Gerald Von Tobel v. James Benedetti ( 2020 )


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  •                      FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    GERALD VON TOBEL,                                  No. 18-15892
    Petitioner-Appellant,
    D.C. No.
    v.                           3:10-cv-00073-
    LRH-VPC
    JAMES BENEDETTI; ATTORNEY
    GENERAL FOR THE STATE OF
    NEVADA,                                              OPINION
    Respondents-Appellees.
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Nevada
    Larry R. Hicks, District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted December 2, 2019
    San Francisco, California
    Filed September 14, 2020
    Before: Eugene E. Siler, * Jay S. Bybee, and
    Ryan D. Nelson, Circuit Judges.
    Opinion by Judge Siler
    *
    The Honorable Eugene E. Siler, United States Circuit Judge for the
    U.S. Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, sitting by designation.
    2                   VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    SUMMARY **
    Habeas Corpus
    The panel withdrew a memorandum disposition filed
    January 9, 2020; filed a published opinion affirming the
    district court’s denial of Nevada state prisoner Gerald Von
    Tobel’s habeas corpus petition; denied a petition for
    rehearing; and denied on behalf of the court a petition for
    rehearing en banc, in a case in which a juror, during the trial,
    had a conversation with a police-officer neighbor who told
    the juror something to the effect that a defendant in a
    criminal trial would not be there if he had not done
    something wrong.
    Von Tobel contended that the test used by the Nevada
    Supreme Court to evaluate juror misconduct in his case was
    “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law,” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1),
    because it placed a more onerous burden on him to prove
    prejudice than under the applicable Supreme Court
    precedent and because it did not presume that the contact
    was prejudicial.
    The panel observed that there was no decision of the
    United States Supreme Court that precludes the Nevada
    Supreme Court from requiring the petitioner to show a
    reasonable probability or likelihood that the contact affected
    the verdict. Applying AEDPA’s highly deferential standard,
    the panel therefore concluded that the Nevada Supreme
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It
    has been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                     3
    Court’s test to evaluate juror misconduct—and the
    application of it in this case—is not contrary to, nor does it
    involve an unreasonable application of, clearly established
    Federal law.
    COUNSEL
    Kimberly Sandberg (argued), Jonathan Kirshbaum, and
    Ryan Norwood, Assistant Federal Public Defenders; Rene
    L. Valladares, Federal Public Defender; Office of the
    Federal Public Defender, Las Vegas, Nevada; for Petitioner-
    Appellant.
    Natasha M. Gebrael (argued) and Ashley A. Balducci,
    Deputy Attorneys General; Aaron D. Ford, Attorney
    General, Office of the Attorney General, Las Vegas,
    Nevada; for Respondents-Appellees.
    ORDER
    The memorandum disposition filed January 9, 2020 is
    withdrawn. A published opinion authored by Judge Siler is
    filed concurrently with this order.
    The panel judges have voted to deny appellant’s petition
    for rehearing.
    Judge R. Nelson voted to deny the petition for rehearing
    en banc, and Judges Siler and Bybee recommended denying
    the petition for rehearing en banc.
    4                 VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    The full court has been advised of the petition for
    rehearing en banc and no judge has requested a vote on
    whether to rehear the matter en banc. Fed. R. App. P. 35.
    Appellant’s petition for rehearing and petition for
    rehearing en banc, filed March 24, 2020, is DENIED.
    OPINION
    SILER, Circuit Judge:
    Gerald Von Tobel, a Nevada state prisoner, appeals from
    the district court’s denial of his petition for a writ of habeas
    corpus. During Von Tobel’s trial, one of the jurors had a
    conversation with a neighbor who is a police officer about
    difficulties the juror was having in the case. Sometime
    during the conversation, the police officer neighbor told the
    juror something to the effect that a defendant in a criminal
    trial would not be there if he had not done something wrong.
    In evaluating this contact on direct appeal, the Nevada
    Supreme Court applied its own test for evaluating juror
    misconduct and concluded that Von Tobel had not met his
    burden to show prejudice. In his petition for a writ of habeas
    corpus, Von Tobel contends that the test used by the Nevada
    Supreme Court to evaluate juror misconduct in his case was
    “contrary to, or involved an unreasonable application of,
    clearly established Federal law,” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d)(1),
    because it placed a more onerous burden on him to prove
    prejudice than under the applicable Supreme Court
    precedent and because it did not presume that the contact
    was prejudicial. We hold that the Nevada Supreme Court’s
    test to evaluate juror misconduct—and the application of it
    in Von Tobel’s case—is not contrary to, nor does it involve
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                            5
    an unreasonable application of, clearly established Federal
    law and we affirm the district court’s denial of Von Tobel’s
    habeas petition.
    I.
    Von Tobel was convicted in 2005 of numerous counts of
    physical and sexual abuse of his girlfriend’s three children.
    At trial, the only direct evidence of abuse was the testimony
    of the children.          Their testimony included some
    inconsistencies, such as not remembering incidents of abuse
    that they had previously disclosed. Von Tobel testified and
    denied the allegations.
    The jury deliberated across four days for a total of around
    twenty hours. During deliberations, the jury sent several
    notes to the judge indicating they were having trouble
    reaching a verdict on some of the charges. Each time the
    judge instructed them to continue deliberating. The jury
    eventually reached a unanimous verdict on all counts,
    finding Von Tobel guilty on twenty-five counts (one of
    which was not guilty but guilty of a lesser offense) and not
    guilty on one count. 1
    After the jury was released, the judge invited them to
    “stay and chat” with the attorneys to “discuss the case.”
    When asked what factors in the case had an impact on the
    verdict, Juror No. 200 stated: “It’s like my neighbor, who is
    a cop, always says, ‘[h]e wouldn’t be here if he didn’t do
    something.’” This comment resulted in a motion for a new
    trial and an evidentiary hearing.
    1
    In addition, one count had been previously withdrawn by the State.
    6                 VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    At the evidentiary hearing, Juror No. 200 was called as a
    witness. He clarified that the conversation with his neighbor
    occurred during trial, prior to deliberations. Juror No. 200
    said that he barely knew his neighbor and that he believed
    that his neighbor worked for a different police department
    than the one involved in the case. Juror No. 200 explained
    that the conversation with his neighbor occurred when he
    went out to the community mailbox in his neighborhood and
    ran into his neighbor. He told the neighbor “[y]ou know, I
    don’t know how you put up with this stuff that you have to
    do with.” The neighbor replied “oh[] [i]t’s just [what] you
    have to do.” Juror No. 200 then said that he was on jury duty
    and having a tough time because “stuff that’s going on here
    that just makes me sick. Matter of fact, I have a hard time
    sleepin’ with it as a result of it.” During the conversation,
    the neighbor told Juror No. 200 about an unrelated case in a
    different jurisdiction where “a kid got killed in a gang
    something or other” and some people had already “plead out
    [and were] serving time while others were waiting to go to
    Court.” Sometime during the conversation—Juror No. 200
    does not remember when—the neighbor said something to
    the effect of “if they’re here, they’re here for a reason” or
    that “[h]e wouldn’t be here if he didn’t do something.”
    During the evidentiary hearing, Juror No. 200 stated that
    he: (1) understood the presumption of innocence and that it
    applied to Von Tobel; (2) did not make up his mind about
    Von Tobel’s guilt before deliberations; and (3) changed his
    mind several times about Von Tobel’s guilt during
    deliberations. Regarding the conversation with his neighbor,
    Juror No. 200 said that: (1) it did not affect his ability to keep
    an open mind while hearing the evidence; (2) he did not
    conclude from his neighbor’s comment that Von Tobel must
    have done something otherwise he would not be in court;
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                     7
    and (3) the conversation had no influence on his thought
    process, on how he viewed the evidence, or on the verdict.
    The court found that Juror No. 200 violated the court’s
    order not to discuss the case. But the court denied Von
    Tobel’s motion for a new trial, explaining that Juror No. 200
    “never swayed in his belief that he was obligated to listen to
    the facts and the evidence in this case, and render a verdict
    only after he listened to all of the witnesses, saw all of the
    evidence, and began deliberation with his fellow jurors.”
    The court added that Juror No. 200 “never wa[i]vered with
    respect to the presumption of innocence,” did not have a
    preconceived idea about Von Tobel’s guilt, and that the
    conversation with his neighbor “did not affect his belief or
    reliance upon the presumption of innocence.” Finally, the
    court concluded that there was no evidence that Juror No.
    200 discussed the nature of the case with his neighbor, or
    that the conversation had any influence on the determination
    of guilt or on the presumption of innocence.
    On appeal, the Nevada Supreme Court conducted a de
    novo review of the trial court’s decision. The test for
    allegations of juror misconduct in Nevada comes from
    Meyer v. State, 
    80 P.3d 447
    (Nev. 2003). Under it, a motion
    for a new trial based on allegations of juror misconduct has
    the burden to show that (1) the misconduct occurred and
    (2) the misconduct prejudiced the defendant.
    Id. at 455.
    When the misconduct is egregious, the Nevada Supreme
    Court applies a conclusive presumption of prejudice without
    any showing of prejudice.
    Id. When the misconduct
    is not
    egregious, the defendant must prove prejudice by showing
    that, in reviewing the trial as a whole, there was “a
    reasonable probability or likelihood that the juror
    misconduct affected the verdict.”
    Id. at 456. 8
                   VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    The Nevada Supreme Court found that Juror No. 200
    committed misconduct. Von Tobel v. State, No. 45684, at *3
    (Nev. Feb. 29, 2008). But it determined that this was not an
    egregious case—triggering the conclusive presumption of
    prejudice—because Juror No. 200 did not discuss the facts
    of the case with his neighbor.
    Id. As a non-egregious
    case,
    Von Tobel had the burden to show prejudice.
    Id. The Nevada Supreme
    Court concluded that Von Tobel failed to
    show a reasonable probability that exposure to the
    neighbor’s opinion affected the verdict because: (1) the
    conversation did not include any details of the case; (2) jury
    instructions occurred after the conversation; and (3) the jury
    was instructed on the presumption of innocence and jurors
    are presumed to have followed the judge’s instructions.
    Id. at 4–5.
    Von Tobel filed a habeas petition in the district court
    arguing that the Nevada Supreme Court’s test from Meyer—
    both itself and as applied here—was contrary to clearly
    established federal law. Specifically, we have held that a test
    derived from two Supreme Court cases from 1892 and 1954
    constitutes clearly established federal law for evaluating a
    juror’s contact with an outside party. Godoy v. Spearman,
    
    861 F.3d 956
    , 964 (9th Cir. 2017) (en banc); see Remmer v.
    United States, 
    347 U.S. 227
    (1954); Mattox v. United States,
    
    146 U.S. 140
    (1892). Thus, Von Tobel contended that the
    Meyer test itself and as applied to him was contrary to, or an
    unreasonable application of, Mattox and Remmer because it
    placed a more onerous burden on him to prove prejudice and
    it did not presume that Juror No. 200’s contact with his
    neighbor was prejudicial.
    The district court reviewed the burden on the defendant
    under Meyer and under Mattox/Remmer and found them
    similar enough that Meyer was not clearly contrary to
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                      9
    Mattox/Remmer. The district court also found that no
    contrary decision of the Supreme Court prevented the
    Nevada Supreme Court from concluding that Juror No.
    200’s contact with his neighbor was non-egregious—thus
    not triggering a presumption of prejudice. Finally, the
    district court noted that Godoy approvingly cited Tarango v.
    McDaniel, 
    837 F.3d 936
    (9th Cir. 2016)—and a footnote in
    
    Tarango, 837 F.3d at 950
    n.13, can be read as suggesting
    that that the Meyer test is compatible with clearly established
    federal law—undercutting the contention that at the time of
    the Nevada Supreme Court’s decision in 2008, Meyer was
    clearly incompatible with Mattox/Remmer.
    II.
    A district court’s denial of a petition for habeas corpus
    under 28 U.S.C. § 2254 is reviewed de novo. Dows v. Wood,
    
    211 F.3d 480
    , 484 (9th Cir. 2000). A federal court cannot
    grant a petition for habeas corpus to a prisoner in state
    custody for a claim that was adjudicated on the merits in state
    court unless the adjudication of the claim (1) “resulted in a
    decision that was contrary to, or involved an unreasonable
    application of, clearly established Federal law, as
    determined by the Supreme Court of the United States” or
    (2) “resulted in a decision that was based on an unreasonable
    determination of the facts in light of the evidence presented
    in the State court proceeding.” 28 U.S.C. § 2254(d). A state
    court decision is “contrary to” Supreme Court precedent “if
    the state court arrives at a conclusion opposite to that reached
    by [the Supreme] Court on a question of law or if the state
    court decides a case differently than [the Supreme] Court has
    on a set of materially indistinguishable facts.” Williams v.
    Taylor, 
    529 U.S. 362
    , 412–13 (2000). “An unreasonable
    application of clearly established federal law must be
    ‘objectively unreasonable, not merely wrong; even clear
    10               VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    error will not suffice.’” Rowland v. Chappell, 
    876 F.3d 1174
    , 1181 (9th Cir. 2017) (quoting White v. Woodall,
    
    572 U.S. 415
    , 419 (2014)). Rather, “a state prisoner must
    show that the state court’s ruling on the claim being
    presented in federal court was so lacking in justification that
    there was an error well understood and comprehended in
    existing law beyond any possibility for fairminded
    disagreement.”
    Id. (quoting Woodall, 572
    U.S. at 419–20).
    “If Supreme Court precedent does not provide a ‘clear
    answer to the question presented,’ the state court’s decision
    cannot be contrary to, or have unreasonably applied, clearly
    established federal law.” Turner v. McEwen, 
    819 F.3d 1171
    ,
    1176 (9th Cir. 2016) (quoting Wright v. Van Patten, 
    552 U.S. 120
    , 126 (2008) (per curiam)).
    We review “the last reasoned state court decision to
    address the claim[s].” White v. Ryan, 
    895 F.3d 641
    , 665 (9th
    Cir. 2018). Here, the last such decision is the Nevada
    Supreme Court’s denial of Von Tobel’s direct appeal.
    A.
    After the Nevada Supreme Court’s decision in this case,
    this court recognized that a two-part test derived from two
    Supreme Court cases—Remmer and Mattox—constitutes
    clearly established federal law for analyzing improper
    contacts between jurors and outside parties. See 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 964
    . Von Tobel contends that the test from
    Meyer, used by the Nevada Supreme Court to evaluate the
    contact between Juror No. 200 and his neighbor is contrary
    to, or an unreasonable application of, the Mattox/Remmer
    test. It is not.
    The Nevada Supreme Court did not use the
    Mattox/Remmer framework to analyze the contact between
    Juror No. 200 and his neighbor. Neither case is cited in its
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                         11
    opinion, but this is not required. See Early v. Packer,
    
    537 U.S. 3
    , 8 (2002) (per curiam). Instead, it applied its own
    test for analyzing juror misconduct, such as a juror’s having
    contact with a third-party, which it developed in Meyer. 2
    Under Meyer, the defendant must show that the misconduct
    (1) occurred and (2) prejudiced 
    him. 80 P.3d at 455
    . To
    show prejudice, the defendant must show that “there is a
    reasonable probability or likelihood that the juror
    misconduct affected the verdict.”
    Id. In egregious cases,
    such as jury tampering, prejudice is conclusively presumed
    without the defendant’s having to show prejudice; in non-
    egregious cases, the defendant has the burden to show
    prejudice.
    Id. at 455–56.
    Because of the obvious structural differences between
    these two tests, we begin by comparing them before
    considering the defendant’s burden under each. The first
    step of the Meyer test—that the misconduct occurred—is not
    explicitly part of the Mattox/Remmer framework. Instead it
    is an implicit “step zero” in the analysis because
    Mattox/Remmer step one presupposes that there was a
    contact, since it asks “whether the contact was ‘possibly
    prejudicial.’” See 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 962
    (quoting 
    Mattox, 146 U.S. at 150
    ). Thus, Meyer step one is consistent with
    the Mattox/Remmer framework.
    The second step of Meyer—that the misconduct
    prejudiced the defendant—differs depending on whether the
    extrinsic influence on the juror was egregious or not. If
    egregious, prejudice is conclusively presumed and the
    defendant does not have to make any showing of prejudice.
    
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    . If not egregious, the burden is on the
    2
    Meyer cites to Remmer but not Mattox. See 
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    n.23, n.26.
    12               VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    defendant to show “a reasonable probability or likelihood
    that the juror misconduct affected the verdict.”
    Id. Meyer step two,
    then, is analogous to Mattox/Remmer step one as
    they both ask whether there was prejudice. Meyer’s placing
    the burden on the defendant to show prejudice is consistent
    with Mattox/Remmer. See 
    Remmer, 347 U.S. at 228
    –29 (not
    specifically addressing who has the burden but stating that
    the defendant submitted evidence in support of his motion);
    
    Mattox, 146 U.S. at 142
    (same); see also 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    (stating that the defendant must present evidence of a
    prejudicial contact at step one).
    Von Tobel contends that Meyer is contrary to
    Mattox/Remmer because it placed a more onerous burden on
    him to show prejudice. Von Tobel misreads Meyer. Meyer
    only requires the petitioner to show “a reasonable probability
    or likelihood that the juror misconduct affected the verdict”
    in order to prevail on a motion for a new 
    trial. 80 P.3d at 455
    . The Nevada Supreme Court had defined a
    reasonable probability as a “probability sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome.” Lobato v. State,
    
    96 P.3d 765
    , 772 (Nev. 2004) (quoting Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 694 (1984)). In Godoy, we
    described the petitioner’s burden under Mattox/Remmer as
    requiring the petitioner to present “evidence of an external
    contact that has a tendency to be injurious to the defendant”
    or “evidence of a contact sufficiently improper as to raise a
    credible risk of affecting the outcome of the 
    case.” 861 F.3d at 967
    (internal quotation marks and citations omitted). “[A]
    probability sufficient to undermine confidence in the
    outcome,” 
    Lobato, 96 P.3d at 772
    , is similar to “rais[ing] a
    credible risk of affecting the outcome,” 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    . And, most importantly, neither Mattox nor Remmer
    precisely delineates the petitioner’s burden. So, even if the
    burdens under Meyer and Godoy are different, there was no
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                     13
    decision of the Supreme Court that precludes the Nevada
    Supreme Court from requiring the petitioner to show a
    reasonable probability or likelihood that the contact affected
    the verdict. See Wright v. Van Patten, 
    552 U.S. 120
    , 126
    (2008) (per curiam) (stating that Supreme Court cases must
    give a “clear answer to the question presented” to be clearly
    established federal law).
    1.
    We emphasize that what we have said beyond what the
    Supreme Court has held to “refine or sharpen” a defendant’s
    burden is not clearly established Federal law. Lopez v.
    Smith, 
    574 U.S. 1
    , 7 (2014) (per curiam) (quoting Marshall
    v. Rodgers, 
    569 U.S. 58
    , 64 (2013) (per curiam)). Our
    various formulations of Mattox/Remmer step one to require
    that the contact “raise[] a risk of,” Caliendo v. Warden of
    Cal. Men’s Colony, 
    365 F.3d 691
    , 697 (9th Cir. 2004), “raise
    a credible risk of,” 
    Tarango, 837 F.3d at 947
    , or be
    “sufficiently improper as to raise a credible risk of,” 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    , “influencing the verdict” or “affecting the
    outcome of the case,” 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    , do not appear
    in Mattox/Remmer or any Supreme Court precedent and are
    thus not clearly established Federal law. See Parker v.
    Matthews, 
    567 U.S. 37
    , 48–49 (2012) (per curiam). As a
    result, Von Tobel cannot invoke our more precise
    formulations of the defendant’s burden to claim that the
    Nevada Supreme Court’s formulation is more onerous than
    our formulation, and thus contrary to Mattox/Remmer. See
    id.; 
    Smith, 574 U.S. at 6
    –7.
    Mattox does not make clear how much of a “tendency. . .
    [to be] injurious to the defendant” is required; that is, how
    certain or likely prejudice has to be for the defendant to meet
    his 
    burden. 146 U.S. at 150
    . As a result, a defendant’s
    burden under Meyer falls within the range allowed by
    14                  VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    Supreme Court precedent. There is no clearly established
    Supreme Court precedent which holds that a defendant’s
    burden to show that a contact was “possibly prejudicial” is
    less onerous than “a reasonable probability or likelihood that
    the juror misconduct affected the verdict,” 
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    , or “a probability sufficient to undermine confidence in
    the outcome,” 
    Lobato, 96 P.3d at 772
    (quoting 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    ).
    Our cases further articulating the defendant’s burden
    confirm this conclusion. We believe our explanations of the
    defendant’s burden under Mattox/Remmer are consistent
    with, and faithful interpretations of, Supreme Court
    precedent. In explaining the defendant’s burden, we have
    repeatedly recognized the contribution that Smith v. Phillips,
    
    455 U.S. 209
    (1982), has made to the Mattox/Remmer
    framework at step one. 3 See 
    Caliendo, 365 F.3d at 696
    ; see
    also Clark v. Chappell, 
    936 F.3d 944
    , 970 (9th Cir. 2019);
    
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    ; 
    Tarango, 837 F.3d at 947
    . Our
    cases addressing the defendant’s burden largely focus on
    incorporating Phillips into step one of the framework. See
    
    Clark, 936 F.3d at 944
    (citing Phillips before concluding that
    a defendant is required to show a “sufficiently improper”
    contact that “gives rise to a ‘credible risk of affecting the
    outcome of the case’” (quoting 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    ));
    
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    (reviewing Phillips before
    formulating the defendant’s burden as requiring the
    3
    That Phillips affected the Mattox/Remmer framework is consistent
    with our statement in Godoy that “[Phillips] left Mattox and Remmer
    intact.” 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 964
    n.3. In that footnote, we were
    considering whether the Mattox/Remmer two-step framework continued
    to exist post-Phillips.
    Id. We held that
    the framework still existed.
    Id. We certainly did
    not hold that Phillips had no effect on the framework
    in the footnote, as we also relied on Phillips to clarify the defendant’s
    step-one burden.
    Id. at 967.
                     VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                     15
    defendant to “present evidence of a contact sufficiently
    improper as to raise a credible risk of affecting the outcome
    of the case”); 
    Tarango, 837 F.3d at 936
    (noting Phillips
    before concluding that “‘prosaic kinds of jury misconduct’
    do not trigger a presumption of prejudice” (quoting 
    Dutkel, 192 F.3d at 894
    –95)); 
    Caliendo, 365 F.3d at 696
    –97
    (reviewing Phillips and another case as support for the
    conclusion that a defendant must show that the contact
    “raises a risk of influencing the verdict”). After providing
    several variations of the defendant’s burden, in Godoy we
    settled on requiring a defendant to show that the contact was
    “sufficiently improper as to raise a credible risk of affecting
    the outcome of the case,” or of “influencing the verdict.”
    
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    , 970. Our standard thus falls
    between requiring more than a theoretical possibility of
    prejudice and less than actual prejudice.
    The burden under Meyer is not contrary to
    Mattox/Remmer. Indeed, it is nearly identical to our
    formulation of Mattox/Remmer. Both tests look at the effect
    of the contact on the verdict or outcome. Compare 
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    (whether the contact “affected the verdict”);
    and 
    Lobato, 96 P.3d at 772
    (whether the contact
    “undermine[d] confidence in the outcome”); with 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    (whether the contact has a risk of
    “influencing the verdict” or “affecting the outcome of the
    case” (quoting 
    Tarango, 837 F.3d at 947
    )). And both tests
    require a similar level of certainty that there was prejudice.
    Compare 
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    (“reasonable probability or
    likelihood”) and 
    Lobato, 96 P.3d at 772
    (“a probability
    sufficient to”); with 
    Godoy, 861 F.3d at 967
    (“sufficiently
    improper as to raise a credible risk”).
    16               VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    2.
    Von Tobel’s reliance on the relationship between the
    defendant’s burden under Meyer and the test from Strickland
    is misplaced. Meyer requires a defendant to show “a
    reasonable probability or likelihood that the juror
    misconduct affected the verdict,” 
    Meyer, 80 P.3d at 455
    , and
    the Nevada Supreme Court’s definition of a “reasonable
    probability” comes from Strickland. Because the Supreme
    Court has said that “[s]urmounting Strickland ’s high bar is
    never an easy task,” 
    Padilla, 559 U.S. at 371
    , Von Tobel
    argues that his burden under Meyer must also be a “high
    bar,” and thus is contrary to the “low threshold” under
    Mattox/Remmer. To begin with, although we have said that
    the defendant’s burden under Mattox/Remmer is a “low
    threshold,” that description is our own and not attributable
    to the Supreme Court. 
    Caliendo, 365 F.3d at 697
    (stating
    that “the Mattox rule applies when an unauthorized
    communication with a juror crosses a low threshold to create
    the potential for prejudice” without citing to any Supreme
    Court precedent for that description). But even if it were, we
    cannot say that the burden under Meyer is inconsistent with
    this pronouncement.
    The principal problem with Von Tobel’s Strickland
    argument is that he conflates the Strickland test as a whole
    with a part of it. To establish ineffective assistance of
    counsel under Strickland, “a defendant must show both
    deficient performance by counsel and prejudice.” Knowles
    v. Mirzayance, 
    556 U.S. 111
    , 122 (2009). On the deficient
    performance prong, a defendant must show that his or her
    “counsel’s representation fell below an objective standard of
    reasonableness.” 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 688
    . On the
    prejudice prong, a defendant must show “a reasonable
    probability that, but for counsel’s unprofessional errors, the
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                     17
    result of the proceeding would have been different.”
    Id. at 694.
    “A reasonable probability is a probability sufficient to
    undermine confidence in the outcome.”
    Id. The Nevada Supreme
    Court’s definition of “reasonable probability” is
    the same and that definition comes from Strickland. See
    
    Lobato, 96 P.3d at 772
    . But it is not the “reasonable
    probability” standard in the prejudice prong that makes
    “[s]urmounting Strickland’s high bar [] never an easy task.”
    
    Padilla, 559 U.S. at 371
    . Rather, the highly deferential
    review courts are to give counsel’s performance and the
    likelihood that attorney error would be harmless in a
    particular case make it difficult to surmount. See
    id. at 371– 72
    (citing these parts of the Strickland test as support for the
    statement that Strickland is a high bar). Thus, on the
    prejudice prong, it is not the requirement that the defendant
    show a “reasonable probability” that makes it hard to meet;
    instead, it is what the defendant must show a “reasonable
    probability” of—“that, but for counsel’s unprofessional
    errors, the result of the proceeding would have been
    different,” 
    Strickland, 466 U.S. at 694
    . Thus, it is the other
    parts of the test and the test as a whole, not the reasonable
    probability standard, which makes Strickland such a high
    standard. As a result, that the definition of reasonable
    probability originates from Strickland does not lead to the
    conclusion that the defendant’s burden is not a low threshold
    or that the defendant’s burden must be contrary to
    Mattox/Remmer.
    Therefore, under AEDPA’s “highly deferential
    standard,” Woodford v. Visciotti, 
    537 U.S. 19
    , 24 (2002) (per
    curiam) (quoting Lindh v. Murphy, 
    521 U.S. 320
    , 333 n.7
    (1997)), we cannot say that requiring the petitioner to show
    “a reasonable probability or likelihood that [the contact]
    affected the verdict” is contrary to, or involves an
    18               VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI
    unreasonable application of, Supreme Court precedent, Van
    
    Patten, 442 U.S. at 126
    .
    B.
    Even considering Von Tobel’s argument without his
    having conflated the two presumptions of prejudice—that
    the Nevada Supreme Court unreasonably applied
    Mattox/Remmer in his case because it did not find that he
    had met his step one burden to show possible prejudice—he
    cannot meet his burden under AEDPA to show that
    Mattox/Remmer were unreasonably applied. See 
    Rowland, 876 F.3d at 1181
    (requiring a state court prisoner to show
    that “the state court’s ruling on the claim being presented in
    federal court was so lacking in justification that there was an
    error well understood and comprehended in existing law
    beyond any possibility for fairminded disagreement”
    (quoting 
    Woodall, 572 U.S. at 419
    –20)). We have provided
    that, to determine whether the defendant has met his or her
    burden to show possible prejudice, courts can consider a
    variety of factors, including: (1) whether the communication
    concerned the case; (2) the length and nature of the contact;
    (3) the identity and role at trial of the parties involved;
    (4) evidence of the actual impact on the juror; and (5) the
    possibility of eliminating prejudice through limiting
    instructions. Caliendo, 
    365 F.3d 697
    –98; see also United
    States v. Angulo, 
    4 F.3d 843
    , 847 (9th Cir. 1993) (stating that
    a court can consider “the content of the allegations, the
    seriousness of the alleged misconduct or bias, and the
    credibility of the source” in determining if the defendant has
    met his or her burden).
    C.
    Von Tobel requests that we expand the certificate of
    appealability to include his claims of actual innocence and
    VON TOBEL V. BENEDETTI                    19
    ineffective assistance of counsel.         See 28 U.S.C.
    § 2253(c)(1); 9th Cir. R. 22-1(e). We decline to do so
    because he has not made a “substantial showing of the denial
    of a constitutional right.” 28 U.S.C. § 2253(c)(2).
    III.
    For these reasons, the district court correctly denied Von
    Tobel’s petition for a writ of habeas corpus under 28 U.S.C.
    § 2254.
    AFFIRMED.