George Johnson v. CRB (PUBLIC) ( 2020 )


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  • United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued March 10, 2020                 Decided August 7, 2020
    No. 19-1028
    GEORGE JOHNSON,
    APPELLANT
    v.
    COPYRIGHT ROYALTY BOARD AND LIBRARIAN OF CONGRESS,
    APPELLEES
    NASHVILLE SONGWRITERS ASSOCIATION INTERNATIONAL, ET
    AL.,
    INTERVENORS
    Consolidated with 19-1058, 19-1059, 19-1060, 19-1061,
    19-1062
    On Appeals from a Final Determination
    of the Copyright Royalty Board
    Andrew J. Pincus and Scott H. Angstreich argued the
    causes for appellants Amazon Digital Services LLC, Google
    LLC, Pandora Media, LLC, and Spotify USA Inc. With them
    on the briefs were Benjamin E. Marks, Gregory Silbert, Aaron
    2
    J. Curtis, Kenneth L. Steinthal, Jeffrey S. Bucholtz, Jason Blake
    Cunningham, Leslie V. Pope, and A. John P. Mancini.
    Harold Feld was on the brief for amicus curiae Public
    Knowledge in support of appellants Amazon Digital Services
    LLC, Google LLC, Pandora Media, LLC, and Spotify USA
    Inc.
    Kannon K. Shanmugam argued the cause for appellants
    National Music Publishers’ Association and Nashville
    Songwriters Association International. With him on the briefs
    were William T. Marks, Benjamin E. Moskowitz, Donald S.
    Zakarin, Frank P. Scibilia, Benjamin K. Semel, and Aaron J.
    Marks.
    George Johnson, appellant appearing pro se, argued the
    cause and filed the briefs on his own behalf.
    Jennifer L. Utrecht, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for appellees. With her on the brief was
    Joseph H. Hunt, Assistant Attorney General at the time the
    brief was filed, and Daniel Tenny, Attorney. Mark R. Freeman,
    Attorney, entered an appearance.
    Jacqueline C. Charlesworth was on the brief for amici
    curiae Songwriters of North America, et al. in support of
    appellees and affirmance.
    Kannon K. Shanmugam argued the cause for intervenors
    National Music Publishers’ Association and Nashville
    Songwriters Association International. With him on the briefs
    were William T. Marks, Benjamin E. Moskowitz, Donald S.
    Zakarin, Frank P. Scibilia, Benjamin K. Semel, and Aaron J.
    Marks.
    3
    Andrew J. Pincus argued the cause for intervenors
    Amazon Digital Services LLC, Google LLC, Pandora Media,
    LLC, and Spotify USA Inc. With him on the briefs were
    Benjamin E. Marks, Gregory Silbert, Aaron J. Curtis, Kenneth
    L. Steinthal, Jeffrey S. Bucholtz, Jason Blake Cunningham,
    Leslie V. Pope, and A. John P. Mancini.
    Harold Feld was on the brief for amicus curiae Public
    Knowledge in support of intervenors Amazon Digital Services
    LLC, Google LLC, Pandora Media, LLC, and Spotify USA
    Inc.
    Before: HENDERSON, GARLAND, and MILLETT, Circuit
    Judges.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge MILLETT.
    MILLETT, Circuit Judge: The Copyright Act requires the
    Copyright Royalty Board to undertake, every five years, the
    difficult task of setting the copyright royalty rates for the rights
    to reproduce and distribute musical works. See 17 U.S.C.
    § 115 (2012). These consolidated appeals deal with the royalty
    rates and terms established by the Board for the period
    January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2022. 84 Fed. Reg.
    1918 (Feb. 5, 2019).
    The appellants in this case are (i) four music streaming
    services—Amazon Digital Services LLC, Google LLC,
    Pandora Media, LLC, and Spotify USA Inc. (collectively,
    “Streaming Services”); (ii) the National Music Publishers’
    Association and the Nashville Songwriters Association
    International (collectively, “Copyright Owners”); and
    (iii) George Johnson, a songwriter proceeding pro se. They
    disagree on multiple fronts with the Board and with each other.
    As a result, many issues devolved into Goldilocks’ arguments,
    4
    with the Streaming Services protesting that the rates are too
    high; the Copyright Owners objecting that they are too low;
    and the Copyright Royalty Board saying they are just right.
    Having considered all of those arguments and the
    extensive administrative record, we affirm in part and vacate
    and remand to the Copyright Royalty Board in part because it
    failed to give adequate notice or to sufficiently explain critical
    aspects of its decisionmaking. Specifically, the Board failed to
    provide adequate notice of the rate structure it adopted, failed
    to explain its rejection of a past settlement agreement as a
    benchmark for rates going forward, and never identified the
    source of its asserted authority to substantively redefine a
    material term after publishing its Initial Determination.
    I
    A
    1
    The Copyright Act, 17 U.S.C. §§ 101 et seq., grants
    copyright owners certain legal rights in their copyrighted
    works. Those rights include the exclusive authority to
    reproduce, distribute, and perform the copyrighted work, and
    to allow others to do the same.
    Id. § 106. This
    case deals with two specific types of copyrightable
    works: musical works and sound recordings. A “musical
    work” refers to the notes, lyrics, embedded performance
    directions, and related material composed by the creator of a
    song. See SoundExchange, Inc. v. Librarian of Congress, 
    571 F.3d 1220
    , 1222 (D.C. Cir. 2009). Think the Gershwin
    Brothers composing “Embraceable You.”
    5
    A “sound recording,” on the other hand, is a performing
    artist’s particular recording of a musical work. See Music
    Choice v. Copyright Royalty Bd., 
    774 F.3d 1000
    , 1004 (D.C.
    Cir. 2014); see also 17 U.S.C. § 101; 
    SoundExchange, 571 F.3d at 1222
    . Think Billie Holiday’s stirring rendition of that jazz
    standard. BILLIE HOLIDAY, Embraceable You, on BODY AND
    SOUL (Verve Label Group 1957).
    How those copyrighted works get from the songwriters
    into your ears is rather complicated. For starters, while “almost
    always intermingled in a single song, [the musical work and
    sound recording] copyrights are legally distinct and may be
    owned and licensed separately.” Recording Indus. Ass’n of
    America, Inc. v. Librarian of Congress, 
    608 F.3d 861
    , 863
    (D.C. Cir. 2010).
    So when you stream a particular recording of a song from
    your interactive music streaming service of choice, the service
    must have first obtained permission to disseminate both the
    underlying musical work and the specific sound recording.
    Specifically, such streaming services must acquire licenses to
    make and distribute copies of the sound recording and the
    musical work, 17 U.S.C. § 106(1), (3), as well as to publicly
    perform those copyrighted works
    , id. § 106(4), (6).
    In the
    context of interactive streaming services, the Copyright
    Royalty Board has the authority to set certain royalty rates for
    musical works, but not for sound recordings.1
    1
    An “interactive service” is defined in Section 114 of the
    Copyright Act as a service that “enables a member of the public to
    receive a transmission of a program specially created for the
    recipient, or on request, a transmission of a particular sound
    recording[.]” 17 U.S.C. § 114(j)(7). Section 114 creates a
    compulsory licensing scheme for sound recordings, but that license
    does not extend to interactive services.
    Id. § 114(d). 6
    As relevant here, Section 115 of the Copyright Act creates
    a compulsory license, which is a statutorily conferred authority
    to use certain copyrighted material in a specified manner as a
    matter of law, without the actual consent of the copyright
    holder. See Independent Producers Group v. Library of
    Congress, 
    759 F.3d 100
    , 101 (D.C. Cir. 2014). The
    Section 115 license allows any person who satisfies certain
    conditions, including the payment of a royalty, to reproduce
    and to distribute phonorecords of a copyrighted musical work.
    17 U.S.C. § 115 (2012).2 This is commonly referred to as the
    “mechanical license.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918–1919. The
    Copyright Act charges the Copyright Royalty Board with
    setting the royalty rates and terms for the mechanical license.
    17 U.S.C. §§ 115, 801(b)(1) (2012).3
    Section 115’s compulsory license, however, does not
    include the right to publicly perform a musical work. See 17
    U.S.C. § 115 (2012).        Nor does Section 115 create a
    compulsory license for the sound recordings themselves. See
    id.; Recording 
    Indus., 608 F.3d at 863
    . Therefore, interactive
    2
    The term “phonorecords” refers to “material objects,” such as
    vinyl records, CDs, or other digital storage devices, “in which
    sounds, other than those accompanying a motion picture * * *, are
    fixed * * *, and from which the sounds can be perceived,
    reproduced, or otherwise communicated, either directly or with the
    aid of a machine or device.” 17 U.S.C. § 101.
    3
    The Orrin G. Hatch-Bob Goodlatte Music Modernization Act,
    Pub. L. No. 115–264, 132 Stat. 3676 (2018), among other things,
    amended Sections 115 and 801 of the Copyright Act. While some of
    these changes went into effect immediately, changes in the statutory
    provisions at issue in this case only govern ratemaking proceedings
    commenced after the law’s enactment on October 11, 2018. So they
    do not apply to this decision of the Copyright Royalty Board. Pub.
    L. No. 115-264, § 102(c), 132 Stat. at 3722, 3725.
    7
    streaming services seeking the right to make, distribute, or
    publicly perform a sound recording, and those seeking the right
    to publicly perform a musical work, must negotiate with and
    obtain permission from the appropriate rightsholders. See 17
    U.S.C. § 106(1), (3), (4), (6).
    2
    The Copyright Royalty Board is an “institutional entity in
    the Library of Congress” that “house[s] the Copyright Royalty
    Judges.” 37 C.F.R. § 301.1. The three Copyright Royalty
    Judges are responsible for presiding over royalty proceedings
    and for making “determinations and adjustments of reasonable
    terms and rates of royalty payments[.]” 17 U.S.C. § 801(a),
    (b)(1) (2012).
    The Copyright Royalty Board initiates ratemaking
    proceedings every five years to set the royalty rates and terms
    associated with the compulsory mechanical license. 17 U.S.C.
    § 804(b)(4). After the commencement of those proceedings,
    the Copyright Act gives interested parties an opportunity first
    to try and settle on the royalty rate.
    Id. § 803(b)(3). If
    no
    settlement emerges, the Board presides over a contested royalty
    ratemaking proceeding. See
    id. § 803. Any
    person that the
    Board determines has a “significant interest in the proceeding”
    may participate. See
    id. § 803(b)(2)(C). At
    the time the proceedings at issue here were initiated, the
    Copyright Act required that the Board prioritize four objectives
    when developing “reasonable [royalty] rates and terms” for the
    mechanical license. 17 U.S.C. § 115(c)(3)(C) (2012). Those
    objectives were:
    (A) * * * maximiz[ing] the availability of creative
    works to the public;
    8
    (B) * * * afford[ing] the copyright owner a fair return
    for his or her creative work and the copyright user a
    fair income under existing economic conditions;
    (C) * * * reflect[ing] the relative roles of the
    copyright owner and the copyright user in the product
    made available to the public with respect to relative
    creative contribution, technological contribution,
    capital investment, cost, risk, and contribution to the
    opening of new markets for creative expression and
    media for their communication;
    (D) * * * minimiz[ing] any disruptive impact on the
    structure of the industries involved and on generally
    prevailing industry practices.
    Id. § 801(b)(1).4 At
    the end of the ratemaking proceeding, the Board
    releases its initial determination setting the royalty rates and
    terms for the mechanical license for the licensing period at
    issue. See 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(1);
    id. § 803(c)(2)(B), (E)
    (describing this determination as the Board’s “initial
    determination”). That determination must be agreed upon by
    at least a majority of the three Copyright Royalty Judges. See
    id. § 803(a)(3); 37
    C.F.R. § 352.1.
    4
    The Orrin G. Hatch-Bob Goodlatte Music Modernization Act
    eliminated these four requirements for proceedings initiated after
    October 2018. For future ratemakings, the Board must instead
    “establish rates and terms that most clearly represent the rates and
    terms that would have been negotiated in the marketplace between a
    willing buyer and a willing seller.” See Pub. L. No. 115-264,
    § 102(a)(3), 132 Stat. at 3680.
    9
    Only in “exceptional cases” may the Board grant a
    participant’s request for rehearing after issuance of its initial
    determination. 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(2)(A). The Board also
    maintains jurisdiction to “issue an amendment to a written
    determination to correct any technical or clerical errors in the
    determination or to modify the terms, but not the rates, of
    royalty payments in response to unforeseen circumstances that
    would frustrate the proper implementation of such
    determination.”
    Id. § 803(c)(4). Once
    the Copyright Royalty Board issues its final
    determination, the Register of Copyrights may review the
    Board’s decision for legal error. 17 U.S.C. § 802(f)(1)(D).
    Within sixty days of the Board issuing its final determination,
    the Librarian of Congress must publish that determination in
    the Federal Register, along with any corrections identified by
    the Register of Copyrights. See
    id. §§ 802(f)(1)(D), 803(c)(6).
    B
    The Board’s two prior mechanical license ratemaking
    proceedings provide an important backdrop for understanding
    the disputes at hand.
    In 2006, the Board commenced its first mechanical license
    ratemaking proceeding, which is commonly referred to as
    Phonorecords I. See 74 Fed. Reg. 4510, 4513–4514 (Jan. 26,
    2009). The parties in Phonorecords I reached, and the Board
    approved, a settlement setting the royalty rates and terms for
    limited downloads, interactive streaming, and incidental
    phonorecord deliveries.
    Id. at 4514–4515.
    But the Board still
    had to adjudicate the rates and terms for the mechanical license
    as applied to permanent downloads and physical phonorecords.
    Id. at 4510. 10
    Five years later, the Board initiated Phonorecords II, its
    second mechanical license ratemaking proceeding. 78 Fed.
    Reg. 67,938, 67,939 (Nov. 13, 2013). There, the Board
    approved a settlement that carried forward the rates from
    Phonorecords I and set rates for certain new services
    introduced into the market, such as mixed service bundles and
    purchased content locker services.
    Id. at 67,939, 67,942; 84
    Fed. Reg. at 1919; see also 37 C.F.R. § 385.20–.26 (2014).5
    Under both Phonorecords I and II, the applicable royalty
    rates depended on the type of service provided. The
    Phonorecords II settlement involved ten categories of
    streaming-related offerings, such as standalone portable and
    non-portable subscription services, bundled subscription
    services,    free    non-subscription/advertisement-supported
    services, and varied locker services. 37 C.F.R. § 385.13(a)(1)–
    (5), 385.23(a)(1)–(5) (2014).
    The precise formula for calculating royalties for each
    category differed somewhat, but generally included the same
    four elements:
    First, for each category, the service providers calculated
    the greater of (i) the “revenue prong,” which was a percentage
    of the service provider’s revenue associated with the particular
    offering, and (ii) the “total content cost prong,” which was a
    percentage of the royalties paid by the service provider to
    5
    Mixed service bundles involve packaging a streaming music
    service with other products or services, like Amazon Prime, and
    offering them as a single product. See 37 C.F.R. § 385.2 (2019); 37
    C.F.R. § 385.21 (2014). Purchased content locker services allow a
    customer to stream a previously purchased song from a digital
    storage locker. See 37 C.F.R. § 385.2 (2019); 37 C.F.R. § 385.21
    (2014).
    11
    sound recording copyright holders. 37 C.F.R. § 385.12(b)(1),
    385.13(a)–(c), 385.22(b), 385.23(a)–(b) (2014).              The
    percentages used to calculate the total content cost prong varied
    depending on the type of product offered. See
    id. § 385.13(b)– (c),
    385.23(a). And for certain categories (such as the
    standalone non-portable subscription categories and the
    standalone portable subscription category), the total content
    cost prong was capped, while for others (such as the bundled
    subscription and the free non-subscription/advertisement-
    supported categories) it was not. Compare
    id. § 385.13(a)(1)– (3),
    with
    id. § 385.13(a)(4)–(5). Second,
    for each type of offering, the service provider
    would subtract from the greater of the revenue and total content
    cost prongs the royalties it had already paid for the right to
    publicly perform musical works through that offering. See 37
    C.F.R. § 385.12(b)(2), 385.22(b)(2) (2014).
    Third, the service provider would calculate the minimum
    mechanical license payment, also known as the mechanical
    floor, for each category of offering. See 37 C.F.R. § 385.13,
    385.23 (2014). The mechanical floor was usually determined
    by multiplying the number of subscribers-per-month by a
    specific monetary value. A few categories (such as the free
    non-subscription/advertisement-supported services category)
    did not have a mechanical floor at all. Compare
    id. § 385.13(a)(1)–(4), with
    id. § 385.13(a)(5).
    Fourth, 
    the service provider was required to pay, for each
    type of service offered, a royalty that was the greater of the
    amount calculated in step two or the mechanical floor
    calculated in step three. 37 C.F.R. § 385.12(b)(3) (2014).
    12
    C
    This brings us to the case at hand. On January 5, 2016, the
    Board initiated proceedings to determine the appropriate
    mechanical license royalty rates and terms for the January 1,
    2018 to December 31, 2022 period. 81 Fed. Reg. 255 (Jan. 5,
    2016). The parties reached a settlement of the mechanical
    license royalty rates and terms for physical phonorecords,
    permanent digital downloads, and ringtones, which we will
    refer to as the Subpart A settlement. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1920. On
    March 28, 2017, the Copyright Royalty Board adopted this
    partial settlement, over the objections of only George Johnson.
    Id. The parties were
    unable to agree, though, on the
    mechanical license rates and terms for the remaining
    interactive streaming offerings. As a result, the Board was
    tasked with adjudicating those rates and terms through
    adversarial proceedings.
    1
    The parties offered an array of competing proposals
    leading up to the five-week evidentiary hearing. See 84 Fed.
    Reg. at 1920, 1923–1925.
    Prior to the hearing, each of the Streaming Services
    advanced a somewhat different plan. See 84 Fed. Reg. at 1923.
    All four broadly sought to maintain the Phonorecords II rate
    structure, but proposed to either lower or eliminate the
    mechanical floor.
    Id. The Copyright Owners,
    for their part, proposed a unitary
    rate structure for all interactive streaming and limited
    13
    downloads. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1924, 1930–1931.6 Under their
    proposed royalty scheme, streaming services would pay the
    greater of (i) a per-play fee or (ii) a per-subscriber fee.
    Id. They also argued
    that the Board should continue applying the
    mechanical floor, but should modify the rate structure so that
    mechanical license royalties are no longer offset by the
    payment of performance royalties.
    Id. Finally, songwriter George
    Johnson proposed that all
    interactive streaming services be required to include a “Buy
    Button” that allowed customers listening to a song to
    voluntarily buy or purchase a song as a permanent paid digital
    download. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1924. He further proposed that
    between 80% and 84% of the proceeds from these purchases
    be divided evenly between the owners of the musical work and
    the owners of the sound recording.
    Id. After the evidentiary
    hearing had concluded and the
    evidentiary record closed, Google proffered an amended
    proposal that urged the Board to uncap the total content cost
    for all categories of offerings in conjunction with lowered
    royalty rates. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1924, 1930.
    2
    On January 27, 2018, the Copyright Royalty Board issued
    its Initial Determination regarding the appropriate royalties and
    terms for the 2018-2022 mechanical license. 84 Fed. Reg. at
    1918. Two of the three Copyright Royalty Judges, Chief Judge
    6
    A “limited download” is a download that is only available for
    a limited period of time or that can only be played a limited number
    of times. See 37 C.F.R. § 385.11 (2014); 37 C.F.R. § 385.11 (2013);
    see also 37 C.F.R. § 385.2 (2019).
    14
    Barnett and Judge Feder, approved the determination. Judge
    Strickler dissented.
    The Initial Determination retained the “All-In” feature that
    allows interactive streaming services to deduct performance
    royalties and retained the mechanical floor. J.A. 758–760. The
    Board explained that it retained the mechanical floor because
    it “appropriately balances the [streaming service providers’]
    need for the predictability of an All-In rate with publishers’ and
    songwriters’ need for a failsafe to ensure that mechanical
    royalties will not vanish[.]” J.A. 760.
    The Board, however, abandoned its prior use of different
    formulas and percentages to calculate the total content cost
    prong for different categories of offerings. Instead, it adopted
    a single, uncapped total content cost rate that applied to all
    categories of offerings.
    By pegging the mechanical license royalties to an
    uncapped total content cost prong, the Board sought to ensure
    that owners of musical works copyrights were neither
    undercompensated relative to sound recording rightsholders,
    nor harmed by the interactive streaming services’ revenue
    deferral strategies (such as student and family discount
    programs). Recall that the total content cost prong is calculated
    by taking a percentage of sound recording royalties. Therefore,
    as sound recording royalties increase, the mechanical license
    royalties generally will also increase, even if the interactive
    streaming services’ revenue is low as a result of their revenue
    deferral strategies (such as discounted student plans).
    The Board acknowledged that the sound recordings market
    is a complementary oligopoly and that the sound recording
    copyright holders can wield their considerable market power to
    extract excessive royalties. It also recognized that its new
    15
    structure could increase the mechanical license royalties paid
    by streaming service providers without necessarily altering the
    sound recording copyright owners’ ability to extract excessive
    profits.
    But the Board predicted that the sound recording copyright
    owners’ royalty rates would naturally decline in the course of
    their negotiations with interactive streaming services. This is
    so, the Board surmised, because the sound recording copyright
    owners would likely accept lower rates to “ensure[] the
    continued survival and growth of the music streaming
    industry.” J.A. 797. In other words, the only backstop
    identified by the Board majority was the prospect that sound
    recording copyright owners would want the existing interactive
    streaming services to survive rather than (for example)
    preferring to replace them with their own in-house streaming
    services. J.A. 798.
    Having adopted an overarching rate formula for
    calculating royalty payments, the Board next considered the
    specific rates to apply within that structure. In setting the rates,
    the Board relied primarily on what are known as “Shapley
    Analyses” provided by the parties’ experts. J.A. 797–799. The
    Shapley methodology is a game theory model that seeks to
    assign to each market player the average marginal value that
    the player contributes to the market. J.A. 786. This
    methodology first determines the costs that each player should
    recover, then divides the “surplus” among the players in
    proportion to the value of their contributions to the worth of the
    hypothetical bargain that would be struck. J.A. 786.
    Drawing from the parties’ competing Shapley Analyses,
    the Board decided to increase the mechanical license royalty
    rates paid by interactive streaming services. However, rather
    than adopt any one expert’s analysis wholesale, the Board drew
    16
    from multiple studies to construct a range of reasonableness for
    the royalty rates.
    That process yielded a zone of reasonableness between
    19.3% and 33.6% for the total content cost prong, and between
    11.8% and 18.3% for the revenue prong. J.A. 799. Based on
    “the totality of the evidence presented[,]” the Board settled on
    26.2% as the total content cost rate and 15.1% as the revenue
    rate. J.A. 799. Those rates were to be phased in gradually over
    five years. J.A. 812.
    In so ruling, the Board rejected the alternative proposals
    advanced by George Johnson. The Board concluded that it did
    not have the authority (in setting rates and terms) to require the
    streaming services to include a “buy button” alongside their
    offerings, and that there was no evidence in the record to
    support allocating 80 to 84 percent of the revenue created from
    such a button to the various copyright owners. J.A. 738–739.
    The Board also found that the mechanical license royalty
    rates should be set at zero in certain circumstances where user
    streams of copyrighted works produced no revenue for the
    streaming services. Namely, the rate was zeroed out for
    situations where the interactive streaming services provide
    (i) limited free trials to users (hoping to entice them into
    springing for a paid account); (ii) promotional plays of songs
    distributed freely by record companies for periods of time; and
    (iii) purchased content locker services where an individual who
    has already purchased a song may stream it from a digital
    locker at no additional revenue for the Streaming Services. In
    those limited circumstances, where the interactive streaming
    services draw no revenue from the play of copyrighted
    material, the Board found that they need “not pay mechanical
    musical works royalties.” J.A. 801. At the same time, the
    Board disallowed any “deduct[ion] [of] the costs of those
    17
    service offerings from service revenue, for purposes of
    calculating royalties payable on a percent of service revenue.”
    J.A. 801.
    Finally, the Board defined several terms that would govern
    licenses during the mechanical license royalty rate period, two
    of which are relevant here.
    First, the Board defined how “Service Revenue” would be
    calculated when interactive streaming services bundle their
    service with other subscription offerings. The Board defined
    “Service Revenue” in that context to be (i) the price paid by the
    consumer for the entire bundle, minus (ii) “the standalone
    published price for [consumers] for each of the [non-music
    streaming] component(s) of the Bundle,” (iii) provided that, if
    there is no published price for the standalone components, then
    the service providers “shall use the average standalone
    published price for [consumers] for the most closely
    comparable product or service in the U.S. or, if more than one
    comparable exists, the average of standalone prices for
    comparables.” J.A. 826–827.
    Second, the Board concluded that, in setting the
    mechanical floor, student and family plans should be counted
    differently for purposes of computing the number of
    subscribers to a streaming service. Reflecting how the
    interactive streaming services generally priced those plans
    relative to their standard subscription offerings, the Board
    deemed “Family Plans” to be the equivalent of 1.5 subscribers
    and “Student Accounts” to be the equivalent of 0.5 subscribers.
    See J.A. 817, 831.7
    7
    The Board states that it is adopting Spotify’s proposal, which
    would treat family plans as 1.5 subscribers. The Board then adds that
    18
    Copyright Royalty Judge Strickler dissented from the
    Initial Determination. Among other things, he objected to the
    Board’s adoption of a rate structure that “was only proposed
    after the hearing, when the record had already been closed.”
    J.A. 834–835. Judge Strickler further reasoned that uncapping
    the total content cost prong could imperil the existence of the
    interactive streaming services.      Specifically, the sound
    recording copyright owners “may decide to keep their rates
    high despite the increase in mechanical rates,” or they may
    simply create their own “in-house” streaming services and
    refuse to contract with the existing interactive streaming
    services at all. J.A. 837.
    3
    The Streaming Services moved for rehearing of the Initial
    Determination by the Board. See 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(2)(A)
    (authorizing the Board, “in exceptional cases, upon motion of
    a participant in a proceeding[,] * * * [to] order a rehearing,
    after” issuing an Initial Determination, “on such matters as the
    [Board] determine[s] to be appropriate”). The Streaming
    Services’ motion was limited to fixing clerical errors and
    clarifying existing ambiguities in the proposed regulatory
    terms appended to the Initial Determination.
    The Copyright Owners, for their part, disclaimed any
    intent to seek rehearing, but moved for “clarification or
    correction” of certain regulatory terms “to conform them to
    what appears to be the intent of the [Initial] Determination.”
    J.A. 103 (formatting modified). They purported to bring their
    motion under the Board’s general regulations governing
    these plans will be counted as “one subscriber[.]” J.A. 817. That
    appears to be a typographical error. See J.A. 817, 831.
    19
    motions. See 37 C.F.R. § 303.3–.4 (formerly codified at 37
    C.F.R. § 350.3–.4).
    The Copyright Owners’ clarification motion argued,
    among other things, that the definition of Service Revenue as
    applied to bundled offering should be reworked. They argued
    that defining the revenue as the total price of the bundle, minus
    the standalone published prices for the non-streaming offerings
    in the bundle, undervalued the revenue created by the
    streaming offerings. To illustrate, the Copyright Owners
    (quoting a different Board ruling) reasoned that, “[i]f a vendor
    offered an ice cream cone * * * for $1.00, but offered two ice
    cream cones for $1.06, it would be absurd to conclude that the
    true market price of an ice cream cone is the incremental six
    cents.” J.A. 114 (quoting 81 Fed. Reg. 26,316, 26,382 (May 2,
    2016)).
    So instead, the Copyright Owners proposed that “Service
    Revenue” from bundled offerings be defined as “the standalone
    price of the [streaming] offering (or comparables).” They
    added that, in their view, that new definition would be “more
    consistent with the [Board’s] reasoning” in the Initial
    Determination. J.A. 115.
    The Streaming Services objected to the Copyright
    Owners’ styling of their motion as something other than a
    motion for rehearing, describing it as an attempt “to skirt the
    standard governing motions for rehearing—a standard that the
    Copyright Owners have not even attempted to meet.”
    J.A. 1251 (internal quotation marks omitted). The Streaming
    Services also objected that the Copyright Owners had not
    previously proposed a definition of “Service Revenue” from
    bundled offerings, and that their “late-proposed” definition was
    unsupported by the record. J.A. 1266 (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    20
    In October 2018, the Board issued an order “granting in
    part and denying in part motions for rehearing.” J.A. 1250–
    1271 (formatting modified). The order concluded that neither
    party had met the “exceptional standard for granting rehearing
    motions.” J.A. 1251 (stating that the moving parties had failed
    to present “even a prima facie case for rehearing under the
    applicable standard”). The Board explained that it nevertheless
    found it “appropriate * * * to resolve the issues that the parties
    ha[d] raised[.]” J.A. 1251. The Board added that, to the extent
    such resolution “could be considered a rehearing under 17
    U.S.C. § 803(c)(2),” it “resolve[d] [the] motions on the papers
    without oral argument.” J.A. 1251.
    Regarding the definition of “Service Revenue” for bundled
    offerings, the Board noted that “[n]either party presented
    evidence adequate to support the approach it advocates” in its
    post-determination filing. J.A. 1266. (A curious statement
    since the Streaming Services were simply defending the
    Board’s chosen method.) Noting that the Streaming Services
    were “the party in possession of the relevant information,” the
    Board concluded that they “bore the burden of providing
    evidence that might mitigate the * * * problem inherent in
    bundling.” J.A. 1266–1267 (internal quotation marks omitted).
    Because the Streaming Services had failed that task, the Board,
    “by default,” ruled that it “must adopt an approach to valuing
    bundled revenue that is in line with what the Copyright Owners
    have proposed.” J.A. 1267 (formatting modified). As a result,
    the Board discarded the formula in the Initial Determination
    and ruled, instead, that streaming service providers “will use
    their own standalone price (or comparable) for the music
    component (not to exceed the value of the entire bundle) when
    allocating bundled revenue.” J.A. 1267.
    21
    4
    On November 5, 2018, the Board issued its Final
    Determination. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1963. Three months later, after
    review by the Register of Copyrights, a partially redacted
    version of the Final Determination was published in the Federal
    Register.
    Id. at 1918–2036.
    The Board’s Final Determination closely tracked the
    Initial Determination. It adopted the same rate structure and
    rate percentages set forth in the earlier rulemaking.
    Specifically, the Board retained the mechanical floor, but
    uncapped the total content cost prong for all categories of
    offerings. See 84 Fed. Reg. at 1934–1935. And it stood by its
    decision to phase in over five years, for all categories, a 15.1%
    revenue rate and a 26.2% total content cost rate.
    Id. at 1960.
    The Board also maintained the counting of family plans as the
    equivalent of 1.5 subscribers and student accounts as the
    equivalent of 0.5 subscribers when calculating the mechanical
    floor.
    Id. at 1962.
    As relevant here, the Final Determination deviated from
    the Initial Determination in one key respect. Consistent with
    the Board’s order at the rehearing stage, the Final
    Determination redefined “Service Revenue” from bundled
    offerings as the lesser of (i) the revenue of the bundle, and
    (ii) the aggregate of standalone prices for the licensed music
    products included in the bundle. 84 Fed. Reg. at 2034.
    The Final Determination made the new rates and terms
    effective from January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2022. 84
    Fed. Reg. at 1918. That was the same effective period
    proposed by the Board in its notice of the ratemaking
    proceeding in January 2016 and adopted by each participant in
    its Proposed Findings of Fact and Proposed Conclusions of
    22
    Law.
    Id. (noting that 17
    U.S.C. § 115(c)(3) (2012) permits the
    parties to agree to an effective rate period); see 17 U.S.C.
    § 803(d)(2)(B) (permitting the same).
    The Streaming Services, the Copyright Owners, and
    George Johnson timely appealed the Board’s Final
    Determination. This court consolidated those appeals.
    II
    We have jurisdiction to review the Board’s Final
    Determination under 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(1). In conducting our
    review, we apply the same standards set forth in the
    Administrative Procedure Act.
    Id. § 803(d)(3) (cross-
    referencing 5 U.S.C. § 706). That means that we will set aside
    the Final Determination “only if it is arbitrary, capricious, an
    abuse of discretion, or otherwise not in accordance with law, or
    if the facts relied upon by the agency have no basis in the
    record.” Independent Producers Group v. Librarian of
    Congress, 
    792 F.3d 132
    , 136 (D.C. Cir. 2015) (internal
    quotation marks omitted).
    III
    The Streaming Services, Copyright Owners, and George
    Johnson challenge numerous aspects of the Copyright Royalty
    Board’s Final Determination. First, the Streaming Services
    argue that the Board’s decision impermissibly applies
    retroactively. Second, the Streaming Services challenge the
    Board’s rate structure and the specific rates applicable under
    that structure. Third, the Streaming Services and the Copyright
    Owners each object to the Board’s definition of certain terms.
    Finally, George Johnson challenges the Board’s acceptance of
    the Subpart A settlement, as well as its adoption of the final
    rate structure.
    23
    We reject the Streaming Services’ retroactivity objection
    and the challenges brought by the Copyright Owners and
    George Johnson. But we agree with the Streaming Services
    that the Board failed to provide adequate notice of the final rate
    structure, failed to reasonably explain its rejection of the
    Phonorecords II settlement as a benchmark, and failed to
    identify under what authority it substantively redefined a term
    after publishing its Initial Determination. For those reasons,
    we vacate and remand the Final Determination for further
    proceedings consistent with this opinion.
    A
    The Streaming Services argue that the Board overshot its
    regulatory authority by giving its royalty rates and terms
    retroactive effect. Streaming Services Br. 63–69.8 Because
    there is nothing retroactive about the Board’s rate
    determination, that challenge fails.
    Section 115(c)(3)(C) of Title 17 provides that the Board’s
    proceedings:
    [S]hall determine reasonable rates and terms of
    royalty payments * * * during the period beginning
    with the effective date of such rates and terms, but not
    earlier than January 1 of the second year following the
    year in which the petition requesting the proceeding is
    filed, and ending on the effective date of successor
    rates and terms, or such other period as the parties may
    agree.
    8
    Spotify has not joined this argument. Streaming Services
    Reply Br. 31 n.13. So for purposes of the retroactivity portion of this
    opinion only, the “Streaming Services” appellation excludes Spotify.
    24
    17 U.S.C. § 115(c)(3)(C) (2012).           Section 803(d)(2)(B)
    provides consistent (and more detailed) guidance regarding the
    effective dates of rates and terms. It provides in relevant part:
    In cases where rates and terms have not, prior to the
    inception of an activity, been established for that
    particular activity under the relevant license, such
    rates and terms shall be retroactive to the inception of
    activity under the relevant license covered by such
    rates and terms. In other cases where rates and terms
    do not expire on a specified date, successor rates and
    terms shall take effect on the first day of the second
    month that begins after the publication of the
    determination of the [Board] in the Federal Register,
    except as otherwise provided * * * by the [Board], or
    as agreed by the participants in [the] proceeding that
    would be bound by the rates and terms.
    17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B).
    That is all a long way of saying that when, as here, prior
    royalty rates do not have a predetermined end date,
    Section 803(d)(2)(B) establishes a default effective date for
    new rates of “the first day of the second month that begins after
    the publication of the [Final Determination] of the [Board] in
    the Federal Register[.]” 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B).
    But both Sections 803 and 115 expressly authorize the
    participants in a ratemaking proceeding to agree to a different
    effective date for new rates and terms and allow the Board to
    adopt the participants agreed-upon effective dates. See 17
    U.S.C. § 115(c)(3)(C) (2012) (effective date can be “such other
    period as the parties may agree”); 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B)
    (effective date can be the date “as agreed by the participants in
    25
    [the] proceeding that would be bound by the rates and terms”).
    That is exactly what happened here.
    In its Final Determination, the Board made its new rates
    “effective during the rate period January 1, 2018, through
    December 31, 2022[.]” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918. That effective
    date was not the default date of April 1, 2019 (that is, the first
    day of the second month that began after publication of the
    Final Determination in the Federal Register on February 5,
    2019). See 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B); 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918.
    Instead, the Board selected that effective date because it
    was the parties’ long-agreed-upon start date. 84 Fed. Reg. at
    1918; see
    id. (noting that 17
    U.S.C. § 115(c)(3) (2012) permits
    the parties to agree to an effective rate period); see also 17
    U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B) (permitting the same). As evidence, the
    Board pointed out that: (i) it had proposed that effective rate
    period in its January 2016 notice of the ratemaking proceeding;
    (ii) the docket for the ratemaking proceeding had consistently
    included that same effective rate period; and (iii) “each party
    included in its Proposed Findings of Fact and Proposed
    Conclusions of Law a designation of” that same rate period,
    including specifically the January 1, 2018 effective date. 84
    Fed. Reg. at 1918 (emphasis added).9
    9
    While Section 803(d)(2)(B) also permits the Board itself to
    “otherwise provide[]” for an effective rate period, the Board never
    mentioned that authority in its Final Determination as a basis for its
    actions. So while the Board now attempts to claim that authority, we
    may not sustain its action on that late-breaking, extra-record ground.
    See, e.g., Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the Univ.
    of Cal., 
    140 S. Ct. 1891
    , 1907 (2020) (“It is a foundational principle
    of administrative law that judicial review of agency action is limited
    26
    The Streaming Services argue that the Board’s adoption of
    the rate period starting on January 1, 2018 was unlawful for
    two sets of reasons. Neither is persuasive.
    1
    To start, the Streaming Services argue that they never
    actually agreed to an effective rate period of January 1, 2018
    through December 31, 2022. The record says otherwise.
    The Streaming Services do not dispute the Board’s
    statement in the Final Determination that “each party included
    in its Proposed Findings of Fact and Proposed Conclusions of
    Law a designation of the rate period as January 1, 2018,
    through December 31, 2022.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918. Nor could
    they. The Streaming Services’ filings throughout the course of
    the ratemaking proceeding, not just their own proposed rates
    and terms, consistently used that January 1, 2018 effective date.
    See, e.g., J.A. 50 (“Amazon * * * proposes the following rates
    and terms for making and distributing phonorecords under the
    statutory license provided by 17 U.S.C. § 115 during the period
    January 1, 2018 through December 31, 2022); see also J.A. 42,
    44, 46, 48, 51, 55, 651–652, 670, 682, 710.
    In the face of those express endorsements of the January 1,
    2018 start date, all the Streaming Services can point to is a
    single sentence in their nearly six-hundred-page, post-trial
    reply brief. Streaming Services Br. 68–69 (citing J.A. 711).
    That was too little, too late. For starters, this court
    “generally will not consider an argument that was not raised
    before the agency at the time appropriate under its practice.”
    to the grounds that the agency invoked when it took the action.”)
    (internal quotation marks omitted).
    27
    BNSF Ry. Co. v. Surface Transp. Bd., 
    453 F.3d 473
    , 479 (D.C.
    Cir. 2006) (internal quotation marks omitted). It is doubtful
    that a reply brief is the appropriate time or place to disavow an
    agreement reaffirmed repeatedly during the course of
    ratemaking proceedings. See 37 C.F.R. § 351.14(b) (“A party
    waives any objection to a provision in the determination unless
    the provision conflicts with a proposed finding of fact or
    conclusion of law filed by the party.”).
    On top of that, the meaning of the cited sentence in the
    Streaming Services’ reply brief is not even clear. The reply
    brief, in fact, states that “January 1, 2018 would be a proper
    effective date for rates to be determined in this proceeding[.]”
    J.A. 711.
    The sentence then goes on to “note” the Streaming
    Services’ assumption that operation of that agreed-upon date
    presupposes a November 2017 publication of the Board’s final
    determination because that would make the effective date
    coincide with the statutory default rule. J.A. 711 (“[T]he
    Services note that while January 1, 2018 would be a proper
    effective date for rates to be determined in this proceeding, it
    will actually be the effective date only if the Judges publish
    their determination in the Federal Register in November of
    2017. See 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(B) (noting that ‘successor
    rates and terms shall take effect on the first day of the second
    month that begins after the publication of the determination of
    the Copyright Royalty Judges in the Federal Register’ and that
    ‘the rates and terms, to the extent applicable, shall remain in
    effect until such successor rates and terms become
    effective.’).”).
    Nothing in that passing comment argues or analyzes the
    parties’ independent authority to agree to an effective period
    different from the default start date. Nor does it indicate that
    28
    the Streaming Services’ longstanding agreement with the
    prospectively announced rate period is now suddenly
    contingent on publication by a certain date—a publication date
    that would render the agreed-upon date redundant of the
    statute’s default effective date.
    Critically, months later when the Initial Determination
    included the same effective dates, J.A. 725, which was
    published after those effective dates began, the Streaming
    Services made no objection to those dates or otherwise
    communicated that they were withdrawing their prior
    agreement with the January 1, 2018 start date.
    The Board, in short, was well within its rights to take the
    Streaming Services (and the other parties) at their word as to
    the long-recognized and oft-repeated agreement to a January 1,
    2018 effective date.
    2
    The Streaming Services argue, in the alternative, that
    Section 803(d)(2)(B)’s language allowing an agreed-upon start
    date does not apply if enforcing that agreement would give the
    rates and terms retroactive effect. They point out that the
    Copyright Act mandates the retroactive effect of new rates only
    in limited circumstances. For example, the first sentence of
    Section 803(d)(2)(B) requires that new rates be retroactive
    “where rates and terms have not, prior to the inception of any
    activity, been established for that particular activity under the
    relevant     license[.]”       17     U.S.C.     § 803(d)(2)(B).
    Section 803(d)(2)(A) similarly requires retroactive rates if the
    prior rates have a fixed expiration date that predates the
    Board’s determination of new rates. 17 U.S.C. § 803(d)(2)(A).
    Neither provision applies here because (i) prior rates existed
    for the relevant activities by virtue of the Phonorecords II
    29
    settlement, and (ii) those rates did not have a fixed expiration
    date. Streaming Services Reply Br. 31.
    As the Streaming Services’ argument goes, because the
    Copyright Act mandates retroactive effect of rates only in
    specified circumstances, the statute’s general grant of authority
    to the Board (in other cases) to adopt an effective date to which
    the parties agreed does not include the ability to adopt agreed-
    upon rates that would have retroactive effect. Streaming
    Services Reply Br. 31. Especially because “a statutory grant of
    legislative rulemaking authority will not * * * be understood to
    encompass the power to promulgate retroactive rules unless
    that power is conveyed by Congress in express terms.”
    Streaming Services Br. 63 (quoting Bowen v. Georgetown
    Univ. Hosp., 
    488 U.S. 204
    , 208 (1988)).
    The Streaming Services also point to the Register of
    Copyrights’ prior statement that “[n]either the [Board] nor the
    participants [in a rate setting proceeding] have the power to
    engage in retroactive rate setting” for successor rates and terms.
    74 Fed. Reg. 4537, 4542 (Jan. 26, 2009) (setting aside Board’s
    adoption of retroactive rate setting). The Board, they stress, is
    bound to follow “prior determinations and interpretations
    of * * * the Register of Copyrights[.]” 17 U.S.C. § 803(a)(1);
    Independent Producers 
    Group, 792 F.3d at 137
    & n.3.
    Those are thoughtful arguments. But they do nothing to
    advance the ball for the Streaming Services. Even assuming
    without deciding that Section 803(d)(2)(B) does not authorize
    agreed-upon “retroactive” rate setting, that is not at all what the
    Board and the participants did here.
    Recall that the Board announced in January 2016 that this
    rate setting proceeding was “to determine reasonable rates and
    terms for making and distributing phonorecords for the period
    30
    beginning January 1, 2018, and ending December 31, 2022.”
    81 Fed. Reg. at 255–256. All participants and the Board then
    consistently repeated that prospective effective date as they
    wound their way through the ratemaking proceeding. See, e.g.,
    J.A. 42, 44, 46, 48, 50 51, 55, 651–652, 670, 682, 710. The
    start date, in other words, was set prospectively, not
    retroactively. The Streaming Services signed off. It is as
    simple as that.
    Of course, the Board’s Final Determination was not
    published in the Federal Register until February 5, 2019, which
    was more than a year after the effective rate period actually
    began on January 1, 2018. But given the Board’s prospective
    announcement of the effective rate period in 2016 and the
    parties’ continuous agreement over the ensuing years to those
    dates, what was done here is a far cry from retroactive rate
    setting. It bears no resemblance to cases like Bowen, where the
    Secretary of Health and Human Services published in February
    1984 a proposal to reissue an invalidated wage-index rule and,
    without advance notice to the affected parties, made it
    “retroactive to July 1, 
    1981.” 488 U.S. at 207
    ; see also
    Landgraf v. USI Film Products, 
    511 U.S. 244
    , 272 (1994)
    (describing Bowen as “a paradigmatic case of retroactivity in
    which a federal agency sought to recoup, under cost limit
    regulations issued in 1984, funds that had been paid to hospitals
    for services rendered earlier”).
    Relying on our decision in Treasure State Resources
    Industry Association v. EPA, 
    805 F.3d 300
    , 305 (D.C. Cir.
    2015), the Streaming Services argue that the Board’s Final
    Determination applied the new rates and terms retroactively
    because it attached “new legal consequences to [transactions]
    completed before its enactment.” Streaming Services Reply
    Br. 32 (quoting Treasure 
    State, 805 F.3d at 305
    ).
    31
    While it is undoubtedly quite relevant in deciding whether
    provisions are retroactive to determine whether they attach new
    legal consequences to events completed before their enactment,
    that “is far from the end of the story.” Treasure 
    State, 805 F.3d at 305
    . A provision “does not operate retrospectively merely
    because it is applied in a case arising from conduct antedating
    [its] enactment.”
    Id. (formatting modified; quoting
    Landgraf,
    511 U.S. at 269
    –270). Instead, considerations of “fair notice,
    reasonable reliance, and settled expectations” of the parties
    also carry weight.
    Id. (internal quotation marks
    omitted).
    None of those considerations put the Board’s
    determination in the retroactive camp. When the Board
    announced in 2016 that it would be conducting a rate-setting
    proceeding to set different rates and terms for January 1, 2018
    through December 31, 2022, it gave the Streaming Services
    “ample public notice of the impending change in” rates, and—
    at minimum—signaled “the prospect of” different rates starting
    on January 1, 2018, Treasure 
    State, 805 F.3d at 306
    (emphasis
    added); see Columbia Gas Transmission Corp. v. FERC, 
    895 F.2d 791
    , 796–797 (D.C. Cir. 1990) (Agency rates are not
    “retroactive” where the agency “itself places parties on
    notice * * * that the rates they will be paying are subject to
    retroactive adjustment at a later date.”).
    The Board’s issuance of its Initial Determination in
    January 2018—within weeks of the agreed-upon January 1,
    2018 effective date—provided still more and quite precise
    notice of the rates that were intended to govern. Add in the
    parties’ repeated confirmation of that effective rate period
    throughout the entire proceedings, long before the rate period
    began, and the record leaves no ground for labeling that long-
    forewarned effective rate period an exercise in retroactive
    ratemaking. Nor have the Streaming Services explained how,
    given that enduring agreement, they had any reasonable
    32
    reliance interest in continuing the old rates into the period that
    everyone had stipulated all along would be governed by the
    new rates.
    For the same reasons, the Streaming Services’ citation to a
    prior determination of the Librarian of Congress fails. See 74
    Fed. Reg. at 4542. The referenced rate-setting proceeding did
    not involve, as here, a prospective announcement of the
    effective rate period. See 71 Fed. Reg. 1453, 1453–1454 (Jan.
    9, 2006) (Board’s notice announcing ratemaking proceeding
    that does not include a proposed effective date).
    In sum, Section 803(d)(2)(B) authorized the Board to do
    what it did here: Prospectively announce and stick with an
    effective rate period to which the parties had repeatedly and
    expressly agreed in writing throughout the proceedings. That
    the final rule was not published in the Federal Register until a
    year later does not amount to retroactive rate setting that either
    surprised the Streaming Services (who had long agreed to the
    pre-established start date) or disrupted any reasonable reliance
    interests.
    B
    The Copyright Royalty Board’s Final Determination
    adopted a rate structure for computing the mechanical license
    that uncapped the total content cost prong for every category of
    streaming service offered, while simultaneously increasing
    both the total content cost and revenue rates. With no cap in
    place, the Board’s decision removed the only structural
    limitation on how high the total content cost (which is pegged
    to unregulated sound recording royalties) can climb.
    The Streaming Services argue that, in adopting that rate
    structure, (i) the Board violated their procedural right to fair
    33
    notice by choosing a structure that was not advanced by any
    party; and (ii) the Board’s decision both to uncap the total
    content cost prong and to increase the percentages used to
    calculate the revenue prong and total content cost prongs were
    arbitrary and capricious.
    The Streaming Services are correct that the Board failed to
    provide adequate notice of the drastically modified rate
    structure it ultimately adopted. We also hold that the Board did
    not provide a reasoned explanation for its refusal to treat the
    Phonorecords II settlement as a benchmark when setting the
    total content cost and revenue rates. For those reasons, we
    vacate and remand the Board’s adopted rate structure and
    percentages for further proceedings consistent with this
    opinion.
    1
    An agency “setting a matter for hearing [must] provide
    parties with adequate notice of the issues that [will] be
    considered, and ultimately resolved, at that hearing.”
    Wallaesa v. Federal Aviation Admin., 
    824 F.3d 1071
    , 1083
    (D.C. Cir. 2016) (quoting Public Serv. Comm’n of Ky. v.
    FERC, 
    397 F.3d 1004
    , 1012 (D.C. Cir. 2005)). This ensures
    that agencies provide a fair process in which each party is able
    “to present [its] case or defense * * *, to submit rebuttal
    evidence, and to conduct such cross-examination as may be
    required for a full and true disclosure of the facts” that bear on
    the agency’s decision and choices. See 5 U.S.C. § 556(d).
    While the Streaming Services knew, at the 50,000-foot
    level, that the Board would be deciding the royalty rates and
    terms to govern the mechanical license, they had no fair notice
    that the Copyright Royalty Board would take the dramatic step
    of uncapping the total content cost prong for every category of
    34
    service offering, let alone pair that with significant increases in
    the total content cost and revenue prongs. As a result, the
    Streaming Services argue, they “had no notice or opportunity
    to present evidence” about that rate structure because “no party
    advocated [it] during or before the hearing.” Streaming
    Services Br. 26–27.
    We agree. There is no dispute that before and throughout
    the evidentiary hearing, no party had proposed or even hinted
    at the structure the Board ultimately adopted—an uncapped
    total cost content prong combined with significantly increased
    rates. See Streaming Services Br. 17; Board Br. 43–44;
    Copyright Owners Intervenor Br. 10–11; see also Oral Arg.
    Tr. 55:7–60:19, 68:21–69:5, 75:4–13. And the Board, itself,
    offered no hint of such a dramatic change in course from prior
    decisions. So the Streaming Services had no notice that they
    needed to defend against and create a record addressing such a
    significant, and significantly adverse, overhaul of the
    mechanical license royalty scheme.
    This is no mere formality. Interested parties’ ability to
    provide evidence and argument bearing on the essential
    components and contours of the Board’s ultimate decision not
    only protects the parties’ interests, it also helps ensure that the
    Board’s ultimate decision is well-reasoned and grounded in
    substantial evidence. See Settling Devotional Claimants v.
    Copyright Royalty Bd., 
    797 F.3d 1106
    , 1121 (D.C. Cir. 2015)
    (The lack of record support for the Copyright Royalty Board’s
    approach was “ma[de] * * * worse” by the fact that the
    approach was “first presented in the * * * determination and
    not advanced by any participant.”) (quoting Intercollegiate
    Broad. Sys., Inc. v. Copyright Royalty Bd., 
    571 F.3d 69
    , 87
    (D.C. Cir. 2009)). That vetting by the parties did not occur here
    because the Streaming Services were procedurally blindsided.
    35
    That is not to say that the Board is strictly limited to
    choosing from among the proposals set forth by the parties.
    Agencies have the authority to modify proposals set forth by
    the parties, or to suggest models of their own. See
    SoundExchange, Inc. v. Copyright Royalty Bd., 
    904 F.3d 41
    ,
    50–51, 57 (D.C. Cir. 2018) (upholding Copyright Royalty
    Board’s decision to modify a party’s proposed rates in light of
    its interpretation of Section 114 of the Copyright Act);
    Association of American Publishers, Inc. v. Governors of
    USPS, 
    485 F.2d 768
    , 773 (D.C. Cir. 1973). Some degree of
    deviation and combination is permissible.
    But the ultimate proposal adopted by the Board has to be
    within a reasonable range of contemplated outcomes. Here it
    was not.
    The Board’s decision went far beyond modifying or
    piecing together a rate structure, the economic and policy
    consequences of which had already been explored and
    developed by the parties in the record. Instead, the Board’s
    decision deviated substantially and unforeseeably from the
    parties’ pre-hearing proposals, the arguments made at the
    evidentiary hearing, and the preexisting rate structures. The
    end result was a rate structure that could significantly increase
    costs for the Streaming Services, and that eliminated the prior
    structural protection that braced the streaming services against
    unregulated increases in sound recording royalties. If the
    Board wanted to implement such an extreme change in the rate
    structure, it was duty bound to give a heads up to the parties.
    The Copyright Owners argue that the Streaming Services
    nevertheless had adequate notice because they received “notice
    of every component of the Board’s final structure[.]”
    Copyright Owners Intervenor Br. 10. In particular, the final
    rate structure adopted by the Board for all categories was
    36
    virtually identical to the rate structure for the single “bundled
    subscriptions” category prior to Phonorecords III, see 37
    C.F.R. § 385.13(a)(4) (2013), which Amazon’s filings below
    proposed to maintain to that limited extent, J.A. 66–67.
    But the fact that some of the Streaming Services’ proposals
    contemplated continued use of an uncapped total content cost
    prong for a small number of preexisting categories does not
    mean they anticipated that the Board would uncap the total
    content cost prong across the board. That is quite different.
    Prior to issuance of the Final Determination, the vast majority
    of the categories of offerings were capped. See Oral Arg. Tr.
    57:7–23 (Board explaining that, previously, only two out of ten
    categories were uncapped).
    Uncapping the total content cost prong across all
    categories leaves the Streaming Services exposed to potentially
    large hikes in the mechanical license royalties they must pay.
    That is because the total content cost prong is calculated by
    taking a percentage of the royalties paid to sound recording
    rightsholders. See 84 Fed. Reg. at 1963 n.165 (Strickler
    Dissent). As the Board acknowledges, sound recording
    rightsholders have considerable market power vis-à-vis
    interactive streaming service providers, and they have
    leveraged that power to extract excessive royalties. See
    Id. at 1934
    n.75 (“[T]he [interactive streaming] services
    are * * *exposed to the labels’ market power. Record
    companies could, if they so chose, put th[ose] [s]ervices out of
    business entirely.”);
    id. at 1952–1953
    (explaining that, by
    virtue of their oligopoly power, the sound recording copyright
    holders have extracted “inflated” royalties relative to what the
    Shapley Analyses would predict). By eliminating any cap on
    the total content cost prongs, the Final Determination yokes the
    mechanical license royalties to the sound recording
    rightsholders’ unchecked market power.
    37
    Worse still, the Board not only stripped away the total
    content cost caps, but also significantly hiked both the revenue
    rate and the total content cost rates the streaming services
    would have to pay. The Final Determination increased the
    revenue rate by 44% relative to the preexisting rates—that is,
    from 10.5% (for most but not all categories) to 15.1%. See 84
    Fed. Reg. at 1960.10 The Board also raised the total content
    cost rate to 26.2%.
    Id. at 1954, 1960.
    That rate previously fell
    between approximately 17% and 22%. See 37 C.F.R.
    § 385.13(b)–(c), 385.23(a) (2014). Therefore, the Streaming
    Services were not only deprived of the opportunity to voice
    their objections to a completely uncapped total content cost
    prong, they were also given no opportunity to address the
    interplay between that rate structure and the increased revenue
    and total content cost rates.
    In defense of the Board’s decision, the Copyright Owners
    point to Google’s post-hearing proposal that advocated for a
    rate structure that included a completely uncapped total content
    cost prong. J.A. 678–679, 699 (Google’s Amended Proposed
    Finding of Fact). There are two problems with that argument.
    First, Google conditioned its proposed adoption of an
    uncapped total content cost prong on the simultaneous adoption
    of much lower rates than those adopted by the Board. J.A. 483
    (Google confirming that its amended proposed rate structure
    “works but only with” the specific rates it proposed); see also
    84 Fed. Reg. at 1981 (Google’s Amended Proposal advanced a
    “10.5% of net service revenue [rate] and an uncapped 15[%]
    10
    Some of the categories had slightly higher revenue rates. See
    37 C.F.R. § 385.23(a)(1), (2), (4), (5) (2014). The Board, however,
    generally treats 10.5% as the “prevailing headline rate[.]” 84 Fed.
    Reg. at 1952; see
    id. at 1960
    (describing the new revenue rate as a
    44% increase over the “current headline rate”).
    38
    [total content cost] component.”). Google specifically warned
    that pairing the uncapped structure with higher rates would be
    intolerable. J.A. 483.
    Second, Google’s package was proposed for the very first
    time after the evidentiary record was closed. 84 Fed. Reg. at
    1935 n.79. So the other parties never had a chance to submit
    evidence regarding the problems with Google’s proposal, let
    alone the viability of the Board’s pairing of uncapped total
    content costs with significantly increased total content cost and
    revenue rates.
    In sum, because the Copyright Royalty Board failed to
    provide fair notice of the rate structure it adopted, that aspect
    of its decision must be vacated and remanded for further
    proceedings. If the Board wishes to pursue its novel rate
    structure, it will need to reopen the evidentiary record.
    2
    The Streaming Services separately challenge the uncapped
    rate structure as arbitrary and capricious. In particular, they
    argue that the rate structure formulated by the Copyright
    Royalty Board failed to account for the sound recordings
    rightsholders’ market power. Streaming Services Br. 28–32,
    34. They also object that the Board failed to provide a
    “satisfactory explanation,” or root in substantial evidence, its
    conclusion that an increase in mechanical license royalties
    would lead to a decrease in sound recording royalties.
    Streaming Services Br. 33–36.
    Because we have vacated the rate structure devised by the
    Board for lack of notice, we need not address these arguments.
    Should the Board on remand provide notice that it is again
    39
    contemplating such a scheme, the Streaming Services can
    present their concerns to the Board in the first instance.
    3
    Apart from their challenges to the uncapped rate structure,
    the Streaming Services separately leveled objections to the
    particular percentages adopted by the Copyright Royalty Board
    to calculate the revenue and total content cost prongs.
    Specifically, the Streaming Services object to the Board’s
    reliance on conclusions drawn from multiple different expert
    analyses and its rejection of the Phonorecords II and Subpart A
    settlements as rate benchmarks. They further argue that the
    Board’s conclusions with respect to the four statutory
    objectives were unreasoned and unsupported by substantial
    evidence.
    Our “[r]eview of administratively determined rates is
    ‘particularly deferential’ because of their ‘highly technical’
    nature.” Intercollegiate Broad. Sys. v. Copyright Royalty Bd.,
    
    574 F.3d 748
    , 755 (D.C. Cir. 2009) (quoting East Ky. Power
    Coop. v. FERC, 
    489 F.3d 1299
    , 1306 (D.C. Cir. 2007)). Taken
    in that light, the Streaming Services’ first argument fails, but
    the second succeeds. The third argument is largely bound up
    in the remand and therefore, with one exception, will not be
    resolved here.
    a
    The Streaming Services’ first contention is that it was
    arbitrary and capricious for the Board to rely on information
    drawn from different expert analyses in calculating the
    mechanical royalty rates. Streaming Services Br. 38–39. In
    their view, the Board’s approach was “virtually identical” to
    the arbitrary approach struck down in Settling Devotional
    40
    Claimants because it involved “taking some numbers from
    discredited methodologies and others from methodologies”
    that the Board “otherwise refused to consider.” Streaming
    Services Br. 43 (formatting modified).
    This case looks nothing like Settling Devotional
    Claimants. In that case, two parties each claimed a right to the
    royalties associated with devotional programming. Settling
    Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1111
    . But neither party
    presented competent evidence of how the devotional
    programming royalties should be divided between them. So
    the Board rejected both parties’ methodologies in total.
    Id. at 1113.
    That left the Board with no reliable evidence at all of
    how to allocate the devotional programming royalties. So the
    Board chose to split the difference. For two of the years at
    issue, the Board picked the one royalty allocation number
    where the parties’ (already rejected) proposed ranges happened
    to coincide.
    Id. at 1114.
    For the other two years, the Board
    simply averaged the values selected for the first two years.
    Id. This court reversed,
    explaining that “simply picking a
    number out of [a] flawed and otherwise-rejected proposal just
    because it happened to roughly coincide with the lowest bound
    proposed by [an opposing party] falls beyond the bounds of
    reasoned decisionmaking.” Settling Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1120
    . Even worse, for two of the years, the Board
    simply “split the difference of the allocations from the two
    other years” without any evidentiary support or rationale for
    that decision.
    Id. at 1121.
    Unlike in Settling Devotional Claimants, the Board here
    did not split the difference between analyses that it had already
    rejected as fatally flawed. Rather, the Board found the analyses
    upon which it relied informative and accurate in the relied-
    upon parts, even if imperfect in other respects. In particular,
    41
    based on analyses submitted by Spotify’s expert, Leslie Marx,
    and the Copyright Owners’ experts, Richard Watt and Joshua
    Gans, the Board found that the Phonorecords II mechanical
    license royalties were too low and that the sound recording
    rightsholders were extracting more than their fair share of
    royalties. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1951–1954. The Board then
    carefully analyzed the competing testimony and drew from it
    rates that were grounded in the record and supported by
    reasoned analysis. See Association of American 
    Publishers, 485 F.2d at 773
    (“[T]he rough splitting of a difference between
    two fairly but not wholly satisfactory rate calculations is a
    familiar permissible technique,” since a ratemaking entity
    “may fashion its own adjustments within reasonable limits.”).
    All three expert analyses “were broadly consistent insofar
    as they all found that the ratio of sound recording to musical
    works royalty rates should decline,” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1951–
    1952, because sound recording royalties were too high relative
    to the musical works royalties. Watt explained that this
    phenomenon was at least partially explained by the fact that
    mechanical license royalties were “significantly below the
    predicted fair rate.”
    Id. at 1952.
    That gap had empowered
    sound recording rightsholders to extract that surplus amount in
    their negotiations with the interactive streaming services.
    Id. To select the
    specific revenue rate that would respond to
    that problem, the Board began by determining the total percent
    of the interactive streaming services’ revenue that should be
    paid out in royalties to the sound recording rightsholders and
    the musical works rightsholders collectively. To that end, the
    Board treated Marx’s upper estimate of the percent of total
    revenue that interactive streaming services should pay in
    royalties as the lower bound for the Board’s range. 84 Fed.
    Reg. at 1954. The Board took this approach because it found,
    based on Watt’s testimony, that Marx’s analysis understated
    42
    the fair allocation of surplus to the copyright owners by
    overstating the streaming services’ costs and understating their
    revenue.
    Id. at 1953–1954.
    Substantial evidence supports that
    judgment.
    The Board then took the lower bound of Watt’s estimate
    of the percentage of revenue that should be paid out in royalties
    and treated that value as the upper bound for the Board’s
    purposes. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1954. The Board explained that it
    did so because Watt’s royalty figures “were presented as
    rebuttal testimony” to Marx’s testimony, so Marx had no
    opportunity to respond to them.
    Id. Therefore, the Board
    took
    the conservative approach of “viewing [Watt’s] lowest
    figure * * * as an upper bound[.]”
    Id. That type of
    weighing
    of evidence and decision to proceed cautiously is well within
    the Board’s discretion.
    The Board proceeded to calculate the zone of
    reasonableness for the revenue rate by applying the ratios of
    sound recording royalties to musical works royalties from
    Gans’ and Marx’s analyses to the Board’s upper and lower
    bounds for the percent of revenue that should be paid out in
    total royalties. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1954.
    The Board ultimately settled on the revenue rate of 15.1%
    “based on the highest value of overall royalties predicted by
    Professor Marx’s model and the ratio of sound recording to
    musical work royalties determined by * * * Gans’s analysis.”
    84 Fed. Reg. at 1959–1960. Gans’ analysis sought to estimate
    an appropriate per-subscriber or per-play mechanical license
    royalty rate.
    Id. at 1951.
    This involved estimating the ratio of
    sound recording royalties to musical works royalties in an
    unconstrained market.
    Id. at 1950. 43
    The Streaming Services argue that the Board acted
    arbitrarily by relying on the ratio Gans derived even though it
    “explicitly rejected [Gans’ model] as unreliable[.]” Streaming
    Services Br. 43 (emphasis in original). That is not what
    happened.
    The Board rejected Gans’ per-subscriber and per-play
    royalty proposals, but not because of any infirmity in his
    analysis of the ratio of sound recording royalties to musical
    works. The Board just found that Gans’ reliance on another
    expert’s unsound per-play sound recording rate fatal to his
    proposed per-subscriber and per-play mechanical royalty rates.
    84 Fed. Reg. at 1951. When it came to the expert evidence on
    which the Board chose to rely—the “ratio of sound recording
    to musical work royalties that * * * Gans derived from his
    analysis”—the Board specifically found that aspect of Gans’
    analysis to be reasonable and “informative.”
    Id. (formatting modified); id.
    (Board finds reasonable Gans’ equal value
    assumption and his reliance on Goldman Sachs’ profit
    projections). That type of line-drawing and reasoned weighing
    of the evidence falls squarely within the Board’s wheelhouse
    as an expert administrative agency.11
    11
    The Streaming Services also argue that the Board arbitrarily,
    and without explanation, selected the midpoint of the zone of
    reasonableness as the revenue rate. Streaming Services Br. 43. That
    misunderstands the Board’s decision. The Board explained that the
    revenue rate is “based on the highest value of overall royalties
    predicted by Professor Marx’s model and the ratio of sound
    recording to musical work royalties determined by * * * Gans’s
    analysis.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1959. That value happens to coincide with
    the midpoint of the revenue rate’s zone of reasonableness. See
    id. at 1954
    . 
    That is not the same as arbitrarily choosing to split the baby
    between two equally invalid numbers, as occurred in Settling
    Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1120
    .
    44
    b
    The Streaming Services argue, secondly, that the Board
    arbitrarily rejected two potential rate benchmarks—the Subpart
    A settlement and the Phonorecords II settlement—without
    adequate explanation.
    The Subpart A settlement governs the royalty rates and
    terms for physical phonorecords, permanent digital downloads,
    and ringtones. 82 Fed. Reg. 15,297, 15,297–15,299 (March 28,
    2017); see also 84 Fed. Reg. at 1920. The Board’s decision
    selected higher revenue rates for the disputed streaming service
    categories than the Subpart A settlement imposed on the three
    uncontested categories. Compare J.A. 1407–1410, with 84
    Fed. Reg. at 1960. The Streaming Services contend that the
    Board failed to explain that differential.
    Not so. The Board addressed that difference quite directly,
    explaining that there is “less access value in the sale of a
    download or a CD, compared to the access value of a
    subscription to a streaming service[.]” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1946.
    For that reason, the Board reasonably treated the Part A
    settlement rates as, “at best,” a floor below which the disputed
    categories rates should not fall.
    Id. In their reply
    brief, the Streaming Services argue that
    increased access value from streaming services is exclusively
    attributable to the streaming service providers’ efforts and so
    does not justify the payment of higher royalties to copyright
    holders. Services Reply 23–24. But “an argument first made
    in a reply brief is forfeited.” Bartko v. SEC, 
    845 F.3d 1217
    ,
    1224 n.7 (D.C. Cir. 2017).
    The Streaming Services next argue that the Board failed to
    keep its promise to “incorporate” the rates from the Subpart A
    45
    settlement “into the development of a zone of reasonableness
    of royalty rates within the rate structure adopted[.]” 84 Fed.
    Reg. at 1947. But the Board stayed true to its word by adopting
    a zone of reasonableness that was higher than the revenue rate
    set forth in that settlement. See
    id. at 1954
    (establishing the
    zone of reasonableness for the revenue prong); see also
    id. at 1946.
    The Board’s treatment of the Phonorecords II settlement,
    though, is muddled.
    In rejecting that settlement as a possible benchmark, the
    Board faulted the Streaming Services for failing to explain why
    the parties to the Phonorecords II settlement agreed to the rates
    in that settlement. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1944 (Board noting the
    absence of evidence regarding the parties’ negotiations leading
    up to the adoption of the settlement). The Board also rejected
    the notion that the Streaming Services’ reliance on the
    continuation of the Phonorecords II rates alone justified the use
    of that settlement as a relevant benchmark.
    Id. But nowhere does
    the Final Determination explain why
    evidence of the parties’ subjective intent in negotiating the
    Phonorecords II settlement is a prerequisite to its adoption as a
    benchmark.
    On appeal, the Board changes tack and argues that its
    rejection of the Phonorecords II settlement was reasonable
    because “[t]he weight of the evidence * * * showed that the
    prior rates had been set far too low, thus negating the usefulness
    of the prior settlement as a benchmark.” Board Br. 64. The
    Board further suggests that it reasonably rejected this
    benchmark because it was “outdated[.]” Board Br. 65.
    46
    Those arguments by counsel are nowhere to be found in
    the Final Determination’s discussion of the appropriateness of
    the Phonorecords II settlement as a potential benchmark. So
    we cannot rely on them to sustain that decision. Council for
    Urological Interests v. Burwell, 
    790 F.3d 212
    , 222 (D.C. Cir.
    2015) (Court “must judge the propriety of agency action solely
    by the grounds invoked by the agency.”) (formatting modified)
    (quoting SEC v. Chenery Corp., 
    332 U.S. 194
    , 196 (1947)).
    The Copyright Owners, for their part, attempt to defend
    the Board’s rejection of the Phonorecords II settlement based
    on the lack of evidence of subjective intent. They argue that
    the subjective intent of the parties to the Phonorecords II
    settlement is relevant because it “would have revealed whether
    the agreed-upon rates were based on economic realities or
    instead were driven by other considerations.” Copyright
    Owners Intervenor Br. 28 (Copyright Owners arguing that
    “streaming was of no economic significance” when the
    Phonorecords II settlement was adopted, and that they agreed
    to the settlement to avoid “the distraction of litigating” the
    issue) (formatting modified). Perhaps. But the Copyright
    Owners’ post hoc explanation cannot make up for the Board’s
    failure to adequately explain itself in the Final Determination.
    See 
    Chenery, 332 U.S. at 196
    .
    Because we cannot discern the basis on which the Board
    rejected the Phonorecords II rates as a benchmark in its
    analysis, that issue is remanded to the Board for a reasoned
    analysis.
    c
    Finally, the Streaming Services argue that the Copyright
    Royalty Board’s determinations failed to adequately consider
    the four statutory objectives.
    47
    Recall that Section 801(b)(1) required the Board’s
    decision to advance four competing priorities: (A) maximizing
    the availability of creative works, (B) affording copyright
    owners a fair return and copyright users a fair income,
    (C) reflecting the relative roles of the copyright owners and
    users in making music available to the public, and
    (D) minimizing any disruption on the “structure of the
    industries involved and on generally prevailing industry
    practices.” 17 U.S.C. § 801(b)(1) (2012).
    Beginning with factor A, the Streaming Services argue that
    no substantial evidence supports the Board’s conclusion that an
    increase in the royalty rates for mechanical licenses was
    necessary “to ensure the continued viability of songwriting as
    a profession.” Streaming Services Br. 51–52 (quoting 84 Fed.
    Reg. at 1958). That is incorrect.
    The Board found that there was “ample, uncontroverted
    testimony that songwriters have seen a marked decline in
    mechanical royalty income over the past two decades,” making
    it “increasingly difficult for non-performing songwriters * * *
    to earn a living practicing their craft.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1957.
    The Board found that “this decline has led to fewer
    songwriters” and that, “[i]f this trend continues, the availability
    of quality songs will inevitably decrease.”
    Id. The Streaming Services
    respond that the question whether
    declining mechanical license royalties have made it harder for
    professional songwriters to make a living was, in fact,
    controverted. Streaming Services Br. 52. They point to
    testimony by Nashville Songwriters Association International
    Executive Director Bart Herbison. But that testimony suggests
    only that streaming may not be the sole cause of the reduction
    in songwriters’ mechanical license income, while
    acknowledging that streaming is at least a “complicating
    48
    factor.”    J.A. 456–457 (“I’m not blaming the loss of
    songwriters on streaming. It is a complicating factor. What
    I’m saying * * * is streaming doesn’t pay enough as radio goes
    away, and there [are] no more record sales to allow songwriters
    to earn a living.”); see J.A. 454–455 (Herbison admitting that
    mechanical license income had decreased before the rise of
    music streaming, but stating that the problem worsened after
    streaming became popular).
    The Streaming Services also contend that there was “no
    evidence in the record that songwriters as a group have
    diminished their supply of musical works to the public.”
    Streaming Services Br. 51–52 (quoting 84 Fed. Reg. at 1957).
    They point to record evidence indicating that the membership
    and musical works repertoires of two performance-rights
    organizations—the American Society of Composers, Authors
    and Publishers and Broadcast Music, Inc.—have grown in
    recent years. See J.A. 1426–1428.
    But an increase in repertoires is not the same as the
    creation of new songs. In fact, the Streaming Services’ own
    expert, Mark Zmijewski, testified that he could not tell whether
    the increases were mostly the result of new songs being written
    or simply the result of those organizations acquiring the rights
    to preexisting songs. J.A. 1361–1362.
    Nor do the organizations’ increasing memberships
    necessarily signify an increase in the number of songwriters in
    the industry. Those associations’ members are not limited to
    songwriters, and anybody who owns (alone or jointly) the
    rights to a song—including, for example, a songwriter’s
    multiple heirs—can register as a member of a performance-
    rights organization. J.A. 475.
    49
    To be supported by substantial evidence, the Board’s
    decision did not have to be irrefutable. See Biestek v. Berryhill,
    
    139 S. Ct. 1148
    , 1154 (2019). It just had to reflect a reasonable
    reading of the record.
    Id. (defining substantial evidence
    as
    “such relevant evidence as a reasonable mind might accept as
    adequate to support a conclusion”) (internal quotation marks
    omitted). The Board met that test here.
    Turning to statutory factors B and C, the Streaming
    Services argue that the Board failed to consider whether
    interactive streaming services would receive fair revenue under
    the rates and rate structure it adopted. Streaming Services
    Br. 50. They specifically contend that, under the Board’s
    approach, streaming services will keep less revenue than they
    should. Streaming Services Br. 50–51. That is because, as the
    Board recognized, 84 Fed. Reg. at 1952–1953, the sound
    recordings rightsholders are currently extracting more than
    their fair share of profits. Streaming Services Br. 50.
    As for factor D, the Streaming Services argue that the
    Board failed to account for the possibility that the new rate
    structure and heightened rate would eventually result in the
    elimination of “all existing providers of interactive streaming
    services” and result in “their substitution with vertically
    integrated [music] providers[.]” Streaming Services Br. 49.
    The question whether the Board adequately addressed
    factors B through D is bound up with the Board’s analysis of
    sound recording rightsholders’ likely responses to the new rate
    structure. See 84 Fed. Reg. at 1953 (Board stating that there is
    “no basis to assume that record companies will head for the
    exits” and create their own streaming services rather than lower
    their royalty rates in response to the new mechanical license
    rates and rate structure). This argument, in turn, is intertwined
    with the nature of the rate structure ultimately imposed by the
    50
    Board. Because we vacate and remand the Final Determination
    in part for lack of notice to the parties with respect to the final
    rate structure, we need not at this juncture address whether the
    Board adequately considered these remaining factors.
    C
    The Streaming Services and the Copyright Owners each
    found something to dislike in the Board’s definitions of certain
    important terms. The Streaming Services object to the Board’s
    late-in-the-game reformulation of how “Service Revenue” for
    bundled offerings was to be calculated. And the Copyright
    Owners object to the Board’s method for counting the number
    of subscribers attributable to student and family subscription
    plans for interactive streaming services. We agree with the
    Streaming Services but find no merit to the Copyright Owners’
    protest.
    1
    The Streaming Services challenge both the legal authority
    and the substantive soundness of the Board’s decision, after it
    had already issued its Initial Determination, to reformulate the
    definition of “Service Revenue” for bundled offerings.
    Because the Board failed to explain the legal authority for its
    late-breaking rewrite, we vacate and remand that aspect of the
    decision.
    In its Initial Determination, the Board directed that the
    revenue from streaming services that are included in bundled
    offerings would generally be measured by the value remaining
    after subtracting the prices attributable to the other products in
    the bundle. When the Copyright Owners objected to the
    substance of that definition in their motion for “clarification,”
    the Board adopted an entirely new definition of Service
    51
    Revenue for bundled offerings. J.A. 1267. This new definition
    generally measured the value of the streaming component of a
    bundle as the standalone price of the streaming component.
    J.A. 1267.
    The problem is that the Board has completely failed to
    explain under what authority it was able to materially rework
    that definition so late in the game.
    Section 803(c)(2) of Title 17 deals explicitly with
    “Rehearings” by the Board after it issues an Initial
    Determination. 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(2). That Section provides
    that the Board “may, in exceptional cases, upon motion of a
    participant[,] * * * order a rehearing, after the [Initial
    Determination] is issued * * *, on such matters as the [Board]
    determine[s] to be appropriate.”
    Id. § 803(c)(2)(A). Section
    803(c)(4) of Title 17, which is entitled
    “Continuing Jurisdiction,” separately authorizes the Board to
    sua sponte “issue an amendment to a written determination to
    correct any technical or clerical errors in the determination or
    to modify the terms, but not the rates, of royalty payments in
    response to unforeseen circumstances that would frustrate the
    proper implementation of such determination.” 17 U.S.C.
    § 803(c)(4). Any amendments must “be set forth in a written
    addendum to the determination that shall be distributed to the
    participants of the proceeding and shall be published in the
    Federal Register.” Id.; see also
    id. § 803(c)(6) (requiring
    the
    Librarian of Congress to make public corrections in the same
    manner as determinations).
    So Section 803 identifies three ways in which the Board
    can revise Initial Determinations. It can (i) order rehearing “in
    exceptional cases” in response to a party’s motion, 17 U.S.C.
    § 803(c)(2)(A); (ii) correct “technical or clerical errors,”
    id. 52
    § 803(c)(4); and (iii) “modify the terms, but not the rates” of a
    royalty payment, “in response to unforeseen circumstances that
    would frustrate the proper implementation of [the]
    determination,”
    id. The Board’s rollout
    of an entirely new
    manner for calculating the streaming service revenue from
    bundled offerings fit none of those categories.
    The Board’s material revision of the “Service Revenue”
    definition for bundled offerings does not fall within the Board’s
    rehearing authority under Section 803(c)(2)(A). We have that
    on no less an authority than the Board itself, which was explicit
    that it “did not treat the [Copyright Owners’] motion[]” to have
    the definition changed “as [a] motion[] for rehearing under 17
    U.S.C. § 803(c)(2).” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918 n.2. That is because
    the Copyright Owners’ motion did not “request[] a literal
    rehearing of evidence or legal argument.”
    Id. Nor could they
    have because, as the Board found, the Copyright Owners’
    motion did “not meet [the] exceptional standard for granting
    rehearing motions” under Section 803(c)(2). J.A. 1251 (Board
    explaining that the Copyright Owners “failed to make even a
    prima facie case for rehearing under the [rehearing] standard”).
    In a volte-face, the Board now defends its decision as an
    exercise of its rehearing authority. Oral Arg. Tr. 63:8; see
    Board Br. 74–75. No dice. It is well-trod ground at this point
    in our opinion that we may sustain agency action only for the
    reasons invoked by the agency at the time it took the challenged
    action. See Department of Homeland Security v. Regents of the
    Univ. of Cal., 
    140 S. Ct. 1891
    , 1909 (2020) (rejecting an
    agency’s attempt to rely in court on “impermissible post hoc
    rationalizations” to defend the legality of its action); Federal
    Power Comm’n v. Texaco, Inc., 
    417 U.S. 380
    , 397 (1974) (“We
    cannot accept appellate counsel’s post hoc rationalizations for
    agency action; for an agency’s order must be upheld, if at all,
    on the same basis articulated in the order by the agency itself.”)
    53
    (formatting modified); Grand Canyon Air Tour Coal. v.
    Federal Aviation Admin., 
    154 F.3d 455
    , 469 (D.C. Cir. 1998)
    (Administrative Procedure Act review confines courts to “the
    regulatory rationale actually offered by the agency during the
    development of the regulation, and not the post-hoc
    rationalizations of its lawyers.”) (citing cases). An equally
    forceful corollary is that we cannot sustain action on grounds
    that the agency itself specifically disavowed.
    To be sure, the Board’s order added that, “[t]o the extent
    the [Board’s] actions could be considered a rehearing under 17
    U.S.C. § 803(c)(2), the [Board] further resolve[s] [the]
    motion[] on the papers without oral argument.” J.A. 1251.
    One thing is clear from that passive-voice phrasing: Whoever
    it is that might be “consider[ing]” the decision a “rehearing,” it
    is not the Board.         Although the Board can advance
    justifications for its decisions in the alternative, it cannot
    maintain in the same order both that the statutory rehearing
    standard has not been satisfied and (in the alternative) that the
    order could be considered as granting a rehearing. So that
    passing comment by the Board offers no legal justification for
    treating the Copyright Owners’ request as a successful motion
    for rehearing.
    Neither was the Board’s new definition of Service
    Revenue for bundled offerings an exercise of its authority
    under Section 803(c)(4) to “correct any technical or clerical
    errors in the determination[.]” 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(4). The
    Board does not even try to squeeze its substantive rewrite of
    the Service Revenue definition into that category. Quite the
    opposite, the Board admits that the new definition “represent[s]
    a departure” from the definition in the Initial Determination,
    and was a substantive swap designed to “mitigate” the alleged
    “problem” of the original definition leaving the interactive
    streaming service providers free to “obscure royalty-based
    54
    streaming revenue by offering product bundles that include
    music service offerings with other goods and services[.]”
    Board Br. 67–68 (internal quotation marks omitted). To that
    same point, the order itself labels the initial and new definitions
    “diametrically-opposed approaches to valuing bundled
    revenues.” J.A. 1266. Nothing technical or clerical about that.
    Nor did the Board’s order purport to “modify the
    terms * * * in response to unforeseen circumstances that would
    frustrate the proper implementation of [the Initial]
    [D]etermination.” 17 U.S.C. § 803(c)(4). The order never
    mentions Section 803(c)(4) or unforeseen circumstances as the
    basis for revamping the Service Revenue definition. As the
    Board agrees, its briefing to this court also did not explain what
    unforeseen circumstances permitted the term to be modified.
    See Oral Arg. Tr. 65:15–17 (Board agreeing it “did not
    specifically focus on unforeseen circumstances” in its briefing
    defending the revision).
    Come oral argument, the Board attempted to explain that
    “the unforeseen circumstances would be that [it] [initially
    adopted] a [definition] that was not supported by the record,
    and that was in fact substantively unreasonable and would
    frustrate the proper implementation of their [determination].”
    Oral Arg. Tr. 61:20–24. It is hard to see how the need to
    ground the original definition in the record was an unforeseen
    circumstance. That is Administrative Law 101. See also 17
    U.S.C. § 803(c)(3) (“A determination of the [Board] shall be
    supported by the written record[.]”). Anyhow, by this point, it
    should go without saying that we may not sustain the Board’s
    action based on its attorney’s theorizing at oral argument. See
    
    Regents, 140 S. Ct. at 1906
    –1909.
    Brushing off the absence of any statutory authority for its
    action, the Board claims the inherent authority sua sponte to
    55
    make any “appropriate” substantive, J.A. 1251, or
    “fundamental” changes after the Initial Determination, Oral
    Arg. Tr. 62:20, that it believes serve “the interests of enhancing
    the clarity and administrability of the regulatory terms
    accompanying the [Final Determination].” J.A. 1251. To that
    end, the Final Determination explains that it treated the
    Copyright Owners’ request as a general motion under its
    regulations. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1918; see 37 C.F.R. § 303.4 (“A
    motion * * * must, at a minimum, state concisely the specific
    relief the party seeks from the [Board], and the legal, factual,
    and evidentiary basis for granting that relief[.]”) (formerly
    codified at § 350.4).
    Granted, the Board has “considerable freedom to
    determine its own procedures.” 
    SoundExchange, 904 F.3d at 61
    . But that flexibility must be exercised within the lines
    drawn by the authorizing statute. Congress’s decision to limit
    rehearing to “exceptional cases,” and to confine other post hoc
    amendments to cases involving “technical or clerical errors,”
    would be a nullity if the Board also had plenary authority to
    revise its determinations whenever it thought appropriate. The
    Board nowhere in its order or the Final Determination explains
    the source of its power to make “fundamental” changes under
    the authorizing statute, Oral Arg. Tr. 62:18–63:6, any time it
    deems such changes “appropriate,” J.A. 1251, even after the
    Initial Determination. The Board’s decision said nothing of the
    sort, and prior Board decisions are silent on that topic. And at
    oral argument, the Board was equivocal. See Oral Arg.
    Tr. 63:4–11 (Q: “Is that an inherent power, or is that what
    you’re putting under [Section 803(c)]? A: “I mean, I think it’s
    both, right?        Sometimes it will fall under the
    [Section 803](c)(4) [authority], and sometimes it will fall under
    the [Section 803](c)(2) rehearing power. And I don’t think it’s
    necessary for this Court to address which one it is because I
    56
    think it could properly be understood as both.”) (formatting
    modified).
    Vacillating gestures to uninvoked authority will not do.
    We must vacate the Final Determination’s bundled offering
    Service Revenue definition and remand for the Board either to
    provide “a fuller explanation of the agency’s reasoning at the
    time of the agency action[,]” or to take “new agency action”
    accompanied by the appropriate procedures. Regents, 140 S.
    Ct. at 1908 (formatting modified).
    Because the Board failed to identify any legal authority for
    adopting the new Service Revenue definition, we have no
    occasion to address the Streaming Services’ separate argument
    that the definition was arbitrary, capricious, or unsupported by
    substantial evidence.
    2
    The Copyright Owners take exception to the Board’s
    definition of “Subscribers” as applied to student and family
    streaming plans, which affects the computation of the
    mechanical floor. Specifically, they object to treating
    (i) family plan subscriptions as 1.5 subscribers, regardless of
    the number of family members using the account, and
    (ii) student plans as 0.5 subscribers. 37 C.F.R. § 385.22(b)
    (2019); 84 Fed. Reg. at 1962; see Copyright Owners Br. 30.
    The Board explained that the assigned valuations match
    how the interactive streaming services themselves generally
    price those programs, with family plans set at 1.5 times the
    normal subscription rate and student plans at 0.5 times the
    normal subscription rate. See 84 Fed. Reg. at 1961–1962. The
    Board reasoned that this practice of “marketing reduced rate
    subscriptions to families and students” was sensibly “aimed at
    57
    monetizing a segment of the market with a low [willingness to
    pay] (or ability to pay) that might not otherwise subscribe at
    all” to a streaming service.
    Id. The Copyright Owners’
    sole argument is that “the record
    lacks evidence to support [the] factual premise” that “students
    and families have a low willingness to pay” for digital music.
    Copyright Owners Br. 30. That is wrong.
    As a reviewing court, we ask only whether the Board’s
    determination that students and families have a lower
    willingness (or ability) to pay is “supported by substantial
    evidence on the record as a whole.” Arkansas v. Oklahoma,
    
    503 U.S. 91
    , 113 (1992). That is not a high evidentiary bar to
    clear: “It means—and means only—such relevant evidence as
    a reasonable mind might accept as adequate to support a
    conclusion.” 
    Biestek, 139 S. Ct. at 1154
    ; see also Settling
    Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1115
    (applying “the highly
    deferential lens of substantial evidence review”). The Board’s
    finding about the willingness (and ability) of students and
    families to pay is grounded in substantial record evidence.
    For starters, the testimony of multiple witnesses during the
    ratemaking proceeding supports the Board’s factual findings.
    For example, Spotify’s expert, Dr. Leslie Marx, specifically
    touted the greater efficiency attained by offering student and
    family plans given those groups’ lower willingness to pay for
    streaming services. J.A. 435–436 (Testifying about the
    benefits of having “a way for low willingness to pay consumers
    to access music, for example, student discounts, family
    discounts[,] * * * where low willingness to pay consumers can
    still access music in a way that still allows more monetization
    of that provision of that service.”); see also J.A. 1449 (The
    continuation of different subscriber offerings “provide[s] an
    efficient avenue for expanding listening and generating profits
    58
    from consumers with low willingness to pay,” specifically
    groups “such as students * * * with a higher elasticity of
    demand for streaming.”); J.A. 1454–1455 (“[E]conomic
    efficiency” is furthered “by offering terms, such as student and
    family discount plans, under which users with a lower
    [willingness to pay] can participate in the service.”).
    Several streaming service providers similarly testified to
    the benefits of offering student and family plan discounts. One
    described an internal study that his service had conducted
    demonstrating “that[,] while a large number of students would
    not pay [the full monthly price]” for a streaming service, “they
    would be willing to pay [half of it].” J.A. 1446. He also
    explained that the study “showed that the additional revenue
    from students who would sign up with the reduced price but
    wouldn’t have signed up without it” was greater than “the lost
    revenue from students who would be willing to pay for the
    higher price[.]” J.A. 1446.
    Another provider explained that family plans have proven
    helpful to access “younger members of the family [who] don’t
    have a credit card, don’t have a payment method, are not really
    in a position to afford a [full price monthly] plan.” J.A. 450–
    451 (also explaining that, “for students, it is really more of a
    value proposition because someone who is going to school is
    quite often not working and still loves music”). That provider
    also testified specifically that such individuals have a lower
    willingness to pay, and that the discounted offerings “allow
    [the Services] to get more people into the ecosystem to be
    participants of the subscription service,” and to eventually be
    funneled into full-priced subscribers. J.A. 451.
    Several other streaming service providers testified to
    similar effect. See, e.g., J.A. 1365 (“[I]t is unlikely that a
    family of four is going to purchase four separate streaming
    59
    service subscription plans to the tune of $40 per month,
    particularly with the widespread availability of fully licensed
    (and unlicensed) free music,” so “[f]amily subscription plans
    provide a financial boon for the entire ecosystem[.]”);
    id. (not offering a
    family discount plan could lead to a family sharing
    an individual account at only $10 a month, rather than $15 a
    month); J.A. 1367 (Students access licensed music for free
    through platforms like YouTube, “[a]nd the specter of digital
    piracy still looms[,]” so “[d]iscounted student subscription
    plans allow [the Services] to” convert “non-paying listeners to
    paying listeners[,]” “benefit[ing] [copyright owners] by way of
    increased royalties[.]”); J.A. 416–417 (“So students who have
    a smaller budget, as long as they are still students, having a
    student plan that is at a discount, it allows them to be a paying
    customer, teaches them about paying for music, builds that
    habit, and then when they graduate and enter the
    workforce[,] * * * they upgrade.”).
    The Copyright Owners object that the testimony was too
    “speculative” and “conclusory” to support the Board’s
    decision. Copyright Owners Reply Br. 3. They also point to a
    study that reached a different conclusion from those witnesses’
    testimony, asserting that “[c]ollege students are more willing
    to pay for music streaming services than non-students.”
    J.A. 503 (emphasis added).
    The Board’s decision needed only to be grounded in
    substantial evidence, not undisputed evidence. See Settling
    Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1117
    ( “[A]ll that matters is
    that we cannot say that the [Board] lacked substantial
    evidence” in reaching its conclusions.). Finding facts based on
    the weight and credibility of the evidence falls squarely within
    the Board’s expertise, and the Copyright Owners have offered
    no plausible basis for this court to “displace” the Board’s
    “choice between two fairly conflicting views” of the record
    60
    evidence. Universal Camera Corp. v. NLRB, 
    340 U.S. 474
    ,
    488 (1951); see Settling Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1115
    .
    D
    Finally, we turn to songwriter George Johnson’s
    objections to the Board’s mechanical license royalty rates and
    terms. While thoughtfully presented, none of his arguments
    succeed.
    1
    Johnson’s opening argument is that the Board erred by
    approving the industry-wide Subpart A settlement. That
    settlement continued the prior mechanical royalty rate agreed
    to in 2006—the greater of 9.1 cents per song or 1.75 cents per
    minute of playing time (or fraction thereof)—for physical
    phonorecords, permanent digital downloads, and ringtones.
    Johnson is the only party that objected to adoption of that
    settlement agreement. He argues that, instead of continuing
    those rates, the Board should have adjusted for “unrecognized
    inflation” the 2-cent mechanical rate originally established in
    1909, so that the mechanical rate for Subpart A would be
    roughly 50 cents. Johnson Br. 13; see also Oral Arg. Tr. 34:6–
    15 (Johnson explaining that his inflation argument “is not an
    all-or-nothing request[,]” and that he would welcome any
    inflation-adjusted increase of a prior mechanical rate).
    While adopting such an inflation-based approach to rate
    setting might well have been a reasonable option, that is not
    enough to prevail under the deferential Administrative
    Procedure Act standard of review. See Department of
    Commerce v. New York, 
    139 S. Ct. 2551
    , 2569 (2019) (Judicial
    review under the Administrative Procedure Act is narrow, and
    61
    “[w]e may not substitute our judgment for that of the [agency],
    but instead must confine ourselves to ensuring that [it]
    remained within the bounds of reasoned decisionmaking[.]”)
    (formatting modified); see also Settling Devotional 
    Claimants, 797 F.3d at 1115
    . The only questions are whether the law
    required such an inflation adjustment or whether it was
    unreasonable to omit it. The record establishes neither of those.
    Nothing in the Copyright Act compelled the Board to
    include an inflation adjustment. Rather, the Copyright Act
    empowers the Board to adopt rates and terms reached in an
    “agreement * * * among some or all of the participants in a
    proceeding” as long as (i) the Board affords parties to the
    proceeding “an opportunity to comment on the agreement and
    object to its adoption” (and those that would be bound by the
    terms an opportunity to comment on the agreement); and
    (ii) the agreement provides a “reasonable basis for setting
    statutory terms or rates.” 17 U.S.C. § 801(b)(7)(A) (2012)
    (emphasis added).
    Johnson fails to explain why mechanically adjusting prior
    rates and terms for inflation (from 1909 or otherwise) was the
    only reasonable approach for the Board to take, or why
    accepting the parties’ negotiated continuation of the 2006 rates
    here was unreasonable. As the Board explained, the rates and
    terms adopted by the settlement were “negotiated on behalf of
    the vast majority of parties that historically have participated in
    [ratemaking proceedings] before the [Board].” 82 Fed. Reg. at
    15,298. Those parties, including copyright owners like the
    National Music Publishers’ Association and the Nashville
    Songwriters Association International, represented “individual
    songwriters and publishers[,]” and so could be expected to
    protect their economic self-interest.
    Id. While Johnson disagreed
    “[f]rom the perspective of an independent
    songwriter,” he did not identify any “evidence to support his
    62
    argument that the representative negotiators [were] engaged in
    anti-competitive price-fixing at below-market rates.”
    Id. For those reasons,
    the Board reasonably concluded that the
    stakeholder-negotiated prices continued to reflect “market
    value”—that is, what “a willing buyer and a willing seller
    would pay, with neither party being under any compulsion to
    bargain.”     82 Fed. Reg. at 15,298–15,299.           Those
    representative “parties clearly concluded that the rates and
    terms were acceptable to both sides[,]” and Johnson presented
    insufficient evidence and arguments for the Board “to
    determine that the agreed rates and terms [were]
    unreasonable.”
    Id. at 15,299. 2
    Johnson separately argues that the Board erred by allowing
    “limited download[s]” without compensation to the copyright
    owners.
    By way of explanation, 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(a)–(c) sets the
    royalty rate for the mechanical license at “zero” in three
    circumstances. First, this rate applies where a record company
    that owns a sound recording and has a license to use the musical
    work authorizes a streaming service to play a particular song
    without cost (usually for a limited period of time or for a
    limited number of plays) to promote the song, artist, or album.
    Those are referred to as “Promotional Offerings.” 37 C.F.R.
    § 385.31(a) (2019).
    Second, the zero mechanical license applies when the
    playing of the song is part of a “Free Trial Offering[]” of the
    streaming service, and the service “receives no monetary
    consideration” from the user. 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(b) (2019).
    63
    Third, the mechanical license zeroes out when the
    customer has already purchased the song and is simply playing
    it through an online digital locker run by the streaming service.
    See 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(c) (2019); see also 84 Fed. Reg. at
    1955. Those are referred to as “Purchased Content Locker
    Services.” 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(c) (2019).
    The Board concluded that it was reasonable in setting the
    royalty rate for determining the mechanical license “to
    distinguish promotional or non-revenue producing offerings
    from” the general “revenue-producing offerings” provided by
    the streaming services. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1955. With respect to
    Limited Downloads, 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(a) (2019), the Board
    emphasized that “[r]ecord companies distributing promotional
    recordings bear responsibility, if any there be, for the licensing
    of the embodied musical work.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1955. As for
    Free Trial Offerings, 37 C.F.R. § 385.31(b) (2019), the Board
    reasoned that they were offered by the Services “to entice free
    users to become paying subscribers after the free trial period.”
    84 Fed. Reg. at 1955. And for Purchased Content Locker
    Services, the customer has already purchased the song and the
    Streaming Services have already drawn revenue from—and
    paid royalties for—the purchase price of the song. 37 C.F.R.
    § 385.31(c) (2019). So additional plays by the purchaser were
    “free to the [purchaser] and produce[d] no revenue for the
    Service[s].” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1955.
    In those limited circumstances where the Streaming
    Services gained no revenue from their offering, the Board
    concluded, it was reasonable not to demand that the streaming
    service providers “pay mechanical musical works royalties.”
    84 Fed. Reg. at 1955. To balance things out, the Board
    simultaneously prohibited the Streaming Services from
    “deduct[ing] the costs of those service offerings from [their]
    64
    revenue, for purposes of calculating royalties payable on a
    percent of service revenue.”
    Id. Johnson fails to
    explain why the Board’s adoption of those
    limited and economically balanced exceptions to the generally
    governing mechanical rates was unreasonable under the
    circumstances.
    3
    Johnson next asserts that the Board erred by not requiring
    a “BUY Button” on all streaming service platforms. Johnson
    Br. 14–15. Under Johnson’s proposal, interactive streaming
    service providers “would be required to include a buy button”
    alongside songs available for streaming “that allows customers
    to voluntarily buy or purchase a work as a permanent paid
    digital download.” 84 Fed. Reg. at 1924 (internal quotation
    marks omitted).
    But the Board reasonably explained that, as relevant here,
    its role is statutorily confined to establishing royalty rates and
    terms. See 17 U.S.C. § 115 (2012); 84 Fed. Reg. at 1924. So
    while the Board recognized that “Services may install a ‘buy
    button’ if they wish,” the Board itself had no authority to
    “mandate that service business innovation[.]” 84 Fed. Reg. at
    1924. Nor was it clear “what purpose that button would serve
    other than to alert consumers to the possibility of buying a song
    they happen to stream[,]” a fact of which the Board believed
    consumers were “already aware.”
    Id. 4
    Finally, Johnson asks this court to “re-design” the entire
    rate structure because it is “based on a faulty business model
    for streaming.” Johnson Br. 15–16. He proposed a system in
    which customers “buy the song or the album for a few dollars,
    65
    then stream all they want at the nano-penny rate[.]” Johnson
    Br. 15.
    That is, perhaps, a fine option for the Board to consider.
    Which it did here. 84 Fed. Reg. at 1925 & n.23. But, fatally,
    Johnson does not explain why such a system is compelled
    under the Copyright Act; why customers who have purchased
    songs and then play them in the future should still be incurring
    royalty rates; or how the Board or this court would have the
    authority to effectively eliminate the asserted “faulty business
    model for streaming.” Johnson Br. 15. For those reasons,
    Johnson’s objection on this ground provides no valid basis for
    setting aside the Board’s actions.
    IV
    For the foregoing reasons, we affirm in part and vacate and
    remand to the Board in part for further proceedings consistent
    with this opinion.
    So ordered.