Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Association v. EPA ( 2021 )


Menu:
  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued January 28, 2021              Decided August 27, 2021
    No. 15-1056
    HEARTH, PATIO & BARBECUE ASSOCIATION,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    AMERICAN LUNG ASSOCIATION, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    On Petition for Review of a Final Agency Action
    of the Environmental Protection Agency
    David Y. Chung argued the cause for petitioner. With him
    on the briefs was Amanda Shafer Berman. David E. Menotti
    entered an appearance.
    Simi Bhat, Senior Trial Attorney, U.S. Department of
    Justice, argued the cause for respondent. With her on the brief
    were Jonathan Brightbill, Principal Deputy Assistant Attorney
    General, Eric Grant, Deputy Assistant Attorney General, and
    Scott Jordan, Counsel, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
    Timothy D. Ballo was on the brief for intervenor American
    Lung Association, et al. in support of respondent.
    2
    Letitia James, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of New York, Barbara D. Underwood,
    Solicitor General, Anisha S. Dasgupta, Deputy Solicitor
    General, Philip J. Levitz, Assistant Solicitor General, Michael
    J. Myers, Senior Counsel, Nicholas C. Buttino, Assistant
    Attorney General, Clyde AEd@ Sniffen, Jr., Acting Attorney
    General, Office of the Attorney General for the State of Alaska,
    William Tong, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of Connecticut, Kwame Raoul, Attorney
    General, Office of the Attorney General for the State of Illinois,
    Brian E. Frosh, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney
    General for the State of Maryland, Keith Ellison, Attorney
    General, Office of the Attorney General for the State of
    Minnesota, Gurbir S. Grewal, Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of New Jersey, Ellen F.
    Rosenblum, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General
    for the State of Oregon, Peter F. Neronha, Attorney General,
    Office of the Attorney General for the State of Rhode Island,
    Thomas J. Donovan, Jr., Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of Vermont, Robert W.
    Ferguson, Attorney General, Office of the Attorney General
    for the State of Washington, and Jennifer A. Dold, General
    Counsel, were on the brief for amici curiae States of New York,
    et al. in support of respondent. Paul A. Garrahan, Attorney-
    in-Charge, Office of the Attorney General for the State of
    Oregon, Carol A. Iancu, Assistant Attorney General, Office of
    the Attorney General for the Commonwealth of Massachusetts,
    Scott N. Koschwitz, Assistant Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of Connecticut, Gregory S.
    Schultz, Special Assistant Attorney General, Office of the
    Attorney General for the State of Rhode Island, and Nicholas
    F. Persampieri and William H. Sorrell, Assistant Attorneys
    General, Office of the Attorney General for the State of
    Vermont, entered appearances.
    3
    Before: HENDERSON, PILLARD and WILKINS, Circuit
    Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge PILLARD.
    PILLARD, Circuit Judge: Petitioner Hearth, Patio &
    Barbecue Association (HPBA) challenges the portion of the
    Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) 2015 rule updating
    the standards under which EPA audits wood-burning heaters’
    compliance with emissions limits required by the Clean Air Act
    (the Act). See Standards of Performance for New Residential
    Wood Heaters, New Residential Hydronic Heaters and Forced-
    Air Furnaces, 
    80 Fed. Reg. 13,672
    , 13,708-09, 13,721 (Mar.
    16, 2015) (hereinafter 2015 Rule). Based on the danger wood
    smoke poses to human health, the Act requires EPA to regulate
    emissions from residential wood heaters. Such devices heat
    many American homes—hundreds of thousands in the amici
    states alone—and produce pollution across the country, which
    transcends geographic borders and exposes major portions of
    the population to grave health consequences.
    Unlike industrial and commercial facilities regulated by
    EPA under the Act, residential wood heaters are mass-
    produced consumer items typically purchased by individuals
    and installed and operated in private homes. To account for
    differences between residential and industrial or commercial-
    scale sources, and in recognition that residential wood heater
    manufacturers are often small businesses, EPA regulates those
    heaters through a certification program. Instead of requiring
    the testing of every heater, the program allows manufacturers
    to obtain certification to sell an entire model line based on
    satisfactory emissions testing of a single representative heater
    in the model line. As support for a certification application, the
    Agency accepts test results from private, EPA-approved
    laboratories that the manufacturers hire to test their heaters.
    4
    To guard against errors at the certification stage and assure
    continued compliance, the Agency may randomly select
    heaters from model lines certified under the program for audit
    testing by an EPA-approved laboratory at the manufacturer’s
    expense. All audit laboratories are required to use the same test
    method. Under its original rule, EPA called on the same
    laboratory that had done the certification testing to do any audit
    testing. See Standards of Performance for New Stationary
    Sources; New Residential Wood Heaters, 
    53 Fed. Reg. 5,860
    ,
    5,871, 5,878 (Feb. 26, 1988) (hereinafter 1988 Rule). In the
    first update to the rule in more than 25 years, the 2015 Rule
    authorizes audit testing by any accredited and EPA-approved
    laboratory.
    Petitioner HPBA asserts that the audit provision of the
    2015 Rule is invalid because, unlike the 1988 Rule, it
    authorizes testing at other labs and neither accounts specifically
    for interlaboratory variability in emissions testing nor
    adequately acknowledges and explains the change. The
    petition highlights that wood heaters’ emissions of particulate
    matter fluctuate, posing persistent regulatory challenges.
    HPBA and EPA agree that some variability in test results arises
    from natural variations inherent in wood that affect how it
    burns. And HPBA does not dispute the validity of the 2015
    Rule’s amended emissions limits for initial certification of
    wood-stove room heaters, 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.532
    , or central
    heaters, 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.5474
    —two subcategories of wood
    heaters regulated under the Act. It takes issue here only with
    the amended compliance auditing provisions for those heater
    categories. See 
    id.
     §§ 60.533(n), 60.5475(n).
    The challenge to the audit provision hinges on the
    assertion that the use of different labs raises a distinct problem:
    variable results of the same test on the same model heater,
    which HPBA asserts derive in significant part from running the
    5
    test at a different laboratory from the one used for initial
    certification. HPBA claims the 2015 Rule’s allowance for
    audit testing by any EPA-certified laboratory is arbitrary and
    capricious insofar as it does not provide more leeway
    specifically to account for interlaboratory test variability. In
    other words, HPBA argues that, when a laboratory other than
    the one that did the certification-stage test performs an audit,
    EPA must allow worse test results, and that it has failed to
    explain why it does not.
    There is little question that, if it were starting from a clean
    slate, EPA has provided substantial evidence and rational
    explanation that would suffice to sustain the audit provisions
    of the 2015 Rule. The crux of HPBA’s claim is what it treats
    as EPA’s promise in the original rule it promulgated in 1988 to
    continue “restricting where and how audit testing could occur,
    at least until EPA studied and better understood interlaboratory
    variability.” HPBA Br. 3. HPBA hangs more weight on two
    sentences in the preamble to the 1988 Rule than they can bear.
    And in fact, when EPA proposed the current Rule, it explained
    the evolution of its understanding of test variability. It
    described how, based on analyses of testing proficiency data
    and improved testing methods developed since 1988, concerns
    about interlaboratory audit testing as a distinct source of
    variability were shown to have been overstated. And it refined
    the audit procedures to address identified causes of variability.
    Because we conclude that EPA acknowledged and
    adequately explained the changes in the 2015 Rule, and
    substantial evidence in the record supports those changes, we
    deny the petition for review.
    6
    I. BACKGROUND
    A. EPA’s prior regulation of wood heaters
    Residential wood heaters are enclosed, wood-burning
    devices such as wood stoves. They are most often installed in
    homes for ambiance or to heat the space immediately
    surrounding the device. Such heaters emit many pollutants
    harmful to human health. EPA promulgated its first residential
    wood heater rule under Section 111(b) of the Clean Air Act in
    1988, see 1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,860, and first revisited
    the standards in the 2015 Rule at issue here, see 2015 Rule, 80
    Fed. Reg. at 13,672-73.
    “Congress enacted the Clean Air Act . . . ‘to protect and
    enhance the quality of the Nation’s air resources so as to
    promote the public health and welfare and the productive
    capacity of its population.’” Clean Wis. v. EPA, 
    964 F.3d 1145
    ,
    1153 (D.C. Cir. 2020) (per curiam) (citation omitted) (quoting
    Miss. Comm’n on Env’t Quality v. EPA, 
    790 F.3d 138
    , 144
    (D.C. Cir. 2015) (per curiam), judgment entered, 812 F. App’x
    4 (D.C. Cir. 2020)). Section 111 of the Act, which Congress
    added in 1970, directs EPA to regulate any new stationary
    sources of air pollutants that “cause[], or contribute[]
    significantly to, air pollution” and that “may reasonably be
    anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” Am. Lung
    Ass’n v. EPA, 
    985 F.3d 914
    , 930 (D.C. Cir. 2021) (alterations
    in original) (citing 
    42 U.S.C. § 7411
    (b)(1)(A)). Pursuant to
    Section 111(b), once EPA has identified a pollutant that
    endangers the public health or welfare and a category of source
    that emits that pollutant, the Agency must issue mandatory
    standards of performance for new and newly modified sources
    in the category. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7411
    (b)(1)(B); see also 
    id.
    § 7411(a)(1), (e). EPA is required to set standards that
    “reflect[] the degree of emission limitation achievable through
    7
    the application of the best system of emission
    reduction.” Id. § 7411(a)(1). In setting those standards, the
    Agency must also account for “the cost of achieving”
    emissions reductions, as well as health, environmental, and
    energy considerations. Id. The Act requires that the Agency
    review those standards “at least every 8 years” insofar as
    “appropriate in light of readily available information on the
    efficacy of [the] standard[s],” and that it revise the standards as
    necessary. Id. § 7411(b)(1)(B).
    EPA promulgated new-source performance standards to
    regulate emissions from residential wood heaters under Section
    111(b)(1) of the Clean Air Act for the first time in 1988. See
    1988 Rule, 
    53 Fed. Reg. 5,860
    . Wood heaters emit what EPA
    refers to as residential wood smoke, which includes particulate
    matter. Standards of Performance for New Residential Wood
    Heaters, New Residential Hydronic Heaters and Forced-Air
    Furnaces, and New Residential Masonry Heaters, 
    79 Fed. Reg. 6,330
    , 6,332, 6,337 (Feb. 3, 2014) (hereinafter 2014 Proposed
    Rule). Particulate matter—essentially small particles of
    pollutants—has a variety of negative human health effects,
    including shortness of breath, heart problems, and premature
    death. Likewise, negative health effects from harmful
    chemicals in wood smoke, such as carbon monoxide,
    formaldehyde, nitrogen oxide, and polycyclic aromatic
    hydrocarbons, range in severity from allergic reactions to lower
    birthweights and increased risk of death for newborns of
    mothers exposed to wood smoke. Formaldehyde interferes
    with proper lung function and can cause cancer in humans and
    animals. Nitrogen oxide affects the lungs and impairs the
    body’s ability to fight respiratory infections. Each year,
    “residential wood combustion accounts for 44 percent of total
    stationary and mobile polycyclic organic matter . . . emissions,
    which account for nearly 25 percent of all area source air toxics
    cancer risks and 15 percent of noncancer respiratory effects.”
    8
    2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,673 (footnote omitted). EPA has
    noted that the most harmful health effects from residential
    wood smoke tend to be felt by older adults, children, and
    people with preexisting heart or lung disease, and that its harms
    are disproportionately borne by low-income populations and
    people of color. Because standards controlling particulate
    matter also effectively limit accompanying chemical
    pollutants, EPA has chosen to establish a particulate matter
    limit. 1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,861. In the 2015 Rule, EPA
    concluded that “the public health benefits of this rule outweigh
    the costs by more than 100 times.” 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,673.
    In the 1988 Rule, the Agency chose a certification-and-
    audit approach to regulate residential wood heaters, which
    differs substantially from how the Agency regulates industrial
    and commercial-scale sources.            EPA’s regulation of
    commercial and industrial sources typically imposes new
    source performance standards on every new industrial source
    and requires compliance testing and monitoring to verify each
    source’s adherence to those standards. See Standards of
    Performance for New Stationary Sources; Standards of
    Performance for New Sources; Residential Wood Heaters, 
    52 Fed. Reg. 4,994
    , 5,010 (Feb. 18, 1987) (hereinafter 1987
    Proposed Rule). In the proposed version of the original wood-
    heater rule, EPA noted that, because “[t]he cost of a test series
    is several times the cost of a typical wood heater,” and wood
    heaters are mass-produced consumer items, “a compliance
    scheme requiring that each facility be tested would be very
    costly.” 
    Id. at 4,995
    . To avoid imposing costs that could prove
    prohibitive for the small businesses manufacturing wood
    stoves for residential use, EPA instead provided for categorical
    certification of an entire model line based on testing of a
    representative heater, backstopped by a program of random
    audit testing to deter and correct for errors at certification and
    to ensure continued compliance. That regulatory approach
    9
    minimizes the costs of both certification and audit testing and
    spreads the audit-testing costs evenly among manufacturers.
    See 1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,861; 1987 Proposed Rule, 52
    Fed. Reg. at 4,995, 5,010.
    A manufacturer seeking certification of its residential
    wood heaters under the 1988 Rule could elect to test a
    representative heater for a model line and submit the results in
    support of its application to EPA for the certification needed to
    sell that model line. 1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,861. The
    1988 Rule required certification-stage emissions testing to be
    conducted in an EPA-accredited laboratory using one of four
    EPA-approved emissions sampling methods. Id. at 5,860. The
    regulations specified procedures for each step of the emissions
    testing, including how to set up the heater, load test fuel into
    the heater, and operate the heater. Id. at 5,861. Tests were to
    be done using a “crib” wood configuration as fuel, with spacers
    and lumber of specified size. Id. at 5,901; see also id. at 5,911;
    2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,677-78. EPA phased in the
    emissions limits over two years, resulting in emissions limits
    by 1990 of 4.1 grams of particulate matter per hour (g/hr) for
    catalytic wood heaters, and 7.5 g/hr for noncatalytic wood
    heaters. 1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,860.
    The 1988 Rule authorized EPA to conduct random
    compliance audits. It provided that EPA would direct the
    laboratory that had done the certification-stage testing to retest
    a heater from any model line at the manufacturer’s expense,
    using the same test method and procedure used during
    certification testing for that model line; in response to
    manufacturer concerns, EPA conditionally deferred
    authorizing audit testing at any laboratory other than the
    certifying laboratory. Id. at 5,878. If a wood heater failed to
    meet the applicable emissions limit during audit testing, EPA
    would propose revocation of the certificate of compliance for
    10
    that model line. Id. A manufacturer could then seek a hearing
    to present its rebuttal case against the proposed revocation
    before EPA would suspend the certification. Id. at 5,878-79.
    In promulgating the 1988 Rule, EPA recognized that
    emissions testing of wood-burning heaters could be imprecise.
    The Agency acknowledged a commenter’s concerns about
    variability in the results of both tests of a single appliance
    conducted at the same laboratory (intralaboratory variability)
    and tests of a single appliance across different labs
    (interlaboratory variability). See id. at 5,870-71. EPA noted:
    The Agency is collecting additional data to
    determine the expected precision before enforcement
    audits are conducted on an interlaboratory basis.
    Analyses of these data will be conducted in a
    statistically sound manner and the results will be
    published when available. As described in the
    preamble to the proposal, the interlaboratory
    precision value assumed during the negotiations was
    1 g/hr. If the results of the interlaboratory analysis
    show a value greater than this is appropriate, the
    interlaboratory component of precision will be used
    in evaluating audit data.
    Id. at 5,871.
    The “limited amount of data available” to EPA when it
    promulgated the 1988 Rule reflected variability in repeated
    testing by the same laboratory “within 1 g/hr for a four test run
    average.”     See id.    Citing unresolved concerns about
    “intralaboratory precision,” id., among others, EPA set the
    permissible emissions rate to be significantly more lenient than
    rates many existing heaters had achieved, see id. at 5,870-71.
    Given manufacturers’ concerns and the scant data available,
    EPA added a 1 g/hr margin to the emissions limits to account
    11
    for the intralaboratory precision value and deferred authorizing
    enforcement audits at laboratories other than the certification-
    test lab. Id. at 5,871. Referring to negotiations with
    manufacturers in the rulemaking process, EPA’s statement that
    “the interlaboratory precision value assumed during the
    negotiations was 1 g/hr,” id. (emphasis added), suggests the
    shared assumption at the time was that variation among results
    of tests conducted in the same way on the same model heater
    by a different laboratory was the same as variation of results
    from the same laboratory. Noting that it was “collecting
    additional data to determine the expected precision before
    enforcement audits are conducted on an interlaboratory basis,”
    EPA anticipated that if further analysis demonstrated
    variability greater than 1 g/hr it would consider the
    “interlaboratory component of precision . . . in evaluating audit
    data,” id., and presumably account for it in any authorization
    of testing by different labs.
    B. History of the 2015 Rule
    In 2014, EPA proposed updating the performance
    standards for residential wood heaters. It did so in light of the
    proliferation of cleaner and more efficient designs and
    technology for such devices, and in response to lawsuits by
    several states and environmental groups seeking to force the
    Agency to fulfill its statutory duty to update its residential
    wood heater standard pursuant to Section 111(b)(1)(B) of the
    Clean Air Act. See 2014 Proposed Rule, 79 Fed. Reg. at 6,338;
    see also State Amici Br. 6-7. After notice and comment, EPA
    finalized revised standards in 2015. 2015 Rule, 
    80 Fed. Reg. 13,672
    . The 2015 Rule applies prospectively to heaters
    manufactured after its effective date. 
    Id. at 13,676
    .
    The 2015 Rule maintains the certification-and-audit
    regulatory framework established in the 1988 Rule. It expands
    12
    the applicability of the standard, which under the 1988 Rule
    had only applied to “room heaters” that heat an area
    immediately surrounding the device, to also cover “central
    heaters” used to warm larger areas with air or liquid heated in
    the device and distributed via ducts or pipes throughout the
    residence. See id.; 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.5473
    .
    Commenting on the proposed rule, petitioner HPBA urged
    EPA to abandon audit testing altogether, or at least to authorize
    audit tests by a laboratory other than the one that did the
    certification testing only if it employed less stringent emissions
    limits to account for what HPBA asserted was greater inter-
    than intralaboratory variability. Comments of Hearth, Patio &
    Barbeque Association on EPA’s Proposed Standards, 
    79 Fed. Reg. 6,330
     (Feb. 3, 2014) at 30 (hereinafter HPBA Comment).
    HPBA pointed to a 2010 study by Rick Curkeet and Robert
    Ferguson. 
    Id.
     (citing Rick Curkeet & Robert Ferguson, EPA
    Wood Heater Test Method Variability Study (Oct. 6, 2010)
    (hereinafter Curkeet-Ferguson Study)). That study generally
    concluded that “[v]ariability in wood heater emission testing
    results for any given appliance is most likely a function of the
    random nature of burning wood, no matter how tightly you try
    to control the process.” Curkeet-Ferguson Study 19. The
    authors acknowledged that testing is “certainly capable of
    reliably distinguishing between good and bad performance,”
    but nonetheless concluded that “it cannot reliably distinguish
    between ‘good, better and best’ performance.” 
    Id.
     In urging
    EPA to restrict audit testing to the certification-test lab, HPBA
    highlighted the study’s conclusion that variability could range
    from 4.9 to 9.8 grams per hour higher or lower “if the appliance
    were tested again at a different laboratory” from the certifying
    lab. 
    Id. at 8
    ; see also HPBA Comment 69 n.179.
    EPA chose not to restrict audit testing to the certification
    test lab. In its response to comments on the 2014 Proposed
    13
    Rule, EPA explained that inherent methodological and
    computational flaws in the study on which HPBA relied
    seriously undermined that study’s conclusions regarding the
    poor reproducibility of proficiency testing. EPA pointed to
    other data showing that testing variability could be sufficiently
    addressed by using only the test method shown to be the most
    reliable and adding regulatory incentives for laboratories to
    report accurate results. EPA Response to Comment on
    Proposed Rule (Feb. 2015) 236 (hereinafter Response to
    Comments). Remaining open to the prospect there might
    nonetheless be some degree of interlaboratory variability not
    addressed by those measures, EPA included in the audit
    provisions an opportunity for manufacturers to submit
    evidence to rebut a proposed certification-revocation decision,
    thereby allowing a manufacturer to present evidence that, for
    example, a finding of excess emissions should be discredited
    due to test variability. The 2015 Rule also accounted for
    potential residual testing variability by adding a compliance
    margin to the emissions limit announced in the proposed rule.
    In HPBA’s view, EPA failed adequately to respond to its
    comments, adopting audit provisions in the 2015 Rule that are
    unsupported by the record. Three changes effected by the 2015
    Rule provide relevant context for HPBA’s challenge.
    First, the 2015 Rule refines how emissions testing of wood
    heaters is to be conducted. Whereas the 1988 Rule approved
    four different test methods, EPA recognized by 2015 that
    better-controlled methods decreased the variability of results.
    EPA thus limited its approval to a single method, Method 28,
    an improved version of the most repeatable (by the same lab)
    and reproducible (by different labs) of the four testing methods
    allowed under the 1988 Rule. See 2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    13,682, 13,709. Even the study on which HPBA principally
    bases its challenge concluded that the variability of the best of
    14
    the previously approved methods (Method 5G-3) is ten times
    lower than that of other previously approved methods.
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study 15 n.8, 19. The 2015 Rule also
    authorizes an alternative configuration of the wood that may be
    used in emissions testing, expanding fuel choice beyond the
    “crib wood” previously required to also allow testing with
    “cord wood,” which more closely resembles what a typical
    homeowner might use. EPA authorized use of either crib wood
    or cord wood and set different emissions limits for tests using
    each wood type. See 2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,684; 2014
    Proposed Rule, 79 Fed. Reg at 6,340.
    Second, the final audit provisions in the 2015 Rule
    eliminate the requirement that the same laboratory that
    conducted the original certification test for a model line also
    conduct any audit testing, instead allowing audit testing under
    the EPA-approved method by any accredited, EPA-approved
    laboratory. EPA has also imposed a conflict-of-interest
    requirement for laboratories, stating that test labs may not
    receive any financial benefit from the outcome of emissions
    tests. 2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,710.
    Third, the 2015 Rule adopts more stringent emissions
    limits, to be phased in over five years. But, in response to
    comments calling for the standards to incorporate a compliance
    margin to accommodate testing variability, the final rule
    includes less stringent emissions limits than the 2014 proposal.
    Id. at 13,686-87. Whereas the 1988 Rule had set limits of 4.1
    to 7.5 g/hr for room heaters, EPA set the final limits for room
    heaters tested with crib wood at 2 g/hr, and for those tested with
    cord wood at 2.5 g/hr. For all central heaters, which the prior
    rule had not reached, EPA set the emissions limit at 0.15
    pounds per million British thermal units (lb/mmBtu). Id.
    15
    In view of the evidence before it and the other measures it
    promulgated, EPA deemed it unnecessary to adopt the
    manufacturers’ proposal to add more leeway to the audit
    provision for any imprecision specifically associated with
    interlaboratory testing. See id. In both the 2014 Proposed Rule
    and its Response to Comments on that proposal, EPA explained
    that imprecision attributable to testing being done by a different
    lab had not been demonstrated. The Agency stated that
    requiring better testing methodology and controlling for
    conflicts of interest on the part of certification-test labs sufficed
    to ensure emissions would be measured accurately, whether by
    the same or a different EPA-approved laboratory. See 2014
    Proposed Rule, 79 Fed. Reg at 6,356; Response to Comments
    236.
    C. Procedural history
    On March 16, 2015, petitioner HPBA and four other trade
    association and manufacturer petitioners sought review of the
    2015 Rule in this court. This case was held in abeyance after
    EPA published an advance notice of proposed rulemaking in
    2018, which did not suggest any changes to the 2015 Rule but
    solicited comments on specified issues to inform future
    rulemaking, including the compliance date for the final phased-
    in emissions standard and the question whether the audit
    provisions should more specifically address variability.
    Standards of Performance for New Residential Wood Heaters,
    New Residential Hydronic Heaters and Forced-Air Furnaces
    (Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking), 
    83 Fed. Reg. 61,585
    , 61,592 (Nov. 30, 2018). Once EPA responded to the
    comments it had solicited, see Standards of Performance for
    New Residential Wood Heaters (Final Rule), 
    85 Fed. Reg. 18,448
    , 18,453 (Apr. 2, 2020), all petitioners other than HPBA
    voluntarily dismissed their petitions.
    16
    The current petition challenges only EPA’s decision to
    allow audit testing—included in the rule since it was
    promulgated in 1988—to be conducted by laboratories other
    than the same one that did the certification testing on the heater
    in question. HPBA does not challenge the more demanding
    emissions limits set by EPA in the 2015 Rule. Rather, it claims
    only that authorization of testing by any accredited, EPA-
    approved lab is invalid for failure to account for what HPBA
    claims is testing variability that occurs when audit tests are
    done by a lab other than the one the manufacturer hired at the
    certification stage. HPBA argues that EPA arbitrarily reversed
    course from the 1988 Rule without acknowledging its change
    of course or supporting and explaining the 2015 Rule’s
    approach to interlaboratory variability, all of which HPBA
    contends renders the rule arbitrary and capricious.
    II. JURISDICTION
    Before reaching the merits, we must determine whether we
    have jurisdiction. Neither EPA nor the intervenors or amici in
    its support questioned HPBA’s standing, but the court has an
    independent obligation to satisfy itself of its own jurisdiction.
    EPA does, however, raise a ripeness challenge to the petition.
    So we first confirm that HPBA has standing and that its petition
    is ripe. See Ctr. for Sustainable Econ. v. Jewell, 
    779 F.3d 588
    ,
    596 (D.C. Cir. 2015).
    A. Petitioner HPBA has demonstrated its standing
    Petitioner     HPBA        claims    “associational”      or
    “representational” standing to challenge the audit-testing
    provision of the 2015 Rule on behalf of its member
    businesses—as distinct from “organizational” standing on its
    own behalf. See Hunt v. Wash. State Apple Advert. Comm’n,
    
    432 U.S. 333
    , 343 (1977). “An organization has associational
    standing to bring suit on its members’ behalf when: (1) at least
    17
    one of its members would have standing to sue in his or her
    own right; (2) ‘the interests it seeks to protect are germane to
    the organization’s purpose’; and (3) ‘neither the claim asserted
    nor the relief requested requires the participation of individual
    members in the lawsuit.’” Sierra Club v. FERC, 
    827 F.3d 59
    ,
    65 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (quoting WildEarth Guardians v. Jewell,
    
    738 F.3d 298
    , 305 (D.C. Cir. 2013)).
    It is HPBA’s burden as the party invoking federal
    jurisdiction to demonstrate standing, “which must be supported
    in the same way as any other matter on which the party bears
    the burden of proof.” Twin Rivers Paper Co. v. SEC, 
    934 F.3d 607
    , 613 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (formatting modified). We review
    agency action on the administrative record—akin to our review
    of a district court’s decision on cross motions for summary
    judgment in a case in which the factual record is uncontested
    and the parties’ dispute is over legal implications. See CTS
    Corp. v. EPA, 
    759 F.3d 52
    , 64 (D.C. Cir. 2014). “It is ‘black-
    letter administrative law that in an [Administrative Procedure
    Act] case, a reviewing court should have before it neither more
    nor less information than did the agency when it made its
    decision.’” 
    Id.
     (quoting Hill Dermaceuticals, Inc. v. FDA, 
    709 F.3d 44
    , 47 (D.C. Cir. 2013)).
    Because Article III’s constraints apply to courts and not
    executive agencies, the obligation to establish standing in a
    case that originates in an agency arises with the first court
    filing. Regarding challenges to agency action that may be filed
    directly in this court, we have noted that
    [i]n many if not most cases the petitioner’s standing
    to seek review of administrative action is self-
    evident; no evidence outside the administrative
    record is necessary for the court to be sure of it. In
    particular, if the complainant is “an object of the
    18
    action (or forgone action) at issue”—as is the case
    usually in review of a rulemaking and nearly always
    in review of an adjudication—there should be “little
    question that the action or inaction has caused him
    injury, and that a judgment preventing or requiring
    the action will redress it.”
    Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    292 F.3d 895
    , 899-900 (D.C. Cir. 2002)
    (quoting Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 561-62
    (1992)).
    But sometimes the evidence supporting standing is absent
    from or not readily identified in the administrative record. Our
    circuit rules provide that “[w]hen the appellant’s or petitioner’s
    standing is not apparent from the administrative record, the
    brief must include arguments and evidence establishing the
    claim of standing.” D.C. Cir. R. 28(a)(7) (concerning contents
    of briefs and requirements related to standing). We have held
    that, “[w]hen the petitioner’s standing is not self-evident . . .
    the petitioner must supplement the record to the extent
    necessary to explain and substantiate its entitlement to judicial
    review.” Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 900
    .
    Petitioner HPBA’s standing statement in its brief was
    conclusory. The briefing did not point to anything in the
    administrative record establishing that it has one or more
    members that manufacture heaters regulated by the challenged
    provisions of the 2015 Rule, nor did HPBA submit to us
    declarations or other competent evidence to that effect.
    HPBA’s counsel was unable at oral argument to name any of
    HPBA’s members that are manufacturers of wood heaters
    subject to the Rule. See Transcript of Oral Argument at 35-36.
    The question, then, is whether it was reasonable for HPBA,
    whose members appeared to include some businesses
    manufacturing wood stoves, perhaps including residential
    19
    wood heaters subject to the challenged rule, to have assumed
    that its standing was “self-evident” based on the administrative
    record.
    We have acknowledged that the language of the circuit
    rule explaining when a petitioner must make factual
    submissions supplemental to the record “is hardly free from
    ambiguity because what may be apparent from the
    administrative record to one reasonable person may seem less
    clear to another.” Ams. for Safe Access v. DEA, 
    706 F.3d 438
    ,
    445 (D.C. Cir. 2013) (internal quotations omitted). This court
    takes care to eschew any “‘gotcha’ construction” that “would
    have the undesirable effect of causing parties to include long
    jurisdictional statements in practically all opening briefs for
    fear that the court might find their standing less than self-
    evident.” Am. Library Ass’n v. FCC, 
    401 F.3d 489
    , 494 (D.C.
    Cir. 2005). After all, “[t]his would waste, rather than conserve,
    judicial resources and place an unnecessary burden on
    litigants.” 
    Id.
    That said, because “[t]here may be a disjunction between
    what a petitioner assumes that the court knows about its
    organization and operation and what the court actually knows,”
    
    id. at 494-95
    , and because we cannot simply “accept[] [an]
    organization[’s] self-description[] of [its] membership,”
    Summers v. Earth Island Inst., 
    555 U.S. 488
    , 499 (2009),
    “[w]hen a petitioner claims associational standing, it is not
    enough to aver that unidentified members have been injured.”
    Chamber of Com. of U.S. v. EPA, 
    642 F.3d 192
    , 199 (D.C. Cir.
    2011). Instead, a petitioner relying upon associational standing
    should explain in its opening brief how each of the challenged
    agency action affects or injures one or more of its members,
    identify those members, and point to evidence in the
    administrative record or in a declaration that shows those
    persons or entities are actually members of petitioner’s
    20
    association and how the challenged agency action affects them.
    Id.; see also Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    754 F.3d 995
    , 1001 (D.C. Cir.
    2014) (standing not shown where petitioner failed to present
    evidence one of its members actually suffered an injury in fact).
    Nonetheless, “under the law of this circuit, the members of
    a panel retain discretion to seek supplemental submissions on
    standing to fulfill the obligation of the court to determine
    whether the requirements of Article III have been met.” Ams.
    for Safe Access, 706 F.3d at 444. We have invited
    supplemental submissions in cases where, as here, the nature
    of the business of a petitioner’s individual members or the
    specific products they might manufacture, or some other
    pertinent characteristic, was not sufficiently clear from the
    administrative record to allow us to discern a claim of Article
    III injury. See Am. Library Ass’n, 401 F.3d at 496. See also
    generally McNary v. Fed. Mine Safety & Health Rev. Comm’n,
    
    989 F.3d 21
    , 23 (D.C. Cir. 2021) (supplemental submission
    invited on redressability); Sissel v. U.S. Dep’t of Health &
    Hum. Servs., 
    760 F.3d 1
    , 5 (D.C. Cir. 2014) (same on plaintiff’s
    employment and income); Pub. Citizen, Inc. v. Nat’l Highway
    Traffic Safety Admin., 
    489 F.3d 1279
    , 1296-97 (D.C. Cir. 2007)
    (same on risk of harm to organization’s members); Ctr. for
    Sustainable Econ., 779 F.3d at 598-99 (same on organization’s
    mission and bylaws); Am. Chemistry Council v. Dep’t of
    Transp., 
    468 F.3d 810
    , 815, 819 (D.C. Cir. 2006) (same on
    nature and imminence of harm to organization’s members).
    Following oral argument, we invited HPBA to submit
    information not included in the Joint Appendix to point out to
    the court the support they referenced at argument for their very
    general assertions that they have members directly regulated by
    the 2015 Rule. HPBA by letter submitted the full text of its
    comment to EPA, which identified Jotul and Pacific Energy as
    member manufacturers of room wood heaters and central wood
    21
    heaters. See Pet’r Letter Providing Information Requested by
    the Court During January 28, 2021 Oral Argument, ECF No.
    1882541, at 168-78 (Jotul); id. at 179-81 (Pacific Energy).
    Those are the two types of heaters covered by the other-lab
    audit authorization HPBA challenges. HPBA should have
    included those parts of the administrative record in the Joint
    Appendix and should have specifically explained and
    referenced them in its opening brief. See D.C. Cir. R. 28(a)(7).
    Nonetheless, we are satisfied that HPBA’s post-argument
    submission suffices to establish standing to challenge the 2015
    Rule’s audit provisions as they apply to both room heaters and
    central heaters.
    Having established that at least one HPBA member has
    standing to challenge the audit provisions for each heater type,
    we turn to a second threshold question: whether that challenge
    is ripe.
    B. Petitioner HPBA’s claims are ripe for review
    EPA argues that HPBA’s challenge to the 2015 audit
    provisions is unripe because “EPA has not yet audited a single
    device under the 2015 Rule,” and “HPBA’s hypothetical
    concerns of revocation following a failed audit test may never
    come to pass.” EPA Br. 37. In the event the Agency issues a
    notice of revocation of a device’s certification as the result of a
    failed audit, EPA points out that it may consider “any relevant
    information” at a rebuttal hearing, including evidence of the
    variability HPBA claims must be taken into account at the audit
    stage. 
    40 C.F.R. § 60.533
    (n)(3)(v).
    Those arguments characterize the petition too narrowly.
    “Determining whether administrative action is ripe for judicial
    review requires us to evaluate (1) the fitness of the issues for
    judicial decision and (2) the hardship to the parties of
    withholding court consideration.” Cement Kiln Recycling
    22
    Coal. v. EPA, 
    493 F.3d 207
    , 214 (D.C. Cir. 2007) (quoting
    Nat’l Park Hosp. Ass’n v. Dep’t of Interior, 
    538 U.S. 803
    , 808
    (2003)). It is well established that “a purely legal claim in the
    context of a facial challenge . . . is presumptively reviewable.”
    Id. at 215 (quoting Nat’l Ass’n of Home Builders v. U.S. Army
    Corps of Eng’rs, 
    417 F.3d 1272
    , 1282 (D.C. Cir. 2005)); see
    Nat’l Ass’n of Home Builders, 417 F.3d at 1282 (“We have
    repeatedly held that claims that an agency’s action is arbitrary
    and capricious or contrary to law present purely legal issues.”
    (formatting modified)). HPBA facially challenges “EPA’s
    authority to require audits to be performed at a laboratory of
    EPA’s choosing, without accounting for interlaboratory
    variability . . . not whether any individual manufacturer might
    somehow avoid revocation despite failing an audit.” Reply
    Br. 3. That claim “presents purely legal issues that must be
    decided based on the administrative record.” Id. “And because
    ‘Congress has emphatically declared a preference
    for immediate review’ with respect to Clean Air Act
    rulemaking, we have no need to consider the ripeness test’s
    second element, namely, the hardship to the parties of
    withholding review.” Nat. Res. Def. Council v. EPA, 
    643 F.3d 311
    , 320 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (quoting Cement Kiln Recycling
    Coal., 
    493 F.3d at 215
    ).
    Petitioner HPBA has standing and its challenge to the 2015
    Rule’s audit provisions is ripe, so we turn to the merits of its
    claim that those provisions are arbitrary and capricious.
    23
    III. MERITS
    We review the 2015 Rule pursuant to 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (b)(1). Under that section, agency action may be
    reversed if it is arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, not
    in accordance with law, or in excess of statutory authority.
    
    Id.
     § 7607(d)(9)(A), (C); see Am. Petrol. Inst. v. EPA, 
    684 F.3d 1342
    , 1347 (D.C. Cir. 2012). To withstand review, an agency
    must have examined all relevant facts and data and articulated
    a rational explanation for its decision, including a reasonable
    connection between the facts and ultimate outcome. Am.
    Petrol. Inst., 684 F.3d at 1347-48. “We cannot look at EPA’s
    decision as would a scientist, but instead must exercise our
    ‘narrowly defined duty of holding agencies to certain minimal
    standards of rationality.’” Murray Energy Corp. v. EPA, 
    936 F.3d 597
    , 608 (D.C. Cir. 2019) (quoting Mississippi v. EPA,
    
    744 F.3d 1334
    , 1342 (D.C. Cir. 2013)).
    HPBA argues that EPA arbitrarily reversed course from
    the 1988 Rule in the 2015 Rule’s audit provisions. In HPBA’s
    view, the 1988 Rule appropriately addressed both
    interlaboratory and intralaboratory variability in test results by
    (1) setting emissions limits at levels that assume variability in
    test results if a device is tested in the same laboratory and (2)
    accounting for imprecision of tests done by different
    laboratories by prohibiting audit testing at a laboratory other
    than the one that did the testing on which the model-line
    certification was based. HPBA Br. 8-11. HPBA claims EPA
    acted arbitrarily and without record support in the 2015 Rule
    by no longer restricting audit testing to the same lab that did
    the certification-stage testing and, in particular, that it could not
    lawfully do so without first making specific findings that
    interlaboratory variability is no greater than intralaboratory
    variability, or at least explaining why it would not. See 
    id.
     15-
    16, 24-26; Reply Br. 16.
    24
    We conclude that the Agency adequately explained the
    changes in the 2015 Rule’s audit provisions and that the
    changes are supported by the record. In proposing those
    changes in 2014, EPA first explained the refinement of its
    understanding. The Agency described how it was amending its
    approach to concerns about variability of test results based on
    more recent testing proficiency data and analyses, and
    improved testing methods. The 2015 Rule does account for
    potential variability in several ways. Although EPA did not
    adopt the approach HPBA favored, the challenged regulatory
    choices are supported by substantial evidence and neither
    arbitrary nor capricious.
    A. EPA considered the data that HPBA submitted
    HPBA’s disagreement with EPA’s interpretation of the
    available testing proficiency data is the crux of its challenge to
    the 2015 Rule’s audit provisions, so we begin by reviewing
    how EPA considered and explained the data. HPBA had
    commissioned studies in 2010 that reported a high level of
    variability in test results. See generally Curkeet-Ferguson
    Study. HPBA contends that EPA failed to account for its data,
    instead simply “ignoring the Curkeet Ferguson Study in the
    record.” HPBA Br. 31. That argument is squarely contradicted
    by the Agency’s direct engagement with the Curkeet-Ferguson
    Study in its 2014 Proposed Rule, Response to Comments, and
    the measures adopted in the final 2015 Rule.
    First, in the 2014 Proposed Rule, EPA anticipated HPBA’s
    concern about reproducibility of test results. EPA’s proposal
    expressly disagreed that “repeatability [by the same lab] and
    reproducibility [by a different lab] of the current test method
    for wood heater emissions . . . may be poor.” 2014 Proposed
    Rule, 79 Fed. Reg. at 6,356; see id. at n.46 (citing Robert
    Ferguson, Final Report: EPA Wood Heater Emission Test
    25
    Method Comparison Study (Dec. 1, 2010)). The Agency
    explained that the reported variability likely derived from “the
    lack of regulatory requirements or incentives for the test
    laboratories to achieve highly reproducible results in
    proficiency testing.” Id. at 6,356. EPA addressed that lacuna
    not only with a margin for variability in the emissions limits
    themselves, but also with more rigorous testing requirements
    and a conflict-of-interest provision. And it observed that the
    results of the tests HPBA identified, which were conducted
    under the 1988 Rule, “do not reflect the proposed changes to
    improve the repeatability and reproducibility of the test
    method.” Id.
    Second, EPA published a study of testing variability it
    commissioned from Brookhaven National Laboratory
    (Brookhaven), which, the Agency explained, showed that the
    “[r]epeatability of cord wood test method” for room heaters can
    be “very good.” Notice of Data Availability in Support of the
    2014 Proposed Rule, 
    79 Fed. Reg. 37,259
    , 37,261 (July 1,
    2014) (hereinafter Notice of Data Availability). Brookhaven
    conducted emissions testing of a “popular non-catalytic EPA-
    certified wood stove using cord wood,” 
    id.,
     at three of the four
    burn rates required by EPA Method 28, see Butcher, T. et al.,
    Brookhaven Nat’l Lab., Cord Wood Testing in a Non-Catalytic
    Wood Stove 6 (June 30, 2014) (hereinafter Brookhaven).
    Results for three tests that Brookhaven ran at the highest burn
    rate were within fifteen percent of each other. Id.; see also
    Notice of Data Availability, 79 Fed. Reg. at 37,261. At the two
    other, lower burn rates tested, the results were within three and
    ten percent of each other. Brookhaven 7, 17. EPA thus
    gathered and described record evidence directly relevant to the
    issue on which HPBA claims the Agency lacked support.
    Following publication of the 2014 Proposed Rule, HPBA
    submitted a comment pressing its interlaboratory-variability
    26
    concern. The comment asserted that test results under the 1988
    Rule were highly variable and argued that EPA in the 1988
    Rule “expressly obligated itself to evaluate interlab precision
    and account for it by adjusting the stringency of the standards,
    if necessary, by amending them through a rulemaking
    proceeding.” HPBA Comment 10. Asserting that data showed
    interlaboratory variability preventing EPA from allowing
    audits by different laboratories, HPBA characterized the
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study as providing confirmation of “the
    variable nature of wood heater emissions testing” and
    establishing that “the major contributor to variability was the
    random nature of burning wood.” Id. at 30; see Curkeet-
    Ferguson Study 7-8. Of course, as EPA has consistently
    acknowledged, variability caused by “the random nature of
    burning wood” affects all testing, whether by the same or a
    different lab; but the Curkeet-Ferguson Study drew
    conclusions it ascribed to the use of different labs. Curkeet and
    Ferguson tested three wood heaters in different laboratories
    under the 1988 standards and calculated that the average
    emissions results for the tested heaters were 3.91, 14.01, and
    6.35 g/hr. They concluded that “for any emissions rate
    measured using the EPA test methods, the result could be 4.9
    to 9.8 grams per hour higher or lower if the appliance were
    tested again at a different laboratory.” Curkeet-Ferguson Study
    8.
    Third, EPA further considered HPBA’s position when, in
    its Response to Comments on the 2014 Proposed Rule, EPA
    explained that a statistical analysis by Washington State’s
    Puget Sound Clean Air Agency (Puget Sound) challenged the
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study’s conclusions regarding the
    magnitude of testing variability. Response to Comments 236.
    Puget Sound evaluated that study and its underlying data and
    identified several deficiencies that together showed the study’s
    data set was neither representative nor reliable, and that any
    27
    real testing variability was far less than Curkeet and Ferguson
    calculated. See Craig Kenworthy, Puget Sound Clean Air
    Agency, Preliminary Review and Critique of Analyses of
    NSPS Test Method Variability (Curkeet, 2010) and the
    Relationship of EPA Certified Values to “In-Home Use”
    (Houck, 2012) (Dec. 5, 2012) 1, 4-5. Puget Sound identified
    three main deficiencies in the Curkeet-Ferguson Study. First,
    the study incorrectly applied statistics appropriate for a normal
    distribution to “non-normal data.” Id. at 5. Second, it
    improperly divided up its data set to draw conclusions from a
    subset of the data that was not representative of the data set as
    a whole, thereby allowing particularly extreme values to be
    highlighted and taken out of context. Id. And third, it conflated
    absolute difference in values with a confidence interval,
    leading to a dramatic overestimation of uncertainty. Id. EPA’s
    consideration of Puget Sound’s detailed critique of the
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study supports the Agency’s decision to
    discount the latter and the conclusions HPBA draws from it.
    A fourth way that EPA engaged with HPBA’s comment
    and the study it proffered was by describing and crediting yet
    another critical assessment of the Curkeet-Ferguson Study,
    conducted by a wood heater manufacturer, the Woodstock
    Soapstone Company (Woodstock Soapstone). The Woodstock
    Soapstone study further supported EPA’s conclusion that the
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study misattributed variable testing results
    to interlaboratory variability rather than the inefficiency of
    outmoded test methods the 2015 Rule abandoned, and the
    conflicted interests of the laboratories conducting the tests.
    Woodstock Soapstone submitted comments on the 2014
    Proposed Rule that included a comparison of the data used in
    the Curkeet-Ferguson Study to Woodstock Soapstone’s more
    recent data for three room heaters. See Morrissey, Woodstock
    Soapstone Company, Comment (Aug. 15, 2014).
    28
    Woodstock Soapstone found variability in test results for
    its own heaters ranging from 0.17 to 0.61 g/hr—far less
    variability than reported by Curkeet and Ferguson. Woodstock
    Soapstone attributed the large difference between the two
    studies’ reported variability to “deep[] flaw[s]” in the Curkeet-
    Ferguson analysis. Id. 1. The Curkeet-Ferguson data set was
    “very small” and some of the “data [wa]s up to 27 years old.”
    Id. 3. And, strikingly, Woodstock Soapstone observed in
    Curkeet and Ferguson’s data that initial certification tests of
    heaters almost always yielded results showing lower levels of
    relevant pollutants than subsequent tests. That skew did not
    seem to reflect random chance. Woodstock Soapstone
    calculated that, all else being equal, there was only a 0.52%
    chance that the pattern of audit test results so much higher than
    certification test results could be attributed to random chance.
    Id. 1. The most reasonable interpretation of the variability in
    the Curkeet-Ferguson data set, Woodstock Soapstone
    concluded, was that the certification tests were conducted in a
    different manner than the subsequent tests. Id.
    In all these ways, the Agency explained how it based its
    current thinking on additional data and critical analysis of the
    study HPBA had presented as substantiating its original
    concerns. We conclude that EPA has “adequately explained its
    reasons for rejecting the data” HPBA highlighted. City of
    Waukesha v. EPA, 
    320 F.3d 228
    , 248 (D.C. Cir. 2003). The
    Agency “specifically analyzed and responded to” the Curkeet-
    Ferguson Study, permissibly concluding that additional
    analyses showed testing variability to be a less fundamental
    problem than HPBA asserted. Int’l Fabricare Inst. v. EPA, 
    972 F.2d 384
    , 394 (D.C. Cir. 1992). The Agency acted responsibly
    by taking account of the more recent analysis of the older data
    used in the Curkeet-Ferguson Study, and by considering the
    newer data used by Brookhaven and in the comment from
    Woodstock Soapstone. See Dist. Hosp. Partners, L.P. v.
    29
    Burwell, 
    786 F.3d 46
    , 57 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (“[A]n agency
    cannot ignore new and better data.”); Catawba County v.
    EPA, 
    571 F.3d 20
    , 45 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (noting that agencies
    “have an obligation to deal with newly acquired evidence in
    some reasonable fashion”). While “[r]easonable people might
    disagree with EPA’s interpretations of the scientific evidence,”
    relative institutional competencies generally mean that “any
    such disagreements must come from those who are qualified to
    evaluate the science, not [this court].” Mississippi v. EPA, 744
    F.3d at 1345. We see no grounds to hold that EPA acted
    arbitrarily or without substantial evidentiary support in relying
    on new data and expert analyses of the Curkeet-Ferguson Study
    to reassess the significance of testing variability.
    B. EPA explained its changed position
    There is also no reason to conclude that EPA made an
    unexplained about-face. The Agency spelled out in the 2014
    Proposed Rule and the Response to Comments how and why
    its understanding had developed. In the 2014 Proposed Rule,
    EPA made clear that it had further considered any potential
    variability in emissions testing results and did not interpret the
    available data to show that emissions from room heaters could
    not be accurately measured. See 79 Fed. Reg. at 6,356. At the
    same time, contrary to HPBA’s assertion, the 2014 Proposed
    Rule did not deny all variability in testing. Rather, based in
    part on evidence of successful implementation of more
    stringent emissions limits in some states, EPA explained that it
    “believe[d] that previous [testing] results” appearing to
    demonstrate substantial variability, while meriting
    consideration, “d[id] not mean that lower emissions standards
    cannot be measured accurately.” Id. The Agency reiterated
    that position in the Response to Comments, where it further
    explained that methodological and computational flaws in the
    Curkeet-Ferguson Study undermined that study’s conclusions
    30
    regarding the poor reproducibility of proficiency testing.
    Response to Comments 236. In view of the intervening
    analyses and new data, the Agency concluded, improved test
    methods and the addition of regulatory incentives for
    laboratories to report accurate results would more
    appropriately address testing variability than would HPBA’s
    preferred response of abandonment or further relaxation of
    standards for audit testing at other labs.
    In the 1988 Rule, EPA had set emissions limits based on
    “the achievable level of wood heater performance, taking into
    account several sources of variability,” and declined at that
    time to authorize audit testing at different labs. 53 Fed. Reg. at
    5,870. The Agency referred to the “limited . . . data available”
    indicating that intralaboratory precision “was within 1 g/hr for
    a four test run average.” Id. at 5,871. The key passage in the
    1988 Rule that HPBA asserts created for the Agency a
    “longstanding obligation to analyze imprecision/variability in
    detail,” HPBA Br. 27, in fact presumptively did not distinguish
    between the degrees of variability within and between testing
    laboratories. EPA expressed readiness to use a different
    precision value if data so indicated, and conditionally
    undertook to further investigate the interlaboratory variability
    that, without the benefit of evidence, it assumed might exist.
    1988 Rule, 53 Fed. Reg. at 5,871. But the referenced need to
    gather data on interlaboratory variability and perhaps to adjust
    the precision value for audits at other labs rested on the
    Agency’s understanding that there were no other adequate
    explanations of the testing imprecision EPA provisionally
    assigned to intra- and interlaboratory variability.
    What HPBA frames as a broken promise on the part of
    EPA is nothing of the sort. HPBA had long asserted that results
    of the same test of the same stove model would somehow vary
    wildly if a different EPA-approved lab conducted the test. But
    31
    once EPA had data and analyses debunking the very basis for
    that suggestion, any reason for EPA to gather and publish
    further data on the point before updating the rule had
    evaporated. In other words, the assumptions the Agency made
    in 1988 when it referred to additional investigation of
    interlaboratory precision no longer made sense by the time it
    promulgated the 2015 Rule. Contrary to HPBA’s position,
    nothing in the 1988 Rule precluded EPA from amending its
    view of the interlaboratory variability issue upon further
    consideration of potential causes of testing imprecision and
    revising the audit provisions as it did in the 2015 Rule.
    C. EPA accounted for testing variability
    HPBA contends that the Agency “effectively assumes
    there is no variability by failing to build imprecision into the
    emissions limits themselves and by placing no limitations on
    audit testing.” HPBA Br. 34. To the contrary, EPA accounted
    for potential variability of test results in the 2015 Rule in at
    least four ways. First, in the final version of the Rule, EPA
    changed the substantive standard from the proposed rule to add
    a 100% compliance margin to the emissions limit for room
    heaters, and a margin of approximately 140% to the limit for
    central heaters. 2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,683. Second,
    EPA improved the repeatability and reproducibility of
    emissions testing by confining approved test methods to those
    shown to be most accurate, and requiring improved methods
    for cord wood testing as supported by the results of the
    Brookhaven study. Id. at 13,677, 13,685; see also 2014
    Proposed Rule, 79 Fed. Reg. at 6,356. Third, the Agency
    included a conflict-of-interest provision to blunt apparent bias
    in certification testing by prohibiting laboratories from
    receiving any financial benefit keyed to the outcome of tests.
    2015 Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 13,710. Fourth, EPA included in
    the audit provisions an opportunity for manufacturers to rebut
    32
    a decision revoking certification with any relevant
    information—including proof that what the audit lab measured
    as excess emissions in fact resulted from test variability. Id. at
    13,709, 13,721.
    EPA reasonably determined and explained that the
    measures it adopted to address potential testing variability for
    wood heaters were sufficient, and its decisions are supported
    by substantial evidence. The Agency permissibly decided not
    to adopt a more lenient emissions level for audit testing by labs
    other than the certifying laboratory, and to instead rely on what
    it concluded were more appropriate measures to ensure
    effective and fair audit testing.
    ***
    For the foregoing reasons, we deny the petition for review.
    So ordered.