United States v. Melvin Knight ( 2020 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued January 17, 2020            Decided December 8, 2020
    No. 19-3016
    UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,
    APPELLEE
    v.
    MELVIN KNIGHT,
    APPELLANT
    Consolidated with 19-3017
    Appeals from the United States District Court
    for the District of Columbia
    (No. 1:13-cr-00131-2)
    (No. 1:13-cr-00131-1)
    Howard B. Katzoff, appointed by the court, argued the
    cause for appellant. With him on the briefs was Mary E. Davis,
    appointed by the court.
    Bryan H. Han, Assistant U.S. Attorney, argued the cause
    for appellee. With him on the brief were Jessie K. Liu, U.S.
    Attorney, and Elizabeth Trosman, John P. Mannarino, and
    Pamela S. Satterfield, Assistant U.S. Attorneys.
    2
    Before: ROGERS, WILKINS, and KATSAS, Circuit Judges. *
    Opinion for the Court by Circuit Judge ROGERS.
    Opinion dissenting in part by Circuit Judge KATSAS.
    ROGERS, Circuit Judge: In 2013, Melvin Knight and
    Aaron Thorpe were arrested for armed robbery and kidnapping.
    They were charged by the U.S. Attorney’s Office in the D.C.
    Superior Court and offered a generous plea deal by the
    Assistant U.S. Attorney: plead guilty to a single count of
    assault with a dangerous weapon and no further charges
    stemming from these crimes would be filed. Under the D.C.
    Superior Court Sentencing Guidelines, the likely sentences
    would be between two and six years for each defendant. The
    plea offer was wired, however, so both Knight and Thorpe had
    to accept it or it would be withdrawn. Thorpe wanted to accept
    the plea offer, but Knight, who was erroneously advised by his
    counsel that the offer came with ten years in prison and never
    advised by his counsel of the sentencing consequences of
    rejecting plea the offer, did not. Once they declined the plea
    offer, the government dismissed the Superior Court charges
    and prosecuted Knight and Thorpe on a ten-count indictment
    in federal court. A jury found Knight and Thorpe guilty on all
    counts, and the U.S. district court sentenced Knight to more
    than 22 years’ imprisonment and Thorpe to 25 years’
    imprisonment.
    *
    Senior Judge Stephen F. Williams was a member of the panel
    at the time the case was argued and he participated in its
    consideration before his death on August 7, 2020. Judge
    Wilkins was randomly selected thereafter to serve as a member
    of this panel.
    3
    On direct appeal, Knight and Thorpe both argued that they
    had been denied effective assistance of counsel in violation of
    the Sixth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. This court,
    concluding that their claims were “colorable,” United States v.
    Knight, 
    824 F.3d 1105
    , 1113 (D.C. Cir. 2016), remanded the
    case. Following an evidentiary hearing after remand, the
    district court denied relief. Although agreeing that Knight’s
    counsel’s performance was deficient, the court determined that
    Knight had suffered no prejudice. The court rejected Thorpe’s
    claim that his counsel was deficient and did not address
    prejudice. Knight and Thorpe appeal.
    For the following reasons, we reverse in part. Knight
    satisfied his burden under both prongs of the standard for an
    ineffective assistance of counsel claim. See Strickland v.
    Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
    , 687 (1984). First, as the
    government acknowledges, the performance by Knight’s
    counsel did not meet minimal professional standards. Second,
    the district court’s determination that Knight suffered no
    prejudice rested on subsidiary factual findings that ignored the
    direct effect of his counsel’s deficient performance on Knight’s
    ability to intelligently assess his options and therefore were
    clearly erroneous. Viewed properly, the contemporaneous
    evidence and Knight’s testimony at the evidentiary hearing
    sufficed to establish a reasonable probability Knight would
    have accepted the plea offer but for his counsel’s ineffective
    assistance. In contrast, we agree that Thorpe’s counsel was not
    ineffective and there was no violation of his Sixth Amendment
    rights. Accordingly, we affirm as to Thorpe and reverse the
    denial of Knight’s Sixth Amendment challenge, remanding his
    case to the district court to provide a remedy consistent with
    this opinion.
    4
    I.
    In January 2013, Knight and Thorpe were involved in an
    armed robbery and kidnapping of Edmund Peters. They were
    arrested and each was charged with one count of armed
    kidnapping in the D.C. Superior Court and appointed separate
    counsel. Shortly after their arrest, the Assistant U.S. Attorney
    assigned to their cases sent an email to their counsel: If Knight
    and Thorpe would plead guilty to one count of assault with a
    dangerous weapon (“ADW”), then the government would
    agree not to bring additional and more serious charges,
    including two counts of armed kidnapping; two counts of
    possession of a firearm during a crime of violence; two counts
    of obstruction of justice; a second count of assault with a
    dangerous weapon, namely assault with a firearm; and one
    count of felon in possession of a firearm. The plea offer was
    wired, however, allowing the government to dispose of the
    charges against both defendants without a trial while
    preserving its right to prosecution by trial if both did not accept
    the plea offer, which would be withdrawn. In addition, the plea
    offer was contingent on Knight and Thorpe also agreeing “[n]ot
    to seek to modify the conditions of their release pending the
    plea,” meaning that they could not be released from custody
    before entering the plea. 
    Id.
    Knight’s counsel visited Knight in jail but did not mention
    the plea offer. The next day, February 1, 2013, the Assistant
    U.S. Attorney placed the plea offer on the record and the
    Superior Court judge continued the preliminary hearing until
    February 19, 2013, to give Knight and Thorpe time to consider
    whether to accept the plea offer. In fact, Knight’s counsel’s
    lone interaction with Knight about the plea offer was limited to
    misinformation. While still in court, Knight asked how much
    time the government wanted him to serve for the ADW charge,
    and Knight’s counsel told him “[t]en years.” Hearing Tr. 19
    5
    (May 24, 2017). Ten years was the statutory maximum for
    ADW, but the offense had no mandatory minimum and the
    sentencing range under the Superior Court Sentencing
    Guidelines was 24–72 months (2 to 6 years). Although counsel
    told Knight he would visit him in jail to discuss the plea offer
    further, he never did. Consequently, the brief and misleading
    exchange in open court was the extent of the advice that Knight
    received from counsel about the plea offer. Among other
    things relevant to the plea offer, Knight was never advised of
    the worst-case scenario were he to reject the plea offer, namely
    being indicted on additional charges with a greatly increased
    sentencing exposure in federal court.
    Thorpe’s counsel, by contrast, advised his client of the plea
    offer immediately upon learning of it, prior to the appearance
    in the Superior Court for the scheduled preliminary hearing.
    Counsel also visited Thorpe in jail to discuss the terms of the
    plea offer. Their discussion covered the estimated sentencing
    range for the ADW charge; potential additional charges that
    Thorpe would face if he rejected the plea offer and the
    sentencing consequences; and the fact that the plea offer was
    wired. Thorpe’s counsel also alerted his client to the fact that
    he had learned from Knight’s counsel, as the result of a chance
    meeting in the Superior Court, that Knight was not expected to
    take the plea. He told Thorp that the trial prosecutor had
    refused to unwire the plea so Thorpe could plead separately.
    At the February 19 preliminary hearing, Thorpe’s counsel
    stated Knight and Thorpe did not intend to accept the plea offer.
    The U.S. Attorney’s Office withdrew the plea offer and a trial
    date was set. Prior to trial, the Superior Court charges were
    dismissed and a federal grand jury returned a ten-count
    indictment charging both Knight and Thorpe with six D.C.
    Code felony offenses and the federal offense of being a felon
    in possession of a firearm. A jury found them guilty as
    6
    charged, and the district court sentenced Knight to 268 months’
    imprisonment (22 years and 4 months) and Thorpe to 300
    months’ imprisonment (25 years).
    On direct appeal from their convictions, Knight and
    Thorpe contended, in part, that each had received ineffective
    assistance of counsel in the Superior Court regarding the plea
    offer. See Knight, 824 F.3d at 1109. This court determined
    that “Knight’s and Thorpe’s claims of ineffective assistance are
    colorable” and remanded them to the district court. Id. at 1113.
    After a three-day evidentiary hearing, at which Knight and
    Thorpe and their counsel testified, the district court denied
    relief. Although determining that Knight’s counsel had
    performed deficiently, the court concluded that Knight had not
    been prejudiced. The court noted the lack of contemporaneous
    evidence that Knight would have accepted the plea offer in
    view of evidence that Knight (1) was focused on obtaining
    pretrial release so that he could be with his wife for the birth of
    their child, which would not have been possible if he accepted
    the plea offer; (2) had told counsel he wanted to go to trial as
    he was hopeful that the victim of the crimes would not testify
    against him; and (3) had rejected a plea offer on the federal
    charges. The court also determined that Thorpe’s counsel’s
    performance was not deficient, rejecting the argument that a
    wired plea offer required his counsel to meet with Knight’s
    counsel to discuss the plea offer. The court did not address the
    issue of prejudice to Thorpe.
    Knight and Thorpe appeal, and the court’s review of the
    district court’s denial of their ineffective assistance of counsel
    claims is de novo. United States v. Abney, 
    812 F.3d 1079
    ,
    1086–87 (D.C. Cir. 2016). The district court’s subsidiary
    factual findings are reviewed for clear error. See id. at 1087.
    7
    II.
    “The Sixth Amendment guarantees a defendant the
    effective assistance of counsel at ‘critical stages of a criminal
    proceeding,’ including when he enters a guilty plea.” Lee v.
    United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
    , 1964 (2017) (quoting Lafler v.
    Cooper, 
    566 U.S. 156
    , 165 (2012)). To succeed on a claim of
    ineffective assistance of counsel, a defendant must show that
    (1) his counsel’s performance was deficient, as judged against
    prevailing professional norms under the circumstances, and
    (2) the deficient performance was prejudicial. See Strickland,
    
    466 U.S. at 687
    . To satisfy the prejudice prong, the defendant
    must show that there is a reasonable likelihood that the
    outcome would have been different had the defendant been
    adequately counselled. See Missouri v. Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    ,
    147 (2012).
    More specifically, where a defendant maintains that his
    counsel’s inadequate assistance caused him to proceed to trial
    when he would otherwise have accepted a plea offer, prejudice
    means that “but for the ineffective advice of counsel there is a
    reasonable probability that . . . the defendant would have
    accepted the plea and the prosecution would not have
    withdrawn it . . . , that the court would have accepted its terms,
    and that the conviction or sentence, or both, under the offer’s
    terms would have been less severe than under the judgment and
    sentence that in fact were imposed.” Lafler, 566 U.S. at 164.
    A criminal defendant alleging ineffective assistance of counsel
    generally may not rely solely on post hoc testimony to show
    that he would have accepted the plea offer if he had been
    properly advised. Cf. Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1967; United States v.
    Aguiar, 
    894 F.3d 351
    , 361–62 (D.C. Cir. 2018). At least where
    a defendant has pled guilty and is seeking to show a reasonable
    probability that he would have gone to trial but for counsel’s
    ineffectiveness, the Supreme Court has instructed that
    8
    “[j]udges should . . . look to contemporaneous evidence to
    substantiate a defendant’s expressed preferences.” Lee, 137
    S. Ct. at 1967. Knight and Thorpe do not suggest that this
    principle is inapplicable in their circumstances. Nonetheless,
    although contemporaneous evidence of the defendant’s
    preferences may inform the prejudice inquiry, a defendant is
    not required to have hypothesized, at the time of the plea offer,
    that his attorney might be providing inadequate assistance and
    state that his decision whether or not to accept a plea offer
    would change if that were so. Aguiar, 894 F.3d at 362.
    Further, when a plea offer is wired, a defendant attempting
    to show prejudice “must establish not only that he would have
    taken the plea offer if his counsel had advised him correctly,
    but also either that each of his co-defendants would have
    accepted their respective plea offers, or that the Government
    would have offered [him] an unwired plea.” United States v.
    Gaviria, 
    116 F.3d 1498
    , 1512 (D.C. Cir. 1997).
    A.
    The government does not dispute that Knight’s counsel’s
    performance was constitutionally deficient for failing to
    correctly inform him of the time he would serve for ADW if he
    accepted the plea offer. See United States v. Soto, 
    132 F.3d 56
    ,
    59 (D.C. Cir. 1997). Neither does the government dispute that
    counsel’s performance was constitutionally deficient for
    failing to advise Knight of the worst-case scenario of declining
    the plea offer. See Aguiar, 894 F.3d at 361. Nor does the
    government dispute that Knight’s co-defendant would have
    accepted the wired plea offer had his acceptance not been
    foreclosed by Knight’s rejection of the offer. Rather, the
    government disputes Knight’s contention that he was
    prejudiced by his counsel’s deficient performance. In the
    government’s view, Knight has not established Strickland
    9
    prejudice because he has presented no contemporaneous
    evidence to show a reasonable probability that he would have
    accepted the plea offer absent counsel’s errors and, in fact, the
    contemporaneous evidence that did exist indicated Knight
    would not have accepted the plea even if adequately
    counselled.
    But the government, like the district court, overlooks the
    direct negative impact that counsel’s shortcomings had on
    Knight’s understanding of his circumstances at the time he was
    deciding whether to accept the plea offer. Counsel’s inaccurate
    appraisal of pleading to ADW and failure to alert Knight to the
    worst-case scenario of rejecting the plea offer left Knight
    unable to make an intelligent decision about whether to accept
    the plea offer. Knight’s statements and his preferences at the
    time he rejected the plea offer must be evaluated in view of his
    erroneous understanding of his circumstances. Further, the
    government, like the district court, ignores key
    contemporaneous evidence suggesting Knight may have
    accepted the plea offer had his counsel performed adequately.
    For these reasons, the district court’s factual findings
    underlying its determination that Knight suffered no prejudice
    are clearly erroneous.
    First, the Superior Court plea offer was contemporaneous
    evidence of a plea offer whose generosity is self-evident from
    the prosecutor’s email to Knight’s counsel and Thorpe’s
    counsel. The email set forth the terms of the plea offer and the
    consequences of its rejection, suggesting that Knight would
    have accepted the offer had he understood how favorable it was
    to him and how unfavorable his sentencing exposure would be
    if he proceeded to trial. The limited exchange that Knight had
    with counsel at the time of the Superior Court plea offer,
    described below, also suggests that he might have been
    amenable to accepting the plea offer even when he wrongly
    10
    believed it carried a ten-year sentence. Combined with
    Knight’s after-the-fact testimony on remand about what he
    would have done had he been correctly and adequately advised
    by counsel regarding the plea offer, the contemporaneous
    evidence before the district court suffices to show a reasonable
    probability that he would have accepted the plea offer if he had
    been advised of its leniency and the sentencing exposure he
    would face as a consequence of rejecting it.
    The generosity of the plea offer is underscored by the
    significant disparity in sentencing exposure between the plea
    offer on the Superior Court charge and the charges that Knight
    faced in federal court. The Superior Court plea offer required
    that Knight and Thorpe each plead guilty to only a single count
    having no statutory minimum sentence, a ten-year maximum,
    and a Superior Court Sentencing Guidelines range of two to six
    years. By proceeding to trial Knight risked a ten-count
    indictment in federal court, dramatically greater sentencing
    exposure, and an actual imposed sentence of more than twenty-
    two years. The prosecutor’s email to counsel forewarned of
    these consequences yet Knight’s counsel never shared that
    information with him. Even absent such forewarning, counsel
    is obligated to advise a client facing criminal charges of what
    the law, including sentencing guidelines, makes “clear” and is
    “‘easily determined’ by competent counsel.” Aguiar, 894 F.3d
    at 359 (quoting standard announced by Supreme Court in
    Padilla v. Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
    , 368–69 (2010)); see also
    Padilla, 
    559 U.S. at 365, 370
    . Because Knight’s counsel did
    not render adequate assistance on key considerations before
    Knight, Knight was not in a position to appreciate the
    generosity of the plea offer or realistically evaluate the
    consequences of rejecting it. This significant sentencing
    disparity is contemporaneous evidence that Knight would have
    accepted the plea offer had counsel correctly apprised him of
    how favorable it was and of the sentencing exposure he would
    11
    face if he declined the offer and went to trial. See Gaviria, 
    116 F.3d at 1513
    . Indeed, both the government and the district
    court characterized the plea offer as “incredibly sweet.”
    Hearing Tr. 50 (May 25, 2017).
    Other circuits have recognized that a disparity in
    sentencing exposure may suffice to show prejudice under the
    second prong of Strickland. See United States v. Herrera, 
    412 F.3d 577
    , 581 (5th Cir. 2005); Griffin v. United States, 
    330 F.3d 733
    , 737–38 (6th Cir. 2003); United States v. Day, 
    969 F.2d 39
    ,
    45–46 (3d Cir. 1992). Although those decisions predate the
    Supreme Court’s decision in Lee, the Supreme Court did
    nothing to undermine the commonsense conclusion that a
    disparity in sentencing exposure is relevant to the prejudice
    inquiry. Indeed, even after Lee, our sister circuits have
    continued to view a severe disparity between the plea offer and
    sentence faced by proceeding to trial as compelling evidence
    that the defendant would have accepted a plea offer but for
    counsel’s constitutionally deficient performance. See, e.g.,
    Dodson v. Ballard, 800 F. App’x 171, 181 (4th Cir. 2020);
    Byrd v. Skipper, 
    940 F.3d 248
    , 259 (6th Cir. 2019). And it is
    telling here, for purposes of establishing a reasonable
    probability, that Knight’s similarly situated wired co-defendant
    who was advised by his counsel of the generosity of the plea
    offer and his potential sentencing exposure if he rejected it,
    wanted to accept the plea offer. This, too, is contemporaneous
    evidence that Knight would also have been inclined to accept
    the offer had he not been misinformed and inadequately
    informed about the plea offer and the enhanced sentencing
    exposure he would face by going to trial and instead received
    the assistance of counsel to which the Constitution entitled him.
    While our dissenting colleague cites Lee for the proposition
    that defendants often weigh differently the respective risks of
    pleading and going to trial, Lee does not question that one co-
    defendant’s willingness to accept a plea offer may tend to show
    12
    that another co-defendant would have taken the same plea
    offer. The record shows that Knight and Thorpe’s criminal
    history categories were only one level apart. See Govt’s Supp.
    Sent. Mem. 2–3 (Nov. 8, 2013). That Thorpe may have
    received a slightly higher sentence than Knight by going to trial
    does not make Thorpe’s willingness to accept the plea offer
    irrelevant to whether there is a reasonable probability that
    Knight would have accepted the offer as well.
    Other evidence contemporaneous to when the plea offer
    was pending in the Superior Court indicates that Knight may
    have been amenable to accepting the plea offer had he been
    properly advised by counsel. Knight explained on remand at
    the ineffective assistance hearing that when his counsel
    informed him the government had extended a plea offer, his
    first question was “how much time do[es] [the government]
    want for that?” Hearing Tr. 19 (May 24, 2017). That question
    suggests that his decision whether to accept the plea offer was
    calibrated to the sentence that he would receive as a result of
    pleading guilty. Knight’s circumstances do not otherwise
    indicate that he was dead-set on going to trial no matter its risks
    and consequences, and he may well have responded to the plea
    offer differently had counsel correctly advised him of its
    sentencing consequences. Instead, he made the decision to
    reject a two-to-six-year sentence plea offer based on the
    understanding that his sentence would be ten years.
    The remainder of Knight’s contemporaneous exchange
    with counsel further indicates a reasonable probability that
    Knight would have accepted the plea offer had counsel
    apprised him of the consequences of declining it. When
    counsel told him that the guilty plea would require ten years’
    imprisonment and Knight responded that he was “not copping
    to that,” counsel interjected: “Well, just hold up, I’m going to
    come over to the jail and talk to you.” 
    Id.
     That statement
    13
    indicated there was more Knight should consider before
    deciding whether to accept the plea offer. Knight’s reply,
    “okay,” 
    id.,
     indicates that although his initial reaction upon
    learning he would have to serve ten years in prison was to reject
    the plea offer, he was amenable to further discussion and
    possibly to changing his mind even under the mistaken
    impression that he would face ten years if he pled guilty. Given
    this exchange, had Knight’s counsel visited him in jail,
    corrected his earlier erroneous advice, and adequately
    counselled him on the sentencing exposure he faced if he
    rejected the plea offer, there is a reasonable probability that
    Knight would have changed his mind, especially given the
    magnitude of the disparity in that exposure as compared to
    accepting the government’s initial offer. After all, he was
    expecting to have a child shortly enter his life and presumably
    would not have preferred to be in prison during the entirety of
    his child’s youth.
    Despite this record evidence, the government insists that
    the only evidence Knight would have accepted the plea offer
    was his after-the-fact testimony at the ineffective assistance
    hearing. In the government’s view, what contemporaneous
    evidence did exist of Knight’s preferences at the time of the
    plea offer suggests that he would not have accepted it because
    Knight told counsel that he wanted to be released to attend his
    child’s birth. Under the terms of the plea offer, he would not
    have been able to be present. Also, the government notes,
    Knight was hopeful that the victim of the crimes would not
    testify against him at a trial.
    Admittedly, these are considerations that would have
    weighed in favor of Knight rejecting the plea offer and
    proceeding to trial. Because one of the terms of that offer was
    that he would be unable to seek to modify the conditions of his
    presentence detention, accepting the offer would have meant
    14
    he would not have been able to obtain immediate release for
    the birth of his child. And his reported optimism that a key
    witness would not testify against him at trial might have
    tempted him to take his chances in the hope of obtaining an
    acquittal. Yet none of this evidence precludes there being a
    reasonable probability that Knight, upon being properly
    advised by counsel, including a realistic assessment of whether
    a key government witness would not testify at trial, would have
    accepted the generous plea offer. Knight was under the
    erroneous impression that accepting the plea offer came with
    ten years’ imprisonment, and counsel failed to advise him of
    the worst-case scenario consequences of declining the plea
    offer. Given that the Supreme Court has acknowledged that
    “the possibility of even a highly improbable result may be
    pertinent to the extent it would have affected [a defendant’s]
    decisionmaking,” Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1967, Knight’s
    considerable misunderstanding of his circumstances, caused by
    counsel’s omissions and misinformation, is relevant to whether
    Knight would have accepted the plea offer but for counsel’s
    ineffectiveness.
    Furthermore, to the extent some evidence suggests that
    Knight was not inclined to accept the Superior Court plea offer,
    it is of limited value because it is infected by counsel’s deficient
    performance. What the evidence shows is that under what he
    mistakenly understood to be the circumstances, Knight, unlike
    his co-defendant Thorpe, did not want to accept a generous plea
    offer. Yet the record also shows that Knight’s understanding,
    unlike his co-defendant’s, diverged significantly from his
    actual situation. The priority that Knight placed on being
    present at his child’s birth arose in the context of thinking the
    plea offer required ten years’ imprisonment. His assessment of
    what was in his best interests could well have changed had he
    been correctly advised of the consequences of accepting and of
    rejecting the plea offer. Given the severity of the charges that
    15
    Knight faced, along with the fact that his alleged commission
    of the offense while using a firearm and on supervised release
    for a prior federal drug conviction weighed in favor of
    detention, the prospect that he would be able to obtain pretrial
    release was likely illusory, as adequate counsel could have
    discussed with him. See, e.g., United States v. Smith, 
    79 F.3d 1208
    , 1210–11 (D.C. Cir. 1996); United States v. Peralta,
    
    849 F.2d 625
    , 626 (D.C. Cir. 1988). So too, given the
    government’s interest in having Peters’ testimony as the victim
    of the crimes, was Knight’s speculation that Peters would not
    testify against him at trial. Had Knight received proper advice
    from his counsel at the time of the plea offer, he would have
    learned these were unlikely prospects.
    In short, that Knight was focused on obtaining release says
    little about what he would have done had he been adequately
    advised of the consequences of declining the plea offer. In
    analyzing whether a defendant had suffered prejudice from his
    attorney’s failure to inform him of his sentencing exposure if
    he declined the government’s plea offer, this court has aptly
    observed: “[T]he choices that [the defendant] actually made do
    not necessarily shed any useful light on the choices that he
    would have made if he had been properly advised.” United
    States v. Thompson, 
    27 F.3d 671
    , 677 (D.C. Cir. 1994). The
    same is true here.
    Nor does the absence of unequivocal contemporaneous
    evidence that Knight affirmatively wanted a plea deal mean
    that he cannot show a reasonable probability that he would
    have accepted the plea offer if he had been provided the
    effective assistance of counsel. As this court explained, “[t]he
    Supreme Court did not suggest in Lee that a defendant must
    hypothesize his counsel’s advice might be erroneous and state
    contemporaneously that his plea decision would differ if that
    were so.” Aguiar, 894 F.3d at 362 (discussing Lee, 
    137 S. Ct. 16
    at 1967–68). Here, as in Aguiar, “[t]he gravamen of [Knight’s]
    claim is that because of [his] counsel’s deficiency, he had no
    reason to suspect he needed to make such a statement, and thus
    did not know the full consequences of his decision to reject the
    plea.” 
    Id.
     At the time of the Superior Court plea offer, with
    the misinformation and insufficient information he had
    received, Knight could not intelligently assess whether to
    accept the offer. To meet his burden, Knight was not required
    to show either that he wanted to accept the plea offer but was
    dissuaded by counsel, or that he certainly would have accepted
    the offer but for counsel’s ineffectiveness. Instead, he needed
    to show only that there was a reasonable probability that he
    would have accepted the plea offer were it not for his counsel’s
    inadequate assistance.
    The government also maintains that Knight’s subsequent
    rejection of a plea offer in his federal case shows that he was
    not amenable to any kind of plea deal and thus would not have
    accepted the Superior Court plea offer even if properly advised
    by counsel.      It is debatable whether this evidence is
    contemporaneous because the government made the federal
    court plea offer six months after Knight and Thorpe rejected
    the Superior Court plea offer. At most it sheds only limited
    light on whether Knight would have accepted the Superior
    Court plea offer had his counsel provided proper assistance
    because the plea offer on the federal charges was considerably
    less attractive. In federal court, Knight would have been
    required to plead guilty to three counts carrying a mandatory
    minimum sentence of five years and a cumulative maximum
    sentence of 45 years. The Superior Court plea offer required
    Knight to plead guilty to a single count that carried no
    mandatory minimum and a ten-year maximum sentence, with
    a Sentencing Guidelines range of two to six years. The
    government, therefore, puts too much weight on his rejection
    of the federal plea in arguing that because Knight declined this
    17
    plea offer, he would not have accepted any plea offer.
    Moreover, Thorpe’s willingness to accept the plea offer in
    Superior Court counsels against reading too much into
    Knight’s rejection of the subsequent plea offer in his federal
    case, for Thorpe also rejected the federal court offer. That
    Thorpe did so, and that he would have accepted the Superior
    Court offer, suggests that Knight might have had good reason
    for rejecting the federal court offer regardless of whether he
    would have accepted the Superior Court offer had he been
    properly advised by his counsel.
    In sum, it is undisputed by the district court and the
    government that Knight’s counsel’s performance was
    deficient. Those deficiencies distorted Knight’s understanding
    of his circumstances, rendering it impossible for him to make
    an intelligent decision about whether to accept a generous plea
    offer. Consequently, a proper evaluation of the evidence of
    Knight’s interests and desires to go to trial and to be present at
    the birth of his child required the district court to consider the
    effect of his counsel’s failings. The evidence before the district
    court sufficed to establish a reasonably probability that Knight,
    like Thorpe, would have accepted the plea offer. Because the
    district court’s subsidiary findings regarding Knight’s desire to
    be at his child’s birth and to go to trial failed to account for the
    direct impact of his counsel’s deficient performance, those
    findings, to the extent they were the basis for the district court’s
    determination that Knight failed to show prejudice, are clearly
    erroneous. And because the government has never suggested
    that it would have rescinded the offer, or that the Superior
    Court would not have accepted the offer, those arguments are
    forfeited. See Carducci v. Regan, 
    714 F.3d 171
    , 177 (D.C. Cir.
    1983). Upon review of the prejudice determination, we
    therefore reverse the district court’s denial of Knight’s
    Strickland claim.
    18
    B.
    In contrast, we agree with the district court that Thorpe did
    not receive ineffective assistance of counsel. Unlike Knight’s
    counsel, Thorpe’s counsel met with his client at least twice in
    jail prior to the February 19 preliminary hearing to discuss the
    plea offer. During these conversations, Thorpe’s counsel
    provided Thorpe with all of the information necessary to make
    an intelligent decision whether or not to accept the plea offer,
    including the sentencing range for the ADW charge, the wired
    nature of the plea offer, and the possibility of federal charges
    with substantially greater sentencing exposure if he rejected the
    plea offer. Further, Thorpe’s counsel informed Thorpe that he
    had learned from Knight’s counsel that Knight was unlikely to
    accept the plea offer. And, consistent with the practice of the
    D.C. Public Defenders Service where we worked, Thorpe’s
    counsel asked the government to unwire the plea offer. Thus,
    because this conduct “falls within the wide range of reasonable
    professional assistance,” Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 689
    , Thorpe
    did not receive constitutionally deficient performance from his
    counsel. It follows that Thorpe cannot establish a violation of
    his Sixth Amendment rights.
    III.
    “Sixth Amendment remedies should be ‘tailored to the
    injury suffered from the constitutional violation and should not
    unnecessarily infringe on competing interests,’” Lafler, 566
    U.S. at 170 (quoting United States v. Morrison, 
    449 U.S. 361
    ,
    364 (1981)), and there is considerable discretion to fashion
    such a remedy, see id. at 171. Although the remedy for a Sixth
    Amendment violation should not “grant a windfall to the
    defendant or needlessly squander the considerable resources
    the State properly invested in the criminal prosecution,” it
    “must ‘neutralize the taint’ of [the] constitutional violation.”
    19
    Id. at 170 (quoting Morrison, 
    449 U.S. at 365
    ). When a Sixth
    Amendment deprivation causes a defendant to reject “an offer
    . . . for a guilty plea to a count or counts less serious than the
    ones for which [he] was convicted” at trial, “resentencing alone
    [based on the convictions at trial] will not be full redress for the
    constitutional injury.” Id. at 171. “In these circumstances, the
    proper exercise of discretion to remedy the constitutional injury
    may be to require the prosecution to reoffer the plea proposal.”
    Id.
    This is such a case, for the appropriate remedy calls upon
    the government to reoffer the original plea deal to Knight.
    While the district court has some discretion to accept or reject
    the plea, see Lafler, 
    566 U.S. at 172
    , the Supreme Court in
    Lafler declined to define the boundaries of that discretion, 
    id.,
    and so do we here. But we do note that there is nothing in
    Lafler to indicate that the breadth of the district court’s
    discretion is as great as our dissenting colleague suggests. See
    Dis. Op. at 14–15. Rather, the Court in Lafler indicated that
    the trial court’s discretion derives from the court rule governing
    its acceptance or rejection of plea agreements. 566 U.S. at 174
    (citing Mich. Ct. Rule 6.302(C)(3) (2011)). Here, that rule is
    Rule 11 of the Federal Rules of Criminal Procedure, under
    which “a district court lacks authority to reject a proposed
    agreement based on mere disagreement with a prosecutor’s
    underlying charging decisions.” United States v. Fokker Servs.
    B.V., 
    818 F.3d 733
    , 745 (D.C. Cir. 2016) (citing United States
    v. Ammidown, 
    497 F.2d 615
    , 622 (D.C. Cir. 1973)). And Lafler
    certainly did not indicate that the impossibility of restoring to
    the government the costs of trying a defendant is grounds alone
    to deny that defendant any remedy for the violation of his Sixth
    Amendment rights. Indeed, such a rule would threaten to
    render the remedy articulated in Lafler a nullity because in
    virtually every Lafler-type case the government expends
    significant resources at trial as a result of the defendant’s
    20
    counsel’s incompetent performance. To the contrary, the Court
    in Lafler, 556 U.S. at 172, noted that in fashioning its remedy
    the trial court should “find[] a remedy that does not require the
    prosecution to incur the expense of conducting a new trial,”
    even though “[t]he time continuum makes it difficult to restore
    the [parties] to the precise positions they [previously]
    occupied.” In doing so, the trial court “must weigh various
    factors,” id. at 171, and may “consult” the respective positions
    occupied by the defendant and prosecution before the rejection
    of the plea as a “baseline,” id. at 172. Nor would enforcement
    of the plea agreement on remand “dramatically” benefit Knight
    to the detriment of the government, Dis. Op. at 15, for although
    the government incurred the expense of proceeding to trial as a
    result of Knight’s counsel’s ineffective assistance, that must be
    balanced against the fact that Knight’s term of imprisonment
    has already exceeded the upper bound of the Superior Court
    Sentencing Guidelines range for the ADW charge set forth in
    the plea offer.
    According to Thorpe, even if his counsel was not deficient,
    the government must nonetheless reoffer the plea to both
    defendants, essentially because the generous plea offer in the
    Superior Court was wired. As Thorpe sees it, despite receiving
    constitutionally adequate counsel, he has suffered a Sixth
    Amendment injury “identical” to Knight because the
    ineffective assistance of Knight’s counsel prevented him from
    obtaining the benefits of the plea offer. Reply Br. 18. But
    although Thorpe expressed his desire to accept the plea offer
    from the outset, he knew that the plea offer was conditioned on
    both defendants accepting it. Thorpe’s ability to accept the
    wired plea offer was thwarted by Knight’s uninformed decision
    to reject it. He was also thwarted by the government’s refusal
    to unwire the defendants so he could accept the plea offer. Both
    defendants were convicted by a jury in federal court, and their
    convictions were affirmed on direct appeal, save for the remand
    21
    on their ineffective assistance of counsel claims. In these
    circumstances, where Thorpe’s Sixth Amendment rights were
    not violated, the court is unaware of any precedent granting
    relief to one defendant because a co-defendant received the
    ineffective assistance of counsel. Nor does it seem appropriate
    to order the government to reoffer a wired plea in order to
    restore Knight to his original position because were this a
    different case and Knight’s co-defendant had been acquitted at
    trial, he would certainly refuse to accept the reissued wired
    plea, and Knight’s constitutional injury would not be remedied
    at all.
    The appropriate remedy for a defendant who received a
    wired plea offer but was prevented from taking it solely by his
    counsel’s ineffectiveness is simply to order the government to
    extend the offer to that defendant again, without regard to
    whether his co-defendant would be presently willing to accept
    the offer. Although this court cannot order that it do so, the
    government has the discretion to ameliorate any injustice that
    would result from permitting the inadequately counseled
    defendant to accept the original plea offer but not the co-
    defendant whose counsel’s performance was adequate. Even
    now, the prosecution may seek dismissal of some or all of the
    charges against Thorpe under Rule 48(a) of the Federal Rules
    of Criminal Procedure. See, e.g., Rinaldi v. United States, 
    434 U.S. 22
     (1977).
    IV.
    Our dissenting colleague would resolve this appeal by
    creating a novel legal framework making it more difficult than
    current law requires for a defendant to prove the denial of the
    constitutional right to the effective assistance of counsel. This
    is accomplished mostly by three means: misreading Supreme
    Court precedent, creating new law out of whole cloth contrary
    22
    to precedent, and ignoring on-point precedent of this court.
    These deviations from the applicable law render useless the
    usual comparative analysis between the opinion of the court
    and the dissent but do not obviate the need to respond.
    First, our dissenting colleague states that Lee “strongly
    suggests” that the court’s prejudice analysis may not take
    account of the generosity of the plea deal in its prejudice
    analysis, Dis. Op. at 4. Nothing in Lee implies that disparity in
    sentencing exposure can never qualify as contemporaneous
    evidence. In Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1963, the defendant pled guilty
    to a charge that, unbeknownst to him because of his counsel’s
    ineffective assistance, would result in his mandatory
    deportation. There was “no question” that deportation was the
    paramount consideration for Lee in deciding whether to plead
    guilty. Id. at 1967. He sought to vacate the plea and proceed
    to trial, even though he had “no viable defense” to the charge,
    faced near-certain conviction by a jury, and would thereafter
    face deportation on top of a likely longer prison sentence. See
    id. at 1966–67. In deciding whether to accept the plea offer
    had he been properly advised, Lee therefore would have faced
    a choice between “certainly” being deported if he pled guilty
    and “[a]lmost certainly” being deported if he went to trial. Id.
    at 1968. Thus, as to the “determinative issue” in Lee’s decision
    whether to accept the plea offer, id., there was barely any
    disparity at all — only the small difference between certainty
    and almost-certainty. In Lee, therefore, the Court had no
    occasion to consider whether a disparity in outcomes between
    accepting a plea offer and proceeding to trial could bear on the
    Strickland prejudice analysis.
    Second, contrary to our dissenting colleague, reliance on
    testimony adduced at the evidentiary hearing does not run afoul
    of Lee. See Dis. Op. at 6–7. At most, Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1967,
    proscribed courts from relying “solely” on “post hoc assertions
    23
    from a defendant about how he would have pleaded.” The
    Supreme Court in Lee did not, however, impose a blanket ban
    on considering testimony adduced at an evidentiary hearing
    about temporally contemporaneous events. The Supreme
    Court has observed that a trial record is “not developed
    precisely for the object of litigating or preserving [an
    ineffective assistance] claim and thus [is] often incomplete or
    inadequate for this purpose.” Massaro v. United States, 
    538 U.S. 500
    , 504–05 (2003). As a result, in deciding an ineffective
    assistance claim, the court “may take testimony from witnesses
    for the defendant and the prosecution and from the counsel
    alleged to have rendered the deficient performance.” 
    Id. at 505
    .
    Nor, as the dissent suggests, is such properly considered
    testimony limited to the defendant’s production of a
    contemporaneous “transcript, letter, or recording,” should he be
    lucky enough to have one. Dis. Op. at 6. Such a test is nowhere
    required or suggested or even hinted at in Lee, much less in
    supporting authority. 
    Id.
     Our dissenting colleague protests that
    he has been misunderstood, noting he would not exclude plea
    generosity evidence or evidence adduced at an evidentiary
    hearing. Dis. Op. at 7 n.1. But this is to no avail for he still
    views such not to be “contemporaneous evidence” as he defines
    it and so insufficient to show prejudice.
    Third, our dissenting colleague acknowledges that this
    court reviews the district court’s prejudice decision de novo but
    finds no clear error in the district court’s factual finding that
    Knight offered no contemporaneous evidence, a subject that
    this court also reviews de novo. Abney, 812 F.3d at 1087; see
    also id. at 1093–94; United States v. Toms, 
    396 F.3d 427
    , 432
    (D.C. Cir. 2005). Our colleague either ignores the evidence
    before the district court (or belittles it as “snippets,” Dis. Op.
    at 12), or redefines “contemporaneous evidence” as limited to
    physical evidence or requires statements by a defendant at the
    time that this court has held are not required. Dis. Op. at 6–7.
    24
    The flawed logic on which the district court proceeded, see
    Thompson, 
    27 F.3d at 677
    , is highlighted when the dissent too
    points to Knight’s refusal to enter a plea to the federal charges,
    Dis. Op. at 10. In applying common sense in the government’s
    favor, see id. at 13, while refusing to consider Knight’s actions
    contextually, see id. at 11–12 — that is, in the context of his
    ignorance of his circumstances as a result of his counsel’s
    deficient advice — our colleague relies on generalizations that
    can only be considered anecdotal absent record support.
    Accordingly, we affirm the order denying Thorpe’s Sixth
    Amendment challenge but reverse the denial of Knight’s Sixth
    Amendment challenge and remand his case to the district court
    to provide a remedy consistent with this opinion.
    KATSAS, Circuit Judge, dissenting in part: After a jury
    convicted him of serious crimes, Melvin Knight claimed that
    bad legal advice had caused him to reject a favorable plea offer.
    Following an evidentiary hearing on this claim, the district
    court found no reasonable probability that Knight would have
    accepted the plea offer had he received adequate advice. That
    finding was not clearly erroneous, and it establishes that Knight
    did not receive ineffective assistance of counsel.
    I
    On January 28, 2013, Knight and Aaron Thorpe violently
    kidnapped Edmund Peters and Luttitia Fortune. Knight and
    Thorpe assaulted their victims outdoors, fired a gunshot, forced
    their way into Peters’s apartment, tied up the victims, and beat
    Peters while attempting to steal his money and drugs. They
    promised to kill Peters, and Thorpe placed the barrel of his gun
    against Peters’s head. When police surrounded the apartment,
    Knight and Thorpe untied the victims, concocted a story of
    friendly sparring, and told the victims to play along. Peters
    complied out of fear that Knight would further harm him.
    Knight told Peters that he would not go to prison over the
    kidnapping, which Peters took as another threat. The police
    were not fooled.
    Knight and Thorpe initially were charged with armed
    kidnapping in D.C. Superior Court. On January 31, 2013, the
    government offered Knight and Thorpe a wired plea deal—one
    that required acceptance by both defendants. If each defendant
    would plead guilty to one count of assault with a dangerous
    weapon, the government would forgo various other, more
    serious charges. While the offer was outstanding, Knight’s
    counsel advised Knight that if he accepted the plea offer, he
    would likely face ten years of imprisonment. In fact, ten years
    was the statutory maximum for assault with a dangerous
    weapon, while the recommended sentencing guideline range
    would have been two to six years. Counsel also failed to advise
    2
    that Knight would face substantially greater exposure if he
    rejected the plea offer and the government chose to pursue the
    further charges. Knight rejected the offer, which prevented
    Thorpe from accepting it.
    The government dismissed the case in Superior Court and
    obtained a federal indictment. Knight received a different
    counsel for district court. Knight and Thorpe each was charged
    with one count of possessing a firearm as a felon, two counts
    of possessing a firearm during a crime of violence, two counts
    of armed kidnapping, one count of armed burglary, one count
    of assault with a dangerous weapon, one count of obstruction,
    and one count of conspiracy. The jury convicted on all counts,
    and Knight and Thorpe received prison sentences of 268 and
    300 months, respectively. On direct review, we rejected
    various challenges to the convictions and to Thorpe’s sentence,
    but we remanded the case for factual development of claims
    that each defendant’s counsel had provided ineffective
    assistance during the plea negotiations in Superior Court.
    United States v. Knight, 
    824 F.3d 1105
     (D.C. Cir. 2016).
    On remand, the district court held three days of evidentiary
    hearings on the ineffective-assistance claims. Knight and
    Thorpe testified at length, as did their respective Superior Court
    counsel and a custodian of D.C. jail records. The court ordered
    production of the initial plea offer, transcripts memorializing
    the plea discussions in Superior Court and district court, and
    other documents bearing on the contested representations.
    Knight also introduced an ethics complaint that he had filed
    against his Superior Court counsel.
    After reviewing all this evidence, the district court rejected
    the claims of both defendants. United States v. Thorpe, No. 13-
    cr-131, 
    2019 WL 1117197
     (D.D.C. Mar. 11, 2019). The court
    found that Knight’s counsel performed deficiently in
    3
    connection with the plea offer, but it found no reasonable
    probability that Knight would have accepted the offer had he
    received adequate advice. 
    Id.
     at *8–10. The court also found
    that Thorpe’s counsel did not perform deficiently. Id. at *11.
    II
    The Sixth Amendment confers upon criminal defendants a
    right “to have the Assistance of Counsel.” The Supreme Court
    has held that “Assistance” means effective assistance.
    Strickland v. Washington, 
    466 U.S. 668
     (1984). To establish a
    violation of this right, the defendant must prove both that his
    counsel performed deficiently and that this caused prejudice.
    
    Id. at 687
    . To prove prejudice, the defendant must show a
    reasonable probability that the deficient performance changed
    the result of the proceeding. See 
    id. at 694
    . Thus, for claims
    that deficient advice caused the defendant to reject a plea offer,
    the defendant must show a reasonable probability that he would
    have accepted the offer had he received adequate advice.
    Lafler v. Cooper, 
    566 U.S. 156
    , 164 (2012).
    This case turns on whether Knight established a reasonable
    probability that he would have accepted the Superior Court
    plea offer if he had received proper advice. For two reasons, I
    would affirm the district court’s conclusion that Knight failed
    to meet his burden of proof on this question.
    A
    In Lee v. United States, 
    137 S. Ct. 1958
     (2017), the
    Supreme Court imposed a high evidentiary hurdle for
    defendants seeking to undo their plea decisions through claims
    of ineffective assistance. The Court held that the defendant
    must adduce evidence contemporaneous with the plea decision:
    “Courts should not upset a plea solely because of post hoc
    4
    assertions from a defendant about how he would have pleaded
    but for his attorney’s deficiencies. Judges should instead look
    to contemporaneous evidence to substantiate a defendant’s
    expressed preferences.” Id. at 1967. Although Lee involved a
    defendant seeking to undo a prior plea acceptance, the Court’s
    reasoning fully applies to defendants seeking to undo a prior
    plea rejection. We have recognized that Lee applies in both
    contexts. See, e.g., United States v. Aguiar, 
    894 F.3d 351
    , 361–
    62 (D.C. Cir. 2018).
    No contemporaneous evidence suggests that Knight would
    have accepted the plea offer had he received proper advice. In
    this Court, Knight’s current counsel acknowledged that the
    contemporaneous evidence was “nearly useless” to show
    prejudice. Oral Arg. at 4:45. Yet my colleagues invoke two
    categories of evidence that they say are both contemporaneous
    and weighty enough to show prejudice.
    First, my colleagues reason that the “generosity” of the
    Superior Court plea offer was itself contemporaneous evidence
    of prejudice. Ante, at 9. But Lee strongly suggests otherwise.
    There, the Supreme Court did not make its own abstract
    assessment of how favorable the disputed plea was to the
    defendant. Nor did the Court rest on the defendant’s
    undisputed testimony, at a post-conviction hearing, that he
    would have rejected the plea offer had he known that it would
    lead to mandatory deportation. See 137 S. Ct. at 1967–68.
    Instead, the Court insisted on corroborating evidence
    “contemporaneous” with the plea itself—there, the defendant’s
    specific statements during his plea colloquy that any risk of
    deportation would have affected his plea decision. See id. at
    1968. And the Court discounted objective evidence that the
    accepted plea was favorable to the defendant given the very
    high likelihood of a conviction. On that point, the Court
    stressed that defendants assess trial risks differently, and even
    5
    a defendant “almost certain” to be convicted could rationally
    reject a plea. Id. at 1968 (cleaned up).
    Moreover, there are good reasons for insisting on
    contemporaneous evidence beyond an assessment of how
    generous a plea offer appears after-the-fact. Plea deals secure
    important benefits for the government. They eliminate the time
    and expense of developing and trying cases, which would
    otherwise overwhelm a judicial system in which almost 98
    percent of convictions are secured through guilty pleas. See
    Statistical Tables for the Federal Judiciary, tbl. D-4 (2019).
    They also eliminate the otherwise inescapable risk of outright
    acquittals. It is hardly surprising that the government offers
    significant benefits in return for guilty pleas—and, therefore,
    that defendants who “take their case[s] to trial and lose receive
    longer sentences” than those who plead guilty. Missouri v.
    Frye, 
    566 U.S. 134
    , 144 (2012) (quotation marks omitted).
    Perhaps this plea offer was unusually generous, but Knight has
    not made that case. And if any large disparity in exposure
    qualifies as contemporaneous evidence of prejudice, then we
    have opened the floodgates, all but eliminating prejudice as an
    independent element for Lafler claims. That is precisely the
    opposite of what the Supreme Court sought to accomplish in
    Lee, which stressed that “[s]urmounting Strickland’s high bar
    is never an easy task,” 137 S. Ct. at 1967 (quotation marks
    omitted), and which imposed a contemporaneous-evidence
    requirement to keep it that way.
    My colleagues cite out-of-circuit cases for the proposition
    that a “disparity in sentencing exposure” may show prejudice.
    Ante, at 11. But three of those cases were decided before Lee
    established the requirement of contemporaneous corroborating
    evidence. United States v. Herrera, 
    412 F.3d 577
    , 582 (5th Cir.
    2005); Griffin v. United States, 
    330 F.3d 733
    , 739 (6th Cir.
    2003); United States v. Day, 
    969 F.2d 39
    , 45–47 (3d Cir. 1992).
    6
    A fourth rested on the defendant’s “long history of entering into
    plea agreements in prior cases.” Dodson v. Ballard, 800 F.
    App’x 171, 180–81 (4th Cir. 2020). In a fifth, the defendant
    “specifically asked” his counsel about pleading guilty, yet
    counsel promised that going to trial would be a “home run.”
    Byrd v. Skipper, 
    940 F.3d 248
    , 258–59 (6th Cir. 2019).
    Nothing like that happened here.
    My colleagues cite one consideration specific to the plea
    offer in this case—that Thorpe wanted to accept it. Ante, at 11–
    12. That does not count for much, as defendants often weigh
    differently the respective risks of pleading and going to trial.
    See Lee, 137 S. Ct. at 1968–69. Moreover, Thorpe had “a more
    significant criminal history than Knight,” which substantially
    increased his downside risk at trial. Knight, 824 F.3d at 1111.
    Thorpe’s preferences thus do not shed much light on Knight’s.
    Second, my colleagues conclude that Knight’s testimony
    at the 2017 ineffective-assistance hearing qualifies as
    contemporaneous evidence. Ante, at 12–13. It does not. At
    that hearing, conducted years after Knight had been convicted
    and sentenced, Knight testified about conversations with his
    lawyer during the 2013 plea negotiations. This may be
    evidence about events contemporaneous with the plea offer.
    But it is not “contemporaneous evidence” as opposed to “post
    hoc assertions from a defendant about how he would have
    pleaded but for his attorney’s deficiencies.” Lee, 137 S. Ct. at
    1967. “Contemporaneous evidence” would be something akin
    to the statements made by Lee “at his plea colloquy,” which
    sufficed to corroborate his later post-conviction testimony. See
    id. at 1968. Here, Knight presented no evidence generated
    contemporaneously with the plea negotiations—such as a
    transcript, letter, or recording—to support his later contentions
    about his preferences at the time. His 2017 testimony, about
    the 2013 plea offer, was not “contemporaneous evidence.”
    7
    To downplay the need for contemporaneous evidence, my
    colleagues invoke Aguiar. Ante, at 15–16. There, we held that
    a defendant does not need contemporaneous evidence to secure
    “an evidentiary hearing to prove his claim.” 894 F.3d at 361–
    62. But we expressly declined to address how the defendant
    could “satisf[y] his ultimate burden of proof.” Id. We also
    observed that Lee does not require a defendant to “hypothesize
    his counsel’s advice might be erroneous and state
    contemporaneously that his plea decision would differ if that
    were so.” Id. at 362. Perhaps not, but Lee does require the
    defendant to build a prejudice case consisting of more than just
    post-conviction testimony—given after the defendant has
    taken his shot at acquittal—plus the near truism that plea deals
    produce much lower sentences than do convictions after trial.
    Because Knight presented no contemporaneous evidence
    that he would have accepted the Superior Court plea offer but
    for bad legal advice, we should reject his post hoc attempt to
    undo his plea decision.1
    1
    My colleagues characterize this dissent as saying that courts
    may not consider “the generosity of the plea deal” or “testimony
    adduced at an evidentiary hearing” post-conviction. Ante, at 22–23.
    To the contrary, I have simply explained that post-conviction
    testimony is not contemporaneous evidence. And because it cannot
    suffice to show prejudice under Lee, then neither can the formula
    embraced by my colleagues: post-conviction testimony plus the
    truism that the defendant would have received a much shorter
    sentence had he accepted the plea offer.
    8
    B
    Even overlooking the lack of contemporaneous evidence,
    the district court permissibly concluded that Knight had failed
    to show prejudice.
    1
    We review the ultimate question of prejudice de novo,
    United States v. Abney, 
    812 F.3d 1079
    , 1086–87 (D.C. Cir.
    2016), but “the district court’s factual findings made in the
    course of judging an ineffective assistance of counsel claim
    may be set aside only if clearly erroneous,” United States v.
    Mathis, 
    503 F.3d 150
    , 151 (D.C. Cir. 2007). Strickland itself
    makes clear that district-court “findings of fact made in the
    course of deciding an ineffectiveness claim” are “subject to the
    clearly erroneous standard” of review. 
    466 U.S. at 698
    .
    According to the district court, Knight failed to show a
    reasonable probability that he would have accepted the plea
    offer had he received proper advice. 
    2019 WL 1117197
    , at
    *10. This was a finding of fact, not a legal statement about
    what constitutes Strickland prejudice. In United States v.
    Thompson, 
    27 F.3d 671
     (D.C. Cir. 1994), we held that a district
    court’s determination “whether there was a ‘reasonable
    probability’ that [the defendant], if properly advised, would
    have pleaded guilty” in time to qualify for a sentencing
    reduction was a “factual finding” to be reviewed for clear error.
    
    Id. at 677
     (quoting Strickland, 
    466 U.S. at 694
    ). Likewise, we
    have treated as factual, and subjected to clear-error review,
    determinations whether the government would have offered a
    better plea deal but for defense counsel’s deficient
    performance, see Mathis, 
    503 F.3d at 152
    , and whether a
    defendant accepting a plea deal would have been convicted had
    he gone to trial, see United States v. Del Rosario, 
    902 F.2d 55
    ,
    9
    58 (D.C. Cir. 1990), abrogated on other grounds by Padilla v.
    Kentucky, 
    559 U.S. 356
     (2010). Other circuits have held that
    the question whether a defendant would have accepted a plea
    offer if properly advised is a factual one. See, e.g., Johnson v.
    Genovese, 
    924 F.3d 929
    , 938–39 (6th Cir. 2019); United States
    v. Scribner, 
    832 F.3d 252
    , 258 & n.4 (5th Cir. 2016);
    Merzbacher v. Shearin, 
    706 F.3d 356
    , 366–68 (4th Cir. 2013).
    The latter cases arose on collateral review, but the distinction
    between direct and collateral review has no bearing on whether
    the question at issue is legal or factual.
    Common sense reinforces this view. The question whether
    Knight would have accepted the plea offer had he been
    properly advised has no impact on other cases. It involves no
    normative judgments. And it rests on “the credibility of
    witnesses and therefore turns largely on an evaluation of
    demeanor.” Miller v. Fenton, 
    474 U.S. 104
    , 114 (1985). The
    only possible justification for reviewing this finding de novo is
    that the finding effectively controls the question of Strickland
    prejudice. But it is “well established” that “an issue does not
    lose its factual character merely because its resolution is
    dispositive of the ultimate constitutional question.” 
    Id. at 113
    .
    For these reasons, I would review the district court’s
    determination only for clear error.
    2
    “A finding is ‘clearly erroneous’ when although there is
    evidence to support it, the reviewing court on the entire
    evidence is left with the definite and firm conviction that a
    mistake has been committed.” United States v. U.S. Gypsum
    Co., 
    333 U.S. 364
    , 395 (1948). We apply this deferential
    standard because district courts are “best suited to developing
    the facts” bearing on ineffective-assistance claims. Massaro v.
    United States, 
    538 U.S. 500
    , 505 (2003). We owe even
    10
    “greater deference” when factual findings rest on credibility
    determinations, “for only the trial judge can be aware of the
    variations in demeanor and tone of voice that bear so heavily
    on the listener’s understanding of and belief in what is said.”
    Anderson v. Bessemer City, 
    470 U.S. 564
    , 575 (1985).
    The critical finding here—that Knight was unlikely to
    accept the plea offer even if he had received adequate advice—
    is not clearly erroneous.
    First, at a June 4, 2013 status hearing in district court, the
    prosecutor memorialized the defendants’ firm desire to go to
    trial: “I have talked to defense counsel in this case. It appears
    that the Defendants are not amenable to even discussing a non
    trial disposition. I would like that to be reflected on the record
    . . . because the Defendants have indicated they want to go to
    trial.” J.A. 465 (emphasis added). Knight’s district-court
    counsel—who is not alleged to have been ineffective—was
    present at the hearing and made no objection to this
    representation. The fact that Knight was “not amenable to even
    discussing” a plea, even after having received effective
    assistance of counsel and having been indicted for all of his
    crimes, strongly suggests that he would not have accepted a
    Superior Court plea deal had he then been advised that
    significant further charges were possible.
    My colleagues focus on a draft plea agreement apparently
    offered by the government on June 6, 2013. Ante, at 16–17.
    But the defendants’ rejection of that offer only tends to confirm
    the prosecutor’s statement that they were “not amenable to
    even discussing” a plea. And despite my colleagues’
    suggestion to the contrary, that sweeping statement remains
    significant even though the June plea offer was less favorable
    to the defendants than the January one had been.
    11
    Second, Knight’s behavior in February 2013, while the
    Superior Court plea offer was pending, tracks what the
    prosecutor later said in June. The district court found that
    Knight “did not want any additional time to consider or discuss
    the plea [in Superior Court], but instead pushed [his attorney]
    to ‘move forward.’” 
    2019 WL 1117197
    , at *10. To be sure,
    Knight probably assumed that the offer on the table would
    entail ten years in prison. But plea bargains involve a “give-
    and-take negotiation.” Bordenkircher v. Hayes, 
    434 U.S. 357
    ,
    362 (1978) (quotation marks omitted). And if Knight had been
    open to a plea deal along the lines of what the government had
    actually proposed, with a recommended guideline sentence of
    up to six years, one might have expected him at least to
    consider the possibility of further negotiations—especially
    given his experience with two prior guilty pleas. Instead,
    Knight pressed his attorney to “move forward” as quickly as
    possible, to take his chances at trial.
    Third, Knight had a powerful incentive to avoid any
    conviction. When he kidnapped Peters in 2013, Knight was
    still serving a five-year term of supervised release following
    his 2001 guilty plea and ten-year sentence for distributing more
    than 50 grams of cocaine base. 
    2019 WL 1117197
    , at *4 n.5;
    see United States v. Knight, No. 01-cr-00016 (D.D.C. Sept. 14,
    2001). Knight admitted knowing that his supervised release
    would be revoked if he were convicted. And his attorney
    testified that Knight “was concerned about getting that
    additional time if he took the plea.” J.A. 340. As it turns out,
    Knight was sentenced to 21 months of imprisonment for
    violating the terms of his supervised release, running
    concurrently with the sentence imposed in this case, after the
    judge in the drug case accepted Knight’s request for leniency
    based on the length of the sentence imposed here. See United
    States v. Knight, No. 01-cr-00016 (D.D.C. July 1, 2014).
    12
    Fourth, Knight hoped that Peters—a key prosecution
    witness—would not testify against him. 
    2019 WL 1117197
    , at
    *11. Knight had good reason to be hopeful, for his threats
    already had induced Peters to lie to the police on the night of
    the arrest. And Peters agreed to testify against Knight only in
    exchange for his own favorable plea deal in a separate case—
    which was reached long after Knight had declined his Superior
    Court plea offer. In sum, Knight’s own threats against Peters
    supported his hope that Peters would not testify against him.
    Fifth, on May 15, 2013, Knight filed an ethics complaint
    against his Superior Court counsel with the D.C. bar. By then,
    Knight already had been indicted in federal court and appointed
    new counsel, whom Knight does not contend was ineffective.
    In the bar complaint, Knight raised a host of allegations against
    his former counsel—most prominently that counsel, in
    obtaining a three-week continuance for Knight to consider the
    plea offer, did not push the case forward quickly enough.
    Nowhere in that complaint did Knight raise the alternative,
    contradictory allegation that his counsel should have spent
    more time attempting to negotiate a better plea deal or advising
    Knight of the risks of an expanded indictment.
    My colleagues point to snippets of contrary evidence from
    Knight’s testimony at the ineffective-assistance hearing. For
    instance, Knight claims to have asked his attorney “how much
    time do they want” for the plea, and to have responded “okay”
    when his counsel asked to discuss the plea issue further. J.A.
    61; see ante, at 12–13. But the district court had ample reasons
    for taking Knight’s testimony “with a grain of salt.” 
    2019 WL 1117197
    , at *9. Among other things, Knight was a repeatedly
    convicted felon, and his offenses in this case included a scheme
    to escape responsibility by coercing the victims of his crimes
    “to lie to the police afterwards.” 
    Id.
     at *10 n.6. Moreover,
    Knight and his former counsel gave conflicting testimony on
    13
    whether Knight hoped that Peters would not testify against him,
    and the district court resolved that dispute by concluding that
    Knight had testified untruthfully. See 
    id.
    Finally, I am skeptical of my colleagues’ view that the plea
    offer here was unusually generous. In the abstract, there is little
    surprise that the initial offer—made three days after the crimes,
    before the government had conducted much of an
    investigation, before the primary victim had agreed to testify,
    and months before the trial—was substantially more favorable
    than the sentences imposed after a full trial and guilty verdict.
    As noted above, that is how pleas normally work. And this plea
    offer may have fairly reflected evidentiary uncertainty and
    Peters’s unwillingness to cooperate at the time, rather than an
    act of gratuitous generosity. But in any event, Lafler asks only
    whether the defendant would have accepted the plea offer, not
    whether an objectively reasonable person would have done so.
    See 566 U.S. at 164. Thus, our own assessment of the offer
    must yield to Knight’s subjective reasons for rejecting it.2
    2
    If the plea offer were unusually generous, that would highlight
    a further problem with my colleagues’ disposition of this appeal. To
    show prejudice under Lafler, the defendant must establish a
    reasonable probability that but for inadequate legal advice (1) the
    defendant would have accepted the plea offer, (2) the government
    would not have withdrawn it, (3) the court would have accepted the
    plea, and (4) the sentence under the plea would have been less severe
    than the sentence actually imposed. See 566 U.S. at 164. In this
    case, the district court found that Knight had failed to prove the first
    element of prejudice, so it did not address the others. An unusually
    generous plea offer would simply highlight the need to determine
    whether the Superior Court would have accepted it. On my
    colleagues’ own reasoning, then, we should remand for the district
    court to resolve that question.
    14
    The district court committed no clear error in finding that
    Knight was unlikely to have accepted the plea offer had he
    received adequate legal advice. Knight’s ineffective-assistance
    claim thus fails for lack of any prejudice.
    III
    On the question of remedy, my colleagues order the
    government to re-extend its original plea offer to Knight. They
    acknowledge that the district court retains discretion to
    consider whether to accept or reject this plea deal, while also
    noting that the discretion has limits. Ante, at 19–20.
    Lafler governs this remedial inquiry. The Supreme Court
    noted that, if ineffective assistance causes the defendant to
    reject a plea offer, “the proper exercise of discretion to remedy
    the constitutional injury may be to require the prosecution to
    reoffer the plea proposal.” 566 U.S. at 171. But “[o]nce this
    has occurred, the [trial] judge can then exercise discretion in
    deciding whether to vacate the conviction from trial and accept
    the plea or leave the conviction undisturbed.” Id. (emphasis
    added). The Court thus held that the “correct remedy” in Lafler
    itself was simply “to order the State to reoffer the plea
    agreement,” and it vacated a Sixth Circuit decision that had
    further “ordered specific performance of the original plea
    agreement.” Id. at 174. In so doing, the Supreme Court
    explained that the trial court on remand could “exercise its
    discretion in determining whether to vacate the convictions and
    resentence [the defendant] pursuant to the plea agreement, to
    vacate only some of the convictions and resentence [the
    defendant] accordingly, or to leave the convictions and
    sentence from trial undisturbed.” Id.
    In this case, several considerations favor rejecting the
    reoffered plea agreement. The original plea offer was made
    15
    only three days after Knight committed his crimes—before the
    government spent years building a case against him,
    prosecuting him, and defending against his appeal and post-
    conviction claims. Seven years after-the-fact, the plea offer
    would give Knight most of what the government originally
    offered to him, in the form of substantially lower sentencing
    exposure. But it would give the government none of what it
    demanded in return—avoiding the cost of prosecuting this case
    and the risk of an acquittal. Moreover, after Knight rejected
    the plea offer, the government offered Peters a favorable plea
    agreement to secure his testimony against Knight, thus
    narrowing it options for seeking a lawful punishment of Peters.
    And another court imposed a lenient sentence on Knight for his
    supervised-release violations because of his conviction and
    long sentence in this case. In short, intervening events have
    made it impossible to restore the parties to the respective
    positions that they would have held had Knight accepted the
    plea offer in 2013. And enforcing the plea agreement now
    would dramatically skew its benefits and burdens in favor of
    Knight and against the government.
    My colleagues fairly note the competing interest in
    affording some remedy for ineffective assistance in this
    context, and I have no quarrel with the proposition that this
    interest must be “balanced against” the government interests
    noted above. Ante, at 20. In my view, such balancing would
    occur if the district court on remand were to reject the plea
    agreement and then impose a sentence taking account of both
    the ineffective assistance found by my colleagues and the
    changed circumstances noted above. That approach would
    recognize the impossibility of restoring the parties to the
    “precise positions they occupied prior to the rejection of the
    plea offer.” Lafler, 566 U.S. at 171–72. And it would rest not
    on judicial disagreement with the government’s initial charging
    decision, cf. United States v. Fokker Servs. B.V., 
    818 F.3d 733
    ,
    16
    745 (D.C. Cir. 2016), but instead on a judgment that
    intervening events have made it impossible, seven years later,
    to give both parties the full benefit of their bargain.3
    3
    I agree with my colleagues that Thorpe received effective
    assistance of counsel and is entitled to no remedy.