American Petroleum Institute v. EPA , 862 F.3d 50 ( 2017 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued November 3, 2016                 Decided July 7, 2017
    No. 09-1038
    AMERICAN PETROLEUM INSTITUTE,
    PETITIONER
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    AMERICAN CHEMISTRY COUNCIL, ET AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with 15-1083, 15-1085, 15-1088, 15-1089,
    15-1094
    On Petitions for Review of a Final Regulation Promulgated
    by the United States Environmental Protection Agency
    Jeremy C. Marwell and Thomas Sayre Llewellyn argued
    the causes for Industry Petitioners. With them on the briefs
    were Stacy R. Linden, Matthew A. Haynie, Aaron J. Wallisch,
    Laura E. Boorman, Kevin A. Gaynor, John P. Elwood, Roger
    R. Martella, Jr., Joel Visser, Linda E. Kelly, Quentin Riegel,
    and Leslie A. Hulse. Wayne D=Angelo, Harry M. Ng, and
    Michael R. See entered appearances.
    2
    Kenneth M. Kastner was on the brief for amici curiae
    Eastman Chemical Company and Solvay USA Inc. in support
    of Industry Petitioners.
    James S. Pew argued the cause for Environmental
    Petitioners. With him on the briefs was Khushi K. Desai.
    Daniel R. Dertke, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for respondents. With him on the brief were
    John C. Cruden, Assistant Attorney General, Douglas M.
    Bushey, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice, and Alan
    Carpien, Attorney, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.
    Donald J. Patterson, Jr. argued the cause for Industry
    Intervenor-Respondents. With him on the brief were Eric L.
    Klein, Aaron J. Wallisch, Laura E. Boorman, John L.
    Wittenborn, Wayne D=Angelo, Kevin A. Gaynor, John P.
    Elwood, Jeremy C. Marwell, Leslie A. Hulse, Linda E. Kelly,
    Quentin Riegel, Roger R. Martella, Jr., Joel Visser, James W.
    Conrad, Jr., Thomas Sayre Llewellyn, Stacy R. Linden, and
    Matthew A. Haynie. Douglas H. Green entered an appearance.
    David R. Case, James S. Pew, Khushi K. Desai, and
    Vincent Atriano were on the joint brief for respondent-
    intervenors and movant-intervenor Gulf Chemical and
    Metallurgical Corp.
    Before: TATEL and KAVANAUGH, Circuit Judges, and
    WILLIAMS, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed PER CURIAM.
    Opinion dissenting in part filed by Circuit Judge TATEL.
    3
    PER CURIAM: This case arises from the Environmental
    Protection Agency’s latest effort to define the term “solid
    waste” under the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act. In
    2015, EPA promulgated a final rule governing when certain
    hazardous materials qualify as “discarded” and hence are
    subject to the agency’s regulatory authority. Environmental
    and Industry Petitioners have each petitioned for review of that
    rule, arguing that numerous aspects of it are unlawful and
    arbitrary and capricious. For the reasons explained, we grant
    the Industry petition for review with respect to Factor 4 of the
    legitimacy test and to the Verified Recycler Exclusion and we
    dismiss the Environmental petition for review.
    I. Introduction
    The Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (“RCRA”),
    42 U.S.C. §§ 6901-6992k, empowers EPA to manage solid and
    hazardous waste. The statute defines solid waste as “garbage,
    refuse, sludge . . . and other discarded material.” 42 U.S.C.
    § 6903(27). Hazardous waste is a subset of solid waste that
    may pose a substantial threat to human health or the
    environment when improperly managed. § 6903(5)(B). If a
    material qualifies as hazardous waste, it is subject to regulation
    under RCRA Subtitle C, §§ 6921-6939g, which imposes
    comprehensive reporting and operating requirements. Material
    that is not solid waste, and therefore not hazardous waste, is
    exempt from Subtitle C.
    Pursuant to its RCRA authority, EPA has promulgated a
    rule defining solid waste as “discarded material” not otherwise
    excluded from the agency’s regulations.             40 C.F.R.
    § 261.2(a)(1). A separate regulation lists materials that fall
    outside the definition of solid waste. § 261.4. Central to the
    issues before us, EPA considers certain materials that are
    destined for recycling to be discarded and hence solid waste
    4
    subject to RCRA regulation. Definition of Solid Waste, 80 Fed.
    Reg. 1,694, 1,738/3 (Jan. 13, 2015) (the “Final Rule”).
    For our purposes, the relevant history begins in 2007,
    when EPA proposed a rule deregulating many hazardous
    secondary materials. See American Petroleum Institute v.
    EPA, 
    683 F.3d 382
    , 385 (D.C. Cir. 2012) (“API II”).
    Secondary materials are substances generated as the remainder
    of industrial processes; they include spent materials,
    byproducts, and sludges. See 40 C.F.R. § 260.10. EPA’s
    proposed rule—which became a final rule in October 2008—
    excluded hazardous secondary materials from the definition of
    solid waste in two circumstances: first, if the company that
    generated the materials controlled the recycling of those
    materials; and second, if the generator transferred the materials
    to an off-site recycler it had audited to ensure compliance with
    proper recycling practices. Revisions to the Definition of Solid
    Waste, 73 Fed. Reg. 64,668, 64,669/3-70/1-2 (Oct. 30, 2008)
    (the “2008 Rule”). These two exemptions were known,
    respectively, as the “Generator-Controlled Exclusion” and the
    “Transfer-Based Exclusion.”          
    Id. at 64,670/1,
    64,675/2
    (capitalization added). To qualify for either, secondary
    materials had to be recycled “legitimately,” a term EPA defined
    by reference to certain “legitimacy factors.” 
    Id. at 64,675/2-3.
    EPA adopted this legitimacy requirement to distinguish “true”
    recycling from “sham” recycling in which companies claim to
    reuse materials they in fact discard. 
    Id. at 64,700/2.
    Several organizations challenged the 2008 Rule. One, the
    American Petroleum Institute, argued that the rule unlawfully
    regulated materials called spent petroleum refinery catalysts,
    which are byproducts of the oil refining process. API 
    II, 683 F.3d at 387
    . Another group, the Sierra Club, asserted that the
    rule “was not sufficiently protective of human health and the
    environment,” in violation of RCRA. 
    Id. at 389.
    A third entity,
    5
    Gulf Chemical and Metallurgical Corporation (“Gulf”), moved
    to intervene to defend the rule’s treatment of spent catalysts.
    Before this court heard oral argument, EPA entered a
    settlement agreement with the Sierra Club. 
    Id. Pursuant to
    that
    agreement, the Sierra Club withdrew its petition, and EPA
    agreed to propose a new solid waste rule. 
    Id. As promised,
    EPA published a notice of proposed rulemaking in July 2011.
    Definition of Solid Waste, 76 Fed. Reg. 44,094 (July 22, 2011)
    (the “Proposed Rule”). A year later, we held that API’s
    challenge to the 2008 rule was unripe given the forthcoming
    final rule. API 
    II, 683 F.3d at 384
    . We deferred any action on
    Gulf’s motion to intervene, which is dealt with in a separate
    order published today.
    EPA promulgated the Final Rule on solid waste—the one
    before us now—in January 2015. 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,694/1. The
    2015 Final Rule differs from the 2008 Rule in several ways,
    four of which are relevant here. First, the Final Rule revises
    the definition of “legitimate” recycling and expands the scope
    of the legitimacy factors to cover all recycling. 
    Id. at 1,719/3-
    20/1. Second, it establishes that spent catalysts—which were
    ineligible for exclusions under the 2008 Rule—could qualify
    for the exemptions in the 2015 regulation. 
    Id. at 1,738/1.
    Third, the rule defers a decision on whether to add conditions
    to 32 previously promulgated exclusions from the definition of
    solid waste, which EPA calls the “pre-2008” exclusions. 
    Id. at 1,741/2.
    Fourth and finally, the rule replaces the transfer-based
    exclusion with the “Verified Recycler Exclusion,” a new
    standard governing when transferred materials qualify as solid
    waste. 
    Id. at 1,695/2.
    We provide additional detail on each of
    these provisions later in this opinion.
    Multiple organizations petitioned for review of the 2015
    rule. Their petitions, which are consolidated in this case,
    6
    challenge the regulation on multiple fronts.            Industry
    Petitioners argue that both the legitimacy test and the Verified
    Recycler Exclusion exceed EPA’s RCRA authority. Industry
    Petitioners also challenge EPA’s treatment of two specific
    materials: spent catalysts and off-specification commercial
    chemical products. Environmental Petitioners argue that the
    Verified Recycler Exclusion is too permissive and that EPA
    should have added containment and notification conditions to
    the 32 pre-2008 exclusions. We consider these challenges in
    turn.
    II. Legitimacy Factors
    Industry Petitioners first attack EPA’s new legitimacy test.
    Before EPA can regulate a hazardous secondary material as
    hazardous waste, it must determine that the material has been
    “discarded” under 42 U.S.C. § 6903(27). Items recycled
    through “immediate reuse in” an “industry’s ongoing
    production process,” are not discarded within the meaning of
    that section and are outside EPA’s hazardous waste
    regulations. See American Mining Congress v. EPA, 
    824 F.2d 1177
    , 1183-85 (D.C. Cir. 1987) (“AMC”); see also Ass’n of
    Battery Recyclers, Inc. v. EPA, 
    208 F.3d 1047
    , 1052-53 (D.C.
    Cir. 2000) (explaining that “immediate” in AMC means
    “direct,” not instantaneous). But because EPA’s waste disposal
    regulations are acknowledged to be very costly to meet, “there
    is an incentive for some handlers to claim they are recycling
    when, in fact, they are conducting . . . disposal.” Final Rule,
    80 Fed. Reg. at 1,719/3. To prevent such evasion, EPA polices
    the line “between ‘legitimate’ (i.e., true) recycling and ‘sham’
    (i.e., fake) recycling.” 
    Id. at 1,720/1.
    Until recently, EPA’s policy on sham recycling existed
    chiefly in uncodified guidance, notably a memo issued in 1989
    by Sylvia K. Lowrance, Director, EPA Office of Solid Waste
    (Apr. 26, 1989) (the “Lowrance Memo”). The memo discussed
    7
    over a dozen factors for evaluating recycling, all aimed at
    determining “whether the secondary material is ‘commodity-
    like,’” i.e., is it being handled like a valuable industrial input or
    like a worthless industrial byproduct. See 
    id. at 2
    &
    attachment.
    The Final Rule updates and codifies this effort to draw the
    distinction between legitimate and sham recycling. It requires
    that all recycling of hazardous secondary materials meet a
    legitimacy test set forth in 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a) or else be
    labeled “sham” and subjected to full RCRA regulation. 40
    C.F.R. § 261.2(g). Like the Lowrance Memo, the rule is rooted
    in the assumption that legitimate recycling should involve
    some “recognizable benefit,” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,722/1, independent of merely “avoid[ing] the requirements
    of” RCRA regulation, 
    id. at 1,719/3.
    To satisfy the legitimacy test for recycling of a particular
    material, firms must prevail on all of four factors,
    § 260.43(a)(1)-(4), which are in addition to whatever elements
    a specific exclusion might require, see Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg.
    at 1,720/2. First, the hazardous secondary material must
    “provide[] a useful contribution to the recycling process.”
    § 260.43(a)(1). Second, “[t]he recycling process must produce
    a valuable product or intermediate.” § 260.43(a)(2). Third, the
    persons controlling the secondary material must “manage the
    hazardous secondary material as a valuable commodity.”
    § 260.43(a)(3). Fourth, “[t]he product of the recycling process
    must be comparable to a legitimate product or intermediate.”
    § 260.43(a)(4). Factors 1 and 3 address the process, Factors 2
    and 4 the product.
    Industry Petitioners do not attack EPA’s authority to
    formulate and apply a legitimacy test, nor do they fault EPA’s
    premise that legitimate recycling involves “valuable” materials
    8
    being used for a “recognizable benefit.” Final Rule, 80 Fed.
    Reg. at 1,697/3, 1,722/1. At that level of generality, EPA’s
    policy seems to be a reasonable method for identifying
    materials that are “part of the waste disposal problem” and thus
    subject to EPA’s RCRA authority over discarded materials.
    Safe Food & Fertilizer v. EPA, 
    350 F.3d 1263
    , 1268 (D.C. Cir.
    2003). Industry Petitioners instead attack EPA’s planned
    means to implement that policy. They complain that
    mandating Factors 3 and 4 across all recycling results in EPA’s
    “unlawfully regulat[ing] non-discarded materials.” Industry
    Pet’rs’ Br. 16 (capitalization omitted).
    A. Factor 3
    We begin with Factor 3, which requires secondary
    materials to be handled as “valuable commodit[ies].” 40
    C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(3). Where there is an analogous raw
    material, the firm can meet this standard by handling the
    secondary material “in an equally protective manner.” 
    Id. If there
    is no raw analogue for comparison, EPA requires that the
    secondary material be “contained.” 
    Id. “Contained” means
    “held in a unit (including a land-based unit . . .) that meets”
    multiple enumerated criteria, including that the unit be “labeled
    or otherwise ha[ve] a system (such as a log) to immediately
    identify the hazardous secondary materials” therein. 40 C.F.R.
    § 260.10 (entry for “Contained”). “[L]and-based unit[s],” 
    id., encompass, at
    least for some materials such as scrap metal,
    simply lying on the ground, see Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,721/3, 1,736/2.
    EPA previously claimed that any “interdiction in time”
    during a secondary material’s trajectory from initial output to
    recycling, e.g., for storage, could be considered discard and
    thus trip the material into EPA’s RCRA authority. Battery
    
    Recyclers, 208 F.3d at 1052
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    We rejected that rule. “To say that when something is saved it
    9
    is thrown away is an extraordinary distortion of the English
    language.” 
    Id. at 1053.
    Industry Petitioners read that holding
    to bar EPA from ever regulating how recycled materials are
    contained. Their reading goes too far. EPA can impose a
    containment requirement so long as it is such that an inference
    of “sham” or illegitimacy would logically flow from a firm’s
    non-compliance. And given EPA’s explanation that a material
    may be “contained” if it is simply piled on the ground, Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,721/3, 1,736/2, and meets specific
    requirements that petitioners do not challenge as unreasonable
    (with one exception, the “labelling” requirement discussed
    below), the standard does not on its face appear to ask for
    anything beyond what could be expected of firms engaged in
    legitimate recycling.
    Industry Petitioners express concern about having to label
    or log unwieldy molten metals and acidic sludges to satisfy
    EPA’s insistence on material being “contained.” But EPA
    offers an alternative to labelling in the conventional sense—
    provision of “a system (such as a log) to immediately identify
    the hazardous secondary materials in the unit.” § 260.10.
    Thus, in substance, the requirement is not precisely one of
    labeling or logging, but only of assuring that it somehow be
    possible for the material to be “immediately identif[iable].” 
    Id. While doubtless
    EPA’s language could be interpreted
    unreasonably, we cannot see that the requirement itself is
    unreasonable.
    B. Factor 4
    Factor 4 presents more difficulty. EPA explains this factor
    as an effort to prevent recyclers from loading products with
    hazardous secondary materials that “provide[] no recognizable
    benefit to the product,” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,722/1, and
    are simply “along for the ride,” 
    id. at 1,726/2.
    Although EPA
    does not require a material’s “hazardous component[s]”
    10
    themselves to provide a “useful contribution” to the product,
    see 
    id. at 1,723/3
    (discussing Factor 1), the agency is concerned
    that a purported recycler might “incorporate[] hazardous
    constituents into the final product when they were not needed
    to make that product effective as a way to avoid proper disposal
    of that material, which would be sham recycling,” 
    id. at 1,726/1-2.
    The factor sets up two tracks, 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(i)-
    (ii), one covering products for which there is an analogue of
    undoubted legitimacy, the other addressing products with no
    such analogue. EPA refers to these together as the “technical
    provisions.” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/1. But as EPA
    recognizes that the criteria set forth under these two tracks
    don’t draw a satisfactory line between genuine and sham, it
    also offers a rather complicated exception—aimed at
    preventing products from being labelled a sham when they in
    fact pose no “significant human health or environmental risk.”
    § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). But Factor 4’s complex provisions fall
    short of the aim. As we shall see, Factor 4 imposes tasks
    tangential to disposal vel non (and thus tangential to EPA’s
    authority), even when EPA has offered little reason to doubt a
    product’s legitimacy.
    The second track is the more reasonable of the two. When
    there is no analogue, the recycled product will pass if it was
    created by looping secondary materials back “to the original
    process . . . from which they were generated” or if it meets
    “widely recognized commodity standards and specifications.”
    § 260.43(a)(4)(ii)(A)-(B). Those standards or specifications
    need not address the hazardous aspects of the product. Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,728/2-3. And EPA has explained that
    compliance with “customer specifications” may suffice for
    “specialty” products. 
    Id. at 1,728/1.
    Although that gloss on
    “specifications” appears only in EPA’s discussion of the with-
    11
    analogue track, the Final Rule offers little indication that the
    same word in the no-analogue track is meant to read differently
    on this matter. Compare 
    id. at 1,727/3-28/1
    (with-analogue),
    with 
    id. at 1,728/2-3
    (no-analogue). Putting all this together, if
    a recycled product, lacking an analogue, fails to satisfy
    customer specifications, falls short of relevant commodity
    standards, and is not derived from a closed-loop type process,
    EPA treats it as discarded (subject to the ultimate exception).
    These tests focus largely on the utility of the recycling in
    question, a reasonable inquiry when deciding legitimacy. See
    
    id. at 1,728/3
    (commodity standards and specifications criteria
    mean that “market forces [will] dictate” legitimacy); 
    id. at 1,729/1
    (“looping” criterion appropriate because this type of
    recycling “conserves the use of raw materials” without adding
    new hazards).
    The other track in Factor 4’s technical provisions,
    applying where the recycled product has an analogue, is more
    explicitly tuned to the “along for the ride” metaphor. It requires
    that the recycled product exhibit no hazardous “characteristic”
    that is absent from the product’s analogue. 40 C.F.R.
    § 260.43(a)(4)(i)(A); see also Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,727/1 (“The characteristics are ignitability, corrosivity,
    reactivity, and toxicity.”). This criterion—fenced in as it is by
    the definitions of those characteristics, see 40 C.F.R.
    §§ 261.21-.24—also seems reasonable: one would expect
    analogous products to have similar attributes. But the track
    goes on from there. Even if the recycled product and its
    analogue share the same hazardous characteristics, the amount
    or “levels” of hazardous constituents in the product must be
    “comparable to or lower than” its analogue’s.
    § 260.43(a)(4)(i)(B). If the product fails that test, it can still be
    legitimate if it “meet[s] widely-recognized commodity
    standards and specifications.” 
    Id. Unlike in
    the no-analogue
    track, here the commodity standards and specifications must
    12
    “specifically address [] hazardous constituents.” 
    Id. Otherwise EPA
    will regard the product as discarded (subject to the
    ultimate exception).
    We have left EPA some leeway in applying the idea that
    genuine recyclers cannot include hazardous material just
    “along for the ride” in their products. Thus in American
    Petroleum Institute v. EPA, 
    216 F.3d 50
    (D.C. Cir. 2000) (“API
    I”), we rejected a challenge under “Chevron step one” to a rule
    that treated “recovered oil” as discarded if it included “extra
    materials . . . that provide no benefit to the industrial process.”
    
    Id. at 58-59
    (emphasis added). But we hinted that such a rule
    should reasonably avoid “incidentally regulat[ing] oil
    containing chemicals [whose presence in the recycled oil was]
    not caused by sham recycling (and therefore not discarded).”
    See 
    id. at 59.
    Judged by that perhaps opaque standard, EPA’s “along for
    the ride” metaphor suffers at least one of the usual dangers of
    metaphors—imprecision. The record contains examples of
    hazardous secondary materials that are beneficially recycled
    into valuable products (recognized as such by EPA), even
    though those products contain hazardous constituents that do
    not, in themselves, contribute to the value of the final product.
    See, e.g., Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,721/1-2 (zinc-
    containing secondary materials), 1,729/3 (lead-containing
    secondary materials). In those cases, even if EPA could
    technically say that some small excess of hazardous
    constituents has been left in the final product, the mere fact of
    their presence would not constitute a reasonable basis for
    dubbing the product or the process a sham. After all, it can be
    costly to extract tiny amounts of hazardous constituents—
    potentially on the order of “parts per million,” see 
    id. at 1,727/2-3—from
    secondary materials destined for recycling,
    and no statute has given EPA authority to compel firms to
    13
    engage in such extraction where failing to do so imposes no
    health or environmental risk. To rule otherwise would be to
    disregard the statute’s stated “objective[]” of “encouraging . . .
    properly conducted recycling.” 42 U.S.C. § 6902(a)(6).
    EPA made this very point in Safe Food to defend its
    exclusion for recycled zinc fertilizers even though those
    fertilizers could have “considerably higher” contaminant levels
    than the corresponding “virgin commercial 
    fertilizer.” 350 F.3d at 1269
    . After reviewing EPA’s data on the threat posed
    by the additional contaminants, we agreed that the excesses of
    the contaminant levels that EPA allowed (as consistent with
    legitimate recycling) over those in virgin fertilizer samples
    “lose their significance when put in proper perspective—
    namely, a perspective based on health and environmental
    risks.” 
    Id. at 1270.
    No such perspective is allowed by the “comparable to or
    lower than” standard for products with analogues. That
    standard sets the bar at the contaminant level of the analogue
    without regard to whether any incremental contaminants are
    significant in terms of health and environmental risks. This
    problem is reduced, but not eliminated, by firms’ option to
    meet “widely-recognized commodity standards and
    specifications,” 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(i)(B)—including
    “customer specifications” if the product is made-to-order,
    Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,728/1. Many products might fail
    this alternative, not because they represent sham recycling, but
    because the relevant commodity standards or specifications
    don’t address the hazardous constituent levels of concern to
    EPA. Industry Petitioners contend, and EPA does not
    contradict, that such standards usually refer to minimum levels
    of desired elements rather than maximum levels of specific
    impurities. Doubtless this track will ensnare some sham
    recycling, but it does so with a test that is not a “reasonable tool
    14
    for distinguishing products from wastes.” See Safe 
    Food, 350 F.3d at 1269
    .
    EPA, having recognized some of the shortcomings in
    these provisions, created an exception purporting to account for
    them. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/1. A recycler may
    avoid the sham label if it “prepare[s] documentation showing
    why the recycling is, in fact, still legitimate” and notifies
    regulators. 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). The legitimacy “can
    be shown” by “lack of exposure from toxics in the product, lack
    of the bioavailability of toxins in the product, or other relevant
    considerations which show that the recycled product does not
    contain levels of hazardous constituents that pose a significant
    human health or environmental risk.” 
    Id. In explaining
    this exception, EPA has indicated that the
    question is whether the recycled product will be used
    beneficially in a manner that reasonably protects against the
    risks its residual hazardous constituents present. See Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/1-3.               Absence of these
    circumstances would indicate that the true purpose of the
    recycling is disposal. Hence, EPA explained in the rulemaking
    that “lead contaminated foundry sand[]” would be sham
    recycled when packaged as “children’s play sand” but that the
    same material can be legitimately recycled for “mold making
    in a facility’s sand loop.” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/2-
    3. The sand is (in a sense) equally hazardous in both cases, but
    the latter use is legitimate “because . . . there is little chance of
    the hazardous constituents being released into the environment
    or causing damage to human health”; “there is lead throughout
    the foundry’s process” (i.e., the sand isn’t introducing new
    hazards); and “there is a clear value to reusing the sand” in that
    industry. 
    Id. at 1,729/3.
    Recyclers can also meet this exception
    by analyzing the “increased risk” of their product relative to its
    analogues, if any. 
    Id. We read
    this as saying, in light of EPA’s
    15
    brief, that a recycler can show its product is legitimate by
    documenting that any incremental risk it presents is not
    “significant” to health and the environment. See Respondent
    Br. 42-43 (citing Safe 
    Food, 350 F.3d at 1269
    -71).
    Contrary to Industry Petitioners’ claims, the general
    criteria embodied in the Factor 4 exception seem permissible,
    indeed consistent with our ruling in Safe Food. Industry
    Petitioners also argue that the exception affords EPA unlimited
    discretion to find discard. The language of Factor 4 and its
    exception is rather open-ended, so judicial review of EPA’s
    subsequent interpretations would normally be highly
    deferential, Auer v. Robbins, 
    519 U.S. 452
    , 461-62 (1997),
    potentially leaving petitioners at the mercy of a different
    reading in the future. But we note that Factor 4’s exception is
    tuned specifically to “significant human health or
    environmental risk[s].” 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). And
    EPA has simultaneously provided an explanation of how to
    apply the exception along with an example of how a specific
    material might pass or fail it. Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,729/2-3 (foundry sand). These aspects of the rulemaking
    sufficiently constrict the range of possible interpretations: “[a]n
    interpretation at odds with the agency’s expressed intent at the
    time of adoption enjoys no judicial deference.” AT&T Corp. v.
    FCC, 
    841 F.3d 1047
    , 1054 (D.C. Cir. 2016).
    The exception nonetheless falls short of saving the rule,
    due to the draconian character of the procedures it imposes on
    recyclers. See Industry Pet’rs’ Br. 29, 33. To qualify for the
    exception just described, a firm must contemporaneously
    document how its recycling is “still legitimate,” notify
    regulators of that finding, and keep the documents “on-site for
    three years after the recycling operation has ceased.” 40 C.F.R.
    § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). Failing any of these steps will make a sham
    16
    out of what would otherwise have been a legitimate product.
    See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,721/1, 1,735/3-36/1.
    EPA is correct that these notice and recordkeeping
    mandates will create useful “oversight” and may be correct that
    they constitute only a “minimal burden” on recyclers. 
    Id. at 1,730/1,
    1,732/1. But paperwork is not alchemy; a legitimate
    product will not morph into waste if its producer fails to file a
    form (or loses a copy two years later). EPA insists that it can
    impose burden-shifting rules even in drawing the line between
    what it may and may not regulate. Respondent’s Br. 58. True
    enough; but the generality is applicable only if the products
    subjected to the burden-shifting are such that it would normally
    be reasonable to expect them to qualify as “discarded” in the
    absence of affirmative evidence from the recycler. Thus in
    American Chemistry Council v. EPA, 
    337 F.3d 1060
    (D.C. Cir.
    2003), we affirmed EPA’s decision to put the burden on
    regulated entities to initiate a “delisting” process preemptively
    to establish that a given “mixture or derivative” of hazardous
    waste is not itself hazardous. 
    Id. at 1065.
    Waste handlers
    would evidently have to undertake this process, concededly
    “cumbersome,” in advance of any EPA enforcement. 
    Id. But there
    EPA had found that “many mixtures of and derivatives
    from hazardous wastes are themselves hazardous,” an
    inference that those materials’ origin in hazardous waste
    renders highly plausible. 
    Id. Further, the
    rule included
    exceptions to “prevent [EPA] from casting too wide a net over”
    materials outside its jurisdiction. 
    Id. Compare Dissent
    at 8.
    The same might be said of the no-analogue track and the
    hazardous characteristic criterion. But we cannot say the same
    for the with-analogue track’s “comparable to or lower than”
    test, even as qualified by the exception for products meeting
    commodity standards or specifications.
    17
    Never in the rulemaking does EPA make out why a
    product that fails those criteria is likely to be discarded in any
    legitimate sense of the term. See Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Ass’n v.
    State Farm Mut. Auto. Ins. Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    , 42 (1983) (agency
    rules must be “justified by the rulemaking record”).
    Environmental Intervenors argue that the necessary
    backing for Factor 4 lies in EPA’s report, An Assessment of
    Environmental Problems Associated with Recycling of
    Hazardous Secondary Materials (Dec. 10, 2014) (the
    “Problems Study”). See Respondent-Intv’rs’ Joint Br. 13-14,
    16. By its own account, the report was “not exhaustive”; it
    restricted itself to 250 “easy to find” instances of
    environmental damage associated with recycling. Problems
    Study at 4 (identifying sources of “potentially relevant” data
    that the study did not exhaust). Compare Dissent at 11. The
    study seems to support a proposition, surely indisputable, that
    recycling can go awry. Further, the authors claim to have
    identified various causal factors, characterized rather vaguely
    and clearly overlapping, such as “Improper Disposal of
    Residuals,” “Abandoned Materials,” and “Improper
    Management of Hazardous Secondary Materials.” Problems
    Study at 6-8. But none of these bears any obvious relation to
    the “comparable to or lower than” standard of the with-
    analogue track. Reading the report liberally, we see around a
    dozen instances (out of the 250) involving recycled products
    that possibly would have flunked the technical provisions. See
    
    id. app’x 1
    at 22-23; 26-27; 45-47; 114-15, 121-22; 128-30,
    247-48, 258-59, 298-300, 304, 319-320, 339-40, 404-05, 443-
    44. And some of these products could have already been
    considered hazardous waste for failing other legitimacy criteria
    or for being “placed on the land in a manner that constitutes
    disposal,” 40 C.FR. § 261.2(c)(1)(A). See, e.g., Problems
    Study app’x 1 at 299 (recycler allegedly “planned to sell []
    contaminated ash as fill material to the public”).
    18
    Thus the study in no way purports to establish that there is
    any particular probability, much less a reasonable probability,
    that the recycled products exceeding the “comparable to or
    lower than” standard will cause damage to health or the
    environment. But the quality or relevance of the study makes
    no difference in this context, as EPA did not rely on it to justify
    its assumption that materials which fail the technical provisions
    are “discarded.” The study appears to enter EPA’s Factor 4
    discussion only implicitly via the foundry sand example, and
    the most EPA inferred from that was that certain recycled
    products “may or may not be legitimate, depending on the use.”
    Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/2-3. That conclusion doesn’t
    take us beyond EPA’s bare assertion that “high levels of
    hazardous constituents . . . could indicate” discard. 
    Id. at 1,726/1.
    In API I, we were satisfied by EPA’s mere “concern[]” that
    some test samples had “unexpected” levels of contaminants
    (EPA had no evidence that those results were due to
    
    adulteration). 216 F.3d at 58
    . We stressed, though, that “a
    refiner in a specific case” could show that the product was not
    adulterated and not discarded. 
    Id. at 59.
    Thus, the rule
    involved at most a rebuttable presumption, which we have said
    can “be sustained without an evidentiary showing . . . so long
    as the agency articulates a rational basis.” Sec. of Labor v.
    Keystone Coal Mining Corp., 
    151 F.3d 1096
    , 1101 (D.C. Cir.
    1998). But our cases show that here a “rational basis,” 
    id., means a
    reason, grounded in common sense or logic, to
    suppose the inference “so probable that it is sensible and
    timesaving to assume [its] truth . . . until the adversary
    disproves it,” Nat’l Mining Ass’n v. Babbitt, 
    172 F.3d 906
    , 912
    (D.C. Cir. 1999) (quoting 
    Keystone, 151 F.3d at 1100-01
    )
    (rejecting presumption for which the agency had “not offered
    any support, scientific or otherwise”).
    19
    EPA has not offered a sufficient “rational basis.” Because
    a recycler “in a specific case” won’t be able to recover from
    failing to file paperwork and failing the technical provisions,
    see API 
    I, 216 F.3d at 59
    , EPA must offer more than timorous
    assertions such as “could indicate” and “may or may not be
    legitimate,” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,726/1, 1,729/2-3.
    The dissent sees nothing wrong with EPA’s exception
    procedure. But our colleague’s view is significantly colored by
    an assumption, not made by EPA, that the “comparable to or
    lower than” standard is inherently reasonable and may not even
    require an exception. Compare Dissent at 3-4, 9, with Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,729/1. The dissent argues that the
    standard is reasonably limited to situations where constituent
    levels are “significantly” higher or exceed a “small acceptable
    range.” Dissent at 5 (citing Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,727/2). But significant as to what? Acceptable against what
    measure? The rulemaking gives no answer, certainly none
    linking directly to the “significant human health or
    environmental risk” criterion used in the exception.
    § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). Similarly absent is any reference to utility
    or market acceptance as embodied in the “commodity
    standards” clauses of subparagraphs (i) and (ii). If either of
    those perspectives governed the “comparable to or lower than”
    standard, why would EPA devote separate provisions to them?
    Not even EPA argues that the “comparable to or lower than”
    standard is reasonably limited to any such circumstances; we
    will not adopt a tortured interpretation to infer that it is. See
    generally Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,727/2-3 (explaining
    standard via examples of “zinc galvanizing metal” and
    “solvent”). Because the “comparable to or lower than”
    standard (and, by extension, the with-analogue track) is not
    reasonably focused on items that are “part of the waste disposal
    problem,” Safe 
    Food, 350 F.3d at 1268
    , the exception process
    must be adequate to offset that fault. It is not.
    20
    For these reasons Factor 4 is unreasonable as a
    requirement applied, through 40 C.F.R. § 261.2(g), to all
    hazardous secondary material recycling. (EPA has also written
    the legitimacy factors into specific exclusions. See, e.g., 40
    C.F.R. § 261.4(a)(23)(ii)(E). Petitioners do not challenge
    Factor 4 as applied to those individual exclusions.)
    C. Used Oil Recycling
    Industry Petitioners also ask us to invalidate EPA’s
    legitimacy factors as applied to used oil recycling. This request
    misreads EPA’s rules, which exempt used oil from the
    legitimacy factors along with all the other “requirements of [40
    C.F.R.] parts 260 through 268.” 40 C.F.R. § 261.6(a)(4).
    III. Verified Recycler Exclusion
    The Final Rule also amended EPA’s stance on
    “reclamation,” a type of recycling that occurs when secondary
    materials are “processed to recover a usable product, or . . .
    regenerated.” 40 C.F.R. § 261.1(c)(4), (7). A dead battery is
    reclaimed, for example, by extracting the still-valuable lead
    from it. § 261.1(c)(4). The other modes of recycling are
    “use[]” and “reuse[],” which occur when “[a] material is . . .
    [e]mployed as an ingredient . . . in an industrial process to make
    a product” or “[e]mployed . . . as an effective substitute for a
    commercial product.” § 261.1(c)(5), (7). In the 1980s, EPA
    adopted a rule manifesting its belief that certain hazardous
    secondary materials are so “waste-like” that reclaiming them is
    equivalent to discard. Hazardous Waste Mgmt. Sys., 50 Fed.
    Reg. 614, 619/1 (Jan. 4, 1985). The materials so classified are
    spent materials, listed sludges, listed byproducts, and scrap
    metal—although EPA has a specific exception for the latter.
    See 40 C.F.R. § 261.2(c)(3) & tbl.1. “Listed” means
    catalogued by EPA as hazardous in § 261.31 or § 261.32. See
    Hazardous Waste Mgmt. Sys., 50 Fed. Reg. at 619/1. Because
    21
    processing something is hardly akin to throwing it away, we
    held that this reclamation rule improperly regulated materials
    that were “neither disposed of nor abandoned, but [were]
    passing in a continuous stream or flow from one production
    process to another.” 
    AMC, 824 F.2d at 1190
    , 1193.
    EPA nonetheless kept the reclamation-equals-discard rule,
    apparently on the reasoning that AMC merely “granted the
    petition for review” without ordering vacatur. See Revisions to
    the Definition of Solid Waste, 72 Fed. Reg. 14,172, 14,176/3-
    77/1 (Mar. 26, 2007). Instead EPA sought to “implement the
    AMC I opinion” by adding exclusions for specific materials or
    processes. See, e.g., Identification and Listing of Hazardous
    Waste, 59 Fed. Reg. 38,536, 38,537/1 (July 28, 1994) (adding
    exclusion for petroleum-refining secondary materials),
    codified as amended at 40 C.F.R. § 261.4(a)(12). Materials-
    specific and process-specific exclusions form a large part of the
    pre-2008 exclusions discussed in the introduction to this
    opinion. See Proposed Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 44,139/1-3
    (listing pre-2008 exclusions). Further, EPA adopted two
    general exclusions, which unlike almost all of the pre-2008
    exclusions, depend on whether the recycling is performed by a
    third-party. The first general exclusion, the Generator-
    Controlled Exclusion, governs reclamation “under the control
    of the generator,” § 261.4(a)(23), and is not challenged here.
    The other addresses reclamation of materials transferred to and
    reclaimed by a third-party, and has come in two successive
    editions. EPA adopted the first edition, the Transfer-Based
    Exclusion, as part of its 2008 Rule, 73 Fed. Reg. at 64,669/3-
    70/1, previously codified at 40 C.F.R. § 261.4(a)(24)-(25)
    (2014), and replaced it with the current edition, the Verified
    Recycler Exclusion, in the Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,706/3,
    codified at § 261.4(a)(24).
    22
    Under the Transfer-Based Exclusion, the party offloading
    the materials (the “generator”) could send them to a reclaimer
    that possessed a RCRA permit (or interim status). 40 C.F.R.
    § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(B) (2014). Alternatively, the generator
    could send materials to a reclaimer that lacked such a permit or
    status, if the generator had made “reasonable efforts to ensure
    that [the chosen] reclaimer intends to properly and legitimately
    reclaim the hazardous secondary material and not discard it.”
    
    Id. The “reasonable
    efforts” involved investigating and
    “affirmatively answer[ing]” specific questions that the
    regulation posed about the reclaimer. 
    Id. The Verified
    Recycler Exclusion is quite similar to its
    predecessor but makes two changes that Industry Petitioners
    challenge. First, the new exclusion requires the generator to
    meet special “emergency preparedness” standards in its
    custody of the materials before shipment. See 40 C.F.R.
    § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(E) (referring to standards at § 261.400 et
    seq.).    For example, the generator’s facility must be
    “maintained and operated to minimize the possibility of a fire,
    explosion, or any unplanned . . . release of hazardous secondary
    materials” that “could threaten human health or the
    environment.” § 261.410(a). And the generator must (with
    some exceptions) have certain emergency preparedness
    processes and equipment in place, such as communications and
    “fire control” systems. See § 261.410(b)-(f).
    Second, the Verified Recycler Exclusion eliminates the
    “reasonable efforts” option afforded by the Transfer-Based
    Exclusion and requires that generators send their secondary
    materials to reclaimers who either have a RCRA permit (or
    interim status), as in the Transfer-Based Exclusion, or a RCRA
    variance—in effect an EPA (or state-level) approval of a firm
    to operate a third-party “reclamation facility.” See 40 C.F.R.
    § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(B); § 260.31(d) (quoted language); see also
    23
    § 271.3 (authorizing states to implement RCRA if they meet
    certain conditions); Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,695/2
    (describing the new rule); 
    id. at 1,715/1,
    1,768/2-3 (describing
    role of “authorized state[s]”).
    The separate Generator-Controlled Exclusion carries the
    same        emergency          preparedness         requirements,
    § 261.4(a)(23)(ii)(F), but it significantly does not mandate a
    permit, interim status, or variance. It instead asks generators to
    maintain a “written description of how the recycling meets all
    four [legitimacy] factors.” § 261.4(a)(23)(ii)(E).
    Industry Petitioners insist that EPA had no reason, in its
    2015 shift to a Verified Recycler Exclusion, to tighten the
    conditions of its predecessor. Though EPA disagrees, it
    concedes that “withdrawing the transfer-based exclusion”
    entirely “would result in hazardous secondary material that is
    currently being legitimately recycled and not discarded being
    regulated as hazardous waste,” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,708/3, in effect, regulation in excess of EPA’s authority as
    defined in AMC. In this perhaps topsy-turvy universe, all spent
    materials, listed byproducts, and listed sludges being reclaimed
    are subject to full RCRA control unless affirmatively excluded.
    Because EPA chose to retain a rule that improperly treats as
    discarded materials that are “no longer useful in their original
    capacity though destined for immediate reuse,” 
    AMC, 824 F.2d at 1185
    , it has obliged itself to creating sufficient exceptions to
    counter that rule’s overbreadth.
    Given the parties’ agreement that some general exclusion
    for third-party reclamation is necessary, the question before us
    is whether EPA acted reasonably in adding emergency
    preparedness requirements and in supplanting the reasonable
    efforts option with the variance procedure. Specifically, EPA
    must show that “the new policy is permissible under the statute,
    24
    that there are good reasons for it, and that the agency believes it
    to be better” than the old one. FCC v. Fox Television Stations,
    Inc., 
    556 U.S. 502
    , 515 (2009).
    Although no party challenged the Industry Petitioners’
    standing on this issue, we noted EPA’s assertion in the record
    that in the almost seven years under the Transfer-Based
    Exclusion no entity had taken advantage of the reasonable
    efforts option. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,708/1-2,
    1,709/1. If in the real world the option drew no takers for seven
    years, could its removal really inflict an injury? Wondering if
    petitioners’ claim of injury was truly plausible, as required by
    our cases, see, e.g., Food & Water Watch, Inc. v. Vilsack, 
    808 F.3d 905
    , 913 (D.C. Cir. 2015), we ordered briefing on the
    issue.
    In their supplemental brief, Industry Petitioners supplied
    the explanation: not long after the Transfer-Based Exclusion
    was promulgated, “EPA announced that it was seriously
    considering repeal,” which “placed the [] exclusion under a
    cloud of uncertainty.”       Industry Pet’rs’ Supp. Br. 2.
    Unpermitted entities chose to wait and see if the reports of the
    rule’s imminent demise were true. See 
    id. Accordingly, there
    is no apparent reason to doubt that, as Industry Petitioners
    insist, EPA’s retention of the reasonable efforts option would
    have led some entities to make use of it.
    As to Fox’s required justifications for a change in policy,
    EPA is quite clear which rule, 2008 or 2015, it “believes [] to
    be 
    better.” 556 U.S. at 515
    . EPA bemoaned that the Transfer-
    Based Exclusion allowed third-party reclaimers to operate
    without as much oversight as Subtitle C regulation would
    require. Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,707/3. This lack of
    oversight, EPA believes, “could lead to the potential for an
    increased likelihood of environmental” damage, thus justifying
    25
    the Final Rule’s changes. 
    Id. at 1,708/1;
    see 
    id. at 1,711/2
    (describing 2008 Rule’s “major regulatory gap” from “lack of
    oversight and public participation”).
    For the remainder of the Fox analysis we address the two
    challenged provisions separately.
    A. Emergency Preparedness Requirements
    First up are the emergency preparedness requirements and
    whether their promulgation meets the requirements of showing
    consistency with the statute and good reasons for the new rule.
    
    Fox, 556 U.S. at 515
    . For reasons to qualify as “good” under
    Fox, they must be “justified by the rulemaking record.” State
    
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 42
    . Here EPA’s reasons for its changes
    overlap with its statutory justification—to “identif[y]
    hazardous secondary materials that are legitimately recycled
    and not discarded,” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,709/2—so we
    analyze the two together.
    With the emergency preparedness provisions, EPA’s
    reasoning is mostly a retread of what we encountered with
    Factor 3. As with the handling requirements, it advances the
    mandated precautions as an effort to reduce the risk of discard
    and to test the generator’s intent to recycle. See 
    id. at 1,710/2.
    Here, to be sure, these prophylactic duties go beyond Factor 3’s
    in specificity. Compare 40 C.F.R. § 261.410 (emergency),
    with § 260.10 (containment). And the inference of “discard”
    from feckless preparations is less obvious than such an
    inference from lack of containment (as defined by EPA).
    But EPA made findings (unchallenged here) that fires and
    explosions are a common cause of environmental damage and
    that planning against such mischance reflects a generator’s
    intent to reduce losses of hazardous secondary materials—
    materials that a firm intending genuine reclamation would
    26
    presumably regard as valuable. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg.
    at 1,710/2; Problems Study at 7. EPA also found that the
    secondary materials to be recycled under the Verified Recycler
    Exclusion (i.e., those materials that are transferred to third
    parties and that don’t qualify for other exclusions) are “often”
    of negative value to generators, which “typically pay” the
    reclaimer to take the materials or receive a payment inadequate
    to cover the costs of transfer. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,707/2; see also A Study of Potential Effects of Market Forces
    on the Management of Hazardous Secondary Materials
    Intended for Recycling 3 (Nov. 21, 2006) (the “Market Study”)
    (noting that commercial recyclers accept materials “usually for
    a fee”). Because generators are likely to view these materials
    more as albatross than asset, it is reasonable for EPA to require
    additional assurances, beyond those of Factor 3, that the
    generator values them as elements of a genuine recycling
    effort.
    Petitioners do not claim that the preparation requirements
    are an unreasonable test of intent, other than to say that they are
    “highly prescriptive,” Industry Pet’rs’ Br. 53-54, an epithet that
    most readers of the Code of Federal Regulations would likely
    apply to every paragraph. In fact the mandated preparations
    seem rather basic. If an entity balks at the prospect of keeping
    a “telephone” and “[p]ortable fire extinguisher[]” on site,
    § 261.410(b)(2)-(3), it may not really belong in the business of
    handling toxic and inflammable secondary materials. And in
    practice it may not even have to do that much: EPA stands
    ready to waive these and other preparedness requirements
    when they’re not necessary. See § 261.410(b), (d), (e).
    As we said of the containment requirements, there is some
    risk that these mandatory precautions might be read
    unreasonably. For example, the obligation “to minimize the
    possibility of” accidents might be taken, standing alone, to
    27
    require all preventive measures no matter the cost.
    § 261.410(a). But we are satisfied that such a reading would
    contravene EPA’s explanation in the rulemaking, that the rule
    tests whether the generator intends “to reduce potential loss of
    valuable hazardous secondary materials.” See Final Rule, 80
    Fed. Reg. at 1,710/2.
    B. Administrative Approval Requirements and Remedy
    Petitioners focus more persuasively on EPA’s abolition of
    the reasonable efforts option and its replacement with a
    requirement of a variance for third-party reclamation. Under
    the Transfer-Based Exclusion, a generator could send materials
    to any reclaimer it chose, provided that, after making a
    reasonable investigation, it “affirmatively answer[ed]” five
    questions about the reclaimer. 40 C.F.R. § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(B)
    (2014). These asked if the reclaimer (1) was employing a
    legitimate recycling process; (2) had notified regulators of its
    operations and its financial stability; (3) had not been the
    subject of recent enforcement actions; (4) had adequate skill
    and equipment to perform the recycling safely; and (5) had
    adequate processes for disposing of any residual wastes
    generated during the recycling. 
    Id. The rule
    required the
    generator to have met this obligation “in good faith” and to
    have based its analysis for each question on an “objectively
    reasonable belief.” 2008 Rule, 73 Fed. Reg. at 64,700/1. A
    generator that failed to meet that standard could be liable for a
    RCRA violation. 
    Id. at 64,699/3-64,700/1.
    The new rule keeps the general framework for evaluating
    reclaimers but broadens the inquiry and assigns it to regulators,
    not the generator. If the reclaimer lacks a RCRA permit or
    interim status, it must secure a regulatory variance under 40
    C.F.R. § 260.31(d) from the EPA Administrator or applicable
    state regulator. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,715/1. And
    the questions, transmogrified into criteria for administrative
    28
    grant, are expanded to include a sixth, requiring the reclaimer
    to “address the potential for risk to proximate populations from
    unpermitted releases of the hazardous secondary material.”
    § 260.31(d)(1)-(6).     EPA asserts that this “additional
    oversight” is required “to ensure that [] hazardous secondary
    material is legitimately recycled and not discarded.” Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,709/1. Here again, EPA’s “good
    reasons” and its claim for permissibility under the statute
    overlap, but not as persuasively as with the emergency
    preparation requirements.
    Recall that EPA has a Generator-Controlled Exclusion
    which is targeted at the same types of material as the Verified
    Recycler Exclusion: hazardous secondary materials reclaimed
    in a manner that doesn’t qualify for pre-2008 exclusions. EPA
    insists that these materials generally have little value as
    recycling inputs, a trait from which one can reasonably infer a
    greater susceptibility to illegitimate or improper recycling. See
    
    id. at 1,707/1-2;
    see also EPA, Revisions to the Definition of
    Solid Waste Final Rule Response to Comments Document, at
    77 (Dec. 10, 2014) (the “Comments Document”)
    (acknowledging that “high value” secondary materials are less
    likely to be discarded but arguing that EPA has “already
    promulgated exclusions for such materials”).
    But this risk of discarding low-value materials would
    apply whether the reclamation occurs in-house or externally.
    And yet while the Generator-Controlled Exclusion and
    Verified Recycler Exclusion share some conditions, only the
    latter requires an administrative approval. Industry Petitioners
    charge that EPA has acted on the basis of an unreasonable
    presumption that transfer carries an undue risk of discard. Such
    a presumption would contradict our holding in Safe Food that
    “[a]s firms have ample reasons to avoid complete vertical
    29
    integration, firm-to-firm transfers are hardly good indicia of a
    ‘discard’” under 
    RCRA. 350 F.3d at 1268
    (citation omitted).
    EPA counters that its reasoning is more nuanced, that it
    rests not on transfer alone, but on the confluence of low-value
    materials and transfer. These factors combine to form
    “perverse incentives . . . to over-accumulate [] hazardous
    secondary materials” without recycling them. Final Rule, 80
    Fed. Reg. at 1,708/2; see also 
    id. at 1,716/1
    (justifying separate
    exclusion for transferred “spent solvents” because third-party
    reclaimers have “little economic reason to accumulate” these
    “higher-value” materials). EPA’s theory is certainly more
    clever than Industry Petitioners give it credit for, but EPA fails
    to provide sufficient linkage between theory, reality, and the
    result reached. See State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    (“[T]he agency
    must examine the relevant data and articulate a satisfactory
    explanation for its action including a ‘rational connection
    between the facts found and the choice made.’” (quoting
    Burlington Truck Lines v. United States, 
    371 U.S. 156
    , 168
    (1962))).
    EPA’s reasoning relies heavily on a theoretical study
    predicting that when the value of a recycled product is low, or
    the market for it “weak or unstable,” the “acceptance fee”
    generators pay when off-loading materials “may be an
    important component of the [reclaimer’s] overall revenue.”
    Market Study at 18; see also 
    id. at 3.
    EPA asserts that this
    incentive leads “commercial third party recyclers to maximize
    the amount of hazardous secondary material they can accept to
    increase profits,” thus creating risks of “over-accumulat[ion]”
    and “discard.” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,752/1. But having
    found that some types of recycling are typified by transfers of
    materials low or unstable in value, see Market Study at 88-89,
    and having surmised that those conditions could lead to
    “market failure,” 
    id. at 3,
    the study disclaims any analysis of
    30
    whether such failures actually occur and to what degree:
    “limitations on the availability and quality of data prevented us
    from conducting [] empirical tests,” 
    id. at 43.
    EPA is free to rely on theoretical or model-based
    approaches, as long as that reliance is reasonable in context.
    As our dissenting colleague points out, Dissent at 10-11, we
    long ago recognized that “[r]easoned decisionmaking can use
    an economic model to provide useful information about
    economic realities, provided there is a conscientious effort to
    take into account what is known as to past experience and what
    is reasonably predictable about the future.” American Public
    Gas Ass’n. v. FPC, 
    567 F.2d 1016
    , 1037 (D.C. Cir. 1977). And
    more recently, as our colleague also points out, Dissent at 11,
    we deferred to EPA’s use of particle-trajectory modeling when
    the agency found it to be “particularly illuminating,” noted that
    it was “more precise” in some cases than historical data, and
    “took reasonable steps to account for [its] limitations,”
    Mississippi Comm’n on Environmental Quality v. EPA, 
    790 F.3d 138
    , 166-71 (D.C. Cir. 2015). Thus what we seek is some
    indication of a reasonable concurrence between model and
    reality. Here the Market Study cautions that its hypothesized
    “sources of market failure,” e.g., skewed incentives leading to
    discard and environmental damage, “do not necessarily
    correlate directly to observable characteristics of the firm or
    market.” Market Study at 48-49. Thus, the study offers EPA
    reasons (based on seemingly sensible notions of market actors’
    incentives) to think that the incidence of discard might be
    somewhat higher in the presence of specific characteristics
    (e.g., low-value materials and third-party transfer) than in their
    absence. But it offers no data to support the view that the
    increased incidence actually exists nor to show how great the
    increase is. That type of information (or a sufficient
    explanation for its absence) is quite important in cases such as
    this, where EPA is determining that an activity nominally
    31
    outside of its jurisdiction should be banned absent regulatory
    pre-approval. Thus EPA’s reliance on the study, standing
    alone, does not provide a sufficient basis for the administrative
    approval provisions.
    EPA claims to have the necessary support in its Problems
    Study, a document whose faults we’ve already discussed. Of
    the study’s 250 instances of recycling gone awry, 238 involved
    third-party recycling as opposed to on-site recycling. Problems
    Study at 8. Based on these “easy to find” cases, 
    id. at 4,
    EPA
    inferred that discard could occur under the old Transfer-Based
    Exclusion unless “additional oversight” was imposed, Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,708/2. But far from confirming the
    Market Study’s assumptions, the Problems Study is even more
    tentative in its treatment of third-party recycling. It cautions
    that the greater proportion of problems at off-site recyclers
    might be because “on-site recycling is simply a less common
    practice.” Problems Study at 8. (The study made no effort to
    explain how the proportions of on-site and off-site reclamation
    in the examples reviewed matched those of the real world.)
    From the study, EPA concluded that “the vast majority of
    environmental damages—approximately 94%—occur at off-
    site commercial recyclers.” Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg at 1,699/2.
    But by focusing only on recycling gone wrong, that statistic
    tells us nothing about such episodes’ overall likelihood in any
    particular setting. Compare Dissent at 11-12. The dissent
    offers a helpful example: imagine that 94% of plane crashes are
    associated with Airline A; can we say that this airline is less
    safe than its competitors? Dissent at 12. Before we can land
    at that conclusion, we’d need first to know something about the
    distribution of flights among airlines. If Airline A performs
    94% of the set of flights that happened to be studied, its crash-
    percentage would seem decidedly average. Compare Problems
    Study at 8 (noting that on-site recycling may be “less
    32
    common”). Or maybe Airline A flies only the most dangerous
    routes. Context gives clues. The Problems Study leaves us
    grasping.
    After commenters attacked EPA’s interpretation of this
    study, EPA responded that because most recyclers lack any
    duty to notify regulators, the agency does not have access to
    better data about recycling practices. Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg.
    at 1,740/3-41/1-2. Indeed, we commonly “defer to an agency’s
    decision to proceed on the basis of imperfect scientific
    information, rather than to invest the resources to conduct the
    perfect study.” Cablevision Sys. Corp. v. FCC, 
    649 F.3d 695
    ,
    717 (D.C. Cir. 2011) (internal quotation marks omitted). But
    limited data do not justify unlimited inferences. Agency
    reliance on imperfect information makes sense only where that
    information supports the agency action.
    The Market Study and Problems Study at most support a
    belief, carried over from the Transfer-Based Exclusion, that
    third-party reclaimers present distinct risks compared to on-site
    reclaimers. These risks would accordingly justify special
    conditions, such as the variance criteria for which the
    Generator-Controlled Exclusion has no analogue. The first
    five of these criteria, which petitioners do not challenge, seem
    properly focused on whether the third-party reclaimer has the
    inclination and ability to recycle legitimately. See 40 C.F.R.
    § 260.31(d)(1)-(5). (We cannot readily say the same of the
    sixth, discussed below.)
    But the imposition of a requirement of advance
    administrative approval cannot be justified merely on the
    differences that EPA has identified between on-site and third-
    party reclamation. EPA must explain why the risk that
    purported third-party recyclers will in reality “discard” the
    materials is so high that reclamation under the Verified
    33
    Recycler Exclusion may only proceed on the basis of prior
    agency approval. On this key aspect of third-party reclamation,
    EPA’s Problems and Market studies say nothing useful.
    EPA invokes yet another study, An Assessment of Good
    Current Practices for Recycling of Hazardous Secondary
    Materials (Nov. 22, 2006). This analysis, performed before
    adoption of the Transfer-Based Exclusion, discussed the extent
    to which generators voluntarily audited their third-party
    recyclers to ensure that “their materials are not mishandled.”
    
    Id. at 7.
    The study found that “auditing is being practiced by
    many responsible companies” but that “small generators do not
    audit as regularly as larger customers” and that smaller
    generators’ audits may not be as thorough. 
    Id. at 20.
    In 2008,
    EPA evidently did not find much alarm in this data; it made the
    reasonable efforts option available for small and large
    generators alike. By 2015, EPA was less sanguine about the
    study’s results, warning that “many smaller generators would
    not have the technical expertise or resources to” adequately
    assess third-party reclaimers. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at
    1,711/3 & n.17. EPA is free to reasonably revise its
    interpretation of that study, but even this updated reasoning
    cannot support the Final Rule. EPA admits in the rulemaking
    that “many large companies do conduct environmental audits
    of recycling facilities.” 
    Id. at 1,711/3.
    A risk that some smaller
    generators would misapply the reasonable efforts option does
    not explain why EPA should treat larger generators as prone to
    making inadequate assessments.
    Along with their challenge to the variance procedure,
    Industry Petitioners also claim that the sixth variance criterion
    is, in substance, vague and unreasonable. This criterion
    involves something of a “cumulative” nuisance standard; it
    requires third-party reclaimers to account for how any
    “unpermitted releases” from their facilities might combine with
    34
    “other nearby potential stressors” to create “risk[s] to
    proximate populations.” 40 C.F.R. § 260.31(d)(6). The more
    environmental problems there already are in an area—such as
    “other industrial facilities, landfills, transportation-related air
    emissions, poor housing conditions (e.g., lead-based paint),
    leaking underground tanks, pesticides, and incompatible land
    uses”—the less appropriate it might be for the reclaimer to add
    yet another stress. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,714/3-
    15/1.
    Thus the criterion assumes discard, i.e., behavior regulable
    under RCRA, and seeks to constrain its environmental impact,
    rather than testing for discard’s existence. It identifies one of
    the many problems related to waste disposal, but not whether
    the reclaimer is actually contributing to the waste disposal
    problem. Were we dealing with materials that were lawfully
    identified as hazardous waste, this test might be valid for some
    purposes. But the Verified Recycler Exclusion covers
    materials that might be labeled waste only because of a
    reclamation-equals-discard rule that EPA has all but conceded
    is overbroad. 
    Id. at 1,708/3.
    This criterion therefore cannot
    stand as a means of identifying discard.
    As for remedy, Industry Petitioners ask that we keep the
    Verified Recycler Exclusion in place while removing its
    objectionable provisions. They seek this remedy because not
    all of the Final Rule’s changes were to their detriment.
    Whereas the Transfer-Based Exclusion disqualified spent
    catalyst generators from relying on it, 40 C.F.R.
    § 261.4(a)(24)(iii) (2014) (spent catalysts referenced as K171
    and K172), the Verified Recycler Exclusion removed that bar.
    As at least one of petitioners’ members is a spent catalyst
    generator, an unalloyed return to the Transfer-Based Exclusion
    would be for it a hollow victory.
    35
    We will “sever[] and affirm[] [] a portion of an
    administrative regulation” only when we can say without any
    “‘substantial doubt’ that the agency would have adopted the
    severed portion on its own.” New Jersey v. EPA, 
    517 F.3d 574
    ,
    584 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (internal quotation marks omitted). Thus
    we have severed provisions when “they operate[d] entirely
    independently of one another.” Davis Cty. Solid Waste Mgmt.
    v. EPA, 
    108 F.3d 1454
    , 1459 (D.C. Cir. 1997). Here, though,
    we are not sure that EPA’s regulatory and deregulatory efforts
    were wholly independent. The rulemaking shows that EPA
    entertained two different options for removing the spent
    catalyst bar: first as part of the plan to repeal the Transfer-
    Based Exclusion entirely and replace it with “alternative
    Subtitle C regulat[ions]” for which “spent catalysts would be
    eligible,” Proposed Rule, 76 Fed. Reg. at 44,141/3 & n.54;
    second as part of the Verified Recycler Exclusion that EPA
    adopted, Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,738/1. At no point in
    the record does EPA propose keeping the Transfer-Based
    Exclusion and repealing its spent catalyst disqualifier.
    Would EPA have so proposed had it known the Verified
    Recycler Exclusion would be vacated? There is some evidence
    pointing in that direction, but doubts remain. EPA explained
    that its spent catalyst decision was due in large part to changes
    to the “contained” standard at 40 C.F.R. § 260.10; these
    revisions addressed the risk of fire that originally led EPA to
    bar spent catalysts. See Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,738/1.
    EPA also removed the spent catalyst disqualifier from the
    Generator-Controlled Exclusion, which is generally less
    restrictive than the Verified Recycler Exclusion. See 
    id. These facts
    suggest that EPA might have removed the disqualifier
    absent the other changes in the Verified Recycler Exclusion.
    But when commenters attacked EPA’s proposal to remove the
    spent catalyst bar and advocated a more stringent approach,
    EPA responded that, to fulfill the goal of allowing only
    36
    legitimate recycling, there was no need to impose the suggested
    “additional conditions.” Comments Document at 265-66.
    EPA’s answer assumed that that the new Verified Recycler
    Exclusion and the new containment standard were together
    sufficient to regulate transferred spent catalysts. We cannot
    clearly infer what EPA would have done absent that exclusion.
    The only changes in the Verified Recycler Exclusion that
    we can sever without any “substantial doubt” are the
    emergency      preparedness     requirements,     40    C.F.R.
    § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(E), which are as we explained lawful, and an
    expanded containment requirement, § 261.4(a)(24)(v)(A),
    which was not challenged. These new provisions address some
    of EPA’s perceived “regulatory gaps” in the Transfer-Based
    Exclusion, Final Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,706/3, and they do not
    depend on any vacated portions of the Verified Recycler
    Exclusion. On remand, EPA can of course renumber its rules
    as necessary to accommodate the returning Transfer-Based
    Exclusion provisions.
    EPA has not commented on the requested remedy,
    probably because the remedy section in Industry Petitioners’
    opening brief was quite confusing, and their desire to sever and
    affirm was made evident only in their reply. If EPA, or any
    party, wishes to disabuse us of our substantial doubt with a
    petition for rehearing, we will of course reconsider as
    necessary. See MD/DC/DE Broadcasters Ass’n v. FCC, 
    253 F.3d 732
    , 740 (D.C. Cir. 2001) (citing Virginia v. EPA, 
    116 F.3d 499
    , 500-01 (D.C. Cir. 1997)).
    Having concluded that the Verified Recycler Exclusion is
    unreasonable, we need not address Environmental Petitioners’
    argument that the exclusion is too lenient.
    IV. Remaining Challenges by Industry Petitioners
    37
    Industry Petitioners have two remaining challenges. The
    first is that EPA cannot subject spent catalysts to the Verified
    Recycler Exclusion. The second is that EPA cannot treat off-
    specification commercial chemical products as secondary
    materials. The first is rendered moot by our restoration of the
    Transfer-Based Exclusion, and no more needs to be said about
    it here. The second is also outside our jurisdiction, but for
    reasons requiring more explanation.
    During the rulemaking, a commenter asked EPA to
    confirm that commercial chemical products are not “hazardous
    secondary material[s]” as that class is defined in 40 C.F.R.
    § 260.10. Comments Document at 313. EPA answered, much
    to Industry Petitioners’ chagrin, that “a commercial chemical
    product listed in 40 CFR 261.33 could be considered a
    hazardous secondary material if it is off-specification or
    otherwise unable to be sold as a product.” 
    Id. at 314;
    see
    Industry Pet’rs’ Br. 58-65. The question and EPA’s answer
    concern an issue that is antecedent to the Final Rule’s
    definition of discarded hazardous waste. The rule identifies
    when secondary materials become waste as a result of being
    sham recycled, but that delineation necessarily builds on prior
    law and regulations governing when materials are secondary.
    We cannot assess EPA’s statement on that subject unless we
    can find the issue within our original jurisdiction, which is
    limited to actions by EPA “promulgating” regulations, etc. 42
    U.S.C. § 6976(a)(1).
    Tellingly, the comment and EPA’s response are
    interpreting provisions in 40 C.F.R. § 260.10 and § 260.33 that
    were left untouched by the Final Rule. See Comments
    Document at 313-14. Because of the limits on our jurisdiction,
    we cannot entertain the claim unless EPA’s statement was
    more than just an interpretation of a prior rule; it must interpret
    part of the Final Rule or be itself an effective “legislative rule.”
    38
    See Cement Kiln Recycling Coal. v. EPA, 
    493 F.3d 207
    , 226
    (D.C. Cir. 2007). Industry Petitioners’ allegation, though, is
    that EPA’s response abandoned a prior policy, embodied
    largely in guidance materials, without properly recognizing
    that change. Industry Pet’rs’ Br. 64-65. Such a challenge is
    properly before the district court, not this tribunal (Industry
    Petitioners make no claim of pendent jurisdiction). See 42
    U.S.C. § 6976(a)(1). We express no opinion on when EPA
    may consider commercial chemical products to be secondary
    materials.
    V. Challenges by Environmental Petitioners
    Environmental Petitioners challenge EPA’s approach to
    the pre-2008 exclusions. As noted above, before 2008, EPA
    had promulgated 32 exclusions from the definition of solid
    waste—that is, it had exempted 32 different materials,
    products, or processes from Subtitle C regulation. In its
    Proposed Rule, EPA proposed subjecting facilities that
    qualified for these exclusions to four new requirements, three
    of which are relevant here: legitimacy, containment, and
    notification. 76 Fed. Reg. at 44,138/3-39/1-2. The proposed
    legitimacy condition set forth the factors that facilities had to
    satisfy in order to prove they are engaged in legitimate, rather
    than sham, recycling. Under the proposed containment
    condition, facilities had to store all hazardous secondary
    materials in units that meet certain safety, quality, and labeling
    criteria. 
    Id. at 44,140/1.
    And the proposed notification
    condition obligated regulated parties periodically to submit
    information to EPA so that the agency could monitor
    compliance. 
    Id. at 44,140/1-2.
    EPA based these conditions on
    a study of environmental damage cases involving hazardous
    waste (an earlier version of the Problems Study) and EPA’s
    finding that most of cases in that study were associated with
    secondary materials exempted under a pre-2008 exclusion. 
    Id. at 44,138/1-2.
                                  39
    In the final rule, however, EPA opted to apply only the
    legitimacy condition to all pre-2008 exclusions and deferred a
    decision about whether to do the same with containment and
    notification. Specifically, EPA stated that it was “deferring
    action on applying the contain[ment] [and notification]
    standard[s] to the pre-2008 exclusions and exemptions until [it
    could] more adequately address commenters’ concerns.” Final
    Rule, 80 Fed. Reg. at 1,766/2-3. Commenters had raised
    unanticipated objections, EPA explained, regarding the
    difficulties of implementing a universal containment provision
    and the burdens imposed by a notification requirement. 
    Id. Environmental Petitioners
    take issue with EPA’s decision
    to defer action on containment and notification. Drawing on
    language from the Proposed Rule, they argue that EPA
    fundamentally changed its position without explanation:
    whereas the agency originally viewed containment and
    notification as “minimum requirements necessary to define
    when recycled hazardous secondary materials are not
    discarded,” 76 Fed. Reg. at 44,138/3-39/1, it ultimately
    determined that containment and notification conditions were
    expendable.     This unexplained reversal, Environmental
    Petitioners contend, was arbitrary and capricious.
    We need not—indeed cannot—reach the merits of this
    challenge. RCRA’s judicial review provision vests this court
    with exclusive power to review “action[s] of the Administrator
    in promulgating any regulation, or requirement under this
    chapter or denying any petition for the promulgation,
    amendment or repeal of any regulation under this chapter.” 42
    U.S.C. § 6976(a)(1). This provision gives us jurisdiction over
    only “three types of actions by EPA: promulgation of final
    regulations, promulgation of requirements, and the denial of
    petitions for the promulgation, amendment or repeal of RCRA
    regulations.” API 
    I, 216 F.3d at 68
    ; see Molycorp, Inc. v. EPA,
    40
    
    197 F.3d 543
    , 545 (D.C. Cir. 1999) (characterizing 42 U.S.C.
    § 6976(a)(1) as “a limitation on our jurisdiction”). Critically
    here, we have held that “[a] decision by an agency to defer
    taking action is not a final action reviewable [under RCRA].”
    API 
    I, 216 F.3d at 68
    ; see also American Portland Cement
    Alliance v. EPA, 
    101 F.3d 772
    , 777 (D.C. Cir. 1996). Because
    EPA expressly stated that it was deferring action on applying
    containment and notification conditions to the pre-2008
    exclusions, we lack jurisdiction to review Environmental
    Petitioners’ claim.
    Environmental Petitioners resist this straightforward
    jurisdictional analysis. Citing Montana v. Clark, 
    749 F.2d 740
    (D.C. Cir. 1984), and Appalachian Power Co. v. EPA, 
    208 F.3d 1015
    (D.C. Cir. 2000), they argue that we may review EPA’s
    decision to defer. But neither of these cases construes RCRA’s
    judicial review provision. See Appalachian Power 
    Co., 208 F.3d at 1020-22
    (interpreting the Clean Air Act’s judicial
    review provision); 
    Clark, 749 F.2d at 744
    (interpreting the
    Administrative Procedure Act). And even if they did, those
    cases are easily distinguished. Whether we have authority to
    review an agency’s express rejection of a request to amend
    longstanding regulations, 
    Clark, 749 F.2d at 744
    , is irrelevant
    where, as here, EPA has merely deferred—rather than
    rejected—a particular action. Moreover, although “[t]he fact
    that a law may be altered in the future has nothing to do with
    whether it is subject to judicial review at the moment,”
    Appalachian Power 
    Co., 208 F.3d at 1022
    , we lack jurisdiction
    to review EPA’s deferred action not because EPA could change
    its mind down the road, but because it has yet to make up its
    mind in the first place.
    Alternatively, Environmental Petitioners contend that we
    have jurisdiction over their challenge because EPA “reopened”
    comment on the pre-2008 exclusions and then declined to
    41
    revise them. Environmental Pet’rs’ Br. 43. The reopener
    doctrine “permits a plaintiff to bring an otherwise-stale
    challenge . . . . when an agency has considered substantively
    changing a rule but ultimately declined to do so.” Mendoza v.
    Perez, 
    754 F.3d 1002
    , 1019 n.12 (D.C. Cir. 2014).
    Environmental Petitioners’ reopener argument falters for a
    simple reason: the doctrine has no applicability to this case
    because EPA never considered changing the substance of the
    pre-2008 exclusions. As it stated in the Proposed Rule, EPA
    was “not reopening comment on any substantive provisions of
    the regulatory exclusions or exemptions,” but rather was
    proposing legitimacy, containment, and notification
    requirements “as means to better enforce the regulations.” 76
    Fed. Reg. at 44,138/3.
    Of course, nothing in our conclusion forecloses judicial
    review of EPA’s inaction once and for all. Environmental
    Petitioners may petition EPA to promulgate a rule imposing
    containment and notification conditions and, if their petition is
    denied, seek review in this court. See 42 U.S.C. § 6976(a)(1)
    (granting jurisdiction to review denials of rulemaking
    petitions). We conclude only that Environmental Petitioners
    are barred from obtaining review in the manner they now seek.
    And because we dispose of their challenge by concluding that
    we are without statutory jurisdiction, we have no reason to
    address Industry Intervenors’ contention that Environmental
    Petitioners lack Article III standing.         See Sinochem
    International Co. Ltd. v. Malaysia International Shipping
    Corp., 
    549 U.S. 422
    , 431 (2007) (holding that “there is no
    mandatory ‘sequencing of jurisdictional issues’” and that “a
    federal court has leeway ‘to choose among threshold grounds
    for denying audience to a case on the merits’” (quoting
    Ruhrgas AG v. Marathon Oil Co., 
    526 U.S. 574
    , 584-85
    (1999))).
    42
    VI. Conclusion
    The Final Rule is upheld in part and vacated in part as
    consistent with this opinion. Briefly put: Factor 3 is upheld;
    Factor 4 is vacated insofar as it applies to all hazardous
    secondary materials via § 261.2(g); the Verified Recycler
    Exclusion is vacated except for its emergency preparedness
    provisions and its expanded containment requirement; and the
    Transfer-Based Exclusion is reinstated. As a consequence of
    the latter, the removal of that exclusion’s bar on spent catalysts
    is vacated, subject, as we noted above, to such arguments as
    parties may raise supporting a different outcome.
    So ordered.
    TATEL, Circuit Judge, dissenting from Parts II.B and III.B: In
    the mid-1970s, as industrial and technological developments
    spurred the national economy, the United States faced “a rising
    tide of scrap, discarded, and waste materials.” 42 U.S.C.
    § 6901(a)(2). This mounting waste caused “serious financial,
    management, intergovernmental, and technical problems,” 
    id. § 6901(a)(3),
    and posed a grave threat “to human health and
    the environment,” 
    id. § 6901(b)(5).
    In response, Congress
    passed the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA),
    42 U.S.C. §§ 6901–6992k, a comprehensive scheme “to
    regulate hazardous wastes from cradle to grave in accordance
    with . . . rigorous safeguards and waste management
    procedures,” Chicago v. Environmental Defense Fund, 
    511 U.S. 328
    , 331 (1994). Through RCRA, and central to this case,
    Congress sought to prevent environmental harm by ensuring
    that hazardous waste was “properly managed in the first
    instance thereby reducing the need for corrective action at a
    future date.” 42 U.S.C. § 6902(a)(5).
    Congress gave the Administrator of the Environmental
    Protection Agency (EPA) broad authority to effectuate this
    goal. See 
    id. § 6912.
    Selected by the President and confirmed
    by the Senate for his or her expertise in environmental issues,
    the Administrator may promulgate “such regulations as are
    necessary to carry out his [or her] functions.” 
    Id. § 6912(a)(1).
    The judiciary, by contrast, has a limited role under RCRA.
    When reviewing rules issued by the Administrator, the courts,
    lacking environmental expertise and political accountability,
    are bound by two fundamental principles of judicial restraint.
    First, because RCRA provides for review “in accordance
    with” the Administrative Procedure Act, 
    id. § 6976(a),
    a
    reviewing court’s task is to ask only whether the rule is
    “arbitrary, capricious, an abuse of discretion, or otherwise not
    in accordance with law,” 5 U.S.C. § 706(2)(A). As the Supreme
    Court has made clear, once a court is satisfied that EPA is
    acting within its delegated authority, the “scope of [judicial]
    2
    review under the ‘arbitrary and capricious’ standard is narrow.”
    Motor Vehicle Manufacturers Association of the United States
    v. State Farm Mutual Automobile Insurance Co., 
    463 U.S. 29
    ,
    43 (1983). Courts are “not to ask whether a regulatory decision
    is the best one possible or even whether it is better than the
    alternatives.” FERC v. Electric Power Supply Association, 
    136 S. Ct. 760
    , 782 (2016). This is especially true where, as here,
    agency action involves “a high level of technical expertise,”
    Marsh v. Oregon Natural Resources Council, 
    490 U.S. 360
    ,
    377 (1989) (quoting Kleppe v. Sierra Club, 
    427 U.S. 390
    , 412
    (1976) (internal quotation mark omitted)), and “predictive
    judgments about areas that are within the agency’s field of
    discretion,” BNSF Railway Co. v. Surface Transportation
    Board, 
    526 F.3d 770
    , 781 (D.C. Cir. 2008) (quoting Wisconsin
    Public Power, Inc. v. FERC, 
    493 F.3d 239
    , 260 (D.C. Cir.
    2007)).
    Second, when reviewing facial challenges to a rule—again
    as here—courts are required to assess the rule’s validity across
    a broad spectrum of applications; they are not to imagine
    whether the rule might be arbitrary in “uncommon particular
    applications,” which, of course, can be challenged later should
    they arise. EPA v. EME Homer City Generation, L.P., 
    134 S. Ct. 1584
    , 1609 (2014). As Congress well knew when it
    authorized pre-enforcement facial review of RCRA rules, see
    42 U.S.C. § 6976(a)(1), the fact that a petitioner—or for that
    matter a judge—“can point to a hypothetical case in which the
    rule might lead to an arbitrary result does not render the rule
    ‘arbitrary or capricious,’” American Hospital Association v.
    NLRB, 
    499 U.S. 606
    , 619 (1991).
    In this case, EPA promulgated a rule defining when
    hazardous materials qualify as “discarded” and thus may be
    subjected to RCRA’s rigorous protections. The court never
    questions the Administrator’s statutory authority to issue the
    3
    Final Rule, but nonetheless invalidates two of its critical
    features: Factor 4 of the legitimacy test, which distinguishes
    genuine from sham recycling; and the verified recycler
    exclusion, which ensures that companies claiming to recycle
    hazardous waste in fact do so. In reaching this result, the court
    displays a level of scrutiny that I believe conflicts with the
    APA’s highly deferential standard of review and with the
    principles governing judicial review of facial challenges to
    rules. As a result, the court has deprived the public of two
    safeguards that the Administrator, exercising her statutory
    authority under RCRA, reasonably believed were needed to
    protect “human health and the environment.” 42 U.S.C.
    § 6901(b)(5). I respectfully dissent.
    I.
    Factor 4 of the legitimacy test targets sham recyclers that
    incorporate hazardous materials into recycled products in order
    to avoid proper recycling or disposal. It does so by requiring
    that the product of a recycling process “be comparable to a
    legitimate product or intermediate.” 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4).
    This approach makes sense: as the Administrator explained,
    “high levels of hazardous constituents” in an allegedly recycled
    product “could indicate that the recycler incorporated
    hazardous constituents into the final product when they were
    not needed to make that product effective.” 80 Fed. Reg. 1,726.
    The Final Rule offers recyclers three alternative avenues for
    demonstrating compliance with Factor 4.
    First, subparagraph (i) addresses recycled products that
    have raw analogues. Such products satisfy Factor 4 if they (A)
    “do[] not exhibit a hazardous characteristic . . . that analogous
    products do not exhibit” and (B) contain comparable
    concentrations of hazardous constituents or hazardous-
    constituent levels that meet widely used commodity standards.
    40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(i). In my view, this subparagraph
    4
    rationally effectuates Factor 4’s general approach. EPA
    inferred that if a recycled product contains more hazardous
    constituents or properties than its raw analogue, sham recycling
    has occurred. 80 Fed. Reg. 1,727. Why else would those
    hazardous constituents or properties be present? By way of
    example, EPA pointed to paint made from recycled hazardous
    materials. If such paint contains significant amounts of
    cadmium (a hazardous constituent), but the same type of paint
    made from raw materials contains no cadmium, such a
    disparity “could indicate that the cadmium serves no useful
    purpose and is being passed through the recycling process and
    discarded in the product.” 
    Id. We validated
    an almost identical technical judgment by
    the Administrator in Safe Food and Fertilizer v. EPA, 
    350 F.3d 1263
    (D.C. Cir. 2003). Under the rule in that case, certain
    recycled materials were deemed non-discarded when (1)
    market participants treated them “more like valuable products
    than like negatively-valued wastes” and (2) “the [products]
    derived from the recycled [materials were] chemically
    indistinguishable from analogous commercial products made
    from virgin materials.” 
    Id. at 1269.
    In essence, this rule
    exempted materials from regulation based on their compliance
    with criteria that, like Factors 3 and 4, assess whether recyclers
    treat materials as valuable commodities and generate products
    chemically indistinguishable from analogous products. We
    held that these two factors, in conjunction, represented a
    “reasonable tool for distinguishing products from wastes.” 
    Id. As to
    the “identity principle”—subparagraph (i)’s
    counterpart—the court reasoned that where a recycled product
    is “indistinguishable in the relevant respects” from the
    analogous “virgin” product, it is “eminently reasonable” to
    treat both as “products rather than wastes.” 
    Id. 5 In
    spite of Safe Food, this court concludes that
    subparagraph (i) is too “imprecis[e]” to be reasonable. Maj. Op.
    at 12. In its view, some legitimately recycled products may
    contain “some small excess of hazardous constituents,” and the
    presence of those hazardous materials “would not constitute a
    reasonable basis for dubbing the product or the process a
    sham.” 
    Id. But subparagraph
    (i) does not simply target products
    with “some small excess of hazardous constituents.” Rather, it
    targets products with significantly more hazardous constituents
    or properties than an analogous raw product, i.e., beyond “a
    small acceptable range” of difference. 80 Fed. Reg. 1,727. The
    Administrator explained: “If a product produced with
    hazardous secondary material exhibited a characteristic of
    hazardous waste that an analogous product did not exhibit, this
    would be an indication that sham recycling could be occurring
    as a significant hazardous constituent or characteristic would
    be in the product only as a result of the recycling of the
    hazardous secondary material.” 
    Id. (emphasis added).
    Perhaps the presumption underlying subparagraph (i) does
    suffer from some “imprecision.” Maj. Op. at 12. Yet because
    Industry Petitioners have mounted a facial attack on the Final
    Rule, this court has no authority to conjure up “hypothetical
    case[s] in which the rule might lead to an arbitrary result.”
    American Hospital 
    Association, 499 U.S. at 619
    . Where, as
    here, the Administrator’s presumption of sham recycling based
    on elevated levels of hazardous constituents is reasonable
    across most applications, we must uphold it. 
    Id. If someday
    the
    Administrator applies the rule to a recycler in an arbitrary and
    capricious manner—for instance, as the court fears, by
    selecting an unreasonably “small acceptable range of
    difference,” see Maj. Op. at 19—that recycler “may bring a
    particularized, as-applied challenge to the [rule],” EME Homer
    City 
    Generation, 134 S. Ct. at 1609
    .
    6
    The court’s analysis of subparagraph (i) suffers from a
    second defect. Whether the presence of hazardous constituents
    provides sufficient evidence of sham recycling is exactly the
    type of technical judgment that RCRA delegates to the
    Administrator. Of course, the Administrator “must examine the
    relevant data and articulate a satisfactory explanation for its
    action.” State 
    Farm, 463 U.S. at 43
    . The court, however, never
    questions the Administrator’s compliance with these two
    requirements. Instead, it second guesses the Administrator’s
    “predictive judgments,” BNSF Railway 
    Co., 526 F.3d at 781
    ,
    about a matter—the precise level of hazardous constituents
    needed to demonstrate sham recycling—that “requires a high
    level of technical expertise” to which “we must defer,” 
    Marsh, 490 U.S. at 377
    .
    Subparagraph (ii), which applies when a recycled product
    has no raw analogue, offers recyclers a second way to show
    compliance with Factor 4. These products qualify as legitimate
    if they “meet[] widely recognized commodity standards and
    specifications” or if “[t]he hazardous secondary materials
    being recycled are returned to the original process . . . from
    which they were generated.” 40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(ii).
    The court concedes that subparagraph (ii) is reasonable,
    see Maj. Op. at 10–11, and for good reason. The Final Rule
    describes the agency’s efforts to address commenters’ concerns
    that in many cases of legitimate recycling “there may not be an
    analogous product with which a facility can compare the
    product of the recycling process.” 80 Fed. Reg. 1,728. In
    response to these concerns, as well as other comments
    supporting an approach focused on commodity standards and
    closed-loop recycling, the Administrator carved out “recycling
    processes that [are] designed to use a specific hazardous
    secondary material to make a useful product and processes that
    7
    always incorporate[] a hazardous secondary material back into
    the generating process during manufacturing.” 
    Id. Finally, subparagraph
    (iii)—a catchall for recyclers unable
    to comply with subparagraphs (i) or (ii)—allows recyclers to
    demonstrate legitimacy by showing either a “lack of exposure
    from . . . or bioavailability of . . . toxics” in the product.
    40 C.F.R. § 260.43(a)(4)(iii). Even if they fail to make either
    showing, moreover, recyclers can still demonstrate legitimacy
    by pointing to any “other relevant considerations” showing that
    the product does not “pose a significant human health or
    environmental risk.” 
    Id. To make
    these showings, recyclers
    must “prepare documentation,” including a “certification
    statement that the recycling is legitimate,” which “must be
    maintained on-site for three years after the recycling operation
    has ceased.” 
    Id. Although the
    court acknowledges that subparagraph
    (iii) reasonably draws the line between recycling and discard
    through a perspective based on health and environmental risks,
    Maj. Op. at 15 (citing Safe 
    Food, 350 F.3d at 1269
    –70), it
    nonetheless concludes that subparagraph (iii) “falls short of
    saving the rule, due to the draconian character of the
    procedures it imposes on recyclers,” namely, the requirement
    to prove legitimacy by preparing and maintaining
    “paperwork,” 
    id. at 15–16.
    For their part, however, Industry Petitioners never argue
    that the rule’s paperwork obligations are too rigorous. This is
    understandable. If subparagraph (iii) qualifies as draconian,
    then so too would countless other run-of-the-mill requirements
    that entities file applications and keep certificates on hand: like
    those for pilots, see 14 C.F.R. § 61.3; 
    id. § 61.123,
    elevator
    operators, see D.C. MUN. REGS. tit. 12, § 3010A–3011A, and
    businesses selling alcohol, see D.C. CODE § 25-401; 
    id. § 25-
                                   8
    711, just to name a few. Not even the procedures for gaining
    and maintaining admission to the District of Columbia Bar
    would pass muster, as they require candidates to prepare a
    character and fitness application and certify completion of a
    mandatory course on professional conduct. See D.C. COURT OF
    APPEALS R. 46; D.C. BAR BYLAWS, R. 2.
    In any event, the court’s conclusion runs headlong into
    precedent. In American Chemistry Council v. EPA, 
    337 F.3d 1060
    (D.C. Cir. 2003), we considered a challenge to an EPA
    rule that presumed certain mixtures and derivatives of waste
    were “hazardous” and thus subject to regulation, yet permitted
    regulated entities to show otherwise. Upholding this rule, we
    concluded that the Administrator acted reasonably in
    “[p]lacing the burden upon the regulated entity to show the lack
    of a hazardous characteristic.” 
    Id. at 1065.
    This burden-shifting
    approach, we determined, alleviated unmanageable
    administrative obligations for the agency and comported with
    RCRA’s command to “err on the side of caution.” 
    Id. at 1065–
    66.
    Subparagraph (iii) works just like the rule we approved in
    American Chemistry Council. If a recycler is unable to satisfy
    subparagraph (i) or (ii), it is a presumptive sham recycler.
    Subparagraph (iii) then allows the recycler to prove otherwise
    by making the requisite showings through documentation. If
    anything, the rule here is more lenient than the one in American
    Chemistry Council because subparagraph (iii) provides for a
    “self-implementing certification process,” 80 Fed. Reg. 1,730,
    rather than a “cumbersome . . . delisting process,” American
    Chemistry 
    Council, 337 F.3d at 1065
    .
    According to the court, the Final Rule is unlike the one in
    American Chemistry Council because the Administrator never
    demonstrated that recyclers failing to meet subparagraph (i) are
    9
    presumptively discarding. Maj. Op. at 16–17. At bottom, then,
    the court’s critique of subparagraph (iii) traces back to its
    conclusion that subparagraph (i) (and only subparagraph (i))
    does not reasonably distinguish legitimate from sham
    recycling. But contrary to the court’s view, EPA cogently
    explained why subparagraph (i) is reasonable across most
    applications, adding subparagraph (iii) only given the
    possibility that “there may still be instances where recycling is
    legitimate, but is unable to meet” subparagraph (i) or (ii). 80
    Fed. Reg. 1,729. Subparagraph (iii) thus serves as a catchall
    provision designed to give industry even more “flex[ibility],”
    
    id., not as
    a tacit acknowledgment that subparagraph (i) is
    deficient, contra Maj. Op. at 14. Rather than “substitute [its]
    own judgment for that of [EPA],” this court should defer to the
    agency’s technical and policy decisions. Electric Power Supply
    
    Association, 136 S. Ct. at 782
    .
    II.
    The key difference between the verified recycler exclusion
    and its predecessor—the transfer-based exclusion—is that the
    new rule shifts oversight of off-site recyclers from the industry
    to the Administrator. 80 Fed. Reg. 1,709. Whereas before waste
    generators audited off-site recyclers to ensure their legitimacy,
    now the Administrator or a state authority issues a variance
    confirming that a recycler’s practices are sound. 
    Id. at 1,695.
    The court never questions the Administrator’s authority to
    promulgate this rule. Instead, invoking a single line from Safe
    Food—“firm-to-firm transfers are hardly good indicia of a
    
    ‘discard,’” 350 F.3d at 1268
    —the court concludes that the
    Administrator had no basis for finding that transferred
    hazardous materials “carr[y] an undue risk of discard,” Maj.
    Op. at 28.
    10
    Safe Food, however, held only that transferred materials
    are not automatically discarded simply because they are sent
    off-site. As we explained, although “we have never said that
    RCRA compels the conclusion that material destined for
    recycling in another industry is necessarily ‘discarded,’” the
    statute “does not preclude application of RCRA to such
    materials if they can reasonably be considered part of the waste
    disposal problem.” Safe 
    Food, 350 F.3d at 1268
    . The verified
    recycler exclusion is consistent with Safe Food: it defines
    transferred materials as discarded if—and only if—the off-site
    recycler receiving the materials fails to meet certain criteria,
    which carefully discern whether allegedly recycled materials
    “can reasonably be considered part of the waste disposal
    problem.” 
    Id. This approach
    finds ample support in the administrative
    record. When designing the verified recycler exclusion, the
    Administrator relied on multiple sources, including a report on
    market forces in the recycling industry and a study of the
    environmental problems associated with recycling hazardous
    secondary materials. 80 Fed. Reg. 1,707. The first of these, the
    market study, concluded that off-site commercial recyclers,
    which generate revenue primarily by receiving hazardous
    materials, have “economic incentives to accumulate waste
    beyond their ability to deal with it.” 
    Id. The second
    report, the
    problems study, found that of 208 cases in which hazardous
    waste recycling led to serious environmental damage, 94
    percent were attributable to “off-site third-party recyclers.” 
    Id. In the
    court’s view, neither study justifies the rule.
    Although not impugning the market study on its merits, the
    court rejects it as lacking empirical analysis. But no rule of
    administrative law bars agencies from relying on studies that
    use economic models to assess market incentives. In fact, EPA
    often relies on theoretical models—that is, studies without
    11
    corroborating “data,” Maj. Op at 30—and our court has long
    held that “[r]easoned decisionmaking can use an economic
    model to provide useful information about economic realities.”
    American Public Gas Association v. FPC, 
    567 F.2d 1016
    , 1037
    (D.C. Cir. 1977); see also Mississippi Commission on
    Environmental Quality v. EPA, 
    790 F.3d 138
    , 171 (D.C. Cir.
    2015) (“EPA’s application, interpretation and modification of
    [predictive] modeling [to set emissions standards] plainly fall
    ‘within its technical expertise’ and thus we owe it ‘an extreme
    degree of deference.’” (quoting ATK Launch Systems, Inc. v.
    EPA, 
    669 F.3d 330
    , 338 (D.C. Cir. 2012))).
    At any rate, the problems study provides plenty of
    empirical support for the conclusion that off-site recycling
    leads to discard. It surveyed cases since 1982 in which
    recyclers contaminated the environment by discarding
    hazardous waste, poisoning soil and groundwater “with
    remediation costs in some instances in the tens of millions of
    dollars.” 80 Fed. Reg. 1,707. To identify these cases, EPA
    reviewed scores of sources, including the Superfund National
    Priorities List, national and state databases, comments from at
    least three different rulemakings, media reports, and
    information gleaned from contacts in EPA regional offices and
    state agencies. See EPA OFFICE OF RESOURCE CONSERVATION
    AND RECOVERY, AN ASSESSMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL
    PROBLEMS ASSOCIATED WITH RECYCLING OF HAZARDOUS
    SECONDARY MATERIALS 4 (2014). This thorough canvassing
    revealed that a full 94 percent of cases involving serious
    environmental damage could be attributed to off-site recycling.
    The court condemns the problems study for “focus[ing]
    only on recycling gone wrong.” Maj. Op. at 31. As a result, the
    court reasons, the study “tells us nothing” about the relative
    risks of off-site recycling or the total damage caused by off-site
    recyclers. 
    Id. But this
    focuses on the wrong question. As the
    12
    Administrator recognized, the salient question is not what
    percentage of all off-site recycling damages the environment,
    but rather what portion of serious damage from hazardous
    waste disposal is caused by off-site recyclers. The core issue
    here is whether EPA may target the very companies (off-site
    recyclers) most responsible for environmental damage. Given
    the agency’s statutory obligation to prevent environmental
    harm from discarded hazardous waste, I see no reason why it
    cannot. Accordingly, that some off-site recycling is safe or that
    serious environmental damage is relatively unusual is beside
    the point.
    Consider this issue in a different context. If there were 208
    plane crashes and 94 percent were linked to one carrier, it
    would be eminently reasonable for an agency tasked with
    preventing plane crashes to require that carrier to demonstrate
    that its practices were safe, no matter how many flights the
    carrier completed or what percentage of total flights it
    performed. Contra Maj. Op. at 31–32. No one would argue that
    it was unreasonable to regulate the carrier because only a small
    percentage of its total flights crashed. Yet this court’s approach
    would yield just that result.
    In the end, the fundamental problem with the court’s
    conclusion—that the Administrator needs more proof that off-
    site recycling is unsafe before requiring a variance—is that the
    court decides for itself a policy question Congress left to the
    Administrator. RCRA envisions a careful balance of authority
    between EPA and this court. Today the court upsets that
    balance.
    

Document Info

Docket Number: 09-1038

Citation Numbers: 862 F.3d 50

Filed Date: 7/7/2017

Precedential Status: Precedential

Modified Date: 1/12/2023

Authorities (28)

Safe Food Fertilizer v. EPA , 350 F.3d 1263 ( 2003 )

davis-county-solid-waste-management-and-energy-recovery-special-service , 108 F.3d 1454 ( 1997 )

Assn Battery Recycl v. EPA , 208 F.3d 1047 ( 2000 )

Molycorp, Inc. v. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency , 197 F.3d 543 ( 1999 )

American Chemistry Council v. Environmental Protection ... , 337 F.3d 1060 ( 2003 )

Commonwealth of Virginia v. Environmental Protection Agency,... , 116 F.3d 499 ( 1997 )

National Mining Association v. Bruce Babbitt, Secretary, ... , 172 F.3d 906 ( 1999 )

American Petroleum Institute,petitioners v. United States ... , 216 F.3d 50 ( 2000 )

American Portland Cement Alliance v. Environmental ... , 101 F.3d 772 ( 1996 )

Appalachian Power Co. v. Environmental Protection Agency , 208 F.3d 1015 ( 2000 )

Cement Kiln Recycling Coalition v. Environmental Protection ... , 493 F.3d 207 ( 2007 )

Wisconsin Public Power Inc. v. Federal Energy Regulatory ... , 493 F.3d 239 ( 2007 )

Cablevision Systems Corp. v. Federal Communications ... , 649 F.3d 695 ( 2011 )

american-mining-congress-and-engelhard-corporation-v-united-states , 824 F.2d 1177 ( 1987 )

ATK Launch Systems, Inc. v. Environmental Protection Agency , 669 F.3d 330 ( 2012 )

BNSF Railway Co. v. Surface Transportation Board , 526 F.3d 770 ( 2008 )

Motor Vehicle Mfrs. Assn. of United States, Inc. v. State ... , 103 S. Ct. 2856 ( 1983 )

Burlington Truck Lines, Inc. v. United States , 83 S. Ct. 239 ( 1962 )

Kleppe v. Sierra Club , 96 S. Ct. 2718 ( 1976 )

Marsh v. Oregon Natural Resources Council , 109 S. Ct. 1851 ( 1989 )

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