San Diego Gas & Electric Co v. FERC , 913 F.3d 127 ( 2019 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued March 15, 2018             Decided January 15, 2019
    No. 16-1433
    SAN DIEGO GAS & ELECTRIC COMPANY,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    FEDERAL ENERGY REGULATORY COMMISSION,
    RESPONDENT
    PACIFIC GAS AND ELECTRIC COMPANY, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    On Petition for Review of Orders of the
    Federal Energy Regulatory Commission
    Kevin King argued the cause for petitioner. With him on
    the briefs were James R. Dean Jr., Mark L. Perlis, and
    Jonathan J. Newlander.
    Rebecca A. Furman and Keith T. Sampson were on the
    brief for intervenors Southern California Edison Company, et
    al., supporting petitioner.
    Carol J. Banta, Attorney, Federal Energy Regulatory
    Commission, argued the cause for respondent. On the brief
    2
    were David L. Morenoff, General Counsel, Robert H. Solomon,
    Solicitor, and Ross R. Fulton, Attorney.
    Bonnie S. Blair, Margaret E. McNaul, Rebecca L. Shelton,
    Lisa S. Gast, Peter J. Scanlon, Michael Postar, and Bhaveeta
    K. Mody were on the joint brief for intervenors Cities of
    Anaheim, Azusa, Banning, Colton, Pasadena, and Riverside,
    California, et al., supporting respondent.
    Before: ROGERS and PILLARD, Circuit Judges, and
    RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge PILLARD.
    Dissenting opinion filed by Senior Circuit Judge
    RANDOLPH.
    PILLARD, Circuit Judge: Petitioner San Diego Gas &
    Electric Company (SDG&E) seeks review of a Federal Energy
    Regulatory Commission (FERC or Commission) declaratory
    order applying FERC’s cancelled or abandoned electricity
    transmission facilities incentive, 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi)
    (Abandonment Incentive), only prospectively, to investment
    that had yet to occur. FERC grants the Abandonment Incentive
    to qualifying transmission infrastructure projects to facilitate
    financing by assuring that ratepayers may be charged for the
    project if it is abandoned for reasons beyond the utility’s
    control. 
    Id. SDG&E’s application
    acknowledged that the
    utility had already obtained needed investment and proceeded
    with the project for four years “without assurance of cost
    recovery for these development costs.” Pet. for Declaratory
    Order of San Diego Gas & Electric Company 16 (Sept. 23,
    2015), Joint App’x (J.A.) 44. Reasoning that the role of the
    Abandonment Incentive is to facilitate investment by hedging
    abandonment risk, rather than to reward investments that
    3
    would happen in any event, the Commission found that
    SDG&E had failed to establish the requisite nexus between the
    Abandonment Incentive and costs it already incurred before it
    obtained the declaratory order. SDG&E claims that the order’s
    limitation to future costs is contrary to the Abandonment
    Incentive’s terms and arbitrary and capricious. For the reasons
    that follow, we deny the petition.
    I.
    A. Regulatory Context
    In an effort to bolster investment in “reliable and
    economically efficient” energy transmission infrastructure,
    Congress in 2005 amended the Federal Power Act (FPA), 16
    U.S.C. § 792 et seq., to require FERC to promulgate a rule to
    establish “incentive-based” rate treatments in order to
    “promot[e] capital investment” in projects to upgrade the
    electricity grid. 
    Id. § 824s(a),
    (b)(1); see Energy Policy Act of
    2005, Pub. L. No. 109-58, § 1241, 119 Stat. 961 (2005)
    (codified as amended at 16 U.S.C. § 824s). Congress’s express
    purpose in calling for such a rule was to “benefit[] consumers
    by ensuring reliability and reducing the cost of delivered power
    by reducing transmission congestion.” 16 U.S.C. § 824s(a). In
    Congress’s view, because such a rate-treatment rule would
    enable needed upgrades to infrastructure on which reliable and
    efficient electric service depends, it would ultimately benefit
    consumers, even as it also cost them. See 
    id. Any rate
    FERC
    approves under the rule, Congress stipulated, must be “just and
    reasonable and not unduly discriminatory or preferential.” 
    Id. § 824s(d).
    The Commission adopted its Incentive Rule the following
    year, see Transmission Infrastructure Investment (Incentive
    Rule), 18 C.F.R. § 35.35 (2006), and refined it through two
    4
    rehearing orders and a policy statement, see Promoting
    Transmission Investment Through Pricing Reform, Order No.
    679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 (2006), order on reh’g, Order No.
    679-A, 117 FERC ¶ 61,345 (2006), order on reh’g, Order No.
    679-B, 119 FERC ¶ 61,062 (2007); Promoting Transmission
    Investment Through Pricing Reform, 141 FERC ¶ 61,129
    (2012) (Policy Statement).
    The Incentive Rule establishes eight categories of
    incentive-based rate treatments for public utilities. 18 C.F.R. §
    35.35(d). Three prerequisites must be met by each applicant
    seeking any of those treatments:
    The applicant must demonstrate [1] that the facilities
    for which it seeks incentives either ensure reliability or
    reduce the cost of delivered power by reducing
    transmission congestion consistent with the
    requirements of section 219 [of the Federal Power
    Act], [2] that the total package of incentives is tailored
    to address the demonstrable risks or challenges faced
    by the applicant in undertaking the project, and [3] that
    resulting rates are just and reasonable.
    
    Id. The Rule
    invites an applicant to request a “package of
    incentives . . . tailored” to its particular needs. 
    Id. In so
    doing,
    the applicant must make its case for including in its rates each
    of the incentive-based rate treatments it requests. The Rule
    defines “incentive-based rate treatment” to mean any of the
    following:
    (i)    A rate of return on equity sufficient to attract
    new investment in transmission facilities;
    (ii)   100 percent of prudently incurred Construction
    Work in Progress (CWIP) in rate base;
    5
    (iii) Recovery of prudently incurred pre-commercial
    operations costs;
    (iv) Hypothetical capital structure;
    (v)   Accelerated depreciation used for rate recovery;
    (vi) Recovery of 100 percent of prudently incurred
    costs of transmission facilities that are cancelled
    or abandoned due to factors beyond the control
    of the public utility;
    (vii) Deferred cost recovery; and
    (viii) Any other incentives approved by the
    Commission . . . that are determined to be just
    and reasonable and not unduly discriminatory or
    preferential.
    
    Id. § 35.35(d)(1).
    The Commission authorized each of these
    incentives as a means to “encourage new infrastructure,” but
    cautioned that they should be applied in a case-specific manner,
    only where appropriate, to avoid “increasing rates in a manner
    that has no correlation to encouraging new investment.” Order
    No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P6.
    The incentive at issue here—the cancelled or abandoned
    transmission facilities incentive, 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi)
    (Abandonment Incentive)—encourages new investment in
    transmission infrastructure projects by offsetting some of the
    largest and least predictable downside investment risks of these
    projects, “such as generation developers’ decisions to develop
    or terminate the development of potential resources or
    difficulty obtaining state or local siting approvals.” Order No.
    6
    679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P155. By assuring recovery of
    costs of projects abandoned for reasons beyond their
    developers’ control, the Abandonment Incentive “provid[es]
    companies with more certainty during the pre-construction and
    construction periods,” Policy Statement, 141 FERC ¶ 61,129 at
    P14, “thereby facilitating investment in these projects,” Order
    No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P155. An applicant for the
    Abandonment Incentive must show that it faces the kinds of
    known but uncontrollable cancellation risks that, without the
    incentive, could impair the applicant’s ability to attract
    investment to the project, or raise the utility’s—and, in turn,
    ratepayers’—cost of such investment. The Commission
    explained that it would evaluate applications for this incentive
    on a “case-by-case basis.” Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057
    at P164.
    The Commission developed the Abandonment Incentive
    against the backdrop of its standard, burden-sharing treatment
    of costs of abandoned transmission infrastructure projects. An
    order the Commission issued in 1988 authorized utilities to
    split the costs of cancelled projects 50-50 with their consumers
    through rate increases, provided the utilities demonstrated the
    need to recover the investment, and that the costs at issue were
    prudently incurred. See New Eng. Power Co., Op. No. 295, 42
    FERC ¶ 61,016 (1988); see also New Eng. Power Co., Op. No.
    49, 8 FERC ¶ 61,054 (1979). Under the new Abandonment
    Incentive provision of the Incentive Rule, utilities may, on a
    showing of a nexus between exposure to risk from project
    abandonment and difficulty or costs of attracting needed
    investment, obtain an order of eligibility to recover “100
    percent of prudently incurred costs of transmission facilities
    that are cancelled or abandoned due to factors beyond the
    control of the public utility.” 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi); see
    16 U.S.C. § 824s.
    7
    The Abandonment Incentive is just one of an open-ended
    set of incentive rate treatments the new Incentive Rule
    authorizes, entitlement to which depends on an order of
    approval from the Commission. Each utility that proposes to
    enhance transmission infrastructure may apply for a package of
    incentives customized to its particular circumstances. The
    Commission then determines whether and how the requested
    incentives are warranted before it approves any corresponding
    rate authority.
    Transmission upgrades vary in size, complexity, and the
    risks and challenges they face, so no one-size-fit-all package of
    incentives is—or could be—secured by the Rule itself. The
    Incentive Rule “does not grant incentive-based rate treatments
    or authorize any entity to recover incentives in its rates,” but
    only “informs potential applicants of incentives that the
    Commission is willing to allow when justified.” Order No.
    679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P20. The seven specified
    incentives are themselves partially overlapping and context-
    specific. And the eighth category—a catchall authorization of
    “[a]ny other incentives approved by the Commission,” 18
    C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(viii)—underscores the Rule’s
    contemplation of case-by-case applications based on
    appropriate showings, and that entitlement to an incentive rate
    treatment depends on an order authorizing it.
    All of the incentives share the common overall objective
    of facilitating improvements to transmission infrastructure, but
    they do so in a range of ways. Two of the incentives encourage
    investment in infrastructure projects by providing a way to ease
    a developer’s cash flow in advance of the project coming on
    line, which in turn can improve “the overall financial health of
    a company and its ability to attract capital at reasonable prices.”
    See Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P103. The CWIP
    incentive, see 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(ii), for example, “allows
    8
    recovery of a return on construction costs during the
    construction period rather than delaying cost recovery until the
    plant is placed into service.” Policy Statement, 141 FERC ¶
    61,129 at P12. Similarly, the pre-commercial operations costs
    incentive, 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(iii), allows utilities to
    recover other early project costs incurred before the facility is
    up and running, such as expenditures for “preliminary surveys,
    plans and investigations, made for the purpose of determining
    the feasibility of utility projects and costs of studies and
    analyses mandated by regulatory bodies related to the plant in
    service.” See Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P122 n.82.
    Additional incentives can address the timing of cost
    recovery after a project is in use. The Commission may
    authorize a utility to accelerate depreciation in order to recover
    costs more quickly than over the life of the project—effectively
    charging ratepayers in the near term for facilities that will be in
    use far into the future. See 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(v); Order
    No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P146. Or the Commission may
    allow a utility to defer cost recovery where, for example, it is
    under a retail rate freeze that would prevent full recovery in the
    ordinary course, 
    id. § 35.35(d)(1)(vii)—authority
    the
    Commission has committed to exercise consistently with state
    authority over retail ratemaking, see Order No. 679, 116 FERC
    ¶ 61,057 at P177.
    An application to qualify for any of the rate treatments
    authorized by the Incentive Rule must meet the Rule’s “nexus
    test” by demonstrating that “the total package of incentives”
    the utility seeks is “tailored to address the demonstrable risks
    or challenges faced by the applicant in undertaking the
    project.” 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d). A utility must, in other words,
    show a link between each requested incentive and the utility’s
    ability to address the project’s risks and hurdles that correspond
    to that incentive. See Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at
    9
    P26. The Commission underscored that, because incentives
    must be “rationally tailored” to the risks presented by an
    investment, “[n]ot every incentive will be available for every
    new investment.” 
    Id. The requirement
    of a demonstrated,
    case-specific nexus tethers each authorized incentive rate
    increase to a determination that granting that incentive in a
    given case actually serves Congress’s objective of benefiting
    consumers. To that end, the Commission assured commenters
    on the Incentive Rule that it would scrutinize incentive
    applications to make sure every authorized rate treatment was
    tailored to its relevant objective.
    The Commission identified two ways for utilities to apply
    for incentive-based rate treatments. Under the one-step option,
    a utility may seek a specified increase in its rates under Section
    205 of the FPA. See Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at
    P79. Under the two-step option, a utility may petition for a
    declaratory order establishing its eligibility to increase rates
    pursuant to an applicable incentive and later, armed with the
    declaratory order, seek the Commission’s approval for a
    specific rate increase under Section 205. See 16 U.S.C. § 824d;
    Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at PP76-77, 166. A
    utility’s choice between these procedural options is likely
    influenced by the types of incentives it seeks. The Commission
    noted that the option to apply for a declaratory order well in
    advance of a rate petition would be particularly useful for
    utilities “prior to commencing siting, permitting and
    construction activities because such orders facilitate financing
    and investment in new facilities.” Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶
    61,057 at P77.
    The Commission takes the position that the Abandonment
    Incentive supports recovery of 100 percent of costs prudently
    incurred only insofar as those costs were incurred after the
    effective date of the order approving the utility’s application.
    10
    See PJM Interconnection, LLC, 142 FERC ¶ 61,156 (2013)
    (“PJM II”). In a series of orders, it has similarly limited
    recovery of the incentive to prospective costs. See, e.g., Pac.
    Gas & Elec. Co., 163 FERC ¶ 61,187 at P14 (2018); Citizens
    Energy Corp., 162 FERC ¶ 61,161 at P26 (2018); S. Cal.
    Edison Co., 161 FERC ¶ 61,107 at P44 (2017); Republic
    Transmission, LLC, 161 FERC ¶ 61,036 at P29 (2017); DCR
    Transmission, LLC, 153 FERC ¶ 61,295 at P42 (2015). As
    FERC frames its approach, “the date an order is issued under
    Order No. 679 reflects the separating point between the period
    in which an applicant is entitled to the full Abandoned Plant
    Incentive authorized under Section 219 and 50 percent
    recovery under Opinion No. 295’s cost-sharing policy.” Pac.
    Gas & Elec. Co., 163 FERC ¶ 61,187 at P14.
    B. The Declaratory Order
    SDG&E is a public utility that provides energy services in
    California. It brings electricity to approximately 300,000
    residents in Southern Orange County through a single
    substation. Around 2008, the utility grew concerned that its
    customers would be at risk of service unreliability and even
    prolonged power outages should the sole substation falter.
    SDG&E therefore proposed the South Orange County
    Reliability Enhancement (SOCRE) Project to rebuild and
    upgrade the substation, and replace and relocate several
    transmission and distribution line segments.
    The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is
    a public entity that manages electricity transmission in
    California and operates transmission facilities owned by
    utilities such as SDG&E. In May 2011, the CAISO included
    the SOCRE Project in its 2010-2011 Transmission Plan.
    11
    SDG&E thereafter applied for various federal, state, and
    local permits for the SOCRE Project, including a Certificate of
    Public Convenience and Necessity from the state regulatory
    authority, the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC).
    According to SDG&E’s Vice President, obtaining a Certificate
    of Public Convenience and Necessity is “[a]s a general matter
    . . . a lengthy and complex process” that includes an
    environmental review of the project proposal. Test. of David
    Geier, J.A. 64. SDG&E later claimed that the California Public
    Utilities Commission’s approval process presented “the
    greatest level of risk and uncertainty” for the SOCRE Project.
    Incentive Petition 12, J.A. 40. SDG&E applied for a Certificate
    of Public Convenience and Necessity in May 2012.
    In September 2015, SDG&E sought a declaratory order
    from FERC establishing its eligibility for the Abandonment
    Incentive. SDG&E’s petition stated that it had “already
    expended substantial resources, both direct spending and
    internal labor” on the project, to the tune of approximately $31
    million. See Incentive Petition 16, J.A. 44. It noted that it had
    spent that much—and presumably procured whatever
    financing required to do so—“without assurance of cost
    recovery for these development costs.” 
    Id. As SDG&E
    described the situation, a “substantial percentage of those costs
    were incurred on the preparation of the utility’s development
    plan, and were incurred with no certainty that SDG&E’s
    development plan would be approved by the CPUC.” 
    Id. at 16-
    17, J.A. 44-45. SDG&E does not appear to have applied for
    any other incentive, such as CWIP or pre-commercial
    operations cost recovery under Section 35.35(d)(1)(ii) or (iii).
    The Commission filed a Federal Register notice inviting
    interventions and protests regarding SDG&E’s petition for the
    Abandonment Incentive. See San Diego Gas & Electric Co.;
    Notice of Petition for Declaratory Order, 80 Fed. Reg. 58,729-
    12
    02 (2015). The California cities of Anaheim, Azusa, Banning,
    Colton, Pasadena, and Riverside (Six Cities) filed a formal
    protest that invoked the Commission’s decision in PJM II and
    argued that here, as there, the Commission should not apply the
    Abandonment Incentive to authorize SDG&E to recover from
    ratepayers sunk costs SDG&E had previously incurred. See
    Protest on Behalf of the Cities of Anaheim, Azusa, Banning,
    Colton, Pasadena, and Riverside, California (Oct. 23, 2015),
    J.A. 179, 182. SDG&E had made a voluntary business decision
    to spend $31 million on the SOCRE project without any order
    from the Commission declaring its eligibility for the incentive,
    the Six Cities argued, so no nexus had been shown and
    consumers should not be on the hook to reimburse it for those
    costs in the event the project is abandoned. See 
    id. at 3-4,
    J.A.
    181-82.
    In its March 2, 2016, declaratory order, the Commission
    determined that, should the SOCRE project be cancelled or
    abandoned for reasons beyond SDG&E’s control, the utility
    would be eligible to recover all of its prudently incurred costs
    associated with the SOCRE project going forward. See San
    Diego Gas & Elec., 154 FERC ¶ 61,158 at PP17-18 (2016)
    (Declaratory Order). As for the costs that SDG&E had already
    incurred, the Commission held that SDG&E could share that
    burden with ratepayers under FERC’s 1988 Opinion No. 295,
    which granted utilities authority to charge ratepayers half the
    prudently incurred costs of abandoned transmission facilities.
    See 
    id. at P18;
    New Eng. Power Co., Op. No. 295, 42 FERC
    ¶ 61,016. The Commission reasoned that, while “the risks that
    may necessitate abandonment have generally been known to
    SDG&E since the project was included in the CAISO 2010-
    2011 Transmission Plan, [SDG&E] did not seek approval for
    the Abandonment Incentive for approximately four years.”
    Declaratory Order, 154 FERC ¶ 61,158 at P20. The
    Commission highlighted SDG&E’s acknowledgement that it
    13
    had incurred the costs “without assurance of cost recovery.” 
    Id. (quoting Incentive
    Petition 16, J.A. 44). Allowing recovery of
    SDG&E’s past investment under these circumstances would
    therefore be “contrary to the general policy rationale that
    incentives are designed to encourage future transmission
    investments” and “would violate the objective of benefitting
    consumers.” 
    Id. at P20
    & n.48 (quoting Incentive Ratemaking
    for Interstate Natural Gas Pipelines, Oil Pipelines, and Elec.
    Utils., 61 FERC ¶ 61,168, at ¶ 61,589 (1992)).
    The Commission denied SDG&E’s request for rehearing.
    See San Diego Gas & Elec., 157 FERC ¶ 61,056 (2016)
    (Rehearing Order). In the Rehearing Order, the Commission
    reiterated that, under the Incentive Rule and the PJM II order
    applying it, the Abandonment Incentive covered costs incurred
    after the date of the order granting the incentive. 
    Id. at PP10-
    15 (citing PJM II, 142 FERC ¶ 61,156 (2013)). The result, the
    Commission reasoned, was rooted in the Incentive Rule’s
    nexus test, which requires the applicant “to demonstrate that
    the incentives are rationally related with the investments being
    proposed.” 
    Id. at P16
    (quoting Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶
    61,057 at P48). Thus, when SDG&E asserted that it incurred
    the $31 million in prior costs without assurance of recovery, “it
    conceded that the Abandonment Incentive it seeks here is not
    rationally related to those previously incurred costs.” 
    Id. at P17.
    The Commission determined that, for costs already
    incurred, the nexus test was not met because there was no
    showing that “the incentive was [] needed to encourage
    SDG&E to make the investment in question.” 
    Id. at P19.
    This petition for review followed. Pacific Gas & Electric
    Company and Southern California Edison Company
    intervened in support of SDG&E. The Six Cities intervened in
    support of the Commission.
    14
    II.
    A.    Standing
    We begin by assuring ourselves of jurisdiction over the
    petition. See Steel Co. v. Citizens for a Better Env’t, 
    523 U.S. 83
    , 94-95 (1998). Under Section 313(b) of the FPA, we have
    jurisdiction to review petitions only from parties “aggrieved”
    by an order of the Commission. 16 U.S.C. § 825l(b); cf.
    PNGTS Shipper’s Grp. v. FERC, 
    592 F.3d 132
    , 138-39 (D.C.
    Cir. 2010) (finding a virtually identical provision in the Natural
    Gas Act to be “jurisdictional”). And, under Article III, a
    petitioner’s standing to pursue its claim in federal court
    depends on its identification of a concrete and particularized
    injury that is fairly traceable to the challenged action and would
    be redressable by a favorable court decision. See Lujan v.
    Defenders of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560-61 (1992). A party is
    determined to be aggrieved within the meaning of Section
    313(b) on the same showing of injury that suffices to establish
    standing. See Exxon Mobil Corp. v. FERC, 
    571 F.3d 1208
    ,
    1219 (D.C. Cir. 2009).
    The Commission’s orders concern SDG&E’s eligibility to
    recover a benefit in the event of a future project cancellation or
    abandonment that may or may not occur. But its claimed harm
    is not speculative insofar as SDG&E suffers a concrete and
    immediate economic injury stemming from the demonstrated
    risk of project cancellation. The abandonment may never
    occur, but there is a concrete dispute over the scope of the
    current beneficial assurance due to SDG&E. In its declaratory
    order, FERC recognized that SDG&E faces real and present
    costs due to the risk of a future halt to the project, and FERC
    determined that those costs justified application of the
    Abandonment Incentive. No party disputes that determination;
    all agree that project-cancellation risk makes SDG&E’s
    15
    SOCRE project a less attractive investment for outside funders
    and partners, increasing costs to SDG&E. See Pet’r Br.
    Addendum B, Decl. of David Geier ¶¶ 11-15. We have
    previously held this sort of current economic injury from
    identified risk of future harm sufficient to support standing, see
    Great Lakes Gas Transmission v. FERC, 
    984 F.2d 426
    , 430-31
    (D.C. Cir. 1993), and do so again here.
    B. Analysis
    In the declaratory order under review, the Commission
    held that SDG&E had shown a nexus only between the
    Abandonment Incentive and the utility’s expenditures on the
    SOCRE project going forward. See Declaratory Order, 154
    FERC ¶ 61,158 at PP17, 19. On rehearing, the Commission
    reiterated that the Abandonment Incentive’s nexus test requires
    a showing that authorizing the incentive will “encourage action
    that has not yet occurred.” See Rehearing Order, 157 FERC ¶
    61,056 at P15.        No such nexus existed between the
    Abandonment Incentive and SDG&E’s sunk costs, because
    SDG&E admitted that it incurred those costs “without
    assurance of cost recovery.” 
    Id. at P17
    (quoting Incentive
    Petition 16, J.A. 44). The Commission thought it “reasonable
    to conclude that if SDG&E in fact spent $31 million in
    development costs over an approximately four-year period, a
    significant amount of money over a significant time period, an
    Abandonment Incentive was not needed to encourage that
    investment.” 
    Id. at P19.
    The Commission therefore held that,
    in SDG&E’s case, insofar as the application sought the
    Abandonment Incentive for the portion of the project that was
    already financed and paid for, it lacked the requisite nexus to
    the facilitation of new investment, such as by making capital
    more readily and cheaply available.
    16
    SDG&E challenges the order, claiming that the Incentive
    Rule itself makes an “offer” of incentive treatment, Pet’r. Br.
    12, and that any utility’s qualifying application thus constitutes
    binding acceptance entitling it to all prudently incurred costs.
    SDG&E insists that, for the Abandonment Incentive, the rule
    establishes a “fixed 100 percent recovery rate” of costs of the
    entire “transmission facilities” subject to abandonment. Pet’r
    Br. 13, 23, 34. It thus claims a right, in the event the SOCRE
    project should in the future be abandoned for reasons beyond
    SDG&E’s control, to recover all development costs from the
    Project’s inception, including those costs incurred before the
    Commission deemed it eligible for the Abandonment
    Incentive. Pet’r Br. 31.
    The Commission responds that the Rule sets the general
    terms, but a utility’s entitlement depends on FERC’s approval.
    It could hardly be otherwise.           Electricity transmission
    development projects tend to be complex, varied, and
    expensive—costing many millions or even billions of dollars
    and taking years to complete. The Incentive Rule provides for
    an array of incentive rate treatments, including a catchall “other
    incentives” category, see 18 C.F.R. § 35.53(d)(1)(viii),
    available for customization into an application package that
    FERC approves to the extent it meets a utility’s demonstrated
    need. An applicant must show a nexus between each incentive
    it seeks and that incentive’s role in financing reliable and
    economically efficient transmission infrastructure.           The
    Commission found that nexus to the Abandonment Incentive
    lacking with respect to SDG&E’s investments already made.
    The Commission’s approach comports with both the
    Federal Power Act and the Incentive Rule. When Congress
    amended the Act in 2005, it called on FERC to promulgate a
    rule to “benefit[] consumers by ensuring reliability and
    reducing the cost of delivered power by reducing transmission
    17
    congestion.” 16 U.S.C. § 824s(a); see 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(a)
    (same). The Commission in the preamble to the Incentive Rule
    elaborated that it would not authorize incentives that “simply
    increas[e] rates in a manner that has no correlation to
    encouraging new investment.” Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶
    61,057 at P6. Instead, incentives must be “rationally tailored”
    to the relevant investment and will not function as a “bonus for
    good behavior.” 
    Id. at P26.
    The Commission has underscored
    the key role of the nexus requirement “to ensure that incentives
    are not provided in circumstances where they do not materially
    affect investment decisions.” Order No. 679-A, 117 FERC ¶
    61,345 at P25. We stressed in Connecticut Department of
    Public Utility Control v. FERC that the nexus test is not merely
    “fig leaf for accepting any link, however nominal or trivial,”
    but must be shown to “affect the transmission owners’ conduct
    or benefit consumers.” 
    593 F.3d 30
    , 33-34 (D.C. Cir. 2010).
    The Commission’s order aligns with its “longstanding
    policy that rate incentives must be prospective and that there
    must be a connection between the incentive and the conduct
    meant to be induced.” Cal. Pub. Utils. Comm’n v. FERC, 
    879 F.3d 966
    , 977 (9th Cir. 2018) (citing S. Cal. Edison, 114 FERC
    ¶ 61,018 (2006); ISO New Eng., 96 FERC ¶ 61,359 (2001);
    New Eng. Power Pool, 97 FERC ¶ 61,093 (2001)). Indeed, the
    Commission made clear in a policy statement nearly three
    decades ago that “[i]ncentive rate plans must be prospective.”
    See Incentive Rate Making for Interstate Natural Gas
    Pipelines, Oil Pipelines, and Elec. Utils., 61 FERC ¶ 61,168,
    at ¶ 61,599. Presaging the very reasoning it invoked in the
    order under review, the Commission declared: “A ‘reward’ for
    past behavior,” after all, “does not induce future efficiency and
    benefit consumers.” 
    Id. Our review
    of rate-based incentive
    programs has never questioned the “obvious proposition” that
    the Commission “will not, and cannot, create incentives to
    18
    motivate conduct that has already occurred.” Me. Pub. Utils.
    Comm’n v. FERC, 
    454 F.3d 278
    , 289 (D.C. Cir. 2006); see
    Conn. Dep’t of Pub. Util. 
    Control, 593 F.3d at 34-35
    .
    The Incentive Rule makes a palette of incentive rate
    treatments available to utilities. Transmission infrastructure
    investment projects may be eligible for one or more of the
    seven types of incentives the Rule describes, 18 C.F.R. §
    35.35(d)(1)(i)-(vii), or for some needed “other incentive” not
    within the Rule’s stated categories, 
    id. § 35.35(d)(1)(viii).
    The
    burden is on the utility to show that it qualifies for each
    requested incentive rate. The Rule’s incentives must be sought
    by application and secured by a FERC order. While the utility
    need not demonstrate “but for” causation between a particular
    investment and the incentive it seeks, see Order No. 679, 116
    FERC ¶ 61,057 at P48, the Commission must ensure that
    “incentives are not provided in circumstances where they do
    not materially affect investment decisions,” Order No. 679-A,
    117 FERC ¶ 61,345 at P25. To that end, the nexus test requires
    an applicant to show “that there is a relationship between the
    rate treatments sought and the attraction of new capital.” 
    Id. at P17.
    The logic of the incentive rate treatment at issue here—the
    Abandonment Incentive—supports the Commission treating it
    as unwarranted for SDG&E’s pre-order costs. In the ordinary
    course, utilities recover costs through the rates they charge for
    delivered power. A transmission infrastructure project that is
    abandoned never delivers power, so its costs might not
    ordinarily be chargeable to ratepayers. Project-abandonment
    risk can, however, impede major, cost-effective transmission
    upgrades that are in ratepayers’ interests. Investors hesitate to
    invest in large, expensive projects that may fail before they
    ever earn a dime. And developers of projects facing
    abandonment risk—a kind of risk that, by definition, is major
    19
    and uncontrollable—will pay more for capital. FERC’s
    Abandonment Incentive reflects the recognition that that, given
    the elevated capital costs ratepayers shoulder for all
    infrastructure investment projects at risk of abandonment,
    ratepayers benefit by, in effect, paying to insure potential
    investors against such risk. Specifically, the Abandonment
    Incentive serves ratepayers’ interests when the aggregate
    savings (from all qualifying projects’ lower ex ante capital
    costs, producing more needed reliability improvements) more
    than offset losses (from projects that must be abandoned and
    billed to ratepayers). In other words, the logic of authorizing
    utilities to charge ratepayers for the occasional abandoned
    project is that ratepayers enjoy offsetting benefits from
    improved access to capital on better terms for all other qualified
    transmission infrastructure upgrades.
    SDG&E acknowledges that it incurred substantial costs on
    the SOCRE project before it secured eligibility for the
    Abandonment Incentive. Where, as here, a project faces
    abandonment risk, investors would ordinarily charge risk
    premiums unless they had assurance of abandoned-plant rate
    recovery. Yet there is no evidence that SDG&E’s four years’
    worth of investment in the project was beneficially affected by
    any assurance provided through the Abandonment Incentive.
    Indeed, as FERC recognized, SDG&E’s claim that the
    Incentive Rule facilitated its $31 million in expenditures before
    FERC authorized it to charge incentive rates is belied by
    SDG&E’s own acknowledgement that it incurred those costs
    “without assurance of cost recovery.” Incentive Petition 16,
    J.A. 44; Declaratory Order, 154 FERC ¶ 61,158 at P20. The
    utility’s Vice President repeatedly emphasized in the future
    tense that the incentive “will reduce the financial and
    regulatory risks associated with” transmission investment in
    the SOCRE Project. Test. of David Geier, J.A. 74 (emphasis
    added); accord 
    id. J.A. 75
    (“As a general matter, assurance that
    20
    prudently incurred costs can be recovered should abandonment
    be required for a reason beyond the developer’s control,
    supports investment of significant equity capital on project
    development.”). But SDG&E made no showing how future
    risk-reduction from the Abandonment Incentive affected its
    investments already made.
    By insisting that the timing of a declaratory order matters
    in granting the Abandonment Incentive, FERC reasonably
    accounts for ratepayers’ interests. Where FERC commits
    ratepayers to cover costs of abandoned projects, it should at
    least demand that utilities maximize ratepayers’ benefits from
    those commitments. The longer a utility waits to secure
    abandoned-plant rate authority and the more it spends before
    doing so, the higher its costs of capital in constructing
    successful projects—costs that ultimately are passed on to
    ratepayers. Nothing in the statute or Rule requires that FERC
    authorize charging ratepayers ex post (via rate-recovery for
    failed projects) in the name of generating ex ante benefits
    (capital availability at lower cost) for a portion of those ex ante
    benefits (superior investment terms during the first four years
    of the project) that they never enjoyed. Put differently,
    ratepayers who stand to be billed for risk premiums paid over
    several years should not also be called on to pay for a
    retroactive hedge against the very same risk.
    SDG&E raises several objections, none of which we find
    persuasive.
    First, SDG&E asserts that the regulation itself, rather than
    the Commission’s project-specific declaratory order, amounts
    to a legally binding “offer” of rate treatment. See Pet’r Br. 43-
    46; Pet’r Int. Br. 3. Insisting that “[t]he text of Order No. 679
    could not be clearer,” Pet’r Br. at 44, SDG&E quotes the
    preamble’s assertion that “this [Incentive] Rule . . . provides
    21
    incentives for transmission infrastructure,” Order No. 679, 116
    FERC ¶ 61,057 at P1. SDG&E observes that “a utility can look
    to 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi), determine that its project is
    likely to meet the eligibility criteria, and rely on that
    expectation as motivation to proceed with the project.” Pet’r
    Br. 45. Of course, broadly speaking, SDG&E is correct that
    the mere existence of the Incentive Rule is a general
    inducement to investment in transmission infrastructure. So,
    too, low home-mortgage rates generally encourage
    homebuyers. But not every applicant is automatically entitled
    to every generally available deal.
    SDG&E is simply wrong that the Incentive Rule by itself
    “guarantees” any rate treatment or entitles a utility to any
    specific incentive.       As the Rule’s preamble squarely
    announces: “The Final Rule does not grant incentive-based
    rate treatments or authorize any entity to recover incentives in
    its rates. Rather, it informs potential applicants of incentives
    that the Commission is willing to allow when justified.” Order
    No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P20. The Commission
    expressly cautioned utilities that “not every incentive identified
    herein will be necessary or appropriate for every new
    transmission investment.” 
    Id. at P6;
    see Pac. Gas & Elec. Co.,
    163 FERC ¶ 61,187 (recognizing Abandonment Incentive
    eligibility of some projects but not others).
    Second, SDG&E argues that the Incentive Rule’s
    recognition of two distinct procedural pathways for seeking
    Commission authorization for incentive rates means that the
    timing of a declaratory order that a utility seeks under the two-
    step option cannot affect the scope of eligibility for the
    Abandonment Incentive. As described above, a utility may
    apply for at least some of the incentives in a one-step process,
    by seeking a rate adjustment under Section 205 of the FPA. Or,
    the utility may follow a two-step procedure by first seeking a
    22
    declaratory order establishing its eligibility for one or more
    incentives, and later seeking a corresponding rate adjustment.
    See Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at PP76-79. SDG&E
    contends that the Commission’s application of the nexus test
    conflicts with the Rule by effectively foreclosing applicants
    from seeking the Abandonment Incentive through a Section
    205 rate order alone, thereby “nullifying that one-step
    procedural pathway.” Pet’r Br. at 39. SDG&E observes that a
    utility could only conceivably apply for a determinate rate
    increase under Section 205 pursuant to the Abandonment
    Incentive after abandonment had in fact occurred, by which
    time it would have necessarily already gone ahead with the
    project without the hedge provided by that incentive. Thus, if
    the one-step procedural pathway means anything, SDG&E
    contends, it must—contrary to the challenged approach—
    assure recovery in the absence of any declaratory order and, a
    fortiori, cover pre-declaratory order costs.
    Not so. Nothing in the Rule requires that both one-step
    and two-step pathways be equally appropriate for every type of
    incentive. SDG&E appears to be correct that the Abandonment
    Incentive is only available through the two-step pathway,
    which involves securing a declaratory order in advance and
    later, after project abandonment, petitioning for a rate under
    Section 205. That is because, in order to justify it as a spur to
    investment, the Abandonment Incentive will ordinarily need to
    be in place at the relevant time, when uncontrollable future
    risks would otherwise deter potential investors and put a risk
    premium on capital—i.e., before the relevant costs have been
    successfully financed. See Policy Statement, 141 FERC
    ¶ 61,129 at P14. That reality does not, however, render the
    Incentive Rule’s “one-step ‘option’ . . . no option at all.” Pet’r
    Br. at 38. The one-step pathway can alone suffice where an
    applicant seeks rate treatment under the Accelerated
    Depreciation or Deferred Cost Recovery Incentive provisions,
    23
    see 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(v), (vii). And perhaps a Section
    205 petition would suffice to enable an incumbent utility to
    recover CWIP or pre-commercial operations costs for its new
    construction. See 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(ii), (iii). While those
    incentives might also be secured by a declaratory order in
    advance of a Section 205 petition, they differ from the
    Abandonment Incentive to the extent that they do not operate
    as hedges against future risk followed by rate-based recovery
    only when and if that risk materializes.
    Third, SDG&E contends that we must reject the
    Commission’s approach because the Incentive Rule requires a
    showing of a nexus to “the project” as a whole, or the entire
    “transmission facilities” under development, rather than
    separately to the utilities’ costs incurred before and after the
    declaratory order. See Pet’r Reply Br. 11-12. SDG&E points
    to the Incentive Rule’s introductory language directing
    applicants to demonstrate how the package of incentives they
    seek is “tailored to address the demonstrable risks or challenges
    faced by the applicant in undertaking the project,” 18 C.F.R. §
    35.35(d) (emphasis added), and to the Abandonment Incentive
    subsection of the Rule, which refers to “transmission
    facilities,” 
    id. § 35.35(d)(vi)
    (emphasis added); see Pet’r Reply
    Br. 11. But SDG&E takes that language out of context. There
    is no conflict between the Rule’s requirement that an applicant
    identify risks faced by its project or facilities as a whole, and
    the Commission’s determination that the potential public
    benefit of the Abandonment Incentive supports applying it only
    prospectively. The Commission here did nothing at odds with
    the Incentive Rule’s references to entire projects or facilities.
    It considered the full scope of SDG&E’s request, assessed risks
    that the SOCRE project as a whole would have to be
    abandoned, and determined that further investment in the
    project would be encouraged by authorizing SDG&E, in the
    24
    event of such abandonment, to recover from ratepayers
    SDG&E’s investments after the effective date of the order.
    Fourth, SDG&E similarly contends that the declaratory
    order conflicts with the Incentive Rule by authorizing less than
    the “100 percent” recovery stated in 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(vi).
    Despite the Rule’s two references to “100 percent,” however,
    it is obvious that the relevant subsections do not require an all-
    or-nothing approach. As already discussed, applicants often
    obtain packages of more than one incentive. If the Commission
    were to find a project eligible for rate-based reimbursement for
    CWIP, and for the Abandonment Incentive—each of which
    authorizes recovery of “100 percent of prudently incurred”
    costs, see 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(ii), (vi)—the Rule would not
    support a rate pursuant to the Abandonment Incentive that
    included 100 percent of the costs ratepayers had already been
    charged pursuant to the CWIP allowance. See Order No. 679,
    116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P166. The Rule’s reference to the
    availability of rate authority for “100 percent” of costs simply
    cannot be read to demand all-or-nothing approvals, foreclosing
    authorization for something less where circumstances so
    demand.
    Rather, the Commission grants incentive rate authority
    “when justified” on a “case-by-case basis” in orders tailored to
    the demonstrated needs of each project. See Order No. 679,
    116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P20; Order No. 679-B, 119 FERC ¶
    61,062 at P18. Indeed, the Incentive Rule “requires applicants
    to tailor their proposals to fit the facts of their particular case,”
    Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057 at P5, such that “the
    incentive package as a whole results in [the] just and reasonable
    rate” mandated by the Rule, 
    id. at P2.
    See 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)
    (requiring that the incentives be “tailored to address the
    demonstrable risks” of each project). These overarching
    requirements necessarily call on applicants to demonstrate
    25
    need, and they afford some flexibility to the Commission to
    limit the incentive-rate authority it grants to match that need.
    Just as the Incentive Rule’s text permits the Commission to
    grant less than 100 per cent rate authority in order to reconcile
    multiple incentives, and to devise “other,” case-specific
    incentives for worthy projects, see 18 C.F.R. §
    35.35(d)(1)(viii), it contemplates that the Commission will
    tailor its grants of rate authority to particular features of an
    applicant’s demonstrated needs.
    Finally, we see no merit to SDG&E’s argument that the
    Commission’s treatment of the Abandonment Incentive in
    prior cases renders the orders below arbitrary and capricious.
    The dissent objects that FERC twice granted pre-order costs
    “without imposing the limitation it applied to San Diego.”
    Diss. Op. 10 (citing Pac. Gas & Elec. Co., 137 FERC ¶ 61,193
    (2011), and S. Cal. Edison Co., 137 FERC ¶ 61,252 (2011)).
    In those early Abandonment Incentive cases, the declaratory
    orders made no express determination regarding effective
    dates, and no party objected to the utility’s recovery for the
    period at issue. See Pac. Gas & Elec. Co., 123 FERC ¶ 61,067
    (2008); S. Cal. Edison Co., 121 FERC ¶ 61,168 (2007).
    Although it drew a slightly different line in Pacific Gas &
    Electric—at the application for rather than grant of the
    Abandonment Incentive declaratory order—FERC ultimately
    relied on the same basic logic it employed here to hold that
    costs already incurred were not recoverable. See 137 FERC ¶
    61,193 at PP 2, 19.
    SDG&E also contends that several other cases in fact
    granted pre-order costs pursuant to the Abandonment
    Incentive. But in most of its cited cases, no party filed a protest
    objecting on this ground, as the Six Cities did here. See, e.g.,
    NextEra Energy Transmission W., LLC, 154 FERC ¶ 61,009
    (2016); ALLETE, Inc., 153 FERC ¶ 61,296 (2015); S. Cal.
    26
    Edison, 137 FERC ¶ 61,252; Pac. Gas & Elec., 137 FERC ¶
    61,193. We have previously held that, “[i]n the absence of
    protests,” the Commission’s decision to approve rate increases
    does not amount to “policy or precedent.” Gas Transmission
    Nw. Corp. v. FERC, 
    504 F.3d 1318
    , 1320 (D.C. Cir. 2007); see
    generally Cooper Industries, Inc. v. Aviall Services, Inc., 
    543 U.S. 157
    , 170 (2004) (“Questions which merely lurk in the
    record, neither brought to the attention of the court nor ruled
    upon, are not to be considered as having been so decided as to
    constitute precedents.”) (quoting Webster v. Fall, 
    266 U.S. 507
    ,
    510 (1925)). The dissent’s citation to ANR Storage Co. v.
    FERC, 
    904 F.3d 1020
    (D.C. Cir. 2018), is not to the contrary.
    Diss. Op. 11. In ANR Storage, the Commission had attempted
    to distinguish its conflicting market-power determinations
    regarding two natural gas storage providers, each with
    “virtually indistinguishable” market power in the same market.
    
    Id. at 1025.
    The sole underlying issue was squarely presented
    and necessarily resolved by the agency. 
    Id. at 1025-26.
    In the
    FERC cases cited by SDG&E, in contrast, the question whether
    pre-order costs were categorically available was neither
    contested nor necessarily resolved. What is more, in NextEra
    Energy, ALLETE, and Southern California Edison, the
    Commission did not discuss the pre-order cost issue in granting
    the Abandonment Incentive. See NextEra Energy, 154 FERC
    ¶ 61,009 at P27; ALLETE, 153 FERC ¶ 61,296 at P29; S. Cal.
    Edison, 121 FERC ¶ 61,168 at P71.
    ***
    Because the Commission’s application of the
    Abandonment Incentive is consistent with the Rule and
    supported by substantial evidence, SDG&E’s petition is
    denied.
    So ordered.
    RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge, dissenting:
    I will begin with a hypothetical.
    The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission at the
    beginning of the year announces that any employee who
    provides exceptional service will be eligible for a cash award at
    year’s end. During the year several employees provide what the
    agency deems exceptional service: these employees manage to
    convince a panel majority of the D.C. Circuit of a quite dubious
    proposition – namely, that the prospect of recovering 100
    percent of an investment even if the project fails is not an
    incentive to invest.
    In its annual awards ceremony, FERC adopts the reasoning
    it employed in the case before us. And so it passes over these
    employees although they have rendered exceptional service.
    Why? Because the employees have already performed. No
    need to provide them with a cash award. After all, the
    employees went the extra mile with no assurance of being
    deemed exceptional and receiving any award. See Maj.
    Op. 19–20.
    There is no difference between this hypothetical and
    FERC’s decision here and the treatment of this case in the
    lengthy majority opinion, an opinion confirming the adage that
    sometimes the more you explain it the less anyone can
    understand it.
    The regulation at the center of this case is not complicated.
    A utility is entitled to recover “100 percent of prudently incurred
    costs of transmission facilities that are cancelled or abandoned
    due to factors beyond the control of the public utility.” 18
    C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi).
    Although the regulation provides for the recovery of all
    prudently incurred costs, FERC decided that San Diego Gas &
    2
    Electric could only recover some of those costs. According to
    FERC, the “Abandonment Incentive” applies only to costs the
    utility incurs after FERC has issued an order declaring the utility
    eligible for the incentive.
    I will discuss three basic problems with FERC’s decision.
    These are that the theory on which FERC relies is invalid; that
    the language of the regulation does not support the decision; and
    that FERC’s ruling is an unexplained departure from its
    precedents. I will begin with the theory.
    FERC’s idea is that “incentives cease to be incentives if the
    action they are intended to promote has already occurred.” San
    Diego Gas & Elec. Co., 157 FERC ¶ 61,056, at P. 22 (Oct. 26,
    2016) [hereinafter Rehearing Order]. The majority’s opinion
    echoes this theme, citing “the ‘obvious proposition’ that the
    Commission ‘will not, and cannot, create incentives to motivate
    conduct that has already occurred.’” Maj. Op. 17–18 (quoting
    Me. Pub. Utils. Comm’n v. FERC, 
    454 F.3d 278
    , 289 (D.C. Cir.
    2006)).1 And so according to this theory San Diego did not need
    the Abandonment Incentive for the costs it incurred before
    FERC declared the utility eligible for the incentive.
    The fallacy in this theory is its failure to recognize that
    FERC created the incentive when it promulgated the regulation
    1
    In the case the majority quotes, the court recognized that
    incentive awards can apply to conduct that both pre- and post-dates the
    award. See Me. Pub. Utils. 
    Comm’n, 454 F.3d at 288
    (emphasis
    added) (“FERC reasonably concluded the adder does not only reward
    past action.”); 
    id. at 289
    (emphasis added) (“Here, the RTO has yet to
    be approved and the adder does not reward only past conduct . . ..”).
    3
    in 2006,2 well before San Diego began incurring costs for its
    transmission project. As any economist knows, although
    incentives “must be known to the agent in advance of his
    choice,” they need not be awarded in advance of the choice;
    rather, they function as “an offer” and “a discrete prompt
    expected to elicit a particular response.” Kristen Underhill,
    When Extrinsic Incentives Displace Intrinsic Motivation, 33
    Yale J. on Reg. 213, 223 (2016) (quoting Ruth W. Grant, Strings
    Attached: Untangling the Ethics of Incentives 43 (2012)); see
    also Aaron L. Nielson, Sticky Regulations, 85 U. Chi. L. Rev.
    85, 93 (2018) (“Basic economics suggests that in evaluating a
    potential investment opportunity, a regulated party considers
    how likely it is that incentives will remain in place.”).
    The prompting effect is generated by the announcement of
    the incentive even if the ultimate award is conditioned on some
    later showing and paid after some or all of the performance. See
    Pub. Serv. Comm’n of N.Y. v. FERC, 
    589 F.2d 542
    , 553 (D.C.
    Cir. 1978) (emphasis added) (“In its programs to provide
    incentive for new expenditures the FPC has long been concerned
    with avoiding payment for expenditures ‘sunk’ before the
    2
    In the years leading up to the Energy Policy Act of 2005, Pub.
    L. No. 109-58, 119 Stat. 594, investment in electric transmission
    projects declined “while the electric load using the nation’s grid more
    than doubled,” Promoting Transmission Investment Through Pricing
    Reform, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057, at P. 10 (July 20, 2006) [hereinafter
    Order No. 679], order on reh’g, 117 FERC ¶ 61,345 (Dec. 22, 2006),
    order on reh’g, 119 FERC ¶ 61,062 (Apr. 19, 2007). Utility
    companies constructing new transmission facilities faced substantial
    risks, not the least of which was that after expending considerable
    funds, the company would have to abandon the project for reasons
    beyond its control and could not recover its investment. The Energy
    Policy Act directed the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission to
    establish incentive-based rules in order to reduce such risks and
    encourage investment in transmission facilities. See 
    id. at PP.
    1–14.
    4
    announcement of the incentive . . ..”); Louis Kaplow, An
    Economic Analysis of Legal Transitions, 99 Harv. L. Rev. 509,
    551 (1986) (discussing retroactivity in relationship to “the
    announcement date” of incentives).3
    The majority opinion tries to skirt this problem. It points
    out that San Diego never offered evidence showing that it relied
    on the Abandonment Incentive in deciding to build its
    transmission facility. Maj. Op. 19–20. This is a red herring.
    Under the regulatory regime FERC established, San Diego had
    no obligation to provide such evidence. In the 2006 rulemaking
    on the incentive rules, FERC “reject[ed] arguments that an
    applicant must show that, but for the incentives, the expansion
    would not occur.” Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057, at P. 48.
    FERC’s final rule was instead “based on a clear directive from
    Congress that does not require an applicant to show that it would
    not build the facilities but for the incentives.” 
    Id. That directive
    in section 219 of the Federal Power Act, 16 U.S.C. § 824s, does
    not require “an individual showing of need by incentive
    applicants,” Order No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057, at P. 53.
    The majority opinion also relies on San Diego’s statement
    that some of its pre-order costs were expended “without
    assurance of cost recovery.” Maj. Op. 19. FERC went even
    further. It decided that San Diego’s project was not “rationally
    related” to the incentive because the utility had no guarantee of
    recovering its costs. Rehearing Order, 157 FERC ¶ 61,056, at
    P. 17. There is irrationality here, but it is on the part of FERC
    3
    Consider a common federal incentive: the tax deduction for
    charitable contributions. Announced decades ago by Congress, that
    incentive encourages contributions made before the taxpayer applies
    for the deduction in that year’s return. See 26 U.S.C. § 170(a)(1);
    Stanley S. Surrey, Tax Incentives as a Device for Implementing
    Government Policy, 83 Harv. L. Rev. 705 (1970).
    5
    and the majority opinion. Lack of certain recovery does not
    render the regulation something other than an incentive. Even
    with respect to costs incurred after a FERC declaratory order, a
    utility cannot be certain that it will ultimately qualify for the 100
    percent Abandonment Incentive. After all, the project may or
    may not be abandoned. Even then, there will still be the
    questions whether post-order costs were prudent and whether the
    later termination of the project resulted from factors beyond the
    utility’s control.
    The Abandonment Incentive grew out of a preexisting
    system under which FERC generally awarded 50 percent of all
    prudently incurred costs for abandoned facilities. See New Eng.
    Power Co., 42 FERC ¶ 61,016, 
    1988 WL 243523
    (Jan. 15,
    1988), reh’g granted in part on other grounds, 43 FERC
    ¶ 61,285 (May 19, 1988). That system rested on FERC’s
    longstanding policy of ensuring that utility investors are at least
    partially “shielded against risk of losses resulting from aborted
    projects,” thereby decreasing their “cost of capital.” 
    Id. at *10
    (quoting New Eng. Power Co., 8 FERC ¶ 61,054, at P. 61,177
    (July 19, 1979), order on remand, 10 FERC ¶ 61,279 (Mar. 26,
    1980), modified in part on other grounds, NEPCO Mun. Rate
    Comm. v. FERC, 
    668 F.2d 1327
    (D.C. Cir. 1981)). In other
    words, the prior system also operated as an incentive. It was,
    moreover, an incentive routinely awarded with respect to pre-
    order costs. FERC extended this incentive to cover 100 percent
    of costs for much the same reason, that is, “[t]o reduce the
    uncertainty associated with higher risk projects, thereby
    facilitating investment in these projects.” Order No. 679, 116
    FERC ¶ 61,057, at P. 155. FERC offers no reason to distinguish
    between these two incentives with respect to pre-order costs. To
    the contrary, at the time it promulgated the regulation in this
    case, FERC specifically called for its incentives to apply to costs
    that predated the rule itself by up to roughly one year. 
    Id. at 6
    P. 34. Such costs would, of course, have occurred entirely in
    advance of any order issued under the rule.
    Tying eligibility for the Abandonment Incentive to the date
    of FERC’s order is particularly arbitrary, given that the date of
    the order is untethered to the development of the transmission
    facility in question. The result is that the amount of an
    applicant’s recovery will depend on FERC’s caseload and its
    efficiency in issuing declaratory orders. Here, San Diego lost
    out on more than five months’ worth of Abandonment Incentive
    costs for the period during which its petition was pending before
    the Commission. See Rehearing Order, 157 FERC ¶ 61,056, at
    PP. 1–3.
    This brings me to the text of the regulation. The majority
    defers to FERC’s interpretation. See Maj. Op. 17–18, 20. It
    presumably grants this deference pursuant to Auer v. Robbins,
    
    519 U.S. 452
    , 461–63 (1997), without taking the necessary first
    step of identifying an ambiguity in the regulation.4 The majority
    4
    The Supreme Court recently granted certiorari to consider
    whether to overrule Auer’s rule of deference to agency interpretations
    of ambiguous regulations. See Kisor v. Wilkie, No. 18-15, 
    2018 WL 6439837
    (U.S. Dec. 10, 2018). This case demonstrates the perils of
    deferring to an agency’s wayward interpretation of its own regulation.
    Christopher v. SmithKline Beecham Corp., 
    567 U.S. 142
    , 155–56
    (2012); see also Garco Constr., Inc. v. Speer, 
    138 S. Ct. 1052
    ,
    1052–53 (2018) (Thomas, J., dissenting from the denial of certiorari);
    Perez v. Mortg. Bankers Ass’n, 
    135 S. Ct. 1199
    , 1210–11 (2015)
    (Alito, J., concurring in part and concurring in the judgment); 
    id. at 1211–13
    (Scalia, J., concurring in the judgment); 
    id. at 1213–25
    (Thomas, J., concurring in the judgment); Decker v. Nw. Envtl. Def.
    Ctr., 
    568 U.S. 597
    , 615–16 (2013) (Roberts, C.J., concurring); 
    id. at 616–26
    (Scalia, J., concurring in part and dissenting in part). See
    generally John F. Manning, Constitutional Structure and Judicial
    Deference to Agency Interpretations of Agency Rules, 96 Colum. L.
    7
    does not take this step because the regulation is not in the least
    bit unclear.
    Nothing supports FERC’s distinction between pre- and
    post-order spending. The regulation and the preamble to it in
    the rulemaking are unambiguous. The text of the Abandonment
    Incentive shows that it applies on a project-to-project basis,
    regardless of when or how a utility seeks authorization from
    FERC. Thus, FERC “will authorize” a utility to recover “100
    percent of prudently incurred costs of transmission facilities that
    are cancelled or abandoned due to factors beyond the control of
    the public utility,” 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d)(1)(vi), subject to the
    “facilities” satisfying the reliability test and the “project”
    satisfying the nexus test, 
    id. § 35.35(d).5
    In the face of this unambiguous directive – 100 percent –
    FERC granted San Diego some $15 million less than 100
    percent of the costs of the project. FERC explained that it had
    a “policy that a public utility may only recover up to 50 percent
    of prudently incurred abandonment costs for costs that are
    incurred before the date of the order granting the incentives.”
    Rehearing Order, 157 FERC ¶ 61,056, at P. 10. Except that is
    not the policy FERC promulgated in its regulation. Nothing in
    the text of the Abandonment Incentive suggests that “100
    percent” means anything less than just that. And nothing in the
    Rev. 612 (1996).
    5
    The applicant must show (1) that “the facilities for which it
    seeks incentives either ensure reliability or reduce the cost of delivered
    power by reducing transmission congestion consistent with the
    requirements of section 219 [of the Federal Power Act]” and (2) that
    “the total package of incentives is tailored to address the demonstrable
    risks or challenges faced by the applicant in undertaking the project.”
    
    Id. 8 text
    of the regulation gives FERC discretion to award something
    less than the full incentive once the requirements are met.
    Indeed, in response to comments during its rulemaking, FERC
    expressly declined to revise the regulation to include “gradations
    regarding . . . the amount of incentive approved.” Order
    No. 679, 116 FERC ¶ 61,057, at P. 49. The Commission is
    bound by that choice unless and until it revises the Rule through
    additional notice-and-comment rulemaking. E.g., United States
    v. Nixon, 
    418 U.S. 683
    , 695–96 (1974); Clean Air Council v.
    Pruitt, 
    862 F.3d 1
    , 8–9 (D.C. Cir. 2017) (per curiam).
    The structure of the regulation also cuts against FERC’s
    view. An applicant may seek a determination of its eligibility
    for incentives in two ways. As San Diego did here, an applicant
    may seek a pre-abandonment declaratory order, followed by a
    post-abandonment filing for a rate adjustment under section 205
    of the Federal Power Act. 18 C.F.R. § 35.35(d). The regulation
    alternatively allows an applicant to forgo the declaratory-order
    step and instead seek eligibility and rate determinations
    simultaneously after abandonment. 
    Id. An applicant
    who opts
    for this second procedural route by making only a post-
    abandonment filing would have incurred all of its costs in
    advance of FERC’s order. Under FERC’s policy of denying
    pre-order costs, then, the Abandonment Incentive would entitle
    such an applicant to 0 rather than 100 percent of its costs.
    Even for those applicants seeking a declaratory order in
    advance of abandonment, under FERC’s policy few if any will
    obtain the elusive 100 percent of costs called for by the
    Abandonment Incentive. In order to show that its project meets
    the regulation’s substantive requirements of reliability and
    nexus, an applicant must necessarily have expended funds in
    planning and development. Those costs would pre-date the
    declaratory order and would therefore be excluded from the
    9
    Abandonment Incentive according to FERC’s decision in this
    case.
    FERC’s counsel tries to escape the consequences of the
    administrative decision here by asserting that the agency is
    merely proceeding on a “case-by-case basis.”6 The assertion is
    either meaningless or capricious, even though the majority
    opinion seems to endorse it. If all it is intended to describe is
    the process of deciding cases, we already have a word for it –
    adjudication. On the other hand, it may signify that FERC has
    discretion to treat other applicants seeking pre-order costs
    differently than it treated San Diego. But an agency’s discretion
    is not “inclination,” but its “judgment; and its judgment is to be
    guided by sound legal principles.” United States v. Burr, 25 F.
    Cas. 30, 35 (C.C.D. Va. 1807) (No. 14,692d) (Marshall, C.J.);
    see also Henry J. Friendly, Indiscretion About Discretion, 31
    Emory L.J. 747 (1982). So what are the “sound legal principles”
    for FERC to allow or disallow 100 percent recovery of pre-order
    costs? FERC provided none in its adjudication of this case and
    neither has agency counsel.7
    6
    Auer deference is especially unwarranted where, as here, the
    agency’s interpretation is adopted post hoc as a litigating position and
    conflicts with its prior reasoning. 
    Christopher, 567 U.S. at 155
    –56.
    7
    The majority’s recitation of FERC’s rule adopts the categorical
    approach. See Maj. Op. 9–10 (noting that the Abandonment Incentive
    is available for costs “only insofar as those costs were incurred after
    the effective date of the order” and identifying that date as “the
    separating point between” eligible and ineligible costs). It ignores that
    FERC repeatedly renounced that position in this appeal. See, e.g.,
    Resp’t Br. 12–13 (“But the Commission did no such thing. . . . [S]uch
    [pre-order] costs could be recovered if the applicant established the
    requisite nexus.”); 
    id. at 28
    (“The Commission Did Not Bar All
    Retroactive Recovery”); 
    id. at 30,
    37.
    10
    In short, FERC’s policy runs contrary to the text, structure,
    and purpose of the regulation. FERC’s interpretation is not
    “fairly supported by the text of the regulation itself,” and
    applicants lack “adequate notice of that interpretation . . . within
    the rule itself.” Drake v. FAA, 
    291 F.3d 59
    , 68 (D.C. Cir. 2002);
    accord Mellow Partners v. Comm’r, 
    890 F.3d 1070
    , 1079 (D.C.
    Cir. 2018).
    FERC’s policy also departs from the agency’s precedent.
    The majority’s attempt to write off FERC’s prior orders is
    contrary to the law of this circuit.
    In NextEra, for example, the utility sought to recover an
    Abandonment Incentive of 100 percent of its prudently incurred
    costs, “including costs related to the Projects that have been
    incurred prior to the date of filing.” NextEra Energy
    Transmission W., LLC, 154 FERC ¶ 61,009, at P. 13 (Jan. 8,
    2016). FERC granted that request without any limitation with
    respect to pre-order costs. 
    Id. at P.
    26. FERC so ruled without
    engaging in any so-called case-by-case analysis of whether to
    award pre-order costs. 
    Id. The majority
    opinion hypothesizes
    that FERC did not resolve the question of NextEra’s pre-order
    costs. Maj. Op. 25–26. There is no indication in FERC’s order
    to support that hypothesis: NextEra expressly sought an order
    with respect to those costs, and its request was granted without
    any relevant limitation. Still less was any explanation in
    FERC’s order in this case about why it did not take such an
    approach with respect to San Diego. In at least two cases of
    actual abandonment, FERC has gone on to grant pre-order costs
    without imposing the limitation it applied to San Diego. See S.
    Cal. Edison Co., 137 FERC ¶ 61,252, PP. 10, 24 (Dec. 30,
    2011); Pac. Gas & Elec. Co., 137 FERC ¶ 61,193, at PP. 4–5, 19
    (Dec. 12, 2011).
    11
    The majority discounts these prior orders because “no party
    filed a protest objecting on this ground, as the Six Cities did
    here” and because the issue of pre-order costs was not
    specifically discussed. Maj. Op. 25–26. Our court has rejected
    this very argument. In ANR Storage, FERC attempted to
    distinguish its prior orders from the one under review on the
    basis that the former had been unopposed and lacked a reasoned
    discussion. ANR Storage Co. v. FERC, 
    904 F.3d 1020
    , 1025
    (D.C. Cir. 2018). We held that FERC had failed to “satisfy [its]
    burden to provide some reasonable justification for treating [the
    utilities] differently.” 
    Id. FERC has
    a “statutory duty—imposed
    by the APA and owed to all other regulated parties—to provide
    some reasonable justification for any adverse treatment relative
    to similarly situated competitors.” 
    Id. FERC breached
    that
    duty here by imposing a new policy on San Diego without
    explaining its departure from prior orders.8
    8
    Gas Transmission, cited by the majority, is not to the contrary.
    See Gas Transmission Nw. Co. v. FERC, 
    504 F.3d 1318
    , 1319–20
    (D.C. Cir. 2007). In that case, we observed that FERC’s acceptance
    of unopposed tariff sheets “does not turn every provision of the tariff
    into ‘policy’ or ‘precedent.’” 
    Id. at 1320.
    That narrow statement – not
    every provision – does not license FERC to apply its own rules
    inconsistently so long as it avoids explaining its actions.