Wynnewood Refining Company, LLC v. EPA ( 2023 )


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  •  United States Court of Appeals
    FOR THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA CIRCUIT
    Argued January 19, 2023                Decided July 18, 2023
    No. 22-1015
    WYNNEWOOD REFINING COMPANY, LLC AND COFFEYVILLE
    RESOURCES REFINING & MARKETING, LLC,
    PETITIONERS
    v.
    ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY,
    RESPONDENT
    Consolidated with 22-1051, 22-1053
    On Petitions for Review of a Final Action
    of the Environmental Protection Agency
    Michael R. Huston argued the cause for petitioners. On
    the briefs were Ian S. Shelton, Jonathan G. Hardin, Alexandra
    Magill Bromer, Eric B. Wolff, and Karl J. Worsham.
    Jeffrey Hughes, Attorney, U.S. Department of Justice,
    argued the cause for respondent. With him on the brief was
    Todd Kim, Assistant Attorney General.
    2
    Before: SRINIVASAN, Chief Judge, PILLARD, Circuit
    Judge, and RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge.
    Opinion for the Court filed by Circuit Judge PILLARD.
    Opinion concurring in the judgment filed by Senior
    Circuit Judge RANDOLPH.
    PILLARD, Circuit Judge: The Renewable Fuel Standard
    Program codified in the Clean Air Act requires all
    transportation fuel sold in the United States to contain an
    annually determined volume of renewable fuel. As part of its
    role in implementing the Program, the Environmental
    Protection Agency (EPA) issues renewable fuel standards
    announcing the annual quantity of renewables that must be sold
    into United States commerce. The standards apply to the
    businesses—refiners        and     importers—that    introduce
    transportation fuels into the United States economy. To ensure
    timely promulgation, Congress set annual deadlines in the Act
    for the agency’s publication of those standards.
    EPA has not always met those deadlines. We have already
    considered challenges to EPA’s belated issuance of renewable
    fuel standards on three other occasions. In each case we upheld
    EPA’s authority, provided that the agency reasonably
    mitigated delay-related harm to obligated parties. Extending
    obligated parties’ compliance deadlines has been a typical,
    approved form of mitigation.
    EPA failed to meet its deadlines to publish the 2020-2022
    renewable fuel standards. As part of its mitigation, EPA issued
    a rule extending the corresponding compliance reporting
    deadlines. The leeway provided in that Extension Rule ensures
    that obligated parties will not have to file compliance reports
    for 2020-2022 until after EPA has published the standards for
    3
    those years. To get the Program back on track, the Rule
    compresses the intervals between the 2020, 2021, and 2022
    compliance deadlines, leaving obligated parties less time
    between compliance filings than they have had in the past. The
    Rule also establishes a new compliance schedule for 2023 and
    later years. In these consolidated petitions, a group of fuel
    refineries (the Refineries) challenge the Extension Rule. They
    argue that the Rule violates the Clean Air Act, or is at least
    arbitrary and capricious, insofar as it provides obligated parties
    less than 13 months’ compliance lead time (i.e., time from
    EPA’s announcement of the relevant standard to the reporting
    deadline), and compliance intervals (i.e., time between
    reporting deadlines for successive compliance years) shorter
    than 12 months.
    We deny the petitions for review. When EPA fails to
    timely issue renewable fuel standards, the Clean Air Act does
    not bind the agency to provide obligated parties a minimum of
    13 months’ compliance lead time, nor does it require
    compliance intervals of at least 12 months. We likewise reject
    the Refineries’ claim that EPA acted arbitrarily and
    capriciously in setting the compliance schedule in the Rule.
    Rather, the agency reasonably exercised its authority to
    establish the compliance timeframe for the Renewable Fuel
    Standard Program under the circumstances.
    I.
    A.
    Congress established the Renewable Fuel Standard
    Program (RFS Program or Program) in 2005 as part of a suite
    of changes to the Clean Air Act (CAA or Act). Energy Policy
    Act of 2005, 
    Pub. L. No. 109-58, 119
     Stat. 594; Energy
    Independence and Security Act of 2007, 
    Pub. L. No. 110-140, §§ 201-202
    , 
    121 Stat. 1492
    , 1519-28 (codified at 42 U.S.C.
    4
    § 7545(o)) (amending the RFS Program provisions). The
    Program sets requirements for the volume of renewable fuel
    that our domestic transportation fuel supply must contain each
    year. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(A), (B). In enacting the
    Program, Congress sought “[t]o move the United States toward
    greater energy independence and security” and “increase the
    production of clean renewable fuels” by imposing a volume
    requirement to stimulate demand for the renewables. Energy
    Independence and Security Act, preamble, 121 Stat. at 1492.
    The Act vests EPA with primary responsibility for
    implementing the Program. It charges EPA with issuing
    regulations “to ensure that transportation fuel sold or
    introduced into commerce in the United States,” excluding the
    noncontiguous states and territories, contains at least a
    specified volume of renewable fuel for each year. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(A)(i). The Act prescribes annual volumes for
    four categories of fuel: total renewable fuel, advanced biofuel,
    cellulosic biofuel, and biomass-based diesel.                
    Id.
    § 7545(o)(2)(A)(i). For the years 2005 through 2022,
    Congress set forth the “applicable volume” (i.e., the minimum
    volume) of total renewable fuel, advanced biofuel, and
    cellulosic biofuel; for the years after 2022, the Act requires
    EPA to set those volumes by rule. See id. § 7545(o)(2)(B)(i),
    (B)(ii). As for biomass-based diesel, Congress prescribed the
    applicable volumes for 2005 through 2012 and instructed EPA
    to set the annual applicable volume by rule for 2013 and
    beyond. See id.
    To ensure the Program’s renewable fuel volume
    requirements are met, EPA translates the applicable volumes
    for each category of fuel for a given year into standards that
    regulated parties must meet. Id. § 7545(o)(3)(B). EPA
    calculates those standards by dividing the applicable volume
    for each renewable fuel type by an estimate of the national
    5
    volume of gasoline and diesel that the U.S. market will
    consume that year, subject to certain adjustments. See id.
    § 7545(o)(3)(A), (B)(i); 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1405
    (c). The resulting
    percentages inform obligated parties how much of their fuel
    production must consist of renewable fuels. See Monroe
    Energy, LLC v. EPA, 
    750 F.3d 909
    , 912 (D.C. Cir. 2014)
    (citing 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1405
    (c)). To use a simple example, if
    the applicable volume for a year is 15 billion gallons, and EPA
    estimates that the national volume of transportation fuel
    consumption for the year is 100 billion gallons, the applicable
    percentage will be 15 percent. 
    Id.
     In that year, obligated
    parties must ensure that, for every gallon of nonrenewable fuel
    they produce or import, they introduce an additional 15 percent
    of that amount (0.15 gallons) of renewable fuel into the United
    States’ fuel supply. See 
    id.
    The Act establishes an annual deadline by which EPA
    must publish the percentage standards for the upcoming year
    through 2022. For the renewable fuel categories relevant here,
    EPA must publish them by November 30 of the preceding
    calendar year—i.e., one month before the year in which the
    standards will apply. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(3)(B)(i). After
    2022, the Act prescribes no deadline for when EPA must
    publish the percentage standards. 
    Id.
     § 7545(o)(2)(B)(i), (ii).
    Instead, for 2023 and later years, the statute sets an annual
    deadline for EPA to publish the applicable volumes of
    renewable fuel (as distinct from the percentage standards). Id.
    § 7545(o)(2)(B)(ii). For those years, the Act directs EPA to
    publish the applicable volumes “no later than 14 months before
    the first year for which such applicable volume will apply.” Id.
    The Act does not set compliance deadlines. Instead, the
    CAA empowers EPA to promulgate regulations that “contain
    compliance provisions” to “ensure” the annual renewable fuel
    volumes are met. Id. § 7545(o)(2)(A)(iii). Existing EPA rules
    6
    require obligated parties to submit compliance reports on an
    annual basis demonstrating that they have met a given year’s
    standards. 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1451
    (f)(1).
    Two components of the compliance framework
    established by EPA bear particular relevance here. First, what
    we call “compliance lead time” is the period between EPA’s
    announcement of a renewable fuel standard and the relevant
    compliance reporting deadline. So, if EPA were to announce
    the 2020 renewable fuel standards on November 30, 2019, and
    require obligated parties to submit their compliance reports for
    that year on January 1, 2021, that schedule would provide
    obligated parties with roughly 13 months’ compliance lead
    time. Second, what we refer to as “compliance intervals” are
    the periods between the reporting deadlines for consecutive
    compliance years. For instance, if EPA were to set the
    reporting deadlines for the 2020-2022 compliance years as
    January 1 of 2021, 2022, and 2023, respectively, that
    compliance schedule would provide obligated parties with 12-
    month compliance intervals. The lead times and compliance
    intervals set by EPA directly affect obligated parties’
    compliance burdens: The former governs how much notice
    obligated parties receive in preparing to meet their renewable
    fuel obligations for a given year, and the latter determines how
    long obligated parties have between reporting deadlines to take
    the steps necessary to satisfy their obligations across
    successive compliance years.
    As for how obligated parties demonstrate compliance, the
    Act establishes a market-based program through which parties
    can purchase and trade credits. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(5). The
    credits in this system are known as “Renewable Identification
    Numbers” or “RINs.” See 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1425
    . RINs are
    unique numbers that represent a given volume of renewable
    fuel. 
    Id.
     § 80.1401; see Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 913
    . In
    7
    effect, RINs serve as the currency of the RFS Program. Parties
    acquire RINs and then demonstrate compliance with their
    renewable fuel obligations for the year by “retir[ing]” (i.e.,
    submitting) them to EPA by the compliance filing deadline. 
    Id.
    § 80.1427(a).
    The statute and regulations describe how RINs become
    available. A party that produces or imports renewable fuel for
    use in the United States thereby generates a quantity of RINs
    corresponding to the volume of ethanol-equivalent fuel gallons
    (a standardized measure across different fuel types) that it has
    introduced into the U.S. economy. See Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 913
    ; 
    40 C.F.R. §§ 80.1415
    (a), 80.1425, 80.1426. When
    an entity blends renewable fuel into conventional
    transportation fuel (e.g., gasoline or diesel), the RINs from the
    blended renewable batch are deemed “separated,” meaning
    they may be traded in the market or used to demonstrate
    compliance. See Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at
    913 (citing 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1426
    (e), 80.1429(b)). Parties may thus acquire
    “separated” (i.e., usable) RINs either by blending renewable
    fuel into conventional transportation fuel themselves or buying
    separated RINs from another entity that did so. See 
    id.
     The
    Act provides that RINs are “valid to show compliance for the
    12 months as of the date of generation.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(5)(C).
    To provide compliance flexibility, the Act permits
    obligated parties “unable to generate or purchase sufficient
    credits to meet the [renewable fuel] requirements” for the given
    year to carry forward a “renewable fuel deficit” into the next
    compliance year. 
    Id.
     § 7545(o)(5)(D). Any party carrying
    forward a deficit under this provision must accumulate
    sufficient credits the next year to pay off that deficit. Id. We
    refer to this provision as the deficit carry-forward provision.
    8
    Finally, as relevant here, the Act permits small refineries,
    which are defined in terms of their average daily crude oil
    throughput, id. § 7545(o)(1)(K), to petition for exemptions
    from Program requirements based on “disproportionate
    economic hardship,” id. § 7545(o)(9). EPA must grant or deny
    such petitions “not later than 90 days after the date of receipt.”
    Id. § 7545(o)(9)(B)(iii).
    B.
    This case centers on EPA’s authority to alter obligated
    parties’ compliance deadlines when the agency has fallen
    behind in administering the RFS Program and seeks to catch
    up.
    A series of EPA delays precipitated the challenge before
    us. While these delays are not the subject of the Refineries’
    petitions here, we briefly recount them as context helpful to
    understanding the challenged Extension Rule. First, for the
    2020-2022 compliance years, EPA failed to timely issue the
    Program’s renewable fuel standards. The statutory deadlines
    for EPA to issue those standards fell on November 30 of 2019,
    2020, and 2021, respectively. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(3)(B)(i).
    EPA initially issued the 2020 standard approximately two
    months late, on February 6, 2020. See Renewable Fuel
    Standard Program: Standards for 2020 and Biomass-Based
    Diesel Volume for 2021 and Other Changes, 
    85 Fed. Reg. 7016
    , 7069 (Feb. 6, 2020). EPA then issued a revised, more
    lenient version of the 2020 standard on July 1, 2022—i.e., 31
    months after its statutory due date. See Renewable Fuel
    Standard (RFS) Program: RFS Annual Rules, 
    87 Fed. Reg. 39,600
     (July 1, 2022) (July 2022 Rule). EPA issued the 2021
    and 2022 standards in that same July 2022 Rule, see 
    id. at 39
    ,601—so those announcements were late by 19 and 8
    months, respectively, see 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(3)(B)(i).
    9
    Notably, those were not the first times EPA had missed its
    statutory deadlines to publish renewable fuel standards for a
    given year. See Ams. for Clean Energy v. EPA (ACE), 
    864 F.3d 691
    , 718-21 (D.C. Cir. 2017); Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 919-20
    ; Nat’l Petrochemical & Refiners Ass’n v. EPA, 
    630 F.3d 145
    , 154-58 (D.C. Cir. 2010). Given EPA’s track record,
    we have wondered in past cases whether some of the standard-
    setting deadlines Congress prescribed may be “unrealistic” in
    view of EPA resources and the nature of the task. Nat’l
    Petrochemical, 630 F.3d at 156.
    The Refineries also emphasize that EPA did not timely
    resolve many small refinery petitions for exemption from RFS
    Program requirements for the 2016-2021 compliance years.
    See Notice of June 2022 Denial of Petitions for Small Refinery
    Exemptions Under the Renewable Fuel Standard Program, 
    87 Fed. Reg. 34,873
    , 34,873-74 (June 8, 2022) (Notice of June
    2022 SRE Denial); April 2022 Denial of Petitions for Small
    Refinery Exemptions Under the Renewable Fuel Standard
    Program, 
    87 Fed. Reg. 24,300
    , 24,300 (Apr. 25, 2022). As of
    early 2022, those petitions remained pending while EPA
    reevaluated its overall policies for adjudicating small refinery
    exemption petitions. See Notice of Opportunity to Comment
    on Proposed Denial of Petitions for Small Refinery
    Exemptions, 
    86 Fed. Reg. 70,999
    , 71,000 (Dec. 14, 2021)
    (December 2021 Notice).
    That brings us to the challenged rule: As part of its efforts
    to mitigate the harm caused by its delayed standard-setting and
    the continued uncertainty surrounding its small refinery
    exemption policies, EPA issued the Extension Rule in
    February 2022. See Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) Program:
    Extension of Compliance and Attest Engagement Reporting
    Deadlines, 
    87 Fed. Reg. 5,696
     (Feb. 2, 2022) (Extension Rule
    10
    or Rule). The Rule makes two principal sets of changes to the
    Program’s compliance schedule.
    First, the Rule extends obligated parties’ 2019-2022
    compliance deadlines. It extends the 2019 compliance
    reporting deadline for small refineries from November 30,
    2021, to the next quarterly reporting deadline after the effective
    date of the 2021 renewable fuel standards—i.e., September 1,
    2022. See 
    id. at 5,698-99
    ; Extension of 2019 and 2020
    Renewable Fuel Standard Compliance and Attest Engagement
    Reporting Deadlines, 
    86 Fed. Reg. 17,073
    , 17,073 (Apr. 1,
    2021); July 2022 Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 39,600. The Rule also
    pushes back the 2020 and 2021 compliance deadlines for all
    obligated parties to the next quarterly reporting deadline after
    the prior compliance year’s reporting deadline. See Extension
    Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,699. And for 2022, the Rule sets the
    compliance deadline as the later of the next quarterly reporting
    deadline after (1) the effective date of the 2023 renewable fuel
    standards or (2) the compliance deadline for 2021. See id.
    To put things more simply, those changes ensure obligated
    parties will not have to submit their 2020-2022 compliance
    reports before knowing their renewable fuel obligations for
    those years. The Rule also ensures small refineries will not
    have to submit their 2019 compliance reports before the agency
    resolves the pending small refinery exemption petitions—i.e.,
    before those small refineries know whether they are exempt
    from compliance reporting requirements.
    Second, the Extension Rule establishes a new compliance
    schedule for 2023 and ensuing years. It sets the compliance
    deadline for each year starting in 2023 as the latest of (a) March
    31 of the following calendar year; (b) the next quarterly
    reporting deadline after the effective date of the next
    compliance year’s standards; or (c) the next quarterly reporting
    11
    deadline after the compliance deadline for the prior compliance
    year. See id. at 5,700. In practical terms, this provision
    automatically extends obligated parties’ compliance reporting
    deadlines in the event EPA fails to timely issue the renewable
    fuel standards for a given year in the future.
    Beyond the Extension Rule, EPA undertook several
    additional steps to mitigate the effects on regulated parties of
    its delays during the 2019 to 2022 compliance cycles. In the
    rule setting the 2020-2022 standards, EPA adjusted the 2020
    renewable fuel volume downward to reflect the “volumes of
    renewable fuel actually used in” that year. July 2022 Rule, 87
    Fed. Reg. at 39,618. EPA anticipated that this downward
    adjustment would decrease the risk of scarcity of RINs for
    obligated parties to use for compliance, which would in turn
    reduce the risk of “disrupt[ions] [to] the functionality of the
    RIN market.” Id. EPA likewise eased the 2021 requirements,
    setting the “2021 volumes at the volumes of renewable fuel
    actually used in 2021.”        Id.    Separately, the agency
    promulgated a rule that allows small refineries to opt into an
    alternative schedule giving them more time to satisfy their
    2020 renewable fuel obligations. Renewable Fuel Standard
    (RFS) Program: Alternative RIN Retirement Schedule for
    Small Refineries, 
    87 Fed. Reg. 54,158
    , 54,161 (Sept. 2, 2022)
    (Alternative Retirement Schedule). EPA offered that option to
    small refineries to “facilitate their transition into full
    compliance with the RFS program” following EPA’s denial of
    their exemption petitions. 
    Id. at 54,161
    .
    C.
    Several fuel refineries petitioned for review of the
    Extension Rule. We consolidated their petitions. Order, No.
    22-1015, Dkt. No. 1941984 (Apr. 5, 2022). With the exception
    12
    of one refinery, Coffeyville Resources Refining & Marketing,
    LLC, all petitioners are small refineries under the CAA.
    Shortly after filing their petitions, the Refineries moved
    for a stay of the Rule pending review, which EPA opposed. We
    held that the petitioners had not shown a likelihood of success
    on their claims, so denied the motion.
    II.
    We begin by confirming the Refineries’ standing to seek
    review of the Extension Rule. In support of Article III
    standing, the Refineries noted that, “[a]s obligated parties,”
    they are “subject to annual RFS compliance deadlines, 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1406
    , and thus are directly regulated by the
    Extension Rule.” Pets. Br. 18. Although EPA does not
    question it, we have an independent obligation to satisfy
    ourselves of our own jurisdiction. See Steel Co. v. Citizens for
    a Better Env’t, 
    523 U.S. 83
    , 94-95 (1998).
    To meet the requirements of Article III standing in a case
    challenging agency action, a petitioner must show,
    supplementing the administrative record as needed, (1) that it
    suffered an injury that is concrete, particularized, and actual or
    imminent; (2) that the injury is fairly traceable to the
    challenged agency action; and (3) that judicial relief would
    likely redress the injury. See Lujan v. Defs. of Wildlife, 
    504 U.S. 555
    , 560-61 (1992); Ams. for Safe Access v. Drug Enf’t
    Admin., 
    706 F.3d 438
    , 442 (D.C. Cir. 2013). In evaluating a
    petitioner’s standing, we must assume it will prevail on the
    merits of its claims. Ams. for Safe Access, 
    706 F.3d at 443
    ;
    accord NB ex rel. Peacock v. District of Columbia, 
    682 F.3d 77
    , 82 (D.C. Cir. 2012).
    “[T]here is ordinarily little question” that a regulated entity
    has standing to challenge a rule under which it is regulated.
    13
    Lujan, 
    504 U.S. at 560-61
    ; accord State Nat. Bank of Big
    Spring v. Lew, 
    795 F.3d 48
    , 53 (D.C. Cir. 2015); Corbett v.
    Transp. Sec. Admin., 
    19 F.4th 478
    , 483 (D.C. Cir. 2021). And,
    where a petitioner’s standing is “self-evident[,] no evidence
    outside the administrative record is necessary for the court to
    be sure of it.” Sierra Club v. EPA, 
    292 F.3d 895
    , 899 (D.C.
    Cir. 2013); cf. Concerned Household Elec. Consumers Council
    v. EPA, No. 22-1139, 
    2023 WL 3643436
    , at *2 (D.C. Cir. May
    25, 2023) (unpublished judgment) (faulting petitioners, who
    were not “directly regulated by the challenged rule,” for failing
    to submit evidence to establish their standing) (quoting Am.
    Fuel & Petrochemical Mfrs. v. EPA, 
    3 F.4th 373
    , 379 (D.C.
    Cir. 2021)).
    Applying those principles, we conclude the Refineries
    have standing to challenge the Extension Rule. The Refineries
    have suffered an injury-in-fact caused by EPA’s challenged
    actions. Assuming for purposes of the standing inquiry that the
    Refineries will prevail on their claim, the Extension Rule
    financially burdens the Refineries by requiring them to
    purchase RINs to satisfy their 2020-2022 renewable fuel
    obligations within a compressed timeframe. We need not
    credit any assertions that EPA’s rulemaking caused an increase
    in RIN prices to recognize the burden of the shorter compliance
    interval: Instead of having three years to purchase RINs to
    meet those obligations—as the Refineries claim the CAA
    requires—the Extension Rule leaves Refineries potentially as
    little as nine months to do so. See 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,699. The
    cost of acquiring RINs for one compliance year often reaches
    into the tens of millions of dollars for small refineries, and it is
    readily apparent that expecting them to acquire enough RINs
    within a substantially shorter timeframe imposes a financial
    burden on them. One petitioner commented in opposition to
    the Extension Rule that abiding by the Rule’s compliance
    schedule “would be an extreme financial shock to the system
    14
    of any obligated party, much less [small refineries].” See RFS
    Extension of Compliance and Attest Engagement Reporting
    Deadlines: Response to Comments, EPA-420-R-22-001, at 15
    (Jan. 2022) (RTC) (Comment of Coffeyville) (J.A. 17); accord
    id. at 12 (Comment of Small Refiners Coalition) (J.A. 14).
    That financial burden is a cognizable injury-in-fact fairly
    traceable to the Extension Rule. See Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 915
    .
    Finally, an order from this court would likely redress the
    Refineries’ asserted injury. If we were to hold that the statute
    guarantees obligated parties a minimum of 12 months between
    compliance deadlines and 13 months’ compliance lead time, as
    the Refineries contend, EPA could not impose the compressed
    compliance schedule set forth in the Extension Rule. Nor could
    EPA simply revert to the preexisting 2020-2022 compliance
    deadlines: Those deadlines also gave less than 13 months’
    compliance lead time. See 79 Fed. Reg. at 23,670. Rather, if
    the Refineries were to prevail, EPA would be required to either
    provide obligated parties more time to submit their 2020-2022
    compliance reports or offer obligated parties relief from their
    renewable fuel obligations for those years by, for instance,
    waiving their renewable fuel requirements. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(7). Thus, assuming for purposes of the standing
    inquiry that the Refineries will succeed on the merits of their
    claims, their claimed injury is redressable. We therefore
    proceed to the merits.
    III.
    We review the Extension Rule pursuant to section
    307(b)(1) of the Clean Air Act. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7607
    (b)(1). Under
    that section, we may reverse an agency action if it is arbitrary,
    capricious, an abuse of discretion, or not in accordance with
    law. 
    Id.
     § 7607(d)(9)(A).
    15
    The Refineries challenge two aspects of the Extension
    Rule: the 2019-2022 compliance deadlines and the compliance
    schedule for 2023 and ensuing years. They argue both sets of
    provisions are contrary to law or, in the alternative, arbitrary
    and capricious. We address each set of provisions in turn.
    A.
    We begin with the Refineries’ challenge to the Extension
    Rule’s 2020-2022 compliance deadlines. The Refineries
    contend that, in light of EPA’s late standard setting, the
    Extension Rule violates the CAA by giving obligated parties
    insufficient time to meet their compliance obligations. In
    particular, they argue that the Act requires EPA to afford
    obligated parties a minimum of 13 months’ compliance lead
    time and a 12-month compliance interval, regardless of
    whether EPA timely issues the renewable fuel standards for the
    compliance years in question. They also contend that the
    agency acted arbitrarily and capriciously in setting the 2020-
    2022 compliance schedule.
    Neither argument carries the day. We hold that, when
    EPA issues untimely renewable fuel standards, the CAA does
    not entitle obligated parties to 13 months’ compliance lead
    time, nor does it require a minimum 12-month compliance
    interval. The agency, moreover, did not act arbitrarily and
    capriciously in establishing the 2020-2022 compliance
    schedule. Rather, the lead times and intervals are reasonable
    and reasonably explained.
    1.
    The Refineries’ argument that the CAA binds EPA to an
    inflexible compliance schedule contravenes the statutory text
    and our precedent. The CAA calls on EPA to design a
    compliance regime for the RFS Program. It charges EPA with
    16
    “promulgat[ing] regulations to ensure that gasoline sold or
    introduced into commerce in the United States” contains at
    least the annual applicable volumes of renewable fuel required
    by the Act. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(A)(i). Further, the Act
    calls for regulations that “contain compliance provisions
    applicable to refineries, blenders, distributors, and importers,
    as appropriate, to ensure that the requirements [of the Program]
    are met.” 
    Id.
     § 7545(o)(2)(A)(iii)(I). Importantly, the Act
    itself contains no compliance deadlines or intervals for
    obligated parties. See id. § 7545(o). Thus, rather than task
    EPA with overseeing a fixed compliance schedule, the Act
    gives EPA flexibility to craft and adjust a compliance regime
    in service of the Act’s core mandate: to ensure the Act’s annual
    renewable fuel volumes are met. See id. § 7545(o)(2)(A)(i).
    Our precedent establishes that, when EPA misses its
    statutory deadline to issue the renewable fuel standards for a
    given year, the agency may—and in fact should—adjust
    compliance deadlines. We have thrice held that EPA is
    authorized to issue annual RFS standards after the statutory
    deadline, so long as it takes reasonable steps to mitigate any
    harm to obligated parties from the delay. ACE, 
    864 F.3d at 718-21
    ; Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 919-20
    ; Nat’l
    Petrochemical, 630 F.3d at 154-58. As relevant here, on two
    of those occasions we characterized EPA’s extension of the
    Program’s compliance reporting deadlines and compression of
    compliance intervals as vital to mitigating the harm to
    obligated parties caused by EPA’s delay.
    In ACE, for instance, we rejected a challenge to EPA’s late
    issuance of the RFS Program’s 2014-2017 annual volumes for
    biomass-based diesel. 
    864 F.3d at 719-21
    . We concluded EPA
    had “adequately considered various ways to minimize the
    hardship caused to obligated parties by virtue of EPA’s delay,”
    based in part on EPA’s “very extensive extensions of the
    17
    normal compliance demonstration deadlines” for the 2014 and
    2015 compliance years. See 
    id. at 721, 722
     (internal quotation
    marks omitted). Those extensions, like the ones at issue here,
    provided less than 13 months’ compliance lead time and a
    compliance interval of less than 12 months. See Renewable
    Fuel Standard Program: Standards for 2014, 2015, and 2016
    and Biomass-Based Diesel Volume for 2017, 
    80 Fed. Reg. 77,420
    , 77,491 (Dec. 14, 2015).
    Similarly, in Monroe Energy, we affirmed EPA’s
    authority to issue the 2013 renewable fuel standards after the
    statutory deadline, based in part on EPA’s decision to “extend
    the compliance deadline by four months.” 
    750 F.3d at 920
    ; see
    
    id. at 920-21
    . EPA had determined “that the best way to
    balance obligated parties’ interest in regulatory certainty with
    EPA’s statutory obligation to ensure the renewable fuel
    volumes are annually met was to extend the compliance
    demonstration deadline by four months,” while also shortening
    the parties’ compliance interval. 
    Id. at 920
    . Even with the
    extension, obligated parties received less than 13 months’
    compliance lead time. See Regulation of Fuels and Fuel
    Additives: 2013 Renewable Fuel Standards, 
    78 Fed. Reg. 49,794
    , 49,800, 49,823 (Aug. 15, 2013). We concluded that
    “EPA’s decision to preserve the 2013 fuel standards while
    extending the compliance deadline to June 30, 2014[,] was
    reasonable.” Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 921
    .
    Our decisions in ACE and Monroe Energy thus
    contemplate that, when EPA misses its statutory deadlines, the
    agency may adjust obligated parties’ compliance deadlines in
    order to mitigate the effects of its lateness.
    EPA’s extension of the 2020-2022 compliance deadlines
    in the Extension Rule heeds the guidance in those decisions.
    As noted, by the time EPA issued the Extension Rule it had
    18
    missed its statutory deadlines to publish the 2021 and 2022
    renewable fuel standards. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(3)(B)(i);
    Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg at 5,697. The Extension Rule
    stated that EPA planned to issue a revised version of the 2020
    standard, meaning publication of the final version of that
    standard would be late as well. See Extension Rule, 87 Fed.
    Reg at 5,697. Per our precedent, when publishing standards
    after the statutory deadline, EPA must “reasonably mitigate[]
    any burdens that its lateness [had] impose[d] on obligated
    parties.” ACE, 
    864 F.3d at 717
    ; see also 
    id. at 718-21
    . In the
    Extension Rule, EPA sought to do just that: It endeavored to
    mitigate the harm caused by its “continued delay” in
    promulgating the final 2020-2022 standards by extending the
    compliance reporting deadlines for those years. Extension
    Rule, 87 Fed. Reg at 5,697.
    And, rather than create a permanent lag in compliance
    deadlines as a result of those extensions, EPA established a
    timeline going forward that would enable the agency to get the
    Program’s compliance cycle back on track. See Extension
    Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,698-99. To do so, EPA provided less
    than 13 months’ compliance lead time and less than a full year
    compliance interval, see Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,698-
    99—as it had done in the rules we considered in ACE, see 
    864 F.3d at 719-22
    ; 80 Fed. Reg. at 77,491, and Monroe Energy,
    see 
    750 F.3d at 920-21
    ; 78 Fed. Reg. at 49,800, 49,823.
    Notwithstanding our prior rulings, the Refineries argue
    that the Extension Rule’s “compressed” compliance timeline
    violates the CAA. Pets. Br. 19; see id. at 24-25. According to
    the Refineries, the Act “guarantees obligated parties at least a
    year between annual compliance deadlines and more than a
    year between the date EPA sets the volumes and the date
    obligated parties must comply with them.” Id. at 17. The
    Refineries acknowledge that, if EPA misses its statutory
    19
    deadline, their theory prevents the agency from getting the
    Program back on track without excusing or reducing the
    parties’ renewable fuel obligations for that year. See Reply Br.
    6. In other words, the Refineries read the CAA to require EPA,
    when it fails to timely publish a renewable fuel standard, to
    either remain persistently behind schedule from year to year,
    or to catch up by abandoning its statutory duty “to ensure” the
    Program’s annual renewable fuel volumes are met for the
    affected year. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(A)(i). We do not read
    the Act to prioritize the timeframes the Refineries see as
    implicit in the statute over EPA’s express statutory obligation
    to implement the requisite use of renewable fuels.
    To make their case that the Extension Rule abbreviates
    timeframes the Act implicitly prescribes, the Refineries first
    contend that EPA’s annual statutory deadline to issue
    renewable fuel standards by November 30 before the start of
    the applicable compliance year means that they are entitled to
    13 months’ compliance lead time.               See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(3)(B)(i). The Refineries claim that, “[b]ecause the
    earliest possible deadline for compliance for any particular
    calendar year is the following January 1, obligated parties are
    entitled [to] at least 13 months’ lead time between publication
    of the final annual volume obligation and the deadline for
    reporting compliance with that obligation.” Pets. Br. 22.
    That argument fails to persuade. We note, at the outset,
    that the Act contains no express requirement that EPA refrain
    from requiring any compliance reporting until the entire
    compliance year has elapsed. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o). Even
    assuming arguendo the Refineries are correct that the statute
    anticipates 13 months’ lead time in the normal course, it does
    not follow that the Act binds EPA to that timeframe in the event
    EPA misses its statutory deadline. As discussed, such a
    reading of the Act would effectively preclude EPA from
    20
    fulfilling its primary mandate whenever it is late in setting a
    renewable fuel standard. In the Refineries’ view, falling
    behind in setting the RFS for a given year would automatically
    curtail EPA’s compliance authority: It could either protect the
    Refineries’ compliance lead time by remaining equally far
    behind in subsequent years, or get the Program back on track
    by relieving parties’ renewable fuel obligations for the
    compliance year at issue. Absent an express 13-month
    minimum requirement in the Act’s text, we are not persuaded
    Congress intended EPA to abdicate its core statutory duty in
    service of that inflexible compliance lead time. To the
    contrary, Congress explicitly directed EPA to craft a
    compliance regime “as appropriate, to ensure that the
    requirements [of the Program] are met”—thereby mandating
    that any compliance framework work in service of the Act’s
    renewable fuel goals, not against them.                     
    Id.
    § 7545(o)(2)(A)(iii)(I).   In enacting the RFS Program,
    “Congress’ focus [was] on ensuring the annual volume
    requirement [is] met regardless of EPA delay.” Monroe
    Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 920
     (quoting Nat’l Petrochemical, 630
    F.3d at 163).
    The Refineries next point to the Act’s use of the term
    “calendar year” in setting the renewable fuel volume
    requirements as evidence that the statute mandates 12-month
    intervals between compliance deadlines. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(B); see Pets. Br. 20; Reply Br. 3. But Congress’s
    specification that the Act’s volume requirements be set on an
    annual basis does not mean that obligated parties’ compliance
    reports must be submitted at 12-month intervals. Rather, the
    Act grants EPA the authority to establish reporting deadlines
    and compliance intervals “as appropriate, to ensure” the Act’s
    requirements are met. 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(A)(iii)(I).
    21
    The Refineries also contend the Act’s deficit carry-
    forward provision supports their view that 12-month
    compliance intervals are “mandatory.” Pets. Br. 20; see 
    id. at 20-21
    . That provision permits any entity that lacks sufficient
    credits to meet its renewable fuel obligations for a given year
    “to carry forward a renewable fuel deficit,” provided that, in
    the next year, the entity “(i) achieves compliance with [its]
    renewable fuel [obligations]; and (ii) generates or purchases
    additional renewable fuel credits to offset the renewable fuel
    deficit of the previous year.” 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(5)(D). The
    Refineries claim that the Extension Rule’s compliance timeline
    renders the Act’s deficit carry-forward provision “useless,”
    because parties will only have three or five months rather than
    the full ensuing year to satisfy their deficit from a prior year.
    Pets. Br. 21.
    That argument ignores the function that the carry-forward
    provision continues to serve under the Extension Rule.
    Obligated parties may carry forward a deficit into the following
    compliance year to satisfy their obligations even when the
    compliance interval is less than 12 months. For instance, under
    the Extension Rule, eligible obligated parties may carry
    forward a renewable fuel deficit from the 2020 compliance
    year into the 2021 compliance year—and thus avail themselves
    of the compliance flexibility envisioned by the Act—even
    when the compliance reporting dates for those years are set at
    quarterly rather than annual intervals. See Extension Rule, 87
    Fed. Reg. at 5,698-99; 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1428
    (c); RTC 19 (EPA
    Response) (J.A. 21). The deficit carry-forward provision thus
    plays a useful role even when compliance intervals are
    compressed.
    Accordingly, we hold that, when EPA issues renewable
    fuel standards after the applicable statutory deadline for a given
    year, the agency is not statutorily bound to provide a minimum
    22
    of 13 months’ compliance lead time or 12 months between
    compliance reporting deadlines. Rather, it may reasonably
    adjust the RFS Program’s compliance schedule as appropriate
    to mitigate the harm caused by EPA’s delay and to ensure the
    requirements of the Program are met. We thus reject the
    Refineries’ claim that the Extension Rule’s 2020-2022
    compliance schedule violates the CAA.
    2.
    Next, we turn to the Refineries’ argument that the
    Extension Rule’s 2020-2022 compliance deadlines are
    arbitrary and capricious. Under the deferential arbitrary and
    capricious standard, we evaluate whether the challenged
    agency       action   is    “reasonable     and      reasonably
    explained.” POET Biorefining, LLC v. EPA, 
    970 F.3d 392
    , 409
    (D.C. Cir. 2020) (quoting Cmtys. for a Better Env’t v. EPA, 
    748 F.3d 333
    , 335 (D.C. Cir. 2014)). Our role is not to substitute
    our policy judgments for those of the agency. 
    Id. at 414
    .
    Rather, we “must exercise our ‘narrowly defined duty of
    holding agencies to certain minimal standards of
    rationality.’” Hearth, Patio & Barbecue Ass’n v. EPA, 
    11 F.4th 791
    , 805 (D.C. Cir. 2021) (quoting Murray Energy Corp.
    v. EPA, 
    936 F.3d 597
    , 608 (D.C. Cir. 2019)).
    The Refineries contend that the Extension Rule is arbitrary
    and capricious because it fails to “reasonably mitigate” the
    harm caused by EPA’s delays in taking other actions. Pets. Br.
    2, 20, 25-29. They argue that the agency’s delays in issuing
    the 2020-2022 standards and belated denial of a group of small
    refinery exemption petitions have subjected refineries,
    especially small ones, to a host of hardships. They assert that
    RIN market instability and elevated RIN prices add to the costs
    of compliance. According to the Refineries, “the only
    reasonable mitigation” under the circumstances is to give
    23
    obligated parties some form of reprieve from their renewable
    fuel obligations. 
    Id. at 28
    . They suggest EPA could offer
    parties an alternative compliance demonstration approach that
    would reduce their obligations, exercise its waiver authority to
    eliminate their obligations entirely, or provide small refineries
    credits to compensate for changes in RIN prices. By failing to
    undertake these measures in the Extension Rule, the Refineries
    argue, EPA acted arbitrarily and capriciously.
    The Refineries’ reasonable-mitigation argument is
    misdirected. It is true that, in evaluating challenges to late-
    issued renewable fuel standards, we have looked to whether
    EPA reasonably mitigated any hardship to obligated parties
    caused by its delay in issuing those standards. See ACE, 
    864 F.3d at 718-19
    ; see Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 920
    ; Nat’l
    Petrochemical, 630 F.3d at 166. But other agency actions that
    could bear on refineries’ obligations are not before us here.
    EPA’s delayed issuance of the 2020-2022 standards is subject
    to a separate pending challenge, Sinclair Wyoming Refining
    Co. v. EPA, No. 22-1210 (D.C. Cir.), as is EPA’s denial of
    several small refinery exemption petitions, Sinclair Wyoming
    Refining Co. v. EPA, No. 22-1073 (D.C. Cir.); Hunt Refining
    Co. v. EPA, No. 22-11617 (11th Cir.); Calumet Shreveport
    Refining LLC v. EPA, No. 22-60266 (5th Cir.). Any questions
    whether EPA has reasonably mitigated the asserted hardships
    caused by those delays are not before us in this case. Needless
    to say, we take no position on the merits of those petitions. The
    agency action on review here is limited to EPA’s decision to
    alter obligated parties’ compliance deadlines in the Extension
    Rule.
    To the extent the Refineries argue that the specific
    compliance lead times and compliance intervals set forth in the
    Extension Rule are arbitrary and capricious, we reject that
    argument. The 2020-2022 compliance schedule established by
    24
    the Extension Rule is both reasonable and reasonably justified
    by the agency.
    With respect to the compliance lead times set forth in the
    Extension Rule, EPA reasonably determined that obligated
    parties would have adequate notice and time to comply with
    the 2020-2022 standards. For the 2020 renewable fuel
    obligations, obligated parties had more than two-and-a-half
    years’ advance notice of the original 2020 standard before the
    compliance deadline set by the Extension Rule, see 
    85 Fed. Reg. 7,016
     (Feb. 6, 2020); Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at
    5,698—well beyond the 13 months’ lead time the Refineries
    seek. Although EPA issued revised 2020 standards in July
    2022, see 87 Fed. Reg. at 39,602, it modified parties’
    obligations downward, making it easier for obligated parties to
    comply, and thereby justifying the shorter increment of
    compliance lead time following its revision, see ACE, 
    864 F.3d at 718-19
    .
    For the 2021 compliance year, EPA calibrated the
    compliance lead time that it chose based on the renewable fuel
    standards it planned to set. The agency planned to (and
    ultimately did) set the 2021 volumes “at actual renewable fuel
    use in the [United States],” RTC 19 (EPA Response) (J.A. 21);
    see 87 Fed. Reg. at 39,602-03. This approach guards against
    RIN shortages by ensuring that the quantity of RINs already
    generated during the relevant year will be adequate to satisfy
    the renewable fuel standards for that compliance year. See 87
    Fed. Reg. at 39,622; ACE, 
    864 F.3d at
    718-19 (citing 80 Fed.
    Reg. at 77,430, 77,439-40). Given that no further RIN
    generation would be required, and that “all RINs for [the] 2021
    renewable fuel production ha[d] already been generated and all
    gasoline and diesel fuel production ha[d] already occurred,”
    EPA concluded it was not necessary to provide obligated
    parties with a full year of compliance lead time to demonstrate
    25
    compliance with 2021 obligations. RTC 32 (EPA Response)
    (J.A. 34). Instead, by the Refineries’ own count, the Extension
    Rule ultimately provided obligated parties 10 months between
    EPA’s publication of the 2021 standard and their compliance
    reporting deadlines. See Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,698;
    Pets. Br. 24. Notably, EPA had given obligated parties
    approximately eight months’ lead time in the past when setting
    the volumes at actual renewable fuel use—for instance, in the
    rule we considered in ACE, see 
    864 F.3d at 722-23
    ; 80 Fed.
    Reg. at 77,491—and EPA drew on that “past practice” in
    crafting the 2021 timeline, RTC 32 & n.12 (EPA Response)
    (citing, inter alia, 80 Fed. Reg. at 77,512-14) (J.A. 34). The
    agency’s decision to provide a similar timeline under similar
    circumstances was not unreasonable.
    Regarding the 2022 compliance year, the Refineries
    acknowledge that EPA afforded obligated parties at least 12
    months’ lead time, just one month short of the 13-month period
    they request. See Pets. Br. 24; Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at
    5,698; July 2022 Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 39,602-03. The
    Refineries offer no reason why that one-month discrepancy
    renders EPA’s 2022 deadline unreasonable. See Pets. Br. 22-
    24. Moreover, the Rule provided that obligated parties might
    ultimately receive more than 13 months’ lead time for the 2022
    compliance year under the Extension Rule, depending on when
    EPA issues the 2023 renewable fuel standards. See Extension
    Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,698 (setting the 2022 compliance
    deadline as the later of either the next quarterly reporting
    deadline after the 2021 compliance deadline or the effective
    date of the 2023 standards). We thus conclude EPA reasonably
    balanced its statutory responsibility to ensure the Program’s
    annual fuel requirements are met with its need to extend the
    2020-2022 compliance deadlines as part of its efforts to
    mitigate the harm caused by its delay in issuing those
    standards.
    26
    Finally, as for the compliance intervals set by the Rule,
    EPA drew on its relevant experience. See RTC 9 (EPA
    Response) (J.A. 11). As EPA explained, “[o]ur past experience
    administering this program has indicated that, where the RFS
    annual rules have been delayed, [a] 60-day window between
    compliance deadlines is a workable amount of time for
    obligated parties to develop their compliance strategy and
    acquire sufficient RINs to demonstrate compliance.” Id.;
    accord Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,699-700 & n.19.
    EPA further noted that “this amount of time was generally
    sufficient for obligated parties to comply with the 2013-2016
    standards, which had a similar compliance schedule to the one
    finalized in this action.” RTC 9 (EPA Response) (J.A. 11); see
    id. at 46-47 & n.17 (EPA Response) (J.A. 48-49); 80 Fed. Reg.
    at 77,513-14.
    The Refineries counter that a recent Government
    Accountability Office (GAO) Report calls into question
    assumptions about RIN market functionality that EPA relied
    on in crafting the Extension Rule. See Reply Br. 12-13 (citing
    GAO, Renewable Fuel Standard: Actions Needed to Improve
    Decision-Making in the Small Refinery Exemption Program,
    No. GAO-23-105801 (Nov. 3, 2022) (2022 GAO Report));
    Oral Arg. 2:55-3:20, 55:00-40. GAO issued that report after
    EPA promulgated the Extension Rule, however. See 2022
    GAO Report 1; 87 Fed. Reg. at 5,696. And we “judge the
    reasonableness of an agency’s decision on the basis of the
    record before the agency at the time it made its decision.”
    NTCH, Inc. v. FCC, 
    950 F.3d 871
    , 881 (D.C. Cir. 2020) (per
    curiam) (quoting Rural Cellular Ass’n v. FCC, 
    588 F.3d 1095
    ,
    1107 (D.C. Cir. 2009)). Additionally, the report focuses on
    EPA’s policies for resolving small refinery exemption
    petitions, see 2022 GAO Report 1-2, 26, which are not
    challenged here.
    27
    To sum up, we conclude that the 2020-2022 compliance
    lead times and intervals set forth in the Extension Rule are
    neither arbitrary nor capricious. We take no position on
    whether EPA has reasonably mitigated the harm borne by
    obligated parties due to its delayed issuance of the 2020-2022
    standards. Nor do we opine on the lawfulness of EPA’s small
    refinery exemption policies and decisions. Rather, we hold
    simply that the Extension Rule’s compliance schedule is
    reasonable and reasonably explained.
    B.
    That leaves the Refineries’ challenge to the Extension
    Rule’s future compliance schedule.            We refer to this
    component of the Rule as the Post-2022 Provision. It
    establishes that, beginning in 2023, the compliance deadline
    for each year will be the latest of (a) March 31 of the following
    calendar year; (b) the next quarterly reporting deadline after the
    effective date of the subsequent compliance year’s standards;
    or (c) the next quarterly reporting deadline after the compliance
    deadline for the prior compliance year. Extension Rule, 87
    Fed. Reg. at 5,700-01. In effect, this provision automatically
    extends obligated parties’ compliance reporting deadline for a
    given compliance year in the event EPA delays in publishing
    the renewable fuel standards for the following year, or if EPA
    extends the prior year’s compliance deadline.
    The Refineries cast this provision as an “attempt to re-
    write the statute.” Pets. Br. 30. They argue that it “expressly
    anticipates” EPA may miss its statutory deadlines for issuing
    renewable fuel standards in 2023 and beyond, and therefore
    contravenes the Act. Id. at 31.
    That argument breaks down on closer scrutiny. As an
    initial matter, the CAA does not set a deadline for EPA to
    publish the renewable fuel percentage standards beyond
    28
    2023. See 
    42 U.S.C. § 7545
    (o)(2)(B)(ii). Recall that, through
    2022, the Act requires EPA to publish the percentage standards
    for three categories of renewable fuel (total renewable fuel,
    advanced biofuel, and cellulosic biofuel) for a given
    compliance year “no later than November 30” of the preceding
    year. 
    Id.
     § 7545(o)(2)(B)(i). But the Act is silent as to when
    EPA must publish those renewable fuel standards
    thereafter. See id. Instead, beginning in 2023, the Act requires
    EPA to publish the “applicable volumes” of renewable fuel—
    i.e., the minimum volumes of the relevant renewable fuel types
    that must be introduced into the U.S. fuel supply in a given
    year—“no later than 14 months before the first year for which
    such applicable volume will apply.” Id. § 7545(o)(2)(B)(ii)
    (emphasis added). The Refineries identify nothing in the
    Extension Rule that expressly anticipates EPA will fail to meet
    its statutory deadlines to publish those applicable volumes,
    negating the conflict they see between the Extension Rule and
    the Act’s text.
    In any event, even assuming the Extension Rule could be
    read to anticipate that EPA will miss a statutorily prescribed
    deadline, the Refineries’ argument is foreclosed by our
    precedent. Because we have held that EPA may, under certain
    conditions, lawfully issue renewable fuel standards even after
    its statutory deadlines to do so, see ACE, 
    864 F.3d at 718-21
    ,
    Monroe Energy, 
    750 F.3d at 919-20
    ; Nat’l Petrochemical, 630
    F.3d at 154-58, the Post-2022 Provision does not contravene
    the Act by virtue of accounting for that possibility.
    The Refineries next contend that the Post-2022 Provision
    conflicts with the CAA insofar as it enables EPA to provide
    less than the minimum compliance lead time that the Refineries
    claim the Act requires. However, to the extent the provision
    could result in a compression of obligated parties’ time to
    comply should EPA fail to timely issue the renewable fuel
    29
    standards for a given year, that compression does not
    contravene the Act for the same reasons discussed in Part
    III.A.1 supra.
    Finally, the Refineries argue that EPA failed to reasonably
    justify the post-2022 compliance schedule, rendering it
    arbitrary and capricious. They claim EPA’s sole justification
    for the automatic extension feature of the Post-2022 Provision
    is that it is necessary to “ensure that obligated parties know
    [next year’s] obligations before complying with [the current
    year’s] obligation.” Pets. Br. 32 (quoting Extension Rule, 87
    Fed. Reg. at 5,700). Because the compliance schedule they
    claim the statute requires “already achieves” that goal, they
    argue, EPA’s explanation is insufficient. Id.
    The Refineries’ argument is belied by the record. The
    explanation they identify is not the only one EPA provided in
    support of the post-2022 compliance schedule. EPA also stated
    that it will provide greater “regulatory certainty for obligated
    parties” by establishing predetermined extensions for a given
    year’s compliance reporting deadline in the event obligated
    parties are still waiting on EPA to publish the next year’s
    renewable fuel standards. Extension Rule, 87 Fed. Reg. at
    5,701. And EPA justified the particular compliance intervals
    and lead times envisioned by the Post-2022 Provision based on
    its past experience. See RTC 41 (EPA Response) (J.A. 43).
    The Refineries offer no reason why those explanations are
    insufficient or otherwise unreasoned. See Pets Br. 30-32. We
    thus reject the Refineries’ challenge to the Extension Rule’s
    compliance timeline for 2023 onwards.
    * * *
    For the foregoing reasons, we deny the petitions for
    review.
    So ordered.
    RANDOLPH, Senior Circuit Judge, concurring in the
    judgment: We should have dismissed the Refineries’ petitions
    for judicial review for the same reasons we dismissed the
    petitions in Concerned Household Electricity Consumers
    Council v. Environmental Protection Agency, 
    2023 WL 3643436
    (D.C. Cir. May 25, 2023) (per curiam): the Refineries have
    failed to establish their standing to sue. See Sierra Club v. EPA,
    
    292 F.3d 895
    , 899–90 (D.C. Cir. 2002).
    The traditional standing elements are injury-in-fact,
    causation, and redressability. “[U]nless standing is clear from
    the administrative record, the party must submit evidence to
    prove it.” Viasat, Inc. v. Fed. Commc’ns Comm’n, 
    47 F.4th 769
    ,
    781 (D.C. Cir. 2022); Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 899
    ; D.C. Cir. R.
    28(a)(7) (codifying this requirement in our local rules). In this
    context as elsewhere, “barebones” statements do not suffice.
    Twin Rivers Paper Co. v. SEC, 
    934 F.3d 607
    , 613–14 (D.C. Cir.
    2019). To establish standing when it is not self-evident, the
    petitioner “may carry its burden of production by citing any
    record evidence relevant to its claim of standing and, if
    necessary, appending to its filing additional affidavits or other
    evidence sufficient to support its claim.” Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at
    900–01.
    That the Refineries are regulated by EPA’s extension rule
    does not make their standing self-evident. See, e.g., Am.
    Chemistry Council v. Dep’t of Transp., 
    468 F.3d 810
    , 813–15,
    819 (D.C. Cir. 2006). At best, the administrative record suggests
    one harm from EPA’s extension of compliance deadlines:
    increased RIN prices. See, e.g., Joint Appendix 7. But the
    Refineries have not shown that the extension or compression of
    compliance deadlines has caused an injury-in-fact – there is no
    evidence that RIN prices increased after EPA’s rulemaking and
    there is no evidence the Refineries purchased RINs at higher
    prices. Even if RIN prices increased, the Refineries have not
    2
    shown that EPA’s extension rule was the cause.1 See
    Competitive Enter. Inst. v. Fed. Commc’ns Comm’n, 
    970 F.3d 372
    , 381–82, 385 (D.C. Cir. 2020). And even if the Refineries
    could show injury-in-fact and causation, they have not shown
    that setting EPA’s extension rule aside would remedy their
    harms.2
    The majority opinion purports to identify an injury-in-fact
    from two sentences in the administrative record. See Maj. Op.
    13–14. But it was the Refineries’ burden to show injury and
    they have not done so. Sierra Club, 
    292 F.3d at 900
    ; Twin
    Rivers, 
    934 F.3d at 613
    . That in itself “is a sufficient ground to
    dismiss . . . for lack of standing.” Concerned Household Elec.
    Consumers Council, 
    2023 WL 3643436
    , at *2. Moreover, the
    two assertions the majority invokes are in the nature of
    allegations made in comments on the extension rule. See Maj.
    Op. 14; Joint Appendix 14, 17. The statements are not backed
    up with evidence. Under Sierra Club and a long line of cases in
    this circuit, that is not sufficient to establish standing. 
    292 F. 3d at
    898–901. To hold otherwise is to disregard those precedents.
    See Twin Rivers, 
    934 F.3d at 613
     (collecting cases).
    1
    Counsel for the Refineries conceded this point, stating that
    the extension of the compliance deadlines did not increase RIN prices.
    Oral Argument at 2:47–50, Wynnewood Refining Company, LLC, et
    al. v. EPA, No. 22-1015 (consl. 22-1051, 22-1053) (“The thing that
    has caused RIN prices to rise is not the extension [rule].”).
    2
    If we set aside the extension rule, the Refineries would
    likely be immediately out of compliance with EPA’s requirements.
    Compare 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1451
    (a) (Mar. 30, 2021), with 
    40 C.F.R. § 80.1451
    (f)(1)(i) (Jan. 31, 2022). As to redressability, all the
    majority opinion comes up with is the possibility that EPA might offer
    the Refineries some form of relief if their petitions for judicial review
    were granted. Maj. Op. 14–15.