
    dating back to Arizona’s territorial days. Further, the history
    of H.B. 2023 itself reveals invidious purposes.
    In addressing the “historical background” factor, the
    district court mentioned briefly the various legislative efforts
    to restrict third-party ballot collection that had been
    “spearheaded” by Senator Shooter, described briefly
    DNC V. HOBBS                        97
    Senator Shooter’s allegations of third-party ballot fraud, and
    alluded to the “racially-tinged” LaFaro Video. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 879
    –80. But the district court discounted their
    importance. We discuss the court’s analysis below, under the
    third Arlington Heights factor.
    ii. Sequence of Events Leading to Enactment
    “The specific sequence of events leading up to the
    challenged decision . . . may shed some light on the
    decisionmaker’s purposes.” Arlington 
    Heights, 429 U.S. at 267
    . We recounted above the sequence of events leading
    to the enactment of H.B. 2023. The district court
    acknowledged this history but again discounted its
    importance. We discuss the court’s analysis below, under the
    third Arlington Heights factor.
    iii. Relevant Legislative History
    “The legislative . . . history may be highly relevant,
    especially where there are contemporary statements by
    members of the decisionmaking body[.]” 
    Id. at 268.
    The
    district court found that legislators voted for H.B. 2023 in
    response to the “unfounded and often farfetched allegations
    of ballot collection fraud” made by former Senator Shooter,
    and the “racially-tinged LaFaro Video.” 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 880
    . As Chief Judge Thomas wrote: “Because
    there was ‘no direct evidence of ballot collection fraud . . .
    presented to the legislature or at trial,’ the district court
    understood that Shooter’s allegations and the LaFaro Video
    were the reasons the bill passed.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 748
    (Thomas, C.J., dissenting) (quoting 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 880
    ) (emphasis in original).
    98                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Senator Shooter was one of the major proponents of the
    efforts to limit third-party ballot collection and was
    influential in the passage of H.B. 2023. Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 879. According to the district court, Senator Shooter
    made “demonstrably false” allegations of ballot collection
    fraud. 
    Id. at 880
    . Senator Shooter’s efforts to limit ballot
    collection were motivated in substantial part by the “high
    degree of racial polarization in his district.” 
    Id. at 879.
    He
    was “motivated by a desire to eliminate” the increasingly
    effective efforts to ensure that Hispanic votes in his district
    were collected, delivered, and counted. 
    Id. The LaFaro
    Video provides even stronger evidence of
    racial motivation. Maricopa County Republican Chair
    LaFaro produced a video showing “a man of apparent
    Hispanic heritage”—a volunteer with a get-out-the-vote
    organization—apparently dropping off ballots at a polling
    place. 
    Id. at 876.
    LaFaro’s voice-over narration included
    unfounded statements, 
    id. at 877,
    “that the man was acting to
    stuff the ballot box” and that LaFaro “knew that he was a
    thug,” 
    id. at 876.
    The video was widely distributed. It was
    “shown at Republican district meetings,” “posted on
    Facebook and YouTube,” and “incorporated into a television
    advertisement.” 
    Id. at 877.
    The district court used the same rationale to discount the
    importance of all of the first three Arlington Heights factors.
    It pointed to the “sincere belief,” held by some legislators,
    that fraud in third-party ballot collection was a problem that
    needed to be addressed. The district court did so even though
    it recognized that the belief was based on the false and race-
    based allegations of fraud by Senator Shooter and other
    proponents of H.B. 2023. The court wrote: “Shooter’s
    allegations and the LaFaro Video were successful in
    DNC V. HOBBS                        99
    convincing H.B. 2023’s proponents that ballot collection
    presented opportunities for fraud that did not exist for in-
    person voting[.]” 
    Id. at 880
    .
    We accept the district court’s conclusion that some
    members of the legislature who voted for H.B. 2023 had a
    sincere, though mistaken, non-race-based belief that there had
    been fraud in third-party ballot collection, and that the
    problem needed to be addressed. However, as the district
    court found, that sincere belief had been fraudulently created
    by Senator Shooter’s false allegations and the “racially-
    tinged” LaFaro video. Even though some legislators did not
    themselves have a discriminatory purpose, that purpose may
    be attributable to their action under the familiar “cat’s paw”
    doctrine. The doctrine is based on the fable, often attributed
    to Aesop, in which a clever monkey induces a cat to use its
    paws to take chestnuts off of hot coals for the benefit of the
    monkey.
    For example, we wrote in Mayes v. Winco Holdings, Inc.,
    
    846 F.3d 1274
    (9th Cir. 2017):
    [T]he animus of a supervisor can affect an
    employment decision if the supervisor
    “influenced or participated in the
    decisionmaking process.” Dominguez-Curry
    [v. Nev. Transp. Dep’t], 424 F.3d [1027,]
    1039–40 [(9th Cir. 2017)]. Even if the
    supervisor does not participate in the ultimate
    termination decision, a “supervisor’s biased
    report may remain a causal factor if the
    independent investigation takes it into account
    without determining that the adverse action
    was, apart from the supervisor’s
    100                    DNC V. HOBBS
    recommendation, entirely justified.” Staub v.
    Proctor Hosp., 
    562 U.S. 411
    , 421 (2011).
    
    Id. at 1281;
    see also Poland v. Chertoff , 
    494 F.3d 1174
    , 1182
    (9th Cir. 2007) (“[I]f a subordinate . . . sets in motion a
    proceeding by an independent decisionmaker that leads to an
    adverse employment action, the subordinate’s bias is imputed
    to the employer if the plaintiff can prove that the allegedly
    independent adverse employment decision was not actually
    independent because the biased subordinate influenced or was
    involved in the decision or decisionmaking process.”).
    The good-faith belief of these sincere legislators does not
    show a lack of discriminatory intent behind H.B. 2023.
    Rather, it shows that well meaning legislators were used as
    “cat’s paws.” Convinced by the false and race-based
    allegations of fraud, they were used to serve the
    discriminatory purposes of Senator Shooter, Republican
    Chair LaFaro, and their allies.
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in discounting
    the importance of the first three Arlington Heights factors.
    We hold that all three factors weigh in favor of showing that
    discriminatory intent was a motivating factor in enacting H.B.
    2023.
    iv. Disparate Impact on a Particular Racial Group
    “The impact of the official action[,] whether it ‘bears
    more heavily on one race than another,’ may provide an
    important starting point. Sometimes a clear pattern,
    unexplainable on grounds other than race, emerges from the
    effect of the state action even when the governing legislation
    appears neutral on its face.” Arlington Heights, 429 U.S.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         101
    at 266 (internal citation omitted). As described above,
    uncontested evidence shows that H.B. 2023 has an adverse
    and disparate impact on American Indian, Hispanic, and
    African American voters. The district court found that the
    legislature “was aware” of the impact of H.B. 2023 on what
    the court called “low-efficacy minority communities.”
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 881
    .
    It appears that the district court weighed this factor in
    favor of showing discriminatory intent as a motivating factor
    in enacting H.B. 2023. The court did not clearly err in so
    doing.
    v. Assessment
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in holding that
    Plaintiffs failed to carry their initial burden of proof of
    showing that racial discrimination was a motivating factor
    leading to the enactment of H.B. 2023. We hold that all four
    of the Arlington Heights factors weigh in favor of Plaintiffs.
    Our holding does not mean that the majority of the Arizona
    state legislature “harbored racial hatred or animosity toward
    any minority group.” N.C. State Conference of 
    NAACP, 831 F.3d at 233
    . “But the totality of the circumstances”—
    Arizona’s long history of race-based voting discrimination;
    the Arizona legislature’s unsuccessful efforts to enact less
    restrictive versions of the same law when preclearance was a
    threat; the false, race-based claims of ballot collection fraud
    used to convince Arizona legislators to pass H.B. 2023; the
    substantial increase in American Indian and Hispanic voting
    attributable to ballot collection that was targeted by H.B.
    2023; and the degree of racially polarized voting in
    Arizona—“cumulatively and unmistakably reveal” that
    102                     DNC V. HOBBS
    racial discrimination was a motivating factor in enacting
    H.B. 2023. 
    Id. b. Would
    H.B. 2023 Otherwise Have Been Enacted
    At the second step of the Arlington Heights analysis,
    Arizona has the burden of showing that H.B. 2023 would
    have been enacted without racial discrimination as a
    motivating factor. Because the district court held that
    Plaintiffs had not carried their initial burden, it did not reach
    the second step of the Arlington Heights analysis.
    Although there is no holding of the district court directed
    to Arlington Heights’ second step, the court made a factual
    finding that H.B. 2023 would not have been enacted without
    racial discrimination as a motivating factor. The court
    specifically found that H.B. 2023 would not have been
    enacted without Senator Shooter’s and LaFaro’s false and
    race-based allegations of voter fraud. The court wrote, “The
    legislature was motivated by a misinformed belief that ballot
    collection fraud was occurring, but a sincere belief that mail-
    in ballots lacked adequate prophylactic safeguards as
    compared to in-person voting.” Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at
    882. That is, members of the legislature, based on the
    “misinformed belief” created by Shooter, LaFaro, and their
    allies and serving as their “cat’s paws,” voted to enact H.B.
    2023. See 
    Poland, 494 F.3d at 1182
    . Based on the court’s
    finding, we hold that Arizona has not carried its burden of
    showing that H.B. 2023 would have been enacted without the
    motivating factor of racial discrimination.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        103
    c. Summary
    We hold that the district court clearly erred in holding that
    Plaintiffs failed to establish that H.B. 2023 violates the intent
    test of Section 2 of the VRA. A holding that H.B. 2023
    violates the intent test of Section 2 necessarily entails a
    holding that it also violates the Fifteenth Amendment.
    III. Response to Dissents
    We respectfully disagree with our dissenting colleagues.
    For the most part, our response to their contentions is
    contained in the body of our opinion and needs no
    elaboration. Several contentions, however, merit a specific
    response.
    A. Response to the First Dissent
    Our first dissenting colleague, Judge O’Scannlain, makes
    several mistakes.
    First, our colleague contends that H.B. 2023 does not
    significantly change Arizona law. Our colleague writes:
    For years, Arizona has restricted who may
    handle early ballots. Since 1992, Arizona has
    prohibited anyone but the elector himself
    from possessing “that elector’s unvoted
    absentee ballot.” 1991 Ariz. Legis. Serv. Ch.
    310, § 22 (S.B. 1390) (West). In 2016,
    Arizona enacted a parallel regulation, H.B.
    104                    DNC V. HOBBS
    2023 (the “ballot-collection” policy),
    concerning the collection of early ballots.
    Diss. Op. at 116–117 (emphases added).
    Our colleague appends a footnote to the first sentence in
    the passage just quoted:
    The majority’s effort to deny history can
    easily be dismissed. Maj. Op. 104–105. As
    Judge Bybee’s dissent ably recounts, not only
    Arizona but 21 other states have restricted
    early balloting for years. Bybee, J. Diss. Op.
    157–158.
    Our colleague fails to recognize the distinction between
    “unvoted” and “voted” ballots. Contrary to our colleague’s
    contention, H.B. 2023 is not “a parallel regulation” to already
    existing Arizona law. Under prior Arizona law, possession of
    an “unvoted absentee ballot” was forbidden. Arizona law in
    no way restricted non-fraudulent possession of voted absentee
    ballots (absentee ballots on which the vote had already been
    indicated). Unlike our colleague, the district court recognized
    the distinction. It wrote:
    Since 1997, it has been the law in Arizona
    that “[o]nly the elector may be in possession
    of that elector’s unvoted early ballot.” A.R.S.
    § 16-542(D). In 2016, Arizona amended
    A.R.S. § 16-1005 by enacting H.B. 2023,
    DNC V. HOBBS                        105
    which limits who may collect a voter’s voted
    or unvoted early ballot.
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 839
    (emphases added). H.B.
    2023 for the first time forbade non-fraudulent collection of
    voted ballots. It was not a “parallel regulation.” It was a
    fundamental change in Arizona law.
    Second, our colleague repeats the potentially misleading
    numbers and percentages of OOP voting recounted by the
    district court. Our colleague writes:
    Only 0.47 percent of all ballots cast in the
    2012 general election (10,979 out of
    2,323,579) were not counted because they
    were cast out of the voter’s assigned precinct.
    [Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    ] at 872. In 2016,
    this fell to 0.15 percent (3,970 out of
    2,661,497). 
    Id. Diss. Op.
    at 122–123. Our colleague, like the district court,
    see 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 872
    , fails to mention that, as
    a percentage of all in-person ballots, OOP ballots increased
    between 2012 and 2016.
    Third, our colleague quotes from a sentence in a footnote
    in the Supreme Court’s opinion in Gingles. Based on that
    sentence, he insists that “substantial difficulty electing
    representatives of their choice” is the governing standard for
    the Section 2 results test in the case before us. Our colleague
    writes:
    [In Gingles], the Court observed that “[i]t is
    obvious that unless minority group members
    106                    DNC V. HOBBS
    experience substantial difficulty electing
    representatives of their choice, they cannot
    prove that a challenged electoral mechanism
    impairs their ability ‘to elect.’” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15 (quoting 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301(b)) (emphasis added).
    Diss. Op. at 124 (emphasis in original). He later writes:
    Given the lack of any testimony in the record
    indicating that the ballot-collection policy
    would result in minority voters
    ‘experienc[ing] substantial difficulty electing
    representatives of their choice,’ 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15, the district court did not
    clearly err[.]
    
    Id. at 132
    (emphasis added).
    Our colleague fails to distinguish between a vote dilution
    case and a vote denial case. As we noted above, a vote
    dilution case is one in which multimember electoral districts
    have been formed, or in which district lines have been drawn,
    so as to dilute and thereby diminish the effectiveness of
    minority votes. Vote denial cases are all other cases,
    including cases in which voters are prevented from voting or
    in which votes are not counted. Gingles was a vote dilution
    case, and the case before us is a vote denial case. Our
    colleague fails to quote the immediately preceding sentence
    in the Gingles footnote, which makes clear that the Court was
    addressing vote dilution cases. The Court wrote, “In
    recognizing that some Senate Report factors are more
    important to multimember district vote dilution claims than
    DNC V. HOBBS                        107
    others, the Court effectuates the intent of Congress.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15 (emphasis added).
    The standard in a vote denial case is different, as
    recognized by DOJ in its amicus brief in this case, and in
    League of Women Voters where the Fourth Circuit struck
    down a state statute that would have prevented the counting
    of OOP ballots in North Carolina without inquiring into
    whether the number of affected ballots was likely to affect
    election outcomes. 
    See 769 F.3d at 248
    –49. As we noted
    above, there may be a de minimis number in vote denial cases
    challenging facially neutral policies or law, but the 3,709
    OOP ballots in our case is above any such de minimis
    number.
    Citing our en banc decision in Gonzalez, our colleague
    contends that our case law does not differentiate between vote
    denial and vote dilution cases. But the very language from
    Gonzalez that he quotes belies his contention. We wrote in
    text:
    [A] § 2 challenge “based purely on a showing
    of some relevant statistical disparity between
    minorities and whites,” without any evidence
    that the challenged voting qualification causes
    that disparity, will be rejected.
    
    Gonzalez, 677 F.3d at 405
    . We then appended a footnote,
    upon which our colleague relies:
    This approach applies both to claims of vote
    denial and of vote dilution. [Smith v. Salt
    River Project Agric. Improvement & Power
    108                     DNC V. HOBBS
    Dist., 
    109 F.3d 586
    ,] 596 n.8 [(9th Cir.
    1997)].
    
    Id. at 405
    n.32. The quoted language makes the obvious
    point that in both vote denial and vote dilution cases, we
    require evidence of a causal relation between a challenged
    voting qualification and any claimed statistical disparity
    between minority and white voters. However, this language
    does not tell us that the predicate disparity, and its effect, are
    the same in vote denial and vote dilution cases.
    B. Response to the Second Dissent
    Our second dissenting colleague, Judge Bybee, writes “to
    make a simple point: The Arizona rules challenged here are
    part of an ‘electoral process that is necessarily structured to
    maintain the integrity of the democratic system.’” Diss. Op.
    at 142 (quoting Burdick v. Takushi, 
    504 U.S. 428
    , 441
    (1992)). We respectfully disagree. There is nothing in
    Arizona’s policy of discarding OOP votes or about H.B. 2023
    that is necessary “to maintain the integrity” of Arizona’s
    democratic system.
    Our colleague writes, further, “Parties of all stripes should
    have an equal interest in rules that are both fair on their face
    and fairly administered.” 
    Id. at 144.
    Our colleague
    misunderstands the purpose of the VRA’s results test of
    Section 2. The results test looks past the facial fairness of a
    law to its actual results.
    We take these two points in turn.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        109
    1. Integrity of Arizona’s Democratic System
    First, our colleague uses his “simple point” to justify
    Arizona’s OOP policy and H.B. 2023 on the ground that they
    are necessary to protect the integrity of Arizona’s system.
    Our colleague argues that eliminating Arizona’s OOP
    policy will “lower[] the cost to voters of determining where
    they are supposed to vote, but only as to presidential, U.S.
    Senate, and statewide races,” and will have “its own
    consequences.” 
    Id. at 151,
    153. To illustrate those
    consequences, our colleague imagines a voter from Tuscon
    who votes in Phoenix. Based on his imagined voter, he posits
    “two predictable ways” in which future elections in Arizona
    will be “skew[ed]” if OOP votes are counted for the elections
    in which the voter is entitled to vote. 
    Id. at 152.
    Because his
    imagined voter cares only about national elections, that voter
    “may vote with impunity in the wrong precinct.” 
    Id. at 152.
    This will result, first, in “overvalu[ing]” national elections,
    and, second, in “undervalu[ing]” local elections. 
    Id. Our colleague
    speculates that Arizona’s OOP policy will
    result in voters either finding the right precinct, or voting by
    mail. He writes:
    Under Arizona’s current OOP rule, a voter,
    having gone to the trouble of going to a
    precinct to vote in person and suffering the
    indignity of having to fill out a provisional
    ballot, is less likely to make the same mistake
    next year. A voter who has had a ballot
    disqualified is more likely to figure out the
    correct precinct next time—or, better yet, sign
    up for the convenience of early voting, a
    110                    DNC V. HOBBS
    measure that avoids the conundrum of OOP
    altogether.
    
    Id. at 155.
    Our colleague’s speculation leads him to predict that
    Arizona’s OOP policy will lead to increased in-precinct
    voting. There is nothing in the record that remotely supports
    our colleague’s predicted consequences. Instead, the record
    clearly shows the opposite. Arizona’s OOP policy has been
    in place since at least 1970. 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 840
    .
    The record shows that, despite its long-standing policy,
    Arizona has consistently had by far the highest rate of OOP
    voting of any State—in 2012, eleven times greater than the
    second-place State. See Figure 6, supra at 13; see also
    Rodden at 26 (describing OOP voting as a “persistent
    problem” in Arizona).
    Contrary to our colleague’s speculation, OOP voters are
    unlikely ever to discover the “indignity” of having their
    provisional ballots discarded. Our colleague quotes from an
    Arizona statute requiring county recorders to establish a
    “method” by which a voter casting a provisional ballot be
    notified that his or ballot was not counted, and giving a
    reason why it was not counted. Diss. Op. at 155 n.9.
    However, there is nothing in the record showing that county
    recorders have in fact established, or followed, such a
    “method.” Instead, there was uncontradicted testimony in the
    district court by OOP voters that they were not directed to
    their proper polling place and were never told that their vote
    would not be counted if cast out of precinct. See 
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 858
    (finding that poll workers neither
    directed OOP voters to the correct precinct nor told voters
    that OOP ballots would be discarded).
    DNC V. HOBBS                        111
    The persistence of OOP voting is unsurprising given the
    actions of Arizona. Arizona changes polling places with
    extraordinary frequency, and often locates them in
    inconvenient and misleading places. This produces a high
    rate of OOP voting, particularly in urban areas and
    particularly for voters with high rates of residential mobility.
    The uncontested result is that minority voters cast OOP votes
    twice as often as white voters.
    Our colleague further argues that H.B. 2023 is an
    appropriate measure to protect against voter fraud. He begins
    by pointing out that many States forbid third-party ballot
    collection. Diss. Op. at 158–160. But a simple numerical
    comparison with other states fails to take into account, as the
    VRA says we must, the particular geography, ethnic patterns,
    and long history of third-party ballot collection in Arizona.
    See 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 78
    (a Section 2 analysis requires “a
    blend of history and an intensely local appraisal”). Evidence
    in the record shows that third-party ballot collection has long
    had a unique role in Arizona, given the large numbers of
    Hispanic and American Indian voters who have unreliable or
    non-existent in-home mail service, who have unreliable
    means of transportation, who live long distances from polling
    places, and who have long-standing cultural traditions of
    ballot collection. Evidence in the record shows that Arizona
    has never, in its long history of third-party ballot collection,
    found a single case of fraud.
    Our colleague also argues that Arizona should not ignore
    the recommendation of the report of the bipartisan
    commission, Building Confidence in U.S. Elections (2005).
    Diss. Op. at 161–164. This is a reasonable argument, but it
    has limited force when applied to Arizona. Forbidding third-
    party ballot collection protects against potential voter fraud.
    112                     DNC V. HOBBS
    But such protection is not necessary, or even appropriate,
    when there is a long history of third-party ballot collection
    with no evidence, ever, of any fraud and such fraud is already
    illegal under existing Arizona law. Such protection is
    undesirable, even illegal, when a statute forbidding third-
    party ballot collection produces a discriminatory result or is
    enacted with discriminatory intent. The commission was
    concerned with maintaining “confidence” in our election
    system, as indicated by the title of its report. If there is a lack
    of confidence in third-party ballot collection in Arizona, it is
    due to the fraudulent, race-based campaign mounted by the
    proponents of H.B. 2023.
    Finally, our colleague points to third-party ballot
    collection fraud perpetrated by a Republican political
    operative in North Carolina. 
    Id. at 164–166.
    Our colleague’s
    argument ignores the different histories and political cultures
    in Arizona and North Carolina, and puts to one side as
    irrelevant the long and honorable history of third-party ballot
    collection in Arizona. The argument also ignores the fact that
    Arizona had long had statutes prohibiting fraudulent handling
    of both unvoted and voted ballots by third parties, even
    before the enactment of H.B. 2023. The actions of the North
    Carolina Republican operative, if performed in Arizona,
    would have been illegal under those statutes. H.B. 2023 does
    not forbid fraudulent third-party ballot collection. Such fraud
    is forbidden by other provisions of Arizona law. H.B. 2023
    forbids non-fraudulent third-party ballot collection.
    2. Rules that Are Fair on Their Face
    Second, our colleague defends Arizona’s OOP policy and
    H.B. 2023 as “rules that are . . . fair on their face.” 
    Id. at 144.
    The results test of Section 2 of the VRA is based on the
    DNC V. HOBBS                         113
    understanding that laws that are “fair on their face” can, as in
    this case, produce discriminatory results. Indeed, Congress
    added the results test to the VRA precisely to address laws
    that were fair on their face but whose result was unfair
    discrimination.
    Arizona’s OOP policy and H.B. 2023 both fail the results
    test. The result of Arizona’s OOP policy is that twice as
    many minority ballots as white ballots are thrown away.
    Prior to the enactment of H.B. 2023, third-party ballot
    collectors, acting in good faith, collected many thousands of
    valid ballots cast by minority voters. White voters rarely
    relied on third-party ballot collection. The result of H.B.
    2023 is that many thousands of minority ballots will now not
    be collected and counted, while white ballots will be largely
    unaffected.
    IV. Conclusion
    We hold that Arizona’s OOP policy violates the results
    test of Section 2. We hold that H.B. 2023 violates both the
    results test and the intent test of Section 2. We hold that H.B.
    2023 also violates the Fifteenth Amendment. We do not
    reach Plaintiffs’ other constitutional challenges.
    We reverse the judgment of the district court and remand
    for further proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    REVERSED and REMANDED.
    114                          DNC V. HOBBS
    WATFORD, Circuit Judge, concurring:
    I join the court’s opinion to the extent it invalidates
    Arizona’s out-of-precinct policy and H.B. 2023 under the
    results test. I do not join the opinion’s discussion of the
    intent test.
    O’SCANNLAIN, Circuit Judge, with whom CLIFTON,
    BYBEE, and CALLAHAN, Circuit Judges, join, dissenting:
    We have been asked to decide whether two current
    Arizona election practices violate the Voting Rights Act or
    the First, Fourteenth, or Fifteenth Amendments to the United
    States Constitution.1 Based on the record before us and
    1
    Section 2 of the Voting Rights Act prohibits a State from adopting
    an election practice that “results in a denial or abridgement of the right of
    any citizen of the United States to vote on account of race or color.”
    52 U.S.C. § 10301(a).
    The First Amendment to the United States Constitution provides in
    relevant part: “Congress shall make no law . . . abridging . . . the right of
    the people peaceably to assemble.” U.S. Const. amend. I.
    The Fourteenth Amendment guarantees: “No State shall make or
    enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges or immunities of
    citizens of the United States; nor shall any State deprive any person of life,
    liberty, or property, without due process of law; nor deny to any person
    within its jurisdiction the equal protection of the laws.” U.S. Const.
    amend. XIV.
    The Fifteenth Amendment ensures that the right “to vote shall not be
    denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race,
    color, or previous condition of servitude.” U.S. Const. amend. XV.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        115
    relevant Supreme Court and Ninth Circuit precedent, the
    answer to such question is clear: they do not. The majority,
    however, draws factual inferences that the evidence cannot
    support and misreads precedent along the way. In so doing,
    it impermissibly strikes down Arizona’s duly enacted policies
    designed to enforce its precinct-based election system and to
    regulate third-party collection of early ballots.
    I respectfully dissent.
    I
    Given the abundant discussion by the district court and
    the en banc majority, I offer only a brief summary of the
    policies at issue here and discuss the district court’s factual
    findings as pertinent to the analysis below.
    A
    Arizona offers voters several options: early mail ballot,
    early in-person voting, and in-person Election Day voting.
    Democratic Nat’l Comm. v. Reagan (“DNC”), 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    824, 838 (D. Ariz. 2018).
    1
    Since at least 1970, Arizona has required that in-person
    voters “cast their ballots in their assigned precinct and has
    enforced this system by counting only those ballots cast in the
    correct precinct.” 
    Id. at 840.
    A voter who arrives at a
    precinct in which he or she is not listed on the register may
    cast a provisional ballot, but Arizona will not count such
    ballot if it determines that the voter does not live in the
    116                          DNC V. HOBBS
    precinct in which he or she voted. 
    Id. For shorthand,
    I refer
    to this rule as Arizona’s “out-of-precinct” or “OOP” policy.
    Most Arizona voters, however, do not vote in person on
    Election Day. 
    Id. at 845.
    Arizona law permits all registered
    voters to vote early by mail or in person at an early voting
    location in the 27 days before an election. Ariz. Rev. Stat.
    §§ 16-121(A), 16-541(A), 16-542(D). All Arizona counties
    operate at least one location for early in person voting. DNC,
    
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 839. Rather than voting early in person,
    any voter may instead request an early ballot to be delivered
    to his or her mailbox on an election-by-election or permanent
    basis. 
    Id. In 2002,
    Arizona became the first state to make
    available an online voter registration option, which also
    permits voters to enroll in permanent early voting by mail.
    
    Id. Voters who
    so enroll will be sent an early ballot no later
    than the first day of the 27-day early voting period. 
    Id. Voters may
    return early ballots in person at any polling place,
    vote center, or authorized office without waiting in line or
    may return their early ballots by mail at no cost. 
    Id. To be
    counted, however, an early ballot must be received by
    7:00 p.m. on Election Day. 
    Id. 2 For
    years, Arizona has restricted who may handle early
    ballots.2 Since 1992, Arizona has prohibited anyone but the
    elector himself from possessing “that elector’s unvoted
    absentee ballot.” 1991 Ariz. Legis. Serv. Ch. 310, § 22 (S.B.
    2
    The majority’s effort to deny history can easily be dismissed. Maj.
    Op. 104–105. As Judge Bybee’s dissent ably recounts, not only Arizona
    but 21 other states have restricted early balloting for years. Bybee, J. Diss.
    Op. 157–158.
    DNC V. HOBBS                               117
    1390) (West). In 2016, Arizona enacted a parallel regulation,
    H.B. 2023 (the “ballot-collection” policy), concerning the
    collection of early ballots.3 DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 839.
    Under the ballot-collection policy, only a “family member,”
    “household member,” “caregiver,” “United States postal
    service worker” or other person authorized to transmit mail,
    or “election official” may return another voter’s completed
    early ballot. 
    Id. at 839–40
    (citing Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-
    1005(H)–(I)).
    B
    In April 2016, the Democratic National Committee, the
    Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, and the
    Arizona Democratic Party (together, “DNC”) sued the State
    of Arizona to challenge the OOP policy and the ballot-
    collection policy. The district court denied DNC’s motions
    to enjoin preliminarily enforcement of both polices, and DNC
    asked our court to issue injunctions pending appeal of such
    denials. After expedited proceedings before three-judge and
    en banc panels, our court denied the motion for an injunction
    against the OOP policy but granted the parallel motion
    against the ballot-collection policy. Feldman v. Ariz. Sec’y of
    State’s Office, 
    840 F.3d 1165
    (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc)
    (mem.) (per curiam); Feldman v. Ariz. Sec’y of State’s Office
    (Feldman III), 
    843 F.3d 366
    (9th Cir. 2016) (en banc). The
    Supreme Court, however, stayed our injunction against the
    ballot-collection policy and the OOP and ballot-collection
    policies functioned in usual fashion. Ariz. Sec’y of State’s
    Office v. Feldman, 
    137 S. Ct. 446
    (2016) (mem.).
    3
    While the majority refers to the legislation as “H.B. 2023,” I prefer
    to call it the ballot-collection policy by which it is commonly known and
    will do so throughout the dissent.
    118                        DNC V. HOBBS
    In 2017, the district court proceeded to the merits of
    DNC’s suit. In May 2018, after a ten-day bench trial, the
    district court issued a decision supported by thorough
    findings of fact and conclusions of law. DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 832. The district court found that DNC failed to prove
    any violation of the Voting Rights Act or the United States
    Constitution and issued judgment in the state’s favor. 
    Id. at 882–83.
    DNC timely appealed, and a three-judge panel of our
    court affirmed the decision of the district court in its entirety.
    Democratic Nat’l Comm. v. Reagan (“DNC”), 
    904 F.3d 686
    (9th Cir. 2018), vacated by order granting rehearing en banc,
    
    911 F.3d 942
    (9th Cir. 2019) (mem.). But today, the en banc
    panel majority reverses the decision of the district court and
    holds that the OOP and ballot-collection policies violate § 2
    of the Voting Rights Act and that the ballot-collection policy
    was enacted with discriminatory intent in violation of the
    Fifteenth Amendment.
    II
    The first mistake of the en banc majority is disregarding
    the critical standard of review. Although the majority recites
    the appropriate standard, it does not actually engage with it.4
    Maj. Op. 8–9. The standard is not complex. We review de
    novo the district court’s conclusions of law, but may review
    4
    As the majority admits, we review the district court’s “overall
    finding of vote dilution” under § 2 of the Voting Rights Act only for clear
    error. Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 79 (1986) (emphasis added);
    Maj. Op. 8–9. The majority quotes an elaboration of this standard by the
    Supreme Court in Gingles. Maj. Op. 8–9. But the Court in Gingles
    actually held that the district court’s ultimate finding was not clearly
    erroneous. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 80
    .
    DNC V. HOBBS                        119
    its findings of fact only for clear error. Navajo Nation v.
    U.S. Forest Serv., 
    535 F.3d 1058
    , 1067 (9th Cir. 2008) (en
    banc).
    The majority’s disregard of such standard and, thus, our
    appellate role, infects its analysis of each of DNC’s claims.
    The demanding clear error standard “plainly does not entitle
    a reviewing court to reverse the finding of the trier of fact
    simply because it is convinced that it would have decided the
    case differently.” Anderson v. City of Bessemer City,
    
    470 U.S. 564
    , 573 (1985). Rather, we may reverse a finding
    only if, “although there is evidence to support it, [we are] left
    with the definite and firm conviction that a mistake has been
    committed.” 
    Id. (quoting United
    States v. U. S. Gypsum Co.,
    
    333 U.S. 364
    , 395 (1948)). To do otherwise “oversteps the
    bounds of [our] duty under [Federal Rule of Civil Procedure]
    52(a)” by “duplicat[ing] the role of the lower court.” 
    Id. at 573.
    As explained in Parts III and IV, I fail to see how on
    the record before us one could be “left with a definite and
    firm conviction” that the district court erred.
    III
    DNC first contends that Arizona’s policies violate § 2 of
    the Voting Rights Act. A district court’s determination of
    whether a challenged practice violates § 2 of the Voting
    Rights Act is “intensely fact-based”: the court assesses the
    “totality of the circumstances” and conducts “a ‘searching
    practical evaluation of the past and present reality.’” Smith
    v. Salt River Project Agric. Improvements & Power Dist.
    (“Salt River”), 
    109 F.3d 586
    , 591 (9th Cir. 1997) (quoting
    Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 79 (1986)). Thus,
    “[d]eferring to the district court’s superior fact-finding
    120                    DNC V. HOBBS
    capabilities, we review only for clear error its ultimate
    finding of no § 2 violation.” 
    Id. at 591
    (emphasis added).
    In relevant part, § 2 provides:
    (a) No voting qualification or prerequisite to
    voting or standard, practice, or procedure shall
    be imposed or applied by any State . . . in a
    manner which results in a denial or
    abridgment of the right of any citizen of the
    United States to vote on account of race or
    color . . . .
    (b) A violation of subsection (a) is established
    if, based on the totality of circumstances, it is
    shown that the political processes leading to
    nomination or election in the State . . . are not
    equally open to participation by members of a
    class of citizens protected by subsection (a) in
    that its members have less opportunity than
    other members of the electorate to participate
    in the political process and to elect
    representatives of their choice.
    52 U.S.C. § 10301 (emphasis added). “The essence of a § 2
    claim is that a certain electoral law, practice, or structure
    interacts with social and historical conditions to cause an
    inequality in the opportunities enjoyed by black and white
    voters to elect their preferred representatives.” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    . To determine whether a practice violates § 2,
    courts employ a two-step analysis. See Ohio Democratic
    Party v. Husted, 
    834 F.3d 620
    , 637 (6th Cir. 2016); Veasey v.
    Abbott, 
    830 F.3d 216
    , 244 (5th Cir. 2016); Frank v. Walker,
    
    768 F.3d 744
    , 754–55 (7th Cir. 2014); League of Women
    DNC V. HOBBS                       121
    Voters of N.C. v. North Carolina, 
    769 F.3d 224
    , 240 (4th Cir.
    2014).
    The first step is asking whether the practice provides
    members of a protected class “less ‘opportunity’ than others
    ‘to participate in the political process and to elect
    representatives of their choice.’” Chisom v. Roemer,
    
    501 U.S. 380
    , 397 (1991) (alteration in original) (quoting
    52 U.S.C. § 10301). In other words, the challenged practice
    “must impose a discriminatory burden on members of a
    protected class.” League of Women 
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 240
    (emphasis added). To prevail at step one, the plaintiff
    therefore “must show a causal connection between the
    challenged voting practice and [a] prohibited discriminatory
    result.” Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (alteration in original)
    (quoting Ortiz v. City of Phila. Office of City Comm’rs Voter
    Registration Div., 
    28 F.3d 306
    , 312 (3d Cir. 1994)); see also
    Ohio Democratic 
    Party, 834 F.3d at 638
    . If a discriminatory
    burden is established, then—and only then—do we consider
    whether the burden is “caused by or linked to ‘social and
    historical conditions’ that have or currently produce
    discrimination against members of the protected class.”
    League of Women 
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 240
    (quoting 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ).
    The majority agrees that this two-step analysis controls
    but mistakenly applies it. According to the majority, DNC
    has shown that the OOP policy and the ballot-collection
    policy fail at both steps—and, presumably, that the district
    court clearly erred in finding otherwise. Under an
    appropriately deferential analysis, however, DNC cannot
    prevail even at step one: it has simply failed to show that
    either policy erects a discriminatory burden.
    122                    DNC V. HOBBS
    A
    As to the facially neutral OOP policy, DNC argues,
    erroneously, that wholly discarding, rather than partially
    counting, ballots that are cast out-of-precinct violates § 2 of
    the Voting Rights Act because such policy imposes a
    discriminatory burden on minority voters related to Arizona’s
    history of discrimination. The district court, quite properly,
    found that DNC failed to carry its burden at step one—that
    the practice imposes a discriminatory burden on minority
    voters—for two reasons. DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 873.
    1
    First, the district court determined that DNC failed to
    show “that the racial disparities in OOP voting are practically
    significant enough to work a meaningful inequality in the
    opportunities of minority voters as compared to non-minority
    voters.” 
    Id. Thus, it
    ruled that DNC failed to show that the
    precinct-based system has a “disparate impact on the
    opportunities of minority voters to elect their preferred
    representatives.” 
    Id. at 872.
    To the contrary, the district
    court made the factual finding that out-of-precinct “ballots
    represent . . . a small and ever-decreasing fraction of the
    overall votes cast in any given election.” 
    Id. Furthermore, the
    district court determined that “the
    burdens imposed by precinct-based voting . . . are not severe.
    Precinct-based voting merely requires voters to locate and
    travel to their assigned precincts, which are ordinary burdens
    traditionally associated with voting.” 
    Id. at 858.
    Indeed, the
    numbers found by the district court support such conclusion.
    Only 0.47 percent of all ballots cast in the 2012 general
    election (10,979 out of 2,323,579) were not counted because
    DNC V. HOBBS                         123
    they were cast out of the voter’s assigned precinct. 
    Id. at 872.
    In 2016, this fell to 0.15 percent (3,970 out of 2,661,497). 
    Id. And of
    those casting ballots in-person on Election Day,
    approximately 99 percent of minority voters and 99.5 percent
    of non-minority voters cast their ballots in their assigned
    precincts. 
    Id. Given that
    the overwhelming majority of all
    voters complied with the precinct-based voting system during
    the 2016 election, it is difficult to see how the district court’s
    finding could be considered clearly erroneous. See also
    Crawford v. Marion Cty. Election Bd., 
    553 U.S. 181
    , 198
    (2008) (plurality opinion) (discussing “the usual burdens of
    voting”). And it further ruled that DNC “offered no evidence
    of a systemic or pervasive history of minority voters being
    given misinformation regarding the locations of their
    assigned precincts, while non-minority voters were given
    correct information” to suggest that the burden of voting in
    one’s assigned precinct is more significant for minority voters
    than for non-minority voters. DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 873.
    As Judge Ikuta explained in her now-vacated majority
    opinion for the three-judge panel:
    If a challenged election practice is not
    burdensome or the state offers easily
    accessible alternative means of voting, a court
    can reasonably conclude that the law does not
    impair any particular group’s opportunity to
    “influence the outcome of an election,” even
    if the practice has a disproportionate impact
    on minority voters.
    
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 714
    (citation omitted) (quoting 
    Chisom, 501 U.S. at 397
    n.24). The “bare statistic[s]” presented may
    indeed show a disproportionate impact on minority voters,
    124                    DNC V. HOBBS
    but we have held previously that such showing is not enough.
    Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (“[A] bare statistical showing of
    disproportionate impact on a racial minority does not satisfy
    the § 2 ‘results’ inquiry.” (emphasis in original)). A court
    must evaluate the burden imposed by the challenged voting
    practice—not merely any statistical disparity that may be
    shown. The Supreme Court’s interpretation of § 2 in Gingles
    suggests the same. There, the Court observed that “[i]t is
    obvious that unless minority group members experience
    substantial difficulty electing representatives of their choice,
    they cannot prove that a challenged electoral mechanism
    impairs their ability ‘to elect.’” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15
    (emphasis added) (quoting 52 U.S.C. § 10301(b)).
    Furthermore, because “[n]o state has exactly equal
    registration rates, exactly equal turnout rates, and so on, at
    every stage of its voting system,” it cannot be the case that
    pointing to a mere statistical disparity related to a challenged
    voting practice is sufficient to “dismantle” that practice.
    
    Frank, 768 F.3d at 754
    ; see also Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    .
    The majority, however, contends that “the district court
    discounted the disparate burden on the ground that there were
    relatively few OOP ballots cast in relation to the total number
    of ballots.” Maj. Op. 43. In the majority’s view, the district
    court should have emphasized that the percentage of in-
    person ballots that were cast out-of-precinct increased, thus
    isolating the specific impact of the OOP policy amongst in-
    person voters bound by the precinct-system requirements.
    Contrary to the majority’s assertion, however, the legal
    review at hand does not require that we isolate the specific
    challenged practice in the manner it suggests. Rather, at step
    one of the § 2 inquiry, we only consider whether minority
    voters “experience substantial difficulty electing
    DNC V. HOBBS                               125
    representatives of their choice,” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15,
    “based on the totality of circumstances,” 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301(b).5 Although the majority would like us to believe
    that the increasing percentage of in-person ballots cast out-of-
    precinct demonstrates that minorities are disparately
    burdened by the challenged policy, the small number of
    voters who chose to vote in-person and the even smaller
    number of such voters who fail to do so in the correct precinct
    demonstrate that any minimal burden imposed by the policy
    does not deprive minority voters of equal opportunities to
    elect representatives of their choice. A conclusion otherwise
    could not be squared with our determination that a mere
    statistical showing of disproportionate impact on racial
    minorities does not satisfy the challenger’s burden. See Salt
    
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    . If such statistical impact is not
    sufficient, it must perforce be the case that the crucial test is
    5
    The majority correctly asserts that Gingles was a vote dilution not
    vote denial case. However, it incorrectly claims the standard in a vote
    denial case is different and, without stating such standard, it simply
    concludes that the 3,709 ballots cast out of precinct in the 2016 general
    election in Arizona is more than any “de minimis number” below which
    there is no Section 2 violation, without ever revealing what such minimum
    threshold might be. Maj. Op. 107. The majority cites League of Women
    Voters, a vote denial case, to reach this conclusion. 
    See 769 F.3d at 248
    –49. Yet, in that case, the Fourth Circuit relies on Gingles throughout
    to determine that the same analysis applies to vote denial and vote dilution
    cases. 
    Id. at 238–40.
    Earlier in its opinion, the majority itself uses
    Gingles as the standard for analyzing a § 2 violation in a vote denial case.
    Maj. Op. 37. The distinction the majority attempts to draw fails because,
    contrary to what the majority implies, “a § 2 challenge based purely on a
    showing of some relevant statistical disparity between minorities and
    whites, without any evidence that the challenged voting qualification
    causes that disparity, will be rejected,” Gonzalez v. Arizona, 
    677 F.3d 383
    ,
    495 (9th Cir. 2012) (internal quotation marks omitted), and “[t]his
    approach applies both to claims of vote denial and vote dilution.” 
    Id. at 495
    n. 32.
    126                        DNC V. HOBBS
    the extent to which the practice burdens minority voters as
    opposed to non-minority voters. But the en banc majority
    offers no explanation for how or why the burden of voting in
    one’s assigned precinct is severe or beyond that of the
    burdens traditionally associated with voting.
    The majority argues that there may be a “de minimis
    number” below which no § 2 violation has occurred.6 Maj.
    Op. 44. But we know from our own precedent that “a bare
    statistical showing of disproportionate impact on a racial
    minority does not satisfy the § 2 . . . inquiry.” Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (emphasis in original). And Chisom makes
    clear that § 2 “claims must allege an abridgment of the
    opportunity to participate in the political process and to elect
    representatives of one’s 
    choice.” 501 U.S. at 398
    (emphasis
    in original). As such, the inquiry must require consideration
    of both the scope of the burden imposed by the particular
    policy—not merely how many voters are impacted by it—and
    the difficulty of accessing the political process in its entirety.
    Thus, it cannot be true, as the majority suggests, that
    simply showing that some number of minority voters’ ballots
    were not counted as a result of an individual policy satisfies
    step one of the § 2 analysis for a facially neutral policy.
    2
    Second, the district court made the factual finding that
    “Arizona’s policy to not count OOP ballots is not the cause
    6
    As Judge Ikuta explained, “an election rule requiring voters to
    identify their correct precinct in order to have their ballots counted does
    not constitute a ‘disenfranchisement’ of voters.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 730
    n.33; see also 
    id. at 724
    n.27.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        127
    of [any identified] disparities in OOP voting.” DNC, 329 F.
    Supp. 3d at 872. According to the OOP policy that is
    challenged by DNC, a ballot is not counted if it is cast outside
    of the voter’s assigned precinct. And the district court
    pointed to several factors that result in higher rates of out-of-
    precinct voting among minorities. For example, the district
    court found that “high rates of residential mobility are
    associated with higher rates of OOP voting,” and minorities
    are more likely to move more frequently. 
    Id. at 857,
    872.
    Similarly, “rates of OOP voting are higher in neighborhoods
    where renters make up a larger share of householders.” 
    Id. at 857.
    The precinct-system may also pose special challenges
    for Native American voters, because they may “lack standard
    addresses” and there may be additional “confusion about the
    voter’s correct polling place” where precinct assignments
    may differ from assignments for tribal elections. 
    Id. at 873.
    “Additionally”, the district court found, Arizona’s “changes
    in polling locations from election to election, inconsistent
    election regimes used by and within counties, and placement
    of polling locations all tend to increase OOP voting rates.”
    
    Id. at 858.
    But the burden of complying with the precinct-based
    system in the face of any such factors is plainly
    distinguishable from the consequence imposed should a voter
    fail to comply. Indeed, as the district court found, “there is
    no evidence that it will be easier for voters to identify their
    correct precincts if Arizona eliminated its prohibition on
    counting OOP ballots.” 
    Id. Although “the
    consequence of
    voting OOP might make it more imperative for voters to
    correctly identify their precincts,” 
    id., such consequence
    does
    not cause voters to cast their ballots out-of-precinct or make
    it more burdensome for voters to cast their ballots in their
    assigned precincts.
    128                         DNC V. HOBBS
    The majority goes astray by failing to recognize the
    distinction between the burden of complying and the
    consequence of failing to do so. In fact, the majority
    undercuts its own claim by citing the same host of reasons
    identified by the district court as the reasons why a minority
    voter is more likely to vote out-of-precinct. Maj Op. 14–19.
    All the factors the majority seizes upon, however, stem from
    the general requirement that a voter cast his or her ballot in
    the assigned precinct—not the policy that enforces such
    requirement. The importance of such distinction is made
    clear by the relief that DNC seeks: DNC does not request that
    Arizona be made to end its precinct-based system or to assign
    its precincts differently, but instead requests that Arizona be
    made to count those ballots that are not cast in compliance
    with the OOP policy.7 Removing the enforcement policy,
    however, would do nothing to minimize or to extinguish the
    disparity that exists in out-of-precinct voting.
    Consider another basic voting requirement: in order to
    cast a ballot, a voter must register. If a person fails to
    register, his or her vote will not count. Any discriminatory
    result from such a policy would need to be addressed in a
    7
    The majority suggests that DNC challenges only “Arizona’s policy,
    within that system, of entirely discarding OOP ballots” as opposed to
    counting or partially counting them. Maj. Op. 78. But this is not a
    compromise position: there is no difference between counting and
    partially counting a ballot cast out-of-precinct. Counting an OOP ballot
    would entail evaluating the ballot to determine on which issues the person
    would have been qualified to vote in his or her assigned precinct and
    discarding the person’s votes as to issues on which he or she would not
    have been qualified to vote. Certainly, the majority isn’t suggesting that
    a person would ever be allowed to vote on issues which he or she would
    not have been eligible to vote even in the assigned precinct. It is difficult
    to discern any other possible meaning for what the majority refers to as
    entirely “counting” out-of-precinct ballots.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        129
    challenge to that policy itself. For example, if minorities are
    underrepresented as a segment of registered voters, perhaps
    they could challenge some discriminatory aspect of the
    registration system. But they surely could not prevail by
    challenging simply the state’s enforcement of the registration
    policy by refusing to count unregistered voters’ ballots.
    Minorities in a jurisdiction may very well be
    underrepresented as members of the registered electorate, but
    the discrepancy between the protected class as a segment of
    the general population and as a segment of the registered
    voting population would not require that a state permit
    unregistered voters to cast valid ballots on Election Day.
    Similarly, the fact that a ballot cast by a voter outside of
    his or her assigned precinct is discarded does not cause
    minorities to vote out-of-precinct disproportionately. But
    DNC does not challenge the general requirement that one
    vote in his or her precinct or take issue with the assignment
    of precinct locations—the very requirements that could lead
    to a disproportionate impact. It may indeed be the case in a
    precinct-based voting system that a state’s poor assignment
    of districts, distribution of inadequate information about
    voting requirements, or other factors have some material
    effect on election practices such that minorities have less
    opportunity to elect representatives of their choice as a result
    of the system. But, in the words of the majority, DNC’s
    challenge “assumes both [the] importance and [the] continued
    existence” of “Arizona’s precinct-based system of voting.”
    Maj. Op. 78. Instead, DNC challenges only Arizona’s
    enforcement of such system. Thus, even if there were a
    recognizable disparity in the opportunities of minority voters
    voting out-of-precinct, it would nonetheless not be the result
    of the policy at issue before us.
    130                     DNC V. HOBBS
    3
    I reject the suggestion implicit in the majority opinion that
    any facially neutral policy which may result in some
    statistical disparity is necessarily discriminatory under step
    one of the § 2 inquiry. We have already held otherwise. Salt
    
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    . And the majority itself concedes that
    “more than a de minimis number of minority voters must be
    burdened before a Section 2 violation based on the results test
    can be found.” Maj. Op. 44. Furthermore, I fail to see how
    DNC—and the majority—can concede the importance and
    continued existence of a precinct-based system, yet argue that
    the enforcement mechanism designed to maintain such
    system is impermissible.
    Because DNC has failed to meet its burden under step one
    of the Voting Rights Act § 2 inquiry—that the district court’s
    findings were clearly erroneous—our analysis of its OOP
    claim should end here.
    B
    As to the facially neutral ballot-collection policy, DNC
    argues, erroneously, that it violates § 2 because there is
    “extensive evidence” demonstrating that minority voters are
    more likely to have used ballot-collection services and that
    they would therefore be disproportionately burdened by
    limitations on such services. Specifically, DNC relies on
    anecdotal evidence that ballot collection has
    disproportionately occurred in minority communities, that
    minority voters were more likely to be without home mail
    delivery or access to transportation, and that ballot-harvesting
    efforts were disproportionately undertaken by the Democratic
    Party in minority communities. And, DNC claims, such
    DNC V. HOBBS                        131
    burden is caused by or linked to Arizona’s history of
    discrimination.
    The district court, quite properly, rejected such argument,
    making the factual finding that DNC failed to establish at step
    one that the ballot-collection policy imposed a discriminatory
    burden on minority voters. DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 866,
    871. Once again, the question is whether such finding was
    clearly erroneous. Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 591
    .
    1
    The district court found broadly that the non-quantitative
    evidence offered by DNC failed to show that the ballot-
    collection policy denied minority voters of “meaningful
    access to the political process.” DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 871. As Judge Ikuta observed, to determine whether the
    challenged policy provides minority voters “less opportunity
    to elect representatives of their choice, [we] must necessarily
    consider the severity and breadth of the law’s impacts on the
    protected class.” 
    DNC, 904 F.3d at 717
    .
    But no evidence of that impact has been offered. “In fact,
    no individual voter testified that [the ballot-collection
    policy’s] limitations on who may collect an early ballot
    would make it significantly more difficult to vote.” DNC,
    
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 871 (emphasis added). Anecdotal
    evidence of how voters have chosen to vote in the past does
    not establish that voters are unable to vote in other ways or
    would be burdened by having to do so. The district court
    simply found that “prior to the [ballot-collection policy’s]
    enactment minorities generically were more likely than non-
    minorities to return their early ballots with the assistance of
    third parties,” 
    id. at 870,
    but, once again, the disparate impact
    132                     DNC V. HOBBS
    of a challenged policy on minority voters is insufficient to
    establish a § 2 violation, see Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 594
    –95.
    The majority simply does not address the lack of evidence
    as to whether minority voters have less opportunity than non-
    minority voters now that ballot collection is more limited.
    Instead, the majority answers the wrong question by pointing
    to minority voters’ use of ballot collection in the past. The
    majority offers no record-factual support for its conclusion
    that the anecdotal evidence presented demonstrates that
    compliance with the ballot-collection policy imposes a
    disparate burden on minority voters—a conclusion that must
    be reached in order to satisfy step one of the § 2 inquiry—let
    alone evidence that the district court’s contrary finding was
    “clearly erroneous.”
    Given the lack of any testimony in the record indicating
    that the ballot-collection policy would result in minority
    voters “experienc[ing] substantial difficulty electing
    representatives of their choice,” 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 48
    n.15,
    the district court did not clearly err in finding that, “for some
    voters, ballot collection is a preferred and more convenient
    method of voting,” but a limitation on such practice “does not
    deny minority voters meaningful access to the political
    process.” DNC¸ 329 F. 3d Supp. at 871.
    2
    The district court further found that the ballot-collection
    policy was unlikely to “cause a meaningful inequality in the
    electoral opportunities of minorities” because only “a
    relatively small number of voters have used ballot collection
    services” in the past at all. DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 870–71.
    And, the district court noted, DNC “provided no quantitative
    DNC V. HOBBS                         133
    or statistical evidence comparing the proportion that is
    minority versus non-minority.” 
    Id. at 866.
    “Without this
    information,” the district court explained, “it becomes
    difficult to compare the law’s impact on different
    demographic populations and to determine whether the
    disparities, if any, are meaningful.” 
    Id. at 867.
    Thus, from
    the record, we do not know either the extent to which voters
    may be burdened by the ballot-collection policy or how many
    minority voters may be so burdened.
    Nonetheless, the district court considered circumstantial
    and anecdotal evidence offered by DNC and determined that
    “the vast majority of Arizonans, minority and non-minority
    alike, vote without the assistance of third-parties who would
    not fall within [the ballot-collection policy’s] exceptions.”
    
    Id. at 871.
    DNC—and the majority—argue that such finding
    is not supported by the record, but, given the lack of
    quantitative or statistical evidence before us, it is difficult to
    conclude that such finding is clearly erroneous. The district
    court itself noted that it could not “speak in more specific or
    precise terms” given the sparsity of the record. 
    Id. at 870.
    Drawing from anecdotal testimony, the district court
    estimated that fewer than 10,000 voters used ballot-collection
    services in any election. 
    Id. at 845.
    Drawing even “the
    unjustified inference that 100,000 early mail ballots were
    collected” during the 2012 general election, the district court
    found that such higher total would nonetheless be “relatively
    few early voters” as compared to the 1.4 million early mail
    ballots returned or 2.3 million total votes cast. 
    Id. at 845.
    The majority further argues that the district court erred in
    “discounting the evidence of third-party ballot collection as
    merely ‘circumstantial and anecdotal’” Maj. Op. 83. But the
    district court did nothing of the sort. To the contrary, the
    district court considered whether the ballot-collection policy
    134                     DNC V. HOBBS
    violated § 2 by making these estimates—and even generous
    estimates—from the anecdotal evidence offered. And the
    district court’s subsequent conclusion that the limitation of
    third-party ballot collection would impact only a “relatively
    small number of voters,” 
    id. at 870,
    is clearly plausible on
    this record, see Bessemer 
    City, 470 U.S. at 573
    .
    The majority also argues that the total number of votes
    affected is not the relevant inquiry; the proper test is whether
    the number of ballots collected by third parties surpasses any
    de minimis number. Maj. Op. 84. But we already know “that
    a bare statistical showing” that an election practice has a
    “disproportionate impact on a racial minority does not
    satisfy” step one of the § 2 inquiry. Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 595
    (emphasis in original). And, even if such impact were
    sufficient, the record offers no evidence from which the
    district court could determine the extent of the discrepancy
    between minority voters as a proportion of the entire
    electorate versus minority voters as a proportion of those who
    have voted using ballot-collection services in the past. DNC,
    
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 866–67.
    3
    As Judge Bybee keenly observed in a previous iteration
    of this case (and indeed in his dissent in this case), “[t]here is
    no constitutional or federal statutory right to vote by absentee
    ballot.” Feldman 
    III, 843 F.3d at 414
    (Bybee, J., dissenting)
    (citing McDonald v. Bd. of Election Comm’rs of Chi.,
    
    394 U.S. 802
    , 807–08 (1969)); accord Bybee, J. Diss.
    Op. 156. Both today and in the past, Arizona has chosen to
    provide a wide range of options to voters. But Arizona’s
    previous decision to permit a particular mechanism of voting
    does not preclude Arizona from modifying its election system
    DNC V. HOBBS                       135
    to limit such mechanism in the future so long as such
    modification is made in a constitutional manner. And, in fact,
    Arizona’s modification here was made in compliance with
    “the recommendation of the bipartisan Commission on
    Federal Election Reform.” DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 855.
    Without any evidence in the record of the severity and
    breadth of the burden imposed by this change to the ballot-
    collection policy, we cannot be “left with the definite and
    firm conviction” that the district court erred in finding that
    DNC failed to show that the policy violated § 2. See
    Bessemer 
    City, 470 U.S. at 573
    ; see also Salt 
    River, 109 F.3d at 591
    .
    C
    Because I disagree with the majority’s conclusion that
    DNC has satisfied its burden at step one of the § 2 Voting
    Rights Act inquiry, I would not reach step two. I therefore do
    not address the majority’s consideration of the so-called
    “Senate Factors” in determining whether the burden is “in
    part caused by or linked to ‘social and historical conditions’
    that have or currently produce discrimination against
    members of the protected class.” League of Women 
    Voters, 769 F.3d at 240
    (quoting 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 47
    ). These
    factors—and the majority’s lengthy history lesson on past
    election abuses in Arizona—simply have no bearing on this
    case. Indeed, pages 47 to 81 of the majority’s opinion may
    properly be ignored as irrelevant.
    IV
    DNC also contends that the ballot-collection policy
    violates the Fifteenth Amendment to the United States
    136                        DNC V. HOBBS
    Constitution.8 To succeed on a claim of discriminatory intent
    under the Fifteenth Amendment, the challenger must
    demonstrate that the state legislature “selected or reaffirmed
    a particular course of action at least in part ‘because of,’ not
    merely ‘in spite of,’ its adverse effects upon an identifiable
    group.” Pers. Adm’r of Mass. v. Feeney, 
    442 U.S. 256
    , 279
    (1979). Because discriminatory intent “is a pure question of
    fact,” we again review only for clear error. Pullman-
    Standard v. Swint, 
    456 U.S. 273
    , 287–88 (1982).
    “Determining whether invidious discriminatory purpose was
    a motivating factor demands a sensitive inquiry into such
    circumstantial and direct evidence of intent as may be
    available.” Vill. of Arlington Heights v. Metro. Hous. Dev.
    Corp., 
    429 U.S. 252
    , 266 (1977).
    The district court concluded that the ballot-collection
    policy did not violate the Fifteenth Amendment because it
    made the factual finding that the legislature “was not
    motivated by a desire to suppress minority voters,” although
    “some individual legislators and proponents of limitations on
    ballot collection harbored partisan motives” that “did not
    permeate the entire legislative process.” DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 879, 882 (emphasis added). Instead, “[t]he legislature
    was motivated by . . . a sincere belief that mail-in ballots
    lacked adequate prophylactic safeguards as compared to in-
    person voting.” 
    Id. at 882.
    In analyzing DNC’s appeal from
    such finding, the majority, once again, completely ignores our
    demanding standard of review and instead conducts its own
    8
    The Fifteenth Amendment authorizes Congress to enforce its
    guarantee that the right “to vote shall not be denied or abridged . . . by
    appropriate legislation.” U.S. Const. amend. XV. Section 2 of the Voting
    Rights Act is such legislation. Shelby Cty. v. Holder, 
    570 U.S. 529
    , 536
    (2013).
    DNC V. HOBBS                        137
    de novo review. Maj. Op. 93. Our duty is only to consider
    whether the district court clearly erred in its finding that the
    ballot-collection policy was not enacted with discriminatory
    intent. See Bessemer 
    City, 470 U.S. at 573
    . And “to be
    clearly erroneous, a decision must . . . strike [a court] as
    wrong with the force of a five-week old, unrefrigerated dead
    fish.” Ocean Garden, Inc. v. Marktrade Co., Inc., 
    953 F.2d 500
    , 502 (9th Cir. 1991) (quoting Parts & Elec. Motors, Inc.
    v. Sterling Elec., Inc., 
    866 F.2d 228
    , 233 (7th Cir. 1988)).
    The majority therefore fails to offer any basis—let alone
    a convincing one—for the conclusion that it must reach in
    order to reverse the decision of the district court: that the
    district court committed clear error in its factual findings.
    Given the failure of the majority to conduct its review in the
    proper manner, I see no reason to engage in a line-by-line
    debate with its flawed analysis. Rather, it is enough to note
    two critical errors made by the majority in ignoring the
    district court’s determinations that while some legislators
    were motivated by partisan concerns, the legislature as a body
    was motivated by a desire to enact prophylactic measures to
    prevent voter fraud.
    A
    First, the majority fails to distinguish between racial
    motives and partisan motives.             Even when “racial
    identification is highly correlated with political affiliation,”
    a party challenging a legislative action nonetheless must show
    that racial motives were a motivating factor behind the
    challenged policy. Cooper v. Harris, 
    137 S. Ct. 1455
    , 1473
    (2017) (quoting Easley v. Cromartie, 
    532 U.S. 234
    , 243
    (2001)). Nonetheless, the majority suggests that a legislator
    motivated by partisan interest to enact a law that
    138                    DNC V. HOBBS
    disproportionately impacts minorities must necessarily have
    acted with racially discriminatory intent as well. For
    example, the district court noted that Arizona State Senator
    Don Shooter was, “in part motivated by a desire to eliminate
    what had become an effective Democratic [Get Out The
    Vote] strategy.” DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 879. The majority
    simply concludes that such finding shows racially
    discriminatory intent as a motivating factor. But the
    majority’s unsupported inference does not satisfy the required
    showing. And the majority fails to cite any evidence
    demonstrating that the district court’s finding to the contrary
    was not “plausible in light of the record viewed in its
    entirety.” Bessemer 
    City, 470 U.S. at 574
    .
    B
    Second, in defiance of Supreme Court precedent to the
    contrary, the majority assumes that a legislature’s stated
    desire to prevent voter fraud must be pretextual when there is
    no direct evidence of voter fraud in the legislative record. In
    Crawford, the Court rejected the argument that actual
    evidence of voter fraud was needed to justify the State’s
    decision to enact prophylactic measures to prevent such
    fraud. 
    Crawford, 553 U.S. at 195
    –96 . There, the Court
    upheld an Indiana statute requiring in-person voters to present
    government-issued photo identification in the face of a
    constitutional challenge. 
    Id. at 185.
    Although “[t]he record
    contain[ed] no evidence of [voter] fraud actually occurring in
    Indiana at any time in its history,” the Supreme Court
    nonetheless determined that the State had a legitimate and
    important interest “in counting only the votes of eligible
    voters.” 
    Id. at 194,
    196; see also 
    id. at 195
    nn.11–13 (citing
    “fragrant examples of” voter fraud throughout history and in
    recent years). Given its interest in addressing its valid
    DNC V. HOBBS                        139
    concerns of voter fraud, Arizona was free to enact
    prophylactic measures even though no evidence of actual
    voter fraud was before the legislature. Yet the majority does
    not even mention Crawford, let alone grapple with its
    consequences on this case.
    And because no evidence of actual voter fraud is required
    to justify an anti-fraud prophylactic measure, the majority’s
    reasoning quickly collapses. The majority cites Senator
    Shooter’s “false and race-based allegations” and the “LaFaro
    video,” which the district court explained “showed
    surveillance footage of a man of apparent Hispanic heritage
    appearing to deliver early ballots” and “contained a narration
    of [i]nnuendos of illegality . . . [and] racially tinged and
    inaccurate commentary by . . . LaFaro.” DNC, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d
    at 876 (second, third, and fourth alterations in original).
    The majority contends that although “some members of the
    legislature who voted for H.B. 2023 had a sincere, though
    mistaken, non-race-based belief that there had been fraud in
    third-party ballot collection, and that the problem needed to
    be addressed,” a discriminatory purpose may be attributable
    to all of them as a matter of law because any sincere belief
    was “created by Senator Shooter’s false allegations and the
    ‘racially tinged’ LaFaro video.” Maj. Op. 99. The majority
    claims that these legislators were used as “cat’s paws” to
    “serve the discriminatory purposes of Senator Shooter,
    Republican Chair LaFaro, and their allies.” Maj. Op. 100.
    Yet, the majority’s reliance on such employment
    discrimination doctrine is misplaced because, unlike
    employers whose decision may be tainted by the
    discriminatory motives of a supervisor, each legislator is an
    independent actor, and bias of some cannot be attributed to all
    members. The very fact that some members had a sincere
    belief that voter fraud needed to be addressed is enough to
    140                    DNC V. HOBBS
    rebut the majority’s conclusion. To the contrary, the
    underlying allegations of voter fraud did not need to be true
    in order to justify the “legitimacy or importance of the State’s
    interest in counting only the votes of eligible voters.”
    
    Crawford, 553 U.S. at 196
    . And the majority provides no
    support for its inference of pretext where there is a sincere
    and legitimate interest in addressing a valid concern. Maj.
    Op. at 97–100. Instead, the majority accepts the district
    court’s finding that some legislators “had a sincere, non-race-
    based belief that there was fraud” that needed to be
    addressed. Nevertheless, unable to locate any discriminatory
    purpose, it simply attributes one to them using the
    inapplicable “cat’s paw doctrine.” Maj. Op. 99. Such
    argument demonstrates the extraordinary leap in logic the
    majority must make in order to justify its conclusion.
    Let me restate the obvious: we may reverse the district
    court’s intensely factual determination as to discriminatory
    intent only if we determine that such finding was clearly
    erroneous. Thus, even if the majority disagrees with the
    district court’s finding, it must demonstrate that the evidence
    was not “plausible in light of the record viewed in its
    entirety.” Bessemer 
    City, 470 U.S. at 574
    . Perhaps if the
    majority had reminded itself of our appellate standard, it
    would not have simply re-weighed the same evidence
    considered by the district court to arrive at its own findings
    on appeal.
    V
    The district court properly determined that neither
    Arizona’s out-of-precinct policy nor its ballot-collection
    policy violates § 2 of the Voting Rights Act and the Fifteenth
    DNC V. HOBBS                               141
    Amendment to the Constitution.9 In concluding otherwise,
    the majority misperceives the inquiry before us and fails to
    narrow the scope of its review, instead insisting on acting as
    a de novo trial court. That, of course, is not our role.
    I would therefore affirm the judgment of the district court
    and must respectfully dissent from the majority opinion.
    BYBEE, Circuit Judge, with whom O’SCANNLAIN,
    CLIFTON, and CALLAHAN, Circuit Judges, join,
    dissenting:
    The right to vote is the most fundamental of our political
    rights and the basis for our representative democracy. “No
    right is more precious” because it is a meta-right: it is the
    means by which we select “those who make the laws under
    which, as good citizens, we must live.” Wesberry v. Sanders,
    
    376 U.S. 1
    , 17 (1964). “Other rights, even the most basic, are
    illusory if the right to vote is undermined.” 
    Id. Almost as
    fundamental as the right to vote is the need for the electorate
    to have confidence in the rules by which elections are
    conducted.
    9
    Because the majority concludes that the OOP policy and the ballot-
    collection policy violate § 2 of the Voting Rights Act and the Fifteenth
    Amendment to the United States Constitution, it does not reach DNC’s
    claim that such policies also violate the First and Fourteenth Amendments
    to the United States Constitution. I will not belabor such claims here; for
    these purposes, it is sufficient to say that—for many of the reasons and
    based on much of the evidence cited above—I would also conclude that
    neither practice violates the First and Fourteenth Amendments.
    142                          DNC V. HOBBS
    I write separately to make a simple point: The Arizona
    rules challenged here are part of an “electoral process that is
    necessarily structured to maintain the integrity of the
    democratic system.” Burdick v. Takushi, 
    504 U.S. 428
    , 441
    (1992).1 The Constitution entrusts the “Times, Places and
    Manner of holding Elections” to state legislatures, subject to
    laws enacted by Congress to “make or alter such
    Regulations.” U.S. Const. art. I, § 4, cl. 1. “‘Times, Places,
    and Manner,’ . . . are ‘comprehensive words,’ which
    ‘embrace authority to provide a complete code for . . .
    elections.’” Arizona v. Inter Tribal Council of Ariz., Inc.,
    
    570 U.S. 1
    , 8–9 (2013) (quoting Smiley v. Holm, 
    285 U.S. 355
    , 366 (1932)); see Rucho v. Common Cause, 
    139 S. Ct. 2484
    , 2495 (2019).
    “[A]s a practical matter, there must be a
    substantial regulation of elections if they are
    to be fair and honest and if some sort of order,
    rather than chaos, is to accompany the
    democratic processes.” To achieve these
    necessary objectives, States have enacted
    comprehensive and sometimes complex
    election codes. Each provision of these
    schemes, whether it governs the registration
    and qualifications of voters, the selection and
    eligibility of candidates, or the voting process
    itself, inevitably affects—at least in some
    degree—the individual’s right to vote and his
    right to associate with others for political
    ends. Nevertheless, the State’s important
    1
    I join in full Judge O’Scannlain’s dissent. I write separately to place
    the majority’s decision today in context of the American democratic
    tradition.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         143
    regulatory interests are generally sufficient to
    justify reasonable, nondiscriminatory
    restrictions.
    Anderson v. Celebrezze, 
    460 U.S. 780
    , 788 (1983) (citation
    omitted) (quoting Storer v. Brown, 
    415 U.S. 724
    , 730
    (1974)).
    Time, place, and manner restrictions are fundamentally
    differently from provisions that affect the “Qualifications
    requisite for Electors,” U.S. Const. art. I, § 2, cl. 1, and state
    apportionments “according to their respective Numbers,” 
    id. art. I,
    § 2, cl. 3. The Constitution restricts with exactness the
    qualifications states may require of their voters. See 
    id. amend. XV,
    § 1 (“race, color, or previous condition of
    servitude”); amend. XIX (sex); amend. XXIV (“failure to pay
    any poll tax or other tax”); amend. XXVI (those “eighteen
    years of age or older, . . . on account of age”); Kramer v.
    Union Free Sch. Dist. No. 15, 
    395 U.S. 621
    (1969) (property
    ownership). Similarly, the constitutional imperative for one
    person, one vote demands that apportionment be subject to
    precision approaching “absolute population equality,”
    Karcher v. Daggett, 
    462 U.S. 725
    , 732 (1983), “as nearly as
    practicable,” Kirkpatrick v. Preisler, 
    394 U.S. 526
    , 531
    (1969).
    Time, place, and manner restrictions stand on different
    footing from status-based restraints on vote qualifications and
    legislative malapportionment. State requirements respecting
    when and where we vote and how ballots will be counted are
    “generally-applicable and evenhanded restrictions that protect
    the integrity and reliability of the electoral process itself.”
    
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 788
    n.9. By contrast, for example,
    “redistricting differs from other kinds of state decisionmaking
    144                         DNC V. HOBBS
    in that the legislature always is aware of race when it draws
    district lines, just as it is aware of age, economic status,
    religions and political persuasion, and a variety of other
    demographic factors.” Shaw v. Reno, 
    509 U.S. 630
    , 646
    (1993). Time, place, and manner restrictions are the rules of
    the game, announced in advance, so that all voters will know
    what they must do. Parties of all stripes should have an equal
    interest in rules that are both fair on their face and fairly
    administered.
    Two such rules are challenged here: the rule about how
    Arizona will count out-of-precinct votes (OOP) and the rule
    about who may file another person’s absentee ballot (H.B.
    2023). As rules of general applicability, they apply to all
    voters, without “account of race or color.” 52 U.S.C.
    § 10301(a).2 Rather than simply recognizing that Arizona has
    enacted neutral, color-blind rules, the majority has embraced
    the premise that § 2 of the VRA is violated when any
    minority voter appears to be adversely affected by Arizona’s
    election laws. Although the majority abjures this premise for
    now, claiming that it does “not need to go so far” as equating
    “the case of an individually targeted single minority voter
    who is denied the right to vote and the case where a facially
    neutral policy affects a single voter,” Maj. Op. at 45, its
    analysis necessarily rests on that premise. The majority has
    2
    In relevant part, § 2 of the Voting Rights Act provides that “[n]o
    voting qualification or prerequisite to voting or standard, practice, or
    procedure shall be imposed or applied by any State . . . in a manner which
    results in a denial or abridgement of the right of any citizen of the United
    States to vote on account of race or color.” 52 U.S.C. § 10301(a). A
    violation of § 2(a) may be shown “based on the totality of the
    circumstances . . . [if] the political processes leading to nomination or
    election in the State . . . are not equally open to participation by members
    of a class of citizens [on account of race or color].” 
    Id. § 10301(b).
                           DNC V. HOBBS                         145
    no limiting principle for identifying a de minimis effect in a
    facially neutral time, place, or manner rule. The premise
    finds its clearest expression in the Fourth Circuit’s opinion in
    League of Women Voters of N.C. v. North Carolina, 
    769 F.3d 224
    , 244 (4th Cir. 2014) (emphasis added): “[W]hat matters
    for purposes of Section 2 is not how many minority voters are
    being denied equal electoral opportunities but simply that
    ‘any’ minority voter is being denied equal electoral
    opportunities.” See Maj. Op. at 41–42, 45–46, 107 (relying
    on League of Women Voters). Such a premise insists on a
    precision that we have never demanded before.
    By contrast, the Supreme Court explained that following
    City of Mobile v. Bolden, 
    446 U.S. 55
    (1980), “Congress
    substantially revised § 2 to make clear that a violation could
    be proved by showing discriminatory effect alone and to
    establish as the relevant legal standard the ‘results test,’
    applied . . . in White v. Regester, 
    412 U.S. 755
    (1973).”
    Thornburg v. Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    , 35 (1986). Yet in White,
    the Court made clear that it “did not hold . . . that any
    deviations from absolute equality, however small, must be
    justified to the satisfaction of the judiciary to avoid
    invalidation under the Equal Protection 
    Clause.” 412 U.S. at 763
    –64. Rather, the Court recognized that any rule in an
    election scheme might suffer “relatively minor population
    deviations . . . . ‘based on legitimate considerations incident
    to the effectuation of a rational state policy.’” 
    Id. at 764
    (quoting Reynolds v. Sims, 
    377 U.S. 533
    , 579 (1964)).
    A “rational state policy” surely includes the need for a
    consistent, neutral set of time, place, and manner rules. The
    majority’s reading of the Voting Rights Act turns § 2 into a
    “one-minority-vote-veto rule” that may undo any number of
    time, place, and manner rules. It is entirely results-bound, so
    146                    DNC V. HOBBS
    much so that under the majority’s reading of the Voting
    Rights Act, the same rules the majority strikes down in
    Arizona may be perfectly valid in every other state, even
    states within our circuit. It all depends on the numbers.
    Indeed, so diaphonous is the majority’s holding, that it may
    be a temporary rule for Arizona. If Arizona were to reenact
    these provisions again in, say, 2024, the numbers might come
    out differently and the OOP and ballot collection rules would
    be lawful once again.
    The two Arizona rules at issue here—OOP and H.B.
    2023—are rules of general applicability, just like the rules
    governing voting on the day of the election, registering with
    the Secretary of State, and bringing identification with you.
    Such “‘evenhanded restrictions that protect the integrity and
    reliability of the electoral process itself’ are not invidious.”
    Crawford v. Marion Cty. Election Bd., 
    553 U.S. 181
    , 189–90
    (2008) (plurality opinion) (quoting 
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 788
    n.9). Both rules the majority strikes down today have widely-
    held, well-recognized—even distinguished—pedigrees. As
    I show in Part I, the OOP is a long-standing rule that remains
    in place in a majority of American jurisdictions. The rule the
    majority prefers is a minority rule in the United States and,
    more importantly, disregards Arizona’s interest in
    encouraging voting in local elections and, in application, may
    actually disadvantage minority voters. In Part II, I
    demonstrate that, although H.B. 2023 is of more recent
    vintage, similar rules are in place in other American
    jurisdictions, and H.R. 2023 follows carefully the
    recommendation of a bi-partisan commission on the integrity
    of American elections.
    DNC V. HOBBS                          147
    I
    It has long been a feature of American democracy that, on
    election day, voters must vote in person at an assigned polling
    venue—an election precinct.
    [I]t is the well established practice in nearly
    every state to divide the county or city into a
    number of geographical districts for the
    purpose of holding elections. Each elector is
    required to vote at the polling place of his
    own precinct, which by custom is ordinarily
    located within the precinct, and, in cities,
    within a few blocks of his residence.
    Joseph P. Harris, Election Administration in the United States
    206–07 (1934). Like most American jurisdictions, Arizona’s
    election rules require a non-absentee voter’s personal
    presence at the polling place. Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-411(A)
    (“The broad of supervisors of each county . . . shall establish
    a convenient number of election precincts in the county and
    define the boundaries of the precincts.”). The reasons for
    such a venue rule are
    significant and numerous: it caps the number
    of voters attempting to vote in the same place
    on election day; it allows each precinct ballot
    to list all of the votes a citizen may cast for all
    pertinent federal, state, and local elections,
    referenda, initiatives, and levies; it allows
    each precinct ballot to list only those votes a
    citizen may cast, making ballots less
    confusing; it makes it easier for election
    officials to monitor votes and prevent election
    148                         DNC V. HOBBS
    fraud; and generally puts polling places in
    closer proximity to voter residences.
    Sandusky Cty. Democratic Party v. Blackwell, 
    387 F.3d 565
    ,
    569 (6th Cir. 2004).3 Precincts help to secure the orderly
    administration of elections, which then assures all voters of
    the integrity of the election.
    A
    Arizona’s out of precinct rule (OOP) is a standard feature
    of American democracy. Under Arizona’s election code,
    3
    “One of the major voting innovations in certain states was the
    increase in the number of polling places.” Robert J. Dinkin, Voting in
    Revolutionary America: A Study of Elections in the Original Thirteen
    States, 1776–1789, at 96 (1982). Among the states, New York led the
    way, “enacting a law in 1778 which stated that all future elections should
    be held ‘not by counties but by boroughs, towns, manors, districts, and
    precincts.’” 
    Id. at 97
    (quoting Laws of New York, sess. 1, chap. 16
    (1778)). In early America, polling places were located where the people
    were:
    voting . . . in barns, private homes, country stores, and
    churches—almost anything that could separate voters
    from the election officials and the ballot boxes they
    tended. On the frontier, where buildings were even
    harder to find, votes were sometimes cast in sodhouse
    saloons, sutler stores near army forts, the front porches
    of adobe houses, and temporary lean-tos thrown
    together at desolate desert crossroads. In the larger
    cities, fire stations, warehouses, and livery stables were
    commonly used. One of the most common venues was
    liquor establishments. . . . Such an arrangement made
    an election noisy and, sometimes, violent.
    Richard Franklin Bensel, The American Ballot Box in the Mid-Nineteenth
    Century 9 (2004).
    DNC V. HOBBS                               149
    “[n]o person shall be permitted to vote unless such person’s
    name appears as a qualified elector in both the general county
    register and in the precinct register.” Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-
    122. The election code provides extensive instructions for
    electors who have changed their residence or whose name
    does not appear on the precinct register; if there is any
    question of the elector’s eligibility to vote in that precinct,
    Arizona authorizes the filing of a provisional ballot. See, e.g.,
    Ariz. Rev. Stat. §§ 16-135, 16-583, 16-584, 16-592.
    There is nothing unusual about Arizona’s OOP rule.4
    Although there are variations in the way the rule is
    formulated, by my count, twenty-six states, the District of
    Columbia, and three U.S. territories disqualify ballots cast in
    the wrong precinct.5 These states represent every region of
    the country: The Northeast (Connecticut, Vermont), the mid-
    Atlantic (Delaware, District of Columbia, West Virginia), the
    4
    For many years, a voter was not even permitted to cast a provisional
    ballot in a precinct other than her own. See Harris, Election
    Administration in the United States, at 287–88. The Help America Vote
    Act (HAVA) now requires states to permit voters to cast a provisional
    ballot. 52 U.S.C. § 21082(a). HAVA, however, does not affect a state’s
    rules about how to process a provisional ballot. It does provide that states
    must create a toll-free number that “any individual who casts a provisional
    ballot may access to discover whether the vote of that individual was
    counted, and, if the vote was not counted, the reasons that the vote was not
    counted.” 52 U.S.C. § 21082(a)(5)(B); see 
    Blackwell, 387 F.3d at 576
    (“HAVA is quintessentially about being able to cast a provisional
    ballot. . . . [B]ut the ultimate legality of the vote cast provisionally is
    generally a matter of state law.”).
    5
    I have listed all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and U.S.
    territories, with relevant citations to their treatment of out of precinct
    votes, in Appendix A. In Appendix B, I have categorized the jurisdictions
    by rule.
    150                         DNC V. HOBBS
    South (Alabama, Florida, Kentucky, Mississippi, South
    Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia, Virgin Islands), the mid-West
    (Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nebraska, South
    Dakota, Wisconsin), the Southwest (Arizona, Oklahoma,
    Texas), the Mountain States (Montana, Wyoming), and the
    West (American Samoa, Hawaii, Nevada, Northern Mariana
    Islands). Twenty states and two territories will count out of
    precinct ballots, although the states are not uniform in what
    they will count.6 They also represent a broad spectrum of the
    country: The Northeast (Maine, Massachusetts, New York,
    Rhode Island), the mid-Atlantic (Maryland, New Jersey,
    Pennsylvania), the South (Arkansas, Louisiana, North
    Carolina, Georgia, Puerto Rico), the mid-West (Ohio,
    Kansas), the Southwest (New Mexico), the Mountain States
    (Colorado, Utah), and the West (Alaska, California, Guam,
    Oregon, Washington).7
    Nowhere in its discussion of the “totality of the
    circumstances” has the majority considered that Arizona’s
    OOP provision is a widely held time, place, or manner rule.
    It is not a redistricting plan, see Cooper v. Harris, 
    137 S. Ct. 1455
    (2017); League of United Latin Am. Citizens v. Perry,
    
    548 U.S. 399
    (2006); Shaw v. Reno, 
    509 U.S. 630
    (1993); a
    multimember district, see Chisom v. Roemer, 
    501 U.S. 380
    (1991); Gingles, 
    478 U.S. 30
    ; or an at-large system, see
    6
    For example, five states will count an out-of-precinct vote, but only
    if the ballot is filed in the voter’s county (Kansas, New Mexico,
    Pennsylvania, Utah) or town (Massachusetts). Louisiana and Rhode
    Island will only count votes for federal office. Puerto Rico will count only
    votes for Governor and Resident Commissioner.
    7
    Four states (Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Dakota) are
    not accounted for in either list because they allow same-day registration
    and do not use provisional ballots.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        151
    Rogers v. Lodge, 
    458 U.S. 613
    (1982).                   Those
    “circumstances” are as unique as a fingerprint, subject to
    manipulation, and require “an intensely local appraisal” of the
    state’s plan. 
    Gingles, 478 U.S. at 78
    (internal quotation
    marks and citation omitted). Arizona’s OOP applies
    statewide; it is not a unique rule, but a traditional rule,
    common to the majority of American states. The OOP rule,
    as a rule of general applicability, is part of a “political
    process[] . . . equally open to participation” by all Arizona
    voters. 52 U.S.C. § 10301(b).
    B
    The majority asserts that “counting or partially counting
    OOP ballots would [not] threaten the integrity of Arizona’s
    precinct-based system.” Maj. Op. at 78. Effectively, the
    majority holds that Arizona must abandon its traditional
    polling venue rules and accept the ballots of voters who cast
    their ballot in the wrong precinct, at least for national and
    state-wide offices. 
    Id. at 76–78
    (citing the rules of California,
    Utah, and New Mexico as an example of states partially
    counting OOP ballots). Under the majority’s preferred
    scheme, Arizona must count all votes for offices that are not
    precinct dependent. As to the remainder of the ballot,
    Arizona may—in accordance with its traditional rule—
    disqualify the ballot for all offices for which the political
    geography of the precinct matters. The majority has failed to
    take into account that the rule it prefers has its own
    consequences, including adverse consequences for minority
    voters.
    Let’s review an example to consider the unintended
    consequences of the majority’s haste. Under Arizona’s
    traditional rules, the state would disqualify the ballot of a
    152                    DNC V. HOBBS
    voter from Tucson who votes in any precinct other than his
    assigned precinct. Under the majority’s new rule, a voter
    from Tucson may cross precinct lines and vote in any precinct
    in Arizona—for instance, in Phoenix. His cross-precinct
    ballot will be counted for those offices which are common to
    ballots in his precinct-in-law in Tucson and his new precinct-
    in-fact in Phoenix—such offices would include the
    presidency, the U.S. Senate, and any statewide offices. His
    ballot will be disqualified, however, for all state and local
    offices defined by geographic boundaries that are not
    common to the two precincts—for example, the U.S. House
    of Representatives, the state legislature, and municipal offices
    such as mayor, city council, and school board.
    The majority’s rule will skew future elections in Arizona
    in two predictable ways. First, it overvalues national
    elections. Ballots for the presidency, the U.S. Senate, and
    any state offices that would otherwise be disqualified must be
    counted. Voters—whether intentionally or carelessly—may
    vote with impunity in the wrong precinct, knowing that their
    vote will count for the national and statewide offices.
    Second, it undervalues local elections. Those same
    ballots will not be counted toward those federal, state, and
    local offices that are defined by geographic boundaries and
    for which the voters from the outside precinct are not eligible.
    Non-conscientious voters—voters who care more about a
    national or a statewide race than the local races—are
    permitted to vote wherever they please, while conscientious
    voters—those concerned with all the offices on the
    ballot—are burdened by the requirement that they find their
    way to their proper precinct. And if the conscientious voter
    can’t get to the polling place on time, he will have cast no
    ballot for any office, national, state, or local.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        153
    The net result is that the majority has lowered the cost to
    voters of determining where they are supposed to vote, but
    only as to presidential, U.S. Senate, and statewide races. As
    the majority no doubt intends, persons who didn’t know or
    were confused about their polling place will have their vote
    counted, but only in select races. But as the majority may not
    have thought through, anyone in Arizona, including people
    who know where they are supposed to vote in an election (but
    for one reason or another would not have otherwise voted
    because it was inconvenient or impossible to vote at their
    home precinct), will also be able to vote—but again, only in
    select races. Arizona can thus expect more votes in the
    presidential, senatorial, and state races than would be cast
    under its traditional rules. I suppose that in theory that’s a
    good thing. What the majority has not counted on is the
    effect its order will have on the races that depend on
    geographic boundaries within Arizona: congressional, state-
    legislative, and local offices. When voters do not go to their
    local precincts to vote, they cannot vote in those races.
    Voters who do not take the time to determine their
    appropriate precinct—for whatever reason—and vote out of
    precinct have disenfranchised themselves with respect to the
    local races. That’s a bad thing.
    Arizona’s longstanding, neutral rule gives voters an
    incentive to figure out where their polling place is, which, in
    turn, encourages voters to cast ballots in national, state, and
    local elections. In effect, Arizona has stapled national and
    statewide elections to other state and local elections. The
    opportunity to vote in any one race is the opportunity to vote
    in all races. It’s strong medicine, but Arizona’s rule is a self-
    protective rule; it helps encourage voting and, presumably,
    interest in local elections. The majority’s preferred rule gives
    voters an incentive to vote wherever it is convenient for them
    154                    DNC V. HOBBS
    which increases the likelihood they will vote in certain
    national and statewide races, but decreases the likelihood they
    will vote in other state and local races. It places a burden on
    voters who wish to exercise their right to vote on all matters
    to which they are entitled, a burden that simply would not
    exist for the less-engaged voter. The majority’s rule
    contradicts our most basic principles of federalism by
    deeming elections for national and statewide offices more
    important than those for lesser offices.
    The majority’s concern is based on the fact that voters
    who vote in the wrong precinct are more likely to be
    minorities. Maj. Op. at 42–44. If that fact holds true in the
    future—and it may not because, as I have explained, any
    voter in Arizona (including those who know where to vote)
    may take advantage of the majority’s new rule—then
    minority ballots will be underrepresented in the local races.
    Under the majority’s preferred scheme, it is thus likely that
    more minorities will fail to vote in local elections—elections
    that most directly affect the daily lives of ordinary citizens,
    and often provide the first platform by which citizen-
    candidates, not endowed with personal wealth or name
    recognition, seek on the path to obtaining higher office. In
    any event, the court has just put a big thumb on the scale of
    the Arizona elections—national, state, and local—with
    unclear results.
    These concerns are magnified when we consider the
    relatively small number of OOP ballots. See Democratic
    Nat’l Comm. v. Reagan, 
    329 F. Supp. 3d 824
    , 873 (D. Ariz.
    2018). It is more likely that these ballots would make a
    difference in a local election than in a national or statewide
    election. Arizona’s rule encourages its OOP voters—white,
    African-American, Hispanic, or other—to vote in the correct
    DNC V. HOBBS                                155
    precinct. Under Arizona’s current OOP rule, a voter, having
    gone to the trouble of going to a precinct to vote in person
    and suffering the indignity of having to fill out a provisional
    ballot, is less likely to make the same mistake the next year.8
    A voter who has had a ballot disqualified is more likely to
    figure out the correct precinct next time—or, better yet, sign
    up for the convenience of early voting, a measure that avoids
    the conundrum of OOP altogether.9 The voter who only votes
    8
    The Majority dismisses this point by highlighting how Arizona has
    frequently changed polling places in some localities. Maj. Op. at 111
    (referring to Arizona’s high rate of OOP voting). But there is no evidence
    in the record that the same voters’s ballots are excluded as OOP year after
    year. My point is that a voter who has had her ballot excluded as OOP is
    more likely to exercise greater care in finding the right polling location
    next time.
    9
    The Majority worries that OOP voters may never come to know that
    their votes were in fact rejected and, hence, will never learn from the
    situation. Maj. Op. at 110. Whatever the cause for the Majority’s
    concern, Arizona’s statutory law is not to blame. Arizona law specifically
    requires county recorders to establish “a method of notifying the
    provisional ballot voter at no cost to the voter whether the voter’s ballot
    was verified and counted and, if not counted, the reason for not counting
    the ballot.” Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-584(F) (2019). Thus, voters should
    have the opportunity to find out whether their vote was counted.
    Further, to the extent that voters inadvertently vote in the wrong
    precinct, that is not a failing of Arizona law. Instead, the law requires that
    voters’ names be checked on the precinct register. If a voter’s name does
    not appear on the register, then the address is checked to confirm that the
    voter resides within that jurisdiction. 
    Id. § 16-
    584(B). Once the address
    is confirmed to be in the precinct or the voter affirms in writing that the
    voter is eligible to vote in that jurisdiction, the voter “shall be allowed to
    vote a provisional ballot.” 
    Id. Accordingly, under
    Arizona law, no voter
    should inadvertently vote at the wrong precinct without some indication
    that something is amiss.
    156                     DNC V. HOBBS
    where it is convenient has disenfranchised himself from local
    elections.
    States such as California, Utah, and New Mexico have
    made the same choice the majority forces on Arizona. Those
    states may or may not have made the calculus I have set out
    here and they may or may not have measured the costs and
    benefits of their new rule; it’s theirs to experiment with.
    They may conclude that the new rule is the right one; they
    may not. And if any of those states decides that the count-
    the-ballots-partially rule is not the best rule, those states will
    be free to adopt a different rule, including the OOP rule the
    majority strikes down today. After today’s decision, Arizona
    has no such recourse.
    II
    H.B. 2023 presents a different set of considerations.
    There is no constitutional or federal statutory right to vote by
    absentee ballot. See McDonald v. Bd. of Election Comm’rs
    of Chi., 
    394 U.S. 802
    , 807–08 (1969) (“It is thus not the right
    to vote that is at stake here but a claimed right to receive
    absentee ballots. . . . [T]he absentee statutes, which are
    designed to make voting more available to some groups who
    cannot easily get to the polls, do not themselves deny . . . the
    exercise of the franchise . . . .”); see also 
    Crawford, 553 U.S. at 209
    (Scalia, J., concurring in the judgment) (“That the
    State accommodates some voters by permitting (not
    requiring) the casting of absentee or provisional ballots, is an
    indulgence—not a constitutional imperative that falls short of
    what is required.”); Griffin v. Roupas, 
    385 F.3d 1128
    , 1130
    (7th Cir. 2004) (rejecting the claim that there is “a blanket
    right of registered voters to vote by absentee ballot” because
    “it is obvious that a federal court is not going to decree
    DNC V. HOBBS                             157
    weekend voting, multi-day voting, all-mail voting, or Internet
    voting”).10 Nevertheless, if a state is going to offer absentee
    ballots, it must do so on an equal basis. Arizona’s absentee
    ballot rule, like its OOP rule, is a neutral time, place, or
    manner provision to help ensure the integrity of the absentee
    voting process. In fact, what is at issue here is not the right
    of Arizona voters to obtain and return an absentee ballot, but
    the question of who can physically return the ballot.
    A
    H.B. 2023 provides that “[a] person who knowingly
    collects voted or unvoted early ballots from another person is
    guilty of a class 6 felony.” Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-
    1005(H) (codifying H.B. 2023). The law does not apply to
    three classes of persons: (1) “[a]n election official,” (2) “a
    United States postal service worker or any other person who
    is allowed by law to transmit United States mail,” and (3) “[a]
    10
    “The exercise of a public franchise by proxy was illegal at common
    law.” Cortlandt F. Bishop, History of Elections in the American Colonies
    129 (1893). The Colonies experimented with proxy votes, with varying
    degrees of success. Proxy voting was not a success in at least one colony.
    A 1683 letter to the Governor of South Carolina warned:
    Wee are informed that there are many undue practices
    in the choyce of members of Parlmt, and that men are
    admitted to bring papers for others and put in their
    votes for them, wh is utterly illegal & contrary to the
    custome of Parliaments & will in time, if suffered, be
    very mischeevious: you are therefore to take care that
    such practices be not suffered for the future, but every
    man must deliver his own vote & noe man suffered to
    bring the votes of another . . . .
    
    Id. at 139
    (spelling in original) (citation omitted).
    158                        DNC V. HOBBS
    family member, household member or caregiver of the voter.”
    
    Id. § 16-
    1005(H)–(I)(2).
    The Arizona provision is substantially similar to the laws
    in effect in many other states. In Indiana, for example, it is a
    felony for anyone to collect a voter’s absentee ballot, with
    exceptions for members of the voter’s household, the voter’s
    designated attorney in fact, certain election officials, and mail
    carriers. Ind. Code § 3-14-2-16(4). Connecticut also restricts
    ballot collection, permitting only the voter, a designee of an
    ill or disabled voter, or the voter’s immediate family
    members to mail or return an absentee ballot. Conn. Gen.
    Stat. § 9-140b(a). New Mexico likewise permits only the
    voter, a member of the voter’s immediate family, or the
    voter’s caregiver to mail or return an absentee ballot. N.M.
    Stat. Ann. § 1-6-10.1. At least seven other states (Georgia,
    Missouri, Nevada, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Ohio, and
    Texas) similarly restrict who can personally deliver an
    absentee ballot to a voting location. Ga. Code Ann. § 21-2-
    385(a) (limiting who may personally deliver an absentee
    ballot to designees of ill or disabled voters or family
    members); Mo. Rev. Stat. § 115.291(2) (restricting who can
    personally deliver an absentee ballot); Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann.
    § 293.330(4) (making it a felony for anyone other than the
    voter or the voter’s family member to return an absentee
    ballot); Okla. Stat. tit. 26, § 14-108(C) (voter delivering a
    ballot must provide proof of identity); Ohio Rev. Code Ann.
    § 3509.05(A) (limiting who may personally deliver an absent
    voter’s ballot); Tex. Elec. Code Ann. § 86.006(a) (permitting
    only the voter to personally deliver the ballot).11
    11
    Until recently, two other states had similar provisions on the books.
    California formerly limited who could return mail ballots to the voter’s
    family or those living in the same household. Compare Cal. Elec. Code
    DNC V. HOBBS                               159
    Other states are somewhat less restrictive than Arizona
    because they permit a broader range of people to collect early
    ballots from voters but restrict how many ballots any one
    person can collect and return. Colorado forbids anyone from
    collecting more than ten ballots. Colo. Rev. Stat. § 1-7.5-
    107(4)(b). North Dakota prohibits anyone from collecting
    more than four ballots, N.D. Cent. Code § 16.1-07-08(1);
    New Jersey, N.J. Stat. Ann. § 19:63-4(a), and Minnesota,
    Minn. Stat. Ann. § 203B.08 sbd. 1, three; Arkansas, Ark.
    Code Ann. § 7-5-403(a)(1), Nebraska, Neb. Rev. Stat. § 32-
    943(2), and West Virginia, W. Va. Code § 3-3-5(k), two.
    South Dakota prohibits anyone from collecting more than one
    ballot without notifying “the person in charge of the election
    of all voters for whom he is a messenger.” S.D. Codified
    Laws § 12-19-2.2.
    Still other states have adopted slightly different
    restrictions on who may collect early ballots. California,
    Maine, and North Dakota, for example, make it illegal to
    collect an absentee ballot for compensation. Cal. Elec. Code
    § 3017(e)(1); Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 21-A, § 791(2)(A)
    (making it a crime to receive compensation for collecting
    absentee ballots); N.D. Cent. Code § 16.1-07-08(1)
    (prohibiting a person from receiving compensation for acting
    as an agent for an elector). Florida and Texas make it a crime
    to receive compensation for collecting certain numbers of
    § 3017(a)(2) (West 2019), with Cal. Elec. Code § 3017(a) (West 2015).
    It only amended its law in 2016. 2016 Cal. Legis. Serv. ch. 820 (West).
    Illinois also used to make it a felony for anyone but the voter, his or her
    family, or certain licensed delivery companies to mail or deliver an
    absentee ballot. 10 Ill. Comp. Stat. Ann. 5/19-6 (1996); 10 Ill. Comp.
    Stat. 5/29-20(4). Illinois amended that provision in 2015 to let voters
    authorize others to mail or deliver their ballots. 10 Ill. Comp. Stat. Ann.
    5/19-6 (2015).
    160                     DNC V. HOBBS
    ballots. Fla. Stat. Ann. § 104.0616(2) (making it a
    misdemeanor to receive compensation for collecting more
    than two vote-by-mail ballots); Tex. Elec. Code Ann.
    § 86.0052(a)(1) (criminalizing compensation schemes based
    on the number of ballots collected for mailing).
    Some of these laws are stated as a restriction on how the
    early voter may return a ballot. In those states, the voter risks
    having his vote disqualified. See, e.g., Wrinn v. Dunleavy,
    
    440 A.2d 261
    , 272 (Conn. 1982) (disqualifying ballots and
    ordering a new primary election when an unauthorized
    individual mailed absentee ballots). In other states, as in
    Arizona, the statute penalizes the person collecting the ballot.
    See Ind. Code Ann. § 3-14-2-16 (making it a felony
    knowingly to receive a ballot from a voter); Nev. Rev. Stat.
    Ann. § 293.330(4) (making it a felony for unauthorized
    persons to return an absentee ballot); Tex. Elec. Code Ann.
    § 86.006(f)–(g) (making it a crime for an unauthorized person
    to possess an official ballot); see also Murphy v. State,
    
    837 N.E.2d 591
    , 594–96 (Ind. Ct. App. 2005) (affirming a
    denial of a motion to dismiss a charge for unauthorized
    receipt of a ballot from an absentee voter); People v.
    Deganutti, 
    810 N.E.2d 191
    , 198 (Ill. App. Ct. 2004)
    (affirming conviction for absentee ballot violation). In those
    states, the ballot, even if collected improperly, may be valid.
    See In re Election of Member of Rock Hill Bd. of Educ.,
    
    669 N.E.2d 1116
    , 1122–23 (Ohio 1996) (holding that a ballot
    will not be disqualified for a technical error).
    DNC V. HOBBS                                161
    In sum, although states have adopted a variety of rules,
    Arizona’s ballot collection rule is fully consonant with the
    broad range of rules throughout the United States.12
    B
    Even more striking than the number of other states with
    similar provision is that H.B. 2023 follows precisely the
    recommendation of the bi-partisan Carter-Baker Commission
    on Federal Election Reform.13 The Carter-Baker Commission
    found:
    Absentee ballots remain the largest source of
    potential voter fraud. . . . Absentee balloting is
    vulnerable to abuse in several ways: . . .
    Citizens who vote at home, at nursing homes,
    at the workplace, or in church are more
    susceptible to pressure, overt and subtle, or to
    intimidation. Vote buying schemes are far
    more difficult to detect when citizens vote by
    mail. States therefore should reduce the risks
    of fraud and abuse in absentee voting by
    prohibiting “third-party” organizations,
    12
    For context, Appendix C provides the relevant provisions of the
    laws from all fifty states, the District of Columbia, and the U.S. territories
    regarding the collection and mailing of absentee ballots.
    13
    The Commission on Federal Election Reform was organized by
    American University’s Center for Democracy and Election Management
    and supported by the Carnegie Corporation of New York, The Ford
    Foundation, the John S. and James L. Knight Foundation, and the
    Omidyar Network. It was co-chaired by former President Jimmy Carter
    and former Secretary of State James Baker.
    162                    DNC V. HOBBS
    candidates, and political party activists from
    handling absentee ballots.
    Comm’n on Fed. Elections Reform, Building Confidence in
    U.S. Elections 46 (2005) (“Building Confidence”) (footnote
    omitted). The Carter-Baker Commission recommended that
    “States . . . should reduce the risks of fraud and abuse in
    absentee voting by prohibiting ‘third-party’ organizations,
    candidates, and political party activists from handling
    absentee ballots.” 
    Id. It made
    a formal recommendation:
    State and local jurisdictions should
    prohibit a person from handling absentee
    ballots other than the voter, an acknowledged
    family member, the U.S. Postal Service or
    other legitimate shipper, or election officials.
    The practice in some states of allowing
    candidates or party workers to pick up and
    deliver absentee ballots should be eliminated.
    
    Id. at 47
    (Recommendation 5.2.1).
    The Carter-Baker Commission recommended that states
    limit the persons, other than the voter, who handle or collect
    absentee ballots to three classes of persons: (1) family
    members, (2) employees of the U.S. Postal Service or another
    recognized shipper, and (3) election officials. H.B. 2013
    allows two classes of persons to collect absentee ballots:
    (1) election officials and (2) employees of the U.S. Postal
    Service “or any other person who is allowed by law to
    transmit United States mail.” Ariz. Rev. Stat. § 16-1005(H).
    H.B. 2023 also provides that the prior restriction on collection
    of ballots does not apply to “[a] family member, household
    member or caregiver of the voter.” 
    Id. § 16-
    1005(I)(2). With
    DNC V. HOBBS                         163
    respect to election officials and mail delivery workers,
    Arizona tracks exactly the recommendation from the
    Commission. With respect to family, however, Arizona’s
    provision is more generous than the Carter-Baker
    Commission’s recommendation. Whereas the Commission
    recommended that only family members be permitted to
    handled a voter’s absentee ballot, Arizona expanded the class
    of absentee ballot handlers to “household member[s]” and
    “caregiver[s].”
    I don’t see how Arizona can be said to have violated the
    VRA when it followed bipartisan recommendations for
    election reform in an area the Carter-Baker Commission
    found to be fraught with the risk of voter fraud. Nothing
    could be more damaging to confidence in our elections than
    fraud at the ballot box. And there is evidence that there is
    voter fraud in the collecting of absentee ballots. As the
    Seventh Circuit described it: “Voting fraud is a serious
    problem in U.S. elections generally . . . and it is facilitated by
    absentee voting. . . . [A]bsentee voting is to voting in person
    as a take-home exam is to a proctored one.” 
    Griffin, 385 F.3d at 1130
    –31; see also 
    Wrinn, 440 A.2d at 270
    (“[T]here is
    considerable room for fraud in absentee voting and . . . a
    failure to comply with the regulatory provision governing
    absentee voting increases the opportunity for fraud.” (citation
    omitted)); Qualkinbush v. Skubisz, 
    826 N.E.2d 1181
    , 1197
    (Ill. App. Ct. 2004) (“[T]he integrity of a vote is even more
    susceptible to influence and manipulation when done by
    absentee ballot.”); Adam Liptak, Error and Fraud at Issue as
    Absentee Voting Rises, N.Y. Times (Oct. 6, 2012),
    164                        DNC V. HOBBS
    http://nyti.ms/QUbcrg (discussing a variety of problems in
    states).14
    Organized absentee ballot fraud of sufficient scope to
    corrupt an election is no doomsday hypothetical: it happened
    as recently as 2018 in North Carolina. In the state’s Ninth
    Congressional District, over 282,000 voters cast ballots,
    either in person or absentee. See Brief of Dan McCready at 7,
    In re Investigation of Election Irregularities Affecting Ctys.
    Within the 9th Cong. Dist. (N.C. State Bd. of Elections Feb.
    12, 2019) [hereinafter McCready Br.]. North Carolina
    permits “[a]ny qualified voter” in the state to vote by
    absentee ballot. N.C. Gen. Stat. § 163A-1295. However, like
    Arizona, the state adheres to the Commission’s
    recommendations and restricts the categories of persons who
    may collect a voter’s absentee ballot. It is a Class I felony in
    North Carolina for “any person except the voter’s near
    relative or the voter’s verifiable legal guardian to assist the
    voter to vote an absentee ballot.” 
    Id. § 163A-1298.
    In last year’s election in the Ninth Congressional District,
    evidence suggested that a political activist hired by the
    Republican nominee paid employees to collect absentee
    ballots—possibly more than 1,000—from voters in violation
    of § 163A-1298. See Indictment, State v. Dowless,
    No. 19CRS001934 (N.C. Super. Ct. July 30, 2019);
    McCready Br. at app. 2–3. An employee of the suspected
    14
    Pressure on absentee voters has long been noted. See Harris,
    Election Administration in the United States, at 302 (“The amount of
    intimidation now exercised by the precinct captain in many sections of
    large cities is very great; with mail voting it would be enormously
    increased. The overbearing and dominant precinct captain would insist
    upon seeing how each voter under obligation to him had marked his ballot,
    and the voter would have no protection against such tactics.”).
    DNC V. HOBBS                        165
    activist testified that she personally collected about three
    dozen ballots. See Transcript of Evidentiary Hearing at 150,
    In re Investigation of Election Irregularities Affecting Ctys.
    Within the 9th Cong. Dist. (N.C. State Bd. of Elections Feb.
    18, 2019). She also helped fill in about five or ten
    incomplete, unsealed ballots in favor of Republican
    candidates. 
    Id. at 67,
    99, 152–53. The ballots were kept at
    the activist’s home and office for days or longer before they
    were turned in. 
    Id. at 69.
    A voter testified that she turned
    over her blank ballot to the activist’s employees in an
    unsealed envelope, trusting that the activist would make a
    good decision for her. 
    Id. at 207–08,
    214–15.
    This coordinated ballot fraud led the state Board of
    Elections to invalidate the results of the election, which had
    been decided by only 905 votes—fewer than the amount of
    suspected fraudulent ballots. Order at 10, 44–45, In re
    Investigation of Election Irregularities Affecting Ctys. Within
    the 9th Cong. Dist. (N.C. State Bd. of Elections Mar. 13,
    2019). The residents of the district—some 778,447
    Americans—were thus unrepresented in the House of
    Representatives for the better part of a year. Perhaps the
    more devastating injury will be the damage this episode does
    to North Carolinians’ confidence in their election system.
    The majority acknowledges that the Democratic Party
    disproportionately benefits from get-out-the-vote efforts by
    collecting mail-in ballots. See, e.g., Maj. Op. at 83 (quoting
    
    Reagan, 329 F. Supp. 3d at 870
    ). Further, the majority
    acknowledges that Democratic activists have often led such
    collection efforts. 
    Id. Yet the
    experience of North Carolina
    with Republican activists shows starkly the inherent danger
    to allowing political operatives to conduct collections of
    mail-in ballots. Arizona is well within its right to look at the
    166                    DNC V. HOBBS
    perils endured by its sister states and enact prophylactic
    measures to curtail any similar schemes. By prohibiting
    overtly political operatives and activists from playing a role
    in the ballot-collection process, Arizona mitigates this risk.
    And the State’s well-acknowledged past sins should not
    prevent it from using every available avenue to keep safe the
    public’s trust in the integrity of electoral outcomes.
    Indeed, Arizona does not have to wait until it has proof
    positive that its elections have been tainted by absentee ballot
    fraud before it may enact neutral rules. “Legislatures . . .
    should be permitted to respond to potential deficiencies in the
    electoral process with foresight rather than reactively.”
    Munro v. Socialist Workers Party, 
    479 U.S. 189
    , 195 (1986).
    In Crawford, the Supreme Court quoted with approval the
    Carter-Baker Commission:
    There is no evidence of extensive fraud in
    U.S. elections or of multiple voting, but both
    occur, and it could affect the outcome of a
    close election. The electoral system cannot
    inspire public confidence if no safeguards
    exist to deter or detect fraud or to confirm the
    identity of voters.
    
    Crawford, 553 U.S. at 194
    (quoting Building Confidence
    at 18) (footnote omitted).
    The majority today holds that, as a matter of federal law,
    Arizona may not enforce a neutrally drawn statute
    recommended by a bi-partisan commission criminalizing the
    very conduct that produced a fraudulent outcome in a race for
    Congress less than a year ago. When the Voting Rights Act
    requires courts to consider the “totality of the circumstances,”
    DNC V. HOBBS                        167
    it is a poor understanding of the Act that would strike
    common time, place, and manner restrictions designed to
    build confidence in the very voting system that it now leaves
    vulnerable.
    III
    As citizens of a democratic republic, we understand
    intuitively that we have a legal right and a moral duty to cast
    a ballot in free elections. The states have long had the power
    to fashion the rules by which its citizens vote for their
    national, state, and local officials. Once we consider that
    “totality of the circumstances” must take account of long-
    held, widely adopted measures, we must conclude that
    Arizona’s time, place, and manner rules are well within our
    American democratic-republican tradition. Nothing in the
    Voting Rights Act makes “‘evenhanded restrictions that
    protect the integrity and reliability of the electoral process’
    . . . invidious.” 
    Crawford, 553 U.S. at 189
    –90 (quoting
    
    Anderson, 460 U.S. at 788
    n.9).
    I would affirm the judgment of the district court, and I
    respectfully dissent.
    168                DNC V. HOBBS
    Appendix A
    State and Territory Laws Regarding Treatment of
    Out-of-Precinct Provisional Ballots
    Jurisdiction                   Citation
    Alabama         Ala. Code § 17-9-10 (2019) (providing
    that voters must vote in their “county
    and voting place” of domicile); see also
    Davis v. Bennett, 
    154 So. 3d 114
    , 131
    (Ala. 2014) (affirming that Alabama
    law requires voters to cast ballots at the
    correct voting place).
    Alaska          Alaska Stat. Ann. § 15.20.207(b) (West
    2019) (failing to list out-of-precinct
    voting as grounds for rejecting a
    ballot); Alaska Stat. Ann.
    § 15.20.211(a) (West 2019) (providing
    that a voter may cast a vote in another
    house district for statewide and federal
    offices); see also Hammond v. Hickel,
    
    588 P.2d 256
    , 264 (Alaska 1978)
    (“There is no constitutional requirement
    of precinct residency, and there is clear
    statutory authorization for persons
    claiming to be registered voters to vote
    a questioned ballot if there is no
    evidence of registration in the precinct
    in which the voter seeks to vote.”).
    American        Am. Samoa Code Ann. § 6.0223(b)–(c)
    Samoa           (providing that a voter’s right to vote
    may be challenged if the voter “is not
    DNC V. HOBBS                         169
    entitled to vote in that district” and, if
    true, the ballot will be rejected).
    Arizona       Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-584(D)–(E)
    (2018) (requiring confirmation that the
    voter resided in the precinct).
    Arkansas      Ark. Code Ann. § 7-5-308(f) (West
    2017) (requiring only that voters be
    registered to vote in the state).
    California    Cal. Elec. Code § 14310(c)(3) (West
    2019) (“The provisional ballot of a
    voter who is otherwise entitled to vote
    shall not be rejected because the voter
    did not cast his or her ballot in the
    precinct to which he or she was
    assigned by the elections official.”).
    Colorado      8 Colo. Code Regs. § 1505-1:17.2.9
    (2019) (providing that if an elector used
    the wrong ballot, then “only races and
    issues for which the elector [was]
    qualified to vote may be counted”).
    Connecticut   Conn. Gen. Stat. Ann. §§ 9-232, 9-232n
    (West 2019) (requiring that only
    provisional ballots by applicants
    eligible to vote in a given town may be
    counted).
    Delaware      Del. Code Ann. tit. 15,
    § 4948(h)(7)–(8) (West 2015)
    (explaining that provisional ballots may
    not be counted if cast by voters outside
    of their election districts).
    170              DNC V. HOBBS
    District of   D.C. Code Ann. § 1-1001.09(b)(3)
    Columbia      (West 2017) (providing that, aside from
    those requiring accessible entrances,
    “[n]o registered qualified elector of the
    District may cast a vote in a precinct
    that does not serve his or her current
    residence”); D.C. Mun. Regs. tit. 3,
    § 807 (2019) (stating that a provisional
    ballot may be tabulated if, inter alia,
    “the voter cast the Special Ballot at the
    precinct in which the voter maintains
    residence or at an early voting center
    designated by the Board”).
    Florida       Fla. Stat. Ann. § 101.048(2)(a) (West
    2019) (“The county canvassing board
    shall examine each Provisional Ballot
    Voter’s Certificate and Affirmation to
    determine if the person voting that
    ballot was entitled to vote at the
    precinct where the person cast a vote in
    the election . . . .”).
    Georgia       Ga. Code Ann. § 21-2-419(c)(2) (West
    2019) (stating that if a voter voted in
    the wrong precinct, then races for
    which the voter was entitled to vote
    shall be counted).
    Guam          3 Guam Code Ann. § 14105(a) (2016)
    (“When a provisional voter casts a
    provisional ballot in the incorrect
    precinct, election officials shall count
    the votes on that ballot in every race for
    which the voter would be entitled to
    DNC V. HOBBS                          171
    vote if he or she had been in the correct
    precinct.”).
    Hawai‘i    Haw. Code R. § 3-172-140(c)(3) (2017)
    (“If [the] county clerk determines the
    individual is not eligible to vote in the
    precinct where the provisional ballot
    was cast, the provisional ballot shall not
    be counted.”).
    Idaho      Does not use provisional ballots
    because the state allows for election-
    day registration. See Idaho Code Ann.
    § 34-408A (West 2019).
    Illinois   10 Ill. Comp. Stat. Ann. 5/18A-15(b)(1)
    (West 2015) (explaining that a
    provisional ballot is valid if, inter alia,
    “the provisional voter cast the
    provisional ballot in the correct
    precinct”).
    Indiana    Ind. Code Ann. § 3-11.7-5-3(a) (West
    2019) (providing that a ballot is invalid
    and may not be counted if “the
    provisional voter is not a qualified voter
    of the precinct”).
    Iowa       Iowa Code Ann. § 49.9 (West 2019)
    (explaining that “a person shall not vote
    in any precinct but that of the person’s
    residence”).
    Kansas     Kan. Stat. Ann. § 25-3002(b)(3) (West
    2019) (explaining that if a voter cast a
    ballot for the wrong precinct, but was
    172                DNC V. HOBBS
    still within the same county, then votes
    for which the voter was eligible will be
    counted).
    Kentucky        31 Ky. Admin. Regs. 6:020(14) (2019)
    (“If the county board of elections
    determines the individual is ineligible
    to vote in the precinct in the election,
    the vote shall not be counted . . . .”).
    Louisiana       La. Stat. Ann. § 18:556.2(F)(3)(a)–(b)
    (2017) (stating that a provisional ballot
    may be counted if the voter was a
    registered voter in the parish and was
    eligible to vote for the federal offices
    cast).
    Maine           Me. Stat. tit. 11, § 50 (2019) (providing
    that all ballots cast in Maine will be
    counted so long as “challenged ballots
    are insufficient in number to affect the
    result of the election”).
    Maryland        Md. Code Ann., Elec. Law § 11-
    303(e)(2) (West 2019) (stating that if
    the voter voted out of precinct, “only
    the votes cast by the voter for each
    candidate or question applicable to the
    precinct in which the voter resides” will
    get counted).
    Massachusetts   Mass. Gen. Laws Ann. ch. 54, § 76C(d)
    (West 2004) (“A provisional ballot cast
    by a person whose name is not on the
    voting list for the city or town in which
    DNC V. HOBBS                         173
    they are claiming the right to vote, but
    whom the city or town clerk determines
    to be eligible to vote in another precinct
    of the same city or town, shall be
    counted in the precinct in which the
    person cast the provisional ballot for all
    offices for which the person is eligible
    to vote.”).
    Michigan      Mich. Comp. Laws Ann. § 168.813(1)
    (West 2018) (stating that provisional
    ballots may only be counted “if the
    identity and residence of the elector is
    established”).
    Minnesota     Does not use provisional ballots
    because the state allows for election-
    day registration. See Minn. Stat. Ann.
    § 201.061 subd. 3(a) (West 2017).
    Mississippi   1 Miss. Admin. Code Pt. 10, Exh. A
    (2019) (“Poll managers shall advise an
    affidavit voter his/her ballot will not
    count if he/she is voting at the wrong
    polling place.”).
    Missouri      Mo. Ann. Stat. § 115.430(2)(1) (West
    2019) (explaining that ballots voted in
    a polling place where the voter was not
    eligible to vote will not be counted).
    Montana       Mont. Code Ann. § 13-15-107 (West
    2019) (stating that a ballot must be
    rejected if the voter’s identity and
    eligibility cannot be verified).
    174             DNC V. HOBBS
    Nebraska     Neb. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 32-1002(5)(e)
    (West 2019) (providing that a
    provisional ballot shall not be counted
    if “[t]he residence address provided on
    the registration application completed
    . . . is in a different county or in a
    different precinct than the county or
    precinct in which the voter voted”).
    Nevada       Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 293.3085 (West
    2019) (“A provisional ballot must not
    be counted if the county or city clerk
    determines that the person who cast the
    provisional ballot cast the wrong ballot
    for the address at which the person
    resides.”).
    New          Does not use provisional ballots
    Hampshire    because the state allows for election-
    day registration. See N.H. Rev. Stat.
    Ann. § 654:7-a (2017).
    New Jersey   N.J. Stat. Ann. § 19:53C-17 (West
    2019) (“If, for any reason, a provisional
    ballot voter votes a ballot other than the
    ballot for the district in which the voter
    is qualified to vote, the votes for those
    offices and questions for which the
    voter would be otherwise qualified to
    vote shall be counted. All other votes
    shall be void.”).
    New Mexico   N.M. Stat. Ann. § 1-12-25.4(F) (West
    2019) (“If the voter is a registered voter
    in the county but has voted on a
    DNC V. HOBBS                         175
    provisional paper ballot other than the
    ballot of the voter’s correct precinct,
    the county canvassing board shall
    ensure that only those votes for the
    positions or measures for which the
    voter was eligible to vote are
    counted.”).
    New York         N.Y. Elec. Law § 9-209(2)(a)(iii)
    (McKinney 2019) (“If the board of
    elections determines that a person was
    entitled to vote at such election, the
    board shall cast and canvass such ballot
    if such board finds that the voter
    appeared at the correct polling place,
    regardless of the fact that the voter may
    have appeared in the incorrect election
    district.”).
    North Carolina   N.C. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 163A-
    1169(a)(4) (West 2019) (“If the county
    board of elections finds that an
    individual voting a provisional official
    ballot (i) was registered in the county as
    provided in G.S. 163A-1166, (ii) voted
    in the proper precinct under G.S. 163A-
    841 and G.S. 163A-842, and (iii) was
    otherwise eligible to vote, the
    provisional official ballots shall be
    counted by the county board of
    elections before the canvass. Except as
    provided in G.S. 163A-1184(e), if the
    county board finds that an individual
    voting a provisional official ballot
    176                  DNC V. HOBBS
    (i) did not vote in the proper precinct
    under G.S. 163A-841 and G.S. 163A-
    842, (ii) is not registered in the county
    as provided in G.S. 163A-860, or (iii) is
    otherwise not eligible to vote, the ballot
    shall not be counted. If a voter was
    properly registered to vote in the
    election by the county board, no
    mistake of an election official in giving
    the voter a ballot or in failing to comply
    with G.S. 163A-1184 or G.S. 163A-
    1142 shall serve to prevent the counting
    of the vote on any ballot item the voter
    was eligible by registration and
    qualified by residency to vote.”).
    North Dakota      North Dakota does not require voters to
    be registered and does not utilize
    provisional ballots. See N.D. Cent.
    Code Ann. § 16.1-01-04 (West 2019).
    Northern          1 N. Mar. I. Code § 6215(b)–(c) (2014)
    Mariana Islands   (providing that a voter’s right to vote
    may be challenged if the voter “is not
    entitled to vote in that election district”
    and, if true, the ballot will be rejected).
    Ohio              Ohio Rev. Code Ann. § 3505.183(D)
    (West 2019) (stating that under certain
    circumstances, if a voter cast a ballot in
    the wrong precinct due to poll-worker
    error, then the votes for which the voter
    would have been eligible to cast are
    counted).
    DNC V. HOBBS                           177
    Oklahoma       Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 26, § 7-116.1(C)
    (West 2019) (“A provisional ballot
    shall be counted only if it is cast in the
    precinct of the voter’s residence . . . .”).
    Oregon         Or. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 254.408(6) (West
    2018) (explaining that provisional votes
    will be counted according to whether
    “the elector is qualified to vote for the
    particular office or on the measure”).
    Pennsylvania   25 Pa. Stat. and Cons. Stat. Ann.
    § 3050(a.4)(7) (West 2012) (providing
    that so long as a ballot is cast within the
    voter’s county, if it is cast in the wrong
    election district, then only votes which
    the voter was entitled to make will be
    counted).
    Puerto Rico    P.R. Laws Ann. tit. 16, § 4062 (2011)
    (“If a voter votes in a precinct other
    than the one where he/she is registered,
    only the vote cast for the offices of
    Governor and Resident Commissioner
    shall be adjudicated during the general
    canvass.”).
    Rhode Island   410 R.I. Code R. § 20-00-13.7(C)(1)(b)
    (2012) (stating that when a voter who
    cast a provisional ballot lives outside of
    the precinct, the ballot shall be marked
    “Federal Offices Only” and only votes
    for federal officials for whom the voter
    was eligible to vote shall be counted).
    178                 DNC V. HOBBS
    South Carolina   S.C. Code Ann. § 7-13-830 (2019) (“If
    the board certifies the person
    challenged is not a qualified elector of
    the precinct, this certification is
    considered an administrative challenge
    and is clear and convincing evidence
    for the meeting authority to disallow
    the ballot.”).
    South Dakota     S.D. Codified Laws § 12-20-5.1 (2019)
    (“Prior to the official canvass, the
    person in charge of the election shall
    determine if the person voting by
    provisional ballot was legally qualified
    to vote in the precinct in which the
    provisional ballot was cast.”).
    Tennessee        Tenn. Code Ann. § 2-7-112(a)(3)(B)(v)
    (West 2018) (explaining that a ballot
    shall be rejected if it is determined that
    the voter should not have cast the ballot
    in the precinct).
    Texas            Tex. Elec. Code Ann. § 65.054(b)(1)
    (West 2012) (stating that a provisional
    ballot shall be accepted only if the voter
    was qualified to cast it); see also
    Morales v. Segura, No. 04-15-365,
    
    2015 WL 8985802
    , at *4 (Tex. App.
    Dec. 16, 2015) (upholding the rejection
    of a ballot voted in the wrong precinct).
    Utah             Utah Code Ann. § 20A-4-107(a)–(c)
    (West 2019) (explaining that a ballot
    voted in the wrong precinct but the
    DNC V. HOBBS                          179
    right county is able to have any votes
    counted for which the voter was
    eligible to vote).
    Vermont          Vt. Stat. Ann. tit. 17, § 2121(a) (West
    2019) (explaining that a voter is
    qualified to “register to vote in the town
    of his or her residence”); see also 
    id. § 2557(a)
    (stating that a provisional
    ballot may be accepted once the town
    clerk “determine[s] whether the
    applicant meets all of the registration
    eligibility requirements”).
    Virgin Islands   V.I. Code Ann. tit. 18, §§ 581(a), 587
    (2019) (providing that voters must
    reside in their election districts and that
    poll workers must challenge an
    individual that they believe does not
    reside within the district).
    Virginia         Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-653(B) (West
    2015) (“The electoral board shall . . .
    determine whether each person having
    submitted such a provisional vote was
    entitled to do so as a qualified voter in
    the precinct in which he offered the
    provisional vote.”).
    Washington       Wash. Admin. Code § 434-262-032
    (2019) (listing situations where a ballot
    must be struck and failing to provide
    out-of-precinct voting as reason for
    disqualifying a ballot).
    180                DNC V. HOBBS
    West Virginia   W. Va. Code Ann. § 3-1-41(d) (West
    2016) (stating that poll clerks must
    warn “that if the voter is casting a ballot
    in the incorrect precinct, the ballot cast
    may not be counted for that election”).
    Wisconsin       Wis. Stat. Ann. § 6.97(4) (West 2018)
    (providing that there must be a
    determination of whether the
    “individual who has voted under this
    section is qualified to vote in the ward
    or election district where the
    individual’s ballot is cast”).
    Wyoming         Wyo. Stat. Ann. § 22-15-105(b) (West
    2019) (requiring voters to swear that
    they are entitled to vote in the given
    precinct).
    DNC V. HOBBS                        181
    Appendix B
    State and Territory Treatment of Out-of-Precinct
    Provisional Ballots15
    Do Not Tabulate Out-of-         Tabulate Out-of-Precinct
    Precinct Ballots                    Ballots
    Alabama                         Alaska
    American Samoa                  Arkansas
    Arizona                         California
    Connecticut                     Colorado
    Delaware                        Georgia
    District of Columbia            Guam
    Florida                         Kansas*
    Hawai‘i                         Louisiana†
    Illinois                        Maine
    Indiana                         Maryland
    Iowa                            Massachusetts*
    Kentucky                        New Jersey
    Michigan                        New Mexico*
    15
    Idaho, Minnesota, New Hampshire, and North Dakota are not
    included because they do not use provisional ballots. 
    See supra
    Appendix A.
    182                   DNC V. HOBBS
    Mississippi                   New York
    Missouri                      North Carolina‡
    Montana                       Ohio††
    Nebraska                      Oregon
    Nevada                        Pennsylvania*
    Northern Mariana Islands      Puerto Rico**
    Oklahoma                      Rhode Island†
    South Carolina                Utah*
    South Dakota                  Washington
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Vermont
    Virgin Islands
    Virginia
    West Virginia
    Wisconsin
    Wyoming
    * Requires the voter to be in the correct county, city, or
    town.
    † Tabulates votes for federal offices only.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        183
    ‡ There is some divergence among secondary sources
    regarding whether North Carolina counts OOP ballots.
    Compare Provisional Ballots, Nat’l Conf. of St. Legislatures
    (Oct. 15, 2018), http://www.ncsl.org/research/elections-and-
    campaigns/provisional-ballots.aspx, with What Is
    Provisional Voting? Explained, democracy N.C.,
    https://democracync.org/resources/what-is-provisional-
    voting-explained (last visited Oct. 15, 2019). North Carolina
    law generally disfavors counting only provisional ballots cast
    within the correct precinct. See N.C. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 163A-
    1169(a)(4) (West 2019) (“[I]f the county board finds that an
    individual voting a provisional official ballot (i) did not vote
    in the proper precinct . . . the ballot shall not be counted.”);
    see also James v. Bartlett, 
    607 S.E.2d 638
    , 642 (N.C. 2005)
    (“[V]oters must cast ballots on election day in their precincts
    of residence.”). Nevertheless, North Carolina law appears to
    allow an OOP vote to be tabulated in very narrow
    exceptions—such as election-official error. See N.C. Gen.
    Stat. Ann. § 163A-1169(a)(4) (“If a voter was properly
    registered to vote in the election by the county board, no
    mistake of an election official in giving the voter a ballot or
    in failing to comply with G.S. 163A-1184 or G.S. 163A-1142
    shall serve to prevent the counting of the vote on any ballot
    item the voter was eligible by registration and qualified by
    residency to vote.”). This dissent resolves doubt in favor of
    listing North Carolina as a state that counts OOP
    ballots—even though its current law and practice are not
    entirely clear.
    †† The ballot may be counted if, among other things, the
    casting of the wrong ballot was a result of poll-worker error.
    Only offices for which the voter would have been eligible to
    vote will be counted.
    184             DNC V. HOBBS
    ** Only the votes for Governor and Resident
    Commissioner will be canvassed.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         185
    Appendix C
    State and Territory Laws Regarding the
    Collection of Absentee Ballots
    Jurisdiction                      Citation
    Alabama            Ala. Code § 17-11-4 (2019):
    An application for a voter who requires
    emergency treatment by a licensed
    physician within five days before an
    election pursuant to Section 17-11-3
    may be forwarded to the absentee
    election manager by the applicant or his
    or her designee.
    Alaska             Alaska Stat. Ann. § 15.20.072 (West
    2019) (providing a method a personal
    representative to handle and deliver
    ballots for a special needs voter).
    American           Am. Samoa Code Ann. 6.1104(a):
    Samoa
    The reply envelope shall bear upon the
    face thereof the name, official title, and
    post office address of the Chief
    Election Officer and the words
    “Absentee Ballot Enclosed”. The back
    of the reply envelope shall contain a
    statement to be subscribed to by the
    qualified elector which affirms the fact
    that he is the person voting.
    186          DNC V. HOBBS
    Arizona   Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 16-1005(H)–(I)
    (2016):
    H. A person who knowingly collects
    voted or unvoted early ballots from
    another person is guilty of a class 6
    felony. An election official, a United
    States postal service worker or any
    other person who is allowed by law to
    transmit United States mail is deemed
    not to have collected an early ballot if
    the official, worker or other person is
    engaged in official duties.
    I. Subsection H of this section does not
    apply to:
    1. An election held by a special taxing
    district formed pursuant to title 481 for
    the purpose of protecting or providing
    services to agricultural lands or crops
    and that is authorized to conduct
    elections pursuant to title 48.
    2. A family member, household
    member or caregiver of the voter. For
    the purposes of this paragraph:
    (a) “Caregiver” means a person who
    provides medical or health care
    assistance to the voter in a residence,
    nursing care institution, hospice
    facility, assisted living center, assisted
    DNC V. HOBBS                        187
    living facility, assisted living home,
    residential care institution, adult day
    health care facility or adult foster care
    home.
    (b) “Collects” means to gain possession
    or control of an early ballot.
    (c) “Family member” means a person
    who is related to the voter by blood,
    marri age, adopt ion or legal
    guardianship.
    (d) “Household member” means a
    person who resides at the same
    residence as the voter.
    Arkansas   Ark. Code Ann. § 7-5-403(a) (West
    2019):
    (1) A designated bearer may obtain
    absentee ballots for no more than two
    (2) voters per election.
    (2)(A) A designated bearer shall not
    have more than two (2) absentee ballots
    in his or her possession at any time.
    (B) If the county clerk knows or
    reasonably suspects that a designated
    bearer has more than two (2) absentee
    ballots in his or her possession, the
    county clerk shall notify the
    prosecuting attorney.
    188             DNC V. HOBBS
    (3)(A) A designated bearer receiving an
    absentee ballot from the county clerk
    for a voter shall obtain the absentee
    ballot directly from the county clerk
    and deliver the absentee ballot directly
    to the voter.
    (B) A designated bearer receiving an
    absentee ballot from a voter shall obtain
    the absentee ballot directly from the
    voter and deliver the absentee ballot
    directly to the county clerk.
    (4)(A) A designated bearer may deliver
    to the county clerk the absentee ballots
    for not more than two (2) voters.
    (B) The designated bearer shall be
    named on the voter statement
    accompanying the absentee ballot.
    California   Cal. Elec. Code § 3017(a)(2) (West
    2019):
    A vote by mail voter who is unable to
    return the ballot may designate another
    person to return the ballot to the
    elections official who issued the ballot,
    to the precinct board at a polling place
    or vote center within the state, or to a
    vote by mail ballot dropoff location
    within the state that is provided
    pursuant to Section 3025 or 4005. The
    person designated shall return the ballot
    DNC V. HOBBS                        189
    in person, or put the ballot in the mail,
    no later than three days after receiving
    it from the voter or before the close of
    the polls on election day, whichever
    time period is shorter. Notwithstanding
    subdivision (d), a ballot shall not be
    disqualified from being counted solely
    because it was returned or mailed more
    than three days after the designated
    person received it from the voter,
    provided that the ballot is returned by
    the designated person before the close
    of polls on election day.
    Colorado   Colo. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 1-7.5-
    107(4)(b)(I) (West 2019)
    The eligible elector may:
    (A) Return the marked ballot to the
    county clerk and recorder or designated
    election official by United States mail
    or by depositing the ballot at the office
    of the county clerk and recorder or
    designated election official or at any
    voter service and polling center, drop
    box, or drop-off location designated by
    the county clerk and recorder or
    designated election official as specified
    in the election plan filed with the
    secretary of state. The ballot must be
    returned in the return envelope.
    190              DNC V. HOBBS
    (B) Deliver the ballot to any person of
    the elector’s own choice or to any duly
    authorized agent of the county clerk
    and recorder or designated election
    official for mailing or personal
    delivery; except that no person other
    than a duly authorized agent of the
    county clerk and recorder or designated
    election official may receive more than
    ten mail ballots in any election for
    mailing or delivery; or
    (C) Cast his or her vote in person at the
    voter service and polling center.
    Connecticut   Conn. Gen. Stat. Ann. § 9-140b(a)
    (West 2019):
    An absentee ballot shall be cast at a
    primary, election or referendum only if:
    (1) It is mailed by (A) the ballot
    applicant, (B) a designee of a person
    who applies for an absentee ballot
    because of illness or physical disability,
    or (C) a member of the immediate
    family of an applicant who is a student,
    so that it is received by the clerk of the
    municipality in which the applicant is
    qualified to vote not later than the close
    of the polls; (2) it is returned by the
    applicant in person to the clerk by the
    day before a regular election, special
    election or primary or prior to the
    opening of the polls on the day of a
    DNC V. HOBBS                         191
    referendum; (3) it is returned by a
    designee of an ill or physically disabled
    ballot applicant, in person, to said clerk
    not later than the close of the polls on
    the day of the election, primary or
    referendum; (4) it is returned by a
    member of the immediate family of the
    absentee voter, in person, to said clerk
    not later than the close of the polls on
    the day of the election, primary or
    referendum; (5) in the case of a
    presidential or overseas ballot, it is
    mailed or otherwise returned pursuant
    to the provisions of section 9-158g; or
    (6) it is returned with the proper
    identification as required by the Help
    America Vote Act, P.L. 107-252,1 as
    amended from time to time, if
    applicable, inserted in the outer
    envelope so such identification can be
    viewed without opening the inner
    envelope. A person returning an
    absentee ballot to the municipal clerk
    pursuant to subdivision (3) or (4) of this
    subsection shall present identification
    and, on the outer envelope of the
    absentee ballot, sign his name in the
    presence of the municipal clerk, and
    indicate his address, his relationship to
    the voter or his position, and the date
    and time of such return. As used in this
    section, “immediate family” means a
    dependent relative who resides in the
    192              DNC V. HOBBS
    individual’s household or any spouse,
    child or parent of the individual.
    Delaware      Del. Code Ann. tit. 15, § 5507(4) (West
    2018):
    The elector shall return the sealed ballot
    envelope to the Department by:
    a. Depositing it in a United States
    postal mailbox, thereby mailing it to the
    Department; or
    b. Delivering it, or causing it to be
    delivered, to the Department before the
    polls close on the day of the election.
    District of   D.C. Mun. Regs. tit. 3, § 722.2 (2019):
    Columbia
    A duly registered voter shall apply to
    vote by emergency absentee ballot
    according to the following procedure:
    (a) The registered voter shall, by signed
    affidavit on a form provided by the
    Board, set forth:
    (1) The reason why he or she is unable
    to be present at the polls on the day of
    the election; and
    (2) Designate a duly registered voter to
    serve as agent for the purpose of
    delivering the absentee ballot to the
    DNC V. HOBBS                         193
    voter, except than an officer of the
    court in charge of a jury sequestered on
    election day may act as agent for any
    registered voter sequestered regardless
    of whether the officer is a registered
    voter in the District.
    (b) Upon receipt of the application, the
    Executive Director, or his or her
    designee, if satisfied that the person
    cannot, in fact, be present at the polling
    place on the day of the election shall
    issue to the voter, through the voter’s
    duly authorized agent, an absentee
    ballot which shall be marked by the
    voter, placed in a sealed envelope and
    returned to the Board before the close
    of the polls on election day.
    (c) The person designated as agent
    shall, by signed affidavit on a form
    prescribed by the Board, state the
    following:
    (1) That the ballot will be delivered by
    the voter who submitted the application
    for the ballot; and
    (2) That the ballot shall be marked by
    the voter and placed in a sealed
    envelope in the agent’s presence, and
    returned, under seal to the Board by the
    agent.
    194          DNC V. HOBBS
    Florida   Fla. Stat. Ann. § 104.0616 (West 2016):
    (1) For purposes of this section, the
    term “immediate family” means a
    person’s spouse or the parent, child,
    grandparent, or sibling of the person or
    the person’s spouse.
    (2) Any person who provides or offers
    to provide, and any person who accepts,
    a pecuniary or other benefit in
    exchange for distributing, ordering,
    requesting, collecting, delivering, or
    otherwise physically possessing more
    than two vote-by-mail ballots per
    election in addition to his or her own
    ballot or a ballot belonging to an
    immediate family member, except as
    provided in ss. 101.6105–101.694,
    commits a misdemeanor of the first
    degree, punishable as provided in s.
    775.082, s. 775.083, or s. 775.084.
    Georgia   Ga. Code Ann. § 21-2-385 (West
    2019):
    (a) . . . Such envelope shall then be
    securely sealed and the elector shall
    then personally mail or personally
    deliver same to the board of registrars
    or absentee ballot clerk, provided that
    mailing or delivery may be made by the
    elector’s mother, father, grandparent,
    aunt, uncle, brother, sister, spouse, son,
    DNC V. HOBBS                          195
    daughter, niece, nephew, grandchild,
    son-in-law, daughter-in-law, mother-in-
    law, father-in-law, brother-in-law,
    sister-in-law, or an individual residing
    in the household of such elector. The
    absentee ballot of a disabled elector
    may be mailed or delivered by the
    caregiver of such disabled elector,
    regardless of whether such caregiver
    resides in such disabled elector’s
    household. The absentee ballot of an
    elector who is in custody in a jail or
    other detention facility may be mailed
    or delivered by any employee of such
    jail or facility having custody of such
    elector. An elector who is confined to a
    hospital on a primary or election day to
    whom an absentee ballot is delivered by
    the registrar or absentee ballot clerk
    shall then and there vote the ballot, seal
    it properly, and return it to the registrar
    or absentee ballot clerk. . . .
    (b) A physically disabled or illiterate
    elector may receive assistance in
    preparing his or her ballot from any
    person of the elector’s choice other than
    such elector’s employer or the agent of
    such employer or an officer or agent of
    such elector’s union; provided,
    however, that no person whose name
    appears on the ballot as a candidate at a
    particular primary, election, or runoff
    196       DNC V. HOBBS
    nor [specified relatives of a candidate]
    to any elector who is not related to such
    candidate. . . . The person rendering
    assistance to the elector in preparing the
    ballot shall sign the oath printed on the
    same envelope as the oath to be signed
    by the elector. Any person who
    willfully violates this subsection shall
    be guilty of a felony and, upon
    conviction thereof, shall be sentenced
    to imprisonment for not less than one
    nor more than ten years or to pay a fine
    not to exceed $100,000.00, or both, for
    each such violation.
    Guam   3 Guam Code Ann. § 10107 (2016):
    The Commission shall deliver a ballot
    to any qualified elector applying in
    person at the office of said
    Commission; provided, however, that
    such applicant shall complete and
    subscribe the application heretofore
    prescribed by this Chapter; provided
    further, that said application shall be
    made not more than thirty (30) days nor
    less than one (1) day before the date of
    the election for which the vote is being
    cast. It is provided further, that said
    ballot shall be immediately marked,
    enclosed in the ballot envelope, placed
    in the return envelope with the proper
    affidavit enclosed, and immediately
    returned to the Commission.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         197
    Hawai‘i   Haw. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 15-9 (West
    2019):
    (a) The return envelope shall be:
    (1) Mailed and must be received by the
    clerk issuing the absentee ballot no later
    than the closing hour on election day in
    accordance with section 11-131; or
    (2) Delivered other than by mail to the
    clerk issuing the absentee ballot, or to a
    voter service center no later than the
    closing hour on election day in
    accordance with section 11-131.
    (b) Upon receipt of the return envelope
    from any person voting under this
    chapter, the clerk may prepare the
    ballots for counting pursuant to this
    section and section 15-10.
    (c) Before opening the return and ballot
    envelopes and counting the ballots, the
    return envelopes shall be checked for
    the following:
    (1) Signature on the affirmation
    statement;
    198        DNC V. HOBBS
    (2) Whether the signature corresponds
    with the absentee request or register as
    prescribed in the rules adopted by the
    chief election officer; and
    (3) Whether the person is a registered
    voter and has complied with the
    requirements of sections 11-15 and 11-
    16.
    (d) If any requirement listed in
    subsection (c) is not met or if the return
    or ballot envelope appears to be
    tampered with, the clerk or the absentee
    ballot team official shall mark across
    the face of the envelope “invalid” and it
    shall be kept in the custody of the clerk
    and disposed of as prescribed for
    ballots in section 11-154.
    Idaho   Idaho Code Ann. § 34-1005 (West
    2019):
    The return envelope shall be mailed or
    delivered to the officer who issued the
    same; provided, that an absentee ballot
    must be received by the issuing officer
    by 8:00 p.m. on the day of election
    before such ballot may be counted.
    DNC V. HOBBS                        199
    Illinois   10 Ill. Comp. Stat. Ann. § 5/19-6 (West
    2015):
    It shall be unlawful for any person not
    the voter or a person authorized by the
    voter to take the ballot and ballot
    envelope of a voter for deposit into the
    mail unless the ballot has been issued
    pursuant to application by a physically
    incapacitated elector under Section 3-3
    or a hospitalized voter under Section
    19-13, in which case any employee or
    person under the direction of the
    facility in which the elector or voter is
    located may deposit the ballot and
    ballot envelope into the mail. If the
    voter authorized a person to deliver the
    ballot to the election authority, the
    voter and the person authorized to
    deliver the ballot shall complete the
    authorization printed on the exterior
    envelope supplied by an election
    authority for the return of the vote by
    mail ballot.
    Indiana    Ind. Code Ann. § 3-14-2-16(4) (West
    2019):
    A person who knowingly does any of
    the following commits a Level 6
    felony: . . .
    200       DNC V. HOBBS
    (4) Receives from a voter a ballot
    prepared by the voter for voting,
    except:
    (A) the inspector;
    (B) a member of the precinct election
    board temporarily acting for the
    inspector;
    (C) a member or an employee of a
    county election board (acting under the
    authority of the board and state law) or
    an absentee voter board member acting
    under IC 3-11-10; or
    (D) a member of the voter’s household,
    an individual designated as attorney in
    fact for the voter, or an employee of:
    (i) the United States Postal Service; or
    (ii) a bonded courier company;
    (acting in the individual’s capacity as
    an employee of the United States Postal
    Service or a bonded courier company)
    when delivering an envelope containing
    an absentee ballot under IC 3-11-10-1.
    Iowa   Iowa Code Ann. § 53.17(1) (West
    2019):
    DNC V. HOBBS                        201
    a. The sealed return envelope may be
    delivered by the registered voter, by the
    voter’s designee, or by the special
    precinct election officials designated
    pursuant to section 53.22, subsection 2,
    to the commissioner’s office no later
    than the time the polls are closed on
    election day. However, if delivered by
    the voter’s designee, the envelope shall
    be delivered within seventy-two hours
    of retrieving it from the voter or before
    the closing of the polls on election day,
    whichever is earlier.
    b. The sealed return envelope may be
    mailed to the commissioner by the
    registered voter or by the voter’s
    designee. If mailed by the voter’s
    designee, the envelope must be mailed
    within seventy-two hours of retrieving
    it from the voter or within time to be
    postmarked or, if applicable, to have
    the postal service barcode traced to a
    date of entry into the federal mail
    system not later than the day before the
    election, as provided in section 53.17A,
    whichever is earlier.
    Kansas   Kan. Stat. Ann. § 25-1221 (West 2019):
    After such voter has marked the official
    federal services absentee ballot, he or
    she shall place it in the official ballot
    envelope and secretly seal the same.
    202           DNC V. HOBBS
    Such voter shall then fill out in full the
    form printed upon the official ballot
    envelope and sign the same. Such ballot
    envelope shall then be placed in the
    envelope provided for such purpose and
    mailed by the voter to the county
    election officer of the county of the
    voter’s residence.
    Kan. Stat. Ann. § 25-1124(d) (West
    2019):
    Any voted ballot may be transmitted to
    the county election officer by the voter
    or by another person designated in
    writing by the voter, except if the voter
    has a disability preventing the voter
    from writing and signing a statement,
    the written and signed statement
    required by subsection (e) shall be
    sufficient.
    Kentucky   Ky. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 117.086(1) (West
    2019):
    The voter returning his absentee ballot
    by mail shall mark his ballot, seal it in
    the inner envelope and then in the outer
    envelope, and mail it to the county
    clerk as shall be provided by this
    chapter. The voter shall sign the
    detachable flap and the outer envelope
    in order to validate the ballot. A person
    having power of attorney for the voter
    DNC V. HOBBS                        203
    and who signs the detachable flap and
    outer envelope for the voter shall
    complete the voter assistance form as
    required by KRS 117.255. The
    signatures of two (2) witnesses are
    required if the voter signs the form with
    the use of a mark instead of the voter’s
    signature. A resident of Kentucky who
    is a covered voter as defined in KRS
    117A.010 who has received an absentee
    ballot transmitted by facsimile machine
    or by means of the electronic
    transmission system established under
    KRS 117A.030(4) shall transmit the
    voted ballot to the county clerk by mail
    only, conforming with ballot security
    requirements that may be promulgated
    by the state board by administrative
    regulation. In order to be counted, the
    ballots shall be received by the clerk by
    at least the time established by the
    election laws generally for the closing
    of the polls, which time shall not
    include the extra hour during which
    those voters may vote who were
    waiting in line to vote at the scheduled
    poll closing time.
    Louisiana   La. Stat. Ann. § 18:1308(B) (2017):
    The ballot shall be marked as provided
    in R.S. 18:1310 and returned to the
    registrar by the United States Postal
    Service, a commercial courier, or hand
    204        DNC V. HOBBS
    delivery. If delivered by other than the
    voter, a commercial courier, or the
    United States Postal Service, the
    registrar shall require that the person
    making such delivery sign a statement,
    prepared by the secretary of state,
    certifying that he has the authorization
    and consent of the voter to hand deliver
    the marked ballot. For purposes of this
    Subsection, “commercial courier” shall
    have the same meaning as provided in
    R.S. 13:3204(D). No person except the
    immediate family of the voter, as
    defined in this Code, shall hand deliver
    more than one marked ballot to the
    registrar.
    Maine   Me. Rev. Stat. Ann. tit. 21-A,
    § 791(2)(A) (2009):
    A person commits a Class D crime if
    that person [d]elivers, receives, accepts,
    notarizes or witnesses an absentee
    ballot for any compensation. This
    paragraph does not apply to a
    governmental employee handling
    ballots in the course of that employee’s
    official duties or a person who handles
    absentee ballots before the unvoted
    ballots are delivered to the municipality
    or after the voted ballots are returned to
    the clerk.
    DNC V. HOBBS                       
    205 Md. Md
    . Code Ann., Elec. Law § 9-307
    (West 2019):
    (a) A qualified applicant may designate
    a duly authorized agent to pick up and
    deliver an absentee ballot under this
    subtitle.
    (b) An agent of the voter under this
    section:
    (1) must be at least 18 years old;
    (2) may not be a candidate on that
    ballot;
    (3) shall be designated in a writing
    signed by the voter under penalty of
    perjury; and
    (4) shall execute an affidavit under
    penalty of perjury that the ballot was:
    (i) delivered to the voter who submitted
    the application;
    (ii) marked and placed in an envelope
    by the voter, or with assistance as
    allowed by regulation, in the agent’s
    presence; and
    (iii) returned to the local board by the
    agent.
    206                DNC V. HOBBS
    Massachusetts   Mass. Gen. Laws Ann. ch. 54, § 92(a)
    (West 2019):
    A voter who receives the ballot by mail,
    as provided in subsection (a) of section
    ninety-one B, may return it by mail to
    the city or town clerk in the envelope
    provided pursuant to subsection (d) of
    section eighty-seven, or such voter or a
    family member may deliver it in
    person to the office of the city or town
    clerk. A voter to whom a ballot was
    delivered in person at the office of the
    clerk as provided in said subsection (a)
    of said section ninety-one B shall return
    it without removing the ballot from
    such office.
    Michigan        Mich. Comp. Laws Ann. § 168.764a
    (West 2019):
    Step 5. Deliver the return envelope by
    1 of the following methods:
    (a) Place the necessary postage upon
    the return envelope and deposit it in the
    United States mail or with another
    public postal service, express mail
    service, parcel post service, or common
    carrier.
    (b) Deliver the envelope personally to
    the office of the clerk, to the clerk, or to
    an authorized assistant of the clerk.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         207
    (c) In either (a) or (b), a member of the
    immediate family of the voter including
    a father-in-law, mother-in-law, brother-
    in-law, sister-in-law, son-in-law,
    daughter-in-law, grandparent, or
    grandchild or a person residing in the
    voter’s household may mail or deliver
    a ballot to the clerk for the voter.
    (d) You may request by telephone that
    the clerk who issued the ballot provide
    assistance in returning the ballot. The
    clerk is required to provide assistance if
    you are unable to return your absent
    voter ballot as specified in (a), (b), or
    (c) above, if it is before 5 p.m. on the
    Friday immediately preceding the
    election, and if you are asking the clerk
    to pickup the absent voter ballot within
    the jurisdictional limits of the city,
    township, or village in which you are
    registered. Your absent voter ballot will
    then be picked up by the clerk or an
    election assistant sent by the clerk. All
    persons authorized to pick up absent
    voter ballots are required to carry
    credentials issued by the clerk. If using
    this absent voter ballot return method,
    do not give your ballot to anyone until
    you have checked their credentials. . . .
    208              DNC V. HOBBS
    All of the following actions are
    violations of the Michigan election law
    and are illegal in this state: . . . .
    (4) For a person other than those listed
    in these instructions to return, offer to
    return, agree to return, or solicit to
    return an absent voter ballot to the
    clerk.
    Minnesota     Minn. Stat. Ann. § 203B.08 subd. 1
    (West 2015):
    The voter may designate an agent to
    deliver in person the sealed absentee
    ballot return envelope to the county
    auditor or municipal clerk or to deposit
    the return envelope in the mail. An
    agent may deliver or mail the return
    envelopes of not more than three voters
    in any election. Any person designated
    as an agent who tampers with either the
    return envelope or the voted ballots or
    does not immediately mail or deliver
    the return envelope to the county
    auditor or municipal clerk is guilty of a
    misdemeanor.
    Mississippi   Miss. Code Ann. § 23-15-631(f) (West
    2019):
    Any voter casting an absentee ballot
    who declares that he or she requires
    assistance to vote by reason of
    DNC V. HOBBS                          209
    blindness, temporary or permanent
    physical disability or inability to read or
    write, shall be entitled to receive
    assistance in the marking of his or her
    absentee ballot and in completing the
    affidavit on the absentee ballot
    envelope. The voter may be given
    assistance by anyone of the voter’s
    choice other than a candidate whose
    name appears on the absentee ballot
    being marked, the spouse, parent or
    child of a candidate whose name
    appears on the absentee ballot being
    marked or the voter’s employer, an
    agent of that employer or a union
    representative; however, a candidate
    whose name is on the ballot or the
    spouse, parent or child of such
    candidate may provide assistance upon
    request to any voter who is related
    within the first degree. In order to
    ensure the integrity of the ballot, any
    person who provides assistance to an
    absentee voter shall be required to sign
    and complete the “Certificate of Person
    Providing Voter Assistance” on the
    absentee ballot envelope.
    Missouri   Mo. Ann. Stat. § 115.291(2) (West
    2018):
    Except as provided in subsection 4 of
    this section, each absentee ballot that is
    not cast by the voter in person in the
    210          DNC V. HOBBS
    office of the election authority shall be
    returned to the election authority in the
    ballot envelope and shall only be
    returned by the voter in person, or in
    person by a relative of the voter who is
    within the second degree of
    consanguinity or affinity, by mail or
    registered carrier or by a team of
    deputy election authorities; except that
    covered voters, when sent from a
    location determined by the secretary of
    state to be inaccessible on election day,
    shall be allowed to return their absentee
    ballots cast by use of facsimile
    transmission or under a program
    approved by the Department of Defense
    for electronic transmission of election
    materials.
    Montana   Mont. Code Ann. § 13-13-201 (West
    2019):
    (1) A legally registered elector or
    provisionally registered elector is
    entitled to vote by absentee ballot as
    provided for in this part.
    (2) The elector may vote absentee by:
    (a) marking the ballot in the manner
    specified;
    DNC V. HOBBS                        211
    (b) placing the marked ballot in the
    secrecy envelope, free of any
    identifying marks;
    (c) placing the secrecy envelope
    containing one ballot for each election
    being held in the signature envelope;
    (d) executing the affirmation printed on
    the signature envelope; and
    (e) returning the signature envelope
    with all appropriate enclosures by
    regular mail, postage paid, or by
    delivering it to:
    (i) the election office;
    (ii) a polling place within the elector’s
    county;
    (iii) pursuant to 13-13-229, the absentee
    election board or an authorized election
    official; or
    (iv) in a mail ballot election held
    pursuant to Title 13, chapter 19, a
    designated place of deposit within the
    elector’s county.
    (3) Except as provided in 13-21-206
    and 13-21-226, in order for the ballot to
    be counted, each elector shall return it
    212           DNC V. HOBBS
    in a manner that ensures the ballot is
    received prior to 8 p.m. on election day.
    Nebraska   Neb. Rev. Stat. § 32-943(2) (West
    2019):
    A candidate for office at such election
    and any person serving on a campaign
    committee for such a candidate shall
    not act as an agent for any registered
    voter requesting a ballot pursuant to
    this section unless such person is a
    member of the registered voter’s
    family. No person shall act as agent for
    more than two registered voters in any
    election.
    Nevada     Nev. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 293.330(4)
    (West 2017):
    [I]t is unlawful for any person to return
    an absent ballot other than the voter
    who requested the absent ballot or, at
    the request of the voter, a member of
    the voter’s family. A person who
    returns an absent ballot and who is a
    member of the family of the voter who
    requested the absent ballot shall, under
    penalty of perjury, indicate on a form
    prescribed by the county clerk that the
    person is a member of the family of the
    voter who requested the absent ballot
    and that the voter requested that the
    person return the absent ballot. A
    DNC V. HOBBS                           213
    person who violates the provisions of
    this subsection is guilty of a category E
    felony . . . .
    New         New Hampshire recently enacted
    Hampshire   legislation adding greater specificity to
    is provision governing the delivery of
    absentee ballots—N.H. Rev. Stat. Ann.
    § 657:17. The new statute will read:
    I. . . . . The voter or the person assisting
    a blind voter or voter with a disability
    shall then endorse on the outer
    envelope the voter’s name, address, and
    voting place. The absentee ballot shall
    be delivered to the city or town clerk
    from whom it was received in one of
    the following ways:
    (a) The voter or the voter’s delivery
    agent may personally deliver the
    envelope; or
    (b) The voter or the person assisting the
    blind voter or voter with a disability
    may mail the envelope to the city or
    town clerk, with postage affixed.
    II. As used in this section, “delivery
    agent” means:
    214     DNC V. HOBBS
    (a) The voter’s spouse, parent, sibling,
    child, grandchild, father-in-law,
    mother-in-law, son-in-law, daughter-in-
    law, stepparent, stepchild; or
    (b) If the voter is a resident of a nursing
    home as defined in RSA 151–A:1, IV,
    the nursing home administrator,
    licensed pursuant to RSA 151–A:2, or
    a nursing home staff member
    designated in writing by the
    administrator to deliver ballots; or
    (c) If the voter is a resident of a
    residential care facility licensed
    pursuant to RSA 151:2, I(e) and
    described in RSA 151:9, VII(a)(1) and
    (2), the residential care facility
    administrator, or a residential care
    facility staff member designated in
    writing by the administrator to deliver
    ballots; or
    (d) A person assisting a blind voter or a
    voter with a disability who has signed a
    statement on the affidavit envelope
    acknowledging the assistance.
    III. The city or town clerk, or ward
    clerk on election day at the polls, shall
    not accept an absentee ballot from a
    delivery agent unless the delivery agent
    completes a form provided by the
    DNC V. HOBBS                         215
    secretary of state, which shall be
    maintained by the city or town clerk,
    and the delivery agent presents a
    government-issued photo identification
    or has his or her identity verified by the
    city or town clerk. Absentee ballots
    delivered through the mail or by the
    voter’s delivery agent shall be received
    by the town, city, or ward clerk no later
    than 5:00 p.m. on the day of the
    election. A delivery agent who is
    assisting a voter who is blind or who
    has a disability pursuant to this section
    may not personally deliver more than 4
    absentee ballots in any election, unless
    the delivery agent is a nursing home or
    residential care facility administrator,
    an administrator designee, or a family
    member, each as authorized by this
    section.
    New Jersey   N.J. Stat. Ann. § 19:63-4(a) (West
    2015):
    A qualified voter is entitled to apply for
    and obtain a mail-in ballot by
    authorized messenger, who shall be so
    designated over the signature of the
    voter and whose printed name and
    address shall appear on the application
    in the space provided. The authorized
    messenger shall be a family member or
    a registered voter of the county in
    which the application is made and shall
    216     DNC V. HOBBS
    place his or her signature on the
    application in the space so provided in
    the presence of the county clerk or the
    designee thereof. No person shall serve
    as an authorized messenger or as a
    bearer for more than three qualified
    voters in an election. No person who is
    a candidate in the election for which the
    voter requests a mail-in ballot shall be
    permitted to serve as an authorized
    messenger or bearer. The authorized
    messenger shall show a photo
    identification card to the county clerk,
    or the designee thereof, at the time the
    messenger submits the application
    form. The county clerk or the designee
    thereof shall authenticate the signature
    of the authorized messenger in the
    event such a person is other than a
    family member, by comparing it with
    the signature of the person appearing on
    a State of New Jersey driver’s license,
    or other identification issued or
    recognized as official by the federal
    government, the State, or any of its
    political subdivisions, providing the
    identification carries the full address
    and signature of the person. After the
    authentication of the signature on the
    application, the county clerk or the
    designee thereof is authorized to deliver
    to the authorized messenger a ballot to
    be delivered to the qualified voter.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         217
    New Mexico   N.M. Stat. Ann. § 1-6-10.1 (West
    2019):
    A. A voter, caregiver to that voter or
    member of that voter’s immediate
    family may deliver that voter’s
    absentee ballot to the county clerk in
    person or by mail; provided that the
    voter has subscribed the official
    mailing envelope of the absentee ballot.
    B. As used in this section, “immediate
    family” means the spouse, children,
    parents or siblings of a voter.
    New York     N.Y. Elec. Law § 8-410 (McKinney
    2019):
    The absentee voter shall mark an
    absentee ballot as provided for paper
    ballots or ballots prepared for counting
    by ballot counting machines. He shall
    make no mark or writing whatsoever
    upon the ballot, except as above
    prescribed, and shall see that it bears no
    such mark or writing. He shall make no
    mark or writing whatsoever on the
    outside of the ballot. After marking the
    ballot or ballots he shall fold each such
    ballot and enclose them in the envelope
    and seal the envelope. He shall then
    take and subscribe the oath on the
    envelope, with blanks properly filled in.
    The envelope, containing the ballot or
    218                 DNC V. HOBBS
    ballots, shall then be mailed or
    delivered to the board of elections of
    the county or city of his residence.
    North Carolina   N.C. Gen. Stat. Ann.            § 163A-
    1310(b)(1) (West 2018):
    All ballots issued under the provisions
    of this Part and Part 2 of Article 21 of
    this Chapter shall be transmitted by
    mail or by commercial courier service,
    at the voter’s expense, or delivered in
    person, or by the voter’s near relative or
    verifiable legal guardian and received
    by the county board not later than 5:00
    p.m. on the day of the statewide
    primary or general election or county
    bond election. Ballots issued under the
    provisions of Part 2 of Article 21 of this
    Chapter may also be electronically
    transmitted.
    North Dakota     N.D. Cent. Code Ann. § 16.1-07-08(1)
    (West 2019):
    Upon receipt of an application for an
    official ballot properly filled out and
    duly signed, or as soon thereafter as the
    official ballot for the precinct in which
    the applicant resides has been prepared,
    the county auditor, city auditor, or
    business manager of the school district,
    as the case may be, shall send to the
    absent voter by mail, at the expense of
    DNC V. HOBBS                         219
    the political subdivision conducting the
    election, one official ballot, or
    personally deliver the ballot to the
    applicant or the applicant’s agent,
    which agent may not, at that time, be a
    candidate for any office to be voted
    upon by the absent voter. The agent
    shall sign the agent’s name before
    receiving the ballot and deposit with the
    auditor or business manager of the
    school district, as the case may be,
    authorization in writing from the
    applicant to receive the ballot or
    according to requirements set forth for
    signature by mark. The auditor or
    business manager of the school district,
    as the case may be, may not provide an
    absent voter’s ballot to a person acting
    as an agent who cannot provide a
    signed, written authorization from an
    applicant. No person may receive
    compensation, including money, goods,
    or services, for acting as an agent for an
    elector, nor may a person act as an
    agent for more than four electors in any
    one election. A voter voting by
    absentee ballot may not require the
    political subdivision providing the
    ballot to bear the expense of the return
    postage for an absentee ballot.
    220                  DNC V. HOBBS
    Northern          1 N. Mar. I. Code § 6212(a) (2010):
    Mariana Islands
    The Commission shall provide to any
    registered voter entitled to vote by
    absentee ballot and who applied for
    one, an official ballot, a ballot
    envelope, an affidavit prescribed by the
    Commission, and a reply envelope. The
    absentee voter shall mark the ballot in
    the usual manner provided by law and
    in a manner such that no other person
    can know how the ballot is marked. The
    absentee voter shall then deposit the
    ballot in the ballot envelope and
    securely seal it. The absentee voter
    shall then complete and execute the
    affidavit. The ballot envelope and the
    affidavit shall then be enclosed and
    sealed in the covering reply envelope
    and mailed via standard U.S. First Class
    Mail only or sent by commercial
    courier service to the commission at the
    expense of the voter. Such ballots and
    affidavits will not be counted by the
    Commission unless mailed. For the
    purpose of this part, the word “mailed”
    includes ballots and affidavits sent
    through the postal or courier services.
    Ohio              Ohio Rev. Code Ann. § 3509.05(A)
    (West 2016):
    The elector shall mail the identification
    envelope to the director from whom it
    DNC V. HOBBS                         221
    was received in the return envelope,
    postage prepaid, or the elector may
    personally deliver it to the director, or
    the spouse of the elector, the father,
    mother, father-in-law, mother-in-law,
    grandfather, grandmother, brother, or
    sister of the whole or half blood, or the
    son, daughter, adopting parent, adopted
    child, stepparent, stepchild, uncle, aunt,
    nephew, or niece of the elector may
    deliver it to the director.
    Oklahoma   Okla. Stat. Ann. tit. 26, § 14-108(C)
    (West 2019):
    Any voter who hand delivers his or her
    ballot as provided in subsection A of
    this section shall provide proof of
    identity to the county election board
    and shall hand deliver the ballot no
    later than the end of regular business
    hours on the day prior to the date of the
    election. For purposes of this section,
    “proof of identity” shall have the same
    meaning as used in subsection A of
    Section 7-114 of this title.
    Oregon     Or. Rev. Stat. Ann. § 254.470(6) (West
    2018):
    (6)(a) Upon receipt of any ballot
    described in this section, the elector
    shall mark the ballot, sign the return
    identification envelope supplied with
    222               DNC V. HOBBS
    the ballot and comply with the
    instructions provided with the ballot.
    (b) The elector may return the marked
    ballot to the county clerk by United
    States mail or by depositing the ballot
    at the office of the county clerk, at any
    place of deposit designated by the
    county clerk or at any location
    described in ORS 254.472 or 254.474.
    (c) The ballot must be returned in the
    return identification envelope. If the
    elector returns the ballot by mail, the
    elector must provide the postage.
    (d) Subject to paragraph (e) of this
    subsection, if a person returns a ballot
    for an elector, the person shall deposit
    the ballot in a manner described in
    paragraph (b) of this subsection not
    later than two days after receiving the
    ballot.
    Pennsylvania   25 Pa. Stat. and Cons. Stat. Ann.
    § 3146.6(a)(1) (West 2019) (footnote
    omitted):
    Any elector who submits an Emergency
    Application and receives an absentee
    ballot in accordance with section
    1302.1(a.2) or (c) shall mark the ballot
    on or before eight o’clock P.M. on the
    day of the primary or election. This
    DNC V. HOBBS                         223
    envelope shall then be placed in the
    second one, on which is printed the
    form of declaration of the elector, and
    the address of the elector’s county
    board of election and the local election
    district of the elector. The elector shall
    then fill out, date and sign the
    declaration printed on such envelope.
    Such envelope shall then be securely
    sealed and the elector shall send same
    by mail, postage prepaid, except where
    franked, or deliver it in person to said
    county board of election.
    Puerto Rico    P. R. Laws Ann. tit. 16, § 4177 (2010):
    Any voter entitled to vote as an
    absentee voter in a specific election, as
    established in § 4176 of this title, shall
    cast his/her vote in accordance with the
    procedure provided by the Commission
    through regulations. Only those
    absentee ballots sent on or before an
    election, and received on or before the
    last day of general canvass for that
    election, shall be considered validly
    cast pursuant to this Section. The
    Commission shall establish through
    regulations the manner in which the
    mailing date of absentee ballots shall be
    validated.
    Rhode Island   17 R.I. Gen. Laws Ann. § 17-20-2.1(d)
    (West 2019):
    224     DNC V. HOBBS
    In addition to those requirements set
    forth elsewhere in this chapter, a mail
    ballot, in order to be valid, must have
    been cast in conformance with the
    following procedures:
    (1) All mail ballots issued pursuant to
    subdivision 17-20-2(1) shall be mailed
    to the elector at the Rhode Island
    address provided by the elector on the
    application. In order to be valid, the
    signature on all certifying envelopes
    containing a voted ballot must be made
    before a notary public or before two (2)
    witnesses who shall set forth their
    addresses on the form.
    (2) All applications for mail ballots
    pursuant to § 17-20-2(2) must state
    under oath the name and location of the
    hospital, convalescent home, nursing
    home, or similar institution where the
    elector is confined. All mail ballots
    issued pursuant to subdivision 17-20-
    2(2) shall be delivered to the elector at
    the hospital, convalescent home,
    nursing home, or similar institution
    where the elector is confined; and the
    ballots shall be voted and witnessed in
    conformance with the provisions of
    § 17-20-14.
    DNC V. HOBBS                         225
    (3) All mail ballots issued pursuant to
    subdivision 17-20-2(3) shall be mailed
    to the address provided by the elector
    on the application or sent to the board
    of canvassers in the city or town where
    the elector maintains his or her voting
    residence. In order to be valid, the
    signature of the elector on the certifying
    envelope containing voted ballots does
    not need to be notarized or witnessed.
    Any voter qualified to receive a mail
    ballot pursuant to subdivision 17-20-
    2(3) shall also be entitled to cast a
    ballot pursuant to the provisions of
    United States Public Law 99-410
    (“UOCAVA Act”).
    (4) All mail ballots issued pursuant to
    subdivision 17-20-2(4) may be mailed
    to the elector at the address within the
    United States provided by the elector
    on the application or sent to the board
    of canvassers in the city or town where
    the elector maintains his or her voting
    residence. In order to be valid, the
    signature on all certifying envelopes
    containing a voted ballot must be made
    before a notary public, or other person
    authorized by law to administer oaths
    where signed, or where the elector
    voted, or before two (2) witnesses who
    shall set forth their addresses on the
    form. In order to be valid, all ballots
    226                 DNC V. HOBBS
    sent to the elector at the board of
    canvassers must be voted in
    conformance with the provisions of
    § 17-20-14.2.
    South Carolina   S.C. Code Ann. § 7-15-385 (2019):
    Upon receipt of the ballot or ballots, the
    absentee ballot applicant must mark
    each ballot on which he wishes to vote
    and place each ballot in the single
    envelope marked “Ballot Herein”
    which in turn must be placed in the
    return-addressed envelope. The
    applicant must then return the return-
    addressed envelope to the board of
    voter registration and elections by mail,
    by personal delivery, or by authorizing
    another person to return the envelope
    for him. The authorization must be
    given in writing on a form prescribed
    by the State Election Commission and
    must be turned in to the board of voter
    registration and elections at the time the
    envelope is returned. The voter must
    sign the form, or in the event the voter
    cannot write because of a physical
    handicap or illiteracy, the voter must
    make his mark and have the mark
    witnessed by someone designated by
    the voter. The authorization must be
    preserved as part of the record of the
    election, and the board of voter
    registration and elections must note the
    DNC V. HOBBS                       227
    authorization and the name of the
    authorized returnee in the record book
    required by Section 7-15-330. A
    candidate or a member of a candidate’s
    paid campaign staff including
    volunteers reimbursed for time
    expended on campaign activity is not
    permitted to serve as an authorized
    returnee for any person unless the
    person is a member of the voter’s
    immediate family as defined in Section
    7-15-310. The oath set forth in Section
    7-15-380 must be signed and witnessed
    on each returned envelope. The board
    of voter registration and elections must
    record in the record book required by
    Section 7-15-330 the date the return-
    addressed envelope with witnessed oath
    and enclosed ballot or ballots is
    received by the board. The board must
    securely store the envelopes in a locked
    box within the office of the board of
    voter registration and elections.
    South Dakota   S.D. Codified Laws § 12-19-2.2 (2019):
    If a person is an authorized messenger
    for more than one voter, he must notify
    the person in charge of the election of
    all voters for whom he is a messenger.
    Tennessee      Tenn. Code Ann. § 2-6-202(e) (West
    2017):
    228        DNC V. HOBBS
    After receiving the absentee voting
    supplies and completing the ballot, the
    voter shall sign the appropriate affidavit
    under penalty of perjury. The effect of
    the signature is to verify the
    information as true and correct and that
    the voter is eligible to vote in the
    election. The voter shall then mail the
    ballot.
    Texas   Tex. Elec. Code Ann. § 86.006(f) (West
    2017) (footnote omitted):
    A person commits an offense if the
    person knowingly possesses an official
    ballot or official carrier envelope
    provided under this code to another.
    Unless the person possessed the ballot
    or carrier envelope with intent to
    defraud the voter or the election
    authority, this subsection does not
    apply to a person who, on the date of
    the offense, was:
    (1) related to the voter within the
    second degree by affinity or the third
    degree by consanguinity, as determined
    under Subchapter B, Chapter 573,
    Government Code;
    (2) physically living in the same
    dwelling as the voter;
    DNC V. HOBBS                          229
    (3) an early voting clerk or a deputy
    early voting clerk;
    (4) a person who possesses a ballot or
    carrier envelope solely for the purpose
    of lawfully assisting a voter who was
    eligible for assistance under Section
    86.010 and complied fully with:
    (A) Section 86.010; and
    (B) Section 86.0051, if assistance was
    provided in order to deposit the
    envelope in the mail or with a common
    or contract carrier;
    (5) an employee of the United States
    Postal Service working in the normal
    course of the employee’s authorized
    duties; or
    (6) a common or contract carrier
    working in the normal course of the
    carrier’s authorized duties if the official
    ballot is sealed in an official carrier
    envelope that is accompanied by an
    individual delivery receipt for that
    particular carrier envelope.
    Texas   Tex. Elec. Code Ann. § 86.0052(a)(1)
    (West 2013) (making it a crime if a
    person “compensates another person for
    depositing the carrier envelope in the
    mail or with a common or contract
    230       DNC V. HOBBS
    carrier as provided by Section
    86.0051(b), as part of any performance-
    based compensation scheme based on
    the number of ballots deposited or in
    which another person is presented with
    a quota of ballots to deposit”).
    Utah   Utah Code Ann. § 20A-3-306 (West
    2019):
    (1)(a) Except as provided by Section
    20A-1-308, to vote a mail-in absentee
    ballot, the absentee voter shall:
    (i) complete and sign the affidavit on
    the envelope;
    (ii) mark the votes on the absentee
    ballot;
    (iii) place the voted absentee ballot in
    the envelope;
    (iv) securely seal the envelope; and
    (v) attach postage, unless voting in
    accordance with Section 20A-3-302,
    and deposit the envelope in the mail or
    deliver it in person to the election
    officer from whom the ballot was
    obtained.
    (b) Except as provided by Section 20A-
    1-308, to vote an absentee ballot in
    DNC V. HOBBS                         231
    person at the office of the election
    officer, the absent voter shall:
    (i) complete and sign the affidavit on
    the envelope;
    (ii) mark the votes on the absent-voter
    ballot;
    (iii) place the voted absent-voter ballot
    in the envelope;
    (iv) securely seal the envelope; and
    (v) give the ballot and envelope to the
    election officer.
    (2) Except as provided by Section 20A-
    1-308, an absentee ballot is not valid
    unless:
    (a) in the case of an absentee ballot that
    is voted in person, the ballot is:
    (i) applied for and cast in person at the
    office of the appropriate election officer
    before 5 p.m. no later than the Tuesday
    before election day; or
    (ii) submitted on election day at a
    polling location in the political
    subdivision where the absentee voter
    resides;
    232          DNC V. HOBBS
    (b) in the case of an absentee ballot that
    is submitted by mail, the ballot is:
    (i) clearly postmarked before election
    day, or otherwise clearly marked by the
    post office as received by the post
    office before election day; and
    (ii) received in the office of the election
    officer before noon on the day of the
    official canvass following the election;
    or
    (c) in the case of a military-overseas
    ballot, the ballot is submitted in
    accordance with Section 20A-16-404.
    (3) An absentee voter may submit a
    completed absentee ballot at a polling
    location in a political subdivision
    holding the election, if the absentee
    voter resides in the political
    subdivision.
    (4) An absentee voter may submit an
    incomplete absentee ballot at a polling
    location for the voting precinct where
    the voter resides, request that the ballot
    be declared spoiled, and vote in person.
    Vermont   Vt. Stat. Ann. tit. 17, § 2543 (West
    2019):
    DNC V. HOBBS                         233
    (a) After marking the ballots and
    signing the certificate on the envelope,
    the early or absentee voter to whom the
    same are addressed shall return the
    ballots to the clerk of the town in which
    he or she is a voter, in the manner
    prescribed, except that in the case of a
    voter to whom ballots are delivered by
    justices, the ballots shall be returned to
    the justices calling upon him or her, and
    they shall deliver them to the town
    clerk.
    (b) Once an early voter absentee ballot
    has been returned to the clerk in the
    envelope with the signed certificate, it
    shall be stored in a secure place and
    shall not be returned to the voter for
    any reason.
    (c) If a ballot includes more than one
    page, the early or absentee voter need
    only return the page upon which the
    voter has marked his or her vote.
    (d)(1) All early voter absentee ballots
    returned as follows shall be counted:
    (A) by any means, to the town clerk’s
    office before the close of business on
    the day preceding the election;
    234                 DNC V. HOBBS
    (B) by mail, to the town clerk’s office
    before the close of the polls on the day
    of the election; and
    (C) by hand delivery to the presiding
    officer at the voter’s polling place.
    (2) An early voter absentee ballot
    returned in a manner other than those
    set forth in subdivision (1) of this
    subsection shall not be counted.
    Virgin Islands   V.I. Code Ann. tit. 18, § 665 (2018):
    (a) An absentee who has received an
    absentee ballot may vote by mailing or
    causing to be delivered to the board of
    elections for the proper election district
    such ballot marked and sworn to, as
    follows:
    After marking the ballot, the voter shall
    enclose and seal it in the envelope
    provided for that purpose. He shall then
    swear and subscribe to a self-
    administered oath which shall be
    provided to the absentee on a printed
    form along with the absentee ballot and
    he shall further execute the affidavit on
    such envelope and shall enclose and
    seal the envelope containing the ballot
    in the return mailing envelope printed,
    as provided in paragraph 3 of
    subsection (a) of section 663 of this
    DNC V. HOBBS                        235
    title, with the name and address of the
    board of elections for the election
    district in which he desires to vote,
    endorse thereon his name and return
    address, and shall then mail the
    envelope, or cause it to be delivered, to
    the board of elections; provided that
    such envelope must be received by the
    board no later than ten days after the
    day of election for the absentee vote to
    be counted. Absentee ballots received
    from overseas in franked envelopes, or
    from persons who are members of the
    Uniformed Services of the United
    States or a spouse of any member of the
    Uniformed Services of the United
    States, shall be counted if they are
    received by the board no later than ten
    (10) days after the day of the election.
    In the case of a recount authorized by
    the board, any ballot received by the
    board no later than 5 p.m. the day
    before the recount shall be counted.
    (b) Any envelope containing an
    absentee ballot mistakenly mailed by
    the absentee voter to the Supervisor of
    Elections contrary to the provisions of
    this section shall be mailed or delivered
    by the Supervisor of Elections to the
    proper board of elections if it can be so
    mailed or delivered by him before the
    time for the closing of the polls on the
    236           DNC V. HOBBS
    day of election, and if the proper board
    can be determined without breaking
    open the inner envelope containing the
    ballot.
    (c) All mailing envelopes containing
    absentee ballots received by a board of
    elections under this section, whether
    received in sufficient time for the
    ballots to be counted as provided in this
    chapter, or not, shall be stamped or
    endorsed by a member of the board or
    the clerk with the date of their receipt in
    the board’s office, and, if received on
    the day of election, with the actual time
    of day received, and such record shall
    be signed or initialed by the board
    member or clerk making it.
    Virginia   Va. Code Ann. § 24.2-707(A) (West
    2019):
    After the voter has marked his absentee
    ballot, he shall (a) enclose the ballot in
    the envelope provided for that purpose,
    (b) seal the envelope, (c) fill in and sign
    the statement printed on the back of the
    envelope in the presence of a witness,
    who shall sign the same envelope,
    (d) enclose the ballot envelope and any
    required assistance form within the
    envelope directed to the general
    registrar, and (e) seal that envelope and
    mail it to the office of the general
    DNC V. HOBBS                         237
    registrar or deliver it personally to the
    general registrar. A voter’s failure to
    provide in the statement on the back of
    the envelope his full middle name or
    his middle initial shall not be a material
    omission, rendering his ballot void,
    unless the voter failed to provide in the
    statement on the back of the envelope
    his full first and last name. A voter’s
    failure to provide the date, or any part
    of the date, including the year, on
    which he signed the statement printed
    on the back of the envelope shall not be
    considered a material omission and
    shall not render his ballot void. For
    purposes of this chapter, “mail” shall
    include delivery by a commercial
    delivery service, but shall not include
    delivery by a personal courier service
    or another individual except as
    provided by §§ 24.2-703.2 and 24.2-
    705.
    Washington   Wash. Rev. Code Ann.
    § 29A.40.091(4) (West 2019):
    The voter must be instructed to either
    return the ballot to the county auditor
    no later than 8:00 p.m. the day of the
    election or primary, or mail the ballot to
    the county auditor with a postmark no
    later than the day of the election or
    primary. Return envelopes for all
    election ballots must include prepaid
    238                DNC V. HOBBS
    postage. Service and overseas voters
    must be provided with instructions and
    a privacy sheet for returning the ballot
    and signed declaration by fax or email.
    A voted ballot and signed declaration
    returned by fax or email must be
    received by 8:00 p.m. on the day of the
    election or primary.
    West Virginia   W. Va. Code Ann. § 3-3-5(k) (West
    2010):
    Absentee ballots which are hand
    delivered are to be accepted if they are
    received by the official designated to
    supervise and conduct absentee voting
    no later than the day preceding the
    election: Provided, That no person may
    hand deliver more than two absentee
    ballots in any election and any person
    hand delivering an absentee ballot is
    required to certify that he or she has not
    examined or altered the ballot. Any
    person who makes a false certification
    violates the provisions of article nine of
    this chapter and is subject to those
    provisions.
    Wisconsin       Wis. Stat. Ann. § 6.87(4)(b) (West
    2019):
    The envelope shall be mailed by the
    elector, or delivered in person, to the
    DNC V. HOBBS                      239
    municipal clerk issuing the ballot or
    ballots.
    Wyoming   Wyo. Stat. Ann. § 22-9-113 (West
    2019):
    Upon receipt, a qualified elector shall
    mark the ballot and sign the affidavit.
    The ballot shall then be sealed in the
    inner ballot envelope and mailed or
    delivered to the clerk.