United States v. Ryan Michell ( 2023 )


Menu:
  •                      FOR PUBLICATION
    UNITED STATES COURT OF APPEALS
    FOR THE NINTH CIRCUIT
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,                       No. 19-10059
    Plaintiff-Appellee,
    D.C. No. 2:17-cr-
    v.                                         01690-GMS-1
    RYAN PATRICK MICHELL,                           ORDER AND
    Defendant-Appellant.                   AMENDED
    OPINION
    Appeal from the United States District Court
    for the District of Arizona
    G. Murray Snow, Chief District Judge, Presiding
    Argued and Submitted July 25, 2022
    San Francisco, California
    Filed February 15, 2023
    Amended April 14, 2023
    Before: Susan P. Graber and Kim McLane Wardlaw,
    Circuit Judges, and M. Miller Baker, * International Trade
    Judge.
    Opinion by Judge Wardlaw;
    Partial Concurrence and Partial Dissent by Judge Baker
    *
    The Honorable M. Miller Baker, International Trade Judge for the
    United States Court of International Trade, sitting by designation.
    2                    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    SUMMARY **
    Criminal Law
    The panel amended a February 15, 2023, opinion
    affirming the defendant’s 2018 convictions for unlawful
    possession of a firearm under 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and
    924(a)(2); denied a petition for panel rehearing; and denied
    on behalf of the court a petition for rehearing en banc.
    The defendant was convicted in 1997 of felony assault
    with a deadly weapon committed while he was a juvenile. In
    2016 and 2017, he pleaded guilty to two aggravated DUIs,
    which were felonies committed in 2003 while he was an
    adult. Relying on the Supreme Court's post-conviction
    decision in Rehaif v. United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191 (2019)
    ,
    the defendant argued on appeal that his 2018 convictions
    should be overturned due to the district court's failure to
    instruct the jury that the government must prove that he
    belonged to the relevant category of persons barred from
    possessing a firearm.
    It was undisputed that the district court’s failure to
    instruct on the Rehaif knowledge element was error and that
    the error was plain. The panel held, however, that the
    defendant cannot show that this error affected his substantial
    rights. In so holding, the panel did not need to reach whether
    being convicted as a juvenile or having been incarcerated for
    more than a year as a result of a juvenile conviction satisfies
    the Rehaif mens rea requirement. The panel held that the
    defendant’s two DUI convictions unambiguously
    **
    This summary constitutes no part of the opinion of the court. It has
    been prepared by court staff for the convenience of the reader.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                  3
    demonstrate that there is no reasonable probability that a jury
    would find that the defendant did not know he had been
    convicted of a crime punishable by a year or more in prison
    at the time he possessed the firearm. The panel explained
    that the defendant’s 2016 plea agreement and conviction
    documents for one of the DUIs prove beyond a reasonable
    doubt that he knew in 2017 that he had been convicted of a
    crime punishable by more than one year. The defendant
    contended that because the plea agreements were not
    presented to the jury at trial, this court cannot take judicial
    notice of judicial records reflecting the defendant’s plea
    agreement in the 2016 felony case. The panel explained that
    this contention contravenes the Supreme Court’s decision in
    Greer v. United States, 
    141 S. Ct. 2090 (2021)
     (holding that
    appellate panels reviewing Rehaif instructional errors may
    consider information about a defendant’s prior convictions
    in a pre-sentence report), and Ninth Circuit
    authority. Distinguishing United States v. Dior, 
    671 F.2d 351
     (9th Cir. 1982), the panel wrote that this court’s
    precedent is clear that it can and should take judicial notice
    of facts outside the record on plain-error review to answer
    the question whether there is a reasonable probability that,
    in a new trial, a jury would acquit a defendant. The panel
    wrote that additional record evidence—including the
    defendant’s repeated statements that he knew his DUI
    convictions made him a “prohibited possessor” of firearms
    under federal law—further demonstrates that the defendant
    clearly understood that he belonged to the category of
    persons barred from possessing a firearm.
    The panel amended the opinion to add a footnote
    concerning Michell’s contention that the indictment was
    fatally deficient since it failed to plead the Rehaif mens rea
    requirement. As the same plain error review standard
    4                 UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    applies to indictments as jury instructions under Rehaif, the
    panel held that the error did not affect Michell’s substantial
    rights and does not warrant the reversal of his conviction.
    Court of International Trade Judge Baker concurred in
    part and dissented in part. He agreed with the majority that
    this court should grant the government's motion to take
    judicial notice of evidence outside the record. But in his
    view—even after taking that additional evidence into
    account—it’s a coinflip as to whether a properly instructed
    jury would convict the defendant in a new trial. Because
    Judge Baker thinks the defendant has easily carried his
    burden of showing a reasonable probability of acquittal in
    such a trial, he dissented from the majority's affirmance of
    the conviction.
    COUNSEL
    Michele R. Moretti (argued), Law Office of Michele R.
    Moretti, Lake Butler, Florida, for Defendant-Appellant.
    Peter S. Kozinets (argued), Assistant United States Attorney;
    Rachel C. Hernandez; Kristen Jennifer Brook; Krissa M.
    Lanham, Appellate Division Chief; Gary M. Restaino,
    United States Attorney; Office of the United States Attorney,
    Phoenix, Arizona; for Plaintiff-Appellee.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                  5
    ORDER
    The opinion filed February 15, 2023 and appearing at 
    60 F.4th 518
    , is amended by the amended Opinion filed
    concurrently with this order.
    With this amendment, the panel unanimously votes to
    deny the petition for rehearing en banc, and a majority of the
    panel votes to deny the petition for panel rehearing. Judge
    Wardlaw votes to deny the petition for panel rehearing and
    rehearing en banc, and Judge Graber votes to deny the
    petition for panel rehearing and recommends denying the
    petition for rehearing en banc. Judge Baker recommends
    that the panel deny the petition for rehearing en banc but
    votes to grant the petition for panel rehearing.
    The full court has been advised of the petition for
    rehearing en banc, and no judge requested a vote on whether
    to rehear the matter en banc. Fed. R. App. P. 35. The
    petition for panel rehearing and rehearing en banc, filed
    March 17, 2023, is DENIED. No further petitions for panel
    rehearing or rehearing en banc will be entertained.
    IT IS SO ORDERED.
    6                  UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    OPINION
    WARDLAW, Circuit Judge:
    Ryan Michell appeals his 2018 convictions for unlawful
    possession of a firearm under 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and
    924(a)(2). Relying on the Supreme Court’s subsequent
    decision in Rehaif v. United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191 (2019)
    ,
    Michell argues that his convictions should be overturned due
    to the district court’s failure to instruct the jury that the
    government “must prove both that the defendant knew he
    possessed a firearm and that he knew he belonged to the
    relevant category of persons barred from possessing a
    firearm,” which he argues was plain error. 
    Id. at 2200
    (emphasis added). We have jurisdiction under 
    28 U.S.C. § 1291
    , and we affirm the convictions.
    I.
    In 2017, FBI agents began investigating Michell’s
    possible involvement in manufacturing a chemical weapon.
    During that investigation, the agents discovered that Michell
    had been convicted of several felonies—assault with a
    deadly weapon in 1997 and two aggravated DUIs in 2017—
    and found photographs on his Facebook profile showing him
    firing various firearms. On December 1, 2017, the agents
    executed a search warrant at Michell’s home and seized four
    live rounds of Lapua .338 ammunition, 50-60 spent cartridge
    cases of various calibers, and a used shooting-practice target.
    A search of Michell’s phone uncovered postings that he
    had made on Backpage.com listing firearms for sale, as well
    as text messages between Michell and a potential buyer,
    Nicholas Riddle. In the messages, Riddle expressed interest
    in purchasing one of Michell’s rifles. Michell, in turn,
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                  7
    provided more background about the weapon, including that
    he had purchased it “used years ago,” that he had taken it out
    only “a few times, maybe 100 rounds” because he preferred
    to use his “other toys,” so this one was “gathering dust in
    [his] gun safe.” Michell also stated that he had a number of
    other firearms for sale. Riddle agreed to purchase a rifle,
    two high-capacity 30-round magazines, and 100 rounds of
    ammunition for $400, and Michell sent him the address
    where they could meet for the sale. Riddle later identified
    the man who met him at that address as Michell.
    Shortly thereafter, agents arrested Michell, who agreed
    to submit to a video-recorded interview. During the
    interview, Michell stated that he did not have guns because
    of his felony status:
    Michell: I gave [my ex-fiancée] money . . . to
    buy guns . . . but she’s legal to have them . . .
    Agent: But you don’t have guns because of –
    Michell: I don’t have guns. I’m a felon. I
    mean, I’d love to eventually expunge my – I
    mean, I – I love – I love to shoot and pick up
    another hobby like that, but I don’t have any
    guns, no, sir.
    On February 27, 2018, a grand jury returned an
    indictment charging Michell with two counts of violating 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and 924(a)(2), possession of a weapon
    and ammunition by a prohibited person. The jury found
    Michell guilty on both counts, and the court sentenced him
    to 30 months in prison and three years of supervised release.
    A few months after Michell was sentenced, the Supreme
    Court clarified the mens rea requirement for felon-in-
    8                  UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    possession offenses in Rehaif. The Court held that, to obtain
    a conviction, the government must prove not only that the
    defendant knew that he possessed a firearm, but also that he
    knew that “he belonged to the relevant category of persons
    barred from possessing a firearm.” 139 S. Ct. at 2200.
    Because Michell’s trial occurred before Rehaif issued,
    Michell did not request, and the district court did not give, a
    jury instruction requiring the jury to find that Michell knew
    he belonged to a “relevant category,” that is, that he knew he
    had been convicted of a crime punishable by more than a
    year in prison when he possessed the firearm. See United
    States v. Singh, 
    979 F.3d 697
    , 727 (9th Cir. 2020). After
    Rehaif issued, Michell timely appealed and argued that the
    failure to instruct the jury on the second knowledge element
    was plain error, requiring the reversal of his convictions.
    II.
    We review the failure to give a Rehaif instruction under
    these circumstances for plain error. Greer v. United States,
    
    141 S. Ct. 2090
    , 2096–97 (2021). “To establish eligibility
    for plain-error relief, a defendant must satisfy three threshold
    requirements.” 
    Id. at 2096
    . There must be a (1) “error” (2)
    that was “plain” and (3) that “affect[s] ‘substantial rights,’
    which generally means that there must be ‘a reasonable
    probability that, but for the error, the outcome of the
    proceeding would have been different.’” 
    Id.
     (citation
    omitted).
    It is undisputed that Michell has satisfied the first two
    prongs of the plain error standard: there was an error and it
    was plain. See United States v. Benamor, 
    937 F.3d 1182
    ,
    1188 (9th Cir. 2019) (holding that the failure to instruct that
    the jury must find the defendant knew he was a felon when
    he possessed the firearm in a § 922(g) prosecution is plain
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                    9
    error). However, Michell cannot show that this error
    affected his substantial rights. Due to at least two of his prior
    convictions, all punishable by more than one year in prison,
    there is no “reasonable probability” that a jury would find
    that Michell did not know he had been convicted of a crime
    punishable by a year or more in prison at the time he
    possessed the firearm. Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2096–97.
    A.
    Section 922(g)(1) renders a prohibited possessor any
    person who has been convicted of a crime “punishable by
    imprisonment for a term exceeding one year.” Michell
    served two years in prison for his first conviction, an
    aggravated assault in 1997, which was committed when he
    was a juvenile.
    Michell contends that, because Michell’s 1997
    conviction was for an offense committed while he was a
    juvenile, reasonable doubt exists regarding whether Michell
    understood his aggravated assault conviction classified him
    as a felon. As Justice Sotomayor stated in Greer, “a
    defendant may not understand that a conviction in juvenile
    court . . . can be a felony for purposes of federal law.” 141
    S. Ct. at 2103 (Sotomayor, J., concurring). However, while
    it is possible that Michell did not understand that his juvenile
    conviction was a felony, we need not and do not reach the
    question of whether being convicted as a juvenile or having
    been incarcerated for more than a year as a result of a
    juvenile conviction satisfies the Rehaif mens rea requirement
    here. Michell’s two DUI convictions, which occurred when
    he was an adult, unambiguously demonstrate that there is no
    “reasonable probability” that a jury would find that Michell
    did not know he had been convicted of a crime punishable
    10                   UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    by a year or more in prison at the time he possessed the
    firearm. Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2096–97.
    B.
    In 2016 and 2017, Michell pleaded guilty to two DUIs,
    committed in 2003, that occurred in Maricopa County and
    Pinal County (each punishable by up to three years and nine
    months in prison). Michell’s 2016 plea agreement and
    conviction documents for the aggravated DUI in Maricopa
    County prove beyond a reasonable doubt that he knew in
    2017 that he had been convicted of a crime punishable by
    more than a year in prison. Specifically, on the first page of
    the plea agreement, the first term initialed by Michell
    indicates he understood that:
    The crime carries a presumptive sentence of
    2.5 years; a minimum sentence of 1.5 years;
    a mitigated sentence of 1 year; a maximum
    sentence of 3 years; and an aggravated
    sentence of 3.75 years.
    Because the plea agreements were not presented to the
    jury at trial, Michell argues that we cannot take judicial
    notice of judicial records reflecting Michell’s plea
    agreement in the 2016 Maricopa County felony case, State
    of Arizona v. Michell, CR2004-038904 (Dkt. 95), under Fed.
    R. Evid. 201(d). However, this contention contravenes
    clearly established Supreme Court and Ninth Circuit
    authority. 1 When an appellate court conducts plain-error
    review of a Rehaif error, any “argument that plain-error
    1
    Michell does not challenge the authenticity of the documents. We
    therefore grant the government’s motion to take judicial notice of the
    records of conviction for the two Arizona DUI offenses (Dkt. 95).
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                          11
    review must focus exclusively on the trial record
    contravenes both logic and precedent.” Greer, 141 S. Ct at
    2098 (holding that appellate panels reviewing Rehaif
    instructional errors may consider information about a
    defendant’s prior convictions in a pre-sentence report).
    Following the Supreme Court’s lead, the Ninth Circuit has
    frequently looked outside the trial record when deciding
    Rehaif claims. See Benamor, 937 F.3d at 1189 (looking to
    non-jury evidence of prior convictions in considering a
    Rehaif claim of error); United States v. Hearns, 836 Fed.
    App’x 520, 522 (9th Cir. 2020) (unpublished) (“Because the
    records are the proper subject of judicial notice and declining
    to take judicial notice would ‘merely be delaying the
    inevitable,’ the Court grants the Government’s uncontested
    motion.” (citation omitted)); United States v. Valencia-
    Barragan, 819 Fed. App’x 508, 511 n.3 (2020)
    (unpublished) (“We grant the Government’s motion to take
    judicial notice of certain conviction-related documents for
    purposes of Valencia’s Rehaif-based claim.”). 2
    2
    Indeed, most circuits have held that it is permissible to take judicial
    notice of facts outside the record for Rehaif claims on plain error review.
    See United States v. Ward, 
    957 F.3d 691
    , 695 & n.1 (6th Cir. 2020)
    (holding that appellate courts have authority to consult non-jury evidence
    on plain error review, including plea agreements); United States v. Reed,
    
    941 F.3d 1018
    , 1021 (11th Cir. 2019) (considering facts not presented at
    trial, including admissions that occurred at sentencing); United States v.
    Huntsberry, 
    956 F.3d 270
    , 284–86 (5th Cir. 2020) (taking judicial notice
    of conviction records to reject Rehaif claims); United States v. Payne,
    
    964 F.3d 652
    , 656 (7th Cir. 2020) (taking judicial notice of state court
    conviction documents in Rehaif appeal); United States v. Miller, 
    954 F.3d 551
    , 559–560 (2d Cir. 2020) (holding that appellate panels could
    consider information from a pre-sentence investigation report in
    evaluating a Rehaif claim).
    12                 UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    Despite this controlling precedent, Michell chooses to
    rely upon dicta in a footnote in our 1982 decision in United
    States v. Dior, 
    671 F.2d 351
     (9th Cir. 1982), upholding a
    judgment of acquittal because the government failed to
    prove an essential element of the crime. Rejecting the
    dissent’s suggestion that the majority simply could have
    taken judicial notice of that element, we said for a court to
    “take judicial notice of an adjudicative fact after a jury’s
    discharge in a criminal case would cast the court in the role
    of a fact-finder and violate defendant’s Sixth Amendment
    right to trial by jury.” 
    Id.
     at 358 n.11. Michell contends that
    his 2016 plea agreement constitutes an “adjudicative fact,”
    sweepingly defined as any fact “concerning the immediate
    parties.” Banks v. Schweiker, 
    654 F.2d 637
    , 640 n.3 (9th Cir.
    1981) (citation omitted). But we do not review de novo here,
    and Dior did not address at all the standards for plain-error
    review. In Dior, we held that—on mandamus review of a
    judgment of acquittal following a criminal conviction—we
    may not take judicial notice of facts to close evidentiary gaps
    in the government’s case-in-chief, where the government
    failed to introduce the evidence before the jury was
    discharged. Dior, 
    671 F.2d at
    357–58. The procedural
    posture of this case is wholly distinct: Under plain-error
    review of an instructional error, we ask simply whether there
    is a reasonable probability that, in a new trial, a jury would
    acquit a defendant. Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2097. And our
    precedent is clear that we can and should take judicial notice
    of facts outside the record on plain-error review to answer
    that question, which is not tantamount to filling gaps in the
    government’s case in an earlier trial. To do otherwise would
    burden courts with the expense and waste of judicial
    resources on retrial, even though the outcome is inevitable.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                13
    The dissent contends that we should not rely on the plea
    agreement because it is “hardly establish[ed] that [Michell]
    read the document at the time.” Dissent at 25. However, the
    portion of the guilty plea that establishes that Michell’s
    offense “carried a presumptive sentence of 2.5 years” is the
    first initialed paragraph of the plea agreement Michell
    signed just one year before law enforcement officers found
    firearms in Michell’s house. The number of years of
    presumptive incarceration are in bold and stand out starkly
    in the plea agreement. Though Michell actually served less
    than a year in prison for each of the DUI offenses, this case
    is hardly analogous to United States v. Werle, 
    335 F.4th 1195
    (9th Cir. 2022), which addressed whether a district court
    erred in summarily denying Werle’s motion to vacate his
    guilty plea for firearm possession offenses without an
    evidentiary hearing in light of Rehaif. There, Werle had a
    prior conviction for which he served a sentence of a year and
    a day. He argued that he had extensive brain damage that
    affected his memory as to the length of his incarceration and
    his understanding that he was a felon. 
    Id. at 1203
    . In that
    case, the operative question was whether the district court
    should have held an evidentiary hearing to allow Werle to
    introduce evidence that there existed a “reasonable
    probability that he would have proceeded to trial had he been
    properly informed of the elements of the offense.” 
    Id. at 1202
    . Here, on plain error review, we have the benefit of
    evaluating the full evidentiary record—including the trial
    record, Michell’s presentencing report, and Michell’s prior
    guilty pleas—to determine whether there is any reasonable
    probability that a jury would not find that Michell
    understood his conviction was punishable by more than a
    year in prison.
    14                UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    Moreover, additional record evidence demonstrates that
    Michell clearly understood, even before trial, that “he
    belonged to the relevant category of persons barred from
    possessing a firearm.” Rehaif, 139 S. Ct. at 2200. In
    addition to signing a plea agreement that acknowledged his
    2016 conviction was punishable by over a year in prison,
    during the course of the investigation and trial in this case,
    Michell repeatedly stated that he knew his DUI convictions
    made him a “prohibited possessor” of firearms under federal
    law. For example, during a post-arrest interview, Michell
    stated that, although he had given his ex-fiancée money to
    buy guns because it was “legal” for her to have them, he did
    not have guns himself because he was a “felon.” And at trial,
    he testified that he knew that both DUI convictions were
    felonies and that he was thus a prohibited possessor under
    § 922(g), stating in relevant part:
    Defense Counsel: So you know that there
    were aggravated DUI charges, you know to
    be a felony?
    Michell: Yes, sir.
    Defense Counsel: Are you a prohibited
    possessor?
    Michell: Yes, sir. After my DUI matter,
    that’s why there was no guns, no – I mean,
    I’m not going to lose my opportunity to be…
    with my daughters.
    In December 2017, when agents executed a search
    warrant at his home and found evidence of gun possession,
    Michell therefore fully understood that his DUI convictions
    were punishable by more than a year of incarceration. There
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                         15
    is no reasonable probability that a jury would find
    otherwise. 3 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1).
    III.
    For all the reasons stated above we AFFIRM the district
    court.
    BAKER, Judge, concurring in part and dissenting in part:
    The federal government prosecuted Ryan Patrick
    Michell—then a 38-year-old man with a minimal criminal
    record stemming from offenses at age 17 and in his early
    20s—for having four bullets in his garage and for his
    involvement in the private sale of a rifle. Under Rehaif v.
    United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191 (2019)
    , the grand jury did not
    properly indict Michell for this alleged violation of the felon-
    in-possession statute. Nor did the district court permit
    Michell to fully defend himself at trial, where the
    government failed to prove its case and where the court
    incorrectly instructed the jury on the elements of the charged
    offense.
    Having served a 30-month federal prison sentence
    following his conviction, Michell pursues this appeal
    seeking only an opportunity for a new trial to clear his name.
    Although I agree with the majority that we should grant the
    3
    Michell additionally contends that the indictment was facially deficient
    since it failed to plead the Rehaif mens rea requirement. As the same
    plain error review standard applies to indictments as jury instructions
    under Rehaif, see Singh, 979 F.3d at 370, we also hold that the error in
    the indictment did not affect Michell’s substantial rights and does not
    warrant the reversal of his conviction.
    16                 UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    government’s motion to take judicial notice of evidence
    outside the record, in my view—even after taking that
    additional evidence into account—it’s a coinflip as to
    whether a properly instructed jury would convict Michell in
    a new trial. Because I think he has easily carried his burden
    of showing a “reasonable probability” of acquittal in such a
    trial, I respectfully dissent from the majority’s affirmance of
    his conviction.
    I
    In 1997, Michell—then 17—was convicted in Arizona
    of aggravated assault. He was imprisoned for 20 months,
    first in a juvenile detention center and then in an adult section
    after he turned 18.
    In 2003, when he was 23–24, Michell was charged in
    Arizona with two separate DUIs. For reasons that are
    unclear, Arizona authorities waited 13 years to prosecute
    these charges, to which Michell agreed to plead guilty in
    October 2016. In early 2017 he was sentenced—as a first-
    time offender—to concurrent four-month prison sentences
    with three years’ probation.
    In late 2017, in response to information that Michell
    might be involved in creating a chemical weapon and after
    obtaining a warrant, federal agents raided his home.
    Although the search for nefarious activities related to a
    purported chemical weapon turned up empty, investigators
    found the four bullets and evidence of his involvement in the
    private sale of a $450 rifle at his brother’s home. Michell
    waived the right to an attorney and fully cooperated with the
    investigation.
    The United States Attorney for Arizona then asked a
    grand jury to return a superseding indictment charging
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                            17
    Michell with two counts of violating 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1)
    and 924(a)(2). The former makes it “unlawful for any person
    . . . who has been convicted in any court of[] a crime
    punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year
    . . . to . . . possess . . . any firearm or ammunition . . . .” 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1). The latter then specified that “[w]hoever
    knowingly violates . . . subsection (g) . . . of section 922 shall
    be fined . . . , imprisoned not more than 10 years, or both.”
    
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (a)(2). 1
    The grand jury obliged. Its indictment simply charged
    Michell with possession of the guns and ammunition while
    “having been previously convicted of a crime punishable by
    a term of imprisonment exceeding one year.”
    Before trial, the government successfully moved in
    limine for an order barring Michell from presenting any
    argument and evidence that might suggest he did “not
    qualify as a prohibited felon for purposes of 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1) and § 924(a)(2) because either his convictions
    did not render him a prohibited person or because he did not
    know he was prohibited.” The parties also stipulated that
    Michell was convicted in 1997 and 2017 of crimes
    “punishable by a term of imprisonment exceeding one
    year.” 2
    1
    While this appeal was pending, Congress moved the reference to
    § 922(g) from § 924(a)(2) to a new § 924(a)(8) and increased the
    potential penalty for § 922(g) violations to imprisonment “for not more
    than 15 years.” See 
    18 U.S.C. § 924
    (a)(8) (effective June 25, 2022); see
    also Pub. L. No. 117–159, § 12,004(c), 
    136 Stat. 1313
    , 1329 (June 25,
    2022).
    2
    This stipulation reflected the state of circuit law as it stood as that time,
    under which the government did not have the burden of proving any
    18                   UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    At trial, Michell testified he “didn’t perceive that the
    juvenile offense would follow me the rest of my life.” The
    government objected as to relevance, and the district court
    instructed Michell’s counsel to “move on.” A few moments
    later, when Michell’s counsel sought to examine him on his
    knowledge of his legal status, the government objected on
    relevance grounds, which the district court sustained. The
    district court then instructed the jury, in the middle of trial,
    that “what the defendant’s conclusions about the law were
    as it relates to his knowledge of being a prohibited possessor
    is not relevant.” At the close of trial, the district court
    instructed the jury that one of the elements of the charged
    offense was that “[a]t the time the defendant possessed the
    [ammunition and firearm], the defendant had been convicted
    of a crime punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding
    one year.”
    After more than three hours of deliberations, the jury
    returned a guilty verdict. Although the government sought a
    sentence of almost six years, the district court sentenced
    Michell to less than half that—30 months.
    The following year, the Supreme Court upended
    longstanding law in this area. It held that “in a prosecution
    under 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g) and § 924(a)(2), the Government
    must prove both that the defendant knew he possessed a
    firearm and that he knew he belonged to the relevant
    category of persons barred from possessing a firearm.”
    knowledge on the part of Michell. See United States v. Johnson, 
    459 F.3d 990
    , 998 (9th Cir. 2006) (characterizing various federal firearms laws,
    including § 922(g)(1), as “something approaching absolute liability”).
    The only defense available to Michell was whether in fact he possessed
    the rifle and ammunition.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                 19
    Rehaif v. United States, 
    139 S. Ct. 2191
    , 2200 (2019)
    (emphasis added).
    On appeal, Michell challenges both the indictment and
    the jury instruction’s failure to include the mens rea element
    required by Rehaif. Because he did not raise that issue at
    trial, he forfeited the claim of error under Federal Rule of
    Criminal Procedure 51(a). Greer v. United States, 
    141 S. Ct. 2090
    , 2096 (2021).
    Even so, we may consider “plain error that affects
    substantial rights.” Fed. R. Crim. P. 52(b). There are three
    threshold requirements for relief under such review: (1) an
    error must exist (2) that is clear or obvious and (3) that
    affects “substantial rights.” Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2096. This
    “generally means that there must be ‘a reasonable
    probability that, but for the error, the outcome of the
    proceeding would have been different.’ ” Id. (quoting
    Rosales-Mireles v. United States, 
    138 S. Ct. 1897
    , 1904–05
    (2018)). “If those three requirements are met, an appellate
    court may grant relief if it concludes that the error had a
    serious effect on ‘the fairness, integrity or public reputation
    of judicial proceedings.’ ” 
    Id.
     at 2096–97 (quoting Rosales-
    Mireles, 
    138 S. Ct. at 1905
    ).
    It is undisputed here that Michell satisfies the first two
    requirements of plain-error review. Under Rehaif, the grand
    jury’s indictment was defective, because it failed to allege
    that when Michell possessed the ammunition and rifle he
    knew that he had been “convicted in any court of[] a crime
    punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year.”
    
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1). Similarly, the district court failed to
    include that element of the charged offense in the jury
    instruction.
    20                  UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    As to the third requirement of plain-error review—
    whether there is a “reasonable probability” that a jury could
    find that Michell did not know at the time of the charged
    conduct that he had been “convicted . . . of[] a crime
    punishable by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year,”
    id.—that “standard is not the same as, and should not be
    confused with, a requirement that a defendant prove by a
    preponderance of the evidence that but for error things
    would have been different.” United States v. Irons, 
    31 F.4th 702
    , 714 (9th Cir. 2022) (quoting United States v.
    Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. 74
    , 83 n.9 (2004)) (emphasis
    in Irons); see also 
    id.
     (on plain-error review, a defendant
    “does not have to show that it is more likely than not that a
    [correctly-instructed] jury would have acquitted him”).
    Instead, “[a] probability is ‘reasonable’. . . if it is sufficient
    to undermine confidence in the outcome of the proceeding.”
    
    Id.
     at 713–14 (cleaned up) (citing Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at 83
    ).
    Finally, in this context of a § 922(g)(1) charge, we also
    ask whether “a defendant who is a felon [makes] an adequate
    showing on appeal that he [c]ould . . . present[] evidence in
    the district court that he did not” possess the necessary mens
    rea at the time of the charged conduct. Greer, 141 S. Ct. at
    2097.
    II
    Given the evident problems with relying on Michell’s
    juvenile conviction as a felon-in-possession predicate, see,
    e.g., United States v. Wilson, 
    853 F. App’x 297
    , 305–07
    (10th Cir.) (mem.), cert. denied, 
    142 S. Ct. 366 (2021)
     (court
    of appeals was “unable to conclude that the jury would have
    reached the same conclusion if properly instructed” under
    Rehaif when a § 922(g) defendant’s convictions were all
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                          21
    juvenile except for an adult conviction at age 18, for which
    he served four years in the youthful offender system rather
    than adult prison) (cleaned up), the majority rests its
    affirmance solely on Michell’s two DUI convictions in early
    2017—stemming from conduct more than 13 years earlier—
    for which he served only four months in prison.3 As to these
    convictions, Michell asserts that he did not know, at the time
    of the charged conduct in November/December 2017, that
    they were punishable by more than one year of
    imprisonment.
    My colleagues find no “reasonable probability” that a
    jury could find that Michell did not realize that his DUI
    convictions were so punishable. Majority at 9. They cite his
    2016 Maricopa County plea agreement, id. at 10, his
    statements to investigators, id. at 14, and his trial testimony,
    id. I address each of these in turn.
    A
    1
    On October 21, 2016, Michell signed an agreement to
    plead guilty in the Maricopa County Superior Court to
    driving under the influence in 2003. This agreement is not
    included in the record of any part of this case; the
    government proffers it on appeal through a motion
    requesting that we take judicial notice under Federal Rule of
    Evidence 201(d). Michell objects, arguing that on plain error
    review we are limited to the entire record, even if we are not
    limited to the trial record. See Irons, 31 F.4th at 714 (on
    plain-error review, “we ‘may consider the entire record—
    3
    Because the majority declines to consider whether Michell’s juvenile
    conviction qualifies as a felon-in-possession predicate, I likewise decline
    to do so.
    22                 UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    not just the record from the particular proceeding where the
    error occurred’ ”) (quoting Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2098)
    (emphasis in Greer).
    I agree with the majority that we are not so limited. The
    Court in Greer reasoned that on plain error review an
    appellate court can look beyond the trial record to “the entire
    record” because such review assumes a counterfactual
    scenario where the district court gave the proper mens rea
    instruction and the parties “introduce[d] additional
    evidence” relevant to that instruction. Greer, 141 S. Ct. at
    2098. The Court also suggested that the parties could seek to
    supplement the record on appeal with evidence bearing on
    the defendant’s state of mind. See id. at 2097 (citing Fed. R.
    App. P. 10(c)). It necessarily follows that we can consider
    additional “relevant and reliable” evidence from outside the
    entire record of the proceeding itself, at least to the extent
    such evidence could have been presented to the jury in the
    counterfactual hypothetical that plain error review envisions.
    Michell further argues that even if we are not otherwise
    restricted on plain error review to the entire record, our
    decision in United States v. Dior, 
    671 F.2d 351
     (9th Cir.
    1982), precludes us from taking judicial notice of his 2016
    Maricopa County plea agreement. In Dior, a case involving
    de novo review, we explained that for “an appellate court to
    take judicial notice of an adjudicative fact in a criminal case
    would frustrate the policies Congress sought to achieve in
    providing in F.R.Evid. 201([f]) that a jury is not required to
    accept as conclusive a judicially noticed fact.” 
    Id.
     at 358
    n.11.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                           23
    I agree with the majority that Dior and Rule 201(f) 4 do
    not bar us from taking judicial notice of an adjudicative fact
    such as Michell’s 2016 Maricopa County plea agreement. 5
    That rule’s purpose is to “preserve the jury’s traditional
    prerogative, in a criminal case, to ignore even
    uncontroverted facts in reaching a verdict and to prevent the
    trial court from violating the spirit of the Sixth Amendment
    right to counsel by directing a partial verdict as to facts.”
    Dior, 
    671 F.2d at
    358 n.11 (citing United States v. Jones, 
    580 F.2d 219
    , 223–24 (6th Cir. 1978); H.R. No. 93-650, 93d
    Cong., 1st Sess. 6–7, reprinted in 1974 U.S.C.C.A.N. 7051,
    7075, 7080).
    On plain error review, however, we ask whether the error
    affects “substantial rights,” Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2096, which
    requires “the showing of ‘a reasonable probability that, but
    for the error claimed, the result of the proceeding would have
    been different.” Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at
    81–82
    (cleaned up and quoting United States v. Bagley, 
    473 U.S. 667
    , 682 (1985) (opinion of Blackmun, J.)). This
    formulation reflects the standard adopted in Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984), where the Court
    explained that in determining “whether the specified errors
    resulted in the required prejudice,” 
    id. at 694
    ,
    4
    Federal Rule of Evidence 201(f) provides that “[i]n a criminal case, the
    court must instruct the jury that it may or may not accept the [judicially]
    noticed fact as conclusive.” Fed. R. Evid. 201(f) (emphasis added).
    5
    An “adjudicative fact . . . is a fact ‘concerning the immediate parties.’ ”
    Banks v. Schweiker, 
    654 F.2d 637
    , 640 n.3 (9th Cir. 1981) (quoting Fed.
    R. Evid. 201 advisory cmte. notes). Michell’s initials and signature on
    the 2016 Maricopa County plea agreement concern him and thus are
    adjudicative facts.
    24                UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    a court should presume, absent challenge to
    the judgment on grounds of evidentiary
    insufficiency, that the judge or jury acted
    according to law. An assessment of the
    likelihood of a result more favorable to the
    defendant must exclude the possibility of
    arbitrariness, whimsy, caprice, “nullification,”
    and the like. A defendant has no entitlement
    to the luck of a lawless decisionmaker, even
    if the lawless decision cannot be reviewed.
    
    Id.
     at 694–95.
    It follows from this reasoning that we must presume—
    because Michell does not challenge the evidentiary
    sufficiency of the decision below—that if the district court
    had taken judicial notice of his 2016 Maricopa County plea
    agreement and given a Rule 201(f) instruction, the jury
    would not have exercised its prerogative to simply ignore the
    existence of that agreement, whose authenticity is
    unchallenged. Rule 201(f) therefore is no impediment to our
    taking judicial notice of Michell’s plea agreement, and I
    concur in granting the government’s motion that we take
    such notice.
    2
    The majority holds that Michell’s 2016 Maricopa
    County plea agreement “prove[s] beyond a reasonable doubt
    that [Michell] knew in 2017 that he had been convicted of a
    crime punishable by more than a year in prison.” Majority at
    10. Although I acknowledge that a jury might reach that
    conclusion after a new trial, it’s by no means a foregone
    conclusion.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                      25
    In my view, Michell’s 2016 Maricopa County plea
    agreement is underwhelming evidence of his state of mind
    at the time of the charged conduct over a year later. 6 That
    Michell signed the document and initialed its 11 paragraphs
    of fine print hardly establishes that he read the document at
    the time.
    And even if we infer that Michell read the plea
    agreement, I don’t see how we can be certain that he
    understood it. As Michell argues in response to the
    government’s motion to take judicial notice, the plea
    agreement “raises more questions than it answers.” The
    passage cited by the majority provides:
    Count 1: The crime carries a presumptive
    sentence of 2.5 years; a minimum sentence of
    1.5 years; a mitigated sentence of 1 year; a
    maximum sentence of 3 years; and an
    aggravated sentence of 3.75 years. Probation
    IS available.
    On the face of the document, it’s not clear which of these
    sentence ranges Michell was eligible for. For all he knew as
    a layman, his maximum exposure was limited to “a mitigated
    sentence of one year,” which might not be a qualifying felon-
    in-possession predicate.
    Michell also points out the passage cited by the majority
    is neither boldfaced nor underscored in its entirety, in
    6
    Michell signed the Maricopa County plea agreement in October 2016.
    The superseding indictment charged Michell with possessing a rifle and
    ammunition in November/December 2017.
    26                 UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    contrast to the key provisions of the agreement outlining the
    actual terms affecting him, such as the provision stating that
    Defendant shall serve 4 months in the
    Arizona Department of Corrections then
    be placed on Supervised Probation.
    Defendant shall pay a fine of $750 plus an
    80% surcharge….Defendant’s driver’s
    license shall be revoked.
    (Boldface and underscoring in original.) If Michell read any
    part of the plea agreement, he was more likely to have read
    the boldfaced and underscored provisions outlining the
    bottom-line consequences for him.
    And even if Michell read and understood the contents of
    his 2016 Maricopa County plea agreement, it does not
    necessarily mean that he remembered the agreement’s
    sentencing range minutia at the time of his charged conduct.
    Cf. United States v. Werle, 
    35 F.4th 1195
    , 1205 (9th Cir.
    2022) (that “he knew of [the possible imprisonment term
    almost two] years earlier [at his sentencing hearing] does not
    necessarily mean that he remembered it at the time he
    possessed the firearm”). The only points of the agreement
    that he was certain to have remembered were the ones that
    directly affected him—his four-month sentence, his
    probation, his fine, and the loss of his driver’s license. Even
    then, over a year later he may not have remembered the
    amount of his fine, just as he may not have remembered his
    sentencing exposure range (unlike his fine, a fact of no
    significance to him).
    As Greer requires, see 141 S. Ct. at 2098, Michell points
    to evidence that he can present at a new trial to show that he
    did not realize at the time of the charged conduct that his
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                       27
    DUI convictions were punishable by imprisonment for more
    than one year. Most importantly, he points to his concurrent
    four-month prison sentences. “[I]n each of our published
    opinions denying relief for Rehaif errors we have cited the
    fact that a defendant actually served more than one year in
    prison as a reason for concluding that the defendant knew
    that he had been convicted of a crime punishable by more
    than one year in prison.” Werle, 35 F.4th at 1204–05
    (emphasis added). Drawing from that caselaw, we explained
    that “the length of time one serves in prison bears on whether
    one is likely to remember that one’s convictions were
    punishable by more than one year in prison.” Id. at 1205; see
    also Rehaif, 
    139 S. Ct. at 2198
     (suggesting that 
    18 U.S.C. §§ 922
    (g)(1) and 924(a)(2) do not apply to “a person who
    was convicted of a prior crime but sentenced only to
    probation, who does not know that the crime is ‘punishable
    by imprisonment for a term exceeding one year’ ”) (first
    emphasis added, second emphasis in original) (quoting 
    18 U.S.C. § 922
    (g)(1)).
    Not only does this case fit squarely under Werle, but it’s
    an even stronger case for a new trial. In Werle, the defendant
    was sentenced to one year and one day for each of his
    predicate convictions, 7 but he served less than a year on
    each. 35 F.4th at 1203. Even so, we found that he could make
    “a colorable argument at trial” that he did not know at the
    time of the charged conduct—less than two years after his
    7
    Aside from the two predicate convictions for his felon-in-possession
    charge, the defendant in Werle had been convicted of at least 18 other
    crimes. See 35 F.4th at 1203. In contrast, Michell had no prior
    convictions other than his juvenile conviction and his DUI convictions,
    all of which stemmed from offenses that antedated the charged conduct
    by more than a decade.
    28                    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    most recent sentencing hearing—that his conviction was
    punishable by more than a year in prison. Id. We did so even
    though he “was more likely to know that he had been
    convicted of a felony than another similarly situated
    defendant who was sentenced to less than one year in
    prison.” Id. at 1205 (emphasis added).
    Because Michell was only sentenced to and only served
    four months for his DUI convictions, he was less likely to
    know he had been convicted of a felon-in-possession
    predicate than the defendant in Werle. Even more than that
    defendant, Michell could make a “colorable argument” at
    trial that he did not know that his DUI convictions were
    punishable by more than a year’s imprisonment. We should
    follow Werle here and not treat Michell’s plea agreement as
    conclusive evidence of his state of mind over a year later as
    the majority does.
    B
    The majority also cites Michell’s statement, in his post-
    arrest interview with the FBI, that “he did not have guns
    himself because he was a ‘felon.’ ” Majority at 14.
    Respectfully, the critical question here is not whether
    Michell knew he was a “felon,” a vague term nowhere found
    in §§ 922(g)(1) and 924(a)(2). 8 The critical question is
    instead whether he knew, at the time of the charged conduct,
    8
    Michell correctly notes that as “a matter of convenience” courts often
    use “felon” to describe defendants who satisfy § 922(g)(1)’s lengthy
    definition, but that neither a defendant’s nor the courts’ use of that
    shorthand “adequately describe[s] the element that the Government[] has
    the burden of proving under § 922(g)(1)” under Rehaif. See also Werle,
    35 F.4th at 1205 (“Although a violation of § 924(a)(2) and § 922(g)(1)
    is colloquially referred to as being a ‘felon in possession of a firearm,’
    the word ‘felon’ does not appear in the relevant statutory provisions.”).
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                      29
    that his 2017 DUI convictions were punishable by
    imprisonment for more than one year. His statement to his
    FBI interrogators is at most probative of that question rather
    than conclusive. Cf. Werle, 35 F.4th at 1206 (“[A]
    defendant’s acknowledgement that he has been convicted of
    a felony,” while “undoubtedly probative evidence that a
    factfinder may consider in determining whether the
    defendant had the requisite mens rea[,] . . . standing alone is
    not necessarily conclusive . . . .”) (emphasis in original).
    Nor does Michell’s statement to investigators implying
    it wasn’t “legal” for him to have guns speak to whether he
    knew that his DUI convictions were punishable by more than
    one year of imprisonment. To begin with, the majority
    ignores that Michell acknowledged that the terms of his
    probation for his 2017 DUI convictions precluded his
    possession of firearms. His statement was not necessarily a
    reference to his status under federal law.
    But more importantly, the government need not prove
    that “the defendant knew his or her status prohibited firearm
    ownership or possession.” United States v. Singh, 
    979 F.3d 697
    , 727 (9th Cir. 2020). That necessarily cuts in both
    directions. If a defendant’s knowledge as to whether he
    could possess weapons is not relevant to his defense, then
    surely that same knowledge can’t be used to convict him, as
    we acknowledged in Werle. See 35 F.4th at 1202–03 (“That
    he knew . . . that he was not supposed to possess a firearm
    do[es] not suffice” for purposes of the government’s burden
    of proof.) (emphasis added). 9 The relevant inquiry here is
    9
    “There are many reasons one might be prohibited from possessing a
    firearm . . . . Thus, the fact that a defendant knows that he may not
    possess a firearm is not conclusive evidence that he knows that he has
    30                   UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    whether Michell “knew that the maximum potential sentence
    to which he was exposed for his [DUI convictions] exceeded
    one year.” Id. at 1203. That Michell understood he was a
    prohibited possessor does not matter.
    C
    Finally, the majority cites Michell’s trial testimony.
    Majority at 14. The first cited passage reads as follows:
    Defense Counsel: So you know that there
    were aggravated DUI charges, you know to
    be a felony?
    Michell: Yes, sir.
    (Emphasis added.)
    Once again, the majority strays off course. Of course
    Michell knew at the time of trial that his DUI convictions
    were “felonies” (whatever that means, see above note 8) for
    purposes of federal law. After all, that’s what the man was
    on trial for. But the relevant question is Michell’s state of
    mind “when he possessed the firearm,” Werle, 35 F.4th at
    1205 (emphasis added) (quoting Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2095).
    Because this question was asked and answered in the present
    tense, Michell’s response lacks probative value.
    The second passage cited by the majority reads as
    follows:
    Defense Counsel: Are you a prohibited
    possessor?
    been convicted of a crime punishable by more than one year in prison.”
    Id. at 1203 n.4.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                          31
    Michell: Yes, sir. After my DUI matter, that’s
    why there was no guns, no—I mean, I’m not
    going to lose my opportunity to be . . . with
    my daughters.
    (Emphasis added.)
    Unlike the colloquy discussed above, Michell’s answer
    speaks to his state of mind at the time of the charged conduct
    as well as at trial. But as explained above, it is of no moment
    if Michell knew at the time of the charged conduct “that he
    was not supposed to possess a firearm” for purposes of
    federal law, 10 because that “does not suffice” to establish the
    government’s Rehaif burden. Werle, 35 F.4th at 1202–03.
    “What matters is whether [he] knew that the maximum
    potential sentence to which he was exposed for his previous
    crimes exceeded one year.” Id.
    D
    As the majority points out, Michell must demonstrate
    that there exists “a reasonable probability that, but for the
    error, the outcome of the proceeding would have been
    different.” Majority at 8 (quoting Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2096).
    The Supreme Court has explained that “[a] ‘reasonable
    probability’ of a different result is . . . shown when the [error]
    ‘undermines confidence in the outcome of the trial.’ ” Kyles
    v. Whitley, 
    514 U.S. 419
    , 434 (1995) (quoting Bagley, 
    473 U.S. at 678
    ).
    10
    Even if it were relevant, the trial testimony cited by the majority does
    not necessarily establish that Michell knew at the time of the charged
    conduct that he was a prohibited possessor for purposes of federal law.
    As discussed above, Michell acknowledged at trial that the probation
    terms of his 2017 DUI convictions precluded his possession of firearms.
    32                    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    To undermine such confidence, we know that the
    defendant need not show that he “more likely than not”
    would “have received a different verdict” without the error.
    Id.; cf. Strickler v. Greene, 
    527 U.S. 263
    , 298 (1999) (Souter,
    J., concurring) (“[T]he continued use of the term
    ‘probability’ raises an unjustifiable risk of misleading courts
    into treating it as akin to the more demanding standard,
    ‘more likely than not.’ ”). 11 “Reasonable probability”
    therefore means some chance that is less than 51 percent at
    the high end of the range.
    On the other hand, we also know that plain error review
    should not be “too easy” for defendants. See Dominguez
    Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at 82
     (noting that the policy of Federal
    Rule of Criminal Procedure 52(b) is “to encourage timely
    objections and reduce wasteful reversals by demanding
    strenuous exertion to get [plain error] relief”). To that end,
    the Supreme Court’s cases teach that “reasonable
    probability” is more demanding for defendants than a mere
    “reasonable possibility.” See Greene, 
    527 U.S. at 291
    (explaining that a defendant must “establish a reasonable
    probability of a different result,” not just “a reasonable
    possibility”) (emphasis in original); see also United States v.
    Agurs, 
    427 U.S. 97
    , 109–10 (1976) (“[T]he mere possibility
    that an item of undisclosed information might have aided the
    defense, or might have affected the outcome of the trial, does
    not establish ‘materiality’ in the constitutional sense.”);
    Greene, 
    527 U.S. at 300
     (Souter, J., concurring) (explaining
    that “ ‘reasonable possibility’ . . . and ‘reasonable
    probability’ express distinct levels of confidence concerning
    11
    The reasonable probability test “is not a sufficiency of evidence test,”
    as “[t]he possibility of an acquittal on a criminal charge does not imply
    an insufficient evidentiary basis to convict.” Kyles, 
    514 U.S. at
    434–35.
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                         33
    the hypothetical effects of errors on decisionmakers’
    reasoning”). 12
    As the Supreme Court in another context has defined a
    “reasonable possibility” as meaning as low as a 10 percent
    chance, see INS v. Cardoza-Fonseca, 
    480 U.S. 421
    , 440
    (1987) (explaining that “a 10% chance of being . . .
    persecuted” is a “reasonable possibility” of such persecution
    occurring), a “reasonable probability” is something less than
    51 percent (“more likely than not”) but more than 10 percent
    (“reasonable possibility”). In view of Justice Souter’s
    suggestion that the difference between “reasonable
    probability” and “reasonable possibility” is “slight” and that
    the former is closer to the latter than it is to “more likely than
    not,” see Greene, 
    527 U.S. at 300
     (Souter, J., concurring),
    but also keeping in mind the Supreme Court’s admonition
    that plain error relief should not be “too easy,” Dominguez
    Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at 82
    , I think we can define “reasonable
    probability” as roughly a 25 percent likelihood. 13
    On this record, as augmented through judicial notice,
    there is modest evidence that Michell “knowingly” violated
    § 922(g)(1) as Rehaif requires: The government’s case rests
    12
    But see Irons, 31 F.4th at 713, 715 (using “reasonable possibility” as
    synonymous with “reasonable probability”).
    13
    I acknowledge that Justice Scalia condemned seeking to define
    “ineffable gradations of probability” other than “beyond a reasonable
    doubt” and “more likely than not” as “beyond the ability of the judicial
    mind (or any mind) to grasp, and thus harmful rather than helpful to the
    consistency and rationality of judicial decisionmaking.” Dominguez
    Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at
    86–87 (Scalia, J., concurring in the judgment). But
    unless and until the Supreme Court adopts the “more likely than not”
    standard advocated by Justice Scalia, see 
    id.,
     lower court judges on plain
    error review must grapple with divining the meaning of “reasonable
    probability.”
    34                UNITED STATES V. MICHELL
    on statements Michell made that do not speak directly to his
    state of mind at the time of the charged conduct and on an
    ambiguous sentencing-range provision that Michell had no
    reason to focus on—much less commit to memory—when
    he signed the 2016 Maricopa County plea agreement more
    than a year before his charged conduct. The weakness of the
    government’s case, when coupled with the evidence
    negating his mens rea that Michell says he will introduce in
    any new trial—specifically, that the Arizona courts
    adjudicating his DUI offenses sentenced him to only four
    months and that he only served the same—leads me to
    conclude that the likely outcome of any new trial is a
    coinflip. Michell therefore has more than carried his burden
    of demonstrating at least a 25 percent likelihood “that a
    properly instructed jury would have had a reasonable doubt”
    as to whether he knew at the time of the charged conduct that
    his DUI convictions exposed him to imprisonment for more
    than one year. Irons, 31 F.4th at 715. Because that likelihood
    is “sufficient to undermine confidence in the outcome” of the
    proceeding, id. at 714 (quoting Dominguez Benitez, 
    542 U.S. at 83
    ), in my judgment the district court’s Rehaif errors
    affected his substantial rights.
    III
    As Michell has satisfied his burden to show that plain
    error affected his substantial rights, in my view we should
    exercise our discretion to correct this error because it
    seriously affects “the fairness, integrity[, and] public
    reputation of judicial proceedings.” Greer, 141 S. Ct. at 2097
    (quoting Rosales-Mireles, 
    138 S. Ct. at 1905
    ). Michell “was
    deprived of his basic right to have the jury decide every
    element of the offense charged. The error also led him to
    forego possibly winning defenses and trial tactics. And the
    evidence that the jury would have convicted him anyway is
    UNITED STATES V. MICHELL                   35
    too thin for us to say that close is close enough.” United
    States v. Gear, 
    9 F.4th 1040
    , 1051 (9th Cir. 2021) (Bumatay,
    J., concurring in part and dissenting in part); see also Irons,
    31 F.4th at 715 (“Removing the key disputed issue at trial
    from the jury’s consideration certainly casts doubt on the
    fairness of the proceedings, even if Irons’ own counsel failed
    to catch the error.”). And because the government’s case
    against Michell on the element of his knowledge is marginal,
    reversal is no threat to “the integrity or fairness of the
    proceedings.” Irons, 35 F.4th at 715 (quoting United States
    v. Turchin, 
    21 F.4th 1192
    , 1203 (9th Cir. 2022)).
    *       *       *
    The constitutional right to a “public trial, by an impartial
    jury” on all elements of a charged offense is a lone citizen’s
    last line of defense against the vast power of the United
    States Government. U.S. Const. amend. VI; see also 3
    J. Story, Commentaries on the Constitution of the United
    States § 1774, at 653 (1833) (“[T]rial by jury” protects
    “against a spirit of oppression . . . on the part of rulers, . . .
    the prejudices of judges, who may partake of the wishes and
    opinions of the government, and . . . the passions of the
    multitude . . . .”). Because the evidence (even as augmented
    through judicial notice) against Michell is modest rather than
    overwhelming, I would send this case back for a new
    indictment and new trial. In such a trial, Michell could for
    the first time fully defend himself before a properly
    instructed jury. I respectfully dissent from the majority’s
    affirmance of his conviction.